Strategies on climate change and development cooperation are both evolving rapidly within Europe. Improved scientific understanding about climate change and responses to it show the need for urgent action. This is the chasm between emission reductions pledged by countries and the actual reductions needed to stay within a safe global carbon budget. The aid landscape is also changing fast, after years of seeming stability. With the emergence of new donors (both sovereign states and private foundations) complexity is likely to increase through to 2020. As a result, the traditional multilateral and bilateral donors are likely to lose influence and power. But within the climate change framework there is still unfinished business for traditional

donors, particularly in relation to the provision of finance and technology for developing countries. The European Union (EU) has stepped up to its historic responsibilities and climate change has become an increasingly important component of its development cooperation effort. But how will this play out over the next decade and what can we learn from recent trends? This paper aims to seek answer to this question. Secondary data have been used in the paper and methodology of analysis is "descriptive research method". Within the framework of this objective, it touches upon relevance from development cooperation for climate change.

# 3340 - Conflict and Climate Change

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-3340-01

#### Climate Change: Adding Fuel to The Fire of Iran's Inter-provincial Water Conflicts?

H. Najafi (1)

(1) University of Tehran, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

Results recently found in the Iranian third national report on climate change reveal there is evidence that several parts of the country are likely to face hotter and drier climate in the future. Nevertheless, climate impact studies still have not been incorporated into decision making processes not only in the most recent national comprehensive water plan but also as a compulsory analysis of any development schemes at the implementation phase. This paper aims at understanding the role of climate change impact assessments studies on regional conflicts over shared water resources in Iran. Two of the most important river basins at the western part of Iran are illustrated, Lake Urmia and Karkheh. The former is shared between three provinces where the latter is shared between seven riparian ones. Lake Urmia has suffered serious environmental challenges in recent years. Thirteen main rivers flowing into the lake are all experiencing decreasing surface runoffs in recent fifteen years ranging from 26 to 70 percent compared to their long term average of 1969-1999. Likewise, changes in potential renewable water resources have dropped by one forth in Karkheh river basin attributing to several factors including decreasing trend of precipitation as well as increasing infiltration and overuse of water consumption. With the observed trends in decreasing streamflow, policymakers have seriously attempted to attribute the contribution of each of the climate variability and change as well as basin-wide water resource consumptions. In retrospect, aggressive development projects threatening sustainability of resources should have been avoided. Meanwhile, recent impact studies over the two river basins have suggested that climate change is expected to aggravate available water resources challenges under some projections of the IPCC's AR4 emissions scenarios. Surprisingly enough, the competition over exhausting water resources is likely to turn out to be the Tragedy of the commons under compounded impacts of climate change and mismanagement measures leading to conflicts arising when available resources are diminished.

Each of the so called inter-provincial basins are managed by regional (provincial) water companies. The paper suggests that in addition to the past mismanagements which has been found as a driving force of current inter-provincial conflicts, the current climate change together with a decrease in mean annual rainfall and runoff in the face of climate change inevitably intensifies competition over the limited available resources. When surface water is not available then other sources will be sought after such as groundwater. Consequently, conflicts begin over the use and ownership of water in many settings. From 1974 to 2012, an average of 27 MCM of decrease per year in average water volume, an average of twelve aquifers adjacent to the Lake Urmia. In the view of this situation, neglecting to consider climate change projections is likely to expose natural systems to serious damage, even potentially irreversible in many unsustainable ecosystems such as Lake Urmia and Hoor-Al-Azim marshland at the outlet of the Karkheh river basin. Considering the high vulnerability of water resources systems, agriculture, and energy sectors together with fragile socio-economic features, conflicts over these common pool resources, will

probably be unavoidable. Ultimately, understanding the effects of current development plans and climatic changes in the status of the mentioned sectors can help taking timely actions to alleviate probable conflicts. Given such a scenario, there have recently been progressive attempts in the Iranian Ministry of Energy (MOE), the main organization responsible for water resources planning and management to launch a specialized working group to address climatic change related predicaments. However, this paper argues that there are some main stumbling blocks still remained untouched on the subject. Implementation of integrated river basin management, developing climate frameworks based on integrating Top-down and Bottom-up approaches, thorough uncertainty analysis in addition to hedging between adaptation strategies and mitigation must be performed circumventing such a situation. At the end, the paper suggests that climate change is likely to add salt to the wound of the current challenges from a multi-sectoral point of view and that comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on water bodies followed by a comprehensive resolution provides alerting symptoms for future decision making processes and further action plans.

### O-3340-02

#### Climate-related disasters and armed conflict outbreaks - Evidence for significant co-incidences from the observational record

CF. Schleussner (1) ; J. Donges, (2) ; R. Donner, (3)

(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam, Germany; (3) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Armed conflicts are the result of a highly context-specific mixture of a variety of socio-economic factors and their multiple causality structure, which renders the attribution of armed conflicts to single factors a practically impossible task. Nonetheless, there is great interest in empirical evidence if and how much changes in potentially determining factors, in particular such related to climate change, alter the risk of conflict outbreaks at the global scale. Whether or not climate change is already contributing to armed conflict outbreaks and conflict risk is very controversial, in particular since the numerous interactions between climate change and socio-economic factors are difficult to capture by standard statistical methods.

Here we address this question regarding the specific case of climate-related extreme economic damage events. We present a comprehensive analysis of the co-occurrence between such events and conflict outbreaks for the period 1980-2011. While there is no significant statistical relationship between extreme damage events and the outbreak of armed conflicts at the global scale, for subsets of particularly conflict-prone countries of up to 10% or more of all conflict outbreaks robustly coincide with climate-related extreme economic damage events.

Our analysis reveals that climate-related extreme damage events, while not directly causing armed conflicts, can indeed significantly contribute to conflict risk in environmentally vulnerable and conflict-prone regions and possibly trigger the timing of conflict outbreaks. Given the still high number of countries at risk and the observed and projected increase in severe climate extremes, this relation represents a serious risk to societies globally.
# Climate change induced migration and conflicts in Nigeria

O. Ouyoviroye (1)

(1) University of Benin, Geography and Regional Planning, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The challenges associated with climate change have started threatening the common future of the world inhabitants. While the challenge of some localities is associated with too much water, other areas are faced with the problem of too little water available for use. Nigeria is being threatened by these two climate change challenges and each of these scenarios will result to forced migration. While the southern part of Nigeria is experiencing coastal inundation due to sea level rise, the north is being afflicted with the burden of desertification. These combined forces of climate change impact in Nigeria, prompted this study that investigated the impact of climate change on migration and possible conflicts in Nigeria. Climatic data (air temperature, rainfall amount and rainy days) for 60 years (1955 -2014) from 30 synoptic stations in Nigeria were analysed to evaluate the possible signals of climate change. With the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, vulnerable areas due to coastal inundation and desertification were modelled, population affected was determined and the ecological zones that will absorb the potential migrants and the expected conflicts due to such migration were analysed. The GIS technique was also used to construct the isohyets and isotherms so as to analyse the changes in climatic patterns. Time series analysis was employed for the climatic trends. 600 copies of a questionnaire were administered in six states (three in the coastal area and three in the semi-aid region) randomly selected to solicit information on the level of vulnerability, impacts and local adaptation strategies to climate change and possible migration and conflicts. These were analysed using different statistical and cartographic techniques. The results show rising temperature of 1.92°C for the 60 years. Although decreasing rainfall amount and rainy days were observed, a slightly increasing rainfall amount was noticed in the coastal area in the past two decades. A gradual shift in reduced rainfall during the short-dry-season from August to July was noticed. Another observed pattern is the southward shift in the line dividing the double rainfall peaks, thus increasing the tropical continental climate area and decreasing equatorial climatic region. Moreover, while sea level rise of 1 metre will affect 5.4% of Nigeria's landmass and 16% of the population, desertification will affect 38% of the landmass and 33% of the population. Both events may force about 49% of Nigerians from the coastal and semi-aid regions to the guinea savannah and the northern part of the forest ecological zones. This will result to scramble for arable land for farming, grazing and water resources, among others. Conflict between farmers and herdersmen is already on in Nigeria and this may intensify with increasing impact of climate change on natural resources (arable land, grasses and water). The conflicts between farmers and herdersmen have claimed 496 lives in the guinea savannah and the northern part of the forest ecological zones of Nigeria between 2013 and 2014. Adaptation measures are recommended to reduce the impacts of climate change and also to minimize migration and the associated conflicts.

# Sovereignty: The Unfocused Era of 'loss and damage' at Climate Summit

A. Naznin (1)

(1) Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra, ACT, Australia

One of the major decisions of COP19 is a new "Warsaw International Mechanism will be created to provide help for poorer countries hit by extreme weather events" for loss and damage issue under the Cancun Adaptation Framework-CAF. However beneath this major outcome there is a deep concern and state security associated which

is yet, uncounted and overlooked. Slow onset events under loss and damage were identified as "sea level rise, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization" etc., however, in the case of Bangladesh, "the discussion on sea level rise and salinization centred on approaches rather than needs" which indicates the uncertainty and lack of investigation and measurement in this area. The technical paper of CAF and Warsaw negotiation text both have missed the dilemma of state security while they are concentrated on 'Vulnerable developing countries will be the hardest hit due to their low adaptive capacity'; 'Slow onset events are already affecting developing countries and the resulting loss and damage'. The CAF and Warsaw agreement both have clearly missed the regional security aspect; for example, the economy of Bangladesh is poor than India which should mean that India has better adaptive capacity than Bangladesh. Since Bangladesh and India share borders, and economic opportunity is far better in India, there is potential that India will be severely affected from any emergency or slow onset climatic events in Bangladesh. This paper investigates potential geographical changes following mass migration flow brought by the loss and damages in reference to water stress in regional scale. Using high level policy interviews conducted in Bangladesh and comparing two census data of Bangladesh-India, this paper presents two tipping points which offers an important insight of the state security risk.

# Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict and the Conflict Trap along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

E. Gilmore (1) ; H. Hegre, (2) ; J. Nordkvelle, (3) ; S. Waldhoff, (4)

(1) University of Maryland, School of Public Policy, College Park, MD, United States of America; (2) Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; (3) Peace Research Institute,Oslo, Oslo, Norway; (4) Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, United States of America

We investigate how "conflict trap" dynamics, specifically through reduced economic growth as a result of armed conflict, may lead to new and more persistent conflicts over the century. Intrastate conflict has widespread impacts on socioeconomic development. Importantly, conflict depresses economic productivity which in turn lowers the opportunity costs for renewed conflict. Further, economic impacts may be further exacerbated by climate change. To examine how these dynamics may evolves as a function of different expectations of economic growth, we generate our projections along the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed by the climate change community to evaluate the impacts of climate change and policy.

To develop our projections, we first generate a model where armed conflict and economic growth are endogenous. We estimate the reduction in GDP per capita from the incidence of conflict, the duration and the effect of neighboring countries in conflict as well as the post conflict recovery using historical data. Second, we use a simulation approach to project the onset, incidence and termination of armed conflict along the five alternative economic scenarios represented by the SSPs, revising the GDP projections for conflict.

We find that the projections of armed conflict are a strong function of the assumptions about economic growth. Scenarios lower GDP growth over the course of the century experience higher propensities for armed conflict. Adjusting the expected GDP growth for armed conflict worsens the expectations, especially for regions which already experience conflict. As the projected damages from climate change increase in severity, the ability to update the SSPs for these impacts will be become more important for evaluating the full range of damages over time.
# 3341 - Gender and Climate Change: From Vulnerability to Mainstreaming in Adaptation and Mitigation

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3341-01

#### Is gender being meaningfully engaged in climate change adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research?

**A. Bunce (1) ; J. Ford (1)**

(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada

The last decade has experienced a rapid growth in climate change adaptation, resilience and vulnerability (ARV) research. Concurrently, there is growing recognition that climate change impacts and experiences are gendered, and must be accounted for in research. Yet some have argued that engagement with 'gender' has been tokenistic, simply stating that climate change will have differential impacts. It is therefore necessary, given the rapid expansion of literature in this field, to critically analyze the framing of concepts of gender within the literature. In order to determine how meaningfully gender is being addressed in ARV research, we created a conceptual model capturing key components of 'meaningfulness.' Meaningfulness is ascribed as being a function of gender mainstreaming, the experience of gender, and the degree of action being taken. Using a systematic literature review methodology, 123 bi reviewed ARV articles with a gender focus were analyzed.

While 41% of analyzed articles were found to have high levels of meaningfulness, significant variations across regions and disciplines emerged. Research occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa was found to consistently engage with gender in a highly meaningful manner. Although a great deal of gender focused ARV research is occurring in Bangladesh and Australia, overall these nations exhibited low levels of meaningfulness. Health, environmental management, and hazards research emerged as disciplines engaging with gender in the most meaningful manner, although areas needing improvement became apparent. Gender focused work in this field focuses almost exclusively on women, with very little research examining male experiences and no work accounting for those identifying outside the gender binary. While meaningful work is occurring, 31% of the surveyed research was found to have low levels of meaningfulness, demonstrating a need to highlight meaningful methods to reconcile climate change and gender. This conceptual model provides a baseline understanding of how ARV research is integrating concepts of gender into their work which researchers can use to ensure more meaningful engagement with gender in future research.

### O-3341-01

#### Looking beyond gender in humanitarian interventions: a study of a drought-stricken region of Kenya

**W. Ndenyele (1)**

(1) Technical University of Mombasa, Liberal Studies, Mombasa, Kenya

Slow-onset disasters such as droughts usually occur with such frequency that people have no time to recover before the onset of the next drought. All members of the community suffer as a result of recurrent droughts, but the effects are often more severe vulnerable groups such as children, elderly people, and some women. This paperises the experiences of the relief organisation Kujenga Maisha East Africa (KUMEA)to understand the importance of looking beyond gender in humanitarian interventions. Here we focus on the importance of understanding the socio-economic and politicalcontext surrounding the drought and the associated humanitarian interventions,using a feminist lens to assess power relations. This includes looking into the aspectof vulnerability and resourcefulness in the context of food security, food distribution,nutrition, and livelihood assistance. Such knowledge is vital in improving existingapproaches to gender programming in humanitarian organisations.

### O-3341-02

#### The importance of marital status and intrahousehold relations in climate change adaptation: Evidence from rural Tanzania

**K. Van Aelst (1)**

(1) Institute of Development Policy and Management, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium

Even though scholars have widely recognized that women in developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, only scant attention has been drawn to how women and men are practically dealing with these differential vulnerabilities. Climate change scholars have recognized gender as an influential factor in climate change adaptation, but generally simplify and dichotomize between men and women as homogeneous categories. Gender analysts however, have recognized the importance of the intersections between gender and other socio-economic characteristics like class, household structure, life cycle stage and age. Based on both quantitative and qualitative methods, this research examines how women's adaptation strategies are mediated through their marital status in rural Tanzania. This study finds evidence, first, for female divorcés' and widows' disadvantaged position in agricultural water management compared to married women. Second, with regard to livelihood diversification, evidence is found of a diversification of household level, combined with specific climate change individual members' level, as well as of female divorcés' high involvement in off-farm income-earning activities. We develop a typology to illustrate how adaptive capacity relates to marital to status and intrahousehold relations, and suggest that the respondents' current climate change adaptation strategies risk increasing married women's dependence on men and worsening their intra-household bargaining position.

### O-3341-03

#### Women in Changing Climate: Findings from Cyclone Aila Affected Coastal Communities of Bangladesh

**MA. Nahian (1) ; GT. Islam, (2) ; SK. Bala, (2)**

(1) International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icdd, b). Dhaka, Bangladesh, Center for Population, Urbanization and Climate change (CPUCC), Dhaka, Bangladesh; (2) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Institute of water and flood management (iwfm), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Climate change is harsh reality in Bangladesh in terms of gradual changes and disaster events. The country has been identified as most vulnerable to tropical cyclones, third most vulnerable to sea level rise and sixth most vulnerable to floods. However, climate change associated adversity and vulnerability is contextual and gender specific and is magnifying the socially constructed inequalities between men and women where women are always the worst victim due to their gender differentiated roles and lack of access and control over resources. The study, carried out in three major cyclone Aila affected unions- tried to explore the gender dimension of climate change induced vulnerability considering women not only the victim rather an agent of change. Contrary to common vulnerability analysis and studies, this study tried to quantify vulnerability with a developed matrix framework in a scale of 3.0. The gender dimension of climate change induced vulnerability has been assessed in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; considering both gradual changes or climate events and disaster events or climate extremes. The primary idea of the vulnerability assessment has been derived from the concept of Sustainable Livelihood Framework and Harvard Gender Analytical Framework. Using the basic and simplest equation of "Vulnerability = (Exposure x Sensitivity) / Adaptive Capacity," the matrix framework calculated contextual vulnerability and total vulnerability based on community (woman group only) perception. The vulnerability assessment of gender community, i.e. women has been done in Padmapakur and Gabura unions from Shyamnagar upazilla, Satkhira and
In Jordan, women's management of small-scale irrigation projects and involvement in water harvesting and soil conservation improves the efficiency of water use. In Nepal, women farmers avoid crop failure in the face of changing weather patterns by growing off-season vegetables and bananas, which are more resilient to flood and drought. In Mozambique, women's groups and traditional healers can offset the impacts of climate change and improve community health with 'climate change health kits'— comprising traditional and local medicinal plants, like citronella to ward off mosquitoes. Women often lead the way in adapting to climate change impacts but they also play a key role in mitigating climate change by optimizing energy efficiency, using low-footprint energy sources and techniques, playing a vital role in forest management and mechanisms such as REDD+, and influencing a household's and community's consumption patterns.

