99-1496 MOREPRESS RELEASE
EMBARGO:  NOT FOR PUBLICATION UNTIL
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PRESS/128
16 April 1999
 WORLD TRADE GROWTH SLOWER  IN 1998 AFTER UNUSUALLY STRONG
GROWTH IN 1997
The rate of growth in the volume of world merchandise exports slowed to 3.5 per cent in
1998, from over 10 per cent in 1997, due largely to continuing economic contraction in much of Asia.
World output growth slipped to 2 per cent in 1998, compared to 3 per cent in 1997.  Although
trade growth still exceeded output growth in 1998, it was by a smaller margin than the average for the
1990s.
Export growth in 1999 is expected to match that of 1998, but for this projection to be realized,
trade growth will have to accelerate during the course of 1999.  This projection also assumes that
slowing output growth in the United States and Western Europe will be offset somewhat by recovery
in Asia.  A faster than expected slowdown in the Un ited States or Western Europe, or slower recovery
in Asia, would clearly imply export volume growth below 3.5 per cent in 1999.
These are among the findings of the WTO's first report on trade developments last year and the
outlook for this year (reproduced below).  Other highlights include the following:
• Trade contraction in Asia has been the bigg est factor in the global trade slowdown:  But
there has been a marked slowdown in global export expansion throughout 1998, reflected in the
performance of all major regions.
• Trade performance measured in volume terms differed widely among regions in 1998,
particularly on the import side:  Imports into Asia fell by 8.5 per cent, stagnated or fell slightly
in Africa and the Middle East, and expanded by 7.5 per cent in Western Europe and by some 10
per cent in North America, Latin America and the transition economies.  Export volume growth
was strongest in the transition economies and Latin America, at 10 per cent and 6.5 per centPRESS/128
Page 2/3
MORErespectively, and increased marginally in Asia (1 per cent).  Western Europe's export growth was
slightly above the global average, at 4.5 per cent, and that of North America was below the
average, at 3 per cent.
• Exports of merchandise and commercial services amounted to US$6.5 trillion in 1998:  In
value terms, merchandise exports amounted to US $5.2 trillion and commercial services to US$1.3
trillion.  This represents a fall of almost 2 per cent in dollar terms over exports in 1997, but still
exceeds the level attained in 1996.  This is the strongest decrease since 1982.  Exports ofcommercial services recorded the first annual decline in value terms since comprehensive
statistics became available in the mid-1980s.
• Commodity prices fell sharply in 1998, pushing the share of primary products in world
exports below 20 per cent in current price terms for the first time in the post-war period:
Oil prices fell by 30 per cent in 1998, or 40 per cent from a year-end to year-end basis.  This
picture has been mitigated by increased oil prices in the first quarter of 1999.  Non-oil primary
commodity prices fell by 15 per cent on a yearly average basis in 1998, and by some 10 per cent
on a year-end basis.  Prices of internationally traded manufactured goods and services also
declined in 1998, but by considerably less than those of primary products.
• Reduced commodity prices have particularly a ffected the export earnings of African and
Middle Eastern countries: In addition to the 11 member countries of OPEC, some eight other
countries depend on fuel exports for more than 50 per cent of their export earnings.  Over twenty,mostly developing countries, depend on agricultural exports for 35 per cent or more of their
export earnings, but these countries are generally not as severely affected as the oil exporters by
commodity price falls.PRESS/128
Page 4
MOREI.  Main features of world trade in 1998
World GDP and trade growth slowed in 1998 as the Asian crisis deepened and its
repercussions were felt increasingly outside Asia.  The volume of world merchandise exports grew by
3.5 per cent in 1998 after an outstanding growth rate of 10.5 per cent in 1997.  This export volume
growth rate compares with an average growth rate of 6.0 per cent in the period 1990-95.  The
deceleration in global output growth was less pr onounced than for international trade in 1998, as
world GDP rose by 2 per cent, or by 1 percentage point less than in 1997 (Chart 1).
The deceleration of global merchandise trade growth continued throughout the year, leaving
the global trade level in the fourth quarter of 1998 only slightly above the level reached at the end of
1997.  All major regions experienced a marked slowdow n of their trade growth in the course of 1998.
The recent cyclical fall in commodity prices, which started in early 1997, continued unabated
throughout 1998. Oil prices fell by 30 per cent and non-oil commodity prices by 20 per cent in 1998,
with very different implications for various countries and regions of the world.  While the share of
primary commodities (including processed food) in world merchandise trade was only slightly above
one-fifth in 1997, it was more than two-thirds for the Middle East, Africa and Latin America(excluding Mexico).  In a sample of 91 developing countries, 67 of them recorded a share of primary
products in total merchandise exports above 50 per cent, reaching as high as 95 per cent in some
cases.
