EMBARGO: NOT FOR PUBLICATION
BEFORE 1300 HOURS GMT
THURSDAY 10APRIL 1997
PRESS/71
4April 1997
AFTER TWO OUTSTANDING YEARS, WORLD TRADE GROWTH
IN1996 RETURNED TOEARLIER LEVELS
Stronger trade growth expected thisyear
Thevolume ofworld merchandise trade increased by4percent in1996 -again similar to
thetrade growth recorded during 1990-93. The4percentincrease in1996 comes after twoyears of
unusually strong growth inworld trade volume. Thegrowth rateofworld merchandise production
wasmarginally slower forthesecond consecutive year, butremained well above therates recorded
inthefirstfour years ofthedecade. Amodest increase intrade growth isexpected thisyear, based
largely ontheprojected recovery ofeconomic growth andtrade inWestern Europe andAsia, and
continued high growth inLatin America. These areamong thefindings intheWTO Secretariat 'sfirst
report ontrade developments lastyear andtheoutlook forthecurrent year(reproduced below). Other
highlights include,
• Slowdown inAsian trade growth: Since 1990, world trade hasgrown much faster thanworld
output. This gapnarrowed in1996, largely duetotrade developments inAsia, astheregion 's
export andimport volume growth fellbelow output growth.
• Other regions fare better: Growth intrade volume remained atleast twice aslarge asGDP
growth inNorth America, Latin America andWestern Europe, while inthetransition economies
asagroup, trade growth wasabove theworld average despite afurther contraction ofoutput.
• Goods export value tops $5trillion: Invalue terms, world merchandise exports passed the
$5,000billionmarkforthefirsttime,increasing4percentto$5,100billion.Theslowervolume
growth contributed tothesharp deceleration invalue terms to4percentfrom thenearly 20per
cent increase in1995, butthemain explanation isthe"valuation effect" ofthedollar 's
appreciation lastyear vis-à-visthecurrencies ofother major traders.
• Servicesexportsslowbutalsoreachnewhigh:Similardevelopmentsarebehindtheslowdown
intheexpansion ofthevalue ofworld exports ofcommercial services, from 14percent in
1995 toabout 5percent in1996. Theestimated total value reached $1,200 billion.
97-1121 MORE PRESS/71
Page 2/3
• Office/telecom andmetals among slowest sectors: Thedeceleration inthegrowth ofexport
value wasparticularly pronounced foroffice andtelecom equipment, ironandsteel, andnon-
ferrous metals.
• Oilprices liftfuelexport values: Boosted byamarked increase inoilprices, thevalue of
exports offuels rosebymore than 10percentin1996, thebiggest annual gain intrade since
29percent in1990.
• Regional differences: Latin America andtheMiddle East recorded merchandise export and
import growth of10percentormore invalue terms. Among theseven geographic regions,
thesharpest import growth wasinthetransition economies, with imports up12½percent.
• Africa beats world average: Forthefirsttime since 1990, thevalue ofAfrica 'sexports and
imports expanded more rapidly than total world trade, largely onthebasis ofincreased fuel
exports.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 4/5
I.OVERVIEW OFWORLD TRADE IN1996 AND THE OUTLOOK FOR 19971
Overview ofworld trade in1996
Thedeceleration inworld trade lastyear turned outtobemuch stronger than wasforecast at
thebeginning of1996 byalltheleading analysts.2World merchandise exports increased byanestimated
4percentinvolume terms, slightly lessthanhalftheraterecorded in1995. Asisevident from Chart 1,
however, thetrade growth recorded in1994 and1995 wasunusually strong, andthe1996 increase is
similar tothevolume growth reported forthefirstfouryears ofthedecade.3While thegrowth ofworld
merchandise output continued todecelerate marginally in1996 -despite astrengthening ofindustrial
output inthecourse oftheyear -the2½percentgainwaswellabove thegrowth recorded during 1990-
93.4
1This istheWTO Secretariat 'sfirstexamination oftheevolution ofworld trade in1996, based onstatistics available as
ofearly March. Amore detailed andextensive analysis oftrade developments in1996 willbepublished inNovember in
theWTO Annual Report .
2Forexample, theOECD 'sDecember 1995 forecast forworld trade growth in1996 was8.2percent; byDecember 1996,
theforecast for1996 hadbeen scaled back to6.1percent(seetheDecember 1995 andDecember 1996 OECD Economic
Outlook ).
3Itisnotpossible tomake credible estimates ofgrowth rates forthevolume ofworld trade incommercial services. An
estimate ofthegrowth inthevalue oftrade incommercial services isgiven below.
4Merchandiseoutputgrowthisestimatedonthebasisofglobalproductionindicesforagriculture,miningandmanufacturing-
thatis,itdoes notinclude services andconstruction (which areincluded inGDP). Incontrast tothemarginal slowdown
inmerchandise output growth, GDP growth isestimated tohave increased modestly to2½percent in1996.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 6
Asaresult, thelarge excess oftrade growth over output growth observed each yearsince 1990
wassharply reduced in1996. This change canbeattributed primarily todevelopments inAsia, where
trade growth (both exports andimports) fellbelow GDP growth. While thegapbetween trade and
GDP growth alsonarrowed inother regions, trade growth (exports andimports combined) remained
atleast twice aslarge asGDP growth inNorth America, Latin America andWestern Europe .For
thetransition countries asagroup, estimated GDP growth wasnegative -duetothefurther contraction
ofoutput inRussia andtheUkraine -while trade growth wasabove theworld average .
