D) Robustness tests:

We present three exercises to test the robustness of the main results. The first exercise verifies the parallel trends assumption by implementing false interventions over the three years prior the AUH implementation. Tables SD1 and SD2 below present the estimated coefficients for each dependent variable restricted to the pre-AUH period without and with controls, respectively. Most coefficients are not significant, or only indicate a slight divergence that does not persist over time. In the early 2000s, few other social programs such as the PJJHD (Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogares Desocupados) in 2002 and the Plan Familias in 2005 were in place to reduce the high unemployment and poverty rates after the country's 2001 economic crisis, affecting households similarly targeted by the AUH (unemployed or non-employable people). The number of PJJHD beneficiaries gradually declined as well as its effectiveness since its value was not adjusted for inflation, which may explain slight divergences in trends between the two groups in the early period of analysis.

The second exercise checks the sensitivity of the results to different variations from the main specification. First, Table SD3 shows alternative econometric specifications: when a DD strategy without matching is used; when the specification is only adjusted by kernels weights (without survey expansion weights); and when an additional correction for attrition is implemented. To address potential bias from non-random attrition, we perform an inverse-probability weighting adjustment based on a probit model predicting panel retention using households characteristics (Paz, 2013). Before the matching, the original survey weights are adjusted based on this probability. Results remain stable to these modifications.

Figure SD1 summarizes the effects of AUH eligibility on each indicator across different sample selections. In the top line (i), the different models modify the sample size by restricting or adding deciles of the national distribution per capita income from D2 to D5. In the bottom line (ii), we test the sensitivity of the results to different variations in the eligibility criteria compared to the main results (Model 1): Model 2 restricts the analysis period to 2013; Model 3 excludes households with incomplete reporting of income; Model 4 retains only households being fully eligible or non-eligible over the entire observation period; Model 5 retains only households with complete follow-up (i.e. with four interviews),
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Figure A7: Standardized bias before and after the matching</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.
and Model 6 finally adds all households with at least two interviews. In all cases, the conclusions remain
the same and demonstrate the robustness of the results. All the estimates are reported in the following
Tables SD4 and SD5.

In the third and last exercise, we use alternative DD estimators instead of the MDD strategy: (a) the
Improved Doubly Robust DD estimator (DRIMP), (b) the Doubly Robust DD estimator (DRIPW), (c)
and the Inverse Probability Weighting DD estimator with stabilized weights (STDIPW). The DRIMP
and DRIPW estimators are proposed by Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). Clustered standards errors at the
large urban area level are computed using Wild bootstrap method with 5,000 repetitions to get uniform
confidence bands and account for multiple testing issues. All analyses are conducted using the Stata
package "CSDID" by Rios-Avila et al. (2021).

Table SD6 reports the ITT effects estimated by different methods across all outcomes. The coefficients are consistently signed and of comparable magnitude to those obtained via the MDD approach (Table 2). The only notable difference is a reduced significance level (10%) for the coefficient of the CV in the subgroup of households experiencing a decline in income.

We show the event study graphs in Figure SD2, using the -1 period as the reference. We include both
the uniform confidence intervals and Pointwise confidence intervals at 95%. Table SD7 presents
dynamic ITT effects from the event study framework, including the average effects for the pre- and post-
AUH periods and joint significance tests for the pre-AUH periods. We fail to reject the null hypothesis
of zero pre-AUH coefficients, except for the subsample of households with income decline (Columns 3
and 6). It is mainly driven by a slight divergence between eligible and non-eligible groups at period -3.
Nevertheless, the average ITT effect over the pre-AUH period is not significantly different from zero in
any case, which still support the fact that the two groups experienced a similar evolution in their income
stability prior to the program's implementation.
<table><caption>Table A2: Effect of the AUH on income stability using alternative monetary ranges for the vulnerable group</caption><thead><tr><th colspan="2">Panel A: [$5.5; $13.5]</th><th colspan="2">(1)</th><th colspan="2">(2)</th><th colspan="2">(3)</th><th colspan="2">(4)</th></tr><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th colspan="2">Poverty trends</th><th colspan="2">CV</th><th colspan="2">CV-down</th><th colspan="2">CV-up</th></tr><tr><th></th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.1196***</strong><br>(0.0087)</td><td><strong>-0.0681***</strong><br>(0.0129)</td><td><strong>-0.0267***</strong><br>(0.0071)</td><td><strong>-0.0412***</strong><br>(0.0069)</td><td><strong>-0.0389***</strong><br>(0.0073)</td><td><strong>-0.0589***</strong><br>(0.0111)</td><td><strong>-0.0209*</strong><br>(0.0121)</td><td><strong>-0.0323**</strong><br>(0.0133)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2717***</strong><br>(0.0101)</td><td><strong>0.2063***</strong><br>(0.0136)</td><td><strong>0.0919***</strong><br>(0.0056)</td><td><strong>0.1044***</strong><br>(0.0063)</td><td><strong>0.0884***</strong><br>(0.0138)</td><td><strong>0.1038***</strong><br>(0.0186)</td><td><strong>0.0958***</strong><br>(0.0035)</td><td><strong>0.1063***</strong><br>(0.0039)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>-0.0504***</strong><br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>0.0149*</strong><br>(0.0085)</td><td>0.0060<br>(0.0045)</td><td>-0.0088<br>(0.0192)</td><td>0.0149*<br>(0.0079)</td><td>0.0071<br>(0.0120)</td><td>0.0029<br>(0.0057)</td><td>-0.0165<br>(0.0286)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.1519</td><td>0.3158</td><td>0.0274</td><td>0.0503</td><td>0.0221</td><td>0.0521</td><td>0.0320</td><td>0.0578</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>29,557</td><td>29,557</td><td>29,557</td><td>29,557</td><td>9,923</td><td>9,923</td><td>19,634</td><td>19,634</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td colspan="2">0.158</td><td colspan="2">0.353</td><td colspan="2">0.326</td><td colspan="2">0.365</td></tr><tr><th colspan="2">Panel B: [$5.5; $15.5]</th><th colspan="2">(1)</th><th colspan="2">(2)</th><th colspan="2">(3)</th><th colspan="2">(4)</th></tr><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th colspan="2">Poverty trends</th><th colspan="2">CV</th><th colspan="2">CV-down</th><th colspan="2">CV-up</th></tr><tr><th></th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th><th>(i)</th><th>(ii)</th></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.1262***</strong><br>(0.0086)</td><td><strong>-0.0728***</strong><br>(0.0118)</td><td><strong>-0.0234***</strong><br>(0.0052)</td><td><strong>-0.0338***</strong><br>(0.0059)</td><td><strong>-0.0321***</strong><br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>-0.0459***</strong><br>(0.0115)</td><td>-0.0191<br>(0.0113)</td><td><strong>-0.0269**</strong><br>(0.0131)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2751***</strong><br>(0.0112)</td><td><strong>0.2021***</strong><br>(0.0133)</td><td><strong>0.0915***</strong><br>(0.0052)</td><td><strong>0.1007***</strong><br>(0.0053)</td><td><strong>0.0835***</strong><br>(0.0122)</td><td><strong>0.0923***</strong><br>(0.0158)</td><td><strong>0.0973***</strong><br>(0.0032)</td><td><strong>0.1062***</strong><br>(0.0034)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>-0.0463***</strong><br>(0.0086)</td><td><strong>0.0177***</strong><br>(0.0061)</td><td>0.0024<br>(0.0035)</td><td>-0.0095<br>(0.0149)</td><td>0.0131<br>(0.0093)</td><td>0.0056<br>(0.0115)</td><td>-0.0019<br>(0.0052)</td><td>-0.0177<br>(0.0251)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.1630</td><td>0.3327</td><td>0.0292</td><td>0.0482</td><td>0.0214</td><td>0.0449</td><td>0.0353</td><td>0.0575</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>33,792</td><td>33,792</td><td>33,792</td><td>33,792</td><td>11,855</td><td>11,855</td><td>21,937</td><td>21,937</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td colspan="2">0.133</td><td colspan="2">0.348</td><td colspan="2">0.325</td><td colspan="2">0.359</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Difference-in-difference estimates. The poverty trends indicator (1) measures the time spent in poverty by a household during its observation period, i.e. income per capita below $5.5/day (PPP 2011). The CV (2) is the coefficient of variation of household income. The CV-down and CV-up indicators (3 and 4) are calculated for households with a drop and increase in income respectively between the first and second year of observation. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child and classified as poor or vulnerable in the first year of appearance in the survey, i.e. income per capita below $13.5 (Panel A) and $15.5 (Panel B) per day. Eligible variable takes the value 1 if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After variable takes the value one for the periods after the AUH implementation (2010-2015), otherwise zero (2004-2009). Control variables include household head age and squared, gender, whether single parent, number of children under and over 18 and squared, household size, parents' highest level of education, whether parents have multiple jobs, whether the household benefited from the PJJHD program during the period and its interaction with the treatment variable, and time and region fixed effects. Clustered standard errors are in brackets (by large urban areas). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The value in the last row corresponds to the average of the dependent variable for the control group before the AUH implementation.
<table><caption>Table SD1: Matched Difference-in-difference results – False interventions without controls</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>False intervention<br>2006</td><td>-0.0068<br>(0.0122)</td><td>0.0044<br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>-0.0306**</strong><br>(0.0119)</td><td>0.0138<br>(0.0150)</td><td>-2.1605<br>(1.5014)</td><td>-2.1995<br>(2.8433)</td><td>-2.3007<br>(1.4098)</td></tr><tr><td>2007</td><td><strong>-0.0226**</strong><br>(0.0101)</td><td>-0.0082<br>(0.0082)</td><td>-0.0198<br>(0.0170)</td><td>-0.0054<br>(0.0108)</td><td>-2.9937<br>(1.8814)</td><td>-0.1165<br>(3.3764)</td><td><strong>-4.3306**</strong><br>(2.0179)</td></tr><tr><td>2008</td><td><strong>-0.0326*</strong><br>(0.0183)</td><td>0.0214<br>(0.0164)</td><td>-0.0064<br>(0.0414)</td><td>0.0319<br>(0.0355)</td><td>3.4710<br>(2.5093)</td><td>6.8082<br>(5.2532)</td><td>1.5173<br>(4.3917)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>13,061</td><td>13,061</td><td>4,010</td><td>9,051</td><td>13,061</td><td>4,010</td><td>9,051</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Matched Difference-in-difference estimates using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of household income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change in income. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After corresponds to the years after the false implementation. Clustered standard errors at the large urban area level (in parentheses). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

