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PRESS/249
19 October 2001
(01-5141)
WORLD TRADE SLOWS  SHARPLY IN 2001
AMID THE UNCERTAIN  INTERNATIONAL SITUATION
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONTRIBUTED TO THE VIGOROUS
EXPANSION OF WORLD OUTPUT AND TRADE IN 2000
Growth in world merchandise trade is expected to slow in volume  terms to only 2% in 2001 –
compared with 12% in 2000. Even this growth is not assured given the present great uncertainties
about economic and trade developments, according to the report International Trade Statistics, 2001
published today (25 October 2001) by  the World Trade Organization .
Trade in Western Europe and the transition economies is expected to increase somewhat more
than 2%, while that of North America is likely to be below the global average. Japan is certain to
experience a contraction in exports, coupled with a moderate growth in imports.
These projections are based on preliminary figures for the first half of 2001 which suggest
that the deceleration of trade growth this year will be much sharper than previously expected (early in2001, trade was expected to grow by about 7% this year).  An important factor behind the sharper-
than-expected slowdown in world ec onomic growth is the steep fall in expenditure on information
technology products. Other factors include the une xpectedly strong slowdow n in demand growth in
Western Europe and the stagnation of merchandise imports into the United States.
Growth in the value  of North America's trade decelerated throughout the first six months of
2001, and in the second quarter both exports and imports were below their year-earlier levels. Western
Europe's merchandise exports and imports values are estimated to have increased by only 2.5% and
1.5%, respectively (measured in euros, the increases are 9.5% and 8.5%, respectively).  For the world
as a whole, the value of merchandise trade was up only 1% in the first half, compared with a 12.5%gain for 2000 as a whole.PRESS/249
Page 2
MOREStrong growth in trade in 2000
The report notes that 2001 contrasts sharply with the outstanding growth in global output and
trade in 2000, when the expansion of merchandise output and trade - by 4.5% and 12% respectively -
was the strongest in more than a decade. Economic growth accelerated in all major regions in 2000.
North America and developing Asia, which had each  recorded GDP growth above the global average
in 1999, recorded only  moderate accelerations.  In contrast, economic activity picked up strongly inSouth America and Russia, after stagnating the previous year.  Africa's output growth is estimated to
have strengthened in 2000, but to a level still below that of other developing nations, while Western
Europe's economic growth increased to 3.4%, its strongest expansion in the last decade.  Japan's
recovery meanwhile remained modest and fragile.
The developing countries made an above average contribution to the vigorous expansion of
world output and trade in 2000. The estimated 15% increase in the volume of merchandise exportsfrom developing countries was three times faster than their GDP growth, and their shares in world
trade and output continued to increase as it has done throughout the 1990s.  Moreover, only a small
part of this is the result of higher oil prices. It is due rather to their ability to expand their role in world
exports of manufactured goods, the most dynamic part of world trade. Developing countries
accounted for 27% of world exports of manufactures in 2000, a remarkable increase from their 17%share in 1990.
Among other developments in 2000 highlighted in the study are:
• The value of world merchandise exports was up 12.5% in 2000, triple the 1999 growth rate, to
$6.2 trillion. World exports of commercial servi ces rose 6% in 2000 reaching $1.4 trillion, with
transportation services showing the strongest growth.
• The product categories in merchandise trade with the highest growth were fuels (up 50% to $630
billion) and office and telecom equipment (up 20% to $940 billion).  Exports of agricultural
products recorded the weakest growth of all major product categories (up 2% to $560 billion).
• High growth in the information technology sector  was particularly beneficial for North America
and Asia, while the rise in world energy demand and the recovery of oil prices boosted theeconomies of the oil exporting countries.
• The value of North American merchandise exports rose by 12.5%, more than twice as fast as in
the preceeding year and faster than the 10% increase in exports of commercial services from the
region.
• Western Europe recorded its fastest trade and output growth – on a volume basis – in the past
decade, as merchandise exports and imports rose by about 10%, twice as fast as in the preceding
year.
• Latin America's sharp rise in output in 2000 was mainly due to the recovery in Brazil and strong
GDP growth in Mexico.  The latter's real trade growth was three to four times higher than that of
the rest of Latin America last year.
• Asia and the transition economies recorded both the highest export growth among the major
regions and the largest increase in imports, highlighting once again that dynamic exporters aredynamic importers. Despite the moderate acceleration of Asia's economic growth in 2000, its
trade volume surged by more than 15%, about  twice the average growth rate for the 1990s.PRESS/249
Page 3
MORE• The dollar value of Africa's merchandise exports rose by more than one-quarter last year, lifting
Africa's share to 2.3% of world merchandise exports.
• The 49 least-developed countries (LDCs) as a group shared in the dynamic global output and
trade expansion, as their GDP and trade growth exceeded the global average.  The US dollar value
of their merchandise exports rose by 28% although with highly divergent developments by
country.
• These differences in the export performance among the LDCs can be largely attributed to their
product structure.  Oil-exporting LDCs boosted thei r export values between 60 and 120% and the
seven LDCs exporting primarily manufactured goods recorded a rise of 23%.  However, exporters
of non-fuel primary products - the majority of LDCs - as well as countries with civil strife,
recorded a decline  in their export earnings last year.
