Final report:  Risk of lumpy 
skin disease via fresh (chilled 
or frozen) bovine skeletal 
muscle meat from applicant 
countries  
Addendum to the Fresh (chilled or frozen) beef and beef products from Japan, 
the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu – final review  
December 2023  
 
 Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
ii © Commonwealth of Australia 2023 
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Cataloguing data  
This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: DAFF 2023, Final report:  
Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh (chilled or frozen) bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant 
countries . Addendum to the Fresh (chilled or frozen) beef and beef products from Japan, the 
Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu – final review , Department of Agriculture, 
Fisheries and Forestry , Canberra,  December 2023 . 
This publication is available through  Animal import risk analyses - DAFF (agriculture.gov.au)  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601  
Telephone 1800 900 090  
Web agriculture.gov.au  
Disclaimer  
The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  has exercised due care 
and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of 
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry , its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence and for 
any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying on any of the 
information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.  
Acknowledgement of Country  
We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of Australia and their continuing connection to land and sea, waters, 
environment and community. We pay our respects to the Traditional Custodians of the lands we live and work on, their 
culture, and their Elders p ast and present.  
 
  
Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
iii Contents  
Summary  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 1 
1 Introduction  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........................  3 
1.1 Purpose of this addendum  ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 3 
1.2 Scope and commodity definition  ................................ ................................ ........................  4 
2 Background  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................  5 
3 Method ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 6 
3.1 Entry assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ .................  6 
3.2 Exposure assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........  6 
3.3 Estimation of the likelihood of entry and exposure  ................................ ............................  7 
3.4 Consequence assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 7 
3.5 Risk estimation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................  8 
4 Technical information  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........  9 
4.1 Agent properties  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................  9 
4.2 Epidemiology  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................  9 
4.3 Pathogenesis  ................................ ................................ ................................ .....................  10 
4.4 Transmission in skeletal muscle meat  ................................ ................................ ...............  10 
4.5 Current biosecurity measures  ................................ ................................ ...........................  12 
5 Risk Assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................  13 
5.1 Entry assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............  13 
5.2 Exposure assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ ........  14 
5.3 Estimate of the likelihood of entry and exposure  ................................ .............................  14 
5.4 Consequence assessment  ................................ ................................ ................................ . 15 
5.5 Risk estimation  ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................  17 
6 Conclusion  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................  18 
References  ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 19 
Figures  
Figure 1 Matrix for combining qualitative likelihoods  ................................ ................................ ............  7 
Figure 2  Likely consequences matrix  ................................ ................................ ................................ .......  8 
Figure 3 Risk estimation matrix  ................................ ................................ ................................ ...............  8 Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
1 Summary  
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a significant  animal disease that is exotic to Australia and has potential to 
cause national socio -economic consequences and production losses to the Australian beef and dairy 
cattle and buffalo industries . 
Australia’s review of biosecurity import conditions for the importation of Fresh (chilled or frozen) 
beef and beef products from Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu  
(the beef review ) was published in August 2017 (Department of Agriculture and Water Resources 
2017) . The beef review  considered market access for fresh beef and beef products1 for human 
consumption from Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu , referred 
to as applicant countries . 
The beef review  recommended that risk management for LSD was necessary for beef and beef 
products for human consumption from the applicant countries . It concluded that certification of 
country freedom from LSD was considered sufficient, reasonable and practical to address the risk of 
importation of  LSD virus  (LSDV ) in fresh beef and beef products.  
LSD has not been reported in the applicant countries  and is a nationally notifiable or reportable 
disease in each of these jurisdictions. However, there have been significant changes in the global 
distribution of LSD since the beef review  was published. T he Department of Agriculture, Fisheries 
and Forestry (the department) has conducted a further analysis of LSDV as a possible hazard that 
may be transmitted by fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat.  
This addendum  to the beef review considers  whether the requirement for certification of country 
freedom from LSD for fresh beef and beef products in Australia’s current import conditions is 
necessary to achieve  Australia’s appropriate level of protection (ALOP) from LSD. It considers  
available scientific evidence (including recently published scientific research), international 
standards, relevant processes and production methods , and relevant inspection, sampling and 
testing methods . 
Specifically, this addendum  assesses the potential LSD risk associated with meat  flesh2 derived 
exclusively from bovine3 skeletal muscle (fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat) . It review s current 
science relating to  LSDV as a hazard that may be transmitted in fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat in 
light of accepted international standards for the production of meat for human consumption . In the 
absence of evidence specific to other bovine carc ase tissues, i t does not consider the LSD risk 
 
1 Beef and beef products in the beef review were defined as meat, bone and offal from domesticated American 
bison ( Bison bison ), buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis —water buffalo or domestic Asian water buffalo), or cattle ( Bos 
taurus  and Bos indicus ), as fresh (chilled or frozen) beef and beef products derived from fresh beef for human 
consumption. Offal was considered the heart, oesophagus, organs of the abdominal cavity (other than 
reproductive organs), the muscular tissues of the head, tissues of the diaphragm, the tail, and tendons.  