<table><caption>Table SD2: Matched Difference-in-difference results – False interventions with controls</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>False intervention<br>2006</td><td>-0.0161<br>(0.0119)</td><td>0.0092<br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>-0.0400**</strong><br>(0.0160)</td><td>0.0236<br>(0.0164)</td><td>-1.1737<br>(1.2421)</td><td>-2.1736<br>(2.5406)</td><td>-0.9874<br>(1.3111)</td></tr><tr><td>2007</td><td><strong>-0.0234**</strong><br>(0.0102)</td><td>-0.0033<br>(0.0081)</td><td>-0.0281<br>(0.0221)</td><td>0.0030<br>(0.0118)</td><td>-2.2593<br>(1.7787)</td><td>0.2791<br>(3.2624)</td><td><strong>-3.4432*</strong><br>(2.0060)</td></tr><tr><td>2008</td><td>-0.0046<br>(0.0161)</td><td>0.0243<br>(0.0164)</td><td>-0.0039<br>(0.0391)</td><td>0.0354<br>(0.0353)</td><td>3.7959<br>(2.4143)</td><td><strong>8.3547*</strong><br>(4.6943)</td><td>1.6384<br>(4.1295)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>13,061</td><td>13,061</td><td>4,010</td><td>9,051</td><td>13,061</td><td>4,010</td><td>9,051</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Matched Difference-in-difference estimates using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of household income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change in income. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After corresponds to the years after the false implementation. Control variables include time and region fixed effects, the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education, and if a member has not declared one income source. Clustered standard errors at the large urban area level (in parentheses). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
<table><caption>Table A3: Effect of the AUH on income stability using deciles of household per capita income distribution</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Dependent variables<br>Sample restricted to ≤</th><th colspan="4">(1)<br>Poverty trends</th><th colspan="4">(2)<br>CV</th></tr><tr><th>D2<br>(i)</th><th>D3<br>(ii)</th><th>D4<br>(iii)</th><th>D5<br>(iv)</th><th>D2<br>(i)</th><th>D3<br>(ii)</th><th>D4<br>(iii)</th><th>D5<br>(iv)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0267***</strong><br>(0.0117)</td><td><strong>-0.0659***</strong><br>(0.0136)</td><td><strong>-0.0771***</strong><br>(0.0116)</td><td><strong>-0.0821***</strong><br>(0.0118)</td><td><strong>-0.0540***</strong><br>(0.0072)</td><td><strong>-0.0334***</strong><br>(0.0055)</td><td><strong>-0.0294***</strong><br>(0.0042)</td><td><strong>-0.0258***</strong><br>(0.0047)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.1847***</strong><br>(0.0089)</td><td><strong>0.2045***</strong><br>(0.0136)</td><td><strong>0.2025***</strong><br>(0.0129)</td><td><strong>0.1990***</strong><br>(0.0139)</td><td><strong>0.1234***</strong><br>(0.0181)</td><td><strong>0.1123***</strong><br>(0.0097)</td><td><strong>0.1079***</strong><br>(0.0064)</td><td><strong>0.1076***</strong><br>(0.0047)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>-0.0511***</strong><br>(0.0122)</td><td>0.0017<br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>0.0152**</strong><br>(0.0073)</td><td><strong>0.0211***</strong><br>(0.0055)</td><td>-0.0109<br>(0.0205)</td><td>-0.0195<br>(0.0154)</td><td>-0.0164<br>(0.0140)</td><td>-0.0140<br>(0.0130)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional<br>dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.4060</td><td>0.3804</td><td>0.3701</td><td>0.3722</td><td>0.0827</td><td>0.0651</td><td>0.0576</td><td>0.0564</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,392</td><td>25,808</td><td>32,891</td><td>38,757</td><td>17,392</td><td>25,808</td><td>32,891</td><td>38,757</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.227</td><td>0.165</td><td>0.130</td><td>0.373</td><td>0.353</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.332</td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Dependent variables<br>Sample restricted to : ≤</th><th colspan="4">(3)<br>CV-down</th><th colspan="4">(4)<br>CV-up</th></tr><tr><th>D2<br>(i)</th><th>D3<br>(ii)</th><th>D4<br>(iii)</th><th>D5<br>(iv)</th><th>D2<br>(i)</th><th>D3<br>(ii)</th><th>D4<br>(iii)</th><th>D5<br>(iv)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0765***</strong><br>(0.0239)</td><td><strong>-0.0652***</strong><br>(0.0113)</td><td><strong>-0.0453***</strong><br>(0.0107)</td><td><strong>-0.0366***</strong><br>(0.0106)</td><td><strong>-0.0459***</strong><br>(0.0100)</td><td><strong>-0.0198*</strong><br>(0.0099)</td><td><strong>-0.0217**</strong><br>(0.0099)</td><td><strong>-0.0196*</strong><br>(0.0114)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.1441***</strong><br>(0.0404)</td><td><strong>0.1226***</strong><br>(0.0196)</td><td><strong>0.1041***</strong><br>(0.0162)</td><td><strong>0.1029***</strong><br>(0.0129)</td><td><strong>0.1199***</strong><br>(0.0118)</td><td><strong>0.1118***</strong><br>(0.0068)</td><td><strong>0.1127***</strong><br>(0.0046)</td><td><strong>0.1118***</strong><br>(0.0044)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-0.0056<br>(0.0138)</td><td>0.0144<br>(0.0130)</td><td>0.0023<br>(0.0100)</td><td>-0.0104<br>(0.0068)</td><td>-0.0114<br>(0.0301)</td><td>-0.0341<br>(0.0243)</td><td>-0.0257<br>(0.0222)</td><td>-0.0150<br>(0.0185)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional<br>dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.0766</td><td>0.0631</td><td>0.0550</td><td>0.0550</td><td>0.0917</td><td>0.0724</td><td>0.0666</td><td>0.0638</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>5,144</td><td>8,532</td><td>11,685</td><td>14,456</td><td>12,248</td><td>17,276</td><td>21,206</td><td>24,301</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>0.313</td><td>0.301</td><td>0.304</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.392</td><td>0.373</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.346</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Difference-in-difference estimates. The poverty trends indicator (1) measures the time spent in poverty by a household during its observation period, i.e. income per capita below $5.5/day (PPP 2011). The CV (2) is the coefficient of variation of household income. The CV-down and CV-up indicators (3 and 4) are calculated for households with a drop and increase in income respectively between the first and second year of observation. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child and belonging to the corresponding poorest deciles (D2 to D5) of the household per capita income distribution in the first year of appearance in the survey. Eligible variable takes the value 1 if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After variable takes the value one for the periods after the AUH implementation (2010-2015), otherwise zero (2004-2009). Control variables include household head age and squared, gender, whether single parent, number of children under and over 18 and squared, household size, parents' highest level of education, whether parents have multiple jobs, whether the household benefited from the PJJHD program during the period and its interaction with the treatment variable, and time and region fixed effects. Clustered standard errors are in brackets (by large urban areas). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The value in the last row corresponds to the average of the dependent variable for the control group before the AUH implementation.
<table><caption>Table SD3: Difference-in-difference robustness – Alternative specifications</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="8"><strong>(a) Attrition</strong></td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0859***</strong><br>(0.0072)</td><td><strong>-0.0186***</strong><br>(0.0053)</td><td><strong>-0.0554***</strong><br>(0.0123)</td><td>-0.0007<br>(0.0104)</td><td><strong>-5.0609***</strong><br>(0.7625)</td><td><strong>-13.0655***</strong><br>(3.5913)</td><td>-0.5928<br>(1.6502)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2243***</strong><br>(0.0095)</td><td><strong>0.0830***</strong><br>(0.0067)</td><td><strong>0.0964***</strong><br>(0.0171)</td><td><strong>0.0805***</strong><br>(0.0049)</td><td><strong>12.6912***</strong><br>(0.7671)</td><td><strong>14.2152***</strong><br>(1.7616)</td><td><strong>12.0695***</strong><br>(1.0447)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>0.0065<br>(0.0086)</td><td>-0.0215<br>(0.0143)</td><td>-0.0051<br>(0.0133)</td><td><strong>-0.0291*</strong><br>(0.0161)</td><td>0.9608<br>(2.2596)</td><td>7.9492<br>(5.9927)</td><td><strong>-2.7649**</strong><br>(1.0737)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="8"><strong>(b) Kernel weights only</strong></td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0813***</strong><br>(0.0102)</td><td><strong>-0.0212***</strong><br>(0.0074)</td><td><strong>-0.0213*</strong><br>(0.0108)</td><td><strong>-0.0221**</strong><br>(0.0097)</td><td><strong>-3.9478***</strong><br>(1.0407)</td><td><strong>-4.1912*</strong><br>(2.0681)</td><td><strong>-3.7720**</strong><br>(1.4911)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2306***</strong><br>(0.0099)</td><td><strong>0.0808***</strong><br>(0.0071)</td><td><strong>0.0697***</strong><br>(0.0100)</td><td><strong>0.0887***</strong><br>(0.0077)</td><td><strong>12.0954***</strong><br>(0.9709)</td><td><strong>10.9161***</strong><br>(1.7459)</td><td><strong>12.7343***</strong><br>(0.9982)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>0.0001<br>(0.0107)</td><td>-0.0123<br>(0.0092)</td><td><strong>-0.0271**</strong><br>(0.0109)</td><td>-0.0059<br>(0.0125)</td><td><strong>-2.3436*</strong><br>(1.3461)</td><td>-2.7295<br>(2.9229)</td><td>-2.0541<br>(1.8999)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="8"><strong>(c) No