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<figure><img src="image_209.png" /></figure>

**Figure W15 | Predicted (by ForCEEPS) against observed satellite leaf area index (LAI) for all 340 RENECOFOR and ICP II validation inventories.** The y-axis shows the LAI predicted by the model from the stand inventory at the start of the simulation, while the x-axis represents the PROBA-V LAI value for the machining coordinate and inventory year, averaged between July, August and September. Stand points are color coded by dominant species (see legend in bottom left). The size of points shows inventory basal area. The dashed red-line is the 1:1 line; the black full line represents the regression line of the linear model between observed and predicted LAI, with confidence interval represented by the grey shaded area. Associated statistics in Table S6.

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<figure><img src="image_212.png" /><figcaption>**Figure W16 | Projected community compositions after long-term PHOREAU simulations.** For the 250 tested sites of the PNV validation, each pie graph represents the basal area repartition of simulated species after 2000 years (see legend in bottom left for species color code). Prediction success (according to PNV assumed dominant species) is represented by the color of the circle's outer border. Green border: sites for which the dominating species was accurately predicted. Yellow border: sites for which the second-ranked species was accurately predicted, but not the dominating species. Red border: sites for which neither the first-ranked nor second-ranked species were accurately predicted.</figcaption></figure>

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**Figure S20 | Diversity of height-to-diameter ratios among study sites.** For each species with sufficient data, for each of the 245 RENECOFOR and ICP II study sites, points show measured height against circumference of individual trees present in PHOREAU simulation inventories. Full lines, colored-coded by site, represent local-regression curves used to calculate height for trees with no height measurement. Height-to-diameter curves were interpolated for each plot using a LOESS method on tree measurements (not limited to simulation periods). The dashed red line represents the ForCEEPS species height-to-diameter formula. Predicted tree heights from the formula were evaluated against measured tree heights to produce associated statistics, detailed in Table S3.
<figure><img src="image_225.png" /></figure>

# 7 Code and data availability

Species parameters, as well as the dataset used for model evaluation at the European scale (climate and soil files, as well as tree inventories) can be downloaded from the following open access Zenodo archive: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15241618 (Postic and Morin, 2025a). Data used for the evaluation of eco-physiological processes at the local scale can be obtained upon request from the respective ICOS site PIs.

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A standalone version of the PHOREAU model, with an example dataset corresponding to the four ICOS sites used in the ecophysiological validation, can be downloaded from the following open access Zenodo archive: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15260689 (Postic and Morin, 2025b).

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# 8 Author contribution

XM, TP and NM conceptualized the study. TP designed the PHOREAU model, realized the evaluation protocol, and wrote the first draft. FC, TP, NM, XM, IC implemented the PHOREAU model in Capsis. HC, NM, JR, FP and FC developed SurEau and implemented the version in Capsis. JML, JMO, EJ, MC, DB, ND, GS furnished datasets for eco-physiological validation. LD contributed to model testing and figure design. All co-authors contributed to revising and writing the manuscript.

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# 9 Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

# 10 Financial support

This study has been financed by the project FISSA (forecasting forest socio-ecosystems' sensitivity and adaptation to climate change) (ANR-21-CE32-0010-01). Regarding SurEau's developments and integration in Capsis, the work was partly supported by the network 'PsiHub', funded by the ECODIV department of INRAE, the H2020 Project FORGENIUS (Improving access to FORest GENetic resources Information and services for end-USers) #862221 and the projects ANR TAW-TREE (ANR-23-CE01-0008) and DGF-ANR sTREssE : (ANR-24-CE92-0068).

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# 11 Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the ICP Forests program for providing the European scale inventory data (same dataset used in Morin et al., 2025), and the Office National des Forêts and the RENECOFOR team, particularly Manuel Nicolas and Marc Lanier, for providing their database. The ERA-5-Land database was provided by Copernicus with help from Victor Van der Meersch, and soil water retention data by the ESDAC database (Tóth et al., 2017). François Pimont contributed to the development of SurEau on the Capsis platform. The authors are also grateful to the Capsis modelling platform (http://www7.inra.fr/capsis/). The authors also wish to thank the teams involved in managing and collecting data from the ICOS sites: Damien Longepierre, Jean Kempf, Alexandre Morfin and Charlotte Girardin. Finally, the authors are thankful for the collaboration with Eva Gril and Jonathan Lenoir in integrating a new microclimate module in PHOREAU.

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