This presentation will examine the main emission-reduction schemes proposed, aimed at implementing a dynamic interpretation of the equity principle. It will then analyze which of the features within the proposals the next Climate Change Agreement should include in order to be equitable. To date three approaches- the Global Carbon Budget Approach, the GDRs Framework and the Mutual Recognition Approach- have gathered momentum. Every approach has strengths and weakness from an equity perspective.

P-4412-10

Research on Global Carbon Emission Quotas Allocation in post-Kyoto Era

Q. Zhu (1); Z. Wang (2); J. Wu (2)

(1) China university of petroleum, Beijing, China; (2) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

**Abstract:** By using the bottom-up and top-down modeling methods, this paper builds a global model on quotas allocation. Through simulation, we draw the following four conclusions: (1) due to the difficulties of determining abatement way, benchmark year and proportion of reduction, current global carbon reduction programs exist uncertainty. (2) single principle of quota allocation can not satisfy preferences of all regions, and may even lead to extreme result of quotas allocation. (3) the weighted principle of quota allocation based on controlling the total emissions can be adopted in the future. (4) the weighted principle of quota allocation should cover as many principles of quotas allocation as possible; meanwhile the target of emissions reduction determined by climate negotiations should be replaced by the weight of principles from voting.

# 4413a - Technology, transformations and capabilities in developing countries

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-4413a-01

#### Building pro-poor, low carbon innovation systems through international and indigenous efforts

A. Ely (1) ; D. Ockwell (2)

(1) STEPS Centre, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex, United Kingdom; (2) University of Sussex, School of global studies, Brighton, United Kingdom

Local innovation capabilities have long been recognised as a key requirement in forging new innovation trajectories and low carbon development pathways. Building on the foundational literature from innovation studies, a swathe of recent research has highlighted the processes through which these have emerged at national levels, in particular in emerging technological nations such as China and India. In most of these cases, indigenous learning processes have led to the build-up of Knowledge and capabilities within a usually small subset of elite firms.

At national levels (e.g. in the Chinese and Brazilian cases) the role of central policies and investment from strong development banks has combined with more local efforts to build innovation systems in poorer regions. Relatively few scholars have investigated the governance challenges associated with centralised policies and the sometimes divergent interests of provincial/ regional actors. At international levels, scholars have investigated the potential for collaborative research and development activities as a way of facilitating technology transfer and low carbon innovation.

Informed by some of these insights, international efforts are underway through the UNFCCC to try to provide external support for low carbon innovation of a transformative nature. In particular, the Climate Technology Centre and Network, as well as the Green Climate Fund, which claims transformative ambitions, promise to enhance developing countries' low carbon innovation activities. 'New donor nations' may also play an important role (for example the BRICS bank). These efforts raise a fundamental question, echoing earlier innovation studies work that has pointed to the difficulties of purposeful creation of innovation systems that have elsewhere emerged through complex indigenous interactions. How do international (donor) efforts co-ordinate with indigenous processes to foster the emergence of dynamic low carbon innovation systems?

This paper discusses some of the innovation systems literature that can inform our answers to these questions, especially the work of the Latin American school that has highlighted the challenges of implementing policies to build innovation systems that aim to emulate those that have emerged elsewhere. It will link to recent research carried out by the STEPS Centre around low carbon innovation capabilities and the role of 'system builders' in China and Sub-Saharan Africa. Linking this to the wider innovation studies literature raises questions for

international processes that aim to foster innovation for alternative trajectories in low and middle-income countries.

### O-4413a-01

#### Facilitating technological change to manage energy and climate challenges in developing countries

A. Sagar (1)

(1) Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Humanities and Social sciences, Delhi, India

It is well understood that new and improved technologies will play a key role in efforts to address the energy and climate challenges facing developing countries. But a range of resources and capabilities - technical, financial, business, policy, etc. - needs to be marshalled to facilitate the development and/or adaptation of such technologies and their deployment at scale. Drawing examples from India, this talk will illustrate the kinds of resources and capabilities that may be needed for different technologies at different stages of their technology cycle and how these might be brought together in a systematic fashion. In doing so, I will highlight the critical role of "innovation systems operators" in this process, as entities that identify innovation gaps as well as ways to overcome them by bringing together and coordinating relevant actors and expertise, appropriate finance and policy solutions. I will also suggest that such entities are a critical element of the capabilities to manage energy and climate challenges in developing countries where innovation systems often are not well organized.

### O-4413a-02

#### The role of partnerships in enhancing the transfer and diffusion of climate change technologies

A. Abdel-Latif (1)

(1) ICTSD, Geneva, Switzerland

The decision to establish a Technology Mechanism (TM), at the Cancun conference in 2010, was an important milestone in efforts to advance the effective implementation of the technology transfer provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since then, the two bodies of the TM - the Technology Executive Committee (TEC), more akin to a policy body, and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), the Mechanism's operational arm -have begun to carry out their work and activities.

However, the role of partnerships in enhancing the transfer and diffusion of climate change technologies has not received significant attention in the process of the TM's operationalization or in the work programs and activities of both the TEC and CTCN. Yet the mandates of both bodies include provisions to foster such partnerships. For instance, the mandate of the CTCN states that one
econometric model. Our contribution is hence to provide a well-rounded assessment of renewable energy knowledge and technology flows across countries. Preliminary results show that trade and patent data provide to some extent similar insights: markets in which patent protection is sought by inventors of a given country are also among the most relevant trade- partners for that country. Moreover, countries where more patents are applied for are also the countries where installed capacity is greater. However, there are cases in which such correspondence does not hold, and hence solely relying on patent statistics might provide biased policy insights.

## 4413 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-4413-01

#### Building fuel poverty measurement for the transport sector

A. Berry (1); C. Guivarch (1); Y. Jouffe (2); N. Coulombel (2)
(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Paris, France; (2) Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Paris, France

Because of climate change mitigation policies or depleting fossil fuels, fuel prices are expected to rise and an increasing number of households could face difficulties to afford their energy bills, adequately warm their home and achieve their required mobility. If development of fuel poverty measures is necessary to accompany fuel prices rises, their success highly depends on the capacity to identify the population at-risk. Attention has been focused on fuel poverty in the residential sector so far; however traveling by car is another essential energy service for part of the population (Sovacool, 2012). Having too high a fuel spending can induce restriction behaviours and it is particularly problematic when it becomes a barrier to access employment and when it causes Social and economic exclusion (Orfeuil, 2004). If an increase in fuel prices will affect more strongly households with the highest motorized mobility needs, here we show that assessing who are those households is not straightforward, and that it calls for the development of a new multidimensional fuel poverty indicator.

Assessing who the households at-risk are is not a simple task for three reasons. First, motorized mobility needs result from multiple factors depending on the geographic, technical and socioeconomic characteristics of households. For example, living in suburban areas requires traveling longer distances to reach central business districts, or driving an old heavy car requires more energy per kilometer than a brand-new compact car. As a result, the fuel spending can vary a lot among the population. Second not only the fuel spending of a household results from a combination of factors, but these factors are often constrained in the short term, such as the residential location, the efficiency of the vehicle owned or access to public transport. As a result, households do not have the same possibilities to act on their daily lives consumption and they might be forced to restriction behaviour. Third, alternatives to car exist. Public transport, walking and cycling are sustainable substitutes to car use, but these alternatives are not always available. These three reasons highlight the fact that households are unequally affected by increasing fuel prices, and it raises public concerns about their impact on the most vulnerable populations.

The choice of fuel poverty indicators is essential because indicators are the basis on which to quantify the extent of the problem, to identify the affected population and to monitor progress of measures (Moore, 2012). To diagnose fuel poverty in the transport sector, the first idea would be to transpose existing indicators used in the domestic sector to the transport sector. The ratio indicator considers a household is fuel poor if its energy spending exceeds a certain share of its disposable income (Boardman, 1991). A more recent measurement approach, introduced by Hills in the UK, consists in identifying households having a high fuel spending and low income (Hills, 2012). However we find these approaches are not satisfactory because they fail to consider the three aspects described above: (1) diverse motorized mobility needs, (2) restriction behaviours, (3) variable capacities to adapt. We develop a new composite indicator that does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility.

Our composite indicator differentiates three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices. We test this indicator on French data and we find 4,0% of French households are identified at-risks, another 8,3% are vulnerable in their required mobility and another 6,8% are dependents to car. Using a discriminant analysis, we characterize the three relevant groups and we find they show different geographic, technical and socioeconomic characteristics. Our results demonstrate using a multi-dimensional fuel poverty indicator that fuel poverty in the transport sector. High fuel spending, low income but also inadequate conditions of mobility can induce difficulties to achieve one's required mobility, and a comprehensive evaluation of fuel poverty requires an assessment of each dimension. By doing so, the composite indicator brings a new light on which support measures could be developed to insure future climate change mitigation policies are fair and equitable.

### P-4413-02

#### Sustainable energy transformations through innovation-system building

R. Byrne (1)

(1) University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, Brighton, United Kingdom

National systems of innovation (NSIs) provide the contexts within which all processes of technology development, transfer and uptake occur. NSIs are characterised by networks of actors (e.g. firms, universities, research institutes, government departments, NGOs, users), the strength and nature of the links between those actors, their capabilities, and the institutional environments within which they work. Particular technologies, and other innovations, emerge from particular combinations of these elements and their evolution. For example, recent research shows that the rapid adoption of solar lantens in Kenya can be explained as the result of an emerging solar innovation system that includes an evolving supply chain built over decades, detailed research of users' lighting practices, local - often donor-funded - experimentation with technologies and other innovations (such as finance models), and efforts to establish favourable policies. This Kenyan solar example also suggests that NSIs (including technology or sector-specific innovation systems) can be nurtured to evolve in particular directions, and so understanding how the Kenyan solar and other such cases have developed gives rise to potentially powerful exemplars for how policy interventions can encourage sustainable energy for all.

Taking this NSI perspective, the purpose of this presentation is to outline how international policy interventions such as SE4All, or the UNFCCC's Technology Mechanism, could be enhanced to successfully encourage sustainable energy transformations in developing countries. The presentation will draw on two main strands of academic literature – innovation studies and socio-technical transitions – to explain the theoretical basis for why innovation systems are so important, and what these literatures tell us about how to nurture NSI-building. Examples from the recent research on the Kenyan case noted above, and from others, will be used to illustrate these insights: i.e. how to build actor-networks, capabilities and conducive institutional environments that together can evolve into context-responsive innovation systems. In short, these literatures suggest that policy interventions should focus on achieving four overarching goals:

1. Build networks of diverse stakeholders who work together in projects, programmes and other interventions

2. Foster and share learning from research and experience

3. Promote the development of shared visions amongst stakeholders

4. Support diverse experimentation with technologies and practices

The presentation will finish with a sketch of what architecture could be established to realise these ideas in developing countries. In this regard, two – potentially complementary – proposals will be outlined. One proposal is to strengthen the capacity of national-level institutions – such as National Designated Entities under the Climate Technology Centre and Network – to act as innovation-
system builders. The other proposal is to use technology projects and programmes explicitly to build sustainable energy innovation systems.

## P-4413-03

# Community energy generation in the UK: the link between ownership of renewable energy developments and social acceptance

F. Chen (1)

(1) The University of Manchester, Tyndall Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom

Over the last decade, the UK government has increasingly discussed 'community energy' as a potential option to contribute towards meeting its renewable energy targets. One of the implied, and at times expressly stated, benefits of a community approach is an assumed related reduction in 'public opposition' to new renewable energy developments, which has been seen as slowing the rate of deployment and therefore threatening the realisation of related targets.

The link between ownership and social acceptance is an important research question, which has thus far lacked empirical evidence. The aim of this study is to bridge this gap by investigating three wind farm projects with three different types of ownership: fully community-owned, joint venture and fully private-owned with community benefits. The research will employ a wide range of secondary sources and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders of the wind farm projects and the local community residents.

The presentation will elucidate the impact of each ownership model on social acceptance, which will be considered in the context of other issues known to affect social acceptance, e.g. the process of consultation with the community, communications and trust between developers and communities, sense of place from the community, contested impacts, process of monitoring and perceived level of local benefits. The findings of the study will lead to recommendations for various stakeholder groups including local communities, developers and policy makers.

## P-4413-04

# Pacific Community Development Through Biofuel from Marine Biomass

A. De Ramon N'yeurt (1); S. Hemstock (2)

(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Center for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji; (2) Secretary of the Pacific Community, Economic development division, Suva, Fiji

This pilot project based in Fiji with ramifications in Tuvalu and Vanuatu explores the possibilities of developing for Pacific island communities a low-cost, sustainable new source of renewable energy (biogas, or biomethane) from pest marine biomass (invasive algal blooms and coral-destroying crown of thorn starfish) to develop the economy of local communities, create employment, reduce food and fossil fuel imports, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, clean up excess nutrients from sewage treatment plant discharges, and clean up beaches fouled by overabundant and invasive seaweeds. The process provides multiple products simultaneously: energy from biogas, a low-cost alternative to chemical fertilizers, plus the recyclable nutrients remaining after anaerobic digestion. The development of a low-cost, efficient anaerobic digesters will empower local communities to produce their own renewable energy source while protecting the environment and improving food security. Currently research is underway at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji with two Master-level students working on the topics of biomethane from seaweeds and crown-of-thorn starfish, respectively. Pilot community-level trials on the conversion of brown seaweeds into biofuel are underway in Tuvalu.

## P-4413-05

# Local energy and the emergence of the pro-saver

C. Nolden (1); N. Fox (2); M. Mari (3)

(1) University of Sussex, Centre on innovation and energy demand, sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom; (2) University of Sussex, Sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom; (3) Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom

The publication of the Community Energy Strategy in 2014 indicates increasing recognition of community energy within the UK. Using localised and tacit knowledge, local energy provision allows energy needs to be dealt with at the point of consumption, opening up opportunities for end-users and interest groups to engage in energy production and active consumption, 'pro-sumption', but also the potential to extend this to production and energy saving, 'pro-saving'. Local energy initiatives can combine distributed energy generation, alongside demand reduction and demand side response. The importance of distributed energy in the UK is highlighted in the Government's recent D3 report. It specifically refers to distributed energy, demand reduction and demand side response at a local level, but also takes into account the role that local government can play in their development. A further landmark enabling more distributed approaches is the Government's Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs), available for renewable energy generation technologies below 5MW. Technological diffusion, combined with an emergence of energy efficiency, is increasing political recognition, is establishing local energy as an alternative to the incumbent energy system. Local energy provides a space for engagement with energy production and consumption at the grassroots level, as well as for local authorities to play a more proactive role in influencing the scale and rapidity of D3 deployment. Often emerging out of community-led renewable energy projects, the initiatives can address issues such as energy prices, fuel poverty, the desire of independence from existing energy utilities.

Based on three case studies, this paper traces the emergence of 'pro-suming' and 'pro-saving' in a UK context. The first case study, South East London Community Energy (SELCE) examines a community energy group that wishes to generate renewable energy by the community. Community energy, for example by installing solar PV panels on public owned buildings such as schools. Their business model is based on income derived from the FiTs and selling electricity at a reduced price. The community group's second original focus, fuel poverty alleviation, however, had to be initially scaled back due to the difficulty of establishing a viable business model based on FiT income. In the second case study Hyde Farm Climate Action Network set out to find solutions for cold and draughting homes in the area which were restricted by conservation area regulations while people in the area had limited funds to do expensive energy efficiency measures. The community group received support from programmes such as ECHO Action and British Gas Green Streets, which allowed them to install renewable energy installations to some of the houses. However, they proceeded to set up their own 'Draught Busting' energy average deal with inefficient houses, address climate change and build community coherence. The Draught Busting Saturday concept proved a popular and an affordable way to improve the energy efficiency, as well as help those who were on low incomes. The third case study provides an example of local authority engagement with fuel poverty alleviation in Southern England. In the summer of 2014, over 150 households were provided with free electricity from solar PV systems installed by their social housing provider, the local authority. The authority paid for the costs of the panels that will eventually be recouped via the FiTs. Any additional revenue generated will be used for energy efficiency work on its social housing stock. The study found that as the households engaged with free energy generation, it also encouraged demand reduction and demand-side responses.

The SELCE case study is an example of 'pro-sumption' as electricity is being used on the site of generation. Their approach provides insights into the difficulty of negotiating what may appear to be a straightforward process in light of continuous scepticism towards decentralised energy. The Hyde Farm case exhibits more 'pro-saving' behaviour emerging out of a grassroots community approach and disintegration with established energy providers. The Southern England case provides a good example of renewable energy production, consumption and 'saving -pro-saving' - emerging out of a local authority initiative. In our discussion we explore how greater engagement
with distributed energy, demand reduction and demand side response may be fostered through a more facilitatory framework combining technological and social innovation at the local energy scale.