2 Meat flesh  is “skeletal muscle of any slaughtered animal, and any attached rind, fat, connective tissue, nerve, 
blood and blood vessels.  
3 Bovine  animals  are defined as domesticated American bison ( Bison bison ), buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis —water 
buffalo or domestic Asian water buffalo), or cattle ( Bos taurus  and Bos indicus ).  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
2 associated with the importation of bovine -derived carcase tissues that were excluded from the scope 
of the beef review as well as bovine -derived bone and offal, which were included in the definition of 
beef and beef products for the purposes of the beef re view  (Department of Agriculture and Water 
Resources 2017) . 
It finds that the overall risk of LSDV associated with the import of fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat  
for human consumption is very low and achieves Australia’s ALOP with respect to animal biosecurity 
risk associated with that agent. This addendum concludes that specific biosecurity risk management 
measures are not justified for LSDV when bovine skeletal muscle meat is imported for human 
consumption into Australia from applicant countries. The final report recommends that c ountry 
freedom certification for LSD for import of fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant 
countries is not required to achieve Australia’s ALOP.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
3 1 Introduction  
A rigorous, evidence -based and consultative process, consistent  with Australia’s international 
obligations, has been established by the Australian Government to assess countries  seeking market 
access to Australia for fresh beef and beef products.  
Australia’s  review of biosecurity import conditions for the importation of Fresh (chilled or frozen) 
beef and beef products from Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu  
(the beef review ) was published in August 2017  (Department of Agriculture and Water Resources 
2017) . The beef review considered m arket access for fresh beef and beef products for human 
consumption from the above specified countries, referred to here as applicant countries . 
The beef review and this addendum meet the requirements of Australia’s Biosecurity Act 2015  and 
follow procedures that align with those specified by the World Organisation for Animal Health 
(WOAH ). 
The risk assessment procedure advised in the WOAH Terrestrial  Animal Health Code (Terrestrial 
Code) is consistent with the process defined in Australian legislation. Australia’s appropriate level of 
protection (ALOP) from biosecurity risk is defined in the Biosecurity Act 2015  as ‘a high level of 
sanitary and phytosanitary protection aimed at reducing biosecurity risks to a very low level, but not 
to zero’.  
The beef review  noted that lumpy skin disease ( LSD) was not present in the applicant countries , so a 
full risk assessment was not conducted for that disease.  It concluded: “There is scientific evidence 
that [ lumpy skin disease  virus ( LSDV )] may be present in and/or transmitted via fresh beef or beef 
products. There is no evidence that [LSDV] is present in Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the 
United States and Vanuatu. Therefore , further risk assessment is not required ; however, risk 
management is necessary. Certification of country freedom from LSD is considered sufficient, 
reasonable and practical to address the risk of importation of [LSDV] in fresh beef and beef products 
from Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and Vanuatu” . 
1.1 Purpose of this addendum  
LSD has never been reported in any of the applicant countries and  remains a nationally notifiable or 
reportable disease in these jurisdictions. However, t here have been significant changes in the global 
distribution of LSD since the beef review was published , further developments in scientific research, 
and relevant changes to the WOAH Terrestrial Code . Consequently, the department has conducted 
this analysis of risks of LSDV transmission through  fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat.  
This addendum  provides an updated review of the biosecurity risks of LSD associated with  fresh  
bovine  skeletal muscle meat (as defined in Section 1.2) that is imported for human consumption into 
Australia  from applicant countries . This addendum  should be read in conjunction with the beef 
review . Unless otherwise stated, the definitions and methods used in this addendum are consistent 
with those of the beef review.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
4 1.2 Scope and commodity definition  
This document is an addendum  to the beef review but ha s a narrower scope . It assesses the potential 
LSD risk associated with fresh (chilled or frozen) meat  flesh4 derived exclusively from bovine5 skeletal 
muscle (fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat) . 
This addendum  does not evaluate risks associated with carcase components other than  fresh  bovine 
skeletal muscle prepared as meat for human consumption , such as bone and offal . There was 
insufficient evidence to consider other carcase components as equivalent to fresh bovine skeletal 
muscle  meat  from a biosecurity risk perspective.  
 
4 Meat flesh is defined as “skeletal muscle of any slaughtered animal, and any attached rind, fat, connective 
tissue, nerve, blood and blood vessels ”. 
5 Bovines are defined as domesticated American bison ( Bison bison ), buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis —water buffalo or 
domestic Asian water buffalo), or cattle ( Bos taurus  and Bos indicus ). Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
5 2 Background  
LSD is an infectious viral disease that often occurs in epidemic form. Clinical disease is characterised 
by fever and the eruption of nodules in the skin, internal lesions and sometimes death.  
LSDV belong s to the genus Capripoxvirus  of the family Poxviridae  (Skinner et al. 2011) . 
