participation, but future flexible mechanism is under uncertainty, which lacks the necessary signals to stimulate investment in low-carbon technologies. Furthermore, financial resources to support technology transfer, such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and Green Climate Fund (GCF), have limited availability and the eligibility criteria for the Technology Mechanism is still unclear. Lastly, but not least, about 30 developing countries with a total population of 2 billion are projected to exceed the agreement for ODA eligibility over the period until 2030 due to their substantial economic growth, according to the OECD projection. These imply further efforts to involve private sector both in developed and developing economies are crucial.

The Technology Mechanism established in 2010 can be a potential platform to bring the UNFCCC process closer to the enabling framework for climate private sector investment. The Technology Executive Committee (TEC), together with the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), is mandated to facilitate the effective implementation of technology transfer. The CTCN strives to stimulate technology cooperation and to enhance climate technology development and transfer. CTCN operations are supposed to be conducted via partner institutions with expertise in climate technologies with an international network of university-industry-government members. Most public sector institutions, needs to involve more private firms that have technology solutions and financial sector, such as regional development bank, to harness more private sector investment. Secondly, the function of NDEs in developing countries needs to be expanded. The present role of NDEs is limited to a focal point to their technology needs to the CTCN, but it can be strengthened as a liaison between local technology needs and businesses opportunities by helping the national enabling environments that facilitate private investment. Finally, linkages between the Technology Mechanism and the Financial Mechanism of the Convention is necessary to provide grants to developing countries for the support of capacity building or adaptation technology, which are usually not covered by business activities. This item was negatively negotiated in COP20 but the parties were unable to reach a deal. It is discussed again in COP21. The link between the two mechanisms and an enhancement of the private sector involvement would be drivers of scaling up technology transfer.

Technology has rarely been transferred explicitly yet through this premature mechanism. Hence, I would propose three specific ideas to enhance the mechanism. First, the current network members are mostly public sector institutions, needs to involve more private firms that have technology solutions and financial sector, such as regional development bank, to harness more private sector investment. Secondly, the function of NDEs in developing countries needs to be expanded. The present role of NDEs is limited to a focal point to their technology needs to the CTCN, but it can be strengthened as a liaison between local technology needs and businesses opportunities by helping the national enabling environments that facilitate private investment. Finally, linkages between the Technology Mechanism and the Financial Mechanism of the Convention is necessary to provide grants to developing countries for the support of capacity building or adaptation technology, which are usually not covered by business activities. This item was negatively negotiated in COP20 but the parties were unable to reach a deal. It is discussed again in COP21. The link between the two mechanisms and an enhancement of the private sector involvement would be drivers of scaling up technology transfer.

P-3315-15

## University-Industry-Government Collaboration for Innovation to Tackle Sustainability Challenges: Functions and Mechanisms of Stakeholder Platforms on Smart Cities

M. Yarime (1)

(1) University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo, Japan

Many countries have introduced policies to encourage innovation through technology transfer academia to the private sector, often with exclusive agreements on intellectual property rights. While some successful cases have been reported in transforming knowledge created by university researchers into industrial products, the existing models of university-industry-government collaboration tend to focus on narrowly-defined technical issues, mainly targeted to commercial applications. For tackling sustainability challenges, a new approach would be required to promote innovation, involving a wider variety of stakeholders with more diverse knowledge and expertise in scientific and technological fields. Smart cities and communities are particularly considered to be one of the key areas in which a variety of science and technological knowledge need to be integrated effectively through collaboration among multiple actors. A smart city would involve an advanced technological system for efficient electricity supply and applications, incorporating all the behavior of the actors involved, including generators, distributors, technology developers, and consumers, through an intelligent information network. As a smart

city integrates a diverse mixture of hardware as well as software in a complex way, different approaches would be possible to introducing and implementing the concept of smart cities in practice, depending on the economic, social, and environmental conditions and purposes, such as energy efficiency, operating cost, environmental impact, resilience to external shocks and disturbances, and accessibility and inclusiveness to end users. Recently, leading research universities around the world have started to apply their expertise and sources of innovation to the goal of building smart cities and communities. In this paper, we examine approximately 80 cases of the leading initiatives led by universities through stakeholder platforms in Japan, Europe, and the United States. A particular focus is placed on smart cities and communities, involving relevant stakeholders in academia, industry, and the public sector. A close examination of the leading initiatives reveals the important functions of university-driven stakeholder platforms in implementing innovation to address societal challenges. These include the creation of future visions based on science, setting of concrete and practical goals and targets, joint scenario making with stakeholders, securing active participation and serious engagement of stakeholders, collection and analysis of data on societal needs and demands, development of new technologies and systems through social experimentation at universities as living laboratories, assessment of impacts with transparency, objectivity, neutrality, legitimization of innovation in society, provision of effective feedback to decision makers, incorporation into institutional design, and contribution to agenda setting at regional, national, and global levels. On the other hand, difference are also found with regard to the direction and process of technological development on smart cities and communities between Japan, Europe, and the United States. The Japanese approaches toperiaborate a strong focus on sophistication of application technologies for extensive use of home appliances and electric vehicles. In Europe an emphasis is placed on establishing a basic infrastructure in which information about the behavior of all the stakeholders is collected and distributed among the stakeholders appropriately so that the various objectives of the electricity grid are achieved in a more equitable way. In the United States a strong interest can be observed in creating and maintaining security through improvement in resilience against physical as well as virtual threats. These asymmetries in conceptualizing and implementing smart cities reflect the differences in how knowledge development, stakeholder networks, and institutional environment interact in dynamic and systemic manners. The cases highlighted in this paper provide valuable insights into potential ways forward for collaboratively designing and creating knowledge and implementing innovation. For future efforts and new projects in the future, however, we still need deal with remaining challenges, including how to navigate differing motivations and incentives for serious engagement and fruitful collaboration among stakeholders, to promote joint initiatives and networking that contribute to achieving desirable goals and targets and developing complementary skills and capacities, and to identify the factors and conditions required to promote their successful implementation.

