of the perturbations would trigger the rest of the disturbances, hinting in some kind of deep connections between
these latitudes. Although one could think that the NEB-SEB anticorrelation are related to the Global Upheav-
als, these seem to occur only at specific epochs and are thought to be more frequent during SEB revival events
Rogers (2007), unlike the long-term coupling of the NEB and SEB.

A potential cause for an anticorrelation in the tropospheric temperatures and aerosols opacity between belts situated in the same hemisphere, could be the meridional propagation of tropospheric waves, following a similar mechanism to that observed in Saturn during 2011–2014 (Fletcher, Guerlet, et al., 2017). At that epoch, stratospheric waves emanating from a hot and large stratospheric vortex near 40°N disrupted Saturn's Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation (Fletcher, Guerlet, et al., 2017; Guerlet et al., 2018). However, meridional propagation of waves between hemispheres is unlikely due to the change in the Coriolis force.

Here we speculate that the NEB-SEB anticorrelation observed between 2 and 5 bar and 330 mbar originates in the deep troposphere, via a deep connection of these belts via cylinders parallel to the rotation axis. These would be most effective equatorward of ±16° where the cylinders do not intersect with the dynamics of a region of metallic hydrogen (Cao & Stevenson, 2017; Liu et al., 2008), in agreement with the highest negative correlation coefficients found at ~14° latitude. Future studies analyzing the temporal variability of Jupiter's deep atmosphere using Juno Microwave Radiometer could shed some light on the causes of the NEB and SEB anticorrelation.

7. Conclusions

The continued monitoring of Jupiter in the mid-infrared from ground-based observatories during the last four
decades provides essential long-term context of Jupiter's atmospheric variability. In this study, we made use of a
large dataset of images captured between 7 and 25 µm between early 1984 and late 2019 to explore Jupiter's climate
over three jovian years. In particular, we (a) characterize the long-term variability of Jupiter's atmosphere in each
of the wavelengths analyzed; (b) retrieve stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, as well as tropospheric
aerosol opacity, to explore hemispherical asymmetries, both seasonal and non-seasonal changes, and equatorial
oscillations; and (c) investigate thermal and aerosol opacity changes during cyclic and non-cyclic disturbances
of the belt/zone structure. Although some of the mid-infrared images used in this study have been previously
published (e.g., Antuñano et al., 2021; Fletcher, Orton, et al., 2018; Fletcher, Orton, Sinclair, et al., 2017, Orton
et al., 1994, 2023), this is the first study that analyses simultaneously long-term ground-based images captured in
5 and 8 filters in a systematic fashion. The conclusions of this study are summarized below:

*   **Hemispherical asymmetry:** Stratospheric temperatures at 10 mbar retrieved from the 5-point and 8-point spectral cubes show persistent warmer northern latitudes poleward of 30°, compared to their conjugate latitudes in the south. The stratospheric temperature asymmetry between hemispheres increases with latitude, reaching differences of $3.1 \pm 2.6$ K at 40° and $2.7 \pm 2.5$ K at 30°. The nature of this asymmetry is still unknown, although it could be related to (a) the higher number density of aerosols found poleward of 30°N at 50 mbar (Zhang et al., 2013) leading to stronger radiative heating, and (b) the differences in hemispheric solar insolation (Guerlet et al., 2020). In contrast, the southern upper troposphere at 330 mbar appears to be overall warmer than the northern latitudes poleward of 30°. However, thermal differences between hemispheres at this pressure are only around 1 K. At deeper levels this asymmetry is no longer detected.

*   The temporal variability of stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures also display a remarkable asymmetry between hemispheres at latitudes poleward of 30°. At these pressures and latitudes, temperatures are observed to oscillate with a 10 to 14-year period (i.e., very close to the jovian year) in anti-phase between hemispheres, as reported by Orton et al. (2023). Comparisons of these thermal oscillations to seasonal variations reveal that they are unlikely to be solely related to radiative heating as temperature peaks do not coincide with solstices nor with the expected seasonal lag (Orton et al., 2023). Numerical radiative-climate models (Guerlet et al., 2020) predict smaller peak-to-peak thermal oscillations in the southern hemisphere, suggesting that the thermal oscillation that we observe is not strictly seasonal.