LSD mainly affects cattle, with occasional cases in Asian water buffalo ( Bubalis  bubalis ). The role of 
species, other than cattle and buffalo, in the epidemiology of the disease is considered insignificant.  
Before 2012, the distribution of LSD was limited to Africa and parts of the Middle East. LSD then 
spread throughout the Middle East,  the Republic of  Türkiye , Cyprus, eastern Europe, the Balkans and 
the Russian Federation. Since 2019, LSD has spread throughout the Asian continent, ranging from 
India to China, as well as extending through southern Asia where it has been reported in Bangladesh, 
Taiwan, Vietnam, Bhutan, Hong Kong, Nepal and Myanmar. In 2021, LSD spread further into 
Cambodia, Thailand and Malays ia. In 2022 , cases were reported in Indonesia, Singapore and 
Pakistan. The disease may continue to spread globally, including throughout South -East Asian 
countries  (Department of Agriculture 2022; Tuppurainen, Alexandrov & Beltrán -Alcrudo 2017) . 
LSD is a longstanding WOAH -listed disease of international significance in the trade of animals and 
animal products  (WOAH 2022b) . Infection due to LSDV has never occurred in Australia (AHA 2022b) . 
In Australia , LSD is nationally notifiable and is currently classified as a Category 3 disease  in the 
Emergency Animal Disease Response Agreement (EADRA) , which are diseases with the potential to 
cause significant national socio -economic consequences through impacts on international trade, 
market disruptions involving two or more states and severe production losses to affected industries. 
Category 3 diseas es have minimal or no effect on human health or the environment  (AHA 2022a) . Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
6 3 Method  
The method used in this addendum followed the approach used in the beef review for hazards 
requiring risk assessment. Briefly, this risk assessment evaluated the likelihood and the biological and 
economic consequences of entry, establishment and spread of LSDV. This involved an evaluation of:  
• the likelihood of LSDV entering Australia via imported bovine skeletal muscle meat (entry 
assessment)  
• the likelihood of susceptible animals being exposed to and infected with LSDV via imported bovine 
skeletal muscle meat (exposure assessment)  
• the likelihood of significant outbreaks occurring due to exposure (part of the consequence 
assessment)  
• the potential impacts of any significant outbreaks (part of the consequence assessment).  
3.1 Entry assessment  
The entry assessment describes the biological pathways necessary for importation to introduce 
pathogenic agents into the importing country and estimat es the probability of that complete process 
occurring. It considers biological factors of LSDV  and the species of origin; country factors including 
prevalence and animal health systems in the country of export; and commodity factors such as the 
quantity to be imported, testing, treatment and/or processing.  
The minimum requirement for the entry assessment was considered to be equivalen t to Australian 
standards and legislation for sourcing of domesticated bison, buffalo or cattle, the production of beef 
and beef products for human consumption and their storage and transportation , including the : 
• Australian Standard for the Hygienic Production and Transportation of Meat and Meat Products 
for Human Consumption (2007) (Australian Meat Standard) (FRSC 2007) . 
• Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) requirements for the importation of beef and beef 
products for human consumption –effective 1 March 2010 (Australian BSE requirements) (FSANZ 
2010) . 
• Imported Food Control Act 1992 which requires imported food to comply with the Australia New 
Zealand Food Standards Code and not pose a risk to human health.  
A qualitative likelihood was assigned to describe the likelihood of LSDV  entering Australia in fresh 
bovine skeletal muscle meat  imported for human consumption.  
3.2 Exposure assessment  
The e xposure assessment describes the biological pathways necessary for exposure of susceptible 
animals to the hazard from the imported product and  estimat es the probability of the exposure 
occurring. It considers biological factors of LSDV ; importing country factors such as the presence of 
competent vectors, human and animal demographics; geographical and environmental 
characteristics; and commodity factors such as quantity to be imported, end use and disposal 
practices. In this addendum, the e xposure assessment estimate d the qualitative likelihood of Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
7 susceptible animals in Australia being directly exposed to and infected with the disease agent 
introduced via contaminated fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat.  
The method for exposure assessment in the beef review considered the possibility of susceptible 
animals being exposed to contaminated waste products derived from beef or beef products. As LSD 
can be transmitted mechanically through insect vectors, this addendum  also considered the 
possibility of transmission through insect s becoming  contaminated through contact w ith 
contaminated waste products, and then expos ing at least one susceptible animal. Exposure groups 
considered were domestic and feral cattle and b uffalo.  
3.3 Estimation of the likelihood of entry and exposure  
The likelihood of entry and exposure of LSDV  was estimated by combining the likelihood of entry and 
the corresponding likelihood of exposure using the matrix shown in Figure 1. 
Figure 1 Matrix for combining qualitative likelihoods  
 
3.4 Consequence assessment  
3.4.1 Likelihood of establishment and/or spread  
The c onsequence assessment describes the relationship between exposures to the identified hazard 
and the consequences of those exposures. It assesses the likelihood of establishment and/or spread 
of LSDV  and t he potential impacts/effects of the disease  (that is, the outbreak scenario) . 
