WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATIONWT/DS238/R
14 February 2003
(03-0855)
Original:  English
ARGENTINA – DEFINITIVE SAFEGUARD MEASURE ON
IMPORTS OF PRESERVED PEACHES
Report of the Panel
The report of the Panel on Argentina – Definitive Safeguard Measure on Imports of Preserved
Peaches  is being circulated to all Members, pursuant to the DSU.  The report is being circulated as an
unrestricted document from 14 February 2003 pursuant to the Procedures for the Circulation and
Derestriction of WTO Documents (WT/L/452).
Note by the Secretariat :  This Panel Report shall be adopted by the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) within
60 days after the date of its circulation unless a party to the dispute decides to appeal or the DSB decides byconsensus not to adopt the report.  If the Panel Report is appealed to the Appellate Body, it shall not beconsidered for adoption by the DSB until after the completion of the appeal.  Information on the current statusof the Panel Report is available from the WTO Secretariat.WT/DS238/R
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................. .......................1
II. FACTUAL ASPECTS ............................................................................................................. ....................1
1. Regulatory framework......................................................................................................... ..................2
2. Safeguards investigation ..................................................................................................... ..................2
3. Customs duties and countervailing measures ................................................................................... ....4
III. PARTIES' REQUESTS FOR FI NDINGS AND RECO MMENDATIO NS........................................5
IV. ARGUMENTS OF THE PARTIES .................................................................................................... ...5
A. P ROCEDURAL ARGUMENTS ........................................................................................................................5
1. Working Procedures of the Panel .............................................................................................. ...........5
B. S UBSTANTIVE ARGUMENTS ........................................................................................................................7
1. Unforeseen developments: Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on
Safeguards ..................................................................................................................... ................................7
(a) Whether there was a prior finding or demonstration as a matter of fact of the existence of "unforeseen
developments".................................................................................................................. ...........................................7
(b) Whether the facts on the record show th at there were unforeseen developments ............................................10
(i) What are unforeseen developments?........................................................................................... ................10
(ii) Whether there were unforeseen developments................................................................................. ...........11
Whether the increase in imports was a recovery................................................................................. .............11
Which were the unforeseen de velopments in this case? ........................................................................... .......13
(iii) When should the deve lopments be unforeseen?............................................................................... ...........13
2. Determination of an increase in imports.  Article XIX.1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1, 3.1 and
4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards.......................................................................................... ..............14
(a) Whether there was an increase in im ports in absolute or relative terms...................................................... .....15
(b) Whether the 1994/1996 sector al study was of relevance ....................................................................... ..........18
3. Determination of threat of serious injury.  Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1, 3.1,
4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of th e Agreement on Safeg uards ............................................................................... .......19
(a) Whether the CNCE evaluated all of the relevant factors listed in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on
Safeguards having a bearing on the situation of the domestic industry.......................................................... ...........20
(i) Productivity................................................................................................................ .................................21
(ii) Capacity utilization....................................................................................................... ..............................22
(iii) Employment................................................................................................................ ................................22
(b) Whether the CNCE provided a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the evidence gathered on the
evaluated relevant listed injury factors justifies a finding of "threat of serious injury"..................................... ........23
(i) Rate and amount of the increase in imports of the product at issue in absolute and relative terms.  Share ofdomestic market taken by increased imports..................................................................................... ...................25
(ii) Changes in the level of sales, in volume and value......................................................................... ............26
(iii) Production................................................................................................................ ...................................28
(iv) Profits and losses ......................................................................................................... ...............................29
(v) Other considerations ........................................................................................................ ...........................31
(c) Whether the CNCE considered all relevant injury f actors not listed in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on
Safeguards.  Industry readjustment ............................................................................................. ..............................32
(d) Whether the CNCE based its finding of "threat of serious injury" merely on conjecture or remote possibilityand failed to demonstrate adequate ly that it was clearly imminent .............................................................. .............33
4. Demonstration of the existence of a causal link.  Articles 2.1, 3.1 and 4.2(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards. .................................................................................................................... ..............................34
(a) Whether Argentina followed any rule with resp ect to the determination of the causal link.............................35
(b) Whether there were other objective and quantifiable factors that the CNCE did not analyse..........................36
(i) Whether CNCE analysed other factors that appear in the technical report .................................................37
Imports from Greece............................................................................................................ ............................37
Cyclical nature of imports and net importer status ............................................................................. .............38
Change from the status of importer to a more export-oriented position.......................................................... .39
Climatic factors............................................................................................................... .................................39
(ii) Whether there were other factors which the CNCE should have analysed that do not appear in the
technical report............................................................................................................... ......................................40
Devaluation of the euro  against the dollar ..................................................................................... ..................40WT/DS238/R
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Argentine economic situation ................................................................................................... .......................41
(c) Whether the upward trend in imports coincides with negative trends in other injury factors ..........................41
5. Permissible extent of application of the measur e. Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards .........42
6. Investigation report.  Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguar ds. ....................................................45
7. Notification.  Article 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards................................................................48
V. ARGUMENTS OF THE THIRD PARTIES ...........................................................................................51
A. EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES......................................................................................................... ......51
1. Standard of review and r ecord of investigation ............................................................................... ...51
2. Unforeseen developments...................................................................................................... ..............51
3. Increase in imports.......................................................................................................... ....................53
4. Threat of serious injury..................................................................................................... ..................55
5. Permissible extent of application of the measure ............................................................................. ...55
B. UNITED STATES................................................................................................................ ...................55
1. Unforeseen developments...................................................................................................... ..............55
2. Increase in imports.......................................................................................................... ....................56
3. Threat of serious injury..................................................................................................... ..................57
4. Causal link .................................................................................................................. ........................58
VI. INTERIM REVIEW.............................................................................................................. ................59
VII. FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... ..........................62
A. P RELIMINARY MATTERS ..........................................................................................................................62
1. Measure at issue............................................................................................................. .....................62
2. Relevant documents........................................................................................................... ..................63
3. Standard of  review ........................................................................................................... ...................64
4. Burden of proof .............................................................................................................. .....................64
5. Order of the Panel's analysis ................................................................................................ ..............64
B. C LAIMS ............................................................................................................................... .....................64
1. Unforeseen developments...................................................................................................... ..............64
2. Increase in imports.......................................................................................................... ....................71
(a) Periods of analysis ......................................................................................................... ..................................71
(b) Competent authorities' determination ........................................................................................ ......................72
(c) Evaluation of the determination............................................................................................. ..........................73
(i) Increase in imports in absolute terms....................................................................................... ...................73
(ii) Increase in imports in relative terms ...................................................................................... .....................79
3. Threat of serious injury..................................................................................................... ..................81
(a) Period of analysis.......................................................................................................... ...................................81
(b) Competent authorities' determination ........................................................................................ ......................82
(c) Evaluation of the determination............................................................................................. ..........................83
(i) All relevant factors........................................................................................................ ..............................83
Capacity utilization........................................................................................................... ...............................84
Productivity ................................................................................................................... ..................................84
Employment ..................................................................................................................... ...............................85
(ii) Reasoned and adequate explanation .......................................................................................... .................85
(iii) Clearly imminent .......................................................................................................... ..............................88
(iv) Remote possibility ......................................................................................................... .............................89
4. Causal link .................................................................................................................. ........................91
5. Judicial economy............................................................................................................. ....................92
VIII. CONCLUSIONS A ND RECOMMENDAT ION.................................................................................93
IX. ANNEX....................................................................................................................... ............................95
A. A BBREVIATIONS USED FOR DISPUTE SETTLEMENT CASES REFERRED TO IN THE REPORT ..........................95WT/DS238/R
Page 1
I. INTRODUCTION
1.1 On 14 September 2001, Chile requested consultations with Argentina pursuant to
Article XXIII:1 of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs of 1994 (the "GATT 1994"), Article 4
of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Govern ing the Settlement of Disputes (the "DSU") and
Article 14 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  This request was related to the definitive safeguardmeasure applied by Argentina on imports of peaches preserved in water containing added sweetening
matter, including syrup, preserved in any othe r form or in water, imported under MERCOSUR
Common Nomenclature (MCN) tariff codes 2008.70.10 and 2008.70.90.
1
1.2 The consultations took place on 2 November 2001, but the parties failed to reach a mutually
satisfactory solution.  On 6 December 2001, Chile requested the Dispute Settlement Body (the
"DSB") to establish a panel, in accordance with Articles 4 and 6 of the DSU in order to examine the
definitive safeguard measure applied by Argentina on imports of preserved peaches.2
1.3 At its meeting on 18 January 2002, the DSB established a Panel in accordance with Article 6
of the DSU.3  At that meeting, the parties agreed that the Panel should have standard terms of
reference.  The terms of reference of the Panel were, therefore, the following:
1.4 "To examine, in the light of the relevant provisions of the covered agreements cited by Chile
in document WT/DS238/2, the matter referred to the DSB by Chile in that document, and to makesuch findings as will assist the DSB in making the recommendations or in giving the rulings provided
for in those agreements."
4
1.5 On 16 April 2002, the parties agreed to the following composition of the Panel: 5
Chair: Ms. Elaine Feldman
Members: Mr. Jorge Castro Bernieri
Mr. Mateo Diego-Fernandez
1.6 The European Communities, Paraguay and the United States reserved their rights to
participate in the Panel proceedings as third parties.
1.7 The Panel met with the parties on 10 and 11 July 2002 and on 11 September 2002.  The Panel
met with the third parties on 11 July 2002.
1.8 The Panel submitted its interim report to the parties on 21 November 2002.  The Panel
submitted its final report to the parties on 16 December 2002.
II. FACTUAL ASPECTS
2.1 This dispute concerns the imposition of a definitive safeguard measure by Argentina on
imports of peaches preserved in water containing added sweetening matter, including syrup, preserved
in any other form or in water, imported under MCN tariff codes 2008.70.10 and 2008.70.90.
                                                     
1 See WT/DS238/1.
2 See WT/DS238/2.
3 See WT/DSB/M/117.
4 See WT/DS238/3.
5 Ibid.WT/DS238/R
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1. Regulatory framework
2.2 Argentina incorporated the Agreement on Safegu ards into its domestic legislation by means
of Law No. 24,425 of 7 December 1994.6  The Argentine regulatory framework for the conduct of
safeguard investigations and the eventual imposition of safeguard measures is contained in Decree
No. 1059/96 of 19 September 1996.7  Law No. 19,5498 (Law on Administrative Procedure of the
Republic of Argentina), together with its Regulatory Decree No. 1759/729, regulates the
administrative proceeding in general and is of suppletory application when there are gaps in the
specific legislation.10  Argentina has notified these laws, regulations and administrative procedures
relating to safeguard measures to the WTO Committee on Safeguards.11
2.3 Decree No. 1059/96 provides that a safeguard measure may be applied only after an
investigation has been conducted by the competent authority, which is the Minister of the Economy.12
On receipt of an application for the initiation of a safeguards investigation, the Secretariat of Industry,
Trade and Mining, which is within the Ministry of the Economy (the "ME"), refers the matter to the
Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade13 and to the National Foreign Trade Commission (the "CNCE")14
who prepare a technical report prior to the final determination15 (the "technical report") on whether or
not there exist increased imports of the product in question which have caused or threaten to cause
serious injury.16  The CNCE is the authority responsible for the analysis, investigation and regulation
in the determination of injury to domestic production.17  After examining their reports18, the
Secretariat of Industry, Trade and Mining submits a report to the Minister of the Economy indicating
whether or not a safeguard measure should be adopted.19  In the present case that report was
Record No. 781.20  The Minister then issues a resolution, which is published in the Official Bulletin,
thereby providing public notice of the decision adopted as a result of the investigation.  Thisresolution considers the different reports or determinations issued by the competent authorities in
accordance with the prerogatives granted by the legislation in question, and introduces the
administrative act containing a summary of the results of the injury investigation conducted and the
reasons which led to the decision to adopt a safeguard measure, as well as the modalities of its
adoption.
21 In the present case that resolution is Resolution ME No. 348/2001 of 6 August 2001,
published in the Official Bulletin of 7 August 2001.
2. Safeguards investigation
2.4 On 27 November 2000, the Argentine Chamber of Industrial Fruit Production of Mendoza
("CAFIM") requested the predecessor of the Secret ariat of Industry, Trade and Mining, within the
ME, to initiate an investigation for the application of a safeguard measure on imports of peaches
                                                     
6 Published in the Official Bulletin of Argentina (the "Official Bulletin") by the Ministry of External
Relations and Culture, 5 January 1995.
7 Published in the Official Bulletin by the Ministry of the Economy, Public Works and Services,
24 September 1996.
8 Published in the Official Bulletin by the Ministry of Justice, 27 April 1972.
9 Ibid.
10 See Article 2 of Law No. 19,549.  See footnote 8 of the present report.
11 See G/SG/N/1/ARG/1, G/SG/N/1/ARG/2, G/SG/N/1/ARG/3 and G/SG/N/1/ARG/3/Suppl.1.
12 See Articles 1 and 7 of Decree No. 1059/96.  The Panel understands that the Ministry of the
Economy was formerly known as the Ministry of the Economy, Public Works and Services.
13 The Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade is part of the SICyM within the ME.
14 The CNCE is a decentralized agency of the SICyM, established by Decree No. 766 of 12 May 1994.
15 "Informe Técnico previo a la Determinación Final".
16 See Article 10 of Decree No. 1059/96.
17 See Article 1 of Decree No. 766/94.
18 See Article 11 of Decree No. 1059/96.
19 See Article 17 of Decree No. 1059/96.
20 Record No. 781 is included in Exhibit CHL-1.
21 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
Page 3
preserved in water containing added sweetening matter, including syrup, preserved in any other form
or in water, imported under MCN tariff codes 2008.70.10 and 2008.70.90 ("preserved peaches").22
2.5 On 2 January 2001, by Record No. 711, the Board of Directors of the CNCE decided by
majority of its members that the application contained sufficient evidence of threat of serious injury to
the domestic industry caused by imports, thereby meeting the conditions laid down by the regulationsin force to implement possible provisional safeguard measures.
23
2.6 On 5 January 2001, the predecessor of the Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade issued a
technical opinion where it found that there was a causal relationship between the increase in imports
and the threat of serious injury to the domestic industry and that the proposed adjustment plan was
viable.  It concluded that sufficient reasons existed in terms of timing, merit and advisability to justify
the opening of an investigation and the adoption of a provisional safeguard measure. 24
2.7 Accordingly, Resolution ME No. 39 of 12 January  2001, published in the Official Bulletin on
18 January 200125, announced the opening of a safeguards investigation of imports into Argentina of
peaches, preserved in water containing added sweetening matter, including syrup, preserved in any
other form or in water, imported under MCN tariff codes 2008.70.10 and 2008.70.90, establishing
provisional minimum specific duties amounting to US$0.50 per kg. net for a period of 200 days.26
2.8 On 15 January 2001, Argentina notified the WTO of the initiation of an investigation
concerning the imposition of a safeguard measure and gave prior notice, under Article 12.4 of the
Agreement on Safeguards, of the adoption of a provisional safeguard measure on preserved peaches.27
2.9 On 20 March 2001, a public hearing was held so that the parties involved in the investigation
could set forth their arguments.28
2.10 The CNCE conducted the investigation taking into account information received from
domestic producer companies in response to a CNCE questionnaire.  The CNCE sent its questionnaire
to all the companies registered as producers with CAFIM and received replies from six, of which five,
representing 59 per cent of production in 2000, were verified, according to the Annex to Record 781.
Those five surveyed companies29 are La Colina, IAM, Cart ellone, Benvenuto and Arcor.30
2.11 On 2 July 2001, the Board of Directors of the CNCE31 met and, having concluded that the
domestic industry was faced with a threat of serious injury within the meaning of Article 4 of the
Agreement on Safeguards and that this was happening in the context of unforeseen developments,
found that the conditions justifying the application of a safeguard measure had been satisfied.32
                                                     
22 See G/SG/N/8/ARG/4/Suppl. 1 and Annex to Record No. 781, page 1 in Exhibit CHL-1.
23 Ibid.
24 See Resolution No. 348/2001, in Exhibit CHL-2.
25 Published in the Official Bulletin of Argentina, 18 January 2001.
26 See G/SG/N/8/ARG/4/Suppl. 1 and Annex to Record No. 781, page 1, in Exhibit CHL-1.
27 See WT/DS/238/1.
28 See G/SG/N/8/ARG/4/Suppl. 1 and Annex to Record No. 781, page 1, in Exhibit CHL-1.
29 The surveyed companies ("relevamiento"), accord ing to the Annex to Record No. 781, are the
companies that replied to the questionnaire for domestic producers.  A company called Nieto was removed fromthe survey upon verification because the information it provided could not be co rrelated with the supporting
documentation.  See Annex to Record No. 781, page 5.
30 See Annex to Record No. 781, page 5 in Exhibit CHL-1.
31 The Panel notes that according to Article 5 of  Decree No. 766/94, the CNCE Board of Directors
consists of one Chairman and 4 Members.  However, Record No. 781 shows that two directors, including the
Chairperson, voted in favour of the safeguard measure and two directors voted against.  Since, pursuant toArticle 11 of Decree No. 766/94 the chairperson holds a casting vote, the CNCE thus voted in favour of thesafeguard measure.
32 See Record No. 781, page 1 and 2 in Exhibit CHL-1.WT/DS238/R
Page 4
Record No. 781  is the minutes of that meeting of the Board of Directors, and is part of investigation
file No. 94/00, which includes technical report No. 08/01 as an integral part.33
2.12 On 17 July 2001, Argentina notified the WTO Committee on Safeguards pursuant to
Articles 12.1(b), 12.1(c) and Article 9, footnote 2, of the Agreement on Safeguards, on its making a
finding of serious injury or threat thereof caused by increased imports, its taking a decision to imposea definitive safeguard measure and the non-application of the safeguard measure to South Africa,
respectively.
34
2.13 In Resolution No. 348/2001, published in the Official Bulletin on 7 August 2001, the Minister
of Economy stated that after having ascertained that there had been an increase in imports in
circumstances such as to cause a threat of serious injury to domestic production and after the analysis
by the Secretariat of Trade of that Ministry, he concluded that the legal conditions and other reasons
existed in terms of timing, merit and advisability to justify the application of a safeguard measure.Accordingly, the Minister of Economy ordered the closing of the safeguard investigation and imposed
a definitive safeguard measure consisting of minimum specific duties on imports of the product at
issue for a period of three years starting from the entry into force of the provisional measure and
amounting to US$0.50 per kg/net during the first year, US$0.45 during the second year and US$0.40
during the third year.
35
3. Customs duties and countervailing measures
2.14 At the time Argentina began to apply the provisional safeguard measure, it applied a customs
tariff of 16.5 per cent on imports of preserved peaches, but a preferential tariff of 11.5 per cent for
imports originating in Chile, in accordance wi th an Economic Complementarity Agreement No. 35.
During the safeguard investigation and prior to th e imposition of the definitive measure, the applied
customs tariff increased to 30 per cent then settled at 28 per cent (19.6 per cent for Chile).  In March
2002, Argentina restored the tariff to its original level of 16.5 per cent (11.5 per cent for Chile).36
2.15 Argentina imposed countervailing duties on imports of peaches in syrup from the European
Union in accordance with Resolution MEyOSP No. 06/96, which entered into force on 9 January
1996.  The countervailing duty was imposed at a differential rate, according to the country of origin,on the f.o.b. import price for a period of five year s (18.12 per cent for Italy, 12.55 per cent for Spain
and 12.13 per cent for the other EU member States). At the beginning of 2002, Argentina reviewed
the countervailing duties and decided to maintain them but at a single rate of 10.5 per cent for all EU
member States.
37
                                                     
33 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 3.7.
34 See  G/SG/N/8/ARG/4, G/SG/N/10/ARG/3, G/SG/N/11/ARG/3, G/SG/N/8/ARG/4/Suppl.1,
G/SG/N/10/ARG/3/Suppl.1.
35 See Resolution No. 348/2001 in Exhibit CHL-2 and G/SG/N/8/ARG/4.
36 See Argentina's response to question No. 9 of the Panel (" At the time of the investigation and the
time of adoption of the safeguard measure, what was the tariff rate applied to imports of preserved peaches
from Chile?  At the same times, what were the tariff  and countervailing duties applied to imports of preserved
peaches from the various member States of the European Communities? "), footnotes 52 and 53 to Chile's first
written submission and paragraphs 59 to 60 of Chile's rebuttal.
37 See Argentina and Chile's response to question No. 10 of the Panel (" In 1996, Argentina applied
countervailing measures to imports of preserved peaches fr om Greece.  Are these measures still in place?  If so,
have they remained at the same level? ").WT/DS238/R
Page 5
III. PARTIES' REQUESTS FOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
3.1 Chile requests the Panel:
(a) to conclude and find that the safeguards investigation and the safeguard measure are
inconsistent with Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 and with Articles 2.1, 3.1,
4.1(b), 4.2(a), 4.2(b), 5.1 and 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards;
(b) to conclude and find that these breaches have caused nullification and impairment of
the benefits accruing to Chile under those Agreements; and
(c) to rule on all of the claims presented in order to ensure that Argentina does not
continue to violate these Agreements as it has done.38
3.2 Argentina requests the Panel:
(a) to dismiss Chile's claims and to find that Argentina complied with the obligations
imposed by Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 and with Articles 2.1, 3.1, 4.1(b),4.2(a), 4.2(b), 5.1 and 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
39
IV. ARGUMENTS OF THE PARTIES
4.1 This section includes a summary of the main arguments of the parties which are of relevance
to the findings of the Panel.
A. PROCEDURAL ARGUMENTS
1. Working Procedures of the Panel
4.2 Paragraph 12 of the Working Procedures adopted by the Panel for the present proceedings
reads as follows:
"Within two weeks following the first subs tantive meeting of the Panel with the
parties, each of the parties shall provid e the Panel with an integrated executive
summary of the facts and arguments as presented to the Panel in their first written
submissions, their oral presentations at the first substantive meeting and answers to
questions.  Within two week s following the second substantive meeting of the Panel
with the parties, each of the parties shall provide the Panel with an integrated
executive summary of the facts and arguments as presented to the Panel in theirrebuttals, their oral presentations at the second substantive meeting and answers to
questions.  Each summary should not exceed 25 pages.  Third parties are requested to
provide the Panel with an executive summary of the facts and arguments as presented
to the Panel in their written submissions and oral presentations within 7 days
following the special session set aside for th ird parties to present their views.  The
summary to be provided by each third party should not exceed 5 pages.  The
executive summaries will be used only for the purpose of assisting the Panel indrafting a concise factual and arguments section of the Panel report so as to facilitate
a timely translation and circulation of the Panel report to the Members.  They shall
not serve in any way as a substitute for the submissions of the parties or third parties.
                                                     
38 See final conclusion in Chile's first written submission, page 42.  See also Chile's rebuttal,
paragraph 71.
39See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 160, Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 41 and
Argentina's second oral statement, page 17.WT/DS238/R
Page 6
The Panel may, in light of further developments, including the extent of the questions
from the Panel , allow the parties and third parties to submit longer summaries."
4.3 On 10 May 2002, Argentina addressed a letter to the Panel indicating that the obligation to
provide integrated executive summaries as required in the above paragraph of the Working
Procedures amounted to an additional procedural burden since it limited the time available to theparties for the preparation and delivery of their allegations and, accordingly, diminished the due
process guarantees, more so in the case of developing countries as provided in Article 12.10 of the
DSU.  Argentina therefore requested the Panel to set out the legal grounds for its decision to require
executive summaries and the implications of the pa rties' obligation, in light of the special and
differential treatment due to developing countries.  Argentina also reserved its right not to provide the
integrated executive summaries.
4.4 By a letter dated 16 May 2002, the Panel responded to Argentina, with a copy to Chile,
indicating that its decision to adopt its working procedures after consultation with the parties was
based on Article 12.1 of the DSU.  Specifically, the Panel believed that executive summaries would
be an invaluable tool in preparing high-quality factual and argument sections of its report and it had
therefore chosen to seek them, as permitted by Article 12.2 of the DSU.  It recalled that on many
occasions the Appellate Body had instructed dispute settlement panels to adopt detailed workingprocedures for the sake of the efficiency and transparency of the panel process, and it was the
Appellate Body which had initiated the practice of requesting executive summaries.  The Panel said
that other panels now commonly require executive su mmaries in disputes, including those to which
developing country Members are party.
4.5 In its reply, the Panel further indicated that it was indeed mindful of its duty under
Article 12.10 of the DSU, in examining this complaint against a developing country Member, to
accord sufficient time for Argentina to prepare and present its argumentation.  The Panel believed that
the time-limits in the timetable, which were longer than those in Appendix 3 of the DSU, accorded
Argentina sufficient time to do this.  At the organizational meeting, the Panel had given the parties an
opportunity to suggest alternative approaches to ex ecutive summaries and, after consulting with them,
it had decided exceptionally not to require a single executive summary but rather two consecutive
summaries, one after each substantive meeting.  The Panel did not believe that the preparation of
executive summaries should create an unreasonable burden on parties and therefore did not believe
that they reduced the guarantees of due process.  The only time-period that could be affected was that
for the preparation of written rebuttals, which was st ill within the limits set out in Appendix 3 of the
DSU.  It added that executive summaries should actually reduce work for both Panel and parties at the
interim review stage as the parties were likely to be  more satisfied with the descriptive part of the
draft report if it had been drafted with the benefit of executive summaries.
4.6 Accordingly, the Panel urged the parties to comply with the working procedures as adopted.
In any event, the Panel made clear that it would issue the descriptive part of its report based on the
written submissions and written versions of oral st atements and answers to questions submitted by the
parties.
4.7 At the second substantive meeting, the Panel agreed to extend the deadline for submission of
the second executive summary due to public holidays in Chile.  Argentina and Chile both provided
integrated executive summaries after both substantive meetings within the agreed deadlines.WT/DS238/R
Page 7
B. SUBSTANTIVE ARGUMENTS
1. Unforeseen developments: Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the
Agreement on Safeguards
(a) Whether there was a prior finding or demonstration as a matter of fact of the existence of
"unforeseen developments"
4.8 Chile  submits that neither Record No. 781 nor the technical report contains a finding or
demonstrates, as a preliminary matter of fact, the existence of unforeseen developments as stipulated
in Article XIX.1(a) of GATT 1994.  Chile claims th at this violates Article XIX.1(a) of GATT 1994
and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards. 40 41
4.9 Argentina  replies that both Record No. 781 and the technical report demonstrate and
establish in a reasoned and adequate manner the existence of unforeseen developments.42  Argentina
contends that its investigating authority did establish and demonstrate, as a matter of fact and lawprior to the adoption of the safeguard measure, the existence of "unforeseen developments" in
conformity with the obligation laid down in Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994.
43
4.10 Chile  argues that nowhere in the Annex to Reco rd No. 781 is there any indication that the
CNCE conducted a prior and specific analysis of whether or not there had been unforeseen
developments and that it provided a reasoned and adequate explanation – i.e. that it explicitlyestablished – how the facts analysed supported its determination of the existence of such
developments.
44  Chile further contends that the technical report, like the Record and its Annex,
contains no analysis relating to the previous condition of "unforeseen developments".45
4.11 Chile claims that an analysis of the considerations that guided the directors who voted in
favour of the application of the safeguard measure reveals that the regulatory framework used in theanalysis of the evolution of imports is Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards, which states
how the competent authorities should investigate whether increased imports have caused or are
threatening to cause serious injury to the domestic industry, and that nowhere in the analysis is there
so much as an indirect mention of Article XI X:1(a) of the GATT 1994 and its prerequisite of
unforeseen developments.
46
4.12 Argentina replies that the Argentine investigating authority applied the WTO rules since they
have been incorporated in Argentine domestic law through Law No. 24,425, regulated by Decree
No. 1059/96.  Argentina believes that Record N o. 781 and the technical report reveal that the
investigating authority applied the WTO rules in th is case.  Argentina stresses that the implementing
authority stated from the very beginning of its analysis that the investigation would be conducted in
accordance with the regulations laid down in the framework of Article XIX of GATT 1994. 47  In this
connection, Argentina explains, the Record No. 781 states that "… having concluded that thedomestic industry is facing a threat of serious injury  within the meaning of Article 4 of the Agreement
on Safeguards and that this is happening in the context of unforeseen developments, the CNCE finds
                                                     
40 In support of this argument, Chile quotes the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 72.
41 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.1.
42 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 30.
43 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 32.
44 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.7(b).
45 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.8.
46 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.7(a).
47 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 34; Argentina's first oral statement, paragraph 4.WT/DS238/R
Page 8
that the conditions justifying the application of a safeguard measure under that Article have been
met." 48
4.13 In response to question No. 4 of the Panel49, Argentina  explains that there is no difference
between the word "context" of unforeseen developm ents which is used in both Record No. 781 and
the technical report and the word "result" of unfore seen developments as provided in Article XIX:1(a)
of the GATT 1994.  Argentina indicates that, for the purposes of this case, the term "context" should
be understood as being identical to the term "result".
4.14 Chile  replies that Argentina's above response is an ex post facto  clarification since it cannot
find any such explanation or clarification in the Annex to Record No. 781.  Moreover, Chile argues,
the two words are different, and they have different meanings.  In Chile's view, Argentina's
explanation is an attempt to justify a clear inconsistency committed by the CNCE, and is not
consistent with the meaning and scope that emerges from the actual Annex to Record No. 781.  If the
directors did not specify a particular definition for the word "context", we can only conclude that it
was used in its ordinary and obvious meaning, which is not the consequence or effect of something
(result), but a given situation, or a set of circumstances or conditions.50
4.15 According to Chile , in order to comply with the obligations contained in Article XIX.1(a) of
GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards:
(a) it is not enough for the Annex to Record No. 781 to state, under the heading "Legal
Framework of the Commission's Report", that  the imposition of a safeguard measure
is regulated by the Agreement on Safeguards and that this Agreement establishes
rules within the framework of Article XIX of the GATT 1994;
(b) nor is it enough that in Record No. 78 1, the directors who voted in favour of
imposing the measure concluded that the domestic industry was facing a threat of
serious injury within the meaning of Article 4 of the Agreement on Safeguards and
that this was happening in a context of unforeseen developments.  This Record, which
contains the final decision of the CNCE, i.e. its recommendation, must be a faithful
reflection of the CNCE's prior analysis and evaluation on the basis of the factsinvestigated;
(c) nor is it enough that the evolution of imports in terms of volume and price, or the
conditions of competition, were considered in Record No. 781 and the Annex to the
technical report, since these comments were clearly made by the CNCE in relation to
the requirement of increased imports in absolute or relative terms and the
determination of whether or not there was a threat of serious injury to the domestic
industry.
51
4.16 Argentina  recalls the Panel's argument in US – Lamb52 to the effect that "[w]hile the Panel
correctly stated that the demonstration of 'unforeseen developments' does not require the precise
terminology of 'unforeseen developments' to be used, it is nevertheless necessary that the
circumstances … are in substance identified as such".  Argentina understands that this was not
                                                     
48 Argentina refers to Annex to Record No. 781, page 11.  See Argentina's first written submission,
paragraph 35.
49 Namely, " Why do Acta 781 and the Expediente (page 11) refer to the "context" of unforeseen
developments, and not the "result" of unfor eseen developments?  Is there a difference? ".
50 Chile refers to the meaning of the word context ( contexto ) according to the Dictionary of the Real
Academia Española de la Lengua .
51 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs 10(a), 10(b) and 10(c).
52 Argentina refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 61, which refers to the Panel
Report, paragraph 7.31.WT/DS238/R
Page 9
rejected by the Appellate Body and, accordingly, the CNCE Report in the present case demonstrates
as a matter of fact the existence of unforeseen developments for the application of a safeguard
measure.  In support of this view, Argentina refers to four excerpts of Record No. 781: in the Annex
containing the joint vote of the CNCE directors who voted in favour of the safeguard measure, page 6
which refers to imports and pages 9 and 10 which refer to world production and a trend in prices;  inthe technical report, page 47 which refers to the European Union's output and exports and pages 73
and 74 which refer to world production, export s and stocks (Exhibits ARG II, III and IV).
53  Argentina
stresses that both the increase in world production and exports and the increase in world stocks are
referred to in the Annex to the Record and in the technical report.  However, in response to question
No. 6 of the Panel54, Argentina indicates that the finding on unforeseen developments in the
competent authorities' report can be found in three of these excerpts – the excerpt on pages 9 and 10
from the joint opinion of the CNCE directors who vo ted in favour of the safeguard measure, and the
two excerpts on page 47 and on pages 73 and 74 from the technical report.55
4.17 Chile  says that Argentina's citation of pages 73 and 74 of the technical report illustrates its
lack of objectivity in its attempt to demonstrate that it did comply with its obligations under
Article XIX.1(a) of GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  Chile argues that
the quotation from pages 73 and 74 is incomplete because Argentina fails to point out that thestatement was made by a member of CAFIM (the  applicant), named COPAL, which did not respond
to the questionnaire and whose remarks do not appear  to have been verified by the CNCE.  Secondly,
Chile adds, the quotation is also incomplete becaus e Argentina fails to point out that COPAL does not
refer to the evolution of imports from the European  Union to Argentina, but  only to the evolution of
imports into other markets from the European Union, not Argentina.
56
4.18 In Chile 's view, in order to comply with the obligations laid down in Article XIX.1(a) of the
GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, it is essential that the competent
authorities analyse and examine beforehand, and hence independently and specifically57, whether
there were circumstances which, having developed in an unforeseen manner, resulted in imports in
such increased quantities and under such conditions as  to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to
the domestic industry in question. Chile adds that the analysis must be adequate and sufficient in
terms of demonstrating, not implicitly but explicitly, the existence of this prior condition in the file of
the investigation. 58  In Chile's view, the comments of the directors that voted in favour of imposing
the measure by no means constitute a prior, adequate, reasoned and independent evaluation of the
"unforeseen development" requirement.  Their analysis is biased, out of context, and in direct
contradiction with the conclusion reached by the investigating authority.59
4.19 Regarding page 47 of the technical report, Chile  argues that: (i)  it should have focused on
Greece, as the main origin of imports, rather than the European Union;  (ii) it took 1998 as a base year
which was not a representative year;  and (iii) Argentina should have taken account of what the
                                                     
53 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 39 to 44.
54 Namely, " Where is the finding on unforeseen developmen ts in the competent authorities' report? ".
55 See Argentina's response to question No. 6 of the Panel.  See also Argentina's first written
submission, paragraphs 39 to 45.
56 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 12.
57 In response to question No. 26 of the Panel (" Can Chile explain why it believes that a finding on the
existence of unforeseen developments must be "specific and independent" ("en forma específica eindependiente")? "), Chile explained that the specificity and independence of a finding on the existence of
unforeseen developments is based on the requirement that the developments in question be examined and
identified as such  in the report of the competent authorities.  According to Chile, this is the only way to establish
that a Member has fulfilled its obligation to demonstrate the existence  of this condition before a safeguard
measure is applied.  The above notwithstanding, the competent authorities must also explain how theinvestigated facts support their determination.
58 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 10(c).  See also Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 4.
59 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 11.WT/DS238/R
Page 10
investigating authority stated on pages 57 and 58 of the technical report which speak of a recovery of
supply in 1999, a similar level of supply in 2000 and lower levels of production in 2000.60
4.20 Argentina  replies that the procedure followed by the investigating authority met the
requirements of Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards and that, pursuant to Article 13 of Decree
1059/96, the administrative act providing for the init iation of the investigation came into force as from
its publication in the Official Bulletin.61  Article 3 of Decree 1059/96 stipulates that all of the
interested parties, including the representatives of the exporting countries, shall have access during the
course of the investigation to all of the information contained in the file, except information that is
confidential.  Furthermore, once the investigati on is completed, the competent implementing authority
issues a resolution, published in the Official Bulletin, providing public notice of the decision adopted
as a result of the investigation which in this case was Resolution ME No. 348/2001, published in the
Official Bulletin, which outlines the results of the injury (threat of injury) investigation conducted aswell as the reasons which led to the decision to adopt a safeguard measure and the modalities of its
adoption.  Argentina concludes that Chile had access to the investigation procedures, that it had the
possibility of making such observations as it deemed necessary at the appropriate stage in the
proceedings, and that Argentina acted in conformity with Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
Argentina notes that Chile did not make any observations during the proceedings.
62
(b) Whether the facts on the record show that there were unforeseen developments
4.21 Chile  also claims that the facts considered by the CNCE do not prove, by and of themselves,
that there were unforeseen developments.63
(i) What are unforeseen developments?
4.22 As regards the concept of unforeseen developments, Chile refers to the interpretation by the
Appellate Body of the ordinary meaning of the ex pression "as a result of unforeseen developments"
where it provided that the developments as a result of which a product is being imported in such
increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to
domestic producers must be unexpected.64
4.23 Argentina  submits that the Appellate Body in Argentina – Footwear (EC)  found that the
clause "as a result of unforeseen developments" mu st be interpreted to mean that the developments
which led to a product being imported in such increased quantities and under such conditions as to
cause or threaten to cause serious injury to domestic producers must have been unexpected.  As
regards the meaning of the terms "unexpected" or "unforeseen", the Appellate Body understands
unforeseen to be synonymous with unexpected, i.e. it refers to developments that were not expected or
foreseen at the time the obligation was incurred.65
4.24 For Chile , different unforeseen developments must unquestionably be the cause of, or
precede66, imports in such increased quantities, absolute or relative, and under such conditions as to
                                                     
