G/AG/GEN/197/Add.1  
 
23 March 2022  
(22-2473) Page: 1/3 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
REPORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS  COUNCIL (IGC)  
Addendum  
The following submission, dated 23 March 2022, is being circulated at the request of the International 
Grains Council (IGC).  
 
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This supplemental report is submitted in response to the request by Members at the 100th Committee 
meeting  on 15 -16 March 2022 . 
 
1  RUSSIA N-UKRAINE C ONFLICT  
1.1.  With the Russian Federation and Ukraine among the world's largest exporters of grains and 
oilseeds (and products), the ongoing conflict and resulting spike in agricultural commodity prices 
has fuelled concerns about potential food security risks, e specially in import -dependent countries in 
Near East Asia and Africa. Given the fluid situation, the Council's supply and demand projections are 
especially tentative and are subject to significant uncertainty.  
1.2.  Immediate threats are mainly centred on the disruption to export flows. Commercial Black Sea 
port loadings are currently suspended in Ukraine. Although there are efforts to increase exports via 
railway routes through the country's western borders, overall volumes are likely to be limited. An 
export licencing system was recently introduced for wheat, maize and sunflower  seed oil, while 
shipments of barley, rye, oats and millet are currently banned. While the extent of infrastructure 
losses is unknown, potent ial damage to port facilities, railroads and storage silos could impact 
shipments over the longer term.  
1.3.  Most of Russia n Federation 's Black Sea terminals were operational as of mid -March, but with 
some ongoing restrictions in the Azov Sea. While loadings re cently resumed, volumes may be 
hampered by trade finance restrictions and additional ocean freight insurance requirements.  
1.4.  Additional exports from other origins, including India, the United States, the European  Union  
and Brazil, will likely only partially offset lower Black Sea shipments over the remainder of the current 
season. With high prices expected to ration demand, 2021/22 world wheat and maize trade is 
forecast to fall short of earlier predictions, respectivel y - 3 million tonnes  for Wheat and – 7 million 
tonnes  for Maize (please see Annex) .  
1.5.  There are also significant downside risks to Ukraine's 2022/23 grain and oilseed crops, which 
could exacerbate longer -term export supply shortfalls. In addition to tight a vailabilities of fuel, farm 
inputs and labour, access to some fields is currently impossible, leading to mounting worries about 
farmers' ability to fertilise winter crops and plant spring varieties.  
1.6.  The conflict has heightened concerns about tight global f ertiliser supply chains, stoked by 
restricted shipping operations to the region, as well as latest sanctions on Russia n Federation  and 
Belarus, respectively two of the world's leading suppliers of nitrogenous and potash fertilisers. 
Soaring natural gas pri ces, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertiliser production, has also contributed to 
recent price gains. With elevated input prices and tight availabilities already a concern before the 
hostilities, the rising costs of production could impact upcoming acreage decisions and application 
rates, with possible implications for global yields and crop quality.  G/AG/GEN/197/Add.1  
 
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  1.7.  The crisis has already sparked a number of policy responses in other countries, heightening 
fears about rising protectionism and the potentially adverse consequ ences for food insecure nations. 
Additionally, broader market turmoil and downside risks to global economic growth could also affect 
supply and demand dynamics, while rising crude oil and commodity prices may further fuel 
inflationary pressure.  
2  HIGHLIGHTS  
2.1.  Mainly tied to an increase for maize (Ukraine, India and the E uropean Union ), the forecast for 
world 2021/22 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is lifted by 3  m t m/m 
(month -on-month), to  2,284  m. Black Sea export disruptions and higher pric es are projected to lead 
to some demand rationing. Consumption is therefore forecast 8m t lower than before, while the 
global trade figure  (Jul/Jun) is cut by 9  m t, to 415  m t. Mainly reflecting an anticipated build -up of 
inventories in Ukraine (nominal f igures as not available for the global market), cumulative world 
ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are now seen larger y/y 
(year -on-year). With much hinging on developments in the Black Sea region, supply and demand 
projections for 2022/23 are unusually tentative.  
2.2.  Tied to further downgrades for South American producers, the 2021/22 global soyabean crop 
forecast is cut by 3  m t, to 350  m t (- 5% y/y). With tight carry -ins contributing to a reduction in 
supplies, prospects for util isation and stocks are trimmed, the latter by 1  m t, to 42  m t, about 
one-fifth lower y/y. Given dwindling availabilities and elevated values, the trade figure is scaled back 
and is down y/y. Linked to anticipated supply responses in the three majors, harv ested area could 
expand by 2% y/y in 2022/23.  
2.3.  Largely reflecting an uprated figure for production in India, the Council's 2021/22 rice output 
estimate is lifted by 4  m t, to a peak of 514  m t (+ 1% y/y), with the net m/m increase in supplies 
channelled to an upgraded outlook for record total use. Including an increase for China's imports, 
the 2022 (Jan/Dec) trade outlook is lifted by 1  m t m/m and would be steady y/y. Tied to gains in 
India and other key producers, global acreage is projected at a peak in 2 022/23.  
2.4.  The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) spiked by 13%, touching its highest in its 22 -year 
history, as the Russian Federation -Ukraine conflict sparked massive gains across grain and oilseed 
markets.  
 
  G/AG/GEN/197/Add.1  
 
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  ANNEX  
Grain Market Report ( GMR) 530 Cover Page  World Estimates  Values  
  18/19  19/20  20/21  21/22  
      est. f'cast  
Million ton nes       17.02  17.03  
TOTAL GRAINS a)        
Production  2,143 2,190 2,220 2,281 2,284 
Trade  365 396 427 424 415 
Consumption  2,170 2,197 2,235 2,286 2,278 
Carryover stocks  623 616 600 596 607 
 year/year change  -27 -7 -15   6 
 Major exporters b) 163 155 134 133 145 
            
WHEAT        
Production  733 762 774 781 781 
Trade  169 185 190 197 194 
Consumption  740 746 771 781 778 
Carryover stocks  259 275 278 278 281 
 year/year change  -8 16 3   3 
 Major exporters b) 69 63 61 57 63 
            
MAIZE (CORN)        
Production  1,132 1,127 1,132 1,203 1,207 
Trade  165 175 189 179 173 
Consumption  1,150 1,156 1,153 1,199 1,197 
Carryover stocks  326 298 277 281 287 
 year/year change  -17 -28 -21   10 
 Major exporters c) 71 63 43 53 58 
            
SOYABEANS        
Production  364 341 368 353 350 
Trade  152 169 160 161 159 
Consumption  349 354 367 363 362 
Carryover stocks  66 53 54 43 42 
 year/year change  15 -13 1   -12 
 Major exporters d) 33 24 15 9 9 
            
Million tonnes (milled  basis)            
RICE        
Production  499 500 509 510 514 
Trade  43 44 51 49 51 
Consumption  488 495 509 509 514 
Carryover stocks  175 180 180 181 181 
 year/year change  11 4 1 1 0 
 Major exporters e) 40 45 49 51 52 
Figures may not add due to rounding. All calculations are based on unrounded figures.  
a) Wheat and coarse grains.  
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union ( EU-28 to 19/20, EU -27 from 20/21) , Kazakhstan, 
Russian  Federation, Ukraine, U nited States . 
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, United States . 
d) Argentina, Brazil, United States . 
e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United  States , Viet Nam.  
 
 
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