P-4413-06

«ENERGY HAVENS»: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC FUTURE. A study based on the example of Iceland

J. Zalpyte (1)

(1) Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Leipzig, Germany

There are many concerns on how to enhance environmental policies through participating in the international market with opened borders. For many years already a strong cooperation with countries with lower environmental regulations developed between the United States of America and some Western European countries. This development has brought forward a raise of standards in environmental policies across the world but a big gap still prevails in the regulations between developed and developing countries. Some environmental economists claim that trade flows across countries with different environmental regulations may create the "pollution haven" effect and a "race to the bottom" in environmental standards. Globalization

and international cross-border cooperation also play a vital role for international tax regimes. Different fiscal policies in one country influence the economic situation in others, even countries located far away. Companies and individual persons use the possibility of increased capital mobility and choose locations where the tax burden is lower. These locations are called "tax havens". Similar to "pollution havens", "tax havens" can create a "race to the bottom" in the collective tax base. The similarity of this terminology raises the question what makes a country a haven. Since the globalised market is being challenged by an increasing demand for energy and the energy supply is becoming one of the main cost factors in the production process for many industries, the research analysed a new definition of the term "energy havens". The term "energy havens" describes countries which have a big potential of renewable energy creation that can be provided to "power-hungry" consumers/energy-intensive enterprises. This is the aspect which differentiates them from the previously mentioned "pollution havens" because the use of traditional energy sources to offer industries a cheap energy supply would result in the "pollution haven" effect. The exploitation of renewable energy sources has to be feasible and ecologically desirable in order not to cause harm to nature and "pollute" the environment. The main target groups of this thesis are energy-intensive industries and the academic audience whose interest in the future energy market requires the research focused on electricity, with production cost as the main factor.

4414 - Leveraging Multi-layered Climate Science-Policy Social Learning and Dialogue for Transformative Solutions: Towards A Proposal to "Decade for Accelerating Climate Dialogue for Action"

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-4414-01

Learning for a change! The role and challenges of social learning for climate change adaptation

C. Vogel (1)

(1) University of the Witwatersrand, Global Change and Sustainability Institute, JHannesburg, South Africa

Climate change is an additional challenge that arguably all we have to factor into our lives including in local livelihood, local and national government and other decision-making contexts. A commonly heard 'mantra' now is "behaviour change" emerging from a sense of urgency that individuals and societies must 'change' behaviour so that we can both mitigate and adapt to climate change. Some seem to argue, for example, that we need well-planned 'dialogue'. But such calls for 'dialogue' and 'change' cannot be made in social vacuums. Issues of power as to 'whose behaviour should change?' 'for what and whose purposes?' and 'who is setting the dialogue agenda?' are some of the issues and questions that need careful consideration. In this paper, the background to social change and learning issues in various contexts is given focusing on developing country contexts. Examples of serious attempts to make inputs in southern Africa, using social learning approaches, are provided in various climate relevant and development areas e.g. water, food and disaster risk reduction. The challenges that arise and possible ways forward are sketched using some emerging evidence from the 'field'.

K-4414-02

Realizing low-carbon Asia based on science-policy interaction through Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)

M. Kainuma (1) ; T. Masui (2)

(1) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies / National Institute for Environmental Studies, Senior research advisor / fellow, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental

Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Realizing Low Carbon Society (LCS) has become a common understanding of the global community of researchers, policymakers and citizens engaged with the concerns of climate change and sustainable development. LCS gained currency when it was realized that, on the one hand drastic GHG emission cuts necessitating major changes in energy systems and socio-economic structures are essential to prevent dangerous climate change, and on the other hand every country's domestic developmental goals must not be compromised. Attempts to achieve convergence among the multiple goals of global climate change mitigation, national economic development, poverty elimination, sustainable development and environmental protection, have led to the importance of LCS and related paradigms.

The role of Asia is becoming more and more important, considering the rapid economic growth expected in the coming decades and projected doubling of greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2050 if efforts are not made toward achieving LCS. The reduction of emissions in Asia is imperative for transition by 2050 to a worldwide LCS that has halved GHG emissions from 2005 level. Transition to low carbon emissions and low-resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving the economic standards of living is vital for sustainable development. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.

We have been engaged in the development of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), which assesses policy options for stabilizing the global climate, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region, with the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and avoiding the impacts of climate change. Modeling is essential to understand the future pathways and support policy making processes for transformation to LCS.

Sustained efforts have been made to develop AIM model and transfer it to various Asian countries for developing LCS scenarios in each country over the past two decades. These include science-policy dialogues to implement LCS scenarios. One of important networking activities is Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) which was established in 2012 to formulate and better enable the implementation of low-carbon development in the region. This is expected to become an autonomous researchers' network based on south-south
cooperation in the region in the near future.

Several international research platforms of researchers have already made tremendous contribution to comparative analysis of socio-economic characteristics among different countries and stakeholders. They have developed integrated assessment models for setting de-carbonization future targets and optimal roadmaps, and shared the implementation process in designing collective solutions for international low carbon policies, infrastructure plans, eco-model city designs and industrial transformation processes. During all such collaborative research network activities, analytical methods, simulation models and evaluation indicators have been shared, investigated and refined.

The presentation will provide an overview of various analytical methods and tools used as a common scientific framework in Asia. This will include the integrated future scenario simulation system for a de-carbonization society and development roadmaps to achieve the 2 degree target. The presentation will also provide implementation examples from Asia that showcase transformative actions towards de-carbonization.

K-4414-03

## Implementing the long term transition towards Low Carbon Societies

S. Lechtenböhmer (1)

(1) Wuppertal Institute für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal, Germany

The work of IPCC and international governments has clearly established the global problem of climate change and identified possible solutions. It makes very clear that achieving a global climate compatible Low Carbon Society entails a «great transition» will change economies and technology and involve all societal groups to work together on coherent long term oriented strategies. This means that societies have to jointly develop long term visions that are able to guide short term oriented interests and activities. Such a venture needs engagement between all societal groups on all levels from local to global. The keynote will highlight the relevance as well as the potentials of collaboration between science and society by highlighting two relevant examples on Global as well as regional levels and by this making clear, what is needed for a global LCS transition.

In 2008 the G8 environment ministers decided to contribute to the global challenge of co-evolution of Low Carbon strategies between policy science and society. Based on a proposal by Japan they decided to create the Low Carbon Scoity Research Network. A network of science and governments of the G8 together with researchers from developing countries with a purpose to link together national discussions and strategies on LCS and to convey core LCS issues to international policy makers. The network has so far identified a clear international set of issues and was able to convey them into policymakers discussions.

Global approaches, however, need similar ones on other issues. One and the most intensive one is the climate law and strategy of the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia. This region hosts over 50% of German coal fired power generation and energy intensive industries, but is determined to achieve ambitious climate mitigation. In order to make progress towards the goals and to create a cross-societal movement a broad and long term oriented stakeholder process was implemented that already resulted in a policy program supported by all stakeholder groups.

O-4414-01

## A Transformative knowledge network of global youth for combating climate change: an intercultural perspective

J. Li (1) ; H. Dayan, (2)

(1) Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia; (2) EHESS, Centre edgar-morin, Paris, France

Understanding the societal, economic and environmental issues raised by the climate change at both global and

local level calls for the synergy of disciplinary knowledge and cooperation between all stakeholders of international community. It is widely recognized that today's youth will be the first group affected by the consequences of climate change on the socio-economic-environmental biosphere tomorrow, they will and should be the engine of a collective and participatory intelligence that would contribute to concrete proposals for curtailing the accelerated global warming. This requires creating opportunities for exchange networks, young people from several countries (e.g. Argentina, Burkina Faso, Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, France, Guinea, Italy, Nepal, Chad, USA...), known as Transformative knowledge network of global youth (TKNGY) to bridge the knowledge gap between scientists and civil society, i.e. young people engaged in activities for securing global sustainability across the world. The TKNGY platform is established with the purposes of advancing the aggregate knowledge of civil society in particular the Youth for Shaping an overall vision and defining feasible local action plan as a contribution to global climate policy.

The «Global Youth Climate Pact » project gather a multidisciplinary team to build a global intercultural exchange network targeting young people from several countries (e.g. Argentina, Burkina Faso, Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, France, Guinea, Italy, Nepal, Chad, USA...), known as Transformative knowledge network of global youth (TKNGY) to bridge the knowledge gap between scientists and civil society, i.e. young people engaged in activities for securing global sustainability across the world. The TKNGY platform is established with the purposes of advancing the aggregate knowledge of civil society in particular the Youth for Shaping an overall vision and defining feasible local action plan as a contribution to global climate policy.

The project seeks to leverage interdisciplinary knowledge and intercultural experience sharing between Youth in light of carving out a global climate strategy based on bottom-up approach. The network will be conceived as a new source of knowledge pool to facilitate open exchange and dialogue between diverse youth groups as well as with their interactions with global community by harnessing Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and social media. Two «crowdsourcing» tools, an online platform and offline focus groups, are dedicated to gather and share relevant data that will allow local young people to access and improve the scientific knowledge of sustainability and climate change and to develop skills of discernment regarding these issue areas.

The permanent online platform and scheduled offline meetings between young people from different parts of the world will commit to securing sustainable economic growth and to strengthen the solidarity between youth and local communities as well as taking local actions to address climate change. This platform will be constantly enriched and improved through young people's innovative thoughts and ideas within a non homogeneous economic, social and cultural context. It will also lead to the restitution of data on scientific knowledge and analysis of the perception and the proposals of the young students on climate change from an interdisciplinary research perspective. It must be emphasized that the interdisciplinary treatment of a scientific topic is concerned not only with the technological & socioeconomic aspects but also to those related to age, gender and culture.

Multi-dimensional analysis of the first results which will emerge at a meeting gathering all the actors of the project in Toulouse in May 2015 will be the aim of this scientific communication. Results are expected to mark a significant step in enhancing knowledge, training and implementation in addressing scientific questions in regard to climate sustainability in particular. Calls for global community to bring together knowledge of environmental scientists and social scientists as well as associating engineers and practical know-how by paying a particular attention to intercultural dialogue/understanding, from which a collective intelligence of solutions especially among young people could emerge. The project expects to deliver a «Global Youth Climate Pact » at the Paris COP-21 in Dec 2015 as a result of a series of collaborative work between young students with the support of various international institutions including academia and NGOs as well as regional governments.

O-4414-02

## Doing Much More with the Same: Institutional Change and Social Learning for Sustainable Development Outcomes

W. Foerch (1) ; B. Harvey (2) ; T. Schuetz (3) ; P. Thornton (1) ; E. Le Borgne (4)

(1) CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, Policies and institutions for climate resilient food systems, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Collaborative adaptation research initiative in Africa and asia (cariaia), Ottawa, Canada; (3) Consultant, Muenich, Germany; (4) International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Climate change adds considerable uncertainties and complexities to what are already multidimensional development challenges. It is increasingly likely that we are already locked into a two-degree temperature rise, whatever happens to global greenhouse gas emissions even in the near-term. There is ample evidence that the resources needed to deal with the adaptation challenges exceed the resources currently mobilized for it. However, it is not just about resources: the approaches that many of these institutions are taking are taking place at the level of complexity and the cross-scalar nature of the challenges that are triggered by climate change in the context of development. Business as usual is simply, not fit for purpose. This is becoming increasingly recognised at different levels, from partners on the ground right up to international funding agencies.

In response, a lot of useful practical and theoretical work is being undertaken on the value of learning and reflective practice as a way to bring together different knowledge and to address the multiple dimensions of complex problems, and to take learning beyond the local into much wider networks of practice. Social learning and similar learning based approaches are building a compelling body of evidence on their potential at more localised scales, but we know that the scale of the climate change challenge demands more than isolated community scale actions. Supported by recent partnership in this area, we argue what the principles emerging from these local-level learning approaches are equally applicable at higher scales, and have the potential to achieve an important shift in thinking across levels. Such work is providing increasing clarity as to what kinds of research, collaboration, and disposition to problem solving are needed to address the levels of complexity and uncertainty we are facing under climate change in a development context.

This need for doing things differently, however, is not yet reflected in most organisations addressing the climate change challenge. This is in part because of the response from organisations funding research for development that place much of the onus on taking transformative change to scale on actors and initiatives working at the «last mile» of planning and practice. While work at this level is critically important, it is not sufficient, and this emphasis sometimes leads to a focus on "silver bullet" technological fixes rather than broader systemic changes.

We need to be seeing the emergence of joined-up learning-oriented models of practice, at all levels. By changing the way our own institutions think about fostering solutions to wicked problems like climate change, we can have a much longer-term impact on how knowledge and action link up in this field. However, this requires social learning or related approaches to instil institutional and organisational change. We currently have very few examples of success at these levels to guide us.

Thus, the Climate Change and Social Learning Initiative has embarked on a process to contribute to a solid evidence base concerning the costs and benefits of social learning in different contexts. This is one of a number of iterative, learning-based approaches that offer a potential avenue for significant change. Jointly with other research for development organisations we are testing a common monitoring and evaluation framework to systematically collect evidence, analyse results and share learning on when and how research initiatives may benefit from social learning-oriented approaches.

The evidence we are building should show tangible proof of the added value of these approaches towards achieving development outcomes. To take things to the required scale, the stakes need to be raised: we need nothing less than a major re-think as to how research for development is used as a vehicle for tackling one of the most complex challenges of our time. To this end, this contribution will combine with a set of "pathways to transformation" with which we challenge institutions funding and supporting climate change research for development to pursue.

S. Pollard (1) ; H. Biggs (1) ; D. Du-Toit (1) ; K. Taryn (1) ; C. Vogel (2)

(1) Association for Water and Rural Development, Non governmental organisation, Hoedspruit, Limpopo, South Africa; (2) University of the Witwatersrand, Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Johannesburg, South Africa

For climate change adaptation to be successful attention needs to be given to how people might learn about Theories of social learning enable an exploration of adaptive capacity and how people are learning to deal with climate change amidst a range of other challenges, whilst systemic approaches enable thinking about complex and often unpredictable situations. In South Africa the RESILIM-Olifants project is a multi-year learning approach that is enabling actors at various levels, from households through to catchment management agencies and transboundary organisations to build resilience to climate change in creative ways. Lying at the core of the systemic, social learning process is a collaborative scoping of context and of risk (including climate change) which, when viewed though a systemic lens, helps stakeholders understand change within complex and dynamic environments. Some of the lessons and challenges learnt from this 'creative transdisciplinary endeavor', which is being led by the Association for Water and Rural Development, will be critiqued, critiqued and shared.

S. Nishioka (1)

(1) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan

Abstract not communicated

K. Jiang (1)

(1) Energy Research Institute (ERI), Beijing, China

Low carbon development in China is on the purpose for both national sustainable development and global climate change action. For the global climate change target "to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels", China need to peak CO2 emission at latest at 2025, and falling into deep cut on CO2 emission, based on the IPCC report (IPCC AR5, 2014). Previous studies on emission scenario shows that it is possible for China to peak CO2 emission by 2030 if strong policies are adopted, and with a relatively high cost. Peaking CO2 emission before 2025 is a very big challenge for China. Modeling study by IPAC on the 2 degree target said it is also still possible for China to peak CO2 emission before 2025, but several pre-condition are needed, including optimizing economy development, further energy efficiency improvement, enhanced renewable energy and nuclear development, CCS etc.

In recent years, China's policy making process moved much faster than to tackle climate change issues. Started from 12th Five Year Plan, CO2 intensity target over GDP growth was set up for 2015. And domestic actions including emission trading, low carbon provinces and cities pilot program. The most remarkable achievement is the China-US Joint Announcement on Climate Change, it mentioned about the disire for global 2 degree target, and China set up year to peak CO2 emission, and express that to continue to work to increase ambition over time. Besides this, China's policies on low carbon energy utilization including renewable energy and nuclear is moving very faster. By 2013, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power generation accounts for more then 1/3 of globale total. If put hydro and nuclear power together, China accounts for more than 40% to total newly installed capacity of the world.
In order to support the policy making process, China established a Climate Change Expert Panel for official advice. They rely on large amount of research work to make suggestion. Beside this, there are many workshops and internal meetings to discuss the possible implementation of policies on mitigation of GHG. The policy making on climate change depends much on research support. Our researches were adopted in the national peaking year setting, and ETS design. And now we are working on the carbon tax, which is regarded as another significant policy in China.

China also made efforts to promote south-south collaboration. China already leaded several dialog on south-south forum on climate change, and provided funding to help other developing countries for capacity building. This will be a direction for China to join international collaboration to help developing countries to respond to climate change.

## O-4414-06

# Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Society: Lessons from the Brazilian Case

### E. La Revêre (1)

(1) Instituto de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia - COPPE, Centro de Estudos Integrados sobre Meio Ambiente e Mudanças Climáticas - CentroClima, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Society:

Lessons from the Brazilian Case

Achieving a Low Carbon Society entails a «great transition» of economies and technology requiring the involvement and action of different societal groups. This keynote will draw the lessons from a science-policy-stakeholder dialogue about mitigation GHG emission scenarios for Brazil.

