# UNION FORMATION AND PARTNER CHOICE AMONG EX-YUGOSLAV IMMIGRANTS IN SWEDEN

Ognjen OBUĆINA*

The mechanisms of exogamy and endogamy among immigrants are considered important indicators of social integration in the host society. The goal of this paper is to analyze the patterns of union formation among ex-Yugoslav of the first and second generation in Sweden. The study analyzes both marriages and non-marital childbearing unions. The longitudinal data (1990-2012) stem from the STAR compilation of the Swedish register data. The data cover the entire population residing in Sweden. The main analysis is based on discrete-time multinomial logistic regression. The results show that the length of stay in Sweden is positively associated with the likelihood of a union with a native Swedish person and negatively associated with the likelihood of an endogamous partner choice. A stronger exposure to ex-Yugoslav immigrants (measured as the share of ex-Yugoslavs in the municipality) implies a higher likelihood of endogamous union and a lower likelihood of a union with a native. University educated ex-Yugoslavs are the most likely to enter a union with a native, with the association being more pronounced among women. The patterns of intermarriage among ex-Yugoslavs largely resemble those identified in previous studies on native-immigrants marriages in Europe. One exception is that the propensity for endogamy is somewhat more pronounced among women. In order to obtain a more fine-grained picture of the causal mechanisms behind the results reported in this study, it will be necessary to conduct additional research, combining quantitative and qualitative methods.

**Keywords:** intermarriage, Sweden, immigration, union formation, former Yugoslavia

## Introduction

The prevailing view in the contemporary social science is that the patterns of formation and dissolution of mixed marriages are important indicators of social distance and social interaction between groups of different origin (Coleman, 1994). This view dates back to the 1920s, when Emory S. Bogardus constructed the social distance scale, which later became a widely used instrument in the quantitative social research. On this scale, a willingness to marry a person from another social group was the strongest indicator that individual's social distance to the group in question is very small or non-existent. There is no doubt that this link between
intermarriage and social integration (although sometimes contested, see Song, 2009) has contributed to the increased interest for intermarriage among social researchers. The research on intermarriage has a long tradition in the US, where social scientists have produced a sizeable body of literature on interethnic, interreligious, interracial and mixed nativity marriages (among others, Blau et al., 1982; Kalmijn, 1993; Qian and Lichter, 2001). European research on endogamy and exogamy is on average of more recent date. Although there are European studies on interethnic and interreligious marriages (some of which look specifically at interethnic marriages in the former Yugoslavia, see Botev, 1994; Smits, 2010), the research on intermarriage in Europe is mainly fueled by the ongoing migration inflows and increasing ethnic and cultural diversity on this continent. In other words, the studies on native-immigrant marriages currently outnumber those on other types of intermarriage in Europe (see a review in Kulu and González-Ferrer, 2014).

The setting of this study is Sweden, a country with a fairly long immigration history, especially for a country with almost non-existent colonial tradition. Sweden is considered an important destination country in the contemporary Europe, not only due to the history and the size of immigration inflows, but also due to its inclusive immigration policies that in many ways were distinct from those prevailing in the rest of Europe. The goal of this paper is to contribute to the existing body of research on family dynamics and intermarriage among immigrants in Sweden (Dribe, Lundh, 2008; 2011; Andersson et al., 2015) by focusing on the union formation among ex-Yugoslavs of the first and second generation, one of the country's largest immigrant groups. The paper also seeks to establish how integration through the lenses of partner choice is associated with other indicators of social integration, such as socioeconomic attainment or residential choice. The country under study is characterized by a very high prevalence and social acceptance of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage (Duvander, 1999; Andersson, Philipov, 2002). Therefore, focusing exclusively on marriages may produce an incomplete or even biased picture of the research question. Instead, this paper departs from the view that, besides marriage, childbearing is another indicator of a committed union (Vikat et al., 1999). Accordingly, this study looks at both marriages and childbearing non-marital unions.
# Social Context of the Research