Until recently, policy at the global and national level did not reflect this reality. For more than twenty years, gender gaps, especially in climate change, have been recognized by Frank Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in the decision making by its Parties and in subsidiary bodies. This lack of a connection at the global and national level between gender and climate change prompted action on the issue. Now, after years of advocacy, outreach, capacity building, and awareness-raising, governments have agreed multilaterally that advancing gender equality is a key component in achieving climate change goals.

Since 2008, nearly 40 UNFCCC decisions on climate change have integrated specific text on gender concerns. From promoting women's participation and leadership to gender safeguards and assessments, all vital areas of climate change response include key issues for women's and gender equality—all toward ensuring more effective climate change policymaking and planning. At COP20 in Lima, Parties decided on further action for implementation of the mandates through a specific gender decision and the creation of the 2-year Lima Work Programme on Gender.

This session will explore the opportunities for implementation of the Lima work programme and how it will advance gender balance and enhance gender-responsive international climate change policy. A critical step in the implementation process will be presented at this conference: how to effectively anchor the international agreements on gender and climate change within the national contexts.

Over the last five years, International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Global Gender Office (GGO) has spearheaded innovative work on this very topic. It has supported, to date, 15 countries through processes to develop national Climate Change and Gender Action Plans (ccGAPs.). This unique effort was born in response to the changing political context and subsequent official requests from governments all over the world to 'turn words into action' and develop concrete action plans on gender and climate concerns. Participants in this session will learn how the ccGAP process facilitates, via a participatory, multi-stakeholder and multi-sectoral approach, gender mainstreaming throughout a country's priority sectors, especially integrating gender concerns and gender-responsive components into national climate change strategies, communications, programmes, and projects. An important principle of the ccGAP methodology is to empower women as valuable partners in climate change response—so women and men alike are not merely victims but resilient agents of change.

Dakhin Bedkashi union, Koyra upazilla of Khulna in 2012 where the impact of cyclone Aila was most pronounced and after effect was lasted for several years. The climate change induced vulnerability of gender community of Padmapukur, Gabura and Dakhin Bedkashi was 2.56, 2.53 and 2.61 respectively. It was found that, respondents from Padmapukur and Gabura unions perceived themselves more vulnerable to climate change associated gradual changes or climate events whereas Dakhin Bedkashi respondents identified themselves as vulnerable to climate change associated extremes or disaster events. Interestingly, the perceptions greatly coincided with direct impact, number of causualities, damage done and post disaster response and development intervention as well as location of study areas. The basic idea behind the vulnerability assessment matrix development was to provide tool that can capture overall gender dimension of vulnerability due to climate change impact. Community, based on their perception ranked impact (expulsion), effect (sensitivity) and effectiveness (adaptive capacity) to assess their geo-specific vulnerability; the total vulnerability score for all three study area read in moderate to extreme category. The linkage among exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity showed that Bangladesh had remarkably success in disaster preparedness; but significantly lacked experience to deal with the ongoing changes taking place in climate. The study also explored various communities' experiences. Women were asked to climate change associated events and extremes and accumulated suggestion for disaster preparedness, improvement in cyclone warning signal and modification for gender friendly design of cyclone shelters. Key suggestions also been assessed in line with climate change coping, adaptation and mitigation directly from the climate vulnerable community. Women is the integral part of the society and sustainable development initiatives and during the study period, the United Nations Framework 'bottom up-top support' institutional framework for gender mainstreaming.

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given their limited capacity to adapt. Strengthening agricultural production systems is therefore a fundamental means of improving incomes and food security for the largest group of food insecure households. To build such systems, development practitioners have advocated for climate smart agriculture, a system that sustainably increases productivity and system resilience while reducing vulnerability of smaller farmers. This requires a substantial investment in agricultural technology innovations. While climate smart agriculture through agricultural technology innovations has been introduced in Kenya, their proliferation has been low, slow and incomplete among the smaller farmers. To address this, a participatory research project funded by the Canadian International Food Security Research Fund endeavoured to catalyze large scale adoption of agricultural innovations that enhance social and ecological resilience in Kenya's Semi-arid lands. The study focused on the adoption of three technologies: improved maize seeds, improved green gram seeds and indigenous chicken. Based on household survey data collected from Machakos and Makuendi counties in Kenya, this study sought to determine the gender differences in the adoption of multiple resilient farming technologies among the smaller farmers in semi-arid eastern Kenya using gender of the farm manager as the gender identifier. It also examines the factors that influence household level of resilience measured by the number and types of technology adopted. The results show that male-headed households differ significantly with the de facto female-headed households in terms of age, education, number of trainings and the adoption of a combination of improved maize and indigenous chicken. On the other hand, de facto and de jure female-headed households differ significantly with regard to age, education, crop mix, remittances and the adoption of improved maize, improved green grams and a combination of a combination of improved maize and indigenous chicken. Order probit model results on determinants of household resilience indicate that

household type, education, land size, crop mix and market opportunity groups are key in influencing household resilience. This emphasizes the need for greater investment in gender and rural agricultural development to ensure equitable and sustainable livelihood improvements.
# Mainstreaming gender in climate compatible development

V. Le Masson (1)

(1) Overseas Development Institute, Social Development / Climate and Environment, LONDON, United Kingdom

While there has been progress on acknowledging the gender dimension as an integral part of climate policy at international, national and local levels around the world, there is still a long way to go to promote gender equality in climate negotiations.

Yet, recognising and exploring the gender dimension of climate change enables responses to be more grounded in people's daily realities. Through highlighting societal factors that influence people's vulnerability to environmental shocks and stresses, a gender perspective helps uncovering for instance, how men are distressed to the point of suicide in India due to agricultural losses leading to an inability to repay loans[i]; and the way in which women are more likely to die from floods because they have not learned to swim[ii] and cannot leave their houses without being accompanied by a male relative[iii].

A gender analysis in climate research allows understanding of socially constructed gender roles, relations and discrimination that shape the way climate change is perceived by men and women, how it will affect them differently and how they might organise different responses to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to longer-term impacts. This recognition has influenced the climate change and development communities to adopt various mainstreaming approaches to integrate gender into projects and programmes.

This presentation will document a few examples where projects have integrated gender considerations to highlight:

* what knowledge a gender approach enabled to uncover;

* challenges and opportunities to implement gender integrated planning;

* potential negative impacts of a gender-blind approach;

* any opportunities to foster greater gender equality and better climate compatible development outcomes.

Lessons from these examples will serve to draw recommendations for future projects and for policies to ensure that attention to gender equality is not sidelined in climate debate and programming. This is particularly crucial for supporting the Lima Work Programme on Gender which aims to promote a greater awareness and consideration of gender issues within climate policy for COP21 and beyond.

**References:**

[i] Kennedy, J. King, L. (2014) The political economy of farmers' suicides in India: indebted cash-crop farmers with marginal landholdings explain state-level variation in suicide rates. Globalisation and Health. 10(16).

[ii] Alam, E. Collins, A. (2010). Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh. Disasters, 34(4): 931-954.

[iii] Bradshaw, S., & Fordham, M. (2013). Women, Girls, and Disasters: A Review for DFID. London: Department for International Development (DFID).

## 3341-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3341-01

#### Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change and Extremes: Learning from Women's Livelihood in the Coastal Area of Bangladesh:

M. Asaduzzaman (1) ; S. Momtaz (1) ; M. Sherval (1)

(1) The University of Newcastle, School of Environmental and

Bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its disadvantageous geographic location; flat and low-lying topography; high population density; high levels of poverty; and reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors. It is assumed that women are particularly the most capable group able to influence the climate change impacts. Rural women are, educationally, politically and socially disadvantaged, resulting in economic dependency and vulnerabilities. Growing empirical evidence supports the broad view that women's overall low access to assets, service and voice makes women more vulnerable than men to the effects of climate change and natural disasters (World Bank, 2011). This study particularly examines the context of vulnerabilities of women in the disaster prone areas of Bangladesh, the impact of climate change and extremes on women's livelihood, and the adoption approaches that are followed by the women in response to climate change and extremes. The study was conducted following questionnaire survey method, focus group discussion, and key informants' interview in Hyamnagar upazila (sub unit of district) of Satkhira district. Shyamnagar is the most southern upazila of this district, and the Sundaran laid down in the major part of this upazila. The upazila occupies about 2000 km² area including 1630 km² forest area. The upazila consists of 13 unions (lower administrative unit), and the average population of each union is 24137 (Banglapedia, 2011). This area is situated in the most southwest part of the country, and widely exposed to the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, sea level rise, salinity, water logging, water surge, cyclone, increased temperature, all these climate change impacts are prominent there. This area is also known to have severe severe catastrophic event 'cyclone Aila'. During the cyclone Aila in 2009, this upazila was severely affected, almost 100 percent of the households were affected and their livelihoods were lost (UNDP, 2009). The sustainable livelihood framework (SRF) has been applied to analyse the data of the present study. Sustainable Livelihoods Approach serves as an instrument for the investigation of poor people's livelihoods, whilst visualising the main factors of influence. The result shows that several climate change events are simultaneously affecting this area increasingly for decades. These include salinity, frequent occurrence of disasters (e.g. cyclone), extreme weather condition (e.g. high temperature), water logging, flood, and sea level rise. Almost 100% of the respondents in personal interviews and focus group discussions identified these observations about climate change effects over time. The major effects they identified are: increased damage to livestock and poultry (80%), infrastructural damage (95%), and health damage (65%). Women are particularly affected as they have less income opportunity, facing health problems, food deficiency, malnutrition, and problems of housing and drinking water. Moreover, women are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts since they have less mobility and less education due to social and religious norms. The absence of empowerment restricts women to take decision in any kind of natural and other events. Their options for adapting with climate change effects are also very limited which put them in a very insecure position. The common adaptation practices they follow are reduce food intake (90%), selling of assets (80%), receiving credit (98%), using saving (100%), seek alternative livelihood (95%), and use of social cards (92%). The adaptation options are mostly temporary and do not ensure the sustainable livelihood of women. They are struggling to adapt with the climate change scenario yet they have to do a responsible job for their entire family. In practice, concerted efforts from all concerned are required both at the national and the grass-roots levels to uphold the present distressed condition of women in the study area and to get adapted them in the ongoing challenges of climate change.

### P-3341-02

#### What does it take to see transformative adaptation? Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Q. Bernier (1) ; P. Kristjanson (2) ; R. Meinzen-Dick, (1)

(1) IFPRI, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) ICRAF, Washington, DC, United States of America

Throughout sub-Saharan Africa, men and women are already adapting to climate change. However, these changes are often small, incremental changes that
modify existing practices, such as modifying planting dates or changing crop varieties (Twyman et al. 2014). Encouragingly, we do see some farmers taking up what we term transformative practices - practices that contribute to diversified livelihoods, aim to buffer the household against climate changes, increase assets, and have a longer-term time horizon, but also require investments of time, labor, or cash. Transformative adaptations are both technological and behavioral and may require an adjustment in how resources are allocated. For example, in Kenya (Kate, Travis, and Wilbanks 2012), these transformative adaptations face significant barriers, including uncertainty in climate changes, perceived costs, and institutional and behavioral barriers (Ibid). Using a data set collected under the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Research Program of the CGIAR, this paper analyzes the social, behavioral, and institutional determinants of transformative adaptations in Kenya, Uganda, and Senegal, including perceptions and experiences of climatic risk and shocks and identifies differences between men and women in terms of developing and promoting adaptive capacity. This information will be important for practitioners and policymakers seeking to identify barriers and manage tradeoffs in adaptation options at individual and household levels, as well as ensuring that both men and women have the capacities and resources to adapt to long-run climate change.

### P-3341-03

## Rebuilding Home-Women's Informal Participation in the Post-disaster Reconstruction and Recovery in Rural Areas, Sichuan, China

C. Hou, (1) ; H. Wu (1)

(1) Sichuan Agricultural University, School of architecture and urban-rural planning, Dujiangyan, Sichuan, China

The vulnerable population, such as females, seniors and youths, is possible to be hit the hardest by the climate changes. Their capacity to response and their resilience towards climate changes are much lower than other groups. In the rural area of Sichuan, China, due to the fact that the adult men are usually migrant workers in the urban area, their wives, elderly parents and children are the main residents in the local rural area. Hence, facing the extreme events (such as flood, landslide, earthquake, etc.) caused by the climate changes, the adult women play an important role in dealing with those crisis as well as the reconstruction and recovery issues after those crisis's. According to the Chinese governance, however, the different levels of government conduct almost all of these reconstruction and recovery projects. This kind of government-led model extremely limits local inhabitants' participation in the process of reconstruction and recovery and most local dwellers could be only informally involved into this process. Therefore, under this unique situation, this paper examines how the local adult female residents' informal participation contributes to post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. Conducting the in-depth interviews and participated observations with the local adult woman in the reconstruction area, this paper explores the role of the adult female residents' engagements into place-making process of rebuilding their own housing in the reconstruction stage. This paper argues that the local women's limited informal participation in the reconstruction promotes their emotional attachment towards the newly built environment. This kind of emotional attachment could ease their relocation and resettlement process and eventually identify the newly built environment as their new home.

### P-3341-04

## Poverty-Environment mainstreaming role of improved stoves in the fight against climate change

T. Jean Michel (1)

(1) Environnement Recherche développement (ERD), Yaoundé, Cameroon

As part of improving the living conditions of local populations and promoting environmental education, Environmental Research Development (ERD) organization with assistance from GEF Small Grants Program realized in 18 months, a pilot project to fight against the effects of

climate change. The project was oriented towards school children in their campuses as part of their initiation to trees planting, and to the population of the five target areas the promotion of sustainable development at local level: Bockle, Sangere-Paul, Ndiam-Baba, Sangere-LANAVET and Sanguère-Gal. Among other activities, training in the construction and use of improved wood burning stove has been a flagship activity.

A total of 278 people were trained theoretically and practically on improved stove manufacturing technics: Ndiam-Baba: 40 people (35 women 5 men), Sangere-LANAVET: 69 people (60 women + 9 men), Sanguère-Gal: 60 people (57 women 3 men), Bockle: 55 people (54 women +1 men) Sangere-Paul: 54 people (49 women 5 men). The great campaign of improved wood burning stove construction yielded 263 cookstoves: Ndiam-Baba (36) Sangere-LANAVET (65) Sangere-Gal (55) Bockle (54) and Sangere-Paul (53).

Indeed, it should be noted that 85% of the trainees are now use improved stoves. The use of these stoves have a positive impact on climate change in these localities as the people who use them save half of the wood needed for cooking their meals. The people who use these stoves save half of wood needs for cooking. In addition, this reduction on wood consumption thus shows an interesting decrease of pressure on the trees in these targeted communities. Similarly, say the past, the use of improved wood burning stove has positive health impacts and some family expenses related to the acquisition of wood and cleaning cooking pots

Project sustainability is ensured by the ownership communities through the Environmental Watchdog Committee (EWC) and organized the improved wood burning stove construction sessions to improve their different locations and at the same time to train and sensitize those who are slow to adopt this good practice management of natural resources such as trees.

### P-3341-05

## Women's Adaptive Innovations in Land and Water Management under Climate Change in Himalaya: An Illustration of Gender Mainstreaming in Climate Change Adaptation in Marginalized Mountain Environment

B. Joshi (1)

(1) Government Post Graduate College, Geography, Rudrapur, Uttarakhand, India

In Himalaya, constraints of terrain and climate impose severe limitations on carrying capacity of natural system, productivity of resources as well as on efficiency of infrastructure and services. As a result, subsistence agriculture constitutes main source of rural livelihood for more than 75% population even though the availability of arable is severely limited and agricultural productivity is low. Owing to the constraints of subsistence agriculture economy and lack of other viable means of rural livelihood, a large proportion of youth male population out-migrates the region in search of livelihood and employment. Consequently, women have become 'primary resource developers' and 'backbone of mountain agricultural economy', and this resulted in feminization of agriculture and process of natural resource development in Himalaya. During recent years, a variety of changes have emerged in traditional agro-ecosystem in response to population growth, rapid urbanization and economic globalization resulting into depletion of natural resource base and land use intensifications. Moreover, climate change has stressed traditional agricultural-system through rise in temperature, changes in precipitation pattern and increased frequency of extreme weather events increasing vulnerability of large population, particularly the poor and marginalized to food and livelihood insecurity. Women, experience these changes differently and disproportionately respond to them in varying manner because of socially constructed gender relations. However, feminization of agriculture facilitated women to develop critical knowledge in agricultural resources management and adaptation of their livelihood and food system to climate change.

The paper aims at analyzing innovative adaptation mechanism evolved by indigenous women to climate
change and assessing its impact on their role in decision-making and empowerment in agricultural resources and assets and reducing gender gap with case illustration of Kumaon Himalaya in India. The study employed comprehensive socio-economic investigation techniques and empirical field observations methods, and surveyed 2197 households in 62 villages using exclusively framed schedules. Results indicated mountain women make use of their critical traditional knowledge and experience in land and water management and adapting their agricultural and food systems to climate change. It was observed that: (i) women in 27% villages replenished water sources employing traditional water conservation practices; (ii) 19% women changed cropping pattern, (iii) women in 25% villages developed indigenous rainwater harvesting system; (iv) 21% women adjusted crop-rotation; and (v) 27% women relocated agriculture; (vi) 55% women taking all decisions related with management of land and water resources; and (vii) 37% women are now solely responsible for utilization, processing and marketing of their agricultural products. It was observed that women's innovative adaptation measures are not only building climate change resilience in subsistence mountain farming system, but reducing gender gap by providing women with the opportunity to come closer to mainstream of sustainable development through increased participation and decision-making in natural resource management. Improved opportunities for mountain livelihood and opening access to market for their farm products. However, the knowledge and skills of mountain women; and their contributions towards climate change adaptation through sustainable resources development, household well-being, community sustainability need to acknowledged and valued, and be integrated into climate change adaptation policy planning all across the Himalayan mountains.