Prices of internationally traded manufactured goods and services also have declined in 1998,
though considerably less than those of primary products.  Exchange rate variations, which were large
in the course of 1998, can have a major impact on the dollar prices of internationally traded goods.However, as the dollar's average annual appreciation vis-à-vis the ECU (now the Euro) was
considerably smaller in 1998 than in 1997, West European export prices measured in dollar terms
decreased far less last year than in 1997.  This smaller decrease in Europe's export prices more than024681012
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98Chart 1
Growth in the volume of world merchandise exports and GDP, 1990-98
(Annual percentage change)
Merchandise exports  GDPPRESS/128
Page 5
MOREoffset the stronger price declines in all other regions.  Therefore, despite the accelerated fall in
commodity prices in 1998, the global price decline for all merchandise exports was 5.5 per cent,which was somewhat less pronounced than in 1997.
Trade performance in 1998 differed widely among regions.  While oil-exporting regions
recorded the strongest annual value declines in merchandise exports, countries directly affected by the
Asian financial crisis reported the strongest import decline.  The contractionary forces of the Asiancrisis and falling commodity prices were, however, attenuated by the robustness of continued
economic growth in the United States and strengthened demand in Western Europe.  The reversal of
private capital flows away from the emerging markets contributed to low interest rates in North
America and Western Europe.  In addition, falling fuel prices led to weaker import prices and real
income gains for net-fuel importing countries.
Western Europe, the world's largest regional trader, was the only region not to record a
deceleration in import growth in 1998 compared to 1997.  Western Europe's import growth rate of 7.5
per cent was, however, less than the 10 per cent rate recorded by North America, Latin America and
the transition economies.  In a sharp contrast, imports into Asia fell by nearly 8.5 per cent, and a
stagnation or a decrease in import volumes is estimated for Africa and the Middle East.
Regional differences in the volume growth of exports are far less pronounced than for
imports.  All regions recorded a lower export expansion in 1998 than in the preceding year.  The
transition economies and Latin America recorded the strongest volume growth.  Asia's export volume
increased marginally, as the strong contraction of intra-Asian trade was only just offset by a sharp rise
in extra-regional flows. Western Europe's export gr owth remained somewhat above the global average
of 3.5 per cent, while that of North America fell below the average.
The dollar value of world merchandise trade declined by 2 per cent, the strongest decrease
since 1982.  The export value of manufactured goods continued to rise slightly while that of
agricultural products, metals and fuels declined.  These divergent developments by product categoryin 1998 pushed the share of primary products below 20 per cent in current price terms for the first
time in the post World War II period.
Exports of commercial services recorded the first annual decline in dollar value since 1983.
All the three major services categories (i.e., transport, travel and other commercial services) saw adecrease.  Exports of goods and commercial serv ices both decreased slightly but at $5225 and $1290
billion respectively, but were still above the levels reached in 1996 (Table 1).
Table 1
World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 1996-98
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Value Annual change
1996 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998
Merchandise 5150 5325 5225 4.5 3.5 -2.0
Commercial services 1275 1320 1290 6.7 3.5 -2.0PRESS/128
Page 6
MOREII.  World trade developments by country and region
In its seventh year of expansion, the United States economy experienced an acceleration in
private consumption and continued double-digit inve stment growth.  GDP growth was almost 4 per
cent, unchanged from 1997.  The booming U.S. economy stimulated intra-NAFTA trade, and
sustained exports and output in other regions.  North America 's merchandise import volume rose by
10.5 per cent in 1998, which was the strongest growth of all regions (Table 2).
Table 2
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade by selected region, 1990-98
(Annual percentage change)
Exports Imports
Average
1990-95 1996 1997 1998Average
1990-95 1996 1997 1998
6.0 5.5 10.5 3.5 World 6.5 6.0 9.5 4.0
7.0 6.0 11.0 3.0 North Americaa7.0 5.5 13.0 10.5
8.0 11.0 11.0 6.5 Latin America 12.0 8.5 22.0 9.5
5.5 5.5 9.5 4.5 Western Europe 4.5 5.5 7.5 7.5
5.5 5.5 9.5 5.0 European Union (15) 4.5 5.0 7.0 7.5
5.0 6.5 12.5 10.0 Transition economies 2.5 16.0 17.0 10.0
7.5 5.0 13.0 1.0 Asia 10.5 6.0 6.0 -8.5
1.5 1.0 12.0 -1.5 Japan 6.5 5.5 1.5 -5.5
11.5 7.5 11.5 2.0 Six East Asian tradersb12.0 4.5 6.5 -16.0
aCanada and the United States.
bChinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China;  Malaysia;  the Republic of Korea; Singapore and Thailand.
