# First comparison of subsidence/uplift rates between Copernicus European Ground Motion Service data and long-term MIS 5.5 geological record in Mediterranean regions

Giovanni Luca Cardello, Giovanni Barreca, Carmelo Monaco, Marcello de Michele, Fabrizio Antonioli

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Giovanni Luca Cardello, Giovanni Barreca, Carmelo Monaco, Marcello de Michele, Fabrizio Antonioli. First comparison of subsidence/uplift rates between Copernicus European Ground Motion Service data and long-term MIS 5.5 geological record in Mediterranean regions. Earth-Science Reviews, 2025, 265, pp.105132. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105132. hal-05057485

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Submitted on 6 May 2025

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<table><tr><td>3.4.</td><td>Basilicata-Calabria: multitemporal inconsistencies</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>3.5.</td><td>Sicily</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>3.6.</td><td>Volcanic activity</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>4.</td><td>Discussion</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>4.1.</td><td>Significance of short- vs long-term ground motion crossed-analysis</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>4.2.</td><td>Comparison with other Mediterranean regions and general considerations</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>5.</td><td>Conclusions</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Declaration of competing interest</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Acknowledgments</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Supplementary data</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Data availability</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>References</td><td>17</td></tr></table>

# 1. Introduction

A comprehensive understanding of ground motion across different timeframes is essential for accurately assessing coastal inundation risks, evaluating seismic and volcanic hazards, and interpreting geological processes (Hooper et al., 2004; Tralli et al., 2005; Del Soldato et al., 2018). The recent release of space geodetic data from the Sentinel-1 satellites has enabled more accurate estimates of present-day ground motion (e.g., Aslan et al., 2018; Intrieri et al., 2018). At European level, this information is provided by the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/; Ortho (Level 3) product, vertical component) and spans the period 2015–2022 (Costantini et al., 2021, 2022).

The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) dataset comprises two geospatial layers: the vertical component of ground deformation and the east-west component of displacement. Both are linked to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), resampled at a resolution of 100 m and anchored to the geocentric reference frame model. EGMS Ortho (Level 3) is tied to the geodetic reference frame of the European Terrestrial Reference Frame, realization 2000 (ETRF2000; Costantini et al., 2022). As illustrated in Fig. 1 for the Mediterranean region, the GNSS vertical velocities exhibit a different distribution of values in comparison to the EGMS data, which are widespread across the territory of the European Union, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom (Fig. 1a).

Both the EGMS and GNSS data represent short-term estimates when compared to the geologically derived uplift/subsidence rates, which span a few years and hundreds of thousands of years, respectively. In Mediterranean coastal areas, long-term geological estimates of vertical movement velocities can be derived from geomorphological, stratigraphic and geoarchaeological evidence (e.g., Ferranti et al., 2006, 2010; Galili et al., 2016; Pallikarakis et al., 2018; Tsakalos et al., 2018; Wulf et al., 2018; Ott et al., 2019; Erginal et al., 2022; Karymbalis et al., 2022; Marino et al., 2022), as well as sedimentological data (e.g., del Valle et al., 2024). By comparing these with the short-term satellite data (e.g., see the contrasting values in Fig. 1c and d in Calabria for example), discrepancies in uplift/subsidence trends can be identified, indicating the potential for human activities to interfere with natural geological processes, such as glacio-eustatic and tectonic processes, which contribute to modulate the evolution of coastlines. A joint analysis of both short-term (averaged over four to six years of EGMS observation) and long-term estimates of vertical movements may yield insights into ongoing geological processes (Henriquet et al., 2022). In industrialized areas, anthropogenic factors, such as seasonal water pumping for agricultural purposes, appear significant (e.g., Solari et al., 2016; Delgado Blasco et al., 2019). Nevertheless, it remains challenging to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic processes.

To the best of our knowledge, this paper represents the first systematic endeavor to compare ground motion data from assorted datasets (e.g., EGMS, GNSS, long-term geomorphologic and stratigraphic datum), following a few recent local studies (e.g., Ganas et al., 2021; Foumelis et al., 2022; Dessi and Melis, 2023; Ghaderpour et al., 2024).

The present review develops a methodology that characterize key Mediterranean coastal areas that have been influenced by both natural and anthropogenic processes. The diverse geodynamic settings of the Italian and Greek regions, the coastal areas provide a range of case studies, including “virtually stable regions”, coastal plains in the backarc of the Apennine orogen, foreland basins, and seismically and volcanically active regions. The objective is to attribute significance to the vertical velocity changes provided by EGMS, while also discussing the underlying processes, whether natural (subsidence/uplift, volcanic movements) or anthropogenic.

To address the question of how these processes operate across different time scales, a local multi-temporal analysis of ground motion was performed (see Section 2), allowing us for the distinction of signals from tectonics, volcanic inflation/deflation, gravitational collapses, or sediment compaction (Drouin and Sigmundsson, 2019). This information is of critical relevance for the geological risk assessment (Barreca et al., 2021; Crosetto et al., 2022), particularly in regions that have been significantly impacted by significant anthropogenic pressure (Cappucci et al., 2024).

In this review paper, we present a novel methodological approach that employs Sentinel-1 data from EGMS Ortho (Level 3) to assess short-term vertical variations in coastal regions. The present study focuses on regions exhibiting contrasting short- and long-term uplift/subsidence values, with a comparison of EGMS and GNSS data with the long-term geological record. Our long-term reference marker is the Late Pleistocene (approximately 118 ka) Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS 5.5), as discussed in section 2.1.

The proposed approach may offer valuable insights into the actively deforming crustal segments of different geodynamic domains and establish a framework for applying EGMS data in coastal studies. This aligns with broader goals of enhancing our understanding about the present and future “state-of-health” of the European-Mediterranean coasts, considering the combined impact of vertical movement and the flooding scenarios predicted according to climate change (e.g., Melet et al., 2020; Antonioli et al., 2020).

# 2. Methodology

This section outlines the methodology adopted for the retrieval and comparison of long- and short-term vertical components of ground movements from a range of disciplinary perspectives. To provide a representative sample of Italian and Greek different geodynamic settings, some key areas have been selected, including quasi-stable regions (Sardinia and southern Lazio), strongly subsiding areas of the Venetian and Romagna plains, and seismically active regions (Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) (Fig. 1d). For each of these regions, published estimates of MIS 5.5 sea level elevations were subjected to a graphical comparison of maps and graphs with EGMS Ortho (Level 3) Sentinel-1 and GNSS data. A part of the manuscript is dedicated to the analysis of the area that may host the Strait of Messina Bridge, a proposed 3.3 km long suspension bridge to connect Sicily to the Italian mainland https://strettodimessina.
it/web/. The project involves the construction of foundations and anchors that may fall in areas of tectonic instability that are still the subject of scientific and design debate.

## 2.1. Review of available MIS 5.5 sea level data

The analysis of form ad deposit records offers insights into past environmental conditions and processes. This is particularly evident in the Upper Pleistocene MIS 5.5 record, which has been here used to identify the last interglacial period, spanning from 132 to 116 ka. This period is distinguished by high-resolution deep-sea oxygen isotope stratigraphy (Stirling et al., 1998; Shackleton et al., 2003; Kopp et al., 2013; Murray-Wallace and Woodroffe, 2014) (Fig. 2a), and it is also marked by widespread tephra layers (Fernandez et al., 2025). The study entails the compilation and analysis of sedimentary and erosive coastal features, including paleo-beach deposits (e.g. Fig. 2b) and tidal notches

(Fig. 2c-d), respectively (Ferranti et al., 2006; Lambeck et al., 2011; Cerrone et al., 2021; Rovere et al., 2023; Antonioli et al., 2018, 2023). Furthermore, it encompasses lagoonal and back-barrier facies, as determined by on the micropaleontological content and mollusk associations, such *Cerastoderma glaucum*, *Loripes* sp., *Hydrobia* sp., *Bittium* sp., *Abra* sp., and *Cerithium* sp., identified in situ or from borehole cores (Fig. 2e-f).

