"En las zonas de sacrificio, la gente paga los costos ambientales de los proyectos industriales, pero no ve los beneficios, no ve que se invierta en ellos las regalías de los proyectos. Tienen la sensación de que las ganancias no se quedan en el lugar. Entonces, el problema no es la industria en sí. La industria siempre puede generar riqueza y empleo. El problema son los impactos ambientales.

(...)

Entonces pareciera que el extractivismo de las renovables está reemplazando el extractivismo de los combustibles fosiles y de las industrias basadas en combustibles fósiles. No es sustentable una transición energética sin diversificación económica, sin alternativas productivas para los habitantes de esas zonas." (Informant C1, June 16, 2021).

In contrast, the vision of policymakers emphasizes the opportunities arising from this coal phase out. While the timing of the exit of power plants depends on the diversification of the investment portfolios of electric utilities, they are also deeply involved with a great share of NCRE projects and even with the implementation of new technologies. In this regard, Javier Obach Martiniello (Informant A3) of the Chilean Ministry of Energy, highlighted:

"Son muchos los actores que tienen que hacer que esto funcione, entre ellos la empresa privada. (...) AES Gener, Engie, ENEL, Colbún, tienen carteras de inversión en renovables muy fuertes. Están entendiendo la importancia de hacer el tránsito hacia las renovables. No son empresas térmicas: son empresas de energía eléctrica que invierten donde ven una oportunidad de negocio. Por eso, en términos de transición justa de la fuerza laboral, no habría grandes inconvenientes: la misma empresa relocaliza los trabajadores en proyectos cercanos u ofreciendo traslado de regiones. En esto también debe estar el Ministerio, generando oportunidades para la reconversión de los trabajadores, creando esas oportunidades." (Informant A3, June 17, 2021).

On this regard, another tension emerges. On the one hand, there is a community of public-private efforts to take advantage of the investment ecosystem created during more than a decade for the development of NCREs. This aspect facilitates cooperation to explore new technologies, propose alternatives for technological reconversion of the existing infrastructure, etc. The Cluster de Energía de Antofagasta<fnref n="42" /> is conceived in this direction: to

<footnote n="42">⁴² This is a program by the Antofagasta CORFO Committee that seeks to implement a territorial management model to enhance the development of the regional energy industry value chain and promote the articulation and coordination of a variety of actors in the territory.</footnote>
generate new productive backward and forward linkages, through public-private cooperation, to integrate renewables in a new development strategy at a territorial scale in which, in addition, other economic sectors are jointly promoted<fnref n="43" />.

On the other hand, no compensation for the environmental liabilities left by the thermal plants is envisaged, nor recognition of historical responsibilities or reparation of the sacrifice zones. Beyond the issues associated with the management of the human capital of coal-fired power plants, in Antofagasta the idea of a just transition is related to the guarantee of human rights understood in a broad sense: that is, as economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights. From this crossroads between robust institutions that encourages private investment and a historical debt unpaid at the territorial scale, doubts arise about the sustainability of the energy transition underway and the transformative scope that decarbonization is having.

Coal stains are still perceptible in the landscape and the social life of the sacrifice zones. They continue to exist, even when this fuel is phased out. As Claudia Fuentes stressed:

> "A escala local, las zonas donde están las termoeléctricas siguen igual que antes. Las zonas de sacrificio siguen existiendo y siguen igual, como si nada pasara. De hecho, ahora se suma la preocupación por el cierre de las termoeléctricas. Pareciera que no hay un compromiso de salida más conversada y con cierta gobernanza, con participación de la comunidad, de las centrales. Es clave que se dé esta discusión para evitar que estas zonas sigan igual después de salida de las termoeléctricas.

> (...)

> Es importante que las comunidades no queden peor que como estaban. La idea es que queden mejor. Por eso hay una fuerte necesidad de proyectos de reconversión laboral, de alternativas para comunidades y familias." (Informant C2, June 17, 2021).

Furthermore, in La Guajira the coal phase-out acquires other dimensions, due to the magnitude of its contribution to the department's economy (Martínez Ortiz, 2019). First, it is not directly linked to the transformation of the electricity system. Before the start of operations of the wind farms, the installed generating capacity in the department consists of

<footnote n="43">⁴³ According to the *Seremi de Energía de Antofagasta* (Informant A4), these types of institutional strategies have led to attracting investments in new technologies, such as CSP, and the exploration of others, such as green hydrogen. In addition, the transformation of industrial parks such as Tocopilla is being promoted with the development of desalination plants, for instance.</footnote>
two thermal plants, including *Termoguajira*<fnref n="44" />. Yet, the impacts of their operation are not comparable in scale or dimension with the Antofagasta plants, nor their place in the region's energy landscape is like that of Cerrejón. The challenge of phasing out coal in La Guajira relates more to the most basic link in the energy supply chain: extraction, mining (Wehnert et al., 2019).

Second, current policies do not contemplate a time window for ending coal mining. At the national level, both mining-energy sector policies and the National Development Plan (2018-2022) include considerations for a path towards energy transition focused primarily on two axes: 1) Increasing the participation of NCRE sources in the electricity matrix (taking advantage of the wind and solar potential of departments such as Cesar and La Guajira); and 2) diversifying the mining basket to improve the insertion of the country's exports in the global supply chains of critical minerals for the global energy transition (Ministerio de Minas y Energía de Colombia & BID, 2021).

As the informant of the Colombian Ministry of Energy made clear, the Government does not envisage a substitution of coal in the foreseeable future:

> "La transición energética no se trata de sacar tecnologías del mix. De hecho, se debe buscar varias alternativas para hacerle frente a la pérdida de socios comerciales. La transición no puede ser sacar de un momento a otro las tecnologías o las fuentes. Eso pondría en peligro la seguridad energética del país.

> (...)

> Es por eso que estamos mirando la proyección del hidrógeno para reemplazar el carbón, incluso podría considerarse el uso del carbón para producir hidrógeno. Es algo que aún se está evaluando de cara a la definición de la Hoja de Ruta del Hidrógeno en Colombia. (...) Todavía hace falta introducir un poco más de educación en las comunidades. La gente sataniza mucho la minería." Informant A2 (June 10, 2021).

The outlook for coal is uncertain and risks becoming an *stranded asset* (Caldecott et al., 2016; Ploeg & Rezai, 2020) as a consequence of the global energy transition. This concept is useful to emphasize risky implications of not adjusting investments according to the

<footnote n="44">⁴⁴ Termoguajira is a coal-fired power plant with a net installed capacity of 286 MW, divided into two units of 143 MW each. It is in the municipality of Dibulla,</footnote>
decarbonization trajectories needed to limit global warming. It is generally accepted that stranded assets are those that, before the end of their lifecycle, are no longer capable of earning an economic return (i.e., meeting the firm's internal rate of return) because of changes associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy (lower-than-expected demand/prices) (Bos & Gupta, 2018). In other words, such assets are deemed to turn out to be worth less than expected by investors because of the energy transition.

Although a wide range of factors can explain this decline, in the case of La Guajira it is essentially due to: First, an economic one, associated with the loss of trading partners due to the climate commitments acquired, for example, in the framework of the Paris Agreement; Second, a geographical one, related to the department's distance from major coal consumption hubs in the world, what puts Colombian exports in a disadvantaged position with other producers, as Australia, to compete for the South and Southeast Asian market. In the face of this risk, there is no clear bet for the future of Colombian coal in the medium and long term (S. López & Patzy, 2021). At a territorial scale, there are no solid initiatives to develop new economic activities to overcome coal dependence.

This creates a potential scenario for climate injustice: given the risk of stranding, there could be an intention to compensate the decline of coal in international markets by promoting domestic consumption for purposes. Informant B3 stated:

> "Vea, las térmicas siguen siendo necesarias. Un mal necesario, si se quiere. La nueva ley de transición energética, sí, está muy bien: pero acá se sigue necesitando la generación con gas y carbón. Ya hay 12 térmicas listas para respaldar el sistema<fnref n="45" />. Con el ingreso de las eólicas, se vienen más centrales térmicas que ya están adjudicadas. Van porque van. Eso se sabe. ¿Por qué? Porque es más fácil el respaldo de térmicas que de hidros. Ituango se tiró en todo. Todo el mundo le tiene miedo ahora a las hidros.

> (...)

> Pero lo que pasa con esas termos es que tienen como obstáculo la falta de reservas de gas. Entonces tendrían que meterse con el carbón o avanzar en exploración con fractura hidráulica (fracking) en la franja del Orinoco. Y eso usted sabe que es complicado.

<footnote n="45">⁴⁵ Portafolio. "Hay 12 térmicas listas para respaldar el sistema". Retrieved from: https://www.portafolio.co/economia/hay-12-termicas-listas-para-respaldar-el-sistema-electrico-550623</footnote>
(...)

Las térmicas tienen aún mucha capacidad de lobby. Si desaparecen va a ser más por un movimiento natural del mercado que por temas regulatorios.” (Informant B3, July 13, 2021).

Moreover, this observation stems from the results of the 2019 auction of the *Cargo por Confiabilidad*<fnref n="46" />, corresponding to the Firm Energy Obligations (FEO)<fnref n="47" /> allocated to cover the projected demand for the period 2022-2023 (Table 5). Although NEC on grid expansion for 2022 foresaw a distribution of 4,010 MW in almost equal parts between NCRE (Wind and Solar), Hydro and Thermal, FEO allocations were almost entirely shared between This is due, on the one hand, to the expected entry into operation of the Hidroituango dam and, on the other hand, to the start-up of the new thermal plants with a mixed base (part coal and part gas). Given the delays of the Ituango project, a major responsibility falls on the shoulders of the thermal generators. Given the availability of coal mined in Colombia, one of the likely end uses of this mineral is, therefore, the generation of electricity to ensure the reliability of supply to the *Sistema Interconectado Nacional*.

