<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 2.2a,b Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) (a) USA, UK and Germany (b) USA, China. (a) Over the 28 years 1885-1913 the average growth rates in the US, UK and Germany were 5.0%, 2.4% and 3.7% respectively. The r variable is the ratio GDP of UK divided by GDP of Germany. In 1913 the GDP of Austria-Hungary was 40% of the GDP of Germany which means that the combined GDP of Germany and Austria-Hungary was 1.4 times the British GDP. The exchange rates were as follows: 1 pound=4.87$, 1 pound=20.7mark. For the US the data refer to the national product rather than the domestic product but this makes little difference. (b) The decline in the GDP of China seen between 1985 and 1995 was due to a high inflation rate and to a substantial devaluation of the renminbi against the dollar. Sources: (a) *Historical Statistics of the United States* (1975), Liesner (1989). For Austria-Hungary the GDP figure comes from Broadberry et al. (2006).(b) US: Federal Reserve, Bank of St Louis, China: China Statistical Yearbook (CPI), websites “Trading Economics” (exchange rate), Chinability (GDP at current prices in RMB).</figcaption></figure>

• The GDP of China will probably surpass the US GDP around 2020. Clearly on the economic side time is working against US dominance.

## Foreign trade

As of 2016 the foreign trade of China was still largely dependent upon the United States and its close Japanese ally, a situation which made it vulnerable to a trade war (see Fig. 2.3).

## Role of the RMB in the bond market

Almost non existent in 2000 the Chinese RMB bond market was the world's largest in 2013 with a total of RMB 36 trillion ($5.8).

Even more importantly, in 2015 London started to issue bonds in RMB. Why is this of great importance? If other major countries issue RMB-denominated bonds Chinese authorities may hold such bonds without exchange rate risk. This would represent a significant improvement over holding US Treasury bonds that may lose value if the RMB appreciates against the US dollar.

## Chinese foreign direct investment

Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown from $10 billion in
<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.2a,b Growth of gross domestic product (GDP)** (a) USA, UK and Germany (b) USA, China. (a) Over the 28 years 1885-1913 the average growth rates in the US, UK and Germany were 5.0%, 2.4% and 3.7% respectively. The r variable is the ratio GDP of UK divided by GDP of Germany. In 1913 the GDP of Austria-Hungary was 40% of the GDP of Germany which means that the combined GDP of Germany and Austria-Hungary was 1.4 times the British GDP. The exchange rates were as follows: 1 pound=4.87$, 1 pound=20.7mark. For the US the data refer to the national product rather than the domestic product but this makes little difference. (b) The decline in the GDP of China seen between 1985 and 1995 was due to a high inflation rate and to a substantial devaluation of the renminbi against the dollar. Sources: (a) *Historical Statistics of the United States* (1975), Liesner (1989). For Austria-Hungary the GDP figure comes from Broadberry et al. (2006).(b) US: Federal Reserve, Bank of St Louis, China: China Statistical Yearbook (CPI), websites “Trading Economics” (exchange rate), Chinability (GDP at current prices in RMB).</figcaption></figure>

* The GDP of China will probably surpass the US GDP around 2020. Clearly on the economic side time is working against US dominance.

## Foreign trade

As of 2016 the foreign trade of China was still largely dependent upon the United States and its close Japanese ally, a situation which made it vulnerable to a trade war (see Fig. 2.3).

## Role of the RMB in the bond market

Almost non existent in 2000 the Chinese RMB bond market was the world's largest in 2013 with a total of RMB 36 trillion ($5.8).

Even more importantly, in 2015 London started to issue bonds in RMB. Why is this of great importance? If other major countries issue RMB-denominated bonds Chinese authorities may hold such bonds without exchange rate risk. This would represent a significant improvement over holding US Treasury bonds that may lose value if the RMB appreciates against the US dollar.

## Chinese foreign direct investment

Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown from $10 billion in
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.3 China: total foreign trade by country.** Total trade means exports+imports. The figures also include the trade which goes through Hong Kong. In the years immediately after 1997 the part of Hong Kong was significant but in 2015 it was much smaller; for instance for the trade with Japan it was only 10%. Perhaps the development of the “Silk Road” project will lead to an increase in the share of Asian countries but that will probably take several years. Source: “Comtrade” database of the United Nations.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.4 Share of central bank reserves of the pound sterling and dollar respectively.** The US GDP surpassed the GDP of Great Britain in 1872 but this was not of great significance because in addition to its domestic part, the economy of Great Britain also incorporated the vast British Empire. That is why world trade is a better indicator. In 1913 US exports surpassed British exports. Needless to say, by increasing indebtedness toward the United States, the two world wars damaged the international standing of the pound. Source: Chinn et al. (2008), Persaud (2004).</figcaption></figure>

2005 to $86 billion in 2013 that is to say at a rate of: $\exp(\log(86/10)/8) - 1 = 30\%$, in other words three times faster than the growth of GDP. In 2013, China was already the 6th largest outbound FDI investor.
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.3 China: total foreign trade by country.** Total trade means exports+imports. The figures also include the trade which goes through Hong Kong. In the years immediately after 1997 the part of Hong Kong was significant but in 2015 it was much smaller; for instance for the trade with Japan it was only 10%. Perhaps the development of the “Silk Road” project will lead to an increase in the share of Asian countries but that will probably take several years. Source: “Comtrade” database of the United Nations.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.4 Share of central bank reserves of the pound sterling and dollar respectively.** The US GDP surpassed the GDP of Great Britain in 1872 but this was not of great significance because in addition to its domestic part, the economy of Great Britain also incorporated the vast British Empire. That is why world trade is a better indicator. In 1913 US exports surpassed British exports. Needless to say, by increasing indebtedness toward the United States, the two world wars damaged the international standing of the pound. Source: Chinn et al. (2008), Persaud (2004).</figcaption></figure>

2005 to $86 billion in 2013 that is to say at a rate of: $\exp(\log(86/10)/8) - 1 = 30\%$, in other words three times faster than the growth of GDP. In 2013, China was already the 6th largest outbound FDI investor.
In the first quarter of 2017 Taiwan saw the 27th consecutive quarter of net capital outflows; this represents a time span of 6 years and 3 quarters. In Q1, 2017 Taiwanese invested US$2.6 billion abroad while foreign investors injected US$0.93 billion into the economy during the period. Although these figures represent only a few percent of the domestic investment which in 2015 was equal to $117 billions, they suggest that Taiwan is not seen as a promising investment place by foreigners.

## Replacement of the pound by the dollar as the main reserve currency

Fig. 2.4 shows that the dollar surpassed the pound as a reserve currency some 27 years after US exports surpassed British exports. Applying the same rule to the RMB case, one would expect the RMB to surpass the dollar as a reserve currency by 2013+27=2040. Needless to say, for the USD-RMB case many conditions are different which means that the 27 year interval should be seen as giving an order of magnitude, just as in physics. In other words, 27 years means that it should not be 5 years nor should it be 70 years.

If one wishes to discuss the respective conditions, the most important factor is probably the First World War. The replacement of the pound was certainly accelerated by the financial difficulties which accompanied the First World War. In other words 27 years is probably an under-estimate. Thus, one would rather expect the RMB-USD transition to occur in the decade 2040-2050.

For the dollar to get from a share of 40% to a share of 70% took about 50 years. Thus, the RMB may become the dominant reserve currency by 2100. Again, this figure should be seen as giving an order of magnitude in the sense of physics.

## The RMB as a trade currency

The reserve currencies hold by central banks are not the only measure of the role of a currency. Another indicator is the currency's share in financial and commercial transactions. One difficulty is the fact that it is not easy to distinguish financial and commercial transactions. For instance one might think that Foreign Exchange transactions are purely financial transactions. It is indeed true that a high percentage of them are short-term (within less than 1 day) speculative transactions but nevertheless some of them are done for the purpose of foreign trade. Moreover, in many big commercial transactions the buyer gets a loan for instance from the US Import-Export bank. Hence, once again, financial and commercial transactions are tightly connected.

Why is this distinction between “paper” transactions and “real” transactions important? In the speculative game of paper transactions the RMB plays a negligible role (less than 1%). On the contrary, in real trade it plays a significant role (over 10%). However, as it is difficult to make a clear distinction the whole picture remain some-
In the first quarter of 2017 Taiwan saw the 27th consecutive quarter of net capital outflows; this represents a time span of 6 years and 3 quarters. In Q1, 2017 Taiwanese invested US$2.6 billion abroad while foreign investors injected US$0.93 billion into the economy during the period. Although these figures represent only a few percent of the domestic investment which in 2015 was equal to $117 billions, they suggest that Taiwan is not seen as a promising investment place by foreigners.

## Replacement of the pound by the dollar as the main reserve currency

Fig. 2.4 shows that the dollar surpassed the pound as a reserve currency some 27 years after US exports surpassed British exports. Applying the same rule to the RMB case, one would expect the RMB to surpass the dollar as a reserve currency by 2013+27=2040. Needless to say, for the USD-RMB case many conditions are different which means that the 27 year interval should be seen as giving an order of magnitude, just as in physics. In other words, 27 years means that it should not be 5 years nor should it be 70 years.

If one wishes to discuss the respective conditions, the most important factor is probably the First World War. The replacement of the pound was certainly accelerated by the financial difficulties which accompanied the First World War. In other words 27 years is probably an under-estimate. Thus, one would rather expect the RMB-USD transition to occur in the decade 2040-2050.

For the dollar to get from a share of 40% to a share of 70% took about 50 years. Thus, the RMB may become the dominant reserve currency by 2100. Again, this figure should be seen as giving an order of magnitude in the sense of physics.

## The RMB as a trade currency

The reserve currencies hold by central banks are not the only measure of the role of a currency. Another indicator is the currency's share in financial and commercial transactions. One difficulty is the fact that it is not easy to distinguish financial and commercial transactions. For instance one might think that Foreign Exchange transactions are purely financial transactions. It is indeed true that a high percentage of them are short-term (within less than 1 day) speculative transactions but nevertheless some of them are done for the purpose of foreign trade. Moreover, in many big commercial transactions the buyer gets a loan for instance from the US Import-Export bank. Hence, once again, financial and commercial transactions are tightly connected.

Why is this distinction between “paper” transactions and “real” transactions important? In the speculative game of paper transactions the RMB plays a negligible role (less than 1%). On the contrary, in real trade it plays a significant role (over 10%). However, as it is difficult to make a clear distinction the whole picture remain some-
what uncertain.

# China surfs on a synergy wave

## Notion of products-synergy

The classical and neoliberal conceptions of economics are based on individualism and competition. They ignore the key-importance of synergy. What we have in mind is not only synergy between employees but also synergy between products. Engineers who wish to build new drone prototypes need a whole set of components: from lightweight materials to electronic sensors to engines and telecommunication devices. If they can buy them within one or two weeks instead of 2 or 3 months their work will progress five times faster. In China it is possible to order highly technical devices on TaoBao or AliBaba. This brings about a crucial *products-synergy*.

One of the co-authors (BR) experienced this on several occasions. Here are two examples.

* To repeat the Besnard cell experiment (a well known experiment in physics) we needed aluminum powder with a grain diameter not larger than 5 micrometers. It was not available on Taobao but we could find it on AliBaba. It is true that most of the AliBaba sellers were selling it by ton however by chance there was one company which was offering packages of 500 g. This was still 10 times more than what we needed but the price was so low that it was not an obstacle.

* For another experiment we needed a set of sieves with mesh sizes ranging from a few micrometers to a few millimeters. It was available on Taobao and was delivered within 3 days.

## Effect of products-synergy on economic growth

Products-synergy is not only crucial in engineering but in a broader way for economic growth. In a study of economic growth in China and industrialized countries (Baaquie et al. 2016) we compared labor productivity in agriculture and industry. In China, on average over 1990–2015, GDP/employee was 4 lower in agriculture than in the rest of the economy. This was expected and did not surprise us. However we were quite surprised to see that the two productivities increased at almost the same rate: 6.0% per year in agriculture versus 7.8% in the rest of the economy (i.e. a ratio of 1.3 instead of 4). No doubt this is the effect of synergy. As an illustration consider the introduction of mobile phones into Chinese villages. They will make detailed weather forecast available which will be quite important to optimize the working schedule; they will allow seeds, fertilizer or tools to be ordered faster and more easily. In other words agricultural productivity also benefits from the introduction of new devices even if the latter are not farming devices. This is how products-synergy
what uncertain.

# China surfs on a synergy wave

## Notion of products-synergy

The classical and neoliberal conceptions of economics are based on individualism and competition. They ignore the key-importance of synergy. What we have in mind is not only synergy between employees but also synergy between products. Engineers who wish to build new drone prototypes need a whole set of components: from lightweight materials to electronic sensors to engines and telecommunication devices. If they can buy them within one or two weeks instead of 2 or 3 months their work will progress five times faster. In China it is possible to order highly technical devices on TaoBao or AliBaba. This brings about a crucial *products-synergy*.

One of the co-authors (BR) experienced this on several occasions. Here are two examples.

* To repeat the Besnard cell experiment (a well known experiment in physics) we needed aluminum powder with a grain diameter not larger than 5 micrometers. It was not available on Taobao but we could find it on AliBaba. It is true that most of the AliBaba sellers were selling it by ton however by chance there was one company which was offering packages of 500 g. This was still 10 times more than what we needed but the price was so low that it was not an obstacle.

* For another experiment we needed a set of sieves with mesh sizes ranging from a few micrometers to a few millimeters. It was available on Taobao and was delivered within 3 days.

## Effect of products-synergy on economic growth

Products-synergy is not only crucial in engineering but in a broader way for economic growth. In a study of economic growth in China and industrialized countries (Baaquie et al. 2016) we compared labor productivity in agriculture and industry. In China, on average over 1990–2015, GDP/employee was 4 lower in agriculture than in the rest of the economy. This was expected and did not surprise us. However we were quite surprised to see that the two productivities increased at almost the same rate: 6.0% per year in agriculture versus 7.8% in the rest of the economy (i.e. a ratio of 1.3 instead of 4). No doubt this is the effect of synergy. As an illustration consider the introduction of mobile phones into Chinese villages. They will make detailed weather forecast available which will be quite important to optimize the working schedule; they will allow seeds, fertilizer or tools to be ordered faster and more easily. In other words agricultural productivity also benefits from the introduction of new devices even if the latter are not farming devices. This is how products-synergy
fosters economic growth.

## Products-synergy hubs seen as business incubators

The Silicon Valley effect can be seen as a spatial version of the products-synergy effect. A high density of information technology professionals produced a synergy effect. China has no Silicon Valley but many of its big cities are in the course of becoming business incubators for a variety of products, e.g. mobile phones, drones, high speed trains, electric cars, artificial intelligence applications<fnref n="16" /> and so on.

## Early Chinese technological breakthroughs

Currently (i.e. in June 2017) there are at least four major sectors in which China is the world leader.

1. **Mobile phones.** In a “New York Times” article (Mozur 2016) which is entitled “China, not Silicon Valley, is cutting edge in mobile tech” one reads: “The trope that China copies the US has not been true for years an in mobile it’s the opposite: the US often copies China”.

2. **High speed trains.** Such trains have been in existence for decades in Japan, France or Germany, but there has been little integrated international development. In contrast, several Asian countries have agreed to develop high speed trains in conjunction with China.

3. **Drones.** In the Wikipedia article entitled “Unmanned aerial vehicle” there is only one line about China which says: “As of 2016 China had exhibited many UAV designs, and its ability to operate them was beyond other countries”. This is probably due to the fact that most of the article was written several years ago. In an article published recently in “Forbes” (Joffe 2017) one reads “The first battle for dominance in the consumer drone market has played out, and China won.” As of 2014, the leading civil UAV companies were DJI (China) with $500m global sales, Parrot (France) with $110m and 3DRobotics (US) with $21.6m.

4. **Nuclear power plants.** Several innovative nuclear power plants are currently under construction in China. Although these plants are based on European and US designs it is highly likely that in coming decades China will buy the patents and develop its own designs just as was done for high speed trains.

Regarding nuclear power plants a comparison with Japan may be enlightening. In 1999, the US company Westinghouse sold its nuclear business to “British Nuclear Fuels Limited” (BNFL). Then, in February 2006 BNFL sold Westinghouse to the Japanese company Toshiba. At that point, Toshiba had only a 67% share. In Septem-

<footnote n="16">¹⁶There is currently much talk about artificial intelligence. This is not really new however. In the 1980s it was expected that the mythic Japanese “Ministry of International Trade and Industry” (MITI) would develop new human-like robots and computers. Thirty years later one must recognize that robots made little progress whereas automatic translation made some but is still unsatisfactory in many respects. May be artificial intelligence is just too challenging.</footnote>
fosters economic growth.

## Products-synergy hubs seen as business incubators

The Silicon Valley effect can be seen as a spatial version of the products-synergy effect. A high density of information technology professionals produced a synergy effect. China has no Silicon Valley but many of its big cities are in the course of becoming business incubators for a variety of products, e.g. mobile phones, drones, high speed trains, electric cars, artificial intelligence applications<fnref n="16" /> and so on.

## Early Chinese technological breakthroughs

Currently (i.e. in June 2017) there are at least four major sectors in which China is the world leader.

1. **Mobile phones.** In a "New York Times" article (Mozur 2016) which is entitled "China, not Silicon Valley, is cutting edge in mobile tech" one reads: "The trope that China copies the US has not been true for years an in mobile it's the opposite: the US often copies China".

2. **High speed trains.** Such trains have been in existence for decades in Japan, France or Germany, but there has been little integrated international development. In contrast, several Asian countries have agreed to develop high speed trains in conjunction with China.

3. **Drones.** In the Wikipedia article entitled "Unmanned aerial vehicle" there is only one line about China which says: "As of 2016 China had exhibited many UAV designs, and its ability to operate them was beyond other countries". This is probably due to the fact that most of the article was written several years ago. In an article published recently in "Forbes" (Joffe 2017) one reads "The first battle for dominance in the consumer drone market has played out, and China won." As of 2014, the leading civil UAV companies were DJI (China) with $500m global sales, Parrot (France) with $110m and 3DRobotics (US) with $21.6m.

4. **Nuclear power plants.** Several innovative nuclear power plants are currently under construction in China. Although these plants are based on European and US designs it is highly likely that in coming decades China will buy the patents and develop its own designs just as was done for high speed trains.

