PRESS/ 902 
 
12 April 2022  
(22-2965) Page: 1/10 
    
 
PRESS RELEASE  
E M B A R G O  
N O T  F O R  P U B L I C A T I O N ,  O R  D I S T R I B U T I O N  B Y  N E W S  A G E N C I E S  U N T I L  
1 3 . 0 0  H  G E N E V A  T I M E  1 2  A P R I L  2 0 2 2  
 
TRADE STATISTICS AND OUT LOOK 
Russia -Ukraine  conflict puts fragile global trade recove ry at risk  
Prospects for the global economy have darkened since 
the outbreak of war in Ukraine on 24 February , 
prompting WTO economists to reassess  their 
projections for world trade over the next two years . 
The organization now  expects  merchandise trade 
volume growth of 3.0% in 2022 —down from its 
previous forecast of 4.7%—and 3.4% 2023 , but these 
estimates are less certain  than usual  due to  the fluid 
nature of the conflict  (Table 1) .  
 
The most immediate economic impact of the crisis has 
been a sharp rise in  commodity prices . Despite their  
small shares in world trade and output, Russia an d 
Ukraine are key suppliers  of essential goods  including  
food, energy , and fertilizer s, supplies of which are now 
threatened  by the war . Grain s hipments  through Black 
Sea ports  have already been halted , with potentially 
dire consequences for food security in poor  countries .  
 
The war is not the only factor weighing on world trade 
at the moment . Lockdowns in China  to prevent the 
spread of COVID -19 are again disrupt ing seaborne 
trade at a time when supply chain pressures  appeared 
to be easing. This could lead to  renewed shortages of 
manufacturing inputs  and higher  inflation .  
 
"The war in Ukraine  has created immense  human 
suffering , but it has also damaged  the global economy  
at a critical juncture. Its impact will be felt around the 
world, particularly  in low -income countries , where food 
accounts for a large fraction of household spending ," MAIN POINTS  
• World  merchandise trade volume is 
expected to grow 3.0% in 2022  (down 
from 4.7% previously) and 3. 4% in 2023 , 
but t hese figures  may be  subject to 
revision due to uncertainty about the 
course of the conflict in Ukraine .  
• World  GDP at market exchange rates  is 
expected to increase  by 2.8% in 202 2 
after rising  5.7% in 2021. Output  growth 
should pick up to  3.2% in 202 3, 
assuming persistent  geopolitical and  
economic uncertainty.   
• The CIS region should see a 12.0% 
decline in imports and a 7.9% drop in 
GDP  in 2022, but exports should grow 
by 4.9% as other countries continue to 
rely on Russian energy . Regional 
disparities may narrow due to weak 
import demand in Europe and Asia.  
• The volume of merchandise trade rose 
9.8% in 2021. The US$ value of this 
trade grew 26% to US$ 22.4  trillion. The 
value of commercial services trade was 
also up 15% in 2021 to US$ 5. 7 trillion . 
• Services trade will also be affected by 
the conflict in Ukraine, including  in the 
transport sector , which covers  container 
shipping and passenger air  transport .  PRESS/ 902 
 
- 2 - 
 
  Director -General Ngozi Okonjo -Iweala said. " Smaller supplies and higher prices for food  mean that  
the world's poor could be fo rced to do without . This must not be allowed to happen. This is not the 
time to turn inward. In a crisis, more trade is needed to ensure stable, equitable access to 
necessities . Restricting  trade will threaten the wellbeing of families and businesses and m ake more 
fraught the task of building a durable economic recovery from COVID -19," the Director -General 
went on to say.  
  
She said governments and multilateral organizations must work together to facilitate trade at a 
time of sharp  inflationary pressures on  essential supplies  and growing pressures on supply chains.  
 
"History teaches  us that dividing the  world economy into rival blocs and turning our backs on  the 
poorest countries le ads neither to prosperity nor to peace. The WTO can play a pivotal  role by 
providing a forum where countries can  discuss their differences without resorting to force , and it 
deserves to be supported in that mission ," she said. 
 
With little  hard data  on the economic impact  of the conflict , WTO economists have had to rely on 
simulations to generate reasonable assumptions about GDP growth  in 2022 and 2023 . Current 
estimates based on the WTO Global Trade Model capture (1) the direct impact  of the war in 
Ukraine , including  destruction of infrastructure  and increased trade cost s; (2) the impact of 
sanctions on Russia, including the blocking of Russian banks from the SWIFT settlement system; 
and (3) reduced  aggregate demand in the rest of  the world  due to falling  business/ consumer 
confidence and rising  uncertainty .  
 
