Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge
of two karst systems computing different modelling
approaches

Yvan Caballero, Laila Zerouali, Bernard Ladouche, Sandra Lanini,
Jean-Jacques Seguin, Jean-Baptiste Charlier, Laurent Cadilhac,
Jean-Christophe Maréchal, C. Pages

► To cite this version:

Yvan Caballero, Laila Zerouali, Bernard Ladouche, Sandra Lanini, Jean-Jacques Seguin, et al.. Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge of two karst systems computing different modelling approaches. Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC) Conference: International scientific conference, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 2015. hal-01196706

HAL Id: hal-01196706

https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01196706

Submitted on 10 Sep 2015

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Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge
of two karst systems computing different modelling
approaches

Yvan Caballero, Laila Zerouali, Bernard Ladouche, Sandra Lanini,
Jean-Jacques Seguin, Jean-Baptiste Charlier, Laurent Cadilhac,
Jean-Christophe Maréchal, Christian Pagé

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

To cite this version:

Yvan Caballero, Laila Zerouali, Bernard Ladouche, Sandra Lanini, Jean-Jacques Seguin, et al. Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge of two karst systems computing different modelling approaches. International Scientific Conference: Our Common Future under Climate Change, Jul 2015, Paris, France. <hal-01196735>

HAL Id: hal-01196735

https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01196735

Submitted on 10 Sep 2015
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access
archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-
entific research documents, whether they are pub-
lished or not. The documents may come from
teaching and research institutions in France or
abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est
destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents
scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non,
émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de
recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires
publics ou privés.
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# Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge of two karst systems computing different modelling approaches

Caballero Y.*¹, Zerouali, L.¹, Ladouche B.¹, Lanini S.¹, Seguin J.J.², Charlier J.B.¹, Cadilhac L.³, Maréchal J.C.¹, Pagé C.⁴

1 – BRGM, D3E/NRE, Montpellier, France ; 2 – BRGM, D3E/GDR, Orléans, France ; 3 – RM&C Water Agency, Lyon, France ; 4 – CERFACS, Toulouse, France

Contact: y.caballero@brgm.fr

The Lez and the Lison karst systems in Southern and Eastern France respectively, provide 2 examples of karst systems of several km² under two contrasted climate conditions, the first one being heavily exploited. Using a multi-method recharge estimation tool a comparative climate change assessment on both karst systems is performed using three IPCC SRES A1B climate scenarios. Results are compared and discussed using the information provided by the application of the multi-method estimation of recharge on both systems.

## 2 contrasted karst systems:
The Lez and the Lison springs

The Lez and the Lison karst systems in Southern and Eastern France, respectively, are submitted to contrasted climate conditions. The Lez system is being heavily exploited by pumping boreholes while the Lison is not exploited at all.

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

## ESPERE a multi-method recharge estimation tool

ESPERE applies different commonly-used methods to fast and simultaneously estimate recharge. It allows quantifying recharge with a monthly and annual time step and visualizing related uncertainties (including a comparison with SURFEX (Masson et al., 2013)).

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Lez</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Lison</figcaption></figure>

## 3 climate scenarios (SCRATCH 2010)

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>SAFRAN (8x8km) scale</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

Downscaling using a weather-typing based statistical methodology
Pagé and Terray, (2010)

Temperature and PET increase on both sites, with a higher intensity for the Lison system. Precipitation slightly decreases during the major part of the year for the Lison system while a more variable signal is observed on the Lez karst system

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Lez</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

The multi-method estimation is useful to discuss the aquifer size and its dynamics and to compare different systems with a common framework (Caballero et al., 2015)

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

ESPERE, an MS Excel + VBA application is a freely-available tool
(Lanini et al, submitted to Groundwater)

## Results

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

Future recharge is likely to decrease on both systems and seems to affect the Lez more severely. Due to the importance of the recharge process during autumn, the Lez system should be less sensitive to the strong impact observed during spring. The Lison system should in turn be more sensitive as recharge is quite similar in spring and autumn.