G/SG/N/6/MDG/4  
G/SG/N/7/MDG/4  
G/SG/N/11/MDG/4  
22 July 2019 
(19-4850) Page: 1/5 
Committee on Safeguards  Original:  French  
 
  
NOTIFICATION UNDER A RTICLE 12.1 (A) OF T HE AGREEMENT ON  
SAFEGUARDS ON INITIA TION OF AN INVESTIGA TION  
AND THE REASONS FOR IT 
NOTIFICATION UNDER A RTICLE 12.4 OF THE A GREEMENT ON SAFEGUAR DS BEFORE 
TAKING A PROVISIONAL  SAFEGUARD MEASURE REFERRED TO IN ARTIC LE 6 
NOTIFICATION UNDER A RTICLE 9, FOOTNOTE  2, 
OF THE AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS  
MADAGASCAR  
(Pasta)  
The following communication, dated 2 2 July 2 019, is being circulated at the request of the delegation 
of Madagascar.  
 
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In accordance with Articles 12.1 and 12.4 of the Agreement on Safeguards, Madagascar is notifying 
the Committee on Safeguards of the initiation of an investigation and before taking a provisional 
safeguard measure referred to in Article 6 of the Agreement, in  respect of imports of pasta in the 
form of spaghetti, macaroni or noodles or in any other form . Madagascar is also notifying the 
Committee, pursuant to Article 9, footnote 2, of the Agreement on Safeguards, of its decision not to 
apply the proposed safegu ard measure to imports from developing countries.  
A. NOTIFICATION UNDER ARTICLE 12.1 (A) OF THE AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS ON 
INITIATION OF AN INVESTIGATION AND THE REASONS FOR IT  
1. Date of initiation  
The investigation was initiated on 1 8 July 2 019, on which date the notice of initiation was published 
in the national newspapers authorized to receive legal notices ( L'Express De Madagascar , MIDI 
Madagasikara , La Vérité , and La Gazette de la Grande île ). 
2.  Product under consideration  
Pasta in the form of spaghetti , macaroni or noodles or in any other form, classified under Madagascar 
customs tariff codes 19021190, 19021990, 19022090 and 19023090.  
3.  Pasta -exporting countries  
The main countries exporting pasta to Madagascar are Egypt, Indonesia, Mauritius and Turkey.  
4.  Reasons justifying the initiation of the investigation  
The data available to the ANMCC have shown that pasta has been imported in such increased 
quantities that the increase has caused or threatens to cause serious injury to the domestic industry 
producin g the product that is like or directly competitive with the product under investigation, 
justifying the initiation.  
5.  Duration of the investigation  
The investigation will be conducted over a period of 9 months, and will not exceed 12 months.  G/SG/N/6/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/7/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/11/MDG/4  
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  6.  Further information  
Interested parties must make themselves known to the ANMCC, the investigating authority, within 
a period of 30 days after the initiation of the investigation.  
 
Replies to questionnaires, comments and any relevant information to be relayed to th e ANMCC must 
be sent by Friday, 3 0 August 2 019, at the latest.  
 
If information requested from interested parties in connection with the investigation is not provided 
within the specified time -frame, decisions will based on the best information available . This will also 
be the case if information is erroneous or incomplete.  
7.  Public hearings  
The ANMCC may organize public hearings, either at the request of interested parties or ex officio , 
so as to enable interested parties to defend their interests.  
B. NOTIFICAT ION UNDER ARTICLE 12.4 OF THE AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS 
BEFORE TAKING A PROVISIONAL SAFEGUARD MEASURE REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 6  
1.  Specify the product subject to the proposed provisional safeguard measure  
Pasta in the form of spaghetti, macaroni or noodles or i n any other form, classified under Madagascar 
customs tariff codes 19021190, 19021990, 19022090 and 19023090.  
2. Specify the proposed provisional safeguard measure  
The provisional safeguard measure will take the form of an additional duty to the ad valorem  customs 
duty, charged at a rate of 30 % (thirty per cent ) of c.i.f. value.  
3. Specify the proposed date of introduction of the proposed provisional 
safeguard measure  
The provisional safeguard measure will enter into force on 1 August 2 019. 
4. Specify the expected duration of the provisional safeguard measure  
The provisional safeguard measure will be applied for 200 days from the date of its entry into force.  
5. Provide the ba sis for:  
5.1 Making a preliminary determination, as provided for in Article 6 of the Agreement on 
Safeguards, that increased imports have caused or are threatening to cause serious 
injury.  
I. INCREASE IN IMPORTS  
Year 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Imports  25,967,061  26,808,124  40,300,093  44,909,601  
Change  100 103 155 173 
 