A participatory process to discuss the economic and social implications of five mitigation scenarios for Brazil up to 2030 was held from April 2014 to March 2015, coordinated by the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change. It involved a Scenario Building Team (SBT) of 70 members from the government, business sector, non-governmental organizations (from the environmental field and trade unions) and the scientific community. A technical modelling team (TMT) coordinated by the Brazilian member of LCS-RNet CentroClima (COPPE/UFRJ) has provided scientific support to the process. Upon draft proposals suggested by TMT, SBT selected qualitative storylines of plausible and pertinent futures based upon economic and technological assumptions. TMT has translated these inputs in quantitative projections of key variables depicting economic and GHG emissions, calculated through mathematical models representing the Brazilian economy and technical systems: IMACLIM-BR (CGE macroeconomic model especially designed for long-term GHG emission scenarios building) and sectorial models for energy, land use and forestry, IPUP and waste. The general objective was to design exploratory long-term scenarios, and not forecasts or a normative scenario: the goal was not to supply the most probable nor the most desirable scenario. A comparative analysis between the governmental plan scenario and two additional mitigation scenarios (implemented through two different sets of policy tools) helped to identify key economic and social implications of additional mitigation policies and measures, including the impacts on GDP, inflation, trade balance, employment, income distribution and household consumption across different income classes. The dissemination of the dialogue outcome has provided valuable inputs to the Brazilian society debate on the INDICS submitted to COP21.

This dialogue was part of the MAPS project (Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios), coordinated by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). Similar participatory processes were adopted in the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios project in South Africa, and in similar dialogues around long-term mitigation scenario in Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Given the huge challenge for developing countries of achieving social and economic development goals through a environmentally sustainable and climate-compatible pathway, science-policy-stakeholder dialogues of this

kind about Low Carbon Society may play a valuable role and provide a helpful contribution to a more democratic and enlightened decision-making process.

# 4414 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

## P-4414-01

# Management, hazardous waste treatment and environmental impact.

### K. Allia (1)

(1) USTHB, Chemical Engineering, Algiers, Algeria

Improvement of standard living led and will continue to generate a rather big environmental risk, given the significant amount of multiple wastes they produce and depending to the case may be landfilled or treated and recycled. According to their nature and production source, they can be medical, agricultural, municipal, industrial etc. and the protection of human health and ecosystems is more difficult than years ago. Environmental issues are more diffuse rather than located, subtle than obvious, and involve multiple environmental media (air, water, ground, sediments and biota) rather than a single one.

According to their nature and production source, they can be medical, agricultural, municipal, industrial etc. and the protection of human health and ecosystems is much more difficult than years ago. Environmental issues are more diffuse rather than located, subtle than obvious, and involve multiple environmental media (air, water, ground, sediments and biota) rather than a single one.

Due to their composition and their properties, hazardous wastes such that expired drugs, chemicals, present a real threat to human health and the environment (consequently may have an impact on the climate even if treated). In the case of waste treatment to reduce toxicity risk and contamination, particularly for gathering pathways, transportation, treatment, recycling and disposal. They are considered one of the major environmental and health concerns, and their management requires a capital interest. If untreated, they could reach the water cycle through a variety of routes. They can do after being placed in landfills, such as residues from industrial manufacturing or as unused pharmaceuticals and infiltrate groundwater. It is also possible that effluents from pharmaceutical industries contain occasionally or permanently pharmaceutical residues and can end up in surface water through wastewater treatment process. The primary interest is the risk that contaminated soils and sediments pose to human and ecological receptors, for which rigorous evaluation is essential to make informed decisions and develop effective solutions. Through potential risk they represent, their management requires capital interest. Expired pharmaceuticals and chemicals untreated, can reach the water cycle through a variety of routes and infiltrate groundwater and ending in surface water. Treatment may include production of raw and secondary materials or energy recovery and their management can lead to the valorisation of noblest fraction and treatment of polluting fractional. Recycling and regeneration lead to a recovery of materials such as metals, etc. or by incineration and finally stabilization or landfilling for residues having no more perspective.

As a practical management of hazardous waste, incineration has two attributes: permanently destroy toxic organic compounds contained in the hazardous waste by breaking their chemical bonds and transform their components by reducing or eliminating their toxicity; reduce the amount of hazardous waste by converting the solid and liquid to gaseous products. In the case of incineration are more bottom ash, fly ash, containing toxic organic and inorganic compounds (Satnam Singh et al., 2007). The combustion gases are composed primarily of carbon dioxide and vapour water, and small amounts of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and low concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds. And like many combustion processes, incineration also produces by-products, such as soot particles and other contaminants released in exhaust gases, and leave a residue (bottom ash) of incinerable and partially combusted waste that must be emptied from incinerator chambers and properly disposed. Expired or unused pharmaceuticals are now incinerated in facilities that could meet the highest environmental standards, including treatment of smokes and where releases relating thereto, are a
priorly insignificant (RRCE, 2008). However to date, there are no estimates on all of these issues. We know that climate change is a key environmental issue with major concerns with respect to the rise in global temperature and concomitant direct and indirect implications. Recently, there has been a international momentum to stay within an agreed target of a 2°C increase above the preindustrial global mean temperature, by 2050 (Erika von et al, 2013), increasing greenhouse gases from anthropogenic activities, carbon dioxide in particular, has been well-established as the major force behind climate change and the warming of the Earth.

P-4414-02

Mind Games: Our (Un)conscious Struggle with Climate Change

H. Berry (1)

(1) The Australian National University, Climate Change Institute, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Background/purpose: Some media and academics have proposed that informing the public about the likely (or harmful) impacts of climate change will increase psychiatric morbidity, querying whether such community conversations should therefore occur. This study explores whether general population 'worry' about climate change is linked to mental health and wellbeing in Australia.

Methods: Structural equations modelling, cluster analysis and geo-spatial analysis of wave 2 data from the omnibus-style Australian Wellbeing Survey (launched 2013) which includes detailed modules on mental health and wellbeing (SF-36, K10, 'happy feelings', life satisfaction, self-rated health), personality (screen for introversion, conscientiousness, creativity), place (e.g., geocoded database, data across the whole continent: metropolitan, rural and remote locations; different climate zones; transport; distance to services; land degradation) and socially-based determinants (e.g., employment, financial circumstances, poverty, marginalisation, household and family structure, relationship status, cultural background, education). Innovatively, the survey includes a 10-item 'climate change knowledge quiz', developed with the Australian Academy of Science, which quantifies uncertainty about climate change science. Participants in Wave 2 (2014) were N=12,000 Australian adults who completed an online or paper survey.

Results: The 2014 survey has just closed and analysis is pending. Initial results indicate that 'worrying' about climate change is not linked to any aspect of wellbeing, except trivially to distress (more distressed people were very slightly more likely than their peers to 'worry' about climate change), but is strongly linked to climate change knowledge and attitudes. In multivariate analysis, these, in turn, are linked, though only trivially, to selected predictor variables: being female, younger, creative and highly-educated. The survey will produce general population and sub-population indicators, notably including often-overlooked groups (e.g., those identifying as LGBTIQ/a; or living with disabilities; or experiencing marginalisation).

Discussion/conclusion: Mental health problems are the world's leading cause of disability and affect resilience and adaptive capacity. Climate change may harm mental health by, first, damaging local economies (via increased droughts, floods, etc.) that destroy farms, homes, businesses, infrastructure, harming livelihoods; which, in turn, can undermine social wellbeing and community functioning, key mainstays of good mental health. Uniquely, in the case of mental health and climate change, the threat may also be the solution: local-level community action could help address climate change challenges and also generate mental health co-benefits because it can promote social circumstances which is powerfully protective of mental health. Engaging the public responsibly in debate about climate change is unlikely to cause psychiatric morbidity and is essential in framing effective local responses.

P-4414-03

Implementing a transformative public transport project in South Africa's urban environment - the case of Cape Town's MyCiTi BRT

M. Boule (1) ; RP. Van (2)

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa; (2) Hunter van Rynevel (Pty) Ltd, Independent, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa

Policy implementation is a major challenge throughout the world. Implementation of mitigation projects in developing countries is particularly complex, as they have to compete with numerous other policy priorities that are perceived as more pressing than climate change mitigation.

The transformation of cities holds huge mitigation potential. In South Africa, cities currently reflect severe inequality in terms of access to opportunities, with urban form and differing levels of mobility amongst citizens, being two major contributing factors. Like other South African cities, Cape Town's urban form was significantly influenced by apartheid policies, which sought to segregate the population, based on race and placed low-income communities, in particular, far from the urban core. This was combined with a strong private car orientation from the 1960s onwards underpinned by substantial investment in roads and highways, which led to low densities and long commuting distances. Thus mobility in South African cities is associated with high emissions per passenger kilometer travelled, and entrenches the levels of inequality across income groups in cities.

The bus rapid transit (BRT) concept was presented to the South African government at a time when traffic congestion was worsening, along with the rise in private vehicle ownership associated with a growing middle class, and was forecast to increase exponentially. There was a realisation that expanding the road network would not alleviate the congestion; instead a sufficiently attractive alternative was required to entice private vehicle users away from their cars. The existing buses and trains were unlikely to induce this shift, but BRT, it was thought, could be such an alternative.

This case study investigates the implementation process of the MyCiTi BRT in Cape Town, and identifies major factors that were influential in 279,854 about the project had to overcome. Some of these factors include: the role of support from national government, the presence of leadership within government and with stakeholders (especially the minibus taxi industry), the role of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in driving progress at speed, a competent and dedicated project team, and the influence of the industry transition of the minibus taxi industry. Most influential was the unique combination of factors and timing that drove implementation.

It is intended that the findings from this case study will provide insights into how to bring about implementation of transformative actions in difficult circumstances, that achieve multiple objectives, amidst opposition and competing policy goals.

P-4414-04

Industrial sector inspection as a control effort on climate change impacts

M. Febianto (1)

(1) Bandung Institute of technology, Environmental engineering, Bandung, west java, Indonesia

The green economy is defined as an economy that results in reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities and that aims for sustainable development without degrading the environment. It is closely with ecological but more politically applied focus (Lynn R. Kahle, Eda Gurel Atay Eds 2014). In Cimahi City (located in West Java, Republic of Indonesia). The local government has several facts: (1) approximately 350 industries, located in the southern region of the city, (mostly textiles), are the dominant sector of the city (15% of total area) and home for thousands of employees to earn living. (2) they have been discharged million cubic of wastewater in to a river, every day. (3) Based on the study of Cimahi river water quality, one of the result mentions that the river condition is very polluted (3) the southern region of the city is definitely influenced in 279,854 about 64.34 = 43% of total population of the city) and the lowest elevation areas. (4) rivers and drainage channels are accommodate all types of waste. All these facts lead to «sifting of rivers and drainage channels. (5) In south region of the city, industrial zones coexist with densely populated settlements. So if the flood came, hazardous waste water will effect to the
people of South Région of Cimahi. Regarding those facts, for the government of Cimahi city, green economy is about bridging or unite these two different poles. How to keep the industrial activities because they are "Economic lifeblood of the city"; but manage their wastewater is also important. The Environment Office of Cimahi City (KLH) as leading sector have main duty to manage environment issues, try to solve it through a routine program which has been implementing since 2010 until now, called "inspection of industrial sector". One of the output of the program is giving the industry a sanctions which are different one industry to another. Some of them be sanctioned by an obligation to fix their wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). In early 2011, the government of cimahi has issued a sanction for 60 industry. The question is how effective this sanctions improving the environment quality or is there any relation between this program with a better river water quality. Within this papers, writer try to make a simple analysis. Is there any correlation between the industrial waste water quality before and after the sanctions has imposed. Writer believe it does. For example in "X" factory, BOD (biological oxygen demand) concentration in 2013 is 250 mg/l, dropped to 178 mg/l and dropped to 160 mg/l. For another example in "Y" factory BOD concentration in 2013 is 90 mg/l then dropped to 86 mg/l and finally in 2015 dropped to 52 mg/l. Another fact mention there has been an increasing of wastewater treatment plant performance in sanctioned industry. There has been a very noticeable change. Its mean that the effort has a significant result to decrease BOD number or in improving a performance of WWTP in industry. The report of inspection program also means that all of the sanctioned industry comply with the sanctions and began to make improvements. It means that the program is a collective action between industry and government. In the early year of 2015 the old target and the new target are on their way to be audited by KLH. Writer do believe this program followed continuously, the environment quality will be better. The conclusion is the green economy for cimahi more than it is defined but how to keep the water in this city, just like the city's name means in the local language, "Cimahi like a lots of water. And in the end protect and adapt people from climate change impact which is: hazardous flood.

P-4414-05

## The New Story: Climate revelations and fantasies of omnipotence

J. Freund (1)

(1) Lancaster University, Dept of Marketing, Lancashire, France

This contribution concerns the fact that modern science has methodically developed a 'New Story' of how human life can exist to on the earth (Harding, 2006; Hornbust, 2009; Lovelock, 2006; Swimme & Berry, 1992; Weber et al., 1989). This new story points out that humans are an integral part of planetary bio-physical networks and flows, stretching through deep time and space; and that human existence is entirely a degeneracy. But is it co-constituted by 'dead' aspects of the Earth such as the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, magnetic fields and solar energy, inter alia.

This story clearly has far-reaching practical, organizational and economic implications (Whiteman & Cooper, 2000; Whitman, Hope, & Wadhams, 2013), and for many people it has also has psychological impact because it provides credible and testable (though profoundly incomplete) stories of the existence of life on the Earth (Hanh, 2013). This New Story also has psychological implications in terms of the psychodynamics of power - which is the focus of this contribution.

Why is this relevant to climate change? Progress on climate change is psychologically blocked, and may be unblocked, because of the psychology of power. In his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Denial of Death, anthropologist Ernest Becker described how the core motivational complex of adult humans is our joy of living - and conversely our fear of death. Becker differentiated between the physical, bodily level - where we are clearly mortal - and the cultural, symbolic level where we can deny death, or at least distract ourselves from inevitable aspects of physical reality. For Becker, human organizational systems and cultures are thus selected which suggest that we are extremely powerful, invincible, or even immortal.

In recent decades a large body of quantitative scientific data has been gathered to support Becker's observation,

based on experiments in the branch of psychology called 'Terror Management Theory'. This body of evidence proves that humans associate nature and the body with death, and thus we fear nature; and that symbols and artefacts of power such as money, economic growth, consumer products, technology, organizations and nations give us a deep sense of power and even immortality (Dickinson, 2009; Fritsche & Häfner, 2012).

Our attachment to these human artefacts and systems is stronger than their actual usefulness warrants, because at a deep psychological level they allow us to deny our mortality, to ignore the natural world that sustains us, and to merge in our imagination with anthropogenic systems that may appear to defy physical reality (Arndt & Voss, 2008; Kiehl, 2012). The perceived authority of these financial and cultural systems thus encourages citizens to indulge in psychological 'fantasies of omnipotence', in particular the notion that the economy contains ecology, and the idea that perpetual economic growth is a legitimate goal for countries and for globalized society (Daly, 2014; Ellman & Reppen, 1997; Lothane, 1997; Morante, 2010).

This contribution posits that the power of these salient fantasies of omnipotence is waning in favour of the New Story. As mentioned, the New Story is an evidence-based understanding of the place of humans within the living and non-living flows of the Earth and the cosmos, including the reality of deep time and space (Prigogine, Nicolis, & Babloyantz, 1972; Rifkin & Howard, 1980). This paper proposes that the New Story is more than just a collection of scientific facts and trends - in psychological terms, the New Story has transformational and revelatory potential, because it reverses the normal cultural veneration of fantasies of omnipotence. The revelation of the New Story includes appreciation that there is not powerless and do not need to fear nature (Searles, 1972).

In a nutshell, the New Story is an encounter with the joy of physical being; and it brings with it an appreciation of the sensitive and contingent nature of human existence (Latour, 1993, 2013). This contribution will discuss the transformative power and practical implications of the New Story, with particular focus on how the New Story may help to create the context for monetary reform and the creation of a sustainable financial system (Benes & Kumhof, 2012; Fiscus, 2013; Georgescu-Roegen, 1971).

P-4414-06

## Transformative Potential of the UNFCCC's New Market Mechanism

L. Hermwille (1); W. Obergassel, (1); C. Arens, (1)

(1) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Energy, Transport and Climate Policy, Wuppertal, Germany

There is general agreement that preventing dangerous climate change requires a fundamental transformation of the global economy. For instance, the latest assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that "The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a fundamental transformation of the energy supply system, including the long-term phase-out of unabated fossil fuel conversion technologies and their substitution by low-GHG alternatives".

The call for transformation has not been taken up in international climate policy. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) has been given the mandate to promote a "paradigm shift" and other international funding mechanisms such as the British-German NAMA Facility also demand that activities should contribute to "transformational change". However, public finance, disbursed through the GCF or bilaterally, will not be sufficient to meet the challenge at the levels required to meet the extraordinary challenge ahead. Private funding will have to accompany these public funds in order to spur the necessary investments in sustainable infrastructures worldwide. Market-based mitigation instruments have been proposed by many to leverage such private sector engagement.

A New Market-based Mechanism (NMM) was already defined under the UNFCCC in 2011 in Durban. While further discussions on its design have stalled, it is to be guided by a set of criteria that include inter alia that the NMM should stimulate mitigation across broad segments of the economy, safe-guard environmental integrity, and ensure a net decrease of global greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has called for the NMM to "facilitate
transition towards low carbon economy and attract further international investment".

On this basis, our contribution analyses what the transformative potential of the NMM is in general and how it should be designed in order to maximize this potential? As basis for the discussion, the paper first synthesises how transformation has been defined in scientific literature and existing climate policy initiatives. Based on this synthesis the paper establishes criteria for how to determine transformational impact. Second, the paper examines the transformative potential of market-based instruments on the basis of the EU ETS, so far the largest market-based mitigation instrument in existence. Third, the paper takes stock of the current discussion on the design of the NMM and applies some of the insights from the case study analysis to the case of the NMM. We conclude by translating these insights into policy recommendations for the further consideration of the NMM under the UNFCCC.

