PRESS/ 889 
 
4 October 2021  
(21-7375) Page: 1/10 
    
 
PRESS RELEASE  
E M B A R G O  
N O T  F O R  P U B L I C A T I O N ,  O R  D I S T R I B U T I O N  B Y  N E W S  A G E N C I E S  U N T I L  
13: 0 0  H  G E N E V A  T I M E  4  O C T O B E R  2 0 2 1  
 
TRADE STATISTICS AND OUTLOOK  
Global trade rebound beats expectations but marked by regional 
divergence s 
The resurgence of global  econom ic activity  in the first 
half of 2021 lifted merchandise  trade above  its pre-
pandemic  peak, leading  WTO economists to upgrade  
their forecast s for trade in  2021 and 2022.  
 
The WTO  is now predicting  global  merchandise trade 
volume growth of 10.8% in 2021 —up from 8.0% 
forecasted in March —followed by a 4.7% rise in 2022  
(Table 1 ). Growth should moderate as merchandise  
trade  approaches  its pre-pandemic long-run trend . 
Supply -side issues  such as  semiconductor s carcity  and 
port backlogs may strain supply chains and  weigh on 
trade  in particular areas , but they are unlikely to have 
large impact s on global aggregates.  The biggest 
downside risks come from the pandemic itself.  
 
Behind  the strong overall trade increase , however, 
there is significant divergence across  countries, with 
some developing  regions falling well short of the global 
average.  
 
"Trade has been a critical tool in combatting the 
pandemic , and this stron g growth underscores how 
important trade will be in underpinning the global 
economic recovery," Director -General Ngozi Okonjo -
Iweala said. "But inequitable access to vaccines is 
exacerbating economic divergence  across regions. The 
longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist,  the 
greater the chance that even more dangerous variants 
of COVID -19 will emerge, setting back the  health and 
economic  progress we have made to date."  MAIN POINTS  
• World merchandise trade volume is 
expected to grow 10.8% in 2021 , 
revised up from 8.0% forecasted in 
March. Trade growth should slow to 
4.7% in 2022, up from 4.0% previously.  
• Quarterly trade  growth  was up 22.0% 
year -on-year in Q2  of this year but is 
expected to slow to 6.6% by Q4 , 
reflecting 2020's drop and recovery .  
• Global GDP will grow 5.3% in 2021 , up 
from 5.1% forecasted in March. Growth 
should slow to 4.1% in 2022, up from 
3.8% previously.  
• The current forecast is close to the 
upside scenario  shown in the last trade 
forecast, but downside risks now 
predominate , including strained global 
supply ch ains and COVID -19 outbreaks . 
• Regional disparities will remain large . 
Imports of Asia in 2021 are expected to 
rise 9.4% compared to 2019, while 
imports of Least -Developed Countries 
(LDCs) will fall 1.6%.  
• Services trade is likely to lag behind 
goods trade , particularly in sectors 
related to travel and leisure.  PRESS/ 889 
 
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  "As we approach the 12th Ministerial Conference, memb ers must come together and agree on a 
strong WTO response to the pandemic , which would provide a foundation for more rapid vaccine 
production and equitable distribution. This is necessary to  sustain  the global  economic recovery . 
Vaccine policy is economic policy  - and trade policy ," she said.   
 
The large annual growth rate for merchandise trade volume in 2021 is mostly a reflection of the 
previous year's slump, which bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020. Due to a lower base,  
year-on-year growth in the  second quarter of 2021 was 22.0%, but the figure is projected to fall  to 
10.9% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the fourth quarter , in part because of the rapid recovery in 
trade in the last two quarters of 2020 (Chart 1). Reaching the forecast for 2021 o nly require s 
quarter -on-quarter growth to average 0.8% per quarter in the second half of th is year, equivalent 
to an annualized rate of 3.1%.  
 
