the ecosystem services measured. Carbon storage in vegetation and soil pools were measured or assessed using modern methodologies and technologies such as Medium InfraRed Spectroscopy MIRS, digital mapping/RS. Modelling (Ex-Act, Ex Ante Carbon-balance-Tool, FAO) was also used for upscaling and mapping for decision making on a sustainable development.

Some results showed that natural forests and agroecological systems were the agroecosystems which allow soil carbon sequestration and there could be as much as carbon in soil pool as in biomass pool, or even more (particularly in natural forests). Actually, they could store up to 100 Mg C·ha⁻¹ in the first 30 cm depth, and more than 270 Mg C·ha⁻¹ in 100 m depth[F2], particularity in forest ecosystems.

Soil biodiversity has especially been studied in cropped fields from a functional point of view. The aim of these studies is to understand which and how soil organisms are involved in different ecological functions, i.e., nutrient cycling, carbon dynamics and maintenance of soil structure. These studies are planned to be extended to forest systems.

The municipal solid waste (MSW) management studies showed that MSW composting reduced the amount of deposits in landfill (65% of initial mass of windrow) and creating product at relatively low-cost that is suitable for agricultural purposes. And after six years of organic fertilization the stock of SOM has increased by 48%, and the content of Olsen P and resin P, has increased respectively by 85% and 35%.

From a teaching point of view these issues are now integrated in different university courses such as the master of Agroecology (Higher School of Agriculture), the recent international master ABC (Agroecology, Biodiversity, Climate-Change, University of Antananarivo), the Doctoral School A2E (Agriculture, breeding, environment). The research conducted on soil ecosystem services for poverty alleviation and population development permitted the training of more than 15 PhDs. Efforts are also made by the team to train environment and agriculture stakeholders.

P-3325-03

## The influence of stand-level attributes on wind damage probability of industrial tree plantation areas in Mindanao, Philippines

A. Codilan (1); N. Shiraishi (2)

(1) Institute of Renewable Natural Resources, College of forestry and natural resources university of the Philippines los baños, Los Baños Laguna, Philippines; (2) Laboratory of Forest Management, Department of forest science university of tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

In the past decade, the increased frequency and intensity of tropical typhoons brought by the changing climate had clearly brought severe damages to industrial tree plantations (ITP) in the Philippines. These damages resulted in loss of high-value timber and increased economic costs. The risk of wind damage from strong storms and typhoons should be an important component of plantation management plans. The problem, however, is that risks that were not conceived before may become relevant in the present. Such is the case of an ITP in Mindanao, Philippines where the unprecedented increase in the frequency of storms and typhoons is now causing serious wind damages to plantations. In this consideration, the site's probability of risk to wind damage was estimated empirically using logistic regression analysis. Specifically, the influence of stand-level attributes such as average stand height, elevation and topographic exposure on damage probability were assessed. For the analysis, post-storm inventor data from 2012 Typhoon Bophya, in combination with previous stand inventory data, were used. Results show that all three stand-level variables are influential and that damage probability has a direct relationship with the variables. By considering constant terrain conditions, the effect of average stand height was determined. Results indicate that there are critical average stand height levels which put each site at high risk of being damaged. Critical stand heights of 25 m, 20 m and 10-15 m were identified for low, medium and high-risk level sites. This information, when combined with site productivity, could be used as a basis for determining risk-sensitive rotation ages at which certain species can be grown while reducing wind damage to plantation. Moreover, topographic stand

variables used were derived from DEM thereby addressing the high-cost issue associated with developing damage probability models. Amidst the issue of climate change and the projected increase in weather disturbances, these results can improve management plans and make them more relevant and responsive to changing times.

P-3325-04

## We don't want that offer «development»! The reinvention of the territories in the semi-arid region of Brazil and Argentina: the case of the peasant community radios

G. Lopes (1)

(1) University of Nairobi, Buenos Aires, Argentina

We speak from a epistemic place, from a locus of enunciation. In modernity, the actors and institutions of rational European thinking relate and proclaim themselves as if they were located in a higher stage of human knowledge (developed) and as such, they award themselves the right to invalidate, discard, desolate prize, ticketing as lower all the other modes of knowledge. From a decolonizing epistemic turn, we seek visibilize and put in dialog two experiences of reinvention of the territories, carried forward by rural communities in arid regions of Latin America (Sergipe, Brazil and Santiago del Estero, Argentina), through its community radios. To propose and disseminate via radio the proposal of coexistence with the semi-arid and drought, the peasantry is proposing living an alternative to development. In this way, resisting re-exist in the public policies of rural development, who proclaim the 'fight to the drought', the peasantry reinvets its territories face/stowing the advance of the hegemonic model of rural development (agro-exporting mining extractive), collecting/spreading ancestral knowledge and technologies for collection and distribution of water from rain, which allows them to reduce the impacts of climate change. Look at that process demands geopolitics of knowledge, therefore the translation inter-cultural is the methodological tool necessary to achieve thinking with and together with the other.

P-3325-05

## Exploring the links of artisanal fishery to climate change for developing a resilient livelihood for coastal communities in Ghana

O. Pabi (1)

(1) University of Ghana, Institute for Environment and Sanitation Studies, Accra, France

By nature, artisanal fishery operates on minimal investments and basic technology, and is therefore considered less adaptable and highly vulnerable. The paper argues that, though productive, it depends largely on natural marine productivity, which is closely linked to climatic elements. Studies conducted in the West African sub-region have not adequately demonstrated clearly the links between artisanal fishery and climate, due to the use of annual rather than intra-annual data and analyses. This impedes information generation suitable for informing fishery operational decisions, adaptive policy development and climate-resilient livelihood options. This study analyzed records of rainfall, atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and fish catch of three species with different sensitivities to temperature, on different time scales using time series (SSTs) and time series of SST using the Bakun Model. It examines the interactions between the variables at different time scales to determine exposures and sensitivities. It also sought verifications from fisher perspectives, based on experiences and knowledge in respect of climate change dynamics and real impacts on fishery. The results depicted clear association in trends of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures; seasonality of rainfall and upwelling; fish catch and SST intensities, with round sardinaella and anchovy showing clear sensitivities to temperature changes. Whereas the upwelling season period is typically three (3) months, in some cases it contributes some 60% of the total annual catch. Based on the evidence of high exposure and sensitivity of artisanal fishery to climate change, and overdependence of fishers on the artisanal fishery, the study proposes options of adaptive strategies for a climate change-resilient coastal fisher community livelihood.
## How can knowledge about health consequences promote acceptance of climate action?

R. Sauerborn (1); A. Flahault (2) ; D. Ganten, (3)

(1) Heidelberg University, Institute of public health, Heidelberg, Germany; (2) Université Paris 8 Descartes, Paris, France; (3) Charité University Hospital, Centre de santé publique virchow villermé, Berlin, Germany

Health is currently not prominent in climate policy. It is regarded as one of many climate sensitive sectors. However, arguments deriving from health and physiology, if properly communicated to climate decision makers, could play a strong role as a driving force to motivate them (and citizens) to accept new policies and new behaviors for the transformation towards a low carbon society. This is based on three sets of arguments, which have recently been corroborated by new evidence (since IPCC AR5) which we present, and which highlight further the need to communicate the strong influence health arguments should have at the COP21 negotiations. These sets of arguments are as follows:

(i) There are huge health benefits from climate friendly policies and behaviors. Although the concept is not new, but new evidence points to the large scope of known health benefits accruing from physical activity from walking and biking, insulated housing, low meat diets. Two recently identified co-benefits generate considerable additional health gains:

1. Large health gains from reducing local pollutants, particularly in low and middle income countries. Fine particles and black carbon have recently been recognized as "climate active pollutants". Black carbon are of particular interest for climate policy, as reducing its emissions leads to a fast reduction of stocks in the atmosphere.

2. Recent population projections till 2100 significantly

exceed previous UN estimates. Gerland et al. publishing their modeling results in Science 2014[1] project a 2100 population size of between 9.3 to 12.6 billions. This urgently call for even greater efforts for voluntary family planning, hence reaping even larger the linked health benefits accruing to mothers and their fewer children.

(ii) There are clear limits to society's capacity to adapt to the projected health impact of climate change. This holds to some extent in a 2°C world, but definitely in a 4°C warmer world. This holds even given maximal resource allocation to the task (e.g. 2).

(iii) Heat stress lead to reduced in work productivity in a warmer world, particularly in a 4° climate (e.g. 3). This concerns mainly the large populations in (sub-) tropical and arid areas and applies both to outdoor work, such as farming and construction and to indoor industrial production in non-air conditioned factories. Hence the physiological impossibility to work and generate further body heat is a health argument of significant bearing on economic output.

The above evidence-based health arguments provide a unique combination of positive news - reaping health gains from climate policy- and the reference to the ultimate driving force behind any climate policy and citizens behavior change: protecting our children's health from the adverse health impacts of climate change.

[1] Gerland P, Raftery AE, Sevcikova H, Li N, Gu D, Spoorenberg P, Smith KR, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, Olwoch J, Revich B, Sauerborn R, Chafe Z, Confalonieri U, Haines A (2014) Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report. Lancet 538(39924):1185-9.

[2] Woodward A, Smith KR, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, Olwoch J, Revich B, Sauerborn R, Chafe Z, Confalonieri U, Haines A (2014) Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report. Lancet 538(39924):1185-9.

[3] Lucas RA, Epstein Y, Kjellstrom (2014) Excessive occupational health exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers. Extreme Physiology & Medicine 3:14

# 3326 - The Mediterranean Basin in a warmer and drier world: challenges and opportunities

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3326-01

#### Increased frequency of major heatwaves and droughts in the Mediterranean

R. Trigo (1)

(1) Instituto Dom Luiz - Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

The last IPCC Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007, 2013) identify the Mediterranean region as a climate change and biodiversity "hot spot" with an increasing likelihood of suffering in the future drought episodes and severe heat waves. In fact, most studies using global and regional climate model results suggest that the Mediterranean will experience a general trend towards drier conditions during the 21st century. Thus, the overall tendency towards a drier Mediterranean climate is not independent of the simultaneous increase of the heatwaves frequency and magnitude in southern and central Europe. In fact, despite some contradictory results with state-of-the-art models, these combined tendencies towards a drier and more extreme Mediterranean climate fits particularly well into the expected changes predicted by most models for this climate change «hot spot» region (IPCC, 2007, 2013).

Summer heat waves are controlled by intense anticyclonic circulation, often associated with upper tropospheric blocking high. Heat waves have been shown to be responsible for excessive mortality, such as the 2003 heat wave in Western Europe that was associated with excessive +50,000 fatalities (García-Herrera et al., 2010). Equally, heatwave events can be the main drivers of large wildfires occurrence, such as those that occurred

in Portugal in 2003 with more than 430,000 ha burnt area (Trigo et al., 2006). Interestingly, this major heatwave was preceded by very dry conditions (winter and spring) in most of Western Europe, a factor that has been shown to play a crucial role in amplifying the heatwave magnitude (García-Herrera et al., 2010).

The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in Eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. In fact the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003 (Barriopedro et al., 2010). 'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events displayed exceptional seasonal temperatures in a 500-yr long context over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing 'mega-heatwaves' will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. The results also indicate that the temperature maxima observed during these heatwave episodes were associated with the simultaneous occurrence of outstanding anticyclonic blocking patterns and were preceded by relatively dry soils resulting from the lack of precipitation in winter and spring and an earlier retreat of snow cover.

The western Mediterranean is recurrently affected by drought episodes and therefore by the adverse effects associated that range from severe water shortages to economic losses and related social impacts. During the hydrological years of 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, Iberia was hit by two of the worst drought episodes ever recorded in this semi-arid region (Trigo et al., 2013). These two drought episodes were extreme in both its magnitude and spatial extent and appear to fit the tendency towards an increase in the frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin (Sousa et al., 2011) partially driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions (Hoerling et al., 2012; Trigo et al., 2013).
## The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium. A review of the evidence on economic performance, societal change and climatic fluctuations

E. Xoplaki (1) ; D. Fleitmann (2) ; A. Izdebski (3) ; J. Luterbacher (1) ; E. Zorita (4) ; S. Wagner (4) ; I. Te lis (5)

(1) Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Geography: Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen, Germany; (2) University of Reading, Department of archaeology: school of human and environmental sciences, Reading, United Kingdom; (3) Jagiellonian University, Institute of history: byzantine history department, Krakow, Poland; (4) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for coastal research, Geesthacht, Germany; (5) Academy of Athens, Research center for greek and latin literature, Athens, Greece

The study of the unusual climate patterns and their impact on ecosystems and societies during medieval times is of considerable interest for scholars of various disciplines such as past, current and future climate researchers, climate impacts scientists, historians, archaeologists, anthropologists, among others. The global, hemispheric and continental climate variability, the associated forcing factors and potential dynamic origin of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (in this work ca. 850 -1300 AD) have been the focus of many studies. Although the wealth of paleoclimate information for the last two millennia available in the Mediterranean basin and to a lesser extent in the Eastern Mediterranean, the character of paleoclimate records in combination with the inhomogeneous proxy records density and distribution during medieval times still restricts scientists from critically assessing the manifestation of the MCA on a regional scale and further to a high temporally and spatially resolved characterization of the climate patterns and associated societal and environmental impacts for specific areas as the Eastern Mediterranean.

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Byzantium, a medieval empire encompassing the northern part of the Eastern Mediterranean, had formed an expanding society with a thriving economy and complex political as well as cultural institutions. Byzantium as a medieval society left a considerable body of written evidence, enabling the use of detailed information to investigate potential connections between the societal impact of climate change in the period that spans from the moment when the Byzantine state and economy began to recover after the crisis of the so-called Dark Age, and until the period that followed the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204.

This study aims at assessing the manifestation of the MCA in the Eastern Mediterranean, and linking the existing knowledge about the character and extent of the climatic variability during medieval times in the Eastern Mediterranean, both historical (textual), palaeoenvironmental, and model-based, with what is known about the socio-economic processes taking place in the Byzantine Empire at that time.

## Rising concerns about ocean acidification and warming in the Mediterranean Sea

P. Ziveri (1)

(1) Instituto of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain

The Mediterranean Sea is facing large biogeochemical changes driven by both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Unprecedented emission rates of CO2 into the atmosphere are responsible for two important drivers such as ocean acidification and warming that are rapidly altering the physico-chemical seawater properties with consequences for the marine ecosystems and ecosystem services.

There are rising concerns since this is one of the regions warming fastest under climate change and acidifying with a similar rate as subtropical regions. This marginal sea have a relatively short residence times and deep waters are likely to lag changes in surface waters by a few decades at most.

I will review here the state of knowledge on the combined effects of ocean acidification and ocean warming in the Mediterranean. Recent results demonstrated that some key organisms that are endemic to the Mediterranean, major contributors to habitat building, and/or ecological function, or species of economic value in the region, are largely affected by the rapid change in pH and/or increase in seawater temperature. The regional vulnerabilities alter the capacity of coastal and marine systems to provide ecosystem services and consequently affect economic activities.

## Climate Change Distress and Subjective Well Being in Urban coastal cities of India and French Mediterranean region

R. Mudalari (1) ; A.S. Lindenmann (1)

(1) Aix-Marseille Université-CNRS, UMR ESPACE 7300, Aix-en-Provence, France

Human-induced global climate change and associated sea level rise (SLR) can have major adverse consequences for coastal ecosystems and societies (Hinkel & Klein, 2003). The IPCC in its various reports has established a clear link among global warming, climate change, SLR and coastal livelihood security, security and changing conditions in the course of climate change and sea-level rise. There is enough information to identify coastal areas that may be affected. Lambeck and Bard (2000) examined the evidence for relative sea-level change along the French Mediterranean coast. Considerable evidence has been presented in the past two decades for the sea-level change along the French Mediterranean coast. Poumadère et al. (2008) have found that in spite of the stance taken by political figures, general studies in France regarding climate hazards appear to lag behind scientific warnings. The established fact that anthropogenic factors account for one of the major contributors to climate change makes it necessary to probe into behavioral facets as in spite of the best possible efforts around the globe to combat climate change, it is felt that people are still not as seriously aware/ alarmed of the expected future risk as they should be. In view of this, the present study aims at gaining insight into issues of human-climate interaction through a comparative study between coastal cities of India and France. The study is intended at exploring how the coastal population of Indian and French metropolitan cities perceive climate change, how much aware and concerned they are, what guides their opinions, judgments, behaviours, and actions, how efficient they find themselves in adapting with the situation, what adaptive measures would be feasible for them, how competent do they find themselves in terms of coping strategies in relation to the current phenomenon of changing climate. The study enables comparison of data collected from 400 respondents of coastal population of metropolitan areas of Marseille (1,7 million inhabitants), Nice (a little less than 1 million inhabitants) with the researcher's existing data for Indian metropolitan coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai (400 respondents), both highly vulnerable to climate change related accelerated sea level rise. A specially designed questionnaire called Climate Change Perception Inventory (CCIPI) by Rishi et al. (2008) would be used to collect data from French population. The tool is based on Likert type format comprising of 48 items (in its original version) pertaining to perceptual and attitudinal components of climate change. A correlational research study design would be used to study the relation between different study variables which would be subject to regression analysis for making predictions in regard to climate change.

This study will provide an understanding of mindset of people in urban settlements on climate change. Not only this, it will also help to find out about the level of climate change distress of people with regard to climate change and also what are their actions and reactions in the changing climate scenario. Through Assessment of perceptions and attitudes of people in regard to Cognitive, Conative and Affective dimensions of Human-Climate Interface, one would better be able to determine the level of sharing responsibility regarding changing climate. By studying the pattern of behavioral adaptation to climate change, it would be possible to identify and compare what coping strategies people in coastal cities of India and France are using/ are required to deal with the phenomenon of climate change. The present study is directly in line with Article 6 of New Delhi Work Programme of UNFCCC (2007) in which special effort to foster psychological/behavioral change has been
stressed through public awareness. Hence, it fulfills a very
strong requirement to conduct behavioral study in the area
of climate change.