• Trade developments of Regional Trade Agreements showed a great variation in 2000.  Intra-trade
of MERCOSUR and ASEAN expanded faster than total merchandise trade while for the EU andCEFTA intra-regional trade rose less rapidly than extra-regional trade.  Intra-trade of NAFTA
expanded faster than its exports to other regions.  However, NAFTA imports from other regions
rose as fast as its intra-trade.
• Intra-regional trade accounts for a smaller share of total trade in commercial services than for
merchandise trade in both the EU and NAFTA.  For the EU the share of intra-trade in commercialservices was 55% in 2000, roughly unchanged from the early 1990s.  For NAFTA, the share in
2000 was, at less than one quarter of total services trade, about half the rate recorded for
merchandise trade.PRESS/249
Page 4
MORETable 1.5
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2000
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Rank Exporters Value Share Annual
percentage
changeRank Importers Value Share Annual
percentage
change
1   United States 781.1 12.3 11 1   United States 1257.6 18.9 19
2   Germany 551.5 8.7 1 2   Germany 502.8 7.5 6
3   Japan 479.2 7.5 14 3   Japan 379.5 5.7 22
4   France 298.1 4.7 -1 4   United Kingdom 337.0 5.1 5
5   United Kingdom 284.1 4.5 6 5   France 305.4 4.6 4
6   Canada 276.6 4.3 16 6   Canada 244.8 3.7 11
7   China 249.3 3.9 28 7   Italy 236.5 3.5 7
8   Italy 237.8 3.7 1 8   China 225.1 3.4 36
9   Netherlands 212.5 3.3 6 9   Hong Kong, China 214.2 3.2 19
10   Hong Kong, China 202.4 3.2 16     retained imports  a 35.4 0.5 24
    domestic exports 23.7 0.4 6 10   Netherlands 198.0 3.0 4
    re-exports 178.8 2.8 18
11   Belgium 186.1 2.9 4 11   Mexico 182.6 2.7 2312   Korea, Rep. of 172.3 2.7 20 12   Belgium 173.0 2.6 5
13   Mexico 166.4 2.6 22 13   Korea, Rep. of 160.5 2.4 34
14   Taipei, Chinese 148.3 2.3 22 14   Spain 153.5 2.3 6
15   Singapore 137.9 2.2 20 15   Taipei, Chinese 140.0 2.1 26
    domestic exports 78.9 1.2 15 16   Singapore 134.5 2.0 21
    re-exports 59.1 0.9 28     retained imports 75.6 1.1 16
16   Spain 113.7 1.8 3 17   Switzerland 83.6 1.3 5
17   Russian Fed. 105.2 1.7 39 18   Malaysia 82.2 1.2 27
18   Malaysia 98.2 1.5 16 19   Sweden 72.8 1.1 619   Sweden 86.9 1.4 2 20   Australia 71.5 1.1 3
20   Saudi Arabia  b 84.1 1.3 66
21   Switzerland 81.5 1.3 2 21   Austria 68.6 1.0 -2
22   Ireland 79.9 1.3 12 22   Thailand 61.9 0.9 23
23   Thailand 69.1 1.1 18 23   Brazil 58.5 0.9 13
24   Austria 63.9 1.0 -1 24   Turkey 53.5 0.8 31
25   Australia 63.9 1.0 14 25   Ireland 50.9 0.8 8
26   Indonesia 62.1 1.0 28 26   India 50.5 0.8 12
27   Norway 60.0 0.9 32 27   Poland 48.9 0.7 7
28   Brazil 55.1 0.9 15 28   Russian Fed. 45.5 0.7 12
29   Denmark 49.6 0.8 0 29   Denmark 44.3 0.7 -130   Finland 45.6 0.7 9 30   Portugal 38.2 0.6 -4
31   India 42.3 0.7 16 31   Israel 38.1 0.6 15
32   United Arab Emirates  b 39.9 0.6 29 32   Norway 34.4 0.5 1
33   Philippines 39.8 0.6 9 33   Finland 33.9 0.5 7
34   Venezuela 31.8 0.5 58 34   Philippines 33.8 0.5 4
35   Poland 31.7 0.5 15 35   Indonesia 33.5 0.5 40
36   Israel 31.3 0.5 21 36   Czech Rep.  c 32.2 0.5 15
37   Iran, Islamic Rep. of  b 30.0 0.5 52 37   Hungary 32.1 0.5 15
38   South Africa 30.0 0.5 12 38   United Arab Emirates 31.9 0.5 4
39   Czech Rep. 29.0 0.5 11 39   Saudi Arabia  b 30.3 0.5 8
40   Hungary 28.1 0.4 12 40   South Africa 29.7 0.4 1141   Turkey 26.6 0.4 0 41   Greece  b 26.3 0.4 -1
42   Argentina 26.3 0.4 13 42   Argentina 25.1 0.4 -1
43   Portugal 23.3 0.4 -5 43   Chile 18.1 0.3 19
44   Nigeria  b 20.1 0.3 57 44   Venezuela  b 16.1 0.2 14
45   Algeria 19.6 0.3 56 45   Viet Nam 15.6 0.2 35
46   Kuwait 19.5 0.3 60 46   Iran, Islamic Rep. of  b 15.2 0.2 20
47   Iraq  b 19.3 0.3 61 47   Egypt 14.0 0.2 -13
48   Chile 18.2 0.3 16 48   Ukraine 14.0 0.2 18
49   Ukraine 14.6 0.2 26 49   New Zealand 13.9 0.2 -350   Viet Nam 14.5 0.2 25 50   Iraq  b 13.7 0.2 61
Total of above  d 6038.0 94.9 - Total of above  d 6178.0 92.6 -
World  d 6364.0 100.0 12 World  d 6669.0 100.0 13
a  Retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports. See the Technical Notes.