Pasta imports increased 73 % in absolute terms over the last four years . In 2018, an increase of 
11.4% compared to 2017 was still recorded.  
II. UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS  
The ANMCC  has made a preliminary determination of a sudden, recent, significant and sharp increase 
in imports of the investigated product . This increase is due to unforeseen developments, including 
the 2016 monetary crisis in Egypt, which led Egypt's central bank t o devalue the Egyptian pound by 
48% after the collapse of its dollar reserves and to move to a floating exchange rate regime . This 
change in Egypt's monetary policy boosted its exports, including pasta exports, of which 55 % were 
exported to Madagascar in 2 018, compared with 29 % in 2015 . More than 70 % of the volume of 
pasta imported by Madagascar comes from that country.  
III. SERIOUS INJURY  
The ANMCC made a preliminary determination of serious injury to the domestic industry producing 
the like or directly competi tive product after evaluating, on an objective and quantifiable basis, all 
relevant factors having a bearing on the situation of the domestic industry.  G/SG/N/6/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/7/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/11/MDG/4  
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  i. Rate of increase in imports  
There was a sudden, recent and significant increase in pasta imports, which rose 50 % from 2016 to 
2017, compared with a mere 3 % from 2015 to 2016.  
 
ii. Downward trend in import prices  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
C.i.f. price per kg (MGA)  2,386  2,300  2,008  2,067  
 
There has been a downward trend in import prices since 2015 . They decreased from MGA 2,386 in 
2015 to MGA 2,067 in 2018 despite the depreciation of the domestic currency.  
 
iii. Share of domestic market taken by increased imports  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Imports (tonnes)  25,967,061  26,808,124  40,300,093  44,909,601  
Market share of imports (index)  100 101 103 104 
Domestic industry market share 
(index)  100 93 57 49 
 
The first two years, the market share of imports increased four index points and that of the industry 
fell sharply.  
 
iv. Production  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Production  (index)  100 96 85 80 
 
According to the table above, domestic production declined continuously and steadily from 2015 . 
A decrease of 20 index points was recorded over the investigation period.  
v. Sales  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Sales  (index)  100 96 85 81 
 
Domestic industry sales declined 19 index points from 2015 to 2018 . The largest decrease, 
amounting to 11 index points, occurred between 2016 and 2017.  
 
vi. Market share  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Market share  (index)  100 93 57 49 
 
The market share of the domestic pasta industry deteriorated significantly from 2015 . At the end of 
four years, the domestic industry had been able to hold on to only half its market share because of 
imports.  
vii. Productivity  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Productivity  (index)  100 89 73 58 
 
With the continuous decline in sales, there was also a continuous decline in domestic industry 
productivity . It was 11 index points lower in 2016 than in 2015 ; by 2018, it had fallen 42 points . G/SG/N/6/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/7/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/11/MDG/4  
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  viii. Production capacity utilization  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Production capacity  100 100 187 216 
Production capacity utilization (index)  100 96 45 37 
 
In the first two years analysed, the domestic industry's production capacity utilization rate decreased 
four points . Despite efforts made by the domestic industry since 2017 to revive production through 
the acquisition of a new production line, production capacity utilization decreased 63 index points.  
ix. Profitability  
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Profitability  (index)  100 3 43 28 
 
Domestic industry profitability declined significantly over the period studied, decreasing 72 % from 
2015 to 2018.  
x. Jobs 
 2015  2016  2017  2018  
Jobs (index)  100 108 104 100 
 
The domestic industry has tried to retain jobs . As a result, the industry's workforce remained almost 
unchanged during the period studied, with the size of the workforce in 2018 the same as it was in 
2015.  
IV. CAUSAL LINK  
A correlation between the continuous, sudden and significant increase in imports and the serious 
injury to the domestic industry was found on the basis of an objective analysis of the effects of the 
increased imports on the situation of the domestic indust ry, with an emphasis on their temporal 
impact.  
 