## Emigration from the Former Yugoslavia

Looking at the period following the creation of the first Yugoslav state in 1918, Schierup (1995) divides emigration from the former Yugoslavia into three large waves. The first phase took place before the Second World War. The main destinations were the "classical immigration countries" outside Europe, whereas the main sending regions were Slovenia and Croatia. The second phase started in the 1960s, under the communist regime. Although experiencing a large-scale industrialization, Yugoslav economy was not able to cope with high unemployment rates, which increased emigration pressure. Emigration was even encouraged by the authorities to some extent and the Yugoslav government even signed bilateral agreements with governments of some Western European countries in order to facilitate the emigration process (Grečić, 2002). As a result, Yugoslavia became an important source of labor force for growing Western European economies - it is estimated that one in ten foreign workers in Europe in 1970s was Yugoslav (Schierup, 1995; Bonifazi, Mamolo, 2004). Although the enthusiasm for labor-related immigration substantially decreased in Europe after the oil crisis in 1973, the previously established migration routes between Yugoslavia and Western Europe were still operating. Family reunification emerged as the major mechanism of cross-border migrations across Europe – the demand for immigrants workers decreased, but Yugoslavs and other foreign-born workers who already emigrated before the oil crisis were still able to bring in their family members from the country of origin. The breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991 followed by an armed conflict in the region marked the beginning of the third phase of emigration wave. This phase of emigration was dominated by forced migrations, with most (but not all) of refugees coming from Bosnia and Herzegovina. This was the most serious refugee crisis in Europe after the Second World War as it is estimated that around 700,000 persons from the former Yugoslavia found a refuge in Western countries, many of whom never returned to the native region (Ambroso, 2006). Nowadays, it is clear that there is an additional, and still ongoing, fourth phase of emigration from the former Yugoslavia. The armed conflicts ended, but the negative impact of Yugoslav wars on the economies of some of newly formed, former Yugoslav states, has lasted much longer than the armed conflicts themselves. As a consequence, Western Balkans has remained a region with substantial emigration flows and a region in which emigration potential to this day remains fairly high (Pavlov, 2009; Kupiszewski et al., 2012; ISS, 2013; Šantrić-Milićević et al., 2014; Vidovic, Mara, 2015; OECD, 2015).
Sweden as Destination Country

Sweden's contemporary immigration history starts in the 1950s, with a substantial inflow of Finnish immigrants. During this period, the immigration was mostly due to economic reasons. As was the case in many other Western European countries, Sweden's economy was booming during this period. On the other hand, the countries of Southern Europe, although undergoing large scale industrialization and urbanization themselves, experienced difficulties when it comes to the incorporation of low skilled workers into the labor market. Due to these circumstances, Finnish immigrants to Sweden were followed by immigrants from the Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and the former Yugoslavia, who started arriving in Sweden in the 1960s. Serbs and Croats were the most numerous group among Yugoslav immigrants in Sweden in this period (Dribe, Lundh, 2008).

Whereas in some Western European countries the oil crisis implied a decrease in immigrant inflows, this was less the case in Sweden. After a *coup d'état* in Chile in 1973, Sweden received several thousand refugees from this country. Chileans were followed by Iranian refugees at the end of 1970s. From today's perspective it is clear that the arrival of these two groups constituted an initiation of Sweden's generous refugee policy, which since then has become one of the most recognizable features of Sweden's immigration policy in general. The arrival of former Yugoslav refugees (mainly from Bosnia-Herzegovina) is an important chapter in the contemporary history of immigration to Sweden. It is estimated that Sweden welcomed between 70,000 and 84,000 refugees from the former Yugoslavia during the 1990s (Kogan, 2003).

Most countries from which the pioneer immigrant communities in Sweden originate are nowadays characterized by substantially lower emigration rates, especially when looking at the period before the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2008. Moreover, some of these countries (most notably Spain and Italy) have experienced the "migration transition" (Castles et al., 2014), meaning that these traditional emigration countries themselves became attractive destinations for immigrants from other, less developed countries. However, the patterns of international migration have been fairly different in the post-Yugoslav countries. First, these countries have not attracted large number of immigrants from outside the region. Second, the region of the former Yugoslavia has never ceased to be a region with fairly high emigration rates. According to Statistics Sweden, some 4,700 individuals from the former Yugoslavia immigrated to Sweden in 2014 (SCB, 2015). This means that, if considered a single group, ex-Yugoslavs rank fourth in terms of current immigration flows to Sweden. The strong presence of ex-Yugoslav immigrants in Sweden becomes even more
obvious when looking at immigrant stocks. Data from Statistics Sweden indicate that at the end of 2014 there were around 162,000 residents in Sweden who were born in one of the post-Yugoslav countries (SCB, 2015). This implies that, if considered a single group, ex-Yugoslavs now constitute the largest immigrant community in Sweden.

## Theoretical Background and Hypotheses

Intermarriage denotes a marriage or a union between two individuals from different social groups, whereby these groups can be defined with respect to different dimensions of social affiliation. In what is now a classical paper on intermarriage, Kalmijn (1998) identified three major factors that determine the patterns of intermarriage: preferences, marriage markets and third parties. These three factors can be relevant regardless of which dimensions of social affiliation (ethnicity, nativity, religion or even social class) is used to define intermarriage. In spite of considerable contextual and methodological differences in the previous research, there are some findings on native-immigrant marriages that can be regarded as nearly universal. Assimilation perspective (Gordon, 1964) has been very influential in social sciences in general, and in migration research in particular. According to this perspective, immigrants and children of immigrants undergo a process of acculturation in the country of destination. As a consequence, a longer exposure to the mainstream society implies a higher degree of acceptance of dominant values, tastes and lifestyle in the host society. A longer duration of stay is also positively associated with the language fluency and other country-specific skills. This suggests that minority members who have spent a longer time in the country will have stronger preference for a native partner, as compared to their co-ethnics who arrived more recently. On a similar note, they will also be perceived as more attractive potential partners among natives, as compared to their co-ethnics with a shorter duration of stay in the destination country. These views are corroborated in the previous studies, which find that second generation immigrants are more likely to marry a native person than first generation immigrants, whereas, among the latter, age at immigration is negatively associated with the likelihood of having a native partner (Kalmijn, Van Tubergen, 2006; Muttarak, Heath, 2010; Dribe, Lundh, 2008; Safi, 2010). Since the theoretical concepts behind the assimilation hypothesis also apply to the experiences of individuals of ex-Yugoslav origin in Sweden, the *assimilation hypothesis* states that:

