PRESS/ 909 
 
5 October 2022  
(22-7485) Page: 1/11 
    
 
 
PRESS RELEASE  
E M B A R G O  
N O T  F O R  P U B L I C A T I O N ,  O R  D I S T R I B U T I O N  B Y  N E W S  A G E N C I E S  U N T I L  
1 2 : 0 0  H  G E N E V A  T I M E  5  O C T O B E R  2 0 2 2  
 
TRADE STATISTICS  AND OUTLOOK  
Trade growth to slow sharply in 2023 as global economy faces 
strong  headwinds  
World trade  is expected to lose momentum  in the 
second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as 
multiple shocks weigh on the global economy . WTO 
economists now predict  global merchandise trade 
volume s will grow by 3.5% in 2022 —slightly better 
than the 3.0% forecast in April. For 2023, however, 
they foresee a 1.0% increase—down sharply from the 
previous estimate  of 3.4%. 
 
Import  demand is expected  to soften as growth slows 
in major economies for different  reasons . In Europe , 
high energy prices  stemming from the Russia -Ukraine 
war will squeez e household spending  and raise 
manufacturing costs. In the U nited States , monetary 
policy tightening  will hit interest -sensitive spending  in 
areas such as housing , motor vehicles  and fixed 
investment . China  continues to grapple with  COVID -19 
outbreaks  and production disruptions  paired with  weak 
external demand . Finally , growing import bills for fuels, 
food and fertilizers could lead to food insecurity  and 
debt distress  in developing  countries . 
 
"Policymakers  are confronted with  unenviable choices 
as they try to find an optimal balance among tackling  
inflation , maintaining full employment , and advancing 
important policy goals such as  transition ing to clean 
energy . Trade is a vital tool for enhancing the global 
supply of goods and services, as well as for lowering 
the cost of getting to net -zero carbon emissions ," 
Director -General Ngozi Okonjo -Iweala said . MAIN POINTS  
• World merchandise trade volume is 
expected to grow 3.5% in 2022 before 
slowing  to 1.0% in 2023  (revised down 
from 3.4%) .  
• World GDP at market exchange rates 
will increase by  2.8% in 2022  and by 
2.3% in 202 3 (revised down from 3.2%) . 
• Trade and output  will be  weighed down 
by several related shocks, including the 
war in Ukraine, high energy prices, 
inflation , and monetary tightening . 
• Merchandise exports of the CIS region 
fell 10.4% quarter -on-quarter in Q2 
while imports plunged  21.7%.  
• The Middle East will have  the strongest 
trade volume growth  of any region in 
2022 on both the export side  (14.6%)  
and the import side (11.1%).  
• The value of merchandise trade in U.S. 
dollars was up 17% year -on-year in the 
second quarter of 2022.  
• Energy prices rose  78%  year -on-year in 
August while food prices were up  11%, 
grain  prices  were up  15% and fertilizer  
prices were up  60%.  PRESS/ 909 
 
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  "While trade r estrictions  may be a tempting response to the supply vulnerabilities that have been 
exposed by the shocks of the past two years , a retrenchment of global supply chains  would  only 
deepen  inflation ary pressures , leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards 
over time. What we need is a deeper, more diversified an d less concentrated base for producing 
goods and services . In addition to  boost ing economic growth , this would contribute to  supply 
resilience and  long-term price stability by mitigating exposure to extreme weather events  and 
other localized disruptions . The success of the WTO's  12th Ministerial Conference  (MC12)  in June is 
proof that with sufficient political will, members can cooperate and  move forward  together ." 
 
The new WTO  forecast estimates  world  GDP at market exchange rates  will grow by  2.8% in 2022 
and 2.3% in 2023  — the latter is 1. 0 percentage points lower than what was previously projected . 
 
In their April forecast, released only weeks after the start of the war in Ukraine,  WTO economists 
had to rely on simulations to generate reason able growth assumptions , in the absence of hard 
data about the war's impact . As events have unfolded, the WTO's GDP projections  for 2022 turned 
out to be broadly correct . The estimates for 2023 , however,  now appear overly optimistic , as 
energy prices have skyrocketed, inflation has become more broad -based , and the war shows no 
sign of letting up . 
 
If the current  forecast is realized , trade growth will slow sharply but remain positive in 2023 . It 
should be noted that there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the forecast  due to  
shifting monetary polic y in advanced economies  and the unpredictab le nature of the  Russia-
Ukraine  war. Chart  1 shows quarterly world merchandise trade  volume  through 2023 with error 
bands around the forecast  period . If current  assumptions  hold, trade growth in 2022  could  end up 
between 2.0% and 4.9%. If the downside risks materialize , trade growth in 2023 could then be as 
low as -2.8%. If the surprises are on the upside, however, trade growth next year  could be  high as 
4.6%. Trade could also finish  outside of th ese bounds  if any of the underlying assumptions 
change.  
 