Theslowdown inthegrowth ofworld merchandise exports invalue terms from nearly 20per
cent in1995 to4percent in1996 (Table 1)exceeded byawide margin thedeceleration involume
terms, asdollar prices ofglobally traded goods stagnated in1996 after increasing by10percent in
1995. Changes intheexchange rateoftheUSdollar vis-à-visthecurrencies ofseveral major traders
(inparticular France, Germany, Japan andtheRepublic ofKorea), together with smaller increases in
exportpricesindomesticcurrencies,offsetpriceincreasesforcrudeoilandcertainotherprimaryproducts
(including wheat andmaize).5
Trade inproducts which hadbenefited from exceptionally strong demand and/or price trends
in1995 -office andtelecom equipment, ironandsteel, andnon-ferrous metals -wasaffected byprice
declines andweaker demand in1996.6Consequently, thegrowth inthevalue oftrade inthese products,
which ranged from 25to33percent in1995, waslessthan 5percentin1996. Incontrast, exports
offuels increased bymore than 10percentinvalue terms -thebiggest annual gain intrade since the
29percent recorded in1990 -duetothe19percent increase incrude oilprices in1996.
Table 1
World exports ofmerchandise andcommercial services, 1995-96
Value
(Billion dollars)Annual percentage
change
1995 1996 1995 1996
Merchandise 4920 5100 19.5 4
Commercial servicesa1170 1200 14 5
aGrowth rates areadjusted forbreaks inthecontinuity ofthestatistics duetomethodological changes.
Onapreliminary basis itisestimated that thevalue ofworld exports ofcommercial
services roseby5percentto$1,200 billion in1996.7Theslowdown incommercial services exports
5In1996, theUSdollar appreciated against theJapanese yenandtheECU by16and3percent, respectively, which
automatically reduces thedollar value oftrade flows measured inthose (andother) depreciating currencies. Thisisincontrast
tothedepreciation oftheUSdollar against theyenandECU by8and9percent, respectively, in1995.
6United States 'import prices forironandsteel, andnon-ferrous metals, declined by2and10percentrespectively in
1996, compared with increases of10and20percentin1995. Fordetails ontheproduct composition ofthemain product
groups, andonthecountry composition ofthevarious regional andcountry groupings, seethe"Technical Notes" inVolume II
ofthe1996 WTO Annual Report .
7Statistics forcommercial services trade aretaken from balance-of-payments statistics, while thestatistics formerchandise
trade aretaken from customs data. Because thetwosetsofdata arenotdirectly comparable, thecombined figure forthe
twocategories oftrade must betreated asarough estimate. Changes inmethods andrevisions onthecountry level have
lowered theglobal value ofcommercial services exports. Growth rates arebased onadjusted datainorder topreserve the
MOREPRESS/71
Page 7
andimports wasparticularly pronounced inWestern Europe andAsia. North America 'sexports and
imports expanded faster than theworld average in1996 andatroughly thesame rates asin1995.
AvailabledataforLatinAmericancountriessuggestarecoveryinservicesimports-largelyduetoMexico
-andanabove-average growth ofexports. Overall, thedeceleration ofthegrowth inthevalue ofworld
trade incommercial services in1996 canbeattributed both tothevaluation effect ofthedollar 's
appreciation vis-à-visanumber ofmajor currencies, andtothesluggish economic activity inWestern
Europe which alone accounts forone-half oftheworld 'strade incommercial services.
Preliminary information onthevalue ofcommercial services exports in1996 bythethree major
sectors indicates thattransportation recorded thelowest growth rate, travel anabout average growth
rate, while "other services" (including financial andinsurance services, royalties andlicense fees,
construction services, andother business services) continues tobethemost dynamic sector.8Forthe
three sectors, thiswasacontinuation oftrends evident since thebeginning ofthedecade.
Outlook for1997
Recentforecastsfor1997anticipateaneconomicrecoveryinWesternEurope,roughlyunchanged
growth inNorth America andaslight deceleration ofGDP growth inJapan.9FortheOECD areaas
awhole, GDP isprojected toexpand in1997 atthesame rateasitdidlastyear. InChina andthegroup
of"sixEast Asian traders", where GDP growth rates aretwotothree times faster than intheOECD
area, growth isprojected topick-up marginally.10Sharper improvements inoutput growth areforecast
forRussia -where growth isprojected tobepositive forthefirst time inseveral years -andLatin
America.
Ifthese GDP growth forecasts arerealized, thevolume ofworld trade thisyear should expand
somewhat faster thanthe4percentgainin1996, ledbyastronger trade performance inWestern Europe
andanexpansion ofimports intoLatin America anddeveloping Asia. Theincreased export earnings
oftheoilexporting countries should alsolead toincreased imports in1997.
