2012) or to warm conditions in the tropical South Atlantic as observed in 2009. However the 2014 rainfall and flood anomalies have been related to warm conditions in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean and to exceptional positive anomalies in the Subtropical South Atlantic. Rainfall deficits and droughts have been attributed to El Niño events (e.g. 1998), or to warm conditions in the tropical north Atlantic (e.g. 2005) or to a combination of both oceanic features (e.g. 2010).

## O-1119a-01

### Evolution rain-vegetation-agricultural yields in the watershed of the Bouregreg (Morocco) from 1980 to 2009

ZA. Tra Bi (1); G. Mahe (2); T. Brou, (3)

(1) Allassane Ouattara University, Geography Department, Boukant, Ivory Coast; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Milieu et Environnement, Montpellier cedex 5, France; (3) UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UAG, UR), Saint Denis, France

Bouregreg Watershed (central Northwest of Morocco) belongs to the agricultural area of Morocco. The agricultural area of the country is only 20% of its national territory, where a strong agricultural and pastoral attractiveness for wet areas like Bouregreg watershed. This watershed is subject to a Mediterranean semiarid climate. Precipitations that fall are estimated, on average, 400 mm per year. They are unevenly distributed over the basin. Thus, the altitude is causing a significant rainfall contrast between Northeast parts of the basin where rainfall rising to 760 mm per year and Southwest areas where they drop to less than 350 mm per year. In addition, climate dynamics of this space, since the 1970s, is marked by strong climate variability with a downward trend in rainfall. This is a major concern for the agricultural and pastoral production; especially that agriculture is mainly rained. The crop production system (natural or cultivated) is heavily influenced by the soil and climate conditions in Bouregreg watershed.

This study analyzes the interaction between changes in precipitation and dynamics of crop production from 1980 to 2009. It is a component of the SIGMED (project Spatial approach to the impact of agricultural activities in the Maghreb or sediment transport and water resources in river basins) and the study focuses on the impact of droughts and wet periods on crop production. To achieve this goal, a time series of comparative statistical analysis is first performed on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), made in space mesh of 8 km x 8 km, and rainfall series. In holding the large spatial variations in rainfall in the basin, the analysis is made by homogeneous climatic unit. Then, a special statistical analysis is performed on the dynamics of agricultural production, frequencies and intensities of agricultural drought. Droughts and their intensity are determined by linear regression of cereal production with a 95% confidence interval.

The analysis of the evolution of vegetation reveals significant interannual variation in plant activity (37% coefficient of variation), with a marked tendency to decline in the summer. A break in the dynamics of plant activity of the basin is observed in 1999: Reductions are 13% and plant activity maxima are before 1995. The largest areas are located downstream, in the center and south of the basin. The analysis of changes in rainfall also highlights an interannual variation of 30 to 40%, with deviations from the average, greater than 120 mm. Paradoxically, there is no annual downward trend in rainfall amounts in downstream, the center and the south of the basin, but in the northeast that is the wettest area of the basin. In addition, the observation of a significant decrease of vegetation in the summer is not correlated to changes in rainfall. For cons, the correlation between precipitation and vegetation change in wet period (growing season) is important. The analysis of the evolution of wheat (soft and hard) and agricultural droughts (the three grains representing ¾ of agricultural production of the basin) allows to notice a declining intra seasonal dynamic of rainfall amounts during wet periods. Agricultural drought is particularly great between 1990 and 2002. Analysis of drought frequency for all three cereals allows concluding that the period from 1980 to 2009 was marked by eleven important agricultural droughts. The intensities of droughts between 1990 and 2002 are between 60 and 80%

for these cereals. Thus, the high productions of certain grains such as wheat are mainly related to the conquests of new lands. Yield reductions are offset by an extension of cultivation areas at the expense of forests and fallow land. In addition, the overall decline in plant activity in summer is related to increasing grazing pressure and thus to a rapid depletion of crop residues. This further leads to another pressure on forest vegetation and scrub.

## O-1119a-02

### Monitoring and seasonal forecasting of droughts in China

X. Yuan (1)

(1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Persistent hydrologic extreme events such as droughts have devastating impacts on the human and natural systems. Their occurrences are associated with anomalous atmospheric moisture transport which may be linked to variations of large-scale climate phenomena (e.g., ENSO), and their severities and durations are also influenced by land-atmosphere coupling that can enhance existing extremes. They may be further exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and human water consumption. Improving our monitoring and forecasting capability of droughts, and facilitating adaptations through establishing climate service systems at regional to global scales, are among the grand challenges proposed by the WCRP, and are the core themes of the GEWEX/RHP. Focusing on the major river basins in China, I will show the quality of the latest satellite surface soil moisture retrievals produced by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, the China Water and the drought predictability and forecast skill based on North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models.

As compared with in-situ observations at 312 stations in China and global reanalysis, the ESA CCI soil moisture products provide independent drought information over sparsely observed regions such as northwestern China and the active microwave product with better vegetation penetration works the best in southern China. Although remote sensing products can only detect less than 60% of drought months over most in-situ stations, they capture the responses of inter-annual drought variations to ENSO at river basin scales quite well.

For drought forecasting using NMME models, the drought predictability is quantified by using a perfect model assumption. Drought predictability and forecast skill are positively correlated, but they vary depending on seasons, regions and forecast leads. Higher drought predictability is found over regimes where ENSO has more significant impact. For the ENSO-affected regimes, both drought predictability and forecast skill in ENSO years are higher than that in neutral years.

The outputs from NMME climate forecast models are bias corrected and downscaled to drive a hydrologic model to produce hydrologic drought (in terms of soil moisture or runoff anomaly) forecasts over river basins in China. Hydrologic hindcasts will be performed and evaluated against in-situ station observations and satellite products for a comprehensive analysis.

## O-1119a-03

### Trends in Precipitation Extremes over Mississippi and Yangtze River Basins in CMIPS Models

Z. Pan (1)

(1) Saint Louis University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America

Both central-eastern portions of U.S. and China are prone to increasing flooding from Mississippi River and Yangtze River Basin respectively. This presentation contrasts historical and projected spatial-temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in these two large river basins using 31 CMIPS models' historical and RCP8.5 experiments. Results show that 1) over both river basins, the heaviest rainfall events have increased in recent decades while the lightest precipitation reduced in frequency. Over Mississippi River Basin, both the lightest precipitation (<2.5
mm/day) and heaviest (>50 mm/day) would decrease in frequency notably after mid-2020s while intermediate events occur more frequently in future; whereas over the Yangtze River Basin, all categories of precipitation are projected to increase in frequency over the coming decades. 2) Although the consensus of CMIP5 models was able to reproduce well domain-time mean and even time-averaged spatial distribution of precipitation, they failed to simulate precipitation trends both in spatial distribution

and time means. In a similar fashion, models captured well statistics of precipitation but they had difficulty in representing temporal variations of different precipitation intensity categories. 3) The well-documented 2nd half of the 20th century surface summer cooling over the two river basins showed different associations with precipitation trends with higher anti-correlation between them over the U.S. region, implying different processes contributing to the cooling mechanisms of the two river basins.

# 1119b - Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1119b-01

#### Attribution of Hydrological Extreme Events and the Need for National Inventories of Loss and Damage

M. Allen (1)

(1) University of Oxford, School of geography and the environment, Oxford, United Kingdom

The Report of Working Group I (Physical Science Basis) of the IPCC assessed the evidence for trends in hydro-meteorological extremes and the growing literature on the attribution of extreme weather events, in a probabilistic sense, to anthropogenic drivers. In a very small number of cases, these event attribution studies have been carried through to hydrological impacts, but this remains a new and emerging science.

The Report of Working Group II (Impacts of Climate Change) of the IPCC reported on numerous studies of the hydrological impacts of observed climate change, but because of the paucity of the literature on "end-to-end" attribution, stepped back from making strong statements attributing these impacts to anthropogenic influence. Owing to the multiple uses of the phrase "Climate Change" in the IPCC and UNFCCC, there is considerable scope for confusion on this point, so I will review these issues carefully. The central question is the attribution of harm: how strong is the evidence that past greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of anthropogenic influence on climate have caused actual harm through their impact on hydrological extreme events?

I will argue, perhaps controversially, that these specific issues have evolved in such a way that the IPCC, or any global review process, is no longer the appropriate venue for their assessment: quantifying harm involves value judgments and region-specific contextualising and confounding factors such that it is often impossible to make any useful generalisations. Instead, the role of bodies such as the IPCC should become the assessment and recommendation of methods and standards of evidence, while actual assessments are carried out at a regional or national level.

I will provide a general, non-specialist over-view of the science of Probabilistic Event Attribution, specifically focussing on its application to recent flood and drought events. I will explain how different ways of framing the attribution question can yield different-seeming conclusions even if confronted with the same evidence, requiring the broader community to engage with these issues and not simply rely upon "attribution specialists".

In the context of extreme hydrological events, I will then ask what kind of extreme event is likely to be most important in determining the overall level of climate change harm: is it those very extreme events that would have been "effectively impossible" (or, more accurately, just very, very unlikely) in the absence of climate change, or is the much broader range of events that have simply been made somewhat more (or less) likely by climate change. I will argue it is often the second category that is overlooked in national climate impact assessments because the role of climate change is relatively subtle, yet because there are simply so many more of these events, their cumulative impact could be quite profound.

All this builds up to the conclusion that, if countries are

to get serious about quantifying Loss and Damage from climate change -- and it remains very much a matter of debate whether they will -- then they have no option but to work towards national or shared regional attribution services to allow them to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in regional hydrology, accounting for location-specific factors. I will discuss what this might involve, and present some ideas on how to go forward.

### O-1119b-01

#### Future changes in extreme streamflow over the Amazonian sub-basins

M. Guimberteau (1); J. Ronchail (2); J.C. Espinoza (3); M. Lengaigne (4); B. Sultan (5); J. Polcher (6); G. Drapeau (7); J.L. Guyot (8); A. Ducharme (9); P. Ciais (1)

(1) LSCE, CEA, CNRS, UVSG, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (3) Instituto Geofísico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (4) LOCEAN, Paris, France; (5) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (6) CNRS, Ltd, Paris, France; (7) LOCEAN, Université Paris Diderot and PRODIG, Paris, France; (8) IRD, Brasília, Brazil; (9) Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, CNRS, EPHE, UMR 7619 METIS, Paris, France

The Amazon basin plays an important role in regulating the local and global climate since the discharge at its outlet contributes nearly 20% of global freshwater inputs (Callède et al., 2010). Streamflow changes have been characterized by more severe extreme values on the main stream for about forty years. At Obidos, the last gauging station before the outlet, the high flows significantly increase by 13% over 1903-2011 and 150,000 m³/s almost every year. The increase in streamflow over the last two decades is updated from Callède et al., 2014). The low flows are stable over the period 1903-2011 but significantly decrease by 16% over the last twenty years. The resulting increase in the annual amplitude of discharge during the last two decades is marked by severe droughts (2005 and 2010) and floods (2002, 2009, 2012 and 2014), mainly attributed to large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes (Espinoza et al., 2012, 2013, 2014). The populations living near the rivers whose activity is regulated by the present annual cycle of waters are particularly sensitive to these extreme streamflow events. During high floods, boat trips are dangerous and the mobility of the populations is reduced. Severe low flows make the boat trips longer and increase fish mortality. Thus, food prices increase and directly impact the local economy. Given these facts, it is crucial to estimate the future of the hydrological extremes in the Amazonian basin. A future warmer climate (between -1.5 and +5.0°C by 2100). The model ORCHIDEE ORGANising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms), the land component of the IPSL global climate model (GCM), is able to accurately simulate the present-time streamflow in many stations over the Amazon basin (Guimberteau et al, 2012). ORCHIDEE is therefore used to provide discharge projections at sub-basin scale under future climate. Climate change scenarios over the Amazon basin were built with the delta downscaling method approach from up to eight AR4 GCMs based on three emission scenarios for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under a medium-emission scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River, but the low flows decrease by 10%. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation (P), more flooding events are expected (high flows increase by 7%). By contrast, simulated P decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches -50%. In the north, the
low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east. Finally, the southern sub-basins that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to P change (increase in streamflow elasticity to P by up to 35%) than the western sub-basins, experiencing high runoff coefficient and no change in streamflow elasticity to P.

Callède J., Guyot J., Ronchail J. 'L'Hôte Y. Niel H. & de Oliveira J. Evolution du débit de l'Amazone à Obidos de 1903 à 1999, Hydrol. Sci. J., 2004, 49, 85-98

Callède J., Cochonnet G., Ronchail J., Alves V., Guyot J., Guimarães V. & De Oliveira E. Les apports en eau de l'Amazone à l'Ocean Atlantique, Rev. Sci. Eau., 2010, 23, 247-273

Espinoza J. C., Ronchail J., Guyot J. J. Junquas C. Drapeau G., Martinez J. M., Santini W., Vauchel P., Lavado W., Ordoñez J. & Espinoza R. From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries, Environ. Res. Lett., 2012, 1, 024008

Espinoza J. C., Ronchail J., Frappart F., Lavado W., Santini W. & Guyot J. The Major Floods in the Amazonas River and Tributaries (Western Amazon) during the 1970-2012 Period: A Focus on the 2012 Flood, J. Hydrometeorol., 2013, 14, 1000-1008

Espinoza J. C., Marengo J. A., Ronchail J., Carpio J. M., Flores L. N. & Guyot J. L. The extreme 2014 flood in southwestern Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient, Environ. Res. Lett., 2014, 9, 124007

Guimberteau M., Drapeau G., Ronchail J., Sultan B., Polcher J., Martinez J., Prigent G., Guyot J., Cochonnet G., Espinoza J., Filizola N., Fraize P., Lavado W., De Oliveira E., Pombosa R., Noriega L. & Vauchel P. Discharge simulation in the sub-basins of the Amazon using ORCHIDEE forced by new datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 2012, 16, 911-935

## O-1119b-02

### Fires in Amazon: Comparison between land use and palaeoclimatic changes

Silva Cordeiro (1); B. Turcq (2); P. Moreira-Turcq (3); I. Silva Moreira (4); A. Sifeddine (5); R. De Aragão Ribeiro Rodrigues (6); FFL Simões Filho (7); GS. Martins (1); AB. Santos (1); MB. Barbosa (8); MC. Guilles Da Conceição (9); JCS. Seoane (10); H. Evangelista (11)

(1) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geologia, Niterói, Brazil; (2) Instituto de Recherche pour le Développement, LOCEAN, Lima, Peru; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, GET, Lima, Peru; (4) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geologia, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (5) Instituto de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD. Umr locean (ird/ cns/cns/mnh), Paris, France; (6) Embraq, Embraq agregasilpastoril, Sinop, Brazil; (7) CNEN, Institute of nuclear engineering, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (8) Vale, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (9) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geologia, Niterói, Brazil; (10) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Geologia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (11) Universidade do estado Rio de Janeiro, Laramig, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Interpreting the geological record of Amazon biomass combustion requires comparing charcoal accumulation rates in various biomes at different time scales. Charcoal accumulation rates, a proxy for palaeofire records, were obtained in sediment cores from Amazon lakes surrounded by several vegetation types and from reservoir in an intense land use change region. The records presented in this study were obtained in the following areas in a reservoir in Alta Floresta region (northern Mato Grosso State); ii) Lago do Saci (southern Pará State), a lake close to Alta Floresta and located in the southern border of Pará State; iii) a bog in an ecotone area in the Humaitá region (southern Amazonas State); iv) lakes in lateritic iron crust of the Carajás Hills (southeastern Pará State); v) Lago Comprido, a floodplain lake close to the Amazon River and surrounded by tropical rain forest (Monte Alegre, Pará State; vi) Lagoa da Pata in the Morro dos Seis Lagos alkaline complex (São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Amazonas State) and vii) Lago Caracarã, a secluded lake in the northern Amazon cerrado (Roraima State). The highest charcoal accumulation rates were observed for modern records related to an intense change in land use at Alta

Floresta, which had no previous during the Holocene history of the Amazon. High charcoal accumulation rates that were observed in the Carajás region during low lake level phases in the Amazon in the mid-Holocene were comparable to those at the onset of the human settlement in Alta Floresta region. An increase in charcoal accumulation rate was observed in the late Holocene when the lake level was high, suggesting an interaction between climates and human presence. Low charcoal accumulation rates are typical of modern high rainfall environments, as observed in Lagoa da Pata where the environment is not susceptible to occurrences of wildfires even during relatively drier climatic phases. Low charcoal accumulation rates also exist in the relatively dry cerrado (savanna type) biome even during relatively dry phases in the Caracarã region where the savanna-type vegetation biomass is lower and thus generates less charcoal particles than forest ecosystems. The timing of fires correlated well with the mid-Holocene dry climate phase in Brazil. These events may be related to changes in the high-resolution record of CO2 in ice cores from the last 11,000 years. These records indicate an increase in CO2 concentration of 25 p.p.m.v. that occurred between 7000 and 1000 years BP. Anomalies of 5 ppm in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere identified at the Taylor Dome station may similarly be related to the high variability in forest fire occurrence in the Amazon region recorded by these high charcoal accumulation rates that can be associated principally with human activity during the late Holocene, especially considering from higher lake levels that indicate a wetter climate compared to the mid Holocene.

## O-1119b-03

### Intense storm activity during the Little Ice Age on the French Mediterranean coast

L. Dezileau (1); P. Blanchameche (2)

(1) Université Montpellier II, GeoSciences, Sciences de la terre de l'eau et du'environnement, Montpellier, France; (2) CNRS, Université montpellier 3, Lattes, France

Understanding long-term variability in the frequency of intense storm activity is important for assessing whether changes are controlled by climate evolution. Understanding this variability is also important for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss. Our ability to make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 50 years) instrument record of storm activity. Storm- induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and storm activity on longer timescales. In this study, we present a record of intense events that have occurred in the French Mediterranean coast over the past 1500 years. The identification of these extreme events is based on the analysis of sediment cores from Gulf of Aigues-Mortes lagoons that contain a specific sedimentary and geochemical signature associated with intense storms.

Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeoclimate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics. The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/ European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.