Regarding nuclear power plants a comparison with Japan may be enlightening. In 1999, the US company Westinghouse sold its nuclear business to "British Nuclear Fuels Limited" (BNFL). Then, in February 2006 BNFL sold Westinghouse to the Japanese company Toshiba. At that point, Toshiba had only a 67% share. In Septem-

<footnote n="16">¹⁶There is currently much talk about artificial intelligence. This is not really new however. In the 1980s it was expected that the mythic Japanese "Ministry of International Trade and Industry" (MITI) would develop new human-like robots and computers. Thirty years later one must recognize that robots made little progress whereas automatic translation made some but is still unsatisfactory in many respects. May be artificial intelligence is just too challenging.</footnote>
ber 2011, Toshiba bought 20% more from a minority stock holder.
Then, came a series of technical and accounting disasters.

* In December 2016 Toshiba revealed that its investment in Westinghouse could have a negative worth (it was bought for about $5 billion) due to cost overruns at 4 AP1000 nuclear reactors it was building in the US<fnref n="17" />. Paradoxically, a design objective of the AP1000 developed by Westinghouse-Toshiba was to be less expensive to build than other “Generation 3” reactors.

* On 29 March 2017 Toshiba's Westinghouse filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy leaving the 4 half-finished reactors in the southeastern US to an unknown fate. Westinghouse has a total debt of $9.8 billion. Toshiba itself had to sell one of its most valued business component to survive. The two reactors in Georgia had received from the Federal Government a $8.3 billion loan guaranty which means that if the loan cannot be repaid by Westinghouse this amount will be covered by the government.

* Interestingly, there are also 4 AP1000 Westinghouse reactors currently under construction in China. It will be interesting to compare the fates of the US and Chinese reactors. All four Chinese AP1000s were scheduled to be operational by 2016, but were over two years late. The “Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant” in Zhejiang Province is projected to be commissioned in late 2017. It will be the first AP1000 reactor to start operation worldwide.

<footnote n="17">¹⁷ A NYT article of 29 March 2017 made the following fairly vague statement that the projects are “three years late and billions over budget”.</footnote>
ber 2011, Toshiba bought 20% more from a minority stock holder.
Then, came a series of technical and accounting disasters.

* In December 2016 Toshiba revealed that its investment in Westinghouse could have a negative worth (it was bought for about $5 billion) due to cost overruns at 4 AP1000 nuclear reactors it was building in the US<fnref n="17" />. Paradoxically, a design objective of the AP1000 developed by Westinghouse-Toshiba was to be less expensive to build than other “Generation 3” reactors.

* On 29 March 2017 Toshiba's Westinghouse filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy leaving the 4 half-finished reactors in the southeastern US to an unknown fate. Westinghouse has a total debt of $9.8 billion. Toshiba itself had to sell one of its most valued business component to survive. The two reactors in Georgia had received from the Federal Government a $8.3 billion loan guaranty which means that if the loan cannot be repaid by Westinghouse this amount will be covered by the government.

* Interestingly, there are also 4 AP1000 Westinghouse reactors currently under construction in China. It will be interesting to compare the fates of the US and Chinese reactors. All four Chinese AP1000s were scheduled to be operational by 2016, but were over two years late. The “Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant” in Zhejiang Province is projected to be commissioned in late 2017. It will be the first AP1000 reactor to start operation worldwide.

<footnote n="17">¹⁷ A NYT article of 29 March 2017 made the following fairly vague statement that the projects are “three years late and billions over budget”.</footnote>
## Chapter 3
National activation in China and other countries

The notion of “national activation” can be seen as paralleling the momentum of a massive body like a truck or a ship in Newtonian mechanics. During a phase of national activation a country resolutely pushes ahead as new opportunities open for further expansion.

The concept of national activation was introduced in 2002 in “Pattern and Repertoire in History” (Roehner and Syme 2002). At the end of the chapter devoted to this notion there is in substance the following observation regarding South East Asia in the 21st century.

> In South East Asia several of the conditions for a process of national activation have been brought together, namely a strong increase in the resources of the state, rapid demographic growth, democratization allowing large layers of the population to participate in public debates. But this has not, for the moment translated into the type of national activation observed in Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries.

It seems that in the 15 years since 2002, several countries in South East Asia and particularly China and India have come closer to a state of national activation. Below we explain why it can be considered that China is currently in a phase of national activation. This should have important consequences regarding its foreign and defense policy.

First of all, however, we wish to attract the reader's attention on an important distinction between endogenous and exogenous factors.

### Endogenous vs. exogenous factors in national development

It is well known that the long history of China has been marked by a succession of phases of expansion followed by phases of contraction, separatism and sometimes even dislocation. However, it would be an oversimplification to think that the contraction phases resulted solely from internal factors. The example of the Qing dynasty shows this quite clearly.
## Chapter 3
National activation in China and other countries

The notion of “national activation” can be seen as paralleling the momentum of a massive body like a truck or a ship in Newtonian mechanics. During a phase of national activation a country resolutely pushes ahead as new opportunities open for further expansion.

The concept of national activation was introduced in 2002 in “Pattern and Repertoire in History” (Roehner and Syme 2002). At the end of the chapter devoted to this notion there is in substance the following observation regarding South East Asia in the 21st century.

> In South East Asia several of the conditions for a process of national activation have been brought together, namely a strong increase in the resources of the state, rapid demographic growth, democratization allowing large layers of the population to participate in public debates. But this has not, for the moment translated into the type of national activation observed in Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries.

It seems that in the 15 years since 2002, several countries in South East Asia and particularly China and India have come closer to a state of national activation. Below we explain why it can be considered that China is currently in a phase of national activation. This should have important consequences regarding its foreign and defense policy.

First of all, however, we wish to attract the reader’s attention on an important distinction between endogenous and exogenous factors.

### Endogenous vs. exogenous factors in national development

It is well known that the long history of China has been marked by a succession of phases of expansion followed by phases of contraction, separatism and sometimes even dislocation. However, it would be an oversimplification to think that the contraction phases resulted solely from internal factors. The example of the Qing dynasty shows this quite clearly.
## Expansion during the first half of the Qing dynasty

The Qing dynasty lasted 269 years from 1644 to 1912. In its first 70 years it was a successful expansionist dynasty. As one knows its last 70 years were much less successful. Yet, the efficiency of its internal organization was probably neither better nor worse than during the first decades. Yet, what a difference in terms of military success and expansion!

The Dzungar War (1687–1757) was a long conflict which opposed the Dzungar Khanate to the Qing dynasty and their Mongolian vassals. Qing victory ultimately led to the incorporation of Outer Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang into the Qing Empire.

## Contraction during the second half of the Qing dynasty

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.1** China, the cake of kings and emperors. In this political cartoon, Britain, Germany, Russia, France, and Japan are dividing China. William II of Germany is squabbling with Queen Victoria. The girl symbolizing France (i.e. so-called Marianne) is diplomatically shown as not participating in the carving and is depicted as close to Nicholas II, as a reminder of the Franco-Russian Alliance directed against Germany. Source: *Published in the French magazine "Le Petit Journal" (16 January 1898). Reproduced from the "French National Library" in the Wikipedia article entitled "Qing dynasty".*</figcaption></figure>

Less than one century later the very same Qing dynasty was defeated by Britain in the First Opium War (1839-1842) with the result that the Emperor had to accept the Treaty of Nanjing (1842). Through this treaty China ceded the island of Hong Kong to Britain in perpetuity and accepted the establishment of 5 treaty ports at Shanghai, Canton, Ningpo, Fuchow, and Amoy. France secured concessions on the same terms as the British, in treaties of 1843 and 1844.
## Expansion during the first half of the Qing dynasty

The Qing dynasty lasted 269 years from 1644 to 1912. In its first 70 years it was a successful expansionist dynasty. As one knows its last 70 years were much less successful. Yet, the efficiency of its internal organization was probably neither better nor worse than during the first decades. Yet, what a difference in terms of military success and expansion!

The Dzungar War (1687–1757) was a long conflict which opposed the Dzungar Khanate to the Qing dynasty and their Mongolian vassals. Qing victory ultimately led to the incorporation of Outer Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang into the Qing Empire.

## Contraction during the second half of the Qing dynasty

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.1** China, the cake of kings and emperors. In this political cartoon, Britain, Germany, Russia, France, and Japan are dividing China. William II of Germany is squabbling with Queen Victoria. The girl symbolizing France (i.e. so-called Marianne) is diplomatically shown as not participating in the carving and is depicted as close to Nicholas II, as a reminder of the Franco-Russian Alliance directed against Germany. Source: *Published in the French magazine "Le Petit Journal" (16 January 1898). Reproduced from the "French National Library" in the Wikipedia article entitled "Qing dynasty".*</figcaption></figure>

Less than one century later the very same Qing dynasty was defeated by Britain in the First Opium War (1839-1842) with the result that the Emperor had to accept the Treaty of Nanjing (1842). Through this treaty China ceded the island of Hong Kong to Britain in perpetuity and accepted the establishment of 5 treaty ports at Shanghai, Canton, Ningpo, Fuchow, and Amoy. France secured concessions on the same terms as the British, in treaties of 1843 and 1844.
## Drastic change in the strength of foreign forces

Between 1757 and 1842 the main change was not endogenous but consisted in the fact that the enemies of China were much stronger. We are told that the Dzungars used camel mounted miniature cannons in battle. That was fairly clever but probably much less effective than the big guns and long range rifles in use in western armies and navies. As one knows, the First Opium war was followed by several other western aggression wars, each of which made the Qing dynasty weaker.

In summary, although it may seem to be a convenient criterion, territorial changes should not be taken as the sole measure of the success of a dynasty. This can also be illustrated with the example of the Southern Song dynasty (1127–1279).

## Successes of the Southern Song dynasty

Although it lost control of the northern part of China as a result of its defeat in the Jin-Song Wars (1115–1234), the Southern Song dynasty was one of the most brilliant and innovative dynasties. It was marked by great inventions (e.g. gunpowder and the compass) and the development of maritime trade and explorations. For instance, the majority of the Chinese coins found in archaeological excavations conducted in Somalia and Tanzania are from the Song Dynasty.

## National activation

When one follows the history of various nations it appears that in most of them there are periods of social mobilization and national activation. More specifically, when a society ends the domination of the aristocracy and moves to an organization that allows large sections of the population to participate in the management of public affairs, a process takes place which increases social interaction and produces a state of national activation. History has shown that greater interaction usually results in greater social efficiency, self-confidence and innovation.

$$ \text{National activation} = \begin{cases} \text{New creed} \\ + \\ \text{Surge in self-confidence} \end{cases} $$

It has also been shown that one of the possible outlets for these new forces is territorial expansion.

There is no shortage of examples of this phenomenon. Several cases are mentioned
## Drastic change in the strength of foreign forces

Between 1757 and 1842 the main change was not endogenous but consisted in the fact that the enemies of China were much stronger. We are told that the Dzungars used camel mounted miniature cannons in battle. That was fairly clever but probably much less effective than the big guns and long range rifles in use in western armies and navies. As one knows, the First Opium war was followed by several other western aggression wars, each of which made the Qing dynasty weaker.

In summary, although it may seem to be a convenient criterion, territorial changes should not be taken as the sole measure of the success of a dynasty. This can also be illustrated with the example of the Southern Song dynasty (1127–1279).

## Successes of the Southern Song dynasty

Although it lost control of the northern part of China as a result of its defeat in the Jin-Song Wars (1115–1234), the Southern Song dynasty was one of the most brilliant and innovative dynasties. It was marked by great inventions (e.g. gunpowder and the compass) and the development of maritime trade and explorations. For instance, the majority of the Chinese coins found in archaeological excavations conducted in Somalia and Tanzania are from the Song Dynasty.

## National activation

When one follows the history of various nations it appears that in most of them there are periods of social mobilization and national activation. More specifically, when a society ends the domination of the aristocracy and moves to an organization that allows large sections of the population to participate in the management of public affairs, a process takes place which increases social interaction and produces a state of national activation. History has shown that greater interaction usually results in greater social efficiency, self-confidence and innovation.

$$ \text{National activation} = \begin{cases} \text{New creed} \\ + \\ \text{Surge in self-confidence} \end{cases} $$

It has also been shown that one of the possible outlets for these new forces is territorial expansion.

There is no shortage of examples of this phenomenon. Several cases are mentioned
<table><caption>Table 3.1 Some examples of periods of national activation in various countries</caption><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>Time period</th><th>Message</th><th>New Army</th><th>Territorial Expansion</th><th>Main leader</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sweden</td><td>1580 – 1700</td><td>Protestantism</td><td>Conscription</td><td>Baltic</td><td>Gustav I Vasa</td></tr><tr><td>England</td><td>1640 – 1680</td><td>Puritanism</td><td>Professional</td><td>Ireland</td><td>Oliver Cromwell</td></tr><tr><td>France</td><td>1789 – 1815</td><td>Citizens' rights</td><td>Conscription</td><td>Europe</td><td>Napoleon Bonaparte</td></tr><tr><td>Germany</td><td>1860 – 1918</td><td>Nationalism</td><td>Unified army</td><td>Europe</td><td>Otto von Bismark</td></tr><tr><td>China</td><td>1925 – 1950</td><td>Land reform</td><td>People's army</td><td>No</td><td>Mao Zedong</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: The time intervals in the second column are merely indicative for it is clear that such social mobilizations did not halt suddenly. In France, despite the military defeat of 1815, the revolutionary spirit continued to be alive as shown by the occurrence of the revolutions of July 1830 and February 1848. The latter spread to almost all European countries. Similarly, in China the revolutionary spirit outlived the victory in the civil war.

In spite of the fact that the 17th century Swedish army was already based on conscription this feature was still something new in 1789. By the expression “unified army” we mean that the German army was no longer split in regiments from Baden, Brandenburg, Saxony and other components of the Holy Roman Empire. The analogue in present time would be to move from NATO which is a collection of national components under US command to a true European Army.

in Table 3.1. One can mention Sweden and England in the 17th century. France in the wake of the Revolution of 1789, Germany in the period after the national unification of 1870, Japan in the post-Meiji era, Russia after the Revolution of 1917, Israel in the decades after its refoundation in 1947 or Russia in the 21st century. We will give more details about some of these cases in a short moment.

As observed above, whether or not territorial expansion is possible depends very much upon the international situation. For instance the expansion of Sweden between 1600 and 1709 was facilitated by the fact that it had many weak neighbors such as Estonia, Livonia, Latvia or Pomerania. Even if no territorial expansion is possible the state of national activation can be recognized by a number of other features.

1 Spreading a message

2 Increase in population

3 Spread of instruction.

4 Widespread interaction between people belonging to various social classes.

5 Fast economic development.

6 In many cases, armed forces who had previously relied on mercenaries started to employ citizens.

7 Territorial expansion

We will now take a closer look at these different aspects.

## Spreading a message

In order to gain momentum any social movement must rely on a gospel by which we
<table><caption>Table 3.1 Some examples of periods of national activation in various countries</caption><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>Time period</th><th>Message</th><th>New Army</th><th>Territorial Expansion</th><th>Main leader</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sweden</td><td>1580 – 1700</td><td>Protestantism</td><td>Conscription</td><td>Baltic</td><td>Gustav I Vasa</td></tr><tr><td>England</td><td>1640 – 1680</td><td>Puritanism</td><td>Professional</td><td>Ireland</td><td>Oliver Cromwell</td></tr><tr><td>France</td><td>1789 – 1815</td><td>Citizens' rights</td><td>Conscription</td><td>Europe</td><td>Napoleon Bonaparte</td></tr><tr><td>Germany</td><td>1860 – 1918</td><td>Nationalism</td><td>Unified army</td><td>Europe</td><td>Otto von Bismark</td></tr><tr><td>China</td><td>1925 – 1950</td><td>Land reform</td><td>People's army</td><td>No</td><td>Mao Zedong</td></tr></tbody></table>

Notes: The time intervals in the second column are merely indicative for it is clear that such social mobilizations did not halt suddenly. In France, despite the military defeat of 1815, the revolutionary spirit continued to be alive as shown by the occurrence of the revolutions of July 1830 and February 1848. The latter spread to almost all European countries. Similarly, in China the revolutionary spirit outlived the victory in the civil war.

In spite of the fact that the 17th century Swedish army was already based on conscription this feature was still something new in 1789. By the expression “unified army” we mean that the German army was no longer split in regiments from Baden, Brandenburg, Saxony and other components of the Holy Roman Empire. The analogue in present time would be to move from NATO which is a collection of national components under US command to a true European Army.

in Table 3.1. One can mention Sweden and England in the 17th century. France in the wake of the Revolution of 1789, Germany in the period after the national unification of 1870, Japan in the post-Meiji era, Russia after the Revolution of 1917, Israel in the decades after its refoundation in 1947 or Russia in the 21st century. We will give more details about some of these cases in a short moment.

As observed above, whether or not territorial expansion is possible depends very much upon the international situation. For instance the expansion of Sweden between 1600 and 1709 was facilitated by the fact that it had many weak neighbors such as Estonia, Livonia, Latvia or Pomerania. Even if no territorial expansion is possible the state of national activation can be recognized by a number of other features.

1 Spreading a message

2 Increase in population

3 Spread of instruction.

4 Widespread interaction between people belonging to various social classes.

5 Fast economic development.

6 In many cases, armed forces who had previously relied on mercenaries started to employ citizens.

7 Territorial expansion

We will now take a closer look at these different aspects.

## Spreading a message

In order to gain momentum any social movement must rely on a gospel by which we
mean a message in which the participants believe and that they may try to spread to neighboring areas. Gospel is of course a religious term and in some time periods the message took indeed the form of a religious movement, e.g. Christianity or some of its special creeds such as Protestantism or Puritanism, but it can also be a political message such as the rights of citizens after 1789 in France, Communism after 1917 in Russia or people's (and especially farmer's) rights in the Chinese Revolution of 1925-1949.

In the history of mankind there have been hundreds of peasant revolts. To our best knowledge they were all crushed, the only exception being the uprising led by the Communists in China<fnref n="18" />.

Yet, as is well known, their opponents of the Kuomintang did not call them “Communists” nor “peasants” but “bandits”.

In the second half of the 20th century, the neoliberal gospel has spread from the US to all western countries, and even to some extent to China. In contrast with the gospels of the French, Russian or Chinese revolutions this gospel did not spread among common people but among economists, business people, lawmakers, or media groups.

In world history the spread of gospels represents a phenomenon of great importance. It would be of great importance to understand what are the key parameters which control it.

