implies an economic specialization, mainly in the local services sector, which can destabilize the local economy if there is a disruption of the tourist, retiree or commuter flux (Davezies, 2009; Spilanis, 2009). We have therefore studied alternative territorial development with agriculture. It has been recognized that agriculture is a lever of local sustainable development which can facilitate the reinjection of productive activities on the coast (Ragkos and Theodoridis, 2016; Blandford, 2011; Benoit and Comeau, 2005), give local employment (Nicholls et al., 2020), provide ecosystem services (Ricart et al., 2019), and also improve local food security (Filippini et al., 2018; Zezza and Tasciotti, 2010). Moreover, agriculture has been identified as one of the key sector for preserving and restoring European natural capital on the recently released documents for a European Green deal and the Biodiversity strategy for 2030. The European strategy underline the importance of agricultural sustainable practice for improving environmental and climate performance and the need to support rural development to help rural areas to harness opportunities in the circular and bio-economy through “farm to fork” initiatives (EC, 2019; EC, 2020). Thus, there is a growing interest in the remaining places where agriculture is possible, and the type of agricultural projects that could be developed in coastline areas under pressure.

## 1.2. Vacant lands inventory and valorization

In the literature, three different definitions of vacant lands can be found. They can be unbuilt constructible lands with potential for housing construction and urban densification (Saiz, 2010). Secondly, they can also be defined as unbuilt lands (constructible or not) currently unused or abandoned (e.g. brownfields, transportation-related sites), located in urban areas (mainly in the form of small residual plots) with a low value on the property markets (Gedal and Ellen, 2018). Since the 2000s, studies in this field have shown how cities deal with vacant lands through different urban renewal projects (Kim et al., 2018; Németh and Langhorst, 2014), including transforming vacant lands into productive ones (e.g. Sanches and Mesquita Pellegrino, 2016; Kim et al., 2015). This means a valorization of vacant lands in terms of redevelopment (e.g. for urban gardening or urban agriculture) to set up urban renewal and thus with impacts expected on the limitation of urban sprawl, and also to avoid city decline (Goldstein et al., 2001). Thirdly, studies focusing on agricultural land suitability analysis usually undertake a vacant lands inventory in order to assess the possible development of urban farming (Mcdougall et al., 2020; McClintock et al., 2013; Erickson et al., 2013). For the majority of them, the starting point is however the analysis of soil quality data (rather than land-use data) for specific crops, and the lands are located within agricultural zones (e.g. Seyedmohammadi et al., 2019 - study on barley cultivation).

In this paper, we lie at the intersection of the three definitions and we propose then a specific one. With the term “vacant lands”, we mean all the lands not currently occupied by urbanization and which do not need specific treatment to be developed, such as demolition or decontamination. They need to be exploitable according to geographical (e.g. land-use), physical (e.g. excluding steep slopes), and some regulatory criteria (e.g. excluding military areas). They thus include uncultivated lands, natural and forest areas, and urban wastelands. We considered vacant lands in the broad sense of available lands, without taking into account temporary constraints of non-availability (e.g. local planning documents, land ownership etc.). The field of study developed at a very local scale in an urban context was thus enlarged to go beyond the urban areas, and the concept of vacant lands was applied to an extended territory. In this context and in order to improve sustainable planning and development of the MedCoast, we attempted to answer the following main research questions: what are the possibilities for vacant land valorization other than by residential use, and which territorial scenarios of agricultural development could be explored, depending on the agricultural opportunities of existing vacant lands?

considered the term agricultural opportunities as the type and level of agricultural production possibly suitable for vacant lands, according to Erickson et al. (2013). These questions were investigated in two coastal areas in southern France, both characterized by a rising demographic pressure, a strong residential- and tourism-based economy, and an environmental heritage.

Land use scenarios have been widely applied to help decision makers in anticipating the future. In methodological terms, land use transformation models have mainly been employed for scenario simulations, using past land use transitions to study the location and/or the nature of future changes (Vannier et al., 2019; Sinha and Griffith, 2019; Lee et al., 2018; Loubier et al., 2017; Houet et al., 2016; Gutiérrez Angonese and Grau, 2014). Other scenarios have been built from a geostatistical approach which gives an important place to landscape spatial patterns (e.g. García-Ayllón, 2018a, 2018b). In this field, some pro-agricultural scenarios have been developed (e.g. Rega et al., 2019; Rousevell et al., 2006; Iverson Nassauer and Corry, 2004; Abrantes et al., 2017) to study alternatives to urban and periurban dynamic continuation. Estimations of the urban agricultural potential of cities to provide a local food supply have also been developed (Mcdougall et al., 2020; McClintock et al., 2013), deepening existing works on the agricultural potential of vacant lands (Sanches and Mesquita Pellegrino, 2016; Erickson et al., 2013). In line with these previous works, our study assessed vacant lands from a GIS-based inventory and a spatial and expert analysis of their suitability for agricultural production. In addition, spatialized normative scenarios for sustainable agriculture were built, and include a co-constructive approach with stakeholders and researchers. They studied both which agricultural system types could arise in the future and what spatial implementation of the scenario could be possible. Territorial scenarios were quantified and mapped, and their impacts were measured through socio-economic indexes.

## 2. Study areas

The two areas studied are located in the South of France, in the Var department.

The first is the inter-municipality of Toulon Provence Méditerranée (hereafter TPM). This territory includes twelve municipalities and had about 431 000 inhabitants in 2015 (INSEE). It is the third largest metropolitan area of the region. TPM has had a huge increase in its urban areas, which doubled in the 40 years between 1970 and 2010 (Syndicat Mixte Provence Méditerranée, 2009). Today, much of the territory is covered by urban areas (40 % in 2011), and the urban sprawl - although slowing down - is still ongoing, at a rate of +3.8 % (512.6 ha) between 2003 and 2011 (Table 1). Most of this urban sprawl is at the expense of agricultural areas (70 %, or 359 ha, of new artificialized spaces in 2011 were agricultural until between 2003 and 2011), and as a result, agricultural land is continually shrinking and becoming more fragmented.

<caption>**Table 1**</caption>

Main characteristics of the two case study areas: Toulon Provence Metropole (TPM) and Golfe de Saint Tropez (GST). The years of the land use data are not the same for our two case studies. The TPM territory has land use data for the years 2003 to 2011, while for the GST intermunicipality territory the data concerns the years 2003 to 2014. To be able to compare the evolutions of the two territories, we used average annual growth rates.

<table><thead><tr><td>Indicators</td><td>TPM</td><td>GST</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Area of the zones studied</td><td>37 224 ha</td><td>43 395 ha</td></tr><tr><td>Urban areas in 2011/2014</td><td>40 %</td><td>17 %</td></tr><tr><td>Agricultural areas 2011/2014</td><td>16.7%</td><td>10 %</td></tr><tr><td>New urban areas between 2003 and 2011/2014</td><td>+ 3.8 %</td><td>+ 11.2 %</td></tr><tr><td>Average annual growth rate of urban areas</td><td>+ 0.47 %</td><td>+ 0.97 %</td></tr><tr><td>Average annual area of new urbanization</td><td>64 ha</td><td>67.5 ha</td></tr><tr><td>New urban areas which were agricultural in 2003</td><td>70 %</td><td>26 %</td></tr></tbody></table>
<figure><img src="image_34.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 1. Locations of the two case studies.</figcaption></figure>

Nevertheless, despite the size of its urban areas and their growth, TPM is attractive to tourists with 84 500 additional people in 2011 (Syndicat Mixte Provence Méditerranée, 2009). At present, some areas are protected (former saline zones, wetlands, classified woodlands) and the coastline is attractive, even if a part is reserved for military activities. Therefore, this case study is an example of a metropolitan littoral territory, which must strike a balance between hosting or housing its tourists and the permanent population, and preserving its natural and agricultural areas.

The second area is the inter-municipality called “Golfe de Saint-Tropez”, the Saint-Tropez Gulf. Located to the east of TPM, this territory also includes twelve municipalities but had only 57,600 inhabitants in 2015 (INSEE). Nevertheless, even if the urban areas represent only 17 % of the territory, the urban sprawl development has been greater than that of TPM, with an average annual growth rate of +0.97 % (+0.47 % compared to TPM). Between 2003 and 2014, 743 ha of new urban areas appeared. This urban growth could be explained in part by the high attractiveness of this territory for tourists. In the peak season, the population of the inter-municipality is multiplied by four (Communauté de communes du Golfe de Saint Tropez, 2019). The Gulf of Saint-Tropez is a highly popular destination, with its 70 km of coastline, its large forested areas (the Maures massif) and its typical local agriculture. Natural areas make up more than 70 % of the territory, including agricultural areas which are dominated by vineyards (62 %). Nevertheless, these areas are being increasingly gained by urbanization. Our case studies are therefore good examples of a touristic littoral territory with a high residential development rate, which must be controlled as there is a significant risk of landscape degradation. Both case study areas have suffered over recent decades from an increasing land consumption due to the progressive shift of the local economy toward the tourism and residential accommodation sectors.

The inter-municipality level was chosen because it is currently the most relevant in terms of planning, linking municipal and regional scales of governance, and it is where the agricultural orientations are defined. Moreover, it is an intermediate level between the micro scale of the municipality and the bigger department scale. The two case study areas were also chosen because of the residual presence of productive agriculture. Table 1 shows the main land use characteristics of the areas studied, and Fig. 1 shows their location.

### 3. Material and methods

In this work, a GIS-based inventory of vacant lands was carried out at parcel scale over a vast territory. Classification tools based on a scoring analysis and on a multivariate statistical analysis (AHC) were then applied, in order to prioritize the interest of lands for an agricultural valorization according to a set of geographical, morphological, and regulatory criteria, which defined agricultural opportunities. This methodological part is in line with the work of Sanches and Mesquita Pellegrino (2016), and Erickson et al. (2013). Looking ahead, prospective scenarios were then built (Pérez-Soba and Maas, 2015; Börjeson et al., 2006) to show decision makers potential pathways for alternatives to residential use for future territorial developments. Considering the high urbanization threat to agricultural lands, confirmed by trend scenarios (e.g. Rounsevell et al., 2006), normative scenarios concerning sustainable planning projects were favoured. They are built in a combined quantitative and qualitative approach. A spatial analysis method operationalized the hypothesis of agricultural expansion on the vacant lands of the two case studies. An expert approach was employed to define future agricultural systems. The method was aligned with spatial prospective approaches (Gourmelon et al., 2012; Casanova and Helle, 2012) and integrate a concerted process between researchers, local stakeholders, and students (Vannier et al., 2019; Abrantes et al., 2017; Maestripieri et al., 2017; Iverson Nassauer and Corry, 2004; Loubier et al., 2017). Such an approach fosters creativity within the limits of possible new planning strategies (e.g. depending on the suitability of vacant lands).

GIS queries based on a set of parcel scale geographical data were carried out first to inventory vacant lands (Fig. 2; Step1). The starting point was the identification of all the existing whole or part(s) of parcels potentially available in purely land use terms (corresponding to the non-urban areas). Then, all the possible factors excluding the use of these lands for agriculture were considered, such as morphological factors (e.g. slope) or regulatory aspects (e.g. environmentally protected areas, military areas). The existing regulatory measures in local planning documents were deliberately not taken into account, since the aim of the work was to provide alternatives to current planning, and also because the documents can be changed over time. For example, at the municipal scale planning is based on a document which can be
<figure><img src="image_35.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 2. The overall methodological workflow. Each step is detailed in the following sections.</figcaption></figure>

revised three years after its initial approval. At the inter-municipal scale, land use planning is based on a document revisable every six years. Through these GIS queries, we obtained an overall inventory of vacant lands.

The agricultural opportunities for the vacant lands were estimated next (Fig. 2; Step2). For this, we made two classifications: the first provides a scoring of vacant land parcels in order to evaluate their agricultural potential; the second, based on an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), clusters profiles of parcels in terms of their spatial characteristics. The results give indications as to the spectrum of possible future agricultural developments in the territories.

In order to explore these possibilities for the future, we used the results of the two classifications in a third step to build possible future territorial scenarios, fitting in sustainable agricultural development. The scenarios, one for each case study (Fig. 2; Step 3), are proposed as examples of the possible applications of this work for policy makers.

### 3.1. *Datasets*

#### 3.1.1. Cadaster dataset

The cadaster, or land registry, dataset gives an annual overview of property ownership. This data is used by the French government services for fiscal purposes. It therefore includes full and precise information concerning land ownership for unbuilt or built property (DGALN-AD3 - CEREMA Nord-Picardie, 2017). We particularly focused on the parcel map and on data concerning landowners and householders (e.g. number of owners, public or private status), land use, and building types (e.g. flat, house, industrial or commercial buildings).

The intersections of the data provide detailed geospatial information on urbanization processes (ownership changes, construction pace etc.).

#### 3.1.2. Land use and planning datasets

In addition to the cadaster dataset - the reference data for the study - other geographical datasets were included in the analysis to complete

the information about land use, topography, agricultural systems, and planning. Table 2 shows the complete dataset list.

### 3.2. *Inventory of vacant lands suitable for agricultural use*

As agriculture cannot be developed on all vacant lands, we analyzed vacant land parcel characteristics based on a set of exclusion constraints corresponding to major obstacles to agricultural valorization. Six main exclusion constraints were selected. Cultivated lands were included, to assess (and show to decision makers) the interest of maintaining them for agricultural use. Constraints were defined by the researchers and shared with experts from the regional and local public planning institutions specialized either in agricultural, rural, or urban land management, or in overall intermunicipality planning. The exclusion constraints identified were: (1) slope > 35 %, (2) inclusion in a military area, (3) inclusion in a protected environment area, (4) intersection with an ICPE (see Fig. 2), (5) intersection with built-up areas, streets, or cemeteries, and (6) parcel or parcel aggregation dimension < 200 m². Fig. 3 summarizes the exclusion factors. Once these exclusion constraints were defined, the spatial dataset was processed to remove the vacant land parcels where agriculture is not possible. An additional GIS analysis was done to remove residual errors, especially those related to the morphology of parcels. In particular, we aimed to eliminate plots with a very slender shape, unsuitable for agriculture, which in the majority of cases correspond to residual portions of private roads (public roads are not mapped in the cadaster plan). To do this, a compactness coefficient (first given by Gravelius and often used in hydrology studies) was applied, and calculated as follows: $K = 0.28 * (P/\sqrt{A})$, where P is the perimeter of the plot given in meters and A the surface area of the plot given in m². The closer the K value is to 1, the closer its shape is to a circle. The higher it is than 1, the longer and more slender its shape is. In accordance with empirical test validations (including comparisons with orthophotos), a threshold of 2.2 was applied to remove these linear plots.
<table><caption>**Table 2**
List of datasets used for vacant land identification and classification.</caption><thead><tr><th>Name of data</th><th>Source</th><th>Date</th><th>Metadata complement</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Digital Terrain Model</td><td>IGN</td><td>2008</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Land use of the PACA region</td><td>CRIGE PACA</td><td>2006<br>2014</td><td>Scale of interpretation 1:25 000 to 1:50 000</td></tr><tr><td>Land use</td><td>AUDAT Var</td><td>2011<sup>a</sup></td><td>Scale of interpretation 1:1 500 to 1:3 000</td></tr><tr><td>Land use in the area of the Gulf of St-Tropez</td><td>TTI Production via CRIGE PACA</td><td>2014</td><td>Scale of interpretation 1:1 500 to 1:3 000</td></tr><tr><td>Irrigable perimeters of the Canal of Provence Company</td><td>Canal of Provence Company via CRIGE PACA</td><td>2016</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Others irrigable perimeters</td><td>Base Hydra of the Regional Agricultural Chamber</td><td>2014</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Environmental zoning</td><td>Geoide PACA</td><td>2018</td><td>It contains the Decrees for the Protection of Biotopes, wetlands, Sensitive Natural Areas and some Conservatory of Natural Spaces estates.</td></tr><tr><td>Military areas</td><td>Open Street Map</td><td>2018</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Installations Classified for the Protection of the Environment (ICPE)</td><td>Geoide PACA</td><td>2018</td><td>Buildings with potentially negative environmental and/or human health risk or impact</td></tr><tr><td>Areas submitted to a clearance authorization</td><td>DDTM 83</td><td>2017</td><td>In these areas authorization must be requested before deforestation.</td></tr><tr><td>Roads</td><td>Open Street Map</td><td>2018</td><td>The roads were extracted from OSM and processed with the Grass tools (cleaning, reconnection).</td></tr><tr><td>Local markets</td><td>New layer</td><td>2018</td><td>The market locations were found on different web sites, and then compiled and put in a vector format.</td></tr><tr><td>Cooperatives</td><td>New layer</td><td>2018</td><td>The cooperative locations were found on the web site "coopdefrance", and then put in a vector format.</td></tr></tbody></table>

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.** Exclusion constraints for agricultural valorization of vacant lands.</figcaption></figure>

### 3.3. Scoring and classification of vacant lands for agricultural opportunities estimation

In order to prioritize vacant lands in terms of their opportunities for agricultural valorization, we considered a set of geographical, morphological, and regulatory criteria. When the criteria results are not significant, agriculture can still be developed but its potential is reduced (requiring, for example, parcel remodeling or adapting farming practices). As above, we used an expert-based method to define our nine criteria, which were assessed through GIS at parcel scale (Fig. 4).

Each criterion category concerning vacant land spatial distribution characteristics, land use, and parcel facilities for an agricultural activity, refers to a quantitative value or a qualitative modality, which was then converted into a score. In order to estimate the level of agricultural opportunities for a vacant land parcel, a value was assigned

for each criterion, which all had the same weight: values range from 1, the least suitable lands, to 3, the most suitable. For each parcel, the allocation of a quantitative value or a qualitative modality to a score value was respectively determined by the classes defined in the statistical distribution (i.e. classes of equal intervals) and by an expert decision.

Table 3 summarizes the list of criteria selected and their values. The values were then totaled for each parcel to obtain a global score for parcel agricultural opportunities. Results were next converted into a center-reduced standardization depending on the standard deviations, to highlight parcels with the highest potential (thus, values between the two case studies refer to different orders of magnitude, and are not directly comparable).

