G/AG/GEN/227  
 
22 September 2023  
(23-6357) Page: 1/3 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL  
106TH MEETING OF THE WTO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE  
27-28 SEPTEMBER 2023  
Submission  by the International Grains Council (IGC)  
The following submission, dated 22 September 202 3, is being circulated at the request of the 
International Grains Council (IGC).  
 
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1  GRAINS AND OILSEEDS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS  
1.  All figures are taken from September 2023 Grain Market Report; month -on-month  (m/m) 
changes, where applicable, refer to changes compared to August report; figures in brackets refer to 
prior season.  
2  FORECAST CAMPAIGN 2023/24  
2.  The forecast for global total grains  (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2023/24 is raised 
by 1% on year -on-year (y/y) at 2,294  million tonnes.  This includes expected larger maize 
(+ 60 million tonnes ) and sorghum (+  5 million) outturns, but with declines for wheat 
(- 21 million tonnes ), barley ( - 10 million tonnes ) and oats ( - 4 million tonnes ). These figures mainly 
reflect the latest harvest data, which included good results in the Russia n Federation  and Ukraine, 
as well downgrades related to recent difficult weather in Australia , Canada and Argentina. Tied to 
an anticipated recovery in feed and industrial uptake, paired with a continued upswing in food 
demand, grains world consumption is seen at a record 2,305  million tonnes  (+ 2%). End -season 
inventories are predicted to dip by 2%, to 588  million tonnes , including declines in wheat and barley. 
However, exporter carryovers are seen 8% up y/y, inflated mainly by an accumulation in US maize 
stocks. World imports are projected to decline for a third successive year, seen 4% lower, at  
410 million tonnes , with trade recessing at 196 m illion tonnes . 
3.  Owing to a bigger global harvest and the second consecutive annual decline in uptake, soyabean  
reserves are seen rising by almost one -fifth y/y in 2022/23. Near -entirely reflective of potenti ally 
bigger South American harvests, world production is predicted to expand by 8% y/y to a new peak 
at 396 m illion tonnes . Underpinned by gains in key processors, chiefly Argentina, consumption is 
seen recovering strongly, with further modest growth in in ventories foreseen. Trade is projected 
steady y/y in 2023/24.  
4.  Due to mostly offsetting changes, the Council 's 2023/24 rice production outlook is held steady, 
at 523  million tonnes  (+ 2%), linked to bigger outturns in Asia and the Americas. With consumption 
seen little -changed y/y, inventories are projected steady, at 168  million tonnes , as modest gains in 
the five major exporters contrast with falls elsewhere. Trade in 2024 (Jan uary/December ) could 
decline further to 51 m illion tonnes  (- 3%), in large part reflecting restricted Indian exports.  
3  RECENT MARKET MOVEMENT  
5.  With export price fluctuations less marked compared to recent months, the IGC GOI firmed 
slightly, underscored by advances in maize and rice. The IGC GOI wheat  sub-Index edged higher, G/AG/GEN/227  
 
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  mainly because net gains in the U nited States and Australia more than offset renewed weakness in 
Russian quotations.  
6.  With increases at all origins, the IGC GOI maize  sub-Index spiked by 9%. US price strength 
mainly reflected tightening nearby logistics, wh ile Brazilian values turned higher on solid demand.  
7.  Predominantly because of recent declines in US quotations, tied to concerns about soft export 
demand, the IGC GOI soyabeans  sub-Index dipped by a net 1%.  
8.  The IGC GOI rice sub-Index touched a near -15 year peak, up by 1% m/m, with markets 
generally underpinned by trade restrictions in India.  
  G/AG/GEN/227  
 
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  ANNEX: WORLD ESTIMATES  
  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  
      est. f'cast  
million tonnes        17.08  21.09  
TOTAL GRAINS a)            
Production  2,227 2,296 2,266 2,294 2,294 
Trade  427 426 428 411 410 
Consumption  2,243 2,297 2,268 2,307 2,305 
Carryover stocks  602 600 599 584 588 
 year/year change  -15 -1 -2   -11 
 Major exporters b) 132 144 145 149 154 
            
WHEAT            
Production  774 780 805 784 783 
Trade  191 198 208 197 196 
Consumption  773 784 795 805 803 
Carryover stocks  277 273 283 261 263 
 year/year change  0 -3 9   -20 
 Major exporters b) 59 61 66 52 55 
            
MAIZE (CORN)            
Production  1,136 1,225 1,162 1,221 1,222 
Trade  188 180 180 172 172 
Consumption  1,155 1,217 1,174 1,207 1,208 
Carryover stocks  279 287 275 288 289 
 year/year change  -19 8 -12   14 
 Major exporters c) 43 53 52 78 79 
            
  20/21  21/22  22/23  23/24  
    est. f'cast  proj.  
        17.08  21.09  
SOYABEANS            
Production  371 357 367 398 396 
Trade  159 156 169 171 169 
Consumption  370 366 360 388 388 
Carryover stocks  55 46 54 64 62 
 year/year change  1 -10 8   8 
 Major exporters d) 17 11 12 18 16 
            
million tonnes (milled basis)            
RICE            
Production  509 515 514 523 523 
Trade  51 55 52 51 51 
Consumption  510 521 522 523 523 
Carryover stocks  182 176 168 170 168 
 year/year change  -1 -6 -7   0 
 Major exporters e) 49 44 40 43 41 
Figures may not add due to rounding. All calculations are based on unrounded figures.  
a) Wheat and coarse grains.  
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine, 
United  States of America.  
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, United S tates of America.  
d) Argentina, Brazil, United S tates of America.  
e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United S tates of America , Viet  Nam. 
 
 
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