## Population increase

Population estimates suggest that in 1840 the population of China numbered 412 millions (Ho 1959). If this figure is correct, it means that in the 113 years between 1840 and 1953 (year of the first census) the growth rate was $(694 - 412)/(412 \times 113) = 0.60\%$. Then, in the 63 years from 1953 to 2015 it became $(1382 - 694)/(694 \times 63) = 1.57\%$. Despite the one child policy the growth was 2.6 times faster (see Fig. 2.2)

A similar effect can be observed in France after the Revolution of 1789. Between 1740 and 1792 the population increased from 24.6 million to 28 million (Wikipedia article entitled “Demographics of France”) which represents an average annual rate of $(28 - 24.6)/(24.6 \times 53) = 0.26\%$. Then, from 1792 to 1846, it increased from 28.0 to 36.1 that is at a rate of 0.54%. One might think that this was due to improvements in healthcare, but in the following 50 years the increase was from 36.1 million to only 39.9 which is a rate of 0.19%. Thus, in the 50 years following the Revolution, despite the wars, the population growth rate was about twice as fast as before 1789

<footnote n="18">¹⁸A partial list is given in the Wikipedia article entitled “List of peasant revolts”. In this list some revolts are marked as having been successful. However when one reads the corresponding accounts one realizes that they were not successful by themselves but only by supporting the appropriate contender in a civil war. The French peasants who burned castles in 1789 were in a sense successful but only because the nobility was swept from power by the uprising in Paris. Incidentally, the Communist uprising in China is *not* mentioned in the Wikipedia list.</footnote>
mean a message in which the participants believe and that they may try to spread to neighboring areas. Gospel is of course a religious term and in some time periods the message took indeed the form of a religious movement, e.g. Christianity or some of its special creeds such as Protestantism or Puritanism, but it can also be a political message such as the rights of citizens after 1789 in France, Communism after 1917 in Russia or people's (and especially farmer's) rights in the Chinese Revolution of 1925-1949.

In the history of mankind there have been hundreds of peasant revolts. To our best knowledge they were all crushed, the only exception being the uprising led by the Communists in China<fnref n="18" />.

Yet, as is well known, their opponents of the Kuomintang did not call them “Communists” nor “peasants” but “bandits”.

In the second half of the 20th century, the neoliberal gospel has spread from the US to all western countries, and even to some extent to China. In contrast with the gospels of the French, Russian or Chinese revolutions this gospel did not spread among common people but among economists, business people, lawmakers, or media groups.

In world history the spread of gospels represents a phenomenon of great importance. It would be of great importance to understand what are the key parameters which control it.

## Population increase

Population estimates suggest that in 1840 the population of China numbered 412 millions (Ho 1959). If this figure is correct, it means that in the 113 years between 1840 and 1953 (year of the first census) the growth rate was $(694 - 412)/(412 \times 113) = 0.60\%$. Then, in the 63 years from 1953 to 2015 it became $(1382 - 694)/(694 \times 63) = 1.57\%$. Despite the one child policy the growth was 2.6 times faster (see Fig. 2.2)

A similar effect can be observed in France after the Revolution of 1789. Between 1740 and 1792 the population increased from 24.6 million to 28 million (Wikipedia article entitled “Demographics of France”) which represents an average annual rate of $(28 - 24.6)/(24.6 \times 53) = 0.26\%$. Then, from 1792 to 1846, it increased from 28.0 to 36.1 that is at a rate of 0.54%. One might think that this was due to improvements in healthcare, but in the following 50 years the increase was from 36.1 million to only 39.9 which is a rate of 0.19%. Thus, in the 50 years following the Revolution, despite the wars, the population growth rate was about twice as fast as before 1789

<footnote n="18">¹⁸A partial list is given in the Wikipedia article entitled “List of peasant revolts”. In this list some revolts are marked as having been successful. However when one reads the corresponding accounts one realizes that they were not successful by themselves but only by supporting the appropriate contender in a civil war. The French peasants who burned castles in 1789 were in a sense successful but only because the nobility was swept from power by the uprising in Paris. Incidentally, the Communist uprising in China is *not* mentioned in the Wikipedia list.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_22.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.2 Growth of the population of China and the United States.** Whereas the growth of the Chinese population was endogenous, in the US immigration played an essential role. Before 1945 the immigrants came mostly from Europe; after 1960 they came mostly from Mexico. Sources: *Wikipedia articles entitled "Demographics of China"* and *"Demographic history of the United States"*.</figcaption></figure>

and after 1846.

## Spread of instruction

A spread of instruction resulting in a fast increase in the percentage of people able to read and write. happened in China after 1949 (see Fig. 2.3).

After the success of the Revolution in 1949 and even before 1949 in the liberated areas the literacy campaign wished to educate not only the school age children but also adults. For that purpose children were told by their schoolmaster to teach their parents every day one new character. In other words, the children became themselves schoolmasters within their own family or village. In this way, as shown in Fig. 3.3, progress was fairly fast. If there are physicists among our readers they may observe that this mechanism is similar to the phenomenon of ferromagnetism. In ferromagnetism each atom located in the magnetic field of an external magnet becomes itself a little magnet. The contributions of all these little virtual magnets add together and create an internal magnetic field which is usually much stronger than the initial field. Replacing "magnetic field" by "teaching" we see that each schoolboy and schoolgirl became a little magnet in its own. As a result, the teaching of the schoolmaster was strongly amplified.

One decade later a fairly similar method was used in Cuba after Fidel Castro came
<figure><img src="image_22.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.2 Growth of the population of China and the United States.** Whereas the growth of the Chinese population was endogenous, in the US immigration played an essential role. Before 1945 the immigrants came mostly from Europe; after 1960 they came mostly from Mexico. Sources: *Wikipedia articles entitled “Demographics of China”* and *“Demographic history of the United States”*.</figcaption></figure>

and after 1846.

## Spread of instruction

A spread of instruction resulting in a fast increase in the percentage of people able to read and write. happened in China after 1949 (see Fig. 2.3).

After the success of the Revolution in 1949 and even before 1949 in the liberated areas the literacy campaign wished to educate not only the school age children but also adults. For that purpose children were told by their schoolmaster to teach their parents every day one new character. In other words, the children became themselves schoolmasters within their own family or village. In this way, as shown in Fig. 3.3, progress was fairly fast. If there are physicists among our readers they may observe that this mechanism is similar to the phenomenon of ferromagnetism. In ferromagnetism each atom located in the magnetic field of an external magnet becomes itself a little magnet. The contributions of all these little virtual magnets add together and create an internal magnetic field which is usually much stronger than the initial field. Replacing “magnetic field” by “teaching” we see that each schoolboy and schoolgirl became a little magnet in its own. As a result, the teaching of the schoolmaster was strongly amplified.

One decade later a fairly similar method was used in Cuba after Fidel Castro came
<figure><img src="image_23.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.3a** Illiteracy percentage in the whole population over 15. Officially, in Communist China literacy was defined as the ability to recognize 1,500 characters. Sources: Jan (1964), Peterson (1994), Tempest (1997), http://www.asianinfo.org/asianinfo/china/pro-education.htm, http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch-china/edu-education</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.3b** Illiteracy rate for age group of school age. The upper horizontal scale is for France. With this metric the fall can become much faster than by taking into account the whole population. Sources: See Fig. 3.3a.</figcaption></figure>

to power in 1960. Cuban rural illiteracy was at that time as high as 42% but it fell rapidly to less than 5%. If one wants to judge the success of a political regime education may be a better criterion than GDP per capita for it is clear that the US embargo which lasted from 1960 to 2015 was a serious obstacle for the economic
<figure><img src="image_23.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.3a** Illiteracy percentage in the whole population over 15. Officially, in Communist China literacy was defined as the ability to recognize 1,500 characters. Sources: Jan (1964), Peterson (1994), Tempest (1997), http://www.asianinfo.org/asianinfo/china/pro-education.htm, http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch-china/edu-education</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.3b** Illiteracy rate for age group of school age. The upper horizontal scale is for France. With this metric the fall can become much faster than by taking into account the whole population. Sources: See Fig. 3.3a.</figcaption></figure>

to power in 1960. Cuban rural illiteracy was at that time as high as 42% but it fell rapidly to less than 5%. If one wants to judge the success of a political regime education may be a better criterion than GDP per capita for it is clear that the US embargo which lasted from 1960 to 2015 was a serious obstacle for the economic
development of Cuba.

## Interaction surge

### Removal of social barriers

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.4 Increasing interaction by removing barriers** The increase in interaction may happen in two ways:</figcaption></figure>

(i) Top: Removal of the social barrier between two social groups whose individuals are represented by the blue and green dots; in this case $n = 3$. For instance in France and China before their respective revolutions there were rigid barriers between rich and common people.

(ii) Bottom: Removal of social barriers and in addition relocation of the blue and green individuals in a way which brings them closer to one another; an illustration is the process of rural flight which brings villagers into cities. In this second case there are not only more links but the blue-green links become stronger. A physical parallel is the mixing of water and ethanol (i.e. alcohol). In the mixture the water molecules establish new links with the ethanol molecules. This process results in a substantial release of heat which in turn increases the temperature of the mixture by 4 or 5 degrees, an observation that everyone can easily repeat and verify.

Before 1949 there was a deep divide in the Chinese population between the peasant majority and a minority of landowners and business people. The situation was similar to the division which existed in France between the nobility and the common people. In both cases removing this separation increased inter-individual interaction. Here is a simple illustration.

Contrary to the English language which has only one form to address someone else, namely “you”, in French there are two forms: “tu” which is used for friends and “vous” which is for persons whom one does not know well. After the Revolution of 1789, the “vous” form was abolished. Thus, at least for a few years, a soldier would say “Comment vas-tu citoyen General?” [How are you doing citizen General?]. This language change reveals a will to eliminate the partitions existing between people.
development of Cuba.

## Interaction surge

### Removal of social barriers

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.4 Increasing interaction by removing barriers** The increase in interaction may happen in two ways:</figcaption></figure>

(i) Top: Removal of the social barrier between two social groups whose individuals are represented by the blue and green dots; in this case $n = 3$. For instance in France and China before their respective revolutions there were rigid barriers between rich and common people.

(ii) Bottom: Removal of social barriers and in addition relocation of the blue and green individuals in a way which brings them closer to one another; an illustration is the process of rural flight which brings villagers into cities. In this second case there are not only more links but the blue-green links become stronger. A physical parallel is the mixing of water and ethanol (i.e. alcohol). In the mixture the water molecules establish new links with the ethanol molecules. This process results in a substantial release of heat which in turn increases the temperature of the mixture by 4 or 5 degrees, an observation that everyone can easily repeat and verify.

Before 1949 there was a deep divide in the Chinese population between the peasant majority and a minority of landowners and business people. The situation was similar to the division which existed in France between the nobility and the common people. In both cases removing this separation increased inter-individual interaction. Here is a simple illustration.

Contrary to the English language which has only one form to address someone else, namely “you”, in French there are two forms: “tu” which is used for friends and “vous” which is for persons whom one does not know well. After the Revolution of 1789, the “vous” form was abolished. Thus, at least for a few years, a soldier would say “Comment vas-tu citoyen General?” [How are you doing citizen General?]. This language change reveals a will to eliminate the partitions existing between people.
The figure shows that this process can take two forms. In the first the spatial locations do not change which means that villagers have more rights but remain in their villages. In the second, the distances between the blue and green dots decreases. This corresponds to the case of rural flight that is to say when villagers move into cities. This case is similar to what happens when water and alcohol molecules are mixed together in the same container.

## The case of the Cultural Revolution

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.5 Infant mortality in China and in the US.** The upper and lower dashed lines represent the rural and urban population respectively. Given the composition of the Chinese population it is not surprising that the global curve is close to the rural curve. There was (and still is) an important gap between rural and urban areas. From 1950 to 1990 we do not have separate data, but the curves after 1990 clearly show that the one for rural areas is quite close to the global one; this is of course natural because in those years the rural population outnumbered the urban population. Thus, the graph shows that from 1950 to 1965 the rural rate hardly fell.</figcaption></figure>

*Sources:* China, 1950-1990: Knoema website (a search engine specialized in databases); China, 1990-2014: China Statistical Yearbook; USA, 1950-2014: National Vital Statistics Reports 65,4,30 June 2016.

Even today (2017) that is to say 50 years after the events, the Cultural Revolution remains a controversial and sensitive topic. There are several theories about why and how it was started. According to some it was a power struggle at the top (but then
The figure shows that this process can take two forms. In the first the spatial locations do not change which means that villagers have more rights but remain in their villages. In the second, the distances between the blue and green dots decreases. This corresponds to the case of rural flight that is to say when villagers move into cities. This case is similar to what happens when water and alcohol molecules are mixed together in the same container.

## The case of the Cultural Revolution

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.5 Infant mortality in China and in the US.** The upper and lower dashed lines represent the rural and urban population respectively. Given the composition of the Chinese population it is not surprising that the global curve is close to the rural curve. There was (and still is) an important gap between rural and urban areas. From 1950 to 1990 we do not have separate data, but the curves after 1990 clearly show that the one for rural areas is quite close to the global one; this is of course natural because in those years the rural population outnumbered the urban population. Thus, the graph shows that from 1950 to 1965 the rural rate hardly fell.</figcaption></figure>

*Sources:* China, 1950-1990: Knoema website (a search engine specialized in databases); China, 1990-2014: China Statistical Yearbook; USA, 1950-2014: National Vital Statistics Reports 65,4,30 June 2016.

Even today (2017) that is to say 50 years after the events, the Cultural Revolution remains a controversial and sensitive topic. There are several theories about why and how it was started. According to some it was a power struggle at the top (but then
why did it last so long), according to others it was because Chairman Mao wanted to
bridge the wide gap which still existed between cities and countryside, particularly
in terms of health care<fnref n="19" />. Still others say that it was an attempt to get rid of the
bureaucracy of the party elite. According to the following excerpt (4 April 2017
entitled “Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and the Mao factor”) this seems to be the view
held by the American TV network CNN.

The Cultural Revolution movement began as Mao called on the masses to topple
a corrupt power structure dominated by party elites, but it ended up paralyzing
China for a decade.

Did it really paralyze China for a decade?

* It is true that, as shown by the graph, the GDP of China fell in 1967 and 1968 but from 1969 to 1971 it grew at an average annual rate of 14.4%, quite a remarkable performance for a supposedly disorganized and paralyzed country. On average from 1966 to 1973 the GDP grew at an annual rate of 7.0%.

* One may also recall that China exploded its first hydrogen bomb on 17 June 1967, that is to say at the height of the Cultural Revolution, and launched its first satellite on 24 April 1970.

In short, the claim about the chaos brought about by the Cultural Revolution seems
somewhat exaggerated.

The Cultural Revolution had many aspects. Here we will be interested only in one of
them namely the fact that students and intellectuals were sent to spend several months
(sometimes a few years) in villages. Clearly this was an attempt to close the gap
between cities and countryside where, at that time, 75% of the Chinese population
was still living.

If we had a method for measuring social cohesion before and after the Cultural Rev-
olution it would be interesting to see if it increased or decreased.

An indirect indicator is infant mortality, that is to say the death rate of babies be-
tween birth and the age of one year. This indicator is considered to reflect not only
the quality of healthcare but also of living conditions. The graph shows that infant
mortality decreased at a much faster rate during the Cultural Revolution than in the
17 years from 1950 until 1966. This suggests that the attempt to reduce the gap
between countryside and cities was successful at least to some extent.

***Rural flight*** Some 20 years after the beginning of the Cultural Revolution villagers started to move massively toward the cities. Clearly, this was a radical way to close the rural-urban divide. This migration created many large cities to the point that presently a city of 10 millions is considered in China as a medium-size city; this

<footnote n="19">¹⁹As doctors preferred to work and live in cities rather than in the countryside healthcare had improved very little there.</footnote>
why did it last so long), according to others it was because Chairman Mao wanted to
bridge the wide gap which still existed between cities and countryside, particularly
in terms of health care<fnref n="19" />. Still others say that it was an attempt to get rid of the
bureaucracy of the party elite. According to the following excerpt (4 April 2017
entitled “Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and the Mao factor”) this seems to be the view
held by the American TV network CNN.

The Cultural Revolution movement began as Mao called on the masses to topple
a corrupt power structure dominated by party elites, but it ended up paralyzing
China for a decade.

Did it really paralyze China for a decade?

* It is true that, as shown by the graph, the GDP of China fell in 1967 and 1968 but from 1969 to 1971 it grew at an average annual rate of 14.4%, quite a remarkable performance for a supposedly disorganized and paralyzed country. On average from 1966 to 1973 the GDP grew at an annual rate of 7.0%.

* One may also recall that China exploded its first hydrogen bomb on 17 June 1967, that is to say at the height of the Cultural Revolution, and launched its first satellite on 24 April 1970.

In short, the claim about the chaos brought about by the Cultural Revolution seems
somewhat exaggerated.

The Cultural Revolution had many aspects. Here we will be interested only in one of
them namely the fact that students and intellectuals were sent to spend several months
(sometimes a few years) in villages. Clearly this was an attempt to close the gap
between cities and countryside where, at that time, 75% of the Chinese population
was still living.

If we had a method for measuring social cohesion before and after the Cultural Rev-
olution it would be interesting to see if it increased or decreased.

An indirect indicator is infant mortality, that is to say the death rate of babies be-
tween birth and the age of one year. This indicator is considered to reflect not only
the quality of healthcare but also of living conditions. The graph shows that infant
mortality decreased at a much faster rate during the Cultural Revolution than in the
17 years from 1950 until 1966. This suggests that the attempt to reduce the gap
between countryside and cities was successful at least to some extent.

***Rural flight*** Some 20 years after the beginning of the Cultural Revolution villagers started to move massively toward the cities. Clearly, this was a radical way to close the rural-urban divide. This migration created many large cities to the point that presently a city of 10 millions is considered in China as a medium-size city; this

<footnote n="19">¹⁹As doctors preferred to work and live in cities rather than in the countryside healthcare had improved very little there.</footnote>
stands in contrast with the United States where New York is the only city with a population over 10 millions. Not surprisingly, together with the development of automobile circulation, such high population densities also led to pollution problems. It will be interesting to see whether in the coming decade this problem will be solved or not.

## Fast economic development

Fig. 3.6 shows that in the 67 years between 1950 and 2016 the real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) GDP of China was multiplied by 100 which corresponds to an average annual rate of $r = \exp[(\ln 100)/67] - 1 = 7.3\%$. This chart also shows a remarkable continuity between the pre- and post-opening era. It can be observed that for all its turmoil the Cultural Revolution had in fact little influence on the economy except in 1967–1968.

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.6** Growth of the inflation adjusted “Gross Domestic Product” (i.e. real GDP) of China, the US and the USSR. The three curves are indexes in the sense that they start from 1 in 1952; this in order to make the comparison easier. Otherwise, they are defined as the real GDP that is to say the current GDP divided by the consumer price index. It fell markedly in 1960-1961 after the failure of the “Great Leap Forward” and the food scarcity which resulted in some provinces. In 1967-1968, probably as a result of the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese GDP fell again (at an average annual rate of 4.9%) but in 1969-1971 it increased at an annual average rate of 14.4%. After 1991, in spite (or perhaps because) of the advice given by US advisers, the GDP of the Russian Federation fell dramatically. Sources: China: Internet website entitled “Chinability”; US: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. USSR: Firth et al. (1998).</figcaption></figure>

The growth record of the USSR may come as a surprise. This is because most often the Soviet GDP growth is estimated in dollars and it turns out that from 1950 to
stands in contrast with the United States where New York is the only city with a population over 10 millions. Not surprisingly, together with the development of automobile circulation, such high population densities also led to pollution problems. It will be interesting to see whether in the coming decade this problem will be solved or not.