In parallel, using an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), parcels were clustered into different classes of agricultural

<footnote><sup>a</sup> Access to the 2014 version was denied to our research group because the dataset producer considered that the information contained in the dataset was too sensitive in policy terms.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_37.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 4. Spatial analysis methods for criteria calculation.</figcaption></figure>

<table><caption>**Table 3**

Scoring parameters and settings for the estimation of parcel agricultural opportunities.</caption><thead><tr><th>Criteria Score</th><th>1</th><th>2</th><th>3</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Current Land use</td><td>Urban area only</td><td>Natural area/wetlands</td><td>Agricultural area</td></tr><tr><td>Neighbourhood land use</td><td>Urban area only</td><td>Natural area/wetlands but no agriculture</td><td>Agricultural area</td></tr><tr><td>Road proximity</td><td>More than 100m</td><td>50 m to 100m</td><td>Less than 50m</td></tr><tr><td>Agricultural market proximity</td><td>Isochron > 20min</td><td>10 min to 20min</td><td>Less than 10min</td></tr><tr><td>Cooperative proximity</td><td>More than 20min</td><td>10 min to 20min</td><td>Less than 10min</td></tr><tr><td>Isolation (distance from the central parcel)</td><td>More than 20km</td><td>10km to 20km</td><td>Less than 10km</td></tr><tr><td>Clearance authorization</td><td>Submitted</td><td>/</td><td>Not submitted</td></tr><tr><td>Irrigation possibility</td><td>No</td><td>/</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Landowners' structure</td><td>Multi-private landowners</td><td>Mono-private landowner</td><td>Public landowners</td></tr></tbody></table>

opportunities. The classification was based on the same criteria as those defined for Fig. 4 (without taking into account the scoring step). Thus, this classification provides an overview of the agricultural production possible in each cluster.

Finally, we examined the possible threat which urban and suburban fronts represent for the vacant lands which offer the highest opportunities for an agricultural valorization. We carried out a proximity analysis of the newly artificialized spaces compared to the vacant lands with a score higher than 1. This analysis intends to draw the attention of decision makers to the urgent need to protect prime farmlands.

### 3.4. Territorial scenario building for agricultural development

In order to show the possible usefulness of this study for policy makers, we built two possible future agricultural development scenarios, one for each case study. The two criteria that we applied in order to build these scenarios were (1) the main agricultural system already existing in the area (existing crops, productive orientation, distribution chain already active, etc.), and (2) the environmental sustainability of the whole system. The links between the current agricultural system in the case study areas and the future possibilities explored in the normative scenarios are detailed in Table 4 below.

For instance, we selected a possible agricultural system which involved the greatest preservation of the forest cover and the optimum utilization of the water resource. The two scenarios were built in collaboration with a group of students and researchers, and with the preliminary advice of local stakeholders. Researchers then defined the normative hypotheses of the prospective scenarios which provide for sustainable agricultural development. Then, using collaborative GIS tools, students and researchers detailed and spatialized scenarios for each case study during workshops.

Spatial analysis methods were applied to the vacant land inventory in order to select the most suitable lands for the scenario's agricultural project. Then the impacts of the scenarios in terms of territorial development were estimated for the three following criteria: agricultural employment generated, added economic resources, and agricultural cover extension. These criteria were evaluated using national statistics for agricultural prices and also agricultural statistics for job increase evaluation (Table 5). In particular, the average number of jobs per hectare by crop type and the average added value per hectare by crop type (in France) were used. Then the new crop type distribution and the new agricultural area added (from current vacant lands) in the scenarios were converted into agricultural jobs and added economic resources for the territory.
<table><caption>**Table 4**
Relationships between the current agricultural system and the prospective agricultural scenarios proposed.</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Main economic sector (% of firms in the sector in 2015, INSEE)</th><th>Main agricultural production (% of areas farmed in 2010, SCOT)</th><th>Main distribution channel</th><th>Other agricultural production</th><th>Weakness of the agricultural system</th><th>Main local agricultural policy</th><th>Scenario for a sustainable local agriculture</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>GST agricultural system</td><td>Trade, transport and services: 73 % of firms (Agriculture: 2.7 % of firms)</td><td>Vineyards: 82 %<br>Quality labels</td><td>National / international export</td><td>Olive growing<br>Market gardening<br>Forestry</td><td>Export dependency<br>Competition between vineyards and small local farming<br>Fewer farmers<br>Deficiency of irrigation system</td><td>Agricultural landscape conservation<br>Short supply chains</td><td>Planting of vineyards and almond orchards to maintain a high added value activity</td></tr><tr><td>TPM agricultural system</td><td>Public administration, education, social work: 66 % of firms (Agriculture: 0.2 % of firms)</td><td>Vineyards: 46 %<br>Market gardening: 11 %<br>Horticulture: 11 %<br>Quality labels<br>Irrigation</td><td>National / international export (1<sup>st</sup> flower growing area of France)</td><td>Fig cultivation</td><td>Decrease of farmers<br>Housing affordability for farmers</td><td>Agricultural land conservation and spatial continuum<br>Support to flower growing industry</td><td>Development of market gardening and orchards to reach foodstuff self-sufficiency<br>Short supply chains and organic production</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: French national public statistics (Insee, Agreste) and intermunicipal planning documents.

<caption>**Table 5**</caption>

List of datasets used for the estimation of the socio-economic impacts of the scenarios.

<table><thead><tr><th>Data</th><th>Source</th><th>Date</th><th>Metadata complement</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Annual added values by crop production in France</td><td>INSEE,</td><td>2017</td><td>Estimated accounts of agriculture, base 2010</td></tr><tr><td>Areas of different crop production in France</td><td>AGRESTE</td><td>2016 – 2017</td><td>Annual agricultural statistics 2016 – 2017<br>Published in 2019</td></tr><tr><td>Dominant crop on the property, cultivated area, farm size, number of employees, farm location</td><td>RGA<br>AGRESTE</td><td>2010</td><td>Farm scale</td></tr><tr><td>MOS GST</td><td>TTI<br>production</td><td>2014</td><td>Scale of interpretation 1:1<br>500 to 1:3 000</td></tr><tr><td>MOS TPM</td><td>AUDAT83</td><td>2011</td><td>Scale of interpretation 1:1<br>500 to 1:3 000</td></tr></tbody></table>

# 4. Results

## 4.1. A reserve of vacant lands with unequal opportunities for agricultural valorization

Despite the on-going urbanization process and the increase in lands taken over, the two coastal areas have large amounts of vacant land, almost 8800 ha for TPM and 16,100 ha for GST (Table 6 and Fig. 5). In TPM, they represent 39 % of non-urban areas and 23.5 % of the intermunicipality area, while in GST, they represent 48 % of non-urban areas and 37 % of the intermunicipality area.

The topography constraints, the presence of buildings on parcels disconnected from urban areas, and the presence of strictly-protected natural lands and forests explain why only half of the vacant lands have interesting agricultural opportunities.

The nine criteria classified from 1 to 3 were totaled for each parcel, with the minimum possible score being 9 and the maximum possible score 27. Thus we considered that the parcels with an absolute score above 18 (i.e. the median) present a real potential for agriculture. In TPM, these parcels correspond to 5398 ha, i.e. 61.6 % of the total amount of vacant lands and 14.5 % of the intermunicipality area. For GST they represent 5419 ha, i.e. 33.6 % of the total amount of vacant lands and 12.5 % of the intermunicipality area.

In order to prioritize the agricultural interest of the vacant lands in each territory and to compare the two case studies, we standardized the parcel scores. The results are shown in Table 6.

The vacant lands include areas impacted by various planning projects or environmentally-related authorization requirements (weak, because not stable over time), concerning natural and forest lands, as well as brownfields and wastelands. This means that not all vacant lands can be considered as being available for agriculture. Fig. 5 shows vacant land areas with their agricultural opportunities scores.

The results show that almost half of the vacant lands have a significant or very significant potential for agriculture, according to our geographical, morphological, and regulatory criteria. Vacant lands with a score higher than 0 (i.e. the average) represent 3863 ha in GST and 7967 ha in TPM. In TPM, they are concentrated in two main zones: one municipality in the western part of the territory (Ollioules) and one wider area in the eastern part of the territory, extending over five municipalities and mainly corresponding to coastal plains drained by
<caption>**Table 6**</caption>

Vacant lands - potential agricultural areas by score class. In red, the plots with high agricultural opportunities; in blue, the plots with low agricultural opportunities; in yellow, the plots with medium agricultural opportunities.

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>TPM<br>(ha)</th><th>GST<br>(ha)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Urban areas</td><td>14144</td><td>7783</td></tr><tr><td>Non-urban area</td><td>22841</td><td>33655</td></tr><tr><td>Total vacant lands</td><td>8764</td><td>16124</td></tr><tr><th>Vacant lands for each score</th><th>(ha)</th><th>(%)</th><th>(ha)</th><th>(%)</th></tr><tr><td>+2 to +3</td><td>14</td><td>0.2</td><td>177</td><td>1.1</td></tr><tr><td>+1 to +2</td><td>1569</td><td>17.9</td><td>2424</td><td>15.0</td></tr><tr><td>0 to +1</td><td>2280</td><td>26.0</td><td>5366</td><td>33.3</td></tr><tr><td>-1 to 0</td><td>2274</td><td>26.0</td><td>3313</td><td>20.5</td></tr><tr><td>-2 to -1</td><td>2167</td><td>24.7</td><td>4843</td><td>30.0</td></tr><tr><td>-3 to -2</td><td>459</td><td>5.2</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>-4 to -3</td><td>2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 5.** Location of vacant lands and their agricultural opportunities scores.</figcaption></figure>

the Gapeau River. In GST, they are located in the inland part of the territory, away from the artificialized coastal line and not including the Maures mountain ranges. They are mainly concentrated on plains (of the Grimaud municipality, in particular), drained by little coastal rivers (e.g. La Giscle) and their tributaries. It can also be noted that some municipalities have very few vacant land areas with agricultural interest, in particular in TPM due to land already taken by urban expansion (e.g. Six-Fours-les-Plages, Sanary-sur-Mer, Saint-Mandrier, Toulon).

## 4.2. Artificialization threat to vacant lands

Combining the vacant land agricultural opportunities scores with data concerning new artificialization from between 2006 and 2014 (Crige data), we could better estimate the proximity – and thereafter the threat – of urban and suburban fronts. To do this, we analyzed the proximity of the newly artificialized spaces (urban extension or urban densification) to the vacant lands with a score higher than 1. These parcels represent 1583 ha in TPM and 2601 ha in GST. About 60 % of the areas newly artificialized between 2006 and 2014 are located
<table><caption>**Table 7**
Proximity between new urban spaces and high score vacant lands.</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Buffer distance from newly<br>artificialized spaces</th><th colspan="2">% of high score vacant lands in the buffer/ total high<br>score vacant lands</th><th colspan="2">% of vacant lands in the buffer /total vacant<br>lands</th></tr><tr><th>TPM</th><th>GST</th><th>TPM</th><th>GST</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>5m</td><td>58.3 %</td><td>62.5 %</td><td>1.9 %</td><td>2.1 %</td></tr><tr><td>50m</td><td>67.3 %</td><td>77.4 %</td><td>3 %</td><td>3.6 %</td></tr><tr><td>100m</td><td>68.9 %</td><td>81.9 %</td><td>4.6 %</td><td>5.4 %</td></tr><tr><td>200m</td><td>72.8 %</td><td>84.8 %</td><td>7.6 %</td><td>9.6 %</td></tr></tbody></table>

<figure><img src="image_39.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 6.** Urban and suburban threat to the high-score vacant lands on the plain of the Grimaud municipality (GST).</figcaption></figure>

within 5 m of the vacant land parcels with the highest scores. For a distance of 200 m, the results exceed 70 % in TPM and reach nearly 85 % in GST (Table 7). Fig. 6, based on an aerial photograph, spatially illustrates the threat of new urbanization to the vacant lands with the highest potential.

Fig. 6 focuses on the Grimaud plain, located in the GST territory. It highlights the proximity between urban spaces (mostly for residential use) and parcels with high scores for agricultural opportunities. The Grimaud plain was originally an agricultural area, which is why it has a concentration of parcels with good scores. However, urban spread has been progressively developing on this plain, creating an urban continuum between the different municipalities. The villages of Grimaud (center-west) and Cogolin (south-west) are contiguous. There are a number of residential subdivisions making an almost continuous urban line between Grimaud (west-center) and Sainte-Maxime (north-east). Moreover, a large economic activity area is located in the center of this agricultural plain.

### 4.3. Varied agricultural opportunities for vacant lands

In order to deepen the analysis of the vacant lands, we carried out a classification (AHC) of vacant land parcels, based on the criteria previously selected (Fig. 4). Results for the agricultural opportunities of parcels as given by the AHC are summarized in Fig. 7.

The two AHC classifications identified six vacant land classes (Fig. 8 and Fig. 9).

Two classes (represented in red and violet) have a similar profile for the two territories. The red class characterizes vacant lands located in an urban context (very small parcel size) and without irrigation system access. The violet class characterizes vacant lands located in a rural context (mainly natural lands) which are distant from inhabited areas and from points of sale (e.g. farm cooperative, market place). Two classes show that there are some specific local characteristics: class 6 describes very isolated vacant lands in TPM, while class 5 in GST describes all the vacant lands with the possibility of an irrigation system,
<figure><img src="image_40.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 7. Results of the AHC for the two case studies.</figcaption></figure>

which is a differentiating criterion (infrequently available in this ter-
ritory). Other classes have more heterogeneous profiles in terms of
types of agricultural opportunities.

The distribution of the red class, the parcels concerned by urban
constraints (e.g. neighbors, road proximity, current land use) shows
that these vacant lands are very scattered within urban areas (plots with
an average area of just 620 m²), and thus they are not really usable for
agriculture, except perhaps for urban gardening.

Fig. 8 The distribution of the violet class, i.e. parcels located in a

rural context, shows that these vacant lands are very isolated and lo-
cated on steep slopes, thus not really exploitable for agricultural pur-
poses. The blue and the yellow classes have an intermediate situation
compared to the previous ones: the parcels present opportunities for
agriculture (irrigable, not concerned by clearance authorization). They
are located in current agricultural areas or in a suburban context. The
orange class, similar to the previous ones, characterizes parcels also
suitable for agriculture but in natural vegetation land use and with a
forest cover which would require a clearance authorization. The parcels

<figure><img src="image_41.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 8. Classes of agricultural opportunities for vacant lands in TPM. The colors used in the key are the same as those employed in Table 8.</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_42.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 9. Classes of agricultural opportunities for vacant lands in GST. The colors used in the key are the same as those employed in Table 8.</figcaption></figure>

are large and geographically concentrated, in particular in the Gapeau Valley. Possible agricultural development in these areas should consider the conservation of natural vegetation, for instance through agroforestry or natural pastures. The green class also includes lands with forest cover covered by a clearance authorization. Agricultural development should consider non irrigable crops and/or forestry exploitation.

In Fig. 9, the violet and blue classes offer low opportunities for agriculture. Vacant lands are located on the mountains of the Massif des Maures, in a forest-covered area requiring clearance authorization, and

where some parcels are very isolated. As in the TPM classification, the red class describes parcels in an urban context with potential for urban gardening. The pink class shows lands where agriculture has to be developed or maintained. Here, the unbuilt or already cultivated lands concerned are close to inhabited areas. However as they are not irrigable, agricultural opportunities are probably limited to viticulture or other rainfed crops, such as agroforestry or permanent grassland. The yellow class includes irrigable parcels and offers a wide range of agricultural possibilities. The brown class offers good opportunities for low water-need agriculture, for example agroforestry compatible with the

<caption>Table 8</caption>

Distribution of vacant lands with a high score (class > +1) by classes (AHC). The class numbers and colors used in the key are the same as those employed in Figs. 7 and 8.

<table><thead><tr><th colspan="3">TPM</th><th colspan="3">GST</th></tr><tr><th>Class number</th><th>ha</th><th>%</th><th>Class number</th><th>ha</th><th>%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>43</td><td>2.7</td><td>1</td><td>161</td><td>6.2</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>34</td><td>1.3</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>1358</td><td>85.8</td><td>3</td><td>133</td><td>5.1</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>1552</td><td>59.7</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>167</td><td>10.6</td><td>6</td><td>720</td><td>27.7</td></tr><tr><td>No Data</td><td>14</td><td>0.9</td><td>No Data</td><td>0</td><td>0.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

<figure><img src="image_43.png" /></figure>
existing forest cover (e.g. orchards and pastoral farming).

By combining the AHC classification with the scoring analysis it can be seen that for the two case studies, vacant lands with a high score (higher than +1 in Table 6) are mainly concentrated in two classes (Table 8). In TPM, they are concentrated (97 %) in classes 3 and 6. In GST, they are 88 % concentrated in classes 4 and 6. In contrast, some classes (like the violet class) do not contain any high-score parcels, confirming that these parcels are not really interesting for agriculture.

### 4.4. Scenarios for future agricultural projects

Prospective scenarios can enlighten the public policy debate and more precisely, assess the possible greater place for agriculture. Starting from the hypothesis of agricultural land expansion, we explored a possible pathway for a sustainable planning project. Impacts of an agricultural space increase explored in the normative scenarios were measured through socio-economic indexes.

For the TPM study area, we suggest a scenario focused on market gardening and orchards, given the public's increasing awareness about short supply chains and organic production. Moreover, a good system of local farmers' markets is already established in this region. The new agricultural areas should be located in areas where irrigation is available and in parcels not subjected to land clearance authorization requirements. Moreover, a slope criterion is added: irrigated orchards can be located on plots with slopes between 20 % and 35 %, whereas for plots with an area greater than 3 ha and with a slope of less than 20 %, specialized market gardening is proposed. Otherwise, a more

polyvalent and extensive form of market gardening could be proposed. The map concerning vacant lands suitable for this scenario shows that market gardening would be located in the remaining narrow urban spaces, while orchards are located in valleys with irrigation systems (Fig. 10). If this scenario were to be adopted, agricultural areas would increase by 1560 ha, potentially providing 17 million euros of added value in terms of production from the activities, and creating 6000 jobs.