matching</strong></td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0934***</strong><br>(0.0069)</td><td><strong>-0.0147*</strong><br>(0.0073)</td><td><strong>-0.0441***</strong><br>(0.0069)</td><td>-0.0022<br>(0.0118)</td><td><strong>-3.7601***</strong><br>(1.1265)</td><td><strong>-8.9097***</strong><br>(1.9959)</td><td>-1.2675<br>(2.0162)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2252***</strong><br>(0.0076)</td><td><strong>0.0886***</strong><br>(0.0063)</td><td><strong>0.0942***</strong><br>(0.0133)</td><td><strong>0.0901***</strong><br>(0.0048)</td><td><strong>13.7423***</strong><br>(0.6618)</td><td><strong>14.5035***</strong><br>(1.6768)</td><td><strong>13.5828***</strong><br>(0.7550)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>0.0202**</strong><br>(0.0087)</td><td><strong>-0.0315*</strong><br>(0.0171)</td><td>-0.0057<br>(0.0106)</td><td><strong>-0.0430*</strong><br>(0.0247)</td><td>-0.9196<br>(1.3184)</td><td>5.2084<br>(6.3053)</td><td><strong>-3.9214*</strong><br>(2.0662)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations (a)</td><td>25,507</td><td>25,507</td><td>8,506</td><td>17,001</td><td>25,507</td><td>8,506</td><td>17,001</td></tr><tr><td>Observations (b)</td><td>25,786</td><td>25,786</td><td>8,525</td><td>17,261</td><td>25,786</td><td>8,525</td><td>17,261</td></tr><tr><td>Observations (c)</td><td>25,808</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: For Panel (a), Matched Difference-in-difference estimates are adjusted for attrition. We use inverse-probability weights from a probit model predicting panel retention and adjust the original expansion weights. In Panel (b), we only use kernel weights for Matched Difference-in-difference estimates. In Panel (c), we only rely on a standard difference-in-difference specification without matching. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of per capita income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After corresponds to the years after the AUH implementation (2010-2015). Control variables include time and region fixed effects, the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education, and if a member has not declared one income source. Clustered standard errors at the large urban area level (in parentheses). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
<table><caption>Table A4: Effect of the AUH on income stability using alternative restrictions on the sample size</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Dependent variables<br>Model:</th><th colspan="6">(1)<br>Poverty trends</th><th colspan="6">(2)<br>CV</th></tr><tr><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0829***</strong><br>(0.0092)</td><td><strong>-0.0820***</strong><br>(0.0222)</td><td><strong>-0.0603***</strong><br>(0.0135)</td><td><strong>-0.0765***</strong><br>(0.0133)</td><td><strong>-0.0613***</strong><br>(0.0053)</td><td><strong>-0.0397***</strong><br>(0.0081)</td><td><strong>-0.0379***</strong><br>(0.0102)</td><td><strong>-0.0408***</strong><br>(0.0121)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2324***</strong><br>(0.0096)</td><td><strong>0.2722***</strong><br>(0.0165)</td><td><strong>0.2095***</strong><br>(0.0127)</td><td><strong>0.2236***</strong><br>(0.0165)</td><td><strong>0.1146***</strong><br>(0.0104)</td><td><strong>0.1094***</strong><br>(0.0108)</td><td><strong>0.1020***</strong><br>(0.0073)</td><td><strong>0.0965***</strong><br>(0.0085)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>0.0305***</strong><br>(0.0078)</td><td><strong>0.0214**</strong><br>(0.0104)</td><td>0.0116<br>(0.0109)</td><td>0.0026<br>(0.0110)</td><td><strong>0.0377***</strong><br>(0.0085)</td><td>-0.0072<br>(0.0166)</td><td>-0.0098<br>(0.0212)</td><td>0.0003<br>(0.0184)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional<br>dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.2710</td><td>0.3373</td><td>0.2962</td><td>0.3115</td><td>0.0517</td><td>0.0613</td><td>0.0524</td><td>0.0448</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>35,545</td><td>19,098</td><td>22,571</td><td>17,082</td><td>35,545</td><td>19,098</td><td>22,571</td><td>17,082</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>0.191</td><td>0.161</td><td>0.195</td><td>0.204</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.365</td><td>0.336</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Dependent variables<br>Model:</th><th colspan="6">(3)<br>CV-down</th><th colspan="6">(4)<br>CV-up</th></tr><tr><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th><th>Model 2<br>(i)</th><th>Model 3<br>(ii)</th><th>Model 4<br>(iii)</th><th>Model 5<br>(iv)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0788***</strong><br>(0.0113)</td><td><strong>-0.0700***</strong><br>(0.0186)</td><td><strong>-0.0610***</strong><br>(0.0081)</td><td><strong>-0.0624***</strong><br>(0.0184)</td><td><strong>-0.0514***</strong><br>(0.0102)</td><td><strong>-0.0285*</strong><br>(0.0145)</td><td><strong>-0.0279*</strong><br>(0.0144)</td><td><strong>-0.0299</strong><br>(0.0238)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.1192***</strong><br>(0.0188)</td><td><strong>0.1619***</strong><br>(0.0261)</td><td><strong>0.1073***</strong><br>(0.0204)</td><td><strong>0.1010***</strong><br>(0.0240)</td><td><strong>0.1158***</strong><br>(0.0071)</td><td><strong>0.0960***</strong><br>(0.0066)</td><td><strong>0.1021***</strong><br>(0.0039)</td><td><strong>0.0955***</strong><br>(0.0060)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>0.0509**</strong><br>(0.0187)</td><td>0.0291<br>(0.0190)</td><td>0.0064<br>(0.0141)</td><td>0.0063<br>(0.0209)</td><td><strong>0.0321**</strong><br>(0.0153)</td><td>-0.0210<br>(0.0276)</td><td>-0.0159<br>(0.0280)</td><td>-0.0012<br>(0.0338)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional<br>dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.0413</td><td>0.0847</td><td>0.0597</td><td>0.0628</td><td>0.0625</td><td>0.0622</td><td>0.0580</td><td>0.0474</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>11,924</td><td>6,347</td><td>7,180</td><td>5,695</td><td>23,621</td><td>12,751</td><td>15,391</td><td>11,387</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>0.302</td><td>0.276</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.317</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.344</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Difference-in-difference estimates. The poverty trends indicator (1) measures the time spent in poverty by a household during its observation period, i.e. income per capita below $5.5/day (PPP 2011). The CV (2) is the coefficient of variation of household income. The CV-down and CV-up indicators (3 and 4) are calculated for households with a drop and increase in income respectively between the first and second year of interview. In Model 2, the sample includes all households with at least two interviews over time, instead of more than three. In Model 3, household eligibility is based on the entire observation period, not just the first year. In Model 3, the analysis period is restricted to 2004-2013 instead of 2004-2015. Finally, Model 5 drops households where at least one household member has not declared a source of income over the analysis period. Control variables include household head age and squared, gender, whether single parent, number of children under and over 18 and squared, household size, parents' highest level of education, whether parents have multiple jobs, whether the household benefited from the PIJHD program during the period and its interaction with the treatment variable, and time and region fixed effects. Clustered standard errors are in brackets (by large urban areas). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The value in the last row corresponds to the average of the dependent variable for the control group before the AUH implementation.
<figure><img src="image_22.png" /><figcaption>Figure SD1: Matched Difference-in-difference robustness – Alternative sample sizes</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Matched Difference-in-difference estimates using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. The coefficients shown correspond to the interaction terms between the treatment variable and a time dummy based on equation (6) with all controls and using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. Standard errors are clustered at the large urban area level. Confidence intervals at 90% and 95% are shown. The poverty trends (PT) indicator measures the time spent in poverty by a household during its observation period. i.e. income per capita below $5.5/day (PPP 2011). The CV is the coefficient of variation of household income. The SD-APC is the standard deviation of arc percentage change of household income. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.
<caption>Table SD4: Matched Difference-in-difference robustness – Sample size: income deciles</caption>

