G/AG/GEN/169  
 
18 September 2020  
(20-6307) Page: 1/5 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
 
COVID -19 AND AGRICULTURE  
SUBMISSION BY THE FAO  
The following submission, dated 17 September 2020 , is being circulated at the request of 
the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).  
 
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1  COVID -19 AND FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS  
1.1.  The combined impacts of COVID -19, the resulting containment measures and subsequent 
global economic recessions will make hunger and malnutrition worse, increasing the number of 
people who are undernourished and poor, especially in low -income countries that depend on food 
imports. It is likely to erase a decade of progress on poverty reduction. The Food and Agricultural 
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has been working since the onset of the outbreak on 
assessing the threats of t he pandemic to food security and nutrition and providing evidence -based 
policy recommendations to Members, to avert a health crisis becoming a food crisis.  
1.2.  COVID -19 is unique in that it has resulted in a dual shock to both supply and demand, which 
are fel t at different points in time. On the supply side, there are widely different views on how long 
the shocks would last, how they would affect the international and domestic markets, and what 
remedial actions could best soften the impact of shocks. On the de mand side, however, there is a 
general agreement that agricultural demand and trade would slow down due to contraction in 
economic activity, rising unemployment and lower incomes. Furthermore, the pandemic threatens 
to affect the global economy at a level not seen since the Great Depression. This is a serious threat 
because it means people who must earn a wage to eat could lose their incomes and not be able to 
buy food. As countries move to strike a balance between keeping people safe and getting the 
econom y back on track by easing lockdown measures, they must protect poor and vulnerable 
people's access to food and nutrition.  
1.3.  Following the COVID -19 outbreak, the measures to control or mitigate the spread of the virus 
have put under stress many segments of t he supply chain. These include, inter alia, production and 
processing, logistics, trade and retail.  
1.4.  Concerning production and processing, for instance, restricted visa services implemented in 
various countries have led to reduced access of temporary worke rs, thus affecting harvests of several 
crops.1 In some cases, operations in industrial sites – including slaughterhouses2 and packaging 
plants3 - have been suspended or reduced to minimize the community transmission of the virus.  
 
1 FAO. (2020). Food Outlook, Biannual Report on Global Food Markets , June 2020. Rome: FAO.  
2 Food Dive. (2020). Tracking coronavirus closures at food and beverage factories . Retrieved from 
fooddive.com: https://www.fooddive.com/news/tracking -coronavirus -closures -at-food-and-beverage -
factories/5 76559/ . 
3 Rosenberg, M., Cooke, K., & Walljasper, C. (2020b, June 11). Coronavirus spreads among fruit and 
vegetable packers, worrying U.S. officials . Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us -health -
coronavirus -usa-farmworkers/coronavirus -spreads -among -fruit-and-vegetable -packers -worrying -us-officials -
idUSKBN23I1FO . G/AG/GEN/169  
 
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  1.5.  Regarding the logistics sector4, impacts have been manifold and varying depending on the 
product. The severe decline in commercial flights affected the distribution of  many perishable food 
products, namely fruits and vegetables, while problems also emerged at the harbours, as countries 
globally modified their operation protocols, ranging from quarantine measures to additional 
documentation and examination. This led to i ncreased risks for perishable goods on the one hand, 
and longer delays in supplying markets on the other. Disruptions have been reported also in relation 
to container and truck transport, following reductions in service operations. Using big data, 
FAO monitors trade and collects information on logistical issues, assesses how problems have been 
resolved and signals the market to reduce uncertainty. For example, the main delay in shipping has 
been happening during cargo unloading. Now it takes three days inst ead of one because of labour 
restrictions at ports. The delay is expensive for exporters, but they have been able to make up for 
it with the gains from exchange rates. Global shipping functions, notwithstanding the delay.  
1.6.  Further problems have been experi enced in the retailing of several agri -food products, including 
meat, vegetable oils and fruits and vegetables due to the closure of food services, restaurants, hotels 
and cafeterias, and the adverse effects on tourism, affecting demand particularly for hi gh value 
products.5 
2  COUNTRIES RESPONSES TO COVID -19 RELATED MARKET DISRUPTIONS  
2.1.  With the outbreak of COVID -19, countries globally started implementing trade policy responses 
to offset the shocks of the pandemic on food and agricultural markets.  
2.2.  Similar to  what happened during the 2007 -08 global food price crisis, and with the objective of 
ensuring sufficient supplies to domestic consumers and stable prices, some major exporting 
countries decided to impose export bans on specific commodities. However, these  have generally 
been limited and short -lived.6 Similarly, few Members imposed import restrictions or introduced 
requirements for certificates attesting negative COVID -19 test results for the shipments. In most 
cases, such measures were temporary in their application.7 FAO has been highlighting the 
importance of keeping markets open and the supply chains flowing smoothly in order to avert a 
global food security crisis.  
2.3.  On the other hand, to facilitate availability of critical food items and contain food pr ices, many 
Members decided to lower their existing import -restricting measures, including both tariff barriers 
and technical regulations. In fact, as it was the case during the 2007 -08 food price crisis, many 
importing countries responded to market uncerta inty by suspending or reducing import tariffs. In 
some cases, these policies applied to all food products. Likewise, to address disruptions that may 
have affected the operations of economic players, some Members temporarily relaxed their Technical 
Barriers  to Trade (TBT) measures on food products, including on content requirements and 
standards, and labelling requirements.8 Further to that, several countries increased flexibilities and 
efficiencies in trade -related procedures and implemented measures to fa cilitate the flow of 
agricultural goods and foodstuff. In fact, acknowledging the role of the containment measures in 
hampering normal trade operations, including the provision of certificates and other licenses and 
approvals needed for trading agricultura l products, governments implemented measures to accept 
electronic certificates of phytosanitary and veterinary certificates on a temporary basis, and simplify 
import licensing procedures for selected products.9 
2.4.  Concerning the measures put in place to supp ort producers, many developed countries adopted 
domestic support policies aiming mainly at protecting the incomes of farmers and processors. This 
was pursued by means of direct transfers, facilitated loans, as well as food purchases for domestic 
food aid. In some cases, custom tailored airfreight assistance programmes have been implemented 
to address some of the logistics and marketing bottlenecks caused by the pandemic and to support 
 
