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# USA-Chine: cooperation or confrontation?: a case study in analytical history

Bertrand M. Roehner

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Bertrand M. Roehner. USA-Chine: cooperation or confrontation?: a case study in analytical history. Université Pierre et Marie Curie. Abraca Publishing, 214 p., 2017, 978-2-9500181-0-6. hal-04620307

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# USA-Chine: cooperation or confrontation?: a case study in analytical history

Bertrand M. Roehner

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

## To cite this version:

Bertrand M. Roehner. USA-Chine: cooperation or confrontation?: a case study in analytical history.

Université Pierre et Marie Curie. Abraca Publishing, 214 p., 2017, 978-2-9500181-0-6. hal-04620307

HAL Id: hal-04620307

https://hal.science/hal-04620307v1

Submitted on 21 Jun 2024

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Public Domain
USA-CHINA:
COOPERATION OR
CONFRONTATION?

A case study in analytical history

Bertrand M. Roehner

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

ABRACA PUBLISHING
2017

Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics, University of Paris 6
Working Report, 2017
USA-CHINA:
COOPERATION OR
CONFRONTATION?

A case study in analytical history

Bertrand M. Roehner

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

ABRACA PUBLISHING
2017

Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics, University of Paris 6
Working Report, 2017
ABRACA PUBLISHING

Roehner, 26 rue Poliveau, Paris 75005, France
roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr
http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner

First Published 2017. Comments are welcome.

Produced in France

This publication is not copyrighted in the sense that
its content can be used without restriction for non-commercial purposes.

ISBN 978-2-9500181-0-6
EAN 9782950018106
ABRACA PUBLISHING

Roehner, 26 rue Poliveau, Paris 75005, France
roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr
http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner

First Published 2017. Comments are welcome.

Produced in France

This publication is not copyrighted in the sense that
its content can be used without restriction for non-commercial purposes.

ISBN 978-2-9500181-0-6
EAN 9782950018106
"We are at the very beginning of time for the human race. Our responsibility is to do what we can, learn what we can, improve the solutions, and pass them on."

—Richard Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think?
(1988)

There is a strong family resemblance about the misdeeds, and if you have
all the details of a thousand at your finger ends, it is odd if you can't unravel
the thousand and first.

—Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, *The Valley of Fear* (1915)
"We are at the very beginning of time for the human race. Our responsibility is to do what we can, learn what we can, improve the solutions, and pass them on."

—Richard Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think?
(1988)

There is a strong family resemblance about the misdeeds, and if you have
all the details of a thousand at your finger ends, it is odd if you can't unravel
the thousand and first.

—Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, *The Valley of Fear* (1915)
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>
# SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF RECURRENT HISTORICAL EVENTS

## US-PRC: competition or confrontation

*This text is one of the documents which served in the writing of a book (in Chinese) co-authored with Pr. Zengru Di and Pr. Ruiqi Li.*

### Table of contents

#### Preface

* Ch. 1 Methodological introduction: What motivated the attack of September 11, 2001?

* Ch. 2 US-PRC competition for world leadership

* Ch. 3 National activation in China and other countries

* Ch. 4 Silk road vs. containment policy

* Ch. 5 “The Pacific as an American lake”

* Ch. 6 Timeless features of cold wars: past, present, future

* Ch. 7 China-US confrontation: what is to be expected in the coming years 2018–2025?

* Ch. 8 What should be done to advance the scientific analysis of recurrent events?

#### Acronyms

#### References
# SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF RECURRENT HISTORICAL EVENTS

## US-PRC: competition or confrontation

*This text is one of the documents which served in the writing of a book (in Chinese) co-authored with Pr. Zengru Di and Pr. Ruiqi Li.*

### Table of contents

#### Preface

* Ch. 1 Methodological introduction: What motivated the attack of September 11, 2001?

* Ch. 2 US-PRC competition for world leadership

* Ch. 3 National activation in China and other countries

* Ch. 4 Silk road vs. containment policy

* Ch. 5 “The Pacific as an American lake”

* Ch. 6 Timeless features of cold wars: past, present, future

* Ch. 7 China-US confrontation: what is to be expected in the coming years 2018–2025?

* Ch. 8 What should be done to advance the scientific analysis of recurrent events?

#### Acronyms

#### References
# Preface

## A parallel with astronomy

The main motivation for the present study can best be understood by making a parallel with astronomy and astrophysics.

For centuries human groups and civilizations have observed the sky and recorded the positions of the Sun, Moon, planets, comets and stars. Most often this led to sophisticated astrological models. Real science emerged on only two occasions:

* In Greece and the Hellenistic world from Eratosthenes of Cyrene (-276 to -195) to Ptolemy (100 to 170).

* In Western Europe with Tycho Brahe (1546–1601), Johannes Kepler (1571–1630) and Isaac Newton (1643–1727), a development which led to present-day astronomy and astrophysics.

In 1563 Tycho Brahe observed a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, and noticed that the commonly used Ptolemaian tables were inaccurate. This led him to realize that progress in astronomy required systematic, rigorous observation. The so-called “Rudolphine Tables” which are based on his accurate observations were published by Kepler in 1627, 26 years after Tycho’s death<fnref n="1" />. Brahe was a nobleman and courtier who was attracted to astronomical observation purely by personal interest. He was ready to forsake a wealthy position at the Danish court to fulfill his dream. One question which comes to mind is whether there have been similar individuals at the Imperial court in China for instance during the Ming dynasty. More information on this point can be found in the chapter entitled “What is to be done?”

It should be noted that, apart from their work in astronomy Ptolemy, Tycho and even Kepler authored books in astrology. At the beginning of each year Tycho had to present an Almanac to the king of Denmark predicting the influence of the stars on political and economic prospects. This anthropomorphic attitude was quite understandable for astrology was thought to be much more “useful” than astronomy. As a matter of fact, many civilizations, e.g. Chinese, Indian. Maya, Western, developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations.

How does the scientific analysis of historical events proposed in this book parallel

<footnote n="1">¹The name “Rudolphine” is in hommage to Rudolf II, former Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire and main sponsor of this project.</footnote>
# Preface

## A parallel with astronomy

The main motivation for the present study can best be understood by making a parallel with astronomy and astrophysics.

For centuries human groups and civilizations have observed the sky and recorded the positions of the Sun, Moon, planets, comets and stars. Most often this led to sophisticated astrological models. Real science emerged on only two occasions:

* In Greece and the Hellenistic world from Eratosthenes of Cyrene (-276 to -195) to Ptolemy (100 to 170).

* In Western Europe with Tycho Brahe (1546–1601), Johannes Kepler (1571–1630) and Isaac Newton (1643–1727), a development which led to present-day astronomy and astrophysics.

In 1563 Tycho Brahe observed a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, and noticed that the commonly used Ptolemaian tables were inaccurate. This led him to realize that progress in astronomy required systematic, rigorous observation. The so-called “Rudolphine Tables” which are based on his accurate observations were published by Kepler in 1627, 26 years after Tycho’s death<fnref n="1" />. Brahe was a nobleman and courtier who was attracted to astronomical observation purely by personal interest. He was ready to forsake a wealthy position at the Danish court to fulfill his dream. One question which comes to mind is whether there have been similar individuals at the Imperial court in China for instance during the Ming dynasty. More information on this point can be found in the chapter entitled “What is to be done?”

It should be noted that, apart from their work in astronomy Ptolemy, Tycho and even Kepler authored books in astrology. At the beginning of each year Tycho had to present an Almanac to the king of Denmark predicting the influence of the stars on political and economic prospects. This anthropomorphic attitude was quite understandable for astrology was thought to be much more “useful” than astronomy. As a matter of fact, many civilizations, e.g. Chinese, Indian. Maya, Western, developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations.

How does the scientific analysis of historical events proposed in this book parallel

<footnote n="1">¹The name “Rudolphine” is in hommage to Rudolf II, former Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire and main sponsor of this project.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

**Fig. Pref.1a** Respective development of astrology and astronomy. From a historical perspective astrology has been in existence for much longer than astronomy; it was developed in all major civilizations: Chinese, Greek, Maya, Persian. The small picture next to the name of Eratosthenes shows the clever experiment that he had designed and implemented between the cities of Alexandria and Syene (now Aswan some 920km to the south) in order to measure the radius of the Earth (his result was quite correct). It should be noted that in this calculation one must assume that the Sun rays are parallel which rests on the assumption that the Sun is far away. The long suspension which lasted over one millenium was a dark age during which previous knowledge was partly forgotten. Although Christopher Columbus was aware of the measurements made in Greece he misinterpreted the unit of measurement; otherwise he would have known that India was out of reach for his expedition.

the emergence of astronomy and its separation from astrology?

Following the invention of writing, for millennia human societies have recorded historical events. To recount facts rather than the thoughts and beliefs of the author was a first challenge. It seems that with the biographies of their emperors Chinese scholars were among the first to produce factual accounts [references and more details are needed]. In the west, Herodotus (-484 to -425) and Thucydides (-460 to -400) were two early historians. In contrast, when one reads the story of the Great Fire of London in 1666 as told by contemporary English writers one learns more about the Romans, the Bible and the justice of God than about the fire itself.

## The key idea of what we wish to do

Because there can be no science of individual events (they can only be described) a crucial step on the way to scientific analysis is to build sets of *similar events*.

The idea is simple. What conclusion can an astronomer of the 16th century draw by
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

**Fig. Pref.1a** Respective development of astrology and astronomy. From a historical perspective astrology has been in existence for much longer than astronomy; it was developed in all major civilizations: Chinese, Greek, Maya, Persian. The small picture next to the name of Eratosthenes shows the clever experiment that he had designed and implemented between the cities of Alexandria and Syene (now Aswan some 920km to the south) in order to measure the radius of the Earth (his result was quite correct). It should be noted that in this calculation one must assume that the Sun rays are parallel which rests on the assumption that the Sun is far away. The long suspension which lasted over one millenium was a dark age during which previous knowledge was partly forgotten. Although Christopher Columbus was aware of the measurements made in Greece he misinterpreted the unit of measurement; otherwise he would have known that India was out of reach for his expedition.

the emergence of astronomy and its separation from astrology?

Following the invention of writing, for millennia human societies have recorded historical events. To recount facts rather than the thoughts and beliefs of the author was a first challenge. It seems that with the biographies of their emperors Chinese scholars were among the first to produce factual accounts [references and more details are needed]. In the west, Herodotus (-484 to -425) and Thucydides (-460 to -400) were two early historians. In contrast, when one reads the story of the Great Fire of London in 1666 as told by contemporary English writers one learns more about the Romans, the Bible and the justice of God than about the fire itself.

## The key idea of what we wish to do

Because there can be no science of individual events (they can only be described) a crucial step on the way to scientific analysis is to build sets of *similar events*.

The idea is simple. What conclusion can an astronomer of the 16th century draw by
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.1b** **Two measurement devices used by Tycho Brahe.** On the left a wall quadrant in the Uraniborg observatory on the island of Hven (or Ven) located between Denmark and the southern Swedish province of Scania. On the right, Tycho's oversized sextant. *Source: Wikipedia article (in French) about Tycho Brahe.*</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.1c** **Switching to a scientific approach.** The transition from astrology to astronomy took place in Ancient Greece and a second time in western Europe in the 16th century. In the transition to a scientific conception of social phenomena that we propose the focus on sets of similar events is fundamental. Although already emphasized by Vilfredo Pareto (1916) and by the French “Ecole des Annales” the importance of this step is still not well recognized; one may even say that it is less recognized in 2016 than it was back in 1916.</figcaption></figure>

comparing the orbits of Venus and of comets? Basically none, because these objects
are too different and the data for the comets too imprecise to be compared in an
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.1b** **Two measurement devices used by Tycho Brahe.** On the left a wall quadrant in the Uraniborg observatory on the island of Hven (or Ven) located between Denmark and the southern Swedish province of Scania. On the right, Tycho's oversized sextant. Source: Wikipedia article (in French) about Tycho Brahe.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.1c** **Switching to a scientific approach.** The transition from astrology to astronomy took place in Ancient Greece and a second time in western Europe in the 16th century. In the transition to a scientific conception of social phenomena that we propose the focus on sets of similar events is fundamental. Although already emphasized by Vilfredo Pareto (1916) and by the French “Ecole des Annales” the importance of this step is still not well recognized; one may even say that it is less recognized in 2016 than it was back in 1916.</figcaption></figure>

comparing the orbits of Venus and of comets? Basically none, because these objects
are too different and the data for the comets too imprecise to be compared in an
**A box intended for persons who know OOP**

(Can be safely skipped by others!)

OOP is “Object Oriented Programming”. What is the gist of OOP? The key-step is to define a *class* of objects each of which has certain characteristics and certain pre-defined functions. Once a class has been defined, the programming language (say PHP or any other) allows you to spawn as many instances of the class as you like. Each of these realizations is an independent object with its own characteristics and functions, yet in some sense related to the class through which it was generated.

What we wish to do is the reverse procedure. We have collected a number of realizations which, for some good (or bad) reasons, we think have been generated by the same class (also called core-mechanism elsewhere in this book). Starting from this diverse collection of instances, what we want to do is to find out the common core-mechanism through which they can be generated.

If successful, this operation will bring a measure of order where there was none. Actually, this classification step is an essential pre-requirement in any science.

**A box intended for persons who think they know dogs**

(Can be safely skipped by others!)

Dogs can be very different in size, color, shape, behavior (think of dogs which are especially good at sniffing drugs). Yet, they are all called dogs for a very simple reason which is the fact that they can mate with one another. As a matter of fact, it is this requirement which, despite their diversity, defines them as a single species.

Now imagine that you have a collection of animals which comprises not only dogs but also other species: wolfs (actually wolfs are wild dogs), raccoons, rabbits, hyenas, fennecs and others. Your task is to separate the dogs from the other animals. That will not be an easy task. If you take size or color as your main criterions you will surely fail. Obviously the mating criterion which should in principle give a clear answer is not easy to implement. Ultimately, the best procedure would be to perform a DNA analysis for each animal. This procedure will be costly and will take time but it is the only way to get clear answers

This example illustrates the kind of quandary in which one is when one tries to find out which historical events are related and which are not. As explained in the OOP box, the challenge is to find a mechanism through which all events can be generated.

effective way. However, if the same astronomer compares the orbits of Venus and Mars, he may well be led to the discovery of what we now know as “Kepler’s laws”.

It works the same way in the social sciences. In order to be able to draw any conclusion, one must compare events which are sharply defined and sufficiently similar.

This is the idea which underpins the whole book. That is also why we hope that
**A box intended for persons who know OOP**

(Can be safely skipped by others!)

OOP is “Object Oriented Programming”. What is the gist of OOP? The key-step is to define a *class* of objects each of which has certain characteristics and certain pre-defined functions. Once a class has been defined, the programming language (say PHP or any other) allows you to spawn as many instances of the class as you like. Each of these realizations is an independent object with its own characteristics and functions, yet in some sense related to the class through which it was generated.

What we wish to do is the reverse procedure. We have collected a number of realizations which, for some good (or bad) reasons, we think have been generated by the same class (also called core-mechanism elsewhere in this book). Starting from this diverse collection of instances, what we want to do is to find out the common core-mechanism through which they can be generated.

If successful, this operation will bring a measure of order where there was none. Actually, this classification step is an essential pre-requirement in any science.

**A box intended for persons who think they know dogs**

(Can be safely skipped by others!)

Dogs can be very different in size, color, shape, behavior (think of dogs which are especially good at sniffing drugs). Yet, they are all called dogs for a very simple reason which is the fact that they can mate with one another. As a matter of fact, it is this requirement which, despite their diversity, defines them as a single species.

Now imagine that you have a collection of animals which comprises not only dogs but also other species: wolfs (actually wolfs are wild dogs), raccoons, rabbits, hyenas, fennecs and others. Your task is to separate the dogs from the other animals. That will not be an easy task. If you take size or color as your main criterions you will surely fail. Obviously the mating criterion which should in principle give a clear answer is not easy to implement. Ultimately, the best procedure would be to perform a DNA analysis for each animal. This procedure will be costly and will take time but it is the only way to get clear answers

This example illustrates the kind of quandary in which one is when one tries to find out which historical events are related and which are not. As explained in the OOP box, the challenge is to find a mechanism through which all events can be generated.

effective way. However, if the same astronomer compares the orbits of Venus and Mars, he may well be led to the discovery of what we now know as “Kepler’s laws”.

It works the same way in the social sciences. In order to be able to draw any conclusion, one must compare events which are sharply defined and sufficiently similar.

This is the idea which underpins the whole book. That is also why we hope that
astronomers and astrophysicists may view it with some interest.

## Analysis and prediction based on the categorization methodology

The method described above which is based on laws (like Kepler's laws) works well when the phenomenon can be described through a small number of parameters. As a particularly simple example, for a pendulum one needs only to measure its length to be able to predict its period. However, in other fields than physics the variability and number of parameters of the phenomena is often too high to make predictions based on laws. In such cases the law-based method must be enlarged into what we will call a categorization (or ascription) method. Let us illustrate this generalization through three examples.

* The evolution of a star depends upon several parameters, for instance its mass, age and color. Based on these parameters astrophysicists have defined standardized types. For each type its timeline is well defined. Therefore, when one wishes to predict the evolution of a new star one needs only to determine its type.

* The same method is used in medicine. Based on a number of observed symptoms, a doctor will decide that a case is influenza, tuberculosis or lung cancer. Thus, a medical diagnosis is just a special case of categorization. Here too, categorization entails prediction concerning the evolution of the disease.

* Categorization is also used in physics. Suppose one wants to predict how air flows around an airfoil. Getting such a prediction from first principles (that is to say by solving the Navier-Stokes equations of hydrodynamics) would be a very difficult problem. On the contrary, through categorization the problem can be solved rather easily. According to their shape, airfoils are ascribed to different families and in addition in each family there is a sub-classification based on an index number which describes a parameter, for instance the curvature. As examples of such families one can mention the following: NACA 0012, Eppler E 193, Wortman FX 75-141. So, in order to make a prediction for a new airfoil one needs only to determine to which family it belongs and what is its index. Of course, for this method to work, all standard airfoils must have been tested in wind tunnel experiments. As there are hundreds of different shapes this represents an extensive research program.

For historical events the variability is even higher than for stars, diseases or airfoils. In addition the classification work has hardly started. That is why at present time the categorization method can be used only in a fairly rudimentary way. For further progress the key is to identify and define many families of similar events. In medicine the classification of diseases took centuries. Currently, the “International Classification of Diseases” (ICD-10) comprises thousands of classes. This suggests that one needs to be patient but also that this classification work must be pushed forward as vigorously as possible.
astronomers and astrophysicists may view it with some interest.