O-3326-02

Current and future Mediterranean Sea eco-
system functioning in relation with global
change: The MERMEX/MISTRALS project

R. Sempéré (1) ; X. Dureilier De Madron (2) ; C. Guieu (3) ;
I. Pairaud (4)

(1) CNRS, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography (MIO),
Marseille, France; (2) CEFREM, CNrs-université de perpignan,
Perpignan, France; (3) CNRS-UPMC, Villefranche sur mer,
France; (4) IFREMER, Lerpac, La Seyne/mer, France

The semi-enclosed nature of the Mediterranean Sea, together with a smaller inertia due to the relative short residence time of its water masses, make it highly reactive to external forcing, in particular variations of water, energy and matter fluxes at the interfaces. This region, which has been identified as a "hotspot" for climate change, is therefore expected to experience environmental impacts that are considerably greater than those in many other places around the world. These natural pressures interact with the increasing demographic and economic development of the Mediterranean, increasingly in coastal zone, making the Mediterranean even more sensitive. The current knowledge on and expected changes due to single forcing (hydrodynamics, solar radiation, temperature and acidification, chemical contaminants) and combined forcing (nutrient sources and stoichiometry, extreme events) affecting the biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem functioning are explored within the project MERMEX in the framework of MISTRALS program. MERMEX project based also on MERMEX as a whole "in crisis" results clearly showed that several processes including winter dense surface water convection, surface water stratification, river water discharge and episodic desert dust inputs play a major role on marine productivity as well as on organism community structure. Slight modifications of such processes that will be very likely affected by global change in 21st century can induce significant changes in Mediterranean Sea ecosystems.

(*) The MERMEX group, (2011) Marine ecosystems' responses to climatic and anthropogenic forcings in the Mediterranean, Progress In Oceanography, 91: 593-594.

O-3326-03

Climate Change Impact on Mediterranean
Forest Functioning

V. Baldy (3) ; C. Fernandez (1) ; IM. Reiter (2) ; E. Ormeno (3) ; JP. Orts (3) ; M. Santonja (1) ; AC. Génard (1) ; A. Bousquet-Mélou (1) ; C. Boissard (4) ; G. Castagnoli (5) ; A. Rotereau (2) ; T. Gauquelin (1)

(1) Aix-Marseille University, IMB, Marseille, France

(2) CNRS, Ecorrey. Aix-en-Provence, France; (3) CNRS, Imbe, Marseille, France; (4) Université Paris Paris Diderot, Lsce, Paris, France; (5) CNRS, Ohp-osu pytheas, Saint Michel l'Observatoire, France

The combination of significant past and current anthropogenic pressure and high level of biodiversity makes the Mediterranean one of the world's most threatened regions by current change, warranting its classification as a biome "in crisis". Mediterranean forests play major ecological, social and economic roles by providing goods and services and thereby represent a great asset and opportunity for the future of the Mediterranean. The functioning of Mediterranean forests is contingent on the existence of the dry summer period. Intensified and prolonged drought periods related to climate change are then of special concern in these ecosystems. Currently, our understanding of the response, in terms of biodiversity and functioning of Mediterranean forests to extreme drought conditions is limited. A wide variety of

methodological approaches have been put into practice
to examine the mechanisms by which climate change
could alter the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems,
such as the study of altitudinal climatic gradients,
latitudinal transects, and the experimental modification
of precipitation or warming. Controlled field experiments
are however costly and difficult to operate on a large scale
without introducing environmental modifications. Further,
the investigations of ecosystem functioning in relation
to climate change are very demanding, as they require
multi-scale and interdisciplinary research maintained
over long time-spans. We set up an experimental facility
with a rain exclusion system and a network of various
sensors at different levels of the forest situated in a French
Mediterranean natural old-growth oak forest, the Oak
Observatory at the OHP (O3HP).

This observatory allows investigating the functional
components of the ecosystem such as phenology, growth,
litter decomposition and emission of biogenic volatile
organic compounds by trees. Moreover, functional
changes in biodiversity-related traits in the context of
a drier climate are monitored, particularly the role of soil
biodiversity in the biogeochemical cycle.

The first results show a significant effect of the
experimental increase of the summer-drought period.
For example, prolonged drought slows down litter
decomposition and consequently nutrient availability,
and initially increased to eventually decrease the emission
rates of volatile organic compounds by trees in the
course of the drought period. These results point-out
the importance of addressing climate change on future
management practices for the sustainable development of
Mediterranean forest ecosystems.

O-3326-04

Lessons from the Past: Modeling past
human adaptation to climatic change in
the Mediterranean Basin

A. Kirman (1) ; A. Bondeau (2) ; D. Contreras, (3) ; J. Guiot (4) ; N. Hanaki (1) ; S. Thoron (5)

(1) Aix Marseilles University, GREQM, Aix en Provence,
France; (2) Institut Méditerranée de Diversité et
d'Écologie Marine et Continental, Aix-en-Provence, France;
(3) Aix Marseille University, Ot-med, Aix en Provence,
France; (4) CNRS, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France; (5)
Université Paris Est Creteil, Liphar, Paris, France

The Mediterranean Basin has a well-documented history of climatic fluctuations throughout the span of its animal occupation. Detailing past climatic changes and predicting those in the future is thought of as the task for sophisticated climate modeling, while investigating the human consequences of climate change remains a challenge for the social sciences. The AMENOPHYS Project combines the two and explores the limits of cultural adaptability to climatic shifts in the Mediterranean through a modeling approach, combining paleoclimatic data, GIS-based landscape evolution modeling, agroecosystem modeling, and agent-based modeling to ask how past climate change in the Mediterranean directly affected the lives of the region's inhabitants, and which factors were most salient in rendering climatic changes more or less surviveable.

There is an abundance of literature - archaeological, historical, paleoclimatic, and paleoenvironmental born out of the reasonable premise that past climatic shifts were of magnitudes that must have had cultural consequences. Such work, however, has struggled to move beyond correlation; we aim to articulate these links between paleoenvironmental and cultural change and to thereby tackle what has been a persistent challenge. This will improve our understanding of cultural trajectories, of human ecological footprints, and provide a strategy for untangling human and environmental histories in the long term. It will make past human experience directly relevant to current global realities and challenges.

Our models aim to provide explicit, well-formulated
mechanisms linking humans and environments, thereby
enabling the articulation of testable hypotheses that can
be compared to empirical evidence. Questions of scale and
resolution are fundamental. Environmental parameters
are generally the purview of environmental modeling and
paleoclimatic studies. Where spatial scales are regional
and temporal scales are centennial, if not millennial. In
contrast, social scientific explanation relies fundamentally on anthropological models of behavior - i.e., human decision-making at local and annual or decadal scales.

Agent based modeling can contribute significantly to reducing this important interpretative gap. We model the human consequences of climatic change, with a view to exploring their variability across different geographies, production regimes, subsistence practice and technology, and available resources, demographic, sociopolitical and economic contexts, and environmental inheritances. This will provide a means of articulating linking mechanisms where they cannot be directly observed.

Using landscape evolution and agroecosystem models in a feedback system with agent-based models of small Mediterranean communities, and starting from a specific example of Provençal geography, this project explores the effects of climatic shifts, legacies of human activity, available subsistence options and technologies, and community size and organization on vulnerability and resilience.

## 3326-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3326-01

#### Modelling blooms of comb jellyfish - Membiopsis leidiy - population under Mediterranean climate change

E. Alekseenko (1) ; M. Baklouti (1) ; F. Carlotti (1)

(1) Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Marseille, France

The massive outburst of gelatinous plankton has important socio-economic impacts particularly affecting tourism, fishing, fish farming, and also impact on the structure of the pelagic ecosystem. Some species are opportunistic invaders that can cause permanent damage to the native fauna. This is particularly the case of comb jellyfish Membiopsis leidiy, a kind of gelatinous plankton that can form dense patches and, as a predator of fish larvae and other zooplankton, can have disastrous consequences on fish stocks and other aquatic resources. The potential for outbreaks of this species is based on its growth capacity and high tolerance to environmental conditions particularly considering salinity and temperature, allowing M. leidiy establishment in highly contrasting ecosystems (CIESM, 2014). High numbers of M. leidiy along the Mediterranean coasts of Israel, Italy, and Spain and other Mediterranean countries (CIESM, 2014) were recorded during the last years. This fact strongly suggests that M. leidiy population is established in the Mediterranean coasts. However the specific causes and mechanisms of M. leidiy development are not well identified, and the lack of data makes any further investigation difficult (Boero, 2013).

Modelling can provide an additional understanding of mechanisms through the definition of the environmental characteristics that could support and/or favor M. leidiy and the description of the associated changes in the planktonic community structure. The aim of the present study is to understand the potential direct (temperature, salinity, nutrient enrichment) and indirect (through food chain changes) impacts of climate changes on M. leidiy blooms in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean Sea) using the biogeochemical model Eco3M-MED (Baklouti et al., 2006a,b; Alekseenko et al., 2014) coupled with the hydrodynamical model MARS3D (Lazure&Dumas, 2008). A M. leidiy compartment has been introduced in the Eco3M-MED model, in such a way that some of the physiological and demographic traits of this species are represented. A study on M. leidiy physiology and eating behavior has first been conducted with the biogeochemical model. Then, different scenarios have been simulated in order to analyze the role of several environmental parameters, namely, temperature, salinity and nutrient inputs of the Rhone River, on the seasonal variability of M. leidiy and the structure of the trophic web. The study is focused on the period 2009-2011 since the outputs of the model during this period have already been partially validated (Alekseenko et al., 2014).

#### Acknowledgements

The present research is a contribution to the Labex OT-Med (n° ANR-11-LABX-0061) funded by the French

Government «Investissements d'Avenir» program of the French National Research Agency (ANR) through the A*MIDEX project (n° ANR-11-1IDEX-0001-02).

#### References

Alekseenko E., Raybaud V., Espinasse B., Carlotti F., Queguiner B., Thouvenin B., Garreau P., Baklouti M. (2014) Seasonal dynamics and stoichiometry of the planktonic community in the NW Mediterranean Sea: a 3D modeling approach. Ocean Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s10236-013-0669-2.

Baklouti M., Diaz F., Pinazo C., Faure V., Queguiner B. (2006a) Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems and description of a new model. Prog Oceanogr 71:1-33.

Baklouti M., Faure V., Pawlowski L., Sciandra A. (2006b) Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular tool (Eo3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling. Prog Oceanogr 71:34-58.

Boero F. (2013) Review of jellyfish blooms in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. General fisheries commission for the Mediterranean, Studies and reviews, N92.

CIESM (2014) Report of the Joint CIESM/ICES Workshop on Membiopsis Science (JWMS)

Lazure P., Dumas F. (2008) An external-internal mode coupling for a 3D hydrodynamical model for applications at regional scale (MARS). Adv Water Resour 31(2):233-250.

### P-3326-02

#### Surface runoff evaluation watershed Tunisian-Algerian border modeling with software WEAP

M. Ben Abdelmalek (1) ; I. Nouiri, (1)

(1) l'Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, génie rural eaux et forets, city El mahrajane,El manzah 1, Tunis, Tunisie

Tunisia is considered among the countries least endowed with water resources in the Mediterranean basin. The most significant changes in rainfall and making the periods of drought longer are the factors aggravating the imbalance between supply and demand water.

The main objective of this work is the hydrological study of the major trans-boundary watersheds Tunisian-Algerian. It is referred trans-boundary runoff modeling and assessment of surface water inflows to Tunisia of Algerian border regions.

The methodology used was based on the creation of a daily database (1 September 2009 - 31 August 2013) of rainfall in 43 stations, statistical analysis and spatial measurements. It also used for modeling the physical system of trans-boundary basins the software WEAP. The assessment of daily surface resources, demands and runoff were used to develop a daily dynamic management model.

The modeling results showed that Algeria's surface flows to Tunisia are mainly presented through the Oued Melijedra and El Kbir. The average annual intake is around 8204 million m³ which 22.41% are insured by the river of Melijedra, 63.51% from Melijedra and 14.08% from El Kbir one. The largest flows are carried by the Melijedra river which is valued at 2505 m³/s. The Melijedra and El Kbir river have recorded peak flows 806 and 732 m³/s, respectively, during the period of the study.

The simulation of climate scenarios and investment, showed that the change in the water flow follows the variation of rainfall. It is shown by simulation that if rainfall increases by 200% (very humid scenario), runoff can increase up to 265%. On the contrary, if rainfall decreases from 80% (very dry scenario), surface runoff would be reduced by about 85%.The first version of transboundary river basin management model developed Tunisian-Algerian proved useful for modeling of surface water resources for large hydrological catchments.
## Statistical and experimental approaches for demonstrating the effect of climate changes on the flowering dates as a road map for tree adaptations in the Mediterranean region

A. El Yaacoubi (1); A. Oukabli (2); M. Hafidi (1); JM. Legave (3)

(1) Moulay Ismail university, Meknes, Morocco; (2) INRA, Meknes, (3) INRA, Montpellier, France

In this study two approaches were used to highlight the effect of climate on the tree behavior. The statistical approach was carried out in three geographically contrasting countries of the Mediterranean region. It aims to understand the impact of climate change, particularly the temperature increases, on phonological stage of three taxonomically different species (early and late-spring-flowering species). Three species, namely olive, apple and almond were investigated to highlight the phenological behavior of one species at different locations (mild and cold regions) and different species at one location. Climate and phenological data were collected from Morocco, France and Italy over the last 40 years. The experimental approach was done in mild (Morocco) and temperate (France) areas in the Mediterranean in order to interpret the effect of the climate changes on the same site. Analysis of data on temperature showed a strong warming in the northern locations (cold areas), particularly in Nimes, compared to the northern ones (warmer locations) during the period October to May. The marked spring warming in all locations since the end of 1980s in France (the beginning of 1990s in Italy and Morocco) resulted in blooming earliness, with regional patterns in terms of impact. The late-spring-flowering species (olive and apple) showed a remarkable sensitivity to continuous warming in different areas. No flowering success was observed early-spring-flowering species (almond) due to the stability of mean temperature during February. Thus, a strong control of mean temperature during the forcing period on flowering earliness of apple was found in all areas. Physiological processes (dormancy and dormancy release) of trees during the dormant and growth period explain, in part, the regional differences observed in flowering dates among sites and species. In terms of tree dormancy dynamics, deeper apple dormancy was evoked in the temperature area compared to the mild one, showing a strong correlation with winter temperature. In Morocco, the almond and low-chill apple cultivars seemed to behave similarly, showing low Mean Time of Budburst and permanently high Rate of Budburst. The dates of breaking dormancy approached by fresh and dry masses of floral buds showed the same time of dormancy release on almond cultivars in Morocco. However, in apple, the significant increase of masses was earlier in fresh bud mass, while it was later in dry bud masses in both sites. The transition from the endodormancy to the ecodormant phase of apple flowered was distinct in both locations. Mechanisms of solutes importation and utilization by floral buds were different in almond and apple. Overall, the pronounced warming in the southern France reflects a relative trend toward aridity of climate at this site, and consequently some vulnerability of fruit trees. As result, the process of dormancy and flowering in a high latitude locations (northern areas) the future of climate change in a low latitude locations at present (southern areas), particularly for apple. The agronomic consequences caused by global warming are already expressed in the southern areas (floral abortion, heterogeneity and delayed flowering time ...) where the apple cropping is limited only in the upland location (high altitude). In France, ominously, production irregularities related to climate change were frequent during the 2000s. This requires immediate intervention to find the ways of adaptation or improvement as part of a regional strategy to fight against this scourge in context of food security. Creation of new varieties with low chill requirement is a way of improvement and plant breeding while the change of vulnerable crop by others (such as almond well adapted in mild climate areas) is a way of adaptation.

## Modelling how climate change will impact growth and productivity of evergreen Mediterranean forests using a process-based model and multiproxy data

G. Gaia Iquierdo (1); F. Guibal, (2); R. Joffre, (3); JM. Ourcival, (3); G. Simioni, (4); J. Guiot (5)

(1) CERECE-CNRS, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) IMBE, Aix-en-Provence, France; (3) CEFE, Montpellier, France; (4) INRA, Avignon, France; (5) CNRS, CERECE, Aix-en-Provence, France

Different physiological processes determine gross primary productivity (GPP) and carbon allocation in relation to environmental forcing. Climatic variability limits these two processes differently and this needs to be properly addressed in process-based forest models. Generally, empirical models have been preferentially used in dendronchronological studies. However, it is necessary to better address the interaction between climate and other factors such as CO2 to properly assess the instability in the climate-growth response expressed by trees and increase the accuracy of the modelled relationships both in forward and inverse models. In this study we developed an existing mechanistic model originally implemented with dendronchronological data. The model was calibrated to fit a combination of eddy covariance CO2 flux data, dendronchronological time series of secondary growth and forest inventory data at two Mediterranean evergreen forests. Among other differences with the original formulation, the model was modified to be climate explicit in the key processes addressing acclimation of plant species and allocation. It succeeded to fit both the high- and the low-frequency response of stand GPP and carbon allocation to the stem as calculated from tree-rings. Simulations suggest a decrease in mean stomatal conductance in response to environmental changes and an increase in mean annual intrinsic water use efficiency in both species during the last 50 years. However, this was not translated on a parallel increase in simulated ecosystem water use efficiency. A long-term decrease in annual GPP matched the local trend in precipitation since the 1970s observed in one site. In contrast, GPP did not show a negative trend and the trees buffered the climatic variability observed at the site where long-term precipitation remained stable. Long-term trends in GPP did not match those in growth, in agreement with the C-sink hypothesis. There is a great potential to use the model with abundant dendronchronological data to analyse future forest performance under climate change and to predict the effects of conduction and convection corrections. This would help to understand how different interfering factors produce divergence in the climatic signal expressed in tree-rings.