Under these assumptions, world GDP a t market exchange rates is expected to grow  by 2.8% in 
2022, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast  of 4.1% . Growth should pick up to 
3.2% in 2023, close to the average rate of 3.0% between 2010 and 2019. Output  in the 
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region—which excludes Ukraine —is expected to see a 
sharp 7.9% drop, leading  to a 12.0%  contraction  in the region's imports .  
 
Chart 1 shows quarterly world merchandise trade volume estimates through the end of 2023, 
including error bands indicating confidence intervals associated with the forecast. Given current 
GDP assumptions, merchandise trade volume growth in 2022 could be as low as 0.5% or as high 
as 5.5%. These projections will be updated in October , but an earlier revision could be issued if 
incoming data warrant it. The forecast takes into account higher frequency data for selected 
economies, including monthly statistics on container throughput of U.S. and Chinese ports in order 
to capture port con gestion in these countries.  
 
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 3 - 
 
  Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise trade, 2015Q1 -2023Q4  
Seasonally -adjusted volume index, 2015=100  
 
9095100105110115120125130135
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
2018Q1
2018Q3
2019Q1
2019Q3
2020Q1
2020Q3
2021Q1
2021Q3
2022Q1
2022Q3
2023Q1
2023Q3
 
Source:  WTO and UNCTAD, WTO Secretariat estimates.  
 
Note:  Each shaded region represents a + -0.5 standard error band around the central forecast.  
 
Chart 2 illustrates the recent rise in world fuel prices , which pre -dates the conflict in Ukraine . The 
benchmark Brent crude oil price for March came in at US$ 118 per barrel,  up 38% from its level  in 
January and up 81% year-on-year. (It should be noted that daily prices have moderated  recently,  
from a peak of US$ 128 per barrel on 8 March to US$ 104 per barrel on 1 April. )  
 
Unlike oil prices, natural gas prices tend to diverge strongly across regions . The price of natural 
gas in Europe rose 45% between January and March to US$ 41.0 per million Btu, whereas  prices 
remained relatively  low in the United States at around US$ 4.9 per million Btu.  Higher oil prices 
may reduce real incomes and import demand  worldwide, while higher natural gas prices would 
probably  have a greater impact in Europe.  
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 4 - 
 
  Chart 2: Monthly average prices for crude oil and natural gas, January 2018 – 
March  2022  
US$ per barrel and US$ per million Btu  
 
020406080100120140
2018M01
2018M03
2018M05
2018M07
2018M09
2018M11
2019M01
2019M03
2019M05
2019M07
2019M09
2019M11
2020M01
2020M03
2020M05
2020M07
2020M09
2020M11
2021M01
2021M03
2021M05
2021M07
2021M09
2021M11
2022M01
2022M03$/bbl
Crude oil, Brent051015202530354045
2018M01
2018M03
2018M05
2018M07
2018M09
2018M11
2019M01
2019M03
2019M05
2019M07
2019M09
2019M11
2020M01
2020M03
2020M05
2020M07
2020M09
2020M11
2021M01
2021M03
2021M05
2021M07
2021M09
2021M11
2022M01
2022M03$/MMBtu
Natural gas, US Natural gas, Europe
 
Source:  World Bank, US Energy Information Administration , Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  
 
In the two decades  before  the global financial crisis, world merchandise trade volume grew around  
twice as fast as world GDP at market exchange rates, but the ratio between trade growth and GDP 
growth fell to around 1:1  on average after the crisis . If the current forecast is realized, this ratio 
would be 1.1:1 in both 2022 and 2023 , suggesting no fund amental change in the relationship 
between trade and output . Risks to the forecast are mixed and difficult to asses s objectively. T here 
is some upside potential if the war in  Ukraine  ends sooner than expected , but substantial downside 
risks could emerge if fighting persists for a long time or if the conflict escalates.  
 
