# Co-designing Impact Chains to assess people's habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) and adapt to multiple climatic risks

Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi, Marc Zebish, Gilles Drogue, Simon Devin

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Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi, Marc Zebish, Gilles Drogue, Simon Devin. Co-designing Impact Chains to assess people's habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) and adapt to multiple climatic risks. EGU General Assembly 2025, Apr 2025, Vienna & Online, Austria. hal-05062105

HAL Id: hal-05062105

https://hal.science/hal-05062105v1

Submitted on 9 May 2025

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# Co-designing Impact Chains to assess people's habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) and adapt to multiple climatic risks

SILVIA DE ANGELI (1,2), STEFANO TERZI (3), MARC ZEBISCH (3), GILLES DROGUE (2), SIMON DEVIN (1)

(1) Université de Lorraine, CNRS, LIEC, F-54000 Nancy, France | (2) Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, F-57000 Metz, France | (3) Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy

contacts: silvia.de-angeli@univ-lorraine.fr

## 1. THE CONTEXT

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### Habi(Li)ter

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### Habi(Li)ter - "Co-defining the habitability of Lorraine under climate change and future multi-risk conditions"

**Start date:** 1.10.2024 | **Duration:** 24 months
**Funded by:** Lorraine Université d'Excellence, Impact Project "EPHemeris - Earth and Planet Habitability"

**GOAL**

Better understand how the habitability (i.e. the suitability of an environment to support human life by providing sustainable living conditions) in the Vosges Massif will be affected by the impact of climate change and the resulting risk.

**EXPECTED OUTCOMES**

* Co-definition of habitability by developing a set of indicators and methods to measure them

* Development of a conceptual framework based to clarify the interaction between climate, socio-economic factors, and risks, and their impact on habitability

**METHODS**

* Transdisciplinary approaches

* Use of Risk Storylines and Impact Chains

**CASE STUDY AREA**

* The Vosges Massif is a french mountainous region with moderate peaks, encompassing diverse ecosystems

* Climate shifts, such as warmer winters, affect key industries, like tourism, agriculture, and forestry

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## 2. IMPACT CHAINS (ICs)

The Habi(Li)ter conceptual framework builds on the Climate Impact Chains (ICs) model (Zebisch et al., 2022), a cause-effect-based approach used to map pathways of climate-related risks.

* Factors and processes are categorized under hazard, vulnerability, or exposure, with cascading effects treated as intermediate impacts

* Developing these chains helps identify adaptation options

### ICs in Habi(Li)ter are informed by

1. Expert knowledge gathered through interviews with specialists in relevant fields

2. Risk Storylines created by non-academic actors in workshops

3. Supporting data from literature, news sources, and statistical/spatial analyses

## 3. INTERVIEW METHODOLOGY

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* 6 interviews conducted so far

* experts from multiple domains

* different sectors analysed (water system, forest ecosystem, agriculture and silviculture)

## 4. INTERPLAY BETWEEN RISK FACTORS IN THE VOSGES MOUNTAINS - EXAMPLES

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Key impacts of climate change

on the **hydrological system** of the Massif and consequences on the water resource availability

Key impacts of climate change on the **forest ecosystem**

## 5. KEY FINDINGS

* **Changes in precipitation seasonality** (more rainfall in winter, less in summer) and **rising temperatures** have been identified by most interviewees as key climatic drivers contributing to **increased summer drought**

* A major factor influencing **physical vulnerability to drought** is the region's **pedological and geological context**: the impermeable granite of the High Vosges causes rapid runoff, while the porous sandstone of the Lower Vosges enables deep infiltration, ensuring more consistent river flows year-round

* **Forestry management**, including the rapid replacement of dead species with monocultures, has been highlighted as **both a strength and a weakness** in terms of adaptation capacity

* **Wetland and peatland restoration** has been frequently cited as a key adaptation strategy to reduce drought impacts on vegetation and to regulate the microclimate

* The main chains of impact identified (**squared in red in box #4**) include:

- **Trees weakening**, leading to greater susceptibility to pests and higher wildfire risk

- **Reduced summer stream flows**, with repercussions for tourism, fishing, and waterway navigability

## 6. NEXT STEPS

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Include insights from **non-academic actors** (in the form of **Storylines**) in the ICs

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Link IC impacts and risks to **habitability dimensions** to evaluate how they can affect them

To know more about the project

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## References

GIZ and EURAC 2017: Risk Supplement to the Vulnerability Sourcebook. Guidance on how to apply the Vulnerability Sourcebook's approach with the new IPCC AR5 concept of climate risk. Bonn: GIZ.

Zebisch, M., Terzi, S., Pittore, M., Renner, K., & Schneiderbauer, S. (2022). Climate impact chains—a conceptual modelling approach for climate risk assessment in the context of adaptation planning. In Climate adaptation modelling (pp. 217-224). Cham: Springer International Publishing.