G/AG/GEN/197  
 
9 March 2022 
(22-2120) Page: 1/3 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
 
REPORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL (IGC)  
COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE MEETING, 15 -16 MARCH 2022.  
The following submission, dated 8 March 2022, is being circulated at the request of the International 
Grains Council (IGC).  
 
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Global grains trade under the Marrake sh Agreement  
Global grain trade volumes have increased since the Marrakesh Agreement. Soyabean trade has 
increased most spectacularly, rising by more than 200% over the two last decades. In 2021 close 
to half of all production was traded on the global market. Although wheat remains the most widely 
traded of all grain and oilseed commodities, growth has been compar atively slower, with volumes 
increasing by 93% across the same period. Nevertheless, wheat trade is directed into a far larger 
number of importing countries, with traded volumes representing a quarter of overall production.  
The IGC maintains a series of in dicators to monitor developments in the physical market, including 
the Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), a trade -weighted measure of international daily price 
movements across seven core commodities, calculated daily using 34 USD-denominated export 
quotatio ns at leading origins.  
Figure 1: IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (Jan 2000=100)  
  
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  1  WHEAT - TRADE IN 2021/22 (JULY/JUNE)  
1.1.  With global buying interest showing little sign of abating despite elevated prices, world trade 
in 2021/22 (Jul/Jun) is forecast to reach a record 196.9  million tonnes ( m t) (+3% year on year  
(y/y)). Recent upwards revisions to the Council’s forecast partly reflects larger than expected year -
to-date purchases by some buyers in Asia, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and 
South Korea.  
1.2.  Partly linked to small local harvests and high prices, exports by Canada and the United States 
of America  are forecast to drop y/y, pegged at 16.0m t (27.6m  t last year) and 22.8m  t (26.5m  t), 
respectively. Conversely, exports by Argentina are forecast to be third largest on record, estimated 
at 14.1m t (10.1m  t). Relatively small exporters - Brazil and India - have boosted market presence 
this season, with shipments aided by record domestic outturns. Owing to huge sales to Banglad esh 
and unusually large dispatches to some Asian destinations, India's exports are forecast to reach 
6.5m t (3.5m  t), potentially the most since 2012/13.  
1.1  Preliminary prospects for trade in 2022/23 (July/June)  
1.3.  Assuming some recovery in production across Nea r East Asia, global trade in 2022/23 (Jul/Jun) 
is expected to contract by 2% y/y, to 193m t, the second largest volume ever. China's purchases 
may also retreat further from the 2020/21 peak, but potentially smaller outturns could underpin 
import needs in E urope, and parts of South America and North Africa.  
1.4.  With envisaged softer global demand and larger surpluses in the leading exporters, competition 
for business is set to strengthen in the season ahead. Improved local harvests could see Canada, 
Kazakhstan a nd Russia re -gain some market share from Australia, the E uropean Union and Ukraine, 
while the US  shipments are seen little changed y/y and slightly below the average level.  
2  RICE TRADE IN 2022 (JAN/DEC)  
2.1.  Trade in 2022 (Jan/Dec) is anticipated to retreat from  the prior year's record. However, at 
49.1m t, volumes are expected to remain well above average.  
2.2.  Deliveries to sub -Saharan Africa (including cross border trade and re -exports) are anticipated 
to reach a peak of 18.7m t, tied to population -driven gains in food use and limited production growth. 
In North Africa, arrivals may be underpinned by a partial switch to rice owing to tight supplies of 
high-quality milling wheat. While India is expected to remain the world's leading exporter, shipments 
are seen falli ng to 17.5m t on reduced South Asian demand and increased competition from 
alternative suppliers. Amid more competitive prices, Thailand's monthly dispatches accelerated in 
the second half of 2021, with volumes in the current year potentially reaching 7.8m  t. 
2.1  Preliminary prospects for 2022/23  
2.3.  The Council's expectations for world rice acreage in 2022/23 are highly tentative given that the 
start of planting campaigns in key producers is a considerable time away in most regions. 
Nevertheless, on the basis of a rea gains in Asia and, to a lesser extent, in Africa and the Americas, 
the global area for harvesting is predicted to increase slightly y/y, to a record of 166  million hectare 
(m ha), as production establishes a new peak. Within the total, combined acreage  in the five major 
exporters is projected to expand by 1% y/y.  
2.4.  With food use shaping global rice consumption trends, uptake in 2022/23 is tentatively 
expected to rise on population growth. However, gains may be pared by ongoing dietary shifts in 
some of As ia's largest markets. The outlook for world trade in 2023 (Jan/Dec) is tentative. 
Nevertheless, demand is expected to remain robust, including from sub -Saharan Africa, where 
further consumption gains could push up trade to a new high. India is likely to re main by far the 
world's largest supplier of competitively priced supplies.  
3  MAIZE TRADE IN 2021/22 (JULY/JUNE)  
3.1.  Mainly because of a predicted pullback in purchases by China, world trade in 2021/22 (Jul/Jun) 
is forecast to contract by 5% from the prior year's  peak, to 178.8m t. Amid tight feed grain G/AG/GEN/197  
 