Chart 1: World merchandise trade volume, 2015Q1 -2022Q4  
Index, 2015=100  
 
Sources:  WTO and UNCTAD for trade volume data; WTO for forecasts.  
 
The trajectory  of the current merchandise trade forecast in Chart 1 is close to the upside scenario 
discussed  in the WTO's most recent  forecast  of 31 March.  That scenario depended on a number of  
assumptions, including an acceleration in the production and dissemination of COVID -19 vaccines. 
More than 6  billion doses have been produced and administered worldwide. This is a remarkable 
achievement, but unfortunately still insufficient , because of sh arp differences in access across 
countries . To date, o nly 2.2% of people in low -income countries have received at least one dose  of 
a COVID -19 vaccine.1 Failure to vaccinate in all countries against COVID -19 has led to a two - track 
recovery, with slower g rowth in countries with limited access to vaccines , which are frequently 
those that had the least fiscal space to support businesses and households . This divergence 
creates space for the emergence and spread of new, potentially vaccine -evading forms of the  
virus, which could result in the reimposi tion of health -related controls that reduce economic 
activity . 
 
1 Mathieu, E., Ritchie, H., Ortiz -Ospina, E. et al. "A global database of COVID -19 vaccinations." 
Nat Hum Behav (2021) . 
9095100105110115120125
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Merchandise trade volume Trend 2011-2019
Current forecast Previous forecastPRESS/ 889 
 
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  Trade volume growth is set to be accompanied by market -weighted  GDP growth of 5.3% in 2021 
and 4.1% in 2022 (revised up from 5.1% and 3.8% previously).  GDP g rowth  has been spurred  on 
by strong monetary and fiscal  policy  support , and by the resumption of economic activity in 
countries that have been able to deploy  COVID -19 vaccines  at scale . 
 
In the years before the global financial crisis (1990 -2007), world merchandise trade grew around 
twice as fast as world GDP at market exchange rates, but subsequently slowed to about  the same 
rate on average. The current trade projections imply that the ra tio of trade growth to GDP growth 
will rise to 2.0 :1 in 2021 before falling back to 1.1 :1 in 2022. If the forecast is realized, this would 
indicate that the pandemic will not have had a fundamental structural impact on the relationship 
between world trade and income.  
 
Risks to the forecast remain  on the downside, but the relative importance of those risks is difficult 
to gauge. They include spikes in inflation , longer port delays , higher shipping rates , and extended 
shortages of semiconductors , with supply side disruptions being exacerbated by the rapid and 
unexpectedly strong recovery of demand in advanced and many emerging economies.  The 
pandemic  itself presents potentially even bigger risks to  world trade and output , particularly  if 
more deadly variant s were to emerge.  The highly contagious Delta variant has already promp ted 
governments  to reinstate some containment measures . 
 
The recent upticks in inflation are probably temporary, driven by supply -side shocks affecting 
certain sectors in specific economies  balanced against the unexpectedly strong recovery in 
demand . However, if inflationary expectations do become entrenched, central banks may feel the 
need to tighten policy early. This could create negative spill -overs, which would eventually hit 
trade flows. The period after the pandemic may see some periods of volatility as monetary policy 
normalizes and as governments shift to more sustainable fiscal policies.  
 
Overall, the trade recovery continues to diverge by region. In particular, the Middle East, South 
America and Africa look set to have the weakest recoveries on the export side, while the Middle 
East, the Commonwealth of Independent States , and Africa will have the slowest recoveries on the 
import side.   
 
Chart 2 shows  quarterly  growth in th e volume of merchandise trade by region since 2019, the last 
full year before the COVID -19 pandemic. Because the depth of the recession  in 2020  differed from 
one region to the next, 12 -month year -on-year growth rates do not illustrate  the crisis 's impact  on 
each region's trajectory  as effectively as cumulative projected trade growth over the three years 
between 2019 and the end of 2022, visible in the divergence between the lines for each region . 
 
