agricultural system adaptation to climate change by enhancing productivity and improving crop quality traits. Here, we explore the role of crop-climate models in informing breeding, and identify research gaps. We focus in particular on simulation of genotypic adaptation options with crop models, and on assessing the robustness of crop-climate information, with particular focus on Sub-Saharan African maize. First we present an extensive review and meta-analysis of recently published literature with regards to genotypic adaptation. Second, we develop a numerical analysis of climate information using Sub-Saharan African maize as a case study. Our review of model literature suggests that yield gains of up to 50% can be achieved by breeding improved varieties. However, we find that critical knowledge gaps remain if climate model information and/or model-based projections of genotypic adaptation are to be used in the development of breeding agendas. First, certain key processes and their interactions (e.g. ozone damage, CO2 stimulation, CO2 x temperature) are still poorly represented in models, largely due to a lack of understanding, thus stressing a need for further experimentation and model evaluation. Secondly, crop model parameters are often not adequately linked to the effect of alleles on given loci or genes controlling key traits. Finally, model scale mismatches and/or model misuse accompanied with poor sampling of the model and parameter space is likely to underestimate the importance of uncertainty. Assessments of robustness are therefore a critical modelling need to underpin decision-making.

For maize in Sub-Saharan Africa, we used bias-corrected CMIP5 data to demonstrate that climate model information is robust at a range of scales, from sub-national (i.e. ~200x200 km) to the mega-environment scale. With the former being the scale at which national breeding programs set their targets and the latter being the scale at which long-term international breeding goals are set, this means that climate model information can be useful to both processes. We find early and robust changes in crop duration in all mega-environments but weak changes in drought and heat stress. These results suggest that crop-climate models can provide information regarding lead times at which some (though not all) processes become important under climate change, as well as on the rates at which certain crop traits need to change. For some breeding programmes this might enable priority setting for breeding in a changing climate. However, if the full potential of model-based information for breeding is to be realised, we stress that more work is needed on the coupling between genetic and crop growth models, as this will ultimately result in modelled traits that are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. Given the complex nature of the models needed for this endeavour, it is critical that (1) understanding of driving processes under future climates continues is improved (so that traits can be prioritised in target areas), and (2) individual model component testing against observational data is performed.

## P-3330-68

### Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa

D. Rowell (1); B. Booth, (1); S. Nicholson. (2); P. Good (1)

(1) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) Florida State University, Department of earth, ocean and atmospheric science, Tallahassee, United States of America

It is well known that rainfall during the East African Long Rains season has declined over recent decades, whereas the majority of climate models predict an increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. This raises questions about either the reliability of the model projections, or when we might expect this drought to turn to more abundant rainfall and perhaps more frequent flooding.

We first list all hypotheses that may conceivably explain this paradox, our aim being to include all possibilities regardless of preconceptions as to their likelihood:

* A: The recent observed trend is due to poor quality data.

* B: The projected trend arises from poor modelling of key processes.

* C: Trends are due to natural variability. • D: The balance between competing forcings is changing, with the past trend driven by aerosol emissions and the future trend driven by carbon emissions.

* E: The past trend has been driven by land-use changes.

* F: The mechanistic response to CO2 emissions is nonlinear

* Some combination of the above.

Regarding A, there is good observational evidence for a recent downward trend in rainfall. Regarding B, careful and substantial further research is essential to confidently refute or accept this idea.

The possibility that the observed trend is due to natural variability (C) is assessed using two approaches. Both suggest that the recent Long Rains droughts are either due to a very unusual natural event of the climate system, or more likely are at least partly due to anthropogenic forcing. Hypothesis D, that the recent observed rainfall trend may be due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions, eg. from Asia, is investigated using CMIP5 sensitivity experiments. These reveal a sometimes significant, but highly model-dependent, impact on SST trends over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which are thought to have caused the recent Long Rains droughts. Other CMIP5 experiments suggest that land-use changes are unlikely to have caused the recent droughts, and that the response to CO2 forcing over East Africa is not substantially nonlinear (Hypotheses E and F).

Further work should therefore focus on improving the modelling of aerosol impacts on regional rainfall changes, on providing a well-considered 'expert judgement' of the reliability of the model's projections for the coming century, and better understanding the relevant natural variability.

## P-3330-69

### Crop-Climate ensemble scenarios to reduce uncertainty in agroclimatic risks estimation under 2°C regional warming

S. Salack (1)

(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Munich, Germany

The estimation of the response of rainfed crops to heat stress and water stress requires adequate accounting for the uncertainty in climatic and non-climatic factors that affect impact assessments. The objective of this research is to narrow the range of values characterizing the limits within which estimates are expected to fall in the diagnostics of agroclimatic risks. Assessments are made by analyzing historical observations and evaluating the influence of heat stress and rainfall variability on crop water demand, on biomass and on grain yields of short-cycle cultivars of pearl millet and maize. We use a wide range of consistent and practical sets of crop model ensemble analyses (based on crop management practices: seedling densities, fertilization levels, early/late sowing dates and soil types), and climate model ensembles from two climate change hypothesis (A1b & RCP8.5) over the West African Sudan-Sahel (WASS). Recent rainfall developments shows that hazardous sub-seasonal rainfall distribution affects crop productivity with increased frequency and intensity of daily rainfall, false start, early cessation of the rainy season and decreasing diurnal temperature range. In 2011-2050 perspectives, relative to the 1981-2010 baseline, a slight increase in temperature (i.e. +0.6 to +0.8 °C) combined with a stationary-to-moderate decrease in precipitation leads to a 10-15% (8-15%) decrease in above-ground biomass production (grain yield). When the warming is moderate (i.e. +1.4 to 1.8°C), the decline in grain yield worsens (10-20%) despite a slight increase in rainfall projections. At these rates of loss in crop production, resilience can be re-enforced. However, it will require that climate-smart crop management practices are embedded in sub-seasonal and interannual monitoring and early warning systems.

## P-3330-70

### An observatory for farmers adaptation to climate change in Thies district

A. Sall (1)

(1) Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal
In 2011, the Centre de Suivi Ecologique and Senegalese partners have developed an innovative participatory observatory. Through exchanges between researchers, policy makers, farmers organizations and NGOs in the Thiès district, the observatory plays a crucial role by sharing useful information for vulnerable communities to adapt to climate variability and change. For example farmers selected millet varieties more resilient to increase yields and fodder reserves.

### P-3330-71

## Assessment of water availability and demand in lake Guiers, Senegal

D. Sambou (1)

(1) West African Science Center on Climate change and Land Use - WASCAL, GRP Climate change / Water resource, Cotonou, Benin

Water resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurized Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater source throughout the dry season, which lasts 9-10 months a year. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds.

To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we will investigate future water situation (water availability and water demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of population growth until 2050 for an efficient long-term planning of water management.

Scenarios of future water availability and water demand will be developed and quantified using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system).

### P-3330-72

## A systemic approach to evaluate shea parklands as possible climate smart agriculture to be intensified in Sudanese Africa : the multidisciplinary RAMSES Project

J. Seghieri (1); BF. Brigitte Bastide (2); G. Cesaire (3)

(1) I.R.D., GDGS-Département Environnement et Ressources, Montpellier cedex 5, France; (2) INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) INRAB, Cotonou, Benin

We have set up a project on the « Roles of shea parklands in Reduction of vulnerability of Agrosystems and Societies in Sub-Saharan Africa » (RAMSES) that has been submitted to several potential funders. This project ambitions to evaluate possible regeneration, extension and ecological intensification of shea production in Sudanese Africa, which is the only area supplying the international market with shea nuts (chocolate industry) and butter (cosmetic industry). By this agroforestry practices, sub-Saharan societies seem to respond spontaneously to the MEA, during the last three years, while minimizing environmental degradation and deforestation impacts linked to extension of the cultivated areas. However, ecosystem services provided by shea trees are neither known nor quantified. Interactions between shea parklands and their associated socioeconomic systems is also currently in tension between the increasing demand at the international level and local degradations of shea stands with increasingly limited regeneration. This results in worrying water resource in urban centres capacity while enhancing competition between farmers, between genders (shea producers are women, trees and plots belong to men), or between private buyers on which the project propose a diagnosis. The project is based on multi-disciplinary investigations in two countries that are representative of the diversity of biophysical and socio-economic situations of the shea parklands, Benin and Burkina Faso. It ambitions

to provide 1) a classification, with a geographic mapping support, of ecological combined to socio-economic conditions in which parklands are still viable from a past half-century diachronic and spatial analysis of their trajectory drivers; 2) under conditions where viability is proven, an assessment of increasing trees density impacts (i) on ecosystem services (ii) on the farms income, by using quantification of the processes underlying services provided by trees, and a bio-economic model to simulate different trees density.

### P-3330-73

## The ESCAPE project: an inter-disciplinary study on vulnerability, resilience and adaptation of rural societies to environmental changes in Africa

B. Sultan (1)

(1) I.RD, LOCEAN, Paris, France

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of naturally high levels of climate variability, high reliance on climate sensitive activities such as rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change. Urgent actions are required to tackle the issues raised by climate change in SSA and these actions need to be supported by the best knowledge available. ESCAPE is a 5-year research project started in 2011 funded by the National Research Agency which aims to revitalize research in SSA in this field through an integrated interdisciplinary framework for increasing our understanding of the problem and support decision making for the future. ESCAPE addresses the vulnerability of rural societies in SSA to climate and environmental changes and explores adaptation pathways to reduce this vulnerability. The project fosters interdisciplinary research, through both retrospective and prospective studies, in Senegal, Niger, Benin and Mali, on the evolution of different agricultural, ecological and social systems interacting together under the global environmental changes.

### P-3330-74

## The easterly water vapour transport from Indian monsoon and its role in the variability of west african monsoon

A. Sy (1); D. B. (2)

(1) University Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Senegal; (2) University Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Senegal

West Africa region is one of the poorest in the world and most of its economic activities depend on the rainy season. In Sahel region and in many other regions of the tropics rainfall is largely related to the intensity of convection. But since the 70s strong of observed variations in rainfall marked by a decrease in rainfall in this area. This work is focused on study of water vapour fluxes at high altitude from Indian monsoon and contributing to the supply of convective systems in Sahel. Squall lines are responsible for a large portion of the rain observed in this area. They are defined as a thick cloud system moving from east to west at a speed of about 14 m / s. Consist of a convective part, the shea monsoon uniform part, they have a life cycle left in four (4) phases: training, increased maturity and dissipation (Leary and Housey 1979). Several researchers have studied the advection of water vapour on Squall- lines (Peugeot et al 2011, Meynaud et al 2010, Cadet and Nnoli 1989, De Felice et al. 1982), which plays an essential role in their life. Cadet and Nnoli showed that easterly waves strongly contribute to water vapour transport to West Africa. De Felice et al. think that the amount of water vapour present in the medium and high layers of atmosphere in Sahel could come from the Indian monsoon and neighboring regions and transported by prevailing easterly flux during this period.

For this work we used ECMWF datasets, daily averages wind and humidity measured at 200hPa/1000hPa levels pressure and daily average OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) NCEP / NCAR grid 2.5x2.5 the rainy season June-July-August-September during the period 2001- 2010. The study focused on 20°W-90°E Longitude 0°-30°N Latitude area covering West Africa to India. The water
vapour column available in West Africa is the result of a
contribution from the south-westerly monsoon (1000-
850hPa) on one hand and easterly fluxes (850-300hPa) on
other hand (R. Meynadier 2010 Dème A. 2002, De Felice
et al. 1982). To detect and study the fluxes supposed to
come from the Indian monsoon we consider the top (500-
300hPa) of the high layer knowing that the middle layer
(850-500hPa) brings water vapour through the African
Easterly Jet.

We have calculated the fluxes from qV (When q: Specific
Humidity, V = u + v zonal and Meridional wind).

We performed Hövmoeller diagrams of fluxes computed
on 500-300hPa layers and it appears very clear so water
vapour advection in the upper layers of the altitude to Africa
from joining the column available water.

These water vapour movements have an intra-seasonal
and inter-annual variability during the 2001-2003 and
2006-2010 summers.Water vapour fluxes calculated on
the 450e-700e area longitude and latitude 100n-200n are
oriented towards Africa and reach a maximum of about
25 kg/m/s during the summers from 2001 to 2003 and a
maximum of 36 kg/m/s observed in 2010 August.

To follow these fluxes up to the Sahel we considered the
400e-150e and 500e-350e areas further west, on 50n-
200n latitude.It was noted an increasing of the quantities
of westward water vapour advected in this part of the
trophosphere during the years studied.June 2010 due low
values of olr (cloudiness) in Chad appear between 3 to
5 days after initiation in India of a westerly flow. The
lowest values of olr observed in Chad in late August 2010
follow relatively large amounts (33; 36 kg/m/s) of water
vapour flux from India.

P-3330-75

Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater
availability for Senegal: Modeling Future
Changes in Hydro-climatology of Lake of
Guiers

M. Tall (1); I. Diallo (2); MB. Sylla (3); A. Gaye (4)

(1) Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphere et de l'Ocean-Simeon-Fongan (LPAC-SF), Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique (2); Université Cheikh Anta DIOP (UCAD), Dakar, Senegal; (2) Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Ecole supérieure polytechnique, Dakar, Senegal; (3) WASCAL Competence Center, Climate Modeling and Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (4) Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Lpaofo, Dakar, Senegal

The future climate change could have a major impact on the
hydrological systems. The hydroclimatology of the
northern Senegal, especially over the basin of the lake
Guiers' (north Senegal) for the present and the last 21st
century has been analyzed; based on simulation from
the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4. RegCM4
simulations have been performed with a horizontal
resolution of 25 km (0.22 X 0.22") for the 1985-2004
period and 2080-2099 period under both the RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 emission scenario over the West African domain.
Initial and Lateral boundary conditions are taken from the
ECHAM6 Earth System Model. Overall RegCM4 reproduces
reasonably the spatial distribution of precipitations and
temperatures as well as its month-to-month variations
over both the northern Senegal and the basin of the Guiers'
lake area. RegCM4 projects with both emission scenarios
a rising of temperatures and a decrease of the rainfall in
the late 21st century. Therefore the rising of temperature
as well as the weakening of rainfall is more intense in the
scenario RCP8.5. On the other hands, RegCM4 projects an
evaporation decrease over the lake basin reaching up
to 40% under the RCP8.5 emission scenario followed by
an enhancement of runoff over the lake basin and the
north of Senegal. This increase of runoff would resulted
probably from the either the enhancement of the aditya by
the end of 21stcentury or and from probably an increase
of extreme events such as heavy rains.

P-3330-76

Effect of seasonal variability on the
incidence and transmission patterns of
malaria in urban, peri-urban and rural com-
 communities around Kumasi, Ghana

S. Tay (1)

(1) School of Medical Sciences Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Kumasi, Ghana

Changes in temperature, rainfall and relative humidity are expected to influence malaria directly, by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of malaria vectors and by increasing or decreasing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. This study was aimed at investigating the impact of these changes on malaria incidence in the Kumasi metropolis and a rural district in the Ashanti region, Ghana. Data on climatic variables from December 2009 - November 2011 were obtained from Owabi, Emaena and Airport weather stations. Data on malaria cases from December 2009 - November 2011 were obtained from Nkawie hospital (near Owabi weather station), Anninwaa Medical Centre (near the KNUST Weather station) and Manhyia hospital (near Airport weather station) from December 2009 - November 2011. Based on malaria morbidity data, three communities were selected and sprayed for mosquitoes using the pyrethrum spray catch method. Data analysis was conducted with Microsoft Excel and Statistical Software Package, SPSS version (16.0). Pearson's correlation analysis was done to establish the relationship between climatic variables and malaria transmission. In all the communities, Anopheles gambiae was the highest mosquito vector caught with few or no Anopheles funestus over 60% of which were fed with the dry season recording the highest percentage of fed mosquitoes. Over 90% of the fed mosquitoes had fed on human blood. Sporozoite rates for Nkawie were 6% between April and July 2011, 5.6% between August and November 2011 and 2.6% between December 2010 and March 2011. In Emaena, the rates were 4.0%, 5.0% and 3.0% between April and July 2011, August and November 2011 and December 2010 and March 2011 respectively where Asawasi had 6.6%, 4.8% and 5% April and July 2011, August and November 2011 and December 2010 and March 2011 respectively. The annual Entomological inoculation rates (EIR) for Nkawie were 245.6, 203.6 and 52.4ib/p/yr April and July, August and November and December 2010 and March 2011. In Emaena, August to November recorded the highest annual EIR of 182.5ib/p/yr, followed by April to July with a value of 175.2ib/p/yr and then December 2010 to March 2011 with 9.9ib/p/yr. In Asawasi, April to July recorded the highest annual EIR of 245.4ib/p/yr followed by August to November and December 2010 and March 2011with 229.9ib/p/yr and 109.5ib/p/yr respectively. There were direct relationships between minimum temperature and human bite rate, maximum temperature and sporozoite rate, rainfall and number of mosquitoes caught during the study period and between malaria incidence and the entomological inoculation rate. There were also indirect relationship between maximum temperature and the number of mosquitoes caught. This research shows that malaria transmission is caused by a multiplicity of factors including climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors. These factors play diverse roles on malaria vector biology as well as on the parasite.

P-3330-77

Multi-decadal variability of Sahel Rain-
fall and African Easterly Waves in CMIP5
Models: Mechanisms, Model Fidelity and
Implications for Future Climate Change
Projections

C. Thorncroft (1); E. Martin, (2)

(1) Professor, University at Albany, Dept. of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States of America;
(2) The University of Oklahoma, School of meteorology,
Norman, United States of America

This study uses models from phase 5 of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to evaluate and
investigate multidecadal variability of Sahel rainfall and
teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures
(SSTs). The simulation of African easterly waves (AEWs) in
the CMIP5 models is also evaluated as part of this work.