<table><caption>Table 5. 2022-2023 Firm Energy Obligations auction overall results by source. Source: Author's adaptation from XM (2019). Note: FEO means Firm Energy Obligations; NEC means Net Effective Capacity.</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">ALLOCATIONS</th><th colspan="2">WIND</th><th colspan="2">HYDRO</th><th colspan="2">SOLAR</th><th colspan="2">THERMAL</th><th>Total</th></tr><tr><th>FEO [GWh/day]</th><th>NEC [MW]</th><th>FEO [GWh/day]</th><th>NEC [MW]</th><th>FEO [GWh/day]</th><th>NEC [MW]</th><th>FEO [GWh/day]</th><th>NEC [MW]</th><th>FEO [GWh/day]</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>EXISTING</td><td></td><td></td><td>85.09</td><td>10,669</td><td></td><td></td><td>41.93</td><td>3,191</td><td><strong>127.02</strong></td></tr><tr><td>NEW</td><td>2.51</td><td>1,160</td><td>3.50</td><td>1,372</td><td>0.76</td><td>238</td><td>30.75</td><td>1,240</td><td><strong>37.52</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td><strong>2.51</strong></td><td><strong>1,160</strong></td><td><strong>88.59</strong></td><td><strong>12,041</strong></td><td><strong>0.76</strong></td><td><strong>238</strong></td><td><strong>72.68</strong></td><td><strong>4,431</strong></td><td><strong>164.54</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>

A paradox catches the eye: as it is progressively phased out from the energy systems of some countries (especially in the Global North) due to their climate change mitigation commitments, coal from La Guajira could be recycled for electricity generation in Colombia.

<footnote n="46">⁴⁶ Remuneration scheme that seeks to incentivize the development of surplus power generating capacity in order to ensure the future supply of demand. To this end, this mechanism seeks to guarantee investors an efficient payment for the coverage guarantee they offer. It is, then, the modality under which the system is shielded and a reliable supply of energy is provided without the need for direct state intervention in the market.</footnote>

<footnote n="47">⁴⁷ “Obligación de Energía Firme: Vínculo resultante de la Subasta o del mecanismo que haga sus veces, que imponea un generador el deber de generar, de acuerdo con el Despacho Ideal, una cantidad diaria de energía durante el Período de Vigencia de la Obligación, cuando el Precio de Bolsa supere el Precio de Escasez. Esta cantidad de energía corresponde a la programación de generación horaria resultante del Despacho Ideal hasta una cantidad” (Resolución CREG 071 de 2006).</footnote>
In a country whose electricity matrix has traditionally been based on a low-carbon renewable source as hydropower, the global energy transition may unfold simultaneously through the entry of non-conventional renewable energy sources and the emergence of carbon-intensive fossil fuel-based generation technologies. Since 95% of La Guajira's coal is exported annually (S. López & Patzy, 2021), will it start to be consumed domestically to avoid stranding risks?

As for La Guajira, its development plan (2020-2023) does not contain concrete strategies to substitute the sources of income and jobs generated by the coal industry. But, as the Natural Resources Governance Institute (2021) mentions, progress has been made in designing strategies to improve the department's participation in the development of NCREs in its territory. One of the actions included in the aforementioned planning instrument is: "Definir el esquema de participación de La Guajira en los proyectos de energía eólica desarrollados en nuestro territorio (creación de una empresa de economía mixta de energías para La Guajira)."

The inclusion of a vision of energy transition in the regulatory frameworks, in which renewable energies and thermal coal coexist, is a source of constant tensions. In this regard, Jessenia Villamil stated the following:

> "Estas fuentes de energía, eólica y solar, nunca han sido planteadas como alternativa a la extracción de carbón. Nunca se ha planteado así. A pesar de la pérdida de mercados del carbón, la frontera extractiva sigue ampliándose de forma cada vez más acelerada en La Guajira. Un ejemplo de eso es el conflicto alrededor del arroyo Bruno. Allí se pretende desviar el arroyo, pero no han podido por la presión de las comunidades a Cerrejón.

(...)

> Por la manera como se está dando la incursión de la energía eólica, creo que las energías renovables no podrían darse en horizonte posextractivo porque se están produciendo en lógica extractivista. Además, los parques eólicos funcionan sin personal o con muy pocos operarios muy especializados. No se puede desde punto de vista del empleo. Por eso debe mejor hablarse de reconversión económica integral del departamento, más que una reconversión de la fuerza laboral hacia las energías renovables.

(...)
*Debemos superar la lógica de enclave. Nada hacemos cambiando el enclave del carbón por el enclave de la energía eólica.*" (Informant C4, July 17, 2021).

In La Guajira, NCREs would then not be part of a path of decarbonization of the economy but rather of energization of extractivism. This paradox of Colombia's energy transition<fnref n="48" /> policy is connected to the decarbonization process in Chile. More than a withdrawal of coal, from the perspective of global climate action, what is happening in both places is more resembling to a geographical *displacement* (Bouzarovski & Simcock, 2017) of its environmental costs.

An unfair coal phase-out is likely to happen in both cases. In La Guajira, due to the lack of planning regarding the possible local economic recession with subsequent job losses derived from a possible disarticulation of the existing productive chains. In Antofagasta, due to the absence of clear strategies to insert the sacrifice zones in a sustainable development path, after the retirement of the thermoelectric plants. The transition to renewable energies is occurring at a sped-up pace in the two places, but there are major governance issues regarding the decline of the incumbent coal industry. Such a decline is expressive of a complicated interplay of interdependencies at multiple scales that makes it difficult to conceive transformative alternatives from a bottom-up perspective.

### 3.2.3. The challenge of path dependence: addressing energy incumbency

Regional energy transition trajectories do not follow linear paths to a sustainable, low-carbon future. Far from it, the incumbent actors, structures, and high-carbon technologies have a determining weight on the definition of transition pathways. The case of coal in Antofagasta and La Guajira offers a glimpse into the challenges of breaking *carbon lock-ins* (Seto et al., 2016) in two structurally different situations. However, in both places the global energy transition is producing trends to the destabilization of the *coal energy landscapes* (Pasqualetti & Stremke, 2018). One of them is the penetration of NCREs. Nonetheless, this fossil fuel has dug already the path along which the transit towards these

<footnote n="48">⁴⁸ Although it seems to be a matter of political will alone, overcoming coal dependence is part of the complexities of the global energy transition (Svobodova et al., 2020). Even though the share of coal in Colombia's GDP is scarcely around 1%, in La Guajira (near 40%) the economic reliance resembles that of countries dependent on this energy source. Ultimately, the effective pace of its phase-out is conditioned by more than just the intention to mitigate climate change.</footnote>
new technologies is heading. On the Colombian side, such conditioning is rooted in the dependence of La Guajira's economy on extractive rents. On the Chilean side, it derives from the important share of coal-fired plants in Antofagasta's electricity generating capacity.

The geographically uneven and combined development of the energy landscape (Bridge & Gailing, 2020) produces an unstable coexistence between high-carbon and low-carbon energy sources. Such coexistence appears to extend indefinitely over time, although its instability. From a climate justice perspective, this hybridization poses a major challenge in terms of energy policy. Fossil fuels *path dependency* (Fouquet, 2016a) may lead to the replication of bad practices associated with the industry in the past. Identifying the regional and local socio-materiality of energy infrastructures becomes fundamental to insert new electricity generation technologies within a strategy to tackle the *incumbent energy regimes* (Bridge, 2018). Incorporating this concept into policy frameworks is required to provide a transformative horizon to the destabilization and reconfiguration of the energy landscape through the development of utility-scale NCRE projects.

Contrary to what has happened in other places, in Antofagasta and La Guajira NCREs are not rivaling the incumbent industries. Quite the opposite, they enter either to energize them (in La Guajira) or to complement them (in Antofagasta). Regional energy transitions are situated here in a non-linear and unbalanced perspective in the evolution of energy landscapes, producing a recombination of the old and the new that reinforces patterns of spatial injustice linked to energy production. Particularly in the Colombian case, it is alarming how the massive penetration of renewables means the projection of a new vector of territorial instability that reproduces pre-existing power relations with their consequent forms of socio-spatial segregation, marginalization, and exclusion of local communities. Moreover, their incorporation follows the logic of the extractive enclave under which the spatiality of the department has been configured.

The articulation and recombination of energy infrastructures and materialities across space will inevitably produce winners and losers. A just transition approach incorporated into the public policy can prevent thus a concentration of benefits, on the side of energy investors, and localization of losses, on the side of local communities (Carley & Konisky, 2020). Such a vision can contribute to boldly inserting these places on a sustainable development path.
On the side of La Guajira, this implies a bet for structural transformation of the regional economy in the long term, through a productive diversification strategy in which the electricity sector can take part by accelerating the speed of incorporation of new technologies in dialogue with host communities. On the side of Antofagasta, this means social and environmental revitalization of the communities affected by thermoelectric generation by creating new economic opportunities, enhancing local populations' capacities, and repairing any socio-environmental damage caused by coal plants in the past. This horizon seems possible but requires the engagement of stakeholders with increasingly divergent interests. And particularly in La Guajira, the window of opportunity for such concertation is increasingly narrower.

Finally, aside from the dilemmas of decarbonization and diversification of the electricity matrix, the expansion of national energy systems through renewables does not automatically result in a spillover of benefits to the territories producing this sustainable energy. The growing penetration of NCRE in regional energy systems certainly generates opportunities for structural change but also complicated energy policy challenges. Next, we shall see then how the enclave characteristics of the renewable energy investment model in Antofagasta and La Guajira can limit the capacity to address phenomena such as energy poverty. And, moreover, how it can contribute to reproduce situations that are essentially unfair and/or inequitable — jeopardizing the legitimacy and, therefore, the reliability of investments in the electricity sector.
### 3.3. Energy justice challenges: lights and shadows of energy policies

Utility-scale integration of NCRES in existing electricity grids tends to be justified either with climate change mitigation rhetoric or with technical claims regarding the improvement of electricity service. Notwithstanding, the latter benefits are not automatically conveyed to end users (in terms of affordability, household energy security, and so on). Indeed, a *decarbonization paradox* (Monyei et al., 2019) may be unfolding, whereby the potentially beneficial effects of increased renewables on electricity supply capacity could be constrained by structurally unjust or inequitable situations. At the regional level, the staging of this paradox and its multiple manifestations is a central topic of analysis in relation to the third relevant dimension for a just transition: *energy justice*. Insofar as the patterns of injustice and inequity that shape energy systems are spatialized, sustainable solutions must also be spatialized (Bouzarovski & Simcock, 2017) to achieve a just transition—whether in terms of policies or technologies. I will address this question in the following way:1) describing the diverse manifestations of energy poverty in La Guajira and Antofagasta; 2) critically discussing the benefits of sustainable energy in renewable energy producing regions, in light of the distributional, procedural and recognition aspects of energy justice (Williams & Doyon, 2019); 3) examining the dilemmas of renewable energy at the territorial scale and, likewise, overviewing the sustainability challenges of ongoing transformations in regional energy systems.