60 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 11 to 13.
61 Argentina makes a reference to its response to question No. 1 of the Panel.
62 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 1 to 5.
63 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.10.
64 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.11.
65 Appellate Body Report, Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 91.
66 In response to question No. 27 of the Panel (namely, " Could Chile clarify its view that unforeseen
developments must "be the cause or precede" ("ser la caus a o el antecedente") an in crease in imports, in the
light of the finding by the Panel in US – Lamb which rejected a so-called two-stage causation test?  (SeeWT/DS177/R, paragraph 7.16) "), Chile explained that the Panel's finding in US – Lamb on the so-called two-
stage causation test does not in any way counter or contradict the assertion that unforeseen developments mustbe the "cause of, or precede", an increase in imports.  As stated by the Panel in its Report, "unforeseenWT/DS238/R
Page 11
cause or threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic industry that produces like or directly
competitive products.  Nor can there be any question that the demonstration of unforeseen
developments must appear in the actual report of the competent authorities.  In Chile's view, this is
clear from the first part of Article XIX:1(a) of  GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1 and 3.1 of the Agreement
on Safeguards, and has been established by the Appellate Body.67 68
4.25 In response to questions Nos. 7 and 8 of the Panel69, Chile  explains that Article XIX.1(a) of
the GATT 1994 and Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Sa feguards establish a cause-effect relationship
which requires, on the one hand, that one or more developments take place in an unforeseen manner,
and on the other hand, that as a result of such unforeseen developments, a product be imported into
the territory of another Member in such increased quantities, absolute or relative to domestic
production, and under such conditions as to cause or to threaten to cause serious injury to the
domestic industry that produces like or directly competitive products.
(ii) Whether there were unforeseen developments
Whether the increase in imports was a recovery
4.26 For Chile , it is clear that the CNCE considered that the "unforeseen developments" condition
correspond to a sharp and unexpected increase in imports, which took place entirely in the most recent
past.70  Chile notes that in different parts of the technical report, the investigating authority points out
that the historical levels of imports of preserved peaches in Argentina were seriously disrupted during
the period 1997/1998 as a result of severe climatic conditions which affected the primary production
of preserved peaches in Greece, the world's leading producer and exporter.  In view of this disruption,
the authority determines that imports experienced a recovery rather than an increase in the period
1999/2000.71  Chile contends that in spite of this finding, the CNCE, analysing only the trends for the
most recent past (1999/2000), conc ludes that the increase in total imports was sharp and that the
domestic industry faced a threat of injury in a context of unforeseen developments.  Chile argues that
after an isolated interruption of imports as a result of climatic conditions affecting the leading world
producer and exporter, a recovery of those imports can, or should reasonably, be expected.  Thus, in
Chile's view, it is not objectively possible to find that there were unforeseen developments.Consequently, Chile concludes that the CNCE failed to examine this requirement objectively on the
basis of the results of the investigation as reflected in the technical report.
72
                                                                                                                                                                    
developments" are an element or a requir ement distinct from increased imports per se .  The Panel notes that "it
may be sufficient for a showing of the existence of this 'factual circumstance' that ' unforeseen developments'
have caused  increased imports to enter 'under such conditions' and to such an extent as to cause serious injury or
threat thereof".  As emerges from the preceding reply, the Panel (a) starts from the premise that the competent
authorities must demonstrate the existence of "unforeseen developments" before a safeguard measure is applied;
(b) the developments in question must be examined and id entified as such  in the report of the competent
authorities;  and (c) as Chile asserts in its Rebuttal, th ese developments must be the cause of, or precede, imports
in such increased quantities, absolute or relative, and und er such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause
serious injury.
67 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Reports, Korea – Dairy,  paragraphs 83-85;  Argentina –
Footwear (EC), paragraphs 90-92;  and US – Lamb , paragraph 72.
68 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 5.
69 Namely, " Does "unforeseen developments" mean developmen ts occurring after the negotiation of the
relevant tariff concession which it w ould not be reasonable to expect that the Argentine negotiators could and
should have foreseen at the time when the concession was negotiated?  When were those negotiations in thiscase? " (question No. 7);  " At the time of the negotiations of the relevant tariff concession, what were the
reasonable expectations of the Argentine negotiators with respect to the market for preserved peaches,
including prices, production and stocks? " (question No. 8).
70 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 10.
71 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.12.
72 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.14.WT/DS238/R
Page 12
4.27 Argentina replies that Chile's quotations from the technical report (pages 32 and 58) are
biased.  It explains that the reference in the CNCE technical report to the "recovery" of imports was
not made in a contextual vacuum:  the report also points (on the basis of USDA data) to a high level
of leftover stocks in Europe.  Argentina considers that if the Europeans have that capacity to generate
stocks, it can be assumed that the effect of climatic conditions on harvests will be more moderate.Indeed, the Record also mentions this fact based on USDA information.
73  Argentina also points out
that Chile is mistaken in stating that "after an isol ated interruption of imports . . . a recovery of those
imports can, or should reasonably, be expected" when, in this particular case, an unprecedented and
unexpected situation had arisen in conjunction with  a sharp increase of almost 300 per cent in the
level of world stocks (see Exhibits ARG-III and ARG-IV). 74
4.28 Chile  contends that Argentina75 is trying to distort the scope and meaning of an objective fact
recorded and analysed by the investigating authority  in the technical report.  According to Chile, the
authority determined that the increases in imports of preserved peaches into Argentina in the period
1999/2000 (the last two years of the investigation pe riod) reflected a recovery of those imports, whose
historical levels had been seriously disrupted during the period 1997/1998 as a result of severe
climatic conditions which affected the primary production of preserved peaches in Greece, the world's
leading producer and exporter.  In its view, the CNCE openly contradicts this fact, which was
recorded in the technical report itself, when it concludes that an analysis of the most recent past
(1999/2000) reveals a sharp increase in imports and that the threat of injury was occurring in a context
of unforeseen developments.76  Furthermore, Chile argues, Argentina's explanations are merely an ex
post facto  analysis which does not appear anywhere in the Annex to Record No. 781 or the technical
report, and which cannot alter or remedy the fact th at the CNCE failed to provide an adequate and
reasoned demonstration prior to the imposition of the measure.  Chile states that nowhere in the
technical report or its Annex is there any record of the information which Argentina is now submitting
to the Panel as Exhibits ARG-III and ARG-IV.77  Chile further contends that the file of the
investigation reveals that the measure imposed by Argentina was basically aimed at imports of
preserved peaches from their two main origins: Greece and Chile.  Thus, Chile argues, the foreseenand expected recovery of imports as recorded by the investigating authority is not linked to world
stocks, but to the isolated and particular situation affecting Greece as the leading world producer and
exporter of the product under investigation in 1997 and 1998.
78
4.29 Argentina replies that Chile is re-interpreting the conclusions of the investigating authority,
arguing that the said authority had detected a recovery of imports only.  Argentina also responds to
Chile's claim that the information contained in Ex hibits ARG-III and ARG-IV cannot be found in the
technical report or in its annex.  In fact, Argentina argues, the information contained in ExhibitsARG-II and ARG-IV can be found on pages 47, 48, 53, 59, 61, 64, 66, 68, 70 and 72 of the technical
report.
79
4.30 Argentina further submits that the "recovery" of imports is also related to the imposition of
countervailing duties on peaches from the European Union as of January 1996, a factor that should be
taken into account with respect to the evolution of imports, and one which Chile fails to mention.80
4.31 In reference to the above, Chile submits that Argentina provides no arguments or
explanations regarding the implications of this relationship between the recovery of imports and the
countervailing duties for the purpose of evaluating whether or not there were unforeseen
                                                     
73 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 47.
74 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 48.
75 See paragraph 4.27 of the present report.
76 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs 13 to 14.
77 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 15(c).  See also Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 4.
78 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 15(d).
79 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 7 to 8.
80 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 46.WT/DS238/R
Page 13
developments.  According to Chile, even if Argentina were to provide an explanation during what
remains of the proceedings, it would be dealing with an ex post facto  analysis which does not appear
anywhere in the Annex to Record No. 781 or the technical report, and which cannot alter or remedy
the fact that the CNCE failed to provide an adequate and reasoned demonstration prior to the
imposition of the measure. 81 82
4.32 Argentina replies that, although the application of the countervailing duties may have
succeeded in reducing the flow of imports from  the European Union by eliminating the unfair
competition element, they were unable to alleviate any of the circumstances constituting unforeseen
developments.  Indeed, Argentina adds, given the objective pursued in applying countervailing duties,
it could not be otherwise.83
Which were the unforeseen developments in this case?
4.33 Argentina contends that the investigating authority's determination of "unforeseen
developments" was in fact corroborated by the file; indeed, the authority made the determination by
establishing three circumstances constituting unforeseen developments: (a) increased production as a
result of the exceptional Greek harvest; (b) substa ntial increase in world stocks; and (c) a downward
price trend.84  In response to question No. 28 of the Panel85, Argentina indicated that the authorities
demonstrated the existence of unforeseen developments on pages 6, 9 and 10 of their report.
4.34 In response to question No. 5 of the Panel86, Argentina  confirmed that it does not allege that
increased imports themselves constitute an unfore seen development.  However, it adds, if the
"conditions under which the preserved peaches were being imported, or something else" refers to the
low prices, the surplus harvest in Greece which exceeded the average for the entire decade, and the
high concentrations of stocks, then yes, there were unforeseen developments.87
(iii) When should the developments be unforeseen?
4.35 Chile contends that the reference point to determine whether certain developments are
unforeseen, is the concessions negotiated under the WTO, and in this specific case, during the
Uruguay Round.  However, it adds, a series of developments that were not foreseen during the
negotiations can generate imports in such increased quantities as to cause or threaten to cause injury
to the domestic industry, leading to the adoption of a safeguard measure.  The unforeseen
development must form part of the investigation on the application of a safeguard measure. 88
4.36 Also in response to questions Nos. 7 and 8 of the Panel89, Argentina  explains that that the
"unforeseen developments" in this case occurred after the relevant tariff concession had been
negotiated.  Argentina argues that at the time the concessions were granted, the negotiators could not
have foreseen the developments that took place.
                                                     
81 Chile makes a reference to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 72.
82 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 15(a).
83 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 14 to 15.
84 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 9.
85 Namely, " In Argentina's answer to question 5 posed by the Panel and in paragraph 9 of its written
rebuttal, Argentina indicates what the competent authorities considered to be the unforeseen developments inthis case.  Where in their report did the competent aut horities show that these developments were unforeseen?".
86 Namely, " Does Argentina allege that increased imports themselves, the conditions under which the
preserved peaches were being imported, or something else constituted unforeseen developments? ".
87 See Argentina's response to question No. 5 of the Panel.
88See Chile's response to questions Nos. 7 and 8 of the Panel.
89 See footnote 69 of the present report.WT/DS238/R
Page 14
4.37  Chile  replies that, regardless of Argentina's response, the analysis on when and by whom the
developments were unforeseen cannot be found anywhere in the remarks of the CNCE directors that
voted in favour of imposing the measure.  Chile notes that the Uruguay Round took place between
1986 and 1994, and the WTO Agreement entered into force on 1 January 1995. Argentina
incorporated, in its domestic legislation, the Final Act of the Uruguay Round and the MarrakeshAgreement on 5 January 1995.  Chile claims that, despite the above, it cannot find, either in
Argentina's response or in the "file of the investig ation", any indication or record whatsoever of what
Argentina's concession was  on canned peaches when it was negotiated, when it was granted, or what
the reasonable expectations of the Argentine negotiators were with respect to the preserved peaches
market, including prices, production, inventories and exports at that moment or period, andabove all,
with respect to the "price" factor, since according to the "file of the investigation" this would appear to
be the determining factor in the alleged increased imports and the alleged threat of serious injury tothe domestic industry.
 90
4.38 Argentina submits that the negotiators could not reasonably have been expected to foresee
that abnormal circumstances, such as the record production of 1992/1993, would become the rule
rather than the exception.91  In response to question No. 31 of the Panel92, Argentina clarified that the
Argentine negotiators could not have foreseen that an exceptional case such as 1992/1993 mightrecur, and hence it was that they opted for the leas t trade-distortive alternative.  Indeed, the tariff
applied to the product in question was 35 per cent.  Moreover, Argentina adds, the Agreement on
Safeguards applies specifically to situations of injury under fair trading conditions which, owing to
their exceptional nature, are difficult to predict.
4.39 Chile  replies that the "record" world production of preserved peaches in 1992/1993 of which
Argentina speaks in its reply is based on an assertion by the applicant, CAFIM, which, in turn, uses
World Horticultural and U.S. Export Opportunities as a source.  Nowhere in the technical report can
Chile find any indication that the CNCE investigatin g authority verified that information or checked
on its reliability for validation purposes.  In Chile's view, if the CNCE itself only considered imports
of preserved peaches from the European Union and Chile
93, Argentina's reply, in addition to referring
to the reasonable expectations of its negotiators with respect to a world production indicator, should
have addressed these expectations with respect to the two main origins, or should, at least, have
discussed how one or more specific world production indicators implied unforeseen developments
with respect, at least, to prices, production, inventories and exports in Chile and the European Union
(chiefly Greece).94
2. Determination of an increase in imports.  Article XIX.1(a) of GATT 1994 and
Articles 2.1, 3.1 and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards
4.40 Chile  claims that an examination of the file of the investigation reveals that Argentina did not
demonstrate that during the period of investigation (1996/2000), preserved peaches were being
"imported in such increased quantities95, absolute or relative to domestic production, and under such
                                                     
90 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 17-18.
91See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 7 and 8 of the Panel.
92 Namely, " Given the fluctuations in world production of preserved peaches, as evidenced by record
production in 1992/93, why did the Argentinean negotiators in the Uruguay Round not expect such fluctuationsin the future? ".
93 Chile clarifies that the safeguard measure excludes imports of preserved peaches from MERCOSUR
States Parties and South Africa.
94 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 19-20.
95 In paragraph 4.29 of its first written submission, Ch ile indicates that, after having demonstrated that
Argentina imposed a definitive safeguard measure withou t there having been increased imports, in absolute or
relative terms, it is not necessary to address the issue of  whether the CNCE also considered this alleged increase
in terms of its quantity or magnitude - in such increased quantities - as the requirement must be understood in
the light of the Article XIX of the GATT 1994 and the Agreement on Safeguards.WT/DS238/R
Page 15
conditions"  as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic industry that produces like
or directly competitive products.96 Chile also alleges that the CNCE failed to provide a reasoned and
adequate explanation of its determination in the file of the investigation.97
4.41 Argentina , on the contrary, submits that the increase in imports was both absolute and
relative.98  It contends that imports increased in both absolute and in relative terms inasmuch as they
rose from 3,568 tons in 1998 to 7,271 tons in 1999 and then to 12,181 tons in 2000.  According to
Argentina, these volumes represented relative annual increases of 103.7 per cent and 68 per cent
respectively99 (Exhibits ARG-VII and ARG-VIII).100  With regard to import volumes and as a
percentage of domestic production, Argentina notes that a sharp increase of 10 per cent is observed
between 1999 and 2000.  Moreover, Argentina states that  the growth rate of that indicator (imports as
a percentage of production) was 90 per cent for 2000 compared with the previous year.101
(a) Whether there was an increase in imports in absolute or relative terms
4.42 As regards a determination of an increase in imports in absolute terms,  Chile  contends that
the growth of imports during the two last years of the import period investigated by the Argentine
authorities (1996/2000) reflects a foreseen and expected recovery of historical levels, which had been
disrupted by severe climatic conditions that affected the production and exports of the product under
investigation, particularly in Greece.  Moreover, Chile states that if total imports over the entireinvestigation period are considered, imports for the year 2000 reached approximately 12,120 tons,
while in 1996, they reached approximately 14,401 tons. In other words, the volume imported in 2000
was 16 per cent lower than the volume imported in 1996.
102  According to Chile, the facts recorded in
the technical report and its annex do not support the CNCE's determination.  Chile further alleges that
neither Record No. 781 nor the technical report contain a substantiated, reasoned and adequateanalysis explaining how, on the basis of what facts, and why Argentina arrived at this determination
in the way that it did.
103
4.43 As regards a determination of an increase in imports in relative terms, Chile indicates that, as
in the case of the lack of an absolute increase in imports, when one considers the most recent part of
the investigation period from beginning to end in the context of the data and trends for the entireperiod, and analyses the structure of apparent consumption of preserved peaches during 1996, one
arrives at the same conclusion:  i.e. the growth in apparent consumption of imported preserved
peaches recorded in 1999 and 2000 is merely a recovery by consumption of its historical levels, and
cannot objectively be qualified as a relative increase, as the CNCE has done.
104  Chile observes that in
its technical report, the investigating authority st ates that "during the first three years of the
investigation period, sales of the domestic product accounted for approximately 90 per cent of
apparent consumption, a share which fell to 85 per cent in 2000.  Although in absolute terms, sales ofthe domestic product decreased in 1998, their share of 93 per cent of apparent consumption was the
maximum recorded during the investigation period.  During that year, imports from Chile fell, while
imports from Greece remained at historically low levels."  Chile argues that this behaviour of imports
from the main origins was due to adverse climatic conditions mentioned above.
105
                                                     
96 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.15.
97 See Chile's first written submission, section heading IV.2.1, page 10.
98 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 61.
99 Argentina refers to the technical report, Table No. 2, sheet 1439 and Table No. 15.2, sheet 1477.
100 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 61.
101 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 62.
102 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.16.
103 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.17.
104 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.23.  It cites statistics from a sectoral study, the
subject of arguments summarized in the section below.
105 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.19.WT/DS238/R
Page 16
4.44 Chile  alleges that the CNCE directors’ analysis of increased imports in relative terms is based
exclusively on data corresponding to what it deems to be the most recent past (1997/2000) and fails to
evaluate this data in the context of the whole investigation period (1996/2000).  It considers the
evolution of imports during the investigation period  (1996/2000) only with respect to the analysis of
increased imports in absolute terms, but not with re spect to the analysis of the increase in relative
terms.  The year 1996, which is omitted from the analysis, reflects a trend of crucial importance to the
adequate and objective analysis of this indicator.  Also, according to Chile, the file of the investigation
contains no substantiated, reasoned and adequate analysis explaining why and on the basis of what
facts the CNCE arrived at its determination of an in crease in imports in relative terms in the way that
it did.106
4.45 Argentina  contends that Chile's above statements reflect a misinterpretation of certain
matters.  Argentina considers that Chile proceeds from the false premise that the implementingauthority acted improperly in considering an investigation period (1996/2000)
107 and finding that there
was an increase in imports in a period that did not coincide exactly with that investigation period, but
fell within that period.  Argentina is of the view that this interpretation by Chile is not substantiated by
any rules or regulations, either domestic or under the WTO, or by WTO precedent.  In particular, the
Agreement on Safeguards does not stipulate a period which must obligatorily be taken to determinewhether there are increased imports, nor does Argentine legislation differ from the Agreement on
Safeguards in this respect.  Regarding Argentine legislation, Decree No. 1059/96 requires that
applicants for the initiation of an investigation s hould supply data on imports relating to the five most
recent complete years substantiating a significant increase, in absolute or relative terms, in the product
at issue.  However, Argentina argues, this obligation concerns the applicant for the initiation of aninvestigation only, and not the implementing authority.  In order to support its views, Argentina refers
to the Appellate Body Reports on Argentina – Footwear (EC)
108 and US – Lamb.109 110  Argentina
maintains in addition that the investigating auth ority acted in accordance with WTO precedents,
inasmuch as those precedents establish that it is the most recent period that must be taken into account
for purposes of the application of a safeguard measure.111
4.46 Chile points out that although the competent au thorities should attach importance to data
from the most recent period, they should not consider such data in isolation from the data pertaining
to the entire period of investigation.  Otherwise, Chile argues, it is impossible to understand
objectively the real significance of short-term trends in the most recent data.112 113  Chile explains that
, in the case of the CNCE's determination, the di rectors who voted in favour of imposing the measure
made their finding of alleged increased imports in absolute or relative terms on the basis of data from
the end of the period (1999/2000) and taking 1998 as a base year.114  According to Chile, there can be
no question that if 1998 is taken as a base year, any determination of increased imports is bound to be
lacking in objectivity and in fact highly questionable, since 1998 is not a year which is representative
                                                     
106 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.22(a), (b) and (c).
107 In response to question No. 12 of the Panel (" Statistics for various years appear in Record No. 781
and its Annex and the technical report. Could Argentina clarify what was the period of investigation? ")
Argentina confirms that the gathering of import data covers the period 1996-2000.
108 Argentina refers to the Appellate Body Report, Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraphs 130 to 131.
109 Argentina refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 137.
110 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 54 to 59.
111 See Argentina's first oral statement, paragraph 11.
112 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraphs 137 and 138.
113 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 29.
114 In response to question No. 34 of the Panel (" Please refer to paragraph 12 of Argentina's second
oral statement.  Does Argentina share Chile's point of view that the base year for the determination of anincrease in imports was 1998?  Can Argentina confirm that increases were measured in 1999 over 1998, and2000 over 1999? ") Argentina confirmed that it used 1998 as a base year for the determination of an increase in
imports.WT/DS238/R
Page 17
of the normal behaviour of the imports in question.115  The file of the investigation shows that imports
of preserved peaches in Argentina are cyclical owing to their association with market fluctuations
affecting the leading producer and exporter of the product under investigation, Greece.  In 1997 and
1998, following unforeseen climatic circumstances, Greece suffered a substantial loss in its capacity
to produce and export preserved peaches.  This isolated situation involved a disruption of thehistorical share of Greek imports in the Argentine market, both in absolute and in relative terms
(apparent consumption), as represented by the first year of the investigation period, 1996.
116
According to Chile, this comes out clearly when th e CNCE directors make their finding of an alleged
increase in imports in absolute and relative terms during 1999 and 2000.  It is obvious to Chile that a
comparison of imports during those years with the situation in 1998 will inevitably show strong
increases towards the end of the period, when the process of recovery by imports of their historical
levels began.  If, on the other hand, the CNCE directors had examined the data from 1999 and 2000without isolating it from the data of 1996, its conclu sion, objectively, would have had to be the same
as that reached by the investigating authority in th e technical report, i.e. that the increase in imports
during 1999 and 2000 reflected a recovery, in both absolute and relative terms, of their normal and
historical levels that had been disrupted starting in 1997.
117  118
4.47 According to Chile , for the determination of increased imports to qualify as objective,
unbiased and well founded rather than subjective, biased and unfounded, it is not enough for the
authority concerned merely to announce that its investigation will cover a period of five years and
then, upon making its determination, to consider the data from the most recent past (1999/2000) only,
to compare it with data for a year that is not representative of the normal behaviour of those imports
(1998) and to isolate it from data for a year that does represent normal behaviour (1996).119 Chile
argues that  Argentina did not manage to explain satisfactorily why its competent authorities excluded
1996 from the analysis and why 1998 would in fact be objectively representative of subsequent
trends.  What is more, Argentina never explained why the CNCE excluded, in the ITDF and its
Annex, all information on apparent consumption for 1996.120
4.48 Argentina  contests Chile's interpretation that what was occurring was simply a recovery by
Greek peach imports of their historical levels which were represented by 1996 and insists that what
the industry was facing was not a hypothesis of recovery by imports of their historical levels, but
"unforeseen developments".121  As regards 1996, Argentina contends that countervailing duties were
applied to peaches from the EU since the month of January.  Hence, the flow of imports from that
origin must be considered to have been affected.  As can be seen in page 10 of the Annex to Record
No. 781 and contrary to what Chile claims, the investigating authority did take account of the impact
of the countervailing duties. 122  In response to question No. 33 of the Panel123, Argentina clarified that
Resolution MEyOSP No. 06/96 of 3 January 1996 introduced countervailing duties on imports of
peaches from the European Union.  This resolution entered into force on 9 January 1996 upon
publication in the Official Bulletin.  The countervailing duties continued to be applied during the
investigation period relevant to file CNCE No. 94/ 00.  The flow of imports was affected through the
neutralization of the subsidy component of the imports from the European Union.
                                                     
115 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 30.
116 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs 18 to 19.
117 See technical report, pages 32, 57 and 58.
118 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 31.
119 See Chile's second oral statement, paragraph 16.
120 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 32.
121 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 18 and 19.
122 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 20.
123 Namely, " Please refer to paragraph 20 of Argentina's written rebuttal.  Could Argentina indicate
the exact date in January 1996 on which the countervailing measure entered into force?  Please confirm that thecountervailing measure remained in place for the dura tion of the investigation period relevant to file CNCE No.
94/00.  Could Argentina explain how the countervaili ng measure affected the flow of imports during that
investigation period?" .WT/DS238/R
Page 18
4.49 In response to question No. 15 of the Panel regarding the representativeness of the statistics
for 1997 and 1998124, Argentina  indicates that in 1997 and 1998 total Argentine imports fell by
55 per cent and 45 per cent respectively, owing to severe climatic conditions that affected world
production and, consequently, trade in the product in question.  Argentina explains that an analysis of
average f.o.b. prices shows that they increased in 1997, as did the prices of the main exporter: Greece.In 1998, Argentina adds, such prices continued to rise, though to a lesser extent on average, but in the
case of the aforementioned country they fell by some 15 per cent to a level of US$0.594/kg.  Also in
response to question No. 35 of the Panel
125, Argentina explained that the investigating authorities took
all these data into account as indicated in Section V of the Annex to Record No. 781.
(b) Whether the 1994/1996 sectoral study was of relevance
4.50 Chile submitted two tables showing the apparent consumption of preserved peaches in
Argentina from 1994 to 1996 in tons and percentages, which it had calculated on the basis of a"Sectoral Study on Canned Peaches" of October 1998.
126  With reference to these two tables, Chile
notes that the average historical level of sales of Argentine preserved peaches in the domestic market
is approximately 73.3 per cent for the period 1994/1996;  in other words, the average apparent
consumption of imported preserved peaches for that period is 26.7 per cent.  Further, Chile points out
the contrasts with the apparent consumption of imported preserved peaches of 11 per cent for 1999,and 17 per cent for 2000, less than the average figure for 1994/1996, not to mention the figure for
1996 alone.
127
4.51 Argentina  submits that the above data128 are based on a CNCE sectoral study of apparent
consumption measured in cans of peaches weighing less than 1 kilogram which do not correspond to
the product under investigation in the present case, whereas the relevant paragraphs in the technicalreport use tons as a unit of measurement.
129  Thus, Argentina argues, the citation of that sectoral study
is inaccurate.  Argentina adds that this study has been available on the CNCE web page and therefore
available to the general public since before the initiation of the investigation.  In response to question
No. 11 of the Panel130, Argentina clarified that the technical report does not take account of the data
from the sectoral study because the product in the study does not correspond to the product at issue inthe safeguard investigation, the quantities in the study are expressed in different units of measurement
(cans, as opposed to tons), and refer to different periods of analysis, etc.
4.52 Chile replies
131 that, regardless of whether the apparent consumption of preserved peaches is
measured in units of 0.820 kg (cans of peaches) or in tons, the figures and results obtained in the
comparison process remain every bit as representative and real.  According to Chile, what counts is
that the structure of apparent consumption of preserved peaches recorded in the sectoral study for
1994/1996, measured in percentages, is fully representative, genuine and objective. Moreover, Chilesays, although the unit of measurement behind the information recorded in the technical report is
sometimes expressed in tons, those tons are calculated on the basis of a unit of canned peaches of
                                                     
124 Namely, " Does Argentina believe that the statis tics for 1997 and 1998 were representative of
imports or were they influenced by any  unusual factors?  If the latter, how did the competent authorities take
account of this in their determination? ".
125 Namely, " Argentina's answer to question 15 indicates unusual factors that influenced statistics for
imports and prices in 1997 and 1998.  How did the compet ent authorities take into acco unt these fact ors in their
determination of an increase in imports? ".
126 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.24 and Exhibit CHL-6.
127 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.25 and 4.26.
128 See paragraph 4.50 of the present report.
129 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 64.
130 Namely, " Was the study referred to by Chile in paragraphs 4.24-4.25 of its first written submission
submitted by an interested party to the CNCE, or otherwis e available to the investigation team in this case,
during the safeguard proceedings? ".
131 See paragraph 4.51 and footnote 130 of the present report.WT/DS238/R
Page 19
0.820 kg.132  Chile also indicates that the argument that the sectoral study did not refer to the same
product that was investigated in connection with the imposition of a safeguard measure is not true.
Chile claims that the Study comes from the file of the CNCE Investigation No. 28/95 and concerns
the imposition of countervailing duties on imports of canned peaches from the European Union and
therefore it refers to exactly the same product.  In fact, Chile adds, the annex to the technical reportitself includes that file in its statistical charts.
133 134
4.53 Argentina  insists that the sectoral study took as a reference the investigation conducted under
File CNCE No. 28/95 in which the product investigated was "peaches in syrup", while in the
safeguards investigation the product under analysis was "peaches preserved in water containing added
sweetening matter, including syrup, preser ved in any other form or in water".135  Hence, for
Argentina, the product analysed in the safeguard investigation clearly covered a broader universe than
the product considered in File No. 28/95.136
4.54 Also concerning apparent consumption, Argentina  considers that the upward trend is beyond
question and that the relative importance of imports follows a pattern similar to that of the
imports/production ratio.  According to Argentina, after imports had recovered in 1999 to the relative
share that they had enjoyed prior to the year of the world production crisis, there was a significant
growth in 2000 which went well beyond the recorded historical levels137.  Argentina claims that this
was the result of the unforeseen developments.138  Argentina contends that the presence of low-price
imports (due either to unfair competition during the period 1994/96 or to world market surpluses
during the most recent years) has logically led to a greater share of imports in apparent consumption,
which is significant.139
4.55 Moreover, Argentina  argues that the comparison of periods – such as 1994/96 with
1999/2000 – is clearly questionable, since they involve market and marketing structures that were
completely different and a change in supply that  was heavily influenced by the launching of the
restructuring programme in the domestic production sector.140  In response to question No. 21 of the
Panel141, Argentina clarifies that the transformations in the market include changes in distribution
channels with a concentration of demand and purchasing power, in the composition of importers andin consumer habits and related prices.  As regards the restructuring process, Argentina submits that
there were significant differences in the state of the industry following major technological
improvements, an increase in the level of integration of the production process involving considerable
investment, restructuring of manufacturing plants, and increased industrial concentration.
3. Determination of threat of serious injury.  Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and
Articles 2.1, 3.1, 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards
4.56 Chile  submits that it has shown that there was no increase in imports, either in absolute or
relative terms, and that there were no unforeseen developments either, so that it was impossible for
the Argentine preserved peaches industry to have been in a situation where serious injury was clearly
imminent.  Indeed, Chile adds, if the increased imports (either in absolute or relative terms) must be
                                                     
132 Chile refers to page 21 and the Annex to the technical report, tables 10 and 11, as examples.
133 Chile refers to the Annex to the technical report, charts 5.1 and 5.2.
134 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 34.
135 Argentina refers to MCN tariff codes 2008.70.10 – Peaches preserved in water containing added
sweetening matter, including syrup;  and 2008.70.90 – Other.
136 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraph 32.
137 Argentina refers to the technical report, Table 2, sheet 1439 and Table 15.2, sheet 1477.
138 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 63.
139 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 65.
140 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 66.
141 Namely, "… Could Argentina indicate which were the differences in the market structures and
marketing conditions between these two periods? ".WT/DS238/R
Page 20
the result of unforeseen developments, and if the threat of serious injury  must have as its genuine and
substantial cause an absolute or relative increase in imports, it is impossible, in fact and in law, for the
Argentine industry to have faced a threat of serious injury under Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994
and the Agreement on Safeguards.  According to Chile, the inconsistencies described above show per
se that Argentina's determination of threat of serious injury violates the covered WTO Agreements.142
4.57 Chile  notes that Articles 4.1(a) and (b) and Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards
impose procedural and substantive obligations.  On the one hand, Chile argues, the Member wishing
to apply a safeguard measure must evaluate all relevant factors of an objective and quantifiable nature
pertaining to the most recent past, but without isolating them from the data relating to trends spanning
the entire investigation period;  and on the other hand, the Member must demonstrate that there has
been a threat of serious injury, providing a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the factors
analysed support such a finding.143  As regards this second substantive obligation, Chile specifies that
it requires the Member to conduct a substantive evaluation of the "bearing" – or of the "influence",
"effect" or "impact" – of these relevant factors on the "situation of [the domestic] industry", i.e., to
provide a reasoned and adequate explanation of the way in which the relevant factors corroborate or
support their determination.144 145
4.58 Argentina  contests the above claims by Chile and submits that, what Chile fails to mention is
that Argentina, acting in conformity with Article 4 of Agreement on Safeguards and Article XIX:1(a)
of the GATT 1994, established the threat of injury and the corresponding increased imports by
conducting an evaluation which went beyond the mere recording of certain indicators, for example,
isolated comparisons with respect to the impact of imports during two different periods of time.
Argentina argues that, if criteria of this nature were sufficient to reach a conclusion, in a particularcase, as to whether or not there was a threat of injury, the very definition of the concept would be
deprived of any substance, since contextual evaluation in the broadest sense of the term would be
devoid of any useful content.
146  Argentina favours a broader interpretation which it understands to be
consistent with multilateral legislation and practice.  Argentina is of the view that the criteria for
determining threat of injury have much more to do with the patterns of variables within a context than
with the mere establishment of their values.  In ot her words, threat of injury must be seen more in
terms of probable flows than of comparative statistics, as in the case of Chile's analysis.147
(a) Whether the CNCE evaluated all of the relevant factors listed in Article 4.2(a) of the
Agreement on Safeguards having a bearing on the situation of the domestic industry
4.59 Chile  claims that, under Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards, the CNCE had to
evaluate and investigate all of the relevant factors having a bearing on the situation of the Argentine
preserved peaches industry, and at a minimum those explicitly mentioned in the said provision.148
However, Chile argues, there is no evidence of any investigation or evaluation of productivity,
capacity utilization or level of employment.149  The only clues are a few statistical tables annexed to
the technical report in which much of the content is concealed, and a mere mention of the
employment factor in the Annex to the Record.  In any case, Chile adds, the information relating to
                                                     
142 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.34.
143 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.31.  See also Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs
24 and 25.
144 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Reports, US – Lamb , paragraphs 103 and 104; and US – Wheat
Gluten , paragraph 71.
145 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 37.
146 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 46 and 47.
147 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraph 48.
148 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.60.
149 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.61 and rebuttal, paragraph 35(b).  Note that the
latter does not refer expressly to productivity.WT/DS238/R
Page 21
these factors, partially recorded in the technical report, shows that the situation of the domestic
industry by no means reflected a threat of injury.150
4.60 Argentina  denies Chile's claim that the investigating authority failed to evaluate, among the
injury factors, the "degree of utilization of production capacity" and "employment".  Argentina
submits that Chile has failed to provide a single argument capable of substantiating such a claim.  Infact, Argentina argues, the investigating authority did analyse the degree of utilization of production
capacity, and its analysis supports the determination of threat of serious injury.
151
4.61 In response to question No. 50 from the Panel152, Chile  acknowledges that the technical report
contains tables for capacity utilization and empl oyment but indicates that none of them expressly
refers to the "productivity" factor.  In Chile's view, Argentina describes this factor as " producto medio
físico del empleo ", the meaning of which is unclear to Chile. 153  It further argues that, unlike the other
statistical tables, there is no explanation whatsoever, in annex I to the technical report, of the data inTable No. 7 or of the data recorded as " producto medio físico del empleo ".  In any event, Chile adds,
recording data in statistical tables – as the competent authorities have done – is one thing, but a proper
and reasoned evaluation of the data or factors, in order to explain and demonstrate how such
information supports a determination, is a different matter altogether.
(i) Productivity
154
4.62 Argentina  submits that productivity is analysed in the Record and the technical report on the
basis of an approximation determined by average physical output per employee.  In this connection, it
claims, an examination of the coefficient obtai ned by measuring own-production against the number
of employees in the production sector (Table 7(e) of the technical report) reveals that in 2000, as an
unquestionable result of the fall in production, the indicator fell to 32 points following an increase thatreflected improved performance of the sector, ending up more than 10 per cent lower than in 1999.
Argentina is of the view that this decrease in the mentioned ratio has an impact on the unit cost of the
product, increasing the relative incidence of productive labour in the majority of the companies.
155
4.63 Chile  points out that in the event that Argentina explains ex post facto that the expression
"producto medio físico del empleo" refers to the "productivity" factor, the fall in productivity is notobvious for the following reasons:  (a) Not all the partial data are recorded because of their
confidential nature;  (b) there is no record of the totals for the survey list for 1996;  (c) the total for the
survey list for 1999, including imports from the ma in origin and competitor, i.e. Greece (already
clearly on its way to recovery), exceeds the total for 1998, when such imports had practically stopped
because of unexpected adverse climatic factors;  (d) the totals for 2000 and 1999, including the
recovering Greek imports, exceed the totals for 1998 and 1997 when the imports had practically
ceased;  and (e) the statistical table also includes production subcontracted to plants belonging to third
                                                     
