# Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy

Jean-Baptiste Bernard, Guillaume Cléaud

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Jean-Baptiste Bernard, Guillaume Cléaud. Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy. 2013. hal-05462730

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Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2013 / 09

Oil price: the nature of the shocks
and the impact on the French economy

Jean-Baptiste BERNARD et Guillaume CLÉAUD

Document de travail
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

Série des documents de travail
de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2013 / 9

Oil price: the nature of the shocks
and the impact on the French economy

Jean-Baptiste BERNARD* et Guillaume CLÉAUD*

17 SEPTEMBRE 2013

Nous adressons nos remerciements à Eric Dubois, Corinne Prost, Pierre-Alain Pionnier et Julien Chevallier pour leurs suggestions, leurs commentaires précieux et leurs relectures attentives. Nous remercions également Pierre Cahuc et tous les participants des séminaires INSEE-DEE et CREST-LMA pour leurs commentaires. Ce document a par ailleurs bénéficié des simulations réalisées par Matthieu Lequien sur le modèle NIGEM et nous l'en remercions.

<footnote>* Au moment de la rédaction de l'étude : Département des Études Économiques - Division « Études Macroéconomiques »
Timbre G220 - 15, bd Gabriel Péri - BP 100 - 92244 MALAKOFF CEDEX
et CREST-LMA -15, bd Gabriel Péri - 92245 MALAKOFF CEDEX</footnote>
# Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy

## Abstract

Since the late 70s and the first two oil shocks, many economic studies have explored the link between changes in oil prices and global economic growth. However, the causes of the variations in oil price have changed over this period. Thus the impact of these shocks on the economy may also differ. Developing a structural VAR model and the bootstrap-after-bootstrap methodology, this paper offers to identify three types of exogenous shocks to explain the dynamic of the real price of oil. This study then analyzes the impact on the French economy of these three shocks by identifying the channels through which these effects transit with a VARX model integrating data on exports and interest rates.

We find that the effects of an increase in the real price of oil, and the channels through which it affects the French economy, greatly differ depending on the nature of the shocks. The 80s were mostly dominated by oil supply shocks. Restricting oil production results in a significant decrease in the French Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The shock of the late 2000s can be explained by the development of global activity and the high demand for oil in emerging economies. A positive global activity shock causes a significant increase in French GDP, while the general price level is not impacted by the increase in oil prices.

**Keywords :** real price of oil, SVAR, historical decomposition, bootstrap-after-bootstrap, transmission channels

# Prix du pétrole : la nature des chocs et leur impact sur l'économie française

## Résumé

Depuis la fin des années 70 et les deux premiers chocs pétroliers, de nombreuses études économiques ont exploré le lien entre les variations du prix du pétrole et la croissance économique mondiale. Cependant, les causes des variations du prix du pétrole ont évolué sur cette période. Ainsi les conséquences de ces chocs sur l'économie doivent également différer. En modélisant la dynamique du prix du pétrole à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel utilisant la méthode du bootstrap-after-bootstrap, ce document de travail propose d'isoler trois types de chocs exogènes affectant les équilibres du marché pétrolier. Cette étude propose d'analyser ensuite l'impact sur l'économie française de ces trois chocs en identifiant les canaux par lesquels ces effets transitent à l'aide d'un modèle de type VARX intégrant des données sur les exportations et le taux d'intérêt.

Nous constatons que les effets d'une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole, et les canaux par lesquels ils affectent l'économie française, varient considérablement en fonction de la nature du choc. Par exemple, les années 80 ont été dominées majoritairement par des chocs d'offre de pétrole. La restriction de la production de pétrole a pour conséquence une baisse significative du Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) français. Par ailleurs, le choc de la fin des années 2000 s'explique plutôt par le développement de l'activité mondiale et la forte demande de pétrole des économies émergentes. Suite à un choc positif d'activité mondiale, le PIB français augmente significativement, le niveau général des prix étant cependant peu affecté par la hausse du prix du pétrole.

**Mots-clés :** prix réel du pétrole, modèle VAR structurel, décomposition historique, bootstrap-after-bootstrap, canaux de transmission

**Classification JEL :** E32, Q41, Q43
# 1 Introduction

The sharp increase in the real price of oil in the late 2000s and the following crisis have sparked off a renewal of interest for the empirical link between oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic performances. A large body of studies has attempted to clarify this economic link and provide theoretical analyses on the role played by the real price of oil in macroeconomic performances. The first issue on this topic occurred in the late 1970s and were justified by the specific economic situation of this period: the 1970s were characterized by a period of growing dependence on imported oil, exceptional disruptions in the global oil market due to geopolitical factors and relatively low overall global macroeconomic performances. During this period, the real price of energy had risen threefold and the annual world GDP growth declined.

Since the first oil price shock, there is a common belief about the role of the exogenous political events in the Middle East causing recessions in industrialized economies through the rise and instability of the real price of oil. Hamilton (2011) surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1: Real Price of Oil: composite Brent, in 2010 $</figcaption></figure>
Figure (1) shows the real price of oil used throughout this paper. This composite price is constructed as a weighted geometric average of the nominal price of oil in four major currencies<fnref n="1" /> deflated by the corresponding Consumer Price Index.

The periods of high oil price variations presented in figure (1) can be linked to some of the major economic events. Thus oil price fluctuations seem to have a strong impact on the global economy. The seminal paper on the link between Oil and the Macroeconomy is undoubtedly Hamilton (1983). This paper finds a statistically significant correlation between the price of crude petroleum and the real output in the United States over the period 1948-1973. Barsky and Kilian (2004) cast doubt however on the real nature of the links between the real price of oil and the global economy. They show that the effects of oil price shocks have differed a lot depending on the economic context. They also question the robustness of the regressions used by Hamilton, in that the real price of oil is an endogenous variable which reacts to the current state of the global economy.

While past oil price shocks seemed generally characterized by massive shortfalls in crude oil production, the recent increase in crude oil prices which began in 2005 seems to be driven by the demand side, mainly due to the emergence of new economies. The structural VAR (SVAR) methodology developed in this paper provides answers to these issues. If the nature of the shocks is different, the effects of these shocks on the economy may also differ. Thus, the aim of this paper is to disentangle the effects on the economy of different shocks affecting the real price of oil, depending on their nature.

Kilian (2009) addresses the issue of the endogeneity of the real price of oil by disentangling the nature of the exogenous shocks affecting the real price of oil through a SVAR decomposition. Three exogenous shocks are identified: an oil supply shock, a global activity shock, and an oil-specific demand shock. The oil price decomposition presented in this paper is largely inspired by Kilian's work. However, we put forth another index of global activity based on the global industrial production index instead of Kilian's one constructed from freight rates data. We also addressed the issue of the dependence of the exchange rate and the decline in oil intensity using a specific price index. Furthermore, following Kilian (1998) we develop a bootstrap-after-bootstrap methodology to correct from the bias created by the chosen specification.

<footnote n="1">¹U.S. Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen and Pound Sterling. The moving weights of each currency is defined as the total oil consumption of the corresponding economic area.</footnote>
We then analyze the effects of these shocks on the French economy, depending on their nature. Moreover, it is also important to go one step further and to identify the different channels of transmission of these exogenous shocks. As discussed in Barlet and Crusson (2007), four effects are generally considered in the literature. First, the real price of oil can affect the French economy through an increase in the cost of inputs, leading to a slowdown in production and productivity. Second, an increase in the real price of oil causes higher inflation, possibly followed by second-round effects related to the adjustment of wages. Third, the uncertain economic environment linked to oil price volatility leads to a decrease in the consumption of durable goods and in investment. Finally, the rise in oil prices generates an important wealth transfer between oil importing and oil exporting countries.

These commonly accepted impacts of an oil price increase on the macroeconomy can be separated into direct and indirect effects. The direct effects correspond to the impact of the oil price increase on the French output which do not transit through links with economic partners. The indirect effects take into account the broader context of the global economy and especially the impact of the oil price increase on the other countries. The aim of this paper is to increase the knowledge on these indirect effects.
## 2 Identifying the nature of the shocks: a SVAR approach

The model we consider is a monthly SVAR with 3 variables and $p$ lags. This model can be written as:

$$ 
\begin{aligned}
Y_t &= \mu + Y_{t-1}A_1 + \dots + Y_{t-p}A_p + \eta_t R \\
&= [1 \quad Y_{t-1} \quad \dots \quad Y_{t-p}] A + \eta_t R \\
&= Z_t A + \eta_t R
\end{aligned}
$$

where $\eta_t \sim N(0, I_3)$ are independent structural innovations and the $(3p+1) \times 3$ matrix $A$ contains coefficients of constants and lags.

The three endogenous variables in the SVAR are global oil production, a global industrial production index and the index of oil price, ordered in this way. Global oil production is narrowly defined as world crude oil production provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration Monthly Energy Review, expressed in log-level. The construction of the industrial production index is presented in appendix A. It is also expressed in log-level. The index of oil price is the composite Brent displayed above, in level, multiplied by the global oil intensity so as to take into account the underlying decrease in oil dependence observed in most economies. The sample period is 1975m1-2012m12 and the number of lags $p$ is set to 24, as in Kilian (2009). The number of lags is thus sufficiently large to warrant the asymptotic convergence of the SVAR parameters, whatever the order of integration of the three initial time series.