#### 3.3.1. The various faces of energy poverty

One alleged objective of the global energy transition is ensuring access to modern, cheap and reliable energy. Accordingly, SDG7 calls for “*affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all*”, constituting the material basis of the UN 2030 Agenda through its synergies and trade-offs with other SDGs and their targets (Fuso Nerini et al., 2017). The purpose of bringing electric power to millions of human beings who still lack of it becomes part of the framework of just transition discourses (Newell & Mulvaney, 2013). Hence, addressing energy poverty is a presupposition (often implicit) of the transformation of national energy systems.
Nevertheless, the concept of energy poverty does not have a univocal definition. It derives from the classic notion of *fuel poverty* (Boardman, 1991). Its meaning varies according to the variables used on its measurement, which acquire greater or lesser relevance depending on the differentiated geographical conditions of the territory where it is observed (Scarpellini et al., 2015). Despite of its relativity, indicators and dimensions associated with the concept are relevant to identify patterns of injustice in energy systems. And certainly, Latin America proves to be a fertile ground for exploring operational definitions of this concept. La Guajira and Antofagasta, in turn, can be used as places for capturing the diversity of manifestations and situations of deprivation that may correspond to energy poverty.

Energy poverty manifests itself, above all, through unequal access to electricity. While total coverage rates in both countries are high and approaching universal coverage <fnref n="49" />, a significant access gap persists and constitutes a powerful challenge for ongoing energy transitions. What has been referred to in Latin America as the ‘last mile’ of electricity coverage (Informant B4, July 28, 2021) by policymakers still needs to be covered.

This access gap is dramatic in the case of La Guajira. According to the *Índice de Cobertura de Energía Eléctrica – ICEE 2018* (UPME, 2019b), this department was the third in Colombia with the lowest coverage rate—only behind Vichada and Vaupés, two isolated Amazonian departments, disconnected by land from the rest of the country. Electricity service reached only 58.81% of total households and just 25.06% of rural households in 2018 (Figure 3.13). It was also by far the territorial unit with the highest absolute number of households without electricity (81,960). This means that almost half of the department’s population lived disconnected from the power grid.

<footnote n="49">⁴⁹ The electricity coverage rate reaches 96.45% nationwide in Colombia (UPME, 2019b) and 99.6% in Chile (Ministerio de Energía de Chile, 2019).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_40.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3.13. Access to electricity in Colombia by department (2018).
Source: Author's elaboration with data from UPME (2019).</figcaption></figure>

Moreover, this gap is unevenly distributed across the department (Table 6). While in Riohacha and the municipalities of Baja Guajira the coverage rate was above 80%, in a range closer to the national average, in Media Guajira and especially in Alta Guajira the situation was critical. In the municipalities of Uribia, Manaure and Maicao, the rural coverage rate was less than 20%. In fact, in Uribia the lack of access was so severe that only 5.63% of households had electricity service and the total number of homes without electricity amounted to 35,476, almost the same number as in the second department with the second-highest number of disconnected dwellings (Nariño). It is precisely in these desert municipalities in the north of the department where almost all the projected wind farms are projected to be built.
<table><caption>Table 6. Access to electricity in the municipalities of La Guajira.
Source: Author's elaboration with data from UPME (2019).</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Municipality</th><th colspan="3">Dwellings without electricity</th><th colspan="3">Access to electricity (%)</th></tr><tr><th>Urban</th><th>Rural</th><th>Total</th><th>Urban</th><th>Rural</th><th>Total</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Uribia</td><td>339</td><td>35,137</td><td>35,476</td><td>81.43%</td><td>1.76%</td><td>5.63%</td></tr><tr><td>Manaure</td><td>293</td><td>13,952</td><td>14,245</td><td>85.77%</td><td>16.76%</td><td>24.31%</td></tr><tr><td>Dibulla</td><td>93</td><td>2,739</td><td>2,832</td><td>91.76%</td><td>57.59%</td><td>62.67%</td></tr><tr><td>Albania</td><td>825</td><td>1,469</td><td>2,294</td><td>77.83%</td><td>41.17%</td><td>63.11%</td></tr><tr><td>Maicao</td><td>936</td><td>12,328</td><td>13,264</td><td>95.90%</td><td>17.49%</td><td>64.90%</td></tr><tr><td>San Juan del Cesar</td><td>707</td><td>1,519</td><td>2,226</td><td>90.42%</td><td>61.44%</td><td>80.33%</td></tr><tr><td>Riohacha</td><td>798</td><td>7,802</td><td>8,600</td><td>97.41%</td><td>44.02%</td><td>80.79%</td></tr><tr><td>Hatonuevo</td><td>182</td><td>638</td><td>820</td><td>93.36%</td><td>62.91%</td><td>81.61%</td></tr><tr><td>El Molino</td><td>107</td><td>153</td><td>260</td><td>92.97%</td><td>31.70%</td><td>85.10%</td></tr><tr><td>Barrancas</td><td>99</td><td>731</td><td>830</td><td>97.49%</td><td>75.02%</td><td>87.93%</td></tr><tr><td>Distracción</td><td>18</td><td>158</td><td>176</td><td>98.73%</td><td>90.27%</td><td>94.21%</td></tr><tr><td>Villanueva</td><td>177</td><td>167</td><td>344</td><td>96.88%</td><td>48.14%</td><td>94.26%</td></tr><tr><td>La Jagua del Pilar</td><td>-</td><td>30</td><td>30</td><td>100.00%</td><td>81.37%</td><td>94.64%</td></tr><tr><td>Fonseca</td><td>197</td><td>307</td><td>504</td><td>97.71%</td><td>80.98%</td><td>95.06%</td></tr><tr><td>Urumita</td><td>35</td><td>24</td><td>59</td><td>98.22%</td><td>57.14%</td><td>97.08%</td></tr></tbody></table>

In the case of Antofagasta, the access gap is quite smaller—almost nonexistent. First, the coverage deficit in Chile is less relevant than in Colombia. Additionally, most of the dwellings without electricity are concentrated in the regions of Los Lagos, La Araucanía, Coquimbo and Bíobío (Figure 3.14). In terms of access, it is worth noting that Antofagasta
has a significant rural coverage gap (21.8% of rural dwellings without electricity service in 2017), which made it the second department with the highest share of homes without energy in rural areas. In absolute values, nevertheless, this figure reached only 1,016 dwellings, distributed mainly in the communes of Calama (312), Taltal (254) and Tocopilla (217) (Ministerio de Energía de Chile, 2019). Similarly, these communes stand out for their importance in the regional energy system: while in Calama most of the NCRE projects registered between 2008 and 2021 are concentrated, in Taltal there are large wind farms operating and in Tocopilla large coal-fired power plants are spatially embedded.

<figure><img src="image_41.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3.14. Access to electricity in Chile by region (2017).
Source: Author's elaboration with data from Ministerio de Energía de Chile (2019).</figcaption></figure>

The above figures show that, although energy poverty is notoriously evident in La Guajira in terms of access to electricity, in Antofagasta the problem acquires different features. And so do the challenges posed to overcome it. In this region, as in Chile in general, electricity tariffs are perceived as very high. According to the *Encuesta Barómetro Regional de Antofagasta 2020* (IPPUCN, 2021), high living costs are considered the main regional problem by most respondents (41%). Although the region has a lower average bill per regulated (residential) end-user than the Chilean average, tariffs are still perceived as high—which may produce other manifestations of energy poverty.
In that vein, Paz Araya mentioned that in Antofagasta *hidden energy poverty* phenomena (Karpinska & Śmiech, 2020; Urquiza et al., 2019) may occur, i.e., energy underconsumption due to the high proportion of expenditure it represents for the household. Concerning this, she stated:

> "En Chile, la pobreza energética, más que un tema de acceso físico a la energía es un tema de equidad en relación con los ingresos. Hay un amplio alcance de la llamada pobreza energética oculta (es decir, que los hogares priorizan otros consumos sobre energía, se gasta menos en energía debido a la privación que significa tener poco presupuesto mensual). En esta situación se encuentra alrededor del 20% de la población del país.

(...)

> En el Norte, el acceso es un problema para la población más aislada, pero se presentan fundamentalmente fenómenos de pobreza energética oculta, con una dimensión de calidad de los consumos energéticos. Por ejemplo, esto se relaciona con el confort térmico en la vivienda, debido al calor. En esta zona del país, es más difícil de visibilizar la pobreza energética, pero en efecto es un problema que afecta a la población." (Informant C3, June 22, 2021).

Ultimately, energy poverty adopts a very different shape in Antofagasta and La Guajira. Yet, their energy transformation processes are similar in one key aspect: the search for social acceptance for the implementation of renewable energy technologies has pushed policymakers and players in the energy sector to create expectations around the achievement of greater robustness of the electricity system and, consequently, of overcoming persistent phenomena of energy poverty. As we shall see, the rapid expansion of renewables may contribute to the former without addressing the latter, and even to its detriment.

### 3.3.2. On winners and losers: uneven benefits of sustainable energy

Producing sustainable energy not only faces, as we have seen, enormous challenges and paradoxes from the point of view of environmental impacts and climate action. It also does so from the point of view of so-called energy justice. Energy justice is defined as "as a global energy system that fairly distributes both the benefits and burdens of energy services, and one that contributes to more representative and inclusive energy decision making" (Benjamin K. Sovacool et al., 2017). It thus constitutes a research agenda that makes it
possible to refocus social studies on energy on people rather than on purely technical aspects (Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2014c; Benjamin K. Sovacool et al., 2015). In the following, some critical considerations of the energy transitions in Antofagasta and La Guajira will be examined in light of the three tenets of energy justice: *distributional, procedural and recognition justice*. (K. Jenkins et al., 2016; Mccauley et al., 2013)

To begin with, both in Antofagasta and in La Guajira, the rapid integration of NCRE carriers to the energy mix may be leading to patterns of inequitable distribution of the benefits and burdens associated with the energy transformation. Hence, it is relevant to understand the meaning of the transition and its consequences from the aspects of distributional justice; that is, from the analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of the risks and benefits produced by the governance associated with this transition (K. Jenkins et al., 2016; Mccauley et al., 2013). This approach makes it possible to explore the inequalities that transition policies recreate and that are inscribed in the spatialities of low-carbon energy systems.

On the Chilean side, one of the delayed promises of the market-driven energy transition has been the reduction of electricity prices. This vision is incorporated in the *Política Energética de Chile – Energía 2050*, the long-term energy planning document, and is based on the premise that the country's advantage in terms of natural resource endowment for power generation with renewable sources can reduce the volatility of the spot price of electricity. This would mainly result from the substitution of fossil fuels in electricity generation. As Chile is a net energy importer, the use of fossil fuels in the electricity system is stated as the main cause of high electricity prices in the country. Theoretically the massive deployment of variable renewable energies -together with other energy generation and storage technologies-is expected to reduce tariff burdens, especially for regulated end users (residential).