150 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.62.
151 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 24 and 25.
152 Namely, " Please refer to paragraph 4.62 of Chile's first  written submission.  Does Chile agree that
there are statistical tables in the technical report for each of the three factors of productivity, capacityutilization and employment? ".
153 In response to question No. 49 of the Panel (" Regarding productivity, please clarify the meaning of
"producto medio fisico del empleo" (which we have translated as "labour productivity" ) Argentina indicates that
"producto medio fisico del empleo"  is the "own production divided by the number of employees in the preserved
peaches production sector .
154 See footnote 149 to the present report.
155 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 91.WT/DS238/R
Page 22
parties, but their total figures do not distinguish the incidence of such production from that of the
plants' own production. 156
(ii) Capacity utilization
4.64 Argentina  observes that production capacity, as stated in Record No. 781, was "determined
on the basis of values affecting the product in qu estion exclusively …".  Argentina explains that,
although at the national level, there was information pointing to constant production capacity during
the period under analysis, at the level of the compan ies that supplied information in response to the
CNCE questionnaires, and that were verified, pr oduction capacity grew owing to the closure or
absorption of firms (technical report, page 42), with values corresponding to the methodology set
forth in the questionnaires for producers.157  It further explains that, for the companies as a whole
(Table 6 of the technical report), utilization of installed capacity grew until 1999 from 71 per cent to
88 per cent, and then declined in 2000 to 73 per cent, partly as a result of the increase in installedcapacity and partly, indeed above all, owing to the fall in production.
158  Argentina submits that, if
there had been no increase in installed capacity in 2000, considering the actual output level, the
utilization of 51,000 tons of 1999 capacity w ould have corresponded, in 2000, to a utilization of
76 per cent.  This implies that only 3 per cent of the 15 per cent drop in utilization of installed
capacity in 2000 is attributable to the increase in installed capacity, and the rest is the result of a fall inproduction due to the impact of imports, since there were no primary factors that could have
contributed to that fall.
159
4.65 Chile  replies that Argentina fails to provide any explanation of why or how it came to the
conclusion that this factor supported the determination of threat of serious injury.  Chile claims that
Argentina merely states that the degree of utilizat ion of production capacity is analysed in the Record
and the technical report and, unlike the CNCE direct ors, it goes on to provide explanations of the
figures partially recorded in the annex to the technical report.160  However, Chile argues, nowhere
does it emerge that this factor was examined.161  Furthermore, Chile submits, the information recorded
in the technical report does not support the CNCE 's determination of "threat of serious injury".
According to that information, Chile argues, the degree of utilization of preserved peaches productioncapacity for the entire domestic industry experienced an increase as from 1997, reaching 83 per cent
in 1999 and remaining at that level in 2000.
 162
(iii) Employment
4.66 Argentina  submits that, as indicated in section 2 of the Annex to Record No. 781 (Situation
of the Domestic Industry), the level of employment fell, particularly towards the end of the period.
Indeed, Argentina argues, as shown in Table 7a of the technical report, the number of employees
employed in production for the companies taken as a whole decreased by 4 per cent in 2000.163  In
Argentina's view, the same pattern can be observed in the total production wage bill (Table 8 of the
technical report), while the average salary per employee in the production sector declined
                                                     
156 See Chile’s response to question No. 51 of the Panel (" The opinion of the directors who voted in
favour of the imposition of the safeguard measure refers to falls in "el producto medio físico del empleo".   In
view of this, please clarify Chile's claim that there is no reference to productivity at all in Record No. 781 or itsAnnex. ")
157 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 92.
158 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 93.
159 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 94.
160 Chile refers to paragraphs 92 to 94 in Argentina's first written submission, Annex to the technical
report, Table No. 6.
161 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 27.
162 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 28.
163 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 104.WT/DS238/R
Page 23
continuously, at a varying rate, during each of the years.164  According to Argentina, the correlative
effort to ensure adequate cost and productivity levels helps to explain why the correlation between
these factors is not more explicit.  However, the analysis that was conducted of the variations relating
to the other products produced by the companies shows different patterns, indicating that the decrease
in the production of peaches had a real impact on this factor.165
4.67 Chile  stresses that the only instance in the file of the investigation in which this factor was
examined is a very minor one.  In Chile's view, th e CNCE directors that voted in favour of imposing
the measure merely pointed out that the "analysis of the other parameters shows a fall in the level of
employment and labour productivity …  The trends in these factors directly reflect the changes in
sales and production."166  Chile further argues that the technical report167 does not in fact provide
employment figures for each company, but merely provides overall data for this factor.  As can be
seen, Chile adds, the CNCE, rather than evaluating and verifying this information, merely repeatswhat is stated in the technical report.  Chile further indicates that, similarly, the technical report
indicates that the level of employment in the preserved peaches production sector hardly declined at
all in 2000, and that the level in other production sectors decreased by no more than 7 per cent on
average during that year.
168  169
(b) Whether the CNCE provided a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the evidence
gathered on the evaluated relevant listed injury factors justifies a finding of "threat of serious
injury"
4.68 Chile  claims that the injury factors that the CNCE did consider:  (i) do not indicate the
existence of a threat of serious injury;  (ii) were not evaluated in a reasoned and adequate manner by
the directors because there is no explanation of the way in which these factors support theirdetermination;  (iii) were not examined in the context of data spanning the entire investigation period;
and (iv) for the most part, are supported by incomplete information treated as confidential which the
CNCE received from the companies on the survey list, information for which there is no record of
verification and which it was in fact impossible for Chile to verify.
170
4.69 Argentina  denies Chile's claims that the investigating authority acted incorrectly.  In
Argentina's view, the investigating authority, far from acting in any way that would justify Chile's
claim, carried out a proper analysis of the information.171
4.70 Argentina  contends that the CNCE did provide a reasoned and adequate explanation of how
the evidence gathered on the evaluated relevant listed injury factors justified a finding of threat of
serious injury.  Argentina explains that the evolution of the relevant import-related variables is closely
linked to the evolution of the international market.  Argentina argues that, in the 1998/1999 and
1999/2000 seasons, world production grew by 16 per cent172, a highly significant growth rate if it is
borne in mind that practically throughout the 1990s , world production of preserved peaches remained
fairly stable in the vicinity of 1 million tons per year.173  Argentina argues that what is significant in
the analysis of international market trends is the av ailability of exportable surpluses, and this analysis
reveals Greece's structural exporter status, which is clearly reflected in the relationship between
                                                     
164 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 105.
165 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 106.
166 Chile refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, page 8.
167 Chile refers to the Annex to the technical report, Table No. 7.
168 Chile refers to the Annex to the technical report, Table No. 7.
169 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs 29 to 31.
170 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 35(d).
171 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 35.
172 Argentina refers to the technical report, page 73, sheet 1407.
173 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 69.WT/DS238/R
Page 24
production, exports and availability of stocks over the past decade.174 175  Exports represented 97.2 per
cent of production for the period 1990/2000 with a value exceeding 100 per cent for certain years,
proving that there were plenty of readily available stocks that could easily be poured on to the
international market.176  In the case of Greece, these values can be explained by natural conditions for
the production of peaches.177  Greek peaches also share enormous price flexibility which is reflected
in the great diversity of f.o.b. price quotations for Greek exports, depending on their destination.178 179
In Argentina's view, the logical corollary to this can be found in the behaviour of the domestic market
for peaches during the 1999/2000 season when the fall in the volume of production was coupled with
a significant decrease in the unit value of the product and, more importantly, in the per unit mark-up,
since although costs decreased during the reference period, prices were subjected to an even greater
downward pressure.  This can be seen from the fact that the unit price/cost ratio fell sharply for all of
the companies surveyed in the 1999/2000 season180, confirming the imminence of a threat of serious
injury within the meaning of Article 4.1(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards.181  In response to
question No. 16 of the Panel182, Argentina confirmed that the above information can be found in the
technical report (pages 54/59, 73/74, 81/82 and annex I – Methodological Notes and Statistical
Tables).  The competent authority considered that this information showed that there was a threat of
serious injury.183
4.71 Argentina  further argues that the implementing authority did not analyse the relevant
indicators out of context, but rather in the light of the changes that were taking place on the
international market and the greater or lesser degree to which the Argentine economy was exposed to
such developments.184  For example, Argentina adds, the CNCE did not disregard the fact that 1998
was an atypical year in terms of production in the Northern Hemisphere owing to drought, and that, asa result, production levels in the following year were bound to be higher.  Nor was the CNCE
unaware of the fact that imports, measured in absolute or relative terms, and analysed in the context of
the entire decade of the 90s, reached their highest volumes in 1993.
185
4.72 Chile does not agree with the above comments made by Argentina.  In Chile's view, the non-
confidential information recorded in the technical report does not justify these comments:  they are
based on information that is not recorded in the file of the investigation and they are based on data
from the most recent past that was not analysed in the context of trends spanning the entire
investigation period.  Moreover, Chile draws the attention of the Panel to the fact that Argentina has
offered a number of arguments and lines of reasoning which cannot be found in the comments and
determinations of the CNCE directors that voted in  favour of imposing the challenged measure, hence
representing ex post facto  clarifications.186
4.73 In Chile 's view, any attempt by a Member to cure investigative or procedural deficiencies on
the part of the competent authorities ex post facto  by presenting possible explanations and reasons for
                                                     
174 Argentina refers to the technical report, page 59, Table No. 7, sheet 1393.
175 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 72.
176 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 73.
177 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 76.
178 Argentina refers to the technical report, page 82, sheet 1416.
179 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 77.
180 Argentina refers to the technical report, Tables 10.1, 10.2, 10.3, 10.4 and 10.5, sheets 1452/1456.
181 See Argentina's response to question No. 16.
182 Namely, " Was the information about the world market set out in Argentina's first written submission
in paragraphs 68-78 considered by the competent authorities?  If so, did it show that there was merely a threatof increased imports, or a threat of serious injury? Where does it appear in the report of the competent
authorities? ".
183 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 79.
184 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 41 to 43.
185 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 44 and 45.
186 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 33.WT/DS238/R
Page 25
their determinations that were not provided by the authorities themselves is contrary to the Agreement
on Safeguards.  The time and place for providing explanations and reasons for a determination are
prior to the imposition of the measure, in the file of the investigation, and this must be done by the
competent authorities.  In the specific case of Arge ntina, Chile adds, the task of providing a reasoned
and adequate evaluation falls to the CNCE directors. 187
(i) Rate and amount of the increase in imports of the product at issue in absolute and relative
terms.  Share of domestic market  taken by increased imports.
4.74 As regards the analysis of the imports in absolute terms, Chile  is of the view that the CNCE
directors that voted in favour of the measure, minimize the importance of the fact that the growth in
imports during 1999 and 2000, seen in the context of the entire investigation period (1996/2000),
reflects a recovery of historical levels that were severely disrupted in 1997 and 1998 rather than an
increase in imports.188  Chile claims that Argentina does not provide any argument to justify the
CNCE's decision to consider data from the most recent past only, without analysing that data in the
context of trends spanning the entire investigation period.189  According to Chile, these facts were set
forth in the technical report and its annex.  Chile maintains that, if total imports for 1999 and 2000 had
been analysed in relation to the entire investigation period, the conclusion would have been that
imports actually decreased by approximately 75 per cent in 1998, 51 per cent in 1999 and 16 per centin 2000 with respect to the average for 1996.  Thus, in Chile’s view, not even in the most recent past
(1999 and 2000) did imports reach the historical averages that were interrupted in 1997.  Chile
concludes that it is impossible to maintain that ther e was threat of serious injury when imports in 1999
and 2000 were considerably lower than the historical average represented by 1996, and when the
growth recorded towards the end of the period was a predictable trend which allowed the domesticindustry to adjust beforehand to what was the normal behaviour of imports.
190
4.75 As regards the analysis of the imports in relative terms, Chile  submits that when the CNCE
analyses the rate and amount of the alleged relative increase in imports (as with the absolute increase),
it minimizes the importance of the fact that the growth in apparent consumption of imports in 1999
and 2000, seen in the context of the entire investigation period (1996/2000), reflects a recovery andnot an increase.
191  According to Chile, the disruption in imports also explains why the share of sales
of the domestic product in apparent consumption reached a maximum of 93 per cent during the period
of investigation.  Consequently, Chile argues, it is not possible to maintain that there was threat of
serious injury when apparent consumption of imports in 1999 and 2000 was significantly lower than
the historical average represented by 1996.  Chile is of the view that an industry which should
historically share at least 25 per cent of appare nt consumption cannot claim threat of serious injury
when subsequently, during a period of recovery of imports, it shares only 17 per cent of apparentconsumption.
192
4.76 Argentina  considers that it has sufficiently dealt with Chile’s claims regarding the rate and
amount of imports when dealing with the increased imports.193  In this regard, it insists that it has
already pointed out that the most relevant data for the purposes of a determination is the data from the
most recent past and that this is precisely what the investigating authority did in the case at issue.194  It
further argues that the leading world producer and exporter of peaches, Greece, recorded an increase
in its exports to Argentina of 207 per cent in 1998, 309 per cent in 1999 and 110 per cent in 2000.
                                                     
187 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 36.
188 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.35.
189 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 34(a).
190 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.36.
191 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.37.
192 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.38.
193 Argentina refers to paragraphs 52 to 67 of its first written submission.  See Section IV.B.2 of the
present report.
194 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 29 and 30.WT/DS238/R
Page 26
Argentina indicates that this rate and amount of increase in imports was within the context described
in Section IV.B.2 of overproduction and accumulation of stocks that could be poured onto the
international market.  To take this last factor alone, Argentina points out that in 1999 and 2000,
available stocks in Greece were 152.1 per cent and 173.1 per cent higher, respectively, than the
average recorded for the entire 1990s.  Measured as a percentage of Argentine production, thesestocks represented 183 per cent in 1999 and 225 per cent in 2000.
195  Argentina maintains that the
increase in imports was less in terms of value and that this is due to the sharp fall in world prices, in
particular in Greece, where in 2000, an increase in the volume of imports of 110 per cent
corresponded to an increase in the value of imports of 76 per cent.196
4.77 Argentina  submits that the Argentine domestic market has developed over the last years
thanks to various factors, such as a general gr owth in demand and changes in consumption patterns
for a series of products.  In this connection, Argentina explains, the massive presence in the domesticArgentine market of relatively low-priced products has caused part of the market to be taken by those
products.
197  As far as preserved peaches are concerned, Argentina argues, apparent consumption
followed an upward trend, disturbed only in 1998 by  adverse climatic conditions in the Northern
Hemisphere and a domestic supply which, althoug h the adjustment process was under way, proved
insufficient.198  Argentina contends that the prices of imported peaches on the market (even after the
Greek price had been corrected by the countervailing duty) declined for the most part, particularly
from the main countries of origin, recording levels up to 20 per cent below the domestic price.199  In
this context, Argentina submits, the share of imports in the domestic market measured through
apparent consumption (see Exhibit ARG-VI) grew si gnificantly in 2000 to the detriment of sales of
the domestic product, affecting prices, production and utilization of installed capacity.200
(ii) Changes in the level of sales, in volume and value
4.78 Chile  notes that, based on the information supplied by the portion of the domestic industry
analysed by the CNCE, the volume of sales of preserved peaches totalled 24,386 tons in 1997,
26,422 tons in 1998, 37,264 tons in 1999 and 37,113 tons in 2000.  Chile further notes that this
represents a variation, according to the CNCE, of 8 per cent, 41 per cent, and –minus 0.4 per centrespectively.  In terms of price (Argentine pesos), the CNCE's estimated variation is 5 per cent, 28 per
cent and minus 14 per cent respectively.
201  Chile points out that in the file of the investigation, with
the exception of the company ARCOR, the monthly sales data for that portion of the industry, in
volume and in pesos, is not recorded for each company individually.  Chile explains that the CNCE
treats it as confidential information and that the sa les data in pesos does not even include the totals for
the survey list.  Consequently, Chile submits that it has no way of verifying the estimated total annual
sales in tons, and still less, the estimated sales in pesos.202
4.79 Chile  notes that in evaluating this factor, the CNCE states that domestic market sales of the
companies analysed taken as a whole decreased, in value, by 14 per cent in 2000 as compared to the
previous year, and that domestic sales calculated for the purposes of the estimate of apparent
consumption declined in 2000.  It adds that this loss took place in a context of growth in apparent
consumption starting in 1999.  In Chile's view, this evaluation is clearly insufficient.203  Chile submits
that the CNCE gives no reason why its estimated decline in the value of sales towards the end of the
investigation period (14 per cent) should reflect a clearly imminent threat of serious injury in the near
                                                     
195 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 81 and 82.
196 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 83.
197 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 84.
198 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 85.
199 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 86.
200 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 87.
201 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.39.
202 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.40.
203 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.41.WT/DS238/R
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future.  Moreover, Chile claims that Argentina fails to explain why it does not give any consideration
to its estimate of sales in volume, which shows practically no decrease in 2000.204  Nor does it explain
how this relationship between its estimate of the value of sales for 2000 and its estimate of apparent
consumption for 1999 and 2000 justifies its determination of threat of serious injury.205
4.80 Chile  notes that apparent consumption shows that domestic industry sales declined by only
1 per cent in 2000 as compared to 1999, and that their share in the market with respect to imports
merely decreased from 89.41 per cent to 83.44 per cent in 2000.  Thus, according to Chile, it is
difficult to speak of "a fall in the share of sales" in 2000, when this "fall" represents a variation of
minus 5 per cent and when sales decreased by 1 per cent.206  Moreover, Chile argues, the CNCE
confines itself to the trends for the most recent period without analysing the share of sales in apparent
consumption for the entire investigation period.  In  Chile's view, the CNCE should not have excluded
the trends for 1996, since they are important to the behaviour of imports and apparent consumption.The greatest increase in sales in value and pesos and the greatest share of the domestic industry in
apparent consumption were recorded in 1998, with the situation beginning to recover in 1999.
207
4.81 Argentina  argues that domestic market sales by Argentine companies which, after
consecutive increases in 1998 and 1999 had decreased by only 0.4 per cent in tons, had in fact
decreased by 14 per cent in terms of value.  Moreover, Argentina adds, this decrease is reflected in thestatistics of each one of the companies (Record No. 781, Annex, section 2, page 7 – Situation of the
domestic industry – and Table 2.2 of the technical report).
208  In Argentina's view, this decrease –
more than proportional in value – reflects the fall in the price of the domestic product, provoked by
the presence in the market of a considerable and growing volume of imports at decreasing prices.
Argentina submits that the fall in price of the domestic product, adversely affected by imports, limitedthe losses in volume of sales to a minimum, but at the cost of lost profitability and a general negative
impact on the industry.
209
4.82 In reference to the above,  Chile  argues that Argentina failed to provide any justification,
under the Agreement on Safeguards for: (i) the fact that Chile had no way of verifying the estimated
total annual and monthly sales, in volume and value,  of the companies on the survey list, because for
reasons of confidentiality, practically none of the supporting information was included in the CNCE
Report210; (ii) the fact that the CNCE determined that there was a threat of serious injury in
circumstances in which sales from the domestic industry declined by only 1 per cent in 2000, and
their share in apparent consumption decreased by less than 6 per cent during the same  year211; and
(iii) the fact that the CNCE, without any explanat ion, disregarded the figures provided by CAFIM for
sales in tons by the Argentine industry in 2000.  Chile argues that pursuant to CAFIM's figures, these
sales increased by 13 per cent in 2000 as compared to 1999.212 213
4.83 Argentina  replies that the classification of some of the information as confidential did not
mean that the investigating authority could not dr aw proper conclusions from that information.  In
Argentina's view, the issue of the decline in sales has been duly explained.  It argues that it reflects the
fact that the fall in the price of the domestic product, adversely affected by imports, limited the losses
in volume of sales to a minimum, at the cost of lost profitability and a general negative impact on the
                                                     
204 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.42.
205 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.43.
206 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.44.
207 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.47.
208 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 88.
209 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 89.
210 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.40.
211 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.44.
212 Chile refers to the Annex to the technical report, Tables 19.1 and 19.2.
213 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 34(b).WT/DS238/R
Page 28
industry.  Argentina further argues that the investig ating authority did not act arbitrarily in analysing
the sales figures, but examined all of the information at its disposal.214
(iii) Production
4.84 In its first written submission, Chile  argues that the technical report contains no analysis of
this factor and that it merely provides, in an annex, a statistical table showing data on domesticproduction.
215  Chile explains that, for the CNCE, th e information supplied by CAFIM shows a
decrease of some 4.5 per cent in 1998, followed by stability in 1999 and 2000 at about 65,000 tons.
However, the CNCE adds that the companies on th e survey list, while they experienced growth in
1998 and 1999, in 2000 their production as a whole fell by 14 per cent.216  Chile contends that the
CNCE carried out another analysis, disregarding the data provided by CAFIM because it did not
reflect trends that fitted in with its determinatio n of threat of serious injury.  According to Chile,
without any kind of explanation to justify or support  its new finding, the CNCE concluded that there
was a decline in domestic production in 2000 which was consistent with the decline recorded in the
companies analysed.  It estimated the decrease at 12 per cent compared to 1999, with domestic
production totalling 57,847 tons.217  Chile submits that the CNCE does not consider 1996 and it
confines itself to making estimates and using information from the technical report without providing
a reasoned and adequate explanation of how that information supports its conclusions.218  In any case,
Chile argues, the estimate made by CAFIM, which is representative of the domestic industry, does not
justify the finding of "threat of serious injury", nor indeed does the 12 per cent decrease estimated by
the CNCE, since it takes place in the context of the recovery of imports.  Furthermore, Chile contends,
these CNCE estimates do not indicate any rela tionship between this recovery and the lower
productivity.  According to Chile, domestic production in 1998, when imports to Argentina reachedtheir low point, was 4 per cent lower than in 1997 and 6.5 per cent lower than in 2000.
219
4.85 Argentina contests the above statement by Chile and submits that the indicators analysed and
verified for the mentioned subgroup of compan ies show that production grew in 1998 and 1999
(20 per cent and 39 per cent respectively) and declined in 2000 (14 per cent).  According to
Argentina, it should be borne in mind that the ad justment process launched by the sector led to an
increase in production which was reversed by massive imports in such conditions as to negatively
influence that variable.220 221
4.86 Chile  claims that Argentina's above explanation fails to provide any justification under the
Agreement on Safeguards for the fact that the CNCE, without providing any explanation of its
determination, decided to disregard the domestic production figures provided by CAFIM, which show
no decrease for 1999 and 2000;  that on the contrary, it chose to adjust its estimate on the basis of the
companies in the survey list, which did suffer a decline in 2000.222  223
                                                     
214 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 32 to 34.
215 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.49.
216 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.50.
217 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.51.
218 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.53.
219 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.54.
220 Argentina refers to Annex to Record No. 781, section 2, page 7 - Situation of the domestic industry -
and Table 1 of the technical report.
221 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 90.
222 Chile refers to Annex to Record No.781, page 7.
223 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 34(c).WT/DS238/R
Page 29
(iv) Profits and losses
4.87 Chile  submits that it is impossible to verify each and every one of the items of information
provided by the Argentine producers.  In Chile’s view, the CNCE merely repeats what was stated by
the producers on the basis of their general accounting statements and their specific sales accounts for
the product under investigation.  Chile claims that there is no knowledge of the methodologies usedby producers in arriving at such conclusions, and the file of the investigation does not state that the
CNCE investigated the data, let alone verified it to see whether it corresponded to the reality.
224
According to Chile, what the file does reveal is that the Argentine industry made heavy investments in
connection with a reconversion of the primary and secondary sectors, that the total average cost of
peaches as a raw material decreased throughout the investigation period, and that it is common for
part of that industry to entrust its production of preserved peaches to processing plants belonging to
third parties.  Chile submits that the CNCE fails to evaluate any of these circumstances whichinfluence production costs and profits.
225
4.88 Chile  observes that the CNCE itself acknowledges that the accounting statements of the
companies are limited from the analytical point of  view in that these are multi-product companies.
This is why, in Chile's view, it decided to ob tain from the companies in question the accounts
specifically relating to preserved peaches.  However,  Chile adds, it remains silent as to the impact of
the profitability of sales of that product for each multi-product enterprise in terms of billing.226  Chile
argues that, according to the actual information provided by the companies on the survey list, sales of
preserved peaches represented between 1 per cent and 40 per cent; but it is impossible to verify the
impact of these billings on their total sales, si nce the CNCE reveals this information for ARCOR
only.227  Moreover, Chile submits, all of the companies on the survey list indicate a high debt ratio
which has persisted since 1997.  Chile claims that the CNCE has failed to investigate how this
historical indebtedness might have been affecting the domestic industry's profitability.228
4.89 Argentina  submits that, in analysing the evolution of the profitability and net worth of the
enterprises in relation to the impact of imports on the domestic industry, it should be borne in mind
that since these are multi-product enterprises, for an analysis to be more specific and directly relevant,
as well as objective, it must be conducted on the basis of the accounts containing the results for the
product in question.229  In Argentina's view, the fact that the CNCE was dealing with a multi-product
industry and Chile’s claim that there are no disaggregated profitability indicators for each product do
not preclude the possibility of the CNCE having reach ed consistent conclusions on threat of injury to
the preserved peaches industry.230  Argentina notes that there are disaggregated accounts for the
production of peaches in terms of cost, price, employment and corresponding wages, as well as the
evolution of sales (in volume and value) and the per unit mark up for the product measured as the unitprice/cost ratio.
231  Argentina is of the view that circumstances dictated that the analysis of specific
accounts for a major portion (more than 60 per cent) of the domestic industry was the most
appropriate and relevant approach.232
4.90 Looking at the analysis of productivity of the product based on specific accounts, Argentina
submits, the 11 per cent fall in the marginal contribution on sales after covering the variable costs, and
                                                     
224 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.55.
225 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.56.
226 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.57.
227 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.57.
228 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.58.
229 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 95.
230 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 96.
231 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 97.
232 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 98.WT/DS238/R
Page 30
a sales/breakeven point ratio233, which fell from 1.25 in 1999 to 0.67 in 2000, i.e. 33 per cent below
the 1/1 limit, reveals a negative profitability at the end of the period, corresponding to the sharp
growth in imports at decreasing prices and the consequent impact on domestic prices.234  At the same
time, the price/cost ratio at the end of the period was close to or less than one, depending on the
company, with considerable decreases recorded in 2000.  Argentina argues that these results which, in
accordance with the methodology used, corresponded exclusively to the product under analysis, must
be seen in the context of multi-product enterprises in which the sale of preserved peaches does not
exceed 40 per cent of total billing and whose balance pages, as indicated in the technical report, are
affected by company transfers and influenced by the operating results for other products as well as
non-operating and non-recurring results.235
4.91 Argentina  contends that, during the most recent period, when imports grew to unforeseen
levels, most of the companies on the survey list representing the sector were experiencing decline:  a14 per cent fall in production, a 14 per cent decrease in the value of sales, and a 10 per cent fall in
average physical output per employee (as an approximation of productivity), owing mainly to the
14 per cent decrease in production, which was higher than the decrease in employment.  Thus,
Argentina argues, the production capacity increased (following the restructuring mentioned earlier on)
while capacity utilization decreased in 2000.  In Argentina's view, this negative evolution of thedegree of utilization of capacity was not attributable to the growth in capacity, but to the fall in
production.
236
4.92 Argentina further argues that, in addition to its above arguments regarding the special cost-
benefit accounts for peaches, the analysis of employment indicators (average wage and total wage
bill) reconfirms the relativity of the consolidated balance pages, given the multi-product industrystatus.  According to Argentina, this can be s een in the negative ratio of the above-mentioned
indicators and the evolution of wage indicators for the rest of the production of the companies on the
survey list.  These indicators are positive for 1999 and 2000, a fact that, in Argentina's view, could
only reflect a difference in profitability vis-à-vis  the production of peaches.
237  Argentina concludes
that it is obvious that the positive values (alleged by Chile) in the consolidated balance pages can onlybe explained by the results for the other products, and not by the billing for peaches, whose prices
were seriously affected by the downwards pressure exerted by imports.
238
4.93 Chile  submits that Argentina fails to provide any argument to justify, in the light of the
Agreement on Safeguards: (i) the fact that the CNCE does not explain or demonstrate the true
incidence of billing for sales of preserved peaches by companies of the survey list on total sales or the
profitability indices of these multi-product companies; and (ii) the fact that the CNCE provides no
explanation of the methodologies used by the companies in presenting this information and of how itis possible to verify this information when the bulk of it is treated as confidential.
239 240 Chile further
responds to Argentina241 that the whole point of a reasoned and adequate explanation supported by
                                                     
233 Argentina refers to the technical report, Statistical Annex, specific accounts for preserved peaches,
sheet 1475.
234 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 99.
235 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 100.
236 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 101.
237 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 102.
238 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 103.
239 Chile refers to the Annex to the technical report, Tables 12, 13 and 14;  Annex to Record No. 781,
page 8;  Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.57 and 4.58.
240 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 34(d).
241 Chile refers to paragraph 103 of Argentina's first written submission where Argentina states that it is
obvious that the positive values (alleged by Chile) in the consolidated balance sheets can only be explained bythe results for the other products.  See paragraph 4.92 of the present report.WT/DS238/R
Page 31
sufficient evidence is to avoid this kind of assumption or conjecture.  Objectively, it says, the CNCE's
determinations should be evident and well-founded for all Members, and not only for Argentina.242
(v) Other considerations
4.94 Argentina  contends that Chile undervalues certain variables which, in Argentina's view, are
essential when it comes to evaluating threat of injury, namely:
(a) Chile does not attach enough importance to the fact that the growth rate in imports
was positive from 1998 onwards, and that imports grew at a faster rate than in
1996243;
(b) Nor does Chile attach enough importance to the fact that 1998/2000 was a period of
recession in Argentina which, until 1997, had experienced sustained growth, so that
low-priced imports, in the context of substitution of consumption to which Argentina
has already referred, had considerably more potential for injury due to the downwardpressure they exerted;
(c) Chile does not attach enough importance to the incontrovertible fact that the volume
of stocks available in Greece to be poured on to the international market during the
1999/2000 period represented 1.83 and 2.25 times Argentina's production for those
years respectively.  In 2000, Argentine production fell by 12 per cent
244;
(d) Chile does not give due consideration to the fact that that stock could easily have
been poured on to the Argentine market for macroeconomic reasons (1 to 1 parity as a
result of the currency board) and the fact that it is a counter-seasonal market with
growing apparent consumption.  Argentina comments that the seasonality component
was highlighted by the investigating authority on page 9 of the Annex toRecord No. 781, and is also reflected in Table 15.2 of the technical report
245;
(e) Chile does not correctly analyse the historical volumes in Greece which, with its
enormous production capacity and its high export coefficient, is unquestionably the
country with the greatest potential to pour excedent production on to the world
market, and focuses exclusively on the unfair competition component, which wasduly remedied by applying countervailing duties.  The investigating authority
specifically refers to this circumstance on page 10 of the Annex to Record No. 781;
(f) Chile underestimates the high potential for the said production volumes to be poured
on to a market like the Argentine market.  In addition to Greece, the European market
has other major suppliers (Spain, Italy and France), and the other large consumer
market in the Northern Hemisphere, the United States, has historically been almost
entirely self-sufficient;
(g) Chile overlooks the fact that during the preceding years, the Argentine industry had
been pursuing a significant investment and productive expansion plan, so that the
downward pressure exerted by imports on prices, on top of the considerations set
forth in subparagraph (b) above, aggravated the injury to the domestic industry that
much more.
                                                     
242 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 35.
243 Argentina refers to Exhibit ARG-XVII.
244 Argentina refers to the technical report, page 59 and Table 1.
245 Argentina refers to Exhibit ARG-XVIII.WT/DS238/R
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4.95 Argentina  maintains that, taking the period 1995/1996, one could quite clearly see that the
annual growth rate of imports decreased up until 1998.  On the other hand, Argentina submits, during
the period 1998/2000, the annual growth rate of imports rose steadily, reaching figures which, if we
look at the entire decade, were only exceeded in 1993.  Similarly, there was an upward trend in both
apparent consumption and growth in international stocks in 1998/2000.  Argentina stresses that thefigure (in thousands of tons) for average annual stocks in Greece, the leading world exporter and
producer was 47.6, while for 1995/1996, it was 43.25.  Ar gentina explains that taking the mentioned
average for the 1990s (47.6), available stocks in Greece for 1999 exceeded that figure by 152 per cent,
and in 2000 by 173 per cent.
246 247
(c) Whether the CNCE considered all relevant injury factors not listed in Article 4.2(a) of the
Agreement on Safeguards.  Industry readjustment
4.96 According to Chile, the producers that took part in the investigation showed that domestic
production had expanded considerably over the past decade following heavy investments and business
strategies involving the plantation of new, highly efficient varieties of peaches for preserves with
good market prospects, vertical integration of pr oduction between the primary and secondary sectors,
international scientific and technical counselling, protection against climatic risks and industrial
concentration in plants offering economies of scale.   This extensive readjustment led to a significant
increase, inter alia , in productivity, production, sales and degree of utilization of production capacity.
Chile indicates that all of this took place in the framework of trade liberalization, an indication of the
confidence of the domestic industry in its ability to compete on export markets in the long term.  Chile
is of the view that, under these conditions, it is impossible that the CNCE should have found that this
industry was facing a threat of serious injury.248
4.97 Argentina responds that the CNCE sent questionnaires to 100 per cent of the companies
registered as producers in CAFIM, and received replies from a large percentage of the domestic
industry:  six companies, of which five, duly veri fied, represented 68 per cent of production in 1999.
These companies as a whole were referred to throughout the Record and the technical report as the
"survey list" or the "companies surveyed", without distinction.249  Argentina maintains that the
information supplied, together with the verifications, revealed that the sector was being restructured
on the basis of new primary "productive units" which had led to a growth of 21 per cent in the
production of preserved peaches up to 1999.  This trend was reversed in 2000 under the pressure of
imports in conditions which produced a significant decline in domestic production, making the
industry more sensitive and marking out a clear and foreseeable path towards imminent injury.250
4.98 In response to question No. 17 of the Panel251, Chile indicates that the legal basis of its claim
regarding industry readjustment is the obligation imposed by Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on
Safeguards according to which the competent author ities must not only evaluate, at a minimum, the
factors indicated therein, but must also evaluate any other factor that is relevant or pertinent to the
situation of the domestic industry concerned, with a view to determining whether that industry is
facing serious injury or a threat thereof.  In response to question No. 42 of the Panel252, Chile clarified
that, in its view, an industry readjustment process can perfectly be measured and quantified on the
                                                     
246 Argentina refers to Exhibits ARG-IX and ARG-XVII.
247 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraph 49.
248 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.64.
249 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 79.
250 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 80.
251 Namely, " What exactly is the legal basis of Chile's claim regarding industry readjustment in
paragraphs 4.63-4.64 of its first written submission? ".
252 Namely, " Chile's answer to question 17 indicates that it claims that industry readjustment was
another factor relevant or pertinent to the situation of the domestic industry.  Could such a process beconsidered "of an objective and quantifiable nature" in the sense of Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement onSafeguards?  Why, or why not? ".WT/DS238/R
Page 33
basis of objective data on indicators of such a process, considered as an additional factor;  these
include production, investment, technological i nnovation, exportable surpluses, and so forth.
4.99 Also in response to question No. 42 of the Panel, Argentina  indicates that it considers that
although the industry readjustment may have the characteristics of an objective and possibly
quantifiable fact, it is not one within the meaning of Article 4.2(a) which, moreover, does not list itamong the objective and quantifiable facts for the purposes of the Article 4 determination.
(d) Whether the CNCE based its finding of "threat of serious injury" merely on conjecture or
remote possibility and failed to demonstrate adequately that it was clearly imminent
4.100  Chile  claims that the CNCE based its finding of "threat of serious injury" merely on
conjecture or remote possibility and not on facts, and that it failed to demonstrate adequately that in
the year 2000 there was a high probability or imminence that such injury would occur in the near
future.  The CNCE maintains that the factors it considered showed the high degree of sensitivity ofthe domestic industry to the change taking place in the market as a result of imports and that the
behaviour of those imports towards the end of 2000, in terms of price and volume, had the capacity to
cause serious injury.  On that basis, it determined that there was a threat of serious injury, stating that
in the international market there were no indicators that suggested that the volume and price of world
production and exports, both present and future, should not be equal to or even greater than in 2000.
253
Chile submits that all relevant factors of an objective and quantifiable nature, properly evaluated, do
not indicate that the behaviour of imports towards the end of 2000 constituted a threat of serious
injury.254
4.101  According to Chile , the CNCE unjustifiably predicts that serious injury will occur based on
the simple assertion that there were no indicators in the international markets to prove that the volumeand price of world production and exports would decrease either then or in the future.  The CNCE
does not provide any analysis to demonstrate the truth of its assertion or explain how and why, nor
does it provide empirical evidence in support of its prediction.  Its assertion rests on an assumption
based on the lack of indicators in the international market.  In other words, on the basis of a negative
fact, it assumes a positive fact, that the volume and price of world production and exports in 2000 andin subsequent years could be the same or even higher.  It bases its finding of threat of serious injury
on a highly vague and ambiguous assumption, stating that the said assumption justifies the conclusion
that such a threat exists because international market conditions such as they are will not be changing
in future years.  In other words, it bases one assumption on another assumption.  Chile also argues that
the CNCE should have focussed more specific ally on production and exports from the two main
origins:  Greece and Chile.
 255
4.102  Argentina  emphasizes that the determination of threat of serious injury, far from having been
made on the basis of mere conjecture or remote possibility, was based on facts.  Argentina observes
that Chile itself appears to recognize that the analysis effected by Argentina supports a determination
of the existence of the threat of serious injury.  Argentina argues that according to Chile, the
Argentine investigating authority was guilty of inc onsistency in maintaining that the volume and price
of world production and exports would not decrease in the future.  It is obvious to Argentina thatChile agrees that the current situation is one of threat of injury.  Otherwise, why would it lay stress on
the future if it could demonstrate that the informat ion considered by the investigating authority at the
time of its determination was false.  Argentina also submits that the Appellate Body in US – Line Pipe
found that before serious injury occurs "there is a continuous progression of injurious effects
eventually rising and culminating in what can be dete rmined to be 'serious injury', serious injury does
not generally occur suddenly…".  Accordingly, th e Appellate Body found that the threat of serious
                                                     
