WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATIONG/AG/NG/S/16
9 October 2000
(00-4121)
Committee on Agriculture
Special SessionOriginal:  English
STUDIES ON THE IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPACT OF THE
AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE
A Compilation by the Secretariat
1. At the first Special Session of the Committee on Agriculture on 23-24 March 2000, it was
agreed that the Secretariat would provide, inter alia , "an update and extension of the information
contained in AIE/S7" (paragraph 7(b) of G/AG/NG/1).  To this effect the Secretariat invited the
FAO, the International Grains Council (IGC), the IMF, the OECD, UNCTAD, the World Bank and
the World Food Programme to provide the relevant information.  The international organizations
concerned were informed that the studies which mi ght be relevant in the present context include:
analyses of the projected or actual impact of th e Uruguay Round on trade in agriculture generally or in
relation to products of current and potential interest to developing countries;  studies or analyses
which examine the implementation of specific elements or provisions of the Uruguay Round
Agreement on Agriculture relating to special and di fferential treatment;  and studies relating to the
situation of the least-developed and net food-importing developing countries in the context of theMarrakesh Ministerial Decision on Measures concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform
Programme.  In addition, it was noted that studies analysing the broader impacts of the
implementation of the Uruguay Round as a whole on developing countries would also be relevant.
Finally, the Secretariat invited the international organizations concerned to provide, where feasible,
information on relevant ongoing studies or new projects.
3. The Secretariat has received responses from six of the international organizations that were
approached.  The information provided, supplemented by references to studies undertaken by theSecretariat itself, is contained in the Attachments to this note.  In Attachment 1, a list of the studies is
provided by institution, including the full title of the study as well as an indication as to whether the
study in question is a completed study, a project under preparation, or a project which is at the
planning stage.  The international organizations were also requested to provide, where available,
executive summaries and/or conclusions of each study which is already published or available, as wellas a brief summary outline of studies which are under way or planned.  This information is presented
in Attachment 2.  It should be noted that, in some cases, the responses received by the Secretariat
include studies which are not specifically addressing the issues identified in paragraph 1 above.  They
have nevertheless been listed in this document as they may contain some useful background
information.  Studies dated before 1990 have not been included.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ATTACHMENT 1 ................................................................................................................... .............................3
LIST OF STUDIES ON THE IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPACT OF THE  AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE ON
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ............................................................................................................................... ..3
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO) ...............................................................................3
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ..............................3
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ................................8
INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL (IGC)............................................................................................. 10
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF)............................................................................................11ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD)....................12UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD)...........................13
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................13
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ..............................15
WORLD BANK ..................................................................................................................... .............................16
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................16
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ..............................22
(iii) Planned research projects................................................................................................. ...........................24
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO) ................................................................................................. 25
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................25
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ..............................25
(iii) Working papers............................................................................................................ ...............................25
(iv) Other studies by WTO staff ................................................................................................. .......................25
ATTACHMENT 2 ................................................................................................................... ...........................26
EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES AND /OR CONCLUSIONS OF STUDIES ON THE IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPACT OF
THE  AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES .............................................................26
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION .........................................................................................26
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................26
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ..............................47
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND .................................................................................................... ...50
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................50
ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT...................................56
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................56
(ii) Work in Progress ........................................................................................................... .............................59
(iii) Work at the Planning Stage................................................................................................ .........................63
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT ...............................................64
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................64
(ii) Work in progress........................................................................................................... ..............................76
WORLD BANK ..................................................................................................................... .............................79
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ............................79
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION....................................................................................................... ......110
(i) Completed studies........................................................................................................... ..........................110G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 3
ATTACHMENT 1
List of Studies on the Implementation and Impact of the
Agreement on Agriculture on Developing Countries
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO)1
(i) Completed studies
1993
1. "Price Stabilization Mechanisms for Imported Agricultural Products in Latin America and the
Caribbean".  Proceedings and papers submitted to FAO/World Bank Round Table held inSantiago, Chile, Oct. 1993.  (ES)
2. "Policy Change and Agricultural Trade in Africa South of the Sahara".  Proceedings and
papers submitted to FAO/ECOWAS Expert Consultation held in Akasomba, Ghana, 1993.
(EF)
1994
3. "The Impact of a Changing International Trade Environment on Agricultural Trade in the
Near East Region".  Proceedings and papers submitted to Expert Consultation held in Nicosia,
Cyprus, December 1994.  (E)
4. "Implications for the Uruguay Round for Europ ean Union Trade with Third Countries with
Specific Reference to Fresh Fruits and Vegetable Trade with the Near East  Region", by
A. Swinbank, University of Reading, and C. Ritson, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne,
RNEA/8O7/ EC/3, December 1994.  (E)
5. "The Uruguay Round and Global Grain Trade", Cereal Policies Review, 1993-94, July 1994.
(EFS)
6. "The Uruguay Round Final Act and Its Implications for the World Livestock and Meat
Economy".  Prepared for the 15th Session of the IGG on Meat, CCP:ME/94/4, Oct. 1994.
(EFS)
7. "The Impact of the Uruguay Round and other Measures Affecting Wine Trade".  Prepared  for
the 6th Session of the IGG on Wine and Vine  Products, CCP:WI/94/8, Sept. 1994.  (EFS)
1995
8. "A Review of Commitments in the Cereal Sector Under the Uruguay Round Agreement",
Cereal Policies Review, 1994-95, Aug. 1995.  (EFS)
                                                     
1 The language in which the study concerned is available is indicated in brackets (E - English, F -
French, S - Spanish).G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 4
9. "GATT's Effect on Rice: Plus ça va et plus  ça change?", by Chan Ling Yap, CERES, No. 154,
Vol. 27, No. 4, July-August 1995.  (EFS)
10. "Impact of the Uruguay Round on Trade in Jute and its Competing Products".  Prepared for
the 30th Session of the IGG on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres, CCP:JU/95/3, July 1995.
(EFS)
11. "The Uruguay Round Final Act and its Implications for the World Oilseeds Economy".
Prepared for the 27th Session of the IGG on Oilseeds, Oils and Fats, CCP:OF/95/2,
May 1995.  (EFS)
12. "Impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement on the World Tea Economy".  Prepared for the
11th Session of the IGG on Tea, CCP:TE/95/3, April 1995.  (EFS)
13. "Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture", FAO, Rome 1995, 102 pp.  (EFS)
14. "The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture: Implications for Food Security in the Asia
and Pacific Region", in: Benefits and Challeng es Facing Asia-Pacific Agricultural Trading
Countries in the Post-Uruguay Round Period, ESCAP.  (E)
1996
15. "Review of Cereal Price Situation in Selected Developing Countries in 1995-96 and Policy
Measures to Offset the Price Rise".  Commodities and Trade Division, Rome, 1996, ESCP
No. 1.  (E)
16. "Agricultural Price Instability: Report of a Meeting of Experts".  Commodities and Trade
Division, Rome, 10-11 June 1996, ESCP/No. 2, 26 pp.  (E)
17. "An Overview of Assessments of the Impact  of the Uruguay Round on Agricultural Prices
and Incomes",  by R. Sharma, P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield, Food Policy, Vol. 21,
No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
18. "The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture:  Food Security Implications for Developing
Countries", by J. Greenfield, M. de Nigris a nd P. Konandreas, Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5,
Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
19. "Uruguay Round Commitments on Domestic Su pport: their Implications for Developing
Countries", by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield, Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5,
Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
20. "Implications of the Uruguay Round on the World Rice Economy",  by Chan Ling Yap,
Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
21. "Potential Erosion of Trade Preferences in Agricultural Products", by F. Yamazaki, Food
Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
22. "Impact of the Uruguay Round on the World Hides and Skins Economy".  Prepared for the
5th Session of the Sub-Group on Hides and Skins, CCP:ME/96/5, May 1996.  (EFS)
23. "Impact of the Uruguay Round on Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Effects on the World
Citrus Market to 2000".  Prepared for the 11th Session of the IGG on Citrus Fruit,
CCP:CI/96/4, April 1996.  (EFS)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 5
24. "Changing Trade Environment for Oilseeds and Products in the Asia and Pacific Region".
Report of Expert Consultation held in Bangkok, Thailand, January 1996, based on a
background paper by M. Pasquali.  (E)
25. "Impact of Regional Agreements in Latin America on Rice Trade".  Prepared for the 38th
Session of the IGG on Rice, CCP:RI/96/inf3, 1996.  (EFS)
1997
26. "Policy options for developing countries to support food security in the post-Uruguay Round
period", by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield.  Paper presented to the Seminar on Markets and
Institutions for Food Security, Brussels, 10-12 December 1997.  (E)
27. "L'accord sur l'agriculture de l'OMC: Conséquences pour le Sénégal", by J. Lindland and P.
Konandreas, December 1997, 63 pp. plus Annexes.  (F)
28. "The Food Situation in the Least Developed and Net Food Importing Developing Countries".
Paper presented to the WTO Committee on Agriculture, November 20-21, 1997.  (E)
29. "The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture in Southern Africa:  Implications and
Policy Responses".  Proceedings of an FAO/SADC Workshop held in Harare 21-23 January
1997,  223 pp., Rome, December 1997.  (E)
30. "Food Aid and the Implementation of the Marrakesh Decision".  Paper presented to the Food
Aid Committee, June 1997.  (E)
31. "The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Tariff Escalation in Agricultural Products", by
J. Lindland, April 1997, 84 pp.  (E, summary in FS)
32. "Trade Aspects of a Central-American Policy on Basic Grains", ESCP Working Paper,
April 1997.
33. "Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreement in Latin America: the Case of Agriculture".
FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Santiago, Chile, 28-30 November 1995, Feb. 1997,
204 pp.  (ES)
34. "The 1999 Multilateral Negotiations on Agriculture for Continuing the Reform Process:
Issues and a Work Programme for Asia", by R. Sharma, December 1997.  (E)
1998
35. "The implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture for Developing countries:
A Training Manual", Training Material for Agricultural Planning No. 41, FAO, Rome,1998.
(EFS)
36. "Medium-term Outlook for Agricultural Commodities," by J. Greenfield.  Paper Presented to
a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.  (E)
37. "Challenges and Opportunities:  How do Develo ping Countries Prepare for the Next Round of
Trade Negotiations?" by J. Greenfield.  Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round
Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.  (E)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 6
38. "The Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Agricultural Commodity Markets", by
J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China,
June 1998, FAO, Rome.  (E)
39. "Is Freer Agricultural Trade Harmful for National Food Security?  The case of least
developed and net food-importing developing count ries", by H. de Haen and P. Konandreas,
FAO, 1998. (E)
40. "Policy Options for Developing Countries to  Support Food Security in the Post-Uruguay
Round Period", by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield, Canadian Journal of Development
Studies, 1998.  (E)
41. "The Uruguay Round, the Marrakesh Decision and the Role of Food Aid", by
Panos Konandreas, Ramesh Sharma and J. Greenfield.  Paper presented to the International
Workshop on Food and Human Security:  The Role of Food Aid and Finance for Food,Lysebu, Oslo, 26-29 April 1998.  (E)
42. "Safeguarding Food Security in the Continuation of the Reform Process under the WTO", by
P. Konandreas.  Paper presented to Agriculture, Trade and the WTO: preparing for the 1999
Negotiations, An International Workshop of NGOs and Farmers, 15-18 May 1998, Geneva.
(E)
43. "Preparation for the Next Trade Negotiations on Agriculture". Proceedings and papers
submitted to Expert Consultation held in Rabat, Morocco, December 1998.  (E)
44. "The Evolving Nature of International Price Instability in Cereals Markets," Alexander Sarris,
April 1998.  (E, summary in F and S)
45. "Implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement for South Asia: The Case of Agriculture".
FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal, 22-24 April 1996, 1998.  (E)
46. "Preparing for Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture: Articulation of Issues and
Positions", by R. Sharma, J. Greenfield and P. Konandreas. Paper presented to
IFPRI/DSE/CTA International Workshop on Agricultural Policy of African Countries and
Multilateral Trade Negotiations – Challenges and Options, Harare, Zimbabwe, November 23-26, 1998.  (E)
47. "The Implications of the Uruguay Round and Other Developments on the Importers of Basic
Foodstuffs in Sub-Saharan  Africa", by R. Sharma, P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield. Paper
presented to IFPRI/DSE/CTA International Wo rkshop on Agricultural Policy of African
Countries and Multilateral Trade Negotiations – Challenges and Options, Harare, Zimbabwe,
November 23-26, 1998.  (E)
48. Report on the Round Table on Uruguay Round Agreements – Implications for Agriculture
and Fisheries in Pacific Island Countries, Aukland, September 1998.  (E)
49. "Uruguay Round Agreements: Implications for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in the Less
Advantaged Countries", Proceedings of a Workshop Co-organised by the Agency for
International Trade, Information and Cooperation (AITIC) and FAO Geneva, 22-
23 September 1998.  (E)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 7
1999
50. "Environment, Trade and SARD: Concepts, Issues and Tools". Background Paper 4 in
Cultivating our Future. Proceedings of the FAO/Netherlands Conference on the
Multifunctional Character of Agriculture and Land, Masstricht, the Netherlands, 12-
17 September 1999.  (E)
51. Forthcoming Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture: Policy Issues and Options for
African Countries.  Paper Presented to the Second Meeting of The AEC Conference of
African Ministers of Trade, Algiers, Algeria, September, 20-24, 1999.  (E)
52. Issues for Upcoming Multilateral Negotiations on Agriculture and Recommendations for
CARICOM Preparatory Work, by T. Josling, 1999.  (E)
53. "Trade Issues: FAO Fact Sheets", Rome, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur/seattle.htm.  (E)
54. "Answers to Selected Questions for Deutscher Bundestag Hearing on Coherence of
Development and Agricultural Policy in the Context of the EU and WTO", by Ramesh
Sharma, 24 March 1999, Bonn.  (E)
55. "FAO Trade-Related Technical Assistance and Information", FAO, Rome, 1999.  (E)
56. "Supporting Import-competing Agricultural Sectors with Tariffs, Safeguards and Domestic
Measures within the Framework of the Urug uay Round Agreements", by R. Sharma and
P. Konandreas, FAO, Paper presented at a Round Table held in New Delhi, India,
January 1999.
57. "Trade Issues Facing Small Island Developing States", by T. Raney, Background paper for
the Special Ministerial Conference on Agriculture in Small Island Developing States, Rome,
March 12, 1999.  (E)
58. "Effects of Trade Liberalization on the World Sugar Market", by Michael K. Wohlgenant,
FAO, Rome, 1999.  (EFS)
59. "International Prospects for Dairying in the New WTO Context", Report and Papers of an
International Symposium, jointly organized by FAO, the Pan-American Dairy Federation, and
the International Dairy Federation, Bulletin of the International Dairy Federation, No. 343,Brussels, 1999.  (ES)
2000
60. "Salient trends in world agricultural production, demand and trade and in food security",
Paper No. 1, Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO
Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, an FAO Symposium held at
Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur. Also issued in Volume I:
Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
61. "Developments in global agricultural markets,  1995-98", Paper No. 2, Agriculture, Trade and
Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of
Developing Countries, an FAO Symposium he ld at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO
website:  www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I: Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 8
62. "Issues at stake relating to agricultural development, trade and food security," Paper No. 4,
Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries, an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–
24 September 1999, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur. Also issued in Volume I: Report and
Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
63. "Food security and the WTO trade negotiations: key issues raised by the World Food
Summit", Paper No. 5, Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO
Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, an FAO Symposium held at
Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur. Also issued in Volume I:
Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
64. "Measures to enhance agricultural development, trade and food security in the context of the
WTO negotiations", Paper No. 6, Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options inthe WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, an FAO Symposium
held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur. Also issued in
Volume I: Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
65. "Commodity Market Review 1999-2000", Commodities and Trade Division, FAO, Rome,
2000.  (ACEFS)
66. "Medium-Term Prospects for Agricultural Commodities: Projections to the Year 2005", FAO,
Rome, August 2000.  (AEFS).
67. "Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries", Volume I, Report and Papers of an FAO Symposium
held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
68. "The WTO Negotiations on Agriculture: Post-Seattle Major Issues, Analytical Needs and
Technical Assistance Requirements".  Summary Report on an Informal Inter-Agency
Meeting, Organized by FAO, Rome, 12-13, June 2000, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur.  (EFS)
69. "Agriculture:  Towards 2015/2030 – Full Technical Interim Report.  FAO, Rome, FAO
website:  www.fao.org/ur.
(ii) Work in progress
70. "Experience with the Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture:
Synthesis of Fourteen Country Case Studies,"  Paper No 3, Agriculture, Trade and Food
Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing
Countries, an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website:
www.fao.org/ur. To be issued in Volume II:  Country Case Studies, forthcoming, Rome 2000.
(AEFS)
71. "Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries", Volume II:  Country Case Studies, Rome,
forthcoming, 2000.  (AEFS)
72. "Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture:  A Resource Manual", FAO, Rome,
forthcoming, 2000.  (AEFS)G/AG/NG/S/16
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73. "Experience with the Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture".
63rd Session of the FAO Committee on Co mmodity Problems (CCP), FAO, Rome,
forthcoming, January 2001.  (ACEFS)
74. "Analysis of the Current Market Access Situation and of Further Trade Expansion Options in
Global Agricultural Markets".  63rd Session of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems
(CCP), FAO, Rome, forthcoming, January 2001.  (ACEFS)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 10
INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL (IGC)
While the International Grains Council Secretariat has not conducted studies specificallyaimed at assessing the impact of the WTO rules on international grain flows, its regular
monitoring of developments in global grain ma rkets, in the form of monthly Grain Market
Reports (GMR), has provided an independent and authoritative source of information for bothgrain importers and exporters.  These reports have provided a basis for members of the
International Grains Council to further their co-operation, inter alia , to contribute to "the
stability of international grain markets in the interests of all members, to enhance world food
security, and to contribute to the development of countries whose economies are heavily
dependent on commercial sales of grain".
"Grain Markets and Food Aid", by Germain Denis. European Symposium on Net Food-
Importing Developing Countries, Aachen, Germany, March 1997.
2
                                                     
2 Copies of this paper are available from the WTO Agriculture and Commodities Division.G/AG/NG/S/16
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF)
1. "The Burden of Sub-Saharan African Own Commitments in the Uruguay Round - Myth or
Reality?", by Piritta Sorsa (WP/95/48).
2. "The Uruguay Round and the Net Food Importers", by Uwe Eiteljörge and Clinton Shiells
(WP/95/143).
3. "Effects of the Uruguay Round on Egypt a nd Morocco", by Clinton Shiells, Avind
Subramanian and Peter Uimonen (WP/96/7).
4. "Implications of the Uruguay Round for Kenya", by Rupa Chanda (WP/96/8).
5. "Trade and Industrialzation in Developing Agricultural Economies"  by Sergei Dodzin,
Athanasio Vamvukadis, European Research Department;  Working paper WP/99/145,
October 1999.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 12
ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
(OECD)
1. "The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture an d Processed Agricultural Products", Paris,
1997.
2. "Agricultural Policies in Emerging and Transition Economies 2000".
3. "Domestic and International Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization".G/AG/NG/S/16
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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD)
(i) Completed studies
1990
1. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round: Implications for Developing
Countries".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD ITP/48).
1995
2. "Identification of New Trading Opportunities Arising from the Implementation of the
Uruguay Round Agreements in Selected Sectors and Markets: Agriculture, textiles and
clothing, and other industrial products".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat  (TD/B/WG.8/2
and TD/B/WG.8/2/Add.1).
3. "Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture by Major Developed
Countries".  Consultancy report by  S. Tangermann  (UNCTAD/ITD/16).
4. "Translating Uruguay Round special provisions for least developed countries into concrete
action: issues and policy requirements". Report by the UNCTAD secretariat
(UNCTAD/B/WG.8/3 and Add. 1).
5. "The Uruguay Round and international commodity trade and prices".  Report by the
UNCTAD secretariat  (TD/B/CN.1/30).
6. "Jute and hard fibres:  Overview of major current issues".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat
(UNCTAD/COM/71).
7. "Prospects for the world sugar economy in light of Uruguay Round Agreements".  Report by
the UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD/COM/72).
8. "Rice and the Uruguay Round Agreement:  Some expected outcomes".  Report by the
UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD/COM/74).
9. "Recent Trends on the World Coffee Market".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat
(UNCTAD/COM/59).
10. "The Uruguay Round Agreement and the Cotton Market:  A preliminary overview".  Report
by the UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD/COM/77).
1996
11. "Strengthening the Participation of Developing Countries in World Trade and the Multilateral
Trading System".  Paper prepared the UNCTAD Secretariat and the WTO Secretariat, with
the assistance of ITC UNCTAD/WTO, as a contribution to UNCTAD IX.
12. "The Uruguay Round Agreement and the Meat Market:  A preliminary overview".  Report by
the UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD/COM/76).G/AG/NG/S/16
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13. "The Least Developed Countries: 1996 Report".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat
(UN publication, sales no. E.96.II.D.3).
1997
14. "Trade Opportunities in the International Processed Horticultural Markets".  Consultancy
report by J.A. Giles  (UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.4).
15. "Trade Opportunities for Processed Meat". Consultancy report by L.J. Colby
(UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.5).
16. "Trade Opportunities in the World Beverages Sector".  Consultancy report by LMC
International Ltd. Oxford, UK   (UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.6).
17. "Opportunities for Vertical Diversification in the Food processing Sector in Developing
Countries".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat  (TD/B/COM.1/EM.2/2).
18. "Diversification in Commodity-Dependent Countries:  the Role of Governments, Enterprises
and Institutions".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat  (TD/B/COM.1/12).
19. "The Uruguay Round and its Follow-Up: Building a positive agenda for development".
Report by the UNCTAD secretariat  (UNCTAD/ICTD/TED/2).
1998
20. "International Trade Liberalization and Implications for Diversification in Africa"
(ITCD/COM/1).  Document prepared by the Commodities Branch.
21. "Uruguay Round Results and the Emerging Trade Agenda:  Quantitative-based Analyses
from the Development Perspective", 01.08.98, UNCTAD PUBL/98/23.
1999
22. "Preparing for Future Multilateral Trade Negotiations;  Issues and Research Needs from a
Development Perspective", 01.06.99, UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/6.
2000
23. "Impact of the Reform Process in Agricultu re on LDCs and Net Food-Importing Developing
Countries and Ways to Address Their Concerns in Multilateral Trade Negotiations".
Background note by the UNCTAD secretariat to the Expert Meeting on Impact of the Reform
Process in Agriculture on LDCs and Net Fo od-Importing Developing Countries and Ways to
Address their Concerns in Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Geneva (TD/B/COM.1/EM).
24. "The Interests of Developing Countries in the Next Round of WTO Agricultural
Negotiations", by Tim Josling and Stef an Tangermann (UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/10).
25. "Notes on the Implementation of the Agreem ent on Agriculture", by Miho Shirotori, in
Positive Agenda and Future Trade Negotiations (UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/10).
26. "Agricultural Trade Barriers, Trade Negotiations, and the Interests of Developing Countries",
by Hans Binswanger and Ernst Lutz.  (Paper prepared for the High-level Table on Trade and
Development:  Directions for the Twenty-first Century) (TD(X)/RT.1/8).G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 15
27. "International Trade in Genetically Modified Organisms and Multilateral Negotaitions:  A
New Dilemma for Developing Countries", by Si monetta Zarrilli (Unedited paper.)  (GE./...)
28. "WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement:  Issues for Developing Countries",
Simonetta Zarrilli, in Positive Agenda and Future Trade Negotiations ,
UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/10.
29. "Interests and Options of Developing and Least-Developed Countries in a New Round of
Multilateral Trade Negotiations", T. Ademola Oyejide, G-24 Discussion Paper Series , No. 2,
05.01.00, UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/2.
30. "The Millenium Round and Developing Countries:  Negotiating Strategies and Areas of
Benefits", Arvind Panagariya, G-24 Discussion Paper Series , No. 1, 03.01.00,
UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/1.
(ii) Work in progress
31. "Simulation of various tariff-cutting formulas on market access in agricultural products".  (To
be completed in 1998.)
32. "Simulation of the trade and price effects of further reduction commitments as part of the
continuation of the reform process in agriculture using UNCTAD's Agricultural trade policy
simulation model (ATPSM)".   (To be completed in 1998.)
33. "World Commodity Trends and Prospects" A/55/…  (This report has been prepared as an
input to the fifty-fifth session of the General Assembly of the United Nations.  Its document
number and date of issue are not known at this time.)  Document prepared by theCommodities Branch.
34. "Assessing the Results of General Equilibrium Studies of Multilateral Trade Negotiations",
Joseph François, in Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series ,
No. 3, UNCTAD/ITCD/TAB/4.  (Forthcoming - November 2000.)
35. "What Can Developing Countries Infer from the Uruguay Round Models for Future
Negotiations ", John Whalley, in Policy Studies in International Trade and Commodities
Study Series , No. 4, UNCTAD/ITCD/TAB/6.  (Forthcoming - November 2000.)
36. "An Integrated Approach to Agricultural Trade and Development Issues:  Exploring the
Welfare and Distribution Issues", Robert Scollay, in Analytical Studies on International
Trade Issues:  The Development Perspective , UNCTAD.  (Forthcoming – 2001.)
37. "Issues at Stake for Developing Countries in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations",
Harry de Gorter, in Analytical Studies on International Trade Issues:  The Development
Perspective , UNCTAD.  (Forthcoming.)
38. "Analyzing the Economics of Trade Liberaliza tion with Tariff-Quotas in the Uruguay Round
Agreement on Agriculture", Ulla Kask, Harry de Gorter.  (Forthcoming.)G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 16
WORLD BANK
(i) Completed studies
1990
1. "Bangladesh - Review of the experience with Policy Reforms in the 1980s" (Vol. 1).
2. "Malawi - Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program" (Vol. 1).
3. "Hungary - Integrated Agricultural Export Project" (Vol. 1).
4. O'Mara, Gerald T. "Analyzing the Effects of U.S. Agricultural Policy on Mexican
Agricultural Markets using the MEXAGMKTS Model" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research, and
External Affairs working paper;  No. WPS 447.
5. Koester, Ulrich and Bale, Malcolm D.  "The Common Agricultural Policy:  A Review of its
Operation and Effects on Developing Countries" (Vol. 1).
1991
6. "China - Options for Reform in the Grain Se ctor" (Vol.1).  A World Bank Country Study.
7. "Philippines - Rural Finance Project" (Vol.1).
1992
8. "Bangladesh - Food Policy Review:  Adjust ing to the Green Revolution" (Vol. 1).
9. "Bangladesh - Food Policy Review:  Adjust ing to the Green Revolution" (Vol. 2).
10. "Bangladesh - Selected Issues in External Competitiveness and Economic Efficiency"
(Vol.1).
11. Jaffee, Steven M.  "How Private Enterprise Organized Agricultural Markets in Kenya"
(Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;  No. WPS 823.  Agricultural policies.
1993
12. "Burundi - Private Sector Devel opment in Agriculture" (Vol. 1).
13. Pursell, Garry and Gulati, Ashok  "Liberalizing Indian Agriculture:  An Agenda for Reform"
(Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;  No. WPS 1172.  Trade policy.
14. Salazar P. Brandao and Antonio Martin, Wi ll  "Implications of Agricultural Trade
Liberalization for the Developing Countries" (Vol.1). Policy, Research working papers;
No. PS 1116.  Agricultural policies.
15. Baneth, Jean  "Fortress Europe and Other Myths Concerning Trade" (Vol. 1).  Policy,
Research working papers;  No. WPS 1098.  Trade policy.
16. Gardner, Bruce and Brooks, Karen M.  "How Retail Food Markets Responded to Price
Liberalization in Russia after January 1992" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;  No.
WPS 1140.  Agricultural policies.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 17
17. "Agricultural Sector Review" (Vol.1).
1994
18. Low, Patrick and Yeats, Alexander  "Nontariff measures and Developing Countries:  Has the
Uruguay Round Levelled the Playing Field?" Policy, Research working paper;No.WPS 1353.
19. "Morocco - Second Agricultural Sector Investment Loan (ASL II) (Vol. 1).
20. "Morocco - Second Agricultural Sector Investment Loan" (ASIL II) (Vol. 1).
21. "Ukraine - Food and Agriculture Sector Review" (Vol. 1).
22. "Ukraine - The Agriculture Sector in Trans ition" (Vol. 1).  A World Bank country study.
23. "Mexico - Agricultural Sector Loan Project" (Vol.1).
24. "Iran - Services for Agriculture and Rural Development" (Vol. 1).
1995
25. Francois, J. and Martin, W.  "Multilateral Trade Rules and the Expected Cost of Protection",
CEPR Working Paper No. 1214, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
26. Harrison, G., Rutherford, T. and Tarr, D.  "Q uantifying the Outcome of the Uruguay Round",
Finance and Development 32:38-41, December.
27. Harrold, P.  "The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Africa", World Bank Discussion Paper
No. 311, World Bank.
28. Hoekman, B.  "Trade Laws and Institutions: Good Practices and the World Trade
Organization", World Bank Discus sion paper No. 282, World Bank.
29. Ingco, M.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round:  One Step Forward, One
Step Back?", Policy Research Working Paper No. 1500, World Bank, Washington D.C.
30. Ingco, M.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round:  Matching Expectations
with Reality",  Finance and Development, 32:43-45, September.
31. Majd, N.  "The Uruguay Round and South Asia:  An Overview of the Impact and
Opportunities", Policy Research Working Paper No. 1484, World Bank.
32. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds.)  "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Economies",
Discussion Paper No. 307, World Bank.
33. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds.)  "The Uruguay Round: Widening and Deepening the
World Trading System, Directions in De velopment", World Bank, Washington D.C.
34. Rajapatirana, S.  "Latin America and the Caribbean after the Uruguay Round:  An
Assessment", Latin America Region, World Bank.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 18
35. Research Advisory Staff  "A Step Backward  in Agricultural Trade at the Uruguay Round?",
Development Brief 49, March 1995.
36. Research Advisory Staff  "The Uruguay Round: Winners and Winners", World Bank Policy
Research Bulletin 6(1), January-February 1995.
37. Winters, L.A.  "Wider Markets for Trade: The Uruguay Round", Chapter 2 in Global
Economic Prospects  World Bank, Washington D.C.
38. Yeats, A. and Amjadi, A.  "Non-tariff Barrie rs Facing Africa:  What the Uruguay Round
Accomplished and What Remains to be Done",  South African Economic Journal.
39. Yeats, A.  "Non-tariff Barriers  Facing Africa:  Implications of the Uruguay Round",  South
African Journal of Economics.
40. Yeats, A. and Low, P.  "Non-tariff Measures and Developing Countries:  Has the Uruguay
Round Levelled the Playing Field?", The World Economy.
41. "Ukraine - Seed Development Project" (Vol.1).
42. "Bangladesh - Country Assistance Strategy" (Vol. 1).
43. Csaba, Csaki  "Armenia:  Agricultural Policy Update" (Vol. 1).
44. Schiff, Maurice and Montenegro, Claudio E.  "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in
Developing Countries:  A Survey of Selected Issues" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research and workingpaper;  No. WPS 1485.
45. Ingco, Merlinda D.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round:  One Step
Forward, One Step Back?" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working paper No. WPS 1500.
46. Amjadi, Azita and Yeats, Alexander  "Nontariff Barriers Africa Faces:  What did the Uruguay
Round Accomplish, and What Remains to be Done? (Vol.1).  Policy Research working paper;
No.WPS 1439.
47. Martin, Will and Winters, L. Alan [editors]  "The Uruguay Round and the Developing
Economies" (Vol. 1).  World Bank  discussion papers;  No. WDP 307.
1996
48. Blarel, Pursell, and Valdes, (eds.)  "The WTO and the Uruguay Round Agreement:
Implications for South Asian Agriculture".  Report of FAO/World Bank workshop in
Kathmandu, April 22-24, 1996.
49. Finger, J.M., Ingco, M. and Reincke, U.  "The Uruguay Round:  Statistics on Tariff
Concessions Given and Received", Washington, D.C.:  The World Bank.
50. Finger, J.M.  "Legalized backsliding: safeguard provisions in GATT",  in Martin, W. and
Winters, L.A. (eds.), The Uruguay Round and th e Developing Countries, Cambridge, U.K.:
Cambridge University Press.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 19
51. Goldin, I. and van der Mensbrugghe, D.  "Assessing agricultural tariffication under the
Uruguay Round", in Martin, W. and Winters,  L.A. (eds.), The Uruguay Round and the
Developing Countries, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
52. Hertel, T., Martin, W., Yanagishma, K. and Dimaranan, B.  "Liberalizing Manufactures Trade
in a Changing World Economy", in Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds.), The Uruguay Roundand the Developing Countries, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
53. Hoekman, B.  "Regulatory Regimes and the WTO:  East Asian Perspectives", with Chang-Po
Yang, in van Dijk, P. and Faber, G. (eds.), Challenges to the New World Trade Organization.
Deventer: Kluwer.
54. Ingco, M. and Hathaway, D.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round",
Chapter 1 in Martin, W. and Winters, L. A. (eds.), The Uruguay Round and Developing
Economies, Cambridge, U.K.:  Cambridge University Press.
55. Ingco, M.  "Tariffication in the Uruguay Round:  How Much Liberalization?"  World
Economy, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 425-446.
56. Ingco, M. and Winters, L.A.  "Pakistan and the Uruguay Round: Impact and Opportunities, A
Quantitative Assessment", South Asia Region Discussion Paper No. 163,  The World Bank,
April.
57. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds.)  "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries",
Cambridge, U.K.:  Cambridge University Press.
58. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A.  "The Uruguay Round:  A Milestone for the Developing
Economies",  in Bora, N. and Pangestu, M. (eds.) Priority Issues in Trade and Development:
Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region, Pacific Cooperation Council, Singapore.
59. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A.  "$200 Billion A Year in Gains", DEC Notes, No. 9, May 1996.
60. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A.  "Limited Reductions in Agriculture - But Greater
Transparency and a Framework for the Future", DEC Notes, No. 12, May 1996.
