<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

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# Forbush phenomenon and the rains in the Amazon

Newton Silva de Lima

► To cite this version:

Newton Silva de Lima. Forbush phenomenon and the rains in the Amazon: Lecture. Doctoral. Manaus - Brasil, France. 2019. [hal-02895544](https://hal.science/hal-02895544)

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# Fenômeno FORBUSH e as chuvas na Amazônia

## Forbush phenomenon and the rains in the Amazon

NEWTON SILVA DE LIMA
ULBRA/SEDUC-AM

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>
• Summary

* Phenomenon FORBUSH

* Cosmic Shower

* Cherenkov Light Timeline

* Standard Model of Elementary Particles

* Theory

* Detectors

* Simulation

* Observation Station (1-2-3-4)

* Interaction at sea level

* Investigation

Observations with operational research on the connection of the 11-year Solar Cycle and the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and rainfall in the Amazon (1980-2030).
• **Phenomenon FORBUSH**

The increase in the intensity of solar cosmic rays is often followed by a decrease in the extra solar cosmic rays. This effect is known as Forbush reduction (Scott Ellsworth Forbush), which occurs due to the solar wind that carries the Sun's magnetic field, with (coronal mass ejection - CME) and thus, protects the earth from cosmic radiation.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Scott Ellsworth Forbush (1904-1984)</figcaption></figure>
* Cosmic Rays

They are highly energetic nuclei that cross our universe

* Composition

About 87% of the observed cosmic rays are Hydrogen nuclei, 12% are Helium nuclei and the rest are heavier elements such as Carbon and Iron

* Velocity

Close to light in a vacuum

* Energy

* of a tennis ball with v = 57 m / s for a mass of 0.00000000000001 < than the tennis ball.
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

# Chuveiro Cósmico
## “cosmic shower”

The cosmic bomber is more intense at the poles and smaller in the equatorial region, due to its alignment with the Earth's magnetic field.

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

Aerosol of 10 -100 µm
2.000 x increased

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

Componente
Eletron
Fotônica

Componente
Hadronica

Componente
Muonica
Chuveiro Cósmico e a cobertura de nuvens

“cosmic shower and the cloud cover”

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Henrik Svensmark</figcaption></figure>

Division of Solar System Physics at
the Danish National Space Institute
(DTU Space) | Copenhagen.

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 5. Latitude profile of zonal average values of the correlation between the cosmic ray flux and the cloud cover over the oceans. The zonal averages have been derived corresponding to geornagnetic latitudes (dipole field with pole at 78.5°N 291°E).</figcaption></figure>
Cherenkov Light Timeline

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>Marie
Curie</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Pavel
Alekseyevich
Cherenkov</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Ilia
Mikhailovitch
Frank</figcaption></figure>

1900

1932

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Igor</figcaption></figure>

Yevgenyevich
Tamm

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

1958

Nobel Prize
# Teoria (Theory)

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

$$cos\theta_c = \frac{1}{\beta_n}$$

$$\beta_n = \frac{vn}{c}$$
Letter | Published: 14 February 1959

# Cosmic Radiation and the Weather

EDWARD P. NEY

*Nature* **183**, 451–452(1959) | Cite this article

76 Accesses

156 Citations

19 Altmetric

Metrics

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

Fig. 2. Percentage reduction in atmospheric ionization during the last solar cycle. The percentage change is calculated with respect to the value of the ionization at sunspot minimum in 1954.

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

Source: Frank B. McDonald, 2012, Feb.6.

## "Raios Cósmicos podem afetar o tempo e o clima"

"Cosmic rays can affect weather and climate" p. 451 – Nature 183 | 1959.
Phenomenon Forbush

* Significant coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun to Earth.

* The FORBUSH phenomenon is the decrease in cosmic rays by CME.

* The number of particles that reach sea level, on average, is one particle per second in each square centimeter.
Phenomenon FORBUSH

* Detectors (Embedded)

* ACE – Advanced Composition Explorer

* CGRO - Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (Colapso)

* ISS – AMS (Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer)

* Detectors (Observation Station)

* Haverah Park

* Cascade

* Pierre Auger

* IceCube

* Simulation and Research
Embedded in Satellite

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>

Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)

http://son.nasa.gov/tass/magnetosphere/sat_ace.htm

2/7/2008
# Embedded in Satellite

CGRO - Compton Gamma Ray Observatory

The CGRO Mission(1991 - 2000) - The Imaging Compton Telescope (COMPTEL)

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>CGRO / COMPTEL 1.8 MeV, 5 Years Observing Time</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>
Embedded in ISS