If the current forecast is realized, by the final quarter of  2022 Asia's merchandise imports will 
be 14.2% higher than they were in 2019.  Over the same period, imports will have risen by 11.9% 
in North America, 10.8% in South and Central America, 9.4% in Europe, 8.2% in Africa, 5.7% in 
the Commonwealth of Independe nt States and 5.4% in the Middle East. Asia's exports will have 
grown 18.8%  over that period,  while all other regions will have recorded more modest increases: 
North America (8.0%), Europe (7.8%), CIS (6.2%), South America (4.8%), the Middle East 
(2.9%) an d Africa (1.9%).  
 
It appears that regions with oil -reliant export bases suffered large declines in both merchandise 
exports and imports during the 2020 recession, and that these losses have since been only partly 
recovered. South America's relatively stron g import recovery also reflects base effects from 
recessions in some of the region's key economies in 2019.  
 PRESS/ 889 
 
- 4 - 
 
  Chart 2: Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2019Q1 -2022Q4  
Volume index, 2019=100  
 
a Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
b Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member 
States.  
 
Source:  WTO and UNCTAD.  
 
Table 1 summarizes the WTO's  annual  forecasts for merchandise trade volume and real GDP at 
market exchange rates  from 2017 through 2022 . The annual figures differ slightly from the 
quarterly numbers for reasons of statistical methodology, but they tell a similar story of regional 
divergence s. In addition to the five WTO regions, the table also includes estimates for Leas t-
Developed Countries (LDCs). The numbers show that the poorest countries saw their merchandise 
exports decline  less than the global average in 2020 , while their imports declined  more.  
 
The forecast projects  export volume growth in 2021 will be 8.7% in North America, 7.2% in South 
America, 9.7% in Europe, 0.6% in the  CIS, 7.0% in Africa, 5.0% in the Middle East and 14. 4% for 
Asia. Imports in the same year are set to  grow by 12.6% in North America, 19.9% in South 
America, 9.1% in Europe, 13.1% in CIS, 11.3% in Africa, 9.3% in the Middle East and 10.7% in 
Asia. Exports and imports of LDCs will increase by  an estimated  5.3% and 5.5%, respectively, 
in 2021. 
 
As with the quarterly figures above, annual trade growth figures for  2021 are to a considerable  
extent  a function of the decline suffered by each region  in 2020. The pandemic's impact on trade is 
better illustrated by looking at cumulative growth over the two years from 2019 to 2021. If the 
second half of this year turns out as expected,  world merchandise trade  will be up 4.9%  compared 
to 2019. Over that period, e xport growth will be -0.6% in North America, 2.2% in South America, 
1.0% in Europe, -1.0% in the CIS , -2.4% in Africa, -7.2% in the Middle East and 14.7% in Asia. 
Meanwhile, impo rt growth between 2019 and 2021 will be 5.7% in North America, 8.1% in South 
America, 0.8% in Europe, 7.5% in the CIS, -1.0% in Africa, -5.9% in the Middle East and 9.4% in 
Asia. For LDCs, t he volume of merchandise exports will increase by 3.2% between 201 9 and 2021, 
while their imports are set to decrease by  1.6%  over the same interval . This divergence continues 
into the projections for 2022.  
 
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North America South America a Europe
CIS b Africa Middle East
Asia707580859095100105110115120
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North America South America a Europe
CIS b Africa Middle East
AsiaPRESS/ 889 
 
- 5 - 
 
  Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2017 -2022a 
Annual % change  
 
a Figures for 2021 and 2022 are projections.  
b Average of exports and imports.  
c Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
d Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member 
States.  
 
Note:  These projections incorporate mixed -data sampling (MIDAS) techniques for selected countries  to 
take advantage of high er-frequency data such as container throughput and financial risk indices . 
 
