G/AG/GEN/ 207 
 
8 November 2022  
(22-8348) Page: 1/4 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL  
103RD MEETING OF THE WTO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE  
ON 21 -22 NOVEMBER 2022  
Submission  by the International Grains Council (IGC)  
The following submission, dated 7 November  2022, is being circulated at the request of the 
International Grains Council (IGC).  
 
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OUTLOOK FOR TRADE  IN 2022/ 2023 
(All figures are taken from October 2022 Grain Market Report; m/m  (month -on-month)  changes, 
where applicable, refer to ch anges compared to September report; figures in brackets refer to prior 
season ) 
 
1  SUPPLY & DEMAND SUMMARY  
1.1.  The outlook for 2022/2023  (see table Annex 1) world total grains  (wheat and coarse grains) 
production is maintained at 2,256  million tonnes  but still the second largest on record. Global 
consumption is placed 3  million tonnes  lower m/m, including reductions for feed, food  and industrial 
uses. Unusual declines in both feed and industrial uptake, overall consumption is projected to recede 
by 1%, to a still much larger than average 2,271  million tonnes . Taking smaller than previously 
estimated opening inventories into account , the figure for world carryover stocks (aggregate of 
respective local marketing years) is 3  million tonnes  lower than previously, at 584  million tonnes . 
The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is cut slightly, to 408  million tonnes  owing to smaller import figures  
for maize (primarily in Asia), wheat (including for Egypt and China) and sorghum (China).  
1.2.  With reduced outlooks for the United States ( US) and India outweighing an uprated figure for 
Brazil, 2022/2023  global soyabean  output is pegged marginally lower m/m,  at 386  million tonnes , 
up by 9% y/y (year -on-year). Due to an increased opening stocks estimate, total supplies are placed 
marginally higher than before and, with consumption unchanged m/m  the Council's expectations for 
global reserves are uprated by 1  million tonnes , to 54  million (46 million). World import demand is 
projected at about 166  million tonnes  (+7%), 1  m higher m/m.  
1.3.  Chiefly stemming from a downgraded figure for Indian production, global rice output 
in 2022/2023  is trimmed by 3  million tonnes , to 505  million tonnes (-2% y/y). Also featuring smaller 
carry-ins, the net drop in supplies is channelled to reduced outlooks for consumption and stocks, the 
latter scaled back by a further 4  million tonnes , to 169  million tonnes , almost 9  million down y/y.  
Trade in  2023 is predicted near -unchanged from September, at 49  million tonnes  (-5%). 
1.4.  The Council's latest assessment of global pulses markets foresees a record chickpeas  outturn 
in 2022/2023  on an exceptional Indian crop. Consumption is predicted to grow , while stocks could 
accumulate significantly, led by gains in India. Trade is tentatively anticipated to expand to 
1.9 million tonnes  (+4% y/y) on firmer Asian demand, with Australian dispatches seen broadly 
steady y/y.  G/AG/GEN/ 207 
 