## P-3341-06

# Unraveling the gendered effects of climate change related policies in climate smart agriculture in Uganda and Tanzania

### AF. Mariola (1)

(1) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Kampala, Uganda

Achieving long-term gender-sensitive climate change adaptation at local and national level requires supportive climate policy framework, especially in vulnerable and food insecure countries such as Tanzania and Uganda. Intertwined with the multiple climate change related regulatory frameworks and action is the recognition and examination of the differentiated needs, constraints and preferences that men, women and different socio-economic and cultural groups have in a changing climate. However, the way gender is understood and articulated in climate change discourses will influence and shape how gender issues are dealt with in policies and interventions. Discourses on gender and climate change will determine which lenses are being used to study vulnerability and adaptability to climate change and consequently shape what are the perceived problems and potential solution. Differing gender considerations in policy and programs might subsequently ameliorate, perpetuate or exacerbate pre-existing social inequalities. Taking a poststructuralist reflexive approach to narrative policy analysis, this study unfolds different understandings of gender issues in climate change, adaptation policies in agriculture and analyzing the effects of gender discourses in climate-smart development projects in rural communities of Uganda and Tanzania. The study answers the research question: What does gender-sensitivity policy implementation mean to the vanagradicated actors and groups in the context of climate-smart agriculture in Uganda and Tanzania and what are the effects of the prevailing meanings?

Methods are directed to identify emergent gender discourses in climate change adaptation policies in agriculture and to analyze the effects that these discourses have in the implementation of climate adaptation policies in rural communities of Uganda and Tanzania. Throughout the research, narratives are taken as a central object of study by focusing on the diverse ways in which people make sense of their lived experiences. This research examines both narratives originated in non-structured interviews and in more informal accounts such as ordinary conversational exchanges. For the latter, narrative research is combined with observational data and ethnographic methods of data collection. The research is embedded within the Policy Action for Climate Change Adaptation

(PACACC) project led by the International Institute of Tropical Institute and funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

## P-3341-07

# The role of gender in improving adaptation to climate change among small-scale fishers

### L. Musinguzi (1) ; N. Vianny (1) ; R. Ogutu-Ohwayo (2)

(1) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), Fish habitat Management, Jinja, Uganda; (2) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), Jinja, Uganda

Climate change, which has intensified during the last three decades of the 20th century, disproportionately affects marginalized groups in developing countries, especially women. To guide integration of gender roles in interventions to improve adaptation to impacts of climate change, gender roles were examined in a community of fishers on Lake Wamala in Uganda, which has been increasingly affected by climate change and is a designated environmental change hotspot. Data was obtained from a lake wide frame survey and qualitative surveys using daily activity analysis and benefit analysis flow chart tools, modified from Socio-Economic and Gender Analysis Approach (FAO, 2001). There was lower participation of women than men in fishing activities, with 99% of fishers and 92.9% fish processors and traders being men. The men had more fishing experience, started fishing a younger age and exited at a later age, targeted more species, used more fishing gears and bought more fish for processing and trading. Although there was observed diversification to non-fishery livelihoods, such as crop and livestock production to increase food security and income among others, income from these activities was not controlled or shared equally between men and women. Compared to men, women worked longer hours, engaging in more simultaneous activities both in and out of the home and reported less time resting. Most of the income generated and controlled by women was used directly to meet household needs, suggesting that adaptations adopted by women have greater potential to build resilience to the influence of climate change. Drawing from these observations, the implications of the differences between men and women for adaptation, what men and women can do best to enhance adaptation and how some adaptation practices and interventions can be implemented to benefit both men and women are presented.

## P-3341-08

# Engendering climate smart agricultural Innovations in East Africa

### M. Nyasimi (1) ; R. Aura (2) ; M. Phiri (3) ; C. Mungai (1)

(1) Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, East Africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Egerton University, Faculty of law, Nakuru, Kenya; (3) COMESA, Climate change, Lusaka, Zambia

Gender differences amongst African societies persist particularly in social, cultural and economic roles and responsibilities, access to information and agricultural inputs. Long-term climate change in Africa will have an impact on food security and incomes, and this is likely to have ramifications for gender relations. Studies have shown that gender in conjunction with other factors such as age, wealth, religion and class determines the ways in which the changing climate is experienced. This is because extreme weather events and climate related disasters in juxtaposition with socio-economic, institutional, cultural and political factors tend to intensify existing gender inequalities and responses to climate change in the agriculture sector. In East Africa women make up a large number of the poor in communities that are highly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood and are disproportionately vulnerable to and affected by climate change. Their limited access to resources and decision-making processes further exacerbates their vulnerability to climate change.

Against this backdrop, a study was conducted in East Africa with the aim of contributing new knowledge on how men and women adjust their livelihoods and coping strategies at individual, household and village level
in response to climate risks. Using integrative gender
spreading tools and methods, a qualitative and quantitative
research study was carried out. The objectives of the
study were a) to characterize gendered climate risks over
the past five decades, b) to identify the coping strategies
that men and women farmers utilize in order to ensure a
measure of food security in response to climate variability,
c) to understand the resources available to men and
women and the decision making processes utilized, and
d) to identify the institutions that support women and men's
decision making with regard to climate, agriculture and
food security.

Two hundred farmers, half of whom are women were interviewed and 5 focus group discussions held. Research findings show that women perform 65% of off-farm work during drought because only a few of them have property rights (25%) and hence cannot sell or trade any household goods to fill in the food shortage gaps. In terms of perceived changes in weather-related shocks over the last fifty years, more women than men report having observed floods, erratic rainfall and droughts.

The study shows that both genders are adapting to
changing climate, and their changes are seasonal rather
than transformational. 64% of men and 57% of women
reported to have made changes in their agricultural,
livestock or livelihood practices in response to the climate
risks. Most women reported that they ration foods and
just a few of them reported constructing water pans to
store runoff and for use during drier periods, selling
baskets and ropes, altering crop varieties and planting
dates. However, this is done after seeking consent from
the heads of households. Without the power to decide
or sample, women in this region, climate risks
for example, by diversifying crops and livestock, altering
planting dates is limited. In terms of accessing weather
forecast and agro-advisory services 80% of men and
40% of women report having access to information on
seasonal weather forecasts, inputs supplies and extension
services. Women's inability to access new knowledge
makes them more vulnerable to climate impacts than men
and therefore, gender transformative activities including
empowerment might be one approach to adaption.

In the interest of gender equity and climate change
adaption efficiency and resilience, these barriers must be
allleviated or removed. Policy, strategies and investment
responses at local and national levels must meet the
specific needs of women and men. The methodology
developed through this study as well as the research
findings be applied to policy and decision makers
to develop Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPs) and
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) at County and National
levels, respectively in a pragmatic manner.

P-3341-09

Adaptation and resilience of farming
households to climate change using their
indigenous knowledge: A study of the
Niger Delta region

CD. Onyige (1)

(1) University of Port Harcourt, Sociology, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The Niger Delta region in Nigeria is home to over 30
million people (Nigerian Population Commission, 2009),
the bulk of which live in the rural areas. This region is
characterized by immense poverty, and has suffered from a
long history of socio-economic neglect and environmental
degradation such as oil pollution caused by the multi-
national companies dominating the rural communities
in the Niger Delta region. Thus the paradox of the Niger
Delta is that of a region rich in natural resource but with
significant percentage of its population living below the
poverty line. Apart from the problem of environmental
degradation caused by oil exploration in the region, the
people have to contend also with the recurring problem
of climate variability and climate change. The impact of
climate change increases livelihood vulnerability of the
rural farming households in this region. Climate change
makes access to food sources unpredictable and increases
poverty and disease. Women bear the brunt of all these
and the resulting impacts of climate change affects them
disproportionately. Women in this region constitute the
most vulnerable group since they have limited access
to land, which is a crucial determinant of their access
profile. Climate change according to the United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP, 2005) magnifies already
existing inequalities, especially gender inequality. When
confronted with the problems associated with climate
change, the people of the region respond to this situation
by developing coping strategies, on an individual and
on a collective level. How the rural people respond to
and adapt to the changes in their livelihood base using
their indigenous knowledge are some of the questions
my research intends to answer. Specifically the study
demonstrates how women and men's decision making
and marginalized group adapt and respond to climate change
using their indigenous knowledge, in spite of the obvious
gender inequality pervasive in the society.

P-3341-10

How Climate induced male migration criti-
cally affects women left behind?

MG. Rabbani 0 ; ZM. Khan (1)

(1) Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Cyclones, floods and droughts have been on the rise in both
intensity and frequency over the last decades, leaving the
citizen with few or no options to earn an adequate living
to sustain themselves and their families in Bangladesh.
As a direct result, migration has been increasing, with
large numbers of people, mostly men, travelling to other
regions in search of a better life and livelihood. The female
population in areas of Bangladesh not only have to cope
with the increasing effects of climatic change and natural
disasters, but also the increasing patterns of migration
of male family members. Most often women stay behind,
usually with children and other members of the family, and
take care of the household and try to make ends meet.
This paper is based on a study conducted in 40 villages
of 10 out of 64 districts in Bangladesh with support from UN
Women and Norad.

The main objective of the study was to explore how
climate induced migration of male members affect the
women left behind. The study interviewed 40 local women
(four women from each location—two local government
representatives and two community representatives) from
the climate vulnerable districts. The women were selected
from the households from which at least one male member
migrated mainly because of climate-induced hazards
e.g. cyclone, increased tidal surge, salinity intrusion in
surface water and soil, drought, water logging caused
by tidal surge and saline rainfall. The study interviewed
Tidal Group Discussions were conducted to meet the objective
of the study. The secondary literature were collected and
reviewed to determine tools and complement and verify
the study findings.

The study denotes that migration of a male member
from a family has various social, economic and mental
impacts. The female members are children of vuln. family
left behind family members feel insecure and face many
problems including decision-making. The workloads
on the female members also increase accordingly. The
adaptive capacities of individuals greatly depend on
income, education, health and access to natural resources.
Scarcity of food can worsen a woman's nutritional status
due to her marginalization within a household. Also, as
women are mainly responsible for gathering water for the
household, paucity of water might increase the burden on
one woman. The impact on women is likely to be worse
in developing countries like Bangladesh because of the
deeper economic and social gender divide. It was found
that women, mostly living alone with children and other
female members and in-laws face adversity on a day-
to-day basis. In most cases it was found that the male
members were unable or in cases simply unwilling to
send money back to their households, leaving the women
to find any means of survival during these periods of
migration. In some situations, women were being looked
down upon by the other members of their society due to
the absence of their male family members, some reported
harassment and assault. In some regions, women living
without their male family member have become targets
and thieves are targeting their households. Still existing
social norms and practices across the country lead to
the discrimination of women and their rights, which are only
exacerbated during times of male migration. On top of
unpaid care work such as fetching water, cooking and
taking care of children, women who can find employment
often have unstable income with some women reporting
an increase in physical, emotional and mental stresses.
Moreover, women eat less and work more, either because
they cannot earn enough, or because of social norms and practices that dictate women must to feed their families first. With a lack of social support mechanisms and adequate policy environment to protect women's rights, the process of male migration due to climate change may in fact contribute to a worsening situation for gender inequality.

Yet, in spite of the negative impacts of migration in most cases, if not all, migration can help families to stay afloat, and in even improve overall financial conditions. Thus, in a disaster struck country like Bangladesh, migration can be a negative and positive approach to dealing with climate change.

P-3341-11

## Gender Justice and Sustainability in REDD/ REDD+ Climate Change Projects in Indonesia and the Philippines

E. Wornell (1); A. Tickamyer (2) ; S. Kusujiarti, (3)

(1) The Pennsylvania State University, Rural Sociology and Demography, Pennsylvania, United States of America; (2) Penn State University, Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, University Park, PA, United States of America; (3) Warren Wilson College, Sociology, North Carolina, United States of America

Women's empowerment and indigenous rights have been widely embraced as foundational principles of international social and economic development for several decades in recognition of the transformational potential for achieving interwoven goals of human rights and sustainable development. Programs to address climate change are no exception, and the growing urgency of finding means to mitigate its impacts, and to rationally frame finding effective ways to fully incorporate women and other marginalized groups into these efforts. A growing body of literature documents the importance of gender justice to this effort, yet achieving it often remains illusive. A prime example is found in REDD/REDD+ projects, the United Nations collaborative program for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. As a key initiative for preserving forest resources and associated ecosystem services, it is equally important for goals of sustainability,

gender equity, and empowerment of marginalized groups.

According to the UN, REDD+ is an effort to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. 'REDD+' goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation, and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (http://www.un-redd.org/aboutredd/tabid/102614/ default.aspx, accessed May 25, 2014). These projects have been initiated in a variety of countries and regions with significant forest resources and forest resource loss, and different levels of economic development. The goal of REDD/REDD+ is to encourage developing countries to conserve and maintain their forest resources by making standing forests more profitable than felled forests. In addition to creating an economic incentive for the development of REDD+, REDD+ was envisioned as catalyst for addressing social issues facing these countries, including poverty and inequality. In theory, REDD/REDD+ projects must both comply with gender mainstreaming practices and benefit indigenous communities. A major criticism of REDD/REDD+ is that, as a neoliberal policy that prioritizes economic growth, the principles of gender mainstreaming and community inclusion remain lofty policy ideals rather than on-the-ground reality. Due to limited capacity for monitoring and evaluating projects, as well as on-going corruption and mismanagement, the fear of critics of REDD/REDD+ is that disempowered groups, including women and indigenous communities, will be further marginalized through the implementation of REDD/REDD+, despite stated policies to the contrary.

This paper is based on the comparative research on challenges and progress toward effective gender equity and mainstreaming as well as involvement of indigenous communities in REDD+ sites in Indonesia and the Philippines. We focus on these two countries because of the similarities in the level of economic development and the characteristics of the ongoing REDD/REDD+ projects. We interviewed scholars, community members, policy analysts, and activists who have been involved in designing, and the leveraged level important actions relating to building the robustness of proposed adaptation strategies at various levels, and construct alternative adaptation pathways.

# 3342 - Developing Capacity through Low Carbon Initiatives, Climate Adaptation and Increased Resilience to Climate Impacts in the Asia-Pacific Region

## 3342-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3342-01

#### Adaptation pathways for inland aquaculture in northern Thailand

L. Lebel (1)

(1) Chiang Mai University, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Background: Aquaculture systems are likely to be impacted by changes in climate; not all impacts are expected to be negative, and in some situations aquaculture may become an alternative to land-based agriculture. Most aquaculture systems, however, are vulnerable to water scarcity, and their interactive effects on water quality, as well as extreme floods, storm surges and sea-level rise. Inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand is important for livelihoods and a significant economic activity that is sensitive to climate variability and water management. Aquaculture production for commercial purposes, as well as direct consumption, takes place in earthen ponds, and in cages in rivers and reservoirs. Adaptation pathways with inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand are needed which allow reasonable actions to be taken now, for instance, to strengthen management of climate-related risks, while also leaving flexibility in households, and the sector as a whole, for adjustment of strategies in the future.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on the findings of the AQUADAPT research and assessment process to: (1) identify the key sensitivities of inland aquaculture systems to climate-related risks; (2) assess farm household efforts to manage those risks under current climate variability; and (3) apply this understanding to identify strategies for building the resilience of aquaculture social-ecological systems, and in developing plausible, context-specific, adaptation pathways for aquaculture in northern Thailand.

Methods: Combination of new research, review of past work, expert synthesis and participatory, local assessments, was used. Four qualitative climate change scenarios - wetter, drier, more seasonal, and less seasonal - were constructed, based on a set of downscaled climate projections for 2040-2059, to capture key uncertainties in future climate in northern Thailand. Scenarios were also developed for water and fish demand to complement the four for climate yielding a total of 16 combinations or final scenarios. These 16 scenarios were used to explore the robustness of proposed adaptation strategies at various levels, and construct alternative adaptation pathways.

Results: Adaptation measures or strategies are being pursued, or have been proposed, at the farm (household), watershed (community) and sector (national) levels. At farm level the focus is on rearing practices and business management. And the leveraged level important actions relate to sharing of warning information, and the formation of fish farmer's groups to influence water resources management. At the sector level insurance, voluntary standards, and investments in research and development
are frequently recommended. Examples of measures emphasizing the management of specific climate risks, as well as broader strategies for building resilience of the aquaculture social-ecological system, were found at each level. The emerging adaptation pathways for aquaculture include some contradictory elements reflecting uncertainties about effectiveness, differences in development ideologies and expectations for the sector. Either way, it is clear that adaptation strategies need to be integrated with other efforts to improve sustainability, for instance encouraging best practices in disease management, waste water treatment and disposal

**Significance:** Identifying adaptation pathways for aquaculture in northern Thailand, in particular, and in the tropics or subtropics, more broadly, seems plausible as key species can be reared in a broad range of systems in the warm waters and the sector has significant capacity for self-organization and innovation. At the same time there are widespread concerns about the availability of suitable quality water for production in the future, underlining the importance of sustainability of water use and aquaculture practices to adaptation. Public sector support for building climate resilience of aquaculture industry in northern Thailand should: (1) strengthen the knowledge foundations for adaptation; (2) support improvements in the management of climate-related risks under current climate variability; (3) improve water and watershed management; and, (4) acknowledge in policy and planning that adaptation will need to be context specific.

