agroforestry; facilitating increased access to traditional foods, particularly in Indigenous communities; developing appropriate alternative markets for ecological products; and, implementing participatory governance systems, for example for organic certification.

By analyzing and developing connectivity amongst projects such as these, our transdisciplinary network of years and years of data has increased the scope of their transformative potential. Specifically, our objectives are to: 1) Use a social economy of food as a lever to explore socially just, economically robust, and ecologically regenerative sustainable opportunities for communities in the Global South that would increase their ability to address the interrelated challenges of climate change, poverty, and food insecurity; 2) Build direct person-to-person (or community-to-community) knowledge flows that enable citizens in the Global North to better understand the impacts of climate change, poverty and food insecurity in communities of the Global South, and also build solidarity amongst communities in the Global South that are confronting these challenges; 3) Create a networked learning community to facilitate the exchange of knowledge regarding concrete examples of innovative, community-scale solutions to the problems of climate change, poverty and food insecurity; and 4) Use this knowledge to extend knowledge sharing to other communities. This learning community would highlight the co-creation of knowledge between South and North and between academic and community partners, and be facilitated in a way that empowers traditionally marginalized communities. It would also enhance the capacity of researchers/scientists - particularly emerging scholars - to analyze household and community-level adaptation strategies, and inform climate-smart policies.

The proposed paper will highlight some of the advances that have been made to date by FEAST network partners working at the regional scale to address climate change, poverty, and food insecurity, particularly for marginalized populations including women, youth, Indigenous communities, and smallholder farmers. It will also outline how the development of a robust transdisciplinary knowledge network creates opportunities to increase the transformative potential of existing regional work.

## O-4417-04

### Strengthening collaboration for transformation to sustainability in research and education at universities

P. Adam (1); H. Kromp-Kolb (1); T. Lindenthal (1)

(1) Centre for Global Change & Sustainability, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

To be able to respond to grand social challenges such as climate change, it is necessary for universities and other research organisations to recognise and act upon their responsibility as both educators and generators of knowledge. An effective contribution of science to social transformation requires an adaptation of teaching and research activities and intensified collaboration and networking. Equally important is that science opens up to civil society and improves interactions with decision makers. Inter- and trans-disciplinary approaches can help expedite the necessary dialog on all levels. "Responsible Science" is the catch word used to address these changes - but what needs to be done? What are best practice examples from different academic cultures? How can universities and other research institutions cooperate to speed up the necessary change?

Increasingly science is becoming aware of and acting upon this responsibility. In Austria e.g. over 240 scientists have collaborated to jointly create the first Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC) report, mimicking in form, structure and process the assessment reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The leading climate research institutions have founded the Climate Change Centre Austria (CCCA), which coordinates activities of and facilitates exchange between the climate science community. Recently a number of major universities created the Alliance of Sustainable Universities in Austria that is working on implementing the necessary transformation in teaching, research, on-campus and in societal outreach and exchange activities. In 2014, this alliance e.g. completed a research project on climate friendly research and managed to implement sustainability

strategies on the regulatory level as part of mandatory performance agreements with the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research.

In this contribution we will discuss experiences, particularly on barriers and leverage points and potentially transferable "catalysing mechanisms" for "science and research in transition".

Although these activities have many positive effects, a fundamental issue still persists: Currently the academic system is geared towards achievements within the scientific community such as e.g. SCI publications, disciplinary oriented research and education, scientific oriented third-party funding, etc. However, responsibility toward society means dealing with the challenges society faces rather than investigating issues which promise to be lucrative either financially or in terms of scientific standing. Sustainability science and education with its inter and trans-disciplinary research, exchange and dissemination of knowledge and engagement in collaboration and networking activities of the kinds mentioned above are often not rewarded and hence are difficult to prioritise in a publish-or-perish system.

Universities and the scientific system at large can play and must play a leading and visionary role toward the solution of the climate crisis and other grand societal challenges. However this will mean considerable changes to the current academic system, supplementing systems of evaluation and rewards in order to enable science to answer the pressing questions of our times and engage in the type of education, collaboration, networking and exchange, which is so crucial if we are to achieve the necessary transformation to a post-carbon, sustainable society.

## O-4417-05

### Networked co-design for trans-national sustainability-oriented innovation systems

A. Ely (1)

(1) STEPS Centre, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex, United Kingdom

This paper presents initial findings from a co-design process involving 'transformation platforms' in six different high, middle and low-income countries as part of the 'Constructing Pathways to Sustainability' network. In each case, design workshops were hosted in order to bring stakeholders together around challenges that linked to climate change, including sustainable cities, sustainable agricultural and food systems and low carbon energy. In all cases the host institution convened a mix of academic scientists and knowledge partners in order to analyse the locally-defined problem and explore alternative pathways serving environmental sustainability and social justice objectives.

The paper will focus in particular on the examples from China and Africa, which primarily address the challenge of low carbon transitions that serve the needs of the poor. In each case, local innovations were identified that related to solar photovoltaic technologies, and participants discussed the problem of enabling access among poorer communities. Whilst innovation challenges in China are clearly succeeding in the competitive production of low-cost PV panels, primarily for export, the uptake of PV in poor rural areas remains relatively slow. Participants identified the need to move away from technology-focused approaches to expanding energy access towards bottom up approaches that also integrate concerns embodied in a new central government focus on poverty reduction, seen for example in the State Council's new policies on rural participation.

In the African case, participants discussed the utility of solar home systems (SHSs) and biomass in providing energy services to off-grid communities. Of particular interest to this paper is the development of novel payment mechanisms for solar energy, utilising mobile phone systems, that have been pioneered in Kenya. Interestingly, these are being recombined with solar PV hardware imported from China to produce a (socio-technical) system with potential to enable low carbon transitions that serve the needs of the poor.

The networked approach to co-design enabled the pairing of the China and Africa cases, offering opportunities to explore linkages and mutual learning across continents
that can – together – contribute to transnational (low carbon) sustainability-oriented innovation systems. The paper ends with a proposal to take forward these initial findings through continued work at the levels of the local transformation platforms and across the international transformative knowledge network.

### O-0441-06

# Collaborative political ecology: Mapping movements to leave oil in the soil with and for Environmental Justice Organizations

## L. Temper (1)

(1) Institute of Environmental Sciences and Technology (ICTA)- Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

This paper presents the results of the collaborative work on climate justice undertaken in the EJOLT (Environmental Justice Organizations Liabilities and Trade) EU fp7 project through the presentation and analysis of over 300 cases of conflicts over fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure as documented in the Atlas of Environmental Justice (www.ejatlas.org).

The Global Atlas of Environmental Justice (www.ejatlas.org) is a collaborative project that draws on activist knowledge to document social conflict over the environment. Ecological conflicts are defined as: "mobilizations by local communities, social movements and EJOS against particular economic activities (or state policies), in which concerns about current or future negative environmental impacts are an important part of the grievances, along with social, psychological and political impacts."

The Global Atlas of Environmental Justice currently documents over 1400 such ecological conflicts displayed on an online interactive map. Each conflict contains around 100 fields including activity type and commodity, actors, quantitative data, degree of violence, forms of action, outcomes and perception of success, among others. Over 250,000 users have opened over 1 million pages of the atlas in the last year since it has been public.

The atlas one hand serves to document, making visible, and support the struggle for environmental justice (EJ), with the ultimate goal of empowering movements and activists, and increasing the recognition and legitimacy of research done by environmental justice organizations. It also serves as an important activist resource for information sharing and networking.

Scientifically it contributes to a form of 'statistical political ecology', and the development of a system whereby a large number of environmental conflicts can be described, analyzed, and compared across geographies and thematic issues and across spatial and temporal scales. The global nature of the atlas enhances the study of transnational spatial patterns of environmental and economic risks and impacts and their connections through commodity and financial flows that cannot be gained except at broader geographic and political scales.

The EJatlas is part of a new wave of initiatives that use geo-spatial information and new spatial media to advance, legitimate and secure political claims (Elwood and Leszczynski 2012). Through these "knowledge politics" individuals and institutions leverage digital spatial data and spatial technologies in negotiating social, political, and economic processes. The process of co-production of knowledge in producing the EJatlas is thus a contribution to transcending the expert/amateur or expert/grassroots activist dichotomy, while creating a new spatial knowledge politics and contributing to a collaborative political ecology.

After an explanation of the methodology of the EJatlas process the paper will present results from a comparative survey of the 300+ cases related to climate justice and fossil fuel extraction in the EJatlas with an emphasis on the following lines of enquiry: 1) The increasingly interlinked nature of place-based mobilizations over fossil fuel extraction and their articulation with global climate activist movements 2) The growth in conflicts over new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and how citizen science is created and knowledge diffused and transmitted between locations 3) the use of increasingly contentious and disruptive forms of resistance to fossil fuel expansion such as blockades in some regions 3) Transformative

cases in the atlas that demonstrate how communities resisting fossil fuel extraction are presenting innovative governance mechanisms to leave oil in the soil and move towards energy sovereignty and post-extractionism.

### O-0441-07

# The Role of Young Scientists in Advancing Knowledge and Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate

## J. Baum (1)

(1) University of Victoria, Biology, Victoria, BC, Canada

Young scientists are passionate about addressing the climate challenge, and this community is increasingly being recognized for its leadership and contributions to international climate science and policy efforts. Processes such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. National Climate Assessment are making explicit efforts to include early-career scientists. Young scientists play critical roles in advancing the understanding of climate change, developing mitigation and adaptation solutions, and informing societal decisions that enhance sustainability in the face of climate change. Doing so often requires early-career researchers to work across traditional disciplinary boundaries throughout the process of discovery. In addition, many young scientists regularly engage with the public and with decision makers, such as resource managers, local officials, urban planners, and stakeholders, through their work. For such emerging leaders, metrics of professional success should therefore reflect not only new contributions to knowledge but also the tangible benefits that those insights bring to society. Despite progress in meaningfully integrating young scientists as leaders in the climate-science community, institutional research and other research engagement both with the scientific community, and with stakeholders. This talk will discuss opportunities and challenges facing young scientists working on transdisciplinary projects to inform sustainability solutions in a changing climate. In particular, organizations such as the Global Young Academy provide critical opportunities for mobilizing and empowering early-career scientists to become the leaders of tomorrow's climate science and policy efforts.

### 4417 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-0441-01

# Three perspectives on global energy transitions and the promise of inter-disciplinary dialogue

## A. Cherp (1)

(1) Central European University, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Budapest, Hungary

Human's use of energy in the 21st century could result in the collapse of the global climate, persistent poverty, and international conflicts over access to increasingly scarce resources. Alternative energy scenarios portray climate stabilization, universal access to modern energy, and strong global cooperation. Yet our knowledge of what political forces could trigger sustainable global energy pathways is still scarce and fragmented. Three distinct scientific disciplines strive to explain the driving forces behind the evolution of energy systems. Energy-economy models base their explanations on equilibrium between growing energy demand and supply constrained by resource scarcity and cost-optimization by rational actors. Technology studies analyze emergence and diffusion of energy technologies across socio-technical systems stressing innovation, performance and non-linearity. Political economy focuses on interests, ideas and institutions that impede or promote certain types of energy systems. Due to their diverse historic origins and different disciplinary roots, these scientific fields rarely communicate or cooperate. This paper outlines a transdisciplinary research agenda involving the three perspectives on energy transitions. It subsequently uses several examples from developing, developed and emerging countries to illustrate how a meaningful scientific dialogue between these fields could help to understand and guide sustainable energy transformations.
# “Post-normal research networks?: Rethinking the production of interdisciplinary and transsectoral knowledge”

MF. Fossa Riglos (1); V. Hernandez (2)

(1) Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales/UNSAM-CONICET, Ciencias Sociales, San Martín, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (2) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Paris, France

This presentation aims to reflect about the epistemological implications of knowledge production in the frame of international collaborative research networks on climate and its social impacts. The way in which climate change knowledge is produced in the frame of international interdisciplinary networks and integrated into social actors' practices is a complex process where a numerous of factors intervene: knowledge production conditions, sociopolitical, environmental and socio-structural settings (macroeconomics, social structure, etc.), among others. Are effective the integration of scientific knowledge by social actors and politicians requires not only methodological tools with the ability to integrate these factors within a dynamic of knowledge co-production, but also an analysis of the social field concerned in order to understand in which historic- political thread is this trying to get involved. This analysis is not related to a techno-methodologic matter but it summons to a political economy of knowledge. The challenges this epistemological perspective opens express both in the social as the scientific field and on the design of public policies. Basing in our own experience as social sciences researchers in two different climate research networks of this kind, our objective is not to present a social network analysis but to analyze the dynamics of this research networks as an apparatus (Foucault, 1977), whose ambition is to produce a "governance" response to climate change problem. These apparatuses are generally organized in a three-part logic: pluridisciplinary (diverse interdisciplinary interactions inside network's working groups), multilocation (interaction among diverse academic institutions and countries) and transsectoriality (interaction between researchers and society actors).

This work is organized in five sections. In the first one, we introduce and describe our networks of interests, as well as the ethnographic approach we have applied to study this research apparatus. In second section, we present a brief description of the historic construction and management dynamics of scientific production on the extensive areas of post-normal concern, and we analyze the structure and logics of these networking research apparatus. Then, interdisciplinary dynamics is analyzed in the third section, showing how different disciplinary approaches, theoretical frameworks and concepts are engaged with the aim of legitimizing this network apparatus. Thirdly, in the fourth section, we analyze the way we analyze transsectorial collaboration, describing its dynamics the way stakeholders, policy makers and local communities are conceived by researchers, and discuss the possibilities of climate knowledge appropriation. Finally, we present our conclusions reflecting on the epistemological implications of these apparatus considering the role of global political-scientific agenda in the construction of climate change problematic, the hegemony of the techno scientific logic, the relevance of political dimension in the creation of alternative responses facing the challenges and interests of our globalized world.

# Artistic: An Art and Science Integration Project to Enquire into Community Level Adaptation to Climate Change

JP. Vanderlinden (1); J. Baztan, (1)

(1) University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Observatory of versailles-saint-quentin-en-yvelines/cear, Gucancourt, France

The purpose of this paper is to present the Belmon Box «Adaptation Research a Transdisciplinary community and policy centered approach» (ARTistic) project. ARTistic's goal is to apply innovative standardized transdisciplinary art and science integrative approaches to foster robust, socially, culturally and scientifically, community centred adaptation to climate change. The approach used in the project is based on the strong understanding that adaptation is: (a) still «a concept of uncertain form»; (b) a

concept dealing with uncertainty; (c) a concept that calls for an analysis that goes beyond the traditional disciplinary organization of science, and; (d) an unconventional process in the realm of science and policy integration.

The project is centered on case studies in France, Greenland, Russia, India, Canada, Alaska, and Senegal. In every site we jointly develop artwork while we analyze how natural science, essentially as science can be used in order to better understand the future, how society, adapt to current changes and how memories of past adaptations frames current and future processes.

Arfforms are mobilized in order to share scientific results with local communities and policy makers, this in a way that respects cultural specificities while empowering stakeholders. ARTistic translates these "real life experiments" into science and art and work that has the goal of increasing arts and science's performative functions in the universe of evidence-based policy making.

The scientific results and the culturally mediated productions will thereafter be used in order to co-construct, with NGOs and policy makers, policy briefs, i.e. robust and scientifically legitimate policy recommendations regarding coastal adaptation. This co-construction process will be in itself analysed with the goal of increasing arts and science's performative functions in the universe of evidence-based policy making.

The project involves scientists from natural sciences, the social sciences and the humanities, as well as artists from the performing arts (playwriters, film directors) as well as the visual arts (photographs, designers, sculptor) working in France, Senegal, India, Russia, Greenland, Alaska, and Canada.