## Analysis and prediction based on the categorization methodology

The method described above which is based on laws (like Kepler's laws) works well when the phenomenon can be described through a small number of parameters. As a particularly simple example, for a pendulum one needs only to measure its length to be able to predict its period. However, in other fields than physics the variability and number of parameters of the phenomena is often too high to make predictions based on laws. In such cases the law-based method must be enlarged into what we will call a categorization (or ascription) method. Let us illustrate this generalization through three examples.

* The evolution of a star depends upon several parameters, for instance its mass, age and color. Based on these parameters astrophysicists have defined standardized types. For each type its timeline is well defined. Therefore, when one wishes to predict the evolution of a new star one needs only to determine its type.

* The same method is used in medicine. Based on a number of observed symptoms, a doctor will decide that a case is influenza, tuberculosis or lung cancer. Thus, a medical diagnosis is just a special case of categorization. Here too, categorization entails prediction concerning the evolution of the disease.

* Categorization is also used in physics. Suppose one wants to predict how air flows around an airfoil. Getting such a prediction from first principles (that is to say by solving the Navier-Stokes equations of hydrodynamics) would be a very difficult problem. On the contrary, through categorization the problem can be solved rather easily. According to their shape, airfoils are ascribed to different families and in addition in each family there is a sub-classification based on an index number which describes a parameter, for instance the curvature. As examples of such families one can mention the following: NACA 0012, Eppler E 193, Wortman FX 75-141. So, in order to make a prediction for a new airfoil one needs only to determine to which family it belongs and what is its index. Of course, for this method to work, all standard airfoils must have been tested in wind tunnel experiments. As there are hundreds of different shapes this represents an extensive research program.

For historical events the variability is even higher than for stars, diseases or airfoils. In addition the classification work has hardly started. That is why at present time the categorization method can be used only in a fairly rudimentary way. For further progress the key is to identify and define many families of similar events. In medicine the classification of diseases took centuries. Currently, the “International Classification of Diseases” (ICD-10) comprises thousands of classes. This suggests that one needs to be patient but also that this classification work must be pushed forward as vigorously as possible.
## A tortuous road

The road which led to the publication of the present book in Chinese was fairly long and tortuous. A first draft was written in French in 1993. An English version was published by "Harvard University Press" in 2002, and finally this version destined to the Chinese public is a completely new book largely based on examples taken from Chinese history. What it has in common with the two previous publications is the methodology and the main concepts.

The story which led from the French draft to the present book may be of more than anecdotal interest for it illustrates the fact that it is not easy to publish something new, and, once it has been published, to spread the message to other scholars.

Although there are many publishers in western countries it is not easy to break the barriers of fashion and one-track thinking. Actually, finding a publisher turned out to be easier in China than in France.

Back in 1993 the French draft was proposed to several publishers. Invariably it was brushed aside, most often on the ground that it is a topic "which does not square with our publication program". How can a new approach conform to a pre-existing program? In the hope that British or American publishers would be more open, the French draft was translated into English with the help of co-author Tony Syme who was at that time teaching at Oxford University. However, when the English draft was proposed to US and British publishers the same answers started to pour in. Eventually, in the fall of 1998, in an attempt to win support from distinguished American colleagues, one of the co-authors (BR) decided to visit the United States. Thanks to an invitation from Prof. Samuel Williamson he could spend two months at Harvard and from there he also visited several other universities in New York State, Arizona, California, Illinois, Michigan and West Virginia. By chance a miracle happened. After being invited to give a talk at the "Harvard Department of Sociology" (on 29 September 1998) by Prof. Stanley Lieberson he had the opportunity to have lunch with Michael Aronson of "Harvard University Press". This started a sequence of events which would lead four years later to the publication of "Pattern and Repertoire in History". In this outcome one should also mention the support of Prof. Charles Tilly who was one of the pre-publication reviewers and also suggested the book's title.

However, after the publication of the book, between 2002 and 2017, all attempts to interest historians in this new methodology misfired. In the following lines we try to understand why.

## The need of well targeted comparisons

With the benefit of hindsight the reason appears fairly clearly. The approach advo-
## A tortuous road

The road which led to the publication of the present book in Chinese was fairly long and tortuous. A first draft was written in French in 1993. An English version was published by "Harvard University Press" in 2002, and finally this version destined to the Chinese public is a completely new book largely based on examples taken from Chinese history. What it has in common with the two previous publications is the methodology and the main concepts.

The story which led from the French draft to the present book may be of more than anecdotal interest for it illustrates the fact that it is not easy to publish something new, and, once it has been published, to spread the message to other scholars.

Although there are many publishers in western countries it is not easy to break the barriers of fashion and one-track thinking. Actually, finding a publisher turned out to be easier in China than in France.

Back in 1993 the French draft was proposed to several publishers. Invariably it was brushed aside, most often on the ground that it is a topic "which does not square with our publication program". How can a new approach conform to a pre-existing program? In the hope that British or American publishers would be more open, the French draft was translated into English with the help of co-author Tony Syme who was at that time teaching at Oxford University. However, when the English draft was proposed to US and British publishers the same answers started to pour in. Eventually, in the fall of 1998, in an attempt to win support from distinguished American colleagues, one of the co-authors (BR) decided to visit the United States. Thanks to an invitation from Prof. Samuel Williamson he could spend two months at Harvard and from there he also visited several other universities in New York State, Arizona, California, Illinois, Michigan and West Virginia. By chance a miracle happened. After being invited to give a talk at the "Harvard Department of Sociology" (on 29 September 1998) by Prof. Stanley Lieberson he had the opportunity to have lunch with Michael Aronson of "Harvard University Press". This started a sequence of events which would lead four years later to the publication of "Pattern and Repertoire in History". In this outcome one should also mention the support of Prof. Charles Tilly who was one of the pre-publication reviewers and also suggested the book's title.

However, after the publication of the book, between 2002 and 2017, all attempts to interest historians in this new methodology misfired. In the following lines we try to understand why.

## The need of well targeted comparisons

With the benefit of hindsight the reason appears fairly clearly. The approach advo-
cated in the book relies on making appropriate comparisons. This methodology was introduced by sociologist Emile Durkheim (1858–1917) and it is described in the book shown below.

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref. 2** *Two books, one project.* Durkheim's book was published in 1894. Entitled "Pattern and Repertoire in History" the book on the right was published in 2002. The English translation of Durkheim's book is: "Rules of sociological method". Despite being more than a century apart, the two books have basically the same purpose, namely to transform sociology and history into testable sciences. Durkheim's book as well as his subsequent study of the phenomenon of suicide (1897) explain how, by comparing "natural experiments", one can implement the methodology of experimental physics in fields in which direct experimentation is impossible. In "Pattern and Repertoire in History" the authors apply Durkheim's approach to the study of historical events.

*Source: The two books are freely available on line.*</figcaption></figure>

However, very few historians have been willing to use the comparative approach advocated by Durkheim. One exception is Marc Bloch (1886–1944). In 1924 he published a study which was later translated into English under the title "The royal touch". It provides an excellent example of what we mean by "comparison of events which are sharply defined and sufficiently similar". The royal touch consists in the fact that in France and England the king was (allegedly) able to heal some diseases just by touching sick people. This is certainly a well defined phenomenon. Unfortunately, this kind of comparative research remained fairly unique and isolated. In a somewhat loose form comparative history remained popular in France during the 1950s and 1960s mainly thanks to the "Ecole des Annales" which was founded by Marc Bloch. Then, in the 1970s, both in Europe and in the United States, historical research turned back to the study of single cases: one country, one time interval, one phenomenon. For instance: "A study of unemployment in Germany, 1925-1935". On such a topic one can tell a story but one cannot do any science; whether or not the study comprises an econometric model, it will remain only a description. Science needs testable predictions and the later require *several instances of a given effect*.

**An example of a failed attempt**
cated in the book relies on making appropriate comparisons. This methodology was introduced by sociologist Emile Durkheim (1858–1917) and it is described in the book shown below.

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref. 2** *Two books, one project.* Durkheim’s book was published in 1894. Entitled “Pattern and Repertoire in History” the book on the right was published in 2002. The English translation of Durkheim’s book is: “Rules of sociological method”. Despite being more than a century apart, the two books have basically the same purpose, namely to transform sociology and history into testable sciences. Durkheim’s book as well as his subsequent study of the phenomenon of suicide (1897) explain how, by comparing “natural experiments”, one can implement the methodology of experimental physics in fields in which direct experimentation is impossible. In “Pattern and Repertoire in History” the authors apply Durkheim’s approach to the study of historical events.

*Source: The two books are freely available on line.*</figcaption></figure>

However, very few historians have been willing to use the comparative approach advocated by Durkheim. One exception is Marc Bloch (1886–1944). In 1924 he published a study which was later translated into English under the title “The royal touch”. It provides an excellent example of what we mean by “comparison of events which are sharply defined and sufficiently similar”. The royal touch consists in the fact that in France and England the king was (allegedly) able to heal some diseases just by touching sick people. This is certainly a well defined phenomenon. Unfortunately, this kind of comparative research remained fairly unique and isolated. In a somewhat loose form comparative history remained popular in France during the 1950s and 1960s mainly thanks to the “Ecole des Annales” which was founded by Marc Bloch. Then, in the 1970s, both in Europe and in the United States, historical research turned back to the study of single cases: one country, one time interval, one phenomenon. For instance: “A study of unemployment in Germany, 1925-1935”. On such a topic one can tell a story but one cannot do any science; whether or not the study comprises an econometric model, it will remain only a description. Science needs testable predictions and the later require *several instances of a given effect*.

**An example of a failed attempt**
The same year as Durkheim’s book, appeared a study (Lacombe 1894) whose purpose was to make history into a science. However, instead of following Durkheim’s rule stating that social phenomena should be studied like “things”, that is to say as if they were natural phenomena, the author uses an anthropocentric approach entirely based on the psychology of the individual man. In other words, he was trying to explain our societies by relying on the human brain, a system of much greater complexity.

**The method of experimental physics and observational astrophysics**

The methodology of experimental physics is based on comparative analysis. For instance, as a first step one measures the period of a pendulum. As a second step one repeats the observation to check if the phenomenon is reproducible. Clearly this is unnecessary for a pendulum but may be important for a system that is more chaotic. Then, one changes one parameter, say the length of the pendulum, to see how the period will be affected. These are exactly the steps that we wish to implement in studying social phenomena and historical events.

Let us give an example. As a first step one observes the suicide rate of unmarried young adults in France in the year 2000. Secondly, by comparing the rates in 2000 with those in 1999 and 2001 one can check whether the phenomenon is reproducible. Indeed, in successive years the rates are the same within a margin of ±5%. Then, one changes a parameter, say the number of family links. This leads to the observation that married persons (without children) have suicide rates which are 2 or 3 times lower than those of unmarried persons of same age. Moreover, married persons with young children have suicide rates which are even lower than those of childless married couples. In other words, the suicide rate decreases with the number of family links. This is true not only in France but in fact in all countries, including China, for which reliable data are available (Richmond et al. 2016).

Admittedly, this was an example in sociology rather than in history, although in our opinion the two fields should be seen in a unified way. A more historical illustration is provided by separatist disturbances. The analysis of a broad set of cases conducted in Roehner (1997, 2002) shows that the level of separatist violence in a region $\alpha$ of a country $A$ is mainly determined by two parameters: (i) the degree of isolation of $\alpha$ with respect to $A$. For instance, usually $\alpha$ is in a remote corner of $A$. (ii) the degree of autonomy enjoyed by $\alpha$ before it became part of $A$ and how well this situation was accepted in past centuries. The first parameter is geographical whereas the second is historical. In other words, one is here in the same situation as in the case of the pendulum. In Roehner (1997) about 40 cases were analyzed in terms of these parameters. Almost all cases were from the 20th century. By including cases belonging to more distant past centuries (provided one can find data
The same year as Durkheim’s book, appeared a study (Lacombe 1894) whose purpose was to make history into a science. However, instead of following Durkheim’s rule stating that social phenomena should be studied like “things”, that is to say as if they were natural phenomena, the author uses an anthropocentric approach entirely based on the psychology of the individual man. In other words, he was trying to explain our societies by relying on the human brain, a system of much greater complexity.

**The method of experimental physics and observational astrophysics**

The methodology of experimental physics is based on comparative analysis. For instance, as a first step one measures the period of a pendulum. As a second step one repeats the observation to check if the phenomenon is reproducible. Clearly this is unnecessary for a pendulum but may be important for a system that is more chaotic. Then, one changes one parameter, say the length of the pendulum, to see how the period will be affected. These are exactly the steps that we wish to implement in studying social phenomena and historical events.

Let us give an example. As a first step one observes the suicide rate of unmarried young adults in France in the year 2000. Secondly, by comparing the rates in 2000 with those in 1999 and 2001 one can check whether the phenomenon is reproducible. Indeed, in successive years the rates are the same within a margin of ±5%. Then, one changes a parameter, say the number of family links. This leads to the observation that married persons (without children) have suicide rates which are 2 or 3 times lower than those of unmarried persons of same age. Moreover, married persons with young children have suicide rates which are even lower than those of childless married couples. In other words, the suicide rate decreases with the number of family links. This is true not only in France but in fact in all countries, including China, for which reliable data are available (Richmond et al. 2016).

Admittedly, this was an example in sociology rather than in history, although in our opinion the two fields should be seen in a unified way. A more historical illustration is provided by separatist disturbances. The analysis of a broad set of cases conducted in Roehner (1997, 2002) shows that the level of separatist violence in a region $\alpha$ of a country $A$ is mainly determined by two parameters: (i) the degree of isolation of $\alpha$ with respect to $A$. For instance, usually $\alpha$ is in a remote corner of $A$. (ii) the degree of autonomy enjoyed by $\alpha$ before it became part of $A$ and how well this situation was accepted in past centuries. The first parameter is geographical whereas the second is historical. In other words, one is here in the same situation as in the case of the pendulum. In Roehner (1997) about 40 cases were analyzed in terms of these parameters. Almost all cases were from the 20th century. By including cases belonging to more distant past centuries (provided one can find data
sources) it should be possible to double or triple the number of cases. This is also what astrophysicists are doing when a more powerful telescope allows them to watch more distant stars; as one knows, farther away means that the stars will be seen as they were earlier in the past.

For the two phenomena that we have just mentioned the variability was small and the sample of documented events was large. These are favorable circumstances which may be fairly rare. In a general way data availability will be the main limiting factor. However, such practical obstacles do not call into question the methodology itself. Even when less cases are available, the categorization method provides a good way to introduce order and patterns where there had been none. Then, in the course of time this classification can be made sharper. Similarly, ever since its introduction at the beginning of the 20th century the “International Classification of Diseases” has undergone a great development.

## Manifesto for viewing the world in comparative perspective

The following example about managing big cities suggests that in human affairs making comparisons does not come naturally. It is easier to remain focused on the little world in which one lives than to look outside. However, this may be less true in China. For instance, in Chinese academia there is a time-honored tradition of taking inspiration from western countries. Although interrupted from 1949 to 1975, this tradition was quickly resumed in subsequent years and it remains well alive up to present time (2017) even though, in a number of fields, China was able to take the lead.

## How to manage big cities

All large cities are confronted to similar problems: cars versus public transportation, pollution, homeless people sleeping in the streets, selective waste sorting, and many others. Some cities are able to solve these problems fairly well whereas others are overwhelmed by them.

However, for a city which wishes to learn how to do the solution seems easy. It should send a delegation to study the management of successful cities and then implement these methods in their own city. To our best knowledge this is *not* often done. This suggests that to adopt a comparative standpoint is not something natural. Actually, a close examination of the solutions that worked elsewhere should be mandatory. At least such a comparative study would give a clear understanding of the means that do work even if putting them into effect may, for a variety of reasons, not be easy.

## Banking on the time-honored Chinese tradition of careful observation

Our experience of the past 25 years convinced us that the approach proposed in
sources) it should be possible to double or triple the number of cases. This is also what astrophysicists are doing when a more powerful telescope allows them to watch more distant stars; as one knows, farther away means that the stars will be seen as they were earlier in the past.

For the two phenomena that we have just mentioned the variability was small and the sample of documented events was large. These are favorable circumstances which may be fairly rare. In a general way data availability will be the main limiting factor. However, such practical obstacles do not call into question the methodology itself. Even when less cases are available, the categorization method provides a good way to introduce order and patterns where there had been none. Then, in the course of time this classification can be made sharper. Similarly, ever since its introduction at the beginning of the 20th century the “International Classification of Diseases” has undergone a great development.

## Manifesto for viewing the world in comparative perspective

The following example about managing big cities suggests that in human affairs making comparisons does not come naturally. It is easier to remain focused on the little world in which one lives than to look outside. However, this may be less true in China. For instance, in Chinese academia there is a time-honored tradition of taking inspiration from western countries. Although interrupted from 1949 to 1975, this tradition was quickly resumed in subsequent years and it remains well alive up to present time (2017) even though, in a number of fields, China was able to take the lead.

## How to manage big cities

All large cities are confronted to similar problems: cars versus public transportation, pollution, homeless people sleeping in the streets, selective waste sorting, and many others. Some cities are able to solve these problems fairly well whereas others are overwhelmed by them.

However, for a city which wishes to learn how to do the solution seems easy. It should send a delegation to study the management of successful cities and then implement these methods in their own city. To our best knowledge this is *not* often done. This suggests that to adopt a comparative standpoint is not something natural. Actually, a close examination of the solutions that worked elsewhere should be mandatory. At least such a comparative study would give a clear understanding of the means that do work even if putting them into effect may, for a variety of reasons, not be easy.

## Banking on the time-honored Chinese tradition of careful observation

Our experience of the past 25 years convinced us that the approach proposed in
this book will appeal foremost to persons who take pleasure in making detailed and
well focused observations. This is more a question of turn of mind than one of
professional education.

The effective cures developed by traditional Chinese medicine show that there is in
China a custom of skillful and careful observation. Why do we put an emphasis on
observation? For the obvious reason that without Brahe's careful observations there
would have been no Kepler's laws and therefore no break-through by Newton. With
respect to traditional medicine one can observe that the first scientific Nobel prize<fnref n="2" />
attributed to research done in China relied partly on the traditional descriptions of
the health effects of various compounds. Conducted in the early 1970s, this research
relied on a symbiosis of modern experimental observation and extensive knowledge
accumulated by traditional medicine.

