PRESS RELEASE  
 
PRESS/779  
27 September 2016  
 
(16-5095) 
TRADE STATISTICS AND  OUTLOOK  
Trade in 2016 to grow at slowest pace since the financial crisis  
 
World trade will grow more slowly than expected in 2016, expan ding by just 1.7%, well  below the 
April forecast of 2.8%, according to the latest WTO estimates. The forecast for 2017 has also been 
revised, with trade now expected to grow between 1.8% and 3.1%, down from  3.6% previously. 
With expected global GDP growth of 2.2% in 2016, this year would mark the slowest pace of trade 
and output growth since the financial crisis of 2009.  
  
The downgrade follows a sharper than expected 
decline in merchandise trade volumes in the first 
quarter ( -1.1% quarter -on-quarter, as me asured by 
the average of seasonally -adjusted exports and 
imports) and a smaller than anticipated rebound in 
the second quarter (+0.3%).   
  
The contraction was driven by slowing GDP and trade 
growth in developing economies such as China and 
Brazil but also  in North America, which had the 
strongest import growth of any region in 2014 -15 but 
has decelerated since then.  
 
 WTO Director -General Roberto Azevêdo said:  
 
"The dramatic slowing of trade growth is serious 
and should serve as a wake -up call. It is 
particularly concerning in the context of growing 
anti-globalization sentiment.  We need to make 
sure that this does not translate into misguided 
policies that could make the situation much worse, 
not only from the perspective of trade but also for 
job creatio n and economic growth and 
development which are so closely linked to an 
open trading system.  
 
"While the benefits of trade are clear, it is also 
clear that they need to be shared more widely. We 
should seek to build a more inclusive trading 
system that go es further to support poorer MAIN POINTS  
 World merchandise trade volume is 
expected to grow 1.7% in 2016 , 
accompanied by real GDP growth of 
2.2% at market excha nge rates. This 
would be the slowest pace of trade 
and output growth since the financial 
crisis.  
 Trade growth was weaker than 
expected in the first half of 2016  due 
to falling import demand and slowing 
GDP growth in several major 
developing economies as we ll as in 
North America.  
 Trade in 2017 is expected to grow 
between 1.8% and 3.1% , a range 
being provided to reflect  potential 
changes in the relationship between 
trade and output.  
 Certain trade -related indicators have 
improved , including export orders 
and c ontainer port throughput, but 
overall momentum in trade remains 
weak.  PRESS/779  
Page 2 of 11 
 
 
  countries to take part and benefit, as well as entrepreneurs, small companies, and 
marginalised groups in all economies. This is a moment to heed the lessons of history and 
re-commit to openness in trade, which can help to spur  economic growth."  
 
The latest figures are a disappointing development and underline a recent weakening in the 
relationship between trade and GDP growth.  Over the long term trade has typically grown at 1.5 
times faster than GDP, though in  the 1990s world merchandise trade volume  grew about twice as 
fast as world real GDP at market exchange rates. In recent years however, the ratio has slipped 
towards 1:1, below both the peak of the 1990's and the long -term average.  
 
If the revised projection holds, 2016 w ill be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade 
growth and world GDP has fallen below 1:1. Historically strong trade growth has been a sign of 
strong economic growth, as trade has provided a way for developing and emerging economies to 
grow quickly, and strong import growth has been associated with faster growth in developed 
countries.  However the increase of the number of systematically important trading countries and 
the shift in the ratio of trade and GDP growth makes it more difficult to  forecast future trade 
growth. Therefore, the WTO is for the first time provid ing  a range of scenarios for its 2017 trade 
forecast rather than giving specific figures.  As Char t 1 below shows, the current trend in the 
relationship between trade growth and  world GDP is lower than observed over the last three 
decades.  
 
Chart 1: Ratio of world  merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth , 
1981 -2016  
(% change and ratio)  
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, concensus estimates for GDP.0.1
-3.01.02.0
1.01.31.51.81.8
1.52.52.83.23.02.7
1.52.5
1.81.62.5
-0.21.52.02.5
1.82.1
1.61.53.4
1.9
1.01.11.11.1
0.8
-3-2-101234
-15-10-505101520
1981
1982
1983
1984
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1986
1987
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1989
1990
1991
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1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
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2002
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016P
World trade volume growth (left) World GDP growth (left) Ratio of trade growth to GDP growth (right)
 
 
 
Since the WTO's April 2016 forecast was issued, some important downside ris ks have materialized, 
most notably a period of financial turbulence that affected China and other developing market 
economies early in the year, but which has since eased. Recent movements in trade by level of 
development are illustrated by Chart 2, which shows seasonally -adjusted quarterly merchandise PRESS/779  
Page 3 of 11 
 
 
 trade indices in volume terms (i.e. adjusted to account for fluctuations in prices and exchange 
rates.)1   
 
Chart 2: Volume of merchandise exports and imports by level of development, 
2012Q1 -2016Q2  
Seasonally  adjusted volume indices, 2012Q1=100  
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.Exports Imports
9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
World Developed Developing and emerging9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
World Developed Developing and emerging
 
 
Import demand of developing economies fell 3.2% in Q1 before staging a partial recovery of 1.5% 
in Q2.  Meanwhile, developed economies recorded positive import growth of 0.8% in Q1 and 
negative growth of -0.8% in Q2 .  Overall, world imports stagnated in the first half of 2016, falling 
1.0% in Q1 and rising 0.2% in Q2.  This translated into weak demand for exports of both 
developed and developing economies.  For the year -to-date, world trade has been essentially flat,  
with the average of exports and imports in Q1 and Q2 declining 0.3% relative to last year.  
 
