PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/386 
25 October 2004 
 
(04-4511) 
TRADE STATISTICS 
2004 trade growth to exceed 2003 despite higher oil prices 
Despite the sharp rise in oil prices the volume of world trade is likely to grow by 8.5% in real 
terms by the end of 2004, a significant impr ovement over 2003, according to World Trade 
Organization statistics.  
While the price increases for oil and other commodities may dampen growth in trade and overall 
output in 2005, these effects are being outweighed in 2004 by vigorous trade expansion in many countries and stronger than expected recovery in several others. The vigorous trade expansion 
observed in the first half of 2004 is expected to  provide enough momentum to raise global trade 
volume by 8.5%, according to the report.   
“Growth in world trade in 2004 will not be adversely affected by higher oil prices to any great 
extent because we are seeing good growth in trad e and output in China, Latin America and Africa. 
We have also seen stronger than expected econom ic recovery in Japan. Strong demand is behind 
rising prices for oil and other commodities and markets appear to be handling this well,” said 
Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.  
The figures are in the WTO’s latest annual report on International Trade Statistics, parts of which 
are available on the WTO website from today (25 October 2004).  The entire report, with comprehensive data on international trade flows in the recent period up to 2003, will be available 
in November on the website and in printed form. 
 The statistics show that world merchandise trade increased in nominal terms by 16% to 
$7.3 trillion in 2003. In real terms, merchandise trade grew by 4.5% in 2003, compared with 3% 
in 2002 and a decline in 2001. Trade in commercial services grew by 13% to $1.8 trillion in nominal terms.  
Highlights 
Key features of trade performance in 2003 include the following:   
• The further recovery of world trade in 2003 was sustained by stronger economic activity in 
manufacturing and mining, and a continued strong expansion in agriculture. Merchandise trade again expanded faster than output. 
 
• Commodity price developments and exchange rate adjustments left their mark on 
international trade flows measured in dollar terms. The direction of exchange rate movements PRESS/386 
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has generally been considered helpful for correcting prevailing imbalances. However, the 
depreciation of the US dollar has not been sufficient to stop the rise in the US current account 
deficit. And although the continued rise in the United States trade deficit helped to sustain output in other regions, it is worrying because any sudden reduction through lower imports 
could have strong repercussions worldwide (all six regions outside North America recorded a 
surplus in their goods and services balances in 2003). 
 
• The European Union’s enlargement again provided  a stimulus for trade flows between Western 
Europe and the transition economies. For the first time, Western Europe’s merchandise imports from the latter exceeded those originatin g from North America. More than one half of 
Western Europe’s merchandise trade deficit with Asia comes from its trade with China.  
 • Asia’s merchandise exports and imports expanded faster than world trade. With its rapidly 
expanding economy, China has become a major trader. Its surging import demand for oil, 
copper, soybeans, and many other primary commodities contributed significantly to higher prices. China’s increased purchases of inve stment goods, semi-manufactured goods and 
machinery parts has sustained output and exports in many East Asian economies. In 2003, as 
in the second half of the 1990s, China’s merchand ise export growth was twice as high as that 
of world trade. Although China’s imports grew faster than exports in 2003, the country still 
recorded a significant trade surplus. 
 • Higher commodity prices, in particular for fu els, contributed greatly to the rebound of 
merchandise exports of oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, Africa and the transition 
economies.  
 
• After twelve years of successive deficits, Latin America registered a surplus in its merchandise 
trade. China has become an important destination for Latin American exports.  
 
• Trade in office and telecommunications equipment lags well behind the growth of world 
merchandise trade, after being the most dyna mic product category traded throughout the 
1990s. In 2003, office and telecommunications equipment is the only product group that did 
not regain or exceed the previous export peak in 2000. 
 • Trade growth in chemicals started to accelera te after 2000 due to a surge in pharmaceutical 
products. In 2003, world exports of chemicals rose  by 19% to $794 billion. Trade in chemicals 
accounted for nearly 15% of global trade in manufactured goods, amounting to three times more than trade in clothing. It exceeded the va lue of world exports of automotive products by 
10%. 
 
How to access these statistics 
On the WTO website (free): http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm .  
Printed version (available shortly), from WTO publications: http://www.wto.org/english/re s_e/res_e.htm#publications  or 
https://secure.vtx.ch/shop/boutiques/wto_index_boutique.html   
 For more information, contact statistics@wto.org . 
END