## Climate variability, ecosystem response and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (Greece) during the last 1500 years

A. Gogou (1); M. Triantaphyllou (2); E. Xoplaki (3); J. Luterbacher (3); C. Parinos (1); M. Dimiza (2); I. Bouloubassi (4); G. Rousakis (1); K. Koulis (2); D. Fleitmann (5); B. Martrat (2); A. Izdebski (7); H. Kaberi (1); M. Athanasios (2); V. Lykousis (1)

(1) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Anavysos, Greece; (2) University of Athens, Faculty of geology and geoenvironment, Athens, Greece; (3) Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Geography: Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen, Germany; (4) LOCEAN, Université pierre et marie curie, Paris, France; (5) University of Reading, Department of archaeology, School of human and environmental sciences, Reading, United Kingdom; (6) IDAEO-CISC, Barcelona, Spain; (7) Jagiellonian University, Institute of history: byzantine history department, Krakow, Poland

The first high resolution paleoecological study of the last 1.5 Ka BP at the northeastern Mediterranean, using organic geochemical, micropaleontological and palynological proxy indices, allowed the recognition of recent climatic changes and ecosystem response during the Dark Ages (DA; 500-900 AD), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1250 AD), Little Ice Age (LIA; 1250-1850 AD) and Instrumental Period (IP; 1850-2010 AD). Multicore M2, retrieved in 2011 from the north Aegean Sea
(40°05.15'N, 24°32.68'W, 1018m depth), was sectioned at 0.5 cm intervals, and analyzed for lipid biomarkers (Gogou et al., 2007), coccolithophores (Triantaphyllou et al., 2009), and pollen assemblages (Triantaphyllou et al., 2009; Kouli et al., 2012). Stratigraphic framework was based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating. Past SSTS (mean annual) were reconstructed using the alkenone unsaturation index Uk'37 ((U= C37.2/C37.2 + C37.3) and the global calibration by Conte et al. (2006). For the estimation of the net primary production (NPP), the equation of Incarbona et al. (2008), NPP = 885.864 + (-138.963 x ln (F. profunda %)), has been used. In addition, the use of the index between F. profunda (F) and E. huxleyi (E) abundances: S = (S + F)/F, is applied as stratification S-index (Triantaphyllou et al., 2009; Triantaphyllou, 2011). The ratio H=AP/St (AP: ArboREAL taxa excluding Pinus; St: Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Asteraceae and Poaceae), has been used as a humidity index (H-index; Kouli et al., 2012).

The SST-record reveals significant variability with marked
cool/warm intervals. SSTS increase from 650-1375 AD
and then decrease till the late 1600s, except for a warm
episode in early 1600s (LIA) with values as high as ~20°C.
After a sharp decrease ending at ~1700 AD, SSTS rise at
approximately 0.6°C/100 yrs till the present day. Towards
the end of DA period, a drop in SST and decrement of
terrestrial inputs suggest a tendency towards more arid
conditions. The onset of MCA is characterized by an
increase in SSTS and elevated terrestrial inputs along
with high values for S index between ~1000-1200 AD,
characteristic of humid climate conditions, that positively
impact the photic zone productivity, due to enhanced
nutrients supply from riverine inputs and continental
runoffns. The onset of the wet season marked by an increase in
water column stratification between ~1350-1650 AD, and
a transition from arid conditions between ~1250-1400
AD to humid conditions after ~1400 AD. Finally, the IP
is characterized by a significant rise in SSTS along with
enhanced terrestrial inputs and algal productivity in the
euphotic zone.

Atmospheric modes of variability play an important role on
surface water heat fluxes that in turn have consequences
in the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, in
particular during winter when cold winds cause important
heat loss and stratification breakdown. Because of the
tight coupling with the atmospheric forcing, the sampling
area has proven ideally situated to investigate the coupling
of paleogeographic conditions with major atmospheric
circulation patterns. Finally, a historical approach has
been applied, in order to explore the complex interactions
between climate, environment and human activity in the
north Aegean region.

P-3326-06

New forms of governance and collective
action for agricultural irrigation canal
management in southern France: what
opportunities in the context of climate
change?

M. Jacqué (1) ; C. Aspe (1)

(1) Aix Marseille Université, Lped, labexmed, Marseille, France

One of the socio-cultural specifications found on both
the north and south shores of the Mediterranean is the
inglen of local societies for managing water shortages
and/or the unequal distribution of water in different areas.
In European Mediterranean countries two main types
of techniques have developed over the past centuries:
either rainwater harvesting via terrace systems or gravity-
fed canals supplied by springs and watercourses more
broadly. The infrastructure designed and created by Arab
societies-which is still used today, particularly in oases-is
based on the most part on subsurface irrigation systems
for recovering infiltration water; these systems are called
quanat, fogga or khettar, depending on the country.
Approaches to management in the North and South have
created knowledge and know-how and forged what could
be called a "culture of water" that can be useful in
times of crisis, like that posed by the threat of climate change.

Farmers in the south of France-and in Provence more
specifically-have created organisations (ASAs) since
the late 19th century that manage issues related to the
supply of water and its division; these have also allowed

local agriculture to become extremely competitive on
international markets, particularly for fruits and vegetables.
At the scale of France's PACA region, there are over 600
ASAs that manage canals and their irrigated perimeter still
 extends over a very large part of the region's territory.
These organisations are experienced in water resource
management and their know-how has allowed them to
adapt and evolve with changes in Mediterranean irrigation
systems (e.g., gravity-fed, overhead and drip irrigation).

This presentation will analyse how maintaining canal-
based hydraulic infrastructure is of central importance for
perturbing sustainable farming at the regional scale.
For this to occur, ASAs must now accept that the canals
they manage also have other uses; their management
needs to take into account the multi-functionality of
the canals and embrace new challenges which are both
environmental and social (replenishing the water table,
flood management, promoting the heritage value of the
canals, etc.). We will take an historical approach to show
how agricultural actors created types of organisations
that were both unique and solidarity-based which allowed
them to manage droughts and flooding (particularly in the
Durance basin). Other forms of multi-actor governance
are emerging today: e.g., canal contracts, the signing of
bi- or multi-lateral partnership agreements and "Agora"
assemblies for the operational governance of water. Such
projects are proof of the dynamic thrust of the agricultural
profession, but they also raise questions about the funding
of such initiatives and therefore their long-term viability.

P-3326-07

Climate change impacts on water and local
adaptation strategies in the Mediterranean:
security versus sustainability

I. La Jeunesse (1) ; R. Ludwig (2) ; P. Quevauviller (3) ; C.

(1) University François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324
Citeres, Geography, Tours, France; (2) Ludwig-Maximilians-
University Munich (LMU), Institute of geography, Munich,
Germany; (3) Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Hydrology and
hydrological engineering, Brussels, Belgium; (4) University
François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324 Citeres, Cost, Tours,
France

Introduction

Climate change is predicted to lead to raising temperatures
in the Mediterranean region and reduced rainfall, with
possible worsening of water resource shortages that
Mediterranean basin is already experiencing. Climate
change is thus probably likely to generate tense
situations among users. A conservative approach is to
believe that changes correspond to situations that have
already occurred in the past and that, with a successful
management of these conflicts through appropriate
integrated water management with local actors, there
would be no new challenge in facing these situations.
However, in the present state of knowledge on the impact
of climate changes, it is now recognized that the chains
of causes and effects will lead to different situations.
Thus, tools and procedures previously developed, might
become obsolete if they are not updated continuously with
advances in knowledge about criteria explaining the chain
of causes and effects between climate changes, water
availability and water uses.

In this context, models undeniably represent an
educational support for the dissemination of scientific
results in the science-policy interface to develop. But
this support needs to rely on the validity of databases,
the moderation of dissemination by experts as close as
possible to local stakeholders and last but not least, for
Europe, on the common implementation strategy of the
water framework directive in coherence with the European
and national adaptation strategies and plans.

Methods and Materials

The EU FP7 research program CLIMB, embedded in
a cluster of three EU projects (the CLIWASEC cluster)
about climate change-water-security, aimed to decrease
uncertainties of hydrological modelling in the context
of climate changes in the Mediterranean region. For this
purpose, CLIMB defined an ensemble of 4 GCM-RCM-
combinations to generate climate data to be used by a set
of hydrological models implemented at catchment scale
for 7 case studies. Two periods have been considered:
1971-1990 as the reference period, and 2041-2070 as
the future period. To support the local dissemination of
scientific results of CLIMB, interactions with stakeholders have been engaged in the context of a study of water uses and water rivalries.

## Results and Discussion

Impacts of climate change on temperatures, precipitations and flows have been described. They essentially affect the availability of water. According to interviewed stakeholders, it is notable that, for the Mediterranean region represented by the CLIMB case studies, the main pressure on water resource during the last 20 years has been linked to the population growth and urbanization. The results have also underlined that the terms « climate change » have not been cited by stakeholders during both interviews and open questions in the questionnaires related to threat on water resource. In other words, and considering that climate change is not considered as an issue for the stakeholders, the evolution of rainfall quantity over the next 20 years is overlooked by them. This confirms the need to continue efforts on disseminating facts and figures about climate change to local water managers.

## Conclusion

In the Mediterranean region represented by 7 case studies within the CLIMB project, the main answer to the increase of water demand, without considering climate change as a driving force in the Mediterranean region, is the progressive transfer of water. It seems that there is no spatial limit to this transfer with respect to national borders.

It has also been spotlighted that all analyzed water management plans mention desalination as an option, both for European case studies and non-European ones. It seems that this represents the next step of water supplying in the Mediterranean region. While these adaptation provide water security, it is not coherent with climate change mitigation or adaptation strategies.

## P-3326-08

### Adaptive action pathways in rural and urban systems facing the challenges of Mediterranean changing climates: Comparative views of efforts and propositions for Europe and South America

E. Martinez (1); L. Bascuñán (2); K. Ruiz-Carrasco (3); A. Berrios (4)

(1) UCN-CEAZA, Ciencias del Mar, Coquimbo, Chile; (2) CEAZA, Plant physiology, La Serena, Chile; (3) Fac. de Ciencias Agronómicas, Producción agrícola, laboratorio de bioinformática y genómica funcional, universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; (4) Laboratoire d'Apprentissage, Didactique, Evaluation et Formation, Sciences de l'éducation, espe, université d'Aix-marseille, Aix-en-Provence, France

Four millions is the car fleet recently recorded in Chile, a South American country inhabited by only 17 million people. This ratio of 23 cars for every 100 persons is causing great circulation problems in Santiago, where one third of the population live but also in smaller towns. Big cities or European agglomérations suffer from similar problems. Concomitantly, our evaluations of social representation among car drivers about individual contribution to Green House Gases (GHG) indicate deep lack of basic knowledge on quantities emitted and on the ways to do effective compensation. This is probably due to our low human sensitive and visual appreciation of GHG and our lesser agro knowledge towards desertification in countries like Chile is equal than that of South Sahel regions.

In our study we show that in countries with high economic growth, like Chile during the last four decades, social representation of sustainable development in education systems is more associated to economic development than to social or environmental effects. Besides, critical visions on the development models are still much less present, although climate change towards desertification in countries like Chile is equal than that of South Sahel regions.

Finally we argue that connecting GHG compensation strategies to zero carbon agricultural practices could give impressive benefits to new urban and rural development strategies. More conscientiousness of climatic changes will result from strong government decisions, but our authorities must be well informed. The rural-urban connections could be based on existing taxation laws (like car circulation permits in Chile) and incentives to short-distance agro ecological production-consumption

agreements (like AMAPs of France). However further growth of such initiatives would need still stronger governance positions to limit growth of big cities, and to tax all carbon emitting production/consumption chains towards the promotion of changes of our ongoing agricultural and transportation paradigms. Conversely, the constraints to these changes could be counterbalanced by lower costs associated to improvement of poor public health-related parameters, another facet of modern globalization patterns. This statement is supported by the high nutritional value of some crops, like Andean quinoa, that respond well to agro ecological practices and can be cultivated worldwide under extreme climates. Our propositions could be implemented in all Mediterranean regions of the world, for which European and South American ones are good examples. These regions share strong urbanization, loss of biodiversity and migratory patterns among neighbouring countries so that education to have critical positions on these challenges should also be promoted.

Our hope with our vision is to contribute to:

1. More knowledge to take decisions on actions to reduce and to compensate GHG emissions, particularly those concerning agricultural practices and transport (that added are 25% of world emitted GHG).

2. To make this knowledge understandable to the most wide public

3. To link our propositions to sustainable health-care and food chains

4. To give examples of ongoing practices in the mentioned fields, from two distant Mediterranean regions (France and Chile) that are socially sustainable

5. To give education/formation to all publics a central role for making the changes a real possibility

6. To link urban and rural zones to give them hope of new opportunities for sustainable development

7. To make all public, from individuals to highest authorities, more sensible to accept the needed changes

We are the first generation (and the last one) that can make the changes. We cannot lose this opportunity is everybody's task and everybody's responsibility. We have all communication facilities for making COP21 a source of world's hope not only for future climate based visions but also for building new human societies, where interconnections can be much more acknowledged.

## P-3326-09

### Predicted climate change effects in a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate scenarios and management options

J. Prats Rodríguez (1); PA. Danis (1)

(1) Pôle Irfste - Onema Plans d'eau, Aix-en-Provence, France

In the Mediterranean area, water is a scarce resource, especially in the summer season. Good management of the resource is thus essential, not only regarding quantitative aspects, but also regarding ecological and water quality. Climate change in the region is expected to result in an increase in air temperature that will affect water temperatures.

Water temperature is an important variable in freshwater ecosystems. It can affect the biology of freshwater organisms in many ways; it can modify vital cycles, physiology, distribution areas, behaviour, etc. In addition, the vertical distribution of heat in a lake or reservoir determines its hydrodynamic behaviour and by extension water quality. The thermal and hydrodynamic behaviour of a reservoir depends on external driving factors (hydrology, meteorology) and internal characteristics of the water body (depth of the inlets and outlets, morphometry, reservoir management). Process-based hydrodynamic models allow investigating the effect of the alteration of these characteristics and are interesting tools to address the effects of climate change in Mediterranean reservoirs and testing possible adaptation actions. In this work, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir - Bimont (Provence region, France). To account for the hydrodynamic model uncertainty, we used two different calibrations: one based
on expert judgement, and the other based on the method of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation.

To consider the effect of climate change on the reservoir we simulated the hydrodynamic behaviour of Bimont under the projections obtained during the project CORDEX of three different regional climate models (RCMs) for each of the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This was done using were those issued by the models HIRAMHS and RACMO22, applied to the output of the GCM ICHEC-EC-EARTH; and by the model RCA4, applied to the output of the GCMs ICHEC-EC-EARTH, CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CMS and MOHC-HadGEM2-ES. We considered two time horizons: medium term (2036-2065) and long term (2066-2095).

We also considered different management options to see which the potentialities of adaptation to climate change are by varying water level, the temporal distribution and quantity of flow through the reservoir, and the outlet depth.

Water temperatures in the reservoir of Bimont are expected to increase during the present century, both in the eliptimetry and the hypolimetry. The stratification period will likely become longer. The elevation of the water level results in similar surface water temperatures, and slightly lower hypolimetry temperatures. Some modifications of the reservoir management have potential effects that can be more important than those of climate change.

## P-3326-10

### Accounting for ecological processes changes niche modeling predictions: adaptation of Mediterranean forests to climate change as a model

E. Rigolot (1) ; S. Oddou-Muratorio (1) ; F. Courbet (1) ; B. Fady (1) ; F. Lefèvre (1) ; N. Martin (1)

(1) INRA, Research Group: Ecology of Mediterranean Forest (URFM - UR 06929), Avignon cedex 9, France

Bioclimatic niche models predict drastic changes in the geographical distribution of forest species habitats by the end of the 21st century. However, and despite recent advances, they are limited in their ability to account for ecological and demographic processes involved in forest dynamics. In this talk, based on recent interdisciplinary research results in Mediterranean Pinus halepensis - Quercus ilex and Abies alba - Fagus sylvatica mixed forests, we will show how taking into consideration these processes changes local forest structure and composition as compared to non process-based models. The key processes to be integrated are: migration (dispersal and recruitment), genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. Migration, because it is constrained, limits the ability of species to track their optimal habitat. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation, on the other hand, facilitate local persistence when habitats become sub-optimal. However, in the Mediterranean, disturbances, such as forest fire and insect outbreaks are expected to rise to more frequent and severe levels. These new disturbance regimes may result in demographic, evolutionary and functional tipping points where mortality becomes too massive and reproduction too limited for tree populations to adapt and survive.

## P-3326-11

### Impact of climate change on marine and coastal biodiversity: the case of Algeria

O. Rouane Hacene (1)

(1) University of Oran 1, Laboratoire Réseau de Surveillance Environnementale (LRSE), Department of Biology, Oran, Algeria

Known for its arid and semi-arid climate, Algeria is highly prone to climate change. The last 50 years, an increase of events due to extreme weather was observed. Among the phenomena recorded in Climate Studies of the National Meteorology that reflect this change, we observe an increase in the frequency of torrential rains, especially in the highlands, which led to flooding for the first time. Other extreme events that have occurred: cyclogenesis, drought, heat wave and sand storms. Scientists have estimated that rainfall will decrease by about 20 percent in the coming years. They predict a shortcoming of the rainy season and higher temperatures of about 1° to 1.5° in

2020, which would have fatal consequences for 30 percent of animal species. They also feel that temperatures will rise by 3 °C by 2050 more due to global warming.

The flora and fauna (terrestrial and marine) have been greatly affected by this increase: the changing environmental conditions are favorable and/or unfavorable to certain environmental factors compared to others, which causes a change of environments and species of flora and fauna that constitute them.

Thus, the coastal areas were severely affected by the climate change. Today, it is permissible, in the light of scientific data to associate with threats to marine biodiversity three important parameters and determinants of climate change: (i) the warming waters, (ii) the elevation the sea level, (iii) water acidification. These changes will surely have consequences in medium and long-term on living marine communities in various ways. Especially that the Algeria includes a rich faunistic and floristic diversity.

According to the fourth national report on the implementation of the Convention on national biodiversity of March 2009, the known marine biodiversity amounts to 3183 species of which 3080 were confirmed after 1980. The marine flora is estimated at 713 species grouped in 71 genera and 38 families. If we add the coastal and island vegetation, marine and coastal bird life, the known total biodiversity of the Algerian coastal marine ecosystem is 4150 species, of which 4014 are confirmed for a total of 950 genera and 761 families. But it should be noted that these numbers do not reflect actual biodiversity but rather the known.