It is true that traditional medicine is still promoted and practiced nowadays but in
academic circles the mood is more to follow the trends set by highly regarded Amer-
ican universities and western journals. It might seem that this is in line with the spirit
of the “New Culture Movement” of the 1910s and 1920s. However, this movement
was fairly selective in what it wanted to borrow from abroad. From introducing “Ver-
nacular Written Chinese” (also called “Modern Written Chinese”) in replacement of
“Classical Chinese” which had become outdated and too rigid, to greater emphasis
on science, to women’s liberation the efforts and achievements of this movement
are impressive; at the same time its association with the “May 4, 1919” and “May
30, 1925” movements which had an anti-imperialist perspective made it suspicious
of the real intentions of western countries toward China. The “New Culture Move-
ment” is illustrated in the figure below by two persons who took an active part in it
while in their 20s.

Coming back to our question, developing analytical history will require the careful
and rigorous handling of a vast amount of historical data and it seems that in China
there is a time-honored tradition for doing that. Like “Sleeping beauty” it may just
be waiting for a revival.

That is why we are convinced that, in contrast with western countries but faithful to
its own tradition, China will provide a fertile soil where the present approach will
thrive and bear fruits.

**The present book and beyond**

In this book we will use the comparative methodology in a fairly loose way in the
sense that we will not try to set up exhaustive lists of similar events. Often we will

<footnote n="2">²The physicists Tsung Dao Lee and Chen Ning Franklin Yang were still Chinese citizens when they were awarded the Nobel prize in 1957, but although they had been educated in China their research work (including their doctoral research) had been done in the US.</footnote>
this book will appeal foremost to persons who take pleasure in making detailed and
well focused observations. This is more a question of turn of mind than one of
professional education.

The effective cures developed by traditional Chinese medicine show that there is in
China a custom of skillful and careful observation. Why do we put an emphasis on
observation? For the obvious reason that without Brahe's careful observations there
would have been no Kepler's laws and therefore no break-through by Newton. With
respect to traditional medicine one can observe that the first scientific Nobel prize<fnref n="2" />
attributed to research done in China relied partly on the traditional descriptions of
the health effects of various compounds. Conducted in the early 1970s, this research
relied on a symbiosis of modern experimental observation and extensive knowledge
accumulated by traditional medicine.

It is true that traditional medicine is still promoted and practiced nowadays but in
academic circles the mood is more to follow the trends set by highly regarded Amer-
ican universities and western journals. It might seem that this is in line with the spirit
of the “New Culture Movement” of the 1910s and 1920s. However, this movement
was fairly selective in what it wanted to borrow from abroad. From introducing “Ver-
nacular Written Chinese” (also called “Modern Written Chinese”) in replacement of
“Classical Chinese” which had become outdated and too rigid, to greater emphasis
on science, to women’s liberation the efforts and achievements of this movement
are impressive; at the same time its association with the “May 4, 1919” and “May
30, 1925” movements which had an anti-imperialist perspective made it suspicious
of the real intentions of western countries toward China. The “New Culture Move-
ment” is illustrated in the figure below by two persons who took an active part in it
while in their 20s.

Coming back to our question, developing analytical history will require the careful
and rigorous handling of a vast amount of historical data and it seems that in China
there is a time-honored tradition for doing that. Like “Sleeping beauty” it may just
be waiting for a revival.

That is why we are convinced that, in contrast with western countries but faithful to
its own tradition, China will provide a fertile soil where the present approach will
thrive and bear fruits.

**The present book and beyond**

In this book we will use the comparative methodology in a fairly loose way in the
sense that we will not try to set up exhaustive lists of similar events. Often we will

<footnote n="2">²The physicists Tsung Dao Lee and Chen Ning Franklin Yang were still Chinese citizens when they were awarded the Nobel prize in 1957, but although they had been educated in China their research work (including their doctoral research) had been done in the US.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.3** Toward a revival of the “New Culture Movement” ? Ms. Xiang Jingyu (1895 - 1 May 1928, executed by KMT), left, and Ms. Cai Chang (1900–1990), center, were early members of the “New People’s Study Society”, founded by Mao Zedong in Hunan in April 1918. This society was itself one of the components in the “New Culture Movement” which promoted a selective adoption of some western cultural ways. Their lives attest that getting wealthier which is a key objective in the west was definitely not one of their goals. Instead, they put themselves at the service of the people. Will this spirit of the “New Culture Movement” experience a revival as suggested by the panel on the right which is the cover of the “Sleeping beauty” story?

Sources: Various Internet websites</figcaption></figure>

limit ourselves to only two or three cases; nevertheless this will give the “flavor” of
the phenomenon under consideration.

Our main objective is to make the book interesting and easy to read. We would like to convey to readers the satisfaction and exhilaration experienced when one realizes that an episode which has just made headlines in the news is in fact modeled on a well-known pattern defined by prior forerunners. This awareness is important because it is the first step in predicting how the episode will likely unfold.

Readers who would like more systematic investigations in which one tries to set up fairly large samples of cases can find such studies in Roehner (1997a,b).

Comparative history in China

We have emphasized that in the west, apart from isolated historians like Marc Bloch, very few historians have tried the comparative approach. Before closing this preface one must of course ask “What about comparative history in China?” In a sense, Karl Marx’s philosophy should have been a catalyst. Through his books he appears mostly as a philosopher and economist, but in many of the 400 articles that he wrote for the “New York Daily Tribune” he draws parallels between similar events which had occurred in different places. In short, he had certainly the turn of mind of a comparativist. His book on the coup of the 18th Brumaire (Marx 1852) goes in the same direction. Did this aspect of his work have an imprint on some Chinese historians? We do not know.

There is a well known Chinese historian, Ray Huang, whose approach is said to be bordering on comparatism. One can be sure that Huang was not influenced by Marx for he was in fact on the Nationalist side before emigrating to the United States in the wake of the Communist victory. One is tempted to draw a parallel between
<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. Pref.3** Toward a revival of the “New Culture Movement” ? Ms. Xiang Jingyu (1895 - 1 May 1928, executed by KMT), left, and Ms. Cai Chang (1900–1990), center, were early members of the “New People’s Study Society”, founded by Mao Zedong in Hunan in April 1918. This society was itself one of the components in the “New Culture Movement” which promoted a selective adoption of some western cultural ways. Their lives attest that getting wealthier which is a key objective in the west was definitely not one of their goals. Instead, they put themselves at the service of the people. Will this spirit of the “New Culture Movement” experience a revival as suggested by the panel on the right which is the cover of the “Sleeping beauty” story?

Sources: Various Internet websites</figcaption></figure>

limit ourselves to only two or three cases; nevertheless this will give the “flavor” of
the phenomenon under consideration.

Our main objective is to make the book interesting and easy to read. We would like to convey to readers the satisfaction and exhilaration experienced when one realizes that an episode which has just made headlines in the news is in fact modeled on a well-known pattern defined by prior forerunners. This awareness is important because it is the first step in predicting how the episode will likely unfold.

Readers who would like more systematic investigations in which one tries to set up fairly large samples of cases can find such studies in Roehner (1997a,b).

**Comparative history in China**

We have emphasized that in the west, apart from isolated historians like Marc Bloch, very few historians have tried the comparative approach. Before closing this preface one must of course ask “What about comparative history in China?” In a sense, Karl Marx’s philosophy should have been a catalyst. Through his books he appears mostly as a philosopher and economist, but in many of the 400 articles that he wrote for the “New York Daily Tribune” he draws parallels between similar events which had occurred in different places. In short, he had certainly the turn of mind of a comparativist. His book on the coup of the 18th Brumaire (Marx 1852) goes in the same direction. Did this aspect of his work have an imprint on some Chinese historians? We do not know.

There is a well known Chinese historian, Ray Huang, whose approach is said to be bordering on comparatism. One can be sure that Huang was not influenced by Marx for he was in fact on the Nationalist side before emigrating to the United States in the wake of the Communist victory. One is tempted to draw a parallel between
Huang and the French historian Fernand Braudel for both try to look at historical events from a distance and to focus on the main processes. In other words, they both *assume* that there are mechanisms which have a broad validity. Huang shows how such mechanisms have worked out in China but he does not attempt to show that they were also at work in other places. In short, Braudel (1967) and Huang (1988) proposed a conceptual framework that needs to be substantiated and tested through upcoming comparative studies.

Needless to say, if there are currently comparative historians in mainland China we would be happy to know them and also possibly to meet them. Any information which would help us to get in touch would be greatly valued. Many thanks in advance.

Finally, before closing this Preface, it may be appropriate to discuss the distinction between normative and factual history.

# Official and normative history versus factual history

## Positive versus normative economics

Economists commonly distinguish positive (also sometimes called factual) economics which describes “what is” that is to say bare facts from normative economics which explains “what ought to be”.

* An example of a positive statement is as follows. “In 2010 income inequality was higher in the United States than in France”.

* An example of a normative economic statement is as follows: “The price of milk should be three euro a liter to give dairy farmers a higher living standard”.

However the distinction between positive and normative statements is not always straightforward. The main reason is because, apart from openly acknowledged preferences, there are also inclinations that are accepted implicitly. For instance, it is a commonly accepted belief (except possibly by some ultra neoliberal economists) that high income inequality is less desirable than moderate inequality. This would make our previous example of a factual statement also partly normative. The question becomes even more involved when one observes that inequality can be measured in various ways (e.g. by the share of total income received by the top 1% or by the Gini coefficient). In other words, the same situation may be viewed differently when assessed through different metrics.

However, it seems clear that no matter how difficult it may be, one should always try to separate factual from normative facets. Not to do that can only lead to confusion and bias.
Huang and the French historian Fernand Braudel for both try to look at historical events from a distance and to focus on the main processes. In other words, they both *assume* that there are mechanisms which have a broad validity. Huang shows how such mechanisms have worked out in China but he does not attempt to show that they were also at work in other places. In short, Braudel (1967) and Huang (1988) proposed a conceptual framework that needs to be substantiated and tested through upcoming comparative studies.

Needless to say, if there are currently comparative historians in mainland China we would be happy to know them and also possibly to meet them. Any information which would help us to get in touch would be greatly valued. Many thanks in advance.

Finally, before closing this Preface, it may be appropriate to discuss the distinction between normative and factual history.

# Official and normative history versus factual history

## Positive versus normative economics

Economists commonly distinguish positive (also sometimes called factual) economics which describes “what is” that is to say bare facts from normative economics which explains “what ought to be”.

* An example of a positive statement is as follows. “In 2010 income inequality was higher in the United States than in France”.

* An example of a normative economic statement is as follows: “The price of milk should be three euro a liter to give dairy farmers a higher living standard”.

However the distinction between positive and normative statements is not always straightforward. The main reason is because, apart from openly acknowledged preferences, there are also inclinations that are accepted implicitly. For instance, it is a commonly accepted belief (except possibly by some ultra neoliberal economists) that high income inequality is less desirable than moderate inequality. This would make our previous example of a factual statement also partly normative. The question becomes even more involved when one observes that inequality can be measured in various ways (e.g. by the share of total income received by the top 1% or by the Gini coefficient). In other words, the same situation may be viewed differently when assessed through different metrics.

However, it seems clear that no matter how difficult it may be, one should always try to separate factual from normative facets. Not to do that can only lead to confusion and bias.
## Official and normative history versus factual history

While important in economics, this distinction is even more crucial in history. A simple reason is that most historians write the history of their own country which leads them to adopt a particular national perspective. For instance, in the account of an anti-colonial conflict, the same warriors will be called terrorists by one side and freedom fighters by the other. As another example, there is a French king who is called “John the Good” (1350-1364) but whose reign actually was a complete disaster for the country. His army was defeated, he was taken to England as a prisoner and his kingdom sank into chaos. Why he should be called “the Good” remains a total mystery.

## Comparative history and factual history go hand in hand

In his book “Rules of Sociological Method” mentioned earlier, Emile Durkheim says that social phenomena should be studied “from outside”, exactly in the same way as physicists study natural phenomena. In a similar vein the French historian Marc Bloch was telling his students that no chemist would ever say that oxgygen is “good” whereas chlorine gas is “bad”. Nevertheless, in reading their dissertations, he found out that it was very difficult to prevent them from blaming or praising. Accounts in which one uses the words “mistake”, “wrong”, “crime”, “rehabilitation”, “reparation” clearly belong to normative history.

In this respect the best antitode is certainly to adopt a comparative perspective. One may deplore the great number of lives lost in the American Civil war, but a comparative study of civil wars quickly leads to the conclusion that all civil wars are ruthless and brutal conflicts which bring about much misery for the population. The American Civil War is no exception.

We are told that in China it took almost two decades to write an official history of the Communist Party because it had to be approved by the leadership. Similarly, in the United States after each war or occupation of a foreign country professional historians working for the Department of Defense produce an official historical account. For instance the history of the American occupation of Japan comprises no less than 45 volumes. Despite this large size there are many facets of the occupation which are purposefully omitted because they are at variance with the representation of the occupation that the State Department wants to give.

These are clear examples of normative historical accounts. On the contrary, throughout the present book, we try to restrict ourselves to factual history. Remaining focused on a comparative perspective greatly helps to achieve this objective.

## Reading advice
## Official and normative history versus factual history

While important in economics, this distinction is even more crucial in history. A simple reason is that most historians write the history of their own country which leads them to adopt a particular national perspective. For instance, in the account of an anti-colonial conflict, the same warriors will be called terrorists by one side and freedom fighters by the other. As another example, there is a French king who is called “John the Good” (1350-1364) but whose reign actually was a complete disaster for the country. His army was defeated, he was taken to England as a prisoner and his kingdom sank into chaos. Why he should be called “the Good” remains a total mystery.

## Comparative history and factual history go hand in hand

In his book “Rules of Sociological Method” mentioned earlier, Emile Durkheim says that social phenomena should be studied “from outside”, exactly in the same way as physicists study natural phenomena. In a similar vein the French historian Marc Bloch was telling his students that no chemist would ever say that oxgygen is “good” whereas chlorine gas is “bad”. Nevertheless, in reading their dissertations, he found out that it was very difficult to prevent them from blaming or praising. Accounts in which one uses the words “mistake”, “wrong”, “crime”, “rehabilitation”, “reparation” clearly belong to normative history.

In this respect the best antitode is certainly to adopt a comparative perspective. One may deplore the great number of lives lost in the American Civil war, but a comparative study of civil wars quickly leads to the conclusion that all civil wars are ruthless and brutal conflicts which bring about much misery for the population. The American Civil War is no exception.

We are told that in China it took almost two decades to write an official history of the Communist Party because it had to be approved by the leadership. Similarly, in the United States after each war or occupation of a foreign country professional historians working for the Department of Defense produce an official historical account. For instance the history of the American occupation of Japan comprises no less than 45 volumes. Despite this large size there are many facets of the occupation which are purposefully omitted because they are at variance with the representation of the occupation that the State Department wants to give.

These are clear examples of normative historical accounts. On the contrary, throughout the present book, we try to restrict ourselves to factual history. Remaining focused on a comparative perspective greatly helps to achieve this objective.

## Reading advice
In comparative analysis one difficulty is that one is led to analyze many cases which may have occurred in various countries and with which readers may not be familiar. It is of course impossible to explain all cases in detail for it would require a book of 2,000 pages. So, what is the solution?

A possible solution is Wikipedia.

It may be true that some Wikipedia articles are biased or not well informed, however by and large it is a very helpful tool. So, we would suggest to our readers that every time they are not familiar with a question mentioned too briefly in the book, they can get a closer view by reading the corresponding Wikipedia article(s).
In comparative analysis one difficulty is that one is led to analyze many cases which may have occurred in various countries and with which readers may not be familiar. It is of course impossible to explain all cases in detail for it would require a book of 2,000 pages. So, what is the solution?

A possible solution is Wikipedia.

It may be true that some Wikipedia articles are biased or not well informed, however by and large it is a very helpful tool. So, we would suggest to our readers that every time they are not familiar with a question mentioned too briefly in the book, they can get a closer view by reading the corresponding Wikipedia article(s).
## What motivated the attack of September 11, 2001?

In contrast with forthcoming chapters, this one is not about the US-PRC competition. It should be seen as an illustration of the methodology of comparative analysis that we use throughout the book. In the rest of the book, just to prevent the accounts from becoming too long, comparison will most often be limited to only two or three cases. Here, in contrast, the set of similar cases will contain 9 events. We will also explain in detail how these events should be selected. Obviously, this is a crucial point. In other words, this chapter should be considered as an explanation of the methodology.

When one tries to explain the methodology of analytical history one of the main difficulties is to find events with which most persons are familiar. This is not easy for, in most countries, the citizens know the history of their own nation but have only a vague knowledge of the history of other countries. For instance, it would be quite interesting to conduct a survey about how much American or French people know about the history of China. In order to overcome this difficulty we examine in this chapter an event with which many may be familiar, namely the attack of September 11, 2001 against the “World Trade Center” in Manhattan.

Usually, when terrorist actions (e.g. bombings, shootings) occur, the public opinion is left clueless. The actions appear to be random but at the same time it seems difficult to admit that actions requiring careful planning and preparation are completely random. The point we wish to make in this chapter is that one gets a clearer view by analyzing *families of similar attacks* instead of considering them individually. The key is that when a country *A* is targeted by recurrent attacks, particularly when there is a family likeness between them, then it is most often because a state *B* wants to obtain from state *A* something that cannot be obtained through negotiations. Several episodes of this kind could be described. Here we focus on 9/11 because, as already said, is is the most well known. Another episode would be the wave of bombings<fnref n="3" /> which occurred in France in 1986-1987; they were connected to the Eurofif dispute<fnref n="4" />

<footnote n="3">³At the following dates. In 1985: 23 Feb, 8 Mar, 7 Dec. In 1986: 3 Feb, 4 Feb, 5 Feb, 17 Mar, 20 Mar, 8 Sep, 12 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep, 17 Sep. Most of these attacks were small bombs in stores or in the subway.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Before the Islamic Revolution of 1979 Iran had become a partner of Eurodif and as such was entitled to a part of the enriched uranium 235 produced by the installation. Whereas natural uranium contains only 0.75% of uranium 235, nuclear power plants require 3% enriched uranium. Iran wanted France to lift the embargo that had followed the Revolution.</footnote>
## What motivated the attack of September 11, 2001?