II.WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE IN1996 BYREGION AND BYLEADING TRADER
Volume developments byregion
AlthoughallsevengeographicregionsusedintheSecretariat'sstatisticsexperiencedadeceleration
inthegrowth inthevolume oftheir merchandise exports in1996 ascompared with 1995, theextent
comparability oftheyear-to-year growth rates.
8Afactor inthenear stagnation inthevalue oftrade intransportation services wastheweakness ofmerchandise trade
andtheassociated depressed prices fortransportation services.
According totheWorld Tourism Organisation, world tourism receipts (acategory ofservices which overlaps largely
with "travel") roseby7.6percent to$423 billion in1996. FortheEU(15) asawhole, receipts were upby4.5percent
to$165 billion. This average conceals large differences among member countries. Portugal andItaly areestimated tohave
experienced anabsolute decrease inearnings, while Spain reported anincrease ofmore than 10percent. North America 's
receiptsareestimatedtohavegrownbynearly6percentto$73billion.Aboveaveragegrowthintourismreceiptsalsoappears
tohaveoccurredinthetransitioneconomies,AsiaandAfrica.SeeWorldTourismOrganisation,InternationalTourismOverview,
Highlights 1996 .
9TheGDP projections arebased primarily ontheOECD Economic Outlook ,December 1996.
10Thegroup ofsixEastAsian traders consists ofHong Kong, theRepublic ofKorea, Malaysia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei
andThailand.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 8
oftheslowdown differed widely. While exports from Western Europe, Asiaandthetransition economies
expanded lastyear atrates ofone-fourth toone-half therates recorded in1995, thedeceleration was
lesspronounced inNorth America andonly very moderate inLatin America (Table 2).11
Theoutstanding export performance ofLatin America (nearly triple theworld average) can
beattributed largely toMexico, where export volume expand forthesecond year inarowbymore
than 20percent. Excluding Mexico, Latin America 'sexports expanded by5percent inboth 1995
and1996. Incontrast toMexico, Brazil 'sexport volume hasbeen stagnant inthelasttwoyears.
Latin America 'simports, which grew involume terms byonly 3percentin1995 duetothe
sharp recessions inMexico andArgentina, recovered strongly in1996 with anexpansion of10½per
cent. Among themajor traders, Argentina 'sandMexico 'simports were up17percentand24percent
respectively, with theresult thatthesteep fallinimports provoked bytherecession in1995 hasbeen
completely offset. Aparticularly strong deceleration could beobserved forBrazil where thevolume
ofimports, after expanding bymore than one-quarter annually between 1993 and1995, increased by
about 6percent in1996.
Exports ofthetransition economies ,which recorded thestrongest export growth ofallthemajor
regions in1995 (up14½percent), decelerated sharply in1996 tojustunder theglobal average of4per
cent. Import growth, incontrast, reached 12percentin1996, thehighest level among themajor regions.
Table 2
Growth inthevolume ofworld merchandise trade byselected region, 1990-96
(Annual percentage change)
Exports Imports
Average
1990-96 1995 1996Average
1990-96 1995 1996
5.5 8.5 4.0 World 6.0 8.5 4.5
7.0 9.5 5.5 North Americaa7.0 8.0 5.5
8.5 12.0 11.0 Latin America 11.0 3.0 10.5
5.0 7.5 4.0 Western Europe 4.0 6.5 3.0
5.0 8.0 4.0 European Union (15) 4.0 6.0 2.5
3.5 14.5 3.5 Transition economies 2.5 11.5 12.0
7.0 9.5 2.5 Asia 9.5 14.0 4.5
1.0 3.5 -0.5 Japan 6.0 12.5 2.5
10.0 14.5 3.5 SixEast Asian tradersb10.5 15.5 4.0
aCanada andtheUnited States.bHong Kong, theRepublic ofKorea, Malaysia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei andThailand.
11Throughout thisreport, North America consists ofCanada andtheUnited States.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 9
Although North America 'sexport andimport volume growth decelerated to5½percentin1996,
itremained above theglobal average. The trade deceleration forboth exports andimports was
pronounced forCanada butonly very moderate fortheUnited States. Oneofthemain factors inthe
strong deceleration ofCanada 'strade performance wastheslowdown inthebooming exports andimports
ofthemachinery andequipment sector (excluding automotive products).
Western Europe 'ssluggish demand ledtoanimport growth ofonly 3percent in1996, less
than halftheratein1995, andbelow theglobal average forthefifth consecutive year. AsWestern
Europe accounts forroughly 40percentofworld merchandise trade, theimpact onglobal trade was
marked. With roughly two-thirds ofWestern Europe 'simports accounted forbyintra-trade, theregion 's
overall export growth wasalsoaffected. While intra-EU exports nearly stagnated in1996, exports to
third countries rosebymore than5percent, aratesignificantly faster thanimports from third countries.
Asin1995, external demand helped tosustain output andemployment intheEUduring 1996.