*   **Belt/zone structure:** Our results confirm the anticorrelation between the aerosol opacity and tropospheric temperatures at 500 mbar - typically white and cold zones present high aerosol opacity, while usually warm and low-albedo belts display low aerosol opacity. The NEB displays the lowest aerosol opacity and the largest tropospheric temperatures, while the contrary is true for the EZ.

*   In this study we also confirm thermal and/or aerosol opacity changes during NEB expansion and SEB fading events. During some, but not all, NEB expansions, the NTrZ at 17°–22°N displays subtle increases of <1.5 K
of the perturbations would trigger the rest of the disturbances, hinting in some kind of deep connections between
these latitudes. Although one could think that the NEB-SEB anticorrelation are related to the Global Upheav-
als, these seem to occur only at specific epochs and are thought to be more frequent during SEB revival events
Rogers (2007), unlike the long-term coupling of the NEB and SEB.

A potential cause for an anticorrelation in the tropospheric temperatures and aerosols opacity between belts situated in the same hemisphere, could be the meridional propagation of tropospheric waves, following a similar mechanism to that observed in Saturn during 2011–2014 (Fletcher, Guerlet, et al., 2017). At that epoch, stratospheric waves emanating from a hot and large stratospheric vortex near 40°N disrupted Saturn's Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation (Fletcher, Guerlet, et al., 2017; Guerlet et al., 2018). However, meridional propagation of waves between hemispheres is unlikely due to the change in the Coriolis force.

Here we speculate that the NEB-SEB anticorrelation observed between 2 and 5 bar and 330 mbar originates in the deep troposphere, via a deep connection of these belts via cylinders parallel to the rotation axis. These would be most effective equatorward of ±16° where the cylinders do not intersect with the dynamics of a region of metallic hydrogen (Cao & Stevenson, 2017; Liu et al., 2008), in agreement with the highest negative correlation coefficients found at ~14° latitude. Future studies analyzing the temporal variability of Jupiter's deep atmosphere using Juno Microwave Radiometer could shed some light on the causes of the NEB and SEB anticorrelation.

7. Conclusions

The continued monitoring of Jupiter in the mid-infrared from ground-based observatories during the last four
decades provides essential long-term context of Jupiter's atmospheric variability. In this study, we made use of a
large dataset of images captured between 7 and 25 µm between early 1984 and late 2019 to explore Jupiter's climate
over three jovian years. In particular, we (a) characterize the long-term variability of Jupiter's atmosphere in each
of the wavelengths analyzed; (b) retrieve stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, as well as tropospheric
aerosol opacity, to explore hemispherical asymmetries, both seasonal and non-seasonal changes, and equatorial
oscillations; and (c) investigate thermal and aerosol opacity changes during cyclic and non-cyclic disturbances
of the belt/zone structure. Although some of the mid-infrared images used in this study have been previously
published (e.g., Antuñano et al., 2021; Fletcher, Orton, et al., 2018; Fletcher, Orton, Sinclair, et al., 2017, Orton
et al., 1994, 2023), this is the first study that analyses simultaneously long-term ground-based images captured in
5 and 8 filters in a systematic fashion. The conclusions of this study are summarized below:

*   **Hemispherical asymmetry:** Stratospheric temperatures at 10 mbar retrieved from the 5-point and 8-point spectral cubes show persistent warmer northern latitudes poleward of 30°, compared to their conjugate latitudes in the south. The stratospheric temperature asymmetry between hemispheres increases with latitude, reaching differences of $3.1 \pm 2.6$ K at 40° and $2.7 \pm 2.5$ K at 30°. The nature of this asymmetry is still unknown, although it could be related to (a) the higher number density of aerosols found poleward of 30°N at 50 mbar (Zhang et al., 2013) leading to stronger radiative heating, and (b) the differences in hemispheric solar insolation (Guerlet et al., 2020). In contrast, the southern upper troposphere at 330 mbar appears to be overall warmer than the northern latitudes poleward of 30°. However, thermal differences between hemispheres at this pressure are only around 1 K. At deeper levels this asymmetry is no longer detected.

*   The temporal variability of stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures also display a remarkable asymmetry between hemispheres at latitudes poleward of 30°. At these pressures and latitudes, temperatures are observed to oscillate with a 10 to 14-year period (i.e., very close to the jovian year) in anti-phase between hemispheres, as reported by Orton et al. (2023). Comparisons of these thermal oscillations to seasonal variations reveal that they are unlikely to be solely related to radiative heating as temperature peaks do not coincide with solstices nor with the expected seasonal lag (Orton et al., 2023). Numerical radiative-climate models (Guerlet et al., 2020) predict smaller peak-to-peak thermal oscillations in the southern hemisphere, suggesting that the thermal oscillation that we observe is not strictly seasonal.