## O-1119b-04

### Characterization of drought and soil moisture in context of climate change: results and operational applications of ClimSec project in France

JM. Soubeyroux (1); P. Josse (2); JP. Vidal (3); E. Martin (4) ; C. Page (5); F. Habets (6)
(1) Métoé-France, Délim, Toulouse, France; (2) Métoé France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France; (3) IRSTEA, Lyon, France; (4) Métoé France, Cnrm-game, Toulouse, France; (5) CERFACS, Toulouse, France; (6) CNRS, UMR 7619 Metis, université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France

Evolution of water resource is one of the main steps of climate change. The Climat project (2008-2011) focused on the impact of the climate change on drought and soil moisture over France by using a high resolution climatological reanalysis since 1958 based from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer model, the Safran/Isba/Modouc suite.

The high-resolution 1958-2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface model the hydrological model. Metoetic droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI) – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI). Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought events statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow). Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989-1990) to short hot and dry periods (2003). Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly on both the time scale and the variable considered. This multilevel and multiscale drought climatology served as a basis for assessing the impacts of climate change on droughts in France.

At the end of the project, the new drought indices were adapted for the operational hydrological monitoring and used for the qualification of drought event in real time, namely for the 2011 spring drought.

These indices were also calculated in future climate from the various regionalized climatic projections available over France. Three particular experiences in socioeconomic scenarios, climatic models and downscaling methods have been run to estimate the relative importance different uncertainties for drought evolution.

In the same time, a diagnosis on drought evolution can be established with a schedule much shorter and more intense for the agricultural drought linked to the deficit of soil water than for meteorological drought in relation with the precipitation. The climatic projections suggest that France could know at the end of the XXth century a quasi-continuous drought with a strong threshold, totally unknown in the present climate.

## O-1119b-05

### Analysis hydrometeorological events of floods in the watershed Mono shared Benin-Togo (West Africa)

E. Amoussou (1); Y. Tramblay (2); SH. Totin Vodounon (3); G. Mahe (2); J.E. Paturel (4); P. Ribstein (5); L. Desroix (6); M. Boko (7)

(1) University of Parakou, Geographia, Parakou, Benin; (2) Université de Montpellier 2, Ird, laboratoire hydrosciences montpellier, Montpellier, France; (3) University of Parakou, Geography, Parakou, Benin; (4) IRD, HydroSciences Montpellier, Abdijan, Ivory Coast; (5) Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire sylphe, Paris, France; (6) UMR PALOC, Lmi patoa campus international de recherches uca/ird de hann, Dakar-Hann, Senegal; (7) University of Abomey-Calavi, Geography, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

The recurrence of extreme anomalies of precipitations involving of the floods or the droughts is a normal component of the natural variability of the climate. The harmful effects of the floods these last have strong incidences socio-economic and ecological and involved

human losses of life and property damages. The vulnerability with these natural risks is high in West Africa and basin of Mono in particular, where the populations tend to occupy the most exposed zones more and more. The objective is to model the distribution of the risings entering to the dam Nangbèto thanks to hydrological model GR4J with the step of daily time to assess the risks of flood in the low valley of the river.

The data used cover the period 1961 to 2010. They is the daily outputs (m3.s⁻¹), the evapotranspiration (mm/jour, calculated according to method FAO) and average precipitations on the basin (mm/day). The various methods of space interpolation of the rains were tested (linear, cubic, Thiessen, simple average). Model GR4J was useful with modeling of the risings upstream and the stopping of 1988 to 2010 to appreciate the effects of the dam.

The results show a marked variation in rainfall by increasing annual maximum daily followed by an increase in ETP. The rates recorded in output Nangbèto dam are equivalent to those recorded input, especially during floods, showing the weak regulatory role of the dam and the very limited capacity of the reservoir. The annual maximum incoming flow at the dam can be modeled by an extreme value distribution (GEV) Fréchet-type, weibull measured at the outlet of the dam after a GEV law Weibull (bounded). The dominant runoff generation mechanism in the basin is the gradual rising waters associated with increased saturation of the soil, rather than isolated episodes of rainfall. The analysis of flood flows between 1988 and 2010 showed no increase in flood magnitude during this period. Finally the effectiveness of the model to reproduce GR4J flood flows has been tested showing that the observed floods are simulated during calibration. However, validation tests over several periods with different climatic characteristics show a degradation of performance criteria and the model as one moves away from the calibration period, showing the instability of the model parameters in the time. Under these conditions, the use of such a model to assess future risks future flooding is risky and it is necessary to consider alternative approaches.

## 1119-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1119-01

### Extreme rainfall analysis and water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria

O. Adeaga (1)

(1) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, France

Climate change poses unique challenges to global socio-economic development and growth of the societies due to multiple shocks and stresses concurrently faced. This call for studies to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the society, Extreme rainfall events today pose a serious threat to many populated and urbanized areas worldwide since anthropogenic climate change is now widely considered to have the potential not just to cause perturbations in the weather but also to create major discontinuities in many complex natural and human systems.

Hence, the need for an accurate estimate of frequency and distribution of extreme rainfall events can significantly aid policy planning in the area of land use planning and water resources system design that suits the harmonizing plan of their enormous physical structure and hydrological system. Quality precipitation information remains an indispensable requirement for warning systems, hydraulic structures design, risk assessment and hydrological modelling. Hence, reliable spatial information on precipitation distribution and climate change information scale remains an important tool towards attaining a sustainable socio-economic development of a region, in the wave of climate change and variability.

In this study an attempt was made to address the potential effect of extreme rainfall events on the water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria, in the aftermath of observed current global change scenarios. These analysis entails fitting of statistical distribution of the monthly rainfall dataset (1960 – 2005) for the analysis of extreme events and generation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. Also, the threshold level was used to evaluate the extreme conditions. This is necessary in other to address potential climate change effect in terms extreme rainfall
occurrence and water resources system sensitivity in
Nigeria.

P-1119-02

Groundwater induced flood estimation in
extreme rainfall context; methodological
approach applied to Somme basin (France)

N. Amraoui (1) ; JJ. Seguin (2)

(1) BRGM, Water environment & ecotechnologies division, Orleans, France; (2) BRGM, Orleans, France

Climate change is expected to modify hydrological cycle, and extreme events would be more frequent. Increasing extreme precipitation (frequency and intensity) projected in northern Europe and continental Europe (IPCC WG2 AR5 chapter 21) would result in an increase of flood risk. In chalytic basins located in northern France (Somme catchment) and the United Kingdom (Pang and Lambour catchments), groundwater flooding, with return periods superior to 100 years, has already occurred in winter 2000/2010. The estimation of groundwater contribution to flood peak under extreme rainfall context remains difficult because of a lack of appropriate methods and data. Nevertheless, this estimation is a decisive element for policy makers to assess and manage the flood risks.

In the Somme basin, a probabilistic approach to develop «extreme» climate scenarios based on cumulative rainfall return period of 1000 years and hydrodynamic modeling of the groundwater and rivers system were used. A statistical extreme value analysis using a long rainfall time series allowed defining rainfall events return period of 1000 years. Correlative analysis rainfall-discharge of the Somme river at the watershed outlet (Abbeville station) performed with cumulative rainfall over n days show that the best correlation is obtained with a total of n=180 rainy days. In addition, estimating the river discharge of return period 1000 years was made by fitting a probability distribution for extreme events (GEV law)

Several scenarios were simulated with the hydrodynamic model of the Somme basin; they differ in the temporal distribution of daily rainfall over the period of 180 days, the groundwater level at the onset of the rainy millennial episode, and the value of base flow of the river at the start of the rainy millennial episode.

The results highlight the rainfall distribution importance on the maximum discharges and the influence of the water table and the base flow of the river at the onset of the rainy period. It is also clear that for such climatic events, the groundwater contribution to the Somme river discharge remains important, between 65% and 72% of the flow according to the scenarios.

P-1119-03

Paleoclimate reconstructions over eastern
Andes of Perú and Bolivia based on stable
isotopes 18O of speleothems

J.APAэтэгуй (1) ; F. Cruz (2) ; A. Sifeddine (3) ; B. Turcq (4) ; JL. Guyot (5) ; JP. Bernal (6) ; JC. Espinoza (7) ; M. Vuille (8)

(1) Peruvian Geophysical Institute IGP, Lima, Peru; (2) Instituto de Geociencias Universitaria de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Umr locean (ird/upmc/cnrs/ mnhn), Paris, France; (4) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, LOCEAN, Lima, Peru; (5) IRD, Lima, Peru; (6) Centro de Geociencias, Universidad nacional autónoma de méxico, Querétaro, Mexico; (7) Institut Geofísico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (8) University of Albany, SUNY, Albany, United States of America

During the last years, especially efforts on paleoclimate reconstructions have shown interest in the behavior of South American Monsoon System (SAMS) during the last 2 ky. Since there is considerable concern that the SAMS dynamics will be significantly affected by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, there is an urgent need to improve document and understand the causes of Monsoon variations in response to natural forcing during the most recent past period. For instance, climate modeling studies and additional paleoclimate records of ocean and atmospheric conditions are needed to best define the relationships between SAMS rainfall and ocean- atmosphere variability during the late Holocene.

In this sense, we have developed stable isotopes (818O, 813C) and trace elements time series (Ex: Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) from calcite speleothems collected in the eastern Andes of Perú (Rioja - San Martin, ~6° S) and Bolivia (Torotoro - Potosí, ~18° S). These records allow us to reconstruct past changes in the SAMS and local hydrological conditions during the Holocene with special interest through most of the last two millennia. Our results evidence different modes of SAMS variability arriving from decadal (64 yrs) to millennial timescales (1500 yrs). Comparison between Andean records and other South American proxies records reveals spatial changes in rainfall distribution and SAMS intensity over different time periods. Such variations in SAMS suggest interactions of ocean- atmospheric modes triggering teleconnections associated with hydroclimate conditions reconstructed in the SAMS region.

Moreover, it is worth noting that it is necessary to develop more proxies record in the southern hemisphere and key areas of the SAMS for better understand the climate system. Additionally, it is also important to reproduce these changes by coupled ocean-atmosphere models in order to define and recognize better relationships and mechanism that could affect this system. These approaches would bring invaluable tools for define possible effects of climate change in SAMS and reduce population affected by extreme events in South America.

P-1119-04

Extreme events effects on dissolved inorganic and organic carbon yields and fluxes in the watersheds of tropical volcanic islands, examples from Guadeloupe (FWI)

M. Benedetti (1) ; E. Lloret (2) ; C. Dessert (3)

(1) IPGP-SCP Univ. Paris Diderot, Aquatic Geochemistry, paris, France; (2) Université Lille 1, Lille, France; (3) IPGP-SCP Univ. Paris Diderot, Geochemistry and cosmochemistry, paris, France

Organic matter is an important factor that cannot
be neglected when considering global carbon cycle.
New dataincluding organic matter geochemistry at
the small watershed scale are needed to elaborate
more constrainedcarbon cycle and climatic models.
The objectives are to estimate the DOC and DIC yields
exported from smalltropical watersheds and to give
strong constraints on the carbon hydrodynamic of these
systems. To answer thesequations, we have studied the
geochemistry of eleven small watersheds around Basse-
Terre volcanic Island in theFrench West Indies during
different hydrological regimes from 2006 to 2008 (i.e.
low water level versus floods).We propose a complete
set of carbon measurements, including DOC and DIC
concentrations, 13C data, and lesscommonly, some
spectroscopic indicators of the nature of organic matter.
The DOC/DIC ratio varies between 0.07and 0.30 in
low water level and between 0.25 and 1.97 during floods,
indicating that organic matter is mainlyexported during
flood events. On the light of the isotopic composition of
DOC, ranging from 32.8 to 26.2hduring low water level
and from 30.1 to 27.2hduring floods, we demonstrate that
export of organic carbon isimainly controlled by perennial
saprolite groundwaters, except for flood events during
which rivers are also stronglyinfluenced by soil erosion.
The mean annual yields ranged from 2.5 to 5.7 t km 2
year 1 for the DOC and from 4.8 to 19.6 t km 2 year 2
for the DIC and exhibit a non-linear relationship with
slopes of watersheds. The flashfloods explain around 60%
of the annual DOC flux and between 25 and 45% of the
DIC flux, highlighting the important role of these extreme
meteorochemical events on global carbon export in small
tropical volcanic islands.From a carbon mass balance
point of view the exports of dissolved carbon mass from
small volcanic islands are important should be included in
global organic carbon budgets.

P-1119-05

Modeling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge: Effect of wave coupling, offshore winds, and tidal level

PH. Bilgera (1) ; C. Villanoy, (1) ; O. Cabrera, (1)

(1) The Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
Super Typhoon Haiyan, with wind speeds exceeding 300 km h⁻¹ generated a storm surge in San Pedro Bay reaching heights of more than 6m in Tacloban City. Severe winds and storm surge heights caused catastrophic structural damage and casualties. Delft Dashboard (DBD), an open-source standalone Matlab based graphical user interface, was used to develop a coupled flow and wave storm surge model to understand the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge development and propagation. Model results corroborated by field observations showed that as the storm center entered Leyte Gulf, strong northeaster winds prevailing on the northern part of San Pedro Bay caused sea level to recede by 1-2m. This was followed by the development of the surge off the towns of Palo and Tanauan. This surge then propagated northwards to Tacloban and Basey as the winds shifted to the north when the storm center made landfall. Various idealized simulations were also designed to determine the effect of wave coupling, offshore winds, and tidal phase, with results highlighting importance of physical processes such as wave dissipation, wind-forced flow, and non-linear tide and surge interactions.

P-1119-06

## Future trends of South American droughts: comparison between the reference period 1961-1990, and the RCM-CORDEX projections in the period 2071-2100

JD. Giraldo Osorio (1)

(1) Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Civil Engineering, Bogotá D. C., Colombia

### 1 Introduction

The relationship between positive precipitation anomalies and the warm phase of ENSO phenomenon (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) has been broadly documented in the southern South America (Grimm and Tedeschi, 2009; Grimm, Barros, and Doyle, 2000). Nonetheless, the tropical region of the continent faces drought conditions when El Niño is turned on (Poveda and Salazar, 2004; Marengo, 2004; Fu et al., 2001). Another studies have shown the broad spreading of positive trends in temperature time series, and the negative trend of precipitation time series in some areas of Amazonian basin (Aguilar et al., 2005; Haylock et al., 2006). These positive trends for temperature, and erratic trends for precipitation, are consistent with the climate models projections (Marengo et al., 2009; Urrutia and Vuille, 2009; Cook and Vizy, 2008).

Given the scenario described above, some questions arise about what will happen with South American droughts. Li et al. (2008) showed that, according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Amazon region has been undergone to recurrent drought conditions since 1970s, which were particularly strong during the great drought of 2005 (Zeng et al., 2008). However, it seems that periods of drought in southern South America will be reduced because the spatial re-arrangement of precipitation. The objectives of this project are computing the Dry Spells Length (DSL) for different intensities of drought; as well as, computing trends and future changes on South American droughts using data from Regional Climate Models (RCM).

### 2 Methodology and Results

#### 2.1 Data

Precipitation's time series from Delaware University database (Matsuura and Willmott 2012a; Matsuura and Willmott 2012b) were used in order to compute the climate model's bias from observed data. The future trends of droughts were estimated using RCM from CORDEX project (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). The RCM were developed by SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). The spatial resolution of the models is about 50 km close to the terrestrial equator.

#### 2.2 Drought definition

The SPI was chosen in the present work as drought's metric (Agnew, 2000). The SPI is among the most widely used drought index because its versatility, since it only uses precipitation data. The SPI could be computed using several temporal scales (e. g. 3, 6, 9 or 12 months). The more negative is the SPI, the more intense are the drought

periods.

From the SPI, the depiction of the droughts was done in the reference time window 1961-1990 (also, 1961-1990 was the reference time window to compute the SPI), and in the projected future by the RCM (time window 2071-2100). The droughts were characterized using DSL with a minimal length of two months, together with several levels of drought intensities (through SPI values of 0, -0.5, -1.0, -1.5 and -2.0).

The dry spell length (DSL) time series were built in each grid point. From these time series were computed the mean length of dry spell for each drought intensity, the longest dry spell and was established the number of months in the time windows (i. e. reference and future periods) that were undergo an specific intensity of drought.

#### 2.3 Preliminary results

Initial results show a rise of droughts severity, located in Los Andes mountains from Colombia, Perú and Ecuador. Also, more intense droughts conditions are predicted in the Amazonian basin (tri-border area between Colombia, Peru and Brazil), the Gran Chaco natural region, and southern Chile.

The drought trends are, in general, coherent with the predicted changes on annual mean precipitation, estimated with SMHI-RCM. However, in some regions (e. g. central area of Chile), the rise of drought conditions does not go well with the diminishing on mean precipitation, which suggests a re-arranging of annual cycle of rain.

P-1119-07

## Future precipitation extremes are linked to changes in moisture flux anomalies

L Harrington (1); S. Dean, (2)

(1) New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute,

Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand;

(2) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand

Understanding the response of precipitation extremes to anthropogenic climate change is currently based on a simple thermodynamic link to future warming (proportional to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation). While previous work has identified empirical links between observed events and the occurrence of specific calculation patterns, often containing filamentary bands of anomalous moisture flux, the large-scale dynamics driving extreme precipitation remains poorly characterised. Here, we introduce a diagnostic measure of the explicit link between extreme precipitation events (>99.5th percentile) and incoming moisture flux anomalies. This represents a significant development over previous methods which sought arbitrarily defined 'atmospheric river' events. Robust links are found between anomalous moisture flux and corresponding extreme 24-hour precipitation accumulations, with a particular significance placed on meridional moisture fluxes of tropical origin. Using this metric, we explicitly calculate future changes to the likelihood of precipitation extremes attributed to changes in large-scale moisture and wind fields. Preliminary results of applying this analysis to the CMIP5 ensemble under an RCP8.5 warming scenario are considered, particularly for mid-latitude regions.