Multidecadal variability of Sahel rainfall is lower than
observed in all historical simulations evaluated. Focus
is on teleconnections with North Atlantic SST (Atlantic
multidecadal variability (AMV)) as it is more successfully
simulated than the Indian Ocean teleconnection. To
investigate why some models successfully simulated this
teleconnection and others did not, despite having similarly
large AMV, two groups of models were compared. Models with large AMV were highlighted as good (or poor) by their ability to simulate relatively high (low) Sahel multidecadal variability and have significant (not significant) correlation between multidecadal Sahel rainfall and an AMV index. Poor models fail to capture the teleconnection between the AMV and Sahel rainfall because the spatial distribution of SST multidecadal variability across the North Atlantic is incorrect. A lack of SST signal in the tropical North Atlantic and Mediterranean reduces the interhemispheric SST gradient and, through circulation changes, the rainfall variability in the Sahel. This pattern was also evident in the control simulations, where SST and Sahel rainfall variability were significantly weaker than historical simulations. The reasons for these errors will be discussed.

African earlywars are the major synoptic weather producer in the Sahelian region and the extent to which CMIP5 models represent them is important to know. Changes in AEW-activity may be expected to impact the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence for example. Large biases exist in the simulations of low-level (850 hPa) eddy kinetic energy (EKE, a proxy for AEW activity) in AMIP and historical simulations. CMIP5 models simulate excessive EKE and deficient rainfall south of 17N. The same biases exist in historical and AMIP models and are not a consequence of errors in sea surface temperatures. The models also struggle to accurately couple AEWs and rainfall, with little improvement from CMIP3 models. Future projections of the annual cycle of AEW activity show a reduction in late spring and early summer and a large increase between July and October that is consistent with rainfall projections in the Sahel but large differences exist in future projections between high and low resolution models. The simulation of AEWs is challenging for CMIP5 models and must be further explored in order to provide appropriate confidence levels of rainfall projections in the Sahel.

P-3330-78

## Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel

T. Vischel (1); G. Panthou (1); T. Lebel (1)

(1) Université Grenoble Alpes, Lle, Saint Martin d'Hères, France

Ongoing global warming raises the hypothesis of an intensification of the hydrologic cycle, extreme rainfall events becoming more frequent. However, the strong time-space variability of extreme rainfall makes it difficult to detect meaningful trends in the regime of their occurrence for recent years. Using an integrated regional approach, it is shown here that over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 21% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over 2001-2010: this climate is drier in the sense of a persisting deficit of rainfall occurrence compared to 1950-1969, while at the same time there is an increased probability of extreme daily rainfall.

P-3330-79

## Climate Change and Agricultural Production: capitalisation of the farming techniques for the food security in Benin

JB. Vodounou (1)

(1) University of Parakou, Département de Géographie et Aménagement du Territoire, Parakou, Benin, Benin

The capitalization of the farming techniques for food security in Benin has been studied. The effects of climate change have impacted the farming techniques of the populations in order to adapt to the new conditions imposed by climate. Throughout the country, the rainfall changeableness have modified not only the dates of seeding but also the abandonment of some speculations. In order to ensure their food security, the populations have proceeded to a revision of their farming techniques. The situation in Benin can be summarized as follows three zones (North, Centre and South). As a matter of

fact, in the north 40% of the yielded speculations today can be considered as introduced twenty years ago. In this area in the years 60s there are crops such as yam, voandzou, maize, peanuts, and garden pea. The current crops are yam, maize, and sorghum. Crops such as peanuts, voandzou are more and more withdrawn from the speculation ranges. Furthermore, the situation in the centre of Benin is enough animated. In effect, about 65% yielded speculations in the past were abandoned at the profit of new estimated ones more adapted to the current climatic conditions. To ensure their food security, the populations of this zone have spared the speculations such as maize, yam, and peanut. Crops such as sorghum, millet, voandzou and garden peas are almost given up and replaced by soya which represents now the speculation that occupies 45% of the farmed surfaces. In the south of the country, about 30% only of the farming techniques have undergone changes. The climatic changeableness has provoked for instance the introduction of cotton crop which in the past was quasi impossible. But one must understand that in majority the south spends much more on the centre and north as regard food crops.

P-3330-80

## Role of groundwater in buffering changes in climatic and anthropogenic conditions: experiences from Sub-Saharan Africa

JM. Vouillamoz (1); C. Tindimugaya (2)

(1) Ird, lrd/ujf-grenoble-1/cns/g-inp - urm lthe, Cotonou, Benin; (2) Ministry of water and environment, Commissioner for water resources planning and regulation, Kampala, Uganda

Currently, more than 300 million people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water. Expanding irrigation to enhance food security is also a growing necessity. Moreover, most countries where population is expected to grow rapidly in the future are the same countries that have high levels of malnourishment and also limited access to drinking water. The proportion of the population that depends on groundwater for its daily water supply is estimated at about 75%. In the future, the ability to increase reliable access to water supplies will also depend on the development of groundwater, which is generally the only perennial water source in arid and semi-arid regions. One of the most important advantages of groundwater as compared to surface water is its much slower response to climate and anthropogenic changes. Indeed, the amount of water stored in the rock reservoir buffers the transient response of the system to conditions that vary over time. Thus, increasing appropriate groundwater supplies in Africa can significantly increase the resilience of communities to climate variability.

One of the most important difficulties in assessing groundwater resources is that groundwater is underground and hence hidden from our eyes. Reliable quantification of groundwater storage and recharge is not straightforward. Moreover, the projected impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge obtained from large-scale models are uncertain, and the scale of models is not appropriate to groundwater systems which are spatially heterogeneous over about 40% of Africa surface area where hard rock aquifers occur.

To illustrate the role groundwater can play in buffering changes, we present the results of a study carried out in Benin in a widespread environment of Sub-Saharan Africa (i.e. hard rock aquifers). Thanks to a novel approach, we determined the groundwater storage of our study area (27,200km²) to be 440mm+/-70mm. To assess the buffer capacity of aquifers, we compared groundwater storage to groundwater discharge. Groundwater discharge is the sum of natural discharge plus human abstraction. We evaluated human abstraction at less than 1% of total groundwater discharge. We conclude that increased abstraction due to population growth will probably have a small impact on storage. We calculated buffering capacity as the ratio of current storage to total discharge, and obtained a result of 6years+/-47months. This buffer capacity confirms groundwater's ability to buffer changes. Finally, our study is intended to promote a more quantitative approach to assessing groundwater resources and to support our ability to adapt to future changes.
# Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on total non-accidental mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006-2010

J. Wichmann (1)

(1) University of Pretoria, School of Health Systems and Public Health, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa

## INTRODUCTION

Although many studies of temperature have been conducted in other disciplines such as climatology, they have only received greater attention in public health and epidemiology in the past decade. However, very few studies have been conducted in Africa and none which also controlled for possible confounding by air pollution. Epidemiological studies are crucial to understand possible local human health impacts due to climate change, and to the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate such impacts.

## METHODS

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of heat effects of ambient apparent temperature (Tapp) on total non-accidental mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa (2006–2010) using the time-series and case-crossover epidemiological study designs. The heat effect was investigated for apparent temperature above the city threshold, 15°C, 20°C and 13°C for Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, respectively. The three cities are classified in different Köppen-Geiger climatic zones based on Town has a Mediterranean climate (Csb), Durban has a humid subtropical climate (Cfa), that closely borders a tropical wet and dry climate (Aw), Johannesburg has a subtropical highland climate (Cwb).

## RESULTS

In Cape Town, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 1.1% and 2.1% for all ages (60228 deaths) and >-60 year olds (28383 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 15°C (lag0-1). No heat effect was observed for 0-4 year olds (4649 deaths). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 27°C.

In Durban, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 1.0%, 1.4% and 1.9% for all ages (95269 deaths), >-60 year olds (28801 deaths) and 0-4 year olds (8628 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 20°C (lag0-1). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 31°C.

In Johannesburg, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 0.5% and 1.2% for all ages (94900 deaths) and >-60 year olds (31859 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 13°C (lag0-1). No heat effect was observed for 0-4 year olds (10080 deaths). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 24°C.

## CONCLUSION

These results indicate that the health of the South African population living in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg is at risk with increases in Tapp. The study will be expanded to include four other South African cities located in different Köppen-Geiger climatic zones. Cause-specific mortality, such as respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, will also be investigated.

# Participatory approach for the integrated management of a wet ecosystem in a context of climate change: Inner Niger Delta (Mali)

A. Zare (1) ; B. Barbier (2) ; D. Abdoulaye, (3) ; M. Bologo/traoré (4)

(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2IE), Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) CIRAD, Umr geau, Dakar, Senegal; (3) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2IE), Laboratoire d'hydraulique et des ressources en eau, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (4) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2IE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Long about 4100 km, the Niger River in its central part in

Mali, extends an area which can reach 40.00km2 called the Inner Niger Delta. Largest wetland in West Africa, delta's hydrosystem is constituted by main branches, effluents and distributaries of the river, ponds roaries, large lakes and channels. Right in the Sahel, the delta is an important productive ecosystem with a rich biodiversity. One million person derive their livelihood from this ecosystem through key activities such as fishing, livestock and agriculture mainly rice farming. With the climate crisis of the 70s, the Niger River Basin and its tributaries are subjected to high rainfall deficit causing a flood decrease in the delta. This resulted in a reduction of 50% of inundated areas. The climate crisis affects the socio-economic activities because the productivity is related to the hydrological regime and maximum areas inundated. There is also a demographic pressure leading to overexploitation and degradation of the delta ecosystem. This situation is not without creating tension in the management of resources, including use conflicts such as agricultural encroachment on pastoral areas; the non respect of transhumance calendar, use of prohibited fishing gear. The delta resources dwindle and production systems degrade and populations have to adapt.

Thus in this study we have developed with local stakeholders, sustainable management strategies of delta resources to deal with the marked variability of climate and demographic pressure. Strategies are a combination of technical options and economic instruments. Technical options include options locally developed complemented by a literature review covering WOCAT (World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies) technicals. Economic instruments have been selected with tools like the DST and DESS developed in the frame of AERAIMON project. The approach adopted is participative, mainly based on focus groups and workshops with stakeholders. Strategies contribute to the following goals: securing water in the delta, the assurance of integrated resource management; and strengthening the capacity of actors to the mastery of biodiversity conservation techniques and sustainable use of the resources.

# Interaction between moist Kelvin waves and synoptic variability of precipitation over Congo basin

S. Zebaze (1) ; L. Andre (2) ; T. Clément (1) ; S. Janicot (1)

(1) UNIVERSITY OF YAOUNDE I, PHYSICS, YAOUNDE, Cameroon; (2) University of Douala, Physics, Douala, Cameroon

The synoptic structure and variability of moist synoptic Kelvin waves over the Congo basin during March to June(1979-2010) are explored using satellite-observed brightness temperature (Tb), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysisData.We found that synoptic Kelvin waves (SKWs) activity is most predominant during March-May and it is centered at the equator where the convective active phase of these waves favors formation of convective synoptic systems. A brief analysis of an intense Kelvin wave in March-May 1999 ( active year) shows a clear impact of the wave on convective development and daily rainfall over Congo basin. Convection is found to be less frequent immediately prior to the passage of the convectively active phase of the convectively coupled atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave(CCKW), more frequent during the passage, and most frequent just after the passage. Otherwise, Results show marked interannual variability of Kelvin wave activity over Congo basin. The large synoptic variability of precipitation are observed from March-May which clearly denotes synoptic activity in this region. Interannual variability in the fluctuation strength of the wavelet power spectrum as well as in its distribution amount different periods. Strong signals clearly found at period between 4-6 day and 7-9 day. The location of peak SWKS convection are consistent with high rainfall location and clearly impacted crops yield over this region.
Extreme condition and climate change in
northern Africa during the last century

YD. Zépirin (1) ; M. David (2) ; C. Romeo (3)

(1) Institut National de Cartographie, Service de climatologie, Yaounde, France; (2) Université de Douala, Cameroon, Afrique, Département de physique, Douala, Cameroon; (3) Université de Yaounde I, Département de physique, Yaounde, Cameroon

Four homogenous climatic zones are detected in northern Africa (20°W-40°E, 0-30°N) by applying the Cluster Analysis (CA) method on the rainfall anomalies data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).The four climatic zoneswere distributed into Saharan, Sahelian, wet tropical and equatorial climate types. The application of a segment of 15 years with overlap going from 1901-1940 (P0), and 1961 to 2000 (P4) throughout the periods 1916-1955 (P1),

1931-1970 (P2) and 1946-1985 (P3),shows important
spatio-temporal modifications of rainfall zones south
of 15°N. The semi-aridlands (sahelian) which govern the
dynamics of this zone doubled at the end of the twentieth
century, while the wet tropical and equatorial zones
decreased at the half.

Temperature trends have a magnitude of up to 1.5 K per
century in all the four climatic zones. This warming has
mainly observed during the last three decades. During
these same three decades, regional precipitation trends
were less significant.For the four climatic zones, the
wavet power spectrum for the time series of yearly
average precipitation anomalieshowslies the timescale of
variability which is governed by 3 main periodicity bands:
less than 5 years, from 5 to 30 years and above 30 years.

The extreme conditions in temperature and the
precipitation were analysed in terms of their persistence.
The sporadic long-lasting extreme conditions appear for
several years tooover 10 years during the last century.

3331- Forest landscape management to create resilience in the
face of climate change in West and Central Africa

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-3331-01

Forest landscape management to create
resilience in the face of climate change in
West and Central Africa

L. Verchot (1) ; DJ. Sonwa (2) ; K. Fernandes (3) ; W. Baethgen (4) ; M. Pinedo-Vasquez, (1)

(1) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia; (2) CIFOR (Center for International Forestry Research), Forest and Environment Program, Yaounde, Cameroon; (3) Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY, United States of America; (4) Columbia University, International Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America

Deforestation in West and Central Africa is driven by economic concerns, primarily associated with the expansion of agriculture. Recent suggestions that deforestation is increasing in Africa are drawing attention for the associated emissions. There has been a lot of discussion and many documents written about the importance of forests in these regions for carbon sequestration. The potential role of forests in adapting to the stresses associated with climate variability and change are less well considered. For example, none of the Congo Basin countries highlighted potential impacts of climate change on forests as a source of national vulnerability in their first national communications to the UNFCCC. Yet evidence is accumulating that climate change has begun to affect the growth and condition of the Congo Basin forests and this will affect communities that depend on these forests for goods and services. A large number of stakeholders believe that climate change and climate variability do not threaten the forest ecosystems in the humid parts of the region. Threats are more readily recognized in the sub-humid and semi-arid regions. Other stakeholders contend that climate change adaptation needs to pay attention to the role forests play in landscapes and there are different opinions about whether adaptation and mitigation need to be considered separately or together. However, when we talk about forests, mitigation and adaptation concerns get into the hands of hand. This talk will look at the changing nature of climate and climate variability in the region and posit a number of climate associated risks for local livelihoods and economic development. We will then look at the goods and services provided by forests and examine the evidence that forests have an important role to play in resilience to climate variability and change. Finally we will look at how adaptation interests can be served by increasing tree plantations in rural African landscapes.

K-3331-02

The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel within the context of Climate Change

M. Malagnoux (1)

(1) French Scientific Committee on Desertification, Allinges, France

Common perception of desertification is the advancement of the desert through sand encroachment on fertile lands. Many images of the desert invading its surrounding lands are widespread in the general public. The idea of halting the desertification of the last three decades is based on many historical or recent successful examples of shelter belts and greenbelts protecting towns, infrastructures, oases and other fertile lands from shifting sands. In this context, why successful techniques at very high level could not be applied at large scale to halt the desert expansion? Large scale linear barriers have been proposed to control the northern and southern rims of the Sahara. The Algerian Green Barrier is an example of this approach.

However, desertification is defined by the UNCCD as "land degradation in arid, semiarid and dry sub humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities". Consequently, desertification is not an advance of existing deserts but rather the effect of localized degradation of the land. It follows deforestation, overgrazing or soil exhaustion due to the over exploitation of natural resources. Thus, desertification cannot be controlled by planting tree lines to stop desert progression. China launched in 1978 a large scale integrated management programme in an area of over 4 000 km long by almost 1 000 km wide named "The Three North Shelter Belt Project". In 1989, President Deng Xiaoping called this the "Green Great Wall" in reference to the ancient "Great Wall of China, to highlight the scope of the work. But it is by no way a bulwark against the desert despite what this nickname suggests.