Thesurprising feature among the1996 trade developments inthegeographic regions wasthe
performance ofAsia.Although theregion 'seconomic growth slowed somewhat, itstillexceeded 5per
cent ifJapan isexcluded (including Japan, thegrowth isstillclose to5percent asJapan recorded a
GDP growth of3½percent). Although output growth wasstillwellabove thatofthesixother regions,
Asia'sexport growth in1996 wasnotonly below output growth, butalsothesmallest export growth
among theregions. Asia'simports held-up somewhat better, matching theworld average andexceeding
export growth by2percentage points. Japan 'sexport growth wasnegative, andinChina, Hong Kong,
Chinese Taipei, Thailand andMalaysia export andimport growth rates were well below currently
estimated GDP growth. Theextent oftheslowdown inAsia'strade growth wasunexpected, considering
thatthedeceleration ineconomic growth intheregion wasmodest, andthatintra-regional trade accounts
formore thanhalfofAsia'stotal merchandise trade. Itshould benoted inthisregard thattrade between
China ononeside, andHong Kong, Chinese Taipei andMacao ontheother, contracted sharply in1996.
Afullexplanation ofthese trade developments inAsia willbepossible only asmore detailed
data for1996 become available. Itdoes appear likely thatpart ofthestory istheabove-average
importance ofoffice andtelecom equipment inAsia'sexports, which implies thattheboom andbust
cycle ofthisproduct group hadastronger impact inAsia than elsewhere. Inaddition, exchange rate
developments, inparticular thestronger dollar, reduced thecompetitiveness inJapan andWestern Europe
ofthose countries which pegtheir currency totheUnited States dollar.
Table 2alsoprovides figures onthegrowth inthevolume oftrade thusfarinthe1990s. Three
features stand out. First, themost dynamic trade growth -onboth theexport andimport side-was
inthegroup ofsixEast Asian traders andinLatin America. Second, despite their above-average
performance inthepasttwoyears, thetransition economies reported thesmallest export andimport
growth since 1990 ofalltheregions shown inTable 2.Third, byfarthebiggest difference between
export growth andimport growth over thisperiod occurred inJapan, where involume terms imports
expanded sixtimes faster than exports.
Value developments byregion
Injudging thesignificance offigures forthegrowth inthevalue oftrade in1996, itisimportant
tokeep inmind thatthevaluation effect ofthedollar 'sappreciation varied considerably among regions
andcountries. Statistics forNorth America andLatin America were hardly affected, while those for
Japan andWestern Europe were strongly affected. Theimpact elsewhere depended ontheextent to
MOREPRESS/71
Page 10
which currencies arepegged tooneortheother ofthemajor currencies, andtheextent towhich trade
isinvoiced inUSdollars, yenorWest European currencies.12
Value figures formerchandise trade bygeographic region reveal thatallseven regions recorded
slower nominal growth in1996 than in1995 (Table 3).Theslowdown involume growth clearly was
afactor. However, acomparison ofTables 2and3alsoreveals thatthere wasmuch greater variation
among thetrade performances oftheseven regions in1996 onavalue basis than onavolume basis.
This istrueboth forthegrowth rates in1996, andfortheextent ofthedeceleration ingrowth rates
between 1995 and1996.
Table 3
Growth inthevalue ofworld merchandise trade byregion, 1990-96
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (c.i.f.)
Value Annual percentage change Value Annual percentage change
1996 1990-96 1995 1996 1996 1990-96 1995 1996
5100 7.0 19.5 4.0 World 5240 7.0 19.0 4.0
826 8.0 14.5 6.5 North America 995 7.5 11.0 5.5
250 9.5 21.5 11.5 Latin America 272 13.5 11.5 11.0
96 15.0 31.0 20.5 Mexico 90 14.5 -10.0 23.5
154 6.5 17.0 6.5 Other Latin America 182 13.5 24.5 5.5
2271 5.5 22.5 3.0 Western Europe 2210 4.5 21.0 1.5
2103 5.5 23.0 3.0 European Union (15) 2031 4.5 20.5 1.0
171 7.0 29.0 6.0 Transition economies 172 5.5 25.0 12.5
81 6.5 26.5 2.0 Central/Eastern Europe 109 12.0 29.5 12.5
113 1.5 12.5 8.5 Africa 127 5.0 18.0 5.5
28 3.0 10.5 2.0 South Africa 30 8.5 30.5 -0.5
160 3.0 13.0 12.5 Middle East 146 6.5 13.0 10.0
1310 10.0 18.0 1.0 Asia 1315 11.0 23.0 4.5
413 6.0 11.5 -7.0 Japan 350 7.0 22.0 4.0
151 16.0 23.0 1.5 China 139 17.5 14.0 5.0
531 12.0 23.0 3.0 SixEastAsian tradersa580 13.0 26.0 3.0
aHong Kong, theRepublic ofKorea, Malaysia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Thailand.