P-1119-08

## Global Changes in Drought Historically and under Future Climate Scenarios

J. Kam, (1); S. Justin (1)

(1) Princeton University, Princeton, United States of America

Droughts are extremely costly hydrological events that can have multiple and long-lasting effects on society and ecosystems. Evidence has been put forward that the risk of drought has increased in recent years due to a changing climate and there is an expectation that droughts will become more severe in the future under projected climate scenarios in response to changes in precipitation and increases in atmospheric demand. Furthermore, direct human impacts on the water resources have already had large impacts on water availability locally and may have as much as, if not more, of an impact in the future. The
compound effect of increasing drought severity and increasing water demand is worrisome, especially for the most vulnerable populations.

This work quantifies and analyzes the evolution of drought during the instrumental period (back to the late 19th century) and under future climate projections from CMIP5 models. Drought is analyzed in terms of its characteristics (frequency, area, duration of drought) and the co-evolution of the frequency of precipitation and potential evaporation). The historical analysis is based on updated multi-model land surface simulations driven by a hybrid meteorological dataset that merges available station observations with reanalysis. Drought is quantified based on anomalies in precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, representing different aspects of drought: meteorological, agricultural and hydrological. There are considerable uncertainties in long-term changes because of: uncertainties in changes in precipitation due to station sampling and errors in large-scale datasets (e.g. from satellites and reanalyses); uncertainties in changes in other less well observed surface meteorological variables such as humidity and windspeed, and in surface radiation that drive potential evaporation; and uncertainties among land surface models in how drought propagates from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological drought. In particular, the uncertainties are highest in transitional to dry regions where the station density is generally lower and differences among land surface models becomes important.

Future projections of drought from CMIP5 models indicate an overall propensity towards increased drought severity in many regions due to changes in precipitation seasonality and atmospheric demand. In some regions, such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa, the changes are set against a background of increasing aridity. However, the magnitude of these changes is highly dependent on the climate model in addition to the emissions scenario. We focus on the uncertainty in drought projections with respect to climate model ability to replicate the observational estimates of land-atmosphere coupling as derived from our ensemble of land surface models. Results indicate that the representation of coupling in the models between soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and temperature plays a role in the uncertainty in future projected changes in evapotranspiration with implications for changes in available water and drought.

P-1119-09

## Change of vulnerability towards flooding in the commercial sector

H. Kreibich (1)

(1) German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany

Flood risks emerge from extreme hydrological events and exposure of human activities. Various studies have analysed past flood damage data for trends and tried to attribute it to specific drivers. A large part of the observed upward trend in damage is assumed to be related to socio-economic factors. Whereas changes in exposure are relatively well understood, there is hardly any knowledge about changes in susceptibility, particularly in respect to companies, which are quite heterogeneous but contribute a large share of damage.

Therefore, vulnerability data from companies affected by recent floods in Germany were analysed to gain quantitative information about changes in susceptibility during the last decade and how these changes are linked to flood experience and other physical and social drivers.

Preliminary results reveal that in the case of a flood event, most companies undertake emergency measures. The effectiveness of these measures is increased by recent flood experience, emergency plans, reliable warnings with lead times, and low water levels. Additionally, larger companies that own their buildings seem to be more efficient in undertaking emergency measures. Additionally, many companies undertake precautionary measures after a flood, but still much more could be done. Perhaps the diversity of responsibilities in businesses and the institutional structure create hurdles as well as the level of uncertainty regarding which actions are most cost-effective and will provide significant damage reduction.

P-1119-10

## Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the Ichkeul basin northern Tunisia

M. Mathlouthi (1); F. Lebiδ (2)

(1) Research Laboratory in Science and Technology of Water in INAT, (National agronomic institute of Tunisia (inat), Tunis, Tunisia; (2) National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia (INAT), Génie rural, eaux et forêts, Tunis, Tunisia

Drought is a natural phenomenon that can occur in all regions. Climate variability and climate change in the longer term consequences of economic, social and environmental. It is likely that climate change increases the frequency and duration of droughts, which could contribute to land degradation. One develops the event-based approach tailored to the sub-humid climatic conditions. A dry period is defined as a series of days with daily rainfall less than a given threshold. Unlike the dry period, a dry event may last only one day. Dry events are considered as a sequence of dry days separated by rainfall events from each other. Thus the rainy season is defined as a series of rainfall and subsequent dry events. Rainfall events are defined as the uninterrupted sequence of rainy days, when at last on one day more than a threshold amount of rainfall has been observed. The dry period is noted as the return period of rain is at a Mediterranean climate, is used to illustrate the approach. One focuses here on the evolution of dry events in duration and frequency in the region under the influence of a changing climate. It identifies the longest dry and wet events on the history. For planning purposes, the longest dry spells associated with the various statistical recurrence periods are derived on the basis of the fitted GEV type probability distribution functions. The event-based rainfall analysis is used to calibrate the precipitation models with little rainfall records. The study of the effects of climate change and to generate long synthetic rainfall event time series. The synthetic sequences of rainfall events and dry events are used to define and calibrate simulation models for realistic planning of reservoirs or for estimating water demand irrigation.

P-1119-11

## Historical floods in North Algeria

M. Mohamed (1)

(1) Higher National School of Hydraulics, BLIDA, Algeria

the flood of 1974, which occurred in Kabylie and Algiers regions. This flood has produced 52 dead and 18 000 victims and enormous material damage in Kabylie. The corresponding rates for this event are 2972 m3/s (80-year return period), 2940 m3/s (92-year return period) and 2520 m3/s (130 year return period) at Baghlia, Bellouka and Lakhdaria hydrometric stations respectively in the region of Kabylie. The disaster also affected Algiers. Floods in eastern Algiers, and for the same period, has produced significant damage. At the Baraki station, a flow rate of 1,620 m3/s with a return period of 100 was raised. At the bottom of the Atlas Blidèen, the station of the Rocher des Piégeaux, a flow of 820 m3/s with a return period of 40 was recorded. The floods were followed a rain event, recorded at mountain pass Skamody (Atlas overlooking the Mitidja East) is 620 mm (58% of the annual total) in four days and 310 mm (30% of the annual total) in one day with 32-year return period. It is noted that the return period of rain is not as important as the maximum flow rates recorded for this period. The city of Azzazga in the Kabylie was also the scene of a spectacular flood in October 1971. The disaster killed 40 people. The return period of the recorded flow is 20 years and generator rain of this flood was 182.6 mm in one day with 300 years return period. The danger of these floods, which caused many deaths and material losses, is due to the combination of the nature of rainfall and the region. The case study of Lake Ickheul in north of the region very favorable to flow and the rapid progression of the flood wave.

In Western countries, the floods of Oued Rhiou, occurred in 1993, caused the death of 22 people. The recorded maximum flow was 719 m3/s with a return period of 17 years. In the same region, in 1965, major floods were recorded with 825 m3/s at Oued Rhiou station and 800 m3/s at Relizane station with a 30-year return period. Also on the west of the country (region I), the floods of October 2000 caused 4 deaths. The maximum flow was 550 m3/s with a return period of 80 years. The maximum rainfall recorded for this period was 85 mm with a return
period of 15 years. It finds that almost the maximum daily rainfall can not explain the dangerous flood but it should be considered a combination of relief and the moisture condition of the soil as important parameters in the genesis of these disastrous floods.

P-1119-12

A 2700 cal yr BP extreme flood event
revealed by sediment accumulation in
Amazon floodplains

P. Moreira-Turcq (1) ; B. Turcq (2) ; L Silva Moreira (3) ; RC. Cordeiro (3) ; M. Amorim (3) ; JL. Guyot (4)

(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, GET, Lima, Peru; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, LOCEAN, Lima, Peru; (3) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geoquímica, Niterói, Brazil; (4) IRD, Lima, Peru

Climatic conditions are one of the most important factors affecting hydrological processes in fluvial systems. Higher discharges are responsible for higher erosion, greater transport, and also higher deposition. Consequently, sediment accumulation in Amazonia floodplain river-connected lakes can be directly related to hydrological patterns of the Amazon river mainstream. In this context, we analyzed five sediment cores taken in two floodplain systems situated in the lower Amazon river, to investigate sediment accumulation patterns during the Holocene. Our records show abrupt fluctuations in sedimentation rates in lakes that can reach more than 2 cm/yr during some periods. We find that in all cores, sediment stratigraphy is characterized by packages of sediments of uniform age, which are typically 10-80 cm thick and present a variegated color. The 14C age of the upper package is about 2700 cal yr BP. During this abrupt event, sediment accumulation rates in floodplain lakes can be at least 200 times higher than those of "normal" periods. This sedimentation event is interpreted as being the consequence of one or several successive extreme floods. The 2700 cal yr BP event has been also observed in other sites in South America and other regions in the world, although different impacts can be observed in each system. This event probably corresponds to a conjunction of favorable conditions for extreme Amazon discharge associated with the Middle to Late Holocene increase of austral summer insolation shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from northern to southern positions. In this context, a marked negative peak in solar irradiance at 2700 cal yrs BP seems to have provoked cooling on the continents and a southward shift of the ITCZ associated with a probable reduction in Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation.

P-1119-13

Critical erosion rates in mountain catchments during catastrophic events El Niño: from the west central Andes to the Pacific Ocean (Peru)

SB. Morera Julca (1) ; A. Crave, (2) ; JL. Guyot (3) ; A. Desiderio, (4) ; O. Grover, (5) ; S. Vilcabaña, (6) ; C. Gálvez, (7) ; T. Condom (8)

(1) Institute Geophysical of Peru, Climate, Ima, Peru; (2) Geosciences Rennes, Osur, cnrs, Rennes, France; (3) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Hydrology research, Lima, Peru; (4) Proyecto especial binacional Puyango-Tumbes, Hydrology, Tumbes, Peru; (5) Proyecto especial Chira-Piura, Hydrology, Piura, Peru; (6) Proyecto especial Zana-Jequetepeque, Hydrology, Cajamarca, Peru; (7) Proyecto especial Chavimochic, Hydrology, Trujillo, Peru; (8) IRD, Lthe, Grenoble, France

Erosion rates and sediment flux from the Andes to the coast of Peru, is largely unknown. The aims of this study is to bridging the knowledge gap by quantifying and understanding the magnitude and signal frequency of sediment fluxes from the west central Andes mountains to the Pacific coast: a new extensive suspended sediment yield (SSY) database from short to long-term erosion was collected (1948-2012). Measurements were taken at piedmont stations of twenty sub-catchments (638-16949 km2) located between 2'S to 18'S. Statistical analysis of suspended sediment fluxes (SSF) SSF time series at daily and sub-daily frequency revealed that, Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) response immediately to runoff during water discharge peaks. However, annual

correlation coefficient (R) between runoff and SSF along the Peruvian coast show a wide range from 0 to 0.9 (p < 0.05). Results also show strong latitudinal and longitudinal runoff gradient ranges from 2.4 to 25.5 1.km-2-year-1 and a wide SSY ranges from 9 to 2 000 t.km-2-year-1. SSY in Peru increased dramatically during extreme events El Niño (1982-83 and 1997-98) from 10 to 60 times in comparison with historical mean SSY. Finally, extreme events El Niño control SSY in the north of Peru (from 2'S to 2'S). Meanwhile, factors which control SSY during normal years are not fully understood, further studies on this topic are conducted.

P-1119-14

Modeling of maximal spring flood runoff
on rivers in Ukraine with using CCSM3 and
HADCM3 for the medium (2030-2050) and
long term (2070 and beyond)

V. Ovcharuk (1)

(1) Odessa State Environmental University,
Hydrometeorological Institute, Odessa, Ukraine

Currently very relevant is the issue of changing the water cycle under the influence of global climate change. The main area of research is the study of the water balance components in general, such as surface runoff of rivers, underground flow, evaporation, etc. However, as the events of recent years, the quantity and quality of extreme events, such as catastrophic floods also significantly associated with climate change. Thus, the study of quantitative characteristics of maximum river flow rare probability of exceedance as well as their forecast for the near future (2030-2050) and long term (2070 and beyond) is an important scientific problem of modern science. The authors of this study are propose a variant of calculation formula of maximum river flow, that allows, on the one hand to count the maximum water flow rare exceedance probability (P=1,3,5,10%), and on the other hand – to predict possible changes in the values obtained using the data different models. In order to obtain predictive values of temperature and rainfall in the plains of Ukraine in the study were using simulation results of two different global climate models- HadCM3 (Meteorological Service UK MetOffice), and climate models (CCSM3) from National Center for atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA). The next task was to study the relationship between the predicted values (eg, annual precipitation) and calculated values – maximum snow supplies and precipitation during the flood. For the precipitation inventory 1003 water stations (for maximum snow supplies) and 315 weather stations (for the precipitation) were obtained relevant dependencies that have high correlation coefficients, indicating the possibility of direct incorporation of climate change on flood runoff. The simulation results are presented in the form of the coefficients of runoff change.

The value of the coefficient of runoff changes taken equal to 1.0 for current situation, respectively, the value of this ratio is greater than 1.0 indicate a possible increase in runoff, and less than 1.0 – the decrease. Comparing the results for different scenarios for the model CCSM3, we can mention that for the period 2009-2033 scenarios (A1B, B1, A2) give more or less similar results – no significant decrease in runoff spring flood in northern areas, and significant – in the southern. Conversely scenario COMMIT provides for increased discharges spring flood on rivers in zone of sufficient moisture (basins of Western Bug, Pripyat, Desna, Dnieper) by 10-20%, and on the rivers in the zone insufficient moisture (basins of Southern Bug and Seversky Donets) – reduction to 20%. As for Azov region rivers, for them, as well as in other scenarios expected to reduce runoff spring flood more than 50%. Analyzing the forecasting period from 2069 to 2099, it should be noted that the results differ significantly for different scenarios. So scenarios A1B and A2 on 2099 are predicting practical disappearance spring flood (water content of the water in the rivers is 100%) and the water is insufficient moisture, and to areas of sufficient moisture – reducing runoff by more than 50%. Slightly different results provide scenarios B1 and COMMIT. The scenario B1 for the period until 2069 predict is a gradual decrease in water resources of spring flood (from 20% to 50%), excepting to rivers Azov region, and on the period up to 2099 – a slight increase in the relative to 2069 for the rivers in area of sufficient moisture and stabilization – for rivers in the Azov region. Azov region are predicting maximum loss of runoff in the spring – up about 80%. The scenario COMMIT, which implies that the
concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will be maintained at 2000 levels, predicted gradual increase in water content of rivers in northern regions from 10 to 20%, and a slight decline – for the rivers of the southern regions (10 to 20%). For rivers Azov region spring flood runoff will decrease by 50% to 2099. As already noted, the calculations of «climate amendments» were held in two models – CCSM3 and HADCM3. Simulation results for HADCM3 very different from model of CCSM3. Almost in all scenarios are projected sharp increase in water content (2.5–3 times) for the period until 2039, and then the same sharp decrease (especially for scenarios A2 and A1B) water content spring flood. The scenario B1 is predicted stabilization of water resources, ie, till 2099 coefficient of change of almost all rivers except the Azov region, is 1.0. As for the script COMMIT, there is projected to increase runoff of spring flood from 1.75 to 3.5 times by 2069.

P-1119-15

Extreme Hydrological Events, Vulnerability and Coping Mechanism for Sustainable Livelihood in Alaknanda River, Basin, Uttarakhand

BW. Pandey (1)

(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Extreme events are sudden calamities, which involve loss of life, property and livelihood. This paper presents a methodological approach for the integration of extreme events, climatic vulnerability, land use scenario modeling and flood risk assessment. Alaknanda river basin is located in the eastern part of the Garhwal Himalaya and represents one of the most acutely hazard-prone regions in the country. The important factor causing flood and also accelerate several hydrological hazards during monsoon periods in Alaknanda river are heavy rainfall, cloud burst, GLOF, landslides, Slope failure, earthquakes, deforestation, poor drainage due to urbanisation. These hydrological hazards are mainly responsible for several socioeconomic consequences (cultivated land degradation, infrastructure loss, human casualties, loss of transmission lines, and so on) in the Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand. Primary data from each hotspot has been collected through a questionnaire survey and a Participatory Research Approach (PRA) procedure that is based on the LIFE approach. The LIFE Approach is based on Livelihood options, Institutional participation in adaptation policy design, Implementation, Food security and Empowerment parameters like health and education. These parameters are important in building resilience capacity and ensuring sustainable development pathways. The methodology will be consists of a number of steps with primary and secondary data analysis. This paper also provides various mitigation processes for the challenges faced and formulate sustainable development strategy for the development in the Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand.

P-1119-16

Hydrological extremes, food security and agriculture in western Amazon

J. Ronchail (1); T. Schor (2); M. Sabot (3); JC. Espinoza (4); N. Filizola (5); G. Drapeau (6); JL. Guyot (7); JM. Martinez (8)

(1) LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (2) Université Federal de Amazonas, Nepecab, Manaus, Brazil; (3) Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; (4) Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru; (5) Universidade Federal de Amazonas, Lapa, Manaus, Brazil; (6) LOCEAN, Université Paris Diderot et PRODIG, Paris, France; (7) IRD, Lima, Peru; (8) IRD, GET Laboratory, Toulouse, France

The water level of the Amazon and of its tributaries varies significantly from one season to another. For instance, at Iquitos station (Peru), the water level varies from 18 meters in May–June to 8 meters in September–October. That is why, during the low-flow period, cultivating becomes possible and is important on the riverbanks and in the inundation plains.

Agricultural production in a family-based system on the riverbanks and inundation plains is very important in terms of guarantee of supply for food security. In order

to understand the important relation between agriculture, food security and hydrological system some characteristics of the local agriculture in the Amazonian region located between Iquitos (Peru) and the triple frontier between Brazil, Peru and Colombia are first presented using results from field observations, survey and data from the Peruvian and Brazilian Agricultural agencies.

Then, information about the interannual variability (1980–2014) of the hydrological cycle of the Solimões River are presented: discussion and definition of the dates of the beginning and of the end of the low-flow period, duration of the low flow period, velocity of the water level changes during the increasing and decreasing flow periods, presence of "false alarm" at the beginning or at the end of the dry and the wet period, ... This part is developed using water level data from the national hydrological services of Peru and Brazil and from the Environmental Research Observatory SO-HYBAM (Geodynamical, hydrological and biogeochemical control of erosion/alteration and material transport in the Amazon basin).