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  2  PROSPECTS FOR WORLD TRADE IN GRAINS , RICE AND OILSEEDS  
2.1.  World wheat  trade (Jul/Jun) is predicted to fall by 2% from the previous season's peak, to 
192.3  million tonnes , likely contained by better harvests in parts of the CIS, Near East Asia, as well 
as Brazil and Mexico. Smaller deliveries are also envisaged to Pacific Asia - the largest importing 
region. While some importers in the region have recently accelerated new crop purchases from 
Australia, aggregate arrivals may still fall short of the prior year's elevated level.  
2.2.  Among the main buyers, purchases by Egypt are forecast to contract to 11.4  million tonnes  
(11.8  million tonnes ), potentially a six -year low but still more than any other importer. Aside from 
a larger domestic outturn, this season's arrivals may be contained by a  reported increase in the 
extraction rate of wheat flour by local mills, for the production of subsidised bread. Additionally, 
some private importers have reportedly faced payment difficulties recently, amid a US dollar 
shortage. In contrast, deliveries to  Morocco are seen at the highest ever level of 6.1  million tonnes  
(4.8 million), following a poor domestic harvest.  
2.3.  World maize  trade (Jul/Jun) is anticipated to drop for a second consecutive year, to 
171.6  million tonnes  (-4%), potentially the smallest si nce 2018/19 amid restricted export flows from 
Ukraine and tighter US supplies. The outlook is cut by 0.7  million tonnes  m/m as reduced import 
forecasts for Japan, the Republic of Korea and Viet  Nam outweigh increases for Argentina and 
the US. The projectio n for EU imports is unchanged m/m, at 20.5  million tonnes  (+15%). Although 
official data showed cumulative arrivals significantly higher than one year earlier, the pace is 
expected to slow later in the season. In addition to reduced availabilities in Ukrai ne, there will also 
likely be a step up in competition for Brazilian maize towards the end of 2022, following the recent 
conclusion of a phytosanitary agreement for exports to China.  
2.4.  Because of tighter supplies and a slow pace of export sales, US MY (Sep/ Aug) shipments are 
forecast to contract by 13% y/y, to 54.6  million tonnes , down 3.2  million m/m. The MY (Oct/Sep) 
export outlook for Ukraine is unchanged m/m, at 17.0  million tonnes  (-28%), with much resting on 
the extension of the safe shipping corridor agreement past November. Reflecting a strong rate of 
exports and competitive pricing, forecast MY (Mar/Feb) dispatches from Brazil are increased by 
1.0 million tonnes  m/m, to 42.5  million, more than double the prior year's level.  
2.5.  Prospects for soyabean  trade in 2022/2023  (Oct/Sep) are tentatively upbeat, stemming from 
expectations for much improved harvests and availabilities in key exporters, primarily Brazil. At 
166.5  million tonnes , world import demand is predicted to expand by 7% y/y, still short of 
the 2019/ 2020 peak but above average. While the Council expects larger shipments to China to be 
a key feature, the expansion of import demand is likely to be broad -based, with gains in some 
regions, such as the EU, potentially reflecting the relative abundanc e of the oilseed compared to 
alternatives.  
2.6.  Continuing the trend of recent years, deliveries to South Asia, notably to Bangladesh and 
Pakistan, are expected to trend higher on rising food and feed sector needs, with a similar picture 
foreseen for North Afri ca, where an expansion of processing capacity has seen imports scale up 
significantly.  
2.7.  In the Americas, Argentine imports are expected to grow solidly given an assumed recovery in 
Paraguayan production, while a continued uptrend in Mexican imports to a new  peak is anticipated.  
2.8.  With aggregate northern hemisphere shipments likely to retreat, international buyers will be 
more reliant on South American exporters, notably Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Paraguay and 
Argentina. With an assumed sizeable increase i n production swelling availabilities, Brazilian suppliers 
will be well positioned to absorb the bulk of international demand in the February -July period. 
Consistent with the Council's outlook for a 7% expansion of trade, Brazilian shipments in  2023/ 2024 
(Feb/Jan) are projected at 91.0  million tonnes , a record and a gain of about one -fifth y/y. Equally, 
a crop of 10.0  million tonnes  could see a more than doubling of Paraguayan local MY dispatches, to 
6.2 million tonnes , underpinned by a ramping up of deliver ies to Argentina for processing.  G/AG/GEN/ 207 
 
