<table><caption>Table F8. Continued.</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulation</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Driver option</th><th>Time range</th><th>Priority<sup>a</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="6">(b) Effects of changes in various drivers to trends</td></tr><tr><td>A3b.7</td><td>Effect of anthropogenic emission speciation on changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with varying anthropogenic emission speciation ratios for Hg(II)<sub>g</sub> : Hg(II)<sub>p</sub> : Hg(0) and all other drivers fixed</td><td>E2010/2020: varying Hg(II)<sub>g</sub> : Hg(II)<sub>p</sub> : Hg(0) ratio<br>All others: 2010</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6">(c) Contributions of regional (Appendix C) anthropogenic emission changes to trends<sup>2</sup></td></tr><tr><td>A3c.1</td><td>Contribution of Arctic emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from the Arctic</td><td>Arctic: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.2</td><td>Contribution of North American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from North America</td><td>North America: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.3</td><td>Contribution of Central American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Central America/Caribbean</td><td>Central America: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.4</td><td>Contribution of South American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from South America</td><td>South America = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.5</td><td>Contribution of European emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Europe/Mediterranean</td><td>Europe = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.6</td><td>Contribution of North Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Eastern European/North Asian countries</td><td>North Asia = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.7</td><td>Contribution of African emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Africa</td><td>Africa = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.8</td><td>Contribution of South Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from South Asia</td><td>South Asia = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.9</td><td>Contribution of East Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from East Asia</td><td>East Asia: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.10 =</td><td>Contribution of Southeast Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Southeast Asia</td><td>Southeast Asia: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.11</td><td>Contribution of Middle Eastern emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from the Middle East</td><td>Middle East: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A3c.12</td><td>Contribution of Oceania emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Oceania</td><td>Oceania = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6">Sensitivity analysis – Uncertainty experiments</td></tr><tr><td>A4.1</td><td>Uncertainties due to anthropogenic emissions data<sup>b</sup></td><td>Sensitivity simulation with second alternative anthropogenic emission inventory</td><td>Ant. = E2010/2020<sub>2</sub><sup>b</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.2</td><td>Uncertainties due to anthropogenic emissions data<sup>b</sup></td><td>Sensitivity simulation with third alternative anthropogenic emission inventory</td><td>Ant. = E2010/2020<sub>3</sub><sup>b</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.3</td><td>Uncertainties due to anthropogenic emissions data<sup>b</sup></td><td>Sensitivity simulation with mosaic inventory with regional emission inventories (including the Tsinghua inventory for China) substituted inside the global inventory</td><td>Ant. = E_mos<sup>c</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.4</td><td>Uncertainties due to legacy Hg emission magnitude and trend</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with ocean surface concentrations magnitude and trend based on mass balance modeling results</td><td>Ocean = scaled by mass balance model results</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><caption>Table F8. Continued.</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulation</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Driver option</th><th>Time range</th><th>Priority<sup>a</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="6"><em>Sensitivity analysis – uncertainty experiments</em></td></tr><tr><td>A4.5</td><td>Uncertainties due to legacy Hg emission magnitude and trend</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with land legacy emissions magnitude and trend based on mass balance modeling results</td><td>Land scaled by mass balance model results</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.6</td><td>Uncertainties due to air–sea exchange processes</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with alternative parameterization for air–sea exchange</td><td>Using air–sea exchange parameterization from Nightingale or Wanninkhof (depending on what was used for A1)</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.7</td><td>Uncertainties due to soil Hg emissions</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with alternative soil Hg emission dataset</td><td>Each model uses their own in-house soil emissions parameterization or dataset here</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A4.8</td><td>Uncertainties due to model resolution</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with enhanced model spatial resolution</td><td>Model resolution increased</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6"><em>Sensitivity analysis – idealized experiments</em></td></tr><tr><td>A5.1</td><td>Sensitivity of anthropogenic emission speciation</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with all anthropogenic emissions as Hg(0)</td><td>E2010/2020 = released with speciation ratios 100 : 0 : 0 Hg(0) : Hg(II)<sub>g</sub> : Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.2</td><td>Sensitivity of anthropogenic emission seasonality</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with imposed seasonality of anthropogenic Hg emissions</td><td>e.g., Hg emissions maximum during winter</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.3</td><td>Sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with perturbed Hg oxidation rates</td><td>Hg(0) oxidation rates enhanced +50%</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.4</td><td>Sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with perturbed Hg(II) aqueous photoreduction rates</td><td>Hg(II) aqueous reduction enhanced +50%</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.6</td><td>Sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with perturbed Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>-Hg(II)<sub>p</sub> gas–particle partitioning</td><td>Hg(II)<sub>p</sub> partitioning rate enhanced +50%</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.7</td><td>Sensitivity of Hg(0) dry deposition velocities</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with perturbed Hg(0) dry deposition velocities to land</td><td>Hg(0) dry deposition velocity to land doubled</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.8</td><td>Sensitivity of models due to vegetation</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with vegetation increased by a certain factor (idealizing future greening)</td><td>LAI increased by a factor of 50%</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.9</td><td>Sensitivity of models to air–sea exchange processes</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with alternative parameterization for air–sea exchange based on Baltic Sea measurements</td><td>Using air–sea exchange parameterization from Osterwalder et al. (2021)</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>A5.10</td><td>Sensitivity of models to sea ice</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with all sea ice removed</td><td>Sea ice = 0</td><td>2015</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6"><em>Future scenarios<sup>3</sup></em></td></tr><tr><td>A6.1</td><td>Future changes of Hg levels due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic emissions and environmental factors</td><td>Simulations of future Hg levels using scenarios of anthropogenic emissions, projected environmental conditions and estimates for legacy/geogenic emissions</td><td></td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>A6.2</td><td>Effect of anthropogenic emissions on future changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with varying anthropogenic emissions<sup>3</sup></td><td>E2010/2020 = varying All others: 2020</td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>A6.3</td><td>Effect of environmental conditions on changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with varying environmental conditions and legacy emissions<sup>3</sup></td><td>E2010/2020 = 2020 All others: varying</td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr></tbody></table>