Nevertheless, when correlating the penetration of NCRE in the electricity matrix with the fluctuation of the average electricity price from 2008 to 2021 (Figure 3.15), the trend differs from expectations. Similar to Germany, Australia or California (Monyei et al., 2019), no significant reduction in electricity prices is found in Chile as part of the benefits of an accelerated expansion of the renewables industry. While such a finding is one of the critical elements of the balance of the renewables boom in Chile, as acknowledged by the *Seremi de Energía de Antofagasta* (Informant A4): "*Estos beneficios de las energías renovables en
términos de seguridad, calidad y confiabilidad del suministro eléctrico, aún no se reflejan en la cuenta de la luz para las personas.” This is a cross-cutting concern for the different stakeholders of the energy system, as electricity prices in the country are consistently in the range of the highest in South America (OLADE, 2020a).

<figure><img src="image_42.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3.15. Penetration of NCRE sources and average electricity prices in Chile (2008–2021).
Source: Author's elaboration with data from CNE (2021).</figcaption></figure>

Although market-oriented transition policies have failed to reduce electricity tariff prices, this limitation does not prevent the low-carbon energy transition from producing other kind of benefits for some economic agents. As stressed by Furnaro the NCRE boom is partly explained by the urgency of the mining industry (with an enormous weight within the country's economy) to find a long-term structural solution, at the energy system level, to the price volatility and insecurity in the fossil fuel supply chain. Under this critical perspective, renewables would provide a *socio-ecological fix* (McCarthy, 2015) for the process of capital accumulation in Chile, by allowing the oxygenation of the Chilean economy with new investment flows, reducing the concentration of the electricity market and relegitimizing state policies in the environmental arena.

All the above can be seen in the Second Region. As the epicenter of Chile's mining economy, Antofagasta reflects the industry's main trends. A functional and spatial coincidence between the mining deposits and the spatial distribution of the new energy infrastructures can also be
observed, in line with the idea of the *spatial fix* (Furnaro, 2020) that non-conventional renewables provide to a regional economy based on minerals extraction. So, as no automatic spill-over effect of NCRE benefits to end-users of energy occurs, the benefits tend to be concentrated in the short term among the main regional economic agents, especially within the mining industry. An example of this is the case of Antofagasta Minerals, the main Chilean private mining group.<fnref n="50" />

In Colombia, the price effect of renewables cannot be assessed because, on the one hand, their share in the country's electricity generation remained insignificant in 2021 (less than 1%) (XM, 2021) and, on the other hand, the predominance of hydro with thermal backup based mainly on gas extracted mainly domestically avoids the contingencies of energy-importing countries such as Chile. In La Guajira, distributional considerations are mainly related to issues of access to electricity. According to UPME (2019) calculations in the *Plan Indicativo de Expansión de Cobertura de Energía Eléctrica 2019-2023* (PIEC)<fnref n="51" />, the required investment to fill the existing access gaps in the department exceeded 1.5 trillion Colombian pesos (tripling the amount of the next department with the highest investment requirement). Once again, 80.02% of this amount was concentrated in three municipalities of *Media* and *Alta Guajira*: Maicao, Manaure and, fundamentally, Uribia (where 99.33% of the unserved dwellings should be covered with individual solutions and isolated microgrids, which makes electrification more expensive).

Regarding this issue, in a column published on August 21, 2021, Colombia's Deputy Minister of Energy, Miguel Lotero, referred to La Guajira as the “*joya energética de Colombia*”<fnref n="52" />. He further indicated that, between 2018 and 2021, electric power service was provided to 2,360 homes and 6,600 more homes were expected to be connected in the short term. Put in

<footnote n="50">⁵⁰ On the one hand, this company has promoted large-scale NCRE generation projects such as the *Conejo Solar* photovoltaic plant in the municipality of Taltal. This project was conceived as one of the solutions to lower the OPEX of *Los Pelambres*, the largest mining operation of this company. On the other hand, it has been a pioneer in the industry's transition to renewables. With a PPA signed with Colbún, it made *Minera Saldívar* -located in Antofagasta- the first Chilean mine to use only renewable energies to produce copper from 2020 onwards (Antofagasta Minerals, 2020).</footnote>

<footnote n="51">⁵¹ The PIEC is a document prepared by the UPME with two purposes: 1) To identify the energy service needs, 2) To quantify the investments to be made to achieve the universalization of the electric energy service.</footnote>

<footnote n="52">⁵² El Heraldo. (2021). *La Guajira, la joya energética de Colombia*. Diario El Heraldo de Barranquilla. https://www.elheraldo.co/columnas-de-opinion/miguel-lotero-robledo/la-guajira-la-joya-energetica-de-colombia-columna-de</footnote>
perspective of the results yielded by the ICEE 2018 (which form the basis of the PIEC 2019-2023), this meant that in three years just 2.88% of the dwellings without service in the department were effectively covered (with the possibility of jumping to more than 10% before the end of the government's term in 2022). This glacial pace of progress towards universal access to electricity contrasts with the frenetic pace for the development and entry into operation of wind farms.

Regarding this, Informant A2 of the Ministry of Mines and Energy mentioned:

> "El cierre de brechas de acceso en zonas no interconectadas (ZNI) avanza de forma más lenta. Por recomendaciones de la Misión de Transformación Energética (MTE) se está avanzando en un marco más estructurado para las ZNI. En particular, se está mirando la posibilidad de asignar a un operador las ZNI. El marco regulatorio se está modernizando, aunque la tecnología va más rápido que la regulación. Por eso uno de los objetivos prioritarios del Ministerio y de la MTE es responder a la pregunta: ¿por qué no se están cerrando las brechas de cobertura en lugares como La Guajira?" Informant A2 (June 10, 2021).

In the private sector, there are several explanations for the persistence of these access gaps. A first consideration was given by Informant B2, who is engineer of Empresa de Energía de Pereira (one of the partner companies of the consortium in charge of the network operation in La Guajira). He stated:

> "Sí está en la mente de los players del sector llegar a estas zonas. El problema no es de generación con energías renovables sino de transmisión. Hay un gran reto de lograr una mayor transmisión para darle mayor robustez al sistema. (...) Y los problemas de transmisión en La Guajira afectan todos los eslabones de la cadena, incluida la distribución del servicio. Ejemplo de ello es lo que pasa con la Colectora. Por eso es tan importante mejorar esto para resolver problemas de pobreza energética.

> Otro problema grande es la lejanía y dispersión de las viviendas sin servicio. Se necesita demasiada inversión en infraestructura que deben hacer los privados para suministrar energía eléctrica a los usuarios. Hay una regulación de la CREG en ese sentido. O sea que sí hay incentivos, pero son nuevos." Informant B2 (June 18, 2021).
From the perspective of an Asian multinational company with major investments in the sector, Informant B3 added the following:

“Cubrir esta brecha es complicado porque requiere otra infraestructura, diferente a la de los parques de generación. Requiere líneas de distribución, subestaciones y transformadores de distribución, en fin... Yo diría que ése es un vacío de la política de transición energética, que no conecta la ampliación de la generación con renovables con el cierre de la brecha de cobertura de energía eléctrica. Por eso sigue habiendo tantas dificultades para implementar los planes de electrificación rural. Nadie se quiere meter en eso. ¿Quién va a pagar eso? ¿Por qué no hay convocatorias de la UPME para conexión de proyectos de zonas no interconectadas? ¿Por qué no hay conexión de los sistemas de transmisión regionales para zonas no interconectadas?” Informant B3 (July 13, 2021).

Market regulations are thus reconfigured toward the development of utility-scale generation infrastructure, but not for connecting households without electricity. The rush of investors and government institutions to produce positive results in meeting the goals of inclusion of NCRE carriers in the electricity matrix seems to leave behind the enabling conditions to close the dramatic access gaps in La Guajira. A potential distributional injustice is, then, that tax incentives included in the regulatory framework to encourage the use of clean energy favor the big energy players and, more specifically, the big Incumbents, the ones who can retain these benefits. But this is not reflected in better energy supply conditions for the communities impacted by large-scale generation and transmission projects. In these areas, public and private investments for the development of regional transmission system infrastructure (STR) and local distribution systems (SDL), as well as small-scale distributed generation solutions, arrive in dribs and drabs.

On this issue, Yordan Stiven Cruz (Informant B1) of the company O3 Smart Cities, a small-scale PV solutions supplier, said:

“Los incentivos tributarios del gobierno van a darle más herramientas a los grandes. Está bien que les apuesten a los grandes para cumplir metas, pero si hablamos de transición energética y no sólo de diversificación, la apuesta no puede ser sólo instalar fuentes renovables, también es cambio cultural y consumo consciente. Más que apoyar a los grandes, es también concientizar a la gente del común.
La gente no se está beneficiando de los grandes proyectos. Lo que pasa en lugares como La Guajira es que la gente sólo se beneficia al momento de la construcción de los parques solares o eólicos, pero los trabajos son estacionarios debido a que estos parques son desatendidos en cuanto a su operatividad. Los grandes proyectos no generan mucho empleo. Generan más empleo las pequeñas empresas que se dedican a este tema.” Informant B1 (May 20, 2021).

Indeed, the benefits of transitions to NCRE are concentrated in the big energy players and investors in Chile and Colombia, a trend perceived in different ways by informants in the three clusters of stakeholders. Such dynamics reveal *energy path dependency* (Stein, 2017) phenomena that reveal the decisive influence of incumbent actors, technologies and regulations in the transformation of energy systems. The *institutional stickiness* produced by this influence of incumbents slows down the pace of the overall transformation of the system and narrows the transformative scope of the implemented policies. In a just transition horizon, this poses a governance challenge to move in the direction of democratizing the energy system (Healy & Barry, 2017) and to limit any tendency towards further concentration of the electricity market.

A final cross-cutting consideration that was mentioned by several informants (especially from civil society) as a potential vector of distributional injustice is the question of the impacts of NCRE expansion on the regional labor market. Although more aligned with the classical notion of just transition and thus to the risks of massive job losses on account of decarbonization (Kern & Rogge, 2016; Newell & Mulvaney, 2013), this concern is not expressed in terms of *creative destruction* (Aghion et al., 2020) vis-à-vis incumbent energy regimes—as we saw in the section on climate justice<fnref n="53" />. On the contrary, in La Guajira as in Antofagasta, the concern regarding labor market dynamics is mainly expressed in relation to the quality and type of jobs created.