253 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.65.
254 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.66.
255 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.68.WT/DS238/R
Page 34
injury requires a lower threshold than serious injury  and this distinction serves to allow an importer
Member to act sooner to take preventive action when increased imports posed a 'threat' of 'serious
injury' to a domestic industry, but have not yet caused 'serious injury'.256
4. Demonstration of the existence of a causal link.  Articles 2.1, 3.1 and 4.2(b) of the
Agreement on Safeguards.
4.103  Chile  submits that the CNCE failed to establish a genuine and substantial causal link between
the alleged increased imports and the alleged threat of serious injury to the domestic industry as
required by Articles 2 and 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards.  According to Chile, Article 4.2(b)
requires that the competent authorities demonstrate, "on the basis of objective evidence", the existence
of a causal link.257  Chile further submits that these violations point to a breach of Article 3.1 of the
Agreement on Safeguards, since the CNCE's re port does not provide any reasoned and adequate
explanation of the findings and conclusions reached on all pertinent issues of fact and law relating tothe determination of causal link.
258
4.104  Chile  maintains that, for an analysis of causation to be consistent with Articles 2 and 4.2(b) of
the Agreement on Safeguards, the methodology adopted by the investigating authorities must consist
of a three-stage approach that complies with the so-called principle of non-attribution of injurious
effects of other factors as has been described by the Appellate Body.259 260 Chile contends that, in
order to explain their determination of causal link, the competent authorities must establish explicitly,
through a reasoned and adequate explanation, that injury caused by factors other than increased
imports is not attributed to increased imports.  In its view, this explanation must be clear and
unambiguous, it must not merely imply or suggest an explanation and it must be a straightforward
explanation in explicit terms.261 262
4.105  Argentina  contests these claims and refers to Se ction V.4 of the Anne x to Record No. 781
concerning the determination of threat of injury as a result of imports which concludes with the
statement "[t]he import situation and the degree of variation and sensitivity of the indicators listed and
described in Section V.2 prove the existence of a causal link between the investigated imports and the
threat of serious injury."263
4.106  Chile  replies that Argentina's defence merely repeats part of what was stated by the CNCE.264
In Chile's view, the CNCE's analysis does not meet the obligations laid down in Article 4.2(b) since
the CNCE fails to:
(a) ensure objectively that an alleged threat of injury is correctly attributed to an alleged
increase in imports;
(b) identify other possible factors that could explain the alleged threat of injury other than
an alleged increase in imports;
                                                     
256 See Argentina's first oral statement, paragraph 53.
257 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.72.
258 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.100.
259 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Reports, US – Wheat Gluten,  paragraph 69 and US – Lamb,
paragraph 177.
260 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.74.
261 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Line Pipe , paragraphs 216 and 217.
262 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.75.  See also Chile's First Oral statement,
paragraph 39.
263 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 108.
264 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 42.WT/DS238/R
Page 35
(c) separate the injurious effects of an alleged increase in imports from those caused
simultaneously by other factors;
(d) identify the nature and scope of the injurious effects of an alleged increase in imports
as distinct from the injurious effects of other known factors;
(e) explain satisfactorily the nature and scope of these injurious effects;
(f) establish explicitly, through a reasoned and adequate explanation, that the alleged
threat of injury caused by factors other than the alleged increase in imports is not
attributed to increased imports; and
(g) provide a clear and unequivocal explanation; merely implying or suggesting an
explanation.265
4.107  Chile  further contends that regardless of whether there is any foundation for Argentina's
arguments, the fact is that these arguments are merely a set of ex post facto  explanations which cannot
be found among the remarks made by the CNCE directors at the time when they should have been
analysing the causal link between the alleged increased imports and an alleged threat of serious
injury.266 267
(a) Whether Argentina followed any rule with respect to the determination of the causal link
4.108  Chile  claims that Argentina gave inadequate consideration to certain relevant factors while
failing to analyse others.  In Chile's view, most of the relevant factors, if not all, that the CNCE
considered or failed to consider, do not point to any causal link between the alleged threat of serious
injury and the alleged increase in imports.268  Chile is also of the view that, in supporting its
determination, the CNCE does not distinguish or separate the effect of the factors that it did consider
from the effect of others factors that it did not analyse and which may have had an influence on theloss of market share adduced by the industry.  Th us, from a methodological point of view, the CNCE's
examination of causality did not enable it to establish whether there was a genuine and substantial
causal link between the adduced loss of market share and the recovery of imports.  In Chile's view,
this constitutes a violation Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards.
269  Chile claims that the
CNCE attributes its determination of threat of seri ous injury, in absolute terms, to alleged increased
imports.  Chile maintains that although other factors were recorded in the investigation, they were
excluded by the authority when it came to analysing them or determining their impact on the situation
of the domestic industry.  Chile contends that, not only does Argentina fail to include anywhere the
objective criteria justifying this manner of proceeding, but it does not even recognize the existence of
other factors that could have had an influence on the loss of market share.270
4.109  Argentina  responds that Chile's assertions regarding its understanding of the causal link are
erroneous.  Argentina points out that the investig ating authority acted correctly in considering the
effect caused by imports separately from the effect caused by other factors.  In this regard, Argentina
submits that this point was established by the Appellate Body.271  Argentina considers that Chile
interprets the Agreement on Safeguards incorrectly when it contends that imports by themselves,
separately from other factors, must reach the necessary threshold in order to qualify as a threat of
                                                     
265 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 43.  See also Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 42.
266 Chile refers to the arguments by Argentina in paragraphs 108 to 127 of its first written submission
and paragraphs 54 to 74 of its first oral statement.
267 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 43.
268 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.100.
269 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.76.
270 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.77 to 4.78.
271 Argentina refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 179.WT/DS238/R
Page 36
serious injury.  In Argentina's view, although the increased imports must contribute to causing the
injury or the threat of injury, this does not mean that they are capable by themselves of causing injury
or threat thereof.  In other words, there is no implication that imports must be the only cause of
serious injury or threat of serious injury.  Arge ntina submits that the Appellate Body has already
established that the way Chile interprets the obligations under the Agreement on Safeguards isinaccurate.
272 273
4.110  Chile  contends that Argentina is misinterpreting Chile's arguments.  Chile explains that it
never said that the CNCE in fact identified, distinguished and separated the effects of alleged
increased imports from the effects of other factors.   Chile contends that it argued and proved exactly
the opposite.  It points out that it demonstrated th at the CNCE directors, without going through the
exercise of identifying, separating and evaluating the effects of other factors which coincided with the
alleged increased imports, simply attributes all of the alleged threat of injury to those imports.  Chilefurther submits that what it has said is that in order to attribute threat of injury properly, the competent
authorities must demonstrate that an alleged increase in imports has alone reached the threshold for
qualification as "serious".  By this, it intended to make it clear that there must at least be a genuine
and substantial cause-effect relationship between the alleged increased imports and a threat of serious
injury, regardless of any other factors which may at the same time be contributing to the existence ofsuch a threat.
274 275
(b) Whether there were other objective and quantifiable factors that the CNCE did not analyse
4.111  Chile  claims that the file of the investigation records a series of relevant factors which may
have had an influence on the loss of market share adduced by the Argentine industry that the CNCE
did not consider or evaluate in making its finding of a causal link.  In addition, there are other publicand well-known economic factors which the CNCE could not objectively overlook.
 276  Chile contends
that, although the majority of these factors are recorded in the file of the investigation, and although
some of them were well known to the public, they are not even identified by the CNCE in its causal
analysis.  Chile submits that Argentina at no time provides any explanation of this fundamental
omission – rather, it says, it simply tries to address the possible injury factors indicated by Chile,arguing that they are not alleged injury factors and consequently bear no causal relation to the said
threat.
277  Chile argues that, regardless of whether this explanation by Argentina is correct or not, it
does not appear in, or form part of, the CNCE's causa l analysis.  In its view, the entire argument is an
ex post facto  explanation.278
4.112  Argentina  replies that it conducted its threat of injury analysis in compliance with
Article 4.2(a) and (b) of the Agreement on Safeguards.279  Argentina argues that in the course of the
investigation, as Chile acknowledges, the investigating authority did establish the serious injuryfactors other than increased imports.  In doing s o, the investigating authority distinguished between
the effects of these factors and the impact of imports, and also explained their nature and scope.  Thus,
Argentina contends, it is difficult to agree with Chil e's assertions to the effect that the investigating
authority did not act in conformity with Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards.  In
                                                     
272 Argentina refers to the Appellate Body Reports, US – Wheat Gluten , paragraph 67; and US – Line
Pipe, paragraph 209.
273 See Argentina's first oral statement, paragraphs 54 to 56.
274 Chile refers to paragraph 4.77 of its first written su bmission and paragraphs 38 et seq. of its first oral
statement.  See paragraph 4.108 of the present report.
275 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 37 to 42.
276 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.79.
277 Chile refers to paragraphs 109 to 127 of Argentina's first written submission.
278 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 45
279 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 109.WT/DS238/R
Page 37
Argentina's view, if Chile recognizes that the effects of the factors other than imports are recorded in
the file of the investigation, it cannot at the same time claim that the argument is belated.280
(i) Whether CNCE analysed other factors that appear in the technical report
Imports from Greece
4.113  Chile submits that, assuming for a moment that the threat of injury alleged by CAFIM was
real, and based strictly on the facts and considerations recorded in the CNCE report, there was no
separate identification in that report of the alleged injurious effects of a factor which is qualified in the
file itself as the substantial and authentic cause of the said threat, that factor being specific imports
from Greece which, according to the report, are the main origin, and which, given that country's
pricing structures and policies, enter the Argentine market under unfair trading conditions281, with a
clear capacity to displace the domestic industry and cause it serious injury.282  Chile further submits
that it is not its intention to make a value judgement or a pronouncement on whether or not exports ofGreek peaches represent unfair trading practices.  Chile indicates that it is making this argument in
accordance with the objective merit of the record cont ained in the investigation file, which is what in
principle and in the final analysis is important, to ascertaining whether Argentina acted consistently
with its WTO obligations.
4.114  As Chile sees it, the requirement of threat of serious injury or serious injury under
Article XIX.1(a) of the GATT 1994 and Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards applies to
imports in general, without distinction as to origin, which enter the market of a specific Member
under "fair" trading conditions.
283  Chile  contends that any reader, upon reading the "file of the
investigation", would objectively conclude that on the merits of that file, the genuine and substantial
cause of the alleged threat of injury determined  by the CNCE and alleged by CAFIM was not imports
in general occurring under fair competition.  Rather, it claims, it was imports specifically from Greece
(the main origin), and not Chile, that were able, owing to their volume, but above all to their price, to
cause injury to the domestic industry, a situation that was aggravated by the seasonal differences in
the production and harvest of the product under investigation between Argentina (Southern
Hemisphere) and Greece (Northern Hemisphere).284 285  Chile points out that this was the case in spite
                                                     
280 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 37.
281 In response to question No. 56 of the Panel (" Please refer to paragraph 50 of Chile's written
rebuttal.  Does Chile allege that an investigating authority must establish that products are being imported in
conditions of fair competition before it imposes a safeguard measure? "), Chile explains that although the
investigating authority is not required to establish in its report whether products from a specific origin are beingimported in conditions of fair competition before it imposes a safeguard measure, it must evaluate thecharacteristics of the imports from such origin and the conditions in which they compete with the domestic
product, as compared with the characteristics and conditions of competition of imports from other origins.  An
investigating authority can thus perfectly determine whether the genuine and substantial cause of an allegedthreat of injury is imports from one origin in particular on the basis of the conditions in which they enter itsmarket.  If the causal link is demonstrated by the facts under investigation, it is not appropriate to impose asafeguard measure on imports in general, without discrimination as to their origin.  Moreover, if imports fromone origin in particular enter the country in conditions of unfair competition, the appropriate measure would be
an anti-dumping or countervailing duty.  If those imports were already subject to a countervailing duty but this
failed to effectively offset the effects of the subsidy, it would be appropriate to increase that duty but not toimpose a safeguard measure.
282 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 46.
283 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraph 48.
284 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 45.
285 See also Chile's response to question No. 20.a) of the Panel (" Why does Chile assert that, in the view
of Argentina and CAFIM, a situati on of unfair competition continued to  exist despite the imposition of
countervailing measures? ") and 20.b) (" Does Chile believe that the imposition of countervailing measures on
imports of certain products prevents the imposition of sa feguard measures on imports of the same products?  If
so, on what basis? ") of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
Page 38
of the imposition of countervailing duties in September 1996 on imports of preserved peaches from
the European Union.  Chile submits that the imposition of countervailing duties, in spite of the
minimum specific import duty of US$0.20 per kg imported, failed to place the imports from the main
origin (Greece) in a fair-trade situation.286  In paragraph 47 of its Rebuttal, Chile cites 36 passages
from the "file of the investigation" 287, including passages from a) the opinions of the directors who
voted in favor as well as against the measure, as included in the Annex to Record No. 781; and b) the
conclusions of the investigation authority and the arguments of CAFIM and its associated companies,
as included in the technical report.  It also submits that a proper analysis of the statistical tables and
charts in the annex to the technical report reveals that the cited passages are merely a faithful
reflection of that data.288
4.115  Argentina  contests Chile's argument to the effect that it is peaches of a distinct origin that are
responsible for the situation of the industry and, in particular, its statement whereby the investigationitself attributes the situation to peaches from the European Union (more specifically, from Greece).
Argentina indicates that in its reply to the questions of the Panel, it provided a detailed account of the
situation with respect to the application of countervailing duties to peaches from the European Union.
However, it adds, the analysis of this element ca rried out in the framework of the investigation
essentially concerned matters relating to the capacity to generate stocks, the excess harvest in Greeceowing to favourable climatic conditions and the price flexibility of peaches of that origin.  In its view,
it bears no relationship to the notion that in spite of the application of countervailing duties, peaches
of European origin continued to be traded under unfair competition.
289  It further argues that a passage
cited by Chile in footnote 27 of its first oral statement confirms this.290  In response to question No. 55
of the Panel291, Argentina  indicated that the subsidy component  of the imports from Greece was duly
neutralized by the countervailing duties.
Cyclical nature of imports and net importer status
4.116  Chile  maintains that the international preserved peaches market is cyclical because it is so
closely associated with agricultural fluctuations affecting producers, particularly Greece.  At the same
time the supply of preserved peaches from Greece has a strong influence on international prices, andhence on the volume of exports to its markets of destination.  Climatic factors in Greece led to a sharp
fall in Argentine imports in 1997/1998.  If, according to Chile, over the past ten years Argentina has
pursued a policy of opening up to the international preserved peaches market, it is logical that its
industry should be sensitive to changes in that market, particularly the fluctuations and cycles of the
leading world producer and exporter.  In fact, Ch ile claims, the technical report shows that the
domestic industry increased the volume of sales on the domestic market, having to reduce its exports,
at least in 2000, to satisfy domestic demand.
292
                                                     
286 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 46.
287 Chile cites passages from pages 6 to 14 of the Annex to Record No. 781 and from pages 32 to 91 of
the technical report.
288 Chile refers to Table 15.3, to Charts 3, 4, 5.1 and 5.2, Tables 16.1 and 16.2, Charts 6, 7.1, 7.2, 8.1,
8.2, Tables 17 and 18 and Chart 9 of the technical report.
289 Argentina refers to Exhibits ARG-II, ARG-III, ARG-IV, ARG-IX and ARG-XI.
290 Argentina cites " These changes at the international level have resulted in unforeseen and
unexpected imports of the product under investigation from d ifferent origins, with a growth in imports from the
EU, taking place under conditions su ch that although fair competition has been restored through the
application of countervailing duties, the increase has been sharp over the past two years. "
291 Namely, " Chile’s answer to question 20(c) indicates that it believes that  "the cause of the alleged
threat of serious injury appears to be imports from  Greece in conditions of ‘unfair’ competition".  Could
subsidization of production in Greece have contributed to th e threat of serious injury to the Argentine industry?
If not, why not?  If so, where did the competent authorities take it into account in their assessment of the causallink between the increased imports and the threat of serious injury? ".
292 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.82 to 4.87.WT/DS238/R
Page 39
4.117  Argentina  does not agree that the international preserved peaches market is cyclical "because
it is so closely associated with agricultural fluctuations affecting producers" and refers to Tables 5 to
13 in the "International market" section of the technical report as showing that there was no evolution
of the kind described by Chile.  Nor does Argentina agree with the reference to Argentina's "position
of net importer" because it takes no account of the structural changes that took place in the Argentineproductive sector when Argentina began opening up its market.
293
Change from the status of importer to a more export-oriented position
4.118  Chile  claims that, notwithstanding the low volume of exports in 2000 as a result of the need
to satisfy domestic demand, the recent evolution of domestic production, as recorded in the technical
report, reflects a change in the position of the domestic industry from net importer to exporter.  Chile
explains that, leaving aside 1998, during which imports were minimal, in 1999, when their recovery
was already nearing completion, Argentina exported 6,878 tons and imported 6,601 tons.  In Chile'sview, this trend towards a more export-oriented position could be having an influence on the loss of
market share adduced by the domestic industry.
294
Climatic factors
4.119  As regards local climatic risks and integration of production,  Chile  contends that, according
to the technical report, one element which has a direct impact on local output is the high climatic riskin the Mendoza area which affects the quantities, and hence the prices, of peaches available for the
industry.  The fact that the manufacturing industry has become closely integrated with the primary
sector has meant that the manufacturing industry now has to assume the risks associated with the
climate directly.  This factor is of particular im portance in determining the levels of competitiveness
of the peach processing industry as well as its fixed costs, and could have a direct impact on the lossof market share adduced by CAFIM.
295  As regards world climatic factors,  Chile submits that,
although between 1997 and 1998 there was a disruption in the historical levels of imports, the CNCE
failed to take into consideration and evaluate the possible effect of this factor in its analysis.  On the
contrary, Chile claims, it makes its findings by comparing the situation of the domestic industry
during 1999 and 2000 without considering the trends for those years in the context of a recovery ofimports.  As an example, Chile mentions that Greece's lower prices in 1999 and 2000 can be
explained to a considerable extent by the fact that those years were preceded by two years of high
prices due to the lack of supply of canned peaches and to the increase in exportable production.
296 297
4.120  Argentina submits that, as regards the climatic factors, both domestic and international, these
were evaluated in the context of Record No. 781 and the corresponding report.  Firstly, it argues, the
surplus harvest in Greece in the 1999/2000 season was reflected in the volumes and stocks available
to be poured onto the export markets on top of the average values for the decade, as shown in thesection on the evolution of international trade in preserved peaches (pages 46 to 72 of the technical
report) containing tables reflecting the breakdown by country of the evolution of world production as
well as exportable volume and stocks, based on USDA information.  According to Argentina, these
values show (technical report, page 59, Table No. 7) that in the case of the leading world exporter and
supplier (Greece), available stocks in 1999 and 2000 were 152.25 per cent and 173.27 per cent higher,respectively, than the average for the whole period 1990/2000.  In its view, these stocks, in a context
such as the Argentine one in which consumption of preserved peaches was growing during the period
                                                     
293 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 110 and 111. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraph 57 and 58.
294 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.88 to 4.89.
295 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.90 to 4.92.
296 Chile refers to the analysis made by one of the directors who voted against the application of the
measure, Annex to Record No. 781, page 14, paragraph 5.
297 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.93 to 4.94.WT/DS238/R
Page 40
under analysis while import prices were falling steadily (technical report, Table No. 16, page 1484) to
the point where imports were systematically marketed at prices lower than domestic prices – by up to
20 per cent in 1999 and 2000 – and with domestic production increasing until 1999, cannot in any
way be considered part of the normal cycle of recovery of the sector - in fact, they constitute a threat
of injury scenario.298
4.121  Argentina considers that Chile's argument is biased and partial, in that it takes no account of
the difference in context between the 1995/96 period and the 1999/00299 whilst, at the same time, even
Chile could not but acknowledge the importance of Greece in world trade in preserved peaches300, and
hence Greece's capacity to influence the world cycle, particularly prices, with its enormous production
capacity and above all, its export capacity.301  In Argentina's view, this can be seen in the enormous
diversity of f.o.b. price quotations for Greek peaches depending on the market of destination, the
quotation for the Argentine market being, in 1999, among the lowest, a fact which explains theincrease in exports during 2000.
302  Argentina submits that Chile's claim is without foundation given
the fall in Argentine production in 2000 of 12 per cent in the context of growth in apparent
consumption over the previous year. 303  As regards company strategy in this sector during the 1990s,
Argentina replies304 that there was an extensive adjustment that enabled these companies to reduce
climatic risks while ensuring a more reliable supply of raw materials, through technical improvementsand vertical integration with the primary sector.  Argentina submits that Chile itself admits that
Argentina improved its competitive capacity, as demonstrated beyond question by the evolution of
production costs for peaches.
 305 306
(ii) Whether there were other factors which the CNCE should have analysed that do not appear
in the technical report
4.122  Chile  claims that there are various factors which are not reflected in the technical report, such
as the devaluation of the euro against the dollar and the Argentine economic situation which should
have been analysed by the CNCE.
Devaluation of the euro against the dollar
4.123  Chile observes that, as soon as the euro was introduced in 1999, it began to devalue against
the dollar (as did the drachma in Greece, which adopted the euro in January 2000).  Chile indicates
that, coupled with the dollarization of the Argentine peso until recently, this could reasonably be seen
to have had an influence on the rate of recovery of imports of preserved peaches from the European
Union, particularly Greece.  To Chile, it follows that this factor could have been linked to the loss of
market share adduced by the domestic industry. 307
                                                     
298 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 112 to 115.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 59 to 62.
299 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 116.
300 Argentina refers to paragraph 4.82 of Chile's first written submission.  See paragraph 4.116 of the
present report.
301 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 117.
302 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 118.
303 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 119. See also Argentina's first oral statement,
paragraphs 63 to 66.
304 Argentina refers to paragraph 4.91 of Chile's first written submission.  See paragraph 4.119 of the
present report.
305 Argentina refers to Tables 10.1, 10.2, 10.3 and 10.4 of the annex to the technical report; sheets 1452
to 1455.
306 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 120 to 121.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 67 to 68.
307 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.95.WT/DS238/R
Page 41
4.124  Argentina  responds that, first of all, regardless of whether or not there was an analysis of this
variable, it should be recalled that in normative terms, the evolution of the exchange rate, particularly
if the resulting competitive improvement is sustained over time, does not preclude the legitimate right
of a country to adopt the necessary measures to protect its industry which could otherwise be
seriously impaired.  In Argentina's view, although obvious, it bears recalling that a safeguard is amechanism that is activated in conditions of fair competition in response to an objective situation of
competitive difference where there is injury or threat of injury to the domestic industry.  Argentina
adds that the fact that the situation may be the result of a technological improvement, the
accumulation of inventories, production shocks or whatever in no way changes the situation as
regards the justification of the measure, provided  all of the relevant factors have been properly
evaluated.
  Secondly, Argentina argues, in macroeconomic terms, it is a well-known fact that the
effects of a devaluation are never immediate, particularly in the case of primary products whoseproduction is distinctly seasonal.  In other words, when it comes to explaining the surplus harvest in
Greece and the historical accumulation of stocks, Greek overproduction precedes the devaluation in
causal terms.  Moreover, Argentina insists, the values referred to by Chile are purely nominal, i.e.
they do not reflect the effective exchange rate (net of the relevant inflation index and possible export
taxes).
 308
Argentine economic situation
4.125  Chile  claims that the CNCE completely avoided recording and examining the Argentine
economic situation.  Indeed, Chile argues, towards the end of 2000, Argentina's level of indebtedness,
both private and State, was extremely high and there was a general default on payments and decline in
the purchasing power of the various economic intermediaries, a situation that did not spare thedomestic preserved peaches industry.  In view of this situation of imminent economic crisis, Chile
claims that it is difficult to understand why th e CNCE completely avoided recording and examining
this factor in its investigation for the purposes of analysing the possible reasons for the domestic
industry's loss in market share.
309
4.126  Argentina  responds that imports at decreasing, and, relatively speaking, low prices,
introduced a substitution effect at the consumption-related stage of the product's cycle.  Argentina
explains that the fall in imports in 1998 due to the influence of climatic factors, and the subsequent
stage, involving a recovery followed by progress beyond historical values, took place in a context in
which the production situation in the preserved peaches sector in Argentina was changing and
consumption was affected by a high rate of price-induced substitution.  On this basis, Argentina
submits, it was found that the effect of the economic recession in Argentina was not a factor in the
deterioration of the sector as Chile claims, but that the chain of negative effects for a sector whoseproduction was undergoing adjustment was initiated and aggravated by the presence of a volume of
low-price imports.
 310
(c) Whether the upward trend in imports coincides with negative trends in other injury factors
4.127  Chile considers that, as stated in the file of the investigation, most, if not all, of the threat of
injury factors which the CNCE may or may not have invoked in support of its threat of injury finding,point to the exact opposite.  According to Chile, t hose factors were either negative before the recovery
                                                     
308 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 123 to 124. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 69 to 71.
309 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.96.
310 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 126 to 127.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 72 to 74.WT/DS238/R
Page 42
of imports during 1999 and 2000, or evolved positively  when the recovery took place, or suffered
only a very small decline in 2000, or did several of the above at the same time.311
4.128  According to Chile , the annual production capacity of preserved peaches for companies in the
survey list totalled 38,110 tons in 1997 and 44,430 tons in 1998.  During the years that followed, in
which the CNCE describes a sharp and unforeseen increase in imports, production capacity rose to51,010, and 53,130 respectively.  Chile further indicates that the degree of utilization of production
capacity for the companies in the survey list was 71 per cent in 1997 and 73 per cent in 1998, while in
the two following years it reached 88 per cent and 73 per cent respectively.  It adds that the
profitability (net result/total assets) of the companie s in the survey list rose at the end of the period
when imports began to recover, and fell when imports were interrupted.  Examples of the former are
La Colina: with an increase from 2 per cent in 1999 to 3 per cent in 2000, and IAM, which  remained
at 4 per cent from 1998 to 2000.  An example of the latter is Cartellone, with a profitability of close to0 per cent in 1997, falling to minus 2 per cent during the year in which the disruption reached its peak
(1998), and remaining negative up to 2000.  In the case of Benvenuto, profitability was at 9 per cent
during 1997, falling to 6 per cent during the following year and remaining at 5 per cent during 1999
and 2000.  As regards the apparent consumption of preserved peaches of Argentine origin for 1999
and 2000, when the CNCE claims that there was a sharp and unforeseen increase in imports, theytotalled 55,763 tons for 1999 and 55,020 tons for 2000. However, these are CNCE estimates made
without any explanation of the methodology used.  Chile adds that the figures provided by CAFIM
were 55,763 tons for 1999 and 32,774 tons for 2000.  Chile argues that, if we compare 1998 and 2000
on the basis of the CNCE estimate, we find that in 1998, when imports were at a minimum, and in
2000, when growth in apparent domestic consumption was 17,383 tons:  imports (adjusted forinventories) increased by 7,308 tons, and sales of the domestic product increased by 10,075 tons.  As
regards the employment level in the peach production sector, Chile sustains that it increased by 18 per
cent in 1999, decreasing slightly (by 4 per cent) in 2000.
312  According to Chile, this shows that there
is no causal link between the upward trend of imports during 1999 and 2000 (recovery) and the
alleged threat of injury claimed by CAFIM and found by the CNCE. 313
5. Permissible extent of application of the measure. Article 5.1 of the Agreement on
Safeguards
4.129  Chile  maintains that the concept of serious injury or threat of serious injury in Article 5.1 of
the Agreement on Safeguards is the same as that which appears in Article 4.  Chile claims that, with
respect to Article 4.2(b) in particular, the safeguard measure that is imposed must necessarily be
proportionate to the injury or threat of injury attributable to the increase in imports that the competent
authorities have adequately determined on the basi s of an objective examination of the causal link.314
Chile submits that, bearing in mind that Argentin a failed to comply with its obligations under
Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards, the m easure at issue can also be presumed to violate
Article 5.1.315 316  Chile further argues that, without prejudice to the above, the facts show that the
measure, its level and the way it was formulated, went beyond and continues to go beyond the extent
necessary to prevent the alleged threat of serious injury and facilitate adjustment.  The specific dutyimposed is so out of proportion that it is tantamount to an import prohibition.  This is confirmed by
                                                     
311 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.97.
312 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.97.
313 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.99.
314 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.104.
315 In response to question No. 23 of the Panel (" Does Chile allege that the measure falls within Article
5.1, second sentence, of the Agreement on Safeguards, which applies to quantitative restrictions? "), Chile
confirmed that it alleges that the Argentine safeguard measure violates the first sentence of Article 5.1 of theAgreement on Safeguards.
316 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.105.WT/DS238/R
Page 43
the fact that since the application of the provisional safeguard measure, to date, Argentina has not
imported any preserved peaches from Chile or indeed any other country.317
4.130  Argentina  submits that Chile is confining itself to dogmatic statements to the effect that the
measure does not meet the requirements of Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  Argentina
submits that, contrary to what Chile maintains, it has shown that it complied with the requirements ofArticle 4 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
318  Argentina also refers to Chile's statement to the effect
that Argentina has failed to comply with Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards because the
measure, consisting of the application of specific duties, went beyond the extent necessary to prevent
the threat of serious injury and to facilitate adjustment.319  Argentina responds that Chile substantiates
this statement by merely indicating the amount of the specific duties and their share of the percentage
of customs duties applied to Chilean exports, and maintaining, without further explanation, that this
amounted to an import prohibition.  In this connection, Argentina points out that in accordance withArticle 2.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards, a safeguard is applied to a product being imported
irrespective of its source.
320
4.131  Chile  replies321 that the concept of serious injury (including threat of serious injury) used in
Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards is the same as the concept used in Article 5.1.
Consequently, Chile argues, if the CNCE made no anal ysis enabling it properly to attribute the alleged
threat of serious injury to an alleged increase in  imports, it is impossible for that authority to have
determined and known what was the extent necessary to prevent that threat and to facilitate
adjustment.  Chile stresses that the mere fact of  having demonstrated that the CNCE did not comply
with its obligations under Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards establishes a presumption or
a prima facie case that the Argentine measure in turn violated Article 5.1 of the said Agreement.322  In
Chile's view, this prima facie case or presumption is not in any way rebutted by Argentina.323
4.132  Argentina  considers that, as argued by the United States in its third party submission in this
dispute, even if Argentina had acted inconsistently with Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards, that does not justify the presumption that the said inconsistency automatically entails non-
compliance with Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.324  In this connection, Argentina points
out that, where such a presumption exists under the WTO Agreements, it is explicitly indicated.325  In
response to question No. 22 of the Panel326, Argentina explained that the views of Chile and the
European Communities are based on the Appellate Body Report in US – Line Pipe .  In Argentina's
view, the circumstances of that dispute do not match the circumstances of this case since the
conclusions of the Appellate Body in that case are based on the circumstance that the United States
had not acted in conformity with Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards, nor had it refuted
that claim.  Argentina submits that neither of these two elements of this precedent apply to this case,
                                                     
317 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.106 to 4.108.
318 Argentina refers to paragraph 4.105 of Chile's first written submission.  See paragraph 4.129 of the
present report.
319 Argentina refers to paragraphs 4.106 to 4.108 of Chile's first written submission.  See paragraph
4.129 of the present report.
320 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 128 to 132.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 75 to 80.
321 Chile refers to Argentina's arguments in paragraphs 128 to 132 of its first written submission.  See
paragraph 4.130 of the present report.
322 Chile refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Line Pipe , paragraphs 249, 252, 261 and 262.
323 See Chile's first oral statement, paragraphs 56 to 57.
324 Argentina refers to paragraphs 17 to 20 and texts quoted therein, of the United States' third party
submission.  See paragraph 5.27 of the present report.
325 See Argentina's first oral statement, paragraph 78.
326 Namely, " Could Argentina comment on the views of Chile, the United States and the European
Communities as to whether a violati on of Article 4.2(b) of the Agreem ent on Safeguards constitutes a prima
facie case of a violation of Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards? ".WT/DS238/R
Page 44
since Chile has not demonstrated that Argentina violated Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards and Argentina has refuted that claim.
4.133  Chile  insists that the "serious injury" referred to in Article 4.2 and the "serious injury"
referred to in the first sentence of Article 5.1 are the same.  In its view, the principle of non-attribution
established in Article 4.2(b) has two purposes: (i) it seeks to ensure that in situations in which thereare various factors causing injury at the same time, the competent authorities do not infer the required
"causal link" between alleged increased imports and an alleged threat of serious injury or actual
serious injury on the basis of the injurious effects of factors other than the said increased imports;  and
(ii) it serves as a criterion for ensuring that only an appropriate share of the overall injury is attributed
to alleged increased imports.  According to Chile, it is precisely this second purpose that determines
the circumstances in which it is acceptable to apply a safeguard measure under the first sentence of
Article 5.1.  Thus, Chile concludes, if the complainant demonstrates that the respondent violatedArticle 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards, it establishes a prima facie case of violation of the
obligation imposed by the first sentence of Article 5.1.
327
4.134  Chile  observes that, in its reply to question No. 9 of the Panel328, Argentina points out that at
the time of the investigation and the adoption of the safeguard measure, Chile was paying a tariff of
11.5 per cent because it had a preference of 30 per cent under Economic Complementarity AgreementNo. 35.  Chile contends that this reply is entirely wrong.  It explains that on 18 January 2001, when
Argentina applied the provisional safeguard measure consisting in a specific duty of US$0.50 per kg.
net imported, Chile did in fact pay a tariff of 11.5 per cent in view of its tariff preference.  However,
during the investigation that was under way and prior to the imposition of the definitive safeguard
measure, the tariff increased from 16.5 per cent to 30 per cent, finally settling at 28 per cent.  Thus,the tariff paid by Chile was 19.6 per cent considering the tariff preference.  It was only in March 2002
that Argentina restored the tariff to its original level of 16.5 per cent (11.5 per cent for Chile).
329
Thus, Chile concludes, the specific duties applied under the safeguard measure, combined with Chile'stariff situation as described above and the tariff situation of the member States of the European
Communities, almost automatically spelled the total elimination of outside competition for preserved
peaches in the Argentine market.
4.135  Also in its Rebuttal, Chile  claims that it has not made any dogmatic statements to
demonstrate that the safeguard measure went beyond the extent necessary to prevent the alleged threat
of serious injury and facilitate adjustment.
330  Chile submits that it has explained and provided
evidence of how the minimum specific import duty app lied with the safeguard led to a situation where
since its provisional imposition, the flow of exports of the product under investigation to Argentina
from the main origins, Chile and Greece, has halted completely.331  In any case, Chile argues, if
Argentina is of the opinion that this statement is dogmatic and not true, it should provide the Panel
with official information showing the contrary.332
4.136  Argentina  stresses that the application of the safeguard measure complies with the
requirement set forth in Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards in that it is applied only to the
extent necessary to prevent or remedy the serious injury and facilitate adjustment.  Indeed, Argentinaexplains, imports rose from 3,568 tons in 1998 to 7,271 tons in 1999, and then to 12,181 tons in 2000.
In relative terms, these volumes represented annual increases of 103.7 per cent and 68 per cent
respectively.  Furthermore, it adds, if one analyses imports in volume as a percentage of domestic
                                                     
327 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 54 to 55.
328 See footnote 36 of the present report.
329 Chile refers to footnotes 52 and 53 to its first written submission.
330 Chile is refuting Argentina's statements to this end in paragraph 128 of its first written submission.
See paragraph 4.130 of the present report.
331 Chile refers to paragraphs 4.107 to 4.108 of its first written submission, and Exhibits CHL-9, CHL-
10 and CHL-11.  See paragraph 4.129 of the present report.
332 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 58.WT/DS238/R
Page 45
production, we note a sharp increase of 10 per cent between 1999 and 2000.  Likewise, the growth
rate for that indicator (imports as a percentage of production) reached 90 per cent for 2000 as
compared to 1999.  One must also take account of the price of the imported product in relation to the
price of the domestic product (US$1.081).  If one bears this factor in mind, one can see that the
application of the safeguard measure was appropriate (US$0.50).  If the amount of the specific dutyunder the safeguard measure had been less, the application of the measure would not have had any
effect on imports.  The price of Greek peaches, on ce the safeguard duty is deducted, is US$0.654.  In
the light of these circumstances, Argentina claims that it is easy enough to understand the rationality
of the measure, which provides for a liberalization period involving a percentage reduction of the
measure. The reduction is of 10 per cent for the year following the base year and 20 per cent for the
last year.  Finally, Argentina notes that pursuant to Article 2.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards, a
safeguard measure is applied irrespective of the origin of the product.
333
6. Investigation report.  Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
4.137  Chile claims that it does not emerge from the file of the investigation "published"334 by the
competent authorities (the Record No. 781 and the technical report) that the CNCE made adequate
and sufficient findings on all the pertinent issues of fact and law which, pursuant to Article XIX of the
GATT 1994 and the Agreement on Safeguards, must be  investigated, analysed, established, found and
verified, as provided in the final part of Article 3.1 of the Agreement.  Consequently, in Chile's view,
the safeguarded measure imposed by Argentina violates its obligations under that Article.335
4.138  Argentina  replies that Chile appears to be confusing the obligation to publish a report setting
forth the findings and reasoned conclusions reached on issues of fact and law with the substantive
elements in Articles 2 and 4 of the Agreement on Safeguards which must be established in order toapply a measure.  Argentina understands that the inconsistency of a measure with the substantive
requirements of the Agreement on Safeguards cannot also be claimed under Article 3.1 of the
Agreement on Safeguards vis-à-vis  the substantive requirements imposed by the Agreement on
Safeguards for the application of a measure.  Argentina therefore considers that in accordance with its
detailed analysis, the CNCE made adequate and suffic ient findings on all pertinent issues of fact and
law which, pursuant to Article XIX of the GATT 1994 and the Agreement on Safeguards, must be
investigated, analysed, established, found and verified, as provided in the final part of Article 3.1 of
the Agreement.
336
4.139  Argentina  explains that, for example, the CNCE began by addressing the issue of the like or
directly competitive product.337  With equal care, it analysed the domestic industry338, the evolution of
imports339 and the conditions under which the imports occurred.340  As regards the situation of the
                                                     