<footnote><sup>a</sup> Priority ranking: (1) "Core simulations", expected to be performed by all global models; (2) "Optional simulations", expected to be performed by as many models as possible; and (3) "Future simulations" to be conducted by a multimodel study following the modeling and analysis study based on retrospective simulations (i.e., priority rankings 1 and 2). <sup>b</sup> Simulations with the other emission inventories will depend on availability of these inventories at the time of the multimodel project (see Sect. 3.2.1 for discussion of inventories). <sup>c</sup> Abbreviations: E_mos – Mosaic inventory, i.e., E2010/2020 + available regional emission inventories for the time period. <sup>1</sup> The contribution of a source type to Hg levels is obtained by subtraction of results of the perturbation simulation from results of the baseline simulation (Simulation A1). The contribution of oceanic Hg re-emissions is calculated by subtracting all other source simulations (A2.1–A2.4) from baseline (A1). <sup>2</sup> The contribution of a factor to changes in Hg levels is obtained by subtraction of results of the perturbation simulation from results of the baseline simulation (Simulation A1). <sup>3</sup> The contribution of a factor to future changes in Hg levels is obtained by subtraction of results of the perturbation simulation from results of the future baseline simulation (Simulation A6.1).</footnote>
<table><caption>Table F9. Ocean multimodel ensemble simulations.</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulations</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Related atmospheric scenario</th><th>Driver option</th><th>Time range</th><th>Priority<sup>a</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="7">(1) Baseline</td></tr><tr><td>O1<br>(base case)</td><td>Spatial and temporal trends of Hg levels</td><td>Global-scale simulations of oceanic Hg transport using the state-of-the-art model configuration, with upper boundary conditions (i.e., atmospheric Hg concentrations and deposition fluxes) from atmospheric model ensemble results.</td><td>A1</td><td>Harmonized default drivers as described in Table F6</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">(2) Source contributions</td></tr><tr><td>O2.1</td><td>Relative contribution of anthropogenic emissions</td><td>Perturbation run with no anthropogenic emissions.</td><td>A2.1</td><td>Ant. = 0</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O2.2</td><td>Relative contribution of geogenic emissions</td><td>Perturbation run with no geogenic emissions.</td><td>A2.2</td><td>Geo. = 0</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O2.3</td><td>Relative contribution of riverine Hg inflow</td><td>Perturbation runs with no riverine Hg influx.</td><td>A1</td><td>Rivers = 0</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O2.4</td><td>Impact of food web Hg uptake on marine Hg cycling</td><td>Model runs with and without food web interactions.</td><td>A1</td><td>Bioacc. = 0.</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O2.5</td><td>Relative contributions of ASGM emissions.</td><td>Perturbation simulation with no ASGM emissions.</td><td>A2.5</td><td>ASGM = 0</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O2.6</td><td>Relative contributions of MC Annex D sources</td><td>Perturbation simulation with no emissions from MC Annex D sources</td><td>A2.6</td><td>Annex D = 0</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">(3) Trend analysis – identifying drivers of trends</td></tr><tr><td>O3.1<br>(Nature simulation)</td><td>Contributions of anthropogenic emissions and environmental drivers to changes in Hg levels.</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 anthropogenic emissions</td><td>A3a.1</td><td>E2010/2020 = 2010</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>O3.2</td><td>Effect of interannual variability of meteorological drivers.</td><td>Perturbation run with varying meteorological boundary conditions and all other drivers fixed.</td><td>A3b.1</td><td>Meteorological fields varying. All others: 2010</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.3</td><td>Contribution of Arctic emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from the Arctic</td><td>A3c.1</td><td>Arctic = 2010 All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.4</td><td>Contribution of North American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from North America</td><td>A3c.2</td><td>North America = 2010 All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.5</td><td>Contribution of Central American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Central America/Caribbean</td><td>A3c.3</td><td>Central America = 2010 All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.6</td><td>Contribution of South American emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from South America</td><td>A3c.4</td><td>South America: 2010 All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.7</td><td>Contribution of European emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Europe/Mediterranean</td><td>A3c.5</td><td>Europe = 2010 All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><caption>Table F9. Continued.</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulations</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Related atmospheric scenario</th><th>Driver option</th><th>Time range</th><th>Priority<sup>a</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>O3.8</td><td>Contribution of North Asian emissions on changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from eastern Europe/North Asia countries</td><td>A3c.6</td><td>N. Asia = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.9</td><td>Contribution of African emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Africa</td><td>A3c.7</td><td>Africa = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.10</td><td>Contribution of South Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from South Asia</td><td>A3c.8</td><td>South Asia = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.11</td><td>Contribution of East Asian emissions to changes in