The impact of the exchange rate on the real price of oil is not straightforward. Since the price of oil is generally denominated in U.S. dollars, exchange rates should play a role in the demand for oil in economic areas using other currencies. On the other hand, the different reactions of central banks to changes in the nominal price of oil have an impact on the exchange rate. These intricate links between the nominal price of oil and exchange rates forbid a direct inclusion of exchange rates in the endogenous variables of the SVAR. We thus build a composite Brent price aggregating real price indices denominated in the four principal currencies weighted by their oil consumption. The corresponding economic areas are the United States, the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom.

Furthermore, global oil intensity has followed a decreasing trend for 30 years. Both advanced countries and emerging economies are now able to produce a unit of GDP with a smaller quantity of crude oil. Reducing oil intensity in advanced economies resulted
from an attempt to lessen oil dependence, especially after the two oil price shocks. In the 80s, oil intensity decreased by 3.5% a year in advanced economies. Since the 90s, oil intensity decreased by 2% every year in advanced economies and by 3% in emerging economies. Nowadays, oil intensity in emerging economies is almost similar to the oil intensity in advanced economies. In order to take into account this paradigm shift in the oil consumption, we constructed the series of global oil intensity as the ratio of the global oil consumption and the global industrial production index. This global oil intensity index is then filtered, using a one-sided HP-filter, so as to address endogeneity issues linked to the short term response of global oil intensity to oil price fluctuations. We then multiplied this filtered global oil intensity with the composite price of oil described above. Figure (2) displays the resulting real price of oil index. Finally, we rescale our composite price index so that its mean over 2010 is equal to the mean of the Brent price (in nominal dollars) over the same year.

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2: Real Price of Oil Index (multiplied by global oil intensity), in 2010 $</figcaption></figure>

Finally, the upper triangular R matrix implements the Cholesky identification scheme of the three structural shocks: the oil supply shock, the global activity shock, and the oil-specific demand shock. We assume, as in Kilian (2009), that the global oil production cannot react within the same month to unexpected changes in oil demand, either
driven by the global activity shock or by the oil-specific demand shock. The short-run
supply curve of oil is thus vertical in the model. This assumption could be motivated
by the presence of high adjustment costs in the oil production process, or incomplete
information about the current state of the oil market. Furthermore, we also assume that
oil-specific demand shocks have no instantaneous impact on global industrial production.
Hence, increases in the real price of oil driven by the oil-specific demand shock will only
affect economic activity with a delay of at least a month in the model. These restrictions
only seem plausible at a monthly frequency. At last, we impose three additional sign
constraints: the three structural shocks must have a positive initial impact on the real
price of oil. Hence, the oil supply shock is a negative oil supply shock, while the demand
shocks are positive demand shocks.

This identification strategy allows us to determine the three structural shocks: oil
supply shocks, global activity shock and oil-specific demand shock. The interpretation of
the third structural shock, the oil-specific demand shock is somewhat less straightforward
than the two first shocks. This shock captures all variations in the real price of oil
that cannot be explained by the standard effects of past and present values of global
oil production and global industrial production. Hence, the oil-specific demand shock
contains, among other sources of oil demand not captured by our activity index, all
shocks related to precautionary demand linked to shifts in market anticipations about
the future path of the real price of oil. Hence, we ought to remain cautious on the
interpretation of the third structural shock.

## 2.1 Impulse Response Functions

The SVAR is estimated in levels rather than in first differences. Sims et al. (1990)
show that the OLS estimator is consistent whether or not the SVAR contains integrated
components, as long as the innovations in the SVAR have enough moments and a zero
mean, conditional on past values on $Y_t$. The estimators of coefficients have a joint non-
degenerate asymptotic normal distribution if the model can be rewritten so that these
original coefficients correspond in the transformed model to coefficients on mean zero
stationary canonical regressors.

However, the estimators of these coefficients are affected by finite sample bias. Kilian
(1998) shows that in small sample, bias-corrected bootstrap tend to be more accurate
than delta methods intervals, standard bootstrap intervals, and Monte Carlo integration
intervals. In the following, we always adopt his bootstrap-after-bootstrap methodology
for the computation of Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and of the corresponding con-
fidence intervals.
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3: Impulse Response Functions of Oil Production, Global Activity and Oil Price to One-Standard-Deviation Structural Shocks. Point Estimates (red), Median and 95% Confidence Intervals (black) using Kilian's (1998) bootstrap-after-bootstrap</figcaption></figure>

Figure (3) shows the responses of global oil production, global industrial production and the real price of oil to one-standard-deviation structural innovations.

Following an unexpected negative oil supply shock, oil production decreases by 1.3% and tends to return slowly back to its initial level afterwards. This pattern is consistent with the view that oil production disruptions in one region will tend to trigger oil supply increases elsewhere. Global industrial production decreases significantly a month after the negative oil supply shock, while the real price of oil increases only marginally during the first year after the shock and decreases afterwards, this decrease being marginally significant. Hence, oil production disruptions have almost no impact on the real price of oil. This result could ensue from the fact that these shocks might have been anticipated by oil markets, so that the real price of oil already contains a premium before the structural shock happens. This premium would then appear through the third structural shock in our structural decomposition.

The effect of an unanticipated positive global activity shock on global activity is very
persistent and highly significant. Global industrial production increases by 0.5% on im-
pact, the effect peaks at 1.0% after 8 months and remains above 0.5% thereafter. The
real price of oil responds positively to this positive global activity shock, confirming its
dependence to business conditions and justifying the structural decomposition. The real
price of oil peaks at 1.9 $ above its initial level after 6 months and remains statistically
significant 7 months after the shock. Responding to the increased demand for oil and to
higher prices, the oil supply increases up to 0.4% and remains significantly positive 16
months after the shock.

Finally, unanticipated positive oil-specific demand shocks have an immediate large
and persistent positive effect on the real price of oil. Following a one-standard-deviation
shock, the real price of oil increases by 4.4 $ on impact, and up to 5.5 $ after a month.
The real price of oil stabilizes around 2 $ above its initial level after a year and a half.
Oil production increases significantly after an oil-specific demand shock, and the impact
peaks at 0.2% after 3 months. Global activity increases slightly during the first 6 months
after the oil-specific demand shock. This result might stem from an important fraction of
oil-specific demand shocks being driven by (correct) anticipations of future global indus-
trial activity increases in the oil market. As a matter of fact, the conditional correlation
between commodity futures returns and U.S. stock index returns is positive and signif-
icant, as shown by Silvennoinen and Thorp (2010) for instance, which could suggest a
positive link between news about the future state of the economy and current oil prices.

## 2.2 Historical decomposition of the real price of oil

The model also allows us to derive a historical decomposition of the real price of oil.
However, the cumulative contribution of each structural shock involves the long-term
effects of the historical shocks. These long-term effects rely on the estimated impulse re-
sponse functions at long horizons, which are inconsistent in unrestricted VARs estimated
on short samples with very persistent variables, as shown in Phillips (1998). Moreover,
Kilian and Chang (2000) show that confidence bands may have poor coverage properties
in small samples in the presence of very persistent variables, even if standard methods of
inference are justified asymptotically.

In order to overcome this inconsistency, we apply an HP-filter to the real price of oil and
to its historical decomposition. This linear filter cuts out the low-frequency movements
of the impulse response functions at long horizons, while preserving the summability of
the high-frequency contributions of the structural shocks. Results are shown in Figure (4).
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4: Historical Decomposition of the Real Price of Oil (HP-filtered)</figcaption></figure>
The main driver of the HP-filtered real price of oil is the oil-specific demand shock. It is responsible for most of the short-term volatility. This fact is consistent with the view that precautionary demand shocks may reflect rapid shifts in the market's assessment of the future path for the price of oil. In particular, the second oil price shock in late 1978 and early 1979, during the Iranian revolution, appears to be driven almost exclusively by the third structural shock. As a matter of fact, the real price of oil rises from a trough of 42.7 $ in October 1978 to a first peak of 105.7 $ in June 1979, while global oil production declines by only 4.6% between November 1978 and January 1979, and exceeds its historical peak in July 1979 already. On the contrary, the Iran-Iraq war, starting in September 1980, leads to a 16.2% decline in global oil production between August 1980 and February 1983. According to our historical decomposition, this sharp decline in global oil production contributed positively to the high level of the real price of oil observed during this period.

The 1980s oil glut corresponds to a serious surplus of crude oil caused by falling demand following the two oil price shocks. By the end of 1985, global oil production has almost completely recovered from its drop in 1981-1982. Saudi Arabia abandons efforts to restrict its crude oil production. The real price of oil falls from a peak at 67.2 $ in November 1985 to a trough at 20.2 $ in July 1986. The contribution of the oil supply shock become negative in 1985 and remain firmly negative until 1989. Global activity shocks also contribute negatively to the real price of oil, starting in August 1986 until the end of 1987, though to a lesser extent. But even for this episode, the main driver of the severe decline in the real price of oil remains the oil-specific demand shock.

In 1990, Kuwait's invasion by Iraqi troops that begins the 2nd of August is followed by a rapid surge in the real price of oil, from 28.9 $ in July 1990 to 54.7 $ in October 1990. By February 1991, the real price of oil is back down to 29.2 $. In our historical decomposition, this rapid increase is almost completely explained by the oil-specific demand shock, the positive contribution of the oil supply shock being quite negligible.

Finally, from the beginning of 2006 until September 2008, the global activity shock has contributed largely to the high level of the real price of oil of this period. The rapid economic transformation of new emerging countries during the last decade led to a sharp increase in oil demand, resulting in a strong and persistent rise in the real price of oil, overtaking the historical summits reached in the 1980s in real terms. Unlike many other historical oil price shocks, there was no dramatic geopolitical event associated with this. Though the peak at 128.4 $ in June 2008 seems largely explained by oil-specific demand
shocks, the subsequent sharp fall in the real price of oil, reaching a trough at 41.3 $ in December 2008, is almost entirely due to the negative global activity shocks following the Great Recession.