Finally, as a shorter than usual length of the low flow season, a rapid increase of the water level, a "false" beginning of the low water season, etc. are hazards that may put at risk sowing and plant development, hydrological parameters are related to yield values seeking possible correlations between extreme events and food security in the region.

P-1119-17

A mineralogical and organic geochemi-
cal overview of the effects of Holocene
changes in Amazon River flow on three
floodplain lakes

L. Silva Moreira (1) ; P. Moreira-Turcq (2) ; B. Turcq (3) ; RC. Cordeiro (4) ; S. Caqueneiro (5)

(1) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geologia, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (2) Instituto de Recherche pour le Développement, GET, Lima, Peru; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Lima, Peru; (4) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geologia, Niterói, Brazil; (5) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Bondy, France

A synthesis of the impacts of the Amazon River
hydrological changes on the sedimentation process of
organic matter (OM) in three different floodplain lakes
(Santa Nina, Maraca, and Comprido lakes) is presented
in this study. Today the Santa Nina and Maraca lakes are
directly and permanently connected with the main channel
of the Amazon River, in contrast to Comprido Lake, which
is indirectly and periodically influenced by the Amazon
River due to its greater distance from the main channel. All
three lake sediment records showed a reduced river inflow
due to dry climatic conditions during the early and middle
Holocene followed by an increased fluvial input during the
wetter late Holocene. In Santa Nina and Maraca Lakes,
the reduced river inflow period was recorded by sediments
with a low abundance of smectite (on average ~20 wt.%),
a clay mineral mainly transported by the fluvial system,
and high total organic carbon (TOC) contents (on average
~8.2 wt.%). During the late Holocene, a higher smectite
abundance (on average ~43 wt.%) and a lower TOC content
( on average ~1.4 wt.%) pointed to greater dilution by
riverine lithogenic matter. This change was accompanied
by the increase in aquatic primary productivity, as shown
by the increased δ13C values and by a C/N typical of algae,
suggesting a higher lake water level. In Comprido Lake, a
sedimentation gap occurred during the early and middle
Holocene. The wetter late Holocene, from 3000 cal years
BP onwards, a gradual increase of the TOC, chlorophyll
derivatives and Aulacosea sp. suggest an increase in the
productivity and in water level level due to the high water
flood of the Amazon River and the entrapment area as well.
Consequently, our study shows that the sedimentation
processes of organic matter in Amazonian floodplain lakes
were strongly influenced by variations in the hydrodynamic
regime of the Amazon River during the Holocene. However,
the impacts of the variations on the three floodplain lakes
were different depending on the distance of each lake from
the main channel of the Amazon River.
## Run-off events registered in East Pacific equatorial region during the late Holocene: analysis of possible causes through IPSL model transient simulation

B. Turcq (1); O. Marti, (2); P. Braconnot (2); M. Saint-Lu, (2) ; J. Leloup, (3); D. Gutierrez Aguilar (4)

(1) Instituto de Recherche pour le Développement, Loceán- ipsl/upch, Lima, Peru; (2) LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) LOCEAN - IPSL, Paris, France; (4) Instituto del Mar del Perú, IMARPE, Dirección General de Investigaciones en Oceanografía y Cambio Climático, Callao, Peru

An increase of clastic sediment inputs has been observed between 5 and 4 kys BP in lakes of the equatorial region of South America, in Ecuador and Galapagos islands as well as in marine sediments off Northern Peru. These changes in sedimentation have been interpreted as a strengthening of El Niño due to insolation change. Conversely, data from central and west-Pacific corals do not indicate a clear trend of ENSO change during the Holocene but strong centennial to millennial oscillations.

To help interpreting the climate change in this region we analyzed a transient simulation of IPSL CMSA LR global climate model from 6 to 3kyrs. The simulation indicates an increase of heavy rainfall events (monthly rainfall intensity) in the East Pacific (90-80W, 0-6'S) since 5kyrs. Most of these events are linked to occurrences of El Niño events and the summer precipitations show a multi-decadal variability related with the variability of SST anomalies in El Niño 3-4 region.

However the model did not show important change in SST anomalies in ENSO 3.4 or ENSO 1+2 regions during this period although there is a 0.2°C increase of SST between 6 and 5kyrs. The comparison between 6 and 4 kys precipitation maps show that the main difference is a northern shift of ITCZ position during South Hemisphere summer that provokes more intense rainfall in the study region. This northern shift is also observed on the Atlantic Ocean in agreement with paleoclimate data from lakes and speleothems in Northeast Brazil. In conclusion the IPSL transient simulation suggest that the impact of El Niño events in term of precipitations in the East Pacific can have been modulated by shift of the ITCZ during the Holocene.

This study is supported by ANR El Paso n° 2010 BLANC 608 01 and by the french national programme LEFE/INSU.

## Changes in extreme hydrological events in highly regulated river basins of Catalonia (NE Spain): discerning between climate change processes, land cover modifications and water resources management

# 1121 - Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact Assessment

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1121-01

#### Air Pollution, Climate Change and Human Health

P. Kinney (1)

(1) Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Climate and Health Program, New York, NY, United States of America

Air quality is a major modifiable health burden around the world, especially in rapidly developing cities. Exposure to air pollution, including fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone, has adverse effects on human health throughout the lifespan. Adverse effects of air pollution include the development of chronic diseases such as lung cancer,

SM. Vicente-Serrano (1); J. Zabalza-Martinez, (1); J. López-Moreno, (1); G. Borrás, (2); E. Pla, (3); D. Pascual, (3); N. Martin-Hernández, (1); C. Azorin-Molina, (1); A. Sanchez-Lorenzo (1); E. Morán-Tejeda, (1); R. Serrano, (3)

(1) Instituto Pirenaco de Ecología, Zaragoza, Spain; (2) Oficina Catalana de Canvi Climàtic, Barcelona, Spain; (3) CREAF, Barcelona, Spain

Extreme precipitation events trigger floods with devastating effects, causing several economic and environmental impacts, and even human causalities. To understand how extreme precipitation events propagate spatially to the river response is a high priority in the Mediterranean region, where heavy precipitation events are frequent, but they tend to occur randomly in space and time and our predictive capacity of these events is usually low. In recent decades, climate change processes have been identified in the Mediterranean region, affecting the magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Nevertheless, the evolution of extreme hydrological events may be different to that observed by precipitation extremes in past decades, given strong land cover changes and/or river regulation, water management practices and water uses.

To know the effect of the management of hydrological basins on the evolution of extreme hydrological events may help to adapt the society response to future climate change scenarios. In this study we analyze the evolution of extreme precipitation and hydrological events in the past five decades in three basins of Catalonia (NE Spain): Muga, Ter and Segre. These basins have their headwaters in the Catalan Pyrenees and they have been highly regulated by numerous dams in the second half of the twentieth century. Nevertheless, they are characterized by different water uses, land covers and management strategies and they include one of the main irrigated areas of Spain (the de Llobregat basin), the Metropolitan Barcelona area in which there is large urban water demand (more than 4.5M people), and also high pressure tourism areas in the Mediterranean coastland.

Analyses have shown how the progressive increase of the natural vegetation coverage and mainly the increased river regulation enhance the mismatch between the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation and streamflow events. Nevertheless, extreme high flow episodes have also been recorded in the three basins in the last decades, reinforcing the hypothesis that although damming and water management may control hydrological extreme events to some extent, the high flow risk will probably remain or even reinforce under climate change scenarios.

This study has been developed in the frame of the project: «LIFE12 ENV/ES/000536 Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (MEDACC)» financed by the LIFE Programme of the European Commission and focused on establishing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the three analyzed basins.

chronic heart and lung diseases, as well as adverse effects on the reproductive system and on neuro-development. Action to mitigate air pollution brings immediate and lasting benefits for the health and well-being of the population. In addition, well-designed air pollution mitigation actions have the potential to reduce societal impacts on the climate system. In order to inform global, regional and urban scale air pollution and climate planning, there is a need for multi-scale health impact assessments that estimate the potential health impacts and/or benefits that may result from coordinated mitigation strategies. We describe several recent and/or ongoing efforts of this kind. For example, the recently-completed AC-HIA project estimated the influence that policies aimed at reducing air pollution emissions could have on global, regional and urban public health in 2030 and 2050, compared to 2010, taking into account the influence of climate change and alternative air pollution mitigation scenarios. Assessments were carried out across three different geographic scales with increasing spatial
granularity, for the entire world, for Europe, and for the Paris metropolitan region. Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: a business as usual scenario based on national regulations already on the books, and a maximum feasible reduction scenarios based on available technologies for air pollution control. The results showed the potential for substantial increases in global deaths due to PM2.5 and ozone under the business as usual scenarios, especially in south and east Asia. On the other hand, substantial health benefits could be achieved under the maximum feasible reduction scenario. In general, health assessments carried out at finer spatial scales yielded greater health benefit estimates. This and other studies are pointing the way to a new generation of tools for integrated air quality and climate planning.

Enormous health benefits can be achieved by well-chosen climate mitigation strategies that simultaneously reduce air pollution concentrations in the local and regional environments in which the emission reductions occur. However, to evaluate those benefits in relation to specific mitigation options, careful analyses are needed at appropriate spatial scales to link the air pollution reductions to locations of vulnerable populations. Through such analyses, alternative mitigation strategies can be compared and prioritized based on their potential health benefits, providing critical input to decision makers.

## O-1121-01

### Public health response to climate change in twenty-two European countries

B. Menne (1); V. Kendrovski, (2); T. Wolf (3); S. Gerardo (2) (1); J. Creswick (3)

(1) WHO, Program manager, climate change and sustainable development, WHO, ECEH, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, Bonn, Germany; (3) WHO, Cgs, Bonn, Germany

Introduction: WHO European Member States (53 countries) agreed on implementing the European Framework for action on climate change and health. One of the mandate is the assessment of health implications of climate change and the development of national health adaptation plans, as a contribution to WHO and UNFCCC developments.

Scope: To assess the scale and content of the national adaptation plans and the assessments, to identify incremental, transitional and transformational approaches and to guide future political and scientific developments

Result: Between 2000 and 2014, twenty-two WHO European Member States, developed national adaptation plans with a health component; while 32 European Member States assessed the health implications of climate change. Most of the WHO European Region Member States have mainly focused on strengthening their health systems through a range of specific measures. All measures identified mainly serve to address current health problems. Measures include: strengthened infectious disease surveillance; strengthened environmental health services, such as water, sanitation and vaccination; and syngeneous with the International Health Regulations. Fewer countries have been using new technologise and approaches, such as strengthened early-warning and disaster responses and integrated mapping. None has been using transferrational approaches versus a 4 degree world, and large scale prevention of associated risks. Countries highlighted the need for health benefitting mitigation measures for adaptation; these include local community action, improving air quality, greening health services and renewable energy technologise. Examples from MS will be illustrated

Discussion: Synergistic interventions on both adaptation and mitigation, can in particular be useful for health and well-being. The post 2015 development agenda will play an increasing important role. It will be important to provide an understanding of the wider dimension to health and environment decision makers.

## O-1121-02

### The impact of climate policies on European air quality in the 21st century

A. Colette (1); S. Schucht, (1); B. Bessagnet, (1); M. Holland, (2); Z. Klimont, (3); L. Menut, (4); S. Rao, (3); S. Szopa, (5); R. Vautard (6); J.M. Brignon, (1); L. Rouil, (1)

(1) INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halate, France; (2) EMRC, London, United Kingdom; (3) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) IPSL, Palaiseau, France; (5) IPSL, Saclay, France; (6) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Climate change, long range transport of pollutants and surface air quality share multiple interaction pathways. Tailoring efficient air quality mitigation strategies over the long term requires taking into account such external factors whose variability can be neglected for short-term projections. We designed, developed and implemented a new regional air quality and climate modelling system to account for the possible penalties of climate change and long range transport of pollutants on European air quality. In order to ensure its relevance for environmental policy making, this modelling system is embedded in a quantitative cost-benefit analysis framework.

The regional air quality and climate modelling suite allowed proposing an assessment of European air quality in 2050. We highlighted the dominating influence of mitigation of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants in Europe. But the penalty brought about by climate change on ozone pollution was also confirmed, and the large impact of long range transport at the 2050 horizon was emphasized. For particulate matter, long range transport is less important; the impact of climate change is significant but also uncertain.

Thanks to the use of air pollutant emission projections based on emission factors reflecting the current legislation, we could assess the costs of climate mitigation and air quality legislation. We point out the economic benefit of climate policies for air quality legislation due to a low carbon economy requiring less end-of-pipe technological measures against air pollution. The total cost of mitigation (air and climate) remains however higher under the mitigation than under the business as usual pathway.

The analysis of air and climate modelling results within a monetised health impact assessment framework allowed assessing expected sanitary benefits. It is important to highlight that the expected monetised sanitary benefits compensates the costs of climate mitigation, showing an air quality can be considered as a positive externality of low carbon policies.

## O-1121-03

### Global and European scale health impact assessment (HIA) of PM2.5 over the 21st century

V. Likhvar (1)

(1) CNRS, Paris, France

Multi-scale approach to health impact assessment (HIA) can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies. Although this approach provides results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales, it has several limitations, such as the choice of concentration-response function (CRF). The recently developed integrated exposure-response (IER) model (Burnett, et al. 2014) combines global relative risk information from different combustion types of PM emissions, and can describe exposure-response relationships between PM2.5 and leading global causes of death, such as ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC). Using this model and ECLIPSE air pollution scenarios (current legislation (CLE) and maximum feasible (MFR)), we estimated future impact of PM2.5 on health at global and European scales in 2030 and 2050. Our preliminary results showed that 1/3 of total global burden of ambient air pollution on IHD deaths is associated with PM2.5 (488 000 deaths/year). If maximum reduction measures are implemented by 2030, this should be reduced globally by 17%; on the other hand, with the current legislation scenario the number of IHD deaths should continue to increase, and by 2030 will reach 586 000 deaths annually. However, these results may be greatly underestimated as the PM concentration levels produced by the global model were much lower compared to the regional scale estimates.
O-1121-04

## Evaluating air quality impact on mortality and crop yields in South Asia

S. Ghude (1); C. Jena (1); D. Chate (1); G. Beig (1)

(1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Climate change has been shown to increase surface O3 in many regions of the world and have raised concerns about the O3 impact on mortality and the magnitude of yield reductions, primarily occurring in the developing nations.

Demographically agriculture is the broadest economic sector, rank worldwide second in farm output and principle source of livelihood for more than 58% of 1.2 billion population which plays an important role in the overall socio-economic fabric of India. We have quantified, for the first time, a district-wise impact of surface ozone on cotton, soybeans, and rice and wheat crops for all of India. On a national scale, we estimate fractional relative yield loss for wheat of about 5.0 (±1.2), 2.1 (±0.9) % for rice, 5.3 (±3.1) % for cotton and 2.7 (±1.9) % for Soyabean, with the losses concentrated in central and the Indo-gangetic plains of north India. In terms of absolute production losses by weight, wheat is the most impacted crop, with losses of 3.5±0.8 Mt followed by rice (2.1±0.8 Mt) sufficient to feed 94 million people living below poverty line in India. Translating crop production losses into national economic damage, we estimate an economic loss of 1.29 ±0.47 billion USD. Sensitivity studies with the integrated model study reveals NOx as the key pollutant causing as much as 93% of the crop loss.

Significant portion of human population in India is believed to be regularly exposed to higher surface ozone (O3) levels. Here, we have also evaluate total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities and hospitalizations (COPD) caused by population exposure to surface O3. Attributable mortalities are quantified using health impact function of long-term relative risk estimates (population attributable-risk proportion) for O3 from epidemiology literature. We calculated total mortality of about 1125 thousands, 404 thousands by cardiovascular decreases and 176 thousands by respiratory decreases, and COPD cases of about 175 thousands caused by O3 exposure to population of India in 2005. The highest number of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities and COPD cases are found in the highly populated Indo-Gangetic region followed by municipalities and sub-urban and industrial areas.

O-1121-05

## Impacts of Climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

L. Hamaoui-Laguel (1); R. Vautard (2); L. Liu (3); F. Solmon (3); N. Viovy (2); D. Khvorostyanov (4); F. Essl (5); I. Chune (6); A. Colette (1); J. Storkey (7); MA. Epstein (8)

(1) Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (3) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; (4) Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Palaiseau, France; (5) University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; (6) Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, Montpellier, France; (7) Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom; (8) Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive weed native to North America producing very allergenic pollen which causes serious health effects like rhinitis, sinusitis, and hay fever. It is also introduced in Europe since the mid-19th century and invaded large areas during the last few decades (Pannonian plain, Northern Italy and South-Eastern France). Furthermore, there is a high potential for ragweed spread in current suitable habitats and future changes in Climate and land use may increase the spread by altering the climatic niche determined by physiological thresholds or affecting cropping patterns. The rate of spread depends also on seed dispersal due to natural or anthropogenic processes and the efficiency of ragweed eradication policies. However, airborne ragweed pollen concentrations depend not only on plant infestation, but also on phenology, pollen production, release, dispersion and atmospheric transport.

Here, we present the first integrated modelling framework,

based on an explicit representation of plant phenology, pollen production, and release to the atmosphere, to assess future changes in airborne pollen concentration under scenarios of climate and land use changes and seed dispersal. Two model suites are implemented differing in the atmospheric processing and in the driving climate models. The CHIMERE suite uses the Chemistry-Transport Model CHIMERE model, forced by regional climate simulations from the WRF model downscaling of the IAP-MSU-MR/MR model. The RegCM4 suite uses the RegCM4 regional climate model forced by global climate simulations from HadGEM CMIP5.

We performed three types of simulations (50 km grid covering Europe), which are hind-cast (2000-2012), historical (1986-2005) and future (2041-2060) simulations. The hindcast simulations, forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, are performed, and evaluated the modelling chain. The historical simulations are carried out using calibrated ragweed density to serve as a reference simulation for the future. We considered two contrasting RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios including a high-end (RCP 8.5) and moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios and three seed dispersal scenarios (reference, slow and rapid).