Hg level</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from East Asia</td><td>A3c.9</td><td>East Asia = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.12</td><td>Contribution of Southeast Asian emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Southeast Asia</td><td>A3c.10</td><td>Southeast Asia: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.13</td><td>Contribution of Middle Eastern emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from the Middle East</td><td>A3c.11</td><td>Middle East: 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O3.14</td><td>Contribution of Oceania emissions to changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation simulation with fixed 2010 emissions from Oceania</td><td>A3c.12</td><td>Oceania = 2010<br>All others: varying</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">(4) Uncertainty analysis</td></tr><tr><td>O4.1</td><td>Uncertainties due to atmospheric deposition data<sup>c</sup></td><td>Sensitivity runs with alternative atmospheric deposition data from the second, alternative emission inventory</td><td>A4.1</td><td>Ant. = E2010/2020_2<sup>c</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.2</td><td>Uncertainties due to atmospheric deposition data<sup>c</sup></td><td>Sensitivity runs with alternative atmospheric deposition data from third, alternative emission inventory</td><td>A4.2</td><td>Ant. = E2010/2020_3<sup>c</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.3</td><td>Uncertainties due to anthropogenic emissions data<sup>c</sup></td><td>Sensitivity simulation with mosaic inventory with regional emissions inventories (including the Tsinghua inventory for China) substituted inside global inventory</td><td>A4.3</td><td>Ant. = E_mos<sup>b</sup></td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.4</td><td>Uncertainties due to oceanic Hg chemistry</td><td>Sensitivity runs with alternative chemical mechanisms and partitioning</td><td>A1</td><td>Use an alternative chemistry scheme</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.5</td><td>Uncertainties due to air–sea exchange processes</td><td>Sensitivity runs with alternative parameterizations of air–sea exchange</td><td>A4.6</td><td>Using air–sea exchange parameterization from Nightingale or Wanninkhof (depending on what was used for O1)</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.6</td><td>Uncertainties due to air–sea exchange processes</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with alternative parameterization for air–sea exchange based on Baltic Sea measurements</td><td>A5.8</td><td>Using air–sea exchange parameterization from Osterwalder21</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>O4.7</td><td>Uncertainties due to model resolution</td><td>Sensitivity simulation with enhanced model spatial resolution</td><td>A4.8</td><td>Model resolution increased</td><td>2010–2020</td><td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><caption>**Table F9. Continued.**</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulations</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Related atmospheric scenario</th><th>Driver option</th><th>Time range</th><th>Priority<sup>a</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="7">(5) Future scenarios</td></tr><tr><td>O5.1<br>(Future baseline simulation)</td><td>Future changes of Hg levels due to the cumulative effect of anthropogenic emissions and environmental factors</td><td>Simulations of future oceanic Hg levels using forcing from climate models and scenarios of future anthropogenic emissions, and estimates for riverine and geogenic emissions (2020–2050)</td><td>A6.1</td><td>Future emission scenarios and climate model forcing</td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>O5.2</td><td>Effect of anthropogenic emissions on future changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation run with varying anthropogenic emissions.</td><td>A6.2</td><td>Future emission scenario all other drivers = 2020</td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>O5.3</td><td>Effect of meteorological/ocean physical state on future changes in Hg levels</td><td>Perturbation run with fixed meteorological boundary conditions from climate models</td><td>A6.3</td><td>Climate model forcing All other drivers: 2020</td><td>2020–2050</td><td>3</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><caption>**Table F10.** Mass balance model simulations. All simulations will be performed with the model ensemble (see Sect. 5.3) to account for uncertainties in Hg emissions, rate constants, and fluxes. In addition, all the simulations listed here are “core simulations”.</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulation</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Time range*</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="4"><em>Baseline</em></td></tr><tr><td>M1</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions</td><td>Rates constructed using “passing” model configurations (see Fig. 9)</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation and analysis)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="4"><em>Secondary emission and reservoir mass trends[2010–2020]</em></td></tr><tr><td>M2–M11</td><td>Pre-YYYY legacy</td><td>Primary emissions eliminated as of year YYYY (YYYY = 2010 to 2019)</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="4"><em>Source attribution</em></td></tr><tr><td>M12</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to Annex D emissions to air[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from Annex D source categories. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td>M13</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to ASGM emissions to air[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from ASGM. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td>M14</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to all other emissions to air[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from all source categories other than Annex D and ASGM emissions. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr></tbody></table>