Hence, the evidence in Figure (4) confirms that not all price shocks are alike. If the contributions of the oil supply shock have played some role during the Iran-Iraq war, it seems as though the global activity shocks play a more crucial role in explaining the recent variations in the real price of oil, starting in 2006.

## 2.3 Sensitivity Analysis

The assumptions underlying the identification scheme of the three structural shocks heavily rely on delay restrictions that are plausible only at monthly frequency. Measuring the current state of the global demand for commodities at a monthly frequency is a challenge. Technological changes over time may affect the link between rising global industrial production and the global demand for commodities. In his structural decomposition applied to the United States, Kilian (2009) constructs an index of single-voyage freight rates, based on various bulk dry cargoes consisting of grain, oilseeds, coal, iron ore, fertilizer, and scrap metal, collected by *Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd*. Figure (5) shows the HP-filtered global industrial production index and the HP-filtered Kilian's index.

The two series depict a very similar picture of the global business cycles, and the associated global demand for commodities. The world economic activity seems to be the most important determinant of the global demand for transport services. Hence Kilian's index appears as a good measure of the component of global economic activity that drives global demand for industrial commodities. However, the real price of oil remains an important component of freight rates, since the provision of shipping services uses bunker fuel oil as an input. Thus, Kilian's restriction that innovations to the shipping rates do not respond to changes in the price of crude oil within the same month might not hold. Furthermore, Kilian's index does not take into account a situation in which a country is self-sufficient in commodities and thus does not use shipping for the development of its economic activity.

Results from the SVAR using Kilian's index are nonetheless very similar to our estimates using the global industrial production index. The responses of global oil production and of the real price of oil to the three structural shocks are essentially identical in the two cases.
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5: Comparison of the global industrial production index with Kilian's index</figcaption></figure>

## 3 The effect of the structural shocks on French GDP: an ARX approach

Following Kilian (2009), this section offers a first simple model to study the impact of the structural shocks derived above on the French Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since French GDP is only available at quarterly frequency, we have to compute quarterly series for the three structural shocks identified previously. It was not possible to keep the identifying assumptions of the monthly SVAR model to construct an analogous structural VAR model on data aggregated at quarterly frequency. Therefore, we consider the monthly series of the three structural shocks and take the sum of the shocks in three consecutive months.

We define $\zeta_t$ a $1 \times 3$ vector constructed as the sum of the monthly structural innovations for each quarter:

$$ \zeta_t = \sum_{i=1}^{3} \eta_{t,i} $$

where $\eta_{t,i}$ refers to the vector of the three residual shocks in the i-th month of the t-th quarter of the sample. These quarterly series of structural shocks hold the same char-
acteristics than the previous series constructed with the monthly SVAR: when summing the monthly series, we are sure to construct a white noise. Hence $\zeta_t \sim N(0, 3I_3)$.

We then estimate the following quarterly ARX:

$$ 
\begin{aligned}
Y_t &= \mu + Y_{t-1}B_1 + \dots + Y_{t-q}B_q + \zeta_t B_{q+1} + \dots + \zeta_{t-q}B_{2q+1} + \varepsilon_t \\
&= [1 \quad Y_{t-1} \quad \dots \quad Y_{t-q} \quad \zeta_t \quad \dots \quad \zeta_{t-q}] B + \varepsilon_t \\
&= Z_t B + \varepsilon_t
\end{aligned}
$$

where $\varepsilon_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2)$ are reduced form shocks and the $(4q+4) \times 1$ matrix $B$ contains coefficients of constant, lags of French GDP and present and past values of the exogenous variables. The endogenous variable $Y_t$ is the quarterly French GDP, expressed in log-level. The three structural shocks $\zeta_t$ are exogenous in this ARX modelization. As French GDP only represents a small fraction of the global economy, it can be considered that internal developments in France, captured by the reduced form shocks $\varepsilon_t$ have no effects on the real price of oil or on global activity.

We prefer to regress French GDP on the three structural shocks simultaneously while Kilian regresses on the three structural shocks separately. Our methodology leads me- chanically to smaller confidence intervals. Since these shocks are orthogonal, there is no problem to regress on all three of them together. We consider this model over the period 1978Q1-2012Q4 and the number of lags $q$ is set to 12, as in Kilian (2009).

## 3.1 Impulse Response Functions

The effects of the three structural shocks on French GDP are computed using the bootstrap- after-bootstrap methodology. It is important to note, however, that the confidence inter- vals computed here do not account for the uncertainty of the estimation of the monthly SVAR. Results in Figure (6) illustrate how different the response of French GDP is, de- pending on the nature of the shocks. An unanticipated oil supply disruption significantly lowers French GDP, although the effects are quite delayed. Following a one-standard- deviation negative oil supply shock, French GDP decreases by 0.6% after four years and continues to fall afterwards.

In contrast, an unanticipated shock on global activity raises French GDP. French GDP increases by 0.5% after one year, and then falls back somewhat but remains significant until two years after the shock. Thus, it seems as though the direct positive effects of a global activity shock on French GDP outweigh the indirect negative effects from the 2.7
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 6: Impulse Response Functions of French GDP to One-Standard-Deviation Structural Shocks. Point Estimates (red), Median and 95% Confidence Intervals (black) using Kilian's (1998) bootstrap-after-bootstrap</figcaption></figure>

$ increase in the real price of oil. Finally, the oil-specific demand shock has a negative effect on French GDP. A one-standard-deviation shock leads to an increase of 10.1 $ in the real price of oil. Two years after the shock, French GDP is 0.6% below the level that would prevail in the absence of the shock.

## 3.2 Historical contributions of the structural shocks to French GDP

The ARX model also allows us to derive the historical contributions of the three structural shocks to French GDP. Once again, in order to overcome the inconsistency of the estimated impulse response functions at long horizons, we apply an HP-filter to both the historical contributions of the three structural shocks and to French GDP. The filtered French GDP thus corresponds to the difference between the actual value of French GDP and its long term trend. Results are shown in Figure (7). It is important to note that the contributions of the three structural shocks do not sum up to the values of the filtered series for French GDP, since French GDP is also explained by internal factors captured by the reduced-form shock $ε_t$. However, in some historical episodes, an important fraction of the business cycle fluctuations in French GDP is explained by the effects of the three global shocks identified previously.
We observe a gradual change in the importance of the contributions of the three struc-
tural shocks to French GDP. Oil-specific demand shocks played an important role after
the second oil price shock. From 1983 to 1987, following the Iran-Iraq war, oil supply
shocks became the main driver in explaining the negative output gap prevailing at that
time. Since then, the influence of those two shocks on French GDP somewhat faded, and
global activity shocks have been the dominant factor to French business cycle fluctuations
for the last 20 years. In particular, during the 2007-2011 period, French GDP is almost
completely explained by the contributions of the global activity shocks.
<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>Figure 7: Historical Contributions of the structural shocks to French GDP (HP-filtered)</figcaption></figure>
# 4 The effect of the structural shocks on the French economy: a VARX approach

We now study the channels through which these three identified structural shocks affect the French economy. We choose to highlight the direct effects on the French economy by including the French Consumer Price Index (CPI) as an endogenous variable. We also include a French short term interest rate to take into account the monetary policy reaction. The indirect effects, transiting through the effects of the shocks on the rest of the world, are modelized thanks to French exports. All in all, we estimate the following quarterly VARX:

$$ 
\begin{aligned}
Y_t &= \mu + Y_{t-1}C_1 + \dots + Y_{t-r}C_r + \zeta_t C_{r+1} + \dots + \zeta_{t-r}C_{2r+1} + \varepsilon_t \\
&= [1 \quad Y_{t-1} \quad \dots \quad Y_{t-r} \quad \zeta_t \quad \dots \quad \zeta_{t-r}] C + \varepsilon_t \\
&= Z_t C + \varepsilon_t
\end{aligned}
$$

where $\varepsilon_t \sim N(0, \Sigma)$ are reduced form shocks and the $(7r + 4) \times 4$ matrix $C$ contains coefficients of constants, lags of the endogenous variables and present and past values of the exogenous variables. The four endogenous variables $Y_t$ of the VARX are French GDP, French Exports, French CPI, and the three-month Euribor interest rate. All variables are expressed in log-levels. The three exogenous variables $\zeta_t$ are the three structural shocks. The sample period is 1978Q1-2012Q4 and the number of lags $r$ is set to 12, as in the ARX approach.

## 4.1 Impulse Response Functions

The effects of the three structural shocks on the four endogenous variables are shown in Figure (8). Again, the bootstrap-after-bootstrap confidence intervals do not account for the uncertainty of the estimation of the monthly SVAR. Results illustrate the different channels through which the three structural shocks affect the French economy.

Following a negative oil supply shock, French GDP decreases by 0.4% after three years. The effects of the oil supply shock on French GDP transit almost exclusively through the direct effects on French CPI and interest rates. The CPI increases significantly by up to 0.5% after two years. Responding to the higher inflation induced by the first and second round effects of the oil supply shock, short term interest rates increase by 36 basis points after one year and remain significantly positive until two years after the shock. On the contrary, French Exports increase by up to 0.9% after a year and a half and become insignificant afterwards. This result could stem from increased demand
<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Figure 8: Impulse Response Functions of French GDP, Exports, CPI and Interest Rates to One-Standard-Deviation Structural Shocks. Point Estimates (red), Median and 95% Confidence Intervals (black) using Kilian's (1998) bootstrap-after-bootstrap</figcaption></figure>

from oil exporting countries. All in all, the effects of a negative oil supply shock on the French economy transit through the direct effects of the shock on headline inflation and monetary policy.