> *H1a: Swedish-born individuals of Yugoslav parental origin (second generation immigrants) are more likely than Yugoslav-born residents of*
Sweden (first generation immigrants) to enter a union with a native Swedish person.

H1b: Yugoslav-born immigrants who immigrated in the early childhood are more likely to form a union with a native Swedish person as compared to Yugoslav-born immigrants who arrived in Sweden aged 8 or older.

Individual preferences in the marriage market can be to varying degrees constrained by the local opportunity structure. Macro-sociological theory argues that social structure affects the patterns of people's associations with other people (Blau et al., 1984). One of the basic components of social structure is the number of groups with respect to a given dimension as well as the size of these groups. A frequent finding in the studies of intermarriage is that endogamy will be more prevalent among larger immigrant (or other minority) groups (González-Ferrer, 2006; Van Tubergen, Maas, 2007; Muttarak, Heath, 2010). The reasoning is simple and based on the logic of numbers – the members of larger immigrant (or other minority) groups will have a larger pool of potential co-ethnic partners to choose from. Since the size of immigrant group is operationalized as the presence of ex-Yugoslav immigrants in the municipality of residence, the group size hypothesis predicts that:

H2a: There is a positive association between the number of ex-Yugoslav immigrants in the municipality and the formation of an endogamous union.

H2b: There is a negative association between the number of ex-Yugoslav immigrants in the municipality and the formation of an exogamous union.

Given a very important role that education levels and educational homogamy have in the general research on marriage (Mare, 1991), it is not surprising that the link between education and intermarriage has also attracted a lot of attention among social researchers. Studies on partner choice most commonly find that higher education increases the chances for an immigrant to marry a native (González-Ferrer, 2006; Kalmijn, Van Tubergen, 2006; Dribe, Lundh, 2008). The researchers have proposed three possible explanations for this association. First, as discussed previously, the likelihood of marrying exogamously among other things also depends on the opportunity to meet a person from another social group. The group size hypothesis refers to the opportunity structure determined by the composition of neighbourhoods or municipalities. However, a likelihood of meeting members of other social groups also depends on the composition of other meeting contexts, such as schools, universities or workplaces (Kalmijn, Flap, 2001). As it is safe to assume that immigrants who attend the institutions of higher education are on average more exposed to natives than lower educated immigrants, they are also more likely to find a partner among natives. Second, highly educated immigrants are more attractive on the native marriage market than their
less educated co-ethnics. This perspective is related to the status exchange hypothesis, which views the formation of intermarriage as an act of exchange – by marrying a lower educated native, highly educated immigrants exchange their social status with the privileges associated with being a member of the native (or other majority) group (Choi et al., 2012). Finally, it has been suggested in the previous literature that highly educated immigrants show a higher cultural adaptability to the host society (Furtado, Theodoropoulos, 2011). As a consequence, one would expect highly educated immigrants to have a lower than average identification with the community of origin as well as a lower than average preference for endogamy. All these considerations set the stage for the *education hypothesis*, which states that:

*H3: University educated individuals of Yugoslav origin are most likely to form unions with native Swedish partners.*

## Data and Methodology

This study uses data from the STAR compilation of the Swedish register data. The data are longitudinal and cover the entire population residing in Sweden in a given year. The study covers the time period between 1990 and 2012 and it focuses on partner choices of individuals of Yugoslav origin who live in Sweden. One of the main limitations of the dataset is the inability to classify the individuals of Yugoslav origin according to their affiliation to post-Yugoslav countries created after 1991. More precisely, in the STAR compilation of register data it is only possible to separate the immigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina from other ex-Yugoslavs, and even among them only those who immigrated in 1992 or after. All other former Yugoslavs are classified as a single category. For the purpose of this analysis, immigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina and immigrants from other parts of the former Yugoslavia are merged into a single category, ex-Yugoslav immigrants.<fnref n="1" /> Person is considered to be of Yugoslav origin either if he or she was born in the former Yugoslavia and immigrated to Sweden by the age of 15, or if the individual was born in Sweden to two Yugoslav-born parents. Those who immigrated at an age older than 15 are excluded from the study, due to the possibility that they had made the plans on union formation before moving to Sweden.

