G/AG/GEN/168  
 
17 September 2020  
(20-6287) Page: 1/4 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
OECD ANALYSIS RELATED TO COVID -19 
SUBMISSION BY THE OECD  
The following submission, dated 17 September 2020, is being circulated at the request of 
the Organisation for Economic Co -operation and Development (OECD).  
 
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1  AGRICULTURAL POLICY MONITORING AND EVALUATION 2020  
1.1  About the report  
1.1.  This annual report monitors and evaluates agricultural policies spanning all six continents, 
including the 37 OECD countries, the five non -OECD EU member States, and 12 e merging 
economies. It is a unique source of up -to date estimates of support to agriculture using a 
comprehensive system of measuring and classifying support to agriculture – the Producer and 
Consumer Support Estimates (PSEs and CSEs), the General Services Support Estimate (GSSE) and 
related indicators – which provide insight into the increasingly complex nature of agricultural policy 
and serve as a basis for OECD's agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation. In 2017 -19, the 
54 countries covered in this r eport provided net transfers to their agricultural sectors of 
USD 619 billion (EUR  542 billion) per year. These net transfers included USD  708 billion 
(EUR 620 billion) per year of support directed to the agricultural sectors, offset by an implicit 
taxatio n of farmers in some countries worth more than USD  89 billion (EUR  78 billion) per year. Of 
total transfers, USD  425 billion (EUR  373 billion) constituted budgetary spending for various support 
programmes, the remainder being market price support.  
1.2.  Access t he report online: https://doi.org/10.1787/928181a8 -en. 
1.2  COVID -19 specific analysis in the report  
1.3.  This report reviews early policy responses to the COVID -19 pandemic, based on a dataset of 
496 measures take n by 54 countries between 1  January and 28  April and collected by the OECD 
from government officials and additional sources. Findings show a large diversity of measures, some 
of which were urgent and necessary, and may continue to be beneficial once the pa ndemic has 
subsided, while others are potentially problematic for the functioning of markets or for the 
environment. National allocation of measures shows differences between developed OECD countries, 
which used more agriculture or support related measures , and emerging economies, which focused 
on trade policies, information provision or food assistance. A minimum USD 47.6 billion was allocated 
by OECD governments to the agriculture and food sector, mostly in the form of domestic food 
assistance and support  to agriculture and the food chain.  
2  OECD -FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2020 -2029  
2.1  About the report  
2.1.  The Agricultural Outlook 2020 -2029 is a collaborative effort of the OECD and FAO, prepared 
with input from the experts of their member governments and from specialist commodity 
organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten -year prospects for  agricultural and fish G/AG/GEN/168  
 
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  commodity markets at national, regional and global levels. The baseline projections highlight 
fundamental economic and social trends driving the global food sector.  
2.2.  Access the report online: http://www.agri -outlook.org/ . 
2.2  COVID -19 specific analysis in the report  
2.3.  While the core baseline projections have not been modified to reflect the unexpected conditions 
created by the current COVID -19 pandemic, they provide a useful starting point for ev aluating 
potential impacts. The immediate implications of the pandemic for global agricultural markets were 
examined using an initial scenario simulation.  
2.4.  In April 2020, expert consensus of the impacts of COVID -19 anticipated a contraction in both 
supply a nd demand of agricultural products and pointed to possible disruptions in trade and logistics. 
These disruptions will affect all elements of the food system, from primary supply, to processing, to 
trade and national and international logistics systems, to intermediate and final demand. An initial 
COVID -19 scenario provides some preliminary insights into the short -term impacts of the current 
pandemic on agricultural markets. The scenario illustrates how the COVID -19 pandemic could create 
a historically signi ficant market shock. In this scenario, agricultural prices fall strongly in response 
to the COVID -19 induced decline in disposable income, especially in low -income countries. Due to 
this unprecedented loss in purchasing power, consumer food consumption dec reases despite the 
offsetting price declines. The initial scenario shows a contraction of demand for vegetable oil and 
animal products, whereas, the demand for staple food is less affected. While the scenario provides 
an indication of potential short -term impacts of the disruptions caused by the pandemic, the 
economic, social and political fallout of the pandemic continues to evolve in extremely complex 
patterns.  
3  KEY POLICY RESPONSES TO COVID -19 FROM THE OECD  
3.1  About the Policy Responses series  
3.1.  The OECD is co mpiling data, analysis and recommendations on a range of topics to address 
the emerging health, economic and societal crisis, facilitate co -ordination, and contribute to the 
necessary global action. This new series brings together information on policy res ponses spanning a 
large range of topics, from health to education and taxes, providing guidance on the short -term 
measures needed in affected sectors and a specific focus on the vulnerable sectors of society and 
the economy. Beyond immediate responses, the  content aims to provide analysis on the longer -term 
consequences and impacts, paving the way to recovery with co -ordinated policy responses across 
countries.  
3.2.  Access all policy responses: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/policy -responses . 
3.2  Agriculture -specific policy briefs  
3.2.1   COVID -19 and global food systems  
3.3.  Even before the outbreak of COVID -19, global food systems were faced with a formidable "triple 
challenge" of simultaneously providing f ood security and nutrition to a growing global population, 
ensuring the livelihoods of millions of people working along the food chain from farm to fork, and 
ensuring the environmental sustainability of the sector. Yet policy efforts have not been moving i n 
this direction, and global trade in agriculture and food remains highly distorted. COVID -19 is 
compelling policy makers to make urgent decisions to ensure food supply chains continue to function, 
but the fundamental task is to address these immediate dis ruptions while also investing in the long -
term goal of a resilient, sustainable and productive global food system. Ending inefficient and 
environmentally harmful support would free up resources for more forward -looking policy packages. 
The unanticipated sh ock of COVID -19 underscores the urgency of moving away from "business as 
usual".  
3.4.  Access this policy brief: https://read.oecd -ilibrary.org/ view/?ref=134_134299 -
gywwih2rh3 &title=COVID -19-and-Global -Food-Systems    G/AG/GEN/168  
 