On the other hand, a positive global activity shock causes a statistically significant increase of French GDP, reaching a peak at 0.2% after three quarters, driven by the increase of 0.8% of French Exports. The responses of French CPI and interest rates are insignificant. In the short run, the price level does not react to the increase in the real price of oil following the increase of the global activity. Thus the effects of a positive global activity shock on the French economy transit exclusively through the indirect effects of global demand addressed to France.

Finally, the oil-specific demand shock has no significant effect on French GDP in the VARX approach. French Exports increase by 0.8% after two quarters, in line with the significant increase in global industrial production following an oil-specific demand shock in the structural VAR. French CPI increases by 0.3% after one year and interest rates increase by up to 84 basis points after two years and a half. Hence, in the case of an oil-specific demand shock, the direct effects of the increase in the real price of oil, and the indirect effects from the puzzling increase in global activity cancel out.
## 4.2 Robustness Check

In order to check the robustness of our results, we compare the estimated impulse response functions of French GDP obtained through the VARX approach with those of the ARX. Results are presented in Figure (9).

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Figure 9: Impulse Response Functions to One-Standard-Deviation Structural Shocks. Comparison between our baseline methodology (black) and the Kilian ARX (red). Median and 95% Confidence Intervals (black) using Kilian's (1998) bootstrap-after-bootstrap</figcaption></figure>

The impulse response functions of French GDP to the first structural shock are almost identical, irrespective of the estimation methodology. They depict a significatively negative but delayed response of French GDP to a negative oil supply shock. Concerning the global activity shock, the response of French GDP is somewhat stronger in the ARX methodology, although this difference is not significant. Results are also quite close concerning the responses to an oil-specific demand shock.

## 4.3 Comparison with standard results in France

In order to compare our estimated effects of an increase in the real price of oil on the French economy with existing results in the literature, we now normalize the size of the three structural shocks, so that the peak in the response of the real price of oil is at 10 $. This corresponds to a 9.8-standard-deviation negative oil supply shock, a 3.7-standard-deviation positive global activity shock and a 1.0-standard-deviation positive oil-specific
demand shock. Table (1) summarizes the results of our VARX, as well as that of the model MÉSANGE<fnref n="2" />, presented in Klein and Simon (2010)<fnref n="3" /> and of the model NIGEM<fnref n="4" />, developed by the NIESR<fnref n="5" />.

These comparisons are only illustrative on the range of the effects but the results should not be compared too precisely. The simulations with the models correspond to a permanent increase in the oil price. While the simulations with our VARX correspond to an increase with a peak at 10 $ and then the oil price evolves on the period following the dynamics given by the estimation. The first shock, the oil supply shock, is probably the closest one, in its nature, to a simulation with a macroeconomic model in which the economy respond to an exogenous oil supply shock. The second shock, the global activity shock, would be closer, in its nature, to simulations including an exogenous oil price shock and an exogenous global demand shock such as the simulations presented in Klein and Simon (2010). The third shock, the oil-specific demand shock, is the more difficult to interpret through macroeconomic simulations since it could hinder forecasts on future global demand.

The response of both French GDP and French Exports is much more negative in standard models than in our VARX specification after 1 year. After 5 years, results provided by macroeconomic models concerning the effects of oil price shocks on the French economy fall in between the estimated effects of the different structural shocks using our baseline methodology.

The VARX approach emphasizes that not all oil price shocks are alike. It shows that simulations with macroeconomic models may be too schematic since oil price shocks are rarely pure. Disentangling oil price shocks depending on their nature is thus key to understanding their effects on the French economy.

<footnote n="2">²Modèle Économétrique de Simulation et d'Analyse Générale de l'Économie</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³The version of NIGEM is not the one used in Klein and Simon (2010), but a more recent version. The effects of the oil price shock on the global demand addressed to France is much greater when using this more recent version than in the original version</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴National Institute Global Economic Model</footnote>

<footnote n="5">⁵National Institute of Economic and Social Research</footnote>
<table><caption>Table 1: Comparison of the effects of the real price of oil on the French economy</caption><thead><tr><th>VARX RESULTS</th><th>after 1 year</th><th>after 5 years</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Oil Supply Shock</strong></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>GDP</td><td>-0.1</td><td>-2.3</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td>8.4</td><td>10.3</td></tr><tr><td>CPI</td><td>3.2</td><td>-2.1</td></tr><tr><td>Interest Rates (pp)</td><td>3.5</td><td>-1.3</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Global Activity Shock</strong></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>GDP</td><td>0.6</td><td>-0.6</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td>1.9</td><td>-1.0</td></tr><tr><td>CPI</td><td>-0.1</td><td>-1.8</td></tr><tr><td>Interest Rates (pp)</td><td>-0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Oil-Specific Demand Shock</strong></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>GDP</td><td>-0.1</td><td>-0.5</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td>0.5</td><td>-5.0</td></tr><tr><td>CPI</td><td>0.3</td><td>-0.2</td></tr><tr><td>Interest Rates (pp)</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr><tr><td><strong>MÉSANGE + NIGEM</strong></td><td>after 1 year</td><td>after 5 years</td></tr><tr><td>GDP</td><td>-0.4</td><td>-0.8</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td>-1.3</td><td>-2.2</td></tr><tr><td>CPI</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>Interest Rates (pp)</td><td>0.4</td><td>-0.1</td></tr><tr><td><strong>NIGEM</strong></td><td>after 1 year</td><td>after 5 years</td></tr><tr><td>GDP</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-0.4</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td>-2.0</td><td>-1.7</td></tr><tr><td>CPI</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>Interest Rates (pp)</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr></tbody></table>
# 5 Conclusion

Decomposing oil price shocks into three structural shocks à la Kilian (2009), we find that the effects of an increase in the real price of oil, and the channels through which it affects the French economy, differ greatly depending on the nature of the shock. Oil price shocks resulting from oil supply disruptions or oil-specific demand shocks have a negative effect on French GDP, transiting through the direct effects of the increase in the real price of oil on French CPI and interest rates. On the contrary, an unanticipated positive shock in the global economic activity tends to have a positive impact on French GDP, channeling through the global demand addressed to France, since the direct effects of the initial positive shock seem to dominate the negative effects stemming from the oil price surge.

While oil supply disruptions played an important role during the Iran-Iraq war in explaining the high levels of the real price of oil at that time, the recent increases in oil prices seem to be more driven by increased demand from new emerging economies. Our structural identification of the causes underlying the fluctuations in the real price of oil helps understand why higher oil prices seem to matter less today than in the 1970s and early 1980s. This methodology provides new explanations about the change that appears in the empirical relationship between oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic performance over the period. This paper also allows us to better understand the channels through which oil price shocks affect the French economy and to complete the view provided by the different models such as MÉSANGE.

Further investigation on the decomposition of this oil-specific demand shock between shifts in the oil-intensity of the world economy and speculation on the oil market is needed.
References

Barlet, M. and L. Crusson (2007). Quel impact des variations de prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ? *Document de Travail INSEE G2007/04*.

Barsky, R. B. and L. Kilian (2004). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s. *Journal of Economic Perspectives* 18 (4), 115–134.

Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. *Journal of Political Economy* 91 (2), 228–48.

Hamilton, J. D. (2011). Historical Oil Shocks. NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Kilian, L. (1998). Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions. *The Review of Economics and Statistics* 80 (2), 218–230.

Kilian, L. (2009). Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. *American Economic Review* 99 (3), 1053–69.

Kilian, L. and P.-L. Chang (2000). How Accurate are Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses in Large VAR Models? *Economics Letters* 69, 299–307.

Klein, C. and O. Simon (2010). Le Modèle MÉSANGE réestimé en base 2000. *Document de Travail INSEE G2010/03*.

Phillips, P. C. B. (1998). Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VARs. *Journal of Econometrics* 83 (1-2), 21–56.

Silvennoinen, A. and S. Thorp (2010). Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics. Research Paper Series 267, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

Sims, C. A., J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson (1990). Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots. *Econometrica* 58 (1), 113–144.
# A Construction of the monthly global Industrial Production Index

In order to disentangle the nature of the oil price shocks, it was necessary to build a monthly indicator able to capture global real activity, a proxy for the global demand for commodities. We decided to consider a global Industrial Production Index (IPI). Nevertheless, the data were only available from the World Bank for the global economy starting from 1991. So we had to construct a longer series using the pre-existent series from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for available countries.

Prior to 1991, we collected the different data series available and we constructed an index able to represent global industrial production. The IMF provides data starting from January 1970 for Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The index is set to 100 for the year 2005. These 16 countries represent a total share in global industrial production of 62.02% in 2005.

Our aim is to construct the best index in order to capture global real activity, thus we have to include countries even if the series do not begin in January 1970. When the data for a given country began between January 1970 and January 1991, we retropolated the series using our best available global IPI to take this country into account. For example, the IPI for Ireland begins in January 1975. Thus, we extend the series for this country following the methodology presented below:

* First, we add the data at the date they begin

* Second, we retropolate the series to January 1970 using the growth rate of the world IPI previously obtained

* Third, we compute a new world Index which contains the previous one and the index newly created.