The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel (GGW) launched by the African Union builds on these past experiences and aims at the implementation "of multisectoral initiatives and interventions to ensure natural resource conservation and protection with the aim of fighting poverty". This initiative has been much welcomed since the political mobilization of African countries around this concept is a clear sign of adoption and involvement. However, the scope of the programme is limited to a 15 km wide transcontinental belt running from Dakar to Djibouti. Within this belt some areas need actions while others have a stable environment where no action is needed. The continuity of the belt is not required. On the other side, areas outside the belt may need urgent action and the belt represents a small portion of the affected area of Sahelian countries. The effects of GGW will be limited to the areas under management. Thus, regarding the adaptation of the Sahelian countries to climate change and the mitigation of its effects, the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel should be a driving example for the extension of the activities to all the degraded or endangered areas of the whole Sahel.
# Adaptive capacity and tree-based livelihood diversification strategies of smallholders in Central Burkina Faso

INS. Djenonin (1) ; H. Djoudi (2) ; M. Zida (1)

(1) Center for International Forestry Research, Forest and Livelihoods Portfolio, West Africa team, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Burkina Faso; (2) Center for International Forestry Research, Forest and livelihoods portfolio, Bogor, Indonesia

Ecosystem-based adaptation strategies are increasingly gaining attention, among researchers and development practitioners, as a diversification option to address climate change. Informed decision on the adequacy of ecosystem-based strategies requires an understanding of the adaptive capacity they confer to households who seek to build resilience toward climate's adverse impacts. This paper analyzes how different trees and forest-based diversification strategies affect household's adaptive capacity in Central Burkina Faso. It uses an integrated approach to select indicators at the household scale, and calculates an aggregate adaptive capacity index (ACI) derived from a combination of both sub-aggregate and sub-composite indexes. Existing ecosystem-based strategies were first identified, and the analyses are done on a sample of 129 representative households who use four different forest and tree-based diversification strategies. Households were interviewed on their assets endowment as well as on the different livelihood outcomes achieved while implementing the strategy. The perceived sensitivity of the strategies to climate risks is also assessed. A cross-comparison of ACI of households under each strategy indicates that while households who engage in eucalyptus plantations benefit a low adaptive capacity index (3.23), those who engage in restored lands and fruit tree plantations have a high adaptive capacity index. The calculated ACI is 4.78 for households who implement restored lands strategy, 4.58 for those using mango fruit plantations strategy, and 4.35 for households who engage in cashew plantations strategy. However, it is important to put on perspective the adaptive capacity index of households using fruit tree plantations, considering the overall situation of environment and biodiversity lost. Restored land shows a better diversity in terms of products harvested, which are available at different times during the year while fruit tree plantations produce a higher economic gain but their role as a safety net in a case of crisis is low and their sensitivity is higher. The integration adaptive capacity analysis to implement ecosystem based interventions could enhance the climate resilience of livelihoods by increasing the adaptive capacity of communities and individuals.

# The Great Green Wall: a potential driver of transformation and increased resilience in Sahelian landscapes

D. Goffner (1) ; A. Guissé (2) ; JL. Peiry (3) ; P. Duboz (1) ; G. Boetsch (4)

(1) CNRS, International Research Unit CNRS 3189 Environment, Health, Societies, Marseille, France; (2) Cheikh Anta Diop University, Plant entry, Dakar, Senegal; (3) Blaise Pascal University, Geolab, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (4) CNRS, International research unit cnrs 3189, environment, health, societies, Dakar, Senegal

The African Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth. Although it is comprised of highly diverse landscapes, the increasing ecological and social vulnerability is clearly the common denominator of the entire situation. Translating into an urgent call for action. The currently situation is characterized by a downward spiral: vulnerability has been caused by a combination of climatic and human factors resulting in land degradation, which in turn further accentuates human vulnerability. In order to create resilience for the growing populations of the Sahel, innovative, multi-scale strategies must be implemented. The adoption of the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGW) in 2007 is a step in the right direction. For the first time, the African continent stands united to confront the socio-ecological challenges of the Sahel and Sahara. Since its political adoption, the main objective of human and ecological well-being has remained unchanged. From its original configuration of

eleven founding member countries across the Sahel, it has gradually begun merging with other ongoing, sustainable development initiatives throughout the African continent, thereby creating even greater potential force. Importantly, it has evolved from its original raison d'être as primarily a reforestation project into a series of multi-sectorial actions that takes into account the diversity of the mosaic landscape it crosses.

The success of the GGW will depend on its capacity to intelligently gather, generate, integrate, and use knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines, taking into account the nature and complexity of socio-ecological systems. How can scientific research in the GGW context nudge the GGW into an appropriate trajectory for transformation of the Sahel? To respond to this demand, the GGW Human Environment Observatory was created by the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in 2009 and groups together international researchers from a wide range of scientific disciplines, all working on a common social ecological system located in the Senegalese Sahel. Research is carried out in close collaboration with natural resource decision makers for the GGW in Senegal (The Senegalese National Green Wall Agency), and in conjunction with local populations. In this presentation, several examples of interdisciplinary research outputs including ecological restoration and monitoring, as well as health and social impacts of the GGW will be presented by observatory researchers. We will provide examples as to how science is already contributing to ecological and human well-being in the region on the ground and aid in the land use management decisions with the aim of enhancing the resilience of local populations by attempting to provide the appropriate suites of ecosystem services in an equitable manner.

# Implementing REDD+ and adaptation to climate change in the Congo Basin: Review of projects, initiatives and opportunities for synergies

A.M. Tiani (1) ; C. Pavageau, (1)

(1) CIFOR, Yaounde, Cameroon

In the face of the climate change, two main types of strategies have emerged. While mitigation aims to reduce the sources or to enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases, adaptation addresses the impacts of climate change on societies and ecosystems. Even if adaptation is gaining importance in the international arena, national policies and projects have difficulties to emerge in developing countries. Moreover, forests and forest communities are rarely taken into consideration in debates and policies on adaptation. In addition, Congo Basin countries have limited experiences on reduced emissions through avoided deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Although the forestry sector presents opportunities for synergy between adaptation and mitigation, very few life-size experiments can confirm it.

We explored the state of progress of projects and initiatives to promote adaptation and REDD+ in the Congo Basin region and on the trade-off between the two strategies. Between 2008 and 2013, 94 national programs and activities related to REDD+ and 11 on adaptation have been identified in six countries of the Congo Basin. Most projects are at an early stage with more emphasize on REDD+ than on adaptation, due to uncertainties about spatiotemporal patterns of risk occurrence, lack of clear adaptation solutions, insufficient political support or lack of national structuring framework as REDD+ does.

Two main tendencies emerged from REDD+ initiatives: 1) local demonstration activities directly aim to reduce carbon emission from deforestation, forest degradation, and sustainable forest management and increase carbon stocks; 2) readiness activities aiming at creating enabling framework for countries to participate in REDD+ deals and develop strategies accordingly. Adaptation to climate change and REDD+ evolves as two parallel and similar processes. Potential for synergies among the two processes exists but are not fully recognized yet.

To be noted is the emergence of hybrid approach, where most of REDD+ and adaptation projects intend to combine the integrated conservation and development
project (ICDP) approach with payments for ecosystem services (PES). This bears the advantage of repackaging the on-going efforts, reducing uncertainties and risks of maladaptation and offering some responses to the fragmentation of finance opportunities. In sum, the hybrid approaches present potentials for synergies between adaptation and mitigation.

However, transformational changes are needed to increase the synergy between adaptation and mitigation in the current climate portfolio. In particular, there is a need for tools, information and knowledge to support decision makers to harmonizing climate policies.

## P-3331-01 POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### Could IFM REDD+ projects incentivize forest concessionaires to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in Central Africa? A lesson from the FORAFAMA project

F. Claeys (1); V. Rossi (2); D. Bastin (3); R. Eba'a-Atyi (4); S. Gourlet-Fleury (1); G. Lescuyer (5); N. Picard (2); D. Jonwa (4)

(1) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical Forest Goods and Ecosystem Services (BSEF), Montpellier, France; (2) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical forest goods and ecosystem services (bsef), Yaoude, Cameroon; (3) Alpical, Douala, Cameroon; (4) Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Yaoude, Cameroon; (5) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical forest goods and ecosystem services (bsef), Bogor, Indonesia

Improved Forest Management (IFM) is an activity eligible to the mechanism of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). In this context, IFM refers to activities that increase carbon stock and managed forest lands by changing forest management practices. As nearly 20 millions of hectares are now managed in the Congo Basin forests, it is a strategy of prime importance in climate policies of Central African states. However, the carbon benefit is generally based on a decrease of felling intensity that means less income shortfalls for the logger. The extent to which carbon storage could compensate losses of timber income is a decisive factor in the feasibility of REDD+ projects. Given the few number of scientific studies on this subject, and the even fewer number of pilot projects that have been implemented, this issue is still highly in debate.

To assess the potentialities for emissions reductions of IFM REDD+ projects, and to evaluate their financial feasibility, we explored a broad range of scenarios for reducing logging intensity in a typical export-oriented forest concession in Central Africa. For each scenario and for several carbon accounting approaches, we calculated timber income shortfalls and carbon benefit to estimate internal rates of return and break-even prices of carbon credits. As part of the project of «Support for the sustainable management of forests in the Congo Basin and the Brazilian AmazonBasin» (FORAFAMA), a partnership with several forest concessionaires has allowed us to incorporate forest, industrial and economic factors. Parameters uncertainties are explicitly taken into account through a Monte-Carlo method.

We predicted that current voluntary markets conditions do not permit the implementation of IFM REDD+ projects in Central African concessions. Notable exceptions to this statement are Logged to Protected Forest (LTPF) projects, that correspond to an extreme case of a complete cessation of logging. In this case, the non-building of road networks results in substantial savings. The feasibility of other IFM REDD+ projects is particularly constrained by the current approach to addressing the risk of non-permanence. As an example, under Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), the maximum number of Voluntary Certified Units (VCU) available to projects including harvesting, cannot exceed the long-term average carbon benefit. In the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an other approach to deal with non-permanence had been proposed with temporary

Certified Emission Reductions (TCER). A TCER expires at the end of the commitment period following its issue. Such an approach, that can allow to value the storage of carbon even on short time periods, is much more flexible and adapted to permanent timber production tropical forests. However, even under this accounting method, IFM REDD+ projects prove to be unattractive for Central African timber companies as their feasibility remains conditioned to a major reduction of logging intensity. Otherwise, projects are severely penalized by transaction costs and low carbon differentials.

Our work suggests that current methodologies of voluntary standards are not well appropriate to include IFM within REDD+. Instead of incentivizing to conciliate timber production and carbon sequestration, IFM REDD+ projects rather encourages forest concessionaires to value either carbon or timber exclusively, hence acceptability and additionality issues. To promote the deployment of a truly climate-smart forest management, the incentive system should focus more on practice changes than only on the result expressed in permanently avoided emissions.

### P-3331-02

### An Economic Impact Assessment of Community-Based Conservation Associations (CBCAs) in the Nzoia River Basin, Kenya: Taking stock of ecosystem services and welfare trends under Climate Change

#### C. Kombat Lambini (1)

(1) Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), Bayreuth Graduate School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences (BayNAT), Bayreuth University, Germany

Community-based conservation associations seek to address the trade-offs in conservation and development objectives through participatory approaches to sustainable ecosystem management. Some empirical research has been carried out in the past two decades to evaluate the impact of community-based conservation associations. The findings on outcomes are mixed and still a subject of intense debate. The few Members of the international scientific literature in developing countries. The issue of nonlinearity comes up with the outcomes of these assessments and management institutions hence further research and methods needed to understand these complex conservation problems in developing countries context, especially in Africa which has few impact studies globally. Past assessments of associations in conservation are faced with numerous limitations: the fewness of the expenditures in implementing community-number of members, social, institutional context and programme attributes. Most of these assessments have several problems: methodological limitations, baseline data access, and selection of indicators of outcomes for evaluation, leakages and timescale measurements. Despite the growing literature in community forestry, there are still lack of empirical local studies that can substantiate and quantify the impact on forest ecosystem services and welfare of community-based conservation association members in the Nzoia Basin in Western Kenya. Our economic impact study seeks to address some of these limitations raised above through the integration of ecosystem services and household livelihood outcomes. Field interviews are undertaken with key stakeholders in two forest ecological conservancies out of ten in Kenya (North Rift Conservancy-Trans-Nzoia Zone and Western Conservancy-Kakamega Zone). Sample of three different community-based conservation associations in different communities are considered for the economic impact assessment based on advice from Kenyan Forest Services and Kenyan Wildlife Services. These associations are: (1) Kipsaina Crane and Wetlands Conservation Group (Saiva Swamp National Park-North Rift), (2) Community Forest Associations(Kiptogot CFA, Kimothon CFA, Malava CFA, Muileshi CFA ) (3) Kakamega Forest Reserve conservation Arm(Kakamega Community Wildlife Association) and (4) the three CBCAs and evaluate which one is doing the best in the supply of ecosystem services in the Nzoia River Basin and
(4) recommended approach to "avoid the tragedy of the commons" in community forestry in the Nzoia Basin under current climate change conditions in Kenya.

P-3331-03

Risks and opportunities of Eucalyptus
planting (Case study in the framework of
the GIZ-German-Madagascan Environmen-
tal program)

L. Prill (1) ; D. Plugge (1)

(1) Institute for World Forestry, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Growing biomass for rural (energy) purposes in highly productive planted forests can contribute to the preservation of natural forests, the mitigation of climate change and the rehabilitation of degraded land and biodiversity - provided that they are appropriately planned and managed. Since 1996 in North-Madagascar ~7.000ha of former degraded savannah have been afforested with Eucalyptus within the "German Madagascan environmental program" of the "Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit" (GIZ) GmbH to supply the Diana Region with sustainable wood energy (charcoal). The GIZ- community-based afforestation approach aims to develop a sustainable charcoal value chain in Madagascar.

Despite the manifold opportunities, cultivating Eucalyptus has often been associated with environmental and ecological impacts that negatively affect environmental sustainability of afforestation projects. Little research in this context was done in Madagascar. Based on a case study the present study aims to analyse ecological risks and opportunities of planting Eucalyptus in projects to promote renewable energy resources in rural areas. Floristic diversity and soil properties of 21 different- aged and -managed Eucalyptus camaldulensis (EC) plantations and adjacent savannah sites around three different villages in the Diana Region were analysed and compared. Research on biodiversity was based on the parameters species richness (number of species, "spR"), plant frequency (plants/hectare), Shannon Diversity (H') and the species composition of predominating plants of woody and ground cover (GV) species. Soil samples of plantation and savannah sites were analysed for their pH value and carbon to nitrogen ratio. Special regard was given to spatial, temporal and management intervention effects. This was achieved by sampling EC-stands with different stand characteristics (e.g. stand age) and through the design of the chosen transect-sample unit.

Soil properties did not vary significantly between savannah and plantation sites although stand volume per hectare and partly stand age negatively affected both soil properties.

In all villages absolute recorded number of woody species was higher in the savannahs than in the plantations whereas GV-species richness was relatively even. Mean woody spR and H' were further elevated in the savannah- units while mean plant frequency was partly higher in the plantation-units. Differences were not significant. Species composition was similar between savannah and EC-stands. Stand density and/or -volume positively affected diversity while plant frequency decreased with higher stand density in some cases. No spatial and temporal effects could further be observed in the study region. This low response is likely due to human interventions and cattle grazing that reduced plant regeneration. Differences in terms of diversity conditions were, however, apparent between the investigated villages. Variations in the distance to remnants of natural forests and site conditions (e.g. soil of plantations are likely to play a key role in this context.

Plantations established on degraded land in North-
Madagascar indirectly preserve natural forests and its
biodiversity, thereby help to mitigate climate change
and increase the value of degraded land. Results indicate

that impacts of EC-stands on biodiversity and soils are small and that the plantations are further able to provide habitat for many (including the predominant) species of the savannah. Nevertheless, a trend towards a reduced diversity in the plantation was observed. In order to reduce the risk of diversity loss further research should focus on the potential of mixed-species stands in the project region including native species with a high relevance for the local population. In this context, also the role of remnants of natural forests and seed dispersal methods should be assessed.

Recent developments have shown that programs that avoid deforestation by supplying local needs such as the presented approach of the GIZ will gain further importance in the future. Considering the expanding land area covered with eucalypts, the objective of enhancing biodiversity and other (ecosystem) services should therefore be incorporated in the land-use planning of programs to promote renewable energy resources in rural areas.

P-3331-04

Forest Ecosystem as Strategies to Face
Climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Man-
grove for Carbon Sequestration in Benin
(West Africa)

SH. Totin Vodounon (1); B. Bamisso (1); E. Amoussou (2); M. Boko (3); A. Akoegninou (4)

(1) University of Parakou, Geography, Parakou, Benin; (2)

University of Parakou, Geography, Parakou, Benin; (3)

University of Abomey-Calavi, Geography, Abomey-Calavi,

Benin; (4) University of Abomey-Calavi, Botanic, Abomey-
Calavi, Benin

The increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in atmosphere and global warming are becoming a global challenge especially in Africa where adaptation capacity is low. Natural ecosystems as the green forests are known to contribute in controlling of the greenhouse gas through carbon sequestration. Across the world, mangrove forest interested many studies which reveal the potential role of this ecosystem on climate change strategies. This study aims to strength how to use the mangrove ecosystem to face climate change through its capacity of carbon sequestration in Benin.

The study is based on existing literature, mangrove cover estimation from 1980 to 2040 in Benin, assessment of mangrove ecosystem capacity to sequester carbon in Benin based on critical, intermediate and optimist scenarios. On the over hand, climate data such as temperature over the period 1961 to 2014 are analysed to correlate its trend in Benin to the global warming.

In Benin projections show an increase in air temperatures in all regions of Benin around 2100, with the largest increase in temperature, compared to the reference period 1971-2000, of around 3.27°C. In the same time, total greenhouse gas increased from 4797.74 Gg CO2-e to 6251.03 Gg CO2-e representing a growth of 30.29 % over the period 1995-2000. With regard to the principle of the Clean Development Mechanism and to adapt efficiently to this climate change in Benin, mangrove ecosystem can be useful. So carbon sequestration by mangrove in Benin is approximately estimated average of 24 169 t/yr in 2010 and 3580 t/yr in the critical scenario, 17 004 t/yr in the intermediate scenario and 35 423 t/yr in the optimism scenario at the horizon 2040.