The likelihood of significant outbreaks occurring following cases of LSD (the likelihood of 
establishment and/or spread) was assessed qualitatively . Factors relevant to this assessment 
included  pathogen factors, exposure group factors, demographic and environmental factors,  and 
disease  control factors.  
Consequences attributable to the outbreaks were assessed qualitatively  in terms of direct and 
indirect  effects on human, animal and plant life and health on a national scale, including adverse 
health,  environmental and socioeconomic effects.   
Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
8 The likely consequences of establishment and/or spread of the disease agent were then estimated by 
combining the likelihood of establishment and/or spread with the overall effect of establishment 
and/or spread using the matrix shown in Figure 2. 
Figure 2 Likely consequences matrix  
 
 
3.5 Risk estimation  
The overall likelihood of entry and exposure was combined with the likely consequences using Figure 
3 to produce the risk estimate for LSD in imported bovine skeletal muscle meat.  
Figure 3 Risk estimation matrix  
 
Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
9 4 Technical  information  
4.1 Agent properties  
LSDV can remain viable for many months in the environment, especially in dark environmental 
conditions such as contaminated animal sheds. It can survive in necrotic skin nodules for longer than 
33 days, desiccated crusts for up to 35 days and air -dried hid es for at least 18 days (WOAH 2017) . 
4.2 Epidemiology  
Biting insects have been shown to be the primary route for transmitting the disease under field 
circumstances (Magori -Cohen et al. 2012) . Ticks have also been implicated (Lubinga et al. 2015; 
Lubinga et al. 2013; Tuppurainen & Oura 2012) . Outbreaks have been associated with 
Stomoxys  calcitrans  (stable fly) carrying LSDV over 80  km, and possibly over 200  km by wind in Israel 
(Yeruham et al. 1995) . Experimentally, it was shown that S. calcitrans  can transmit capripox viruses 
between sheep, (Kitching & Mellor 1986)  and Aedes  aegypti  can transmit LSDV from infected cattle 
to susceptible cattle (Chihota et al. 2001) . 
The incubation period of LSD ranges from 1 to 4 weeks and can be as early as 4  days in 
experimentally infected animals (CFSPH 2017) . The incubation period of LSD in the  WOAH  Terrestrial 
Code is 28  days (WOAH 2021) . 
LSD is a highly infectious transboundary disease. The primary mode of transmission of LSDV is 
mechanical through biting arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes A. aegypti , Anopheles  stephensi  and 
Culex  quinquefasciatus , S. calcitrans  and the biting midge Culicoides  nubeculosus . The virus does not 
replicate in these arthropods (Klement 2018; Tuppurainen et al. 2013a) . Frequency of disease is 
higher in warm and humid weather conditions when there are high population densities of biting 
arthropods (Machado et al. 2019) . 
Ticks are also competent vectors of LSDV and may act as reservoirs. Transstadial and mechanical 
transmission have been demonstrated in several species of ticks including Amblyomma  hebraeum  
and Rhipicephalus  appendiculatus , and transovarial transmission has been shown in 
Rhipicephalus  decoloratus  ticks (Lubinga et al. 2015; Lubinga et al. 2013; Tuppurainen et al. 2013a; 
Tuppurainen et al. 2013b) . However, an understanding of the role of ticks in transmission of the virus 
requires further investigation (Kleme nt 2018) . 
A high proportion of animals infected with LSDV (up to 50%) have sub -clinical or mild infection but 
are still viraemic and capable of transmitting the disease via vectors (Osuagwuh et al. 2007; 
Tuppurainen, Alexandrov & Beltrán -Alcrudo 2017; Tuppurainen, Venter & Coetzer 2005) . However, 
uptake of LSDV by biting vectors is most efficient from clinically affected animals. Insects ( A. aegypti , 
C. quinquefasciatus , S. calcitrans , and C. nubeculosus ) that feed on sub -clinical animals were found to 
be 97% less likely to acquire LSDV than insects feeding on a clinical animal (Sanz -Bernardo et al. 
2021) . This suggests that the viral load in sub -clinical animals is lower than in clinically affected 
animals. The same study found that sub -clinically infected cattle are significantly less likely to 
transmit LSDV compared with clinically infected cattle.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
10 Although transmission may occur by ingestion of feed and water contaminated with infected saliva  
(WOAH 2013) , LSDV is not readily spread by direct contact (cutaneous lesions, saliva, respiratory 
secretions, milk and semen) or iatrogenically through the use of contaminated needles (Carn & 
Kitching 1995; Kitching & Taylor 1985) . Experimental infection has occurred following subcutaneous, 
intramuscular and intravenous injection with LSDV.  