The Ukraine crisis has pushed up prices for primary commodities, particularly fuels, food, and 
fertilizers. These are illustrated by Chart 2, which shows global commodity price indices on the left 
and natural gas prices by region on the right. In August, energy prices were up 78% year -on-year, 
led by natural gas , which was up 250%. The 36% increase in the price of crude oil over the same 
period was small by comparison but still significant for consumers.  
 PRESS/ 909 
 
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  Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise trade, 2015Q1 -2023Q4  
Seasonally -adjusted volume index, 2015=100  
 
 
Note:  Each shaded region represents a + -0.5 standard error band around the central forecast.  
Source:  WTO and UNCTAD, WTO Secretariat estimates.  
Natural gas  prices have  diverged strongly across regions , with European prices up 350% year-on-
year in August . U.S. prices  were up 120% in the same month but  remain ed well below European 
levels ( US$ 8.80 per million Btu compared to US$ 70.00 in Europe) . European demand for liquified 
natural gas (LNG) to supplement  reduced supplies  from the Russia n Federation  has also pushed up 
energy costs in Asia, where  the price of  LNG was  up 87% in August . European gas prices  have 
moderated recently , falling 34% between 31 August and 23 September, but they remain high by  
historical standards . Oil prices have also receded  from recent  peaks, possibly indicating  weaker 
global demand rather than an improved supply situation.  
 
Chart 2: Primary commodity prices, January 2019 - August 2022  
Index 2019=100 and US$ per million Btu  
 
Source:  World Bank.  
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Natural Gas, JapanPRESS/ 909 
 
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  Food prices in US  dollar  terms have also r isen sharply due to the fact that  the Russia n Federation  
and Ukraine are  both major suppliers  of grains and fertilizer s. This raises food security concerns in 
many  countries , particularly low -income ones that tend to spend a large fraction  of househo ld 
income on food . Many currencies have also fallen  against the dollar  in recent months , making food  
and fuel s even more expensive in national currency  terms . 
 
Global grain prices in August were up 15% year-on-year while  wheat alone was up 18%. This 
marks an improvement over April, when  grains had increase d 33% and wheat  had risen  76%. 
Potentially m ore worrying for the future are fertilizer  prices , which were up 60% year -on-year in 
August after nearly tripl ing since 2020.  Reduced  fertilizer imports and use could reduce  crop yields 
and increase  food insecurity next year . 
 
While the  supply  situation  for grains may not be as dire as some had feared at the start of  the 
Ukraine war, it is still a cause for concern . This is illustrated by Chart 3 , which  shows the estimated 
value and volume of world trade in wheat . In July the volume of traded wheat  was down nearly 
20% compared to March but only 4% year-on-year. Underlying data suggest that some countries 
have responde d to higher prices by reducing consumption and import s. Since March , quantities of 
imported wheat  are down year -on-year in Bolivia ( -69%), Jordan ( -41%), Zambia ( -38%), Nigeria 
(-37%), and Ecuador ( -30%) , among others . 
 
Chart 3: Estimated value and volume of world trade in wheat, January 2020 - July 2022 
(Index, January 2020=100)  
 
Source:  WTO estimates based on partner statistics.  
 
Chart 4 below shows quarterly merchandise trade volume developments  and projections by region 
from 2019 to 2023. The CIS region suffered a strong  10.4% quarter -on quarter export decline in 
Q2 of 2022 as sanctions against the Russian Federation  started to bite . Exports from South 
America, Africa and especially the Middle East beat expectat ions in the first half of the year , 
helping to make up for reduced shipments  from the CIS region . Exports from North America, 
Europe and Asia  in the first half of the year were broad ly in line with expectations . 
 
On the import side, the CIS region plunged  21.7% during the second quarter  of 2022 , probably as 
a result of the Russia n Federation 's exclusion from the SWIFT payments system. Imports by other 
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  resource rich  regions (South America, Africa and the Middle East ) came in stronger than expected, 
as higher commodity prices inflated export revenues , allowing countries in these regions to import 
more. North America and Europe recorded stronger than expected import  growth in the first half of 
2022 but Asian imports stagnated , registering  year-on-year growth of just 0.7% in the first half . 
 
Chart 4: Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2019Q1 -2023Q4  
Volume index, 2019=100  
 
a. Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
b. Refers to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former 
member  States .  
Source:  WTO and UNCTAD.  
 
Table 1 summarizes the revised annual trade projections  for 2022 an d 2023 . Note that a nnual  
trade volume  statistics  may diverge  slightly from  quarterly statistics  due to differences in 
methodology, but in general they track each other quite closely . 
 
