# Trends in ecosystem recovery from drought

Sonia Seneviratne, Philippe Ciais

► To cite this version:

Sonia Seneviratne, Philippe Ciais. Trends in ecosystem recovery from drought. Nature, 2017, 548 (7666), pp.164 - 165. 10.1038/548164a. cea-01887623

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the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute.
e-mails: gsv20@sanger.ac.uk;
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

# Trends in ecosystem recovery from drought

An analysis suggests that the time taken for ecosystems to recover from drought increased during the twentieth century. If the frequency of drought events rises, some ecosystems might never have the chance to fully recover. SEE LETTER P.202

SONIA I. SENEVIRATNE & PHILIPPE CIAIS

On page 202, Schwalm et al.¹ assess historical trends in the recovery of ecosystems from drought, using three state-of-the-art data sets of gross primary productivity (GPP) — the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is fixed in ecosystems by photosynthesis. Intriguingly, the analysis suggests that the total area of ecosystems that are in a post-drought recovery state increased during the twentieth century. Moreover, the authors identify areas where the drought-recovery time is particularly long, and which might, therefore, be particularly vulnerable to more-frequent droughts.

Changes in the recurrence of climate events, and the associated times taken for affected ecosystems to recover, are rarely considered in evaluations of the global impact of climate change. For instance, the most recent assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) generally focus on mean climate changes, providing only a few analyses of the frequency with which extreme events occur²,³, and little or no information on the statistics of time lapses between recurring extreme events. Climate scientists increasingly consider the timescale of recovery processes to be an integral part of impact assessments, but such considerations have generally been confined to local-scale experiments, regional assessments, literature reviews and theoretical studies⁴⁻⁷.

Schwalm et al. now offer an interesting global and historical perspective on this issue by considering how photosynthesis recovers from drought across different ecosystems, using data sets that are based at least partly on observations. They report that the total ecosystem area affected by drought recovery increased during the twentieth century, and that recovery times have also tended to increase. This finding might have major

implications under increasing global warming: if an ecosystem has not fully recovered from a drought, the effects of a subsequent drought might increase in a nonlinear, unpredictable way (Fig. 1).

The authors also note that regions at high northern latitudes and in the tropics have particularly long recovery times — highlighting these areas as being especially vulnerable to any increases in the recurrence of drought. This might have important ramifications for the carbon cycle, given that tropical regions in particular act as a substantial land carbon sink.

One should nonetheless note some limitations of the study, which may require the results to be interpreted cautiously. First, the main conclusions are based on GPP data sets generated from land-surface models⁸. The simulations produced by these models are constrained by observational data regarding

precipitation, temperature and the amount of sunlight available for GPP in given time periods and regions. However, the simulated carbon fixation by GPP is not constrained by observations — at least, not in a way that goes beyond the basic, standard procedures generally used for model validation. Furthermore, the land-surface models do not explicitly represent many of the dynamic processes relevant to drought impacts and recovery⁶,⁷, such as plant mortality caused by hydraulic failure (a drought-induced physiological problem that affects water uptake); changes in vegetation that occur after fires; and pest outbreaks. The results are therefore likely to mainly reflect changes in climate features, rather than the full response from vegetation.

Schwalm et al. validated the analysed simulations by comparing them with two other GPP estimates⁹,¹⁰, but both of these are also based only partly on observations and depend strongly on model-like assumptions (that is, on the algorithms developed to derive the data sets). Most notably, the comparator data sets were calibrated using carbon-flux data, which are scarce, and therefore include estimates for some areas, such as tropical regions, that rely on only a handful of observations⁹,¹⁰. In addition, the algorithms underlying the development of these data sets are relatively simple, and do not, for instance, account for the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ levels on photosynthesis and GPP¹¹, nor explicitly represent the effects of soil-moisture limitation on CO₂

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 1** | Effects of changes to recurrent environmental stressors. a, A recurring environmental stressor such as drought will have recurring effects on ecosystems, characterized by an impact phase and a recovery phase. b, If the stressor pattern remains the same (red line) but the time taken for the ecosystem to recover to pre-drought conditions increases, or if the time period over which the stressor occurs increases (yellow line), then the impact phase of a new event might overlap with the longer recovery phase of a past event, potentially leading to unknown impact levels. Schwalm et al.¹ report that the time taken for various ecosystems to recover from drought increased during the twentieth century.</figcaption></figure>
assimilation by ecosystems⁶,¹². It would therefore be helpful to include alternative estimates of GPP in future analyses.