The present-day elevation of MIS 5.5 fossil tidal notches in Mediterranean regions indicates that the sea level was between 2 and 11 m higher than it is today. Numerous studies across the Mediterranean has confirmed the presence of MIS 5.5 form and deposits (e.g., Negri et al., 2015; Benjamin et al., 2017). These studies attributed variations in sea level marker elevations to regional tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustments (Stocchi et al., 2018). MIS 5.5 deposits have been identified at depths exceeding several tens of meters, as observed in the northern Adriatic foreland plains (Fig. 2f). Also, they have been found as

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.** a) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vertical velocity of the Euro-Mediterranean region (Serpelloni et al., 2013). b) European Ground Motion Service view (EGMS Ortho (Level 3)) over the European Union territory, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom, with black dots indicating the measured MIS 5.5 markers, whose information is available from the literature. The space geodetic data from the Sentinel-1 satellite, released by the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS), have been subjected to analysis within the temporal range of 2016–2020. The data presented on the digital platform (https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/) indicate that the Mediterranean region is stable or exhibiting slight subsidence, while Fennoscandia appear to be undergoing uplift, with rates of up to 7–10 mm/yr. This phenomenon is an effect of long-term glacial isostatic rebound. c) INSAR detail over the Italian coasts with locations of the areas studied in this paper. d) Generalized velocity distribution related to the MIS 5.5 marker along the coasts of Italy (Antonioli et al., 2023).</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.** Geological and paleoclimatic evidence from the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5.5.</figcaption></figure>

a) Oxygen isotope curve (δ¹⁸O) established from the Mediterranean splice (Konijnendijk et al., 2015), illustrating climate fluctuations from the Middle to Upper Pleistocene. The MIS 5.5 sea level highstand (~118 ka) is compared to the Mediterranean benthic isotope record (light blue dots and line) and the LR04 benthic stack (gray) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). b) Shell-rich fossil beach deposits from Circeo (Lazio). c) *Lithophaga* boreholes in carbonate (Ariana beach north, Gaeta, Lazio). d) Tidal notch with visible fault at Punta Giglio (red dashed line). e) Marine fossils found in situ within MIS 5.5 strata in a channel of the Pontina plain: 1* *Cerastoderma glaucum*, 2* *Loripes* sp., 3* *Hydrobia* sp. f) Sediment cores from Torre di Mosto (northeast of Treviso, see section 3.3; from Cerrone et al., 2021), showing MIS 5.5 coastal and inner shelf facies, including beach and alluvial deposits; g) uplifted terraced MIS 5.5 surface in northern Sicily bounded by a fault scarp; h) example of a terraced sandy conglomerate facies. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
terraced surfaces with associated deposits currently uplifted to approximately 120 m, as evidenced by the Sicilian-Calabrian reliefs (Fig. 2g,h).

Based on field observations by Ferranti et al. (2006, 2010) and other Authors, an updated list of MIS 5.5 highstand markers has been compiled (Table S1). This list includes several types of markers, such as depositional and erosional/chemical indicators of the eustatic sea level, along with other biological indicators of the sea level position (cf. Fig. 2).

To calculate the uplift/subsidence rate of the MIS 5.5 highstand

deposits or forms, we employed the method described by Antonioli et al. (2018), which accounts for tectonic and Glacial and hydro Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). In accordance with the existing literature on the elevation or depth of the MIS 5.5 highstand features, we have divided them by the maximum highstand of MIS 5.5, which occurred 118 ka BP (Fig. 2a).

The GIA correction values employed in this study are derived from the findings of Antonioli et al. (2018). They are presented as follows: 8.5 m for Western Sardinia, 8.25 m for Eastern Sardinia, 8 m for the

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**Fig. 3.** Methodological approach. Tavolara Island in northeast Sardinia has been selected as a case study to illustrate our workflow, which comprises the following steps: a) identification of the MIS 5.5 markers reported in Table 1 on the EGMS map. It should be noted that the original color scale has been corrected by adding +1 mm/yr. b) verification of the geological background of the MIS 5.5 areas by consulting local geological maps (e.g., https://www.sardegnageoportale.it) and c) conducting field measurements and checks. The individual EGMS data points provide a time series comprising a sparse cloud of data, which illustrates how vertical displacement is recorded over time. However, d) when the data is acquired over an area of approximately 400 × 400 m, it provides an average estimate of vertical velocity, which typically results in a time series with a more defined movement pattern with higher clustering and a lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). e) The close-up view from the Pontina Plain along the longitude shows higher values of subsidence near the fault bounding the Pontina Graben to the east. (f-g) Time series for the Pontina Plain and the Volsci Range with mean vertical velocity close to 0 mm/yr. RMSE values range from 1 to 1.5 mm/yr, indicating that the area is below the resolution threshold of the EGMS data.

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central Tyrrhenian coast from Rome (Lazio) to Basilicata, 8.3 m for Calabria and Sicily, and 8.4 m specifically for Eastern Sicily. Additionally, the values for the central and northern Tyrrhenian regions from Rome to Tuscany are 7.75 m, while the values for Liguria, Apulia, and Abruzzo are 7.5 m, and those for the northern Adriatic Sea from Venice to Trieste are 7 m. As an example, to calculate the vertical movement of a fossil tidal notch at an altitude of 3.7 m (dated using speleothems or *Cladocora coespitosa*) found in Western Sardinia, was calculated using the following formula: $$ = ((3.7-8.5) / 118) = -0.04 \text{ mm per year.} $$ Further details regarding paleo sea levels and the methodologies employed to measure them, including discussions on the geochronology of MIS 5.5, can be found in the work of Antonioli et al. (2020).

## 2.2. EGMS data collection

The EGMS offers pan-European, free access to time series of ground displacement at a high spatial and temporal resolution. The EGMS is founded upon the principles of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar analysis (InSAR), as exemplified by the work of Massonnet et al. (1993). This approach exploits the phase difference of the radar echoes acquired by Sentinel-1 at each acquisition date, starting from 2014. Sentinel-1 (A and B) used to acquire data every 6 days from 2014 to 2021, shortened to 12 days today due to Sentinel 1B failure in December 2021. Sentinel 1B has been replaced by Sentinel 1C in December 2024 (ESA, https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-1/Sentinel-1CCaptures_first_radar_images). We used Ortho (Level 3) EGMS products. Ortho (Level 3) products combine ascending and descending Sentinel-1 data to restitute both vertical and horizontal (East-West) components of ground motion. Although advanced InSAR methods exist to retrieve the North-South component of ground displacement (e.g., Bechor and Zebker, 2006), it is not possible to retrieve it, with high precision using conventional InSAR methods. This is the primary reason why EGMS does not provide a North-South component of ground motion. The Ortho (Level 3) product is provided in the form of a grid with a 100 × 100-meter spacing. A Ortho (Level 3) measure exists in this grid if, and only if, a radar scatterer on the ground is observed by both the ascending and the descending Sentinel-1 orbits. The original spatial resolution of the Sentinel-1 data is approximately 20 m. Consequently, if multiple radar scatterers are present in a Ortho (Level 3) grid cell, they will be averaged during processing. Conversely, if only descending or ascending scatterers are present in a Ortho (Level 3) grid cell, no Ortho (Level 3) measure will be generated in that specific grid cell. It is noteworthy that Thiéblemont et al. (2024) have identified a latitude dependent bias of approximately -1 mm/yr between the geodetic reference frame of the European Terrestrial Reference Frame, realization 2000 (ETRF2000) — to which EGMS is tied up — and the GNSS solutions, which express their vertical velocity field with respect to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2014 (ITRF2014). In this study, we take into account this bias.