Chart 3 shows quarterly merchandise trade volume  indice s by region from the first quarter  of 2019 
to the final quarter  of 2023 , at the end of the forecast period . Regional disparities  in the forecast s 
persist , but Europe is now expected  to underperform on the import side along with Africa and the 
CIS. The latter  is mostly due to  sanctions against Russia . Meanwhile, Middle East import volumes 
are expected to pick up as higher  oil prices boost export revenues , allowing countries in the region 
to import  more. Weakness in Europe is partly due to the fact that Ukraine is included in th is 
country group , dragging  down the regional average . The low level of imports  in Africa is partl y due 
to unexpected declines in the second half  of 2021, which are projected  forward into the future .   
 
Export volumes show slow growth in most regions , including the CIS , since Russia is still able to 
export fuels. If the situation  were to change, we might see stronger export volume growth in other 
fuel producing regions.  
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 5 - 
 
  Chart 3: Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2019Q1 -2023Q4  
Volume index, 2019=100  
708090100110120130
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2023Q4Exports
North America South America a Europe
CIS b Africa Middle East
Asia708090100110120130
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2023Q4Imports
North America South America a Europe
CIS b Africa Middle East
Asia
 
a Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
b Refers to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member.  
 
Source:  WTO and UNCTAD.  
 
Table 1 summarizes annual merchandise trade volume  growth  since 2018 and projections for 2022 
and 2023. Annual volume indices sometimes differ slightly from the quarterly indices due to 
differences in methodology, but they general ly tell the same story. In addition to the standard 
WTO region s, the table also includes experimental forecast s for Least -Developed  Countries (LDCs).  
 
The year 2021 saw a sharp rebound in trade volumes after the pandemic -induced slump of 2020, 
but growth might have been stronger without recurring waves of COVID -19 during  the year . Every 
region had export growth below the world  averag e of 9.8% except for Asia, which saw its exports 
increase by 13.8%. The situation was reversed on the import side, where North America, South 
America, the CIS and Asia all recorded above average growth.   
 
The forecast foresees  2022 export volume growth of 3.4 % in North America, -0.3%  in South 
America, 2.9% in Europe, 4.9% in the CIS, 1.4% in Africa, 11.0% in the Middle East,  and 2.0% for 
Asia. It also anticipates import growth  of 3.9% in North America, 4.8% in South America, 3.7%  in 
Europe, -12.0% in the CIS, 2.5%  in Africa, 11.7% in the Middle East and 2.0% in Asia. LDCs 
should see their export and import volumes  increase by 3.5% and 6.6% respectively in 202 2. 
Except for the Middle East, all regions saw forecasts for 2023 revised downward. Trade costs 
should  rise in the short run  as a result of sanctions, export restrictions, energy costs and 
disruptions  in transport due to COVID -19. 
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 6 - 
 
  Table 1: Merchandise trade  volume and real GDP, 2018 -2023 a 
Annual % change  
 
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022P 2023P
Volume of world merchandise trade b3.0 0.2 -5.0 9.8 3.0 3.4
Exports
North America 3.8 0.3 -8.8 6.3 3.4 5.3
South America c-0.9 -1.2 -4.6 6.8 -0.3 1.8
Europe 1.8 0.6 -7.8 7.9 2.9 2.7
CIS d4.0 -0.3 -1.2 1.4 4.9 2.8
Africa 3.1 -0.3 -7.5 5.1 1.4 1.1
Middle East 4.6 -1.9 -9.3 7.3 11.0 2.9
Asia 3.7 0.9 0.5 13.8 2.0 3.5
Imports
North America 5.1 -0.6 -6.1 12.6 3.9 2.5
South America c4.8 -1.7 -11.2 25.8 4.8 3.1
Europe 1.9 0.3 -7.3 8.1 3.7 3.3
CIS d4.0 8.3 -5.5 10.7 -12.0 -5.2
Africa 5.4 3.0 -11.8 4.2 2.5 3.9
Middle East -4.1 5.2 -9.8 5.3 11.7 6.2
Asia 5.0 -0.4 -1.0 11.1 2.0 4.5
Real GDP at market exchange rates 3.2 2.5 -3.4 5.7 2.8 3.2
North America 2.8 2.1 -3.8 5.5 2.9 2.1
South America c0.4 -0.5 -6.8 6.3 1.9 2.7
Europe 2.0 1.7 -5.9 5.8 2.3 2.5
CIS d3.1 2.4 -2.5 4.6 -7.9 -0.1
Africa 3.2 3.0 -2.5 4.6 3.2 3.9
Middle East 0.9 0.4 -4.5 2.8 3.4 3.8
Asia 4.9 4.0 -0.9 6.1 3.8 4.7
Memo: Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
Volume of merchandise exports 5.1 -0.2 -2.1 4.9 3.5 3.8
Volume of merchandise imports 5.0 2.7 -11.3 9.5 6.6 8.9
Real GDP at market exchange rates 4.6 5.0 0.5 1.3 3.7 5.8
 
 
a Figures for 2022 and 2023 are projections.  
b Average of exports and imports.  
c Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.  
d Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including  certain associate and former 
member States.  
 