Wine is the leading production for the Var department in terms of surface areas and value. This is why we proposed further developing this agricultural system for the GST study area, possibly associated with other fruit plantations. Such an orientation is also compatible with the context of climate change, as this kind of mixed cropping includes benefits for the thermal regulation of soils, the nutrient supply, etc. Almond production was thus proposed in order to improve crop diversification and because of its low water needs and good potential market valorization (Prgomet et al., 2020; Monks et al., 2017). Moreover, the scenario considered developing new agricultural areas near the already existing ones, on groups of parcels greater than 1 ha (through land consolidation) and not subject to land clearance authorization, therefore not in classified forest areas, in order to preserve the natural vegetation. Results concerning vacant lands suitable for this scenario show a balanced spread of this agricultural development across the territory as well as good conservation of protected forest areas (Fig. 11). Under this scenario, the agricultural areas would increase by about 330 ha, with 4 million euros of added value and 620 more jobs created. Fig. 11 shows where the new agricultural parcels could be located, and summarizes the economic benefits of the scenario.

<figure><img src="image_44.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 10. Scenario 2: market gardening and orchards to reach foodstuff self-sufficiency (TPM).</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_45.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 11. Proposed scenario for the GST study area, with location of vineyards and almond orchards.</figcaption></figure>

# 5. Discussion

## 5.1. Vacant lands and agricultural valorization

Similar studies on vacant lands have been conducted at a fine scale during the last few decades. Our proposals differ in terms of valorization analysis (e.g. housing development, ecosystem services, urban gardening). The difference concerns also the scale and the extent of the analysis, as well as the associated data and the methodology possible to develop in these contexts. As mentioned in the introduction, different meanings and measurements are used to inventory vacant lands, and thus results are not directly comparable (Newman et al., 2018).

In 2015, Kremer and Hamstead, 2015 brought out a Special Issue entitled “Transformation of Urban Vacant Lots for the Common Good”, in which they estimated the amount of vacant lands in US cities at between 12.5 % and 15 % of the total land area. These numbers are valid for a restrictive meaning of vacant lands and for a limited urban context. In addition, the results were obtained from remote sensing or photointerpretation methods, which cannot be replicated over a vast area.

Two relevant studies assessed vacant lands for potential greening uses. In the city of São Bernardo do Campo (region of São Paulo, Brazil), Sanches and Mesquita Pellegrino (2016) inventoried 8% of derelict and urban vacant lands (defined as natural abandoned lands > 1 ha and determined with a photointerpretation method), and next applied

several indexes to estimate their role in the city from different aspects such as ecological or social dimensions. Pursuing the same objective, Smith et al. (2017) applied a more accurate methodology (i.e. using remote sensing and cadastral data) to the Phoenix area. They identified from 4 to 18 % of vacant lands mainly located in the core and on the fringe of the different cities, considering vacant lands with different morphological criteria than those used for our analysis (e.g. parcel size from 56 m², < 5% slope). Other studies have provided estimations of the amount of vacant lands in a city using sampling and estimation methods, as in Mcdougall et al. (2020) or Kim et al. (2018).

While the majority of vacant lands inventories concern city contexts, in our case studies we enlarged the area of two coastal municipalities, obtaining as a result an amount of vacant lands of 23.5 % and 37 % respectively for the TPM and GST case studies. Nevertheless, just a small part of this total area of vacant lands has interest for agricultural valorization according to the geographical, physical and regulatory criteria considered in the analysis: in TPM and GST respectively, 61.6 % and 33.6 % of the total of vacant lands and almost 14.5 % and 12.5 % of the TPM and GST intermunicipality area.

Other studies have been carried out with an in-depth analysis of the agricultural potential of vacant lands, for example in the work of Erickson et al. (2013) by the inclusion of data on soil quality. The authors gave an estimation of lands with prime soil in Chittenden County, Vermont, which represent 74 % of lands with agricultural opportunity. This finding shows what could be an interesting continuation of our
work, with the integration of soil quality data unfortunately not available in our context.

Moreover, our results highlight the proximity of the urban front to the best lands: 60 % of spaces newly artificialized between 2006 and 2014 are located within 5 m of the vacant land parcels with the highest scores. These results confirm previous studies analyzing the artificialization of prime farmlands (Martellozzo et al., 2020; Ceccarelli et al., 2014; Ferrara et al., 2014). In their recent study, Aksoy et al. (2017) showed that France belongs to the group of European countries with the highest quantity of lands where development strongly impacts the biomass productivity potential of arable lands. They also noted that the southern region is considered as a hotspot from this point of view. Furthermore, in a comparison of EU countries, Tóth (2012) demonstrated that the largest total loss of cropland area between 2000 and 2006 (corresponding to half of the total land taken in Europe), occurred in Spain followed by France. Our work can therefore be considered as a confirmation of these assertions.

## 5.2. Implications for future urban planning and agricultural policies

These findings indicate the need for new protection measures for agricultural lands. More specifically, and beyond the protection of current agricultural lands, what is required is the protection of lands offering opportunities to develop global and coherent agricultural planning projects. In the coastal context, the integrated coastal management tool should better take into account the relationships between settlements and environmentally-important or agricultural areas (Prévost and Robert, 2016; Cori, 1999). This perspective is becoming more and more essential to regulate land use on coastal areas. Past experience has shown that sector-specific regulation (i.e. concerning agricultural lands) is not efficient in the face of market forces. Geniaux et al. (2015) provided an interesting result from their examination of the same cadastral data: in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur area between 1999 and 2007, land supply (i.e. lands within constructible zoning) reduced significantly (- 40 %, that is -56 123 ha) due to housing increase (+14 %) and changes in urban planning zoning (loss of 55 000 ha). In fact, from local planning documents to national tools of – agricultural – land conservation, current sector-based measures just enable the artificialization process to be slowed down, but do not permit the promotion of agricultural planning projects. A recent measure has been created reflecting this (named the “territorial foodstuff circuit project” based on the agricultural law of 2014), but it has not had much impact up to now (just 150 projects in 2019 whereas 500 were expected by 2020, as indicated by the Caisse des Dépôts,2019). For example, it organizes, at a municipal scale, local channel distribution of the agricultural production to establishments with mass catering. The second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) also represents a tool available for implementing agricultural projects. This co-funding aims to improve the sustainable development of rural regions and communities in the EU (Gomez-Limon and Atance, 2004), and can be integrated in the objectives of local planning (Sanz Sanz et al., 2018). In this sense, the enforced prospective scenarios give a central place to agricultural land valorization and explore a valorization of multifunctional agriculture (e.g. Scorsino and Debolini, 2020; Renting et al., 2009).

A concerted approach combined with spatial analysis was used for a spatialized and quantitative analysis of the opportunities for agricultural expansion in the territories. In order to encourage public debate on the inventory and prospective scenario results, workshops were organized on the two case studies with local players (Casanova Enault et al., 2020). In terms of farming system typology, our choice was to propose scenarios sustainable from both the environmental and the

socio-economic points of view. This involved finding a compromise between more agro-ecological systems and specialized/intensive ones. In this paper, we did not analyse the possible use of limited resources in farm management, such as water for irrigation systems, because our scenarios were simply illustrative of the possible realization of break-away futures. Future works in this field should consider these implications (Ricart et al., 2019; Nicholls et al., 2020). Elsewhere, similar normative scenarios have been built with strong hypotheses regarding the need for climate change adaptation (Carter, 2018; Milestad et al., 2014; Rounsevell et al., 2006). This parameter is not included in our study, which focused on the present situation to raise questions for decision makers about the existing residential issues of the territory, and the current opportunities to change planning project directions.

## 5.3. Methodological discussion

In terms of methodology, one of the main challenges was the detailed scale of work. As previously mentioned, all the spatial analyses were carried out at parcel scale in order to enable the use of the results as a base for spatial planning by policy makers. On such a vast study area, the investigations employed mainly land-use data with a larger mesh size (e.g. Corine Land Cover dataset) which just consider polygons bigger than 25 ha (Schmit et al., 2006; Santa Olalla Manas et al., 2003). This potentially hides a part of the vacant lands, in particular within the urban fabric. However, this approach is limited by the low number of relevant datasets available at the parcel scale, and which are therefore not included in the analysis, such as soil quality. Nevertheless, we consider here that the quality of soils is a less determining factor influencing the possibility of extending agricultural development in the case studies than the major factor of land availability. In addition, given the Mediterranean context, several agricultural activities can potentially be developed in most places, like viticulture. A more significant factor is water access, which is included in the analysis.

Another methodological question concerns the choice of thresholds for the scoring settings. Results are sensitive to these settings and may be refined to a more local scale of analysis (e.g. municipal scale).

In scenario building, it should be remembered that the expansion of agricultural lands does not mean that the agricultural activity chain will systematically improve (e.g. in terms of jobs). Socio-economic impacts assessed for the scenarios do show encouraging results (Figs. 10 and 11). However, they correspond to global estimations, based on aggregated data. In addition, they are dependent on the current context. Possible macro-economic (e.g. market regulation) or social (e.g. farming conditions) changes may occur in the future, and are not taken into account. In a broader perspective, uncertainty as to the future was not measured here, as the main goal of the normative scenario building was to inform and question local stakeholders regarding the possibility of alternatives to residential development.

# 6. Conclusion

In this paper, we inventoried existing vacant lands at the parcel scale in two intermunicipality areas of south-eastern France, characterized by a high urbanization trend and a strong tourism and residential economy. Next, we evaluated the possible opportunities in valorizing vacant lands other than via residential development. Despite the common belief of local stakeholders according to which the MedCoast is now saturated, we found several vacant land hotspots with high opportunities for agricultural valorization in our case study areas. These parcels are especially located on coastal plains, excluding artificialized coastlines and inland mountainous areas. Starting from this inventory of vacant lands suitable for agricultural valorization, two
territorial scenarios were built, one for each case study, compatible with sustainable development principles. The two scenarios demonstrated that alternatives to residential development are potentially possible, with the expansion of agricultural activities. At the same time, it can be seen that some vacant lands with higher agricultural activities are threatened by the strong expansion of the urban and periurban front, which is often very close.

A continuation of this study could be to explore a diverse set of other possible future scenarios, which could also consider agricultural systems and food chains in the region which do not exist at present, and taking into account potential future climate change and its impacts on the resource availability. Moreover, our research demonstrated that while vacant lands represent almost half of the intermunicipality areas, those with high interest for agriculture are only 12-15 % of such areas. A future line of work should also concern effective agricultural land protection strategies which go beyond the simple issue of urban planning, as the various existing land use regulatory systems have failed to protect such lands (Melot et al., 2018; Abrantes et al., 2016; Padeiro, 2016; Geniaux et al., 2015).

### CRediT authorship contribution statement

**Laure Casanova Enault:** Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Supervision.
**Tatiana Popoff:** Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing - original draft, Visualization.
**Marta Debolini:** Methodology, Writing - original draft, Supervision.

### Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Fondation de France, 40 avenue Hoche 75008 Paris through the DURB project, headed by Guilhem Boulay (UMR ESPACE, Avignon University). The authors also wish to thank all the local experts who agreed to answer our questions and to participate in our workshops, as well as the students of the GEOTER Master's degree of Avignon University (year 2018-19). We thank Beverley Marshall of IBL for the English revision. We finally wish to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments.

## Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104914.

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#5 - ARTICLE

USING BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

Perez S. (MCF, Université Côte d'Azur), German-Labaume C., Mathiot S., Goix S., Chamaret P.

2021 (Epub et preprint), 2022 (publication en revue), *Environmental Research*, Volume 204, Part B, 112059

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.112059

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121013542

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03347898/

Dans cet article, l'espace est au cœur de la recherche, et notamment sa capacité à entrer dans les corps (de l'espace au corps) et à induire des maladies. Cet article expose une chaîne méthodologique inédite qui repose sur les réseaux bayésiens (Intelligence Artificielle, algorithmes non supervisés et supervisés). La méthodologie employée a permis de révéler à très fine échelle (IRIS), et en faisant appel à 178 variables de natures différentes (polluants atmosphériques, bio-indication et bio-imprégnation lichéniques, socio-économiques, sanitaires) :

- un lien entre cadmium et diabète chez les plus de 65 ans au sein du Pays de Martigues pris en étau entre un des plus grands complexes pétrochimiques européens (Lavéra<fnref n="22" />) qu'il abrite et les émissions de Fos-sur-Mer ;

- un lien entre le vanadium (présent naturellement dans le pétrole brut) et des maladies respiratoires avérées ;

- plusieurs effets de seuil, comme un seuil actif pour le SO₂ dès 6 µg/m³ (alors que la norme est établie à 50 µg/m³), ou bien encore, dès que l'acide fluorhydrique dépasse 0.0028 µg/m³, ce qui se traduit par plus de cancers du poumon chez les 15-65 ans, enfin lorsque le benzo[k]fluoranthène dans sa phase particulaire s'approche de 0.672 µg/m³ plus de séjours hospitaliers respiratoires chez les 15-65 ans sont enregistrés dans les hôpitaux alentours ;

- une vulnérabilité différenciée aux polluants selon l'âge ;

- des comorbidités entre maladies respiratoires et cardiovasculaires (confirmant les connaissances de la littérature) ;

- l'influence de la socio-économie (familles monoparentales, sortie du système scolaire sans qualification à 15 ans) sur certaines pathologies (maladies cardio-vasculaires dues à des conditions de vie et/ou de travail difficiles, qui peuvent donc se cumuler).

Enfin, plus de 120 analyses de sensibilité ont mis en lumière des effets cocktails particulièrement délétères sur la santé des habitants dans certains quartiers. La méthodologie exposée est facilement transposable pour toute personne s'intéressant à ces questions de pollution de l'air sur la santé.

<footnote n="22">²² http://www.naphtachimie.com/index.php/plateforme</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_46.png" /></figure>

# Using Bayesian networks for environmental health risk assessment

Sandra Pérez<sup>a, *</sup>, Catherine German-Labaume<sup>b</sup>, Sébastien Mathiot<sup>c</sup>, Sylvaine Goix<sup>d</sup>,
Philippe Chamaret<sup>d</sup>

<figure><img src="image_47.png" /></figure>

## ARTICLE INFO

### Keywords:

- Bayesian networks
- Biomonitoring
- Health
- Lichens
- Risk assessment

## ABSTRACT

The study investigated the potential relationships between air pollution, socio-economy, and proven pathologies (e.g., respiratory, cardiovascular) within an industrial area in Southern France (Etang de Berre), gathering steel industries, oil refineries, shipping, road traffic and experiencing a Mediterranean climate. A total of 178 variables were simultaneously integrated within a Bayesian model at intra-urban scale. Various unsupervised and supervised algorithms (maximum spanning tree, tree-augmented naive classifier) as well as sensitivity analyses were used to better understand the links between all variables, and highlighted correlations between population exposure to air pollutants and some pathologies. Adverse health effects (bronchus and lung cancers for 15-65 years old people) were observed for hydrofluoric acid at low background concentration (<0.003 µg m⁻³) while exposure to particulate cadmium (0.210-0.250 µg m⁻³) disrupts insulin metabolism for people over 65 years-old leading to diabetes. Bronchus and lung cancers for people over 65 years-old occurred at low background SO₂ concentration (6 µg m⁻³) below European limit values. When benzo[k]fluoranthene exceeded 0.672 µg m⁻³, we observed a high number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases for 15-65 years-old people. The study also revealed the important influence of socio-economy (e.g., single-parent family, people with no qualification at 15 years-old) on pathologies (e.g., cardiovascular diseases). Finally, a diffuse polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) pollution was observed in the study area and can potentially cause lung cancers.

## 1. Introduction

Outdoor air pollution is a major public health issue in the world (e.g., Lelieveld et al., 2015; Cohen et al., 2017; Khaniabadi et al., 2018; Sicard et al., 2019; Rovira et al., 2020) leading to half a million premature deaths in the European Union in 2015 (European Environment Agency, 2018). Industrial activities, motor vehicle emissions, transport, and domestic heating are different sources of air pollution in urban areas (European Environment Agency, 2019) releasing air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulphur oxides (SOx), black carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere (European Environment Agency, 2019). In Europe, 74% of the population lives in cities (European Union, 2016), and is usually exposed to about 200 air pollutants or classes of air pollutants (Sicard et al., 2012, 2021). Previous studies have reported an association between ambient air pollution exposure and mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular

diseases (e.g., Amoatey et al., 2020; Pascal et al., 2014; Cai et al., 2016; Cohen et al., 2017; Guo et al., 2018; Mannucci et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2020a, 2020b; Khaniabadi et al., 2019; Park et al., 2021). The European Union and the World Health Organization regulate the concentrations of air pollutants by setting limit and target values for the protection of human health (e.g., Directive, 2008/50/EC European Council, WHO, 2006 Air Quality Guidelines 2006).

Martigues conurbation is an urban-industrial area located in South-
ern France, open onto the Mediterranean Sea, nearby the biggest in-
dustrial area in Southern Europe, namely Berre Pond (Etang de Berre).
The pond is surrounded by major industrial complexes and oil refineries,
and experiences high levels of air pollutants impacting the health and
well-being of citizens (Allen et al., 2017; Goix et al., 2018; Mantey et al.,
2019; Pérez, 2016, 2019). From 2013, epidemiological and scientific
studies were carried to investigate the health effects of air pollution on
local population (Mantey et al., 2019). The REVELA study (Rein, VÉssie
et Leucémie Aigüe) was conducted by Santé Publique France between 2013

<footnote><sup>a</sup> University Côte d'Azur, UMR, 7300, Boulevard E. Herriot, Nice, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>b</sup> Centre Intercommunal de l'Action Sociale du Pays de Martigues, Health and Handicap Department, Avenue Louis Sammut, Martigues, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>c</sup> AtmoSud, Route de la Vierge, Martigues, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>d</sup> Institut Ecocitoyen pour la Connaissance des Pollutions, Centre de vie, La Fossette, Fos-sur-Mer, France</footnote>

<footnote>* Corresponding author.</footnote>

<footnote>E-mail address: sandra.perez@univ-cotedazur.fr (S. Pérez).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_48.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_49.png" /></figure>

# Using Bayesian networks for environmental health risk assessment

Sandra Pérez<sup>a, *</sup>, Catherine German-Labaume<sup>b</sup>, Sébastien Mathiot<sup>c</sup>, Sylvaine Goix<sup>d</sup>,
Philippe Chamaret<sup>d</sup>

## ARTICLE INFO

Keywords:

Bayesian networks

Biomonitoring

Health

Lichens

Risk assessment

## ABSTRACT

The study investigated the potential relationships between air pollution, socio-economy, and proven pathologies (e.g., respiratory, cardiovascular) within an industrial area in Southern France (Etang de Berre), gathering steel industries, oil refineries, shipping, road traffic and experiencing a Mediterranean climate. A total of 178 variables were simultaneously integrated within a Bayesian model at intra-urban scale. Various unsupervised and supervised algorithms (maximum spanning tree, tree-augmented naive classifier) as well as sensitivity analyses were used to better understand the links between all variables, and highlighted correlations between population exposure to air pollutants and some pathologies. Adverse health effects (bronchus and lung cancers for 15-65 years old people) were observed for hydrofluoric acid at low background concentration (<0.003 µg m⁻³) while exposure to particulate cadmium (0.210-0.250 µg m⁻³) disrupts insulin metabolism for people over 65 years-old leading to diabetes. Bronchus and lung cancers for people over 65 years-old occurred at low background SO₂ concentration (6 µg m⁻³) below European limit values. When benzo[k]fluoranthene exceeded 0.672 µg m⁻³, we observed a high number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases for 15-65 years-old people. The study also revealed the important influence of socio-economy (e.g., single-parent family, people with no qualification at 15 years-old) on pathologies (e.g., cardiovascular diseases). Finally, a diffuse polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) pollution was observed in the study area and can potentially cause lung cancers.