Through this contribution we will present aspects of the consequences of global warming on marine ecosystems and particularly on marine and coastal biodiversity and actions taken by Algeria to remedy this situation.

## P-3326-12

### An epidemiological assessment of stomatal ozone fluxes-based Critical Levels for Southern European forests

P. Sicard (1) ; A. De Marco (2) ; L. Dalstein-Richier (3) ; E. Paoletti (4)

(1) ACRI-HE, Environment, Sophia-Antipolis cedex, France; (2) Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, Italy; (3) GiEFS, Nice, France; (4) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la protezione sostenibile delle piante, Florence, Italy

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The Southeastern France and Northwestern Italy can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Southern forests are at the highest O3 risk in Europe where ground-level O3 is a pressing sanitary problem for ecosystem health. Exposure-based standards for protecting vegetation are not representative of actual field conditions. A biologically-sound stomatal flux-based standard has been proposed, although critical levels for protection still need to be validated. This innovative epidemiological assessment of forest responses to O3 was carried out in 54 plots in Southeastern France and Northwestern Italy in 2012 and 2013. Three O3 indices, namely the accumulated exposure AOT40, and the accumulated stomatal flux with and without an hourly threshold of uptake (POD1 and POD0) were compared. Stomatal O3 fluxes were modelled (DO3E) and correlated to measured forest-response indicators, i.e. crown defoliation, crown discoloration and visible foliar O3 injury. Soil water content, a key variable affecting the severity of visible foliar O3 injury, was included in DO3E. Based on flux-effect relationships, we derived species-specific exposure-based (CLEc) and flux-based critical levels (CLEf) for forest protection, by joining data from all plots and years. As AOT40 was better correlated with defoliation than with discoloration and visible injury, we selected defoliation as effect parameter for defining AOT40-based CLEc values. As a tree with defoliation above 25% is commonly rated as damaged, CLEc was calculated on the basis of a threshold of 25% average stand defoliation. As POD0 was better correlated with visible foliar O3 injury than with defoliation and discoloration, we selected visible foliar O3 injury as effect parameter and POD0 to model O3 metric. For defining CLEf values, defoliation was defined as damaged tree/stand based on visible foliar O3 injury is missing in
the literature. We thus based the selection of a visible foliar O3 injury threshold on a comparison of gas exchange of leaves with a range of visible O3 injury that was carried out in a 3-year-old O3-sensitive poplar plantation. Clef was derived from flux-effect functions for 15% of visible foliar O3 injury (stand level). We obtained Clec of 11.7 ppm.h AOT40 for P. cembra (high O3 sensitivity) and 24 ppm.h for P. halepensis (moderate O3 sensitivity). For broadleaved species, the average Clec was higher than for conifers (23.6 ppm.h AOT40) and similar in the two species with significant correlation between crown defoliation and AOT40, i.e. Fagus sylvatica (moderate O3 sensitivity) and Fraxinus excelsior (high O3 sensitivity). For conifers, Clef of 19 mmol.m-2 for P. cembra and 24 mmol.m-2 for P. halepensis were calculated. For broadleaved species, we obtained a Clef of 21 mmol.m-2 for Fagus sylvatica and of 19 mmol.m-2 for Fraxinus excelsior. To avoid an understanding of the real O3 uptake, we recommend the use of PODO calculated for hours with a non-null global radiation over the 24-h O3 accumulation window. We showed that an assessment based on PODO and on real plant symptoms is more appropriated than the concentration-based method. Indeed, PODO was better correlated with visible foliar O3 injury than AOT40, whereas AOT40 was better correlated with crown discoloration and defoliation (aspecific indicators).

In the current climate change context, a deterioration of the crown conditions was observed, likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in Southeastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (± 0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (± 1.95-4.59°C). Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management.

P-3326-13

## Sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean during the last 12,000 years: a tool to better constrain the future projection of sea-level rise

M. Vacchi (1); N. Marriner (2); C. Morhange (3); G. Spada (4); A. Fontana (5); A. Rovere (6)

(1) Aix-Marseille Université, CERΕΝΣ-IRD UMR 34,

Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) CNRS, Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249, Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France; (3) Aix-Marseille Université, CERΕΕ CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Cerege., Aix-en-Provence, France; (4) Urbino University, Department of mathematics, physics and informatics, Urbino, Italy; (5) Università di Padova, Dipartimento di scienze della terra, Padova, Italy; (6) MARUM, ZMT, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Global sea-level rise is the result of an increase in the ocean volume, which evolves from changes in ocean mass due to melting of continental glaciers and ice sheets, and the expansion of ocean water as it warms. The elevation of the ocean surface relative to the ocean floor is defined as a relative sea level (RSL), and any shift in height of either of these two surfaces produces a RSL change. Present-day sea level variations in the Mediterranean depend on various factors, including recent climatic forcing, tectonic activity, asthenospheric effects, and glacio-isostatic adjustment. Our understanding of current rates of sea-level rise from tide gauge and satellite data, requires correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects that are both calibrated to, and independently tested by, observations of former sea levels. With this purpose, we created a database of Holocene (last 12.0 ka) geological and geoarchaeological sea-level data across the Western Mediterranean. We considered ~600 published and unpublished sea-level data along the western Mediterranean Sea and we proposed a standardized approach for the production of index and limiting points following the protocol described by the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) projects 61, 200, 495 and 588. We then reconstructed the RSL histories in 21 regions located in Spain, France, Italy, Malta, Tunisia, Slovenia and Croatia. At the basis scale, RSL rose rapidly from 12.0 to 6.0 ka BP. Younger data showed a significant decrease in the rising rates in the last 6.0 ka. During the late Holocene (last 4.0 ka BP) GIA, sediment compaction and local neotectonic activity played a major role in controlling sea-level variability between regions. Data showed that sea-level was higher than today only in Tunisia.

Preliminary comparison with long-term tidal gauge data (>50 years) indicates an increase in rates of sea-level rise during the last 100 years.

Results of this study are relevant for understanding how GIA operates in the far field of late-Pleistocene ice sheets and to assess sea level rise hazards, which are particularly magnified in low-lying or subsiding coastal areas.

# 3327 - Adapting to Arctic Climate Change

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3327-01

#### EU-PolarNet - Connecting Science with Society

N. Biebow (1); K. Lochte (2)

(1) Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, International Cooperation, Bremerhaven, Germany; (2) Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Zentrum fuer Polar und Meeresforschung, Directorate, Bremerhaven, Germany

The rapid changes occurring in the Polar Regions are significantly influencing global climate with consequences for global society. European polar research has contributed critical knowledge to identifying the processes behind these rapid changes but, in contrast to lower latitudes, datasets from the Polar Regions are still insufficient to fully understand and more effectively predict the effects of change on our climate and society. This situation can only be improved by a more holistic integrated scientific approach, a higher degree of coordination of polar research and closer cooperation with all relevant actors on an international level.

The objectives of EU-PolarNet are to establish an ongoing dialogue between policymakers, business and industry leaders, local communities and scientists to increase mutual understanding and identify new ways of working that will deliver economic and societal benefits. The results of this dialogue will be brought together in a plan for an Integrated European Research Programme that will be co-

designed with all relevant stakeholders and coordinated with the activities of many other polar research nations beyond Europe, including Canada and the United States, with which consortium partners already have productive links.

### K-3327-02

#### Title not communicated

A. Oskal (1)

(1) International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry, Norway

Abstract not communicated

### O-3327-01

#### The adaptation challenge in the Arctic

J. Ford (1); T. Pearce, (2); G. Mcdowell, (1)

(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia

We reviewed published research on climate change adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience, to identify and characterize the nature and magnitude of the adaptation challenge facing the Arctic. Framing the results using Adger and Barnett's (2009) 'reasons for concern about adaptation,' we demonstrate that: (i) even in the context of >3C warming already documented across the Arctic in the last 30 years, it is not the speed or magnitude of climate change per se that poses a challenge to adaptation, but how climate change interacts with non-climatic factors; (ii) significant barriers are likely to constrain adaptation in absence of concerted action on
broader human development deficits in northern regions. These barriers span multiple scales and are linked to long-term trajectories of disempowerment, colonization, and globalization; (iii) the potential for maladaptation is being increased by a weakening of key sources of adaptive capacity, compounded by limited anticipatory actions across scales to prepare for future impacts; and (iv) communities and Indigenous organizations have played leading roles in adaptation decision-making in the North American Arctic and to a lesser extent in the Nordic countries, but in Russia the very nature of climate change as a potential risk is not agreed upon. The challenge of adaptation in the Arctic is thus formidable, yet the review suggests that drivers of vulnerability can be overcome, avoided, or reduced by individual and collective efforts across scales.

## O-3327-02

### APECS France, a network of French early-career polar researchers involved in education and outreach activities

P. Bourgain (1) ; AM. Thierry, (1) ; G. Lamarque, (1) ; C. Clément-Chastel, (1) ; M. Lacarra, (1) ; Z. Koenig, (1) ; F. Amélieuane, (1) ; S. Serre, (1) ; X. Meyer, (1) ; Y. Drocourt, (1) ; M. Gesta, (1) ; LPAC, Bilan (1)

(1) APECS-France,GNoble, France

APECS-France (www.apecs-france.org), the French national committee of the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS), is a young organization of volunteers created in 2013. Its objectives are to promote early-career polar scientists and to improve the dissemination of polar sciences towards the general public and school children in particular. APECS-France has developed several activities, projects and partnerships to better educate French polar students about the polar regions, better explaining their importance in the context of global climate change. For instance, the French polar week is organized twice a year, and thousands of pupils can exchange with polar scientists about their research and their life as young scientists. Every December 1st, APECS-France collaborates with OurSpaces, British foundation for the good governance of international spaces, to celebrate Antarctica Day, connecting young students to the French research polar station Dumont d'Urville in Antarctica. Schools are also involved to follow scientific expeditions: such long-term education and outreach projects imply resources for teachers, a blog, visits in classrooms, and/or oceanographic data analysis. APECS-France is now planning to edit a children's book using students' drawings as well as photographs taken during the Pax Arctica - On the Shoulders of Shackleton Expedition. More recently, APECS-France has developed a partnership with Wild-Touch (French non-profit organization created by Luc Lacquet, director of March of the Penguins) and CRI (The Centre for Research and Interdisciplinarity) to help students and teachers develop a scientific project about polar regions. In the frame of COP21, APECS-France aims at organizing a physical event in Paris to allow students from 15 to 18 to exchange with young polar researchers and representatives of the indigenous population from the Arctic about the impacts of climate change in the Arctic.

## O-3327-03

### The global economic implications of the melting of the Greenland ice sheet

M.J. Alvarez (1) ; D. Yumashev (1) ; G. Whiteman, (1) ; J. Wilkinson (2) ; P. Wadhams (3) ; C. Hope (4)

(1) Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands;
(2) British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom;
(3) University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom;
(4) University of Cambridge, Judge business school, Cambridge, United Kingdom

The Arctic has been changing at unprecedented rates over the past two decades, with the average rate of warming

in the region roughly twice as high as the global average (IPCC, 2014). According to WGI of the 5th Assessment Report by IPCC (2013), there is growing evidence that Arctic change may have far-reaching consequences across the globe. Yet the potential global economic impacts from specific physical changes in the Arctic region are largely unstudied (Whiteman et al., 2013). This paper contributes to this emerging research agenda by assessing potential economic impacts from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using the PAGE integrated assessment model. PAGE is one of the top three IAMs used for climate change policy analysis and estimation of economic impacts related to climate change. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been previously used to estimate the net present value of economic impacts of climate change (Stern, 2007; Nordhaus, 2008; Hope, 2011; Hope, 2013), explicitly considering the potential economic impacts of Arctic change has thus far only been applied to potential methane release in the East Siberian Sea (Whiteman et al., 2013).

IAMs are simplified representations of key relevant systems such as "emissions and their socioeconomic determinants, the atmosphere-ocean-climate system, ecosystems, socioeconomic impacts, and policy and responses" (Parson and Fisher-Vanden, 1997). However, to date, IAMs (including PAGE) do not directly incorporate physical change into model configurations, but rather rely upon temperature estimates. Thus, large irreversibilities such as sea level rise from increased melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) do not directly feed into the IAM structures. Current and future changes in GIS carry significant implications for the environment and for the global economy. To address this gap (and as part of the ICE-ARC project [1]), we adopt a transdisciplinary approach to adapt PAGE in order to evaluate the economic impact of different scenarios of GIS change.

More specifically, in this paper we (i) propose model modifications to integrate the physical changes in the GIS explicitly into the PAGE IAM, and (ii) identify how best to assess economic impacts (costs and benefits) resulting from it. This includes looking into the potential drivers of the GIS melt - such as overall Arctic warming and black carbon pollution from the increasing wildfires (Benning et al., 2014; Doherty et al., 2013) as well as the main mechanisms by which the GIS melting will cause economic impacts globally. These include: sea level rise (which highlights the need to de-couple the GIS and Antarctic ice sheets in the PAGE sea level rise module), changing atmospheric and ocean circulations and its effect on weather patterns in Europe, North America and further afield. In order to achieve this, we develop distinct scenarios for the GIS melt under a given RCP (global emissions scenario) and work out the relevant economic costs globally using PAGE-ICE.References: Benning, L.G.A.M.Anesio,S.Lutz&M.Tranter(2014),Biological impact onGreenland's albedo,Nature Geoscience,7,691/ Doherty,S.J.,T.C.Grenfell,S.Forsström,D.L. Hegg,R.E.branT,S.G.Warren(2013),Observed vertical redistribution of black carbon and other insoluble light-absorbing particles in melting snow, Geophys.Res. Atmos.,118, 5553-5569/ Hope,C.(2011),The PAGE09 integrated assessment model:A technical description, Cambridge Judge Business School Working Paper, 4(11)/Hope, C. (2013), Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO2:why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002,Climatic Change,117,3,Page531-543/IPC9 (2013). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of WGI. To the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC/IPCPC (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report, 5th Assessment Report. IPCC/Nordhaus,W.D.(2008).A question of balance-weighing the options on global warming policies,Yale University Press/Parson,E.,Fisher-Vanden,K.(1997),Integrated assessment models of global climate change, Annu. Rev. Energy Environ, 22:589-628/ Stern,N.et al.(2007).The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press/ Whitman,C.,Hope,C.,Wadhams,P.(2013)Vast costs of Arctic change,Nature Comment,499: 40-403[1]This study is part of a programme of research funded by the European Union Framework 7 Programme, Grant Agreement 603887
# 3328 - Climate Change Challenges, Adaptation Barriers and Responses

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3328-01

#### Why is socially-just climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa so challenging? A review of barriers identified from empirical cases

**S. Shackleton (1) ; G. Ziervogel (2)**

(1) Rhodes University, Environmental Science, Grahamstown, South Africa; (2) University of Cape Town, Department of environmental and geographical sciences, Cape Town, South Africa

To enhance understanding of the process of climate change adaptation and to facilitate the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptation strategies, deeper consideration of the factors that impede adaptation is required. Barriers to climate change adaptation are, consequently, being increasingly reported. But, despite this progress, knowledge of barriers that hamper adaptation in developing countries remains limited, especially in relation to underlying causes of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. To further improve understanding of barriers to adaptation and identify gaps in the state-of-the-art knowledge, this paper presents a synthesis of empirical literature from sub-Saharan Africa focusing on vulnerable, natural resource dependent communities and livelihoods. Our review illustrates that: 1) local level studies that reveal barriers to adaptation are diverse, although there is a propensity for studies on small-holder farmers; 2) many of the studies identify several barriers to adaptation, but appreciation of their interactions and compounded impacts remains scarce; and 3) most of the barriers uncovered relate broadly to biophysical, knowledge and financial constraints on agricultural production and rural development. More hidden and under-acknowledged political, social and psychological barriers are rarely mentioned, unless captured in studies that specifically set out to investigate these. We argue that research on barriers needs to start asking why these barriers emerge, how they work together to shape adaptation processes, who they affect most, and what is needed to overcome them.

### K-3328-02

**E. Madela-Mntla (1)**

(1) ICSU Regional Office for Africa, Pretoria, South Africa

Background: Africa occupies a unique position when it comes to Climate Change challenges. It is one of the most vulnerable continents yet has very limited capacity for adaptation and recovery. Some of its challenges owe to its poor economic and social developmental states. A brief illustration of this:

According to the UN Office of The High Representative For The Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries And Small Island Developing States (UN-LORRLS), of the 48 Least Developed countries (LDCs), 34 are in Africa; of the 31 Landlocked developing countries (LLDCs), 15 are in Africa; and of the 39 Small Island Developing States (SIDS), 8 are in Africa.

Climate Change challenges that accompany this situation include those associated with sea-level rise and the impact of coastal and marine resources, which have very serious consequences particularly for SIDS; biodiversity and ecosystems changes, which have a negative impact on tourism, food security and other socio-ecosystems services; frequent and severe natural disasters like mudslides, floods, droughts and veld fires; poor infrastructure, leading to high transportation and communication costs.

The ultimate result of these challenges is a ripple effect on health and human well-being, availability of land and water resources, management of waste, renewable energy options, infrastructure choices as well as national finances. Resilience declines, mortality rates go up, life expectancies decline and ultimately sustainable socio-

economic development is retarded. Needless to say, some countries in Africa have a fair level of development, but they are not immune to some of these regional impacts of climate change. The cost of adaptation rises by the day in a region already facing many challenges like poverty. The IPCC 2007 Report estimates that the cost of adaptation to climate change in Africa could amount to at least 5 to 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and other projected impacts like increased water stress, reduction in yields from rainfed agriculture, as well as an increase in arid and semi-arid land could worsen in the next few years (Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007). Considering the scale of poverty for most African populations, adaptation is costly, it's about survival.

Call for Concerted Action: Africa is generally reported as one of the least environmental polluters because of its low industrial development. However, it stands to suffer dire consequences from the effects of climate change. Information available points to evidence that all sectors will be generally affected. Why then, you may ask, is there no or poor concerted response to mitigate the impacts. We take a closer look at the key role players on the continent and how their collaborative efforts could positively impact Africa's climate change mitigation and adaptation attempts.