P-3342-02

## Coastal hazards and climate change in the Loyalty Islands (south-west Pacific), multi-disciplinary approach

M. Le Duff (1); M. Allenbach (2); P. Dumas, (1); O. Cohn, (1); T. Hoibian, (3)

(1) University of new caledonia, Cnpn, Noumea, New Caledonia; (2) University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia; (3) University of new caledonia, Ppme, Noumea, New Caledonia

This communication presents the objectives and preliminary results of a study concerning the evolution of atoll's coastlines with climate changes and their social involvement. This work is carried out in the southwest Pacific and is funded by the Government of New Caledonia, the European Union (Program INTEGRE) and the French Ministry of overseas territories (Program MOM). In order to provide some guidelines for the Ouvea (Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia) stakeholders involved in atoll's risk management and dual methodological approach is undertaken to understand the impact of the relationships between social and physical processes associated to coastal evolution of atolls with climate changes.

Concerning the physical process, the geophysical vulnerabilities of islands are first studied in relatively large spatial and temporal scales, using diachronic analysis of aerial and satellite imagery of Ouvea Island over the last 60 years. At the same time, a monitoring of current coastal sediment dynamics is realized on the sandy shores of the Island. A continuing survey over two years is planned on the main beaches of the Island, which strongly suffer from erosion processes. The goal of this survey is to obtain in-situ data concerning the impacts of rapidly evolving phenomena such as cyclones, tsunamis, tornadoes, or blows. As an example, we will present a quantified analysis of the impact on the northern part of Ouvea Island after the passage of the cyclone PAM (Category 5, 894 mbar, mid-March 2015) that hits the Vanuatu archipelago, which is close to Loyalty Islands. The topoi measurements are performed through two approaches: (1) various specific and expensive methods (DGPS, Photo restitution from aerial surveys by UAV) and (2) less sophisticated methods (up to the frame, site level) less precise but more expensive than the in-situ requiring specific technical skills, allowing the involvement of local people. In a Pacific area bereft of resources, the purpose is to provide methods to survey environmental phenomena affecting small isolated islands. The aim of this approach is to initiate a participatory monitoring program of the coastline. Training observers throughout this project, coupled with the creation of wide information campaigns / awareness raising and maintaining a strong link with the local administrative structures and tribal representatives are essential for long term success in Oceania. This

approach is particularly vital for these islands, where the land planning and management is almost exclusively under tribal authorities. Therefore, it is essential to involve people in the implementation of these strategies. The recognition of tribal law in New Caledonia prohibits any top-down or bottom-up process in management.

Another aspect of the method is the creation of a quantitative and qualitative database of external events such as cyclones and tornadoes, based on the processing of historical archives. The aim is to better understand the current evolutions of the region from the perspective of the dynamics of the hazard (time, power, path ...) by providing additional analysis of documents and data, now available to the Caledonian Weather Service. Moreover, we will address vulnerability issues (human, environmental, economic) and capacity and / or resilience strategy developed in societies studied for over 150 years. Mastering these issues related to the past and present social and climate change will help to better understand the abilities of atoll's stakeholders in terms of adaptation and limitations to which these strategies will be faced by the end of the century. A database of more than 285 extreme weather events that impacted the New Caledonia since 1830 has been established and is being analyzed. The case study of the tsunami of March 28th 1875 to determine the exact impact of this major event on the Loyalty coastlines will be presented.

In conclusion, we point out the importance of developing integrated, holistic approach of coastal dynamics, both from physical and socio-cultural perspectives, and so to provide the best adaptation strategy regarding the evolution of atoll's coastlines with climate changes.

P-3342-03

## Balancing Consumers' Satisfaction with Water Quality and Reducing Energy Use: A Case Study in Japan

V. Shinde (1); N. Hirayama (2); S. Itoh (3)

(1) Asian Institute of Technology, Water Engineering and Management, Bangkok, Thailand; (2) National Institute of Environmental Studies, Centre for materials cycle and waste management, Tsukuba University, Kyoto University, Environmental engineering department, Kyoto, Japan

Japan ranks fifth among the countries that produce the highest Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions (UNFCC, 2012). In light of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the country has revised its GHG reduction targets to 3.5% in 2020 from 2005 levels. The Fukushima disaster led to the destruction of power plants leading to rise in the use of fossil fuels, which makes this reduced target also look daunting. Although the water supply sector in Japan accounts for less than 1% of the total emissions, it is important for this sector to reduce energy use since it is only through collective contributions of all sectors that the GHG reduction vision can be achieved.

Japan has a well-developed water supply system and over the years, there has been a systematic progress in the nature and type of water treatment. However, in recent years the consumers' expectations of water quality in Japan have been on the rise. A survey conducted in Osaka by the authors in 2007 revealed an increase in the number of complaints with regard to water quality in the last decade, suggesting a decline in Consumers' Satisfaction with Water Quality (CSWQ). CSWQ can be improved with advanced water treatment like membrane filtration, ion exchange etc., but the energy requirement for such processes is high. Hence, it is difficult for the utilities to meet the GHG emission reduction targets as well as maintain/improve CSWQ. There is a need to arrive at an optimal balance between the two, which is the objective of this study.

The rationale behind the study's methodology is to link the energy source with CSWQ so that when scenarios of reduction in energy use are considered, corresponding changes in the CSWQ can be observed. Data required for this study was procured from Kobe City Waterworks Authority (KCWA), Japan. The study involved three distinct stages:

(a) Evaluating CSWQ: An internet based questionnaire survey was used to assess the CSWQ, in which respondents were asked to evaluate eight items. Factor Analysis was then performed to quantify CSWQ, as presented in
Equation 1.

$$ \text{CSWQ} = (0.347 \times \text{Trust in water utility}) + (0.313 \times \text{Good quality water}) + (0.197 \times \text{R&D in water utility}) + (0.162 \times \text{Equity of distribution}) + (0.144 \times \text{Price of water}) \quad (1) $$

(b) Developing a mathematical model to link CSWQ with energy use: To do so, a two-step procedure was followed. In the first step, ten services areas were chosen from where maximum questionnaire responses were received, and the CSWQ for each area was calculated using Equation 1. After this, for the same service areas the magnitudes of selected Performance Indicators (PIs, developed in our earlier study) of Green water supply delivery— Financial Sustainability (FS), Green Water Supply (GWS) and Economic Value of Water (EV)—were evaluated. The relationship between the CSWQ and the PIs was then established using multiple linear regression, (Eqn 2).

$$ \text{CSWQ} = 2.083 - 0.004 \text{ FS} - 0.001 \text{ GWS} + 0.001 \text{ EV} \quad (2) $$

In the second step, relationships of the PIs with energy use were established. To do so, a series of models were developed. For KCWA, the main source of GHG emissions is due to energy use (power), hence, the first model, Model 1, was developed to relate the GHG emissions with Power Consumption (PC), using appropriate emission factors. A second model was developed to relate PC and water production volume (eqn 3), and water production volume was linked to the three PIs through models 3, 4 and 5 (Eq 4, 5, and 6).

Model 2: Water production volume = $1.75 + 2.68 \times 10^{-3}$ Power Consumption \quad (3)

Model 3: Financial Sustainability = $2.07 - 5.34 \times 10^{-3}$ Water production volume \quad (4)

Model 4: Green Water Supply = $4.78 - 0.14$ Water production volume \quad (5)

Model 5: Economic Value of Water = $17.06 + 0.41$ Water production volume \quad (6)

(c) Balancing CSWQ and reduction in energy use: In order to do so, five scenarios of reduction in GHG emissions from the base condition (2010 level) were considered: 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25%. On one hand, the reduction in PC required for each scenario was calculated. On the other, the CSWQ for each scenario was calculated using Equation 2, with the corresponding values of the three PIs (using models 1 and 2 consecutively). The optimal GHG reduction is found by equating the two trends. The study revealed that the KCWA can target only 3.5% GHG reduction for balancing CSWQ and reducing energy use.

P-3342-04

Fugitive methane emissions from Indian coal mining and handling activities: Estimates and opportunities for its utilization to generate clean energy

AK. Singh (1); J. Kumar (1); A. Garg (2)

(1) CSIR-Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, Methane Emission and Degasification Division, Dhanab, Jharkhand, India; (2) Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Public systems group, Ahmedabad, India

Fugitive methane emissions from coal mining and handling activities are a prominent source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from India. The total GHG emissions from India's energy sector were around 1.4 million Gg-CO2 equivalent in 2007, out of which ~34,000 Gg-CO2 equivalent belonged to fugitive emissions from fuel extraction [1]. The fugitive emission estimates calculated mainly by using India-specific emission factors developed by CIMFR suggest that Methane emitted annually to the atmosphere from Indian coal mining and handling systems has gone from 0.555 Tg for the year 1991 to 0.772 Tg in the year 2010.

The Integrated Energy Policy of the Government of India projects that coal consumption in India shall grow at the rate of 6 per cent per year. The current production is projected to touch 630 million ton in 2015 and around a billion ton by 2020. Taking the future projections of coal production and consumption, we also project the future trend of methane emissions from coal mining and

handling activities of India.

The methane generated from coal mining and also as coalbed methane has the potential to serve as a clean fuel. There are several opportunities for this methane to play its part in the meeting of sustainable energy demands in India. This is more so relevant with the Indian government showing signs of encouraging clean coal technologies (CCTs). There are several mechanisms for this in the Indian context includes:

1. Coal Mine Methane (CMM): We completed a project recently funded by the US EPA for feasibility of CMM in three major coalfields in eastern India, viz. Jharia, Bokaro and Raniganj coalfields. At first glance, it appears that Kalidaspach and Ghusick collieries in the Raniganj Coalfield, Murulidih, Amlabad, Sudamdih and Parbatpur mines in the Jharia Coalfield and Jaragndih and Sawalcollieries in the East Bokaro Coalfield are promising sites for CMM recovery. The measurements and potential for CMM in these mines shall be talked about in details in this paper.

2. Ventilation Air Methane (VAM): CIMFR, along with Southern Illinois University at Carbondale completed a joint project on VAM utilization in India. We have made some assumptions with the ($\frac{1}{2}$) $\times 10$ model, wherein it is assumed that fifty per cent of the CMM resource within a mine boundary can be exploited in 10 progressive years. Our calculations suggest that installation of just two rotary kilns, revenue of US$ 2.8 million can be generated in 2000. The details about VAM opportunities shall be covered in detail.

3. Abandoned Mine Methane (AMM): There has not been any effort to identify the abandoned mines and quantify the AMM resource in India. It is thus, imperative to undertake a study to evaluate the AMM resource potential of the country before any utilization potential is planned.

4. Coalbed methane (CBM): An estimated potential of 400 BCM of coalbed methane exists in three states alone (Jharkhand, West Bengal and Chhatishgarh). Efforts are already underway for exploitation of CBM in India [2].

Such mechanisms, if employed shall serve as a useful tool to reduce atmospheric emissions as well as to find new avenues of cleaner energy in India. This is even more important because India is naturally devoid of high natural gas reserves and such methods can help in bridging the gap for this.

It is hoped that this paper shall present a useful analysis for policy makers and the industry to get an overview of the scientific status for clean energy in India through methane emissions from coal mines.

References:

[1] Sharma SK et al (2011), Curr Sci, 101, 405-415.

[2] Garg A et al (2004), Atmos Environ, 38, 1965-1977.

P-3342-05

Linking Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia and the Pacific

LA. Stevenson (1)

(1) Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), APN Secretariat, Kobe, Japan

Climate change adaptation is receiving increased attention, particularly among developing countries. As part of the work under the Cancun Adaptation Framework, UNFCCC Parties established the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss & Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts at COP19 to consider approaches to address loss & damage associated with extreme and slow-onset events, particularly for countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Under its Climate Adaptation Framework, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research is addressing adaptation through approaches that support research, data collection, enhanced coordination, enhanced regional cooperation and strengthened institutional arrangements. Specifically, the APN launched a special focussed activity that aims to link climate change adaptation (CCA) with disaster risk reduction (DRR) and loss & damage (L&D). A series of projects are underway that are addressing such
issues as the risk of slow onset events, economic and non-economic L&D, CCI on most vulnerable, approaches to slow onset and extreme weather events, integrating slow onset and extreme events into climate resilient development processes, and how climate change is affecting patterns of mitigation, displacement and human mobility.

The presentation will provide an overview of how APN's Climate Adaptation Framework is responding to climate change challenges by providing a flavour of the fifteen projects currently underway in the Asia-Pacific region, all of which are undertaking regional-based research activities and/or capacity building with specific foci on linking CCI, DRR and L&D. The session will then go into more detail by providing information and important outputs to date from projects being conducted in South and Southeast Asia.

Topics covered will include:

(1) major low-lying coastal cities Southeast Asia that are severley impacted by severe flood events and how sectors, such as agriculture, in these areas will face increased challenges as impacts of extreme events are projected to worsen;

(2) solutions-oriented research outputs of how best to integrate climate change adaptation with disaster risk, particularly for slow onset events; and

(3) work being undertaken to address the important need to integrate adaptation to climate change into development planning in policy- and decision-making communities.
# 4401 - Sustainable development goals and the new climate regime: synergies for change ?

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-4401-01

#### Sustainable Development Goals, Science and Politics

**C. Körösi, (1)**

(1) Office of the President of the Republic of Hungary. State secretary, director for environmental sustainability, Budapest, Hungary

Based on his experience as co-chair of the Open Working Group (OWG) on Sustainable development goals (SDG), Mr C. Körösi will be talking about the lessons for the SDGs learnt from the OWG negotiation process, especially focusing on science policy interface. This will include his personal reflection of the OWG process in terms of science and policy, and personal views on how science could contribute to the post-2015 development agenda and their implementation process.

### O-4401-01

#### Governance through Goals: Options and Opportunities for the SDGs

**N. Kanie, (1)**

(1) Keio University, Professor, graduate school of media and governance, Tokyo, Japan

Two unanticipated consequences in formulation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from the outcome of Rio+20 are of great importance for governance for sustainability: that the SDGs would link sustainable development to the continuation and strengthening of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in a single agenda at the centre of a post-2015 development framework; and that their negotiation would entrench "goal-setting" as a dominant strategy in global governance. This single, goal-oriented agenda, is not simply a continuation of unfinished elements of the MDGs, but it aspires to build from their central mission of poverty eradication and social inclusion a universal, integrated agenda that also responds to growing social and planetary complexity in the twenty-first century. While the very notion of negotiating a set of SDGs is remarkable in its own right, they mark an equally significant shift in global governance strategy: from norm promotion and rule-making to goal-setting.

### O-4401-02

#### Allocation of resources to LDCs for adaptation - A climate vulnerability index

**P. Guillaumont (1)**

(1) FERDI - Université d'Auvergne, Clermont Ferrand, France

An amount of resources, still to be determined, will be made available for the adaptation to climate change in developing countries, in particular to Least Developed Countries. Since these countries are not responsible for the global impact of climate change, it seems equitable to allocate concessional resources mainly according to their vulnerability to climate change (beside their low level of income per capita). For doing that we suggest to use a physical index of vulnerability to climate change reflecting the likely shocks resulting from climate change and faced by each country independently of its will, what means an index not taking into account any policy factor of resilience. Such an index has been built on an exploratory basis at Ferdi with this aim in view. Complementarity and consistency with the allocation of development assistance models using income per capita, structural economic vulnerability and governance indicators as criteria will be also underlined.

### O-4401-03

#### A poverty - adaptation -mitigation window within the Green Climate Fund

**S. Mathy (1) ; O. Blanchard (1)**

(1) PACTE, EDDEN, Grenoble, France

The stakes for poverty alleviation and the measures required to avoid unbridled climate change are inextricably linked: on the one hand, climate change may slow down and even reverse trends in poverty reduction; on the other hand trajectories consistent with a 2°C - temperature increase require poverty alleviation strategies to integrate the constraint of a low carbon development.

Existing climate funds have failed to target poverty alleviation as a high priority of adaptation strategies

It is important to distinguish adaptation actions that are purely aimed at adapting to impacts of climate change and would not otherwise be initiated, from broader adaptation needs and development-related actions to reduce climate change vulnerability, i.e. actions to reduce the adaptation gap. The existing project-based approach of the Adaptation Fund is more adequate to deal with the first category of adaptation actions, while it is likely that poorer regions and communities need to look more specifically to the adaptation deficit. How can a single financial instrument address both in an optimal manner? So far, all attempts to create aggregated vulnerability indicators relying on a single number have revealed unsatisfactory to determine where available funding should be used in priority, as these indicators lead to contradictory results and often depend on value judgments on which there is no consensus.

Allocation of climate funds focusing on development-related actions to reduce climate change vulnerability requires defining a set of indicators that reflect factors of poverty.

Existing climate funds and the CDM have failed to target poverty alleviation as a necessary component of a low carbon development

Existing climate funds and the CDM have mainly allocated resources to high-emitting developing countries, or to countries with a rapid growth in their GHG emissions. To maximize the environmental efficiency, climate funds and financial mechanisms favour projects or actions that maximize the quantity of emission reductions. Such indicators are not adequate with poor countries with no mitigation potential relative to a historic reference because the development deficit leads to low initial emission levels.