GNSS data from thirty-six selected stations, located closest to our MIS 5.5 sites, were compared with local EGMS measurements to assess ground motion (see section 2.3). The stations were chosen from the dataset of Devoti et al. (2017), kindly provided by Giulio Selvaggi (INGV). Most of the data from these stations refers to the time period 2005–2015.

## 2.3. EGMS data analysis

To illustrate our methodology for processing EGMS data, we have chosen Tavolara Island, located offshore in the northeast of Sardinia (Fig. 3), as an example. The workflow involves three main stages: a) identification of MIS 5.5 markers on the EGMS map, b) verification of the geological context of the MIS 5.5 sites through consultation of local geological maps (e.g., https://www.sardegnageoportale.it), and c) conduct field checks. At each MIS 5.5 locality (Fig. 3a), we evaluated both the availability of EGMS data and the quality of the geological

background (Fig. 3b). This enabled us to determine whether the measurements had been taken on rocks, sediments, loose material, or anthropogenic deposits. Additionally, field evidence also allowed us to establish a relative chronology. For example, the presence of a tidal notch carved into fallen blocks allows us to date the debris flow to a period preceding MIS 5.5 (Fig. 3c).

The accuracy of the EGMS service is 1 mm/year (EGMS User manual; https://land.copernicus.eu/). Therefore, the EGMS data are not reliable for average velocities below 1 mm/year. Additionally, there is the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) which represents the error (the noise) associated with each velocity measured on one or multiple EGMS points.

The individual EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data points can provide a sparse cloud of data, reflecting the manner in which vertical displacement is recorded over time. As illustrated in Fig. 3d, when the data is acquired over an area of approximately 400 × 400 m (Fig. 3e), it provides an average estimate of mean vertical velocity, offering a more defined movement pattern that is typically characterized by higher clustering and a lower root-mean-square error (RMSE) (Fig. 3f). Ortho (Level 3) products are provided in the form of time series or surface displacement data. By applying linear regression on these time series, an average velocity is generated for each grid cell. Accordingly, the mean velocity is intended to be representative of both time and space. The objective of this procedure is to reduce noise in the velocity measurements and enhance the geological representativeness of the area in question. The aforementioned measurement is collected from the Ortho (Level 3) EGMS vertical product and then compared with long-term geological vertical motion data. This allows for more precise interpretations, as evidenced by the comparison of punctual measurements in the debris, which resulted in a more dispersed graph with RMSE (Fig. 3e-f). The RMSE value was found to be twice as high as the measurements averaged from rocky outcrops (typically 16 velocity measurements were averaged per site). A total of 121 areal measurements were collected (see Table S1). These include both EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data that have been corrected in accordance with the methodology proposed by Thiéblemont et al. (2024), with an average adjustment of +1 mm/yr, and EGMS Ortho (L3) data that have not undergone any corrections. Accordingly, EGMS maps display a color scale bar that has been corrected. All of our graphs illustrate both the corrected and non-corrected Ortho (Level 3) data. In all graphs, the error bars are associated with the corrected data. The objective of this process is to elucidate spatial and temporal correlations, emphasizing differences and similarities between the long-term geological signal across MIS 5.5 and the present-day, short-term InSAR signal.

# 3. Results

## 3.1. Sardinia

As illustrated in Fig. 4, the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) vertical displacement map of Sardinia reveals a homogeneous distribution across the main tectonic structures (black lines) of the northern part of the island, confirming, at least for the vertical component alone, the present-day “virtually stable” conditions. This conclusion has been recently confirmed by an EGMS analysis conducted by Dessi and Melis (2023) in the Einstein Telescope candidate area, located north of Orosei (Fig. 4a). Their findings indicate that the area exhibits stable behavior or irrelevant deformation rates. Notwithstanding the aforementioned short-term evidence, fossil tidal notches representing the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 5.5, 118 ka) have been measured at elevations between 2 and 11 m in various carbonate locations, indicating Late Pleistocene to Holocene tectonic or gravitational movements. One of the most illustrative examples of this variability can be observed in the Gulf of Orosei (Fig. 4b), where tidal notches are found at elevations from 7.4 to 11 m (Antonioli et al., 2018). The EGMS Sentinel-1 time series from this locality demonstrate seasonal fluctuations with amplitudes of approximately 4 mm, indicating a slight overall subsidence of less than 1 mm/yr.
<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 4. Northern Sardinia. a) EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map (https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/) with fault traces (black lines, modified from Carmignani et al., 2016) and black dots indicating the measured MIS 5.5 markers. The circular inset provides a detailed view of the Alghero coast. The Einstein Telescope area lies northwest of the Gulf of Orosei.</figcaption></figure>

b) MIS 5.5 (118 ka) fossil tidal notch in the Gulf of Orosei, found at altitudes between 7 and 11 m. c-d) display the post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities for the Alghero and Olbia coasts, respectively, plotted against the longitude of the sampling localities. The different velocities may be correlated with the activity of N-S and NE-SW trending faults.

e-f) The graphs compare previous data with EGMS Sentinel-1 data (plotted as non-corrected and corrected rates; see section 3) and the velocities obtained from a selected few GNSS stations.

The graphs in Fig. 4c and d illustrate the post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities along the Alghero and Olbia coasts, respectively in the west and in the east of the island. The graphs plot long-term post MIS 5.5 subsidence rates against the longitude of fifty-two areal sampling points. Intensive sampling along the coast between Capo Caccia and Alghero

(Fig. 4a) reveals fault-related offsets on the order of approximately 0.01 to 0.02 mm/yr, which align with the velocity trend (Fig. 4c). These offsets may correspond to recent activity of minor N-S faults edging the island. The fault activity of one of these N-S faults in the S25 locality (Cala Viola Fig. 4a; Table S1) has been dated at least 220 ka by Casini
et al. (2020). However, south of Alghero, the error bars do not allow for the detection of any clear pattern.

In the Olbia coastal area (Fig. 4d), a striking velocity gap is observed offshore between Tavolara Island and Capo Figari. This gap coincides with a NE-SW oriented lineament, the Olbia Fault, which have experienced tectonic movements during Oligocene-Miocene tectonic phases (Carmignani et al., 1992; Casini et al., 2015). Moreover, the graphs in Fig. 4e and f present a comparison between previous geological data and EGMS-derived Sentinel-1 data and GNSS data from three stations, displaying both non-corrected and corrected data (see Section 2.3). These data range from –1 to –2 mm/yr, which is three orders of magnitude higher than the rates of uplift and subsidence measured for the post-MIS 5.5 velocities. Additionally, the high error bars observed for both the Alghero and Olbia coasts indicate that variations in vertical movement along the coastlines of Sardinia are below the resolution of EGMS Copernicus and GNSS measurements.

## 3.2. Lazio

The southern coast of the Lazio has historically been regarded as tectonically quiescent. However, evidence of earthquakes between 2011 and 2012 revealed significant seismic activity, with magnitudes up to Mw 3.8 (cf. http://terremoti.ingv.it/search). These events occurred along oblique normal faults with a WNW and a NNE-striking trend, measuring 7–10 km in length, at the boundary between the Pontina Plain and the Volsci Range (Fig. 5). In this same area, twenty-four areal observations from EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data, representative of the period between 2018 and 2021, show that, in contrast to the generally homogeneous EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data observed across the coastline (Fig. 5a), the Pontina Graben exhibits a negative EGMS Ortho (Level 3) anomaly. The area in question underwent land reclamation in the first half of the 20th century (Serva and Brunamonte, 2007). In this context, the Ausoni Mounts near Terracina form a horst (point L18; Fig. 5a-b), which has been considered stable since the Late Pleistocene (Antonioli et al., 1999). As noted in Table S1, MIS 5.5 deposits and forms occur at varying depths ranging from –15.5 m (L11 locality in the subsiding plain) to +8.2 m (L18 locality on the carbonates of Terracina, Fig. 5b). Shell-rich fossil beach deposits were identified in proximity to the coastline, whereas lagoonal facies were predominantly found in the Pontina Plain (Fig. 5a).