We followed this methodology for three countries: Ireland, Mexico and Turkey. This pool of 19 countries represents 65.84% of global industrial production in 2005. Other countries like China or Brasil were not included in our pool because data were not available prior to 1991 but they did not account for a big share of the global industrial production at these dates.
Once we had computed an IPI for all these countries, we retropolated the World
Bank Index from January 1991 to January 1970 using the growth rate of the world
representative index previously built.
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<table><tr><td>G 9311</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br>Les décisions de financement des entreprises françaises : une évaluation empirique des théories de la structure optimale du capital</td></tr><tr><td>G 9312</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ<br>Q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers</td></tr><tr><td>G 9313</td><td>Équipes Amadeus (INSEE), Banque de France, Métric (DP)<br>Présentation des propriétés des principaux modèles macroéconomiques du Service Public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9314</td><td>B. CREPON - E. DUGUET<br>Research & Development, competition and innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9315</td><td>B. DORMONT<br>Quelle est l'influence du coût du travail sur l'emploi ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9316</td><td>D. BLANCHET - C. BROUSSE<br>Deux études sur l'âge de la retraite</td></tr><tr><td>G 9317</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br>Répartition du travail dans une population hétérogène : deux notes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9318</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER - N. PONTY<br>AMADEUS - an annual macro-economic model for the medium and long term</td></tr><tr><td>G 9319</td><td>G. CETTE - Ph. CUNÉO - D. EYSSARTIER - J. GAUTIÉ<br>Les effets sur l'emploi d'un abaissement du coût du travail des jeunes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9401</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br>Les structures par âge importent-elles ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9402</td><td>J. GAUTIÉ<br>Le chômage des jeunes en France : problème de formation ou phénomène de file d'attente ?<br>Quelques éléments du débat</td></tr><tr><td>G 9403</td><td>P. QUIRION<br>Les déchets en France : éléments statistiques et économiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9404</td><td>D. LADIRAY - M. GRUN-REHOMME<br>Lissage par moyennes mobiles - Le problème des extrémités de série</td></tr><tr><td>G 9405</td><td>V. MAILLARD<br>Theorie et pratique de la correction des effets de jours ouvrables</td></tr><tr><td>G 9406</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br>La décision d'investir</td></tr><tr><td>G 9407</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br>Les apports de l'économie industrielle pour définir la stratégie économique de l'hôpital public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9408</td><td>L. BLOCH, J. BOURDIEU, B. COLIN-SEDILLOT, G. LONGUEVILLE<br>Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté</td></tr><tr><td>G 9409</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER, P. MAIRE<br>Impacts macro-économiques de mesures d'aide au logement - quelques éléments d'évaluation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9410</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br>Suivi conjoncturel de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9411</td><td>C. DEFEUILLEY - Ph. QUIRION<br>Les déchets d'emballages ménagers : une analyse économique des politiques française et allemande</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9412</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br>Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité<br>Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9413</td><td>B. DORMONT - M. PAUCHET<br>L'évaluation de l'élasticité emploi-salaire dépend-elle des structures de qualification ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9414</td><td>I. KABLA<br>Le Choix de breveter une invention</td></tr><tr><td>G 9501</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. SEDILLOT<br>Irreversible Investment and Uncertainty: When is there a Value of Waiting?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9502</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ<br>Imperfections du marché du crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9503</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Les transformations de la demande de travail par qualification en France<br>Une étude sur la période 1970-1993</td></tr><tr><td>G 9504</td><td>N. GREENAN<br>Technologie, changement organisationnel, qualifications et emploi : une étude empirique sur l'industrie manufacturière</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Persistance des hiérarchies sectorielles de salaires: un réexamen sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505<br>Bis</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Persistance of inter-industry wages differentials: a reexamination on matched worker-firm panel data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9506</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br>Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective<br>NON PARU - article sorti dans Économie et Prévision n° 122 (1996) - pages 95 à 113</td></tr><tr><td>G 9507</td><td>G. CETTE - S. MAHFOUZ<br>Le partage primaire du revenu<br>Constat descriptif sur longue période</td></tr><tr><td>G 9601</td><td>Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direction de la Prévision - Érasme - INSEE - OFCE<br>Structures et propriétés de cinq modèles macroéconomiques français</td></tr><tr><td>G 9602</td><td>Rapport d'activité de la DESE de l'année 1995</td></tr><tr><td>G 9603</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - A. DRAZNIEKS<br>L'octroi de crédit aux PME : une analyse à partir d'informations bancaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9604</td><td>A. TOPIOL-BENSAÏD<br>Les implantations japonaises en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9605</td><td>P. GENIER - S. JACOBZONE<br>Comportements de prévention, consommation d'alcool et tabagie : peut-on parler d'une gestion globale du capital santé ?<br>Une modélisation microéconométrique empirique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9606</td><td>C. DOZ - F. LENGLART<br>Factor analysis and unobserved component models: an application to the study of French business surveys</td></tr><tr><td>G 9607</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br>La théorie coopérative de la firme</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>G 9608</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br>Technological innovation and employment<br>reallocation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9609</td><td>Ph. COUR - F. RUPPRECHT<br>L'intégration asymétrique au sein du continent<br>américain : un essai de modélisation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9610</td><td>S. DUCHENE - G. FORGEOT - A. JACQUOT<br>Analyse des évolutions récentes de la productivité apparente du travail</td></tr><tr><td>G 9611</td><td>X. BONNET - S. MAHFOUZ<br>The influence of different specifications of wages-prices spirals on the measure of the NAIRU: the case of France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9612</td><td>PH. COUR - E. DUBOIS, S. MAHFOUZ, J. PISANI-FERRY<br>The cost of fiscal retrenchment revisited: how strong is the evidence?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9613</td><td>A. JACQUOT<br>Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9614</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br>Lexique macroéconomique Français-Chinois</td></tr><tr><td>G 9701</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br>La taxe professionnelle : éléments de cadrage économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9702</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br>Transition et stabilité politique d'un système redistributif</td></tr><tr><td>G 9703</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Train or Pay: Does it Reduce Inequalities to Encourage Firms to Train their Workers?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9704</td><td>P. GENIER<br>Deux contributions sur dépendance et équité</td></tr><tr><td>G 9705</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br>R & D Investment, Patent Life and Patent Value<br>An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level</td></tr><tr><td>G 9706</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE - A. TOPIOL-BENSAÎD<br>Les entreprises internationales en France : une analyse à partir de données individuelles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9707</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE<br>Polarisation des activités et spécialisation des départements en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9708</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. GREENAN<br>Le biais technologique : une analyse sur données individuelles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9709</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Analyzing a small French ECM Model</td></tr><tr><td>G 9710</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Formalizing the transition process: scenarios for capital accumulation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9711</td><td>G. FORGEOT - J. GAUTIÉ<br>Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et processus de déclassement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9712</td><td>E. DUBOIS<br>High Real Interest Rates: the Consequence of a Saving Investment Disequilibrium or of an insufficient Credibility of Monetary Authorities?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9713</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques - 1996</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9714</td><td>F. LEQUILLER<br>Does the French Consumer Price Index Overstate Inflation?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9715</td><td>X. BONNET<br>Peut-on mettre en évidence les rigidités à la baisse des salaires nominaux ?<br>Une étude sur quelques grands pays de l'OCDE</td></tr><tr><td>G 9716</td><td>N. IUNG - F. RUPPRECHT<br>Productivité de la recherche et rendements d'échelle dans le secteur pharmaceutique français</td></tr><tr><td>G 9717</td><td>E. DUGUET - I. KABLA<br>Appropriation strategy and the motivations to use the patent system in France - An econometric analysis at the firm level</td></tr><tr><td>G 9718</td><td>L.P. PELÉ - P. RALLE<br>Âge de la retraite : les aspects incitatifs du régime général</td></tr><tr><td>G 9719</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br>Lexique macroéconomique français-chinois, chinois-français</td></tr><tr><td>G 9720</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE - J.L. SCHNEIDER<br>Mesurer l'influence de la fiscalité sur la localisation des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9721</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br>Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire<br>Une revue de la littérature</td></tr><tr><td>G 9722</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - L. BRIOT<br>Les données comptables d'entreprises<br>Le système intermédiaire d'entreprises<br>Passage des données individuelles aux données sectorielles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9723</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - J.E. CHAPRON<br>Using Business Accounts for Compiling National Accounts: the French Experience</td></tr><tr><td>G 9724</td><td>P. AUGERAUD<br>Les comptes d'entreprise par activités - Le passage aux comptes - De la comptabilité d'entreprise à la comptabilité nationale - A paraitre</td></tr><tr><td>G 9801</td><td>H. MICHAUDON - C. PRIGENT<br>Présentation du modèle AMADEUS</td></tr><tr><td>G 9802</td><td>J. ACCARDO<br>Une étude de comptabilité générationnelle pour la France en 1996</td></tr><tr><td>G 9803</td><td>X. BONNET - S. DUCHÈNE<br>Apports et limites de la modélisation « Real Business Cycles »</td></tr><tr><td>G 9804</td><td>C. BARLET - C. DUGUET - D. ENCAOUA - J. PRADEL<br>The Commercial Success of Innovations<br>An econometric analysis at the firm level in French manufacturing</td></tr><tr><td>G 9805</td><td>P. CAHUC - Ch. GIANELLA - D. GOUX - A. ZILBERBERG<br>Equalizing Wage Differences and Bargaining Power - Evidence form a Panel of French Firms</td></tr><tr><td>G 9806</td><td>J. ACCARDO - M. JLASSI<br>La productivité globale des facteurs entre 1975 et 1996</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9807</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques - 1997</td></tr><tr><td>G 9808</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br>Can a Conservative Governor Conduct an Accomodative Monetary Policy?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9809</td><td>X. BONNET - E. DUBOIS - L. FAUVET<br>Asymétrie des inflations relatives et menus costs : tests sur l'inflation française</td></tr><tr><td>G 9810</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br>Sales and Advertising with Spillovers at the firm level: Estimation of a Dynamic Structural Model on Panel Data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9811</td><td>J.P. BERTHIER<br>Congestion urbaine : un modèle de trafic de pointe à courbe débit-vitesse et demande élastique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9812</td><td>C. PRIGENT<br>La part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée : une approche macroéconomique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9813</td><td>A.Th. AERTS<br>L'évolution de la part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée en France reflète-t-elle les évolutions individuelles sur la période 1979-1994 ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9814</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br>Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9901</td><td>S. DUCHÈNE - A. JACQUOT<br>Une croissance plus riche en emplois depuis le début de la décennie ? Une analyse en comparaison internationale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9902</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br>Modélisation des carrières dans Destinie</td></tr><tr><td>G 9903</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br>Évolution de la dispersion des salaires : un essai de prospective par microsimulation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9904</td><td>B. CREPON - N. IUNG<br>Innovation, emploi et performances</td></tr><tr><td>G 9905</td><td>B. CREPON - Ch. GIANELLA<br>Wages inequalities in France 1969-1992<br>An application of quantile regression techniques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9906</td><td>C. BONNET - R. MAHIEU<br>Microsimulation techniques applied to intergenerational transfers - Pensions in a dynamic framework: the case of France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9907</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br>L'impact des contraintes financières dans la décision d'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9908</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1998</td></tr><tr><td>G 9909</td><td>J.P. ZOYEM<br>Contrat d'insertion et sortie du RMI<br>Évaluation des effets d'une politique sociale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9910</td><td>Ch. COLIN - FI. LEGROS - R. MAHIEU<br>Bilans contributifs comparés des régimes de retraite du secteur privé et de la fonction publique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9911</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br>Une décomposition du non-emploi en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9912</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br>Une maquette analytique de long terme du marché du travail</td></tr><tr><td>G 9913</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br>Ch. GIANELLA<br>Local unemployment and wages</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>Bis</td><td>Une estimation de l'élasticité de l'emploi peu qualifié à son coût</td></tr><tr><td>G 9913</td><td>Division « Redistribution et Politiques Sociales »<br>Le modèle de microsimulation dynamique DESTINIE</td></tr><tr><td>G 9914</td><td>E. DUGUET<br>Macro-commandes SAS pour l'économie des panels et des variables qualitatives</td></tr><tr><td>G 9915</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br>Évolution des flux d'emplois en France entre 1990 et 1996 : une étude empirique à partir du fichier des bénéfices réels normaux (BRN)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9916</td><td>J.Y. FOURNIER<br>Extraction du cycle des affaires : la méthode de Baxter et King</td></tr><tr><td>G 9917</td><td>B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ - J. MAIRESSE<br>Estimating price cost margins, scale economies and workers' bargaining power at the firm level</td></tr><tr><td>G 9918</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA - Ph. LAGARDE<br>Productivity of hours in the aggregate production function: an evaluation on a panel of French firms from the manufacturing sector</td></tr><tr><td>G 9919</td><td>S. AUDRIC - P. GIVORD - C. PROST<br>Évolution de l'emploi et des coûts par qualification entre 1982 et 1996</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/01</td><td>R. MAHIEU<br>Les déterminants des dépenses de santé : une approche macroéconomique</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/02</td><td>C. ALLARD-PRIGENT - H. GUILMEAU - A. QUINET<br>The real exchange rate as the relative price of nontrables in terms of tradables: theoretical investigation and empirical study on French data</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/03</td><td>J.-Y. FOURNIER<br>L'approximation du filtre passe-bande proposée par Christiano and Fitzgerald</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/04</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1999</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/05</td><td>B. CREPON - F. ROSENWALD<br>Investissement et contraintes de financement : le poids du cycle<br>Une estimation sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/06</td><td>A. FLIPO<br>Les comportements matrimoniaux de fait</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/07</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br>Microsimulations of the retirement decision: a supply side approach</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/08</td><td>C. AUDENIS - C. PROST<br>Déficit conjoncturel : une prise en compte des conjonctures passées</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/09</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br>Équivalent patrimonial de la rente et souscription de retraite complémentaire</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/10</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br>Ralentissement de l'investissement : petites ou grandes entreprises ? industrie ou tertiaire ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/11</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br>Temps partiel féminin et incitations financières à l'emploi</td></tr><tr><td>G2000/12</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br>Local unemployment and wages</td></tr></table>
G2001/13 B. CREPON - Th. HECKEL
- Informatisation en France : une évaluation à partir de données individuelles
- Computerization in France: an evaluation based on individual company data