The WTO 's current forecast of  3.5% growth in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2022 is 
close to but slightly stronger than the previous estimate  of 3.0% from last April, but the difference  
is mostly  explained by statistical revisions  and the availability of new data . The Middle East is 
expecte d to record the strongest export growth of any WTO region this year (14.6 %), followed by 
Africa (6.0 %), North America  (3.4%) , Asia (2.9 %), Europe (1.8 %) and South America (1.6 %). In 
contrast, CIS exports should decline by 5.8% for the year.  The Middle East  also had the fastest 
trade volume growth on the import side  (11.1% ), followed by North America (8.5 %), Africa 
(7.2%), South America (5.9 %), Europe (5.4 %), Asia (0.9 %) and CIS ( -24.7%). 
 
One notable feature of Table 1 is the resilience of  trade growth  in the Middle East and Africa 
in 2022. These regions should  see small declines  in exports next year , but import s will remain 
strong , each set to grow by 5.7%. The CIS region is expected to po st a large  growth rate for 
imports next year , over 9% , but if this happens it  will be mostly due to  the reduced  base for 2022.  
Other regions can expect modest growth in both exports and imports  in 2023 . 
 
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2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
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2023Q3
2023Q4Exports
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CIS b Africa Middle East
Asia60708090100110120130
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  Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2018 -2023a 
Annual % change  
 
a. Figures for 2022 and 2023 are projections.  
b. Refers to average of exports and imports . 
c. Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
d. Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain assoc iate and former 
member States.  
Note:  These projections incorporate mixed -data sampling (MIDAS) techniques for selected countries to 
take advantage of higher -frequency data such as container throughput and financial risk indices.  
Sources:  WTO for trade, con sensus estimates for GDP.  
 
These projections incorporate mixed -data sampling (MIDAS) techniques that use higher frequency 
data to improve forecasting accuracy . Specifically, monthly data on container throughput are 
exploited to capture the effects of port congestion and supply disruptions in the United States and 
China. Taking this information into account ha d a small positive impact on imports by North 
America and Asia in 2022, reflecting the clearance of  backlogs at U.S. West Coast ports and 
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022P 2023P
Volume of world merchandise trade b 3.2 0.5 -5.2 9.7 3.5 1.0
Exports
North America 3.9 0.4 -8.9 6.5 3.4 1.4
South America c 0.6 -1.3 -4.9 5.6 1.6 0.3
Europe 1.8 0.6 -7.8 7.9 1.8 0.8
CIS d 4.1 -0.1 -1.7 0.5 -5.8 3.3
Africa 3.2 -0.4 -8.1 5.2 6.0 -1.0
Middle East 4.8 -1.3 -8.9 1.4 14.6 -1.5
Asia 3.7 0.9 0.5 13.3 2.9 1.1
Imports
North America 5.1 -0.6 -5.9 12.3 8.5 0.8
South America c 4.6 -1.8 -10.7 25.4 5.9 -1.0
Europe 1.9 0.3 -7.3 8.3 5.4 -0.7
CIS d 4.0 8.3 -5.5 9.1 -24.7 9.4
Africa 5.5 3.1 -14.7 7.7 7.2 5.7
Middle East -4.4 11.2 -10.1 8.4 11.1 5.7
Asia 5.0 -0.4 -1.0 11.1 0.9 2.2
Real GDP at market exchange rates 3.2 2.6 -3.4 5.8 2.8 2.3
North America 2.8 2.1 -3.8 5.5 1.7 1.0
South America c 0.4 -0.6 -6.9 7.2 3.7 1.6
Europe 2.1 1.7 -5.8 5.8 2.7 0.9
CIS d 3.1 2.6 -2.5 4.9 -3.2 -2.1
Africa 3.2 3.0 -2.5 5.1 3.5 3.6
Middle East 1.6 1.3 -4.5 3.5 5.7 3.4
Asia 4.9 4.0 -0.9 6.2 3.7 4.2
Memo: Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
Volume of merchandise exports 5.4 0.0 -1.8 4.9 7.1 3.8
Volume of merchandise imports 4.9 3.1 -10.9 9.5 6.6 8.9
Real GDP at market exchange rates 4.6 4.9 0.4 2.1 4.4 4.4PRESS/ 909 
 
- 7 - 
 
  increased  container handling in Chin ese ports  following pandemic -related stoppages earlier in the 
year. 
 