(a) PT indicator

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: Poverty trends</th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0349***</strong><br>(0.0076)</td><td><strong>-0.0852***</strong><br>(0.0066)</td><td><strong>-0.0966***</strong><br>(0.0064)</td><td><strong>-0.1042***</strong><br>(0.0066)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>0.1944***</strong><br>(0.0081)</td><td><strong>0.2264***</strong><br>(0.0085)</td><td><strong>0.2276***</strong><br>(0.0096)</td><td><strong>0.2295***</strong><br>(0.0098)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>-0.0351**</strong><br>(0.0147)</td><td>0.0111<br>(0.0093)</td><td><strong>0.0180**</strong><br>(0.0074)</td><td><strong>0.0239***</strong><br>(0.0062)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,364</td><td>25,786</td><td>32,859</td><td>38,755</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.40</td><td>0.36</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.34</td></tr></tbody></table>

(b) CV indicator

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: CV</th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0261***</strong><br>(0.0072)</td><td><strong>-0.0213***</strong><br>(0.0064)</td><td><strong>-0.0176***</strong><br>(0.0050)</td><td><strong>-0.0158***</strong><br>(0.0052)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>0.0889***</strong><br>(0.0142)</td><td><strong>0.0935***</strong><br>(0.0081)</td><td><strong>0.0909***</strong><br>(0.0051)</td><td><strong>0.0942***</strong><br>(0.0044)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-0.0272<br>(0.0196)</td><td>-0.0211<br>(0.0163)</td><td>-0.0257<br>(0.0170)</td><td>-0.0248<br>(0.0170)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,364</td><td>25,786</td><td>32,859</td><td>38,755</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.09</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.07</td></tr></tbody></table>

(b) CV indicator – downward trend in income

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0524***</strong><br>(0.0167)</td><td><strong>-0.0513***</strong><br>(0.0109)</td><td><strong>-0.0260***</strong><br>(0.0066)</td><td><strong>-0.0214***</strong><br>(0.0067)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>0.1056***</strong><br>(0.0308)</td><td><strong>0.0970***</strong><br>(0.0171)</td><td><strong>0.0771***</strong><br>(0.0100)</td><td><strong>0.0817***</strong><br>(0.0084)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>-0.0354***</strong><br>(0.0120)</td><td>-0.0055<br>(0.0109)</td><td><strong>-0.0251**</strong><br>(0.0115)</td><td><strong>-0.0327**</strong><br>(0.0137)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>5,133</td><td>8,525</td><td>11,673</td><td>14,456</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.06</td></tr></tbody></table>
(c) CV indicator – upward trend in income

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td>-0.0140<br>(0.0140)</td><td>-0.0066<br>(0.0117)</td><td>-0.0104<br>(0.0108)</td><td>-0.0098<br>(0.0122)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>0.0871</strong>***<br>(0.0087)</td><td><strong>0.0953</strong>***<br>(0.0056)</td><td><strong>0.0991</strong>***<br>(0.0041)</td><td><strong>0.1017</strong>***<br>(0.0040)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-0.0252<br>(0.0299)</td><td>-0.0291<br>(0.0205)</td><td>-0.0284<br>(0.0213)</td><td>-0.0224<br>(0.0197)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>12,231</td><td>17,261</td><td>21,186</td><td>24,299</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.12</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.09</td><td>0.08</td></tr></tbody></table>

(d) SD-APC indicator

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: SD-APC</th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-5.4374</strong>***<br>(1.1175)</td><td><strong>-5.0392</strong>***<br>(0.7644)</td><td><strong>-3.4400</strong>***<br>(0.6768)</td><td><strong>-3.4079</strong>***<br>(0.5622)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>12.6685</strong>***<br>(1.7343)</td><td><strong>14.0255</strong>***<br>(0.8444)</td><td><strong>12.9696</strong>***<br>(0.6713)</td><td><strong>13.5934</strong>***<br>(0.6445)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-2.3356<br>(1.9032)</td><td>0.3340<br>(1.6286)</td><td>-1.8995<br>(1.2975)</td><td>-2.1325<br>(1.2591)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,364</td><td>25,786</td><td>32,859</td><td>38,755</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.04</td><td>0.04</td></tr></tbody></table>

(e) SD-APC indicator – downward trend in income

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sample restricted to ≤</td><td>D2</td><td>D3</td><td>D4</td><td>D5</td></tr><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-11.5075</strong>**<br>(4.6309)</td><td><strong>-11.4036</strong>***<br>(3.0767)</td><td><strong>-4.4701</strong>***<br>(1.5954)</td><td><strong>-4.2770</strong>**<br>(1.7343)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>14.7460</strong>***<br>(4.5143)</td><td><strong>14.7736</strong>***<br>(2.0763)</td><td><strong>10.4608</strong>***<br>(1.2613)</td><td><strong>11.8245</strong>***<br>(1.0543)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>1.1159<br>(6.8661)</td><td>6.8297<br>(5.7102)</td><td>-0.4561<br>(2.8896)</td><td>-1.6324<br>(2.2223)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>5,133</td><td>8,525</td><td>11,673</td><td>14,456</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.04</td><td>0.04</td></tr></tbody></table>
(f) SD-APC indicator – upward trend in income