61. McCalla, A. and Valdes, A.  "The Uruguay Round and Agricultural Policies in Developing
Countries and Economies in Transition", Food Policy, Vol. 21, no. 4/5, pp 419-431.
62. Tarr, D., Harrison, G. and Rutherford, T.  "Q uantifying the Uruguay Round", in Martin, W.
and Winters, L.A. (eds.) The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries,  Cambridge
University Press.
63. "Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy: a Multi-Country Analysis - Moldova Technical Report.
64. Valdes, Alberto  "Surveillance of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy in Latin America
During Major Policy Reforms" (Vol.1).  World Bank discussion papers;  No. WDP 349.
65. Ingco, Merlinda D.;  Mitchell, Donald O. and McCalla, Alex F.  "Global Food Supply
Prospects:  A Background Paper Prepared for the World Food Summit, Rome,
November 1996 (Vol. 1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 353.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 20
66. "Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy:  A Multi-Country Analysis - Commodity Trends in
Agriculture:  Production, Gross Margins, and Trade:  The Experiences of Belarus, Moldova,
and Ukraine - 1991-1994" (Vol. 1).
67. "Mexico - First and Second Agricultural Sector Adjustment Projects" (Vol.1).
1997
68. Cordeu, J.L., Valdes, A. and Silva, F. (eds.)  "Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreement
in Latin America:  The Case of Agriculture".  Report of FAO/World Bank workshop in
Santiago, Chile, Nov. 28-30, 1995.
69. Harrison, G., Rutherford, T. and Tarr, D.  "Quantifying the Uruguay Round", Economic
Journal, pp. 1405-1430, September.
70. IATRC  "Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement in Agriculture and Issues for the
Next Round of Agricultural Negotiations ", Commissioned Paper #12, coordinated by
S. Tangermann, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, October.
71. Ingco, M.  "Agricultural Protection", in McDougall, R. (ed.) Global Trade, Assistance and
Protection:  the GTAP 3 Database, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
72. Pursell, G.  "South Asia" in Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement in Agriculture
and Issues for the Next Round of Agricultur al Negotiations, Commissioned Paper #12,
coordinated by Tangermann, S., International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium,
October.
73. Valdes, A.  "Latin America", in Implem entation of the Uruguay Round Agreement in
Agriculture and Issues for the Next Round of Agricultural Negotiations, Commissioned
Paper #12, coordinated by Tangermann, S., International Agricultural Trade Research
Consortium, October.
74. Yeats, A.  "A Quantitative As sessment of the Uruguay Round's Effects and their Implications
for Developing Countries",  in Alfred Tovais and Ulrich Wacker (eds.) The World Trade
System After the Uruguay, The Helmut Kohl Institute, Jerusalem.
75. Valdes, Alberto  "Agricultural Production, Pricing, and Marketing Structures in Ukraine"
(Vol. 1).  EC4NR agriculture policy note;  No. 11.
76. Csaki, Csaba;  Lundell, Mark and Shuker, Iain  "Current Status of Agricultural Reforms in
EC4 Countries" (Vol. 1).  EC4NR ag riculture policy note;  No. 12.
77. DeRosa, Dean A.   "Agricultural Trade and Ru ral Development in the Middle East and North
Africa:  Recent Developments and Prospects" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;
No. WPS 1732.
78. Francis, Paul A.;  Milimo, John T.;  Njobvu, Chosani A. and Tembo, Stephen P.M.
"Listening to Farmers:  Participatory Assessment of Policy Reform in Zambia's Agricultural
Sector" (Vol. 1).  World Bank technical pape r;  No. WTP 375.  Africa region series.
79. Koester, Ulrich E. and Brooks, Karen M.  "Agriculture and German Reunification" (Vol. 1).
World Bank discussion paper;  No. WDP 355.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 21
80. "India - The Indian Oilseed Complex:  Captur ing Market Opportunities" (Vol. 1).  World
Development Sources, WDS 1997-2.
81. "India - The Indian Oilseed Complex:  Captur ing Market Opportunities" (Vol.2).  World
Development Sources, WDS 1997-2.
1998
82. Hoekman, B.  "Developing Countries and the Multilateral Trading System after the Uruguay
Round", in Berry, A., Culpepper, R. and Stewar t, F. (eds.), Global Development Fifty Years
After Bretton Woods, North-South In stitute, Ottawa (forthcoming).
83. Hoekman, B.  "The WTO, the EU and the Arab World:  Trade Policy Priorities and Pitfalls",
in Nemat Shafik (ed.) Perspectives on Middle Eastern and North African Economies.
London:  McMillan (forthcoming).
84. "Uzbekistan - Country Assistance Strategy" (Vol.1).
85. "Albania - Country Assistance Review" (Vol.1).
1999
86. Krueger, Anne O.  "Developing Countries and the Next Round of Multilateral Trade
Negotiations" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2118.
87. Hoekman, Bernard Anderson, Kym  "Developing Country Agriculture and the New Trade
Agenda" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2125.
88. Csaki, Csaba and Nash, John "Regional and International Trade Policy - Lessons for the EU
Accession in the Rural Sector" (Vol.1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 434.
89. Nyberg, Albert and Rozell, Scott  "Accelerating China's rural transformation" (Vol. 1).
90. "Bulgaria - Agriculture Sector Adju stment Loan Project" (Vol. 1).
91. "Pakistan - Agriculture Sector Investment Project" (Vol. 1).
92. Townsend, Robert F.   "Agricultural Incentives in Sub-Saharan Africa:  Policy Challenges"
(Vol. 1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 444.
93. Kodderitzsch, Severin   "Reforms in Albania Agriculture:  Assessing a Sector in Transition"
(Vol. 1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 431.  Europe and Central Asia
environmentally and socially sustainable rural development series.
94. Michalopoulos, Constantine   "Developing C ountry Goals and Strategies for the Millennium
Round" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2147.
95.   "Côte d'Ivoire - Agricultural Sector Adjustment Credit" (Vol.1).G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 22
(ii) Work in progress
A. Project on  monitoring and im plementation of the Uruguay Round
The implementation of the commitments made under the Uruguay Round will determine both
the long-run economic impact of the Round, and the base from which future trade
liberalization will be undertaken. This project includes a number of studies spanning the
enormous range of issues addressed under the Uruguay Round. It includes some studies that
are purely research, and more applied studies undertaken in close co-operation with Bank
Operational Staff in order to obtain the best assessment of the country-specific implications of
the Round.
A key element of this project is the ongoing work on the implementation of the Uruguay
Round Agreement on Agriculture. This study draws on the notifications to the WTO made by
each member to assess the extent and manner in which key trade policy reforms in each
country have been implemented. The analyses  addresses two questions: (i) how countries
have been implementing their commitments  in market access under the Uruguay Round
Agreement in Agriculture (URA), and (ii) based on actual implementation, what has actually
happened in agricultural trade liberalization since 1995?  During 1998-99, the focus of
attention will turn from the context created by the Uruguay Round to the issues and
opportunities for liberalization in the negotiations scheduled to begin by 2000.
Project Completion Date:  June 1999
Studies already completed within this project:
1996
96. Bach, C., Martin, W. and Stevens, J.  "China  and the WTO: Tariff Offers, Exemptions and
Welfare Implications", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 132(3):409-31.
97. Hoekman, B. and Subramanian, A.  "Egypt and the Uruguay Round", World Bank Policy
Research Working Paper No 1597, Washington D.C.
98. Ingco, M. and Hathaway, D.  "Implementation of the Uruguay Round Commitments on
Agriculture: Issues and Practice".  Paper presented at the Fourth World Bank Conference on
Environmentally Sustainable Developm ent, September 25-27, Washington D.C.
1998
99. Ingco, M. and F. Ng.  "Distortionary Effects of State Trading in Agricultural Trade: Issues for
the Next Round of Negotiations", Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank, Washington
D.C. (forthcoming).
100. Ingco, M.  "Market Access in Agricultural Trad e: Issues for the Next Round of Negotiations",
Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank, Washington D.C. (forthcoming).
101. Ingco, M.  "Trade Restrictiveness of Post-Uruguay Round Agricultural Policies", Policy
Research Working Paper, World Bank, Washington D.C. (forthcoming).G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 23
B. Project:  agricultural trade liberalization and food security
The changes that are under way in the international trade and policy environment will have
far-ranging consequences for the food and agriculture sector and for food security. Domestic
policy responses to these changes will influence food security in both the short and the longterm. These policy changes are occurring in a dynamic context of changing comparative
advantage in agricultural production arising from population and income growth and changes
in technology and resource constraints. Countries that have undertaken policy reforms and
adjustment in the right direction have been much better positioned to cope with short-term
shocks and take advantage of opportunities from more open markets than countries that have
not done so. This study evaluates the extent of trade and market liberalization carried out by
industrial and developing countries during the post-Uruguay Round regime. It examinesexisting trade barriers and domestic protection, quantifies the pre- and post-Uruguay Round
applied rates of protection, and projects the effect of liberalization on production,
consumption, and price levels through 2005. The study also analyzes the effect of the
projected increases in world prices on low-income food-deficit countries. And it assesses the
implications of liberalization for the food sector and food security by looking at changes interms of trade, domestic output, food consumption, and incomes.
A key focus of attention during 1997 was the consequences of rapid growth in the Pacific
Basin, and particularly in China, on world food demand and prices. This question was
analyzed using the GTAP global general equilibrium model to provide a more comprehensiveassessment than has been possible with the partial equilibrium analyses that have been used in
the past.
Project Completion date: June 1999.
Studies already completed within this project:
1996
102. Ingco, M., Mitchell, D. and McCalla, A.  "Global Food Supply Prospects, A Background
paper presented at the World Food Summit in Rome", Technical Paper No. 353. World Bank,Washington, D.C. 20433.
103. Ingco, M.  "India's Domestic and External Trade Policy Environment: Implications for
Market Stabilization Policies and Strategies", Annex 6 in The Indian Oilseeds Complex:
Capturing Market Opportunities, Report N o. 15677-IN, South Asia Country Department II,
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
1997
104. Anderson, K., Dimaranan, B., Hertel, T. and Mar tin, W.  "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade
in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective", The Australian Journal of Agricultural and
Resource Economics, 41:1, pp. 19-44.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 24
(iii) Planned research projects
A. The next multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture and the developing countries
Agriculture would be one of the major sector s where future trade negotiations would have
major implications for developing countries.  The proposed research program would build onthe work undertaken for the evaluation of the Uruguay Round outcome on agriculture and the
recent analysis of actual implementation since 1995.  The broad objectives of the proposed
research are as follows:  (1) to assist developing countries to prepare for the next negotiations
in agriculture;  (2) to identify and evaluate approaches for developing countries to participate
and benefit more fully than in the past negotiations;  and (3) based on the implementation of
commitments made under the Uruguay Round, to quantitatively evaluate desirable policy
options for further liberalization.  Policy options would first be evaluated qualitatively andthen analyzed quantitatively using detailed (tariff line level) estimates of applied protection
and general equilibrium models.  Issues on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures will also be
evaluated.
Estimated Completion Date:  December 1999.
B. The millennium round and the developing countries
This research would cover Agriculture, Services, Manufactures, Trade and Investment, Trade
and Competition, Government Procurement, Reforms to WTO rules and procedures, Anti-
dumping and Specific sub-sectoral negotiations (e.g Information Technology Agreement).
There will be a research preparation phase in which two exploratory studies would be
prepared, namely:  (1) The state of preparatio n for the negotiations;  and (2) Approaches to
liberalization.  The exploratory studies will define initial positions on key issues and providequalitative analyses of different policy approaches that might be used to ensure
comprehensive and constructive participation by developing countries in the negotiations.
Estimated Completion Date:  December 1999.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 25
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO)
(i) Completed studies
1. "The results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.  Market Access for
Goods and Services: Overview of the Results", GATT Secretariat, November 1994.
2. "Summary of the Results of the Uruguay Round in the Dairy Sector", GATT Secretariat,
November 1994.
3. "Summary of the Results of the Uruguay Round in the Meat Sector", WTO Secretariat,
February 1995.
(ii) Work in progress
4. "Economic assessments of the Uruguay Round", in Guide to the Uruguay Round Agreements,
WTO Secretariat, Geneva:  WTO Publications/Kluwer Law International (forthcoming).
(iii) Working papers
The working papers listed below have been produced in the context of research in progress.
These papers are not official Secretariat papers, nor meant to represent the position oropinions of the WTO or its Members.  Responsibility for the content, including any errors,
rests exclusively with the authors.  Copies of papers can be requested from the Economic
Research and Analysis Division.
5. Francois, J. and McDonald, B. (1996) "The multilateral trade agenda: Uruguay Round
implementation and beyond", No. ERAD-96-012.
6. Francois, J. and Martin, W. (1996) "Multilateral Trade Rules and the Expected Cost of
Protection", No. ERAD-96-010.
7. Francois, J., McDonald, B. and Nordström, H. (1996) "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round
Assessments", No. ERAD-96-003.
8. Laird, S. (1997) "WTO Rules and Good Practice on Export Policy", No: TPRD-97-001.
9. Auboin, M. and Laird, S. (1998) "EU Import Measures and the Developing Countries",
No. TPRD-98-001.
(iv) Other studies by WTO staff
10. Degbelo, J. and Dembinski, P.H. (1994) "Effects de l'Uruguay Round sur les Pays en
Developpement: Une Analyse des Evaluations R éalisées à ce Jour", Eco'Diagnostic, Genève.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 26
ATTACHMENT 2
Executive Summaries and/or Conclusions
of Studies on the Implementation and Impact of the
Agreement on Agriculture on Developing Countries
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION3
(i) Completed studies
1993
"Price Stabilization Mechanisms for Imported Agricultural Products in Latin America and the
Caribbean". Proceedings and papers submitted to FAO/World Bank Round Table held inSantiago, Chile, Oct. 1993.  (ES)
This document presents the proceeding and papers of the joint FAO/World Bank Round Table
on Agricultural Price Stabilization Policies in Latin America which took place in Santiago,
Chile, from 18 to 20 October 1993.  Several background papers were prepared by FAO andThe World Bank in relation with case studies for Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia,
El Salvador, Ecuador and Peru.  In addition, sh ort papers were presented on price distortions
in world food markets, domestic surveillance for transparency in agricultural trade and price
policy, contingency protection measures for agriculture, developing a regulatory market
environment for competitive commodity markets.   Most of these papers addressed the main
issue of how to deal with price instability in the framework of open market-oriented
economies in which governments no longer had powerful trade instruments to counteract that
instability.  This situation has been made worse by the fall in the real exchange rate in many
countries of the Region coupled with an intensification of the long-term decline of
international agricultural prices.  In the economic policy reforms being implemented in mostcountries of the Region, trade reform emerged as the dominant issue in the formulation of the
new Latin American development strategy during the early 1990s.  However, price and trade
policy reforms for agricultural products have been particularly complex and controversial at
this initial stage of the reform process since farmers, specially those in the traditional sector,
were adversely affected in many countries of the Region.  The stabilization of farm pricesunder a more open trade regime on import-competing products was considered a critical
emerging policy by the organisers of the Round Table, and one that required further analysis
and technical debate.
"Policy Change and Agricultural Trade in Africa South of the Sahara".  Proceedings and
papers submitted to FAO/ECOWAS Expert Co nsultation held in Akasomba, Ghana, 1993.
(EF)
This document presents the proceedings and papers of an Expert Consultation on
International Policy Change and Agricultural Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa organised by FAO
on behalf of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).  The objective of
the Expert Consultation was to provide an opportunity for senior policy advisers from
                                                     
3 The language in which the study concerned is available is indicated in brackets (E - English, F -
French, S - Spanish).G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 27
countries in the ECOWAS region to review and discuss the changes taking place in the world
agricultural trading environment; the opportunities which may arise for expanding trade; and
alternative policies that may be needed.  It drew on the experience of countries in the region,
facilitated a sharing of such experience and promoted awareness of the possibilities and
problems likely to be faced by policy makers over the 1990s.
1994
"The Impact of a Changing International Trad e Environment on Agricultural Trade in the
Near East Region".  Proceedings and papers subm itted to Expert Consultation held in Nicosia,
Cyprus, December 1994.  (E)
This document contains the proceedings, recommendations and background documents of a
regional Expert Consultation organised by FAO in co-operation with the Ministry of
Commerce and Industry, Cyprus.  The objective of the Consultation was to discuss the impact
of major changes in the international trade environment on agricultural trade in the Near East
region, including effects on agricultural production, opportunities for expanding agriculturaltrade and policy changes needed to realise objectives under this changing environment.  A
major paper of the volume analyses the new EU regime under the UR on fruits and vegetables
and the implications for market access of the countries of the region.  Other major changes
discussed included the growing significance of regionalism and regional trade arrangements,
the general trend towards deregulation and greater liberalization, and the emerging issues inthe trade agenda particularly on environment and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations.
"Implications for the Uruguay Round for European Union Trade with Third Countries with
Specific Reference to Fresh Fruits and Vegetabl e Trade with the Near East  Region", by A.
Swinbank, University of Reading, and C. Ritson, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne,
RNEA/8O7/ EC/3, December 1994.  (E)
This document, prepared for the FAO Expert Consultation on the impact of a changing
international trade environment on agricultural trade in the Near East region, examines the
implications of the EU policy regime for fresh nuts, fruits and vegetables under the UR.  The
paper describes the new "entry price" system, highlights the main differences with theexisting "reference price" system, comments on the extent to which protection might be
reduced and examines also the implications of the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary
Measures (SPS).
"The Uruguay Round and Global Grain Trade", Cereal Policies Review, 1993-94, July 1994.
(EFS)
The Trade Negotiations Committee of the GATT reached a consensus in December 1993 on a
set of agreements and decisions included in the Final Act.  The Ac t together with the
schedules of reduction commitments was formally signed at the ministerial meeting at
Marrakesh in April 1994.  This document first describes the main features of the Final Act as
they apply to cereals and then goes on to a preliminary assessment of the schedules submitted
by a selected number of major trading countries.  The Final Act includes agreements and
decisions on a wide variety of subjects, several of which are of great significance to the worldeconomy, including the economies of the developing countries.  The document reviews the
main area of greatest direct concern to the cereals sector such as the Agreement on
Agriculture, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures andG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 28
the Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform
Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries.
"The Uruguay Round Final Act and Its Implications for the World Livestock and Meat
Economy". Prepared for the 15th Session of the IGG on Meat, CCP:ME/94/4, Oct. 1994.  (EFS)
The Intergovernmental Group on Meat has frequently drawn attention to serious distortions in
the international meat market, most recently at its 14th Session.  This document reviews some
persistent problems:  domestic meat prices in some countries being notably above those on
the international market;  protection of domestic markets that has stimulated production and
depressed consumption, creating surpluses only to be sold with subsidies;  relatively largescale subsidisation of exports of meat, particularly of beef;  animal health and sanitary control
regulations and procedures that reduced exporters' access to import markets;  existence of
measures that distort trade and seem to violate undertakings made in international agreements,
despite complaints by trading partners through the GATT and findings that there has been a
nullification or impairment of benefits accruing to other contracting parties to the GATT.  TheUruguay Round addresses these deficiencies and other distortions.  This document was
prepared to assist the Group in analysing the implications of these results for international
trade in meat as requested by the last session of the Committee on Commodity Problems.
"The Impact of the Uruguay Round and other Measures Affecting Wine Trade".  Prepared for
the 6th Session of the IGG on Wine and Vi ne Products, CCP:WI/94/8, Sept. 1994.  (EFS)
At its Fifth Session in 1992, the Intergovernmental Group on Wine and Vine Products
considered international trade policy measures, in particular tariffs and non-tariff measures,affecting wine trade.  The Group expressed its general commitment to free and transparent
international trade on an equitable basis for wine products and its opposition to arbitrary trade
barriers.  It further expressed the hope that a general improvement in international trade
mechanisms would result from the negotiations  then under way in GATT.  This document
outlines certain major developments affecting trade which have occurred since the Group's
last session:  changes in the international regime affecting trade in agricultural commodities,
specially wine, resulting from the Uruguay Round;  modifications in national importprocedures which will derive from the projected privatisation of some state monopolies;
environmental legislation and industry initiatives;  and regional trade agreements.
1995
"A Review of Commitments in the Cereal Sector Under the Uruguay Round Agreement",
Cereal Policies Review, 1994-95, Aug. 1995.  (EFS)
The previous issue of this Review reported on the main provisions of the Agreement on
Agriculture of the Final Act of the Uruguay Round (UR) and presented a brief overview of
specific commitments on cereals made by a selected sample of countries.  This chapter
contains a more detailed account of commitments on cereals, namely wheat, rice and coarse
grains.  The review is based on an analysis of a selected sample of country Schedules,
including most of the important cereal trading countries.  China, although not as yet a member
of the WTO, submitted a Schedule of commitments and is covered in this analysis, in view ofChina's importance in the global cereal economy.  The review is organised in three sections,
each covering the three main areas where commitments were made, namely domestic support,
market access and export competition.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 29
"GATT's Effect on Rice: Plus ça va et plus ça  change?", by Chan Ling Yap in CERES, No. 154,
Vol. 27, No. 4, July-August 1995.  (EFS)
This short article deals with the implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement on
Agriculture on the world rice economy.  Many expect the accord to bring a new era of freetrade through the opening of protected markets and reduction of export subsidies.  According
to the Author, those expectations may not be fully realistic.  Indeed, the question remains
whether the Agreement really offers a panacea to the problems ahead in the trade of essential
food commodities.  Trade in rice is one of the most significant examples of the fact that,
despite the rhetoric surrounding the Uruguay Round, major food exporting countries continue
to use trade mechanisms to promote exports and limit imports.
"The Uruguay Round Final Act and its Implications for the World Oilseeds Economy".
Prepared for the 27th Session of the IGG on Oilseeds, Oils and Fats, CCP:OF/95/2, May 1995.
(EFS)
The Committee on Commodity Problems concluded at its 59th session in July 1993 that there
was "need for further analysis of issues concerning multilateral trade negotiations and the
outcome of the Uruguay Round (UR) using the Intergovernmental Groups".  Following this
conclusion, the document reviews the commitments entered into by governments under the
UR and their possible impact, with emphasis on the oilseeds, oils and oilmeals sector.  Thetime horizon is the year 2000, by when the major part of the Agreement will have been
implemented.  The analysis is provisional as the Agreement was still waiting ratification by
the national authorities of a number of countries at the time of writing the report.
"Impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement on the World Tea Economy".  Prepared for the
11th Session of the IGG on Tea, CCP:TE/95/3, April 1995.  (EFS)
At its Tenth Session, the intergovernmental Group on Tea underlined the importance of
continued monitoring of longer-term prospects in the world tea economy, and the need to
periodically update the projections studies prepared under its auspices to assess the impact of
changes in trade policies and of major demand and supply developments.  Accordingly, thispaper presents an analysis of the impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement on the world tea
economy.  This analysis extends the previous projections to 2005 consonant with the
timetable for implementation of the agreement, and simulates the quantitative effects of tariff
reductions and income growth on world tea production, consumption and trade.
"Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture", FAO, Rome 1995, 102 pp.  (EFS)
An assessment of the impact of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations on
agricultural commodity markets to the year 2000 is presented.  The approach adopted was torerun previous FAO agricultural commodity proj ections to take into account the changes in
tariffs, export subsidies, import access and incomes likely to take place by the year 2000.
After a brief review of the Agreement on Agriculture, the focus is on the impact on selected
agricultural commodity markets (wheat, rice, coarse grains, oils and fats and oilmeals, sugar,
meat, milk and milk products, coffee, cocoa, tea, bananas, and hides and skins).  The impactis then analyzed by region, and a number of special issues are discussed.  Some general
conclusions are drawn.  An annex giving an out line of the methodology used and some basic
assumptions made in the study is included.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 30
"The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture:  Implications for Food Security in the Asia
and Pacific Region", in Benefits and Challeng es Facing Asia-Pacific Agricultural Trading
Countries in the Post-Uruguay Round Period, ESCAP.  (E)
From the beginning of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations, and even much
earlier than that, there have been divergent views on the impact of trade liberalization on
agriculture and food security, in particular.  These assessments were based on hypothesised
scenarios of trade liberalization and it was only since April 1994, when the individual country
concessions became available, that more realistic assessments could be made.  Furthermore, it
is not only the quantifiable effects that are of relevance to agriculture and food security but,
perhaps more importantly, the non-quantifiable effects relating to the new environment
affecting both trade and domestic agricultural and food security policy.  This paper examinesthese two dimensions of the impact of the Ur uguay Round. i.e. the quantifiable effects which
span the short- to medium-term horizon of the implementation of the specific country
commitments. and the longer term effects on policy, which go well beyond this horizon.
Specifically, section B reviews briefly the provisions of the Agreement on Agriculture.
Section C highlights the short- to medium-t erm impact of the Agreement on world food
security focusing in particular on the Asian and Pacific region.  The implications of the
Agreement on food security policy are discussed in Section D, while the last section includes
some policy recommendations for the short and long term.
1996
"Review of Cereal Price Situation in Selected Developing Countries in 1995-96 and Policy
Measures to Offset the Price Rise",  Commodities and Trade Division, Rome, 1996, ESCP No. 1.
(E)
This paper reviews developments in consumer prices of cereals in over 30 developing
countries during 1995-96 as well as policy responses by these countries to the rise in
international prices of cereals in this period.  During 1995/96 (March-May 1996 over July-
September 1995), world wheat price rose 27 per cent and maize by 47 per cent while rice
price rose in the second half of 1995 by 30 per cent.  This study examines the extent that the
price rises were passed on to consumers in this group of developing countries.
"Agricultural Price Instability: Report of a Meeting of Experts", Commodities and Trade
Division, Rome, 10-11 June 1996, ESCP/No. 2, 26 pp.  (E)
This Report summarizes the main conclusions of  an informal meeting of experts, organized
by FAO in Rome, 10-11 June 1996.  The meeting considered two issues:  first, whether
agricultural price instability is changing; and second, instruments to deal with price instability
and its consequences.  Overall, the meeting agreed that compared to the situation in the past,
world commodity markets in the future were likely to be characterised by lower levels of
overall stocks, although, at the same time, they should be less prone to instability due to fasterand broad-based adjustments to production/demand shocks.  However, the path to the new
market environment was seen as uncertain and it was generally felt that price instability
would be greater in this transitional period than after the system had fully adjusted.  As
regards instruments to deal with price instability, the meeting expressed a general preference
for national level, non-distortionary instruments that allowed the possibility of "living-with"
instability, complemented by measures that would reduce ("fight") instability at the
international level.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 31
"An overview of Assessments of the Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agricultural Prices and
Incomes",  by R. Sharma, P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5,
Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
This paper presents a synthesis of results from various models that have assessed the impact
of the Uruguay Round on global agriculture.  The results, on the whole, show that the
Uruguay Round is not expected to cause large price and income effects at the global level.
The effects are likely to be more significant for individual regions and countries.  The paper
identifies a number of factors, explaining the differences in the impact assessed with various
models.  These include partial or non-incorporation of the specific reduction commitments
under the Uruguay Round, different practices fo llowed in modelling tariff reductions,
differences in transmission elasticities, use of different base periods to apply Uruguay Roundreduction commitments, model structure (i.e. partial versus general equilibrium), different
aggregation of countries and commodities, and differences in the demand, supply and
transmission elasticities.
"The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture: Food Security Implications for Developing
Countries", by J. Greenfield, M. de Nigris and P. Konandreas in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5,
Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
The paper presents FAO's assessment of the Uruguay Round on world agricultural markets
and the food security implications of such effects for developing countries.  The analysis is
based largely on FAO's World Food Model, whic h is used to compare the outcome for the
year 2000 with and without the implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on
Agriculture.  Although at the global level ma rket effects for most agricultural commodities
turn out to be small, the effects are relatively more important for the low-income food-deficitdeveloping countries, especially with regard to their food import bills.  The paper concludes,
however, that the food security prospects of developing countries are largely determined by
underlying factors which the Uruguay Round would not alter to any substantial degree.
"Uruguay Round Commitments on Domestic Support: their Implications for Developing
Countries",  by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5,Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
This paper examines the basic provisions of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture on
domestic support and their relative importance, especially from the perspective of developing
countries.  It gives some indication of the extent to which difficulties may arise fromdifferences in interpretation and implementation of certain provisions, which may result in
contentious issues in the future.  Further, the paper focuses on the implications of the
commitments made for food and agricultural policy in developing countries. In particular, it
discusses in some detail the compatibility of the new disciplines with agricultural and food
policies normally pursued by developing countries.  Although, by and large, developingcountries have provided small amounts of direct price support to agriculture in the past, the
paper concludes that, in general, the Agreement on Agriculture per se is not likely to present
serious constraints to them in pursuing their agricultural and food policies on production,
consumption and domestic market stabilization. In most cases constraints are likely to come
from budgetary austerity and commitments that countries have made under StructuralAdjustment Programmes.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 32
"Implications of the Uruguay Round on the World Rice Economy",  by Chan Ling Yap, Food
Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996.  (E)
This paper examines the implications of the Agreement on Agriculture for the rice economy,
and reviews its impact on world rice production, trade, consumption and international prices.
The Agreement is potentially beneficial for the international rice market, and especially for
developing countries.  Considerable uncertainties, however, exist as to whether the full
benefits, will be realised, as they hinge mainly on the implementation of market access
provisions in a limited number of countries.  Tariffication as it finally evolved under the
Agreement  would not result in any significant expansion in trade, and international trade in
rice would remain distorted up to the year 2000 as the level of export subsidies in some
countries could well remain above that in 1986-90. In assessing the impact of the Agreement,the paper assumes that there will be full compliance with the commitments made. Some
alternative scenarios are also examined.
"Potential Erosion of Trade Preferences in Agricultural Products", by F. Yamazaki, Food
Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996.   (E)
This paper assesses the potential impact of the Uruguay Round on agricultural trade
preferences.  The potential value of such preferences given by the European Union, Japan and
the United States is estimated at US$ 1.9 billion in 1992, one-third going to Africa, 10 percent to Latin America and the Caribbean, and the rest  mainly to developing countries of the
Far East and Oceania.  After the Uruguay Round reduction in Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN)
rates, the potential value of preferences is estimated to fall by around US$ 0.7 billion, of
which Africa.  Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Far East account for 26 per cent,
39 per cent, and 28 per cent, respectively.  On a commodity basis, the biggest losses areestimated for fruit and nuts, coffee and tea.
"Impact of the Uruguay Round on the World Hides and Skins Economy".  Prepared for the 5th
Session of the Sub-Group on Hides and Skins, CCP:ME/96/5, May 1996.  (EFS)
This paper examines the impact of the Uruguay Round on projected global production of and
demand for hides and skins.  Only a small fraction of the total projected increase in global
output in the period to 2000 is attributable to the UR, although for some countries it is
expected to have a more significant impact.  According to the paper, the UR is expected to
result in further increases in the fast growing processing and manufacturing activity,
especially in the developing countries, and this will be reflected in significant increases in thevalue of international trade of bovine hides and skins, leather and leather products by the year
2000.
"Impact of the Uruguay Round on Multilateral Trade Negotiations:  Effects on the World
Citrus Market to 2000".  Prepared for the 11th Session of the IGG on Citrus Fruit,CCP:CI/96/4, April 1996. (EFS)
This document represents an initial effort to quantify the effects of the implementation of the
Uruguay Round on the world citrus market in the medium term until the year 2000.  The
analysis focuses mainly on the effects of tariff reductions.  It shows that import duties appliedto citrus fruit and citrus products vary significantly from country to country, and within
country from one citrus variety to the other and one product form to the next.  Tariff levels for
citrus products generally increase with the degree of added value (processing), while for fresh
citrus, in some producing countries, the levels also vary according to the time of the year,G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 33
with higher tariffs usually in place during the period when local production is present in the
market. In addition, it shows that reductions in import duties following the UR will also vary
extensively.  The document includes the most recent projections to the year 2000 for citrus
fruit and products  modified with respect to a baseline scenario to take into account the UR
tariff concessions.  It concludes that the UR is unlikely to have a sizeable effect on the worldcitrus economy, at least up to the year 2000.
"Changing Trade Environment for Oilseeds and Products in the Asia and Pacific Region".
Report of Expert Consultation held in Bangkok, Thailand, January 1996, based on a
background paper by M. Pasquali.  (E)
This paper provides background information for the debates which took place at the FAO
Expert Consultation on the Changing Trade Environment for Oilseeds and Products in the
Asia and Pacific Region (9-12 January 1995, Bangkok, Thailand).  The projected UR impact
of production, trade and consumption of oils and oilmeals is analyzed is some detail.  In the
case of fats and oils, the additional quantity which will be produced in the year 2000 as aresult of the UR will be concentrated in exporting countries and enter world trade.  In the case
of oilmeals, additional production for export is projected for Latin America and, to a lesser
extent in the Far East, the two regions also being projected to have increased demand and
import requirements reflecting growth in the livestock sector.
"Impact of Regional Agreements in Latin Am erica on Rice Trade". Prepared for the 38th
Session of the IGG on Rice, CCP:RI/96/inf3, 1996.  (EFS)
A number of regional trade agreements exist in Latin America, such as the Latin American
Integration Association (LAIA/ALADI), the Central American Common Market (CACM),
the Andean Pact, the Group of Three, the Caribbean Community and Common Market
(CARICOM), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  Among the agreements, those most relevant to trade in rice
are LAIA, MERCOSUR, NAFTA and the CARI COM.  The main objective of this
symposium was to focus on MERCOSUR and NAF TA, the two most recent agreements, and
to review their impact on rice production and trade within the region and on the region's ricetrade with the rest of the world.  Participants were encouraged to exchange views and
experiences of trading within these arrangements and suggestions for the future.