G2001/01 F. LEQUILLER
- La nouvelle économie et la mesure de la croissance du PIB
- The new economy and the measurement of GDP growth

G2001/02 S. AUDRIC
La reprise de la croissance de l'emploi profite-t-elle aussi aux non-diplômés ?

G2001/03 I. BRAUN-LEMAIRE
Évolution et répartition du surplus de productivité

G2001/04 A. BEAUDU - Th. HECKEL
Le canal du crédit fonctionne-t-il en Europe ? Une étude de l'hétérogénéité des comportements d'investissement à partir de données de bilan agrégées

G2001/05 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE - O. LOISEL
Testing the augmented Solow growth model: An empirical reassessment using panel data

G2001/06 R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT
Départ à la retraite, irréversibilité et incertitude

G2001/07 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2000

G2001/08 J. Ph. GAUDEMET
Les dispositifs d'acquisition à titre facultatif d'annuités viagères de retraite

G2001/09 B. CRÉPON - Ch. GIANELLA
Fiscalité, coût d'usage du capital et demande de facteurs : une analyse sur données individuelles

G2001/10 B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ
Évaluation des effets des dispositifs d'allégements de charges sociales sur les bas salaires

G2001/11 J.-Y. FOURNIER
Comparaison des salaires des secteurs public et privé

G2001/12 J.-P. BERTHIER - C. JAULENT
R. CONVENEVOLE - S. PISANI
Une méthodologie de comparaison entre consommations intermédiaires de source fiscale et de comptabilité nationale

G2001/13 P. BISCOURP - Ch. GIANELLA
Substitution and complementarity between capital, skilled and less skilled workers: an analysis at the firm level in the French manufacturing industry

G2001/14 I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Modelling demographic behaviours in the French microsimulation model Destinie: An analysis of future change in completed fertility

G2001/15 J.-P. ZOYEM
Diagnostic sur la pauvreté et calendrier de revenus : le cas du "Panel européen des ménages"

G2001/16 J.-Y. FOURNIER - P. GIVORD
La réduction des taux d'activité aux âges extrêmes, une spécificité française ?

G2001/17 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. RIEDINGER
Existe-t-il une asymétrie dans la transmission du prix du brut aux prix des carburants ?

G2002/01 F. MAGNIEN - J.-L. TAVERNIER - D. THESMAR
Les statistiques internationales de PIB par habitant en standard de pouvoir d'achat : une analyse des résultats

G2002/02 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2001

G2002/03 B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ?

G2002/04 G. BRILHAULT
- Rétrogradation des séries de FBCF et calcul du capital fixe en SEC-95 dans les comptes nationaux français

- Retropagation of the investment series (GFCF) and estimation of fixed capital stocks on the ESA-95 basis for the French balance sheets

G2002/05 P. BISCOURP - B. CRÉPON - T. HECKEL - N. RIEDINGER
How do firms respond to cheaper computers? Microeconomic evidence for France based on a production function approach

G2002/06 C. AUDENIS - J. DEROYON - N. FOURCADE
L'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication sur l'économie française - un bouclage macro-économique

G2002/07 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Évaluation de trois réformes du Régime Général d'assurance vieillesse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2002/08 J.-P. BERTHIER
Réflexions sur les différentes notions de volume dans les comptes nationaux : comptes aux prix d'une année fixe ou aux prix de l'année précédente, séries chaînées

G2002/09 F. HILD
Les soldes d'opinion résument-ils au mieux les réponses des entreprises aux enquêtes de conjoncture ?

G2002/10 I. ROBERT-BOBÉE
Les comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation Destinie - Une comparaison des estimations issues des enquêtes Jeunes et Carrières 1997 et Histoire Familiale 1999

G2002/11 J.-P. ZOYEM
La dynamique des bas revenus : une analyse des entrées-sorties de pauvreté

G2002/12 F. HILD
Prévisions d'inflation pour la France

G2002/13 M. LECLAIR
Réduction du temps de travail et tensions sur les facteurs de production

G2002/14 E. WALRAET - A. VINCENT
- Analyse de la redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé - Une approche par microsimulation

- Intragenerational distributional analysis in the french private sector pension scheme - A microsimulation approach

G2002/15 P. CHONE - D. LE BLANC - I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Offre de travail féminine et garde des jeunes enfants

G2002/16 F. MAUREL - S. GREGOIR
Les indices de compétitivité des pays : interprétation et limites

G2003/01 N. RIEDINGER - E.HAUVY
Le coût de dépollution atmosphérique pour les entreprises françaises : Une estimation à partir de données individuelles

G2003/02 P. BISCOURP et F. KRAMARZ
Création d'emplois, destruction d'emplois et internationalisation des entreprises industrielles françaises : une analyse sur la période 1986-1992

G2003/03 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2002

G2003/04 P.-O. BEFFY - J. DEROYON - N. FOURCADE - S. GREGOIR - N. LAÎB - B. MONFORT
Évolutions démographiques et croissance : une projection macro-économique à l'horizon 2020

G2003/05 P. AUBERT
La situation des salariés de plus de cinquante ans dans le secteur privé

G2003/06 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON
Age, salaire et productivité
La productivité des salariés décline-t-elle en fin de carrière ?