Note:  These projections incorporate mixed -data sampling (MIDAS) techniques for selected countries to 
take advantage of higher -frequency data such as container throughput and financial risk indices.  
 
Source:  WTO for trade, consensus estimates for GDP.  PRESS/ 902 
 
- 7 - 
 
  Trade developments  in value terms  
 
The WTO's trade forecast is released in conjunction with annual merchandise and commercial 
services trade statistics in current U .S. dollar  terms.  These figures can be downloaded from the 
WTO's online database at stats.wto.org . Merchandise trade growth in nominal terms diverged 
strongly  from growth in (real) volume terms in 2021 due to strong price fluctuations  over the 
course of the year.  World merchandise trade as measured by the average of exports and imports 
rose 26% in 2021, which implies that export and import prices jumped 15%  for the year  on 
average . The dollar value of trade in fuels and mining products  was up 59%, agricultural products 
were up 19%, and manufactures were up 21%.  
 
Chart 4 shows estimated year -on-year and 24 -month growth rates for selected categories of  
manufacture d goods  in 2021 . Quarterly developments show steady year -on-year growth in c ertain 
products (iron and steel, chemicals, integrated circuits) and weaker growth for others (clothing, 
machinery).  Trade values for pharmaceuticals, computers and integrated circuits w ere actually 
higher in 2021 than before the pandemic, probably due to high demand for C OVID-19 vaccines 
and increased preval ence of remote working. In contrast, trade in automotive products was up 
14% year -on-year in 2021 but down 4% compared to 2019.  
 
Chart 4: Year -on-year growth in manufactured goods trade, 2021  
% change in US$ values  
 
153426
2325
1239
-4-91415
62156
1729
1714
2714 1521
-217
-20020406080100
2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021/2019 2021/2020
 
Source:  WTO estimates based on partner statistics.  
 
World trade in commercial s ervices was up 15% year -on-year in 2021, boosted  by demand for 
transport services , which grew 33% (Chart 5) . Growth of travel exports was positive but it 
remained weak, as travel restrictions were only partially eased  during  the year . The category 
Other services, which includes financial and business services, was up 12% compared to the 
previous year.  
 
Western sanctions on Russian  businesses and individuals are likely to have a strong effect  on 
commercial services trade.  Russia  is a net services importer , with imports i n 2021 valued at  US$ PRESS/ 902 
 
- 8 - 
 
  74 billion and exports totall ing US$ 55 billion . Russia is ranked 24th among  services exporter s 
(13th excluding intra -EU trade) , with a share in world trade of 0.9% . It is ranked 19th among 
importers  (11th excluding intra -EU) with a 1.4% share  in world  trade.  
 
In 2019, the E uropean Union accounted for more than 42% of Russia's services imports and 
31.1% of its services exports. In the same year Russia also sourced services from Turkey (7.7%), 
the United Kingdom (5.1%), the United States (4.0%), China (3.7%), and Switzerland (3.3%) , 
among others . The United States (6.5%), China (6.2%), Switzerland (6.1%), and the United 
Kingdom (4.8%) were main non-EU destinations for Russia n services exports.  
 
Prior to the pandemic, travel/tourism and air transport services were the largest traded services  by 
Russia, accounting for 46% of its exports and 36% of  its imports. These services, already hit hard 
by the pandemic , may be heavily  affected by economic sanctions. Ireland is exposed due to the 
prominent role of the country in  operational leasing of air craft. Overall , Russian  payments for 
operational leasing of aircraft, boats, etc. from the EU reached $3.9 billion in 2019, of which $2.6 
billion were for leasing services from Ireland. In 2020,  Russian operational leasing  imports fell 
44% due to pandemic -related travel restrictions.    
 
Intellectual property services were the third biggest  category  of services imported by Russia. The 
European Union , Switzerland, the United States , the U nited Kingdom , the Republic of Korea, and 
Japan tog ether  provided 96% of Russia's imports  in 2019 , worth  some US$ 6.6 billion . This 
include s fees for the use of patents, outputs from research and development , industrial 
processes /designs, franchises and trademarks, among others . 
 