A relationship between two partners has to meet at least one of the following conditions to be considered a union: 1) the partners are married,

<footnote n="1">¹ Swedish register data contain no information about ethnicity or religion. Therefore, the classification of immigrant groups can only be based on the country of birth (own and parental). This study assumes that the unions in which both partners are of ex-Yugoslav origin are endogamous unions, and will be denoted as such.</footnote>
or 2) the partners live together and have a common child.<fnref n="2" /> So, the event that constitutes the start of a union is either the act of marriage<fnref n="3" /> or the birth of a child, whichever comes first. An individual at the risk of union formation enters the study at the age of 18, and leaves the study once one of the following events takes place: 1) individual forms a union, 2) individual emigrates from Sweden, 3) individual dies or 4) individual is still unpartnered in the year 2012. The analysis is estimated as a competing risks model or, more precisely, discrete-time multinomial logistic regression. Dependent variable indicates whether the individual under study forms the first union in the year *t+1* and, if yes, what the origin of the partner is:

* it takes value 0 if the individual is still un-partnered in the year *t+1*;

* it takes value 1 if the individual in the year *t+1* forms a union with a partner of Yugoslav origin (i.e. partner born in the former Yugoslavia or partner born in Sweden to two Yugoslav-born parents). This type of union will henceforth also be referred to as endogamous union.

* it takes value 2 if the individual in the year *t+1* forms a union with a native partner (i.e. partner born in Sweden to two Swedish-born parents).

* it takes value 3 if the individual in the year *t+1* forms a union with a partner of another immigrant origin.<fnref n="4" /> These unions will also be referred to as immigrant exogamous unions.

There are three main independent variables in the multivariate model, each referring to one of three hypotheses. *Length of stay in Sweden* is categorized as follows: 1) born in Sweden, i.e. second generation immigrant (reference category); 2) early childhood immigrant (if age at arrival in Sweden is between 0 and 7), and 3) age at arrival between 8 and 15. *Group size* is also operationalized as a category variable. This variable is time-invariant and refers to the share of persons of Yugoslav origin in the municipality of residence when the observed individual was 18 years

<footnote n="2">² Being married or having a child together are the only two ways for a couple to be identified as such in the STAR compilation. Cohabitants who are not married and have no common children are recorded as two separate single households.</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³ Marriages that precede the birth of the first child will also be denoted as direct marriages throughout the text. It should also be emphasized that a large share of couples who start their union as a non-marital childbearing union eventually marry. Depending on the timing of childbearing, these marriages can be classified as legitimizing, reinforcing and capstone marriages (Holland, 2013). However, transitions to these types of marriage are not dealt with in this paper.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴ This heterogeneous group consists of partners born in a third country (outside Sweden and outside the former Yugoslavia), second generation immigrants of non-Yugoslav parental origin, and Swedish-born partners of mixed parental origin (i.e. partners with one native and one foreign-born parent).</footnote>
of age.<fnref n="5" /> Group size has four categories: 1) weak presence (if the share of persons of Yugoslav immigrants of the first and second generation in the total population in the municipality is less than 1 percent; reference category), 2) moderate presence (if the share is at least 1, but less than 2 percent), 3) moderately strong presence (if the share is at least 2, but less than 3 percent) and 4) strong presence (if the share is 3 percent or higher). *Education level* is a time-varying variable and indicates individual’s highest educational degree attained by the year *t*. The variable has four categories: 1) primary school or less; 2) secondary education (reference category); 3) some post-secondary education, and 4) tertiary education or research degree.

The socio-economic position is controlled for by the variable created using the information on income and public transfers. This variable is categorized as follows: 1) employed (reference category), 2) unemployed, 3) student, 4) welfare recipient, and 5) others. The model also controls for age, which is a time-varying variable divided into four categories: 18-22 (reference category), 23-27, 28-32, and older than 32. Period dummies (1999 or before; 2000-2005; 2006 or after) control for the possible impact of contextual factors that may affect the formation of union and the choice of partner.

## Descriptive Evidence

Figure 1 shows the prevalence of endogamous and exogamous unions among ex-Yugoslav men in Sweden who form the first union until the end of 2012. Union with a woman of ex-Yugoslav origin is the most frequent choice in all three groups defined by the length of stay in Sweden. Nevertheless, whereas unions with native partners are almost as prevalent as endogamous unions among second generation men, endogamous unions are much more dominant in the other two groups. As much as two thirds of early childhood immigrants and more than three quarters of men who immigrated between the ages 8 and 15 choose endogamous unions. In all three groups, union with a native woman is a somewhat more frequent choice than a union with a woman of another immigrant background.