International Spatial Station – ISS / AMS (Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer)

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>
Como um chuveiro de Raios Cósmicos interage com a Atmosfera?
How does a shower of Cosmic Rays interact with the Atmosphere?
<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

Start intense
cosmic shower

10 ~ 15 km

20 ~ 50 km

ionization by cosmic rays

time = -400 µs
<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

**isotropic environment**
the speed of light and
optical properties have
no privileged directions

Start intense
cosmic shower

time = -300 µs
<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

Start intense cosmic shower

time = -200 µs
<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Start intense cosmic shower

time = -100 µs
<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

time = 0 µs
<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

Hajo Drescher, Frankfurt U.
elétrons | pósitrons

e⁻ | e⁺

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

Hajo Drescher, Frankfurt U.

fótons

γ

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /></figure>

Hajo Drescher, Frankfurt U.

Luz Visível - visible light

múons

µ⁺⁻⁰

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

Hajo Drescher, Frankfurt U.

nêutrons

n

<figure><img src="image_31.png" /></figure>

Hajo Drescher, Frankfurt U.

pesados - heavy
<figure><img src="image_32.png" /></figure>

# Haverah Park

Was operated by the Physics Department of the University of Leeds
(1970-1993) north Yorkshire Moors in the United Kingdom
Situated on 12 square kilometers of farmland

<figure><img src="image_33.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_34.png" /><figcaption>Cosmic Ray Spectra of Various Experiments</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_35.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_37.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /></figure>
# Cascade

KIT- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (since 1825)

Campus North - National Large-scale Laboratory - Helmholtz Association

250 estações de superfície – 30 antenas de RF (40 – 80 MHz)

<figure><img src="image_39.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_40.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_41.png" /><figcaption>Cascade in
relation to sea
level</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_42.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_43.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_44.png" /></figure>

3

<figure><img src="image_45.png" /></figure>

1899-1993

PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY | Malargüe - Argentina (Mendoza)

<figure><img src="image_46.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_47.png" /></figure>
# Pierre Auger (http://www.auger.org/)

## Cheronkov Effect

1.600 tanks (3000 km² area)

<figure><img src="image_48.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_49.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_50.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_51.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_52.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_53.png" /></figure>
# Surface Station - devices

<figure><img src="image_54.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_55.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_56.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

# A Cherenkov Radiation Detector for the Auger Project

<figure><img src="image_57.png" /></figure>

## Isotropic medium

continues and
directional

Cherenkov Light
<figure><img src="image_58.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_59.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_60.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_61.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_62.png" /></figure>

A Cherenkov Radiation
Detector for the
Auger Project

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY | Malargüe - Argentina (Mendoza)

<figure><img src="image_63.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_64.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_65.png" /></figure>
Alignment of tanks

<figure><img src="image_66.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_67.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_68.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_69.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_70.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_71.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_72.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_73.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_74.png" /></figure>

PIERRE
AUGER
OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_75.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_76.png" /></figure>
Cherenkov Light
Physics

<figure><img src="image_77.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_78.png" /></figure>

ICECUBE
SOUTH POLE NEUTRINO OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_79.png" /></figure>

O IceCube Neutrino Observatory na Estação Polar Amundsen – Scott na Antártica.
São milhares de sensores localizados sob o gelo antártico, distribuídos por um quilômetro cúbico.

<figure><img src="image_80.png" /><figcaption>Roald Engelbregt Gravning Amundsen (1872-1928)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_81.png" /><figcaption>Robert Falcon Scott (1868-1912)</figcaption></figure>

Source: https://icecube.wis.edu/
IceCube Neutrino Observatory
<figure><img src="image_82.png" /></figure>

# ICECUBE
## SOUTH POLE NEUTRINO OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_83.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_84.png" /></figure>

Source: https://icecube.wis.edu/
IceCube Neutrino Observatory
<figure><img src="image_85.png" /></figure>

ICECUBE
SOUTH POLE NEUTRINO OBSERVATORY

<figure><img src="image_86.png" /></figure>

IceCube drilling tower and hose reel in December 2009 | 2013

<figure><img src="image_87.png" /></figure>

Source: https://icecube.wis.edu/
IceCube Neutrino Observatory
<figure><img src="image_88.png" /><figcaption>Image of the ice cube diagram.</figcaption></figure>

Alert IC170922A was a muon neutrino with an estimated energy of ~300 TeV. Blazar TXS0506+06, a massive black hole shooting with powerful jets of high-energy particles pointing to Earth, is located within less 0.1 degrees from this neutrino and at a distance somewhere between 1.3 and 4.3 billion light years (redshift between 0.1 and 0.4).