Note:  Separate volume data are not available for Africa and the Middle East, although estimates for these regions have been
made in order to calculate the world total.
In value terms, North America's merchandise exports decreased slightly in 1998, as volume
growth decelerated and prices declined.  North America's merchandise imports, however, increased by
4.5 per cent in value terms, leading to a widening of the region's merchandise trade deficit to $253
billion (Table 3).  The evolution in North Amer ica's commercial services trade mirrored that of
merchandise trade, with exports increasing only very slightly and imports rising by 4.5 per cent,reducing further the region's surplus in services trade.
Latin America 's GDP and trade growth slowed sharply in 1998 from the exceptionally high
levels recorded in 1997.  Falling commodity prices , a slowdown in private capital inflows in the
second half of 1998 and weaker export markets within the region and in Asia contributed to this
development.  Marked differences in economic pe rformance occurred for the two largest economies
in the region, with trade and output growth slowin g strongly in Brazil, while Mexico's trade and
output performance remained well above the regional average.  Better access to the rapidly expanding
United States market and a higher share of manufactures in its merchandise exports are among thePRESS/128
Page 7
MOREfactors which explain why Mexico's trade and output developments were, for the fourth year in a row,
superior to those of the other Latin American economies.
For Latin America as a whole, the growth in the volume of merchandise imports continued to
exceed that of merchandise exports by a large margin, and the region's trade expansion – both imports
and exports – remained stronger than the global average.  Latin America's merchandise export value,
on the other hand, decreased by 2 per cent in 1998, as the expansion of Mexico's exports was morethan offset by the decline in exports of all other Latin American countries combined.  In particular,
Ecuador and Venezuela, the two major oil exporting countries in Latin America, experienced the
strongest setback, with decreases in excess of 20 per cent.  Latin America's outstandingly strong
import growth performance throughout the 1990-97 period became less dynamic last year, although at
5 per cent, this region, together with Western Europe , recorded the highest import growth rate of any
region.  Mexico's import growth rate of 14 per cent contrasted with the relative stagnation of imports
in other Latin American countries.  As Mexico has enjoyed an above average rate of growth in tradefor a number of years, its share of total trade in the region has risen considerably, accounting for 40
per cent in 1998.
1 Latin America's exports and imports of commercial services are estimated to have
expanded by 4 to 5 per cent in 1998.
Table 3
Growth in the value of world m erchandise trade by region, 1990-98
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (c.i.f.)
Value Annual percentage change Value Annual percentage change
1998 1990-95 1996 1997 1998 1998 1990-95 1996 1997 1998
5225 7.5 4.5 3.5 -2.0 World 5410 7.5 5.0 3.0 -1.0
898 8.5 6.5 9.5 -1.0 North America 1151 8.0 6.0 10.5 4.5
274 9.0 12.5 10.0 -2.0 Latin America 339 14.5 9.5 19.0 5.0
118 14.0 20.5 15.0 6.5 Mexico 129 12.5 25.5 23.5 14.0
157 7.0 8.0 7.0 -7.0 Other Latin America 211 15.5 2.5 16.5 0.5
2338 6.0 3.5 -0.5 2.5 Western Europe 2359 5.5 3.5 -1.5 5.0
2171 6.5 3.5 -0.5 3.0 European Union (15) 2163 5.5 3.0 -2.0 5.5
178 7.0 6.5 5.0 -1.0 Transition economies 207 5.0 17.0 9.5 3.0
99 7.5 6.0 8.0 9.0 Central/Eastern Europe 133 11.5 17.0 7.0 11.5
106 0.5 16.5 2.0 -16.0 Africa 129 5.5 -1.0 6.0 -1.5
26 3.5 5.5 6.0 -15.0 South Africa 29 10.5 -1.5 9.5 -11.0
138 1.5 17.0 4.0 -21.0 Middle East 139 5.5 7.0 6.5 -6.0
1294 12.0 0.5 5.5 -6.0 Asia 1090 12.0 4.5 0.5 -17.5
388 9.0 -7.5 2.5 -8.0 Japan 281 7.5 4.0 -3.0 -17.0
184 19.0 1.5 21.0 0.5 China 140 20.0 5.0 2.5 -1.5
504 14.0 3.0 2.5 -7.5 Six East Asian tradersa438 15.0 3.0 0.5 -25.0
aChinese Taipei;  Hong Kong, China;  Malaysia;  the Republic of Korea;  Singapore  and Thailand.