12Ingeneral, changes involume figures areamore reliable guide totheproduction andemployment effects oftrade than
arevalue figures, especially inyears inwhich there arelarge movements intheexchange rates ofmajor currencies against
theUSdollar.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 11
Theexplanation forthismore varied performance involves primarily twofactors. One was
thevaluation effect ofthedollar 'sappreciation against anumber ofcurrencies, including theyenand
ECU. Asjustnoted, thisisanimportant factor, forexample, inexplaining thefigures forWestern
Europe andJapan relative tothefigures forNorth America andLatin America.13Theother factor was
the19percentincrease inpetroleum prices in1996.14This played animportant roleintherelatively
better trade figures fortheMiddle East andAfrica -thelatter 'sexport andimport growth in1996
exceeded theworld average forthefirsttime since 1990, asdidMiddle East exports -astheshare of
fuels inthese tworegions 'merchandise exports isabout 70and40percent, respectively. Asregards
thefigures fortheAsia region, thesharply weaker demand andprices foroffice andtelecom equipment
should alsobenoted.
Also evident from Table 3isthefactthatimport growth exceeded export growth byawide
margin intheAsia region (due mostly totheexcess ofimport growth over export growth inJapan and
China) andthetransition economies, andbyanarrow margin inLatin America.
Trade oftheleast-developed countries
Data reported bytheleast-developed countries ontheir trade performance in1996 areextremely
limited andstatistics from their major trading partner -theEuropean Union -arestillincomplete.
However,someindicatorsareavailable.Theexternalconditionsformanyoftheleast-developedcountries
were negatively affected byprice declines formany oftheir major traditional export items, inparticular
cotton, coffee andcopper. These sharp price declines were only partly offset byprice increases for
teaandjute. Angola andYemen -thetwooil-exporters inthegroup -benefited from theoilprice
increase, inparticular Angola which increased itsoiloutput.
DespitethegenerallyunfavourablecommoditypricedevelopmentsandthesluggishnessofWestern
Europe 'simports, thelimited number ofAfrican least-developed countries forwhich dataareavailable
increased their exports between 5and12percentindollar terms lastyear. TheUnited States andJapan,
which together purchase about one-third oftheleast-developed countries 'merchandise exports, increased
their imports from thisgroup ofcountries byabout 15percentinvalue terms in1996 (recall thatoverall,
thevalue oftotal world merchandise trade wasup4percent). Incontrast, thecombined exports of
theUnited States andJapan tothisgroup ofcountries (they supply about one-tenth ofthegroup 'simports)
decreased byabout 5percent. Overall, fortheleast developed countries asagroup, itisestimated
thatin1996 their merchandise export value expanded somewhat faster than world trade .Import growth,
however, appears tohave been lessdynamic than exports.
Trade ofmembers ofselected regional integration agreements15
TheEuropean Union (15)-byfarthelargest regional integration agreement with total exports
andimports accounting for40percentofworld merchandise trade -recorded anear stagnation ofits
intra-trade indollar terms in1996. With exports toandimports from third countries upby6½and
2½percentrespectively,theshareofintra-regionaltradeintotalmerchandisetrade(exportsplusimports)
13The7percentdecline inthedollar value ofJapan 'sexports in1996, coupled with the4percentincrease inthevalue
ofimports, caused Japan 'sannual trade surplus todecline forthesecond consecutive year andthecurrent account surplus
todecline forthethird consecutive year.
14Spot market prices asreported bytheIMF. Crude oilimport prices intheUnited States andGermany increased 18per
cent.
15Because ofalackofdata, itwasnotpossible toinclude adiscussion oftrade developments inthemembers ofASEAN.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 12
fellto63percent, (thepreceding peak level wasreached in1992 with65percent). Price developments,
sluggishinternaldemandandthevaluationeffectofthedepreciationofWestEuropeancurrenciesvis-à-vis
theUSdollar contributed tothemoderate decline intherelative importance ofintra-trade.
In1996 theNAFTA countries recorded anexpansion oftheir intra-regional exports ofslightly
more than10percentwhile exports tothird countries roseonly by5percent. Intra-regional exports -
which in1996 represented nearly 9percent ofworld merchandise exports -reached anestimated
$480 billion ornearly 48percentoftotal exports, which isclose totheprevious record level in1994
before theMexican peso crisis. Ontheimport sidetheshare ofintra-trade reached nearly 40percent-
arecord level notonly forNAFTA asawhole butforeach ofthethree members (NAFTA imports
from third countries increased 4percentlastyear). Intra-area imports now range from nearly 30per
cent fortheUnited States toabout 70percent forCanada andnearly 80percent forMexico.
Thetrade ofeach ofthefour MERCOSUR countries evolved quite differently again in1996.
Thestrength ofimport growth ofthetwomajor countries (invalue terms, 18percent forArgentina
andnearly 7percentforBrazil) assured adynamic expansion oftheintra-MERCOSUR trade, which
isestimatedtohavereachedabout$17billionor0.3percentofworldexports.Theshareofintra-regional
exports intotal MERCOSUR exports reached arecord level of22½percent, while ontheimport side
theshare recovered totheprevious peak ofnearly 20percent in1993.
