# Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas

Nina Graveline, Marta Debolini, David Dorchies, Filippo Imbesi, Juliette Le Gallo, Sébastien Loubier, Kevin Bosirany Orlando, Jean-Marc Touzard, Katrin Erdlenbruch

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

## To cite this version:

Nina Graveline, Marta Debolini, David Dorchies, Filippo Imbesi, Juliette Le Gallo, et al. Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas. Séminaire 2024 du métaprogramme "Agriculture et Forêt face au changement climatique: adaptation et atténuation" (CLIMAE), Mar 2024, Lyon, France. hal-04529186

HAL Id: hal-04529186

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04529186

Submitted on 2 Apr 2024

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

HAL
open science

# Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas

Nina Graveline, Marta Debolini, David Dorchies, Filippo Imbesi, Juliette Le Gallo, Sébastien Loubier, Kevin Bosirany Orlando, Jean-Marc Touzard,

Katrin Erdlenbruch

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

## To cite this version:

Nina Graveline, Marta Debolini, David Dorchies, Filippo Imbesi, Juliette Le Gallo, et al. Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas. Séminaire 2024 du métaprogramme "Agriculture et Forêt face au changement climatique: adaptation et atténuation" (CLIMAE), Mar 2024, Lyon, France. hal-04529186

HAL Id: hal-04529186

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04529186v1

Submitted on 2 Apr 2024

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

Open licence - etalab
INRAO

Nina Graveline, Juliette Le Gallo,
Alexandre Alix, Jean-Marc Touzard
(UMR Innovation)

David Dorchies, Kevin Orlando,
Sébastien Loubier (UMR G-EAU)

Marta Debolini, Filippo Imbesi
(CMMC, Italy)

Katrin Erdlenbruch (UMR CEE-M)

# Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

TALANOA
- water -

Aude aval & médiane : 3288 km²

- 130 Mm3 water withdrawals /~ 30% deficit

- 70% uptakes from agriculture (90% wine)

## Ambition: put stakeholders at the core to imagine and foster transformation

Stakeholder engagement : A multi-actor group : water users, state, water managers & NGOs
> 40 stakeholders/workshop ; > 200 stakeholders in contact

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

Stakeholders participation workshops : scenarios and adaptation strategies

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

Serious games: Stakeholders imagine & assess adaptation strategies

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

Exchanging on modeling with stakeholders

**Problem statement**

* climate change increases significantly the water needs by crops
* & induces developments of irrigation areas
* while water resources are getting scarce because of reduced and distributional shifts of rain patterns, particularly in the Mediterranean region

**Aim**
This approach & project aims at producing knowledge on alternative strategies but also ambitions to take part, and foster adaptation while participating to the ecosystem of adaptation.

**Research questions**

* What are the robust and efficient strategies that would satisfy both the challenges of climate change adaptation by the farming sector and sustainable water management ?
* How to build and assess future scenarios and pathways of agricultural development and water demands and robust adaptation strategies ?

### Downscaling shared-Socio-economic Pathways SSPs to the Aude basin

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

### Strategies

* Measures (more than 100 identified) combined in strategies

* Over the 7 identified > 4 selected by the group :

Governance / agroecology / diversification / water resources development

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

### Foresight scenarios quantification

Climate change induces smaller changes than socio-economic development on water demand

### Combining foresight & agronomic model results

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

Calculation of water demands by combining agronomic model results & scenarios

### Coupling economic, agronomic, hydrological models

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

### Hydrological model results (preliminary)

Different water availabilities are projected depending on SSPs/RCPs

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

## Perspectives

* Finalisation of the integrated model

* Co-design the follow-up of the interactions between researchers & stakeholders to boost engagement & assess robustness of alternative strategies & ensure impact

=> **Connection to policy** : Discussions with the public basin authority and the State to explore the role of TALANOA in the future Water Basin Management Plan (PTGE) study

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

UMR Innovation
Montpellier, Occitanie

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

UMR
INNOVATION

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

Plus d'informations sur le projet :
nina.graveline@inrae.fr
https://talanoa-water-france.hub.inrae.fr/

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

PRIMA
PARTNERSHIP FOR RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

G-EAU

Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages
Water matters

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

cmcc

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>
INRAO

Nina Graveline, Juliette Le Gallo, Alexandre Alix, Jean-Marc Touzard (UMR Innovation)
David Dorchies, Kevin Orlando, Sébastien Loubier (UMR G-EAU)
Marta Debolini, Filippo Imbesi (CMMC,Italy)
Katrin Erdlenbruch (UMR CEE-M)

# Combining modelling and participation to build transformational water management & agricultural adaptation scenarios in water stressed areas

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

TALANOA
- water -

Aude aval & médiane : 3288 km²

- 130 Mm3 water withdrawals /~ 30% deficit

- 70% uptakes from agriculture (90% wine)

## Ambition: put stakeholders at the core to imagine and foster transformation

Stakeholder engagement : A multi-actor group : water users, state, water managers & NGOs
> 40 stakeholders/workshop ; > 200 stakeholders in contact

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

Stakeholders participation workshops : scenarios and adaptation strategies

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

Serious games: Stakeholders imagine & assess adaptation strategies

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

Exchanging on modeling with stakeholders

**Problem statement**

* climate change increases significantly the water needs by crops
* & induces developments of irrigation areas
* while water resources are getting scarce because of reduced and distributional shifts of rain patterns, particularly in the Mediterranean region

**Aim**
This approach & project aims at producing knowledge on alternative strategies but also ambitions to take part, and foster adaptation while participating to the ecosystem of adaptation.

**Research questions**

* What are the robust and efficient strategies that would satisfy both the challenges of climate change adaptation by the farming sector and sustainable water management ?
* How to build and assess future scenarios and pathways of agricultural development and water demands and robust adaptation strategies ?

### Downscaling shared-Socio-economic Pathways SSPs to the Aude basin

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

### Strategies

* Measures (more than 100 identified) combined in strategies

* Over the 7 identified > 4 selected by the group :

Governance / agroecology / diversification / water resources development

Irrigation requirements

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

Variation between period 2020-2050 and 2020-2080

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

### Coupling economic, agronomic, hydrological models

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

### Foresight scenarios quantification

Climate change induces smaller changes than socio-economic development on water demand

* Combining foresight & agronomic model results

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

Calculation of water demands by combining agronomic model results & scenarios

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

### Hydrological model results (preliminary)

Different water availabilities are projected depending on SSPs/RCPs

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

## Perspectives

* Finalisation of the integrated model

* Co-design the follow-up of the interactions between researchers & stakeholders to boost engagement & assess robustness of alternative strategies & ensure impact

=> **Connection to policy** : Discussions with the public basin authority and the State to explore the role of TALANOA in the future Water Basin Management Plan (PTGE) study

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>

UMR Innovation Montpellier, Occitanie

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /></figure>

UMR
INNOVATION

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>

Plus d'informations sur le projet :
nina.graveline@inrae.fr
https://talanoa-water-france.hub.inrae.fr/

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

PRIMA
PARTNERSHIP FOR RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

G-EAU

Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages Water matters

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

cmcc

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>