RESTRICTED  
  
WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
1 November 2021  
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Trade Policy Review Body   
 
  
TRADE POLICY REVIEW  
REPORT BY THE SECRETARIAT  
TAJIKISTAN  
Addendum  
This addendum to the report, prepared for the first Trade Policy Review of Tajikistan, has been drawn 
up by the WTO Secretariat on its own responsibility. The Secretariat has, as required by the 
Agreement establishing the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (Annex 3 of the Marrakesh Agreement 
Establishing the World Trade Organization), sought clarification from Tajikistan on its trade policies 
and practices.  
 
The Trad e Policy Review Body (TPRB) meeting for the first Trade Policy Review of Tajikistan, initially 
scheduled for 22 and 24  April 2020, had to be postponed due to the outbreak of the COVID -19 
pandemic. This addendum was prepared by the WTO Secretariat to update  Members on the impact 
of the pandemic on the economy, measures adopted by the Government, and recent economic 
developments. It should be read in conjunction with the Secretariat and Government reports 
(WT/TPR/S/399, WT/TPR/G/399) distributed to Members on  18 March  2020.  
 
Any technical questions arising from this report may be addressed to Mark Koulen 
(tel. 022 739 5224), Zheng Wang (tel.  022 739 5288), and Fatima Chaudhri (tel.  022 739 6384).  
 
Documents WT/TPR/G/399 and WT/TPR/G/399/Add.1 contain the polic y statement submitted by 
Tajikistan.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Note: This report is subject to restricted circulation and press embargo until the end of the first 
session of the meeting of the Trade Policy Review Body on Tajikistan. This report was drafted in 
English.  
  WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
 
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  1. Tajikistan acceded to the WTO on 2  March  2013. Its first Trade Policy Review was scheduled 
for 22 and 24  April 2020. However, the outbreak of the COVID -19 pandemic coincided with the final 
phase of preparations for the TPRB meeting, resulting in its postponement. Documents that were 
intended to serve as the basis for that meeting, i.e. the Secretariat and Government reports 
(WT/TPR/S/399, WT/TPR/G/399), h ad already been distributed to Members on 18  March  2020. 
These reports cover the period from 2013 to 2018 -19. 
2. The Tajik authorities agreed to reschedule the TPRB meeting on 6 and 8  December  2021. 
Given the rather long gap between the coverage of the two ci rculated reports and the new meeting 
dates, the Secretariat and the Government of Tajikistan decided to issue a supplement to their 
respective reports. The supplements attempt to focus on the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic on 
the economy (including trade) , measures adopted by the Government to fight the pandemic, and 
recent economic and trade developments.  
3. In the first half of 2020, Tajikistan, a low -income economy1, suffered significantly from the 
COVID -19 pandemic. Real GDP grew at a much slower pace th an during the period before the 
pandemic, remittances fell, unemployment rose, inflation went up, and imports declined. The 
Government adopted its Action Plan in March 2020 to prevent and reduce the potential impact of 
the COVID -19 pandemic on the economy,  under which tax and credit relief has been offered to 
support vulnerable groups and domestic entrepreneurs. An expansionary fiscal policy, an 
accommodative monetary policy, and the easing of lockdown measures have all pushed the economy 
back to its previo usly faster growth path from the second half of 2020. In addition, the Government 
has in general maintained its relatively open trade policy and introduced a number of measures to 
facilitate trade.  
4. According to the IMF, the COVID -19 pandemic's health impac t has been well contained in 
Tajikistan.2 The outlook, however, depends on the evolution of the pandemic, measures to contain 
its impact, and the recovery of economic development in neighbouring countries.  
1  ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWED DUE TO COVID -19 PANDEMIC  
1.1.  The COVID -19 pandemic slowed Tajikistan's economic growth. The real GDP growth rate fell 
from 7.4% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2020, and per capita GDP contracted from USD  900 to USD  851 
(Table  1.1). 
1.2.  The measures adopted to contain the pandemic involved restrictions  on labour mobility and 
travel, which reduced demand for certain types of services such as transport (particularly air 
transport) and tourism. The inability of previously returned migrants to travel abroad resulted in 
weaker consumer demand and an increase d unemployment rate. Remittances, which play an 
important role in the economy, fell by 13% in 2020, representing the equivalent of 29% of GDP3, 
down from 35.4% in the first half of 2019 (Section 1 of the Secretariat report). Lower demand also 
reduced imports.  
Table 1.1 Main economic indicators, 2018 -20 
 