# Science and art together

C. Villegas Ivich (1)

(1) ArNaMe International, Paris, France

For decades worldwide scientists rely considerable efforts to bring to the world and particularly to decision makers of the planet, all the knowledge that allow us to understand the causes and effects of climate change, its mediating and irreversible consequences on the environment and on the balance of the world. In other words, thanks to science, we have for a long time and especially today, sufficient dates to take necessary decisions and measures. Despite this, greenhouse gas emissions have risen, and on the contrary, nothing has been done to effectively fight against global warming. It seems that knowledge is not enough to raise awareness, create responsibility and encourage ethical behavior in front of the current climate crisis. Would it be because conscience, responsibility and ethics are not only forged with scientific or rational considerations? It is undoubtedly an urgent need to enrich and strengthen the contribution of science with other forms of perception and understanding of the world in order to go further in this thought. To understand and internalize what is at stake in environmental and climate issues, we should perhaps call upon our sensitivity and our emotional intelligence. This could probably help us to understand better what science tells us, because what we live and experience don't just have a rational explanation. This would bring us, among other things, to develop our empathy, carry us to change the way we see and understand our relationship to life, to ourselves and to someone other than Me. This Other than me is plural and singular, he surrounds us and expects from us another way to coexist and live on this planet. We must be able to pass to the other side of the mirror, to go beyond the immediacy of things, to really understand what is our place and responsibility in the community of the livings. Among the possibilities that are available in order to succeed in this passage, the better of them is probably art. Indeed, it could best go along with science to bring us further in the process of evolution of our awareness, our understanding of reality and way of being in the world. In the creative process of art, logos and sensitivity emerge together and the result offers to our senses stimulates our mind, sharpens our perception, our vision widens and expands our critical and analytical skills. In this paper we try to show, with ongoing experiments, how this collaboration between science and art can happen. How, while working together, they can create a new perception and a new understanding of environmental and climate issues and in the end, how this alliance and this merger can contribute to the development of awareness and willingness into order to act in responsible ways.
# 4418a - Information for decision-making - How to engage in future thinking or plan for the long term

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-4418a-01

#### Decision-relevant science for water security: An iterative process for targeting and evaluating impacts of watershed investments

AL Vogl (1); J. Goldstein (2); R. Mcdonald (3); P. Hamel (4) ; M. Ruckelshaus (5)

(1) The Natural Capital Project, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA, United States of America;

(2) The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America; (3) The Nature Conservancy, Washington, D.C., United States of America; (4) The Natural Capital Project, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA, United States of America; (5) The Natural Capital Project, Stanford woods institute for the environment, Stanford, United States of America

Nature-based solutions are increasingly recognized as viable strategies to address major challenges for human development in areas such as water security, disaster risk mitigation, infrastructure development, and sustainable agriculture. Such strategies have the potential to provide adaptive solutions to changing climate conditions by encouraging ecosystem-based adaptive management and community participation. In the realm of water security, protecting and restoring nature to regulate the quantity and quality of water flows is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective and complementary strategy to engineered approaches. Broadly termed investments in Watershed Services (IWS), these projects typically invest in the conservation of source watersheds to secure clean water for downstream communities. Recent studies show the potential for IWS to provide a positive return-on-investment for water resource goals, to generate additional environmental and social co-benefits, and to be a strategy that can adapt, potentially more so than engineered solutions, as climate conditions change. In 2013, there were an estimated 345 active IWS programs globally and an annual investment totaling $12.3 billion (www.forest-trends.org/dir/sowi_2014/). Yet, despite its exponential growth over the past two decades, IWS remains a relatively small-scale, often one-off strategy in particular locations, which contrasts with the widespread use of engineered solutions.

We argue that a key barrier limiting the scope of IWS is that tools and guidance to bridge the science-to-practice gap are less well developed - tools to help practitioners understand if, where, and how well IWS will work. A recent plethora of reports and decision support tools highlight for cities, regional authorities, and corporate actors the risks that they face due to dependence on water resources (e.g., Ecolab and Trucost's Water Risk Monetizer and WWF's Water Risk Filter). However these tools largely focus on the "risk" component of the water security equation. To effectively maintain IWS, decision makers need science that addresses the "opportunity" component of the equation - the degree to which improved watershed management activities can mitigate risk. Combining risk and opportunity information enables decision makers to quantify the scope for IWS and to identify actionable solutions that are specific to the decision context. Such decision support would allow policymakers to target natural capital investments towards programs (at global/ regional scales) or projects (at local scales) that promote IWS where it has the highest potential to be a cost-effective intervention. We will showcase several tools and methods developed by The Natural Capital Project - in collaboration with various NGO, academic and policy partners - in support of IWS programs in 7 countries across Latin America, India and Kenya. Our experiences illustrate the importance of co-producing ecosystem services information as part of an iterative research-application process, for 1) targeting investments based on ecosystem services outcomes, 2) addressing uncertainties around drivers of change (including climate change), and 3) monitoring and impact evaluation. Delivering more resource-efficient and transferable science will allow

decision-makers to evaluate where IWS is, and critically is not, likely to be an effective and robust institutional mechanism to achieve water security goals in the face of climate change.

### K-4418a-02

#### School Earth Care Centre: A Communication and Decision Support System for Community Level Weather, Climate, and Environmental Services

PK. Sengupta (1)

(1) Jadavpur Centre for Study of Earth Science, Hydrology, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Development of a weather, climate and environment service system requires scientific and technological development including development of understanding and knowledge regarding enhanced observational needs. To create an "intelligent and wise" rural community secondary schools can do a lot. Schools have the scope for fostering scientific, human and technological resources required for making people aware and resilient to threats and impacts of climate change through appropriate science and technology communication.

School Earth Care Centres (ECC) catalyzed by the Natural Resource Data Management System (NRDMS) of Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India is an approach to establish a bridge between the community and educational institutes for catering community level climate and weather services through generating water & weather related data, preparing maps and sharing it with the stake holders.

In 2007-12 ECC have been established in 75 schools of West Bengal, India representing each geoclimatic, socio economic and demographic situations. A state level NGO had been engaged to act as the central resource agency and a communication link between the expert agency and the rural institutions. The ECC schools have been provided with weather instruments, soil and water monitoring kit and a kit for map making. Necessary orientation, hands on training workshops were held in each ECC school involving stake holders from the teachers, students, farmers and the community. Development of methods for efficiently making use of weather and water databases and implementation of user-relevant approaches for evaluating the quality and benefits of products and services are considered to be the end product.

This paper discusses the model in terms of formation process, tasks and results that have been measured in terms of development of awareness, knowledge, motivation, sharing and participation. While analyzing the overall success indicators of the model it is observed that rural schools in backward and disaster prone areas showed a higher level of competency and motivation. It has also been observed that development of ownership of the data and making wise use of it resulted into a more resilient society in those areas.

This paper argues that the scientific effort is reliant on extensive sharing of capabilities and knowledge where educational institutions and other stakeholders can play as a key factor for comprehensive services system development. Such a framework is essential in developing countries, allowing weather and environmental data generated and provided by the local institutions to the service of the local community at the grass root level.

### O-4418a-01

#### Personal adaptation: discussions, decisions and planning

L. Coulter (1)

(1) Griffith University, Urban Research Program, Nathan, Queensland, Australia

Decisions that will be effective to manage the impacts
of climate change that are now unavoidable will need to account for ongoing instability in social, economic and environmental systems. Commonly examined barriers in accounting for progressive climate impacts include: disbelief in aspects of climate change processes; lack of understanding of the impacts; poor access to relevant and credible information; and a felt need for greater certainty. Professionals who exchange climate change knowledge in research, policy, and practice will have overcome many, if not most, of these barriers through training and experience. Barriers that affect even these professionals are personal reactions to envisioning the future such as: emotive responses; lack of facility in future thinking; and subjective assessments of perceived risks and capacity. This paper draws on interviews that inquire into personal adaptation discussions and planning by Canadians and Australians. Participants have professional expertise and regular high-level communications regarding climate change with colleagues and the public. The interviews and this paper focus on a different sphere: discussions by these same professionals with family and friends. Key improvements in interpersonal discussions of climate change adaptation decisions and planning identified in the research include the need to: connect concern for mitigation of climate change to adaptation to climate impacts; think beyond unpleasant possibilities and envision future life affected by climate change and foster skills for greater co-operation in education and planning. Even among this highly educated group there was difficulty in imagining changes in society in the climate of the future, especially among those who do not tend to engage in future thinking or plan for the long term. This has implications for our understanding of individual factors in climate adaptation decision processes that may affect the wider society over time. Further study with people from other nations, professions and culture groups would broaden understanding of personal factors in adaptation decision-making.

## O-4418a-02

### Synthesis centers: an essential tool in our complex, data-rich future

A. Specht (1) ; J. Baron (2) ; M. Winter (3) ; P. Bishop (4) ; J. Boyd (5) ; A. Campbell (6) ; F. Davis (7) ; D. Hawthorne (5) ; C. Jonsson (4) ; J. Kramer (5) ; T. Meagher (8) ; M. Palmer (5) ; C. Salomon (9) ; D. Steinaker (10) ; T. Vision (11)

(1) School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia; (2) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America; (3) DFG German Research Foundation, German centre for integrative biodiversity research, Leipzig, Germany; (4) National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America; (5) National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America; (6) Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles darwin university, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia; (7)

National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of california, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; (8) Environmental Omics Synthesis Centre, University of st andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom; (9) Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity, Fondation for research into biodiversity, Aix en Provence, France; (10) Canadian Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada; (11) University of North Carolina, Biology, Chapel Hill, United States of America

Climate change presents a challenge to traditional scientific practices of disciplinary focus and the well-established research pathway. Understanding and responding to global climate change requires the integration of an abundance of information over many disciplinary fields and from many different organisations, with the added urgency of needing rapid answers and applications. Synthesis centers provide a unique environment for harnessing knowledge and expertise to catalyse discovery through cross-disciplinary working collaborations. Supported scientific synthesis – the integration of disparate theories, methods, and data across disciplines, professional sectors, and scales – has been proved to provide general, robust scientific explanations and evidence-based solutions across the social, economic and scientific realms. We contend that providing a synthesis intervention is a necessary, even mandatory, requirement for humanity to properly address critical climate change challenges.

More than a dozen synthesis centers now exist across Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. These centers bring discipline-specific experts together for blocks of time to stimulate cross-sectoral creative thinking and insight. The synthesis center approach is a vital tool to achieve collective action and transformative solutions. It offers something rare: participation based on a collective interest to deliver outcomes, and distraction-free, supported time and space for groups to totally immerse themselves in a question. A common tool provided by all synthesis centers is the technological support to analyse and synthesise diverse and disparate datasets.

Each synthesis center reflects the imperatives uppermost in its own country, and has developed a unique approach and expertise relevant to its mandate. Some centers emphasise the earth sciences, some the application of mathematics to biology, some natural resource management, social science and science policy, some the dynamics of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, inter alia. Conservatively, the Centers together have been instrumental in bringing more than 25 singular disciplines together to work in unique cross-disciplinary combinations to address complex problems. The Centers have amassed large networks of people and provide the necessary infrastructure and skills to support them to collaborate. As a group, newly formed into the International Synthesis Consortium (www.synthesis-consortium.org), these centers provide a powerful tool across the whole range of disciplines and geographies needed for innovative solution-oriented thinking around the effects of climate change.

## 4418b - Information for decision making - Improve availability, access and use of information

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-4418b-01

#### Enhancing National Climate Services for Development in Africa

T. Dinku (1) ; M. Thomson (1) ; S. Connor (2)

(1) The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America; (2) Liverpool University, Geography, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Timely and appropriate climate information could play a critical role in national development planning: helping policy and decision makers to better manage climate risks and maximize opportunities. Available and decision-relevant climate information on the past climate, recent trends, likely future trajectories, anomalies and associated impacts is a prerequisite for climate-informed decision making. Unfortunately, climate information is not widely used in Africa to make development decisions. This is

mainly because useful information is often not available or, if it does exist, is inaccessible to those that need it most.

The ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) initiative is an ambitious effort to simultaneously improve the availability, access and use of climate information by working directly with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). It enables the NMHS to provide enhanced services by overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability and access – while at the same time fostering stakeholder engagement and use. The new spatially and temporally complete ENACTS data products allow for characterization of climate risks at a local scale, and potentially offer a low-cost, high impact opportunity to support applications and research. ENACTS has so far been implemented in Ethiopia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Rwanda and The Gambia at national levels, and at regional level for the CILSS countries (West African Sahel).
## Assessing species climate change vulnerability of species: best practice guidelines for conservation practitioners

W. Foden (1); R. Akcakaya, (2); D. Bickford, (3); S. Butchard, (4); J. Carr, (5); A. Hoffmann, (6); D. Hole, (7); B. Huntley, (8); T. Martin, (9); M. Pacifici, (10); B. Scheffers, (11); S. Williams, (11); B. Young, (12); K. Kovaks, (13); G. Midgley, (14); P. Pearce-Kelly, (15); R. Corlett (16); R. Pearson, (17); M. Stanley-Price, (18); J. Watson, (19).

(1) Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) Stony Brook University, New York, United States of America; (3) National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; (4) BirdLife International, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (5) IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (6) University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; (7) Conservation International, Washington DC, United States of America; (8) University of California, Durham, United Kingdom; (9) CSIRO, Brisbane, Australia; (10) University of Rome, Rome, Italy; (11) James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; (12) NatureServe, San Jose, Costa Rica; (13) Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso, Norway; (14) University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa; (15) Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom; (16) Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Center for integrative conservation, Menglun, Mengla, Yunnan, China; (17) University College London, London, United Kingdom; (18) Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; (19) Wildlife Conservation Society, Brisbane, Australia

For effective climate change adaptation planning, conservation practitioners must consider how their areas and species of concern are likely to be impacted by climate change. At present, however, they face a burgeoning scientific literature describing a wide variety of methods for assessing species' vulnerability to climate change, each with its own strengths and limitations. Based on inputs spanning the conservation science and practitioner communities, along with broad literature review, the IUCN Species Survival Commission's Climate Change Specialist Group has developed guidance for selecting and applying methods for assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.

The best practice guidelines outline commonly used approaches for assessing species' climate change vulnerability namely correlative (niche-based), mechanistic and trait-based approaches. They guide users to clearly define the scope and objectives of their assessments, and to identify and evaluate their available data, technical, expertise, time and financial resources. With the aid of a decision framework, users match their objectives with appropriate methods, and then identify those for which they have sufficient resources. The guidelines also include sections on selection and appropriate use of climate and biological data, selecting temporal and spatial scales, and working with uncertainty, knowledge gaps and indirect climate change impacts. They present overarching principles, ideas for communicating assessment results, and a broad range of case studies demonstrating how the guidelines can be applied.

This presentation provides an overview of the new best practice guidelines for assessing species' vulnerability to climate change and familiarizes attendees with steps for making sound and defensible decisions on method choice. Through the guidelines we hope to make climate change vulnerability assessment more accessible to the conservation practitioner community, thereby providing the best possible foundation for climate change adaptation planning.

## The experience of the Brazilian Climate and Geoscience Observatory

R. Gracie (1); C. Barcellos, (2); D. Silva, (3); H. Barros, (4); V. Matos, (5)

(1) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ; (2) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (3) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informações Científicas e Tecnológicas, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (4) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ; (5) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

Gathering and analyzing data on climate and health, as well as information on socioeconomic and environmental factors, is essential for planning actions to adapt to and mitigate climate change. In view of the complexity of the processes involved between global environmental and climate change and its effects on health, it is essential to bring together and analyze data in such a way as to provide society, government agencies and the media with information on these changes. To achieve this follow-up, a set of data on the dimensions of the climate, environment, population and health is required. The Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory project is making information on climate and health available through an internet page (www.climasaude.icitc.fiocruz.br) where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. This technology is innovative in that it allows users to make consultations that simultaneously use distributed data, i.e., generated and maintained by different institutions. The Information Technology and the information content were agreed between the participating institutions, researchers and representatives of government and civil society in workshops during which a consensual platform was agreed among data producers and data users. An initial assessment of the possible impacts of climate changes on health was made by a group of public health researchers, resulting on a list of climate-sensitive species, vector-borne diseases, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, water-borne diseases and a variety of health problems resulting from prolonged drought or floods, such as hunger and infant mortality, were selected to be monitored by the Observatory. The debate on climate change drivers, its impact on public health and adaptation actions needs to be a democratic process that allows participation by different social actors, with guidance towards motivating present-day changes with short, medium and long-term repercussions. In the Observatory project, participation is proposed as a path leading to integration between citizens, researchers and public health administrators so as to enable manifestations towards and interactions with other individuals within the community, develop reflective discussions and propose new ways of comprehending the process of climate change. Citizens, even if without links to an institution, can use the Observatory website to obtain information on extreme climatic events and new data giving warnings about the population's health conditions, by means of the "Live Database". The intention with this database is to allow insertion and publication of georeferenced information in the formats of text, images or external links. In addition, comments on news items or research conducted under coordination from the Observatory are encouraged. The Observatory's various workshops held in different regions of the country have included participation from organizations within local and national civil society. Furthermore, the project has acted as a means of assembling researchers interested in the debate on the effects of climate change on health. Recent occurrences of extreme events, such as the torrential rainfall on the coastal mountain range of the state of Rio de Janeiro, the fluctuations in river levels in the Amazon region and the intensification of vegetation burning in the arc of deforestation, have raised awareness among researchers and citizens regarding the need for preventive action to reduce the impact of climate-related natural disasters. On the other hand, the long-term and indirect effects of climate change on health, such as expansion of the incidence of vector-borne diseases, remain little studied by researchers. This makes it difficult to bring citizens into the debate on the long-term effects of climate change and the possible measures to adapt to these changes. These results can be studied under development at the sentinel sites have shown how climatic factors influence the transmission of water-borne diseases in Manaus; how atmospheric pollution associated with vegetation burning influences respiratory diseases in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso (Carmo, 2010); and how rainfall and temperatures affect vector-borne diseases like dengue (Lowe, 2012). These studies may promote of debate on the effects of climate change on health, and on the role of the healthcare services in the Brazilian National Health System, in reducing these impacts.
# The Global Island Database as a strategic asset for island biodiversity issues

C. Depraete (1); A. Dahl (2) ; J. Hutton (3)

(1) IRD, UMR ESPACE/DEV, Montpellier, France; (2) International Environment Forum, Geneva, Switzerland; (3) World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom

The Global Island Database (GID) targets the five themes important for islands, as identified by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD/UNEP), namely biodiversity, climate change, invasive species, pollution and sustainability. It aims to provide a geographical and environmental strategic tool to define priority in island biodiversity issues, including assessment and protection, at a global scale. As such, it does not replace regional, national or local GIS databases but it comes in synergy with them in a macrobiological perspective. GID aims to be a GIS networking platform for international collaboration, noticeably for the Global Islands Partnership (GLISPA).