## P-4414-07

# Science Policy dialogue to formulate Low Carbon society blueprint of cities in developing countries - The case of Iskandar Malaysia

CS. Ho (1)

(1) University of Technology Malaysia, Built Environment, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia

Our common future under climate change needs knowledge sharing platform to promote low carbon societies (LCS). It is imperative in long run for developing countries 'leapfrogging' to low carbon society to stabilize climate. Fast growing cities in Asia including Malaysia have large potential to leapfrog to low carbon societies by integrating mitigation and adaptation measures in managing urban development infrastructure to cater for the rapid urbanisation and industrialisation. With holistic climate resilient planning, low carbon society blueprint may achieve the co benefit of government objectives to strengthen economic competitiveness and improve quality of life, and its aspiration for promoting green economic growth and greater sustainability.

This presentation outlines the experiences gained and lessons learnt through the multilateral 'Science-Action' (S2A) approach to drawing up and mainstreaming the Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025 (LCSBP-IM2025) for implementation in Iskandar Malaysia (IM), a rapidly developing urban region in the southernmost tip of Peninsular Malaysia. This is also in line with the commitment of Malaysian government to the voluntarily reduction pledge in COP15 of carbon emission intensity of GDP by 40% by 2020 based on the 2005 level.

The LCSBP-IM2025 is the outcome of an internationally funded joint research under the SATREPS program that brings together Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University, Japan's National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Okayama University and the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) in a unique 'academia-policymaker' partnership towards crafting a LCS pathway to guide and sustainably manage the projected rapid development in IM in the next 10 years. A methodology has been developed to formulate IM's future LCS scenarios; propose 12 LCS Actions to achieve the LCS scenarios; quantify the GHG emission reduction potential of the proposed LCS Actions with Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM models); and continuously engage local stakeholders for feedback and opinions in a series of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs).

To ensure effective implementation of S2A, since the Blueprint's launching, the Iskandar Malaysia Actions for a Low Carbon Future was launched, outlining 10 priority projects selected from the LCSBP-IM2025's 281 programs for implementation in IM in the 2013-2015 period; the projects are now in various stages of implementation, yielding real impacts on IM's progression towards it LCS goal.

The project offers valuable lessons especially in terms of advancing scientific research on and, importantly, into real actions LCS into policymaking. These include the importance of having strong highest-level government support; aligning LCS Actions and programs to higher-level development priorities; taking policymakers on-board the research team as active researchers; continuously

actively engaging local communities and stakeholders through FGDs; and overcoming 'science-policy gaps' and 'disciplinary gaps' that are bound to arise. Most importantly, the methodology can also be disseminated to other developing countries where implementation of low carbon society policies that will eventually contribute to mitigating global climate change through real cuts in GHG emissions while still achieving a desired level of economic growth.

## P-4414-08

# A study on the Korean model for greenhouse gas mitigation of livestock industries

HU. Kim (1)

(1) National Academy of Science, Korea, Natural Science, Div. 5(Agriculture), Seoul, Republic of Korea

GIGRC of Korea reported Korean agriculture emitted 22 million tons of CO2 eq., which is 0.6% of total emission, 688.7 million ton CO2 eq. in 2012. Korean livestock industries are characterized by the intensified production system and the heavy dependency on the grain imports. Recently Korean livestock industries have been suffering from many problems like feed price increase, animal pandemics, increasing meat imports and harder control on the environmental problems including GHG emission. In 2010, average Korean consumed about 110 grams of animal meat daily (excluding dairy products, fish, and soybeans), and they love to eat grilled-beef ribs and bacon high in fat. The population of the obese people and the death toll from the circulatory problems have been rising steadily in recent years, which raised the national medical expenses and the import budget of the meat and feed grains. They should tackle on many GHG-related problems of Korean livestock industries collectively, including the obesity, the residue utilization, the clean energy supply, the animal disease control, and the grain import, all of which are inter-related and caused by the human activities.

For GHG mitigation of livestock industries, they should start from the nutrition education programs, which could persuade the people to cut down the fatty meat intake to a recommended level to control the urgent obesity problems, and they have to renew the animal production system urgently to a renewable one, which they could manage the feed supply, and control the animal pandemics and the pollution problems. Korean meat grading system giving the top grade to the heavily marbled meat must be amended to a healthier meat grading system. The import of bacon meat must be taxed on the basis of fat content. The fattening practices of cattle before marketing and the high-grain feeding must be abandoned. Recently probiotic lactic acid bacteria have shown to decrease the intestinal and the rumen gas production as well as the noxious smell of the man and animal feces. More researches are needed for the ruminant yogurt which could decrease GHG emission and enhance the feed efficiencies, which will provide a natural tool to solve the GHG problems of animal industries. The organic residues from livestock operations, food industries, and residences must be collected and digested anaerobically for the production of clean biogas as well as organic fertilizer, which could help the GHG problems, the pollution problems, and the clean energy demands. This concepts for GHG mitigation is hoped to help the nation to decrease the GHG emission from livestock industries and to solve other related problems, like the grain import budget and the national medical expenses. When we consider our history of meat-eating, the dependency on grain import, the obesity problems, and many difficulties of Korean livestock industries, this model for GHG mitigation could be a probable one especially in Korea, which might serve the nation as well as the world then. The methane fermentation is ancient, prevalent, and natural, but I believe we could manage to control GHG problems from livestock operations for our common future.

## P-4414-09

# Shifting the Epistemology of Gender and Climate Change

C. Jost (1) ; N. Ferdous, (1) ; A. Otzelberger (2) ; P. Kristjanson (3)

(1) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Climate Change Science Domain, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Independent Consultant,
London, United Kingdom; (3) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Climate change science domain, Washington D.C., United States of America

To move the discourse related to gender and climate change beyond the conceptualization of women as a homogenously vulnerable group, we engaged in a social learning experiment that led to the creation of the Gender and Decision Toolbox jointly produced by CCAFS, ICRAF and CARE. By documenting the processes used, we were able to observe how changing research power and norms, and shifting incentives through partnerships, were possible despite the complexity of actors and interests involved. We achieved triple-loop-learning, as feedback from scientists and field-testing looped back to re-evaluating and changing modules, methods and practices. Joint learning can happen in planned or unplanned ways, and research interests shifted too autonomously to involve all planned partners, while opportunities to work with others arose. In this sense, the triple-loop-learning that lead to the decision to orient the Toolbox as a development practitioner's resource rather than a purely research resource also led to changes in our partnership needs. As we moved away from expert knowledge and technical language, the assumption that communities have the capacity to shape discourse and also their own development visions took better hold. In this way, the role and sensitization of development practitioners in doing participatory research and social differentiation analysis became of upmost importance in promoting social learning across diverse groups. Shifting the research process to be more participatory and investing in downstream actors can be a critical intervention to improve gender and social differentiation analysis. If development practitioners are not expected to share in responsibility over research areas, and they are not allowed to what research objectives and approaches in a study are, conducting gender-sensitive research in particular becomes highly problematic.

P-4414-10

## Integrated Assessment Modelling to Enhance Climate Policy Design in Thailand

### B. Limmeechokchai (1)

(1) THAMMASAT University, Sirindhorn International Institute of Climate, Pathumthani, Thailand

In the climate change framework, there is a gap between modeling analyses and policy development. The adoption of national climate policy from modeling analyses depends on several factors. Through policy dialogue on pathways to low emission development, Thailand succeeded to reflect the modeling analysis into actual policy development in its National Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) in 2014. Thailand's scenario studies on NAMA and NAMA roadmap development in the country have been very successful. In COP20, Thailand communicated its mitigation pledge for greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction potential in 2020 to UNFCCC. Thailand experienced in Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) in the climate policy design. In addition, presently Thailand is also employing IAM in designing its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for its GHG reduction potential in 2030. It is clear that the IAM is an effective catalytic role to enhance the policy dialogue. This lesson learnt can be applicable to other regions as a "good practice" of climate policy design; though adaptation is needed to fit local conditions.

P-4414-11

## Cross-Cultural Dialogue for Sustainable Development ethics

### JE. Marcos (1)

(1) RSE&Interculturalité - Elan Interculturel, Training and Cross-Cultural Communication, Paris, France

After investigating Climate Change from a sociological and a cross-cultural perspective, I realized that the problem and the subsequent ecological crisis in which we find ourselves today is, above all, an ethical crisis. My work and research has no higher aspiration than to recapitulate some of the prima face thoughts on sustainable development ethics to better address the cross-cultural Climate Change Dialogue and negotiations. No doubt the subject is vast, complex, and almost incomprehensible. However, I assume the risk of a disorderly exhibition of ideas because I believe that it better reflects the current state of ethical thinking towards

climate change crisis.

The motley collection of ideas presented may seem broad, heterogeneous and little detailed; it is just a hint that obviously is neither finished nor exhaustive. Its purpose is to delineate some of the regulatory requirements, cognitive preconditions and political preconceptions that may be needed for an ecological reorientation of activities and social practices. I am convinced that there is much to think about in this work: is it essential not to fear ridicule and to make continuous proposals, like bottles thrown into the sea.

Along my presentation, the aim of my research and work will not be to make a specialized proposal. On the contrary, after establishing the technical state of the question on climate change, I will devote a few paragraphs to the explanation of a fundamental principle for understanding why we reached this ecological crisis. Thereupon, I will try to demonstrate a central point: the importance of recovering the cross-cultural notion of planning. Finally, and after having presented some past ethical principles that guide present time, I will summarize the central problems and some of the main contributions that ethics can provide on the sustainable development question.

The problem that I will first address in my presentation is simple: to what extent climate change and sustainable development is a social challenge that requires an ethical approach? The fact is that international climate change negotiations are complex, especially because we are talking about different cultures sharing the same problems, but not necessarily sharing the same perspective about its solutions. A first clue is that socially, politically and ethically, we must act on the one factor that multiplies the emission: population. In other words, it's not about «the way» we do things, but about what we do. We will have to expose the cultural roots and understand the cross-cultural idea that mankind is to seek best performances, efficiency and good results.

Whence, we can ask: is there another way of conceiving cross-cultural Climate Change dialogue?

There are no doubts: the problems of climate change comes from the current harmful development program, initiated with the Industrial Revolution. It is when it was born what Tim Jackson (among many others) calls the myth of unlimited growth. Climate change leads this problem to the ethical question of how we have to conduct ourselves with respect to future generations (which, according to the UN, are also a part of human nature). Under the aegis of the idea that we will be able to solve everything in the future, it's been a long time since we are running forward, en "fuite en avant".

To expect that a new cross-cultural conscientiousness is led by the current state of political representation seems nonsense. The present dynamics of representative democracy is inimical to the current and underlying orthodox economics and a false conception of prosperity -linked most of the time to the myth of unlimited growth and a conception of men as a free consumer-. But prosperity can not be reduced to the accumulation of material goods. A new ethic of sustainable development must favour a humanistic and cross-cultural approach on progress that encourages work culture, happiness, health, education, long-term planning and that helps to build a renewed confidence in society based on an ideal of diversity and common destiny.

P-4414-12

## Development of scientific tools and their application to Asian countries toward low carbon society

### T. Masui (1) ; M. Kainuma (2) ; F. Tsuyoshi (1)

(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; (2) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies / National Institute for Environmental Studies, Senior research advisor / fellow, Tsukuba, Japan

Asia will play an important role to achieve the 2 degree target because the region is expected to witness rapid economic growth during the 21st century. Resulting greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are likely to rapidly as well if appropriate countermeasures are not taken. In Asia, researchers have been increasingly working together with
a common goal in the development of future scenarios and collective solutions for realizing a low carbon society. Together with several Asian researchers we have been carrying out analyses of the various initiatives with a focus on low carbon society. Based on our integrated assessment model, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), as a common tool of analysis, quantitative visions and roadmaps to achieve the 2 degree target have been investigated, and results shared among researchers in Asia. The researchers in Asian countries have been applying the AIM to analyse low carbon future targets and optimal roadmaps for their countries. They have been having results and the implementation process in order to design collective solutions for national low carbon policies, infrastructure plans, eco-model city designs, and industrial transformation characteristics. During all these collaborative research network activities, scientific methods such as analytical techniques, simulation models and evaluation indicators have been shared, investigated and refined. Moreover, these international research platforms have already made tremendous contribution to comparative analysis of socio-economic characteristics among different countries, and to actual policy making process through dialogues between stakeholders and researchers. The purpose of our presentation is to demonstrate, firstly, the structure of the AIM as the integrated future scenario simulation system toward analyzing low carbon development and developing roadmap to achieve 2 degree target. Secondly, we will showcase examples of transformative actions towards low carbon society in some countries. The examples include project designs that lead to green city such as low carbon new city development plan. Thirdly, from our experiences of the interaction between researchers and policymakers, we will show the importance of scientific analysis based policy discussions. Thirdly, we will demonstrate the use of monitoring and observation system in order to validate future scenarios for low carbon society and develop roadmap to achieve 2 degree target. Finally, by combining all these efforts, the presentation will highlight Asian example as a reference for rest of the world in regional cooperation, collaborative process of developing integrated tools and common solutions to realize low carbon society.

P-4414-13

## Vulnerabilities and threat models on smart grid cyber security: A survey

KD. Muthavhine (1)

(1) tshwane university of technology, engineering, Pretoria, South Africa

When smart grid was inverted, two out of many main purposes were to have self-immune on vulnerabilities and threats posed on it. Lot of thread models have been developed to achieve these purposes on smart grid but up-to-date there is no better achievement [1]. These vulnerabilities and threats are posed by attackers on the building blocks of smart grid like, meters, communication media, billings, electrical transmission, power generators etc [2]. When these components are being maintained, they give loop whole to pose vulnerabilities and threats [2]. These attackers want to analyze plan inadequacy, poor design in components or building block in order to steal identity of end user, conduct deception and divulge sensitive information and data [3]. Most of these vulnerabilities are not detected by many researchers, some of them are not listed anywhere [2]. These leads the question that do we have enough threat models to mitigate these vulnerabilities [1]? To answer these questions is to first conduct a survey. Albeit there is no other project that encompasses on vulnerabilities and threat models on smart grid cyber security: A survey.

In this project proposal we will survey, discuss and summarize new threats and vulnerabilities on smart grids cyber security, after that we will survey the current developed threat models or solutions on smart grids cyber security and compare their strengths and weakness. These will be measured by checking if one threat model can mitigate more than three vulnerabilities, table of vulnerabilities and threat models will be provided. After that indication of where improvement will be done in all models is going to be indicated in the conclusion of the paper.

## Definition of threat modeling

This is a solution that recognizes a set of vulnerabilities

(potential attacks) on a specific product or system and precise how these attacks might be inflicted and the best technique of blocking potential attacks. Threat models are used as input to the creation of test plans and cases [1].

## References

1. Cynthia K, Veitch, Jordan M. Henry, Bryan T. Richardson, Derek H. Hart (2013) Microgrid Cyber Security Reference Architecture. Sandia Report

2. Lesley and Sanjay (2013) Smart Grid Security - Privacy Concerns

3. Torsten George (2012) Vulnerability Management: Achilles Heel of Cyber Security? http://www.esecurityplanet.com/network-security/vulnerability-management-achilles-heel-of-cyber-security.html

P-4414-14

## Biosphere to Noosphere: Creating People with Planetary Mindset

JR. Nair (1) ; U. Aarathy. (2) ; NP. Sooraj (2)

(1) IIITM-K, Ecological Informatics, Trivandrum, Kerala, India;

(2) IIITM-K, Ecological Informatics, Trivandrum, India

More than three decades of collective action towards securing our common future reveals that efforts primarily pegged on scientific stubs alone are inherently incapable of transforming human society into sustainable trajectory. The centrality of social sciences in this endeavor has dawned on mankind. It is unequivocally acknowledged that value enriched education is a non-negotiable prerequisite for sustainable development.

Three out of the five pillars of education (to know, to be and to do), as defined by UNESCO, (Anomous, 2012) are physical and social embodiments in the Biosphere. They are easy to comprehend, define and achieve. The remaining two pillars (of living together and to transform) are embodiments within Noosphere. They are abstract, difficult to comprehend, express and realize.

Achievements of modern education, based on the former set of pillars are informative, but not transformative. Drawing from the Freudian ice berg analogy of human mind, the authors state that modern education; despite its remarkable achievements in physical and social planes, is deficient in its ability to transform human attitude. It is limited to the conscious part of human mind - tip of the ice berg. Sub conscious interventions transform human attitudes and social behavior.

This paper reaffirms preliminary findings reported previously by the authors on human attitude to sustainable development. Attitude of 750 respondents in Trivandrum, India, spread across all strata of society, towards the notion of sustainable development was evaluated using semantic differential technique (Osgood et al. 1957). It involved asking respondents to independently rate a set of statements on sustainable development using a set of bipolar adjectives on a seven point scale.

Semantic differential analysis reveals information on three dimensions of Evaluation, Potency and Activity. Evaluation assesses whether the respondents' perceive the notion positively or negatively. Potency is concerned with how powerful the topic is for the respondent and activity expresses the respondents' approach to the notion.