333 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 63 to 68.
334 In footnote 55 of its first written submission, Chile explained that, although it was able to view the
file of the investigation (CNCE No. 94/00) containing Record No. 781 and its Annex as well as the technical
report and its Annex, and was able to obtain photocopies thereof, Argentina did not publish a report setting forthits findings and reasoned conclusions - i.e. conclusions  explained in a reasoned and adequate manner - reached
on all pertinent issues of fact and law, and therefor e violated the obligation imposed by the last sentence of
Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  Notwithstanding, for the purposes of this claim, Chile takes that
file to be the report "published" by the competent authorities.
335 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.109.
336 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 133 to 136.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 81 to 84.
337 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 2, 3 and 4, and corresponding analysis in
the technical report.
338 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 4 and 5, and corresponding analysis in the
technical report.
339 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 6 and 7, and corresponding analysis in the
technical report.WT/DS238/R
Page 46
industry and serious injury, the CNCE reached its conclusion on threat of serious injury to the
domestic industry on the basis of an evaluation of each and every one of the factors listed in
Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards as well as all of the other relevant factors of an
objective and quantifiable nature having a bearing on the situation of that industry.341  Similarly, the
CNCE evaluated the causal link between the increased imports and the serious injury or threat ofserious injury to the domestic industry.
342  Thus, Argentina submits, the report published by the
competent authorities, i.e. Record No. 781 of the CNCE and the technical report, clearly reveals that
the investigating authority examined all of th e pertinent information, including the conclusions
reached on increased imports under such conditions, the like product, the domestic industry, the
analysis of factors, threat of serious injury, causal link and unforeseen developments. 343
4.140  Argentina notes that Chile appears to disregard the verifications conducted during the
proceedings of which, as an interested party in the investigation, it took cognizance at the appropriateprocedural stage without the slightest comment.  Indeed, Argentina argues, it is untrue that "the
CNCE based its conclusions on information supplied by part of the domestic industry without
investigating or verifying … ".  Argentina stresses  that Chile's involvement in the procedure was in
fact very limited.  It further adds that both the Record and the technical report contain explanations of
the methodologies used by the CNCE.
 344
4.141  In response to question No. 1 of the Panel345, Chile submits that for a Member to comply with
the obligation imposed by the final part of Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, it is not
enough for the report merely to mention the determinations reached by the competent authority.  In
Chile's view, it must also explicitly establish, th rough a reasoned and adequate explanation, how the
facts investigated support each one of those determinations.  Otherwise, Chile argues, the Agreementon Safeguards would not require the findings to be accompanied by "reasoned conclusions".
Moreover, a Member must set forth its findings and reasoned conclusions reached on all pertinent
issues of fact and law which, according to Article XIX:1(a) and the Agreement on Safeguards, must
be considered, evaluated and demonstrated before that Member has the right to apply a safeguard
measure, and must explain why it did not evaluate the factors it failed to consider or analyse.  Chileconsiders that, for the purposes of requesting a finding of inconsistency of the Argentine measure with
Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, it was enough to submit a claim based exclusively on that
Article since it has a principal and general status with respect to Article 4.2(c).
4.142  As regards the documents constituting the "report" that the competent authorities must publish
for the purposes of Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, Chile  contends that whatever the
documents the said authorities decide to publish, the fact is that they must, one way or another, set
forth all of the findings and "reasoned conclusions"  reached on "all pertinent issues"  of fact and law.
Chile also responds that, on the basis of what appears in the Annex to Record No.781, which is the
part in which the CNCE directors record their anal ysis of the facts investigated and present their
findings, it is clear that the investigating authority did not comply with the final part of Article 3.1 of
the Agreement on Safeguards, since it does not set forth all of its findings and "reasoned conclusions"
                                                                                                                                                                    
340 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 9 and 10, and corresponding analysis in the
technical report.
341 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 7 and 8, and corresponding analysis in the
technical report.
342 Argentina refers to the Annex to Record No. 781, pages 10 and 11, and corresponding analysis in
the technical report.
343 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 137 to 138. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 85 to 86.
344 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 140 to 141. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 88 to 89.
345 Namely, "  Which documents constitute the report that the competent authoritie s must publish for the
purposes of Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, and the detailed analysis that they must publish for thepurposes of Article 4.2(c) of the Agreement on Safeguards?  Is there any relevant legislative provision? ".WT/DS238/R
Page 47
reached on "all pertinent issues"  of fact and law.  It further contends that, although theoretically, the
investigating authority is only supposed to investigate and record facts, while a decision-making
authority is supposed to evaluate those facts and make conclusions and findings, in the case at issue,
the technical report contains a series of determinations which presuppose a prior analysis of the facts
investigated.  Chile indicates that it has undertaken to point out these determinations and to show that
they are not supported or substantiated by any reasoned and adequate explanation.346
4.143  In response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel347, Argentina  explains that the publication
requirement of Article 3 of the Agreement on Safeguards starts with the initiation of the investigation,
when the initiation itself is made public through notification in the Official Bulletin of the Republic of
Argentina of the corresponding administrative ac t of the competent implementing authority
introduced by a resolution, in this particular case Resolution ME No. 39 of 12 January 2001,
published in the Official Bulletin of 18 January 2001.  Consequently, Argentina argues, regardless ofthe specific communications by the authorities to th ose that may be interested in the investigation,
such as the producers, importers, exporters, etc., the actual publication in the Official Bulletin
constitutes an act which is in itself considered to be of general public knowledge in accordance with
explicit provisions under Argentine law.  Thus, any natural or legal persons who consider that they
have a legitimate interest in the investigation may invoke that interest and appear during theinvestigation with a view to defending such rights as they consider to be theirs.  Similarly, Law
No. 19,549 (Law on Administrative Procedure of the Republic of Argentina) which, together with
Regulatory Decree No. 1059/96, regulates the treatment of applications for safeguard measures,
stipulates that interested parties shall have access to all information contained in the file, except such
information as may be treated as "confidential", and all parties shall also be supplied information bythe implementing authority when the hearings provided for under the same legislation take place.
 348
4.144  Argentina  explains that, once the investigation has been completed, also in strict compliance
with Article 3, the competent implementing authority issues a resolution, which is published in the
Official Bulletin, thereby providing public notice of the decision adopted as a result of the
investigation.  This resolution, which in the case at issue is Ministry of the EconomyResolution No. 348/2001 of 6 August 2001, published in the Official Bulletin of 7 August,
considering the different reports or determinations issued by the competent authorities in accordance
with the prerogatives granted by the legislation in question, introduces the administrative act
containing a summary of the results of the injury investigation conducted and the reasons which led to
the decision to adopt a safeguard measure, as well as the modalities of its adoption.
 349
4.145  Argentina  explains that Record No. 781, with its Annex, constitutes a single instrument, and
is the injury determination of the implementing authority – the CNCE – which is based on thetechnical report.  The technical report, as its name suggests, contains all of the objective data and
information gathered during the investigation.  The CNCE, when it adopts its decision, takes account
both of the file of the investigation, made up, in this case, of 2,999 pages, and the technical report, and
hence these two documents are integrated.
350  Record No. 781 and its Annex, made up of five parts,
constitute the CNCE's determination, added to which, there is the technical report with the scope
                                                     
346 See Chile’s response to question No. 1 of the Panel.  See footnote 345 of the present report.
347 For question No. 1, see footnote 345 of the present report.  Question No. 2, " How was the
investigation carried out by the competent authority?  Which documents comprise the file of the competentauthority? " and question No. 3, " Can factual information in the techni cal report and its Annexes, which does
not appear in Acta 781 or the Annexed 15 page Expedi ente, constitute a finding or reasoned conclusion for the
purposes of Article 3 of the Agreement on Safeguards?  If so, how? ".
348 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel.  See also Argentina's second oral
statement, paragraphs 69 to 72.
349 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel.  See also Argentina's second oral
statement, paragraph 73.
350 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraph 74.WT/DS238/R
Page 48
described above, plus the 12 sets of documentation and three annexes making up the 2,999 pages
covering the proceedings pertaining to the case. 351
4.146  Chile  argues that if one examines what it has called the "file of the investigation", particularly
Record No. 781 and its Annex, which contain the recommendations, conclusions and findings of the
CNCE Board members, one finds that the said decision-making authority fails to establish explicitly,through reasoned and adequate explanations, how the facts investigated support each and every one of
its determinations.  Similarly, one finds that the said authority failed to set forth its findings and
reasoned conclusions reached on all issues of fact and law which, according to Article XIX:1(a) and
the SA, must be evaluated and demonstrated before the Member in question has the right to apply a
safeguard measure.
352
4.147  Furthermore, Chile  argues that Argentina, both in its first written submission and its first oral
submission, states that the report of the competent authorities to which the final part of Article 3.1refers consists of Record No. 781 of the CNCE and the ITDF.  Chile notes that notwithstanding these
statements Argentina states in its rebuttal submission that the report of the competent authorities to
which Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards refers is not the said file, but Ministry of the
Economy Resolution No. 348/2001.  For Chile, the Panel need only skim through Resolution
No. 348/2001 to see that it violates the obligations laid down in the final part of Article 3.1 even moreseriously than the "file of the investigation".  Ac cording to Chile, the content of that Resolution is
even more deficient than the content and tenor of the "file of the investigation", particularly Record
No. 781 and its Annex.  Chile argues that, with respect to those two documents, throughout these
proceedings Chile has produced sufficient arguments and evidence, unrefuted by Argentina, to show a
clear violation of Article 3.1 owing to:  (i) the failure to explain, in a reasoned and adequate manner,how the facts investigated support each one of th e determinations (explicit justification of the
determinations);  and (ii) failure to set forth the findings and reasoned conclusions reached on all
issues of fact and law which, according to Article XIX:1(a) and the Agreement on Safeguards must be
considered, evaluated and demonstrated before a Member has the right to apply a safeguard
measure.
353  In this regard, Chile insists that its claim has nothing to do with whether or not the
Argentine competent authorities published a report in conformity with the obligations laid down in
Article 3.1.  For Chile, the basis for its claim is the fact that the content of the said report does not
comply with the requirements of the final part of that Article. 354
7. Notification.  Article 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards
4.148  Chile submits that if one follows the precedent established in the Appellate Body report in
Korea – Dairy , Argentina's notifications violate the seco nd paragraph of Article 12 of the Agreement
on Safeguards because they fail to provide evidence substantiating the finding of an alleged threat ofserious injury caused by alleged increased imports, and they do not provide all of the pertinent
information.
355  In response to question No. 59 of the Panel356, Chile confirmed that Chile considers
that the notification must refer to all factors listed, at a minimum, in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement
on Safeguards.
                                                     
351 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel.  See also Argentina's second oral
statement, paragraph 75.
352 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 65.
353 See Chile's second oral statement, paragraphs 6 to 9.
354 See Chile's second oral statement, paragraph 10.
355 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.116.
356 Namely, " In paragraph 4.114 of its first written subm ission, Chile claims that Argentina's
notifications did not include three particular factors.  Do the parties believe that the notification must refer toall factors listed in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards?  Does document G/SG/N/8/ARG/4, section 1,fifth bullet, refer to employment and productivity?  Does it make any referen ce to capacity utilization? ".WT/DS238/R
Page 49
4.149  Argentina  submits that its notifications to the Committee on Safeguards under Article 12.1(b)
and 12.1(c) of the Agreement on Safeguards were made in conformity with Article 12.2 and Appellate
Body precedent.  It argues that the Argentine not ification provided "all pertinent information" under
Article 12.2, including evidence of threat of serious injury caused by increased imports as well as a
precise description of the product involved, with an adequate definition of the like product and thedomestic industry, and an analysis of the factors.
357
4.150  Chile contends that, from its notifications to the Committee on Safeguards358, it would appear
that Argentina merely provided an excerpt from the Annex to the Record containing the remarks of
the CNCE directors that voted in favour of impos ing the measure.  The notifications also included
Resolution No. 348/2001 of the Argentine Ministry of the Economy closing the investigation and
imposing the safeguard.  However, Chile argues, the notifications were not accompanied by any
material evidence substantiating the cited remarks or the findings referred to in that Resolution; nor dothese notifications contain all of the information pertinent to a determination of threat of injury.  Chile
specifies that the notifications do not make any reference to all of the relevant factors which,
according to Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards must be evaluated, at a minimum, by the
competent authorities.  According to  Chile, the only factors indicated in the notifications, but without
any material evidence substantiating them, are "the rate and amount of the increase in imports of theproduct concerned in absolute and relative terms", "the share of the domestic market taken by
increased imports", "changes in the level of sales" and "profits and losses".
359
4.151  Argentina responds that in its notifications to the Committee on Safeguards, by "merely
provid[ing] an excerpt from the Annex to the Record  containing the remarks of the directors of the
CNCE that voted in favour of imposing the measure" as claimed by Chile, it acted in conformity withArticle 12.2.
360 361 In Argentina's view if, when it comes to establishing the conformity of the process
by which it is decided to apply a safeguard measure, it is not necessary for the required evaluation to
be identical to the evaluation conducted by the national authority in assessing and applying Articles 2
and 4 of the Agreement, this threshold or congruity is even less applicable in cases of the kind
covered by Article 12, in which a determination of injury or a threat thereof is not even involved.Argentina explains that the notification requiremen t in Article 12 is the first step in a process of
transparency that can continue with a review by the Committee on Safeguards and eventual bilateral
consultations with other Members that may have been affected.
362  Argentina submits that, in
conformity with Article 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards, the Argentine notification includes, in
addition to the evidence of serious injury or threat thereof caused by increased imports, a precise
description of the product involved and the proposed measure, the proposed date of introduction, the
expected duration and the timetable for progressive liberalization.363  In response to question No. 59
                                                     
357 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 144 and 145.  See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 92.
358 In footnote 56 to its first written submission, Chile refers to Documents G/SG/N/8/ARG/4,
G/SG/N/10/ARG/3, G/SG/N/11/ARG/3, G/SG/N/8/ARG/Corr.1, G/SG/N/10/ARG/2/Corr.1,G/SG/N/11/ARG/2/Corr.1, G/SG/N/8/ARG/4/Suppl.1, and G/SG/N/10/ARG/3/Suppl.1.  In response to questionNo. 24 of the Panel (" Can Chile confirm the document references for the notifications by Argentina to the WTO
Safeguard Committee that it challenges? "), Chile points out a mistake in the listing of documents since the
corrigendum identified as G/SG/N/8/ARG/Corr.1, G/SG/N/10/ARG/2/Corr.1, G/SG/N/11/ARG/2/Corr.1 in its
first written submission does not refer to the measure challenged in this dispute.
359 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.111 to 4.114.
360 Argentina refers to the interpretation of this obligation in the Appellate Body Report, Korea –
Dairy .
361 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 145 to 149. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 93 to 97.
362 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 150 to 152. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 98 to 100.
363 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 158. See also Argentina's first oral statement,
paragraph 106.WT/DS238/R
Page 50
of the Panel364, Argentina indicates that it considers that the notification must refer to the injury
factors set forth in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards.  However, Argentina adds, this
minimum requirement does not imply that the evidence of threat of serious injury must include all of
the details of the recommendation and the reasoning applied and set forth in the competent authority's
report.  According to Argentina, the Argentine notification includes precise data on employment,productivity and capacity utilization.
4.152  Regarding Chile's claims to the effect that th e Argentine notifications did not contain all of
the pertinent information and that the factors indicated in the notifications were not supported by any
material evidence
365, Argentina  infers from all of the statements of the various panels and of the
Appellate Body that it was only required to refe r to the items expressly mentioned in Article 12, and
in relation to the item concerning "evidence of injury or threat of injury", to confirm in its notification
that in determining injury or thre at of injury, the national authority had evaluated all of the factors
mentioned in Article 4.2(a).  In this connection, Argentina claims that it is possible to show that
Argentina not only made the notifications as required, but even went beyond what was required by
reporting on the appraisal of the factors other than increased imports referred to in Article 4.2(b).  In
Argentina's view, one needs only to refer to  document G/SG/N/8/ARG/4, G/SG/N/10/ARG/3,
G/SG/N/11/ARG/3 of 23 July 2001, which contains a specific section on "Evidence of serious injury
or threat thereof caused by increased imports".  In accordance with paragraph 4.113 of Chile's
submission366, that section of the Argentine notification under Article 12.1(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards provides data concerning the rate and amount of the increase in imports of the product
concerned in absolute and relative terms, the share of the domestic market taken by increased imports,
changes in the levels of sales, and profits and losses.  Likewise, and contrary to what Chile states inparagraph 4.114 of its submission
367, the Argentine notification also includes precise data on
productivity, capacity utilization and employment.368
4.153  At the same time, and contrary to what Chile claims369, Argentina  contends that the
following section, entitled "Information on whether there is an absolute increase in imports or an
increase in imports relative to domestic production (see also Article 12.1 for the context)", presents indetail, with the support of precise data and figures, the analysis conducted by the competent Argentine
authorities of the evolution of imports substantiating the finding of threat of serious injury, and
provides all of the pertinent information to that end.
370
4.154  Chile replies that the best evidence that Argentina failed to comply with its obligations under
Article 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards can be found in the merits of the actual notifications
made to the Committee on Safeguards.  In Chile's view, the inconsistency of the Argentine measure
with that provision emerges from the Argentine defence itself.  Chile observes where the Panel asksArgentina where the explicit references to each injury  factor in the notifications are, Argentina merely
states that they can be found in "Part I (Evidence of serious injury or threat thereof caused by
increased imports) of document G/SG/N/8/ARG/ 4, G/SG/N/10/ARG/3 and G/SG/N/11/ARG/3 of 23
July 2001.
371  However, Chile argues, Argentina does not substantiate its statement in any way, nor
                                                     
364 See footnote 356 to the present report.
365 Argentina refers to paragraphs 4.112 and 4.113 of Chile’s first written submission.  See
paragraph 4.150 of the present report.
366 See paragraph 4.150 of the present report.
367 See paragraph 4.150 of the present report.
368 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 153 to 156. See also Argentina's first oral
statement, paragraphs 101 to 104.
369 Argentina refers to paragraph 4.116 of its Chile's first written submission.  See paragraph 4.148 of
the present report.
370 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 157.  See also Argentina's first oral statement,
paragraph 105.
371 Chile refers to Argentina's response to question No. 25 of the Panel (" Where are there explicit
references to each injury factor in the notifications? ").WT/DS238/R
Page 51
does it identify the serious injury factors allegedly re ferred to in Part I.  Chile further indicates that
Argentina's response to Chile's argument that it should have provided, together with its notification or
in its notification, evidence to substantiate a finding of serious injury or threat thereof, was that this
was not an obligation.  However, Chile adds, it is according to Argentina itself that "the Argentine
notification provided … evidence of threat of serious injury caused by increased imports … ".372 373
V. ARGUMENTS OF THE THIRD PARTIES
5.1 From the third parties in these proceedings, i.e. the European Communities, Paraguay and the
United States, only the European Communities and the United States filed their comments within the
20 June 2002 deadline and presented Oral Statements during the third party session.
A. EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
1. Standard of review and record of investigation
5.2 The European Communities recalls that domestic authorities are under a duty to evaluate all
facts before them or that should have been before them in accordance with the WTO safeguards
regime.374  The European Communities submits that this broad obligation of the domestic authorities
is paralleled by the review that panels are called upon to exercise with respect to safeguard
measures.375 376 The European Communities considers that parties to a panel proceeding are neither
bound by nor limited to the arguments (whether factual or legal) that they may have developed beforethe competent authorities during domestic proceedings (nor a fortiori  are such parties foreclosed from
bringing arguments if they failed to do so before domestic authorities)
377, the only limit being
evidence that was not in existence at the tim e the domestic authorities made their decision.378 379  The
European Communities explains that this logically flows from the fact that the respective focus and
objectives of the domestic and the panel proceedings may be different and from the fact that thepanels' mandate under Article 11 of the DSU is independent of that of domestic authorities.
Accordingly, in the European Communities' view, the Panel is not limited in its review by the "record
of investigation".
380
2. Unforeseen developments
5.3 In the European Communities' view, the safeguard mechanism is an "extraordinary
remedy"381 that should only be relied upon in emergency  situations, as indicated by the title of
Article XIX of the GATT 1994.  It should only be invoked when all the strict requirements which are
                                                     
372 Chile refers to paragraphs 92 and 101 of Argentina's first oral statement.  See paragraphs 4.151 and
4.152 of the present report.
373 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraphs 67 to 70.
374 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 2 where it refers to the Panel Report, Korea –
Dairy , paragraphs 7.30 to 7.31 and 7.54.
375 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 2 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 114, referring to the Appellate Body Report, US – Wheat Gluten ; and Appellate
Body Report, US - Cotton Yarn , paragraph 73.
376 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 2.
377 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 4 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb,  paragraph 113.
378 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 4 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Cotton Yarn , paragraph 77.
379 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 4.
380 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 6.
381 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 4 where it refers to the Appellate
Body Reports , Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 93; and Korea – Dairy , paragraph 86.WT/DS238/R
Page 52
set out in WTO law have been fulfilled, in particular because the reliance on the safeguard mechanism
interferes with the fair conduct of trade performed by competitive exporters.382
5.4 With regard to the meaning of the term "unforeseen developments", the European
Communities recalls the established interpretation of Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 that
"unforeseen developments" are " circumstances  which must be demonstrated as a matter of fact in
order for a safeguard measure to be applied consistently with the provisions of Article XIX of the
GATT 1994"383, and that "this demonstration must be made before the safeguard measure is applied"
and "must also feature in the same report of the competent authorities" in which the conditions for the
adoption of a measure are accounted for.  The European Communities states that thus, the competent
authorities' report must provide an explanation as to why certain changes in circumstances could be
regarded as "unforeseen developments".384
5.5 In view of the above, the European Communities contends that the safeguard measure taken
by Argentina does not include any "demonstration as a matter of fact" that certain circumstances
constituted "unforeseen developments" at the time the competent authorities made their decisions.
Furthermore, the European Communities submits that no element mentioned in Argentina’s
Resolution and technical report (or recalled in Argentina's first written submission) can indeed be
termed as an "unforeseen development" within  the meaning of Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.385
5.6 As regards Argentina's reference386 to an increase in imports of particular magnitude in the
most recent period investigated as an element relevant to fulfilling the "unforeseen development"
precondition, the European Communities considers that while a surge in imports may "result" from
"unforeseen developments", such increase cannot itself be an "unforeseen development" within the
meaning of Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994.387
5.7 The European Communities further points out that assuming arguendo  that an increase in
imports could be a relevant factor in deciding whether the "unforeseen developments" condition is
met, it would certainly not be so in the present case.388  In this regard, the European Communities
states that the Argentine authorities themselves acknowledge that prior to the import years considered,
imports had decreased dramatically as a result of the climatic conditions in the countries accountingfor the majority of the exports.
389  The European Communities argues that the return to normal climate
conditions and thus to normal production and international trade flows can only be a " foreseen " and
"expected " 390 development.391  Lastly, the European Communities declares that more generally, as
                                                     
382 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 4.
383 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 5 where it refers to the Appellate
Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 85; and Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 92, as confirmed in the
Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 71.
384 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 5 where it refers to Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraphs 72 and 73.
385 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 6.
386 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 38 to 39 and 43.
387 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 8.
388 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 9.
389 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 10 where it refers to the technical
report, page 32, 58 and to Chile’s first written submission, paragraph 4.13.
390 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 11 where it refers to the Appellate
Body Report, Korea – Dairy , paragraphs 83 to 86; Appellate Body Report, Argentina – Footwear (EC) ,
paragraphs 91 and 92.
391 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 11.WT/DS238/R
Page 53
acknowledged by the Argentine authorities, agricultural imports are in fact characterized by a cyclical
character, due to the inherent characteristics of agricultural production.392
5.8 As regards the other alleged unforeseen developments accounted for in the documents of the
Argentine competent authorities,  such as the production and market trends worldwide or in specific
parts of the foreign markets393, the European Communities argues that there is no account of why
these events were "unexpected" nor how they resu lted in the imports increase specifically on the
Argentine market during the reference period.394  The European Communities argues that the lack of
such analysis and demonstration of "unforeseen developments" is already sufficient to establish that
the safeguard measure under review is not consis tent with Argentina's WTO obligations, and thus
devoid of legal basis.395
3. Increase in imports
5.9 In fulfilling the requirement relating to "increased imports" set out in Article 2.1 of the
Agreement on Safeguards, the European Communities argues that three fundamental aspects must be
addressed by the competent domestic authorities, and thus reviewed by panels.  The first one is the
reference period to be used for analysing import tr ends; the second is the assessment of whether the
rate and amount of imports over the reference period were such as to fulfil Article 2.1 standards; and
the third one, is the provision of an overall adequate explanation, in the safeguard measure orunderlying report, of how the facts as a whole support a finding of "increased imports" within the
meaning of Article 2.1.
396  The European Communities considers that the Argentine authorities'
investigation and conclusions are wanting in all three respects.
5.10 As to the reference period, the European Commun ities recalls that the "data relating to the
most recent past will provide competent authorities with an essential, and, usually, the most reliable,basis".
397  The European Communities submits that the period for observing increased imports must
be the recent past398, so that imports must continue to increase or be very high in the latest period for a
measure to be taken in accordance with Article 2.1, and that WTO practice has focused on the last one
to three years (calendar years or 12-month periods) to be as close as possible, depending on data
availability, to the date of application of the measure.399
5.11 Furthermore, the European Communities notes that the increase in imports must be assessed
either in absolute or in relative terms, but in each  case both through an end-point-to-end-point analysis
and by examining the intervening trends between the end points of the reference period.400  T h e
European Communities argues that the Argentine authorities even failed to set out clearly what period
                                                     
392 See European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 12 where it refers to Record No. 781,
page13 in Exhibit CHL-1 of Chile's first written submission.  The European Communities claims that thisappears to be confirmed by Argentina’s import statistics for 1992-2000 (Jan.-Nov.) produced by Chile(Exhibit CHL-4).
393 The European Communities refers to Argentina’s first written submission, paragraph 39.
394 See, European Communities' third party submission, paragraph 13.
395 The European Communities refer to the Appellate Body Reports, US – Lamb , paragraph 72;
Argentina – Footwear (EC),  paragraph 98; and US – Wheat Gluten , paragraphs 181 ff.
396 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 10.
397 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 137.
398 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, Argentina – Footwear (EC) , footnote 130.
399 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Panel Reports,
Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraphs 8.160 to 8.162; US – Wheat Gluten , paragraphs 8.32 to 8.33; and US –
Line Pipe , paragraph 7.204.
400 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 13.WT/DS238/R
Page 54
they actually used for their assessment of the import trends, nor were they consistent in referring to
import data periods, as they should have been. 401 402
5.12 As to the legal standard set out in Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards, the European
Communities recalls the emphasis of the Appellate Body that such provision refers to products " being
imported … in such increased quantities and under such conditions".  The European Communitiestakes the view that the competent authorities must  show that a recent, sudden, sharp and significant
increase in imports, both quantitatively and qualitatively, continues until the very recent past.
403 404
5.13 The European Communities points out that the Argentine authorities themselves and the
Argentine import statistical data confirm that the increase in imports observed in the period
1999/2000 did not bring import levels back to those in the period (1996) preceding the exceptional
and disastrous climatic conditions in the main exporting country (1997).405  In this regard, the
European Communities argues that it fails to see how this increase may be qualified as "significant",or "sharp", quantitatively and qualitatively, or anyway "so as to cause or threaten to cause serious
injury to the domestic industry".
406
5.14 The European Communities considers that the most recent data should not be considered in
isolation from the data pertaining to the entire period of investigation, if that period was longer.  It
refers to the Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb  where it was stated that "[i]f the most recent data is
evaluated in isolation, the resulting picture of the domestic industry may be quite misleading".407  In
view of the European Communities, this caveat  was added expressly with a view to avoiding that a
temporary downturn that may well be a part of the normal cycle of the domestic industry be
misunderstood as a situation justifying safeguard action.408  The European Communities notes that it
has to be read in the light of the Appellate Body’s characterization of safeguard action as an"extraordinary remedy".
409  In the view of the European Communities, it should by no means be read
as a relaxation of the standards of the Agreement on Safeguards.410
5.15 With respect to the adequate and reasoned expl anation, notwithstanding the fact that there
may have been a "recent" import increase, the European Communities asserts that nowhere do the
Argentine authorities seem to explain why the fact that this increase simply restored historical importtrends after an exceptionally low period still allows to conclude that the increase was "sharp",
"significant" or "so as to cause or threaten serious injury", despite the Appellate Body's finding that
competent authorities should address the complexities of each case, and in particular respond to other
plausible explanation of data.
411
                                                     
401 For example, the EC refers to the statistics attached to the technical report that include import data
on volume from 1996 to 2000 in some parts, or from 1995 to 2000 in other parts. See technical report, Exhibit
CHL-1, graphic No. 15.1. and 15.2.
402 The European Communities refers to the technical report, Exhibit CHL-1, graphic No. 3.
403 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 17 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, Argentina – Footwear , paragraphs 130-131.
404 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 17.
405 The European Communities refers to the technical report, Exhibit CHL-1, page 57 and Table 15.1.
406 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 19.
407 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 19 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 137.
408 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 20 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 138.
409 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 20 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 93; and to the Appellate Body Report, Korea – Dairy ,
paragraph 86.
410 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 20.
411 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 22 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 106.WT/DS238/R
Page 55
4. Threat of serious injury
5.16 The European Communities contends that the domestic authorities' independent duty to
investigate casts doubts on the United States' suggestion that such authorities can simply consider
"current facts", coupled with no indication on the r ecord that such facts will change in the imminent
future - as valuable ex post  support for a finding of threat of serious injury.412  In its view, this would
not be a demonstration "on the basis of objective evidence," as required by Article 4.2(b) of the
Agreement on Safeguards, but an "allegation and conjecture" within the meaning of Article 4.1(b).413
5.17 According to the European Communities, the Appellate Body has clarified that the domestic
authorities have a duty to demonstrate, at the time they take a safeguard measure, and through a
reasoned and adequate explanation (that is, in their report or equivalent), that the legal conditions for
the adoption of such measure are met.  Additionally, it argues, in US – Lamb  the Appellate Body
pointed out that the materialization of the threat of serious injury must be imminent and highlylikely.
414  This imminence and likelihood must also be positively demonstrated by the domestic
authorities.  The European Communities argues that, in reviewing the competent authorities’ findings,
panels must be mindful of the definition of "threat of serious injury" in the Agreement on Safeguards
and of the very high standard implied by the relevant terms.415  416
5. Permissible extent of application of the measure
5.18 With regard to Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards,  the European Communities takes
the view that, if a WTO Member fails to comply  with the "non-attribution" obligation set out in
Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards, there is a presumption that it has also failed to comply
with its obligation under Article 5.1 not to apply a measure beyond the permissible extent.  The
European Communities recalls the finding of the Appellate Body in US – Line Pipe417 where it
concluded that, by establishing that the respondent had violated Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards, the claimant had made a  prima facie  case that the application of the measure at issue was
not limited to the extent permissible under Article 5.1.418
B. UNITED STATES
1. Unforeseen developments
5.19 The United States submits that Article XIX of the GATT 1994 does not require a competent
authority to demonstrate a "cause-effect" relationship between unforeseen developments and
increased imports.  Following what the Panel found in US – Lamb , the United States contends that
there is no textual basis in Article XIX for a "two-step causation approach" that would require a
Member to demonstrate that unforeseen developments caused an increase in imports that in turn
caused serious injury or threat. 419420
                                                     
412  The European Communities refers to paragraph 16 of the United States' third party submission.  See
paragraph 5.26 of the present report.
413 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 7.
414 The European Communities refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 125.
415 The European Communities refers to the Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 126.
416 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 8.
417 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 23 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Line Pipe , WT/DS202/AB/R, 15 February 2002, paragraph 261.
418 See European Communities' oral statement, paragraph 23.
419 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 4 where it refers to the Panel Report, US – Lamb ,
paragraph 7.16.
420 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 4.WT/DS238/R
Page 56
5.20 The United States considers that rather, as the US – Lamb  Panel stated, the term "unforeseen
developments" in Article XIX is grammatically li nked to both the terms, "in such increased
quantities" and "under such conditions".421  Therefore, in view of the United States, unforeseen
developments can result in increased imports, or in a change in the "conditions" that apply to such
imports, or both.  Indeed, as the phrasing of Article XIX suggests, there may be an interplay betweenthe conditions under which increased imports affect a domestic industry and the quantity of the
increase that will cause serious injury.
422
5.21 Thus, the United States concludes that Article XIX does not require a competent authority to
demonstrate that unforeseen developments "caused" an increase in imports.  Rather, the United States
considers that it may be enough for the authority simply to demonstrate that unforeseen developments
have resulted in increased imports entering "under such conditions" so as to cause serious injury or
threat thereof.423
2. Increase in imports
5.22 The United States submits that a contracting party should generally examine relevant data
from its entire standard review period to provide objectivity in its analyses of import volume.  The
United States contends that the Agreement on Safeguards does not establish any particular
methodology or analytic framework for evaluating  increased imports.  It takes the view that
Article 2.1 merely states that a competent authority must determine "pursuant to" the other provisions
of the Agreement on Safeguards that imports are taking place "in such increased quantities, absolute
or relative to domestic production . . . as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic
industry".  The United States adds that Article 4.2(a),  in turn, simply states that competent authorities
shall evaluate all relevant factors of an "objective and quantifiable nature" having a bearing on thesituation of the industry, including "the rate and amount of increase in imports of the product
concerned in absolute and relative terms".
424
5.23 However, the United States recalls the Appellate Body Report on US – Lamb , where it was
stated that a competent authority "should not consider [the most recent] data in isolation from the data
pertaining to the entire period of investigation", and that "in conducting their evaluation underArticle 4.2(a), competent authorities cannot rely ex clusively on data from the most recent past, but
must assess that data in the context of the data for the entire investigative period".
425  Thus, the United
States concludes that these statements support the conclusion that a competent authority should
generally examine all of the data that it has collected for the entire  investigative period, provided that
the data is reliable and useable and that there are no circumstances indicating that examination of a
different time-period would be appropriate.426
5.24 The United States submits that the Panel should decline to consider extra-record evidence that
was not before the competent authority. In challenging Argentina’s analysis of increased imports, the
United States notes that Chile cites tables containing data on apparent consumption of preserved
peaches for the years 1994 to 1996 drawn from a study that CNCE prepared in 1998, apparently for a
different investigation.427
                                                     
421 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 5 where it refers to the Panel Report, US – Lamb ,
paragraph 7.16.
422 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 6.
423 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 7.
424 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 3.
425 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 4 where it refers to the Appellate Body Report,
US – Lamb , paragraph 138.
426 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 4.
427 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 6.WT/DS238/R
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5.25 The United States argues that if the study was not part of the record in the challenged
investigation, the Panel should disregard it.  The United States considers that a fundamental aspect of
the standard of review of competent authorities' dete rminations in safeguard investigations is that the
review of those determinations be based on the reco rd that was before the competent authorities, and
not on extra-record evidence.  The United States recalls the Panel decision in US – Wheat Gluten,
where it was concluded that "it is for the USITC to  determine how to collect and evaluate data and
how to assess and weigh the relevant factors in making determinations of serious injury and
causation."  That Panel stressed that "[i]t is not our role to collect new data, or to consider evidence
which could have been presented to the USITC by interested parties in the investigation, but was
not."428 The United States also recalls the conclusion of the Panel in US – Hot-Rolled Steel  concerning
extra-record information based on its analysis of Article 11 of the DSU.  The United States submits
that if a panel considers new information that was not before the competent authority, it would beweighing these new facts against the evidence already on the record.  The United States submits that
the Appellate Body has found that panels are not entitled to conduct such de novo  reviews.
429
3. Threat of serious injury
5.26 The United States submits that current facts may support threat of serious injury
determinations.  The United States notes that Chile argues that the CNCE impermissibly based itsfinding of threat of serious injury on the fact that there were no indications that current international
market conditions would change in the imminent fu ture, and that the CNCE's threat analysis was
based on conjecture or remote possibility and not on facts.
430  The United States recalls the Appellate
Body has analysed threat of serious injury as encompassing a lower threshold than serious injury and
has found that there is often "a continuous progression of injurious effects eventually rising andculminating in what can be determined to be 's erious injury'," since "[s]erious injury does not
generally occur suddenly."
431  The United States points out that the Appellate Body concluded that, in
drafting the Agreement on Safeguards, Members defined threat of serious injury separately from
serious injury so that an importing Member could act sooner to take preventive action when increased
imports posed a threat of serious injury.432 433  The United States submits that nothing in the
Agreement on Safeguards prohibits a competent authority from basing a threat of serious injury
determination on current facts which, if continued, will result in serious injury, coupled with a finding
that nothing in the record indicates that such  facts will change in the imminent future.434
5.27 The United States is of the view that there is no basis for "presuming" a breach of Article 5.1.
The United States disagrees with Chile's argument that a Member that establishes an inconsistency
with Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards also establishes a presumption of inconsistency
with Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  In the view of the United States, there is noreference to such a presumption in Article 4.2(b) or Article 5.1, and there is no basis for reading one
into the text.
435  The United States points out that the Appellate Body has made it clear on numerous
occasions that the rights and obligations of WTO Members are to be found in the actual text of the
WTO Agreement, and not in layers of inte rpretation that are read into that text.436 437  In the United
                                                     