## 1. Introduction

Outdoor air pollution is a major public health issue in the world (e.g., Lelieveld et al., 2015; Cohen et al., 2017; Khaniabadi et al., 2018; Sicard et al., 2019; Rovira et al., 2020) leading to half a million premature deaths in the European Union in 2015 (European Environment Agency, 2018). Industrial activities, motor vehicle emissions, transport, and domestic heating are different sources of air pollution in urban areas (European Environment Agency, 2019) releasing air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulphur oxides (SOₓ), black carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere (European Environment Agency, 2019). In Europe, 74% of the population lives in cities (European Union, 2016), and is usually exposed to about 200 air pollutants or classes of air pollutants (Sicard et al., 2012, 2021). Previous studies have reported an association between ambient air pollution exposure and mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular

diseases (e.g., Amoatey et al., 2020; Pascal et al., 2014; Cai et al., 2016; Cohen et al., 2017; Guo et al., 2018; Mannucci et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2020a, 2020b; Khaniabadi et al., 2019; Park et al., 2021). The European Union and the World Health Organization regulate the concentrations of air pollutants by setting limit and target values for the protection of human health (e.g., Directive, 2008/50/EC European Council, WHO, 2006 Air Quality Guidelines 2006).

Martigues conurbation is an urban-industrial area located in Southern France, open onto the Mediterranean Sea, nearby the biggest industrial area in Southern Europe, namely Berre Pond (Etang de Berre). The pond is surrounded by major industrial complexes and oil refineries, and experiences high levels of air pollutants impacting the health and well-being of citizens (Allen et al., 2017; Goix et al., 2018; Mantey et al., 2019; Pérez, 2016, 2019). From 2013, epidemiological and scientific studies were carried to investigate the health effects of air pollution on local population (Mantey et al., 2019). The REVELA study (Rein, VÉssie et Leucémie Aigüe) was conducted by Santé Publique France between 2013

<footnote><sup>a</sup> University Côte d'Azur, UMR, 7300, Boulevard E. Herriot, Nice, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>b</sup> Centre Intercommunal de l'Action Sociale du Pays de Martigues, Health and Handicap Department, Avenue Louis Sammut, Martigues, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>c</sup> AtmoSud, Route de la Vierge, Martigues, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>d</sup> Institut Ecocitoyen pour la Connaissance des Pollutions, Centre de vie, La Fossette, Fos-sur-Mer, France</footnote>

<footnote>* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: sandra.perez@univ-cotedazur.fr (S. Pérez).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_50.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.** Location of the study area and air quality monitoring stations (blue/pink: industrial & pre-urban/urban station; square: fixed station. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)</figcaption></figure>

and 2016, focussing on kidney and bladder cancers and acute myeloid leukaemia. This study showed that the incidence rate for bladder cancers, among people >20 years-old, was higher than those observed at the national level (Mantey et al., 2019). In 2015, the Fos-EPSEAL study (Étude Participative en Santé Environnement Ancrée Localement) was conducted in two urban areas (Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône) and allowed collecting health data on a random sample of inhabitants through a participatory approach (Allen et al., 2017; Fortin et al., 2017; Jeanjean et al., 2021). Chronic diseases and acute symptoms were often observed in both cities. The prevalence of asthma in adults, of cancers (notably for women) and diabetes (type 1) is significantly higher in both cities than at national level (Allen et al., 2017; Jeanjean et al., 2021). Respiratory ailments (except hayfever) concern almost one in two adults and one in four children (Jeanjean et al., 2021). Then, the INDEX (Etude d'imprégnation de la population aux polluants atmosphériques de la zone industrialo-portuaire de Fos-sur-Mer) study was conducted in 2016 in Fos-sur-Mer by the Institut Ecocitoyen pour la Connaissance des Populations on blood and urine samples of 138 inhabitants, and revealed an over-impregnation by lead and two heptachlor furans (i.e., 1,2,3,4,6,7, 8-HpCDF and 1,2,3,4,7,8,9 HpCDF), characteristic of industrial emissions, and by benzene for people over 65 years-old (Goix et al., 2018). In this area, gardening was associated with a high impregnation by polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs), and the consumption of vegetables from garden was associated with a high impregnation by cadmium (Goix et al., 2018). Similarly, the consumption of local seafood (fish, shellfish, and sea fruits) was associated with a high impregnation by PCBs, dioxins/furans, mercury, and chrome (Goix et al., 2018). Finally, the SCE-NARII (Simulation de scénarii de pollution atmosphérique pour une Evaluation des Risques Sanitaires - Zone Etang de Berre) and POLIS (Plan d'Observation des Polluants d'Intérêt Sanitaire) studies were conducted in 2010 in 66 cities around the Berre Pond and allowed calculating an excess risk considering 39 substances (AtmoSud, 2016; AtmoSud, 2015). The limit values were exceeded for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 and 10 µm (PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀, respectively), diesel particles, benzene, 1,3-Butadiene and 1,

2-Dichloroetane. Some areas have presented higher level of risk i.e., Gulf of Fos, Martigue, Berre, Marignane and road transport axes.

In Southern France, where air pollution is a major public health issue (Salameh et al., 2018; Khaniabadi and Sicard, 2021), most of published studies focused on the health impacts of exposure to common ambient air pollutants such as PM, NO₂, and tropospheric ozone (e.g., InVS, 2008; Pascal et al., 2014; Sicard et al., 2019). For the first time, a risk assessment was focused on an industrial area in Southern France (Berre Pond as study case). Using Bayesian networks, this study aimed to better understand the relationships between air pollution, biodiversity (lichens), socio-economy, and proven pathologies by age group (i.e., 178 variables in total, Tab. 1S) at intra-urban scale in 2015.

## 2. Materials and methods

### 2.1. Study area

Martigues conurbation gathers three municipalities i.e., Martigues, Port-de-Bouc, and Saint-Mitre-les-Remparts with a total population of 71,000 inhabitants in 2015 (Fig. 1), and experiences a Mediterranean climate, with an annual mean rainfall and air temperature of 606 mm and 19.5 °C, respectively. Along the French Mediterranean coastline, air pollution is a major public health issue, mainly due to industrial development, oil refineries, road traffic increment, high insolation, and sea/land breeze recirculation (Salameh et al., 2018; Sicard et al., 2019), including tropospheric ozone (O₃) with rising levels in cities in Southern France (on average + 0.31 ppb per year) since the early 2000s (Sicard, 2021).

### 2.2. Health data

We have selected some pathologies linked to air pollution (e.g., Suissa et al., 2013; Adam et al., 2015; Atkinson et al., 2015; Münzel et al., 2016; Mazenq et al., 2017; Guo et al., 2018; Doiron et al., 2019; Hwang et al., 2020) i.e., corresponding to the following International
<caption>**Table 1a**</caption>

Annual mean concentration of each gaseous air pollutant (in µg/m³) for the year 2015 in the study area. M: model, m: measurement, * the background is taken at the level of a point distant from any source (Etang de Rolland area). Limit and target values for air pollutants as given in the European Ambient Air Quality Directive (Directive, 2008/50/EC) for the protection of human health.

<table><thead><tr><th>Pollutant</th><th>Model/ Measurement</th><th>Concentration (µg/m³)</th><th>EU limit and target value</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Sulphur dioxide - SO<sub>2</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>6</td><td>Number of exceedance of 24-h mean (125 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)<sup>a</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Nitrogen dioxide - NO<sub>2</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>8.0</td><td>Annual mean (40 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)<sup>b</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Carbon monoxide - CO</td><td>M + m</td><td>263</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hydrochloric acid - HCl</td><td>M</td><td>8.23E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hydrofluoric acid - HF</td><td>M</td><td>5.29E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzene - C<sub>6</sub>H<sub>6</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>0.7</td><td>Annual mean (5 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)</td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [a]pyrene - BaP</td><td>M</td><td>2.42E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons - PAHs</td><td>M</td><td>2.11E-3</td><td>Annual mean (1.0 ng BaP/m³)</td></tr><tr><td>Dioxins and furans - PCDD and PCDF</td><td>M</td><td>2.31E-10</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Mercury - Hg</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.06E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [a]anthracene - BaA</td><td>M</td><td>3.42E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [b]fluoranthene - BbF</td><td>M</td><td>2.68E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [k]fluoranthene - BkF</td><td>M</td><td>1.88E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Indeno [1,2,3-c,d] pyrene - IcdP</td><td>M</td><td>1.52E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dibenzo [a,h] anthracene - DahA</td><td>M</td><td>3.12E-07</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Fluoranthene - Fluoran</td><td>M</td><td>2.24E-05</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Polychlorobiphenyls - PCB</td><td>M</td><td>5.663E-07</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>1,3-butadiene - CAH<sub>6</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>0.13</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hydrogen sulphide - H<sub>2</sub>S</td><td>M</td><td>5.72E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>1,2-dichloroethane - DCE</td><td>M + m</td><td>0.03</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Classification of Diseases ICD-10 codes: I00 to I199 all diseases of the circulatory system (e.g., ischemic heart diseases, coronary diseases), J00 to J199 all diseases of the respiratory system (e.g., asthma, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, bronchopulmonary diseases, laryngitis, pharyngitis, sinusitis, tracheitis), E10 to E14 all diabetes types (type 1 insulin-dependent, and type 2 non-insulin-dependent), C34 all types of lung and bronchus cancers, C67 for bladder cancer, and C64 for kidney cancer.

For each pathology, we retrieved the numbers of hospital admissions, classified into three age groups (<15, 15–65, and >65 years-old) for patients having stayed either at the Martigues Centre Hospitalier, the Martigues Clinique, the Paoli Calmettes Institute or in one of the five nearby public hospitals (Hôpital de la Timone, Hôpital de la Conception, Hôpital Nord, Sainte Marguerite and Salvator) in 2015. We did not obtain the “gender” in addition to the “age” because the use of both information mutually was considered as discriminatory by the National Commission on Informatics and Liberty. For statistical studies, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) developed a system for dividing the country into units of equal size, known as IRIS 2000. In French, IRIS is an acronym of “aggregated units for statistical information”, and the 2000 refers to the target size of 2000 residents per basic unit. IRIS represented the fundamental unit for dissemination of infra-municipal data. The fact of dealing with a fine territorial scale imposes having enough cases per IRIS and consequently to work by

<caption>**Table 1b**</caption>

Annual mean concentration of each particulate air pollutant (in µg/m³) for the year 2015 in the study area. M: model, m: measurement, * the background is taken at the level of a point distant from any source (Etang de Rolland area). Limit and target values (threshold in µg m⁻³) for air pollutants as given in the European Ambient Air Quality Directive (Directive, 2008/50/EC) for the protection of human health.

<table><thead><tr><th>Pollutant</th><th>Model/ Measurement</th><th>Concentration (µg/m³)</th><th>EU limit and target value</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Particles with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 10 µm - PM<sub>10</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>16.0</td><td>40<sup>a</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Particles with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 µm - PM<sub>2.5</sub></td><td>M + m</td><td>10.0</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Benzo-a-pyrene - BaP</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.63E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons - PAHs</td><td>M</td><td>1.38E-03</td><td>Annual mean (1.0 ng BaP/m³)</td></tr><tr><td>Dioxins and furans - PCDD and PCDF</td><td>M + m</td><td>2.16E-08</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Lead - Pb</td><td>M + m</td><td>4.02E-03</td><td>Annual mean (0.5)</td></tr><tr><td>Arsenic - As</td><td>M + m</td><td>3.86E-04</td><td>Annual mean (0.006 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)</td></tr><tr><td>Cadmium - Cd</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.39E-04</td><td>Annual mean (0.005 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)</td></tr><tr><td>Nickel - Ni</td><td>M</td><td>2.03E-04</td><td>Annual mean (0.02 µg m<sup>-3</sup>)</td></tr><tr><td>Mercury - Hg</td><td>M + m</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Chromium - Cr</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.97E-03</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Chromium VI - Cr VI</td><td>Cr VI/total Cr</td><td>1.40E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Copper - Cu</td><td>M + m</td><td>3.75E-03</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Selenium - Se</td><td>M + m</td><td>3.65E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Vanadium - V</td><td>M + m</td><td>2.51E-03</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Zinc - Zn</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.93E-02</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [a]anthracene - BaA</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.38E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [b]fluoranthene - BbF</td><td>M + m</td><td>3.09E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Benzo [k]fluoranthene - BkF</td><td>M + m</td><td>1.36E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Indeno [1,2,3-c,d] pyrene - IcdP</td><td>M + m</td><td>2.32E-04</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dibenzo [a,h]anthracene - DahA</td><td>M + m</td><td>4.20E-05</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Fluoranthene - Fluoran</td><td>M</td><td>8.28E-06</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Polychlorobiphenyls - PCB</td><td>M</td><td>6.30E-07</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Diesel particles - PM<sub>10</sub> diesel</td><td>diesel/PM10</td><td>5.00E-01</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

batches of codes (e.g., I00 to I199) rather than by separated codes.

## 2.3. Air pollution data

In risk assessment, exposure is considered equal to air pollutants concentrations at a specific point in space and time (Bogaert et al., 2009). The data for 44 pollutants were provided by the Certified Associations of Air Quality Monitoring in Southeastern France (Atmo Sud) and obtained from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 (Table 1). In the study area, there are 11 industrial and 4 urban monitoring stations (Fig. 1). Only background stations, with more than 90% of validated hourly data in a year, were selected to better represent average exposure (Directive, 2008/50/EC). AtmoSud has developed an Information Technology tool producing maps of annual mean concentrations for air pollutants at 3 × 3 km of spatial resolution from both modelling (Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System) and in situ measurements (AtmoSud, 2016). The air pollution maps were produced for built-up areas on which a 100 m buffer was applied to have a more accurate

<footnote><sup>a</sup> The 24-h SO₂ mean concentration does not to exceed 125 µg m⁻³ more than 3 times a year.</footnote>

<footnote><sup>b</sup> The annual mean NO₂ concentration does not to exceed 40 µg m⁻³.</footnote>

<footnote><sup>a</sup> For the protection of human health, the annual mean PM₁₀ concentration does not to exceed 40 µg m⁻³ (Directive, 2008/50/EC).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_51.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 2. Location of the lichen sample plots within the study area (source IECP).</figcaption></figure>

measurement of pollution in the population's living spaces (Fig. 1S).

## 2.4. Lichens: bio-indication and bio-impregnation

In addition to the 44 air pollution variables, 109 chemical analyses (bio-impregnation measurements) were carried out on lichen samples in September 2017 by the *Institut EcoCitoyen pour la Connaissance des Pollution* (IECP) on specific plots (Fig. 2). For spatial representativeness of each plot, a 500 m radius around the bio-impregnation plot was considered, as recommended by the IECP (Ratier et al., 2018). A variability of maximum 35% for metals and 30% for various congenerics PAH has been measured in a plot within a 500 m radius (Ratier et al., 2018). Samples were taken with a knife after humidification and stored at + 39.2 °F for maximum 5 days. The impurities were removed, and the

samples were frozen at – 113 °F, then lyophilized at – 131 °F before to be crushed and again frozen at - 113 °F. The chemical analyses were carried out at the laboratory of La Timone (Aix-Marseille University, Faculty of Pharmacy) for PAHs and PCBs, as well as at the “La Drôme Laboratoires” in Valence, for Dioxins and Furans. The impregnation results represent a 6-month integration. These measurements on lichens are useful to limit a confounding factor that could be linked to the residents' way of life more than the effects of air pollution (notably addiction to smoking); most of them are in IRIS area known to be socio-economically disadvantaged.

Looking to the bio-indication, several indicators relating to the biodiversity (Chao et al., 2016) were calculated (abundance of species, lichen diversity value, Index of Atmospheric Purity, and the Shannon's diversity index). The Index of Atmospheric Purity is used for the
<figure><img src="image_52.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 3. The bio-indication survey (source IECP).</figcaption></figure>

assessment of air quality in polluted urban areas based on phytosocio-
logical data of epiphytic lichen communities (Chao et al., 2016). The
survey was done on 10 trees per plot, on all four faces of the tree and
according to a 5-box observation grid (Fig. 3). The frequency of each
species is the ratio of the number of observations of the species per plot
divided by 200 (10 trees * 4 faces * 5 boxes).

## 2.5. Socio-economic data

We have also retrieved seven socio-economic variables, as the air
pollution effects will not affect everyone in the same way (Jiao et al.,
2018, Næss et al., 2007). The disadvantaged communities might be
more exposed to air pollution, but also might have less resources to
counter them e.g., by postponing medical consultations by lack of re-
sources, or asthma poorly controlled (Temam, 2017, Fosse-Edorh et al.,
2014). These variables were provided by the INSEE from the
sub-municipal databases in 2017, including: i) the number of people
living in households for more than 10 years (P14_PMEN_ANEM10P), ii)
number of unschooled people of at least 15 years-old and without
qualification (P14_NSCOL15P_DIPLO), iii) number of people living in
single-parent households (C14_PMEN_MENFAMMONO), iv) number of
people in main homes occupied by tenants (P14_NPER_RP_LOC), v)
number of immigrants (P14_POP_IMM), vi) number of unemployed in
the 15-64 years-old age group (P14_CHOM1564), and vii) median in-
come (DEC_MED14).