The graph in Fig. 5b shows post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities along the southern Lazio coast, which range from 0.04 mm/yr to –0.25 mm/yr. The grabens of the Pontina and Fondi plains exhibit the most negative values. Fig. 5c provides a detailed view of the Pontina Plain, demonstrating a trend of decreasing negative velocities as they approach the fault that bounds the Pontina Plain to the northeast.

Graphs in Fig. 5d and e present a comparative analysis of five GNSS stations with the areal EGMS Sentinel-1 Ortho (Level 3) rates, with both non-corrected and corrected data displayed, including error bars. The error bars in Fig. 5d indicate that the magnitude of vertical movement is significantly higher than the measurement accuracy. The estimated post-MIS 5.5 subsidence rate is approximately –0.2 mm/yr, whereas the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) velocity is approximately –10 mm/yr. As will be discussed subsequently, this discrepancy may be attributed to the rapid anthropogenic compaction of soft sediments, which has the potential to outpace slower tectonic processes. Due to the limited coverage of GNSS in this area, a direct comparison with the areas of the Pontina Plain that are subsiding the most cannot be made. The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) time series (Fig. 5f-g) demonstrates the seasonal variability of stable sandy units (areal measurement L8) with respect to the Terracina carbonate (L18), while the most depressed areas (L11) are minimally influenced by seasonal fluctuations.

## 3.3. Veneto and Romagna Adriatic coast: a true subsiding region

The northern Adriatic Italian coast (Fig. 6) is one of the most

subsiding foreland basins in Europe. Its development occurred at the foothill of the southern Alps and northern Apennines (DeCelles and Giles, 1996; Carminati et al., 2003; Amadori et al., 2019; Antoncecchi et al., 2021). The basin contains over 8 km of sedimentary infill near the Po delta, with a gradual thinning towards the northern and southern basin margins, namely Veneto and Romagna (Maesano et al., 2024). Specifically, these regions exhibit significant variations in vertical ground motion, as indicated by EGMS Sentinel-1 Ortho (Level 3) vertical velocities (Fig. 6a). Pronounced negative velocities are present in the Po Delta between Ravenna and Molinella, which indicates a subsidence rate exceeding 5 mm/yr at the footwall of major thrust fronts traces. This occurs where the Quaternary sedimentary succession can exceed 1 km in thickness (Amadori et al., 2019; Aghib et al., 2024) and where tectonically active orogenic frontal structures are buried below approximately 0.5 to 1 km below the surface (Maesano et al., 2024). In the Veneto Plain, the Schio-Vicenza Fault, a buried high-angle fault zone associated with a history of seismic activity (Martin et al., 2020; see references therein), appears to compartmentalize fault-controlled areas experiencing more significant negative EGMS values towards Venice.

A comparison of post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities, derived from in-core analysis (similar to that represented in Fig. 2f), with five EGMS Ortho (Level 3) measurements and four GNSS data points along the Venetian hinterland and coast, represented in the graph of Fig. 6b, demonstrates that these values broadly align. In particular, the post-MIS 5.5 values vary from –0.5 to approximately –1 mm/yr, remaining within the error bars of the corrected Copernicus data (see Section 2.3). However, the EGMS data exhibit a tendency towards significantly lower corrected values, with a range of about –1 to –3 mm/yr. In Venice, the geological post-MIS 5.5 and EGMS data are in closer agreement, indicating subsidence within the error bars of GNSS data.

In contrast, graph Fig. 6c highlights that the post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities in Romagna are less pronounced compared to the faster subsidence values derived from eight EGMS and four GNSS data, suggesting that the rates of subsidence may vary across the regions. The post-MIS 5.5 data broadly indicate velocities of about –0.5 mm/yr, while the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data range between –2 and –5 mm/yr. The GNSS data show a linear trend of increasing subsidence towards the south, with values ranging from –4 mm/yr at Porto Garibaldi to –8 mm/yr in Ravenna (Fig. 6c). In Ravenna, both the non-corrected and the corrected EGMS data for the time period between 2018 and 2021 exceed the subsidence rate observed in the post-MIS 5.5 period. Furthermore, these values are themselves surpassed by the GNSS measurements, which had a broader record (cf. Antoncecchi et al., 2021). As later discussed in Section 4, the discrepancy between the long-term and short-term signals may indicate of the effects of anthropogenic-induced compaction and its variations through time, given that these measurements were conducted in an area with a high level of industrialization.

## 3.4. Basilicata-Calabria: multitemporal inconsistencies

The southern extremity of the Italian peninsula (Fig. 7) exemplifies a region characterized by seismic and tectonic activity. The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data distribution shows that the region is also impacted by remarkable subsidence in the sedimentary basins of the Crati Valley and Sibari area in the north and the Gioia Tauro Plain in the south, with additional smaller areas near Crotone (Fig. 7a). The position of the MIS 5.5 markers (Ferranti et al., 2006) depict a large-scale topographic bulge (Fig. 7b), significantly affecting Calabria and northeastern Sicily (see next section), which progressively vanishes towards Basilicata and Apulia regions to the north, and western and southeastern Sicily to the south (Westaway, 1993; Faccenna et al., 2011; Meschis et al., 2020). This regional uplift is suggested to originate from subcrustal mantle flow related to the subduction of the Ionian slab underneath the southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Westaway, 1993; Gvirtzman and Nur, 1999; Faccenna et al., 2011; Ciarcia and Vitale, 2025). As a consequence, it reaches a maximum rate above the Ionian subduction zone in southern and central
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**Fig. 5.** Southern coast of Lazio Region. a) EGMS Ortho (Level 3) Copernicus vertical velocity map with: black dashed lines (faults; modified from Cardello et al., 2021), black dots indicating the measured MIS 5.5 markers observed at various depths; historical and instrumentally recorded earthquakes; sinkholes (light blue dots). Graph b) shows the post-MIS 5.5 average vertical rates along the coast, with graph c) detailing decreasing velocities near the fault bounding the Pontina Plain. Graphs d-e) compare GNSS-derived Copernicus data and GPS station measurements, with error bars reflecting vertical movement magnitudes. Graph f) depicts a time series of the change in subsidence rate, when compared at key stable localities with a locality in the Pontina Graben (graph in g), with differential subsidence reaching up to –10 mm/yr. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Calabria with uplift rates >1 mm/yr, where the Ionian slab is detached (Roberts et al., 2013; Barreca et al., 2016; Scarfi et al., 2018). A comparison of post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities with seventeen EGMS Ortho (Level 3) areal measurements and eleven GNSS data across the region is shown in Fig. 7b. The post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities along the Calabria coastline exhibit values locally decreasing to 0 mm/yr, depending on the marker position. These variations are associated with the activity of Quaternary normal faults in the hanging walls, for which slower velocities have been measured (Fig. 7a).

The graph in Fig. 7c illustrates that post-MIS 5.5 data fall within most of the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) error bars, although satellite-derived geodetic values are locally consistently lower than the geological data. These multitemporal inconsistencies are probably related to short-term interseismic subsidence within the seismic cycle of major active faults in a generalized context of regional uplifting (Westaway, 1993, see

Discussion).

