PRESS/75
28August 1997
WORLD BEEF MARKET POISED FOR ARECOVERY THIS YEAR
SAYS WTO SECRETARIAT REPORT
After three years ofweak prices, theworld beefmarket looks poised forarecovery thisyear
withglobal meatconsumption projected torisefromadiplastyearcaused by"mad cowdisease" fears,
andUnited States expected toimport more beefasitapproaches theendofitscattle liquidation phase.
These areamong thefindings contained inWTO 'sannual report TheInternational Market For
Meats 1996/97 published today. Thereport, prepared bytheSecretariat inaccordance withthe
International Bovine Meat Agreement, presents asummary oftheinternational situation andoutlook
forbovine meatandspecific elements oftheworld beefeconomy onacountry-by-country basis as
wellassummaries ofthesituation andoutlook forpigmeat, poultry meatandsheepmeat.
Among thehighlights ofthereport arethefollowing:
- World beefconsumption isexpected torecover adiplastyearcaused by"mad cow
disease" andother meatsafety concerns andwhich threw theEuropean Communities '
market offbalance, withlargeintervention stocks accumulating inthecourse of1996.
While theEChasalready addressed thecrisis withanumber ofmeasures, further
reforms ofthebeefsector havebeenannounced forthisyear. Beefconsumption in
theECisexpected toriseby2percentto7.07million tonsthisyearincontrast to
adecrease of7percent in1996.
- There aresigns thatthecattle liquidation intheUnited States isapproaching itsend
andthatprices willrecover asfrom late1997, promising higher imports andbetter
returns forOceanian, South American andothersuppliers totheUSmarket. TheUnited
States isprojected toincrease itsbeefimports by10percentthisyearto1.03million
tons, andovertake Japan astheworld 'sbiggest importer ofbeef.
- Anumber ofWTO Members haveconcluded, orareintheprocess ofnegotiating,
veterinary trade agreements based ontheconcepts ofequivalence andregionalization
contained intheWTO Agreement ontheApplication ofSanitary andPhytosanitary
Measures (SPS Agreement). These agreements facilitate trade byreducing thecost
ofcompliance withvarious national standards. TheECreached agreement withNew
Zealand atthebeginning oftheyear, andmore recently withtheUnited States, which
willtakeeffect on1October 1997.
MORE 97-3484PRESS/75
Page2/3
- Anumber ofcountries in1997werecertified bytheInternational Office ofEpizootics
asfreefromfoot-and-mouth disease (FMD), thusenabling themtoexpand beefexport
opportunities. Argentina andParaguay wererecognized asFMD-free withvaccination
inMay1997, while FMD-free zones without vaccination wererecognized inColombia,
Namibia andSouth Africa.
- Anoutbreak offoot-and-mouth disease inChinese Taipei, which supplied 40percent
or380,000 tonsofJapan'sporkimports in1996, hasleftabiggapintheJapanese
market. While large stocks havesofarprevented ashortage ofporkinJapan, prices
inthemajor supplying countries, theEC(Denmark) andtheUnited States, haverisen
sharply.
- Korea, attheendofJune1997, phased outquantitative restrictions onimports offrozen
porkandpoultry meat andreplaced thequotas bytariffs. Thismeasure islikely to
weaken thecompetitiveness ofbeef,although domestic demand isgrowing foralltypes
ofmeat. Beefimports willremain subject toquotas untiltheyear2001 asspecified
inKorea 'sUruguay Round schedule.
- Meat products havebeenthesubject ofseveral trade disputes intheWTO thisyear.
On19August 1997, panel reports wereissued onthecomplaints byCanada andthe
United States, respectively, against EC'sbanonimports ofmeatfromhormone-treated
livestock.ThetworeportsconcludedthattheECmeasureswereinconsistentwithcertain
provisions oftheSPSAgreement. InJuly,apanel wasestablished atBrazil 'srequest
toexamine ECmeasures onimports ofpoultry meat. InApril, theUnited States
requested consultations withthePhilippines regarding thelatter'simplementation of
tariff quotas forporkandpoultry. InFebruary, apanel wasestablished toexamine
complaints byArgentina, Australia, NewZealand andtheUnited States against an
alleged breach byHungary ofitsUruguay Round export subsidies commitments,
including onmeatandmeatproducts. Thecomplainants informed theWTO Members
inJulythattheyhadreached amutually-agreed solution withHungary subject to
approval ofaWTO waiver. InJanuary, theECrequested consultations withJapan
concerning thelatter'ssafeguard measure onporkimports.
TheInternational Markets forMeat 1996/97 isnowavailable inEnglish from theWTO
Secretariat, Price: SwF15.- TheFrench andSpanish editions willbeavailable shortly.
MOREPRESS/75
Page4
WORLD BEEF TRADE FORECAST FOR 1997
Major importers Major exporters
Country 1996 1997 1996/95 1997/96 Country 1996 1997 1996/95 1997/96
('000tons) (%Change) ('000tons) (%Change)
United
States940 1,034 -1 10 Australia 1,016 1,080 -7½ 6½
Japan 871 870 -7½ 0EC 960 910 -4 -5
Russia 650 670 6 3United
States849 860 3 1½
EC 360 380 -2½ 5½ New
Zealand536 568 4½ 6
Korea 196 234 1 20 Argentina 460 480 -11½ 4½
Canada 237 200 -7½ -15½ Brazil 315 360 17 14½
Mexico 60 93 43 55 Canada 286 296 30½ 3½
Brazil 100 80 -21½ -20 Uruguay 210 210 32 0
Note: Beef andveal, intons, carcass weight equivalent.
Source: AMLC, MLC, USDA, WTO.
NOTE TOEDITORS:
TheInternational Bovine Meat Agreement entered intoeffect on1January 1995. Itreplaced
theGATT Arrangement Regarding Bovine Meat (1980-1994). Thefollowing areParties tothe
Agreement:Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Bulgaria,Canada,Chad,Colombia,theEuropeanCommunities
(15),Japan, NewZealand, Norway, Paraguay, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland, theUnited States
andUruguay.
Theprimary objectives oftheAgreement, likeitspredecessor, aretopromote theexpansion,
liberalization andstability oftheinternational meatandlivestock market byimproving theinternational
framework ofworld trade tothebenefit ofconsumers andproducers, importers andexporters; to
encourage greater international cooperation inallaspects affecting tradeinbovine meatandliveanimals;
andtosecure additional benefits fortheinternational tradeofdeveloping countries inbovine meatand
liveanimals.
END