Some pioneering works were initiated in the 90ies in the scope of providing global information on islands before the GID became available [1,2]. The initiative of making available an online version of GID was supported by GLISPA, the UNEP/WCMC and the Italian Government during the CBD CoP9 2008 in Bonn. The first version of the Global Island Database (GID) was officially announced at the UN Commission on Sustainable Development SIDS Special Day of celebrations on 10 May 2010 in New York. The further versions were updated at the initiative of the WCMC and includes specific tools for interactive functionalities to users, as for instance the GID validation tools [3]. It allows edition and validation of spatial and attribute information for any islands including those not referenced in GID. It is an example of on-line participative science whose purpose is to improve and update the spatial accuracy and associated information relating to islands or islets whatever the size.

The GID present version takes account of more than 180,000 islands including all the 116,103 islands greater than 0.06 km² from New-Guinea (783,408 km²) down to the islet of Gemini close to the shore of Elba (0.06 km²). Each island received a specific international island coding (IIC) and refers to attributes on geographical names, location, planimetry, human occupations, climatology, and topography (Table 1).

This GIS asset is not only allows the visualisation of data relevant for islands but also provides added value through contextual information, data analyses and potential biodiversity indicators for the various stakeholders requiring homogenous information for comparison purposes and prioritizing funding and actions. It is one of the tools which is urgently required to get over the present «island data gap» facing SIDS and countries with islands, as stated by macro ecologists. «We found that environmental characteristics were harder to determine for islands because they are not well represented in most global environmental data sets» [4]. It is also worth noting that the UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, Achim Steiner said: "High quality databases are crucial for addressing both the threats to biodiversity and economically important ecosystems. The importance of GID for island nations cannot be over stated, and is long overdue" [5].

## References:

[1] Dahl, Arthur Lyon. 1991: Island Directory. UNEP Regional Seas Directories and Bibliographies No. 35. UNEP, Nairobi (573 pp.). Cf. Also the website http://islands.unep.ch/isldir.htm

[2] Christian Depraete, 1991: Le phénomène insulaire à l'échelle du globe: tailles, hiérarchies et formes des îles océaniens. L'Espace Géographique, 1990-1991, No. 2, pp. 126-134.

[3] cf. the Global Island Database Validation Tool on https://vimeo.com/68301630

[4] Holger Kreft, Walter Jetz, Jens Mutke, Gerold Kier and Wilhelm Barthlott, 2008: "Global diversity of island floras from a macroecological perspective", Ecology Letters, (2008) 11: 116-127

[5] Strengthening Opportunities and Decision - Making for Sustainable Management of Islands. New York, 10 May 2010 http://www.unep.org/documents multilingual/default.asp?DocumentID=624&ArticleID=6559&I=en

# Quantifying the changing shape of local climate

D.A. Stainforth (1) ; S. Chapman, (2) ; N. Watkins, (3)

(1) London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; (2) Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of physics, Warwick, United Kingdom; (3) London School of Economics, Centre for the analysis of timeseries, London, United Kingdom

Climate is intrinsically a distribution and changing climate a change in distribution. Adaptation decisions and individual's perceptions of climate change are influenced by changes in thresholds in these distributions. Different decisions are impacted by different thresholds but in most cases the relevant distributions are those experienced at local scales. To understand the impact of climate change on practical decisions requires us to quantify how local climatic distributions are changing shape. Such information also substantially affects how climate change can be communicated and made relevant.

Changes in the shape of local climatic distributions are influenced by global and large scale (synoptic) changes in the earth system but are mediated by local / meso-scale circumstances. It is not clear to what extent it is possible given current technology and model limitations, to predict such changes multiple decades in the future. However, it is now beginning to be possible to identify changes in the shape of local climate from observational timeseries in some locations. Such changes provide crucial information which can help decision makers optimise decisions for the climate of today by putting them in the context of the fine detail (geographic and distributional) information from recent decades. It also provides a baseline of climate change against which future projections can be put into context.

Here we will present such analyses showing the changing shape of European climatic distributions in terms of changing probabilities and changing decision-relevant thresholds. The process could be automated by climate services to providers to generate output tailored to the needs and vulnerabilities of individuals and organisations. Challenges in the statistical interpretation of the data will be highlighted and a means of identifying robust aspects will be presented. Results will be shown from two recent papers which address local temperature distributions, and work-in-progress on changes in precipitation distributions. The analytical process can be seen as transforming direct weather observations into observations of climate change.

## References:

Stainforth, D.A., S.C. Chapman, and N.W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8(3).

Chapman, S.C., D.A. Stainforth, and N.W. Watkins, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013(371).

# Outlook for Integration between some African Countries (Egypt, Libya, Sudan and South Sudan as Case Study)

EHM. Ahmed (1)

(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

Often considered by developed countries to developing countries as the countries lagging behind in everything, and deal with it as representing store of natural resources, which you can get from the developed countries to their raw materials cheaply and then send to the factories to
return as producers full industrialization of the African market with densities high population to sell at very high prices, which has purchased raw materials.

In spite of the financial aid provided by the developed countries of the African countries are often consumed to feed those poor people and African countries remain waiting for food aid from rich countries, which give barely enough to eat.

In spite of the large number of economic programs and development provided by developed countries to developing countries and least developed countries, we did not find programs that seek to technology transfer, albeit a relative, so that they can African countries to adopt serious programs aimed at building an industrial base, economic and promising those countries, and did not seek the developed countries to Technology Setting in African countries, but all their quest to remain African countries representing the trunk filled with raw materials needed by developed countries as well as Africa remains the most hungry market for the purchase of products from European countries and the United States.

Therefore, the integration between African countries all or some of a director and the sanctuary of the problem, which is no way to solve it, but by African-African cooperation between the countries of the African continent, and here we are trying to shed some light on the possibility of integration between some African countries which are similar in many circumstances and can of through integration together to build an economic base is good, and I've dealt with here, the possibility of integration in the future, between Egypt and Libya, Sudan and South Sudan, as we talked about in attempt (1969/70-1971), to build this integration between the same countries before the secession of Sudan and the announcement of the south as an independent state, but that attempt has failed, and call on the African parties and leaders of those countries free to study the reasons for the failure of the previous attempt integration, and looking to the new leadership at these countries to try again and get rid of all the challenges and barriers to get success of the next attempt.

## P-4418-02

# Population Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Metropolitan Areas: a Brazilian Perspective

A. Barbieri (1) ; G. Guedes (2)

(1) Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Demography, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil, (2) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The rapid urbanization process in Brazil and the consolidation of large metropolitan areas have created important challenges for public policies. This process has been "incomplete" in the sense that population and urban growth have occurred without the corresponding investments in urban infrastructure and reduction of poverty and inequality. These problems assume a new momentum with the potential impacts of climate changes in Brazil regarding, in particular, extreme rainy and dry seasons, health endemics (such as dengue fever and respiratory diseases), urban disasters and water scarcity. The main purpose of this paper is to discuss a pilot research project and its corresponding conceptual and methodological framework to identify and assess population vulnerability to climate change in large Brazilian cities in the next decades. This pilot project is being developed as a key activity of the Rede Clima - the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Changes from the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation. The main mission of Rede Clima is to generate and disseminate knowledge about the causes, effects, and adaptation mechanisms related to climate change in Brazil and consequently inform public policies. We will discuss the key features of the pilot research which will focus on the three largest metropolitan areas of Brazil - São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte. The main methodological feature involves the use of a mixed methods evaluation (MME), which combines primary data collection on perceptions and attitudes of population towards potential climate impacts, as well as other primary and secondary data, which allow measuring intra-urban population vulnerability. This information will help assess profiles of population vulnerability at finer urban scales and develop alternative scenarios for adaptation policies

in Brazil, as well as to improve tools for the dissemination of information and knowledge on adaptation to climate change to urban population and stakeholders. Finally, we will discuss how the research project will provide us a base for the creation of a monitoring system of the human dimensions of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the large Brazilian cities.

## P-4418-03

# Observatories for Climate Change monitoring: Local vs Global approaches

M. Fargette (1) ; M. Loireau (2) ; T. Libourrel (3) ; N. Ben Katra (4)

(1) IRD, UMR Espace-Dev, Montpellier cedex 5, France; (2) IRD, Umr espace-Dev, Montpellier, France; (3) Université Montpellier, Umr espace-Dev, Montpellier, France; (4) Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel, Tunis, Tunisia

**Introduction:** Eco-sociosystems are all impacted by Climate Change. The future of humanity depends upon the adequacy of analyses related to such systems. Several views prevail, some within a local approach and others which take a more global point of view are used in ascending or descending approaches. The aim of the article is to show a) how «local» and «global» are inseparable to preserve both the stability of the system as a whole and global equity ; b) how and the two methods should be continuously confronted to each other. We capitalize here on the conceptual expertise built during programmes aimed at the implementation of specific devices (scientific observatories for the acquisition and monitoring of socio-environmental phenomena).

**System:** Facing Climate Change, we will first assume a) that we consider the system emerging from «Earth-human interactions» (further on named System Earth) as an integrated (eco-socio)system, even though we are quite aware that some kind of ecosystem would further exist, regardless of climate change, while this may not be the case for mankind ; b) that System Earth is a complex system, where natural and anthropogenic processes occur. In that humanity (all of mankind) should aim, for a sustainable future, at maintaining a relatively steady state (holocene like) for Earth System. As a system, System Earth has a structure with biophysical and human components and a functioning, the output of which may (partly or as a whole) be considered as adequate to social expectations. More generally, this may result in the concept of sustainable services. System Earth is a whole, consisting of elements organized altogether in some more or less connected subsystems. Climate is one of these subsystems, which in turn consists of biophysical components. In addition, human interactions with this subsystem are key-points for studies and discussions : «How and to what extent do anthropogenic processes interfere with the climate subsystem?». The impacts of these interactions (in either ways) and relevant management measures for control / regulation represent the core problem. Hence the importance of the choice of disaggregation (choice of categories and scales*) of System Earth into subsystems and the taking into account of existing connections between these subsystems. The spatial projection of the disaggregation of System Earth should help to better assess the proposed management measures with respect to their ratio efficiency / equity in populations involved in efforts for a better management of System Earth.

**Observatory:** For several years, we have built expertise on long-term environmental monitoring observatories for «Desertification» (ROSELT/OSS and REPSAHEA/OS). This leads us to define the concept of «Scientific Observatory», which relies on a rigorous and scientific approach in order to observe the dynamics of systems. Because, even in science, work is often sectorial, the challenge in such observatories is to develop interdisciplinarity so that it becomes possible to share the best definition of theoretical models (of the observed system(s)) as well as methods for observation and analysis. If the observatory is to answer the question «How and to what extent do anthropogenic processes interfere with climate subsystem?», it has to comply with two objectives in its local observation devices: a) gather information for power the global climate model ; b) gain information on the local territorial system and measure its viability, especially when management measures related to Climate Change have been incorporated. Assuming that, as regards the climate system, the theoretical model is at the global level**, one of the challenges is to translate the question of society in a scientific issue and in local models consistent, with respect
to the given holistic ontology, with the global model. Such a network of observatories should be the tool of decision support for governance at both global and local scales.

**Conclusion:** Let's stop trying to save the planet (it does not care) and save humanity instead. Our proposal makes a Plea for the implementation of a network of perennial observatories – as a part of governance processes, this would provide a powerful support for decision making, both at a global and local scale.

* (Continental, national, climatic areas, economic areas)

**More than 20 computer prediction models are currently operated

P-4418-04

Vulnerability Sourcebook: Integrated and participatory vulnerability assessments support adaptation planning and evaluation

* C. Bollin (1)

(1) adelphi consult, climate adaptation, Berlin, Germany

Decision making on effective adaptation policies and actions depends on a sound assessment of adaptation needs and the identification of the most promising approaches. This requires information on types and extents of climate change impacts, existing vulnerability patterns, related adaptive capacities and already implemented measures. The assessment, in addition, has to be realized in a participatory manner in order to take into account all existing knowledge (technical, scientific, local experiences), allow common decision making on key factors and needs, and achieve the sensitization and political will that are later needed for the planning, financing and implementation of adaptation activities.

A tool that has been explicitly put forward at international level for this purpose are vulnerability assessments. Due to the variety of vulnerability definitions and methodologies to assess it, German International Cooperation GIZ commissioned the development of standardized methods and tools allowing a better comparability of results across sectors and regions. The Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2014, is a practical guideline that can be applied to support cross-sectoral, integrated and collaborative adaptation planning across different levels, especially in the context of the National Adaptation Plan processes (NAPs). Moreover, it is conceived for the Monitoring and Evaluation of adaptation as well.

The Vulnerability Sourcebook comprises eight modules and an annex that provide practical guidance on how to conduct standardized vulnerability assessments. Its application in Bolivia, Pakistan, Burundi and Mozambique demonstrated that it can make a valuable contribution to collaborative and integrated adaptation planning and the M&E of adaptation. It combines outcome- and process-oriented perspectives and provides very detailed decision support.

The presentation will outline the tool itself and describe the results of the various application experiences, which concern national level as well as decentralized and community-based processes. The presentation will then stress how the different results have been used for concrete adaptation planning and implementation. These experiences serve also to discuss the different perspectives of various stakeholders and the demand-side aspects on decision support in climate adaptation.

P-4418-05

Ethno-malacology in mangrove ecosystems: integrating local and scientific knowledge to assess socio-ecological variability and coastal change

* A. Burgos (1) ; M. Despinoy, (2) ; C. Sabinot, (2)

(1) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, "hommes, natures, sociétés" umr 7206 écoanthropologie et éthnologie, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Umr 228 "espace pour le développement", Nouméa, New Caledonia

Ecosystems and societies face major emerging challenges

as climate change and ecological services degradation. Nowadays, linking local knowledge and global science in multi-scale assessments is at the heart of international debates. Although, ecological monitoring approaches to assess coastal change have improved considerably during the last decade, many projects still fail at incorporating local knowledge on the conception of the master plan and the analysis of the collected data. Participatory monitoring methods and assessments protocols of coastal change, especially related to coastal change, are generally based on informing the local community what to observe and how to do it, rather than understanding their own perception of ecosystem change and integrating it to the analysis. For providing a strong interface between science-policy- society on climate change issues, these local perceptions and actions for adaptation cannot be overlooked. There is a real need to develop an in-depth reflection on local knowledge and know-how and on interdisciplinary methods to integrate them in the pool of data information for decision-making.

In the search for indicators to monitor and assess coastal change while combining local and scientific knowledge, mollusks appear to be the particularly interesting for setting a constructive and interactive dialogue between scientists and local villagers. In the one hand, the cumulative and complex bodies of knowledge of shellfish gathers include accurate knowledge of mollusks diversity, habitat and distribution, as well as, detail knowledge on marine environment characteristics and coastal socio-ecological change. In the other hand, for scientists, mollusks are considered to be performant indicators of ecosystem quality and physico-chemical change. Furthermore, their ubiquitous nature and broad distribution make mollusks particularly suitable for geographical large scale surveys.

Shell harvesting was found to be an important subsistence activity in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Though, shellfish might be considered to be of secondary importance in the overall diet of coastal societies, it plays a crucial role supplying proteins when faced with environmental fluctuation and seasonal inequalities. In the current context of global and rapid coastal change, shell gulls can push a thus invaluable knowledge and observations related to the dynamics of mollusks assemblages and population change within highly sensitive and productive ecosystems as mangroves are coral reefs.

By combining anthropological, geographical (human geography and remote sensing) and ecological approaches, the aim of this communication is 1) to describe, the aim of this anthropological research - considering ecological, cultural and scientific representations - in two different contexts, 2) to examine the applicability of local knowledge in climate and coastal change monitoring and assessment, and 3) to propose participatory ethno-ecological methods and criteria for enhancing local participation in coastal and climate change assessment. Our presentation will be based on research program and fieldworks that are at different steps of realization in Asia and Oceania and will present potential sites for undertaking further comparative research.

P-4418-06

The IRI Data Library: Decision-Making Tool for Climate and Health

* P. Ceccato (1) ; M. Thomson (1) ; B. Blumenthal (1) ; T. Dinku (1) ; M. Bell (1) ; J. Del Corral (1)

(1) The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from climate change requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health and climate professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate and
health map room and show how we have used it to build
an integrated knowledge system in the support of the
use of climate and environmental information in climate-
sensitive decision-making with respect to vector-borne
diseases.

P-4418-07

The application of multi-criteria decision
analysis in exploring the co-benefits of
climate mitigation technologies and sce-
narios

B. Cohen (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre,
Rondebosch, South Africa

The MAPS Programme (www.mapsprogramme.org) supports developing countries in long term planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Programme combines an extensive stakeholder consultation process with deep quantitative research to provide defensible results that have buy-in from a wide range of stakeholders. These results are then used for long-term greenhouse mitigation planning and policy setting. The Programme is currently active in Peru, Brazil, Colombia and Chile, with preliminary planning activities already having been conducted in a number of African countries.