P-3315-16

## Re-engineering a Flood Control in Jakarta as a capital city of Indonesia

SA. Yusuf (1)

(1) Universite Bordeaux1, Enterprise Engineering, Jakarta, Indonesia

Background: Without an integrated system and good infrastructure as well as lacks of feeling "sense of equality", these implies inconsistent in various aspects. The aversions of the government and company to invite along experts from Universities to optimize the system of flood control in Jakarta as capital city of Indonesia is also become an obstacle. However the need of research to solve these problems is urgently necessary, because now Jakarta attracts more investors from abroad and domestic where Jakarta is the center of all interests and decisions. Therefore a good infrastructure that guarantee safety, comfort and health can boost the condition by giving the effectiveness, efficiency and also its quality.

Project: The paper is done by following the estimation of design flood and the control for 3 months by observing several values for flood routing, flood mitigation, flood forecasting, drainage system, infrastructure, maintenance
of the assets, zoning by direct observation and some
interviews with officials of reservoir. The problem that
occurred is always every year and mostly in the same
place. Also the information that we get from the website
is non-interactive.

Problem and solution:

1. Rainwater that fell and the overflow of rainwater from the higher regions provinces can not be managed properly. For instance, it rained only 5 hours it could cause flooding in several locations. It needs urgently to designing flood protection measures. Hydrology of the catchment area, it meanshow to build up a design flood based on the knowledge of hydrology of the catchment area.

2. Storage reservoirs currently not functioning optimally and manually operated. Thereafter, this required to plan re-engineering structures, its schedule of operations, so that the flood cannot cause serious damage downstream.

3. Today flooding could come suddenly without early notification to residents and may causing loss of material and human life. Further as the floodwave

passes through a stream it is necessary to know how
the stage varies with respect to time and distance for
the design of river engineering works as well as for
issuance of flood warning by the civil authorities.

4. Current water pump system is not well integrated, electricity is not equipped with backup power, so if the power fails then the pump is can not use. It is need an installing pumping facilities which comes under drainage engineering and with integration system.

Conclusion:

With this current state, it is no wonder if Jakarta famous with the flood in every year. This must be repaired and done some innovations by cooperating with universities to conduct research and continuous improvement for a greater goal. Ensure operation and maintenance personnel are part of project planning and development process including developing criteria for the initial commissioning of the project and wherever possible, choose an easily maintained system. Knowledge is considered today to be one of the main assets of a company. Together company and university can try to develop new approaches and find answers to those challenges.

3316 - Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

0-3316-01

Demand-side solutions to mitigate climate change

F. Creutzig (1); N. Dubash (2); H. Helmut (3); Y. Mulugeta (4); K. Seto, (5); D. Urge-Vorsatz (6)

(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Land use, transport and infrastructures, Berlin, Germany; (2) Center for Policy Research, New Delhi, India; (3) Uni Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt, Austria; (4) University College London, Science, Technology, Engineering & Public Policy, London, United Kingdom; (5) Yale University, School of Forestry, New Haven, United States of America; (6) Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP), Central european university, Budapest, Hungary

The main emphasis in assessments on climate change
solutions has been on technologies and options
subjected to cost-benefit analysis. However, many
proposed mitigation solutions can hardly be squeezed
into such categories or assessed through such analytical
frameworks. Because of this mismatch such mitigation
options are systematically underrepresented in integrated
climate change mitigation analyses and assessments. To
counteract this bias, the paper emphasizes the importance
of these underreported mitigation options. First, the
paper reviews the literature and taxonomies on the
options available in the "mitigation space" and maps the
diversity of mitigation options. Then, it reviews the ty-
analytical frameworks that integrate mitigation options to
prepare climate-related decision-making, including their
strengths and shortcomings. The paper then synthesizes
examples of the underrepresented mitigation options
from different sectors mostly drawing on results from the
IPCC's AR5. The paper then reviews selected examples
of the underrepresented mitigation options from several
demand-side sectors. It calls for the need of complementary
analytical frameworks to cost-benefit analysis, and
suggests one based on evaluating political feasibility and
desirability of demand-side and infrastructure solutions
that interact with endogenous preference formation.
It observes that both 'hard' infrastructures, such as the
built environment, and 'soft' infrastructures, such as
social expectations, share behavior, and, in turn, offer
significant potential for mitigating overall energy demand.
The overall order of magnitude of mitigation potential
of these underrepresented options can be equal to those
of technologies. In contrast to the technological options,
their potential depends less on economic factors but more
on political will and social transformations.

O-3316-02

Show me the money (and the informa-
tion)! Durability driven uptake of efficient
lighting in a context of informality

A. Figueroa (1)

(1) German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für
Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany

Consumer-driven uptake of energy efficient lighting can make meaningful bottom-up and behaviour change driven contributions to address climate change challenges. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in 2005 lighting accounted for 2,650 TWh, equivalent to 19% of annual global electricity demand. This is equivalent to the power generated by all gas-fired power plants worldwide and results in annual emissions equal to 70% of world passenger vehicle emissions (IEA 2006; UNEP 2012).

Particularly among poor communities in developing countries where a light bulb is by far the most common household appliance, progress is needed to realise end-user uptake. Although light-emitting diodes (LEDs) may not always be available or affordable for these communities, compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) offer a cost competitive means of energy efficiency uptake. CFLs use up to 80% less power and offer co-benefits such as a longer lifespan and grid load reduction which can contribute to economic welfare and development pursuits. Yet despite these potential benefits, the uptake of CFL bulbs lags. Among 800 survey respondents with an existing electricity connection in Kibera, an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, only 20% have CFLs. What prevents the apparently economically rational purchase of CFLs and how might behaviour change contribute to increased uptake?

Field research in Kibera identified burdens and benefits of CFL adoption. This revealed that when power surges occur on the electrical grid serving Kibera, a majority of residents report that incandescent bulb bursts while CFLs withstand power surges. The relatively high number of power surges occurring on the grid translates to a payback period averaging six weeks, even in a context of non- or flat-rate electricity payment, common arrangements in informal settlements. However, behaviours such as a present-bias or limited self control along with quality assurance concerns such as the high presence of apparently poor performing counterfeit bulbs has reduced confidence and resulting market share for CFLs.

We employ a laboratory-in-the-field experiment (N=651) in Kibera to identify barriers and potential drivers of CFL purchase. Four elements form our research framework: a laboratory protocol testing psychological attributes; a household baseline survey evaluating demographics
and energy use; the application of a randomised control trial testing three potential drivers of CFL uptake, and household endline observation.