In contrast with forthcoming chapters, this one is not about the US-PRC competition. It should be seen as an illustration of the methodology of comparative analysis that we use throughout the book. In the rest of the book, just to prevent the accounts from becoming too long, comparison will most often be limited to only two or three cases. Here, in contrast, the set of similar cases will contain 9 events. We will also explain in detail how these events should be selected. Obviously, this is a crucial point. In other words, this chapter should be considered as an explanation of the methodology.

When one tries to explain the methodology of analytical history one of the main difficulties is to find events with which most persons are familiar. This is not easy for, in most countries, the citizens know the history of their own nation but have only a vague knowledge of the history of other countries. For instance, it would be quite interesting to conduct a survey about how much American or French people know about the history of China. In order to overcome this difficulty we examine in this chapter an event with which many may be familiar, namely the attack of September 11, 2001 against the “World Trade Center” in Manhattan.

Usually, when terrorist actions (e.g. bombings, shootings) occur, the public opinion is left clueless. The actions appear to be random but at the same time it seems difficult to admit that actions requiring careful planning and preparation are completely random. The point we wish to make in this chapter is that one gets a clearer view by analyzing *families of similar attacks* instead of considering them individually. The key is that when a country *A* is targeted by recurrent attacks, particularly when there is a family likeness between them, then it is most often because a state *B* wants to obtain from state *A* something that cannot be obtained through negotiations. Several episodes of this kind could be described. Here we focus on 9/11 because, as already said, is is the most well known. Another episode would be the wave of bombings<fnref n="3" /> which occurred in France in 1986-1987; they were connected to the Eurofif dispute<fnref n="4" />

<footnote n="3">³At the following dates. In 1985: 23 Feb, 8 Mar, 7 Dec. In 1986: 3 Feb, 4 Feb, 5 Feb, 17 Mar, 20 Mar, 8 Sep, 12 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep, 17 Sep. Most of these attacks were small bombs in stores or in the subway.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Before the Islamic Revolution of 1979 Iran had become a partner of Eurodif and as such was entitled to a part of the enriched uranium 235 produced by the installation. Whereas natural uranium contains only 0.75% of uranium 235, nuclear power plants require 3% enriched uranium. Iran wanted France to lift the embargo that had followed the Revolution.</footnote>
between France and Iran.

In March 2017 one of the authors (BR) gave a lecture on the topic of this chapter at an interdisciplinary workshop for scientists held in Galway on the west coast of Ireland. As it was a fairly small audience, he started to ask all participants what was their opinion about the motivation of the attack of 9/11. Most of them said it was a way for Al-Qaida to show its strength to the whole world. In other words, 9/11 was seen as a kind of public relations operation without any *specific* purpose.

In what follows we show that an analysis of 9/11 through the method of comparative analysis leads to a completely different answer.

However before we start we wish to emphasize that, as any other event, 9/11 can be described in two very different ways.

## Two modes of description

Fig. 1.1 illustrates two different ways of describing and analyzing historical events; one is the chronological (also called longitudinal) description while the other is the comparative (also called transversal) description.

* The longitudinal description is illustrated on the left-hand side; it consists in listing what happened in chronological order with as much accuracy as possible. Fig. 1.1 gives 4 important moments but one could give much more. For instance one could record the time when each airliner departed from its airport and what trajectory it followed. This way of describing events is the most commonly used by historians for it is the ordinary way of recounting a story

* Besides this standard way we introduce a comparative perspective whose objective is to find the core-engine of the event under consideration. For demographic, sociological or economic phenomena such a comparative perspective is commonly used. For instance, one may compare birth rates or suicide rates or national income growth rates in different countries. This is commonly done but usually in a purely statistical way rather than in a problem oriented perspective. However, it is fairly uncommon to use a comparative perspective for historical events such as 9/11. In Fig. 1.1 the events included in the comparative perspective on the right-hand side are four of the events mentioned in Table 1 (it is only for lack of space that the other 5 events cited in the subsequent table were not included)..

In order to explain more clearly the difference between the longitudinal and transversal descriptions one can consider the simple case of the fall of an apple from a tree. In this case the chronological view would be to describe the steps which led to this event: the apple has become too heavy; its stem has become dry; the branch has been shaken by a gust of wind. Clearly, even the most detailed account will never
between France and Iran.

In March 2017 one of the authors (BR) gave a lecture on the topic of this chapter at an interdisciplinary workshop for scientists held in Galway on the west coast of Ireland. As it was a fairly small audience, he started to ask all participants what was their opinion about the motivation of the attack of 9/11. Most of them said it was a way for Al-Qaida to show its strength to the whole world. In other words, 9/11 was seen as a kind of public relations operation without any *specific* purpose.

In what follows we show that an analysis of 9/11 through the method of comparative analysis leads to a completely different answer.

However before we start we wish to emphasize that, as any other event, 9/11 can be described in two very different ways.

## Two modes of description

Fig. 1.1 illustrates two different ways of describing and analyzing historical events; one is the chronological (also called longitudinal) description while the other is the comparative (also called transversal) description.

* The longitudinal description is illustrated on the left-hand side; it consists in listing what happened in chronological order with as much accuracy as possible. Fig. 1.1 gives 4 important moments but one could give much more. For instance one could record the time when each airliner departed from its airport and what trajectory it followed. This way of describing events is the most commonly used by historians for it is the ordinary way of recounting a story

* Besides this standard way we introduce a comparative perspective whose objective is to find the core-engine of the event under consideration. For demographic, sociological or economic phenomena such a comparative perspective is commonly used. For instance, one may compare birth rates or suicide rates or national income growth rates in different countries. This is commonly done but usually in a purely statistical way rather than in a problem oriented perspective. However, it is fairly uncommon to use a comparative perspective for historical events such as 9/11. In Fig. 1.1 the events included in the comparative perspective on the right-hand side are four of the events mentioned in Table 1 (it is only for lack of space that the other 5 events cited in the subsequent table were not included)..

In order to explain more clearly the difference between the longitudinal and transversal descriptions one can consider the simple case of the fall of an apple from a tree. In this case the chronological view would be to describe the steps which led to this event: the apple has become too heavy; its stem has become dry; the branch has been shaken by a gust of wind. Clearly, even the most detailed account will never
<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.1** Detailed chronological account versus parallels with “similar” events. The standard way of writing history is to rely on chronological accounts. Taking a comparative view as is done on the right-hand side implies that one must first define how the word “similar” should be understood. In this respect it is important to realize that one encounters exactly the same difficulty in physics. For instance, Newton drew a parallel between the fall of an apple from a tree and the “fall” of the Moon toward the Earth which, at first sight, was not at all obvious.</figcaption></figure>

tell us anything about the force of gravity. In contrast, the comparison with other similar cases such as the fall of pine cones or rain droplets will direct the analysis into the right direction, namely that there is a hidden force which is at work. However, it is only the crucial step taken by Newton who made a parallel with the “fall” of the Moon toward the Earth which eventually revealed the true nature of the force of gravity as well as its universality.

As revealed by the example of the fall of the apple, the main difficulty is to define the comparison set in an appropriate way. Here we explain how this can be done in the case of the 9/11 event.

## Unraveling the attack of 9/11

In discussing the occurrence of historical events, usually not just one but rather several factors can be mentioned as possible causes. Thus, for the Great Depression in the United States there were financial causes such as the stock market crash of
<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.1** Detailed chronological account versus parallels with “similar” events. The standard way of writing history is to rely on chronological accounts. Taking a comparative view as is done on the right-hand side implies that one must first define how the word “similar” should be understood. In this respect it is important to realize that one encounters exactly the same difficulty in physics. For instance, Newton drew a parallel between the fall of an apple from a tree and the “fall” of the Moon toward the Earth which, at first sight, was not at all obvious.</figcaption></figure>

tell us anything about the force of gravity. In contrast, the comparison with other
similar cases such as the fall of pine cones or rain droplets will direct the analysis
into the right direction, namely that there is a hidden force which is at work. How-
ever, it is only the crucial step taken by Newton who made a parallel with the “fall”
of the Moon toward the Earth which eventually revealed the true nature of the force
of gravity as well as its universality.

As revealed by the example of the fall of the apple, the main difficulty is to define
the comparison set in an appropriate way. Here we explain how this can be done in
the case of the 9/11 event.

Unraveling the attack of 9/11

In discussing the occurrence of historical events, usually not just one but rather *several* factors can be mentioned as possible causes. Thus, for the Great Depression in the United States there were financial causes such as the stock market crash of
October 1929 or economic causes such as the world wide overproduction of grains. On the contrary, for an event like the attack of September 11, 2001 there can be only one factor. The reason is simple: 9/11 was planned by a small group of people in the same way as a military action is planned by army headquarters in time of war. Needless to say, any military action has a well defined purpose. In a similar way, the master minds of 9/11 certainly had a definite objective<fnref n="5" />. In what follows we wish to prove that their objective was to obtain that US troops leave Saudi Arabia.

However, nothing convincing can be said if the analysis is limited to a single event. In contrast, from a comparative perspective it becomes fairly clear that 9/11 was in protest to the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia.

Once a whole family of similar events has been selected (Table 1.1) one can give the following arguments.

1. US forces stayed in Saudi Arabia from 7 August 1990 to August 2003. This was perceived as an outrage against Islam. The high profile attacks listed in the table started in 1993 and ceased after 2003 thus covering almost the same time interval. The time lag between 1990 and 1993 can be attributed (i) to the time it took to prepare the first (and ambitious) attack against the World Trade Center. (ii) To an attempted dialogue with the Saudi king (see below the “Addendum” subsection).

We must remember that Saudi Arabia has a special status with respect to the presence of “infidels” (i.e. non-Muslims). The city of Mecca in the south-west of Saudi Arabia is considered the holiest city in Islam; only Muslims are allowed to enter it. Medina (500 km north of Mecca) is considered the second holiest city and, similar to Mecca, non-Muslims are prohibited from entering the sacred core of the city. Since 1986 the Saudi King bears officially the titles of “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques” and “Servant of the two holy places: Mecca and Medina”.

Between 1990 and 2003 there were 9 bold, high profile attacks against embodiments of US power such as embassies, ships, troops or the World Trade Center. These attacks are listed in Table 1.

After August 2003 there were no other attacks of that kind.

In 2003 Saudi Arabia denied the United States permission to use its facilities at Prince Sultan Air Base to attack Iraq.

2. The attacks which took place in Saudi Arabia were directly aimed at American

<footnote n="5">⁵When we wrote this in the first version of the chapter it was rather a working hypothesis. A few months later it received a confirmation when we discovered the declaration made on 23 August 1996 by Osama bin Laden (see below the subsection entitled “Addendum”). Note that for this confirmation to be valid we do not have to assume that he was really one of the master minds of the attack only that he was in contact with them and that his statement reflected the common belief of this group of people.</footnote>
October 1929 or economic causes such as the world wide overproduction of grains. On the contrary, for an event like the attack of September 11, 2001 there can be only one factor. The reason is simple: 9/11 was planned by a small group of people in the same way as a military action is planned by army headquarters in time of war. Needless to say, any military action has a well defined purpose. In a similar way, the master minds of 9/11 certainly had a definite objective<fnref n="5" />. In what follows we wish to prove that their objective was to obtain that US troops leave Saudi Arabia.

However, nothing convincing can be said if the analysis is limited to a single event. In contrast, from a comparative perspective it becomes fairly clear that 9/11 was in protest to the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia.

Once a whole family of similar events has been selected (Table 1.1) one can give the following arguments.

1. US forces stayed in Saudi Arabia from 7 August 1990 to August 2003. This was perceived as an outrage against Islam. The high profile attacks listed in the table started in 1993 and ceased after 2003 thus covering almost the same time interval. The time lag between 1990 and 1993 can be attributed (i) to the time it took to prepare the first (and ambitious) attack against the World Trade Center. (ii) To an attempted dialogue with the Saudi king (see below the “Addendum” subsection).

We must remember that Saudi Arabia has a special status with respect to the presence of “infidels” (i.e. non-Muslims). The city of Mecca in the south-west of Saudi Arabia is considered the holiest city in Islam; only Muslims are allowed to enter it. Medina (500 km north of Mecca) is considered the second holiest city and, similar to Mecca, non-Muslims are prohibited from entering the sacred core of the city. Since 1986 the Saudi King bears officially the titles of “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques” and “Servant of the two holy places: Mecca and Medina”.

Between 1990 and 2003 there were 9 bold, high profile attacks against embodiments of US power such as embassies, ships, troops or the World Trade Center. These attacks are listed in Table 1.

After August 2003 there were no other attacks of that kind.

In 2003 Saudi Arabia denied the United States permission to use its facilities at Prince Sultan Air Base to attack Iraq.

2. The attacks which took place in Saudi Arabia were directly aimed at American

<footnote n="5">⁵When we wrote this in the first version of the chapter it was rather a working hypothesis. A few months later it received a confirmation when we discovered the declaration made on 23 August 1996 by Osama bin Laden (see below the subsection entitled “Addendum”). Note that for this confirmation to be valid we do not have to assume that he was really one of the master minds of the attack only that he was in contact with them and that his statement reflected the common belief of this group of people.</footnote>
<table><caption>Table 1.1 High profile attacks against US interests while there were US troops in Saudi Arabia</caption><thead><tr><th>Year</th><th>Date</th><th>Place</th><th>Number of US fatalities</th><th>Description</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1990</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td></td><td>The first US troops arrive in Saudi Arabia</td></tr><tr><td>1993</td><td>Feb 26</td><td>New York</td><td>6</td><td>First attack against the World Trade Center</td></tr><tr><td>1995</td><td>Nov 13</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>5</td><td>Bombing of US-run training center of Saudi National Guard</td></tr><tr><td>1996</td><td>Jun 25</td><td>Dhahran</td><td>19</td><td>Car bomb against Al Khobar residential building</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Nairobi</td><td>12</td><td>Car bomb against US embassy</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Dar es Salaam</td><td>0</td><td>Car bomb against US embassy</td></tr><tr><td>2000</td><td>Oct 12</td><td>Aden harbor</td><td>17</td><td>Bomb attack against a US Navy destroyer Cole</td></tr><tr><td>2001</td><td>Sep 11</td><td>New York</td><td>2,600</td><td>Attacks against the two towers of the World Trade Center</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td>Oct 8</td><td>Failaka Island</td><td>1</td><td>Attack against US Marines on a training exercise</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>May 13</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>9</td><td>Four simultaneous bombings of western enclaves</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>Aug 26</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td></td><td>The last US Air Force personnel leave Saudi Arabia</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: Nairobi is in Kenya, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Aden in Yemen and Failaka Island in Kuweit. The bombings of Aug 7, 1998 occurred exactly 8 years after the arrival of US troops in Saudi Arabia. According to the “Los Angeles Times” of 26 June 1996, 23 Americans were killed in this attack. The bombing of May 13, 2003 occurred on the first day of a visit in Riyadh of Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Sources: Various articles from the “New York Times” and the following articles from Wikipedia and CNN:

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_World_Trade_Center_bombing

(2) http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9511/saudi_blast/11am/

(3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khobar_Towers_bombing

(4,5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_embassy_bombings

(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

(7) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11Attacks

(8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faylaka_Islandattack

(9) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_compound_bombings

Timeline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_Saudi_Arabia

Withdrawal of US troops: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_Saudi_Arabia.

personnel.

3 The attacks of 1998 on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania took place on 7 August which, it is said, was the day when US troops had arrived in Saudi Arabia 8 years earlier. Following the attacks, a group calling itself the “Liberation Army for Holy Sites” took credit for the bombings. However, in the Wikipedia article about the bombing this claim is dismissed.

4 Nine of the fifteen persons who took part in the attack of 9/11 were Saudi citizens.

We said that these actions were high profile attacks. This is obviously true for the 9/11 attacks and the attack against the warship USS Cole, but the other attacks also showed careful preparation and high technical competence. For instance, despite being about 800 km apart the two attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam occurred
<table><caption>Table 1.1 High profile attacks against US interests while there were US troops in Saudi Arabia</caption><thead><tr><th>Year</th><th>Date</th><th>Place</th><th>Number of US fatalities</th><th>Description</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1990</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td></td><td>The first US troops arrive in Saudi Arabia</td></tr><tr><td>1993</td><td>Feb 26</td><td>New York</td><td>6</td><td>First attack against the World Trade Center</td></tr><tr><td>1995</td><td>Nov 13</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>5</td><td>Bombing of US-run training center of Saudi National Guard</td></tr><tr><td>1996</td><td>Jun 25</td><td>Dhahran</td><td>19</td><td>Car bomb against Al Khobar residential building</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Nairobi</td><td>12</td><td>Car bomb against US embassy</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td>Aug 7</td><td>Dar es Salaam</td><td>0</td><td>Car bomb against US embassy</td></tr><tr><td>2000</td><td>Oct 12</td><td>Aden harbor</td><td>17</td><td>Bomb attack against a US Navy destroyer Cole</td></tr><tr><td>2001</td><td>Sep 11</td><td>New York</td><td>2,600</td><td>Attacks against the two towers of the World Trade Center</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td>Oct 8</td><td>Failaka Island</td><td>1</td><td>Attack against US Marines on a training exercise</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>May 13</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>9</td><td>Four simultaneous bombings of western enclaves</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>Aug 26</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td></td><td>The last US Air Force personnel leave Saudi Arabia</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: Nairobi is in Kenya, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Aden in Yemen and Failaka Island in Kuweit. The bombings of Aug 7, 1998 occurred exactly 8 years after the arrival of US troops in Saudi Arabia. According to the "Los Angeles Times" of 26 June 1996, 23 Americans were killed in this attack. The bombing of May 13, 2003 occurred on the first day of a visit in Riyadh of Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Sources: Various articles from the "New York Times" and the following articles from Wikipedia and CNN:

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_World_Trade_Center_bombing

(2) http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9511/saudi_blast/11am/

(3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khobar_Towers_bombing

(4,5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_embassy_bombings

(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

(7) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11Attacks

(8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faylaka_Islandattack

(9) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_compound_bombings

Timeline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_Saudi_Arabia

Withdrawal of US troops: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_Saudi_Arabia.

personnel.

3 The attacks of 1998 on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania took place on 7 August which, it is said, was the day when US troops had arrived in Saudi Arabia 8 years earlier. Following the attacks, a group calling itself the "Liberation Army for Holy Sites" took credit for the bombings. However, in the Wikipedia article about the bombing this claim is dismissed.

