that balances legitimacy and effectiveness while allowing participation from stakeholders (Dryzek and Stevenson 2011). This is particularly true as vulnerable small island developing states try to find a place in the global governance debate and to govern climate change in their countries.

As in every other area of governance, climate governance was there, and there were resources due to climate change entrenched in political systems and climate governance is difficult where weak and under-resourced institutional arrangements are present. Environmental impacts of climate change increase the social, economic and environmental governance challenges and responses of governments. At the heart of effective climate change governance is the successful political coordination of adaptation and mitigation efforts from global to local scales by state and non-state actors (Frohlich and Kielning 2013). States and international organisations are responsible for at least a third of the initiatives (Hale and Roger 2014). The private sector has been heavily involved through private carbon certification schemes, emission trading markets and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in partnerships with nation states (Lund 2013).

This research reviewed the 15 SIDS that form part of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and share mechanisms for climate change governance. Information on climate change and development impacts for this paper was obtained from semi-structured interviews with national and regional officials in climate change related posts. Secondary sources included reports and publications of multilateral development agencies, regional agencies and from the IPCC. The commonality of perspectives from the interviews was remarkable but not unexpected, key themes included: the institutions that provide the greatest support at global, regional and national levels for climate change governance and their most important impacts/contributions; the main sources of financing for climate change governance in the Caribbean and whether they were sufficient; challenges in application of funds; adequacy and effectiveness of regional mechanisms; whether time-bound project financing allowed for sustainable adaptation policies at the national level; alternative approaches for Caribbean states and what more is needed regarding global, regional and local climate change adaptation.

This paper questions whether and to what extent global governance dynamics for climate change resonate in small states. It argues that the Caribbean climate change problem is both a resource problem and a governance problem. States have limited resources due to pre-existing development challenges and insufficient external support given the unsustainability of the traditional project based financing model of climate governance. These small states face huge environmental changes that they cannot influence and weak governance architectures to respond to this new threat to development.

## K-L4.2-02

### Creating the conditions for transformative action – mobilising the private sector in SIDS

#### J. Firth (1)

(1) Acclimatisate, Newark, United Kingdom

Acclimatisate has worked in over 50 countries assessing the risks arising from a changing climate advising international, national and sub-national governments, NGOs, development partners and business and financial services sectors. Drawing on our experience and observations from published sources this presentation will explore a theme which we believe is a significant driver and enabler in delivering transformative solutions.

The role of the 'private sector' in resilience building and adaptation, to 'impartial change', remains are which has received little attention. Most SIDS operate on a market based economy in which the private sector directly and indirectly is the largest contributor to a country's GDP. However the scope of national adaptation planning, the vulnerability and risk assessments providing the evidence base, and the recognition of the sector's role in providing and delivering solutions is rarely explored.

This is not helped by using a technical 'adaptation language' during engagement which has little relevance to those in the sector and treating the 'private sector'

as a homogenous group. Within many governments the climate change portfolio is 'owned' by Ministries with environmental or natural resource based departments. These Ministries are usually under-funded and have limited political influence within governments. This in turn, constrains their ability to influence cross-sectoral decision making, national budget setting and prioritisation, and ultimately in delivering transformative change working with the private sector. If we are to respond to the climate change challenge then we need to see (in both developing and developed countries) the resilience and adaptation portfolio passing to where the power is: finance, national planning and the offices of Prime Ministers or Presidents.

## K-L4.2-03

### Transformative solutions in two Caribbean Insular Territories Under Climate Change Pressure : How can we reach Resilience targets ? Climate Governance in two non-independent Caribbean Insular Territories: two different paths?

#### J. Priam (1)

(1) Centro de Investigación, Caribbean islands, Puerto Rico

This contribution shows how two non-independent islands of the Caribbean reflect the dynamics of climate governance in their respective Polynesia. For Puerto-Rico, the approach and solutions adopted are best understood against the background of USA climate governance, while in the case of Guadeloupe governance arrangements are more aligned with climate change policy in France and Europe. This theme is explored with reference to case studies on the first wind energy projects implemented in both Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico, and other renewable energy initiatives introduced since 2009.

We explore the differences in approach to climate change issues in the two islands by analyzing the perceptions and attitudes of residents living near the wind farms, as well as the local press. While reflecting internationally accepted approaches to adaptation and mitigation and those of the Metropole, Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico may be considered potential "experimental laboratories" for developing transformative solutions, whose experience may be transferred to other island territories, and even to the Metropolis. A brief analysis of the overall contribution of appropriate renewable energy development to the building of resilience to climate change in these islands, is also presented.

## K-L4.2-04

### Innovative climate financing in Small Islands Developing States (SIDS)

#### V. Fayolle (1)

(1) Acclimatisate, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom

Acclimatisate has worked in over 50 countries assessing the risks arising from a changing climate advising international, national and sub-national governments, NGOs, development partners and business and financial services sectors. Drawing on our experience and observations from published sources this presentation will explore a theme which we believe is a significant driver and enabler in delivering transformative solutions.

As part of a joint effort to mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020 from both public and private sources to address both the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries, a new global financing mechanism was established: the United Nations Green Climate Fund (GCF). Great expectations are being placed on the recently capitalised GCF: the GCF shall meet ambitious goals in terms of promoting a "paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change" with a special emphasis on adaptation in SIDS, Least Developed Countries and Africa, as well as mobilize funds at scale in particular through private corporations, recognising that in the context of strained government budgets the private sector accounts for 70 to 85% of total global investments.

Against this backdrop, the GCF's Private Sector Facility
aims to play a key role in promoting participation of private sector actors in developing countries, with a special emphasis on domestic private sector actors and adaptation (recipients of funding). However, the specific modalities to achieve this still need to be defined. If the GCF is to scale up private investments in building climate

resilience in SIDS, it is essential that it reflects up on the experience in a SIDS context gained by existing multilateral and bilateral climate initiatives, such as the World Bank's led Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in the Caribbean and Pacific, that deploy concessional resources using a programmatic approach.

# L4.3 - Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: exploring the conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development

## K-L4.3-01

### Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: Exploring the conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development with examples from India

**J. Roy (1)**

(1) Jadavpur University, Jadavpur, India

It is beyond debate now that future 'global' stabilization target is fundamental to manage climate change, impacts and associated risks. Mainstream debate is around the need to coordinate the national goals with global agenda. National autonomy argument in fragmented world is dominating. Also national priorities vary depending on relative speed and level on growth trajectories.

**Low Carbon Pathways:** Even though India has much lower per capita emissions, growth pattern of economic activities including energy supply sector are going to experience very high growth rates in coming decades. With a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in place since 2008 a number of actions are in place. Top down global model estimated with India specific sectoral parameter show what additional widespread actions are needed. This clearly shows need for much larger actions: policies, technology deployment, institutions and capacity building are needed. Cross sectoral implications show need for transformative change in energy supply system. Bottom up study at national, state and city level help in identification of sector specific low carbon growth potential of multiple options compared to base year emissions. Potential is high in energy supply sector, buildings sector and agriculture sector with relatively low potential in industry sector which has made much progress in the past and transport sector has huge challenges. Looked into the issue from investment need perspective the sectoral distribution gets reversed. Industry sector where low hanging fruits are already harvested, high cost options are awaiting deployment. Genuine concerns exist on the technical cost/investment /system change. The cost effective solution list might not be the easiest to implement based on public acceptability, market entry barriers, existing policy vacuum, technical and institutional capacity available.

**Resilience:** Impact and Adaptation to develop a climate change proof development trajectory is much in discussion in India also evident from National Action Plan. Many adaptation needs in India e.g. flood management systems, heat and cold related health safety systems, water system security, food security systems will enhance

manifold the demand for energy supply with implications for synergistic mitigation efforts. Example of extreme event led health impact study shows that there is close link between adaptation and mitigation. To enhance resilience labour productivity needs to be protected. This needs huge investment on space conditioning. Energy intensive appliances demand is on steep rise for residential, agriculture and mobility sectors not only due to climatic parameters but also due to rising income. There is scope for energy efficient technology diffusion for new technologies but activity level growth is going to take away clearly the benefits in the short to medium term. Bending of curve cannot be seen in at least in next one and half decade.

**Equity:** Climate justice calls for faster, larger access to modern energy. It is not about providing lighting and space cooling demand but about productive energy input supply. However, case studies on behavioural response also highlight the scope of take back effect due to behavioural response parameter of rebound effect. Experiments (solar micro grids in village electrification) are happening but scale up needs multiple interventions. Technical feasibility is not in question but strategic implementation and multi level governance issues need equal attention. So it is not only technology but behaviour and social practice matter no lesser for making transition to low carbon growth trajectory. Case studies at megacity level show how commitment to larger goal of low carbon growth through conscious decision making can only make a difference in final outcome. Analysis based on case studies of building operational energy demand lead us to conclude that when a technology becomes efficient and if end user is not consciously guided by larger goal of carbon footprint reduction but are looking at financial balance alone may not take a decision in the best interest of low carbon growth. Full economic, social and environmental benefits through conscious decision can be realized through better strategic management of operational behaviour of the end users. It cannot be managed by correcting market price policy alone so there is need to strategically balance between social and market norms. Context of implementation in a fast growing developing country are important to understand. Implementation of newer techno-economic solutions does affect host of actors who will be losers and gainers. Technology deployment policy needs to be strategically designed through new fiscal instrument design market correction, land policy, social goal orientation which most of the time rests either with the federal government or with other non government actors. So besides numbers and evidences, coordination among various layer of governance and choice of new policy instruments are also at the core of speed of implementation.

# L4.4 - Multilevel Governance of Climate Change - New Strategies for Coordinating Policies on Mitigation and Adaptation

## K-L4.4-01

### The Emergence of new structures for global governance: will 'bottom up' actually work ?

**D. Victor (1)**

(1) University of California, San Diego, United States of America

With the failure of integrated, top-down bargaining strategies, analysts and diplomats have now turned to bottom-up methods such as "building blocks" and "climate clubs" to coordinate national climate change policies and to avoid persistent diplomatic deadlock. Decomposition of the grand problem of climate change into smaller units is
a crucial first step towards effective cooperation. But given the great uncertainty of the feasibility and costs of potential solutions, this bottom-up approach will only work if it is supported by institutions that promote joint exploration of possibilities by public and private actors along with the scaling up of successes. As politics precludes creating many of these institutions under the consensus-oriented decision rules of the UN system, engaged outsiders— including special alabs or building blocks that can learn in the face of uncertainty—working in parallel with the UN diplomatic process will have to provide them.

## K-L4.4-02

### Delivering ambitious climate action and the role of multilevel governance

J. Corfee-Morlot (1)

(1) OECD, Paris, France

This presentation presents a framework for multilevel governance, showing that advancing governance of climate change across all levels of government and relevant stakeholders is crucial to avoid policy gaps between local action plans and national policy frameworks (vertical integration) and to encourage cross-scale learning between relevant departments or institutions in local and regional governments (horizontal dimension). Vertical and horizontal integration allows two-way benefits: locally-led or bottom-up where local initiatives influence national action and nationally-led or top-down where enabling frameworks empower local players. The most promising frameworks combine the two into hybrid models of policy dialogue where the lessons learnt are used to modify and fine-tune enabling frameworks and disseminated horizontally, achieving more efficient local implementation of climate strategies. Such integration generates benefits at all stages of the policy process. This includes agenda setting and strategic planning, to encourage political leadership and stakeholders' support; policy formulation and approval to promote long-term vision and near term action; local implementation to overcome obstacles, build necessary capacity, and establish reliable financing for action; feedback and evaluation; and dissemination to promote information sharing and cross-scale learning.

A review of current practices suggests the need for national governments to create a sound institutional foundation and knowledge base to support decision making and action at local levels. National governments are also essential to help deliver financial resources to support local action. Key tools include harmonized GHG inventory methods for local government use and climate risk screening and mapping tools. Institutions designed to support learning and iterative policy making include establishment of regional science-policy centres or "boundary" organisations, often located in academic institutions, to provide locally-relevant scientific and other expert information, and a means for providers and users of such information to engage in a two-way conversation that leads to usable information. Strong urban climate policy networks - working horizontally across local actors to exchange information and experience - is another key institution innovation that enhances learning and that is helping to scale up action from the bottom-up. Designing tools and institutions to strengthen multi-level governance of climate change will help governments to scale up climate action and to find cost-effective climate policy solutions to overcome low-carbon climate resiliency obstacles. It will also help national governments to deliver on ambitious climate policy goals in the coming decades.

## K-L4.4-03

### Climate governance in Latin America: Case studies of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru

A. Rudnick (1); I. Rebolledo (2)

(1) MAPS Programme, Latin America, Santiago, Chile; (2)

Poch Ambiental S.A., Santiago, Chile

Since 2007, there has been an increase in government institutionalization of climate mitigation actions, and many of these efforts are relatively recent and in design or early implementation stage. There is insufficient literature from developing countries that evaluates this institutionalization. It is important to monitor this trend closely to evaluate if policies and institutions created are sufficiently strong and effective to lead to the reductions required (Working group III, chapter 15, AR5 IPCC).

The institutional arrangements case studies aim at describing and documenting the governance related to climate change within MAPS Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). A case study per each country (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru) will be conducted to describe and document, from a practitioner's perspective, the state of the play of the institutional approaches in each country. The results can be useful for other developing countries when examining and enhancing their institutional structures.

The research questions that the country case studies aim to answer are:

* What institutional arrangements exist in MAPS LAC countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru), at a public and national level, to address climate change? What institutions related to climate change mitigation (and adaptation if information is available) exist? How are decisions taken at a national and subnational level? Are the decisions and actions legally binding? How climate change decisions are institutionalised or implemented? If there is information available about how climate change is institutionalised in the private sector, local government and NGOs? How have MAPS processes benefitted from certain institutional arrangements? Has there been any changes or additions in the institutional arrangements as a result of MAPS processes or during MAPS processes? Has there been collaboration among MAPS LAC countries to share and learn from certain institutional arrangements?

**Note:** Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) is a collaboration amongst developing countries to establish the evidence base for long-term transition to robust economies that are both carbon efficient and climate resilient. These processes involve high-level stakeholders in the research process of determining mitigation scenarios for their countries. For more information on the Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios Programme see www.mapsprogramme.org

## K-L4.4-04

### Coordinating adaptation between the municipal and local level: building adaptive capacity of resource poor communities in South Africa

G. Ziervogel (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Environmental and Geographical Science, Cape Town, South Africa

It has been acknowledged that much adaptation to climate change occurs at the city, municipal and community scale. At this local level, both government and local communities need to take action. Both groups needs to strengthen their adaptive capacity and their ability to interact with each other particularly in the face of shocks and stress, as experienced through climate change, resource depletion, economic volatility and increasing inequality. This paper draws on the experience of the FLOW Programme (Fostering Local Well-being). This is a transdisciplinary research project based in the Bergervier Municipality, in the Western Cape that seeks to build adaptive capacity of resource poor community members and strengthen their interaction with the municipality. We suggest that individual's adaptive capacity is dependent on three interdependent dimensions, namely: 1) the development of social cohesion, 2) self-determination, and 3) connection to life-support systems. The paper will explore how the three dimensions that engender adaptive capacity have been built in the case study site. Specifically, the project has worked with youth ambassadors, local entrepreneurs and the local municipality using a range of interventions including participatory community mapping, resource flow mapping, personal and collective reflective practices, storytelling skills through video journalism and introducing community currencies. The paper will interrogate the extent to which these interventions have built adaptive capacity and the importance of including this type of work in future climate change adaptation and transformation responses.

Other authors: Anna Cowen and John Ziniades
# L4.5 - Equity: A Condition to Triggering Action ?

## K-L4.5-01

### The necessary role of ethics and justice in climate policy¹

S. Caney (1)

(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

The talk will cover three points:

(1) Justice and the target of climate policy. First, it is often argued that climate policies should avoid «dangerous anthropogenic interference» (UNFCCC Article 2). Specifying what constitutes a 'dangerous' climatic changes necessarily requires the use of normative criteria, and cannot be settled solely by scientific analyses of the effects of climate change. Determining what the goal of climate policy should be requires policymakers to decide what changes, if any, are acceptable, and which are not and call for action; and this requires ethical criteria and an appeal to ideas of justice. I argue that on any plausible ethical criteria even a 2C goal permits dangerous climatic changes, and that recent calls to move away from the 2C target are misconceived.

(2) Just burden sharing. A second criterion of a just climate policy is that the burdens of combating climate change (including the costs of mitigation, adaptation and compensation) are shared equitably. Many appeal to the doctrine of 'common but differentiated responsibility'. I argue that this requires the endorsement of both a polluter pays principle and an ability to pay principle, and suggest how they should be combined.

(3) My first two points emphasise the need for principles of justice (in both specifying what should be the target of climate policy and how burdens should be shared). My third point draws on this to emphasise the importance of transcending a pure Cost Benefit Approach for evaluating targets and policies.

## K-L4.5-02

### Analysis of equity (including as related to ambition) in submission of INDCs

D. Waskow (1)

(1) World Resources Institute, Washington DC, United States of America

The preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) is an important opportunity for countries to provide information about how their contributions are equitable. The COP decision agreed at Lima invites each country to describe in its INDC its contribution is "fair and ambitious, in light of national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2". A description of equity should include the use of a holistic set of quantitative and qualitative indicators that provide the international community and domestic stakeholders with essential information that includes emissions responsibility, capabilities (including economic and development capabilities), vulnerability and capacity to adapt, potential to act, and co-benefits of action. The information provided can be applicable to both mitigation and adaptation components of INDC. The INDC should also address how the INDC contributes to the global level of ambition for emissions reduction and collective effort for adaptation. Providing robust information and a narrative concerning equity can provide enhanced transparency; enable comparison of contributions among countries; increase international understanding of what is equitable in the context of specific national circumstances; and enable linkages of the contribution with national sustainable development objectives. Doing so can generate constructive discussions both within and among countries about equity and motivate increased and more equitable collective action, and it can help provide direction in establishing common benchmarks and frameworks concerning equity in the UNFCCC. The presentation will provide a proposed framework for describing equitability in INDCs, as well as a review of how countries have thus far provided information on equity in their INDCs.