## Fast economic development

Fig. 3.6 shows that in the 67 years between 1950 and 2016 the real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) GDP of China was multiplied by 100 which corresponds to an average annual rate of $r = \exp[(\ln 100)/67] - 1 = 7.3\%$. This chart also shows a remarkable continuity between the pre- and post-opening era. It can be observed that for all its turmoil the Cultural Revolution had in fact little influence on the economy except in 1967–1968.

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.6** Growth of the inflation adjusted “Gross Domestic Product” (i.e. real GDP) of China, the US and the USSR. The three curves are indexes in the sense that they start from 1 in 1952; this in order to make the comparison easier. Otherwise, they are defined as the real GDP that is to say the current GDP divided by the consumer price index. It fell markedly in 1960-1961 after the failure of the “Great Leap Forward” and the food scarcity which resulted in some provinces. In 1967-1968, probably as a result of the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese GDP fell again (at an average annual rate of 4.9%) but in 1969-1971 it increased at an annual average rate of 14.4%. After 1991, in spite (or perhaps because) of the advice given by US advisers, the GDP of the Russian Federation fell dramatically. Sources: China: Internet website entitled “Chinability”; US: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. USSR: Firth et al. (1998).</figcaption></figure>

The growth record of the USSR may come as a surprise. This is because most often the Soviet GDP growth is estimated in dollars and it turns out that from 1950 to
1990 the official exchange rate of the Soviet ruble was multiplied by 6.6. In 1950 the rate was 4 rubles per dollar whereas in 1988 it was 0.58 ruble per dollar. As the ruble was not a convertible currency any exchange rate, whether official or unofficial, was artificial and meaningless. If the graphs expressed in dollars were based on the official rate, for the period 1952-1990 instead of being multiplied by 4 the GDP would be multiplied by $4 \times 6.6 = 26$. Naturally none of the dollar curves that one can find on the Internet shows such an increase. Most of them display a GDP multiplied by a factor 2.5. This shows that such curves were based on black market estimates of the exchange rate. Such estimates are of course highly uncertain. According to one account (Trefilov 2015) in 1988 when the official rate was 0.58 ruble per dollar the black market rate was 33 rubles per dollar, i.e. 57 times more.

When expressed in rubles (as in Fig. 3.6) the average annual growth rate of the Soviet GDP was 3.4%.

## Social activation in the armed forces

In any revolution or indeed in any major social movement, armed forces play an essential role. If the insurgents cannot set up effective armed forces they will be defeated and their movement will be crushed. One could find many cases illustrating this point. Let us mention two.

* The **Taiping movement** lasted from 1850 to 1864. Begun in the south of China it sought the conversion of the Chinese people to the Taiping's version of Christianity, the overthrow of the ruling Manchus, and a wholesale transformation and reforma- tion of the state. Eventually the western powers helped the Imperial government to defeat it. The fact that the death toll was estimated to be of the order of 30 million (10% of the population of China) shows that it was a large scale movement.

* After the **Revolution of 1917** in Russia, the western powers and Japan sent expeditionary forces to Russia to aid the anti-revolutionary white forces. According to the Wikipedia article entitled “Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War”, even the newly founded “Republic of China” sent 2,300 troops to Russia. Other countries sent larger numbers. Japan sent 70,000, Czechoslovakia sent 50,000, Greece sent 23,000 and the US sent 13,000. The US force comprised two parts: one number- ing 5,000 and called the “American North Russia Expeditionary Force” was sent to the port of Arkhangelsk in north-west Russia, while the other numbering 8,000 and called the “American Expeditionary Force Siberia” was shipped to Vladivostok from the Philippines. Altogether the Allied forces numbered some 140,000. Clearly, had the Russian Red Army not been organized in an effective way, the Revolution would have been crushed in the same way as the Taiping rebellion.

After the end of the war against Japan some 100,000 US troops were sent to China, supposedly to move the Japanese soldiers back to Japan. In fact, many Japanese
1990 the official exchange rate of the Soviet ruble was multiplied by 6.6. In 1950 the rate was 4 rubles per dollar whereas in 1988 it was 0.58 ruble per dollar. As the ruble was not a convertible currency any exchange rate, whether official or unofficial, was artificial and meaningless. If the graphs expressed in dollars were based on the official rate, for the period 1952-1990 instead of being multiplied by 4 the GDP would be multiplied by $4 \times 6.6 = 26$. Naturally none of the dollar curves that one can find on the Internet shows such an increase. Most of them display a GDP multiplied by a factor 2.5. This shows that such curves were based on black market estimates of the exchange rate. Such estimates are of course highly uncertain. According to one account (Trefilov 2015) in 1988 when the official rate was 0.58 ruble per dollar the black market rate was 33 rubles per dollar, i.e. 57 times more.

When expressed in rubles (as in Fig. 3.6) the average annual growth rate of the Soviet GDP was 3.4%.

## Social activation in the armed forces

In any revolution or indeed in any major social movement, armed forces play an essential role. If the insurgents cannot set up effective armed forces they will be defeated and their movement will be crushed. One could find many cases illustrating this point. Let us mention two.

* The **Taiping movement** lasted from 1850 to 1864. Begun in the south of China it sought the conversion of the Chinese people to the Taiping's version of Christianity, the overthrow of the ruling Manchus, and a wholesale transformation and reforma- tion of the state. Eventually the western powers helped the Imperial government to defeat it. The fact that the death toll was estimated to be of the order of 30 million (10% of the population of China) shows that it was a large scale movement.

* After the **Revolution of 1917** in Russia, the western powers and Japan sent expeditionary forces to Russia to aid the anti-revolutionary white forces. According to the Wikipedia article entitled “Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War”, even the newly founded “Republic of China” sent 2,300 troops to Russia. Other countries sent larger numbers. Japan sent 70,000, Czechoslovakia sent 50,000, Greece sent 23,000 and the US sent 13,000. The US force comprised two parts: one number- ing 5,000 and called the “American North Russia Expeditionary Force” was sent to the port of Arkhangelsk in north-west Russia, while the other numbering 8,000 and called the “American Expeditionary Force Siberia” was shipped to Vladivostok from the Philippines. Altogether the Allied forces numbered some 140,000. Clearly, had the Russian Red Army not been organized in an effective way, the Revolution would have been crushed in the same way as the Taiping rebellion.

After the end of the war against Japan some 100,000 US troops were sent to China, supposedly to move the Japanese soldiers back to Japan. In fact, many Japanese
troops sided with the **Kuomintang against the Communists** and were not moved to Japan until several months later. After 1945 US troops continued to train, arm and support KMT divisions as they had started to do during the war<fnref n="20" />. To many, the rapid collapse of KMT troops after 1947 came as a surprise. However, if one considers the situation of the soldiers in the Red Army (which was renamed “People’s Liberation Army” or PLA in 1945) and in the KMT army respectively, this outcome becomes more understandable. The contrast indeed was quite dramatic. KMT troops were commonly inducted by force, the funds destined to support them were often embezzled by corrupt officers. On the contrary, in the Red Army the officers shared the same food and living conditions as the soldiers. As a result, prior or during battle, whole KMT divisions changed side.

In support of the claim that in the 1940s the PLA was really an army of a new kind one can mention the testimony given by US personnel in the box below.

**Jan 31, 1949: US testimony in the wake of the occupation of Tientsin by Communist troops.** We were favorably impressed by the conduct of the officers and men of the People's Liberation Army. They refused gifts of any sort, the only thing they would accept being hot water or tea. In houses they did occupy they frequently offered to share their meager rations with their hosts particularly with the children. They patrolled the city protecting property. Along the business street they placed guards over stores whose windows had been shattered. The "front line" troops have largely moved on and have been replaced by troops which are less "elite", but even the present troops are behaving admirably. About one week after the liberation of the city it became possible to send mail to other cities in the liberated area but not to cities in the KMT area.

*Source: Records of the US Department of State relating to the Internal Affairs of Korea, microfilm, reel 8, available at the "National Library of China".*

One may wonder why this account about the liberation of Tientsin was in a file about Korea. It is because three members of the "Economic Cooperation Administration" in Tientsin (ECA, a US government agency set up in 1948 to administer the Marshall Plan) arrived in Seoul on 22 March 1949. This is an interesting precision because it shows that when they released their account the men were no longer in China. In other words, it can be completely excluded that they published these good words to gain the favor of the PLA commander.

This testimony is all the more remarkable when one realizes that the French revolutionary armies which spread the gospel of the citizens' rights throughout Europe did not always behave in a way in accordance with their creed.

<footnote n="20">²⁰More details can be found in Roehner (2016c)</footnote>
troops sided with the **Kuomintang against the Communists** and were not moved to Japan until several months later. After 1945 US troops continued to train, arm and support KMT divisions as they had started to do during the war<fnref n="20" />. To many, the rapid collapse of KMT troops after 1947 came as a surprise. However, if one considers the situation of the soldiers in the Red Army (which was renamed “People’s Liberation Army” or PLA in 1945) and in the KMT army respectively, this outcome becomes more understandable. The contrast indeed was quite dramatic. KMT troops were commonly inducted by force, the funds destined to support them were often embezzled by corrupt officers. On the contrary, in the Red Army the officers shared the same food and living conditions as the soldiers. As a result, prior or during battle, whole KMT divisions changed side.

In support of the claim that in the 1940s the PLA was really an army of a new kind one can mention the testimony given by US personnel in the box below.

**Jan 31, 1949: US testimony in the wake of the occupation of Tientsin by Communist troops.** We were favorably impressed by the conduct of the officers and men of the People's Liberation Army. They refused gifts of any sort, the only thing they would accept being hot water or tea. In houses they did occupy they frequently offered to share their meager rations with their hosts particularly with the children. They patrolled the city protecting property. Along the business street they placed guards over stores whose windows had been shattered. The "front line" troops have largely moved on and have been replaced by troops which are less "elite", but even the present troops are behaving admirably. About one week after the liberation of the city it became possible to send mail to other cities in the liberated area but not to cities in the KMT area.

*Source: Records of the US Department of State relating to the Internal Affairs of Korea, microfilm, reel 8, available at the "National Library of China".*

One may wonder why this account about the liberation of Tientsin was in a file about Korea. It is because three members of the "Economic Cooperation Administration" in Tientsin (ECA, a US government agency set up in 1948 to administer the Marshall Plan) arrived in Seoul on 22 March 1949. This is an interesting precision because it shows that when they released their account the men were no longer in China. In other words, it can be completely excluded that they published these good words to gain the favor of the PLA commander.

This testimony is all the more remarkable when one realizes that the French revolutionary armies which spread the gospel of the citizens' rights throughout Europe did not always behave in a way in accordance with their creed.

<footnote n="20">²⁰More details can be found in Roehner (2016c)</footnote>
# Comparison with other episodes of national activation

In this section we describe some aspects of episodes of national activation in other countries. We will not attempt a systematic comparison. Our objective is rather to emphasize the similarities.

## Spreading a message

### Declaration of Human Rights (August 1789)

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

The same kind of cap seen
on the head of a Greek statue
of the second century. It became
known as a liberty cap because
it resembled the cap worn
by freed slaves.

Paris, April 2017
Le juge demonstrateur
pour la presidential election

**Fig. 3.7 Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen.** On this painting by the French painter Jean-Jacques-François Le Barbier one can observe three things of particular interest. (i) At the top the radiating triangle with an eye inside which pushes aside the clouds symbolizes the reign of reason. The same masonic symbol appears on the one dollar banknote next to the motto "In God we trust". (ii) The lady on the left-hand side symbolizes the French people after it broke its chains. (iii) The red cap in the middle is an old symbol symbolizing freedom which is why it is sometimes called a "Liberty Cap". Source: Wikipedia article entitled "Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen", public domain.

As an illustration of the message spread by the French Revolution we mention some of the articles of the "Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen" adopted in August 1789 by the National Constituent Assembly.

* Men are born and remain free and equal in rights. (Article 1)

* The principle of any sovereignty resides essentially in the Nation. No body, no individual can exert authority which does not emanate expressly from it. (Article 3)
# Comparison with other episodes of national activation

In this section we describe some aspects of episodes of national activation in other countries. We will not attempt a systematic comparison. Our objective is rather to emphasize the similarities.

## Spreading a message

### Declaration of Human Rights (August 1789)

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /></figure>

The same kind of cap seen on the head of a Greek statue of the second century. It became known as a liberty cap because it resembled the cap worn by freed slaves.

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

Paris, April 2017
Le juge demonstrateur for the presidential election

**Fig. 3.7 Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen.** On this painting by the French painter Jean-Jacques-François Le Barbier one can observe three things of particular interest. (i) At the top the radiating triangle with an eye inside which pushes aside the clouds symbolizes the reign of reason. The same masonic symbol appears on the one dollar banknote next to the motto "In God we trust". (ii) The lady on the left-hand side symbolizes the French people after it broke its chains. (iii) The red cap in the middle is an old symbol symbolizing freedom which is why it is sometimes called a "Liberty Cap". Source: Wikipedia article entitled "Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen", public domain.

As an illustration of the message spread by the French Revolution we mention some of the articles of the "Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen" adopted in August 1789 by the National Constituent Assembly.

* Men are born and remain free and equal in rights. (Article 1)

* The principle of any sovereignty resides essentially in the Nation. No body, no individual can exert authority which does not emanate expressly from it. (Article 3)
* The citizens are equally admissible to all public dignities, places, and employments, according to their capacity and without distinction other than that of their virtues and of their talents. (Article 6)

These statements marked a sharp change with respect to the situation prevailing hitherto.

* Previously, the son of a noble man inherited his status. Thanks to it he could get access to positions, particularly in the army and navy, to which common citizens were not entitled.

* Previously the principle of all sovereignty did not reside in the Nation but in the person of the king.

At that time the only republic in existence in Europe was Switzerland. Thus, by adopting such a declaration and trying to spread its principles to neighboring countries, France exposed itself to the hostility of all European kingdoms.

## Recurrent appearances of the Liberty Cap

Incidentally, the case of the Liberty Cap in Fig. 3.7 illustrates the fact that the elements used in historical events have a life of their own whose time scale much exceeds the human life span. After being worn by freed slaves in antiquity, the Liberty Cap appeared in several episodes of the history of France. Here are a few examples.

* On 23 February 1358 an armed fraction of the Parisian population invaded the "Palais de la Cité" which was the residence of the kings of France until the 14th century. Their leader, Etienne Marcel, then asked Charles V to wear a red and blue Liberty Cap (Wikipedia article in French entitled "Charles V").

* The Liberty Cap was seen again in an anti-fiscal revolt in 1675, the so-called "Révolte des bonnets rouges".

* In June 1792, in a repetition of the scenario of 1358, the Parisian population invaded the King's palace and asked Louis XVI to wear the Liberty Cap.

* The bottom panel of Fig. 2.6 shows that the Liberty Cap was used in April 2017 in a political demonstration in support of a candidate (i.e. Jean-Luc Mélanchon) in the Presidential election.

## Conclusion

Recently, a Chinese science fiction writer, Liu Cixin, has achieved great fame in China with the publication of a trilogy whose first volume is entitled "The three body problem". It was published in mainland China in 2006, translated into English in 2014 and into French in 2017. In 2015 Liu was one of the winners of the "Hugo Award for Best Science Fiction Novel". As shown below, there are three good
* The citizens are equally admissible to all public dignities, places, and employments, according to their capacity and without distinction other than that of their virtues and of their talents. (Article 6)

These statements marked a sharp change with respect to the situation prevailing hitherto.

* Previously, the son of a noble man inherited his status. Thanks to it he could get access to positions, particularly in the army and navy, to which common citizens were not entitled.

* Previously the principle of all sovereignty did not reside in the Nation but in the person of the king.

At that time the only republic in existence in Europe was Switzerland. Thus, by adopting such a declaration and trying to spread its principles to neighboring countries, France exposed itself to the hostility of all European kingdoms.

## Recurrent appearances of the Liberty Cap

Incidentally, the case of the Liberty Cap in Fig. 3.7 illustrates the fact that the elements used in historical events have a life of their own whose time scale much exceeds the human life span. After being worn by freed slaves in antiquity, the Liberty Cap appeared in several episodes of the history of France. Here are a few examples.

* On 23 February 1358 an armed fraction of the Parisian population invaded the "Palais de la Cité" which was the residence of the kings of France until the 14th century. Their leader, Etienne Marcel, then asked Charles V to wear a red and blue Liberty Cap (Wikipedia article in French entitled "Charles V").

* The Liberty Cap was seen again in an anti-fiscal revolt in 1675, the so-called "Révolte des bonnets rouges".

* In June 1792, in a repetition of the scenario of 1358, the Parisian population invaded the King's palace and asked Louis XVI to wear the Liberty Cap.

* The bottom panel of Fig. 2.6 shows that the Liberty Cap was used in April 2017 in a political demonstration in support of a candidate (i.e. Jean-Luc Mélanchon) in the Presidential election.

## Conclusion

Recently, a Chinese science fiction writer, Liu Cixin, has achieved great fame in China with the publication of a trilogy whose first volume is entitled "The three body problem". It was published in mainland China in 2006, translated into English in 2014 and into French in 2017. In 2015 Liu was one of the winners of the "Hugo Award for Best Science Fiction Novel". As shown below, there are three good
reasons to mention this book in the conclusion of this chapter.

**Is there a national activation in Chinese literature?**

Liu Cixin was not the first Chinese author to receive a prestigious western award. Gao Xingjian was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2000. Born and educated in China, he came to France in 1986 (at the age of 46) and became a French citizen in 1998. Although some of his books were written in French, most of his work is in Chinese. Then, in 2012 Mo Yan became formally the first Chinese citizen to receive the same Nobel Award. Because science fiction is a very popular genre in China, Liu has probably more readers and followers than Gao or Mo especially among young people. In a sense his success points out the beginning of a process of national activation in the field of culture and art.

However, in terms of science fiction production the market is still largely dominated by American authors. In fact Liu shared his prize of 2015 with 5 other authors who were all Americans. Moreover, among the winners of the Hugo award in previous years the proportion of US authors is over 90% (the list is given in the Wikipedia article entitled “Hugo Award for Best Novel<fnref n="21" />”). In other words, although the case of Liu Cixin suggests that something is simmering, it also tells us that to reach parity with the US in terms of science fiction production may take longer than to reach parity for annual GDP.