In both regions, the accelerated expansion of renewables has come hand in hand with promises of massive job creation. In the Caribbean region of Colombia, the energy transition

<footnote n="53">⁵³ Since these are not competing activities, at least in La Guajira, the innovation of energy carriers does not generate a scenario of creative destruction of the jobs created by the coal industry.</footnote>
policy of the government of Iván Duque projects the creation of 11,700 jobs<fnref n="54" />. Meanwhile, in Chile, the economic reactivation policy of the government of Sebastián Piñera was supposed to create 3,200 jobs in the construction of 24 renewable energy projects in Antofagasta<fnref n="55" />. However, as expressed by informants from the three clusters of stakeholders, the fact that NCRE projects operate as unattended plants, besides the highly qualified profile (often of foreign origin) of the personnel required to put them into service, means that the jobs created are temporary and do not correspond to the labor needs and competencies of the local population.

Furthermore, this concentration of the benefits of regional energy transitions is related to considerations of possible procedural injustices. Procedural justice “refers to the means through which different stakeholders are involved in decision-making” (Sareen & Haarstad, 2018). From this perspective, the fairness of energy processes and equitable opportunities for participation of all stakeholders and, in particular, of the most disadvantaged are as important (Mccauley et al., 2013). Concern for procedures is as relevant as concern for outcomes, as both aspects are interrelated. As seen in cases such as wind energy development in Mexico (Avila-Calero, 2017; Juárez-Hernández & León, 2014; Mejía-Montero et al., 2020), procedural injustices can indeed undermine the social acceptance of renewable generation infrastructures and, therefore, the materialization of the objectives of incorporating NCRE carriers into the energy matrix.

In the case of Antofagasta, the longer trajectory in the implementation of various NCRE technologies - as well as the history of socio-environmental conflicts linked to electricity generation - has resulted in experience-based learning. In this regard, Javier Obach and Aldo Erazo of Chile's Ministry of Energy commented

“La estrategia de transición justa del Ministerio de Energía fue construida con muchos actores: sindicatos, académicos, ONG, etc. Lo más importante de este proceso ha sido saber

<footnote n="54">⁵⁴ El Heraldo. (2021). *La Guajira, la joya energética de Colombia*. Diario El Heraldo de Barranquilla. https://www.elheraldo.co/columnas-de-opinion/miguel-lotero-robledo/la-guajira-la-joya-energetica-de-colombia-columna-de</footnote>

<footnote n="55">⁵⁵ Reporte Sostenible. (2020). *Industria de las energías renovables en Antofagasta será “el motor” de la reactivación económica sostenible del país*. Reporte Sostenible. http://reportesostenible.cl/blog/industria-de-las-energias-renovables-en-antofagasta-sera-el-motor-de-la-reactivacion-economica-sostenible-del-pais/</footnote>
escuchar para desarrollar una mejor política pública. Es imprescindible equilibrar y escuchar a distintos actores de forma coordinada y ordenada. Es por eso que se tienen divisiones especializadas para llegar a estos actores. Uno de los grandes aprendizajes en este proceso ha sido la importancia de la validación social del proyecto.

(...)

Nuestra regla número 1 es ir al territorio, escuchar las demandas. Trabajamos con una lógica de learning by doing. No siempre sale bien, pero las mesas de trabajo público-privado nos han demostrado la importancia de que todos los actores pongan sus opiniones sobre la mesa. No siempre esa participación y esas opiniones son vinculantes, pero se trata de que todo se haga con procesos participativos, transparentes y abiertos.

(...)

En el Ministerio de Energía, se somete a juicio toda la política pública. La participación siempre es insumo relevante para que los tomadores de decisiones puedan tomar decisiones de la manera más informada posible.” Informant A3 & Informant A4 (June 17, 2021).

This participation process therefore starts with the recognition of relevant stakeholders and sets deadlines and modalities for receiving input to the policy (Figure 3.16). Yet, this conception of participation reduced to a merely consultative function and the idea of just transition incorporated in the energy policy generates dissatisfaction among some civil society actors. The former generates doubts about the fairness of the process because the consultative and non-binding nature of the contributions during the participatory phase places the burden of decision-making, in first and last resort, on the centralized policymakers themselves.

In this respect, Paz Araya noted:

> "Yo mencionaría dos elementos críticos: uno, que la estrategia de transición justa se reduce a una visión clásica, de compensación económica y laboral para los trabajadores del sector, pero, en el fondo, se está compensando a las empresas grandes. El tema de la pérdida de empleos por la descarbonización es de tal magnitud, pues las centrales a carbón operan con poco personal. Es miope reducir los temas de justicia energética sólo a un tema económico. Ése es un primer error.

> Y dos, que invisibiliza otros problemas. Las zonas de sacrificio existen por problemas de planificación. Este enfoque invisibiliza la causa porque aparenta que el problema de los impactos sobre la población y el medioambiente es de la tecnología y no de la mala
planificación. (...) Se debe avanzar hacia un sistema más distribuido en todos los sentidos
(...) No basta sólo con cambio tecnológico.” Informant C3 (June 22, 2021).

<figure><img src="image_43.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3.16. Participation process for the design of the Just Transition strategy in Chile.
Source: Ministerio de Energía de Chile (2020b).</figcaption></figure>

The latter is connected to what was mentioned by Claudia Fuentes:

"Es de gran importancia vincular la transición energética y la transición justa a temas de derechos humanos. Debe discutirse el tema de que contaminación asociada a la generación de energía vulnera los derechos humanos. Hay que localizar la discusión. Responder a problemas globales, pero también, sobre todo, a problemas locales. (...) Esto requiere pensar la transición energética de otra manera. Podrían crearse mesas entre empresas y comunidad con el Estado como mediador, para garantizar el respeto entre las partes." Informant C2
(June 17, 2021).

This consideration implies that, even in scenarios where formal inclusion operates through
procedural or distributional means, there may be a lack of recognition that generates
perceptions of injustice. This is happening in Antofagasta: the communities of the sacrifice
zones are included in the consultative processes, but the lack of recognition operates through
the refusal to repair the social and environmental damages caused by the coal-fired power
plants. In other words, this misrecognition shows that the rights of these populations are not
adequately restored in order to lay the foundations to prevent the repetition of similar patterns of injustice due to the future implementation of energy policy (Heffron & McCauley, 2017).

In the case of La Guajira, this conjunction between procedural injustices and recognition injustices is even more evident and threatens the stability of the entire NCRE investment model in Colombia. On the one hand, a first aspect of procedural/recognition injustice is the functioning of the prior consultation mechanism. As mentioned in a previous section and as evidenced by González Posso & Barney (2019), the distortion of the consultations with the Wayúu communities is triggering conflicts between the clans and the companies as well as between some clans and others. In a highly unstable social context where illegal flows and armed actors circulate, the lack of recognition is a time bomb that threatens the legal security of investments in renewables.

An obstacle to tackle this challenge is the vision of territory of the private sector and energy companies as opposed to that of the ethnic communities. From very different personal experiences, informants B1, B2 and B3 alluded at different moments of the interviews to what, in their opinion, was stopping the advancement of the projects. Words such as “complicados”, “jodidos”, “dificiles”, among others, were often repeated throughout the interviews to refer their perceptions of Wayúu attitudes towards energy projects. But, as Informant B3 acknowledged, this perceived difficulty in establishing effective communication is due to a lack of knowledge of the Wayúu’s deep-rooted identity relationship with the landscape.

Where project developers see a barren desert, indigenous people see places that, in turn, are marks of collective identity and differentiation between family clans. These places, which can be *Prohibidos, Encantados* or *Comunales* (Ministerio de Cultura de Colombia, 2021) and be delimited by cemeteries or grazing sites, are mostly found in the installation sites of large wind farms. Without going into details, this socio-cultural difference in the perception of the landscape of La Guajira produces an important asymmetry of expectations with respect to energy projects. This lack of knowledge leads to the impossibility of establishing *multistakeholder dialogue* (Hemmati, 2002; Todorow, 2016) as the cornerstone of regional energy governance. At the moment of interaction between companies and indigenous peoples, and therefore of negotiations between these companies and local communities, the
procedures tend to become entangled and even suffer a succession of setbacks after having almost been completed. If the absence of clear procedures to involve local communities in the territorial delimitation of energy infrastructure persists, and as long as due process continues to be disregarded during prior consultations, backslashes against the installation of wind turbines and transmission lines will likely intensify.

This expectation gap around energy projects puts their acceptance at risk and, hence, threatens to result in the closure of financing channels and may even lead to stop ongoing projects. According to Álvaro Mejía of the IDB, the view of development banks is as follows:

> "El banco tiene unas salvaguardias ambientales y sociales en cada proyecto en el que se vea involucrado. Cada vez más los desarrolladores y el país voltean a mirar estas salvaguardas, así el BID no esté metido de lleno en los proyectos. Muchas veces los proyectos se piensan desde las capitales, pero hay que tener en cuenta lo que quiere la comunidad (si la comunidad quiere energía o no). (...) El tema de las salvaguardias es que sea la comunidad la que identifique las necesidades y pueda efectivamente requerir el proyecto. Que salga desde la comunidad y no desde un escritorio en las ciudades principales.

(...)

> En la visión del BID, hay siempre un aspecto social bien marcado de incluir participación de la comunidad. Siempre. Cuando el banco ve impacto negativo muy fuerte del proyecto, prefiere poner en pausa el proyecto. El problema es que la comunidad compre el proyecto desde su concepción. El banco blinda los proyectos con estas salvaguardas. El banco cuida mucho sus proyectos, sus iniciativas, con estas salvaguardas sociales y ambientales, en su sostenibilidad." (Informant B5, September 1, 2021).

The role played by the public sector is another component of this pattern of recognition/procedural injustice. It is worth mentioning that a retribution scheme is being implemented in La Guajira in which 1% of energy sales will be allocated to projects defined in a participatory manner by the communities. As Mónica Gasca said: "Queremos obras que le queden a la comunidad, que la plata de las regalías de los proyectos de energía no se siga perdiendo." (Informant A2, June 10, 2021). Given the history of corruption in the handling of public finances in the department, this scheme represents an apparent distributional opportunity to redistribute the benefits of the energy sector more equitably. At the same time,
it is presented as an alternative to ‘imposing’ the provision of electricity as a solution to the
host communities of power projects.

Yet, as Jessenia Villamil of the NGO CENSAT-Agua Viva emphasized, this appearance of inclusiveness demonstrates a lack of awareness from the policymakers of the high percentage of households with UBN in the department and the absence of ambitious policies for providing public services to the communities:

> "La primera preocupación no es la energía eléctrica porque la primera preocupación es el agua. Puede que no sea percibido como una necesidad básica principal porque tienen otras necesidades básicas insatisfechas irresueltas mucho más graves y urgentes. De hecho, la energía eléctrica podría facilitar acceso al agua, entonces no es aislamiento por voluntad ni falta de voluntad. Las comunidades están aisladas por la pobreza. Si a ellos les preguntaran si quieren tener energía eléctrica para diferentes usos, ellos dirían que sí.