The patterns of partner choice for women are shown in Figure 2. In general, women's choices are fairly similar to the results obtained for men. Endogamous union is a dominant choice in all three groups defined by the

<footnote n="5">⁵ This choice was made in order to minimize the threat of reverse causality. Some individuals move to another town or neighborhood because they plan to start a union. Therefore, it would be difficult to interpret the coefficients if group size was time-varying and referred to the year *t*.</footnote>
length of stay in Sweden. Exogamous unions with native partners outnumber immigrant exogamous unions, although only marginally in the first generation (by less than one percentage point). The principal difference with respect to Figure 1 is that the propensity for endogamy is

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1
Partner choice among men of ex-Yugoslav background in Sweden (%)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Swedish register data, own calculations.

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2
Partner choice women of ex-Yugoslav background in Sweden (%)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Swedish register data, own calculations.
more pronounced among women than among men: more than a half of second generation women and more than eighty percent of Yugoslav-born women choose a partner of ex-Yugoslav origin when starting their first union.

The previous research has demonstrated that the acceptance of cohabitation in Sweden is higher in the native Swedish population than among immigrants (Dribe, Lundh, 2012). Therefore, it is no surprise that the origin of the partner in the first union is to a considerable extent

<table><caption>Table 1
Partner's origin and the share of direct marriages at the first union formation</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th></th><th>Endogamous union</th><th>Union with native</th><th>Immigrant exogamous union</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="3">Men</td><td>Second generation</td><td>80.64</td><td>31.37</td><td>56.05</td></tr><tr><td>Early childhood immigrants</td><td>78.40</td><td>18.75</td><td>52.54</td></tr><tr><td>Immigrated aged 8-15</td><td>78.39</td><td>28.54</td><td>46.37</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Women</td><td>Second generation</td><td>78.98</td><td>43.78</td><td>55.32</td></tr><tr><td>Early childhood immigrants</td><td>81.91</td><td>43.80</td><td>54.89</td></tr><tr><td>Immigrated aged 8-15</td><td>78.59</td><td>55.52</td><td>63.41</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Swedish register data, own calculations.

associated to type of the first union with respect to living arrangement. Table 1 demonstrates that for both men and women, and regardless of the length of stay in Sweden, four out of five endogamous unions are direct marriages. As far as unions with native partners are concerned, the prevalence of direct marriages is much lower, especially among men. For instance, only around one in five men who arrived in Sweden in the early childhood and who start a union with a native Swedish woman will choose direct marriage. When it comes to immigrant exogamous unions, the share of direct marriages is somewhere between endogamous unions and unions with native partners, with modestly pronounced gender differences.

## Multivariate Analysis: Results

The results of discrete-time multivariate logistic regression for men are displayed in Table 2. The analysis shows a clear support for the assimilation hypothesis. Swedish-born individuals of Yugoslav origin are the most likely to start a union with a native. They also show the highest propensity for immigrant exogamous unions as well as the lowest
propensity for endogamy. On the other hand, ex-Yugoslavs whoimmigrated aged 8 or older are the least likely to form a union with a native woman, and are more likely than other two groups to start an

<table><caption>Table 2
Partner choice among male ex-Yugoslav immigrants of the first and second generation in Sweden, discrete-time multinomial logistic regression, relative risk ratios</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Endogamous union</th><th>Union with native</th><th>Immigrant exogamous union</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Second generation (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Early childhood immigrants</td><td>1.54***</td><td>0.69***</td><td>0.78**</td></tr><tr><td>Immigrated between ages of 8 and 15</td><td>3.21***</td><td>0.67***</td><td>0.83**</td></tr><tr><td>Age 18-22 (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Age 23-27</td><td>2.77***</td><td>5.09***</td><td>4.34***</td></tr><tr><td>Age 28-32</td><td>3.72***</td><td>10.50***</td><td>8.47***</td></tr><tr><td>Older than 32</td><td>2.94***</td><td>10.81***</td><td>7.74***</td></tr><tr><td>Secondary education (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Primary education</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.94</td><td>1.09</td></tr><tr><td>Some post-secondary education</td><td>0.65***</td><td>0.84</td><td>0.80</td></tr><tr><td>Tertiary education</td><td>0.84***</td><td>1.18**</td><td>0.97</td></tr><tr><td>Employed (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Unemployed</td><td>0.88</td><td>0.71**</td><td>0.81</td></tr><tr><td>Welfare</td><td>0.66***</td><td>0.49***</td><td>0.92</td></tr><tr><td>In education</td><td>0.29***</td><td>0.30***</td><td>0.34***</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>0.65***</td><td>0.42***</td><td>0.71***</td></tr><tr><td>Weak group presence (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Moderate group presence</td><td>1.25**</td><td>0.99</td><td>1.12</td></tr><tr><td>Moderately strong group presence</td><td>1.44***</td><td>0.79***</td><td>1.05</td></tr><tr><td>Strong group presence</td><td>1.50***</td><td>0.79***</td><td>1.19*</td></tr><tr><td>Year 1999 or before (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2000 – 2005</td><td>1.21***</td><td>1.19*</td><td>0.91</td></tr><tr><td>2006 or after</td><td>0.98</td><td>1.13</td><td>0.93</td></tr><tr><td>Persons</td><td>24,486</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Person-years</td><td>190,176</td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Note:*p<0.10; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01. Standard errors are not reported for the sake of space.