4 FAO. (2020). J. Schmidhuber, COVID -19: From a global health crisis to a global food crisis?  Rome: 
FAO. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/ca9509en/covid.pdf . 
5 FAO. (2020). Food Outlook, Biannual R eport on Global Food Markets , June 2020. Rome: FAO.  
6 Ibid. 
7 ITC. (2020). Market Access Map, COVID -19 Temporary Trade Measures . Retrieved from macmap.com: 
https://macmap.org/en/covid19 . 
8 Ibid. 
9 WTO. (2020). Trade costs in the time of global pandemic . Available at wto.com: 
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/t rade_costs_report_e.pdf . G/AG/GEN/169  
 
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  the trade operators.10 At the same time, some developing countries implem ented measures to 
expand their food reserves and/or decided to provide input subsidies or direct transfers. Moreover, 
to support consumers and prevent price spikes, some countries introduced price control policies.  
3  BEST PRACTICES TO MEET POLICY OBJECTIVES:  DRAWING ON EXPERIENCES11 
3.1.  Agricultural and trade policy responses can support production and income, contain price rises 
and protect consumers. They can play (and are playing) a very important role in addressing both 
supply and demand disruptions that emer ged in the current crisis.  
3.2.  Table 1 below describes policy responses used by governments during previous food and health 
crises and the best practices according to the objectives the policy is designed to achieve. Drawing 
from experiences, the aim of the p rovided information is to support countries in their 
decision -making processes.  
Table 1. Policy objectives and typical policy responses during food and health crises  
Policy objective  Typical policy responses  Suggested best practices  
Supply 
Side 
 Ensure sufficient 
domestic supply  • Export restrictions  
• Expansion of domestic 
procurement  • Avoid  pre-emptive export restrictions  
• Avoid  expansion of stock procurement where 
stock levels are already high  
• Encourage  market transparency and international 
governa nce mechanisms  
Ensure food safety  • Import bans  • Avoid  blanket import bans  
• Encourage  travel and trade corridors, following 
WHO recommendations  
Support producers, 
particularly poor/ 
smallholders  • Input subsidies to expand 
production  
• Direct income transfers  • Avoid  excessive subsidization, which may 
exacerbate market volatility  
• Encourage  balanced and time -bound domestic 
support measures to maintain adequate production 
levels and farmers’ income  
Demand 
Side 
 Contain rising 
prices  • Lowering of import tariffs  
• Domestic price controls  • Avoid  excessive imports’ stockpiling  
• Encourage  lowering import tariffs  
• Encourage  careful price controls’ design in 
partnership with private sector, if used  
Support poor 
consumers  • Cash transfers  
• Food aid/ transfers  • Encourage  cash transfers and/or domestic food 
aid, adapted to the current context  
Source: FAO. 2020. Agri -food markets and trade in the time of COVID -19. Rome.  
 