What has become evident through the projects already implemented in Latin America, as well as ongoing related work in India, is that mitigation planning cannot be conducted in isolation of the consideration to trade-offs related to co-benefits for and negative impacts of mitigation actions on society and the environment. Such co-benefits and impacts include those relating to poverty alleviation, human health, water demand, employment and air quality. In some countries, such as India, the co-benefits concept is inverted, with the salient issue being the mitigation co-benefits of development actions, leading to a formulation of "multiple objectives". However conceptualized, however, there is limited knowledge and experience in how broader development considerations can be incorporated into mitigation planning or vice versa. A particular challenge is the long time horizons that need to be considered in this context, as well as giving due weight to the multiple developmental challenges facing the target countries.

The discipline of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has developed a wide range of tools and methodologies that are well suited to problems that require concurrent consideration of a range of impacts. These include tools that allow for identification of a suitable set of criteria for measuring impacts, quantifying performance of alternatives which do not have natural measurement scales, and for exploring trade-offs in situations with multiple decision makers and sometimes conflicting priorities.

This paper provides a taxonomy of the types of problems and challenges in the climate mitigation space that may be approached using MCDA. These include assessing the co-benefits of individual mitigation options, combining of mitigation options into scenarios, and interpreting the results of modeling of following particular emission trajectories. It then goes on to describe the key components that underpin analysis of problems using an MCDA framework, which fall broadly into the areas of problem structuring and problem analysis. The paper will then highlight two examples of the key errors that are often made in co-benefits analysis – notably use of rating scales and weighting, using relevant examples. Finally, the key limitations of MCDA will be described – notably the time required to conduct a proper engagement exercise and the complexity of the analysis (and hence challenges with communication of results).

Acknowledgements:

This work has been conducted under the MAPS Programme
(www.mapsprogramme.org) with funding from the
Children's Investment Foundation (www.ciff.org). Some of the
thinking that underpins this work was developed during
a 3 day workshop on the use of MCDA in co-benefits
analysis and hence was informed by participants at this
workshop. Individuals who participated were: Hernan
Blanco, Navroz Dubash, Matthias Ehrgott, Jose Rui
Figueira, Marta Torres-Gunfaus, Radhika Kosla, Francisco
Molina, Ana Maria Rojas Méndez, Britta Rennkamp, Serban

Scricie, Ashok Sreenivas, Theodor Stewart, Tanya Visser
and Harald Winkler

P-4418-08

Foreseeing the evolution of the expertise
on climate: some thoughts from the French
Association on Disaster Risk Reduction

M. Deves (1) ; M. Lang (2) ; PH. Bourrelier (3)

(1) Sciences Po Paris & Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
- Sorbonne Paris Cité, Scientific committee of the french
association on disaster risk reduction (afpcn), Paris, France;

(2) IRSTEA, Scientific committee of the french association on disaster risk reduction (afpcn), Lyon, France; (3) AFPCN, Scientific committee of the french association on disaster risk reduction, Paris, France

The French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction (AFPCN), formerly the French Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-INDNR), is a multidisciplinary platform that aims to strengthen the coherency of public policies on disaster risk reduction. One of AFPCN working groups focuses on the risks associated with climate change. At the occasion of the release of the fifth IPCC report, the group re-examined the organisation of IPCC expertise and brainstormed on how it could evolve in the future. This thinking process was based on a review of the existing academic literatures and on interviews undertaken with top climate scientists (with the support of the French Academy of Science, IPSL, LEGOS or CEA) and the IPCC focal point (former and actual) in France. A preliminary report was written, sent off to the public authorities and disseminated to the wider public at the occasion of a study day on July, 9th 2014. Since then, the team has continued to follow up on AR5 results and several study days are scheduled in 2015, aimed at further discussing, enlarging and strengthening its views.

In this contribution, we propose to communicate the
results of this integrative thinking process with the
willing of nourishing the science-policy dialogue on what
could be a more efficient articulation between research,
expertise and decision regarding to climatic issues. IPCC
is a unique experience, first – because of its international
dimension – second because of its specific position at
the crossroad between science and policy. Evaluating
the advantages and the limits of its organisation is key
to foresee the evolution of the climatic expertise in the
future.

Our analysis focuses on the difficulty to transfer the
disparate knowledge of fundamental research, which is
organised in special centres, to a coherent expert
narrative. Today, each of the three working groups
of IPCC has a relatively wide field of knowledge to cover
and build on a variety of research communities from
atmospheric to solid earth sciences, from socio-economy
to political science. Each discipline is confronted to
different constraints in terms of observational, modelling
or conceptual thinking – differences that are not anecdotic
but are heritages of different cultural scientific background
as well as of the complexity of the real world. The question
is whether and how these differences can be accounted
for while building a relevant expert narrative. We propose
to explore three key steps: 1) the articulation of the
working groups, 2) the treatment and communication of
uncertainty, 3) the process of successive summarization
done from the report to the technical summaries to the
Summary for Policy Makers. On that basis we propose
leads for amelioration and adaptation for compliance to
the needs of the new agreement that is emerging from
Copenhagen, Cancun, Lima and will be adopted in Paris.

As we are particularly interested in public policies on
adaptation and mitigation, we tend to suggest bigger
changes than the ones adopted by IPCC last February. The
idea of transferring the expertise on impacts from WGII
to WGII seems particularly relevant to us. Additionally,
we would suggest developing more works combining
adaptation and mitigation. The trend that has led IPCC to
produce ever-bigger reports corresponds to a somewhat
inductive view of science. In addition to a large expertise
on climate change, it would be important to allow for more
focussed works to be undertaken at a variety of scales,
involving a greater variety of scientific disciplines and with
the contributions from a greater variety of stakeholders
(notably the civil society). Workshops and seminars could
be organised at the level of the United Nations to
help identifying the research questions to be covered up
in order to answer to the future expertise needs. The scale at which climatic risks, adaptation and mitigation solutions can be thought together in an applicable manner is the scale at which decisions can be taken and applied. Working at a well-through scale on well-designed questions, and with relevant groups of stakeholders, could allow approaching the challenges associated by climate change in a more readable manner. On the side of public policies, it also seems important to explicit more clearly the interplay between science and policy while going from the large expert reports to the short SPMs.

P-4418-09

Towards a scalable architecture for climate adaptation services: illustration of challenges through future coastal flooding assessments

F. Dupros (1) ; A. Tellez-Arenas (1) ; G. Le Cozannet (1) ; R. Gutiérrez (1) ; F. Paris (1) ; F. Boulahya (1) ; S. Leroy (1) ; F. Robida (1)
(1) BRGM, Orléans, France

As climate is changing, more applied information on its impacts is required to inform adaptation planning. It is a fact that during the last decade, the amount of information relevant for climate change impact assessment has grown drastically. This can be particularly illustrated in coastal areas, where a most important recent development has been the delivery of precise and accurate topography obtained by LIDAR at regional to national scales. However, these developments have not led to easier assessment of coastal climate change impacts. This is due to (1) the complexity of coastal models that also depend on local natural changes and anthropogenic actions and (2) the difficulty to actually use such large and complex datasets. This raises the following questions: can such complex and heterogeneous datasets be used for an efficient communication of future flooding affected by sea-level rise and climate change? How to communicate the related uncertainties? What infrastructure is needed to support the development of such services?

One of the major challenges in the design of this class of information system is to tackle both the volume and the heterogeneity of the data required to build relevant climate change projects. Contributions from wingspan projects like EUMED, EarthCube, EPOS, have demonstrated the feasibility of such architecture. The scalability of the components lying at the heart of these global systems is therefore critical in order to handle large data sets, to integrate complex coastal models and also to deliver near real-time quantitative flooding scenarios. We will therefore discuss several issues related to data architecture at large scale, on-the-fly (geo-)-processing capabilities, management of asynchronous workflows and data diffusion strategies in the context of international standards such as INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information such as Europe).

We finally describe a prototype of web service to quickly communicate spatial information on future flooding along the French coastal zones that takes into account the related uncertainties. We believe that our flexible architecture, with multiple components is able to improve both complex scenarios analysis for experts and dissemination of these future coastal changes to the general public.

P-4418-10

Science-policy interfaces for climate change adaptation in Vietnam: A Case Study of Quy Nhon City

J. Ghimire (1)
(1) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Honolulu, Hawaii, United States of America

Climate science has improved more than ever in the human history. With continuous research at national and international levels, more accurate knowledge of climate change - scenarios, models, data and case studies - is being produced. This body of knowledge has crucial role to resolve challenges raised by climate change - sea level rise, severe weather events, extreme temperature, etc. - through mitigation and adaptation measures in policies

and plans. But in reality, it is almost impossible to reach on common consensus on use of these scientific knowledge in policy process because the policy choices are so context dependent (Prewitt, Schwandt, & Straf, 2012). Therefore, the role of climate science research is not straightforward on addressing challenges of climate change in plans and policies. In case of climate change adaptation, the use of this knowledge is even more complex because adaptation bears more pragmatic and immediate values than mitigation in the policy processes. But it is quite pressing to improve interfaces between science and policy to effectively adapt with current and future problems posed by climate change; especially among rapidly developing countries where the urbanization and economic growth is surmount. There is very little research exploring science- policy interfaces for effective climate change adaptation in plans and policies in the context of developing countries. This research tries to address this gap using case study of Quy Nhon city of Central Vietnam: where almost all effects of climate change - sea level rise, temperature change, change in precipitation, drought events - are predicted. Studies have shown that Vietnam is 5th most exposed nation to the impacts of climate change where 7 - 12 typhoons make landfall annually. It is also one of the most rapidly transforming countries - economically and socially - in Asia. It has strong institutional and bureaucratic set up for policy formation and implementation as well as for scientific research. Using more than 30 interviews at Central and at Provincial level among policy makers, climate scientists, policy implementing agencies, and local political as well as community representatives; this research attempts to identify a pragmatic approach of science-policy interface for climate change adaptation. Major contribution of this research is methodological - to propose an appropriate approach of better interaction between scientific researches and policy processes to adapt with climate change; sharing vulnerable communities in developing nations; where the formal mechanism of policy implementation are not adequate.

P-4418-11

Sharing skills and needs between providers and users of climate information to enable decision making based on science: lessons from the Northern Adriatic case study

V. Giannini (1) ; A. Bellucci, (2) ; S. Torresan (3) ; S. Caparelli, (4)
(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venezia, Italy, (2) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy, (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy, (4) Comune di Venezia, U.o.c. sostenibilità urbana, Venice, Italy

The growing evidence in support of an anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate, and the need to cope with the expected impacts of climate change on socio-ecological systems call for a closer dialogue between climate scientists, and the large community of climate information users.

The research described here is focused on an interactive process designed to bridge the gap between climate information providers (i.e. climate scientists) and climate information users (i.e. decision makers belonging to public institutions). Bridging this gap means designing a two-way communication, so that mutual learning occurs. Main objective of this research is to analyse the need of climate information for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts on the coastal zone of the Northern Adriatic Sea. The Northern Adriatic coastal zone is considered to be particularly vulnerable to several climate-related phenomena, including, among others, heavy rainfall events, pluvial flood, sea-level rise, causing potentially high damages to coastal eco-systems and urban areas (e.g., acqua alta in the Venice Lagoon). The work reported in this paper conducted within the framework of the EU-funded CLIM-RUN project focuses on the set up of a participatory process designed to understand end-users' needs, engaging representatives from both the scientific and local stakeholders communities. The process was facilitated by the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) acting as a "boundary organization".

End-users of climate information were selected among representatives of those public institutions having a
specific mandate for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). End-users' involvement and discussion allowed, since the preliminary phases of the iterative process, to identify which were the end-users' needs: (1) data to support land-use planning, (2) data with greater resolution and longer time series, (3) data on climate impacts and risks, (4) precipitation patterns to improve irrigation, (5) sea level rise and tides to plan ahead both agriculture and Venice defences, (6) climate variations and extreme events, (7) seasonal trend for tidal waves, and (8) hydraulic risk. End-users selected extreme events as the most important climate variables needed, because they are necessary for the development of flood early warning systems, for urban planning, and for Integrated Coastal Zone Management. Based on all needs expressed climate variables were listed in a table and climate products were designed.

Three climate products addressing some of the highest priority needs identified by local end-users were selected. Specifically, climate experts decided to focus on 1) short-term (2020-2025) projections of sea-level rise; 2) seasonal predictions of extreme rainfall events; 3) long-term regional projections of climate extremes (including heat waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events). Additionally, two risk products were developed: 4) Sea level rise inundation risk maps for the low-lying coastal areas of Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia regions; and 5) Pluvial flood risk maps for the urban territory of the municipality of Venice.

We can conclude that the dialogue between end-users and climate scientists is still at an early stage, and there are objective difficulties in clearly identifying a common ground where scientifically robust climate information can be effectively translated into a usable product by the end-users community. However, more than lack of information the problem seems to be, nowadays, lack of integration of climate information into the decision making process.

P-4418-12

## Transforming Science: The Process and Performance of Scientific Synthesis

E. Hackett, (1) ; J. Parker, (2) ; SR. Hespanha, (3) ; E. Cardenas, (1) ; A. Dorr, (1) ; S. Hampton, (4) ; E. Leahy, (5) ; C. McClain, (6) ; J. Rafols, (7) ; L. Sheble, (8) ; T. Vision, (9)
(1) Arizona State University, Shesc, Tempe, United States of America; (2) Arizona State University, Barrett honors college, Tempe, United States of America; (3) University of California, Santa Barbara, Nceas, and Barbara, United States of America; (4) Washington State University, Pullman, United States of America; (5) University of Arizona, Sociology, Tucson, United States of America; (6) NESENCE, Nescent, Durham, United States of America; (7) Polytechnic University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain; (8) University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, United States of America; (9) University of North Carolina, Biology, Chapel Hill, United States of America

Transforming science is a term meant to be understood in two senses. In one sense it means changing the way science is organized and done; in another sense it means producing science that may transform what we know and can do. Achieving transformative solutions to sustainability challenges will require transforming science in both senses of the term: we will need new forms of scientific knowledge and inquiry, and we need scientists to organize and collaborate in a way that can produce such knowledge. Synthesis offers promising possibilities for transformations of both sorts, achieved through intense and focused collaboration across academic fields and across the sectors of science and public policy. This talk describes the inner workings of two organizations that promote scientific synthesis, analyzing their structures and consequent patterns of interaction to understand why they work well and to draw lessons for the design and operation of other such centers. To do so we measure collaborative process in new ways, using sociometric sensors – and analyze substantive output using a topic models of publications from synthesis centers and a reference corpus of articles from cognate fields. We summarize our findings in a model of intellectual fusion that captures the principal dynamics of the process.

P-4418-13

## Towards more consistent assessments of country-level impacts of climate change

L. Horrocks (1) ; G. Wilkins (1) ; S. Winne (1) ; J. Lowe (2) ; H.

McGray (3) ; J. Cook (4)

(1) Ricardo-AEA, Adaptation and climate resilience, Didcot, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; (2) Office Met Office Hadley Centre, Climate knowledge integration, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) World Resources Institute, Vulnerability & adaptation initiative, Washington DC, United States of America; (4) UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, Climate science and international, London, United Kingdom

Vulnerability and impacts assessments contribute evidence to shape and support action to tackle climate change at various levels. However, there is currently no international process for presenting information about climate impacts consistently at the national level. The lack of consistency means it is hard to compare results from different assessments and different countries, and it can be challenging to attempt a synthesis at the country level, given absences of common approaches, preferred timescales, descriptions of sectors, etc. International cooperation is also challenging as the especially challenging when assessments in different countries lack consistency or transparency in respect of assumptions and methods.

The level of ambition for national assessments is constrained by multiple factors within countries, including research budgets, technical capacity, data availability and the appropriate time and temperature scales, priorities, and uncertainty over best practice methods. Approaches to country-level climate impacts, vulnerability and risk assessments span a spectrum including top-down modelling of impacts in sectors, expert synthesis, and bottom-up stakeholder-led risk aggregation and prioritisation. Even within individual countries, preferred approaches for national assessments have evolved over time.

Previous studies have shown that greater consistency in the assessment and communication of climate impacts and vulnerabilities at a country level is both possible and desirable. The UNEP-UK Country level impacts of climate change (CLICC) project is now addressing this. It is facilitating the co-creation of a common process with a range of countries to enable them to present their own climate change impacts and risks in a more standardised way. The CLICC initiative aims to establish a long-term process supported and coordinated at the international level, rather than simply to deliver a one-off suite of information products.

Participating countries represent a range of economic development and geographies. Some of the benefits identified by countries during consultations include: (1) more effective information-sharing, (2) less impact of climate change, (3) leading to enhanced collaborative research and action, especially in relation to trans-boundary impacts; (2) expansion of common capabilities in scientific assessment and building capacity of national systems for climate assessment; (3) generation of good practice and collective learning, through improved transparency around methods, assumptions, data sources and limitations in assessing impacts; (4) consolidation of existing studies and findings within countries, also contributing to a more detailed picture of the global risks from climate change; (5) country-led contributions to the evidence base for provision of support to countries lacking in technical or financial capacity, or approaching their limits of adaptation.