The treatments seek to test three hypothesised barriers to the uptake of CFL light bulbs: Awareness, liquidity, and commitment, by providing treatments anticipated to address each barrier. The awareness treatment seeks to increase the likelihood that consumers toward CFL purchase by providing information to address a perceived bias towards incandescent light bulbs. The liquidity treatment provides a subsidy to reduce the price of a CFL bulb to that of an incandescent. The commitment treatment provides a financial reward for committing to purchase a CFL and seeks to address potential barriers related to self-control by regulating this through a prior commitment. We employ a field purchase experiment that more realistically replicates the actual shopping environment that would be encountered.

The findings show that while the provision of liquidity for CFL purchase can positively impact uptake, this is more than tripled by the additional provision of salient information demonstrating the durability of CFL bulbs in comparison to incandescent bulbs. This finding is relevant for the design of behaviour-informed energy efficiency initiatives in developing countries. It demonstrates the potential "pull" of non-monetary and behavioural instruments in energy efficient lighting uptake in a context of poverty, extending the traditional focus of behaviour and energy efficiency beyond developed countries.

### Bibliography

International Energy Agency (2006): "Light's Labour Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting, in Support of the G8 Plan of Action." Paris: International Energy Agency / OECD.

Thaler / Sunstein (2008): Nudge: Improving decision about health, wealth, and happiness. Penguin: New York.

UNEP (2012): Achieving the Global Transition to Energy Efficient Lighting Toolkit.

Vohs, K. (2013): The poor's poor mental power, in: Science, 341: 969-970.

## O-3316-03

### Perceived climate variability and water scarcity: stress experiences and survivalist responses in water resources management in Cameroon

EM. Fomba (1); TM. Noukeu (2)

(1) University of Dschang, PPS-Psychology, Dschang, Cameroon; (2) University of Dschang, Former student, pps-psychology, Dschang, Cameroon

Despite the integration of many factors, climate variability has been recognised for degrading fresh water resources, destabilising human behaviours and activities; drawing in behavioural intervention as an indispensable dimension of integrated water resources management. Positioning water at the centre of human life and activities the paper rehashes the findings of the 2008 paper, least understood dimension of global change, climate variability and accompanying risks such as water related stress, thereby undermining human factors in management options and survivalist behaviours of local people. It asserts that emerging strategies in natural resources management drawn from climate variability have embraced people-centre models as core strategic values in sustainable water resources management with increased role of human factors in understanding the physical and social dimensions of water, and inhibitors of effective outcomes in physical water systems. In context, increased recognition and focus on the human factor in climate variability, water crisis, stress experiences and response measures are evidenced by the critical role of human behaviours. While crisis relating to water resources management has been generally approached from physical science perspectives, the paper upholds that water management is a psychological problem, and human behaviour can provide significant insights into the antecedents and consequences of water crisis. Also, it submits that the inclusion of behavioural sciences is a prerequisite to linking the physical sciences to the broader social context while promoting water conservation behaviours capable of stress aversion. The present study investigated perceived climate variability, water scarcity and adaptive strategies of local people. A sample of

254 participants (52.4%) males, average age 28.39, (SD, 9.08), were drawn from Bangangte, Cameroon. A self-report questionnaire with significant internal consistency was used to collect data, and descriptive and inferential statistics used for analysis. Results revealed significant relationships among study variables, except for perceived water scarcity and stress experiences, suggesting the relevance of a behavioural framework in the analysis of climate variability and sustainable use and management of water resources. Also, the relationship between perceived climate variability and water scarcity was significant, while perceived water scarcity and stress experiences were insignificant. Regression analysis confirmed perceived climate variability, water shortage and stress as significant predictors of adaptive responses and mitigation behaviors. Apart from perception of water crisis, t-test analysis showed no significant gender differences for stress level, adaptive and mitigating behaviours. From analysis, the human-centre model constitutes a pathway toward sustainable water management capable of promoting adaptive competences, strategies and actions. While the study has implications for policy, research and practice, it strongly advocates the integration of behavioral science mechanisms in addressing climate variability and natural resources management dominated by physical sciences in an anxiety-provoking era of global change.

## O-3316-04

### Motivation to engage in sustainable behaviour

L. Steg (1)

(1) University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands

Contribution to session no. 3316 (convened by Dr Sabine Pahl)

Sustainable development implies a future in which both environmental quality and human well-being are secured. Yet, sustainable behaviour is often believed to be less attractive (e.g., more expensive, time consuming, effortful), which may inhibit sustainable choices as this may threaten individual well-being. Despite this, many people do engage in sustainable actions. Why are they willing to do so? I will argue that values are a key motivating factor in this respect. I will elaborate on which values are likely to promote or inhibit sustainable actions. Notably, hedonic values that make people focus on what makes them feel good, and egoistic values that make them focus on how to increase their resources often inhibit sustainable behaviour, particularly if such behaviour is costly or effortful. Both reflect self-enhancement values. In contrast, altruistic values that make people focus on ways to benefit others, and biospheric values that make people focus on benefiting nature and the environment generally promote sustainable behaviour; both reflect self-transcendence values. Next, I indicate via which processes values affect sustainable behaviour. More specifically, I will illustrate that values affect which behaviour consequences people find important, and how they evaluate behavioural consequences given the implications of the relevant behaviour for their important values. Moreover, values affect the activation of personal norms, that is, feelings of moral obligation to engage in sustainable behaviour, that in turn affect the likelihood of such behaviour. Also, engaging in sustainable actions make people good, and people may anticipate such positive feelings elicited by doing the right thing, which may promote sustainable behaviour. Finally, I will discuss factors that may activate or deactivate values, thereby affecting the likelihood that the relevant values steer sustainable choices in a given situation. Values can be activated by value-related cues, costs of sustainable behaviour, and situational cues that reflect that other people respected or disrespected norms, and acted upon their self-enhancement rather than their self-transcendence values.