(...)

> Aquí radica la importancia del vínculo agua-energía. Lo más artificial es la bomba eléctrica, pero el vínculo es mucho más profundo. El agua se necesita para obtener la primera fuente de energía: el alimento. La gente que vive o que vivirá al lado de los aerogeneradores no tiene acceso a la electricidad ni siquiera para consumo más básico.” (Informant C4, July 17, 2021).

The experience of Antofagasta and La Guajira in the transformation of their energy systems
shows that the production of sustainable energy can (re)create (often spatialized) patterns of
unfair and/or inequitable distribution of benefits. However, while the distributional issue
raises concerns, there are also procedural and recognition considerations that demonstrate the
limited transformative scope of energy transition policies.

3.3.3. Renewable energy dilemmas

The urgency expressed in the policy frameworks to make leaps in the incorporation
of NCRE into the electricity matrix of Chile and Colombia collides with the requirements of
a just transition that, indeed, attempts to avoid accentuating pre-existing inequalities or
fueling new social conflicts. This irreducible dilemma between urgency and justice frames
the energy transitions in the Global South (Kumar et al., 2021). This tension is a synthesis of
the multiple contradictions between energy transition policies and their socio-materiality,
between the macro view of the transition and its emerging territorial realities. At the regional scale, in that sense, this main dilemma is broken down into a plurality of dilemmas that highlight the complexity of the socio-technical, political, and cultural challenges involved in building a low-carbon future in Latin America under a perspective of equity and justice.

Unlike environmental justice and climate justice, energy justice provides a critical point of view, albeit on the fringe of activism. Coming from an academic tradition more focused on a holistic understanding of the energy system than on contesting the economic system and the power relations that condition energy use, energy justice has the virtue of offering a conceptual framework and analytical tools to reveal complexity and develop reflexive governance mechanisms (K. Jenkins et al., 2017; Wood & Roelich, 2020). As such, the dilemmas posed are not irresolvable in nature, nor do they express direct antagonisms. I decided to select three to illustrate the above.

The first dilemma refers to the scale of the transition. A tension between large-scale centralized projects and small distributed solutions is evident in the territorial trajectory of La Guajira and Antofagasta. The emphasis of the regulatory frameworks is on generating the enabling conditions to accelerate the incorporation of NCRE carriers to the electricity mix, leaving aside the encouragement of distributed generation solutions at local scale. The business model based on the massification of utility-scale generating capacities thus favors industrial-scale energy production to feed energy-intensive industries, some of which are hundreds of kilometers away from the energy production sites. From this derives the limited scope of large-scale NCRE in mitigating energy poverty-related justice issues in rural and remote communities (Banerjee et al., 2017). The absence of an adequate (and concerted) balance between both scales generates frictions between stakeholders that, at least in the case of La Guajira, may lead to the rise of socio-environmental conflicts in the short-term.

The second dilemma refers to the pace of transition. In relation to the above, a spatialized look at the problem of the temporal dynamics of transitions brings other connotations to the table. Whereas at the global scale resistance to a rapid transition comes from incumbents with powerful economic interests (e.g., the coal or oil industry) (Kern & Rogge, 2016), at the territorial scale, opposition to speed up a transition based on large-scale NCREs tends to come from host communities and other disadvantaged stakeholders. Accelerating the
transformation of the electricity system without taking into account the governance-related issues that may arise risks overcoming “carbon lock in” at the price of “energy injustice lock in” (Healy & Barry, 2017). A poorly governed rapid transition may end up creating an energy future of environmental sustainability but socio-spatial injustice that, instead of restoring the rights of the communities affected by fossil fuels, ends up aggravating the burden of their marginalization. Such may be the case with the population of the Antofagasta sacrifice zones or the ethnic communities of La Guajira.

The third dilemma refers to transition planning. Combining insights on procedural and recognition considerations, this last axis of analysis puts into perspective the tension between energy planning executed with techno-managerial criteria, as a post-political vision that assumes the neutrality of technologies, and a participatory approach, which puts at the center an articulation between the needs of the system, the priorities of the actors and the technical diagnoses that emerge bottom-up. Ongoing processes have shown that participation tends to be deprived of decision-making capacity and, in the end, depoliticized technical criteria prevail. As long as centralized decision-making is maintained, the concentration of benefits in a handful of market players will presumably remain. This dilemma thus opens the possibility of rethinking governance not merely as an articulation of institutions but as a possibility for the formation of organizations and communities (Gailing, 2018) around the decentralized reconfiguration of energy systems. After all, “el paradigma de la descentralización implica una desconcentración a nivel tecnológico, institucional y de toma de decisiones, lo que requiere, a su vez, de una articulación que dé cuenta de las prioridades y diagnósticos que emerjan desde los mismos territorios.” (Araya J. & Zamora Z., 2021).

In sum, addressing these dilemmas in practice poses a looming challenge in order to avoid not only making invisible and reinforcing the injustices and inequalities that operate through energy systems (Bouzarovski & Simcock, 2017) but also to jeopardize the long-term stability of the projects and of the investment model that Chile and Colombia have managed to build. A rapid transition can not only be a profitable and desirable business from the point of view of climate action (Newell, 2020b), it can also become a transformative force towards territorial reordering of energy spaces under a logic of breaking the patterns of socio-spatial injustice. Although this permanent tension and imbalance is inherent to the very idea of a just
transition (Newell & Mulvaney, 2013), incorporating this perspective into the study of ongoing transformations in the regional energy systems of Antofagasta and La Guajira serves the purpose of producing evidence grounded in experience. Ultimately, such a perspective can illuminate the development of policies to address the (re)production of distributional, procedural and recognition injustices through a deep understanding of spatial formations and without leaving it all to the mercy of market forces.
4. Conclusions

By way of conclusion, this section provides a closing reflection to the research. On the one hand, the main findings will be summarized with the purpose of solidifying the comparative approach. Since the formulation of the hypotheses was not done in a confirmatory manner, but rather as a definition of theoretical starting points for the empirical research, they will not be discussed separately here. Instead, the main similarities and differences of the case studies will be systematically summarized according to each of the research objectives. On the other hand, some final reflections will be formulated in prescriptive terms on the relevance of incorporating this type of methodological and theoretical approaches in the construction of energy policy, as well as some general notes to steer the ongoing energy transitions in Andean economies along a path of sustainability, equity and justice will be presented.

First, it is worth mentioning that the energy transitions of Chile and Colombia follow fundamentally divergent paths. Despite being open market economies with similar macroeconomic fundamentals and reliance of their external sector on the production of the mining-energy sector, their energy profiles and trajectories differ significantly. While Chile is a net energy importer whose economic growth pattern is relatively coupled to the growth of energy consumption and particularly that of electricity, Colombia is an energy exporter in the form of energy commodities (coal and oil, to be precise). As such, the energy-intensive nature of the development model of the former is reflected in the inherent growth of its carbon intensity, in contrast to the unintended low emissions of the latter—in which the energy sector does not represent the main source of GHG emissions.

Faced with the different challenges and opportunities presented by the global energy transition and considering structural constraints of their economies, both countries have embarked on their own transitional paths towards renewable energies. Chile started first. Faced with the growing energy insecurity caused by the cut-off of natural gas supplies from Argentina in 2004, this country began an accelerated search to diversify its energy sources. At the same time, two opposing visions crystallized: one that advocated the massive use of coal, an efficient but carbon-intensive energy source; the other that defended a pioneering bet on NCRE sources, even before the LCOE of these technologies reached a competitive
range with respect to fossil fuels. Since 2008, with Law No. 20.257, which established NCRE generation goals, Chile set out on a path that led it to become the protagonist of an ‘energy revolution’ considered by various actors on the international scene as a role model to follow on the road to clean energy.

For its part, Colombia was a latecomer to this trend. In 2014, it introduced Law 1715 seeking to attract investment flows and take advantage of the business opportunities presented by an increasingly competitive market. The favorable economic circumstances due to the sharp drop in the LCOE of variable NCRE (wind and solar), added to the impetus given by the commitments made by Colombia in scenarios such as COP21 and subsequently in the context of the Paris Agreement governance, triggered the start of the transformation of its electricity system. In this case, diversification of sources did not appear as a solution to strengthen the energy supply or to reduce the carbon footprint of electricity supply, but rather as a medium-term climate adaptation strategy in the face of the vulnerability posed by the system’s dependence on hydro and, above all, as a strategy for the country’s international insertion.

Both countries have, therefore, very different degrees of progress in the incorporation of NCRE sources into the electricity matrix. However, they are similar in that they have built a solid energy governance with consistent legislation, flexible regulatory frameworks and legal stability that has made it possible to attract the attention of investors, development banks and international organizations. Thus, both countries have been highlighted in international rankings such as the ETI and Climatescope, as well as in international forums such as the UN High-level Dialogue on Energy or the 12th Clean Energy Ministerial. The two countries have managed to build what Alfonso Blanco Bonilla, executive secretary of OLADE, called an “ecosystem of investment in renewables” that combines the following three elements: a competitive and fundamentally private electricity market, a flexible and adaptive policy and regulatory framework, and favorable financial and macroeconomic conditions for investment. The above-described elements occur in an environment of depoliticization of the public discussion on energy policy, in which technical criteria seem to prevail at the time of making strategic decisions concerning system planning.

Nevertheless, this post-political image tends to obscure the emerging tensions in the processes of energy system transformation at the territorial scale. This is the case of La
Guajira and Antofagasta, the renewable energy producing regions par excellence in Colombia and Chile respectively. In these two geographically peripheral places with desert landscapes and an exceptional renewable natural resource endowment for electricity generation, most of the investment in large-scale projects is being concentrated. Although once again the regional case studies show a non-synchronous evolution of both systems in transition, the emphasis of energy transition policies on meeting ambitious goals of incorporating NCRE into the electricity matrix is generating accelerated socio-spatial transformations with comparable impacts. The new energy spaces are thereby a lens through which to observe the challenges of justice and equity of the transitions underway in the main Andean economies.

In this sense, connecting the conceptual tools of geographic political economy with a thematic framework of just transition was extremely useful to understand the challenges of regional energy transitions from a multi-scalar, multi-level and multi-stakeholder perspective. This approach allowed me to use various social science tools applied to energy research without the need to inscribe my point of view in a single discipline. Together with the combination of research techniques and sources of information, this allowed me to overcome the methodological constraint of not being able to access the field in person. The void left by the absence of direct observation of the space was filled by the attention paid to triangulation between methods and within each method.