To favour low carbon development opportunities in poor countries, other indicators than emission reductions relative to a historic reference scenario should be used.

Description of the poverty-adaptation-mitigation window (PAM-W)

To go beyond these obstacles in targeting poverty alleviation as an adaptation strategy and as a component of a low carbon development, we propose to complement the existing adaptation and mitigation windows of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with a window focusing on synergies between poverty alleviation, adaptation and mitigation.

Actions funded within this window would either be sectoral programs or policies in order to be consistent with the GCF objective of paradigm shift.

A series of macro indicators that reflect factors of poverty would be used for the selection of beneficiaries.

The aid mechanism would be based on national or regional benchmarks reflecting the per capita cost for providing a specific basic need (the cost of providing access to sanitation to one additional person, the cost of providing access to electricity to an additional person).
Part of the funds allocated would be transferred based on the actual implementation of the action. The allocation metric would be the actual net changes in the number of people gaining access to the concerned basic need. Countries would be free to develop their own strategy, and they would have to finance it initially, from domestic resources, existing development aid channels or international private capital.

Given the huge financing needs to address GCF objectives, available financial resources for the PAM-W would be limited and financial modalities within the PAM-W would have to limit windfall profits and to vary according to income category of countries. Additional conditions could reinforce the appropriation of actions by countries: co-financing for low income countries, private financing for upper-middle income countries.

### O-4401-04

## SDGs as way to better mobilize funding for climate and for development ?

### D. Vencatachellum (1)

(1) African Development Bank, Director, resource mobilization and external finance department, Tunis, Tunisia

Based both on his expertise in development economics and on his experience as an economist within a multilateral development bank (the African Development Bank), Dr D. Vencatachellum will present his analysis of how SDGs could help better mobilizing funding for climate and for development, and will also react to the proposals made by other presenters in the panel.

### O-4401-05

## Raising the ambition: How the global climate agreement can affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

### N. Walmsley (1)

(1) HR Wallingford, Water Group, Wallingford, United Kingdom

N. Walmsley (HR Wallingford), A. Ansuategi (Metroeconomica), P. Gréno (Metroeconomica), V. Houlenden (HR Wallingford), A. Markandya (Metroeconomica), L. Onofri (Metroeconomica), G. Tsarouchi (HR Wallingford) and H. Picot (CDKN)

In the coming year, key decisions will be made on several intergovernmental agendas, including climate change, disaster risk reduction, sustainable development and financing for development. The impacts of climate change resulting from varying levels of ambition over long-term horizons (e.g. to 2050 and beyond) are a current focus of much global research effort. However, little is known about the projected impacts of the climate deal on development in the shorter term.

This paper seeks to fill a knowledge gap by investigating the development impacts projected for varying levels of climate ambition in the 2015 climate deal, as such a deal will necessarily impact on national decision making around resource allocation and development priorities. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are used as a lens through which to measure and frame the question: How can the global climate agreement affect development in the period to 2030? Using a combination desk study, integrated assessment modelling (IAM) and information from the literature, a subset of the 17 proposed SDGs are assessed according to the projected socio-economic outcomes of binary climate ambition scenarios.

Two scenarios are considered: a high ambition agreement (to limit global warming on pre-industrial levels to 2C by 2100) and a low ambition agreement (to limit global warming to 3-5C by 2100). These scenarios are represented by coupled representative concentration pathways (RCPS) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This allows both climate impacts and socioeconomic impacts of a high or low ambition 2015 climate deal to be considered, and the impact on national and regional development pathways to be investigated.

A broader regional scale assessment of Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is complemented

by deep dives into 3 case study countries/regions: Uganda, Pakistan and the Caribbean. This selection of climate vulnerable countries gives a representative coverage of a least developed country (LDC), a middle income country (MIC) and a small island developing state (SIDS), all of which are groups of countries with particular development challenges.

Our findings show:

* The decisions taken at UNFCCC COP21 in Paris will have a significant impact on global development by 2030, even before the resulting climate impacts are felt.

* A high ambition agreement that aims to minimise global warming to 2C by 2100 on pre-industrial temperatures is essential to have the best chance of achieving the SDGs by 2030.

* A high ambition agreement is most crucial to achieving the draft SDGs on poverty (SDG 1), inequality (SDG 10), climate change (SDG 13) and global partnerships for sustainable development (SDG 17).

* Country case studies were used to compare and contrast with the above high-level regional findings.

Negotiators and the development community should find the outputs of this research useful to advocate for a stronger climate deal, and to ensure that the SDGs deliver climate smart development in the poorest and most climate vulnerable countries.

## 4401-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-4401-01

## Bottom-up formation and stabilization of a grand climate coalition under rationality

### J. Heizig (1) ; U. Kornek (2) ; K. Lessmann (2)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Sustainable solutions, Potsdam, Germany

After the Copenhagen failure, recent negotiations have seen a shift from the Kyoto top-down agreement to the Durban bottom-up process of national pledges. Economic models had predicted that an effective (near-)global climate protection 'coalition' was likely 'unstable'. The public good character of emissions reductions, related positive externalities, and the resulting incentives for noncompliance and freeriding pose difficulties for achieving sufficient levels of international cooperation (Barrett 2005). Although the bottom-up approach may enhance negotiations, Lima has again shown the slow progress and the large uncertainties involved about the process. Formal analyses of the strategic interactions can shed light on the negotiators' behaviour, but often neglect the time-evolving ('dynamic') process inherent in negotiations.

In this talk, we present a dynamic and stochastic game-theoretic model of the process of coalition formation and its implications for the prospects and uncertainties of bottom-up climate coalition formation under the usual assumption of rationality. It includes these novel features: (i) Unlike most existing models, we assume that over time, the major GHG emitting nations can form, grow, merge, shrink, split, or terminate any number of coalitions. (ii) In proportion to bargaining power, players can repeatedly propose changes in the coalition structure, and a proposal will be accepted if it is profitable for the responsible players and not dominated by another move of the same or fewer players. (iii) When assessing profitability, players may farsightedly anticipate later moves to some degree. (iv) Uncertainty about who will propose next leads to unresolved uncertainty about the sequence of moves (the realised pathway), leading to a consistent scenario of different branching pathways and their probabilities. (v) Uncertainty about players' expectations may lead to the existence of several competing consistent scenarios, each of which represents a different (but common to all players) set of expectations.

Our main findings support the hopes that a bottom-up process may work eventually: (1) for each parameter
setting, there is typically more than one consistent scenario, but in all of them a stable global coalition will be formed eventually. (2) No formed coalition will be terminated later although the model explicitly allows unilateral termination of agreements. (3) Typically, there are several handful of competing pathways towards global cooperation, and they differ in the number of steps needed and in their allocation of mitigation costs. (4) This path uncertainty is largest in the early steps of the process, where typically (a) the most vulnerable nations and those with the lowest mitigation potential ("reluctant" players) exhibit chicken-game-like behaviour by trying to delay their own cooperation, in order to free-ride for as long as possible and to achieve a better bargaining position for their later entrance into an existing coalition, while (b) at the same time, the least vulnerable players and those with the highest mitigation potential ("eager" players) compete for forming a coalition with many reluctant players and few other eager players, in order to get a higher share of the vulnerable nations' gains from avoided climate change via surplus sharing and to get a higher compensation from them for their mitigation services. (5) Surprisingly, in our model these strategic interactions do however not lead to a stalemate without progress since such a stalemate would not form a consistent set of expectations. (6) Among the alternative consistent scenarios, there is typically one "focal" (Schelling 1960), relatively symmetric scenario in which no player has a considerable advantage, and several asymmetric scenarios in each of which one player is at an advantage.

To complete our strategic analysis, we finally present a strategy by which a coalition of rational players may incentivise compliance with their agreement to make the latter self-enforcing (Heitzig, Lessmann, Zou, PNAS 2011). It consists of a simple temporary redistribution of liabilities in proportion to preceding shortfalls and can be seen as a renegotiation-proof improvement of the Kyoto protocol's noncompliance rules.

## P-4401-02

### Building an Index of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change

C. Simonet (1) ; P. Guillaumont (2)

(1) Overseas Development Institute, Climate and Environment Program, London, France; (2) FERDI - Université d'Auvergne, Clermont Ferrand, France

The Index of Physical or Geophysical Vulnerability to Climate Change differs from the other indices on vulnerability to Climate Change by only considering

this part of the vulnerability which does not depend on the present policy. To this aim it relies only on physical components likely to reflect an impact of climate change, without any use of socioeconomic data. It is an index of physical vulnerability to climate change, changing only progressively and slowly.

It also differs from other vulnerability indices, both from the more general index of physical vulnerability indices, which most often include resilience and policy components, and from the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) used by the Committee for Development Policy for the identification of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The EVI is related only to physical vulnerability, as the present Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (PVCCI), but it differs from the latter: it covers all kinds of exogenous shocks likely to affect economic growth, it refers to a shorter term horizon and it tries to capture a handicap to economic growth rather than a risk of a change in geophysical conditions. Thanks to these features, the PVCCI, set up at the country level, could be used as a criterion for the geographical allocation of the international resources available for the adaptation to climate change. It is a relevant criterion precisely because it doesn't depend on the present policy, and it only gives an indication of the need for adaptation. By the same way the EVI has been proposed as a possible criterion for the allocation of development assistance. The design of the PVCCI draws both from the environmental literature and from the attempt to measure physical economic vulnerability, as it is done by the Economic Vulnerability Index. As an environmental index, the index relies on components reflecting the physical consequences of climate change that can directly affect population welfare and activity, rather than an assessment of their long term economic consequences. The index relies on eight components, considered as relevant, reliable, and available for the whole set of developing countries and easily understandable, so that the index can be used in a transparent manner. These eight components respectively capture the risks related to progressive or cumulative shocks due to climate change and the risks related to the intensification of recurrent shocks due to it.

The PVCCI has been calculated on the basis of data covering the last 60 years for 146 developing countries and territories. Results evidence a high heterogeneity among countries in the level of physical vulnerability to climate change and an important vulnerability of SIDS, even within a same regional area. The high physical vulnerability to climate change of the LDCs and SIDS is highlighted by the index. These groups of countries are already found to have aa high economic vulnerability, as evidenced by EVI.

## 4402a - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-4402a-01

Dr. Leon Clarke

L. Clarke (1)

(1) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Climate Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States of America

The long-term goal of limiting temperature change to less than 2C will require deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Net global CO2 emissions, in particular, must eventually be brought to or below zero to meet this or other long-term temperature goals. Emissions reductions of this magnitude will require large-scale transformations where typically (a) the most vulnerable nations and those with the lowest mitigation potential ("reluctant" players) exhibit chicken-game-like behaviour by trying to delay their own cooperation, in order to free-ride for as long as possible and to achieve a better bargaining position for their later entrance into an existing coalition, while (b) at the same time, the least vulnerable players and those with the highest mitigation potential ("eager" players) compete for forming a coalition with many reluctant players and few other eager players, in order to get a higher share of the vulnerable nations' gains from avoided climate change via surplus sharing and to get a higher compensation from them for their mitigation services. (5) Surprisingly, in our model these strategic interactions do however not lead to a stalemate without progress since such a stalemate would not form a consistent set of expectations. (6) Among the alternative consistent scenarios, there is typically one "focal" (Schelling 1960), relatively symmetric scenario in which no player has a considerable advantage, and several asymmetric scenarios in each of which one player is at an advantage.

This presentation will draw heavily from a large body of scenario research summarized in Chapter 6 of the Working Group 3 contribution to AR5. Over 1000 new scenarios published since AR4 were collected from integrated modeling research groups, many from large-scale model intercomparison studies and synthesized in WG3. These scenarios provide important information on key questions such as the near-term emissions reductions consistent with meeting long-term goals, the costs of mitigation, and the energy and land system transformations. In comparison to AR4, new scenarios have considered more ambitious concentration goals, a wider range of assumptions about technology, and more possibilities for delays in global mitigation and fragmented international action than those published previously...

Drawing on this literature, the presentation will address several questions that provide context for understanding transformation pathways. First, to what degree is it possible to link between near-term emissions reductions with the goal of limiting temperature change to less than 2C or other goals? While it is possible to draw some conclusions about this link, the relationship is heavily influenced by assumptions of what sorts of future emissions reductions are feasible. Further, the relationship between any temperature goal and emissions and concentrations is highly uncertain, meaning that this relationship can only be expressed in terms of the probability that temperature will remain below 2C. Second, what are
some key characteristics of transformation pathways that maintain likely temperature change below 2C. Key characteristics include emissions reductions rates, sectoral emissions reductions, economic costs, and technology transformations. Finally, to what degree can scenarios inform questions about which pathways are more feasible than others? Mitigation actions inherently involve a wide range of tradeoffs that link to social and policy objectives such as economic growth, energy and food security, the distribution of economic costs, local air pollution, other environmental factors associated with different technology solutions, and economic competitiveness. All of these linkages will influence the likelihood and feasibility of different pathways. Assessments of feasibility must, in addition, account for the rapidity at which social and technological systems would need to change to maintain temperature change below 2C.

K-4402a-02

Staying below 2°C: What are the implications of and requirements for short-term policies?

G. Luderer (1) ; E. Kriegler (1)

(1) Current efforts to mitigate climate change are not in line with mitigation pathways stabilizing global warming below 2°C in a cost-optimal way. Over the past decade, global greenhouse gas emissions have further increased and are projected to reach 50–59 GtCO₂e by 2020. This is much higher than emission levels in mitigation scenarios that assumed comprehensive mitigation action towards 2°C stabilization from 2010. The discrepancy between the long-term ambition of climate policy, i.e. limiting global warming to 2°C and the weakness of mitigation action raises important questions: What are the consequences of delaying comprehensive climate policies? What are requirements for policies and measures to keep the 2°C target within reach?

This presentation will draw on a number of recent studies based on integrated energy-economy-climate models (AMPERE, LIMITS and ROSE multi-model intercomparison projects, as well as single-model studies) to address these questions. There are a number of robust, policy-relevant insights that emerge from these studies about the adverse consequences of a further delay of comprehensive mitigation action:

* Due to the tight constraint on cumulative CO2 emissions implied by the 2°C limit, higher than optimal emissions in the near-term have to be compensated by lower emissions in the long term. This implies a much faster pace of emission reductions in the medium term. Scenarios with high 2030 emission levels feature post-2030 emission reduction rates that are roughly twice as high as those in scenarios with optimal timing of mitigation efforts.

* At the same time, a lack of meaningful mitigation action in the near-term reduces the longer-term mitigation potential. This is due a further lock-in into carbon intensive infrastructure, and insufficient upscaling of low-carbon technologies. As a consequence, the deep emission reduction required become more difficult to achieve.

* The deep long-term emission cuts also imply a greater reliance on specific technologies and reduced societal choices. In particular, in case of weak short-term policies the 2°C limit can only be kept with large-scale deployment of bioenergy and CCS.

* A further delay of mitigation action results in greater overall costs of the mitigation effort, and a more unequal distribution of these costs over time. In particular, we find that a further delay substantially increases the economic costs during the transition from a weak to a comprehensive climate policy regime, thus raising the barrier to the low-carbon transformation.

* Finally, replacing fossil fuels by climate-friendly alternatives comes with several co-benefits, in particular in the form of decreased air pollution and improved energy security. Delaying climate policy implies that crucial co-benefits, such as decreased air

pollution and improved energy security, are foregone.

The presentation will further explore how enhanced near-term action and post-2020 policies can reduce these adverse effects, thus helping to keep the 2°C target within reach.

O-4402a-01

The energy transformation in 2°C pathways: upscaling technology, investment needs, stranded assets and the role of energy demand

V. Krey (1) ; B. Bertram (2) ; J. Eom (3) ; N. Johnson (1) ; D. Mccolllum (1)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy program, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) KAIST Business School, Graduate school of green growth, Seoul, Republic of Korea

A major challenge in limiting temperature change to 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is the transformation of the energy system which requires rapid upscaling of low-carbon technologies to significantly reduce GHG emissions. Deploying the energy technologies needed to initiate a sustained energy system transformation requires continued research and development as well as significant investments to be mobilized by the global economy.

The timing of mitigation action and in particular the stringency of near-term climate policy determines the challenge we are facing now versus the challenge we may face in a couple of decades. While delaying stringent climate action has the benefit of allowing for more development space over the coming decade or two, it amplifies the need to rapidly decarbonize the energy system thereafter if temperature change should be contained to 2°C or less. An important implication of weak near-term climate policies is the need to prematurely retire carbon-intensive infrastructure such as coal power plants, coal mines or oil wells, once moving to a more stringent climate regime. This trade-off particularly affects developing nations that are still in the process of building up a large part of their infrastructure.

In this contribution we will present results on technology upscaling, investment and decarbonization rates from integrated, model-based scenario studies. These will be put into the context of historical developments, both at the level of countries and regions and at the level of individual technologies.

In addition, the decarbonization of the energy supply sector needs to be complemented by a switch to low-carbon energy carriers in the end-use sectors as well as the reduction of energy demand, both of which are key strategies to reduce GHG emissions. In particular the latter is shown to provide additional flexibility for an energy system transformation by hedging against potential resistance to large-scale deployment of energy supply technologies and by reducing stranded assets as well as generating multiple non-climate benefits.