1997
"Policy options for developing countries to support food security in the post-Uruguay Round
period", by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield.  Paper presented to the Seminar on Markets and
Institutions for Food Security, Brussels, 10-12 December 1997.  (E)
This paper analyses policy options available to developing countries to support food
production and safeguard against market instability in a way which is consistent with their
commitments under the Uruguay Round Agreemen t on Agriculture (AoA).  It focuses
especially on policies having a bearing on food security, including during the transitional
period leading to a more liberalized trading en vironment.  The discussion highlights the broad
options available in three main areas: production policies, consumption policies andstabilisation policies.  It concludes with some suggestions on how the developed countries can
be supportive to the food security efforts of developing countries in the context of the new
trade policy environment.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 34
"L'accord sur l'agriculture de l'OMC: Conséquences pour le Sénégal", by J. Lindland and
P. Konandreas, December 1997, 63 pp. plus Annexes.  (F)
This study was prepared by the FAO Commodities and Trade Division within the framework
of a Technical Co-operation Programme with the Government of Senegal (TCP/SEN/6713).
It attempts to analyse the impact of the Agreement on Agriculture on the agriculture of
Senegal with particular reference to the new export opportunities opened by the UR reduction
commitments in domestic support and export subsidies of its current and potential trade
partners.  The study also examines the possible negative effects for Senegal due to the
globalization of  markets as well as the options available to the country for ensuring food
security and price stability to its consumers.  The UR concessions appear to have very little
impact for Senegal  in relation to its own structural adjustment programme and otherimportant changes at the global level.
"The Food Situation in the Least Developed and Net Food Importing Developing Countries".
Paper presented to the WTO Committee on Agriculture, November 20-21, 1997.  (E)
This paper provides an overview of the food si tuation in the countries which are eligible for
assistance under the Marrakesh Ministerial Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible
Negative Effects of the Reform Process on the Least Developed (LDCs) and Net Food-
Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs).  First, it presents details on the socio-economic
profile of  these countries.  It then analyses the performance of their domestic food production
since 1980, their dependence on food imports and how they have managed to secure supplies
from the world market to meet their food needs, in particular during the 1995/96 price spike.
Finally, it analyses the main variables that affect  their ability to import food.  It concludes that
all the relevant statistics differentiate clearly the LDCs and the NFIDCs from the rest of thedeveloping countries as regards food availability and capacity to import.
"The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture in Southern Africa:  Implications and
Policy Responses", Proceedings of an FAO/SADC Workshop held in Harare 21-23 January
1997,  223 pp., Rome, December 1997.  (E)
The volume contains the papers submitted to the regional workshop on "The Uruguay Round
Agreements: implications for agriculture in  the SADC Region", organised by the FAO
Commodities and Trade Division in co-operation with the Southern African Development
Community (SADC).  Since the conclusi on of the Uruguay Round (UR) the FAO
Commodities and Trade Division has organised a number of regional workshops related toUR impact and follow-up.  The objective of th is Workshop was to analyse the changes in the
multilateral trading environment resulting from the UR and their impact on food security,
agricultural production and trade in the SADC Region. In addition, policies needed to
mitigate possible negative effects of, and take advantage of market opportunities arising from
the UR were discussed.
"Food Aid and the Implementation of the Marrakesh Decision".  Paper presented to the Food
Aid Committee, June 1997.  (E)
Food aid flows have been affected substantially by recent policy changes in the donor
countries.  These include changes in the development assistance budgets of major donors and
structural changes in the supply of the commodities provided as food aid.  At the same time,
requirements for food aid continue to be large, both for balance of payments support and toG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 35
meet the growing emergency needs and supplementary feeding programmes.  In addition,
food aid has been called to play a role in the implementation of the Marrakesh Ministerial
Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme
on Least Developed and net Food-Importing Developing Countries.  These old and new
demands on food aid resources necessitate some innovative approaches on how variousinstruments already available or to be developed could better respond to needs.  A process
towards that goal has been initiated by the Members of the Food Aid Committee, in
conjunction with the renegotiation of the 1995 Food Aid Convention (FAC) which will expire
in June 1998.  This paper analyses recent trends in food aid flows and puts forward proposals
for broadening the donor and commodity base of food aid and for increasing its flexibility to
respond to variable needs, including those under the Ministerial Decision.
"The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Tariff Escalation in Agricultural Products", by
J. Lindland, April 1997, 84 pp.  (E, summary in FS)
The study  analyses the impact of the UR on tariff escalation in the agricultural sector.  Tariff
escalation (i.e. higher tariffs on processed agricultural products than on their input
commodities) has been one of the obstacles for developing countries in their efforts to
establish processing industries for exports.  The novelty of the study, compared to other
studies, is that changes in tariff escalation are analyzed on the basis of actual input/output
processing relationships.  In addition, the study takes into account both specific and advalorem tariffs that may be applied on the input and output products.  The results of the study
show that tariff escalation has been reduced as  a result of the UR, creating some opportunities
for developing countries to diversify their exports into higher value processed commodities.
The study concludes, however, that high levels of escalation will still remain after the
implementation of the UR tariff concessions.
"Trade Aspects of a Central-American Policy on Basic Grains", ESCP Working Paper,
April 1997.
This paper discusses issues of the Central American Policy on Basic Grains related to
harmonisation of trade policies and indicates areas that might be given special emphasisduring the preparation of this policy.  All countries of the Central American region (Belize,
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama), except of Belize and
Panama, are members of the Central Amer ican Common Market (CACM).  Among the
CACM Members, intra-regional trade in basic grains  is currently not subject to any tariffs, but
non-tariff trade barriers have occasionally been applied.  Rules of origin are required as extra-regional trade is not subject to a common external tariff.  The paper gives background
information about the long-term perspectives of utilisation, production and trade of cereals
with special emphasis on Central America.  The main exporters on the world market and the
intra-regional Central American trade of basic grains are also briefly dealt with, and issues
relating to price levels and variability are examined.  The paper then outlines the UruguayRound (UR) commitments on market access, domestic support and export subsidies and
analyses the Schedules of the Central American countries.  The harmonisation of agricultural
trade policies (covering market access, domestic support, export subsidies and concessional
imports) is examined in light of the UR provisions, including different options for regional
integration and their UR compatibility.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 36
"Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreement in Latin America: the Case of Agriculture",
FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Santiago, Chile, 28-30 November 1995, Feb. 1997, 204 pp.
(ES)
The volume contains the papers submitted to a regional workshop jointly organised by FAO
and the World Bank with the purpose of  analysing and assessing the results of the Uruguay
Round and its impact on agricultural policies in Latin American countries.  Several questions
of interpretation of the Agreement on Agriculture are covered, and the extent of improved
market access opportunities resulting from the elimination of non-tariff measures and the
tariffication process.  A valuable outcome of the workshop was also a discussion of Regional
Trade Agreements in the Latin American region and how they relate to the UR agreement and
to Article XXIV of the GATT.
1998
"Prospects for Non-Traditional Agricultural Commodities:  a Case Study of the EU, US and
Japan", forthcoming 1998.  (E)
This study reports on some preliminary results of an on-going study to assess the implications
of the Uruguay Round for selected non traditional agricultural commodities.  Many of these
commodities, particularly but not exclusively in the horticultural area, are relatively fast
growing in the world market and are becoming increasingly important for some developingcountries.  The study analyses the reasons for the recent rapid import growth of non-
traditional commodities in the industrialised countries and the opportunities for an even
greater growth in exports of non-traditional commodities by developing countries created by
the gradual reduction of tariffs under the Uruguay Round in the major import markets namely
the EU, US, and Japan which together account for over 60 per cent of the value of world tradein these commodities.
"Uruguay Round Agreement: Implications for Agriculture in the South Asian Region".
Proceedings and papers of an FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal, 22-
24 April 1996, (forthcoming 1998).  (E)
This volume brings together the main papers presented at the workshop jointly organised by
FAO and the World Bank.  The volume has four main sections.  Section I comprises overview
papers covering global policy issues, the implications for world agricultural commodity
markets, and specific issues of  an agricultural policy nature for the countries of the South
Asia region arising from the Uruguay Round (UR) .  Section II reviews the key components of
the Agreement on Agriculture, notably those on domestic support, export subsidy and market
access commitments.  Section II presents detailed papers on the market implications of the
UR for selected commodities of importance to South Asia.  Finally, in Section IV case studies
are presented, covering Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
"The implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture for Developing Countries:
A Training Manual", Training Material for Agricultural Planning , No. 41, FAO, Rome 1998.
(EFS)
The manual is prepared as part of a series of training materials for use in FAO programmes of
capacity building in policy formulation and analysis.  It aims to familiarise those working at a
policy level in developing countries with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and its
likely impact on developing countries.  The manual is divided into two parts.  Part I discussesG/AG/NG/S/16
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the content of the AoA, providing detail on the background to GATT and the negotiations
leading to the conclusion of the AoA.  Part II investigates the policy implications stemming
from the Agreement with respect to the new trading opportunities and the implications of
changes in agricultural commodity markets;  the domestic policy making environment which
will experience the dual influences of the Agreement and structural adjustment; food security;and regional trading opportunities.
"Medium-term Outlook for Agricultural Commodities," by J. Greenfield. Paper Presented to a
Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.  (E)
This paper discusses some of the issues related to FAO's projections of the medium-term
outlook for agricultural commodities, with a time horizon of 2005, including the extent to
which the Uruguay Round AoA is expected to affect the outlook.  The questions addressed
are:  (i) Is the declining long run trend of real agricultural commodity prices coming to an
end? (ii) Is price instability in commodity markets on the increase?  (iii) Is the slow-down in
the growth of agricultural trade set to continue? and (iv) Will scientific change come to ruleagricultural commodity markets?
"Challenges and Opportunities: How do Developing Countries Prepare for the Next Round of
Trade Negotiations?" by J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay RoundIssues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome. (E)
This paper outlines the process for furthering the reform process for agriculture under
Article 20 of the AoA and discusses the most frequent problems confronted by developing
countries in their efforts to keep pace with their MTN commitments and negotiations.  Theseare: (i) the inadequate administrative/legal capacity to meet the requirements of WTO
membership, including preparation of notifications, defending interests of national agriculture
in the WTO, and assessing the impact on agriculture of policy changes agreed upon at WTO;
(ii) the insufficient national policy formulation capacity in agricultural, forestry, and fisheries
sectors and the inadequate analytical capacity to assess the impact of policy changes being
proposed at WTO;  (iii) the limited scientific, administrative and infrastructure capability to
deal with food standards, plant and animal health inspection services and quality assurancerequirements of developing countries' imports;  (iv) the lack of plant variety protection and
the necessity to rapidly develop such protection, by patents or sui generis  legislation, or a
mixture of both, by all WTO members, incl uding developing countries with no prior
experience; and (v) the lack of capacity to prepare and negotiate in MTN rounds, including
eventually the preparation/revision of national schedules of commitments to the WTO,requiring additional skills and a forward-looking capacity in their ministries.
"The Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Agricultural Commodity Markets", by
J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China,June 1998, FAO, Rome. (E)
This paper reviews the main repercussions of the Asian financial crisis on world agricultural
commodity prices, on the supply/demand situation in certain Asian countries and on food
security.  The immediate impact of the Asian crisis on global agricultural commodity marketsis expected to be negligible or slight for a majority of agricultural commodities and mildly
important for some others, namely maize, soybean meal, bovine meat, temperate fruits,
cotton, hides and skins, tropical fruits and rubber.  The main ways in which the Asian
financial crisis is expected to affect the fundamentals of world agricultural commodityG/AG/NG/S/16
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markets are:  (1) a one per cent decrease in the growth of world income, multiplied by an
average income elasticity of demand for basic agricultural commodities of significantly less
than unity;  (2) a small increase in the comp etitiveness of the devaluing countries;  (3) some
policy changes to offset the effects of the devaluation, thus attenuating the effect on world
agricultural markets;  (4) a relatively low natural level of the price transmission elasticity dueto the less-than-complete integration of markets, and (5) the diffused and often offsetting way
that exchange rate changes are passed on to th e domestic market (i.e. the inflation effect).
Uncertainties associated with this outlook include: how long will it take for recovery to occur
in real incomes and what will be the evolution of exchange rates?;  how will governments
respond to the crisis through trade policy measures, e.g. tariff reductions to facilitate imports
of foodstuffs and raw materials?;  and what will be the response to ease the severe credit
shortage, especially for commodities that involve processing.
"Is Freer Agricultural Trade Harmful for National  Food Security?  The case of least developed
and net food-importing developing countries", by H. de Haen and P. Konandreas, FAO, 1998.
(E)
This paper, delivered in honour of Ulrich Koester's Festschrift , examines the concern that
freer trade may be harmful to food security of ce rtain countries, in particular those with food
deficits.  The  paper discusses:  (i) how the food security situation in the LDCs and NFIDCs
has evolved in the recent past and how these countries have managed to meet their food needssince the Uruguay Round has come into effect;  (ii) the possible impacts of the UR on some
key variables of importance to these countries' food security, in particular the level and
variability of world prices;  (iii) what flexibility there is in the existing UR provisions to allow
countries to pursue food security policies; and (iv) how actions by the international
community can help create an enabling environment in which these countries can benefitmore from a fuller integration in world markets and freer agricultural trade.
"Policy Options for Developing Countries to Support Food Security in the Post-Uruguay Round
Period", by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield. Canadian Journal of Development Studies , 1998.
(E)
This paper analyzes the possible evolution of the level and variability of world market prices
of basic food commodities as a result of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and
other developments under way.  Policy options available to developing countries to support
food production and to safeguard against market instability are identified and suggestions are
made on how the international community can support these efforts.  Overall, existingflexibility in the AoA allows developing countries to pursue policies in support of domestic
food production and consumption and to mitigate the effects of possible world price
instability.  Some remaining problems must be addressed during the continuation of the
reform process under the World Trade Organization, scheduled to be initiated in 1999.
"Safeguarding Food Security in the Continua tion of the Reform Process under the WTO", by
P. Konandreas. Paper presented to Agricultu re, Trade and the WTO: preparing for the 1999
Negotiations, An International Workshop of NGOs and Farmers, 15-18 May 1998, Geneva.  (E)
The UR can potentially have both positive and negative effects on food security, and it is
important to try to identify both influences in order to foster progress in this area.  We should
not lose sight of the major accomplishments of the UR in the agricultural sector but much
remains to be done.  This paper is an attempt in that direction, focusing in particular on areasG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 39
where further reform may be needed to address some of the food security concerns of food
insecure countries.  These include, inter alia : tackling the high remaining protection that
limits access and distorts markets, improving the rules governing Tariff Rate Quotas, tackling
negative protection by allowing some extra support for food security, allowing safeguards
against cheap imports or extending the Special Safeguard (SSG) to all countries, consideringdisciplines on export taxes, tightening up the provisions on food aid, implementing the
Marrakesh Decision, maintaining a role for STEs, improving access to WTO's Dispute
Settlement mechanisms and strengthening trade-related capacity in developing countries.
"The Uruguay Round, the Marrakesh Decision and the Role of Food Aid, by Panos
Konandreas", Ramesh Sharma and J. Greenfield.  Paper presented to International Workshop
on Food and Human Security:  The Role of Food Aid and Finance for Food, Lysebu, Oslo, 26-
29 April 1998.  (E)
The paper analyses some aspects of food-related difficulties facing the developing countries
in the context of the Marrakesh Ministerial Decision.  One of the conclusions drawn from theanalysis of demand and supply parameters and the level of food-import dependency was that
a large number of the LDCs and NFIDCs would experience increased food import bills as
world prices rise, on account of high import dependency and limited scope for adjusting
domestic demand and supplies. In this context, the paper also analyses some features of
current food aid practices and provides ideas for raising the responsiveness of food aid tovariable needs of the recipients.
"Preparation for the Next Trade Negotiations on Agriculture". Proceedings and papers
submitted to Expert Consultation held in Rabat, Morocco, December 1998.  (E)
This document presents the proceedings and papers of an expert consultation on "the
Preparation for the Next Trade Negotiations on Agriculture", organised by FAO in
collaboration with the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Maritime
Fisheries.  The objective of this Consultation was to assist countries of north Africa sub-
region, through an in-depth assessment of the experience with the implementation of the
Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (UR AoA) , to better prepare themselves for the
next round of multilateral trade negotiations on agriculture.  The Consultation also aimed at
identifying the technical assistance needs of these countries to help realigning their domestic
regulations and policies with the UR Agreements, and to develop and strengthen their human
and institutional capacities, which are necessary for the successful implementation of the
Agreements.  Papers presented covered country experiences in implementing the UR AoA,emerging challenges in countries' trade with the European Union, and some issues for
consideration in setting a positive trade agenda for countries of the region in future
negotiations on agriculture.
"The Evolving Nature of International Price Instability in Cereals Markets," Alexander Sarris,
April 1998.  (E, summary in F and S)
This study provides a statistical account of the behaviour of world market prices of cereals
and analyses some important factors affecting price instability, both within a year and overtime, in the context of the reform process in agriculture.  The analysis led to a number of
conclusions.  First, average annual world market prices of cereals were found to be described
best by a Trend Stationary time series process, which means that any temporary shock to the
market does not leave permanent effects.  Second, there was no evidence of an increasingG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 40
trend in inter-year variability in world cereal prices. Recent price spikes did not appear to be
much outside the range of the normal historical  annual variations.  Third, there was also no
rising trend in intra-year price variability.  Fourth, the variability of world cereal yields was
not found to be increasing over time.  Fifth, the degree of the transmission of domestic
production variability through trade to world markets was found to be larger in more recentperiods. And sixth, there was a declining concentration in stockholding among regions in the
world.
"Implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement for South Asia:  The Case of Agriculture",
FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal, 22-24 April 1996, 1998.  (E)
This volume brings together the main papers presented at the Kathmandu workshop jointly
sponsored by the World Bank and FAO and collaborated by the WTO.  The 17 chapters in the
book are organised under four main sections:  (i) UR-related policy issues of a global nature
with an analysis of possible consequences for South Asian countries;  (ii) review of the key
components of the Agriculture and the SPS/TBT Agreements of the UR;  (iii) analysis of themarket implications of the UR AoA for selected commodities;  and (iv) five country case
studies (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka).
"Preparing for Multilateral Trade Negotiations on  Agriculture:  Articulation of Issues and
Positions", by R. Sharma, J. Greenfield and P. Konandreas.  Paper presented to
IFPRI/DSE/CTA International Workshop on Agricultural Policy of African Countries and
Multilateral Trade Negotiations – Challenges and Options, Harare, Zimbabwe, November 23-
26, 1998.  (E)
The paper discusses a number of key legal and substantive reasons why new trade
negotiations on agriculture would have to take place at the end of the UR implementation
period.  It then discusses the main elements of preparations envisaged under Article 20,
including experiences with the implementation of the AoA to date and non-trade concerns.
Based on a review of the most frequent problems confronted by developing countries in their
efforts to keep pace with their trade commitments and negotiations, the paper provides five
suggestions aimed at preparing these countries for effective participation in the newnegotiations, which include:  strengthening administrative arrangements;  need for seeking
and forming allies;  strengthening information ex change and analytical capacity;  participating
effectively in the WTO;  and taking advantage of technical assistance provided by
international organizations.
"The Implications of the Uruguay Round and Other Developments on the Importers of Basic
Foodstuffs in Sub-Saharan  Africa", by R. Sharma, P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield.  Paper
presented to IFPRI/DSE/CTA International Work shop on Agricultural Policy of African
Countries and Multilateral Trade Negotiations – Challenges and Options, Harare, Zimbabwe,November 23-26, 1998.  (E)
The paper analyses possible consequences for net food-importers of the UR AoA and other
developments taking place in global commodity markets, with particular focus on sub-
Saharan Africa.  This analysis is based on th ree components:  medium-term outlook for world
food markets;  medium-term food outlook for Af rica;  and possible consequences of the UR
AoA for food security.  The paper concludes that many unfavourable factors have checked the
growth of food production in sub-Saharan Africa despite the region's large potentials.
Realising this potential should be the main focus of policy makers and therefore they need toG/AG/NG/S/16
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be fully aware of the possible constraints that the rules of the UR AoA may impose on the
ability of these countries to realise this potential.
"Report on the Round Table on Uruguay Round Agreements – Implications for Agriculture
and Fisheries in Pacific Island Countries", Auckland, September 1998.  (E)
The report presents recommendations and papers of a round table meeting held at Auckland,
New Zealand on 31 August-2 September 1998.  Th e objective of meeting was to contribute to
capacity building in analysing Uruguay Round issues in Pacific Island countries.  Papers
presented covered a wide range of related subjects including, among others, introduction to
the Uruguay Round Agreements affecting agricultural and fisheries trade; outlook for worldagricultural and fishery markets;  the SPS and TBT agreements;  the consequences of the SPS
Agreement on fishery trade;  regional and preferential trading agreements, including the
Lomé Convention;  emerging issues for international agricultural trade negotiations; and
country experiences.
"Uruguay Round Agreements: Implications for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in the Less
Advantaged Countries".  A Workshop Co-organised by Agency for International Trade,
Information and Cooperation (AITIC) and FAO Geneva, 22-23 September 1998.  (E)
The document summarises proceedings and papers of a workshop organised by FAO in
collaboration with the Agency for International Trade Information and Co-operation (AITIC).
The workshop aimed at assisting the representatives of the less-advantaged countries (LACs)
in their preparation for the forthcoming negotiations on agriculture.  It was attended by
representatives of countries, which had not been able to follow the original negotiationsclosely, were unfamiliar with the implications of the AoA, or wanted to have a fuller grasp of
the AoA and related issues.  Major issues covered include the AoA, the Codex Alimentarius,
the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and their relation to the Agreement on
the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS); trade concerns related to the
global fish and livestock markets in relation to the WTO agreements; sustainable forest
management and international trade; and, finally bio-diversity and trade-related intellectual
property rights.
1999
"Environment, Trade and SARD: Concepts, Issues and Tools". Background Paper 4 in
Cultivating our Futures . Proceedings of the FAO/Netherlands Conference on the Multifunctional
Character of Agriculture and Land, Maastricht, the Netherlands, 12-17 September 1999.  (E)
This study surveys the major international frameworks that influence national policies in the
areas of international trade, environmental protection and sustainable agriculture and rural
development (SARD).  The 1992 Earth Summit, The 1994 WTO Agreements, the 1996World Food Summit and numerous Multilateral Environmental Agreements have set in
motion a dynamic process that is not yet entirely consistent or coherent in balancing the
objectives - environmental, economic and social - of the world's diverse nations.  While it is
clear that countries and groups within countries differ in their interests and priorities, it is
imperative that the international community seek common ground in addressing thesechallenges.  Toward that end, this paper review s the role of trade policy in SARD, discusses
the framework of international agreements and understandings in which the trade-
environment-SARD debate is being pursued, and explores the concepts and analytical tools
underpinning the debate.  The paper highlights the key issues of concern for developingG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 42
countries and concludes by identifying the principles underlying an effective policy
framework for trade liberalisation and environmental protection with the context of SARD.
"Forthcoming Multilateral Trade Negotiations on  Agriculture: Policy Issues and Options for
African Countries".  Paper Presented to the Second Meeting of The AEC Conference of African
Ministers of Trade, Algiers, Algeria, September, 20-24, 1999.  (E)
Agriculture lies at the center of the African economies.  It accounts for more than 30 per cent
of GDP, employs more than 60 per cent of the labour force, represents a major source of
foreign exchange, supplies the bulk of basic food and provides subsistence and income for
large rural populations.  This paper highlights the main issues of particular interest to Africancountries in the next round of WTO negotiations and it analyses ways for African countries to
participate more effectively in future negotia tions.  These include:  (i) strengthen the
administrative arrangements for the negotiations in the countries themselves to ensure that
agricultural concerns are addressed;  (ii) seek allies among other countries to strengthen their
hand at the negotiating table;  (iii) strengthen their information exchange capacity and accessto relevant studies by joining networks, commissioning their own studies and understanding
the positions of the major actors, etc.;  (iv) actively participate in ongoing preparatory work at
the WTO in the AIE process at the Committee on Agriculture;  and (v) take better advantage
of technical assistance provided by international organizations by articulating their training
needs themselves.
"Issues for Upcoming Multilateral Negotiations on Agriculture and Recommendations for
CARICOM Preparatory Work", by T. Josling, 1999.  (E)
The paper examines the implications of the Uruguay Round AoA for the countries of the
CARICOM region, including both their own comm itments and those of their major trading
partners - the United States, the European Union and South America.  It discusses the
relationship between the WTO and the various regional and preferential trading arrangements
of importance to region and identifies priority issues for the upcoming negotiations from the
perspective of CARICOM.  he recommendations in this regard include:  improving market
access through alternative tariff-cutting formulas and TRQ reforms;  improving thecompetitive conditions on world markets by eliminating export subsidies; curbing the use of
export taxes and reinstrumenting domestic support disciplines to tighten the green box and
phase out the blue box.  The paper discusses emerging issues and challenges for the trade
rules, including the entry of China and Russia into the WTO, state trading and biotechnology.
The paper concludes by recommending that th e countries of CARICOM coordinate their
positions within the negotiations to take advantage of collective action.
"Trade Issues: FAO Fact Sheets", Rome, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur/seattle.htm.  (E)
This series of briefing papers provides factual information and FAO analysis on critical trade-
related issues in the area of agriculture, fisheries and forestry.  Originally prepared as
background information for the Third WTO Ministerial Meeting, Seattle, 28 November –
3 December 1999, the series is periodically updated and expanded as appropriate.  The series
currently includes the following titles:  (1) Trade, Environment and Sustainable Development;(2) Trade Issues for Forest Products; (3) Agricultural Trade and Food Security; (4)
International Food Trade Beyond 2000: Science-Based Decisions, Harmonization,
Equivalence and Mutual Recognition;  (5) Food Quality, Food Safety and International Trade;
(6) The TRIPS Agreement and Agriculture;  (7) World Fisheries Trade and Some EmergingG/AG/NG/S/16
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Issues;  (8) Biosafety Issues Related to Biotechnology for Sustainable Agriculture and Food
Security;  (9) The International Plant Prot ection Convention (IPPC);  and (10) The Food
Situation in The Least Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries.
"Answers to Selected Questions for Deutscher Bundestag  Hearing on Coherence of Development
and Agricultural Policy in the Context of the EU and WTO", by Ramesh Sharma,
24 March 1999, Bonn.  (E)
This Note contains answers to a number of questions posed by the Parliamentary Committee
on Economic Cooperation and Development of the German Bundestag for the above Hearing
at the Bundestag.  Roughly 20 questions were asked under four broad headings:  (i) thesituation today;  (ii) current trends;  (iii) positions in the run up to the WTO negotiations;  and
(iv) conclusions for the WTO process and EU policy.  One topic of major interest to the
Parliamentarians was possible consequences of EU's agricultural and trade policies for
developing countries, notably the identification of specific EU policies that have the
potentials of harming trade interests of the latter.
"FAO Trade-Related Technical Assistance and Information", FAO, Rome, 1999.  (E)
There are considerable differences in countries' ability to assess their specific circumstances,
meet the Uruguay Round commitments in agriculture, forestry and fisheries and subsequently
benefit from the results.  Many will require technical assistance before they can do so.
Because of its specialist expertise and unique position in international agricultural, forestry
and fisheries affairs, FAO is well placed to provide that assistance. The principal purpose of
this booklet is to provide information on the technical assistance that FAO is able to providemember countries in building their capacity to deal with trade-related issues. This includes
assistance in areas related to implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreements and in
preparing developing countries to participate as equal partners in the new multilateral trade
negotiations on agriculture.
"Supporting Import-competing Agricultural Sectors with Tariffs, Safeguards and Domestic
Measures within the Framework of the Uruguay Round Agreements", by R. Sharma and
P. Konandreas, FAO, Paper presented at a Round Table held in New Delhi, India,
January 1999.
This paper was prepared for a Round Table on the subject organised by the Government of
India.  The main question asked was what options are there within the UR AoA to support,
and if necessary protect, import-competing sectors in a typical developing countries.  The
paper provides a general review of the various options and analyses the case of India in
particular.  Drawing upon India's situation, it wa s argued, for example, that India would be
able to raise its level of flexibility to support its agriculture considerably if the 10 per centde minimis  rule is applied to the sum of the non-product-specific and product-specific AMS
levels, rather than separately as under current rules.  The paper also  analyses India's UR tariff
bindings for a number of major food products and indicates anomalies and possible problems
and provides some suggestions for rationalising them.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 44
"Trade Issues Facing Small Island Developing States", by T. Raney, Background paper for the
Special Ministerial Conference on Agriculture in Small Island Developing States, Rome,
12 March 1999.  (E)
Small island and low-lying coastal developing states (SIDS) suffer specific handicaps arising
from the interplay of factors such as smallness, remoteness, geographical dispersion,
vulnerability to natural disasters and a limited internal market, in addition to the general
problems faced by developing countries.  This paper examines the implications of the
emerging global trading environment, especially the Uruguay Round AoA, for the agricultural
trade of 33 SIDS.  It examines the revealed comparative advantage of SIDS in international
markets for agricultural, fishery and forestry products and addresses the consequences of the
AoA for their trade. The paper recommends that for the short-run, SIDS should focus ontaking full advantage of the existing preferential trade opportunities available to them, as well
as of the market openings arising from the Uruguay Round. For the longer term, SIDS need to
focus their efforts on raising their competitive position in their traditional agricultural exports
and diversifying into other commodities and higher-value products.
"Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Worl d Sugar Market", by Michael K. Wohlgenant,
FAO, Rome, 1999.  (EFS)
The purpose of this report is to present and discuss findings of a study of trade liberalization
on the world sugar market.  A multi-region, non-spatial equilibrium model of the world sugar
market was developed in order to project future prices, production, consumption, stock
changes and net trade under various scenarios, including the Uruguay Round AoA, complete
global liberalization, and five partial liberalization scenarios.  The study suggests that the
AoA would increase world prices for sugar by 7 per cent, whereas full liberalization wouldraise prices 43 per cent.  The potential impacts of the alternative scenarios for various
countries and regions are discussed in detail.  For the ACP countries and the small island
states, the study indicates that under complete trade liberalization, the combined value of
transfers from the EC and the US to these countries is worth about 20 per cent of the value of
their export earnings.
"International Prospects for Dairying in the New WTO Context", Report and Papers of an
International Symposium, jointly organized by FAO, the Pan-American Dairy Federation, and
the International Dairy Federation, Bulletin of the International Dairy Federation , No. 343,
Brussels, 1999.  (ES)
The outcome of the next round of WTO negotiations on agriculture will have an important
impact on the world's dairy industry.  Amongst the issues likely to come up for negotiation
are the reduction or removal of export subsidies, reductions in import tariffs, increased market
access and limitations on domestic support measures.  Changes in any of these areas will have
important implications for the dairy sector, underlining the necessity for member of theindustry to be as well-informed as possible on potential developments.  This symposium was
aimed at senior dairy industry managers with the goal of allowing them to plan for the
development of their business into the next decade.  The programme was also relevant to
government officials, researchers and commentators needing to be well-informed on the
future environment within which the world's dairy industry will operate.G/AG/NG/S/16
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2000
"Salient trends in world agricultural produc tion, demand and trade and in food security",
Paper No. 1, Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issu es and Options in the WTO Negotiations
from the Perspective of Developing Countries , an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–
24 September 1999, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I: Report and
Papers, Rome 2000.  Also issued in Volume I:  Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
This paper reviews the major trends in world agricultural production, demand, trade and food
security in the last two decades, highlighting shifts in production, demand and trade as well as
food security indicators at the global and regional levels.
"Developments in global agricultura l markets, 1995-98", Paper No. 2, Agriculture, Trade and
Food Security: Issues and Option s in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing
Countries , an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website:
www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I:  Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
This paper reviews developments in agricultural markets for the period 1995-98 and considers
whether any changes of note may be attributable to the implementation of the Uruguay Round
AoA.  The analysis covers products that have generally been subject to high levels of
protection and support (e.g. cereals, meat and dairy products and sugar) as well as some
commodities that have faced relatively lower barriers, such as primary tropical products
(coffee, cocoa and tea).  This is followed by an analysis of changes in price variability for
particular products.
"Issues at stake relating to agricultural deve lopment, trade and food security," Paper No. 4,
Agriculture, Trade and Food Security:  Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries , an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24
September 1999, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I:  Report and Papers,
Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
This paper discusses some of the key issues relating to the development of agricultural
production and trade and to the enhancement of food security in developing countries in the
context of the forthcoming WTO negotiations on agriculture.  The paper details the
commitments made by developing countries in the areas of domestic support, export subsidies
and market access, and discusses the extent to which these commitments may limit their
flexibility in formulating policies for agricultural development and domestic marketstabilization.  The paper also identifies other possible impediments to the agricultural
development of developing countries, including the market access barriers in other countries,
difficulties in meeting SPS and TBT requirements, and differing priorities regarding non-
trade concerns.
"Food security and the WTO trade negotiations:  key issues raised by the World Food
Summit", Paper No. 5,  Agriculture, Trade and Food Security :  Issues and Options in the WTO
Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries , an FAO Symposium held at Geneva
on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I:  Report andPapers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
This paper sets out the key issues relating to food security raised by the outcome of the World
Food Summit held in November 1996, in relation to the forthcoming trade negotiations in theG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 46
WTO.  The World Food Summit Plan of Action contains seven commitments, three of which
bear directly on the food security – international trade interface.  These commitments relate to
food, agricultural and overall trade policies; sustainable food and agricultural production and
practices; and improving physical and economic access by all, at all times, to food.  The
multifunctional character of agriculture, which relates to non-trade concerns and which isnoted in the Plan of Action is also discussed.
"Measures to enhance agricultural development, tr ade and food security in the context of the
WTO negotiations", Paper No. 6, Agriculture, Trade and Food Security  Issues and Options in the
WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries , an FAO Symposium held at
Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur.  Also issued in Volume I:Report and Papers, Rome 2000.  (AEFS)
The rules and disciplines of the AoA are intended to restrict the use by countries of policy
measures that distort world agricultural markets.  Nevertheless, there is still flexibility to use a
wide range of policy options to pursue national agricultural policy objectives.  For eachcountry, the precise extent of this flexibility is determined by its specific commitments on
market access, domestic support and export subsidies.  With the next round of negotiations
about to begin, concern has been expressed by many developing countries that their policy
options for the future may be limited by the general provisions of the Agreement as well as by
their specific commitments.  These concerns, which are related to the issues at stake in theforthcoming negotiations, were reviewed in Pape r No. 4.  This paper continues that debate
and identifies measures that developing countries may pursue in the forthcoming negotiations
in order to preserve sufficient flexibility to achieve their agricultural production, trade and
food security goals.