## O-3316-05

### Behaviour change or lifestyle change? Evidence and prospects for behavioural 'spillover'

L. Whitmarsh (1)

(1) Cardiff University, School of Psychology, Cardiff, United Kingdom

Contribution to session no. 3316 (convened by Dr Sabine Pahl)
Stimulating climate aware behavior among
young people in Austria

S. Chiari (1) ; S. Mandl (1) ; S. Voeller (2) ; A. Corner (3) ; O. Roberts (3)

(1) Austrian Institute for Sustainable Development, Vienna, Austria; (2) Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria; (3) Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN), Oxford, United Kingdom

Given the latest scientific observations regarding global warming, there is an urgent need to enhance the outreach of climate change communication efforts in order to mainstream low carbon lifestyles (APCC 2014). This is specifically relevant for young people, as their future is most affected by the consequences of global warming. It is evident that the predominantly negative communication of climate change – including catastrophic imagery – simply does not positively engage (young) people in low carbon behavior (O'Neill & Nicholson-Cole 2009, Hibberd & Nguyen 2013). The ongoing research project AUTreach (funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund) aims to enhance the outreach of climate communication in Austria towards young people by shifting the focus of climate communication towards environmental, personal and social benefits of climate-aware behavior, as well as towards desirable solutions for young people's daily lives. It focusses on whether and how such alternative ways of communicating climate change issues – e.g. positive framing of messages and choosing communication formats relevant to the young's needs and habits – can catalyse low carbon behavior among young people.

The project is coordinated in a transdisciplinary manner, actively involving young people and climate change communicators e.g. scientists, NGO's, lecturers, teachers, policy makers. As a first step, an extensive literature review and a quantitative online survey among young Austrians were conducted to evaluate young people's level of awareness, knowledge and engagement regarding climate change and low carbon behavior. Secondly, several workshops with young people were carried out to test possible stimulating effects of different communication formats. In these workshops also good-practice formats, which have been nominated by stakeholders before, were tested. Thirdly, three events that aimed to trigger climate engagement among this audience ("Encourage sustainability / lecture, "Earthtalks"/ annual evening event, "UN climate reporter / social simulation") were evaluated in a qualitative ex-post analysis, interviewing young participants one month after the events.

In light of the conclusions of the literature review (Corner et al., submitted), and the findings of the online survey, a list of youth-specific success factors for climate communication has been derived. These success factors were further revised and supplemented by the results of the workshops and the (ongoing) ex-post evaluation. The following criteria have been identified as key in fostering behavioural change among young people through climate communication:

* frame message-content based on the values most relevant to young people

* phrase clear messages using the target group's language

* stress & strengthen perceived self-efficacy of young people

* provide concrete solutions applicable & relevant to young people's daily lives

* use formats that include social interaction & fun

* consider visual design & possible incentives

The wide spectrum of project results will be summarized concisely for stakeholders by creating an online toolbox to support them in developing youth-oriented climate communication formats. The toolbox will be co-created with young people in a one day workshop towards the end of the project and be presented in a final stakeholder workshop facilitated by young people.

There is increasing acknowledgment that profound changes to individual behaviour are required in order to tackle climate change, and yet policies to achieve these changes have so far met with limited success. Most people are willing to make only very small changes to their lifestyle – so match the ways of encouraging green behaviour which can make the scale of the climate change challenge are needed. The UK government and several psychologists have suggested behavioural 'spillover' might be a way to achieve this. Spillover is the notion that taking up one green behaviour (e.g. recycling), can lead on to other green behaviours (e.g., taking your own bags shopping). Ultimately, this might hold the key to moving beyond piecemeal behaviour change to achieving more ambitious, holistic lifestyle change. This talk will present initial work to explore when spillover does, does not, and could, occur using correlational and experimental data. First, factor analysis of UK survey data (N=55) will be presented, exploring the relationship between green behaviours that co-occur, potentially indicating spillover between actions similar in difficulty and/or location. This study exposes how consistent individuals are in their behaviour and which factors (e.g., identity) might underlie spillover; it also provides some insight into which behaviours might act as 'catalyst' behaviours to trigger spillover to similar actions. Next two studies are presented which focus on the potential for specific behaviours and carrier bag reuse – to trigger behavioural spillover. Analysis of survey data (N=736) of Welsh homeowners' adoption of energy efficiency measures shows that those who adopt home insulation are significantly more likely to undertake other energy saving measures (e.g., turning down thermostats) in the home. This relationship holds when controlling for environmental values, suggesting behavioural spillover may be occurring in this context. Finally, a field experiment at the Welsh carrier bag change, which presented a reward for finding a waste bin, does not lead to behavioural spillover to similar (waste-related) pro-environmental behaviours. These divergent findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in facilitating pro-environmental behaviour and behavioural spillover, and a need to understand the mechanism underlying spillover. Ongoing lab experiments to induce behavioural spillover and thereby expose this underlying mechanism will briefly be discussed, along with implications for policy and practice.

Global middle classes and their carbon
footprints

F. Reussig (1) ; A. Garg (2)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam, Brandenburg, France; (2) Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Public systems group, Ahmedabad, India

While many climate change scholars from the social sciences (including economics) have paid attention to the GHG emissions contribution of different countries (including average per capita incomes and per capita emissions), we do know much less on emissions by individuals worldwide (regardless of country). But the development of the former (e.g. measured in average GDP) and the latter are linked: the richer countries get on average, the higher the income inequality, and the larger the portion of people that move from the national poor to the national middle classes. Currently, this is particularly the case in rapidly developing countries such as India and China.

We will present estimates of individual income by class, and of the respective carbon footprints by class. Our main reference points are Germany, the US, and India. Our basis with respect to income distribution worldwide will be the work of Xavier Sala-I-Martin and Thomas Piketty on the one hand, and economics on the other. The assessment of class-specific individual footprints will be based by nation-specific carbon footprint assessments and calculators.

Our results will show that while individuals from the developing world are still responsible for the vast majority of GHG emissions, upper and upper middle classes in some rapidly developing countries have now entered the global 'responsibility space', i.e. emit above per capita world average. We will discuss the implications of these findings both for national and for international climate policies.
APCC (2014): *Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14) - Summary for Policymakers and Synthesis.*
Austrian Panel on Climate Change, 95.

Corner, A., Roberts, O., Chiari, S., Völler, S., Mayrhuber, E.,
Mandi, S., Monson, K. (submitted): How do young people
engage with climate change? Submitted to WIREs Climate
change.