I will now proceed to present the findings regarding the regional case studies comparison in an orderly fashion, grouping the emerging themes in the empirical research under the three scholarships integrated in the just transition framework: environmental justice, climate justice, and energy justice. First, in terms of environmental justice, the accelerated transformation of the energy landscape in both regions is producing consequences that raise doubts about the environmental sustainability of large-scale expansion of NCRE carriers in the long haul.

In Antofagasta, this consideration can be found in the frantic search to modify land use to pave the way for generating renewable energies by taking advantage of the extraordinary potential (especially solar radiation) provided by the Atacama Desert. The allocation of thousands of hectares for electricity generation raises concerns, even among policy makers,
about the risk of encouraging the creation of "green sacrifice zones" in the foreseeable future. Based on the notion that the desert ecosystem is susceptible to limitless exploitation, the enthusiasm for exploring innovative energy technologies poses a major planning challenge to avoid the spatial diffusion of patterns of environmental degradation. Although there are no major socio-environmental conflicts related to NCREs yet, claims such as those filed against the expansion of Cerro Pabellón demonstrate the importance of respecting due process in energy planning and environmental assessment to avoid contentious responses to new energy infrastructure.

On the La Guajira side, in contrast, the situation is much more problematic. Although utility-scale wind energy projects have not yet started to operate, the delays in the construction process demonstrate the collision between very different visions of territory. Unlike the Atacama Desert, the Alta Guajira (where most of the 16 wind farms under construction are located) is a peninsula with a relatively high population density and where multiple flows and actors both legal and illegal converge. Notably, it constitutes the living space in which the identity and culture of the Wayúu indigenous communities is grounded. Their collective identity closely linked to the space and their community organization based on family clans makes that the rush to speed up the processes of prior consultation and environmental licensing is generating clashes between project developers and host communities. In both cases, these considerations from the point of view of environmental justice lead to the realization that the transition to renewables may not be creating a path of sustainability in which old socio-environmental conflicts related to energy are overcome but rather may be adding new patterns of environmental injustice against local communities.

Second, this irruption of new energy infrastructures does not follow a linear course in which there is a gradual replacement of high-carbon technologies associated with incumbent energy regimes. The uneven and combined geographical development of the new energy spaces is producing a recombination of infrastructures that, on a territorial scale, generates a coexistence between fossil and renewable energy sources. The dilemmas and challenges for the coal phase out from a climate justice perspective are then a point of connection between Antofagasta and La Guajira.
In Antofagasta, the phase out of coal is directly linked to the decarbonization of the electricity system. The retirement of coal-fired plants reveals, though, the complicated game of scales and interests in which the energy transition is being debated. Global companies with diversified investment portfolios and broad participation in the NCRE market are in charge of defining the timing and modalities for the voluntary retirement of the plants, while local communities in the so-called ‘sacrifice zones’ are only taken into account in a consultative manner in the design of the decarbonization policy. In La Guajira, again, the challenge of coal phase-out is more complex. In this case, coal mining represents the main source of wealth and employment in the department. Cerrejón, the coal mine, has built an enclave spatiality that shapes mindsets, practices and institutions around extractivism. Its replacement requires a perspective of structural transformation of the regional economy in which the NCRE can be embedded in a sustainable development strategy to create new forward and backward productive linkages.

To this extent, overcoming coal dependence will require a dual approach of justice and equity to avoid burdening the communities most affected by fossil fuels disproportionately during the transition. On the one hand, it requires the productive reconversion of the enclaves used as sacrifice zones and the reskilling of coal industry workers. This aspect of equity refers to ensuring the labor rights of workers within the industry and the economic rights of workers and local communities dependent on the industry. On the other hand, it should focus on guaranteeing the human rights (understood in a broad sense) of the communities in the areas impacted by coal. From a climate justice perspective, such an approach has implications across different scales and involves different national and international actors. First, it involves the commitment of transnational companies (mining or electricity) and governmental institutions to responsible decarbonization. Second, it refers to the recognition and remediation of the environmental liabilities left by coal extraction and transformation to produce electricity. Third, it points to a question of recognition in terms of not jeopardizing the lives and lifestyles of local communities and other disadvantaged energy stakeholders.

Third and last, this observation that NCREs come to coexist with technologies and activities associated with a high-carbon economy illustrates the contradictions that energy transition policy must face. The predominant view of transitions as massive deployment of renewables
may be leaving blind spots in the transformation of energy systems that, in turn, may become
spatialized patterns of energy injustice. In particular, the disconnection of the NCRE
incorporation targets with respect to plausible objectives to overcome energy poverty is a
sign of the limited transformative scope of the energy transitions underway and the
unequitable sharing of the benefits of renewable energies.

In the case of La Guajira, this distributional injustice is reflected in the absence of short or
medium-term plans to overcome the gaps in access to electricity. Even with the connection
of the new utility-scale power generating capacity to the grid, the interconnection solutions
or off-grid supply of electricity to serviceless dwellings arrive only in dribs and drabs. In
addition, the promise of massive job creation with the construction of wind farm
infrastructure generates an illusion of fairness that hides recognition and procedural
injustices. The latter are related particularly to the misrecognition of the local communities'
territorial visions and their identitary relationship with the landscape, as well as a
misrepresentation of their customs that leads to rendering their needs invisible. As a
consequence of this, there are delays in the development of generation and transmission
infrastructure that jeopardize the investment model that Colombia has sought to build through
the transition to NCRE.

In the case of Antofagasta, conversely, the almost universal access to electricity means that
the challenges to be faced lie in other aspects of the energy system. High electricity prices
are a concern for the regional population but large-scale NCRE deployment does not
significantly affect this issue. Instead, it provides a socioenvironmental fix for the main local
industry (mining). The benefits of NCRE end up being concentrated, in the short term, on
energizing the extractive industries. Notwithstanding, the main concerns regarding energy
transition policies are linked to procedural and recognition injustices associated with the
disregard of the environmental burdens of coal-based electricity generation and its impacts
on the public health of communities in the sacrifice zones. The absence of strategies with a
comprehensive approach to restoring the human rights of local communities in the sacrifice
zones is a critical element of the transition.

Finally, this articulated view of the three tenets of energy justice provides a general
conclusion about the challenges for a just transition in Andean economies: the scalability of
the Chilean and Colombian renewable energy investment model and, therefore, its suitability for a transformative path of transition depends to a large extent on connecting such technological and financial efforts with considerations not only of mitigation and sustainability but also of justice and equity. While changes of the scale of the energy transition inevitably create winners and losers, an equitable distribution of gains and losses among the different stakeholders in energy systems is necessary to avoid backslashes against a low-carbon future. The academic community has an important role to play in ensuring that policy efforts are based on empirical evidence about the actual experience of those experiencing these changes across space. This is an enormous challenge that requires more extensive research and represents an opportunity to move academic inquiry forward in a yet underexplored terrain such as Latin America.
ANNEX 1. Table of informants

<table><thead><tr><th>Type</th><th>Code</th><th>Name</th><th>Profile</th><th>Date</th><th>Length</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="4">Public Sector (A)</td><td>A1</td><td>Wilman Daniel Silgado</td><td>Lawyer. Legal Counsel at the Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) of Colombia.</td><td>May 5, 2021</td><td>00:59:35</td></tr><tr><td>A2</td><td>Mónica Gasca Rojas</td><td>Economist. Advisor to Colombia's Mines and Energy Minister. Responsible for key energy transition initiatives such as the Misión de Transformación Energética and the geothermal & hydrogen strategy.</td><td>June 10, 2021</td><td>01:45:23</td></tr><tr><td>A3</td><td>Javier Obach Martiniello</td><td>Renewable natural resources engineer. Head of the Environmental Unit at the Environmental and Climate Change Division of Chile's Ministry of Energy.</td><td>June 17, 2021</td><td>01:43:48</td></tr><tr><td>A4</td><td>Aldo Erazo Aracena</td><td>Industrial civil engineer. Seremi (Regional Ministerial Secretary) of Energy at Antofagasta Region (Chile).</td><td>June 17, 2021</td><td>01:43:48</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="5">Private Sector (B)</td><td>B1</td><td>Yordan Stiven Cruz</td><td>Mechanical engineer. Project Coordinator at O3 Smart Cities S.A.S., a small solar PV and e-mobility solutions company.</td><td>May 20, 2021</td><td>00:33:32</td></tr><tr><td>B2</td><td>Abel Mauricio Gallego</td><td>Electrical engineer. Energy Efficiency Manager at the electric utility Energía de Pereira S.A. E.S.P.</td><td>June 18, 2021</td><td>01:16:23</td></tr><tr><td>B3</td><td>Informant B3<sup>56</sup></td><td>Engineer. Technical Business Development Manager in the South American subsidiary of an Asian multinational construction and engineering company (Fortune 500).</td><td>July 13, 2021</td><td>01:37:25</td></tr><tr><td>B4</td><td>Alfonso Blanco Bonilla</td><td>Mechanical and industrial engineer. MSc in Energy Economics. Executive Secretary of the Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (OLADE).</td><td>July 28, 2021</td><td>01:21:58</td></tr><tr><td>B5</td><td>Álvaro Mejía Villegas</td><td>Civil engineer. Advisor at the Energy Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).</td><td>September 1, 2021</td><td>01:08:15</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>C1</td><td>Carla Lanyon Garrido</td><td>MSc in Social-Ecological Resilience for Sustainable Development. Researcher for</td><td>June 16, 2021</td><td>01:15:57</td></tr></tbody></table>

<footnote n="56">56 Anonymized at the informant's request.</footnote>
<table><tr><td rowspan="4">Civil Society (C)</td><td>C2</td><td>Claudia Fuentes Pereira</td><td>the Centro de Energía at Universidad de Chile.<br/>Renewable natural resources engineer. MSc in Governance of Risk and Resources. Researcher for the environmental NGO Chile Sustentable.</td><td>June 17, 2021</td><td>01:34:17</td></tr><tr><td>C3</td><td>Paz Araya Jofré</td><td>MSc in Energy Economics. Researcher for the Red de Pobreza Energética (RedPE) - Chile. Doctoral Researcher IRI THESys at Humboldt University.</td><td>June 22, 2021</td><td>01:41:52</td></tr><tr><td>C4</td><td>Jessenia Villamil Ruiz</td><td>Ecologist and social worker. Researcher for the environmental NGO Asociación Centro Nacional Salud, Ambiente y Trabajo (CENSAT-Agua Viva).</td><td>July 17, 2021</td><td>01:25:55</td></tr><tr><td>C5</td><td>Joanna Barney</td><td>MSc in Peace and Conflict Resolution. Financial manager and researcher at the Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo y la Paz (INDEPAZ).</td><td>August 6, 2021</td><td>01:23:28</td></tr></table>
ANNEX 2. Semi-structured interview protocol<fnref n="57" />

# PROTOCOLO DE ENTREVISTA SEMI-ESTRUCTURADA

**Informante:** -------

**Investigador:** Simón Ladino Cano – Estudiante del máster Erasmus Mundus LAGLOBE

## Descripción.

La presente entrevista hace parte de una investigación académica como requisito para acceder al título del máster Erasmus Mundus Latin America and Europe in a Global World (LAGLOBE), el cual es financiado por la Comisión Europea y ofertado conjuntamente por tres universidades en Francia, Suecia y España. Por lo tanto, la misma está motivada por el interés de contribuir a la producción de conocimiento y la divulgación científica.