<footnote><sup>a</sup> Priority ranking: (1) “Core simulations”, expected to be performed by all global models; (2) “Optional simulations”, expected to be performed by as many models as possible; and (3) “Future simulations” to be conducted by a multimodel study following the modeling and analysis study based on retrospective simulations (i.e., priority rankings 1 and 2).</footnote>

<footnote><sup>b</sup> Abbreviations: E_mos – Mosaic inventory: E2010/2020 + available regional emission inventories for the time period. <sup>c</sup> Simulations with the other emission inventories will depend on availability of these inventories at the time of the multimodel project (see Sect. 3.2.1 for a discussion of the inventories).</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table F10. Continued.**</caption><thead><tr><th>Simulation</th><th>Purpose</th><th>Description</th><th>Time range*</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="4"><em>Source attribution</em></td></tr><tr><td>M15</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to Annex D releases onto land and water[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from Annex D source categories. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td>M16</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to ASGM releases onto land and water[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from ASGM. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td>M17</td><td>Temporal trends in Hg levels and legacy emissions attributable to all other releases onto land and water[all-time]</td><td>Calculate legacy emissions and reservoir Hg masses attributable to emissions from all source categories other than Annex D and ASGM emissions. Simulate entire ensemble for each of [lower, central, upper] estimates of category emission. Repeat for available emission inventories.</td><td>1500–2020 (simulation); 2010–2020 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="4"><em>Future scenarios</em></td></tr><tr><td>M18</td><td>Hg levels and legacy emissions under future anthropogenic emission trajectory</td><td>Calculate legacy emission and reservoir Hg mass trend [2020–2050] under future anthropogenic emission scenario(s)</td><td>1500–2050 (simulation); 2020–2050 (analysis)</td></tr><tr><td>M19</td><td>Recovery timescale of Hg cycling</td><td>Primary emissions and releases eliminated as of year 2020</td><td>1500 – natural state of Hg cycling</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><caption>**Table F11. Atmospheric model simulation output variables.**</caption><thead><tr><th>Type</th><th>Variables</th><th>Temporal frequency</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="3"><em>3D variables</em></td></tr><tr><td>Mixing ratio of Hg species</td><td>Hg(0), Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>, Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>Monthly</td></tr><tr><td>Chemical reaction fluxes for Hg species</td><td>Gross oxidation of Hg(0), gross reduction of Hg(II)<sub>g</sub> to Hg(0)</td><td>Monthly</td></tr><tr><td>Meteorological parameters</td><td>Air pressure, air temperature, specific humidity, air density, volume of a grid cell</td><td>Monthly</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><em>2D variables</em></td></tr><tr><td>Volume mixing ratio of Hg species (surface layer)</td><td>Hg(0), Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>, Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>Daily and monthly averaged diurnal cycle</td></tr><tr><td>Mass concentration of Hg species (surface layer)</td><td>Hg(0), Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>, Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Vertical column density of Hg species</td><td>Hg(0), Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>, Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Wet deposition</td><td>THg</td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Dry deposition</td><td>Hg(0), Hg(II)<sub>g</sub>, Hg(II)<sub>p</sub></td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Mixing ratio of major reactants</td><td>Br, OH, Cl, O<sub>3</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>,...</td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Emissions</td><td>Net oceanic flux of Hg(0), land re-emissions of Hg(0)</td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Meteorological parameters (surface layer)</td><td>Temperature, precipitation, surface pressure, wind speed at 10 m height</td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Land surface parameters</td><td>Fraction of snow coverage in a grid cell, fraction of sea ice coverage in a grid cell</td><td>Daily</td></tr><tr><td>Land surface parameters</td><td>Model orography, fraction of high vegetation coverage in a grid cell, fraction of low vegetation coverage in a grid cell, fraction of bare land in a grid cell, fraction of water in a grid cell</td><td>Time-invariant</td></tr></tbody></table>