This conference presentation will provide an overview of the achievements of CLICC project. For a fair including the results of consultation with more than 3e countries. It will explain the principles that CLICC has established to engage successfully with the needs of multiple countries addressing multiple impacts in distinctive contexts. These include:

* Maintaining country control over content and communication of their impacts information

* Maximising inclusivity regardless of countries' current capacities

* Minimising the burden and avoiding parallel institutions or obligations

* Promoting good practice, enabling quality control and signposting research needs

CLICC has considered both qualitative and quantitative formats to achieve greater consistency in the communication of results, and the importance of metadata has been underlined. We will present the CLICC options
currently in development, showing how they fit with other common approaches and requirements on countries. We will explain how the outcomes from CLICC support better decision-making at national and international levels. Finally, we will foster discussion around CLICC's longer-term aspirations, exploring how the sustainability of this initiative may be achieved through international support and coordination, leading up to COP21 negotiations and beyond.

P-4418-14

## Multi-model, multi-method, information for decision making

### C. Jack (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Environmental and Geographical Science, Cape Town, South Africa

Despite continual advances in our understanding of the climate system and climate change, continual increases in complexity of earth system models, and continual developments in both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, decision makers continue to be presented with a diversity of contradicting and often highly uncertain information regarding potential changes in climate with respect to their decision context. Added to this is the increasing complexity of the information needs of decision makers as they consider a range of time scales, spatial scales, and complex system interactions in their day to day and long term strategic decision making. Urban centers, particularly in developing nations face severe resource constraints, and yet stand out at key points of risk and vulnerability under future climate due to rapid urbanisation, pressure of natural resources, and critical limitations on governance and administration.

It is therefore critical that the most robust and, critically, defensible information is available to decision makers and that this information is made available that facilitate co-production of knowledge, rather than just supply of knowledge. This is a significant challenge. This paper presents some initial work being done at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. The focus drawing out defensible scale and context appropriate information from a diversity of global climate models (CMIP5), regional dynamical downscaling (CORDEX) and regional statistical downscaling (CORDEX-ESD). The method presented allows for rapid and continual exploration of the diversity of information and so facilitates co-production. The approach allows for the specification of certain characteristics of the information required (variables), and multi-variate characteristics, spatial scales, temporal scales and time horizons, etc.) and uses these requirements to interrogate the diversity of source data and signals in such a way as to extract the most defensible messages.

It is explicitly acknolwowed that the resultant messages may not contain all the information and that some levels of uncertainty due to natural variability or model inadequacy is irritable given the available data.

P-4418-15

## Climate induced environmental domain change: informing conservation decision making in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

### D. Jewitt (1)

(1) University of the Witwatersrand, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa

Climate change is having marked influences on species range distributions, ecosystem composition and phenology. This raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies and conservation planning, the central tenets of which are representativeness and persistence of species. Conservation planning is currently based on static spatial plans which do not adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change and thus cannot ensure the persistence of species. KwaZulu-Natal, a province occurring on the eastern seaboard of South Africa, occurs in one of the biodiversity hotspots of the world. This high diversity and the paucity of species specific information make it impracticable to develop individual climate adaptation responses for all species. We propose a climate dynamic environmental domains into conservation strategies. The environmental domains are identified using specific

environmental correlates of floristic composition in the province, which were temperature, soil base status and precipitation variables. The environmental domains represent the metaphorical stage of the province whilst recognising that species constituting the diversity may change through time. This offers an approach to conserve diversity under current and future climates. Current domain locations were mapped by identifying their positions in a multi-dimensional environmental space using a non-hierarchical, iterative k-means clustering algorithm. Their future locations were explored using an ensemble of six different dynamically downscaled Coupled Global Climate Models based on the A2 emission scenario. The HadCM2 and GFDL2.1 models represented the extreme ranges of the models. Domains occurring in savanna biomes increase at the expense of domains occurring in the grassland biomes. This has significant negative consequences for the species' rich grasslands. Euclidean distances were used to determine the magnitude of change in each environmental domain. The magnitude of change models identify areas of greatest and least stability for each future climate projection, and represent areas of changed climatic conditions or edaphic disjunctions. Species with specific soil requirements may not be able to track changing climatic conditions. Using the identified environmental domain and magnitude of change maps, the variability framework was developed to inform appropriate conservation actions to mitigate climate change impacts on biodiversity. The framework incorporated climatic stability and habitat loss which is another major global change factor in the province. The mean magnitude of change expected in each domain formed the third dimension of the framework which indicates the potential velocity of change in each domain. The study explicitly links floristic pattern and climate variability and provides useful insights to facilitate conservation decision making for climate change.

P-4418-16

## Building a Climate Information Platform for Europe

M. Juckes (1); R. Swart (2); P. Thysse (3); DCW. Som (4); A. Groot (2); V. Bennett (1); L. Costa (5); L. Bärning (6); J. Lückenkötter (7); S. Callaghan (1)

(1) STFC, Space, Chilton, United Kingdom; (2) Alterra, ESS-CALM, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) MARIS, Voorburg, Netherlands; (4) KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; (5) PIK, Potsdam, Germany; (6) SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden; (7) TU Dortmund University, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Dortmund, Germany

In association with the new European space programme (Copernicus), the European Commission is promoting the development of a climate information platform which should supply comprehensive, reliable and consistent information for stakeholders.

The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing a demonstration portal for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This project is one of a suite of FP7 research activities which are administratively independent of Copernicus, focussed on creating the technical and scientific building blocks needed for the service. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of climate portals already offering a variety of products to a confused user community. It would be unwise to seek to replace all this creative activity with a single portal. Instead CLIPC is designing a portal to make distributed resources more accessible through flexible discovery systems. CLIPC needs to deliver more than a directory of resources; resources need to be presented in common protocols so that users can access multiple datasets.

More information about the project objectives is available at www.clipc.eu. The gulf between the climate science communities and the user communities is a central challenge being addressed in the project. It is important to understand that there is significant diversity and multiple communication barriers within these two sets of communities as well as between them. The CLIPC services must presentation will provide a review of progress towards this ambitious goal, through a discussion of user requirements activities, an overview of the proposed architecture, work on assessing and adjusting model biases, and a discussion of the climate impact indicators which will be provided through the portal. When looking at the usability of data for the various users, CLIPC will implement a set of services functioning as a "knowledge base" supplying information to users about the data, including definitions of terminology used, quality of datasets, versioning, and user annotations.
## Cooperation on climate change under economic linkages - How the inclusion of macroeconomic effects affects stability of a global climate coalition

J. Kersting (1); M. Weitzel (2); V. Duscha (1)

(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America

Game-theoretic models of international cooperation on climate change come to very different results regarding the stability of the grand coalition of all countries, depending on the stability concept used. In particular, the core stability concept produces an encouraging result that does not seem to be 'supported by reality'. However, current implementations of this model are based on the assumption that a country's consumption loss due to emission abatement measures only depends on the country's domestic emissions. This approach neglects international macroeconomic effects of emission reduction measures, such as technology spillovers or changes in fossil fuel prices. We extend the game-theoretic model based on the core stability concept by introducing these effects into the model. The computable general equilibrium model DART and damage functions from the RICE model are used to quantify the theoretical model. Contrary to the classical model, we find that the core of the resulting cooperative game is empty and no stable global agreement exists. This is mainly due to fossil fuel exporting countries, which are negatively affected by lower fossil fuel prices resulting from global emission reduction measures. Also, other countries do not have a sufficient incentive to compensate fossil fuel exporters for their participation in a global agreement, because the gains of further cooperation are small. We also find that, if damages from climate change are assumed to be high, countries with comparatively low projected damages are a hindrance to global cooperation. Our results point to two alternative ways forward in the climate negotiations. The first option calls for a «coalition of the willing» to compensate blocking countries mainly fossil fuel exporters, for participation in a global agreement. As we found that no stable global agreement exists, such compensation would not be rational, if the decision is based purely on a benefit-cost analysis of GHG abatement. However, if other arguments such as fairness principles are taken into account, the necessary compensation might be justifiable. The second option calls for the «coalition of the willing» to abandon the UNFCCC process and to try to consummate an agreement among this coalition. This option could come close to the environmental effectiveness of the grand coalition.

## Development of an interactive, multi-objective decision support system in South Africa

T. Lane-Visser (1)

(1) Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

Climate change, and the decisions to be made regarding the management thereof, is inherently complex and multifaceted. However, in the complex world we live in, it is but one of many complexities - there are many other essential systems and pivotal issues with which it interacts. Going forward, decisions will not be based on the traditional decision criterion of cost alone, we should be based on a single criterion (which ignites the 'knock-on' impacts of a decision in terms of other criteria). To be defensible and responsible, decision makers need to be cognizant of the full extent of their decision's impacts before making a final decision. Myopic decision support systems often, inadvertently, do more harm than good in the long run. Multi-objective decision support has been developed to try and overcome this problem.

Generally, a country's energy generation and consumption is a key driver of its greenhouse gas emissions. The TIMES model generator, a widely used country-wide energy planning tool, was developed as part of the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, an international community which uses long term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses. The TIMES model generator combines two different, but

complementary, systematic approaches to modelling energy: a technical engineering approach and an economic approach. It is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear-programming to produce a least-cost energy system, optimised according to a number of user constraints, over medium to long-term time horizons. In a nutshell, TIMES is used for the exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios. The model makes equipment investment decisions and operating, primary energy supply, and energy trade decisions, by region. This outputs an optimal mix of technologies and fuels at each period, together with the associated emissions to meet the demand. The model uses scenarios to do what if analysis, and does not optimise for anything other than costs.

The first part of this presentation chronicles the conversion of SATIM, a South African calibrated version of TIMES, from a cost only to a bi-objective (initially) and multi-objective (ultimately) optimisation model. The practicalities of such a conversion, along with the obstacles encountered and ways to surmount said obstacles, are discussed. This conversion was part of a MAPS South Africa initiative to create a multi-objective energy sector planning model for South Africa. The benefit of having such a model is the ability to study trade-offs and to provide more rich data for decision makers. The second part of the presentation will demonstrate and elaborate on the enrichment of data outputs thanks to the expanded model.

The end goal of this modelling work is to convert the South African linked energy and economic model (a combination of SATIM and a South African economic (CGE) model) into a multi-objective optimisation framework. Adding the economic framework opens the scope for a wealth of economic and environmental opportunities. The main objective is to broaden the reach of the model in terms of decision support and stakeholder representation. Further to this, true multi-objective decision support cannot happen in isolation from decision makers, who have insight into the problem and are able to specify preference information related to the objectives considered and the different solution alternatives. It is thus, proposed to incorporate interactive modelling techniques in the model formulation. Interactive modelling is a constructive process where, while learning, the decision maker is building a conviction of what is possible and confronting this knowledge with his or her preferences, which are also evolving. The presentation will conclude with an overview of the proposed methodology for the development and implementation of such a large scale, complex model. Ideally, advice and constructive feedback on this proposed plan will be elicited during or after this presentation.

## Communicating uncertainties of future coastal impacts for decision making

G. Le Cozannet (1); J. Rohmer (2); A. Cazenave (3); D. Idier (4); F. Lavigne (5); C. Oliveros (2)

(1) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France; (2) BRGM, Orleans, France; (3) CNRS-CNES, Laboratoire d'études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales, Toulouse, France; (4) BRGM, Orléans, France; (5) LGP, Orleans, France

As sea-level rises, coastal hazards and risks such as extreme flooding or erosion are changing. For accurate assessments, several factors must be considered, such as the variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. We proceed to a global sensitivity analysis of future coastal impacts of sea-level rise, in order to provide quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertainties over the coming decades. The method is applied for typical coastal settings of high- and low-energy costs. Storm surge propagations to be included in the sea-level variability, the temporal and spatial scales of coastal adaptation planning (2) the identification of periods by which rising sea-levels cause rapid obsolescence of regular adaptation measures (3) the constraints imposed by different future climate change scenarios for long-term adaptation planning.
# Climate services for adaptation to climate change in a developing country: case studies from South Africa and Burkina Faso

M. Lugen (1)

(1) Université Libre de Bruxelles, Centre d'études du développement durable (cedd), Brussels, Belgium

Background and objectives: Adaptation to climate change (CC) is an issue growing rapidly, one reason being the conservation and projection of negative impacts of climate change. Amongst challenging human societies and ecosystems. Amongst barriers to adaptation, the lack of useful and understandable climate information is regularly emphasized. Many initiatives to implement climate services have emerged in recent years to respond to this need, especially in developing countries. According to the World Meteorological Organization, climate services aim to « provide climate information in a way that addresses the needs of stakeholders and organizations ». My PhD project has a multidisciplinary nature and aims to understand whether, and if so in what ways, climate services may represent a first step towards the development of adaptation strategies at the local level. This research is based on a bottom-up approach, and has for main hypothesis that using climate services for the development of adaptation strategies requires to meet certain criteria (as relevance, access, legitimacy, equity, integration) associated with a participatory approach for the construction of information, taking into account contextual aspects of vulnerability to CC. More specifically, the focus is on the interactions between climate services providers, users and final beneficiaries for one part; and the communication tools used to broadcast the information for the other part. I pursue this way the goal to analyze the degree of consistency between the "supply" and "demand" in terms of climate information, both for content and communication structures, and therefore understand whether CS can be a first step towards adaptation to CC. This may serve to formulate recommendations or alternatives in order to improve the reconciliation between the bottom and the top on that matter.

**Methods:** The methodology (that will be described in more details in the poster) will be applied to two case studies: the first one is Burkina Faso (case study 1) in the province of Western Cap, where a multidisciplinary research center at the University of Cap Town acts as climate service and collaborates with public local stakeholders. The second one is Burkina Faso (case 2), where two climate services projects are currently being implemented targeting adaptation in rural communities. Both countries present a high degree of vulnerability to climate change, although different internal contexts influence the distribution of adaptive capacities and social vulnerability. I first want to highlight internal logistics coming from the building of climate services at the level of suppliers (scientists) and users (administration and technical agents involved) of climate services; then identify demands from final beneficiaries (local public stakeholders and rural farmers in our case studies) through qualitative investigations carried out locally. Data will be collected by means of semi-structured interviews (for all actors) and participatory workshop (for beneficiaries). The selection of those key stakeholders will be a crucial point of the research, and particular attention will be given to what some authors have called « weak » or « absent » stakeholders, traditionally excluded from participating in consultation/decision making processes. The understanding of contextual factors forging social vulnerability to CC, as well as interactions between all actors involved in building climate services, will be two major points of attention in this project.

**Results:** I will present early results from the analysis of a field research planned for April 2015 in South Africa (case study 1) as well as highlights about adaptation to climate change in Burkina Faso (case study 2) on the basis of a previous field research conducted in this country in 2012. I also intend to present a simplified typology of climate adaptation services in Africa. This PhD project is in its first year, research is then on-going and new points may be included later on.

# Land use changes and emissions from deforestation in Guatemala: advances and

# challenges to prepare this Central American country for REDD+

E. Castellanos (1); D. Fernandez (1); G. Fuentes, (1)

(1) Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guatemala, Guatemala

In spite of the fact that Guatemala is consistently listed as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, adaptation needs and gaps have not been the focus of governmental and non-governmental organizations dealing with climate change issues. Rather, most of the work on climate change for the last 15 years has focused on capitalizing on the potential for income from international sources derived from carbon-offset projects, first as part of the Clean Develop Mechanism CDM and more recently as part of avoided deforestation initiatives.

Our research group has accompanied this process for the last 15 years and this paper will present the most important advances in terms of producing the hard data needed to show recent deforestation and reforestation trends in the country, as well as advances in defining the governance system required to implement the National Strategy Against Deforestation, which is the basis for REDD+ initiatives in the country.

We first discuss forest cover change information for Guatemala, where we observe a steady drop in the net deforestation rate from a high value of 1.7% measured for the period 1991-2001, to 1.3% for 2001-2006, to 1.0% for 2006-2010. This drop is not a result of a drop in the gross amount of cleared forest. Rather, it is a result of an increase in the forest regenerated, which includes new plantations and forest regenerating after disturbances such as fires and as secondary growth in abandoned agricultural fields. This is in part the result of a successful incentive program by the central government both for large and small holders (PINFOR and PINPEP), which provides monetary incentives for people and communities who plant new forests or preserve existing forest cover. Ironically, these programs have not been able to generate a single carbon credit because of problems demonstrating additionality.

In terms of the governance needed to reduce deforestation and to generate marketable carbon credits, this paper describes various significant advances in recent years. A climate change law was passed in 2013, which mandates the implementation of policies to reduce and compensate emissions from sectors such as energy, industry and transportation. It includes some provisions to create a national registry for carbon-offset projects, which could set the basis for the development of an internal carbon trading system.

Beyond these national initiatives, many sectors within the country, including several government offices, are very actively pursuing the development and implementation of REDD+ initiatives to attract international investments. We will describe some of the governing issues under discussion, particularly the intergovernmental coordination needed to implement a proper Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system and the discussions around the fair distribution of potential income from avoided deforestation projects in protected areas between the communities implementing the activities to reduce deforestation and the central government who is the legal owner of the land and therefore of the carbon credits to be generated. This of course has been a difficult issue to negotiate, which has resulted in tension between the communities and the central government.