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  availabilities in the Prairies, purchases by Canada are forecast to rise to 3.5m t, sourced almost 
entirely from the United States of America . Imports by China are seen at a larger than average 
16.5m t, albeit pote ntially down by more than 40% from the season before.  
3.2.  The United States of America  will remain the world’s dominant exporter, but with 
shipments  (Sep/Aug) seen slightly lower y/y, at 63.5m t (69.9m  t). Although dispatches from Brazil 
during the latter mont hs of the marketing year (Mar/Feb) far exceeded expectations, with January 
shipments 15% higher y/y, total shipments are seen dropping to a five -season low of 20.5m  t amid 
production problems and a resulting drop in exportable supplies.  
3.1  Preliminary prospec ts for 2022/23  
3.3.  Ahead of the northern hemisphere spring planting season, high input costs and limited nearby 
fertiliser supplies could potentially result in some pullback in maize acreage in some growers. 
However, given strong market prices, only minor redu ctions are expected in the United States of 
America , Ukraine and the E uropean Union. Including tentative projections for further increases in 
South American sowings, which are at least seven months away, global harvested area is seen little 
changed y/y, at  a larger than average 204.1m ha.  
3.4.  Global consumption is projected to increase further in 2022/23, with all demand components 
provisionally seen higher y/y. Rising meat consumption will likely support a further broad based 
expansion in feed use. The ongoin g economic recovery and gradual rollback of remaining COVID -19 
restrictions should also provide a favourable backdrop for growth in demand for maize -based biofuel 
and starch. While much may depend on China's future import needs, global trade is forecast to  rise, 
albeit likely remaining short of the 2020/21 peak.  
4  SOYABEAN TRADE IN 2021/22 (OCT/SEP)  
4.1.  Against the backdrop of worsening prospects for production and availabilities in South American 
exporters, chiefly Brazil, the Council's expectations for world t rade in 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) are scaled 
back from January. Moreover, with some importers set to ration demand for shrinking surpluses, 
volumes are placed at 161.2m t (160.9m  t), including reductions for China, the E uropean Union, 
Argentina and a range of smal ler buyers. Furthermore, the situation will be particularly disconcerting 
for importers in some regions given that it comes in the face of existing supply tightness and high 
prices for rapeseed/canola and derivatives.  
4.2.  Reflecting a sizeable fall in shipment s to China, but with other buyers also taking in less, the 
Council's forecast for US exports 2021/22 (Sep/Aug) is placed at 56.7m t ( -8% y/y).  
4.3.  The Council's outlook for local MY 2022/23 (Feb/Jan) exports by Brazil is placed at 82.1m t, 
down by 7% y/y. Alth ough sizeable volumes are anticipated in the early part of the season, with the 
total for February shipments likely to be the biggest on record, a smaller harvest will cut into 
potential exports in future months.  
4.1  Preliminary prospects for 2022/23  
4.4.  With tightening world market availabilities and elevated international prices likely to elicit a 
supply response, the 2022/23 global area for harvesting is tentatively anticipated to expand by 
about 2% y/y, to a record of 133.9m ha. Assuming trend -like yields a re achieved, and reflecting a 
heavy drop in production in 2021/22, world output could recover strongly.  
4.5.  World consumption is projected to increase in 2022/23 on continued modest gains in Asia. 
Growth in uptake in food and industrial market segments is also  seen contributing to the expansion. 
The outlook for world trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) will hinge on demand from Asia (China), but with 
a range of smaller buyers in other regions, including in Europe, Africa and the America, likely to 
contribute to growth i n volumes. While US exports could advance after the prior season's fall, Brazil's 
share of global import demand is predicted to increase.  
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