### 3.5. Sicily

The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map of Sicily (Fig. 8a) illustrates that relatively stable areas are present in the northwestern sector of the island, whereas the central and northeastern sectors are generally experiencing modest uplift. The region is marked by anomalies related to either volcanic activity of Mount Etna (Branca et al., 2014 and references therein) and Aeolian Islands (Mattia et al., 2008; Barreca et al., 2014a), or to fault activity (e.g., Campobello di Mazara, Tindari, Messina Strait; Ragusa; see Barreca et al., 2014b, 2021; Cultrera et al., 2015, 2017). The Siracusa area and Ustica Island are characterized by discrepancy between the geodetic subsidence and the long-term moderate uplift. A relatively good agreement is observed between coastal

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

**Fig. 6.** North Adriatic Italian coast of Veneto and Romagna. The area show the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) Copernicus vertical velocities, exhibiting pronounced negative anomalies in the Po Delta at the footwall of the Apennine orogenic front, and between Ravenna and Molinella. The location of buried faults from Maesano et al. (2024, in Romagna) and from Martin et al. (2020, in Veneto) is also indicated. The squares represent historical earthquakes (Mw > 4; from Rovida et al., 2020). Graph b) compares post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities along the Venetian hinterland and coast with GNSS and EGMS data, with values broadly within the error bars of the EGMS Copernicus corrected data (+1 mm/yr). Graph c) demonstrates that post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities in Romagna are notably less pronounced than the faster subsiding EGMS and GNSS-derived values.
<figure><img src="image_16.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 7. a) EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map of the southern Basilicata-Calabria regions showing tectonic activity and subsidence in sedimentary basins. The map also shows the location of faults (black lines) and historical recorded earthquakes (M<sub>W</sub> > 5 Rovida et al., 2020). The mean vertical velocity following the MIS 5.5 highstand (b) span a range of 0 to 1.4 mm/yr, with the slower values associated with E-W striking grabens. c) Graphs indicate that the majority of post-MIS 5.5 data fall within the EGMS error bars, although the satellite-derived geodetic values exhibit a consistently lower magnitude than the geological estimates.</figcaption></figure>

estimates and PS vertical mean velocities in northeastern Sicily.

A comparison of post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities with fifteen EGMS Ortho (Level 3) areal measurements and nine GNSS data across the island is shown in Fig. 7b and c. The post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities across Sicily generally exhibit positive values, with a range of 0 to about 1.4 mm/yr, either towards the north (Fig. 8b) or the east (Fig. 8c). Notably, the values near Catania are significantly higher (1.2–1.4 mm/yr, due to interplay between volcanic inflation, faulting and active folding; Ristuccia et al., 2013; Branca et al., 2014; De Guidi et al., 2015; Barreca et al., 2018) compared to the general trend of Sicily, which ranges from 0 to 1 mm/yr (Ferranti et al., 2006). Graphs in Fig. 8d and e illustrate that post-MIS 5.5 data, except for the Catania area, fall within most of the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) error bars, although satellite-derived geodetic values are consistently lower than the geological data. In general, compared to Quaternary coastal uplift rates, these results confirm the relative stability of western Sicily and slow uplift of north-eastern and south-central Sicily.

In southeastern Sicily, it is worth noting that according to Viger et al. (2024), PS-InSAR measurements (derived from Sentinel-1 radar satellite and acquired during the 2015–2020 period) evidence a generalized subsidence of the southeastern coast of Sicily and an eastward tilting of the whole Ragusa-Siracusa sector, probably related to large-scale geological processes and/or human activities (see also Anzidei et al., 2021; Henriquet et al., 2022).

The Messina Strait (Fig. 9a-b), which experienced one of the most significant earthquakes of the last century—the 1908 Messina earthquake (M<sub>L</sub> 7.1) (Fig. 9a)—is the site of the planned Messina Bridge.

The area is affected by positive EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data (Fig. 9b) along both coastal sides, which contrasts with GNSS measurements on the Sicilian side (−1.4 mm/yr). The area of the strait hosts marine terraces with elevations ranging from 40 to 1200 m above sea level, and ages varying from 60 to 730 ka, as documented by Antoncecchi et al. (2021) (Fig. 2g, h). The MIS 5.5 terrace on the Calabrian side of the planned bridge is located at the footwall of the Scilla Fault at Piale (Fig. 9b and c), where one of the most evident morphostructural neotectonic evidence of the area occurs. Conversely, short-term EGMS Ortho (Level 3) evidence, show a different pattern. As illustrated in Fig. 9d and e, the time series indicate that the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) rates in the Messina Strait coasts capture positive average vertical ground movements of approximately 0.6–0.7 mm/yr for both the northern abutment of the planned bridge in Sicily (Fig. 9d) and the southern abutment in Calabria (Fig. 9d). However, both abutment areas show sinuous trends that are influenced by seasonal fluctuations. Notably, these EGMS Ortho (Level 3) rates differ from the post-MIS 5.5 uplift, which is +1.2 mm/yr on the Calabrian side and 0.8 mm/yr on the Sicilian side.

Further south, the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) rates across the W-Fault, which was activated during the Messina earthquake (Barreca et al., 2021), indicate a 0.7 mm/yr geodetic displacement across the fault. The graphs display time series from both a restricted measurement area (colored dots) and a larger area (black dots), corresponding to the footwall (Fig. 9f) and hanging wall (Fig. 9g), respectively. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) values for these measurements range from 1 to 1.5 mm/yr. The hanging wall displays convex-up trends with a peak between 2018 and 2019 and a trough in 2022, (Fig. 9g), with amplitudes
<figure><img src="image_17.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 8.** a) EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map of the Sicilian region (including Malta), indicating stable areas around Palermo and Siracusa, with moderate uplift in the central and northwestern sectors of the main island with the location of faults (black lines) and historically recorded earthquakes (M<sub>w</sub> > 5 Rovida et al., 2020). Anomalies are linked to volcanic activity (Mount Etna, Aeolian Islands) and fault activity (e.g., Campobello di Mazara). B) Post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities range from 0 to 1.4 mm/yr, with higher values near Catania. C) Graphs illustrate that the majority of post-MIS 5.5 data fall within the EGMS error bars, though satellite-derived geodetic values are consistently lower than geological estimates, with the exception of the Catania surroundings.</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 9.** A detailed comparison study on the Messina Strait. A) Fault map of the 1908 Messina earthquake (M_l 7.1; from Barreca et al., 2021). B) View of the western morphostructural segment of the Scilla Fault, bordering the bridge abutment in Calabria, with the fault trace (dashed line) and terrace levels (orange dotted lines) on the structural high highlighted. C) Comparison of EGMS-derived positive vertical ground movement rates (~0.6–0.7 mm/yr) with GNSS measurements on the Sicilian side of the planned bridge (–1.4 mm/yr). (d-e) Time series showing average vertical movement at the northern bridge abutment in Sicily (SNA) and the southern abutment in Calabria of Piale (CSA), revealing seasonal fluctuations. The corrected rates derived from EGMS Sentinel-1 Ortho (Level 3) exhibit contrast with the post-MIS 5.5 uplift rates, which are estimated at +1.2 mm/yr on the Calabrian side, and 0.8 mm/yr on the Sicilian side. (f-g) Time series for the footwall and hanging wall regions across the W-Fault, demonstrate a 0.7 mm/yr offset across the fault. RMSE values range from 1 to 1.5 mm/yr, indicating that the area is below the resolution threshold of the EGMS data. Note the convex-up trends in the hanging wall with a peak between 2018 and 2019 and a trough in 2022.</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 10.** Examination of short-time EGMS deformation in the volcanic areas. a) The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map indicates subsidence in the resurgent caldera of Ischia Island, particularly around Mt. Epomeo. Conversely, the Campi Flegrei caldera, with its caldera rims reported by Isaia et al. (2019), Natale et al. (2022), and Natale et al. (2024), is experiencing dramatic uplift. This is highlighted by the time series. b) The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map of Mt. Etna shows volcanic deflation and uplift influenced by fault structures from Acocella and Neri (2003), with coastal uplift in Aci Castello interrupted by subsidence due to flank sliding and faulting. c) Santorini and Nisyros volcanic islands display subsidence in their calderas, with Santorini Island, instead, experiencing approximately 4 mm of uplift. The caldera rims and faults for Santorini are from Vespa et al. (2006), while those for Nisyros are from Tibaldi et al. (2008) and Nomikou and Papanikolaou (2011).</figcaption></figure>
around 4 mm. Due to the aforementioned RMSE, interpreting this area
falls below the resolution threshold of the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data.
Nevertheless, a notable contrast in velocity, indicative of linear fault
activity, is observed.