428 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 7 where it refers to Panel Report on US –Wheat
Gluten , paragraph 8.6.
429 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 7.
430 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 14.
431 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 15 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Line Pipe , paragraphs 168 and 169.
432 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 15 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Line Pipe, paragraph 169.
433 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 15.
434 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 16.
435 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 17.
436 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 18 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, India – Patents (US) , paragraph 45 (stating that principles of interpretation "neither require nor condoneWT/DS238/R
Page 58
States' view, the Appellate Body's guidance is particularly apt in this case, because other provisions of
the WTO Agreements do contain provisions that establish presumptions.438  According to the United
States, these excerpts demonstrate that when the WTO drafters intended to create presumptions in the
agreements, they did so explicitly.439
5.28 The United States observes that Chile's challenge to the extent of application of the measure
in its first written submission is limited to just two paragraphs.  The United States notes that Chile
asserts that the measure imposed an extra 70 percent on the customs duties applicable to Chilean
imports, and then asserts that the duty amounted to an import prohibition.440
5.29 The United States questions whether Chile’s arguments are sufficient to meet its initial burden
of making a prima facie  case.  For example, the United States contends that merely noting that
imports stopped after the safeguard measure was imposed does not necessarily prove that the
safeguard measure was responsible.441  In the view of the United States, Chile's arguments fail to
address the central issue, which is whether a prohibitive tariff (assuming the tariff was prohibitive)
went beyond what was necessary under the facts of this particular case.  The United States further
adds that depending on the facts underlying a particular safeguard action, it is possible that such an
approach would be appropriate.  The United States  argues that Chile has not addressed this issue.442
5.30 With regard to increased imports and serious injury or threat, the United States refers to
Chile's first written submission where it stated that there can be no threat of serious injury if there is
no increase in imports.443  The United States considers that under Article 2.1 of the Agreement on
Safeguards, a Member may apply a safeguard measure only if increased imports are causing or
threatening to cause serious injury to a domestic industry.  Thus, the United States concludes that
there must be a causal link between increased imports on the one hand, and serious injury or threat onthe other, before a Member would be justified in applying a safeguard measure; and that both
conditions must be present.
444
5.31 However, the United States argues it does not mean, that there must be increased imports for
there to be serious injury or threat.  As a factual matter, the United States finds it is possible for an
industry to encounter serious injury or a threat of serious injury even in the absence of increasedimports.  It adds that the latter is not a necessary component of the former.
445  Finally, the United
States concludes that a Member would not, however, be justified in applying a safeguard measure in
such a case.446
4. Causal link
5.32 The United States takes the view that the Agreement on Safeguards does not mandate a three-
stage approach to non-attribution. It notes that Chile argues that "[f]or an analysis of causal link to be
consistent with Articles 2 and 4.2(b) of the [Agreement], the methodology adopted by theinvestigating authorities must consist of a three- stage approach that complies with the so-called
                                                                                                                                                                    
the imputation into a treaty of words that are not there or  the importation into a treaty of concepts that were not
intended.").
437 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 18.
438 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 19.
439 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 20.
440 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 21.
441 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 22.
442 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 23.
443 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 8.
444 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 9.
445 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 10.
446 See United States' oral statement, paragraph 11.WT/DS238/R
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principle of non-attribution of injurious effects of other factors."447  According to the United States,
the Appellate Body stated that the three steps de scribe "a logical process for complying with the
obligations relating to causation" in Article 4.2(b), not legal "tests" mandated by Agreement on
Safeguards. The United States further notes that the Appellate Body stated that it was not imperative
that each step "be the subject of a separate finding or a reasoned conclusion by the competentauthorities."
448 The United States recalls that the Appellate Body has also noted that the Agreement on
Safeguards does not specify any particular method for separating the effects of increased imports and
the effects of other causal factors.449
5.33 The United States contends that the Agreement on Safeguards does not require competent
authorities to demonstrate that imports alone caused a degree of injury that is "serious".  The United
States notes that Chile argues that Argentina failed to demonstrate that the threat of injury from
increased imports alone reached the threshold of "serious" injury.  In the United States' opinion,Article 4.2(b) does not require a competent authority to demonstrate that imports, standing alone,
caused serious injury.
450
5.34 In this regard, the United States recalls US – Wheat Gluten , where the Appellate Body made
clear that increased imports need not be the sole cause of the injury.451  The United States explains
that similarly, in US – Lamb , the Appellate Body stated that the Agreement on Safeguards "does not
require that increased imports be 'sufficient' to cau se, or threaten to cause, serious injury.  Nor does
the Agreement require that increased imports 'alone' be capable of causing, or threatening to cause,
serious injury."452  Finally, the United States notes that in US – Line Pipe, the Appellate Body
explained that "to meet the causation requirement in Article 4.2(b), it is not necessary to show the
increased imports alone – on their own – must be capable of causing serious injury".453 454
VI. INTERIM REVIEW
6.1 The Panel issued the draft descriptive (factual and argument) sections of its report to the
parties on 24 October 2002 in accordance with Article 15.1 of the DSU.  Both parties offered written
comments on the draft descriptive sections on 7 November 2002.  The Panel noted all these comments
and amended the draft descriptive part where appropriate.  The Panel issued its interim report to theparties on 21 November 2002 in accordance with Article 15.2 of the DSU.  In a letter dated 28
November 2002, Argentina requested that the Panel review precise aspects of the interim report.
Chile did not have any comments on the interim report.  Neither of the parties requested an interim
review meeting. On 5 December 2002, Chile provided written comments on Argentina's comments on
the interim report, as permitted by the Panel's working procedures, in which it asked the Panel to
reject all Argentina's comments and not to modify its findings.  The Panel carefully reviewed the
arguments made, and addresses them below, in accordance with Article 15.3 of the DSU.
455
                                                     
447 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 8.
448 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 9.
449  Appellate Body Report, US – Lamb , paragraphs 178 and 181.
450 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 11.
451 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Wheat Gluten , paragraph 67.
452 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Lamb , paragraph 170.
453 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 12 where it refers to the Appellate Body
Report, US – Line Pipe , paragraph 209.
454 See United States' third party submission, paragraph 12.
455 Section VI of this Report entitled "Interim Review" therefore forms part of the findings of the final
panel report, in accordance with Article 15.3 of the DSU.WT/DS238/R
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6.2 Argentina commented on paragraphs 7.44 to 7.82 of the interim report456 and requested that
the Panel amend its finding regarding the increase in imports in paragraph 7.82.  Argentina argued
that the most significant analysis of the trend in imports should be the analysis covering the most
recent period.  It cited in support passages from Appellate Body reports which we quoted at
paragraphs 7.51, 7.62 and 7.64 of our report.  Chile replied that Argentina had not rebutted the Panel'sfindings in paragraphs 7.54, 7.55 and 7.64, and that the passage quoted at paragraph 7.62 of this report
had to be read in conjunction with the passage quoted at paragraph 7.64.  The Panel considers that it
has dealt sufficiently with Argentina's argument in paragraphs 7.52 to 7.54.  Moreover, the passage
quoted in paragraph 7.64 itself explains that the most recent data should not be considered in
isolation.  The Panel has explained in paragraphs 7.65 to 7.67 why it believes that the competent
authorities isolated the most recent data.
6.3 Argentina argued that the competent authorities could not have acted wrongly when they
found an increase in absolute terms and acknowledged the earlier decrease in imports and sensitivity
of the figures for the base year, as noted by the Panel in paragraphs 7.56, 7.58 and 7.61, given that the
investigating authority was empowered to evaluate all this information within its sphere of
competence.  Chile replied that it was insufficient to acknowledge facts without explaining them
adequately.  The Panel considers that it explained in paragraph 7.61 why it was insufficient for thecompetent authorities merely to acknowledge these facts.
6.4 Argentina and Chile applied their respective comments above to the analysis of imports in
relative terms.  The Panel considers that, to the exte nt that some of the referenced paragraphs in the
report apply to that analysis, the Panel's above discussion also applies to these comments.  For all of
the above reasons, the Panel declines to amend the paragraphs on which Argentina commented or itsfinding in paragraph 7.82.
6.5 Argentina commented on paragraphs 7.97 to 7.99 on evaluation of capacity utilization and
requested that the Panel amend its finding in paragraph 7.99.  Argentina argued that the Panel
established an artificial distinction between what is considered in an investigation and the concept of
evaluation under Article 4.2(a).  It argued that the investigation of installed capacity was sufficient toconstitute an evaluation as a formal matter, even if it was not specifically mentioned in the joint
opinion of the CNCE directors who voted in favour of the measure.  It argued that the outcome of the
investigation may have led the CNCE to give more or less weight to capacity utilization in its
evaluation of the situation of the domestic industry and that, in making an adverse finding, the Panel
was substituting itself for the CNCE.  Furthermore, the technical report was available to the CNCE
directors when they reached their decision regarding the situation of the industry.  Chile replied that
Article 4.2(a) requires that the competent authorities do more than conduct an investigation and recordthe results, but rather evaluate and analyze the results as well as provide a reasoned and adequate
explanation as to how they support their determin ation.  Chile said that there was no evaluation of
capacity utilization at all by the CNCE directors nor any explicit establishment of this factor so as to
support the determination of threat of serious injury.  Chile argued that Argentina had indicated in its
first written submission and its answer to a question posed by the Panel that the ones that shouldevaluate and analyse the information compiled in a technical report were not the investigating
authorities but the CNCE Directors, that is to say, the ones making the various determinations.
6.6 The Panel observes that in paragraph 7.4 of its report it noted Argentina's own explanation of
the technical report, which it had provided in response to questions 1 to 3 posed by the Panel.  That
explanation was that the "technical report contains all of the objective data and information gatheredduring the investigation".  The Panel noted in paragraph 7.5 that the competent authorities' operative
conclusion and the supporting reasoning appeared in the joint opinion.  For this reason, in accordance
with its approach set out in paragraph 7.6, the Pane l looked first at the joint opinion for evaluation of
all relevant factors, as supplemented by the data contained in the technical report.  The Panel noted in
                                                     
456 Paragraph numbers in the interim report were identical to those in this final report.WT/DS238/R
Page 61
paragraph 7.96 that the competent authorities have a duty under Article 4.2(a) to evaluate, at a
minimum, each of the factors listed in that paragraph, and in paragraph 7.93 it recalled the appropriate
standard of review.  The Panel explained in paragraph 7.98 that it saw nothing on the record that
showed that the competent authorities conducted an ev aluation of this factor as a formal matter.  The
Panel agrees with Argentina, in principle, that the outcome of the investigation may have led theCNCE to give more or less weight to capacity utilization in its evaluation of the situation of the
domestic industry.  However, in this case, the CNCE directors made no comment on the rate of
capacity utilization itself, not even to say that they considered it irrelevant.  The technical team made
no comment on its own account, but only reported what the applicant had said – which was not borne
out by the 2000 figure estimated by the technical team itself.  As a result, the Panel cannot glean any
idea as to what weight the competent authorities gave to the data which had been collected on
capacity utilization nor, in fact, whether they turned their minds to it at all.  If the Panel cannot be surethat the competent authorities even thought about the meaning of the data, it cannot find that there
was an evaluation of this factor.  If there was no evaluation, there is no need to continue and ask
whether the competent authorities evaluated the bearing of capacity utilization on the situation of the
domestic industry, nor whether the competent authorities provided a reasoned and adequate
explanation as to how the facts relating to capacity utilization supported their determination of a threatof serious injury.  Therefore, the Panel declines to amend its finding in paragraph 7.99.  However, the
Panel has added a footnote to paragraph 7.4 to show that the description of the contents of the
technical report was provided by Argentina.  The Panel does accept that its reference in paragraph
7.98, fourth sentence, to the investigation under Article 3.1 would be clearer if it were as specific as
the parts of the investigation which it describes in the preceding three sentences, and it has thereforeamended the fourth sentence of paragraph 7.98 accordingly.  The Panel has also corrected the tense of
the verb "refer" in paragraph 7.99 to be consistent with the rest of the section, and made a
grammatical change in paragraph 7.101.
6.7 Argentina commented on paragraphs 7.102 to 7.117 and requested that the Panel amend its
finding in paragraph 7.117 relating to a reasoned and adequate conclusion as to the existence of athreat of serious injury.  Argentina argued that the nature of the competent authorities' explanation
was not affected by any failure on their part to take into consideration the bad Greek harvest.  It
argued that, in making an adverse finding on this ground,  the Panel had assumed the function of the
investigating authority, since the latter was empowered to consider all the relevant data before it and
to take a decision on the basis of an evaluation of the information, within its sphere of competence.
Chile replied that neither it nor the Panel had disputed the powers of the CNCE but rather the question
had been whether the CNCE had exercised its powers in a manner consistent with Article 4.2(a).Chile argued that the Panel had properly applied the appropriate standard of review, which it quoted at
paragraph 7.103, and had not conducted a de novo examination of the evidence nor substituted its own
conclusions for those of the CNCE.
6.8 The Panel stated the appropriate standard of review in paragraph 7.103 which prohibits it
from substituting its own conclusions for those of the competent authorities but, at the same time,obliges it to examine critically the competent authorit ies' explanation, in depth, and in the light of the
facts before it.  The Panel explained throughout paragraphs 7.103 to 7.117 why it considered that the
competent authorities' explanation was not reasoned or adequate.  The Panel noted that an alternative
explanation was plausible, but never adopted that explanation, as it specifically noted in
paragraph 7.117.  The Panel therefore declines to amend the paragraphs on which Argentinacommented or its finding in paragraph 7.117.
6.9 Argentina commented on paragraphs 7.118 to 7.124 and requested that the Panel amend its
finding in paragraph 7.124 concerning the requirement that a threat of serious injury be "clearly
imminent".  Argentina concurred with the statement of the Appellate Body cited by the Panel in
paragraph 7.120 regarding what should be understood by the words "clearly imminent" in defining athreat of serious injury.  However, it recalled that, according to the same statement, a threat of serious
injury necessarily implies that serious injury has not yet occurred, that it is an event which willWT/DS238/R
Page 62
materialize in the future and that its materialization "cannot, in fact, be assured with certainty".
Argentina argued that the competent authorities sati sfied this test based on the capacity of imports to
cause serious injury, taking into account the specific characteristics of the threat.  Argentina argued
that the Panel did not properly take into account the competent authorities' findings regarding the
capacity of the imports in the final stage of the period of analysis.  Argentina argued that failure totake account of those circumstances would restrict the very notion of threat to such an extent that it
would become almost impossible in practice to ascertain the existence of such a threat.  Chile replied
that Argentina's reliance on the Appellate Body statement was partial and omitted essential elements
in the definition and concept of a threat of serious injury, which the Panel has quoted in
paragraph 7.120.
6.10 The Panel agrees with Argentina that a threat of serious injury cannot be assured with
certainty.  However, it has quoted in paragraph 7.120 considerations relevant to the requisite degree oflikelihood and imminence of serious injury, as a factual matter, in order for it to constitute a threat in
accordance with Article 4.1(b).  The Panel has explained in paragraphs 7.121 and 7.122 why it finds
that the competent authorities did not show that serious injury was likely or imminent as required as a
factual matter, and why it was insufficient to rely only on the behaviour of imports at the final stage of
the period of analysis.  The Panel has clarified the language in paragraph 7.122 slightly but, for thereasons given, declines to amend its finding in paragraph 7.124.
6.11 Argentina disagreed with the Panel's comment in paragraph 7.123 that a statement which
Argentina had quoted was at odds with the definition of threat of serious injury in Article 4.1(b).
Argentina argued that the statement which it had quoted did, in fact, refer to a threat of serious injury,
and it pointed out that this view was supported by the heading of the section of the report from whichthe quote was taken, and a reference in a footnote.  Chile replied that the Panel had not referred to the
whole section of that report but only to one statement which did not refer to a threat of serious injury.
The analysis in the rest of that section showed that the minimum requirement for a safeguard measure
was the existence of a threat that complied with the definition in Article 4.1(b), which Argentina had
failed to satisfy by not showing that serious injury to the domestic industry was clearly imminent.
6.12 The Panel accepts that the statement raised by Argentina which is quoted in paragraph 7.123
could refer to threat of serious injury, as defined, but only to the extent explained in the following
sentence of the report from which Argentina quoted, i.e. only to the extent that the serious injury is
clearly imminent.  This does not alter the Panel's dismissal of its relevance to this case.  If one were to
argue that the statement meant that serious injury which had not yet occurred constituted a threat of
serious injury even if it were not clearly imminent, that would be at odds with the definition in
Article 4.1(b).  If one were to argue that it somehow purported to lower the standard established bythe words "clearly imminent", this would be unsupported by the terms and context of that statement.
The Panel has therefore amended the second and third sentences of paragraph 7.123 without
modifying its dismissal of the argument, nor its finding in the following paragraph.  The Panel has
also made a grammatical change in paragraph 7.122.
VII. FINDINGS
A. P
RELIMINARY MATTERS
1. Measure at issue
7.1 The measure at issue in these proceedings is Resolution No. 348/2001 of the Argentine
Ministry of Economy, dated 6 August 2001, by which Argentina imposed a definitive safeguard
measure on imports of peaches, preserved in water containing added sweetening matter, includingsyrup, preserved in any other form or in water, coming under MCN tariff codes 2008.70.10 and
2008.70.90 ("preserved peaches"), in the form of minimum specific duties for three years effective asWT/DS238/R
Page 63
of 19 January 2001 (the "preserved peaches  measure").457  The minimum specific duty per kilogram
net was set at US$0.50 in the first year, US$0.45 in the second year and is US$0.40 in the third year.
The preserved peaches measure applies to imports from all countries, including Members of the
World Trade Organization (the "WTO"), other than MERCOSUR States Parties and South Africa.
2. Relevant documents
7.2 The preserved peaches measure recites the conclusion of the National Foreign Trade
Commission (the "CNCE") set out in Record No. 781 of 2 July 2001.  That Record of two pages
contains the minutes of a meeting of the Board of Directors of the CNCE which was convened to rule
on an application for a safeguard measure on preserved peaches.  It contains the conclusions of each
of the directors on whether the conditions justifying the application of a safeguard measure had been
met.  It shows that two directors, including the Ch airperson, concluded that they had been met, whilst
the other two directors concluded that they had not.  In the case of a tied vote, the Chairperson's voteis decisive and, accordingly, the conclusion of the Board of Directors was that the conditions
justifying the application of a safeguard measure had been met.  This was the conclusion forwarded to
the Ministry of Economy, which is recited in the preserved peaches measure.
7.3 The Annex to Record No. 781 sets out the written  opinions or votes of the CNCE directors.
There is a joint opinion by the two directors who vote d in favour of the measure (the "joint opinion")
and a separate opinion by each of the directors who voted against.  The joint opinion explains the
reasoning of the two directors who voted in favour and contains their conclusion, which became the
conclusion of the Board of Directors.
7.4 The directors had prior access to the investigation file and to the technical report prepared by
the technical team prior to the final determination (ITDF No. 08/01).  The technical report of 95 pagesplus three annexes including methodological notes and statistical tables (the "technical  report"), is
in turn attached to the Annex to Record No. 781.  The technical report contains all of the objective
data and information gathered during the investigation.
458
7.5 In order to examine this matter, the Panel must consider the competent authorities' findings
and reasoned conclusions on pertinent issues of fact and law, which must appear in a publishedreport.
459  Argentina argues that the report published in  the Annex to Record No. 781 and the technical
report contain the relevant findings and conclusions of fact and law.460  Chile does not agree that
Argentina "published" a report in accordance with Article 3.1 of the Safeguards Agreement but, for
the purposes of this case, it takes the file of the investigation to correspond to that published report.461
It is clear from the record that the operative conclusion – that the requirements justifying theapplication of the preserved peaches measure had been met – and the supporting reasoning, appear in
the joint opinion, which can be found in the Annex to Record No. 781.  All directors, including thosewho wrote the joint opinion, had prior access to the technical report and the file of the investigation.
Their opinions are based on the technical report.
7.6 Therefore, the Panel will assess the consistency of the preserved peaches measure and the
preceding investigation with Article XIX of GATT 1994 and the Agreement on Safeguards on the
basis, in the first instance, of the joint opinion in Annex to Record No. 781, as supplemented by theinformation in the technical report, to which we shall collectively refer as "the competent  authorities'
                                                     
457 Reproduced in full in Exhibit CHL-2.
458 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 1 to 3 of the Panel.
459 Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
460 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 139.
461 See Chile's first written submission, footnote 55.WT/DS238/R
Page 64
report".462  We also note that the file of the investigation was available to the directors when they
made their determination and can, in principle, be relevant to our assessment.463
3. Standard of review
7.7 The Panel's function, as established by Article 11 of the DSU, dictates the appropriate
standard of review by the Panel.  Article 11 requires the Panel to make an objective assessment of thematter before it, including an objective assessment of the facts of the case and the applicability of and
conformity with the relevant covered agreements.  The Panel's duty to make an objective assessment
of the facts prohibits it from engaging in a de novo  review of the preserved peaches investigation but
also from showing total deference to the findings of the Argentine authorities.
4. Burden of proof
7.8 The Panel will follow consistent practice in re lation to the burden of proof, according to
which the party who asserts a fact, or the affirmative of a particular claim or defence, whether thecomplainant or the respondent, bears the burden of proof of that fact, or the affirmative of that claim
or defence.  If that party adduces evidence sufficient to raise a presumption that what is asserted is
true, the burden then shifts to the other party, who will fail unless it adduces sufficient evidence to
rebut the presumption.
464
5. Order of the Panel's analysis
7.9 Chile makes seven principal claims.  It begins with the circumstance of unforeseen
developments and continues with the three conditions that make up the legal basis of a safeguard
measure, namely increase in imports, threat of serious injury and causation.  It makes other claims
under Articles 3, 5.1 and 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards as well.  This is an appropriate order
which both parties' submissions have basically followed.  The Panel will therefore analyse the claimsin this order.
B. C
LAIMS
1. Unforeseen developments
7.10 Chile claims that the preserved peaches measure is inconsistent with Article XIX:1(a) of
GATT 1994 and Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards because the competent authorities didnot make a prior finding nor demonstrate in their report, as a preliminary matter of fact, the existence
of unforeseen developments.
465  Argentina replies that the competent authorities' report did establish
and demonstrate the existence of unforeseen developments, in accordance with these obligations.466
7.11 We will begin by considering Article XIX:1(a), which  provides as follows:
"If, as a result of unforeseen developments and of the effect of the obligations
incurred by a contracting party under this Agreement, including tariff concessions,
any product is being imported into the territory of that contracting party in suchincreased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten serious injury
to domestic producers in that territory of like or directly competitive products, the
contracting party shall be free, in respect of such product, and to the extent and for
                                                     
462 The competent authorities' report is reproduced in Exhibit CHL-1.
463 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 138 and its first oral statement, paragraph 87 and
Chile's response to question No. 1 of the Panel for the parties' views on the relevant documentation.
464 See Appellate Body Report in US – Wool Shirts and Blouses ,  p. 14; DSR 1997:I, at p. 337.
465 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.1.
466 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 30 and 31.WT/DS238/R
Page 65
such time as may be necessary to prevent or remedy such injury, to suspend the
obligation in whole or in part or to withdraw or modify the concession."
7.12 This provision and the Agreement on Safeguards are to be applied cumulatively, in view of
the fact that Article 1 of the Agreement on Safeguards states that the purpose of that agreement is to
establish "rules for the application of safeguard measures which shall be understood to mean 'thosemeasures provided for in Article XIX of GATT 1994'", and Article 11.1(a) prohibits certain action
"unless such action conforms with the provisions of that Article applied in accordance with this
Agreement".  This interpretation is confirmed by various reports of panels and the Appellate Body.
467
The parties to this dispute have proceeded on the basis of that interpretation.  Therefore, in order toapply a safeguard measure, Members' competent au thorities must, among other things, demonstrate as
a matter of fact the existence of unforeseen developments.
468
7.13 The Panel must assess whether Argentina's competent authorities "demonstrated as a matter
of fact" the existence of unforeseen developments.  The question arises as to when and where that
demonstration must take place.  Given that this is a prerequisite for the application of a safeguard
measure, its existence cannot be demonstrated after the measure is applied.  This was the approach of
the Appellate Body in US – Lamb :
"[W]e note that the text of Article XIX provides no express guidance on this issue.
However, as the existence of unforeseen developments is a prerequisite that must be
demonstrated, as we have stated, 'in order for a safeguard measure to be applied'  469
consistently with Article XIX of the GAT T 1994, it follows that this demonstration
must be made  before   the safeguard measure is applied.  Otherwise, the legal basis
for the measure is flawed. (…) In our view, the logical connection between the
'conditions' identified in the second clause of  Article XIX:1(a) and the 'circumstances'
outlined in the first clause of that provision dictates that the demonstration of the
existence of these circumstances must also feature in the same report of the
competent authorities.  Any other approach would sever the 'logical connection'
between these two clauses, and would also leave vague and uncertain howcompliance with the first clause of Article XIX:1(a) would be fulfilled."
470
7.14 We will therefore look for the demonstration of the existence of unforeseen developments in
the competent authorities' report which the CNCE made before the application of the preserved
peaches measure.
7.15 Chile alleges that there is no mention, even indirectly, of Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 or
its prior requirement of unforeseen developments in  the competent authorities' report, including the
technical report.471  Argentina denies this claim, although it does not dispute that the report makes no
express reference to "the result of unforeseen developments".
                                                     
467 Appellate Body Reports in Argentina – Footwear (EC), paragraph 92; Korea – Dairy , paragraph 85;
US – Lamb , paragraph 71; and Panel Reports in US – Line Pipe , paragraph 7.295 and Chile – Price Band
System,  paragraph 7.134.
468 The parties' arguments as to whether the competent authorities' published report contained a finding
and a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the facts investigated support the conclusion relate to the claimunder Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.  Without expressing a view on whether Article XIX:1(a)itself requires a reasoned and adequate explanation of  the existence of unforeseen developments, the Panel
understands that the substance of many of those arguments relates to the demonstration required under
Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 as well, so that they should also be considered here.
469Appellate Body Report in Korea – Dairy , paragraph 85;  see also, Appellate Body Report,
Argentina  – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 92.
470 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 72.
471 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.1.WT/DS238/R
Page 66
7.16 Both parties presented argument in their first written submissions which proceeded on the
basis that the unforeseen developments in this case, if there had been any, comprised or included an
increase in imports.472 Chile argued that the competent authorities identified the unforeseen
developments with the increase in imports.473
7.17 It is important to note that Article XIX:1(a) refers to "imports in such increased quantities and
under such conditions" as to cause or threaten serious injury as a result of "unforeseen developments"
and the effect of obligations.  The link between these elements, according to which one has certain
effects "as a result" of the other, means that they must be two distinct things.  This is consistent with
the approach of the Appellate Body in its reports in Argentina – Footwear (EC) and Korea –  Dairy
where it referred to a "logical connection" between these elements:
"In this sense, we believe that there is a logical connection between the circumstances
described in the first clause – 'as a result of unforeseen developments and of the effectof the obligations incurred by a Member under this Agreement, including tariff
concessions … ' – and the conditions set forth in the second clause of
Article XIX:1(a) for the imposition of a safeguard measure."
474
7.18 The text of Article XIX:1(a) cannot support an interpretation that would equate increased
quantities of imports with unforeseen developments.
7.19 Argentina argued that three factors constituted unforeseen developments: (a) increased
production as a result of an exceptional Greek harvest; (b) substantial increase in world stocks; and (c)
a downward price trend.475  Argentina argues that the competent authorities' report contains a finding
and demonstration of the existence of unforeseen developments in the following passages:476
– In the joint opinion, in the section headed "Conditions of competition":
" … the significant increase in world production in 1998, 1999 and 2000
(more than 16 per cent) was concentrated in the northern hemisphere, and
was essentially due to the sharp increase in production in the EU during the
1999-2000 season (50 per cent higher than in the previous year), which, in itsturn, had a definitive effect on its share in world trade (16 per cent).
Similarly, there was a declining trend in prices for products from producers
located in both hemispheres, but the trend was more marked in the case of the
northern hemisphere … "
477
– In Part V of the technical report, in a section on the international market for preserved
peaches, under the heading "Industry and international trade in the main producer
countries" and the subheading "The overall framework":
"…[s]ubstantial increases in the European harvest of peaches for industrial
use, due to favourable climatic conditions, enabled the European Union's
output of preserved peaches to reach a record of 678,000 tons in the
                                                     
472 See, for example, Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.13, 4.16 and 4.85 and its first oral
statement, paragraphs 10, 13 and 14, and Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 33.
473 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 7.
474 See Appellate Body Reports in Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 92 and Korea – Dairy ,
paragraph 85, quoted with approval in US – Lamb, paragraph 72.
475 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 9.
476 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 5 and 28 of the Panel and its rebuttal, paragraphs 10
to 12.
477 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.4 headed "Conditions of competition", penultimate
paragraph.WT/DS238/R
Page 67
marketing year 1999/2000, signifying an increase of nearly 50 per cent
compared with the previous year … ", and
" … European exports of preserved peaches amounted to 428,500 tons in
1999/2000, representing a 16 per cent increase over the previous marketing
year."478
– In Part VI of the technical report, devoted to arguments put forward in the file in
relation to injury and the application of a safeguard measure, statements made by the
Chamber of Industrial Fruit Production of Mendoza (CAFIM) in its application for a
provisional safeguard measure:
" … world production for 1999/2000 is estimated at a world record of
1,242,616 tons, a 14 per cent increase over the previous period and nearly8,000 tons more than the previous record for the period 1992/1993.  World
exports are expected to set a record of 617,900 tons, 15 per cent up on the
previous year and 34,353 tons higher than the 1995/1996 record.  Closing
inventories will stand at 191,843 tons, 51 per cent more than at the end of the
previous period".
479
7.20 The Panel observes that the only mention in these passages of the alleged development
concerning an increase in world stocks480 is taken from Part VI of the technical report, which begins
with the following disclaimer:
"This part of the report is based on the various lines of argument presented by each of
the parties. Its contents do not therefore in any way constitute the opinion of theCNCE technical team."
7.21 Argentina indicated that the information and data revealed by the investigation was evaluated
and taken into account by the investigating authority in its determination
481, but the Panel could not
find any place in the joint opinion where the competent authorities showed how they evaluated or
took account of the statement regarding world stocks.  Therefore, this statement regarding worldstocks in Part VI of the Technical Report cannot constitute by itself a demonstration by the competent
authorities.  The Panel finds that there is no demonstration that world stocks were an unforeseen
development as required by Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.
7.22 As regards the other alleged developments, namely an increase in world production and a
declining trend in world prices, these both appear in the first passage, taken from the joint opinion,
which contains the conclusions and reasoning of the CNCE directors who voted in favour of the
preserved peaches measure.  We understand that the references in that passage to increases in worldand European production are based to some extent on the other three passages, taken from the
technical report, but observe that there is no refere nce to a downward price trend in the other passages
on which Argentina relies, although it may be based on other information in the technical report. The
Panel will therefore consider whether the competent authorities demonstrated in their report as a
matter of fact that these two developments constituted unforeseen developments in the sense requiredby Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.
                                                     
478 See the technical report, page 47.
479 See the technical report, Section VI, paragraphs 7 and 8 on pages 73 and 74.
480 See Argentina's response to Panel Question No. 5.
481 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 13.WT/DS238/R
Page 68
7.23 Following the approach of the Appellate Body in US – Lamb482, we will first consider
whether the competent authorities discussed or offered any explanation as to why the changes
mentioned in these alleged developments could be regarded as "unforeseen developments" within the
meaning of Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.  In the Panel's view, this requires, as a minimum, some
discussion by the competent authorities as to why they were unforeseen at the appropriate time, andwhy conditions in the second clause of Article XIX:1(a) occurred "as a result" of circumstances in the
first clause.
7.24 The passage in the joint opinion and the supporting passages in Part V of the technical report
on which Argentina relies, and which are quoted above, make no mention of either of these issues.
Nevertheless, the Panel has noted that the following paragraph of the joint opinion states that these
developments had resulted ( "se han materializado" ) in the entry of the investigated product from
different origins in an unforeseen and unexpected way.
483  It indicates that the entry of the imports, or
the way in which they were being imported, was unforeseen, but there is no mention that the alleged
developments themselves were unforeseen.  We have already observed in paragraph 7.18 that an
increase in imports and the unforeseen developments must be two distinct elements.  A statement that
the increase in imports, or the way in which they were being imported, was unforeseen, does not
constitute a demonstration as a matter of fact of the existence of unforeseen developments .  We do not
agree with the statement by the Appellate Body in Argentina – Footwear (EC)  that "the increased
quantities of imports should have been 'unforeseen' or 'unexpected'."484  The text of Article XIX:1(a),
together with the Appellate Body's own discussion of  it and earlier conclusion regarding the logical
connection between the circumstances in the first clause of Article XIX:1(a) – including unforeseen
developments – and the conditions in the second clause – including an increase in imports – show thatthis is not a requirement for the imposition of a safeguard measure.
7.25 There is the issue of the point in time at which Article XIX:1(a) requires that developments
should have been unforeseen.  Chile stated that the developments should have been unforeseen by a
Member at the time it incurred the relevant obligation.
485  In response to questions posed by the Panel,
both parties submitted basically that developments should have been unforeseen by the negotiators atthe time at which they granted the relevant concession.
486
7.26 We recall that the Appellate Body in both Argentina – Footwear (EC) and Korea – Dairy
quoted the following statement in the US – Fur Felt Hats GATT Working Party report of 1951:
"… 'unforeseen developments' should be interpreted to mean developments occurring
after the negotiation of the relevant tariff concession which it would not be reasonable
to expect that the negotiators of the country making the concession could and should
have foreseen at the time when the concession was negotiated."487
7.27 In its report in Korea – Dairy , the Appellate Body made the following finding:
"In our view, the text of Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994, read in its ordinary
meaning and in its context, demonstrates that safeguard measures were intended by
the drafters of the GATT to be matters out of the ordinary, to be matters of urgency,
to be, in short, 'emergency actions'.  And, such 'emergency actions' are to be invoked
only in situations when, as a result of obligations incurred under the GATT 1994, an
                                                     
482 Appellate Body Report, paragraph 73.
483 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.3 headed "Conditions of competition".
484 See Appellate Body Report in Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 131 referring to paragraphs
91 to 98 of the same report.
485 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.11.
486 See Chile's and Argentina's respective responses to question No. 7 of the Panel.
487 See Appellate Body Reports in Argentina – Footwear (EC),  paragraph 96, and Korea – Dairy ,
paragraph 89, citing US – Fur Felt Hats  , adopted 22 October 1951.WT/DS238/R
Page 69
importing Member finds itself confronted with developments it had not 'foreseen' or
'expected' when it incurred that obligation."488
7.28 We will apply this interpretation and determine whether the competent authorities assessed
whether the developments which they identified were unforeseen as at the time the relevant obligation
was negotiated.  We emphasize that we are not now discussing the time at which the competentauthorities must demonstrate the existence of unforeseen developments in order to adopt a safeguard
measure.
7.29 In this case, the relevant obligations are Argentina's current tariff concessions on preserved
peaches.
489  The parties agree that those concessions were negotiated during the Uruguay Round490 but
there is no mention of those negotiations in the competent authorities' report.491  Neither the joint
opinion nor the technical report discusses or offers any explanation why Argentina did not foresee the
later developments in world production or world prices at the time of the Uruguay Round.  It appearsthat the CNCE directors who voted in favour of th e preserved peaches measure believed that the "way
in which imports were entering" was "unforeseen and unexpected" from 1998, the earliest date
mentioned in this section of the joint opinion, when the increases in world production and the decline
in world prices began.  Even if the CNCE directors had mentioned that the developments in world
production and prices in 1999/2000 were unforeseen as at 1998, which they did not, this would havebeen four years later than the end of the Uruguay Round, which was the appropriate time as of which
to assess whether developments were unforeseen  in the sense of Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.
7.30 The only evidence which the Panel has seen in the competent authorities' report that could be
relevant to what Argentina foresaw during the Ur uguay Round tends to show that these developments
were not unforeseen.  The supporting passage from Part VI of the technical report, on whichArgentina relies, is a statement of an interested party about the volume of world production of
preserved peaches in 1999/2000.  It compares the volume with the volume of world production in
1992/1993 – which was a season during the Uruguay Round – and shows that the volume in
1999/2000 was less than one per cent higher.
492  This would normally indicate that a level of
production such as the one that occurred in 1999/2000 could and should have been foreseen by theArgentine negotiators at least before the end of the Uruguay Round. Argentina argued that its
negotiators could not reasonably have been expected to foresee that abnormal circumstances, such as
the record world production in 1992/1993, would become the rule rather than the exception.
493  The
competent authorities' report contains no finding or evidence that these abnormal circumstances did
become the rule. The Panel asked Argentina why its negotiators in the Uruguay Round did not expect
such fluctuations in the future.  Argentina re plied that the Agreement on Safeguards applies
specifically to situations of injury under fair tr ading conditions which, owing to their exceptional
nature, are difficult to predict.494 Whilst this may be true, given that in this case the alleged unforeseen
                                                     