"Commodity Market Review 1999-2000", Commodities and Trade Division, FAO, Rome,
March 2000.  (ACEFS)
This annual review of key developments in the global markets for 21 individual food and
agricultural commodities and commodity groups includes an update of the state of play in the
new round of WTO negotiations and analyses the major issues facing WTO members inimplementing the existing agreements and in the negotiations for the continuation of the
reform process.  The report reviews the Dispute Settlement Process and analyses market the
implications of the agricultural disputes heard in 1999.  A special feature article reviews the
AoA commitments on export subsidies and market access in the meat sector and analyses the
global market impacts of AoA implementation.
"Medium-Term Prospects for Agricultural Commodities:  Projections to the Year 2005", FAO,
Rome, August 2000.  (EFSA)
This study on medium-term prospects to 2005 includes a basic set of projections of
production, demand and trade for all major agricultural commodities, covering practically all
countries in the world.  In addition to the "baseline" scenario, based on economic and
demographic conditions expected to prevail up to the year 2005, known technological
developments, continuation of agricultural po licies and normal weather conditions, a number
of alternative policy scenarios are simulated  which evaluate the impact of different
combinations of economic, trade and agricultural policy conditions.  The study presents an
overview of the findings in terms of main changes in production, consumption and trade of
agricultural commodities in the year 2005.  The study also discusses the implications of theseG/AG/NG/S/16
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projections for developing and Low-Income-Food-Deficit Countries.  Finally, a technical
annex describes the methodology used in making the projections along with the main macro-
economic and demographic assumptions.
Agriculture, Trade and Food Security:  Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries, Volume I , Report and Papers of an FAO Symposium held
at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO, Rome, 2000. (EFSA)
This symposium addressed the interrelationship between agriculture, economic development
and food security and reviewed the experience of developing countries with the
implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and other relevant WTOAgreements, in terms of both the global agriculture market and country-level impacts.  The
participants discussed issues of concern to developing countries in the forthcoming round of
multilateral trade negotiations and explored policy options to assist them in pursuing their
food security and agricultural development goals.  The symposium was intended mainly for
government representatives concerned with the upcoming WTO negotiations on agriculture,interested international institutions and regional organizations and agricultural trade experts.
Volume I, Part One of this publication c ontains a summary of the proceeding of the
symposium, using as closely as possible the actual words of the panellists and participants.
Part Two reproduces five of the six background papers prepared for the Symposium (the
sixth, summarising national experience in 14 countries, is reproduced in Vol. II).
"The WTO Negotiations on Agriculture:  Post -Seattle Major Issues, Analytical Needs and
Technical Assistance Requirements".  Summary Re port on an Informal Inter-Agency Meeting,
Organised by FAO, Rome, 12-13, June 2000, FAO website:  www.fao.org/ur.  (E)
This Summary Report highlights the key findings of an informal inter-agency meeting of
international trade experts, including the representatives of six international agencies and the
UN regional Commissions.  The purpose of the meeting was to exchange views on the critical
issues in the negotiations on agriculture fo r which international agencies and research
institutions could be of assistance in providing analytical support and technical assistance. A
related objective was to explore the possibilities for synergies and collaboration amongagencies in the provision of this assistance.  While noting the diversity of interests and
positions among WTO members, the meeting identified three areas to be of high importance,
particularly for the developing countries, in the negotiations  (1) a more level playing field in
agriculture;  (2) better market access for agricultural products;  and (3) Special and
Differential Treatment for developing countries that is relevant, concrete and targeted.
(ii) Work in progress
"Experience with the Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture:
Synthesis of Fourteen Country Case Studies", Agriculture, Trade and Food Security:  Issues
and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries", an FAO
Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO website: www.fao.org/ur.  To be
issued in Volume II:  Country Case Studies, FAO, Rome, forthcoming, 2000.  (EFSA)
This report presents a synthesis of fourteen country case studies commissioned by FAO in the
summer of 1999.  The purpose of these studies was to review country experience with the
implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, both positive and negative,G/AG/NG/S/16
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in adapting border and domestic policies to the AoA provisions and national commitments
and the effects so far on trade flows.  The selection of the 14 countries was based on a number
of considerations, such as broad geographical balance, inclusion of different categories of
countries, such as least-developed countries, net food-importing developing countries and
agricultural exporters.  One observation common to several of the case studies was that therehas been a general trend towards the consolidation of farms as competitive pressures began to
build up following trade liberalization.  While this has generally contributed to increased
productivity and competitiveness, it also led to the displacement and marginalization of farm
labourers, creating hardship that involved typically small farmers and food-insecure
populations, in a situation where there are few social safety nets.  As a result, policy makers
in developing countries, most of whom are c onvinced of the need for market orientation and
liberalization, face a dilemma in deciding the appropriate pace of trade liberalization.  In thefinal analysis, the pace of trade liberalization has to bear some relationship to the ability of
economic agents in agriculture to adapt to the new conditions and become more competitive.
Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues an d Options in the WTO Negotiations from the
Perspective of Developing Countries, Volume II:  Country Case Studies , FAO Symposium held at
Geneva on 23–24 September 1999, FAO, Rome, forthcoming, 2000.  (EFSA)
This report presents the findings of fourteen country case studies commissioned by FAO in
the summer of 1999 in preparation for the Geneva food security Symposium.  The casestudies were conducted by national experts and covered: Bangladesh, Botswana, Brazil,
Egypt, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Senegal, Sri Lanka and
Thailand.  This volume summarizes the findings of the fourteen studies and presents the
country case studies in their entirety.
"Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture: A Resource Manual", FAO, Rome,
forthcoming, 2000.  (AEFS)
As part of its mandate to provide assistance to member countries in the context of the follow-
up to the Uruguay Round and future negotiations on agriculture, FAO has prepared this
Manual as background material for government officials and specialists from academic andprivate sector institutions participating in FAO's workshops.  More generally, it should also be
of interest to those who have responsibility for implementing the WTO Agreements on
agriculture, SPS, TBT and TRIPS or who will be involved in the new negotiations. In
addition to explaining the basic concepts of the WTO Agreements which most directly affect
agriculture, provides other information relevant for better understanding and assessing theimplications for national policies of the WTO Agreements as well as their possible impact on
the agricultural economies.  The information contained in the Manual draws on FAO's
analytical and field experience in food and agriculture, fisheries and forestry.  It also taps
FAO's unique expertise in such areas as the assessment of the global food supply and demand
situation; the analysis of the impact of the WTO Agreements on agricultural commoditymarkets, and on food security at the world, regional and national levels; the harmonization of
international scientifically based and risk-assessed standards for food quality and safety
through the Codex Alimentarius Commission (jointly with WHO);  phytosanitary standards
through the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC);  and the conservation and
utilization of genetic resources for food a nd agriculture through the Commission on Genetic
Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA), the only UN intergover nmental forum dealing
with this subject matter.  The Manual also ta kes into account ongoing work of relevance to
trade and natural resources management, as well as environmental and ethical concerns, such
as the Code of Conduct on Responsible Fisherie s, the International Code of Conduct for theG/AG/NG/S/16
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Distribution and Use of Pesticides, the Codex Code of Ethics for International Trade in Food,
and the Draft Code of Conduct on Biotechnology.
"Experience with the Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture", 63rd
Session of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP), FAO, Rome, forthcoming,
January 2001.  (ACEFS)
This revised report presents further analysis of the UR Agreement on Agriculture covering:
(i) experiences on domestic policies of the developing countries with implementing the
Agriculture Agreement, and the impact on (ii) global commodity markets;  (iii) agricultural
trade; and (iv) food security.  The study reviews developments in agricultural markets andfood security for the period 1995 to 1999 and considers whether any changes may be
attributable to the implementation of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA).  The analysis
covers products that have generally been subject to high levels of protection and support (e.g.
cereals, meat and dairy products and sugar) as well as some commodities that have faced
relatively lower barriers, such as primary tropical products.  This is followed by a review ofchanges in the food security situation over 1995-99.  Thus, the study examines the recent
evolution of the FAO Committee on Food Security  Global Food Security Indicators, and
attempts to assess the impacts of the AoA of the Uruguay Round on these indicators.  The
magnitude of cereal import bills in the LDCs and the NFIDCs, and the ability of these groups
of countries to pay for their food import bills are also monitored in the study.
"Analysis of the Current Market Access Situation and of Further Trade Expansion Options in
Global  Agricultural Markets".  63rd Sessio n of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems
(CCP), FAO, Rome, forthcoming, January 2001.  (ACEFS)
This study reviews the current market access situation in agricultural markets at the global
level for the post-UR period.  Its first objective is the identification of tariff peaks in the
agricultural and food sector for relevant commodity groupings.  The analysis intends to
clarify the magnitude of agricultural tariffs in those markets that still face high protection
levels even after most tariff reduction commitments and Tariff Rates Quotas (TRQs) phase-
outs agreed in the UR have been fully implemented.  This paper also considers further tradeexpansion options, and discusses how various tariff cutting formulae would affect tariff peaks
in the most protected sectors.  The issues of tariff escalation, tariff complexity, and the
administration of TRQs are also reviewed here.G/AG/NG/S/16
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
(i) Completed studies
"The Burden of Sub-Saharan African Own Commitments in the Uruguay Round - Myth or
Reality?", by Piritta Sorsa (WP/95/48).
In contrast to the various statements made on the "cost" or burden for developing countries
from their Uruguay Round commitments, the Roun d is unlikely to burden SSA with many
new "obligations".  First, apart from South Africa, most SSA countries made few substantial
liberalization commitments on border protection in agriculture, industry or services.  This was
partly a reflection of the nature of the agreements concluded.  As many of the reductions in
non-tariff barriers were designed to the types of policies applied in industrial countries, the
often different policies in developing countries will be less affected.  For example, manydeveloping countries do not subsidize agriculture, but tax it, which is not covered by the
agreement.  Partly, it reflected the unwillingness of SSA to make meaningful commitments to
bind protection to reasonable levels (applied rates will not change).
Second, the agreements offer much flexibility in the adoption of the new rules.  Their
adoption is subject to long transition periods, which in most cases can be further extended.
Also, many of the general exemptions or those for balance of payments support remain
available for unwilling liberalizers wishing to s eek legal cover for trade restrictions.  Apart
from the increase in transparency from the notification requirements, few changes to policies
are required by SSA in the short run.  Some review may be required in export subsidies and
local content requirements.  While the benefits of the TRIPs agreement can be questionable
for most of SSA in the short run, the application of the rules in subsidies in most cases should
promote sound economic policies.
SSA has not used the Round to support domestic efforts at trade policy reform.  The Round
provided an opportunity for countries to go beyond their unilateral liberalization efforts in
exchange for multilateral concessions, or to bi nd their domestic reforms to an international
framework.  As most models showed that most gains from the Round would come from
countries' own liberalization efforts, SSA by not making liberalization commitments in the
Round may have thereby lost one opportunity for gains.  The exception was the SouthernAfrican Union, that used the Round to consolidate ongoing domestic reform programs.  In the
end, this means that structural change and trade liberalization in most of SSA will depend on
unilateral initiatives taken independently or in the context of Bank/Fund adjustment
operations.  Unless these are pursued, the ability of SSA to take advantage of the emerging
opportunities in their export markets may also be lost.
"The Uruguay Round and the Net Food Importers", by Uwe Eiteljörge and Clinton Shiells
(WP/95/143).
Summary
The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture established commitments on converting
quantitative restrictions to tariffs, setting upper bounds on tariff rates for all agricultural items,
lowering these bound rates over time, cutting export subsidies, and reducing overall support
to agriculture (including domestic input and production subsidies), over a six-year
implementation period.  Export subsidy reductions by industrial countries that adhere to thecommitments in the Round may raise world prices of some agricultural commodities byG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 51
reducing the supply of exports to world markets.  A ministerial decision contained in the Final
Act of the Uruguay Round Agreement addresses this possible implication of the Round on net
food-importing developing countries and discusses the possibility that such countries may
need to draw upon the resources of the international financial institutions.
This paper assesses the implications of chan ges in world food prices owing to the Round for
net food imports of developing countries, with a view to assessing whether additional external
financing may be required.  Previous studies have examined changes in world food prices
attributable to the Round for broad groups of developing countries, but have analyzed
separately only a few large developing countries.  The present study analyzes further
individual country effects by estimating changes in net food import costs for a sample of
57 developing countries for which the issue of higher food costs may be especially relevant,for each of four food categories (coarse grains, wheat, rice, and sugar).
Results show that changes in net food imports  attributable to the Round are likely to be
relatively small in percentage terms but may be substantial in absolute terms for some of the
larger trading nations in the sample.  In any event, effects would be felt only gradually withinthe six-year implementation period for agricultural liberalization.  While some countries' net
food import costs for the four commodity groups analyzed may actually fall as a result of the
Round, since world prices of some food items (such as rice) are expected to decline, most
countries in the sample are expected to pay more for food imports on net.  The increases in
the cost of net food imports for the four food categories covered are less than 4 per cent forevery country in the sample, although some large countries are expected to experience
increases in net food import costs in excess of US$10 million.  Even though small changes in
food import costs may be important, especially for some smaller developing countries, the
results obtained in this study suggest that th e incremental financing needs occasioned by the
Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture are likely to be modest.
Conclusions
During the Uruguay Round developing countries expressed concern regarding effects of the
Agreement on Agriculture on food import bills.  This study attempted to estimate how much
net food import costs would rise by the end of the six-year implementation period for
57 countries in each of four product groups (coarse grains, wheat, rice, and sugar).  Theestimated effects were obtained by forming a medium-term projection of net food imports that
incorporated the effects of the Agreement on Agriculture, and then comparing this with an
alternative projection that did not incorporate agricultural liberalization commitments
specified under the Agreement.  These projections were formed for each country and
commodity in the sample, using food trade data from the FAO, medium-term projections ofcommodity prices and demand growth prepared by Fund staff in connection with the WEO
exercise, and estimated effects of the Agreement on Agriculture on world food prices
contained in Goldin and van der Mensbrugghe (1995).
Results obtained in this paper indicate that the impact of higher world food prices due to the
Round should be modest in percentage terms, although effects may be more significant in
dollar terms for several of the larger net food-i mporting countries.  Estimated increases in net
food imports of over US$10 million were obtai ned for Egypt, Algeria, Mexico, Morocco,
Yemen, Nigeria, Peru, Ethiopia, and Albania.  Estimated per cent changes in net food imports
of these four food items were small, ranging up to 4.0 per cent for Ethiopia.  As a per cent ofgross food imports (including all food except fish), changes were even smaller, ranging up to
2.7 per cent for Ethiopia.  Though small in percentage terms, the effects of higher world food
prices due to the Round will likely be felt only gradually as liberalization is phased in over the
six-year implementation period.  Further, these estimates may overstate the impact of theG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 52
Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture on the net food import bills of developing
countries, since they were constructed to represent an upper bound on the likely effects.  In
particular, many developing countries obtain a substantial amount of food in the form of aid,
which should be deducted from the estimated changes in net food imports to obtain estimates
of incremental financing needs.
In response to concerns expressed by deve loping countries, the Uruguay Round agreement
included a decision that recognized the possibility that certain developing countries may
experience short-term difficulties in financing normal levels of commercial food imports, and
that these countries may be eligible to draw on the resources of international financial
institutions under existing facilities, or such facilities as may be established in order to
address such financing difficulties.  The results of this study should assist in allaying theseconcerns.  The estimated financing needs appear modest and can be met under existing IMF
facilities in conjunction with resources from other multilateral and bilateral agencies.
"Effects of the Uruguay Round on Egypt and Morocco", by Clinton Shiells,
Avind Subramanian and Peter Uimonen (WP/96/7).
Summary
The conclusion of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations represents an
important achievement for international trading relations and medium-term growth prospects
for the world economy.  Nevertheless, some developing countries have raised concerns about
possible adverse effects of the Round relating to the erosion of preferences for some suppliers
and to higher food-import prices.
The paper sets out a methodology for quantifying the effects on developing countries of the
various commitments under the Round on the liberalization of trade in goods.  This
methodology is applied to Egypt and Morocco.  The case studies illustrate the range of effects
engendered by the Round on imports and exports.  The paper also identifies the limitations of
the methodology.
The analysis reveals that Egypt and Morocco did not undertake significant commitments to
liberalize their own trade regimes (although Egypt will eliminate its quantitative restrictions
on textiles and clothing), but locked in previous trade liberalization and rendered their
regimes more transparent.  On the export side, the most significant impact on the two
countries will be the elimination of the restrictive regime in textiles and clothing embodied in
the Multifibre Arrangement.  During the ten year phase-out period of this Arrangement, theeffect is expected to be positive on Egypt as its export quotas grow, but negative on Morocco,
which may suffer a loss in market share to currently constrained competitors.  Thereafter, the
export prospects of the two countries will depend critically on their ability to compete with
suppliers in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia.  Both the gains from most-favoured-
nation tariff cuts on Egypt's exports and the losses stemming from the erosion of preferencemargins on export products that benefit from preferences are estimated to be small.  In the
case of Morocco, a predominant share of whose exports receive preferences in the European
Union market, there will be some loss in exports from the most-favoured-nation tariff cuts,
although these will be small.  Increased food costs from higher food prices are also likely to
be insignificant.  The overall balance of payments impact on the two countries, thoughnegative, is not likely to be significant.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 53
Nonetheless, the impact of the Round needs to be closely monitored as its provisions are
implemented.  Policy efforts should be directed at increasing productivity and fostering a
favourable investment climate to ensure that benefits of the Round are maximized.
Conclusions
The case studies for Egypt and Morocco provide a basis for the following conclusions.  First,
for the most part, Egypt and Morocco undertook few commitments to liberalize their own
trade regimes.  Thus, the Uruguay Round was not used as an opportunity for significant
further liberalization in goods or services.  Egypt did undertake some commitments to lock in
its past trade liberalization and render it more transparent by binding its entire tariff schedule;
but incremental liberalization was not significant, except for the elimination of quantitativeimport restrictions in textiles and clothing and poultry.  Although bound rates are not greatly
in excess of applied rates, the latter remain high in absolute terms and in comparison to many
other developing countries.  Morocco also made very substantial commitments by increasing
the number of tariff lines covered by bindings to 100 per cent in both agriculture and industry,
and by agreeing to convert quantitative restrictions on certain agricultural items into tariffs.
Second, the crucial determinant of future export opportunities will be the provisions of the
Uruguay Round Agreement on Textiles and Clothing.  In the case of Egypt, the beneficial
impact will arise primarily from the expansion of textile and clothing quotas during the ten-
year phase-out period of the MFA.  Morocco is not an MFA participant and quantitativerestrictions on its exports of clothing to the EU are not strictly enforced.  As a result, Morocco
likely will face additional competitive pressures in the EU market due to increased MFA
quota growth rates for its competitors and the eventual full integration of textiles and clothing
into the WTO.
Third, the negative effects stemming from preference erosion and from increased food prices
are likely to be small for both countries.  Regard ing the latter, the increase in food prices will
be small as the extent of agricultural liberalization in the Round was limited.  In the case of
Egypt, the preference erosion effect is small as preferential exports account for a small
fraction of total exports.  Morocco ships mostly to the EU, and receives duty-free treatment
from the EU except for certain agricultural products.  However, the effects of preference
erosion on Morocco's exports are likely to be small because the EU's MFN tariff cuts aremodest for products of relevance to Morocco.
Fourth, combining the effects on imports and exports, the above analysis suggests that the
balance of payments impact of the Round is not likely to be highly significant.  In the case of
Egypt, the balance of payments impact is virtually nil (-$3 million in 1993/94 dollars).  Thisresult reflects the roughly offsetting effects of increases in textile and clothing exports
($241 million) and imports ($176 million).  In the case of Morocco, however, the estimated
negative impact is more substantial, at $125 million in 1992 dollars (or 5 per cent of the 1992
trade balance), but this effect will be felt only gradually through 2005.  These estimates are
subject to the qualifications noted in Section II and should be viewed as indicative of thelikely quantitative impact of the Round.  The actual impact of the Round for these countries
needs to be monitored closely with a view to identifying any adjustment and financing needs.
Finally, an important caveat should be noted to the opportunities and challenges created by
the Round (relating principally to the textiles and clothing sector for both Egypt andMorocco).  In order to avail itself of the opportunity opened up by the expanded quotas,
Egypt's supply capacity will have to be improved.  To keep pace with its competitors,
Morocco will need to increase its productivity, including through upgrading its educational
system and transportation and communications infrastructure, and by fostering a favourableG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 54
investment climate.  More generally, in the long run, when the MFA is completely
dismantled, the export performance of both Egypt and Morocco will depend crucially on their
ability to compete with exporters in the Middle East, Asia and Eastern Europe.
"Implications of the Uruguay Round for Kenya", by Rupa Chanda (WP/96/8).
Summary
The Uruguay Round Agreement improved market access in agricultural and industrial
products and introduced new areas into the multilateral framework of rules and disciplines.
Trade liberalization achieved under the Round is e xpected to have significant implications for
international trade and medium-term growth prospects for developing and industrial
countries.  There are, however, some concerns about possible adverse effects on certain
developing countries owing to preference erosion and food price effects.
This paper examines the implications of the Round for Kenya.  Kenya was chosen because it
provides a good case study for demonstrating some of the effects that are of concern to
developing countries.  The paper analyses the commitments made by Kenya under the Round
to determine their impact on the country's domestic  trading environment.  It also analyses the
concessions made by Kenya's main trading partners in the Round to assess their implications
for the country's external trading environment and its exports to major partner markets.
The analysis indicates the Uruguay Round will not lead to any major changes in Kenya's
domestic trade regime and imports since Kenya made few significant commitments under the
Round.  On the export side, however, there will be several effects.  The results of a simple
partial equilibrium simulation exercise indicate that there will be export gains for a fewcommodities owing to cuts in most-favoured-na tion tariffs, but that these will be largely
offset by export losses arising from preference erosion and lower prices of important
agricultural exports.  Overall, the results indicate a small negative effect on Kenya's medium-
term balance of payments.
The use of partial equilibrium methodology is subject to the usual caveats; the results of the
study should therefore be treated as indicative.  The quantitative results conform to theintuitive analysis.  The study highlights areas that will need to be closely monitored in order
to assess the Round's implications for developing countries like Kenya.  It also demonstrates
that these effects will partly depend on the policy response by authorities to take advantage of
the opportunities created by the Round as well as to facilitate the ad justments necessitated by
it.
Concluding Remarks
This study indicates that the Uruguay Round agreement will not produce major gains for
Kenya's exports in terms of increased market access.  For the most part, Kenya's exports willexperience a modest loss in export earnings due to reduced preference margins in key export
markets like the EU.  The effects will also be heavily concentrated in a few products and in a
few markets.
The analysis also indicates that there may be modest adverse effects on Kenya's export
earnings due to a decline in world prices for its main agricultural exports.  In the latter regard,
the study suggests that changes in world ag ricultural prices following the Round do not
concern only food-importing developing countries.  Both food exporting and food-importing
developing countries may stand to gain or lose from the changes in agricultural pricesG/AG/NG/S/16
Page 55
depending on the commodity composition of their agricultural trade and the extent to which
there is effective trade liberalization in the agricultural sector.
On the domestic front, the study indicates that the Uruguay Round agreement will have little
or no impact on the trade regime.  Most changes will be determined by unilateral tradeliberalization measures and reforms.  The latter will also help mitigate some of the preference
erosion effects resulting from the Agreement.  Domestic measures to diversify and promote
exports, to improve productivity, and other structural adjustment measures to adapt and
respond to changes in the multilateral trading system could play an instrumental role in
offsetting losses in export revenue due to preference erosion.  These unilateral measures may
also be important for creating and enhancing opportunities for improved market access.
In sum, given the relatively small magnitudes of the effects found in this study, their phased
nature, and the scope for corrective domestic policy responses in the interim, the Uruguay
Round Agreement is not likely to have a significant impact on Kenya's balance of payments.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 56
ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
(i) Completed studies
"Agricultural policies in emerg ing and transition economies 2000."
Executive summary
Part 1 of this report focuses on the agricultural trade policy concerns of emerging and
transition economies (ETEs).  Specifically, it examines how ETEs would be affected by
reforms in the areas of market access, export competition and domestic support.  The key
conclusions of the analysis are presented below.
The concerns of emerging and transition economies (ETEs) are likely to become increasingly
prominent in multilateral trade negotiations.
ETEs are increasingly important to international trade, and are expected to participate more
actively in the multilateral process.  In particular, the anticipated WTO accession of China,
Russia and Ukraine is expected to have important implications for the way in which tradeagreements are reached.  Furthermore, a number of ETEs have introduced liberalizing
reforms unilaterally and will be seeking concessions from countries with greater protection -
in a number of cases, these are OECD countries.
Trade protection has restricted agriculture's contribution to economic growth.Such is the extent of agricultural protection that the potential gains from agricultural
liberalization are estimated to be as high as the potential benefits from industrial
liberalization, even though agriculture accounts for a smaller fraction of world trade.  The
persistence of agricultural protection in many OECD countries has meant that whereasdeveloping countries have seen their share of industrial markets increase in the last 20 years,
their share of world agricultural markets has remained more or less unchanged.
ETEs are a diverse group, but nevertheless have a core set of common interests.
Although trade liberalization promises aggregate gains, some countries may need a broader
(multi-sector) agreement in order to benefit. Wi thin countries, there will also be both winners
and losers.  Moreover, on specific issues, ETEs have a complex pattern of policy interests.
Nevertheless, ETEs have a shared interest in being integrated into the world trading system,
and in "transparent" legal commitments that are easily implemented and monitored.
Agricultural trade policy is not the only thing that mattersOther important determinants of trade performance include macroeconomic and structural
policies, and the extent to which principles of good governance are observed. Moreover, there
are a number of obstacles to transition and development that are both important in their own
right, and condition a country's ability to benefit from trade reform.  These obstacles compriseall factors that impede the functioning of the market system.  They include poor
infrastructure; incomplete privatisation and land reform; labour market rigidities; weak
contract enforcement; underdeveloped credit facilities; and inefficient marketing channels.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 57
ETEs need trade policy commitments that allow them to address their development objectives.
ETEs have a self-interest in liberalizing their agricultural trade policies.  At the same time,
they also need a trade agreement that does not limit their ability to pursue broader
development goals.  In particular, whilst trade reform should, on balance, help lift people outof poverty, it may need to be accompanied by appropriate domestic policies.
OECD countries are the most important markets for ETEs.ETEs are concerned about both directions of market access; that is, foreign exporters' access
into their markets, and their own exporters' access into overseas markets.  The ETE net-
exporters in this report are concerned primar ily with their access to  OECD country markets.
For a number of net-importing ETEs, both directions of access are important.  A number of
ETEs maintain high tariffs, but these are often at least matched by the tendency of OECD
countries to impose prohibitive tariffs on sensitive products.
ETEs' interests in export competition policies centre on the use of export subsidies by a
limited number of OECD countries.
In the next round of multilateral negotiations, ETEs as a group will again be affected
predominantly by the extent to which OECD countries commit to reductions in export
subsidies, including implicit export subsidies.  Few ETEs have the financial capacity toprovide export subsidies. Direct policy changes will therefore be important in a limited
number of transition economies, and - if the rules on export competition are extended to
include export-reducing policies - in those ETEs that restrict agricultural exports.
A major concern of ETEs is that domestic support in OECD countries should be reduced.The largest OECD countries dominate the us e of domestic support measures. ETEs are
affected by this support to the extent that it distorts trade.  The tendency in OECD countries
has been for support to be shifted into the Green Box of policies that are exempt from
reduction commitments.  In theory, these pol icies are no more than "minimally trade-
distorting", but their actual impact on production and trade may be significant.
If a new WTO agreement is to have the maximum ef fect, then it needs to limit countries' scope
for avoiding their reform commitments.
This means tightening  the laws, to eliminate possible loopholes, and broadening  them, such
that alternative means of restricting trade are closed down.  A major threat to further tradeliberalization is that countries will become incr easingly adept at limiting the impact of their
reform commitments while staying within the letter of WTO law.
ETEs capacity to benefit from a multilateral  agreement is conditional on the development of
their human and institutional capital.
Many ETEs suffer from deficiencies in basic information, such as economic statistics and
customs data.  Often, this institutional weakness is compounded by the fact that  ETEs do not
have the requisite trained professionals (statisticians, economists and policy analysts).  The
problems of a weak domestic, human and institutional resource base are further amplified bya lack of international representation, and by weak communication from domestic exporters to
international negotiators and representatives.  Investment in these areas would lead to a more
balanced implementation of a multilateral trade agreement, as well as providing broader
economic benefits.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Domestic and international environmental im pacts of agricultural trade liberalization."
Executive summary
Agricultural trade liberalization has the potential to contribute to overall improvements in
environmental performance.  Further reductions of barriers to agricultural trade (a scenario
assuming an extension of the Uruguay Round commitments until 2004) will have both
positive and negative impacts on the environment.  The direction and magnitude of these
effects will depend on the trade liberalization-induced changes in agricultural production
patterns, the state of the environment, and the environmental regulations and policies in place
to preserve and improve environmental quality.  Given the considerable diversity of
agricultural production systems, natural conditions, and regulatory approaches in OECDcountries, the environmental impacts will vary between countries, regions, and locations.
Indeed, many environmental effects are site-specific.
A reduction of trade barriers will influence the overall scale of agricultural activities, the
structure of agricultural production in different countries, the mix of inputs and outputs, theproduction technology, and the regulatory framework.  These adjustments, in turn, will
impact on the international and domestic environment by increasing or reducing
environmental harm and creating or destroying environmental amenities.  International
environmental effects include greenhouse gas emissions, changes in international transport
flows, and the potential introduction of non-native species alongside agricultural products.Domestic environmental effects include water pollution from fertiliser and pesticide run-offs,
and changes in land-use that affect landscape appearance, flood protection, and biodiversity.
This study illustrates the direction and magnitude of some of the environmental impacts by
combining preliminary results on the commod ity market impacts of agricultural trade
liberalization with agri-environmental indicators.  The international environmental impacts
indicate that projected medium-term increases in ruminant livestock numbers could lead to
substantial increases in methane emissions in some OECD countries, which could warrant the
attention of policy makers in the context of existing Kyoto Protocol commitments on
greenhouse gas emissions.
With respect to domestic environmental impacts, the quantitative analysis suggests that
agricultural prices and production intensity would decrease in countries that have had
historically high levels of fertiliser and pesticide application, so that environmental stress in
these countries would be relieved.  Countries where increases in production intensity occur
might be able to accommodate increased application rates of agro-chemicals relatively easily,
as their historical levels of fertiliser and pesticide use tend to be low.  Projections on theeffects of further agricultural trade liberalization on land use do not suggest substantial
changes in agricultural land.  Yet, the analysis does not allow to derive firm conclusions on
prospective changes in landscape appearance, soil and flood protection, and biodiversity,
since the projections did not explicitly consider pastures and marginal agricultural land.
Under the assumptions of the scenario anal ysis, the environmental impacts of general
economic developments are more important than those of further agricultural trade
liberalization, so that agri-environmental policies will need to be developed independently of
trade policy reform.  Environmental effects from changes in agricultural activities will most
effectively be addressed through targeted policy measures that distort agricultural productionand trade to the least possible extent.  As far as transboundary effects on the environment are
concerned, international co-operation, for exampl e in the form of international environmental
agreements, might be necessary to overcome the free-rider problem.G/AG/NG/S/16
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(ii) Work in Progress
"Evaluation of the Implementation of the URAA in OECD Countries."
Outline
The main objectives of the project are threefold.  First, to provide an economic analysis and
assessment of what has actually happened in the areas of market access, domestic support and
export subsidies as a result of the URAA.  Second, to examine related emerging policy issues
with a view to furthering the process of trad e liberalization.  Third, to provide an overall
appraisal of recent trade developments and the immediate trade implications of the URAA.
More specifically, the project attempts to address the following questions:
- How effective have the three disciplines been in bringing about a reduction in the
level of trade protection?
- What policy lessons can be drawn from the experience so far?- What might be inferred about opportunities and challenges for further trade
liberalization?
On market access , the study provides an analysis of the tariff profile of OECD countries as it
emerged from the URAA using some statistical indicators of tariff predictability, transparency
and dispersion.  It presents an economic analysis of tariff rate quotas with special reference to
allocation and administration methods, and attempts to provide a preliminary assessment as to
whether TRQs have improved or impeded market access. It analyses, in particular, the
implications of auctioning import permits.  Tariff quota fill rates are calculated by country,product and by allocation method over time.  An attempt is also made to examine the extent
to which "water in the tariffs" is still a feature of markets for tariffied products.  The use and
economic implications of special safeguards are discussed.
On domestic support , the study provides an analysis of the structure of domestic agricultural
policy that has arisen under the URAA by disc ussing trends and composition of domestic
support (i.e. AMS, blue box, green box, special and differential treatment and de minimis
support). The extent to which domestic support commitments are binding is assessed and
policy changes are evaluated in terms of potential implications for market orientation and
trade. The evolution of agricultural support is discussed and differences between AMS and
PSE estimates are outlined. Some issues which have risen during the implementation period
are also highlighted.
On export subsidies , the relative importance of export subsidies in OECD countries is
discussed. The study highlights the extent to which export subsidies, both in volume and
budgetary outlays terms, have been used by OECD countries and export subsidy rates are
calculated for a number of products and countries over time to assess the effectiveness of theexport subsidy discipline in reducing trade distortions. It also describes the main policy
changes implemented in response to the reduction commitments and discusses some of the
issues that have risen.