Hibberd, M., Nguyen, A. (2013): Climate change
communications and young people in the Kingdom.
International Journal of Media and Cultural Politics 9(1),
27-46.

O'Neill, S. & Nicholson-Cole, S. (2009): "Fear Won't Do It.
Promoting Positive Engagement with Climate Change
Through Visual and Iconic Representations." *Science
Communication*, 30,3. 355-379.

P-3316-02

Addressing the behavioural gap in energy/
economy models: Outcomes of the BE4
Workshop and outlook for the state-of-the-
art

H. Daly (1)

(1) UCL Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom

Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) simulate long-term least-cost energy system trajectories with high technology resolution, and are frequently used to better understand the trade-offs of sustainable technology transition possibilities for the future energy system. ESOMs are commonly used to portray the whole energy system, depicting energy technologies at every stage in the fuel supply chain, from fuel extraction to final end-use. These models are heavily used in national decision-making and have been influential in the design of low-carbon policies, and so bare a burden of responsibility in realistically depicting energy system dynamics.

Whole-system energy modelling approaches have been successful at capturing the technological complexity and economic feedbacks of the energy system, and are used as integrating frameworks to explore the trade-offs in climate mitigation, fuel poverty and energy security priorities. However, building sustainable energy systems requires a focus on behaviour, along with technological development: Behaviour plays a major role in the uptake and use of energy technologies, in driving energy service demand, and its treatment cannot be excluded from the analysis of long-term energy transitions. Researchers are increasingly looking to integrate insights across disciplines to increase the behavioural reach of ESOMs and include mitigation opportunities from behaviour change, along with technological and fuel solutions, in these highly influential models.

This contribution will address the growing priority of better
representing behaviour in energy modelling approaches
by bringing to the wider mitigation modelling community
outcomes from the International BE4 Workshop, which is to
be held on April 20th and 21st, 2015, at University College
London*. BE4 will bring together for the first time energy
system researchers with expertise and interest in representing
behaviour in energy/economy/engineering/environment (E4)
models, aiming to develop a common understanding of the
state-of-the-art in this emerging field, to identify knowledge
gaps, and for the community to gain exposure to research in
other fields which has successfully integrated behaviour into
other modelling approaches. The workshop will have high-
profile speakers and sessions describing state-of-the-art
research. BE4 is funded by IEA-ETSAP, a consortium of teams
led by the IEA that actively cooperate to establish, maintain,
and expand E4 model capacity, and WholeSEM, a consortium
which plays an underpinning role for the UK's national
strategic energy modelling activity.

BE4, and this presentation, will address the following themes:

* Heterogeneity in the population;

* Hidden costs in decision-making;

* Non-cost-optimal decision frameworks;

* Discrete choice analysis in whole-system approaches;

* Agent based modelling approaches;

* Integration of social sciences with E4 modelling.

Arising from this workshop, this conference contribution will review the challenges that face integrated energy and mitigation planning tools across temporal and spacial scales.

*<http://www.wholesem.ac.uk/wholesem-events-repository/be4-workshop>

P-3316-03

Energy efficiency and behavioural change
in Uganda's small-scale industry

B. Never (1)

(1) German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für
Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany

Energy efficiency counts as a low-hanging fruit in the
combat against climate change and the transformation
towards a low-carbon future. Investments in energy
efficient technologies and the uptake of energy
management practices offer a lot of benefits to industries
in developing countries, but these are often not reaped.
This so called energy efficiency gap exists in Uganda as
much as elsewhere. Small-scale enterprises particularly
surrogate with the closure of this gap due to a combination
of financial, organizational and informational barriers, as
different studies have shown. This contribution will show
that there is also a behavioural story to be told. Removing
behavioural barriers and using psychological insights to
design tailored policy packages belongs in the climate
mitigation toolbox as much as in the development toolbox.

This contribution takes an innovative interdisciplinary approach combining development economics, behavioural sciences and environmental psychology to analyse the behavioural drivers and barriers of energy management in Ugandan micro- and small enterprises. The paper is an empirical contribution that draws on 45 on semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions conducted in Eastern Uganda in April 2014.

The main findings are that behavioural barriers impeding energy efficiency contribute to the limited performance of these enterprises, the cognitive focus on and preference for short-term benefits, habits and a status quo bias as well as a lack of trust impede the uptake of energy efficient technology and energy saving business practices by the MSEs. It has become clear that those entrepreneurs who have started to manage the electricity consumption of their business were supported by direct, first-hand experience with energy efficient technology and practices, followed implementation intentions taken at energy training workshops and benefited from social learning, i.e. from other, similar businesses serving as role models. The possibilities for social learning among the entrepreneurs interviewed are limited by competitiveness thinking and mistrust; at least as long as the entrepreneurs could not actually see for themselves what positive impact energy efficiency has on a neighbouring business. While the qualitative approach to this study does not allow for larger generalizations, the findings indicate a positive effect of changing energy management behaviour on business development and performance, if context conditions such as sufficient business skills and market access are provided for. Strong behavioural drivers are likely to be conducive to energy management and enterprise performance, while the strength of strong behavioural barriers positively impacts performance. Thus, supporting behavioural change in small-scale industries can have positive effects for mitigating climate change, economic growth and development.

P-3316-04

Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change

S. Pahl (1) ; A. Pegels (2) ; Y. Mulugetta (3)

(1) Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth, Devon,
United Kingdom; (2) German Development Institute /
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Sustainable
economic and social development, Bonn, Germany; (3)
University College London, Science, Technology, Engineering
& Public Policy, London, United Kingdom

Human choices and behaviour play a crucial role in
climate change. "Human beings are the cause of the
transformation, and only action by human beings can save
with more people (social multiplication) and associated with stronger intentions and actions, when they were tailored and personal to people's own home, compared to images that showed a typical home. But seeing any thermal image (whether personal or typical) led to better memory and higher behavioural intentions, compared to text only. Finally, an update will be given on an ongoing study that tests the power of thermal images as a communication tool with 6,000 householders invited to take part in a home improvement programme. This study compares the effect of thermal images that visualise the problem ('before') with thermal images that visualise the problem together with a solution ('before' - 'after'), and with a control group that does not see any images. Limitations and challenges of this applied interdisciplinary research will be discussed briefly. The potential for thermal imaging visualisation in other contexts will be highlighted. In conclusion, thermal images seem capable of overcoming the invisibility of energy said to be a barrier to behaviour change.