<footnote>* All simulations begin from the analytical steady state calculated for model year + geogenic emissions.</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table F12.** Ocean model simulation output variables.</caption><thead><tr><th>Type</th><th>Variables</th><th>Temporal frequency</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>3D variables</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Concentration of Hg species in water</td><td>THg, Hg(0), Hg(II), MMHg, DMHg, DGM</td><td rowspan="4">Monthly/annual</td></tr><tr><td>Concentration of Hg species on particles</td><td>THg, Hg(II), MeHg</td></tr><tr><td>Concentration of Hg species in biota</td><td>THg, MeHg</td></tr><tr><td>Concentration of Hg species on biota</td><td>THg, MeHg</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>2D variables</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Air-sea exchange</td><td>Hg(0), DMHg</td><td rowspan="2">Daily/monthly/annual</td></tr><tr><td>Surface gaseous Hg</td><td>Hg(0), DMHg, DGM</td></tr><tr><td>Atmospheric concentrations (input)</td><td>Hg(II)</td><td rowspan="3">Monthly/annual</td></tr><tr><td>Atmospheric deposition (input)</td><td>Hg(II)</td></tr><tr><td>Hg loads in sediments</td><td>THg</td></tr><tr><td>Net sedimentation</td><td>THg</td><td></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>Secondary variables</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Nutrients</td><td>N, P, Si, Fe</td><td rowspan="5">Monthly/annual</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Carbon cycle</td><td>Total, C, DOC, POC</td></tr><tr><td>Total = DOC + POC + biota</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Biological variables</td><td>Net primary productivity</td></tr><tr><td>Phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthos</td></tr><tr><td>Physical variables</td><td>Velocity, salinity, temperature, wind speed, air temperature, and surface shortwave radiation</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

*Data availability.* The anthropogenic emission datasets analyzed in this study are available publicly (EDGAR: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12155169, Muntean et al., 2017; AMAP: https://doi.org/10.34894/F3J911, Steenhuisen and Wilson, 2024, and https://doi.org/10.34894/SZ2K0I, Steenhuisen and Wilson, 2022; and STREETS: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11717314, Wu, 2024).

*Author contributions.* AD led the overall design and development of the study and writing of the article with contributions from all the authors, listed in alphabetical order with the lead authors identified in bold: AD, HA, JB, FB, BE, AF, XF, BG, CG, YH, IMH, II, JK, CJL, IL, RM, DM, MM, PR, EMR, AR, NES, FDS, ALS, FS, OT, SW, XW, SW, RW, QW, YZ, JZ, WZ, and SZ.

*Competing interests.* The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.

*Disclaimer.* Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors.

*Acknowledgements.* We thank Terry Keating, co-chair of the Minamata Convention OESG and the LRTAP Convention TF-HTAP, for organizing the modeling initiative by fostering the dialog with international institutions and contributing to the discussion throughout the development of this work. We thank Jenny Fisher for the review and comments on the manuscript.

*Financial support.* Qingru Wu was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 42394094 and 2222604). Aryeh Feinberg was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. P2EZP2_195424), the US National Science Foundation (grant no. 1924148), and Horizon Europe (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 101103544). Contribution of Oleg Travnikov was funded by the EU GMOS-Train project of the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 860497 and co-funded by the ARRS Research Programme P1-0143 and J1-3033 (IsoCont). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their employers or funding agencies.

*Review statement.* This paper was edited by Yilong Wang and reviewed by four anonymous referees.
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