We show that airborne pollen concentrations may drastically increase in 2050 by a factor of 4.5 under high-end (RCP 8.5) and 4.0 under moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios. This upsurge is largely dependent on the seed dispersal rate, making this increase vary in a range of factors from 2 to 12 according to the range of formulated assumptions. We estimate that about one third of the projected increases of pollen concentration are due to the ongoing seed dispersal within the present niche regardless of climate change. Climate change will be responsible of two thirds of the future pollen loads increase. It will extend the habitat suitability for ragweed in Northern and Eastern Europe and result in higher pollen concentrations in established ragweed areas mostly due to a larger primary production with increasing CO2. Therefore, future increase of airborne pollen concentrations will be caused by the combined effects of climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas.

Our results indicate that controlling the current European ragweed invasion will become more difficult in the future as the environment will be more favourable for ragweed growth and spread, highlighting the need for the development of effective and regionally co-ordinated eradication programmes.

## 1121-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1121-01

## The Air Quality Improvement by Precipitation during the Spring Season

SH. Ahn (1); SW. Lee (1); JY. Kim (1); CH. Park (1)

(1) National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Research Planning and Management Division, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea

Meteorological elements determining air quality are significant, given that many premature deaths each year are attributed to air pollution. The washout effect of summertime precipitation on air pollutants is of importance, since every spring yellow dust and high level of particulate matter (PM) in the Korean Peninsula has reduced visibility and threatened the health of the people. The air pollutant is a substance in solid, liquid, or gaseous form in the air, which is caused by natural and human activities. Air pollution is a serious problem that threatens the health of the people, inflicts harm to plants or structures and causes toxic effects to the environment. These air pollutants are removed from the air by wet deposition process referring to precipitation, fog, and condensation. This study has analyzed air quality improvement with the concentration variation of four pollutants (PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2) during the spring season in the Korean Peninsula. During the period 2009 to 2013, we selected 56 cases that were accompanied by nationwide precipitation, and used the observation data on automatic air pollution from the Ministry of Environment (MOE) and the precipitation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). We calculated the difference of air pollutant concentration during the
period with no precipitation and with precipitation. The concentration (PM10, NO₂, CO, and SO₂) during the precipitation period was lower (29.8%, 9.8%, 3.4%, and 21.5%, respectively) compared to that of during the no precipitation period. Furthermore, the air quality has greatly improved as the duration of precipitation increased. The result seems to imply that spring precipitation has a significant influence on the removal of the PM10, which penetrates the lung and threatens the health.

Acknowledgements:

This research was carried out as a part of «Development and application of technology for weather forecast» supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

## P-1121-02

### Aeolian flux quantification of the waste mining deposit: field measurement and empirical modelling. Case of the Hammam Zriba landforms (Zaghouan, Tunisia)

O. Amrouni (1) ; T. Ben Moussa (2) ; S. Abdeljaouad (3)
(1) National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Laboratory of Marine Environment, Carthage, Tunisia; (2) Faculté des Sciences de Tunis, Géologie, Ezzahra, Tunisia; (3) University of El Manar, Faculty of Sciences, Department of geology, Tunis, Tunisia

The aim of this study is the quantification of the air flux mining waste pollution throughout the human landforms. The study field, located on the lee side of Jebal Boukhoum mountain (Hmam Zriba Locality, Zaghouan), is mainly exposed to the frequent dust storm event which entrains the dispersion of the dams deposit. Using the vertical sand trap (type Rosen, 1978) along three cross profiles (from the dam to the olive tree field) under a dust storm event of May 12, 2013 (direction: west to west north west, speed ≥ 15 m/s) we quantify the aeolian waste mining flux. Vertical distribution of sand transport flux was studied with the 39 sand samples. Results show that the volume of the aeolian flux indicates variation. In fact, the topography of the area and the nature of the sediments, land use and climatic conditions (wind speed, humidity, etc.) are limiting factors in the transport and dispersion of mining waste particle. Considering these parameters, the measured wind flow can reach 6.4 kg/min at the dust level, accumulated on the olive tree obstacle. However at the dust level, measured flux do not exceed 1.4 kg /m/min. The steep slope of the dune lee side causes an acceleration of the flow. Wind fluxes measured at the blowouts and the corridors are between 0.2 and 0.6 kg/min. It corresponds to turbulent areas where wind velocity becomes higher than 9 m/s. The values of moisture percentages vary between 2.5 and 3.5 for all our samples. Threshold friction velocities (u* t) are between 0.22 and 0.311 ms⁻¹. Making corrections to the values of measured flow and moisture such as the sediments of sediments, u* t reached 0.606 ms⁻¹, the Dr correlation index (calculated flux/empirical flux index) becomes much lower. This confirms the close relationship between the threshold friction velocity and wind flow. Although the semi-empirical formulas established by Bagnold (1941) and Zingg (1953) do not involve this parameter, the correction of the measured flux reduced the difference. Of the frequently used models, that describes vertical distribution of sand flux, Zingg's model produced the best values with the modified measured waste mining flux.

## P-1121-03

### PM carbonaceous fraction in relationship both to the atmospheric budget and the new technologies

P. Avino (1) ; G. Quartieri (2) ; P. Quercia (3) ; CB. Eric (4)
(1) INAIL, DIT. Rome, Italy; (2) IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy; (3) IBR University, Rome, Italy; (4) OIKOS, Rome, Italy

As part of the energy decisions that are being considered, the extent of the budget of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) assumes a primary importance, in particular, it is essential to measure the relative fractions for a correct evaluation of air pollution from combustion processes. The use of these measures is used to define

a specific index of pollution from motor vehicle traffic. Infatti, these measures become very relevant for the protection of the health of the population for the high permanence of carbon particles in the atmosphere and the many chemical and physical processes of transformation that they may undergo in the atmosphere.

The good correlation between the values of OC and EC shows that the area of the historic center of Rome the most important source of particulate carbonaceous fraction is in the motor vehicle traffic, ie an element typically anthropic, as indeed in the industrial area source is the combustion. Instead different situation is found in a remote area, where this correlation is reversed from the point of view of quality and is. decisively lower by quantitatively indicating the presence of natural sources.

The separation between EC, of primary origin, and OC, the source primary and secondary, is of fundamental importance for the study of the effects pneumoconiotiogen and, more generally, for the toxic effects and for the study of the mechanisms of formation of photochemical pollutants. It follows that, on a microscale, the carbon becomes more important negative for human health than other natural environmental factors.

You can make a first distinction between risk and risk widespread local anthropogenic natural; However, the local risk tends to increase rapidly as evidenced by all the curves and the time series presented recently by several authors.

The anthropogenic component becomes more important and fundamental as to require choices and impose serious and important related to the lifestyle of the population.

Finally, in this horizon quite accurate plus future situations by having to still monitor: the conversion of coal, for example, of new industries are not yet known, especially how it affects the territory locale.in any case, new energy technologies, definitely interesting for the greater energy yield, should be evaluated from the point of view of environmental compatibility.

## P-1121-04

### Evaluation of the Spatial Relationship between Air Pollution and Respiratory Infections in Meknes City, Morocco

I. Boularab (1) ; O. Mouhaddach (1) ; MP. Kestemont (2) ; El Jaafari (1)

(1) Mouhaddach University, Meknes, Morocco; (2) Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Background: With 3.7 million premature deaths in 2012, the World Health Organization indicates that air pollution is a major environmental risk. In Morocco, 41% of the morbidity associated to respiratory infections due to air pollution. Despite this health risk clearly linked to air pollution, there are few studies conducted in the relation air pollution- health in Meknes, the capital of the Meknes-Tafaltel region.

The analyses of geographical distribution of respiratory infections in Meknes city, as well as the study of its relation to potential environmental risk factors, have an important role to develop an efficient system for the monitoring and prevention of this type of diseases.

Methods & Results: The present study aims to elucidate the relationship between air pollution in the Meknes city and the spatial distribution of respiratory consultations as health indicator. First, we present an overview of the mobile and stationary sources of air pollution in the city, with measurements of key pollutants. What helped to reveal that Meknes city suffers from air pollution by diverse sources and characterized by spatial and seasonal variability.

Next, we analyze the epidemiological situation of the health indicator, depending on the age and time, and the spatial distribution of their accumulated incidence compared to sources positions. It follows that an increase in the number of new consultations is disclose specially in the Autumn-Winter period and between persons less than 15 years. This variability also observed in space distribution, with a net increase in neighborhoods in the vicinity of sources of air pollution, particularly those situated in the wind direction promoting the flow of pollutants.
Conclusion & Perspectives: Revealing the impact on the health of urban dwellers in the city of Meknes quite heavy, the identification of air pollution's risky areas and age categories is a milestone in the establishment of a support system for decision-making of air quality monitoring, for local authorities of Meknes city.

P-1121-05

Climate and risk of vector borne zoonotic disease emergence: examples of Rift Valley and West Nile fevers

V. Chevalier (1) ; A. Tran (2)

(1) CIRAD, Montpellier, France; (2) CIRAD, Es, Montpellier, France

Vector borne diseases have a major impact on human and animal health, but also on society economy. Due to their transmission routes, zoonotic or not, these diseases are very sensitive to climatic changes. Actors, conditions and processes requested for disease transmission are part of a complex and dynamic system whose behavior, influenced by climate but also by other environmental and socio-economic components, drive potential for pathogen transmission and outbreak occurrence. We illustrate this complexity through two examples, ie Rift Valley and West Nile fevers.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. Transmitted by mosquitoes and direct contact, RVF affects both livestock and humans. Due to global changes, RVF also threats Northern Africa and Southern Europe (Chevalier, Pépin et al. 2010). Depending on areas, the influence of climate may differ, ranging from determining to insignificant.

In Kenyan regions characterized by large depression areas called « Dambos » and a succession of dry and rainy seasons, RVF outbreaks occur every 5-10 years: a strong correlation was shown between outbreak occurrence and heavy rainfall events that favor both massive hatch and development of Aedes mcmintoshi and Culex sp mosquitoes that are the main vectors of RVF in that region. Similarly, the Ferlo area located in Northern Senegal is characterized by a Sahelian climate and temporary ponds (small water bodies that are filled during the rainy season and then dry). But in this region, no correlation between outbreaks and extreme rainfall events has ever been demonstrated. However Soti et al (2012) showed that these outbreaks occurred when the abundance of the two main mosquito vectors in this region, namely, Culex pipiliciles and Aedes vexans arabiensis, was higher than average; these abundances are directly linked to specific rainfall rhythms now well described (Soti, Tran et al. 2012). Nevertheless, herd management, herd renewal rates and nomadic herd movements that influence the immunologic coverage of herds, are probably also involved. These variables will have to be incorporated in existing models to refine them and allow for an accurate surveillance and prediction of outbreaks. In other countries that recently experienced RVF outbreaks, such as Madagascar or South Africa, heavy climatic perturbation could not be incriminated in RVF emergence (Anyamba, Linthinic et al. 2010) in Egypt and Yemen, the role of socio-economic factors, along with climatic factors, was found to be determinant in RVF emergence and outbreak severity (Abdo-Salem, Tran et al. 2011; Xiao, Beier et al. 2015).

Also transmitted by mosquitoes, mostly from Culex genus, West Nile fever (WNF) is caused by a Flavivirus. Reservoir hosts are wild birds, mostly passeringes. Human and horses are dead-end hosts. Introduced in New-World in 1999, the virus spread throughout the USA in few years. It is now endemic and transmitted till South of Argentina. Between 1999 and 2010, nearly 1.8 million people were infected; more than 12 000 neurological cases were recorded, from which 1308 were fatal (Kilpatrick 2011). In Europe, the virus has been recorded in the Mediterranean Basin since the sixties without any human or animal health consequences. However, the incidence of human and equine neurological cases suddenly increased, in particular since 2010. Two recent studies showed that an above normal temperature linked to the preceding months of outbreaks was strongly linked to this occurrence : this high temperature increases the vector competency of mosquitoes and provokes an increase of the mosquito population densities (Tran, Sudre et al. 2014).

Ecological disruptions induced by climatic variations, but

also by landscape transformation by human or socio-economic disturbances, are the main component of disease emergence. The understanding of mechanisms and conditions that underlie these processes is part of the major challenges that scientist and health policy makers will have to face to in the coming years.

P-1121-06

Low cost portable sensors for measuring traffic related air pollution in tunnel

A. Gorin (1) ; S. Srairi (1) ; D. Guichon (1)

(1) CEREMA, Mobility department, Trappes en Yvelines, France

Air quality monitoring in tunnel has relied traditionally on static measurement instrumentation. However these are expensive methods to capture pollution heterogeneities and identify pollution hotspots. In recent years, the development of portable sensing technology has attracted considerable interest because of the possibility to reduce operating cost of air pollution monitoring.

Despite this, they are few examples in the published literature of pollution measurement using portable sensors in tunnel. In this work, low cost portable sensors are used to measure traffic related air pollution in tunnel within the framework of the research operation "SERRES". The objective of this research operation is to produce recommendations and solutions to limit the impact of road traffic on the environment. Within this research operation, low cost pollution portable sensors are characterized and air pollution measurement are correlated with the traffic data of the tunnel.

The present project was divided into four phases. Phase one was the characterization of the portable pollution sensors. A full set of prelimina tests was realised in laboratory to evaluate the portable sensor reliability and to analyze its performances in terms of accuracy, autonomy and memory capacity. Based on this preliminary tests, two sensors were chosen for their performances: Observ' Air sensor and Cairns sensor. Phase two, the portable sensors were fixed to a static SIRED0 measurement station close to a road. The two sensors were installed for 24 hours. The traffic data recorded by the SIRED0 station were used to analyze the link between traffic condition and air pollution. A correlation between the road traffic condition and the evolution of the air pollution was verified. Phase three was the selection and the instrumentation of a tunnel. The Guy Mòquet tunnel was selected as an experimentation site because it had the following characteristics: easy instrumentation, simple access and close to a static measurement station (SIRED0). The tunnel is located in the Val-de-Marne district of south-east Paris. An instrumentation was realized inside the tunnel in collaboration with the Ile de France territorial division unit in charge of air quality. It involved placing and instrumenting four pollution portable sensors inside the tunnel. In phase four, experimental measurements were conducted and studied. A spatiotemporal analysis was made. The measures given by the portable sensors were compared to the results given by the static measurement station. A link between pollutant concentrations and road traffic condition was demonstrated.

Acknowledgment

This works is supported by the Technical Division for Territorial Development and Urban Planning of the CEREMA.

P-1121-07

Seasonal pattern of the associations between daily mortality and PM10 in Korea and Japan

H. Kim (1) ; Y. Honda (2) ; EK. Satbyul (1)

(1) Seoul National University, School of Public Health, SEOUL, Republic of Korea; (2) University of Tsukuba, 3facity of health and sport sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Background/Aims: Many studies have shown that particulate air pollution exposures are associated with increased mortality. However, only a few studies in Asian countries have examined the modification effects by seasons on air pollution-mortality associations. The aim
of this study was to examine the air pollution-mortality associations within seasons in 13 cities, 6 cities from Japan and 7 cities from Korea, where with four distinct seasons.

Methods: We applied stratified time-series models to the data sets in order to examine whether the effects of particulate matter less than 10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) on mortality was modified by four seasons, spring, summer, fall and winter. We also investigated the association between daily mortality was first quantified within seasons at each location with a time-series model, and the estimates were then pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis using the maximum likelihood method.

Results: The daily means of PM10 in S. Korea were 69.98 □□ for spring, 45.89□□ for summer, 48.80□□ for fall and 56.94□□ for winter. Every 10 increase in PM10 daily concentration was associated with an increase in non-accidental mortality of 0.17% (95% CI confidence interval [CI]: 0.05 to 0.29%) for spring, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.70%) for summer, 0.35% (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.58%) for fall and -0.14% (95% CI: -0.06 to 0.33%) for winter for S. Korea. For Japan, the spring, summer, fall and winter daily PM10 means were 33.96□□, 35.43□□, 31.99□□, and 27.93□□, respectively. Percent change in daily mortality in Japan were 0.44% (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.72%) for spring, 0.15% (95% CI: -0.12 to 0.42%) for summer, 0.33% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.52) for fall and 0.15% (95% CI: -0.23 to 0.53%) for winter, per equivalent increase in PM10.

Conclusion: The results showed that the effects of ambient air pollution on acute mortality differed within seasons and by locations. These findings may provide useful information to agencies for protecting local populations from adverse health effects of air pollution.

P-1121-08

Climate Change Epidemiological Health Reports in Michoacan State, Mexico since2009 to 2013

A. Molina-Garcia (1) ; C. Armendariz-Arnez (2) ; L. Pacheco-Magaña. (2) ; G. Figueroa-Aguilar. (3) ; LA. Saavedra-Romero. (4) ; E. Aranza-Doniz. (5) ; J. Martinez. (6)
(1) Commission on climate change, National University of Michoacan, Mexico; (2) National University Autonomous of Mexico, Campus Morelia, Morelia, Mexico; (3) State Laboratory of Public Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (4) Technical Secretary, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (5) Minister of Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (6) Ministry of Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico

**Objective:** To show the epidemiological reports of the impact on health with local and global environmental change. Data sources: our main reports were measured with parameters like temperature and precipitations during 1950-2000; and climate change scenarios projected to 2020-2030-2050. Also, ozone like air pollutant, 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 spring outbreak; floodings and acute respiratory and diarrheal infectious diseases, dermatitis and conjunctival diseases related with contaminated food, air, water and soil after intense rainfalls; surveillance of viribio parahaemolytic; ocean pH and enterococcus.

Methods: Samples were obtained and sent to state public health laboratory in Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico. Meteorological reports were obtained and reviewed by the Delegational state of the National Commission of Water and analysed by the Athmospheric Science Center from the National University of Michoacan, Mexico. City. Descriptive epidemiological reports were assessed to complete these reports from the epidemiological surveillance health system of michoacan.