P-3316-06

## The Environment and Data: Using Quantitative Data and Methodology to Encourage Environmental Civic Responsibility

### M. Perks (1)

(1) Concordia University, Sociology & Anthropology, Montreal, QC, Canada

This paper analyzes the innovative potential of working with the Households and Environment Survey, run biennially by Statistics Canada, while proposing new instruments of measurement using this nation-wide data. Previous research has focused on small geographic areas and not in nation-wide contexts. In addition to this, the focus of research has moved to more theoretical and/or used qualitative methods. While this work has been critical to scholarly understanding of the situation and conceptualization regarding eco-citizenship, it has mainly dismissed the vast amount of aggregate data available to researchers.

This paper considers emergent innovations regarding the ways in which the might incorporate this data, as well as new quantitative methods and instruments to environmental sociology. The data available provides a unique opportunity to create and implement an index for the analysis of our current situation regarding Canadian participation in behaviours indicative of eco-citizenship. This research will subsequently allow me to develop further instruments and tools to build upon scholarly understanding of eco-citizenship at nation-wide and global levels.

This paper will also create a framework that could be developed for use in other countries, generating new information on the status of eco-citizenship. The author looks into the civic responsibility and governance issues surrounding the use of highly statistical, government collected data and exercising what may seem to be a top-down authoritative approach compared to usual environmental approaches emphasizing horizontal authority. While initially problematic, the author believes that it is not the use of data that defines this action but how that data is used. Therefore, what is being exercised is not responsibility through statistics, but an engagement in environmental civic responsibility to bring citizens and communities into the knowledge and process.

P-3316-07

## Mobility choices and climate change: which incentives are effective?

### C. Raux (1)

(1) University of Lyon, Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports, Lyon, France

Transport generated 22 per cent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the world in 2011 with three-quarters due to road transport and a continuous increase at least since 1990. There is a majority consensus among climate scientists and economists on a need for a sharp reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades. Regarding transport it is recognized that improvements in the use of energy efficiency will not be sufficient in the coming decades and that behavioral changes are also needed, such as shifting from individual

the world from its worst impacts" (US Secretary of State John Kerry, Sept 27, 2013). This session explores how on researches and behaviour can facilitate interdisciplinary, integrative responses to climate change. Talks will draw on social science theories and present novel data that contribute to three types of solutions: Better engagement with the public, interventions that change behaviour, and policy responses. The explicit aim of our session is to go beyond technological and market solutions and focus on behaviour change solutions. Considerable though not exclusive focus of this session will be on energy efficiency and savings, offering solutions for the double challenge of climate change mitigation and development. The IEA estimates that 18 per cent of the global population lack access to electricity. At the same time, the energy sector accounted for over 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions overall have grown between 2000 and 2010 than in the previous three decades. Addressing carbon emissions not only reforming the energy system will be vital for limiting global warming but poses different challenges for industrialised and developing countries. While technological innovation and carbon prize mechanisms will play a major role in transitioning towards a low emissions economy, it is questionable whether this technological and market frame is sufficient to realise this transition. Human decisions, behaviours and broader lifestyles are key to achieving a meaningful, acceptable and inclusive transition. Only taking a "people-focused" perspective will provide a buffer against market failures such as risk, imperfect information, hidden costs, access to capital, and split incentives. Contributions will discuss the key factors that contribute to behaviour change by presenting the results of empirical studies (e.g., interventions) and whether specific behaviours can "spill" over to other domains. We will also consider whether a behaviour change approach is relevant to climate change. Addressing carbon emissions and 'locked-in' lifestyles. This session will bring together social scientists including economists and psychologists, scientists, engineers and policy makers to explore the potential of behavioural, choice and lifestyle solutions to addressing climate change. The session finishes with our team working with three specialists in global environmental change. Michael Depléput (Professor of Environment and Health, University of Exeter, UK) will lead this discussion, drawing on his experience as advisor to the United Nations and the European Commission. Together we will sketch a map illustrating how social science theories and data might be used to enhance our responses to climate change and foster sustainable lifestyles. Six speakers are planned with 10 minutes for each presentation, plus a poster session and a panel discussion at the end.

P-3316-05

## Behaviour change for household energy use: The example of visualising heat loss through thermal imaging

S. Pahl (1); C. Boomsma, (1); J. Goodhew, (1)

(1) Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom

Energy use plays an important role in climate change and is linked to issues of energy security and fuel poverty. Householders in particular play a key role in energy conservation through the decisions they make about purchases and installations such as insulation, and through their habitual behaviour. However, energy has been described as abstract and intangible thus making it difficult for individuals to relate to in a meaningful way and know the best actions to take. In this paper, project summarises a programme of work that visualises household energy in order to encourage behaviour change and reduce carbon emissions related to the home. The visualisation tool is "thermal imaging" which makes the invisible visible by using infrared photography. Thermal images demonstrate how heat escapes and cold air enters the home. In Study 1, householders, who received a thermal image of their own home, reduced their energy use by nearly 5 times more likely to install draught proofing measures after seeing a thermal image of their home. The effect was especially pronounced for actions that addressed an issue visible in the images. A third study explored the level of tailoring that is needed to change household intentions and behaviour. Thermal images were shared
to public transportation or lower-emission modes per passenger-km or even reducing kilometers travelled.

Regarding behavioral changes, carbon taxes and vehicle taxes are advocated by economists as the most cost-effective instruments. Variants of economic incentives like personal carbon trading have also been proposed. Their roots can be found in the economic literature initially as a combination of carbon tax and quantity control, namely marketable or tradable Permits. Due to the specific nature of tradable permits applied to personal consumption of fuel, potential supplementary outcomes when compared to a carbon tax are expected on psychological grounds rather than economic ones. One effect might come from making carbon visible at the end-user level, with a carbon account delivering frequent feedback on travel behavior (i.e. "carbon budgeting"). Another effect could come from the social norm associated with a personal allowance fixed within the frame of a public policy.

By the means of a series of discrete choice experiments in a transport choice context we estimate and compare the impacts of economic and psychological incentives in motivating environmentally responsible mobility behavior.