For comparison between each IRIS area, the above variables were
used as percentage of the IRIS total population. All these indicators were

used to know the level of precariousness or social disadvantage in each
IRIS area. We used disaggregated variables to precisely investigate on
which variables differences between IRIS appear. In total, 178 variables
(Tab. 1S) were measured within 30 IRIS areas, corresponding to 5340
data. These data were integrated within the same Bayesian model.

## 2.6. The Bayesian networks

The Bayesian networks allow establishing relations among various
variables to analyse their interrelations and combinations by using
probabilities (Pearl, 2009a,b; Sottas et al., 2009; Pearl, 2014; Conrady
and Jouffe, 2015; Pearl and Mackenzie, 2018). The probabilistic
approach is particularly well suited to health risk issues, because re-
lations between variables are not always determinist but rather indirect
(Pearl, 2009a; b, 2014). Moreover, Bayesian networks allow at the same
time modelling knowledge and producing new knowledge by revealing
causal relations until now hidden (causal inference), or latent variables,
and this, within the framework of unsupervised analysis (causal
knowledge discovery). They bring added value in terms of knowledge
and are an interesting tool for quantitative modelling of complex sys-
tems in uncertain fields, whether health or others. This is the reason why
they are increasingly used worldwide, in fields as diverse as industry,
finance, marketing, security, and many others (Weber and Simon,
2016).

A Bayesian network is made up of two elements: a conceptual map
and a database (Pearl, 2009a,b). The conceptual map defines the
network structure used for knowledge organization and representation.
This map is either built from the database, or from expert's knowledge of
the investigated subjects. In our case, we decided to extract knowledge
included in our database. All processing was carried out using the spe-
cific software devoted to Bayesian networks, i.e., BayesiaLab 7.0.1. The
conceptual map is visually represented by directed arcs representing the
causal relations linking the variables, represented by nodes (Fig. 2S).
Between the nodes, causal relationships are drawn using an unsuper-
vised artificial intelligence learning algorithm of the "maximum span-
ning tree" type. Thereafter, the conceptual map of the 178 variables
appears in unsupervised form (Fig. 4).

## 2.7. Statistical and sensitivity analyses

Data were tested for normal distribution by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov
one-sample D test. The correlation analyses were performed using the
parametric Pearson test for annual data (Table 2). For health data
analysis, we also applied a Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) to group
similar objects into groups called clusters. The distance between two
clusters has been computed based on the Euclidean distance. The main
output of HCA is a dendrogram showing the hierarchical relationship
between the clusters (Govender and Sivakumar, 2020). All health data
and number of hospital admissions for each age group and IRIS area
were normalized to the total population.

The relations between variables at a finer scale were investigated
using sensitivity analyses for each of the 30 IRIS areas, taking simulta-
neously into account the 44 air pollutants, the 17 variables obtaining
from the lichen surveys and acting on pathologies (Chlorobiphenyl
CB169, TEQ-2005, CB187, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, As, 2,3,7,8-TeCDF, crusta-
ceans, Lichen diversity value, CB149, CB114, CB157, CB20, CB28, Co,
CB194, Lichen abundance, PCB indicators), and the 7 socio-economic
variables, i.e. a total of 68 variables (Fig. 5S). Fig. 6S represents all
sensitivity analyses per pathology and enabled us to observe the het-
erogeneity between all IRIS areas.

# 3. Results and discussion

## 3.1. Analysis of the correlations

Looking the health variables (Table 2), we found that the number of
<figure><img src="image_53.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4.** The Bayesian network - Conceptual map of the 178 variables: orange for pathologies, green for variables resulting from lichens measurements, purple for air pollutants, and blue for socio-economic variables. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)</figcaption></figure>

people living the same IRIS area for more than 10 years (P14_PME-N_ANEM10P) is well correlated to the relative abundance of lichen species (r = 0.70). Higher relative abundance of lichen is related to more people living in the same area at long time, and this could be explained by the benefits provided by natural amenities and green infrastructure. Indeed, urban green spaces can reduce air pollution, regulate air temperature, but also reduce noise and provide recreational, social, psychological, and aesthetic benefits (Sicard et al., 2018). We found a negative correlation between the relative abundance of lichen species and Chlorobiphenyl CB194 (r = - 0.70) while a positive correlation was found between the number of people living in the IRIS area for more than 10 years (P14_PMEN_ANEM10P) and carbon monoxide (r = 0.60), and cardiovascular diseases for 15-65 years-old people (r = 0.65). Significant correlations were found between cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (r = 0.70) for patients over 65 years-old, revealing a comorbidity which is well known by doctors (Carter et al., 2019), and also appearing in 15-65 years-old patients (r = 0.52). This is explained by the

chronicity of these pathologies as is the case with diabetes (r = 0.73). A strong correlation was observed between respiratory diseases for people >65 years-old and a dioxin-like PCB (r = 0.78) recognized for its toxicity, i.e., CB169 (Van den Berg et al., 2006). A relationship is observed (r = 0.63) between cardiovascular diseases for patients >65 years-old and the socio-economic variable "no qualification", and between mean income and exposure to the hydrochloric acid (r = - 0.65) meaning that more the households income increases less they are exposed to such pollutant. As regards bronchus and lung cancers for people >65 years-old, we observed positive relationships, in particular with CB187 (r = 0.80), TEQ-2005 (r = 0.83), 2,3,7,8-TeCDF (r = 0.86), 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF (r = 0.84), As (r = 0.78) and SO₂ (r = 0.62). Concerning bladder cancer, relations appeared between people >65 years-old and Value of Lichen Diversity (r = 0.67), CB20 (r = 0.64), and two dioxin-like PCBs i.e., CB114 (r = 0.85) and CB157 (r = 0.52).
<caption>**Table 2**</caption>

Correlation analysis (Pearson test, r value) between the environmental, socio-economic and health variables. We reported here the more significant correlations i.e. with r > 0.50.

<table><thead><tr><th>versus</th><th></th><th>r value</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="3">P14_PMEN_ANEM10P - Number of people living in the IRIS for more than 10 years</td><td>Abundance of lichen species</td><td>0.70</td></tr><tr><td>Carbon monoxide - CO</td><td>0.60</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiovascular diseases 15-65 years old</td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiovascular diseases &gt;65 years old</td><td>Respiratory diseases &gt;65 years old</td><td>0.70</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiovascular diseases 15-65 years old</td><td>Respiratory diseases 15-65 years old</td><td>0.52</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiovascular diseases 15-65 years old</td><td>Cardiovascular diseases &gt;65 years old</td><td>0.67</td></tr><tr><td>Diabetes 15-65 years old</td><td>Diabetes &gt;65 years old</td><td>0.73</td></tr><tr><td>Respiratory diseases &gt;65 years old</td><td>CB169: 3,3',4,4',5,5'-Hexachlorobiphenyl</td><td>0.78</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiovascular diseases &gt;65 years-old</td><td>No qualification at 15</td><td>0.63</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>CB187: 2,2',3,4',5,5',6'-Heptachlorobiphenyl</td><td>0.80</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>TEQ-2005</td><td>0.83</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>2,3,7,8 TeCDF</td><td>0.86</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>2,3,4,7,8 PeCDF</td><td>0.84</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>Arsenic - As</td><td>0.78</td></tr><tr><td>Bronchus and lung cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>Sulphur dioxide - SO<sub>2</sub></td><td>0.62</td></tr><tr><td>Bladder cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>Lichen diversity</td><td>0.67</td></tr><tr><td>Bladder cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>CB20: 2,3,3'-Trichlorobiphenyl</td><td>0.64</td></tr><tr><td>Bladder cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>CB114: 2,3,4,4',5'-Pentachlorobiphenyl</td><td>0.85</td></tr><tr><td>Bladder cancers &gt;65 years old</td><td>CB157: 2,3,3',4,4',5'-Hexachlorobiphenyl</td><td>0.52</td></tr><tr><td>Diabetes &gt;65 years old</td><td>Cd_p: particulate Cadmium</td><td>0.52</td></tr><tr><td>Relative abundance of lichen species</td><td>CB194: 2,2',3,3',4,4',5,5'-Octachlorobiphenyl</td><td>-0.70</td></tr><tr><td>Mean income</td><td>Hydrochloric acid</td><td>-0.65</td></tr></tbody></table>

## 3.2. Interactions between variables

To deeply investigate the interactions between pathologies, air pollutants and socio-economy, we focussed on relationships between a pathology and a type of variable (either environmental or socio-economic). Here, we focussed on the interactions between respiratory diseases for people >65 years-old and CB169, and the interactions between diabetes for patients >65 years-old and the heavy metal, cadmium (Table 2).

### 3.2.1. Interactions between respiratory diseases & CB169

We found a significant correlation (r = 0.78) between respiratory diseases for people >65 years-old and CB169 (Table 2). To investigate the interactions between variables, first the relation was spotted in the Bayesian network (Fig. 5a), then we monitored the variables (Fig. 5b), and we saw what happens at the level of their modalities (Fig. 5c). The number of modalities corresponds to the number of classes requested (K-means 5 classes). What is particularly interesting now is to force one of these classes, for example the modality corresponding to the highest number of hospital admissions (here: number of stays >51.75), which then becomes green, and to observe how the associated probabilities of CB169 are then instantly updated. Thus, we observed that if we focus on the highest numbers of stays, the values of CB169 increase, mainly for the two last modalities (e.g., evolution from 16.67 in the initial monitoring to 31.86 in Fig. 5d). Which means that when we consider the highest numbers of hospital stays recorded for respiratory pathologies in the over 65 in this territory, it is in relation with the highest values of CB169 found in the lichen surveys. The most frequent modality (44.38%) has also been forced without showing in that case notable changes in the monitoring.

### 3.2.2. Interactions between diabetes & Cd

We found a significant correlation (r = 0.52) between diabetic people >65 years-old and particulate Cadmium (Table 2). Cadmium is absorbed in food (dry/wet deposition, air/soil pollution) and can disturb insulin metabolism in the pancreas (Schwartz et al., 2003; Buha et al., 2020). This relation is very strong (Fig. 4S) for the highest modality of diabetes patients (>45.1 number of stays) and concerns a value of Cd_p between 0.214 and 0.250 µg m⁻³ (Fig. 4S). For the most frequent modality, the relation already appears with the lowest values of Cd_p (38.18% under or equal to 0.181 µg m⁻³).

## 3.3. Health profiles of the IRIS areas

For instance, in IRIS 130560101 in Martigues, the probability to find people over 65 years-old with respiratory diseases is high, approximately 50%, followed by 15-65 years-old people with cardiovascular diseases, about 35% (Fig. 6). Based on the HCA, five groups with a similar health profile can be clearly distinguished (Fig. 7). The Group 1 includes atypical IRIS areas with the highest occurrence rates for all pathologies. The second Group differs from the others by less cardiovascular, respiratory and diabetes diseases, but a higher rate of lung cancers for people over 65 years-old (Fig. 7). In Group 3, we can observe high rates of cardiovascular diseases for young people (<15 years-old) and elderly i.e., over 65 years-old (1.21 on average), higher than in the first group (0.81 on average). The same is true for respiratory diseases from the age of 15 years-old with rates almost twice as high as those of Group 1 (1.33 versus 0.70). Diabetes for young people (<15 years-old) also individualises these IRIS areas. Bronchus and lung cancers for people over 65 years-old, without reaching the values of Group 2, are also noteworthy (0.62 on average), just like bladder cancers in the same age group, without nonetheless exceeding Group 1 (0.64 on average). In Group 4, we observed more cardiovascular diseases for people over 65 years-old (1.13 on average), respiratory diseases and a lower cancer rate for people over 65 years-old (1.13, 0.45) and people <15 years-old (0.74). Finally, Group 5 includes IRIS areas with pathology rates comparatively lower than in the other Groups. It can be used as control Group “out-of-area” for model validation with less exposed people to air pollution. However, the endocrine disruptors to which the population can be exposed via pesticides can induce the same pathologies (e.g., diabetes), which could confuse the “control cases” comparisons (Evangelou et al., 2016; Mendes et al., 2021).

## 3.4. IRIS health profiles and causal factors

The causal factor of health profiles can be either environmental and/or socio-economic, and the combination of both form the pathogenic spaces (Picheral, 1983). Based on the sensitivity analyses, we distinguished the IRIS areas according to the probability of prevalence of environmental and socio-economic factors. First, we have distinguished three IRIS profiles based on a cocktail of air pollutants (Sarigiannis and Hansen, 2012; Svingen and Vinggaard, 2016) with either many HAPs (7 IRIS areas), or many PCBs (8 IRIS areas), or other pollutants (15 IRIS areas).

In the HAPs group, the number of HAPs varied by a factor two (6-12 HAPs) with a direct impact on pathologies. Indeed, the severity of pathology depends on the number of HAPs due to the carcinogenic nature of each HAP (BaP, BaA, BbF, BkF, DahA, Fluoranthene, IcdP) and to their potential noxious mixing (ATSDR, 2012). The favourable socio-economy of the IRIS “Jonquières Foulettes” (income above average) seems to make up for the residents’ exposure, similarly to the IRIS “Coudoulière” but to a lesser extent due to less numerous HAPs. Looking the cocktail of PCBs, their health impact is well characterised by e.g., bladder cancers (IRIS Plan de Fossan) even at low doses due to their toxicity (ATSDR, 2012). Finally, the category “Others” refers to air pollutants that cannot be classified in the previous categories. It includes “traditional” air pollutants such as NO₂, SO₂, hydrofluoric acid (HF) and particulate
<figure><img src="image_54.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 5. Interactions between respiratory diseases for people >65 years-old (J00J19965) & CB169.</figcaption></figure>

elements such as Zn, Cd, Cu and the PCDD PCDF.

Based on the HCA dendrogram, people living in IRIS areas classified as Group 1 (Fig. 7S) was exposed to harmful pollutants: PCDD PCDF at La Lèque, CB28 at Plan Fossan, Dibenzo (a, h)anthracene at Boudème, HF at PdB Centre and St-Jean Bergerie. In 4 of the 6 IRIS areas, socio-economy combines with air pollutants and corresponds to single-parent families. In fact, it is the prevailing variable for the IRIS "Rayettes". Within IRIS areas of the Group 2 (Fig. 8S), people are exposed to PCBs (Tassy Est, St-Pierre and St-Julien), SO₂ (Tassy Ouest) and to vanadium at much higher levels than in other IRIS areas. The IRIS "Jonquières Est" was exposed to 11 different HAPs while the IRIS "Notre Dame Paradis" was exposed to NO₂. In Group 2, socio-economy (i.e., unschooled at 15 years-old and unemployment) had a pernicious impact. The type of pollutants (PCB, vanadium) and their multiplicity (11 different HAPs) could explain the pathologies found (i.e., bronchus, lung cancers and bladder cancers) in the IRIS areas of this Group 2 (Lees, 1980; ATSDR, 2012). In Group 3 (Fig. 9S), the IRIS "Ferrière" had a similar PCBs profile like the IRIS "St-Mitre Périphérie". This IRIS area is simultaneously exposed to several pollutants (Co, ZnP, Crp, Cr6p, PCDD PCDF, HCl, BKFp) at low concentrations, except from BKFp leading to respiratory diseases. As regards the IRIS "Gaps", Hg is the most important air pollutant, followed by Co, CuP and HF, while the IRIS "Croix Sainte" is rather characterised by the presence of ZnP, followed by several pollutants of the PCB type, and As. Finally, socio-economic variables seem to have a greater impact on the IRIS "Colline" (immigrant population, single-parent families, unemployment and unschooled 15 years-old, the latter variable having an impact on

cardiovascular diseases), and Cd_p, that disrupts insulin metabolism, is the only pollutant in this IRIS area. Starting from this 4th group (Fig. 10S), the number of hospital admissions is relatively low: both IRIS areas "Canto Perdrix" and "Les Comtes Est" stand out in regard to cardiovascular diseases for people over 65 years-old, with a prevalence of BKFp for the IRIS "Canto Perdrix". Here, we observed a disadvantaged socio-economy and a seemingly deleterious cocktail for "Les Comtes Est" (DCE, V_p, Hg and HF), since the impact is also observed on respiratory diseases for people over 65 years-old. Finally, the control Group (Fig. 11S) was characterised by an overall number of pathologies lower than elsewhere, and less dangerous pollutants and/or in lower quantity than in other IRIS areas of Groups 1-4. Moreover, socio-economy being more favourable (except in the IRIS "Comtes Ouest") tends to offset the pollutants effects. This is particularly true for the IRIS "St-Mitre Centre". Nevertheless, we observed that the presence of SO₂ only had an influence on respiratory diseases in the age range 15-65 years-old within the IRIS "Figuerolles". By gathering all HCA outputs and IRIS profiles (Fig. 8), we observed HAP emissions in the north-east of the study area (Jonquières, Boudème), a vanadium and SO₂ emission in South (Lavéra, Côte Bleue), and a PCB pollution over the whole territory. In study area centre, disadvantaged socio-economy combined with the pollutants.