Results: Acute infectious diseases were identified like A/H1N1 flu virus and ozone air pollutant in april and may in 2009. Respiratory and diarrheal infectious outbreaks in heavy infalls and flooding in 2010 februaary in the Monarch butterfly biosphere, region in East Michoacan. In the same year, in april an outbreak of viribio parahaemolyticus were presented. And, recently in 2013 a serial reports related with a low level pH decrease in the Pacific ocean coast and the presence of enterococcus were measured. All these results were associated with temperature, precipitations and climate change scenarios since 1950-2000 and 2020, 2030 and 2050 measures in Michoacan.

Conclusions: Acute and infectious diseases were identified in places where our temperature and precipitations are increasing like world reports in ar4 and ar5 IPCC and others epidemiological data have been publishing.

Main Conclusions: Acute and infectious diseases were identified in places where our temperature and precipitations are increasing like world reports in ar4 and ar5 IPCC and others epidemiological data have been publishing.

P-1121-09

Pollen as a health indicator of climate change

S. Monnier (1) ; M. Thibaudon (1) ; JP. Besancenot (1) ; N. Michelot (2)
(1) RNSA, Brussieu, France; (2) MEDDE, Paris, France

Climate change, which is now scientifically proven and well known by everyone, influences plant growth, with unavoidable consequences on pollen. There are still a lot of uncertainties about the changes affecting pollution, but it is not disputed that the prevalence of allergies is on the rise for a number of years. Similarly, the timing and severity of allergic symptoms does seem to be related to climate variations. Indeed, it certainly appears that a warmer climate (both observed in the recent past and projected into the future) leads to more pollen grains in the air, to earlier flowering and pollination dates, to longer pollen seasons, and to повlarward and upward shifts in ranges in plant species. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed rising levels in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. But the major greenhouse gas, i.e. the carbon dioxide (CO2) whose concentration has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 400 ppm in 2014, has also a direct, extra-climatic effect. In fact, it acts as aerial fertilizer and helps plants thrive, causing increases in pollen production, in atmospheric pollen concentrations and, finally, in the number of allergy sufferers. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2003) classifies allergies as the fourth most important chronic disease in the world and considers that these diseases represent «a major public health problem in terms of quality of life, lost days of work or school, drug cost, and even mortality». Today, it is assumed that as many as 20 % of the French population currently have some form of allergy, about half of them suffering from pollen allergy (or pollinosis). Counting and identifying pollen grains over several years enables to estimate and, as a result, to predict the pollination dates of various plant families (in order to institute preventive actions for the benefit of allergy sufferers), but also to detect any changes in the pollen content of the atmosphere and alert the allergists. Moreover, it is well known that the prevalence of allergy in general and in specific regions has increased significantly in recent decades in industrialized countries. Exposure to environmental pollutants may partly explain such an upward trend. As a result of chemical pollution it is possible to observe a reduction in the sensitivity threshold to pollen, for example by deforming or breaking the outer wall of the grain, resulting in the dispersion in the environment of many fragments of pollen grains and cytoplasmic granules. Pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, ozone and NO2 can also irritate airways and the increased airway responsiveness is able to reinforce the effects of pollen allergy. Phenological observations (occurrence of periodic, most often annual, life cycle events, influenced by seasonal and inter-annual variations in climate) are used to evaluate the influence of climate change on vegetation and biodiversity. These observations, when carried out on allergic plant species, help to assess the influence of climate change on human health. At the request of ONERC (National Observatory of Global Warning Effects), RNSA (French Aerobiology Network) undertook in 2012 and then updated annually a study aiming at the construction of a health indicator in the Health and Society Chapter of the ONERC catalogue of climate change indicators. The results obtained from birch pollen data (high allergenic potential throughout Europe and sensitivity to long-term climate events) of six cities with different climates in the French metropolitan area, in pollen concentration with a rate of about 20 % during the last 20 years. This increasing trend has been associated with increasing regional temperatures, suggesting that climate change already be having an impact on atmospheric pollen concentrations. In the future, global warming and rising temperatures could lead to a further increase in the amount of pollen in the air. This can only aggravate allergic hazards and thereby jeopardize public health. In view of the COP21 solutions, the goal is to find solutions to limit the effects of climate change.
change on pollen and health. One of the main objectives pursued by RNSA is to inform the public on the risks and attitudes we must have in order to limit the health impact of pollutants and pollen on allergic sufferers. The missions of monitoring, warning and prevention of allergic risk given to the RNSA fit into this perspective and should allow the implementation of adequate policies by health authorities.

P-1121-10

Simulations of Pollutant Dispersal over Nairobi City, Kenya

G. Otieno (1)

(1) university of nairobi, meteorology, nairobi, Kenya

The current rapid deterioration of air quality in urban centres can be attributed to urbanization. Poor air quality has been associated with several negative effects on human health, climate and ecosystems. Most cities in developing countries, especially in Africa have poor or in some cases no air quality management systems in place despite having the fastest growing urban populations. City populations have high vulnerability to the impacts air pollution following high density of residents and economic activities as well.

Air pollution is evident in most cities; the case of Nairobi is an illustrative of this. The common air pollutants include carbon monoxide and total suspended particulates among others, the latter being the most widespread and the most serious for human health.

This study simulated air pollutant dispersal over the city using Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT), considering a case for emission of total suspended particles into the environment. The predominant wind speed over the city is 4-6 knots and the wind direction is easterly. The forward trajectory of a pollutant released in the city is generally observed to flow to the western side of the city. The pollutant is observed to be dispersed beyond 100 km from the city reducing the concentration of the same in the city.

The study thus recommends for a consultative planning process of the city that factors in the wind characteristics over the extreme western side of the city to minimize concentration of pollutants over the city. The study further recommends studies that studies be carried out to ascertain the quality of rain water during the long rain season.

P-1121-11

Impact of hot weather on injuries and accidents in high income countries - a literature review

E. Otte Im Kampe (1) ; S. Hajat (1) ; S. Kovats (1)

(1) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Introduction: Given predictions of increased frequency of hot weather periods due to climate change it is crucial to have prevention measures in place to reduce the health burden of heat waves. Since injuries have often been overlooked in relation to hot weather the aim of this review is to summarize the evidence on the effect of hot weather on unintentional injuries in high income countries to inform policy and programme initiatives designed to reduce the burden of injuries. Methods: The following data bases were searched (28/02/2015): Global Public Health, Embase, Medline. Studies reporting heatstroke were excluded as the purpose of this review is to report on non-heat related injuries. Eligibility was assessed by one reviewer. 19 studies were included. Results: Preliminary results of this review showed for 15 out of 19 studies an increased risk of unintentional injuries during hot weather. A Spanish study reported that 60% (69) of all firefighter deaths due to aildland fire entrapment occurred on high temperatures days. In the Netherlands an increase of 15% of 354,150 trauma patients for each 10°C increase was observed above a threshold of 6°C. In France an excess mortality due to injury and poisoning in particular for people under 35 years was reported. Hot weather conditions in Italy showed higher risk for work-related accidents, in particular on early summer days. 3 studies from the US

showed for high temperatures a strong increase in hospital admissions in accidental causes and an increased risk of fatality due to accidental cocaine overdose in contrast, 1 study from Australia did not find an association between emergency hospital admissions due to injuries during extreme heat events. Another Australian study reported decreases in sport accidents, falls and blunts in children and a decrease in motor vehicle related accidents among the elderly. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the 1st review of the effect of hot weather on unintentional injuries. Our review indicates that hot weather periods may increase the risk of unintentional injuries and accidents in high income countries. The results are valuable for health system planning and injury prevention strategies.

P-1121-12

Air Pollution Transport Processes and Human Health Impacts over the Middle Hill Urban Centers of Nepal Himalaya

RP. Regmi (1)

(1) Tribhuan University, Central Department of Physics, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

Urban centers of Nepal are mostly located in deep valleys, narrow river basins and in southern plain areas, more or less shaped like valleys and in proximity to the high mountains. The meteorological conditions associated with such topographic features have been found to be highly adverse and may be bad up severe air pollution even where the local emissions are low. In consideration with their associated topography and the meteorological conditions that could possibly prevail, Nepalese urban centers in the middle hills are expected to be highly vulnerable to air pollution. Prevalence of dust, particulate and other pollutants in the ambient air of these urban centers have already reached to an unacceptable level. The lack of necessary infrastructure, mechanism of transport and formation of pollutant fields in these swelling urban centers have given rise to serious uncertainties with respect to the air quality degradation, development of control systems, and urban planning. Observations and numerical simulation studies on prevailing wintertime meteorology and air pollutants distribution and their dynamics have revealed that the bowl-shaped Kathmandu valley possesses high air pollution potential due to its adverse meteorological and topographic conditions particularly during the dry winter season. The poor dispersion power of the valley can easily reach into its saturation if substantial amount of air pollution is continuously loaded into its atmosphere. Concurrent investigation of human-air pollution exposure status based on the results of numerical simulation revealed that more than 52 per cent of total Kathmandu residents were living in areas with concentration above 40 ug/m-3 of PM10. Significant health endpoints attributable to PM10 over the Kathmandu valley have been predicted. Other urban centers are developing in the same pursuits. In this paper, we will present the atmospheric transport processes over the middle hills of Nepal Himalaya and their role in pumping up the lowland pollutants up into the Himalayas including the prevailing wintertime meteorology, mechanism of air pollution transport and formation of pollutant fields, human exposure and health endpoints over the Kathmandu valley.

P-1121-13

Seasonal variations of aerosols in Pakistan: Contributions of domestic anthropogenic emissions and transboundary transport

MZ. Shahid (1)

(1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China., State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing, France

Air pollution has become a serious challenge for developing countries like Pakistan. Very scarce information is available regarding pollution levels in this geographic region. This study presents the first modelling work to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal variation of aerosol concentrations over Pakistan for using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulated aerosols species include sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, black carbon, and
PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 mm or less), which are evaluated against ground-based observations and satellite measurements. In year 2006, simulated PM2.5 concentrations averaged over northeastern Pakistan (71–74.5°E, 28–34°N) are 55, 48.5, 31.5, and 98 µg m⁻³ in January, April, July, and October, respectively. The simulated highest PM2.5 concentration in October results from the relatively low temperatures that favor nitrate formation as well as the lowest precipitation that leads to the smallest wet deposition of all aerosol species. The simulated lowest concentration of PM2.5 in July can be attributed to the largest precipitation associated with the South Asian summer monsoon. Sensitivity studies show that transboundary transport contributes to PM2.5 aerosol levels in northeastern Pakistan by 10–20% in January and April and by 10–40% in July and October of year 2006. Wind over India and Pakistan is found to be the major meteorological parameter that determines the transboundary aerosol transport.

P-1121-14

## Enhanced critical load capacity of soil due to buffering of atmospheric acidity through deposition of soil derived particulate matter in Delhi (India)

D. Sharma (1)

(1) Jawaharlal Nehru University, School of Environmental Sciences, New Delhi, Delhi, India

This paper reports air quality characterization using data of MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and measured Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM), NO2 and SO2 values across India. The levels of these pollutants were mapped using geospatial techniques. The results show significant differences in the levels of SPM, NO2 and SO2 across rural and urban sites. In general, districts of central and northern India show relatively higher SPM concentrations as compared to southern India. The SPM values were noted to have a significant correlation with the AOD values at different sites. Further a trend analysis of SPM, NO2 and SO2 in the Delhi region, which was carried out using the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data, revealed a continuous increase in the SPM levels in the city. This lead to the calculation of the critical load of atmospheric acidity for nitrogen and sulphur in order to check the vulnerability of the soil systems in Delhi. A Critical Load approach similar to the one used in European method, was applied to assess the vulnerability of natural systems to the present day atmospheric pollution scenario in the capital of Delhi. The calculated values of critical loads of sulphur (225 – 275 eq/hay/yr) and nitrogen (298 – 303 eq/hay/yr), for the soil system in Delhi, were calculated with respect to Anjan grass, Hibiscus and Black sirs. According to the results, present loads of sulphur (PL(S) = 26.40 eq/hay/yr) and nitrogen (PL(N) = 36.51 eq/hay/yr) were found to be much lower than their critical loads which means that the present levels of acidity do not pose any danger to the soil systems. The study indicated that the system is still protective due to high pH of the soil. The nature of buffering capability of calcium derived from soil dust can be considered as a natural tool to combat acidification in the Indian region. The results showed that the pollution status in Delhi is still within the safe limits. However, at the pace at which the city is growing, it is likely that in coming decades, it may exceed these critical values. The approach is very useful, not only in abating pollution but also in devising means of cost optimal emission abatement strategies, and can be applied the across entire Indian region.

P-1121-15

## Characteristics of aerosol optical and physical properties during major dust storm and intense biomass burning events over a mega-city of Lahore (Pakistan)

S. Tariq (1)

(1) University of the Punjab, Remote sensing andgis group, department of space science, Punjab, Pakistan

Aerosol particles released due to natural and anthropogenic activities have very important effects on human health and climate of the region. In the present study aerosol optical and physical properties have been analyzed during major dust storm (March 2012) and intense biomass

burning (October 2013) events over a mega-city of Lahore (Pakistan). In this work we have used AERONET data (level 2.0) to analyze the aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (440/870) (AE), fine mode fraction (FMF), volume size distribution, single scattering albedo (SSA), real and imaginary parts of refractive index (RI), asymmetry parameter (ASY) and aerosol radiative forcing. We have also used available satellite based measurements during both events. ARL's HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) over backward trajectories were also computed to understand the transport of aerosol particles during both the events. The daily average AOD value (2.17) at 500 nm was found to be highest on 20 March 2012 with corresponding FMF value of 0.27 indicating the dominance of coarse mode particles due to dust storm over Lahore. While during intense biomass burning event peak value (2.36) of AOD was observed on 9 October 2013 with corresponding FMF value of 0.97 pointing towards the fact that fine mode aerosol particles have greater contribution towards total AOD in the atmosphere of Lahore. Volume distribution was observed to be maximum (~1.7) at a radius of ~1.69 on 20 March 2012, whereas volume percentage (~0.33) was found to be highest at a radius of ~0.27 during 9 October 2013. Significant increase in SSA with wavelength was observed during dust storm while during biomass burning period it decreased with wavelength. Aerosol radiative forcing was found to be -265 and -199 Wm⁻2 during dust storm and biomass burning periods respectively.

P-1121-16

## Numerical Characterization of the NOx Formation during MSW Incineration

AB. Timoléon (1)

(1) Faculté des Sciences, Université des Sciences et Techniques de Masuku, Chimie, Franceville, Gabon

A numerical model has been developed (Chemkin) to study combustion processes in a fixed bed reactor. The test section is divided into several successive Perfect Stirred Reactor (PSR). At the entry, the thermal degradation species of the solid are used as input and at the exit the exhaust gases are recovered. Comparison of previously experimental results and the current model output has been compared with good agreement. The study demonstrates that the NO formation and reduction is controlled by the combustion regime so are mainly dependant of the primary excess air of combustion. The model has been used to establish the reaction pathways of formation and reduction of the NOx at different locations in the reactor as a function of this parameter. This has allowed defining what is occurring at each specific location of the reactor. The reaction pathways and sensitivity study has shown that the production of NO is controlled mostly by local oxygen concentration, thus the location of the NO production region depends mostly on the primary air injection. From this description of the principal reacting zones and of the intermediate species it is possible to develop and to optimize primary technique of NOx reduction.
# 1122 - Global warming hiatus

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-1122-01

#### Global warming and sea level rise

**A. Cazenave (1)**

(1) CNES, LEGOS, Toulouse, France

It is now well established that the Earth's climate is warming because accumulation inside theatmosphere of green house gases produced by anthropogenic fossil fuel combustion and landuse change (mostly deforestation). Global warming has already several visible consequences, in particular increase of the ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn cause sea levelto rise. Sea level rise induced by global warming and its impacts in coastal zones has become a question of growing interest for in the scientific community, and the media and public. In this presentation, we summarize the most up-to-date knowledge about climate change and associated impacts on ocean warming, land ice melt and sea level rise. We also present sealwal projections for the 21st century under different warming scenarios, highlighting theregional variability that superimposes the global mean rise. Finally, we briefly discuss the coastal zones case where climate-related sea level rise generally amplifies the vulnerability of these regions already impacted by many other factors due to natural phenomena and directanthropogenic forcing.

### K-1122-02

#### Greenland ice cores tell tales on the extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet during past warm climate periods

**D. Dahl-Jensen (1)**

(1) Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Knowledge on the long-term response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate warming duringpast interglacials is essential for estimating the potential of future rise in sea level. During the last million years, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GRIS) has waxed and waned in response to glacial and interglacial periods. The deep ice cores through the Greenland ice sheet contance from the time ice covered the site. From the last interglacial period (the Eemian, LIG)130 to 115 kyears before present is present in most of the deep ice cores and can be used todetermine both temperature and extent of the ice sheet during this warm interglacialperiod. Going to the bed, basal material enclosed in the ice cores contain DNA remnants that can beused to determine the ecosystems present before ice covered Greenland. The reaction of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes and the sea level change fromommass loss from the Greenland ice sheet is discussed based on the ice core findings.