Value developments byindividual trader
Appendix Table 1provides dataonthe1996 trade ofthe30leading merchandise exporters and
importers. Among thecountries reporting strong export growth were suchpetroleum exporters asMexico
(up20½percent), theRussian Federation (8½percent), Saudi Arabia (14percent), Indonesia (10per
cent) andNorway (17percent). Other countries whose 1996 export growth measured indollars was
well above theworld average were theUnited States (7percent), theUnited Kingdom (7percent),
Italy (7percent), Spain (11½percent), Sweden (6percent), Malaysia (6percent), Australia (14per
cent) andIreland (12½percent).
Thedollar figures clearly reflect notonly theslower volume growth lastyear, butalsothe
valuation effect ofthedollar 'sappreciation against theyenandECU and(ontheexport sideespecially)
thesharp increase inpetroleum prices. Japan andfour West European countries (Germany, Belgium-
Luxembourg, Switzerland andDenmark), plus Thailand, recorded declines inthedollar value of
merchandise exports lastyear. Five West European countries (Germany, France, theNetherlands,
Switzerland andDenmark) recorded declines inthedollar value ofimports, asdidChinese Taipei and
Thailand.
Increases inimports ofmore than double the4percentworld average were reported byseven
countries -ranging from Poland andMexico (upabout 25percent) toIndia (up8½percent), and
including Turkey, theRepublic ofKorea, Ireland andtheRussian Federation.
Forreferencepurposes,AppendixTable2liststhe30largestmerchandiseexportersandimporters
when intra-EU trade isexcluded from EUandworld total trade figures, andtheEUistreated asasingle
trading entity (incontrast, Appendix Table 1liststhe15EUmembers individually). Onthisbasis,
theEUistheleading exporter andtheUnited States theleading importer, with Japan inthird place
forboth exports andimports.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 13
Value developments thus farinthe1990s
Thefigures inTable 4,alsobased ondollar value data, indicate themost dynamic traders thus
farinthe1990s. Nine traders -Argentina, China, Indonesia, theRepublic ofKorea, Malaysia, Mexico,
thePhilippines, Singapore andThailand -appear onboth theexport andimport side. Ofthetotal of
21traders inthetable, only fiveareOECD members: Ireland, Spain andTurkey, plus Mexico and
theRepublic ofKorea (thetwonewest members).
Table 4-Thefastest growing traders in1990-96a
(Annual average growth ratesbased ondollar values)
Exporters Importers
Malaysia 18 Argentina 34
Philippines 17 Poland 22
China 16 Malaysia 18
Thailand 16 Philippines 18
Singapore 15 China 17
Mexico 15 Brazil 17
Ireland 13 Colombia 16
Kuwait 12 United Arab Emirates 15
Korea, Rep. of 12 Chile 15
Indonesia 12 Mexico 14
Argentina 12 Singapore 14
India 11 Korea, Rep. of 14
Spain 11 Thailand 13
Indonesia 12
Turkey 11
Israel 11
Chinese Taipei 11
aTraders onthelist(i)hadexports orimports inexcess of$10billion in1996, and(ii)agrowth rateof
exports orimports ofatleast one-and-a-half times theannual world average of7percentduring 1990-96.
III. WORLD TRADE INCOMMERCIAL SERVICES IN1996
Thevalue ofworld exports ofcommercial services isestimated tohavegrown by5percent
in1996 following the14percentincrease in1995. Thedeceleration ofcommercial services exports
wasparticularly pronounced inWestern Europe andAsia. Partly duetothevaluation effect ofexchange
ratedevelopments, these tworegions sawtrade growth ratesin1996reduced bytwo-thirds. Western
Europe, which accounted in1995forone-half ofworld commercial services exports, recorded below
average growth in1996. Exports ofcommercial services ofNorth America andLatin America are
MOREPRESS/71
Page 14
estimated tohavegrown atroughly thesame ratesasin1995 (6and8percentrespectively) which
in1996 were above theglobal average.
Asregards imports ofcommercial services, Western Europe 'ssluggish economies contributed
toasteep deceleration from the15percentgrowth in1995 toaratewellbelow theglobal average
of5percentin1996. While Asiarecorded alsoastrong deceleration ofitsimport growth, itnevertheless
remained above theworld average. InthecaseofJapan, however, thedeceleration wasevenstronger
thaninWestern Europe asawhole, namely from 15percentin1995 toabout 2percentin1996.
North America 'simports ofcommercial services expanded byabout 6percenttonearly $170 billion,
agrowth rateonlyslightly lessthanin1995. Latin America 'simport growth accelerated in1996 as
thestrength oftherecovery inMexico more thanoffset adeceleration inthegrowth ofservices imports
inBrazil, theregion 'slargest importer.
Appendix Table 3provides dataonthetrade ofthe30leading exporters andimporters of
commercial services in1995 (thelatest yearforwhich reasonably complete dataareavailable).