                                                     
1Mexico's share in Latin America's merchandise exports in 1998 was 43 and that for merchandise
imports was 38 per cent.PRESS/128
Page 8
MOREStronger demand growth in Western Europe  contrasted with a weaker global economy in
1998, leading to an import expansion which, for the first time since 1992, exceeded the region'sexport growth rate.  Western Europe was the only major region which recorded an increase in the
dollar value of its exports.  Imports in value terms increased by 5 per cent, very close to the expansion
recorded by both North America and Latin America.  The share of Western Europe in world
merchandise trade recovered to 44 per cent fo llowing a marked decrease between 1990 and 1997.
Commercial services imports expanded by 4 per cent in 1998, and commercial services exports by 3per cent.
The interaction between  trade and output in the transition economies  in recent years has
been unique among the major regions.  Sluggish overall economic activity, including a decline in
regional output in recent years, has been accompanied by export and import growth rates above the
global average.  Merchandise imports have expanded significantly faster than world trade in both real
and nominal dollar values. Merchandise export growth, at 10 per cent in volume terms, was thehighest among all regions.  Due to the sharp decline in the dollar export prices, however, the dollar
export value of the region decreased slightly.
Several factors have contributed to this situation, where trade growth has been above the
world average, while output growth has been lower than the world average.  First, inflows of privatecapital have been strong, in particular foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment.
Second, FDI has been associated with a strong increase in capital goods imports, which over recent
years has supported the expansion of exports.  Third, a number of East European countries advanced
considerably with their integration into the EU market, in particular Poland, the Czech Republic and
Hungary.  The strong trade performance of these countries masked a rather mixed picture in othertransition economies.
The commercial services trade of the transition economies has been far less dynamic than
merchandise trade in the last two years, with exports decreasing slightly and imports rising
moderately.  The Russian Federation, the region's largest commercial services trader, reported adecline in exports and imports of about 7 per cent in 1998.  For Central and Eastern Europe, an
increase of 4 per cent was recorded last year.
Africa  and the Middle East  have suffered the brunt of the decline in primary commodity
prices in 1998.  Despite a moderate recovery in Africa's GDP - linked to the recovery of agriculturaloutput - Africa's trade remained sluggish. Export values in the region decreased by 16 per cent in
1998.  Oil-exporting African countries recorded a decrease in exports exceeding one-quarter. Import
values declined only slightly in 1998, but higher trade deficits raise the question whether the 1998
level of import demand can be sustained in 1999.  Available data on commercial services also indicate
decreases in the value of both exports and imports.  As was observed for merchandise trade, exports
of services decreased faster than imports.
Being the region with the highest share of fuels in its merchandise exports, the Middle East
recorded the strongest contraction in export value of all regions.  Exports for the region as a whole
shrank by one-fifth.  The decline in the dollar export value was, however, associated with an increase
in the export volume. The increase in the supply of oil from the region in a period of weak demand
has contributed to a steep erosion of oil prices.  The region's merchandise imports adjusted to somedegree to lower export revenues, falling by 6 per cent in 1998 (Table 4).
Asia  recorded the strongest import contraction in volume and value terms of all regions.
Import volume decreased by about 8.5 per cent under the impact of Japan's import contraction ofPRESS/128
Page 9
MORE5.5 per cent, and that of the Asia (5)2 of more than 20 per cent.  It is estimated that within Asia only a
few countries recorded an increase in import volumes (e.g. Australia, China and India).  As intra-Asian trade accounts for about one half of Asia's merchandise exports, the contraction of the area's
imports also held down export growth.  Asia's export  volume rose marginally as the volume decrease
for Japan, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong, China were more than offset by the strong growth of
exports of the Republic of Korea and the Philippines.  China's exports are also estimated to have
expanded moderately in volume terms.
Table 4
Merchandise exports of emerging markets by product category, 1997
(Percentage shares)
Fuels Metals and
mineralsAgricultural
productsManufactures Total
Middle East 73 2 4 21 100
Africa 44 8 19 29 100
Latin Americaa19 11 36 34 100
Emerging Asiab   5  2 10 83 100
World    9  2 11 78 100
aExcluding Mexico.
bAsia, excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The dollar value of Asia's imports registered an unprecedented decline of 17.5 per cent.  In
1998 Asia (5) imports contracted by one-third, and those of Japan by 17 per cent (Appendix Charts 1
and 2).  Only certain South Asian countries recorded a slight increase in their imports (e.g. India and
Sri Lanka).  The trade performance of most Asian countries improved in the last quarter of 1998,
partly due to the strengthening of the yen and other Asian currencies vis-à-vis  the U.S. dollar.