3.6. Volcanic activity

In Mediterranean active volcanic landscapes (Fig. 10), which are younger than any MIS 5.5 marker, the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) observations alone allow to trace the alternation of volcanic inflation and deflation phases (e.g., Foumelis et al., 2022), that are usually larger than 1 mm/yr. To furnish examples of this observation, we present an overview over some of the most relevant Italian and Greek volcanoes. Fig. 10a illustrates the bradyseism effect within the resurgent dome of the Campi Flegrei volcano near Naples, which has been recently investigated by Bonano et al. (2024). In this region, the subsidence affecting both the Vesuvius cone and the summit of Ischia Island is also evident (Fig. 10a). The distinctive bell-shaped uplift pattern (e.g., Vitale and Natale, 2023), particularly notable at the actively resurgent dome of Pozzuoli (~109 mm/yr) in the case of the Campi Flegrei, serves to underscore the very active dynamics of the volcanic system (Natale et al., 2024 and references therein). A closer examination of the present-day deformation path in the volcanic areas west of Naples also reveals opposite trends. Notably, the inactive resurgent caldera at Ischia Island is experiencing general subsidence with a rate of -9 mm/yr, which can be attributed to gravitational collapse (Marotta et al., 2024). In some localized areas, this rate can reach -13 mm/yr (cf. De Martino et al., 2021).

The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) map of Mt. Etna volcano (Fig. 10b) elucidates the dynamic interplay between tectonic structures and volcanic inflation/deflation phases. The summit sectors highlight a deflation phase within the context of a long-term (MIS 5.5; cf. Fig. 8) and short-term (Holocene) volcano-tectonic uplifting process, as evidenced by raised morphological and biological markers of paleo-shorelines along the coastal sector of the volcano (see Branca et al., 2014 and reference therein). Along the coast, this large-scale process of uplifting, strongly active in the Aci Castello area (diagram in Fig. 9b), as shown in the time series (Fig. 10b). However, it is locally interrupted by subsidence related to flank sliding (Bonforte et al., 2011; Mattia et al., 2015), and by acceleration along the hinge of active anticlines at the front of the thrust system and along the footwall of active faults (Figs. 8a, 10b). In particular, the maps illustrate the significant influence played by the master normal and oblique faults in controlling the lower eastern flank dynamics of the volcano (De Guidi et al., 2015; Barreca et al., 2018; Monaco et al., 2021).

The Greek islands of Santorini and Nisyros also display patterns of subsidence affecting the caldera (Fig. 10c), with values ranging from -6.4 to -3.8 mm/yr, respectively. Notably, Thera (Santorini), displays clear evidence of uplift, with an estimated magnitude of approximately 4 mm/yr.

4. Discussion

4.1. Significance of short- vs long-term ground motion crossed-analysis

In the short-term, based on a few years of observations, the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) (https://land.cope.rnicus.eu) Ortho (Level 3) data suggests that most of the investigated areas are stable or experiencing minimal subsidence. It should be noted that exceptions exist in subsiding plains, as outlined in sections 3.2 and 3.3, as well as regions with intense tectonic and volcanic activity, as discussed in sections 3.4–3.5 and 3.6. Conversely, regions such as Fensoscandia, as illustrated in Fig. 1b (blue), exhibit steady uplift, due to long-term glacial isostatic rebound (Thiéblemont et al., 2024). This large-scale regional GIA variation is observable by large-scale InSAR of the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data due to the resampling of EGMS Ortho

(Level 3) data to the GNSS network (see Methods, Sections 2.2). At the
time of the writing of this review, with more than 10 years of data
collected, the EGMS tool allows for comparison with GNSS measure-
ments and the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 -a reliable marker of the Late
Pleistocene (118 ka BP) (e.g; Antonioli et al., 2018, 2023).

As documented in Section 3.1, regions like Sardinia exhibit consis-
tent alignment between EGMS, GNSS and long-term geological data.
This suggests a “virtually stable” environment, despite local variability
in velocity offsets on the order of approximately 0.01 to 0.02 mm/yr.
These estimates are comparable in magnitude to the mean vertical ve-
locities of 0.04 mm/yr identified by Dessi and Melis (2023) in the
northeastern part of the island. In the Orosei Gulf (Fig. 4b), MIS 5.5
marker elevation differences were related to recent volcanic loading or
updating associated with magmatic emplacement (Mariani et al.,
2009).

As illustrated in Fig. 4c and d, the velocity offset observed in the various sectors of the northwestern part of the island can be attributed to local tilting, which is likely caused by the activity of faults less than a 1 km in length or by local gravitational collapses that have occurred over the last 118 kyr (e.g., Fig. 2d; see also Cocco et al., 2019). The root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.6 mm/yr associated with the corresponding EGMS measurements (Figs. 4 and 5) means that variations in vertical movement in the “stable” regions fall below the resolution of both EGMS Ortho (Level 3) and GNSS measurements. As stated in the EGMS user manual (https://land.copernicus.eu/), the accuracy of EGMS Ortho (Level 3) products is reported to be 1 mm/yr. Accordingly, present-day ground displacement below 1 mm/yr cannot be reliably assessed using EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data due to inherent uncertainties (see section 4.2).

In contrast, more consistent localized discrepancies were observed in areas affected by differential subsidence, such as the Pontina Plain, which is located along the coast of the Tyrrhenian passive margin in the Lazio region south of Rome (Fig. 4a). As shown in Fig. 5e, the most rapid subsidence is observed along the hanging wall of the fault bordering the Pontina Plain to the northeast. As reported by Serva and Brunamonte (2007), the highest subsiding area of the Pontina Plain during the 1990s reached subsidence values of 21 mm/year, which is approximately twice the rate observed in our EGMS Ortho (Level 3) estimates (Fig. 5g). This amplified post-MIS 5.5 subsidence trend across the Pontina Plain can be attributed to the faster anthropogenic compaction of soft sediments, a process observed by Hung et al. (2017) in the Taiwan coastal plains. This phenomenon may mask the occurrence of much slower tectonic activity south of Rome.

This region is affected by Quaternary faulting (Cardello et al., 2020), sediment compaction (Serva and Brunamonte, 2007), and potentially overlaps with Middle to Late Pleistocene monogenetic volcanisms (Marra et al., 2021). Evidence of neotectonic activity along a major intermountain NW-striking normal fault (Alessandri et al., 2021) has been documented from the Late Pleistocene until the Middle Bronze Age (3.4 ± 0.2 ka BP). Furthermore, the fault bordering the Pontina Plain is currently the site of hypothermal activity, which interacts at different depths also with Pleistocene magmatic rocks (Gori et al., 2024), which have emplaced as part of the Middle-Late Pleistocene tectonically-controlled Volsci Volcanic Field (Cardello et al., 2020).

In variably water-saturated sand-dominated sedimentary contexts where agricultural activities impact near-surface water nappes, like the Pontina Plain (Fig. 5f), we observe sinuous trends in the acquired curves (e.g., Figs. 4b, 5f), characterized by downward trends during the first half of the year and upward trends during the second half. In general, the subsidence path, observed over a period of observation longer than a year, exhibits a tendency to align with both Copernicus EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data, based on Sentinel-1, and long-term geological observations. However, it is noteworthy that sinuous paths have been recorded in rocky settings (e.g., Figs. 3f, 4b, 10c), which may be attributed to seasonal thermal relaxation of rocks.