**Historians tend to study one body problems**

The title of Liu's book can be linked to an observation made at the beginning of this chapter. The three body problem designates the study of the interactions between three objects, for instance the Sun, Earth and Moon. Whereas the three body problem is a very difficult case, the two-body problem (i.e. just the Sun and Earth) has been the bread-and-butter of Newtonian astronomy. Although of no interest in astronomy the one body problem (i.e. just the Sun or Earth alone) is the bread-and-butter of historians for all too often they tend to forget the many interactions that the country which they study has with its neighbors. The success or failure of a country depends as much on its neighbors than on its domestic policy.

In a one-body perspective it would be easy for Chinese science fiction writers to develop and expand their activity. However, American science fiction writers will not willingly give up their overwhelming share of the huge Chinese market. Along with the organizations which represent them such as the “World Science Fiction Society” (WSFS) and the “World Science Fiction Convention” which awards the prizes, they will do their best to sell translations of their own novels to the Chinese public. In recent years, the Chinese “Science Fiction World Group” was the entrance

<footnote n="21">²¹The Hugo award is named in honor of Hugo Gernsback (1884-1967), an American science fiction writer.</footnote>
reasons to mention this book in the conclusion of this chapter.

**Is there a national activation in Chinese literature?**

Liu Cixin was not the first Chinese author to receive a prestigious western award. Gao Xingjian was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2000. Born and educated in China, he came to France in 1986 (at the age of 46) and became a French citizen in 1998. Although some of his books were written in French, most of his work is in Chinese. Then, in 2012 Mo Yan became formally the first Chinese citizen to receive the same Nobel Award. Because science fiction is a very popular genre in China, Liu has probably more readers and followers than Gao or Mo especially among young people. In a sense his success points out the beginning of a process of national activation in the field of culture and art.

However, in terms of science fiction production the market is still largely dominated by American authors. In fact Liu shared his prize of 2015 with 5 other authors who were all Americans. Moreover, among the winners of the Hugo award in previous years the proportion of US authors is over 90% (the list is given in the Wikipedia article entitled “Hugo Award for Best Novel<fnref n="21" />”). In other words, although the case of Liu Cixin suggests that something is simmering, it also tells us that to reach parity with the US in terms of science fiction production may take longer than to reach parity for annual GDP.

**Historians tend to study one body problems**

The title of Liu's book can be linked to an observation made at the beginning of this chapter. The three body problem designates the study of the interactions between three objects, for instance the Sun, Earth and Moon. Whereas the three body problem is a very difficult case, the two-body problem (i.e. just the Sun and Earth) has been the bread-and-butter of Newtonian astronomy. Although of no interest in astronomy the one body problem (i.e. just the Sun or Earth alone) is the bread-and-butter of historians for all too often they tend to forget the many interactions that the country which they study has with its neighbors. The success or failure of a country depends as much on its neighbors than on its domestic policy.

In a one-body perspective it would be easy for Chinese science fiction writers to develop and expand their activity. However, American science fiction writers will not willingly give up their overwhelming share of the huge Chinese market. Along with the organizations which represent them such as the “World Science Fiction Society” (WSFS) and the “World Science Fiction Convention” which awards the prizes, they will do their best to sell translations of their own novels to the Chinese public. In recent years, the Chinese “Science Fiction World Group” was the entrance

<footnote n="21">²¹The Hugo award is named in honor of Hugo Gernsback (1884-1967), an American science fiction writer.</footnote>
door for US novels. In the 20 years following its creation in 1979, it has translated
into Chinese 157 foreign novels, almost all of which were by US writers. L. Tidhar
(2003) writes that in the early 2000s, US science fiction novels of the 1940s and
1950s were still the backbone of the Chinese science fiction market.

The fact that it took 8 years for Liu's trilogy to be translated also tells us that it will
not be easy for Chinese authors to enter the American market.

It will be really interesting to see what will happen in the small world of science
fiction in the next decade.

## Liu Cixin

The biography of Liu Cixin tells us something which may be of interest in relation
with the project presented in this book. By education he was a scientist and he
worked as a computer engineer in a medium-size city in Shanxi province. In 2006,
when the “Three body problem” was published, he was 43. In other words, his
activity as a writer was developed mostly as a free-time hobby.

The present book is also mostly (though by no means exclusively) destined to sci-
entists and it is our hope that among our readers some will develop this vision of
history through their own research as a free-time hobby.
door for US novels. In the 20 years following its creation in 1979, it has translated
into Chinese 157 foreign novels, almost all of which were by US writers. L. Tidhar
(2003) writes that in the early 2000s, US science fiction novels of the 1940s and
1950s were still the backbone of the Chinese science fiction market.

The fact that it took 8 years for Liu's trilogy to be translated also tells us that it will
not be easy for Chinese authors to enter the American market.

It will be really interesting to see what will happen in the small world of science
fiction in the next decade.

## Liu Cixin

The biography of Liu Cixin tells us something which may be of interest in relation
with the project presented in this book. By education he was a scientist and he
worked as a computer engineer in a medium-size city in Shanxi province. In 2006,
when the “Three body problem” was published, he was 43. In other words, his
activity as a writer was developed mostly as a free-time hobby.

The present book is also mostly (though by no means exclusively) destined to sci-
entists and it is our hope that among our readers some will develop this vision of
history through their own research as a free-time hobby.
# Chapter 4
## Silk Road vs. containment policy

### Introduction

The title of this chapter involves two very different notions.

* “Silk Road” refers to a project of economic development for west and central Asia proposed in November 2012 by Chinese Secretary General Xi Jinping. It is based on the idea of fostering economic growth by improving communication infrastructure. In this sense it is fairly easy to understand. This is one of the reasons why it does not require much additional explanations. The second reason is that at time of writing (2017) it is still too early to assess how successful it will be.

* “Containment policy” is a notion which is far less obvious and that is why 80% of the content of this chapter will be devoted to it. This concept was developed and implemented by the United States during the Cold War. As containment cannot be effective unless it is operated by a large number of countries it requires a complicated and ambitious strategy. First, one must secure faithful allies, then one must convince them to form a network under US leadership. Finally, one has to convince these countries that it is in their interest to oppose and ostracize the adversaries of the United States. As none of these steps is obvious it required the State Department to invent and implement very smart policies. In addition, in order to work well, these strategies have to be kept hidden as far as possible. For the historian, this is an additional challenge. In order to convince our readers that our account is not merely a kind of conspiration theory it will be necessary to give several historical illustrations. However to prevent this chapter from becoming too lengthy, such historical accounts will be given fairly succinctly and will be supplemented by additional online references where, if they wish so, our readers can find more explanations and at the same time check that what we say is indeed correct.

As this chapter unfolds it will become clear that military cooperation is one of the key components of containment policies. This raises a question. How will Silk Road projects and containment policies come in interaction? The two agendas seem to operate at completely different levels. This question will be considered in the last
# Chapter 4
## Silk Road vs. containment policy

### Introduction

The title of this chapter involves two very different notions.

* “Silk Road” refers to a project of economic development for west and central Asia proposed in November 2012 by Chinese Secretary General Xi Jinping. It is based on the idea of fostering economic growth by improving communication infrastructure. In this sense it is fairly easy to understand. This is one of the reasons why it does not require much additional explanations. The second reason is that at time of writing (2017) it is still too early to assess how successful it will be.

* “Containment policy” is a notion which is far less obvious and that is why 80% of the content of this chapter will be devoted to it. This concept was developed and implemented by the United States during the Cold War. As containment cannot be effective unless it is operated by a large number of countries it requires a complicated and ambitious strategy. First, one must secure faithful allies, then one must convince them to form a network under US leadership. Finally, one has to convince these countries that it is in their interest to oppose and ostracize the adversaries of the United States. As none of these steps is obvious it required the State Department to invent and implement very smart policies. In addition, in order to work well, these strategies have to be kept hidden as far as possible. For the historian, this is an additional challenge. In order to convince our readers that our account is not merely a kind of conspiracy theory it will be necessary to give several historical illustrations. However to prevent this chapter from becoming too lengthy, such historical accounts will be given fairly succinctly and will be supplemented by additional online references where, if they wish so, our readers can find more explanations and at the same time check that what we say is indeed correct.

As this chapter unfolds it will become clear that military cooperation is one of the key components of containment policies. This raises a question. How will Silk Road projects and containment policies come in interaction? The two agendas seem to operate at completely different levels. This question will be considered in the last
part of the chapter.

Ideally, military cooperation may exist on a power parity basis. However, when one of the partners is vastly more powerful, then cooperation quickly leads to subordination. This is why military cooperation between two unequal partners is the method of choice for creating a network of vassal states. Did you ever wonder why advanced countries like Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea or Turkey did not develop their own nuclear weapons. The reason is simple. They are all vassal allies of the United States and their overlord understands very well that as long as they have to rely on the US nuclear deterrence umbrella they will remain faithful allies.

Because vassal states are a key component of any containment policy we first need to explain this notion. This is all the more important in present time because this notion has so to say disappeared. In the vocabulary of 19th and early 20th century diplomacy the notion of zone of influence was commonly used. For instance, China had been divided into zones of influence with Japan being preponderant in the north, Britain in Shanghai (the so-called British Settlement) and in Guangzhou and France being also present in Shanghai in the French Concession and in the southern part of China bordering the frontier with Indochina that is to say present-day Vietnam. Nowadays however, the terms “client state” or “vassal state” have a distinct derogatory meaning and are no longer used except when one wants to deprecate a country. In spite of the fact that there are nowadays a great number of very small independent countries, any member of the United Nations is seen as a fully sovereign nation. For instance, in the Wikipedia article about “Saint Kitts and Nevis”, a former British colony and a member of the United Nations since 1983 there is not a single suggestion that it might belong to the British-US zone of influence. Yet, the currency that it uses, namely the “Eastern Caribbean dollar”, is pegged to the US dollar which basically means that the monetary policy is decided in Washington DC.

**Outline of the chapter**

In a first part we describe step by step and in fairly general terms (with the help of a number of diagrams) the process which leads to the creation of networks of vassal states. It is through such networks that the containment policies can and are implemented.

Before providing illustrative examples of how non-aligned states can be transformed into vassal states, we devote a section to the Silk Road project. This section is fairly short because at present time it is still difficult to see how this great project will work out.

Military occupation is the most frequently used method for transforming a country into a vassal state. This process started during the Second World War which gave
part of the chapter.

Ideally, military cooperation may exist on a power parity basis. However, when one of the partners is vastly more powerful, then cooperation quickly leads to subordination. This is why military cooperation between two unequal partners is the method of choice for creating a network of vassal states. Did you ever wonder why advanced countries like Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea or Turkey did not develop their own nuclear weapons. The reason is simple. They are all vassal allies of the United States and their overlord understands very well that as long as they have to rely on the US nuclear deterrence umbrella they will remain faithful allies.

Because vassal states are a key component of any containment policy we first need to explain this notion. This is all the more important in present time because this notion has so to say disappeared. In the vocabulary of 19th and early 20th century diplomacy the notion of zone of influence was commonly used. For instance, China had been divided into zones of influence with Japan being preponderant in the north, Britain in Shanghai (the so-called British Settlement) and in Guangzhou and France being also present in Shanghai in the French Concession and in the southern part of China bordering the frontier with Indochina that is to say present-day Vietnam. Nowadays however, the terms “client state” or “vassal state” have a distinct derogatory meaning and are no longer used except when one wants to deprecate a country. In spite of the fact that there are nowadays a great number of very small independent countries, any member of the United Nations is seen as a fully sovereign nation. For instance, in the Wikipedia article about “Saint Kitts and Nevis”, a former British colony and a member of the United Nations since 1983 there is not a single suggestion that it might belong to the British-US zone of influence. Yet, the currency that it uses, namely the “Eastern Caribbean dollar”, is pegged to the US dollar which basically means that the monetary policy is decided in Washington DC.

**Outline of the chapter**

In a first part we describe step by step and in fairly general terms (with the help of a number of diagrams) the process which leads to the creation of networks of vassal states. It is through such networks that the containment policies can and are implemented.

Before providing illustrative examples of how non-aligned states can be transformed into vassal states, we devote a section to the Silk Road project. This section is fairly short because at present time it is still difficult to see how this great project will work out.

Military occupation is the most frequently used method for transforming a country into a vassal state. This process started during the Second World War which gave
the United States many opportunities of military occupation. It has continued with slight differences in the decades following World War II. It turns out that the war time occupations were more successful (in terms of producing vassal states) than those who took place later on. This leads us quite naturally to wonder what is the reason.

Then comes a section about Africa. This continent deserves special attention for at least two reasons.

i In contrast with Asia, it remained largely outside World War II. Therefore, except in North Africa, there was no US occupation.

ii There have been programs of economic cooperation between African countries and China for several decades. These programs can probably give a foretaste of what will take place in the Silk Road project.

One may think that reducing the United States to its military role is too restrictive. After all it is also a great economic power. This is why we devote a section to the humanitarian role of the US. It will be seen that with respect to developing countries there is a wide gap between the objectives claimed by the State Department and actual realizations.

In the concluding section we briefly discuss some factors which may determine the outcome of the conflict.

# Vassal states

## Meaning of the words “overlord” and “vassal”

In Europe during the Middle Age an overlord was a lord having supremacy over other lords who were in fact his vassals. Nowadays the word is not much used but for some reason this word was chosen as the codename to designate the Battle of Normandy which followed the allied landing on 6 June 1944.

The term “vassal state” was commonly used in the past. As a matter of fact many empires have set up vassal states for the purpose of controlling them without having to directly govern them. Other expressions used with similar meanings are: “client state”, “puppet state”, “subordinate state”, “protectorate” or (more rarely) “junior ally”. Such countries have lost independence in terms of defense, foreign policy (the two aspects usually go together) and often also monetary policy.

This loss of independence can be *de facto* or it can be recognized officially. As an illustration, the European Union should be *officially* referred to as a vassal state of the United States because its constitution (the so-called Lisbonne Constitutional Treaty) recognizes its dependence on NATO which is under the command of a US four star
the United States many opportunities of military occupation. It has continued with slight differences in the decades following World War II. It turns out that the war time occupations were more successful (in terms of producing vassal states) than those who took place later on. This leads us quite naturally to wonder what is the reason.

Then comes a section about Africa. This continent deserves special attention for at least two reasons.

i In contrast with Asia, it remained largely outside World War II. Therefore, except in North Africa, there was no US occupation.

ii There have been programs of economic cooperation between African countries and China for several decades. These programs can probably give a foretaste of what will take place in the Silk Road project.

One may think that reducing the United States to its military role is too restrictive. After all it is also a great economic power. This is why we devote a section to the humanitarian role of the US. It will be seen that with respect to developing countries there is a wide gap between the objectives claimed by the State Department and actual realizations.

In the concluding section we briefly discuss some factors which may determine the outcome of the conflict.

# Vassal states

## Meaning of the words “overlord” and “vassal”

In Europe during the Middle Age an overlord was a lord having supremacy over other lords who were in fact his vassals. Nowadays the word is not much used but for some reason this word was chosen as the codename to designate the Battle of Normandy which followed the allied landing on 6 June 1944.

The term “vassal state” was commonly used in the past. As a matter of fact many empires have set up vassal states for the purpose of controlling them without having to directly govern them. Other expressions used with similar meanings are: “client state”, “puppet state”, “subordinate state”, “protectorate” or (more rarely) “junior ally”. Such countries have lost independence in terms of defense, foreign policy (the two aspects usually go together) and often also monetary policy.

This loss of independence can be *de facto* or it can be recognized officially. As an illustration, the European Union should be *officially* referred to as a vassal state of the United States because its constitution (the so-called Lisbonne Constitutional Treaty) recognizes its dependence on NATO which is under the command of a US four star
general<fnref n="22" />.

From the time of the Zhou Dynasty (from -1046 to -770) until the Han Dynasty (from -206 to 220), vassal states existed in ancient China, such as the States of Chu and Qin. Then in -221 the Qin kingdom conquered the rest of China and united the country under the first emperor Qin Shi Huang which means “First emperor of Qin”.

## First illustration through the extreme case of post-war Japan

It will be of interest to understand why this was an extreme case of vassal state for at the same time it will tell us an important feature of the overlord-vassal relationship.

After the defeat of Germany in May 1945 the western part of the country was occupied by the United States, Great Britain and France and it was ruled by the military commanders following the directives of their governments in their respective occupation areas. In other words, there was no longer any German government.

In Japan, a different policy was used in the sense that a Japanese government was kept in place but put under the control of the United States which was the main occupying power (there was also a small British and Commonwealth occupying force). This Japanese government had a prime minister and a number of ministries. Moreover, the general elections of 11 April 1946 brought into existence a Japanese Parliament. From then on, started a fiction according to which Japan was ruled by its government and Parliament. In reality however all the authority remained in the hands of the occupying force. This force comprised a well organized group of Civil Affairs Officers who were instead the real rulers of the country. Authorizations for foreign trade, industrial production, textbooks for the schools, and many other topics including the writing of the Japanese constitution, in short all decisions (even on very technical questions such as the reform of the Japanese judicial system) were taken by the Civil Affairs Officers under the authority of the US State Department.

What is remarkable is the fact that in the historical accounts published both in the US as in Japan the crucial role of the Civil Affairs Officers is completely omitted. There is a good rationale for that because the fiction of an autonomous Japanese government cooperating in a friendly way with US headquarters suits the wishes of the Japanese side (“not loosing face”) as well as the goals of the US side (not humiliating a country which would become a close ally). That US historians do not wish to deviate from the account set forth years ago by the history section of the State Department tells us how far self-censorship may go<fnref n="23" />.

## Second illustration: China in 1946

<footnote n="22">²²Whereas its Secretary General (who has little power) may be of any nation its Commander-in-Chief is *always* a US four-star general appointed by the American president.</footnote>

<footnote n="23">²³For a detailed (and more reliable) account, see Roehner (2016e).</footnote>
general<fnref n="22" />.

From the time of the Zhou Dynasty (from -1046 to -770) until the Han Dynasty (from -206 to 220), vassal states existed in ancient China, such as the States of Chu and Qin. Then in -221 the Qin kingdom conquered the rest of China and united the country under the first emperor Qin Shi Huang which means “First emperor of Qin”.

## First illustration through the extreme case of post-war Japan

It will be of interest to understand why this was an extreme case of vassal state for at the same time it will tell us an important feature of the overlord-vassal relationship.

After the defeat of Germany in May 1945 the western part of the country was occupied by the United States, Great Britain and France and it was ruled by the military commanders following the directives of their governments in their respective occupation areas. In other words, there was no longer any German government.