MOREPRESS/71
Page 15
Appendix Table 1
Leading exporters andimporters inworld merchandise trade, 1996
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Change in
value in
1996Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f)Share Change in
value in
1996
1 United States 624.8 11.9 6.8 1 United States 817.8 15.2 6.1
2 Germany 521.2 9.9 -0.3 2 Germany 456.3 8.5 -1.5
3 Japan 412.6 7.9 -6.9 3 Japan 349.6 6.5 4.1
4 France 290.3 5.5 1.3 4 United Kingdom 278.6 5.2 5.0
5 United Kingdom 259.1 4.9 7.0 5 France 275.3 5.1 -0.2
6 Italy 250.7 4.8 7.1 6 Italy 207.0 3.8 0.4
7 Canada 201.2 3.8 4.7 7 Hong Kong 202.0 3.7 3.0
8 Netherlands 197.1 3.8 0.9 -retained importsb48.5 0.9 -7.0
9 Hong Kong 180.9 3.4 4.0 8 Canada 175.0 3.2 3.9
-domestic exports 27.4 0.5 -8.4 9 Netherlands 174.1 3.2 -1.0
10 Belgium-Luxembourg 166.7 3.2 -1.8 10 Belgium-Luxembourg 154.6 2.9 -0.4
11 China 151.1 2.9 1.5 11 Korea, Rep. of 150.3 2.8 11.2
12 Korea, Rep. of 129.8 2.5 3.8 12 China 138.8 2.6 5.1
13 Singapore 125.1 2.4 5.8 13 Singapore 131.5 2.4 5.6
-domestic exports 73.6 1.4 5.7 -retained importsb
79.9 1.5 5.4
14 Chinese Taipei 116.0 2.2 3.9 14 Spain 121.9 2.3 6.1
15 Spain 102.1 1.9 11.4 15 Chinese Taipei 102.5 1.9 -1.1
16 Mexico 95.9 1.8 20.6 16 Mexico 90.3 1.7 23.6
17 Sweden 84.2 1.6 5.8 17 Malaysia 78.6 1.5 1.0
18 Switzerland 80.0 1.5 -2.0 18 Switzerland 78.5 1.5 -2.1
19 Malaysia 78.4 1.5 5.8 19 Thailand 68.3 1.3 -3.5
20 Russian Fed.a70.4 1.3 8.6 20 Austria 66.0 1.2 1.0
21 Australia 59.9 1.1 13.8 21 Sweden 65.8 1.2 2.0
22 Austria 58.0 1.1 1.0 22 Australia 65.5 1.2 6.9
23 Saudi Arabia 56.3 1.1 13.9 23 Brazil 57.5 1.1 6.9
24 Thailand 54.8 1.0 -2.9 24 Russian Fed.a44.4 0.8 9.9
25 Ireland 50.0 1.0 12.3 25 Denmark 43.2 0.8 -0.7
26 Indonesia 49.9 0.9 9.8 26 Indonesia 42.8 0.8 4.5
27 Norway 48.7 0.9 16.8 27 Turkey 42.0 0.8 17.6
28 Denmark 48.1 0.9 -1.4 28 Poland 38.3 0.7 26.0
29 Brazil 47.8 0.9 2.7 29 India 37.5 0.7 8.5
30 Finland 40.5 0.8 1.3 30 Ireland 36.1 0.7 10.0
Total ofabovec4651.0 88.5 3.3 Total ofabovec4590.0 85.2 3.7
Worldc5254.0 100.0 3.8 Worldc5390.0 100.0 4.1
aDataexclude tradewiththeBaltic States andtheCIS.Including tradewiththesestates would liftRussian exports andimports to$89.6 billion and$64.3 billion respectively.
bRetained imports aredefined asimports lessre-exports.
cIncludes significant re-exports orimports forre-export.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 16
Appendix Table 2
Leading exporters andimporters inworld merchandise trade (excluding European Union intra-trade), 1996
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Change in
value in
1996Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f.)Share Change in
value in
1996
1 European Union (15) 800.0 20.2 6.5 1 United States 817.8 20.0 6.1
2 United States 624.8 15.8 6.8 2 European Union (15) 725.0 17.8 1.7
3 Japan 412.6 10.4 -6.9 3 Japan 349.6 8.6 4.1
4 Canada 201.2 5.1 4.7 4 Hong Kong 202.0 4.9 3.0
5 Hong Kong 180.9 4.6 4.0 -retained importsb48.5 1.2 -7.0
-domestic exports 27.4 0.7 -8.4 5 Canada 175.0 4.3 3.9
6 China 151.1 3.8 1.5 6 Korea, Rep. of 150.3 3.7 11.2
7 Korea, Rep. of 129.8 3.3 3.8 7 China 138.8 3.4 5.1
8 Singapore 125.1 3.2 5.8 8 Singapore 131.5 3.2 5.6
-domestic exports 73.6 1.9 5.7 -retained importsb79.9 2.0 5.4
9 Chinese Taipei 116.0 2.9 3.9 9 Chinese Taipei 102.5 2.5 -2.2
10 Mexico 95.9 2.4 20.6 10 Mexico 90.3 2.2 23.6