Promote mangrove ecosystem protection and development will help increase carbon sequestration in West Africa. So the great need is to enhance local community's capacity on climate change adaptation using mangrove forest to control CO2 emissions based on reforestation, reinforcement of traditional law used for natural resources protection, implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in Sub-Saharan Africa.
# 3332 - Asia on the Frontlines: Projected Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3332-01

#### Projected Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Asian Highlands

**R. Zomer (1)**

(1) World Agroforestry Center, Center for Mountain Ecosystems Studies, Kunming, Yunnan, China

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the mountains of Asia, notably the Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Tien Shan, and the Tibetan Plateau, is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification and a simple in-situ water balance model has been used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology and spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata, across the Asian highlands. Projected climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, including agricultural and pastoral systems, were modeled based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMPS) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the region by the year 2050, across all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones, decreases in area of the highest elevation biomes and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the shifting or disappearance of specific sets of bioclimatic conditions, threats to agricultural crop species, cropping systems, and genetic resources, the effectiveness of protected areas, and the rapid onset of potentially high levels of biotic perturbation by 2050, with a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies across the region. The importance of improved understanding of the direction and magnitude of climatic change for strategic pand, adaptation, and disaster response, is illustrated with case studies of landscape analyses and participatory community based approaches from Nepal, Pakistan, and southwest China.

### K-3332-02

#### Response to Climatic Hazard: Vulnerability Measurement of the Coastal People Matters

**M. Hossain (1)**

(1) Griffith University, International Business and Asian Studies, Nathan, QLD, Australia

In recent years, climatic hazards – extreme weather conditions and rising sea-level – have impacted seriously on economies and daily life in many coastal regions. The present study measures the vulnerability of frontline coastal regions in order to find path-ways for speedy recovery from the socio-economic devastation associated with climatic disasters and to recommend potential protection measures for coastal people. The study focuses on two vulnerable regions of the Bay of Bengal delta. The outcome of this research will help understand the responses required after a climatic disaster. Governments, NGOs and international communities including Asian vulnerable regions need micro level studies, such as this, on which to develop effective sustainable development policies. The study uses survey data to investigate vulnerability flowing a recent climatic hazard (cyclone) that have affected Bay of Bengal delta in 2009. More specifically the aims are: 1. to investigate the impacts on socio-economic vulnerability due to climatic hazards in selected regions; 2. to find path-ways for speedy recovery from the socio-economic devastation; and, 3. to recommend protection measures for the coastal people frequently hit by global warming induced climatic hazards.

It is not only a lack of knowledge on the risks from climatic hazards in developing Asia, in other OECD nations policy

makers suffer from this knowledge gap. Being a closest neighbour of Asia, it is needed to know how much, for example, Australia spends on climate response aid other than the immediate disaster aid to the victims? Does Australia take climate refugees? Immediate relief while is important, it is also needed to know how were the affected regions cope from a natural calamity? There is, therefore, a serious need for showing results from small-scale micro studies that can develop a theoretical, methodological and empirical foundation to inform climate change adaptation/ recovery options for households, governments and communities in front line regions.

The present research has been focused on assessing local level socioeconomic vulnerability of communities living in vulnerable locations of Asia. Vulnerability to climate disasters is a complex concept which has major socioeconomic and political implications. Public policies, including adaptation strategies, disaster risk reduction (DRR), and migration policies have the potential to play a determining role in addressing vulnerability. This paper is based on two villages surveyed from two sides of the Sundarbans on the Bay of Bengal delta and estimates the vulnerability of the coastal people from a category 5 Cyclone called 'Aila' hit in 2009. The villages are located in Bangladesh and Indian (West Bengal) territories. A census of the entire households of the two villages has been carried out in 2011 and 2012. Vulnerability due to natural hazard has been investigated based on econometric models. The vulnerability estimates at local level is essential with a view to develop relevant adaptation policies for the Sundarbans region.

### O-3332-01

#### Climatic Change and Indian Agriculture – A Case Study of West Bengal

**R. Chakrabarty (1); S. Chakrabarty (1); CS. Lahirı (1)**

(1) University of Calcutta, Business Management, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

The recent IPCC report (IPCC 2007) and a few other global studies indicate a probability of 10 to 40% loss in crop production in India with increase in temperature by 2080 – 2100. A few Indian studies on this theme generally confirm an agricultural decline with climate change. Recent studies done at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute indicate the possibility of a loss of 4 to 5 million tons in wheat production in future with every 10C rise in temperature.

In this paper we have focused on the impacts of climatic change on agriculture faced by West Bengal. West Bengal is a state of India, which extends from Himalayas in the north and Bay of Bengal in the south. In 1981–82, West Bengal was amongst the lowest in the country with its per capita net agricultural product being 18 per cent lower than the national average. By 1994–95, it was above the national average by about 10 per cent.

Like all natural system, agriculture is linked to climate and there is some observed and projected climatic change in West Bengal also. During 1969–2005, a net warming trend has been established in the annual average temperature.

This paper studies whether the relationship between the long term climatic Production of India and West Bengal is trend in nature. This has been done by using Unit Root technique. In also studies the relationship between temperature and agricultural production. The paper then derives the relation between the GDP and Indian Agriculture Production on one hand and the SDP and West Bengal Agriculture Production on the other hand. This has been compared by using the Co-integration equations.

An in-depth survey has been conducted in six districts of West Bengal and the production of staple crops, rice and potato have been considered. We have carried out mean tests to compare amongst the districts and also with a north Indian state. On the basis of the data long term projection has been made. Finally, the paper hints at considerable policy implications towards adaptation to climate change in the state.
## Mountains and the Anthropocene

J. Xu (1)

(1) Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, France

Mountains change due to volcanic activity or rising tectonic plates; human activity, too, has changed mountains since the beginning of days. The extent and pace of anthropogenic changes to the mountain's climate, cryosphere and biosphere are now so great that ecosystems and societies become unbounded, while the changes themselves become harder to predict and harder to live with.

In the mountains, geography promotes cultural diversity in languages, belief systems, architecture, settlement patterns, and livelihood practices. Mountains are the cradles of many civilizations. People have adapted in ways that demonstrate their intimate relationship with the environment and knowledge about not only plants, wildlife, vegetation, and the economy, but also the risks and natural hazards such as earthquake, landslides, droughts and flash floods.

The seeds of "good Anthropocene" - positive visions of futures that are socially and ecologically desirable, just, and sustainable - can be observed in many cultural communities in mountainous regions. We use both practical approaches and local visualization to solicit, explore and develop a suite of alternative pathways for conservation and sustainable development in southwest China's mountain regions.

## Farmer's perceptions of and adaptations to changing climate in the Melamchi River Valley of Nepal

D. Schmidt-Vogt (1) ; S. Nani Maya (1)

(1) Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, China

Climate change is a global challenge that has a particularly strong effect on developing countries such as Nepal, where adaptive capacity is low and where agriculture, which is highly dependent on climatic factors, is the main source of total income and food consumption at household level. Among the biggest challenges to farming communities in future will be adaptation to climate change. As climate impacts are often locally specific, it is essential that large-scale initiatives to support farmers consider local priorities and integrate lessons from local adaptation efforts. But there is very limited knowledge and information available on how specific climate hazards impact livelihoods, and how farmer communities in the mountains of Nepal are responding to climate change. In addition most of the climate change projections using empirical models are unable to capture the local level specification of climate change. Therefore, knowledge of farmers' perceptions of climate change and of their adaptation measure is important to enhance policies addressing the threat of climate change to farmers.

This case study examined farmers' perceptions of and adaptations to changing climate in the Melamchi River Valley of Nepal. We surveyed 365 farmer households and held six focus group discussions using a Community-based Risk Screening Tool - Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRISTAL) to understand local perceptions of and current adaptation practices to climate changes. Climate trends in the study area were analyzed for the period 1979-2009. Results show that while mean annual temperatures had risen by 0.18° and 0.9° per decade during the 1980s and 1990s, respectively, the rise in temperature had accelerated to 1.56° C per decade after 2000. The frequency of drought had also increased measurably after 2003. With this change in climatic factors farmers observed increases in crop pests, hailstorms, landslides, floods, as well as thunderstorms and erratic precipitation as climate-related hazards affecting agriculture. Changing farming practices, selling livestock and livestock products, engaging in daily wage labor and seasonal migration were common practices in response to climate and other changes. Diversification of agriculture, improvement of current agroforestry practices, and investment in water-based income-generating opportunities were identified as means of adapting to climate changes.

## Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Legal and Policy Responses

S. Alam (1)

(1) Macquarie University, Law, NSW, Sydney, Australia

The coastal area of Bangladesh comprises the second largest delta of the world. This coastal area comprises distinctive development opportunities which can be instrumental in reducing poverty and contributing significantly to the development of Bangladesh. Over the past few decades, however, the region has come under threat from climate change, and the effects are now starting to be felt. Moreover, unplanned and disorganized coastal adaptation programmes and the absence of climate change considerations in the coastal planning are deteriorating the whole scenario. In response to the challenges posed by the effects of climate change, Bangladesh has adopted several plans and policies including the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009, the National Adaptation Programme of Action 2005 and the Country Framework to Mainstream Climate Risk Management and Adaptation 2006. However, no laws and policies have been developed to date targeting specifically the development of coastal areas in the context of climate change. Moreover, the people living in coastal areas of Bangladesh are not adequately consulted and integrated both in policy making and implementation of disaster risk management plans and adaptation strategies. Bangladesh can enhance its coastal management by strategically integrating climate change adaptation, disaster risk management and development into its laws and policies.

In this context, this paper provides an assessment of impacts of climate change in the coastal zones of Bangladesh. It also examines the existing adaptation strategies and policies of the government. With a critical analysis of the provisions for adaptation strategies in international climate change regime, it outlines the necessity for new adaptation strategies and policies in the context of the daunting challenges posed by climate change to the prospects of development in Bangladesh. This paper emphasises the importance of an integrated approach combining climate change management and climate change adaptation in policy making in order to ensure climate resilient and climate compatible development in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. It further advocates for developing community-based adaptation arguing that the empowerment of coastal communities who are mostly at risk is essential so that they themselves can identify and prioritize their risks, plan for mitigation and treat their risk factors. Ultimately communities should have direct access to and control over the public resources allocated for them and establish their rights to reduce their risks, be it social, cultural or political, and policy development process.

## 3332-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

## Adaptation Measures in Dryland Ecosystem: Management of Scarce Water Resources for Rehabilitation of Degraded Lands in Arid and Semi-arid Region of Southern Pakistan

S.I. Khan (1)

(1) Pakistan Forest Institute, Range Management, Islamabad, Pakistan

Drylands in southern Pakistan are home to communities living in poverty and depending on livestock rearing for their livelihood. The subsistence agriculture is losing its importance under the effects of climate change i.e. uncertain rainfall and very low productivity. Due to increasing population of livestock, the pressure on silv pastures is increasing resulting in degradation of natural resources and loss of soil fertility, a fact that adversely affects the livelihood of communities. The Farm Forestry Support Project (FFPSP) of the Intercooperation (IC) and Swiss Agency for Development & Cooperation (SDC), initiated
rehabilitation work in 2003 in extreme dry region of Karak using the silvo-pastoral system with hillside ditches and sand dune stabilization techniques. The objective was to recover vegetation and increase productivity of the area with minimum cost and hence support livelihoods. The activity was carried out with participation of civil society organizations and farmers' associations.

The results recorded in 2008 showed a profuse plant growth in terms of trees, shrubs and grasses with a potential to provide timber, fuel wood and fodder for livestock. Maximum harvesting of rainwater and conservation of moisture also resulted in growth of natural grasses and shrubs. Within a short period of 5 years, plant growth in height and diameter of 6 meters and 20 centimeters respectively was recorded. The average vegetation cover of 45% and increase in soil organic matter and nitrogen content was also recorded. All this happened with a minimum cost of US$ 82 per hectare. The rejuvenation of wells in few cases was an additional positive affect of the activity. On the other hand, an annual income of US$ 735 per hectare from Saccharum spontaneum planted in sand dunes was a real benefit to farmers against the other land-uses in dry sand dunes.

P-3332-02

Mitigation & Adaptation experiences of farmers to drought in Semi-arid region of India

B. Nagaraja (1) ; B. Krishnakanth, (2)

(1) Bangalore University, Environmental Sciences, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; (2) Bangalore university, Environmental sciences, Bangalore, India

Climate change is predicted to have severe consequences on agriculture and the rural poor in South Asia and Africa. Given that approximately three-fifths of the cultivated area in South Asia is rain-fed, the onset, duration, spatial extent, and total precipitation of the monsoon are critical factors in determining the livelihoods of large majority of people in rural areas. The arid regions of India cover an area of 317,090 km² and is exclusively depend on rain-fed crops even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of a rainfall should cause a consternation to large section of farming community. Karnataka state in south India ranks second, next only to Rajstahan in India, in terms of total geographical area prone to drought. Among its 30 districts, 18 are drought prone. During 2001-02 and 2002-03 the state faced consecutive droughts; this severally affected the farmer's livelihood. The present study has been visualized to assess the vulnerability and adaptability experiences of poor farmers to repeated droughts in semi-arid regions of Karnataka.

The drought affected regions of Karnataka recorded lower crop yields and consequent increased povertilevels in the region. The repeated droughts have lead to over exploitation of ground water besides increased in fire incidences in arid and semi-arid regions. The two districts of Karnataka (Raichur and Koppal) each belonging to severely affected categories and representing arid climatic condition. The drought affected regions of Karnataka recorded lower crop yields and consequent increased poverty levels in the region. The repeated droughts have lead to over exploitation of ground water besides increased in fire incidences in semi-arid regions. The annual income of the households reduced to half in drought years. The reduction was more in case of the crops followed by labour. In this regard Karnataka state established disaster management authority to undertake mitigation and adoption measures in the region.

The case studies in semi-arid region of Karnataka offer a valuable complement to the macro profile by revealing insights on the determinants of vulnerability at the individual or community levels. Numerous physical and socio-economic factors come into play in enhancing or decreasing the current capacity of farmers to cope with adverse changes. Prominent among the physical factors are cropping patterns, crop diversification, and shifts to drought/salt-resistant varieties. The most important socio-economic factors include ownership of assets (like land, cattle, pump-sets, and agricultural implements), access to services (like banking, health, and education), and infrastructural support (like irrigation, markets, and transport/communication networks). From the last few decades, a growing incidence of seasonal migration is occurring in northern part of Karnataka due to the lack of

livelihoods and fodder availability.

The climate change adaptation (CCA) policy approach has also been fragmented, with climate change strategies and plans not strongly linked with existing agricultural policies in the region. The present study documented traditional knowledge of the farmers on climate change mitigation and adaptation, which will help to evolve a policy and shape future research on climate resilient agriculture in semi-arid region of South India. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture speaks of attaining "ecologically Sustainable Agricultural Growth through progressive Adaptation and Mitigation. While the noises are sound, the mission still emphasizes the role of bio-technology. The Policy concern is that Growth is linked to extracting a monetary value out of the system, whereas the principle of sustainable practices, means that the outputs, inputs into the system, which is the principle of ecological farming. Whereas bio-technology options tends to be patented means of extracting rents out of discovery. The complex and multidimensional nature of drought in India requires a long term, well organized and coordinated research plan and action involving all the stakeholders. The present study aims to highlight the ongoing efforts of farmers groups, government and Non-government organization in evolving ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptations strategies for the region.

P-3332-03

Measuring Vulnerability of a region in Indonesia

Y. Tjoe (1)

(1) Griffith University, International Business and Asian Studies, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

For many rural households in Indonesia, yields from subsistence production are the main source of food to maintain their health and livelihoods. The livelihoods of households in dryland West Timor are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on rainwater for their subsistence production. Due to the subsequent poor rainfall and low crop yield, some of the households have begun to adapt to broader modern employment and modified their income sources with males taking up external cash-employment; such as temporary labour in the construction or plantation fields at local cities or overseas. Is this pathway of income adaptation sustainable, compared to the subsistence-based corn farming and traditional forms of livelihood?

This paper investigates factors that contribute to the livelihood vulnerability of the subsistence households to drought. The five major factors include EDU (Education), SCP (Social-Cultural Participation), FS (Food Store), IA (Income through management of agricultural production) and ACC (Access). Primary data are collected through a household survey conducted in three villages of West Timor (total sample 627). Data gathered are then used to produce a vulnerability index, using the following equation:

$$LVI_v=WEDU EDUv + WSCP SCPv + WFS FSv + WIA IAv + WACC ACCv$$

$$WEDU + WSCP + WFS + WIA + WACC$$

$$LVIv=\text{Livelivship Vulnerability Index for village v}$$

$$WMi=\text{weight of each major components (e.g. WEDU is the weight of Education)}$$

$$Mci = \text{average value of major component (e.g. EDUv is the average value of Education)}$$

The Probit analysis is then performed to investigate the relationship between "perceptions of households about causes of drought" and "their readiness to better equip themselves for the future drought or other disasters".

Where $Cause_{Li}$ is type of cause: 'It has been like this all the time' = 1; otherwise = 0

$Cause_{2i}$ is type of cause: 'I don't know why' = 1; otherwise = 0

$Cause_{3i}$ is type of cause: 'God's Plan' = 1; otherwise = 0

$Cause_{4i}$ is type of cause: 'Manmade' = 1; otherwise = 0
Statistical reliability and validity, and factor analysis are conducted using SPSS 22.

The results show that ACC (access to water, local market and health centre), SCP (social and cultural activities), and IA (income through management of agricultural production) are all significantly correlated with a household's vulnerability to drought. Households are less vulnerable when they have better access, agricultural incomes, and when they and their children are relatively inversed in local agricultural and ritual activities. A poorer access to market and schools may also contribute to increasing household's vulnerability as the youth have to leave the village and stay at urban area for employment or education purposes. Combining all five factors, the overall vulnerability index for individual village shows that the further the village is to urban area (Kupang or Soe) the more vulnerability it is. The furthest village has the highest score (0.503), while the closest village scores 0.234.