## K-L4.5-03

### Equity in the 2015 Agreement

X. Ngwadla (1)

(1) Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa

The inclusiveness, durability and effectiveness of the 2015 Agreement largely hinges on how questions relating to equity, and/or perception of fairness by Parties to the UNFCCC are achieved by the agreement. The diversity of the basis for making a judgement of what is fair has translated into a false dichotomy of qualitative vs quantitative treatment of equity in the agreement. The second dichotomy has been created in terms of options for national vs international discipline in the application of a common framework for addressing equity.

In Ngwadla & Rajamani, (2014) proposals and options for addressing the divergences on the technical and legal options for operationalising and Equity Reference Framework (ERF) in the 2015 Agreement. The ERF is framed on the determination of the required global effort and a determination of relative fair contributions by Parties, covering both mitigation and adaptation in its definition of the required effort. Its application and reflection in the agreements presents flexibility in both 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' or hybrid approaches in a global agreement.

Several other tools and approaches have proposed for apportioning mitigation responsibility based on a variety of metrics. The ERF is however premised on an envelope of metrics for historical contribution to emissions, capability of countries to respond, and development needs, as such outcomes are presented in a range and median of relative fair efforts by Parties. The envelope of metrics could be informed by the various proposals and metrics, including those various parties have presented as part of equity information in their INDCs.

The strength of the ERF further lies in its ability to be applied in different architectural and legal options, as it can be reflected as an integral part of the agreement, however couched in a language that reflect concerns pertaining to prescriptiveness and sovereignty of states. At the other end of the spectrum of options, it could be expressed as an external process through a declaration and run representative external organisations, with a view of providing a moral pull for fairness in the agreement.

In pursuit of a durable agreement, and that present day political realities do not confine the agreement coming into effect in 2020, several options still remain to have enabling provisions for an ERF kind of approach, taking into account options for aggregate application of such a framework, as well as self-application of such a multilaterally agreed framework.
# 1101 - From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: the history of human-environmental interactions

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1101-01

#### Man versus Climate: what we learn from paleodata on the vulnerability of tropical ecosystems

AM. Lézine (1) ; S. Ivory (2) ; F. Bassinot (3) ; C. Hély (4) ; P. Braconnot (5)

(1) LOCEAN, (5) Paris ; (2) Institute at Brown for the Study of Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, United States of America; (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ - UMR8212, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ - UMR8212, France; (4) Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Isem ubm cnrs 5554, ird 226, université de Montpellier, ephe cirad, Montpellier, France; (5) LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

The timing and amplitude of the end of the Holocene humid period and the transition toward of the present day arid/ semi-arid conditions in the northern tropics has been the subject of multiple debates involving many scientists from both model and data communities. Several scenarios have been developed to discuss the abrupt or gradual character of this period and to identify the forcinings at work. These debates have mostly focused on regions under the Atlantic monsoon influence with a specific emphasis on the iconic "Green Sahara". This region is well known to have hosted flourishing prehistoric cultures evidenced by widespread archaeological remains, rock paintings and carvings and abundant tropical faunas during the Holocene. Based on paleohydrological and archaeological evidence, it has been shown that the end of the "Green Sahara" period in northern tropical Africa and the initiation of present day arid conditions in the Sahara Desert were latitudinally time transgressive with the lake phase ending from 6.5 ka (between 26 and 28°N) to 3.5 ka between 20° and 16° N.

This late Holocene climate crisis was widely recorded across the tropics. Here we present a synthesis of paleohydrological and paleoenvironmental data in two specific areas: (1) the dry northern tropics from West Africa to East India (10–30°N) to compare the behavior of the Atlantic and Indian monsoon systems at the northern edge of the present day rain belt and the mechanisms responsible for the dramatic regime shift (humid/arid) (2) West and Central Africa to discuss the impact of this crisis on the natural ecosystems (i.e., the equatorial forest) and the adaptation of human populations.

### K-1101-02

#### Abrupt African Quaternary Climate and Vegetation Change

M. Claussen (1) ; S. Bathiany (2) ; V. Brovking (1) ; S. Egerer (1) ; V. Groner (1) ; C. Reick (1)

(1) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; (2) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

Pronounced changes in African climate, specifically during the transitions between glacial and interglacial, have been found in palaeo climatic archives. Some geological records suggest abrupt climate shifts others, more gradual transitions. Here, we discuss data and simulations aiming at understanding these changes. African climate and vegetation shifts were likely induced by large changes in ice masses, ocean circulation and monsoon dynamics which, in turn, were triggered by variations in the Earth orbit around the sun. Subsequent alteration of meridional insolation gradients. It is shown that abrupt change, or 'tipping, could result from a strong feedback between vegetation and climate at different times at different locations. Moreover, strong feedback in one region can lead to 'induced tipping' in other, seemingly stable regions. However, the diversity of plants can affect the strength of biogeophysical feedback. Regions rich in plant diversity may stabilize the system leading

to more gradual transitions. As alternative hypothesis, abrupt changes may also emerge from intrinsic threshold behaviour of hydrological systems and ecosystems. Finally, an assessment is made to which extent abrupt climate and vegetation changes in this region are likely to happen in the future.

### K-1101-03

#### High-resolution paleoimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

M. Perga (1) ; V. Frossard (2) ; JP. Jenny (1) ; B. Alric (1) ; F. Arnaud (3) ; V. Berthon (1) ; L. Domaizon (1) ; C. Giguet-Covex (3) ; M. Magny (4) ; M. Manca (5) ; A. Marchetto (5) ; L. Millet (4) ; C. Pailles (6) ; C. Pignol (3) ; J. Poulenard (3) ; J. L. Reysse (7) ; F. Rimet (1) ; P. Sabatier (3) ; F. Sylvestre (8) ; V. Verneaux (4)

(1) INRA, UMR CARRTEL, Université Savoie-Mont-Blanc, Thonon les Bains, France; (2) UMR CARRTEL, University of Savoie-Mont Blanc, Chambéry, France; (3) EDYTEM, University of Savoie-Mont Blanc, Chambéry, France; (4) UMR CHRONO-ENVIRONNEMENT, Besançon, France; (5) CNR-ISE, Verbulia-Pallanza, Italy; (6) Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, UMR34 CEREGE, Europôle de l'Arbois, Aix en Provence, France; (7) LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (8) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleoimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed peralpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy and Bourget). The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic and littoral habitats have been reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modelling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories.

All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2°C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations) have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.

### O-1101-01

#### The Mediterranean Basin in a warmer and drier world: what can we learn from the past?

J. Guiot (1) ; D. Kaniewski (2)

(1) CNRS, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) University of Toulouse 3, Ecolab, Toulouse, France

Since the late-nineteenth century, surface temperatures have non-uniformly increased worldwide. The repercussion of the global warming in drylands, such as in the Mediterranean, may become a main source of concern
in a near future, as it is often accompanied by increased droughts, that will severely degrade water supply and quality. History shows that access to water resources has always presented a challenge for societies around the Mediterranean throughout the Holocene (roughly the last 10,000 years). Repeatedly, adverse climate shifts seem to have interacted with social, economic and political variables, exacerbating vulnerabilities in drier regions. We present a reconstruction of the Holocene climate in the Mediterranean Basin using an innovative method based on pollen data and vegetation modeling. The method consists in calculating the inputs of the vegetation model so that the outputs fit the pollen data, using a Bayesian framework. This model inversion is particularly suited to deal with increasing dissimilarities between past millennia and the last century, especially due to a direct effect of CO2 on vegetation. The comparison of far past and last century shows that the intensity of century-scale precipitation fall, amplified by higher temperatures and then evapotranspiration, is unmatched over the last 10,000 years. The recent climatic change is then unprecedented during the last 10,000 years in the Mediterranean Basin. We show also that adverse climate shifts are often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civilizations, particularly in the eastern Basin. The main consequence is that, over the next few decades, Mediterranean societies are likely to be much more critically vulnerable to climate change, than at any dry period of the past.

## O-1101-02

### Long-term ecological dynamics of an alpine lacustrine ecosystem during the Holocene in the French Alps (Lake Petit, 2200 m a.s.l.): regime shift and resilience of algal communities

R. Cartier (1)

(1) Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, UM 34 CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

Multidisciplinary investigations on lake sediments in the Mediterranean Alps enable tracking back the dynamics of lacustrine ecosystems as well as their response to human activities and climate change. Such external forcing may lead to a variety of lake responses, ranging from gradual changes to sudden regime shifts. Sediments from Lake Petit (2200 m a.s.l., Southern French Alps) were particularly relevant for a coupled palaeoecology of landscape and palaeoimnology study providing (1) exceptional richness in preserved bio-indicators and (2) a well-studied context with archaeological, palynological and geochemical data (Brisset et al., 2013).

The lacustrine ecosystem has been reconstructed for the last 5000 years using microfossil analysis (diatoms and Pediastrom) and organic matter composition of sediments (TOC, TN) (Cartier et al., in press):

* From 4800 to 4300 cal. BP, Lake Petit was a stable diatom productive water body dominated by alkaliphilous diatoms. Nutrients were supplied by the chemical weathering of podzols that developed under conifer woodlands. This overall stability was suddenly interrupted at 4200 cal. BP by a major detrital pulse that triggered a drop in diatom productivity and diversity probably climate-linked with the "4.2 ka event";

* From 4100 to 2400 cal. BP, diatom productivity decreased whereas the algae Pediastrom developed. Diatom assemblages subjected to terrigenous inputs from continuous erosion of pasture soils, were more diversified;

* Finally, from 2400 cal. BP to the present day, diatom assemblages reveal a slight acidification and nutrient enrichment of waters concomitant with increasing human pressure in the catchment.

Results obtained at Lake Petit provide a good example of abrupt regime shift in mountain systems in response to rapid climatic event, and further by incremental change triggered by human activities beyond critical threshold.

## O-1101-03

### How humans feed flood: lessons from the past

E. Brisset (1) ; F. Guiter (2) ; C. Miramont (2) ; T. Troussier (2) ; Y. Poher (2) ; E. Anthony (1)

(1) Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, UM 34 CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, UMR 7263 IMBE, Aix-en-Provence, France

Future projections on alpine climate changes suggest that more hydrological extreme can be expected to increase the river flood risk in this region. During mountain-river floods, the amount of sediment rushing down slopes constitutes a threat for society, burring floodplains and devastating people and infrastructures. This hydro- geological phenomenon poses hazards in mountainous areas of the world because they occur on steep slopes having abundant sediment available. By promoting land degradation, human are susceptible to modify the sensitivity of landscapes to natural hazard. As a result, it is crucial to investigate how humans have transformed geomorphic response to river flood on historic timescale, and what this means for our present and future. Here we explore when mountain-river flood are linked to human agencies and to what extent man influence nature.

To address these issues, we examined the geomorphic response during flood events to vegetation cover and land-use changes over the last 7400 years for a large mountain lake of the European Alps, the Lake Allos (44°14'N, 6°42'35''E, 2230 m a.s.l.). Indeed, the sediments of the Lake Allos are a reliable geological archive to reconstruct flood deposits calendar over long time scale as their suspension load produce a distinct detrital layer contrasting to background sedimentation allowing their identification, counting and dating.

Our results show that the progressive increase in human activities (domestic livestock grazing) was not followed by a progressive increase in erosion at Allos. At 2000 cal. BP, the flood record shows an abrupt transition in sediment load and in event frequency which have been multiplied by a factor of four. Since this date, precipitations of higher intensity were able to mobilise and transport larger amount of sediment and precipitations of lesser intensity were more frequently able to trigger sediment inputs.

These results indicate that a threshold in the sensitivity to erosion in the source area were attainment due to several millenia of human activities. These results also argue that humans, by changing sensitivity of landscapes for their activities, have considerably amplified geomorphic responses to natural hazards.

## O-1101-04

### Interdisciplinary and transboundary work to rebuild extreme hydrological events in the Rhine Graben (France - Germany - Switzerland) during the last six centuries (TRANSRISK and TRANSRISK² Programs)

B. Martin (1) ; R. Glaser (2) ; F. Giacona (1) ; N. Holleville (1) ; I. Himmelsbach (2) ; B. Furst (1) ; J. Schönbein (2) ; L. With (1) ; P. Wassmer (3) ; MC. Vitoux (1)

(1) CRESAT, Université de haute - alsace, mulhouse, France; (2) Institut fur Physische Geographie, Albert ludwig university, Freiburg, Germany; (3) Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, Université paris 1 panthéon-sorbonne, paris, France

The franco - german projects TRANSRISK (2008 - 2011) and TRANSRISK² (2014 - 2017) have made it possible to elaborate a comparative chronology of the floods in the area of the Upper Rhine over a long period (1480 - 2015), paying attention to the description of the events characteristics, climatic and human causes, consequences) as well as to the management by those in charge at the local scenes of the risk. The objective was to understand the evolutions and to make comparisons at all scales, particularly between France and Germany. This interdisciplinary work (historians, geographers, anthropologists, sociologists, linguists) has been done by researchers from Germany and France on both side of the Rhine between Basel and Strasbourg. The interest of that
research is twofold:

* It is carried out on a territory which is limited and relatively homogeneous, but divided by borders between three nations, Switzerland, France and Germany, and these two last countries have been three times at war between 1870 and 1945.

* It is really concerning a major stake of territorial management: the prevention of floods, a hazard not well known in its spatio-temporal characteristics on account of the wars and of the many political and administrative changes that this territory has gone through.

The researches in the archives have thus made it possible to establish a database including over 3,000 events related to four major hydrologic units, namely, involving the Rhine, and 13 tributaries on both sides on the border. The most important of those floods have been mapped, classed and compared, revealing at the end a real underestimation of flood risk and the necessity of building new flood scenarios for the future. That's why these research programs are involved into many actions of flood risk management, concerning, for example, memory and risk culture, as well as modelling of extreme events in a historic – progressive approach.

About scenarios, if no pattern of coherent and synchronized evolution appears for all the rivers, the reconstruction of the underlying climatic conditions permits to determine 4 broad types of situations favourable to flooding in that area. And, facing an extreme situation that has already occurred yet in a past not so far away, neither the action of prevention, nor the people are really prepared. That's also the reason why we have developed a website (linked to social networks) to share information on historical floods (www.orrion.fr), even if floods need a real contextualization to try to make them comparable over time and space. But the chronologies demonstrate, on the one hand, the importance of conditions on a local scale, and, on the other hand, all the aggravating or lessening role of human factors. They generate variations in time and space of the vulnerability to floods, which are manifest on different scales, revealing a particular a real "borderline effect" between France and Germany.

What those studies also point out, however, is that the fight against floods has been at all times the manifestation of political will, mostly a reaction to disaster, and thus has been constantly re-defined in any context of important changes in the political structures. This is of course a lesson for the future.

## 1101-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1101-01

#### Learning from the Past to understand the Presente and predict the Future: The Mexican Quaternary Mammal Database

J. Arroyo-Cabrales (1) ; I. Ferrusquia-Villafranca (2) ; E. Johnson (3) ; J. Ruiz-González (2) ; E. Martínez-Hernández (2) ; J. Gama-Castro (2)

(1) INSTITUTUAL NACIONAL DE ANTOPOLOGIA E HISTORIA, LABORATORIO DE ARQUEOZOOLOGIA, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico; (2) UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, Instituto de geologia, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico; (3) MUSEUM OF TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY, Department of anthropology, LUBBOCK, TEXAS, United States of America

The Pleistocene and modern mammal faunas of southern North America partially differ in taxonomic composition, distribution, and physiognomy. The former faunal complexes are part of the ancient landscape in which early people may have interacted. Differences between the Pleistocene and modern faunas have been extensively studied either to climate change, human-impact driven extinctions, or even to catastrophic phenomena, like a meteorite impact. Mexico's Pleistocene mammal record is analyzed in time and space, emphasizing the study of the Ranchoabren Chroinafauna; furthermore, available isotopic data is reported for supporting paleoenvironmental inferences. Palynological and paleosol records are reviewed as an independent check of the interpretation e from mammals. The integration of the information provides the basis for a proposal regarding Late Pleistocene climate change trends across the country, and whether people were involved in

the mammalian community response to climate change in terms of extinction or biogeographic shifting within and outside the country. This approach supports an explanation for the differences between southern North America's Pleistocene and modern mammal faunas. This difference is the combined results of individual species extinctions and range modifications that affected and changed the vertebrate biota physiognomy and taxonomic composition. The available fossil record, however, does not portray this major biogeographic shifting of species in detail due to the lack of associated chronometric data. The analysis of disjunct (i.e., separated from the main range) and of demonstrably recent species may be an alternative to provide greater detail and understanding about the response of individual species to climate change during the Late Pleistocene. The Late Pleistocene mammal record was analyzed by morphotectonic provinces that were grouped into four larger geographic units to examine zoeographic distribution. Variance in distribution (extinctions, extirpations), and environmental conditions inferred from that distribution and variance. Time and space biases exist, with records favoring the Late Pleistocene (Ranchoabren and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), particularly the Basin of México. Nevertheless, biological communities throughout the country experience profound changes in species composition and structure. Such a pattern was due not only to human impact but to the consequences of environmental change, particularly at the end of the Pleistocene. The shifting of ecological and climatic zones was not a simple matter of displacement and range adjustments. Such conditions, among other things, allowed stenotopic species (restricted tolerance to a narrow range of environmental conditions) to extend their range beyond narrow parameters, and eurytopic ones (broad tolerance to a wide range of environmental conditions) to thrive extensively across the country. The coexistence of a highly diverse group of mammals indicates a community structure organized differently than that of today in order to facilitate the complex relationships that coexistence would have required. The disruption of these biotic interactions would have created a coevolutionary disequilibrium situation. The available information on Mexico's Pleistocene mammal, palynological, and paleosol records allows only broad trends to be discerned in the complex environmental-biota interplay, and what role, if any, early people played in extinction. A critical need exists to fill in the time and space need in these records. Solid radiocarbon chronologies need to be developed that can anchor the various records and provide the framework for more in-depth analyses of environmental changes and individual species response. In a focused radiocarbon dating program, TMVB province and mammoth would be a reasonable target. The most concentrated research has been in this province and mammoth is the most ubiquitous Late Pleistocene mammal. Research needs to continue and expand in the other provinces in order to have a representative sample across the country. While research in the Northern provinces has been most fruitful in terms of mammal-human interactions during the latest Pleistocene, the Gulf Coastal Plains (Eastern province) has great potential in illuminating that interaction as well. México's record is critical to understanding the continent-wide affects of Pleistocene climatic changes on plants, animals, and humans. This initial synthesis forms a first-order interpretation and basis for future research directions.