488 See Appellate Body Report in Korea – Dairy , paragraph 86.
489 Argentina's binding of 35 per cent on preserved peaches  appears in the first note to Section I-A of its
GATT Schedule of Concessions, dated 15 April 1994.
490 See Chile response to question No. 7 of the Panel;  Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs
15, 18 and 19;  Argentina's response to questions Nos. 7 and 31 of the Panel and question No. 2 of Chile.
491 There is only a mention of the bound tariff rate in the Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.1
headed "Evolution of imports".  There is no mention of the market access expectations of the Argentinenegotiators or the particular content surrounding the Uruguay Round, to which Argentina referred inparagraphs 15 to 19 of its second oral statement.
492 See Argentina's response to question No. 6 of the Panel, citing information submitted by an
interested party and contained in the technical report that estimated world production in 1999/2000 at a record
1,242,616 tons.  According to Argentina, this repres ented a 14 per cent increase over the previous period and
almost 8,000 tons more than the previous record in 1992/1993.  From this we can calculate that the increase ofthe 1999/2000 estimate over 1992/1993 was approximately 0.64 per cent.
493 See Argentina's response to questions Nos. 7 and 8 of the Panel.
494 See Argentina's response to question No. 31 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
Page 70
developments are fluctuations in production, stocks and prices of a commodity, we would not expect
that tariff negotiators could not and should not foresee them.
7.31 Argentina drew the Panel's attention to the incorporation in Argentine law of WTO rules and
stressed that the competent authorities stated fro m the very beginning of their analysis that the
investigation would be conducted in accordance with the regulations laid down in the framework ofArticle XIX of GATT 1994.
495  The Panel notes that the former refers to the creation of legal
obligations in Argentina's domestic legal order and the latter is a statement of principle.  Neither
amounts to a demonstration of the existence of unforeseen developments in the preserved peaches
case.
7.32 The joint opinion does refer to "unforeseen developments" as such in its final conclusion,
which is basically reproduced in Record No. 7 81 and Resolution No. 348/2001. It reads as follows:
"Having concluded that the domestic industry is facing a threat of serious injury
within the meaning of Article 4 of the Agreement on Safeguards and that this is
occurring in a context of unforeseen developments , Dr Lidia Elena M. de Di Vico and
Dr Héctor F. Arese find that the requirements under that Agreement justifying the
application of a safeguard measure have been met. [emphasis added]"
7.33 A mere phrase in a conclusion, without supporting analysis of the existence of unforeseen
developments, is not a substitute for a demonstration of fact.  The failure of the competent authorities
to demonstrate that certain alleged developments were unforeseen in the foregoing section of their
report is not cured by the concluding phrase.
7.34 The Panel has observed that this phrase refers to a "context" ( "contexto" ) of unforeseen
developments unlike Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 which refers to their "result" ( "consecuencia" ).
Argentina argues that the introductory reference to the Agreement on Safeguards and Article XIX of
GATT 1994 on page 1 of the Annex to Record No. 781 shows that, when the directors wrote
"context", they meant the same thing as "result".496  Chile does not agree, and argues that the use of
the word "context" shows that the competent authorities' conclusion is inconsistent with
Article XIX:1(a).497  We note that the words "context" and "result" have different meanings in the
original Spanish (and in English and French), the key difference being that the word "result" denotes a
causal relationship, which the word "context" does not.  However, in view of our reasoning in the
previous paragraphs, it is unnecessary to form a final view on this argument.
7.35 For all these reasons, the Panel finds that the competent authorities' report does not
demonstrate as a matter of fact the existence of unforeseen developments as required by
Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994.
7.36 Chile also claimed in its first written submission that the facts before the competent
authorities showed that the alleged unforeseen developments were not unforeseen.498  The basis of that
claim was that the increase in imports (not the unforeseen developments) was a recovery that was
expected after the "interruption" in 1997 and 1998.  In view of the Panel's finding499, and Chile's own
later argument500, that increased quantities of imports cannot be equated with unforeseen
developments, it is unnecessary for the Panel to consider this claim.
                                                     
495 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 34, Argentina's first oral statement, paragraph 4.
496 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 8 and 9.
497 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 10.
498 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.10 to 4.13.
499 See paragraph 7.18 above.
500 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 7.WT/DS238/R
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2. Increase in imports
7.37 Chile claims that Argentina acted inconsistently with Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and
Articles 2.1 and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards because the competent authorities did not
demonstrate during the period of investigati on (1996-2000) that preserved peaches were being
imported in such increased quantities, absolute or relative to domestic production, and under suchconditions as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic industry that produces like or
directly competitive products.
501  It argues that the increases in imports in both absolute and relative
terms correspond to a foreseen and expected recovery by those imports of their historical levels that
were severely disrupted in 1997 and 1998 by an isolated and unexpected climatic situation which
affected the production and export capacity of Greece, the leading world producer and exporter of
preserved peaches.502  Argentina denies the claim and submits that the increase was both absolute and
relative.503  It further argues that what the Argentine industry was facing was not a hypothetical
recovery of imports to their historical levels but "unforeseen developments".504
(a) Periods of analysis
7.38 The competent authorities' report does not identify an "investigation period" as such.505 When
asked by the Panel to confirm the dates of the investigation period, Argentina replied that "The
gathering of import data covers the period 1996-2000."506  The Panel asked Argentina to explain
which were the criteria that the competent authorities used in order to select the period of time for
their analysis of increased imports in absolute an d relative terms.  Argentina did not respond to this
part of that question.507
7.39 The technical report and joint opinion show that data was collected and considered on volume
of imports in absolute  terms for five years from 1996 to 2000, and in some respects six years, from
1995. Data was collected and considered on volume of imports relative  to domestic production for
four years from 1997 to 2000. Argentina explained that, under its legislation, one of the requirements
for applications to initiate investigations into safeguard measures is the submission of import data "for
the last five full years to substantiate the significant increase in absolute or relative terms of the
product being imported".508 Argentina emphasizes that this obligation binds applicants but not the
competent authority.509
7.40 The technical report and joint opinion show that data was collected and considered for the
domestic industry for four years from 1997 to 2000, although there is also mention of certain features
of the industry during prior years.
7.41 We note that Argentina has used the term "period of analysis" in its rebuttal submission. For
the purposes of our examination, we will use that term as well and simply note that the period for
which the competent authorities analysed data was the five year period 1996-2000 in absolute terms,and 1997-2000 in relative terms.
                                                     
501 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.15.
502 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 23.
503 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 61
504 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraphs 18 and 19.
505 See, for example, the absence of a reference to this period in the information summary on page (i) of
the technical report.  However, on two occasions the investigating authorities refer to the "period considered"and the "period investigated" as 1997-2000 in the section on the domestic market (see page 34 of the technicalreport).
506 See Argentina's response to question No. 12 of the Panel.
507 See Argentina's response to question No. 14 of the Panel.
508 See Decree No. 1059/96, Annex 1, paragraph (e) reproduced in full in Exhibit CHL-5, explained by
Argentina in its first written submission, paragraph 58.
509 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 58.WT/DS238/R
Page 72
(b) Competent authorities' determination
7.42 The relevant section of the joint opinion reads as follows:
"Evolution of imports
…In the period 1996/2000, Argentine imports of preserved peaches evolved in a way
that needs to be analysed against a background of various factors, including climatic
conditions, countervailing measures in force in Argentina, and the structural patterns
of world production.
510  Thus, a comparison of the beginning and end of the period in
question, without prejudice to the analysis of the years in between, shows that imports
in tons in 2000 represented 85 per cent of the volume imported in 1996, but measured
in dollars f.o.b. they only came to 64 per cent of the value for that year.
The year 1996 shows the greatest volume of imports with a figure of over
14,000 tons, equivalent to 10 million dollars f.o.b, which gives us a general average
price for all origins of 0.699 dollars per kilogram.  Greece was the leading exporter to
Argentina during this period, representing 42 per cent of the total volume and
approximately 36 per cent of the value, with an average price of 0.596 dollars f.o.b.
per kilogram, within a range of 0.70 to 0.46 US$/kg.
In 1997 and 1998 total Argentine imports511  fell by 55 per cent and 45 per cent
respectively, owing to severe climatic conditions that affected world production and,
consequently, trade in the product in question.  An examination of average f.o.b.
prices shows that they increased in 1997, as did the price of the main exporter,
Greece.  In 1998 these prices continued to rise on average, though to a lesser extent.In the case of Greece, however, they fell by some 15 per cent to a level of
0.594US$/kg.
An analysis of the most recent period s hows that in 1999, total imports grew sharply
(by more than 100 per cent), a situation which recurred in 2000 with a growth of
68 per cent.  Imports for 2000 exceeded 12,000 tons for an f.o.b. dollar value ofapproximately 6,400,000.  In this last year imports from Greece, the leading exporter,
came to 60 per cent of the total imports.
In 1999 the average price fell to 0.625 US$/kg. and in 2000 to US$0.525/kg. f.o.b.
The determining factor of this fall was the pric es of the main exporters, that is to say,
the European Union and, more specifically, Greece, whose average f.o.b. price in
2000 was 0.412 US$/kg.
The prices of the imports in the domestic market have generally remained below the
domestic price, despite the existence of tariffs equivalent to Argentina's bound ceiling
of 35 per cent and of countervailing duties for Greece.
According to the figures supplied by CAFIM for the ratio of imports to domestic
production for the most recent period, imports represented 11 per cent in 1999 and 19
per cent in 2000.
                                                     
510 [Original footnote] Imports for the period 1996/2000 were also analysed in the light of Decree
1059/96.
511 [Original footnote] Not including MERCOSUR.WT/DS238/R
Page 73
On the basis of the survey, the Commission concludes that imports satisfy the
provisions of Article 2 of the Agreement on Safeguards, insofar as there was an
increase in imports in the most recent period, both in absolute terms and in relation to
domestic production, at prices which justify proceeding with the analysis provided for
in Article 4 of the Agreement on Safeguards."512
(c) Evaluation of the determination
7.43 The Panel will consider this passage in the context of the rest of the joint opinion and the
technical report, in its assessment of Chile's claims.  We recall the standard of review of the factual
aspects of a determination of an increase in imports as formulated by the Panel in US – Line Pipe ,
following the Panel in US – Wheat Gluten, which we will also apply:
"[W]hether the published report on the investigation contains an adequate, reasoned
and reasonable explanation of how the facts in the record before the ITC support thedetermination made with respect to increased imports."
513
(i) Increase in imports in absolute terms
7.44 Chile claims that Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations in respect of the finding
of an increase in imports both in absolute terms and in relative terms.  The Panel will first consider
the finding regarding absolute quantities, and c onsider separately the finding regarding relative
quantities.  The data on imports in absolute terms re ferred to in the above passage is presented in the
following graph. 514
                                                     
512 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.1 headed "Evolution of imports".
513 See Panel Report in US – Line Pipe, paragraph 7.194.
514 This data is taken from Table 15 and accompanying graphics in the technical report.  The graph
includes the 1999 figure for imports in absolute terms in terms of value, which was not quoted by the directors.Evolution of Imports
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Tons/Dollars ('000)
Volume Tons Value Dollars FOB ('000)WT/DS238/R
Page 74
7.45 The parties agree that the competent authorities used 1998 as the base year for the
determination of an increase in imports.515  This was the case both in terms of volume and value of
imports.  In making their finding, the directors took account of decreases in prices over the same
period.
7.46 Accordingly, the issue for the Panel to decide is whether the competent authorities determined
that there was an increase in imports in absolute terms as required by Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994
and Articles 2 and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards based on the period 1998-2000.
7.47 Article XIX:1(a) GATT 1994 provides, relevantly, as follows:
"If … any product is being imported into the territory of that Member in such
increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten serious injury
to domestic producers in that territory of like or directly competitive products …"
7.48 Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards provides:
"A Member may apply a safeguard measure to a product only if that Member has
determined, pursuant to the provisions set out below, that such product is being
imported into its territory in such increased quantities, absolute or relative to domestic
production, and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury
to the domestic industry that produces like or directly competitive products."
7.49 These two provisions contain the three basic conditions making up the legal basis for a
safeguard measure.  The first of these is an increase in imports.  Article 2.1 provides that it may be in
either absolute or relative terms.  Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards explains how the
investigation should be conducted to determine whether the conditions in Article 2.1 and the second
clause of Article XIX:1(a) are satisfied.  It provides, relevantly:
"… the competent authorities shall evaluate all relevant factors of an objective and
quantifiable nature having a bearing on the situation of that industry, in particular, the
rate and amount of the increase in imports of the product concerned in absolute and
relative terms, …"
7.50 We begin by agreeing with Argentina that none of these provisions establish a minimum
period for the investigation, nor any so-called "base period" within the investigation period on which
to base a determination of an increase in imports. 516
7.51 We recall that an increase in imports, in the sense required by Article 2.1 and
Article XIX:1(a), was interpreted by the Appellate Body in Argentina – Footwear (EC)  as follows:
"(…) In our view, the determination of whether the requirement of imports 'in such
increased quantities' is met is not a merely mathematical or technical determination.
In other words, it is not enough for an investigation to show simply that imports ofthe product this year were more than last year – or five years ago.  Again, and it bears
repeating, not just  any  increased quantities of imports will suffice.  There must be
'such  increased quantities' as to cause or threaten to cause serious injury to the
domestic industry in order to fulfil this requirement for applying a safeguard measure.
And this language in both Article 2.1 of the  Agreement on Safeguards   and
Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994, we believe, requires that the increase in imports
                                                     
515 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 13(b) and Argentina's response to question No. 34 of the Panel.
516 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 57.WT/DS238/R
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must have been recent enough, sudden enough, sharp enough, and significant enough,
both quantitatively and qualitatively, to cause or threaten to cause 'serious injury'".517
7.52 The Panel agrees with Argentina that it is not required to show that imports have increased
over five years and we have seen no evidence of such a requirement under Argentine law either.
However, the point is that there is no fixed period of five years or any other length of time over whichfigures can simply be subtracted to yield an increase in imports in the sense of Article 2.1 and
Article XIX:1(a). Accordingly, neither the mathematical increase in imports of preserved peaches in
the last two years, nor the mathematical decrease over the whole five year period of analysis, is
determinative.
7.53 Argentina refers to the passage quoted above from Argentina – Footwear (EC)  and argues
that the increase in imports identified by the directors was recent.
518  The directors noted that they
based their analysis on "the most recent period", i.e. the last two years of the period for which datawas collected and considered.  We agree that the last two years of the period of analysis was the most
recent period.  However, we concur with the Panel in US – Line Pipe  that the word "recent" does not
imply that the analysis must focus exclusively on conditions at the very end of the period of
analysis.
519  The directors also qualified the increase in imports in the last two years of the period of
analysis as "sharp".520  We do not disagree.  We see no evidence that they considered whether the
increase was sudden or significant.
7.54 We believe that a recent and sharp increase in imports is a necessary, but not a sufficient,
condition to satisfy Article 2.1 and Article XIX:1(a).  The increase is not merely the product of a
quantitative analysis, it must also be qualitative.  This was the approach of the Appellate Body in the
passage quoted above from Argentina – Footwear (EC),  where it found that an increase in imports as
required by Article 2.1 and Article XIX:1(a) must be recent, sudden, sharp and significant enough ,
both quantitatively and qualitatively.  It is therefore not sufficient to find that an increase in imports is
only recent, sudden, sharp and significant mathematically.
7.55 The qualitative analysis required was illustrated by the Appellate Body in Argentina –
Footwear (EC)  when it interpreted the requirement in Arti cle 4.2(a) that the competent authorities
evaluate the "rate and amount" of the increase in imports.  They found that it meant that the competent
authorities in that case should have considered the trends in imports over the period of investigation,
rather than just comparing the end points, and to consider the sensitivity of their analysis to the
particular end points of the investigation period used.521
7.56 In the competent authorities' report in the present dispute, the CNCE directors who voted in
favour of the measure considered the rate of the increase in imports in the last two years of the period
of analysis.  They cited increases of 100 per cent and 68 per cent in 1999 and 2000 respectively overthe previous years.  They also considered the amount  of the increase in imports, in both volume and
value.
522  They noted the trends in imports over the period of analysis, and also compared the end
points.  The data available in the technical report, which they did not quote, shows that the end points
of the period of analysis 1996-2000 revealed a decrease in imports in absolute terms by volume of
2,217 tons or 15 per cent and a decrease by f.o.b. value of US$3,661,306 or 36 per cent.
7.57 The directors recognized the sensitivity of 1998 as their choice of base year for their
determination of an increase in imports.  They ex pressly acknowledged that an unusual factor – the
                                                     
517 See Appellate Body Report in Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 131.
518 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 57 to 59.
519 See Panel Report in US – Line Pipe , paragraph 7.204.
520 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.1 headed "Evolution of imports". A dissenting director
wrote that the increase was not "sharp": see Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.B.
521 See Appellate Body Report in Argentina – Footwear (EC) , paragraph 129.
522 In fact, the amounts for 1999 were omitted, but they appear in the technical report, table 15.WT/DS238/R
Page 76
bad harvest in the major exporting country – affected that year, which was 1998.  They acknowledged
that over the whole period for which they considered data there was a decrease in imports, so that they
were aware that their choice of the base year decisively affected their determination as to whether
there was an increase in imports at all.
7.58 However, the Panel finds no record in the joint opinion that the directors related these
considerations to their determination of an increase in imports.  Indeed, the report indicates that once
they had acknowledged the decrease from 1996 to 2000, the trend from 1996 to 1997 and the
sensitivity of the figures for 1998, they disregarded these considerations in reaching their conclusion.
By contrast, the investigating authority qualified the increase in imports as a "recovery", which shows
how it took account of the trends.  This explanation of the qualitative significance of the increase from
1998 to 2000 does not appear in the joint opinion, and hence is lacking from the reasoning of the
competent authorities that led to the imposition of the preserved peaches measure.523
7.59 The Panel asked Argentina whether it believed that the statistics for 1997 and 1998 were
representative of imports or were influenced by any unusual factors and, if the latter, how the
competent authorities took account of this in their determination.  Argentina replied by providing
statistics for 1997 and 1998 that appear in the joint opinion reproduced above.524  The Panel posed a
follow up question to Argentina to ask how the competent authorities took account of these statisticsin their determination of an increase in imports.  Argentina replied that they did so in the sense that
appears in Part V of the Annex to Record No. 781 , which contains the respective opinions of the
directors (reproduced in relevant part above).
525
7.60 The Panel finds it highly significant that the volume of imports in absolute terms declined
over the period of analysis – by a seventh in terms of volume and over a third in terms of price.  It ishighly significant that the volume of imports in absolute terms declined over the period 1996 to 1998
by more than the increase which the competent authorities identified from 1998 to 2000, and that this
was due to an unusual factor which is acknowledged on the record.  This decrease and the reason for
it affected the significance of the later increase, so that it was qualitatively different from an increase
of the same quantity under other circumstances.  Its significance may have been that of a recovery andnot an increase that was significant enough for the purposes of Article 2.1 and Article XIX:1(a).
7.61 We find that the competent authorities did at least acknowledge all the facts. Having done so,
they then took no further account of any of them for the purposes of their determination other than
those in the last two years of the period of anal ysis.  They did not consider how this affected
qualitatively the increase in the last two years of the period of analysis.  Therefore, the Panel
considers that their explanation was not adequately reasoned.
7.62 Argentina referred to a statement in the Appellate Body report in US – Lamb  that:
"[D]ata relating to the most recent past will provide competent authorities with an
essential, and, usually, the most reliable, basis for a determination of a threat of
serious injury.  The likely state of the domestic industry in the very near future can
best be gauged from data from the most recent past.  Thus, we agree with the Panel
that, in principle, within the period of investigation as a whole, evidence from the
                                                     
523 After the determination of an increase in imports, the joint opinion does address some qualitative
issues regarding world production, which it links to imports, in the paragraphs dealing with the alleged
unforeseen developments.  This only relates to the period 1998-2000 and does not add anything qualitative to
the analysis of the increase of imports, which the directors had already qualified as recent and sharp.  See Annex
to Record No. 781, Section V.A.3 h eaded "Conditions of competition".
524 See Argentina's response to question No. 15 of the Panel.
525 See Argentina's response to question No. 35 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
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most recent past will provide the strongest indication of the likely future state of the
domestic industry."526
7.63 We agree with Argentina that these considerations regarding the period relevant to a threat of
serious injury determination also apply to an increased imports determination, for the same reasons
expressed by the Panel in US – Line Pipe :
"In a safeguard investigation, the period of investigation for examination of the
increased imports tends to be the same as that for the examination of the serious
injury to the domestic industry.  This contrasts with the situation in an anti-dumping
or countervailing duty investigation where the period for evaluating the existence of
dumping or subsidization is usually shorter than the period of investigation for a
finding of material injury.  We are of the view that one of the reasons behind this
difference is that, as found by the Appellate Body in Argentina – Footwear
Safeguard,  "the determination of whether the requirement of imports 'in such
increased quantities' is met is not a merely mathematical or technical determination."
The Appellate Body noted that when it come s to a determination of increased imports
'the competent authorities are required to consider the  trends   [emphasis in original]
in imports over the period of investigation'. The evaluation of trends in imports, aswith the evaluation of trends in the factors relevant for determination of serious injury
to the domestic industry, can only be carried out over a period of time.  Therefore, we
conclude that the considerations that the Appellate Body has expressed with respect
to the period relevant to an injury determination also apply to an increased imports
determination." [original footnotes omitted] 
527
7.64 We do not believe that the statement to which Argentina refers in the Appellate Body report
in US – Lamb is authority for the proposition that the most recent data alone is sufficient for a
determination.  The most recent past should not be considered separately from the overall trends
during the period of analysis, as the succeeding paragraph of that report explains:
"However, we believe that, although data from the most recent past has special
importance, competent authorities should not consider such data in isolation from the
data pertaining to the entire period of investigation.  The real significance of the
short-term trends in the most recent data, evident at the end of the period of
investigation, may only emerge when those short-term trends are assessed in the light
of the longer-term trends in the data for the whole period of investigation.  If the most
recent data is evaluated in isolation, the resulting picture of the domestic industry
may be quite misleading.  For instance, although the most recent data may indicate adecline in the domestic industry, that decline may well be a part of the normal cycle
of the domestic industry rather than a precursor to clearly imminent serious injury.
Likewise, a recent decline in economic performance could simply indicate that the
domestic industry is returning to its normal situation after an unusually favourable
period, rather than that the industry is on the verge of a precipitous decline intoserious injury.  Thus, we believe that, in conducting their evaluation under
Article 4.2(a), competent authorities cannot rely exclusively on data from the most
recent past, but must assess that data in the context of the data for the entire
investigative period." [original footnote omitted]
 528
                                                     
526 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 137.  We note that the Panel in Chile –
Price Band System , paragraph 7.153, fn. 714, also considered this statement relevant to the analysis of actual
import trends.
527 See Panel Report in US -Line Pipe,  paragraph 7.209.
528 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 138.WT/DS238/R
Page 78
7.65 The Appellate Body acknowledged that by eval uating the most recent data in isolation, the
resulting picture of the domestic industry may be quite misleading.  We believe that the same is true
of the resulting picture of an increase in imports.  In the present case, we believe that the analysis of
the 1998-2000 data should not be considered in is olation.  However, the record shows that the
directors acknowledged the decrease from 1996 to 2000, the trend from 1996 to 1997, and thesensitivity of the figures for 1998, but did not evaluate the increase from 1998 to 2000 in light of
those facts.
7.66 Argentina argues that the investigating authority did not isolate the data for the last two years
from the whole period of investigation because:
"… the investigating authority took an investigation period (1996/2000) and detected
the increased imports in a period within the investigation period (1999/2000).  In
other words, the investigating authority, when evaluating the data corresponding tothe most recent past, clearly did not isolate that data from the data corresponding to
the entire investigation period."
529
7.67 In the Panel's view, the first sentence does not rebut the argument that the competent
authorities isolated the data for the end of the period for which they had data from the entire period.
Indeed, detecting an increase in only part of the period is synonymous with isolating the data for thatpart from the data corresponding to the entire peri od.  Merely commenting on the data for the first two
years without relating it to the mathematical increase in the last two does not amount to a
determination of a qualitative increase either.
7.68 Argentina also mentioned that in 1996 countervailing duties were applied to peaches from the
European Union which affected the flow of imports from that origin.
530 In the Panel's view, this
cannot justify the competent authorities disregarding the imports in 1996 for three reasons.  First,
countervailing duties could be expected to reduce the level of imports, which would not explain why
the 1996 figures were so much higher than the 1997 and 1998 figures.  Second, the competent
authorities had an explanation as to why the 1997 and 1998 figures were lower than 1996 – namely,
because there had been a bad harvest in Greece.  Third, the countervailing measure was in place at thesame rates for the entire period of analysis, excepting only the first nine days of 1996.
531  However,
there is no reason on the record that justified the competent authorities disregarding the effects of the
statistics for a whole year because of the effect of those nine days.  The Panel also notes that
Argentina does not argue that the countervailing measure was insufficient to offset the effect of the
subsidies.532
7.69 For all of the above reasons, the Panel finds that the competent authorities' determination of
an increase in imports in absolute  terms is inconsistent with Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on
Safeguards, and that they failed to determine an increase in imports in absolute terms as required by
Article 2.1.
                                                     
529 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 22. The Panel observes that Argentina does not confirm that the
period 1996 – 2000 was the investigation period in this case, but the Panel does not believe that this alters the
situation.  The period for which the competent authorities had import data in absolute terms available and which
they considered was the five year period from 1996 to 2000.  The competent authorities isolated the data for
1998 from the data for that entire five-year period.
530 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 20.
531 See Argentina's response to question No. 33 of the Panel.
532 See Argentina's response to question No. 55 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
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(ii) Increase in imports in relative terms
7.70 Our finding at paragraph 7.69 does not of itself prove that Argentina acted inconsistently with
Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1 an d 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards, as the
first condition for the application of a safeguard measure is an increase in imports in absolute or
relative terms.  In order to succeed on this claim, Chile must also show that the competent authoritiesfailed to show an increase in imports in relative terms.
7.71 The meaning of an increase in imports in relative terms is clear from Article 2.1 of the
Agreement on Safeguards which refers to "increased quantities, (…) relative to domestic production."
It is clear from the joint opinion that the data ci ted by the competent authorities refers to relative
quantities in this sense, calculated by reference to volume.
7.72 The treatment of imports relative to domestic production is particularly sparse in the
competent authorities' report.
533  The only relevant statement in the joint opinion – apart from the
conclusion that the increase satisfied Article 2 – reads as follows:
"According to the figures supplied by CAFIM for the ratio of imports to domestic
production for the most recent period, imports represented 11 per cent in 1999 and
19 per cent in 2000."534
7.73 The technical report contains data on quantities of imports relative to domestic production,
with sub-totals by hemisphere, for the years 1997 to 2000.  There is no data on relative quantities for
1996.  Argentina informed the Panel that the gathering of import data covers the period 1996-2000535,
but we take it that it meant the period for which applicants had to supply data, which was five years
on quantities of imports in absolute or relative terms and, in this case, import data was collected for
five years in absolute terms only.536 There are alternative figures for 2000: 18.57 per cent according to
CAFIM and 21.05 per cent according to the CNCE, due to their different figures for domestic
production in that year.537  This explains why the directors introduced the figures with the
qualification "According to the figures supplied by CAFIM".
7.74 We recall that there is no statement as to what was the investigation period.  For our purposes,
we need only find that the period of analysis of import quantities in relative terms was the four-yearperiod from 1997 to 2000.
7.75 The Panel asked Argentina over what periods of time the competent authorities found an
increase in imports in absolute and relative terms.  Argentina replied that the period is 1999-2000.
538
In response to a follow-up question, Argentina indicated that the base year for the determination of anincrease in imports was 1998.
539  Chile has proceeded on the premise that the base year was 1998.540
                                                     
533 Although the competent authorities cited relative rates of increase in imports of 100 per cent in 1999
and 68 per cent in 2000, those statistics refer to the absolute quantity for one year relative to the absolutequantity for the previous year, but not quantities relative to domestic production.  Before the Panel, Argentinacited a statistic for the quantity relative to domestic production for one year relative to the quantity relative to
domestic production for the previous year.  That is not a quantity relative to domestic production either, nor
does it appear in the competent authorities' report. We  do not consider those statistics in relation to the
determination of an increase in imports in relative terms for these reasons.   See Argentina's first written
submission, paragraph 61 and its rebuttal, paragraph 62.
534 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.1 headed "Evolution of imports".
535 See Argentina's response to question No. 12 of the Panel.
536 This appears to indicate that the applicants substa ntiated their application on the basis of an increase
in absolute terms only.
537 See Table 20 in the technical report.
538 See Argentina's response to question No. 14 of the Panel
539 See Argentina's response to question No. 34 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
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It appears that these approaches focus on absolute quantities.  Given that there is no reference in the
joint opinion to figures for relative quantities for 1998, and no reference to figures for relative
quantity for one year over another, the notion of "base year" refers, at best, to 1999, the figure for
which can be subtracted from that for 2000.
7.76 There is no reasoning in the competent author ities' report as to why they determined that
respective volumes of imports in relative terms of 11 per cent in 1999 and 19 per cent in 2000
constituted an increase in imports in relative terms in the sense of Article 2.1 and Article XIX:1(a).  In
fact, there is not an express determination of an increase in relative terms at all, although it can be
deduced from the quantities for two years which are given (7.49 per cent, based on the figures
supplied by CAFIM).541  The only facts which the competent authorities appear to have considered are
the statistics in table 20 of the technical report on imports relative to domestic production for four
years, which show annual increases.
7.77 The only evidence on the record that shows how the facts supported the determination of an
increase in imports in relative terms is the statement in the conclusion on evolution of imports that the
increase, in both absolute and relative terms, was "in the most recent period".  We refer to our
findings above at paragraphs 7.53 and 7.54 that this alone does not necessarily constitute an increase
in the sense of Article 2.1 and Article XIX:1(a), nor can it on the facts of this case without someadditional explanation. We see no evidence that the directors considered this sudden, sharp or
significant.  There is no qualitative analysis and almost no quantitative analysis.
7.78 In addition, our findings above in paragraphs 7.63 to 7.68 are applicable to the determination
of an increase in imports in relative terms.  The data for the most recent period, 1999 and 2000, was
isolated from the rest of the data, and the resulting picture of the increase in imports was quitemisleading.
7.79 For these reasons, the Panel finds that the competent authorities failed to determine an
increase in imports in relative terms as required by Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards.
7.80 Chile urged the Panel to consider data on apparent consumption of preserved peaches for the
period 1994-1996 drawn from a "Sectoral Study of Canned Peaches" prepared by the CNCE in 1998for an earlier investigation into peaches in syrup from the European Union (the "subsidies
investigation").
542  Chile alleges that the safeguard investigators referred to the file of the subsidies
investigation because it is mentioned in some statistical charts in the safeguards technical report.543
Argentina does not deny that the file of the subsidies investigation may be quoted as a source in thefile of the safeguard investigation and says that it was publicly available on the website of the CNCE
before the safeguards investigation began.  However, it denies that the safeguard investigation
technical report takes account of the data from the sectoral study.
544
7.81 We do not find that sectoral study relevant to our examination.  It contains figures on apparent
consumption and shows import quantities relative to domestic sales, not relative to domestic
production.  There are no figures for exports in 1996 which would allow a calculation of the quantity
                                                                                                                                                                    
540 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.36.
541 Argentina asserted before the Panel that the increase was in the order of 10 per cent ( see Argentina's
second oral statement, paragraph 29).  The difference in  the figures quoted by the directors is 8 per cent ( see
Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.A.1 headed "Evolution of imports").  These figures were rounded up fromthose in the technical report which show a difference of 7.49 per cent ( see Table 20 in the technical report). The
percentage can be subtracted because, according to the figures supplied by CAFIM, domestic production
volume was identical in 1999 and 2000.
542 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.24 to 4.26. The Sectoral Study is reproduced in
Exhibit CHL-6.
543 See Chile's rebuttal, paragraph 34.
544 See Argentina's response to question No. 11 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
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of imports relative to domestic production for that year.  Argentina has argued that the product under
consideration in the sectoral study is peaches in syrup which is not the same as preserved peaches545,
despite the cross-reference in two statistical charts.  It also argues that its statistics cannot be
compared with the preserved peaches data because they are measured in units of cans, not tons, and
that differences in apparent consumption and market and marketing structures between the period1994-1996 and 1999-2000 make the study unreliable.  Chile has not dispelled the doubts raised by
these arguments.
7.82 In view of our findings at paragraphs 7.69 and 7.79, we find that Argentina acted
inconsistently with its obligations under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1 and 4.2(a)
of the Agreement on Safeguards, because the competent authorities failed to make a determination of
an increase in imports, in absolute or relative terms, as required.
3. Threat of serious injury
7.83 Chile claims that Argentina acted inconsistently with Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and
Articles 2, 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards because, in making their determination
of a threat of serious injury:
(a) the competent authorities did not properly evaluate all of the factors having a bearing
on the situation of the domestic industry;
(b) the competent authorities evaluated factors in terms of the most recent past without
considering them in the context of the entire period investigated.  As part of this
claim, Chile alleges other deficiencies in the competent authorities' methodology; and
(c) the competent authorities' findings and conclusions with respect to the factors that
they investigated neither proved nor justified the claim that serious injury was clearlyimminent and they based their finding of "threat of serious injury" merely on
conjecture or remote possibility.
546
7.84 Argentina denies this claim and submits that the competent authorities conducted an analysis
that was consistent with the provisions of Arti cle XIX:1(a) and Article 4.2(a), (b) and (c) of the
Agreement on Safeguards.547  The Panel notes that there is no claim made under Article 4.2(c).
7.85 The Panel will consider these claims in the order set out above, as consideration of the
evaluation of the serious injury factors will assist in making findings on the competent authorities'
final conclusion that a threat of serious injury existed.
(a) Period of analysis
7.86  The competent authorities collected and considered data concerning the situation of the
domestic industry for the four-year period 1997-2000.  This was the period considered by the
directors in the joint opinion.  Import data was collected and considered for the five-year period 1996-2000, although the quantity of imports relative to domestic production was not calculated for 1996.
                                                     
545 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 64 to 66 and its response to question No. 11 of
the Panel.  Contrast the references to "peaches in syrup" with "canned peaches" in the Sectoral Study in Exhibit
CHL-6 with the product description in the technical re port in the preserved peaches safeguard investigation,
pages 11 and 12.
546 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.32.
547 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraphs 36 and 46.WT/DS238/R
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(b) Competent authorities' determination
7.87 The joint opinion contains a section headed "Situation of the domestic industry" which
summarizes findings on a series of injury factors, discussed below.  The conclusion of that section
reads as follows:
"On the basis of the considerations set forth above, of the Technical Report and of the
evidence contained in the file, Dr Lidia Elena M. de Di Vico and Dr Héctor Arese
conclude that the domestic preserved peaches industry shows indications of injury
that grew worse during the last year considered (2000), but that they do not qualify as
serious injury.  Nevertheless, these indicators reflect a high degree of sensitivity to
the change that is taking place in the market as a result of the imports."
7.88 The final phrase links the situation of the domestic industry and imports.  The analysis of the
evolution of imports in the joint opinion was reproduced in paragraph 7.42 above.  The conclusionreached in the joint opinion on the existence of a threat of serious injury, which appears in the section
headed "Causality", reads as follows:
"As concluded in the relevant section, there are signs of injury in the domestic
industry which, while they do not yet qualify as serious injury within the meaning of
Article 4.1(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards, show a high degree of sensitivity tothe change taking place in the market as a result of imports.  The behaviour of
imports observed towards the end of 2000 shows that they have the capacity, in terms
of price and volume, to cause serious injury.
"The lack of any indicators in the intern ational market showing that the volume and
price of world production and exports, both in the current year and in future years,would not equal or even exceed the levels  for the year 2000, leads to the conclusion
of threat of serious injury with in the meaning of Article 4.1(b)."
548
7.89 This passage shows that the directors identified imports as the threat to the domestic industry
due to their price and volume, and the situation of the domestic industry.  The period of time on which
they based this determination was "towards the end of 2000".  That description of the period of time isnot sufficiently precise to know what it was, nor what were the changes in prices and quantities during
that period.
7.90 The only injury factor which the directors expressly linked to imports in the section headed
"Situation of the domestic industry" was the level of stocks.  Otherwise, in their view, the relationship
between the injury factors and imports was that the former showed signs of a high degree of
sensitivity and the imports had the capacity to cause serious injury.
7.91 The other injury factors which were considered to demonstrate the high degree of sensitivity
are reviewed in the joint opinion.  A lthough the joint opinion states that its review of the situation of
the domestic industry is an analysis of the situation of the industry during the period 1997-2000, most
of the negative variations which it mentions consist of variations in 2000 as compared with 1999.
This is the case of reported and estimated domestic production, value of overall domestic market
sales, domestic market share, employment, labour productivity, wage bill, exports, selling prices andcost/price ratios.  It mentions falls in sales data from the accounting statements of surveyed companies
without limiting them to a particular year.
7.92 Most of the factors analysed showed deterioration.  Apparent consumption was growing and
the volume of sales by the domestic industry was steady.  The joint opinion mentioned the former in
                                                     