Methodology
The approach is partly descriptive and partly analytical. It is primarily based on country
notifications to WTO and URAA country Schedu les. In addition, the OECD PSE/CSE data,G/AG/NG/S/16
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the OECD (1997) Indicators of Tariff and non-Tariff Barriers and the OECD (2000) Tariffs
and Trade databases are also used. Indicators such as nominal protection coefficients,
dispersion indicators, ad valorem equivalents are calculated to estimate changes in the level of
support and protection across countries and commodities.  Further, some empirical evidence
on agricultural trade openness is providing by comparing indicators for periods prior to andfollowing the start of the implementation of the URAA.  These indicators include, trade flows
as measured by export and import volumes, trade openness calculated as the average share of
agricultural imports plus exports in agricultur al GDP; import penetration ratios defined as the
ratio of agricultural imports to consumption, trade shares and nominal protection coefficients
as a measure of price distortions.  In addition, the evolution of the levels and variability of
world commodity prices is discussed.
Status :  Final draft late 2000.
"A forward-looking analysis of ex port subsidies in agriculture."
Outline
Within a context of a broader programme of work on evaluating and strengthening trade
liberalization, this project builds from the conclusions of the Evaluation of the
Implementation of the URAA in OECD Countri es and recent WTO background material as
regards the recent experience with export subs idies to analyse the market effects of these
programmes in a forward-looking context.  The role of export subsidies in the OECD
Agricultural Outlook 2000-2005 (Outlook) are examined. Projections of OECD member
countries' export subsidies drawn from the data of these various reports are summarised for
2001-2005.  Like all other elements of the Outlook, the evolution of export subsidies is in part
dependent upon the assumptions, particularly the continuation of announced policy and a
certain set of macroeconomic assumptions.
A hypothetical elimination of export subsidies is imposed.  Results are presented in
comparison to the Outlook.  Thus, results are interpreted as what would occur in the medium-
term future if export subsidies were eliminated.  The projected consequences of eliminating
export subsidies are conditional upon the same assumptions as the Outlook itself, save that theresponse of policy-makers to the elimination of  export subsidies would be to allow supported
internal prices to fall.  The effects of export subsidy elimination on world market and internal
markets are demonstrated.
The report includes an annex which presents the export subsidy data and explains the method
of projecting the consequences of the export subsidy elimination.  The latter section relates
especially to the implementation in Aglink, th e partial equilibrium model maintained by the
Secretariat and co-operators in various OECD member countries.
Status :  Final draft in late 2000
"An analysis of officially support ed export credits in agriculture."
Outline
This project focuses on one policy that may distort export competition: officially supported
export credits in agriculture.  Officially supported export credits can take a variety of forms
and may offer an importer financial terms such that the total cost of acquiring the commodityG/AG/NG/S/16
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is reduced below alternative, private market costs.  The goal of this report is to estimate the
market effects of this export competition policy within a context of a broader programme of
work on evaluating and strengthening trade liberalization.
The report applies present value calculations to 1998 survey data.  The survey results are
made available by the Participants to the Export Credit Arrangement, the negotiators at the
OECD, under certain confidentiality requirements and cover their officially supported export
credit use and some details of their programmes.  The study also provides a similar analysis of
food aid in a case where there is an overlap with export credits.  The effects on world
commodity markets are examined in comparison to the OECD Agricultural Outlook for one
example.
Subsidy element estimates of Participants' programmes are presented in the main text,
whereas the annex focuses on data and method.  The annex first provides a literature review
on methods of analysing officially supported export credits' effects on markets.  After
selecting present value calculations as the appropriate method, data requirements must be
met.  The annex describes the derivation of importer interest rates following other studies.  Inaddition, certain parameters in the calculations are drawn from the survey, as described in the
annex.
Status :  Final draft in late 2000.
"Multifunctionality"
Outline
Following the meeting of Agriculture Ministers in March of 1998, the OECD has embarked
on an in-depth programme of work on multifunctionality.  It was necessary first to try to
define the concept and elaborate a common terminology, identify the key policy questions
and develop a framework for analysis that would be acceptable to all.  Discussions have
converged on three distinct but connected sets of issues.  The first concerns the production
relationships underlying the multiple outputs of agriculture and their externality and public
goods aspects.  The second comprises methodological and measurement issues related todemand for non-commodity outputs, procedures for specifying policy objectives and
evaluating progress while the third relates to the policy aspects, particularly to the
implications for policy reform and trade liberalization.
Status :  Final draft of first analytical phase late 2000.  A workshop will be held during the
first half of 2001.  The policy phase of the work, including international aspects such as
specific investigation of "green box" issues, will be undertaken during the course of 2001.
"Forward looking analysis of market access: preliminary results."
Outline
The project is intended to provide input to the next round of trade negotiations by examining
different options for liberalizing agricultural market access --one of the three pillars of theURAA.  To accomplish this task, an analysis will be undertaken with the Directorate's
AGLINK model following its modification to explicitly include tariff rate quotas and tariffs
employed by OECD member countries.  Data from Agricultural Market Access Database
(AMAD) are used to provide information on tariffs and quotas which are used in theG/AG/NG/S/16
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empirical analysis.  Effects on trade and prices from further expansion in quotas and
reductions in tariffs are reported for selected OECD countries and agricultural commodities.
Status :  Final draft mid-2001.
"Development of a tariff and TRQ database."
Outline
The project is intended to develop an Agricultural Market Access Database (AMAD) in co-
operation with other participants to be used in subsequent analysis of market access issuessuch as the implementation of the URAA and the extent that markets have been liberalized.
The database is also serving as a key input into the empirical work on a Forward looking
analysis of market access : preliminary results.  Co-operators to AMAD are: Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada, EU Commission-Agriculture Directorate-General, FAO, OECD, The
World Bank, UNCTAD, USDA-Economic Research Service.  The data will be publiclyavailable on the web and contains a broad set of information in a format intended to facilitate
reference and calculations.  Currently the database includes 50 countries and more will be
added.  Updates are planned at least once a year.
Status :  Completion date late 2000.
"State trading"
Outline
The activity underway on state trading has two aspects.  The first is conceptual and attempts
to define a framework within which state trading can be usefully analysed.  A number of
issues are emphasised including: the imperfectly competitive nature of many agricultural
markets; the need to distinguish the impact of  the state trading per se from the impact of
policies implemented by state traders on behalf of governments; the need to acknowledge that
a monopolistic state trader may not necessarily act in the same way as a monopolistic privatecompany; the heterogeneous nature of state trading throughout the world.
The second aspect is descriptive. It assembles available information about state trading in
agriculture from WTO notifications and other sources and summarises it around criteria that
are relevant in assessing the trade distorting impact of STEs.
Status :  Final draft in late 2000.
"Production effects of agri-environmental policy measures:  reconciling trade and
environmental objectives."
Outline
This study discusses linkages between agri-environmental policies and trade with a view to
inform policy debate on the impacts of agri-environmental standards on farm competitiveness
and the effects of agri-environmental programmes and payments on international agricultural
trade.  The two debates are closely related, as the first is primarily concerned with policy
measures that aim to reduce environmental pollution from farming activities, while the secondG/AG/NG/S/16
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centres around remuneration payments to farmers for the provision of agri-environmental
services.  The discussion in the paper is based on general economic welfare analysis that is
complemented by issue-specific conceptual and empirical investigations.
Status :  Final draft end 2000.
(iii) Work at the Planning Stage
"Impact of trade liberalization on the food s ecurity situation of developing countries."
Outline
The project will attempt to assess the role of OECD Member country agricultural policies on
the food security of developing countries.  The project will examine how further agricultural
trade liberalization (in terms of the three pillars of the URAA:  export subsidies, market
access and domestic support) affect the food security status of developing countries and sub-groupings (LDC/NFIDCs) as measured by  a set of food security indicators.
"An analysis of rents associated with TRQs."
Outline
Building on the projects concerning an Evaluation of the implementation of the URAA and a
Forward looking analysis of market access issues this project is intended to analyse and
quantify the quota rents that may have been generated as a result of the TRQ process and theevolution of these rents with different options for trade liberalization through changes in
TRQs.  By identifying countries and commodities where quota rents are prevalent, the project
will provide a glimpse of the potential resistance to further trade liberalization from vested
interests.G/AG/NG/S/16
Page 64
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
(i) Completed studies
1990
"Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round: Implications for Developing
Countries".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1990 (UNCTAD ITP/48).
The study is a quantitative analysis of the possible effects (i.e. world price effects and revenue
and welfare effects) in the context of the liberalization of trade in agriculture by major
agricultural trading nations (Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, and the United States) on the
markets for selected agricultural products.  The study attempts to assess the policy
implications for developing countries.
1995
"Identification of New Trading Opportunities Arising from the Implementation of the Uruguay
Round Agreements in Selected Sectors and Markets: Agriculture, textiles and clothing, and
other industrial products".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1995 (TD/B/WG.8/2 andTD/B/WG.8/2/Add.1).
A background paper to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Trading Opportunities in the New
International Trading Context (28 August 1995).   It looks at: (a) the nature of the AoA
commitments made by developed and developing countries; and (b) their implications forglobal agricultural trading opportunities.
"Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture by Major Developed
Countries".  Consultancy report by S. Tangermann, 1995 (UNCTAD/ITD/16).
The paper studies the issues regarding, inter alia , the effectiveness of the AoA in terms of its
implementations and the actual effect upon reductions of trade barriers.
"Translating Uruguay Round special provisions for least developed countries into concrete
action:  issues and policy requirements".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1995
(UNCTAD/B/WG.8/3 and Add. 1).
This report provides an overview of possible transitional effects of trade liberalization
(including the AoA) in the post-UR period on LDCs and discusses the various provisions in
favour of LDCs contained in the UR MTAs, including the Marrakesh decision on LDCs and
net food-importing developing countries.
"The Uruguay Round and international commodity trade and prices".  Report by the UNCTAD
secretariat, 1995 (TD/B/CN.1/30).
Analyzes the evolution of prices and trade of commodities to be expected in the light of the
results of the Uruguay Round, with particular emphasis on their implications for developing
countries, including their diversification prospects.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Prospects for the World Sugar Economy in Light of Uruguay Round Agreements".  Report by
the UNCTAD secretariat, 1995 (UNCTAD/COM/72).
Analyses the world market for sugar and the expected impact of the Uruguay Round
Agreements.
"Rice and the Uruguay Round Agreement:  Some expected outcomes".  Report by the
UNCTAD secretariat, 1995 (UNCTAD/COM/74).
Analyses the world market for rice and the expected impact of the Uruguay Round
Agreements.
"Recent Trends on the World Coffee Market".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1995
(UNCTAD/COM/59).
Analyses the world market for coffee and the expected impact of the Uruguay Round
Agreements.
"The Uruguay Round Agreement and the Cotton Market:  A preliminary overview".  Report
by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1995 (UNCTAD/COM/77).
Analyses the world market for cotton and the expected impact of the Uruguay Round
Agreements.
1996
"The Uruguay Round Agreement and the Meat Market: A preliminary overview".  Report by
the UNCTAD secretariat, 1996 (UNCTAD/COM/76).
Analyses the world market for meat and the expected impact of the Uruguay Round
Agreements.
"The Least Developed Countries: 1996 Report".   Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1996 (UN
publication, sales no. E.96.II.D.3).
Chapter II in Part Two of this report reviews the effects of the UR on LDCs and in particular
examines the consequences for the trade-diversification potential of LDCs.  It also discusses
the policy options available to LDCs in their attempts to maximise the net benefits from the
Round.
1997
"Trade Opportunities in the International Pr ocessed Horticultural Markets".  Consultancy
report by J.A. Giles, 1997 (UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.4).
The study suggests world trade opportunities for canned, dried and other processed tropical
products and horticultural products, examines technical considerations, such as drying,
freezing and canning, depicts market requirements, market access conditions, and key players
and proposes relevant recommendations.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Trade Opportunities for Processed Meat". Consultancy report by L.J. Colby, 1997
(UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.5).
The study depicts general factors affecting world trade in processed meat products, analyses
future market developments, market access conditions, constraints and opportunities in worldtrade and suggests strategy for development for the products in question.
"Trade Opportunities in the World Beverages Sector".  Consultancy report by LMC
International Ltd. Oxford, UK, 1997 (UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc.6).
The study assesses current situation in consumption of value added beverage products,
examines constraints to processing of beverages at origin, depicts successful examples of
origin processing and provides specific recommendations to governments and firms.  The
paper further provides suggestions as to trade opportunities, in the light of market access
conditions, for processed tropical beverages from producing countries with specific references
to coffee, cocoa, and tea.
"Opportunities for Vertical Diversification in the Food processing Sector in Developing
Countries".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1997 (TD/B/COM.1/EM.2/2).
The Report examines the market opportunities and particular constraints faced by developing
countries in diversifying into food processing in four major areas (horticulture, fish, meat, and
tropical beverages processing industries).  It highlights trade opportunities in specific
products and locations, and considers the prospects of diversifying into food processing in the
framework of world markets and the worldwide trading system.  It also presents successfulexperiences which may help governments and enterprises in devising and implementing their
strategies, policies and actions.
"Diversification in Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Role of Governments, Enterprises
and Institutions".  Report by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1997 (TD/B/COM.1/12).
The Report assesses the global trends, analyses the role of government in the diversification,
as well as enterprise sector strategies in the diversification process with particular reference to
different commodity sectors, in particular agriculture, in the new world trading system.
"The Uruguay Round and its Follow-Up:  Building a positive agenda for development".  Report
by the UNCTAD secretariat, 1997 (UNCTAD/ICTD/TED/2).
Report on an informal expert meeting convened by the Secretary General of UNCTAD to
consider the impact and dynamic effects of the Uruguay Round and its follow-up ondeveloping countries.
"World commodity trends and prospects" A/55/…
(This report has been prepared as an input to the fifty-fifth session of the General Assembly
of the United Nations. Its document number and date of issue are not known at this time).G/AG/NG/S/16
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The importance of commodities in world trade is declining and developing countries are
losing their share in world commodity trade, ev en for their traditional export products. Except
for a few successful countries, many of them have not been able to capture significant market
shares in, or even enter, the rapidly growing markets for high-value agricultural products and
processed items. Massive agricultural support in developed countries has been an importantfactor in this respect. The loss in shares and the failure to penetrate dynamic markets are
especially marked for African countries, least developed countries (LDC) and Asian
Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of countries. The historically extremely low prices for
commodities aggravate the negative impact of this situation on the economies of commodity-
dependent countries. Increasing yields have not counterbalanced these impacts for agricultural
products, and in metals and minerals, cost reductions have been substantial. Moreover, the
margins between international prices for commodities and the final prices paid by consumersare widening, and a smaller proportion of the value of the final product goes to the producing
countries.
The concentration on the demand side of world commodity markets is continuing, while state
participation in developing countries’ agricultural sectors is radically reduced. Mainly as aresult of the latter, the domestic provision of some crucial services has been hampered and
purchasing firms with large financial resources have been able to penetrate deep into the
marketing and production structures in developing countries. Although this opens up
opportunities for export-oriented enterprises in developing countries, it also generates
important new challenges for them requiring much more sophisticated business skills.
In this report, an attempt has been made to identify and review the above issues currently
affecting commodity markets and commodity-exporting developing countries. Section II
provides information on the declining trend and current collapse of commodity prices as well
as an overview of the evolution of world commodity trade since the 1970s. Section IIIreviews the changes in market structures, emphasizing the twin trends of concentration in
global markets and liberalization in producing countries, and examines the impact of these
trends on commodity exporting-countries. The final section reviews recent developments in
international cooperation on commodities.
1998
"International trade liberalization and implications for diversification in Africa",
ITCD/COM/1, 15 July 1998.
Many African countries are dependent on the production and exports of a limited number of
commodities, and diversification into non-traditional exports is an important objective of theirdevelopment programmes. Given their comparative advantage, (i) fresh and processed fruit,
vegetables and fish; (ii) textiles and clothing; and (iii) footwear and leather products appear as
the most attractive alternatives for many of these countries. Exporting  their traditional
products in processed forms is another priority concern in the context of diversification.
A recent development that has positive implications for expanding international trade, and
therefore widening the global opportunities for diversification, is the reduction in market
access barriers as a result of the WTO Agreements. The implications for African countries,
however, are mixed. First, in spite of the liberalization measures, the products for which these
countries have the best export opportunities face the highest tariff barriers in the mainimporting countries. Secondly, as a result of the reduction in MFN rates, preference margins
for African countries, stemming from their special status as LDC or ACP countries, have been
eroded. Thirdly, non-tariff measures continue to limit market access, particularly for the
products mentioned above.G/AG/NG/S/16
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Another constraint that needs to be faced by many countries in the new multilateral trading
environment concerns the limitations imposed by WTO Agreements on domestic measures,
such as export subsidies. Nevertheless, African countries, in particular LDCs, are exempted
from these for the time being. This gives them an advantage over many other countries, atleast in the short term. From a longer-ter m point of view, however, in the new era of
globalization and liberalization the most important considerations for diversification and
development are improving productivity, efficiency and managerial skills. This is, in short,
the improvement of competitiveness.
Prerequisites for achieving this improvement are many, ranging from a supportive
macroeconomic environment and the provision of infrastructure and support services toenterprise-level reforms intended to modernize technologies and the basic approach to
business. However, this report is confined  to reviewing the implications of the new
international trading environment resulting from the Uruguay Round on Africa 's
diversification through its impact on competitiveness. In doing so, the main elements of the
new international trading system, as they relate to products of particular concern to Africa, are
studied, the implications of this environment for governments and enterprises are examined,and the special place that foreign direct investment assumes in Africa, as a means for the
region to benefit from the opportunities opening up in the liberalizing world, and for the
diversification of African economies, are highlighted.
"WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement:  Issues for Developing Countries", Simonetta
Zarrilli, in  Positive Agenda and Future Trade Negotiations , UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/10.
Summary
Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures are typically applied to both domestically
produced and imported goods to protect human or animal life or health from food-borne risks;humans from animal and plant-carried diseases; plants and animals from pests or diseases;
and, the territory of a country from the spread of a pest or disease.  To reach these goals, SPS
measures may address the characteristics of final products, as well as how goods are
produced, processed, stored and transported.  They may take the form of conformity
assessment certificates, inspections, quarantine requirements, import bans, and others.  Whilesome of these SPS measures may result in trade restrictions, governments generally recognize
that some restrictions are necessary and appropriate to protect human, animal and plant life
and health.
Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures are not a new issue in global agricultural trade.
Because of the concern that SPS measures might be used for protectionist purposes, a specific
Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was negotiated during
the Uruguay Round.  The Agreement recognizes that countries have the right to maintain SPS
measures for the protection of the population and the agricultural sector.  However, it requires
them to base their SPS measures on scientific principles and not to use them as disguised
restrictions to trade.
Despite growing concern that certain sanitary and phytosanitary measures may be inconsistent
with the SPS Agreement and unfairly impede the flow of agricultural trade, developing
countries are not well positioned to address this issue.  They lack complete information on the
number of measures that affect their exports; they are not sure whether these measures are
consistent or inconsistent with the SPS Agreement; they do not have reliable estimates on theG/AG/NG/S/16
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impact such measures have on their exports; they experience serious problems on scientific
research, testing, conformity assessment and equivalency.  Developing countries are unable to
effectively participate in the international standard-setting process and, therefore, face
difficulties when requested to meet SPS measures in foreign markets based on international
standards.  Transparency-related requirements represent a burden for developing countries,while they are often unable to benefit from them, due to the lack of appropriate infrastructure.
The provision of adaptation to regional conditions, which would be of great benefit to
developing countries, has been little used because of the difficulties related with its scientific
side.  The provisions relating to special and differential treatment for developing countries
remain rather theoretical and apparently have not  materialized in any concrete step in their
favour.
It is worth noting that, according to Article 12.7, the operation and implementation of the SPS
Agreement was reviewed during 1998 and finalized by March 1999.  However, the review
was regarded as not exhaustive by Member countries, therefore it was agreed that at any time
countries could raise any issue for consideration by the SPS Committee.  Article 12.7
specifies that the Committee shall review the operation and implementation of the Agreementas the need arises.  This opens the way to a proactive approach by developing country
Members.
It is, however, important to keep in mind that, while all efforts should be made to limit the
protectionist use of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and for this purpose somemodifications of the text of the SPS Agreement may be worth considering, in many cases SPS
measures reflect genuine concerns to protect health and safety.  The present situation, where
consumers are increasingly requesting governments to be vigilant and make efforts to
minimize the risks of marketing and importing products which could jeopardize the health of
people or animals or harm agriculture, is the result of several episodes - such as the so-called"mad cow" disease or the recent case of contamination by dioxin of a large number of
agricultural products (and of the spreading of contamination through international trade) -
where consumers have felt that health and safety were at risk.  The spreading of the use of
genetically-modified seeds and the perception that GM crops may negatively affect human
and animal health and the environment contribute to a strong request for strict measures in the
sanitary and phytosanitary field.  For developing countries the best option is, therefore, to
become able to respond to the exigencies which are emerging in their target markets as wellas to the wishes and expectations of final consumers, by providing good quality and safe
products.  This implies building up knowledge, skills and capabilities.  Strengthening
domestic capacities in the SPS domain would also help developing countries to identify
products that they may wish to keep out of their markets because of the potential negative
impact on local people’s health, animal health or the environment.  Developed countries andthe relevant international organizations should be willing to support developing countries in
this endeavour.
"Uruguay Round Results and the Emerging Trade Agenda:  Quantitative-based Analyses from
the Development Perspective", 01/08/98, UNCTAD PUBL/98/23.
Summary
The studies in this volume can be divided into those which deal with analyses of the impact
and dynamic effects of the Uruguay Round and its follow-up on developing countries (in the
areas of agriculture, textiles and clothing and services), and those which cover new and
emerging issues (such as regionalism, environment, labour standards, and competition policy)G/AG/NG/S/16
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on the multilateral trade agenda.  The approach is essentially quantitative, and while the
results are tentative in nature, they nevertheless provide stimulating insights.
1999
"Preparing for Future Multilateral Trade Negotiations;  Issues and Research Needs from a
Development Perspective", 01/06/99, UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/6.
Summary
The report is based on the documentation presented and the subsequent discussions at the
ad hoc Expert Group Meeting of the Secretary-General of UNCTAD held on 21 and22 September 1998 at the Palais des Nations, Geneva.  The contributions made at the meeting
were elaborated upon and complimented by additional supporting material. Each chapter is
devoted to one of the possible elements of the "positive agenda" discussed at the meeting:
Agriculture; Services;  Electronic Commerce;  Anti-Dumping; Standards;  Industrial Tariffs;
The Trips Agreement; Trade and Competition;  Trade and Investment;  and Special andDifferential Treatment.
2000
"Subsidies, countervailing measures and developing countries: With a focus on the Agreement
on subsidies and countervailing Meas ures", UNCTAD/DITC/COM/23, 4 July 2000.
This paper attempts to provide a better understanding of the ASCM in the interest of
developing countries, which are often ill-equipped to make full use of the benefits accorded tothem by the Agreement. The issues addressed in this paper include the scope and the structure
of the Agreement, categories of subsidies, the mechanisms for implementing countervailing
measures and dispute settlement. Although, the ASCM applies only to industrial subsidies
while agricultural subsidies are subject to the provisions of the Agreement on Agriculture,
reference is made to this latter, given the importance of agriculture and commodity-based
national agricultural policies in developing countries. This is done in order to highlight the
differences governing the use of subsidies and countervailing measures in agriculture and inother sectors. Also discussed are suggestions for improvements to the ASCM that would be of
interest to developing countries, and the debate with respect to the relationship between
subsidy elimination in developed countries and the  "multifunctionality" of agriculture.
"Interests and Options of Developing and Least-Developed Countri es in a New Round of
Multilateral Trade Negotiations", T. Ademola Oyejide , G-24 Discussion Paper Series , No. 2,
05/01/00, UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/2.
Summary
Negotiating interests and options have to be identified against the background of the possible
agenda of a new round. Several important elements of this agenda are codified in what is
referredto as the "built-in agenda", includin g:  (i) an assessment of the implementation of
UruguayRound Agreements (URAs);  (ii) specific reviews of particular agreements that were
mandatedby the Uruguay Round; and, as the core of a new round, (iii) new negotiations on
agriculture,GATS, and TRIPs.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"The Millenium Round and Developing Countr ies: Negotiating Strategies and Areas of
Benefits", Arvind Panagariya, G-24 Discussion Paper Series , No. 1, 03/01/00,
UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/1.
Summary
Written prior to the WTO conference in Seattle, this paper identifies negotiating strategies
and areas of benefits from a new multilateral round of trade negotiations for developing
countries.  Although the attempts to launch a round at Seattle failed, the strategy outlined in
the paperremains relevant, should fresh efforts be made to launch a round.  From the
viewpoint of overall strategy, developing countries should limit the agenda for anew round to
the built-in Uruguay Round (UR), agenda plus trade liberalization in industrial goods.  Fromthe long-run perspective, they need to commit substantial human and financial resources to
the creation of native research and negotiating capacity on WTO-related issues.  The areas
covered in the paper include trade liberalization, multilateral agreement on investment,
dispute settlement, anti-dumping, and labour and environmental standards. Expected benefits
from liberalization in industrial products to developing countries justify their inclusionin thenew round, even though they are not a part of  the UR built-in agenda.  In agriculture,
developing countries must watch out against the proliferation of sanitary and phytosanitary
(SPS) measures, which threaten to turn into the most important barrier against their
agricultural exports as this sector is liberalized.
"Impact of the Reform Process in Agriculture on LDCs and Net Food-Importing Developing
Countries and  Ways to Address Their Concerns in Multilateral Trade Negotiations",
TD/B/COM.1/EM, 20 June 2000.
(Background note by the UNCTAD secretariat to the Expert Meeting on Impact of the Reform
Process in Agriculture on LDCs and Net Food-Im porting Developing Countries and Ways to Address
their Concerns in Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Geneva, 24-26 July 2000).
Executive summary
During the Uruguay Round negotiations on agriculture, there was concern that the
implementation of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), and particularly the implementation
of the commitments on the reductions of export subsidies, could have negative (short-term)
impacts on least developed countries (LDCs) and net food-importing developing countries
(NFIDCs), mainly through increases in food import bills resulting from expected agricultural
price rises.  With a view to minimizing this concern, the member States of the World TradeOrganization (WTO) agreed "the Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative
Effects of the Reform Programme on least developed countries and net food-importing
developing countries" as a part of the Uruguay Round Agreements.
This background note suggests that the implementation of the Decision has not been
satisfactory, largely for three reasons.  First, the Decision has no operational mechanism for
carrying out the support measures specified in it. Second, there has been no attempt within the
WTO framework to systematically estimate the impact of the implementation of the AoA on
LDCs and NFIDCs, although some of the suppor t measures described in the Decision appear
to be dependent on such estimations.  Third, there were very few substantive discussions onthe country-specific impact of the AoA (e.g. an increase in food import bills as a result of
elimination of price discounts received from exporting countries before 1995) during the
WTO's monitoring of the Decision, although the impact of certain aspect of the AoA could beG/AG/NG/S/16
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recognized only at the country-specific level, even when they appeared insignificant at the
global level.
This background note studies the impact of th e AoA on LDCs and NFIDCs at an aggregated
level, and suggests issues that may be discussed at the Expert Meeting with regard to possibleways of addressing concerns of LDCs and NFIDCs arising from their country-specific
experiences of the reform process in agriculture.
"The Interests of Developing Countries in the Next Round of WTO Agricultural Negotiations",
Tim Josling and Stefan Tangermann, in Positive Agenda and Future Trade Negotiations,
UNCTAD/ITCD/TSB/10 .
Conclusions
In assessing the interests of developing countries in the specific agenda for the new
agricultural trade negotiations there are two kinds of questions to ask.  The first is whether themeasure contemplated, if implemented by others, has acceptable or beneficial consequences
for developing countries or whether it tends to harm their interests?  The second question, the
other side of the coin, is whether developing countries themselves can accept the same
measure applied in their own economies?  Obvi ously the answer to these two questions may
differ.  This points up the key strategic issue for the developing countries as they approach thenext round of agricultural negotiations.  How can one support the continuation of desirable
reforms in agricultural trade without at the same time paying a high price in terms of domestic
policy autonomy and the structure of preferential access currently enjoyed.  One traditional
way out of this dilemma is through "special and differential treatment" (S&D). I f changes
that are implied by a particular measure would be appropriate for developed countries but lessapplicable, or difficult to implement, for developing countries then S&D could be invoked.
But there has always been an implicit cost to S&D, which inevitably shows up in terms of less
influence over the agenda for those countries that choose to opt out of, or delay, certain
disciplines.  It may well be the time to redefine S&D to identify a small set of trade policy
areas where developing countries have particular difficulties, and to forego the broader use of
the concept as a way of delaying adjustment.  Developing countries are the emerging markets
that developed countries require for continued trade expansion, in food as in many othergoods.  Developing countries generally stand to gain from this process of trade expansion.  It
may be more advantageous to participate fully in the trade liberalization, ensuring that the
products and markets of interest to developing countries are included, rather that take
advantage of "opt out" provisions which essentially allow others to set the agenda. It is
apparent that the interests of all developing countries are not alike.  The premise of this paperis that there are enough similarities of interest to define a "developing country" position on
the major issues, even though the importance of individual issues may differ among countries
and regions.  The success of any strategy that is developed will depend on whether such a
coincidence of interest exists.  Developing countries will generally benefit from a continued
liberalization in agricultural markets, involving further reduction of tariffs, an elimination ofexport subsidies and the tightening of constraints on domestic support in the industrial
countries.  Many of the problems of world trade in agricultural products stem from the
policies pursued in industrial countries to support commodity prices.  Developing countries
have borne the brunt of the instability and unreliability of agricultural markets.  Support for
further efforts at reform would be in the general interest of developing countries.  Developingcountries that have not yet completed the reform of their domestic and trade policies to take
advantage of global markets and the decline of preferences will face a challenge from the
continuation of reform.  In these cases countries should seek time to coordinate this reform
with WTO commitments.  The benefits to the individual country from the continuedG/AG/NG/S/16
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improvement of market access and the curbing of disruptive subsidies are proportional to the
extent of involvement in world markets.  Domes tic reforms thus play an essential role in the
trade negotiation strategy of developing countries.  Current preferential systems should be
reviewed both with a view to deriving lasting benefit from the access opportunities and with
the prospect of inevitably declining levels of preference.  Some erosion of preferences isinevitable, but this will be offset by the fact that such preferences are most valuable on
products where protection is high (for example, sugar).  In such cases the pace of
liberalization is likely to be slow.  As the value of such preferences will decline over time it is
not worth expending a large amount of negotiating "capital" in preserving them at current
levels.  Settling the issue of the role of preferences in the trade system is essential to regain
the stability needed for investment and growth.  Regional trade agreements offer a parallel
trade policy path that should eventually lead to more open world markets.  Developingcountries should encourage the inclusion of agriculture in these agreements and should ensure
that external protection is low enough that significant trade diversion does not occur.  The
conversion of current preferential agreements to reciprocal FTAs could be both a way to
resolve the issue of preferences within the multilateral system and of strengthening regional
cooperation and market integration.  Developing countries in the same region (and inparticular when members of the same trade bloc) should consider pooling resources and
negotiating positions in matters relating to agriculture, so as to avoid duplication of effort and
under-representation at meetings.  Developing countries should consider how to make use of
established groups of countries, such as the Cairns Group, to maximize their effectiveness in
the negotiations.  If a parallel group of "food importing" countries were to be formed, it couldbe useful to agree on a strategy with the Cairns Group.  Two or more competing groups of
developing countries would effectively limit the impact on the agricultural negotiations.
"Agricultural Trade Barriers, Trade Negotiations , and the Interests of Developing Countries",
Hans Binswanger, Ernst Lutz, TD(X)/RT.1/8.  (Paper prepared for the High-level Table on
Trade and Development: Directions for the Twenty-first Century, 12 February 2000).
Executive Summary
Rural growth is necessary for reducing rural poverty.  But rural regions cannot generate
sustained growth in agricultural demand unless they trade with cities, neighbouring countries,and the rest of the world.  That is the first problem.  The second is that world trade in
agricultural and agro-industrial products ha s grown slower than general trade - and
developing countries have not been able to capture as large a share of trade growth in
agriculture as in industry.  This has constrained agricultural growth and diversification in the
developing world.  The slower growth in agricu ltural trade - and the difficulties of developing
countries in conquering a share of that growth - is not surprising.  Both developed and
developing countries have faced massive barriers to agricultural trade over this century.  Their
joint negative impact on agricultural growth rates in the developing world is a major reason
for the slow progress in rural development and rural poverty reduction.  Developing countries
have reduced the anti-agricultural barriers in their policy regimes considerably.  But thedeveloped countries’ agricultural policy reforms and the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations
made only a modest start in dismantling barriers to agricultural and agro-industrial trade.
These constraints to agricultural trade - particularly the agricultural protectionism in industrial
countries - continue to inflict enormous welfare losses on the developing world, exceeding
those from restrictions in textile trade by a factor of three.  (They also continue to inflict largewelfare losses on developed countries.)  And they more than negate the grant aid provided.  A
key question for UNCTAD to consider is: can the barriers to international trade in agriculture
and agro-industrial products be reduced far enough and fast enough to enable a poverty
reduction strategy for the rural developing world to be based primarily on agricultural growthG/AG/NG/S/16
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and rural non-farm employment rather than on a heavy reliance on social programmes and
social safety net?  In looking at policy constraints to the growth of agricultural demand, much
has been said about the counter-productive interventions and barriers of developing countries.
Good progress has been made in dismantling these interventions, but many interventions
remain.  We argue here that developing countries have to continue their agricultural policyreforms.  However, the main focus has to be on the constraints on agricultural trade imposed
by developed countries - and on the prospects for reducing them in the forthcoming round of
WTO negotiations.  Export subsidies should be outlawed, domestic producer subsidies
reduced, access under tariff quotas increased, tariff escalation on processed agricultural
products removed, and the level and the dispersion of bound tariffs on agricultural imports
reduced. UNCTAD should define its functions a nd work programme in partnership with the
WTO, FAO, IMF and the World Bank.  These should include:
• Providing a forum for developing countries on trade and related issues;
• Maintaining trade-related databases and providing information;
• Undertaking high-quality analyses;
• Providing technical assistance in norms and standards and in dispute settlement;
• Advocating better market access in industrial countries;
• Helping to build coalitions and seeking common developing country positions in
multilateral trade negotiations.