### P-1101-02

#### Vulnerability of North Eastern region of India - a global biodiversity hotspot - due to anthropogenic threats and climate change process

S. Baruah (1) ; N. Hazarika (2) ; K. Mazumdar (3)

(1) Independent Consultant, Guwahati, Assam, India; (2) State Project Officer GOI-UNDP programme, - Assam state disaster management authority, Guwahati, India; (3) Programme Officer, Response, Assam state disaster management authority, Guwahati, India

Climate change poses major threats to all levels of biodiversity from genes to landscapes while local level changes within landscape affects its composition and abundance. The North Eastern region (here after referred as NER) India refers to the easternmost region of India consisting of the contiguous eight sister states. The region is biogeographically and culturally distinct from rest of India and has strong ethnic and cultural ties with East Asia
and Southeast Asia. The NER of India is expected to be greatly affected by climate change as well as increasing anthropogenic threats on biodiversity because of their geo-ecological fragility, strategic location vis-à-vis the Eastern Himalayan landscape, trans-boundary river basins and the inherent socio-economic instabilities.

Analysis of forest cover statistics of NER of India for last two years is in 1991 to 2011. It reveals that there was an overall growth of forest cover of 1274 KM² in the region. But individual state level data reflects loss of forest cover in majority of the states during the first decade (1991-2001), the state of Nagaland being the highest (–976 KM²) followed by Mizoram (–908 KM²), Manipur (–732KM2) and Arunachal (–709KM2) and Meghalaya (–273KM2). Seismically NER is one of the six most active regions of the world, the other five being Mexico, Taiwan, California, Japan and Turkey. The region has experienced 18 large earthquakes (M=7) during the last hundred years including the great earthquakes of Shillong (1897, M=8.7) and Assam–Tibet border (1950, M=8.7).

The state of Assam in NE India represents highly flood-prone region characterized by severe hazards of floods. With more than 40 percent of its land surface susceptible to flood damage, the total flood prone area in the Brahmaputra valley, about 3.2 Mha, the Brahmaputra valley had experienced major floods in 1954, 1962, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1978, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2004. According to census statistics 1991–2011 the population in all the states grew by approximately 30 percent between first decade and continued with 20 percent in the next decade. This rapid increase in population density in the region is responsible for large scale destitution and alteration of forest areas, overexploitation of biodiversity resources. While reviewing the agricultural statistics for 17 years period that is 1989–2006, it has been observed that there is decrease of gross cropped area in many states particularly the Assam being the highest with about 60% followed by Tripura with about 45%, Arunachal Pradesh 25% and Manipur 10%. This is reflected in the general trend of decrease in par capital availability of agricultural land. The trend of mean fall rain activities observed in the region for four decades from the year 1968 to 2008 which shows distinct local variations. During Pre monsoon season from 1990 to 2008 there is a decreasing trend of rainfall with 1996 and 2008 is lowest. This indicates local dry conditions or draught. Similarly 1977 and 2001 shows the very high rain fall indicating more storms, floods and associated disasters. In monsoon season there is a general trend of high rainfall activities with 1988, 2005 being highest indicating major rain events in the region and property damage. The trend of atmospheric temperature of the region for the pre monsoon season is found to be going high during from the year 1990 to 2008 indicating prolonged warmer period coupled with decreasing fall rain observed during the season. Again in the monsoon it continues with the rising trend over the past decades clearing indicating increasing warming process may be with response to global warming process. Looking at the data of the buildup areas for the years 1989 and 2006, there is enormous rise in build up area due to urbanization in all the NER states. The exploration of fossil fuels viz oil, gas and coal industries in the region is increasing the air, water and land pollution and thereby increasing the vulnerabilities of the biodiversity and ecosystems from these anthropogenic activities coupled with the climate change process.

P-1101-03

Impact of global SST gradients on the
Mediterranean runoff changes across the
Plio-Pleistocene transition

F. Colleoni (1); A. Cherchi, (1); S. Masina, (1); C. Brierley, (2)
(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici,
Bologna, Italy; (2) University College of London, Department
of Geography, London, United Kingdom

This work explores the impact of the development of global meridional and zonal SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff variability during the Plio-Pleistocene transition, about 3 Ma. By means of a stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model, we simulate the separate impact of extra-tropical and equatorial SST cooling on the Mediterranean runoff. Results show that total annual mean Pliocene Mediterranean runoff is about 40% larger than during the pre-industrial period due to more increased extra-tropical specific humidity. As a

consequence of a weakened and extended Hadley cell, Pliocene northwest Africa hydrological network produces a discharge 30 times larger than today. Our results support the conclusion that during the Pliocene, the Mediterranean water deficit was more reduced than today due to a larger river discharge. While the cooling of equatorial SST does not imply significant changes on the Pliocene Mediterranean hydrological budget, the extra-tropical SST cooling increases the water deficit due to a decrease in precipitation and runoff and river discharge from this area reduces to pre-industrial level. From our simulations there are evidence that the modern atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean started to develop at least 3 Ma. The main teleconnections acting upon the Mediterranean area, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and the "monsoon-desert" mechanism during summer are already at work in our Pliocene simulations. Finally, our results also suggest that in a climate state significantly warmer than today, changes of the Hadley circulation could potentially lead to increased in water resources in northwest Africa.

P-1101-04

Mid-Holocene drought impact on the active
Lazun rock glacier in the Italian Alps

JN. Haas (1) ; B. Dietre (1) ; M. Hirnsperger (2) ;
D. Bressan (2) ; C. Walser (3) ; I. Hajdas (4) ; K. Lang (5) ;
V. Mair (5) ; U. Nickus (6) ; D. Reidl (1) ; H. Thies (7) ;
D. Tonidandel (5) ; K. Krainer (2)
(1) University of Innsbruck, Botany, Innsbruck, Austria; (2)
University of Innsbruck, Geology, Innsbruck, Austria; (3)
University of Bamberg, Archaeology, Bamberg, Germany;
(4) ETH Zuerich, Physics, Zuerich, Switzerland; (5) Office
for Geology, Building Materials Testing, Autonomous
Province of Bolzano, Italy, Bolzano, Italy; (6) University of
Innsbruck, Meteorology, Innsbruck, Austria; (7) University of
Innsbruck, Ecology, Innsbruck, Austria

The study of a 40 m-long ice and debris core from the rock glacier Lazun in the southern Otztal Alps (South Tyrol, Italy) revealed a mid-Holocene drought impact around 4000 cal. BP. Plant macrofossils embedded in the ice indicated the overall formation of the rock glacier around 10'300 cal. BP with two superimposed rock glacier lobes persisting active since then. The inferred age-depth model implied very stable sedimentation conditions for snow, ice and rock debris throughout the Holocene, with the exception of a mid-Holocene drought event. This multi-centennial drought period around 4000 cal. BP was probably related to reduced snow accumulation, prevailing warm climate, and general Mediterranean/Central European climatic reorganization. The palaeoecological study of the ice/debris samples and the quantification of pollen, cryptogam spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal particles as well as plant and animal macrofossils allowed tracing the former climatically and anthropogenically induced vegetation changes at alpine altitudes (above 2600 m a.s.l.).

P-1101-05

Orbital, solar, volcanic and anthropogenic
forcings in the Holocene glacier fluctua-
tions

O. Solomina (1); D. Hodgson (2); A. Nesje (3); L Owen (4); H. Wanner (5); G. Wiles (6); N. Young (7); R. Bradley (8); S. Ivy-Ochs (9); V. Jomell (10); A. Mackintosh (11)

(1) Institute of Geography RAS, Glaciology, Moscow, Russia;

(2) British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom;

(3) University of Bergen, Department of earth science, Bergen, Norway, University of Cincinnati, Department of geology, Cincinnati, United States of America; (5) Institute of Geography and Oescher Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland; (6) The College of Wooster, Department of geology, Wooster, United States of America; (7) Columbia University, Lamont–doherty earth observatory, Palisades, United States of America; (8) University of Massachusetts, Department of geosciences, Amherst, United States of America; (9) Institute of Particle Physics, Zurich, Switzerland; (10) Cnrs, Physical geography, Meudon, France; (11) Victoria University Wellington, Antarctic research centre, Wellington, New Zealand

Glacier fluctuations integrate both temperature and precipitation, and these signals are often a challenge to separate. However, in the end of 20th–early 21st centuries
the glaciars demonstrate a coherent pattern of uniform retreat, despite the great difference in their morphology, sizes, location and other characteristics. For our global overview of Holocene glacier fluctuations we used 198 time series of Holocene glacier fluctuations based on 14C, TCN, OSL, tree rings, sediments from proglacial lakes, and speleothems. We compared the glacier variations with orbital, solar and volcanic forcings and considered the scale and the rate of modern glacier retreat in the context of Holocene natural variability. The general trends of Holocene glacier fluctuations in the extra-tropical areas of the Northern Hemisphere are broadly coherent and agree with the dynamics of the Northern and mountain tree lines. Overall summer temperature, forced by orbitally-controlled insolation, is the most probable driver of increasingly more expansive advances through the Holocene in these regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, glaciers in New Zealand appear to follow the orbital trend, which is opposite to the Northern Hemisphere (less expansive advances through the Holocene). Glacier fluctuations in monsoonal Asia and in Southern South America generally do not correlate with the orbital trends and instead responding to more high resolution forcings in these regions. Glacier advances during Neoglacial clustered at 4.4-4.2, 3.8-3.4, 3.3-2.8, 2.6, 2.3-2.1, 1.5-1.4, 1.2-1.0, 0.7-0.5 ka BP correspond to general coolings in the North Atlantic. Some of these episodes coincide with multidecadal periods of low solar activity, but is unclear what mechanism might link small changes in irradiance to widespread glacier fluctuations. One cluster of glaciars advances at 1.7-1.6 ka does not fit this pattern and probably corresponds to a very strong volcanic eruption (232 CE). Thus, no single driving mechanism explains all ice expansions. The rate and the global character of glacier retreat in the 20th-early 21st centuries appears to be unusual in the context of Holocene glacier changes, however retreating glaciers in most regions are still more extensive today than they were in the Early and/or Mid-Holocene. Since contemporary retreat is occurring during an interval of orbital forcing that is favorable for glacier growth, a combination of factors other than orbital forcing, primarily strong anthropogenic is likely in effect. Due to the delayed reaction of glaciers to climatic changes, retreat will continue into future decades. In some cases the large changes inferred from glacier records are more pronounced than reconstructions based on higher resolution records and models driven by solar forcing. This observation may indicate that other proxies and model results tend to underestimate the amplitude of Holocene climate change.

P-1101-06

## Monsoonal changes recorded by Lake Chad sedimentary archives during the Neolithic

F. Sylvestre (1) ; P. Amaral (1) ; P. Deschamps, (1) ; N. Waldmann, (2) ; K. Tachikawa, (1) ; D. Delanghe, (1) ; N. Thouveny, (1) ; E. Bard, (1) ; M. Garcia, (1) ; JC. Mazur, (1) ; JC. Dounmang, (3) ; G. Menot, (1) ; F. Rostek, (1)

(1) Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, College de France, Cerege, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) University of Haifa, Department of marine geosciences, Haifa, Israel; (3) University of N'Djamena, Department of geology, N'Djamena, Chad

During the last 20,000 years, Northern Africa experienced dramatic climatic and subsequent environmental changes, characterized by a succession of contrasted period. It is now well established that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was dryer followed by a wetter middle Holocene, punctuated by dry events. The numerous Holocene paleolake records document a fairly consistent pattern of a moister early-Holocene resulting in a "Green Sahara" followed by a general aridification ca. 5000 years ago, which still persist today.

However, despite the number of detailed reconstructions increasing during the last decades, a coherent history of the climatic changes has not been yet elucidating. Pronounced differences in the apparent timing and amplitude of these hydrological changes inferred from truncated outcrops point to regional climatic variability fluctuations as well as site-specificities in times and could have biased the evolution of water balance. Increasing the numbers of observations and reconstruction contribute to arise regional patterns, and mend complex the identification of the climatic signal.

In this paleoclimatic history, one of the main attractive phase, still debated, is the end of the mid-holocene humid period. The increasingly arid conditions after 5000 years forced Neolithic Societies to improve their organization in order to optimise natural resources, in particular freshwater supplies, and help to explain the rise of civilizations that flourished along main rivers such as Nile, Euphrate or Indus. This climatic change corresponds in time with the gradual modulation of the insolation, whereas data from marine records evidenced that environmental changes could be more rapid and abrupt than expected by the sinusoidal insolation curve. But on the continent, the data tell us another history. Lake Yaa record collected in the northern Chad in Sahara describe show that vegetation and dust fluxes changed gradually, in concert with the slowly weakening monsoon.

In this context, we present new records with original data depicting past tropical hydroclimate history since the LGM from the key, but yet poorly investigated, Lake Chad. In Northern Africa, Lake Chad appeared as one of the main emblematic site during this period of time. Reaching 10 times its surface area, e.g. 340,000 km2 compared to today, e.g. 14,000 km2, it was one of the main water tower during this period. Almost exclusively fed by the Chari-Logone river system that originates from the wet tropics, where precipitation is directly controlled by the West African Monsoon and the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, this particular configuration makes this terminal lake a very sensitive indicator of climate and the environment evolution of north-temperate Africa at various time-scales. Then, here we present continuous records from past environmental and climatic changes during the last 20,000 years. We highlight coherent monsoonal changes, compared with those from the closest oceanic basins, e.g. tropical Atlantic and Indian oceans, as well as at the scale of the continental tropical belt. Moreover, drastic hydrological changes are recorded, occurring in few centuries, matching with North Atlantic cold spells indicating that Northern African climate could switch from a state to another, quickly, which drive in consequence, ecosystem and human adaptations.

# 1102 - From past to future Climate Changes

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1102-01

#### Past climate event suggests severe and long-lasting consequences of fossil fuel burning

RE. Zeebe (1)

(1) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Oceanography, Hawaii, United States of America

Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources have reached a record high of ~10 Pg C/y in 2014. Due to uncertainties in climate system feedbacks, the impact of the rapid carbon release on the Earth system is difficult to predict.

Hence geologic analogues from past transient climate changes are urgently sought after to guide future climate assessments. Throughout the past 66 Myr, the currently known climate aberration with the highest carbon release rate is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) - an event characterized by future-relevant total carbon release/peak warming and a surprisingly long duration of at least 50,000 years. Based on time-series analysis of stable carbon/oxygen isotope records and carbon cycle/climate modeling, we determine the initial carbon release during the PETM onset. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than ~1 Pg C/y. Given currently available records, it follows that the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 Myr at least an order of magnitude. Future ecosystem disruptions will hence likely exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM. Moreover, unforeseeable future responses of the climate system are possible as the Earth system has effectively entered an era of no-analogue state.
# Understanding a warming world by studying the Pliocene

## A. Haywood (1)

(1) University of Leeds, UK national centre for atmospheric science, Leeds, United Kingdom

The investigation of warm intervals of the Pliocene epoch has intensified dramatically over the last 10 years. The reasons for this are varied but undoubtedly the availability of progressively higher temporal and spatial resolution environmental records is a key driver. These reconstructions are providing new insights into environmental change during the Pliocene, which enable us to investigate local and regional climate response to an atmospheric CO2 concentration akin to the modern. Furthermore, the use of Climate and Earth System Models in a Pliocene context has been encouraged as a means to test the predictive ability of models, and to understand climate processes generating regional patterns of environmental change.

This presentation will summarise the current state of knowledge of the Pliocene Earth System derived from proxy and model outputs. In particular it will focus on key aspects of the climate system such as the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2, ice sheet and sea-level change, surface temperature change and polar amplification, the hydrological cycle, ocean circulation and the monsoons.

Challenges in environmental reconstruction and modelling will be highlighted with a summary of emerging initiatives, which are designed to enhance the ability to use warm intervals of the Pliocene as a mechanism to understand the dynamics and drivers of a warming world.