4  CURRENT FOOD MARKET SITUATION  
4.1.  Measures introduced by countries are influenced by market fundamentals, i.e. supply and 
demand conditions. Current market conditions for the major food commodities, namely cereals, 
indicate higher stock levels and favourable harvests this year. Furthermore, more diversified 
exporting and importing countries and t he increased digitalization of value chains and logistics have 
allowed better adjustments to supply disruptions. Compared to 2007 -08, the current 
supply -and-demand situation is very different with the world agricultural market conditions not 
supportive of a global food crisis. However, the deep economic recession could cause people, 
particularly in low -income countries, to experience a food security crisis by lack of income, 
constraining access to food. The extent of the pandemic's impact on food demand wou ld depend on 
the depth and length of the economic shock, the actual effect on employment, the availability of 
savings and access to credit and social safety nets.  
4.1  Cereals  
4.2.  According to the latest FAO estimates, the world production  forecast for cereals in 2 020 stands 
at 2,765 million tonnes, an all -time high and 58 million tonnes above the 2019 production. Coarse 
 
10 WTO. (2020). COVID -19 farm support packages and export -restrictive measures under scrutiny . 
Retrieved from wto.com: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e /news20_e/agri_18jun20_e.htm . 
11 Based on FAO. (2020). Agri-food markets and trade in the time of COVID -19. Rome. Available at 
fao.org: http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca8446en . G/AG/GEN/169  
 
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  grains constitute the lion's share, with production expected to reach 1 ,496 million tonnes, up 
52 million tonnes from last year. Wheat production i s forecasted to amount to 760 million tonnes, 
marginally below the good outturn of 2019. Rice production (milled basis) is expected to reach 
509 million tonnes, up 1.7 % from the 2019 reduced level.  
4.3.  FAO's forecast for world trade  in cereals in 2020/21 is p egged at 441.4 million tonnes, up 
6.3 million tonnes (1.6 %) from the 2019/20 level. The forecast for world wheat trade in 2020/21 
(July/June) has been raised to 181.5 million tonnes, marginally (0.3 %) above the 2019/20 record 
level. The forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2020/21 (July/June) points to a likely expansion 
of nearly 4.0 million tonnes (1.9 %) from the 2019/20, to almost 213 million tonnes.  
4.4.  With regard to cereal stocks , it is expected that they will reach 895.5 million tonnes by the 
close of 2021 seasons, representing a 1.7 % increase from their opening levels and marking an 
all-time high. Coarse grain stocks are projected to reach 432.1 million tonnes (2.6 % above their 
opening levels), wheat inventories are forecast at 282.2 million tonn es (2.0 % above their opening 
level) while those of rice are seen falling 1.0 % below their opening levels to 181 million tonnes, still 
the third highest volume on record. World stocks -to-use ratio is forecast at 31.8 %, a relatively high 
level from a histori cal perspective.  
4.2  Meat and dairy products  
4.5.  World total meat production  in 2020 is forecast to fall to 333 million tonnes (carcass weight 
equivalent), 1.7 % lower than in 2019, marking the second year of consecutive decline. Much of the 
contraction is again ex pected to reflect a sharp drop in global production of pig meat, largely 
concentrated in Asian countries affected by the African swine fever (ASF) viral disease, but also of 
bovine meat, especially in the United States of America (USA) and Australia. By co ntrast, global 
production of poultry meat is forecast to expand, albeit at half the rate recorded last year. Modest 
output growth is also predicted for ovine meat. The pace of expansion of all the meat sectors has 
been negatively affected by COVID -19 marke t disruptions, aggravating the effects of animal 
diseases.  
4.6.  International trade  in meat is forecast to grow to 37 million tonnes in 2020, up 2.4 % 
year-on-year, but considerably slower than the 6.8 % registered in 2019, in large part due to a likely 
reduction  in world meat consumption, consistent with the widespread economic downturn. Logistical 
bottlenecks, limitations in shipping and port backlogs are also likely to restrain growth in world meat 
trade.  
4.7.  Global milk production  is forecast to grow by 0.8 % in 2020 to 859 million tonnes, while trade 
in dairy product s could register the steepest contraction in three decades. World exports of dairy 
products in 2020 are forecast to contract by 4.1 % (3 million tonnes) to 74 million tonnes (in milk 
equivalent), which, if confirmed, would mark the sharpest year -on-year decline in three decades. 
This negative outlook is attributed to the COVID -19 lockdowns and physical distancing measures, as 
well as th e widespread economic slowdowns and low petroleum prices. The predicted overall decline 
in global dairy trade conceals significant variations at the individual dairy product level. Under 
current market conditions, exports of milk powders and butter are for ecast to decline most, while 
trade in cheese and most other dairy products may rise or remain stable.  
 
  G/AG/GEN/169  
 
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  ANNEX I - FAO: POLICY BRIEFS AND TECHNICAL NOTES  
- FAO Policy Brief:  Agri-food markets an d trade policy in the time of COVID -19; 
- FAO Policy Brief: Ample supplies to help shield food markets from the COVID -19 crisis ; 
- FAO Policy Brief: Food safety in the time of COVID -19; 
- FAO Technical Note: COVID -19 Channels of transmission to food and agriculture ; 
- FAO Technical Note: Comparing crises: Great Lockdown versus Great Recession ; 
- FAO Technical Note: COVID -19 and its impact on food security in the Near East and North 
Africa: How to respond?   
 
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