The subsiding foreland coastal plains of northern Italy (Fig. 6a),
which are known for their substantial subsidence due to the subduction of the Adriatic plate, demonstrate distinct patterns of subsidence. EGMS Ortho (Level 3) maps effectively highlight the presence of active faults in the area, including the orogenic front of the Apennines in Romagna. In Veneto, post-MIS 5.5 average vertical velocities very broadly align with GNSS and EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data (see also Da Lio et al., 2018), although at the RMSE limit, suggesting a relatively consistent subsidence rate of at least 0.6 mm/yr, which is the average post-MIS 5.5 subsidence rate. This is in line with the long-term subsidence rate estimates of 0.7–1.0 mm/yr proposed by Carminati et al. (2003). In contrast, the data from Romagna exhibits a greater discrepancy between post-MIS 5.5 and EGMS Ortho (Level 3) /GNSS data sets, suggesting that the subsidence rate in recent times has been faster, reaching approximately 8 mm/yr (Fig. 6c) compared to the post-MIS 5.5 subsidence rate of approximately 0.8 mm/yr. The observed inconsistency between the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data and the GNSS data, on the one hand, and the averaged velocities of the post-MIS 5.5 period, on the other hand, serves to highlights the complex interplay of short-term and long-term deformation processes. Overall, the short-term values exhibited by the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) and GNSS data indicate a decreasing subsidence rates in areas distant from the orogen. This finding is also consistent with the observed rise in piezometric levels, which can be attributed to the diminishing of groundwater withdrawal during the 1992–2016 time interval (Antonioli et al., 2020). The subsidence patterns observed in the Lazio coasts (see section 3.2), suggest the influence of factors such as anthropogenic activities within sediments younger than MIS 5.5.

The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data have demonstrated their remarkable capability in detecting differential ground motion phenomena in the subsiding coastal plains of Calabria (Fig. 7) and in uplifting structures of Eastern Sicily (near Catania Figs. 8, 10). Notwithstanding the considerable errors (RMSE 1.75 mm/yr), the alignment between EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data and geological evidence in Basilicata and northern Calabria appears to validate the efficacy of EGMS in detecting variations linked to vertical uplift. In contrast, in regions associated with more intense tectonics, such as southern Calabria and eastern Sicily (Figs. 7, 8, 9; cf. Monaco and Tortorici, 2000), the analysis of both EGMS Ortho (Level 3) and GNSS data consistently indicates a subtle less uplifting or even subsiding trend. This observation is in contrast with the prevailing patterns of uplift documented over both long-term periods, which reach up to 1.4 mm/yr average over the last 118 kyr. These apparent discrepancies may be related to transient deformation associated with the interseismic elastic loading of the large normal faults present in the region. In this regard, some considerations can be non-corrected, especially for the key area of the Messina Strait (Fig. 9), where Ferranti et al. (2007, 2008) have documented that recent uplift of Holocene shorelines along the Calabrian coast of the Messina Strait was partitioned between a regional and a co-seismic component, the latter attributed to displacement along a normal fault that straddles the Scilla coastline (Figs. 7a, 9a-b). A similar phenomenon was documented by Barreca et al. (2021) in correspondence with the fault that was activated during the 1908 major earthquake (Fig. 9a). The late Quaternary activity of this fault has resulted in the differential uplift of the marine terraces along the Reggio Calabria coastline (Fig. 9), which has also been recorded by EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data although with a high RMSE.

A comparison of EGMS Ortho (Level 3) and GNSS data with post-MIS 5.5 rates along the southern Calabria and eastern Sicily coastlines, as detailed by Ferranti et al. (2006, 2010), underscores the complex nature of ground motion dynamics in these seismically active areas (Giuffrida et al., 2025). The interseismic quiescence hypothesis can explain the velocity gap recorded by faster long-term post-MIS 5.5 rates. Although this phenomenon is below EGMS Otho (Level 3) resolution, the current activity of the W-Fault is best confirmed by the E-W component of the motion, which shows E-movement of the hanging wall block and W-movement at the footwall, thus accounting for oblique left-lateral kinematics on the considered fault. This displacement pattern rules out other non-tectonic deformation in the area, such as sediment compaction.

A further intriguing case is also represented by the Siracusa area (Fig. 8), which exhibits a striking divergence from the long-term gentle uplift recorded by coastal data and the large-scale subsidence and eastward tilting pattern recorded by EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data. This behavior is consistent with the interseismic elastic deformation signal that is expected on the footwall of the Malta Escarpment (Bianca et al., 1999; Gambino et al., 2021 and references therein). This major fault system is believed to be the seismogenic source of the major 1693 earthquake that devastated southeastern Sicily (see also Henriquet et al., 2022; Viger et al., 2024).

## 4.2. Comparison with other Mediterranean regions and general considerations

We are aware that there exists a latitude-dependent ~ 1 mm shift between the geodetic reference frame of the ETRF2000 – to which the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) is tied up – and the GNSS solutions, which express their vertical velocity field with respect to the ITRF2014, as proposed in Thiéblemont et al. (2024). Following Thiéblemont et al. (2024), this review paper has produced maps and mean velocities with a + 1 mm/yr correction applied to the available EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data. The data presented in this study provide valuable insights into a critical utilization of ground motion dynamics in the European Mediterranean region. The general outcome of our analysis indicates that the alignment between EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data, GNSS data, and geological estimates of subsidence/uplift rates becomes apparent for ground motion detected by Sentinel-1 exceeding 1 mm/yr. Furthermore, Costantini et al. (2021, 2022) also highlighted the overall alignment between EGMS and GNSS data. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to conduct a comprehensive comparison with long-term geological data from regions with a range of tectonic characteristics. In doing so, we have reviewed several MIS 5.5 datasets (see Table S1) and have compared both stable and subsiding regions, with localized evidence of uplift. The most notable uplift is observed in the actively resurgent dome of Pozzuoli within the Campi Flegrei Caldera (see Fig. 10a). This scenario differs from that observed in deflating calderas (i.e. Santorini; Fig. 10c), where a steady subsidence trend is recorded (–6.4 mm/yr). The observed dynamics is recent volcano-tectonic crisis along the Amorgos rift that caused uplift in Santorini. Also, it should be remarked that in the 2011–2012 period, preceding the average estimates of EGMS Ortho (Level 3) (Fig. 10c), Nea Kameni was affected by uplift possibly due to shallow magma emplacement (Parks et al., 2012).

It is recommended that caution be exercised in applying EGMS Ortho (Level 3) analysis in stable coastal areas with well-documented Quaternary stratigraphic records (e.g., in the Balearic Islands; Del Valle et al., 2024; Perazzotti et al., 2024), as RMSE errors ranging from 1 mm/yr to approximately 1.6 mm/yr along the Sardinian coasts or 1.3 mm/yr along the coast of southern part of the Bulgarian coast. In all of these cases, the associated measurement errors are two to three orders of magnitude larger than the rates estimated from the longer-term geological data averaged over the last 118 kyr.

The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data demonstrates to be an exceptional tool to detect localized ground motion phenomena in highly subsiding active areas, as evidenced by its application to the buried Apennine orogenic front (Fig. 6a). Similarly, the methodology employed in the foreland coastal plains of northern Italy, could be applied to the Danube delta in Romania (Constantin et al., 2014; Vespremeanu-Stroe et al., 2017). As illustrated, on the EGMS Ortho (Level 3), subsidence rates have been recorded to drop as rapidly as –12 mm/yr since summer 2020.

