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PRESS/316
10 October 2002
(02-5443)
TRADE STATISTICS
Supachai: Disappointing trade fi gures underscore importance of
accelerating trade talks
Following release of the WTO’s International Trade Statistics, Director-General Supachai
Panitchpakdi issued the following statement.
“The disappointing trade figures for 2001 and the first half of 2002 underscore the importance of
making progress in the Doha Development Agenda  negotiations. While the depressed levels for
imports and exports reflect macroeconomic factors, it is evident that policy measures must be
taken to bolster confidence and provide the underlying assurances necessary to foster higherlevels of growth. One such measure would be for political leaders to send a strong signal toconsumers, producers and markets that they intend  to move forward in the area of further trade
liberalization through the DDA. These negotiations have begun reasonably well, but the time hasarrived for concrete proposals which will advance the talks to the next stage. The deadline forthese talks is 1 January 2005 and there are many intermediate negotiating deadlines between now
and then. It is essential that these deadlines be met and that these talks stay on course. In an
uncertain and divided world, development of a common set of trade rules and principles for 21
st
century is vital.”
Highlights from the WTO International Trade Statistics Report
• Global economic activity strengthened in the first half of 2002 and world trade started to
recover from the first quarter onwards. Despite this turnaround at the beginning of the year,the dollar value of world merchandise exports remained at 4 percent below the precedingyear’s level. In the first six months of 2002 imports of the EU and the United States decreasedby 6 percent while those of Japa n and Latin America decreased at double digit rates. China and
the Russian Federation, however, sharply in creased their imports by 10 and 7 percent
respectively.
• Provided that the momentum of the recovery in OECD countries and in developing Asia is
maintained in the last two quarters of this year, the volume of world merchandise trade isprojected to expand by 1 percent in 2002. The in crease in the dollar prices (on a year to year
basis) in the second half of 2002 is expected to be broadly based, affecting all the major
product groups, manufactured goods, crude oil and non-fuel products.
• The year 2001 witnessed the first decline in the volume of world merchandise trade since 1982
and the first decrease in world merchandise output since 1991. Global GDP growth edged uponly by about 1 percent due to a more resilient services sector. Developments in 2001PRESS/316
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ENDrepresented a dramatic change in comparison to the previous year, when trade and output
recorded their best performa nce in more than a decade.
• The simultaneous decline in economic activity in the major developed markets, the bursting of
the investment bubble in the information and communication technology sector, the sharpcorrections experienced in all major stock market indices and the tragic events ofSeptember 11 all contributed to this outcome.
• All sectors of trade were affected by the global downturn. Manufactured exports slumped by
2.5 percent, while trade growth in agricultural and mining products was limited to 1.5 percent,markedly less than in the preceding year.
• North America recorded the strongest decrease among all regions in merchandise export and
import volume (by 5 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively) in 2001. Asia’s export decline was
second only to that of North America, and imports decreased by as much as the global
average. Imports of Western Europe shrank by 3 per cent, which was faster than the decline inexports of 1 percent.
• The transition economies recorded an outstanding trade growth performance in an adverse
global environment. A further strengthening of trade and investment links between the EU andCentral and Eastern Europe contributed largely to this outcome. Africa and the Middle East
expanded their imports, despite a fall in fuel prices in 2001.
• The dollar value of world merchandise trade decreased by 4.5 per cent, the steepest decline in
more than a decade. For commercial services, the marginal decline observed in 2001 was thefirst since 1983.
• The burst of the IT bubble was the principal fa ctor causing a steep fall in world exports of
office and telecom equipment (nearly 14 percent). Non-ferrous metals, fuels and iron and steelrecorded also above average declines.
• In 2001, the year in which China joined the WT O, that country’s trade performance remained
outstandingly strong for both merchandise and services trade. In the ranking of merchandiseexporters and importers, China became number four ahead of Canada (counting the EU as one
trader). China’s commercial services exports and imports rose by 9 percent, while global
services trade stagnated.
• The share of developing countries in world exports of merchandise decreased to 29 percent in
2001, but remained well above the level in 1995 which was close to 26 percent. The share ofdeveloping countries in world merchandise imports stagnated at 26 percent, and has yet torecover to its previous peak in 1997.
• A small number of developing countries weigh heavily in determining developing countries’
merchandise trade performance. Five out of 150 developing countries account for more than60 percent of developing countries’ manufactured goods exports. The country concentration ofdeveloping country exports — as measured by the top five exporters — has increased in the
1990s , largely due to strong trade growth in China and Mexico.
• Despite an adverse environment in which world trade has contracted, falling commodity prices,
and the slowdown of demand in major developed regions, the least developed county groupmanaged to expand both its exports and imports.  A strong export expansion in the volume of
both primary and manufactured goods more than offset the impact of weaker prices for manyprimary commodities. The group of 8 LDCs wh ich exports principally manufactured goods
expanded their exports in dollar terms by nearly 10 percent.
• The share of the combined intra-trade of the fo ur largest regional trade agreements in world
merchandise trade increased to 36 percent in 2001. This is due to the slight increase in theshare of intra-EU trade in EU total trade, while the share of intra-trade decreased for NAFTA,ASEAN and MERCOSUR.