"International trade in genetically modified organisms and multilateral negotiations: A new
dilemma for developing countries", Simonetta Zarrilli, GE./….  (Unedited paper.)
Executive summary
In order to be able to export their products, developing countries increasingly have to be able
to prove that their goods comply with the standards and regulations of the importing
countries.  Standards and regulations are aimed at ensuring, inter alia , that domestically
produced and imported products are safe, of good quality, and have as little detrimental effect
on the environment as possible.  For quite long time developing country main concern in this
field has been that their trade partners could use measures meant to protect health, safety andthe environment, or to ensure high product-quality for protectionist purposes.  Because of
this, developing countries have tried to be vigilant against the imposition of unnecessarily
strict regulations, and have opposed modifications of the Agreements on Technical Barriers to
Trade (TBT) and on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS).  They
have also opposed modifications of Article XX of the General Agreement on Tariffs andTrade (GATT), which deals with general exceptions to GATT obligations.  These
modifications were proposed by several developed countries to better accommodate non-trade
concerns in the multilateral trading system, especially those related to environmental
protection.
However, the situation seems to have become more complex lately.  Developing country
preoccupations related to market access are still very much present, however, these countries
are now facing a new challenge related to trade in products whose safety and possible
environmental impacts are currently not well known: the genetically modified organisms
(GMOs) and products from them. GMO means an organism in which the genetic material has
been altered in a way that does not occur naturally by mating and/or natural recombination
4  
                                                     
4 This definition is included in the EEC Directive 90/220.  See footnote 15.G/AG/NG/S/16
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Most developing countries have not yet passed legislation in this field and believe that their
limited scientific capacities, their recurring problems in checking products at the border, and
their restricted ability to make their own assessment of the risks and benefits involved do not
allow them to manage properly the challenges that GMOs pose.  They have, therefore, called
for the establishment of international rules in this field.  The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety,which represents the multilaterally agreed response to these and other non-trade related
concerns, once in force will provide the legal framework for international trade in GMOs to
take place, at least among parties, although its relationship with the multilateral trade
disciplines set out in the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements is unclear.  The
Protocol gives a rather large discretionary power to importing countries about the goods they
are willing to import.  The trade framework established by the Cartagena Protocol is,
therefore, rather different from the one that developing countries have traditionally supportedwithin the WTO.
There are, therefore, two sets of challenges facing developing countries.  The first is to
reconcile the preoccupations related to market access with those related to the need of
protecting human and animal health and the environment from potentially harmful productswhich could be introduced through international trade.  The other is that WTO Members may
reach the conclusion that a decision about modifying the multilateral trade rules to better
accommodate environment- and health-related concerns cannot be delayed any longer.  This
could happen because of the amplitude of concerns related to biotechnology, a certain lack of
clarity in the Cartagena Protocol and the already existing divergent interpretations of it, andcountries' unwillingness to leave the solution of c onflicts in this area in the hands of the WTO
panels and Appellate Body.
There are at least four not mutually exclusiv e fora within the WTO where issues related to
trade in biotechnology products could be addressed or have already been addressed, directlyor indirectly: the Committees on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and on Technical
Barriers to Trade; the Committee on Trade and Environment; the Committee on Agriculture
(negotiations on agriculture started in March 2000, according to Article 20 of the Agreement
on Agriculture); and, in case a new round of multilateral negotiations is launched, an ad-hoc
working group established within the WTO.  However, the way in which international trade
in GMOs is going to be regulated will likely have an impact which goes beyond the specific
sector. If the WTO system, for instance, will in the future allow a more flexible interpretation
of the precautionary principle to respond to the health and environmental concerns related to
trade in GMOs, the same flexible interpretation will probably apply in other fields, like trade
in conventional agricultural products.  If, because of the economic interests involved, an
effort is made to clarify the relationship between the trade rules included in the Cartagena
Protocol and those emerging from specific WT O agreements, the same approach will likely
apply to other multilateral agreements containing trade rules.  Each forum of negotiations has
different characteristics and discussions may reach different results according to where they
are carried on.
Discussions on GMOs are also taking place in multilateral fora other than the WTO, such as
the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, and the FAO.
These fora offer some considerable advantages as compared to the WTO: they are specialized
and have technical expertise on the issue at stake; they are also fora where developing
countries' concerns are usually heard with sympathetic ears.  Decisions taken there may,
nevertheless, be challenged at the WTO, if a WTO Member believes that the decisions takenin other fora are affecting its market access rights.G/AG/NG/S/16
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Developing countries may wish to get ready to become active players in the debate that may
start on these issues to ensure that their mu lti-faceted concerns are taken into account and
their weaknesses are recognized and addressed.
(ii) Work in progress
"Simulation of various tariff-cutting formulas on  market access in agricultural products".  (To
be completed 1998.)
The study will quantitatively assess the implications for the export opportunities of
developing countries of various tariff-cutting formulas that could be applied to agriculturalproducts.  The study will also consider the implication of possible changes in tariff quota
quantities in conjunction with changes to in- and above-quota rates.
"Simulation of the trade and price effects of further reduction commitments as part of the
continuation of the reform process in agriculture using UNCTAD's Agricultural trade policy
simulation model (ATPSM)".  (To be completed 1998.)
Using the ATPSM and the most recent trade statistics, this study will simulate the trade and
price effects of alternative scenarios of further reduction commitments in domestic support,export subsidies and agricultural tariffs.
"Assessing the Results of  General Equilibrium Studies of Multilateral Trade Negotiations",
Joseph François, in  Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series , No. 3,
UNCTAD/ITCD/TAB/4.  (Forthcoming - November 2000.)
Abstract
This paper is about what we can actually say about the Uruguay Round (UR) four years after
implementation began, and how this compares to the calibration-based assessments that
circulated at the end of the UR.  The ultimate go al is to draw lessons on how to approach the
assessment of the next round so that useful insights are extracted and misperceptions avoided.
The paper first offers an overview of the CGE models employed or referenced by
international organizations at the close of the UR.  This is followed by a summary of the
results of those models and a discussion of actual experience from UR implementation. Some
conclusions from this exercise, and recommendations for assessment of the next Round (or ifnot technically another "round" of negotiations, then for the next sets of multilateral
negotiations), are then discussed.
"What Can Developing Countries Infer from the Uruguay Round Models for Future
Negotiations", John Whalley, in Policy Studies in International Trade and Commodities Study
Series , No. 4, UNCTAD/ITCD/TAB/6.  (Forthcoming - November 2000.)
Abstract
This paper discusses the results from general equilibrium trade models executed towards the
end of the Uruguay Round, reporting both aggregate and regional gains.  These results were
generated some five years ago, and were important to the debates at the end of the UruguayG/AG/NG/S/16
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Round as to what would be the foregone gains were the Round not to conclude.  The paper
argues that there are substantial, and at times hard to explain inconsistencies across model
results.  One model shows most of the gains come from agricultural liberalization, another
from textiles, and yet another from tariff cuts.  One model shows developing countries
account for around 10 per cent of the total gain, another shows them to gain over 50 per cent.One model shows developing countries losing from elimination of the MFA, another shows
them as large gainers.  One model shows that imperfectly competitive and scale economy
effects double global gains, another shows almost no impact.  These differences occur even
where similar data sets, and benchmark years are used, and are hard to explain on the basis of
parametric specifications for models seemingly used, though these are frequently poorly
exposited.  The paper also discusses the verification of models relative to behaviour since the
Round concluded, expressing scepticism as to its feasibility for reasons set out in the paper.  Italso attempts to discuss what, if any, are the implications for the developing countries, and the
possible ways forward in making these models more useable to developing countries for the
next round of trade negotiations.
"An Integrated Approach to Agricultural Trade and Development Issues:  Exploring the
Welfare and Distribution Issues", Robert Scollay, in Analytical Studies on International Trade
Issues: The Development Perspective , UNCTAD.  (Forthcoming - 2001.)
Summary
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis has become a well-established methodology
for the estimation of trade and welfare effects resulting from trade liberalisation.  This paper
reports on the possibility of extending the use of CGE analysis to explore important issues
related to the link between trade and development,  in particular the impact of tradeliberalisation on income distribution, and the ways in which both the welfare and distribution
effects of trade liberalisation may be modified by various development-related policies. These
possibilities are illustrated by reference to research on agricultural trade liberalisation in the
APEC region, but it is suggested that the approach used may have more general application.
The paper begins with a brief backgrounding of the APEC initiatives which are the subject of
the research used in the paper for illustrative purposes.  A brief outline of the use of CGEtechniques in modelling trade and welfare effects then follows.  The conventional use of these
techniques to analyse trade and welfare effects of potential APEC trade liberalisation is then
outlined, with particular reference to agricultural trade liberalisation.  This leads into a
discussion of political economy problems and development concerns associated with
agricultural trade liberalisation, and the importance of taking account of distributional effects.A proposal known as the APEC Food System wh ich emerged within APEC to address these
concerns is then briefly outlined, and the paper then describes and discusses in some detail the
way in which CGE techniques were applied to analysing the distributional implications of the
APEC Food System proposal.  The paper concludes with a discussion of the results obtained,
which are illustrative only, and their implications.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Issues at Stake for Developing Countries in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations", Harry de
Gorter, in Analytical Studies on International Trade Issues:  The Development Perspective ,
UNCTAD.  (Forthcoming.)
Summary
This paper outlines issues for developing countries to address in order to ensure meaningful
support reduction commitments in agriculture.  The effects of increasing the quota or
decreasing the tariffs are complex because it depends on the initial regime that can switch
with liberalization because of the interaction effects between tariffs and the quota.
Incorporating the realities of over-quota imports, quota under-fill, preferential quotas and
tariff rates, and non-notified quotas complicates the analysis.  Hence, there is no simple rulefor negotiators to follow in maximizing the trade liberalizing effects of market access
reduction commitments. "Front loading" and banking of unused subsidies circumvented
export subsidy reduction commitments.  Conditions for when the volume versus  value limits
on export subsidies are determined in the static and dynamic market cases.  No commitments
on the per unit export subsidy allows circumvention of volume limits by increasing the perunit subsidy on a lower proportion of total exports.  A rule should be implemented that has
the volume limit applied to total exports, even if only a part received export subsidies.  Export
subsidies should be redefined to include, inter alia , "consumer-only" financed export
subsidies.
Measures for domestic support are problematic because of conflation with border support,
market prices are not equal to support prices, and the world reference price is fixed.
Arguments are made for why some direct payments to farmers in the green box should be
reclassified.  A flashing amber  box is recommended for policies that are domestic trade
support policies and are not conflated with border support.  This new measure should bemeasured on a commodity specific basis to disallow any shifting of support across
commodities, and criteria should be developed to give credits for output reducing measures.
"Analyzing the Economics of Trade Liberalization with Tariff-Quotas in the Uruguay Round
Agreement on Agriculture", Ulla Kask, Harry de Gorter.  (Forthcoming.)
Abstract
This paper develops a comprehensive methodology to model 2-tier tariff rate import quotas in
the Uruguay Round’s Agreement on Agriculture.   In addition to analyzing the basic
economics of liberalizing import quotas, in-quota tariffs and out-of-quota tariffs, the analysis
develops an economic model that has quota under-fill endogenous.  An analytical frameworkto analyze the impacts of preferential tariffs (including GSP), preferential quotas, non-notified
quotas, over-quota imports, and non-quota imports is also developed.  A method to measure
the distribution of quota rents between importing and exporting countries is advanced, which
includes the effects of preferential quotas and tariffs.
Empirical examples are given for a host of situations that a modeler or anyone analyzing the
economics of trade liberalization with tariff quotas in agriculture needs to take into account.
Problems of data sources, interpretation of data that is published, aggregation problems for
commodity groups and associated problems are illustrated with empirical examples.G/AG/NG/S/16
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WORLD BANK
(i) Completed studies
1990
"Bangladesh - Review of the experience with Policy Reforms in the 1980s" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
This report outlines the genesis and evolution of policy-based lending in Bangladesh, the
critical issues in the late 1970s, and early Government initiatives.  It provides an assessment
of the objectives, strategy, policy instruments and design of the action programs enacted.  The
implementation and outcome of the policy reforms initiated in agriculture, industry and trade,
the financial sector, and in capital budget planning and management are also detailed.  Thereport dwells on the experience with the disbursement and utilization of IDA funds, including
the effectiveness of conditionality and tranching.  It draws on the lessons of experience and
suggests possibilities for strengthening certain aspects of the Bank's decision-making process
and approach toward macroeconomic and sectoral issues.  Finally, the executive summary
provides an overview of the effectiveness and outcome of the policy reforms enacted. Itassesses the sustainability of the adjustment effort, a core of outstanding issues requiring
Government attention, and presents the main lessons and recommendations.
"Malawi - Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
The primary objective of the Agricultural Sector Adjustment Credit Project is to support the
Government's ongoing adjustment program to achieve sustainable growth, food security, andreduce poverty.  To these ends, the credit will support measures aimed at reducing poverty
through agricultural growth. Past adjustment operations helped to improve external and
internal balances.  To maintain the competitiveness of exports, the project will continue
reforms to maintain a flexible exchange rate policy, improve export incentives, and expand
trade liberalization.  The credit will also continue reforms to ensure adequate producerincentives and improve marketing efficiency, by expanding the role of the private sector.  The
project will support new policy changes to address the key structural constraints in agriculture
by:  (a) shifting the research policy and budget to develop high-yielding maize varieties;  (b)
changing laws to allow smallholders to grow high-value cash-crops, burley tobacco, and
increase prices of smallholder tobacco;  (c) halting the transfer of land from smallholder areas
to estates;  (d) improving fertilizer use and distribution efficiency;  and (e) improving land use
efficiency in estates.  The project will also support further new initiatives to:  (a) improveefficiency in agricultural public expenditures;  (b) implement pilot schemes to develop ways
of targeting fertilizer subsidies and credit to the poor;  and (c) strengthen monitoring
capabilities of the adjustment pro
"Hungary - Integrated Agricultur al Export Project" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
As Hungarian agriculture competes with temperate climate countries of the northern
hemisphere, it must develop a functional domestic market structure which sends clear signalsG/AG/NG/S/16
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to the farming and agroprocessing sectors in the form of higher prices for quality products.
The objectives of the Integrated Agricultural Export Project include:  (a) provision of quality
food products for export;  and (b) making agricultural producers more efficient by providing
additional financial resources to private, small scale farmers.  The project will provide a line
of credit to finance investments by private farmers, agricultural and agroprocessingenterprises to improve their operations.  Investment funds will finance planting material,
breeding and fattening stock, equipment for improvement of crop and livestock production,
and storage and commodity handling facilities.  The project also includes important
agricultural policy initiatives which support privitization of farming assets and liberalization
of prices and trade.
O'Mara, Gerald T.  "Analyzing the Effects of U.S. Agricultural Policy on Mexican Agricultural
Markets using the MEXAGMKTS Model" (Vol. 1) .  Policy, Research, and External Affairs
working paper;  No. WPS 447.
Abstract
This paper uses results from simulations of the FAIRMODEL, USAGMKTS, and
MEXAGMKTS models to analyze the effects of changes in US agricultural policy on
Mexican agricultural markets.  The author concludes that under a scenario of trade
liberalization for Mexico, Mexican agricultural production, prices, and trade are quitesensitive to agricultural policy changes in the US.  The genesis of the research project was the
perception that agricultural policies in Mexico (and many other countries) are often second
best responses to the negative side effects of broad economic policies aimed primarily at
macroeconomic and international trade objectives.  The paper also discusses the role of
agriculture in Mexican economic policy, and MEXAGMKTS, FAIR and USAGMKTSmodels.  The paper includes an analysis of the sensitivity of Mexican agricultural markets to
US agricultural policy and a brief summary of the implications of the results.
Koester, Ulrich and Bale, Malcolm D.  "The Common Agricultural Policy:  A Review of its
Operation and Effects on Developing Countries" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
Policy changes in the European Community (EC), the world's largest importer and, since
1986, exporter of agricultural commodities, may have significant effects on world markets
and developing countries.  This article investigates the EC's Common Agricultural Policy(CAP), its history, mode of operation, and the prospects and possibilities for change, to bring
out the implications of the policy for developing country exporters and importers.  The
hypothesis that evolves differs from that of ma ny studies in proposing that an agricultural
liberalization in the EC is unlikely to effect any great change in world market prices over the
first few years.  Developing countries' principal gain from a liberalization of the CAP wouldderive from increased stability of world market prices, improved access to export markets,
and a reduction in the uncertainty currently caused by discretionary measures in the EC.G/AG/NG/S/16
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1991
"China - Options for Reform in the Grain Sector" (Vol.1).  A World Bank Country Study).
Abstract
Frustrated by the inability to raise rural living standards substantially after 30 years of
socialist revolution, China initiated in late 1 978 its well known rural reforms, which advanced
the transformation of agriculture from the precepts of central planning to a market-driven
system.  In response, the real value of gross output in agriculture doubled between 1978-89,
and this was accompanied by a considerable diversification in China's agricultural production
and food consumption patterns.  Owing to higher per capita incomes and increasingly urbanepreferences, the importance of table grains and low-quality vegetables in the Chinese diet
diminished and was supplemented with increased meat intake, a diverse array of fruits and
higher quality table grains that rarely became available through the state commercial system.
China, in 1991, finds itself at a crossroads in agricultural policy-making.  While the
considerably less regulated activities in the livestock sector and cash and industrial croppingwere responsible for the still commendable growth of 3.5 - 4.5 p.a., performance in the grain
sector has been uneven.  It is thus the contention of this report that further liberalization in the
grains sector should be the centerpiece of future agricultural reforms.
"Philippines - Rural Finance Project" (Vol.1).
Abstract
The objective of the Rural Finance Project is to enhance the policy framework governing the
rural financial sector, in order to provide more efficient and active credit support to rural
areas.  The project will:  (a) provide investment and seasonal production credit to support
private agricultural/rural investments to increase production, incomes, and employment;  (b)
induce financial institutions to attend the credit needs of the rural areas more efficiently, and
to facilitate better access to commercial, saving, and rural banks in rurals areas;  and (c)
enhance the access of rural borrowers to formal credit sources.  The project will provide a
second stage of support to the Agricultural Loan Fund (ALF) rediscounting facility.Enhancing the operations of financial institutions in rural areas will be achieved through
further liberalization of banking policies concerning opening new branches in rural areas,
adjusting the current limit on maximum shareholding by single investors in a distressed rural
bank to enable the mobilization of the additional required capital, and inducing banks in good
standing to invest in rural banks with an equity deficiency.  Enhancing farmer access to
formal credit sources will be carried out through the strengthening of two existing
insurance/guarantee institutions; training of cooperative staff; and designing and
implementing pilot/experimental projects to develop new and efficient credit delivery systems
and technical assistance to rural areas.
1992
"Bangladesh - Food Policy Review:  Adjusting to the Green Revolution" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
Few countries approach food security with as much a sense of urgency as Bangladesh.  An
estimated 10 to 15 per cent of the population is at severe nutritional risk, while the majority of
the population faces hunger, deprivation and se asonal food insecurity.  Government foodG/AG/NG/S/16
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policy seeks to ensure an affordable food supply for poor consumers while simultaneously
providing adequate pricing incentives for agricultural production.  This report suggests that
the time has come to allow the private sector to play a larger role in stabilizing foodgrain
prices and ensuring food security.  The public sector can then work more effectively in
response to catastrophic events such as cyclones and floods, targeting assistance to those atgreatest nutritional risk.  A medium-term policy framework is proposed to achieve these
goals, and it calls for:  (i) abolition of past restrictions on private sector domestic trade,
transport and storage of foodgrains;  (ii) liberalization of external trade in foodgrains;
(iii) adoption of a trade-based price stabilization mechanism which relies on private sector
trade and a public sector import/export stabilization fund to keep rice prices within an
acceptable range; (iv) phasing out of ration channels; (v) expansion of self-targeting
distribution programs;  and (vi) greater government accountability for food aid and financialflows.
"Bangladesh - Food Policy Review:  Adjusting to the Green Revolution" (Vol. 2).
Abstract
Few countries approach food security with as much a sense of urgency as Bangladesh.  An
estimated 10 to 15 per cent of the population is at severe nutritional risk, while the majority of
the population faces hunger, deprivation and se asonal food insecurity.  Government food
policy seeks to ensure an affordable food supply for poor consumers while simultaneously
providing adequate pricing incentives for agricultural production.  This report suggests that
the time has come to allow the private sector to play a larger role in stabilizing foodgrain
prices and ensuring food security.  The public sector can then work more effectively in
response to catastrophic events such as cyclones and floods, targeting assistance to those atgreatest nutritional risk. A medium-term policy framework is proposed to achieve these goals,
and it calls for:  (i) abolition of past restrictions on private sector domestic trade, transport and
storage of foodgrains; (ii) liberalization of external trade in foodgrains;  (iii) adoption of a
trade-based price stabilization mechanism which relies on private sector trade and a public
sector import/export stabilization fund to keep rice prices within an acceptable range;  (iv)
phasing out of ration channels;  (v) expansion of self-targeting distribution programs;  and
(vi) greater government accountability for food aid and financial flows.
"Bangladesh - Selected Issues in External Comp etitiveness and Economic Efficiency" (Vol.1).
Abstract
Over the past two decades, Bangladesh's economic growth averaged about 4-5 per cent per
annum, with prospects for higher growth limited by the persistent decline in domestic
investments during FY81-FY91 and the frequent n eed to adjust to exogenous shocks that tend
to interfere with the pursuit of longer-term policy objectives. In order to reduce the country'soverwhelming poverty, GDP needs to grow in excess of 5 per cent per annum over the next
decade.  This report identifies the major factors that inhibited higher economic performance,
outlines the policy reforms needed to accelerate growth, and provides an assessment of
growth prospects over the next few years.  Building upon the theme of last year's economic
report, which emphasized the need to restore short-term economic and financial stability andto reverse the long-term decline in domestic investment, the report focuses on the need to:  (a)
accelerate the pace of policy reforms, especially in the area of project processing and aid
utilization;  (b) improve Bangladesh's external competitiveness;  and (c) enhance efficiency in
domestic production as a precondition for an export-led growth strategy.  RecommendedG/AG/NG/S/16
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policies to enhance external competitiveness include those dealing with trade and tariff
liberalization and reforms in the formal sector labor market.  Policies to improve economic
efficiency focus on agriculture, investment incentives and industrial reforms, and
rationalization of the non-financial public enterprises.
Jaffee, Steven M.  "How Private Enterprise  Organized Agricultural Markets in Kenya"
(Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;  No. WPS 823.  Agricultural policies.
Abstract
Does liberalization of agricultural markets and an expanded role for the private sector result
in a competitive market structure in Africa?  The author empirically investigates the
organization and development of a dynamic African export-oriented sector - Kenya's
horticultural exports - in which the private sector has long had a dominant role.  The author
highlights the sector's impressive pattern of growth over the past two decades and examines
the characteristics of participating private firms, the competitive pattern among those firms,and the institutional means by which they procure raw materials for processing and export.
He finds that despite the Kenyan government's direct investments in processing and trading
activities and its application of regulations and targeted support measures to strengthen the
role of Kenyan Africans in the horticultural tr ade, most of this trade remains controlled by
foreign-owned companies or members of Kenya's small minority Asian and Europeancommunities.  This paper also examines the extent and forms of competition in this sub-sector
and reviews the wide range of institutional arrangements adopted by private firms to
coordinate their own processing and marketing activities with the farm-level production of
horticultural commodities and raw materials.
1993
"Burundi - Private Sector Development in Agriculture" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
Burundi is one of the few sub-Saharan African countries where increases in food production
during the last decade have kept pace with population growth.  There are good reasons to
believe that Burundi's agricultural growth could be accelerated and well exceed population
growth in the medium term.  This report identifies the development of a dynamic private
sector and a reduction in the role of government as the main elements necessary for achieving
agricultural growth. It focuses on two priority actions: the liberalization of agriculturalproduction and agro-industrial processing and marketing activities from excessive regulation,
and the restructuring and privatization of public enterprises, as the main elements to develop
more dynamic marketing as well as new markets for agricultural produce.  For smallholder
farmers, this means the ability to behave like entrepreneurs - to allocate resources according
to undistorted market signals - and to organize into autonomous professional groups andcooperatives.  For private traders and processors, it means the ability to organize into
professional associations and to organize contractual arrangements that would bring close
contacts with farmers, facilitating the transfer of technology and the development of
marketing channels. And for the government, it will have to change its focus to:  (a) creating a
competitive environment;  (b) eliminating input subsidies and fixed producer prices for exportcrops, lifting regulations detailing input use, sources of input supply, and cultivation
requirements, and ending compulsory sales to public enterprises;  (c) providing adequate
support services in research and extension;  (d) developing and applying a proper regulatory
framework for land tenure, forestry management, phytosanitary practices, animal health, andG/AG/NG/S/16
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quality safeguards;  (e) undertaking investments with significant externalities, such as land
development (erosion control, irrigation, drainage), and better air transport links.
Pursell, Garry and Gulati, Ashok  "Liberalizing Indian Agriculture:  An Agenda for Reform"
(Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;  No. WPS 1172.  Trade policy.
Abstract
In July 1991, India embarked on a program of economic decontrol that greatly speeded the
previously slow process of liberalizing trade and domestic regulatory controls begun in 1978.
But the focus of reform has been on manufacturing.  Reform has barely touched agriculture,which accounts for two-thirds of employment in India and about 30 per cent of India's GDP.
Although some crops (notably oilseeds) receive heavy protection, the net effect of
interventions to date is to heavily favor manufacturing over agriculture.  In this agenda for
reform, the authors offer recommendations:  Remove all quantitative export and import
controls on agriculture, except for special treatment (such as export taxes) when Indianexports would be substantial enough to depress world prices (most likely with rice).  Further
reduce protection on manufacturing, rather than bring protection for agriculture up to the
same level.  As a transitional measure, consider the use of variable tariffs based on weighted
averages of past international prices as a way to partly insulate domestic prices from extreme
fluctuations in world prices.  Initially allow the export only of high quality high pricedvarieties of such commodities as cotton and rice, to limit upward pressures on domestic prices
of lower quality varieties, which are important to consumption in low income Indian
households.  Liberalizing fertilizingr imports and deregulating domestic manufacturing and
the distribution of fertilizingrs.  Remove subsidies on irrigations, electricity, and credit (and
create conditions to facilitate the trading of canal irrigation water rights).  Deregulate thewheat, rice, oil and oilseed industries, and abolish compulsory government acquisition at
below market prices of sugar, molasses, and milled rice.  Reform the food security system to
protect low income groups from the increase in the general level of food prices required by
the liberalization of agriculture.
Salazar P. Brandao and Antonio Martin, Will  "Implications of Agricultural Trade
Liberalization for the Developing Countries " (Vol.1). Policy, Research working papers;
No. PS 116.  Agricultural policies.
Abstract
The authors examine the implications for the developing countries of a range of liberalization
proposals along the lines of the Dunkel proposal. First, the analysis considers liberalization in
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, alone then
global liberalization of all (positive and negative) protection.  Since the current Dunkel
proposal requires reduction only in positive assistance, this specific proposal is assessed.Finally, the implications of the developing countries acting alone, perhaps in the absence of a
successful Uruguay Round, are evaluated.  Virtually all research on agricultural trade
liberalization has focused on the case of total liberalization, an unlikely outcome in the near
future.  The earlier work provides useful insights into the effects of a partial liberalization on
world prices, but may be misleading as a guide to the welfare implications of partialliberalization in a second best context of continuing distortions in both agriculture and
manufacturing.  The authors consider partial liberalization along the lines of the Dunkel
proposal: a reduction of 36 per cent in (positive) border protection and 20 per cent in
domestic support in industrial countries, This partial reform would produce gains ofG/AG/NG/S/16
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$20 billion a year for developing countries.  These benefits are widely spread among
developing countries.  Few regions would suff er overall losses, and those would be small in
relation to overall gains.  If developing countries had chosen not to participate in the Round,
and to relay on liberalization only by the industrial countries, their gains would have been less
that $1 billion -- and a number of important regions would have suffered significant welfarelosses.  The gains to developing countries could be greatly enhanced by a more
comprehensive liberalization.
Baneth, Jean  "Fortress Europe and Other Myths Concerning Trade" (Vol. 1).  Policy,
Research working papers;  No. WPS 1098.  Trade policy.
Abstract
Developing countries sometimes still resist free trade because of the alleged protectionism of
industrial countries -- a myth belied by facts, says the author.  Import growth in the industrial
countries accelerated during the 1980s, while in come growth slowed.  Outside of agriculture
(only about 2 per cent of GDP) and with the possible exception of Japan, free trade -- not
protectionism -- is the reality.  Despite the march toward a frontier-less Europe, the European
Community (EC) manufactures imports from nonmem bers rose faster than intra-EC trade,
and imports from developing countries rose fastest. Similar tendencies prevailed in North
America.  This pattern of imports contradicts the myth of widespread, effective and growingbarriers to manufactures imports.  Protectionist rhetoric is up because imports are increasing,
not because trade barriers are rising.  The rising share of developing countries, despite their
often weak bargaining positions, shows that multilateral rules, rather than bargaining, threats
and counter-threats, still drive the system.  In the 1980s, manufactures imports rose to 40 per
cent of manufacturing production in the United States and to 25 per cent in the EC. But inJapan, manufactures imports in 1990 were less than 12 per cent of manufacturing production,
and their dollar value was smaller than Italy's.  Granted, some protectionism persists
everywhere, but it is an irritant rather than a true obstacle to trade.  For that reason, further
trade liberalization can bring the industrial countries little additional benefit in terms of faster
growth, though retreat from free trade holds huge potential losses.  Only improved domestic
policies -- structural and macroeconomic -- can raise investment, accelerate growth, reduce
unemployment and consolidate support for free trad e.  Developing countries should view the
United States and the EC as open markets for their manufactures exports.
Gardner, Bruce and Brooks, Karen M.  "How Retail Food Markets Responded to Price
Liberalization in Russia after January 1992" (V ol. 1).  Policy, Research working papers;
No. WPS 1140.  Agricultural policies.
Abstract
Under administered prices through the fall of 1991, Russia's food distribution system broke
down, and it was feared that the food supply would be inadequate in the winter of 1992 and
thereafter.  In January and March 1992, price ceilings were removed on most items sold in
state-owned Russian stores.  Price liberalization was intended to return food to shelves and to
improve the flow of food among regions through responses to price differentials.
Privatization of the distribution system did not begin until October 1992.  At the time of priceliberalization the environment was still dominated by unrestructured state enterprises.  Retail
prices immediately rose sharply and fluctuated. Because food prices did not stabilize after the
initial jump, many people questioned whether price liberalization accomplished anything
positive. The authors examine data on movements in food prices and volumes betweenG/AG/NG/S/16
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December 1991 and August 1992 to examine how retail food markets responded to
liberalization.  They address the following questions.  Is there any evidence that after
liberalization food returned to retail outlets that were essentially bare in December 1991?  Is
there evidence that transactions took place in response to price differentials (did markets
begin to emerge despite the lack of privatization and demonopolization)?  Did city-to-cityprice differentials evolve to reflect a price surface explainable by transportation costs and
other economic variables?  If not, why not?  The authors conclude that progress was made
toward market integration in the seven months after price liberalization.  The volume of food
sold in monitored shops increased substantially.  The geographic dispersion of prices declined
over time.  But large price differences between cities persisted that cannot be explained in
terms of available economic variables.  Large economic gains could be achieved by further
market integration.
"Agricultural Sector Review."
Abstract
This review was prepared in response to growing concern in the World Bank about the
decline in volume and performance of lending for agriculture.  The review points out that
agriculture is indeed a problematic sector in which success is more elusive than in other
sectors, but argues that the critical role the sector can play for the sustained alleviation ofpoverty justifies continued attention by the Bank.  In addition, the prospects for agricultural
development are increasingly brighter, and many important lessons have been learned about
the ingredients of sustainably successful agricultural development.  Agriculture is particularly
vulnerable to poor macroeconomic management.  However, as more countries adopt
structural adjustment to improve their macroeconomic management, the prospects foragricultural development are brighter.  Provided the sequencing of reforms is well thought
out, in almost all cases structural adjustment programs will make agriculture more profitable.
Agriculture has also suffered in many countries from poor sectoral policies and massive
public intervention in commercial activities.  Again, as more countries adopt sectoral
adjustment to improve sectoral management, and provided safeguards are taken against
substitution by private for public monopolies, sectoral adjustment programs will make
agriculture more efficient.  Prospects for agricultural development will also improve withtrade liberalization.  The outcome of the Uruguay Round trade negotiations is still uncertain,
but the potential gains for developing countries' agriculture are in the tens of billions of
dollars per year.  Meanwhile, encouraging steps are being taken towards regional trade
liberalization in North America and in the southe rn cone of South America.  Lessons on the
conditions for success have been learned from operations evaluation work on nearly 900completed projects over 20 years.
1994
Low, Patrick and Yeats, Alexander  "Nontariff measures and Developing Countries:  Has the
Uruguay Round Levelled the Playing Field?"  Policy, Research working paper;  No.WPS 1353.
Abstract
In the policy environment prevailing before  implementation of the Uruguay Round results,
exports from developing countries face significant nontariff measures in industrial countries.
Based on 1992 trade flows, the import coverage ratio of nontariff measures on this trade was
more than 18 per cent, compared with less than 11 per cent for trade among industrial
countries.  Trade liberalization measures agreed to in the Uruguay Round will dramaticallyG/AG/NG/S/16
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reduce the incidence of nontariff measures on developing country exports: the coverage ratio
will drop to less than 4 per cent on nonoil exports.  This change has the dual effect of
increasing export market opportunities for developing countries and of substantially reducing
- if not eradicating - the relatively negative bias against developing country exports.  These
impressive results from the Uruguay Round are attributed to "tariffication" in agriculture, theabolition of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), and the elimination of voluntary export
restraints (VERs) under the safeguards agreement.  But all these aspects of liberalization will
not happen instantaneously when the Uruguay Round results come into force.  Agricultural
tariffication will occur immediately, but the MFA will be phased out over ten years and VERs
will be eliminated over four years.  Considering the extent of the liberalization presaged by
these policy changes, the authors speculate about likely sources of pressure for measures to
mitigate the effects of removing nontariff measures.  They conclude that the greatest risks willprobably come from safeguards and antidumping.  The new safeguards agreement permits the
use of quantitative restrictions to stem the flow of injurious imports, and although the
agreement tightens existing GATT rules in some respects, it loosens them in others.  The
antidumping instrument has been used with increasing frequency by an increasing number of
countries in the past two decades or more.