Furthermore, the results of Probit analysis show that the tendency to take precautionary measures to anticipate drought and other disasters is related to the perception about the cause of disasters. Households tend to have no planned alternatives such as saving money or preparing water storage in the house when they believe that Gold's plan is manmade are the cause of drought and other disasters.

The paper concludes that the temporary participation in broader modern employment may be an alternative for the households to cope with short-term impacts of drought and low crop yield. However, the social-cultural participation, which maintains local ritual and belief provides long-term sustainable pathway for dryland ecosystem as it helps to regenerate local knowledge system and conserve the use of natural resources. Future adaption should aim to increase household awareness of the importance of proactive saving (water and money), and

to improve infrastructures that help sustain both existing economic and social-cultural activities.

## P-3332-04

# Local practices of reducing vulnerability, and securing livelihoods in the age of climate change: Lesson learned from the analysis of community adaption plans and practices in Nepal

DR. Uprety (1)

(1) Multi Stakeholder Forestry Programme (MSFP), Climate change and Forestry, Kathmandu, Nepal

About 25% of the total populations in Nepal live under the poverty line (less than 1.25USD/day) and the country is ranked one of the 5th climate vulnerable countries around the world. Flash floods and landslides, loss of biodiversity, decline in agricultural productivity, increase of invasive species and depletion of fresh water resources are some major vulnerability resulted from the climate change and pushing the lives and livelihoods of over 1.9 million households at risk. Responding to these climates induced adversities, the local communities have started making their adaptation plans (more than 1500) in partnership with growing development institutions at local level. The paper is based on the studies of more than 1000 local adaptation plans, field observation and interaction with more than 500 communities in between 2011 to 2015. The paper analyses of the major vulnerabilities identified in different adaptation plans, local practices of responding these vulnerabilities, tradeoff between growing vulnerabilities, and securing livelihoods challenges through the analysis of the 1000 community adaptation plans in Nepal.

# 3333 - China's climate policies and low-carbon innovation

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3333-01

#### China's emissions trading schemes

X. Zhang (1)

(1) Tsinghua University, Executive director, institute of energy, environment and economy, Beijing, China

China's government has established seven pilot emissions trading systems. Pilots differ in the extent of sectoral coverage, the size threshold for qualifying installations, and other design features that reflect diverse settings and priorities. We identify issues that have emerged in the design process and the operation of the pilot trading schemes, and outline important next steps for the development of a national emissions trading schemes.

### K-3333-02

#### The Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China

F. Teng (1)

(1) Tsinghua University, Institute of energy, environment and economy, Beijing, China

China needs to reduce its carbon emissions if global climate change mitigation is to succeed. Conventional economic analysis views cutting emissions as a cost, creating a collective action problem. However, decarbonization can improve productivity and provide co-benefits that accord with multiple national policy objectives. Investment in greater energy productivity and economic restructuring away from heavy industries can bring productivity gains, and decarbonization of energy supply has important co-benefits for air pollution and energy security. To properly identify the true costs and benefits of climate change action requires new thinking in economic analysis. This presentation draws on recent academic papers as well as research contributions to the New Climate Economy report and the global Deep Decarbonization Pathways project.

### K-3333-03

#### Challenges and opportunities for renewable energy development in China

S. Li (1)

(1) Alexander von Humboldt Fellow, Berlin, Germany

China's rapid renewable energy deployment is increasingly well known. The country has set out ambitious targets for wind and solar and is well on its way to deliver them. However, this robust development should not be taken for granted over the next few years. As more renewable energy enters into China's power system, energy integration is emerging as the biggest headache faced by the industry. Already over the past few years, while China was busy adding new installations, its existing renewable power plants were curtailed severely. The root cause is China's electricity market design which favors strongly baseload capacity and gives little incentive to clean but fluctuating generation sources. The degree to which China could further reform its aging power market will therefore largely determine whether the country can continue to unleash its immense renewable energy potential.

### O-3333-01

#### Lessons from climate change and energy policy in Western countries

F. Jotzo (1) ; A. Loeschel (2) ; X. Labandeira (3)

(1) Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Canberra, Australia; (2) University of munster, Center of applied economic research munster (cawm), Münster, Germany; (3) European University Institute, And university of vigo, spain, Florence, Italy

China is planning a national emissions trading scheme and to expand and reform other policy approaches to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Valuable lessons have been learned in Western countries about the design of emissions trading schemes, as well as other policy approaches such as feed-in tariffs for renewable energy and mechanisms to support energy efficiency. Some of the lessons are universal, allowing China to avoid costly mistakes made in
Europe and elsewhere. Others are specific to the context, and effective climate policy instruments for China may look quite different from what works in market economies. In this session we point out key lessons for China from Europe, the United States and Australia. We draw on our own research bridging Europe/Australia and China, and on a recent special issue of Energy Policy journal on emissions trading in China, edited by Loeschel and Jotzo.

### O-3333-02

#### Low-carbon innovation in China: prospects, politics and practices

S. Geall (1); A. Ely (2)

(1) University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, Brighton, United Kingdom; (2) STEPS Centre, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex, United Kingdom

This paper explores innovation in China and its potential to contribute to global transitions to low-carbon patterns of development. Building on earlier studies bringing alternative forms of low(er)-technology, 'below-the-radar', 'disruptive' and social aspects into innovation, and drawing on empirical research on electric mobility, solar-generated energy and food systems in China, the paper also pays particular attention to issues of changing power relations and social practices. Taken together, this shift in perspective allows neglected questions in low-carbon innovation to be introduced and points to both opportunities and challenges to low-carbon system transition that are overlooked by an orthodox focus on technological innovations alone.

### O-3333-03

#### Intersections of China's Energy Technology Innovation, S&T Policies and Ongoing Reform

J. Fan (1)

(1) International Energy Agency, Paris, France

China's energy technology innovation, with a strong focus on clean energy technologies, is central to a strategy that faces head-on the dual challenge of satisfying energy demands while safeguarding the environment as part of China's self-proclaimed "Energy Revolution". Combining with the global concern on addressing climate change, China's policies and actions in energy field have been focused on industrial transformation, energy system optimisation, energy efficiency promotion and the environment innovation. Recent energy technology innovation, S&T policies and reforms seek to capture opportunities for economic advantage from the transition to a cleaner, more sustainable and increasingly market-oriented system.

China has demonstrated some progress in its low-carbon and energy sector development. The remarkable progress could be tracked in the development of its Strategic Emerging Industries (SEIs), encouraged by the convergence of energy and S&T policies.

State R&D fund acts as one of the most important financing channels for energy technology innovation. China's funding for research and technology (R&D) as a proportion of GDP (R&D intensity) is increasing, but unprecedented co-ordination among government and institutional groups will be needed to sustain innovation over the long term. Existing gaps create opportunities for institutional reform to promote innovation. A new round of S&T reform is being proceeded in China in aims of offering greater information disclosure and transparency and promoting the efficiency of resource allocation.

The commercialization of technology is another key issue requiring efforts to enhance China's innovation competitiveness. Enforcing IP governance and encouraging the development of public-private partnerships (PPPs) to support innovative approaches to new market have been emphasized by the government.

Monitoring and evaluating innovation measures against energy sector and environmental benefits can help to improve policy implementation over time and lead to more effective innovation systems designed to meet the main public objectives. The effects of China's ongoing reform in the field of energy and S&T are worth a further observation.

### O-3333-04

#### The transportation sector as a lever for reducing long-term Chinese mitigation costs

M. Hamdi-Cherif (1)

(1) CIRED, Nogent-Sur-Marne, France

** Rationale and Objective: Chinese economic development goes hand in hand with (i) a growth of the production that is accompanied with an increase of the freight transport, and (ii) an enriched population and fast-growing urbanization that increases the sharing of freight transport (notably an increase of the motorization rate). Given the high reliance of transport on oil products, its increasing energy demand and CO2 emissions, the transportation sector is a crucial sector for China, particularly regarding energy security and climate change issues. In its attempts to have a sustainable development, the transportation sector is indeed particularly challenging for China. To avoid this, the Chinese need to develop carbon-intensive pathways, especially given the high coal availability and the important life span of infrastructures, China has to redouble its efforts with voluntary schemes promoting mobility growth control.

This paper investigates the role of passenger and freight transportation activities in the transition to a low carbon Chinese society. A particular attention is given to specific measures designed to control the growth of mobility. It is an attempt to quantify the impact of urban voluntary policies on Chinese mitigation costs.

** Modeling approach and Methodology: This article revisits the role of the transportation sector in low-carbon pathways by using the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) model IMACLIM-R. It is a hybrid multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, which embarks a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation. The standard representation of transport technologies is supplemented by an explicit representation of the "behavioral" determinants of mobility. The model relies on hybrid matrices ensuring consistency between money flows and physical quantities and allows an explicit representation of the interplay between transportation, energy and growth patterns. It accounts for the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements on mobility, endogenous mode choices in relation with infrastructure availability, the impact of investments in infrastructure capacity on the amount of travel, and the constraints imposed on mobility needs by firms' and households' location.

Moreover, IMACLIM-R represents the second best nature of economic interactions and the inertias on technical systems that limit the flexibility of adjustments, a crucial dimension for emerging economies when envisaging large structural change over the course of the century.

Complementarily to carbon pricing to reach a stringent climate objective (3.4W/m2 in 2100), we consider actions to control the "behavioral" determinants of transportation in the course of the low-carbon transition, and assess their effects on the Chinese economy. More specifically, we consider (i) urban reorganization lowering the constrained mobility (i.e. mobility for commuting and shopping), (ii) reallocation of investments in favor of public modes at constant total amount for transportation infrastructure and (iii) adjustments of the logistics organization to decrease the transport intensity of production/distribution processes.

** Results: This analysis demonstrates the risk of high losses if using carbon price as the sole instrument of mitigation. Transport proves to be the sector for which carbon emissions are the more difficult to reduce. It thus represents a dominant share of remaining emissions in the long-term when ambitious mitigation objectives are set. Because of its weak reactivity to price increases, very high levels of carbon prices are needed in the second half of the century to reach low mitigation targets. We find indeed that they can reach 1400s/tCO2 by the end of the century.

But we find that controlling mobility growth allows limiting these effects by offering mitigation potentials independent of carbon prices. The considered measures allow significant reductions of carbon price levels (on average 25% lower over 2050-2100) and hence help limiting the macroeconomic costs of the mitigation policies (e.g. long-term mitigation costs are reduced by 5 points in 2050 and
**Conclusion:** This study highlights the role of transport in the mitigation process. Given a climate target, the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift

towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity prove to modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and to significantly reduce the mitigation macro-economic costs relatively to "carbon price only" policy.

# 3335 - Climate Change Mitigation in Latin America

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3335-01

#### Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

**B. Van Der Zwaan (1)**

(1) ECN / University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

In this paper we investigate energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios we analyse what technologies in the energy sector, and particularly electricity generation, could best be used until 2050 to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison analysis and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from not only different models but also different results of models (that is, bottom-up versus top-down, and general equilibrium versus partial equilibrium models). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they are likely to play a large role in energy supply in all the scenarios we inspect, especially in the climate policy scenarios since some use of biomass can be combined with CCS. We find that hydropower, which today already contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in the region, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, on average by 50% but perhaps as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that renewables such as wind and solar power typically expand at double-digit growth rates, but the robustness of our findings differs substantially between these two options: the climate policies represented in our models raise power wind in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. For CCS we also observe a large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential given the challenges this CO2 abatement technology currently faces. The extent to which different mitigation options can be used in practice varies a lot between countries within Latin America, depending on factors such as resource potentials, economic performance, environmental impacts, and availability of technical expertise. We provide concise assessments of possible deployment opportunities for some low-carbon energy options, mostly for the region at large but with some country-level detail in specific cases. A similar climate scenario study of technology diffusion in Latin America has not yet been made, so we contribute a new piece of work to the existing literature. This study possesses particular relevance for the ongoing climate negotiations leading up to COP-21 in Paris, as was demonstrated by the attention we received by the presentation of this work during COP-20 in Lima in December 2014. Given the theme of this paper, our work, if accepted, could be presented in session.

### K-3335-02

#### Climate Change Mitigation in Latin America

**T. Kober (1); B. Van Der Zwaan (2)**

(1) Energy research Centre on the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (2) University of Amsterdam, Faculty of science, Amsterdam, Netherlands

In this keynote speech we present an overview of today's structure of the energy sector of Latin America and provide a long-term outlook of possible future developments

associated to different levels of climate change mitigation ambition in the region. This conference contribution largely builds on the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project (see www.CLIMACAP.org) and highlights its main outcomes. Key findings of the project have already been presented at COP 20 in Lima, and the main results scoring on selected regional and topic 'deep-dives' is forthcoming in a dedicated special issue in Energy Economics expected in spring 2015. Almost 20 research teams are involved in this project delivering new energy and climate policy analysis, which is derived from a broad application of model-based assessment tools.

Before highlighting climate change mitigation in Latin America, we discuss the baseline projections for the set of models participating in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix towards fossil fuels. For the future most models assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. We observe minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.

The climate policy scenarios perform around three main clusters of policy measures: carbon taxes, greenhouse gas emission caps applied to Latin American countries and a globally harmonized scheme for cap and trade of emission certificates to attain different levels of temperature stabilization. Regarding the latter, we explicitly investigate pathways reach a stabilization of the mean temperature increase at 2°C compared to pre-industrial level. We find that an additional emission reduction of roughly 50% across Latin America is consistent with a 2°C goal at lowest cost. However, a range of other mitigation levels will also be consistent with meeting this goal. Our study confirms the results of previous research that the variation in mitigation costs across models may vary as much as an order of magnitude. For Latin America as a whole, currently discussed country level policies lower 2030 emissions to a level that are not inconsistent with a 3°C long-term target, but may be inconsistent with a 2°C target. Besides greenhouse gas emission reduction potential related to energy conversion, avoidance of land use and land use change emissions will play a pivotal role, particularly for Colombia and Brazil. These emissions may be alternatively affected by efforts to store more carbon in land and those aimed at producing more bioenergy for low-carbon energy

One of the major economies in Latin America is Brazil for which our results show an increase over time in emissions in baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While carbon taxes up to 32 US$/tCO2e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO2e in 2020 to 162 US$/tCO2e in 2050) induce average emissions reductions around 60% when compared to baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly based on lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally fall within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.
# The macroeconomic impact of climate mitigation action in Latin America: a model comparison

## P. Summerton (1)

(1) Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, United Kingdom

In this paper we investigate economic impacts under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax scenarios we analyse the impact that climate change mitigation policy might have on income, employment and investment in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison analysis and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from not only different models but also different types of modelling approach (that is, a hybrid modelling approach that links an energy system model, TIAM-ECN, with a macro-simulation modelling, E3ME, compared to the mainstream general equilibrium modelling approach).

The paper presents the first detailed multi-model comparison of the macroeconomic consequences of carbon pricing action in Latin America. In the short term at carbon prices reaching around $15/tCO2 by 2030 the models agree that the reduction in consumer spending, as a proxy for welfare, is expected to be limited in all countries modelled and across the continent. However, by 2050 and at carbon prices of $165/tCO2, there is much more divergence in the estimated impact on GDP and consumer spending across models and across countries in Latin America reflecting the uncertainty about the cost of technology and substitution between technology options. The insight of the hybrid modelling approach comes through in the comparison of increasingly higher carbon prices in each model. The negative impact of reduced consumer spending and GDP are linear in the CGE models and increase as the carbon price increases; but divergent and non-linear in E3ME-TIAM-ECN reflecting step-changes in technology substitution in TIAM-ECN and the non-linear impact of each technology (its cost, cost composition and supply chain implications) on the economy as represented in E3ME.

A similar multi-model scenario analysis of economic impacts of mitigation in Latin America has not been made, so some contribute a new piece of work to the existing literature. This study possesses particular relevance for the ongoing climate negotiations leading up to COP-21 in Paris, as was demonstrated by the attention we received by the presentation of this work during COP-20 in Lima in December 2014. Given the best theme of this paper, our work, if accepted, could be presented in session N° 3335 - Latin America pathways. This has been multi-authored exercise, led by Philip Summerton, with contributions from Hector Pollitt (Cambridge Econometrics), Unnada Chewpreetha (Cambridge Econometrics), Xiaolin Ren (National Centre for Atmospheric Research), William Wills (Energy Planning Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), Claudia Octaviano (MIT Joint Program on Rio de Janeiro), Claudia Octaviano (MIT Joint Program on Rio de Janeiro), Claudia Octaviano (MIT Joint Program on Rio de Janeiro), James McFarland (US Environmental Protection Agency), Robert Beach (RTI International), Andres Camilo Alvarez Espinosa (National Planning Department, Colombia), Silvia Calderon (National Planning Department, Colombia), Karen Fisher-Vanden (Penn State University), Katie Daenzler (Penn State University), and Ana Maria Loboguerrro Rodriguez (CIAT-CCAFS).

# Scenario building and macroeconomic modelling: in response to climate change challenges: an overview of the modelling results from MAPS Latin America

## AM. Rojas (1)

(1) University of Cape Town - MAPS Programme, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

The Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) programme is a collaboration amongst developing countries to establish the evidence base for long-term transition to robust economies that are carbon efficient and climate resilient. The programme aims to contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation aligned with economic development. Central to MAPS is the way it

combines research and stakeholder interest with policy and planning, through providing robust research to underpin national policy processes. This paper focuses on the scenario building and macro-modelling experiences in each of the four MAPS Latin America countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

The paper starts with a description of the results on national feasible GHG abatement options and mitigation options that were identified in each case. We then evaluate cross-cutting assumptions, most recurrent/common actions in the four countries and mitigation scenarios packaging criteria. Later, we compare Required by Science and Required Equity scenarios to the mitigation scenarios to assess ambition and equity levels in the four countries.