The sharp import contraction in the Asia (5) c ountries (almost one-third in value terms) is
largely explained by the turnaround in private capital flows and the associated drop in domesticinvestment and consumption levels.  The decrease in  exports of the Asia (5) countries, however, was
stronger than expected even if one takes into account the high share of intra-regional trade in total
trade.  Despite the strong currency devaluations which boosted the price competitiveness of
enterprises in the Asia (5) countries, the combined exports of these countries did not increase their
market shares in the major developed markets.  In fact, China's exports to the United States, Japan andmajor European markets expanded faster than those of the Asia (5) countries in 1998.
One of the striking features of world trade in 1998 was the exceptionally large variation in the
growth rates among countries measured in value te rms.  Consequently, the ranking of the leading
traders changed dramatically for both merchandise and commercial services trade (see AppendixTables 1, 2 and 3).  The reversal of capital flows in 1997-1998 forced many East Asian economies to
cut back sharply on their imports in 1998.  Import declines ranged from 26 to 35 per cent (e.g. the
Republic of Korea 35 per cent, Thailand 33 per cent, Indonesia 34 per cent and Malaysia 26 per cent).
Retained imports of Hong Kong, China and Singapore also contracted in this range, despite their
current account surplus position and stronger internal demand.
                                                     
2These are the countries that were most immediately affected by financial crisis that broke in mid-1997
-  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Thailand.PRESS/128
Page 10
MOREContractionary conditions in Japan and the fall in oil prices led to a fall of 17 per cent in the
dollar value of imports, to a level below that of Germany, the United Kingdom and France.  Ingeneral, Canada, Mexico and many West European countries improved their position among the
leading importers (and exporters), while those of Asian countries and Russia deteriorated.
Fuel exporters generally recorded the strongest decline in merchandise export value among all
countries.  For a number of them, the dollar value of export earnings decreased by one-quarter to morethan one-third in 1998 (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela).  Oil exporters and the East
Asian traders lost, while Mexico and most West European countries gained in market share.
Last year, China's merchandise exports exceeded those of Hong Kong, China for the first
time.  The contraction of Russia's trade under the impact of the fall in fuel prices and the outbreak of
the financial crisis have lowered Russia's (extra-CIS) exports to below those of Ireland and its imports
to less than those of Poland.
Despite the decrease in the nominal value of world trade, a few countries continued to expand
their exports by more than 15 per cent.  This group comprises Ireland, the Philippines, Hungary and
Costa Rica.  Throughout the 1990-98 period these countries expanded their exports two times faster
than the global average.
The United States consolidated its position as the world leading trader in 1998, accounting for
nearly one-sixth of merchandise imports and services exports and one-eighth of merchandise exports
and services imports.
East Asian countries' exports of commercial services decreased in 1998 significantly faster
than their merchandise exports.  One explanation for this development might be that intra-Asian trade
is more important for services than for merchandise exports and thereby more affected by the
contraction of Asian demand.  However, the lack of statistical information on the destination of
services exports precludes confirmation of this possibility.
Although price variations in commercial services  are estimated to be far smaller than those
for merchandise trade in 1998, the variations in the performance of individual services traders were at
least as large as those for merchandise traders.  Among the leading commercial services exporters, the
strongest declines were recorded by Singapore and Malaysia, while India and Spain recordedincreases in excess of 10 per cent.  The Asia (5) countries recorded contractions in their services
imports ranging from about 20 per cent to more than 30 per cent.  India, Spain and Ireland recorded
import increases between 10 and 20 per cent.  Given the provisional nature of the above data and the
past experience of substantial revisions even for year-old data, caution is called for in interpreting
current services statistics.
III. Repercussions of the fall in commodity prices
In 1998, an increase in the supply of many primary commodities coincided with a slowdown
in economic activity, leading to a sharp drop in commodity prices.  Prices of non-fuel commodities
and crude oil fell by 15 per cent and more than 30 per cent, respectively.  Although prices ofmanufactures decreased as well, prices of primary commodities decreased much faster (for the second
year in a row).
As the oil price decline accelerated during the course of the year, the year-over-year change in
December 1998 exceeded 40 per cent.  For non-fuel primary commodities, the period of weaker pricesstarted earlier and moderated in the second half, with the result that the decline at the end of the year
(about 10 per cent) was smaller than the annual average for 1998 (Chart 2). Oil exporters have yet toPRESS/128
Page 11
MOREfeel the full impact of lower spot oil prices on their export earnings.  Investment and government
expenditure is likely to be curtailed in 1999.  Import levels will contract further, as such a steep pricedecline cannot be fully absorbed by a reduction in foreign exchange reserves.