"Morocco – Second Agricultural Sector  Investment Loan (ASL II) (Vol.1).
Abstract
The primary objective of the Second Agricultural Investment Loan Project (ASIL II) will be
to support a well-conceived investment program in Morocco's agricultural sector.  The
ASIL II will finance specific critical investments in: agricultural education, livestock, crop
production, plant protection, land policy programs, rainfed land improvements, forestry,extension, small- and medium- scale irrigation, and planning.  The loan will also finance an
Agricultural Development Fund (FDA) whic h promotes private investments in: land
improvements; irrigation improvements; increased use of small-scale farm equipment;
livestock intensification; phyto-sanitary protection; and increased tree planting.  The package
of policy actions includes:  (a) liberalization of internal and external trade;  (b) reforms in the
budget execution process;  and (c) reforms of the FDA; and d) subsectoral reforms.  The
ASIL II will also support the establishment of an Environmental Management Unit which willhave the responsibility for undertaking environmental screening of projects, arranging for
environmental impact assessments when approp riate, and monitoring impact results from
investments.
"Morocco - Second Agricultural Sector  Investment Loan" (ASIL II) (Vol. 1).
Abstract
The primary objective of the Second Agricultural Investment Loan Project (ASIL II) will be
to support a well-conceived investment program in Morocco's agricultural sector.  The ASIL
II will finance specific critical investments in: agricultural education, livestock, crop
production, plant protection, land policy programs, rainfed land improvements, forestry,
extension, small- and medium- scale irrigation, and planning.  The loan will also finance an
Agricultural Development Fund (FDA) which promotes private investments in:  land
improvements;  irrigation improvements; increased use of small-scale farm equipment;
livestock intensification;  phyto-sanitary protection; and increased tree planting.  The package
of policy actions includes:  (a) liberalization of internal and external trade;  (b) reforms in the
budget execution process;  and (c) reforms of the FDA;  and (d) subsectoral reforms.  TheG/AG/NG/S/16
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ASIL II will also support the establishment of an Environmental Management Unit which will
have the responsibility for undertaking environmental screening of projects, arranging for
environmental impact assessments when approp riate, and monitoring impact results from
investments.
"Ukraine – Food and Agricult ure Sector Review" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
This report describes the current status of the food and agriculture system and the ongoing
process of transformation in the Ukraine and it also provides an agenda and recommendationsfor continuing sectoral reform.  The food and agricultural sector has greater economic
potential in Ukraine than in any other region of  the Former Soviet Union (FSU).  Performance
of the sector, however, has been far below potential.  Ukranian agriculture still exhibits the
major hallmarks of the Soviet system.  Most of the production is organized in large-scale state
farms and collectives.  The decline in production is a reflection of the deterioration of theoverall economic situation of the FSU:  high inflation, worsening terms of trade for
agriculture, reduced availability of vital inputs, overall decline of real wages and domestic
demand, and the collapse of intra-regional trade.  The Government has moved cautiously in
reforming and restructuring the food and agricultural sector.  To continue the effort and
develop a reform strategy, the report make s the following recommendations:  (1) the
continuation of market and price liberalization and subsidy reductions;  (2) restructuring and
privatizing the agricultural distribution and processing system;  (3) reform of the agricultural
credit system;  (4) land reform and farm restructuring;  (5) investing in, and improving, farm
productivity and efficiency;  (6) restoring international trade;  and (7) defining new roles and
structure for the government.
"Ukraine - The Agriculture Sector in Transition" (Vol. 1).  A World Bank country study.
Abstract
This report describes the current status of the food and agriculture system and the ongoing
process of transformation in the Ukraine and it also provides an agenda and recommendations
for continuing sectoral reform. The food and agricultural sector has greater economic
potential in Ukraine than in any other region of  the Former Soviet Union (FSU).  Performance
of the sector, however, has been far below potential. Ukranian agriculture still exhibits the
major hallmarks of the Soviet system.  Most of the production is organized in large-scale statefarms and collectives.  The decline in production is a reflection of the deterioration of the
overall economic situation of the FSU: high inflation, worsening terms of trade for
agriculture, reduced availability of vital inputs, overall decline of real wages and domestic
demand, and the collapse of intra-regional trade.  The Government has moved cautiously in
reforming and restructuring the food and agricultural sector.  To continue the effort anddevelop a reform strategy, the report make s the following recommendations:  (1) the
continuation of market and price liberalization and subsidy reduction;  (2) restructuring and
privatizing the agricultural distribution and processing system;  (3) reform of the agricutural
credit system;  (4) land reform and farm restructuring;  (5) investing in, and improving, farm
productivity and efficiency;  (6) restoring international trade;  and (7) defining new roles andstructure for the government.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Iran – Services for Agriculture and Rural Development" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
Agriculture is an important component of the Iranian economy, contributing a fifth of the
GDP, one-third of employment, four-fifths of  food needs and one third of non-oil exports.
Agriculture is predominantly a smallholder activity and involves significant use of fertilizers
and mechanization.  Policy in the 1980s aimed at self-sufficiency in basic products and at
maintaining low consumer prices, and used input subsidies, guaranteed procurement prices
and consumer subsidies to achieve these goals.  Since 1990, and in parallel with changes
throughout the economy, the Government has been moving towards economic liberalization
in the sector.  Input subsidies are being phased out, Government procurement is limited to afew crops and producer prices are now close to import parity level.  Consumer subsidies are
also being phased out.  In view of these changes, this report discusses some recent
developments in the agricultural sector:  (1) government's role in distributing responsibility
for services between the public and the private sector for rural development;  (2) structural
adjustments that will change the demand for planning, economic analysis, and resourceallocation;  (3) the development of services for research and extension and technical training
for farmers;  (4) the prices, supply, demand, and allocation of inputs for agricultural
production;  (5) livestock, forestry, and fisheries;  (6) rural development, including
infrastructure, economic diversification and job creation;  (7) liberalization and privatization
of marketing, processing and pricing of wheat and many industrial crops;  (8) thedevelopment of the private sector;  and (9) the development of public services.
1995
Ingco, M.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round:  One Step Forward, One
Step Back?", Policy Research Working Paper No. 1500, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Abstract
After evaluating the Uruguay Round's impact on agriculture and border protection in the next
decade, the author concludes that while there wa s significant reform of the rules - particularly
the conversion of nontariff barriers into tariffs and the reduction and binding of all tariffs - inpractice, trade will probably be liberalized less than expected.  The objective of the Round
was to reverse protectionism and remove trade distortions.  This may not be achieved in
practice, at least not until further reductions are carried out in future rounds of negotiations.
The major exception to this conclusion is in high-income Asian countries, where protection
for major commodities will be significantly reduced.  The tariffication and binding of alltariffs on agricultural products represents a significant step forward.  Liberalization is implicit
because countries are prohibited from arbitrarily raising tariffs to new higher levels.  But
many of the newly established tariffs are so high in many countries as to effectively prohibit
trade.  Patterns of liberalization vary considerably by commodity and by country.  Generally,
the extent of liberalization was diminished by binding tariffs to the base period of 1986-88,when border protection was at a high point.  In most OECD countries, this was worsened by
"dirty tariffication:" the new base tariffs offered even greater protection than the nontariff
barriers they replaced.  Even after the commitments to tariff reductions in the Round, the
ad valorem  measure of the final binding tariffs will remain higher than the average rate of
protection in 1982-93.  A number of developing countries in East Asia, Latin America, and
the Middle East chose to lock in prior liberalization efforts on some products.  But for most
commodities, there will be little actual liberalization, since most developing countries chose
to bind their tariffs at a maximum level.G/AG/NG/S/16
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Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds.) "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Economies",
Discussion Paper No. 307, World Bank.
Abstract
This Discussion Paper contains thirteen studies designed to assess the economic impact of the
Uruguay Round on the developing economies.  Some of the key conclusions to emerge from
the study include the following.  The Agriculture Agreement achieved a great deal in terms of
defining rules for agricultural trade, but little in terms of immediate market opening.  The
substantial cuts in tariffs on manufactures in both developing and industrial countries, and the
agreement to abolish the Multifibre Arrangement, will provide important benefits for
developing countries.  Cuts in protection on total merchandise trade will increase realincomes in developing countries by US$55 to 90 billion dollars, or between 1.2 and 2.0 per
cent of their GDP in 1992.  The establishment of the World Trade Organization will
strengthen the world trading system.
Earlier versions of the papers were presented at a conference held at the World Bank in
January 1995.  The analyses contained in this volume are, to our knowledge, the first in which
estimates of the effects of the Round were based entirely on the actual cuts in protection from
previously prevailing rates achieved by the Round.
The paper by Hathaway and Ingco examines the agreement on agriculture, reviewing both the
changes in the rules, and the extent of liberalization achieved.  A key conclusion of the paper
is that the tariff bindings agreed in the Round were typically well above those previously
prevailing, so that little liberalization will be achieved, despite the substantial cuts agreed in
the Round.  The paper by Goldin and van der Mensbrugghe finds that the high settings of the
tariff bindings greatly reduce the income gains from the Round.
The paper by Abreu examines the agreement to liberalize manufactures trade, and shows that
substantial cuts in sector protection were made both in industrial and developing countries.
The paper by Hertel, Martin, Yanagishima, and Dimaranan takes into account the structural
changes taking place in the world economy over the implementation period, and finds that
these will typically require greater adjustment than the Round, except in the case of textiles
and clothing, where abolition of the MFA will create significant benefits and requiresignificant adjustments.
The paper by Blackhurst, Enders and Francois documents the substantial overall reductions in
protection on merchandise trade, and increases in the scope of tariff bindings, achieved under
the Round.  The papers by Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr, and by Francois, McDonald andNordström examine the implications of this libe ralization for global real incomes, taking into
account factors such as scale economies and the medium-run growth impacts of liberalization.
Based on these studies, they conclude that the gains to the developing countries lie in the
range from US$55 billion to 90 billion (or 1.2 to 2.0 per cent of GDP), while the gains to the
world as a whole are in the order of $200 billion.
Finger's analysis of contingent protection concludes that the abolition of Voluntary Export
Restraints was an important achievement of the Safeguards agreement, but that the revised
Safeguards measures will still remain less attractive to those seeking protection than anti-
dumping, the abuse of which will not be curbed by the agreed procedural changes.
In his paper on system strengthening, Whalley examines the importance of a strong
multilateral trading system to developing countries.  He notes that important features of theG/AG/NG/S/16
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Agreement, such as the expansion of its scope, and the strengthening of its dispute settlement
procedures, should help strengthen the system.
The paper by Hoekman concludes that the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)
was a landmark in introducing multilateral disciplines to trade in services, but achieved verylittle liberalization.  In their model-based analysis of the effects of the agreement, Brown,
Deardorff, Fox and Stern conclude that the pot ential gains from freeing up trade in services
are as large as those obtainable from liberalization of merchandise trade.
In his analysis of the agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property, Braga concludes that
the agreement extends the disciplines on intellectual property rights considerably, and that
potential short-term costs to developing countries need to be weighed against gains fromincreased research and development in areas relevant to their interests.
The paper by Low and Subramanian concludes that the TRIMS agreement is a step towards a
worthwhile multilateral agreement on investment policy, but that the case for extending it into
a multilateral agreement on competition policy has not been established.
Two key issues facing the multilateral trading system are dealing with the interaction between
trade and environmental policies, and the possibility of extending the agreement to deal with
labour standards.  Anderson concludes that considerable care is needed in designing an
agreement on environmental policies, and that an agreement on labour standards would beboth inappropriate and contrary to the interests of developing countries.
Executive Summary
The studies presented in this volume examine the implications of the Uruguay Round for
developing countries from a range of perspectives.  Some key results to emerge are:
- The Agreement on Agriculture achieved a great deal by defining rules for agricultural
trade, but rather little in terms of immediate market opening.
- The substantial cuts made in tariffs on manufactures, and the agreements to abolish
the Multifibre Arrangement and Voluntary Export Restraints, will be an importantfactor in developing countries' attempts to industrialize and modernize.
- Cuts in protection on merchandise trade are estimated to increase real incomes in
developing countries by between $US 55 and 90 billion at 1992 prices, or between
1.2 and 2.0 per cent of real income, despite the cautious offers made by manydeveloping countries.
- The establishment of the World Trade Organization, which oversees three
international agreements - GATT 1994, GATS, and TRIPs- and has wider
responsibilities than the GATT, stronger dispute settlement procedures, and greaterministerial involvement, will strengthen the world trading system.  This strengthening
is central to the implementation of the agreement and for building on the foundations
it provides.
The Agreement on Agriculture achieved a great deal by defining rules for agricultural trade,
but much less than is initially apparent in terms of immediate market opening.  In the absence
of agreed trading rules, world agricultural trad e had degenerated into near anarchy, with low
cost exporters in developing countries unable to secure access to industrial country markets,
and with export subsidy wars depressing world prices.  The maze of protective import barriersG/AG/NG/S/16
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which currently distorts world agricultural trade will be replaced by a much simpler system of
tariffs subject to bindings which limit the ability of members to increase them.  Industrial
country members are then to reduce their tariff bindings by an average of 36 per cent, while
all developing countries but the very poorest are required to make 24 per cent reductions.  The
tariffs set under the Round were originally intended to have the same effect on trade as themaze of tariff and non-tariff barriers they replaced.  However, the base period chosen for the
conversion (1986-88) was one of generally high protection.  Further, because of the way that
non-tariff barriers were converted into tariffs, the so-called dirty tariffication, many of the
tariff bindings exceeded the protection rates applying in 1986-88 - some by as much as
200 per cent (see Chapter I by Hathaway and Ingco.) Developing countries were effectively
allowed to set their agricultural tariffs at any level they liked, using so-called ceiling bindings,
and many countries chose to set them at very high levels.  The reductions in bound tariffsagreed under the Round take place only from these stratospheric levels, and in many cases
will, even in 2001, be higher than the historical levels of protection.
In industrial countries, the tariff bindings rose in two steps from current levels - through the
choice of the base period, and through the tariffication calculations.  In developing countries,only a single, but frequently larger, step upwards was taken in setting the tariff bindings.
Figure I illustrates the differences between historic protection rates and the base and final
rates agreed under the Uruguay Round for the EU and Mexico.  As a consequence of the tariff
bindings agreed for many commodities, the Round appears likely to have a much smaller
liberalizing impact than would be implied by the stated liberalization objectives.  In ananalysis in Chapter 2 that focused on the agricultural agreement, Goldin and van der
Mensbrugghe estimated global welfare gains at $48 billion;  had the specified tariff reductions
taken place from more representative levels of protection, and been accompanied by effective
disciplines on domestic support, the welfare gains would have been more than two and a half
times as large.  The smaller reductions in protection do, however, mean smaller increases inworld prices than would have resulted from more complete liberalization, and hence alleviate
concerns about the problems created for net food importers by increases in world food prices.
The largest increase in any agricultural commodity price is 3.8 per cent for wheat, a very
small increase relative to the historical range of price variability for this commodity.
All of the available quantitative estimates tend to understate the true gains from the
agricultural agreement.  It will reduce the chaotic variability of protection and subsidizationthat has characterized world agricultural trade.  Moreover, and this was a key objective, it
provides a strong base for future liberalization.
There were substantial cuts in tariff protection on manufactures- proportionately as large as
those in the Kennedy or Tokyo Rounds.  Perhaps even more important is the progress madeon scaling back the non-tariff barriers erected in the wake of earlier GATT success in
reducing tariff barriers.  The prohibition of Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) and the
agreement to phase out the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) are landmark achievements for
developing countries.
The Uruguay Round agreement will lead to substantial tariff reductions in both industrial and
developing countries.  Developing countries bound their tariffs (i.e. committed not to exceed
a particular tariff level) on 61 per cent of their imports of industrial products (see Chapter 3
by Abreu.)  Even though many developing countries offered quite modest cuts in tariffs, these
cut were from relatively high levels.  When we take into account the value of the trade flowsand the size of the cuts, developing country offers on manufactures tariffs amounted to over a
third of the world total (see Chapter 4 by Hertel, Martin, Yanagishima, and Dimaranan).  In
fact, this estimate understates the importance of the developing countries' contribution since
many developing countries - in addition to the reductions in actual tariffs that they agreed -G/AG/NG/S/16
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also introduced tariff bindings above the previously applied tariff rates (so called "ceiling"
bindings), or reduced tariff bindings that still remained above current applied rates (see
Chapter 5 by Blackhurst, Enders, and Francois).  While these concessions do not enter the
realm of tariff cut measures, they can have important effects by ruling out future increases in
tariffs, and increasing the security of market access.
The labyrinth of trade distortions under the MFA has become increasingly rigid and
restrictive since the 1960s, with massive costs to both industrial and developing countries.
Projected growth and change in the world economy over the next decade will require massive
shifts in production and trade patterns, with export leadership passing to a new generation of
developing country exporters in East an d South Asia.  Without the Uruguay Round
agreement, the direct costs of the MFA to competitive exporters might have increased bymore than 50 per cent (see Chapter 4).  The agreement on textiles and clothing will mitigate
the restrictiveness of the quantitative trade barriers in the MFA during the next decade, and
then abolish them.
The largest gains from MFA abolition will accrue to importers in the industrial countries that
impose these policies - by 2005 the total benefits to the EU, the US and Canada are estimated
at $US 56 billion per year at 1992 prices.  Income  gains of over $US 13 billion are projected
for highly competitive exporters such as China, Indonesia, Thailand and the South Asian
exporters, despite the loss of quota rents provided under the MFA.  Some less competitive
exporters will suffer from the loss of their preferential access to industrial country marketsunless they are able to increase their efficiency, and some currently unrestricted importers
will lose as the exports currently diverted toward them by restrictions elsewhere can flow
freely to the other markets.
There is a risk that new quantitative restrictions will arise under the guise of anti-dumping or
safeguard actions.  Unfortunately, many of these developments could be perfectly consistent
with agreements under the Round.  Nevertheless, the enhanced dispute settlement procedures
introduced under the Round will have an important role to play in preventing the growth of
illegal barriers.
Based on estimates presented at the conference by Harrison, Rutherford, and Tarr (Chapter 7)
and Francois, McDonald, and Nordstrom (Chapter 6), cuts in protection on merchandise tradeare expected to increase real incomes in developing countries by between $US 55 and $90
billion at 1992 prices in the long term, or between 1.2 and 2.0 per cent of their 1992 income
level.  Much larger gains might have been achieved had many developing countries
participating in negotiations for the first time been less cautious with their offers.
These gains to developing countries are likely to be far from evenly distributed.  Most
developing regions were estimated to achieve very substantial income gains, but there is a
possibility of relatively small welfare losses in some regions.  Overall, there is a strong
positive relationship evident between the reducti ons that countries made in their own import
barriers and export subsidies, and the welfare gains that they received from the Round.Where relatively deep tariff cuts were offered, as in East Asia and South Asia, the estimated
gains were particularly large.  Nor did these overall welfare gains to liberalizing regions come
at the expense of the workers' incomes.  Wage rates are projected to rise substantially in the
poorer regions which cut their protection; in East and South Asia, real wages could rise by
over 3 per cent.
Where only minimal cuts in protection were offered, as in Sub-Saharan Africa, the gains from
the Round are likely to be small or negative.  In fact, there may be some losses to exporters in
SubSaharan Africa due to the erosion of preferences in OECD markets.  However, theseG/AG/NG/S/16
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losses are likely to be small since Africa's exports are concentrated either in products with low
duties, or in products such as clothing, for which no preferences are available (see Chapter 5).
The GATS is a landmark achievement in terms of creating trade disciplines in virgin territory,
but it achieved little in terms of immediate liberalization.  The share of services in developingcountry exports has been growing very rapidly, and now accounts for almost 20 per cent of
their total exports (see Chapter 10 by Hoekman).  Exports of services, particularly of tourist
services, are of special importance to many small developing economies.  While industrial
countries have taken advantage of the GATS to offer market access commitments of some
kind on over half of their service activities, developing countries did so on only 15 per cent of
their services trade categories.  The larger industrial countries, however, made offers on
almost 30 per cent of their service sectors.  Neither in developing nor in industrial countriesdid the GATS agreements involve commitments to reduce protection: at best, they involve a
standstill commitment for services protection.
While the GATS is important in providing a basic framework, it is not clear that its rules offer
the best chance of persuading developing countries to make substantial commitments.Continuing efforts to build on the foundation provided by the GATS are a priority since the
potential gains from comprehensive liberalization of services are very large-probably as large
as the potential gains remaining from liberalization of merchandise trade (see Chapter I I by
Brown, Deardorff, Fox, and Stern).  The tortuous progress of the negotiations on financial
services, which were extended to mid-1995 and concluded by a coalition of industrial anddeveloping countries after the withdrawal of the US offer, highlights both the possibility of
making incremental gains and the difficulties of securing the large potential gains from
comprehensive liberalization of services.
The GATT provides a range of discretionary measures, which allow governments to restrict
access to particular markets.  Measures of this type include safeguards, anti-dumping,
countervailing duties and balance of payments measures.  The extent to which any one of
these measures is used depends upon the effectiveness of the others.  Interests seeking
protection from foreign competition will seek to use the instrument that most readily meets
their wishes, and so this set of instruments needs to be considered together.
A key achievement of the agreement on safegu ards was the prohibition of Voluntary Export
Restraints (VERs), with agreement that existing VERs be phased out over four years (see
Chapter 8 by Finger).  There is a danger, however, that developing country exports could face
increased protection from safeguard actions.  Such actions were made more attractive to
protecting parties by allowing discriminatory action against dynamic suppliers and by limiting
the right of retaliation against these actions.  Worse, safeguard actions can legally take theform of quantitative restrictions administered by the exporting country government - VERs in
all but name.  The procedural requirements for imposing safeguard actions and the "sunset
clause" in such measures may provide some comfort - but most measures can persist for up to
eight years.
Prior to the Round, anti-dumping had replaced safeguards as the primary form of contingent
protection - over thirty times as many anti-dumping actions as safeguards actions were in
effect in the early 1990s.  While the administrative procedures for imposing anti-dumping
duties were tightened up substantially, no attempt was made to address the fundamental
sources of abuse of this type of policy.  Indeed some previously doubtful practices have beenofficially sanctioned by inclusion in the GATT 1994.  Even though the new procedural
requirements make it more difficult to administer an anti-dumping system, they will not
prevent continuing abuse among the countries with active policies in this area.  Moreover, inG/AG/NG/S/16
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an unfortunate example of technology transf er, anti-dumping systems are increasingly
spreading to developing countries.  The Round has done nothing to address this contagion.
The procedural arrangements required for implementing of countervailing duties have been
spelled out in more detail.  Prior to the Round, the subsidies against which countervailingactions might be taken were not explicitly defined, so that a wide range of exports were
potentially vulnerable to countervailing actions.  As a result of the Round, subsidies are now
defined and classified into prohibited, actionable and non-actionable, reducing the
vulnerability of exports to unexpected countervailing actions.
Balance of payments restrictions have been an important excuse for protection in developing
countries, having been widely used to justify some of the more strongly restrictive, andfrequently opaque, forms of protection.  The agreement on balance of payments measures
exhorts, but does not require, countries to use price-based, rather than quantitative, protection
measures.  Whether this matters very much in practice depends on the continuation of the
recent trend for developing countries to join the industrial countries in renouncing the use of
balance of payments measures.
The creation of the WTO, with responsibility for trade in all goods and services, enhanced
dispute settlement procedures, and greater involvement at Ministerial level, will strengthen
the world trading system on which developing countries now so heavily, depend (see
Chapter 9 by Whalley).  The wider coverage of the WTO is a source of strength because itincreases the stakes which countries hold in the trading system, while the dispute settlement
procedures strengthen the rules which are the foundation of the rules-based international
trading system.
The TRIPs agreement extends the coverage of intellectual property rights in developing
countries both in terms of geographic coverage and in terms of the property rights protected.
The previous international conventions on intellectual property rights sought merely to ensure
that domestic and all foreign suppliers of intellectual property rights were treated equally (the
national treatment and most-favoured-nation principles).  By contrast, the TRIPs agreement
provides for minimum standards on the strength, form and duration of the intellectual
property rights provided by governments (see Chapter 12 by Braga).  It is one of the deepest
and most far reaching outcomes of the Round.
The Round has also left a great deal of unfinished business which must be addressed if its
potential gains are to be realized.  This is very clear in services, where successive rounds of
negotiations are scheduled to begin not later than five years after implementation of the
agreement.  It is also important for the agriculture agreement, where negotiations to continuethe process of liberalization are scheduled for five years after implementation, and for Trade-
Related Investment Measures (TRIMS), where a comprehensive review of the agreement,
including the possibility of incorporating broader forms of investment and competition policy,
is due within five years (see Chapter 13 by Low and Subramanian).
The substantial expansion of the scope of the multilateral trading system to GATS and TRIPs
is an experiment whose full implications will take a long time to emerge.  Also relevant to the
long run, the Round agreement established a committee to consider the addition of trade and
the environment to the system, and pressures were evident for the addition of labour standards
to the agenda.  While these are fundamental issues, there is a serious risk that the ill-considered addition of environmental and labour standards or competition policy to the world
trading system could play into the hands of protectionists, and prejudice the integrity of the
trading system which has been the key engine of improvement for living standards and
environmental quality in developing countries (see Chapter 14 by Anderson).G/AG/NG/S/16
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The Uruguay Round went far beyond what had been achieved in previous Rounds:  by
bringing developing countries as full participants into the world trading system, by
strengthening dispute settlement procedures, and by introducing a range of new products -
agriculture and services and new activities such as trade related intellectual property rights(TRIPs) and trade related investment measures (TRIMs) into the system.  Substantial
reductions were achieved in protection on traditional areas such as manufactures, while less
progress was made on reductions in the newer areas where a complete framework of rules had
to be negotiated.  The market liberalization aspects of the Round seem likely to generate gains
of between $55 and $90 billion to developing countries and $100 to $200 billion dollars to the
world as a whole.
Much remains to be done to build on the foundations laid by the Round.  The very success of
the Round in outlawing Voluntary Export Restraints, and in abolishing the Multifibre
Arrangement will divert protectionist pressures onto relatively weak parts of the new
multilateral trading system, such as those covering safeguards and anti-dumping.  Much
remains to be done to curb agricultural protectionism.  The rules governing services trade willprobably need reform if they are to provide a basis for sustained liberalization of this
component of world trade.  New issues such as the environment will figure in future
negotiations.  New members will join the WTO.  Only with the full and active participation of
developing countries will it be possible to reap the full potential benefits of the Round.  And
only by full and active participation will developing countries be able to realize their fullpotential returns from the world trading system.
"Ukraine – Seed Developm ent Project" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
The principal objective of the Seed Development Project is to improve the national seed
system's capacity to produce high quality seed efficiently.  To meet the project's short term
objective of improving the supply of quality seed for the domestic and export market, the
project will provide financial and technical assistance for:  (1) the development of three
private enterprises specializing in the multiplication of domestic and imported parent hybridseed for maize, sunflower, sugarbeet, and their processing and marketing;  and (b) the
germplasm maintenance and development for three leading domestic suppliers of hybrid
maize, sunflower, and sugarbeet seed.  To help meet the project's medium term objective of
developing a competitive seed system, the project will provide financial and technical
assistance for:  (1) improving the regulato ry framework for the seed system;  (2) the
development of an agricultural research strategy and plan;  and (3) the Ukrainian Institute for
Agro-Ecology and Biotechnology. In addition to these specific interventions in the seed
system, the liberalization of seed pricing, marketing, and trade implemented within the
context of the Government's economic reform program, will establish the enabling policy
environment to enhance the efficiency of the national seed system.
"Bangladesh – Country Assistance Strategy" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
The overriding objective in the Bank's strategy toward Bangladesh is to support the country's
efforts to accelerate the rate and improve the pattern of growth so as to reduce the absolute
number of people living in extreme poverty.  Accordingly, the assistance strategy will addressG/AG/NG/S/16
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the structural impediments to growth which are identifed and will seek to involve the poor in
the growth process.  Priority is given to specific themes.  First addressed is the maintenance
of macroeconomic stability through continued broadening of the tax base and improvements
in the quality of public expenditures.  Second, the authors call for a promotion of a dynamic
private sector that invests more and is subject to competitive market discipline.  Emphasiswill be given to completing the process of trade liberalization, to promote higher agricultural
productivity and diversification, to overcoming the default culture and extending financial
sector reform, and to increasing both public and private investment in critical infrastructure
areas.  The authors add the need for consolidating and strengthening the public sector's role
by accelerating the pace of privatization, by putting in place appropriate regulatory structures
to govern non-competitive markets, by clarifying the policies and strengthening the
institutions that affect the willingness of the private sector to invest in infrastructure, and byoperationalizing the priorities identified in th e National Environmental Action Plan.  Lastly,
the authors noted the need for fostering the participation of the poor in the growth process by
extending access and improving the quality of basic education and primary health and family
planning services at a sustainable cost.
Csaba, Csaki  "Armenia:  Agricult ural Policy Update" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
Armenia has implemented one of the most comprehensive land reform programs in the former
Soviet Union Republics.  Land reform was initiated in 1991, and by the end of 1992, most of
the agricultural land had been privatized.  Concurrent with land reform, in 1991 the
government also began to develop a new incentive framework for the food and agriculture
sector.  The state ordered system was fully dismantled, producer prices and most input priceswere liberalized and almost all subsidies were eliminated.  During 1995, Armenia has made
further significant progress in reforming food and agriculture.  The accelerated privatization
of agroprocessing and achievement in institutional reform can be highlighted as the most
important achievements of the year.  The continuation of market reforms such as the further
liberalization of bread prices, as well as the decision to begin with the privatization of the
state reserve land, are also additional important steps in the right direction.  The most critical
issues that will determine the further success of reforms in the sector and the recovery of foodand agriculture in general are:  (a) the success in restructuring of the agroprocessing
industries;  (b) the speed in establishing a support service environment, particularly a working
financial system to support privatized agriculture, farmers, and processors.  Efforts to
strengthen liberal trade and market policies, to consolidate private farming, and to reform
institutions should also be continued.
Schiff, Maurice and Montenegro, Claudio E.  "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in
Developing Countries:  A Survey of Selected Issues" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research and working
paper;  No. WPS 1485.
Abstract
The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response.  Using both
economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generatesa downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform.  Even though time series
estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioural relations, they do not provide an
adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform.  This is especially true in
developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have includedG/AG/NG/S/16
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agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and
macroeconomic stabilization.  Under those circumstances, parameters values obtained under
the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime.  The authors also argue that
investment in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with,
price policy.  They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes nosense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from
alternative policies.
Ingco, Merlinda D.  "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round:  One Step
Forward, One Step Back?" (Vol. 1).  Po licy, Research working paper No. WPS 1500.
Abstract
After evaluating the Uruguay Round's impact on agriculture and border protection in the next
decade, the author concludes that while there wa s significant reform of the rules - particularly
the conversion of nontariff barriers into tariffs and the reduction and binding of all tariffs - inpractice, trade will probably be liberalized less than expected.  The objective of the Round
was to reverse protectionism and remove trade distortions.  This may not be achieved in
practice, at least not until further reductions are carried out in future rounds of negotiations.
The major exception to this conclusion is in high-income Asian countries, where protection
for major commodities will be significantly reduced.  The tariffication and binding of alltariffs on agricultural products represents a significant step forward.  Liberalization is implicit
because countries are prohhibited from arbitrarily raising tariffs to new higher levels. But
many of the newly established tariffs are so high in many countries as to effectively prohibit
trade.  Patterns of liberalization vary considerably by commodity and by country.  Generally,
the extent of liberalization was diminished by binding tariffs to the base period of 1986-88,when border protection was at a high point. In  most OECD countries, this was worsened by
"dirty tariffication:" the new base tariffs offered even greater protection than the nontariff
barriers they replaced.  Even after the commitments to tariff reductions in the Round, the
ad valorem  measure of the final binding tariffs will remain higher than the average rate of
protection in 1982-93.  A number of developing countries in East Asia, Latin America, and
the Middle East chose to lock in prior liberalization efforts on some products.  But for most
commodities, there will be little actual liberalization, since most developing countries chose
to bind their tariffs at a maximum level.
Amjadi, Azita and Yeats, Alexander  "Nontariff Barriers Africa Faces:  What did the Uruguay
Round Accomplish, and What Remains to be Done?" (Vol.1).  Policy Research working paper;No.WPS 1439.
Abstract
Perhaps the major accomplishment of the Uruguay Round is agreements reached on nontariff
barriers (NTBs).  All NTBs imposed under the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) will be phased
out over 10 years, and all "voluntary" export restraints will be abolished.  OECD countries'
NTBs on agricultural goods will be converted to tariffs and then reduced by an average of 36
per cent.  Agreement was also reached on limiting subsidies and other agricultural export
incentives.  As a result, the profile of OECD nontariff protection Africa faces will changedramatically. Formerly, about 11 per cent of all sub-Saharan Africa exports encountered
NTBs;  now this ratio will fall to about 2 per cent. Formerly, 83 per cent of Reunion's pre-
Uruguay Round exports were affected by NTBs; now none will.  Some African countries,
however, will be largely unaffected by the Uruguay Round's accomplishments.  No NTBs onG/AG/NG/S/16
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energy products were liberalized so coverage ratios for Angola, Congo, ad Nigeria are still
high - but the measures applied (largely quantitative restrictions and special import charges)
apparently do not raise the cost of imports significantly.  The exclusion of fish from the
agreement on agriculture also limited the potential benefits to countries like the Seychelles.