These results are largely in line with the signals given by the WTO's World Trade Outlook Indicator 
(WTOI) , a new tool launched in July to provide “real time” info rmation on trends in global trade .  
At that time the WTOI indicated that world merchandise trade might rebound in Q2  but would 
likely remain below trend . 
 
The stagnation of world merchandise trade disguises strong shifts at the regional level, which are 
illustrated by Chart 3.  The most striking feature of this chart is the steep decline in imports of 
resource -exporting regions over the last two years, driven by falling commodity prices and 
declining export revenues.  South America and Other regions (compri sing Africa, the Middle East 
and the Commonwealth of Independent States) arrested their declines in Q2 of 2016 while imports 
of North America and Europe both dipped in the latest quarter.  Meanwhile, Asian imports declined 
by 3.4% in Q1 against a backdrop of concerns about slowing growth in China, before rebounding 
to 1.3% growth in Q2 as these concerns eased. The 3.3% decline in Asian exports in Q1 mirrored 
the drop in Asia on the import side, but this was mostly reversed by a 3.2% rise in exports in Q2.  
 
                                                
1 Quarterly and monthly  WTO short -term trade statistics can be downloaded here: 
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm   PRESS/779  
Page 4 of 11 
 
 
  Chart 3 : Volume of merchandise exports and imports by region, 2012Q1 -2016Q 2 
Seasonally adju sted volume indices, 2012Q1=100  
 
Exports Imports
Source: WTO Secretariat.9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
North America South America Europe
Asia Other9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
North America South America Europe
Asia Other9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
North America South America Europe
Asia Other9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
North America South America Europe
Asia Other
 
 
There are some indications that trade may be picking up in the second half of 2016, although the 
pace of expansion is likely to r emain subdued.  Container port throughput has increased (Chart 4), 
export orders have risen in the United States, and nominal trade flows in US dollar terms have 
stabilized, but numerous risks remain.   
 
The outlook for the remainder of this year and next y ear is affected by a number of uncertainties , 
including financial volatility stemming from changes in monetary policy in developed countries, the 
possibility that growing anti -trade rhetoric will increasingly be reflected in trade policy, and the 
potential  effects of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom, which has increased uncertainty about 
future trading arrangements in Europe, a region where trade growth has been relatively strong .   
 
The UK referendum result did not produce an immediately observable do wnturn in economic 
activity as measured by industrial production or employment; the main impact was a 13% drop in 
the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar and an 11% decline in its value against the 
euro. Effects over the longer term remain to be seen. Economic forecasts for the UK in 2017 range 
from fairly optimistic to quite pessimistic. Our forecast assumes an intermediate case, with a 
growth slowdown next year but not an outright recession.  
 PRESS/779  
Page 5 of 11 
 
 
 Chart 4: Container shipping throughput index, Janu ary 2007 - July 2016  
Seasonally adjusted trend index, 2010=100  
Source:  Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics.80.085.090.095.0100.0105.0110.0115.0120.0125.0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
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Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
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Jan-14
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Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
 
 
Table 1 below summarizes the WTO’s revised trade forecast.  According to these estimates, world 
merchandise trade volume will grow more slowly than world GDP at market exchange rates in 
2016 (1.7% compared to 2.2%)  
 
Exports of developed countries are expected to outpace those of developing economies this year, 
2.1% compared to 1.2%. On the import side, developing countries are expected to register 
sluggish growth  of 0.4% compared to 2.6% for  developed countries. . 
 
The biggest downward revision to imports from our April forecast for 2016 applies to South 
America ( -8.3% compared to -4.5% previously) as the recession in Brazil intensified.  This was 
followed by North America, where import growth  was revised down from 4.1% to 1.9% as GDP 
growth came in below earlier projections.  Asian import growth was also scaled back to 1.6% from 
3.2%, while our forecast for Europe was revised upward from 3.2% to 3.7%.  
 
Export growth in 2016 was downgraded for most regions, with the strongest revisions applied to 
Asia (0.3% compared to 3.4% in April) and North America (0.7% compared to 3.1%). Meanwhile, 
South America's export growth is expected to be stronger than previously forecast (4.4% 
compared 1.9%), benefi tting from favourable exchange rate movements.  Even with the 
downward revision to our estimates, risks to the forecast remain mostly on the downside.  
 