Risks to the forecast are numerous and inter -related. Major central banks are alread y raising 
interest  rates in a bid to  tame inflati on but overshooting on tightening  could trigger  recession s in 
some countries , which would weigh on imports . Alternative ly, central  banks might not do enough 
to bring  inflation  down , possibly  necessitating  stronger  interventions  in the future . High interest 
rates in advanced economies could  trigger capital flight from emerging economies , unsettling  
global financial flows . Escalation of th e Russia -Ukraine war could  also undermine business and 
consumer confidence  and destabilize the global ec onomy . An underappreciated risk  would be the 
decoupling of major  economies  from global supply chains. This would exacerbate supply shortages  
in the near term  and reduce productivity  over the longer term . 
Trade developments in value terms  
The WTO's trade forecast s are issued together with quarterly and annual trade statistics in nominal  
U.S. dollar terms. These can be downloaded from the WTO's online database at stats.wto.org . 
 
Chart 5 below shows year-on-year growth in merchandise  exports  over the last th ree quarters  in 
value terms .  It also compares the value of exports  in the first half of 2022 to exports  in the first 
half of 2019 , before the start of the pandemic. It shows that t otal merchandise trade was up 17% 
year-on-year in the second quarter  of 202 2, as compared to  22% year-on-year in the fourth 
quarter  of 2021. Trade in the first half of  2022 was also up 32% compared to 2019. The main 
takeaway is that  because of changes in prices,  merchandise trade values  are growing at double 
digit rate s even as trade growth in volume terms  remains  in the low single digits . 
 
Chart 5: Year -on-year growth in world merchandise exports through 2022Q2  
% change in US$ values  
 
Source:  WTO/UNCTAD.  
 
WTO quarterly statistics on commer cial services trade for the second quarter have not been 
released yet, but monthly data through July provide an indication of  trends for major economies 
(Chart 6). Exports of t ravel and transport services rebounded strongly in many countries  as 
pandemic -related restriction s have eased . China is an exception, with travel spending  held back by 
the country's zero -COVID  policy . Exports of o ther commercial services (a category that includes 
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- 8 - 
 
  financial and business services) grew at a modest pace , partly due to the fact that they did not 
decline much  during the pandemic.  
 
Chart 6: Year -on-year growth in commercial services exports by category, January -
July 2022  
% change in US$ terms  
 
Source:  WTO estimates based on national statistics.  
Supplemental  indicators  
The WTO tracks  a number of  indicators to identify current trends in merchandise and commercial 
services trade. Some  of these are presented below to provide additional context to the forecast.  
 
Purchasing managers' indices  (PMIs) are monthly  economic indicators based on business  surveys . 
J.P. Morgan  aggregate s PMIs from over 40 countries into a global manufacturing PMI, with values 
greater than 50 indicating  expansion and values less than 50 denoting contraction (Chart 7). The 
headline PMI index fell to a 26 -month low of 50.3 in August , just above the threshold value of 50 
separating expansion from contraction . Meanwhile, the sub-index representing new export orders 
fell to 47.0,  signalling  contraction.  This suggests that global manufacturing activity has stalled , and 
that goods trade will continue to slow in the coming months . 
 
Other sub -indices of the PMI cast light on  the state of global supply chains . An index  representing 
input price s fell from 71.6 in April to 61.1 in August . Another  index  of final goods prices dropped 
from 63.8 to 56.7 over the same period . Together, these suggest that inflationary pressures , while 
still high,  may have peaked.  Delivery times also shortened in August and stocks of finished goods 
rose. A few months ago , these would have been seen as positive indications that supply chain 
pressures were easing , but today they could signal that global demand  is weakening . 
 
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  Chart 7: Global Purchasing Managers Indices, January 2018 - August 2022  
(Diffusion index, base = 50)  
 
Note:  Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.  
Source:  J.P. Morgan and S&P Global.  
 
The RWI/ISL container throughput index  tracks global goods trade quite closely . Although the 
index  remain ed near its all-time high in July, it has been mostly flat since October  2020. 
Throughput of Chinese ports dipped in the spring  due to pandemic -related lockdowns , but traffic 
rebounded again after  these measures were relaxed . The decline  in China was partly compensated 
by increased container handling at U.S. ports, which had previously  experienc ed severe 
congestion.  Overall, the index suggest s continued stagnation  in merchandise trade.  
 
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  Chart 8: RWI/ISL global container throughput index, January 2015 -July 2022  
Index 2015=100  
 
Note:  The index is based on data gathered from 94 ports accounting for 64 percent of global container 
traffic.  
Source:  Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics.  
 
The WTO does not forecast services trade, but Chart 6 shows  that travel and transport are its most 
dynamic components. This is backed up by data on international flights from the OpenSky network  
(Chart 9) . Daily commercial  flights (including those within t he European Union) finally exceeded  
pre-pandemic level s this summer but in late August they  turned down slightly. Whether this pause 
is temporary o r long-lasting remains to be seen.  
 
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  Chart 9: International commercial flights, 1 January 2020 — 22 August 2022  
Index, week of 1 January = 100, 7 -day moving average  
 
Source:  OpenSky Network and WTO secretariat calculations.  
 
 
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