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th><th>(1)</th><th>(2)</th><th>(3)</th><th>(4)</th></tr><tr><th>Sample restricted to ≤</th><th>D2</th><th>D3</th><th>D4</th><th>D5</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td>-2.6953<br>(1.7523)</td><td>-1.6429<br>(1.7695)</td><td>-2.3367<br>(1.5741)</td><td>-2.3408<br>(1.6256)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligibile</td><td><strong>11.9714***</strong><br>(0.9495)</td><td><strong>13.8318***</strong><br>(0.7413)</td><td><strong>14.3163***</strong><br>(0.6964)</td><td><strong>14.5967***</strong><br>(0.8229)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-3.9714<br>(2.3752)</td><td><strong>-2.9060**</strong><br>(1.3059)</td><td>-2.6774<br>(1.7644)</td><td>-2.5001<br>(1.8309)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>12,231</td><td>17,261</td><td>21,186</td><td>24,299</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.05</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Matched Difference-in-difference estimates using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of per capita income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the second to the fifth deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After corresponds to the years after the AUH implementation (2010-2015). Control variables include time and region fixed effects, the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education, and if a member has not declared one income source. Clustered standard errors at the large urban area level (in parentheses). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
<table><caption>Table SD5: Matched Difference-in-difference robustness – Sample size: eligibility</caption><caption>(a) Time restriction</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0795***</strong><br>(0.0073)</td><td><strong>-0.0206***</strong><br>(0.0064)</td><td><strong>-0.0481***</strong><br>(0.0092)</td><td>-0.0085<br>(0.0098)</td><td><strong>-5.1765***</strong><br>(0.8114)</td><td><strong>-10.7656***</strong><br>(2.2133)</td><td>-2.3456<br>(1.4012)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2269***</strong><br>(0.0083)</td><td><strong>0.0933***</strong><br>(0.0082)</td><td><strong>0.0970***</strong><br>(0.0175)</td><td><strong>0.0952***</strong><br>(0.0056)</td><td><strong>14.0003***</strong><br>(0.8563)</td><td><strong>14.7092***</strong><br>(2.1856)</td><td><strong>13.8420***</strong><br>(0.7354)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>0.0083<br>(0.0100)</td><td>-0.0216<br>(0.0165)</td><td>-0.0078<br>(0.0121)</td><td>-0.0283<br>(0.0193)</td><td>0.3286<br>(1.6380)</td><td>6.0920<br>(4.8686)</td><td><strong>-2.5584**</strong><br>(1.1938)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>22,469</td><td>22,469</td><td>7,240</td><td>15,229</td><td>22,469</td><td>7,240</td><td>15,229</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.36</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.06</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><caption>(b) Full income reporting</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0906***</strong><br>(0.0091)</td><td><strong>-0.0234***</strong><br>(0.0081)</td><td><strong>-0.0588**</strong><br>(0.0259)</td><td>-0.0037<br>(0.0206)</td><td><strong>-5.9574***</strong><br>(1.2142)</td><td><strong>-13.5565**</strong><br>(5.7921)</td><td>-1.5554<br>(2.7006)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2365***</strong><br>(0.0104)</td><td><strong>0.0889***</strong><br>(0.0112)</td><td><strong>0.0918***</strong><br>(0.0254)</td><td><strong>0.0903***</strong><br>(0.0072)</td><td><strong>12.6880***</strong><br>(1.2363)</td><td><strong>13.1307***</strong><br>(3.0739)</td><td><strong>12.7648***</strong><br>(0.8177)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>-0.0010<br>(0.0109)</td><td>-0.0090<br>(0.0105)</td><td>-0.0060<br>(0.0242)</td><td>-0.0121<br>(0.0250)</td><td>-0.7004<br>(2.2769)</td><td>6.1583<br>(9.4770)</td><td>-4.1224<br>(2.4789)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,578</td><td>17,578</td><td>6,056</td><td>11,522</td><td>17,578</td><td>6,056</td><td>11,522</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.37</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.04</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.04</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><caption>(c) Strict eligibility for the whole period</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.1141***</strong><br>(0.0149)</td><td><strong>-0.0173***</strong><br>(0.0060)</td><td><strong>-0.0701***</strong><br>(0.0176)</td><td>-0.0038<br>(0.0124)</td><td><strong>-4.9885***</strong><br>(1.0038)</td><td><strong>-14.4315***</strong><br>(3.8624)</td><td>-1.1765<br>(2.3349)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2985***</strong><br>(0.0153)</td><td><strong>0.1021***</strong><br>(0.0088)</td><td><strong>0.1635***</strong><br>(0.0226)</td><td><strong>0.0905***</strong><br>(0.0067)</td><td><strong>17.2995***</strong><br>(0.8487)</td><td><strong>24.6253***</strong><br>(3.2520)</td><td><strong>15.1914***</strong><br>(0.8600)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td><strong>0.0290***</strong><br>(0.0067)</td><td>-0.0180<br>(0.0193)</td><td><strong>0.0209*</strong><br>(0.0111)</td><td>-0.0295<br>(0.0255)</td><td>0.8299<br>(1.3554)</td><td>9.1382<br>(6.1647)</td><td>-2.5059<br>(2.7327)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>19,832</td><td>19,832</td><td>6,827</td><td>13,005</td><td>19,832</td><td>6,827</td><td>13,005</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.41</td><td>0.09</td><td>0.12</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.06</td></tr></tbody></table>
(d) Complete follow-up

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.0847***</strong><br>(0.0077)</td><td><strong>-0.0270***</strong><br>(0.0052)</td><td><strong>-0.0489***</strong><br>(0.0131)</td><td><strong>-0.0166*</strong><br>(0.0094)</td><td><strong>-5.4697***</strong><br>(0.7265)</td><td><strong>-9.2488***</strong><br>(2.8774)</td><td><strong>-3.3859*</strong><br>(1.7008)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2245***</strong><br>(0.0098)</td><td><strong>0.0865***</strong><br>(0.0075)</td><td><strong>0.0896***</strong><br>(0.0142)</td><td><strong>0.0896***</strong><br>(0.0079)</td><td><strong>13.1024***</strong><br>(0.8978)</td><td><strong>13.1455***</strong><br>(2.2164)</td><td><strong>13.4596***</strong><br>(1.0713)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>0.0017<br>(0.0134)</td><td>-0.0245<br>(0.0160)</td><td>-0.0128<br>(0.0179)</td><td>-0.0319<br>(0.0203)</td><td>-3.2223<br>(2.0978)</td><td>-2.2856<br>(4.3669)</td><td>-3.6185<br>(2.1647)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>17,869</td><td>17,869</td><td>5,910</td><td>11,959</td><td>17,869</td><td>5,910</td><td>11,959</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.38</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.06</td></tr></tbody></table>