2018a 2019a 2020a 
GDP (current TJS million)  68,844  79,110  82,543  
GDP (current USD million)  7,523  8,301  7,996  
Real GDP growth (%)  7.3 7.4 4.5 
GDP per capita (current USD)  835 900 851 
Goods and services trade balance (USD million)  -2,076  -2,174  -1,744  
Exports  1,073  1,174  1,406  
Imports  3,149  3,349  3,150  
Prices     
 
1 United Nations, World Economic Situation and Prospects, Statistical Annex:  Country Classifications . 
Viewed at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp -content/uploads/sites/45/WESP2020_Annex.pdf . 
2 IMF, IMF Staff Completes Virtual Visit to Tajikistan , 14 September 2020. Viewed at: 
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/09/14/pr20292 -tajikistan -imf-staff-completes -virtual-visit. 
3 Asian Development Bank (2021), Asian Development Outlook 2021 , April. Viewed at: 
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/692111/ado2021.pdf . WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
 
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2018a 2019a 2020a 
Inflation (%)  5.4 8.0 9.4 
Money supply (TJS million)     
Currency in circulation (M0)  11,209  13,270  15,582  
Narrow money (M1)  12,560  14,536  17,043  
Broad money (M2)  14,224  16,449  19,243  
Interest rates (%)     
Representative rates on loans (year average)  27.19  21.07  20.08  
Representative rates on loans (end of period)  20.51  20.48  18.93  
Representative rates on deposits (year average)  7.50 7.30 8.16 
Representative rates on deposits (end of period)  6.38 6.84 6.36 
Employment     
Economically active population ('000)  2,478  2,465  .. 
Unemployment ('000)  47.5 49.0 49.9 
Unemployment rate (% of economically active population)  1.9 2.1 .. 
Employment by sector (%)     
 Total public sector  28.6 .. .. 
  Governmentb 20.0 .. .. 
  Public sector  8.6 .. .. 
 Private sector  71.3 .. .. 
 Unallocated  0.2 .. .. 
Memorandum items     
Nominal exchange rate (TJS per USD, period average)  9.2 9.5 10.3 
Real effective exchange rate (Dec. 2009=100)  86.4 .. .. 
Population ('000)  9,127  9,314  9,538  
.. Not available.  
a Preliminary data.  
b Includes central and local governments, state enterprises, and state farms.  
Source:  National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan; Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic 
of Tajikistan; and data provided by the authorities.  
1.3.  Inflation rose from 8.0% in 2019 to 9.4% in 2020 (Table 1.1). Prices rose particularly sharply 
in pharmaceuticals, and cleaning and disinfection products. The exchange rate depreciation also 
created inflationary pressures.  
1.4.  According to World Bank data, the COVID -19 pandemic had a drastic negative im pact on the 
already low level of foreign direct investment (FDI). The volume of inward FDI fell by over 70% 
year-over-year to USD  59.8 million in the first half of 2020.4 Mining, manufacturing, and financial 
intermediaries saw the largest drop in FDI. Cut s to public investment and disruption to foreign 
investment led to a decline in construction activity.  
1.5.  Total merchandise exports increased in 2020 from its 2019 level, as surging prices for precious 
metals, in particular gold, pushed up exports. However, e xports of aluminium and cotton, which 
used to dominate Tajikistan's export basket (Section 1 of the Secretariat report), suffered from 
falling international prices. An insufficient water supply in the reservoirs suppressed electricity 
generation and export ation to neighbouring countries. Total imports declined because of reduced 
imports for public investment projects and muted consumer demand. The current account deficit 
narrowed to 1.8% of GDP in June 2020, compared to 7.6% of GDP a year earlier.5 
2  MEASURE S ADOPTED BY THE GOVERNMENT  
2.1.  To address the economic impact of the pandemic, the Government adopted a counter -cyclical 
fiscal policy and the Central Bank an accommodative monetary policy. An Action Plan on prevention 
and reduction of the potential impact of  COVID -19 on the economy was approved on 19  March  2020 
and remains in force. On 5  June 2020, the Executive Decree of the President on Prevention of the 
 
4 World Bank (2020), Tajikistan – Country Economic Update Fall 2020.  
5 World Bank (2020), Tajikistan – Country Economic Update Fall 2020.  WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
 
