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# Climate variability in Haiti and the importance of a national adaptation day

David Noncent

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## To cite this version:

David Noncent. Climate variability in Haiti and the importance of a national adaptation day. 2025. hal-05041035

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# Climate variability in Haiti and the importance of a
national adaptation day

David NONCENT

Climate Change Research Team (ERC2), Quisqueya University, Port-au-Prince, Haiti

## Introduction

Haiti is facing major climatic challenges that are disrupting its environment and economy. Over the last few decades, the country has seen a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature, linked to global climate oscillations such as AMO, NAO, PDO and El Niño (Noncent et al., 2023). Global Climate Models (GCMs) predict a temperature rise of up to 3.3°C by the end of century and a 6% reduction in precipitation by 2030 (Taylor et al., 2015). These changes are exacerbating droughts and floods and damaging agriculture and marine ecosystems. The creation of a Haitian National Day to raise awareness of climate change could strengthen the country's resilience and mobilise appropriate action.

## The difference between climate change and climate variability

Climate change refers to a change in the state or variability of the climate. It is identified by a variability in the properties of the climate that persists over an extended period and that can be identified using statistical tests. Climate change can be caused by natural internal processes or by external forces, such as volcanic eruptions or persistent human actions (IPCC, 2018). It is manifested in global trends such as rising average temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent or severe extreme weather events. Current climate change is mainly caused by emissions of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane) due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and other human activities.

The term "climate change", as used in the work of the IPCC, refers any type of climatic variation over time, whether due to natural factors or human activities. As such, it can refer to past climate changes as well as the current phenomenon of anthropogenic global warming. This change may be due to natural processes intrinsic to the Earth, to external influences or to human activities.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) distinguishes climate change and climate variability. Climate change is attributed to human activities that can alter the composition of the atmosphere, while variability is defined as
attributed to natural causes. Thus, climate variability refers to natural variations in the climate that occur on various time scales, such as annual, decadal or multi-century fluctuations. It refers to fluctuations in the climate that extend beyond one-off weather events, such as storms or heat waves. Unlike these phenomena, climate variability encompasses changes that occur over longer periods (Houghton et al., 2001; IPCC, 2021). It refers to changes in global or regional climate patterns over extended time scales. These variations may be due to natural phenomena such as solar cycles, oceanic oscillations (such as El Niño and La Niña), and volcanic events.

Located in the tropics, Haiti is particularly vulnerable to climatic variations. With a humid tropical climate and distinct seasons, the country is often faced with major fluctuations, making the management of agriculture, water resources and ecosystems particularly complex.

## Impact of climate variability in Haiti

Over the last few decades, the country's climate has undergone significant transformations, notably a reduction in rainfall and a rise in average temperatures. The changes observed in the rainy season and the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events are closely linked to global climate oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (ENSO) (Noncent et al., 2023).

On the basis of Global Climate Models (GCMs), the average temperature increase in the country could reach up to 0.8°C by the 2020s, 1.1°C by 2030, 1.9°C by 2050 and 3.3°C by the end of the century (2081-2100). The GCMs suggest a trend towards reduced precipitation in the mid-2020s (3 to 4% less precipitation on average per year). The 2030s will be up to 6% drier (Taylor et al., 2015). Extreme and variable weather conditions alternate between drought in the wet season (generally December to April) and intense storms and hurricanes in the wet season (generally August to November). The country has therefore experienced radical changes in the climate system, particularly in the seasonality of rainfall and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms, leading to flooding and erosion. These changes are having a drastic impact on Haiti's ecosystems and environmental degradation.

Agriculture, which is a fundamental pillar of the national economy, is particularly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations. Prolonged droughts and intense rainfall reduce agricultural yields, leading to food shortages and price rises that mainly affect the most vulnerable populations (FAO, 2020).

At the same time, climatic variations have a major influence on the availability of water resources. Droughts can lead to depletion of water reserves, while excessive rainfall can cause flooding, jeopardising drinking water supplies and agricultural practices. Efficient management of water resources is therefore crucial to ensuring the sustainability of farming activities and access to drinking water.
Climate change is also having a significant impact on natural ecosystems, threatening biodiversity. Coral reefs, for example, are particularly sensitive to temperature variations, which can lead coral bleaching episodes and a significant reduction in marine biodiversity (Petit, 2008).

Finally, climate variability is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. In Haiti, this trend could lead to massive destruction and exacerbate humanitarian crises, requiring resilience strategies and enhanced emergency response.

To meet these challenges, number of adaptation strategies are needed, such as strengthening the resilience of infrastructures, natural resource management, agricultural diversification and capacity building. These require an integrated approach, combining mitigation and adaptation measures to protect the country's vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

## Importance of a Haitian National Day

It is against this backdrop that the idea of a Haitian National Day dedicated to climate change education and environmental awareness takes on its full meaning. Such a day would offer several advantages.

It would raise awareness among the entire population of climate issues, the specific impacts on Haiti, and the concrete actions to be taken to mitigate these effects.

A national day could encourage communities to take part in clean-up activities, tree planting and other environmental initiatives. This would reinforce the sense of belonging and collective responsibility.

It would highlight the needs in terms of public policy and investment in adaptation to climate change, underlining the importance of increased support for local initiatives.

Such a day would serve as a platform to strengthen partnerships between government, non-governmental organisations, business and citizens, fostering a concerted approach to climate challenges.

## Conclusion

In conclusion, climate variability represents a major challenge for Haiti, with widespread impacts agriculture, water resources, ecosystems and vulnerability to extreme weather events. The creation of a Haitian National Day dedicated to this cause would be an important step towards raising collective awareness and taking concerted action to strengthen the country's resilience.

## References

* IPCC, 2021: *Summary for Policymakers*. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M.,
Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 3-32.

IPCC, 2018: *Global Warming of 1.5°C.An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty* [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]

Houghton, J. T. (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis.

Noncent, D., Sifeddine, A., Emmanuel, E., Cormier, M. H., Briceño-Zuluaga, F. J., Mendez-Millan, M., ... & Sloan, H. (2023). Hydroclimate reconstruction during the last 1000 years inferred from the mineralogical and geochemical composition of a sediment core from Lake-Azuei (Haiti). *The Holocene*, **33**(7), 816-826.

Petit, J., & Prudent, G. (2008). *Climate change and biodiversity in the European overseas territories*. IUCN.

Taylor, M., Douglas, C., Campbell, J. D., Jones, J., Brown, A., & Stephenson, T. S. (2015). Haiti: Historical and Future Climate Changes.

**FAO. (2020).** *The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security in Developing Countries*. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.