(e) Incomplete follow-up

<table><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>After*Eligible</td><td><strong>-0.1038***</strong><br>(0.0067)</td><td><strong>-0.0247***</strong><br>(0.0064)</td><td><strong>-0.0459**</strong><br>(0.0172)</td><td>-0.0112<br>(0.0088)</td><td><strong>-5.0898***</strong><br>(0.7647)</td><td><strong>-11.4152***</strong><br>(3.1024)</td><td>-1.7232<br>(1.7135)</td></tr><tr><td>Eligible</td><td><strong>0.2436***</strong><br>(0.0052)</td><td><strong>0.0975***</strong><br>(0.0112)</td><td><strong>0.0932***</strong><br>(0.0190)</td><td><strong>0.1032***</strong><br>(0.0080)</td><td><strong>14.0474***</strong><br>(0.8438)</td><td><strong>14.7374***</strong><br>(2.0330)</td><td><strong>13.8799***</strong><br>(0.7310)</td></tr><tr><td>After</td><td>0.0153<br>(0.0095)</td><td>0.0065<br>(0.0063)</td><td><strong>0.0264*</strong><br>(0.0137)</td><td>-0.0049<br>(0.0117)</td><td>0.2477<br>(1.6908)</td><td>6.4524<br>(5.5488)</td><td><strong>-2.8325**</strong><br>(1.1812)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls, time and<br>regional dummies</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>39,450</td><td>39,450</td><td>14,033</td><td>25,417</td><td>25,795</td><td>8,529</td><td>17,266</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.06</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Matched Difference-in-difference estimates using the survey expansion weights adjusted by kernel weights. For Panel (a), the analysis period is restricted to 2004-2013 instead of 2004-2015. For Panel (b), we only keep households with full income reporting over the observation period. For Panel (c), only eligible and non-eligible households over the entire observation period are kept, instead of the first year. For Panel (d), the sample only includes households with a complete follow-up (i.e. four interviews), instead of three or more. For Panel (e), the sample also includes households with only two interviews, instead of three or more. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of per capita income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. After corresponds to the years after the AUH implementation (2010-2015). Control variables include time and region fixed effects, the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education, and if a member has not declared one income source. Clustered standard errors at the large urban area level (in parentheses). *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
<table><caption>Table SD6: Robustness results – ITT effects using alternative estimators</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><em>Estimated ITT</em></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>DRIMP</td><td><strong>-0.0886***</strong><br>(0.0140)</td><td><strong>-0.0454***</strong><br>(0.0140)</td><td><strong>-0.0590*</strong><br>(0.0309)</td><td>-0.03387<br>(0.0347)</td><td><strong>-8.3079***</strong><br>(2.2050)</td><td><strong>-14.2676***</strong><br>(5.4820)</td><td>-3.5737<br>(3.5184)</td></tr><tr><td>DRIPW</td><td><strong>-0.08383***</strong><br>(0.0115)</td><td><strong>-0.0415***</strong><br>(0.0120)</td><td><strong>-0.0513*</strong><br>(0.0287)</td><td><strong>-0.0349*</strong><br>(0.0192)</td><td><strong>-7.5564***</strong><br>(1.9234)</td><td><strong>-12.3427**</strong><br>(6.1907)</td><td>-4.0352<br>(2.4428)</td></tr><tr><td>STDIPW</td><td><strong>-0.0904***</strong><br>(0.0131)</td><td><strong>-0.0382***</strong><br>(0.0137)</td><td>-0.0531<br>(0.0321)</td><td>-0.0297<br>(0.0268)</td><td><strong>-7.4588***</strong><br>(2.1868)</td><td><strong>-16.1691***</strong><br>(4.8369)</td><td>-2.4872<br>(3.0271)</td></tr><tr><td>Controls</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>25,808</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The reported coefficients represent the dynamic ITT effects relative to the reference period (-1), corresponding to the difference in outcomes between eligible and non-eligible households. Calculations were performed using the CSDID Stata package (Rios-Avila et al., 2021). Year 0 corresponds to the AUH introduction. (a) DRIMP = Improved Doubly Robust DiD estimator based on inverse probability of tilting and weighted least squares from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). (b) DRIPW = Doubly Robust DiD estimator based on stabilized inverse probability weighting and ordinary least squares from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). (c) STDIPW = Inverse probability weighting DiD estimator with stabilized weights. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of per capita income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. Control variables include the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education and if a member has not declared one income source. Survey expansion weights applied. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the large urban area level. They are computed using the wild bootstrap procedure with 5,000 replications with uniform confidence intervals. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
<table><caption>Table SD7: Robustness results – Dynamic ITT effects using alternative estimators</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variables</th><th>(1)<br>PT</th><th>(2)<br>CV</th><th>(3)<br>CV<sup>D</sup></th><th>(4)<br>CV<sup>U</sup></th><th>(5)<br>SD-APC</th><th>(6)<br>SD-APC<sup>D</sup></th><th>(7)<br>SD-APC<sup>U</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="8"><strong>(a) DRIMP</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Pre-average</td><td>-0.0096<br>(0.0159)</td><td>-0.0146<br>(0.0154)</td><td>0.0048<br>(0.0329)</td><td>-0.0239<br>(0.0462)</td><td>-1.6203<br>(1.9560)</td><td>-3.8642<br>(6.2804)</td><td>-0.1419<br>(4.7016)</td></tr><tr><td>-5</td><td>-0.0365<br>(0.0266)</td><td>-0.0087<br>(0.0190)</td><td>0.0760<br>(0.0448)</td><td>-0.0400<br>(0.0423)</td><td>2.8606<br>(3.8670)</td><td>8.0491<br>(12.2187)</td><td>1.7618<br>(3.1718)</td></tr><tr><td>-4</td><td>0.0166<br>(0.0167)</td><td>-0.0159<br>(0.0205)</td><td>0.0288<br>(0.0410)</td><td>-0.0234<br>(0.0503)</td><td>-2.6230<br>(3.3826)</td><td>-4.2121<br>(5.4979)</td><td>-0.4491<br>(6.1449)</td></tr><tr><td>-3</td><td>-0.0014<br>(0.0182)</td><td>-0.0061<br>(0.0134)</td><td><strong>-0.0552*</strong><br>(0.0249)</td><td>0.0020<br>(0.0316)</td><td>-1.5043<br>(2.5820)</td><td><strong>-14.3085**</strong><br>(5.0990)</td><td>2.9720<br>(4.1069)</td></tr><tr><td>-2</td><td>-0.0172<br>(0.0206)</td><td>-0.0278<br>(0.0200)</td><td>-0.0302<br>(0.0341)</td><td>-0.0342<br>(0.0523)</td><td>-5.2146<br>(2.8575)</td><td>-4.9855<br>(6.2156)</td><td>-4.8522<br>(8.0246)</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td><strong>-0.0504**</strong><br>(0.0205)</td><td>-0.0182<br>(0.0149)</td><td>-0.0094<br>(0.0323)</td><td>-0.0184<br>(0.0370)</td><td>-2.8566<br>(2.1516)</td><td>-3.5152<br>(6.8981)</td><td>-0.8685<br>(4.4835)</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td><strong>-0.0827***</strong><br>(0.0136)</td><td><strong>-0.0653***</strong><br>(0.0170)</td><td>-0.0942<br>(0.0444)</td><td>-0.0476<br>(0.0283)</td><td><strong>-11.3908***</strong><br>(3.0272)</td><td><strong>-20.4338**</strong><br>(8.0677)</td><td>-5.1225<br>(2.6539)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td><strong>-0.1122***</strong><br>(0.0140)</td><td><strong>-0.0565***</strong><br>(0.0153)</td><td><strong>-0.0706**</strong><br>(0.0281)</td><td>-0.0496<br>(0.0454)</td><td><strong>-12.0150***</strong><br>(2.4953)</td><td><strong>-18.8523***</strong><br>(5.7605)</td><td>-8.0638<br>(5.5526)</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td><strong>-0.1268***</strong><br>(0.0204)</td><td><strong>-0.0539**</strong><br>(0.0197)</td><td><strong>-0.0710**</strong><br>(0.0261)</td><td>-0.0328<br>(0.0254)</td><td>-5.8768<br>(2.9596)</td><td><strong>-12.8013***</strong><br>(4.3141)</td><td>1.3184<br>(3.1169)</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td><strong>-0.0785***</strong><br>(0.0181)</td><td>-0.0323<br>(0.0149)</td><td>-0.0445<br>(0.0353)</td><td>-0.0171<br>(0.0311)</td><td><strong>-9.1975*</strong><br>(3.6551)</td><td>-15.0417<br>(6.9178)</td><td>-4.0703<br>(4.6594)</td></tr><tr><td>Post-average</td><td><strong>-0.0901***</strong><br>(0.0143)</td><td><strong>-0.0452***</strong><br>(0.0141)</td><td>-0.0579<br>(0.0306)</td><td>-0.0331<br>(0.0338)</td><td><strong>-8.2673***</strong><br>(2.2427)</td><td><strong>-14.1289**</strong><br>(5.4371)</td><td>-3.3613<br>(3.3470)</td></tr><tr><td>Pre-trend χ<sup>2</sup>(4) value</td><td>3.59</td><td>2.95</td><td>9.04</td><td>1.54</td><td>4.82</td><td>9.54</td><td>1.20</td></tr><tr><td>P-value</td><td>0.4649</td><td>0.5665</td><td>0.0600</td><td>0.8192</td><td>0.3065</td><td>0.0490</td><td>0.8776</td></tr><tr><td>Observation</td><td>25,808</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td></tr><tr><td