Direct contact transmission of LSDV in the absence of vectors is generally considered to be inefficient 
(Sprygin et al. 2019; Weiss 1968) . However, a 2020 study suggests that recombination of LSDV could 
be producing strains that may be more capable of transmission in the absence of vectors (Kononov et 
al. 2019 a; Kononov et al. 2020) . 
The recombinant strain involved, LSDV RUSSIA/Saratov/2017, was isolated from a field case of LSD 
following widespread vaccination of cattle in an adjacent country with a live attenuated LSD vaccine 
(Sprygin et al. 2018) . Infection following direct transmission of LSDV RUSSIA/Saratov/2017 showed a 
distinct pattern of initial lesion development focused on the head and neck and is likely the result of 
initial infection in the lungs or mucosa ; however , generalised lesions eventually developed in the in -
contact animals.  In-contact animals in the absence of vectors developed similar or lower viral titres in 
blood, ocular and nasal secretions by comparison with intravenously infected animals to which they 
were exposed (Kononov et al. 2020) . 
4.3 Pathogenesis  
After biting insects have transmitted LSDV to the susceptible host, replication initially occurs in the 
skin. Viraemia is usually detectable after 6  days and lasts for approximately 9  days. LSDV continues to 
be shed from nasal, oral and conjunctival secretions for at least 1 week post viraemia (Babiuk 2018) . 
LSDV genome has been detected up to 42  days from skin lesions in infected cattle and viral isolation 
was successful up to 15  days post infection (Babiuk et al. 2008) . 
LSD causes systemic disease in cattle and buffalo, with fever, generalised skin nodules, lesions in the 
mucous membranes and internal organs, emaciation, enlarged lymph nodes and cutaneous oedema. 
Pox lesions can be seen on mucous membranes of the eyes, mo uth, nose, pharynx, epiglottis, 
trachea; on the ruminal and abomasal mucosae; on the muzzle, nares, prepuce, testicles, udder and 
teats; in the vulva and under the tail (WOAH 2013) . 
Mortality rates of between 1% and 5%, and morbidity rates of between 10% and 20% are expected 
for LSD in cattle (WOAH 2022b) . 
4.4 Transmission in skeletal muscle meat  
As mentioned above, LSDV is transmitted primarily by biting insects  and is not readily spread by 
direct contact. However, poxvirus nodules might be present in the muscles of infected animals and 
the virus is resistant to environmental degradation. In addition, LSDV persists for a prolonged period 
within the skin of infected a nimals (Tuppurainen, Venter & Coetzer 2005) . Thus, it is theoretically 
possible that meat or other carcase parts, particularly skin, may introduce LSDV into a region where it 
can then  spread , due to viral persistence in these tissues.  
Several papers have stated that LSD lesions may be present in meat  and/or musculature.  Some 
masses (lumps) may be detected in the subcutaneous tissues and are often distributed throughout 
the connective tissue and muscle in the body (Diesel 1949) . Nodules may be found in the Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
11 subcutaneous tissue, muscle fascia , muscle and internal organs (Davies 1991; Mulatu & Feyisa 2018) . 
Clinical signs of LSD in cattle are mild to severe; characterised by fever, multiple skin nodules 
covering the neck, back, perineum, tail, limbs, genital organs, mucous membranes , and the lesions 
may also involve subcutaneous tissues and sometimes musculature and internal organs.  
Histopathological examination of affected cattle during an LSD outbreak in Egypt found marked 
coagulative necrosis of subcutaneous muscle (Neamat -Allah 2015) . Histopathology of gross lesions 
(nodules) from affected cattle in an Egyptian  abattoir over 12  month s revealed that the nodules 
involved all layers of the skin and occasionally the adjacent muscle (Ahmed & Dessouki 2013) . 
However, at the time of the beef review, the only observational studies to mention LSD in bovine 
muscle described pathology associated with LSD in subcutaneous muscle and not skeletal muscle 
(Ahmed & Dessouki 2013; Neamat -Allah 2015; Young, Basson & Weiss 1970) . 
Kononov et al. (2019 b) is the only peer -reviewed study that examines the likelihood of skeletal 
muscle becoming contaminated with LSDV. In that study , 12 bulls were inoculated intravenously with 
a dose of 2  x 105 median tissue culture infectious doses (TCID 50) of LSDV . At 21  days post -inoculation, 
no infectious LSDV  nor LSDV RNA  was detected in apparently healthy  skeletal muscle tissue 
harvested from all animals (8 clinically and 4 sub -clinically infected cattle).  LSDV was only recovered 
from muscle tissues physically connected t o overlying skin lesions in 4 of the experimentally 
inoculated animals  with clinical signs of disease.  
Kononov et al. (2019 b) concluded that the likelihood of transmission through skeletal meat not 
connected to adjacent skin lesions was minima l and stated that “… this is the first scientific 
confirmation that skeletal meat of cattle infected with a virulent LSDV strain can be considered a 
commodity with a very low risk ”. 