As noted earlier, the steep fall in fuel prices affects in particular the export earnings of the
Middle East and Africa.  Besides the 11 member countries of OPEC, in about another eight countriesfuel exports account for more than one half of export earnings. It is important to note that in the first
quarter of 1999, the spot oil price recovered from its low level in December 1998 following the
announcement of production cuts by oil producers.  It remains to be seen whether this upward trend
will continue or the present price gains will prove sustainable.  While these trends will lead to
downward adjustments in the imports of oil-exporting  countries in 1999, related income gains in oil-
importing countries will at least partially offset this contractionary tendency in world trade.
Exporters of agricultural products are a larger group than oil exporters.  The decline in
agricultural prices therefore affected a larger number of countries, but generally less dramatically than
the oil exporters. This is for two reasons.  First, the decline in agricultural product prices was less
steep than for oil.  Second, the exporters of agricultural products generally depend less on a single
commodity than do the fuel exporters (Appendix Table 4).405060708090100110
Non-fuel primary commodities
Crude petroleum (average)
Source : IMF, International Financial Statistics.Chart 2
Recent Commodity Price Developments, January 97- January 99
(Indices, Januar y 1997=100 )
Jan
97Mar
97Nov
97May
97July
97Sept
97Jan
98Mar
98May
98Jan
99Nov
98Sep
98July
98PRESS/128
Page 12
MOREIV. Global trade outlook for 1999
The slowdown of world trade and output growth had not been reversed by the end of 1998.
While Japan's GDP continued to shrink in the fourth quarter of 1998 and many West European
countries recorded a weakening in their economic performance, the U.S. economy accelerated.
Significantly slower GDP growth in Brazil in 1998 and contraction in Russia will negatively
affect the growth of neighbouring economies with whom they have extensive trade ties.  The sharp
contraction of output and trade in the Asia (5) countries appears to have bottomed out, and a moderate
recovery is the most likely scenario for 1999.  As there is generally a time-lag between reduced export
earnings and lower import levels, the steep fall of oil and commodity prices will have its full impact
on investment and consumption in the commodity exporting countries only in 1999.  The extent of
this impact may be mitigated in the case of oil prices, however, should the recent increases in prices
prove sustainable.
Global output growth may weaken slightly in 199 9.  Moderately weaker growth in the United
States and Western Europe may not be offset by a lower rate of contraction in Japan.  Given the size
of the Russian and Brazilian economies in regional output, production levels in the transition
economies and Latin America is likely at best remain unchanged from the preceding year.
On the basis of this sluggish output growth, overall trade expansion may not differ much in
1999 from the 3.5 per cent observed in 1998.  Even this moderate expansion, however, is associated
with major downside risks and would imply an acceleration of trade growth in the course of 1999.  If
slower output growth in the United States or Western Europe turns out to be more pronounced thanpresently expected, and if the recovery in East Asia (including Japan) is more delayed than projected
by most observers, world trade expansion could be below 3.5 per cent.  The United States is expected
to record the highest growth rate among the industr ial countries in 1999, but on the condition that U.S.
consumers do not rapidly correct their historically low savings rate, and that any stock market
correction will not have a major impact on investor and consumer confidence.PRESS/128
Page 13
MOREAppendix Table 1
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 1998
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Error!
ookma
rk not
fined.
RankEXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f)Share Change
1United States 683.0     12.7  -1 1United States 944.6     17.0 5