colspan="8"><strong>(b) DRIPW</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Pre-average</td><td>0.0403<br>(0.0691)</td><td>0.0037<br>(0.0372)</td><td>0.0147<br>(0.0301)</td><td>-0.0389<br>(0.0450)</td><td>2.7510<br>(7.0405)</td><td>-1.2339<br>(5.4811)</td><td>-1.4874<br>(6.0568)</td></tr><tr><td>-5</td><td>-0.0325<br>(0.0253)</td><td>-0.0163<br>(0.0225)</td><td>0.0748<br>(0.0503)</td><td>-0.0526<br>(0.0449)</td><td>2.3630<br>(3.1083)</td><td>7.8072<br>(9.7925)</td><td>0.7969<br>(4.2758)</td></tr><tr><td>-4</td><td>0.0131<br>(0.0169)</td><td>-0.0224<br>(0.0235)</td><td>0.0475<br>(0.0385)</td><td>-0.0445<br>(0.0547)</td><td>-3.0804<br>(3.5366)</td><td>0.6671<br>(6.3698)</td><td>-2.5954<br>(8.5356)</td></tr><tr><td>-3</td><td>0.2003<br>(0.2684)</td><td>0.0831<br>(0.1376)</td><td>-0.0518<br>(0.0246)</td><td>-0.0143<br>(0.0365)</td><td>16.6565<br>(26.5853)</td><td>-11.0025<br>(5.3922)</td><td>1.5899<br>(6.7612)</td></tr><tr><td>-2</td><td>-0.0198<br>(0.0201)</td><td>-0.0295<br>(0.0191)</td><td>-0.0118<br>(0.0351)</td><td>-0.0441<br>(0.0430)</td><td>-4.9352<br>(2.4077)</td><td>-2.4073<br>(7.4489)</td><td>-5.7407<br>(6.8841)</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td><strong>-0.0479*</strong><br>(0.0198)</td><td>-0.0174<br>(0.0159)</td><td>0.0016<br>(0.0277)</td><td>-0.0285<br>(0.0365)</td><td>-2.3281<br>(2.0402)</td><td>-1.4001<br>(7.9822)</td><td>-1.6428<br>(3.2600)</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td><strong>-0.0817***</strong><br>(0.0129)</td><td><strong>-0.0624***</strong><br>(0.0129)</td><td>-0.0864<br>(0.0422)</td><td><strong>-0.0541***</strong><br>(0.0173)</td><td><strong>-10.6982***</strong><br>(2.6874)</td><td><strong>-18.7785*</strong><br>(8.0460)</td><td><strong>-5.8913***</strong><br>(1.7508)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td><strong>-0.1028***</strong><br>(0.0166)</td><td><strong>-0.0494***</strong><br>(0.0139)</td><td>-0.0629<br>(0.0307)</td><td>-0.0362<br>(0.0194)</td><td><strong>-11.3590***</strong><br>(2.8516)</td><td><strong>-17.0392*</strong><br>(7.0041)</td><td>-8.1060<br>(5.6460)</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td><strong>-0.1180***</strong><br>(0.0161)</td><td><strong>-0.0469**</strong><br>(0.0165)</td><td><strong>-0.0627*</strong><br>(0.0267)</td><td>-0.0338<br>(0.0177)</td><td>-4.0347<br>(2.8511)</td><td>-10.1523<br>(4.6351)</td><td>0.9840<br>(3.4023)</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td><strong>-0.0760***</strong><br>(0.0170)</td><td><strong>-0.0302*</strong><br>(0.0120)</td><td>-0.0416<br>(0.0320)</td><td>-0.0173<br>(0.0229)</td><td><strong>-9.0541**</strong><br>(3.1278)</td><td>-13.6396<br>(7.4052)</td><td>-4.3578<br>(4.2198)</td></tr><tr><td>Post-average</td><td><strong>-0.0853***</strong><br>(0.0117)</td><td><strong>-0.0413***</strong><br>(0.0121)</td><td>-0.0504<br>(0.0284)</td><td><strong>-0.0340*</strong><br>(0.0190)</td><td><strong>-7.4948***</strong><br>(1.9460)</td><td>-12.2019<br>(6.1101)</td><td>-3.8028<br>(2.4061)</td></tr><tr><td>Pre-trend χ<sup>2</sup>(4) value</td><td>3.78</td><td>4.16</td><td>8.29</td><td>3.24</td><td>5.93</td><td>4.91</td><td>0.88</td></tr><tr><td>P-value</td><td>0.4364</td><td>0.3842</td><td>0.0814</td><td>0.5190</td><td>0.2044</td><td>0.2962</td><td>0.9277</td></tr><tr><td>Observation</td><td>25,808</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th colspan="8" style="text-align: left;">(c) STDIPW</th></tr><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Pre-average</td><td>-0.0137<br>(0.0156)</td><td>-0.0103<br>(0.0155)</td><td>-0.0141<br>(0.0307)</td><td>-0.0237<br>(0.0407)</td><td>-1.8982<br>(2.0588)</td><td>-8.0092<br>(5.2834)</td><td>-0.9187<br>(4.0484)</td></tr><tr><td>-5</td><td>-0.0334<br>(0.0216)</td><td>-0.0094<br>(0.0188)</td><td>0.0505<br>(0.0343)</td><td>-0.0313<br>(0.0333)</td><td>2.0446<br>(3.2057)</td><td>2.6805<br>(7.6060)</td><td>1.7579<br>(2.4379)</td></tr><tr><td>-4</td><td>0.0226<br>(0.0235)</td><td>-0.0263<br>(0.0211)</td><td>-0.0006<br>(0.0447)</td><td>-0.0295<br>(0.0443)</td><td>-4.2559<br>(3.1932)</td><td>-9.5138<br>(4.9343)</td><td>-1.5984<br>(5.0714)</td></tr><tr><td>-3</td><td>-0.0228<br>(0.0287)</td><td>0.0271<br>(0.0392)</td><td><strong>-0.0708**</strong><br>(0.0289)</td><td>0.0087<br>(0.0314)</td><td>0.4660<br>(4.6955)</td><td><strong>-17.9108**</strong><br>(6.2187)</td><td>2.0275<br>(4.2687)</td></tr><tr><td>-2</td><td>-0.0213<br>(0.0199)</td><td>-0.0326<br>(0.0194)</td><td>-0.0355<br>(0.0378)</td><td>-0.0427<br>(0.0526)</td><td>-5.8476<br>(2.7300)</td><td>-7.2925<br>(7.1986)</td><td>-5.8619<br>(8.1077)</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td><strong>-0.0474***</strong><br>(0.0137)</td><td>-0.0124<br>(0.0158)</td><td>-0.0084<br>(0.0440)</td><td>-0.0123<br>(0.0358)</td><td>-2.2019<br>(2.0098)</td><td>-5.5144<br>(7.0675)</td><td>0.2427<br>(3.9614)</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td><strong>-0.0812***</strong><br>(0.0172)</td><td><strong>-0.0566***</strong><br>(0.0174)</td><td>-0.0893<br>(0.0426)</td><td>-0.0413<br>(0.0213)</td><td><strong>-10.4135***</strong><br>(2.8696)</td><td><strong>-22.6159***</strong><br>(7.2763)</td><td>-3.8697<br>(1.9103)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td><strong>-0.1204***</strong><br>(0.0152)</td><td><strong>-0.0412***</strong><br>(0.0139)</td><td>-0.0556<br>(0.0342)</td><td>-0.0344<br>(0.0302)</td><td><strong>-10.5643***</strong><br>(2.9290)</td><td><strong>-20.1210***</strong><br>(5.3823)</td><td>-6.4281<br>(6.2061)</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td><strong>-0.1244***</strong><br>(0.0176)</td><td><strong>-0.0532**</strong><br>(0.0192)</td><td><strong>-0.0740**</strong><br>(0.0267)</td><td>-0.0344<br>(0.0239)</td><td>-6.0429<br>(2.7536)</td><td><strong>-15.9898***</strong><br>(4.4373)</td><td>1.7224<br>(2.7934)</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td><strong>-0.0876***</strong><br>(0.0150)</td><td>-0.0293<br>(0.0133)</td><td>-0.0326<br>(0.0347)</td><td>-0.0281<br>(0.0274)</td><td><strong>-8.0104*</strong><br>(3.1647)</td><td><strong>-15.7955*</strong><br>(6.9462)</td><td>-3.3298<br>(3.3217)</td></tr><tr><td>Post-average</td><td><strong>-0.0922***</strong><br>(0.0132)</td><td><strong>-0.0385**</strong><br>(0.0139)</td><td>-0.0520<br>(0.0318)</td><td>-0.0301<br>(0.0265)</td><td><strong>-7.4466***</strong><br>(2.2231)</td><td><strong>-16.0073***</strong><br>(4.7838)</td><td>-2.3325<br>(2.9048)</td></tr><tr><td>Pre-trend χ²(4) value</td><td>5.10</td><td>5.11</td><td>9.08</td><td>2.07</td><td>6.78</td><td>13.16</td><td>1.37</td></tr><tr><td>P-value</td><td>0.2770</td><td>0.2763</td><td>0.0592</td><td>0.7238</td><td>0.1479</td><td>0.0105</td><td>0.8498</td></tr><tr><td>Observation</td><td>25,808</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td><td>25,808</td><td>8,532</td><td>17,276</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The reported coefficients represent the dynamic ITT effects relative to the reference period (-1), corresponding to the difference in outcomes between eligible and non-eligible households. Calculations were performed using the CSDID Stata package (Rios-Avila et al., 2021). Year 0 corresponds to the AUH introduction. (a) DRIMP = Improved Doubly Robust DiD estimator based on inverse probability of tilting and weighted least squares from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). (b) DRIPW = Doubly Robust DiD estimator based on stabilized inverse probability weighting and ordinary least squares from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). (c) STDIPW = Inverse probability weighting DiD estimator with stabilized weights. Column (1) measures the effect of the program on poverty transitions, i.e. the probability of a household falling below the poverty line ($5.5/day PPP 2011) during its observation period. Column (2) measures the effect on the coefficient of variation of per capita income, and Column (5) on the standard deviation of arc percentage change. Columns (3) and (6) restrict the sample to households with the same negative change in income between the first and second year of observations, while Columns (4) and (7) for the opposite case. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. Control variables include the number of minor and major children (and their squares), head age dummies and gender, if the head is single, household size, parents' highest level of education and if a member has not declared one income source. Survey expansion weights applied. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the large urban area level. They are computed using the wild bootstrap procedure with 5,000 replications with uniform confidence intervals. The reported χ² statistic corresponds to a Wald-type joint test of the null hypothesis that all pre-treatment coefficients are equal to zero. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Figure SD2: Event study results using the DRIMP estimator