### O-3328-01

#### African Climate Change Challenges: Innovative Climate Adaptation Practices in Ghana

**A. Yeboah Obeng (1)**

(1) Foresight Generation Group, Environment and Ecosystems Division, Cantonments - Accra, Ghana

##### INTRODUCTION

Recent studies by IFPRI suggest crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa may decline 5-22% by 2050, pushing large numbers of people deeper into hunger and poverty as both of Africa's staple crops, maize and sorghum, are expected to be badly hit by increasing severe weather.

Climate Change and its adverse impacts is been felt across many regions of Ghana and also in the majority of ACP states, this project has been under implementation since 2012 particularly as a solution to the visible effects and impacts of erratic climatic patterns affecting crop and animal production in catchment communities in Ghana while encouraging environmentally friendly practices by farmers, also this project seeks to promote innovative ICT Climate driven agricultural practices and policies which has successfully increased agricultural productivity and profits in catchment communities and have proved to be very resilient to climate change on agriculture for the targeted farming communities thereby improving food security in the project's catchment towns in Ghana and replication prospects in other African countries.

##### DESCRIPTION

ITU data suggest that mobile penetration reached 84.8 per cent in 2011 compared with fixed line penetration of 1.14 per cent, although the number of individual subscribers may be lower than that in practice, also mobile network coverage is not uniform across Ghana as areas that lack coverage are typically those with small population centers, which cannot economically support the installation of a base station. Ghana's mobile networks were in the past was predominantly second generation (2G) GSM technology which did not provide data connectivity however there has been major upgrade to faster third generation (3G) Technology which is enabling many citizens and businesses to enjoy the enormous benefits of faster mobile telephone and data services across Ghana.

##### BEST CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONS PRACTICES IN AGRINICULTURE

Setting up virtual online farmer association meetings - To enable farmers from different farming towns and communities to communicate and shear challenges and the problems they have been facing in their villages, access to financing, new agricultural practices and new innovative
systems and practices including information and
latest prices for agriculture produce and farm crops.
Remote col-laboration and applications of ICT's for virtual
interactions will significantly reduce greenhouse
gas emissions caused by travel. 0.5 billion tonnes CO2e can
be saved without any major investments.

Agriculture commerce - we have successfully assisted farmers to sell their farm produce through selected Messaging Applications on mobile devices of farmers and that of our project field teams assisted farmers to be in touch with buyers of their farm produce without the need for the farmers to travel long distances to sell their foods at nearby marketing centers , by this online transaction fuel usage and emission by vehicles have been saved and time and money have been saved for the farmers using this service depending on uptake, these solutions can avoid more than a billion tonnes of CO2e.

0-3328-02

Scaling up adaptation in Africa - barriers and enablers

P. Urquhart (1)

(1) Independent researcher, Cape Town, South Africa

A critical question as the adaptation discourse and practice matures in Africa relates to how to scale up adaptation in a way that is sustainable, and promotes social justice goals. A relevant point concerns the types of transformations that are needed in structures and processes to support and scale up sustainable adaptation. There is no doubt that governance interventions at all levels, as well as have decisive role to play in these transformations. Currently, we have incomplete, under-resourced and fragmented institutional frameworks and overall low levels of adaptive capacity, especially competency at local government level, to manage complex socio-ecological change. Structural poverty and inequity are common found many countries. Despite these commonalities, the local context for adaptation differs not only between countries, but between sub-national regions and indeed within localities, for different groupings of people. So how do we begin to identify the kind of steps needed on the transformation pathway? The IPCC 5th Assessment Report identified a number of key principles for building adaptive capacity and climate resilience, based on extensive assessment of the academic and grey literature, on adaptation in Africa. The principles point to necessary changes in policy and practice, and to the role of adaptive management and social institutional learning in scaling up adaptation. This presentation will examine the potential of these principles to play a role in overcoming key barriers towards scaling up sustainable adaptation in Africa, and raise questions for discussion on the social and process dimensions of enabling scaling up.

3328-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-3328-01

Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evi-
dence from Tanzania and Uganda

A. Arslan (1); S. Asfaw, (1); F. Belotti, (2); A. Piano-Mortari,
(2); P. Karfakis (1); L. Lipper, (1)

(1) FAO of the UN, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy; (2) University of Tor Vergata, Ceis, Rome, Italy

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the world's most food-
insecure region characterized by high levels of child
mortality and poverty and low levels of human&physical
capital (FAO, 2009). SSA countries, including Tanzania
and Uganda, heavily depend on a smallholder-based
agricultural sector, which in turn makes them particularly
vulnerable to climate change. An estimated 90% of the
population depends on rain-fed crop production
and pastoralism to meet its basic food needs (Patt and Winkler,
2007). Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns
have direct effects on yields, as well as indirect effects
through changes in irrigation water availability, thus
exacerbating the impacts of droughts, soil degradation
and decline in biodiversity. The combination of these
effects makes agriculture the most vulnerable sector
affected by climate change.

There is an emerging economic literature on weather

variations and their implications for a wide set of economic
outcomes ranging from economic growth, to migration
and agriculture (Dell et al., 2013). Most of this literature
is concerned with establishing linkages between these
outcomes of interest and weather using data at aggregated
levels including cross-country studies. These studies
establish a negative relationship between economic
growth/income and hot climates in general, and a positive
one between income and rainfall in SSA (Miguel et al.,
2004; Barrios et al., 2010; Hsiang, 2010; Brueckner and
Ciccone, 2011; Dell et al., 2012).

In countries where agricultural sector is largely based on small-holders and dominates the economy, the main linkages between weather and incomes go through agriculture, and when the latter is based on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, this link also has substantial implications for security. Since welfare, since climate weather fluctuations translate into income shocks especially faced by small-holders, not only are the average incomes low but also they are highly volatile. In addition to the important policy implications that can be derived from the investigation of these issues, we focus on weather-related risk for two reasons. First, the growing availability of high-quality geo-referenced data on weather makes this important and exogenous component of environmental risk measurable along with the related households' response. Second, although it is not the only exogenous factor affecting income and consumption of rural households, it is spatially covariant. As pointed out by Binswanger (1993), this feature makes it an important determinant of income variability that is most likely to influence welfare.

The goal of this study is, therefore, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of weather risk on rural households' welfare in two countries in SSA. We use nationally representative household data together with a set of novel weather adaptation indicators based on interpolated gridded and re-analysis weather data that capture the peculiar features of short term and long term variations in rainfall and temperature. In particular, we estimate the impact of weather shocks on a rich set of welfare indicators (including total income, total expenditure, food expenditure and its share in total expenditure and calorie intake) and investigate whether and how they vary by different definitions of shocks. Moreover, we also analyze the interactions of these climate risk-welfare relationships with a number of policy relevant variables such as access to extension information, access to credit and the use of sustainable land management (SLM) practices, which may help farmers to cope with risk and smooth income (Morduch, 1995).

Our results show that both rainfall and maximum
temperature variability (defined for the last 25, 10, 5
and 3 years) exert a negative impact on welfare, even if
results vary according to the reference period with respect
to which the indicators are computed. Our estimates also
show a significant income-smoothing for households that
have adopted SLM practices, highlighting the role of SLM
as a potential ex-ante risk coping strategy. We also find
that the most vulnerable rural households are much more
negatively affected by a rainfall deficit compared to the
households in the top income quantile. We compare and
contrast the results from Tanzania and Uganda to draw
site-specific and evidence-based policy implications
to improve welfare outcomes under increasingly
unpredictable weather conditions in these countries.

P-3328-02

The African Safe Water Supply Challenges: Moringa Technology as an Alternative Approach

A. Bashir Yusuf (1)

(1) AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, ZARIA, KADUNA, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Water is one of the most important indicator of climate change today. This is seen in the two extremes of water supply, either being short through erratic rain spills affecting consumption and agriculture or excessive supply through flooding. In traditional African rural settlement, water for human consumption during the rain season in particular is highly turbid with the consequence of water-borne diseases. In the developing world, more than 1 billion people cannot get clean drinking water... The United Nations says that dirty water causes 80 percent
of diseases in the developing world, and kills 10 million people annually.” While similar water supply during same season in urban centres is difficult to treat by water works departments since they depend on the clarification by importing aluminium sulphate. However, the existence of a natural coagulant from Moringa seed holds promise as a substitute to the chemical coagulant of alum. The practice of scientifically proven both at small household and large community pilot scale. Local varieties of Moringa from Nigeria has been shown to contain 18-20% cationic protein (MOCP) that is active on coagulation and against common microbes in untreated water. MOCP act on microbe by fusing their inner and outer membranes affecting exchange within and outside their cellular component. This paper highlights role of the Moringa seed technology in water treatment as a substitute to aluminium sulphate with the aim of portable safe drinking provision in Africa and other developing nations.

P-3328-03

## Harnessing the multidimensional climate and non-climate signals to livelihood vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Kaffrine, Sénégal

A. Diouf (1) ; C. Mbow (1)

(1) Institut de la Science de l'Environnement, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Dakar-Senegal, Senegal

The Increase of rainfall variability has since the beginning of the 1970s, one of the common threats of semi-arid countries with rapid and strong anomalies and extreme events. Kaffrine is one of those areas facing these rapidly dynamic climate challenges that affect both productive systems and populations income. The history of this site exhibits a long lasting domination of groundnut production for cash and high dependence to forest resources for income and mostly as a livelihood asset. Both groundnut cultivation as a rain fed crop and forest resources are impacted severely by climate variability, but the magnitude of the climate drivers has not been fully accounted systematically in assessing vulnerability and subsequently developing adaption strategies that are context specific.

With the increasing local empowerment through devolution of natural resources management, many policy decisions are undertaken for sustainable development and socioeconomic resilience at community level. Accounting for the real weight of climatic factor on livelihood dynamics can help better understand the essential variables or derivatives of vulnerability to co-design proper options for improved resilience in Kaffrine. The research question is how to set a series of criteria and climate indicators that help understand the real climate impact and how population are responding to those. The central hypothesis is that climate may be important but not sufficient information to understand communities' vulnerability in poverty condition.

We combined data collection through the AMMA WP 3.2 (questionnaire and interview guide applied at 14 villages across Kaffrine), statistical national data and cartographic control. We try to show how rainfall variability in Kaffrine affect livelihood dynamics, 2) to assess adaptive capacities of Kaffrine communities.

This results show important indicators of climate variability that are affect ecosystems and society. The study did not allow us to conclude that climate variability was the only driving force of livelihood and land degradation in Kaffrine. We conclude that scenarios on adaptation should consider both climate and non-climate factors such as basic land management systems. Options, potentials and constraints of adaptive capacity, must be based on integrated assessment of local stressors.

P-3328-04

## Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nigerian Savannah

P. Elias (1)

(1) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The paper examines the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of rural farming communities as determinants of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Nigerian Savannah. The Nigerian savanna has been seriously affected by human activities which have reduced its capacity to support the teaming rural farming communities and livelihood systems. The fact that livelihood systems in the region are closely tied to terrestrial ecosystems and changes in global climate further exacerbates the conditions of the rural farmers. The demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of selected agricultural communities in the Nigerian Savanna were examined with the view to assessing their vulnerability and adaption to climate change. The methodology for the study was based on multistage random sampling technique and Rural Rapid Appraisal (RPP) of 11 communities across 10 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in two states of the southwest and north central Nigeria. Site visits, Key Informant Interview of traditional rulers and Government officials were carried out while an intensive Focused Group Discussion among all the actors was done. The role of education, income from farm and other sources, ability to diversify, willingness to adapt, proportion of savings, and local adaptation mechanisms were identified and used to examine the relationship between indicators of vulnerability and adaptation of local farmers and communities to climate change in the region. By matching indicators of vulnerability and factors of local adaptation it help the understanding of local actions, barriers to adaption, present and future capacities.

The gender, age, marital status and size of households of the respondents reveal typical rural farming communities with large family sizes, low education and incomes from predominantly farming activities (65.8%). These conditions can have a negative impact on the productivity of rural farmers and their households to vulnerability to climate change impacts which could also limit adaption. However, the paper analyse the opportunities to make money from other sources which shows that they could be protected from unexpected shocks from climate change and increase their resilience through the diversification of livelihoods. The poor culture of savings in these communities which cannot be divorced from their poor incomes from farm-based activities could limit adaption. The results shows that the farming communities are facing the realities of climate change with 30% of the sampled population involved in adaption while 21.9% are. Some of the adaption methods include use of fertilizer to boost production, shifting cultivation and irrigation while 17.2% do not know what to do. The farming communities deploy irrigation and organic farming, irrigation and rain harvesting and hiring of more labour. The paper suggests that there should be a rural development policy to increase opportunities and prospects of non-farm activities and promote the culture of savings in these communities. The identified strategies for ameliorating climate change and improving farm activities must be developed sustainably to reduce vulnerability and ensure rural adaptation. This should engage the interest of policy makers if poverty eradication or at worst reduction is a sincere aspiration for the region.

P-3328-05

## Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation through Agro forestry systems in Wolaita Zone, Southern Highland of Ethiopia, East Africa

W. Hailleslassie (1)

(1) National Meteorological Agency, Numerical Weather Prediction, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Climate change is one of the most serious threats the world faces. It will affect all of us, but will have disproportionate impacts on millions of poor rural people in Ethiopia. For development work to be effective, we must not only help poor rural people emerge from poverty, we must also enable them to cope with and mitigate the impact of climate change. Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change, because of the subsistence nature of the farming practices, and because communities have little resources to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Farmer's adaptive capacity is constrained by a lack of economic and technical resources, and they are vulnerable due to a heavy dependence on rain-fed crops. While agro forestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers
adapt to climate change. This paper presents data that examine the mitigation and adaptation potential of different agro forestry systems. Hence, the research questions need to be answered concerning the role of agro forestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It is recommended that in low-income and food-deficit regions livelihoods including food security and climate change cannot be tackled in isolation.

P-3328-06

Responding to the Scares Skills Needs in the Renewable Energy Domain in South Africa

Y. Hamam (1); L. Makhubela (2); AM. Kurien (3)

(1) Tshwane University of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Pretoria, South Africa; (2) Tshwane University of Technology, Post graduate studies research and innovation, Pretoria, South Africa; (3) Tshwane University of Technology, F'Sati, Pretoria, South Africa

Almost to the South Africa's department of Energy, almost 90% of South Africa's electricity is generated in coal-fired power stations. One nuclear station near Cape Town produces about 5% of the total capacity. The remaining 5% is provided by hydroelectric and pumped stations, the sites available for this power being limited. The Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) in Pretoria, South Africa is responding to these needs in collaboration with French and European Institutions.

This is done through institutions within the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment:

* The French South-African Institute of Technology (F'SAT)

* The Centre for Energy and Electric Power (CEEP)

These institutions collaborate within the graduate programme of the Department of Electrical Engineering to provide courses and research in the energy domain and specifically in the renewable energy specialisation.

F'SATI is a National asset contributing to the creation of knowledge and the transfer of technology in South Africa through the establishment of collaboration between various higher education and research institutes, as well as industry. F'SATI's mission is to improve the quality and the quantity of the output at postgraduate level. This proposition is enhanced through the collaboration with other French partners. In the last four years F'SATI has highly increased its output at both postgraduate students and publication levels. The present stakeholders of this venture are the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the French Ministry of Education and Research, The Chamber of Commerce an Industry of the Parisian Region, the South African Department of Science and Industry and National Research Foundation.

The European partners of the CEEP include the Hogeschool Utrecht University of Applied Sciences, the University of Utrecht, the ECOFYS, the RWTH-Aachen University and the French ESIEE-Amiens.

The partners of the above programmes include companies such as ESKOM the main power company, Local Municipalities, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and other South African Universities.

The above programmes have contributed to the training and education at both the Masters and Doctorate levels. These programmes cover the following domains: smart networks, photovoltaic applications, wind energy production as well as hydropower. This collaborative effort has resulted in the training of postgraduate students as well as the production of many scientific publications in the domain of renewable energy.

The graduates of these programmes contribute to the development of renewable energy in South Africa. This adventure gives an example of a collaboration between European countries and an African country. It shows that such a venture may respond to scarce skills that are highly needed in Africa.

The authors will give more details of these activities in the full document and the oral presentation.