In a first experiment the potential effectiveness of personal carbon trading (PCT) in changing car travel behavior was compared to the conventional carbon tax (CT) by means of a stated preferences survey conducted among French drivers (N~300). We show evidence that PCT could effectively change travel behavior and hence reduce transport emissions from personal travel. There is however a definite reluctance to reduce car travel. We were unable to demonstrate any significant difference between the effectiveness of PCT and the CT with regard to changing travel behavior. However, in the experiment, the PCT scheme provided consistent results while this was not the case for the CT scheme. This was an indication of a potential "social norm" effect conveyed by a personal emissions allowance.

In the second series of experiments we explored the trade-off between travel price and travel time on 900 participants, while introducing in a controlled setting various effects such as information on CO2 emissions, injunctive and descriptive social norms, and fiscal incentives such as a carbon tax, a bonus-malus and a carbon trading scheme. By "framing" we mean the ways of presenting a choice based initially on objective economic properties (here the trade-off between travel price and travel time) that do change psychological aspects (information on CO2 emissions, injunctive and descriptive social norms) and sometimes economic aspects by imposing fiscal incentives (tax, quotas and bonus-malus).

Statistical evidence shows that providing CO2 information on emissions is highly effective and the injunctive norm reinforces this effect in the case of air and train. A quota scheme reinforces the injunctive norm effect in the case of these two modes. More strikingly, the amount of the financial sanction or reward has no effect on the probability of using the various travel modes, unlike the presence of the fiscal framing itself.

There are some policy implications of such results. First they confirm and reinforce the case for using

psychologically positive framing effects in promoting effective pro-environmental behavior in transport choices. Providing basic CO2 emissions information on each travel alternative is likely to yield actual behavior changes. Normative messages through benchmarking (bonus-malus) or carbon budgeting (quotas) may reinforce the incentive especially for larger emitting modes. The amount of the financial (dis)incentive in itself might not matter regarding the effect on behavior change.

## P-3316-08

### Co-design of a place-based educational videogame on climate change: Future Delta 2.0

S. Sheppard (1)

(1) CALP, Vancouver, Canada

Contribution to session no. 3316 (convened by Dr. Sabine Pahl)

This presentation describes a co-creation and evaluation process for a community-based interactive educational videogame on local climate change solutions, developed for a case study in the coastal municipality of Delta, British Columbia, Canada.

This project uses video gaming to enable interactive exploration of local climate change threats and solutions in a real place. Delta faces challenges such as sea level rise, agricultural decline, heat-waves, and growth fuelled in part by environmental refugees. The project builds on the Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) team's earlier research in Delta, collaborating with various levels of government and multiple stakeholders, and demonstrating the power of science-based visualizations in raising awareness and motivation on climate change. The aim is to make climate change science and solutions more salient and creative, in a way that conventional educational methods often fail to achieve. The videogame will allow players to visualize what their own future might look like, and explore a variety of tough choices that citizens of Delta may need to make.

Taking advantage of earlier Future Delta videogame prototypes, the co-design phase focuses on local high-schools, in partnership with Delta School district. The game design borrows from commercial videogame techniques in order to provide a compelling virtual environment for: i) place-based learning in geography and science classes, and ii) student engagement on local climate change realities, collective action and policies for adaptation and mitigation. Teachers and students will design the game collaboratively with researchers, through an iterative process of focus groups and gameplay sessions. Participants provide input on integration of class/curriculum learning objectives, the fun of game play, and storyline ideas reflecting local themes and identity.

The presentation will report on the co-design process and preliminary evaluation results on input from students, teachers, families and friends, shedding new light on responses to climate change impacts and choices in a videogame environment.

# 3317 - Mainstreaming low carbon consumption: challenges and opportunities

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3317-01

#### Low carbon living and energy demand as a shared social problem: from the little to the big

G. Walker

Bringing low carbon into being evidently means far more than innovating only in technological terms. Co-evolving social change is also necessary, on a scale that extends beyond those people that are already committed, beyond individual attitudes and behaviours, to the truly

collective, societal and structural. In this paper I consider the implications in terms of both how we understand the nature of much of the energy consumption that makes up the carbon burden of contemporary living, the challenges involved in achieving 'preferred' forms of low carbon social change (in both energy and social justice terms) and ways of political articulating of what is at stake in governance terms. I will draw on recent research projects focused on the relation between social practice (shared forms of everyday living at home, at work and in moving around) and energy demand, including work on the spread of air conditioning, the mainstreaming of zero carbon homes, energy use in the living spaces of older people and flexibility in the temporal patterns and rhythms of daily energy demand
# Daily innovations, social practices and sustainable consumption - Some insights from real life

S. Douzou (1)

(1) EDF, Research and development, Clamart, France

Daily innovations aiming at reducing CO2 emissions and energy consumption constitute the cornerstone of most of scenarios and visions of the future underpinning climate change mitigation related policies and options for the residential sector. Not without reasons, the ambitious targets claimed may necessarily be achieved partly thanks to the integration of a sophisticated set of socio-technical eventual innovations. Under certain conditions however. Provided that such projections of the future will be actually performed, incorporated and eventually mainstreamed in a given real social context. This communication will stress on the "reception" and appropriation processes of such visions to be better understood and such processes related to "real" conditions of innovations insertion/co-evolution. Based on selected case and field studies we will show that these are indeed deeply anchored in a particular historical, social and evolving context of a given Society and, as such, that Home Energy related innovations are hybrid and co-shaped devices resulting from an of an intertwined process of innovation and social incorporation. By nature this process is dynamic, multi-scale and multi-players. After questioning the way most current policies and measures are formulated, as well as their main underlying assumptions illustrated by such notions as "public acceptance" or "social acceptability", we will pledge for a move towards broader and more suitable concepts. We will use some key-notions mainly derived from practice-based theory as applied to energy field, in order to develop concretely our argument through concrete and socially contextualise field studies. We will finally open up the discussion about how we could (should?) think and found differently Energy related policies in order to make them more efficient and impactful.