11 Switzerland 80.0 2.0 -2.0 11 Malaysia 78.6 1.9 1.0
12 Malaysia 78.4 2.0 5.8 12 Switzerland 78.5 1.9 -2.1
13 Russian Fed.a70.4 1.8 8.6 13 Thailand 68.3 1.7 -3.5
14 Australia 59.9 1.5 13.8 14 Australia 65.5 1.6 6.9
15 Saudi Arabia 56.3 1.4 13.9 15 Brazil 57.5 1.4 6.9
16 Thailand 54.8 1.4 -2.9 16 Russian Fed.a44.4 1.1 9.9
17 Indonesia 49.9 1.3 9.8 17 Indonesia 42.8 1.0 4.5
18 Norway 48.7 1.2 16.8 18 Turkey 42.0 1.0 17.6
19 Brazil 47.8 1.2 2.7 19 Poland 38.3 0.9 26.0
20 India 33.3 0.8 8.3 20 India 37.5 0.9 8.5
21 South Africa 28.5 0.7 1.8 21 Philippines 34.5 0.8 21.8
22 United Arab Emirates 25.4 0.6 14.1 22 Norway 33.9 0.8 3.5
23 Poland 24.7 0.6 8.0 23 Israel 31.1 0.8 5.3
24 Argentina 23.8 0.6 13.7 24 South Africa 30.4 0.7 -0.7
25 Venezuela 22.2 0.6 20.5 25 Saudi Arabia 29.8 0.7 8.5
26 Turkey 22.0 0.6 1.9 26 Czech Rep.c27.8 0.7 10.1
27 Czech Rep. 21.9 0.6 1.2 27 United Arab Emirates 26.5 0.6 12.5
28 Philippines 20.7 0.5 18.2 28 Argentina 23.8 0.6 18.0
29 Israel 20.2 0.5 6.2 29 Chile 17.5 0.4 9.7
30 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 18.3 0.5 15.1 30 Hungary 16.3 0.4 4.1
Total ofaboved3645.0 92.2 4.7 Total ofaboved3706.0 90.8 5.1
Worldd3950.0 100.0 4.8 Worldd4084.0 100.0 5.3
aData exclude trade with theBaltic States andtheCIS. Including trade with these states would liftRussian exports andimports to$89.6 billion and$64.3 billion respectively.
bRetained imports aredefined asimports lessre-exports.
cImports arevalued f.o.b.
dIncludes significant re-exports orimports forre-export.
MOREPRESS/71
Page 17
Appendix Table 3
Leading exporters andimporters ofworld trade incommercial services, 1995
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value Share Change
1 United States 189.5 16.2 8 1 Germany 130.3 10.7 20
2 France 96.0 8.2 8 2 United States 128.3 10.5 7
3 Germany 79.5 6.8 25 3 Japan 121.6 10.0 15
4 United Kingdom 69.4 5.9 13 4 France 76.9 6.3 11
5 Italy 64.7 5.5 17 5 Italy 62.9 5.2 17
6 Japan 63.9 5.4 13 6 United Kingdom 57.8 4.7 10
7 Netherlands 47.2 4.0 12 7 Netherlands 45.3 3.7 11
8 Spain 39.6 3.4 17 8 Belgium-Luxembourga33.7 2.8 ...
9 Hong Kong 36.1 3.1 16 9 Canada 29.3 2.4 4
10 Belgium-Luxembourga35.3 3.0 ... 10 Korea, Rep. of 27.5 2.3 36
11 Austriab31.5 2.7 ... 11 China 24.6 2.0 57
12 Singapore 29.3 2.5 26 12 Chinese Taipei 23.8 2.0 13
13 Switzerland 26.1 2.2 14 13 Austriab23.1 1.9 ...
14 Korea, Rep. of 25.1 2.1 33 14 Spain 21.6 1.8 17
15 Canada 21.2 1.8 10 15 Hong Kong 21.2 1.7 17
16 China 18.4 1.6 14 16 Russian Fed. 20.2 1.7 31
17 Chinese Taipei 15.6 1.3 15 17 Thailand 18.6 1.5 22
18 Sweden 15.2 1.3 13 18 Australia 17.2 1.4 12
19 Australia 15.1 1.3 13 19 Sweden 17.1 1.4 17
20 Thailand 14.7 1.2 28 20 Singapore 16.5 1.4 23
21 Turkey 14.5 1.2 35 21 Norwayb15.9 1.3 ...
22 Denmark 14.3 1.2 4 22 Switzerland 15.4 1.3 21
23 Norwayb14.2 1.2 ... 23 Denmark 14.0 1.1 17
24 Russian Fed. 11.6 1.0 30 24 Indonesia 13.2 1.1 18
25 Greece 9.5 0.8 4 25 Brazil 13.2 1.1 34
26 Philippines 9.3 0.8 38 26 Malaysia 10.6 0.9 21
27 Mexico 8.8 0.7 1 27 Ireland 10.5 0.9 27
28 Poland 8.6 0.7 92 28 Finland 9.7 0.8 39
29 Egypt 8.3 0.7 7 29 Mexico 9.3 0.8 -27
30 Portugal 8.1 0.7 21 30 Israel 9.2 0.8 14
Total ofabove 1040.0 88.8 14 Total ofabove 1039.0 85.2 15
World 1170.0 100.0 14 World 1220.0 100.0 14
aNotcomparable toprevious years duetochange inmethodology.
bEstimate.
END