In this study, we highlighted some limitations. First, here the health data are related to the number of hospital admissions, instead of the number of patients. The number of patients was not available when this study was conducted. Therefore, an overestimation of the number of cases is plausible because some pathologies can necessitate several hospital admissions (in particular for bladder cancers). Likewise, as we
<figure><img src="image_55.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 6.** Sensitivity analysis for all pathologies within the IRIS area “Côte Bleue” (13560101) in Martigues. The probability for respiratory diseases for people over 65 years-old is 0.50.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_56.png" /></figure>

<table><caption>**Fig. 7.** Hierarchical Cluster Analysis - Health profiles of the 30 IRIS areas subdivided into 5 Groups.</caption><thead><tr><th>Group</th><th>Pathologies</th><th>Environmental factors</th><th>Socio-economic factors</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>High number of pathologies</td><td>PCDD-PCDF, CB28, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene</td><td>Single-parent family</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Lung cancers (&gt;15 years-old)<br>Bladder cancers (15-65 years-old)</td><td>PCBs, SO2, vanadium, 11 HAPs</td><td>Unschooled at 15 years old<br>Unemployment</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Cardiovascular diseases (&lt;15; &gt;65 years-old),<br>Diabetes &lt;15 years-old</td><td>BkF_p, Hg, Co, Cu_p, HF, Zn_p, PCBs, As, Cd_p</td><td>Immigrant population<br>Single-parent family<br>Unemployment<br>Unschooled 15 years-old</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Cardiovascular diseases (&gt;65 years-old)<br>Respiratory diseases (&lt;15; &gt;65 years-old)</td><td>BkF_p, DCE, v_p, Hg, HF</td><td>Unfavorable Socio-economy</td></tr><tr><td>5 - Control group</td><td>Low number of pathologies</td><td>Low exposure to air pollution</td><td>Favorable Socio-economy</td></tr></tbody></table>

worked at fine scale, the number of cases for some pathologies in some IRIS areas can be low and induce biases. However, Bayesian networks compare the evolution of proportion between variables, the risk of bias is minimised. By selecting annual averages for air pollutants smooth out the effects of air pollutants. Air pollutant and health data are those of 2015. The estimated effects are erroneous by omitting the lag effect of air pollutants exposure, i.e., by assuming that all effects occur in one day (Schwartz, 2000). In this study, air pollutants concentrations were

averaged from air quality monitoring stations, and we assumed that all individuals shared the same air pollution levels in the study area, therefore the individual exposure estimate is erroneous (Park and Kwan, 2017). Human mobility was also ignored by considering residential exposure, and not professional or related to daily commuting. In addition, only the outdoor exposure to air pollutants was considered while people spent about 80–90% of time in indoor environments (Laumbach et al., 2015).
<figure><img src="image_57.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 8.** Profile of IRIS areas according to the prevalence of environmental and/or socio-economic factors. The value indicates the highest probability (scale 0–1) found in the IRIS (sensitivity analyses) according to the type of factor (HAP, PCB, Others and socio-economic). Group 1 – IRIS areas characterised by an increased prevalence of hospital admissions for the whole of the pathologies studied. Group 2 – IRIS areas characterised by an increased prevalence of hospital admissions related to lung cancers (>15 years-old) and bladder cancers (15-65 years-old). Group 3 – IRIS areas characterised by an increased prevalence of hospital stays related to cardiovascular diseases (<15 and > 65 years-old) and diabetes (<15 years-old). Group 4 – IRIS areas characterised by an increased prevalence of hospital stays related to cardiovascular diseases (> 65 years-old) and respiratory diseases (<15 and > 65 years-old). Group 5 – IRIS areas characterised by a lower prevalence of “Control group” pathologies.</figcaption></figure>

Although the lichen plots are scattered over the entire study area and located according to the IRIS areas socioeconomic level, more of them would have enabled us to ascertain our results even better. Studies carried out on environmental health are most of the time criticised because of the difficulty to get to the root causes of pathologies. Another frequently heard argument is the multifactorial character of an individual's health. Furthermore, the design of these studies is most of the time of the ecological kind and can also lead to attribute to individuals the effect of pollutants measured in a space (ecological fallacy), but this argument is itself put into question (Schwartz, 1994). By taking into account a high number of variables (pollutants, pathologies, and socio-economy) which can potentially affect the citizens health and well-being, and by using a robust mathematical formalism at fine city-scale, based on conditional probabilities, we found causal factors. Thus, we have been able to bring forward several relations between exposure to xenobiotics and proven pathologies, sufficient to require an

hospital admission in 2015, and which suggest the following recommendations.

Control strategies, and local policy, must focus on reducing SO₂ emissions, as we observed health effects at very low levels, even below European and WHO standards. Companies must continue and ramp up the desulphurisation process of their installations, or, when possible, use a lower-sulphur fuel. However, SO₂ is also emitted by tankers bringing their load to the nearby “Fos-sur-Mer” industrial harbour. The use of a lower-sulphur fuel could contribute to improve the citizens health. In the study area, we observed a diffuse PCB pollution, linked to respiratory diseases for people over 65 years-old, and this major issue should be deeply investigated to take appropriate measures e.g., site remediation by phytomanagement (Aken et al., 2010; Passatore et al., 2014). We can highlight several thresholds above which certain pollutants are particularly noxious, e.g., adverse health effects (bronchus and lung cancers) can be observed for hydrofluoric acid (HF) at 0.0028 µg m⁻³ threshold
(Fig. 12.S), while exposure to particulate cadmium, between 0.214 and 0.250 µg m⁻³ (Fig. 4S) disrupts insulin metabolism for people over 65 years-old. Finally, benzo [k]fluoranthene exceeded the 0.672 µg m⁻³ threshold (Fig. 13.S), and this exceedance was associated to a high number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases for 15-65 years-old people. Specific pollutants such as chrome, chrome VI, and vanadium in their particle phase, need a continuous monitoring. Therefore, emissions of these pollutants should be reduced, when it is technically and financially possible by e.g., substitute products, less polluting industrial processes, and more effective filters.

## 4. Conclusions

The study has revealed differentiated health profiles between the different IRIS areas in Martigues conurbation, which should lead to supplying health care that would be better suited to the population needs, from a prevention perspective, and even to promote consultations with certain specialists. For example, with a cardiologist in the IRIS areas where the number of unqualified 15 years-old people is significant, as a relation was found, likely due to more difficult living or working conditions for such people. Likewise, prevention and social support measures should be taken to the benefit of single-parent families. Lastly, present-day pathologies are most of the time the result of former exposures when pollution levels were overall higher. In this study, human mobility, and exposure to indoor air pollutants, where people spend more than 80% of time, were ignored. Therefore, our estimates due to air pollutants exposure were biased. It would be interesting to obtain older measurements concerning the incriminated pollutants and redo the calculations. The industries in the study area should continue to reduce their emissions concerning the harmful air pollutants. To reduce population's exposure to air pollution, adequate mitigation measures should be implemented to reduce the emissions and concentrations in the air of air pollutants such as an update of national emissions ceilings, an introduction of electric/hybrid cars, green public transportation, regulation of fuel quality, and implementation of green infrastructure to ameliorate urban air quality at city scale (Sicard et al., 2018; Sofia et al., 2020).

## Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

## Acknowledgements

The authors thank all those with whom they have been in touch during this study, and more particularly the Conseil de Territoire du Pays de Martigues within the Métropole Aix-Marseille-Provence, and the CIAS of Pays de Martigues for their trust and support.

## Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.112059.

## Authors' contributions

Project conceptualizing, design of the study, data analysis, writing: SP, Project administration, Funding acquisition, Literature review: GL, Manuscript preparation: SP, SG, Visualization: SG, Participation in the data collection and provided technical input to the data analyses: SM, PC, Validation: SM. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

## Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not Applicable.

## Consent for publication

This manuscript does not contain any individual person's data in any form.

## Availability of data and materials

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request, excepting the health data, because the French national commission for Informatics and Freedoms (CNIL) does not allow their sharing.

## Funding

The feasibility study has been financed by ARS ACA within the framework of the AAP PRSE 2015, and the study itself by the Conseil de Territoire du Pays de Martigues within the Métropole Aix-Marseille-Provence, and the Pays de Martigues Centre Intercommunal d'Action Sociale (CIAS). Trial registration Decision DE-2017-413 authorising the Métropole d'Aix Marseille Provence to carry out the processing of personal health data for a retrospective and local environmental health study titled "Air-Health study in the Pays de Martigues territory" (Authorisation application No. 917120).

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Pérez, S., 2019. Etude AIR-SANTE en Pays de Martigues : apports de l'Intelligence Artificielle aux questions de santé environnementale. Université Côte d'Azur, Nice, France, p. 255, 2019.

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#6 - UNE UMR QUI CONTRIBUE À LA VITALITÉ ET À LA DYNAMIQUE DES INTERACTIONS ENTRE LES SCIENTIFIQUES DE SON DOMAINE

Rédacteurs

Cyrille GENRE-GRANDPIERRE (PR, Avignon Université)

&

Alain RICHAUD (MCF, Avignon Université)
Structurer et animer des débats scientifiques est une des missions qui incombent aux laboratoires de recherche. Cela passe notamment par l'organisation de séminaires, colloques et autres symposiums. Si la plupart des UMR s'acquittent avec plus ou moins d'intensité de cette mission, l'UMR ESPACE se distingue en la matière par la variété des niveaux auxquels elle intervient dans la structuration et l'animation des débats scientifiques.

# 1. Des niveaux complémentaires d'organisation de conférences

L'unité organise en effet, seule ou avec des partenaires :

- des **colloques et séminaires sur des thématiques spécifiques**. Ils peuvent être « classiquement » à destination des acteurs de la recherche et ont pour mission de faire avancer le front de la connaissance (exemples sur le site de Nice : le colloque *Smart Data Smart City*,<fnref n="23" /> à Nice en 2020, qui traitait de l'utilisation des technologies d'information et de communication dans les Smart Cities, le XXXIIIe colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie en 2017 ou la 10e Conférence Internationale de l'IDRIM, *Integrated Disaster Risk Management*, en 2019), ou être plus orientés vers un public de professionnels et d'acteurs opérationnels, en ayant alors davantage pour objectif de diffuser la connaissance et de faire évoluer les pratiques (exemple : le colloque *Cap'Alert*<fnref n="24" />, à Avignon en 2019, qui questionnait les moyens d'alerte et leur pertinence en fonction des caractéristiques des aléas et des territoires et ouvrait le débat sur « comment alerter la population dans les années à venir »)

- des **colloques non thématiques ouverts sur des domaines scientifiques** qui rassemblent une grande partie de la communauté de la géographie théorique et quantitative, à l'image du colloque SAGEO « Spatial Analysis and Geomatics »<fnref n="25" /> (Nice, 2016)

- des **conférences pluridisciplinaires portant sur des questions méthodologiques pointues**, à l'image de la conférence internationale *Spatial Accuracy*<fnref n="26" />, co-organisée avec le LISAH de Montpellier en 2016, qui portait sur les techniques d'analyse de sensibilité pour la modélisation spatiale et la gestion de l'incertitude dans les systèmes à base de connaissance

- des **colloques de réflexion sur les concepts et les pratiques de la géographie et de l'aménagement, ainsi que sur l'interface Homme-Milieu**. Outre les séminaires ERE (Espace Rencontre Espace) internes au laboratoire, on peut citer les séminaires interdisciplinaires de l'OHM Littoral Méditerranéen à Aix-en-Provence, ou le colloque *Géopoint*<fnref n="27" />, qui a lieu tous les deux ans depuis plus de 40 ans, et qui est historiquement un des piliers de la géographie théorique et quantitative en France. Par exemple, en 2016 à Lausanne sur le thème « De l'espace pour la théorie ! » et à Avignon en 2018, intitulé « Espaces citoyens. Sciences de l'espace et politique »

* des **conférences internationales à large spectre scientifique** : l'exemple du 57e colloque de l'ASRDLF (Association de Science Régionale De Langue Française) à Avignon, en septembre 2021

# 2. Zoom sur le 57e colloque de l'ASRDLF

L'UMR ESPACE sait aussi rassembler largement au-delà de la seule communauté des géographes/aménageurs/géomaticiens et s'adapter à son environnement de recherche. L'organisation, en septembre 2021, à Avignon Université, du 57e colloque de l'ASRDLF<fnref n="28" /> (Association de Science Régionale De Langue Française), avec pour thème « Territoire(s) et Numérique », en est un exemple (Figure 2).

<footnote n="23">²³ https://imredd.fr/en/sdsc2020/#index</footnote>

<footnote n="24">²⁴ https://cap-alert2019.sciencesconf.org/resource/page/id/3</footnote>

<footnote n="25">²⁵ https://sageo2016.sciencesconf.org/</footnote>

<footnote n="26">²⁶ https://colloque.inrae.fr/spatial-accuracy2016/Partners</footnote>

<footnote n="27">²⁷ http://www.geopoint.space/</footnote>

<footnote n="28">²⁸ https://asrdlf2021.org/</footnote>
Le colloque annuel de l'ASRDLF, association de langue française fondée en 1961 et qui compte plus de 1 000 membres, est une « institution » dans le paysage européen des sciences régionales. Celui d'Avignon qui s'est tenu en présentiel a, malgré la pandémie et les restrictions de visas, rassemblé plus de 200 participants (ce qui était inespéré pendant cette période particulière), dont 20% d'étrangers (Suisse, Belgique, Allemagne, Roumanie, Tunisie, etc.). Quarante-trois sessions ont été organisées pour 191 présentations.

Il a mobilisé les membres des trois sites universitaires du laboratoire. Seize communications ont été proposées par des membres d'ESPACE et cinq membres du laboratoire ont présidés des sessions.

Les sessions proposées étaient soit :

- des sessions récurrentes du colloque : Méthodes et modélisation ; Ressources et facteurs de la croissance régionale et urbaine soutenable ; Concurrence spatiale, économie publique ; Fiscalité locale et territoriale...

- des sessions spéciales proposées par la communauté des sciences régionales : Production Agricole, action publique et alimentation des villes ; Géographie du mécontentement ; Territoires en décroissance ; Le financement de l'action publique local, etc.

- des sessions spécifiques à la thématique du colloque : Massification des données et production de la connaissance territoriale ; Numérique et identités territoriales ; Numérique et optimisation de l'espace ; Numérique et démocratie locale ; Big data et production de la connaissance, etc.

L'organisation de ce colloque « Territoire(s) et Numérique » par l'UMR ESPACE à Avignon Université n'est pas fortuite. Outre le fait qu'une telle manifestation apporte naturellement une grande visibilité au laboratoire et permet à ses membres de tisser des relations avec des partenaires rencontrés moins fréquemment (économistes spatiaux par exemple), cela illustre aussi la capacité de l'UMR ESPACE à se positionner stratégiquement dans l'environnement de recherche prôné par ses tutelles. En effet, la politique scientifique d'Avignon Université se structure historiquement autour de deux axes : Agrosciences d'une part et Culture, Patrimoine et Société Numérique d'autre part, dont relève notamment la FR AGORANTIC<fnref n="29" />. Organiser une manifestation d'ampleur internationale comme le colloque de l'ASRDLF et choisir comme thème « Territoire(s) et Numérique » est donc un moyen à la fois de réfléchir à une problématique centrale qui porte sur ce que le numérique fait aux sociétés et aux territoires, également de conforter l'ancrage du laboratoire au sein de sa tutelle avignonnaise.

<figure><img src="image_58.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2. Vue du site internet du 57e colloque de l'ASRDLF à Avignon, en septembre 2021</figcaption></figure>

Organiser des évènements pour un public académique issu de diverses disciplines, mais aussi à destination des professionnels, autour d'objets scientifiques communs thématiques, comme méthodologiques, qui rassemblent des communautés de géographes aménageurs, géomaticiens, modélisateurs et qui ont une dimension réflexive sur les concepts, les théories et les pratiques de nos disciplines, constitue assurément une des singularités d'ESPACE.

<footnote n="29">²⁹ https://agorantic.univ-avignon.fr/presentation/</footnote>
#7 - UNE UMR QUI ÉCLAIRE ET AIDE À LA DÉCISION ET À L'ACTION

Rédactrices

Nathalie DUBUS (MCF, Université Grenoble Alpes)

&

Christine VOIRON (PR, Université Côte d'Azur)
« Eclairer là où l'on ne regarde pas et fournir les lunettes pour aider à voir ». Cette métaphore, empruntée à Jean-Marc Offner, illustre parfaitement le parti adopté dans le cadre de recherches menées en partenariat avec des collectivités, des entreprises et des acteurs de la société civile. ESPACE s'est emparé de questions essentielles, qui interpellent la science, la société et l'action publique, telles que les mutations socio-environnementales en cours, la capacité d'adaptation des espaces au changement global, les réponses des territoires aux défis des transitions, etc. Autant de questions qui requièrent de nouvelles articulations entre la recherche géographique et l'action collective, et qui sont ainsi devenues des objets d'étude, traités sous des angles originaux et par des méthodes inédites : géogouvernance, géoprospective, hybridation des savoirs et des modèles, analyse opérationnelle des résiliences de type environnemental, morphologique, territorial.

# 1. Originalité et spécificité

La conduite de la recherche en partenariat avec des acteurs locaux se doit de répondre à un certain nombre d'exigences. Celles-ci ont alors été analysées à travers les retours d'expériences et par une approche réflexive sur les pratiques de la recherche, initiée au sein d'ESPACE. Les enseignements retirés, couplés à l'objectif premier de ce type de recherche, qui est de mettre la connaissance scientifique au service de l'action collective, ont permis de jeter les bases d'une démarche reproductible, qui sert de cadre à la conduite de projets comme aux expertises (Axe « Méthodologies des spatialités »).

<figure><img src="image_59.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3. Production de connaissances scientifiques intelligibles, assimilables et appropriables</figcaption></figure>

Cette démarche (cf. Figure 3) est axée sur l'exigence d'une représentation de la connaissance produite qui soit assimilable et appropriable par les parties prenantes, en veillant à rendre intelligible la complexité des dynamiques spatio-temporelles étudiées. La ligne directrice consiste à :

1. Privilégier le point de vue spatial comme outil de médiation, à tous les stades de la recherche, de l'entrée dans la problématique à la cartographie des résultats (projets RADHY-BUËCH, TRAJECTOIRES);

2. Faire interagir scientifiques, citoyens et acteurs publics dans des processus de co-construction des savoirs territoriaux, via la géogouvernance (projets CATIMINI, OUIGEF, jeu sérieux foncier ALTERÉ) et la science participative (projet HYDROPOP-2);

3. Porter un regard scientifique neuf par l'inventivité conceptuelle - rétentivité, espace à enjeu, changement, résilience morphologique, écosystème territorial de l'électromobilité,
etc. La conceptualisation opérée dans le cadre de travaux académiques (recherches doctorales et HDR, notamment) est ensuite opérationnalisée en collaboration avec des partenaires non académiques (collectivité territoriale, club d'entreprises, ADEME, EDF, etc.) selon les projets considérés et les degrés d'intrication entre les partenaires (projets POPSU Métropole Nice Côte d'Azur, MODESTE) ;

4. Inventer des démarches modélisatrices en contexte d'incomplétude de la connaissance relatifs à l'anticipation des futurs possibles, aux chemins de transitions, aux potentiels d'adoption d'innovations (projets CATIMINI, REACTIV' cité, AutoCoPartage) ;

5. Nourrir la réflexion des acteurs par la co-production d'informations pertinentes issues de données de terrain inédites sur la végétation, le climat, l'hydrologie (Ex. bases de données sur les zones arctique et subarctique, projets RICOCHET, OSAMA, CliMedSCALE, Interreg CONCERT-EAUX, PSDR4), sur les perceptions, les modes de vie et les pratiques (Perception des risques côtiers et de l'adaptation par les acteurs territoriaux dans l'étude PRECOAST, bases de données sur le foncier et l'immobilier) ;

6. Mettre à disposition la connaissance issue des analyses et modèles (exemple : les formes physiques du e-commerce dans le bassin de vie d'Avignon - programme Ville Productive du PUCA) ; et accompagner dans le temps leur appropriation par des outils dédiés : guides, sites et plateformes sur le Web, dashboards, webinaires, ateliers participatifs, outils de simulation interactifs en libre accès, MOOC et SPOC.