2Germany 539.7     10.0   5 2Germany 466.6 8.4 5
3Japan 388.0 7.2  -8 3United Kingdom 316.1 5.7 3
4France 307.0 5.7   6 4France 287.2 5.2 7
5United Kingdom 272.7 5.1  -3 5Japan 280.5 5.0 -17
6Italy 240.9 4.5   1 6Italy 214.0 3.8 3
7Canada 214.3 4.0  -1 7Canada 205.0 3.7 2
8Netherlands 198.2 3.7   2 8Hong Kong, China 188.7 3.4 -12
9China 183.8 3.4   1   retained importsa38.9 0.7 -26
10 Hong Kong, China 174.1 3.2  -7 9Netherlands 184.1 3.3   4
  domestic exports 24.3 0.5     -11 10 Belgium-Luxembourg 158.8 2.9   2
11 Belgium-Luxembourg 171.7 3.2   2 11 China 140.2 2.5  -2
12 Korea, Rep. of 133.2 2.5  -2 12 Spain 132.8 2.4   8
13 Mexico 117.5 2.2   6 13 Mexico 128.9 2.3 14
14 Chinese Taipei 109.9 2.0  -9 14 Chinese Taipei 104.2 1.9  -9
15 Singapore 109.8 2.0      -12 15 Singapore 101.5 1.6 -23
  domestic exports 63.3 1.2     -13  retained importsa54.9 1.8 -31
16 Spain 109.0 2.0 5 16 Korea, Rep. of 93.3 1.7 -35
17 Sweden 84.5 1.6 2 17 Switzerland 80.0 1.4   5
18 Switzerland 78.7 1.5 3 18 Austria 68.3 1.2   5
19 Malaysia 73.3 1.4       -7 19 Sweden 67.6 1.2   3
20 Ireland 63.3 1.2      19 20 Australia 64.7 1.2 -2
21 Austria 61.7 1.1 5 21 Brazil 61.0 1.1 -6
22 Russian Fed.b56.2 1.0     -16 22 Malaysia 58.5 1.1 -26
23 Australia 55.9 1.0     -11 23 Poland 48.0 0.9 13
24 Thailand 53.6 1.0       -7 24 Turkey 46.4 0.8 -4
25 Brazil 51.0 0.9 -3 25 Denmark 45.8 0.8 3
26 Indonesia 48.8 0.9 -9 26 Russian Fed.b44.7 0.8 -18
27 Denmark 47.0 0.9 -4 27 Ireland 43.7 0.8 11
28 Finland 42.4 0.8  4 28 India 42.9 0.8 4
29 Norway 39.6 0.7     -18 29 Thailand 41.8 0.8 -33
30 Saudi Arabia 38.8 0.7     -35 30 Norway 36.2 0.7 1
Total of abovec4748.0     88.3 -1 Total of abovec4696.0     84.4  -2
Worldc5375.0   100.0 -2 Worldc5560.0   100.0 -1
aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS.  Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and import s to
$73.9 billion and $59.5 billion, respectively.
cIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.PRESS/128
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MOREAppendix Table 2
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade (excluding European Union intra-trade), 1998
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f)Share Change
1 European Union (15) 813.8 20.3 0 1 United States 944.6 22.5 5
2 United States 683.0 17.0 -1 2 European Union (15) 801.4 19.1 6
3 Japan 388.0 9.7 -8 3 Japan 280.5 6.7 -17
4 Canada 214.3 5.3 -1 4 Canada 205.0 4.9 2
5 China 183.8 4.6 1 5 Hong Kong, China 188.7 4.5 -12
6 Hong Kong, China 174.1 4.3 -7    retained import sa38.9 0.9 -26
   domestic exports 24.3 0.6 -11 6 China 140.2 3.3 -2
7 Korea, Rep. of 133.2 3.3 -2 7 Mexico 128.9 3.1 14
8 Mexico 117.5 2.9 6 8 Chinese Taipei 104.2 2.5 -9
9 Chinese Taipei 109.9 2.7 -9 9 Singapore 101.5 2.4 -23
10 Singapore 109.8 2.7 -12    retained importsa54.9 1.3 -31
   domestic exports 63.3 1.6 -13 10 Korea, Rep. of 93.3 2.2 -35
11 Switzerland 78.7 2.0 3 11 Switzerland 80.0 1.9 5
12 Malaysia 73.3 1.8 -7 12 Australia 64.7 1.5 -2
13 Russian Fed.b56.2 1.4 -16 13 Brazil 61.0 1.5 -6
14 Australia 55.9 1.4 -11 14 Malaysia 58.5 1.4 -26
15 Thailand 53.6 1.3 -7 15 Poland 48.0 1.1 13
16 Brazil 51.0 1.3 -3 16 Turkey 46.4 1.1 -4
17 Indonesia 48.8 1.2 -9 17 Russian Fed.b44.7 1.1 -18
18 Norway 39.6 1.0 -18 18 India 42.9 1.0 4
19 Saudi Arabia 38.8 1.0 -35 19 Thailand 41.8 1.0 -33
20 India 33.2 0.8 -3 20 Norway 36.2 0.9 1
21 Philippines 29.3 0.7 17 21 Philippines 32.0 0.8 -17
22 Czech Rep. 26.4 0.7 16 22 Argentina 31.4 0.7 3
23 South Africa 26.3 0.7 -15 23 South Africa 29.3 0.7 -11
24 Poland 26.3 0.7 2 24 Israel 29.1 0.7 -5
25 Turkey 26.1 0.7 0 25 Czech Rep.c28.8 0.7 6
26 Argentina 25.2 0.6 -1 26 Indonesia 27.4 0.7 -34
27 United Arab Emirates 24.2 0.6 -16 27 United Arab Emirates 27.0 0.6 -10
28 Israel 23.3 0.6 3 28 Hungary 25.8 0.6 22
29 Hungary 22.9 0.6 20 29 Saudi Arabia 23.7 0.6 -13
30 Venezuela 17.2 0.4 -25 30 Chile 18.8 0.4 -4
Total of aboved3704.0 92.2 -4 Total of aboved3786.0 90.1 -4
Worldd4018.0 100.0 -4 Worldd4200.0 100.0 -3
aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS.  Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and import s to $73.9
billion
and $59.5 billion, respectively.