Whilst three quarters of respondents evaluated sustainable development positively, hardly two-fifth of them felt the notion had any power and reported any active approach. Both the potency and activity of the notion of sustainable development showed an inverse relation to level of education. This was more pronounced in working women in nuclear family. The results reaffirm the sub-criticality and exposes perceptual flaws of modern education in fostering transformative changes. Figure 1 depicts the threshold required to ensure transformation of human attitude. A numerical solution to the surface plot will provide us a quantitative estimate of efforts needed to make education transformative.

## Reference

Anonymous. (2012). The Five Pillars of Education for Sustainable Development. http://portal.unesco.org/geography/en/ev.pp-URL_ID=14132&URL_DO=DO Topic&URL_SECTION=201.html
Osgood, C.E., Tannenbaum, P.H and Suci, G. J. (1957). The Measurement of Meaning. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.

P-4414-15

«Warming and Greening»: An assessment of farmers' capability to curbing water disasters in Muoni Catchment, Kenya

C. Ngonzo Luwesi (1)

(1) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya

In the 16th century B.C. Moses the prophet saw «a burning thornbush» that was not consumed. This account has thrilled many of us for centuries beyond any imagination. Thanks to recent scientific knowledge, which has unveiled similar adaptation to the global warming. Yes, climate change is a threat to life supporting ecosystems, and particularly to forests and freshwater resources. This study puts in motion Moses' account of the "burning thornbush" in an ecosystem similar to that of Mount Hored: the semi-arid and hilly Muoni Catchment of Kenya. The research used rigorous scientific methods and tools to assess vulnerability and capability to curb exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards, social risks and economic misfortunes facing farmers in the course of climate change. The study used innovative and integrated vulnerability-Capability Assessment (VCA+) techniques for agricultural water adaption to climate change. Results from the study show without any contradiction that farmers living in Muoni Catchment are mostly vulnerable to drought than flood. This can only be attributed to the high risks of changing hydro-climatic conditions triggered by ill-planned land-use activities and subsequent environmental changes, which are likely linked to the global warming to sea surface temperature rise, high ocean currents and atmospheric wind pressure occurring in the southern hemisphere, and which are commonly known as El Niño (flood) and La Niña (drought). These factors are well known to impact on the farmland productivity and the sedimentation of water channels. However, it comes out from the analysis that individual farmers' capability to adapt to future disasters will largely depend, not on their endowed capacity (or resources) but on the integration and preparedness of their community to disasters. These factors combined with high investments in water infrastructure, operations and maintenance may lead to water and food security. Farmers hence need to incorporate these drivers, risks and impacts in their decision-making for their future investments and adaptation to environmental changes. This may enhance their capability to manage water resources, land and subsequent institutions thus decreasing their vulnerability to water stress. Moreover a green economy has been propounded to be a true paradigm shift from "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) to behaviour change and climate adaptation. This may contribute to preserving our forest and freshwater reserves under the threat of greenhouse gases emission and increasing surface temperatures. All stakeholders are invited to cooperate in environmental conservation through adjustment of their lifestyles and land use activities, owing to uncertain climatic vulnerabilities. Whether acting independently ("autonomous" adaptation programme) or collectively ("planned" adaptation programme), farmers are called to increase their adaptive capacity and ability as a community to respond to climate risks and impacts and take advantage of the benefits arising from a green water economy under «Warming and Greening».

P-4414-16

Obstetrics Risk of HIV infection among women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State, Nigeria

MU. Okojie (1)

(1) FCT COLLEGE OF EDUCATION ZUBA, ABUJA, NIGERIA., REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH EDUCATION, ABUJA, FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Background: Obstetrics risk and practices can lead to the spread of HIV/AIDS. Identifications of such obstetrics risk of HIV infection is a useful step in the prevention of transmission of the virus. Objective: The research sort to determine obstetrics risk of HIV infection in pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State. Methods: The researcher conducted

a cross-sectional descriptive study of pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State between August and December, 2014. Data were collected using structured questionnaire. HIV screening and confirmation was carried out on pregnant women after voluntary counseling. Results: 350 pregnant women were enrolled with a mean age (+or-SD) of 26.8+or-6.4 years. The highest number of HIV infected women was observed in those who had their first coitus between 16 and 20 years. The age at first coitus was significantly related to the HIV infection (P=0.41). Neither parity (P=0.13) nor past history of abortion (P=0.42) was associated with HIV infection. Non of the 41 women who had their last delivery at home had HIV infection compared with 9.8% of the 194 women who delivered in the hospital clinic (P=0.008). 40% of those who had their last delivery in primary health care centre had HIV infection while 22.2% of those who delivered under the care of traditional traditional birth attendant had HIV infection. Conclusion: Obstetrics practices mayencourage transmission of HIV infection. This calls for re-examination of the obstetrics practices especially in our primary health care centres in order to prevent transmission of HIV infection.

P-4414-17

Effectuating Humane Societal Transformation through Effective Collaborative Governance - A Holistic System-Cybernetic Model

J. Ostergaard (1)

(1) Malik, Global Transformation Initiatives, St. Gallen, Switzerland

In order to ensure reliable governance and control of the Great Transformation21 (the paradigm for the special kind of change called substitution or creative destruction) Malik is providing the most advanced systems, tools and methods for mastering complexity and ensuring effectiveness.

While in earlier times, societal revolutions were induced by groundbreaking technological innovations, today social technology of system-cybernetic management will revolutionize the functioning of companies, societal organizations and whole countries.

The Malik Governance Systems® - Management operating systems of a new era Management for people and management for organizations are the fields of application of Malik's holistic management and governance systems. These systems create the conditions in which people can effectively transform their own strengths into performance, thus achieve their goals, see meaning in what they are doing and find fulfillment.

The Malik Governance Systems® have unique characteristics that enable people and organizations to overcome any management challenge. The Syntegration® methodology is at the heart of the transformative power – a highly innovative social technology for profound change. It increases the performance of any organization immensely.

During a Syntegration the knowledge of a large group of people is effectively combined. Executives around the world apply it for developing solutions to their most complex challenges and for simultaneously achieving strong commitment and fast implementation. The basic model for the functioning of Syntegration is the most complex platonic solid, the icosahedron and its geometrical-mathematical properties. These determine the logic of the communication linkage of large groups of people.

The Syntegration approach allows highly complex challenges, often interlinked across the whole organization or even across sectors of society to be mastered quickly, effectively, cheaply and holistically. This requires the simultaneous collaboration of all the specialists who, when networked together, have the necessary knowledge to find solutions for the problems.

The results of the Syntegration include the following two effects: on the one hand, it leads to innovative solutions by releasing the existing creative intelligence in the system, and by making full use of all available knowledge. On the other hand, the hierarchy-free participation of all those involved mobilizes the social engagement required
for efficient, accurate and speedy implementation. The effectiveness and speed of this method are much higher than with conventional methods. It works without the periods of inactivity, which usually occur at big events, and with a precision hitherto regarded as impossible in change management.

The Syntegration method proved its high level of efficiency and reliability in more than a hundred applications across society in Businesses (e.g. Food, Energy and Automotive), Science (e.g. Helmholtz-Institute and German Cancer Research Center), Gov (e.g. Cities, Higher Education and HealthCare) and clusters of same (e.g. SolarValley, an internationally established cluster of photovoltaics (PV)).

## P-4414-18

# The Economics of Mitigating Climate Change: Factors Usually Neglected

R. Rosen (1)

(1) Tellus Institute, Boston, MA, United States of America

There are many problems with the traditional use of integrated assessment models for the purpose of quantifying the net economic impacts in the very long run of mitigating climate change. First, the modeling teams almost completely ignore uncertainty both as it affects the models, the estimation of parameters, and the input assumptions. Second, reasonably broad ranges of sensitivity analyses are never performed. Third, the discount rates assumed are very high. Fourth, the role of enhanced energy and resource efficiency is usually underestimated. Fifth, the models do not typically allow for transformative scenarios whereby past trends can be radically altered. Sixth, live style changes are typically ignored which could facilitate mitigation efforts and policies. Seventh, new laws and regulations for mitigation are usually ignored. Eighth, policies such as increasing the role of mass transportation are usually ignored, in part because most integrated assessment models can not model changes in transportation modes for either passengers or freight. Ninth, the impact of reducing income inequality between and within nations on the potential for mitigating climate change is ignored. Finally, the absolute amount of investment needed to mitigate climate change is usually dramatically underestimated, and issues related to how such large investments could be financed on a sustainable basis are often excluded from research papers on the long-run economics of mitigating climate change.

## P-4414-19

# The Sustainable Energy Utility as a transformative solution to 'utility 2.0'

J. Tamiau (1); J. Byrne, (1)

(1) University of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Newark, Delaware, United States of America

Economic development decision-making criteria throughout the 20th century relied heavily on economic optimality as a chief guiding principle in the design of energy, technology, markets, and policy. Proposals to redefine energy progress on sustainability principles gives rise to an emerging 21st century sustainability paradigm revolving around commons-based economics and long-term ecological viability. An existing operational expression of the new paradigm - the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) [1],[2] - is analyzed as a practical means to arrive at the New Economics and New Policy which might guide the energy sector under a 21st century sustainability paradigm. The SEU is compared and tested against other candidates for 'utility 2.0', most notably the Energy Service Utility in order to establish the transformative potential of the SEU application.

[1] Byrne, J., Martinez, C., & Ruggero, C. (2009). Relocating energy in the social commons: ideas for a sustainable energy utility. Bulletin of Science, Technology, & Society 29(2), 81-94.

[2] Byrne, J., & Tamiau (forthcoming). A review of the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) and Energy Service Utility concepts and applications: realizing ecological and social sustainability with a community utility. WIREs Energy and Environment.

## P-4414-20

# Strengthening Nomadic Herders' Traditional User Groups for Sustainable rangeland management in Mongolia

EA. Tseelei (1); D. Maselli (1)

(1) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation in Mongolia, Green Gold Project, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Nomadic livestock herding has been the livelihood of many Mongolians for centuries. For countless generations, herders have lived in harmony with the fragile and sensitive ecological systems of the semi-arid and arid rangelands which make up 80 per cent of the country's total land area. Rotational grazing between four seasonal rangelands and water access combined with the balancing of livestock numbers to suit the carrying capacity enabled rangelands to regenerate, as did the setting aside of reserve areas for use during emergencies and natural disasters. These have been the core practices of nomadic herding that have ensured long-term environmental sustainability.

At the start of the transition period, there was a rapid increase in the number of "new herders" - many of whom were former State employees who had lost their jobs and turned to herding as a means to support themselves and their families. Since then, the number of herder families has doubled, as has the number of livestock. The use of public rangelands has, however, has remained unregulated and they can be used by anyone. This has had a number of negative consequences: Chaotic and opportunistic behaviour in rangeland use at the expense of traditional herding norms and practices, encouraging herders to increase animal numbers without regard for quality; and discouraging an ownership mentality and impeding the initiatives of herders and local governments, providing opportunities for local elites to secure exclusive rights to productive rangelands, which generates inequality and endangers the sustainable foundation of herders' livelihoods.

In the mid-2000s, the Mongolian government began to take measures to address the problem and to ensure the proper use of public rangelands, with the first Land Law enacted in 2006. Under the Land Law, herder families with shared access to seasonal rangelands and organised on a voluntary basis can collectively manage the land are able to negotiate Land Use Agreements with local authorities. To ensure more effective implementation of the Land Law, the government adopted an annual local land-management planning methodology in which local governments are required each year to draft rangeland use plans, to be implemented and monitored with the participation of the herding community. Despite this initiative, the implementation of the Land Law and the planning methodology has proved to be insufficient, largely due to poor capacity at the local government level and inconsistent government policy resulting from increasing conflicts of interest that favour the issuing of mining licences on former rangelands. In addition, raising awareness and capacity development at the level of herder households is a time-consuming task.

Since 2008, the Green Gold Project, in cooperation with local governments, has supported herders' traditional user groups - Pasture User Groups (PUGs) - in order to develop the capacities needed to collectively develop and implement grazing plans and regulate the use of common seasonal rangelands. In the intervening years, about 1000 PUGs have been supported. By September 2014, about 400 of those PUGs had negotiated land-use agreements with local authorities based on collective rangeland use plans and the adoption of internal regulations. In those springs where herder families have become organised and have adopted collective rangeland use plans and regulations, the implementation of annual south land-management planning has become more feasible. The division of responsibilities between herders and local governments in managing rotational grazing, stocking rates and the management of hay-making and reserve areas has become clearer and thus better implemented and monitored. At present, PUG Land Use Agreements are the only legal documents assuring herders of their traditional user rights to their rangelands.
## Our Common Future, Our Common Global. Approaches from an educational experience towards collective action

MB. Wehbe (1); M. Juarez (2)

(1) Economic Science, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; (2) Humanities, Psycopedagogy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina

> "... When we understand how much we depend on nature then we will start this huge cultural change we need to be more sustainable... Antonio Tironi Silva, Young Scientists Network Conference, Villa Vigoni, Italy, 2014 (Video available at www.icsu.org)

A common future under climate change will need deep behavioural changes. We need to learn more about threats and risks, to reduce vulnerabilities, to increase our capacities to adapt to global environmental changes, and to reduce our pressure on the environment. We need to sustainably live under uncertainty within a complex human-nature world.

We can think about climate change as a major threat to humans and our nature, a threat to our common future, a tragedy of global commons. Despite quite strong, short term global actions are required if we are to avoid this and other threats and from global environmental changes, equally strong but long term individual and collective behavioural changes will be necessary.

This presentation is about an educational experience aimed at fostering behavioural changes at the individual level and towards collective action. We present results from a local experience through formal education at the National University of Rio Cuarto in Argentina. An ongoing Project (PRODEC) which aims at introducing environmental issues within all discipline curricula at our University based on the premise that most of our students are those future professionals and educators that at different levels and within different spaces will have the opportunity and hard challenge to foster that huge cultural change we need to sustain life on Earth.

The Project started in 2013 with the integration of professors from different disciplines, within the social and natural sciences, interested in an interdisciplinary approach to global environmental changes and challenges through formal education. The Project has been associated to a request from the Humanities school at our University and nurtured from the demand of a Secondary school with a trajectory in "education for the environment". To date, four workshops have taken place: one with undergraduate students from our University, one with students for primary education; and the other two, with students from first years of secondary school. In all cases, each workshop was structured in three phases: a) an oral presentation accompanied by allusive photographs, pictures and diagrams to the presented global environmental threats

and challenges; b) the development of competitive and cooperative games; and, c) a space for creativity from group productions (posters made by students) related to what has been experienced, followed by a fifteen minutes presentation by group. Each workshop started with an impersonal individual written inquiry about their expectations for the workshop and ended with another individual appreciation on what has been experienced, in a written form.

Main results from these participative dynamic experiences may be summarized as follows: a) all students show themselves eager to learn more about what is going on at Planetary scale concerning the relationship human-environment; b) there is a widespread willingness to reconnect to nature -i.e. through different activities within and outside the University; and, c) there is a kind of widespread happiness when discovering the possibilities to solve problems through collective action.

To date, these experiences have allowed our working team to increase our expectations on introducing environmental issues within all discipline curricula at our University through this type of workshop activities, even we have not been able to assess the extent to which these activities may have transformed students behaviour yet.

* PRODEC Team: Rached S; Aguilar Mansilla F; Echenique H; Tello D; De Luca N

## Dynamic of agricultural innovations diffusion in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (1); D. Abdoulaye, (2); B. Barbier (3); D. Thomas, (4)

(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2IE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2IE), Laboratoire d'hydraulique et des ressources en eau, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) CIRAD - Umr geau, Dakar, Senegal; (4) Université de Liège, Department of rural economic and development, Gembloux, Belgium

This study highlights the factors determining the spread of agricultural innovations for water harvesting since the drastic effects of drought 70s in Burkina Faso. These innovations include zai, stone bunds, land, high-moons, mulching and grass strips. A survey of 629 farmers revealed that farmers fall into five categories which are the pioneer, early, latecomer, late and non-adopters. After four decades of diffusion (1974-2013) the rate is estimated at 69.3% for stone bunds, 49.1% for zai, 26.2% for grass strips and less than 10% for half-moons, bunds land and mulching. The multinomial logit model showed that the climatic conditions in the Sahel zone, age and perception of increased dry spells of farm households promoted the spread of these innovations. However, the low level of organization and access to agricultural services were the major constraints to their adoption.

# 4415a - Urban policies for Accessibility, Mobility and Informal settlements in the Global South to cope with Climate Change: Emerging Issues, Innovations and Opportunities

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-4415a-01

### Urban form, mobility and greenhouse gas emission in African cities: the case of Yaoundé

V. Ongolo Zogo (1)

(1) University of Yaoundé, Public Economics, Yaoundé, Cameroon

Short summary: (max 15 lines)

This contribution using the city of Yaoundé with a mono

centric spatial form, as a case study, aims to show how accessibility is created through the link between urban form and transport services.