## 2. Quelques retombées opérationnelles de la recherche et de l'aide à l'action

Les exemples de recherche appliquée d'ESPACE sont nombreux. Nous en présentons quelques-uns de nature à illustrer cette expertise qui participe fortement au profil d'activité du laboratoire.

Les cartographies climatiques à fine résolution spatiale sur les Alpes-Maritimes, et les projections 1986-2055 et 2081-2100, à partir de la méthode de descente d'échelle climatique statistique (N. Martin), servent de base aux PCAET du département (Métropole NCA, SCoT'Ouest<fnref n="30" />).

La grille d'évaluation de la résilience morphologique (G. Fusco) est utilisée pour évaluer la résilience des formes urbaines de l'OAP Plaine du Var (Métropole NCA<fnref n="31" />).

L'outil interactif Homme-Machine pour l'orientation spatiale des malvoyants (D. Josselin et S. Boularouk) a été co-construit avec la fondation Frédéric Gaillanne<fnref n="32" /> d'éducation de chiens pour malvoyants.

Le Système expert spatialisé déterminant le potentiel d'adoption des territoires à la mobilité décarbonée (CATIMINI, C. Voiron-Canicio et G. Voiron) est référencé par le Ministère de la Transition Ecologique dans le guide à l'attention des collectivités « Schémas directeurs pour les infrastructures de recharge pour véhicules électriques », appliqué en Nouvelle Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, et Hauts de France.

En complément, les membres de l'UMR répondent favorablement aux sollicitations émanant d'organismes publics et privés qui sont multiples : expertises nationales et internationales, notamment prospectives (MED 2050³³ du Plan Bleu/ONU, mise en réseau des aires protégées de l'Arc Alpin, projet ESPON LinkPAs, intervention à la cellule R&D de la SNCF), nominations à divers conseils scientifiques : parcs naturels nationaux et régionaux (3), institutions publiques (Ministère des Affaires étrangères, Pôle de compétitivité SAFE<fnref n="34" />, SRADDET<fnref n="35" /> de la Région SUD, CAUE<fnref n="36" />,

<footnote n="30">³⁰ http://scotouest.com/?page_id=975</footnote>

<footnote n="31">³¹ https://www.nicecotedazur.org/habitat-urbanisme/evolution-du-plum/plum-approuv%C3%A9-le-25-10-2019</footnote>

<footnote n="32">³² https://www.fondationfg.org/</footnote>

<footnote n="33">³³ https://med2050.org/</footnote>

<footnote n="34">³⁴ https://www.safecluster.com/</footnote>

<footnote n="35">³⁵ https://connaissance-territoire.maregionsud.fr/sraddet-avenir-de-nos-territoires/le-schema-regional/</footnote>

<footnote n="36">³⁶ https://www.fncaue.com/caue-et-urcaue-de-paca/</footnote>
plateforme « Mon Littoral »<fnref n="37" />), et, à la demande de l'Institut de la Ville Durable, portage scientifique de la formation continue « Stratégie de résilience territoriale », destinée aux décideurs et ingénieurs du public et du privé, délivrée depuis 2018, en partenariat avec l'École des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris et la start-up Opticits de Barcelone.

## 3. Zoom sur une publication méthodologique internationale

Ce pan d'activité d'ESPACE s'accompagne de publications méthodologiques.

Ainsi, l'ouvrage *Ecosystem and Territorial Résilience: a geoprospective approach*, (co-édité par E. Garbolino et C. Voiron-Canicio), publié par Elsevier en 2020 (372 pages), est emblématique de la démarche géoprospective portée par l'UMR ESPACE, de son apport en recherche-action, et de son rayonnement international dans le domaine public et privé. Les 13 chapitres qui le composent ont été co-rédigés par 30 auteurs de différentes disciplines qui se rejoignent sur les méthodes de géoprospective formalisées par ESPACE, dont 5 sont rattachés à ESPACE et 7 appartiennent à des institutions étrangères (universités, ministère de l'environnement du Mexique, Commission européenne), à la Métropole de Lyon ainsi qu'à un bureau d'études. Ces acteurs non académiques y expliquent les raisons des collaborations de recherche qu'ils ont souhaitées nouer, et leurs retombées en matière de prospective et de planification.

<figure><img src="image_60.png" /></figure>

<footnote n="37">³⁷ https://www.monlittoral.fr/</footnote>
#8 - UNE UMR QUI FORME PAR ET POUR LA RECHERCHE

Rédacteurs

Julien ANDRIEU (MCF-HDR, Université Côte d'Azur)

&

Cyrille GENRE-GRANDPIERRE (PR, Avignon Université)
L'UMR ESPACE se caractérise par un lien très fort entre recherche et enseignement.

# 1. Connexion entre activités scientifiques et pédagogiques au sein de l'UMR

Cette forte connexion entre recherche et enseignement transparaît notamment à travers les cours, de la L1 aux M2, dispensés, d'une part par les enseignants-chercheurs membres de l'unité, dont certains pilotent en outre des masters proposés sur les 3 sites universitaires, et d'autre part par le personnel CNRS : DR et CR bien entendu, mais aussi par certains personnels d'appui, qui interviennent dans les formations (exemple : cours de cartographie et statistiques en L3 et M1 à Avignon, dispensés par Mathieu Coulon, IE travaillant notamment pour la revue Mappemonde). Tous veillent à intégrer très rapidement dans les maquettes de cours les résultats de leurs recherches, qu'ils soient thématiques ou méthodologiques. On peut par exemple citer l'UE « l'optimisation dans la décision spatiale » du master 2 GEOTER, qui reprend les développements les plus récents réalisés dans l'axe « Méthodologie des spatialités », renforçant ainsi l'originalité de la formation.

Si le master Structures et Dynamiques Spatiales, qui était commun aux différents sites de l'UMR, n'existe plus (la dernière évaluation HCERES avait pointé la fragilité de ses effectifs), les enseignements communs à l'échelle de l'UMR n'ont pour autant pas disparu. En effet, dans les 3 masters de Nice, Aix-Marseille et Avignon, les étudiants choisissant « l'option recherche » ont la possibilité de suivre hors de leur site de rattachement, deux semaines d'enseignement qui portent sur les savoir et savoir faire les plus discriminants de chaque site de l'UMR. Ces interrelations permettent d'élargir l'offre de formation et de mieux préparer les étudiants au doctorat en leur faisant découvrir les ressources spécifiques présentes sur chaque site.

Outre ces éléments généraux, trois exemples permettent de matérialiser ce lien fort enseignement-recherche et la logique de l'enseignement par et pour la recherche présente à ESPACE.

# 2. Une participation massive de l'UMR ESPACE à l'opération « Fabriques de la Connaissance » de la Région Sud (PACA)

Chaque année, la Région PACA finance des projets de recherche dans le cadre de son programme « Fabriques de la connaissance ». Ces recherches visent à combler des déficits de connaissance ou d'expertise, pour mieux définir et articuler les stratégies d'aménagement aux différentes échelles territoriales.

<figure><img src="image_61.png" /></figure>

Les projets de recherche soumis par ESPACE dans le cadre de ce programme sont très fréquemment sélectionnés et les travaux menés mobilisent le plus souvent des étudiants de master, soit dans le cadre de projets étudiants s'inscrivant dans leur maquette de formation, soit dans le cadre de stages rémunérés. C'est l'occasion pour les étudiants d'expérimenter ce qu'est la recherche, en mettant en pratique leurs connaissances et compétences. Les résultats de ces travaux sont mis en ligne sur le site de la Région<fnref n="38" />, ils peuvent être publiés dans la « Focale régionale »<fnref n="39" /> ou faire l'objet de productions scientifiques (article cosigné dans la revue québéquoise Geomatica). Le projet « Amélioration et diffusion de connaissance de l'écosystème vélo lié à l'Eurovélo 8 pour en développer l'usage pour le tourisme » (réalisé en 2019)<fnref n="40" />, auquel ont participé simultanément les

<footnote n="38">³⁸ https://connaissance-territoire.maregionsud.fr/parcours-thematiques/les-partenariats-detudes-et-expertise/les-fabriques-de-la-connaissance/</footnote>

<footnote n="39">³⁹ https://connaissance-territoire.maregionsud.fr/fileadmin/user_upload/Focale/La_Focale_Regionale_8_web_1_.pdf</footnote>

<footnote n="40">⁴⁰ https://connaissance-territoire.maregionsud.fr/connaissance-du-territoire/la-bibliotheque-detudes/detail-etudes/fiche/lecosysteme-velo-lie-a-leurovelo-8/</footnote>
étudiants des 3 masters GEAD<fnref n="41" /> (à Aix), GEOPRAD<fnref n="42" /> (à Nice) et GEOTER<fnref n="43" /> (à Avignon), illustre bien
à la fois le lien entre formation et recherche et l'intérêt d'une UMR multisites régionale. Il
s'agissait en effet de collecter sur le terrain (de la frontière italienne au Gard) des informations
et données liées à l'EUROVELO 8⁴⁴ (réparateurs vélos, tables de pique-nique etc.) et de les mettre
en ligne sur la plateforme OpenStreetMap, qui alimente de nombreuses applications dédiées au
tourisme à vélo. Le fait d'impliquer des étudiants localisés à Nice, Aix et Avignon a permis de
répartir la tâche et de traiter la totalité du linéaire de l'EV8 en Région Sud. D'autres projets du
même type à l'échelle régionale (géodatadays sur les services de transport public par exemple)
n'ont pu être réalisés que parce que l'UMR est présente via ses 3 sites universitaires sur toute la
Région Sud.

En définitive, ce sont 10 projets du programme « Fabriques de la Connaissance »<fnref n="45" /> qui ont été sélectionnés entre 2016 et 2021 (tous sites d'ESPACE confondus), ayant permis de financer et de former pas moins de 24 stagiaires, pour la plupart issus de Masters de Géographie.

3. L'UMR ESPACE contribue à la spécialisation de l'offre de formation des établissements de tutelle à travers les EUR

Les EUR (Écoles Universitaires de Recherche) proposent des offres de formations innovantes, pluridisciplinaires et très articulées avec la recherche, occupant une place croissante dans les projets d'établissements. L'UMR ESPACE est très présente dans ce nouveau paysage de l'ESR et contribue à orienter significativement les projets des tutelles.

Ainsi, Julien Andrieu est co-fondateur de l'EUR ODYSSEE<fnref n="46" /> (Université Côte d'Azur), qui propose une offre de formation articulant les sciences de l'Homme et de la Société en lien avec les sciences de l'environnement. L'EUR couvre, entre autres, les champs des dynamiques de la société, mais aussi de la transition socio-environnementale, de l'avenir climatique et énergétique de la planète ou encore de l'anticipation du devenir des territoires face aux enjeux du développement durable. Parmi les 12 parcours de master proposés par l'EUR, trois sont portés par des membres de l'UMR : *Parcours Geoprospective et Aménagement pour la Durabilité des Territoires* ; *Gestion de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable* ; *Air : Pollution atmosphérique, changement climatique, impacts sanitaires, énergies renouvelables*. La création de cette EUR démontre aussi la capacité d'ESPACE à interagir avec les instances de l'université dans les prises de décision stratégiques alliant recherche et formation.

De même, Cyrille Genre-Grandpierre et Didier Josselin ont rédigé et porté pour Avignon Université le projet d'EUR « *INTERMEDIUS* » soumis dans le cadre du PIA 3. Cette EUR, regroupant 8 laboratoires, dont 2 de sciences exactes, traitant des inter-relations entre le numérique et les processus de création, médiation, décision et régulation (« ce que le numérique fait aux territoires et à la société ») a été bien évaluée par l'ANR, mais non retenue pour être financée. Avignon Université a néanmoins décidé de la mettre en place dès 2022 sur fonds propres. Le recrutement récent par l'université d'une chargée de mission venant épauler le directeur de l'EUR (Didier Josselin), va permettre de finaliser la structuration de l'offre de formation, ainsi que les orientations de recherche à venir, en lien avec les SHS.

A travers ces deux exemples d'EUR, on mesure bien le poids de l'UMR ESPACE et sa capacité à orienter durablement les projets des établissements, à l'interface entre l'enseignement et la recherche.

<footnote n="41">⁴¹ https://formations.univ-amu.fr/fr/master/5HGA</footnote>

<footnote n="42">⁴² https://univ-cotedazur.fr/formation/offre-de-formation/geoprospective-amenagement-et-durabilite-des-territoires-geoprad</footnote>

<footnote n="43">⁴³ https://univ-avignon.fr/rechercher-une-formation/master-geographie-geomatique-et-projets-territoriaux-1258.kjsp</footnote>

<footnote n="44">⁴⁴ https://fr.eurovelo.com/ev8</footnote>

<footnote n="45">⁴⁵ https://connaissance-territoire.maregionsud.fr/fileadmin/user_upload/Magazine-mmsh-pages-20_mai_BD.pdf</footnote>

<footnote n="46">⁴⁶ https://odyssee.univ-cotedazur.fr/</footnote>
## 4. Doctorant à l'UMR ESPACE Nice, puis MCF à l'UMR ESPACE Avignon

L'encadrement doctoral est un élément central dans la politique du laboratoire et constitue le principal lien entre formation et recherche. Parmi ces thèses, un exemple individuel permet d'illustrer que l'UMR ESPACE forme par et pour la recherche : le parcours de Matthieu Vignal. Après avoir été formé dès la L1 de géographie à Nice, Matthieu a soutenu brillamment en 2020 une thèse intitulée « L'impact du changement global sur la flore du Sud-Est de la France : Modélisation multiscalaire de la répartition de 25 espèces à l'horizon 2100 par la dynamique de population », sous la direction de Julien Andrieu. Cette thèse est l'un des points forts illustrant la recherche de l'axe B du projet scientifique. La qualité de cette thèse, notamment du point de vue de l'innovation méthodologique et de son inscription dans les défis sociétaux actuels, a permis à Matthieu d'être auditionné sur de nombreux postes de MCF, pour finalement choisir le poste de géographie physique quantitative proposé à Avignon.

Au-delà de ce bel exemple d'intégration à ESPACE qui permet d'assurer la transmission des connaissances et de maintenir l'identité scientifique d'ESPACE, l'examen du devenir des doctorants indique la grande variété des débouchés de nos formations doctorales, dans les milieux académiques, privés ou dans les collectivités, où continuent de percoler les méthodes et les outils développés et enseignés par l'UMR ESPACE.
#9 - UNE UMR QUI VULGARISE ET DISSÉMINE DES CONNAISSANCES VERS LA SOCIÉTÉ

Rédacteurs

Johnny DOUVINET (PR, Avignon Université)

&

Karine EMSELLEM (MCF, Université Côte d'Azur)
Une partie des activités de l'UMR ESPACE est consacrée à la dissémination et la vulgarisation des recherches qui sont menées par ses membres.

# 1. Illustration de la démarche de dissémination des connaissances scientifiques au sein d'ESPACE : l'alerte

Un article publié dans la revue *Sciences et Avenir*<fnref n="47" /> en novembre 2021 a été choisi pour illustrer la démarche de dissémination. Cet article est le fruit d'un travail collectif, impliquant plusieurs membres de l'UMR : 2 enseignants-chercheurs (J. Douvinet, K. Emsellem), 1 jeune docteur (E. Bopp), 1 post-doctorante (C. Cavalière), 3 stagiaires financés en Master 2 (A. César, T. Jezierski, L. Roussel), mais aussi des collègues d'autres établissements (B. Gisclard, K. Weiss) ou des acteurs privés (G. Martin, L. Pinganaud). C'est dans le cadre du projet Cap-4-Multi-Canal'Alert<fnref n="48" /> (2020-2021), financé par le programme ANR « JOP 2024 », que cette publication a été réalisée. Le format très court des pages publiées dans cette revue, spécialisée dans l'actualité scientifique à destination du grand public, a nécessité plusieurs discussions de rédaction, notamment pour définir le niveau adéquat du discours, scientifique et opérationnel.

Divers événements survenus en 2021 (feux de forêt, inondations rapides) ont souligné à quel point il était urgent d'alerter la population dans des délais adaptés (ni trop tôt, ni trop tard), et avec des messages explicites sur les conduites à tenir. Attendue au plus tard en juin 2022 sur l'ensemble de la métropole et les territoires d'outre-mer, la plateforme FR-Alert permettra la diffusion d'une alerte par messages textuels sur les téléphones des individus, localisés en temps réel. La diffusion cellulaire (CB) consiste à envoyer une notification sur les smartphones, sur un réseau 4G, et elle s'achève en quelques secondes, quelle que soit la taille de la population alertée. Elle permettrait de contacter 81% des Français (Figure 4). Le LB-SMS consiste à envoyer l'alerte par SMS localisé, sur un réseau 2G minimum, sans distinction avec d'autres SMS classiques. Si 94,8% des Français seraient potentiellement atteignables (Figure 4), l'effet de congestion sur les réseaux peut toutefois allonger le temps de diffusion, et les LB-SMS ne sont pas préconisés en cas d'urgence massive immédiate. Mais en hybridant ces canaux autour d'un standard international (le CAP, Common Alerting Protocol), le but est de rendre l'alerte ajustable et adaptable, et de tirer profit des avantages de chaque solution.

<figure><img src="image_62.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4. Couverture théorique d'une alerte sur la 4G (pour la diffusion cellulaire) ou sur les réseaux 2G, 3G et 4G en métropole (pour la diffusion de SMS géolocalisés) - Sciences et Avenir © 2021</figcaption></figure>

<footnote n="47">⁴⁷ https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/high-tech/moderniser-l-alerte-aux-populations-en-france-des-attendus-considerables_158514</footnote>

<footnote n="48">⁴⁸ https://capalert.univ-avignon.fr/</footnote>
## 2. Indicateurs factuels de portée

Il demeure difficile de savoir avec précision combien de personnes ont lu cet article, au format papier ou sur le site internet. En théorie, *Sciences et Avenir* affiche une audience globale sur Internet de plus 1,960 million de visiteurs uniques (576 K internautes / 953 K mobinautes / 435 K tablonautes). Elle est imprimée à 235 000 exemplaires, pour une audience de 3,261 millions de lecteurs. Cette revue a été choisie parce qu'elle valorise les travaux de recherche avec une tonalité opérationnelle et qu'elle offre une culture indispensable pour comprendre, prévoir et agir. C'est aussi la presse la plus lue dans cet univers.