P-3328-07

The Nexus of Climate Downscaling Using RegCM4 and Hydrology dynamics in Ghana

R. Kasei (1)

(1) University for Development Studies, Climate Change and Food Security, Tamale, Ghana

Climate Downscaling is a term adopted in climate science in recent years to describe a set of techniques that relate local to regional-scale climate variables in relation to the larger scale atmospheric forcing. Theoretically, the techniques are advancements of the known traditional techniques in synoptic climatology. Climate downscaling specifically addresses the detailed temporal and spatial information from Global Climate Models (GCMs) required by precise researches of today. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), with horizontal resolution of 55 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM5 simulations forced with observed SSTs over southern Ghana. For each of the ECHAM5 AGCM integrations a nested integration with the REGCM was done for the period January-June 1961-2000. Six-hour wind, temperature, humidity, and surface pressure data from ECHAM5 AGCM outputs were linearly interpolated in time and in space onto REGCM grids as base fields. The results of the comparison for the Densu catchment site showed good productivity. The SPI analysis conducted on projected precipitation based on REGCM using IPCC's A1B and B1 scenarios against the base period of 1961-2000 showed both scenarios agreeing to a general drying trend for the future. Results show that precipitation will decrease by up to 70% in some areas and the duration of the rainy season will narrow, which may have extensive implications for agriculture and city water supply. In lieu of this, adaptation will be central to sustaining development and four response measures are discussed as being cardinal to this process. These include mainstreaming adaptation into policy planning processes at varied levels, enhancing water conservation for agriculture, promoting the cultivation of drought resistant and early maturing crop varieties, and promoting access to food through technical and economic infrastructure and services that facilitate food exchange. Climate Downscaling is a term adopted in climate science in recent years to describe a set of techniques that relate local to regional-scale climate variables in relation to the larger scale atmospheric forcing. Theoretically, the techniques are advancements of the known traditional techniques in synoptic climatology. Climate downscaling specifically addresses the detailed temporal and spatial information from Global Climate Models (GCMs) required by precise researches of today. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), with horizontal resolution of 55 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM5 simulations forced with observed SSTs over southern Ghana. For each of the ECHAM5 AGCM integrations a nested integration with the REGCM was done for the period January-June 1961-2000. The results of the comparison for the Densu catchment site showed a good correlation between the observed REGCM-simulated monthly rainfalls with significant statistics. Although no coherent trends were found in the basin, interannual rainfall variability was more pronounced as revealed by the REGCM 4 simulations. The northern part of the basin is most vulnerable to these variations because it has a monomodal rainfall pattern compared to the south which has relatively higher rainfall amounts due to its bi-modal rainfall pattern. The SPI analysis conducted on projected precipitation based on REGCM using IPCC's A1B and B1 scenarios against the base period of 1961-2000 showed both scenarios agreeing to a general drying trend for the future. Results show that precipitation will decrease by up to 70% in some areas and the duration of the rainy season will narrow, which are discussed as being cardinal to this process. These include mainstreaming adaptation into policy planning processes at varied levels, enhancing water conservation for agriculture, promoting the cultivation of drought resistant and early maturing crop varieties, and promoting access to food through technical and economic infrastructure and services that facilitate food exchange.
# Risques Hydrométéorologiques dans les Villes Africaines RHYVA/PARRAF

A. Konaré (1)

(1) University Felix Houphouet Boigny, Laboratoire de physique de l'atmosphere et de mecanique des fluides, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

RHYVA Network: Risques Hydro-météorologiques dans le Villes Africaines

In synergy with the ECOWAS vision, the objective of RHYVA network is to develop a basic understanding of the risks in urban environments and to provide expertise to strengthen the resilience of African cities Capacities for hydrometeorological disasters Specifically, RHYVA aims to promote dialogue between the different actors that contribute to reducing the harmful effects of hydrometeorological disasters (scientists, emergency services and risk management, policy makers, NGOs, communities at risk) to share knowledge (results of the research, experience feedback, good governance practices, evaluation, coordination, communication and appropriate conduct). Make a plea and conduct training and awareness activities on reducing urban disaster risk to parliamentarians and local authorities, journalists and the target communities. To support research activities on risk Hydrometeorological in African cities and support the development and networking of national platforms in charge of disaster risk reduction at the subregional level

# The role of indigenous knowledge systems in climate change, prediction, adaptation and mitigation in sub Saharan Africa

PL. Mafongoya (1) ; N. Chanza (2) ; C. Mubaya (3)

(1) University of KwaZulu Natal, Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Science, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa;
(2) Mandela Metropolitan University, Department of geosciences, Port Elizabeth, South Africa; (3) Chinhoyi University of Technology, Resource mobilisation, Chinhoyi, Zimbabwe

The recognition of the significance of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) has only begun to emerge at the international level in the last few years. Understanding the nature and relevance of IKS for climate change adaptation and mitigation is a new and expanding area of collaborating research involving indigenous people, local communities and scientists. It is the basis of community based observations of climate impact and traditional practices and mechanisms that provide a robust basis for climate change response. IKS can be defined as ecological knowledge or accumulative board of knowledge, practice and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission about relationships of people with one another and their environment. For communities to adapt to climate change it is critical for them to perceive how climate is changing. Farmers have the following perception on climate change, shorting of growing season, changes in rainfall characteristics, increase in temperature, changes in wind characteristics and extreme events such as droughts, floods, dry spells, cyclones and increased incidence of pests and diseases. Farmers in Africa use indigenous knowledge systems for weather forecasting and prediction of season quality. They use a combination of tree phenology, animal behavior and birds and other multicriteria phenomena such as the shape of the moon, type of clouds and wind direction. In most cases seasonal quality forecast and scientific forecast are identical. Scientific forecast may able to compliment indigenous forecast so as to mitigate the loss of traditional weather and climate indicators. Farmers use indigenous practices to adapt to climate change and mitigation.

# Responding to Sustainability Challenges in Irrigation Sector: Community-based Integrated ICT Solutions for Sub-Saharan Africa

H. Mongi (1) ; A. Mvuma, (1) ; A. Sife, (2)

(1) The University of Dodoma, Information Systems, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of; (2) Sokoini University of Agriculture, Sokoini National agricultural library, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of

Irrigation is the most water intensive sector, consuming nearly three quarters of global fresh water resources. Significant number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are emphasizing on expansion of land under irrigation to offset food security brought about by climate change and other factors. This is happening amid increasing evidences on declining fresh water resources in the same region, therefore triggering options to their sustainable management. This contribution highlights some technologies to enhance decision making, coordination and control in the community level as part of concerted responses to address sustainability challenges in the water sector. The solutions were developed involving stakeholders in three SSA countries: Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. Testing focused on small scale but sensitive irrigation schemes around Trans-boundary Lake Victoria Basin in Tanzania's part. Among priority adaptation options for climate change is to develop, pilot implement and scale-up information systems. The paper describes integrated Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) solutions that have been developed with and for communities to support coordination for sustainable water resources in the SSA. They provide tools and techniques that can create a common platform for sharing information at the bottom level. They provide many options through which community can engage in giving and receiving information regarding water resources. These solutions are believed to improve coordination, decision making and control on water resources for irrigation thereby contributing to sustainable water for agriculture, livestock and domestic uses.

# Impacts of climate change on water resources and relevant adaptation strategies in upper catchment of Pangani basin in Tanzania

S. Mwakalila (1)

(1) University of Dar es Salaam, Geography, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

The climate change impact on water resources is the major challenge across the Pangani basin in Tanzania. In some areas, too little water leads to droughts and desertification, whereas in others too much water leads to increased flooding. The Tanzania Agriculture Policy advocates for improved water use efficiency as an adaptation strategy, which can help the nation to achieve in improvement of food security; increasing farmer's productivity and income. Following local people's perception, the major climate change impact is drought (78%) with high frequency of occurrence. Irrigated agriculture which depends on water resources is by far the largest water use sector in Tanzania, is affected by changes in water availability that is caused by climate change. Climate change also alters irrigation water demand. Higher temperatures and more variable rainfall tend to increase water demand per unit of irrigated area. The adverse effects of climate change is felt by poor communities because of their low financial capacity associated with limited financial resources, poor infrastructure, low level of education, dependence on natural resources and lesser access to technology. Traditional irrigated agriculture is the most common adaptation strategy for crop production and account for more than 79% of the total irrigation schemes in the study area. Traditional irrigated agriculture which is the most common adaptation measure for crop production is usually water limited with loss of water and low crop productivity. Traditional schemes are usually initiated and operated by farmers themselves, with no external intervention or support. They include schemes based on traditional furrows for production of paddy, maize and vegetables. Traditional schemes are usually characterized by locally improvised infrastructure which is poorly constructed and temporary in nature. They are often associated with low productivity due to poor farming and water management structures. Intake structures are made from locally available materials like stone, grass, earth, wooden poles and straw. Intake structures are usually built across the river, partially or wholly blocking the channel, and are thus prone to damage during high river flows. The majority of intakes do not have control gates to regulate the amount of water entering the furrow.
Conveyance canals are usually hand dug and not lined to minimize seepage. Because the canals are lined, they quickly get clogged by vegetation growth which reduces their efficiency. The canals typically lack flow control devices for effective conveyance and distribution. This implies that, traditional irrigation has low efficiency due to wastage of water sources from the source to the field level. Promotion of efficient irrigation water use and adoption of good farming practices is, therefore, critical to ensuring sustainable use and management of the water resources for sustaining local peoples' livelihoods in Tanzania. Since water demands have intensified with the increase of economic activities such as irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, livestock keeping, fisheries and wildlife activities, this paper recommends effective implementation of integrated water resources management as adaptation measure to be enhanced and implemented, to ensuring sustainable use and management of water resources for sustainable development.

P-3328-12

## Complementing Local Indigenous Knowledge and Practices and scientific knowledge for better policy planning on climate change adaptation: the Case of Cameroon

E. Ngang (1)

(1) Information and Communication University (ICT-), Management, Yaounde, Centre, France

Climate change is a defining issue of our era, with its impacts reaching regional and global scales. The current management of water resources is largely focused on water applications for agriculture, fisheries, forestry, life histories, community compositions, and essential ecosystem functions. Warming, combined with the higher risk of extreme floods and droughts, shrinking water resources will lead to the rapidly lengthening list of potentially damaging impacts, from soaring food prices to famine and mass migration of species including humans and increase in conflicts over diminishing natural resources. Countries of the African continent are among the most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes, given that only 5% of their cultivated land is irrigated and food production is dependent mainly on rain-fed agriculture. How serious the repercussions will be, depends on how fast measures and strategies are adopted to facilitate coping with the extreme and inevitable conditions posed by climate change especially for grass root communities. Unfortunately, some of these agriculture-dependent areas that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change are quite remote with improper coverage by scientific forecasting stations. The farmers in these areas have been modifying their farm practices to adapt to inevitable changes in climate. Through on-farm management and post-harvest conservation practices, they have used their wealth of Local Indigenous Knowledge and Practices (LIKPs) in the food production chain to enhance their food security. It has been observed that although LIKPs have been recognised as a resource, they have however been given a tokenistic consideration through the addition of a small portion of traditional ecological knowledge in decision making processes related to climate change while business is still done as usual. These traditional practices and strategies that have been linked to changes in climate and long-term extreme weather conditions, transferred orally and through mutual and collective on-farm learning on-farm learning and practices, from one decade to another and from generation to generation, have been grossly neglected. This poster presentation shall highlight the conflict between traditional (indigenous) knowledge, which is contextual, localised and the western-scientific and bureaucratic (often top-down) method of management that finds it difficult to reconcile national planning with local action (bottom-up) within the framework of climate change adaptation. Focus should be on Cameroon. This places the local communities and local communities as co-creators of knowledge and practices that cushions

them against climate risks, ensuring ownership and sustainability of policies and implementation strategies. Some examples of successful local indigenous knowledge practices gathered through evidence-based research and engagement with local agriculture dependent communities in Cameroon shall be highlighted to contribute to steer reflections on the subject.

P-3328-13

## Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

C. Niang (1)

(1) Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphere et de l'Ocean, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Dakar, France

Intraseasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa plays a significant role in the economy of the region and is highly linked to agriculture and water resources. This research study aims to investigate the relationship between Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall over West Africa during the boreal summer in the state-of-the-art Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations performed by Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). It aims to determine the role of MJO on rainfall and convection over West Africa and identify the dynamical processes which are involved. The simulations show in general good skills in capturing its main characteristics as well as its influence on rainfall over West Africa. On the global scale, most models simulated an eastward spatio-temporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed. However, over West Africa the MJO signal is weak in few of the models although there is evidence of a strong convection in the eastward propagation. In addition, the ensemble average of models give better performance in reproducing those features. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as seen in the observation. Few models overestimate the composite intensity in phases with strong MJO signal over the Sahel while the opposite is simulated over Guinea coast. Furthermore, the results show that strong active convective phase is clearly associated with the African Easterly Jet (AE) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AE particularly over coastal Ghana. In assessing the mechanisms which are involved in the above impacts the convectively equatorial coupled waves (CCEW) are analysed separately. The analysis of the longitudinal propagation of zonal wind at 850hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the CCEW are very weak and their extension are very limited beyond West African region. It was found that the westward coupled equatorial Rossby waves are needed to bring out the MJO-convection link over the region and this relationship is well reproduced by all the models. However, Kelvin waves do not account for the overall impact of MJO signal on convection over West Africa. Results also confirmed that it may be possible to predict the anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day with regard to Indian Ocean and AMIP simulations performed well in this regard.

P-3328-14

## Adaptation and response to climate change, an opportunity for local development in Central Africa: case study of Cameroon western highlands

DJ. Nkue Nouwezem (1)

(1) University of Dschang, Geography, Dschang, Cameroon

Climate change offers opportunities for African countries to emerge. It calls the attention to a sustainable development in a century where African countries aspire to development, emergence and economic stability. According to observations made in different localities on the continents, African local communities are trying to assess and mitigate the impact of climatic change with their own means. This will help them to address particular issues concerning them. Indeed, general measures proposed by stakeholders and policy makers based on them are not always the best to resolve problems arising. Besides, some are living in remote or rural areas and
hence not aware of these mitigation measures and policies adopted. In Cameroon and especially in its western part, to ensure their productivity, farmers have ameliorated their production capacities by developing and mastering new production and commercialization tools. When talking about production we refer to the understanding of the new climatic patterns, the improvement of tilling and irrigation systems. Concerning commercialization, models have changed. Furthermore we see buyers going directly to purchase goods from farms while some years ago it was the producers who were going toward the buyers. Moreover, things have improved at the national level. Contrary to what was done during the last ten years, the publication of meteorological data through national televisions programs and newspapers shows a great progress in the African sub region. This meteorological data have a great impact on the daily lives of populations in the area. Also state institutions such as ministries of environment and their respective departments, which control industrial production models and sanction those who pollute the environment helps in encouraging sustainable development. This paper shows how local communities in central African countries in general and in the western highlands of Cameroon in particular have adapted to climate change, showing how they respond to it in order to ensure their agricultural production in climatic variability circumstances and how this adaptation contributes to their development. The data presented in this paper are the result of a qualitative research based on in situ observations, interviews and literature review. These data reflect globally what is happening in most of central African countries.

## P-3328-15

# Biomass Economy in the Era of Politicization and Economization of Nature in Africa: A Case for Clean Energy Transition

AIS. Okoh (1)

(1) Benue state university, political science, Makurdi, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Over the next 25 years, 600 million people to over 700 million will rely on biomass energy in Africa. According to International Energy Agency 61.2% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa will depend on biomass and waste for total primary energy demand when you exclude South Africa, it is 81.2%. Yet, biomass economy as a vital sector of the economy is not integrated into the national development plan of most states. Traditional biomass is mostly unplanned heightening depletion of resources. Africa will witness increases in biomass consumption in 2035 whereas in other regions will witness decreases. With the business as usual scenario, the Africa consumption will rise with exponential population explosion leading to between 51% - 57% higher demands for biomass in 2035. With greenhouse gases reaching 400ppm, made climate change will be a barrier to attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of this generation putting an end to poverty in 2030. However, ending global poverty is inextricably linked to energy consumption and production which will also exacerbate climate change. Resolving this complexity is critical in the years to come in that they are mutually reinforcing in Africa. In recognition, many countries made remarkable progress towards resolving this challenge by integrating renewable energy into the energy supply mix in the transition to zero society. However, carbon emission play vital role in clean economy as net zero emission and green growth needs are not just coterminous but axiomatic necessities. Yet, such necessity is also inter-related with our biospheric limits. Carbon-based growth for low income countries of Africa will ensure transition to middle income economy but such growth is based on resources depletion. For Africa, natural capital is still the large bowl for the transition to middle income country. I argue that though clean energy transition is the future to low carbon civilization. But for many countries in Africa biomass still holds more potential for improving economic wellbeing of the poor. Despite this beneficial transition will not only magnify existing inequalities within the continent but will result in reversal of growth. It is my contention there are still many gray areas in clean economy as unsustainable extraction and consumption will continue into the future reinforcing climate-related extreme events. This will require dramatic low carbon trajectory which aims at eco-efficient utilization of green infrastructure. And as such, it is a paradox of cohabiting extremes in the politicization and economization of nature in Africa.

In this paper, the above dilemma is closely examined in the light of its impediment to the food system and meeting SDGs. Finding an enduring energy policy solution to food insecurity will require an ecologically responsible food system that is not undermined by land grabs for biofuel production. This then prompts us to ask: Can Africa's biomass economy made eco-efficient? In what ways has Africa's energy policy mix changed with the politicization and economization of nature? Has Africa's clean energy complex imbibed principle of allocative justice? Can policy reforms rebalance growth towards net zero trajectories? The answers to these questions shall be uncovered through secondary data sources which will point us towards proffering adjustments for policy changes. We conclude by advocating a policy mix of materialization and dematerialization as solution to agro-ecological deteriorations. This will require dramatic changes in production or consumption critical in biomass economy as different phases of the economic process may cancel each other out when it comes to overall energy consumption. To achieve efficient use of energy will require a new roadmap called food sovereignty economy. This model advocates some form of dematerialization if we will not lock present generation into a fossil fuel dependent future. It combines eco-friendly policies of food sovereignty and sufficiency economy to set a pathway to net negative emissions in the attainment of SDGs.

## P-3328-16

# Ensemble Modeling using General Circulation Models from Global Producing Centres for Rainfall Forecasting over the Greater Horn of Africa

G. Otieno (1)

(1) university of nairobi, meteorology, nairobi, Kenya

Climate extremes like flood and drought have threatened the social-economic sustainability over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Lack of accurate and reliable forecasts systems with correct time leads results to devastating impacts. Under the auspice of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCs), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in effort to address the challenges due to climate extremes designated global producing centres Models (GPCs) to provide accurate and timely climate services and information.

This study evaluated the skill of forecasting seasonal rainfall over the GHA using the GPCs models. The datasets used included; monthly rainfall model hindcasts, Climate Research Unit (CRU) blended with observed rainfall stations between 1983-2001. The methods employed in the study included Spearman Rank correlation, Composite Analysis, Weighted averages, Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Scores(CRPSS) and Taylor Diagrams.

The skill of the ensemble model was higher than that of the individual models in capturing the rainfall peaks during the ENSO phenomena. Correlation analysis showed higher values for ensemble model output than for the individual models mostly over the Equatorial region. The skill of the models was relatively higher during the onset of the ENSO event and became low towards the decaying phase of ENSO period.

It is clear from the study that ensemble seasonal forecasting significantly adds skill to the forecasts over the region. Blending dynamical ensemble forecasts with statistical forecast currently being produced during Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would add value to seasonal forecasts. This significantly reduces the impacts and damages associated with climate extremes over the region.

