# Digital twin: buzzword or new paradigm for linking geoscience and political decision-makers involved in environmental land management?

Michaël Chelle

► To cite this version:

Michaël Chelle. Digital twin: buzzword or new paradigm for linking geoscience and political decision-makers involved in environmental land management?. Workshop "Digital twins: from creation to communication", Le studium, Dec 2024, Orléans, France. hal-04831536

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Submitted on 11 Dec 2024

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# Digital twin buzzword or new paradigm for linking geoscience and political decision-makers involved in environmental land management?

Michaël Chelle

BRGM

Workshop

« Digital twins: from creation to Communication »

Orléans, 11 december 2024

Think
to
colorblind
people!
# Digital twin: A fuzzy concept

*From an industrial concept* (Grieves & Vickers, 2002) ... to broader issues e.g. environnement

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(Korenhof et al., 2021, Fig. 1)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-021-00484-1

## A definition (from the European Destination Earth initiative)

Digital twins are mirrors of reality, simulators that reproduce reality constrained by real-time data.

They have been used in industrial processes to improve overall production efficiency.

They are now used in many other sectors (energy, transport, health, smart cities, climate change, agriculture, etc.).

## Why A definition, and not THE definition?

* Extensive literature reviews by various researchers have shown that, so far, there is **no uniform definition** of what a "Digital Twin" is!» (Korenhof et al., 2021, p. 1753)

* «Digital twins as a technology are in their infancy. Many challenges: lack of consensus on its definition and value, lack of standards and regulations, lack of competent engineers and technicians, and lack of supporting software» (Singh et al., 2021, p. 15)

* and even a subject of study for philosophers...

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-021-00484-1

Philosophy & Technology (2021) 34:1751–1773
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-021-00484-1

## RESEARCH ARTICLE

### Steering Representations—Towards a Critical Understanding of Digital Twins
# What is the distinction between a “traditional” model and digital twin?

## RESEARCH ARTICLE

## Open Access

### How to tell the difference between a model and a digital twin

Louise Wright and Stuart Davidson, 2020

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40323-020-00147-4

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-> Not so obvious

-> **DT-washing** / funding & publishing

-> it generates confusions, disinterest, etc

* Simulator = no input (~real-time) data flow and no feedback (**digital model**)

* Simulator with data assimilation, but with no/low feedback (**digital shadow**)

* Programmable logic controller (PLC): *very simplified model ≠ digital twin*

From
Kritzinger et al.
20181

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A **digital twin** also differs from a “traditional” model, by a **change of scale** (complexity) requiring a technological leap for the **purposes of concrete actions on the real system**
**Digital twin** and even a subject of controversy!

# Buzzword vs promising future

Campos-Ferreira et al. (2019) [47] see the Digital Twin hype development at its peak of inflated expectations in mid-2019, with a trough of disillusionment and slope of enlightenment following and reaching the plateau of productivity sometime between 2024 and 2029 (see Figure 2).

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 2.** Gartner Hype Cycle and the Digital Twin concept, based on Campos-Ferreira et al. (2019) [47]</figcaption></figure>

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Christian Rehtanz®, Ulf Häger®, and Chen-Ching Liu®

IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, Jan.-Feb. 2024

**digital twin**
from buzzword to solutions

Data and models must be kept consistent, and this is where digital twins come into play by providing consistent data and models for different processes.

## Editorial

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-024-00617-4

### The increasing potential and challenges of digital twins

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Check for updates

This issue of *Nature Computational Science* includes a Focus that highlights recent advancements, challenges, and opportunities in the development and use of digital twins across different domains.

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# What is an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT)

## ESDT Three Components

ESTO
Earth Science Technology Office

AIST

Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDTs) are an emerging capability for understanding, forecasting, and conjecturing the complex interconnections among Earth systems, including anthropomorphic forcings and impacts to humanity.

=> What Now? What Next? What If?

An ESDT includes:

- Continuous observations of interacting Earth systems and human systems

- From many disparate sources

- Driving inter-connected models

- At many physical and temporal scales

- With fast, powerful and integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities

- Using Machine Learning, causality and uncertainty quantification

- Running at scale in order to improve our science understanding of those systems, their interactions and their applications

## How?

Integration of digital technologies

### What for?

Purposes

**What now?**

**Digital Replica**...

An integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems.

**What next?**

**Forecasting**...

An integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state.

**What if?**

**Impact Assessment**...

An integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios.

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Which digital methodologies to integrate to build a DT?

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(From, NASA ESDT, 2022)
## Now let's go underground!

Digital twin* (Title)

Web of Science Core Collection 9,003

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Clarivate™

Web of Science

In geoscience, more recent appearance in the literature but in various fields

Why ?

### Digital twin* (Title) and Geosciences, Multidisciplinary (Web of Science Categories)

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# How far can we go ?

* Is it possible to have a digital twin of the subsurface

* Depends what do you mean by digital twin (level of interaction and feedback)

* No from the chemical example, subsurface is too uncertain

* Yes from a (support to) decision-making point of view

* It boils down to

* Data Quality and **reducing uncertainty** in data acquisition, processing, interpretation, modelling and integration.

* Being more selective/filtering on data

* Better to integrate a “for sure” data than everything

* Interdisciplinary integration problem (rocks/fluids physics, geophysics, geology, reservoir engineering, geochemistry, computational science)

* Regulatory and legal requirements might slow down the process (data ownership, IP, licensing, etc..)
# Digital twin for subsurface...

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# Digital twin for subsurface : challenges

## Producing "faithful" digital twins dedicated to subsurface uses

* **Improve data collection**, i.e. strengthen our capacity to monitor the subsurface and produce usable data through interoperability standards and FAIR principles

* **Optimize simulators**, i.e. design models that are both fast and scientifically valid, capable of predicting phenomena accurately

* **Reduce uncertainties**, in order to have useful decision-making aids and make it possible to manage industrial processes autonomously

* **Simplify the creation of digital twins**, i.e. offer **ergonomic** environments, with generic components, **semantic** dimension, to reduce costs and development times, and thus move from artisanal production to more **industrialized production**

* **Create digital twin federations**, i.e. connect multiple digital twins to solve complex problems on a larger scale, such as energy management at the scale of a city or a country that can combine, for example, biomass, wind, solar and geothermal energy.
# Digital twin for subsurface : issues

Science-based tools for management and decision-making concerning many subsurface uses

## Autonomous control

* It corresponds to **industrial activities** related to the subsurface (geothermal energy, waste storage, mining), for which the digital twin will be able to **directly influence** the real object via a feedback loop.

* For example, in geothermal energy, it could adjust a valve to optimize water flows

## Resources management

* It concerns uses where the digital twin only provides **recommendations** for underground resources management

* Let's take an aquifer suffering from a recharge deficit: the digital twin could advise actions such as de-waterproofing the soil in certain areas to improve the recharge of the aquifer.

## A new paradigm making geoscientific expertise more accessible for the support of public policies

Digital twins will contribute to a better **management of territories**, in terms of the role of the subsoil

* as a mechanical support for above-ground constructions and the associated risks (e.g., ground movements, earthquakes, shrinkage and swelling of clays), or

* as an "actor" in processes affecting different resources of a territory, e.g. water or energy (e.g. Suvorova, 2022)

"Towards Digital Twins for the Development of Territories," Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organization, in: Vikas Kumar & Jiewu Leng & Victoria Akberdina & Evgeny Kuzmin (ed.), Digital Transformation in Industry, pages 121-131, Springer.
A two-image conclusion...

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Thanks for your attention

m.chelle@brgm.fr