G2003/07 H. BARON - P.O. BEFFY - N. FOURCADE - R. MAHIEU
Le ralentissement de la productivité du travail au cours des années 1990

G2003/08 P.-O. BEFFY - B. MONFORT
Patrimoine des ménages, dynamique d'allocation et comportement de consommation

G2003/09 P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE
Peut-on mettre en évidence l'existence de rigidités à la baisse des salaires à partir de données individuelles ? Le cas de la France à la fin des années 90

G2003/10 M. LECLAIR - P. PETIT
Présence syndicale dans les firmes : quel impact sur les inégalités salariales entre les hommes et les femmes ?

G2003/11 P.-O. BEFFY - X. BONNET - M. DARRACQ-PARIES - B. MONFORT
MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

G2004/01 P. AUBERT - M. LECLAIR
La compétitivité exprimée dans les enquêtes trimestrielles sur la situation et les perspectives dans l'industrie

G2004/02 M. DUÉE - C. REBILLARD
La dépendance des personnes âgées : une projection à long terme

G2004/03 S. RASPILLER - N. RIEDINGER
Régulation environnementale et choix de localisation des groupes français

G2004/04 A. NABOULET - S. RASPILLER
Les déterminants de la décision d'investir : une approche par les perceptions subjectives des firmes

G2004/05 N. RAGACHE
La déclaration des enfants par les couples non mariés est-elle fiscalement optimale ?

G2004/06 M. DUÉE
L'impact du chômage des parents sur le devenir scolaire des enfants

G2004/07 P. AUBERT - E. CAROLI - M. ROGER
New Technologies, Workplace Organisation and the Age Structure of the Workforce: Firm-Level Evidence

G2004/08 E. DUGUET - C. LELARGE
Les brevets accroissent-ils les incitations privées à innover ? Un examen microéconomique

G2004/09 S. RASPILLER - P. SILLARD
Affiliating versus Subcontracting: the Case of Multinationals

G2004/10 J. BOISSINOT - C. L'ANGEVIN - B. MONFORT
Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case

G2004/11 S. ANANIAN - P. AUBERT
Travailleurs âgés, nouvelles technologies et changements organisationnels : un réexamen à partir de l'enquête « REPONSE »

G2004/12 X. BONNET - H. PONCET
Structures de revenus et propensions différentes à consommer - Vers une équation de consommation des ménages plus robuste en prévision pour la France

G2004/13 C. PICART
Évaluer la rentabilité des sociétés non financières

G2004/14 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Les retraites du secteur public : projections à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2005/01 S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Conditions de départ en retraite selon l'âge de fin d'études : analyse prospective pour les générations 1945 à 1974

G2005/02 C. AFSA - S. BUFFETEAU
L'évolution de l'activité féminine en France : une approche par pseudo-panel

G2005/03 P. AUBERT - P. SILLARD
Délocalisations et réductions d'effectifs dans l'industrie française

G2005/04 M. LECLAIR - S. ROUX
Mesure et utilisation des emplois instables dans les entreprises

G2005/05 C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances à l'exportation de la France et de l'Allemagne - Une analyse par secteur et destination géographique

G2005/06 Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques - 2004

G2005/07 S. RASPILLER
La concurrence fiscale : principaux enseignements de l'analyse économique

G2005/08 C. L'ANGEVIN - N. LAÎB
Éducation et croissance en France et dans un panel de 21 pays de l'OCDE

G2005/09 N. FERRARI
Prévoir l'investissement des entreprises
Un indicateur des révisions dans l'enquête de conjoncture sur les investissements dans l'industrie.

G2005/10 P.-O. BEFFY - C. L'ANGEVIN
Chômage et boucle prix-salaires :
apport d'un modèle « qualifiés/peu qualifiés »

G2005/11 B. HEITZ
A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation in France and the USA: credible target VS inflation spiral

G2005/12 O. BIAU - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - N. FERRARI
Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision macroéconomiques :
Exemple de la prévision de la production manufacturière

G2005/13 P. AUBERT - D. BLANCHET - D. BLAU
The labour market after age 50: some elements of a Franco-American comparison

G2005/14 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND - P. DOURGNON - P. POLLET
L'enquête SHARE : présentation et premiers résultats de l'édition française

G2005/15 M. DUÈE
La modélisation des comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2005/16 H. RAOUI - S. ROUX
Étude de simulation sur la participation versée aux salariés par les entreprises

G2006/01 C. BONNET - S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Disparités de retraite de droit direct entre hommes et femmes : quelles évolutions ?

G2006/02 C. PICART
Les gazelles en France

G2006/03 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON - P. ZAMORA
Le rendement apparent de la formation continue dans les entreprises : effets sur la productivité et les salaires

G2006/04 J.-F. OUVRARD - R. RATHELOT
Demographic change and unemployment: what do macroeconometric models predict?

G2006/05 D. BLANCHET - J.-F. OUVRARD
Indicateurs d'engagements implicites des systèmes de retraite : chiffrages, propriétés analytiques et réactions à des chocs démographiques types

G2006/06 G. BIAU - O. BIAU - L. ROUVIERE
Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

G2006/07 C. AFSA - P. GIVORD
Le rôle des conditions de travail dans les absences pour maladie

G2006/08 P. SILLARD - C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances comparées à l'exportation de la France et de ses principaux partenaires
Une analyse structurelle sur 12 ans

G2006/09 X. BOUTIN - S. QUANTIN
Une méthodologie d'évaluation comptable du coût du capital des entreprises françaises : 1984-2002

G2006/10 C. AFSA
L'estimation d'un coût implicite de la pénibilité du travail chez les travailleurs âgés

G2006/11 C. LELARGE
Les entreprises (industrielles) françaises sont-elles à la frontière technologique ?

G2006/12 O. BIAU - N. FERRARI
Théorie de l'opinion
Faut-il pondérer les réponses individuelles ?

G2006/13 A. KOUBI - S. ROUX
Une réréprétrétation de la relation entre productivité et inégalités salariales dans les entreprises

G2006/14 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
The impact of local taxes on plants location decision

G2006/15 L. GONZALEZ - C. PICART
Diversification, recentrage et poids des activités de support dans les groupes (1993-2000)

G2007/01 D. SRAER
Allègements de cotisations patronales et dynamique salariale

G2007/02 V. ALBOUY - L. LEQUIEN
Les rendements non monétaires de l'éducation : le cas de la santé

G2007/03 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND
Aspiration à la retraite, santé et satisfaction au travail : une comparaison européenne

G2007/04 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON
Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?

G2007/05 C. PICART
Flux d'emploi et de main-d'œuvre en France : un réexamen

G2007/06 V. ALBOUY - C. TAVAN
Massification et démocratisation de l'enseignement supérieur en France

G2007/07 T. LE BARBANCHON
The Changing response to oil price shocks in France: a DSGE type approach

G2007/08 T. CHANEY - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Collateral Value and Corporate Investment Evidence from the French Real Estate Market

G2007/09 J. BOISSINOT
Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts for France

G2007/10 C. AFSA
Interpréter les variables de satisfaction : l'exemple de la durée du travail

G2007/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
Zones Franches Urbaines : quels effets sur l'emploi salarié et les créations d'établissements ?

G2007/12 V. ALBOUY - B. CRÉPON
Aléa moral en santé : une évaluation dans le cadre du modèle causal de Rubin

G2008/01 C. PICART
Les PME françaises : rentables mais peu dynamiques

G2008/02 P. BISCOURP - X. BOUTIN - T. VERGÉ
The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices Evidence form the Loi Galland

G2008/03 Y. BARBESOL - A. BRIANT
Économies d'agglomération et productivité des entreprises : estimation sur données individuelles françaises

G2008/04 D. BLANCHET - F. LE GALLO
Les projections démographiques : principaux mécanismes et retour sur l'expérience française

G2008/05 D. BLANCHET - F. TOUTLEMONDE
Évolutions démographiques et déformation du cycle de vie active : quelles relations ?

G2008/06 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - L. CRUSSON
Internationalisation et flux d'emplois : que dit une approche comptable ?

G2008/07 C. LELARGE - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints - Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee Program

G2008/08 X. BOUTIN - L. JANIN
Are Prices Really Affected by Mergers?

G2008/09 M. BARLET - A. BRIANT - L. CRUSSON
Concentration géographique dans l'industrie manufacturière et dans les services en France : une approche par un indicateur en continu

G2008/10 M. BEFFY - É. COUDIN - R. RATHELOT
Who is confronted to insecure labor market histories? Some evidence based on the French labor market transition

G2008/11 M. ROGER - E. WALRAET
Social Security and Well-Being of the Elderly: the Case of France

G2008/12 C. AFSA
Analyser les composantes du bien-être et de son évolution

G2008/13 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - T. LE BARBANCHON
Microsimuler le marché du travail : un prototype

G2008/13 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - T. LE BARBANCHON
Microsimuler le marché du travail : un prototype

G2009/01 P.-A. PIONNIER
Le partage de la valeur ajoutée en France, 1949-2007

G2009/02 Laurent CLAVEL - Christelle MINODIER
A Monthly Indicator of the French Business Climate

G2009/03 H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - C. MINODIER
Do Business Tendency Surveys in Industry and Services Help in Forecasting GDP Growth?
A Real-Time Analysis on French Data

G2009/04 P. GIVORD - L. WILNER
Les contrats temporaires : trappe ou marchepied vers l'emploi stable ?

