# Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis

Roberto Bilbao, Panos Athanasiadis, Leon Hermanson, Juliette Mignot, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Didier Swingedouw, Xian Wu, Pablo Ortega

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Roberto Bilbao, Panos Athanasiadis, Leon Hermanson, Juliette Mignot, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, et al.. Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis. EGU General Assembly 2022, May 2022, Vienne, Austria. pp.EGU22-13395, 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13395. hal-03869305

HAL Id: hal-03869305

https://hal.science/hal-03869305

Submitted on 6 Jun 2023

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# Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis

**Roberto Bilbao**<fnref n="1" />, **Panos Athanasiadis**<fnref n="2" />, **Leon Hermanson**<fnref n="3" />, **Juliette Mignot**<fnref n="4" />, **Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso**<fnref n="5" />, **Didier Swingedouw**<fnref n="6" />, **Xian Wu**<fnref n="7" />, and **Pablo Ortega**<fnref n="1" />

In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred: Mount Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal timescales and providing a high prediction potential. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of such volcanic eruptions on decadal prediction, which consists in performing initialised sets of predictions just before the three historical volcanic eruptions, but in which the volcanic aerosol forcing is excluded. The impact of the volcanic eruptions is therefore determined by comparing these new forecasts with those included in the corresponding retrospective prediction experiment DCPP-A, which include historical volcanic aerosol forcing. Here we present the results from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems (CanESM5, CESM1, EC-Earth3, HadGEM3, IPSL-CM6A and CMCC-CM2-SR5). The global mean temperature cooling is comparable among models and consistent with previous studies. The surface temperature response pattern in the first years is similar across all the models and for the individual volcanic eruptions. At later forecast times (years 6-9), differences among the models and eruptions emerge. Preliminary results show that the volcanic eruptions impact the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, as shown in previous studies, although some differences across models emerge, specifically on the ocean overturning and gyre circulation changes.

<footnote n="1">¹Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain</footnote>

<footnote n="2">²Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN/IPSL), Paris, France</footnote>

<footnote n="5">⁵Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada</footnote>

<footnote n="6">⁶Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, Université de Bordeaux/CNRS, Bordeaux, France</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80307, USA</footnote>