Next, the paper explains the economy-wide impacts associated to these mitigation options and scenarios. This section includes a summary of the macroeconomic modelling approaches key features and cross-cutting assumptions of each country model (closure rules, exogenous drivers, world prices and sectoral rigidities). This is followed by an analysis of the related impacts of these assumptions on the socio-economic indicators such as GDP, welfare and employment.

Through out the paper, benchmarks and indicators are calculated to evaluate the results.

This analysis draws on four unique Latin American country experiences that could inform and support policy makers in other Latin American countries when examining policy interventions to transition a low carbon economy.

# Energy Supply Investments in Latin America under Climate Control Policy

J. Falzon (1); T. Kober (2); B. Van Der Zwaan (3); K. Calvin (4); A. Kanudia (5); A. Kitous, (6); M. Labriat (7)

(1) Energy reserach Centre on the Netherlands (ECN), Policy studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (2) Energy reserach Centre on the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (3) ECN / University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (4) JGCRJ, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States of America; (5) KanORS-EMR, NOIDA, UP, India; (6) DG JRC - European Commission, Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (7) Energi Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid, Spain

In this conference contribution we present our findings on energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 investigated through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. Key findings of the project have already been presented at COP 20 in Lima and are forthcoming in a dedicated special issue in Energy Economics expected in spring 2015. In our analysis we compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. We find that more than a doubling of investments, in absolute terms, occurs in the business-as-usual scenario between 2010 and 2050, while investments may be multiplied by up to three over the same time horizon when climate policies are introduced. However, investments are expected to decline over time in the business-as-usual scenario, and even under the most ambitious climate policy scenario, due to the rapid economic growth in the region. For the electricity supply sub-sector business-as-usual cumulative investments of 1.4 trillion US$ are anticipated between 2010 and 2050, and become increasingly important when additional climate policies are introduced: under a carbon tax of 50 $/tCO2e in 2020 increasing with a rate of 4% per year, an additional 0.6 trillion US$ (+45%) investment is needed. Further, our analysis suggests that compared to the business-as-usual case an additional 21 billion US$ per year of electricity supply investments is required in Latin America until 2050 under a climate policy aiming at 2°C climate stabilization, which, when compared to the 100 billion US$2020 targeted to be mobilized globally under the Copenhagen accord by 2020, is substantial. In terms of specific low carbon electricity technologies, model results reveal that wind, solar, and CCS applied to fossil fuels and biomass will play an important role under climate policy scenarios, while nuclear power does not. Significant investment opportunities in renewable energy exist in the short- to medium-term, even in the absence of climate policy measures. If climate change mitigation is envisaged policy frameworks with ambitious long-term goals provide
stronger signals to investors than a policy mix with weak goals and fragmented instruments.

These findings have clear implications for policy makers. Moving forward, increased absolute investment in energy supply, even in the absence of climate control policies, is needed to underpin economic and energy demand growth in the region. Mobilizing necessary additional investment capital, in particular for low-carbon technologies, will be a challenge, and suitable frameworks and enabling environments for a scale-up in public and private investment will be critical to help reach required levels.

## 3335-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3335-01

#### Quantifying the impact of non-conventional renewable energy sources in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Chilean experience

**C. Benavides (1)**

(1) Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile

The countries are interested in quantifying the impact of mitigation actions that they have implemented in order to know how far or near they are from their voluntary and non-voluntary pledges. During COP19 in 2009, Chile proposed a voluntary commitment to reduce its GHG emission by 20% by 2020 with respect to its 2007 baseline scenario. This commitment was confirmed in the Climate Summit in New York (2014) and during the COP21 in Lima, Peru (2007) as a reference is because the country wants that the mitigation actions implemented before 2009 are recognized as a national mitigation effort. In Chile, one the main environment policies is the non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) law implemented before 2009. The first non-conventional renewable energy law was launched in 2008 and it stated that 10% of the total sales would be provided by NCRE sources in 2024. This quota states was updated recently (2013) and the new law states that 20% of the total sales would be provided by NCRE sources in 2025. This paper aims to propose a method to quantify the impact of the non-conventional renewable energy law in reducing greenhouse gases emissions in Chile. The effectiveness of this policy is analyzed.

In order to quantify the impact of this mitigation action by 2020, this exercise requires projecting at least two scenarios: the baseline scenario, i.e. the GHG emission trajectory considering the implementation of the NCRE law, and the counterfactual scenario. This is an estimate of what would have occurred in the absence of the NCRE law. The methodology used an optimization model in order to project the planning in new power plants in the power sector. This model also projects the electricity generation by power plants and the GHG emissions. The steps of methodology are the following:

1. A gathering information process is done for those NCRE projects installed between 2007 and 2014. The first step of the proposed methodology is to estimate how many of these projects were installed due to the NCRE policy launched in 2008.

2. Construction of periodical baseline scenarios between 2007 and 2013. The model to project the baseline scenario is run activating and not activating the NCRE constraint. The resulted investment plants of these cases (with and without NCRE constraints) are compared in order to estimate the installed capacity in NCRE projects between 2007 and 2013. This projection is compared to the real projects installed in the same period.

3. In order to project the emission reduction by 2020, a Baseline 2014 scenario is projected. The Baseline 2014 is the scenario which considers the current situation and trends of the electricity generation sector: current investment cost projection, fuel price projection, projection of demand, etc. This model is run activating the NCRE constraint (20% of sales will be provided by NCRE sources by 2025).

4. Projection of the counterfactual scenario since 2014: This scenario has two main differences in comparison

to Baseline 2014 scenario. The first, this model is run non-activating the NCRE energy law, and the second, is to suppose that only % of the installed capacity in NCRE project would be installed in 2014. This percentage is calculated from step 2 of the methodology. The Chilean voluntary pledge refers to a Baseline 2007 scenario; however, we propose that a more realistic quantification of the emission reduction of the policy is done using the current trends of the sector.

5. A sensitivity analysis is done in order to capture the uncertainties.

The results of this methodology show that the emission reduction of this policy would be between 1.1 and 6.1 million tCO2 in 2020. This emission reduction is compared to other policies implemented in Chile. The results show that the NCRE law has been the most important policy to mitigate the climate change. However, it has not been enough due to the building of thermoelectric power plants has not stopped in Chile. In effect, between 2009 and 2013, 2263 MW of coal power plants were installed. In addition, there are 611 MW of coal plant under construction. Therefore, by 2016 will be 2874 MW additional in coal plant with respect 2006 installed capacity. It means that at least additional 28 million tCO2 will be launched to the atmosphere by the electricity generation sector.

### P-3335-02

#### The territorialization of climate change in southern rural Chile: linking local knowledge to global environmental change

**G. Blanco-Wells (1) ; A. Lagarrigue, (2)**

(1) Universidad Austral de Chile, Center for climate and resilience research, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile; (2) Universidad Austral of Chile, Instituto de historia y ciencias sociales, Valdivia, Chile

This paper presents findings of a five-year research programme called the Sociology of Climate Change (SCC) carried out in southern Chile by an interdisciplinary team. By means of ethnographic work and extended case methods, the research aims to unravel the processes by which national and international public policies on climate change are territorialized in rural regions of southern Chile by farmers, rural dwellers, scientists, and other local agents. From a social sciences perspective, climate change can be seen as an elusive techno-political object needing complex methods to be represented. However, it has gradually become a transforming driver of rural practices and everyday life in rural territories worldwide.

Therefore, the main focus of the case studies is to present evidence about how local actors internalized the socio-technical object called climate change creating new practices and meaningful representations of an otherwise distant global phenomenon. Most institutional actions by government, universities, and international organizations are loaded with a highly normative approach placing mitigation and adaptation at the centre of their strategies. However, little attention has been paid to understand if and how climate change becomes a local category for farmers and rural dwellers, how are they framing their phenomenon and engaging in new sustainable and/or transformational options.

The results show that local actors are concerned with climate related problems but a process of understanding and translation to local epistemologies and ontologies is needed, a process that have conceptualized as territorialization. To illustrate this point we present specific findings on the associations between climate change and peasant agriculture on Chiloé Island, in southern Chile. Drawing from Actor-Network and Social Practice Theories, we track interesting changes in the use of local peasant knowledge as it relates to weather and the organization of farming activities. Furthermore, we find evidence concerning the configuration of new territorial assemblages devised to explore the means of facing the negative consequences of this phenomenon, in terms of both production, and the fragmentation of local knowledge.

The conclusions highlight the importance of empowering networks where mentioned responses are produced and diversified, and in which local knowledge can be updated and applied to the organization of rural practices in order to face growing climate variability.
# Guatemalan Advances to climate change adaptation and Mitigation

M. Chacon (1)

(1) Doctoral Program Climate Change, San Carlos Guatemala University, Guatemala, Guatemala

The goal of this essay is to present a comparative review of the advances of Guatemalan national and municipal initiatives to climate change adaptation and mitigation, which includes public policy, private sector strategies, and indigenous communities' practices to make resilient communities. The author of this essay makes the limitations and contributions to climate change adaptation derived from the national and local planning policies to address sustainable development with the complexity of poverty in climate change impacts. The author also describes private sector experiences in managing natural resources with environmental social responsibility. In addition, the author identifies the local indigenous community strategies and other local practices and principles to manage local natural resources and biodiversity with an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation and prevention of natural disasters. For instance, in Guatemalan indigenous highlands there are recently introduced few forested communal parries which are managed land indigenous organizations; internationally, they aim to increase local economic development, prevent landslides, conserve cultural and natural values, and contribute to reduction of climate change impacts; it is the case of 'hearth Municipal Park' located in Atitlan lake's watershed. Because climate change has shown strong effects in Central American countries in impoverished communities in societies where democratic institutions are recently in building process, in this essay the author has given social attention to national policy and local community initiatives for sustainable development programs in order to know the main principles and aspects that should have been considered in the process of making resilient communities by dealing with the social, ecological, cultural, political and economic impacts of climate change effects in the indigenous communities most affected also by poverty. They are the impoverished urban and rural populations which have had increased social, economic and environmental vulnerability because of the climate change impacts. The climate change impact would be deepest since local governments and rural population have little or lack of understanding of the mid and long term climate change effects and strategies to adapt to it in local communities.

Therefore, it is very crucial to review the climate change factors and effects which are affected by climate change not only because of atitlan Lake and Nino phenomena, but also because of the environmental, social, political and economic impacts and constraints for climate change adaptation and poverty alleviation. Conversely, it is fundamental to correlate climate change effects with sustainability challenges such as poverty, population emigration to international labor sites in USA, and in combination with environmental degradation including deforestation, introduction of areas with planting illegal cultivation related to other drugs' trafficking activities, rural land fragmentation, erosion; such factors are creating more complexity to democratic institutional capacities and economic development plans and strategies for sustainability and resilience. It is the case of the most attractive touristic spots in Guatemala where economic development derived from international tourism is jeopardized because the environmental degradation; it is the case of millennial Mayan historical places like Tikal, and international most attractive and visited spots like Atitlan Lake and Flores Lake where level of water is increasing covering the parts of the surrounding towns. The impacts are more destructive in rural lands and towns because of land use location near risky places where there have been landslides and natural disasters from the Mitch Hurricane, Stan Storm. Other impacts are the reduction of environmental values, ecological functions, landscapes values, diminished environmental protected corridors, less tourism and demand for tourist places losing attractiveness. Moreover, other social economic impacts are the losing the investment of private housing and state investments in municipal parks located in lands occupied by the increased water level of the lakes and rivers, the reduction of areas of agricultural lands affected by the increased water level of the lake and rivers; also, the reduction of productivity in agricultural lands affected by dryness in Nina and Nino phenomena, reduction of health conditions and nutrition of those communities.

# Evidence and Future Scenarios of a Low-Carbon Power System Transformation in Latin America: A Case Study in Nicaragua

D. Ponce de Leon Barido (1) ; D. Kammen (1) ; J. Johnston (2)

(1) University of California, Berkeley, The Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, California, United States of America; (2) University of Hawaii, Electrical engineering, Honolulu, United States of America

The global carbon emissions budget going forward depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Yet there are few studies that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models for such analysis can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low and lower-middle income economies. Recent research also highlights that although low-carbon economy transformations in emerging economies could prove challenging and expensive, cost-effective mitigation actions, such as fossil-fuel subsidy reform, decentralized modern energy access expansion and fuel switching in the power sector, are not only possible, but feasible.

Nicaragua is a country whose power system, like others in Central America and the Caribbean, has been historically dependent on imported fuel oil. Most recently, however, and despite Nicaragua being the third poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, the country is leading a low-carbon power system transformation in Latin America. In 2013 it produced 40% of its electricity from non-hydro renewable energy and in 2014, on an hourly basis, it produced up to 50% of its generation from wind power alone. Motivated by energy security, industrial development, financial risk mitigation, and the need for increased energy access to its most vulnerable populations, Nicaragua has transformed its energy sector in recent years. Between 2009 and 2014 it installed ~190MW of wind energy capacity (14% of total installed capacity), underwent an intensive geothermal technical capacity training in partnership with Iceland, and between 2006 and 2014 the country received over US$ 1.5bn of cumulative renewable energy investments. Yet, despite this great progress, Nicaragua's own ambitious goals (79% and 93% renewables-based generation including large hydropower by 2017 and 2026, respectively) seem daunting.

Here, we utilize both high-resolution open-access data and electric power system planning tools (SWITCH, an optimization model for planning power system investments and operations developed at the University of California, Berkeley) to demonstrate how low- and lower-middle income economies can develop optimal fuel-switching strategies and scenarios for a low-carbon grid. We choose Nicaragua for our analysis as it has very low electricity access (79%), oil accounts for over 80% of all energy imports (55% of Nicaragua's revenue from exports goes towards covering this expenditure), and its current expansion plan (2014-2030) relies primarily on large hydropower development, making the power system particularly vulnerable to hydro-climatalo-gical variability. We evaluate eight power system planning scenarios (base case, geothermal and solar development mandates, oil and large-hydro moratoriums, expensive and risky geothermal resource development, cheap fuel oil prices, and a Central American regional interconnection) that can help Nicaragua evaluate pathways for expansion of renewable and conventional generation technologies while achieving important development objectives: energy access, security, climate-risk mitigation and economic efficiency. Our results suggest that Nicaragua can cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. A regional interconnection (balancing) enables the highest generation from wind and solar (18% and 3%, respectively by 2030), at the lowest cost (US$127/MWh), highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in enabling low-carbon futures. Neither oil price variability (cheap oil prices US$50/bbl increasing 2% per year) nor potentially risky geothermal and hydropower developments (which raise system costs) significantly hinder decarbonization. We conclude with a discussion on the challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and how they can use analyses similar to this one to develop and evaluate their own low-carbon transition pathways.
# 3336 - Post-2030 decarbonisation pathways in Europe

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3336-01

**Title not communicated**

A. Tilche (1)

(1) European Commission, DG Research & Innovation, Brussels, Belgium

Abstract not communicated

### K-3336-02

**Fifth Road Generation: Infrastructure integrated energy systems supporting the transition in the transport energy pool (Session number 3336: Post-2030 decarbonisation pathways: the electricity and transport sector)**

N. Hautière (1)

(1) IFSTTAR, Marne-la-Vallée, Champs sur marne, France

The fight against global warming is a major challenge. In the transport sector, it means both the invention of a sustainable mobility for mitigating climate change, but also adapting infrastructure to the same climate change. Being the predominant mode of transport, the road is at the heart of these ecological transition issues, plus its own challenges such as road deaths or the upselling of the corresponding industrial sector.

In developing countries, according the International Energy Agency (IEA), the number and extent of roads will expand dramatically this century. Globally, at least 25 million kilometers of new roads are anticipated by 2050, i.e. a 60% increase in the total length of roads over that in 2010. These new road infrastructures will have to face many important and diverse challenges, such as a strong increase of the land-use conflicts between transport infrastructures and agriculture.

In western countries, even if a shift to other modes of transport is wished for, the road still represents more than 80% of individual trips and of freight transport and the situation is not likely to change. Indeed, the road network has been developed over thousands of years: emerging from the track to the paved road, then to the smooth road and on to the continuous road.

Despite all the progress made in this sector, the environmental cost of current road infrastructures is still too important. There is thus a need of strong innovation in this sector to solve the related issues. Unfortunately, the road sector is experiencing difficulties to innovate. This is partly due in France to a lack of support from public authorities, like the lack of competitiveness cluster, or of an ambitious innovation program. This fragility is even more worrying, since a number of breakthrough innovations are emerging internationally. Among the most promising technologies, one can cite the green materials, the nanomaterials and nanosensors, the electromobility, the energy harvesting, and the cooperative intelligent transportation systems.

The R5G program (R5G for French "Route de Sème Génération") aims at changing the image of road infrastructures by designing, constructing and operating full scale demonstrators, which implement the innovative solutions, already tested in research centres. Aligned with the Forever Open Road program led by the Federation of European Highway Research Laboratories (FEHRL) since 2011, the program is elaborated in a systemic approach and is divided in three phases: labeling, appropriation and generalization. Among the seven technical challenges, the challenge of positive energy roads is currently debated in the framework of the French energy transition law and is likely to open new business models. The potential benefits of such a program are numerous: Maintaining the RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) of existing road networks, reinforcing industrial leaderships and targeting societal objectives (education, employment, and environment).