# Climate change and variability: lessons from the past

## P. Braconnot (1)

(1) LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Past climate models provide a unique opportunity to evaluate model performance outside the range of observed climate variability. They provide test cases of our understanding of climate feedbacks and thresholds that are not observed in modern variability and that could lead to major changes in the future. Because of this, past climate simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years BP), thermid-Holocene (6000 years BP) and the last 1000 years have been considered as part of the lastmost-model CMIIP/PMIP3 experiments (Taylor et al. 2012, Braconnot et al. 2012), so as to put interпerspective future climate changes and provide complementary model evaluation. Using the resultsof these simulations and of mode-data comparisons, this presentation will provide an overview of feedback analysis of climate sensitivity and feedbacks, hydrological cycle in the tropical regions, and interannual climate variability. It will highlight the new possibilities offered by the modeling of thebiochemical cycles and tracers or by the high resolution records that provide information onter annual to multi-decadal variability. Finally, it will discuss the constraints these analyses bring onthe credibility of climate model as well as the new questions that will be addressed in the next phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).

# Linking past, present and future climate change to adaptation in the African Sahel

## A. Giannini (1)

(1) Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America

The semi-arid African Sahel has received unique attention in the climate science community and beyond since inception of persistent drought at the end of the 1960s. This attention is reflected in the efforts of Working Groups 1 and 2, summarized in the Assessments Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change going back to the first, published in 1990. Initially, drought in the Sahel was attributed to rapid population growth leading

to mismanagement of land resources. The hypothesis of a positive bio-geophysical feedback tied human-induced baring of the soils to a reduction of precipitation, which further exacerbated the loss in vegetation cover [Charney 1975, in Q J Roy Meteor Soc]. In the more recent ~10 years the climate of the Sahel has again emerged as the focus of active research, this time as a possible «canary in the coal mine» for anthropogenic climate change. Advances in climate science have first conclusively tied persistent drought to subtle shifts in the surface temperature of the global oceans [Giannini et al. 2003], «freeing farmers of blame» in the drought, then partially attributed these shifts to the influence of greenhouse gases and aerosols [Held et al. 2005, in Proc Nat Acad Sci; Booth et al. 2012, in Nature]. However, in the meantime the region has partially recovered from drought, and is experiencing an increased frequency of flooding [Tall 2010, in Proc Env Sci, underlined, to the extent that it has been documented, by a subtle increase in the intensity of precipitation (Lodouin et al. 2013, in Env Develop; Alhassane et al. 2013, in Secheresse)].

Here I present a novel interpretation for the role of the oceans in affecting precipitation change in this region: Sahel rainfall responds to the relative temperature of the North Atlantic, source of the moisture that converges in the region, with respect to the global tropical oceans. The temperature of the global tropical oceans, which is communicated first vertically through deep convection, then laterally by atmospheric waves [Chou and Neelin 2004, in J Climate; Held and Soden 2006, in J Climate; Sobel et al. 2001, in J Atmos Sci, 2007, in J Atmos Sci, Sobel et al. 2012, in J Atmos Sci, 2013, in Env Res Lett]. This contribution aims to frame the physical context in which to discuss societal response to drought, and its applicability to adaptation to current variability and future change.

This interpretation consistently explains past drought, partial recovery, and the current alternation of wet and dry states on time scales from daily to interannual. It also sheds light on the uncertainty in future projections, relating them to the uncertainty in patterns of sea surface temperature change [Giannini et al. 2013, in Env Res Lett]. This contribution aims to frame the physical context in which to discuss societal response to drought, and its applicability to adaptation to current variability and future change.

# Long-term evolution of feedbacks in a GCM run to equilibrium

## A. Hannart (1); J.L. Dufresne, (2); C. Li, (3); R. Knutti (4)

(1) CNRS, IFEAIC, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (2) CNRS, Lmd, Paris, France; (3) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany; (4) ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a common measure of Earth's global temperature response to radiative forcing. To first order, Earth's radiative imbalance decreases linearly with global temperature anomaly when a step forcing is applied. ECS is thereby assumed to be constant and inversely related to the linear feedback coefficient (λ). The validity of this linear approximation has been increasingly questioned recently, with several studies consistently showing that feedback are state- and time-dependent. But these deviations from linearity significantly shift the final equilibrium state actually reached by a CMI as compared to the linear extrapolation based on the first few centuries given by ECS, or even imply a bifurcation leading to a vastly different equilibrium? What are the dominant physical processes that explain them? Here we analyze the evolution of feedbacks over a six thousand years-long integration to equilibrium of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/PMIP under atmospheric CO2 quadrupling - the only variable that can be controlled by a state-of-the-art GCM available to our knowledge. Consistent with previous studies, the global feedback $\lambda$changes significantly over the entire integration, but more surprisingly its evolution is markedly non-monotonic. Indeed, while $\lambda$ progressively decreases (1.5 down to 0.4 Wm$^{-2}$K$^{-1}$) during the first thousand years of the run - which is the period partly analyzed by most previous studies and hence yields consistent findings - we observe a steep increase in $\lambda$ (0.4 down to 1.8 Wm$^{-2}$K$^{-1}$) throughout the remaining five thousand years, until the equilibrium is reached. This evolution is predominantly driven by: (i) a steeper
and steeper increase in cloud feedback over the entire
simulation which is mainly associated to decreasing low
level cloud fractions over high latitude oceanic areas;
combined with (ii) a non-monotonous evolution of water
feedback characterized by a moderate increase during the
first thousand years followed by a steeper and steeper
decrease until equilibrium, both being mainly associated
to changes in relative humidity over tropical land areas
and near the surface. We discuss implications of these
results for the above two questions: while the assumption
of a linear global feedback may be a useful approximation
in energy balance models for the century time scale
temperature response, we argue that its validity has not
been demonstrated to represent the final equilibrium. In
particular, our results suggest that a change in the sign
of X on the very long term, thereby implying a bifurcation
potentially leading to a vastly different equilibrium, can
not be discarded, given that the relevant processes are
poorly understood.

O-1102-03

Past and future aerosol emission reduc-
tions and their impact on Arctic climate

HC. Hansson (1); VD. Varma, (2); NJA. Acosta (3); Ø. Seland (4); T. Iversen (5)

(1) Stockholm University, Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm, France; (2) Stockholm University, Meteorology, Stockholm, Sweden; (3) Stockholm University, Environmental science and analytical science, Stockholm, Sweden; (4) Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research, Oslo, Norway; (5) Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research, Oslo, Norway

INTRODUCTION

Large changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of
global aerosol emissions have occurred during the 20th
century. It is not clear how the Arctic climate has been
affected by changes in global and European aerosol
emissions. As more and more countries adapt different
strategies to reduce air pollution, it is important to
examine how this will affect not only the top-of-the-
atmosphere radiative forcing but rather the climate and
other parameters important for society. Of particular
relevance for the Arctic are the reductions in sulfate
emissions from industrial activities, domestic heating,
and power production that have taken place in Europe
during the latest decades. These changes provide an
opportunity to in detail by available observations study
how regional emissions over Europe have affected the
global and specifically the Arctic climate. This to bring
more confidence in projections of how future air pollution
emissions will affect especially the Arctic climate.

METHODS

Transient climate simulations over the industrial period (1850 to present) from the Norwegian Earth system model NorESM (Kirkevåg et al., 2013) with different emission levels have been conducted and analysed. The simulated aerosol number size distribution and mass composition have been evaluated versus in-situ observations from different European measurement networks. The analysis is focused on Europe and the Arctic and how surface radiative flux and temperature changes relate to different emission scenarios. We present results from a comparison between the actual estimated emissions 1850 to 2005 NorESM simulations with simulations using constant 1980 SOx emissions for Europe while all other are the actual emissions. We also present climate projections, 2015 - 2080 with global emission of sulfur, organic and black carbon according to Current Legislation (CLE) or Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR), assuming CO2 emission according to RCP4.5.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulations show a significant change in the Arctic
climate as a result of the past air quality regulation in
Europe giving strongly decreased SOx emissions especially
during the 1990-ties. However the effect in Europe is quite
smaller. Comparing with the actual temperature change in
the Arctic implies that the sulphate aerosol contribute with
about 20% of the temperature increase in the Arctic. In
the projections with CO2 emissions according to RCP4.5
the future temperature will increase in the Arctic will be
about 3 K but with in an air pollution emission reductions
according to MFR it will be about 4 K.

These is only results from simulations with one model

and have to be corroborate by other models but also
by detailed studies to identify the key processes and
evaluation of the models towards observations. However
our results strongly imply that a continued strong
temperature increase will prevail for many years forward.

REFERENCES

Kirkevåg, A., T. Iversen, Ø. Seland, C. Hoose, J. E. Kristjanson, R. Stouffels, S. Meekers, G. Schaan, M. Grieseller, E. D. Nilsson, and M. Schulz (2013). AeroSim: Climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model - NorESM1-M. Geophysical Model Development, 6, 207-244.

O-1102-04

Deep past carbon cycle and climate crises

G. Ramstein (1); Y. Donnadieu (1); Y. Goderis (2)

(1) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) CNRS, Géosciences environnement toulouse, Toulouse, France

Deep past carbon cycle and climate crises

Relationships between carbon cycle and climate are
intensively studied for ongoing global warming. There
are also in the geological past of the Earth, key periods
when huge changes of atmospheric carbon led to drastic
cooling: Snowball episodes at Neoproterozoic [800-
600 Ma]. Another period of interest is the so-called
«terrestrialization» of the continents which also led to
a large decrease of atmospheric carbon but without
producing an important cooling during Late Devonian
[379-359 Ma]. For the first time period, we will show how
tectonics-climate perturbation altered sufficiently the
carbon cycle and the climate to produce a long lasting
global glaciation. It is also the same carbon cycle that allow
to escape from a frozen planet. For the second time period
Late Devonian also corresponds to a drastic decrease of
atmospheric CO2 associated with vegetation development
on continents but paradoxically this decrease doesn't
produce a cooling of the Earth because mainly of albedo
feedback.

We shall discuss how these deregulations developed and
which processes associated with atmospheric carbon-
tectonics - biosphere and water cycle may explain the
onset and the decay of such crises.

O-1102-05

Causes and consequences of mid-Holocene
aridity in mid-continental Eurasia in the
CMIP5 simulations

S. Harrison (1); K. Izumi, (2); G. Li, (3); P. Bartlein, (4)

(1) University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; (2)
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Paris,
France; (3) Macquarie University, Department of biological
sciences, North Ryde, Australia; (4) University of oregon,
Department of geography, Eugene, United States of America

The extent of mid-continental drying in Eurasia during
the mid-Holocene is an example of a persistent regional
mismatch between models and observations. The CMIP5
mid-Holocene simulations show drier conditions in
Eurasia, particularly between 45°-60° N, whereas several
types of palaeoenvironmental data systematically show
that the region was wetter than today. At the same
time, the models show significantly higher summer
temperature, whereas observations indicate that summers
were cooler. The simulated temperature bias can be up
to -4-6 °C. Temperature biases in the CMIP5 historical
(20th century) simulations are linked to systematic biases
in evapotranspiration. Diagnosis of the surface energy
balance in the mid-Holocene CMIP5 experiments shows
that the simulated increase in summer temperatures
results from the simulation of too-low evaporative cooling
because of water limitation. Surface water- and energy-
balance interactions play a similar role in mediating the
temperature response in CMIP5 future simulations.
O-1102-06

## Climate Change in the Past 2000 Years and its impact on society on the Tibetan Plateau

T. Yao (1); X. Yang (1); P. Yao (1); N. Wang (2); L. Tian (1); B. Xu (1); H. Zhao (1); J. Gao (1); DR. Joswiak (1)

(1) Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of tibetan plateau research, Beijing, China; (2) Chinese Academy of Sciences, Cold and arid regions environmental and engineering research institute, Beijing, China

Temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the past 2000 years is reconstructed using stable oxygen isotope in five ice core records on the TP, including Dunde ice core in northeast TP, Gulija ice core in northwest TP, Dasuopu ice core in south TP and the Puruogangri and Tanggula ice cores in central TP. The integration of those ice core records reveals the synchronicity of large-scale climate changes in Tibet, such as the warming in the 7th century, 12-13th centuries and the present, and the cooling in the 3rd century, 16th century, and 19th century. We referred to human historical documentary record since A.D. 620 for possible responses of social, economic and military activities to climate changes. By focusing especially on human activities and social development directly determined or indirectly influenced by climate from historical documentary record, we quantified those events into five aspects, i.e., basic resources, economic development, military strength, national coherence, and cultural and religious development, to study social development on the TP by A.D. 1900. Our results show a close Tibetan societal response to climate changes in the past 2000 years, particularly before the modern ages.

O-1102-07

## AMOC Evolution in the Last Deglaciation: Forcing Mechanism, Thermo-haline Instability and Implications

Z. Liu (1)

(1) University of Wisconsin-Madison, Atospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, United States of America

The forcing mechanism and instability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last 21,000 years is studied using transient simulations under realistic forcings in the NCAR-CCSM3. First, in addition to the strong influence of the AMOC, we further enforced by melting water fluxes, the background AMOC is determined by two opposing effects: the intensification by the rising atmospheric CO2 and the reduction by the retreating ice sheet, both through the sea ice feedbacks in the North Atlantic. As a result, the AMOC strength does not change significantly after the deglaciation. Second, the model AMOC exhibits a monostable behavior. This monostable AMOC, which has been observed in almost all state-of-the-art coupled general climate models (CGCMs), is likely to be caused by a systematic model bias that is associated with the tropical bias, the resulted freshwater flux and AMOC freshwater export. This AMOC over-stabilization bias needs to be improved in these CGCMs to allow for a credible projection of AMOC evolution in the future.

O-1102-08

## Different vegetation responses to climatic droughts in the Mediterranean basin

C. Gouveia (1); R. Trigo (1); S. Beguería, (2); SM. Vicent-Serrano (3)

(1) Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal; (2) Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, Csic, Zaragoza, Spain; (3) Instituto Pirenaco de Ecologia, Zaragoza, Spain

A number of recent studies have identified a significant increase in the frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin. Climatic droughts are relatively frequent in the Mediterranean region as a consequence of the large interannual variability of precipitation, and long periods with low precipitation. Several studies characterized climatic droughts in the Mediterranean region, emphasizing the spatial and temporal complexity of this phenomenon.

The use of remote sensing data holds a great potential since it allows analyzing large regions with a consistent dataset with high spatial and temporal resolution. Several studies analyzed the impact of droughts on the natural vegetation and crops using remote sensing data. The majority of the studies about drought impacts on the vegetation cover considered droughts as a precipitation shortage regarding the normal climatology. Nevertheless, recent drought episodes in the frame of a warming scenario have shown that large evapotranspiration rates associated to high temperatures are equally relevant and may trigger severe droughts. Therefore, in the present scenario of temperature rise it is necessary to acknowledge the impacts of both reduction in precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration rates.

The aim of the present work is to analyze in detail the impacts of drought episodes on vegetation in the Mediterranean basin behavior using NDVI data from (GIMMS) for entire Mediterranean basin (1982-2006) and the multi-scale drought index (the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)).

Correlation maps between fields of monthly NDVI and SPEI for at different time scales (1-24 months) were computed in order to identify the regions and seasons most affected by droughts. Affected vegetation presents high spatial and seasonal variability, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. During February 50% of the affected pixels corresponded to a time scale of 6 months, while in November the most frequent time scale corresponded to 3 months, representing more than 40% of the affected region. Around 20% of grid points corresponded to the longer time scales (18 and 24 months), persisting fairly constant along the year. The strongest control of droughts was obtained during February and May for drier clusters in areas with low water balance values. Accordingly the wet and cold seasons present low water balance values that implies shorter time scales over dry cluster, whereas high water balance values implies longer time scales over Central and Atlantic clusters.

The occurrence of most affected areas over regions presenting low water balance values highlights the strong dependence of vegetation with climate variability. Furthermore, this conclusion is reinforced by the strong control of drought on vegetation activity observed for Arid and Steppe clusters located over areas with higher absolute values of water balance. The projected increase in frequency of drought episodes emphasize the need for an early warning drought system covering the entire Mediterranean basin. However, our results highlight that the requirements shown for large vegetation types, season of the year and relative location of the regional sector considered. We are confident that our results will provide a useful tool for drought management plans and will play a relevant role in mitigating the impact of such episodes within the context of climate change.

O-1102-09

## Observed large leads of Atlantic circulation slowdowns with respect to tropical precipitation events: A challenge for current climate models

C. Waelbroeck (1); P. Burckel, (1); S. Pichat, (2); J. Gherardi (3); H. Arz, (4); J. Lippold, (5); T. Dokken, (6); F. Thil, (1)
(1) LSCE/IPSL - CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) LGL-TPE, Ecole normale supérieure de Lyon, Lyon, France; (3) Ifremer, DAEI, Issy les Molineaux Cedex, Cedex, France; (4) Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Rostock, Germany; (5) Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of bern, Bern, Switzerland; (6) BCCR, University of bergen, Bergen, Norway

Marine cores MD09-3257 and GeoB3910 were retrieved off northern Brazil at ~4S, 36'W and 2340 m water depth; their chronology is derived from a corrected and calibrated radiocarbon-based age-depth model. As in other marine cores from this area, XRF measurements show marked Ti/ Ca and Fe/ Ca peaks over the last glacial that have been interpreted to reflect increased terrigenous input due to increased precipitation and runoff from the adjacent continent. These terrigenous peaks can be shown to be coeval with precipitation events recorded in speleothem d18O records from South America in the 0-30° latitudinal band, which are considered to reflect southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone during Greenland stadials.
New sedimentary 231Pa/230Th measurements from core MD09-3257 show that large changes took place in the overlying water mass flow rate over the last glacial in conjunction with millennial precipitation events. Furthermore, our C. wuellerstorfi δ13C data indicate that water ventilation was reduced at ~2340 m in the tropical Atlantic during Greenland stadials, in phase with the reduction in water mass flow revealed by Pa/Th data. Our results thus demonstrate that major slowdowns of the Daily Meridional Overturning Circulation (SOC) upper circulation cell took place during Greenland stadials.

Because both rainfall events and changes in ocean circulation are recorded in the same sediment core, we were able to reliably determine that the AMOC started to slow down 1420 ± 250 and 690 ± 180 (1σ) y before the onset of two large South American precipitation events associated with Heinrich stadials.

Our data open new prospects concerning causal mechanisms of rapid climate changes. More specifically, current climate models simulate a rapid response of the tropical climate to AMOC changes, whereas our results indicate that there is a large lead of AMOC changes with respect to tropical climate changes. Therefore, more work, both data- and model-wise, is necessary in order to achieve a better understanding of the highly nonlinear behavior of the climate system observed in climate archives and ensure that comprehensive climate models used for climate projections capture the full extent of ocean-ice sheets-atmosphere interactions.

## 1102-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1102-01

#### Impact of Climate Change on Onset, Amount and Length of Rainy Season over West Africa as Simulated by COORDEX Models

**E. Adefisan (1)**

(1) Federal University of Technology, Akure, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The onset of rainfall signals the commencement of viable rainfed agricultural activities and it is therefore very essential for planning farm operations in West Africa. Impact of climate change on the rainfall onset dates (RODs), rainfall cessation dates (RCDs) and hence the length of rainy seasons (LRS) as well as the rainfall amount during the season over West Africa is therefore a welcome idea. The data used was from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Exercise (CORDEX-Africa) and comprises of daily rainfall for four of the participating regional climate models of scenario A1b of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The simulated data was divided into two with 1981-2000 serving as present and 2031-2050 representing the near future. RODs was found to be delayed by two weeks (14 days) over most part of West Africa and a delay of three weeks (21 days) over most part of Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, western flank of Cote d'Ivoire and some parts of Mali. RCDs were seen to be earlier in the near future than present in most part of West Africa. LRS which is the difference between the RODs and RCDs show that there is a reduction of between 15 and 25 days over the areas mentioned earlier. There was an extension of about 15days over other areas between the coastline of West Africa and 150N. The annual rainfall amount shows an increase over all high grounds of West Africa and the immediate environment as well as the coastline of West Africa. Apart from these, most West African sub-region experiences reduction in the annual rainfall amount ranging from 120mm to about 300mm. On a close look of rainfall amount from June to September (JJAS) rainfall amount, it follows the same trend as that of the annual amount but with more significant reduction in the near future. From coast to about 60N, there is an average reduction of between 0.2 to 0.6mm/day (24 to 73mm). From about 60N to 140N there is an increase in rainfall amount of about 0.7mm/day. There is a significant reduction of JJAS rainfall amount on the leeward side of Cameroonian's Mountain of 1.4mm/day.

### P-1102-02

#### Climate Variability in Nepal: A Time Series Approach

**RB. Bista (1)**

(1) Patan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Economics, Lalitpur, Nepal

Climate variability in Nepal has become a big environmental issue. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists and what in different altitude, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. We use time series model based on the secondary data of hydrology and Metrology collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal.

The time series analysis finds climate variability in the different parts of Nepal in which all months have variability of temperature and rainfall precipitation. From 1975 to 2010, temperature raises annually by 20 C. However, rainfall is found declining. It is forecasted change of temperature by 60c over next 40 years. In case of rainfall, it is forecasted constant and results drought in high altitude and flood in low altitude. Climate variability may be a big threat in the different parts of Nepal.

### P-1102-03

#### How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach

**D. Carrer (1) ; N. Laanaia (1) ; JC. Calvet (1)**

(1) Meteo France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

The expected response of climate to the increase in greenhouse gas concentration during the 21st century is a 2-3°C warming in Europe (IPCC 2007). However, the sign of the response differs from a climate model to another. Two climate models predicting the same sign in the response of temperature and precipitation, but presenting different magnitudes of change, can lead to very different impacts. This is particularly true if we examine how climate conditions would affect the vegetation cycle. In particular, the implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of impacts and of the associated uncertainties. The new generation of generic Land Surface Models (LSMs) that include the carbon cycle of the biosphere and represent vegetation growth provides a wealth of information on this issue.

In the framework of the ORACLE ANR project, CNRM has produced 150-yr (1950-2100) simulations over France of the biomass of various vegetation types (straw cereals, grasslands, broadleaf and coniferous forests) and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types. The ISBA-A-gs generic LSM, able to work at various spatial scales (local to global), was used. Thirteen climatic simulations from the 4th IPCC assessment report, disaggregated at a spatial resolution of 8 km by 8 km, were used to drive the ISBA-A-gs model, over 191 grid-cells representing the main French agricultural and forest regions. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change and the agreement between climate models between near future (NF) (2020-2049), far future (FF) (2070-2099) and a reference past period (1970-1999). Everywhere in France, the duration of dry (wet) periods within one year increases (decreases), up (down) to + (-) 30d in NF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. On the other hand, large regional discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, later in eastern France) for both NF and FF. The length of the growing period is often more uncertain in FF than in NF in relation to differences in climate models. These simulations will be extended to the Euro-Mediterranean area and coupled with a hydrologic model. The new IPCC simulations will be used to complete this work.

**ACRONYMS:**

* ORACLE : Opportunités et Risques pour les Agro-ecosystèmes et les forêts en réponse aux changements Climatique, socio-économiques et politiques en France

* ISBA-A-gs : Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere model, including photosynthesis and vegetation growth

* LAI : Leaf Area Index
P-1102-04

Identifying future climate change hotspots over Southeast Asia

F. Cruz (1); J. Dado (2); K. Cheng Chua (1); E. Gozo (1); G. Narisma (1)

(1) Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) Tokyo Metropolitan University, Department of geography, Hachioji, Japan

Southeast Asia is one of the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate in a globally warmer future. In this study, climate variables from multiple CMIP5 global climate model output have been analyzed to describe the spatial extent and magnitude of future changes over the region. Potential climate change hotspots, i.e. areas indicating strong response to changes in climate, can therefore be identified. This is important for adaptation planning in the different sectors, including agriculture, on which the developing economies in this region are highly dependent. Initial results show that in the 2030s under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, high changes in the mean climate are likely to occur over Indochina, a region described by high seasonality in rainfall. On the other hand, significant changes in the extremes are noted over the Maritime Continent. However, changes in the location and intensity of these hotspots may still occur depending on the time period and emissions scenario.

P-1102-05

Recent sea-surface pH and SST changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Clipperton Reef) inferred from coral geochemistry

D. Dissard (1); D. E. (2); T. Correge (3); M. Mcculloch (4)

(1) IRD, Paris, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) EPOC, Bordeaux, France; (4) UWA ARC, Perth, Australia

Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 280 (pre-industrial value) to 390 ppvm (present value) have decreased global surface ocean pH by approximately 0.1 unit. Estimates of future atmospheric pCO2 suggest a further decrease of 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. Geochemical records preserved in the carbonate skeleton show that shallow water coral presentations provide one of the few means to reconstruct changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. However, since the early 1990's, when the potential of δ11B in biogenic carbonate as proxy for paleo-pH was realised, only few studies report on the recent decadal to centennial pH record, which is the appropriate timescale for studying the effects of ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic emissions of CO2.

The French island of Clipperton is the easternmost coral atoll in the Pacific Ocean located approximately 1200 km off the coast of Mexico. Due to the small number of ecological niches suitable for coral reefs development, almost no coral-based climatic records exists from the eastern Pacific. The possibility to work on Coral representations from Clipperton's therefore presents a unique opportunity to obtain information on surface seawater properties (e.g. TC, carbonate chemistry) of this key area of the central eastern Pacific Ocean. As part of this study we have undertaken, boron and oxygen isotope compositions and elemental ratios (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, B/Ca, Li/Mg) have been analysed over the last 80 years of a coral core retrieved in a colony of Porites australiensis (located 10°17'50.6N/109°13'5.08W, Clipperton island, 10m depth). Boron isotopes were measured by MC-ICPMS, while elemental concentrations were determined using ICP-MS. Isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations were used to quantify changes in seawater environmental parameters – and their significance on the global or more regional Pacific oceanic circulation will be discussed.

P-1102-06

The Past is an Essential Element of the Future

E. Griffin (1)

(1) National Research Council Canada, Dominion Astrophysical Observatory, Victoria, BC, Canada

In the natural world, changes happen almost constantly,

sometimes rapidly, often very gradually. Those gradual changes demonstrate two important aspects of our living world and its climate: (1) how systems are evolving by natural processes and internal stimuli, and (2) how modulations are being forced on them through external stimuli such as alterations to conditions, food patterns and their supplies, and imposed anthropogenic interference. Evolutionary changes have their own characteristic time-scales and are controlled, but forced changes can be accelerated beyond tolerance. Measuring that second type is the subject of this paper.

To understand the nature and rate of changes that are imposed by external stimuli, research MUST access observations and records throughout all the time-spans that are modelled. Modern modelling needs data in electronic formats, but since electronic ('born digital') recording and archiving only commenced about 30 years ago, the output from those models can only be reliable over that time-span. Unfortunately, the anthropogenic interference that may have caused the changes we nowsee to measure was already happening 30 years ago, so to obtain a more reliable base-line we must dig out much earlier data. Therein lies the challenge, because pre-digital data were recorded on paper, film, photographic plates or books, or (a bit more recently) on magnetic tapes that used priming for formatting with pre-digital data. Transforming any of those historical observations into modern electronic formats is an extra procedure that may require expert assistance and equipment as well as extra funding, with the result that a great many pre-digital data are still in theirvirouvain analogue states and are thus inaccessible to modern research. They are constantly at risk of physical degradation and damage, and – worse still – of being dismissed as ‘unwanted’ and thrown away.

The CODATA Task Group "Data At Risk" (DAR-TG) is investigating the plight of historical scientific data, and is actively raising awareness of them in order to help secure for science the information that they alone provide. The matter is growing increasingly urgent; although that information is totally unique to the relevant scientific domains on account of the long time-spans which are represented, fashion and convenience still overlook or ignore them. However, when historical data have been recovered and researched (and there have been some very notable and ingenuous efforts, as this paper will describe), the results can be fascinating, even startling.

This conference is an ideal opportunity to reflect on the dangers of NOT including sufficiently historical data when trying to understand climatic change. Without them, hopes of modelling and predicting conditions in the future will without doubt be seriously compromised

P-1102-07

Geochemical evidence of past atmospheric circulation along a 40-50°N longitudinal transect across Europe during the last climatic cycle

C. Hatté (1); C. Gauthier (2); DD. Rousseau (3); P. Antoine (4); M. Fuchs (5); F. Lagroix (6); O. Moine (4); A. Sima (7)

(1) CEA, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) CNRS, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) CNRS, Institut National des Gif-sdu'Univers, Paris, France; (4) CNRS, Laboratoire de géographie physique, environnements quaternaires et actuels, Meudon, France; (5) University of Giessen, Department of geography, Giessen, Germany; (6) CNRS, Institut de physique du globe de paris, Paris, France; (7) CNRS, Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, Paris, France

Highlighting the impact on regional scale of global climate changes is a major issue in climatology and paleoclimatology. While large global (global or continental) scale studies help evaluating the direct physical forcing of climate on ecosystems, constraining the effect of this forcing at local to regional scales is essential to evaluate ecosystem feedbacks on climate.

In paleoclimatology, isotopic organic geochemistry (d13Corg) of typical loess is now widely used to investigate past precipitation (average annual values and monthly distribution) and thus to tackle the impact of past climate changes on a regional scale. This type of study has been applied to several loess-paleoscale sequences along a 40-50°N transect from Western France to central Ukraine.
The d13Corg analyses were performed in parallel with those of other climate and environmental proxies like grain size, pedology, paleomagnetism and malacology. The investigated records cover the last climate cycle with sedimentation rates as high as 0.15 and 1 mm/yr during periods of loess deposition.

All these records show alternating periods of more or less pronounced climatic events (e.g. glacial (partial) and improvement (glacial interstadial). The combined analysis of all sequences for each climatic episode allows us to propose a schema of intensity of past climate change effects on the European continent. Here we highlight two precipitation gradients that prevailed during most of the last glacial period: a West-to-East decreasing gradient in mean annual precipitation and a North-to-South reinforcement of the seasonality.

## P-1102-08

### On increasing global temperatures: 77 years after Calendar

E. Hawkins (1); P. Jones, (2)

(1) University of Reading, Dept. of meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom; (2) University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first person to demonstrate that the Earth's land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. It is now 77 years since Callendar's landmark study and we demonstrate that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

## P-1102-09

### Climate change signals in Kenyan Rift valley lakes

E. Koech (1); L. Ogallo (2)

(1) University of Nairobi, Meteorology, nairobi, Kenya; (2) University of Nairobi and IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya

Climate over Kenya is largely Arid and Semi-Arid, making drought the most common hazard. Floods and many other local hazards occur with most of them being location specific. These climate extremes often have far-reaching impacts on various life-supporting and economic sectors including agriculture, tourism, food security, health, livestock, water resources, settlement, infrastructure, and environmental resources, among others. Climate change leads to increased frequency of droughts and other climate extremes with devastating impacts on livelihoods in many developing countries including Kenya. Thus, no country can have sustainable livelihoods and development without an effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies. Such policies require good knowledge of the past, present and future climate at specific locations that are often missing in many developing countries.

This paper presents the space-time patterns of climate extremes in the Rift Valley parts of Kenya in order to delineate the evidence of changing climate. This is evident in the changes in the Kenyan Rift Valley lake levels. These lakes, include Lakes Naivasha, Magadi, Elementaita, Nakuru, Baringo and Bogoria. Rainfall data from nearby stations were used to present past and present patterns of climate trends and the associated extremes. The lake level changes were used with an assumption that lake water inflow, outflow, evaporation, water uses, among other relevant factors remain constant. The results show fluctuating lake levels for specific periods corresponding to changes in precipitation trends. From September 2013 to date, there has been a significant lake level rise that has expanded the lakes' extents for several kilometres and even submerging nearby hotels and schools. Finally, this study simulates future climate change scenarios in the Rift Valley in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 that are critical for all future planning over the region.

## P-1102-10

### Variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and of the Austral ocean in the Kerguelen sector during the Deglacialia and the last Climatic Cycles: implications for global climate mechanisms

A. Mazaud (1); E. Michel (1); X. Crosta (2); F. Eynaud (2); V. Bout-Roumaizeis (3); S. Jaccard (4); M. Paterne (1); P. Robert (2)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), Cea-cnrs-uvsg, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), University bordeaux1, Pessac, France; (3) Geosystems., University Iliou, Villeneuve d'Ascac, France; (4) Institute of Geological Sciences & Oescher Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Sedimentary cores were collected with the Casq and Calpso coring systems of the RV Marion-Dufresne during the IndienSud-1 and 2 expeditions in 2011 and 2012 in the Kerguelen sector of the South Indian Ocean. These cores allow producing high-resolution, well-dated records, which document past climate and ocean circulation changes during the last climatic cycles, with a focus on the last deglaciation.

Past Changes in the intensity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are investigated using environmental magnetism methods, which trace amount and size of sedimentary magnetic grains transported by this current. Oxygen isotopes and foraminifera faunal assemblages trace hydrological and temperature changes, while vertical mixing is documented by δ13C. A precise age scale will be derived from 14C ages determinations, augmented by regional correlations (magnetic susceptibility) to well-dated cores in the same area, thanks to a tephrochronological study of the marine cores and peat cores from the Kerguelen archipelago.

Results document a stronger ACC current during glacial intervals than during interglacials over at least the last 600 kyr. This pattern is opposite to observations of flow of the NADW branch (WBU) of the ACC of Greenland in the North Atlantic Ocean. It suggests an inter-hemispheric antiphasing between ACC and NADW at Milanvokitch timescales, with a strong circulation in the deep North Atlantic when the ACC is weak, and vice versa (thus with an ACC correlated with the GNAIWI intensity). During the last deglaciation, temperature and vertical mixing increased prior to changes in the ACC current intensity. A decrease (or northward branch) of the ACC occurred later during the deglacial process. It could be associated to the rate changes of the AMOC and to deep ocean ventilation. Observed changes appear to be closely connected to atmospheric CO2 changes during the last deglaciation.

## P-1102-11

### Assessing the potential impacts of climate change and reforestation over rainfall onset and cessation over West Africa

M. Mounkaila Saley (1)

(1) West African Climate Service Center for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Meteorology, Ondo State, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change and reforestation on the rainfall onset and cessation over West Africa. It uses two observations (GPCP and TRMM) and two RMI degree CCM and WRF forced respectively with HadGEM and ECHAM for the Western day climate (1971–2004) and projected future climate (2031–2064) under rcp45 conditions. Four definitions (DEF1, DEF2, DEF3 and DEF4) of rainfall onset dates (ROD) and one of rainfall cessation dates (RCD) based on rainfall threshold are used in this study. The results show that both observations (GPCP and TRMM) produce similar results of ROD/RCD in each climatic zones of West Africa (respectively Guinea, Savanna and Sahel). HadGEM and ECHAM fail to simulate the spatial distribution of ROD/RCD and produce later/early ROD/RCD in all definitions as observed. However, RegCM and WRF perform better than their driven GCMs (HadGEM and ECHAM) in simulating the ROD/RCD over the region. The potential impacts of
climate change due to elevated greenhouse gas (GHGs) shows that the temperature would likely increase over West Africa in both RCMS and also in the GCMs (HadGEM and ECHAM) more consistently over the Sahel. On the other hand, elevated GHGs would lead to a decrease in rainfall as indicated by the RCMS and GCMs although the decrease is much more consistent again over the Sahel. As for the future ROD, increase in GHGs indicates that regardless of the definitions used, northern Nigeria would have delayed RODs. The vertical structure of the monsoon dynamics in the areas where the highest impacts of climate change (i.e. latest ROD) are observed for each definition shows that the elevated GHGs in the future under rcps4 condition would induce shallower monsoon flow essentially over the Sahel. However, there was no agreement between the RCMS (RegCM and WRF) on the potential impact of climate change on the RODs due to elevated GHGs, for while RegCM indicates delayed RODs over the Sahel and early RODs over the Savanna, WRF produces early RODs in all the areas. From both models, the projected impact of reforestation under the rcps4 condition indicates that West African climate would be cooler in most areas with more rainfall during the rainy season especially over the reforested zone. The cooling effect is more consistent and higher over Savanna but reforestation would induce a warming over some surrounding areas. Regardless of the definitions used, reforestation would induce a warming over Savanna area would induce early ROD over most areas in West Africa as obtained from both models, except over the north of Nigeria. The potential impact of reforestation on the RODs (under rcps4 conditions) again produces divergent results by the RCMS. While RegCM indicates delayed RODs over the reforested area and early RODs over Sahel, WRF produces delayed RODs over all the climatic zones.

## P-1102-12

### Spatial and temporal variability in observed and future projected precipitation in Bia basin (Ivory coast-Ghana)

M. N'diaye Hermann (1); KK. Lazare (1); YN. Alexis (2); KY. Morton (2); S. Issiaka (2)

(1) Centre de Recherche en Ecologie, Laboratoire géologique marine, sédimentologie et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Nanqu Abrogouma, Laboratoire géosciences et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

The phenomena of drought and desertification that affected many African countries south of the Sahara have not spared the Ivory Coast, especially from the 1980s. The impact of these events resulted in significant climatic disturbances including abnormal extension of the dry season, the irregularity and the poor distribution of rainfall and significant reductions in agricultural yields in the southeast zone. The question is to know is that these same phenomena will repeat in the future in the medium term (2030-2050) or long-term future (2070 and beyond).

Attempts to assess the changes between the observed (or historical) and future projected monthly rainfall for six stations throughout Bia basin have been made with descriptive statistics and value analysis. We obtained the monthly rainfalls data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) dataset. These data is down scaled using the change factor approach for 30 1981 to 2010 (period 0), simulation from 2021 to 2050 (period 1) and from 2070 to 2099 (period 2). The historical and projected rainfalls are obtained from RCP 2.5, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, which are based on a model HadGEM2-ES and model IPSL-CM5-MR. The first order Markov chain was used to describe the occurrence of sequences of wet or dry years. For the comparison values, the time series of the observed are obtained. To examine temporal changes in drought, a cluster analysis was conducted by Self Organizing Map (SOM) for Matlab. The within-group linkage and the hierarchical clustering analysis method were performed using the value of the month. The number of optimum cluster was determined when the similarity between merged clusters decreased sharply according to the number of groups. HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5-MR represents the precipitation annual cycles quite well. In Bia basin over the respective average correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.80. From the descriptive statistics, we find that the numbers of heavy rainfall events will increase in the future. The total precipitation is projected to remain unchanged or slightly increased, compared to the observation. From the annually value analysis, we can observe that expected return periods for dry episodes are almost constant,

ranging from 1.20 to 1.45 years. In accordance with this we should conclude that no significant differences could be established among the different stations of the basin. The short return period (1.05 years), reflecting the state of having a new dry episode, is observed in the Bia region during the period 2021 to 2099.

Subsequently, the monthly values with similar trends were grouped into two different clusters where the region G1 corresponds to different and G2 the Southern region. The map shows that future droughts are projected to frequently occur in all regions, especially from the -2021s to the early 2050s. The droughts in the Bia basin between the year 2026 and 2027 are distinct from the other regions in the same period. These were previously confirmed to be quite intense over annual timescales. For the period 2032-2035, intense droughts are expected to occur nationwide, which may also continue in the regions. After this period, sporadic drought is expected to occur in some regions, with more intense ones from the 2070s in the region G1 and G2. Lastly, in the year 2099, a short, intensive drought is expected to occur in all regions.

## P-1102-13

### Response of North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

T. Oudar (1); E. Sanchez-Gomez (1); F. Chauvin (2); L. Terry (1)

(1) CERFACS/CNRS, Sciences de l'Univers au CERFACS, URA1875, Toulouse, France; (2) Méto–France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

Climate variability in Europe is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. They are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and the pole. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it seems relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions obtained from the CMIP5 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a po權ward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex retroactions acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains unanswered.

The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past decades and to analyze the role of the external versus the internal variability on these changes. We will use different sets of atmospheric reanalyses and the climate simulations performed with the climate model CNRM-CM5, built up by the CNRM-CERFACS modelling group as a contribution to CMIP5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, the tracking scheme developed at Méto France by Ayrault (1995) has been used. It is based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa.

The algorithm has been applied to the ERA40 and 20CR reanalyses. Even though the 20CR reanalysis covers the whole 20th century, we show, in this study, that it is not adapted to assess trends in the atmospheric fields before 1950, due to some discrepancies in the assimilated observations. However, in the second part of the 20th century, the 20CR reanalysis seems coherent to ERA40.

In a second part, we investigate the effect of external forcinings on the North Atlantic storm tracks recent trends in the simulation performed with CNRM-CM5. We compare a control simulation with the historical simulation, in which all the external forcinings have been prescribed. We show that the model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the following tracks. In the historical period (1850-2005), the model shows a increase in the number of extratropical cyclones in the southern Atlantic. In addition, extratropical cyclones (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. In the scenario (RCP8.5), the tendency seen in the all-forcinings historical run is confirmed and reinforced.

Finally, we use the idealized simulations to study the effects on storm-tracks when only one kind forcining is prescribed to the climate model. Here we show that the response of North Atlantic storm-track is coherent to the one found in the
historical simulation when only an increase of 2% CO2 per year during 30 years is prescribed, suggesting that, in the CNRM-CM5 model, the impact of the CO2 forcing is the dominant to explain the trends in the North Atlantic storm-tracks.

## P-1102-14

# Impacts of natural external forcings on the Amazon regime rainfall modulated by the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the past millennium

L. Prado (1) ; I. Wainer, (1)

(1) Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Tropical climates are strongly influenced by the moisture influx from the adjacent oceans. In 2005 and 2010, dryness events observed in the Amazon Basin were strongly related to positive anomalies of sea surface temperature over the tropical North Atlantic. These changes in the Amazon water cycle had important consequences to the population, economy and ecosystems. In recent past climates, there is evidence of drier conditions in the Amazon Basin during the Amazon Age (1400 to 1700 Common Era, C.E.) and wetter conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 C.E.). These periods were associated with variations of natural external forcings, as the solar and the volcanic forcings. The variability of tropical oceans is influenced by the amount of energy received by the Sun and also by atmospheric changes due to volcanic eruptions, because both consist of radiative forcings. As the Amazon Basin moisture influx is related to the tropical Atlantic conditions, any changes in this ocean will impact on the Amazon rainfall regime. Here we will present the effects of the solar variability and the volcanism of the past millennium (850-1850 C.E.) on the tropical Atlantic conditions and consequent impacts on the Amazon rainfall regime. We will use single-forcing experiments monthly outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model (NCAR- CESM) for the past millennium, when natural external forcings prevailed over the anthropogenic forcing. Air-sea interaction processes in the tropical Atlantic will be estimated from the model outputs, and then related with changes in the rainfall regime over the Amazon Basin. These results will contribute to a better understanding of the natural forcings on the tropical climate.

## P-1102-15

# Impact of climate variability and change on meteorological droughts over Southern South America

JA. Rivera (1) ; OC. Penalba, (2) ; D. Araneo, (1)

(1) Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (INIGLA), Programa Regional de Meteorología, Mendoza, Argentina; (2) Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) - CONICET, Departamento de ciencias de la atmosfера y los océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Droughts are perceived as one of the costliest and least understood natural disasters, given the difficulty in defining its beginning and end, its slow development and its multiple regional aspects. Southern South America (SSA) was no exception to this hazard, whose impacts were evident in the reduction in crop yields, reduced cattle products, streamflow deficiencies and consequently problems for hydroelectric power generation. This research addresses the observed spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over South America, which is robust presence of non-stationary data. Trends indicate the existence of a low-frequency variability that modulates regional precipitation patterns at different temporal scales, and warns about possible future consequences in the social and economic sectors if trends towards an increase in the drought affected area continue. This non-linearity was also evident on the temporal behavior of other hydrometeorological variables, like the annual

number of dry days over Argentina, and on the streamflow deficiencies over the central Andes and Patagonia. Moreover, links with decadal oscillations as the PDO were identified in the modulation of the decadal component of the annual cumulated deficit volume in the central Andes of Argentina.

The future assessment of precipitation and meteorological drought conditions was performed through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Changes in meteorological drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline. Future climate conditions are expected to modify the regional characteristics of meteorological droughts over SSA, but the range of uncertainty in the expected changes is high. A significant increase in the number of drought events for most of the 21st century sub-periods and scenarios is projected for the multi-model ensemble outputs. The mean duration of drought events will be shorter, with no significant changes in the severity of droughts and the occurrence of multi-decadal changes in the number of critical dry months is likely, although the significance in the changes depends on the region, future time horizon and scenario. These results overlap with a projected increase in precipitation over most of the regions, which has a strong seasonality and, therefore, will have some implications upon the future meteorological drought developments and the agricultural and hydrological practices in SSA. It is expected that the outcomes of this study will provide a measure of the likelihood of further drought changes under the CMIP5 framework, which was a key factor of the IPCC's AR5.

## P-1102-16

# Comparaison de méthodes de réduction d'échelle pour des moyennes et des extrés de précipitations au Sénégal

MA. Sarr (1) ; O. Seidou (2) ; Y. Tramblay (3) ; S. El Adlouni (4)

(1) Centre de Suivi Écologique, Dakar, Senegal; (2) University of Ottawa, Civil engineering, Ottawa, Canada; (3) IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (4) Université de Moncton, Département de mathématiques et de statistique, Moncton, Canada

Au Sénégal, les chutes de pluie au cours de ces dernières années provoquent régulièrement des dégâts importants dans divers secteurs. Ainsi, il est donc important de comprendre l'évolution future des régimes de précipitations extrêmes pour fournir des outils à la prise de décisions.

Deux techniques différentes de réduction d'échelle ont été appliquées aux sorties de quatre (4) Modèles Climatiques Régionaux (MCR) à six (6) stations sélectionnées au Sénégal. La première technique de réduction d'échelle est la méthode Delta-Change. Elle est appliquée sur la moyenne annuelle des précipitations ainsi qu'aux périodes de retour calculées sur 5, 10, 20, 50 et 100 ans sur la base des précipitations quotidiennes. La seconde technique utilise la méthode de transformation Quantile-quantile qui permet de modifier les distributions mensuelles des précipitations simulées du MRC et ensuite calculer les périodes de retour de 5, 10, 20, 50 et 100 ans des précipitations journalières. Tous les événements de précipitations extrêmes sont calculés par l'ajustement de la distribution de GEV. Un test de Kolmogorov-Smirnoff est utilisé pour évaluer la performance de la transformation de Quantile-quantile ainsi que l'ajustement de la distribution de GEV pour les précipitations quotidiennes maximales.

Les résultats montrent que les deux méthodes, appliquées aux sorties de la même modèle climatique, sont généralement homogènes sur la direction du changement. En revanche, elles conduisent à de différentes projections dans la direction et dans l'intensité du changement des précipitations extrêmes. Les changements projetés dans les précipitations moyennes sont à la baisse, excepté pour un MRC sur une station. Les changements projetés dans les précipitations extrêmes sont pas uniformes ni à toutes stations, ni à toutes les périodes de retour. Les résultats suggèrent également que le choix de la méthode de réduction d'échelle a plus d'effet sur l'estimation des précipitations quotidiennes extrêmes des périodes de retour égales ou supérieures à dix ans que le choix de la méthode climatique.
P-1102-17

## Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

D. Swingedouw (1); P. Ortega (2); J. Mignot (3); E. Guilyardi (4); V. Masson-Delmotte (5); P. Butler (6); M. Khodri (3); R. Séférion (7)

(1) Université de Bordeaux, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France; (2) University of Reading, Ncas Laplace, Reading, United Kingdom; (3) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Locgene, Paris, France; (4) LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC case 100, Paris, France; (5) IPSL/LSCSE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (6) University of Bangor, Bangor, United Kingdom; (7) Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Understanding the mechanisms driving Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decadal variability is critical for climate predictability in the Northern Hemisphere. North Atlantic paleoclimate proxy records exhibit variance are the bidirectional scale but the drivers of this variability remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical simulations produce such bidirectional variability exhibit a robust maximum in AMOC strength 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption, followed by a second maximum in the 1990s, caused by the reset of a bidirectional cycle. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from lower latitudes and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the North Atlantic in the 1970s and 1990s. Simulations as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records indicate that coherent bidirectional cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Over the last decades, climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal interference patterns associated with the timing of subsequent volcanic eruptions. Destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have led to a stable AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting impact of volcanic eruptions on AMOC strength in North Atlantic Ocean and climate, and potentially significant multi-decadal predictability following the next large volcanic eruption.

P-1102-18

## The CMIP5 GCMs ensemble climate change scenarios for Republic of Moldova's vulnerability and adaptation assessment

L. Taranu (1); I. Bercu (1); D. Deveatii (1)

(1) Climate Change Office of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Moldova

In the present study we assessed the patterns of climate change computed from global climate model output gathered as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) in temperature and precipitation conditions over the Republic of Moldova (RM) Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) as a consequence of the enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations until the end of the 21st century. Totally, 21 global coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (GCMs) were downloaded and assessed. The projections were made under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 and climatic changes over the RM's AEZs for the near term (2016-2035), midterm (2046-2065) and long term (2081-2100), which are given relative to the reference period of 1986-2005. The CO₂-equivalent concentrations in the year 2100 for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are 421 ppm, 538 ppm and 936 ppm, respectively (Meinshausen et al., 2011). The first feature to highlight is, that for temperature, the ensemble average changes consistently have the same sign across scenarios and their magnitude increase from the low RCP 2.6 radiative forcing pathway to the high GHG ones RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, as we move into the later decades of the 21st century.

The CMIP5 projections reveal warming in all seasons for the three RM's AEZs, while precipitation projections are more variable across scenarios, sub-regions and seasons. Annual changes for temperatures are very homogeneous over the RM's AEZs. The rate of warming is higher under RCP 8.5 scenario reach +4.6 °C, medium +2.4 °C under RCP 4.5; and smaller +1.4 °C under RCP 2.6 scenario by 2100. The ensemble, driven by RCP 8.5 emission scenario, estimate that the RM's AEZs will experience the

most significant warming during summer from +5.9 °C in Northern up to +6.1 °C over Southern AEZ's by 2100. The pattern of change derived from the ensemble RCP 2.6 models is quite similar, but the magnitude of change is lower from +1.3 to +1.5 °C. The warming would be higher during winter up to +4.6 °C over Northern, although in Central and Southern AEZ's temperature rise will be lower than +4.2 °C according to the RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 2.6 scenario reveals less intense warming over the RM's AEZs from +1.2 to +1.4 °C.

The ensemble projections from the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario that the RM's AEZs would exhibit a general annual decrease in precipitation varying from 9.9% in Northern to 13.4% to Southern AEZs. Controversially, according to RCP 2.6 scenario is projected moderate increase in precipitation from 3.1% in Northern to 5.1% to Southern AEZs by 2100. Winters have been estimated to be wetter in the RM by the end of the 21st century. The ensemble projections show the largest increase in precipitation from 4.0% (RCP 2.6) to 11.8% (RCP 8.5) in winter over Northern and the lowest one from 3.0% (RCP 2.6) to 7.4% (RCP 8.5) in Central parts of the country by 2100. The precipitation decrease will be more extended in the RM's AEZs during summer; the greatest rainfall reduction from 13.2% (RCP 4.5) to 25.1% (RCP 8.5) is projected in central AEZ and the lowest one from 18.1% (RCP 18.1) in Northern areas. Obtained scenarios is planned to use in near future for vulnerability and adaptation assessments of key socio-economic sectors.

P-1102-19

## South American precipitation changes simulated by PMIP3/CMIP5 models in past and present climates

C. Vera (1); L. Diaz, (2)

(1) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), UMI-IFAEI, CONICET-UBA-CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina;

(2) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), UMI-IFAEI, CONICET-UBA-CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Significant precipitation changes have been identified in many regions of South America using both, paleoclimatic proxy records of the last 700 years and instrumental observations over the last 1500 years. Such changes are not clearly understood yet, but they largely impact the socio-economic activities of the countries that the regions encompass. The availability of the climate simulations included in the Fifth Phase of the World Climate Research Program-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the Third Phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) provides an excellent opportunity to assess the ability of current models in representing those precipitation changes. Therefore, that assessment is briefly discussed here as well as the exploration of the main dynamic mechanisms that might explain them.

The following experiments of the PMIP3/CMIP5 set were considered: the pre-industrial experiment, which not include any external forcing; the Historical experiment, which was obtained forcing models by both natural and anthropogenic sources, observed between 1850 and 2005; and the Last Millennium which span the period from 850 to 1850 and is obtained considering the natural forcing estimated for that period. Multi-model ensemble means (MEM) were computed for each experiment over the periods under study.

The Andes Mountains are one of the regions in South America in which paleoclimate studies have been focused on. In particular, in both, the Altiplano, a high-level plateau (around 3800 m), located in the Andes between 15°S and 21°S, and the subtropical Andes, located in central Chile at around 33°S, wetter-than-normal conditions were identified during the 17th century within the period known as Little Ice Age (LIA). On the other hand, drier-than-normal conditions were detected at both regions in the second part of the 20th century in association with the more recent global warming period (GWP). Although MEM are capable of representing the thermal changes in South America estimated in both periods, they do not properly represent the expected precipitation changes, except in the subtropical Andes during the GWP. The large uncertainties associated with the model simulations might be due to their limitations in reproducing the regional precipitation, especially over complex topography. On the other hand, models seem
able to represent the large-scale circulation changes that would explain the precipitation changes observed at those two regions in a physically consistent way. It was found that in the Altiplano, wetter (drier) summers in LIA (GWP) seem to be related with a stronger (weaker) upper-level eastward zonal flow, well represented by the MEM. On the other hand, models consistently show that wetter (drier) winters in the subtropical Andes in LIA (GWP), seem to be associated with a stronger (weaker) westward zonal flow in the low troposphere, induced in turn by hemispheric changes related to a negative (positive) phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

Southeastern South America (SESA), encompassing the most productive economic areas of 6 different countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), is another region in which available records show a significant precipitation increase by the end of the XX century not only as compared to that observed at the beginning of

that century, but also to that estimated by paleoclimatic records at around 700 years ago. Both precipitation and circulation changes simulated by the models at that early period are highly uncertain. However, the MEM for the Historical experiment are able to reproduce precipitation changes observed in SESA during the GWP, although they are weaker than observed. In fact, most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes in SESA during that period. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability), are still large. In addition, it was found that mean positive precipitation trends in SESA for the Historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment made over the 20th century, which exhibit negligible mean values. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA during the GWP.

# 1103 - Climate variability and external forcings of the Common Era with special focus on the role of volcanic eruptions

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1103-01

#### Robust ocean cooling trend for 0-1800 CE and the role of volcanic forcing

H. McGregor (1); M. Evans, (2); H. Goosse (3); G. Leduc, (4); B. Martrat (5); J. Addison, (6); P.G. Mortyn, (7); D. Oppo, (8); M.S. Seidenkrantz (9); MA. Sicre (10); S. Phipps (11); K. Selvaraj, (12); K. Thirumalai, (13); H. Filipsson (14); V. Ersev, (15)

(1) University of Wollongong, School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Wollongong, Australia; (2) University of Maryland, Maryland, United States of America; (3) UCL, Institut georges lemaire, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; (4) Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Aix en Provence, France; (5) IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; (6) US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, United States of America; (7) Universitat Automa de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain; (8) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States of America; (9) Aarhus University, Department of geoscience, Aarhus, Denmark; (10) CNRS, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (11) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia; (12) Xiamen University, Xiamen, China; (13) University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States of America; (14) Lund University, Dept. of geology, Lund, Sweden; (15) Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing, yet observations of global maritime surface climate variations in the late Holocene, and the mechanisms that drive the variations, are relatively unknown. Here we synthesize 57 sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, sourced from all major ocean basins, and spanning at least 1000 years. The reconstructions are derived from marine archives (Mg/Ca, alkenones, TEX86, faunal assemblages in sediment cores, and coral), and meet strict chronological control criteria. The reconstructions are geographically sparse, however analysis of multi-millennial AOGCM output and historical gridded SST observations suggest the reconstructions are spatially sufficient to resolve global mean SST.

The reconstructions were standardised into 200-year bins and the resulting Ocean2k SST synthesis reveals a robust SST cooling trend for 0-1800 years of the Common Era (CE), with the strongest cooling after 1100 CE. The cooling trend is not sensitive to localized upwelling, marine archive type, seasonality of response, chronological control, water depth, sampling resolution, sedimentation rate, basin, latitude or hemisphere.

The Ocean2k SST cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial paleoclimate data, and with simulations from the multimodel MIIP3 ensemble, driven by the full suite of hypothesized radiative forcings. Comparison with ensembles of single and cumulative radiative forcing simulations suggests that

the cooling trend arises not from orbital forcing, but from the increased frequency of explosive volcanism and/or land use change in the most recent millennium. We find that the episodic volcanic eruptions induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global-scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

### K-1103-02

#### Climate impacts of volcanic double events during the Common Era

K. Krüger (1); M. Toohey, (2); M. Sigl (3)

(1) University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway; (2) GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung, Kiel, Germany; (3) Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland

Volcanic eruptions are known to be a major driver of climate variability during the last millennium (the Common Era). Recent high-resolution polar ice core data reveal new insights into volcanic forcing during this period, improving our knowledge of the timing and the amount of sulfur released by past volcanic eruptions (Sigl et al., 2014). Here we focus on the effect of volcanic "double events", such as the major eruptions of 1808/1809 (Unknown) and 1815 (Tambora). The close temporal proximity of two eruptions creates the potential for climate impacts to superimpose. Ice core records provide evidence of other such double events, and climate proxy records are used to assess the climate impact of double compared to single eruption events. We perform climate model simulations to investigate specific volcanic double events, reconstructed from ice core records, and assess the potential for additive climate impacts. In particular, simulations are used to investigate the impact of decadal scale volcanic radiative and dynamical anomalies on the coupled climate system including vegetation, sea ice and ocean circulation changes. Our model results show that given certain conditions, two closely spaced eruptions of Tambora magnitude could have a larger cumulative climate impact than a single eruption of much greater magnitude. Based on the observational records and model results, we propose that volcanic double events are a likely agent for abrupt (decadal) climate changes, and may have had significant impacts on past civilizations.

Sigl, M., J.R. McConnell, M. Toohey, M. Curran, S.B. Das, R. Edwards, E. Isaksson, K. Kawamura, K. Krüger, L. Layman, O. Maselli, Y. Motzukii, D. Pasteri, Rewriting the history of volcanic forcing during the Common Era using new ice cores, Nature Climatic Change, 10.1038/nclimate2293, 2014.
O-1103-01

## Climate change making impacts on societies in the European/Mediterranean region during the past two millennia as seen by land-ocean palaeoarchives

B. Martrat (1); C. Euromed-Ocean2k (2)

(1) IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; (2) University of Cambridge, Earth sci., Cambridge, United Kingdom

A composite of sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions from the Mediterranean/Eastern Atlantic basins (this study; McGregor et al., 2015, submitted) is compared with a stack of terrestrial records selected to describe the temperature variability in the European region over the past 2000 years (PAGES 2k consortium, 2013, NATURE GEO.). Prior to 800 CE, the scarcity of measurements prevents us from making sound inferences about climatic changes during this interval. From 800 to 1800 CE, both land and ocean signals present common significant cooling trends (up to -1 s. d. units/millennium, R2>0.67, p<0.01), attributable to the anomalous cold temperatures registered during the Little Ice Age. The latter is a well-documented anomaly, which had strong impacts on European societies and stands out in both composites, particularly after 1600 CE. Ensembles of forcing simulations suggest that this is consistent with a global cooling trend, which arises from increased frequency of explosive volcanism and possible land use change. During the post-industrial time interval, the terrestrial composite registers almost +2 s. d. units warming since 1800 CE, in the remarkably warm (R2>0.81) p<0.01 with a reference Central England temperature record estimated independently (Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, 2014). The warming is of lower amplitude in the ocean composite, only +1 s. d. units, in line with historical sea surface temperatures (Kaplan et al., 1998, J. GEOPHYS. RES.). The 20th century warming amplitude seems more pronounced as more low-latitude and close-to-land records are taken into consideration, whereas inclusion of high-latitude and/or upwelling locations attenuates it. Given the uncertainties inherent in the reconstructions available and the variety of responses to climate changes during this interval, the answer to the question whether the last century is likely the warmest climatic period of the latest 2000 years appears elusive in the Europe/Mediterranean region.

O-1103-02

## Volcanic Eruptions and Global Climate Impact

M. Sigl (1); JR. Mcconnell, (2); M. Winstrup, (3); G. Plunkett, (4); F. Ludlow, (5); C. Kostick, (6); K. Welten, (7); M. Toohey, (8); K. Krüger (9); U. Büntgen, (10); M. Baillie, (4)

(1) Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland; (2) Desert Research Institute, Division of hydrological sciences, Reno, United States of America; (3) University of Washington, Department of earth and space sciences, Washington, United States of America; (4) Queen's University Belfast, School of geography, archaeology & palaeoecology, Belfast, United Kingdom; (5) Yale Climate & Energy Institute, and Department of History, New Haven, United States of America; (6) The University of Nottingham, Department of history, Nottingham, United Kingdom; (7) University of California, Space sciences laboratory, Berkeley, United States of America; (8) GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung, Kiel, Germany; (9) University of Oslo, Department of geosciences, Oslo, Norway; (10) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Early documentary records report of a mysterious dust cloud that was covering Europe for 12 months in 536-37 CE, which was followed by climatic downturn and societal collapse. Global and meteorological analysis of the chemical composition of the tiny volcanic glassies found in the ice layer corresponding of this eruption. With a great level of certainty, the chemical fingerprint of the tiny glasses in ice is found to match the chemical compositions of the ashes layers found around the volcano. This result should open a complete review of the climatic impact of this volcano and demonstrated the feasibility of identifying the origin of volcanoes in ice cores from their geochemical fingerprint.

By using a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates novel, global-scale time markers with state-of-the-art continuing ice core aerosol measurements, automated objective ice-core layer counting, téphra analyses, and detailed examination of historical archives, we developed a new volcanic forcing series from bipolar ice-core arrays back into Roman times. We revised the timing of

major volcanic eruptions and reconstructed atmospheric aerosol loading and the spatiotemporal distribution of volcanic sulfate and tepha. The precipice ice-core timescales for Greenland and Antarctica enabled us to discern tropical from Northern Hemisphere eruptions, and to identify the climate-altering role of non-tropical eruptions, such as those causing the "mystery cloud" in 536-37 CE.

Our study reconciles human and natural archives - demonstrated by the synchronicity of major volcanic eruption dates to historical documentary records and the (now) consistent response of tree-ring-reconstructed cooling extremes occurring in the immediate aftermath of large volcanic eruptions throughout the past 2,000 years.

These findings have significant implications in multiple research fields including quantification and attribution of climate variations to external forcing, and will be of benefit for historians, volcanologists as well as climate scientists.

O-1103-03

## Geochemical DNA or the identification of 1259AD volcanic glasses in ice cores

J. Savarino (1); E. Gautier, (1); JR. Petit, (1); A. Michel, (2); N. Metrich, (2); P. Besson, (2); C. Vidal, (2); JC. Komorowski, (2); F. Lavigne (3); V. Batanova (4)

(1) CNRS/UJF, LGGE, Grenoble, France; (2) CNRS/UCPS, Iggp, Paris, France; (3) Université Paris1, Laboratoire de géographie physique, Paris, France; (4) UJF, Ister, Grenoble, France

The 1259 AD unknown volcanic eruption occurred in polar ice cores is considered as the most powerful eruption of the last 7 000 years and could have triggered the little ice age as well as profoundly changed the political and sociological organization of the middle age. Despite its relative young age and power, the origin of this eruption has remained elusive. For years, volcanologists and glaciologists have searched for the possible origin of this mega eruption with little results. This event has thus remained as the unknown 1259AD event, limiting a possible examination in great details of the climatic consequences of this eruption. After decades of research, based on taxation, geomorphological considerations and historical archives, Lavigne et al [1] have recently proposed the Salamas/Rinjani (Indonesia) as the possible volcano for this eruption.

In order to validate this proposition, we have undertaken a thorough and meticulous analysis of the chemical composition of the tiny volcanic glassies found in the ice layer corresponding of this eruption. With a great level of certainty, the chemical fingerprint of the tiny glasses in ice is found to match the chemical compositions of the ashes layers found around the volcano. This result should open a complete review of the climatic impact of this volcano and demonstrated the feasibility of identifying the origin of volcanoes in ice cores from their geochemical fingerprint.

Lavigne, F., et al. (2013), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307520110.

O-1103-04

## A reconstruction of terrestrial volcanism over the last 2500 years using sulfur isotopes in ice cores

E. Gautier, (1); J. Savarino, (2); J. Farquhar, (3)

(1) CNRS/UJF, LGGE, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; (2) LGGE, Grenoble, France; (3) University of Maryland, Geology, College Park, United States of America

Ice cores provide an opportunity to reconstruct a history of Earth's volcanic activity. Many attempts have been made in the past to build a robust volcanic climate forcing model based on the ice records, but the robustness of this model depends on the statistical significance of usually a single record and on discriminating between large distant eruptions and closer, smaller eruptions.

We used ice cores drilled at Dome C (Antarctica) to measure first, the statistical weight of a single ice core record and second, to measure the non-zero Δ33S of ice-core sulfate as a proxy for stratospheric volcanic eruptions. SO2 emitted by these events can be mass-independent fractionated (Δ33S+0) during photolysis reactions in the stratosphere [1], [2], [3], [4]). The signal, recorded
in aerosol sulfate, is preserved in ice cores. The sulfur anomaly allows identification of eruptions very likely to be stratospheric, with potential climatic impact, regardless to the ice core location, the age or the magnitude of the recorded event.

In 2010–2011, five 100m-long ice cores from Dome C, Antarctica, separated by 1m, were collected to reconstruct the history of volcanism over the last 2500 years. Assumed volcanic events were identified through sulfate concentration measurements in the field, and located on the cores. We used an algorithm for the peak detection, and 51 potential volcanic events were identified. Based on this detection, a statistical evaluation of the occurrence of these 51 events in each ice core was conducted and allowed measuring the representativeness of a single ice core to reveal a history of volcanism. Following this statistical work, volcanic sulfate contained in snow and ice have been isolated, decantinated, melted, concentrated and extracted using ion exchange methods. Each presumed volcanic event has been subdivided in 5 fractions at least, in order to differentiate the background isotopic signal from the sulfate peak. The peak itself has been divided into three portions. The results show that Δ33S and Δ36S are anti-correlated, and allow to discriminate stratospheric and tropospheric events, with the former having isotopic systematics that vary first with a positive Δ33S at the beginning of deposition and with a negative Δ33S at the end of the volcanic deposition. Such unique feature should allow us to reconstruct a robust volcanic forcing signal, independent of the size of the event record in ice.

[1] Farquhar et al. (2001), J. Geophys. Res. 106, 32829–32839. [2] Savarino et al., (2003), J. Geophys. Res. 108(D21), 4671.[3] Baroni et al. (2008), J. Geophys. Res. 113(D20), 1–12. [4] Baroni et al. (2007), Sciences 315, 84–87.

## O-1103-05

### Effect of large volcanic eruptions on climate variability from inter-annual to decadal timescales: Towards a coordinated modeling assessment

M. Khodri (1) ; C. Timmreck (2) ; D. Zanchettin (3) ; M. Toohey, (4) ; V. Poulain, (1)

(1) IPSL, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (2) Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; (3) University of Venice, Venice, Italy; (4) GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean

Research, Kiel, Germany

It is now generally recognised that volcanic eruptions have an important effect on climate variability from inter-annual to decadal timescales. At the decadal scale, CMIP5/PMIP3 simulations have highlighted that clusters of eruptions can produce a long-lasting cooling such as during the 13th and the 19th centuries. This has led to the hypothesis that enhanced volcanic activity during the second half of the 13th century played a significant role in the transition towards the Little Ice Age through its impact on the thermohaline oceanic circulation and on Arctic sea ice. This hypothesis remains however speculative, as paleoclimatic reconstructions and climate simulations yield partly contradictory results.

Concerning the short-term hemispheric response to sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions, CMIP5/PMIP3 climate simulations show stronger cooling than tree-ring based reconstructions. Scarce information about the medieval and 19th century eruptions (i.e. magnitude, timing and location) have so far hampered a realistic assessment of the climatic impacts of decadally-paced volcanic events. Another possible reason for the mismatch is our limited understanding of the evolution of stratospheric aerosol formed after strong eruptions of pre-instrumental period, such as Tambora in April 1915, for which no direct observations are available.

It is therefore necessary to frame future modeling activities within common designs that separately tackle the two major steps linking sulfur emissions by volcanic eruptions and climate response: first, the chemical and microphysical transformation occurring within the stratospheric volcanic cloud; then, the aerosol’s direct radiative effects and associated feedback mechanisms activated in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The coordinated modeling initiative within VOLMIP (Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing, an activity for CMIP6-) has been motivated by such necessity. VOLMIP will provide new consensus forcing input data and related coupled climate simulations for some of the major volcanic eruptions that occurred during the pre-industrial period of the last millennium.

This contribution presents ongoing activities and research highlights achieved within VOLMIP, illustrating how these coordinated modeling assessments are contributing towards constraining uncertainties in the climate response to volcanic forcing, improving the evaluation of climate models, and advancing our understanding of past, current and future climates.

# 1104 - Climate services and information: from global change to local decisions

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1104-01

#### Use of Climate Information in the context of helping prepare American military bases for climate change

L. Mearns (1) ; M. Rachel (1) ; M. Bukovsky (1)

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America

We will describe the work we have performed in two projects through the Strategic Development and Research Program of the US Department of Defense. We are providing future climate information to a total of eight different miliarity bases in the continental US. The kinds of impacts include damage from storm surges due to sea level rise, increased hear stress and potential increased damage from erosion because of increased extreme precipitation, increased extreme fire risk, and potential changes in severe storms. We discuss how we present uncertainty information to the stakeholders (military personnel) are each base, and discuss the different levels of interest or concern we found among the stakeholders based on their prior experience with extreme events.

## O-1104-01

#### Climate Science for Climate Services: Creating capacity within CORDEX-Africa

C. Lennard (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa

Within the Co-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the CorDEX-Africa initiative has been developed to analyze downscaled regional climate data over the African domain of CORDEX, train young climate scientists in climate data analysis techniques and engage users of climate information in both sector specific and region/ space-based applications. A series of engagements between African climate scientists and users of climate information under the CORDEX-Africa banner has begun and we report on the outcomes of these as well as the future plans of the programme. Established and young climate scientists from west, east central and southern Africa have analysed downscaled data from the CORDEX Africa domain and produced 9 scientific journal papers to date through a series of highly successful workshops, all first authored by early-career scientists or students. These papers have greatly enhanced the understanding of climate processes in each of the regions. Additionally, members from each region have been involved in workshops that engage users of climate information to co-explore the climate information needs of these communities. These
included (a) engagements with ecological, hydrological and agricultural scientists that helped refine some of the research questions to be addressed in later CORDEX activities, (b) with health sector practitioners in West Africa to understand their needs with respect to climate information and (c) representatives from five African cities to understand city-scale climate vulnerabilities and information needs. Planned activities include a series of workshops to analyse climate projection data in the 4 regions with input from climate information users to assess potential effect of global warming on atmospheric process and the impacts these may have in the engaged user communities.

## O-1104-02

### The FODAS based climate prediction services in China

Z. Gong (1);

(1) Beijing climate center, Beijing, China

The structure of China Framework of Climate Service, what we called CFCS to compare to the GFCS is building in China. Based on climate database and climate system model, climate monitoring and prediction products is issued. We focus on climate security and disaster risk reduction. Climate security is a new concept developed by Dr. Zheng Guoang, who is the Administrator of China Meteorological administration. Climate is really related to food security, water security, energy security and ecological security, and so on. We need to assess climate impact, climate capacity, to analyze climate resource and provide climate proofing to support sustainable development of social-economy in China. As China belongs to monsoon climate and is a very vulnerable country suffered from different kinds of meteorological disasters. Therefore, Beijing Climate Center (BCC) are facing big challenge of disaster risk reduction. We need to do disaster survey, to assess vulnerability, to issue risk warning even support risk transfer. Through the user interface plan and partnership, we provide all of those climate services to decision makers, public community and economic sectors. Besides, in order to support the capacity development of CFCS, the forecast system on dynamical and scientific skill (FODAS) is developed by BCC, which is used for supplying monthly and seasonal climate prediction services to the government and public. FODAS is also been generalized in more than 30 provincial climate centers in China and used for regulatory climate business. We are also working on developing a English version of FODAS to support some international training courses held in CMA etc.

## O-1104-03

### The fourth generation of European-wide climate change impact assessments - lessons and outlook

HM. Füssel (1); J. André (1)

(1) European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark

The European Environment Agency (EEA) is a boundary organization that bridges between data providers, including the scientific community, and policy makers. Its mandate is to provide timely, relevant and quality-controlled information on the environment to European policy makers (in particular the European Commission and the European Parliament), to national and sub-national policy-makers in its 32 member countries and 7 cooperating countries, and to the broader public. In 2012 the EEA published its third indicator-based report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability, following earlier reports in 2004 and 2008. The next report is scheduled for publication in 2016, and its preparation has already started.

The 2012 EEA report presents more than 40 quantitative indicators on observed and projected climate change and its impacts, most of them with European-wide coverage. The systems and sectors covered include coastal zones, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, agriculture, forests and forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, human health, energy, transport, and tourism. However, some important impact domains are not covered because information is not readily available at the European level, impacts are hard to quantify or to measure, and/or because the influence of climate change is hard to disentangle from socioeconomic, technical, cultural and political developments.

Under-reported impact domains include industry and manufacturing, insurance, infrastructure (except transport infrastructure), livestock production, cultural heritage (with some exceptions), migration, and general human wellbeing. Furthermore, the report presents cross-sectoral information with a focus on territorial impacts, on the vulnerability of cities and urban areas, and on climate change costs. The cross-sectoral assessments rely on information that is not fully consistent with the sector-based cross-sectoral assessments, because these indicators are often not amenable to aggregation due to differences in climate change scenarios, non-climatic scenarios, impact metrics, and/or incompatible modelling and assessment approaches.

This paper summarizes the availability of consistent information on observed and projected climate change and its impacts across climate-sensitive sectors and systems in Europe and identifies major knowledge gaps. It also presents the planning of the 2016 EEA report, including efforts for refocusing the indicator set in order to increase its policy relevance, improving coverage of information related to extreme weather and climate events, expanding consideration of cross-sectoral effects, and strengthening links between information on climate change impacts and adaptation-related issues. We also report on past and planned efforts at improving the assessment and reporting of uncertainties in observed and projected climate change and its impacts.

## O-1104-04

### Innovation in French climate services thanks to service design

P. Dandin (1); L. Corre, (2); D. L'hôte, (3)

(1) Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Méteo-linguistiques, Toulouse, France; (2) Météo-France, Direction de la climatologie, Toulouse, France; (3) Strate, Ecole de Design, Sévres, France

Within the framework of the French National Adaptation to Climate Change Plan, the "Drias, the futures of climate" service provides support and easy access to the French regional climate projections. Users worship the unleash of such essential materials and rank Drias as one of the major recent steps toward the development of French Climate Services. Noteworthy, Drias is a joint initiative from the French community, gathering the meteorological service, Météo-France, with the main providers of regional climate scenarios in the country, CERFACS, IPSL and CNRM.

However necessary and successful the initiative might have been, many questions arose. Some came from the scientists whereas others were raised by users. How really useful was this service for the end-users and decision makers involved in adaptation planning at local scale? Did it help them to figure out what kind of climate change was happening and what could be thought to cope with it? Had the French scientific community made all possible efforts and released the information available in the laboratories? Taking advantage of all the assets worked out in the field of climatology, could it be possible to improve the delivery? Did we miss something believing we were doing our best? With many such questions in mind, soon after the opening of the Drias service, a review and reflection exercise was initiated.

The Viaduc project has this target: to evaluate and enhance Drias, as well as to imagine future developments to support adaptation. Users had been closely associated to the building of Drias, but they were not end users. Viaduc chose to address adaptation with local communities, thinking about real needs at the end users' level. The chosen end-users are three Natural Regional Parks located in the South West region of France. Such parks are administrative entities which gather together municipalities defined by a common natural and cultural heritage. They are also rural areas in which economic activities do take place, and therefore concerned and involved in both protecting their environment and setting up sustainable economic development. Climate researchers work together with a service designer. The designer's role consists in proposing an innovative approach based on the interaction between scientists and citizens. Actually, the designer observes both partners: scientists and end users.

The first part of the project has been dedicated to investigation and questioning with relevant representatives. The Viaduc team did not initiate new actions in the parks, but insert into existing ones, trying to ease them. Three
key local economic sectors have been selected, which are forestry, agro-pastoralism and construction, relevant for each of the parks. Working groups composed of expert technicians, administrative and maintenance staff, politicians and climate researchers have been created. The sectors need for climate information have been gauged, and concrete actions are now undertaken. They will be presented in this communication, together with lessons learnt. The second part of the project has focused on the transfer of ideas to the operating teams. In order to give life in next generation of products to some of the recommendations that came out of this thinking exercise.

The feedback from the designer and the Viaduc team on the services delivered by scientific agencies and the meteorological service do modify the classical views. It concerns all aspects of the products and services, and addresses many various subjects, from the relationship between weather and climate, the need for local and perceptive information and messages, to the necessity of a greater coherency and simplicity of the message...

A quick introduction to Drias will be made, and the Viaduc project and outcomes will be presented.

## O-1104-05

# World Weather Attribution: A Real-Time Effort to Assess the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather and Climate Events

H. Cullen (1); M. Allen (1); F. Otto (2); D. Karoly (3); G.J. Van Oldenborgh (4); E. Coughlan (5); A. Van (5)

(1) Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America;
(2) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;
(3) University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia;
(4) KMNI, De Bilt, Netherlands;
(5) Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands

Climate Central and its partners at the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Melbourne, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre have established a new initiative called World Weather Attribution. World Weather Attribution aims to apply recent advances in the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution to build a real-time attribution capability designed to provide a probabilistic science-based connection between rising global greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and extreme weather and climate events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/ flooding, and droughts in real-time. The goal is to design and implement a coordinated, transparent, multi-method approach that incorporates observational data, modeling studies, existing peer-reviewed research (i.e., IPCC SREX, etc.) and on the ground reports in order to better answer pressing questions about trends in risk and the role of human activity in extreme weather.

Assessing the influence of global warming in individual extreme weather events has been a goal of the scientific community for more than a decade. Advances in the field have prompted numerous studies, leading the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) to dedicate an annual issue to extreme event attribution for the past three years. Currently, these studies require months to complete and are published well after public attention to the event has peaked, and when decisions on how to rebuild, for example, have already been finalized, often without attention to climate information on how risks of such events may have changed over time.

In fact, an analysis of media coverage of three recent extreme weather and climate events (2014 UK floods, 2013 Australian heat wave, ongoing California drought) conducted by Climate Central suggests that, despite strong public interest in better understanding the underlying cause of extreme weather and climate events, a significant majority of extreme event coverage fails to provide the broader climate context. While overall weather and climate coverage results in a large number of stories in the days to weeks following the event, attribution statements are rarely provided and often inaccurate as analyses are not available until several months later, after the media and public conversation is largely over and many recovery and reconstruction decisions have already been made, often based on limited information on changing risks.

Our goal is to apply established peer reviewed methodologies developed by the attribution community over the past decade - in an accelerated manner - so as to objectively assess the event in question and equip journalists, the public and decision makers with the broader context of changing risks, in some cases specifically due to global warming. To this end, the World Weather Attribution program will make extensive use of social science through experiments and robust literature reviews on the presentation of risk, probabilities, and uncertainty to guide the most effective deployment and presentation of these accelerated attribution statements. Here we discuss ongoing research that seeks to understand public understanding of the changing statistics of certain extreme weather and climate events and how best to communicate and apply attribution information.

## 1104-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1104-01

# Spatiotemporal Visualization Method for Interrelation-based Analysis of Agriculture's GHG Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Asian Region Using the 5D World Map System

B. Ahmed Muzaffar (1); A. Siti Nor Khuzaimah (1); S. Shiori (2); K. Yasushi (2)

(1) Keio University, Graduate school of science and technology, Yokohama, Japan; (2) Keio University, Graduate school of media and governance, Fujisawa, Japan

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions originated from agricultural activities have increased approximately two times over the past five decades. Mitigation and adaptation countermeasures must be taken to reduce or slow down the increment of GHG level as a result of unhealthy agriculture practices especially in most developing countries. Conversely, further increment in GHG emissions results in climate change and eventually affects the agricultural sustainability and food security.

To understand the complex system between GHG emissions and agriculture productivity, a regional and historical analysis is compulsory as well as for finding more viable solutions. By applying the 5D World Map system, we demonstrate spatiotemporal visualization to analyze the interrelation between agriculture's GHG emissions and agricultural productivity. In this analysis, we focus on Asian region since it is one of the largest contributors of global GHG emissions from agriculture sector itself.

The most significant contribution of this research is to unveil the interrelation-based analysis between GHG emissions and agriculture, considering the Asian countries geographical aspect and historical data records. We mapped the pre-sorted text data of Asian countries in Eastern Asia, South-Central Asia, South-East Asia and Western Asia from 1963 to 2013. Then, we visualized and analyzed the data by comparing various attributes, namely: types of GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) and annual crops yield. As results, we are able to observe that the spatial pattern of CO2 and CH4 emissions are relatively similar but slightly different in N2O emission. The temporally increasing trend of GHG emissions in some countries is observed as expected, as well as the decreasing trend in other countries, while we discovered that the spatial pattern of crop yield is contrary to expectations. Also, we emphasize the fact from real cases that the interrelation between crops yield and GHG emissions could be observed explicitly by the spatiotemporal visualization of the data. As an insight from these results, we consider to classify these countries into four clusters: 1) cluster with high agricultural productivity with low GHG emissions, 2) cluster with high agricultural productivity but lower GHG emissions, 3) cluster with low agricultural productivity and low GHG emissions and 4) cluster with low agricultural productivity but higher GHG emissions.

In this research, the visualization of specific GHG emission density by each country and its' crop yield were made possible through the 5D World Map system. The index ranking of each country with its' crop yield was visualized. Besides, new knowledge and possibilities existing between climate change and agriculture sector are discovered and
extracted from the visualization. Through this analysis, the countries which appear as more effective or less effective in both interrelated agricultural productivity and environmental management were clarified in this knowledge-sharing system for encouraging a deeper analytic process of regional policy making in agricultural GHG emissions and future agriculture management.

P-1104-02

Connecting the Dots: An Initiative on
Communicating Complex Climate Science
to Local Communities through Climate
Change Services

SK. Amsad Ibrahim Khan (1) ; H. Malleshappa (1) ; M. Jayanthi (1)

(1) Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC),
Department of Environment, Government of Tamil Nadu,
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in the local communities that are responsible for participating countries at the national, sub-national and local levels, to ensure public access to information and to promote public participation. However, this is a challenging task particularly for developing countries like India despite of other emergent and on-going developmental challenges. In this context, this article addresses an initiative taken by the Government of Tamil Nadu, India at the local level to address the global challenge of climate change, in a case study of the main objective of this contribution is to show a methodology/approach to connect the dots i.e. climate change "science-policy-society" and build capacity by communicating complex climate change science and its information at local level through effective climate change services, particularly, from the perspective of developing country's initiatives on tackling climate change. Thus, realizing this urgent importance, Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC) at the Department of Environment, Government of Tamil Nadu, India has laid a road map as "Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Services (TNSCCS)" based on the guidelines of the Global Framework for Climate Services of World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This has been initiated as envisaged in Tamil Nadu's State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) in par with India's National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). TNSCCS acts as a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change. It is considered as one of the major principal mechanisms through which information about the climate of the past, present and future is routinely archived, analyzed, modeled and exchanged. Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Knowledge Management System (TNSCCKMS) has been established and serves as a store house of locally observed and projected climate change information for the state of Tamil Nadu. Importantly, it provides a "web-based platform" and "user friendly interface" to disseminate and exchange climate change information for various communities ranging from bureaucrats, policy planners, decision makers to farmers, fishermen, students, children, general public and others. It is hoped that the information gleaned from the above mentioned method/approach of climate change services witness how best the complex climate change science can be tailored and communicated at local level. Importantly, it showcases a method/approach on capacity building through effective climate change information and services from global to local level.

P-1104-03

Role of social media networking in Climate
policies Awareness in Sub- Saharan Africa

M. Atombo Aleya (1)

(1) Solidarity for Rural Development and Local Governance in DRC(Tshwane University of Technology), Pretoria, South Africa

Climate policies awareness and/or knowledge are much required for the based-communities to mitigate the risk based on climate change and adaptation. In this respect, to spread awareness and/or knowledge of climate policies amongst African population by using social media is critical in raising ranks of awareness on the consequences related climate change. This research surveys the role of

Social media networking in contributing to climate change awareness in rural areas especially; African population living in sub-Saharan Africa where, the impact of climate change disrupts subsistence farming activities. In fact, Economy in Africa is mainly focused on agriculture and peasant activities. On the one hand, many Africans are still unaware of climate policies developed neither in the national or international scale that fit with climate change. In the other hand, AbORIGINAL people living in forest areas have trouble with the acceptance of certain prohibitions to hunt and harvest the wild fruits in parks and other protected areas. That is why. This study found out that, the ubiquitous of internet facilities in African continent based on mobile application are tools that can facilitate information propagation and communication, even though, these technologies practice and abilities are utilised independently by the hand users. As the rural people are vulnerable to climate change, they are also considered as key players for emerging climate policies to mitigate and cope with climate change's effects. It is a need to use Social media networking in a number of operative ways to enhance climate policies awareness or knowledge amongst them. Thus, Climate policies awareness remains the foundation of all other answers to climate change.Therefore, the main objective of this research is to interest African governments to adopt the information technology and communication technologies such as social media networking, local governments and non-profit organizations focusing on climate change and furthermore, questionnaires will be designed based on Five-point Likert scale on an interval level ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree").

P-1104-04

The WASCAL regional climate simulations
for West Africa - how to add value to exis-
ting climate projections

D. Heinzinger (1); C. Klein (2); D. Dieng (1); G. Smiatek (1);

MB. Sylla (3); J. Bliefernicht (2); H. Kunstmann (1)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of
Meteorology and Climate Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen,
Germany; (2) Augsburg University, Institute of geography,
Augsburg, Germany; (3) WASCAL Competence Center,
Climate Modeling and Climate Change, Ouagadougou,
Burkina Faso

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. The below-average rainfall in large parts of West Africa during the previous and the current monsoon season and the associated scarcity of food and fresh water highlight the importance of accurate predictions of future monsoon circulation for the people of this region.

WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to help tackle this challenge and thereby enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate services and increased variability. An integral part of the climate services offered by WASCAL is the development of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate scenarios with a special focus on West Africa. These are thought to complement and provide added value to current medium-resolution climate change simulations for the region such as the CORDEX-Africa projections. The WASCAL climate change simulation experiments utilize a multi-model ensemble approach to refine RCP4.5 scenarios provided by three states of the-art global circulation models: MPI-ESM, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 using three regional climate models (WRF, COSMO-CLM, RegCM). Spanning an area from 25°W to 25°E and 5°S to 25°N, and providing a large number of variables at 3-hourly time steps at a horizontal resolution of 12km, these regional climate simulations will be used to assess amongst others the impact of climate and land use change on temperature, precipitation, and on onset and duration