The main finding of the estimation is that CO2 emissions is linked to mobility practices associated to distance covered. Consequently, urban form and mobility planning in Yaoundé are not CO2 neutral. The mono centric spatial form of the city of Yaoundé with a spatial concentration of services and economic activities, low residential density likely induces high level of travel demand. Associated with high emission of greenhouse gas services, induces high level of CO2 emissions. The main policy herald should be the necessity to insist on putting in place an integrated land used and mobility plan with a specific focus on non-motorized facilities and mass transit solutions.

Full abstract: (max 34 lines)
Urban sprawl and mobility are currently becoming an important concern in developed countries with the principal challenge being the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, in sub-Saharan Africa where household's motorization rate is still weak, the main issue appears to be adequate transportation. This communication aims at shading light on integrated land use and mobility planning actions with a focus on reducing vehicle emissions, introducing clean fuel and clean vehicle technologies, improving fuel economy and reducing CO2 emissions.

Estimates by Godard (2002) for some cities in Africa indicate that CO2 emissions rate is worse than certain capital cities in Europe. However, studies by CERTU and STC (2002), redone by Duprez (2002), highlight the interest of this question by comparing greenhouse gas pollution between buses and business associated with small size low cost vehicles in Abidjan. Results indicate that, those taxis reject more CO2 emissions than minibuses and buses.

This contribution using the city of Yaoundé with a mono centric spatial form, as a case study, aims to show how accessibility is created through the link between urban form and transport services. The aim of the paper is to evaluate accessibility policies by measuring the consequences of urban sprawl on the production of greenhouse gas emission, within the context of an African cities experiencing growth, where mass transit has not been adopted as a pertinent solution for urban displacement. Using data from the third Cameroon household consumption survey (2007) and the urban displacement Plan for Yaoundé (2010) describing mobility is realized by individuals on a daily and weekly basis, the study estimates the rate of CO2 emission according to characteristics associated to displacement as well as urban form.

The main finding of the estimation is that CO2 emissions is linked to mobility practices associated to distance covered. Consequently, urban form and mobility planning in Yaoundé are not CO2 neutral. The mono centric spatial form of the city of Yaoundé with a spatial concentration of services and economic activities, low residential density likely induces high level of travel demand. Associated with high emission of greenhouse gas emissions, induces high level of CO2 emissions. The main policy herald should be the necessity to insist on putting in place an integrated land used and mobility plan with a specific focus on non- motorized facilities and mass transit solutions.

K-4415a-02

The EASI (Enable, Avoid, Shift, Improve) concept: a climate-friendly policy framework to ensure accessibility and sustainable mobility in urban areas of developing countries

JC. Crochet (1)

(1) CODATU, Angers, France

The objective of this presentation is to discuss the results of a major study recently carried out under the aegis of the SSATP on the basis of which a new approach to sustainable urban transport in developing countries, the EASI (Enable, Avoid, Shift, Improve) concept, was developed. The SSATP is the Africa Transport Program, administered by the World Bank and funded by various bilateral and multilateral donors. The SSATP is the main donor supported African fund dedicated to knowledge creation and capacity building in the transport sector.

The study took place in 2013-14 and focused on African cities. Although specific to the African context, the study's findings and recommendations apply to most developing countries particularly those with low to moderate GDP per capita. The study's aim is to identify through a bottom-up approach the key constraints to the efficiency of urban mobility systems and accessibility in Africa, including the cities' ability to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions and to adapt to potential extreme climatic events, and, second, to present priority policy measures needed to address these constraints. The study is based on a systematic and thorough data collection effort of a scope never carried out before. Twenty cities (metropolitan areas in fact) were selected for the data collection. A detailed set of information in eleven domains was collected for each city in the same format.

The key weaknesses that were identified were the following: (i) inadequate governance systems, although there was a lot of variability in this among the cities; (ii) little progress with respect to land-use planning and control and their integration with the development of mobility systems; (iii) insufficient system optimization of the various transport modes; (iv) unplanned development of informal, environmentally unsound, small public transport providers; (v) serious deficiencies in the design of infrastructure and in its operation and maintenance; (vi) high level of traffic accidents; and (vii) neglect for the environmental impact of transport and the resilience of cities. A major consequence of these weaknesses is that urban growth produces much greater GHG emissions in the transport sector in Africa than it needs to do. The presentation will examine in particular the relationships between two indices developed during the study to assess the level of governance achieved by the cities as well as their performance vis à vis mobility and accessibility, and, indirectly climate change.

The presentation will then discuss the key elements of the policy framework needed to address the above issues. It will show that the ASI (Avoid, Shift, Improve) conceptual framework formulated about ten years ago to structure public action mostly in developed countries is fully relevant to African and developing world cities as long as it is adapted to the particular context of these cities. This requires that special emphasis be given to the future urban form and future infrastructure networks (including their resilience) in the "Avoid" actions, to an integrated and inclusive multimodal mobility strategy focused on non motorized transport and low cost public transport in the "Shift" actions, and to more efficient traffic and vehicles in the "Improve" actions.

The presentation will also emphasize that, for public action to take place and be effective, it is essential to establish a competent and responsible governance framework for urban transport in Africa, which will lead the transformation effort in conjunction with all stakeholders, therefore to add a set of "Enable" actions. This framework should be capable of anticipating needs, guiding action, and ensuring integrated management and development of urban transport systems. It would include the adoption of a national urban transport strategy, the adequate allocation of public responsibilities at the metropolitan level, the setting up of metropolitan transport agencies in the large cities, the fast development of human resources, the sustainable increase of financing flows to urban transport, the continuous participation of civil society in the development of urban transport systems, and the involvement of the private sector in the provision of transport infrastructure and services.

K-4415a-03

Urban Agenda for Climate Change: Meeting the mobility needs of urban poor

R. Sharma (1)

(1) Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd., Human Settlement Management Institute, Delhi, India

India is at the doorstep of rapid urbanisation. The process of urbanisation is contributed by migration of population, with diverse socio-economic and cultural backgrounds, to cities. One common aspiration they all come with is- quality of life. Although cities contribute to more than two-third of total GDP, the flow back for city improvement is very meagre. City infrastructure is getting oversaturated with the added burden of migrants. City is unable to meet the demand of migrants for housing, urban services, employment and social security. The result is islands of disparity and social divide between different segments of population on the basis of origin, socio-economic fabric and religion.

Over the years, many attempts have been made to integrate population living in various clusters of the city. Inclusive planning is a tool, which provides opportunities for the residents to plan for their social, physical, cultural and socio-economic needs. Urban transport is an improtant entry point towards achieving the objective of inclusive planning, for the simple reason that it cuts across all the sectors and population. Mobility is directly linked to interaction of various stakeholders, which is a precondition for generation of urban transport. Large resources and leads to high levels of carbon footprints.

This session would look into various planning imperatives pertaining to urban transport, with an objective of making a city 'inclusive' and environment friendly. Discussions
would focus on formulating strategies to make transport accessible to the urban poor, with an objective of reducing carbon footprints. Tools like integrated transport network, last mile connectivity, transport demand management, transport oriented development, transport pricing etc would be illustrated to demonstrate their adaptability in meeting the needs of urban poor in the making of inclusive and carbon neutral cities.

### O-4415a-01

#### Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans: a local approach for national mitigation actions

J. Allaire (1) ; T. May, (2)

(1) CODATU, Lyon, France; (2) Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds, United Kingdom

In European countries, Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMP) have shown how much they could be a powerful approach to define urban transport policies that combine the multiplicity of transport modes and their actors.

In its international review, the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT, 2002) highlighted the principal barriers to effective SUMP development as poor policy integration and coordination, counterproductive institutional roles, unsupportive regulatory frameworks, weaknesses in pricing, poor data quality and quantity, limited public support and lack of political resolve.

Thanks to Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) there is an interesting potential to develop mitigation policies in developing countries by combining local urban transport planning and national policies.

The concept of the NAMA - Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action - emerged in December 2007 during the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties in Bali (COP13) and it was detailed in the Cancun agreement in 2010. NAMAs are voluntary measures taken by developing countries and registered by the UNFCCC - to reduce their GHG emissions. Not only do they cover investments that directly reduce GHG emissions, they also cover investment projects and programmes, as well as sector-based or national policies to reduce emissions in the medium and long term.

They must refer to a real-time situation and show the expected reductions in GHG emissions using MRV methodology (Measure, Report, Verify) to quantify the impact of the measures taken. But they have also to report on co-benefices such as accessibility improvements, congestion reduction, air quality, road safety, public health, etc.

By using a national MRV (Measure, Report, Verify) methodology, the local authorities could monitor and evaluate the impact of their mobility policies within a SUMP process, but their effort could also be encouraged at the national level, by national support and appropriated legislative framework before being submitted to the UNFCCC secretariat.

Such Vertical NAMAs in the urban transport sector could certainly facilitate sustainable urban development in developing countries and give to urban transport a transformational role for cities.

### O-4415a-02

#### Transforming a Megacity: Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Jakarta

E.B. Kurniawan (1)

(1) Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Jakarta, Indonesia

Recently, Jakarta has been selected as a city with the worst traffic jam in the world. As among the largest urban areas in the world, the city suffers various urban problems on extreme levels. In 2010, it has 771 traffic congestion points and 11,185 l/s water supply deficit. It is also struck by flood every year. Flood does not only come from the upstream areas but also from the sea. Some of its northern coastal areas experience rapid land subsidence with 7.5 cm/year on average. It is predicted that if nothing be done, water from the sea will go up into the heart of the city in less than 50 years. The rapid urban population growth in Indonesia, especially in Greater Jakarta, makes the problems in the future worsening.

The 5th Assessment Report describes how urban areas

are strongly related to the climate change. It contributes significantly to CO2 emissions. Urban form and transport infrastructure, as well as density and mixed use of land use are strongly related to GHG emissions. They also have a strong link to the level of efficiency in the use of energy.

This paper explains how the Indonesian government addresses those problems, their strategies and to what extent they already implement such efforts. Do they handle it in a comprehensive manner? Which efforts can be considered as climate change mitigation, adaptation and both? Such questions will be answered here.

The central government of Indonesia comes up with the concept of Green City, not only for Jakarta but also for other Indonesian big cities. The concept requires that a city in Indonesia needs to focus in improving the condition of its eight elements, namely Green Planning, Green Open Space, Green Waste, Green Energy, Green Water, Green Transportation, Green Building and Green Community.

In the case of applying the concept, the government is on the way of mainstreaming climate change into spatial planning. In the case of Jakarta, it tries to cope with the increasing number of motorized vehicles on the roads and the worsening traffic congestion by improving the public transport condition through the development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Mass Rapid Transit (MRT). The government also tries to connect the improvement of that public transport network with the densification of land use and the application of mixed use by implementing the transit oriented development (TOD) concept.

As for the problem of land subsidence and the sea level rise, the government has a plan to build the so called Giant Sea Wall, which can protect the coast of Jakarta and to be functioned as raw water storage. In addition, Jakarta is also increasing the size of its green open space. It may reduce the flood and at the same time cooling the city's temperature. Therefore, Jakarta is and will be experiencing a big transformation in order to overcome its problems as well as ways of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

### O-4415a-03

#### Comparative resilience process of Asian river / coastal cities faced with hydraulic crisis

C. Pierdet (1)

(1) Université de Technologie de Compiègne - COMUE SORBONNE-UNIVERSITES, Umr 8591 Igp (meudon), FRANCE, France

The Asian coastal or river cities are already subject to very high stresses in their urban development. They have most often expanded behind the bank of the rivers or on the coastal areas with dikes and embankments on the river floodplains. So they are very vulnerable to natural disasters such as flooding and sea level rise.

For example, in Phnom Penh, infrastructures of protection against flooding (i.e. drainage network in the city center and large peripheral dikes) have been rebuilt only after the great flood of 1996. They have been badly damaged during the Khmer rouge regime.

In Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA), despite the many evacuation canals and pumping stations, major floods occur almost every year. The floods of 2011 have caused new developments in order to protect the inner city and industrial areas north of the capital.

Recently, in Phnom Penh and Bangkok, speculative projects to private investors reject in the outskirts of cities the poorest populations. The consequences are social, but also environmental. Firstly the peripheral areas, in contrast to the city center, having no embankments, are prone to flooding, with no proper drainage systems. Second, the proliferation of high-rise towers worsens the process of subsidence and flooding vulnerability of cities. How to be resilient without being sustainable?

So we propose to compare the resilience to hydraulic crises of these river/coastal Asian cities, as well as actors and tools used in each case for the implementation of priority actions identified at the conference of Hyogo in 2005 (HFA 2005-2015). They gradually incorporate into their planning instructions to promote risk reduction, under pressure guidelines and international actors such as United Nations, the World Bank and NGO.
# 4415b - Transformative solutions for urban sustainability: Multi-level government and cross-sectoral collaboration for efficient climate action

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-4415b-01

#### Transformative solutions for urban sustainability governance: Multi-level government and cross-sectoral collaboration for effective and efficient climate action

T. Elmqvist (1)

(1) Stockholm University, Stockholm resilience centre, Stockholm, Sweden

In this session we will focus on transformative solutions for urban sustainability governance. After more than two decades of attempting to address climate change and broader sustainability challenges through a global regime, progress has been largely incremental and piecemeal. Despite a rich theoretical tradition that increasingly addresses the normative issues in global environmental governance, and considers the crucial role of non-state actors, the application of this theory to practice often retains a biophysical or managerial lens rather than a deeply normative or socio-political one. Transformative actions are emerging, however, that may deepen resilience and trigger effective climate change adaptation and mitigation. These actions are particularly abundant at the urban scale, drawing upon novel constellations of actors, resources, and engagement strategies.

Responding to the global environmental challenge requires a deepened understanding of how urban areas relate with the environment and how they transform it. New areas of research are needed that explore the dynamics of urbanization, including the globalization of urban lifestyles and diets, which must take into account urban complexities and urban resilience for refurbished governance and urban transformations.

Collaborative engagement that includes non-state actors, non-governmental networks and civil society provides a deeper and better understanding of the complexity that comes with bridging human and biophysical dimensions of environmental policy, including social-ecological dynamics, in order to bring about sustainable development in urban contexts. This requires a shift in thinking within governance that embodies transformative pathways – with the international tools in hand (i.e., MRV regulation, transparent reporting of climate action), as well as deeper engagement with a variety of stakeholders to help build a meaningful, legitimate, and ultimately effective mode of "urban sustainability governance."

To this end, this panel brings together key scholars and leading experts on local government climate action to propose new insights into participatory, inclusive action that engages non-state actors.

The session proposed will be focused on urban environments (cities) and their climate action transformations. Examples of successful transformative dynamics and solutions tested in and demonstrated by cities will be highlighted. The session includes new insights into community-based action research on climate change; guiding principles in governance at multiple scales for efficient urban transformations; the drivers of unsustainable development paths; collective action with involvement of diverse knowledge-and-power domains and multi-stakeholder engagement towards creating transformative pathways at the local level; and approaches to standardized, transparent emissions reporting.

### O-4415b-01

#### Urbanisation, sustainability and transformation - from local decisions to global goals

B. Webb (1) ; X. Bai (2) ; M. Stafford-Smith (3)

(1) Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra, Australia; (2) Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; (3) Climate Adaptation Flagship - CSIRO, Black Mountain, Australia

Urbanisation with its attendant resource and social pressures is an increasingly dominant feature of development. Substantial research addresses sustainable urban development. However, whilst there are important attempts at integration, from a 'whole of systems' perspective much of the research has been partial and fragmented. Undersstandably public and private sector decision makers find it difficult to encompass the full range of issues, whilst also facing a range of risks and uncertainties (including, but not only, climate change).

With much of the growth in urbanisation still to come, there is a window of opportunity to address the complex and multi-level issues from the local, regional and national decision-makers perspective. At the same time development of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, many directly relevant to urban directions, provide an overall context to address the many trade-offs and synergies faced in practice by urban decision-makers.

The presentation describes an initiative currently under development to use a wide range of Asian and Australasian urban case studies to systematically investigate:

* the extent of two-way interactions between urbanisation and sustainable development goals at local, regional and global levels

* identification and analysis of the most critical trade-offs and synergies that need to be addressed by urban decision makers at local, regional and national levels if they are to achieve sustainable, equitable, inclusive and resilient development

* the preconditions and mechanisms for cities to achieve the transitional and transformational change necessary to address the above issues

* the extent to which the key choices, trade-offs and synergies, and the transformational preconditions identified, can be related to various urban characteristics and typologies; this to better understand the potential for (and limitations in) transferability of insights, learning, practices and strategies.

It is crucial to reveal and understand these key interlinkages, which are not always apparent, but can present both challenges (unintended outcomes or even derailment of an intervention) and opportunities (identifying the leverage points for generating and realising co-benefits). The initiative will aim to provide practical integrated cross-sector guidance to urban decision-makers at various levels, on the key strategic issues and choices they face, and relevant to their context. It also aims to develop underpinning scientific insights including a robust set of frameworks that will facilitate understanding and analysis of the impacts of various urbanisation choices and futures, at multiple levels of analysis, and so contribute more generally to future research methodology and practice.

The approach to be taken to the initiative includes analysis through research and stakeholder partnerships and collaborations with a diversity of case study cities and scales to be included; trans-inter-disciplinary approaches including knowledge co-design/development with stakeholders, recognising that multiple decision makers and other stakeholders need to be engaged to reflect the initiative's decision-centred approach; viewing cities as
complex emergent socio-ecological systems with many
possible future urban pathways which need to encompass
incremental and transitional as well as transformational
change.