## P-3328-17

# Food security in African drylands: Learning from socio-ecological patterns of smallholder agriculture

D. Sietz (1) ; J. Ordoñez, (2) ; M. Kok (3) ; P. Janssen, (3) ; H. Hilderink, (3) ; DH. Van (1)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands;

(2) ICRAF, Turralba, Costa Rica; (3) PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Food production is key to achieving food security in
African drylands. Agricultural productivity is however significantly constrained due to climate variability, low water supply, limited soil fertility and farmers' remoteness from decision-making centres. In addition, future climate change is projected to further undermine agricultural productivity. Vulnerability is employed as a concept to capture the relation between farming systems and climate stresses impacting upon these systems. To promote learning for a food secure future, we represent a quantitative typology of smallholders' vulnerability in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa. This typology explicitly incorporates malnutrition as cause and consequence of vulnerability. We indicated the most relevant socio-ecological properties of dryland farming systems at a sub-national resolution including child malnutrition, water availability, soil erosion sensitivity, agropotential, income, population density, urban population share, distance to markets and governance. Cluster analysis revealed nine typical patterns of vulnerability showing distinct indicator combinations. For example, one pattern depicts high levels of child malnutrition, a poor resource base and poor governance and is indicated in the hyper-arid to semi-arid areas of eastern Africa. This typology enables the evaluation of key inter-linkages between smallholders' climate vulnerability and food security. Their evaluation facilitates the transfer of successful strategies for resilience building based on similarities among the farming systems and supports the identification of entry points for managing transitions towards a food secure future. The manageable number of socio-ecological patterns enable new insights into the prioritisation of interventions to improve and monitor food security.

P-3328-18

## Barriers and enablers to climate change adaptation in four South African municipalities, and implications for Community Based Adaptation

M. Spires (1); S. Shackleton (2)

(1) Rhodes University and ICELI Africa, Grahamstown and Cape Town, South Africa; (2) Rhodes University, Environmental Science, Grahamstown, South Africa

Despite the fact that municipalities have a vital role to play in planning and implementing climate change adaptation, numerous barriers are encountered when they do so, especially at the community level. A study was conducted to analyse these barriers and enablers, both via literature review and case study analysis of four South African municipalities. Comparison of barriers and enablers across the case studies revealed a number of key themes. Municipalities struggle to implement climate change adaptation and community based adaptation within contexts of significant social, economic and ecological challenges. These contextual barriers, when combined with certain cognitive barriers, lead to reactive responses. Existing municipal systems and structures make it difficult to enable climate change adaptation, which is inherently cross-sectoral and messy, and especially community based adaptation that is bottom-up and participatory. Lack of locally applicable knowledge, funding and human resources were found to be significant resource barriers, and were often underlain by social barriers relating to perceptions, needs, discourses and governance challenges. Enablers of engaged officials, operating within enabling organisational environments and drawing on partnerships and networks, were able to overcome or circumvent these barriers. When these enablers coincided with windows of opportunity that increased the prioritisation of climate change within the

municipality, projects with ancillary benefits were often implemented.

P-3328-19

## Predicting future climate for adaptation in northern Côte d'Ivoire: contribution of statistical downscaling model

K. Yao Etienne (1); K. Brama (2); C. Guéladio (3); S. Issiaka (4); A. Konare (5)

(1) Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Péleforo Gon Coubalyi of Korhogo, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) University of Basel, Bâle, Switzerland; (4) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (5) Université Félix Houphouët Boigny of Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

In the region of Korhogo in northern Côte d'Ivoire recent climate variations are marked by a superposition of droughts and floods. These events contribute to weakening the wellbeing of populations, particularly the most vulnerable. To enhance the actual and future resilience and adaptation capacity of these people, it is necessary to have more information on present climatic parameters and their future evolution.

Temperature and rainfall of the white Bandama basin in the region of Korhogo from 1971 to 2000 were collected at the Société d'Exploitation et de Développement Aéroportuaire, Aéronautique et Météorologie (SODEXAM) and processed. Statistical downscaling method was used to project theses data at three horizons: 2020 (2011–2040), 2050 (2041–2070) and 2080 (2071–2099) base on IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios. Model calibration was done by multiple linear regression between four predictor variables derived from the general circulation model HadCM3 and local observation variables (temperatures and rainfall).

The results generally show that the model simulates well enough both temperatures and rainfall. Of the three horizons, the model predicts an average temperature increase of 0.43°C; 0.97°C and 1.63°C. In general, the A2 scenario provides greater increases than B2. Indeed according to A2 scenario, the current minimum temperature (20.87°C) could increase by 0.48°C, 1.16°C and 2.02°C respectively at the horizons 2020, 2050 and 2080. For current average temperatures (26.8°C), the increase could be 0.44°C, 1.13°C and 1.96°C, respectively for the three horizons. When actual maximum temperature (32.27) could increase by 0.31°C, 1.36°C and 1.17°C also for the same horizons. According to B2 scenario, minimum temperature could increase by 0.43°C, 0.82°C and 1.39°C for the three horizons. Current average temperatures could increase by 0.43°C, 1.13°C and 1.33°C according to B2 scenario. And for maximum temperature, increase could be 0.78°C, 1.11°C and 1.14°C. The months of september and october record the higher values of maximum temperatures.

For precipitation, A2 and B2 scenarios presented the same average annual increase of 34% at the 2020 horizon with a margin of error between 10% and 9% respectively. By 2050, the annual increase could be valued at 29% and 33% for A2 and B2. This increase could be 12% and 28% respectively for A2 and B2 by 2080 with lower margins of error of 4% (A2) and 7% (B2). The months of May and June could see the largest increases (149 mm and 109 mm respectively), which is twice the observed quantities. Such information's are useful for the planning and implementation of programs and plans for adaptation to reduce the potential risks associated with these climatic variations.

# 3329 - How Might East African Landscapes Respond to Future Climate Change?

**ORAL PRESENTATIONS**

## 0-3329-01

### Understanding the past to develop a sustainable future: the value of the East African palaeoecological record

R. Marchant (1)

(1) University of York, Environment department, York, United Kingdom

Ecosystems are the primary resource for human well-being and provide key functions essential to the sustainable economic development, especially for African nations whose economies are heavily dependent on agriculture, rangeland pastoralism, forestry management and wildlife tourism. Planning for the long-term sustainable use of
Africa's ecosystem natural resource requires a longer-term historical perspective on human-ecosystem-environment interactions than is currently available. A synthetic overview of the palaeoecological records from East Africa will be presented and used to chart the interactions between people and their use of ecosystem resources during the transition into agriculture. The time period will draw on the palaeoecological record of the last 6000 years with a focus on the historical record. Zooming in on the past 500 years we will present how this has been used to build a foundation to construct informed climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the future. The presentation will focus on unpicking the temporal, spatial and complexity of interactions and interdependencies in the social-ecological systems in Eastern Africa to understand the interactions between people, their environment, wildlife, livelihoods, and provide a better potential future for the sustainable use of Africa's ecosystem. The presentation will unpick how societies, landscapes, ecosystems and Protected Areas have responded to climate change, so as to better understand how they may respond to future climate change and societal use.

### 0-3329-02

#### Landscape Resilience and Vulnerability in eastern Africa: an archaeological prospec-tus for the future

**P. Lane (1)**

(1) Archaeology & Ancient History, Uppsala, Sweden

The need to create and sustain resilient societies capable of facing the burgeoning challenges posed by accelerating global climate change has become a dominant mantra of our age. Both sustainability and resilience are inherently dual concepts, but in planning for the future it is often difficult to identify which practices and systems are likely to enhance resilience and which may make communities and even whole societies more vulnerable to the detrimental effects of climate change. For this reason, examples from 'the past', and specifically tangible evidence for long-lasting socially and ecologically enabling practices are increasingly used as a source of information for planning the future. Using archaeological examples from East Africa spanning the last ca. 1000 years, this paper outlines some concrete instances of past strategies aimed at enhancing socio-ecological resilience during periods of extreme climatic pressures and critically discusses whether these can be used as models for the future.

### 0-3329-03

#### "Growing water" in Northern Kenya: Resi-lience of the Gabbra ecology and techno-logy to adverse climate change

**B. Hazard (1)**

(1) Institut Interdisciplinaire d'anthropologie du contemporain, Institut National des Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS, Paris, France

Northern Kenya is frequently described as one of six areas directly impacted by the global climate change as well as the human and natural impacts, but in planning for the future it is often difficult to identify which practices and systems are likely to enhance resilience and which may make communities and even whole societies more vulnerable to the detrimental effects of climate change. For this reason, examples from 'the past', and specifically tangible evidence for long-lasting socially and ecologically enabling practices are increasingly used as a source of information for planning the future. Using archaeological examples from East Africa spanning the last ca. 1000 years, this paper outlines some concrete instances of past strategies aimed at enhancing socio-ecological resilience during periods of extreme climatic pressures and critically discusses whether these can be used as models for the future.

Northern Kenya is frequently described as one of six areas directly impacted by the global climate change as well as the human and natural impacts, but in planning for the future it is often difficult to identify which practices and systems are likely to enhance resilience and which may make communities and even whole societies more vulnerable to the detrimental effects of climate change. For this reason, examples from 'the past', and specifically tangible evidence for long-lasting socially and ecologically enabling practices are increasingly used as a source of information for planning the future. Using archaeological examples from East Africa spanning the last ca. 1000 years, this paper outlines some concrete instances of past strategies aimed at enhancing socio-ecological resilience during periods of extreme climatic pressures and critically discusses whether these can be used as models for the future.

water" in the desert. From an ethnographic survey done in 2011, the presentation will explore how the lost of local knowledge regarding climate, land and water resource reshape resilient capacities of socio-ecological system. From this situation of environmental acculturation, we expect to discuss how predictive policy of climate and more widely the African Union "Policy framework for pastoralism in Africa" may help to build common responses to future climate change.

### 0-3329-04

#### Adopting landscape approach in enhanc-ing resource governance, adaptation and resilience in arid and semi- arid lands of Kenya

**Y. Salah (1)**

(1) IUCN, People and landscape programme, Nairobi, Kenya

Efficient and balanced utilization of natural resources dispersed in spatial and temporal basis in vast landscapes are arid and semi- arid lands the main survival strategy for pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya and horn of Africa for generations. Natural resource planning and management in pastoral communities is anchored on traditional regulations and institutions that facilitates mobility one of the cornerstone strategies that allows balanced use of the resource and survive harsh climatic conditions and stresses including drought. The traditional institutions plan and manage their resources in integrated manner at landscape level. External factors including formal government institutions and approaches have weakened these institutions and disrupted sustainable resource management hence making pastoral communities vulnerable to climate change.

Reviving and strengthening the landscape level approaches in resource management and governance that involve all the relevant stakeholders in participatory manner is paramount in facilitating resilience building and adaptation in pastoral areas of northern Kenya and horn of Africa. Towards entrenching and enhancing landscape level resource management and governance IUCN in collaboration with diverse stakeholders initiated natural resource governance projects in northern Kenya. This paper highlights the outcomes of the initiatives, opportunities and challenges that exist in adopting landscape level natural resource management and governance for the devolved system of governance in Kenya to enhance resilience and adaptation to climate change.

Integrated natural resource management anchored on participatory planning and management hold enormous potential in overcoming drought and climate extremes in pastoral areas of northern Kenya. One of the key approaches implemented to facilitate integration is adapted sub-catchment management planning approach. The approach is based on integration of the rangeland management and sub-catchment management plans to best serve the need of the pastoral communities. Landscape level planning and management was enhanced through this approach by bridging the gap between the formal and traditional resource management institutions that derive legitimacy from the national policies and local level governance structures. The formation of hybrid institution tasked with multiple resource planning and management operations were strengthened through formulation of integrated natural resource management bylaws anchored on traditional systems of resource planning and management which is formalized by county government through the devolved functions hence creating ownership and local control over resources. The bylaws formulation is informed by participatory resource planning and management which is the main survival strategy for resources at landscape level. The devolution process also offers inter-county collaboration on resource use and coordination which is critical aspect in implementation of landscape level interventions.

The key challenges in effective implementation of landscape level interventions in the northern Kenya are mainly related to how understanding of the landscape approach in resources management which is intertwined with less appreciation of the pastoralist livelihood among some government officials. Although there are some challenges there are policies and laws that promote landscape approach at national level and opportunity exists for formulation of the further policies and laws at the County level.
## The Rusizi plain, an area prone to the challenges of climate change and subject to political constraints

A. Cazenave-Piarrot (1) ; C. Thibon (2) ; G. Joseph (3) ; D. Wanyizinyi (4) ; S. Ndayiritye (5)

(1) Université de Pau et des pays de l'Adour, Géographie, Pau, France; (2) Université de Pau et pays de l'Adour, Histoire, Pau, France; (3) Kigali Institute of Education, Histoire, Kigali, Rwanda; (4) National University of Rwanda, Sciences-geographie, Butare, Rwanda; (5) UNIVERSITE DU BURUNDI, GEOGRAPHIE, BUJUMBURA, France

Statement of the problem: Is it possible to have a political ecology in a natural and human environment which is both subject to the global change and geopolitical tensions?

1. The starting point: The alarm was raised by the increase of natural political challenges: frequent floods, erosion, fragile biodiversity, soil degradation, epidemics, which reveal a serious ecological crisis which, nonetheless, is not the first one in the region.

- This crisis goes back into the past from the demographic pressure on the environment and its resources. It takes various aspects: settlement front in the plain, rapid urbanization, overpopulation, degradation of watersheds which undermine, beyond hill level, the upper slopes and the forests.

- This gap has been maintained by political instability over the last 30 years of civil wars accompanied by forced migrations, depopulation of one area and resettlement in another, the intensification of land disputes between herders and farmers, which have been exacerbated by contrasting political styles of governance in different countries and even more by the effect of a climate change (rainfalls, intensity of natural disasters-this needs to be better identified).

2. Short and mid-term projections: In the mid-term, the projections confirm this pattern and even exaggerate it: the Rusizi plain is a breathing space for the Great Lakes population, due to area development and agriculture projects. It is becoming an attractive economic frontier due to emerging economies, asymmetric national economies and their new sources of revenue (trade, tourism, etc.), an area for farming activities (rice- growing and processing project and cattle farms, etc.), an area with high demographic growth, both natural and due to migrations (refugee resettlement, long-term settlement in camps).

- Demographic policies, initiated in the three countries, although in an unequal manner, have had little or no effect in the short and mid-term, due to the inertia of the population movement.

- In addition to the above, you also have political, geopolitical, sub regional and bilateral challenges amid instability in some sub-regions of the Rusizi -, conflicts between asymmetric political systems (strong/weak/failed states, Rwanda, Burundian and Congoese), fueled by outbreaks of rebellion connection with the politicians the three countries, and to which could be added territorial disputes. This situation does not help nascent public policies.

3. The way forward: In response to these challenges, sectoral approaches, as well as all-ecological processes be possible, but they lack a comprehensive political framework. The best known are conservation policies for threatened areas (niches, protected areas, parks and nature reserves) ...., with local/ zonal public policies, with technical solutions for each type of soil (land use plan and landscape map). The aim is a sustainable agricultural and agro pastoral development, with a view to improving the population's living conditions. These require comprehensive policies that would lead to regional and international planning (diagram), with harmonized sectoral policies and investments (water, energy, town, mines agriculture, tourism).

- Everything will depend on the role of the states, the international and regional community, the provincial and municipal authorities and their cross-border cooperation, the national and international civil society, the means invested in such a scheme, focusing on the public good across the borders and in the region, with a view of creating 'peace lands'; hence, the relevance of a political ecology.

## Adapting to Climate- Bringing Back Traditional Grains to the Dinner Table

J. Gatune (1) ; D. Cohen, (2)

(1) African Centre for Economic Transformation (ACET), Research, Accra, Ghana; (2) Pardee RAND Graduates School, Santa Monica, United States of America

Climate change will have significant impact on crops yields. Adaptation to climate change will necessarily call for shifts in diets. This will require diversifying diets to reduce the risk for failure of one crop and shifting diets towards more draught resistant crops. In the Eastern part of Africa huge reliance on maize already make the regional vulnerable to famine as maize is a sensitive to shortage of water at critical period of growth. This vulnerability is going to be significantly magnified in the wake of climate change that will see reduction in precipitation and also increase in uncertainty on the timing of the rains.

The region can thus benefit greatly from shift towards diets that use traditional grains of millet and sorghum that are more resistant to draught and more suited to the region's agro-ecological conditions and importantly more nutritious than maize rice and wheat (the other grains whose consumption is growing fast). However the traditional grains have over the years lost their place in the dinner table, first to maize following introduction by the Portuguese and more recently to wheat and rice. The loss to maize can be explained largely by resistance of maize to quelea birds attack and the rise of wheat and rice (which are largely imported) can be largely explained by ease of cooking and convenience offered by these grains, qualities which are important in urban areas where time is limited. The consumption by the more affluent urban dwellers has also conferred to wheat and rice a positive image of food of the successful. Conversely growing and consumption of millet and sorghum has remained confined to the poor and marginal and therefore poor areas, where they are really the only grains that can grow due to their hardness, and the consequence is that the grain are now seen as the food for the poor an image that has made them very uncompetitive. They have been neglected by research and also food systems and as a results yields remain very low and farming systems largely subsistent. The value chains remain highly fragmented with very low level of product development a factors that has further disadvantaged them in emerging dynamic urban food markets that call for convenience, good packaging and product variety.

Bringing the traditional grains back to the dinner table will therefore be problematic as it will require the upgrading of the value chain of modern food system, RAND and ACET are conducting an intervention to increase consumption of traditional grains. The intervention includes a millet and sorghum cooking competition by top chef to demonstrate the many ways millet can be used to cook nutritious foods and develop a millet and sorghum recipes book as an output of the competition. We are also working with food manufacturers and together with a supermarket chain to use the recipes to develop high value health millet and sorghum products under the supermarket brand. This intervention aims to position traditional grains as healthy foods and catalyze the development of healthy branded premium sorghum and millet products target at the emerging middle class while at the same time building a strong supply chain that can link small holder farmers to markets to processors and to the emerging regional supermarket chains.

The short term objective is to improve the image of the traditional grain by targeting high income consumers whose consumption is an important signal in conferring a positive image. The intervention will also support processors and farmers to tackle the pressing challenges including the quelea bird and mechanization for farmers and the upgrading of equipment and knowhow on product development for SME food processors.

In the medium term the objective is to increase general demand by leverage the improved image and upgraded value chains to target the low income urban poor with low cost and nutritious ready-To-Eat (RTE) sorghum and millet products.