4 Nine of the fifteen persons who took part in the attack of 9/11 were Saudi citizens.

We said that these actions were high profile attacks. This is obviously true for the 9/11 attacks and the attack against the warship USS Cole, but the other attacks also showed careful preparation and high technical competence. For instance, despite being about 800 km apart the two attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam occurred
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.2a Histogram of attacks against US interests.** Outside of the time interval 1990–2003 there were three attacks against US interests that can be considered as “high profile”: (i) the Lockerbie destruction of a Pan American airliner (21 December 1988), (ii) Attack on the US consulate in Jeddah, a Saudi port: 9 non-American persons were killed (6 December 2004), (iii) Bombing of the US consulate in Karachi (Pakistan): 5 persons were killed, including one American diplomat (2 March 2006). Source: *Wikipedia, Lists of terrorist incidents*.</figcaption></figure>

almost simultaneously at 10:30am and 10:40am respectively and used bombs which had a power equivalent to 10 tons of TNT.

It can be observed that in the articles published in the “New York Times” about the attacks that took place in Saudi Arabia it is of course mentioned that they were in protest against US presence in Saudi Arabia. Yet, in the attacks carried out in other countries this reason is hardly ever mentioned.

**Answer to a possible objection**

A possible objection to the previous explanation may come to mind. If the attacks were a protest against the presence of US forces in Saudi Arabia why were they not all carried out on Saudi soil? One possible answer is to observe that as Saudi Arabia is a very repressive regime, it may have been difficult to set up appropriate networks there. Similarly one can suppose that the attacks of Nairobi and Dar es Saalam may
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.2a Histogram of attacks against US interests.** Outside of the time interval 1990–2003 there were three attacks against US interests that can be considered as “high profile”: (i) the Lockerbie destruction of a Pan American airliner (21 December 1988), (ii) Attack on the US consulate in Jeddah, a Saudi port: 9 non-American persons were killed (6 December 2004), (iii) Bombing of the US consulate in Karachi (Pakistan): 5 persons were killed, including one American diplomat (2 March 2006). Source: *Wikipedia, Lists of terrorist incidents*.</figcaption></figure>

almost simultaneously at 10:30am and 10:40am respectively and used bombs which had a power equivalent to 10 tons of TNT.

It can be observed that in the articles published in the “New York Times” about the attacks that took place in Saudi Arabia it is of course mentioned that they were in protest against US presence in Saudi Arabia. Yet, in the attacks carried out in other countries this reason is hardly ever mentioned.

**Answer to a possible objection**

A possible objection to the previous explanation may come to mind. If the attacks were a protest against the presence of US forces in Saudi Arabia why were they not all carried out on Saudi soil? One possible answer is to observe that as Saudi Arabia is a very repressive regime, it may have been difficult to set up appropriate networks there. Similarly one can suppose that the attacks of Nairobi and Dar es Saalam may
<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.2b Bombings in Saudi Arabia and Aden.** (a) The Khobar buildings in the city of Dhahran housed 2,000 US Air Force personnel assigned to the nearby Dhahran Air Base (now called King Abdul Aziz Air Base). In 1996 a car bomb attack targeted one of these buildings. (b) In 2000 the destroyer USS Cole was attacked in the port of Aden while refueling. The picture was taken after the ship had been loaded on a rescue ship to be transported back to the United States. After the withdrawal of US troops there was no other high profile attack.</figcaption></figure>

have been decided because networks already existed there. In order to check the validity of these explanations one would need detailed knowledge of how the attacks were planned.

**Just another conspiracy theory?**

It is a common rule that every terrorist attack brings about a number of conspiracy theories. It could be argued that our interpretation is nothing more than such a conspiracy theory. There is a major difference, however in the sense that almost all conspiracy theories focus on only one case for which they claim to provide new (and often unverified) information. As they are about only one case, these theories are not testable. In contrast, by including a set of cases, our explanation becomes testable. Thus, the occurrence of a high profile attack directed against US interests in Saudi Arabia *after* the withdrawal of US forces would throw our interpretation into doubt. It would not completely contradict it for there can of course be two separate and overlapping terrorist campaigns under way at the same time. This, however, would make the task much more difficult for one would need to identify two strains instead of just one.

**How to select the events which belong to the same strain?**

The previous example can illustrate an important aspect of the comparative methodology, namely the selection of events which can be considered as belonging to the same family of recurrent events<fnref n="6" />. During the time interval considered in Table 1 there

<footnote n="6">⁶If in the past we can identify a series of events which tend to repeat themselves this regularity can be used to make</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.2b Bombings in Saudi Arabia and Aden.** (a) The Khobar buildings in the city of Dhahran housed 2,000 US Air Force personnel assigned to the nearby Dhahran Air Base (now called King Abdul Aziz Air Base). In 1996 a car bomb attack targeted one of these buildings. (b) In 2000 the destroyer USS Cole was attacked in the port of Aden while refueling. The picture was taken after the ship had been loaded on a rescue ship to be transported back to the United States. After the withdrawal of US troops there was no other high profile attack.</figcaption></figure>

have been decided because networks already existed there. In order to check the validity of these explanations one would need detailed knowledge of how the attacks were planned.

**Just another conspiracy theory?**

It is a common rule that every terrorist attack brings about a number of conspiracy theories. It could be argued that our interpretation is nothing more than such a conspiracy theory. There is a major difference, however in the sense that almost all conspiracy theories focus on only one case for which they claim to provide new (and often unverified) information. As they are about only one case, these theories are not testable. In contrast, by including a set of cases, our explanation becomes testable. Thus, the occurrence of a high profile attack directed against US interests in Saudi Arabia *after* the withdrawal of US forces would throw our interpretation into doubt. It would not completely contradict it for there can of course be two separate and overlapping terrorist campaigns under way at the same time. This, however, would make the task much more difficult for one would need to identify two strains instead of just one.

**How to select the events which belong to the same strain?**

The previous example can illustrate an important aspect of the comparative methodology, namely the selection of events which can be considered as belonging to the same family of recurrent events<fnref n="6" />. During the time interval considered in Table 1 there

<footnote n="6">⁶If in the past we can identify a series of events which tend to repeat themselves this regularity can be used to make</footnote>
were also other attacks that we did not include. For instance, we did not include the
Oklahoma bombing of 19 April 1995, the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002 and the
Mombasa attack of 22 November 2002.

Why?

*   **Oklahoma bombing, 19 April 1995.** A powerful car bomb exploded outside a federal building killing 165 persons. If one remembers that apart from other federal services the building also housed the US Secret Service and recruiting offices for the US Army and Marine Corp one can say that the attack was clearly directed against US interests. However, the reason of the attack was completely different from those listed in Table 1. As often, the date of the attack gives an indication. On April 19, 1993, a standoff between FBI agents and Branch Davidians ended in a fire that destroyed their compound near Waco in Texas killing 74 occupants. Also (but perhaps unrelated) on the very day of the attack Richard Snell, the founder of a US supremacist group who had contemplated an attack on the same building, was executed for murder in Arkansas.

*   **Bali bombing, 12 October 2002.** One obvious reason for not including the Bali bombing is that it was not directed against US interests. Of the 202 persons killed only 7 were US citizens whereas 88 were Australians. However, this criterion alone may not be sufficient for in the Nairobi bombing there were also over 200 fatalities of which only 12 were US citizens. In addition it is true that in Bali almost at the same moment (in fact a few minutes earlier) a small bomb detonated outside the US consulate in Denpasar, the capital of the Bali province. However it caused no death and only minor damage.

*   **Mombasa (Kenya), 28 November 2002.** A car bomb exploded outside the "Paradise Hotel", an Israeli-owned hotel, killing 13 and injuring 80. Among the dead there were 3 Israelis and 10 Kenyans. Almost at the same time attackers fired two surface-to-air missiles at an Israeli charter plane which missed their target. Obviously these attacks were not directed against US interests. A group which claimed responsibility for the attack said it wanted to draw attention on the plight of Palestinian refugees on the 55th anniversary of the partition of Palestine. Indeed, the date of the attack was one day before the anniversary day of the United Nations vote of 29 November 1947 which decided the partition.

*   One can also mention that on 8 November 2003, a suicide truck bomb exploded in Riyadh in the Muhiya residential area inhabited by Saudis and Arab foreigners. Some 18 persons were killed but the selection of the place reveals that this attack did not target US interests, at least not directly.

On the other hand it should also be mentioned that some high profile attacks occurred

<footnote>predictions for similar events in the future. A similar approach was developed by Prof. Jürgen Mimkes (2017).</footnote>
were also other attacks that we did not include. For instance, we did not include the
Oklahoma bombing of 19 April 1995, the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002 and the
Mombasa attack of 22 November 2002.

Why?

*   **Oklahoma bombing, 19 April 1995.** A powerful car bomb exploded outside a federal building killing 165 persons. If one remembers that apart from other federal services the building also housed the US Secret Service and recruiting offices for the US Army and Marine Corp one can say that the attack was clearly directed against US interests. However, the reason of the attack was completely different from those listed in Table 1. As often, the date of the attack gives an indication. On April 19, 1993, a standoff between FBI agents and Branch Davidians ended in a fire that destroyed their compound near Waco in Texas killing 74 occupants. Also (but perhaps unrelated) on the very day of the attack Richard Snell, the founder of a US supremacist group who had contemplated an attack on the same building, was executed for murder in Arkansas.

*   **Bali bombing, 12 October 2002.** One obvious reason for not including the Bali bombing is that it was not directed against US interests. Of the 202 persons killed only 7 were US citizens whereas 88 were Australians. However, this criterion alone may not be sufficient for in the Nairobi bombing there were also over 200 fatalities of which only 12 were US citizens. In addition it is true that in Bali almost at the same moment (in fact a few minutes earlier) a small bomb detonated outside the US consulate in Denpasar, the capital of the Bali province. However it caused no death and only minor damage.

*   **Mombasa (Kenya), 28 November 2002.** A car bomb exploded outside the "Paradise Hotel", an Israeli-owned hotel, killing 13 and injuring 80. Among the dead there were 3 Israelis and 10 Kenyans. Almost at the same time attackers fired two surface-to-air missiles at an Israeli charter plane which missed their target. Obviously these attacks were not directed against US interests. A group which claimed responsibility for the attack said it wanted to draw attention on the plight of Palestinian refugees on the 55th anniversary of the partition of Palestine. Indeed, the date of the attack was one day before the anniversary day of the United Nations vote of 29 November 1947 which decided the partition.

*   One can also mention that on 8 November 2003, a suicide truck bomb exploded in Riyadh in the Muhiya residential area inhabited by Saudis and Arab foreigners. Some 18 persons were killed but the selection of the place reveals that this attack did not target US interests, at least not directly.

On the other hand it should also be mentioned that some high profile attacks occurred

<footnote>predictions for similar events in the future. A similar approach was developed by Prof. Jürgen Mimkes (2017).</footnote>
before the time interval considered in Table 1.1. This is not really a problem for no
claim is made that high profile attacks started in 1990. However, the frequency of
such attacks increased sharply after 1990. As examples of high profile attacks before
1990 one can mention (i) The Beirut car bombing of 23 October 1983 which was
directed against the barracks of US Marines and French servicemen. It was said that
it used the same kind of explosive (namely a gas enhanced device) as the bombing of
1993 against the World Trade Center. It is still unclear who planned the attack but its
level of sophistication suggests that it benefited from the resources of a government.
(ii) The so-called Lockerbie bombing of a Pan American airplane in December 1988
for which the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi took responsibility in 2003. Thus,
in the decade 1980-1989 there were 2 high profile attacks whereas in the decade
1993-2003 there were 9.

In the present case the distinction between events which should be included and
those which should be excluded was fairly clear. However, it should be observed
that it would be difficult to define strict criteria. Many factors may play a role such
as the date of the attack or the technical characteristics of the bomb. As we will see
in a moment one meets the same difficulty in medicine and even in physics.

Addendum: Excerpts of the “War on the US” proclamation issued by Osama bin Laden on 23 August 1996

The word “Addendum” in the title refers to the fact that the proclamation made by
Osama bin Laden became known to the authors only in late September 2017 that is
to say several months after the first draft of this chapter had been written. This fatwa
(a word which refers to a religious ruling in Islam) is of interest for two reasons.

* Although it is a fairly long document, it has basically only one objective namely to denounce the occupation of Saudi Arabia, “the land of the two holiest sites, the cradle of Islam, the source of the Prophet’s mission and the site of the Kabah by the Christian army of the Americans”. This shows how painful this occupation was for Muslim people.

* It explains why a guerrilla warfare was the only means that remained after all pleas made to the Saudi king remained unanswered.

Here are a few excerpts:

1. Many scholars, preachers and youth were arrested in the land of the two Holiest sites upon the instructions of America. Most prominent were Sheikh Salman al-Udah and Sheikh Safar al-Hawali.

2. The King has violated the prophet's command by allowing the crusaders into the Arab Peninsula. The Prophet said on his deathbed: "Expel the infidels from the Arabian Peninsula". He also said "If it should please God Almighty that I live, I will expel the Jews and the Christians from the Arabian Peninsula".
before the time interval considered in Table 1.1. This is not really a problem for no
claim is made that high profile attacks started in 1990. However, the frequency of
such attacks increased sharply after 1990. As examples of high profile attacks before
1990 one can mention (i) The Beirut car bombing of 23 October 1983 which was
directed against the barracks of US Marines and French servicemen. It was said that
it used the same kind of explosive (namely a gas enhanced device) as the bombing of
1993 against the World Trade Center. It is still unclear who planned the attack but its
level of sophistication suggests that it benefited from the resources of a government.
(ii) The so-called Lockerbie bombing of a Pan American airplane in December 1988
for which the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi took responsibility in 2003. Thus,
in the decade 1980-1989 there were 2 high profile attacks whereas in the decade
1993-2003 there were 9.

In the present case the distinction between events which should be included and
those which should be excluded was fairly clear. However, it should be observed
that it would be difficult to define strict criteria. Many factors may play a role such
as the date of the attack or the technical characteristics of the bomb. As we will see
in a moment one meets the same difficulty in medicine and even in physics.

Addendum: Excerpts of the “War on the US” proclamation issued by Osama bin Laden on 23 August 1996

The word “Addendum” in the title refers to the fact that the proclamation made by
Osama bin Laden became known to the authors only in late September 2017 that is
to say several months after the first draft of this chapter had been written. This fatwa
(a word which refers to a religious ruling in Islam) is of interest for two reasons.

* Although it is a fairly long document, it has basically only one objective namely to denounce the occupation of Saudi Arabia, “the land of the two holiest sites, the cradle of Islam, the source of the Prophet’s mission and the site of the Kabah by the Christian army of the Americans”. This shows how painful this occupation was for Muslim people.

* It explains why a guerrilla warfare was the only means that remained after all pleas made to the Saudi king remained unanswered.

Here are a few excerpts:

1. Many scholars, preachers and youth were arrested in the land of the two Holiest sites upon the instructions of America. Most prominent were Sheikh Salman al-Udah and Sheikh Safar al-Hawali.

2. The King has violated the prophet's command by allowing the crusaders into the Arab Peninsula. The Prophet said on his deathbed: "Expel the infidels from the Arabian Peninsula". He also said "If it should please God Almighty that I live, I will expel the Jews and the Christians from the Arabian Peninsula".
3 We expect the women in the land of the two holiest sites and other places to do their part by boycotting American goods. The combination of the economic sanctions and the Mujahideen military attacks will help defeating the enemy. The youth know that the disgrace and shame that afflicted the Muslims, through the occupation of their sacred places, will not be removed except by Jihad and explosives.

Bombing by western aircraft and terrorist attacks

Here is another case in which the possible motivation of terrorist attacks was covered up whether intentionally or not.

Between November 2015 and May 2017 there have been many terrorist attacks in France carried out by so-called jihadists. Often in the message that they left behind them before engaging in the attack and being killed, the perpetrators stated that it was in retaliation of bombings conducted in Iraq by French aircraft. However, as a French citizen, one of the authors (BR) was very surprised that in their accounts and comments French media hardly ever mentioned such possible links. Was that attitude sheer blindness or was it by purpose lest the public may ask bombing missions to be discontinued?

As a specific case one can mention a failed bombing attack on 19 June 2017. The djihadist named Adam Djaziri rammed his car into a police van in Paris, and was killed in the accident. Gas containers and several weapons were allegedly found in the car. A few days later the media revealed that on 29 May Djaziri had sent letters to several newspapers. Of this 6-page document the media gave only one sentence, namely that he asked the French government to discontinue the bombings by French aircraft in Syria. However, in line with all other cases, this single sentence was immediately dismissed and forgotten.

Instead of remaining focused on France we should of course consider similar cases. After the attack of 22 March 2017 in London, one of the authors (BR) asked one of his English colleagues whether the British media had acknowledged a possible connection with the participation of British aircraft in the bombing of Iraq and Syria. It seems that, as in France, such a link was almost never mentioned.

We can broaden the field of observation even more. It turns out that there have been similar attacks in Australia, Belgium, France Germany, Russia, Sweden, the UK and the US. Of these countries, Sweden is the only one which does not conduct bombing missions. However, it is part of the anti-ISIL coalition consisting of 66 nations led by the United States 7. Conversely, it seems there is only one country, namely the

<footnote n="7">7 As of July 2015 the coalition consisted of the following countries: Albania, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia,</footnote>
3 We expect the women in the land of the two holiest sites and other places to do their part by boycotting American goods. The combination of the economic sanctions and the Mujahideen military attacks will help defeating the enemy. The youth know that the disgrace and shame that afflicted the Muslims, through the occupation of their sacred places, will not be removed except by Jihad and explosives.

Bombing by western aircraft and terrorist attacks

Here is another case in which the possible motivation of terrorist attacks was covered up whether intentionally or not.

Between November 2015 and May 2017 there have been many terrorist attacks in France carried out by so-called jihadists. Often in the message that they left behind them before engaging in the attack and being killed, the perpetrators stated that it was in retaliation of bombings conducted in Iraq by French aircraft. However, as a French citizen, one of the authors (BR) was very surprised that in their accounts and comments French media hardly ever mentioned such possible links. Was that attitude sheer blindness or was it by purpose lest the public may ask bombing missions to be discontinued?

As a specific case one can mention a failed bombing attack on 19 June 2017. The djihadist named Adam Djaziri rammed his car into a police van in Paris, and was killed in the accident. Gas containers and several weapons were allegedly found in the car. A few days later the media revealed that on 29 May Djaziri had sent letters to several newspapers. Of this 6-page document the media gave only one sentence, namely that he asked the French government to discontinue the bombings by French aircraft in Syria. However, in line with all other cases, this single sentence was immediately dismissed and forgotten.