### O-3336-01

**Investigation of carbon dioxide fluxes and possibility its storage in Georgia**

M. George (1) ; M. Todadze (1)

(1) Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

The major objective of investigation was study the natural CO2 sources, to investigate the properties ofrocks, which contain and absorb CO2 during its emission. Mentioned rocks are considered as anunderground Carbon dioxide reservoirs. For this case created numerical model to determine the potential of save sequestration in Carbon dioxide reservoirs and to understand the geochemical and mechanicalprocesses associated with long-term storage of CO2 including methods to assess zones of weakness. Finally was calculated balance of carbon dioxide and how will decrees emission in atmosphere in future.

# 3337 - Facing floods and climate challenges: designing governance arrangements and unlocking financing on the pathway to resilient cities

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3337-01

**Governance for resilient cities: insights from the STAR-FLOOD project**

A. Crabbé (1) ; C. Larrue (2)

(1) University of Antwerp, Faculty of political and social sciences, Antwerp, Belgium; (2) Institut d'Urbanisme de Paris - Université Paris Est Crèteil Val de Marne, Val de Marne, Marne la Vallée, France

Between 2000 and 2010, Europe has suffered more than 175 major floods, causing deaths, large economic losses and displacement of people. In the decades to come, climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of flood events. As urbanization in flood-prone

areas still continues, the flood issue becomes one of the big challenges for cities in the future. Within this context, it appears that flood risk management is not only about controlling the rivers with protection systems anymore. Since the 1990s, most European countries are developing a multitude of strategies against floods.

Within the STAR-FLOOD project (www.starflood.eu), five Flood Risk Strategies are identified: risk prevention, flood defence, flood mitigation, flood preparation and flood recovery. The project investigates these strategies in six European countries (England, Belgium, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). Its overall objective is to assess the institutional embedding of these strategies at the national and local scales from a combined public administration and legal perspective. The project aims to contribute to the identification of suitable experiences of Flood Risk Governance in Europe at the scale of urban regions. National country profiles have already been produced and local cases are researched.
In our presentation, we will discuss stability and change in flood risk management in Europe, we will share our (French and Belgian) experiences with designing and implementing governance arrangements for flood risk management and we will highlight the main challenges and opportunities ahead.

## K-3337-02

# The Resilience Pathway 2.0; a new way of city and area development with promising climate impact

### E. Schellekens (1)

(1) ARCADIS and Climate KIC, Water and Environment, Amersfoort, Netherlands

There is an urgent need for climate adaptation to avoid huge socio-economic losses (growing from today's $56bn to $60bn p.a.) by 2050 in the 136 largest coastal cities alone). However, non-availability of money and gaps in capabilities are huge barriers. A flow of private money, either besides or apart from public money, needs to be unlocked if adaptation is to happen quickly enough. Research (ABL / Ricardo AEA, 2013, Defra, 2013) shows that many cities (around 80% in Europe) have low or very low capacity and therefore cannot specify required resilience measures.

To unlock money flows and to raise capacity of stakeholders, ARCADIS and TPL have developed and successfully tested a new and unique high level business model, the 'Resilience Pathway 2.0', with European cities and have reached out to potential financial partners, with encouraging results.

Existing high level engineering skills and products and services have been brought together in partnership with leading deal-structuring experts and financial organisations to help riverine and coastal cities to access private and public money for climate adaptation.

Resilience is most needed for long-lasting decisions with outcomes that last 10+ years (e.g. water and other infrastructure), which need to be viable in unpredictable and fast changing future climate and energy scenarios, where the status quo is usually the least likely scenario. These decisions are difficult and / or expensive to reverse (in money and energy terms). This is where identifying 'moments of change' and defining 'investment opportunities' seem the way to go, while creating a 'marriage' between technical, financial and social engineering. The main phases of the Resilience Pathway 2.0 that will be explained with real cases during the speech are as follows;

**Phase 1:** Scoping. The output of this first phase is a clear briefing document clarifying the challenges to be addressed, also to identify potential opportunities ('moments of change') to address them.

**Phase 2:** Optioneering [1]. The purpose of the Optioneering phase is to identify one or several promising, fundable and feasible business cases around a development (or a combination of developments). These will provide alternative routes to meeting climate and other objectives of projects that will be attractive to private and other investors. This is a unique and crucial phase, where bringing high-level engineering and financial thinking together is essential in unlocking finance for resilience.

**Phase 3:** Deal Structuring. The purpose of the third phase, the Deal structuring phase, is to transform the selected intervention opportunity - as identified in the Optioneering phase - into a contract with detailed specifications and financial and legal arrangements (e.g. permitting) to deliver the project objectives: resilient projects with an acceptable (typically low) risk-return profile.

### Phase 4: Project implementation

The aim of the project implementation phase is to get the projects or developments realised and well managed. This phase is a missing link in many strategies.

[1] 'Optioneering' is a term used by financial intermediaries to identify potential ways of approaching a major deal.

To be able to implement this Resilience Pathway 2.0 mid or high level capacity is needed at the relevant stakeholders. The methodology both to assess and to improve the capabilities needed has been tested en proven.

And last but not least, the Resilience Pathway 2.0 generates high climate impact but also creates promising business opportunities to make it economically sustainable as well.

## O-3337-01

# Addressing flood risks at urban scale, the case of Geraardsbergen (Belgium)

### H. Mees (1); VDC. Liesbet (2)

(1) University of Antwerp, Sociology, Antwerp, Belgium; (2) City Geraardsbergen, Geraardsbergen, Belgium

With its location next to the Dender river, the city of Geraardsbergen (32.950 inhabitants) is highly susceptible to flooding. The Dender is a typical spate river; whereas it has water discharge is normally low, it can rapidly grow in volume during wet periods. Consequently, the surrounding land along the river traditionally functioned as a large floodplain. With the development of the Regional Spatial Plan in 1978, a significant amount of this floodplain was marked as building zone. As a result, a rapid urbanization of the Dender region took place in the following decades. The consequences of this development became clear in the 1990s. Damage was caused by flooding in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2010. Whereas the damage of the previous floods was restricted to a small number of properties, the flood of 2010 had a wide-scale impact; 398 houses were flooded with a damage cost of about 5 million euro (Assuriaal 2011).

After the 2010 flood, the city of Geraardsbergen has committed itself to a new approach which aligns with the 3P's prescribed by the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). A coordinator for integrated water management was appointed, who has the task to keep an overview on the actions carried out by the different departments of the City Administration and to be a medium between the several water managers involved in the basin. The City strictly applies the water assessment tool provided by the Flemish government in the deliverance of permits and has invested in measures to enhance preparedness, e.g. the mobile dams and SMS-warning service.

Improvements in flood risk management are however hampered by a number of factors contributing to inertia. Firstly, the existing legislation on spatial planning limits the political and financial feasibility to avoid further development in flood-prone areas. Recently, however, a new legal instrument was developed which should facilitate municipalities to swap land destinations. Geraardsbergen is currently investigating this possibility.

Secondly, the flood safety of the Dender basin is dependent on the infrastructure on the river. By rectifying the river and building up its floodplains, flood damage is only to be prevented by an efficient drainage of the water discharge. This is currently hampered by the outdated sluice infrastructure, which needs to be replaced. Due to complex decision-making procedures, however, the renovation is consistently delayed.

In our presentation, we want to share experiences on integrated flood risk management at urban scale. We will give an overview of recent developments in the flood management of Geraardsbergen, address remaining bottlenecks and present some possible solutions to be discussed with the audience. The evaluation is based on the results of the STAR-FLOOD project, which analysed flood risk management in Geraardsbergen in comparison to two other cities and the national policy-making level. The research was conducted through juridical and policy analysis of relevant legislation, policy documents and interviews with stakeholders. The results of the research were discussed by the interviewed stakeholders on a workshop held in January 2015.

### References:

Assuriaal (2011). Overstromingen 2010. Meest getroffen gemeenten. Retrieved at 12/09/2013 from http://www.assuriaal.be/fileadmin/content/documents/berspichten/111110_Ne_Bijlage-overstromingen-nov2010.pdf
## Flood risk management and intercommunal cooperation: Lessons learnt from the experiences of Nevers (Middle Loire, France) and Le Havre (Seine Estuary, France) Agglomérations

M. Fournier (1) ; G. Mathilde (2)

(1) Ecole Supérieure des Géomètres et Topographes - CNAM, Le Mans, France; (2) Université François-Rabelais Tours, UMR citeres cnrs 7324, TOURS Cedex 3, France

The coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe, both on coastal areas and along rivers in the inner lands. In this context, the EU PF7 project STAR-FLOOD "Strengthening and redesigning European flood risk practices: towards appropriate and resilient flood risk governance arrangements" assumes that urban areas will be more resilient if the existing Flood Risk Strategies (risk prevention, flood defence, flood mitigation, flood preparation, flood recovery) are implemented simultaneously and aligned. From this assumption, the STAR-FLOOD project questions, in various case studies from six European countries (Belgium, England, France, The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden), the institutional embedding of those different strategies and flood risk governance at the local scale.

In France, responsibilities for those different Flood Risk Strategies are mainly divided between municipalities and the State administration. Municipalities have competences in the fields of flood defence, flood prevention and flood preparation. Such responsibilities are quite heavy and difficult to face for many of them. As a consequence, intercommunal cooperation is becoming more and more frequent in this field. In previous researches, we demonstrated that the setting up of intercommunal structures has progressively allowed local authorities to better deal with environmental issues, leading to the production of new action areas and a rethinking of environmental problems (Larrue, Fournier, 2014; Amralic et al., 2011).

Our contribution will illustrate this evolution and highlight the role of intercommunal structures to better address the different Flood Risk Strategies locally. Our presentation is based the example of two French agglomérations: Nevers and Le Havre Agglomérations, which are both of them case studies in the STAR-FLOOD project. Both of them are already strongly involved in flood risk management and it is possible to draw lessons from their experience.

Nevers Agglomeration is a medium-sized urban intercommunity, regrouping the commune of Nevers (about 36 000 inhabitants in 2011) and 11 other smaller municipalities (about 68 000 inhabitants in total). It is located at the confluence between the Allier, Nièvre and Loire rivers. It faces slow floods from them and urban runoff. Safety on dikes is also a major issue, as most of them have been built several centuries ago.

Le Havre was about 174 155 inhabitants in 2011. Le Havre is a multi-risk city with an industrial background based on the activity of the harbour. Le Havre is also at the fringe of an agricultural and farming area, composed of intensive agricultural open fields. The main consequence for water management is the increase of soil erosion and land degradation. Above all, Le Havre is losing population since the 1980's. The risk of losing population is considered as an immediate danger by the local stakeholders. Floods are seen as less dangerous than a decrease of economical and urban growth.

In this contribution, we will describe how both Agglomérations are progressively taking the lead for flood management and facilitate coordination between Flood Risk Strategies.

In the case of Nevers Agglomeration, intercommunal cooperation has enabled local authorities to take the lead in a comprehensive approach of the flood risk. In 2007, Nevers Agglomeration launched a major study of the flood risk addressing both hydraulic and vulnerability issues on its territory. This study has provided intercommunal authorities with inputs and resources to negotiate with the State administration on the flood issue. Intercommunal cooperation has also been a real asset to promote

innovative strategies, align local protection and mitigation measures and better deal with flood preparation and management crisis locally.

In the case of Le Havre, the intercommunal structure provides a range of resources (human resources, technical skills, engineering response capacity and financial powers) to all the municipalities for risk management, based on a strong local expertise in the field of Industrial Risk Management since the 1970's. The intercommunal structure gathers a joint coalition to negotiate the scenario proposed by the State, not only to discuss the implementation but also to define the level of occurrence of flood.

## Sharing the funding of Flood Risk Management: The impact of Partnership Funding on the River Thames Scheme, London

AP. MICOU (1) ; S. PRIEST, (1) ; M. Alexander (1)

(1) Middlesex University, Flood hazard research centre, London, United Kingdom

Cities across Europe are suffering increasing flood risks due primarily to urbanization and climate change. As a response to this, a variety of rule changes are being developed to tackle this problem at a European, national and regional level. An assessment of the effects of national policy on the delivery of Flood Risk Management at a local level has been carried out as part of the EU project STAR-FLOOD (http://www.starflood.eu/). In England, the Coastal and Flood Erosion Resilience Partnership Funding (‘Partnership Funding’ Defra 2011) describes a new approach to funding which requires the costs of many flood risk management projects to be shared between national and local funding sources, such as via local governments, the private sector or civil society. The introduction of Partnership Funding was as a direct response to the need to unlock additional revenue streams and broaden risk sharing arrangements under scenarios of increasing risk. However, a consequence of this policy change is also a further impact upon the governance arrangement at a project scale, including the arrangement of actors, their responsibilities, their relationships as well as the power they exert within a decision-making process.

Based on interviews conducted with representatives from the local and national government, this work assesses how the Partnership Funding is impacting on the implementation of one particular project: the River Thames Scheme (RTS), in Southeast England. The RTS involves the construction of three national waterways in the Lower Thames segment (situated West from London), as well as other measures, such as the installation of property level measures and the improvement of warning systems, protecting in total 15,000 properties. The project has been approved but it is still subject to identifying locally sourced funding. The study presents an analysis and evaluation of flood risk governance and highlights the limitations/ barriers of involving local government (of which there are seven separate councils involved) in the development of large scale flood risk management schemes. However, the study also highlights the advantages and opportunities which this new funding mechanism brings to the Flood Risk Management agenda, in particular the increased flexibility which has permitted the previously undelivered flood defence strategies in the Lower Thames. The evaluation considers the impact on efficiency and legitimacy of flood risk governance and on the current and long term societal resilience in the area of interest.

## Coupling Mobile Sensing, Earth Observations and E-GNSS in a Novel Flood Emergency Service

C. Rossi (1) ; S. Wolfgang (2) ; B. Conrad (3) ; Z. Gunter (4)

C. Nina (5) ; P. Davide (6) ; S. Emiliano (7) ; F. Dominici (8)

(1) Istituto Superiore Mario Boella, Microsoft Innovation Center, Torino, Italy; (2) GeoVille Information Systems GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria; (3) EOXPLORE UG, Weil am Rhein, Germany; (4) Terranea UG, Bürgstadt, Germany; (5) NDConsult, London, United Kingdom; (6) UNESCO, Venice, Italy; (7) ALPHA Consult, Milan, Italy; (8) Istituto Superiore Mario Boella, Mobile solutions, Torino, Italy
Periodic flood events devastating urban and suburban areas are an important issue for mankind. Flood events, especially in Europe, have, in recent years, caused significant human and economic losses, especially affecting densely populated areas. The consequences of floods are exacerbated by urban sprawl and climate change, especially in areas close to large streams and rivers. This situation can produce flash floods that are very difficult to predict and hard to manage with respect to citizen alerting, operational planning, and flood evolution prediction. According to recent reports, between 1980 and 2008 there were around 2800 floods worldwide, with almost 280k people killed and resulting in approximately 400 billion dollars of economic damages.

These facts point to the need to improve the timeliness and intelligence of flood emergency systems to help public administrators to better manage flood-related emergencies. Indeed, advanced monitoring and forecasting services are becoming mandatory to better address and mitigate crisis situations arising before, during and after heavy flood events.

Today, most advanced flood emergency management systems can rely on Earth Observations (EO) to acquire relevant imagery for processing, spatial analysis and dissemination via technologies including geographic information systems. In terms of crisis management and monitoring of natural disasters, earth observation is one of the leading technologies, as it allows the capturing of important measurements of the hazard, both in near real-time as well as after the event. The Copernicus Emergency Management System provides mapping services for all actors involved in the management of natural disasters, with accurate geospatial dissemination, deriving from EO and complemented with in situ or open data sources, whenever available. EO satellites support the collection of a wide range of measurements for different natural disasters including forest fires and floods, and they can also be used to produce detailed Global Elevation Models (DEM) of the Earth. Overall, EO can provide current data of a specific area, allowing the creation of flood delineation maps with different time resolutions, depending on the geographical area and the satellites orbit. However, due to both the administrative operations required by the activation procedures and the need for satellites acquiring current images, some days can pass between the occurrence of a flood and its first mapping. This delay is not ideal during rapidly occurring emergency events such as flash floods, posing a significant limit in quickly providing reliable flood extent and forecast map. To overcome the aforementioned problem, Copernicus downstream service that exploits existing space assets together with mobile sensing and state-of-the-art cloud systems in order to provide a faster, more flexible and scalable flood emergency response system, extending the capabilities of the current EMS. FLOODISIL leverages the mobile sensing paradigm to improve the timeliness of accessing flood disaster related information by letting users report the flood status nearby through their mobile devices (smartphones, tablets). A report includes a short description, a photo, and an indication of the water level in its location. We integrate these geolocated reports with EO-derived map information in order to provide a decision support system for public administrations, targeting enhanced flood information and early emergency alerts for citizens as well as for Civil Protection rescue teams. With mobile sensing, and EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) data when available, we also enhance flood extent map updates and predictions by implementing a novel flood forecast model. Furthermore, to increase the accuracy of user data, we improve mobile positioning by implementing a cloud-based service on top of the EGNOs Data Access Service (EDAS), which provides differential corrections for GPS, thus achieving both position integrity - in the form of the so-called protection levels - as well as increased accuracy.

In short, FLOODISIL aims at achieving the following goals: (i) to provide a flood alert and information service for emergency response teams and affected citizens by leveraging on existing space assets; (ii) to increase social awareness and citizen involvement in flood emergencies through the application of mobile sensing; (iii) to increase the accuracy and the timeliness of flood extent and forecast maps by integrating user reports; (iv) ultimately, to reduce the social impact of floods, both in terms of human as well as economic losses.

