G/AG/GEN/181  
 
16 March 2021  
(21-2161) Page: 1/6 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL  
97TH MEETING OF THE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE  
29-30 MARCH 2021  
 
"COVID -19 AND AGRICULTURE"  
The following submission, dated 15 March 2021, is being circulated at the request of the International 
Grains Council (IGC).  
 
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1  FOR GRAINS, OILSEEDS AND RICE, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS POINT  TO 
CONTINUED RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPANSION OF TRADE  
1.1.  The International Grains Council’s latest five-year supply and demand p rojections for the major 
grains explains why there should be no complacency regarding productivity and trade facilitation to 
sustain the global balance sheet and to meet the demand from importing countries.  
1.2.  The following projections are a possible supply a nd demand scenario for the next five -year 
period to 2025/26, taking account of a number of broad assumptions, historical trends and expert 
analyses of demand trends in a post COVID -19 era.  
1.3.  If growth in average yields matches recent trends, and assuming normal weather, global grain 
(wheat plus coarse grains) production is projected at successive records during the next five years 
to 2025/26. This will be sufficient to keep pace with projected demand growth, but will allow little 
rebuilding of sto cks, with the ratio of total grains stocks -to-use tightening a little.  
1.4.  For wheat, global outturns (chart 1) are projected to reach consecutive record highs during the 
next five seasons. With the strongest net production gains seen in Argentina, Ukraine and  the 
European Union , global output in 2025/26 is placed at 822 m t, up by 57 m compared to 2020/21. 
Assuming sustained levels of government support for food grains, wheat acreage in China is 
projected to remain high over the next five years which, combined  with steady productivity gains, 
could see that country overtaking the E uropean Union as the world’s largest grower towards the end 
of the forecast period. The inventories in the major exporters show only a small gain, as modest 
recoveries from below -norma l levels in the E uropean Union and the Russian Federation are partly 
countered by slight drawdowns elsewhere, including in the  United States of America . 
1.5.  While the rate of stock depletion for maize (corn) is projected to slow compared with the recent 
season s, the outlook for world maize supply and demand (chart 2) remains relatively tight. In 
comparison, world balance sheets for other grains remain relatively comfortable, with further wheat 
stock accumulation projected to new peaks, and only minor changes ov er the baseline for other 
grains.  
1.6.  International grain trade is seen expanding by an average rate of 2% annually, led by higher 
shipments of wheat and maize. While annual increases are expected to be slower than in recent 
years, rising feed needs will conti nue to drive growth in maize shipments, with China a regular buyer 
of sizeable volumes. Expanding milling wheat imports account for much of the growth in wheat trade.  
1.7.  For soybeans (chart 3), assuming area gains and improvements in productivity, global 
production is predicted to also hit successive peaks during the medium -term, but with growth likely G/AG/GEN/181  
 
- 2 - 
 
  to slow after an initially solid increase in 2021/22. The markets in Asia and the Americas will continue 
to shape the pattern of soymeal demand during the next five years, with food and industrial 
(biodiesel) sectors also set to contribute to growth in soy oil usage. A modest uptrend in world 
inventories is anticipated, tied to gains in major exporters.  
1.8.  World soybeans trade is set to grow progressively, albeit at  a slower pace than in the past, 
with China's share of the world total staying at about 60%. Other buyers in Asia are set to secure a 
higher share of the total, while the E uropean Union will remain an important market given the 
likelihood of tight local ra peseed supplies. Brazil will remain the preeminent supplier.  
1.9.  World rice production (chart 4) is anticipated to trend higher in the next five years. Gains will 
predominantly be due to improved yields as prospects for area growth in the major rice producing  
regions of Asia appear limited. By contrast, while remaining a relatively small producing region, 
sub-Saharan African output is expected to grow especially quickly as policy initiatives to promote 
production encourage planting.  
1.10.  While population growth wil l continue to underpin larger food requirements through 
to 2025/26, changing consumer preferences in Far East Asia, the world’s biggest consuming region, 
may contain growth in food uptake of rice. This includes China, where stocks are tentatively seen 
broadly stabilising in the coming years amid official efforts to better manage inventories and 
maintain crop quality. Nevertheless, global inventories are likely to continue growing, led by gains 
in India. Trade is projected to expand as larger requirements in  sub-Saharan Africa underpin 
demand, while India is seen remaining the world’s biggest exporter.  
 