O-4402a-02

Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris – Economic Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

Z. Vrontisi (1) ; B. Saveyn (1) ; T. Vandyck (1) ; A. Kitous, (1) ; A. Labat, (2) ; M. Perry (2)

(1) European Commission (DG JRC-IPTS), Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (2) European Commission (DG Climate Action), Brussels, Belgium

On 25 February 2015, the European Commission has set out its Communication, «The Paris Protocol – a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. This paper presents the modelling work undertaken in the context of the abovementioned EC communication regarding the economic impacts of post-2020 global climate change mitigation policies. The analysis presented here mainly lies on results from the economic model GEM-E3, combining the work undertaken with the energy systems model POLES for the purposes
of the EC preparation for the global climate negotiations. It focuses on possible ways to stay below 2°C through processes established in the run-up to Paris COP21 by studying a combination of domestically determined mitigation targets for the period beyond 2020.

The GEM-E3 model is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model which covers the interactions between the economy, the energy system and the environment. The model is calibrated to the 2004 base year of the GTAP 8 database. This version of the model represents 21 sectors, 10 power technologies and 25 regions, including all major economies. The six Kyoto greenhouse gasses represented are CO2, SF6, PFC, HFC, CH4, and N2O. The POLES model is a global sectoral simulation model for the development of energy markets.

The GEM-E3 and POLES models share a harmonised Baseline with population and economic growth projections based on the UN and OECD. The projections do not consider the impacts from unabated climate change. In this Baseline scenario, global emissions would increase at unsustainable levels: from 48 GtCo2e in 2010, 61 GtCo2e in 2030 to 68 GtCo2e in 2050. Along such trajectories, the world is at risk to experience a global temperature increase of 2°C with sizeable impacts on sustainable growth and vulnerable groups in all regions. The Global Mitigation scenario is in line with staying below 2°C, with global GHG emissions peaking in 2020 and reaching about 43 GtCo2e in 2030, still higher than in 1990 (+20%) but lower than in 2010 (-10%).

The economy-wide impacts are twofold. Firstly there are direct costs of mitigation due to regional emission

constraints and the reallocation of resources for the mitigation effort. Secondly there are indirect costs or benefits from changes in competitiveness, production patterns, investment and relative prices of energy, labour and capital. It is seen that carbon-intensive sectors need to adjust their investments in order to reduce their emissions, and sectors with a low emission-intensity are affected according to their level of openness to emitting sectors. The effects analysed include GDP, sectoral activity, exports and imports, employment, private consumption and investment. The results indicate that, although due to reallocation of resources created by a global mitigation effort, negative impacts on GDP are seen for all regions, in effect, climate change mitigation policies only marginally reduce the yearly economic growth rates in fast-growing low-income regions. A decomposition analysis of the drivers of GDP change gives a further insight on the impacts of the global mitigation policies.

Another dimension of the analysis is the choice of policy instruments. For this purpose, we compare the use of free allocation of permits with the use of auctioning or taxation. The revenues of auctioning or taxation are recycled as a lump-sum to households, a reduction in labour taxes or in indirect taxation on consumption and investment. It is found that, depending on their regional economic characteristics, for the majority of the regions the optimum recycling of permit auction revenues is to lower indirect taxes while for some countries it is best to use emissions revenues to reduce taxes on labour. Economic costs can be reduced further if the auction revenues are not used only for tax reductions but are combined with a financial scheme.

# 4402b - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-4402b-01

#### Regional greenhouse gas emission pathways within the context of the 2 °C target: Insights from the LIMTS project

D. Van Vuuren (1); M. Tavoni (2)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. In several recent model comparison studies, different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations were explored in relation to the 2 °C target. The scenarios developed in these projects can be used to derive key information for individual (major) economies and regions. This includes for instance information on emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. In this contribution, we present these outcomes (especially those of the LIMTS project) for focus on the differences across these regions. For instance, in terms of mitigation measures, costs and carbon budgets clearly different results can be noted. In our contribution, we also highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

As the models presented in this contribution do have global coverage – the presentation allows also to act as a bridge between the two important parts of the session on low carbon emission pathways (global and regional).

### K-4402b-02

#### National pathways to deep decarbonization - Methodological insights from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

H. Waisman (1); M. Colombier (1); E. Guérin (2); J. Sachs (2)

(1) Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France; (2) Sustainable development solutions network, New York, United States of America

Can countries take the carbon out of their economies, and still provide economic prosperity for their citizens? National circumstances and approaches differ, but four pillars of decarbonization are identified universally, in developed and developing countries alike: (i) strong improvements in energy efficiency, (ii) making energy carriers almost zero carbon (low-carbon electricity sources, biofuels, hydrogen), (iii) shifting energy use as far as possible to these low-carbon energy carriers, (iv) fostering structural changes reducing output from carbon-intensive activities and (v) reduction of remaining direct emissions, using a variety of technologies.

An initiative of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), the 'deep decarbonization pathways' project (DDPP) analyses how the different pillars of decarbonization can be operationalized in 15 countries representing, in total, 70% of global 2010 GHG emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the UK, and the USA.

The approach of DDPP is to have country research team develop a national-scale pathway analysis for deep decarbonization consistent with the 2°C global target to 2050. This study is supported by expert-based assessments of national decarbonization as basis for an internally coherent and transparent analysis of the country-specific transformations able to satisfy the twin objectives of development and deep decarbonization.

The preliminary results from this work were published in a report for the UN Secretary-General, in support of the Climate Leaders' Summit on September 23, 2014. Revised analysis providing a comprehensive vision of technical, socio-economic and policy aspects of long-term deep decarbonization will be conducted in early 2015 and delivered to the French Government in the lead-up to COP-21.

In this presentation, Michel Colombier, IDDRI's scientific Director, will present the scientific approach and the methodological specificities of the scenario analysis that make the DDPP relevant to inform national and international policy debates. Notably, a focus will be given
to the backcasting long-term approach, the «dashboard» methodology that allows transparent and explicit representation of the pathways and the iterative process for elaboration of the national pathways.

K-4402b-03

Technology Policies and Accelerated Diffusion of Decarbonization Wedges

P. Criqui (1) ; N. Alazard-Toux (2) ; JG. Devezeaux de Laverne (3)

(1) CNRS and ANCRE, Pacte-eden, 38040 Grenoble cedex, 1-4 Avenue du Preau-92852 Ruel Malmaison Cedex, France; (2) IFPEN and ANCRE, Direction économique veille, 1-4 Avenue du Preau-92852 Ruel Malmaison Cedex, France; (3) CEA and ANCRE, l-têse, centre de sacyl bâtiment 524, 91191 Gif Sur Vytte, France

The rapid and deep decarbonization of energy systems that is required in the 2°C scenarios will result from a complex mix of institutional, behavioral and technological changes. While many economic models and mitigation scenarios have initially focused on the role of economic instruments for triggering these changes, the role of new technologies have been progressively been made more explicit as a central element for the feasibility of low carbon futures. In particular, filling the gap between bottom-up nationally determined contributions and the requirements of 2°C scenarios will require a worldwide effort to accelerate the diffusion of energy efficiency and low carbon options.

Following to pioneering studies (Stabilization Wedges, Sides and Pacala [20], Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA, since 2006). The role of new energy technologies has been extensively studied in the past ten years (EMF 24, different projects in European Framework Programs, IPCC AR5...). While a new stage in climate negotiations and policies is expected to start when the Paris Climate 2015 results in a positive outcome, the fulfillment of the announced Nationally Determined Contributions will involve a quick mobilization and scaling-up at world level of low carbon technologies, on the demand as well as on the supply side.

Research projects such as the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of UN-SDSN provide clear images of what has to be accomplished in the different countries in order to come closer to emission trajectories compatible with the 2°C scenarios. However further enquiry is needed to explore both the radical/systemic innovations and the policy and social dimensions of the accelerated diffusion of low carbon technologies. In this context, the National Alliance for the Coordination of Energy Research (ANCRE), which gathers the scientific resources of the main public research institutions in France, proposes a communication on the development of low carbon energy technologies and systems. These are the "Decarbonization Wedges" that ANCRE is currently exploring in an eponym study that mobilizes the knowledge resources of this organization.

The communication will first identify the main decarbonization wedges to 2050 and analyze their potential, Technology Readiness Level, and expected development in different regions according to international studies such as Deep Decarbonization Pathways. It will then analyze the different types of barriers to be overcome before their rapid and massive diffusion: either technical, economic or social. It will then present elements of consistent RD&D strategies at the international and national level to speed-up the diffusion of these technologies in the different regions of the world.

O-4402b-01

Analysis of current climate policies, intended national determined contributions (INDCs) and possibilities for strengthened policies at the regional scale

M. Den Elzen (1) ; H. Fekete, (2) A. Admiraal, (1) N. Forsell, (3) N. Höhne (2) ; A. Korosuo, (3) M. Roelfsema, (1) H. Van Soest (4) ; K. Wouters, (5) T. Day, (2) M. Hagemann (2) ; A. Hof (1) ; A. Mosnier (3)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany; (3) IJIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria; (4) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (5) Ecofys, Utrecht, Netherlands

This study provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on the most effective current and planned climate and energy policies, as well as selected enhanced mitigation measures and the intended national determined contributions (INDCs). In addition, we also analyse the ambition of the INDCs using a wide range of methods (see below). The country-specific mitigation policies in promising areas for enhanced actions are in line with national priorities and opportunities (e.g. co-benefits). The analysis focuses on 13 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and the US). The impact of the most effective current and planned policies on greenhouse gas emissions was estimated based on calculations from energy and land use model calculations, and scenarios from national and international studies. The main findings are:

* The degree to which countries/regions are likely to achieve their 2020 pledges under current policies varies: of those considered here, Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and Russia are likely to achieve their pledges through existing policies. Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and the US require additional measures to achieve their 2020 pledges. The US and Mexico could achieve their pledges if planned policies are effectively implemented.

* Even though current and planned policies are projected to have an effect on emissions, increases would still occur in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey until 2030. Emissions in Brazil, Canada, South Korea, the Russian Federation and the US would remain stable between 2015 and 2030. In the EU, emissions are projected to decrease further under current policies, but not enough to meet the INDC of EU of a 40% domestic reduction target by 2030.

* In all the countries/regions considered, significant further reductions are possible through a selection of policy enhancement measures that are in line with national priorities. The selection of policies and measures is illustrative and not exhaustive. With the selected enhancement measures included here, China and Mexico would stabilize emissions by 2030, at the latest. The EU, Japan, South Korea, and the United States would achieve a pathway with further reductions in line with their long-term targets. The EU would meet its INDC for 2030<sup>1</sup> and the US its announced 2025 reduction target. Emissions in India, Indonesia and Turkey would continue to increase strongly, but less so than under current and planned policies.

* Looking only at 13 major emitting countries/regions, the enhanced policy scenarios in this report could reduce emissions by 6.1 GtCO2e by 2030, compared to under current policies. This is roughly a third of the difference in global emission levels between a scenario consistent with the 2°C target and a current policies scenario based on the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2014.

* Countries' efforts should be of similar ambition. A large variety of methods exist that allow to compare countries' efforts. For a comprehensive ambition assessment we propose to use an array of methods that we group in terms of whether they assess "moral obligation" or "technical necessity".

Applying these methods to existing proposals by the USA, China and the EU, a consistent picture emerges that the proposals by EU and China are more ambitious than the proposal by the USA. The methods do not provide a consistent picture on whether EU's or China's proposal is more ambitious. While China leads slightly on "moral obligation", the EU generally leads on "technical necessity".

4402 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-4402-01

A 90% Reduction in Canada's Emissions by 2050: Macroeconomic and physical evolution or revolution?

C. Bataille (1)

(1) Institute for Sustainable Development and International
What does 90% decarbonization of the Canadian economy look like, physically and financially? Is it a financial evolution, or a revolution? An opportunity or a calamity, and for whom? What are the uncertainties? Canada already has strong and binding long term policies on transport and buildings whereas, with a couple of exceptions, regulations are largely missing for industry. In this analysis, we strengthen the existing transport and buildings regulations and add policy for industry. I use a regionally and sectorally disaggregated CGE methodology to model the following policy package. 1) Advanced efficiency regulations for transport, buildings and appliances, on the premise there are significant plausible market failures & pricing policies may be ineffective. 2) Regulations requiring oil and gas fugitive control and CCS on formation gas processing and hydrogen production, with the right to sell verifiable reductions into the following "market". 3) A tradeable emissions intensity standard for all large emitter based on sector specific "best-in-class" technology intensity targets. 4) I complete the policy package with an initially low but continually rising British Columbia style carbon tax with 50/50 recycling to labour and corporate labour taxes that eventually eclipses the other policies. For results I will review GDP, emissions, changes in sectoral investment and economic structure. I will conclude with a methodological discussion of the modelling changes that were needed to hit 2 tonnes per capita, including additional decarbonization technologies and changes to the modelling structure.

## P-4402-02

### Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

C. Bertram (1); G. Luderer (1); R. Pietzcker (1); E. Schmid (1); A. Kriegler (1); O. Edenhofer (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015. Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy-economy model, we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave the way for future decarbonization, and (3) a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants to limit stranded assets. We find that such a mix limits the efficiency losses compared with the optimal policy, and at the same time lowers the distributional impacts. Therefore, we argue that this instrument mix might be a politically more feasible alternative to the optimal policy based on a comprehensive carbon price alone.

To limit the mitigation costs and risks of achieving the 2 °C target, it is essential to start comprehensive climate policies as soon as possible. Recent studies have shown that pledged reductions are not consistent with cost-efficient emissions pathways reaching the 2 °C target. Furthermore, a continuation of climate policy at the current ambition level will not lead to a stabilization of climate change, and the delay of more stringent mitigation actions will significantly exacerbate the challenge of reaching long-term climate policy objectives. Current policies fail to induce the transformation of the energy system to the extent required for reducing climate targets and lead further lock-in into carbon-intensive infrastructure. Not only do too much emissions occur in the near term, but also mitigation later on is rendered more difficult. It is an important question whether technology policies can reduce such lock-in and mitigate the impacts of delay. Although a few studies based on global energy-economy policies have considered single packages of technology policies in their analysis of twenty-first-century mitigation pathways, none of them explored this question.

The environmental economics literature has also not focused on the scope of technology policies for overcoming deficiencies in carbon pricing. In this strand of scholarly work, technology policies have mainly been analysed as means to cure market failures beyond the pure pollution externality, for example, due to learning spillovers, information asymmetries and so on. In contrast, here we analyse their complementary role under sub-optimal carbon pricing. There is wide agreement that market instruments pricing the externality of emissions have an advantage in terms of efficiency. At the same time it is debated whether or not setting a price (carbon tax) or a quantity of tradable permits (cap-and-trade) is preferable. Some authors find that the interaction with other instruments favours the price instrument, a finding that our study extends to the case of sub-optimal carbon pricing combined with technology policies.

This study is the first to assess which mix of emission further lock-in and initiating the transformation required for limiting warming to 2 °C. We thus fill an important gap in the literature by informing the ongoing climate policy debate, which so far revolves around modest approaches to carbon pricing and various forms of technology policies in several countries around the world, tantamount to a lack of comprehensive emissions pricing in line with the 2 °C limit.

Our analysis identifies a policy mix that—based on the positive effects of technology policies under sub-optimal carbon pricing—keeps ambitious climate targets within reach and is possibly easier to implement politically. It does so by addressing two crucial questions: (1) how weaker-than-optimal carbon pricing schemes and additional technology policies interact, and (2) which combination can best reduce the adverse effects of sub-optimal carbon pricing.

## P-4402-03

### Energy transitions in France: lessons from a forward-looking study

R. Bibas (1); J.C. Hourcade (1)

(1) International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France

The general equilibrium model Imaclin France-R is used to examine various energy transition strategies leading to a path of the 2030 carbon price. A macroeconomic balance a set of assumptions about the technical conditions of supply and demand for energy varies as it is or not housed in a package that does not come from one area of energy policy: fiscal policies to prevent the spread of the additional costs of energy in the production system, social and wage bargaining to manage the recycling of the product of a carbon tax, reform of financing structures, industrial policies and training for new jobs, infrastructure policies and behavioral change. We then show how a funding policy lowering the coefficient of investment risk "low carbon" would, by enhancing the credibility of public policies, reduce fears that explain the reluctance of market participants and trigger a shift in investment towards faster simple equipment into energy. The macroeconomic balance changes according to the terms of the transition, but is positive in the medium and long term in terms of growth and employment, this because of the synergy between three mechanisms: decrease of carbon imports, energy savings releasing purchasing power of households in non-carbon goods and services, lower labor costs allowed by a carbon tax. Economic Support of the Transition is critical to move from a slightly negative balance in the short term to a positive balance sheet, in order to give the 'grist' needed to reduce these tensions. The challenge is an effect credibility 'from the consistent conduct of pricing policies and funding guiding policies in a negative context'. As for the nuclear issue, we see a big difference between a nuclear constrained by increased demands 'precautionary' and a voluntary exit 2050 with a ban on building new plants. This last assumption is to respect the F4, an important and early development of CCS and leads to growth retardation of 4.5 years over 40 years excluding conversion costs, and, conversely, profound changes behavior and economic structures. Scenarios 'precautionary' nuclear 'limit its place around 40% of the energy mix in 2050 and allow a decision to back exit or new deployment that can be taken later 'better informed'. The challenge now is to get into position to take it with a strong national consensus not only the ultimate technology choice, whatever it is, but also economic and social policies consistent with this choice.
# Technology and innovation to low-carbon pathways in Brazil

B. Bressan (1); M. Poppe (2); G. Jannuzzi, (3); A. Furtado, (3)

(1) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable Development, Brasilia-DF, Brazil; (2) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable development, Brasilia - DF, Brazil; (3) University of Campinas - UNICAMP, Mechanical engineering faculty, Campinas - SP, Brazil

The UNFCCC intends to approve more stringent targets to reduce carbon emissions globally. One of the instruments that has been created by the Climate Convention is the Technology Mechanism. The Convention comprises a Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and a Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN).