## Unpacking the notion of "more resilient flood risk governance" - a framework with examples from flood risk governance in Europe

P. Driessen, (1) ; RM. Van (2) ; D. Hegger (3) ; M. Bakker (4) ; ZW. Kundzewicz (5) ; M. Wiering, (6) ; T. Raadgever, (7) ; A. Crabbé (8)

(1) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht university, Utrecht, Netherlands; (2) Utrecht Centre for Water, Oceans and Sustainability Law, Utrecht, Netherlands; (3) Utrecht University, Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands; (4) Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (5) Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland; (6) Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands; (7) Grontmij, De Bilt, Netherlands; (8) University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium

European countries, especially urban areas, face increasing flood risks due to urbanisation and the effects of climate change. In literature and in practice, it is argued that a diversification of Flood Risk Management Strategies makes urban agglomerations more resilient to flood risks. The latter requires innovations in existing flood risk governance arrangements, development of new arrangements and the coordination of these arrangements. We argue that the notion that diversified FRM leads to more resilience to flood risks is a plausible proposition, but one that should be critically scrutinised through comparative empirical research. To do this, we first present a brief overview of the state of the art of literature on resilience of social-ecological systems and flood risk governance. Next, based on the literature review, we operationalise the notion of "more resilient flood risk governance" into five criteria: resistance, robustness, ability to absorb and recover, social learning, and ability to adapt. Third, we use examples from an ongoing research project on flood risk governance in Europe (the EU FP7 project STAR-FLOOD) to discuss to what extent a diversification of FRM strategies is actually taking place and how the dynamics found can be scored using our criteria. The findings reconfirm that one-size-fits-all solutions for achieving resilient flood risk governance do not exist. There are different ways in which flood risk governance arrangements can be made appropriate to the specific context and physical contexts. We nevertheless will derive some common understandings and main lessons from this comparative research about flood risk governance in practice.

## Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling supports better decisions in flood risk management

H. Kreibich (1) ; K. Schröter, (1)

(1) German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions.

This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale, i.e. for individual objects and for aggregated land use units; and will discuss their potential and limitations.

For instance, we compared the predictive capability of six flood damage models (four deterministic and two probabilistic models) in a spatial transfer function using empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were compiled after the
floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. For validation a split sample approach was followed. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Since it is crucial to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved in order to enable informed decisions, probabilistic models are adopted, together they quantify prediction uncertainty. This additional information about the reliability of model predictions improves the usefulness of model results and even more so in spatial transfer applications.

## P-3337-03

### Lessons learnt in preventing health effects of floods events in the European Region

B. Menne (1) ; V. Kendrovski, (2) ; S. Gerardo (2)

(1) WHO, health security and the environment, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, Bonn, Germany

The WHO Regional Office for Europe, within its division on health security, is actively in charge of advising its 53 Member States in preparedness and response of flood events, with a particular focus on health. Between 1990 and 2015, more than 1000 people died and several million were affected during flood events. In this presentation we will briefly outline the health effects, based on several systematic literature reviews and describe the practical lessons learnt during and after 2 major flood events: the 2002 Elbe floods and the 2014 Balcan floods. The presentation will highlight required preflight measures, during flood public health relevant initiatives as well as post flood management. Gaps in flood response will be highlighted in particular with a view of more frequent and intense flood events.

## P-3337-04

### Climate change adaptation : towards a legal change ?

T. Thuillier (1)

(1) Université François Rabelais, UFR Droit, Economie et Sciences Sociales, Tours, France

The world is facing climate change, which impacts on the international community at large. Such a problem requires a global response followed by local actions to deal with this new challenge. This response is characterized by the crossing of mitigation measures, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and adaptation measures for reducing the risk and damage from current (ex post aspect) and future (ex ante aspect) harmful impacts. Among the different effects compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we could note for instance rising sea level or more frequent flash floods and marine submersion. Statistical studies have shown that natural disasters will be increasingly important in the next few years. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to draw up adaptation and risk reduction measures and all the instruments of public policy, such as normative instrument

/ law, have to be mobilized.

These last years, France has established a real adaptation to climate change policy through the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) provided for in the Grenelle Act of 2009. Indeed, this plan is consistent with the European strategy of adaptation to climate change adopted in 2013 by the European Commission, which invites every Member State to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies.

When analysing on a legal point of view these different plans or strategies adopted at national or European level, one may see there weak normative force. Even if the Grenelle Act of 2009 makes provision in Article 42 for 'the preparation of a National Adaptation Plan for a variety of areas of activity by 2020', one may say that it has no legal value. Indeed, the plan has not been adopted by the French Parliament or the Government through a regulatory act. Only a consultation was carried out in 2010 bringing together panels from the Grenelle Environment Forum (elected representatives and local authorities, the state, employers, employee unions and non-profit associations). At the European level, the Strategy of adaptation to climate change has been drawn up through a communication of the European Commission. These two plans can be both described as soft law instruments used to improve stakeholders support (Dreyfus & Patt, 2011).

Even if such an intention can be laudable, it must be remembered that States are responsible for human security. This responsibility belongs to the political and legal domains. From an intern and European legal point of view, there is no explicit obligation stating that a State has to protect its population against the consequences of climate change impacts. Yet, the French disaster law is composed of the protection principle, which enjoys the State and local authorities to protect effectively their population when a natural disaster happens (Cans at al., 2014). At the European level, the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR) protects the right to life and imposes positive obligations on Member States to guarantee this fundamental right (Gouritin, 2009).

In order to avoid any action for damages against public authorities and to constrain actors to prepare effectively to climate change consequences, the implementation of a real arsenal of hard law provisions is necessary.

But how can we incorporate this variable "climate change", characterized by its uncertainty and its permanent evolution in progress, into normative instrument which are traditionally looking for a certain degree of legal certainty?

The purpose of this communication is to analyse some French legislative instruments directly or indirectly used in the field of flood risk management (flood risk prevention plan (PPRI), flood risk management plan [PGRI], local urban planning scheme [PLU], territorial consistency plan (SCOT)) from a climate change perspective. The main issue for this topic is to what extent these different instruments can be a vehicle for adaptation to climate change. On conclusion to this study, concrete propositions will be made in order to better integrate data linked to climate change into these legal instruments.

# 3338 - European Collaborative Research and Innovation for Climate Action

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3338-01

#### Title not communicated

A. Tilche (1)

(1) European Commission, DG Research & Innovation, Brussels, Belgium

Abstract not communicated

### K-3338-02

#### Title not communicated

P.Monfray (1)

(1)ANR, JPI Climate, Paris, France

Abstract not communicated

### K-3338-03

#### Title not communicated

B. Van Ee (1)

(1) CEO, Climate–KIC, London, United Kingdom

Abstract not communicated
## Floods and International River Basin Districts: Europe stands United?

C. Suykens (1)

(1) Institute for Environmental and Energy Law, Public Law, Leuven, Belgium

Problem definition

Through the introduction of the concept of International River Basin Districts (IRBDs), water law in Europe aims to focus on ecological boundaries as opposed to administrative boundaries. Considering the fact that approximately 60 % of EU water is transboundary, and there are transboundary waters in all Member States with the exception of Cyprus and Malta, solid cooperation and conflict prevention mechanisms throughout EU Member States are critical for ensuring quantitative water security. Indeed, actions upstream (in one country) impact the

quality and quantity of water downstream (in the part of the river basin located in a neighbouring country) and vice versa. The floods in Central Europe in 2013 demonstrate the transboundary nature of the phenomena, as the floods emerged in one jurisdiction and proliferated in other jurisdictions. However, as will be demonstrated, solid mechanisms for cooperation are lacking in the European legal framework with regard to IRBDs.

Outline of the presentation

This contribution will review how the EU legal framework drives cooperation in IRBDs, in order to tackle the inherently transboundary issue of flooding. This will be done on the basis of the five pillars of transboundary water governance, as set forth by the Global Water Partnership, namely (i) scope, (ii) substantive rules, (iii) procedural rules, (iv) institutional mechanisms and (v) dispute resolution.

Through the framework of these pillars, the existing bottlenecks in the EU framework will be identified. On the basis of this analysis, ways forward will be set forth, amongst others drawing from a legal comparative analysis with transboundary river governance agreements in the United States.

# 3339 - Effective design and implementation of EU climate policy

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-3339-01

#### Three stylised policy scenarios

P. Drummond (1)

(1) University College London, Institute for Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom

This presentation will focus on the results of a paper assessing the ability of three stylised policy scenarios to deliver the low-carbon energy infrastructure required in the EU by 2050. First, key infrastructure requirements as commonly agreed by modelling studies will be outlined across the key sectors of power generation, industry, buildings and transport, with 'infrastructure' encompassing both stationary and mobile components of the energy system (from power generation to vehicles). The three stylised scenarios will then be introduced, each centred on a particular policy paradigm (market-based, technology-based and behaviour-based). Following this, the key benefits and problems associated with each, and their ability to deliver the energy infrastructure outlined for each sector, will be presented.

### O-3339-02

#### Dealing with uncertainty in the European climate policy

O. Lecuyer (1) ; P. Quirion (2)

(1) University of Bern, Occr, Bern, Switzerland; (2) CNRS, Cired, Nogent sur Marne, France

While the European climate policy has been the target of a large number of economic analyses, both from academics and from the European Commission services, almost all modelling exercises have been deterministic, allowing at best for testing a few scenarios. Stochastic models have been developed but in most cases without numerical application to climate policies. In the few exceptions, the climate policy only consists in CO2 pricing, implemented either through a tax, an ETS or a rate-based policy (e.g. an intensity target).

Yet the history of climate policy is full of surprises, including the swings in EU ETS allowance price and the unexpected surge in PV installation in Germany. We develop a simple stochastic model of the European energy sector featuring the most important uncertainty sources in this context, i.e. economic growth and the cost of key technologies, as well as the interaction between climate policy and renewable energy subsidies.

It turns out that uncertainty changes the (ex ante) optimal policy choice. In particular, most analysts conclude that

if CO2 emissions from the power sector are covered by an ETS, there is no or little rationale for renewable energy subsidies. Yet, if uncertainty is high enough, emissions may fall below the ETS cap in some states of the world, leading to a nil allowance price. Hence, energy subsidies at a proper level are justified as a kind of insurance that at least some abatement will happen in these states of the world, which is welcome since the marginal benefit of GHG abatement is positive in these states of the world also.

This point is not only theoretical: a careful examination of existing and past ETS worldwide indicates that for most of them, emissions have been significantly below the cap during at least a part of their history. Moreover there is no guarantee that the Market Stability Reserve proposed to the European Commission will be adopted by the Council and the Parliament, and most analyses conclude that this mechanism is unlikely to stabilise the CO2 price significantly.

Moreover, we show that the design of renewable energy subsidies should take into account uncertainty. In particular, feed-in-tariff, premium and renewable quota all respond in a specific way to a change in renewable energy cost, in fossil fuels price or in electricity demand. A model is designed to compare them when implemented in isolation, which concludes that a renewable quota is by far the worst instrument, mostly because it does not respond to a change in renewable energy cost or in fossil fuels price. Finally, we analyse how this ranking of renewable subsidy instruments changes when they are implemented together with an ETS, as is currently the case in the EU. Compared to the premium, the feed-in-tariff provides a subsidy which decreases with the electricity price, itself positively correlated to the CO2 price. Hence it helps to stabilise the marginal abatement cost, which is welcome for a stock pollutant like GHG gases, whose marginal benefit curve is flat.

### O-3339-03

#### The availability of finance for the low carbon economy. Eco innovation diffusion, sector analyses and green climate funding

M. Mazzanti (1) ; Z. Mariangela (2) ; G. Claudia (3) ; A. Davide (3) ; M. Susanna (3) ; V. Costantini (4)

(1) University of Ferrara, SEEDS; CERIS National Research Council Milan; IFEF Bocconi Milan, Italy, Www.sustainability-seeds.org, Ferrara, Italy; (2) Tr Vergata Rome, Rome, Italy; (3) University of Ferrara, SEEDS, Italy, Www.sustainability-seeds.org, Ferrara, Italy; (4) Roma Tre University, Department of Economics, Rome, Italy

The macroeconomic setting is slowly moving towards financing the green / low carbon economy with diversified private and public oriented sources. Nevertheless, if compared to the mass of potential liquidity this
development is still in its infancy.

Sector, firm based and macro evidence is presented and integrated.

We do highlight three key findings among others.

At firm level, the overall evidence could reinforce the likelihood of a different kind of scenario, where MNES proactively react to the recession shock and LC economy targets and find ways to bring together competitiveness and sustainability; SME react with more difficulty, some of them 'exploiting' the challenge of financial barriers and (environmental) policies by turning costs into enhanced innovative and economic performances, others failing to innovate. If this is on the one hand a typical and also normal evolution of the economic cycle which depends upon firms' creation and destruction, policy makers should be aware of the possible increasing divergences between sectors, firms, regions in the EU; some of those could possess irreversible features and create 'hot spots', namely structurally underperforming regions / sectors.

Second, financial barriers confirm to be a deterrent for the innovative capacity of EU firms in the current situation if one observes the overall quasi-qualitative evidence. This is true for the economy as a whole, and for manufacturing or construction firms taken alone. Being smaller and having low human capital in the firm also hampers environmental innovations (EI). On the 'positive' side, we note that existing regulations and expected increasing demand for green products support EI adoption. Financial barriers are perceived by firms and influenced by technological lock in, uncertainty on investments, non-competitive markets, and lack of subsidies. While policies are driving innovations to some extent, 'external knowledge sourcing' seems not to play any significant role in this context. This highlights a strong critical issue: external finance elements deters EI and external knowledge is not acting as a potential substitute; firms are currently isolated islands towards the green economy, with respect to other firms and financial institutions.

At macro level, the possibility to use environmental policy reforms is assessed by a dynamic CGE modelling approach that analyzes the case of Green Climate Funds, which are eventually generated out of carbon taxes revenues and might support sector eco innovative dynamics following countries specific needs. Green Climate Funds financed through a levy on carbon can benefit all parties, and larger benefits are associated with energy efficiency in developing countries.

## O-3339-04

# The politics of policy choice. Understanding political feasibility of climate policy instruments in the EU

S. Munaretto (1); H. Walz (1); D. Huitema (1)

(1) Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands

The EU has adopted a mix of policy instruments to achieve its carbon emission reduction targets. However, market and governance failures have led to major inefficiencies, and many call for a revision of the existing instrument mix. But what policy options are politically feasible? Political feasibility is still poorly understood, and the literature falls short in definitions, methods and empirical studies. In this paper, we advance the current state of knowledge by developing a systematic framework that integrates 3 key dimensions of political feasibility, namely power dynamics among relevant interest groups, their preferences for policy instruments and the institutional setting in which proposals for instruments are discussed. The study provides novel insights into the relationship between these dimensions and the political feasibility of different typologies of instruments in the context of the EU climate policy. The empirical analysis is based on a multi-method approach that includes interviews, focus groups, an on-line survey and a policy simulation with relevant stakeholders.

## P-3339-01

# Agriculture: the sleeping beauty of European climate policy? How market-based instruments could reduce emissions

G. Grosjean (1); W. Acworth (1); S. De Cara (2); S. Fuss (3); N. Koch, (3)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) INRA, Economics, Paris, France; (3) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

In order to achieve its long-term emissions reduction goals, the European Union has to significantly reduce its emissions from agriculture. The recent reform intended to "green" the Common Agricultural Policy is unlikely to sufficiently reduce agricultural emissions, although it might have other environmental benefits. Therefore, more ambitious mitigation policies will be necessary for European agriculture if policymakers do not want to jeopardize the achievement of the overall long-term targets. Several studies also show that there is a significant mitigation potential in European agriculture that can be harnessed cost-effectively by the implementation of market-based instruments.

Nonetheless, major barriers appear to make agriculture relatively challenging to decarbonize. In particular, this paper argues that challenges linked to (i) transaction costs, (ii) political economy and (iii) behavioral specificities of actors in the sector complicate the implementation of ambitious mitigation policies. Market-based instruments may imply significant transaction costs for farmers, for instance, related to monitoring, reporting and verification. The specificities of the sector and the degree of protection it benefits through the Common Agricultural Policy also make it more delicate to price its emissions. The interaction between a potential climate policy and the existing CAP will in fact likely be at the heart of any mitigation policy in the sector. Finally, it is also important to take into consideration behavioral aspects and that financial incentives alone might not always be sufficient.

To that end, this paper offers a new framework the coverage-stringency-transfer nexus to investigate and map options to implement climate policies in the sector, while taking into consideration the main obstacles. The coverage is the percentage of agricultural emissions covered by a climate policy, which is driven by emissions sources and the farm size in term of emissions included. The degree of stringency is the type of policy implemented. It can be a voluntary or mandatory, going from offsets to full inclusion in the EU ETS or an emission tax. The transfer dimension reflects the net impact on farmers of the interaction between a new climate policy and the existing CAP subsidies. In fact, it is argued that it is necessary to explicitly discuss potential interactions. Simultaneously, the existence of those subsidies might also represent an opportunity to facilitate the political acceptance of a climate policy in the sector.

It is concluded that heterogeneous and multi-speed policies are necessary as a first step to tackle agricultural emissions. In fact, for emission sources where transaction costs are lower, mandatory mitigation mechanism should be applied, while a voluntary approach could be implemented for emissions sources with high transaction costs. This would reduce transaction costs overtime and gradually enable increasing mandatory coverage. In addition, the paper offers different options to choose from that combine different levels of transfer to farmers and various degree of protection against leakage. These options provide alternatives to policy makers to choose from taking into consideration their perceived political feasibility.

## P-3339-02

# Climate change challenges for European Union in the New Millennium

S.K. Mishra (1)

(1) S. N. D. T. Women's University, Continuing and Adult Education and Extension Work, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India