Many of these issues and challenges are typical of situations encountered in developing countries around the world that have been pursuing the elusive goal of bringing in enough funding to reduce or stop their deforestation problems. Unfortunately, even after many years of work, international markets for carbon credits appear to be unreachable to communities in need of funds to improve their adapting capacities. National carbon markets may prove to be a more feasible solution.

# Controlling environmentally-related diseases outbreaks: support of remote sensing, modeling and knowledge integration
M. Mangeas (1); C. Barcellos, (2); N. Dessay, (1); L. Durieux (1); F. Girond (3); V. Herbreteau (4); T. Libourel (5); C. Menkes (6); P. Piola (3); E. Roux (1); M. Teurlai (7); J.C. Desconnets (1); J.F. Faure (1); I. Mougenot (5); C. Révillon (4)

(1) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Umr espace-dev, Montpellier, France; (2) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Departamento de informação em saúde, Manguinhos, Brazil; (3) Institut Pasteur, Unité d'épidémiologie, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (4) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Umr espace-dev, St Pierre La Réunion, France; (5) Université de Montpellier, Umr espace-dev, Montpellier, France; (6) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (7) Institut Pasteur, Unité d'épidémiologie, Noumea, New Caledonia

Recently, in their fifth report on the impacts of climate change (CC), IPCC experts highlight 6 major challenges that will face humankind (IPCC, 2014). The fifth one concerns the impact of global warming on health with a modification of the geography of diseases due to changes in climate. Indeed, in certain areas, CC is going to deeply modify the environment (for example land use, water accessibility, natural habitats) and the links between environment and human health are multiple, complex and multiscale. For example, environment plays an important role on the dynamic of vector-borne diseases since it can modify the distribution of the vectors, and affects interactions between human-vector and vector-pathogen.

In addition to environmental changes, health inequalities are determined by unequal health provision, unequal access (health care coverage, travelling time) and unequal use (related to: socio-economic difficulties, risk perception, risk behaviors). These complex relationships between a changing environment, societies and health are major issues for policy makers.

In this context, gathering and analysing data on climate and health, as well as information on socioeconomic and environmental factors, is essential for planning actions. For this purpose, remotely-sensed data are increasingly available in a very short time (<5m days) at high spectral (from radar to blue) spatial (<5m) and temporal (daily or weekly) resolutions. The access to such data is promising to improve models and response. Recent advances in information and communication sciences and knowledge engineering could advantageously assist the implementation of spatial data infrastructures. Such infrastructures should handle highly heterogeneous and distributed data while allowing to formalize multidisciplinary knowledge.

In this contribution we propose an integrated solution for assessing the impacts of the CC on Environmentally-Related Infectious Diseases that can be broken up into four sub-topics:

* aggregation of high quality multidisciplinary in-situ and permanent monitoring spatial information related to environment, (IPCC, 2014). The fifth one concerns epidemiological diseases (blurred georeferenced cases to respect anonymity);

* formalization of knowledge and reasoning to facilitate contextual interpretation, data integration and dissemination;

* use of mathematical models to investigate epidemiological dynamics and associated risks linking diseases occurrences with factors related to environment and human activities at different scales (regional to local);

* production of indicators for assessing social and environmental changes and predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of the epidemiological patterns.

These transformative solutions are useful to mitigate the effects of CC (vector spread control, epidemics forecast and control, to target appropriate actions, to reduce the costs related to improvement in people's health and to facilitate the dissemination of information to health stakeholders, society, government agencies and media.

We describe several ongoing works which partly contribute to reach these objectives: i) New-Caledonia: --spatial risk modelling, 6 months ahead forecast of dengue epidemics and evolution of dengue dynamics up to year 2100-, ii) French Guiana/Brazil: catalog of multi-thermal spatialized data related to the transborder area between

French Guiana and Brazil, portal of a future malaria sentinel of the Brazilian observatory on climate and health, iii) Mayotte and La Réunion: surveys to investigate the inequalities and choices that drive the use of health care; development of a method to spatially anonymize georeferenced individual data, and iv) Madagascar: early warning system for forecasting malaria outbreaks. We also situate this project within the worldwide initiatives context.

We analyse the benefits of such an approach but also the related obstacles (e.g. data sharing) and technical issues (e.g. multiscaling, complex modelling).

P-4418-23

Robust technological and emission trajectories for long-term stabilization targets with an energy-environment model

C. Nicolas (1); S. Tchung-Ming (1); E. Delage (2); O. Bahn (3)

(1) IFPEN, Economics, Rueil, France; (2) HEC, Montreal, Decision Sciences, Montreal, Canada

In order to inform decision makers and to evaluate climate policies, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMS) is now widespread and common. These models are in particular used to identify promising technological pathways (Labriet et al., 2009), to evaluate various climate policies (Hu et al., 2012) or to assess the impact of policy measures on resource exhaustion (McGladre & Ekins, 2015).

Climate change being a recent and complicated field of research, the last decade brings multiple answers regarding the climate system evolution but raises also a lot of new questions that still need to be addressed by physicists and climate scientists. The imperfect knowledge of global warming mechanisms and the large variety of IAMS lead the model users to reach conclusions sometimes very different.

This lack of robustness across models leads some economists to disregard the use of IAMS. Pyndick (2013) states that climate models are not a substitute for the IAMS surrounding the climate system behavior or the impacts of climate change on economic aspects and the inability of IAMS to consider very low probability/catastrophic outcomes events, the IAM-based analysis of climate policy creates "a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory and misleading". Hence, it seems absolutely necessary to make uncertainty a core feature of long-term, climate related policy analysis and to identify relevant techniques to drive large-scale problems contaminated with "massive data uncertainty".

Motivation Stochastic optimization (SO), sensitivity analysis and deterministic multi-scenario analysis have been applied to tackle this uncertainty issue. SO allows to endogenize uncertainty and to provide an explicit hedging strategy while the other methods stay deterministic. One drawback of SO is that it requires to know the probability distribution of the uncertain parameter which is not always possible. Another drawback of all these methods is that they become rapidly intractable as problems grow in size.

In this work, we introduce an alternative way to tackle uncertainty in energy system models. We rely on robust optimization (Ben-Tal et al, 2009) to make many model parameters simultaneously uncertain. So far, this technique has been scarcely used in energy modeling (Babonneau et al, 2012). We focus on the climate system modeling because of it is large uncertainties and the numerous criticisms it faces.

Methodology In this study, we use the TIAM-World model (Loulou, 2008) that relies on the TIMES paradigm. Often used to analyse climate change policies or objectives. This model contains a Climate module insured by the DICE model. Using robust optimization techniques, we assess the impact of the climate system parameter uncertainty on energy transition pathways under climate constraints. Unlike other studies (Syri et al., 2008, Labriet et al., 2015); we consider all the climate system parameters. This is of primary importance since (i) parameters and outcomes of climate models are all inherently uncertain (parametric uncertainty) and (ii) the simplified models at stake summarize the numerous linear few equations phenomena that are by nature complex and non linear, so that structural uncertainty is also a major issue.
Given the non linearity of the climate module in the parameters, we had to implement a two-level master-subproblem algorithm in order to solve the non-linear problem apart from the classical Times one. We run this constraint-generation algorithm for various values of the uncertainty budget (which represents the number of climate parameters allowed to deviate from their nominal values) and for several levels of the temperature constraint.

Results and discussion. The use of robust optimization techniques allows us to identify economic energy transition pathways under climate constraints for which the outcome scenarios remain relevant for any realization of the climate parameters. In this sense, scenarios/transition pathways are made robust. In particular, we show that adverse combinations of climate parameters include not only the expected climate sensitivity, but also carbon cycle parameters, which directly impact the quantity of atmospheric carbon. Moreover, we compute robust emissions trajectories, and examine how the strategies are spread across regions - especially between oil producing and non-producing regions.

P-4418-24

Information Technology in management of social-economic estimation of the flood effects and water quality in the Central Asia

P. Normatov (1)

(1) Tajik National University, Water resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

The aspects of water allocation between the countries of Central Asia are considered from the point of view of river drain ecology. For the decision of ecological problems, the creation of Interstate Water Quality Control Commission of Transboundary Rivers is offered in the region.

Water relations between Central Asia republics during the Soviet Union time were regulated by "Complex Use and Protection of Water Resources Schemes" in Amudarya and Syrdarya basins. The main purpose of working out basin "Schemes" was to define real volumes situated within the Amudarya and Syrdarya basins and available for allocation among water resources. It was also providing their fair allocation among region republics, meeting all the water resources interests. It should be noticed, that the number of important aspects were not considered and included in "Schemes", for the situation has greatly changed after 1980 (years of the last "Schemes" specification and completion of hydraulic range composition). Mainly it concerns the ecologic acquisitions and sanitary clears thrown into rivers and channels. Overusing basin water in irrigational lands planned as maximum use by "Scheme" resulted in exhausting water resources and appearing new problems. They are:

- Deterioration of ecological condition sometimes leading to ecological disaster in downstream of rivers of Aral Sea Basin;

- Great pollution of river water with pesticides, herbicides, other harmful elements and increasing of water mineralization.

Among all the regions of Tajikistan 93 % of territory that borrow mountains in the Zarafshan River Basin the formation of floods is observed most often (almost 7% of the total across Tajikistan) and their average number in a year reaches 150. More than 300 thousand inhabitants live in the Zarafshan River Basin located in the Ajni and Penjikent regional centers. The local, we callation is affected almost annually with great economic losses. Nowadays one of the most polluted rivers of Central Asia is Zarafshan River. The capacity of this water is changed under the influence of collector drainage water of irrigating basin zone and wastewater of Samarqand, Kattakurgan, Navoy, and Bukhara cities. Mineralization of water exceeds from origin to estuary from 0.27-0.30g/l to 1.5-1.6 g/l.

It gives the ground to hope, that the problem of contamination and ascending of a degree of water arteries mineralization can be solved with the same success by creating (similar ICWC) Interstate Coordination Water Quality Commission (ICWCQ). Structural subdividing "The interstate experts" unite the leading technicians in evaluating the quality and composition of waters from all five states of Central Asia. The main function of this body

is to compare the republican experts' information about water composition and to solve disputable questions by carrying out the independent expert appraisals of water quality of Transboundary Rivers. ICWCQ Secretary appoints the stuff and sets terms of power of the interstate experts. In Information Center established in each country of Central Asia the water quality control statistics in industrial, agricultural, municipal sectors and Hydroparks are gathered, generalized and systematized. Thus, the data concerning water quality from each country come to Analytical Center of ICWCQ.

It should be noted that after reaching the complete transparence of relative composition and quality of all water arteries in Central Asia the next stage is the development of mechanisms to encourage and take measures to the states polluting water environment. These problems together with other questions should be studied in ICWCQ Secretariat for considering at Meeting of Central Asia Heads of Governments.

P-4418-25

Balancing Short- and Long-lived Climate Pollutant Mitigation: Clearer Metrics are Critical

I. Ocko (1) ; S. Hamburg, (2) ; S. Pacala (3)

(1) Environmental Defense Fund, Office of Chief Scientist, New York, NY, France; (2) Environmental Defense Fund, Office of chief scientist, Boston, NY, United States of America; (3) Princeton University, Ecology and evolutionary biology, Princeton, NJ, United States of America

Any effective program to address climate change must reflect a well-balanced effort to reduce emissions among a suite of climate pollutants, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), various fluorocarbons (e.g. HFCs), and black carbon, as their radiative effects and atmospheric longuevities vary by orders of magnitude. However, confusion among policy makers about how to attain the optimum balance required to achieve the desired climate benefits has increased dramatically in recent years, in large part because of the way in which climate metrics, Global warming Potentials (GWPs), are reported in the scientific literature. This confusion is particularly evident in the public and political debate over the expansion of natural gas production in the United States and its use to replace coal in the generation of electricity. Understanding the climate impacts associated with this fuel switching over time is an important and unnecessary source of acrimony. We propose a simple change in the convention used in reporting GWPs that we believe would significantly reduce confusion about the implications of a host of policy decisions. Rather than picking a single time period over which to report the cumulative radiative forcing caused by an emission, typically 20 years (GWP20) or 100 years (GWP100), we propose that the scientific community adopt the convention of reporting climate impacts as a slashed pair: GWP20/GWP100, much the way systolic and diastolic blood pressures are reported together. This framing will help to clarify short- and long-term temporal tradeoffs that are at the heart of much of the confusion.

P-4418-26

Surpassing cognitive barriers for an international climate agreement: Communication matters

C. Pillay (1)

(1) Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Institute of Science and Technology, Barcelona, Spain

Individual perceptions of climate change should matter for the design of an international climate agreement and domestic climate policy. Especially responses to uncertainty will determine whether one can gain support for climate policy, let alone for an agreement. Communication of its magnificence is vital to garner just this. This paper addresses the individual mind and how it reflects the interests of various actors, be it governments, businesses or international organizations, by focusing on similar cognitive barriers. Using the existing literature on behavioural decision-making, two cognitive barriers that seem to get in the way of a desired climate agreement are highlighted: positive illusion and interpreting behaviour in a self-serving manner. Positive illusions serve as a necessary buffer for human beings in dealing with
negative information about potentially disastrous future developments. In the context of climate change, unrealistic optimism and the illusion of control stand in the way of climate policy. This can explain an array of behavioural responses between various actors. For instance, the reason for climate scepticism; or the overreliance on technological solutions without needing to change individual behaviour. With regard to the second cognitive feature, it is in human nature to behave in a self-interested manner, more so when facing limited resources such as food security, oil and clean air. The agreement should be communicated in a way that does not instill such perceptions but instead should focus on the numerous co-benefits of climate mitigation policy. For example, the results of the 2015 agreement are designed to go into effect well into the future with many possible co-benefits. This gives time for preparation and advancement of domestic climate policy. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has even launched a pre-2020 workplan to raise mitigation ambition by highlighting the benefits of action. Nevertheless, the agreement/climate policy is frequently viewed as costly whilst inflicting unwanted immediate self- anxieties that end up blocking such imperative policies unnecessarily. Thus communication which pays attention to words used influences expectations and information processed cognitively by a person.

The paper ends with solutions and tentative proposals on steering such biases so as to foster support for an agreement. Key questions from the behavioural decision-making perspective are elaborated along with its contribution and important implications to the ever evolving trans-disciplinary framework in tackling barriers towards an international climate agreement.

P-4418-27

An integrated framework for climate
vulnerability, and natural hazards & risks
assessment at the local scale - and its
potential for regional upscaling

N. Salzmann (1); S. Allen, (2); K. Awasthi, (3); C. Huggel (4)
; M. Ali Khan (3); A. Linsbauer (1); M. Rohrer (5); M. Stoffel (6);
A. Gupta (7); N. Mendiratta (7); J. Kuriger (8)

(1) University of Fribourg, Department of Geosciences, Fribourg, Switzerland; (2) University of Zurich, Department of geography, Zurich, Switzerland; (3) Indian Himalayas Climate Change Adaptation Programme, New Delhi, India; (4) University of Zurich, Department of geography, Zurich, Switzerland; (5) Metodek GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland; (6) University of Geneva, Institute for environmental sciences, Geneva, Switzerland; (7) Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India; (8) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, New Delhi, India

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) as many other
mountain) regions worldwide, is facing important
challenges in view of coping with adverse effects of climatic
changes. In order to address adaptation needs and reduce
the vulnerability of the communities living in potentially
affected regions, the Indian Government under its National
Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) is
targeting an integrated vulnerability and risk & hazards
assessment encompassing the 12 Indian Himalayan
States. The assessment will serve as an important basis
for prioritizing, planning and implementing adaptation
measures at State/ sub-national level.

The Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, being implemented in partnership with Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India is actively supporting these efforts through scientific and technical knowledge cooperation between Swiss and Indian scientific institutions. A first step includes the development and implementation of an integrated and comprehensive framework for climate vulnerability and natural hazard and risk assessment in a pilot region of the IHR. Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, India, has been identified as climate hotspot and as such represents an ideal pilot region.

The framework for Kullu is based on the latest concept of vulnerability, hazards and disaster risks from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; AR5, SREX). Specific joint Indo-Swiss collaborative studies are in progress in Kullu covering thematic themes such as climate, cryosphere, floods, agriculture, tourism, forestry and biodiversity. Fundamental for

integrated vulnerability assessments is a common baseline and thus particular care was addressed to the definition and agreement for a common time window and homogenous datasets (climate, socio-economic, environmental) for all studies conducted within the framework. With regard to the time window, the baseline refers ideally to a relevant time horizon of their livelihood and must span a climatological period of preferably 30 years (WMO standard). For Kullu, the time window 1981-2010 was chosen.

In this contribution, we present the framework for the Kullu region, related results from specific thematic studies and discuss in particular the potential and limitations of the upscaling processes towards a common framework for integrated vulnerability and risks & hazards assessment for the IHR.