### K-1122-03

#### Uncertainties in Mass Balance Studies of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

**J. Comiso (1)**

(1) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 615, Greenbelt, MD, United States of America

The longest continuous observations of the global sea ice cover was derived from satellite passive microwave sea ice data starting with the launch of the Nimbus-7 SMMR in October 1978 and followed by a series of DMSP/SSM/I sensors launched from July 1987 to the present. These capabilities werefurther improved with the launch of Aqua/AMSR-E which provided higher resolution data from June 2002 to October 2011 and followed by the launched of GCOM-W/AMSR2 which has been in operation from 2012 up to the present. Putting together an accurate time

series data set has been a challenge because of differences in fields-of-view, antenna side-lobs, calibration and other physical attributes of the different sensors. Through comparative analysis of overlapping data, however, some of these problems have been minimized and the accuracy in the assessments of the variability and trends of ice extent and ice area has been optimized. The ice extent provides the sum of areas in the ocean that has ice cover of at least 15% ice concentration while ice area provides the actual area covered by ice and used to estimate the ice volume assuming that the average thickness of the ice cover is known. The current record from 1978 to 2014 shows a trend in ice area of about 4.3 ± 0.16% per decade for the yearly average but a more drastic change is observed for the thick multiyear ice the trend of which is about 14.9±1.6% per decade suggesting large declines in the average ice thickness of this ice type. Measurements of ice thickness have been the source of greatest uncertainties since accurate, continuous and consistent time series measurements of global ice thickness are not available. Historically, ice thickness measurements have been sparse and were done primarily using upward looking submarine sonar data which have been used to show a significant change in average winter ice thickness from about 3.6 m in 1980 to about 2.9 m in 2000. Ice freeboard measurements from ICESat/GLAS (January 2003-February 2010) provide more extensive coverage and indicate a change in winter thickness from about 2.4 m in 2004 to 1.9 m in 2008. More recent freeboard measurements from CryosSat2 (April 2010 to the present) provided a continuation of the satellite measurements and show a more stable ice cover. Although retrieve thicknesses from freeboard measurements have indicated relatively low biases (less than 0.1m) compared to in situ and other measurements, there are large standard deviations (0.7m) in the comparative analysis suggesting that more accurate snow thickness and ice density data are needed. The use of the improved measurements of average sea ice thickness separately for seasonal and multiyear ice in conjunction with passive microwave data would provide the desired estimate for average volume of the two major ice types. Time series of such data are needed in mass balance studies of the Arctic sea ice cover and uncertainties associated with the use of current data sets will be provided.

### O-1122-01

#### What can we learn from the recent global warming hiatus about climate variability and climate models?

**H. Douville (1); A. Voldoire (1)**

(1) Météo-France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

The observed rise in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has slowed down over the last 15 years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper range of transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have, however, tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, model results can be quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multidecadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the slower slowdown of global warming over land and the transition toward a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet the observed global sea ice was still overestimated not only in the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings. Besides fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations, we therefore advocate the use of suitable partial-coupling techniques to control a fraction of the internal climate variability. This strategy could enable a more insightful comparison with the strategy
observed climate variability and, thereby, lead to stronger
observational constraints on model sensitivity to the
prescribed radiative forcings.

O-1122-02

Eurasia winter cooling in a recent warming
hiatus period of 1998-2012

C. Li, (1); J. Marotzke, (1)

(1) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Ocean in the
Earth System, Hamburg, Germany

The global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a comparatively small warming trend over 1998-2012, termed a hiatus (Meehl et al., 2011; Flato et al., 2013; Kosaka and Xie, 2013). In addition to the warming hiatus of GMST in the recent decade, Cohen et al. [2012] found a significant winter (seasons refer to those for the Northern Hemisphere hereafter) cooling trend on the Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropial land surface temperature. However, the relative magnitudes of the contribution from temperature trend at different latitude bands and also the mechanism of the NH mid-latitude winter cooling are poorly understood. Here we investigate the spatial pattern of surface temperature trends and the contribution of surface temperature trend reduction at different latitude bands with observational data, and the causation of NH mid-latitude winter cooling with large ensembles of AMIP-type sensitivity simulations.

In addition to the tropical Pacific cooling over 1998-2012, we find the GMST warming hiatus is strongly influenced by a pronounced DJF cooling trend over 1998-2011 in NH mid-latitude, especially in Eurasia. However, an absent of the strong mid-latitude winter cooling trend in the previous simulations with restoring the observed SST over tropical Pacific in a coupled climate model Kosaka and Xie [2013] underlines that mechanisms other than cooling in the tropical Pacific must contribute to the warming hiatus in recent decade. In the present study, we explore the impact of the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice on the NH large-scale circulation changes and the NH mid-latitude winter cooling trend. We found that the Arctic sea ice does not drive systemic changes on the NH large-scale circulation as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) and the Eurasia winter blocking frequency in the past decades. And the observed DJF cooling trend over 1998-2012 is a random internal variability and belongs to a extreme climate events. Although the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice does not drive systematic cooling trend of Eurasia winter climate, but it can enhance the variability of Eurasia winter climate, and thus increasing the possibility of the Eurasia winter reaching an extreme cold trend over 1998-2012.

O-1122-03

Impacts of External Forcing on the Decadal
Climate Variability in CMIP5 Simulations

Y. Yu, (1); Y. Song, (1)

(1) Institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing, China

Decadal climate variability is usually regarded as an
internal variability in the climate system. However,
using the coupled simulations from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we have
demonstrated that the external radiative forcing plays
an important role in modulating decadal variability of the
global mean surface air temperature (SAT). In historical
runs, the standard deviations of the global mean SAT
exhibit robust increases relative to pre-industrial runs,
indicating that external forcing acts on decadal variability
of the global mean SAT through enhancing amplitude
and modulating phase. By comparing model results
using different external forcing agents, we find the
natural-forcing agent has the strongest impact on the
decadal timescale. Every type of simulation (e.g., the pre-
industrial, historical, natural forcing and anthropogenic
forcing runs) from almost all the CMIP5 models exhibits a
high correlation between the at shortwave (SW) radiative
flux at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and the global
mean SAT with a 13 month lag. However, after taking the
multi-model ensemble mean for the TOA SW and the SAT,
respectively, the correlations from external-forcing run
are much higher than the runs. This is because that the decadal
SAT anomalies from multiple

models cancel each other out in the pre-industrial runs
without external forcing, but generally follow decadal
evolution of the external forcing by a 13 month lag.
The most significant responses to external forcing are
found in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans, through
with different physical mechanisms for the natural and
greenhouse gas forcing agents.

O-1122-04

Change Points of Global Temperature

N. Cahill (1); S. Rahmstorf (2)

(1) University College Dublin, Mathematical Science, Dublin,
Ireland; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Potsdam, Germany

We aim to address the question of whether or not there
is a recent "hiatus", "pause" or "slowdown" of global
temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known
as change point analysis we identify the statistically
significant changes in four global temperature records
and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after
these changes occur. In each case, the results indicate that
three change points are enough to accurately capture the
variability in the data with no evidence of any significant
change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude
that a hiatus or pause cannot be statistically
justified.

O-1122-05

Impact of initial conditions and atmospheric model resolution in predicting "Climate Hiatuses"

S. Corti (1)

(1) National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric
Science and Climate (ISAC), Bologna, Italy

The results from a set of multi-year hindcasts carried
out with the ECMWF coupled system at two different
resolutions of the atmospheric component will be
presented. The first experiment, the results of a control
series of ensemble hindcasts with the atmospheric model
integrated at T255 with 91 levels in vertical (this is the
current resolution of the ECMWF System4). The ocean
resolution is the standard NEMO-ORCA1. In the sensitivity
experiment the atmospheric resolution has increased to
T511 (the ocean resolution is the same). By comparing
the control and the sensitivity experiment we estimate the
impact of the increased atmospheric resolution on forecast
quality.

The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings
in multi-year integrations is further assessed using
specifically designed sensitivity experiments. They consist,
for each atmospheric resolution, of three sets of ensemble
hindcasts for three initial dates in 1988, 1994 and 2002
using either the external forcings from the "correct"
decade or swapping the forcings between the three
decades. By comparing the three sets of integrations, the
impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on
the predictability over multi-annual time scales is estimated.
In particular we estimate the sensitivity of the model to
initial conditions and horizontal resolution in predicting
the multi-year climate oscillations that modulate the
global warming trend, also known as "Climate Hiatuses".

O-1122-06

Multi-model simulations of radiative
forcing of aerosols and ozone during the
1990-2015 period

G. Myhre (1); B.H. Samset (2); Ø. Hodnebrog, (1); R.B. Skeie
(1); Z. Klimont, (3); G. Faluvegi (4); D. Shindell (5); M.
Flanner (6); D. Olive (7); S. Tsyro (7); M. Schulz (7); R.
Cherian (8); J. Quaas (8); J. Mulmenstädt (8); T. Takemura
(9); J. Schnell (10); M. Prather (10)

(1) CICERO, Oslo, Norway; (2) CICERO, Climate System, Oslo, Norway; (3) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) GISS, New York, United States of America; (5) Duke University, Durham, United States of America; (6) University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America; (7) Met.no, Oslo, Norway; (8) University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; (9) Kyushu University, Kyushu, Japan; (10) University of California, Irvine, Irvine, United States of America
Seven global models have simulated the changes in aerosols and ozone over the 1990-2015 period, and the associated radiative forcing. The models have used updated emission data from the EU-project Eclipse. The modelled changes in aerosol abundance at the surface in terms of PM2.5 show broad agreement with observations, whereas they generally underestimate the overall increase in surface ozone over US and Europe. We focus on model-mean radiative forcing and the spread among the models, and compare this to estimated radiative forcing in IPCC AR5. The models show remarkably good agreement for the direct aerosol effect of sulphate, and for carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources. However, for nitrate the differences are large. Over the 1990-2015 period, the models simulate a positive direct aerosol effect radiative forcing of sulphate and black carbon, due to a

reduction the sulphate abundance and increase in black carbon abundance. The model mean shows relatively small changes in the indirect aerosol effect over the investigated period. It is indicated that including semi-direct effect of black carbon is important, even though few models have been able to quantify this forcing. Overall the models have a more strongly positive aerosol radiative forcing over the 1990-2015 period than IPCC AR5. Similarly the ozone radiative forcing over the same period is simulated in this study to have a more positive radiative forcing than IPCC AR5. Based on these multi-model simulations using updated emission data of aerosols and ozone, we find no indications that these forcing agents are driving the global warming hiatus.

# 1123 - Climate change education for sustainable development

## 1123-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-1123-01

#### Climate Change Engineering: An emerging pathway to address Climate Change Challenges

A. Batisha (1)

(1) Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

To survive in the future, the professional engineers should be qualified to deal with different and diverse subjects of climate change challenges. The focus of this work is to bridge the gap between the academia and the professional practice in the field of Climate Change CC. So, the professional engineers should have an adequate knowledge about wide and different Climate change engineering CCE disciplines. The focus of CCE is to promote Sustainability and optimally responding to CC challenges. CCE may be defined as the application of mathematical, scientific, environmental, and technical knowledge to invent, design, build, maintain, and improve structures, products, machines, devices, systems, materials and processes for the purpose of sustaining both the global and local properties of the Earth and its habitability. The paper focuses on the purpose, activities; and issues of CCE. The role of Climate change engineer has been addressed. The main finding of this article is to highlight CCE with invaluable insights into multidisciplinary engineering that help improve current operations and shape future strategies in the Era of Climate Change. The resultant conclusion is that the role CC plays in the success or failure of development efforts must be considered by applying CCE principles.

### P-1123-02

#### Education on climate change through generation of local data

R. Curcoll (1); A. Águeda (1); O. Batet, (1); S. Borràs, (1); L. Cañas Ramírez (1); C. Grossi, (1); M. Nofuentes Ramos (0); P. Occhipinti, (1); E. Vazquez, (1); X. Rodó (2); J.A. Morgui (0)

(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Lab atmosphere & oceans, Barcelona, Spain; (2) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Climate dynamics and impacts unit, Barcelona, Spain

Education covers a key part in the global response to climate change. Understanding the behaviour of ecosystems, the role of the cities or the orders of magnitude of atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations help scholars and citizenship to gain a more conscious and active attitude on the climatic challenge and its causes.

Researchers from the Laboratory of the Atmosphere and Oceans (LAO) at the Catalan Institute of Climate Science (IC3) have developed several educational activities of outreach and workshops with scholars and citizenship to make the population aware of the causes generating climate changes and how they can contribute in reducing it. All these activities share a common aim: scholars or citizens generate and collect quality data allowing

them to better understand processes that happen in our environment, regardless whether they are biological or anthropogenic processes. Another important objective of these educational activities consists in making scholars and citizenship active participants of the scientific community discussing and studying the generated data with other groups.

The kind of measurements can be, for instance, atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations, meteorological parameters or radiation measurements. Data generated from these measurements allow knowing the general greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere and the relative increase due to fossil fuel combustions: this kind of studies makes the citizenship much more aware in understanding the role of cities in the global emissions or the relation of the ecosystems behaviour with water and temperature.

### P-1123-03

#### Mainstreaming climate change into fisheries and aquatic sciences curriculum and training in tertiary academic institutions

J. Efitre (1); R. Ogutu-Ohwayo (2); W. Okello (3); K. Odongkara (4); V. Natugonza (2); L. Musinguzi (5)

(1) Department of Biological Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; (2) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), Jinja, Uganda; (3) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), NaFIRRI, (4) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), ,Jinja, Uganda; (5) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), Fish habitat Management, Jinja, Uganda

Fisheries resources in Uganda contribute to food security, employment, income and livelihoods but are threatened by over-exploitation, pollution, habitat degradation, invasive species and climate variability and change. However, climate variability and change has been little studied yet it is adding to or interacting with other stressors to affect riparian ecosystems, fish habitats, aquatic productivity, fish yields and livelihoods. There is inadequate knowledge, training and institutional capacity to address climate change in fisheries in Uganda as in most African countries. There is therefore need to build capacity through mainstreaming climate change into the curriculum of tertiary training and research institutions. International, regional and national policies have recommended incorporating climate change into education and training from primary to tertiary institutions. Some training institutions in Uganda have curricula in basic and applied fisheries and freshwater science but many of these do not address issues of climate variability and change. This curriculum and manual was therefore developed to address this shortfall. Its overall objective is to mainstream climate change in inland freshwater systems and fisheries. The specific objectives are to: 1) develop a training curriculum and manual that will be used to train students in climate change and fisheries in tertiary education and research institutions and 2) mainstream climate change into the undergraduate and graduate fisheries and aquaculture curricula. This is expected to build scientific and technical capacity to: 1) anticipate and evaluate changes in climate and its impacts; 2) communicate information to stakeholders to enable them design, test and implement adaptation strategies and mitigation measures; 3) increase human resource capacity through reviewing and strengthening the national education system; and 4) promote science and technology
as stipulated in Uganda's National Development Plan (NDP) and Agriculture Sector Development Strategy and Investment Plan (DSIP). The manual is organized into six modules namely: Non-climate factors which together with climate change affect natural resources; Introduction to climate change; Climate change and physical, chemical and ecological properties and productivity of inland aquatic ecosystems and fisheries; Climate change and aquaculture; Socio-economic impacts, adaptations and mitigations; and Policy, legal and institutional frameworks. Each module consists of units to be delivered through lectures, brainstorming sessions, case studies, field visits, group discussions, computer exercises and seminar presentations. The training curriculum and manual was completed in 2014 and is ready for pretesting in tertiary academic institutions in Uganda.

## P-1123-04

# The Importance of Environmental Education for Sustainability

**M. Eid (1)**

(1) Suez Canal University, Faculty of Agriculture, Ismailia, Egypt

It is an undoubted fact that human beings are having a significant impact on the nature environment. As the global population continues to rise, human place more and more pressure on a finite number of resources. Human environmental impacts can largely be attributing to consumption patterns. However, the ability to meet the needs of the current generation while preserving the ability of future generation to meet their needs, it would be reasonable to search for way to minimize human impact on the environmental and to build a sustainable world for the future.

It is considered that the best way to raise awareness of sustainability and environmental issued and finally, changing behavior to more sustainable practices is through environment education. Therefore, environmental education is not just about learning, it is about understanding issues confronting our planet and changing individual attitudes values and changing the attitude of environmental aware towards achieving suitability for the future.

This poster will discuss approaches and principles of environmental education and study case.

## P-1123-05

# Teaching climate change: An interdisciplinary challenge

**R. Engelhardt (1)**

(1) School of Global Health, UCPH, Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research, Copenhagen K, Denmark

Climate change education is inherently interdisciplinary. It requires teachers to possess a broad range of competencies and to apply alternating teaching methods bringing into play the skills and knowledge of the whole classroom. If one defines interdisciplinary learning as the ability to know and coordinate a growing number of perspectives, it becomes the teacher's primary task to support students in their explorative and coordinative efforts. A research project running from 2013 to 2016 at the University of Copenhagen has investigated the pedagogical and didactic challenges in two interdisciplinary Master's Programs - one of them called 'Master of Disaster' (MDaM) at the Faculty of Health and the other 'Master of Science (MSc) in Climate Change' (CCIMA) at the Faculty of Science. Preliminary findings show a weak institutional support for interdisciplinary teaching and a lack of coordination among topics covered in the curricula. When worst, teaching becomes a kind of serial - or rather 'parallel disciplinarity' - where modularly formatted perspectives produce mutually incomprehensible monologues. When best, lead instructors use a variety of inductive teaching methods and provide an impartial overview of the conceptual schemes involved.

## P-1123-06

# Getting from here to a sustainable world: Why "handprint" measurement which drives pro-environment behavior be crucial to addressing climate change?

**C. Hemani (1)**

(1) Self employed, Ahmedabad, India

Exponential increase in human population from 5 million in 8000 BC to over 7 billion humans in 2012 coupled with unsustainable consumption and production patterns is putting an undue pressure on the limited natural resources. It's not planet and the diminishing natural resources but our own species at risk if we continue with this present model of development. Thus climate change is not an issue in isolation, but rather, a symptom of a broader challenge: humanity's systematic overuse of the planet's finite resources. This accelerating gap between human demand and nature's supply is leading to another crunch of bio-capacity.

In a world facing climate change issues and a bio-capacity crunch, the winning economic strategies will be preserving bio-capacity on the one hand, and reducing demand for it on the other which in turn would serve as the leading strategies for minimising climate change. But how is this possible? Climate change and high carbon lifestyles as a narrative of future gloom and doom only disempowers people to act. What if we focus on solution rather than problem? What if we focus on accounting positive actions powered by pro-environment behaviour to drive low carbon lifestyles? Sustainable development would require changes in the way we think and act. And education is one of the most effective mediums to bring about changes in values, behaviour and lifestyles required to achieve sustainability.

Scientifically driven and educative accounting tools like carbon foot print, ecological foot print measures our actions either in terms of amount of carbon dioxide released in the atmosphere or in terms of resources of the earth which would be needed to match our lifestyles and suggests our negative impacts on the environment respectively. While Handprint is a symbol of positive measure for what we can do individually or through collective effort to restore the balance between consumption and the planet's carrying capacity. Studies suggest that positive accounting not only presents hope but also suggests how it affects behaviour changes in benefiting society to drive more positive actions. Handprint accounting is one such educative tool to drive pro-environment behaviour and actions.