Whilst the initial case study focus is on Asia and Australasia
the approaches and findings will draw on and contribute to
broader international initiatives, including Future Earth.

O-4415b-02

Urban transitions

D. Loorbach (1)

(1) Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Urban transformati-ons are complex and shockwave
processes of change co-created by formal and informal
types of governance. This presentati-ons draws from the
experiences with urban transiti-on labs to reflect upon
the dynamics of urban sustainability transi-tions, its
inherent poli-cal dimension and their governance. Ci-ties
are the breeding ground for transformati-ve changes. Not
only are ci-ties confronted directly with the impacts of
unsustainability, they are also the contexts in which the
high density of actors, technologies, capital and knowledge
leads to experimentati-on and social innovati-on. This
presentati-on will build upon transiti-on studies to reflect
on the mechanisms, dynamics and patterns underlying the
complex and shockwave process of urban sustainability
transiti-ons. One of the features of such urban
transiti-tions is that they are inherently poli-tical: new
forms of agency and governance challenge mainstream
thoughts, structures and cultures to create space for
transformati-on. It will introduce the idea of governance
parachy in this contexts: the emerging contexts in
which different actors at different levels develop informal
and formal governance structures to address specific
complex problems. These range from local coopera-ves
to public-private partnerships, ci-zen juries, par-cipatory
planning and social entrepreneurship. Urban transiti-on
management takes this emerging context as the basis
for developing the meta-governance framework of urban
transiti-on labs.

O-4415b-03

Driving change through effective local climate action, collaboration and integrated solutions

A. Marques (1); A. Pickens (2); Y. Arikan (2); M. Van Staden (1)

(1) ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Low carbon cities / carbon climate registry center, Bonn, Germany; (2) ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Global policy and advocacy, Bonn, Germany

Setting the scene for inclusive and decisive global climate regime is not done in an isolated manner. Transformative climate action requires multi-level government and cross-sectoral collaboration for ensuring low-emission, climate-resilient development in the urban world.

Local Governments can have significant impacts on local
markets and on the large-scale delivery of low emission
development technologies and practices, through their
mandates and different roles as policy maker, regulator,
service provider and consumer (procurement processes).

This presentation focuses on the change system which
is being implemented by ICLEI - Local Governments for
Sustainability* and other local government networks, from
the definition of a common global vision and strategy that
enables the recognition, engagement, and empowerment
of local and subnational governments, to the main
methodologies and tools used for the collaborative
identification of transformative pathways at local level.
Results are presented and key barriers and opportunities
are identified and discussed.

This presentation also explores the different processes,
methodologies and tools ICLEI uses to identify the local
unique context and priorities, and catalyze broader
engagement from different actors, including the business
community, to foster the development of long-term
Low Emissions development Strategies (LEDS) and
design and implementation of low-carbon projects
and programs which are adequate to the local needs. A

Measurement, Reporting and Verification framework of
local climate action is also addressed, by using globally-
recognized methodologies for consistency, comparison
and aggregation across different entities and initiatives.
Transparent reporting of local climate data is essential
to ensure the credibility and empowerment of local
governments as partners in the global climate regime.

As conclusion from the multiple initiatives analyzed,
collaborative engagement emerges as enabler for the
sharing of best practices, vertical-integration of policies
and investment plans across multi-levels of government,
streamlining low-carbon strategies into all sectors
of urban planning and development, and fast-tracking
climate action.

("ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability is an
international association of Local Governments which has
more than 1000 members in 86 countries.)

O-4415b-04

Sustainability governance: the role of
entrepreneurs in triggering transformative
development pathway shifts

S. Burch (1)

(1) University of Waterloo, Geography and Environmental Management, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Sustainability transitions are fluid and multi-faceted
phenomena, and may be characterized by multiple
"false starts," punctuated equilibria, and contradictory
pressures (such as a shifting political landscape and
economic stressors). Many of these transitions are taking
place at many small, community-based scales, and are
driven by grassroots or bottom-up initiatives. While the
idiosyncrasies of a particular urban context may strain our
capacity to garner lessons that apply to other cities, social
learning is a crucial dimension of accelerated sustainability
transitions. In particular, cases of established leadership
and innovative responses to sustainability challenges
provide important insights into the roots, enabling factors,
and various pathways that sustainability transitions might
follow.

Despite increasingly frequent engagement with large
corporate partners, cities rarely have the capacity to
meaningfully engage with the abundant variety of small
businesses that contribute much of the innovation
necessary for a transition to low carbon, resilient
communities. These entrepreneurs are often characterized
by the ability to rapidly take advantage of opportunities
that others might view as risks, and create the 'radical
novelties' that are central to sustainability transitions.
In this talk, I explore the role that entrepreneurs in
general, but small businesses in particular, can play in
sustainability transitions. I investigate novel mechanisms
that are emerging that might contribute to more effective
governance of this group of non-state actors, and the
potential that a multi-level governance approach might
have to accelerate innovation.

4415 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-4415-01

Mitigating Climate Change Through Managing Urban Mobility and Urban Form

R. Agustina (1)

(7) National Institute of Technology (Itenas), Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

Some researches have emphasized that travel patterns and
their impacts on the environment are strongly related to the
urban form. It is also believed that the private automobile
has been the primary cause of the expansion of cities.
However, in fact, they affect each other. The urban form
affects the travel pattern, and the suburbanisation is also
the cause of the changes in the socio-economic context
of urban life that are also responsible for the growth in
car ownership.

The high-energy consumption of transport in low-density
cities has become a matter of growing concern. The threat
of long-term climate changes due to greenhouse gases
have sharpened the awareness that present energy prices
do not nearly cover the environmental and social costs of energy use. However, there have been some suggestions to respond to this challenge. The majority of them follow the hypothesis that the energy use of urban transport is a direct function of population density and suggest a return to mixed-use, compact urban form.

Nevertheless, such researches on developing countries are still limited. Do they ring true? Is energy use of Bandung Metropolitan Area (BMA) as the case study, this paper tries to investigate how the urban form affects travel patterns in Indonesia's metropolitan areas. BMA is the second largest metropolitan area in Indonesia, it has more than 77 millions inhabitants in which about 67,7% of them live in the urban area. Thus, it can be predicted that it generates a significant level of urban mobility, which in turn may lower the environment condition.

This paper discloses the impacts of the urban form on the travel pattern. It tries to explain to what extent the urban form affects the travel pattern and how it is strongly related to urban environment especially through the air pollution factor.

## P-4415-02

### Integration of adaptation to climate change within the design process of urban planning projects : new tool(s) and new methodology(ies)

M. Colombert (1) ; M. Gantois, (2) ; L. Jacquet, (3) ; A. Lesueur, (4) ; G. Meunier, (3) ; H. Nassopoulos, (1) ; J.L. Salagnac, (5)

(1) Ecole des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris, Paris, France;

(2) City of Paris, Paris, France; (3) EGIS Concept / ELIOETH, Montreuil, France; (4) CDC Climat, Paris, France; (5) CSTB, Desh, Champs-sur-Marne, France

During the ADAPTATIO project, partners have reflected on the means available to address in the design of development projects the issue of adaptation to climate change in relation with mitigation. For this, the adaptation has been defined in terms of two key resources for tomorrow - water and energy - and on the economic evaluation of these two intakes. Exploring contrasted possible futures was privileged to show the consequences, including economic, of those choices. Solutions to act on the building location, equipment and equipment environment of the buildings were identified. Each solution has an investment cost, operating and maintenance costs, and a very specific lifetime.

Thereafter, the reflections in common with professional urban development have led to two conclusions. Firstly, the adaptation does not appear to the specifications of ongoing and planned projects. The project and the daily monitoring are already very complex. The consideration of climate change during project is not easy due to the uncertainty regarding the intensity of future climate change. Secondly, this relative lack of interest on adaptation, due to the significance of the operational aspects of the conduct of operations, however, is accompanied by a curiosity to have elements of appreciation regarding the magnitude and urgency to set up adaptation measures.

Premièrement, l'adaptation ne figure pas au caher des charges des projets en cours ou projetés à court terme, dont le déroulé et le suivi au quotidien se révèlent déjà très complexes. L'incertitude autour de l'intensité des futurs changements climatiques ne facilitent pas leur prise en considération lors des projets.

The tools developed within the project ADAPTATIO, including the «toolbox», intend to propose an answer to the needs of professionals. This toolbox processes the results of simulation software to the scale of the building on the one hand (CLIM'ELIOETH. Ecodesign tool developed by EGIS Concept and addressing energy issues and comfort of buildings), to the neighborhood level on the other hand (ENVI-MET: simulation tool on urban comfort, particularly taking into account the evapotranspiration of vegetation phenomena). This software uses meteorological data for 2050-2100, provided by MeteoNorm. The toolbox also includes economic data regarding the costs of energy and water to the same time periods as for the climate. This tool enables meeting the wishes of professionals to have synthetic indicators on the qualification of indoor and outdoor comfort at the neighborhood level. The associated costs are also accessible. ADAPTATIO toolbox is able to raise awareness of professionals regarding the issues due

to a new climate. Particular attention has been paid to the interface that further tests will lead to improvement. Its current limits are to require a complete new data entry (geometry and description of buildings and their environment) to analyze a new neighborhood.

The ADAPTATIO objective was however achieved: to make possible an exploration by professionals on the incidence of future climate change. The aim of the project is to build a group of buildings actually made in the ZAC Tolbiac. It is all about creating the conditions for an exchange without precluding to replace the detailed study and simulation tools operationally mobilized by the actors of urban development. The maturity of the concept of adaptation and reflections on its close ties with mitigation still seems inadequate given the analysis of research on these topics. It seems therefore necessary to continue the maturation and ADAPTATIO toolbox may help. The project has also attracted the rich exchanges at workshops and public meetings about the economic aspects of adaptation. Some steps have been taken in connection with the professional practices to facilitate the exchange between economists and practitioners about the economic and financial implications of adaptation. However the long-term outlook for costs (energy and water) is difficult to understand.

## P-4415-03

### CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IN CITIES: An Analysis of the Living Community Challenge Certification

J. Glowacki (1)

(1) Université Laval, Québec, QC, France

Adaptation and resilience are emerging as key components to the paradigm shift needed in urban planning to deal with the super wicked problems of climate change and resource depletion that characterize the urban reality of the early XXist century. However, the lack of emphasis on the examination of governance from a practical perspective is stunting the transfer of academic ideas to actual interventions and hindering the timely implementation of solutions. My presentation addresses these issues by analyzing the newly released Living Community Challenge (LCC) certification system as a conceptual framework in guiding interventions for adaptation and resilience in cities.

The presentation will be separated into four sections: 1- characterization of principal parameters in resilience and adaptation, 2- synthesis of currently applied methodologies, 3- identification of recognized barriers in adaptation interventions 4- and analysis of the LCC certification as a regulatory tool. Specifically, in the first section, I will be performing an epistemological analysis of the fundamental concepts of climate change adaptation within the context of urban planning processes. Second, I will provide a summary of current methodologies used in adaptation experiments, as well as, juxtaposing these methodologies against theoretical processes proposed by many leading thinkers in the field of adaptation planning. I will discuss the involvement of these processes in strategic program development, especially as pertaining to the importance of the multi-level governance frameworks and the transmission of information in institutional learning. The use of innovative ideas such as experimentation, market-based approaches and maintenance management will be addressed. An examination of the obstacles encountered in applying climate change sensitive modifications to regulatory aspects in cities and their related projects will expose the prevailing barriers accompanying legitimacy/power struggles and the characteristics of policy development coupled with super wicked problems.

Finally, the LCC certification system will be juxtaposed against the theoretical groundwork identified in the first three sections to establish connections between the processes described in relation to management and the potential for real-life application in order to meet adaptation and resilience goals. The presentation will answer the following questions: Does the LCC certification meet adaptation and resilience parameters in its scope and implementation? How does the certification system measure against current methodologies applied in existing experimentation? Does the tool provide a structure which enables well-recognized barriers to be surmounted more easily or does it create potential negative feedbacks hampering its use?
As the urgency for climate change adaptation in cities increases, the need for tools which can guide practitioners in uncharted waters will become pressing. This analysis of the Living Community Challenge (LCC) examines the system within the framework of academic theory on adaptation and resilience, in order to facilitate community approaches to sustainability and resilience.

P-4415-04

## Livable Urban Futures - Process and Way Forward for Urban within Future Earth

C. Griffith (1) ; P. Romero Lankao (2) ; D. Simon (3)

(1) UGEC Project, ASU GIOS, Tempe, United States of America; (2) University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; (3) Chalmers University of Technology, Mistra urban futures, Gothenburg, Sweden

The complexity of urban systems and the global sustainability challenges that we face require inter- and transdisciplinary research that combines context sensitive regional and global approaches to inform and challenge solutions. Although traditions of addressing urban complexities have long existed in the social sciences, humanities, engineering, and natural sciences, we have barely scratched the surface in our efforts to understand many crosscutting issues. A lack of interdisciplinary and co-produced research on the interactions and feedbacks between urbanization, urban areas and global environmental change (GEC) profoundly limits the potential to intentionally shift development pathways through planned governmental and nongovernmental actions.

Sponsored by the Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability, the global research platform, Future Earth represents a new opportunity to rethink how GEC research is organized to encourage interdisciplinary, and how it can better connect science with policy in order to offer solutions to today's grand sustainability challenges. Future Earth recently published its 2014 Strategic Research Agenda, naming 'urban' as one of its priority research areas. With this changing global research landscape, a number of urban research and practice communities are currently interested in new opportunities for enriched collaboration and for expanding and enhancing the 'urban' research agenda under the Future Earth framework. There is a lot of fertile ground for innovative research to promote linkages from fertile established or rapidly emerging areas of urban and environmental research and the Future Earth research themes.

In February 2014 and March 2015, Scoping Meetings were held in London, UK and Boulder, CO, USA that brought together representatives of different regions, disciplinary backgrounds and inter- and non-governmental organizations to begin conversations on the gaps and future needs for urban research as well as the necessary components for the design of a new urban interdisciplinary initiative.

The purpose of this presentation is to share the outcomes of the two workshops and the overall process that has been set in motion by the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project along with many other partners known as the Future Earth Urban Platform (FEUP) Working Group. This Working Group is leading the transition of the urban agenda within Future Earth through: a) the establishment of urban flagship activities and b) the design of an urban platform for facilitating interdisciplinary research coordination and co-design with urban stakeholders and practitioners. The goals for this session is to openly communicate this process of the urban transition into Future Earth and how it can better facilitate research and practice related to urban options for and limits to the transformation towards global sustainability to offer pathways for the engagement of new communities of urban researchers, practitioners, and others; and receive input and feedback from the session participants on the process and platform design.

P-4415-05

## Qualitative Scenario Building for Post-carbon Cities

K. Johnson (1) ; M. Breil, (1) ; A. Bigano (2) ; C. Cattaneo (3)

(1) FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, Venice, Italy; (2) FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, energy resources and markets, Milan, Italy; (3)

FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, Milan, Italy

This contribution presents the results from interactions with representatives in 10 cities of different sizes, located across Europe, aimed at the development of local visions and scenarios for transitioning to become post-carbon by 2050. Findings are based on experiences from the European Union funded project Post-Carbon Cities of Tomorrow (POCACITO), which aims at the development of an evidence-based roadmap for post-carbon European cities in 2050.

By means of holding local workshops in a participatory case study approach, the foresight exercise is conducted using a two-step methodology, consisting of vision building and back casting exercises. Both exercises have a strong focus on the inclusion of stakeholders. The use of a participatory approach, where the people whose futures are being discussed are the key actors of the process, can improve the relevance, consistency, and hence usefulness of scenarios. Creative brainstorming is employed to induce stakeholders to first envision the future of their city, and then develop qualitative scenarios describing how the transition to reach their post-carbon vision might be possible. Obstacles and opportunities that might be encountered along the way are identified, and actions needed to meet future goals are highlighted. The case study cities include Barcelona, Copenhagen/Malmö, Istanbul, Lisbon, Litoměřice, Milan/Turin, Rostock, and Zagreb.

Initial results from 6 out of 10 case study cities have shown similar elements in local strategies that have been proposed by local stakeholders, focusing primarily on urban projects for energy efficiency and the transition to non- fossil energy resources. The specific mix of strategies envisaged in these fields for each city depends both on different points of departure with regards to local governance (greater or smaller financial autonomy, extension of the municipal jurisdiction, etc.), and in part on specific local economic issues (development of economic sectors and/or generic aims of development). Under the prospect of urban sustainability, consideration is also given to thematic areas like consumption, as most visions contain "circular economy" as an aim, related to waste but also to energy generation. Further to "classic" urban issues in the transition to become a post-carbon city, some visions contain, for instance, a more or less generic prospective on local economic development and social inclusion. Additional analysis will be conducted to identify if the different city characteristics influence the set of actions, obstacles, opportunities and milestones proposed during the workshops. Moreover, the actions proposed during the participatory exercise will be compared to the existing urban plans for carbon reduction. The objective of this analysis is to identify if the participatory approach provides tangible advantages.