A la suite de la publication, plusieurs mails ont été reçus, pour souligner la qualité du papier, mais aussi, pour suggérer des pistes de réflexion, pas forcément imaginées par l'équipe. Ainsi :

1. une entreprise nous a sollicité pour travailler sur le contenu des messages à panneaux variables (OXIALIVE<fnref n="49" />) ;

2. un lecteur nous a indiqué qu'une personne autiste, par exemple victime du syndrome d'Asperger, avec troubles de l'attention et quelques hypersensibilités sensorielles, pouvait avoir du mal à comprendre les mots d'un message ;

3. la responsable pédagogique d'un Master 2 (Gestion des Risques Sécurité et Sûreté) nous a demandé d'intervenir sur cette question à partir de la rentrée 2022.

Ces retombées sont originales ou ouvrent des perspectives autant en termes d'exploration scientifique que d'impact sociétal.

## 3. Autres productions transversales de l'UMR à destination du monde non académique

Si l'on se réfère au fichier agrégeant les actions de vulgarisation et de dissémination scientifiques (tableau « Données de production de l'UMR »), plusieurs chiffres symbolisent la force de la médiatisation des travaux de l'UMR (sur la période 2016-2021) :

- 13 produits de médiation grand public (dont 3 vidéos YouTube, 5 conférences)

- 18 articles dans des revues techniques ou opérationnelles<fnref n="50" />

- 25 émissions de radio, TV ou articles dans la presse écrite (ex : 20 minutes, France 3, France Bleu, France Culture) ;

- 48 invitations à des débats et conférences sur les relations Sciences et Sociétés

À noter également, la participation non négligeable des jeunes chercheurs dans cette démarche, qui montre à quel point la valorisation sociétale de la recherche est une pratique ancrée et partagée au sein d'ESPACE.

<figure><img src="image_63.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_64.png" /></figure>

52

## 4. Une médiation scientifique devenue une action spécifique de l'unité

Si l'UMR ESPACE porte une attention toute particulière à ces activités de vulgarisation, c'est parce qu'une partie des travaux de recherche de l'UMR traite de la circulation des connaissances scientifiques, dans des perspectives de co-productions entre acteurs (chercheurs, citoyens, élus, techniciens, etc.), mais aussi d'appropriation et de diffusion de savoirs scientifiques spatiaux. Ainsi, l'action TACTIC (Transfert de connaissances territoriales complexes), initiée dans le projet scientifique actuel, va donner naissance à de nouvelles réflexions dans le prochain contrat quinquennal. Elle interroge la façon dont les savoirs spatiaux sont co-construits et l'apport des interactions entre chercheurs et membres de la société. Ces travaux de recherche vont donc au-delà d'une simple dissémination, puisqu'ils apportent aussi une dimension réflexive sur la vulgarisation au sens large, tout en permettant de questionner l'utilité et l'utilisation des connaissances territoriales produites.

<footnote n="49">⁴⁹ https://www.oxialive.fr/</footnote>

<footnote n="50">⁵⁰ Assises de la Transition Écologique et Citoyenne Alpes-Maritimes Alpes du Sud 2018
https://peertube.scic-tetris.org/videos/watch/b393cfa5-351a-41a1-be92-996922d58deb</footnote>
#10 - UNE UMR QUI COLLECTE, GÉRE, TRAITE ET DIFFUSE DES INFORMATIONS SCIENTIFIQUES

Rédacteurs

Pierre-Alain AYRAL (IR, CNRS)

&

Didier JOSSELIN (DR, CNRS)
L'UMR ESPACE est très impliquée dans la collecte, le traitement et la diffusion d'informations scientifiques, dans le cadre de la science ouverte respectant autant que faire se peut les principes du FAIR data : Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable.

# 1. Le partage des données et des informations scientifiques à ESPACE

Cette volonté de partage des données et des informations scientifiques transparaît à plusieurs niveaux :

- **Soutien de revues numériques en double accès libre sur internet**, gratuites pour les auteurs comme pour les lecteurs. L'UMR ESPACE exerce une double action, régulière et assumée, envers ces revues. En effet, même si dans le système bibliométrique actuel, la part belle est faite aux revues classiques payantes, soit pour les auteurs (en « open-access »), soit pour les lecteurs, ESPACE fait le pari que l'avenir est à la libération des flux d'information scientifique, en phase avec la *Déclaration de San Francisco*<fnref n="51" />, rappelée notamment par l'HGERES lors du lancement de cette nouvelle campagne d'évaluation de la vague C et impliquant des formes de reconnaissance plus équilibrées de la science.

- D'une part, les membres de l'unité ont publié de nombreux articles dans *Cybergéo* (en moyenne 2 par an sur la période 2016-2021, revue en Q4).

- D'autre part, ESPACE porte quatre revues essentiellement en langue française, dont trois du même modèle économique (dit « Diamant ») : *Mappemonde*<fnref n="52" />, *Journal of Interdisciplinary Methodologies and Issues in Science*<fnref n="53" /> et *Méditerranée*<fnref n="54" />. Pour les deux premières revues, l'UMR est entièrement responsable de l'édition et de la publication des numéros, avec notamment, à l'interface des flux, une ingénieure dédiée à cette activité (L. Faure) et jusqu'en 2022, un ingénieur cartographe à temps partiel pour Mappemonde (M. Coulon). ESPACE est impliqué dans une quatrième revue, en open access standard : *Risques Urbains*<fnref n="55" />.

- **Production de données géographiques.** Le laboratoire ESPACE se distingue également par sa propension à gérer et à alimenter des bases de données ou à produire des données socio-géographiques. Cela se traduit à plusieurs niveaux :

- **Gestion de Geo-catalogue** : ESPACE, via notamment la Direction de l'Observatoire Hommes-Milieux Littoral Méditerranéen (OHM-LM<fnref n="56" />) entre 2012 et 2020 (S. Robert), a créé un géo-catalogue avec l'appui de ressources informatiques de la fédération de recherche ECCOREV<fnref n="57" /> et du labEx OT-Med<fnref n="58" /> ; M.-L. Trémélo gère ainsi les données en sciences de l'environnement produites dans le cadre des projets labellisés par l'OHM-LM, en concordance avec les choix techniques et scientifiques du LabEx DRIIHM<fnref n="59" /> (INEE CNRS) ;

- **Alimentation de bases de données collaboratives** : ESPACE produit un ensemble de méta-données décrivant les corpus de l'OHM-LM, contribue à plusieurs Bases de Données internationales (Universités de Yakutsk et Kaunas en Arctique) et alimente depuis de nombreuses années la Base de Données des Observatoires en Hydrologie

<footnote n="51">⁵¹ https://sfdora.org/read/</footnote>

<footnote n="52">⁵² https://journals.openedition.org/mappemonde/</footnote>

<footnote n="53">⁵³ https://jimis.episciences.org/
https://www.inshs.cnrs.fr/fr/journal-interdisciplinary-methodologies-and-issues-science</footnote>

<footnote n="54">⁵⁴ https://journals.openedition.org/mediterranee/</footnote>

<footnote n="55">⁵⁵ http://www.openscience.fr/Risques-urbains</footnote>

<footnote n="56">⁵⁶ http://www.ohm-littoral-mediterraneen.fr/</footnote>

<footnote n="57">⁵⁷ https://www.eccorev.fr/</footnote>

<footnote n="58">⁵⁸ https://www.otmed.fr/</footnote>

<footnote n="59">⁵⁹ https://www.driihm.fr/</footnote>
de l'INRAE<fnref n="60" /> (BDOH), via l'Observatoire Hydro-Météorologique Cévennes Vivarais (OHM-CV), connectée à Théia-OZCAR<fnref n="61" />.

o Diffusion libre de corpus de données : l'UMR a mis en place une politique de diffusion de ses méthodes et données sous DOIs normalisés (via Nakala).

- **Autres vecteurs de diffusion scientifique.** Les membres d'ESPACE inventent des méthodes d'analyse spatiale et les partagent via leur code source en ligne sur Zenodo (travaux de J. Perez). Pour soutenir et structurer ce type d'initiative, l'unité a créé un groupe de travail intersites dont le but est de recenser, structurer, mutualiser et rationaliser la production et l'usage des données du laboratoire, conformément au RGPD. Il s'agit également de promouvoir et d'encourager les pratiques de science ouverte et de faire le lien entre les publications et les données ayant permis d'obtenir les résultats de recherche.

## 2. Zoom sur la plateforme expérimentale de l'implantation cévenole

Débutée sur le site historique du Mont-Lozère au début des années 1980, l'implantation cévenole de l'UMR ESPACE développe aujourd'hui une instrumentation dédiée à l'observation hydro-socio-climatique, souvent sur le long terme (plus de 40 ans), sur 8 sites localisés dans les Cévennes. Avec des questions de recherche interdisciplinaires à l'interface homme-milieu, centrées sur les extrêmes hydrologiques (crues et étiages), le changement climatique et les changements globaux, les observations réalisées invitent à des collaborations au sein et à l'extérieur de l'UMR ESPACE. Plusieurs sites sont intégrés à l'Observatoire Hydrométéorologique Cévennes Vivarais (OHM-CV<fnref n="62" />, ORE de l'INSU) et dans le Site Atelier Rivières Cévenoles<fnref n="63" /> de la ZABR (Zone Atelier Bassin du Rhône<fnref n="64" />, une des ZA de l'INEE). À ce titre, l'implantation Cévenole de l'UMR ESPACE fait partie intégrante de la Très Grande Infrastructures de Recherche OZCAR (Observatoire de la Zone Critique, Applications et Recherche<fnref n="65" />) et du Réseau des Zones Ateliers (RZA), ainsi que de l'infrastructure de recherche européenne eLTER (Long-term Ecosystem Research in Europe<fnref n="66" />). Elle est également associée au projet de PEPR Monenvi (soumis dans le cadre du PIA4 et actuellement en seconde phase d'évaluation) et au master site P3M porté par les laboratoires de recherche d'Occitanie, candidat aux plateformes internationales d'OZCAR (cf. Figure 5).

<footnote n="60">⁶⁰ https://bdoh.irstea.fr/OHM-CV/</footnote>

<footnote n="61">⁶¹ https://www.theia-land.fr/theiaozcar-un-portail-unique-dedie-aux-donnees-dobservation-in-situ/</footnote>

<footnote n="62">⁶² https://ohmcv.osug.fr/</footnote>

<footnote n="63">⁶³ https://www.graie.org/zabr/sites/site8.html</footnote>

<footnote n="64">⁶⁴ https://www.zabr.assograie.org/</footnote>

<footnote n="65">⁶⁵ https://www.ozcar-ri.org/fr/ozcar-observatoires-de-la-zone-critique-applications-et-recherche/</footnote>

<footnote n="66">⁶⁶ https://www.lter-europe.net/elter</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_65.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5. L'environnement de recherche de l'implantation cévenole</figcaption></figure>

Durant ce sexennal, plusieurs projets ont été portés par ESPACE dans les Cévennes (cf. Figure 5), dont notamment le programme de recherche « HydroPop : vers une hydrologie populaire et participative ». Dédié à la connaissance des basses eaux, ce programme de recherche piloté par Philippe Martin depuis 2017 et coanimé à partir de 2019 par Pierre-Alain Ayral, a permis de mettre en place une démarche interdisciplinaire et une science impliquée avec les habitants et les gestionnaires du territoire. En parallèle de la réalisation d'une enquête sur les perceptions des habitants permanents et non permanents sur cette question de l'aridité et de la sécheresse, une stratégie de suivi hebdomadaire des débits en période estivale (une quinzaine de stations réparties sur l'amont des bassins versants du Gardon et de la Cèze) a été mise en place. L'élaboration d'une échelle de gravité des sécheresses, la diffusion de ces résultats avec une communication dédiée (média, conférences) et la mise en œuvre d'une démarche participative ont permis de mobiliser le territoire sur cette question et d'approfondir les connaissances sur cette période de tension sur la ressource en eau. La question de la gestion de crise face à ce risque a enfin été abordée, avec la réalisation de scénarios de gestion de crise sécheresse qui ont pu être testés par un simulateur auprès d'élus et de gestionnaires du territoire.

Les prochains défis de l'implantation cévenole de l'UMR ESPACE seront de poursuivre la modernisation et la fiabilisation du réseau d'observation, de s'inscrire pleinement, en collaboration avec les autres producteurs de données du laboratoire, dans une démarche de science ouverte et de continuer à animer, à susciter des projets de recherche interdisciplinaires, impliquant les acteurs de la recherche, nationaux et internationaux, ainsi que les gestionnaires du territoire et les citoyens.
#11 - UNE UMR QUI SE PRÉOCCUPE DE LA QUALITÉ DE VIE AU TRAVAIL

Rédactrices

Nathalie BRACHET (IE, CNRS)

&

Marie-Laure TRÉMÉLO (IE, CNRS)
Par qualité de vie au travail, nous entendons toutes les actions et organisations améliorant les échanges et la vie d'un laboratoire multisites et multi-tutelles.

Depuis 2015, à l'initiative de N. Brachet (site d'Avignon) et M.-L. Trémélo (site d'Aix-en-Provence), une évolution de l'organisation des activités de fonctionnement, d'appui et d'accompagnement de la recherche a été engagée, afin d'apporter plus de mutualisation et de partage dans le contexte multi-tutelles et multi-sites de notre unité.

En effet, l'éloignement géographique des trois sites universitaires et de l'antenne cévenole, et la localisation de l'UMR « à cheval » sur le périmètre de deux délégations CNRS peuvent être un frein majeur aux échanges inter-sites et à un fonctionnement transverse. Cette volonté de favoriser le partage inter-sites nous a conduit à trouver des solutions pour faciliter le travail et les échanges à distance, harmoniser les pratiques et mutualiser les informations. La mise en place de cette organisation, bien avant l'arrivée de la pandémie, nous a permis de poursuivre sereinement nos activités durant les divers épisodes de confinement.

Ce projet de ré-organisation, mis en place avec l'appui de la Direction du projet quinquennal 2018-2022, qui a soutenu et accompagné les actions engagées durant cette période, a également bénéficié d'un soutien financier du CNRS, via le projet « Vers une dynamique de partage et de mutualisation », lauréat de l'Appel à projet QVT 2017 du CNRS, et piloté par les deux initiatrices du projet.

Nous considérons que ce travail réflexif et opérationnel, même s'il ne prétend pas couvrir l'ensemble des problématiques rencontrées dans l'activité de notre UMR, constitue aujourd'hui une expertise à partager avec les autres laboratoires multisites et/ou multi-tutelles<fnref n="67" />. Si l'accompagnement de la recherche constitue pour bon nombre de laboratoires un simple service d'appui, le laboratoire ESPACE, quant à lui, considère qu'il représente un véritable levier d'amélioration de la qualité de l'activité scientifique dans toutes ses dimensions. Cette expertise se traduit par l'identification de besoins et l'élaboration de propositions et solutions concrètes, assorties de points de vigilance, pour identifier les nouvelles pistes d'amélioration. Le tableau qui suit synthétise les principaux points abordés dans le présent contrat sexennal.

<table><thead><tr><th>Contexte, besoin initial</th><th>Proposition</th><th>Solution et vigilance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>Vie de Laboratoire</strong></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>Budget</strong></td></tr><tr><td>a- Inégalité des enveloppes budgétaires de chaque site en fonction des tutelles<br>b- Accès difficile aux contrats de recherche de chaque site car présentés sur les plateformes de chaque tutelle (absence de base de données globale)</td><td>a- Utiliser les crédits CNRS pour aider les sites les moins dotés par leur université<br>b- Permettre à la Responsable Administrative (RA) d'accéder à l'ensemble des plateformes pour avoir une vue d'ensemble des contrats en cours, terminés ou à venir</td><td>a- Redistribution per capita d'une partie du budget CNRS<br>b- La plateforme commune de suivi des contrats des tutelles a été mise en place par la RA, via des tableaux de bord (suivi des contrats et suivi de la consommation du budget), partagés sur CORE (CNRS)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>Compétences de fonctionnement, d'appui et d'accompagnement de la recherche</strong></td></tr><tr><td>a- Au moment du renouvellement du laboratoire, constat de la méconnaissance des compétences et activités des personnels d'appui (PAR)<br>b- Politique de recrutement : définition des postes à pourvoir rédigée en conseil de laboratoire avec classement en fonction des besoins prioritaires sur chaque site</td><td>a- Utilisation de questionnaires adressés aux PAR et analyse des réponses<br>b- Création d'un comité opérationnel (comité de Direction + responsables des axes de recherche + 2 représentants élus des personnels du laboratoire), permettant une prise en compte des besoins en relation avec les compétences déjà présentes</td><td>a- Présentations en AG des compétences présentes au sein du laboratoire amenant à :<ul><li>demande de poste CNRS via DIALOG</li><li>mutualisation des activités des PAR au profit de tous les sites, quel que soit le lieu d'affectation</li><li>Participation du comité opérationnel aux recrutements des personnels (NOEMI, CDD...) pour accompagner les choix de la direction</li></ul></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3"><strong>Outils collaboratifs de communication</strong></td></tr><tr><td>a- Préconisations de chaque tutelle en matière d'outils collaboratifs et de communication</td><td>a- Étude et test de l'offre des quatre tutelles<br>b- Recherche d'outils nomades, peu contraignants, d'utilisation simple, pour se soustraire à la difficulté d'accès à des salles de visio</td><td>a- Choix évolutifs en fonction des avancées et des préférences de chaque tutelle (nécessité d'une grande agilité) : Renavisio, Zoom et BBB, MyCom, Tixeo,</td></tr></tbody></table>

<footnote n="67">⁶⁷ Ce partage a d'ailleurs été réalisé lors de la venue d'une délégation du laboratoire EVS de Lyon, le 28 janvier 2020 à Avignon.</footnote>