Chart 5: Year -on-year grow th in world commercial services trade, 2019 -2021  
% change in US$ values  
 
3
025 5
-18 -18
-610
-121533
812 12
-80-60-40-2002040Total commercial
services Transport TravelOther commercial
servicesGoods-related
services
2019 2020 2021
 
Note:  Average of exports and imports.  
 
Source:  WTO-UNCTAD estimates  in cooperation with ITC . 
 
Detailed quarterly and annual statistics on merchandise and commercial services trade can be 
downloaded from stats.wto.org . A statistical supplement showing country ranks and shares in 
world trade can be downloaded here. 
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 9 - 
 
  Supplemental Indicators  
 
The WTO tracks a number of timely, high -frequency trade -related indicators to better understand 
trends in merchandise and commercial services trad e. A selection of these is presented below to 
provide additional context to the trade statistics  and forecast .  
 
The latest RWI/ISL  container throughput index showed seasonally -adjusted throughput declining 
3.6 points to 117.1 in February  (Chart 6) . The index incorporates container data on container 
handling  at 94 international ports, account ing for 64 percent of the global total . Chinese ports saw 
the biggest decline in  March , but European ports also registered a substantial  decline . The data 
could  be influenced by seasonal adjustment s, but it could  also reflect the early stages of the 
conflict in Ukraine.  The fact that the shipping rate s have been steady or declining at the same time 
suggest that the dip in throughput represents falling d emand for shipping services rather than 
reduced supply.  
 
Chart 6: RWI/ISL container throughput index, January 2015 - February 2022  
Index, 2015=100  
8090100110120130140
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Original series Seasonally and working day adjusted
 
Source:  Leibniz Institute for Economic Research.  
 
Purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from IHS-Markit are based on surveys of hundreds of 
businesses in more than 40 countries . These are aggregated into a global index and several sub -
indices , with values greater than 50 indicating expansion and values less than 50 denoting 
contraction  (Chart 7). The Headline Global  PMI (53.0) remained above the threshold value of 50 in 
March, suggest ing that manufacturing output may still be expanding  but at a reduced pace. 
Meanwhile, N ew Export Orders fell to 48.2, its lowest level since July 2020 , signalling slo wer 
growth or possibly contraction in world trade.  Supply chains  have been  hampered in recent 
months by long delivery times and shortages of production inputs such as semiconductors . The 
indices shown in the right panel of Chart 7 suggest that these issues  are not yet  resolved.  A rise in 
input and output prices and an uptick in delivery times in March 2022 suggest continued supply -
demand imbalances that could contribute to inflation in the coming months .  
 PRESS/ 902 
 
- 10 - 
 
  Chart 7: Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), January 2018 - 
March 2022  
Index, base = 50  
 
2530354045505560
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Headline Global PMI New Export Orders Index3035404550556065707580
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Input Prices Index Output Prices Index
Stocks of Finished Goods Index Suppliers' Delivery Times Index
 
Source:  IHS-Markit.  
 
Note:  Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.  
 
Finally, Chart 8 below shows the daily volume and average tone of news reports containing 
phrases related to economic activity, as monitored by the GDELT Project Summary Service. 
Although the intensity  of reporting on these issues remained flat in recent weeks, the tone took a 
negative turn in late  February. The fact tha t that this downturn coincided with the start of 
hostilities in Ukraine suggest that the conflict may be damag ing economic sentiment .  
 
Chart 8: GDELT phrases related to economic activity, 01 September 2020 – 30 March 
2022  
% and index  
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.50
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
01/09/2019
29/09/2019
27/10/2019
24/11/2019
22/12/2019
19/01/2020
16/02/2020
15/03/2020
12/04/2020
10/05/2020
07/06/2020
05/07/2020
02/08/2020
30/08/2020
27/09/2020
25/10/2020
22/11/2020
20/12/2020
17/01/2021
14/02/2021
14/03/2021
11/04/2021
09/05/2021
06/06/2021
04/07/2021
01/08/2021
29/08/2021
26/09/2021
24/10/2021
21/11/2021
19/12/2021
16/01/2022
13/02/2022
13/03/2022
Average tone% of monitored articles
Volume intensity (left axis) Average tone (right axis)
 
Source:  The GDELT Project Summary Service.  
END