*   **Belt/zone structure:** Our results confirm the anticorrelation between the aerosol opacity and tropospheric temperatures at 500 mbar - typically white and cold zones present high aerosol opacity, while usually warm and low-albedo belts display low aerosol opacity. The NEB displays the lowest aerosol opacity and the largest tropospheric temperatures, while the contrary is true for the EZ.

*   In this study we also confirm thermal and/or aerosol opacity changes during NEB expansion and SEB fading events. During some, but not all, NEB expansions, the NTrZ at 17°–22°N displays subtle increases of <1.5 K
Acknowledgments

AA, LNF, MTR and HM were supported by a European Research Council Consolidator Grant under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. Grant agreement number 723890, at the University of Leicester. This work made use of the ALICE high-performance computing facility at the University of Leicester. AA was also supported by Grant PID2019-109467GB-I00 funded by 1042 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/, by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT1742-22 and by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación programme, Grant agreement number IJC2019-040328-I/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. PTD was supported by UK Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and by Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR). A portion of this work was performed by GSO, JAS and TWM at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA. GSO, LNF, JAS, TWM, and AA were Visiting Astronomers at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract 80HQTR19D0030 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This research is based, in part, on data collected at the Subaru Telescope, which is operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan; we are honored and grateful for the opportunity of observing the Universe from Maunakea, which has cultural, historical and natural significance in Hawaii. Some of data presented herein using the Subaru Telescope were obtained by way of an exchange program with the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation. The authors wish to recognize and acknowledge the very significant cultural role and reverence that the summit of Maunakea has always had within the indigenous Hawaiian community. We are most fortunate to have the opportunity to conduct observations from this mountain.

at 500 mbar accompanied by small decreases in the aerosol opacity, in agreement with Fletcher, Guerlet, et al. (2017). During SEB fading events, our retrievals show that, although the aerosol opacity seems to start increasing almost contemporaneously at all latitudes in the SEB, the most equatorward latitudes (8°–10°S) reach their maxima in aerosol opacity months before the poleward latitudes of the SEB (12°–18°S). Retrieved tropospheric temperatures at 330 and 500 mbar do not show a clear variability during SEB fading and revival events.

* At the EZ, this study confirms the variability of the aerosol opacity observed during the EZ disturbances in Antuñano et al. (2018, 2020). However, unlike in previous studies, tropospheric temperatures at 500 mbar appear to increase by less than 1.5 K immediately prior to disturbances at 5 µm, although this is hard to confirm due to the lack of data during some of the EZ disturbances. Changes in aerosol opacity appear to lag 180 ± 60 days behind tropospheric temperature changes. Finally, the aerosol opacity at the EZ shows a secondary decrease halfway between disturbances, with a periodicity of 3.5–4 years. This unexpected secondary decrease does not follow the coloration events nor changes in the NEB and SEB.

* NEB-SEB anticorrelation: Antuñano et al. (2021) reported a continued anticorrelation in the variability of the 5-µm radiance at the NEB and SEB. In this study, we confirm that this long-term anticorrelation is also present higher up in the atmosphere, with maximum Pearson coefficients of -0.53 in the aerosol opacity between conjugate latitudes at 14° at 500 mbar, -0.52 in the tropospheric temperatures at 12° at 500 mbar and -0.6 in the upper-tropospheric temperatures at 14°. This long-term coupling between the NEB and SEB spans all the dates analyzed in this study (1983–2019) but, perplexingly, not all of the temperature/aerosol variations are directly related to the significant meteorological events (fades, revivals, expansions, etc.) characterized in visible light. Put another way, the deep-seated anticorrelated connection between the NEB and SEB may be a triggering mechanism for global upheavals, but they do not always lead to upheavals of the same magnitude.