548 See Annex to Record No. 781, S ection V.A.4 headed "Causality".WT/DS238/R
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relation to falling domestic market share but did not mention the latter.  It mentioned growth in
production reported by the surveyed companies in 1998 and 1999.  The statistics for domestic
production supplied by CAFIM, which represented 100 per cent of the domestic industry, showed that
production was steady in 2000, but the competent authorities gave an explanation why they chose to
make their own estimates.549
(c) Evaluation of the determination
7.93 Chile's first two claims concern the competent authorities' evaluation, under Article 4.2(a),  in
making a determination of a threat of serious injury under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and
Article 2.1 of the Safeguards Agreement.  We will ap ply the standard of review to two aspects of the
evaluation in accordance with the following statement of the Appellate Body in US – Lamb :
"… in examining a claim under Article 4.2 of the  Agreement on Safeguards ,  a
panel's application of the appropriate standard of review of the competent authorities'determination has two aspects.  First, a panel must review whether the competent
authorities have, as a  formal   matter, evaluated  all relevant factors  and, second, a
panel must review whether those authorities have, as a  substantive   matter, provided
a  reasoned and adequate explanation  of how the facts support their
determinations."
550
7.94 We understand Chile's first two claims to correspond to these two aspects of the competent
authorities' determination.  We will begin with our review of the formal aspect first and review
whether the competent authorities evaluated, as a formal matter, all relevant factors .
(i) All relevant factors
7.95 Chile claims that the CNCE did not evaluate and investigate all the relevant factors having a
bearing on the situation of the domestic industry in particular and at a minimum those explicitly
mentioned in Article 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards.  It argues that the competent authorities
omitted three of the factors listed in Article 4.2(a), namely productivity, capacity utilization and
employment.551  It made a separate claim regarding an alleged unlisted factor: relating to the domestic
industry's "expansive readjustment".552  Argentina cites parts of the competent authorities' report that
purport to show these factors were investigated and evaluated.553
7.96 Article 4.2(a) requires a demonstration that the competent authorities evaluated, at a
minimum, each of the factors listed in Article 4.2(a) as well as all other factors that are relevant to the
situation of the industry concerned.554  We will therefore assess first whether the competent
authorities' determination, as a formal matter, eval uated the three listed relevant factors which Chile
claims were omitted.
                                                     
549 The competent authorities could not explain why the domestic production figure for 2000 was
identical to 1999 when the production of the companies surveyed had decreased, so the technical team made twoestimations for 2000 using two alternative methods.  See the methodological notes in the technical report,
Annex I, pages 2 and 3.
550 See the Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 141.
551 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.61 and 4.64.
552 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.63 and response to question No. 17 of the Panel.
553 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 91 to 94 and 104 to 106.
554 See the Appellate Body Report in Argentina – Footwear (EC),  paragraph 136.WT/DS238/R
Page 84
Capacity utilization
7.97 Table 6 of the technical report contains data for capacity utilization, which shows that among
those companies surveyed this factor improved in 1999 and declined in 2000 to its 1998 level of 73
per cent.  It also shows that the technical team calculated an industry-wide figure based on the figures
supplied by CAFIM which showed that this factor improved in 1999 and remained steady in 2000.  Astatement by CAFIM to this effect is noted in the body of the technical report.
555 All of this shows
merely that data on capacity utilization was collected and tabulated.  However, in terms of what the
competent authorities evaluated , in accordance with Article 4.2(a), the joint opinion does not mention
"capacity utilization" as such.  It does refer to the methodology for calculation of production and
installed capacity but does not mention any statistic or result for installed capacity.
7.98 Argentina argued that the competent authorities considered both the fall in production and the
increase in capacity.556 However, it did not direct us to any place on the record that shows that they
conducted any evaluation  of capacity utilization nor, for that matter, installed capacity.  The only
indirect reference to capacity utilization which the Panel could see in the joint opinion is a statement
that the directors reached the conclusion that the industry showed a high degree of sensitivity (which
was a prelude to the determination of a threat of serious injury) based on the consideration of injury
factors in the joint opinion (which did not include capacity utilization), the technical report (which didinclude capacity utilization) and the evidence contained in the file.  A catch-all phrase of this kind
does not demonstrate an evaluation of a factor.
7.99 The most that the Panel can say is that the CNCE directors who voted in favour of the
measure may have read the table of statistics which showed that capacity utilization either declined to
1998 levels or remained steady but there is nothing on the record that shows that they evaluated thefactor. It is not even clear which figure they might have referred to for 2000, or whether they might
have referred to both.  Therefore, the Panel finds that the competent authorities did not, as a formal
matter, evaluate this factor as required by Article 4.2(a).
Productivity
7.100  Table 7e of the technical report contains statistics on " producto medio físico del empleo ".
557
When asked to clarify, Argentina explained that this term was a measure of "own production divided
by the number of employees in the preserved peaches production sector".558  The body of the technical
report does not discuss this term.  However, unlike capacity utilization, the joint opinion mentions this
factor and notes falls, i.e. a deterioration, which it relates to falls in sales and production. This
indicates some evaluation, even if it represents the bare minimum.  Without prejudice to the question
whether labour productivity was a sufficient measure of productivity in the preserved peaches
industry, the Panel finds that productivity was evaluated, as a formal matter, as required byArticle 4.2(a).
                                                     
555 See the technical report, page 42 for the statement by CAFIM.  See page 87 for a statement by the
European Commission which appears in Part VI and therefore "does not in any way constitute the opinion of theCNCE technical team" (page 73).
556 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraphs 93 and 94, its rebuttal, paragraph 27 and its
response to question No. 48 of the Panel.
557 We provisionally translated this term as "labour productivity".  We asked Argentina to explain this
term and drew attention to the translation.  It did not object to our translation.
558 See Argentina's response to question No. 49 of the Panel.  Chile was non-committal on the meaning
of this term: see Chile's response to question No. 51 of the Panel.WT/DS238/R
Page 85
Employment
7.101  Tables 7a and 8 of the technical report contain data on the level of employment and the total
production wage bill.  The body of the technical report refers to the level of employment in primary
production.559  The joint opinion, in the same sentence in which it notes falls in labour productivity,
mentions employment, noting falls in 2000 which it relates to falls in sales and production.  The Paneltherefore finds that employment was evaluated, as a formal matter, as required by Article 4.2(a).
(ii) Reasoned and adequate explanation
7.102  Turning to Chile's claim concerning the substantive aspects of the competent authorities'
findings and conclusions of a threat of serious injury, the Panel must review whether the competent
authorities provided a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the facts supported their
determination that a threat of serious injury existed.  The temporal focus of the competent authorities'
evaluation of the data, and the alternative explanation that the rate and amount of the increase inimports reflected a recovery to historical levels, are among the various methodological issues which
Chile has raised.
560
7.103  We recall certain statements of the Appellate Body in US – Lamb concerning the appropriate
standard of review.  We have already quoted those statements concerning the value of the most recent
data in making a determination of the existence of a threat of serious injury, but also the danger ofevaluating the most recent data in isolation and the need to evaluate the short-term trends in the light
of the longer term trends.
561  We also bear in mind another statement in that report concerning the
standard of review of a determination of a threat of serious injury:
"We wish to emphasize that, although panels are not entitled to conduct a  de novo  
review of the evidence, nor to  substitute   their own conclusions for those of the
competent authorities, this does  not  mean that panels must simply  accept   the
conclusions of the competent authorities.  To the contrary, in our view, in examining
a claim under Article 4.2(a), a panel can assess whether the competent authorities'
explanation for its determination is reasoned and adequate  only  if the panel critically
examines that explanation, in depth, and in the light of the facts before the panel.Panels must, therefore, review whether the competent authorities' explanation fully
addresses the nature, and, especially, the complexities, of the data, and responds to
other plausible interpretations of that data.  A panel must find, in particular, that an
explanation is not reasoned, or is not adequate, if some alternative explanation   of the
facts is plausible, and if the competent authorities' explanation does not seem
adequate in the light of that alternative explanation.  Thus, in making an 'objective
assessment' of a claim under Article 4.2(a), panels must be open to the possibility thatthe explanation given by the competent authorities is not reasoned or adequate."
562
7.104  The Panel will consider the temporal focus of the competent authorities' evaluation of the data
in making their determination of a threat of serious injury, and whether their explanation was
adequate in the light of any plausible alternative explanation of the facts.
7.105  The determination of a threat of serious injury in this case rests on two findings: one
regarding the capacity of imports to cause injury  and the other regarding the "sensitivity" of the
domestic market.  Argentina argues that the determination was based on the overall weighing of all of
                                                     
559 See the technical report, page 25.
560 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.35-4.58.
561 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraphs 137 and 138, quoted in this Report at
paragraphs 7.62 and 7.64 above.
562 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 106.WT/DS238/R
Page 86
the factors having a bearing on the industry as set forth in the technical report and as illustrated in a
chart.563  However, the joint opinion makes it clear that the directors relied, with respect to imports, on
the last part of 2000 and, with respect to the situation of the domestic industry, mainly on the variation
from 1999 to 2000.  The joint opinion makes no mention of the rest of the period of analysis which, in
the case of import data, was 1996-2000 and, in the case of the situation of the domestic industry, was1997-2000.
7.106  Although the directors did not explain why they chose to rely on data from the very end of the
period of analysis, it is clear that in a case of a determination of a threat  of serious injury, such as this,
the data relating to the most recent past provided  them with an essential basis for a projection of
future conditions.
564  However, once again we recall the balancing consideration that if the most
recent data is evaluated in isolation, the resulting picture of the domestic industry may be quite
misleading.565
7.107  In the preserved peaches investigation, the data for the most recent period was quite different
from that for the rest of the period of analysis.  Of the nine injury factors cited, in almost all cases the
figure for 2000 showed a modest deterioration co mpared to the improvement during the previous
years.  The most significant decrease was in the pr oduction figure reported by the surveyed companies
which showed a 14 per cent decline in the last year of the analysis, but this came after increases of 20per cent and 39 per cent in the previous years of the period of analysis.
566  The production figure
generated by the competent authorities showed a 12 per cent decline in the last year of the period of
analysis after a decrease of 4 per cent and an increase of 21 per cent.  Most of the injury factors
considered in reaching the conclusion that the domestic industry displayed a high degree of sensitivity
showed that the condition of that industry in 2000 was better than in 1998, which itself was animprovement on 1997.  These factors appeared to be returning to their pre-1998 levels after an
unusually favourable period.
7.108  The impact of the longer term trends in the data could have been decisive on the competent
authorities' conclusion that the industry displayed a high degree of sensitivity, which was an essential
part of the determination of a threat of serious injury, as formulated in the joint opinion.  Thisimportance of the longer term trends is illustrated by the fact that the only directors who explained the
impact of the favourable longer term trends reached the conclusion that the preserved peaches
measure was not justified.
7.109  The joint opinion offers no explanation of the impact of the improvements throughout the
period of analysis on their determination of a threat of serious injury.  It offers no explanation of the
choice of 1999, or late 2000, as a benchmark for evaluation of these factors.  Instead, it assumes that
those years were an appropriate benchmark for its ev aluation of the situation of the domestic industry.
In view of these trends over the period of analysis, these explanations are essential to provide a
reasoned and adequate explanation of the conclusion that the domestic industry showed a high degree
of sensitivity, which was an essential step in the way the joint opinion made its determination of a
threat of serious injury.
7.110  There was no improvement in 2000 over 1998 in the volume and value of imports, selling
prices for the domestic industry and sales value da ta of the surveyed companies.  However, the
increase in imports in 2000 over 1998 was less than the decrease in 1998 over 1996, so that the
                                                     
563 See Argentina's rebuttal, paragraph 104, referring to charts in the technical report at pages 26, 27, 47
and 49.
564 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 137, raised by Argentina in relation to the
determination of an increase in imports and quoted above.
565 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb, paragraph 138, quoted above.
566 See Table 1 of the technical report.  CAFIM indicated that production was identical in 1999 and
2000.WT/DS238/R
Page 87
volume of imports in absolute terms actually declined over the entire period of analysis (1996-2000)
by a seventh in terms of volume and over a third in terms of value.  The average prices of imports
showed modest increases to 1998 and then a steep decline to 2000 which was inversely proportional
to the volume of imports.  These factors formed the basis of the finding that imports had the capacity
to threaten serious injury.  The average selling prices for the domestic industry showed a slightdecline to 1998 and then followed the same trend of a steeper decline to 2000.  Sales value data of the
surveyed companies showed an improvement to 1998 or 1999 and then a steep decline to 2000.
7.111  The directors viewed the most recent data for the volume and price of imports, in fact, the
period "toward the end of 2000" at the very end of the period of analysis.  They did not relate it to
data for the rest of the period of analysis but isolated it.  The joint opinion offers no explanation of the
impact of the decrease in imports over the entire period of analysis.  We have already dealt with
Argentina's arguments that they did not isolate the recent import data from the rest of the period ofanalysis at paragraphs 7.66 to 7.68.  We do not accept them in relation to the threat of serious injury
determination for the same reasons.
7.112  An alternative plausible explanation of the variations in import prices and volumes, and the
average selling prices for the domestic industry, was open on the facts.  This was that the volume of
imports represented a return to pre-1998 levels, after the effects of an unusual climatic factor.  Theincrease in imports at the end of the period of analysis continued a trend which began in 1998 but,
when viewed in the light of all the data analysed from 1996, was open to this alternative explanation.
The deceleration in the increase in imports in the last year of the period of analysis also supported this
alternative explanation.  Even if the import data for 1996 was excluded, the directors acknowledged
that the low volume of imports in 1997 was due to a bad harvest in Greece.  The data showed that therelative quantity of imports from Greece in 1997 represented almost zero and that it had recovered
more or less in line with the total increase in imports since then.
7.113  The Panel sees nothing in the joint opinion that addresses this alternative plausible
explanation.  During the investigation, it was su ggested that the increase in imports was merely a
recovery.
567  The technical team observed that imports "recovered" in 1999 and 2000, and described
the increase in supply of peaches in Greece in 1999 and the increase in exports from Greece in 1998
and 1999 as a "recovery".568 They also described a "recovery" in production in Chile in 1999 followed
by a decline.  The directors who voted in favour of the preserved peaches measure did not address it.
7.114  Viewed as a recovery after the bad Greek harvest, the behaviour of imports and domestic
prices was consistent with the pattern of the other injury factors which appeared to be returning to
their pre-1998 levels after an unusually favourable period.  The plausibility of this alternative
explanation is illustrated by the fact it was accepted by the other CNCE directors.569  We cite their
opinion only to show that the explanation was plausible, not that it was correct.
7.115  Argentina argued before the Panel that the increase was not a recovery, but it has not directed
our attention to any passage in the competent authorities' report that addressed such an explanation
and gave a reason for rejecting it.570  Argentina drew attention to the fact that the growth rate in
imports from 1998 onwards "grew at a faster rate than in 1996" but it has not shown where thiscontrast was drawn by the competent authorities no r explained how that would exclude the possibility
that the later increase was nonetheless a recovery.
571 Argentina argued that the volume of stocks in
                                                     
567 See the submission of the Chilean representation to the investigation, reflected in the technical
report, page 84.
568 See the technical report, pages 32, 58, 59 and 71.
569 See the separate opinions of Dra. Diana Tussie and Lic. Elías A. Baracat, in the Annex to
Record No. 781, Sections V.B and V.C, respectively.
570 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 115.
571 See Argentina's second oral statement, paragraph 49.WT/DS238/R
Page 88
Greece, and the ease with which they could have been poured onto the Argentine market, were
essential variables in the evaluation of the threat of serious injury.572  However, an explanation was
required as to why these levels of stocks were not part of a recovery, and none was given.  Argentina
argued that it was the overall weighing of all of the factors having a bearing on the industry that
ultimately supported the determination of threat of serious and imminent injury573 but it has not
directed our attention to any passage in the competent authorities' report that addressed the possibility
that the injury factors analysed in relation to the situation of the domestic industry were simply
returning to their pre-1998 levels.
7.116  The directors who voted in favour of the preserved peaches measure viewed the data for the
most recent period in isolation and did not acknowledge the alternative plausible explanation.  The
considerable increase in imports in 2000 and deterioration in certain injury factors – viewed in
isolation – led them to a potentially very different conclusion from an evaluation in the light of alldata before the competent authorities.  They explained their finding on the basis of the most recent
period and did not offer any explanation of that data in light of the longer term data which was before
them.  They did not seek to deal with the alternative plausible explanation, even though it was
disclosed in the technical report.
7.117  The Panel is not substituting its own opinion for th at of the competent authorities.  In fact, the
Panel has not formed its own opinion on either the situation of the domestic industry or the capacity
of imports to cause serious injury in 2001.  Rather, the Panel finds that for the reasons given above,
the explanation of the determination of a threat of serious injury was not reasoned or adequate as
required by Article 4.2(a).
(iii) Clearly imminent
7.118  Chile also argues that the purported determination of threat of serious injury did not satisfy
the definition of a "threat of serious injury" in Article 4.1(b).
574  That definition reads as follows:
"'threat of serious injury' shall be understood to mean serious injury that is clearly
imminent, in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.  A determination of the
existence of a threat of serious injury shall be based on facts and not merely onallegation, conjecture or remote possibility."
7.119  This definition refers to "serious injury" which is defined in Article 4.1(a) as follows:
"'serious injury' shall be understood to mean a significant overall impairment in the
position of a domestic industry."
7.120  Chile claims that the finding of a threat of serious injury did not demonstrate that the threat
was "clearly imminent".  That phrase has been interpreted by the Appellate Body as follows:
"(…) The word 'imminent' relates to the mo ment in time when the 'threat' is likely to
materialize.  The use of this word implies that the anticipated "serious injury" must be
on the very verge of occurring.  Moreover, we see the word 'clearly', which qualifies the
word 'imminent', as an indication that there must be a high degree of likelihood that the
anticipated serious injury will materialize in  the very near future.  We also note that
Article 4.1(b) provides that any determination of a threat of serious injury 'shall bebased on facts and not merely on allegation, conjecture or  remote possibility .'
(emphasis added)  To us, the word 'clearly' relates also to the  factual   demonstration of
                                                     
572 See  Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 82.
573 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 107.
574 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.32 and its rebuttal, paragraph 35(d).WT/DS238/R
Page 89
the existence of the 'threat'.  Thus, the phrase 'clearly imminent' indicates that, as a
matter of fact, it must be manifest that th e domestic industry is on the brink of suffering
serious injury."575
7.121  In the present case, the directors' conclusion was that that the industry showed a "high degree
of sensitivity" in circumstances which did not constitute serious injury.  Sensitivity of any degree doesnot show that serious injury is about to occur – it depends on the likelihood and imminence of the
threat.  In this case, the threat was described as the "capacity" of imports to cause serious injury.
576
7.122  The "capacity" of imports is a reference to the possibility of causing serious injury, not a
threat.  The directors purported to identify the th reat in the following paragraph of their conclusion,
but they did not indicate any degree of likelihood that serious injury would occur, let alone a high
degree of likelihood.  There was a statement that the increase in imports in the most recent period was
"sharp" but the conclusion was not drawn that this indicated that the imports that would cause seriousinjury were about to occur.  There was just an acknowledgement of the possibility.  There was no
attempt to make a projection of what was about to occur, nor a fact-based assessment of the likelihood
of the imports increasing.  In the light of the flawed temporal focus of the analysis of the data, the use
of the most recent data did not necessarily indicate the future state of imports.  In the light of the
alternative explanation that the imports were recovering to their historical levels, the most recentincrease did not necessarily indicate that they would continue to increase either at all or at the same
rate.
7.123  Argentina reminded us of another statement by the Appellate Body in US – Line Pipe  that
"serious injury does not generally occur suddenly".
577  However, this does not affect the definition of
threat of serious injury in Article 4.1(b) which requires that the serious injury be "clearly imminent".Indeed, this requirement was recalled by the Appellate Body in the passage from which Argentina
quoted.
7.124  Consequently, we find that this determination does not purport to find that there is a high
degree of likelihood that the threat would materialize in the very near future.  Therefore, we find that
the determination does not contain a finding that serious injury is clearly imminent as required byArticle 4.1(b).
(iv) Remote possibility
7.125  Chile argues that the determination of threat of serious injury was not based on facts but
merely on "conjecture or remote possibility", which is inconsistent with the definition in
Article 4.1(b).
578  The relevant conclusion (in the section headed "Causality") in the joint opinion is
reproduced at paragraph 7.88 above.
7.126  Chile describes this assertion as a "prediction" based not on supporting analysis or empirical
evidence but rather on an assumption based, in turn, on a lack of indicators.579  Argentina asserts that
it was the overall weighing of all of the factors having a bearing on the industry as set forth in the
technical report that ultimately supported the determination of threat of serious and imminent
injury.580
                                                     
575 See Appellate Body Report in US – Lamb , paragraph 125.
576 See Annex to Record No. 781, Section V.4 headed "Causality".
577 See Argentina's First Oral Statement, paragraph 53, citing the Appellate Body Report in US – Line
Pipe, paragraph 168.
578 See Chile's first written submission, paragraphs 4.32 and 4.69 and its rebuttal, paragraph 35(d).
579 See Chile's first written submission, paragraph 4.68; its rebuttal, paragraph 35(d).
580 See Argentina's first written submission, paragraph 107.WT/DS238/R
Page 90
7.127  In their conclusion, the directors acknowledge that in 2000 the domestic industry was not
suffering serious injury.  In the second paragraph, they admit the possibility that, in the future, world
production and exports might equal or be even greater than in 2000.  For this reason, they purported to
determine the existence of a threat of serious injury.
7.128  Article 4.1(b) requires a determination of threat of serious injury to be based on facts. The
directors based their determination on the possibility that the volume and prices of future world
production and exports would be at the same or higher levels than in 2000.  They state that it is based
on "the lack of any indicators" that this would not occur.
7.129  Article 4.1(b) prohibits a determination of threat of serious injury based on remote possibility.
The directors partly based their determination on a possibility that volumes and prices would be at the
same levels as in 2000, which they acknowledged did not present a threat of serious injury.  On its
own terms, this is not a determination of a threat of serious injury.  The directors do not mention anychange that they expected in the coming year which would alter the effect of production and exports,
so that they must have thought that, at the same levels, they would not present a threat of serious
injury.  They could not determine a threat of serious injury on the basis of that possibility, even if it
did materialize.  We note that this was only part of the basis of their determination.
7.130  The directors partly based their determination on the possibility that the volume and prices of
future world production and exports would be worse for the domestic industry than in 2000.  They
recognized that this possibility might not occur at  all, since they entertained the possibility that
volume and prices might be at the same levels as in 2000, which they had already determined did not
present a threat of serious injury.
7.131  In order to succeed on this claim, Chile needs to show that the possibility on which the
directors based their claim was "remote" or that it was not based on facts at all.  The record shows that
it was based on a possibility of the injury caused by future imports, but there is insufficient evidence
to conclude that that possibility was remote.  The evidence shows that the determination of the threat
was at least partly based on the existing quantities and prices of imports, and the evaluation of the
injury factors – even if this was inconsistent with Article 4.2(a).  There was no real projection fromthat evidence – which could, for example, have been based on the trends in the data – but that does
not indicate a finding not based on facts.  For these reasons, we do not find that the determination of
threat of serious injury was based not on facts but merely on "remote possibility".
7.132  In view of the above findings, we do not need to consider Chile's claims regarding other
alleged deficiencies in the methodology used by the competent authorities in their evaluation of
various injury factors, nor its claim regarding the domestic industry's "expansive readjustment" as
another factor required to be evaluated under Article 4.2(a).
7.133  In view of our findings at paragraphs 7.99, 7.117 and 7.124, the Panel finds that Argentina
acted inconsistently with Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1, 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the
Agreement on Safeguards because the competent authorities, in making their determination of the
existence of a threat of serious injury:
(a) did not evaluate, as a formal matter, all of the relevant factors having a bearing on the
situation of the domestic industry, in particular, capacity utilization;
(b) did not provide a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the facts supported their
determination; and
(c) did not find that serious injury was clearly imminent.WT/DS238/R
Page 91
7.134  The Panel does not find that the competent authorities' determination of threat of serious
injury was based not on facts but on remote possibility.
4. Causal link
7.135  Chile claims that Argentina acted inconsistently with Articles 2.1, 3.1 and 4.2(b) of the
Agreement on Safeguards in making its determination of a causal link between the increased importsand the threat of serious injury.  Given that the Panel has found that the competent authorities did not
demonstrate the existence of an increase in imports nor a threat of serious injury, there is no need for
the Panel to make an assessment of the determination of the existence of a causal link.  In view of
those findings, it would be impossible for us to c ontinue and find that the competent authorities
demonstrated a causal link between increased imports that did not occur and a threat of serious injury
that did not exist.
581  However, the Panel can expeditiously produce a record of the competent
authorities' evaluation of the causal link, which is consistent with its role as  the sole trier of fact inthis proceeding under the DSU.  That record is set out below.
7.136  The section headed "Causality" in the joint opinion, in its entirety, reads as follows:
"Paragraph 4.2(b) of the WTO Agreement on Safeguards stipulates that the serious
injury determination for the purposes of applying a safeguard measure shall not be
made "unless [the] investigation demonstrates, on the basis of objective evidence, theexistence of the causal link between increased imports of the product concerned and
serious injury or threat thereof".  It also states that the injury caused by factors other
than increased imports shall not be attributed to increased imports.
As concluded in the relevant section, there are signs of injury in the domestic industry
which, while it does not yet qualify as serious injury within the meaning of Article4.1(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards, show a high degree of sensitivity to the
change taking place in the market as a result of imports.  The behaviour of imports
observed towards the end of 2000 shows that they have the capacity, in terms of price
and volume, to cause serious injury.
The lack of any indicators in the internat ional market showing that the volume and
prices of world production and exports, both in the current year and in future years,
would not equal or even exceed the levels  for the year 2000, leads to the conclusion
of threat of serious injury within the meaning of Article 4.1(b).
The import situation and the degree of variation and sensitivity of the indicators listed
and described in Section V.2 prove the existence of a causal link between the
investigated imports and the threat of serious injury."
582
7.137  The joint opinion does not contain any other references to the causal link condition.  The
body of the technical report contains no discussion of the causal link, except statements in Part VI
which are statements of interested parties during th e safeguard investigation.  One is a statement by
the applicant, CAFIM, that:
"… if imports, irrespective of their origin, continue in the conditions which prevailed
prior to the application of the safeguard clause with provisional duties, in particular inrelation to the prices of imports from the northern hemisphere, they will cause injury
which will prove impossible to remedy and lead to the virtual destruction of domestic
                                                     
581 This was the approach favoured by the Appellate Body in Argentina – Footwear (EC),
paragraph 145.
582 See Annex to Record No. 781, S ection V.A.4 headed "Causality".WT/DS238/R
Page 92
production of peaches for processing, as well as of the processing industry itself. It is
for this reason that we are requesting the application of definitive safeguard measures
… since we feel that the grounds established in the Agreement on Safeguards have all
been fully satisfied."583
7.138  Two domestic producers also made statements which could be interpreted as listing a variety
of factors causing injury.584  The other relevant statements in Part VI of the technical report were
made by the European Commission.  It said that:
"… with regard to the causal link between increased imports and the threat of serious
injury, Argentina has not provided any eviden ce of a link between the possible injury
and the said imports"; and
"… the key sectoral indicators, such as the level of domestic producer profits,
increase in production levels, use of installed capacity, exports, average labourproductivity indicators and actual and planned investment volumes, discount any
form of actual injury or threat of future injury caused by the entry into the country of
imported products."
585
7.139  Neither party has directed the Panel's attention to any additional passages in the competent
authorities' report which could show how they made their determination of a causal link.
5. Judicial economy
7.140  Article 11 of the DSU provides that the Panel's function is to assist the DSB in discharging its
responsibilities under the DSU and the covered agreements.  It does not require us to examine all the
legal claims made by Chile.  Our findings should assist the DSB in making the recommendations or in
giving the rulings provided for in the covered agreements.  We are mindful of the approach of theAppellate Body in US – Wool Shirts and Blouses  that we need only address those claims which we
consider necessary for the resolution of the matter between the parties.
586  At the same time, we are
mindful of the balancing consideration expressed by the same body in Australia – Salmon  that a panel
has to address those claims on which a finding is necessary in order to enable the DSB to make
sufficiently precise recommendations and rulings so as to allow for prompt compliance by a Memberwith those recommendations and rulings in order to ensure effective resolution of disputes to the
benefit of all Members.
587
7.141  In view of our findings at paragraphs 7.35, 7.82 and 7.133 that Argentina acted inconsistently
with Article XIX:1(a) of GATT 1994 and Articles 2.1, 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on
Safeguards, we can conclude that the preserved peaches measure lacks a legal basis under the relevant
covered agreements.  Further findings on Chile's other claims cannot alter that conclusion and would
not further assist the DSB in making sufficiently precise recommendations to allow for promptcompliance by Argentina with those recommendations .  Accordingly, the Panel chooses to exercise
judicial economy and declines to rule on the claims made under Articles 2.1 and 4.2(b) of the
Agreement on Safeguards regarding the causal link, and under Articles 3, 5.1 and 12.2 of the
Agreement on Safeguards, regarding the published report, the permissible extent of application of the
measure, and notification, respectively.
                                                     
583 See the technical report, Part VI.1, page 91.
584 See the technical report, pages 77 and 78.
585 See the technical report, pages 88 and 93.
586 See Appellate Body Report in US – Wool Shirts and Blouses , page 19; DSR 1997:I, at p. 340.
587 See Appellate Body Report in Australia – Salmon , paragraph 223.WT/DS238/R
Page 93
7.142  Chile requests the Panel to rule on all of the claims presented "in order to ensure that
Argentina does not continue to violate these agreements as it has done".588  Chile did not offer any
explanation as to why ruling on all claims would achieve this objective.  Furthermore, we must
presume that all Members will comply with their obligations under the covered agreements in good
faith, and we have seen no evidence that Argentina will continue to violate the agreements at issue inthis dispute.  The Panel therefore declines to agree to Chile's request.
VIII.  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
8.1 In the light of our findings, we conclude that the Argentine preserved peaches measure was
imposed inconsistently with certain provisions of the Agreement on Safeguards and GATT 1994.  In
particular:
(a) Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT
1994 by failing to demonstrate the existence of unforeseen developments as required;
(b) Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT
1994 and Articles 2.1 and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards by failing to make a
determination of an increase in imports, in absolute or relative terms, as required;
(c) Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT
1994 and Articles 2.1, 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards because thecompetent authorities, in their determinati on of the existence of a threat of serious
injury:
(i) did not evaluate all of the relevant factors having a bearing on the situation of
the domestic industry;
(ii) did not provide a reasoned and adequate explanation of how the facts
supported their determination; and
(iii) did not find that serious injury was clearly imminent.
8.2 The Panel does not find that Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under
Articles 2.1 and 4.1(b) of the Agreement on Safeguards  by basing a finding of the existence of a threat
of serious injury on an allegation, conjecture or remote possibility.
8.3 In light of these conclusions, we decline to rule on Chile's claims that:
(a) Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under Article XIX:1(a) of GATT
1994 because the facts before the competent authorities showed that the alleged
unforeseen developments were not unforeseen;
(b) Argentina acted inconsistently with its obligations under Article 3 of the Agreement
on Safeguards by failing to include in its published report adequate and sufficient
findings on all pertinent issues of fact and law;
(c) Argentina acted inconsistently with Articles 2.1 and 4.2(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards in its analysis of a possible causal link between the alleged increased
imports and the alleged threat of serious injury;
                                                     
588 See Chile's first written submission, final paragraph and its rebuttal, paragraph 72.WT/DS238/R
Page 94
(d) the level and formulation of the definitive preserved peaches measure are inconsistent
with Article 5.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards because they exceed the extent
necessary to prevent or remedy the alleged threat of serious injury and to facilitate
adjustment; and
(e) Argentina acted inconsistently with Article 12.2 of the Agreement on Safeguards
because its notification to the Committee on Safeguards of its finding of alleged
threat of serious injury as a result of alleged increased imports failed to include
evidence substantiating that finding.
8.4 Under Article 3.8 of the DSU, in cases where there is infringement by a Member of its
obligations assumed under a covered agreement, such action is considered prima facie to constitute a
case of nullification or impairment of benefits under that agreement.  We have seen no evidence in
these proceedings that would rebut Chile's prima facie case against Argentina.  Accordingly, weconclude that to the extent that Argentina has acted inconsistently with the provisions of the
Agreement on Safeguards and GATT 1994, as described in paragraph 8.1, it has nullified or impaired
the benefits accruing to Chile under those two agreements.
8.5 We therefore recommend that the Dispute Settlement Body request Argentina to bring its
preserved peaches measure into conformity with its obligations under the Agreement on Safeguardsand GATT 1994.WT/DS238/R
Page 95
IX. ANNEX
A. ABBREVIATIONS USED FOR DISPUTE SE TTLEMENT CASES REFERRED TO IN THE REPORT
SHORT TITLE FULL TITLE
Argentina – Footwear (EC) Panel Report, Argentina – Safeguard Measures on Imports of Footwear,
WT/DS121/R, adopted 12 January 2000, as modified by the Appellate Body
Report, WT/DS121/AB/R, DSR 2000:II, 575.
Argentina – Footwear (EC) Appellate Body Report, Argentina – Safeguard Measures on Imports of
Footwear , WT/DS121/AB/R, adopted 12 January 2000, DSR 2000:I, 515.
Australia – Salmon Appellate Body Report, Australia – Measures Affecting Importation of Salmon ,
WT/DS18/AB/R, adopted 6 November 1998, DSR 1998:VIII, 3327.
Chile – Price Band System Panel Report, Chile – Price Band System and Safeguard Measures Relating to
Certain Agricultural Products , WT/DS207/R, 3 May 2002, adopted
23 October 2002, as modified by the Appellate Body Report, WT/DS207AB/R.
India – Patents (US) Appellate Body Report, India – Patent Protection for Pharmaceutical and
Agricultural Chemical Products , WT/DS50/AB/R, adopted 16 January 1998,
DSR 1998:I, 9.
Korea – Dairy Panel Report, Korea – Definitive Safeguard Measure on Imports of Certain Dairy
Products , WT/DS98/R and Corr.1, adopted 12 January 2000, as modified by the
Appellate Body Report, WT/DS98/AB/R, DSR 2000:I, 49.
Korea – Dairy Appellate Body Report, Korea – Definitive Safeguard Measure on Imports of
Certain Dairy Products , WT/DS98/AB/R, adopted 12 January 2000,
DSR 2000:I, 3.
US – Cotton Yarn Appellate Body Report, United States – Transitional Safeguard Measure on
Combed Cotton Yarn from Pakistan , WT/DS192/AB/R, adopted
5 November 2001.
US – Fur Felt Hats Report on the Withdrawal by the United States of a Tariff Concession underArticle XIX of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade , GATT/CP/106,
adopted 22 October 1951.
US – Hot-Rolled Steel Panel Report, United States – Anti-Dumping Measures on Certain Hot-Rolled
Steel Products from Japan , WT/DS184/R, adopted 23 August 2001 as modified
by the Appellate Body Report, WT/DS184/AB/R.
US – Lamb Panel Report, United States – Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh, Chilled
or Frozen Lamb Meat from New Zealand and Australia , WT/DS177/R,
WT/DS178/R, adopted 16 May 2001, as modified by the Appellate Body Report,
WT/DS177/AB/R, WT/DS178/AB/R.
US – Lamb Appellate Body Report, United States – Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh,
Chilled or Frozen Lamb Meat from New Zealand and Australia ,
WT/DS177/AB/R, WT/DS178/AB/R, adopted 16 May 2001.
US – Line Pipe Panel Report, United States – Definitive Safeguard Measures on Imports of
Circular Welded Carbon Quality Line Pipe from Korea , WT/DS202/R, adopted
8 March 2002, as modified by the Appellate Body Report, WT/DS202/AB/R.WT/DS238/R
Page 96
SHORT TITLE FULL TITLE
US – Line Pipe Appellate Body Report, United States – Definitive Safeguard Measures on
Imports of Circular Welded Carbon Quality Line Pipe from Korea ,
WT/DS202/AB/R, adopted 8 March 2002.
US – Wheat Gluten Panel Report, United States – Definitive Safeguard Measures on Imports of Wheat
Gluten from the European Communities , WT/DS166/R, adopted 19 January 2001,
as modified by the Appellate Body Report, WT/DS166/AB/R.
US – Wheat Gluten Appellate Body Report, United States – Definitive Safeguard Measures on
Imports of Wheat Gluten from the European Communities , WT/DS166/AB/R,
adopted 19 January 2001.
US – Wool Shirts andBlousesAppellate Body Report, United States – Measure Affecting Imports of Woven
Wool Shirts and Blouses from India , WT/DS33/AB/R and Corr.1, adopted
23 May 1997, DSR 1997:I, 323.
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