Sources:  WTO for trade, consensus estimates for GDP.  
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P 2022P
Volume of world merchandise tradeb4.8 3.1 0.1 -5.3 10.8 4.7
Exports
North America 3.4 3.8 0.3 -8.6 8.7 6.9
South Americac2.2 -0.2 -2.2 -4.7 7.2 2.0
Europe 4.1 1.9 0.6 -7.9 9.7 5.6
CISd3.9 4.1 -0.3 -1.5 0.6 8.5
Africa 5.3 3.6 -0.7 -8.8 7.0 6.0
Middle East -2.2 4.8 -2.2 -11.6 5.0 9.6
Asia 6.7 3.7 0.8 0.3 14.4 2.3
Imports
North America 4.4 5.1 -0.6 -6.1 12.6 4.5
South Americac4.4 5.6 -2.6 -9.9 19.9 2.1
Europe 3.9 1.9 0.3 -7.6 9.1 6.8
CISd13.9 4.0 8.5 -5.6 13.8 -0.8
Africa -1.7 5.3 2.8 -11.1 11.3 4.1
Middle East 1.2 -4.1 2.4 -13.9 9.3 8.7
Asia 8.5 5.0 -0.5 -1.2 10.7 2.9
World GDP at market exchange rates 3.2 3.1 2.4 -3.5 5.3 4.1
North America 2.3 2.8 2.0 -4.0 5.6 3.7
South Americac0.7 0.3 -0.5 -7.5 4.9 2.9
Europe 2.7 2.0 1.5 -6.4 4.3 4.0
CISd2.3 3.1 2.6 -2.7 3.9 3.4
Africa 3.1 3.0 2.9 -2.8 3.5 4.1
Middle East 0.7 0.4 0.0 -4.6 2.9 4.5
Asia 5.0 4.7 3.9 -0.9 6.1 4.7
Memo: Least developed countries (LDCs)
Volume of merchandise exports 4.3 4.0 2.1 -2.0 5.3 4.7
Volume of merchandise imports 4.9 5.3 7.6 -6.7 5.5 8.6
Real GDP at market exchange rates 3.1 3.2 3.8 0.3 2.2 4.4PRESS/ 889 
 
- 6 - 
 
  Nominal t rade developments  
The WTO's latest statistics on merchandise trade in nominal US dollar terms are released in 
conjunction with the trade forecast. These and other statistics can be downloaded from the WTO's 
online database . 
 
Chart 3 shows estimate d year -on-year growth rates  for several categories of  manufactured goods  
trade  through the second quarter  of 2021. The drop in automotive products  trade  in the month of 
June is unusually large compared to other goods  categories. The decline could be related to the 
recent shortage of semiconductors in the automotive industry, which has disrupted car production 
worldwide . It is notable that the category Integrated circuits shows no such decline. Integrated 
circuits may have been diverted to other uses during the pandemic (e.g. consumer electronics), 
leaving limited supplies for automotive applications once production ramped up.  
 
Chart 3: Year -on-year growth in world manufactured goods trade by product, 2021 Q2 
% change in USD values  
 
Source:  WTO estimates.  
 
WTO s tatistics on commercial services trade for the second quarter will not be available until late r 
in October, but Chart 4 below shows developments through the first quarter . Services trade overall 
was down 9% year -on-year in the first quarter, largely as a result of continued weakness in 
Travel, which was down 62%. In contrast, the category Other services, which includes financial 
and other business services, was up 6% compare d to the previous year. Year -on-year growth in 
services trade is likely to turn positive in the second quarter due to a low base value in 2020 , but 
this should not be automatically interpreted  as a turnaround.  The WTO's most recent Services 
Trade Barometer  of 23 September  suggests that trade in services may be stabilizing along a lower 
trend than before the pandemic .  
 
  
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April May June Q1 Q2PRESS/ 889 
 
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  Chart 4: World commercial services tr ade by sector, 2008Q1 -2021Q1  
Year-on-year percentage change  
 
Source:  WTO-UNCTAD -ITC estimates . 
Supplemental Indicators  
The WTO has been tracking timely, high -frequency trade -related indicators to better understand 
trends in merchandise and commercial services trade. A selection of these is presented below to 
provide additional context to the trade forecast and statistics.  
 
Purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from IHS -Markit are based on surveys of hundreds of 
businesses i n more than 40 countries. PMIs for individual countries are aggregated into a global 
index, with values greater than 50 indicating expansion and values less than 50 denoting 
contraction. The Global Manufacturing PMI and certain sub -indices shown in Chart 5  casts light on 
the recent problems of port congestion (with delivery times becoming much longer, as shown by 
the steeply deteriorating sub -index far below 50) and high prices for shipping services.  
 
0%
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Q1 2021Year -on-year percentage changeTransport
TravelOther 
services
Total 
services PRESS/ 889 
 
- 8 - 
 
  Chart 5: Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indic es (PMIs), January 2018 - 
August 2021  
Index, base = 50  
 
Source:  IHS-Markit.  
 
Note:  Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.  
 
Despite COVID -related interruptions, container throughput in international ports remains at or 
near record levels. Meanwhile , shipping rates have risen dramatically, exemplified by a more than 
four-fold rise in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index over the past year. The spike in shipping 
rates coincided with a strong rebound in the New Export Orders component of the global 
manufacturing PMI, indicating surging global import demand. Prices of manufacturing inputs and 
final goods also rose, while stocks of finished goods dipped, and delivery times stretched out.  
 
The New Export Orders index peaked at 54.9 in May of this year but has since fallen to 51.0 in 
August, suggesting a cooling of global import demand. At the same time input and output prices 
have started to ease, delivery times have plateaued, and stocks of  goods have turned up. This 
suggest that high shipping rates and backlogs of ships waiting to unload goods in ports may have 
peaked, although it could take some time for prices to come down and for backlogs to clear.  
 
A global shortage of semiconductors h as recently disrupted supply chains in the automobile 
industry, leading to cuts in production and sales. This is illustrated by Chart 6, which shows recent 
declines in car sales in the United States, the European Union and China. The right panel of the 
chart shows that trade in semiconductors was falling long before the pandemic but that it has 
recently picked up again, which should help restore production of vehicles that use semiconductors 
intensively. Although leading semiconductor producing countries ha ve had COVID -19 outbreaks 
recently, the problem seems to be one of demand for chips exceeding supply. This chart suggests 
that trade in automotive products may dip in the third quarter of 2021, but that any such decline 
will probably be temporary.  
 
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Headline Global PMI New Export Orders Index30354045505560657075
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Stocks of Finished Goods Index Suppliers' Delivery Times IndexPRESS/ 889 
 
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  Chart 6: Automobile sales in major markets and semiconductor exports of leading 
suppliers, January 2015 - August 2021  
1000 vehicles seasonally adjusted and Index 2015=100  
 
Sources:  China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), European Automobile Manufacturers’ 
Association (ACEA), and U.S. Federal Reserve for car sales. National customs statistics accessed 
through Trade Data Monitor (TDM) for semiconductor exports.  
 
Finally, Chart 7 below shows the daily volume and average tone of news reports containing 
phrases related to economic activity, as monitored by the GDELT Project Summary Service . Such 
indicators can be used as signals of changing economic sentiment. At the start of the pandemic 
volume rose sharply and tone became extreme ly negative, as media reports anticipated a strong 
economic downturn. Once measures to contain the spread of the SARS -CoV-2 virus were taking 
effect and vaccines were on the way , volume declined and tone improved. The recent volume of 
press reports related  to economic activity has been steady and the tone of reporting has seen 
some recent down ward then upward variation, implying some short -lived uncertainty around 
otherwise rather stable expectations on economic activity.  
 
 
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Semconductor exports of leading suppliers (Index, 2015=100)PRESS/ 889 
 
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  Chart 7: GDELT phrases related to economic activity, 01 September 2020 – 
27 September 2021  
% and index  
 
Source:  The GDELT Project Summary Service.  
 
 
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