P-4418-28

Integrating Research and Practice - What Climate Service can learn from other Fields

S. Schuck-Zölzer (1); M. Bergmann, (2); C. Brinkmann, (3); J.T. Huang-Lachmann, (3); S. Rödder, (4)

(1) Helmholtz-Center Geesthacht, Climate service center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany; (2) ISOE - Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt, Germany; (3) working for: Helmholtz- Center Geesthacht, Climate service center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany; (4) University of Hamburg, Centre for globalisation and governance & center for earth system research and sustainability, Hamburg, Germany

Climate change and its widespread impacts are a challenge for both science and society. To find sustainable solutions and develop adaptation strategies, a transdisciplinary approach to this challenge is needed. Climate service is bridging the gap between climate research and practice. This integrated research relies on intense communication between various players in science, politics, economics and administration. So – by nature – climate service is transdisciplinary.

Some fields now have a tradition of integrating practice partners, but so far, there is hardly any integration of knowledge and experiences on the meta-level. Rather, the terminology, concepts and references that are used are very divers. Neither theoretical insights nor empirical case studies on transdisciplinary communication in different fields have so far been systematically reviewed.

To evaluate in how far climate service can benefit from existing approaches to transdisciplinarity, a literature review has been carried out. Its aim was to better understand definitions, approaches, methods, and barriers over the different fields of context. Following Stauffacher et al. (2008), different levels of practitioners' involvement were identified. The presentation will both, sum up the results of the literature review and the outcomes of a recent conference, which collected experiences from scientists and practitioners from a wide range of disciplines and practice fields. From this experiences and good-practice-examples the workshop, held in November 2014, aimed to deduce success factors and quality criteria in transdisciplinary dialogues.

On the basis of both review and conference data, the
introduction of research practice is collected at in a range
of contexts, such as public health, environmental protection,
sustainability, and climate change. A special focus lies on
aspects of social-ecological research and stakeholder
engagement in climate change adaptation.

P-4418-29

Maning Risks? Early Warning Systems for
Climate Related Hazards

A. Sitati (1); Z. Zommers (1); M. Habilov (1); A. Vanzanten (1); E. Vogel (1)

(1) United Nations Environment Programme, Division of Early Warning and Assessment, Nairobi, Kenya

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP's CLIMWARN project. The project has sought to identify how
governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards and early warning communication options. Preliminary results show significant variability in risks and needs within countries. Here there is critical need for advanced warning so that adaptive measures can be taken. Some regions have limited access to information through TV or SMS. Here traditional institutions, such as chiefs and meteorological extension officers, will be critical for warning delivery. In contrast, in urban areas mobile phones may be an effective way to deliver warnings and spread information about risks. Communities should be involved in early warning system design so appropriate communication channels, and trusted groups, are used to deliver warnings. There is a need for flexible early warning systems that address community specific needs and deliver broad information about risks. Information disseminated through early warning systems should not only include details of hazards, but also short-term response options and long-term adaptation options, thus increasing both capabilities and response options.

P-4418-30

Water Related Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Management Strategies in the United States: Climate Adaptation to Floods and Storm Surges

EZ. Stakhiv (1)

(1) Institute for Water resources, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America

Water resources planning and management has evolved in the United States through several distinct stages over the past two centuries, transitioning from a concern for inland waterways; transportation to single purpose flood control and finally to multiple purpose large reservoirs. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) – both economic and loss of life – were always the main goals of these strategies, as an integral part of US Federal system that presents major challenges to coordinating water resources development and DRR, at both the watershed level and metropolitan area scales. Equally, the underlying and inherent climate-based components of risk and uncertainty comprised the scientific basis of assessment and evaluation of management strategies.

The relative performance of existing flood protection systems of three recent disasters are presented; Hurricane Katrina (2005), Superstorm Sandy (2012) and the Mississippi River flood (2011). The cases revealed new vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the US DRR responses and planning, while contrasting the relative successes of long term, strategic DRR planning and investments in the case of the Mississippi River and Tributaries system.

Today, the underpinning of DRR in the US is risk-based decision making, which is distinct from traditional water resources multi-objective decision making. This new paradigm maximizes social well-being, public safety and risk-reduction strategies for the local population, subject to numerous environmental constraints (and preferred solutions), leading to what could be termed 'sustainable development'.

The new 'risk-informed decision making' culture is far more complex. It is based on risk-cost comparisons and tradeoffs among various options. It engages the affected public. This evaluation approach requires a great deal more complex and technically sophisticated information and attention of the public – not just the analysts and decision makers. As a consequence, the public is also asked to bear more of the residual risks and costs, without often fully understanding the consequences.

OVERALL LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE THREE RECENT MEGA-DISASTERS

a. Disaster risk reduction comprises a special category of flood management, as it connotes extremely large events, with catastrophic human consequences and national level economic impacts.

b. Conceptually, federal systems should be able to deal effectively with such events, but a series of recent disastrous floods and storm surges in the US has exposed

some of the weaknesses in the response of federally-based disaster management systems.

c. Risk-based decision making at the local level is neither replicable nor uniform. It is not at all clear, whether a collection of loosely connected local solutions, with varying degrees of risk and uncertainty, can guarantee either robustness or resilience. The recent responses to Katrina and Superstorm Sandy reinforce that public confusion.

d. Residual risk is almost always underestimated because it is difficult to quantify a cascading series of highly interdependent measures, each of which has its own reliability characteristics and risk of failure.

e. A flood protection system is a collection of fragmented measures, including new building codes, zoning ordinances, and structural measures that are implemented over a long period of time and loosely coordinated by multiple authorities. This comprises the definition of a 'brittle system'.

f. Because people bear the risks, their involvement in choosing risk and participation in the tough operational decisions made during the process of planning for mitigation of potential events is critical to the health of a democratic system

P-4418-31

Climaps.eu an Online Platform for Informing Decision-Making

T. Venturini (1) ; A. Meunier (1) ; A. Munk (1)

(1) Sciences Po, médielab, Paris, France

In our contribution we will present the platform Climaps. eu: a digital atlas providing data, visualizations and commentaries about climate adaptation debate.

This atlas is addressed to climate experts (negotiators, NGOs and companies concerned by global warming, journalists...) and engaged citizens. It employs advanced digital methods to deploy the complexity of adaptation discussions and information design to make such complexity legible.

Climaps contains 33 issue-maps, each focusing on one adaptation issue and providing:

* an interactive visualization;

* a discussion of the map and the findings that it discloses;

* a description of the protocol through which the map has been created;

* the data on which the map is based and the code employed to treat them.

Climaps.eu has been produced by the EU-funded project EMAPS (www.emapsproject.com) as the largest 'experiment tempted so far with the method of 'controversy mapping'. Controversy mapping is a research technique developed in the field of Sciences and Technology Studies to deal with the growing intricacy of socio-technical debates. Instead of mourning such complexity, it aims to equip engaged citizens with tools to navigate through expert disagreement. Instead of lamenting the fragmentation of society, it aims to facilitate the emergence of heterogeneous discussion forums.

A few examples of the Climaps.eu findings that we will discuss in our presentation:

Adaptation and mitigation in the UNFCCC

Analyzing the Earth Negotiation Bulletin, we identified the main discussion in the UN Convention on Climate Change, traced their visibility over time and the countries engaged with them. Adaptation and mitigation, we concluded, have different places in the UNFCCC. Mitigation constitutes the main object of the convention, is present everywhere in its conversation and structures the articulation of the debate. Adaptation, on the contrary, appears as a group of specific discussions and has a limited though central place in the negotiations. Although, adaptation is present from the beginning in UN conferences (in particular the question of its funding), an 'adaptation turn' is visible from 2004 with
the rise of the questions of vulnerability and of climate
change impacts.

cfr: http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/mitigation-and-adaptation-in-the-unCCC-debates

The geopolitics of adaptation expenditure

Using RioMarkers coding we extracted from the OECD Official Development Assistance the bilateral adaptation funding and visualized it in a way that allows comparing how the distribution of aid varies between these countries. We compared not only the amounts committed by donor countries, but also their preferred policy areas; the concentration of their aid, their favored recipient countries and closest UNFCCC recipient groupings. Some donors appear to specialize in particular policy areas; for example, Japan is best at funding disaster reduction; France water management; Spain government and civil society; UK biodiversity and Germany agriculture. Some countries concentrate their aid more among policy areas and recipient countries (EU, Denmark) than others (Spain, Italy, Ireland), which could suggest a more planned approach to adaptation aid.

cfr. http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/the-politics-of-adaptation-expenditure

Who deserve to be funded

We have compared the priorities of bilateral and multilateral
adaptation funders with different ways of assessing
vulnerability. Using Germanwatch, DARC and Gain
vulnerability indices, as well as the Human Development
index, we explored possible correlations between the
amount of money allocated to a country and the degree
to which it could be said to be climate vulnerable. We
found both positive and negative correlations. In general,
development oriented indices correlate more with
adaptation funding, providing evidence that adaption
and development are closely connected. We have also tried
to find out, where vulnerability indices are mentioned and
we found that climate specific vulnerability indices are
rarely used by actors in the UNFCCC process, but widely
cited in the new media.

cfr. http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/who-deserves-to-be-funded

P-4418-32

An Integrated GIS-Based Climate Change Model to Assess Sustainable Development Scenarios

AM. Yadghar (1)

(1) CIRAIG, Environmental Engineering, Montreal, Canada

Climate change and its impact are serious issues that
scientist and engineers are involving with. It is believed
that human activities contribute to the Earth's climate
change significantly and the change is tremendously rapid.
A reliable methodology to predict the climate change is
modeling. Climate change models aim to improve the
understanding of Earth's climate by focusing on scientific
analysis of the governing sets of processes that describe
the climate over different conditions; evaluate strong
methods to obtain higher spatial resolution for projections
of climate change; and detect uncertainties in climate
predictions by real simulating.

On the other hand, sustainable development needs a
bright image of the future. Sustainability cannot be
achieved without regulating and controlling human
activities. Regulations and policies come within different
scenarios that are acceptable internationally. Models can
predict the future conditions based on various scenarios.

This research proposes an integrated GIS-based climate
change modeling methodology than can use different
climate scenarios. Its easy-to-use method helps the policy
makers and decision support systems to see what will
happen in the future by applying a certain scenario in a
short time. It also helps the users to visualize the results
with a good spatial resolution in order to choose the best
policy. The proposed methodology is believed to be first of
its kind as it is run very fast and has a simple interface, yet
with powerful background.

4419 - Climate science in the public sphere. Media coverage and communication devices analysis for effective policy implementation

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

O-4419-01

Climate change journalism - communica-
ting the science

E. Eide (1) ; J. Painter (2) ; R. Kunelius (3)

(1) Akershus University College for Applied Sciences,

Department for journalism and media studies, Oslo, Norway;

(2) University of Oxford, Reuters school of journalism,
Oxford, United Kingdom; (3) School of Social Sciences and

Humanities, Tampere, Finland

The MediaClimate network presents the results of TV and newspaper representation of the IPCC AR5 reports in a large number of countries, analyzing the differing levels of attention and frames emerging when journalists in a variety of national contexts report on the latest results from climate scientists. To what extent are the carefully formulated scientific concepts, such as uncertainty, probability and degrees of likelihood present in the journalistic texts? Which voices are quoted, which genres are salient, and which recommendations are made by editors and journalists? To what extent are the IPCC results and recommendations related to peoples' everyday experiences investigated in the media? Which challenges in reporting on a global scientific endeavour may be traced, and what are the perspectives for a more cosmopolitan (globally oriented) journalism?

O-4419-02

Advancing climate mitigation efforts
through dialogue with the Australian
Public

P. Ashworth (1)

(1) University of Queensland., School of Social Sciences,
Brisbane, Australia

There is no doubt the politicisation of climate change
discussions in Australia have severely impacted the
coordination of Australia's mitigation actions. Despite
the lack of proactive action at the political level, many of
the Australian public are concerned about climate change
and its impact, but are at a loss as to what might be the
best actions for them to take as part of the response to
climate change. To help facilitate greater understanding of
the portfolio of mitigation options, and raise awareness of
actions that can be taken at the individual and community
level, a number of engagement and dialogue opportunities
have been undertaken. This paper will present the research
findings from a range of activities that have been utilised
to engaged with lay publics across Australia. As a result
of this work we have been able to inform policy makers of
public preferences, bring about a reduction in participant
footprints and understand in more detail the Australian
public's preferences for engagement on the topic.
Processes used vary from kitchen table discussions; to
large group processes – of up to 100 people in the room;
citizens' panels and interactive survey tools. The results
generally confirm that the Australian public are concerned about action on climate change, tend to have a preference for renewable energy, but lack in-depth knowledge on the range of low carbon energy technologies.

## O-4419-03

### Building a vision for a low carbon society in France with non-violent communication methods, result from the R&Dialogue european project

M. Ha Duong (1) ; M. Cherbbi (2)

(1) CNRS, CÎRED, Nogent sur Marne, France; (2) CÎRED (International Research Center on Environment and Development), Nogent sur Marne, France

As organisations and governments working towards the energy transition broaden their focus to include a large spectrum of society, they need processes capable of building deep understanding out of the diverse backgrounds, perspectives and judgements of other stakeholders. Several countries have initiated large-scale social dialogues on the energy transition, demonstrating the difficulties inherent in implementing a genuinedialogue and integrating it into the democratic process.

This communication presents the results of the R&Dialogue project in France, a research-action to implement dialogue at the regional, the national and local levels using renewed tools to improve the practice of democracy.

## O-4419-04

### How to rethink the Science-Societies debate about climate change?

P. Maugis (1) ; L. Scotto - D'apollonia (2) ; S. Blangy (3)

(1) UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ (UMR 8212), IPSL, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) U2M, Liderf, Montepellier, France; (3) CFE- CNRS-UMR 5175, Dynamique des Systèmes socio-écologiques, Montpellier, France

The question of climate change is increasingly drawing consensus among the science community. However, there is an obvious and continuous lack of dialog between scientists and stakeholders (institutions and civil society). How can we foster debate on climate issues between academics, decision-makers and the citizens of the World?

Such a dialog is impaired in different ways. We will focus on some of those that are particularly pregnant and will propose mechanisms to address them. The first one lies in polemics and controversies related to uncertainties in the scientific knowledge and the way they are accounted for and communicated. Pascal Maugis will show how uncertainties should be reported in order to go beyond them and eventually make them an opportunity for enlightened and shared decision making for the management of the risks shared by climate change.

Second, «citizen science» about the climate issues remain isolated, weakly coordinated and for the most part unknown to the general public. Moreover, social demands vary a lot, addressing for example educational issues, adaptation measures or public debates. Because the climatologists who intervene in the public space are at the frontier between science, expertise for territorial policies and political strategies, they bear contradictory constraints. This may result in ineffective – or even counter-productive – discourses. Lionel Scotto d'Appolonia will analyse such situations using the example of climate controversies. This suggests to strengthen the path towards participatory science : A new form of the «Palaver Tree» (L'Arbres à Palabres in french). Inspired by African tradition, the palaver tree is a meeting place where villagers « freely » discuss social and political problems. Its modernized form, scientifically enriched by Human and Social Sciences, will be explained.

Finally, participatory citizen expertise and science have met several success. Sylvie Blangy will present one such success story on tourism adaptation in Québec.

This presentation is set-up and facilitated by the PARCS (Participatory Action Research and Citizen Sciences) research working group: a group including 50 scientists and NGO members from diverse research fields. The objective of PARCS is to synchronize various initiatives of «citizen science» about the climate issues. The PARCS group is conceived as a field-laboratory to explore new ways to question Science-Society relationships, by putting into synergy all demands and initiatives from citizens and institutions. The «palaver tree» is one of its three research axes.

## 4419 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-4419-01

#### Dialogue among stakeholders for climate risk management strategies

E. Aoki (1) ; S. Emori (2) ; T. Kiyoshi (2) ; K. Fukushi (1)

(1) The University of Tokyo, Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, Tokyo, Japan; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Climate risk management in long-term and in global scale is a key topic in this century to achieve global sustainability. Therefore, we need to develop risk management strategy to encounter problems caused by climate change. However, climate risk management is still controversial and complicated issue especially in developed countries. One reason is that there are various issues and stakeholders (SHs) play various roles in the society and relationship among them are very complicated. In order to provide arena of discussion for SHs, it is extremely important to provide appropriate scientific knowledge for all SHs in an easy-to-use manner with an understanding of the actual social context.

“ICA-RUS” Integrated Climate Analysis - Risks, Uncertainties and Society, a research project funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, in order to deliver scientific findings to SHs and to develop climate risk management strategy for various sectors in Japan. From this project, we organized SH dialogue for communicating and developing a framework of climate risk management. We set two objectives: framing climate risk management problems and understanding SHs' needs. Framing problems is expected to extract agenda, to develop a framework of relationships among perspectives and values, and to understand key factors to influence on problems. Understanding SHs' needs is to know these three points; what kinds of information sources they would like to use for judgment, how scientists should deliver information for the society and what they expected scientists and different SHs to do for contributing to the better consequences of climate risk management in the future.

This SH dialogue can contribute to develop global strategy and stimulate comprehensive and active discussion in the society. However, conventional methods of interview and discussion are not effective for uncertainty relationship with SHs and issues. In addition, people are not familiar with expressing their opinions to others in public in Japan and many Asian countries. People also feel non-experts should not talk about issues. In Asian culture, we need to reform and integrate methods for supporting participants to express their views even in front of experts. Thus, we have designed a triangulation approach for the dialogue and its analysis.