The great homogeneity of the initial results and the high rate of correspondence to issues considered in the international debate on post-carbon transitions can be interpreted as a sort of bottom-up confirmation for these arguments. However, it can also be seen as a result of a relatively high-level of uniformity in the composition of stakeholder groups across the local case study workshops, raising the question of how visions and scenarios might be described in a forum not composed mainly by "educated middle-class representatives".

P-4415-06

## Reimagining Civic Technologies for the Urban Poor in Indian Cities

S. Kesavan (1) ; S. Kainur, (1)

(1) Crosslinks Foundation, Bangalore, Karnataka, India

Introduction: People-centred economic transformation will play an important role in realizing inclusive and sustainable development in an increasingly urbanizing world. UN member states have therefore accorded a central place to "Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable" as Goal 11 on the "road to dignity" in the December Synthesis report of the Secretary-General on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda. According to UN-Habitat, the UN agency for human settlements, around 33% of the slums in urbanization in India, like in other low and middle-income developing countries, has been characterized by
environmental degradation, deepening economic divide and rampant proliferation of slum settlements that house close to 100 million urban poor in 640 cities and towns. Slum dwellers have a poor quality of life as they are deprived of access to basic services in the area of water and sanitation, electric power, street lights, healthcare and education. Slum settlements have also been reported to have become breeding grounds for criminal incidents and other unlawful activities thus jeopardizing public safety in the slums. The poor are more exposed to adverse environmental conditions in the form of polluted water and air, makes the slum inhabitants particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.

**Problem:** The poor and disadvantaged slum dwellers suffer from a persistent digital and financial exclusion that prevents the fruits of India's economic growth from truly benefiting from the fruits of the poor. The rapidly deteriorating living standards of the urban poor, most government programs have paid little attention to their plight. For example, Government of India has recently embarked on an ambitious multi-year program to create 100 smart cities with an investment of over USD 1 Billion every year. The proposed initiative aims to harness the power of technology to create profound changes in how cities operate and to deliver more effective governance to their residents. While the smart city program has a strong focus on increased competitiveness and economic growth through technology-driven urban improvements, the challenges faced by slum settlements are not sufficiently emphasized. The National Optical Fiber Network (NOFN), is Government of India's largest nation-wide optical network initiative that aims to extend broadband connectivity to 600 million rural citizens of India across 2.5 lakh village settlements in the country by 2017. Once again, the initiative fails to address the needs of the urban poor. In such communities since it's primarily focused on the empowerment of rural masses through broadband Internet.

**Uni-Fi Architecture:** In this paper, we present and discuss a universal and cost-effective broadband network architecture called "Uni-Fi" that is geared towards advancing the needs of slum dwellers in Indian cities. Through superior Marvic provision, improved governance and a better quality of life. Each Uni-Fi node in a slum community comprises three key components: i) Wireless Streetlights with integrated cameras for public lighting, broadband delivery and remote surveillance by public safety agencies, ii) Community Kiosks that serve as broadband training centres and single-window facilitation units for government welfare schemes for low-income slum dwellers, iii) e-Commerce/Deals platforms that list and sell daily-use items and other services at deep discounts to them. Uni-Fi nodes in a city are networked and managed centrally with an easy-to-use, drag-and-drop interface for transferring relevant municipal content to these devices.

**Methodology and Results:** A detailed techno-economic analysis was carried out to quantify and compare direct and indirect benefits of the Uni-Fi approach with competing multi-layer overlay options for varying network scales, ranging from 100 to 1000-node networks. The study observed a reduction in total cost of network ownership in the range of 30-60% for Uni-Fi over 5 years, besides accepting multiple socio-economic benefits to the state. Uni-Fi is being currently rolled out as a six-month pilot across 5 slum areas in Bangalore city in Karnataka state for proof-of-concept testing and further architectural refinements prior to scale-up.

## P-4415-07

### Adapting cities to climate change : a systemic modelling approach

V. Masson (1) ; A. Lemonsu (1) ; C. Mardachier (1) ; M. Bonhomme (2) ; G. Bretagne (3) ; J. Hidalgo (4) ; T. Houet (5) ; N. Long (6) ; MP. Moine (7) ; C. Demunck (1) ; G. Pigeon (1) ; JL. Salagnac (8) ; V. Viguie (9) ; K. Zibouche (10) ; L Nolergues (11) ; S. Hallelague (12)

(1) CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; (2) ENSA, Toulouse, France; (3) AATU, Toulouse, France; (4) LISST, Toulouse, France; (5) GEODE, Toulouse, France; (6) LIENSS, La Rochelle, France; (7) CERFACS, Toulouse, France; (8) CSTB, Desh, Champs-sur-Marie, France; (9) CIRRED, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Paris, France; (10) CSTB, Champs-sur-Marie, France; (11) IULie de France, Paris, France; (12) The World Bank (WB), Washington, United States of America

To answer the climate challenge, all states have

to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but also to adopt adaptation measures to limit the negative impacts of global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. The question arises especially for cities.

Because of complex interactions between climate change, the evolution of cities and its inhabitants, studying adaptation strategies for cities requires a strong interdisciplinary approach involving urban planners, building engineers, researchers, architects, manufacturers, meteorology, climate, economy, and social sciences.

Our four-step methodology consists firstly of defining interdisciplinary scenarios at several scales influencing the city evolution; secondly of simulating long term city evolution based on socio-economic and land-use models; thirdly of calculating impacts with physical models, and fourthly of evaluating the impacts and evaluating the adaptation strategies.

Interdisciplinary systemic modelling performs well to evaluate several adaptation strategies for a very broad range of topics. Some of the results obtained for the agglomeration of Paris through our interdisciplinary research projects VURCA and MUSCADE will be discussed.

A finding is that urban planning strategies may have unexpected influence on city expansion when considered on the very long term of the climate change. Another is that the combine effect of global warming and UHI can lead in the future to larger energy consumption in summer than in winter.

Indeed, air-conditioning will probably be necessary in 2100, because of expected stronger, and longer, heat waves. Limiting the UHI intensity allows for energy savings, and hence contributes to climate change mitigation. Adaptation strategies exist to limit air-conditioning use, both in time and intensity.

Analysis of several vegetation strategies, at several spatial and planning scales (from agricultural practices in the city surroundings to urban trees and green-roofs) have been performed and evaluated. Architectural choices also allow to reduce the UHI. Finally, inhabitants' use and practices seem to be an efficient lever to reduce energy consumption in buildings and its impact on the urban climate.

## P-4415-08

### How do we Create and Build Knowledge Partnerships for Cities?: The Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) ARC3-2

C. Rosenzweig (1) ; S. Ali Ibrahim (2)

(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America; (2) Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), Columbia University, New York, United States of America

The objective of this presentation is to introduce the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), and to foster a dialogue between global experts and local policy leaders regarding latest scientific findings and action areas on cities and climate change.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation are areas of high priority action in the urban context. These are often dealt with as separate issues in academic research, international climate talks, as well as national and local policy-making—leading to a situation where these focus areas often compete, and funding and/or decision-makers deteriorating. The session will discuss the main challenges and potential of cities to integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation actions.

This presentation will introduce the UCCRN and present initial findings from the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), concerning interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation in cities. Synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation will be analyzed and discussed across scales. The session will illustrate the need and importance of building a robust climate knowledge base in cities to support them in developing climate change actions strategies to address both climate adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner.

The objective of the UCCRN is to bring together experts
working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers.

The First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2) was published in 2011 by Cambridge University Press, and articulates urban climate risk frameworks, climate science for cities, and derives policy implications for key urban sectors — water and sanitation, energy, transportation, public health — and cross-cutting issues through land use and governance. The ARC3 report, containing 46 city adaptation and mitigation case studies, represents a four-year effort by 100+ scholars from over 50 cities in both developing and developed countries, and is the first-ever global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessment to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities.

The UCCRN is now working towards launching the next installment in this ongoing series, the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2). This session will present a First Look at the ARC3-2 Report, which has been submitted to Cambridge University Press. The ARC3-2 Report is scheduled to be launched at COP21 in Paris.

The content and format of the ARC3-2 report has been based on several scoping session dialogues held at international conferences, inviting thoughts and reflections from urban and climate change scholars, city practitioners, and stakeholders. It has also taken into account survey feedback from ARC3 users and city officials. This discussion will highlight UCCRN's approach to knowledge creation and the status and next steps for ARC3-2.

The presentation will comprise of an introduction by the Co-Editors of the ARC3-2, its new topics and novel perspectives. It will present the main thrust of the Report on the analytical challenges of the main sections of ARC3-2, and will outline the content, analytical breadth and anticipated challenges in building the main sections of the report, including: interdisciplinary methods and tools to analyze cross-cutting processes driving climate change and sustainable development; climate science and disaster risk management; urban infrastructure; urban ecosystems; and governance, policy and finance. It will also include details of the UCCRN Regional Hubs in Paris, Rio, and Durban, to be launched at COP21. Through this regional participation, the audience will be able to grasp key regional priorities

addressed in ARC3-2, with concrete examples of relevant analytical and policy cases. It will also discuss innovations for analyzing, reporting and communicating scientific progress in this field. This includes a short briefing on how ARC3-2 is building a storing communication platform (i.e., a Case Study Docking Station) to improve access to information by policy makers, academics and practitioners.

P-4415-09

Transforming the Urban Fabric to a Solar City: Market, Finance, and Policy Factors for Infrastructure-Scale PV Deployment in Amsterdam, London, Munich, New York, Seoul, and Tokyo

J. Taminiau (1); J. Byrne, (1)

(1) University of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Newark, Delaware, United States of America

A significant and sustained transition to a renewable energy future required to avoid further climate change continues to elude societies. Meanwhile, cities play an increasingly important role as they have propelled themselves onto the global climate change stage and have engaged in polycentric networks. To achieve substantial energy transformation while capturing the dynamic and important role reserved for the world's cities, this article reconsiders finance-policy-market interactions by positioning the build-out of a particular renewable energy technology, photovoltaic (PV) energy, as a commitment to infrastructure-scale development. The concept of the so-called 'solar city' [1] is analyzed where large-scale deployment of urban PV essentially transforms the urban fabric into an urban renewable energy power plant as the strategy utilizes the vast rooftop real estate available in all cities. More specifically, a capital market strategy to finance the infrastructure-scale implementation of urban PV is evaluated for six case study cities that have taken up active global roles — Amsterdam, London, Munich, New York City, Seoul, and Tokyo. The paper makes clear the substantial potential of the solar city concept in each location and outlines a practical financing strategy to realize the potential.

[1] Byrne, J., Taminiau, J., Kurdgelashvili, L., & Kim, K. (2015). A review of the solar city concept and methods to assess rooftop solar electric potential, with an illustrative application to the city of Seoul. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 830-844. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.023

4417 - Transforming Society and Science for Sustainability – Addressing Challenges in Transdisciplinary Research

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-4417-01

Social Transformations towards Sustainability - needs and opportunities for trans-formative, transdisciplinary science

H. Hackmann (1)

(1) International Council for Science (ICSU), Paris, France

Research on global environmental change and sustainability increasingly goes hand-in-hand with calls for deep social change, and yet we know very little about how real and enduring social transformation comes about and how — if at all — it can or should be initiated, fostered or steered. 'Transformations towards Sustainability' is one of the three major thematic lines of activity of Future Earth, the new international hub coordinating research on global environmental change and sustainability, along with 'Dynamic Planet' and 'Global Sustainable Development'. As a direct contribution to this initiative, the International Social Science Council recently launched a research programme on Transformations to Sustainability in the first significant global effort to address knowledge gaps around social transformation.

Both Future Earth and the Transformations to Sustainability Programme are committed to a new approach to research for sustainability. Science as usual is not going to be successful in addressing climate change or other environmental challenges. Change is needed, and urgently, in how we do science, if we want to help accelerate transitions to a sustainable and just world. A transformations approach to sustainability research demands integrated, solutions-oriented science that takes account of the complexity of the challenges, research that involves the appropriate scientific disciplines, from social sciences and humanities to natural sciences and engineering; which focuses on specific problems in specific places; and crucially, which engages with society in its many dimensions in identifying the challenges, framing the research questions, designing and implementing the research, interpreting the findings and disseminating and using the results.

However, integrated, transdisciplinary research involving multiple stakeholders and places is difficult and done in various ways with varying results by different communities of practice. We need now to go beyond enumerating the challenges, obstacles or even successes, to pull together and learn from what we know about transdisciplinary research to enhance its quality and usefulness more generally.
The clean energy transition - based on the findings of the IPCC and others- is a highly political issue. It touches the way how society and especially the economy is organized, but also requires change to a personal and community level. Powerful interests of all status quo advocates are at stake and there exists not at all a consensus on how to transform and where to transform to. Hence, research on possible decarbonization pathways is a tricky issue that led researchers to involve stakeholders more strongly in the scientific process. Reasons behind this are (at least) twofold: First, engaging stakeholders more actively can facilitate access to issue-specific insider information that helps to take scientific uncertainty and consequent improve the research process. Second, such involvement is perceived by the scientific community as a way to increase the influence of research on decision-making in political and economic arenas. However, these developments challenge the classical way scientific research is carried out and raise the question of "objectiveness" and value- and interest-driven research results.

We use the case of clean energy transition in Germany and Europe to systematize and discuss arguments for and against stakeholder based science and put them in a meta-scientific context. By doing so, we tackle the following questions: What kind of knowledge can be generated from stakeholder dialogues involving actors with varying degrees of influence in society and how can it be used? Which are the limitations of the so called co-production of knowledge? How can researchers coordinate and evaluate influence that stakeholders have on their research process? What kind of trade-offs exist in the way research involves stakeholders and what implications do different approaches have for the science-policy interface? Our discussion paper thus investigates the influence of stakeholder based science on research «validity» and «objectivity», and its effects on research processes.

A quiet revolution is taking place that began a decade ago on a small Pacific island. A group of trans disciplinary academics had gathered to enjoy the sun, great company and discuss how they could share data in a way that would be scalable and replicable. The data would be based on the trade in the world economy, and have detailed sets of environmental accounts for countries globally. When these data sets were all used together, the impact could be transformational. Complex global problems, such as understanding indicators of climate change, could be modelled and scenario tested. Academics from across the world could contribute and upload environmental and economic data, to be used with a multi-regional input-output database. The database and user friendly interface has now been uploaded to a cloud based platform. In 2014 this idyllic dream came to fruition in the form of the Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab). The IELab is transformational in bringing together academics, early career researchers, and users to better understand the environmental impacts of consumption, production and trade.

Now that the lessons have been learned for environmental data using economic modelling, researchers are developing a network to establish the global Social Footprint Laboratory (SFL). Where the IELab can be used to model carbon, energy and water footprints, the SFL will model social footprints such as labour or inequality. Social

footprints are already being used to demonstrate the inequality in trade between countries, the 'Master/Servant' relationships between producing and consuming nations, and the embedded social impacts such as accidents and even workplace deaths associated with production. The development of indicators in the SFL will provide a focus on basic needs and the capacity to engage local stakeholders to define and model relevant indicators for transformational change for social sustainability, as well as develop networks for data collection, sharing and use. The power and innovation of the project is to enhance and extend the existing economic and environmental data and structures of the IELab, with the critical social data and indicators required to identify, guide and monitor changes towards sustainability.

The development of these cloud based tools will bring together users such as governments, businesses, non-government organisations (NGO's), academic research institutions and international institutions worldwide to start to understand the drivers of globally and locally complex problems such as climate change and inequality. The SFL, when developed, will also help to monitor multidimensional progress against social, environmental and economic goals such as the UN Post 2015 Sustainable Development goals. An important part of the process of developing the SFL will be bringing together users to form a network and creating the knowledge links essential for transformational change. This network will complement the existing Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), which is an open network of research and academic institutions and think-tanks in the Asia-Pacific region, currently coordinated through UN ESCAP in Bangkok. Even without the virtual laboratory, the establishment of such a global network concerned with the collection, use and dissemination of social impact data will be transformational. The case studies developed as part of this project will also add to the transformational change through demonstration to the different user groups of how the data in the SFL can be applied.

Existing data sets on social indicators such as employment, income, poverty and child labour have already been used with the multi-regional input-output databases, in the IELab and the Social Hotspots Database, proving viability of this project. A transformational aspect of this project will be in bringing together early career researchers in developing countries to gather the data and involving end users with the development of the tool.

This paper will present the transformational work on the IELab, giving examples of how the network has enabled early career researchers to conduct and publish and share practical experiences of building a virtual laboratory in Australia and scaling it to a global capacity. It will also outline the proposed SFL project and network as part of the Transformation to Sustainability Programme, and showcase some of the social footprinting studies conducted to date and how this multidisciplinary work can contribute to solutions oriented research on climate change

With academic and community partners in Mexico, Brazil, Kenya, Canada, the United States, and the European Union, the FEAST (Food: Engaging in Action for Sustainable Transformation) Social Footprint Laboratory focuses on co-creating and sharing knowledge about innovative, community-scale solutions to the interrelated challenges of climate change, poverty, and food insecurity. We take as our starting point practical initiatives that have demonstrated potential to improve access to healthy food, build resilient communities, and contribute to transformation to more sustainable food production and consumption practices. These include: promoting new as well as traditional climate-smart production techniques; building community capacity to engage in agroecology and