WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATIONG/SG/N/8/JOR/3
27 January 2003
(03-0563)
Committee on Safeguards Original:  English
NOTIFICATION UNDER ARTICLE 12.1(B) OF THE AGREEMENT ON
SAFEGUARDS ON FINDING A SERIOUS INJURY OR THREAT
THEREOF CAUSED BY INCREASED IMPORTS
JORDAN
The following notification, dated 7 January 2003, has been received from the Permanent
Mission of Jordan.
_______________
The Permanent Mission of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan presents its compliments to the
World Trade Organization/Safeguards Committee and has the honour to enclose herewith a
notification under Article 12.1(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards regarding the finding of a seriousinjury caused by increased imports of pasta in all its forms and specifications mentioned in the
notification, with the request to have it circulated to the Members.G/SG/N/8/JOR/3
Page 2
In accordance with Article 12.1(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards, Jordan hereby submits its
notification on finding a serious injury caused by increased imports of pasta in all its forms and
specifications.
1. Evidence of serious injury or threat  thereof caused by increased imports
The National Production Protection Directorate (NPPD) has determined that the subject
product has been imported into Jordan in such incr eased quantities during the period of investigation
(1998-2001), as to be a substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic industry.  The NPPD has
recommended the appropriate remedy to the Minister of Industry and Trade who decided to
recommend the application to the Council of Ministers.
The following are the conclusions reached by the NPPD:
- Increased imports
Years 1998 1999 2000 2001
Volume (in kilograms) 1,172,293 1,898,539 2,396,590 3,067,018
Absolute annual increase (in %) - 62% 26% 28%
Absolute increase (comparison with base year) - 62% 104% 162%
Market share (in %) 16% 24% 31% 35%
Ratio between imports and domestic production
(in %)19% 31% 45% 55%
Unit prices (in dinar/kilogram) 0.440 0.390 0.348 0.344
The product concerned is being imported in quantities that have increased suddenly, sharply
and significantly in the most recent past.  The absolute increase in imports of 62 per cent, 104 per cent
and 162 per cent over the base year 1998 to 2001 is sudden, sharp and significant.  This also applies to
the increase in imports relative to domestic production from 19 per cent in 1998 to 55 per cent in
2001.
In observing increased trends of subject imported product in the first six months of the year
2002, it appeared that imports have increased in absolute terms by 195 per cent which shows that the
increase is recent, significant and sharp.
- Serious injury
Situation of Domestic Industry
Years 1998 1999 2000 2001
Capacity (in kg) 13,500,000 13,500,000 13,500,000 13,500,000
Utilization rate of capacity (in %) 46% 46% 40% 41%
Total domestic production (in kg) 6,175,807 6,187,662 5,359,423 5,584,487
Total domestic sales (in kg) 6,252,343 6,146,746 5,389,860 5,583,913
Closing stock (in kg) 128,164 169,080 138,643 139,217
Unit prices of domestic sales (JD/kg) 0.524 0.499 0.437 0.436
Net profit/loss on domestic sales (in %) 13% 19% 6% 8%
Market share (%) 84% 76% 69% 65%
Employment (end of period) 62 62 69 71
Productivity (kg/employee) 99,610 99,801 77,673 78,655G/SG/N/8/JOR/3
Page 3
Based on the above, it was found that:
• Overall production capacity remained stable over the period under consideration (the four
years 1998 to 2001), proving no growth plans by the industry.
• The declining utilization rate of capacity, given fixed capacity, proves that domestic
production is decreasing.
• Sales of domestic industry significantly decreased by 2 per cent, 14 per cent and 11 per
cent in 1999, 2000 and 2001 respectively.  It is apparent that the ultimate decrease in
domestic production was  in 2000 and 2001 which, in turn, coincides with the decrease in
the volume of production.  As for the decrease in the volume of sales in 1999 in
comparison with the volume of production in the same year, it is clear that the impact ofthe sudden increase in imports would lead local producers to reduce production in the
following years as a result of such increase in imports.
• The sudden increase in imports in 1998 resulted in a deterioration of domestic sales,
which resulted in a surge in domestic stocks over the years to 1998 to 1999.  Inventories
rose from 128,164 kg. to 169,080 kg;  an increase of 32 per cent.  Inventories decreased
in subsequent years but were still above the base year.
• Employees were not profoundly affected by the decrease in volume of production and
sales;  employment increased by 14 per cent over the period under consideration.  Thecombination of a drop in the domestic sales and an increase in employment resulted in
declining productivity (by 21 per cent).
• The market share of domestic industry sharply decreased, from 84 per cent in 1998 to
65 per cent in 2001.
• The profit margin of the local industry decreased from 13 per cent to 8 per cent.
In examining the economic indicators, it is determined that the domestic industry is seriously
injured, as it has lost market share, which reached its lowest level in 2001.  Also, other economic
indicators of production, sales, capacity utilization and productivity fell sharply during the period ofinvestigation.  Profitability has also suffered greatly during the period of investigation.
- Causation
Total consumption increased by 16.5 per cent over the four years.  Import volume increased
significantly by 161.6%, domestic production decreased by 9.6 per cent, inventories rose by 8.6 per
cent, market share of domestic products fell from 84 per cent to 65 per cent, and net profit decreased
from 13 per cent of sales to 8 per cent.  These effects prove that there is a causal link between the
increased volume of imports and reduced sales volumes of the like product.  The statistical correlation
of –0.76 between imports and domestic production sh ows a strong negative relationship between the
two indicators.  The attributed increase of impor ts coincides with significant, sharp and recent
deterioration of injury indicators, pointing to a serious overall impairment of the domestic industry's
situation.
The competent authority has determined that the conditions of competition between imports
and domestic product do exist.  Moreover, no other injury factors attributed to injury of the domestic
industry;  as the increase of imports was the sole reason for serious injury of the domestic industry.G/SG/N/8/JOR/3
Page 4
2. Provide a precise description of the product involved
The product concerned is pasta in all its forms and specifications.  The product concerned is
currently classified under HS headings (1902.191, 1902.11) and main HS heading 1902, identified as
pasta whether cooked or stuffed with meat or any other material or otherwise prepared such asspaghetti, macaroni, noodles, lasagne, junoki, ravioli, cannelloni or couscous (Moroccan).
3. Provide a precise description of the proposed measure
It is proposed that definitive safeguard measures be taken in relation to imports in order to
limit imports in excess for a period of three years, in the form of a specific tariff surcharge of 110  fils
per kg. to be reduced by 35 fils each subsequent year the measure is in effect.
4. Provide the expected duration of the measure
The time schedule of application of the measure is pending approval by the Council of
Ministers.
5. For a measure with the duration of more than three years, provide the proposed date
for this review (under Article 7.4) to hold not later than mid-term of the measure, if
such a date for review has already been scheduled
Not applicable.
6. If the expected duration is over one year, provide the expected timetable for progressive
liberalization of the measure
The proposed measure is to be progressively liberalized as indicated in item 4 above.
__________