It answers questions like how my changes in behaviour and actions would result in greenhouse gas reductions and would contribute to safe guarding environment, promoting sustainable development and thus would help in achieving climate change mitigation caps. Such measures would act as a roadmap to achieve a sustainable future.

This research focuses on developing a scientifically driven educational tool for handprint which in turn establishes links between measuring positive actions via handprint scores driving climate smart behaviour and climate change mitigation potential.

## P-1123-07

# Studies on research initiatives for developing strategic knowledge on climate change impacts in India

**A. Kamavisdar (1) ; R. Kumar (2) ; N. Mendiratta (3) ; R. Singh (3) ; K. Samuel (3) ; A. Gupta (1)**

(1) Climate Change Programme, Department of Science & Technology, Govt. of India, New Delhi, India; (2) Access to Knowledge Division, Department of scientific and industrial research, New Delhi, India; (3) Climate Change Programme, Department of science & technology, New Delhi, India

This is well-known fact that Indian economy is based on its natural resources, agriculture and forestry, which are climate sensitive sectors. Considering the above India may expect considerable variations in vulnerability due to projected climate change phenomenon. In response to the same Government has prepared a National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) comprising of eight
different national missions. Amongst these eight national missions, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKC) is expected to build an active knowledge system related to climate change issues in the country, that may help national actions for responding effectively to the objectives of ecosocially sustainable development. This NMSKC mission includes various issues to address climate change science with region specific modelling related to national objectives, international cooperation and strengthening the plans for development of new technologies for adaptation and mitigation and also expected to cover knowledge gaps that are to be bridged. It also proposes to develop human and institutional capacity-building actions related to climate change issues. These activities are being considered necessary for designing policy responses and implementation approaches at the national level and also for providing inputs to negotiations at the international platforms. This mission will work as a support mission to other seven national missions by providing strategic knowledge. Since considerable data resources are already available with various Ministries, academic and research and development institutes in India, a credible data sharing mechanism is also proposed to be developed under this mission.

In this presentation attempts are being made to discuss the development initiatives for "Strategic Knowledge on climate change in India" that includes establishment of knowledge networks in the areas of climate change science with modelling as well as health. Amongst the various R&D projects supported, under this mission, in the areas of seas level rise, forests fire, agriculture, ocean acidification, glacier studies and sustainable livelihoods, a number of strategic reports are expected to be published. Under the programme this mission will work as a support mission to other seven national missions by providing strategic knowledge. Since considerable data resources are already available with various Ministries, academic and research and development institutes in India, a credible data sharing mechanism is also proposed to be developed under this mission.

P-1123-08

Climate change and Health- Training Resources for capacity building

V. Kendrovski (1) ; B. Menne (2) ; S. Gerardo (3) ; J. Creswick (4) ; T. Wolf (4)

(1) World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, health security and the environment, Bonn, Germany; (3) WHO, Bonn, Germany; (4) WHO, Cgs, Bonn, Germany

As climate change and its respective health effects are being observed across Europe, it is being suggested that development and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened. Health adaptation to climate change involves knowledge and skills in a range of professions and across various sectors - not only technical but also skills involving personal interactions. A systematic training approach has been missing for many years. The available information is now presented in a structured modular collection in order to make these valuable resources accessible and to fill identified gaps in knowledge and capacity development. The WHO Regional Office for Europe has developed a collection of training resources for capacity building on climate change and health. The overall aim is to support the development of climate change and health strategies and action plans by providing scientific, technical, methodological and practical background information and training to member organisations. Thus, the training and education offers the opportunity to raise awareness among professionals with regard to observed and projected climate change in Europe, and related health effects, and to support health adaptation policy development and implementation in an intersectoral setting. The training resources (manual + suggested training materials) contain a structured compilation of existing and new training materials according to defined learning objectives. The three modular thematic blocks cover the basics of climate change and associated health effects - one presents a framework for

the development of adaptation strategies and programmes of action - and draw attention to co-benefits of health of climate change mitigation measures in the health sector and in other sectors. Use of a range of training methods creates an interactive and participatory learning environment. These are intended to enable WHO European Member States to respond to and anticipate capacity building needs for climate change and health. Training resources can assist health policy-makers, planners and practitioners in the process of harnessing the potential of adaptation to climate change in order to meet health goals and targets.

P-1123-09

Does the public policy for influencing pro- environmental behaviour in the developed countries take into account people's com- mon future under climate change?

LI. Udrea (1)

(1) Keele University, School of Politics, International Relations and Environment, Staffordshire, United Kingdom

Public policy in the richest countries regarding environmental protection is currently based on 'monetising' nature - regarding it as a form of capital. The UK government tries to tackle climate change using a multitude of approaches however; the most effective ones to influence pro-environmental behaviour in the long term are yet to be found.

In this paper, I will discuss the approaches followed by the UK government to influence people adopt a pro- environmental behaviour pursuing them to change their unsustainable lifestyle using financial incentives, nudging and population segmentation. These approaches give people strong reasons to take the 'right' actions in the short term; however, when the incentives are stopped, they need to find by themselves the motivation to act pro-environmentally. As a result, I state that the UK government does not set a straightforward connection between people's common future under climate change and the duty to protect the natural world.

In the UK context, individuals are not informed, but incentivised to act pro-environmentally via a series of price signals or nudges that encourage them to change their behaviour. I argue for the need to offer constructive feedback as a response to people's harmful behaviour and facilitate the crosscutting contexts to become aware of unsustainable daily actions.

Moreover, I state that environmental ethics are not often mentioned in the debate about influencing human action for climate change mitigation; even though morality is for the majority of us, a behaviour regulator that can motivate us to take the right actions to fulfil the reason, there is not a lot of interest to bring attention the interdependent relationship between human beings and the environment. Thus, many pro-environmental projects are implemented without having the discussion about what people's duties and responsibilities towards the environment are.

If people do not understand and assume the change they need to make, they will not acquire environmental attitudes to motivate them to act pro-environmentally in the long term. They will continue to act unsustably whenever they are not guided by different governmental strategies or do not receive any financial incentive to take a pro-environmental action.

As a consequence, I propose a methodological innovation that explores an alternative form of motivation for pro-environmental behaviour: moral motivation. I am interested to test the capacity of morality to be skill knowledge. If we think of morality as a skill that can be trained and learnt, then we will have a starting framework for moral education. To that end I will develop the notion of a 'shared morality', or a form of considered 'common sense', which has the potential to inform and motivate individuals morally, irrespective of any particular normative theory they happen to have and, hence, to maximise the impact needed for environmental protection.

Correspondingly, by cultivating a sense of moral responsibility towards nature we might find an efficient way to address two current problems that concern environmental protection. On one hand, a sense of moral responsibility towards nature can help people calculate
the individual costs and impacts of personal actions on
our shared environmental context and on the other hand,
it will provide us with constructive feedback in order to
understand the benefits of taking pro-environmental
action in the long term.

At present, it seems easier to convince people to
act pro-environmentally by working with their short
term motivations for action than helping them adopt
sustainable habits. As a result, the current UK governmental approaches to influencing pro-environmental behaviour have a negative impact on people's behaviour and might perhaps weaken their sense of moral responsibility towards nature, in the context of environmental degradation.

In conclusion, I hope that the 'shared morality' initiative in applied moral theory can become an ideational trend in environmental governance and policymaking that will offer activists and decision-makers alike grounds for an alternative approach to meeting the challenge of climate change mitigation and encouraging pro-environmental behaviour.

P-1123-10

Ciclania: Videogame for generating sustai-
nable educational communities

B. Mauricio (1) ; J. Roa, (1) ; M. Mellado (1)

(1) Universidad Santo Tomás, Santiago, Chile

The challenges facing mankind today associated with the phenomenon global change put us in a scenario of crossroads, which will determine the conditions of our future together.

The increase in atmospheric temperature; biodiversity loss; changes in land use; problems of freshwater availability, ocean acidification; inequality and poverty are some of the effects of the phenomenon, widely studied by the scientific community and those who have sounded the alarm. (IPCC, 2013; Peters, 2011).

But this warning is not enough to change the countries
and citizens behavior. During the last forty years we've
learned that global change will not be solved solely
by technological developments, but together with the
creation of new citizens with transformed community
living arrangements.

Thus, civic education on these matters becomes relevant in the transformation of sensitized responsible citizens. To achieve this transformation, the approach proposed by this work consists in civic education driven by the scientific education.

With this premise we develop Ciclania, a free game, build urban – and in accordance with the science program for primary schools of the Ministry of Education of Chile. Ciclania includes 5 environments: beach, field, forest, industrial city, and Egopolis, the city of consumption. The player must explore the environment solving problems associated with global change. In addition to the game, we developed an interactive guide for teachers, which browses the game environments(without the need of playing the game) and experimental activities for the classroom, that will give teachers the knowledge and space to deepen the key concepts of global change.

The evaluation results, show that the use of Ciclania
promotes learning and motivation in science through play
and fun, but mainly promotes in children reasons why we
need as a community a more harmonious relationship with
the environment in order to battle the global change.

P-1123-11

Engaging Children for a Sustainable Earth:
The Case with Global Climate Ambassa-
dors

U. Muhammad (1)

(1) Centre for Renewable Energy and Action on Climate Change, Gusau, Zamfara, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Introduction

The paper tends to look at the role of engaging children to

make a difference in their communities especially taking
actions that are climate friendly at local level and paper
further examines how Global Climate Ambassadors GCA
program brought together 17 organizations and 131
children from 7 countries to participate in the program
in developing best practices on involving children and
youth for a sustainable future thus; the paper also looks
at how their participation in the 40th Planetary Session of
the IPCC change the entire landscape of climate change
negotiations and awareness campaign among children.

Objectives

Is to empirically research on whether there is any impact of engaging children as change agents and also if the yardstick measure of the outcome of their engagement is applied, look at the significance of children's engagement in climate change negotiations and the impact it has for global sustainability. To understand if cross boundary programs of children can have a positive impact on sustainable development.

Methods

The research uses both primary and secondary data; relevant research works from scholars was looked at and give more emphasis on the report of the program. Thus; 7 children were interviewed to know the extent of their understanding in the program and how positively it has impacted their lives, if the connection and networking at their level has anything to improve their capacity at the intercontinental connections. The work adopts analytical and descriptive method as well.

Results

The analysis of the work has shown significant
understanding of sustainable development and how
climate change affect everyone on earth, among the 7
children interviewed 6 strongly agreed that the program
has impacted positively in their understanding of what
climate change is all about, and they all strongly agree
connecting them with their peers out their countries will
increase their chances of sharing ideas and learning from
each other.

P-1123-12

An Open-Source Climate Change Curri-
culum for University Education Based on
IPCC Synthesis Science

K. Nicholas (1) ; P. Ambrosos (2) ; N. Nasir (2) ; E. Redford, (2) ; C. Tsoi (2) ; M.S. Weschke (2)

(1) Lund University, Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden; (2) Lund University , International master's programme in environmental studies and sustainability science, Lund, Sweden

In order to meaningfully participate in a civic society increasingly shaped by climate change, a climate-literate citizen should be able to read and understand the summaries of the articles by the people which represent the current state of the art in the scientific understanding of climate change. However, although outreach and dissemination efforts have been increasing, to date we are not aware of any efforts to link the IPCC reports with curriculum design in higher education. Developing such links is essential to ensure that students are equipped with the skills and knowledge they will need. It can also improve teaching experiences through increased efficiency in course preparation, linking teaching and research, and in sharing best teaching practices with participating colleagues.

Here we develop a framework for teaching a
comprehensive university course on climate change that is
aligned with IPCC synthesis findings, assess how many of
its core elements are addressed by courses offered at top
international universities, are completely suggested teaching
resources to fully equip students to understand climate
change.

To develop the framework, we identified six core topics derived from scientific literature and syntheses, as well as research on effective climate communication. The six core topics were given the short labels: (1) its climate, (2) it's warming, (3) it's us, (4) We're sure, (5) it's bad, and (6) We can fix it. The six core topics were then broken down into two to four major components (e.g., "Observed changes"
under ("It's warming"), each of which consists of one or more concrete elements (e.g., "Atmospheric warming"). To finalize the components and elements, two independent researchers used qualitative analysis software to code the entire text and graphics of the 2014 IPCC Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers to ensure that all aspects of the essential messages of the IPCC findings were represented in our framework.

Based on analysis of syllabi available online or provided by course instructors from seventy university courses, we found that the majority (56%) covered only one of the six core topics; only one course (at Harvard University) covered all six topics. Within the core topics, the most commonly taught (by 60% of courses) was "It's climate," focusing on the functioning of the natural climate system. Less than 20% included climate change impacts ("It's bad"), and less than a third focused on climate change policy and solutions ("We can fix it.").

We contacted the instructors at the ten universities who taught four, five, or six of the core topics and requested their contribution of teaching and assessment materials, which we used along with other materials we identified to develop a comprehensive curriculum. The curriculum is based on the principles of constructive alignment, and includes a syllabus,lectures, labs, problem sets, and suggested learning and assessment activities. The curriculum will be freely available online as a teaching resource.

We have shown that there is a need for a comprehensive, research-based climate change course in higher education, which at present is largely unmet. Such courses are essential to promote deep student learning using thoughtfully designed teaching and assessment activities to promote intended learning outcomes, as well as the real-world illustration of the method of scientific inquiry applied to socially relevant problems. Ultimately, using scientific syntheses as the basis for university curricula would help close the gap between research and classroom learning, promote increased scientific understanding, and help ensure that the resources devoted to scientific synthesis efforts are translated to broader benefits for society.

P-1123-13

Socio-Scientific Teaching and Learning: Climate Change Concepts and Issues

M. Pagunsan (1); J. Omay (2); S. Delgado-Conafesor (3)

(1) UNESCO Jakarta Office, Education Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia; (2) Sibalem National High School, Sibalem, Antique, Philippines; (3) University of Antique , Sibalem, Antique, Philippines

One of the challenges the teacher faces in introducing contemporary scientific developments into science lessons are the lack of available teaching and learning materials. Materials that are engaging enough that inspires, encourages and develops meaningful learning among students. This paper will present the collaborative project on the development of a Teachers' Guide Book in Integrating Climate Change Issues in Southeast Asian Schools. Specifically it will present the experiences, best practices and lessons learned in developing a science lesson exemplar through the partnership of teacher trainers and secondary school teachers in Malaysia. The developed science lesson exemplar has undergone students' try-out in Malaysian secondary school. Then, the implementation of the said science lesson exemplar in Philippines secondary school will be highlighted. This paper will conclude with lessons learned in developing science lesson exemplars that integrates climate change concepts and issues. It also present its usability, applicability and replicability implications as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gears towards the realization of ASEAN Community later this year.

P-1123-14

Climate Adventure: a strategy game to
keep the greenhouse effect in balance

M. Prado (1) ; C. Josiel (1) ; J. Sousa, (1)

(1) Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

This abstract describes the design and the development of Climate Adventure: A Game of Balance and Strategy®, a pedagogical tool created by a team of doctoral students in the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policy program offered by the University of Lisbon. Recognizing that most people find the subject of climate change to be abstract and distant from their daily lives (according to literature findings), the team focused its efforts on answering the question: how can we make tangible the subject of climate change in an ethical way? The first step of the project was to identify a tool that could help people gain awareness. For that purpose, the team used creativity techniques. Our chosen vehicle was a game, one that would be fun to play, use movements, provide information, and operate with a minimum of strategy. These criteria were the basis for the next step: design the model and build the narrative of the game. The model is a card game played between teams with questions and answers, fulfilling steps to get an end. The narrative is based on two arguments: scientific and ethical. The scientific argument considers the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect, and concentrations of greenhouse gases. The ethical argument considers human rights, distributive justice, and climate ethics. The development of the Climate Adventure® game required three more steps. The second step was to test the game using the technique of improvement by peers from the Cambridge methodology. We invited doctoral colleagues from the game, and three of them acted as direct observers with the responsibility of responding to a set of questions. The authors incorporated the direct observers' responses into the model and narrative of the game. The third step was to identify competing games in the marketplace and to analyze the products and how they were marketed. Our research identified games for children and adults, most of them strongly focused on cognitive and competition. Our fourth step was to conduct an online survey among students of two classes at the doctoral program: the class that had participated in the game testing and another class that was completely unfamiliar with the game. The objective of the survey was to gauge people's perception of the game's attractiveness, color, name, and potential for learning and distribution. The authors have already registered the game at the Portugal government office Inspeção-Geral das Actividades Culturais - IGAC (General Inspection of Cultural Activities), which gives them a copyright on the game. Climate Adventure® is aimed at the general public (age 14 and up), and it is a parlor game whose aim is to keep the carbon dioxide (CO₂) in balance in the atmosphere so that weather conditions continue to favor life on Earth as we know it today. The two teams each begin the Adventure with an equal amount of CO₂ molecules; as they interact, they should finish the game with the same amount they had at the beginning of the game. A difference of +1 or -1. Throughout the game, the teams move from one space to the next by answering questions as they walk from the entrance to the exit gate of the atmosphere. During the game, the teams are able to use sources and sinks of carbon to keep their players in balance but they cannot exchange carbon with each other. The team that crosses the exit gate with their CO₂ in balance wins the game. The plan for the future is to promote Climate Adventure® as a capacity-building tool for employees at companies that have adopted social responsibility policies, and for public officials at municipalities that have adopted and are implementing climate-change adaptation/mitigation policies. It is the authors' conviction that when the general public can experience climate change as a tangible threat, they will be more active in seeking solutions to the social, political, and economic problems created when the earth's average surface temperature increases by +2°C or +4°C over the current 15°C. Therefore, the goal of Climate Adventure® is to give climate change tangibility. The references used: AR 5 WG I, II, and III and Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014; books and articles by the Portuguese physicist and professor Filippe D. Santos; and concepts and fundamentals of communication theory and learning theory.

P-1123-15

The impact of the European Key Competences for Lifelong Learning on Sustainable Development

B. Sanchez-Royo (1)

(1) University of Brighton, Cultural Informatics Research Group, Brighton, United Kingdom

There is international consensus about the importance