A range of estimates have been provided for 2017 to reflect the increasingly uncertain relationship 
between trade and output growth.  World trade growth could be as high as 3.1% next year if it 
regains some of its earlier dynamism.  However, it could also be as low as 1.8% if the ratio of 
trade growth to GDP growth continues to weaken.  
 PRESS/779  
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  Estimates of expo rt growth range from  1.7% to 2.9% for developed countries and from 1.9% to 
3.4% for developing economies in 2017.  On the import side, developed countries could see trade 
growth of between 1.7% and 2.9%  while developing  countries expand by between 1.8% and 
3.1%.   
 
A number of reasons have been advanced to explain the decline in the ratio of trade growth to 
GDP growth  in recent years , including the changes in the import content of demand, absence of 
trade liberalization , creeping protectionism , a contraction of  global value chains (GVCs),  and 
possibly  the increasing role of the digital economy and e -commerce , but all have likely played a 
role.  Whatever the cause,  the recent run of weak trade, and economic, growth suggests the need 
for a better understanding of changing global economic relationships.  The WTO, and other 
international organizations, are working hard to understand this current evolution and its 
implications for continued growth.  
 
Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2012 -2017 a  
Annual %  change  
 PRESS/779  
Page 7 of 11 
 
 
 
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P
Volume of world merchandise trade 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.7 1.7 1.8 - 3.1
Exports
Developed economies 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.1 1.7 - 2.9
Developing economies 3.8 3.8 3.1 3.2 1.2 1.9 - 3.4
North America 4.5 2.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 - 2.9
South and Central America 0.9 1.2 -1.8 1.3 4.4 3.1 - 5.5
Europe 0.8 1.7 2.0 3.7 2.8 1.8 - 3.1
Asia 2.7 5.0 4.8 3.1 0.3 1.8 - 3.2
Other regions  b 3.9 0.6 -0.1 3.9 2.5 1.5 - 2.6
Imports
Developed economies -0.1 -0.2 3.5 4.6 2.6 1.7 - 2.9
Developing economies 4.8 5.6 2.9 1.1 0.4 1.8 - 3.1
North America 3.2 1.2 4.7 6.5 1.9 1.9 - 3.1
South and Central America 0.7 3.6 -2.2 -5.8 -8.3 2.2 - 3.7
Europe -1.8 -0.3 3.2 4.3 3.7 1.8 - 3.1
Asia 3.7 4.8 3.3 1.8 1.6 2.0 - 3.3
Other regions  b 9.9 3.5 -0.5 -6.0 -2.8 0.6 - 1.0
Real GDP at market exchange rates 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5
Developed economies 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.7
Developing economies 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.4 3.4 4.1
North America 2.3 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.6 2.3
South and Central America 2.9 3.4 1.0 -1.0 -1.6 1.4
Europe -0.2 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5
Asia 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9
Other regions  b 3.9 2.6 2.6 0.9 1.4 2.6
a Figures for 2016 and 2017 are projections.
b Other regions comprise the Africa, Commonwealth of Independent States and Middle East.
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, concensus estimates for GDP. 
 
It should be noted that the trade forecasts in Table 1 relate to changes in the quantity of goods 
traded rather than changes in their dollar value.  In 2015, merchandise trade volumes continued 
to grow slowly despite the sharp 14% decline in th e dollar value of world trade, which was largely 
due to the appreciation of the US dollar.  As chart 5 below shows, the dollar has started to 
depreciate  again in the first half of 2016 , with an inverse effect on values of traded goods, 
particularly commodi ties such as oil.  If this trend continues for the remainder of the year, world 
merchandise trade growth in dollar terms could exceed trade growth in volume terms in 2016.  
Trade developments in current dollar terms are shown for selected economies in Char t 6. 
 
 PRESS/779  
Page 8 of 11 
 
 
  Chart 5: Effective exchange rates and crude oil prices, Jan. 2012 - Jul. 2016  
(Indices, January 2012=100)  
 
Source: BIS for effective exchange rates, IMF International Financial Statistics for oil prices.60708090100110120130140
020406080100120140160180200
12M1
12M3
12M5
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Crude oil price (left scale) US dollar nominal effective exchange rate, broad (right scale)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 PRESS/779  
Page 9 of 11 
 
 
 Chart 6: Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2012 -
July 2016  
(Billion dollars)  
 
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China (August) Rep. KoreaUnited States Japan
European Union (extra trade) France
Germany United Kingdom050100150200250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
020406080100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
050100150200250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
010203040506070
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
020406080100120140160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
010203040506070
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
050100150200250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
0102030405060
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
 PRESS/779  
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  Chart 6 (continued): Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, 
January 2012 -July 2016  
(Billion dollars)  
 
 
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Brazil (August) Russian Fed.
Singapore (August) Chinese Taipei (August)
Malaysia ThailandIndia (August) South Africa051015202530
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
0102030405060
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
024681012
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
051015202530
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
0510152025
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
 
 PRESS/779  
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 Chart 6 (continued): Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, 
January 2012 -July 2016  
(Billion dollars)  
 
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Turkey Indonesia (August)
Memo: European Union (intra trade) Memo: European Union (total trade)ArgentinaCanada
MexicoAustralia (August)
0100200300400500600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports0246810
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
010203040
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Exports
Imports
050100150200250300350400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 
 
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