In Japan, a different policy was used in the sense that a Japanese government was kept in place but put under the control of the United States which was the main occupying power (there was also a small British and Commonwealth occupying force). This Japanese government had a prime minister and a number of ministries. Moreover, the general elections of 11 April 1946 brought into existence a Japanese Parliament. From then on, started a fiction according to which Japan was ruled by its government and Parliament. In reality however all the authority remained in the hands of the occupying force. This force comprised a well organized group of Civil Affairs Officers who were instead the real rulers of the country. Authorizations for foreign trade, industrial production, textbooks for the schools, and many other topics including the writing of the Japanese constitution, in short all decisions (even on very technical questions such as the reform of the Japanese judicial system) were taken by the Civil Affairs Officers under the authority of the US State Department.

What is remarkable is the fact that in the historical accounts published both in the US as in Japan the crucial role of the Civil Affairs Officers is completely omitted. There is a good rationale for that because the fiction of an autonomous Japanese government cooperating in a friendly way with US headquarters suits the wishes of the Japanese side (“not losing face”) as well as the goals of the US side (not humiliating a country which would become a close ally). That US historians do not wish to deviate from the account set forth years ago by the history section of the State Department tells us how far self-censorship may go<fnref n="23" />.

## Second illustration: China in 1946

<footnote n="22">²²Whereas its Secretary General (who has little power) may be of any nation its Commander-in-Chief is *always* a US four-star general appointed by the American president.</footnote>

<footnote n="23">²³For a detailed (and more reliable) account, see Roehner (2016e).</footnote>
During the Pacific War, China was an important ally for the United States, in particular because the Nationalist government gave the permission to open airfields from where US bombers could carry out raids on Japanese cities.

After the end of the war, the economic situation of the KMT government was difficult which put it in the situation of a vassal state dependent upon the aid and good will of the US government. This situation was clearly revealed by the terms of the “Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation” signed on 4 November 1946 by Chinese and US representatives.

In China the terms of the treaty brought about a wave of protests. Many Chinese businessmen denounced the treaty as being detrimental to China economic interests. Because of the difference in the level of economic development reached by China and the United States the manager of the Minsheng Shipping Company, He Shiyan, compared the treaty to an agreement between an adult and a boy in which each is supposed to carry a load of 20 pounds in a supposedly equal race. The “Shanghai News” said that the treaty robbed China of its customs and taxation rights<fnref n="24" />.

The Chinese Communist Party designated November 4 as “National Humiliation Day” in the Communist-controlled area. On February 1, 1947, the Central Committee of the Communist Party declared it would refuse to acknowledge any treacherous treaties signed by the Kuomintang government, adding that the policy of the KMT government is contrary to the will of the Chinese people, and is pushing China into the chaos of colonization and collapse.”

**Third illustration: France in 1958**

It may seem paradoxical to mention a story involving General de Gaulle as an illustration of vassal states for during his 11 years as president of France he has done more than any other French leader to remove his country from the subservient situation that it had with respect to the United States when he came to power in May 1958. Precisely for that reason the following story shows that so strong was (and still is) US influence that even someone like him had to give “guarantees”.

In May 1958, that is to say, in the process of coming back to power General de Gaulle found it necessary to make a pledge about keeping France within NATO. This is what can be learned from the following account given by the US Embassy in Paris. The following account is excerpted from the “Foreign Relations of the United States”, an official publication of the US State Department.

On 21 May 1958 Mr. Henri Tournet, an aide of General de Gaulle, accompanied by Colonel Sternberg, Executive Officer of MAAG (Military Assistance Advisory Group) in France, visited the US Embassy. He gave guarantees re-

<footnote n="24">²⁴Sources: Mackerras 1982, p. 422, Shanghai News 26 November 1950, p. 2, Zhang 2002, p. 97.</footnote>
During the Pacific War, China was an important ally for the United States, in particular because the Nationalist government gave the permission to open airfields from where US bombers could carry out raids on Japanese cities.

After the end of the war, the economic situation of the KMT government was difficult which put it in the situation of a vassal state dependent upon the aid and good will of the US government. This situation was clearly revealed by the terms of the “Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation” signed on 4 November 1946 by Chinese and US representatives.

In China the terms of the treaty brought about a wave of protests. Many Chinese businessmen denounced the treaty as being detrimental to China economic interests. Because of the difference in the level of economic development reached by China and the United States the manager of the Minsheng Shipping Company, He Shiyan, compared the treaty to an agreement between an adult and a boy in which each is supposed to carry a load of 20 pounds in a supposedly equal race. The “Shanghai News” said that the treaty robbed China of its customs and taxation rights<fnref n="24" />.

The Chinese Communist Party designated November 4 as “National Humiliation Day” in the Communist-controlled area. On February 1, 1947, the Central Committee of the Communist Party declared it would refuse to acknowledge any treacherous treaties signed by the Kuomintang government, adding that the policy of the KMT government is contrary to the will of the Chinese people, and is pushing China into the chaos of colonization and collapse.”

**Third illustration: France in 1958**

It may seem paradoxical to mention a story involving General de Gaulle as an illustration of vassal states for during his 11 years as president of France he has done more than any other French leader to remove his country from the subservient situation that it had with respect to the United States when he came to power in May 1958. Precisely for that reason the following story shows that so strong was (and still is) US influence that even someone like him had to give “guarantees”.

In May 1958, that is to say, in the process of coming back to power General de Gaulle found it necessary to make a pledge about keeping France within NATO. This is what can be learned from the following account given by the US Embassy in Paris. The following account is excerpted from the “Foreign Relations of the United States”, an official publication of the US State Department.

On 21 May 1958 Mr. Henri Tournet, an aide of General de Gaulle, accompanied by Colonel Sternberg, Executive Officer of MAAG (Military Assistance Advisory Group) in France, visited the US Embassy. He gave guarantees re-

<footnote n="24">²⁴Sources: Mackerras 1982, p. 422, Shanghai News 26 November 1950, p. 2, Zhang 2002, p. 97.</footnote>
garding de Gaulle’s position on NATO that allowed the embassy to write to the State Department (on 1 June) “We have been assured from so many sources that De Gaulle will continue the policy of supporting NATO”. (FRUS, 1958-1960, France)

Indeed, that is what he did during his first term. France left NATO only 7 years later during the second term of President de Gaulle.

## Why are the European countries vassal states of the US?

The European Union comprises countries (e.g. Britain, France and Germany) who had been leading world powers in the past. Can they really be considered as US vassal states and why?

In what follows we summarize some of the facts but readers who would like to better understand how this situation arose are encouraged to read a volume especially devoted to this question. Written by one of the authors (B.R.) and entitled “How Europe became an American turf”, it is available online (particularly on the “WayBack Machine” website) and in several University libraries.

### Necessity of a deterrence force

The fundamental reason of the subservient situation of the European nations lies in their incapacity to ensure their own defense. France and Great Britain are the only European countries to have deterrent forces but the British force is highly dependent on the US because it relies on the submarine launched Trident missile which is made and maintained in the US. This leaves France as the only European nation who theoretically could have a independent foreign policy and actually, this was indeed the case under President de Gaulle that is to say from 1958 to 1969.

One could argue that it is quite possible to have an independent foreign policy without possessing a deterrence force. After all, Switzerland has no deterrence force, is not a member of NATO and seems to enjoy a fairly high degree of independence as attested by the fact that this country did not take part in any of the military campaigns led by the US in recent decades. Switzerland is a neutral country but this alone would not be sufficient to guaranty its independence. As a matter of fact, it does not need the US nuclear umbrella because it has no declared enemies<fnref n="25" />. The example of South Korea shows clearly that a nation can be threatened even by a close neighbor and in that case the US deterrence umbrella becomes essential.

Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea and more recently Turkey (Taiwan should also be added to this list, see below) are industrialised countries which

<footnote n="25">²⁵Nevertheless, Switzerland has introduced a regulation according to which each new house should have a small anti-atomic shelter in its basement.</footnote>
garding de Gaulle’s position on NATO that allowed the embassy to write to the State Department (on 1 June) “We have been assured from so many sources that De Gaulle will continue the policy of supporting NATO”. (FRUS, 1958-1960, France)

Indeed, that is what he did during his first term. France left NATO only 7 years later during the second term of President de Gaulle.

## Why are the European countries vassal states of the US?

The European Union comprises countries (e.g. Britain, France and Germany) who had been leading world powers in the past. Can they really be considered as US vassal states and why?

In what follows we summarize some of the facts but readers who would like to better understand how this situation arose are encouraged to read a volume especially devoted to this question. Written by one of the authors (B.R.) and entitled “How Europe became an American turf”, it is available online (particularly on the “WayBack Machine” website) and in several University libraries.

### Necessity of a deterrence force

The fundamental reason of the subservient situation of the European nations lies in their incapacity to ensure their own defense. France and Great Britain are the only European countries to have deterrent forces but the British force is highly dependent on the US because it relies on the submarine launched Trident missile which is made and maintained in the US. This leaves France as the only European nation who theoretically could have a independent foreign policy and actually, this was indeed the case under President de Gaulle that is to say from 1958 to 1969.

One could argue that it is quite possible to have an independent foreign policy without possessing a deterrence force. After all, Switzerland has no deterrence force, is not a member of NATO and seems to enjoy a fairly high degree of independence as attested by the fact that this country did not take part in any of the military campaigns led by the US in recent decades. Switzerland is a neutral country but this alone would not be sufficient to guaranty its independence. As a matter of fact, it does not need the US nuclear umbrella because it has no declared enemies<fnref n="25" />. The example of South Korea shows clearly that a nation can be threatened even by a close neighbor and in that case the US deterrence umbrella becomes essential.

Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea and more recently Turkey (Taiwan should also be added to this list, see below) are industrialised countries which

<footnote n="25">²⁵Nevertheless, Switzerland has introduced a regulation according to which each new house should have a small anti-atomic shelter in its basement.</footnote>
would have the technical capability to develop a nuclear deterrent force. The fact that all these close US allies renounced to possess one is likely the result of US pressure. Through the articles published in the “New York Times” in the wake of the first French nuclear test of 13 February 1960 one realizes immediately that the State Department was very unhappy about it. Comparatively, the comments made in the same newspaper after the first Chinese nuclear test of 16 October 1964 were much more moderate.

## The interesting case of Taiwan’s nuclear program

Taiwan is quite an interesting case because it shows that even when a close US ally tries repeatedly to develop nuclear weapons it is not allowed to do so. Incidentally, it also shows that for Taiwan the real choice is not between becoming a province of China and independence but rather between being a Chinese province or a vassal state of the United States. Before we start with this story it should be observed that the account<sup>26</sup> is incomplete in the sense that we do not know what means were used by the US to compell Taiwan to stop its program. After all, at that time Taiwan had the status of an independent country which was not only a member of the United Nations but even one of the five permanent members of the Security Council.

After the Chinese nuclear test Taiwan (then, the only Chinese entity recognized by western countries) started to develop a nuclear weapon program. In 1969, Canada sold to Taiwan a heavy-water nuclear research reactor. In this respect it can be recalled that the Trudeau government recognized the Peoples Republic of China in 1970, that is to say 9 years before the US. Taiwan was also able to buy low-grade plutonium from the US. The reactor went critical in 1973, and Taiwan set about creating a stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium.

Needless to say, Taiwans nuclear program was under careful surveillance by the United States. Washington ensured that the Taiwanese reactor fell under the control of the “International Atomic Energy Agency” (IAEA) which would prevent diversion of nuclear fuel for the purpose of building a weapon. On 25 October 1971 Taiwan is expelled from the United Nations (and also from IAEA) and its seat is given to the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China.

In 1976-1977, the IAEA inspected the activities at the military-run “Institute for Nuclear Energy Research” and discovered discrepancies in the Taiwanese program, an observation which triggered a US protest. Under US pressure (what pressure we do not know), in September 1976, the Taiwanese government promised to “henceforth not engage in any activities relating to reprocessing” (which referred to the production of weapon-grade plutonium).

<footnote n="26"><sup>26</sup>Based mostly on “nationalinterest.org” and Wikipedia articles.</footnote>
would have the technical capability to develop a nuclear deterrent force. The fact that all these close US allies renounced to possess one is likely the result of US pressure. Through the articles published in the “New York Times” in the wake of the first French nuclear test of 13 February 1960 one realizes immediately that the State Department was very unhappy about it. Comparatively, the comments made in the same newspaper after the first Chinese nuclear test of 16 October 1964 were much more moderate.

## The interesting case of Taiwan’s nuclear program

Taiwan is quite an interesting case because it shows that even when a close US ally tries repeatedly to develop nuclear weapons it is not allowed to do so. Incidentally, it also shows that for Taiwan the real choice is not between becoming a province of China and independence but rather between being a Chinese province or a vassal state of the United States. Before we start with this story it should be observed that the account<fnref n="26" /> is incomplete in the sense that we do not know what means were used by the US to compell Taiwan to stop its program. After all, at that time Taiwan had the status of an independent country which was not only a member of the United Nations but even one of the five permanent members of the Security Council.

After the Chinese nuclear test Taiwan (then, the only Chinese entity recognized by western countries) started to develop a nuclear weapon program. In 1969, Canada sold to Taiwan a heavy-water nuclear research reactor. In this respect it can be recalled that the Trudeau government recognized the Peoples Republic of China in 1970, that is to say 9 years before the US. Taiwan was also able to buy low-grade plutonium from the US. The reactor went critical in 1973, and Taiwan set about creating a stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium.

Needless to say, Taiwans nuclear program was under careful surveillance by the United States. Washington ensured that the Taiwanese reactor fell under the control of the “International Atomic Energy Agency” (IAEA) which would prevent diversion of nuclear fuel for the purpose of building a weapon. On 25 October 1971 Taiwan is expelled from the United Nations (and also from IAEA) and its seat is given to the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China.

In 1976-1977, the IAEA inspected the activities at the military-run “Institute for Nuclear Energy Research” and discovered discrepancies in the Taiwanese program, an observation which triggered a US protest. Under US pressure (what pressure we do not know), in September 1976, the Taiwanese government promised to “henceforth not engage in any activities relating to reprocessing” (which referred to the production of weapon-grade plutonium).

<footnote n="26">²⁶Based mostly on “nationalinterest.org” and Wikipedia articles.</footnote>
Despite that promise, in 1978 the US detected again a secret uranium-reprocessing program, and forced Taiwan to stop it (how, we do not know). After that Taiwan's nuclear weapons program went into a period of dormancy but in the mid-1980s, the program was restarted. In December 1987, Colonel Chang Hsien-yi, the deputy director of the program and a longtime CIA asset<fnref n="27" />, defected to the United States with proof of Taiwan's nuclear program. The material was used to confront the Taiwanese government, which ended its nuclear program once and for all in 1988 (what pressure was applied, again we do not know). At this time Taiwan was thought to be less than two years away from a bomb.

During the 19951996 Taiwan Strait crisis, then Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui proposed to reactivate the program, but was forced to back down a few days later.

What kind of pressure did the US use to prevent Taiwan from going ahead with its nuclear weapon program. One possible threat was certainly to cut the US supply of conventional weapons and spare parts. This reminds us that if a country is entirely dependent upon one weapon supplier it can hardly claim to be independent. That is why many countries (e.g. India or Pakistan) prefer to rely on a range of suppliers rather than on a single one.

A last incident should be mentioned.

According to the US Department of Defense (and reported in the "Washington Post" of 26 March 2008), in August 2006 four secret nuclear missile fuses for Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles were mistakenly shipped from a warehouse in Utah to Taiwan. The mistake was discovered only 18 months later. These fuses help trigger nuclear warheads as the missiles near their point of impact. One American expert made the following comment. "Imagine how we would feel if the Russians accidentally shipped warhead fuses to Tehran. It would be hard for them to convince us that it was a mistake." The fuses were returned to the US but 18 months was of course more than enough to duplicate the technology.

Taiwan is protected against Chinese missiles by a "Patriot Advanced Capability 3" (PAC-3) defensive missile systems bought from Lookheed Martin at a cost of $921 million (Taipei Times 2 February 2012).

## NATO

It is often said that NATO is an organization dominated by the United States. In order to find out if this is really true one can try two different procedures. The first is The first is to observe that an alliance between unequal partner inevitably results

<footnote n="27">²⁷According to James Lilley, a former US ambassador and CIA station chief in Beijing, the operation was a geat success for the State Department. He described it in the following terms (Chicago Tribune 21 DEcember 1997). "You pick a comer, put the right case officer on him and recruit him on an ideological basis, although money was also involved. Then, in the early 1980s, it began to pay off.</footnote>
Despite that promise, in 1978 the US detected again a secret uranium-reprocessing program, and forced Taiwan to stop it (how, we do not know). After that Taiwan's nuclear weapons program went into a period of dormancy but in the mid-1980s, the program was restarted. In December 1987, Colonel Chang Hsien-yi, the deputy director of the program and a longtime CIA asset<fnref n="27" />, defected to the United States with proof of Taiwan's nuclear program. The material was used to confront the Taiwanese government, which ended its nuclear program once and for all in 1988 (what pressure was applied, again we do not know). At this time Taiwan was thought to be less than two years away from a bomb.

During the 19951996 Taiwan Strait crisis, then Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui proposed to reactivate the program, but was forced to back down a few days later.

What kind of pressure did the US use to prevent Taiwan from going ahead with its nuclear weapon program. One possible threat was certainly to cut the US supply of conventional weapons and spare parts. This reminds us that if a country is entirely dependent upon one weapon supplier it can hardly claim to be independent. That is why many countries (e.g. India or Pakistan) prefer to rely on a range of suppliers rather than on a single one.

A last incident should be mentioned.

According to the US Department of Defense (and reported in the "Washington Post" of 26 March 2008), in August 2006 four secret nuclear missile fuses for Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles were mistakenly shipped from a warehouse in Utah to Taiwan. The mistake was discovered only 18 months later. These fuses help trigger nuclear warheads as the missiles near their point of impact. One American expert made the following comment. "Imagine how we would feel if the Russians accidentally shipped warhead fuses to Tehran. It would be hard for them to convince us that it was a mistake." The fuses were returned to the US but 18 months was of course more than enough to duplicate the technology.

Taiwan is protected against Chinese missiles by a "Patriot Advanced Capability 3" (PAC-3) defensive missile systems bought from Lookheed Martin at a cost of $921 million (Taipei Times 2 February 2012).

## NATO

It is often said that NATO is an organization dominated by the United States. In order to find out if this is really true one can try two different procedures. The first is The first is to observe that an alliance between unequal partner inevitably results

<footnote n="27">²⁷According to James Lilley, a former US ambassador and CIA station chief in Beijing, the operation was a geat success for the State Department. He described it in the following terms (Chicago Tribune 21 DEcember 1997). "You pick a comer, put the right case officer on him and recruit him on an ideological basis, although money was also involved. Then, in the early 1980s, it began to pay off.</footnote>
in the *de facto* domination of the strongest partner. The second method is to analyze
the text of the Treaty. What do these two methods tell us?