The WOAH Terrestrial Code (Article 11.9.2) now recommends that skeletal meat should not require 
any LSD -related conditions regardless of the status of the animal population of the exporting country 
and has nominated skeletal muscle  as a “safe commodity ”6 (WOAH 2022b) . This article states  that 
when authorising import or transit, Veterinary Authorities should not require any LSD -related 
conditions regardless of the status of the animal population of the exporting country  for skeletal 
muscle, casings, gelatine and collagen, tallow, hooves and horns.  However, it is important to note the 
WOAH Terrestrial Code requires that the production of meat is undertaken in accord with applicable 
international standards .  
The department notes that since the beef review was published, the Ministry for Primary Industries 
Biosecurity New Zealand released Technical Advice Risk of lumpy skin disease via import of cattle and 
buffalo meat and meat products for human and animal consumption  (Ministry for Primary Industries 
2022) . This concluded that “risk management measures are not justified for LSDV when cattle and 
 
6 The WOAH  Terrestrial Code  defines a safe commodity as “ a commodity that can be traded without the need 
for risk mitigation measures specifically directed against a particular listed disease, infection or infestation and 
regardless of the status of the country or zone of origin for that disease, infection or in festation”.  
 Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
12 buffalo meat and meat products intended for human and animal consumption are imported into 
New Zealand”.  
There are no reports in the scientific literature which implicate meat from LSD infected animals in the 
transmission of LSD V. 
4.5 Current biosecurity measures  
LSD is a WOAH -listed disease (WOAH 2022a) . As for other animal diseases with significant adverse 
impacts, the implications of WOAH listing are broad ranging, extending beyond that described below.  
The Australian Government’s 2017 beef review noted that LSD was accepted by Australia as not 
present in the applicant countries (Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United States and 
Vanuatu), so a full risk assessment was not conducted (Department of Agriculture and Water 
Resources 2017) . As mentioned earlier, c urrent import conditions  for the import of beef and beef 
products for human consumption from applicant countries  require country freedom from LSD. 
Countries at the present time need to be accep table to Australia as free from LSD (as well as meeting 
all other requirements) to be eligible to supply fresh (chilled or frozen) beef or beef products to 
Australia.  
Should  an applicant country experience an incursion of LSD, the expectation is that regulatory 
programs and relevant legislation would come into immediate effect to notify trading partners and 
WOAH of the detection, as well as specify what affected product may be in transit and contain the 
outb reak with the objective of eradication if possible. Article 2.1.4.1b in the WOAH  Terrestrial Code 
refers to evaluation of veterinary services of the exporting country as an important input to the entry 
assessment  (WOA H 2022b) . Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
13 5 Risk Assessment  
5.1 Entry assessment  
The following f actors were considered relevant to an estimate of the likelihood of LSDV being 
present in fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat imported for human consumption from applicant 
countries:  
• LSD has an expanding global distribution and presents a significant ongoing animal disease 
threat.  
− As mentioned in Section 2, LSD was originally limited to Africa but has  spread throughout 
the Asian continent . It is now present in South East Asia including Vietnam, Thailand , 
Malaysia  and Indonesia .  
• The likelihood of LSDV entering Australia in fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat  is reduced by 
general entry requirements and the notification requirements in applicant countries, should 
there be an incursion. The sourcing of fresh beef and beef products from animals that have 
undergone suitable ante - and post -mortem inspection in establishments under the control of 
the Competent Authority of countries approved to export to Australia ensures that only healthy 
animals will be slaughtered for human consumption.  
• Should any clinically affected animals not be detected before transport to the abattoir in the 
source country, or develop clinical signs of LSD during transport, they are  highly  likely to be 
identified during the specified ante - and post -mortem inspection with the source country’s 
controls coming into immediate effect.  
• It is possible that sub-clinically affected animals may enter an abattoir for processing. However, 
current research suggests that the viral load in sub -clinical animals is lower than in clinically 
affected animals. There is evidence that sub -clinically infected cattle are significantly less likely 
to transmit LSDV compared with clinically infected cattle (Sanz -Bernardo et al. 2021) . 
• Kononov et al. (2019 b) attempted to isolate infectious LSDV in clinically and sub -clinically 
infected cattle  21 days after inoculation  with LSDV .  
− No infectious LSDV was detected in apparently healthy skeletal muscle tissue (that was not 
underlying skin lesions) from  the 8 clinically affected animals. LSDV was only recovered 
from skeletal muscle tissue that was  physically connected to overlying skin lesions in 4 of 
the clinically affected animals . 
− No infectious LSDV was detected in apparently healthy skeletal muscle tissue harvested 
from the 4 sub -clinically infected animals . LSDV was only detected in enlarged lymph nodes 
and testicles of these animals.  It is important to note that lymph nodes are not included in 
the definition of bovine skeletal muscle  meat  (see Section 1.2). 