Developing countries are asked to prepare reports detailing their technological needs to develop mitigation and adaptation climate plans. These reports are known as Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) and are prepared according to the guidelines and offer the basis for technological procurement and transfer efforts of select established solutions very often already dominated and commercialized by industrialized countries.

CGEE (a non-profit organization with the mission of rendering Science, Technology and Innovation as Brazil's best allies for economic growth, competitiveness and well-being) is coordinating, as a subsidy for the Ministry of Science and Innovation, a group of experts with wide experience on technology development and transfer in order to propose a suitable methodology for the Brazilian reports, oriented to formulate a Technology Capacities and Needs Assessment (TCNA). Therefore, technology needs are associated to national capacities and competencies supporting the designing of a Technology Action Plan (TAP) to fight climate change. Moreover, preparing a TCNA indicates the possibility for developing countries to not only attract know-how and new technologies, but also to be able to offer these resources to other countries.

The contribution aims to improve the assessment and action plans taking into account the opportunity for developing countries to enhance and promote its science and technology base and to create new solutions to more meaningful and sustainable pathways in the own social context. One key step in the proposed methodology is a detailed inventory of local capacities and competences not only within the science and technological communities but also their industrial base. So, it will be possible to enhance the national innovation chain and place developing countries as more relevant international players in the arena of scientific and technological activities, being able to generate new technologies and solutions that can be applied in other similar developing countries as well. Additionally, the adaption capacity of more vulnerable countries and regions could be upgraded.

# Analyses between rapid mobilisation for World War 2 and the Great Energy Transition: Lessons and caveats

L. Delina (1)

(1) Independent Scholar, South Cotabato, Philippines

To have a high probability of limiting further global warming—at least to stabilize it to an average temperature increase of 2°C—climate science suggests that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. Current trend, however, heads towards at least 4°C by end of this century; yet, little effective climate action is being taken. In this presentation, I talk about contingency plans developed for a scenario in which governments are galvanised to implement an urgent transition of conventional energy systems—the biggest GHG contributor—to sustainable renewable energy systems. This Great Energy Transition, climate activists and some academics assert, would be feasible, invoking the magnitude of World War 2 mobilisations. I critically examined the plausibility of this analogue in this

talk. The findings, which I published in the journal Energy Policy, suggest some potential strategies especially in areas of finance and labour mobilisations, as well as in the governance and administration of these resources. Nonetheless, the analogue has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes, most especially. Moreover, since the threat of climate change is less obvious to many non-scientists, it is unlikely that the public will be unified in support of a highly centralised action. It appears therefore that prosecuting the Great Energy Transition seems to be more complex than prosecuting a great war.

# Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: the 2°C target and less stringent goals

(O. Dessens (1); G. Anandarajah, (2)

(1) Eney Institute, University college London, London, United Kingdom; (2) Energy Institute, University college London, London, United Kingdom

In this paper we present a study performed with the latest version of the TIAM-UCL model on the possibility to achieve different targets on the global temperature change due to greenhouse gas emission reduction. The study specifically analyses what will take us to meet the 2°C target in terms of peaking years and subsequent reduction rates needed. We also analyse two less constrained targets at 2.5°C and 3°C.

The first part of the study focus on the relationship between the peaking year for emissions (before mitigation policy) and the minimum percentage change in the emissions reduction afterward allowing the target to be achieved. Increasing temperature target (2.5 and 3°C) or the maximum rate of emissions reduction reduces the need of early mitigation policies (before 2025). In the case of the 2°C target, allowing overshooting of the target before stabilisation has the same effect. Given the continuing delay in implementing a global agreement on greenhouse gases emission reduction, we initially examined the window of opportunity to continue increasing emissions whilst still limiting the average surface temperature rise. We found that while it may still be possible to limit the average global temperature rise to the nominal 2°C target agreed on by policy makers, the opportunity window for realising this is closing rapidly.

We study in a second part more specifically the pathways toward the stringent 2°C target. The focus is now on where the mitigation occurs between developed, emerging and developing economies and what technologies and resources are needed. Per capita emissions were found to fall in all regions globally: in high-income regions these drop to less than a quarter of their 2010 level by 2050, while in middle and low-income regions they fall by 50%. On the technology side, we present the deployment rates of the low-carbon technologies needed to achieve the target. The first sector to decarbonise will be the electricity generation; the overall level and rate of installation of new capacity that is required globally is found to be entirely unprecedented at such temporal and geographical scales.

In conclusion, the opportunity to prevent a temperature rise less than 2°C remains possible and is indeed entirely necessary. However perhaps this opportunity becomes increasingly unlikely due to the required scale of the investments required.

# Development of pathways to achieve the SEALL 2030 objectives

J. Gregg (1); T. Kober (2); O. Balyk (1); CHC. Pérez (1); O. Soler (1); S. La Greca (1); MAD. Larson (1); TK. Anderson (1)

(1) Technical University of Denmark, Management Engineering, Roskilde, Denmark; (2) Energy research Centre on the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

The objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (SE4ALL) are to achieve, by 2030: 1) universal access to modern energy services; 2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (in terms of the rate of energy used per capita) to the nominal rate of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix (in terms of renewable energy share in the global energy
mix). The study explores the techno-economical pathways of sectoral and regional developments to 2030, taking into account realization of the potential for energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy deployment.

Beyond the reference scenario (which includes no additional policy measures or technology development beyond the current status quo assumptions), we create three alternative scenarios. The first alternative scenario focuses on the SE4ALL 2030 energy efficiency target through a combination of more ambitious technological improvements and policy incentives within end use energy consumption in the buildings, industry and transportation sectors. To create this scenario, we simulate substantial improvements in conventional technologies' efficiencies, phasing out of energy intensive technologies at an accelerated pace (replaced with more advanced counterparts), and the emergence / proliferation of innovative new technologies not yet widely available in the market.

The second alternative scenario focuses on achieving the SE4ALL 2030 renewable energy targets. This scenario sets both global and region-specific targets to closely follow those outlined by the International Renewable Energy Agency Global Renewable Roadmap (IRENA REMap2030).

The third alternative scenario combines the first two.

The alternative scenarios also incorporate the effect of various barriers to energy efficiency development, to simulate various known social, political, and economic effects that curtail adoption of new technologies. This allows for a more effectual representation of meeting the SE4ALL targets.

The technology-rich TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) is employed to analyze the various scenarios. From here, we develop technology and policy pathways for different regions for meeting the SE4ALL energy efficiency and renewable energy goals. The pathways are evaluated in terms of cost effectiveness and by assessing the degree to which modern technology is dispersed across the various regional technology profiles (the first objective of SE4ALL). The optimal pathways are converted into policy recommendations and cost estimates for best achieving the SE4ALL objectives.

## P-4402-08

# Towards a low-carbon Chinese economy: the role of transportation

M. Hamdi-Cherif (1)

(1) CIRED, Nogent-Sur-Marne, France

**Rationale and Objective:** Chinese economic development goes hand in hand with (i) a growth of the production that is accompanied with an increase of the freight transport, and (ii) an enriched population and fast-growing urbanization that induce increasing demand for passenger transport (notably an increase of the motorization rate). Given the high reliance of transport on oil products, its increasing energy demand and CO2 emissions, the transportation sector is a crucial sector for China, particularly regarding energy security and climate change issues. In its attempts to have a sustainable development, the transportation sector is indeed particularly challenging for China. To avoid important “lock-ins” in carbon-intensive pathways, especially given the high coal availability and the important life span of infrastructures, China has to reduce its efforts with voluntary schemes promoting mobility growth control. This paper investigates the role of transportation activities in the transition to a low carbon Chinese society. A particular attention is given to specific measures to control the growth of mobility. It is an attempt to quantify the impact of urban voluntary policies on Chinese mitigation costs.

**Methodology:** This article revisits the role of the transportation sector in low-carbon pathways by using the Energy-Economy-Environment model IMACLIM-R. It is a hybrid multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, which embarks a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation, and a standard representation of transport technologies is supplemented by an explicit representation of the “behavioral” determinants of mobility. The model relies on hybrid matrices ensuring consistency between money flows and physical quantities and allows an explicit representation of the interplay between transportation, energy and growth patterns. It accounts for the rebound

effect of energy efficiency improvements on mobility, endogenous mode choices in relation with infrastructure availability, the impact of investments in infrastructure capacity on the amount of travel, and the constraints imposed on mobility needs by firms' and households' location. Moreover, IMACLIM-R represents the second best nature of economic interactions and the inertias on technical systems that limit the flexibility of adjustments, a crucial dimension for emerging economies when envisaging large structural change over the course of the century. "Complementarily to carbon pricing to reach a stringent climate objective (3.4W/m2 in 2100), we consider actions to control the "behavioral" determinants of transportation in the course of the low-carbon transition, and assess their effects on the Chinese economy. More specifically, we consider (i) urban reorganization lowering the constrained mobility (i.e. mobility for commuting and shopping), (ii) reallocation of investments in favor of public modes at constant total amount for transportation infrastructure and (iii) adjustments of the logistics organization to decrease the transport intensity of production/distribution processes.

**Results:** This analysis demonstrates the risk of high losses if using carbon price as the sole instrument of mitigation. Transport proves to be the sector for which carbon emissions are the more difficult to reduce. It thus represents a dominant share of remaining emissions in the long-term when ambitious mitigation objectives are set. Because of its weak reactivity to price increases, very high levels of carbon prices are needed in the second half of the century to reach low mitigation targets. We find indeed that we can reach 1400s/tCO2 by the end of the century. But we find that controlling mobility growth allows limiting these effects by offering mitigation potentials independent of carbon prices. The considered measures allow significant reductions of carbon price levels (on average 25% lower over 2050-2100) and hence help limiting the macroeconomic costs of the mitigation policies (e.g. long-term mitigation costs are reduced by 5 points in 2050 and by 10 points in 2100).

**Conclusion:** This study highlights the role of transport in the mitigation process. Given a climate target, the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity prove to modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and to significantly reduce the mitigation macro-economic costs relatively to a "carbon price only" policy.

## P-4402-09

# A pathway to a low-carbon society for China

Z. Mi (1)

(1) Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Management and Economics, Beijing, China

As the leading primary energy consumer and the largest carbon-emitting country in the world, China is facing great international pressure to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, as well as a tight domestic fossil energy supply and a high level of air pollution. In the "U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change" released on November 12 2014, China announced to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions by the more difficult to reduce. It thus represents a dominant share of remaining emissions in the long-term when ambitious mitigation objectives are set. Because of its weak reactivity to price increases, very high levels of carbon prices are needed in the second half of the century to reach low mitigation targets. We find indeed that we can reach 1400s/tCO2 by the end of the century. But we find that controlling mobility growth allows limiting these effects by offering mitigation potentials independent of carbon prices. The considered measures allow significant reductions of carbon price levels (on average 25% lower over 2050-2100) and hence help limiting the macroeconomic costs of the mitigation policies (e.g. long-term mitigation costs are reduced by 5 points in 2050 and by 10 points in 2100).

## P-4402-10

# Pathways to be Opened towards Low Carbon Society - Findings on Multi-model Comparison in ICA-RUS Project

S. Mori (1) ; T. Washida (2) ; A. Kurosawa (3) ; T. Masui (4)

(1) Tokyo University of Science, Department of Industrial
Administration, Noda, Chiba, Japan; (2) Sophia University, Graduate school of global environmental studies, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan; (4) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Although the world agrees with the need for the global climate control on the long views, there are still serious barriers to resolve towards the near term policy decisions. The scientific and the societal uncertainties in the climate change policies must be the large part of this barrier. Besides the unknown factors in the natural science field, various heterogeneous uncertainties in the macro and micro economic outcomes of mitigation policies, the technology strategies, possibility of adaptation options, and the risk and benefits of the geo-engineering will cause complicated scenarios. It is difficult to predict the current and future generation as well as among regions also be the problem. The most preferable and acceptable decision making towards the agreement should be established from the risk management perspectives. Quantitative and comprehensive analysis is indispensable as a basis of discussion.

The Ministry of the Environment, Japan established an interdisciplinary research project, Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) conducted by Dr.Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies. In order to deal with the various uncertainties, four different type integrated assessment models, i.e. MARIA-14(Mori), EMDA(Washida), GRAPE(Kurosawa) and AIM(Masui), participate in this project to provide different views and the common information with respect to societal impacts of global warming, we analyzed, instant the iterative optimization, CGE model EMDA has a capability to provide gaming simulations among states. MARIA and GRAPE provide detailed technology strategies as well as the land use changes through the inter-temporal optimization. AIM which consists of multiple model modules provides most comprehensive information. In the ICA-RUS project, these models generate various solutions under same SSP and RCP based scenarios, providing common information on economic loss and regional GHG emission pathways. Three models of the above give energy technology option and land use changes while EMDA provides sectoral impacts. We also employ three "Alternatives left to humanity" represented by mitigation targets, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C global mean temperature increase (with assuming the climate sensitivity of 3.0 degreesC).

The current tentative conclusions are summarized as follows: first, in the stringent climate target, the economic losses among models tend to diverge. This variety seems to depend on the assumption on the malleability of the final energy demand, especially of the transportation sector. Second, CCS as well as BECCS will be essential to achieve the stringent climate target. Third, industry structure changes in Asia and Africa will show different patterns depending on the climate policies. Fourth, the models show small changes in the crop production and land-use patterns among various climate scenarios suggesting that the implementation of BECCS and the biomass energy expansion may not seriously conflict with the food supply under the reference optimistic yield assumptions.

Finally, some additional simulations on multi-stage decision making to deal with adaptive energy technology decisions will also be shown.

## P-4402-11

# Linking leadership to the upcoming global climate regime: Insights from the German Energiewende

M. Pahle (1) & K. Steinbacher (2)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; (2) FU Berlin, Environmental policy research centre (ffu), Berlin, Germany

In a nutshell, the main current problem with action for climate protection is that too many countries are doing too little. The run-up to COP 21 in Paris will without doubt see the formulation of numerous recipes on how to cope with this challenge. But leadership exerted by frontrunning countries has the potential to stand out in the end as the most effective ways of pushing climate action. The

particular clout of leadership that ambitious countries can take immediate action out of their own accord without being thwarted by inconclusive international negotiations. The hope behind this is to attract followers for a similar course of action and thus sidestep global stalemate. It is true that unilateral leadership - i.e. acting when no one else does, with a hope to set an example - entails the risk of being in vain if it lacks followers, resulting in considerable costs for the leader. Nevertheless, in a world of increasingly polycentric climate governance, action at the national level is indispensable - and leadership puts this national action at the service of a common cause. But what does it precisely mean for countries to be a leader and how can leadership be put into practice outside institutionalized multilateral negotiations, in a polycentric regime? Answering these questions is essential to increase the leverage of national action in supporting climate action at the global level. A better understanding of leadership in a polycentric climate regime is thus what we aim for in this paper.

The particular case we look at is the German energy transition, now widely known as the "Energiewende". Formally enacted in 2011, but based on a much longer history of transition, the Energiewende has sparked considerable interest around the globe. Beyond its perception as a potential source of - and negative - lessons, choosing the Energiewende as a case is particularly relevant given the fact that gaining followers on the way to a more sustainable energy system has been a main rationale and German decision-makers frequently claim leadership in this field. Our investigation concentrates on "leadership by diffusion" outside multilateral negotiation settings and uses a simple analytical framework derived from the literature on leadership and policy diffusion. In a first study, we analyzed the contributions of international Energiewende leadership and then review measures taken to translate this aim into action. We subsequently discuss Germany's approach to Energiewende leadership against the background of an evolution of the Energiewende itself. From this analysis, we find that while Germany has been a highly active leader facilitating the worldwide diffusion of renewables, a comprehensive leadership strategy in line with the very high ambitions of the Energiewende - towards a comprehensive energy system transformation - has not yet emerged.

Based on this finding, we discuss the requirements for such a strategy, including consistency across government, transparent communication and open dialogue with potential followers. Given that the main declared motivation for Energiewende leadership is to advance global climate governance, the requirements for this to be geared towards effective climate leadership. Crucial for this is (a) to safeguard legitimacy of the Energiewende as a policy model by giving priority to climate protection at the domestic level ("sending side"), and (b) to ensure that knowledge created in the implementation process is shared with and adaptable to the local context in other parts of the world ("receiving side"). We eventually lay out how these activities could be linked to and supported by the upcoming international regime, and how in turn the requirements of effective climate leadership can be taken into account in the future course and implementation of the Energiewende.