Unequal partners

In terms of military power the United States is by far the leading power, not only
among NATO members but worldwide. Washington's military spending ($600 bil-
lion in 2015) is nearly three times that of all other NATO members combined. On
the world stage, the $600 billion represent three times the military spending of China
($212 billion) whereas the combined spending of the other major powers (Russia, In-
dia, France, the UK, Saudi Arabia) amounts to only $354 billion. Moreover, the US
weapon production exceeds also by far that of all other nations combined. Under
such conditions there can be little doubt that the US is in a dominant position, not
only among NATO countries but also worldwide.

Historically, one can observe that the founding members of NATO (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom) were all occupied (partially or totally) by US troops during or after the Second World War. On the contrary, if one considers countries which were not occupied by US troops such as Finland, Ireland, Spain or Sweden none of them were among the founding members.

*Who is in command?*

At the head of NATO there are three positions.

* The “Supreme Allied Commander Europe” (SACEUR) who is a four-star US general appointed by the President of the United States. Since 1950, some 17 four-star US generals have held the SACEUR position. The first one was General Eisenhower and the present (October 2017) SACEUR is US General Curtis M. Scaparrotti. The SACEUR is the commanding officer of Allied Command Operations.

* The “Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe”

* The Secretary General of NATO.

The last two positions are usually occupied by non-Americans. In the media the name of the Secretary General appears very often whereas the name of the SACEUR is rarely mentioned. Whether intentional or not this gives the false impression that NATO is a multi-national organization among equal members. In fact, as far as military operations are concerned, it is the SACEUR who is in command, not his deputy and even less the Secretary General who, most often, is a civilian.

Naturally, because the North Atlantic Treaty itself was written by diplomats, it will
also, as far as possible, convey the impression that all members enjoy the same rights.

The Lisbon Treaty (EU Constitution)

Most countries of the European Union (EU) are also NATO members but a few (e.g.
in the *de facto* domination of the strongest partner. The second method is to analyze
the text of the Treaty. What do these two methods tell us?

Unequal partners

In terms of military power the United States is by far the leading power, not only
among NATO members but worldwide. Washington's military spending ($600 bil-
lion in 2015) is nearly three times that of all other NATO members combined. On
the world stage, the $600 billion represent three times the military spending of China
($212 billion) whereas the combined spending of the other major powers (Russia, In-
dia, France, the UK, Saudi Arabia) amounts to only $354 billion. Moreover, the US
weapon production exceeds also by far that of all other nations combined. Under
such conditions there can be little doubt that the US is in a dominant position, not
only among NATO countries but also worldwide.

Historically, one can observe that the founding members of NATO (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom) were all occupied (partially or totally) by US troops during or after the Second World War. On the contrary, if one considers countries which were not occupied by US troops such as Finland, Ireland, Spain or Sweden none of them were among the founding members.

*Who is in command?*

At the head of NATO there are three positions.

* The “Supreme Allied Commander Europe” (SACEUR) who is a four-star US general appointed by the President of the United States. Since 1950, some 17 four-star US generals have held the SACEUR position. The first one was General Eisenhower and the present (October 2017) SACEUR is US General Curtis M. Scaparrotti. The SACEUR is the commanding officer of Allied Command Operations.

* The “Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe”

* The Secretary General of NATO.

The last two positions are usually occupied by non-Americans. In the media the name of the Secretary General appears very often whereas the name of the SACEUR is rarely mentioned. Whether intentional or not this gives the false impression that NATO is a multi-national organization among equal members. In fact, as far as military operations are concerned, it is the SACEUR who is in command, not his deputy and even less the Secretary General who, most often, is a civilian.

Naturally, because the North Atlantic Treaty itself was written by diplomats, it will
also, as far as possible, convey the impression that all members enjoy the same rights.

The Lisbon Treaty (EU Constitution)

Most countries of the European Union (EU) are also NATO members but a few (e.g.
Sweden) are not. What does the Lisbon Treaty (which serves as the EU Constitution) say about NATO. As observed above, treaties are written by diplomats whose job it is to say everything in the softest possible way. Therefore, one should not be surprised that the Lisbonne Treaty contains a fairly vague statement (Ch.2, Section 2, Article 42, Number 2, Second paragraph):

> The policy of the Union shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States [i.e. those who are members of NATO] which see their common defence realised in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and be compatible with the common security and defence policy established within that framework.

In short, this article says that the foreign policy of the European Union must be compatible with the objectives of NATO, an organization dominated by a country which is not part of the EU. Is this not, from the very start, an admission of powerlessness?

## Creation of networks of vassal states

It is because the creation of networks of vassal states is a key element of any containment policy that we will now consider their creation in more detail.

### Creation of vassal states

In the process delineated in Fig. 4.1a,b the most difficult part is certainly the creation of vassal states which are the building blocks of the whole construction. Military occupation offered an excellent opportunity as shown in Fig. 4.1c.

After the war the Military Assistance Advisory Groups played a particularly important role.

### Role of the Military Assistance Advisory Groups (MAAG)

After World War II the ECA (Economic Cooperation Administration) envoys and the MAAG officers played an important role for a very simple reason.

The US embassy could not interfere openly in the domestic affairs of the country but the ECA and MAAG officers could because their role was precisely to assist and advise. The function of the ECA officers was to control how the funding of the Marshall Plan was used; similarly the function of the MAAG officers was to control how the US military aid was used. In fact, under this pretext their role was much broader.

Contrary to the ECA officers whose role ended with the Marshall plan, the role of the MAAGs extends to the present day for military aid, advice and control is still continuing in the framework of NATO.

The importance of the mostly covert role played by the MAAGs is revealed by the
Sweden) are not. What does the Lisbon Treaty (which serves as the EU Constitution) say about NATO. As observed above, treaties are written by diplomats whose job it is to say everything in the softest possible way. Therefore, one should not be surprised that the Lisbonne Treaty contains a fairly vague statement (Ch.2, Section 2, Article 42, Number 2, Second paragraph):

> The policy of the Union shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States [i.e. those who are members of NATO] which see their common defence realised in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and be compatible with the common security and defence policy established within that framework.

In short, this article says that the foreign policy of the European Union must be compatible with the objectives of NATO, an organization dominated by a country which is not part of the EU. Is this not, from the very start, an admission of powerlessness?

# Creation of networks of vassal states

It is because the creation of networks of vassal states is a key element of any containment policy that we will now consider their creation in more detail.

## Creation of vassal states

In the process delineated in Fig. 4.1a,b the most difficult part is certainly the creation of vassal states which are the building blocks of the whole construction. Military occupation offered an excellent opportunity as shown in Fig. 4.1c.

After the war the Military Assistance Advisory Groups played a particularly important role.

## Role of the Military Assistance Advisory Groups (MAAG)

After World War II the ECA (Economic Cooperation Administration) envoys and the MAAG officers played an important role for a very simple reason.

The US embassy could not interfere openly in the domestic affairs of the country but the ECA and MAAG officers could because their role was precisely to assist and advise. The function of the ECA officers was to control how the funding of the Marshall Plan was used; similarly the function of the MAAG officers was to control how the US military aid was used. In fact, under this pretext their role was much broader.

Contrary to the ECA officers whose role ended with the Marshall plan, the role of the MAAGs extends to the present day for military aid, advice and control is still continuing in the framework of NATO.

The importance of the mostly covert role played by the MAAGs is revealed by the
<figure><img src="image_29.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1a The first two steps in the creation of a containment network.** The reference to the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and PRC (People's Republic of China) shows that the figure was drawn for the case of the Cold War between the United States and the Communist bloc. However, very similar methods were used against other adversaries of the United States, for instance Cuba after 1960 or Iran after 1979. In the case of Cuba, the network would be the OAS (Organization of American States). Although in the diagram the network is labelled "network of vassal states", it may also include a few independent (also called non-aligned) states. The COCOM acronym means "COordinating COMmittee for Multilateral Export Controls"; its purpose was to enforce the trade embargo. The "Council of Europe" was a loose organization which promoted human rights and democracy and publicized their violations in the countries of the Communist bloc; it was a very effective tool for public relations campaigns. In 2017, NATO had 28 member states whereas the Council of Europe had 47 member states. In July 1996 the COCOM was replaced by the so-called "Wassenaar Arrangement" (Wassenaar is the name of a Dutch city near The Hague) which has basically the same purpose. In 2017 this organization had 41 member states (including 27 of the 28 EU countries).</figcaption></figure>

fact that at the US National Archives (called NARA which means “National Archives and Records Administration”) the archives of these groups are still not publically available even for their activity in the 1950s, that is to say 60 years ago,

**Similarity of containment networks in 1960 and 2015**
<figure><img src="image_31.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1a The first two steps in the creation of a containment network.** The reference to the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and PRC (People's Republic of China) shows that the figure was drawn for the case of the Cold War between the United States and the Communist bloc. However, very similar methods were used against other adversaries of the United States, for instance Cuba after 1960 or Iran after 1979. In the case of Cuba, the network would be the OAS (Organization of American States). Although in the diagram the network is labelled "network of vassal states", it may also include a few independent (also called non-aligned) states. The COCOM acronym means "COordinating COMmittee for Multilateral Export Controls"; its purpose was to enforce the trade embargo. The "Council of Europe" was a loose organization which promoted human rights and democracy and publicized their violations in the countries of the Communist bloc; it was a very effective tool for public relations campaigns. In 2017, NATO had 28 member states whereas the Council of Europe had 47 member states. In July 1996 the COCOM was replaced by the so-called "Wassenaar Arrangement" (Wassenaar is the name of a Dutch city near The Hague) which has basically the same purpose. In 2017 this organization had 41 member states (including 27 of the 28 EU countries).</figcaption></figure>

fact that at the US National Archives (called NARA which means “National Archives and Records Administration”) the archives of these groups are still not publically available even for their activity in the 1950s, that is to say 60 years ago,

**Similarity of containment networks in 1960 and 2015**
Creation of a containment network (steps 3,4)

Step 3

Presenting
competitors
as
possible
aggressors

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

Step 4

Implementing
the
containment
policies

<figure><img src="image_31.png" /></figure>

**Fig. 4.1b Steps 3 and 4 in the creation of a containment network.** Once the network of vassal states has been created one must raise the level of hostility between the two sides. Clever public relations campaigns are a key element in this phase. Once the western allies have been convinced to stand against the adversary, the implementation of the containment measures can start. Such measures are of course adversary dependent. For small adversaries like Cuba, the Dominican Republic or Iraq it can be attempted invasion. For important countries it will be trade embargo, military pressure (e.g. locating nuclear warheads in allied countries) and clever public relations campaigns.

Once a network of vassal states is in existence it is of course tempting to use it in order to isolate, curb and squeeze possible adversaries. Fig. 4.1d,e show that there is a striking similarity in the containment networks set up around Russia and China in 1960 and 2015.

Some significant changes are the following.

1. The most important change concerns the countries which formed the Varsaw Pact until 1990, namely the Baltic States, Bulgaria, East Germany, Poland and Romania. All of them now belong to NATO. There is really a paradox in the fact that although NATO has become useless after 1991, instead of becoming smaller it has
Creation of a containment network (steps 3,4)

Step 3

Presenting
competitors
as
possible
aggressors

<figure><img src="image_32.png" /></figure>

Step 4

Implementing
the
containment
policies

<figure><img src="image_33.png" /></figure>

**Fig. 4.1b Steps 3 and 4 in the creation of a containment network.** Once the network of vassal states has been created one must raise the level of hostility between the two sides. Clever public relations campaigns are a key element in this phase. Once the western allies have been convinced to stand against the adversary, the implementation of the containment measures can start. Such measures are of course adversary dependent. For small adversaries like Cuba, the Dominican Republic or Iraq it can be attempted invasion. For important countries it will be trade embargo, military pressure (e.g. locating nuclear warheads in allied countries) and clever public relations campaigns.

Once a network of vassal states is in existence it is of course tempting to use it in order to isolate, curb and squeeze possible adversaries. Fig. 4.1d,e show that there is a striking similarity in the containment networks set up around Russia and China in 1960 and 2015.

Some significant changes are the following.

1. The most important change concerns the countries which formed the Varsaw Pact until 1990, namely the Baltic States, Bulgaria, East Germany, Poland and Romania. All of them now belong to NATO. There is really a paradox in the fact that although NATO has become useless after 1991, instead of becoming smaller it has
<figure><img src="image_32.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1c** Creation of vassal states. Italy was the first European country to be occupied. Subsequent occupations followed the same blueprint. This picture was drawn for Italy but there are many similar cases, e.g. Germany, Denmark, Japan, South Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq. The military occupation during World War II gave all authority to the allies to select the Italian leaders (in the political, administrative, education and media sectors) according to their wishes. Needless to say, the ability to speak English was also an important element of the selection process. The acronym MAAG means: "Military Assistance Advisory Group"; Inchochina was the name of Vietnam until 1954 at the time when it was a French colony. ROC means "Republic of Korea" (Taiwan); KMAG means: "Korean Military Advisory Group". The mission of the MAAGs was broader than just military. In a sense they took the succession of Civil Affairs Officers. There were (and still are) MAAGs in all western European countries. For instance in France MAAG officers played a role in the return to power of General de Gaulle (see text).</figcaption></figure>

swollen from 12 initial members to 28 in 2015.

2 The other changes concern individual countries, for instance Iran, Pakistan and Thailand were fairly close US allies in 1960 but are no longer.

3 On this map we omitted Taiwan for until Ms. Tsai Ing-wen became president in May 2016 there was an attempt for greater cooperation with the PRC. This came to an end after her election. During her visit to the United States before starting her campaign she had received plenty encouragements, if not from the US government at least from Congress members and former government members.

4 Another important change (but which does not appear on the maps) is that in 1960 Indonesia under President Sokarno was an ally of China. There was at that time a strong Communist Party in Indonesia in spite of the fact that it is a Muslim country. However in 1965 there was a terrible massacre not only of the Communists but also of trade union members and leftists. The US State Department contributed to this
<figure><img src="image_34.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1c** Creation of vassal states. Italy was the first European country to be occupied. Subsequent occupations followed the same blueprint. This picture was drawn for Italy but there are many similar cases, e.g. Germany, Denmark, Japan, South Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq. The military occupation during World War II gave all authority to the allies to select the Italian leaders (in the political, administrative, education and media sectors) according to their wishes. Needless to say, the ability to speak English was also an important element of the selection process. The acronym MAAG means: "Military Assistance Advisory Group"; Inchochina was the name of Vietnam until 1954 at the time when it was a French colony. ROC means "Republic of Korea" (Taiwan); KMAG means: "Korean Military Advisory Group". The mission of the MAAGs was broader than just military. In a sense they took the succession of Civil Affairs Officers. There were (and still are) MAAGs in all western European countries. For instance in France MAAG officers played a role in the return to power of General de Gaulle (see text).</figcaption></figure>

swollen from 12 initial members to 28 in 2015.

2 The other changes concern individual countries, for instance Iran, Pakistan and Thailand were fairly close US allies in 1960 but are no longer.

3 On this map we omitted Taiwan for until Ms. Tsai Ing-wen became president in May 2016 there was an attempt for greater cooperation with the PRC. This came to an end after her election. During her visit to the United States before starting her campaign she had received plenty encouragements, if not from the US government at least from Congress members and former government members.

4 Another important change (but which does not appear on the maps) is that in 1960 Indonesia under President Sokarno was an ally of China. There was at that time a strong Communist Party in Indonesia in spite of the fact that it is a Muslim country. However in 1965 there was a terrible massacre not only of the Communists but also of trade union members and leftists. The US State Department contributed to this
<figure><img src="image_33.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1d Containment networks during the Cold War (1960).** NATO means “North Atlantic Treaty Organization”. CENTO means “Central Treaty Organization” (Middle East). SEATO means “South East Asia Treaty Organization”. EEC means “European Economic Community” which was the name of the European Union when it was only a free trade zone. On this map Taiwan can hardly be omitted for in 1960 the “Republic of China” (ROC) was the only entity recognized by the US and a number of US allies. Source: *New York Times* 14 January 1963.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_34.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1e Containment networks in 2015.** In this case history really seems to repeat itself for with respect to 1960 there are only few changes in the countries taking part in the different networks.</figcaption></figure>

purge by compiling lists of leftist people which were then transmitted to the army and paramilitary groups who carried out the massacres. As always in such cases, the
<figure><img src="image_35.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1d Containment networks during the Cold War (1960).** NATO means “North Atlantic Treaty Organization”. CENTO means “Central Treaty Organization” (Middle East). SEATO means “South East Asia Treaty Organization”. EEC means “European Economic Community” which was the name of the European Union when it was only a free trade zone. On this map Taiwan can hardly be omitted for in 1960 the “Republic of China” (ROC) was the only entity recognized by the US and a number of US allies. Source: *New York Times* 14 January 1963.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.1e Containment networks in 2015.** In this case history really seems to repeat itself for with respect to 1960 there are only few changes in the countries taking part in the different networks.</figcaption></figure>

purge by compiling lists of leftist people which were then transmitted to the army and paramilitary groups who carried out the massacres. As always in such cases, the
death toll is not well known but it is of the order of 500,000.

## The Silk Road project in comparative perspective

To this day the Silk Road project is unique by its size and ambition. However, there have been other projects of economic development on a smaller scale. A parallel which comes to mind is the Marshall plan (1948–1952).

First, we discuss its political significance. Secondly we describe some of its economic aspects. Thirdly we explain why an infrastructure project in the European Union was, if not a complete failure, at least a missed opportunity. Finally, we devote a subsection to the language obstacle. This is a real problem in the European Union and will be an even more serious challenge in the Silk Road project.

### East-west political significance of the Marshall Plan (1948–1952)

The Marshall Plan remained confined to western Europe because Soviet pressure did not allow east European countries to take part. Therefore, there was little room for any interaction. One of the few signs of interaction can be found in the attitudes of the Communist parties in France and Italy, the two only western countries which had substantial Communist parties. They denounced the Marshall Plan as a machinery directed against the Soviet Union and claimed that its purpose was to “Americanize” western Europe. As we will see below this was not wrong but due to US influence on European media such protests were probably not well understood in the public and in any case they did not prevent the Marshall Plan from being a resounding American success.

In order to explain the main differences between the Marshall Plan and the Silk Road project it is first of all necessary to describe the Marshall Plan<fnref n="28" />.