2.a) Total sample

PT

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

CV

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>
SD-APC

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

2.b) Sub-sample: downward trend in income

CV

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>
SD-APC

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

2.c) Sub-sample: upward trend in income

CV

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>
SD-APC

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Estimates from the Improved Doubly Robust DD estimator based on inverse probability of tilting and weighted least squares from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020). The reported coefficients represent the dynamic ITT effects relative to the reference period (-1), corresponding to the difference in outcomes between eligible and non-eligible households. Calculations were performed using the CSDID Stata package (Rios-Avila et al., 2021). Year 0 corresponds to the AUH introduction. Standard errors are clustered at the large urban area level. They are computed using the wild bootstrap procedure with 5,000 replications. Both Uniform Confidence Intervals and Pointwise Confidence Intervals are shown at 95%. The poverty trends (PT) indicator measures the time spent in poverty by a household during its observation period i.e., income per capita below $5.5/day (PPP 2011). The CV is the coefficient of variation of household income. The SD-APC is the standard deviation of arc percentage change of household income. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.
E) Matching quality

<table><caption>Table SE1: Matching quality – Standardised differences</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Adjustement<br>Matching variables</th><th colspan="3">(1)<br>Expansion weights × kernel weights</th><th colspan="3">(2)<br>Kernel weights</th></tr><tr><th>Mean<br>eligible</th><th>Mean non-<br>eligible</th><th>Standardised<br>bias (%)</th><th>Mean<br>eligible</th><th>Mean non-<br>eligible</th><th>Standardised<br>bias (%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Woman head of hh</td><td>0.4001</td><td>0.3538</td><td><strong>-5.1</strong></td><td>0.4001</td><td>0.3983</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td>Head of hh below 30</td><td>0.1763</td><td>0.1555</td><td><strong>5.7</strong></td><td>0.1763</td><td>0.1498</td><td><strong>7.3</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Have a child under 5</td><td>0.5671</td><td>0.5568</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.5671</td><td>0.5527</td><td>2.9</td></tr><tr><td>Trimestre 2</td><td>0.2689</td><td>0.2637</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.2689</td><td>0.2711</td><td>-0.5</td></tr><tr><td>Trimestre 1</td><td>0.2636</td><td>0.2683</td><td>-1.1</td><td>0.2636</td><td>0.2595</td><td>0.9</td></tr><tr><td>Head of hh over 60</td><td>0.1060</td><td>0.1092</td><td>-1.0</td><td>0.1060</td><td>0.1238</td><td><strong>-5.7</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Nb of minor children</td><td>2.5827</td><td>2.5735</td><td>0.6</td><td>2.5827</td><td>2.5668</td><td>1.1</td></tr><tr><td>Trimestre 3</td><td>0.1982</td><td>0.2026</td><td>-1.1</td><td>0.1982</td><td>0.2040</td><td>-1.4</td></tr><tr><td>Large household</td><td>0.3503</td><td>0.3504</td><td>-0.0</td><td>0.3503</td><td>0.3636</td><td>-2.8</td></tr><tr><td>Highest educ. Sec.</td><td>0.4443</td><td>0.4696</td><td><strong>-5.1</strong></td><td>0.4443</td><td>0.4500</td><td>-1.1</td></tr><tr><td>Highest educ. Univ.</td><td>0.0932</td><td>0.0900</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.0932</td><td>0.9626</td><td>-0.9</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>0.3378</td><td>0.3606</td><td>-4.7</td><td>0.3378</td><td>0.3432</td><td>-1.1</td></tr></tbody><tfoot><tr><td><strong>Mean Bias (%)</strong></td><td></td><td>2.8</td><td></td><td></td><td>2.2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td><strong>Bias reduction (%)</strong></td><td></td><td>-76.7</td><td></td><td></td><td>-81.7</td><td></td></tr></tfoot></table>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: Column (1) shows the matching results for the expansion weights from the EPH survey adjusted by kernel weights, while Column (2) only uses the kernel weights. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview. Values in bold indicate standardised bias greater than 5%.
<figure><img src="image_30.png" /><figcaption>Figure SE1: Matching quality – Standardized differences</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The figure shows the comparison between the unmatched and the matched sample using the expansion weights from the EPH survey adjusted by kernel weights. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.
<figure><img src="image_31.png" /><figcaption>Figure SE2: Matching quality – Propensity scores</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author’s calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The figure shows the propensity scores between the eligible and non-eligible households for the unmatched (a) and the matched (b) sample using the expansion weights from the EPH survey adjusted by kernel weights. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.
<figure><img src="image_32.png" /><figcaption>Figure SE3: Matching quality – Distribution propensity scores</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The figure shows the distribution of the propensity score between the eligible and non-eligible households for the unmatched (a) and the matched (b) sample using the expansion weights from the EPH survey adjusted by kernel weights. The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.
<figure><img src="image_33.png" /><figcaption>Figure SE4: Matching quality –Propensity scores across groups</figcaption></figure>

Source: Author's calculation based on the EPH microdata, 2004-2015.

Note: The figure shows the distribution of the propensity score between eligible (treated) households in the post-AUH period and the three groups of the kernel matching (control before and after the AUH, and the treated before the AUH). The sample comprises households with at least one minor child, and belonging to the first three deciles of the national per capita income distribution in the first year of observation. A household is eligible if the parents work in the informal sector, are domestic employees, are inactive, unemployed, or retired without health coverage, during their first year of interview.