## P-4402-12

# Interactions between agriculture mitigation choices and fossil CO2 emissions within integrated low-carbon pathways to limit warming to 2 degrees

A. Reisinger (1) & A. Daigneault (2); J. Rogelj (3)

(1) New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand; (2) Landcare Research, Governance and policy, Auckland, New Zealand; (3) IIAASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Agriculture currently directly contributes 10-12% of global greenhouse emissions, with additional emissions from land-use change and energy consumption in food production, processing and transport. Emissions from agriculture are projected to continue to increase for much of this century as a result of a growing and more affluent population that demands more high-quality and protein-rich food. In total, agriculture is more responsible for more emissions than global air, land and sea transport, (depending on the method of allocating indirect emissions) almost as much as stationary energy supply.
This suggests that mitigation of agricultural emissions must be part of integrated abatement strategies, especially for stringent goals such as limiting global average warming to below 2 degrees relative to pre-industrial levels. However, while the challenge of decarbonizing key sectors responsible for emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is increasingly well understood, there is much less visible action at a global scale to tackle emissions from agriculture, due in part to perceived tensions between food security and poverty eradication on one hand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the other. In addition, while there is significant potential to reduce emissions per unit of product for most agricultural systems, there is little prospect of completely 'decarbonizing' food production at the global scale, in contrast to e.g. the electricity and potentially even transport sectors. The limited abatement potential and intersection of food security and poverty with mitigation goals thus tends to relegate agriculture into the 'too-large' vast set of climate policy priorities, and a perception that the global climate benefits from enhanced agriculture mitigation would not be commensurate with the effort and trade-offs required.

Here, we use global integrated assessment models to demonstrate that even though technical mitigation options for agriculture are more limited than for some other sectors, accelerating agriculture mitigation outcomes can make a crucial contribution to keeping the goal of limiting warming to below 2 degrees viable. We show that different assumptions specifically for agriculture mitigation potentials and policy approaches strongly influence global shadow prices for GHGs throughout the 21st century, overall climate policy costs and the timing of the global peak of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in global cost-effective multi-gas abatement strategies, and also influence the rate of decarbonization required from fossil-fuel intensive sectors after emissions have peaked. We further explore how different approaches to agriculture mitigation (encompassing closing yield gaps, reducing demand, and increasing technical abatement options) could influence global commodity prices and land demand, and thus what measures could enable achieving goals of food security, poverty eradication and limiting climate change jointly.

We conclude that expanding the overall mitigation potential for agriculture-related emissions and supporting practices to realize this mitigation potential in practice are critical components of integrated efforts to achieve low-carbon pathways, and that therefore the role of agriculture in climate policies and integrated approaches to mitigation warrants much higher attention than has been evident in the political literature. We note that in a globally cost-effective approach to mitigation, the greatest near-term benefits from enhanced agriculture mitigation would accrue to the most CO2-intensive sectors and regions due to the ability to defer costly near-term emissions reductions by a few more years. However, even the most ambitious scenarios for agriculture mitigation do not change the fundamental need to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by or before the end of the 21st century to retain a reasonable prospect of limiting warming to 2 degrees.

P-4402-13

Integrating domestic political constraints
in a global agreement on pollution reduc-
tion

A. Staes (1)

(1) Paris school of economics, Paris, France

One of the famous but unfortunately unsuccessful approaches to deal with global warming has been to create the missing carbon market emission. While it appeared at first to be a hope, it failed by not taking into account asymmetric information and transaction costs associated. Mechanism designs coupled with incentives literature constitute a new promising approach. To design optimal contracts, two different countries appear countries need to voluntarily participate and they need to provide optimal effort. Taking into account asymmetric information, the first best could not be implemented. Martimort and Sand-Zantman (2012) demonstrate there is a trade-off between the provision of incentives for participating countries and the provision of incentives to participate. To deal with this double free-riding problem, they design menu contracts such that all countries will participate in a fund but only the more efficient would provide efforts to reduce their

emission. By taking into account the diversity of countries, global contracts reducing pollution below the non-cooperating level (also called "business as usual") could be proposed.

Martimort and Sand-Zantman model (2014) does not take into account domestic political constraints in the design of the global agreement. Starting from their model, my contribution attempts to open the 'black box' of government involved negotiations. National governments face an asymmetric information issue: they are not perfectly informed about the firms' technologies (especially technologies to reduce emissions). Indeed, firms have an informational rent, which is source of distortions. Government could try to collect information on firms -thought bureaucrats for instance-. However, lobbies could try to capture bureaucrat. Avoiding capture for the governments could be costly. To tackle with these domestic constraints various mechanisms such as market or contracts should be considered at a domestic level.

Once taking into account domestic internal constraints, the setting up of general agreement mechanism could be modified. This analysis implies introducing double-edged incentives constraints to tackle asymmetric information issues both across and inside countries.

Research over contracts offers a way to focus on countries' different interests, maybe the more important issue that avoid any common agreement to be reached if denied. The integration of countries' internal political constraints makes more plausible the design of a global agreement. For that reason, this approach is relevant for the theme of day 4 "Collective action and transformative solution".

P-4402-14

Low carbon pathways prioritising human
needs and development

J. Steinberger (1) ; W. Lamb (2)

(1) University of Leeds, School of Earth & Climate, Leeds, United Kingdom; (2) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

Human societies have always required environmental resources, in the form of energy and materials, to survive and flourish. However, the level of resource requirements may be difficult to estimate, since it can depend on many factors. These factors include: local biophysical conditions, such as climate or available crops for food; technological options and efficiencies for delivering key services; but also socio-economic parameters, including consumption levels and inequality in distribution. This talk will present recent advances in the international study of energy requirements for human needs. These results may demonstrate that high levels of human wellbeing are attainable at moderate as well as very high energy use, and that the average level of energy use required to achieve high human wellbeing is declining over time. Moreover, it can be shown that energy itself does not play a dominant role in explaining the considerable advances in human wellbeing over the past half century. Research analysing the resource requirements to fulfil universal basic human needs within a low carbon future will be presented. This research must take into account political, social and economic factors, since fulfilling human needs at low levels of resource use most likely requires a fundamental restructuring of social and economic systems alongside technological advances.

P-4402-15

Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the
United States by 2050

MS. Torn (1) ; JH. Williams, (2) ; B. Haley, (2)

(1) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America

Limiting the anthropogenic increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius will require a reduction in global net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the order of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. As a result, there is a growing need to understand what would be required to achieve deep decarbonization
in different economies. We examined the technical and economic feasibility of such a transition in the United States, evaluating the infrastructure and technology changes required to reduce U.S. GHG emissions in the year 2050 by 80% below 1990 levels. Using the PATHWAYS and GCAM models, we find that multiple alternative technology paths exist to achieve this level of decarbonization in the U.S., assuming existing commercial or near-commercial technologies, natural replacement of infrastructure stocks, and the same level of energy services and economic growth as a reference case based on the U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook. Reductions are achieved through high levels of energy efficiency (1.8 GJ/S2012), deep decarbonization of electricity generation (<20 gCO2/kWh), electrification of most end uses (>50% of final energy), and switching remaining end uses to lower carbon fuels. A highly granular annual infrastructure stock-rollover model shows the physical adoption rates and investment required for key technologies in power, transmission, buildings, and industry. A regional hourly dispatch model of the electricity system for high renewable, high nuclear, high CCS, and mixed scenarios shows that flexible production of fuels from electricity can simultaneously provide both supply-demand balancing for reliability in systems with high levels of inflexible generation (e.g., >75% renewable) and low carbon fuels for applications that are difficult to electrify. Incremental energy system cost is equivalent to <1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the base case, with an interquartile range of -0.2% to +1.8% across a variety of technology scenarios and cost sensitivities, not including non-energy benefits from avoided climate change and air pollution. The future terrestrial sink can and the level of biomass feedstock that can be considered sustainable and low-carbon are key uncertainties for future energy sector emission reduction costs.

P-4402-16

A dashboard and linked, top-down economic and bottom-up energy system models that demonstrate development indicators, technology deployment, investment and economic structure trajectories consistent with emissions pathways to achieve the 2oC goal

H. Trollip (1); T. Caetano (1); B. Merven (1); A. Hughes (1)
(1) H. Winkler (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

Global top-down models indicate that it is possible to achieve global emissions consistent with limiting climate-change warming over the 2015-2050 timeframe to 2 oC. This will require a fundamental techno-economic transformation towards low-carbon societies. However, across nations, historical, social, economical, political, and environmental conditions vary widely and thus credible transition pathways at national level require analysis using national data and proper consideration of national conditions.

Similarly, national statistical, analytical and modeling resources and capabilities used to conduct this analysis vary widely. The global effort requires best possible analyses of national potentials for contribution to global mitigation efforts. The South African team is working with the Deep Decarbonation Pathways Project (DDPP), conducting such a national analysis. Teams participating in the DDPP are providing similar analyses for countries representing more than 75% of global emissions. The timing of the initiative, and coordination of generation of results from the analyses are designed to support global processes such as the UN Climate Leaders Summit in September 2014 and the 21st COP in Paris.

Over the past two decades the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town has been building local capability to model the South African energy and economic systems. This includes aspects related to emissions trajectories consistent with contribution to achieving 2 oC. Building on its rich tradition of research into energy, economy, environment and development, the ERC has been developing a linked economic energy system and emissions model. The ERC team has particular interest in inclusion of development indicators in the analysis, as well as those for climate change. The inclusion of these indicators in the international dashboard is used to provide a common set of data for national and regional

analysis and also provides a full set of economic, energy system and emissions data for the pathways.

In addition to providing results coordinated to support global processes the novel combination of a dashboard and soft-linked, top-down economic and bottom-up energy system models also provides impetus and direction necessary to identify key issues to focus efforts for further model refinements and development for ongoing support of these processes, and national level processes.

To support the DDPP the team has worked to provide results consistent with the global initiative while also focusing on model developments relevant to specific South African issues such as high unemployment, existing socio-economic structures, labour force skills profiles and skills development scenarios, and options for future economic structures and other associated socio-economic research and data for informing the development indicators. This novel approach of combining data on multiple issues from multiple sources and tailoring models to address specific challenges is used to provide relevant, credible, evidence-based storylines showing what is required for South Africa to achieve acceptable socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emissions pathways from 2015-2050.

P-4402-17

Back to the future: Assessing the risks of 2°C pathways

C. Von Stechow (1); J. Minx (1); K. Riahi (2); D. Mccollum (3); J. Jewell (4); G. Baiocchi (5)
(1) MCC Institute, Berlin, Germany; (2) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy Program, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (5) University of Maryland, College Park, United States of America

According to the most recent contribution of the IPCC, decision makers have some flexibility in terms of climate change mitigation timing and technology choices to achieve ambitious climate targets, such as the 2°C target. At the same time, they would like to pursue multiple other objectives beyond climate change mitigation that are affected by mitigation timing and technology choices. Depending on locally specific priority settings and risk perceptions, this could imply delaying mitigation efforts and/or ruling out specific technologies compared to the globally most cost-effective mitigation pathways and technology portfolios analyzed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Understand the implications of deviating from these cost-effective mitigation pathways for other risks related to mitigation choices could allow national decision makers to trade off various risks and priorities in a more informed way when choosing their mitigation policies.

On a global level, alternative mitigation pathways based on IAMs are primarily characterized by (i) the probability of exceeding a pre-determined temperature threshold and (ii) the aggregate economic costs of reaching that temperature threshold. Some studies have also analyzed (i) the potential co-benefits for non-climate objectives (such as energy security and air quality) and (ii) the risks for non-climate objectives (such as land availability and food security). While the first two characteristics have been in the focus of recent model intercomparison projects and scientific assessments (e.g. WGIII AR5/UNEP), and the co-benefits of mitigation pathways have gained in prominence (see, e.g., the Global Energy Assessment), the risks of alternative global mitigation pathways have attracted less attention - possibly except food security - both in the literature and in the public mainly for two reasons: (i) Mitigation risks are challenging to quantify, let alone monetize, on a global level - the discussion thus usually focuses on technology-specific risks, such as those associated with nuclear power, CCS or bioenergy. (ii) The mitigation risks tend to be smaller, less persistent, less prevalent, less irreversible and hence better manageable compared to the risks of unabated climate change (see IPCC AR5 SYR).

This paper aims at improving our understanding of mitigation risks for choosing amongst alternative ambitious mitigation pathways by drawing on IAM results. To this end, the paper will first review literature that has used various IAM outputs to discuss those challenges to mitigation pathways that have a bearing on risks for non-climate objectives and will hence serve here as
risk indicators for attaining/failing these objectives. In contrast to existing studies that focus on specific challenges or IAMs, this paper will proceed to analyze risk profiles of alternative mitigation pathways across a more comprehensive set of risk indicators most directly linked to other non-climate objectives, drawing on multi-model outputs from recent IAM intercomparison projects.

The ambition of the paper is to shed light on the risk tradeoffs involved in pursuing policies not consistent with the most cost-effective mitigation pathways to limit global warming to below 2°C. For instance, recent advances in the IAM literature stress that delaying mitigation efforts beyond 2020/2030 will lead to a lock-in of high-carbon and high energy demand development pathways and hence mitigation costs. But these scenario results have not yet been used comprehensively to evaluate the risks of delayed mitigation efforts for a large set of other non-climate objectives, particularly not in combination with

additional technological constraints and/or assumptions for ambitious energy intensity improvements. This paper wants to address this research gap and show in what way the flexibility of future decision makers in choosing climate policy consistent with the 2°C target will be reduced by climate policy decisions today.

Based on a preliminary evaluation of the scenario results, the paper puts forward that delaying mitigation as well as ruling out technologies from the portfolio of mitigation options could lead to problematic risk trade-offs for future decision makers that have to balance increasingly high risks of unabated climate change and increased mitigation risks for those technologies still on the table. These results could serve as a basis for developing new approaches to climate policies more adapted to locally specific priority settings and risk perceptions without endangering globally agreed climate targets.

# 4403 - Revising the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement architecture for better governance and outcomes

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-4403-01

#### «Revising the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement Architecture for Better Governance and Outcomes» Session chair

J. De Melo (1)

(1) Ferdix, Clermont-Ferrand, France

The Durban platform calls for "strengthening the multilateral rules-based regime under the [UNFCCC] convention". Issues of particular importance still to be decided are the particular legal form to be applied; if elements of the legal form are to be legally binding; how responsibilities are to be balanced across and among developed and developing countries; and the agreement's role, if any, in regulating or facilitating international emissions trading. Of the three approaches to choose from (expanded Kyoto-like approach, legalization of the Cancun architecture, multi-track approach), this session will focus on aspects of a multi-track approach. The approach would allow a variable geometry with different configurations of countries involved in different parts of the overall regime. [1]

The session is built around the observation that the climate regime needs innovative modes of governance that recognize that the current regime is a transnational regime complex that is increasingly inadequate for interstate governance. The chair will then note that the speakers' suggestions are all built around clubs of firms/cities/states that are conducive to the goal of building confidence (e.g. tackling easier problems such as soot with co-benefits; start linking with like systems to build confidence; designing smart border measures). This confidence-building approach is needed to build the collective action that has eluded the climate regime so far.

The chair will close by taking the example of the ongoing negotiations on an Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA), a good example of the three elements that are needed for a successful climate agreement (all were missing from the Kyoto Protocol). First, the treaty must encourage and promote full participation by countries. Second, the treaty must demand that parties change their behaviour substantially. Third, the treaty must provide parties with an incentive to comply with the obligations they have pledged to fulfil. Depending on the willingness of the parties engaged in the ongoing negotiations which should be concluded prior to the COP21, the EGA could turn out to the first global climate agreement. [2]

### O-4403-02

#### Revising the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement Architecture for Better Governance and Outcomes

D. Esty (1)

(1) Yale University, Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America

For two decades, the global response to climate change has centered on a top-down, targets and timetables oriented, government-funded, nation-state-driven framework of regulatory mandates. But this international treaty architecture has produced neither the action orientation nor the on-the-ground results needed to address the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Thus, the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement should be recast to support a 21st Century bottom-up climate change policy strategy that focuses on broadening "engagement" to ensure that those who make the decisions that matter from the perspective of changed behavior and transformed outcomes -- Mayors, Governors/Premiers, CEOs, and other civil society leaders -- are recognized and given more formal roles in the global community response to the climate challenge.

Professor Esty's presentation will explore three elements of what should be done to advance this strategy of broader engagement: (1) options within the 2015 Paris Architecture for formalizing the role of subnational jurisdictions and the other non-national actors and ensuring their "ownership" of and leadership on the climate change challenge; (2) a framework of metrics designed to encourage the contributions of this broader set of actors as well as providing structure and mechanisms of accountability for their actions; and (3) a strategy for dramatically expanding the funding for clean energy and other critical climate change investments through a focus on using limited government funds to leverage private capital. He will further explain how a reframed Paris Agreement that promotes broader engagement offers not just a pathway to more successful climate change action but also a 21st Century model for managing international interdependence.

### O-4403-03

#### De-fragmenting the climate regime for a better international climate governance

S. Maljean-Dubois (1)

(1) CERIC UMR DICE 7318, Aix-en-Provence, France

At the international level, a regime complex could be defined as «an array of partially overlapping and non-hierarchical institutions governing a particular issue» (Raustila & Victor). More precisely, regime complexes form «a network of three or more international regimes that relate to a common subject matter; exhibit overlapping membership; and generate substantive, normative, or operative interactions recognized as potentially problematic whether or not they are essential in

<footnote>[1] For example, see Abbott "Strengthening the Transnational Regime Complex for Climate Change" (2015), Bodansky "The Durban Platform: Issues and Options for a 2015 Agreement" (2012), Stewart, Oppenheimer, and Ruddy "Building Blocks for Global Climate Protection" (2013) Victor "Climate Clubs" (2015)</footnote>

<footnote>[2] See http://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/wto-environmental-goods-agreement-why-even-small-step-forward-good-step</footnote>