Source: Swedish register data, own calculations

endogamous union. The difference is particularly pronounced when a comparison is made to second generation immigrants – all else equal, those who immigrated aged 8 or older are more than three times more likely to opt for an ex-Yugoslav partner. The group size hypothesis has also been confirmed. The stronger the presence of ex-Yugoslavs in the
municipality of residence at the age of 18, the higher the likelihood of entering an endogamous union. To illustrate, living in the municipality with a strong presence of former Yugoslavs implies a 50% higher risk of endogamous union, when a comparison is made to the individuals who at the age of 18 lived in an area with a weak presence of Yugoslav immigrant communities. On a similar note, the chances of opting for a native partner are lowest in the areas with moderately strong or strong group presence. In contrast, group presence has a modest impact on union with partners of other immigrant background. The results in Table 2 also support the education hypothesis, since the risk of union with a native partner, as predicted, is the highest for men with a tertiary degree. However, the magnitude of the effect of education is moderate - the risk of union with a native is 18 percent higher for men with tertiary education than for those with secondary education. On the other hand, highly educated ex-Yugoslavs are *ceteris paribus* somewhat less likely enter an endogamous union, whereas there is no statistically significant difference when looking at the formation of immigrant exogamous unions.

As for the effect of other variables, the risk of entering an endogamous union as well as an immigrant exogamous union is highest between the ages 28 and 32, while men older than 32 have the highest risk of union with a native woman. When a comparison is made to the reference category (age 18-22), relative risks of union formation are smaller in magnitude for endogamous than for exogamous unions. This indicates those entering exogamous unions (either with a native or non-native partner) are typically older than those who choose a partner of ex-Yugoslav origin. Employed men are most likely to enter any of three types of union as defined by partner's origin, whereas the individuals who are still enrolled in education have the lowest risk of union formation.

Table 3 shows the results of the multivariate analysis for women. As far as the assimilation hypothesis is concerned, the results resemble those obtained for men. As predicted by this hypothesis, second generation Yugoslav women are more likely than other two groups to form an exogamous union, either with a native or non-native partner. Yugoslav-born women who immigrated at the age of 8 or older have the lowest risk of union with a native partner as well as the highest risk of the formation of endogamous union. Table 3 also demonstrates that there is little difference between men and women with respect to the association between group size and partner choices. A stronger presence of ex-Yugoslavs in the municipality of residence implies a higher likelihood of an endogamous choice. Moreover, the magnitude of relative risks is similar to those reported in Table 2. A higher concentration of the Yugoslav communities also implies a lower relative risk of a union with a
native person, and this effect is somewhat more pronounced among women than among men. There is no statistically significant association between the share of ex-Yugoslav and the risk of immigrant exogamous union. Finally, the analysis also lends support to the education hypothesis

<table><caption>Table 3.
Partner choice among female ex-Yugoslav immigrants of the first and second generation in Sweden, discrete-time multinomial logistic regression, relative risk ratios</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Endogamous union</th><th>Union with native</th><th>Immigrant exogamous union</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Second generation (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Early childhood immigrants</td><td>1.55***</td><td>0.72***</td><td>0.71***</td></tr><tr><td>Immigrated between ages of 8 and 15</td><td>2.48***</td><td>0.61***</td><td>0.72***</td></tr><tr><td>Age 18-22 (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Age 23-27</td><td>1.37***</td><td>4.31***</td><td>3.54***</td></tr><tr><td>Age 28-32</td><td>1.16***</td><td>8.00***</td><td>5.40***</td></tr><tr><td>Older than 32</td><td>0.73**</td><td>7.53***</td><td>4.75***</td></tr><tr><td>Secondary education (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Primary education</td><td>0.77***</td><td>0.56***</td><td>0.91</td></tr><tr><td>Some post-secondary education</td><td>0.64***</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.58***</td></tr><tr><td>Tertiary education</td><td>0.88***</td><td>1.44***</td><td>0.87*</td></tr><tr><td>Employed (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Unemployed</td><td>1.17*</td><td>0.87</td><td>0.97</td></tr><tr><td>Welfare</td><td>0.92*</td><td>0.48***</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>In education</td><td>0.47***</td><td>0.36***</td><td>0.52***</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.55***</td><td>1.04</td></tr><tr><td>Weak group presence (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Moderate group presence</td><td>1.33***</td><td>0.91</td><td>1.02</td></tr><tr><td>Moderately strong group presence</td><td>1.40***</td><td>0.74***</td><td>0.89</td></tr><tr><td>Strong group presence</td><td>1.54***</td><td>0.56***</td><td>0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Year 1999 or before (ref.)</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2000 – 2005</td><td>1.14***</td><td>0.95</td><td>0.98</td></tr><tr><td>2006 or after</td><td>0.87***</td><td>0.80**</td><td>0.98</td></tr><tr><td>Persons</td><td colspan="3">22,430</td></tr><tr><td>Person-years</td><td colspan="3">149,256</td></tr></tbody></table>

Note: *p<0.10; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01. Standard errors are not reported for the sake of space.