The overall impact will be greater resilience through increase diversity in diets and also increased consumption of draught resistant grains. Nutrition will also be improved due to increased consumption of more nutritious food products and poverty as millets and sorghum replace imported rice and wheat products.
## Geothermal Development in Kenya, a Climate resilient strategy?

C. Adongo (1); B. Hazard (2)

(1) EHESS, Anthropology, Paris, France; (2) Institut Interdisciplinaire d'anthropologie du contemporain, Institut National des Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS, Paris, France

Due to high vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity, Africa is predicted to contend with greater impacts resulting from climate change. This could potentially hamper past and future developments. 83% of Kenya, for example, consists of Arid and Semi Arid land inhabited by populations which are highly vulnerable. Moreover, there is indication that ASALS are increasing, one consequence of deforestation and climate change. According to the Stockholm Environment Institute (2009), major droughts occurring in 1998-2000, 2004/2005 and 2009 resulted in economic losses worth approximately $2.8 billion from water and energy deprivation. Declined water levels in dams for hydroelectric power production also caused widespread electric power rationing. In accordance with the Kyoto protocol, calling for countries to commit to decreasing green house gases, and the World Summit on sustainable Development (WSSD) specifically requiring countries to commit to producing 10% of their energy from renewables, the National climate Change Response strategy of 2010 asserts that following a low carbon development path will result in significant economic and environmental and social benefits. The focus is to zero rate taxes on renewable energy technologies and promote alternative renewable energy such as solar, bio fuels, wind and geothermal. Currently, the government is focusing on electricity production from geothermal sources, most of which lie within the central rift valley. Here, geothermal development can be considered a climate change mitigation measure as well as an adaptation mechanism. Firstly, with completion of the targeted 5300MW by 2030, the geothermal power production is projected to save 906008 tonnes of CO2/year and further reduce significantly, use of fossil fuels in electricity production. Secondly, Hydropower, on which Kenya depends for most of her electricity, is dependent upon climatic conditions and therefore highly vulnerable in the face of climate change. Thirdly, close to 80% or rural households and small businesses depend on biomass energy. Affordable energy is the most important energy source, seen as the most cost effective means of power production, could mean decreased dependence on biomass and subsequent deforestation. Fourthly, Non-annex 1 countries like Kenya; in undertaking mitigation projects can gain from 'carbon markets', which allows for trading in Certified emission Reduction (CER) credits. This contribution will explore the adoption and implementation of the geothermal industry in Kenya as a significant pathway to climate resilience.

## Nubians as Egyptian Indigenous people and Climate Change Mitigation

EHM. Ahmed (1)

(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

Egypt and Sudan are the most populous countries in Africa and the Middle East. Nile River is considered as a very important artery that joins Sudan and Egypt. Nile was an important part of ancient Egyptian spiritual life.

Nubian peoples are an ethnic group; they considered as one of the most ancient people all over the world, their civilization started more than 8.000 years ago. Lake Nasser is the second largest man-made lake in the world; among the impacts that were anticipated were the resettlement of the Nubian population in the area inundated by the reservoir, saving of historic monuments, health impacts and coastal erosion.

The climate models all estimate a steady increase in temperatures for Egypt, with little intermedle variance. Somewhat more warming is estimated for summer than for winter.

However, since Egypt is mainly a desert and relies primarily on irrigated agriculture, precipitation over the country itself matters very little. Much more important are precipitation changes at the water sources of the Nile, which affect the vulnerability of water resources.

The potential impacts of climate change on coastal resources are ranked as most serious. Climate change induced only reinforces this trend. In addition to this high biophysical exposure to the risk of sea level rise, Egypt's social sensitivity to sea level rise is particularly high.

In general, although the models on average show an increase in precipitation, inter-model variation is so high that it is uncertain as to predict whether annual average precipitation will increase or decrease.

## A meta-analysis of long-term land management effect on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in Ethiopia

AS. Dakka (1)

(1) University of Bern (UB) and USAID/Ethiopia, Science faculty (ub) asset and livelihood in transition office (usaid), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

The role of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in mitigating climate change, indicating soil quality and ecosystem function has created research interested to know the nature of SOC at landscape level. The objective of this study was to examine variation and distribution of SOC in a long-term land management at a watershed and plot level.

This study was based on meta-analysis of three case studies and 128 surface SOC data from Ethiopia. Three sites (Gununo, Anjeni and Maybar) were compared after considering two land management categories (LMC) and three types of land uses (LUT) in quasi-experiment design.

Shapiro-Wilk tests showed non-normal distribution (p=0.002, α=0.05) of the data SOC median value showed the effect of long-term land management with values of 2.29 and 2.38 (g/kg) for less and better-managed watersheds respectively. SOC values were 1.7, 2.8 and 2.6 (g/kg) for Crop (CLU), Grass (GLU) and Forest Land Use (FLU) respectively. The rank order for SOC variability was FLU>GLU>CLU. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant difference in the medians and distribution of SOC among the LUT, between soil profiles (p<0.05, confidence interval 95%, α=0.05) while it is not significant <0.05 for LMC. The mean and sum of rank of Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis test also showed the difference at watershed and plot level. Using SOC as a predictor, cross-validated correct classification with discriminant analysis showed 46% and 49% for LUT and LMC respectively. The study showed how to categorize landscapes using SOC with respect to land management for decision-makers.

## Reconstructing 200 years of human-induced soil erosion in the Lake Baringo catchment (Kenya) based on sedimentology and geochemistry of lake sediments

A. Degefa (1); I. Bessem (1); R. Tjallingii (2); B. Cumming (3); D. Verschuren (1)

(1) Ghent University, Biology, Limnology Unit, Gent, Belgium;

(2) German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Climate dynamics and landscape evolution, Potsdam, Germany; (3) Quen's University, Biology, Ontario, Canada

Summary. Land degradation due to loss of vegetation and fertile soils by strong erosion during the rainy season is one of the major environmental problems affecting the Lake Baringo catchment in Kenya's central Rift Valley. In this study we used magnetic susceptibility, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and grain-size measurements on sediment cores from Lake Baringo to trace the variable influence of human activity on catchment soil erosion through time. The three studied sediment sequences, recovered from different offshore locations, display a similar stratigraphy of fine-grained and low-organic lacustrine clays deposited above stiff clays representing a desiccation horizon dated to the late 18th - early 19th century.
High-resolution magnetic susceptibility and XRF data reveal a cyclic pattern of peak values with apparently annual periodicity, particularly in sediments dated to the early to mid-20th century. It is interpreted as alternating seasonal spikes of sediment influx from rivers and direct run-off, linked to increased population and livestock pressure. Results of grain-size analysis indicate that the very fine-grained clay sediments dominating this particular zone are derived from old lacustrine sediments, originally deposited in offshore areas of the early Holocene 'mega-lake' Baringo, but which is now part of the gently-sloping Rift Valley plains surrounding the lake today. Sediment thickness above the desiccation horizon increases towards the southern end of the lake, due to high sediment influx from the Perkerra and Molo Rivers, which drain the largest catchment area. Lead-210 dating of these 200-year sequences shows that variation in the rate of sediment accumulation is strongly influenced by historical lake-level fluctuations, with accumulation maxima occurring during lowstands due to sediment being concentrated into smaller area of accumulation.

P-3329-05

## Understanding the Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects in East Africa. Case Study of Rice Farmers in Bugesera District, Rwanda

G. Rwanyiziri (1)

(1) University of Rwanda, Centre for geographical information systems and remote sensing (cgis), Huye, Rwanda

Located in the Eastern region of Africa, Rwanda has been faced with unusual irregularities in climate patterns including extreme temperatures, variability in rainfall frequencies and intensity over the last 30 years. In fact, the analysis of rainfall shows that, since 1992, Rwanda has been characterized by a declining trend with a remarkable variability in rainfall frequencies and intensity which resulted into serious floods in 1997-1998 and a prolonged drought in 1999-2000. This study has been conducted in Bugesera District to reveal the effects of climate change on rice farmers. According to the results, the rise in temperature and changes in the amount of rainfall and its distribution have altered the availability of water resources, consequently affecting the productivity of rice. The variability in the onset of the rainy season has led to variation in the start of the planting season which has negatively affected the production of rice. Assessment of people's perceptions on ongoing change on rainfall and temperature patterns, and their adaptation strategies has been made. The respondents accept that there is a change happening in their area and have already started to feel its impacts. The study revealed that yields of rice have been distorted by changes in precipitation, temperature, as well as soil moisture. Flooding in lower zones of altitude along river Akanyaru have been reported for many times in the study area as causing the submergence of rice fields thereby damaging the growth and reducing the productivity of rice. In adaptation to climatic change effects, rice farmers have started to take on some adaptation measures. These measures include constructing water reservoir to collect water for irrigation use in the dry season, switching to new varieties of rice that resist to drought and flooding, and application of pesticides to combat with pests.

# 3330a - Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3330a-01

#### Observatories, a Key Tool to Tackle Climate Changes in Tropical Regions

T. Lebel (1); C. Peugeot (2); M. Grippa (3); S. Galle (1)

(1) IRD, LTHE, 38041 Grenoble Cedex, France; (2) IRD, Hydrosciences montpeller (hsm), Montpellier, France; (3) Université de Toulouse, Get, Toulouse, France

For both physical and socio-economic reasons, tropical regions are highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the model projections are more uncertain than for many other regions of the world, especially regarding the hydrologic cycle that is the key driver for water resources, agriculture and food security. The various components of the continental water balance display a strong variability over a large range of space and time scales that are not properly documented by the operational meteorological and hydrological networks. This natural variability of the water cycle challenges our ability to detect significant trends potentially linked to the global warming and/or other factors, such as land use changes or ecosystem evolutions. While detecting changes in the annual mean of precipitation, runoff or deep infiltration is not always self-evident, it is still much more challenging to assess significant changes in the extreme values, because the less frequent are the phenomena to observe, the longer should be the period of observations to detect a statistically significant non-stationary. This set of issues applies in much the same way to other key components of our environment, such as for instance, erosion, dust transportation, soil resources.

Adequate observing systems allowing the documentation of both the climate evolution at regional scale and its impacts on the air quality, radiative budgets, hydrology and vegetation are thus a key tool for a fine characterization of climate change and for providing decision makers with the appropriate knowledge to be used for implementing and following ambitious public policies in order to mitigate its socio-environmental consequences. In the long run, observing systems are also crucial for improving climate models, especially when it comes to the simulation of variables -such as rainfall, river flows, dust transportation - that display the largest interannual variability.

This will be illustrated through the history and achievements of the AMMA-CACTH and other observing systems (IDAF, PHOTONS, Dust-Transact, GPS) providing the ground to debate the need for consolidating a collaborative strategy for tropical climate change observations and to discuss how to reinforce the science/policy interfaces in this area.

### K-3330a-02

#### Climate Change Projections in the Sahel. The what and the why

M. Biasutti (1)

(1) Columbia University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States of America

This talk will review the projected 21st century changes in temperature and precipitation at seasonal and sub seasonal scale in Subsaharan Africa, with particular emphasis on the Sahel and the West African Monsoon region.

Greenhouse-gas induced temperature increases are large compared to interannual variability and such forced seasonal temperature anomalies are decoupled from the occurrence of drought or pluvials; this results in a robust projection of unprecedented seasonal temperatures by mid-century.

Precipitation anomalies remain more uncertain. In the Sahel, although outlier models remain, the ensemble anomalies indicate lesser precipitation totals in the west and greater in the east, and a change in seasonality that is manifest in a delay in the beginning, peak, or demise of the rainy season.

Additionally, we present the projected changes in the characteristics of rainfall and in the occurrence of extreme events and we evaluate the robustness of such anomalies with respect to the model uncertainty, natural variability, and the use of statistical downscaling to debias daily rainfall and temperature.

Finally, we interpret seasonal rainfall anomalies in terms of thermodynamic and dynamic forcings and in terms of regional and global modes of change. We emphasize the role of the large-scale circulation and the forcing from both the tropical and the midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies.
## External forcing and Sahelian African climate anomalies - A study between the WAMME project

Y. Xue (1); W. Lauan, (2); A. Boone, (3); Sl. Seidou (4); W. Thiaw (5); L. Druyan, (6); D. Rowell (7)

(1) Professor, UCLA, Dept. of geography & dept. of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, Los Angeles, United States of America; (2) 2. University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, United States of America; (3) CNRM, Toulouse, France; (4) Centre Regional AGRHYMET/CISS, Niamy, Niger, Republic of (5) S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, College Park, United States of America; (6) Goddard Institute for Space Studies/NASA and Columbia University, New York City, United States of America; (7) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

The Sub-Sahara Africa is a diverse climatic and economically fragile region and dramatic change over the Sahelian climate conditions in the 1950s to much drier conditions in the 1970s-1980s and then to partial recovery from the 1990s represents one of the strongest interdecadal climate variability and the longest drought on the planet in the twentieth century. A significant climatic feature in the Sahelian Africa is the West African monsoon (WAM), which variability dominates the climate variability there. However, the CMIP5 coupled models underestimate the WAM decadal variability and the drought. Although encouraging progresses have been achieved, many systematic and robust biases of the coupled and atmospheric models have not improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5. It is necessary to have comprehensive understanding on the past Sub-Sahara decadal variability and predictability to provide reliable assessment of future climate change and adequate strategy for mitigation and adaptation under changing climate.

In past several decades, the West African climate communities have recognized the importance of external forcings: oceans, land processes including land cover and land use change (LULCC), aerosols, and greenhouse gases, on WAM variability, especially their roles in the Sahel drought. However, most of these studies only focused on one external forcing with one single model. The West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) is a primary contribution to both general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) with the objective to collectively provide best estimation of the relative importance of all those external forcing on WAM at seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. WAMME research activities are closely coordinated with those of AMMA, involving many African institutions. The observational and other relevant datasets acquired from AMMA provide important benchmark for assessing the role of external forcing in regional climate variability and anomalies.

In this paper, we mainly present the latest results from the WAMME-2, which is designed to test how seasonal and decadal variabilities of WAM precipitation are associated with external forcings, and assess their relative contributions in producing/amplifying the WAM seasonal and decadal climate variability. The sensitivity of the WAM variability to those external forcings is also examined. The WAMME-2 strategy is to apply observational data-based anomaly forcing of SST, land surface and aerosols, i.e., «idealized but realistic» forcing, in GCM and RCM simulations with the specific purpose of estimating the relative impacts of each forcing and feedback mechanisms.

In the SST experiment, in addition to the global SST effect, each ocean is also forced by the preliminary results from most GCMs. Consistently, indicate that SST has a maximum impact on the WAM decadal variability compared with other forcings, and that the effect of the Pacific Ocean is most dominant. The models, however, differ in producing other oceans' contribution. Moreover, the models with specified maximum SST anomaly forcing are still unable to produce full Sahel drought (only slightly above 50% of the full drought). In the LULCC experiment, a newly available land use change map is applied. A consistent change in the vegetation maps is imposed for each modeling group. The simulated LULCC impact is also substantial, compatible to but less than the SST forcing (about 40% of the drought). In the dust experiment, the direct impact of dust on the radiation budget and its influence to the Sahel rainfall are evaluated using the GOCART dust data and its effect also contributes to the drought (less than 20% of the drought). In addition,

some preliminary results for impact of the greenhouse and global warming on the Sub-Sahara climate decadal variability will also be presented.

WAMME is the first attempt to use multi-GCMs and RCMs to collectively explore the roles of multiple external forcing in WAM variability. WAMME2's achievement provide better understanding of relative importance of various forcing and power feedback mechanisms, complementary to experiments under CMIP. which are focused more on impacts of emission scenarios, and CORDEX, which is focus on RCM downscaling ability. The results from WAMME should provide useful information to analyze and understand the CMIP results for future climate change and help design impacts scenarios and plan adaptation options.

## Projected Climate Conditions over West Africa for the End of the 21st Century: Impact on Extreme Precipitation Events

MB. Sylla (1); D. Wisser (2); N. Elgundi (3); F. Giorgi (3)

(1) WASCAL Competence Center, Climate Modeling and Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) University of Bonn, Center for development research (zef), Bonn, Germany; (3) Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Earth system physics (esp) section, Trieste, Italy

Global warming resulting from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing will substantially alter West African regional climate conditions. 21st century projections from both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) indicate lower warming among the Gulf of Guinea, Saharan zone, and greater warming in the Sahel and the Sahara desert. In addition, mean precipitation changes and trends exhibit more complex, seasonally varying spatial patterns from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel and from the orographic areas to the flatter regions.

Investigating how these combined temperature and precipitation changes will affect the climate of West Africa requires a multivariate approach. Climate classifications integrate the influence of energy and moisture in order to define the climate of a region, and are thus well-suited tools for this purpose. As climate is the major influence on biological life, such classification is critical for the region, particularly at the time during which the loss of major ecosystems and croplands is a fact. Information on projected climate types over West Africa can thus enable the impact community to develop mitigation strategies and adaptation measures for the most vulnerable areas.

In this context, recent studies identified also substantial increases of very high monthly precipitation and an amplification of daily precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st Century. These increases in extremes are considerably spatially variable over West Africa and mostly driven by an intensification of the local hydrological cycle. However, key sectors and activities in West Africa may be more vulnerable to the seasonal timing of the occurrence of extremes than its yearly average. Estimating and understanding such seasonal and sub-seasonal changes is important for the formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies. For example if an increase in high intensity rainfall events is concurrent to the peak of the rainy season, this may result in widespread flooding requiring strong responses. As another example, in the case of pre-monsoon high intensity rainfall events, early deployment of flood control measures may be required.

In this study, the revised Thornthwaite climate classification is employed to investigate the shift of West African climatic zones in response to future anthropogenic climate change under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and RCP8.5) from multiple data sources: ensembles of GCMs from RCPs, RCM simulations from CORDEX and higher-resolution RegCM4 simulations over West Africa. The use of multiple ensembles enables us to assess the robustness of the response, and in particular the extent to which the higher resolution experiments offer added regional details. In addition, the study also examines how such a shift impacts on the timing of extreme events. In particular, we focus on the response to increasing GHG concentrations of the annual cycle of high intensity precipitation events specifically during the pre-monsoon (April–June), mature monsoon (July–September)