Instead of remaining focused on France we should of course consider similar cases. After the attack of 22 March 2017 in London, one of the authors (BR) asked one of his English colleagues whether the British media had acknowledged a possible connection with the participation of British aircraft in the bombing of Iraq and Syria. It seems that, as in France, such a link was almost never mentioned.

We can broaden the field of observation even more. It turns out that there have been similar attacks in Australia, Belgium, France Germany, Russia, Sweden, the UK and the US. Of these countries, Sweden is the only one which does not conduct bombing missions. However, it is part of the anti-ISIL coalition consisting of 66 nations led by the United States 7. Conversely, it seems there is only one country, namely the

<footnote n="7">7 As of July 2015 the coalition consisted of the following countries: Albania, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia,</footnote>
Netherlands<fnref n="8" />, which had done bombing missions without however experiencing a terrorist attack (at the date of 13 May 2017).

In short, even independently of the statements left by the perpetrators, the comparative analysis and particularly the high correlation between bombing missions and attacks suggests the existence of a close link.

Clearly this raises the question of why the cover up of this connection by western media is so well respected. Are they not said to be “free media”?

This wall of silence is especially astounding when one considers that day after day such attacks give rise to lengthy reports in the media; the issue of how security can possibly be improved is addressed over and over again. Yet, the plain idea that there may be a connection with the role assumed by the coalition countries in Iraq, Libya and Syria is never alluded to.

In the media (whether newspapers, TV or Internet) I have red numerous articles asking: “How can we improve security?’. Many ways were suggested (more police forces, better intelligence and so on) but none of these articles ever suggested “May be we should discontinue our bombing campaign and our participation in the coalition”.

**Definition of families of “similar” phenomena in physics**

Experimental physics, which so far has been the most successful of all scientific fields, is entirely based on comparing the results of experiments performed under different conditions. In other words, for physicists the comparative approach presented in this chapter should be quite natural. That was indeed the case at the end of the 19th century but no longer nowadays because over the past century physics has become more and more guided by theory.

We have said above that even in physics it is not always obvious to decide whether an observation should be included into one family or another. This can be illustrated by the case of the free fall of an object. Ideally, free fall means fall in vacuum. However, if the density of the object is much higher than the density of air then a fall in air can be considered as a free fall. However, as the density of the object decreases the fall will less and less follow the law of free fall. Whether a given observation should be included into the “free fall family” or into the “viscous medium fall family” depends

<footnote>European Union, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, UAE, UK and the US. Is it not amazing that all these countries were convinced they had a legitimate right to interfere in those civil wars, whether in Iraq, Libya or Syria. In the Vietnam war, also a civil war, less than half a dozen countries had assisted US forces.</footnote>

<footnote n="8">⁸Canada conducted only refueling and reconnaissance missions.</footnote>
Netherlands<fnref n="8" />, which had done bombing missions without however experiencing a terrorist attack (at the date of 13 May 2017).

In short, even independently of the statements left by the perpetrators, the comparative analysis and particularly the high correlation between bombing missions and attacks suggests the existence of a close link.

Clearly this raises the question of why the cover up of this connection by western media is so well respected. Are they not said to be “free media”?

This wall of silence is especially astounding when one considers that day after day such attacks give rise to lengthy reports in the media; the issue of how security can possibly be improved is addressed over and over again. Yet, the plain idea that there may be a connection with the role assumed by the coalition countries in Iraq, Libya and Syria is never alluded to.

In the media (whether newspapers, TV or Internet) I have red numerous articles asking: “How can we improve security?’. Many ways were suggested (more police forces, better intelligence and so on) but none of these articles ever suggested “May be we should discontinue our bombing campaign and our participation in the coalition”.

**Definition of families of “similar” phenomena in physics**

Experimental physics, which so far has been the most successful of all scientific fields, is entirely based on comparing the results of experiments performed under different conditions. In other words, for physicists the comparative approach presented in this chapter should be quite natural. That was indeed the case at the end of the 19th century but no longer nowadays because over the past century physics has become more and more guided by theory.

We have said above that even in physics it is not always obvious to decide whether an observation should be included into one family or another. This can be illustrated by the case of the free fall of an object. Ideally, free fall means fall in vacuum. However, if the density of the object is much higher than the density of air then a fall in air can be considered as a free fall. However, as the density of the object decreases the fall will less and less follow the law of free fall. Whether a given observation should be included into the “free fall family” or into the “viscous medium fall family” depends

<footnote>European Union, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, UAE, UK and the US. Is it not amazing that all these countries were convinced they had a legitimate right to interfere in those civil wars, whether in Iraq, Libya or Syria. In the Vietnam war, also a civil war, less than half a dozen countries had assisted US forces.</footnote>

<footnote n="8">⁸Canada conducted only refueling and reconnaissance missions.</footnote>
very much upon what is the accuracy of the measurement.

## Why a high noise level complicates scientific analysis

Another observation may be of interest regarding the question of making comparisons in experimental physics.

It turns out that the first accurate test of Newton's law was based on astronomical observations for the planet Mars done by Tycho Brahe and Kepler. At first sight this could appear surprising. Would it not have been easier to set up an experiment in the laboratory?

What made planets of great interest is the fact that they are moving without friction, a characteristic which is not easy to implement in laboratory experiments. The movement of a pendulum is probably one of the closest approximation of an experiment with little friction. Not surprisingly, from Galileo (1600) to Friedrich Bessel (added mass, 1828), to Léon Foucault (rotation of the Earth, 1851), the pendulum played a great role in the development of classical mechanics.

For the same reason, it was much more challenging to understand experiments whose results change when they are repeated. That is the case of experiments which involve turbulence or quantum mechanical effects. It is hardly surprising that the explanation of such phenomena occurred only in the 20th century. For instance the photoelectric effect was investigated by Albert Einstein in 1905 and his predictions were confirmed experimentally by Robert Millikan in 1914. Both Einstein and Millikan were awarded the Nobel Prize for their discovery.

The previous discussion can be summarized by saying that observations in which the signal to “noise” ratio, *s/n*, is low are much more difficult to understand than those for which this ratio is high.

### High level of noise in recurrent historical events

Because recurrent historical events may contain a high level of noise<fnref n="9" /> their observation and interpretation may be tricky. However, there can be little doubt that by increasing sufficiently the size of the sample of events one will be able to extract the same kind of regularities as observed in physics. By making historical records more easily available worldwide, the Internet will greatly facilitate this quest.

<footnote n="9">⁹Moreover, in contrast with turbulence or quantum effects this noise is not purely random which creates an additional difficulty.</footnote>
very much upon what is the accuracy of the measurement.

## Why a high noise level complicates scientific analysis

Another observation may be of interest regarding the question of making comparisons in experimental physics.

It turns out that the first accurate test of Newton's law was based on astronomical observations for the planet Mars done by Tycho Brahe and Kepler. At first sight this could appear surprising. Would it not have been easier to set up an experiment in the laboratory?

What made planets of great interest is the fact that they are moving without friction, a characteristic which is not easy to implement in laboratory experiments. The movement of a pendulum is probably one of the closest approximation of an experiment with little friction. Not surprisingly, from Galileo (1600) to Friedrich Bessel (added mass, 1828), to Léon Foucault (rotation of the Earth, 1851), the pendulum played a great role in the development of classical mechanics.

For the same reason, it was much more challenging to understand experiments whose results change when they are repeated. That is the case of experiments which involve turbulence or quantum mechanical effects. It is hardly surprising that the explanation of such phenomena occurred only in the 20th century. For instance the photoelectric effect was investigated by Albert Einstein in 1905 and his predictions were confirmed experimentally by Robert Millikan in 1914. Both Einstein and Millikan were awarded the Nobel Prize for their discovery.

The previous discussion can be summarized by saying that observations in which the signal to “noise” ratio, *s/n*, is low are much more difficult to understand than those for which this ratio is high.

### High level of noise in recurrent historical events

Because recurrent historical events may contain a high level of noise<fnref n="9" /> their observation and interpretation may be tricky. However, there can be little doubt that by increasing sufficiently the size of the sample of events one will be able to extract the same kind of regularities as observed in physics. By making historical records more easily available worldwide, the Internet will greatly facilitate this quest.

<footnote n="9">⁹Moreover, in contrast with turbulence or quantum effects this noise is not purely random which creates an additional difficulty.</footnote>
## Chapter 2
# US-PRC competition for world leadership

To give an idea of the diplomatic influence of the United States in the present world (2017), it may be useful to list the 66 countries which took part in the US-lead coalition against ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria).

Afghanistan, Albania, Arab League, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Republic of Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Kosovo, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malaysia, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States.

There is also a so-called “Small Group” which includes the most active countries in this coalition.

Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, New Zealand, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, UAE, UK, US.

It can be observed that there are a number of countries (and among them several major powers) which are *not* taking part in this coalition, namely: China, India, Pakistan, The Philippines, Russia, Switzerland and almost all countries of Latin America.

This preliminary observation gives a taste of the situation of the world in 2017.

## Introduction

### World leadership seen in the light of mankind's history

All remaining chapters of the first part of this book are about the competition for world leadership currently under way between the United States and the People's Republic of China. From a historical perspective this is a question of crucial importance. Why? The answer is simple. In the history of mankind the situation enjoyed
**Chapter 2**

# US-PRC competition for world leadership

To give an idea of the diplomatic influence of the United States in the present world (2017), it may be useful to list the 66 countries which took part in the US-lead coalition against ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria).

Afghanistan, Albania, Arab League, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Republic of Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Kosovo, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malaysia, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States.

There is also a so-called “Small Group” which includes the most active countries in this coalition.

Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, New Zealand, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, UAE, UK, US.

It can be observed that there are a number of countries (and among them several major powers) which are *not* taking part in this coalition, namely: China, India, Pakistan, The Philippines, Russia, Switzerland and almost all countries of Latin America.

This preliminary observation gives a taste of the situation of the world in 2017.

## Introduction

### World leadership seen in the light of mankind's history

All remaining chapters of the first part of this book are about the competition for world leadership currently under way between the United States and the People's Republic of China. From a historical perspective this is a question of crucial importance. Why? The answer is simple. In the history of mankind the situation enjoyed
by the United States since 1945 is the first example of a worldwide hegemony of
such a scope: economic, military, political, cultural, scientific.

It is true that the Roman Republic which was followed by the Roman Empire domi-
nated the Mediterranean world but at that time China, India and Persia, not to speak
of pre-Columbian empires, were major players too. Moreover, even in the Roman
Empire itself Latin shared its hegemony with Greek especially in the eastern part of
the empire.

From 1840 to 1914 the British Empire was the sole super-power but never to the extent reached by the US after 1945. It had military outposts in its colonies and in a few other countries (e.g. China) but none on the territory of other great powers such as the US, Germany, France or Russia. Although the universities of Oxford and Cambridge were known worldwide, their influence was by no means comparable to the present domination of US universities.

Finally, it can be observed that in the wake of the Second World War and then of the
Cold War the Federal government has developed a very effective machinery aimed at
spreading the US model overseas through the well coordinated action of the Senate,
State Department, Department of Defense, Treasury, Department of Justice, together
with the networks of American media and universities.

What can be expected from growing Chinese economic influence?

The prevalent opinion in the Chinese public seems to be that economic growth will solve all problems. For instance, once mainland's income per capita will surpass Taiwan's it is expected that the Taiwanese people will be happy to join the PRC just as the people of East Germany gladly joined West Germany in 1990. Is this realistic?

More broadly are the PRC's core interests better respected now that China is the
world's largest economy in terms of foreign trade than they were in the past? A
brief look at two core-questions, namely Taiwan and Tibet show that it is rather the
opposite.

* Over the past 30 years, instead of declining, US sales of weapons to Taiwan have substantially increased.

* Regarding Tibet, one can observe that between 1959 and 1990 there was not a single meeting between US presidents and the Dalai Lama; then, between 1990 and 2014, there were nine.

Such observations raise the question of whether the United States really wants to share world leadership with another power. As discussed in the next section, from a historical perspective situations of shared leadership have indeed been quite uncommon.

Will the insight provided by comparative analysis enable us to view such issues more
by the United States since 1945 is the first example of a worldwide hegemony of
such a scope: economic, military, political, cultural, scientific.

It is true that the Roman Republic which was followed by the Roman Empire domi-
nated the Mediterranean world but at that time China, India and Persia, not to speak
of pre-Columbian empires, were major players too. Moreover, even in the Roman
Empire itself Latin shared its hegemony with Greek especially in the eastern part of
the empire.

From 1840 to 1914 the British Empire was the sole super-power but never to the extent reached by the US after 1945. It had military outposts in its colonies and in a few other countries (e.g. China) but none on the territory of other great powers such as the US, Germany, France or Russia. Although the universities of Oxford and Cambridge were known worldwide, their influence was by no means comparable to the present domination of US universities.

Finally, it can be observed that in the wake of the Second World War and then of the
Cold War the Federal government has developed a very effective machinery aimed at
spreading the US model overseas through the well coordinated action of the Senate,
State Department, Department of Defense, Treasury, Department of Justice, together
with the networks of American media and universities.

What can be expected from growing Chinese economic influence?

The prevalent opinion in the Chinese public seems to be that economic growth will solve all problems. For instance, once mainland's income per capita will surpass Taiwan's it is expected that the Taiwanese people will be happy to join the PRC just as the people of East Germany gladly joined West Germany in 1990. Is this realistic?

More broadly are the PRC's core interests better respected now that China is the
world's largest economy in terms of foreign trade than they were in the past? A
brief look at two core-questions, namely Taiwan and Tibet show that it is rather the
opposite.

* Over the past 30 years, instead of declining, US sales of weapons to Taiwan have substantially increased.

* Regarding Tibet, one can observe that between 1959 and 1990 there was not a single meeting between US presidents and the Dalai Lama; then, between 1990 and 2014, there were nine.

Such observations raise the question of whether the United States really wants to share world leadership with another power. As discussed in the next section, from a historical perspective situations of shared leadership have indeed been quite uncommon.

Will the insight provided by comparative analysis enable us to view such issues more
clearly? In what follows readers will be able to judge by themselves.

## Condominium or competition? A historical view

A condominium is a territory that two powers agree to rule in cooperation. For instance, Britain and France agreed to establish a condominium over the archipelago of New Hebrides in the Pacific Ocean which lasted from 1906 to 1980 after which the territory became independent under the name of Vanuatu. This concept describes fairly well the win-win relation of cooperation that the Chinese government wishes to establish with the United States.

However, history suggests that relations of cooperation between two dominant powers have been rare. On the contrary, cases where two great powers came in conflict because they did not wish to share the leadership seem very common.

### Classic cases

A classic example is the case of Sparta and Athens, two major city-states in Greece who came into conflict in the Peloponnesian wars. The first one lasted fifteen years from -469 to -445 and the second lasted almost thirty years from -431 to -404. In these long conflicts, Athens held the role of a maritime power while Sparta was rather a continental power.

Also in the antiquity but two centuries later, the three Punic wars (-264 to -146) opposed two contenders for dominance in the western Mediterranean, namely the Roman republic and the Carthaginian Empire. Rome was a rapidly ascending power in Italy and after more than a hundred years and the loss of thousands of soldiers from both sides, Rome conquered Carthage's empire, completely destroyed the city, and become the most powerful state of the Western Mediterranean. It would keep that position for over four centuries in the west and until the 15th century for the eastern part of the empire.

### Endless rivalry in western Europe

In more recent times, a long series of wars (from 1754 to 1815) opposed France and Great Britain for dominance in western Europe. It is worth mentioning that these wars were already world wars because they extended to the colonial possessions of the two powers in North America, the Caribbean islands and India.

The first World War opposed Britain, France and Russia on the one hand to Austria-Hungary, Germany and Turkey on the other hand, once again for dominance in Europe.

### The special case of the UK submitting to US domination

Among western countries one case where dominance shifted from one power to an-
clearly? In what follows readers will be able to judge by themselves.

## Condominium or competition? A historical view

A condominium is a territory that two powers agree to rule in cooperation. For instance, Britain and France agreed to establish a condominium over the archipelago of New Hebrides in the Pacific Ocean which lasted from 1906 to 1980 after which the territory became independent under the name of Vanuatu. This concept describes fairly well the win-win relation of cooperation that the Chinese government wishes to establish with the United States.

However, history suggests that relations of cooperation between two dominant powers have been rare. On the contrary, cases where two great powers came in conflict because they did not wish to share the leadership seem very common.

### Classic cases

A classic example is the case of Sparta and Athens, two major city-states in Greece who came into conflict in the Peloponnesian wars. The first one lasted fifteen years from -469 to -445 and the second lasted almost thirty years from -431 to -404. In these long conflicts, Athens held the role of a maritime power while Sparta was rather a continental power.

Also in the antiquity but two centuries later, the three Punic wars (-264 to -146) opposed two contenders for dominance in the western Mediterranean, namely the Roman republic and the Carthaginian Empire. Rome was a rapidly ascending power in Italy and after more than a hundred years and the loss of thousands of soldiers from both sides, Rome conquered Carthage's empire, completely destroyed the city, and become the most powerful state of the Western Mediterranean. It would keep that position for over four centuries in the west and until the 15th century for the eastern part of the empire.

### Endless rivalry in western Europe

In more recent times, a long series of wars (from 1754 to 1815) opposed France and Great Britain for dominance in western Europe. It is worth mentioning that these wars were already world wars because they extended to the colonial possessions of the two powers in North America, the Caribbean islands and India.

The first World War opposed Britain, France and Russia on the one hand to Austria-Hungary, Germany and Turkey on the other hand, once again for dominance in Europe.

### The special case of the UK submitting to US domination

Among western countries one case where dominance shifted from one power to an-
other without an open conflict was Britain and the United States. Britain had been the super-power of the 19th century although by no means to the same extent as the US is nowadays. It lost its economic dominance at the end of the 19th century and after 1945, it lost also its political dominance along with its colonial empire.

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>**Fig.** Flags of the kingdom of Hawaii. **Left:** Flag before the suppression of the monarchy by the US. The Union Jack in the upper corner was probably related to British help in restoring the monarchy. **Right:** Inverted flag used by groups of native Hawaiians.</figcaption></figure>

## Mild British reactions to the US take over of Hawaii

June 1887 was marked by the celebration of Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee (that is to say the 50th anniversary of her coronation) where monarchs from all over the world were invited. One of the invited guests was the king of Hawaii; this was not surprising because the kingdom of Hawaii had a close connection with Britain as attested by its flag which figured the Union Jack in one corner. The king sent his wife and princess Liliuokalani to represent him. On their way from Hawaii to Britain they visited Washington where they were received by President Grover Cleveland. In London Queen Victoria gave them an official audience at Buckingham Palace during which she recalled that King Kalakaua had already visited her in 1881.