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  3.2.2   Food Supply Chains  and COVID -19: Impacts and Policy Lessons  
3.5.  The COVID -19 pandemic  has placed unprecedented stresses on food supply chains, with 
bottlenecks in farm labour, processing , transport and logistics, as well as momentous shifts in 
demand. Most of these disruptions are a result of policies adopted to contain the spread of the virus. 
Food supply chains have demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face of these stresses. Groc ery 
store shelves have been replenished over time, as stockpiling behaviour has diminished and as 
supply chains have responded to increased demand. Long lines at borders shrank quickly in response 
to policies to alleviate unnecessary restrictions. While th e impacts of COVID -19 are still unfolding, 
experience so far shows the importance of an open and predictable international trade environment 
to ensure food can move to where it is needed. The biggest risk for food security is not with food 
availability but  with consumers' access to food: safety nets are essential to avoid an increase in 
hunger and food insecurity.  
3.6.  Access this policy brief: https://read.oecd -ilibrary.org/view/?ref=134_134305 -
ybqvdf0kg9&title=Food -Supply -Chains -and-COVID -19-Impacts -and-policy -lessons  
3.2.3   Policy responses to COVID -19 in the seed sector  
3.7.  The COVID -19 pandemic and the restrictions put in place by governments to protect their 
people have the potential to restrict the production, certification and international trade of seed, 
with serious consequences for farmers and the global food chain. Although most spring and autumn 
seed had already arr ived in its final country of destination before travel restrictions were put in place, 
it is uncertain whether seed required for the next growing season(s) will arrive on time. The 
classification of the agriculture sector as "essential" in all countries is  important in order for the 
continued production and movement of seed, and avoiding changes to regulatory frameworks is 
critical at a time when relevant authorities are short staffed and under pressure  
3.8.  Access this policy brief: https://read.oecd -ilibrary.org/view/?ref=132_132622 -
ahipnwhwhw&title=Policy -responses -to-COVID -19-in-the-seed-sector   
3.2.4   COVID -19 and the food and agriculture sector: issues and policy responses  
3.9.  The COVID -19 pandemic is a global health crisis that is already having devastating impacts on 
the world economy – both directly and through necessary measures to contain the spread of the 
disease. These impacts are also being felt by the food and agriculture sector. How damaging these 
impacts turn out to be for  food security, nutrition and the livelihoods of farmers, fishers and others 
working along the food supply chain will depend in large part on policy responses over the short, 
medium and long term. In the short term, governments must manage multiple demands  – 
responding to the health crisis, managing the consequences of the shock to the economy, and 
ensuring the smooth functioning of the food system. While the pandemic poses some serious 
challenges for the food system in the short term, it is also an opportu nity to accelerate 
transformations in the food and agriculture sector to build its resilience in the face of a range of 
challenges, including climate change.  
3.10.  Access this policy brief: https://read.oecd -ilibrary.org/view/?ref=130_130816 -
9uut45lj4q&title=Covid -19-and-the-food-and-agriculture -sector -Issues -and-policy -responses  
4  POLICY MONITORING FOR THE AG RICULTURAL MARKET INFORMATION 
SYSTEM  (AMIS) INITIATIVE  
4.1.  The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) is an inter -agency platform that aims to 
avoid or defuse food price crises by enhancing the transparency of food markets and ensuring 
effective policy responses. To achieve this, AMIS provides timely information on the global supplies 
of staple crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybeans) and facilitates policy coordination in international 
food markets.  
4.2.  One of OECD's main contributions to the AMIS initiativ e is policy monitoring and reporting. 
Each month, the AMIS Monthly Monitor is published, which contains a section with recent policy 
developments. Following the COVID -19 outbreak, this section also includes policies that were 
implemented to deal with the i mpacts of COVID -19.  G/AG/GEN/168  
 
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  4.3.  Access the AMIS Monthly Monitor: http://www.amis -outlook.org/amis -monitoring/monthly -
report/en/#.X2JAOWgzYuU . 
5  SHOCKS, RISKS AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: INSIGHTS FROM THE OECD METRO 
MODEL  
5.1.  The economic effects of the COVID -19 pandemic have contributed to renewed discussions on 
the benefits and  costs of global value chains (GVCs), and in particular on whether GVCs increase 
risks and vulnerabilities to shocks. To serve as a starting point for an informed conversation around 
these questions, this note presents the results of a set of economic mode l simulations, using the 
OECD's trade model, METRO.  
5.2.  The study shows that re -localisation of supply chains would not only increase costs for 
businesses and for consumers, but also, importantly, would fail to shelter economic actors from 
uncertainty. Thus, w hile the argument about GVCs is often posited as one of efficiency versus 
security, this study illustrates that greater localisation fails to achieve either. Both security of supply 
and stability for households can be better assured through interconnected economies more 
effectively than through localised regimes.  
5.3.  Access this policy brief: https://issuu.com/oecd.publishing/docs/metro -gvc-final. 
 
 
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