<figure><img src="image_89.png" /></figure>

Source: https://icecube.wis.edu/
IceCube Neutrino Observatory
<figure><img src="image_90.png" /></figure>

# ICECUBE
## SOUTH POLE NEUTRINO OBSERVATORY

Energy astrophysical neutrinos

<figure><img src="image_91.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_92.png" /></figure>

1

IceCube high-energy astrophysical neutrinos

<figure><img src="image_93.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_94.png" /></figure>

2

<figure><img src="image_95.png" /></figure>

IceCube high-energy astrophysical neutrinos

IceCube event
with simulated Cherenkov cone

<figure><img src="image_96.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_97.png" /></figure>

3

IceCube high-energy astrophysical neutrinos

IceCube event
with simulated Cherenkov cone

<figure><img src="image_98.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_99.png" /></figure>

4

<figure><img src="image_100.png" /></figure>

"Taklampa," one of the Digital Optical Modules of IceCube's hole #85

Source: https://icecube.wis.edu/
IceCube Neutrino Observatory
<figure><img src="image_101.png" /></figure>

CURRENT

<figure><img src="image_102.png" /></figure>

UPGRADE
# Interaction at sea level

$h\nu$ (photon)

* Shock and / or absorption section (photons)

1. Photoelectric Effect - Absorption ($h\nu < 5 \times 10^4$ eV)

2. Spreading - Shock (Thomson or Compton)
($5 \times 10^4$ eV < $h\nu$ < $5 \times 10^7$ eV)

3. Production of pairs - Shock $h\nu > 5 \times 10^7$ eV
(bremsstrahlug process)
# Bremsstrahlug Process

<figure><img src="image_103.png" /></figure>
# Cosmic Ray Spectrum

<figure><img src="image_104.png" /></figure>
Cosmic Ray Monitoring

<figure><img src="image_105.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 1.** The evolution of (b) cloud water content (SSM/I), (c) liquid water cloud fraction (MODIS), and (d) low IR-detected clouds (ISCCP) is here averaged for the 5 strongest Forbush decreases that their data sets have in common (order numbers 1, 3, 4, 6, and 7 in Table 1) and is compared with (a) the corresponding evolution of fine aerosol particles in the lower atmosphere (AERONET). In (a) each data point is the daily mean from about 40 AERONET stations world-wide, using stations with more than 20 measurements a day. Red curves show % changes in GCR neutron counts at Climax. The broken horizontal lines denote the mean for the first 15 days before the Forbush minimum, and the hatched zones show ±1σ for the data, estimated from the average variance of a large number of randomly chosen periods of 36 days of each of the four data sets. The effects on clouds and aerosols are not dominated by any single event among the 5 averaged. Examples of SSM/I data for several individual events are shown in the auxiliary material.</figcaption></figure>

Source:H. Svensmark, E. F. Christensen. *Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar-climate relationships*. *Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics*, **59**, 11 (1997) 1225.
# Cosmic Ray Monitoring

<table><caption>**Table 1.** Twenty-Six Solar Events in the Period 1987–2007 are Here Ranked According to Their Depression of Ionization in the Earth’s Lower Atmosphere, Gauged as a Percentage of the Normal Overall Variation in Ionization During the Course of a Solar Cycleª</caption><thead><tr><td>Order</td><td>Date</td><td>Decrease (%)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>31/10/2003</td><td>119</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>13/6/1991</td><td>87</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>19/1/2005</td><td>83</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>13/9/2005</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>15/3/1989</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>16/7/2000</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>12/4/2001</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>29/10/1991</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>9/7/1991</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>29/11/1989</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>10/11/2004</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>26/9/2001</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>25/3/1991</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>17/7/2005</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>25/9/1998</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>27/7/2004</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>10/9/1992</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>31/5/2003</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>25/11/2001</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>15/5/2005</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>28/8/2001</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>27/8/1998</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>10/5/1992</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>27/2/1992</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>18/2/1999</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>2/5/1998</td><td>28</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source:H. Svensmark, E. F. Christensen. *Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar-climate relationships*. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59, 11 (1997) 1225.
# Low influence of Cosmic Rays on the equatorial region

Cosmic Ray and the Weather
(NATURE,183)p. 451-452. 1959

<figure><img src="image_106.png" /></figure>

## Equator in the vertical direction

Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar-climate relationships. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59, 11 (1997) 1225

<figure><img src="image_107.png" /></figure>

Fig. 2. Percentage reduction in atmospheric ionization during the last solar cycle. The percentage change is calculated with respect to the value of the ionization at sunspot minimum in 1954

<figure><img src="image_108.png" /></figure>

Fig. 5. Latitude profile of zonal average values of the correlation between the cosmic ray flux and the cloud cover over the oceans. The zonal averages have been derived corresponding to geostationary latitudes (dipole field with pole at 78.5°N 291°E).
Observations with operational research on the connection of the 11-year Solar Cycle and the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and rainfall in the Amazon (1980-2030).

