# Diffusion of flood damage: an application to the wine sector

David Nortes Martínez, Pauline Bremond, Stefano Farolfi, Frédéric Grelot, Juliette Rouchier

► To cite this version:

David Nortes Martínez, Pauline Bremond, Stefano Farolfi, Frédéric Grelot, Juliette Rouchier. Diffusion of flood damage: an application to the wine sector. Social Simulation 2015: the eleventh conference of the European Social Simulation Association. Groningen: ESSA, Sep 2015, Groningen, Netherlands. 2015. [hal-04925365](https://hal.science/hal-04925365v1)

HAL Id: hal-04925365

https://hal.science/hal-04925365v1

Submitted on 3 Feb 2025

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# Diffusion of flood damage: an application to wine sector

David Nortes Martínez¹, Pauline Brémond¹, Stefano Farolfi², Frédéric Grelot¹, Juliette Rouchier³

## The Study

### AIM OF THE STUDY

Understanding of indirect effects of hazards and its propagation along economic networks is essential to improve current cost-benefit analysis methodologies.

1. How direct impacts of floods over an agent can affect other agents in the same network?

2. Are effects of floods persistent over time?

### METHODOLOGY

Empirically based Agent-based models.

Surveys to understand the framework, networks, constraints and rationalities.

## Case study: Aude department

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## Model

### 1. Agents and environment

#### AGENTS

1. Farmers.

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* Own croplands and grow grapes.

* Support the cooperative winery costs.

* Revenue comes from wine sold by the cooperative.

2. Cooperatives.

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* Receive the grapes, process the wine and sell it in the markets.

* Costs and revenues distributed proportionally to yearly yield.

#### ENVIRONMENT

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#### SIMULATIONS

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1. Exogenous Prices.

2. Farm homogeneous in number of croplands but not in risk of being flooded

3. Different flood extents (as % of the prone area). Impacts on different elements:

* 20%: nothing.

* 40%: Farm 1's croplands.

* 60%: Farm 1 and 2's croplands + cooperative.

* 80%: Farm 1 and 2's croplands + cooperative + Farm 1.

* 100%: Everything excepts croplands outside prone area.

4. Simulations for every season.

### 2. Outputs

**COSTS DECOMPOSITION CHARTS:** Sources and assessment of damages (€).

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**CROSSED EFFECTS RATIO CHARTS:** Euros (€) spent by an agent per Euros (€) of revenue received by another one.

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**INDUCED CROSSED EFFECTS RATIO CHARTS:** mid-term crossed effects ratio.

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### 3. Conclusions

* Amount and sources of damage depend on seasons and magnitude of the flood.

* Because of interaction and economic links, damages over one agent affect other ones in the system, even if they have not been flooded.

* Persistent mid-term effects ⇒ Mid-term induced costs.

* Persistent mid-term crossed effects.

## Next Steps

* Analysis of long-term effects.

* Effects of floods on soil conditions, market prices...

* Introduction of individual autonomous choice.

* Solidarity mechanisms in floods and their influence.

* Role of insurance.

* Generalization to more sectors.