### Economic aspects of the Marshall Plan

Seen from the American side, the Marshall Plan was basically a way to subsidize US companies. Our readers may perhaps be surprised by this statement because this is not the way it is seen usually as is indeed reflected in its official name “European Recovery Program”. However, this is a simple consequence of the fact that the Marshall Plan aid had to be used to purchase US goods. It would be a mistake to think that the funds could be freely used by the respective countries. In fact, they were administrated jointly by the local governments and the “Economic Cooperation Administration” (ECA). Each European capital had an ECA envoy, generally a prominent American businessman, who would advise on the process. The ECA

<footnote n="28">²⁸The account given in the next subsection is mostly based on the Wikipedia article entitled “Marshall Plan”. As most Wikipedia articles it is fairly detailed and if, instead of reading only the summary given at the beginning, one has the patience to read it completely one can indeed get a fairly satisfactory account.</footnote>
death toll is not well known but it is of the order of 500,000.

## The Silk Road project in comparative perspective

To this day the Silk Road project is unique by its size and ambition. However, there have been other projects of economic development on a smaller scale. A parallel which comes to mind is the Marshall plan (1948–1952).

First, we discuss its political significance. Secondly we describe some of its economic aspects. Thirdly we explain why an infrastructure project in the European Union was, if not a complete failure, at least a missed opportunity. Finally, we devote a subsection to the language obstacle. This is a real problem in the European Union and will be an even more serious challenge in the Silk Road project.

### East-west political significance of the Marshall Plan (1948–1952)

The Marshall Plan remained confined to western Europe because Soviet pressure did not allow east European countries to take part. Therefore, there was little room for any interaction. One of the few signs of interaction can be found in the attitudes of the Communist parties in France and Italy, the two only western countries which had substantial Communist parties. They denounced the Marshall Plan as a machinery directed against the Soviet Union and claimed that its purpose was to “Americanize” western Europe. As we will see below this was not wrong but due to US influence on European media such protests were probably not well understood in the public and in any case they did not prevent the Marshall Plan from being a resounding American success.

In order to explain the main differences between the Marshall Plan and the Silk Road project it is first of all necessary to describe the Marshall Plan<fnref n="28" />.

### Economic aspects of the Marshall Plan

Seen from the American side, the Marshall Plan was basically a way to subsidize US companies. Our readers may perhaps be surprised by this statement because this is not the way it is seen usually as is indeed reflected in its official name “European Recovery Program”. However, this is a simple consequence of the fact that the Marshall Plan aid had to be used to purchase US goods. It would be a mistake to think that the funds could be freely used by the respective countries. In fact, they were administrated jointly by the local governments and the “Economic Cooperation Administration” (ECA). Each European capital had an ECA envoy, generally a prominent American businessman, who would advise on the process. The ECA

<footnote n="28">²⁸The account given in the next subsection is mostly based on the Wikipedia article entitled “Marshall Plan”. As most Wikipedia articles it is fairly detailed and if, instead of reading only the summary given at the beginning, one has the patience to read it completely one can indeed get a fairly satisfactory account.</footnote>
was a purely US government agency controlled by the US State Department and the Department of Commerce. Its head was the former president of “Studebaker”, a car company, and its members were mostly US businessmen.

It is often said (and in fact this sentence can be read in the Wikipedia article about the Marshall Plan) that the United States *donated* $17 billion to help the recovery of the European countries. This is not really true however.

* Countries who had not been involved in the war and had not suffered from it, such as Ireland, Sweden or Switzerland, were also included. This already suggests that the objectives of the Plan were broader than just recovery. On the contrary, some countries which had been involved in the war were not included. A case in point was Finland which had been involved in the war on the side of Germany.

* Another frequent misconception is to think that all the funds were just grants. In fact, the funds were partly grants and partly loans. The percentage of the grant (i.e. "gift") fraction was country-dependent. Here are a few examples. For Germany the funds were 100% loans although the amount to be repaid was reduced in 1953; for Ireland the funds were 88% loans; as a result, in 1969 the Irish Marshall Plan debt still represented 62% of the total Irish foreign debt; for the UK the loan fraction represented only 15%.

* In parallel with the Marshall Plan there was also a "Technical Assistance Program". This program funded 24,000 European engineers, leaders, and industrialists to visit America and tour America's factories and universities. This program also allowed hundreds of American technical advisers to be sent to Europe where they would teach the latest statistical methods to European managers. However useful these exchanges may have been, they were of course asymmetrical and their end result was to Americanize Europe. For the best and for the worse.

* A last word is in order regarding Germany. In this case the Marshall Plan was kind of a paradox. Indeed, at the same time as this recovery aid was received, the American de-industrialization program of Germany (the so-called Morgenthau plan) was still continuing which means that factories were dismantled, taken away or destroyed if they could not be removed. A typical example of this activity was the Blohm & Voss shipyard in Hamburg where explosive demolition was still taking place as late as 1949. Everything that could not be dismantled was blown up (Wikipedia article entitled "Morgenthau Plan"). By 1950 some 700 manufacturing plants in western Germany had been removed or destroyed.

## Comparison between the Marshall Plan and the Silk Road project

In one sense the Marshall Plan was much more ambitious than the Silk Road project and in another it was much less.

It was more ambitious because its objective was political as well as economic. Its
was a purely US government agency controlled by the US State Department and the Department of Commerce. Its head was the former president of “Studebaker”, a car company, and its members were mostly US businessmen.

It is often said (and in fact this sentence can be read in the Wikipedia article about the Marshall Plan) that the United States *donated* $17 billion to help the recovery of the European countries. This is not really true however.

* Countries who had not been involved in the war and had not suffered from it, such as Ireland, Sweden or Switzerland, were also included. This already suggests that the objectives of the Plan were broader than just recovery. On the contrary, some countries which had been involved in the war were not included. A case in point was Finland which had been involved in the war on the side of Germany.

* Another frequent misconception is to think that all the funds were just grants. In fact, the funds were partly grants and partly loans. The percentage of the grant (i.e. "gift") fraction was country-dependent. Here are a few examples. For Germany the funds were 100% loans although the amount to be repaid was reduced in 1953; for Ireland the funds were 88% loans; as a result, in 1969 the Irish Marshall Plan debt still represented 62% of the total Irish foreign debt; for the UK the loan fraction represented only 15%.

* In parallel with the Marshall Plan there was also a "Technical Assistance Program". This program funded 24,000 European engineers, leaders, and industrialists to visit America and tour America's factories and universities. This program also allowed hundreds of American technical advisers to be sent to Europe where they would teach the latest statistical methods to European managers. However useful these exchanges may have been, they were of course asymmetrical and their end result was to Americanize Europe. For the best and for the worse.

* A last word is in order regarding Germany. In this case the Marshall Plan was kind of a paradox. Indeed, at the same time as this recovery aid was received, the American de-industrialization program of Germany (the so-called Morgenthau plan) was still continuing which means that factories were dismantled, taken away or destroyed if they could not be removed. A typical example of this activity was the Blohm & Voss shipyard in Hamburg where explosive demolition was still taking place as late as 1949. Everything that could not be dismantled was blown up (Wikipedia article entitled "Morgenthau Plan"). By 1950 some 700 manufacturing plants in western Germany had been removed or destroyed.

## Comparison between the Marshall Plan and the Silk Road project

In one sense the Marshall Plan was much more ambitious than the Silk Road project and in another it was much less.

It was more ambitious because its objective was political as well as economic. Its
purpose was to secure an enduring American influence in Europe. One must recognize that it succeeded very well. Some 67 years later the 16 countries which participated in the Marshall Plan are still faithful US allies; most of them are even part of NATO, a military organization completely controlled by the US government. The creation of the European Union did not change anything in this respect, quite on the contrary.

From an economic perspective the Silk Road project is much more ambitious than the Marshall Plan because it aims at *integrated development*. For instance a railroad link between China and Europe can come into existence only if all the countries through which it must go are in agreement. In contrast, the Marshall Plan was restricted to individual national development.

Land Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road
Both roads start in Quangzhou.

<figure><img src="image_35.png" /></figure>

"New Silk Road" models participated
in an outdoor show on the island
of Hainan. (Xinhua News 24 Nov 2012)

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.2 Silk Road projects.** This article of the Xinhua news agency was probably one of the first to mention the Silk Road project. It was published in November 2012, shortly after Xi Jinping had become party leader. At that time, the project was still very provisional; the left-hand map combines the historical silks roads and the new projects. The right-hand picture illustrates a lively style of promotion which at that time was fairly new in Chinese political public relations campaigns. Source: Xinhua, 24 November 2012.</figcaption></figure>

## Three other parallels for the Silk Road project

Apart from the Marshall plan three other parallels can be mentioned

* During the “New Deal” period under president Franklin Roosevelt (1933–1944) important infrastructure development projects were undertaken in the USA. They were continued by Roosevelt’s successors until the end of the 1960s approximately. The aim of these projects was to ensure integrated national development altogether from the East to the West coast and from Alaska to New Mexico.

* During the past three decades China has carried out infrastructure work in African countries. Characteristically, most western media present this Chinese presence in Africa in a negative light. This is probably a harbinger of what we will read and hear about the Silk Road once the project will be more advanced.
purpose was to secure an enduring American influence in Europe. One must recognize that it succeeded very well. Some 67 years later the 16 countries which participated in the Marshall Plan are still faithful US allies; most of them are even part of NATO, a military organization completely controlled by the US government. The creation of the European Union did not change anything in this respect, quite on the contrary.

From an economic perspective the Silk Road project is much more ambitious than the Marshall Plan because it aims at *integrated development*. For instance a railroad link between China and Europe can come into existence only if all the countries through which it must go are in agreement. In contrast, the Marshall Plan was restricted to individual national development.

Land Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road
Both roads start in Quangzhou.

<figure><img src="image_37.png" /></figure>

"New Silk Road" models participated
in an outdoor show on the island
of Hainan. (Xinhua News 24 Nov 2012)

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.2 Silk Road projects.** This article of the Xinhua news agency was probably one of the first to mention the Silk Road project. It was published in November 2012, shortly after Xi Jinping had become party leader. At that time, the project was still very provisional; the left-hand map combines the historical silks roads and the new projects. The right-hand picture illustrates a lively style of promotion which at that time was fairly new in Chinese political public relations campaigns. Source: Xinhua, 24 November 2012.</figcaption></figure>

## Three other parallels for the Silk Road project

Apart from the Marshall plan three other parallels can be mentioned

* During the “New Deal” period under president Franklin Roosevelt (1933–1944) important infrastructure development projects were undertaken in the USA. They were continued by Roosevelt’s successors until the end of the 1960s approximately. The aim of these projects was to ensure integrated national development altogether from the East to the West coast and from Alaska to New Mexico.

* During the past three decades China has carried out infrastructure work in African countries. Characteristically, most western media present this Chinese presence in Africa in a negative light. This is probably a harbinger of what we will read and hear about the Silk Road once the project will be more advanced.
* Infrastructure development in the European Union. What could have been a splendid opportunity for integrated development was in fact botched for ideological reasons (see below)

With respect to the Silk Road project there are similarities but also great differences.

The most obvious similarity is of course the fact that these projects are about building new infrastructure but, as already said, the Silk Road project is much more ambitious in the sense that it aims at creating an integrated network of infrastructures across several independent countries. To our best knowledge there was no similar operation on such a large scale in the history of mankind. It is similar to what the Roman Empire had done in the Mediterranean area but on a much larger scale. In the case of the Roman Empire all the countries around the Mediterranean sea were part of the Roman empire. This made of course infrastructure development much easier than when many independent countries are involved.

## The missed opportunity of infrastructure development in the EU

Developing new infrastructure was also a facet of the policy of the European Union in admitting new members from southern and eastern Europe where infrastructures were notably inadequate. However, such plans consisted basically in funding national governments without ensuring any real integration at the European level. In this respect it was like the Marshall Plan. Setting up an integrated railroad network for the transportation of cargo and passengers would have been a great project but was probably ruled out by the neoliberal orientation of the European economic policy. Instead of promoting such a railroad network, the European Commission favored the privatization of railroads. Instead of advancing integration this policy contributed to segmentation. It was continued even after the British privatization program of railroads had shown how bad privatization works for transportation networks. In this connection one should recall that initially that is to say back in the 19th century all European railroad companies were private. It is only because one after another they went bankrupt that they had to be bailed out and were eventually nationalized. The same is true in the United States.

## A crucial challenge: surmounting the language obstacle

In a project which involves dozens of countries the language question plays a crucial role. If Chinese advisers and engineers cannot speak directly with national leaders the collaboration will not be very good. In Africa, the problem was somewhat simpler because through colonization English, French and Portuguese had become the main languages. Many Chinese students who learned French or Portuguese did so for the purpose of spending several years in the service of Chinese companies in African countries.
* Infrastructure development in the European Union. What could have been a splendid opportunity for integrated development was in fact botched for ideological reasons (see below)

With respect to the Silk Road project there are similarities but also great differences.

The most obvious similarity is of course the fact that these projects are about building new infrastructure but, as already said, the Silk Road project is much more ambitious in the sense that it aims at creating an integrated network of infrastructures across several independent countries. To our best knowledge there was no similar operation on such a large scale in the history of mankind. It is similar to what the Roman Empire had done in the Mediterranean area but on a much larger scale. In the case of the Roman Empire all the countries around the Mediterranean sea were part of the Roman empire. This made of course infrastructure development much easier than when many independent countries are involved.

## The missed opportunity of infrastructure development in the EU

Developing new infrastructure was also a facet of the policy of the European Union in admitting new members from southern and eastern Europe where infrastructures were notably inadequate. However, such plans consisted basically in funding national governments without ensuring any real integration at the European level. In this respect it was like the Marshall Plan. Setting up an integrated railroad network for the transportation of cargo and passengers would have been a great project but was probably ruled out by the neoliberal orientation of the European economic policy. Instead of promoting such a railroad network, the European Commission favored the privatization of railroads. Instead of advancing integration this policy contributed to segmentation. It was continued even after the British privatization program of railroads had shown how bad privatization works for transportation networks. In this connection one should recall that initially that is to say back in the 19th century all European railroad companies were private. It is only because one after another they went bankrupt that they had to be bailed out and were eventually nationalized. The same is true in the United States.

## A crucial challenge: surmounting the language obstacle

In a project which involves dozens of countries the language question plays a crucial role. If Chinese advisers and engineers cannot speak directly with national leaders the collaboration will not be very good. In Africa, the problem was somewhat simpler because through colonization English, French and Portuguese had become the main languages. Many Chinese students who learned French or Portuguese did so for the purpose of spending several years in the service of Chinese companies in African countries.
For the Silk Road project many more languages will be required. Fortunately, in
many former Soviet Republics Russian may serve as a bridge language.

The rest of this chapter is mostly devoted to the containment policy. There is indeed a mystery and a paradox there which needs to be explained. It consists in the fact that almost all countries which take part in the containment policy also accept US military bases on their territory. In the history of mankind this is probably the first time that one country has so many overseas military bases. Why do so many countries (including major powers like Japan, Germany, the UK, Spain or Italy<sup>29</sup> ) accept such bases on their territory is a first mystery. In addition it appears that the very existence of the bases make these countries politically dependent upon the United States. This is a second mystery.

Silk Road: resistance in the US and in western countries

Some US allies, and in particular the UK under Prime Minister David Cameron, have taken an active role in the creation of the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank” (AIIB).

On 24 October 2014, 21 Asian countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding the AIIB in Beijing<fnref n="30" />.

Then, some 5 months later, in early March 2015, the UK announced that it had decided to apply to join the Bank, becoming the first major Western country to do so. The decision was criticised by the US Obama Administration. A US government official told the “Financial Times” that the British decision was taken after “no consultation with the US.” In response, the UK indicated that the subject had been discussed between Chancellor Osborne and US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew for several months preceding the decision. Osborne announced that “the City of London would become the base for the first clearing house for the yuan outside Asia”. Several other European states, including Germany, France and Italy followed the UK’s decision to join the AIIB. The US opposition to the AIIB, as well as its attempt to dissuade allies from joining, was seen as a manifestation of its multifaceted containment strategy.

That was in 2014–2015.

In early 2018 the French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Beijing in succession. Both hailed the beginning of a close co-

<footnote n="29">²⁹As a matter of fact, the list of the countries which are of some strategic importance and do *not* harbor any US base is fairly short. Among them one can mention: China, France, India, Iran, Russia, Vietnam (for how long?).</footnote>

<footnote n="30">³⁰China, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, India, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Indonesia's joining was slightly delayed due to their new presidential administration not being able to review the membership in time. Indonesia signed the MOU on 25 November 2014. The US allegedly tried to keep Australia and South Korea from becoming prospective founding members. However, both Australia and South Korea applied to join the bank in March 2015.</footnote>
For the Silk Road project many more languages will be required. Fortunately, in
many former Soviet Republics Russian may serve as a bridge language.

The rest of this chapter is mostly devoted to the containment policy. There is indeed a mystery and a paradox there which needs to be explained. It consists in the fact that almost all countries which take part in the containment policy also accept US military bases on their territory. In the history of mankind this is probably the first time that one country has so many overseas military bases. Why do so many countries (including major powers like Japan, Germany, the UK, Spain or Italy<sup>29</sup> ) accept such bases on their territory is a first mystery. In addition it appears that the very existence of the bases make these countries politically dependent upon the United States. This is a second mystery.

Silk Road: resistance in the US and in western countries

Some US allies, and in particular the UK under Prime Minister David Cameron, have taken an active role in the creation of the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank” (AIIB).

On 24 October 2014, 21 Asian countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding the AIIB in Beijing<sup>30</sup>.

Then, some 5 months later, in early March 2015, the UK announced that it had decided to apply to join the Bank, becoming the first major Western country to do so. The decision was criticised by the US Obama Administration. A US government official told the “Financial Times” that the British decision was taken after “no consultation with the US.” In response, the UK indicated that the subject had been discussed between Chancellor Osborne and US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew for several months preceding the decision. Osborne announced that “the City of London would become the base for the first clearing house for the yuan outside Asia”. Several other European states, including Germany, France and Italy followed the UK’s decision to join the AIIB. The US opposition to the AIIB, as well as its attempt to dissuade allies from joining, was seen as a manifestation of its multifaceted containment strategy.

That was in 2014–2015.

In early 2018 the French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Beijing in succession. Both hailed the beginning of a close co-

<footnote n="29"><sup>29</sup>As a matter of fact, the list of the countries which are of some strategic importance and do *not* harbor any US base is fairly short. Among them one can mention: China, France, India, Iran, Russia, Vietnam (for how long?).</footnote>

<footnote n="30"><sup>30</sup>China, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, India, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Indonesia's joining was slightly delayed due to their new presidential administration not being able to review the membership in time. Indonesia signed the MOU on 25 November 2014. The US allegedly tried to keep Australia and South Korea from becoming prospective founding members. However, both Australia and South Korea applied to join the bank in March 2015.</footnote>