b  Secretariat estimates.
c  Imports are valued f.o.b.
d  Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Note:  For annual data 1990-00, see Appendix Tables A5 and A6.PRESS/249
Page 5
Table 1.7
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2000
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Rank Exporters Value Share Annual
percentage
changeRank Importers Value Share Annual
percentage
change
1 United States 274.6 19.1 10 1 United States 198.9 13.8 13
2 United Kingdom 99.9 7.0 -3 2 Germany 132.3 9.2 0
3 France 81.2 5.7 0 3 Japan 115.7 8.1 1
4 Germany 80.0 5.6 1 4 United Kingdom 82.1 5.7 -1
5 Japan 68.3 4.8 13 5 France 61.5 4.3 -26 Italy 56.7 4.0 -6 6 Italy 55.7 3.9 -37 Spain 53.0 3.7 0 7 Netherlands 51.1 3.6 2
8 Netherlands 52.3 3.6 -1 8 Canada 41.9 2.9 9
9 Hong Kong, China 42.1 2.9 13 9 Belgium-
Luxembourg38.3 2.7 6
10 Belgium-
Luxembourg42.0 2.9 4 10 China 35.9 2.5 16
11 Canada 37.2 2.6 9 11 Korea, Rep. of 33.4 2.3 25
12 China 30.1 2.1 15 12 Spain 30.8 2.1 213 Austria 30.0 2.1 -3 13 Austria 29.1 2.0 -1
14 Korea, Rep. of 29.2 2.0 13 14 Ireland 28.7 2.0 8
15 Singapore 26.6 1.9 13 15 Hong Kong, China 26.2 1.8 316 Switzerland 26.4 1.8 0 16 Taipei, Chinese 25.7 1.8 1017 Denmark 20.6 1.4 22 17 Sweden 23.4 1.6 4
18 Taipei, Chinese 20.2 1.4 18 18 Singapore 21.3 1.5 13
19 Sweden 20.0 1.4 2 19 India 19.9 1.4 1620 Turkey 19.2 1.3 19 20 United Arab
Emirates  a18.8 1.3 …
21 Australia 17.8 1.2 5 21 Denmark 18.3 1.3 21
22 India 17.6 1.2 26 22 Australia 17.7 1.2 -1
23 Ireland 16.6 1.2 8 23 Russian Fed. 17.4 1.2 3024 Norway 15.0 1.0 8 24 Mexico 16.8 1.2 1925 Israel 14.3 1.0 32 25 Malaysia 16.6 1.2 13
26 Malaysia 13.6 0.9 15 26 Brazil 15.9 1.1 19
27 Mexico 13.6 0.9 17 27 Switzerland 15.5 1.1 -128 Thailand 12.8 0.9 -12 28 Thailand 14.7 1.0 929 Greece  a 10.2 0.7 … 29 Norway 14.5 1.0 -1
30 Egypt 9.7 0.7 4 30 Indonesia  a 14.3 1.0 …
31 Russian Fed. 9.6 0.7 6 31 Israel 12.1 0.8 1632 Poland 9.5 0.7 13 32 Saudi Arabia 10.9 0.8 1633 Brazil 8.8 0.6 29 33 Argentina 8.6 0.6 3
34 Portugal 8.3 0.6 -3 34 Finland 8.2 0.6 5
35 Czech Rep. 7.1 0.5 5 35 Turkey 7.6 0.5 -1036 Hungary 6.2 0.4 11 36 Poland 7.4 0.5 737 Finland 6.0 0.4 -7 37 Egypt 7.2 0.5 20
38 South Africa 4.9 0.3 1 38 Portugal 6.4 0.4 -4
39 Indonesia  a 4.8 0.3 … 39 Philippines 6.1 0.4 -1940 Saudi Arabia 4.8 0.3 -11 40 Czech Rep. 5.8 0.4 0
Total of above 1320.0 92.0 - Total of above 1315.0 91.3 -
World 1435.0 100.0 6 World 1435.0 100.0 6
a  Secretariat estimate.
Note:   Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. Annual percentage
changes and rankings are affected by continuity breaks in the series for a large number of economies, and by limitations incross-country comparability. See the Technical Notes. For annual data 1999-00, see Appendix Tables A7 and A8.
END