There was a substantial and uninterrupted increase in pasta imports from 2015 . A 73% increase was 
recorded over the investigation period . Relative to domestic production, there was a 116 % increase 
from 2015 t o 2018.  
 
The largest increase in imports was recorded in 2017, when the average c.i.f. import price was at 
its lowest . The most significant deteriorations in domestic production volume, sales volume and the 
market share of the domestic industry coincided w ith that substantial increase in imports.  
 
The effects of the other factors analysed were insufficient to conclude that the serious injury to the 
domestic industry was caused principally by those other factors for the following reasons . There was 
no contra ction in domestic demand, as an 85 % increase was recorded over the investigation period . 
Competition among domestic producers is almost non -existent given the low total volume of their 
production relative to domestic demand . It is only the competition with  imported pasta that harms 
them. With regard to the level of technology used, domestic producers just acquired pasta production 
lines barely two years ago . And since they do not export their products, export performance cannot 
be considered a factor in the  injury to the domestic industry.  
 
5.2 Determining that there are critical circumstances where delay would cause damage 
which it would be difficult to repair  
 
There is a threat that the operations of the domestic industry, which is suffering because of the  
pressure exerted by imports, will come to a halt . The current market conditions are not viable for 
domestic producers and the absence of provisional measures could aggravate the injury to them.  
6. Offer of consultations under Article 12.4  
In accordance with Article 12.4 of the Agreement on Safeguards, Madagascar is prepared to hold 
consultations on the provisional safeguard measure with those Members having a substantial interest 
as exporters of the products concerned.  G/SG/N/6/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/7/MDG/4 • G/SG/N/11/MDG/4  
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  7. Further information  
Requests for further  information and correspondence regarding the investigation must be sent to:  
 
Monsieur Le Directeur Général de l'ANMCC  
Enceinte Ex -Conquête Antanimena, Antananarivo 101 – Madagascar  
Email:dg.anmcc@gmail.com  
 
C. NOTIFICATION UNDER ARTICLE 9, FOOTNOTE 2, OF THE AGREEMENT ON 
SAFEGUARDS OF THE DECISION NOT TO APPLY THE SAFEGUARD  
Below is the list of developing countries to which the provisional measure will not apply, as their 
exports represent less than 3 % of Madagascar's total imports of pasta and collectively account for 
not more than 9 %: 
 
Afghanistan ; Albania ; Angola ; Antigua and Barbuda ; Argentina ; Armenia ; Bahrain ; Bangladesh ; 
Barbados ; Belize; Benin; Bolivia, Plurinational State of ; Botswana ; Brazil; Brunei Darussalam ; 
Burkina  Faso; Burundi ; Cabo Verde ; Cambodia ; Cameroon ; Central African Republic ; Chad; Chile; 
Colombia ; Congo; Costa Rica ; Côte d'Ivoire ; Cuba; Democratic Republic of the C ongo; Djibouti ; 
Dominica ; Dominican Republic ; Ecuador ; El Salvador ; Eswatini ; Fiji; Gabon; The Gambia ; Georgia ; 
Ghana; Grenada ; Guatemala ; Guinea ; Guinea -Bissau ; Guyana ; Haiti; Honduras ; India; Israel; 
Jamaica ; Jordan ; Kazakhstan ; Kenya; Kuwait ; Kyrgyz Republic ; Lao People's Democratic  Republic ; 
Lesotho ; Liberia ; Malawi; Malaysia ; Maldives ; Mali; Marshall  Islands ; Mauritania ; Mexico; Moldova ; 
Mongolia ; Montenegro ; Morocco ; Mozambique ; Myanmar ; Namibia ; Nepal; Nicaragua ; Niger; Oman; 
Pakistan ; Panam a; Papua New Guinea ; Paraguay ; Peru; Philippines ; Qatar; Rwanda ; Saint Kitts  and 
Nevis ; Saint Lucia ; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines ; Samoa ; Saudi Arabia ; Senegal ; Seychelles ; 
Sierra Leone ; Solomon Islands ; South Africa ; Sri Lanka ; Suriname ; Tajikistan ; Tanzania ; Thailand ; 
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia ; Togo; Tonga; Trinidad and Tobago ; Tunisia ; Uganda ; 
Ukraine ; United Arab Emirates ; Uruguay ; Vanuatu ; Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of ; Viet Nam; 
Yemen ; Zambia ; Zimbabwe.  
 
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