Source: Swedish register data, own calculations
– a university educated woman of Yugoslav origin has a 44% higher risk of starting a union with a native man, as compared to a woman with a secondary education degree. University educated women are somewhat less likely to start both an endogamous union and an immigrant exogamous union.

A notable difference between men and women is that the impact of age among the latter on the formation of endogamous union is modest. The risk of endogamous union is highest between the ages 23 and 27, but even then it is only 37% higher than in the age interval 18-22. On the other hand, and similar to the results for men, exogamous unions are usually formed at later ages. The relative risk of both types of exogamous union is highest between the ages 28 and 32, and remains fairly high also for women older than 32 years. Whereas employed men are most likely to enter any of the three types of union, the attachment to labor market is less important for women. For instance, unemployed women have a somewhat higher risk of endogamous union than employed women.

Conclusion

This study sought to contribute to the previous literature on endogamy and intermarriage by analyzing the patterns of partner choice among ex-Yugoslav immigrants of the first and second generation in Sweden. Descriptive results show that endogamous union is the most frequent choice among both men and women. Yet, the propensity for endogamy is somewhat more pronounced among women. This is an interesting result, given that the most of the previous research has demonstrated that the interplay of migration and gender norms usually works in such a way that immigrant women in Europe are more prone to enter a union with a native person (Lanzieri, 2012). Multivariate analysis supports all three hypotheses proposed in Section 3. In accordance with the assimilation hypothesis, the length of stay in Sweden is positively associated with the likelihood of entering a union with a native, and negatively associated with the likelihood of an endogamous partner choice. As the groups size hypothesis predicts, the stronger the presence of the ex-Yugoslavs in the municipality, the higher are the chances of endogamous union, while the opposite holds for unions with natives. Finally, just as the education hypothesis predicts, highly educated ex-Yugoslavs are the most likely to enter a union with a native person. This association is more pronounced among women. Age also matters in the process of union formation – the analysis indicates that the formation of endogamous unions on average takes place at younger ages, especially among women. There is a positive association between the attachment to labor market and the formation of
union among men, regardless of the origin of the partner. On the other hand, being employed matters less for women.

As discussed, one of the main limitations in this study is the inability to distinguish ex-Yugoslav immigrants by ethnic origin, or by the affiliation to successor states of the former Yugoslav federation. Another limitation is that it is difficult to disentangle the relative importance of the actual causal mechanisms that affect partner choices among ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden. For instance, the education hypothesis was based on several mutually non-exclusive causal mechanisms, but it is not clear which of these are more and which are less important in shaping the results of the analysis. Also, are the immigrants who arrive at the age older than 7 most prone to endogamous choice because they have the strongest preference for endogamy or because they less attractive partners on the native marriage market? It is very likely that both is the case, but, given that it is not possible to measure preferences using register data, it is not clear which of two mechanisms is more salient. Further, one cannot rule out that the parents, relatives and other third parties also have a certain influence on partner choice among at least some ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden. Moreover, it is likely that this influence is more pronounced in areas with a high presence of Yugoslav communities. If it is assumed, as is commonly done in the research on intermarriage, that third parties tend to prefer endogamous choices (Kalmijn, 1998; Sherkat, 2004), it is also possible that the positive association between the group size and endogamy is not only a result of neighborhood effects and individual social networks, but is also, to at least some extent, driven by third parties. In order to obtain a more fine-grained picture of the causal mechanisms behind the results reported here, it will be necessary to conduct additional research, combining quantitative and qualitative methods.

## Acknowledgements

I am grateful for financial support from the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet) via the Swedish Initiative for research on Microdata in the Social and Medical Sciences (SIMSAM): Register-based Research in Nordic Demography, grant 839-2008-7495.

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## Ognjen Obućina

### Union Formation and Partner Choice among Ex-Yugoslav Immigrants in Sweden

#### *Summary*

The mechanisms of exogamy and endogamy among immigrants are considered important indicators of social integration in the host society. The goal of this paper is to analyze the patterns of union formation among ex-Yugoslav of the first and second generation in Sweden. The study analyzes both marriages and non-marital childbearing unions.