− This study demonstrates  that skeletal muscle meat of cattle infected with a virulent strain 
of LSDV is  highly unlikely to be  infectious  regardless of the clinical presentation, as long as 
the skeletal muscle tissue  is not connected to underlying lesions.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
14 − Article 11.9.2. of the WOAH Terrestrial Code (WOAH 2022b)  advises that, for the purposes 
of international trade, bovine skeletal muscle meat is a safe commodity regardless of the 
LSD status of the animal population in the exporting country.  
• During the viraemic phase of infection, LSDV is present in an animal’s blood, raising the 
possibility of infectious blood being retained in fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat. While blood 
is retained in a carcase following slaughter and exsanguination, it i s largely retained in the 
viscera rather than the skeletal muscle.  
− The residual blood content of lean meat was found to be 2 –9 mL/kg muscle in studies. 
There is no evidence that this amount is affected by different slaughter methods or that 
large amounts of residual blood influence the microbiology of meat (Warriss 1984) . 
Based on these factors, the entry assessment for LSDV via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat derived 
exclusively from bovines concludes there is a very low  likelihood of entry of this disease via fresh 
bovine skeletal muscle meat when sourcing and official inspection requirements for import are 
fulfilled in applicant countries.  
5.2 Exposure assessment  
The following factors  were considered relevant to an estimate of the likelihood of susceptible 
animals being exposed to LSDV in fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat imported for human 
consumption from applicant countries:  
• Biting flies in Australia that may be able to feed on bovine skeletal muscle meat have an 
extremely low to negligible likelihood of ingesting LSDV (Sanz -Bernardo et al. 2021)  and being 
able to pass it on to cattle or buffalo.  
• All states and territories in Australia prohibit the feeding of Restricted Animal Material (RAM) to 
all ruminants. RAM is defined as any material taken from a vertebrate animal other than tallow, 
gelatin, milk products or oils. It includes meat, rendered p roducts, such as blood meal, meat 
meal, meat and bone meal, fish meal, poultry meal, eggs, feather meal, and compounded feeds 
made from these products.  
• There are no reports in the scientific literature which implicate meat from LSD infected animals 
in the transmission of LSD.  
The likelihood that biting insects feeding on fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat could become 
contaminated with LSDV and spread the disease to susceptible cattle or buffalo within Australia is 
estimated to be extremely low . 
The likelihood of exposure of susceptible cattle or buffalo to infection through oral exposure to fresh 
bovine skeletal muscle meat is estimated to be extremely low . 
5.3 Estimate of the likelihood of entry and exposure  
The likelihood of entry of LSDV was estimated to be very low , and the likelihood of exposure to LSDV 
was estimated to be extremely low . Using  Figure 1, the likelihood of entry and exposure for LSDV 
was estimated to be extremely low . Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
15 5.4 Consequence assessment  
5.4.1 Identification of an outbreak scenario and likelihood of 
establishment and/or spread associated with the outbreak scenario  
The most likely outbreak scenario following exposure of susceptible animals to LSDV in imported 
fresh bovine skeletal muscle was considered to be establishment in the directly exposed population 
and spread to other populations of susceptible animals across  multiple states or territories.  
The following factors were considered relevant to an estimate of the likelihood of the identified 
outbreak scenario occurring:  
• Transmission of LSD V is primarily via biting arthropod vectors. Spread of disease is usually 
influenced by synoptic systems, geography and climate. The virus could spread quickly and be 
difficult to control in a country or region that has an abundance of competent vectors and  
favourable conditions for vector survival, such as Australia.  
• Movement of infected animals is the main pathway for long -distance dispersal of LSD. Animal 
movements between states and territories occurs frequently.  
• Clinical signs of LSD may not be evident for several weeks after infection. However, on a newly 
affected farm it is likely that some animals would display clinical signs of disease within the first 
or second week of infection.  
Based on these considerations, the likelihood of establishment and/or spread of LSDV associated 
with the identified outbreak scenario was estimated to be moderate . 
5.4.2 Determination of overall effect of establishment and/or spread 
associated with outbreak scenario  
Factors considered relevant to the effect on the life or health (including production effects) of 
susceptible animals  were : 
• Mortality of between 1% and 5% is expected for LSD.  
• Animals affected by LSD may have permanent loss of milk production, infertility problems and 
permanent damage to hides.  
The effect on the living environment, including life and health of wildlife, and any effects on the non -
living environment  of LSD is not considered to be negligible . 
The effect on new or modified eradication, control, monitoring or surveillance and compensation 
strategies or programs  include that : 
• If LSD was identified in Australia, the response strategy as outlined in the AUSVETPLAN 
Response Strategy for LSD is eradication in the shortest possible time using stamping out. This 
would be supported by a combination of strategies including sanitary disposal of destroyed 
animals and contaminated animal products, quarantine and movement controls, 
decontamination of fomites, control of vectors, tracing and surveillance, zoning and/or 
compartmentalisation, vaccination if available, and an awareness campaign  (AHA 2022b) . 