* Stratosphere-troposphere coupling: Retrieved stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures reveal, for the first time, that JESO extends down to the 330-mbar pressure level. In particular, retrieved temperatures at 330 mbar are overall observed to be moderately anticorrelated to those at 10 mbar, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.47. The Pearson correlation analysis also returns a correlation maxima of 0.4 for a lag of 2.5 years between stratospheric and upper-tropospheric temperature maxima. This lag is half of the expected descending rate of ~13.6 km/year derived from Giles et al. (2020), which would indicate a lag between 10 and 330 mbar of ~5.25 years.

These long-term records of thermal variability help to place snapshots from visiting spacecraft (Galileo, Cassini, Juno, etc.) into a broader context, revealing the uniqueness of the jovian climate at a particular moment. Further ground-based spectroscopic data sets will allow us to better disentangle temperature, ammonia and aerosol changes. By extending this time series into the era of the James Webb Space Telescope and the forthcoming JUICE and Europa Clipper missions, new atmospheric discoveries in the 2020s and 2030s can be understood in terms of the meteorological variability observed since the 1980s.

Data Availability Statement

Retrieved temperature and aerosol opacity profiles discussed in this study, and smoothed radiance profiles used to compute (a) the smoothed zonal-mean brightness temperatures as a function of latitude and date, and (b) spectral image cubes to derive the vertical profiles of temperature and aerosols can be found in Antuñano (2023).

References

Adriani, A., Moriconi, M., Altieri, F., Sindoni, G., Ingersoll, A., Grassi, D., et al. (2018). Characterization of mesoscale waves in the Jupiter NEB by Jupiter InfraRed Auroral Mapper on board Juno. *The Astronomical Journal*, 156(5), 246. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/aae525

Antuñano, A. (2023). arrate01/repository-for-jupiters-multi-year-cycles-of-temperature-and- aerosol-variability: Jupiters temperature and aerosol variability (version v1) [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8395199

Antuñano, A., Cosentino, R. G., Fletcher, L. N., Simon, A. A., Greathouse, T. K., & Orton, G. S. (2021). Fluctuations in Jupiter's equatorial stratospheric oscillation. *Nature Astronomy*, 5(1), 71–77. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1165-5

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Melin, H., Milan, S., Rogers, J., et al. (2019). Jupiter's atmospheric variability from long-term ground-based observations at 5 µm. *The Astronomical Journal*, 158(3), 130. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ab2cd6

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Melin, H., Rogers, J. H., Harrington, J., et al. (2018). Infrared characterization of Jupiter's equatorial disturbance cycle. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 45(20), 10987–10995. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080382

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Toledo, D., Melin, H., Roman, M. T., et al. (2020). Characterizing temperature and aerosol variability during Jupiter's 2006–2007 equatorial zone disturbance. *Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets*, 125(10), e2020JE006413. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020je006413
Acknowledgments

AA, LNF, MTR and HM were supported by a European Research Council Consolidator Grant under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. Grant agreement number 723890, at the University of Leicester. This work made use of the ALICE high-performance computing facility at the University of Leicester. AA was also supported by Grant PID2019-109467GB-I00 funded by 1042 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/, by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT1742-22 and by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva-Incorporacion programme, Grant agreement number IJC2019-040328-I/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. PTD was supported by UK Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and by Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR). A portion of this work was performed by GSO, JAS and TWM at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA. GSO, LNF, JAS, TWM, and AA were Visiting Astronomers at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract 80HQTR19D0030 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This research is based, in part, on data collected at the Subaru Telescope, which is operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan; we are honored and grateful for the opportunity of observing the Universe from Maunakea, which has cultural, historical and natural significance in Hawaii. Some of data presented herein using the Subaru Telescope were obtained by way of an exchange program with the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation. The authors wish to recognize and acknowledge the very significant cultural role and reverence that the summit of Maunakea has always had within the indigenous Hawaiian community. We are most fortunate to have the opportunity to conduct observations from this mountain.

at 500 mbar accompanied by small decreases in the aerosol opacity, in agreement with Fletcher, Guerlet, et al. (2017). During SEB fading events, our retrievals show that, although the aerosol opacity seems to start increasing almost contemporaneously at all latitudes in the SEB, the most equatorward latitudes (8°–10°S) reach their maxima in aerosol opacity months before the poleward latitudes of the SEB (12°–18°S). Retrieved tropospheric temperatures at 330 and 500 mbar do not show a clear variability during SEB fading and revival events.