Yugoslav immigration to Sweden started in the 1960s. During this period, the immigration was mostly due to economic reasons. The nature of migration movements changed in the 1990s, when Sweden received a large number of
refugees from the former Yugoslavia. Data from Statistics Sweden indicate that today, if considered a single group, ex-Yugoslavs constitute the largest immigrant community in Sweden.

Based on the previous research, three main hypotheses are proposed. The assimilation hypothesis assumes that immigrants and children of immigrants undergo a process of acculturation in the host society. Therefore, one should expect that there is a positive association between length of stay in Sweden and exogamy and a negative association between length of stay in Sweden and endogamy. The group size hypothesis originates from the macro-sociological theory and predicts that chances of endogamy (exogamy) will be higher (lower) in the areas with a strong presence of ex-Yugoslav immigrants. Finally, the education hypothesis is based on the previous findings on the interplay between education on the one hand and preferences and opportunities on the marriage market on the other. This hypothesis predicts that university educated ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden will, all else equal, be most likely to enter a union with a native Swedish person.

This study uses data from the STAR compilation of the Swedish register data. The data are longitudinal and cover the entire population residing in Sweden in a given year. The study covers the time period between 1990. One of the main limitations of the dataset is the inability to classify the individuals of Yugoslav origin according to their affiliation to post-Yugoslav countries created after 1991. For the purpose of this analysis, immigrants from all parts of the former Yugoslavia are merged into a single category, ex-Yugoslav immigrants. Person is considered to be of Yugoslav origin either if he or she was born in the former Yugoslavia and immigrated to Sweden by the age of 15, or if the individual was born in Sweden to two Yugoslav-born parents. Those who immigrated at an age older than 15 are excluded from the study, due to the possibility that they had made the plans on union formation before moving to Sweden. The main analysis is based on discrete-time multinomial logistic regression.

Descriptive results show that endogamous union is the most frequent choice among both men and women, with the propensity for endogamy being somewhat more pronounced among women. The multivariate analysis supports all three hypotheses (assimilation hypothesis, group size hypothesis and education hypothesis). Age also matters in the process of union formation – the analysis indicates that the formation of endogamous unions on average takes place at younger ages, especially among women. There is a positive association between being employed and the formation of union among men, regardless of the origin of the partner. On the other hand, employment matters less for women. In order to further examine the causal mechanisms behind the results of this study, it will be necessary to conduct additional research, combining quantitative and qualitative methods.

**Keywords:** intermarriage, Sweden, immigration, union formation, former Yugoslavia
Ognjen Obućina

Formiranje partnerskih zajednica i izbor partnera kod imigranata iz bivše
Jugoslavije u Švedskoj

Rezime

Obrasci stvaranja egzogamnih i endogamnih brakova među imigrantima se smatraju važnim pokazateljima društvene integracije u domicilno društvo. Cilj ovog rada je da analizira obrasce formiranja partnerskih zajednica među imigrantima iz bivše Jugoslavije u Švedskoj. Studija obuhvata kako bračne tako i vanbračne zajednice, pod uslovom da partneri imaju zajedničko dete. Za analizu su korišćeni longitudinalni podaci (1990-2012) iz STAR kompilacije švedskih državnih registara. Podaci obuhvataju celokupno stanovništvo sa prebivalištem u Švedskoj. Glavna analiza je zasnovana multinominalnoj logističkoj regresiji.

Rezultati pokazuju da imigranti poreklom iz bivše Jugoslavije koji duže borave u Švedskoj ceteris paribus imaju veće šanse za zasnivanje partnerske zajednice sa osobama švedskog porekla, odnosno manje šanse za zasnivanje endogamne zajednice. Veća izloženost imigrantima jugoslovenskog porekla (izražena kroz udeo bivših Jugloslovena u ukupnoj populaciji opštine stanovanja) implicira veću verovatnoću zasnivanja endogamne zajednice, te manju verovatnoću zasnivanja zajednice sa partnerom švedskog porekla. Fakultetski obrazovani imigranti poreklom iz bivše Jugoslavije, posebno oni ženskog pola, verovatnije će stupiti u partnersku zajednicu sa osobom švedskog porekla. Obrasci zasnivanja mešovitih brakova među osobama poreklom iz bivše Jugoslavije u Švedskoj su uglavnom slični prethodno ustanovljenim dominantnim obrascima zasnivanja brakova između osoba imigrantskog i domicilnog porekla u Evropi. Glavni izuzetak uočen u ovoj studiji je da je sklonost ka endogamiji nešto više izražena kod žena. Da bi se dobila preciznija slika o kauzalnim mehanizmima koji oblikuju glavne rezultate prikazane u ovom radu, potrebna su dodatna istraživanja, koja bi podrazumevala kombinovanje kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih metoda.

Ključne reči: mešoviti brakovi, Švedska, imigracija, partnerske zajednice, bivša Jugoslavija