 
 
  
  G/AG/GEN/181  
 
- 3 - Chart 1: Wheat Medium -term Supply and Demand summary  
        
y/y change   
19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  24/25  25/26  previous   
average   
est. f'cast  proj. proj. proj. proj. proj. five year  21/22  21/22 -         
average*   
25/26  
Yield (t/ha)       3.5        3.4        3.5        3.6        3.6        3.7        3.7  0.7%  3.8%  1.7%  
Area (m ha)      217       224       221       221       221       221       221  0.0%  -1.5%  -0.3%  
Production (m t)      763       765       782       792       802       812       822  0.7%  2.3%  1.4%  
Consumption (m t)      746       752       769       786       797       807       817  0.9%  2.3%  1.7%  
  of which:                      
  food 523 531 538 547 556 564 572 1.3%  1.4%  1.5%  
  feed 139 138 146 152 154 155 156 -0.4%  5.7%  2.5%  
  industrial  24 23 23 23 23 23 23 0.8%  0.1%  0.1%  
Trade (Jul/Jun, m t)  184 186 183 186 188 191 194 2.4%  -1.6%  0.8%  
Stocks (m t)  279 292 305 311 316 321 326 .. .. .. 
  y/y change  + 17 + 13 + 13 + 6 + 5 + 5 + 5 .. .. .. 
  Major exporters**  64 61 64 63 63 64 66 .. .. .. 
Notes:  
* 2016/17 – 2020/21 . 
** Argentina, Australia, Canada, E uropean Union, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine,  and the Uni ted States of America .  
  G/AG/GEN/181  
 
- 4 - Chart 2: Maize medium -term Supply and Demand Summary  
 
              y/y change   
19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  24/25  25/26  previous   
average   
est. f'cast  proj. proj. proj. proj. proj. five year  21/22  21/22 -         
average*   
25/26  
  Yield (t/ha)       5.8    5.8      5.9      6.0        6.1        6.2        6.2  1.5%  2.6%  1.5%  
  Area (m ha)      194       198       199       201       202       203       204  0.9%  0.7%  0.7%  
  Production (m t)   1,124    1,146    1,185    1,213    1,235    1,256    1,277  2.4%  3.4%  2.2%  
  Consumption (m t)   1,153    1,169    1,196    1,218    1,241    1,262    1,283  3.2%  2.3%  1.9%  
    of which:                      
    food 130 131 133 135 136 138 139 3.0%  1.2%  1.2%  
    feed 691 696 706 717 730 742 755 4.2%  1.4%  1.6%  
    industrial  293 302 315 324 331 337 343 1.5%  4.2%  2.6%  
    of which ethanol  164 172 181 187 191 195 197 1.1%  5.6%  2.9%  
  Trade (Jul/Jun, m t)  174 185 187 190 194 200 206 6.4%  0.8%  2.2%  
  Stocks (m t)  298 275 264 258 253 247 242 .. .. .. 
    y/y change  - 29 - 23 - 11 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 5 .. .. .. 
    Major exporters**  64 58 61 66 70 74 78 .. .. .. 
Notes:  
* 2016/17 – 2020/21 . 
** Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine,  and the United States of A merica.  
  G/AG/GEN/181  
 
- 5 - Chart 3: Soybean medium -term Supply and Demand Summary  
        
y/y change   
19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  24/25  25/26  previous   
average   
est. f'cast  proj. proj. proj. proj. proj. five year  21/22  21/22 -         
average*   
25/26  
  Yield (t/ha)       2.8        2.9        2.9        2.9        3.0        3.0        3.0  2.1%  0.6%  0.8%  
  Area (m ha)      122       126       132       133       135       136       137  1.0%  4.4%  1.7%  
  Production (m t)      338       365       384       390       398       405       413  3.1%  5.0%  2.5%  
  Consumption (m t)      352       369       379       388       397       405       412  3.1%  2.7%  2.2%  
    of which:                      
    food 21 22 22 22 23 23 23 3.7%  2.3%  1.7%  
    feed 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 3.1%  0.5%  0.6%  
    crush  307 323 333 341 349 357 363 3.1%  2.9%  2.3%  
  Trade (Jul/Jun, m t)  170 168 171 174 177 180 183 4.8%  1.7%  1.7%  
  Stocks (m t)  49 45 49 51 52 52 53 .. .. .. 
    y/y change  - 13 - 4 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 0 + 1 .. .. .. 
    Major exporters**  20 12 15 17 18 19 20 .. .. .. 
Notes:  
* 2016/17 – 2020/21.  
** Argentina, Brazil,  and the United States of America .  
  G/AG/GEN/181  
 
- 6 - Chart 4: Rice medium -term Supply and Demand Summary  
        
y/y change   
19/20  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  24/25  25/26  previous   
average   
est. f'cast  proj. proj. proj. proj. proj. five year  21/22  21/22 - 
        Average*   25/26  
  Yield (t/ha)       3.1        3.1        3.1        3.1        3.2        3.2        3.2  0.7%  0.5%  0.6%  
  Area (m ha)      160       162       163       163       163       163       164  0.3%  0.2%  0.2%  
  Production (m t)      497       503       507       511       516       519       523  1.0%  0.7%  0.8%  
  Consumption (m t)      497       501       505       510       514       518       521  1.2%  0.8%  0.8%  
  Trade (Jul/Jun, m t)  42 45 47 48 49 50 51 3.0%  4.6%  2.5%  
  Stocks (m t)  176 178 181 182 184 186 188 .. .. .. 
    y/y change  + 0 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 .. .. .. 
    Major exporters**  41 43 44 45 46 47 49 .. .. .. 
Notes:  
* 2016/17 – 2020/21 . 
** India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States of America,  and Viet Nam. 
Figures for production, consumption, trade,  and stocks are milled basis.  
 
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