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  2.9.  Global rice trade in 2023 (Jan/Dec) is tentatively seen retreating from the prior year's record  
to 48.9  million tonnes  (51.5  million). While Asian importers may buy less, including a scaling back 
of purchases (of 100% broke n) by China, deliveries to sub -Saharan Africa are seen rising to a peak 
of 19.4  million tonnes  (19.1  million) as population growth underpins.   
2.10.  Indian dispatches could retreat to 16.4  million tonnes  (19.6  million) as recently imposed trade 
restrictions compress export potential, most notably for 100% broken rice. In contrast, Thailand 
may sell more, while Viet  Nam's shipments are anticipated to remain elevated. U .S. deliveries in 
2023 are expected to remain below -average, at 2.6  million tonn es (2.6 million), amid tight 
exportable supplies of long - and medium -grain varieties. Despite a flood -damaged harvest, 
Pakistan's exports are expected to be little changed y/y as large carryovers underpin availabilities. 
Elsewhere, outlooks for shipments b y South American suppliers are tentative given that planting has 
only recently got underway. Nevertheless, demand from regional buyers is expected to remain 
robust amid reduced US  availabilities, with aggregate regional exports potentially reaching 
3.2 million tonnes  (3.5 million), including Brazilian shipments of 930,000  tonnes  (1.1 million). 
3  IGC ACTIVITIES  
3.1.  Webinars organised by the IGC are topical in nature and provide a unique opportunity for a 
diverse range of international experts to exchange views and  provide scenarios on grains, oilseeds, 
rice and pulses market developments. In line with the Grains Trade Convention, which seeks to 
further international cooperation, to promote the expansion of international trade and to contribute 
to market transparenc y in order to enhance world food security, webinars are open to the public. 
The IGC has organised several webinars more recently, including:  
• 29 September  2022: South American soyabean and maize production outlook 
in 2022/2023 , covering the countries of Bra zil, Argentina and Paraguay.  
• 25 October  2022: What quality we can expect from wheat harvests in 2022? This meeting 
was organised jointly with the Ministries of Agriculture of countries of the Mediterranean 
region (MedAmin) together with key exporters as a means of sharing respective data 
collection methodologies.  
• 31 October and 29  November  2022: how to reintegrate the Black Sea region within the 
global trade system, with contributions from the agri -food chain in Ukraine, international 
lenders and trade asso ciations.  
 G/AG/GEN/ 207 
 
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  ANNEX 1  
WORLD ESTIMATES FOR GRAINS, OILSEEDS AND RICE  
  19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  
      est. f'cast  
million ton nes       22 Sep 20 Oct 
TOTAL GRAINS a)          
Production  2,192 2,226 2,290 2,256 2,256 
Trade  397 426 424 409 408 
Consumption  2,199 2,239 2,293 2,274 2,271 
Carryover stocks  615 603 600 587 584 
 year/year change  -7 -13 -3   -15 
 Major exporters b) 153 132 141 143 142 
            
WHEAT          
Production  761 773 782 792 792 
Trade  185 190 197 193 192 
Consumption  745 770 782 785 784 
Carryover stocks  275 278 278 286 286 
 year/year change  16 3 0   8 
 Major exporters b) 61 59 63 70 70 
            
MAIZE (CORN)          
Production  1,132 1,136 1,218 1,168 1,167 
Trade  175 188 179 172 172 
Consumption  1,160 1,155 1,217 1,191 1,189 
Carryover stocks  298 279 280 262 258 
 year/year change  -28 -19 1   -22 
 Major exporters c) 63 43 50 56 51 
            
SOYABEANS          
Production  341 370 355 387 386 
Trade  169 159 156 165 166 
Consumption  355 369 364 378 378 
Carryover stocks  54 56 46 53 54 
 year/year change  -14 1 -9   8 
 Major exporters d) 26 17 12 13 13 
 
  19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  
    est. f'cast  proj.  
million tonnes (milled basis)        22 Sep 20 Oct 
RICE          
Production  500 509 516 508 505 
Trade  44 51 52 49 50 
Consumption  495 509 520 515 514 
Carryover stocks  181 182 178 173 169 
 year/year change  5 1 -4   -10 
 Major exporters e) 45 50 47 48 43 
Figures may not add due to rounding. All calculations are based on unrounded figures.  
a) Wheat and coarse grains . 
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU*, Kazakhstan, Russia n Federation , Ukraine, USA . 
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, USA . 
d) Argentina, Brazil, USA . 
e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, USA, V iet Nam.  
 
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