PRESS/59
18November 1996
NORECOVERY INSIGHT THIS YEAR FOR WORLD BEEF MARKET
SAYS WTO SECRETARIAT REPORT
Theworld market forbeefisinadepressed statewithprices sharply lower inthemajor
markets, andnorecovery isinsight thisyear. Thekeyquestions overhanging themarket arethe
impact ofthe"mad cow" disease oninternational trade andthepaceofcattle liquidation inthe
United States. Offering possible respite toexporters isexpected strong import demand from Japan,
Korea andtheRussian Federation.
These areamong thefindings contained inWTO 'sannual report TheInternational Market
ForMeats 1995/96 today. Thereport, prepared bytheSecretariat inaccordance withthe
International Bovine Meat Agreement, presents asummary oftheinternational situation and
outlook forbovine meatandspecific elements oftheworld beefeconomy onacountry-by-country
basis aswellassummaries ofthesituation andoutlook forpigmeat, poultry meatandsheepmeat.
Among thehighlights ofthereport arethefollowing:
- IntheEuropean Communities, beefconsumption hasdropped sharply since the
outbreak ofthe"mad cow" crisis withconsumers turning tochicken, porkand
lamb. ECintervention stocks, which were virtually zeroatthebeginning ofthe
year, havebegun tobuild upagain. TheECisintheprocess ofimplementing a
number ofmeasures torestore consumer confidence andtorebalance thebeef
market.
- TheUnited States isexpected tobecome anetexporter ofbeefinvolume terms
thisyearforthefirsttimesince 1945 asaresult oflowdomestic prices and
favourable exchange ratemovements.
- Lowbeefprices intheUnited States havecontributed toAustralia andNew
Zealand notbeing abletotakefulladvantage ofwider market access forbeefin
theUnited States resulting from theUruguay Round. Australian producers also
suffered from drought. Ontheother hand, NewZealand hasbeenabletoraiseits
market share inKorea andJapan, inpartattheexpense ofAustralia.
96-4888 MOREPRESS/59
Page2/3
- InSouth America, Argentina 'sbeefindustry isgoing through adifficult phase asa
result ofadverse weather conditions, declining domestic consumption andlower
shipments totheEC,itsmajor overseas customer, duetothe"mad cow" crisis.
Ontheother hand, beefexports ofBrazil andUruguay areexpected toexpand.
- InAsia, beefimports ofKorea andJapan areexpected tocontinue togrow at
double-digit rates. Thisyear, Japan isexpected totakeoverasthenumber one
beefimporter intheworld, aposition heldformany years bytheUnited States.
- IntheWTO, twopanels havebeenestablished thisyeartolookinto,respectively,
complaints bytheUnited States andCanada against ECmeasures prohibiting the
importation oflivestock andmeatfrom livestock thathavebeentreated with
substances having ahormonal action. Thepanel requested bytheUnited States
wasestablished inMay, andthatofCanada inOctober.
TheInternational Markets forMeat 1995/96 isnowavailable inEnglish from theWTO
Secretariat, Price: SwF15.- TheFrench andSpanish editions willbeavailable shortly.
WORLD BEEF TRADE ESTIMATE FOR 1996
Major importers Major exporters
Country 1995
('000tons)1996
('000tons)1996/95
(%Change)Country 1995
('000tons)1996
('000tons)1996/95
(%Change)
Japan* 940 1,030 10 Australia* 1,090 1,080 -1
United States 954 943 -1 EC(15)* 1,006 1,000 -
EC(15) 460 450 -2 United States 826 962 16½
Russia 420 440 5 New Zealand 522 510 -2½
Brazil 300 250 -16½ Argentina 513 425 -17
Korea 197 230 17 Brazil 210 290 38
Canada 256 210 -18 Canada 224 285 27
Egypt 145 150 3½ Uruguay 143 180 26
Notes: Beef andveal, inmetric tons, carcass weight equivalent.
*WTO Secretariat estimates.
Source: AMLC, FAO, UKMeat andLivestock Commission, USDA, WTO.
MOREPRESS/59
Page4
NOTE TOEDITORS:
TheInternational Bovine Meat Agreement entered intoeffect on1January 1995. It
replaced theGATT Arrangement Regarding Bovine Meat (1980-1994). Thefollowing areParties
totheAgreement: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, theEuropean
Communities (15), Japan, NewZealand, Norway, Paraguay, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland,
theUnited States andUruguay.
Theprimary objectives oftheAgreement, likeitspredecessor, aretopromote the
expansion, liberalization andstability oftheinternational meatandlivestock market byimproving
theinternational framework ofworld trade tothebenefit ofconsumers andproducers, importers
andexporters; toencourage greater international cooperation inallaspects affecting trade in
bovine meatandliveanimals; andtosecure additional benefits fortheinternational trade of
developing countries inbovine meatandliveanimals.
END