cImports are valued f.o.b.
dIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.PRESS/128
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MOREAppendix Table 3
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 1998
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value Share Change
1 United States 233.6 18.1 1 1 United States 161.5 12.5 6
2 United Kingdom 99.5 7.7 8 2 Germany 121.8 9.4 3
3 France 78.6 6.1 -2 3 Japan 109.5 8.5 -10
4 Germany 75.7 5.9 1 4 United Kingdom 76.1 5.9 7
5 Italy 70.1 5.4 -2 5 Italy 69.3 5.4 -1
6 Japan 60.8 4.7 -11 6 France 62.8 4.9 1
7 Netherlands 48.3 3.7 -1 7 Netherlands 44.8 3.5 2
8 Spain 48.0 3.7 10 8 Canada 34.8 2.7 -3
9 Belgium-Luxembourg 34.7 2.7 4 9 Belgium-Luxembourg 33.6 2.6 6
10 Hong Kong, China 34.2 2.6 -11 10 Austria 28.7 2.2 1
11 Austria 31.0 2.4 6 11 China 28.6 2.2 -5
12 Canada 28.8 2.2 -2 12 Spain 27.3 2.1 12
13 Switzerland 26.3 2.0 3 13 Chinese Taipei 23.4 1.8 -3
14 Korea, Rep of 23.6 1.8 -7 14 Korea, Rep of 23.0 1.8 -21
15 China 23.0 1.8 -6 15 Hong Kong, China 22.7 1.8 -2
16 Turkey 22.4 1.7 17 16 Sweden 20.6 1.6 6
17 Singapore 18.2 1.4 -40 17 Brazil 18.9 1.5 7
18 Sweden 17.4 1.4 -1 18 Ireland 18.0 1.4 20
19 Chinese Taipei 16.6 1.3 -2 19 Singapore 18.0 1.4 -7
20 Australia 15.8 1.2 -14 20 Russian Fed. 17.8 1.4 -7
21 Denmark 15.7 1.2 4 21 Australia 16.7 1.3 -9
22 Norway 13.9 1.1 -2 22 Switzerland 15.0 1.2 6
23 Russian Fed. 12.9 1.0 -7 23 Denmark 14.9 1.2 -1
24 Thailand 12.8 1.0 -18 24 Norway 14.8 1.1 2
25 Mexico 11.9 0.9 6 25 Saudi Arabia 13.9 1.1 0
26 Malaysia 10.9 0.8 -27 26 India 13.7 1.1 12
27 India 10.5 0.8 22 27 Mexico 12.5 1.0 6
28 Greece 9.9 0.8 8 28 Thailand 12.2 0.9 -29
29 Poland 8.9 0.7 -1 29 Indonesia 11.9 0.9 -26
30 Israel 8.7 0.7 4 30 Malaysia 11.9 0.9 -32
Total of above 1123 87.0 -1 Total of above 1100 85.2 -1
World 1290 100.0 -2 World 1290 100.0 -1
Note:  Secretariat estimates based on incomplete or preliminary data.PRESS/128
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MOREAppendix Table 4
Traders with a high share of agricultural products in  their merchandise exports,
1990 and 1997
(Percentages)
1990 1997
Malawi … 92
Belize 91 90
Paraguay 90 82
Mozambique … 78
Iceland 80 75
Madagascar 70 72
Costa Rica 64 67
Nicaragua 89 63
Uruguay 61 61
New Zealand 63 61
Ecuador 46 61
El Salvador 41 56
Argentina 61 53
Zimbabwe 44 51
Honduras 86 43
Bolivia … 40
Cameroon 36 37
Chile 33 37
Colombia 37 37
Brazil 31 35
Morocco 29 35
Peru 25 34
Mauritius 33 31
Australia 30 30
Source : WTO, Annual Report 1998 .PRESS/128
Page 17
MORE-40-30-20-10010
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Merchandise Imports (cif)
(Percentage change over previous year)-10-5051015
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Merchandise Exports (fob)
(Percentage change over previous year)Appendix Chart 1
Merchandise trade of Asian countries in financial crisisa, 1997-98
(Billion dollars and percentage)
 a The group comprises:  Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand.-15-10-5051015202530
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Trade Balance (fob-cif)
(Billion dollars)PRESS/128
Page 18
END-15-10-50510
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Appendix Chart 2
Merchandise trade of Japan, 1997-98
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Merchandise Exports (fob)
(Percentage change over previous year)
-20-15-10-505
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Merchandise Imports (cif)
(Percentage change over previous year)
05101520253035
97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4Trade balance (fob-cif)
(Billion dollars)