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  Impact of COVID -19 on the Socio -economic Sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan was issued, which 
offered  tax and credit relief totalling more than TJS  450 million to support vulnerable groups and 
domestic entrepreneurs. Several measures were also taken to facilitate trade.  
2.1  Fiscal Policy  
2.2.  On the fiscal side, revenues dropped due to the COVID -19 pandemic, posing challenges to the 
implementation of the revised budget for 2020, which aimed to incorporate higher allocations for 
health and social spending. In the first nine months of 2020, tax collections contracted by 3.7% 
year-over-year. Declinin g tax collections reflected a contraction of domestic demand and temporary 
fiscal relief granted to firms and households during the pandemic. Nearly all tax receipts saw a drop, 
led by profit and income taxes, value added tax, and social contributions.  In addition, Tajikistan 
faces the challenge of improving the efficiency of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and carrying out 
structural reforms to revive the private sector, without which the economy lacks a sufficiently broad 
tax base.  
2.3.  In the first nine months  of 2020, the Government increased spending in healthcare by 19.6% 
year-over-year, and social protection by 9% to build new medical capacities and to support 
livelihoods. From July 2020, the Government expanded the targeted social assistance programme 
to an additional 28 districts, covering the entire country. One -time COVID assistance of TJS  400 per 
person was provided to vulnerable groups of the population. The authorities indicate that in 2020, 
they channelled TJS  1.6 billion from the budget to procure m edicines and medical equipment, build 
temporary hospitals, and support healthcare workers.  In particular, the Government built an 
additional 157 secondary schools and supporting facilities for 63,000 students, and constructed 108 
healthcare facilities and more than 1.2 million square meters of housing.  
2.4.  While prioritizing budget expenditure on healthcare and social protection, spending cuts were 
made on, inter alia , maintenance and repair work, the purchase of new equipment, and the deferral 
of low -priority projects. In particular, budget expenditure on the energy sector was cut by 23.1% 
year-over-year in the first nine months of 2020, and that on the state administr ation was down by 
11.4%.  
2.5.  International financial institutions and partner countries also provided financial and in -kind aid 
to help Tajikistan address the unprecedented pressure on in its healthcare system.6 International 
emergency assistance in the form of grants and loans was agreed with the IMF (USD  189.5 million), 
the Asian Development Bank (ADB) (over USD  102.5 million), the European Fund for Sustainable 
Development (USD  50 million), and the World Bank (USD  11.3 million available, and another 
USD 16.2 million supplementing). Tajikistan's external public debt reached almost 40% of GDP by 
September 2020, up from 36.6% of GDP at the end of 2019.  
2.6.  Tajikistan is in the group of countries that recently applied to the G -20 Debt Service Suspension 
Initiative (D SSI), the objective of which is to support low -income countries by suspending official 
bilateral debt servicing through mid -2021. Under the DSSI, Tajikistan benefited from the suspension 
of debt repayments to China. The Government continues negotiations wi th other bilateral creditors 
regarding temporary debt service suspensions.  
2.2  Monetary Policy  
2.7.  In the first half of 2020, credit expansion slowed as the pandemic spread. Credit to the private 
sector slowed to 6.1% year -over-year by June 2020, from 13.4% year -over-year in March 2020. 
The Central Bank – the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) – has pursued an accommodative monetary 
policy to support the economy during the pandemic.  
2.8.  The NBT reduced the policy interest rate from 12.75% to 11.75% in May 2020 and furth er to 
10.75% in July 2020. In April 2020, it slashed reserve requirements from 9% to 5% on US dollar 
accounts, and from 3% to 1% on somoni (the national currency) accounts. It also asked lending 
institutions to restructure loans by extending grace periods and waiving penalties for corporate and 
 
6 World Bank (2020), Tajikistan – Country Economic Update Fall 2020.  WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
 