Others simply faced no (or few) nontariff restrictions before the negotiations.  The newdevelopments are regarded as positive for developing countries as a group, although some
countries may incur losses.  Trade in textiles and clothing has been closely regulated for three
decades through MFA quotas.  Phasing these restrictions out will subject African countries to
aggressive international competition.  Whether they can maintain a viable textile and clothing
export sector depends on whether they can achieve reforms aimed at cost-cutting.  The MFA
liberalization is heavily backloaded, with roughly half the restrictions being removed at the
end of 10 years, so there is ample time for adjustment.
Martin, Will and Winters, L. Alan [editors] "The Uruguay Round and the Developing
Economies" (Vol. 1).  World Bank discussion papers;  No. WDP 307.
Abstract
This discussion paper contains thirteen studies designed to assess the economic impact of the
Uruguay Round on the developing economies.  Some of the key conclusions to emerge from
the study include the following: the agriculture agreement achieved a great deal in terms ofdefining rules for agricultural trade, but little in terms of immediate market opening.  The
substantial cuts in tariffs on manufactures in both developing and industrial countries, and the
agreement to abolish the Multifiber Arrangement, will provide important benefits for
developing countries. Cuts in protection on total merchandise trade will increase real incomes
in developing countries by between 1.2 and 2.0 per cent of their GDP in 1992.  Theestablishment of the World Trade Organization will strengthen the world trading system.
Earlier versions of the papers were presented at a conference held at the World Bank in
January 1995.  The analyses contained in this volume are the first in which estimates of the
effects of the Round were based entirely on the actual cuts in protection from previously
prevailing rates achieved by the Round.
1996
"Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy: A Mu lti-Country Analysis - Moldova Technical
Report."
Abstract
The report evaluates Moldova's potential competitiveness for trade of key agricultural
commodities.  The objectives are to:  (a) provide initial information and background for
identification of projects to be funded by the World Bank or other donors;  (b) assist the
government in the design of policies and initiatives to contribute to agricultural growth andtrade.  This report is included in a multi-country analysis (report no. 15960).  Chapter 1 looks
at recent agricultural trends.  Chapters 2 and 3 analyze recent Moldovan macroeconomic and
agricultural policy trends and agriculture restructuring.  The commodities looked at are: sugar
beet and sugar; sunflower and vegetable oil; wheat, flour, and bread; corn; pigs and pork;
poultry and eggs; fruits and vegetables; grapes and wine; and tobacco.  For each commodity,the following data were collected:  trends in supply, use, and trade;  policy issues and
changes; production costs; historically based capacities;  input subsidy net production costs;
and prices and costs adjusted for international comparisons.  Chapter 4 contains a detailed
description of commodity trends and patterns.  Privatization, land reform, governmentG/AG/NG/S/16
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participation, abolition of price control, a flexible exchange rate policy, reduction in
quantitative export restrictions and hard currency regulation are among the measures that
Moldovan authorities should implement to support Moldova's competitive advantage in
agriculture.
Valdes, Alberto  "Surveillance of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy in Latin America During
Major Policy Reforms" (Vol.1).  World Bank discussion papers;  No. WDP 349.
Abstract
Since approximately 1990, most countries in Latin America have embarked on a multilateral
process of trade liberalization for agricultural and non-agricultural products, effectively
putting an end to four decades of import-substitution policies.  Most countries adopted
tariffication, with bound tariffs, eliminating quota restriction and removing export taxes.  This
study examines how agricultural protection has changed since the reforms, what has happened
with real farm prices during trade reform, and the present status regarding tariffs andquantitative restrictions in the various countries.  The analysis identifies areas where
additional reforms are needed.  The report presents a quantitative assessment of trade and
price interventions involving seven commoditie s per country for eight Latin American and
Caribbean countries during 1984-95.  The study includes a discussion on the current trade
policies of these countries in the context of the Uruguay Round Agreement.  Four policyindicators are used, namely the nominal and effective rates of protection, the producer subsidy
equivalent, and the effective rate of assistance.  Gauged annually, these indicators expose
implicit subsidies and taxes in specific co mmodity markets and the resulting (implicit)
income transfers.  Quantification of these instruments and the resulting transparency in
policy-making, can be an effective deterrent against discriminatory treatment in pricing andtrade.
Ingco, Merlinda D.  Mitchell, Donald O. and McCalla, Alex F.  "Global Food Supply Prospects:
A Background Paper Prepared for the World Food Summit, Rome, November 1996 (Vol. 1).
World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 353.
Abstract
This volume examines global food supply prospects over the short and medium term.  It
examines the causes of the recent price increases, reviews the research on the medium-term
outlook, and analyzes the implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement and post-Roundreforms in agricultural policies.  It also examines the cereal import dependence of low- and
middle-income developing countries; and elucidates the current supply situation, showing the
challenge facing the world in the next century.  Despite the short- and medium-term global
food supply prospects appearing relatively good, the longer-term outlook is more uncertain.
For the world to be in position to satisfy twenty-first century food demands, governmentsneed to make well-conceived investments now in agricultural research and rural development,
and craft appropriate policies and institutions.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy:  A Mu lti-Country Analysis - Commodity Trends in
Agriculture:  Production, Gross Margins, and Trade:  The Experiences of Belarus, Moldova,
and Ukraine - 1991-1994" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
This volume represents an overall summary of the Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy :  A
Multi-country analysis.  The core of the study consists of country-specific commodity
analyses that were originally presented in individual country reports (report nos. 15961,
15962, and 15963).  The primary focus of the study is concentrated on the production patterns
and trends in major agricultural commodities in Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.  In addition
to the information on production, additional data on input prices, output prices, technologies,domestic use, trade flows, and processing have been assembled to indicate adjustments in
agriculture during the transition.  The report made the following recommendations to improve
the trading regime:  (a) eliminate or reduce foreign currency management associated with
trade;  (b) eliminate minimum export pricing;  (c) improve trade services; (d) do not allow
customs unions and free trade agreements with the other Commonwealth of IndependentStates (CIS) nations to impede integration into world trading relations;  (e) keep tariffs
uniform and relatively low;  (f) exploit opportunities for specialty crops; and  (g) undertake
deeper institutional reforms needed for full integration into world trade.
1997
Csaki, Csaba;  Lundell, Mark and Shuker, Iain  "Current Status of Agricultural Reforms in
EC4 Countries" (Vol. 1).  EC4NR agriculture policy note;  No. 12.
Abstract
This report gives both an overview and specific analysis of agricultural reforms in EC4
countries in mid-1997 in the form of matrices.  Each country (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus) is assessed on price and market
liberalization, land reform, privatization in agroprocessing and input supply, rural financing,
and institutional framework.  An overall score and cross-country average is also calculated.
DeRosa, Dean A.  "Agricultural Trade and Ru ral Development in the Middle East and North
Africa:  Recent Developments and Prospects" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;
No. PS 732.
Abstract
Despite petroleum's prominence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), agriculture
remains important to most to the region's economies.  And more robust and more dynamic
agricultural growth could significantly boost sustainable economic growth and ruraldevelopment in those countries.  An appropriate avenue for improving agricultural growth is
to expand agricultural exports in MENA countries with appreciable-to-large agricultural
sectors and comparative advantage in cereal grains, agricultural raw materials, fruits and
vegetables, and many categories of livestoc k and dairy products.  But high levels of
protection in many MENA countries, especially for manufactures and some food products,contribute to overvalued exchange rates and a significant bias against agriculture.  Trade
liberalization and other economic reforms to promote agriculture and improve rural welfare in
MENA might be pursued through regional economic cooperation, but should be guided as
much as possible by the principles of "open regionalism" - under which trade concessionsG/AG/NG/S/16
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negotiated between regional trading partners could be extended unconditionally to all trading
partners, including trading partners outside the region.
Francis, Paul A.;  Milimo, John T.  Njobvu, Chosani A. and Tembo, Stephen P.M.  "Listening to
Farmers:  Participatory Assessment of Policy Reform in Zambia's Agricultural Sector" (Vol. ).
World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 375.  Africa region series.
Abstract
This study examines the impact on farmers of the radical changes in agricultural policy which
have taken place in Zambia during the 1990s. Drawing on the findings of a number ofparticipatory surveys and beneficiary assessments, and on quantitative survey data where
available, the paper highlights farmers' own perceptions and priorities regarding constraints to
production and the quality of agricultural services.  Farming systems and the constraints
facing farmers are described both in terms of: resource endowments and allocation (e.g.
climatic and environmental factors, access to land, labor, technical skills, draft power);  andthe quality of public and private agricultural services under conditions of liberalization. The
paper outlines the coping strategies which farmers have adopted in the face of these changes,
including changing farming practices, more reliance on non-farm sources of income, and
modified patterns of exchange and consum ption.  The conclusion presents recommendations
for future action and investigation.
Koester, Ulrich E. and Brooks, Karen M.  "Agr iculture and German Reunification" (Vol. 1).
World Bank discussion paper;  No. WDP 355.
Abstract
This report examines the general course taken by agricultural reforms in East Germany,
which provides the only example in the region in which agricultural output did not decline
during radical adjustment.  The authors found that total agricultural production remained
roughly constant over the period, and the pr oductivity of land and labor in agriculture
increased markedly in four years.  East Germany's transformation is unique, presenting a viewof the nature and speed of agricultural adjust ment when features of the economic environment
external to the sector do not impede the process.  Structural change was rapid, and
productivity in the East increased to equal or surpass that in West Germany in five years.  The
rapid adjustment required enormous transitional payments for severance, social security, farm
investment, relocation, and retirement of margin al land.  Agriculture's adjustment consisted of
changes in farm structure, asset ownership, production technology, and output composition.
Lease rather than sale of land dominated activity on East German land markets.  Leasing
provided needed flexibility for farm size adjustments, as well as lower start-up costs for new
farms. An open trading regime contributed to importing new technology and a rapid rise in
yields. But, employment in agriculture declined by about 80 per cent in the five years afterreunification, and the exit of labor continues.  Further, capital subsidies provided as
transitional assistance have exacerbated labor outflow.  The approach to valuation and
distribution of farm assets led to concentrating the value of assets in the hands of a relatively
small number of people.  Finally, the Common Agricultural Policy reform comprised a
tremendous gain for Eastern German agriculture at a time when large areas would most likelyhave been idled anyway, even without the payments.G/AG/NG/S/16
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"India - The Indian Oilseed Complex:  Captur ing Market Opportunities" (Vol. 1).  World
Development Sources, WDS 1997-2.
Abstract
The government of India set achieving self-sufficiency and food security in the edible oil
sector as an objective.  Sustaining achievement s in the Indian oilseed industry will require the
government to establish a price and market environment in the oilseed complex that
encourages sustained technological advance.  To capitalize on production stability acquired
through diversification, India will have to es tablish a truly nationwide market stimulated by
foreign competition and leading to higher levels of efficiency in marketing and processing.  A
strategy for reform -one that could be self-generating in financial and institutional incentivesand could stimulate significant efficiency gains- would focus primarily on domestic policies
to enhance the performance of marketing and processing.  The reform's goals are:  (1)
improving marketing and distribution of oilseeds and derived products;  (2) improving
technical competitiveness;  and (3) providing the means to mitigate price and crushing margin
risks in a more liberal domestic and foreign trade environment consistent with World TradeOrganization (WTO) rules.  The report reco mmends a five-stage approach to reform:
(1) fine-tuning the external trade regime by establishing rules conforming to those of the
WTO, including recognizing intellectual property rights, which will motivate seed companies
to sell improved varieties;  (2) modernizing the domestic trade and processing policy
environment by monitoring price and trade deregulation of the oilseed complex, andharmonizing and standardizing taxation;  (3) modernizing the market, post-harvest, transport,
and port infrastructure by decentralizing regulatory authority, disseminating price
infrastructure, establishing private investment policy, and encouraging private participation;
(4) improving the regulatory and institutional framework to raise health and quality
performance by tightening national food safety standards and improving monitoring andenforcement capacity.
India - The Indian Oilseed Complex:  Capturing Market Opportunities" (Vol. 2).  World
Development Sources, WDS 1997-2.
Abstract
The government of India set achieving self-sufficiency and food security in the edible oil
sector as an objective.  Sustaining achievement s in the Indian oilseed industry will require the
government to establish a price and market environment in the oilseed complex that
encourages sustained technological advance.  To capitalize on production stability acquiredthrough diversification, India will have to es tablish a truly nationwide market stimulated by
foreign competition and leading to higher levels of efficiency in marketing and processing.  A
strategy for reform -one that could be self-generating in financial and institutional incentives
and could stimulate significant efficiency gains- would focus primarily on domestic policies
to enhance the performance of marketing and processing.  The reform's goals are:  (1)improving marketing and distribution of oilseeds and derived products;  (2) improving
technical competitiveness;  and (3) providing the means to mitigate price and crushing margin
risks in a more liberal domestic and foreign trade environment consistent with World Trade
Organization (WTO) rules.  The report reco mmends a five-stage approach to reform:
(1) fine-tuning the external trade regime by establishing rules conforming to those of theWTO, including recognizing intellectual property rights, which will motivate seed companies
to sell improved varieties;  (2) modernizing the domestic trade and processing policy
environment by monitoring price and trade deregulation of the oilseed complex, and
harmonizing and standardizing taxation  (3) modernizing the market, post-harvest, transport,G/AG/NG/S/16
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and port infrastructure by decentralizing regulatory authority, disseminating price
infrastructure, establishing private investment policy, and encouraging private participation;
(4) improving the regulatory and institutional framework to raise health and quality
performance by tightening national food safety standards and improving monitoring and
enforcement capacity.
"Uzbekistan - Country Assistance Strategy" (Vol.1).
Abstract
This Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Uzbekistan focuses on four key challenges in the
short to medium-term to support sustainable, broad-based development with poverty
reduction.  These are:  (1) liberalizing trade and exchange rate regimes and minimizing
distortions in the financial sector; (2) improving incentives for increased output and
employment, particularly in agriculture;  (3) remo ving inefficiencies in resource utilization in
the municipal services and infrastructure;  and (4) addressing the environmental damageresulting from the mismanagement of natural re sources in the Aral Sea Basin.  These areas
have been chosen because progress in them would have a substantial ameliorating impact on
constraints that bind heavily on Uzbekistan's low income families.  Liberalization of trade,
payments, and domestic trade would be particularly beneficial to the development of small-
and medium-scale enterprises and agriculture, where the best prospects for growth ofremunerative employment reside.  The strategy entails direct poverty reduction interventions
including (1) investing in the provision of drinki ng water supply, sanitation, and health in the
poorest region of the country;  (2) inclusion of this area in the pilot Social Transformation
Fund (FY99);  and (3) inclusion of one of the poorest oblasts in the pilot component of the
health reform project (FY98).
"Albania – Country Assistance Review" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
This Country Assistance Revi ew (CAR) for Albania covers a period from 1992 to 1997 of
IDA (International Development Association) involvement with the Government of Albania
and its development effort.  The CAR's conclusion is that IDA's assistance to Albania was
effective, and the partnership forged with the Government scored some notable successes.
The breakdown in civil order in 1997, and the subsequent destruction of property was a major
setback to all of the development progress achieved.  But good progress was made inagriculture, external debt management, small and medium scale privatization, tax reform and
price and trade liberalization and this has endured.  There were weaknesses in IDA's
prioritization of assistance efforts and the depth and focus of some sector assistance efforts.
Of more fundamental importance was the lack of progress in state institution and public
administration reform.  Lessons drawn from the CAR are presented at a general and a sectorallevel.  This will assist IDA refine its country assistance strategy and future assistance efforts.G/AG/NG/S/16
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1999
Krueger, Anne O.  "Developing Countries and the Next Round of Multilateral Trade
Negotiations" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2118.
Abstract
Developing countries became full-fledged participants in multilateral trade negotiations only
with the Uruguay Round, during which they succeeded in bringing agriculture into the
GATT/WTO, reaching agreement on phasing out the Multi-Fibre Arrangement within ten
years, and beginning work on services, among other things.  Their overriding interest in the
new round is still to ensure the healthy expansion of an open multilateral trading system.Developing countries should seek across-the-board liberalization rather than zero-for-zero
reductions, which tend to favor the interest of industrial countries (which focus on sectors in
which they have comparative advantage) and diminish the support for further cuts.
Liberalization of agricultural trade provides important opportunities.  Developing countries
have a considerable stake in reducing agricultural protection and subsidies and prohibitingagricultural taxes and export quotas.  Of particular interest are agreements covering services -
including, for example, agreements on ways to permit the temporary immigration of
construction workers.  It is important that labor standards not be used to stifle competition
from labor-abundant developing countries - that any agreement about labor standards not
raise the costs of unskilled labor in countries whose comparative advantage lies in exportedproducts that use unskilled labor extensively - and that excessively high product standards not
be imposed.  Developing countries can increase their leverage substantially by forming
coalitions based on common interests in a wide range of areas (as the Cairns group did in the
Uruguay Round).
Hoekman, Bernard Anderson, Kym  "Developing Country Agriculture and the New Trade
Agenda" (Vol.1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2125.
Abstract
A new round of World Trade Organization negotiations on agriculture, services, and perhaps
other issues is expected in late 1999.  To what extent should those negotiations include "new
trade agenda" items aimed at ensuring that domestic regulatory policies do not discriminate
against foreign suppliers?  The authors argue that negotiations about market access should be
given priority, as the potential welfare gains from liberalizing access to agricultural (and
services) markets are still huge, but new issues should be included too.  Including new tradeagenda issues would increase the role of market discipline in the allocation of resources in
agriculture and would encourage non-agricultural groups with interests in the new issues to
take part in the round, counterbalancing forces in favor of agricultural protection.  They also
argue, however, that rule-making efforts to accommodate the new issues should be de-linked
from negotiations about access to agricultural market s, because the issues affect activity in all
sectors.G/AG/NG/S/16
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Csaki, Csaba and Nash, John  "Regional and In ternational Trade Policy - Lessons for the EU
Accession in the Rural Sector" (Vol.1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 434.
Abstract
The European Union (EU) activities for membership accession, include a series of studies,
workshops and seminars, to both facilitate policy and institutional reforms, and disseminate
study results, thus improving analytical skills and policy analysis capabilities in countries for
EU accession.  In cooperation with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World
Bank provides economic analysis and experience, as part of its coordinated activities.  The
major objective of the Workshop was to present the results of the studies on regional and
international trade policy issues, as it relates to experiences and/or implications with regionaltrading agreements, specifically, the Central and Eastern European Free Trade Agreement
(CEFTA) and the World Trade Organization (WTO),  in relation to the membership of the ten
countries under review. Discussions took place regarding the World Bank support in the rural
sector, and, the magnitude of potential benefits was suggested, though dependent on an
enlargement based on adequate design and implementation of agricultural policies.Liberalization of agricultural trade was considered, viewing further openings of European
markets.  Improvement of, and competitiveness in the food and agriculture sector was
identified as a priority task, before effectiveness of the Common Agricultural Policy
instruments takes place.
Nyberg, Albert and Rozell, Scott  "Accelerati ng China's rural transformation" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
This report aims to identify and consolidate in formation on crucial issues that impact on rural
development in China.  China's rural economic achievements of the past two decades - rapid
growth and declining poverty - have been remarkable.  However, replicating these
achievements and improving sustainability during the next two decades will be difficult as
many underlying conditions have changed.  Economic reforms were initiated when supply
shortages constrained growth, but currently, weak demand is more constraining.
Furthermore, the productivity gains are largely exhausted from transition policies andinstitutions; future productivity gains will come from efficiencies, stimulated by market
forces, and improved productivity of scarce water and land resources, through resource
conservation and new technologies.  The rural-agricultural sector will remain dependent on a
robust urban-industrial sector to create jobs and absorb surplus rural and agricultural labor -
thereby permitting the remaining farmers access to additional land resources. An effectivefiscal system, a more efficient financial system, a workable land tenure arrangement with
marketable land-use rights, and improved agricultural investment incentives need to be
fostered.  Continued reform will entail further liberalization of production, pricing, and
marketing policies.  It will also entail strong  government promotion of a market environment
and investments in public services and infrastructure.
"Bulgaria – Agriculture Sector Adjustment Loan Project" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
The Agriculture Sector Adjustment Loan Proj ect (ASAL) supports rapid development of a
more efficient and responsive agricultural sector, in accord with the principles enunciated in
the Government of Bulgaria's medium-term program.  Reforms will occur in the areas ofG/AG/NG/S/16
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pricing, trace, agricultural subsidies and finance, land markets, cereals markets, and
agriculture enterprise privatization.  The reforms will increase domestic marketing
competitiveness by expediting development of a private land market, significantly reducing
the state's role as a marketing and processing intermediary, improving the incentives
environment by eliminating price and trade controls, and reducing subsidized governmentcredit.  This will improve income-earning opportunities for rural people, contribute to rural
employment generation, and help raise rural living standards.  Consumers will benefit from
improved agricultural product quality and avai lability, greater choice, and more efficient
marketing demands.  The most important risks are first, political resistance by powerful
interest groups, and second, that the program will be undermined by a non-supportive
macroeconomic environment.  All conditions have been fulfilled and the ASAL is a one
tranche operation.
"Pakistan – Agriculture Sector Investment Project" (Vol. 1).
Abstract
In accordance with the Country Assistance Strategy, the Agriculture Sector Investment
Project will support liberalization efforts towards output/input markets, particularly for wheat,
cotton, rice, sugar and fertilizers.  The project will link research and extension services to the
farmers' needs, and support the privatization process, by divesting selected public enterprises.The project components include:  (1) policy and institutional reforms, which comprises
liberalization of output prices, such as wheat, and marketing of inputs, such as fertilizers.
Divestiture of the Rice and Co tton Export Corporations will be achieved, to enhance the
privatization process, and the in-house capacity of the economic wing of the Ministry of
Food, Agriculture, and Livestock will be strengthened;  (2) public sector investment, tofinance public investment programs in research, extension, fisheries, rural roads, as well as
livestock and social forestry.  Operations and maintenance costs, will be included;  (3) private
sector development, to provide funds for the establishment of an autonomous National
Agricultural Development Foundation, which will assist the private sector with the provision
of market information, technology, and overseas product promotion, by facilitating
partnerships abroad, while NGO's and women's gr oups will facilitate cost-effective extension
services.
Townsend, Robert F.  "Agricultural Incentives in Sub-Saharan Africa:  Policy Challenges"
(Vol. 1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 444.
Abstract
This study examines the state of agricultural incentives in Sub-Saharan Africa, taking stock of
the current policy environment and its recent evolution.  The global price environment is
examined together with the macroeconomic, export crop, food crop, and fertilizer policies insixteen African countries.  Policy diamonds are constructed as incentive indicators reflecting
the state of macroeconomic and agricultural policies relative to a perceived frontiers.  The
study attempts to determine the factors inhibiting countries from moving towards this frontier.
The study highlights several continuing policy challenges that sub-Saharan Africa faces to
ensure appropriate agricultural incentives to stimulate growth.  These include:  coping withagricultural commodity price decline and fluctuation;  securing access to foreign markets and
in particular meeting the sanitary and phytosanitary requirements;  removing continuing
domestic trade barriers;  stabilizing macroeconomic policies;  enhancing the institutional
framework and the credibility of rules;  removing the remnants of marketing boards in manyG/AG/NG/S/16
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African countries;  removing excessive agricultural taxation and ensuring public rural
investment;  improving transportation infrastr ucture;  encouraging public and private sector
partnership and dealing with aid in input markets.
Kodderitzsch, Severin  "Reforms in Albania Agriculture:  Assessing a Sector in Transition"
(Vol. 1).  World Bank technical paper;  No. WTP 431.  Europe and Central Asia
environmentally and socially sustainable rural development series.
Abstract
Since 1995 agricultural output has stagnated in Albania, despite positive growth early in the
reform process of its economic transition.  Albania has carried out major reforms across a
broad range of agricultural production and marketing.  Policy reforms have been supported
through an overall well-designed agriculture public investment program.  The absence of a
functioning financial sector and associated rural financial services is one of the deficiencies in
the reform program.  Albania is still the poorest country in Europe.  To reduce poverty, futurepublic policy and investment in the agriculture and rural sector should support agriculture
productivity and growth while maintaining sustainable use of natural resources.  Major
opportunities in the medium term include:  (1) favorable geographic location relative to the
European Union; (2) a low wage level;  (3) a literate and well educated rural population;  (4)
resilient private sector initiative in rural areas. Major long-term constraints include:  (a)limited and fragmented agriculture resource base;  (b) extremely limited access to capital and
hence to capital intensive technology;  (c) limited entry to export markets;  and (d) scarce
institutional capacity and resources.  Opening Albania's agriculture to the world will require
public efforts in:  (1) the maintenance of a stable incentive framework;  (2) support to
agriculture productivity; (3) institutional development; (4) rural development; and (5)management of natural resources.
Michalopoulos, Constantine  "Developing Country Goals and Strategies for the Millennium
Round" (Vol. 1).  Policy, Research working paper;  No. WPS 2147.
Abstract
Many developing countries have been reluctant to participate in multilateral trade negotiations
except for those on agriculture and services, topics mandated under previous World Trade
Organization (WTO) decisions.  The author argues that developing countries can gainsignificant benefits from a broader WTO Millennium Round of negotiations but must develop
strategies for participating in it.  Different groups will have different interests, but developing
countries as a group may want to include additional issues in the new Round, especially,
industrial tariffs and trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights.  It may also be to
their advantage to include discussions on trade-related environmental issues and governmentprocurement, if they obtain the institutional support they need to meet their commitments
under any new agreements.  Other topics should be resisted because they are premature or
counterproductive or do not promise net benefits for most developing countries.  The new
Round should be a single undertaking, to maximize tradeoffs across issues and for political
economy reasons: to permit liberalizing forces everywhere to exert pressure on governmentsto liberalize world trade.  But there should not be too many issues, as that would strain the
capacities of the poorer and least developed economies.  In a new WTO Round, developing
countries should be prepared to exchange liberalizing trade concessions on a most-favoured-
nation basis.  Liberalization of their own trade in exchange for improved access to theG/AG/NG/S/16
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markets of their trading partners, most of which are other developing countries, is the only
way to maximize benefits from multilateral trade negotiations.  Efforts to obtain special and
differential treatment should focus on establishing realistic transition periods and technical
assistance to address constraints on their institutional capacity.
"Côte d'Ivoire – Agricultural S ector Adjustment Credit" (Vol. 1)  .
Abstract
The outcome of the project was satisfactory.  The performance of the Bank was fully
satisfactory; however, although the Borrower's performance was generally satisfactory,persistent delays occurred, with poor ownership of reforms in many instances.  Upon public
expenditure discussions, namely trade liberalization, the government's resistance to reform
policies did not convey a strong quantitative evidence to support its position.  The lessons
learned suggest, that although consensus among local stakeholders and external partners
existed, with close coordination in principle, it was only the Bank and the InternationalMonetary Fund who pressed for full liberalization of the coffee/cocoa trade.  Following the
Government's agreement to move ahead, the other donors accepted this reform policy.  This
successful close cooperation among the various partners, was partly due to staff continuity on
both sides.  Furthermore, the Bank's flexibility - agreements' release for the second and third
tranches - became essential to the overall reform efforts, since disbursements were crucial tomeet tight debt schedules.  However, monitoring mechanisms should have been established at
project inception, to measure the impact of reforms.  Likewise, discussion efforts at the
community level would have strongly favoured the plantations' privatization.  Further analytic
work would have balanced the state's fiscal interests against those of producers/consumers.G/AG/NG/S/16
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WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
(i) Completed studies
1994
"The results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.  Market Access for
Goods and Services: Overview of the Results", GATT Secretariat,  November 1994.
The Uruguay  Round negotiations were concerned with two aspects of trade in goods and
services.  First, there was the goal of increasing market access by reducing or eliminating
trade barriers.  This objective was met by reductions in tariffs, reductions in non-tariff support
in agriculture, the elimination of bilateral quantitative restrictions, and reductions in barriers
to trade in services.  Second, there was the goal of increasing the legal security of the new
levels of market access.  The strengthened and expanded rules, procedures and institutions arethe Round's contributions to the second goal.
Part II of this study is concerned primarily with increases in market access for goods.
Because of their quantitative nature, these results lend themselves to a further examination of
the likely impact on the level of world trade in goods and world income.  The "binding" ofreductions in tariffs and certain other interventions - a key element in the security of market
access, and one which can be described in quantitative (tabular) terms - is also covered in
Part II.
Part III focuses on the Uruguay Round's market access results in the services area, that is, on
the commitments in countries' services schedules under the new General Agreement on Trade
in Services (GATS).  In some respects, the services schedules are similar to the goods
schedules examined in Part II.  Both contain elements of increased market access, together
with elements of more secure market access in  the form of commitments not to increase the
level of restrictions covered by the schedules.  Though to a much smaller extent than in thegoods area, it is also possible to describe the results in the services area in quantitative
(tabular) terms.  In other respects, however, the respective schedules are very different.  In
particular, there is no meaningful way to quantify the size of the reduction in barriers to trade
in services - no parallel, for example, to the 40 per cent reduction in developed countries'
tariffs on industrial goods - which is why services could not be included in the estimates ofthe increase in trade and income from the Uruguay Round.
While the schedules of commitments on goods and services provide legal security for the
market access contained in the schedules, their value also depends on rules limiting
alternative forms of protection.  Part IV is a brief summary of those parts of the Uruguay
Round agreement that strengthen and extend the rules, procedures and institutions governing
(a) other kinds of measures - such as subsidies, technical barriers and discriminatory internaltaxes - that could be used to restrict market access and thus offset part or all of the increased
market access contained in the schedules of commitments, and (b) procedures for resolving
disputes over the interpretation of countries' obligations, both those in the schedules and those
involving rules and procedures.  By providing a framework for the monitoring of trade
policies, for regularly scheduled ministerial-level meetings and for future negotiations, thestrengthened institutional arrangements also help countries anticipate and defuse trade
conflicts that might otherwise lead to violations of WTO obligations - that is, to illegal
reductions in market access.
The following list of selected highlights from the study begins with the updated estimates of
the impact of the liberalization of trade in goods on world income and world trade in goods.G/AG/NG/S/16
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These estimates are based on a general equilibrium model of the world economy, elaborated
and applied by the GATT Secretariat, that links industries together in chains from primary
goods, through higher stages of processing, to the final assembly of consumption goods.
Sectors are also linked through various ec onomy-wide constraints such as the supply of
labour, capital and land, and there are linkages between countries.  Three versions of themodel have been used, with different assumptions about the nature of competition in domestic
markets, economies of scale, the degree of product differentiation and - a dynamic
consideration - the extent to which the income gains in turn stimulate savings and investment.
1996
Francois, J. and McDonald, B.  "The Multilateral Trade Agenda: Uruguay Round
Implementation and Beyond", No. ERAD-96-012.
In this paper we provide a quantitative examination of initiatives for post-Uruguay Round
liberalization in "traditional" GATT/WTO market access areas, as a counterpoint to the recent
policy literature on newer issues such as the environment, competition policy, and labourstandards.  We emphasise issues like industrial tariff liberalization, agricultural trade
liberalization, recent proposals for free trade in information technologies, and an expanded
Agreement on Government Procurement (AGP), along with the benefits of fully
implementing the Uruguay Round Agreements.  We provide a quantitative assessment of the
relative magnitudes of various liberalization proposals using a computable model of theglobal economy.
Francois, J.  and Martin, W.  "Multilateral Trade Rules and the Expected Cost of Protection",
No. ERAD-96-010.
Protection unconstrained by rules often varies substantially over time. Rules-based
disciplines, like OECD industrial tariff bindings negotiated under GATT since 1947, and like
bindings introduced in the Uruguay Round for new areas such as agricultural, services, and
developing country industrial protection, constrain this variability.  We examine the effects of
such constraints on the expected cost of protection, emphasizing the impact on both the first
and second moments of the distribution of protec tion.  As an application we examine Uruguay
Round agricultural bindings, finding reductions in the expected cost of protection even where
the bindings are above previous protection levels.
Francois, J., McDonald, B. and Nordström, H.  "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round
Assessments", No. ERAD-96-003.
In this paper, we provide a broad overview of the computable general equilibrium (CGE)
literature on the Uruguay Round, detailing the policy experiments of various studies and
differences in model structures and relating these to the overall pattern of results.  Wesupplement this overview with discussion of implementation and offsetting factors.  Overall,
the literature points to significant potential gains from the Uruguay Round, particularly from
NTB liberalization.  Strict monitoring and enforcement of NTB-related provisions would
yield significant benefits, while lax implementation would imply significant missed
opportunities.G/AG/NG/S/16
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1997
Laird, S.  "WTO Rules and Good Practice on Export Policy", WTO Working Paper No: TPRD-
97-001.
The WTO has increased international disciplines on export policy, but there is still scope for
the use of export subsidies and other measures to promote exports.  Under macroeconomic
and trade reforms of the last decade, many countries have reduced or eliminated import
measures which operate as an implicit tax on their own exports.  While more needs to be done
in this regard, various export promotion measures other than subsidies may be useful as a
transitional device for countries which are proceeding in a phased manner towards more
outward oriented policies.  It is also important to identify and eliminate internal constraints toexport, including fiscal burdens and bureaucratic procedures.  Such efforts can be
complemented by continued efforts to open external markets in trade negotiations.  However,
trade liberalization and domestic deregulation also contribute to efforts to increase
productivity, together with macroeconomic stabilization.
1998
Auboin, M. and Laird, S.  "EU Import Measures and the Developing Countries", WTO
Working Paper No. TPRD-98-001.
The EU's import policies towards developing countries are complex, stemming from
important sectoral and country variations in policy.  Average tariffs are modest, and, while
there are tariff peaks and escalation in some areas of interest to developing countries, these
are being reduced as a result of the implementation of the results of the Uruguay Round.  The
use of non-tariff measures has fallen, particularly as a result of agricultural tariffication, and isbeing further reduced in textiles and clothing.  The elimination of VERs has not led to an
increase in the use of alternative measures.  Contingency protection falls more heavily in
chemicals, iron and steel, certain textile items and certain electrical consumer goods and on
Asian, Central and Eastern European and former  Soviet Union countries.  The operation of
various factors appears to be working to mitigate the use of trade defence measures in recent
years, helping to counter pressures that seem likely to arise as liberalization proceeds.
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