## Objetivo.

Recabar información empírica acerca de la transición energética en América Latina y, particularmente, sobre los procesos de Colombia y Chile como casos de estudio. Asimismo, se pretende indagar las transformaciones territoriales en curso, en el departamento de La Guajira y en la región de Antofagasta, bajo la perspectiva de las transiciones justas y sostenibles.

## Temas de discusión.

En tanto se trata de una entrevista semi-estructurada a profundidad, se proponen los siguientes temas de discusión en lugar de un formulario predefinido de preguntas. Éstos se encuentran agrupados por bloques temáticos. Asimismo, se enumeran de forma indicativa,

<footnote n="57">⁵⁷ This semi-structured interview protocol was sent in Spanish and adapted to the requirements and specificities of each informant. The topics presented are only indicative and varied from one interviewee to another.</footnote>
con el propósito de ordenar la conversación en cada bloque. No son, por ende, una guía de estricto cumplimiento durante el desarrollo de la entrevista:

## ACTORES Y POLÍTICAS DE TRANSICIÓN ENERGÉTICA

1. Hitos de política de la transición energética

2. Factores explicativos de la expansión de las fuentes no convencionales de energía renovable.

3. La especificidad de Colombia/Chile frente a la transición energética global.

4. El papel de los organismos internacionales frente a los desafíos de la transformación energética de la región.

5. El rol de la banca de desarrollo en el impulso a las políticas y a los proyectos de energía renovable.

## DESCARBONIZACIÓN DE LA ECONOMÍA

6. Las energías renovables: ¿competencia o complemento de los combustibles fósiles?

7. Futuro del carbón térmico y de las centrales termoeléctricas en Colombia y Chile.

## SOSTENIBILIDAD SOCIAL Y ECONÓMICA

8. Proyectos de ERNC y creación de empleo

9. Pequeñas y grandes empresas generadoras de energía frente a la expansión de las ERNC.

10. Aceptación social de los proyectos de ERNC.

## HACIA UNA TRANSICIÓN JUSTA

11. Retos de las energías renovables frente a la pobreza energética y la reducción de las brechas de acceso.

12. Impactos sociales y ambientales de los proyectos de generación eléctrica de fuentes no convencionales.

13. Gobernanza y participación en el diseño de las políticas energéticas.
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Tables & Figures Index

<table><tr><td>Table 1. Case selection criteria</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Table 2. Key characteristics of the regional case studies</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Table 3. Thematic Content Analysis Matrix</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>Table 4. Key energy governance institutions in Chile and Colombia</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Table 5. 2022-2023 Firm Energy Obligations auction overall results by source</td><td>99</td></tr><tr><td>Table 6. Access to electricity in the municipalities of La Guajira</td><td>107</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>Figure 1.1. World GHG emissions by sector, end use/activity and type of gas in 2016</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.2. N-gram “Energy Transition” frequency of occurrence in written sources (1969-2019)</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.3. Selected global milestones for policies, infrastructure, and technology deployment in the Net Zero Emissions scenario</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.4. Six components of IRENA’s Energy Transition Strategy to achieve total mitigation of energy-related emissions by 2050 in a &lt;1.5°C pathway</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.5. CO₂ Emissions per capita in selected countries/regions of the world</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.6. GHG emissions by region and sector in 2018</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.7. Energy consumption pattern by region of the world in 2020</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.8. Political and administrative map of La Guajira</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.9. Contribution of mining to regional GDP in Antofagasta and La Guajira (2008-2019)</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.10. Political and administrative map of Antofagasta</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.11. Diagram of the research phases</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.12. Triangulation between methods</td><td>46</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 1.13. Triangulation within a method</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.1. Energy intensity trajectories in Chile and Colombia (1990-2020)</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.2. Net GHG emissions by IPCC sector in Chile and Colombia in 2012</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.3. Share of fossil fuels and renewables in Chile’s power supply (1990-2019)</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.4. Share of fossil fuels and renewables in Colombia’s power supply (1990-2019)</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.5. Evolution of power supply in Chile by source (1990-2019)</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.6. Evolution of power supply in Colombia by source (1990-2019)</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.7. Chile’s power generation market share by company in 2020</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.8. Colombia’s power generation market share by company in 2020</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 2.9. Timeline of key policies, regulations and milestones for NCRE integration in Chile and Colombia</td><td>68</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.1. Renewable energy potential maps: (a) Mean wind energy density at 100m in the department of La Guajira; (b) PV power potential in Chile</td><td>72</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>Figure 3.2. NCRE projects registered in Antofagasta and La Guajira (2008-2021)</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.3. Prospective expansion map of Colombia's National Transmission System (STN) and Regional Transmission Systems (STRs) with a 2033 horizon</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.4. Maps of NCREs in the studied regions: (a) Spatial distribution of projected wind farms in La Guajira, and coincidence with the territories of Wayúu indigenous communities; (b) Geo-referencing of NCREs at an advanced stage of development in Antofagasta</td><td>77</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.5. Wayúu women near Jeirachí wind turbines</td><td>78</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.6. Plan de Licitaciones (2018-2022); (a) Map of properties earmarked for energy projects; (b) Top 10 communes with the largest surface area to be tendered</td><td>81</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.7. Cerro Dominador solar power complex (PV+CSP plant)</td><td>83</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.8. Hard Coal exports to Chile from La Guajira</td><td>86</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.9. Satellite maps of El Cerrejón: a) Mining titles; b) Historical evolution of pits and dumps</td><td>88</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.10. Information documents for Antofagasta's sacrifice zones</td><td>90</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.11. Coal-fired plants installed capacity by company (2017 vs. 2021)</td><td>93</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.12. First phase retirement schedule for the coal-fired power plants in Tocopilla and Mejillones</td><td>94</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.13. Access to electricity in Colombia by department (2018)</td><td>106</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.14. Access to electricity in Chile by region (2017)</td><td>108</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.15. Penetration of NCRE sources and average electricity prices in Chile (2008-2021)</td><td>111</td></tr><tr><td>Figure 3.16. Participation process for the design of the Just Transition strategy in Chile</td><td>118</td></tr></table>
Résumé

Le mix énergétique de l'Amérique latine est souvent considéré comme le plus propre au monde, en vertu de la forte contribution de l'hydroélectricité et des biocarburants à la consommation d'énergie dans plusieurs pays sud-américains. Pourtant, la région s'est inscrite dans la tendance mondiale de transition vers une économie bas carbone, notamment depuis la proclamation de l'Accord de Paris. Dans ce contexte, certains pays ont été mis en lumière au niveau international pour leurs engagements en matière de réduction des émissions et leurs plans de décarbonisation. C'est précisément le cas de la Colombie et du Chili, les principales économies andines. Grâce principalement à la création d'écosystèmes d'investissement visant à intégrer les énergies renouvelables non conventionnelles (ERNC) dans leurs réseaux électriques nationaux, ces pays sont devenus des leaders régionaux dans le domaine de la transition énergétique. Cependant, en examinant la trajectoire territoriale de leurs principales régions productrices d'énergie, les tensions sous-jacentes à la transformation des systèmes énergétiques deviennent évidentes.

En partant d'une perspective d'économie politique géographique (EPG), ce mémoire est axé sur la comparaison de deux études de cas régionales : d'une part, le département de La Guajira en Colombie, où 16 parcs éoliens étaient en cours de réalisation en 2021 ; d'autre part, la région d'Antofagasta au Chili, où plus de 20 projets à grande échelle et concernant un vaste éventail de technologies énergétiques étaient en phase de construction afin de renforcer la transition du secteur électrique chilien vers les énergies renouvelables. Par conséquent, cette comparaison des nouveaux espaces énergétiques vise à dévoiler les impacts des politiques de transition énergétique au-delà de la rhétorique de l'action climatique. En mettant en rapport l'approche de l'EPG avec un cadre théorique de transition juste pour analyser la reconfiguration du paysage énergétique dans ces deux régions, cette étude cherche finalement à faire ressortir quelques considérations essentielles en matière de justice et d'équité qui sont absentes des cadres de politique énergétique existants en Amérique latine.

Mots clés : transitions énergétiques, Colombie, Chili, La Guajira, Antofagasta, énergies renouvelables non conventionnelles, nouveaux espaces énergétiques, transition juste.

Abstract

It is often repeated that Latin America has the cleanest energy matrix in the world due to the significant share of hydropower and biofuels in several South American countries. Yet, especially since the Paris Agreement proclamation, the region has followed the global trend of transitioning towards a low-carbon economy. In this context, some countries have been spotlighted at the international level for their mitigation commitments and decarbonization plans. This is the case with Colombia and Chile, the main Andean economies. Mainly through the creation of investment ecosystems to integrate non-conventional renewable energies (NCRE) into the grid, these countries have been building regional leadership regarding the energy transition. However, when looking at the territorial trajectory of their energy-producing regions, the tensions emerging from the transformation of national energy systems become evident.

From a geographical political economy (GPE) perspective, this dissertation focuses on comparing two regional case studies: on the one hand, the department of La Guajira in Colombia, where 16 wind farms were underway by 2021; on the other hand, the Antofagasta region in Chile, where more than 20 utility-scale projects from a wide spectrum of NCRE carriers were under construction to continue energizing the shift of the Chilean electricity matrix towards renewables. Therefore, this comparison of
new energy spaces aims to unravel the impacts of energy transition policies beyond the rhetoric of climate action. By bridging this GPE approach with the just transition framework to interpret the reconfiguration of the energy landscape in these places, it seeks to bring to light some key considerations of justice and equity that are absent in existing energy policy frameworks.

**Keywords:** energy transitions, Colombia, Chile, La Guajira, Antofagasta, non-conventional renewable energy, new energy spaces, just transition.