Along the Italian coasts, the alignment with geological evidence, particularly insights from Ferranti et al. (2006, 2010) and Barreca et al. (2013), further supports the effectiveness of EGMS Ortho (Level 3) in capturing large variations (>1 mm/yr) associated with non-seismic tectonic motion. In this regard, the scenario at Ustica volcano
introduces an intriguing dimension, where subsidence aligns with GPS data but stands in contrast to the indications of slight uplift derived from both MIS 5.5 and Holocene markers (Furlani et al., 2017).

In Greece, a number of coastal locations have been observed to exhibit a range of pre-, co-, and post-seismic effects. For example, in the Gulf of Corinth (15 km northwest of Aegion), the 2021 seismic sequence (Moment Magnitude, M<sub>w</sub> = 5.2; http://www.geophysics.geol.uoa.gr/) and on the northern part of Samos Island in the Aegean Sea, the 2020 seismic sequence (M<sub>w</sub> = 7; Ganas et al., 2021) demonstrate earthquake-related offsets that can be visualized on the EGMS Ortho (Level 3), although their co-seismic offset do not correspond to field measurements as they only exceeds a few centimeters (Foumelis et al., 2022). The Samos event, according to EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data, generated a general uplift ranging from approximately 0.8 cm to 8.5 cm, which aligns with the GNSS order of magnitude estimated by Kiratzi et al. (2021). However, this is not consistent with the co-seismic uplift of Holocene tidal notches recorded by Evelpidou et al. (2021), who measured uplifted notches ranging from 8 to 35 cm.

The observed discrepancy between the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data and the GPS data in an area where the EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data record a significant seismic event should be considered in light of two factors: Firstly, the complex interactions between short-term and long-term deformations, as previously emphasized by Costantini et al. (2021, 2022), must be considered. Secondly, the intrinsic limitation of InSAR processing when the ground displacement exceeds half an interferometric fringe between two data acquisitions must be acknowledged.

This discrepancy underscores the necessity of local-scale geological analysis in understanding the intricate dynamics of ground motion (Fig. 3). A more detailed comprehension of spatiotemporal variations in ground movements, as provided by longer measurement periods, may improve our ability to evaluate geological processes such as seismic and volcanic hazards.

Several areas in Iceland, Greece and Cyprus seem suitable for applying and refining this methodology, which can also be extended to other regions worldwide. MIS 5.5 beach levels have been described globally, for instance, in South Africa (Jacobs and Roberts, 2009; Cawthra et al., 2018), the Bahamas (Hearty and Neumann, 2001; Mylroie, 2008), and Australia (Hearty and O'Leary, 2008), among others, as well as the phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from Mallorca (De Waele et al., 2017; Polyak et al., 2018; Dumitru et al., 2021). Further quantitative analysis is required to provide valuable insights into the comparison of short- and long-term observed velocities from different perspectives and technologies when applied to natural geological processes.

## 5. Conclusions

A Comparison of long-term geological vertical movement data, encompassing MIS 5.5 Upper Pleistocene forms and deposits, and InSAR Copernicus EGMS Ortho (Level 3) based on Sentinel-1 L3 data allows us to discern areas affected by several geological processes occurring at the local and regional scale.

A review of selected Italian and Greek coastal regions has yielded to the following conclusions:

1. The limitations of EGMS Ortho (Level 3) sensitivity in stable areas, such as Sardinia and southern Lazio, which have demonstrated to have experienced vertical movements since the MIS 5.5, frequently fall below the sensitivity threshold of current EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data (1 mm/yr) and GNSS data. This makes the detection of smaller changes challenging, despite minor local variations (0.01 to 0.02 mm/yr) that are likely attributable to faulting, magmatism, and gravitational collapses. However, in the vicinity of the principal fault bounding the Pontina Graben, it was evident that the post-MIS 5.5 subsidence trends are amplified by a factor of three orders of magnitude due to the rapid anthropogenic compaction of soft sediments within the hanging wall block of normal faults.

2. Complex ground motion in foreland basin, such as in the northern Italy coastal plains allows to the detect the influence of active structural patterns, such as the buried Apennine orogenic front. The tectonic-driven vertical signal is likely amplified by the differential compaction of sediments, which also experience the effects of anthropogenic activities typical of industrialized areas. In these regions, the long-term subsidence of Veneto aligns with GNSS and EGMS data (0.7–1.0 mm/yr), while those of the most industrialized sectors of Romagna show faster GNSS subsidence rates (~8 mm/yr). The faster rates are likely driven by anthropogenic factors, particularly in sediments younger than MIS 5.5, such as changes in groundwater extraction over time.

3. The interpretation of interseismic recharge in southern Calabria and eastern Sicily within the context of tectonically active regions, including the Messina Strait, is indicated by the contrasting rates based on short- and long-term estimates. The EGMS and GNSS data indicate subtle subsidence or reduced uplift, which contrasts with the long-term uplift trends (~1.4 mm/yr over the last 118 ka). This phenomenon may be attributed to interseismic elastic loading from major faults, such as the Malta Escarpment, which is linked to the 1693 earthquake in southeastern Sicily.

In considering the general aspects of our review, a few key aspects emerge:

1. The utilization of EGMS Sentinel-1 Ortho (Level 3) data, corrected by an increment of +1 mm/yr, demonstrates a regional to local alignment with GNSS and geological estimates of subsidence/uplift rates when vertical ground motion exceeds 1 mm/yr.

2. The ability to successfully detect localized ground motion and attribute it to specific natural or anthropic processes is possibly thanks to a multiscale regional to local geological analysis of structural maps and outcropping structures. The EGMS Ortho (Level 3) data is highly effective in identifying localized ground motion in foreland basins of high subsidence, such as the Danube delta and the Adriatic coasts, where subsidence rates can reach up to –12 mm/yr.

3. Tectonic activity, earthquakes and volcanoes: in geodynamically active regions like Italy and Greece, EGMS data captures non-seismic tectonic motion, earthquake-related offsets, and volcanic inflation-deflation processes (e.g. the Campi Flegrei and Santorini calderas), though discrepancies exist in co-seismic uplift measurements (e.g., Samos earthquake). In this regions, inconsistencies between EGMS and GNSS data highlight the necessity for local-scale geological analysis to understand short- and long-term deformation processes, particularly when ground displacement exceeds InSAR limitations (i. e., when seismic offset gradient is greater than half the interferometric fringe per pixel, or half the SAR wavelength between two SAR acquisition dates).

The methodology employed in the Mediterranean is applicable to other regions globally, including South Africa, the Bahamas, and Australia, for the comparison of short- and long-term ground movement data and geological processes such as seismic and volcanic hazards. Further quantitative studies are required to gain a deeper understanding of the comparison between short-term velocities (from EGMS and GNSS) and long-term geological data. In conclusion, the dataset from the Copernicus website is an invaluable resource for present day crustal deformation monitoring, offering a freely accessible tool for reconstructing and interpreting the relative motion of crustal blocks, and providing insights into tectonic, volcano-tectonic, and anthropogenic processes.
Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no financial interests or personal relationships that could be seen as potential competing interests. G. Barreca was the recipient of funding from the University of Catania (Italy) in the context of the SeismoFront project (Grant No. 22722132176), which was led by G. Barreca. This research was also funded by PRIN AdriaLab project - On the dynamics of the Adria plate: a natural laboratory for multiple subduction systems - in the frame of PRIN 2022, under grant number 2022XZ3W22 (fund manager C. Monaco).

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the European Environmental Agency, European Union Copernicus Program, European Ground Motion Service for providing instrumental ground motion data. In addition, gratitude is extended to the colleagues who contributed to the collection of geological vertical motion data and to G. Selvaggi for providing GNSS data. Finally, D. Rozza and E. Schisani are thanked for their valuable insights and discussions. The authors also thank the editor A. Negri and two anonymous reviewers, whose contributions helped to improve the manuscript.

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105132.

Data availability

All the data used in this paper are publicly accessible.

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