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  private borrowers facing financial difficulties. The NBT committed to providing emergency credit 
funds to the banking system in the case of force majeure  situations to ensure financial stability.  
2.9.  The authorities indi cate that credit institutions in Tajikistan provided credit relief of 
TJS 2.3 billion to more than 260,000 customers and TJS  4 billion in loans to industrial entrepreneurs 
in 2020, 2% more than in 2019. Commercial banks facilitated new lending by reducing the average 
interest rate from about 24% in early 2020 to 18% in July 2020. Commercial banks set their own 
interest rates, within a corridor set by the NBT. Interest rate spread is high in Tajikistan, reflecting 
mainly a lack of competition and persistent high risks in the economy. The average annual interest 
rate on loans was 20.08% in 2020, while that on deposits was 8.16%. In the same year, the 
end-of-period interest rates on loans and on deposits were 18.93% and 6.36%, respectively 
(Table  1.1).  
2.3  Trade P olicies7 
2.10.   In 2020, the Government adopted a number of measures to facilitate trade. First, on 
10 July 2020, Tajikistan made a notification to the WTO under Articles 1.4, 10.4.3, 10.6.2, and 
12.2.2 of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA).8 According to t he TFA database, Tajikistan's 
current rate of implementation commitments stands at  77.7%.9 On 1 September  2020, the full 
implementation of the "Single Window for registration of export -import and transit operations" was 
officially launched.  
2.11.   In December 20 20, the European  Union issued a certificate of use of the Registration Exporter 
System (the REX system) to Tajik authorities. The REX system is a system of certification of origin 
of goods based on self -certification, where economic operators declare thems elves by means of 
"statements of origin". To be entitled to make such a "statement of origin", the economic operator 
must register itself in a database set up by its competent authorities. Having this certificate issued 
by the European  Union, traders in Ta jikistan are thus qualified to join the REX system.  
2.12.   In response to the outbreak of the COVID -19 pandemic, on 25  April 2020 Tajikistan 
introduced a temporary  export ban  on a number of food staples, including vegetables, cereals, meat, 
flour, eggs, and wheat, with a view to ensuring adequate domestic supplies and curbing price 
increases. These measures were terminated at the end of August 2020.  
3  RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK  
3.1.  After a significa nt slowdown in 2020, economic growth accelerated in the first half of 2021, 
registering a growth rate of 8.7%.10 Compared with the same period a year before, agriculture grew 
by 8.1%, industry jumped by 23.4%, and services recovered from a contraction at 4 .8% in the first 
half of 2020 to a 16.5% gain a year later. Gross fixed investment grew by 23.7% as construction 
growth soared by 33.5%, reflecting investment linked to celebrations of the 30th anniversary of 
Tajikistan's independence in 2021. This also pu shed up merchandise imports. Inflation averaged 
9.0% in the first half of 2021, slightly lower than 9.4% in 2020. To mitigate inflation, the NBT raised 
the policy interest rate from 10.75% to 12.00% on 28  April 2021, and again to 13.00% on 
2 August  2021.  
3.2.  The merchandise trade deficit narrowed as merchandise exports nearly doubled while 
merchandise imports rose by 23%. Exports were up as borders reopened, and as global demand for 
gold has been strong. The export value of gold reached USD  689.7 million in 202 0; this went up to 
USD 708.9 million in the first half of 2021.  
 
7 This section does not intend to cover all trade  measures that Tajikistan may have put in place during 
the most recent period.  
8 WTO document G/TFA/N/TJK/2, 10  July 2020.  
9 WTO TFA Database, Tajikistan . Viewed at: https://tfadatabase.org/members /tajikistan . 
10 Asian Development Bank (2021), Asia Development Outlook 2021 – Update, September. Viewed at: 
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/726556/ado2021 -update.pdf . WT/TPR/S/399/Add.1  
 
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  3.3.  The economy is expected to gradually bounce back in 2021 -22, depending on the roll -out of 
the vaccination process, and the restoration of remittances, international trade, and foreign 
investme nt. The ADB projected that GDP growth will be 5% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022.11 
3.4.  With support from development partners, the Government is likely to maintain the 
expansionary fiscal policy, as it is expected to continue shoring up healthcare and social protect ion 
systems. Monetary policy may continue to try to contain inflation and limit currency depreciation by 
tightening liquidity; however, this may be constrained by demand for budget financing.  
3.5.  The possibility of new waves of infections will strain the socia l and health situation in the 
country. Any intensification of the pandemic and prolonged restrictive measures would undermine 
GDP growth prospects. As summarized in the Secretariat report, Tajikistan has strong growth 
potential as underpinned by its abunda nt hydro resources and young population. High dependency 
on commodity exports and remittances magnifies exposure to external risks, while domestic risks 
include limited fiscal space, obstacles in the financial system, infrastructure bottlenecks, and 
challe nges in attracting more private investment, diversifying and upgrading exports, and creating 
non-farm employment opportunities.  
 
__________  
 
11 Asian Development Bank (2021), Asian Development Outlook 2021 – Update , September. According 
to this report, 13.5% of the adult population was fully vaccinated against COVID -19 at the end of August 2021, 
and 35.3% had received their first shot.