G2009/05 G. LALANNE - P.-A. PIONNIER - O. SIMON
Le partage des fruits de la croissance de 1950 à 2008 : une approche par les comptes de surplus

G2009/06 L. DAVEZIES - X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE
Faut-il pondérer ?... Ou l'éternelle question de l'économétre confronté à des données d'enquête

G2009/07 S. QUANTIN - S. RASPILLER - S. SERRAVALLE
Commerce intragroupe, fiscalité et prix de transferts : une analyse sur données françaises

G2009/08 M. CLERC - V. MARCUS
Élasticités-prices des consommations énergétiques des ménages

G2009/09 G. LALANNE - E. POULIQUEN - O. SIMON
Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long terme

G2009/10 D. BLANCHET - J. LE CACHEUX - V. MARCUS
Adjusted net savings and other approaches to sustainability: some theoretical background

G2009/11 V. BELLAMY - G. CONSALES - M. FESSEAU - S. LE LAIDIER - É. RAYNAUD
Une décomposition du compte des ménages de la comptabilité nationale par catégorie de ménage en 2003

G2009/12 J. BARDAJI - F. TALLET
Detecting Economic Regimes in France: a Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using Mixed Frequency Data

G2009/13 R. AEBERHARDT - D. FOUGÈRE - R. RATHELOT
Discrimination à l'embauche : comment exploiter les procédures de testing ?

G2009/14 Y. BARBESOL - P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN
Partage de la valeur ajoutée, approche par données microéconomiques

G2009/15 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE
The Effect of the Uruguay round on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade

G2010/01 C. MINODIER
Avantages comparés des séries des premières valeurs publiées et des séries des valeurs révisées - Un exercice de prévision en temps réel de la croissance trimestrielle du PIB en France

G2010/02 V. ALBOUY - L. DAVEZIES - T. DEBRAND
Health Expenditure Models: a Comparison of Five Specifications using Panel Data

G2010/03 C. KLEIN - O. SIMON
Le modèle MÉSANGE réestimé en base 2000
Tome 1 - Version avec volumes à prix constants

G2010/04 M.-É. CLERC - É. COUDIN
L'IPC, miroir de l'évolution du coût de la vie en France ? Ce qu'apporte l'analyse des courbes d'Engel

G2010/05 N. CECI-RENAUD - P.-A. CHEVALIER
Les seuils de 10, 20 et 50 salariés : impact sur la taille des entreprises françaises

G2010/06 R. AEBERHARDT - J. POUGET
National Origin Differences in Wages and Hierarchical Positions - Evidence on French Full-Time Male Workers from a matched Employer-Employee Dataset

G2010/07 S. BLASCO - P. GIVORD
Les trajectoires professionnelles en début de vie active : quel impact des contrats temporaires ?

G2010/08 P. GIVORD
Méthodes économétriques pour l'évaluation de politiques publiques
G2010/09 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. LAPÈGUE - E. POULIQUEN - M. BEFFY - M. GAINI Quelle croissance de moyen terme après la crise ?

G2010/10 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE La réaction des entreprises françaises à la baisse des tarifs douaniers étrangers

G2010/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD L'apport des méthodes à noyaux pour mesurer la concentration géographique - Application à la concentration des immigrés en France de 1968 à 1999

G2010/12 M. BARATON - M. BEFFY - D. FOUGÈRE Une évaluation de l'effet de la réforme de 2003 sur les départs en retraite - Le cas des enseignants du second degré public

G2010/13 D. BLANCHET - S. BUFFETEAU - E. CRENNER S. LE MINEZ Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2: principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats

G2010/14 D. BLANCHET - E. CRENNER Le bloc retraites du modèle Destinie 2: guide de l'utilisateur

G2010/15 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON - S. DUPUCH - F. PUECH Des services échangés aux services échangeables : une application sur données françaises

G2010/16 M. BEFFY - T. KAMIONKA Public-private wage gaps: is civil-servant human capital sector-specific?

G2010/17 P.-Y. CABANNES - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - G. LALANNE - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Le modèle Mésange réestimé en base 2000 Tome 2 - Version avec volumes à prix chaînés

G2010/18 R. AEBERHARDT - L. DAVEZIES Conditional Logit with one Binary Covariate: Link between the Static and Dynamic Cases

G2011/01 T. LE BARBANCHON - B. OURLIAC - O. SIMON Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjoncturels des années 1986 à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE

G2011/02 C. MARBOT Une évaluation de la réduction d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile

G2011/03 L. DAVEZIES Modèles à effets fixes, à effets aléatoires, modèles mixtes ou multi-niveaux: propriétés et mises en œuvre des modélisations de l'hétérogénéité dans le cas de données groupées

G2011/04 M. ROGER - M. WASMER Heterogeneity matters: labour productivity differentiated by age and skills

G2011/05 J.-C. BRICONGNE - J.-M. FOURNIER V. LAPÈGUE - O. MONSO De la crise financière à la crise économique L'impact des perturbations financières de 2007 et 2008 sur la croissance de sept pays industrialisés

G2011/06 P. CHARNOZ - É. COUDIN - M. GAINI Wage inequalities in France 1976-2004: a quantile regression analysis

G2011/07 M. CLERC - M. GAINI - D. BLANCHET Recommendations of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report: A few illustrations

G2011/08 M. BACHELET - M. BEFFY - D. BLANCHET Projeter l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus: une comparaison de trois modèles

G2011/09 C. LOUVOT-RUNAVOT L'évaluation de l'activité dissimulée des entreprises sur la base des contrôles fiscaux et son insertion dans les comptes nationaux

G2011/10 A. SCHREIBER - A. VICARD La tertiairisation de l'économie française et le ralentissement de la productivité entre 1978 et 2008

G2011/11 M.-É. CLERC - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Les inégalités entre générations depuis le baby-boom

G2011/12 C. MARBOT et D. ROY Évaluation de la transformation de la réduction d'impôt en crédit d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile en 2007

G2011/13 P. GIVORD - R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects: An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program

G2011/14 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. GIVORD - X. BOUTIN The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: the Case of the French "Bonus/Malus"

G2011/15 M. BARLET - M. CLERC - M. GARNEO - V. LAPÈGUE - V. MARCUS La nouvelle version du modèle MZE, modèle macroéconomique pour la zone euro

G2011/16 R. AEBERHARDT - I. BUONO - H. FADINGER Learning, Incomplete Contracts and Export Dynamics: theory and Evidence from French Firms

G2011/17 C. KERDRAIN - V. LAPÈGUE Restrictive Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Likely Effects?

G2012/01 P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN - C. TREVIEN A Long-Term Evaluation of the First Generation of the French Urban Enterprise Zones

G2012/02 N. CECI-RENAUD - V. COTTET Politique salariale et performance des entreprises

G2012/03 P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Do Consumers Correctly Expect Price Reductions? Testing Dynamic Behavior

G2012/04 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD School as a shelter? School leaving-age and the business cycle in France

G2012/05 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD A scarred generation? French evidence on young people entering into a tough labour market

G2012/06 P. AUBERT - M. BACHELET Disparités de montant de pension et redistribution dans le système de retraite français

G2012/07 R. AEBERHARDT - P. GIVORD - C. MARBOT Spillover Effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach

G2012/08 A. EIDELMAN - F. LANGUMIER - A. VICARD Prélèvements obligatoires reposant sur les ménages: des canaux redistributifs différents en 1990 et 2010

G2012/09 O. BARGAIN - A. VICARD Le RMI et son successeur le RSA découragent-ils certains jeunes de travailler ? Une analyse sur les jeunes autour de 25 ans

G2012/10 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie

G2012/11 A. AUROUX Le crédit d'impôt dédié au développement durable: une évaluation économique

G2012/12 V. COTTET - S. QUANTIN - V. RÉGNIER Coût du travail et allègements de charges: une estimation au niveau établissement de 1996 à 2008

G2012/13 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE, P. FEVRIER et L. WILNER Demand Estimation in the Presence of Revenue Management

G2012/14 D. BLANCHET et S. LE MINEZ Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms

G2013/01- F1301 T. DEROYON - A. MONTAUT et P-A PIONNIER Utilisation rétrospective de l'enquête Emploi à une fréquence mensuelle: apport d'une modélisation espace-état

G2013/02- F1302 C. TRÉVIEN Habiter en HLM: quel avantage monétaire et quel impact sur les conditions de logement ?

G2013/03 A. POISSONNIER Temporal disaggregation of stock variables - The Chow-Lin method extended to dynamic models

G2013/04 P. GIVORD - C. MARBOT Does the cost of child care affect female labor market participation? An evaluation of a French reform of childcare subsidies

G2013/05 G. LAME - M. LEQUIEN - P.-A. PIONNIER Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance

G2013/06 C. BELLEGO - V. DORTET-BERNADET La participation aux pôles de compétitivité: quelle incidence sur les dépenses de R&D et l'activité des PME et ETI ?

G2013/07 P-Y. CABANNES - A. MONTAUT - P-A. PIONNIER Évaluer la productivité globale des facteurs en France: l'apport d'une mesure de la qualité du capital et du travail

G2013/08 R. AEBERHARDT - C. MARBOT Evolution of Instability on the French Labour Market During the Last Thirty Years

G2013/09 J-B. BERNARD - G. CLÉAUD Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy