observations in natural gradients and around CO2 vents, perturbation experiments in the laboratory and in the field, as well as modelling. All approaches indicate that the effects of ocean warming and acidification on individual organisms are or will be widespread, and that they propagate at the ecosystem level. Warming induces shifts in the abundance, geographic distribution, migration patterns, and timing of seasonal activities of species, generating changes in the composition of ecosystems. Such distributional shifts may continue in the coming decades, increasing species richness at mid- and high latitudes and decreasing it at tropical latitudes. This will result in a global redistribution of catch potential for fishes and invertebrates, with implications for food security. A wide range of sensitivities to projected rates of ocean acidification exists within and across diverse groups of organisms, with a trend for greater sensitivity in early life stages. A pattern of positive and negative impacts emerges. The rate of calcification decreases in most, but not all, sea floor calcifiers such as reef-building corals, coralline algae, bivalves, and gastropods, reducing the competitiveness with non-calcifiers. The combined effects of ocean warming and acidification have resulted and will further result in changing interactions between species, including competition, predation and pathogen dynamics.

A considerable number of biological, chemical, and physical processes act at enormous ranges of space and time scales to control ecosystem properties. Few of these processes and interactions are understood because most studies are short-term, organism-centric and examined just one driver at a time. Gaps in our understanding and uncertainty in future projections therefore remain. Coral reefs are the main ecosystem which already exhibits prominent signs of the impact of climate-related effects but must be pointed out to cut seemingly stable ecosystems maintained by feedback mechanisms can be subject to abrupt ecological shifts. Taken together, these observations as well as the fossil record confirm links between ocean warming and acidification and responses of ocean ecosystems. There are no plausible alternatives to immediate, deep reduction of greenhouse gases emissions for limiting future ecological challenges and maintaining ocean services. It should be emphasised that reducing CO2 emissions to address ocean acidification will simultaneously address climate change but reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases to limit warming will not necessarily address ocean acidification.

The Oceans 2015 Initiative comprises 17 experts (D. Allemand, R. Billé, L. Bopp, W. Cheung, M. Colombier, S. R. Cooley, J.-P. Gattuso, O. Hoeh-Guldberg, F. Joos, R. Kelly, D. Laffoley, A. Magnan, H.-O. Pörtner, A. Rogers, T. Spencer, C. Turley and S. Treyer). It is supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Fondation, Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre, and BNP Paribas Foundation.

## K-2207-02

### Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities

#### O. Hoeh-Guldberg (1) ; T. Ocean 2015 Initiative (2)

(1) University of Queensland, Global Change Institute, Brisbane, Australia; (2) Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales, Paris, France

Earth's ocean plays a central role in its climate, absorbing 93% of the extra heat from the enhanced greenhouse effect, and approximately 30% of the CO2 emitted by the burning of fossil fuels and landuse change. While these contributions play an important role in reducing the rate of change in the average global temperature, they have come at a price in terms of shifts in ocean temperature and chemistry, and consequently a wide range of other key variables such as surface salinity, wind, pH, carbonate chemistry, stratification, ocean currents, nutrient availability, and oxygen content. According to AR5 of the IPCC we are now seeing changes in ocean conditions that are unprecedented, which in the case of ocean acidification, are "unprecedented within the last 65 Ma (high confidence) if not the last 300 Ma (medium confidence)."

These rapid changes within the Ocean are affecting the distribution and abundance of organisms and ecosystems, with important consequences for the goods and services that the Ocean provides to communities and nations worldwide. Fisheries and ocean-related livelihoods play important role in the lives of at least 3 billion people globally, with many nations receiving more than half of

the protein requirements from the Ocean. While often overlooked in terms of national accounts, contributions by the ocean to key issues such as food security, employment, health, and coastal protection are large and are only likely to become more important over coming decades. Consequently, understanding the regional challenges posed by a changing ocean is critically important in terms of adaptation challenges and opportunities.

A regional analysis of climate change reveals a range of responses by ocean ecosystems. Recent changes to wind and ocean mixing are influencing the transfer of organic carbon to deep regions, which has had knock-on effect of stimulating microbial respiration and reducing oxygen levels. There is considerable evidence and agreement that fisheries in regions such as the High Latitude Spring Bloom Systems (HLSBS) in the North-Eastern Atlantic are changing in response to warming and ice retreat, with both positive and/or negative implications depending on the particular HLSBS fishery. Other fisheries are relocating at a high rate, placing stress on regional management.

Equatorial upwelling systems (EUS) which support highly productive fisheries off Equatorial Africa and South America, have warmed significantly over the past 60 years. While warming is consistent with changes in upwelling intensity, more work is needed to understand how EUS will change in response to warming over time. The risks, however, a significant given the importance of these changes for ecosystems, fisheries and communities. Coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs mangroves are under significant pressure from climate change, along with local stresses. Elevated sea temperatures are driving impacts such as mass coral bleaching and mortality, with models projecting that coral-dominated reef systems will have disappeared from most regions by 2050. Given that an estimated 500 million people depend on coral reefs for food and livelihoods, addressing this growing source of exposure for some of the least resourced nations must be a priority going forward.

The regional analysis of climate change for ocean systems reveals an important yet poorly understood source of risk and vulnerability for the world's nations. As a consequence, there is a major need to address these information gaps, and pursue otherwise poorly developed adaptation options, especially in terms of building socio-ecological resilience for the large number of exposed nations. Establishing communities of practice, knowledge and solutions platforms, as well as creating an alliance of nations around the challenges posed by a rapidly changing ocean will only grow in importance over the coming decades and century.

The Oceans 2015 Initiative comprises 17 experts (D. Allemand, R. Billé, L. Bopp, W. Cheung, M. Colombier, S. R. Cooley, J.-P. Gattuso, O. Hoeh-Guldberg, F. Joos, R. Kelly, D. Laffoley, A. Magnan, H.-O. Pörtner, A. Rogers, T. Spencer, C. Turley and S. Treyer). It is supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Fondation, Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre, and BNP Paribas Foundation.

## O-2207-01

### Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions

D. Storch (1) ; L. Menzel (1) ; S. Frieckhaus (2) ; HO. Pörtner (3)

(1) Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Integrative Ecophysiology, Bremerhaven, Germany; (2) Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Scientific computing, Bremerhaven, Germany; (3) Alfred Wegeren Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

Organisms in all domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya will respond to climate change with differential vulnerabilities resulting in shifts in species distribution, coexistence, and interactions. The identification of unifying principles of organism functioning across all domains would facilitate a cause and effect understanding of such changes and their implications for ecosystem shifts. For example, the functional specialization of all organisms in limited temperature ranges leads us to ask for unifying functional reasons. Organisms also specialize in either anoxic or various oxygen ranges, with animals and
plants depending on high oxygen levels. Here, we identify thermal ranges, heat limits of growth, and critically low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations as proxies of tolerance in a meta-analysis of data available for marine organisms, with special reference to domain-specific limits. For an explanation of the patterns and differences observed, we define and quantify a proxy for organicism complexity across species from all domains. Rising complexity causes heat (and hypoxia) tolerances to decrease from Archaea to Bacteria to uni- and then multicellular Eukarya. Within and across domains, taxon-specific tolerance limits likely reflect ultimate evolutionary limits of its species to accretionization and adaptation. We hypothesize that rising taxon-specific complexities in structure and function constrain organisms to narrower environmental ranges. Low complexity as in Archaea and some Bacteria provide life options in extreme environments. In the warmest oases, temperature maxima reach and will surpass the permanent limits to the existence of multicellular animals, plants and unicellular phytoplankton. Smaller, less complex unicellular Eukarya, Bacteria, and Archaea will thus benefit and predominate even more in a future, warmer, and hypoxic ocean.

## O-2207-02

### Differential synergistic adverse effect of increased sea temperature and acidity on corals

P. Fantazzini, (1) ; F. Prada (2) ; E. Caroselli, (2) ; B. Capaccioni, (3) ; S. Mengoli, (4) ; L. Pasquini, (5) ; O. Levy, (6) ; JC. Weaver, (7) ; KE. Fabricus, (8) ; Z. Dubinsky, (6) ; G. Falini, (9) ; S. Goffredo, (2)

(1) Centro Forni and University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bologna, Italy; (2) University of Bologna, Marine science group, dep of biological, geol and environmental sciences, section of biology, Bologna, Italy; (3) University of Bologna, Department of biological, geological and environmental sciences, section of geology, Bologna, Italy; (4) University of Bologna, Department of management, Bologna, Italy; (5) University of Bologna, Department of physics and astronomy, Goodman faculty of life sciences, Ramat-Gan, Israel; (7) Harvard University, Wysse institute for biologically inspired engineering, Cambridge, United States of America; (8) Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Pmb 3, Townsville, Australia; (9) University of Bologna, Department of chemistry "g. cicianim", Bologna, Italy

Global climate change is predicted to affect marine organisms and ecosystems reliant on the accumulation of calcium carbonate structures, as coral reefs, potentially reducing the socioeconomic benefits these habitats provide. In the marine environment, two of the main stressors causing significant changes are ocean warming and ocean acidification.

Projections of future climatic change estimate a 0.6-2.0°C average increase in surface ocean temperature by the end of 2100, posing a major threat for marine organisms. In temperature areas, the effect of warming is expected to be even greater. The Mediterranean Sea is already showing warming rates three times higher than the global ocean. Increased seawater temperature in the Mediterranean Sea has determined longer stratification periods associated with mass mortality events. The first well-documented Mediterranean multispecies mass mortality events were during the summers 1999 and 2003. In both years, a positive correlation was observed between mortality rates and exposure to heat stress, indicating that shallow water corals are living, at least in the North Mediterranean, near their upper thermal limits during summer. Since the frequency of abnormally warm summers is expected to increase in the next century, as a result of climate change, such mortality events in summer may also become more frequent as a direct response to elevated temperatures.

Also ocean acidification is a global phenomenon which impacts our lives. The Mediterranean Sea has experienced a pH decrease of up to 0.14 units since the pre-industrial era, larger than the global average surface ocean pH decrease. Hence, understanding how enhanced acidity has already affected and how it will likely affect Mediterranean Sea ecosystems and their key taxa is urgent and crucial.

Given the projected decrease of seawater pH, the mass mortality events could be exacerbated by the combination of high temperatures and low pH. Studies like this one,

assessing the synergistic interaction between low pH and elevated temperatures, are essential to detect possible interactions between multiple stressors and establish to which extent corals inhabiting shallower ranges will be threatened by climate change.

Here we assessed the combined effects of in situ exposure to different acidity and seasonal temperatures on the mortality and growth rates of three Mediterranean corals: the solitary Scleractinia helianthellate Balanophyllia europaea, the solitary azooxanthellate Leptopsammia pruvotii and the colonial azooxanthellate Aroides calycularis. The corals were transplanted and observed in different seasonal conditions in proximity to a volcanic vent where water is naturally acidified to levels matching different future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios.

The results suggest differential synergistic adverse effects of increased sea temperature and acidity and different levels of resilience/resistance to climate change among temperature coral species, probably related to different modes of nutrition and/or biomineralization processes, making symbiotic species relatively less sensitive due to the increased photosynthesis at high CO2.

Acknowledgements: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement n° 249930 - CoralWarm: Corals and global warming: the Mediterranean versus the Red Sea

## O-2207-03

### Rising reef carbonate dissolution due to bioeroding microflora under climate change - an overlooked buffer process?

J. Grange (1) ; A. Tribollet (2) ; P. Cuet (3) ; H. Rybarczyk (4) ; A. Chauvin (3) ; M. Atkinson (5)

(1) UPMC, Isplo-locan, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Ipslo-locan, Paris, France; (3) Université de la Réunion, Entropie, Saint Denis, La Réunion, France; (4) UPMC, Borea, Paris, France; (5) HIBM, Kaneohe, United States of America

Since the industrial era, the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) has been rising. Consequently, the world's ocean is getting warmer and acidified. By the end of the century, IPCC models in the worst case scenario predict an increase of sea surface temperature of 4°C and a decrease of seawater pH estimated at 0.3-0.4 pH-units. As a consequence, the saturation state of sea surface (pCO2) with respect to calcium carbonate minerals (CaCO3) will also decrease. All these climatic factors are expected to affect calcification and dissolution processes, putting for instance in jeopardy coral reef ecosystems which are entirely made of carbonates. Among those processes, biogenic dissolution of carbonates due to bioeroding microflora (or euendoliths), which comprise cyanobacteria, algae and fungi, has been the most overlooked process and is currently not taken into account in biogeochemical models. So far, rates of biogenic dissolution were estimated by quantifying the volume of calcium carbonate removed by bioeroding filaments using microscopy observations. Although those rates are significant (up to 1.1 kg CaCO3 dissolved per m² per year in coral reefs), the question is how much alkalinity bioeroding microflora are able to release in the ocean, and how they are influenced by climate change (pH and temperature). In addition, all experiments recently carried out which highlighted the positive effects (pH ocean warming and acidification on biogenic dissolution, were realized under controlled conditions (mesocosms) in tropical regions over short periods of time (2-3 months). The long term dynamics of the process of biogenic dissolution under natural conditions remains poorly known. Here we present results of five experiments carried out in tropical (Hawaii, New Caledonia reefs) and temperate regions (Ischia in Italy) at different time scales (a few hours up to 4 years), to show that (1) the amount of alkalinity produced by bioeroding microflora is significant (as high as 71 mequiv m-2 d-1 which converts to a CaCO3 dissolution rate of 1.3 kg m-2 y-1 under constant light conditions in tropical regions), (2) biogenic dissolution can occur under various saturation states (0.8 < Ω ≤ 5 can both in temperate and tropical regions) and increases under rising pCO2 (by 50% to 250% depending on conditions) as long as the saturation state is above (otherwise carbonate dissolution due to chemical conditions limits euendolith development and thus, biogenic dissolution), and (3)
biogenic dissolution is more efficient (x2.7) when new carbonate substrates become available for colonization by microbioring communities in the summer season (higher temperature, light intensities, etc...) than in the winter season in tropical regions as colonization by the main agents of biogenic dissolution is faster in summer than in winter. These results suggest that at least in coral reef systems, global warming and ocean acidification will most probably stimulate the process of carbonate biogenic dissolution due to microbioring flora, accelerating the transition from a net coral reef accretion towards net coral reef dissolution. We estimate that today, at ambient temperature and pH in coral reef ecosystems, at most 20% of produced carbonates are dissolved by bioering microflora. By 2100, these organisms may be responsible for the dissolution of up to 70% of reef carbonates that are expected to be produced. If all dissolution processes are taken into account, i.e. chemical dissolution driven by water chemistry and bacteria metabolic activity, biogenic dissolution by bioering flora and biogenic dissolution by macrobracers (such as boring sponges), reef carbonate budget may become negative much earlier than 2100. The capacity of carbonate biogenic dissolution due to bioering flora in buffering seawater remains however, unknown and needs to be investigated in order to better understand carbon biogeochemical cycles and to improve predictions of the fate of carbonate coastal systems.

## O-2207-04

### From natural science to management: Pteropods as sentinel species for OA waters status assessments

N. Bednarsek (1) ; T. Klinger (2) ; R. Feely (3),

(1) University of Washington, School of marine and environmental affairs, Seattle, WA, 98105, United States of America; (2) University of California, School of marine and environmental affairs, Seattle, WA, 98105, United States of America; (3) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Noosa, Seattle, WA, 98115, United States of America

Pteropods are ubiquitously distributed pelagic marine zooplankton of importance in productive upwelling and high-latitude systems, where they represent an important food item for many of the economically, ecologically, and culturally important fish species. Because of their extreme sensitivity to ocean acidification (OA) conditions, pteropods can be used to establish cause and effect relationships between OA status and biological condition. As a result, pteropods can be used as a robust bioindicator for use in OA assessment. To demonstrate this utility, newly developed methods were used to determine and quantify pteropod responses in the natural environment. Biological responses, such as shell dissolution, shell calcification, changes in vertical distribution, and survival success were assessed to establish pteropod condition under a variety of OA conditions. We used modelling to estimate population survival rates based on future regional ocean acidification scenarios and to determine the level of sampling required to provide confident predictions. We found that pteropods provide a repeatedly quantifiable measure that can be used as a rapid and cost-effective biomarker to monitor biological response to ocean acidification conditions across scales of time and space of relevance to managers.

## O-2207-05

### Ocean acidification and its relevance to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in December 2015

C. Turley (1) ; P. Williamson (2) ; D. Herr, (3) ; K. Isensee (4) ; E. Harrould-Kolieb (5)

(1) Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom; (2) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (3) International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bonn, Germany; (4) IOC-UNESCO, Ocean Science Section, Paris, France; (5) University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Ocean acidification is a relatively recently recognised phenomenon, with recognition of its importance growing rapidly over the last few years. It is caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and it has the potential for widespread, damaging effects on marine ecosystems that will also impact human society. It therefore must be part of the debate on emissions reduction at the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris in December 2015. Ocean acidification brings additional arguments for encouraging national governments to rapidly reduce CO2 emissions and accelerate the transformation to a carbon-free economy, thereby reducing the impact of both climate change and ocean acidification. Emission pathways to stay within the 20C global warming target are under discussion by nations. However, ocean acidification impacts at the CO2 equivalent of a mean global temperature increase of 20C would already be substantial for some regions and ecosystems. To bring this important issue fully into the discussion, recognizing that ocean acidification is a major threat to societies worldwide, there would be considerable merit in the UNFCCC process formally embracing the ocean acidification issue in its COP-21 text and post 2015 agenda. Thus the UNFCCC could promote the mitigation of ocean acidification, and adaptation to its impacts, in all relevant policy documents and regulation instruments.

## 2207-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2207-01

#### MEAs, Mandates and More – A coordinated regime complex for ocean acidification

E. Harrould-Kolieb (1)

(1) The University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Ocean acidification, a complex global issue, results from the emission of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and is exacerbated by a myriad of local stressors. Its consequences are not limited by geography and largely occur in an area of the global commons. It has uneven impacts, results in both ecological winners and losers and has implications for biodiversity, economic stability and sustainable development, with its solutions intimately tied with other global problems. As a result, it is of relevance to many treaties and yet, does not fall neatly within the mandate of any.

It has been suggested that ocean acidification appears to exist in somewhat of a legal twilight zone (Baird et al., 2009), with no treaty body seemingly willing and able to take on the issue. Kim (2012, p.257) observes that ocean acidification sits within a very complex institutional landscape, at a rather cracked interface between the climate, biodiversity and oceans regimes." This ambiguity and lack of clarity around the responsibility for addressing ocean acidification within the international policy space is likely to be a contributing factor in the apparent lack of action to mitigate and further respond to ocean acidification (Kim 2012, Herr et al. 2014). As it currently stands, no single treaty or international instrument has been established to address ocean acidification as a stand-alone issue.

In response to the apparent lack of policy action on ocean acidification, the development of a completely new comprehensive treaty to respond to ocean acidification has been proposed. However, this is unrealistic, as there is likely to be little interest among states to do so. In light of this paper offers a alternative path forward by proposing the parsing out of activities needed to respond to ocean acidification across a range of existing multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), overseen by an umbrella body and thereby forming a coordinated ocean acidification regime complex.

A variety of applicable treaties already exist that could take on elements of a broader coordinated response to ocean acidification, add a number of already taking action to address ocean acidification within their own institutional capacity. For instance, the Convention on Biological Diversity is well placed to expand monitoring and assessment as well as address issues of biological adaptation; and MARPOL, concerned with issues of ocean dumping, has taken steps to regulate iron fertilisation and other geoengineering schemes. Despite clear concern about ocean acidification these treaty bodies are unable to act further to mitigate OA due to their inability to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. Conversely, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – the treaty deemed responsible for the regulation of CO2 emissions – is seemingly hamstring by the lack of mandate to incorporate ocean acidification into its activities. This paper concludes with an examination of the UNFCCC
mandate, and finds that ocean acidification falls within its purview, and hence proposes ways to better incorporate OA across its workings.

P-2207-02

« Bridging the Gap between Ocean Acidification Impacts and Economic Valuation »

N. Hilmi (1); S. Reynaud (1); M. Marc (2); L. Hansson (3); P. Batra (3); D. Osborn (4); D. Allemand (5)

(1) Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Environmental Economics, Monte-Carlo, France; (2) IAEA, Radioecology, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (3) IAEA, Iocch, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (4) IAEA, Director, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (5) Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Director, Monte-Carlo, France

Ocean acidification, is a growing environmental concern. The chemistry and therefore biology of world oceans will be impacted to varying degrees depending on region and type of ecosystem. Ocean acidification, through impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems, has the potential to seriously impact coastal communities and their economies. Communities ranging from mega-cities to subsistence fish villages differ significantly in population, maritime activity, reliance on marine natural resources and therefore their respective adaptability. Identifying the magnitude and types of impacts ocean acidification will have on communities will become a concern of governments of coastal countries seeking to maintain current marine activities and benefits.

In 2008, the Monaco Declaration (requested by HSH Prince Albert II) advocated for the development of links between economists and scientists in order to better evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of ocean acidification. In line with the Monaco Declaration and in accordance with the wishes of Prince Albert II, an International workshop series – « Bridging the Gap between Ocean Acidification Impacts and Economic Valuation » – was launched by the 'Centre Scientifique de Monaco' and the Environment Laboratories of the IAEA. Three workshops have been organized since 2010 all gathering multidisciplinary international experts, to work on providing recommendations and an appropriate methodology for considering different policy or management options. These workshops resulted in clear conclusions and recommendations for policy makers.

The first workshop (2010) focused on the impacts of ocean acidification on the global economy. For the first time the issue of ocean acidification is being taken to open the lines of communication and foster cooperation and coordination. The second workshop (2012) focused on impacts of ocean acidification on fisheries and aquaculture in different regions of the world. Social and economic impacts of ocean acidification on livelihoods, commerce and food security were discussed. What are the socioeconomic impacts of ocean acidification on coastal communities? The third workshop (2015) discussed impacts on major coastal fisheries and tourism activities, and considered ways to model the cascade of potential impacts of ocean acidification on human activities. The workshop also discussed potential adaptation and capacity-building options and policy responses available to these various sectors and governments. Each of the workshops provided a set of specific recommendations for policy makers on possible mitigation and adaptation measures, and research priorities.

P-2207-03

Response of the Eastern Mediterranean planktonic ecosystem to elevated CO2 and temperature: results from a mesocosm perturbation study

E. Krasakopoulou (1); P. Pitta (2); C. Frangoulis (2); L. Al-Moosawi (3); A. Giannakourou (4); A. Lagaria (2); N. Papageorgiou (5); S. Psarra (2); E. Souverezmoglou (4); T. Tsakaki (6); T. Tsangari (7); M. Tsapakis (2); A. Tsoli (5)

(1) University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, University Hill, 81100 Lesvos, Greece; (2) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of oceanography, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece; (3) Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, West Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, United Kingdom; (4) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of oceanography, P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece; (5) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of marine

biology, biotechnology and aquaculture, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece; (6) CNRS-INSU Université Paris6, Laboratoire d'océanologie de Villefranche, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France; (7) Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain

One of the fastest global changes caused by human activity is the continuing increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere which have now reached over 400 ppm (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/). Rising atmospheric CO2 is causing global warming and ocean acidification which can independently affect many marine organisms in a variety of marine habitats from tropical to high-latitude ecosystems.

Both acidification and warming are expected to alter the ecology of the Mediterranean Sea, although the evidence to date is sparse. A large scale mesocosm experiment focusing on the study of the simultaneous impact of warming and acidification on the planktonic ecosystem of the Eastern Mediterranean took place from August 30th to September 14th 2013 at the mesocosm facilities of HCMR in Crete, in the framework of the EU funded MedSea project (www.medsea-project.eu). Natural plankton assemblages were incubated for 3 m mesocosms to examine the impact of changes in carbon and temperature on biogeochemical variables and processes.

Two different pCO2 levels (present day and predicted for year 2100) were applied in the mesocosms for 2 weeks and tested in two large concrete tanks with different temperatures (ambient seawater: 25°C, ambient+3°C, 3°C, 4°C). Four triplicates of mesocosms were deployed during the conditions of current temperature and pCO2 (served as Control; C), Ocean Acidification (OA), Warming (W) and Greenhouse (GH).

The control of temperature in the two large tanks was made by means of a heating and cooling system connected to a control unit. Temperature was successfully controlled, exhibiting a nycthemeral variation of less than ± 0.5°C of the target temperature throughout the experimental period. The 'acidified' conditions were achieved by additions of CO2 saturated seawater during three consecutive days at the start of the experiment and then were let to evolve due to biological activity and air/ sea exchanges of CO2 till the end of the experiment.

The effect of acidification was evident in the Chla concentration (highly dominated by picoplanktonized fraction) and also in the pico-eukaryote density: Chla and pico-eukaryotes increased in both acidified treatments, whereas primary production was likely more dependent on temperature than OA. Bacterial abundance and production were not or only slightly affected by OA. There was also no effect of warming (even combined with acidification) on bacterial abundance; however a slight effect of temperature on bacterial production was observed. Alkaline phosphatase activity showed higher values under warm conditions, while it remained suppressed at lower levels in the GH mesocosms. No significant differences were measured for the phosphate turnover time between treatments, while the turnover times suggest P deficiency in all treatments for the duration of the experiment. P-uptake from different size fractions also showed no notable changes between treatments and experimental days. However, there was some indication of enhanced nitrogen fixation under warming conditions. Coprop eggs & Nauplii production (CP) varied significantly with time during the experiment. Acidification had no clear effect on CP, whereas acidification and warming resulted in a significant decline of CP and this decrease was higher than that observed at the warming conditions only.

The overall mesocosm experiment results showed that, for CO2 conditions forecasted for the end of the century, the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern Mediterranean Sea will prove resilient to increases in the ocean acidification. However, the warming will have a more important effect than acidification; and will enhance the effect of acidification on pelagic ecosystem functioning. The results obtained will help to gain insight on the dynamics and trophic efficiency of the food web under increased CO2 levels and temperature and may allow better predictions of the overall effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functioning of marine ecosystems.
Ocean Acidification: Global Issue, Local Effects

J. Newton (1); L. Jewett (2); P. Williamson (3); Z. Willis (4); T. Klinger (5); R. Feely (6); N. Bednarsek (7)

(1) University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States of America; (2) NOAA, Washington DC, United States of America; (3) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (4) US IOOS, Washington DC, United States of America; (5) University of Washington, School of marine and environmental affairs, Seattle, United States of America; (6) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Noaa, Seattle, WA, 98115, United States of America; (7) University of Washington, School of Marine Affairs, Seattle, United States of America

Ocean acidification is a global problem already impacting our coasts and oceans at scales that span from individual species to ecosystems to indigenous communities to human industry such as aquaculture. Efforts are underway at several scales to observe ocean acidification and its effects on biological organisms. We talk we present the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), as well as how national, regional and local networks can integrate within GOA-ON. The major characteristics of GOA-ON will be presented, including how this international network is interoperable with observing networks on smaller scales. As an example, we present data from the Pacific Northwest, United States and observed impacts on shellfish growth and pteropods. Programs from the states of Washington and Oregon and from the United States are being synergized to afford better observing and communication of these data in near real-time. This effort seeks to optimize interoperability and sharing of data. These contributions nest within GOA-ON and help to define our global status based on the mosaic of local views.

P-2207-05

Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

X. Wang (1); Y. Feng, (1); VR. Swail, (1)

(1) Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models.

In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010. The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-lattitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico).

More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., inter-model variability) is significant over 99.9% of the area; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than the climate change signal by 2099 over most areas, except in the eastern tropical Pacific where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model 2-scenario single-run ensemble of statistical Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the scenario uncertainty between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

2208 - Deep-sea ecosystems and climate-change: new perspectives to address knowledge gaps in impact assessment

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2208-01

Climate Change Challenges Ecological Functions of the Deep Half of the Planet

L. Levin (1)

(1) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Integrative Oceanography Division and Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, La Jolla, United States of America

Half of the planet's surface, and over 90% of its volume is covered by deep ocean below 200 m. We now know this realm hosts a wealth of different species and ecosystems that provide services critical to the health of the planet. Nutrient recycling, carbon sequestration, habitat and food web support of biodiversity occur on vast scales. The deep sea also contains fish, shellfish, hydrocarbons, mineral and genetic resources subject to growing demand from human society. The deep ocean is highly connected to the surface ocean and accordingly experiences both natural and anthropogenically induced climate variation. Ocean warming, ocean acidification, ocean deoxygenation and altered organic matter fluxes to the seabed are among the major deep-water manifestations of rising CO2 in the atmosphere. We are just beginning to document these changes and understand the implications for ecological function and resilience in the traditionally stable deep sea. Deep waters have absorbed significant heat from the

atmosphere, with potential effects on species metabolic rates, distributions, and interactions. Warming margins will experience gas hydrate dissociation, releasing methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing CO2 and carbonate undersaturation threatens the process of calcification and the resilience of deep-water coral reefs in the face of disturbance, particularly in the North Atlantic. Ocean deoxygenation and expanding oxygen minimum zones at upper bathyal depths can lead to biodiversity loss, habitat compression, and changes to webbs, all of which affect fisheries and livelihoods. Interactions among stressors are likely. Warming will interact with oxygen and the carbonate system (pH, carbonate saturation) to cross tipping points and shift ecological functions. Changing ocean conditions will alter fluxes of particulate organic carbon to the deep sea, influencing energy budgets and organism abilities to cope with climate stressors. Insights into potential future changes can be drawn from the study of deep-sea faunal responses to environmental gradients in space and to changes over time. By combining information from the paleo record and from patterns in the modern ocean, and by conducting experiments we can begin to assess how climate change might be manifested in the future deep sea. There remains an urgent need however, for a network that measures essential climate-change variables in the deep ocean over time and documents biological responses from the molecular and genetic to the population and ecosystem level. The influence of climate change on the function, resilience and recovery of deep-sea ecosystems and on the services they provide takes on added significance as societal exploitation of the deep sea introduces novel forms of disturbance and stress.
Evidence of change in deep-sea ecosystems: a societal concern?

A. Glover (1)

(1) Natural History Museum, Life Sciences Department, London, United Kingdom

Concerns have prompted renewed interest in the long-term ecological monitoring of large ecosystems. The deep sea is the largest ecosystem on the planet, the least accessible, and perhaps the least understood. Nevertheless, deep-sea data collected over the last few decades are now being synthesised with a view to both measuring global change and predicting the future impacts of further rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. For many years, it was assumed by many that the deep sea is a stable habitat, buffered from short-term changes in the atmosphere or upper ocean. However, recent studies suggest that deep-seafloor ecosystems may respond relatively quickly to seasonal, inter-annual and decadal-scale shifts in upper-ocean variables. At some deep-sea sites, progressive changes can be detected that could be linked to recent climatic change.

Why should society be concerned about changes in the deep sea when it is so apparently remote from most humans economic, social, cultural, aesthetic and ethical world? One answer is that it is one of our last great wilderness regions, filled with an astonishing reservoir of mostly undocumented biodiversity. Where it is documented, we have found examples of remarkable evolutionary and ecological novelty that have challenged the deep sea where life may exist, or have existed. In elsewhere in the solar system and beyond. The deep-sea, less constrained by time, has become a vast evolutionary experiment across one of the most ecological gradients on the planet, that of depth. Knowledge of this diversity, how it has formed and what role it plays in the global ecosystem should not be a hobby for enthusiasts, but a key tranche of the scientific and public understanding of our planet and how we attempt to manage it.

Marine cabled observatories as a new technology for the highly integrated environmental and biological monitoring

J. Aguzzi (1) ; A. Purser (2) ; L. Thomsen (2) ; JB. Company (3)

(1) Instituto de Ciencias del Mar (ICM-CSIC) (www.icm.csic.es), Recursos marinos Renovables, Barcelona, Spain; (2) Jacobs University, Ocean lab, earth and space sciences, Bremen, Germany; (3) CSIC, Institut de ciències del mar, Barcelona, Spain

Marine depths below 1000 m represent approximately the 65% of the planet surface, making of the deep-sea the largest biome on Earth. Presently, there is a lack of capability in fostering high-frequency sampling in deep-sea areas, which is limiting our understanding of oceanographic processes and their influence on continental margin and deep-sea life. Additionally, this constraint is hindering development of the marine ecological framework. In this context, marine species show rhythmic and massive population movements synchronous with physical cycles (light intensity, hydrodynamic tidal and inertial variations), over timescales not comparable with the frequencies of trailing surveys. As a result, significant errors,比如stock and biodiversity assessments occur over 24-h and seasons as a result of use of this "classic" sampling method. Also for more advanced ROV surveys a time-consuming and costly vessel support can be required, limiting the sampling repetition. A new technology should therefore be implemented in order to establish reliable: i. Faunal lists, key in deep-water ecosystems exploration; ii. Cause-effect principles, which link animal behavior to environmental changes; and finally, population assessments with sampling stations coordinated into geographic networks. Cabled sea floor observatories allow the continuous and real-time video-counting of animals, and allow these counts to be related to the oceanographic, chemical, and geologic multiparameters, as measured by sensor systems mounted alongside the imaging equipment. Video cameras may be the first true "intelligent" ecological

sensors operating at high level of ecological complexity (i.e. ecosystems fauna), as these can capture species rhythms and resulting overall community dynamism in an automated fashion. Automation may transform cameras into sensors delivering numeric outputs (i.e. visual count time series for the different species). Presently, networks of fixed monitoring stations, which include cabled seafloor and water column observatories, are being deployed to provide scientists and generic users with relevant data for the environment. The development of marine ecosystems at all depths, considering the geosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere as integrated components. These observatories are "historizing" data acquisition, delivering multiannual time series (i.e. into decades) of physical, chemical, and geological parameters. International networks include the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water-column Observatory (EMSO, www.emso.europa.eu) as a Research Infrastructure of the European Research Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI; http://ec.europa.eu/research/esfri/). At this stage of technological development, cabled observatories may be used forreliable ecosystem monitoring atdiscreet locations, i.e. the sensor platforms. In order to expand their field of coverage, crawlers (Univ. of Bremen; http://www.jacobs-university.de/ses/research/oceanlab/crawler; L. Thomsen IP) are a promising tool for extending the reach of the observatory to surrounding areas. Crawlers connected to benthic observatory nodes by umbilical multiagent multiparametric and multisensor expandable platforms. They can monitor the marine environment around the node with nested transect procedures which may be modified according to required changes in sampling strategies. Presently, crawler technology is in use at the largest infrastructural observatory network in the planet, the Ocean Network Canada (ONC; http://www.oceannetworks.ca/). A unit (namely "Wally") has been in operation for 5 years in Barkley Canyon (~890 km depth), video-surviving fauna in a geomorphologically active, hydrocarbon cold sea region of Pacific margin. In the future, crawlers could be standard equipment deployed with benthic platforms. Current developments are underway to automate crawler movements, with umbilical cables being superseded by submarine wifi communications, wireless power transfer and automated docking procedures similar to those developed for Space robotics (ROBEX; http://www.robex-allianz.de/en/).

2208-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

Habitats characterization of the new Caledonia deep sea ecosystems

J. Delavenne (1) ; P. Lozouet (2) ; L. Poncet (3) ; S. Samadi (1)

(1) museum national d'histoire naturelle, UMR ISYEB, PARIS, France; (2) museum national d'histoire naturelle, Service des collections, Paris, France; (3) museum national d'histoire naturelle, Service du patrimoine naturel, Paris, France

The impact of climate change on marine ecosystems at different levels is demonstrated by many studies focusing on various regions of the globe. New Caledonia and other south west Pacific islands are very vulnerable to these threats with sea level rise or ocean acidification which impacts coral reefs. New Caledonia Exclusive Economic Zone is 1.3 million km² and most of it belongs to the deep sea with ridges and seamounts which represent unique ecosystems not easily accessible. It has been shown that deep sea ecosystems can also be impacted by climate change and to evaluate these potential effects the considered ecosystems must be precisely described and characterized.

The exploration program "Tropical Deep Sea Benthos" launches sea surveys in the south west pacific for more than 30 years and 37 surveys (3800 stations) sampled the New Caledonian waters. This program gathers a worldwide taxonomist network and led to numerous new species descriptions. Here, we used this large taxonomic database to develop a multi taxa approach to describe species associations on the New Caledonia seamounts in relation to stable physical environment like depth or slope. Some of the studied species have really narrow distributions or are only known from one location; hence they can strongly depend on very local environmental conditions. The change in sea level or sea surface temperature and their consequences on the deep sea habitats could have a strong influence on these organisms.
This study represents a first attempt at the habitats characterization and species associations' description of the deep sea ecosystems of New Caledonia and will be used to implement conservation and management plans of the area.

## P-2208-02

### Impact of climatic events on deep-sea ecosystems: the response of cold-water corals to dense water shelf cascades

F. Lartaud (1); E. Peru, (2); N. Le Bris (1)

(1) UPMC, CNrs umr8222, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; (2)

CNrs, cnrs umr8222, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France

The cold-water scleractinian corals (CWC) are the main ecosystem engineers in the deep-sea, and thus play a key role in deep-ecosystems. They form reef structures that provide habitats and nursery grounds for a variety of species, including commercial or patrimonial species, making these reefs significant centers of biodiversity in deep water shelf settings. In submarine canyons, these habitats depend on the exportation of organic matter from the shelf to the deep-sea, and thus are closely related to climatic conditions. Particularly in the Mediterranean Sea, in the Gulf of Lion canyons, which is characterized by a seasonal meteorological and hydrological events, resulting from severe coastal storms or from the formation and sinking of dense water masses (i.e., cascading). The dense water formation occurs as a result of wind-induced cooling and evaporation of surface waters during winters. This annual pulsed phenomenon last several weeks, with strong inter-annual variation in intensity. The effects of the dense water shelf cascades on cold-water coral reefs are however poorly known. High densities of organic particles associated to the cascading events should constitute an energy supply but the strong currents result in major disturbance in the ecosystem functioning, with breaking of coral fragments.

Therefore, studying the response of cold-water corals to these cascading events is essential (1) to better assess the resilience of present reefs to the environmental dynamics, particularly in Mediterranean where the range and frequency of cascading events will change with the next future with the global warming, and (2) to determine the growth dynamic of fossil reefs, probably linked to past climate conditions.

The development of mark and recapture techniques, coupled with sclerochronological analysis, allows growth rate estimations at the polyp scale based on the identification of staining as a time marker in the skeleton (Lartaud et al., 2013) whereas the use of support cuttings of coral fragments give growth rate information at the colony scale (Lartaud et al., 2014). In situ growth experiments were conducted in the Lacaze-Duthiers canyon (between 340 and 520 m depth) on two reef-building cold-water coral species (Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata). The results show temporal changes in the growth dynamics, with a seasonal response of M. oculata, whereas L. pertusa appear less sensitive, and inter-annual variability presumably relied to the cascading condition. Nevertheless, the two species living in the same habitat exhibit distinct growth response both at temporal and spatial scales, which should be taken into account for further management strategies in the conservation of these species.

## 2209 - Transformative pathways to sustain marine ecosystems and their services under climate change

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-2209-01

State of the art in oceans and climate change research: Synthesis of the 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans (Santos, Brazil; March 2015)

**Bibliographic references:**

Lartaud, F., Pareige, S., de Rafelis, M., Feuilllassier, L., Bideau, M., Peru, E., Romans, P., Alcala, F., Le Bris, N., 2013. A new approach for assessing cold-water coral growth in situ using fluorescent calcine staining. Aquatic Living Resources 26, 187-196.

Lartaud, F., Pareige, S., de Rafelis, M., Feuilllassier, L., Bideau, M., Peru, E., De La Vega, E., Nedoncelle, K., Romans, P., Le Bris, N., 2014. Temporal changes in the growth of two Mediterranean cold-water coral species, in situ and in aquaria. Deep Sea Research II 99, 64-70.

## P-2208-03

### The climate-sensitive deep-sea ecosystem of the Lacaze-Duthiers submarine canyon: first steps of a long-term study of ecosystem dynamics and functions

N. Le Bris (1); P. Galand (2); F. Lartaud (1); J. Orignac (1); E.

Peru, (2); A. Pruski (1); B. Rivière (2); G. Veton (2)

(1) Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Observatoire de la Mer, UMR8222 LECOB, Observatoire océanologique de banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France

Submarine canyons are recognized as ecological hotspots on continental margins providing a number of services to ecosystems and humans. In the Mediterranean sea, these canyons are particularly threatened by cumulated anthropogenic impacts and climate change effects (including changes in deep water convection and extreme meteorological events). Several of these canons host abundant populations of deep-sea corals and may display even higher vulnerability to climate change, as these ecosystem engineers are particularly sensible to warming and acidification of deep waters.

Despite recent efforts in seabed mapping and dedicated physical oceanography monitoring, constrained access to these marine habitats largely limited the capacity to acquire basic knowledge on ecosystem dynamics. The complex links between environmental fluctuations and ecosystem functions therefore remains largely unknown. There is a critical need to fill these gaps in order to understand how climate forcing may challenge ecosystem stability and functions.

In this perspective, we established a multiannual integrated ecological study in the Lacaze-Duthiers submarine canyon (western Mediterranean Sea), which aimed to investigate key ecological functions in naturally variable conditions. The integrated experimental approach combined in situ growth studies of dominant cold-water coral species with the multidisciplinary study of sediment biogeochemistry in relation to microbial and meiofaunal communities.

The strong temporal variability of ecosystem components and functional rates revealed by these pioneer works further documents the strong influence of atmospheric fluctuations on these deep-sea environments, while providing first insights to the mechanisms underlying these interactions. These results set the basis for a long-term ecological study of this climate-sensitive deep-sea ecosystem and supports the implementation of effective mitigation strategies of the Lacaze-Duthiers canyon in the frame of the Marine Protected Area of the Gulf of Lion (Parc Naturel Marin du Golfe du Lion).

M. Barange (1); JL Valdes (2)

(1) Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom;

(2) Unesco, Oceanography, Paris, France

There are global concerns over the potential impacts of global environmental change on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. Initial assessments indicate geographically diverse impacts (Cheung et al. 2010), with significant consequences for the wellbeing of dependent communities (Barange et al. 2014). In March 2015, the IOC-ICES-PICES 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans was held in Santos (Brazil). This symposium followed the recent IPCC 5th
Assessment Report, which included a number of dedicated
ocean chapters. The symposium was a significant event
in the challenge to provide evidences and project impacts
of climate change on ocean physics and biogeochemistry,
ecology, phenology and biodiversity, fisheries and
foodweb, as well as on the use and communication
of uncertainties in projection methodologies. In this
presentation, the convenors of the IOC-ICES-PICES 3rd
International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change
on the World's Oceans, will summarise the main results
and highlights of the conference, to update the research
and user community on the rapidly developing research
field of oceans and climate change.

Barange, M., Merino, G., Blanchard, J. L., Scholtens, J., Harle, J., Allison, E. H., Allen, J., Holt, J., & Jennings, S. (2014). Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in fisheries-dependent societies. Nature Climate Change, 4, 211–216.

Cheung, W. et al: 2010. Large-Scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology. 16 (1). 24–35.

K-2209-02

Improving climate-resilience in fisheries
through rebuilding fish stocks in an uncer-
tain future

W. Cheung (1) ; T. Froelicher (2) ; M. Jones (3) ; V. Lam, (3) ; G. Reygondeau (3) ; J. Sarmiento (4) ; C. Stock (5) ; R. Sumaila (1)

(1) University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre,

Vancouver, Canada; (2) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland;

(3) The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada;

(4) Princeton University, Aos, Princeton, United States of America; (5) NOAA GFDL, Princeton, United States of America

Seafood is an important source of livelihood, nutrition and culture to many people, in particular, those in coastal communities. The Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) highlights that climate change (CC) is challenging sustainable management of fisheries by redistributing fish stocks and therefore catches, particularly with many tropical regions suffering decreases in fisheries production. Overfishing further exacerbates climate risks on fisheries by depleting fish stocks while stock rebuilding is expected to help improve climate-resilience. However, quantitative assessment of the contribution of stock rebuilding in reducing the vulnerability of global marine fisheries to CC, with considerations of projection uncertainties, is not included in IPCC AR5. Using multiple climate-living marine resources models driven by a range of emission and fisheries scenarios, we examine the scope of vulnerability reduction of fisheries under CC and different pathways to stock rebuilding. We show that both CC and fishing scenarios contribute significantly to changes in global fisheries yields in 2050. Overall, stock rebuilding increases climate-resilience of the fishing sectors and marine ecosystems. However, even with stock rebuilding, substantial climate risks, particularly in sensitive ecosystems such as tropical oceans, may not be avoided without substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission. Our results highlight the need for implementing integrated mitigation-adaptation approaches to improve climate-resilience for the fisheries sectors.

K-2209-03

Challenges and advances in climate proje-
tion methodology and their use in projec-
ting oceans futures

Sl. Ito (1) ; C. Enrique (2) ; J. Chan Joo (3) ; W. Muyin (4)

(1) The University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; (2) Rutgers University, Department of environmental sciences, New Brunswick, United States of America; (3) Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, Republic of Korea; (4) University of Washington, Seattle, Joint institute for the study of atmosphere and ocean, Seattle, United States of America

Increasing computational power, improved fidelity of
climate models and data obtained by global observing
networks have advanced our understanding of both climate
change and climate model evaluation. In addition, Coupled

Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) have contributed to improving climate model ability to reproduce past climates as well as climate variability through the use of ensemble modeling approaches. Nevertheless, typical model resolution is a half to one degree in latitude/longitude in the ocean model component, which makes it difficult to represent many ocean structures and phenomena important to marine ecosystems (e.g. upwelling, western boundary currents, eddies). Coastal areas are some of the most productive and biodiverse regions, and are dominated by mesoscale phenomena, which cannot be properly resolved by the climate models. One approach that is being used to achieve regional high-resolution climate-scale simulations is by nesting of a high-resolution limited-area model within a lower resolution large-scale model. Typically, information is downscaled from the coarse- to the fine-resolution region through an overlap in the domains. The high-resolution nest can explicitly resolve features missing from the large-scale model. However, when making a future projection, regional changes may also possibly affect the global climate (i.e. upscaling effects). Furthermore, model requirements are often different when considering ecosystems. For example, phenology is one of the most important items for marine ecosystems; a slight difference in the start of the spring stratification may result in a quite different marine ecosystem response.

Earth system models (ESMs), which include the carbon cycle, couple physics to lower-trophic-level marine ecosystem models. A common major weakness of ESMs lower-trophic-level models is the coarse functional group representation of zooplankton and lack of calibration with zooplankton abundances. This is partly because of the lack of a global database for zooplankton and partly because ESMs lower-trophic-level models have been designed to obtain accurate simulations of nutrient cycling and primary production but not necessarily for zooplankton dynamics. Nevertheless, zooplankton is a key component of marine ecosystems and it is our challenge to improve their representation, as well as the full marine ecosystem in climate models.

K-2209-04

Socio-governance considerations and the
impact of climate change on oceans and
fisheries

Y. Ota (1) ; R. Caddell (2) ; R. Sumaila (1) ; CM. Andres (1)

(1) University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre,
Vancouver, Canada; (2) University of Utrecht, Department of
law, Utrecht, Netherlands

Climate change represents a host of challenges and opportunities for the regulation of fishing effort. Stock displacement may lead to new and improved fishing opportunities in certain locations in a short time, while for other species climate change may truncate their natural ranges and biological processes. Fisheries management bodies will face difficult and often highly politicized choices in addressing the future regulation of fishing effort. These developments will clearly have a considerable impact both on fishing economy, society and the legal norms governing fisheries management and allocations. This paper accordingly examines the implications for international oceans governance raised by the impact of climate change on global fisheries, from both a societal and regulatory standpoint.

This paper will first examine the fundamental challenges
posed to legal and societal governance by global climate
change in the context of fisheries, identifying faultlines
within the current regulatory regime advanced under the
law of the sea that will be most affected by shifts in fish
populations. This paper then moves to examine a case-
study of how RFMOs and other regulators have responded
to population shifts and climate-induced reductions in fish
stocks in the emergent regulation of new and exploratory
fisheries. To this end it will be demonstrated that RFMOs
exhibit strong potential to regulate new fishing effort in a
precautionary manner and in accordance with ecosystem-
based management, perhaps in contrast to the way in
which many current stocks are being managed, although
the process remains nascent and iterative.

This paper also acknowledges that stock mobility and
regime changes could result in immediate stresses
to those that are capable of being vulnerable sociopolitical
and economically. Accordingly, this paper will examine
the response of small-scale fisheries (with a particular emphasis on indigenous groups) to climate-induced changes to populations, noting the potential implications to these communities. These elements will accordingly frame an appraisal of current and emerging demands upon fisheries governance and evaluate the ability of the present system to address human dimensional impacts of climate change on fisheries across global and local scales.

## O-2209-01

### Forecasting climate change impacts on tuna populations and fisheries

P. Lehodey (1); L. Senina (1); S. Nicol (2); J. Hampton (2); O. Aumont (3); B. Calmettes (1); A. Conchon (1); M. Dessert (4); AC. Dragon (1); P. Gaspar (1); T. Gorgues (5); M. Lengaigne (6); C. Menkes (7); O. Titova (1)

(1) Collecte Localisation Satellites, Marine Ecosystem Department, Ramonville Saint Agne, France; (2) Secretariat of Pacific Community, Oceanic fisheries programme, Noumea, New Caledonia; (3) LOCEAN, Paris, France; (4) IRD, LPO, Institut universitaire européenne de la mer, Plouzané la Trinité, France; (5) IRD/LPO, Brest, France; (6) UPMC, Paris, France; (7) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia

The industrial development of High Seas pelagic fisheries targeting tuna and associated (billfishes) species since the 1950s has taken place in a warming ocean. The short-living skipjack tuna is the most tropical and productive species while bluefin tuna is the most temperate and long living species, providing small but extremely valuable levels of catch. Rather than a single oceanic habitat, these species have overlapping, vertical and horizontal habitats defined by their preferences and tolerances developed over the evolution for several key physical and biological variables. Though some tuna and billfishes can move far in high latitudes searching for rich foraging grounds they all return to warm waters (roughly >24°C) for spawning, leading to seasonal migrations and complex population dynamics mechanisms interacting with several environmental variables. Therefore, characterizing habitats and projecting them in the future using IPCC scenarios is a useful but incomplete approach when investigating the impact of climate change on these species. The progress in the study of climate change impacts on tuna and associated species is reviewed with highlights on recent results based on a modeling framework developed to simulate the spatial dynamics of fish with mechanisms constrained by relationships based on the bio-physical environment predicted from coupled 3D models of ocean physics and biogeochemistry. This framework includes a Maximum likelihood Estimation approach allowing reconstructing past history of fish population, to dissociate fishing impacts from natural variability, and to forecast population dynamics under climate change scenarios.

## 2209-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2209-01

#### Multi-model ocean biogeochemical predictions: an innovative approach

M. Dessert (1); T. Gorgues (1); O. Aumont (2); C. Menkes (3); S. Nicol (4); M. Lengaigne (5); P. Lehodey (6)

(1) IRD/LPO, Institut universitaire européenne de la mer, Plouzané, France; (2) IRD/LOCEAN, Paris, France; (3) IRD/LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (4) Secretariat of Pacific Community, Oceanic fisheries programme, Noumea, New Caledonia; (5) LOCEAN, Paris, NIO, Gao, India; (6) Collecte Localisation satellite, Marine ecosystem department, Ramonville St Agne, France

Ocean dynamical-biological models are required tools to address consequences of climate change upon marine biogeochemistry and halieutic resources in the future. For the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) gathers results of simulations computed from several global models (CCGM, with different physical/biogeochemical Oceanic and/or Atmospheric components). Despite their ability in producing a consistent global warming trend for the future, they are known to display significant biases in the mean state as well as in the variability of the ocean for the historical and present periods along with tremendous regional discrepancies for the future climate variability and marine ecosystems. The

discrepancies between the biogeochemical response in these coupled models may arise from the very different biogeochemical components used, whose complexity varies from simple nutrient restoring schemes to the explicit representation of several plankton functional types based on very different physiological assumptions. As a consequence, the comparison of the predictions of these different coupled models, crucial to assess how biogeochemistry may vary in the future, has proven to be very challenging. However the tremendous consequences on higher trophic level predicted by models that use future climate scenarios advocate more than ever for a better understanding and quantification of the predictions uncertainties.

To pin point the most robust changes in response to future climates, we propose an innovative method using a single physical/biogeochemical ocean model (QMEO/PISCES) forced with a mix of more realistic atmospheric forcing fields (improved ERA-interim reanalysis) and atmospheric trends extracted from the coupled climate models for the RCP8.5 scenario. With this method, we produce «state-of-the-art» simulations of the dynamic and biogeochemical state of the ocean which span over the historical (1979-2010) and the future (2011-2100) periods using different climates from different coupled models but with common ocean/biogeochemical model. The advantage of this method is to constrain the mean spatial patterns of the ocean forcing fields to remain close to the observations, to retain the desired observed modes of variability while having the changes induced by the anthropogenic perturbations. Using outputs from six CMIP5 coupled models, this method has been successfully applied and the produced forcing datasets have been used to force our dynamical/biogeochemical model for the future period.

These forced simulations exhibit spatial pattern of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) exhibiting similar to the one seen in the corresponding coupled climate models. However, a noticeable difference between the forced and the coupled models can be seen in the equatorial Pacific, and is related to a well known bias of the coupled models (i.e. too weak equatorial upwelling) mostly attenuated with our method. The different forced model simulations exhibit either contrasting or similar patterns between what is produced by our simulations and what is produced by the corresponding climate coupled models. They also exhibit a weaker spread in their biogeochemical projections as compared to the original coupled solutions. It suggests that discrepancies in the modeling of biogeochemical processes in the coupled climate models play a crucial role in the biogeochemical projections. However the latter those projections produced by our forced strategy do still show significant differences. As an example, our forced simulations predict a decrease at the end of the century between 5% and more than 10% of the global Primary Production. The volume of the oxygen minimum zone (O2<5mmol.m⁻³) is also increasing with values bracketed between 20% and 50%. Those changes depend only on the diverse climates used to build our forcing sets. This allows understanding which of the biological patterns are robust across the diverse climates but also which of the biogeochemical models have a functioning different from ours, under a similar climate.

In a companion abstract, our simulations of future biogeochemical states of the ocean are used to force a model of tuna stocks (SEAPODYM) to characterize the potential for future tuna stock changes.

### P-2209-02

#### Evidence for trophic amplification and attenuation of climate change impacts on groundfish species productivity in the Bering Sea, AK

K. Holsmans (1); A. Hollowed (2); K. Aydin, (2); J. Janelli, (2) and A. Punt, (3); A. Hermann, (4)

(1) NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America; (2) NOAA, Alaska fisheries science center, Seattle, United States of America; (3) University of Washington, School of aquatic and fishery sciences, Seattle, United States of America; (4) University of Washington, Joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean, Seattle, United States of America

Climate change is expected to impact marine ecosystems globally, with largest changes anticipated for arctic and
sub-arctic ecosystems. We used multi-species stock-assessment models to link climate-driven changes in physical and trophodynamic conditions to recruitment and mortality of three Eastern Bering Sea groundfish species ( Gadus chalcogrammus, G. macrocephalus, and Atheresches stomias, herafer pollock, P. cod, and arrowtooth, respectively) in order to distinguish harvest impacts on fish populations from large-scale climate pressures. When we compared model projections under climate scenarios to those under mean historical conditions, we generally found declines in estimated acceptable biological catch (ABC) for pollock and declines in recruitment for both pollock and P. cod. However, projected declines in ABC were sensitive to model specifications of trophic interactions, specifically the strength of bottom-up or top-down controls. Stock assessment models with predation had the largest projected declines in ABC, whereas single-species models without bottom-up controls on recruitment had the lowest projected changes in ABC. Inclusion of trophic interactions amplified climate-driven declines or increases in fish abundances, implying that fisheries models that do not include trophic interactions or climate effects might over-estimate sustainable harvest rates for fish species negatively impacted by climate change (e.g., pollock), and under-estimate harvest rates for predator species positively impacted by climate change (e.g., arrowtooth). Our work emphasizes the need to evaluate multiple future scenarios and model structures when projecting climate effects on fishery species.

P-2209-03

# Climate Change Affects Marine Fish Distribution: Temporal and Latitudinal Evolution. Approach using GIS Technique and Satellite Data for Data-poor Areas

A. Kaimuddin (1); R. Laë (2); L. Tito De Morais (3)

(1) Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM)
Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement MARIN (LEMAR), Plouzane, France; (2) IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/IFREMER), INRH, Casablanca, Morocco; (3) IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/Ifremer), IUEM, Plouzane, France

Accurate knowledge of physical ocean conditions, i.e. sea surface temperature distribution and temporal variation is needed as a key input in many modeling types that are widely used for various applications. Climate varies naturally across a range of temporal and regional scales reflected by the change in pattern of marine species. Currently, global studies on how temperature changes have been performed in several articles, while studies in smaller region are still few. Besides, collecting the necessary quantitative data on a smaller region is costly.

The most powerful way to collect such comprehensive data is through the use of satellite sensors that measure different types of energy coming from the Earth. Using 30 years recent version of AVHRR SST dataset Pathfinder 5.2 from NOAA polar-orbiting satellite, we observed change of sea surface temperature and its effect in marine species distribution in three marine regions defined in LME (Large Marine Ecosystems) and ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea): Canary current, the South European Atlantic Shelf and the North Atlantic. Species richness in the middle region is generally higher because many species have their southern or northern distribution limits. The zoogeographic importance of this latitudinal area has long been recognised, representing the transition between north-eastern Atlantic warm-temperature and cold-temperature regions, which makes the zone an area of great sensitivity to the detection of climate change. The magnitude and variation change are differences among the ecosystems. We found that the species distribution of three fish species living in different environments: pelagic (Pomatostoma saltatrix), benthopelagic (Balistes capricus), and demersal (Solea negalensis) to demonstrate the effect of climate change in marine fish distribution. The ability of GIS technique with the integration of Python programming language and the use of global marine environmental raster data from satellite remote sensing, such as sea surface temperature from AVHRR over the past three decades and other oceanic parameters from MODIS and the incorporation of world bathymetric data from GEBCO along with its derivatives, we were able to demonstrate the potential distribution of marine fish species in space and time and to capture their northern and/or southern limits as well as to follow the evolution of their suitable area from 1981 to 2013. All species showed

a northbound trend. This confirms a clear evidence of ocean warming effect in shifting marine fish distribution.

The models of species potential distribution were built by projecting the species environmental envelope on the environmental raster time series data. Species environmental envelope or the species realized niche were calculated by estimating the relationship between species records at given sites and the environmental characteristics of those sites with respect to the time of observation. The species records came from various databases. The use of Python programming language for GIS under ArcGISTM environment, allows us to extract the environmental raster values at the locations of species records at the time of observation. This new approach minimizes the biases from different sampling techniques among data sources as well as issues of small sample data size. When cross-checked with the species' environmental envelope defined in experimental or observational studies, the result yields coherent results for all species observed. Presentations in the form of animated maps, tables and graphics show the evolution of species' suitable area over time. This approach can be used to generate environmental envelope for a wide range of organisms as well as their potential distribution in data-poor areas and bring a better understanding of climate change effects in the ecosystems. The model will provide valuable information for conservation planning, fisheries, and climate change studies and furthermore contribute in the comprehension of species distribution study as well as management and conservation strategies.

P-2209-04

# Slight impacts of marine animals on ocean biogeochemistry under global climate change

S. Lefort (1); O. Aumont (2); O. Maury, (3); L. Bopp (4)

(1) CNRS, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Paris, France; (3) IRD, Sète, France; (4) CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

We compared two transient climate change simulations of a global coupled biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks of marine animals on biogeochemistry. We found that marine animals have little effect on the biogeochemistry of carbon, but they modify the Net Primary Production (NPP) and oceanic oxygen content. These results imply that marine animals take no significant part in the oceanic storage of carbon under climate change. However, as a link of the food chain, they may attenuate the decrease of NPP under climate change through top down effect, favoring their food supply. On the other hand, as aerobic species, marine animals contribute to decrease carbon and increase the volume of hypoxic/ anoxic water in the ocean, reducing their habitats.

P-2209-05

# Effect of rising sea surface temperatures on the extension rates of the massive coral Porites spp from the Philippines

M. Manglicmot (1); C. Ringor, (2); FP. Siringan (3)

(1) UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology and UP Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, Quezon City, Philippines; (3) University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines

The integrity of coastal ecosystems is threatened by the effects of warming ocean waters brought about by global climate change. Thermally-sensitive species such as zoanthellate corals and the reef structures they form are to suffer as they operate at optimal temperatures between 25 to 28°C. Long term coral growth band data provide a continuous record of the responses to increasing sea surface temperatures (SST). Extension and calcification rates of massive corals were enhanced at the onset of warming in the twentieth century but recent studies on the Great Barrier Reef, the Red Sea and the Thai-Malay peninsula reported declines with the further increase in SSTs after the 1990s. Other reefs however showed contrasting results with extension and calcification rates higher at present. The variable results of the studies highlight the need to investigate local responses to increasing SSTs. Philippine reefs comprise 8% of the world's total, following Indonesia
and Australia and is part of the Coral Triangle, described to be centre of marine biodiversity. The impacts of climate change to the country's reefs cannot be understated. In this study coral growth band data was used to establish the responses of Porites spp from reefs in the Philippines to changes in sea surface temperature over a period of 48 years (1956 to 2004). The linear extension rates (LERs) of Porites spp corals from the Calaguas Islands (north Philippine Sea), Parola Island, Kalayaan Group (Spratlys (West Philippine Sea), Pamilcan Island (Bohol Sea) and Ayuki and General Islands, Surigao (south Philippine Sea) were measured from the density banding patterns of the coral skeleton revealed through x-radiography. Linear regression and time series analyses were performed to determine interannual and long-term changes in the extension rates. Time series of standardized anomalies of annual LERs of the Porites spp corals from the Philippines all show high interannual variability but the long-term displays a more consistent pattern. The LERs of Porites spp are highly correlated to calcification rates and this decline in extension consequently reflect a decline in the calcification rates of Philippine corals. Different responses at the local level are also evident: the Porites spp from the Calaguas and Surigao reefs the LERs declined significantly at ca 0.38 mm per year and ca 0.16 mm per year respectively. Pamilcan Island showed a significant increase in extension of ca 0.22 mm per year however a sharp decline in the extension rates of Pamilcan Island colony after 2000 is evident. The LERs of the Spratlys colony also decreased but the trend was not significant. The variable results even at the local level indicate complex responses of corals to warming ocean waters. Local factors such as wave energy exposure and interannual climate oscillations such as ENSO may enhance or counteract the effects of higher SSTs. Nevertheless, an overall decrease in the mean extension rate of Porites corals on a national scale (0.097 mm per year) with an increase in mean annual SSTs of ~0.6°C from 1956 to 2004 was determined and is a cause for alarm as the decline in extension rates and calcification rates of a major reef builder coral, the Porites spp, maybe widespread throughout the Indo-Pacific region.

P-2209-06

Will atmospheric changes impact bioluminescent organisms in the abyss?

S. Martini (1) ; C. Tamburini (2) ; S. Escoffier (3) ; D. Nerini (2)

(1) IRD, irpignan, France; (2) MIO, Marseille, France; (3) In2p3, Marseille, France

The sampling and understanding of complex environmental systems over long time scales aims at the detection of potential disturbances as a shift from the intrinsic variability of these systems. Marine systems are variable at all time and space scales and their variability is still poorly understood due to sampling strategy, instrumentation and spatio-temporal heterogeneity challenges. In response to this lack of knowledge, there is an international effort to capitalize observed geophysical data and costs of autonomous and for mobile infrastructures that enables the detection of long term environmental context as well as episodic events or perturbations.

The deep-sea ecosystem is unique because of its permanent darkness, coldness, high pressure and scarcity of carbon and energy to sustain life. Most of its biological decline on the arrival of carbon in the form of organic matter from surface waters. Ninety percent of the numerous pelagic organisms that inhabit the deep ocean are capable of emitting light through the chemical process of bioluminescence. In this context, the ANTARES® neutrino telescope is a deep-sea cabled observatory situated in the north-occidental Mediterranean sea, close to the French coast. An unanticipated application is to provide a direct method to detect in situ bioluminescence from deep marine organisms, between 2200m and 2500m depth.

Our two recent studies show that high bioluminescence intensity periods have been detected since 2006 and are attributed to major water-mass changes due to winter convection. Dense deep water formation occurs during late winter and early spring due to cold, strong and persistent northern winds (Mistral and Tramontane) causing surface cooling of the Modified Atlantic Water both on the shelf and over the deep basin. When the cooled shallow waters on the shelf become denser than the ambient waters, they start sinking, overflow the shelf edge, and cascade downslope until they reach their density equilibrium depth,

which may vary from 150 m to more than 2,000 m. These open-sea convections represent a major vector in fueling the deep-sea ecosystem with nutrients, carbon, oxygen and potentially organisms. Such water mass changes have been shown to induce higher bioluminescence emission. Indeed, the input of organic matter into the deep water has the potential to fuel the deep-sea biological activity. Bioluminescent bacteria are potential contributors to high bioluminescent events affected by environmental growth conditions.

Dense water formation is likely to be altered by the on going global warming. Recent models based on the A2 IPCC scenario indicate a strong reduction in the convection intensity in the Mediterranean Sea for the end of the 21st century. This will induce a massive reduction in organic matter supply and ventilation by oxygen input of the deep basin and impact on phytoplankton organisms that could be detected by bioluminescence survey.

*Astronomy with a Neutrino telescop and Abyss Environmental RESEARCH

P-2209-07

National ocean modeling for Philippine coral reef connectivity

MM. Noblezada (1) ; C. Villanoy (1) ; D. Manalaysay (1) ; KM. Yatco (1) ; PL. Cadelina (1) ; P. Pata (1) ; C. Benjamin (1) ; A. Yniguez (1)

(1) Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Dilieman, Quezon City, Philippines

The Philippines being an island nation of 7,100 islands, has one of the longest (34,000 km) coastline in the world characterized by highly complex bathymetry and hydrography. The country's reef system is extensive (25,000 km2) and its rich marine life is world acknowledge. Coral reefs are critically important ecosystems, as they provide valuable services including resources for coastal communities, buffer vulnerable coasts from storm surges and habitat to various marine organisms. However, the country's coral reef system is in a degraded status attributed to various factors including unsustainable exploitation, sedimentation, and more recently events related to climate change such as extreme storms and coral bleaching which have led to declines in the function and resilience of these important ecosystem. Furthermore, Philippines is among the ten most vulnerable nations in the world affected by the impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise and severely damaging typhoons. Key capabilities such as numerical and biophysical modeling and their visualize outputs are valuable due to their capacity to provide a broad overview of connectivity patterns by tracking population sources and sinks as well as predictions of past and future hydrodynamic events. There is a growing evidence and efforts acknowledging connectivity and tracking population sources and sinks play an integral role to bolster resilience and ability of the reef populations to survive disturbances particularly related to climatic change such as typhoons, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns predation and diseases, any of which may increase and severity with changes in climate. This information as well can assist in the identification and monitoring of important or vulnerable habitats and designing management and conservation strategies. Here we present and describe the application of these approaches in determining patterns of reef connectivity in the Philippines. Philippine scale HYCOM model nested to the global HYCOM model runs for both real-time and hind cast mode and Lagrangian particle tracking model driven by the HYCOM hydrodynamic model to estimate coral reef connectivity patterns and matrices will be implemented. Model output will be offered for access near real-time via an OPENDAP server to be set up for disseminating model results. Ongoing model simulations and preliminary results are presented.

P-2209-08

The High-latitude Coral reefs of South Africa: A Canary in the Coral Coal Mine?

M. Schleyer (1)

(1) Oceanographic Research Institute, PO Box 10712, Durban, South Africa

Coral reefs are amongst the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate change. They occur at high-latitude in South Africa where they are at the southernmost limit of their
African distribution and are not accretive. While aragonite saturation and temperature are at levels that limit their growth, other factors including turbulence also play a role in their attenuation. The reefs are nevertheless rich in biodiversity, having 90 scleractinian and 40 alcyonacean species. Temperature and community monitoring commenced on the reefs in the early '90s and subtle shifts in coral community structure have been recorded, shifting from a tendency toward soft coral dominance to that of hard corals. Significant coral bleaching occurred in the austral summer of 2000/2001 when sea temperatures exceeded 28°C during a period of high insolation. Molecular work has shown that the corals are regionally rather isolated and ecologically independent of gene flow from northern reefs along East Africa. There even is a measure of spatial genetic structure in the corals studied at the reefal scale; the populations appear to be largely self-seeding. Furthermore some of the more northern South African reefs seem to act as landing sites for putatively recruited migrants and have high levels of unique or private alleles. This degree of isolation and the stress to which these high-latitude corals are naturally subjected make them an excellent laboratory to examine the effects of climate change, viz. increasing temperatures and ocean acidification (OA). They may well manifest some of these effects in advance of the global future of corals. Representative coral species are thus under intensive study in the face of these stressors, in terms of their reproduction, recruitment, the incidence and progress of disease, and genetic adaptation. This is being accomplished in the field and a research aquarium equipped to manipulate temperature and OA. Results will be presented of completed and current work, showing the responses of the corals to these stressors, as well as observations on range shifts in their distribution. However, at least the South African coral reefs are well conserved in a marine protected area and real health appears to mitigate against some of the effects of global change.

P-2209-09

## Projecting the state of the Mediterranean Sea Ecosystem under contemporary and future climate

C. Solidoro (1); P. Lazzari, (1); G. Galli, (1); MC. Donata (1); G. Cossarini, (1); T. Lovato, (2); M. Vichi, (3); C. Martin, (4) (1); M. Giannoulaki, (5); M. Scardi, (6)

(1) Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, oceanography, Trieste, Italy; (2) centro mediterraneo cambiamenti climatici, bologna, Italy; (3) university of cape town, cape town, South Africa; (4) united nation environmental program world conservation, Marine assessment and decision support, cambridge, United Kingdom; (5) hellenic centre for marine research, iraklion, Greece; (6) universit to tor vergata, roma, Italy

A suite of validated three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical-ecological models is used to assess the impact of future climatic and management scenarios on biogeochemical and ecological properties of the Mediterranean Sea. Results are discussed in term of temporal and spatial distributions of variables and indicators related to physical fields, carbonate system, cycles of carbon and inorganic nutrients, potential changes in higher trophic level organisms dynamics and in the distributions of critical habitats such as Posidonia oceanica and coralligenous formations.

The models properly describe available experimental information on contemporary seasonal dynamic and spatial distributions at the basin and sub-basin scales of the major biogeochemical parameters, as well as of primary production, carbon fluxes at the air-ocean interface and spatial distribution of critical habitats.

Model projections suggest that the future Mediterranean Sea will be globally warmer and more acidic, but with significant space variability. Plankton productivity and marine carbon sequestration would increase, even if the net primary production will remain at present level. Model results also indicate that changes in environmental parameters will alter the suitabilities of Poseidonia and Coralligenous over large areas, likely causing a reduction of those habitats. Intensification of extreme events occurrence will impair the survival of red coral banks, decrease marine carbon sequestration, negatively impact aquaculture production. Simulations also highlight the possibility to compensate for adverse effects of climate changes on economic activities by relocating them or by changing management policies.

P-2209-10

## Economic valuation and ecological status of coralligenous habitats under climate change

L. Thierry De Ville D'avray (1); J.P. Féral, (1); D. Ami, (2); A. Chenuil, (1); R. David (3)

(1) IMBE, Marseille, France; (2) GREQAM, Marseille, France; (3) CNRS, IMBE, MARSEILLE, France

Climate change first impacts are on ocean temperature, acidification, nutrient content. In this context marine ecosystems may evoluate in a «no return state». How will be this state? Study are on progress on marine living beings, but many incertitude remains.

Coralligenous habitats are typical Mediterranean marine coastal habitats identified on most Mediterranean coast at depths between 20 and 120 m. These biogenic hard bottoms, mainly formed by calcareous rhodophytes develop in conditions of reduced light, and at temperature of 13-20°C. With about 1670 species recorded they are among the most important sources of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean with Posidonia meadows (UNEP, 2007). This rich biodiversity and ecological functions inherent to the ecosystem are the source of a set of ecosystem services or «biological processes which man can benefit» (Bouvron, 2009). Their use or their perception by Human gives amenities that can lead to an economic evaluation. Current knowledge on coralligenous allows to affirm their contribution to (i) the production of food resources and raw materials, (ii) the regulation of coastal ecosystems, and (iii) the realization of recreation during fishing thanks to their attractive landscape and abundance of «gourmet» species.

Are the "right" to access to this resource around Mediterranean sea equal? What are the different factors that influence the repartition of valuable species, for food security and food "confort"? The study will demonstrate that ecosystem services from coralligenous habitats and economic value of some of these services are impacted by climate change. The impact in quantity and quality of services, may affect the access to different services, and thus their value.

# 2210 - Coastal Impacts of Climate Change

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2210-01

## Towards a coastal vulnerability typology for small islands: Assessing diversity and similarity via a common framework

R. Mclean (1)

(1) University of New South Wales, School of physical, environmental and mathematical sciences, Canberra, BC ACT, Australia

The Small Islands chapter of the IPCC AR5 reaffirmed the

vulnerability of small islands to climate change threats due to their inherent physical and human characteristics, high exposure to extreme events, and to the high dependence of island communities and economies on threatened ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangrove forests. It also emphasized that small islands present diverse risk profiles - a point that has not been sufficiently recognized in the literature. The chapter invited the scientific community to include island diversity in future V & A assessments within a consistent methodology appropriate at regional, archipelagic and island scales.

Envisaged was the design of a new island typology reflecting both the heterogeneity and homogeneity of islands and island coasts that also included a range of climate-ocean processes and not just sea-level rise.
Over the past three decades many coastal vulnerability assessments have been undertaken in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, Indian and Pacific Oceans most of which have applied a predetermined methodology with an emphasis on sectors, e.g. water, human health and agriculture, on certain coastal types, e.g. deltas, mangrove shores and many beaches, and with an almost singular focus on sea-level rise. None of the assessments have: (1) covered whole regions; (2) dealt with the full range of coastal types on islands; or (3) considered the entire suite of climate-change drivers.

A prototype of a new typology that satisfies these criteria has been developed in the Pacific covering 15 countries and 1532 islands. The objective was to produce a regional coastal vulnerability typology based on the inherent geomorphological characteristics of islands and all relevant ocean processes that drive coastal change. Development of the typology comprised a series of nested scales with increasing spatial and temporal resolution at each step from all islands to a coastal segment of a single island. Initially islands were classified into 8 types based on two simple characteristics: lithology (rock type) and maximum elevation. To these attributes were added island area and shape to develop an 'indicative susceptibility'. This index recognized that certain island types are inherently more susceptible (less resistant) to change than others, for example a low elevation sedimentary reef island is more susceptible than a high elevation volcanic rock island. A five-point susceptibility rating was derived for all 1532 islands that included all island types within each country in the region, e.g. the 431 islands in the Solomon Islands.

The second step was to refine the scale from whole-island to coastal-margin with more variables added to the diagnostic criteria, including measures of insularity and proximity to other islands. Further downscaling to coastal compartments with more diagnostic criteria enabled development of higher resolution susceptibility measures. The third step was to identify the key climate and oceanographic drivers of coastal change together with their projected future changes through 2100 based on AR5 and recent scenarios in the 22nd century (des, wind and waves, distant-source swell, ENSO, tropical cyclones and sea-level change). Finally, how these processes interact with different island and coastal types in different regions of the Pacific was documented through a 'coastal sensitivity' measure based on island location and projected changes in that part of the Pacific. Sensitivities were calculated for the 1532 islands. Some surprising patterns emerged from these data including the fact that atoll islands do not all fit the very high sensitivity class but range over moderate, high and very high on a five-point sensitivity scale.

This coastal vulnerability typology developed for small islands in the Pacific provides a consistent and defensible methodology that should: (1) enhance the capacity of decision-makers to take climate risk into coastal adaptation planning and management; (2) enable agencies to invest in targeted and transferable adaptation projects with island partners; and (3) be applicable at all scales from global to local including other small island regions.

## K-2210-02

### Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

**R. Nicholls (1)**

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom

This presentation will review the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a rising sea level on sea-level rise. This is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming and has significant impacts. Importantly, there is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest risk is the risk of coastal loss in the 22nd century (and beyond). While we cannot avoid some global rise in sea level, we can still avoid significant losses of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with significant long-term benefits to coastal inhabitants. The available results suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered

for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This point has been clearly articulated in coastal impact chapters of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessments. This approach requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas which has not been systematically considered to date. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the difference in the basic science. The commitment was available and presented in the First IPCC Assessment, the policy implications are less appreciated and need wider discussion.

## K-2210-03

### Marine and Ocean Ecosystems: what are the impacts?

**L.M. Pedrota Castro (1)**

(1) Universidad Nacional, Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Cartago, Costa Rica

Coastal areas have traditionally been important to the development of human communities. Those who have exploited ecosystemic resources they provide them. These systems have been overexploited and polluted modified by human activities. Associated with these pressures, climate change may be impacting these ecosystems. The objective of this study was to analyze the factors affecting coastal and marine ecosystems and their conservation. For this analysis, the province of Limon was selected on the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica, including the southern sector. The evaluation was conducted in the communities of Wesfalia, Vizcaya, Cahuita, Puerto Viejo, Manzanillo and Gandoca. For the analysis of the beaches, the width of the beach, vegetation cover, type of dominant roots of vegetation, plant species composition, average height of vegetation and substrate type were evaluated. For evaluation of the reef and seagrass beds community, we use the methodology AGRA 2.2 modified for depths between 2 and 6 m. In the mangrove, we applied the methodology of using Murdiyarso et al. (2009). NOAA satellite data for sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 used. In the analysis, the Integrated Health Index Reef showed Isla Uvita, Cahuita, Puerto Viejo and Manzanillo have values of 3.7; 2.6; 3.45 and 2.86 respectively. The first and third places have good condition. Meanwhile, the second and fourth showed regular condition. Seagrass beds coverage showed 71.67 ± 10.4, number of offshoots 39.00 ± 17.67 and average height 2.00 ± 19.92. Thalassia testudinum in Uvita Island. In Cahuita and Manzanillo, 2 species were observed (Syringodinium filiforme and Thalassia testudinum) with coverage (%), number of offshoots and average heights with lower values than those reported in Uvita Island. In Puerto Viejo, the coverage was negligible. In all areas, small patches were observed connected reefs. For beaches, quality indicators showed that Gandoca and Manzanillo are the most impacted areas. Erosion was 91% and 56% respectively. As for coverage was 95 ± 8.13 and 65 ± 6.6 respectively. The other localities showed regular conditions. Cahuita mangroves and Gandoca were analyzed. The area was 2.85 and 13, 58 ha respectively. The number of species was 7 and 12 respectively. The dominant species Pterocarpus officinalis (16.78%) and Rhizophora mangrove (29.45%) respectively. The number of dead trees was 15 and 26 individuals per ha respectively. The densities were of 53 ± 3.26 and 77 ± 9.87 individuals per ha respectively. There is significant difference between the temperature of a surface of the sea between 2001 and 2013 (W = 1.14284E7; p = 0). According to the comparison of medians (Mann-Whitney test) there is a significant difference in the concentration of chlorophyll «a» between 2003 and 2013 (W = 0.86652E7; p < 0.05). Increased wave and tide, caused by the increase in sea level and global climate change to produce more intense hurricanes and North Pacific typhoons affecting upper parts of the beach that normally were not affected, being more vulnerable low slope beaches. It is concluded that the composition and structure of the shallow coral community in the 4 locations were evaluated regularly, in the case of Puerto Viejo, right on the Isla Uvita. The most important sites in both species Rhizophora mangrove was also found Laguncularia and Avicennia germinans with other associated species. Riverine mangroves are two types during the dry season but a sand bar that prevents water flow is established. For Gandoca as stable as a coastal lagoon and in the case of Cahuita, like a swamp. The conservation status of these systems as ocean acidification that seems to reduce the number of sperm released by corals and agrees that
recruitment of larvae and the effect may start slowly or perceived, can be mitigated by the resilience of whose mechanisms of macroevolutionary system could not hope to provide answers to climate change. The strategies by reduce pressures on the species referred must be reduced the pressure in this ecosystem. In that sense, they must have the flexibility to confront climate change and that seems to be the most recommended practice in marine and coastal areas due to the difficulties of direct management in these areas. Some actions to mitigate climate variability are rehabilitating habitat mitigation program of coastal erosion control plan and mitigate the impact of lionfish and adaptation measures in management plans for marine turtles.

## O-2210-01

# Assessing the vulnerability of Air and Sea Ports in Small Islands: Risk Factors and Adaptation Guidance

### L. Nurse (1)

(1) University of the West Indies, CERMES, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bridgetown, Barbados

Since publication of the IPCC First Assessment in 1990, all subsequent reports have identified key reasons for and added global attention to, the vulnerability of small islands in adverse consequences of climate change, particularly sea level rise. The Summary for Policymakers of the recently released Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5-SPM-WGII), notes that various forms of disruption in islands and low-laying coastal states due to storm surges, flooding and sea level rise can be expected, with high confidence. Specifically, the AR5 emphasizes the risk of loss and damage to vital living and non-living coastal and marine resources in islands (e.g. beach, coral reefs, seagrasses, mangrove wetlands) and their associated goods and services. While impact severity will vary within and among regions, the AR5-SPM-WGII projects that some small island states could suffer damages and adaptation costs of 'several percentage points of GDP' over the 21st Century and beyond.

By virtue of the 'openness' of their economies and the consequential reliance on imports and exports to sustain livelihoods, small islands are heavily dependent on the functionality and efficiency of their air and seaports. Unlike many large continental-scale countries, international trade in SIDS is not facilitated by other transportation media such as road and rail. Between fifty and ninety percent of all food and beverages consumed in SIDS come from external sources, and more than ninety percent all energy products used in SIDS, including hydrocarbon fuels, are handled through air and sea ports. On average, in excess of seventy-five percent of the consumables that support other sectors pass through these ports of entry. In addition, SIDS earn considerable local and foreign revenues from various port-related activities, including berthing and bunkering, airport landing and maintenance, containerized and other storage charges, waste reception fees and cruise passenger imports, inter alia. As in other countries, considerable direct and indirect employment is also generated by air and sea ports in SIDS.

The climate-related risks posed to ports must therefore be of considerable concern to small islands and low-laying coastal states. While an increasing number of vulnerability assessments conducted on islands have evaluated the impacts of climate change and direct variability on coastal infrastructure, few have specifically examined the implications of the threat for ports in these regions. Hence, this work attempts to contribute to filling that gap by focusing on the vulnerability of air and sea ports in SIDS to climate change related impacts. More specifically, the risks posed to port infrastructure by sea level rise and projected changes in the behavior of some hydro-meteorological events will be examined. Equally, the potential for disruption to critical port-related functions as a consequence of climate change, will also be explored.

Some guidance on the selection of criteria for evaluating the appropriateness of adaptation responses is offered, which it is hoped would be helpful to port managers and planners in the SIDS regions. In this regard, while the similarities among small islands will help to form a basis for identification of some criteria, the guidance emphasizes that island diversity in its many forms - biophysical, economic, socio-cultural and political - helps to shape the

risk profile of each country, and should therefore be an important consideration when making adaptation choices, including in the air and sea port sub-sector.

Finally, it is cautioned that notwithstanding the uncertainties, delaying adaptation in this crucial sub-sector, the lynch-pin of many island economies, may not be prudent, given the conclusions of the IPCC-AR5. It is suggested that an approach to adaptation with judiciously integrates what is known about the present-day vulnerability of ports with our 'best understanding' of future climate risks, would constitute a meaningful risk management strategy for air and sea ports in SIDS.

## O-2210-02

# Managing increasing risks in coastal cities

S. Hallegatte (1) ; R. Nicholls (2) ; J. Corfee-Morlot (3) ; C. Green (4)

(1) Climate Change Group, Washington, United States of America; (2) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom; (3) OECD, Paris, France; (4) None, London, United Kingdom

Coastal areas are particularly exposed to climate change and sea level rise, and large coastal cities represent hotspots of vulnerability and risk. In particular, coastal protections calibrated for current hazards and environmental conditions can quickly become inappropriate, leading to major losses or risk level: with rapid climate and economic trends, good protections can be more dangerous than helpful, in the absence of continuous adaptation. This presentation illustrates on major coastal cities how risk responds to change in sea level with and without adaptation, and discusses policy implications regarding coastal protection, risk management, and investment needs. A specific focus will be given to the need for comprehensive risk management packages that combine ex ante prevention actions with ex post actions that enhance the ability of the affected cities and people to recover and reconstruct. Finally, implications on poverty and inequality will be discussed, as protection choices will have large distribution and wealth impacts.

## O-2210-03

# Coastal forested wetlands as affected by sea-level rise and land-use in Caribbean islands: lessons from the past

D. Imbert (1) ; D. Galop (2) ; A. Lenoble (3) ; C. Stouvenot (4)

(1) UMR ECOFOG/University of Antilles, Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe, France; (2) UMR GEODE, Crns, Toulouse, France; (3) UMR PACEa, Crns, Pessac, France; (4) UMR ArchAm, Service régional de l'archéologie, Basse-Terre, France

Tropical coastal plains and estuaries have developed large forested wetlands during the present postglacial transgression. In the Caribbean islands, such wetlands are subjected to specific hydrological characteristics due to small tidal range, seasonal rainfall, low mineral siltation, and frequent powerful hurricanes. In this context, a large amount of the atmospheric carbon fixed annually by the vegetation is stored underwater and form peat deposits several meters depth. As a result, these autochthonous organic sediments act of invaluable paleoecological archives of past climatic changes and catastrophic events that have affected coastal ecosystems over times. Recent and ongoing research conducted in the Lesser Antilles is presented to document this issue and put into a broader perspective the expected changes for the near future. In Guadeloupe, peat sediments over 10 meters depth have accumulated at an average rate of 1 mm/year during the last 3000 years, with no significant variation of the coastline. However, recent data indicate that before 4000 years B.P. faster sea-level rise (≥ 1,5 mm/year) may have caused dramatic coastline retreat. In the meantime, periodic climatic changes (dryer/wetter) have caused functional and structural changes whereas human activities inside these wetlands contributed to reduce forested areas (especially swamp forests) and, comparatively, promote herbaceous vegetation. Current trends in sea-level rise indicate that compensatory threshold of soil-level rise is being exceeded; as a result, landward intrusion of saltwater wedge is expected to occur farther and more frequently, especially under a forecasted dryer climate. Conversely, endangered freshwater ecosystems like the Pterocarpus swamp forest could be at risk of extinction because of the limited possibilities of upward migration, due to land use and inland steep topography.
## Short- and long-term impacts on coastal power plants under sea level rise

R. Bierkand (1) ; M. Auffhamper (2) ; A. Levermann (1) ; B. Marzeion, (3)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research domain sustainable solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) University of California, Berkeley CA, United States of America; (3) University of Innsbruck, Institute for geophysics and meteorology, Innsbruck, Austria

Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by up to 1m during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. Assuming, that existing power plants are protected against a 100-year flood risk, we compute the additional risk of flooding by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additionally exposed capacity varies strongly between states. For Delaware it is 80% of the currently generated power. For New York this number becomes 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today's status increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: Currently operating power plants are less exposed than those who have been retired or canceled and currently planned plants will be less exposed than those operating at present. Sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise appears to be possible.

A complete melting of the Antarctic ice-sheets leads to a long-term sea-level rise by up to 65 meters over a time period of several thousand years depending on the amount of carbon emissions within the next decades to centuries. Decommissioned nuclear reactors that will be entombed but not dismantled may represent a long-term risk under sea-level rise. Since potential unstable socio-economic situations or other circumstances may prevent premeditated dismantling intentions, it is necessary to know which sites will be affected by future sea-level rise. We computed the available dismantling-time for all nuclear reactors in the world. Operating, planned and nuclear units under permanent shutdown were considered. Our results show that, for example, for a 5120 Gt CO2 emission scenario more than 50% of all nuclear reactors in the world are exposed to sea-level rise within the next 5000 years. Of those exposed, 90% already within the next 2000 years.

## Climate change impacts on mangrove ecosystem

F. Fromard (1) ; A. Gardel (2) ; C. Proisy (3) ; E. Anthony (4)

(1) University of Toulouse-CNRS, Laboratory of functional ecology and environment (ecolab), Toulouse, France; (2) CNRS, Cayenne, France; (3) IRD, Amap, Montpellier, France; (4) University, Cerege, Aix-en-Provence, France

Mangrove forests are a major ecosystem of tropical coasts that support a wide range of ecosystem services, including protection against coastal erosion, a significant carbon storage capacity, nursery sites for marine species, and retention of terrogenous pollutants. Over the last few decade, mangroves have, however, been significantly decimated by direct human activities with the development of shrimp farming, urban expansion and agricultural practices.

Mangroves are also particularly sensitive to climate change, with different impacts on ecosystem functioning, structuring and dynamics. Sea level rise could promote landward mangrove migration, while high levels of atmospheric CO2 could enhance mangrove tree growth. A lower frequency of extreme low temperatures should facilitate a poleward expansion of mangroves, whereas extreme events such as cyclones and sunsumas should lead to mangrove retreat or demise. These processes are recognized variably worldwide. In particular, climate change impacts associated with direct, growing anthropogenic disturbances should drastically alter

mangrove ecosystem services.

In this presentation, specific impacts and adaptive strategies of mangroves in the face of climate change will be addressed, with a specific emphasis on the mangroves of the French tropical overseas territories, and in the framework of the CNRS/IRD's 2015 Year of the Mangrove initiative.

## Islets of New-Caledonia lagoons in the perspective of Climate change and sea level rise

M. Garcin (1) ; M. Vendé-Leclerc (3) ; B. Robineau (2) ; M. Maurizot (1) ; G. Le Cozannet (3) ; A. Nicolaie-Lerma (1)

(1) BRGM, DRP/R3C, Orléans, France; (2) DIMENC, Sgnc, Nouméa, New Caledonia; (3) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France

Context and problematics: On July 7th 2008, UNESCO included parts of Lagoons of New Caledonia in the list of the Reef Diversity and Associated Ecosystems. Sandy islets from New Caledonian lagoons lie on lagoonal reef platforms or on the reef barrier. They have a major role in these specific and rich ecosystems, being the seat of nesting turtles, seabirds, sea kraits etc. In addition, islets have a high importance in the Caledonian culture and way of life; economy of the islands has been developed around tourism and services with specific activities such as sports and relaxation. One of the recurrent issues for people and governmental agencies concerns the islets' future in the perspective of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. In this context, the Coastal Observatory of New Caledonia (OBLIC) has initiated research about the recent and present evolution of islets in order to predict their "behavior".

Method: Around twenty islets from the southwestern and eastern lagoons of Grande-Terre (New Caledonia main island) and one from Nokanhai atoll (Ile des Pins) have been studied. Such studies integrate field work and observations (erosion, scars, accretion areas, sedimentology, etc.) and analysis of historical photographs and satellites images. Geomorphological and sedimentological data have been collected during 2013 and 2014 field surveys. Past extensions of each islet have been interpreted using available aerial views and satellite sensing. Old aerial photographs are rather rare because islets being sometimes quite away from the shore, they were not covered by aerial survey of the main island. All available data have been integrated in a GIS. Thus, all islets' reconstruction extends from one decade to 70 years. Time evolutions of shape and surface of each islet have been mapped in order to compute surface changes and the present percentage of coast's lengths in erosion, in accretion or stable. Moreover, the forcing factors such as winds, wave, tropical storms or cyclone, and the ENSO have been analyzed, in order to understand potential links with the islet behavior.

Results: In terms of size and shape, a high diversity and a variety of evolution trends of islets during the past decades can be noticed. Actually, processes affecting the coast of each islet (erosion, accretion, stability) are highly variable. All islets have at least 50% of their coasts affected by erosion and for four this rate is close to 100%. Islets showing increasing surface during the past years are very rare. Analysis and observations show that five main stages constitute the life-cycle of Caledonian islets, namely: nucleation, growing, maturity, decay, relic or endangered. Changes of environmental parameters and forcing factors as well as the inherited geomorphology lead the islets from one stage to another. The becoming of each islet is linked to its past evolution, its present state and future evolution of environmental parameters. Parameters are linked to the climate variability like ENSO or IPO which control the intensity and direction of trade winds and the sea level in the SW Pacific. Forcing factors include also extreme events like cyclones, storms and austral swells which can trigger at very short term powerful erosion or accretion with high impact on the islet. Sea level rise induced by the anthropogenic climate change has also to be taken into account. Using our data and informations and postulating that the current situation remains identical, we consider that : 19% of the islets are in a critical state with a very likely disappearance in the next future (10 years); 50% of the islets are in a critical situation with a likely disappearance in the next future
and very likely disappearance in the middle term (next decades); 19% of the islets show a rapid evolution which can lead to their disappearance in the middle term but not in the next future; 10% of the islets are not endangered at short and middle time scale and 43% of the islets are not endangered at all (stable or accreting, large surface, relatively high altitude). Our results show that situations are contrasted from one islet to another. We have also to emphasize that uncertainties are higher for middle and long term future due to uncertainties about the sea level. Uncertainties are also linked to the potential reaching of a thresholds value (value and rates) which would lead to a modification of the resilience capacity of each islet. Thus, a coastal observatory will be of first importance in monitoring the impact of climate change and sea level rise on such systems.

P-2210-04

Sea-level rise impact on European shelf
tide dynamics

D. Idier (1) ; F. Paris (1) ; G. Le Cozannet (2) ; F. Boulahya (1)
(1) BRGM, Orléans, France; (2) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orléans, France

Sea-level rise (SLR) affects not only the total water level, but can also modify the tidal dynamics. Several studies investigated the SLR effect on the tide of the Western European continental shelf, analysing the tidal dynamics (mainly the M2 component) for various SLR scenarios or coastal defence schemes.

The present study aims at completing existing knowledge, using a modelling based approach, investigating 11 uniform SLR scenarios from -0.25 to +10m, and analysing the effect on high/low tide water level as well as the amplitude and phase tidal components. Sea-level rise scenarios include the present sea-level, as well as several idealized scenarios that correspond to plausible sea-levels for more or less distant past or future. On the one hand, the -0.25m scenario can be considered as a low bound for the preindustrial sea-level. On the other hand, positive SLR scenarios correspond to more or less plausible sea-levels in the future: according to IPCC, a rise of sea-level of +25cm is likely by 2046-2065 whatever the climate scenario, and the likely range for high emissions scenarios reaches 0.5 to 1m by 2100. While higher SLR scenarios are not excluded by 2100, sea-level will continue to rise beyond 2100, and it is likely to reach values of several meters by 2200 and beyond. Finally, the +10m SLR scenario corresponds to a situation where most Greenland and west-Arctic ice-sheets have melted.

Assuming that coastal defences along the present day shoreline are maintained and upgraded, the patterns of increase / decrease of high tide level (annual maximum water level) are almost stationary in most of the area (70%), with an increase in most of the domain and a decrease mainly in the Western English Channel. These changes are globally varying linearly with the SLR, till the +2m SLR scenario, with rate ranging between -15% and +15% of SLR. The main patterns are: (1) a decrease in the Western English Channel, (2) an increase in the Irish Sea, Southern North Sea and German Bight. The analysis of tidal component contributions shows that high tide level changes patterns are not exactly similar to M2 pattern changes (e.g. along the French Atlantic coast, high tide level increases whereas M2 amplitude decreases), high highlights need to take into account all the components when analysing SLR effect on the tide. The main changes in the maximum water level result from the changes of the M2, S2, N2, M4 and M4 components. Sea-level rise pushes several areas (e.g. Atlantic coast, Irish Sea) closer to resonance, leading to the increase of the resonant tidal components (especially semi-diurnal or quart-diurnal, depending on the area).

The linear behaviour of tide dynamics with the SLR is highly sensitive to the coastal defence strategy (i.e. let flooding or not), the high tide level varying much less linearly with SLR when flooding is allowed, like for instance in the German Bight. However, several areas appear not sensitive to this choice, such that the estimated trends there are highly probable: an increase of ~6% SLR (resp. decrease of ~15% SLR) in the North of Irish Sea (resp. of the
Finally, preliminary investigations show that, at least, for the non-uniform SLR scenario we computed, the high water level is very weakly sensitive to the (non)-uniformity, local rates of increase/decrease (relative to local SLR) being

similar to the ones obtained from uniform SLR scenarios.

P-2210-05

Vulnerability of Coastal Crop Land to
Climate Change in the Northern Part of Bay
of Bengal: Issues, Challenges and Future
Prospects

AHM. Kamal (1) ; MH. Nesarul (2)

(1) Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Animal Science and Fishery, Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia; (2) University of Chittagong, Institute of marine sciences and fisheries, Chittagong, Bangladesh

The coastal communities of northeastern part of Bay of Bengal are used to live and survive through facing different types of natural disasters since primitive time. Among the natural disasters, salinity intrusion due to climate change and sea level rise in the coastal agriculture land is the major unpleasant incident now days. Because of that wide area of the coastal agricultural land, coastal forest, drinking water facilities and fresh water availability are in critical condition which may cause 40 million people of 147 coastal districts covering 47201 km area are placed in danger. The nation wide assessment on the detected of coastal soil and water salinity is not conducted since 9 years. The survey on the coastal soil salinity on 1973 and 2000 found that the saline effected land is increased from 0.83 million ha to 1.20 million ha within 27 years. It is assumed that at present the rate of salinity intrusion in the coastal agriculture land will be higher than those of 1973 and 2000. The soil salinity was recorded 18-20 ppt after AILA in the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh and increased further 2-4 ppt due to low precipitation which causes crop burning. This paper aims to know the salinity intrusion in the coastal soil and water of Bangladesh, which would help to plan and improvement of the sustainable agriculture production. Study revealed that to face any extra stresses on the coastal agriculture land due to climate change requires extensive inventory, awareness activities, mitigation measures, adaptation techniques and extension of indigenous technology.

P-2210-06

Impact of climate change on estuarine
ecogeomorphology, and application to the
Loire estuary

P. Le Hir (1) ; R. Walther (2) ; F. Cayocca (1) ; J. Sawtschuk (3) ; F. Bireot (3) ; P. Bona (4)

(1) IFREMER, Dynamiques de l'Environnement Côtier (ODE/DYNECO), PLOUZANE, France; (2) ARTELIA, Grenoble, France; (3) Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Institut de géoarchitecture, Brest, France; (4) GIP Loire Estuaire, Nantes, France

Besides temperature increase, the main expressions of climate change in estuarine environments are sea level rise and possible change in storm regimes downstream, variations of river flow and solid fluxes upstream. For instance, in northern Europe, lengthening of the low river discharge duration is often predicted, leading to salinity intrusion and upwards shift of turbidity maximum in estuaries, with possible effects on water quality.

Previous modelling work on the Loire and the Seine estuaries (France) suggested that sea level rise (SLR) would only induce a moderate upstream shift of saline waters and turbidity maximum. These computations assumed no morphological coupling. However, expected changes in erosion/deposition patterns due to modified forcing conditions are likely to modify the estuarine morphology. These morphological processes have the same time scale as climate change, so that the consequences are likely to depend on the rate of climate change. Supported by the French Ministry of Environment (project GICC/C3E2), the present study aims to answer these questions, with a focus on the impact on tidal marshes frequently located on estuarine banks. Because these areas have the same elevation as spring tide high water, they are occasionally flooded and even a slight SLR is likely to dramatically alter their inundation frequency. A main question is to know whether the marsh elevation is likely to increase at the same rate as the sea level, or flooding will become more frequent.

Two models have been developed to address these
questions. A first one accounts for morphological coupling and deals with schematized and simplified morphologies. The study aims at classifying the estuarine systems response to climate change according to various types of hydrodynamic forcing (tidal amplitude, river flow), bed sediment nature and sediment inputs, and morphological configurations. The model is fully process-based, with a sediment module that accounts for sand and mud behaviour. Long term simulations (typically 100-200 years) are achieved thanks to the use of a morphological factor.

A second model is a similar process-based model with muddy sediment, applied to the Loire estuary. The computation grid is refined in interstitial areas, allowing accurate simulation of specific hydrodynamics in a realistic and complex network of creeks and vegetated areas. This model is used to predict sediment deposition on lateral marshes, and its variation according to the location of the turbidity maximum which is related to the river flow. The model has been validated against field measurements, in terms of inundation heights, flow structure and intensity, suspended sediment concentration and sedimentation rate.

Tests on schematic geometries show that (1) SLR increases the tidal oscillating volume and consequently the hydraulic energy within the estuary, which results in channel widening or the development of creeks in elevated marshes; and (2) a strong dependence on the upstream sedimentation input : high sediment fluxes increase the sedimentation on the interstitial flats, while these flats are likely to be eroded in case of sediment deficit.

In cases of reasonable sediment input, a 1 cm/year SLR is never compensated by sedimentation, and flooding rate increases. When the SLR stops, lateral sedimentation is likely to continue, inducing a following reduction in the inundation rate. All these features are strongly dependent on the initial configuration, in particular the cross profile of the alluvial plain which allows or not any lateral extension of the flood. Surprisingly, vegetation on marshes does not seem to impact these processes much.

Simulations on the Loire estuary were run for the coming 30 years, and based on a 34cm SLR and longer low river regime duration, as predicted by hydrological regional models (project ICC Hydroqual). Results show that the turbidity maximum would slightly increase (despite a reduction of upstream sediment input) and would shift 5 km upstream, like salinity intrusion. Only a small fraction (5-10 %) of the mobile sediment stock would supply lateral sedimentation, not enough to compensate SLR. Based on recent observations and comparison with 30 years old data, the potential effect on vegetation was assessed : upstream shift of halophytes and development of helophytes on marshes.

P-2210-07

Coastal erosion and Shoreline Changes
assessment in different climatic periods in
Kalpitiya Peninsula, Sri Lanka

RU. Piyadasa (1); MA. Samanmali (2); W. Deepthi (3)

(1) University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Geography Department, Colombo, Sri Lanka; (2) Colombo University, Department of geography, Colombo, Sri Lanka; (3) Colombo University, Zoology department, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is an island located in Indian Ocean with a total coastline of length approximating 1600km. Western part of Sri Lankan coastal zones are facing shoreline retreat problems, losing territory due to monsoon wind sea actions, negative sediment transport balances and climate change phenomena. To deal with this problem, efficient tools are necessary to help decision-makers choose the right procedures to follow. These tools should assess, estimate and project scenarios of coastal evolution in a medium-to-long-term perspective. To perform reliable projections, as many variables as possible should be analyzed, and the impact of each of these variables on the shoreline evolution should be understood. The study has been conducted to evaluate and identify the Shoreline changes during the past 15 years in Kalpitiya peninsula. Both Remote Sensing and Image processing techniques were used to extract Shoreline. Shoreline vector data method was used in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) of ArcGIS 10.1 to estimate the change in shoreline (positive or negative). R 2.14.0 was used to calculate

relationship between time and sand deposition/erosion in Kalpitiya Peninsula. In this ongoing study, temporally shoreline changes of Kalpitiya peninsula to be investigated on ArcGIS 10.1 with DSAS tool. It was find out maximum and minimum Shoreline Change rate as well as Shoreline erosion rate in Kalpitiya Area. The Multiple R-squared of time and Shoreline change distance was recorded positive relationship such as 0.97, at the confidence level of 0.05. These results shows North Western part coast area in Sri Lanka. The study defined a methodology for classification of risk areas in Kalpitiya coast, considering the uncertainty associated with erosion and wave climate sequences. The study help to identify and prepare different risk maps according to considered climate change effects were obtained, defining areas of high, medium and low risk of territory loss due to erosion.

P-2210-08

Urban Landscape Remodeling for Climate
Resilient Neighborhoods in Coastal Mega-
cities of India Using Integral Geographic
Information System: A Participatory Urban
Climate Change Risk Reduction Framework
for Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

A. Tiwari (1)

(1) National Institute Of Technology, NITB, India

Indian coastal metropolitans represent the most densely populated and highly congested urban areas and rank among some the largest urban settlements of the planet in terms of population. However these mega-cities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of civic amenities and constraints of access undermining carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Climate change has increased vulnerability of large population, particularly poor and marginalized, living in rapidly growing coastal mega-cities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly high intensity rainfall, floods and cyclone. Moreover, long-term impact of climate change is expected to result in uncertainty pertaining to energy consumption, and thereby reducing efficiency of urban energy systems and pushing carbon footprint further. Furthermore, temperature extremes are likely to adversely affect the accessibility to green and open spaces, and community services, particularly water, sanitation, health, public transport, markets and community centers posing serious threat to live-ability and resilient lifestyles. These changes are offsetting the interconnected network of urban infrastructure and services in sprawling coastal cities. Study aims at evolving participatory climate resilient urban neighborhoods through urban-surface 'remodeling' approach in 'Integral Geographic Information System' (GIS) environment for coastal megacities with the illustration of Mumbai.

The paper uses terrain analysis tools in integral
geographical information system platform to identify and
map the climate susceptible urban fabric and check its
scope for urban landscape remodeling without adding to its
often complex fragmentation. Harmonizing with people's
perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporating
options and priorities of city administration and other
stakeholders the urban surface remodeling through
integral GIS ensures inclusive solutions with reduced
vulnerability and increased resilience. The application of
integral GIS resolves conflicting perspectives, interests,
and approaches of the multiplicity of stakeholders
involved at various levels in climate smart urban planning.
It ensures barrier-free climate communication process
for decision making with the aim of ensuring long term feasible
outcome of remodeled surfaces. Surfaces available
for remodeling include paved ground, streetscapes,
commercial facades, rooftops, open spaces, public spaces as
well as dark corners (such as under flyovers). Remodeling
alters certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic
cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with blue and
green infrastructure measures that collectively involve
ecosystem services for greater hydrological connection.
The method fairly reduces exposure of vulnerable surface
and minimizes risk to achieve an extremity-neutral state,
forming the key to urban resilience.

The outcomes of this paper included measures for
prevention of choking of drainage system during high
intensity rainfall, therefore minimizing the risk from
extreme weather events. Remodeling looked for efficient
heat transfer without contribution to urban heat island during upper extremes of temperature. The blue and green infrastructure measures enhanced natural services namely: temperature regulation and maintenance of humidity, which are otherwise lost during climate-extremes, through cooling via evapo-transpiration. Experience gained through study is likely to help individuals, stakeholders, and organizations involved in the process of urban climate change adaptation governance in coastal megacities all across the developing countries.

P-2210-09

Control of mangrove abundance by decadal changes in oceanic wave fields

R. Walker (1)

(1) Université Paul Sabatier - CNRS, Umr 5245 ecolab, Toulouse, France

The ocean surface is crossed by fields of wind-generated

waves. These can travel over basin-wide distances and drive a large portion of coastal sediment transport when they reach continent margins. The variability of wave fields is thus of crucial importance to understand observed natural changes of coastal areas such as tidal wetlands. However, to date, no studies have tackled this issue at regional scale and over the course of several decades. Here, we provide a 64-year analysis of coastal changes on the open-coast mangrove shoreline situated downdrift of the mouth of the Amazon River. We show that over 1950-2014, changes in North tropical Atlantic wave heights have primarily affected sediment dynamics leading to important natural variations observed in mangrove surface area. We show that mangroves mostly respond to low frequency fluctuations of wave fields mainly associated with the decadal variability of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need for a better understanding and quantification of the role of natural climate variability on coastal dynamics. This can be crucial in anticipating the near future evolution of tidal wetlands and their Carbon stock in the context of anthropogenic climate change.

2211 - Climate change in mountains: from impacts to resilience

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2211-01

Impacts on society and economy of a
changing climate and climate-generated
hazards on mountain water resources

M. Beniston (1) ; C. Tucker (2) ; G. Grandjean (3)

(1) University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, CAROUE / GENEVA, Switzerland; (2) Indiana University, Anthropology, Bloomington, IN, United States of America; (3) BRGM, Risk and Prevention, Orleans, France

Mountains represent significant features covering nearly one-quarter of the world's terrestrial surface. Mountains support a range of socioeconomic sectors (e.g. tourism, forest production, ecosystem resources) that have experienced considerable change in the last two centuries, resulting from pressures on natural resources and traditions imposed by increasingly-industrialized societies. Development trajectories of these high-value environments vary considerably across the globe, but certain mountain regions have been extensively transformed, converting them from inaccessible and relatively poor hinterlands into attractive destinations for the wealthy, sometimes excluding longtime inhabitants from economic benefits. In certain cases, outmigration and an aging population have led to economic declines in agro-pastoral and forestry production. Across the world, such transformative processes in mountain social-ecological systems have been accompanied by profound social, institutional, and environmental changes. As a major supplier of resources, mountains collectively represent in particular the source region for more than 60% of surface waters. A significant fraction of world's population in lowland regions depends on mountain water resources for agriculture, industry, energy, and domestic water supply.

Rapid climate change occurring in mountains carries
broad implications, given that such regions have long
been a source of valued ecosystem services and natural
resources. For example, future shifts in temperature and
precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of
snow and ice in many mountains may ultimately change
the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality
of water originating in mountains and uplands. Natural
processes controlled by hydro-meteorological triggers
(e.g. floods, landslides, debris-flows, earthflows and
rockfalls, glacier melt, river erosion) will in a future climate
add further environmental pressures on both social and
natural systems, thereby highlighting the need to promptly
conduct proactive adaptation plans.

The challenge for both mountain societies and those
located downstream but dependent on mountain water
resources in particular is thus to estimate as accurately as
possible future changes in water availability. This will help
to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies
and improved water governance. Enhanced awareness and

appropriate policies aimed at alleviating the more adverse
climate impacts would help indigenous populations to
better adapt to rapid change, and for water-dependent
economic sectors to pursue their activities with lower risks
of economic rivalries or conflicts.

O-2211-01

Challenges and Possibilities for Sustainabi-
lity in Mountain Social-Ecological Systems:
Results from a Global Analysis

J. Klein (1) ; A. Nolin (2) ; C. Tucker (3) ; K. Hopping (1) ; A. Grét-Regrayame (4) ; S. Lavorel (5) ; B. Müller (6) ; P. Bourgeron, (7) ; V. Bustin (8) ; E. Castellanos (9)

(1) Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States of America; (2) Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States of America; (3) Indiana University, Anthropology, Bloomington, IN, United States of America; (4) ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; (5) CNRS, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble, France; (6) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany; (7) University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; (8) University of California, Berkeley, United States of America; (9) Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guatemala, Guatemala

Mountain regions provide critical hydrological and diverse
ecosystem services to over half the planet's human
population, most of whom live in the lowlands. At the
same time, mountain systems face mounting pressures
from climate, policy and economic change. Based on 48
mountain case studies from around the world, we describe
the suite of characteristics and incongruities that create
particular challenges for mountain sustainability, and also
present a conceptual model of mountain social-ecological
systems (MtSES) that highlights the broad processes driving
mountain system dynamics and their ecosystem services
from local to global scales. We focus our analyses across
all of the mountain case studies, between subsistence
and non-subsistence based mountain regions, and
among land use groups that are dominated by tourism,
pastoralism and crop agriculture. We then explore the
use of coupled models explaining social behavior, policy
and management, and economics with models simulating
biophysical processes as a potential tool for identifying
sustainable trajectories in mountains, particularly when
used within a transdisciplinary framework. We present an
analysis of existing coupled social-ecological models in
mountains and examine how these models are currently
employed to address critical mountain sustainability
issues.

Our analyses reveal patterns in mountain characteristics,
livelihood strategies and associated challenges for
sustainability. Mountains are geographically and culturally
complex systems that deliver ecosystem services from
local to global scales and are prone to hazards and extreme
events. Particularly among the subsistence-based sites,
mountains continue to be physically remote and distant
from centers of power and decision-making. These
features, combined with high representation of indigenous peoples and cultures, result in social, economic and political isolation and marginalization. Stemming from the dynamic and non-linear interactions of the mountain characteristics are mountain-specific problems that are multidimensional, often lacking clear definition and optimal solutions, so-called "wicked problems", which we identify as incongruities. The most ubiquitous incompatibility across all of our mountain case studies is that 'policies resource extraction, and land cover change, are more important within subsistence-based mountain sites. We explore the primary scales at which these drivers occur and how they interact with mountain land use and livelihood groups, and with the delivery of mountain ecosystem services across scales.

Climate change, extreme weather events, markets, policy, and land use change are key drivers across all case study sites, while phenomena such as land tenure change, resource extraction, and land cover change are more important within subsistence-based mountain sites. We explore the primary scales at which these drivers occur and how they interact with mountain land use and livelihood groups, and with the delivery of mountain ecosystem services across scales.

Based on our analysis of social-ecological modeling studies in mountains, we suggest that a coupled model of multiple levels of participation, such as local resource users and policymakers, could be a powerful tool for engaging stakeholders and decision-makers about future trajectories of MtSEs. We also conclude that while modeling efforts are currently focused on system understanding and prediction, there is great potential to also employ models that foster social learning and communication.

We conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and challenges regarding mountain sustainability. For a next step, we propose to use transdisciplinary modeling approaches in mountains, including co-creation of knowledge, participatory approaches, and coordinated practices, all of which are essential for sound decision-making and building resilient futures.

## O-2211-02

# Facing climate change in the Peruvian Andes: implications of shifts in precipitation patterns, river discharge and the availability of water resources for local communities and options for adaptation

N. Andres (1); P. Calanca (2); N. Salzmann (3); V. Bustinzà (4); C. Huggel (5); M. Rohrer (6); R. Neukom (5)

(1) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; (2) Agroscope, Institute for Sustainability Sciences (ISS), Department of natural resources and agriculture, Zürich, Switzerland; (3) University of Friburg, Department of Geosciences, Friburg, Switzerland; (4) Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático-PACC, MINAM-COSUDE-Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, Cosus, Peru; (5) University of Zürich, Department of geography, Zürich, Switzerland; (6) Meteodat GmbH, Zürich, Switzerland

Communities in the high Andes are considered among the most vulnerable to climate change for various reasons. For instance, they rely on an agriculture that is largely practiced at a subsistence level and exposed to droughts, frosts, late season warm spells, pests and diseases. Also human settlements are often endangered by floods and landslides, which have not only been the cause of damages to buildings and infrastructure but also responsible for numerous casualties in the recent past. In view of a possible decrease in seasonal precipitation amounts but a more frequent occurrence of intense rainfall events, this situation is likely to worsen in the future as a consequence of climate change. This calls for cross- and interdisiplinary programmes that can help improving the resilience of Andean communities.

In response to this call, the Peruvian Ministry of the Environment, in collaboration with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) under the Global Programme Climate Change (GPCC), initiated in 2009 the "Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú" (PACC), a programme that is now in its second phase. Invoking practitioners and scientists from various disciplines, the specific goal is to build awareness, improve preparedness, and support and promote the process of

adaptation. Its implementation includes the scientific assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, and the practical evaluation of adaptation options. This can be considered as a minimum framework to move from impacts to resilience.

With a focus on the implications of seasonal shifts in the precipitation regime for water availability and river discharge, in this contribution we present a few examples that illustrate the two steps involved in the implementation process. We first report on a modelling study of the impacts of climate change on the water resources in the Volcanita river basin. The results indicate an increase in river runoff during the rainy season, but an overall decrease in water storage. The former is expected to lead to higher flood peaks, whereas the latter is expected to entail water shortage, in particular during the dry season. This is of concern because communities have already to face loss of glacier ice in the Cordillera Volcanita, a process that is already changing the seasonality of water availability.

The second example is drawn from studies aiming at assessing the potential impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on rainfed annual crops in the Central Andes of Peru. While in the near future not all crops would suffer from the projected decrease in water availability, it is shown that the adaptation of the agricultural practices are necessary in the mid and long term to sustain production and improve the livelihood of the local population. Suggested adaptation measures include the adjustment of cropping calendars, the introduction of more robust crop varieties and alternative cropping systems and reconsideration of land use.

The third example shows how the rediscovery of low-cost, traditional technologies can contribute to improve the resilience of rural communities facing a decreasing availability of water resources. Specifically, we report on the outcomes of an effort to promote rustic micro-reservoirs called ochas. These were already used in ancient Peru but had largely fallen in disuse until recently. As a test, about 150 ochas were built between 2012 and 2013 in two small watersheds of the Peruvian Altiplano with the help of farmers and their families. Benefits from their establishment have included the recovery of downstream springs, the recovery of vegetation in the surroundings of the reservoirs and an overall easier access to water during the dry season.

## O-2211-03

# Impact analysis of Climate Change on Glacier and Water Potentiality in High Altitude Region of Western Himalaya

BW. Pandey (1)

(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Present research aims to investigate the issues concerning ecosydrology and potentiality of water in high mountain areas of Western Himalaya. Hindukush-Himalaya (HHK) region are the source of perennial rivers of South and East Asia which feed almost half of the world population. For the climate, people, economy and ecology, Hindukush-Himalaya region are known as "Human Equator" as drinking water for humans and animals; water for irrigation of food other agronomic practices; and, a very mountain-specific use: hydropower depend on water of the HKH Mountains. Increasing populations and economic transformations have exerted considerable pressure on South and water resources in Western Himalaya. Such changes have brought modifications in water flows, nutrients, sediments and pollutants as well as loss of biodiversity. Hence, the ecosydrological processes in headwater regions of western Himalaya, especially the role of natural processes, impact of human interference and climate change on the availability of water, highland-lowland interactive linkages, and sustainable use of water require attention for planning and conservation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a better understanding of the vulnerability of the land-water system to human activities and climate change impacts in high mountain region of Western Himalaya.
## Past and future changes in seasonal snow in the French Alps: implications for water resources, mountain tourism and available hazard

S. Morin (1); M. Dégue (2); H. Castebrunet (3); Y. Durand, (1); N. Eckert (4); H. François (5); E. George-Marcelpoil (5); G. Giraud (1); B. Hingard (6); M. Lafayse (1); E. Martin (7); M. Rousselot (1); P. Spandre (1); D. Verfaillie (1)

(1) Météo-France - CNRS, CNRM-GAME/CEN, St Martin d'Hères, France; (2) Météo-France - CNRS, Cnrm-game, Toulouse, France; (3) INSA Lyon, Lgcie-deep, Villeurbanne, France; (4) Irstea, Etna, Grenoble, France; (5) Irstea, Dtm, Grenoble, France; (6) LTHE, Grenoble, France; (7) Météo France, Cnrm-game, Toulouse, France

Snow on the ground is a key environmental and socio-economic component of mountain regions. Storage of water in the form of snow during the winter period provides freshwater input to ecosystems, agriculture and human consumption. Natural hazards such as snow avalanches and snowmelt floods cause loss of lives and disruption of human activities. Snow plays a pivotal role for numerous socio-economic activities such as hydropower (electricity generation and industry) and winter tourism.

The French Alps have encountered significant changes of snow conditions over the past decades, which can be inferred at the massif scale using the dedicated meteorological analysis system SAFRAN feeding the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Superimposed over a large year-to-year variability, these changes are most pronounced in mid-altitude areas which are highly sensitive to the rain/snow partitioning of precipitation. Such an extensive reanalysis of meteorological and snow conditions has been further used to un-bias and downscale regional climate model projections spanning the XXIst century. The presentation will highlight key results at the scale of the entire French Alps obtained using CMI3P projections and preliminary results using CMI3P/EUROCORDEX projections.

The interpretation of the numerical simulations spanning the observational era for the past decades and an ensemble of climate projections into the XXIst century not only addresses changes of snow conditions in terms of snow water equivalent, relevant for water resources, but also trends the seasonality of discharge in selected catchments, snow water balance and short- and long-term snow viability. The latter is currently being developed accounting not only for meteorological drivers of snow on the ground but also socio-economic components of mountain tourism including snow management practices and the spatial organization of ski resorts. This approach seeks at contributing to an integrated representation of the impact of climate change in mountain areas thereby helping to quantitatively assess the resilience of these sensitive environmental and socio-economic systems.

### O-2211-05

## Challenges and needs for interdisciplinary studies on mountain water resources: current issues and perspectives

JP. Dieudonné (1); I. Zin (2); T. Condom (3); JE. Sicard (3); Y. Arnaud (3); A. Rabatel (4); D. Six (4); C. Obled (5)

(1) CNRS, LTHE, Grenoble, France; (2) Grenoble INP, Lthe, Grenoble, France; (3) IRD, Lthe, Grenoble, France; (4) UJF, Lgge, Grenoble, France; (5) Lthe, Grenoble, France

Hydro-meteorological observations coupled with snow and ice measurements are the basic material for a number of scientific and operational issues linked to socio-environmental needs. They are required for studies aiming at understanding and modeling climate-environment-society interactions, along with their spatial and temporal variations. They constitute also the basic information for estimating hydrological resources and risks, real time operations or prospective studies for water management. The aim is to foresee adaptations strategies required by societies to face changes in resource and risks induced by ongoing global change. In mountainous areas, such observations are even more pronounced and variable than anywhere else, as hydro-meteorological events are more pronounced and variable than anywhere else. Major

difficulties due to topographical constraints as elevation and slopes, added to strong local weather conditions, reduce the capabilities of long-term observation networks in regard of lowlands observing systems.

Supported by the Laboratory of Hydrology and Environment (LTHE) and the Laboratory of Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics (LGGE), Grenoble, France, we focus here on some "Hot-Spot" application areas which federate cross-disciplinary approaches on several thematic fields (hydrology, glaciology, natural hazards versus socio-ecological systems, linked to national Programs (ANR, local stakeholders) and long term Observatory Programs (e.g., Glacioclim, Great Ice/IRD), Specific examples of case studies will be presented: the Chamonix-Mont Blanc area in the Alps (Europe), the Koshi river basin in the Himalayas (Nepal), and the Zongo glacierized catchment in the Andes (Bolivia). The interest of such federalative application areas is highlighted by various key hydrological fields, taken from the operational research or environmental monitoring domains. Measurement networks and observatories developed to meet the corresponding objectives are presented. Limits of observations, associated to the measurements themselves, spatial representativeness and temporal coverage are discussed. Some perspectives for improving current observations systems are finally suggested.

## O-2211-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2211-01

## Society adaptation for coping with mountain risks in the climate change context

S. Bernardie (1); G. Grandjean (2); N. Desramaut (1); M. Gremont (3); JP. Malet (4); A. Puissant (4); T. Houet (5); JM. Antoin (5); F. Bourrier (6); M. Fort (7); D. Pierre (8)

(1) BRGM, Risk and prevention, Orleans, France; (2) BRGM, Risk and Prevention, Orleans, France; (3) BRGM, Montpellier, France; (4) UNISTRA, Strasbourg, France; (5) GEODE, Toulouse, France; (6) IRSTEA, Grenoble, France; (7) PRODIG, Paris, France; (8) Geo-Hyd, Orléans, France

Mountains represent an important part of the global earth system. Because of their vertical extent, climate varies drastically with elevation and thus differs from those in adjacent mountainous areas. In controlled by hydro-meteorological triggers (e.g. floods, landslides, rockfalls) will add further environmental pressures on both social and natural systems, stressing the need to promptly conduct proactive adaptation plans. The relevance of mountain hazard and risk zonation for environmental policy and decision making is set forth in the European Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection and the associated proposal of a Framework Directive, in which hydro-meteorological hazards are considered as one of the soil threats for which it is necessary to identify risk areas where risk reduction measures have to be implemented. However, to implement risk mitigation strategies in an integrated way (e.g. including physical but also economic and social adaptation), additional research is needed on how climate controls mountain hazards occurrence. The influence of climate and climate change on slope stability and floods over various spatial and temporal scales has to be better understood and quantified. Studies are also needed on how the main economic, social and political stakeholders interact for the definition of adaptation scenarios at the region scale.

The SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change Context) project aims to develop a proactive resilience framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of climate change. The project aims to elaborate methodological tools to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal resilience from an operative perspective on three mountain representative case studies.

To achieve this objective, the methodology is split in several points with (1) the definition of the potential impacts of global environmental changes, climate system, ecosystem e.g. land use, socio-economic system on landslide hazards, (2) the analysis of these consequences in terms of vulnerability (e.g. changes in the location and characteristics of the impacted areas and level of their perturbation) and (3) the implementation of a methodology for quantitatively investigating and mapping indicators of mountain slope vulnerability exposed to several hazard
types, and the development of a GIS-based demonstration platform.

The strength and originality of the SAMCO project is to combine different techniques, methodologies and models (multi-hazard assessment, risk evolution in time, vulnerability functional analysis, and governance strategies) and to gather various interdisciplinary experts in earth sciences, environmental sciences, and social sciences.

The climate change inputs of the project correspond to at least 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 2.8, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the ALADIN-Climat model of Métoé-France, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the WRF model used by the IPSL. The impact of climate change is then firstly addressed through the use of these climate scenarios into hazards computations. In that way, future changes in temperature and precipitation volume and patterns are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of climatic change on mountain societies and their vulnerability to change.

Secondly, the climate change is also considered in global scenarios, with taking into account political actions at local and global scale that might influence the climate change as well as the land use planning in the areas of interest. It is then possible to identify the most important factors of community resilience (e.g. coping capacity) and their dependence upon controlling factors in order to propose risk management strategies adapted to possible impacts of global changes.

P-2211-02

## Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Potential of ICTs for Coping: A Case of Eastern Himalaya of Nepal

DR. Bhattarai (1)

(1) Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Environmental Sciences, Kathmandu, Nepal

Retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya have been reported to be related with the temperature rise in the region. Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are the growing climate induced hazards in the Himalaya. GLOF has increased the vulnerability of community and fragile ecosystem in the mountain valleys. This study has analyzed the potential impacts from GLOF in the highland of eastern Nepal and the potential role of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) to cope with such impacts. I analyzed the trend of climatic pattern (temperature and precipitation) of the Eastern Himalaya Region of Nepal available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, and prepared the latest location map of the glacial lakes using google earth and ArcGIS applications in the highland of the Kanchanjungra Conservation Area of the region. Tiptala glacial lake, located at an elevation of 4950 m. within the conservation area, was selected for the GLOF hazard assessment. I used semi-structured questionnaire survey and key informants' interviews in the community in order to assess the potential hazard of GLOF. With the varying sizes, 46 glacial lakes were located in the region, which covers over 2.57 sq. km in total. Though the larger portion of the downstream area of the Tiptala glacial lake fall in the remote location away from major residential area, few villages, major pastures and lands for Yaks, foot trails, and several bridges across the Tamor River below the lake are in risk of GLOF. Poor access due to extreme geographical remoteness and capacity to afford the modern technologies in the community are the major limiting factor to the knowledge and information about the climate change and related impacts. Modern ICTs has high potential to reduce the risk of climate related hazards in the remote area by information dissemination and awareness.

P-2211-03

## On the impacts of global warming on the deep peri-alpine Lake Geneva

S. Goyette (1) ; M. Perroud (1)

(1) Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Carouge, Switzerland

Observations over the period 1880 to 2012 indicate that the globally-averaged surface temperature data has increased from 0.65°C to 1.06°C IPCC (2013). During the 2nd half of the 20th century, the European climate experienced a wide range air temperature warming of 0.9°C, resulting in a wide range of impacts that followed the first signs of change. Global- mean surface temperature exhibits temporal and spatial variability. According to projections made for future climate, southern and central Europe would experience the largest changes in mean air temperature during summer while the northern regions would be more strongly affected during winter. Higher inland freshwater temperatures have been reported in response to warmer conditions. In many western European lakes climate warming has resulted in increased water column stability, longer stratified periods, and warmer temperatures in the epilimnion. These findings are in agreement with the observations for other middle- and high-latitude lakes. Jeppesen et al. (2012) analysed the impacts of climate warming on the long- term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes and found the mean water temperature of Lake Geneva increased by 0.17°C per decade since 1986, and lake stratification occurs "apparently" one month earlier than it did 30 years ago. This has impacted the fishery, with conditions favouring warmer water species and a dramatic reduction in some others. While the impacts of changes in climate in the Alps have been reported by many authors, very few studies have attempted to relate future climate projections to their potential impacts on peri-alpine lakes. This enhances the need to lead investigations on a variety of lakes, grabbing the opportunity to develop new methods. In order to avoid the computational load of complex models such as Global or Regional Climate Models, the use of a Single-Column atmospheric Model (SCM) coupled to a lake model provides a practical and economical framework for assessing the sensitivity of water temperature profiles to current and perturbed climatic conditions. Lake Geneva is a 89 km3 body of water shared by Switzerland and Belgium, which increases its size and depth all others that are connected with the main valleys of the Alps. Analyses reported by Anneville et al. (2013) from long-term observations and findings of research projects both led to the conclusion that climate change has already impacted Lake Geneva ecosystems and these are likely to continue when considering the predictions based on complex climate models. In a recent study on Lake Geneva by Perroud and Goyette (2012) using a SCM coupled to a lake model, it has been shown that increasing the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnetic temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. A strong rate of change in the mean epilimnetic temperature in the epilimnion would lead to an earlier onset of thermocline formation and this may explain the advance in spawning as reported by Gillet and Quetin (2006). At the same time, changes in plankton population dynamics with an advance of the spring bloom can be expected and may affect the timing of the clear- water phase of the lake. Climate, freshwater, biophysical and socio-economic systems are interconnected in complex ways. In 2008, freshwater-related issues are critical in determining the regional and global vulnerability levels, as aquatic ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services. Therefore, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species.

Anneville, O., et al., 2013: Arch.Sci., 66, 157-172.

Bates, C., et al., 2008: IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.

Gillet, C. and Quetin, P., 2006: J. Fish Biology, 69, 518-34.
Perroud, M., and S. Goyette, 2012: Water Resour. Res., 48,
doi:10.1029/2011WR011122.

Jeppesen, E., et al. 2012. Hydrobiologia, 694, 1-39.

IPCC, 2013: WGI, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
## Projected changes on the surface water resources of the Rherhaya basin (High Atlas, Morocco) by a set of Med-CORDEX models

L. Hanich (1) ; Y. Tramblay (2) ; A. Marchane (3) ; L. Jarlan (4) ; D. Ruelland (2)

(1) Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Sciences de la Terre, Marrakech, Morocco; (2) IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (3) Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Sciences de la Terre, Marrakech, Sciences de la terre, Marrakech, Morocco; (4) IRD - Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Toulouse, France

To anticipate the potential changes in water quantity available within the Rherhaya mountainous watershed (near to Marrakech), it's important to know the evolution of this resource in relation with climate changes. In this study we use the GR4J model with a snow module with time series of precipitations and discharge (1989 - 2009). The model was calibrated and validated successfully over various periods. Then we used an ensemble of 5 regional climate models (RCM) provided by the Med-CORDEX program with a method of perturbation by quantiles to simulate future scenarios of flow predictions.

The evaluation of the precipitations simulated by the RCMs models (RCM) shows a strong underestimation of ~50% but a good reproduction of the cycle for the temperatures. The future changes according to two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a rise of the temperatures (+1 +2.6%) respectively in conjunction with a decrease in total precipitation (-19%, - 31%). Concerning the hydrological modelling with GR4J, stable results are obtained for calibration and validation whatever the chosen period, with maximum bias of 15% in validation on the monthly flows. Flow forecasts (2049-2065) present a strong projected decrease in surface runoff (-30%, -60%) and significant drops of the snow-covered reservoir levels, related to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase.

## Debris flow in the French Alps in changing climate

V. Jomelli (1) ; N. Eckert (2) ; L. Pavlova (3) ; D. Brunstein (4)

(1) Cnrs, Physical geography, Meudon, France; (2) Irstea, Etna, Grenoble, France; (3) Unesco, Paris, France; (4) CNRS, Geography, Meudon, France

In the Alps, debris flows are a major threat as they periodically damage infrastructure, may even cause loss of life. The triggering process is definitely sensitive to climate change due to an interaction between meteorological and geomorphological factors, such as extreme precipitation, the local topography or the accumulation of rock debris. Evaluating the link between climate and debris flow activity is the necessary pre-request to estimate the impacts of future climate change.

Here we analyze the evolution of debris flow occurrence in the French Alps over the last four decades using an innovative probabilistic model which makes it possible to analyze the main environmental and climatic drivers of debris flow occurrence simultaneously, so as to quantify their respective influence at a regional scale.

As a case study, we extract 124 debris flow events triggered between 1970 and 2005 in 27 catchments located in the French Alps from the French national natural hazard survey and model their variability of occurrence considering environmental and climatic predictors at the same time. We document the environmental characteristics of each debris flow catchment (morphometry, lithology, land cover, and the presence of permafrost). We also compute 15 climate variables including mean temperature and precipitation between May and October and the number of rainy days with daily cumulative rainfall greater than 10/15/20/25/30/40 mm day-1. Application of our model shows that the combination of environmental and climatic predictors explained 77% of the overall variability of debris flow occurrences in this data set. We also note that the occurrence probabilities depend mainly on climatic variables, which mostly explain the variability through the number of rainy days and maximum daily temperature.

This important time component in the variability of overall debris flow occurrence is shown to be responsible for a significant increase in debris flow activity between 1970 and 2005 at regional scale. Environmental variables, which accounts for 1/3 of the overall variability, includes mostly the morphometric variables of the debris flow catchments.

## Diurinal cycle processes associated with precipitation in central Andes (Peru)

C. Junquas (1) ; K. Takahashi (2) ; S. Chavez Jara (2) ; T. Condom (3) ; JC Espinoza (2)

(1) Instituto geográfico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (2) Instituto geográfico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (3) IRD, Lthe, Grenoble, France

The identification of regional atmospheric processes is important to understand how the greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere could affect the precipitation and the water resources at a regional scale.

The atmospheric processes in the tropical Andes climate are of particular interest because in this region, mechanisms are associated with the interplay of complex orographic and convective processes characterizing the tropical climate. In the central Andes, physical processes associated with the humidity transport between the wet Amazon on the east and the dry Pacific on the west, and the spatio-temporal distribution of the precipitation are little understood.

The Andes cordillera is extended over almost all South America, that are 7000km between 45°S and 7°N. Its maximum width is 1800km in its central part. This configuration is unique in the planet, and consequently the glaciers in the tropical Andes represent 99% of the world tropical glaciers. These glaciers show a retreat since the PIA with an unprecedented acceleration since 70's. The risks generated by such glacier retreat are here in terms of hydrological resources, agriculture, hydro-electricity and turism. Tropical glaciers mass balance is strongly depending of humidity and precipitation, so it is important to study localized associated atmospheric processes. The identification of high-resolution horizontal scale climate mechanisms (some km) in terms of diurnal cycle could particularly help to understand how the atmospheric circulation influence the glaciers mass balance at diurnal time-scales. The characterization of humidity fluxes and of the associated spatial distribution of the precipitation in central Andes, with in addition the understanding of localized atmospheric processes in terms of diurnal cycle variability are the main objectives of this study.

Due to a poor number of in-situ meteorological stations in the region of the central Andes, we consider that a dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model is the most adequate methodology to improve the understanding of localized orographic processes in this region. The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used to simulate the climatological diurnal cycle of the wet season (austral summer) in the Cuzco region (central Andes), at a 9-km horizontal resolution and 3-hourly time resolution. The precipitation model outputs are compared with radar products of TRMM-2A25 and in-situ observations. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main diurnal precipitation features with rainfall maximum in the western cordillera during the afternoon, and in the eastern part of the cordillera during the night. The model also simulates both mechanical and thermo-dynamical orographic processes. For example, while some valleys are mainly affected by the well-known diurnal thermal valley/mountain circulation, others are more influenced by the large-scale moisture flow. This difference seems to be linked with the width and the orientation of the different valleys.

## The Himalayan Cryosphere and Highlanders' Adaptability: A Case Study of the Miyar Valley of Himachal Pradesh and North Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya

U. Lal (1)

(1) Sikkim University, Geography, Gangtok, Sikkim, India
Rugged topography coupled with high altitudinal areas between the Great Himalayan Range and the southern flank of the Tibetan Plateau presented a stage where the elements of Nature has been more pronounced than normally they are at other places. Thus, the history of the highlanders of the area has been basically the history of their direct response to the vacillation in the various elements of the climate. The highlanders of 3000 meters and above in both the Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan mountain-scapes responded directly to such changes which basically lead to changes in the Crysosphere.

Wandering of the Highlanders across rugged valleys and jagged pastures and passes in and across the Himalaya for trans-ecological exchanges. Initially, it was more of an ecological compulsion for a tenable survival amid harsh environmental conditions of higher altitudinal regions than for fortune or better resources. Thus, leading to making of the neighbouring highland societies both collaborator and competitor at the sometime.

With the basic premise that like any other place on the planet; Himalayan landscape did registered episodes of cooling and warming resulting into both glacial maximum and glacial minimum periods. Thus, resulting into advancement and retreat of permanent snowline in the area. This paper is an attempt to study the human habitation response to the cryospheric fluctuations based on the field investigation from Miyik Valley of Himachal Himalaya and North Sikkim Himalaya lying in Western and Eastern Himalaya respectively. This paper also underscores that remote Himalayan valleys have been inhabited since quite an early time rather than being colonised in the recent past.

The study combines the moraine sampling and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) analysis with simple random sampling and Focus Group Discussion to comprehend and capture the rough period of legends of rise and fall of remote Himalayan Villages which seems to be following the pattern of glacial maximum and minimum periods.

P-2211-08

## Impact of the Nurek Mountain Water Reservoirs in Tajikistan on Meteorological Conditions and Agriculture of Coastal Area

### I. Normatov (1)

(1) Institute of Water problems, Hydropower and Ecology, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

The purpose of the present research is the retrospective comparative analysis of statistical parameters of 60-year comparative ranks of temperature, atmospheric precipitation and humidity and monitoring of influence of the Nurek reservoir on a trend of change of these parameters. For establishment of influence of mountain reservoirs on possible changes of agroclimatic conditions we analyzed a trend of meteorological parameters of two regions of Dangara and Yavan of the Republic of Tajikistan with the developed agricultural branch coastal to the Nurek reservoir. Dynamics of change of humidity of Yavan district demonstrated that humidity of this area had everything the reducing character up to 1980 and was characterized by moderate increase of precipitation. After 1980 sharp increase and humidity and an atmospheric precipitation is observed. Calculations indicate about reduction of an atmospheric precipitation of Yavan for the periods 1950-1979 on 4.7 mm at their increase for the period 1980-2011 to 443 mm that in comparison with 1979 makes about 30%. Change of temperature of Yavan for the period 1980-2011 equals 1.1 C against his increase on 0.97 C for the period 1950-1979. Consequently, existence of the developed network of meteorological stations in mountain districts is pledge of receiving a real scenario of dynamics of meteorological parameters. It should be noted that continuous monitoring of meteorological parameters of large water reservoirs is important from the point of view of development of agriculture. Timely establishment of variations of weather conditions and development of technology of adaptation to the modern meteorological conditions and selection of agricultural grades steady against changes of climatic factors and stressful situations pledge of ensuring food security.

P-2211-09

## Creation of modern approach adaptation of water consuming branches to climate changes and degradation of glaciers

### P. Normatov (1)

(1) Tajik National University, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

One is actual problems of modernity is Global Climate Change and adequate behavior of the each component of ecosystems to this change. For the Tajikistan 93% territory, which do mountains and which characterized by availability more 8500 glaciers by the total area of 8476.2 km2 occupy, or about 6% of all territory of the Republic of Tajikistan is very important. There is a large unit of conglomeration in mountains Northwest Pamir with the center of Fedchenko glacier – the largest mountain glacier in the world. By 1988, the glacier has receded more than on 500 m and has decreased on the area for four square kilometers. In 1990, the Fedchenko glacier for the last century made 10–12 km2 one year. Average speed of movement of glacier in connection with loss of weight has decreased with 72 up to 69 sm daily. In total for 20th century the glacier has lost about 12–15 km3 ice. For last 16 years (1990 – 2006 years) a glacier of the Zeravshan River Basin has receded on 35–55 m annually the average its speed has made about 3 m per year though in the eightieth years of the last century it has made about 8 m annually. The created situation and prospect of development of the given trend of reduction of glaciers stimulates search of modern methods in preservation and an effective utilization of water resources. In this plan, building of reservoirs for water accumulation and corresponding corrective amendments in planning of the water use in agriculture is actual.

P-2211-10

## Historical and future changes in precipitation and snow in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as seen by CMIP5 models

E. Palazzi (1) ; S. Terzago (1) ; J. Von Hardenberg (1) ; A. Provenzale, (2)

(1) Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Torino, Italy; (2) Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG), National research council (cnr), Pisa, Italy

The Hindu–Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) mountains and the Tibetan plateau are the world's largest snow and ice reservoir outside the polar regions and they are often referred to as the "Third Pole". These mountains feed the most important Asian river systems, and changes in snow and precipitation dynamics in this area could severely impact on water availability for downstream populations, agriculture and energy production, ecosystems and biodiversity.

Despite their importance, precipitation and snowpack characteristics in the HKKH region are still poorly known, owing to the limited availability of surface observations in this remote and high elevation area. Global Climate Models (GCMs) still have too coarse spatial resolution to reproduce the small scale variability of precipitation and snow in orographyically complex environments. Nevertheless, they may be effective in providing, even at a regional scale, a smooth but coherent picture of the large scale temporal and spatial patterns of these two variables in these areas. The quantification of the uncertainties in GCM simulations is essential to define the models skills in reproducing climate variability and to critically analyze future climate change projections.

We investigate how the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and snowpack in the HKKH region is represented in historical and future simulations of the state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the CMIP5 effort, and we investigate the role of elevation-dependent surface warming. The model outputs in the historical period are compared with the main, currently available, observational datasets including surface- and satellite- based observations and reanalysis data.