The SH dialogue contains three steps: information sharing from experts, in-depth interview, and focus group discussion. This step by step approach encourage participants to join dialogue in gradually. We also collected relatively small number of people (4–5 people in a group) as focus group than conventional manner. This helps everyone get opportunity and reason to utter in a group. We chose SHs from those who are involved in global climate talks and related activities. The structure of dialogue is divided in two sections: current perspectives in a semi-structured group interview and long-term strategy in an interactive group focus discussion. In the dialogue, we observed group dynamics became active gradually.

From the dialogue records, we made verbatim transcriptions. We analyzed it by the qualitative research method for understanding key categories or points. To utilize all utterance and to integrate the quantitative research methods, content analysis was also adopted to
transcriptions. We give attention to "real voice" deeply but also to comparison analysis and integration in an easy-to-understand manner. Therefore, we can share findings from a multilateral perspectives.

From these triangulation approach, we discussed key categories and related SHs of climate risk management, like international governance, mechanism of decision-making, communication, future vision and so on.

Multiple research design seems to be an effective way for framing complicated issues and setting agenda from it. This diversity of choices in findings is expected to invigorate discussions in the society.

P-4419-02

# A linguistic analysis of IPCC Summaries and its coverage in scientific and popular media

R. Barkemeyer (1) ; G. Napolitano, (2) ; S. Dessai (3) ; B. Monge-Sanz, (4) ; BG. Renzi, (5)

(1) Kedge Business School, Bordeaux, France; (2) University of Bonn, Institute for medical biometry, informatics, and epidemiology, Bonn, Germany; (3) University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; (4) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom; (5) Rome 3 University, School of education, Rome, Italy

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Its findings should be communicated in a way that can be understood by a non-scientific audience. Existing studies have focused on the way to which IPCC probabilistic statements are interpreted, and on the discursive construction of the IPCC in national newspapers, including the influence of grammatical and word choices. We have undertaken a linguistic analysis of SPMs and related scientific and popular media coverage on the launch of each IPCC assessment report from 1990 to 2014. We employ widely-established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media within this time-frame. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC's efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and broadsheet newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

P-4419-03

# Young Voices: Developing narratives for engaging young people on climate change

A. Corner (1) ; J. Clarke, (1)

(1) Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN), Oxford, United Kingdom

Young people are in a unique position as they face the reality of a changing climate:

potentially they are best-placed to push for and define the long-term societal response to climate change, yet they are also the most vulnerable to the legacy of decisions made by older generations. Young voices are not prominent in the climate change discourse, and engagement with climate change among this crucial demographic is in many ways limited.

In this presentation, we will report the findings from a series of qualitative 'narrative workshops' involving 36 young adults in the UK during May/June 2014. The research found that young people see climate change as a problem for the here and now and respond positively to messages that frame climate change as a contemporary concern requiring an immediate response. However, young people sometimes find it difficult to talk about climate change with their peers because of a perception that it comes with a certain stigma and is 'uncool', or preachy to do so.

Most participants were either unaware or uninterested in the idea of organised climate change scepticism, suggesting that campaigns to counteract science-

based scepticism will not be particularly useful for this audience. Debating solutions - rather than the science - was identified as a much higher priority. Some commonly used climate advocacy phrases (such as '2 degrees' or 'managing climate risks') were either unfamiliar or unpopular with the young people we engaged. Participants were receptive to the idea of protecting the 'things they love' from climate change, but to avoid trivialising the issue, felt that it was important to always make the link between the 'everyday' and the 'bigger picture', joining the dots between the personal and the political.

We will present and discuss these and other key findings, and explore the implications for developing narratives to engage young people more effectively in future initiatives.

P-4419-04

# Communicating Climate Change to the General Public and Policy Makers

H. Cutting (1)

(1) Climate Nexus, Strategic Communications, San Francisco, California, United States of America

The results of polling surveys, academic literature, and practitioner field work in communications suggest that the work of communicating climate science should be calibrated in a strategic manner against the mindset and experience of audiences, the larger landscape of communications by all voices that construct the public narrative, a clear theory of change, and a clear understanding of the goal of science communicators. Scientists are highly sought after communicators in public discussion on climate change - but that dynamic is driven more by the high regard and trust the public places in scientists when discussing a controversial issue than any public interest in taking a deep dive into the science. Polling in the context of climate change communications is best used as a road map, illustrating audience mindset, not as a compass heading indicating direction of travel. Support for climate protection in the general public is often a mile wide but only an inch deep. One barrier is the impression of climate change as a distant and future threat. Extreme weather offers a teachable moment addressing a key misperceptions regarding climate change. Another issue is the analog of smog that audiences bring to their understanding of carbon pollution. Another compounding problem is the self-identification by the audience of bad actors. The experience of science communications on tobacco industry offers a helpful solution here. Action on climate change requires what sociologists call 'hot cognition,' a story element that goes beyond the physical science of climate change. Principles for effective climate science communication include: tell us what you know (not what you don't know) and choose metaphors that not only illustrate the science but highlight the significance of the situation. The bathtub metaphor for carbon sinks and sources is one example of a technically correct metaphor that often sends the wrong message. Scientists can leverage their validating authority to affirm the basic climate science narrative that speaks to the interests of the general public and policy makers, a narrative that centers on the salience of the science for public policy, not on the physics or chemistry of the science. The narrative is centered on five key points:

* Climate change is happening, right here, right now.

* We're causing it.

* Scientists agree about this.

* We can fix it.

* We can't wait, the problem is locking in now.

P-4419-05

# Climate Communication: Bringing It All Together

R. McCarthy (1)

(1) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

When it comes to matters of global importance a wide view is needed.

This talk brings together independent studies in the fields of communication, media, psychology, linguistics
and the physical sciences to identify the optimum way forward for climate communication. Recommendations as to how climate communications could have improved been made by various institutions, but as of yet no multi-disciplinary, or multiple-institution strategy has been unveiled. This talk is designed to bridge that gap and work to bring disciplines together.

An analysis of opinion polls and the reporting of the detail of climate matters primarily in European and American newspapers — including the provision of renewable energy generation — indicate equally a ‘will’ to address climate issues and a ‘dis-satisfaction’ at current action.

The talk specialises in analysing these divides but with a particular and focused experience in linguistics. The scientific language uses words in a different way to ‘regular’ English. This talk asks what we can learn from a very proficient use of the English language. The issues of conveying clear messages around climate variability and change transcend these boundaries.

This lecture looks at these linguistic, societal, and scientific issues, drawing them together to make a cohesive way forward.

P-4419-06

## Has Political Action On Global Warming in the United States Been Forestalled by Gangsters? A Historical Analysis

M. Roddy (1)

(1) independent, Yucca Valley Ca, United States of America

Action behind the scenes to hide and sabotage climate change awareness is pervasive, especially in English speaking countries such as the United States, Australia, and Canada. Causes include fossil fuel influence on mainstream media, as well as educational institutions and government agencies.

This fossil fuel campaign, abetted by corporate sectors such as banking and construction, is well organized and financed. Global warming activists are relatively underfunded and poorly represented in American media. We propose a historical analysis employing biting satire in order to correct this situation.

The author achieved prior success in this regard through his Climate Villains series, published in Alternet and Buffalo Beast, and republished in over 40 internet magazines. Authors such as the Koch Brothers and media puppets like George Will and Lord Moncton were portrayed in biting satirical fashion. The author has also published serious research pieces in Energy Future and Climate Progress.

The proposed article for Paris is being written at present, and will employ the gangster metaphor, along with examples from European history. Examples will come from the 14th and 17th centuries, periods of difficult climatic conditions that led to large areas of Europe being controlled by armed bands of mercenaries. Consequences included disregard for any laws or social norms, as these «companies» of armed thugs sacked towns, raped and pillaged, and sold their services to the highest bidder. These companies were often employed by heads of state, or religious leaders such as Cardinal Richlieu.

We are seeing gangsters take control of the United States, using political leaders as proxies. Included are control of media messaging via corporate advertisers, and placing puppets on courts and in local political offices. Violence is routinely employed, as in American bombing campaigns in the Middle East, assassination of reporters, and intimidation of political opponents. These actions are mostly employed by Republican Party political operatives, acting on instructions from fossil fuel party and banking firms, but Democrats are also often complicit. Evidence can be seen in the majority support of the Keystone Pipeline in the US Senate, where 63 Senators insist on allowing a pipeline that could devastate aquifers, will increase GHG emissions, and provide no significant job growth or increase in US oil supply. The end products, too dirty to meet US standards, will be shipped to the Latin American market.

The beneficiaries of the pipeline are the Koch Brothers, the largest owners of Tar Sands operations, and the owners of the refineries in Texas where the Tar Sands oil will be shipped. Their net worth of approximately $100 billion US has enabled this level of political control. Estimates of their reported cash contributions to political puppets have exceeded a $1 billion US, with dark money contributions possible.

I propose to use historical analogies, and make recent comparisons to American gangsters of Sicilian origin. This portrayal will be illustrated by Ian Murphy of Buffalo Beast, whose satirical art work is among the best in the world. Koch, Villerson of Exxon, and Boyce of Peabody Energy (a coal company) will be drawn in expensive Italian suits, similar to what is worn by actors in shows such as Boardwalk Empire and The Godfather series. Along with the satirical drawings will be detailed summaries of their criminal activities. These fossil fuel executives have killed far more people through pollution and greenhouse gas emissions than any Sicilian mob ever did, and evidence will be cited to support this assertion.

The analogy is based on evidence, but somewhat imperfect. The goal is to reach a wide popular audience, establishing the gangster meme and illustrating how it plays out in considerable detail. By illustrating financial ties, including degradation of education and media reporting, we propose to put pressure on bad actors in the United States and elsewhere.

## 4420a - How to price carbon for industry?

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### O-4420a-01

##### Session Number 4402b - Carbon Pricing

M. Muuls (1) ; R. Martin (2) ; A. Dechezleprêtre (3)

(1) Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Business School, London, United Kingdom; (2) Imperial College London, Business School, London, United Kingdom; (3) London School of Economics, Grantham institute on climate change and the environment/centre for economic performance, London, United Kingdom

The EU Emissions Trading System is the EU's flagship climate policy, establishing since 2005 its carbon market across Europe with more than 2,000 plants in 31 countries regulated at present. With industry responsible for a large share of global carbon emissions, carbon pricing is seen as a central policy instrument for industry's transformation towards more energy and material efficiency and for unleashing innovation processes. We will discuss what effect the carbon price had to date on industry.

We discuss the results of a research paper that uses comprehensive firm and plant level data for more than

4,500 French manufacturing firms. It examines the economic and environmental impact of the EU ETS. Our results suggest that ETS regulated manufacturing plants in France reduced emissions by an average of 15-20%, a significant amount. The most marked reduction in emissions occurs following Phase II of the EU ETS in 2008, though there is some evidence of emissions reductions occurring during Phase I (2005-2007). Further investigation provides evidence that while these emission reductions do not arise from reallocation within the firm there is some evidence that these reductions are, at least in part, the result of outsourcing carbon-intensive production.

We also discuss recent research investigating the relative intensity of knowledge spillovers in clean and dirty technologies. In addition, a recently published paper by one of the co-contributors and his coauthor shows that the EU ETS has increased low-carbon innovation among regulated firms as much as by as much, while not crowding out patenting for other technologies.

Together, these provide a robust basis for discussion of the impacts of carbon pricing, on emissions, economic performance and innovation by firms.
# Assessment of Allowance Mechanism in China's Carbon Trading Pilots

L. Xiong (1)

(1) Wuhan University, Institute for International Studies, Wuhan, Hubei, China

Due to its rapid economic expansion over the last decade, China has become the world's largest energy consumer and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitter. With growing resources and environmental constraints domestically and the need for meeting international commitment to GHGs abatement, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) launched a series of local carbon cap-and-trade pilots in seven provinces and cities including Shenzhen, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, and Hubei, each of which has started its operation between 2013 and 2014.

In this paper, we examines the allowance mechanism of China's pilots from two aspects, one is the allowance allocation, and the other is the allowance distribution and make comparisons in the two aspects with EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and CA CAT. Allocation determines how the carbon emission cap is allocated on the total number of emission allowances is set and how emission allowances are allocated among covered entities within the cap. Allowance distribution deals with distribution of allocated allowances to all covered entities as well as dynamic allowance management in post-distribution.

China's carbon trading pilots formed its unique allocation mechanism, which includes the following four characteristics: rigid cap combined with elastic structure, historical emissions method combined with benchmarking, free distribution combined with the auction, pre allocation combined with post adjustment. However, due to the short preparation time and lack of sufficient emissions data, there are many problems in the pilot design of the allocation mechanism, such as the loose cap, whipping the fast ox, double counting, and too small proportion of benchmarking and auction.

# Emission Trading Scheme and competiveness: the tricky equation of free allocation for the EU ETS through to 2030

E. Alberola (1) ; M. Jalard (1)

(1) CDC Climat, Research, Paris, France

One of the central debates surrounding the design of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is the approach to address carbon leakage concerns. In preparation of its phase 4, new design settings proposals of the European Commission in January 2014 have revived the debate. Based on the European Commission's communication on the 2030 Energy and Climate framework, in October 2014, the European Council approved a new target to reduce CO2 emissions by 43% in EU ETS sectors by 2030 in addition to the implementation of a market instrument for stability. These two measures are likely to induce the emergence of a more robust carbon price signal, and the Council committed to the continuation of free allocation for industry after 2020.

From 2005 to 2012, all installations were eligible for free allowances which were allocated using installations' historical CO2 emissions data. Since 2013, free allowances have been allocated according to EU harmonized rules on the basis of benchmarks (carbon intensity target) and historical production levels. These have been adjusted by a coefficient of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage and finally adjusted to the free allocation cap by a Cross Sectoral Correction Factor (CSCF). In this new context, the paper assesses the robustness of the expansion of the 2020 mechanism to define free allocations by 2030 regarding three criteria. Firstly, free allocations are assumed to mitigate carbon leakage risks efficiently and sustainably; secondly to minimize sectorial distortions; and thirdly to maintain the environmental and economic efficiency.

In a first section, based on a literature review and on estimations from industry data, the paper examines the phase III experiences which provide useful insight into

the necessary considerations for phase IV of the EU ETS. Then, in the second section, the paper presents three modeling scenario to define the amount of free allocation for the European industry: a scenario of the expansion of the 2020 mechanism by 2030, a scenario with the output based mechanism and three alternative scenarios based on the output based mechanism with additional measures to mitigate the uncertainty of an ex-post adjustment.

We conclude that, by extending the current mechanism, the amount of free allowances remains higher than the free allowance cap, which should mechanically decrease from roughly 800 million in 2013 to 500 million by 2030. It would thus be necessary to gradually reduce the amount of freely allocated allowances using a Cross Sectoral Correction Factor (CSCF) from 94% in 2013 to 82% by 2020 and 66% by 2030. The implementation of the output based allocation, based on actual industrial production (rather than historical), using a cap to date benchmarks in line with technological progress, would induce an annual correction coefficient of 71% in 2030. However, depending on the annual aggregate activity level, a new uncertainty would arise concerning the value of the CSCF coefficient. According to our estimates, this coefficient would be comprised between 62% and 82% in 2030, which would imply an uncertainty on the net carbon cost of the magnitude of 10% of the added value of the carbon sector and 6% for in the steel sector, under the assumption of a €30/tCO2 price.

There are three potential avenues which can be explored to mitigate this uncertainty and facilitate investment in low carbon technologies. Firstly, a reserve of free allowances could be established to offset yearly deficit / surplus between free allowances cap and the quantity of freely allocated allowances. Secondly, by avoiding the free allowances cap, the need to apply the correction factor is eliminated. However, this may reduce the amount of auctioned allowances, which was already decreased by the market stability reserve (MSR). Finally, the definition of a more targeted list of sectors at risk of carbon leakages could reduce the number of free allowances by identifying and gradually allocating allowances according to sectors exposure. This would deem it unnecessary to apply the correction factor, and therefore eliminate all associated uncertainty. The method of dynamic allocation combined with a more targeted list would thus be an adequate solution to the tricky equation of free allocation through to 2030.

# Energy market regulation and leakage: implications for industry

S. Weishaar (1)

(1) University of Groningen, Law and Economics, Groningen, Netherlands

Electricity markets are crucial for addressing climate change. Electricity generation accounts for vast amounts of greenhouse gas emissions and electricity costs are an important concern for industries and thus a prominent topic in leakage discussions. This contribution focuses on electricity leakage (the avoidance of emission costs when generating electricity through relocation or importation) and its implications for industry. Following a comparative economic and a legal analysis it highlights 1) the carbon pricing implications for industry in terms of incentives for innovation and investments and 2) compare different regulatory approaches in various emissions trading systems such as e.g. the EU ETS, RGGI, and Korea.

# Inclusion of Consumption in Carbon Pricing Systems

K. Neuhoff (1)

(1) German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin, Germany

Climate protection is a global challenge that all countries have a common but differentiated responsibility to address. The UNFCCC Lima outcome confirmed that pricing carbon remains important. However, not all governments are willing to commit to targets of equal stringency. Moreover, countries may have different views on the choice of policy mix. Some countries may put a stronger emphasis on the carbon price and see a higher