However, at the same moment, on 30 June 1887 a new constitution (the so-called "bayon-net constitution") was imposed to the king by American businessmen supported by their militia. In an attempt to request help the king contacted the US Minister as well as the British, French and Japanese representatives but they all suggested that he should comply. Written by a group of Americans, the new constitution deprived the king of most of his power. It was never ratified by the Hawaiian Kingdom's legislature.

On 4 July 1894, the Republic of Hawaii was proclaimed by the same group of people connected to US planters. It was recognized by the US government as a protectorate in August 1894. In July British troops wanted to land in Hawaii for a drill but permission was refused to them (NYT 1 July 1894). On 20 July 1894 the New York Times announced that Britain was ready to discuss with the new Republic about a Reciprocity Treaty. This was an informal recognition.

In 1895 the deposed Queen Liliuokalani was tried by a military commission. Six of her supporters had already been sentenced to be hanged and their sentences were commuted only after the Queen signed her abdication. When Hawaii was eventually annexed in 1898 the Crown Lands which were quite considerable were seized by the United States government.
other without an open conflict was Britain and the United States. Britain had been the super-power of the 19th century although by no means to the same extent as the US is nowadays. It lost its economic dominance at the end of the 19th century and after 1945, it lost also its political dominance along with its colonial empire.

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>**Fig.** Flags of the kingdom of Hawaii. **Left:** Flag before the suppression of the monarchy by the US. The Union Jack in the upper corner was probably related to British help in restoring the monarchy. **Right:** Inverted flag used by groups of native Hawaiians.</figcaption></figure>

## Mild British reactions to the US take over of Hawaii

June 1887 was marked by the celebration of Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee (that is to say the 50th anniversary of her coronation) where monarchs from all over the world were invited. One of the invited guests was the king of Hawaii; this was not surprising because the kingdom of Hawaii had a close connection with Britain as attested by its flag which figured the Union Jack in one corner. The king sent his wife and princess Liliuokalani to represent him. On their way from Hawaii to Britain they visited Washington where they were received by President Grover Cleveland. In London Queen Victoria gave them an official audience at Buckingham Palace during which she recalled that King Kalakaua had already visited her in 1881.

However, at the same moment, on 30 June 1887 a new constitution (the so-called "bayon-net constitution") was imposed to the king by American businessmen supported by their militia. In an attempt to request help the king contacted the US Minister as well as the British, French and Japanese representatives but they all suggested that he should comply. Written by a group of Americans, the new constitution deprived the king of most of his power. It was never ratified by the Hawaiian Kingdom's legislature.

On 4 July 1894, the Republic of Hawaii was proclaimed by the same group of people connected to US planters. It was recognized by the US government as a protectorate in August 1894. In July British troops wanted to land in Hawaii for a drill but permission was refused to them (NYT 1 July 1894). On 20 July 1894 the New York Times announced that Britain was ready to discuss with the new Republic about a Reciprocity Treaty. This was an informal recognition.

In 1895 the deposed Queen Liliuokalani was tried by a military commission. Six of her supporters had already been sentenced to be hanged and their sentences were commuted only after the Queen signed her abdication. When Hawaii was eventually annexed in 1898 the Crown Lands which were quite considerable were seized by the United States government.
With regard to the competition between Britain and the US in the Pacific there was an interesting episode in 1887 and 1894. The account given in the Box shows that, although formally supporting the Hawaiian monarchy, Britain in fact did not really object to its suppression.

Did the British government not realize that the annexation of Hawaii would put the US in a dominant position in the Pacific? More likely, there may have been a tacit power sharing understanding. The Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea as well as the Indian Ocean would be in the British sphere of influence, whereas the Pacific Ocean (and especially its eastern part) would be in the US sphere of influence.

Additionally, it can also be observed that the annexation was carried out very cleverly in a step-by-step process: permission given to foreigners to buy land (1848), bayonet constitution (1887), suppression of the monarchy and US protectorate (1894) and finally annexation (1898).

Incidentally, it can be mentioned that a similar step-by-step course of action occurred in the annexation of:

* Texas: independence of a Texas Republic from Mexico in 1836 followed by annexation in 1845 which in turn led to the US-Mexican war of 1846-1848.

* California: independence of a California Republic from Mexico in June 1846 followed by annexation in 1848 in the wake of the US-Mexican war.

## Situation in eastern Asia

It seems that under the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) and the first part of the Qing dynasty (say 1644-1820) there were less major conflicts in eastern Asia than in Europe for no other country was in a position to challenge the leadership of China.

# Two different methods of analysis of conflicts

## Method 1: listing causes of conflict

When two countries seem to be on a collision course, the standard way to predict what will happen is to list the possible causes of friction and conflict. The problem is that, ranging from political to economic or military matters, there is an infinite (and indefinite) list of factors. Some are of cardinal importance whereas others are merely incidental and circumstantial. Moreover, the main difficulty is that once such a catalogue of sources of conflict has been set up, it is impossible to draw any conclusion unless one can rely on a well-defined model. Without such a model, drawing conclusions will be a subjective and arbitrary process. Let us illustrate this difficulty by an example.

A common cause of conflict is when two countries compete for leadership. The
With regard to the competition between Britain and the US in the Pacific there was an interesting episode in 1887 and 1894. The account given in the Box shows that, although formally supporting the Hawaiian monarchy, Britain in fact did not really object to its suppression.

Did the British government not realize that the annexation of Hawaii would put the US in a dominant position in the Pacific? More likely, there may have been a tacit power sharing understanding. The Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea as well as the Indian Ocean would be in the British sphere of influence, whereas the Pacific Ocean (and especially its eastern part) would be in the US sphere of influence.

Additionally, it can also be observed that the annexation was carried out very cleverly in a step-by-step process: permission given to foreigners to buy land (1848), bayonet constitution (1887), suppression of the monarchy and US protectorate (1894) and finally annexation (1898).

Incidentally, it can be mentioned that a similar step-by-step course of action occurred in the annexation of:

* Texas: independence of a Texas Republic from Mexico in 1836 followed by annexation in 1845 which in turn led to the US-Mexican war of 1846-1848.

* California: independence of a California Republic from Mexico in June 1846 followed by annexation in 1848 in the wake of the US-Mexican war.

## Situation in eastern Asia

It seems that under the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) and the first part of the Qing dynasty (say 1644-1820) there were less major conflicts in eastern Asia than in Europe for no other country was in a position to challenge the leadership of China.

# Two different methods of analysis of conflicts

## Method 1: listing causes of conflict

When two countries seem to be on a collision course, the standard way to predict what will happen is to list the possible causes of friction and conflict. The problem is that, ranging from political to economic or military matters, there is an infinite (and indefinite) list of factors. Some are of cardinal importance whereas others are merely incidental and circumstantial. Moreover, the main difficulty is that once such a catalogue of sources of conflict has been set up, it is impossible to draw any conclusion unless one can rely on a well-defined model. Without such a model, drawing conclusions will be a subjective and arbitrary process. Let us illustrate this difficulty by an example.

A common cause of conflict is when two countries compete for leadership. The
Seven-year War (1756-1763) and the Wars of the Revolution (1793-1915) were conflicts which opposed Britain and France for a leadership position not only in Europe but also in America and Asia. As a matter of fact, these wars were already world wars. Similarly the wars between France and the Austrian Empire opposed the two main powers of continental Europe. More recently, the Cold War was obviously a competition for world leadership between the US and the USSR.

However, in the decade 1940-1950 Britain ceded its world leadership to the United States without any open conflict. Quite on the contrary, to this day, Britain remains the closest ally of the United States. This example suggests that a specific cause of conflict can lead to very different outcomes depending upon the "circumstances". As such circumstances can be assessed in very different ways by various analysts, this approach will lead to subjective and untestable conclusions. In short, although at first sight it may appear as the most natural, this approach is unsatisfactory.

**Method 2: relying on previous episodes**

In a well known statement, the Greek general and historian Thucydides (-460 to -400) wrote:

> "I shall be satisfied if what I have written is useful for those who wish to know what happened in the past and, human nature being what it is, may well happen again".

A similar idea was expressed by Karl Marx in his essay entitled "The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon" (1852)

> "People make their own history, but they make it under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The traditions of all the dead generations burden, like a nightmare, the minds of the living."

In other words as an alternative method, Thucydides and Marx suggest to compile previous episodes and to use them as guides for the future.

At first sight such a method may seem tricky to implement. What episodes are we going to compare? On what criteria are we going to select and compare them? One should realize that astronomers of former times were facing the same difficulty. The movements they were observing in the sky were of many kinds: the Moon, the planets, satellites of Jupiter or Saturn, comets, stars. It would make no sense to compare orbits belonging to what we now know as being different families of objects.

In using this second method the crucial difference is that before trying to draw any conclusion we first wish to set up what can be called collections of similar events. For astrophysicists it became possible to really understand how stars work once they could rely on sets of observations respective to diverse families of stars: small versus
Seven-year War (1756-1763) and the Wars of the Revolution (1793-1915) were conflicts which opposed Britain and France for a leadership position not only in Europe but also in America and Asia. As a matter of fact, these wars were already world wars. Similarly the wars between France and the Austrian Empire opposed the two main powers of continental Europe. More recently, the Cold War was obviously a competition for world leadership between the US and the USSR.

However, in the decade 1940-1950 Britain ceded its world leadership to the United States without any open conflict. Quite on the contrary, to this day, Britain remains the closest ally of the United States. This example suggests that a specific cause of conflict can lead to very different outcomes depending upon the "circumstances". As such circumstances can be assessed in very different ways by various analysts, this approach will lead to subjective and untestable conclusions. In short, although at first sight it may appear as the most natural, this approach is unsatisfactory.

**Method 2: relying on previous episodes**

In a well known statement, the Greek general and historian Thucydides (-460 to -400) wrote:

> "I shall be satisfied if what I have written is useful for those who wish to know what happened in the past and, human nature being what it is, may well happen again".

A similar idea was expressed by Karl Marx in his essay entitled "The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon" (1852)

> "People make their own history, but they make it under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The traditions of all the dead generations burden, like a nightmare, the minds of the living."

In other words as an alternative method, Thucydides and Marx suggest to compile previous episodes and to use them as guides for the future.

At first sight such a method may seem tricky to implement. What episodes are we going to compare? On what criteria are we going to select and compare them? One should realize that astronomers of former times were facing the same difficulty. The movements they were observing in the sky were of many kinds: the Moon, the planets, satellites of Jupiter or Saturn, comets, stars. It would make no sense to compare orbits belonging to what we now know as being different families of objects.

In using this second method the crucial difference is that before trying to draw any conclusion we first wish to set up what can be called collections of similar events. For astrophysicists it became possible to really understand how stars work once they could rely on sets of observations respective to diverse families of stars: small versus
large, young versus old, red versus yellow and so on. Such a data set allows them to test their explanations. If one has observations for only one star no tests can be made. In other words, it is only by moving from data for a single event to data for a set of events, that it becomes possible to develop a *scientific* understanding.

In what follows we will illustrate the comparative approach by focusing on several facets which seem relevant for the question of the relationship between the United States and China.

From embargo to expanding bilateral trade

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. xa** Trade between China and the United States, 1941–1995. In its most restrictive form the US embargo on trade with China lasted from 1951 to 1971. According to official US data, the exports were strictly zero. Because zero cannot be represented on a graph with a log-scale, 0 was replaced by 0.8. For some reason, the imports from China were not altogether zero but fluctuated at very low levels; we replaced these random fluctuations by their annual average. The embargo was partly lifted in the wake of President Nixon's visit. However, after 1974 one observes a temporary fall in US exports which lasted until 1978; one wonders if it was somehow related to the resignation of President Nixon in August 1974; if so, it would suggest that his policy toward China was not well accepted. Sources: *Historical statistics of the United States* (1975, p.903,905), *Statistical Abstract of the United States* (various years).</figcaption></figure>

The fact that there was a trade embargo during the Korean War (1950-1953) is of course not surprising. However, when the Korean War ended, instead of being lifted or at least brought in line with the embargo on trade with other Communist countries it was made more restrictive. In the mind of Secretary of State John Foster Fulles the purpose of this policy was to raise popular discontentment in China that could lead to protests and to the dismiss of the Communist regime. At the same time, all
large, young versus old, red versus yellow and so on. Such a data set allows them to test their explanations. If one has observations for only one star no tests can be made. In other words, it is only by moving from data for a single event to data for a set of events, that it becomes possible to develop a *scientific* understanding.

In what follows we will illustrate the comparative approach by focusing on several facets which seem relevant for the question of the relationship between the United States and China.

From embargo to expanding bilateral trade

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. xa** Trade between China and the United States, 1941–1995. In its most restrictive form the US embargo on trade with China lasted from 1951 to 1971. According to official US data, the exports were strictly zero. Because zero cannot be represented on a graph with a log-scale, 0 was replaced by 0.8. For some reason, the imports from China were not altogether zero but fluctuated at very low levels; we replaced these random fluctuations by their annual average. The embargo was partly lifted in the wake of President Nixon's visit. However, after 1974 one observes a temporary fall in US exports which lasted until 1978; one wonders if it was somehow related to the resignation of President Nixon in August 1974; if so, it would suggest that his policy toward China was not well accepted. Sources: *Historical statistics of the United States* (1975, p.903,905), *Statistical Abstract of the United States* (various years).</figcaption></figure>

The fact that there was a trade embargo during the Korean War (1950-1953) is of course not surprising. However, when the Korean War ended, instead of being lifted or at least brought in line with the embargo on trade with other Communist countries it was made more restrictive. In the mind of Secretary of State John Foster Fulles the purpose of this policy was to raise popular discontentment in China that could lead to protests and to the dismiss of the Communist regime. At the same time, all
<figure><img src="image_16.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. xb** Trade between China and the United States, 1990–2016. From 1990 to 2016 mainland’s trade with the US was multiplied by 19 which represents an annual growth rate of 11.6% (multiplication by 2 in 6.6 years). After 1990 the trade with Taiwan appears to experience a sluggish growth; this is certainly due to the fact that Taiwan’s trade had experienced a very rapid growth in the decades before 1990; in the 16 years between 1965 and 1980 it was multiplied by 34. On a per capita basis in 1990 Taiwan’s trade with the US was 50 times higher than for the mainland. Sources: *China mainland and Hong Kong: US Bureau of the Census; China, Taiwan: Statistical Abstract of the United States, various years.*</figcaption></figure>

US allies were asked to follow the same rules. Two organizations called COCOM (“International Coordinating Committee on Strategic Trade with Communist Countries”) and CHINCOM were set up on the initiative of the US with the purpose to control the trade of the 17 US allies which were supposed to follow the same policy.

The China visit of President Nixon in 1972 did not end the embargo but it was brought in line with the rules which then applied to other Communist countries.

The graph shows clearly that low trade level was the effect of the US policy and not at all the wish of the Chinese leadership. On the contrary, both Premier Zhou Enlai and Chairman Mao wanted to develop trade. Actually, after the support of the
<figure><img src="image_16.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. xb** Trade between China and the United States, 1990–2016. From 1990 to 2016 mainland's trade with the US was multiplied by 19 which represents an annual growth rate of 11.6% (multiplication by 2 in 6.6 years). After 1990 the trade with Taiwan appears to experience a sluggish growth; this is certainly due to the fact that Taiwan's trade had experienced a very rapid growth in the decades before 1990; in the 16 years between 1965 and 1980 it was multiplied by 34. On a per capita basis in 1990 Taiwan's trade with the US was 50 times higher than for the mainland. Sources: *China mainland and Hong Kong: US Bureau of the Census; China, Taiwan: Statistical Abstract of the United States, various years.*</figcaption></figure>

US allies were asked to follow the same rules. Two organizations called COCOM (“International Coordinating Committee on Strategic Trade with Communist Countries”) and CHINCOM were set up on the initiative of the US with the purpose to control the trade of the 17 US allies which were supposed to follow the same policy.

The China visit of President Nixon in 1972 did not end the embargo but it was brought in line with the rules which then applied to other Communist countries.

The graph shows clearly that low trade level was the effect of the US policy and not at all the wish of the Chinese leadership. On the contrary, both Premier Zhou Enlai and Chairman Mao wanted to develop trade. Actually, after the support of the
Soviet Union began to dwindle in the wake of the visit of Premier Nikita Khrushchev to the USA in 1959, the economic situation of China became very difficult. That is probably why China welcomed the opening made by President Nixon even though the two countries were at that time still involved in the Vietnam War.

Fig. xb shows that in recent years the expansion of trade has slowed down. On average for the period 1990–2016 it was 10% per year, but between 2011 and 2016 it was only 2.3% on average. The same saturation effect had occurred for Taiwan: from 1965 to 1980 there was an annual growth rate of 24% but, as can be seen on the graph, after 1990 there was almost no further increase.

## Financial cooperation or competition?

Of course, no country will say openly that it does not wish to share leadership. In order to find out what is really the situation we must observe what is the real attitude of the US and China.

### The revealing case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

In this respect the creation of the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank” (AIIB) provides a test which is quite revealing.

The creation of this bank was proposed by the government of China in October 2014. It aims to support the building of infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region. As of May 2017 it had 52 member states while another 25 are prospective members. Among the 77 members and prospective members are almost all close allies of the United States (following the name of the county is the date of ratification or the date of prospective membership for a few recent members): Australia (Nov 2015), Bahrain (May 2017), Canada (Mar 2017), Israel (Jan 2016), the Philippines (Dec 2016), New Zealand (Dec 2015), Norway (Dec 2015), Qatar (Jun 2016), Saudi Arabia (Feb 2016), South Korea (Dec 2015), UK (Dec 2015).

The US and Japan are the only major powers which are not members.

The internationalization of the renminbi is another cause of contention as will be seen below.

### Integration of the RMB into IMF's SDR basket

Until 30 September 2016 only four currencies were represented in the “Special Drawing Rights” (a kind of international currency, see below) basket, namely the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. In order to allow the integration of the RMB with a share of 11% some of the pre-existing currencies had to accept a reduction of their own share.

The story of this integration is an interesting one, but before coming to that we must
Soviet Union began to dwindle in the wake of the visit of Premier Nikita Khrushchev to the USA in 1959, the economic situation of China became very difficult. That is probably why China welcomed the opening made by President Nixon even though the two countries were at that time still involved in the Vietnam War.