• LSD is scheduled as Category 3 under Australia’s Emergency Animal Disease Response 
Agreement ( EADRA ) for cost -sharing arrangements. Should it be activated, EADRA states that Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
16 direct costs of the response would be shared  by Australian government s and relevant industries 
by contributions of 50% each (AHA 2022a) . 
The effect on domestic trade or industry, including changes in consumer demand and effects on 
other industries supplying inputs to, or using outputs from, directly affected industries  include that : 
• Following a detection of LSD, domestic movement restrictions would disrupt domestic markets.  
• Along with affected livestock producers, associated industries in affected regions would suffer 
losses, such as transporters, stockfeed manufacturers and processors of animal products.  
• With export market disruptions, relevant animal products destined for export would be 
redirected to the domestic market and domestic prices may fall. As a result, revenue for 
affected and associated industries would decrease.  
• Domestic consumers may be concerned about the safety of animal products. This could reduce 
sales of products derived from relevant species. An awareness campaign may be needed to 
educate consumers that LSD does not affect food safety.  
The effect on international trade, including loss of markets, meeting new technical requirements to 
enter or maintain markets and changes in international consumer demand  include that : 
• An outbreak of LSD in Australia would significantly disrupt exports of relevant animals and 
animal products from Australia. Resumption of trade would depend on renegotiations with 
importing countries and additional biosecurity measures may need to be met.  
• Under the WOAH  Terrestrial Code , freedom from  LSD can only be claimed after a minimum 
of 14  months following the stamping out of the last vaccinated or infected animal (WOAH 
2021) . 
• In 2021, Australian beef exports  were  valued at $9.2  billion (MLA 2022) . 
• Australian dairy product exports are forecast  to be  $3.4 billion in the 202 2–23 financial year 
(Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  2023) . 
• If LSD became established, zoning could be used to maintain or regain access to international 
markets. However, export markets for relevant commodities from affected zones may be lost 
or restricted, and access to new export markets could be affected.  
The effect on the environment, including biodiversity, endangered species and the integrity of 
ecosystems  include that : 
• Disposal of destroyed animals and animal products, and increased use of disinfectants, may 
have effects on the environment.  
• Increased use of insecticides for insect control could impact  a range of insect species and 
disrupt food sources of wildlife, lead to environmental contamination (including water 
sources) and resistance to insecticides.  
The effect on communities, including reduced tourism, reduced rural and regional economic viability 
and loss of social amenity, and any ‘side effects’ of control measures  include that : 
• Psychological distress could occur due to implementation of control and eradication 
measures, such as for owners of animals that are destroyed as part of disease control 
measures.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
17 • Ongoing financial distress could occur for owners of affected premises if the disease situation 
prevents timely restocking.  
• Where the relevant species were important to the local economy, if LSD became established, 
the economic viability of communities within affected regions may be compromised due to 
effects on directly affected and associated industries.  
• Disruption of events due to movement controls could have social consequences for people 
involved.  
Based on the geographic level and magnitude of effects, the overall effect of establishment and/or 
spread of LSD V associated with the identified outbreak scenario was estimated to be high . The effect 
is likely to be significant at the national level and highly significant within affected zones. This i mplies 
that the effect would be of national concern. However, serious effects on economic stability, societal 
values or social well -being would be limited to a given zone.  
5.4.3 Derivation of likely consequences  
The likelihood of establishment and/or spread of LSDV was estimated to be moderate . The overall 
effect of establishment and/or spread for LSDV was estimated to be high . Using  Figure 2, the likely 
consequences of establishment and/or spread of LSDV were estimated to be high . 
5.5 Risk estimation  
The likelihood of entry and exposure of LSD V was estimated to be extremely low . The likely 
consequences of establishment and/or spread of LSD V was estimated to be high . Using  Figure 3, the 
unrestricted risk of LSD V was estimated to be very low . Further risk management is therefore not 
required to meet Australia’s ALOP.  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
18 6 Conclusion  and recommendations  
The overall biosecurity risk of LSD associated with the importation of fresh bovine skeletal muscle 
meat derived from bovines in applicant countries that have been approved for the importation of 
fresh beef and beef products into Australia is assessed as very low  when all sourcing and processing 
requirements specified in the beef review are met. Under those conditions of trade Australia’s  ALOP 
with respect to animal biosecurity risks will have been achieved and additional biosecurity measures 
for LSDV are not required.  This finding  is consistent with the New Zealand risk assessment which 
concluded that r isk management measures were  not justified for imported  cattle and buffalo meat 
and meat  products for human consumption (Ministry for Primary  Industries 2022) . 
It is recommended that the requirement for country freedom from LSD  for the export of fresh bovine 
skeletal muscle to Australia from approved source countries be removed from Australia’s published 
import conditions for imported fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat . 
  Final report: Risk of lumpy skin disease via fresh bovine skeletal muscle meat from applicant countries  
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry  
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