* At the EZ, this study confirms the variability of the aerosol opacity observed during the EZ disturbances in Antuñano et al. (2018, 2020). However, unlike in previous studies, tropospheric temperatures at 500 mbar appear to increase by less than 1.5 K immediately prior to disturbances at 5 µm, although this is hard to confirm due to the lack of data during some of the EZ disturbances. Changes in aerosol opacity appear to lag 180 ± 60 days behind tropospheric temperature changes. Finally, the aerosol opacity at the EZ shows a secondary decrease halfway between disturbances, with a periodicity of 3.5–4 years. This unexpected secondary decrease does not follow the coloration events nor changes in the NEB and SEB.

* NEB-SEB anticorrelation: Antuñano et al. (2021) reported a continued anticorrelation in the variability of the 5-µm radiance at the NEB and SEB. In this study, we confirm that this long-term anticorrelation is also present higher up in the atmosphere, with maximum Pearson coefficients of -0.53 in the aerosol opacity between conjugate latitudes at 14° at 500 mbar, -0.52 in the tropospheric temperatures at 12° at 500 mbar and -0.6 in the upper-tropospheric temperatures at 14°. This long-term coupling between the NEB and SEB spans all the dates analyzed in this study (1983–2019) but, perplexingly, not all of the temperature/aerosol variations are directly related to the significant meteorological events (fades, revivals, expansions, etc.) characterized in visible light. Put another way, the deep-seated anticorrelated connection between the NEB and SEB may be a triggering mechanism for global upheavals, but they do not always lead to upheavals of the same magnitude.

* Stratosphere-troposphere coupling: Retrieved stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures reveal, for the first time, that JESO extends down to the 330-mbar pressure level. In particular, retrieved temperatures at 330 mbar are overall observed to be moderately anticorrelated to those at 10 mbar, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.47. The Pearson correlation analysis also returns a correlation maxima of 0.4 for a lag of 2.5 years between stratospheric and upper-tropospheric temperature maxima. This lag is half of the expected descending rate of ~13.6 km/year derived from Giles et al. (2020), which would indicate a lag between 10 and 330 mbar of ~5.25 years.

These long-term records of thermal variability help to place snapshots from visiting spacecraft (Galileo, Cassini, Juno, etc.) into a broader context, revealing the uniqueness of the jovian climate at a particular moment. Further ground-based spectroscopic data sets will allow us to better disentangle temperature, ammonia and aerosol changes. By extending this time series into the era of the James Webb Space Telescope and the forthcoming JUICE and Europa Clipper missions, new atmospheric discoveries in the 2020s and 2030s can be understood in terms of the meteorological variability observed since the 1980s.

Data Availability Statement

Retrieved temperature and aerosol opacity profiles discussed in this study, and smoothed radiance profiles used to compute (a) the smoothed zonal-mean brightness temperatures as a function of latitude and date, and (b) spectral image cubes to derive the vertical profiles of temperature and aerosols can be found in Antuñano (2023).

References

Adriani, A., Moriconi, M., Altieri, F., Sindoni, G., Ingersoll, A., Grassi, D., et al. (2018). Characterization of mesoscale waves in the Jupiter NEB by Jupiter InfraRed Auroral Mapper on board Juno. *The Astronomical Journal*, 156(5), 246. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/aae525

Antuñano, A. (2023). arrate01/repository-for-jupiters-multi-year-cycles-of-temperature-and- aerosol-variability: Jupiters temperature and aerosol variability (version v1) [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8395199

Antuñano, A., Cosentino, R. G., Fletcher, L. N., Simon, A. A., Greathouse, T. K., & Orton, G. S. (2021). Fluctuations in Jupiter's equatorial stratospheric oscillation. *Nature Astronomy*, 5(1), 71–77. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1165-5

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Melin, H., Milan, S., Rogers, J., et al. (2019). Jupiter's atmospheric variability from long-term ground-based observations at 5 µm. *The Astronomical Journal*, 158(3), 130. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ab2cd6

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Melin, H., Rogers, J. H., Harrington, J., et al. (2018). Infrared characterization of Jupiter's equatorial disturbance cycle. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 45(20), 10987–10995. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080382

Antuñano, A., Fletcher, L. N., Orton, G. S., Toledo, D., Melin, H., Roman, M. T., et al. (2020). Characterizing temperature and aerosol variability during Jupiter's 2006–2007 equatorial zone disturbance. *Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets*, 125(10), e2020JE006413. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020je006413
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