Newton Silva de Lima\*†, Eriberto Façanha\*†, Alan dos Santos Ferreira\*, Aldemir Malveira††, José Cavalcante††, Roseilson Souza do Vale‡, Daniel Valentim Mansur‡

\*Lutheran University Center of Manaus (Geosciences - Mathematics) / †Federal University of Amazonas (Mathematics)/

‡Federal University of West of Pará (Geosciences), †† (Secretary of Education and Quality of Teaching of the State of Amazonas), \*Federal University of Juiz de Fora.

<figure><img src="image_109.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_110.png" /></figure>
# Observations with operational research on the connection of the 11-year Solar Cycle and the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and rainfall in the Amazon (1980-2030).

Newton Silva de Lima*††, Eriberto Façanha*††, Alan dos Santos Ferreira*, Aldemir Malveira††, José Cavalcante††, Roseilson Souza do Vale‡, Daniel Valentim Mansur⁺

*Lutheran University Center of Manaus (Geosciences - Mathematics) / †Federal University of Amazonas (Mathematics)/

‡Federal University of West of Pará (Geosciences), †† (Secretary of Education and Quality of Teaching of the State of Amazonas), *Federal University of Juiz de Fora.

††*†Manaus (Brazil) / †Santarém (Brazil) / *Juiz de Fora (Brazil)

(newtonulbra@gmail.com, eribertofacanha@seduc.net, alans_ferreira@hotmail.com, amoliveira@gmail.com, psi.josecavalcante@gmail.com, roseilsondovale@gmail.com, danielvmansur@gmail.com)

<figure><img src="image_111.png" /></figure>

## Solar Cycle 1980-2020

<figure><img src="image_112.png" /></figure>

<table><caption>Regression Statistics</caption><tbody><tr><td>R multiple</td><td>0,9913744</td></tr><tr><td>R-Square</td><td>0,982823202</td></tr><tr><td>R-square adjusted</td><td>0,977097602</td></tr><tr><td>Standard Error</td><td>10,18566944</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><td>Predicted Y</td><td>Residue</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>246,1153034</td><td>-6,11530335</td></tr><tr><td>209,4566858</td><td>0,543314217</td></tr><tr><td>165,4663447</td><td>14,5336553</td></tr><tr><td>117,8101419</td><td>-7,810141865</td></tr><tr><td>81,1515243</td><td>-1,151524298</td></tr></tbody></table>

## EL NIÑO 1980-2020

<figure><img src="image_113.png" /></figure>

<table><caption>Regression Statistics</caption><tbody><tr><td>R multiple</td><td>0,898711725</td></tr><tr><td>R-Square</td><td>0,807682765</td></tr><tr><td>R-square adjusted</td><td>0,74357702</td></tr><tr><td>Standard Error</td><td>0,433541283</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><td>Predicted Y</td><td>Residue</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2,906912164</td><td>0,093087836</td></tr><tr><td>2,484183519</td><td>-0,484183519</td></tr><tr><td>1,976909146</td><td>0,523090854</td></tr><tr><td>1,427361908</td><td>0,072638092</td></tr><tr><td>1,004633263</td><td>-0,204633263</td></tr></tbody></table>
Cosmic Ray Monitoring

<figure><img src="image_114.png" /></figure>

Image Credit - Crédito da imagem: Jornal Acrítica – Manaus, BRAZIL 2010.
2010 Drought
Benjamin Constant – AM/Brazil

<figure><img src="image_115.png" /></figure>

Image Credit - Crédito da imagem: Jornal Acrítica – Manaus, BRAZIL 2010.
<figure><img src="image_116.png" /><figcaption>2010 Drought– Manaus – AM/Brazil</figcaption></figure>

Image Credit - Crédito da imagem: Jornal Acrítica – Manaus, BRAZIL 2010.
Thank you !

<figure><img src="image_117.png" /></figure>

Image Credit - Crédito da imagem: Jornal Acrítica – Manaus, BRAZIL 2010.
# Agradecimentos

acknowledgments

Volunteer researchers at Atmosphere Office 101 for their participation in fieldwork, collaborations and reading of texts.

<figure><img src="image_118.png" /></figure>