Another limitation is that the authors use a single metric¹³ to quantify and characterize droughts. But drought is difficult to assess properly³,¹⁴,¹⁵ — particularly when assessing changes relevant to ecosystems, which relate more to changes in soil-moisture storage¹² than to changes in precipitation. The metric used by Schwalm *et al.* partly accounts for evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from Earth's surface, a factor that affects soil-moisture storage), in addition to precipitation deficits. But a lack of global-scale measurements means that the effects of evapotranspiration factored into the metric are based mainly on estimates of a quantity known as potential evaporation¹³, which is the maximum possible evaporation and thus tends to overestimate drought¹⁶ when used instead of evapotranspiration. Moreover, potential evaporation is highly sensitive to air temperature. But under strong drought conditions, air temperature is increased by soil-moisture limitation (which reduces evaporative cooling¹²), and doesn't lead to further drying because plants reduce evapotranspiration during drought. Using a different drought metric in the analysis could produce smaller trends in drought recovery. It would thus be beneficial to expand the authors' analysis to include other data sets that describe drought.

Limitations aside, Schwalm and colleagues' study is highly valuable because it points to an under-appreciated dimension of drought impacts: the timescale of recovery and its relationship to the occurrence of drought events. The work offers crucial perspectives that might help in the development of new indices¹⁷ of extreme climate that are more directly relevant to ecosystem impacts than existing metrics. Given that current models of the Earth system and climate do not simulate the complex processes required to properly address ecosystem drought recovery⁵, projected changes in land carbon uptake may be biased, potentially affecting climate-change projections. Schwalm and co-workers bring attention to that issue, thus allowing better plans to be made to adapt to or mitigate the effects of climate change. ■

**Sonia I. Seneviratne** is at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

**Philippe Ciais** is at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
e-mail: sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch

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STEM CELLS

# The cost of perpetual youth

**The ability to become nearly any cell type is restricted to eggs, sperm and primitive stem cells in very early embryos. Two studies reveal that maintaining this pluripotent state in vitro comes at a cost. SEE LETTERS P.219 & P.224**

THOMAS P. ZWAKA

Very early in embryonic development, cells that eventually give rise to the fetus are contained in a structure known as the inner cell mass. These cells are pluripotent stem cells (PSCs): they have virtually unlimited potential to become any cell type¹. The pluripotent stage is short (lasting just a few hours in mice), but it can be maintained *in vitro* for weeks or months. These laboratory conditions have been used for years to explore the inner workings of PSCs, and there has been much interest in using them to create populations of healthy cells that can replace those that have succumbed to disease. But what is the effect of artificially extending the pluripotent state? Two papers²,³ in this issue find that certain *in vitro* conditions can cause

> "MEK inhibitors should be used with caution when studying developmental processes."

mouse PSCs to undergo profound changes.

Naive pluripotency, the most primitive pluripotent state, is maintained *in vitro* by protecting PSCs from the influence of kinase enzymes that stimulate them to proliferate and take on particular identities. Typically, this is achieved using a system called 2i (ref. 4), which involves treating PSCs with two small molecules that act as kinase inhibitors: one inhibits the kinases MEK1 and MEK2, and the other inhibits the kinase GSK3. In the current studies, Choi *et al.*² (page 219) and Yagi *et al.*³ (page 224) found that preventing the natural

progression of naive PSCs, even for only a few weeks in culture, affected gene expression (Fig. 1).

One of the ways in which cells adopt specific identities is by activating particular genes while keeping others transcriptionally silent through the addition of methyl groups to the DNA. Patterns of DNA methylation are fairly predictable across different cell types, including naive PSCs. In the 2i-treated cells, however, the expected methylation pattern was lost across some genomic features, including repetitive DNA sequences and genes that are imprinted (those for which only one of two copies is expressed; for each copy, this is determined by whether it is inherited from the mother or the father). Loss of methylation would be expected to lead to expression of genes that should normally be silent in these cells.

Misexpression of imprinted genes is troubling, because it is strongly associated with developmental disorders such as Angelman syndrome and Prader-Willi syndrome⁵. Choi *et al.* also found another abnormality strongly associated with developmental disorders — 2i caused some cells to gain or lose whole chromosomes.

To see whether these abnormalities *in vitro* would actually affect the developing organism *in vivo*, both groups injected naive PSCs back into mouse embryos. Healthy PSCs readily developed alongside resident cells to form a mixed-lineage organism, and could even be coaxed to form entire embryos under particular conditions. By contrast, 2i-treated cells lost this ability over time and the embryos into which they were injected showed developmental abnormalities such as fetal overgrowth. Even