Fig. xb shows that in recent years the expansion of trade has slowed down. On average for the period 1990–2016 it was 10% per year, but between 2011 and 2016 it was only 2.3% on average. The same saturation effect had occurred for Taiwan: from 1965 to 1980 there was an annual growth rate of 24% but, as can be seen on the graph, after 1990 there was almost no further increase.

## Financial cooperation or competition?

Of course, no country will say openly that it does not wish to share leadership. In order to find out what is really the situation we must observe what is the real attitude of the US and China.

### The revealing case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

In this respect the creation of the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank” (AIIB) provides a test which is quite revealing.

The creation of this bank was proposed by the government of China in October 2014. It aims to support the building of infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region. As of May 2017 it had 52 member states while another 25 are prospective members. Among the 77 members and prospective members are almost all close allies of the United States (following the name of the county is the date of ratification or the date of prospective membership for a few recent members): Australia (Nov 2015), Bahrain (May 2017), Canada (Mar 2017), Israel (Jan 2016), the Philippines (Dec 2016), New Zealand (Dec 2015), Norway (Dec 2015), Qatar (Jun 2016), Saudi Arabia (Feb 2016), South Korea (Dec 2015), UK (Dec 2015).

The US and Japan are the only major powers which are not members.

The internationalization of the renminbi is another cause of contention as will be seen below.

### Integration of the RMB into IMF's SDR basket

Until 30 September 2016 only four currencies were represented in the “Special Drawing Rights” (a kind of international currency, see below) basket, namely the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. In order to allow the integration of the RMB with a share of 11% some of the pre-existing currencies had to accept a reduction of their own share.

The story of this integration is an interesting one, but before coming to that we must
<figure><img src="image_17.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.1** On 30 September 2016 the IMF celebrates the integration of the Chinese currency into special drawing rights currencies. Mu Jiashan, a contemporary master of Chinese art, presents a painting to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde who wears a traditional Chinese costume on the day when the IMF announced the launching of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket that includes the Chinese currency (RMB). The proposition had been approved by IMF officials and managing director on 15 November 2015 and then, on 30 November 2015, by the 24 executive directors of the IMF Board. It was Lagarde who promoted Zhu Min, a former Chinese central bank official, as a “Deputy Managing Director” at IMF. When Zhu retired in July 2016, another Chinese central banker, Zhang Tao, filled the position. Source: Xinhua News Agency.</figcaption></figure>

explain the function of the SDR

**Function of the SDR (Special Drawing Rights)**

Despite its weird name the SDR is a currency. Often when this role is to be emphasized it is denoted by its currency code XDR. The XDR was created in 1969, that is to say at a time when the US dollar was still indexed on gold (1 $=0.888g of gold) but was called into question outside the US. When the XDR was created there was no consensus about the role it should play (hence its weird name). The overall idea was to offer a way to increase the supply of money at a moment when the dollar was in short supply and no longer trusted. However, after the dollar was disconnected from gold, its supply could be increased at will and it became the reference currency worldwide, therefore making the XDR almost useless.

At this point it must be said that, as a currency, the XDR has severe limitations, for instance the fact that only central banks (as well as a number of other institutions) can hold it. This limitation prevented its use in connection with international trade. Being involved in only few transactions the XDR is a highly illiquid currency. For
<figure><img src="image_17.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.1** On 30 September 2016 the IMF celebrates the integration of the Chinese currency into special drawing rights currencies. Mu Jiashan, a contemporary master of Chinese art, presents a painting to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde who wears a traditional Chinese costume on the day when the IMF announced the launching of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket that includes the Chinese currency (RMB). The proposition had been approved by IMF officials and managing director on 15 November 2015 and then, on 30 November 2015, by the 24 executive directors of the IMF Board. It was Lagarde who promoted Zhu Min, a former Chinese central bank official, as a “Deputy Managing Director” at IMF. When Zhu retired in July 2016, another Chinese central banker, Zhang Tao, filled the position. Source: Xinhua News Agency.</figcaption></figure>

explain the function of the SDR

**Function of the SDR (Special Drawing Rights)**

Despite its weird name the SDR is a currency. Often when this role is to be emphasized it is denoted by its currency code XDR. The XDR was created in 1969, that is to say at a time when the US dollar was still indexed on gold (1 $=0.888g of gold) but was called into question outside the US. When the XDR was created there was no consensus about the role it should play (hence its weird name). The overall idea was to offer a way to increase the supply of money at a moment when the dollar was in short supply and no longer trusted. However, after the dollar was disconnected from gold, its supply could be increased at will and it became the reference currency worldwide, therefore making the XDR almost useless.

At this point it must be said that, as a currency, the XDR has severe limitations, for instance the fact that only central banks (as well as a number of other institutions) can hold it. This limitation prevented its use in connection with international trade. Being involved in only few transactions the XDR is a highly illiquid currency. For
years, its main use was as a reserve currency and even in this function it was of
marginal importance. As of January 2011, the XDR represented less than 4% of
global foreign exchange reserve assets<fnref n="10" />.

It is only in the wake of major financial crises that monetary experts remember the
existence of the XDR and consider increasing its role. The last time this happened
was in March 2009 that is to say at the height of the crisis which had started in Oc-
tober 2008. Not surprisingly, it was China which, through the voice of the chairman
of the “People’s Bank of China” (that is to say China’s central bank), voiced its dis-
pleasure at the current international monetary system. To be sure, China was not the
only country to be unhappy with a system in which the dollar played such a dominant
role for a dollarized world allowed the US to impose unilateral sanctions on foreign
countries (e.g. Iran or Russia) or foreign banks (e.g. the French bank “BNP-Paribas”
or the “Deutsche Bank”) just by threatening an embargo on their supply of dollars.
The situation could well be summarized in the words of an Irish folk song of the 19th
century:

"Our foes were united and we were divided.

We met and they scattered our ranks to the wind".

For changing a system that is used by such a large number of countries, there must
be a credible alternative. The introduction of the euro in 2002 may have been seen
as creating a possible alternative but this prospect had to be quickly dismissed on
account of the political weakness of the eurozone countries<fnref n="11" />.

The economic emergence of China created a second chance for an alternative. As it is easier to amend a system already in existence than to create a new one, China suggested an extension of the role of the XDR. As such a change might ultimately lead to creating an alternative to the dollar, one can understand that the US was against it<fnref n="12" />.

We can now return to the question of the integration of the RMB in the SDR basket.
The main role of this basket is to define the value of the XDR with respect to the
other currencies which belong to the SDR basket. The same system is used in many
countries. For instance, the Singapore dollar is valued with respect to a basket of
foreign currencies, except that in this case the composition of the basket is not made
public.

The SDR basket is re-evaluated only every 5 years, and the currencies included as

<footnote n="10">¹⁰Source: Wikipedia article entitled "Special drawing rights".</footnote>

<footnote n="11">¹¹As an illustration one can mention the following fact. In February 2017 the central banks of some 15 countries had publicly announced that they were holding RMB in their foreign currency reserves. Although this list included England, Hungary and Switzerland, it did not include the European Central Bank. Needless to say, neither did it include Japan or the United States. (Owen 2017)</footnote>

<footnote n="12">¹²It was of course also against an enlargement of the role of the euro. For more details on this point see Roehner (2015).</footnote>
years, its main use was as a reserve currency and even in this function it was of
marginal importance. As of January 2011, the XDR represented less than 4% of
global foreign exchange reserve assets<fnref n="10" />.

It is only in the wake of major financial crises that monetary experts remember the
existence of the XDR and consider increasing its role. The last time this happened
was in March 2009 that is to say at the height of the crisis which had started in Oc-
tober 2008. Not surprisingly, it was China which, through the voice of the chairman
of the “People’s Bank of China” (that is to say China’s central bank), voiced its dis-
pleasure at the current international monetary system. To be sure, China was not the
only country to be unhappy with a system in which the dollar played such a dominant
role for a dollarized world allowed the US to impose unilateral sanctions on foreign
countries (e.g. Iran or Russia) or foreign banks (e.g. the French bank “BNP-Paribas”
or the “Deutsche Bank”) just by threatening an embargo on their supply of dollars.
The situation could well be summarized in the words of an Irish folk song of the 19th
century:

“Our foes were united and we were divided.

We met and they scattered our ranks to the wind”.

For changing a system that is used by such a large number of countries, there must
be a credible alternative. The introduction of the euro in 2002 may have been seen
as creating a possible alternative but this prospect had to be quickly dismissed on
account of the political weakness of the eurozone countries<fnref n="11" />.

The economic emergence of China created a second chance for an alternative. As
it is easier to amend a system already in existence than to create a new one, China
suggested an extension of the role of the XDR. As such a change might ultimately
lead to creating an alternative to the dollar, one can understand that the US was
against it<fnref n="12" />.

We can now return to the question of the integration of the RMB in the SDR basket.
The main role of this basket is to define the value of the XDR with respect to the
other currencies which belong to the SDR basket. The same system is used in many
countries. For instance, the Singapore dollar is valued with respect to a basket of
foreign currencies, except that in this case the composition of the basket is not made
public.

The SDR basket is re-evaluated only every 5 years, and the currencies included as

<footnote n="10">¹⁰Source: Wikipedia article entitled “Special drawing rights”.</footnote>

<footnote n="11">¹¹As an illustration one can mention the following fact. In February 2017 the central banks of some 15 countries had publicly announced that they were holding RMB in their foreign currency reserves. Although this list included England, Hungary and Switzerland, it did not include the European Central Bank. Needless to say, neither did it include Japan or the United States. (Owen 2017)</footnote>

<footnote n="12">¹²It was of course also against an enlargement of the role of the euro. For more details on this point see Roehner (2015).</footnote>
well as the weights given to them can then be changed. The weights for former time intervals are shown in the table below.

<table><caption>Table 2.1 Weights of the 5 currencies which comprise the IMF's SDR basket</caption><thead><tr><th>Period</th><th>USD</th><th>DEM</th><th>FRF</th><th>JPY</th><th>GBP</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1981 – 1985</td><td>42.0%</td><td>19%</td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>USD</td><td>EURO</td><td>CNY</td><td>JPY</td><td>GBP</td></tr><tr><td>2011 – 2015</td><td>41.9%</td><td>37.4%</td><td>0%</td><td>9.4%</td><td>11.3%</td></tr><tr><td>2016 – 2020</td><td>41.7%</td><td>30.9%</td><td>10.9%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>8.1%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: USD=US dollar, DEM=German mark, FRF=French franc, JPY=Japanese yen, GBP=Great Britain pound, CNY=Chinese yen=renminbi.

Source: Wikipedia article entitled "Special drawing rights".

It can be seen that giving an 11% share to the RMB was made possible mainly by the reduction of the shares of the European currencies: the euro lost 6.5% and the British pound 3.2%. Besides, the Japanese yen lost 1.1%. The US dollar kept its former share almost unchanged.

## IMF case study illustrating the strength of US control

It is often said that, like many other international organizations set up in the wake of World War II, the IMF is dominated by the United States. However, little evidence is usually provided in support of this view. Here we describe one specific episode which illustrates how the IMF works. In particular it will demonstrate how the United States disposes of a veto right, if not formally, at least practically.

When one reads the press releases of the IMF one gets the impression that all decisions are taken by consensus on the basis of reports prepared by IMF staff writers. In short, it seems that political leverage plays no role. Closer examination reveals that this is rather a smoke screen.

In 2010 the executive board approved a plan whose purpose was to increase the voting power of emerging nations and in particular of China; under the plan the Chinese voting right would be increased from 3.8% to 6.1% and the one of India from 2.3% to 2.6%. That plan also included a doubling of the amount of funding available to the IMF for bail out purposes for instance for countries like Greece or Ukraine.

This plan could not be adopted and implemented without the agreement of the United States for the following reason. 85% of the Fund's voting power is required for any decision to pass but as the US holds 16.5% of the voting rights it enjoys a blocking minority which is equivalent to a veto right. Before the board director representing the US could cast his approval the plan had to be approved by the US Congress. It
well as the weights given to them can then be changed. The weights for former time intervals are shown in the table below.

<table><caption>Table 2.1 Weights of the 5 currencies which comprise the IMF's SDR basket</caption><thead><tr><th>Period</th><th>USD</th><th>DEM</th><th>FRF</th><th>JPY</th><th>GBP</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1981 – 1985</td><td>42.0%</td><td>19%</td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>USD</td><td>EURO</td><td>CNY</td><td>JPY</td><td>GBP</td></tr><tr><td>2011 – 2015</td><td>41.9%</td><td>37.4%</td><td>0%</td><td>9.4%</td><td>11.3%</td></tr><tr><td>2016 – 2020</td><td>41.7%</td><td>30.9%</td><td>10.9%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>8.1%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: USD=US dollar, DEM=German mark, FRF=French franc, JPY=Japanese yen, GBP=Great Britain pound, CNY=Chinese yen=renminbi.

Source: Wikipedia article entitled "Special drawing rights".

It can be seen that giving an 11% share to the RMB was made possible mainly by the reduction of the shares of the European currencies: the euro lost 6.5% and the British pound 3.2%. Besides, the Japanese yen lost 1.1%. The US dollar kept its former share almost unchanged.

## IMF case study illustrating the strength of US control

It is often said that, like many other international organizations set up in the wake of World War II, the IMF is dominated by the United States. However, little evidence is usually provided in support of this view. Here we describe one specific episode which illustrates how the IMF works. In particular it will demonstrate how the United States disposes of a veto right, if not formally, at least practically.

When one reads the press releases of the IMF one gets the impression that all decisions are taken by consensus on the basis of reports prepared by IMF staff writers. In short, it seems that political leverage plays no role. Closer examination reveals that this is rather a smoke screen.

In 2010 the executive board approved a plan whose purpose was to increase the voting power of emerging nations and in particular of China; under the plan the Chinese voting right would be increased from 3.8% to 6.1% and the one of India from 2.3% to 2.6%. That plan also included a doubling of the amount of funding available to the IMF for bail out purposes for instance for countries like Greece or Ukraine.

This plan could not be adopted and implemented without the agreement of the United States for the following reason. 85% of the Fund's voting power is required for any decision to pass but as the US holds 16.5% of the voting rights it enjoys a blocking minority which is equivalent to a veto right. Before the board director representing the US could cast his approval the plan had to be approved by the US Congress. It
turns out that for some reason the US Congress was not in a hurry to discuss the plan. In 2014 it was still waiting to be discussed in spite of the efforts of the Obama administration to bring it on the table. This long delay led several IMF members, and particularly Brazil, to start discussions aimed at finding a way out of this stalemate. The managing Director, Christine Lagarde, also set up a committee to find a solution. Eventually the US Senate approved the changes in December 2015 thus paving the way for the implementation of the reforms.

It is difficult to understand why the US Congress was reluctant to take up this dis-
cussion for it affected US interests only marginally by reducing the US voting right
from 16.7% to 16.5%. As long as this percentage would remain above 15% the USA
would continue to keep its virtual veto right.

In other words, it is clear that any reform which might really affect US interests, for
instance the extension and strengthening of the SDR advocated by China, will never
be allowed to pass by the US Congress.

Under the current organization<fnref n="13" />, China’s voting right of 6.09% is slightly below
Japan’s voting right of 6.16% which is of course not in line with the respective weight
of the two countries in international trade.

Economic facet of the power struggle

GDP growth

After 1815 and for about one century Great Britain was the super-power of the time. In spite of the fact that British hegemony never ever reached the level attained by US hegemony in the decades following 1945¹⁴. The emergence of Germany as a possible competitor was a source of concern for the British ruling class and also for the British Admiralty.

Economic growth was faster in Germany than in the UK. When taken together
Austria-Hungary and Germany represented in 1913 a bloc of 118 million people;
that is 2.6 times the population of the UK; their combined GDP was 1.4 times the
British GDP<fnref n="15" />. Fig. 2.2a,b show two things.

* Back in 1913 time was working against British dominance in Europe and in favor of German dominance. Although its political role was still small, the US was emerging as the economic world leader.

<footnote n="13">¹³IMF press release entitled “IMF executive directors and voting power, 19 May 2019.</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴For instance, the role of sterling in 19th century world trade was much less widespread than the worldwide trade dominance of the US dollar in the period after 1945. For more details about US hegemony in Europe one can read Roehner (2015)</footnote>

<footnote n="15">¹⁵It is true that the British colonies (which included India) had a population of over 350 millions and a GDP almost equal to the GDP of the UK; in contrast, the GDP of the German colonies was negligible.</footnote>
turns out that for some reason the US Congress was not in a hurry to discuss the plan. In 2014 it was still waiting to be discussed in spite of the efforts of the Obama administration to bring it on the table. This long delay led several IMF members, and particularly Brazil, to start discussions aimed at finding a way out of this stalemate. The managing Director, Christine Lagarde, also set up a committee to find a solution. Eventually the US Senate approved the changes in December 2015 thus paving the way for the implementation of the reforms.

It is difficult to understand why the US Congress was reluctant to take up this dis-
cussion for it affected US interests only marginally by reducing the US voting right
from 16.7% to 16.5%. As long as this percentage would remain above 15% the USA
would continue to keep its virtual veto right.

In other words, it is clear that any reform which might really affect US interests, for
instance the extension and strengthening of the SDR advocated by China, will never
be allowed to pass by the US Congress.

Under the current organization<fnref n="13" />, China’s voting right of 6.09% is slightly below
Japan’s voting right of 6.16% which is of course not in line with the respective weight
of the two countries in international trade.

Economic facet of the power struggle

GDP growth

After 1815 and for about one century Great Britain was the super-power of the time.
In spite of the fact that British hegemony never ever reached the level attained by
US hegemony in the decades following 1945¹⁴. The emergence of Germany as a
possible competitor was a source of concern for the British ruling class and also for
the British Admiralty.

Economic growth was faster in Germany than in the UK. When taken together
Austria-Hungary and Germany represented in 1913 a bloc of 118 million people;
that is 2.6 times the population of the UK; their combined GDP was 1.4 times the
British GDP<fnref n="15" />. Fig. 2.2a,b show two things.

* Back in 1913 time was working against British dominance in Europe and in favor of German dominance. Although its political role was still small, the US was emerging as the economic world leader.

<footnote n="13">¹³IMF press release entitled “IMF executive directors and voting power, 19 May 2019.</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴For instance, the role of sterling in 19th century world trade was much less widespread than the worldwide trade dominance of the US dollar in the period after 1945. For more details about US hegemony in Europe one can read Roehner (2015)</footnote>

<footnote n="15">¹⁵It is true that the British colonies (which included India) had a population of over 350 millions and a GDP almost equal to the GDP of the UK; in contrast, the GDP of the German colonies was negligible.</footnote>