# International Consultation on Consumption Patterns for Sustainable Development

CRSM. Souza (1); M. Poppe, (2); ACF. Galvão, (3)

(1) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable development, Brasília - DF, Brazil; (2) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable development, Brasília - DF, Brazil; (3) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Brasília - DF, Brazil

The current debate on the post-2015 development agenda and the sustainable development goals leads to a discussion of crucial points related to the definition of pathways for sustainable development, which must take into consideration how citizens, businesses and governments consume and how such patterns of consumption can be changed. With this in mind, the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE) in cooperation with the Akatu Institute for Conscious Consumption, the Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS), the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), the Institute of Research and Development (IRD), the Swedish Agency for Growth Analysis, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for Sustainable Development (Rio+ Centre) organized the present international web-based consultation on consumption patterns for sustainable development. The consultation was addressed to a select group of people from academia, government, civil society and business sectors.

Agenda 21, adopted in 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio 92) stated that "the major cause of the continued deterioration of the global environment is the unsustainable pattern of consumption and production" and recommended "a multipronged strategy focused on demand, meeting the basic needs of the poor and reducing wastage and the use of finite resources in the production process". In 2012, world leaders once again met in Rio de Janeiro to attend the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development

(Rio+20). The conference outcome document, «The Future We Want», reaffirmed the commitment to fully implement Agenda 21 and called for the construction of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to go beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and frame the path to sustainable development.

The survey intends to contribute to the ongoing international negotiations for the definition of the SDGs at the United Nations. This process represents an important stepping-stone towards the creation of a global model for sustainable development. It should engage and establish commitments for both developed and developing countries, as well as balance the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, including the challenges presented by a changing climate. Therefore, the objective of the consultation is to map out society's perceptions on issues pertaining to consumption patterns in the context of sustainable development and climate change to enable a comparison of the different views, as well as to identify commonalities, in order to help bridge knowledge and information gaps that may arise in the negotiation of the SDGs and of a new international treaty on climate change in 2015.

# Mainstreaming low-carbon consumption: Opportunities, challenges and promising policy approaches

B. Girod (1)

(1) Group for Technology and Sustainability, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Consumption-oriented climate mitigation approaches account for all emissions caused by regional consumption (including imported goods), while production-oriented approaches account for all emissions attributable to regional production (including exported goods). Although currently the production-oriented approach is predominantly applied in climate policy, the consumption-oriented approach offers several advantages. These include lower carbon leakage and reduced economic competitiveness concerns over the relocation of carbon-intensive production regions without changing mitigation requirements. However addressing emissions via consumption also comes with several new challenges. Policies aiming at radical changes in consumption patterns or reduction of consumption levels suffer from low public acceptance. The consumption-oriented policies with the highest acceptance are those that favour changes in consumption choices towards low-carbon products such as electric cars, net zero energy buildings or sustainably produced food. These policies still face three major challenges: First, they have to account for increasing consumption levels (rebound effects). Second, emissions embodied in the products (life-cycle emissions) need to be considered. Finally, the choice of policy instruments is limited by the path dependence of policymaking as well as the feasibility and public acceptance of the different instruments.

To address these challenges, a policy framework is developed that indicates how the carbon intensity of consumption could be reduced in line with the international climate target. The framework shows how the 2 degree climate target can be translated into carbon intensity targets for products. Comparing these targets with existing low-carbon products indicates that products in line with the required emissions reductions for 2050 are available for the main consumption categories (food, shelter, mobility, goods and services). Hence, to achieve the carbon intensity targets on the product level, the timely diffusion of existing low-carbon options is key. The framework therefore also describes how such carbon intensity targets can be achieved by describing the stylized development of consumption-oriented policies that were successfully implemented in the past. These include policies for infrastructure investments in carbon-carrying cars, energy efficiency buildings and appliances as well as sustainable timber products in the European Union. Learning from these policy experiences suggests that successful policy development is a stepwise process towards increasingly stringent standards. The stepwise increase in stringency typically starts with voluntary and information measures. Public procurement and financial incentives contribute to further diffusion of the low-carbon products. This provides the basis for introducing binding standards, which are then regularly tightened. Once established, standards can
also be extended to include additional products and may become more comprehensive (e.g. also include other life-cycle emissions).

The framework helps guide future policymaking and allows the identification of the type of scientific research and policy support required to extend and improve consumption-oriented climate mitigation policy. While in the area of meat consumption, the air travel the development of low-carbon innovations is necessary to provide low-carbon consumption options, most other consumption areas call for the mainstreaming of existing low-carbon options. Thus it is essential to achieve a better understanding of how to accelerate the development towards low-carbon standards for all consumption categories. International climate policy can foster this development by supporting the harmonization of carbon footprint norms for products. This will help to guide low carbon consumption, enhance conformity with international trade and facilitate the extension to embodied emissions of existing consumption-oriented climate policy.

### O-3317-04

#### Carbon emission mitigation by Consumption-based Accounting and Policy

A. Tukker (1); D. Crawford-Brown (2); E. Van Der Voet (3); R. Wood (4); A. Anger (5)

(1) TNO, Strategy and policy, Delft, Netherlands; (2) University of Cambridge, Cambridge centre for climate change mitigation research, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) Leiden University, Cml, Leiden, Netherlands; (4) NTNU, Trondheim, Norway; (5) CE, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Carbon emission mitigation by Consumption-based Accounting and Policy (Carbon-CAP)

Current climate policies are mainly shaped via territorial emission reduction approaches. Yet, growing consumption is a main driver behind rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Further, our economy is increasingly a single, global economy: international trade has risen threefold since 1990 implying pollution embodied in trade is now responsible for a significant part of total GHG emissions. Complementing territorial mitigation approaches with policies from a consumption oriented perspective hence can have added value. They can explicitly address consumption as a driver for rising GHG emissions, next to the problem of carbon leakage. However, there are significant questions about consumption based carbon accounting (CBCA) systems (Gap 1: CBCA reliability) and demand side policies (effectiveness (Gap 2) and societal impacts (Gap 3)). Stakeholders hence can easily question their added value (Gap 4).

The Carbon-CAP project aims to (1) stimulate innovative European and international demand side oriented climate policies and services due to more reliable and improved shared insights about consumption based GHG emissions, and (2) to realize a more effective policy mix for achieving the objectives of the EU Climate and Energy package and the Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, by quantitatively analyzing the added value of consumption-oriented climate mitigating policies.

Carbon-CAP will deliver insights in reliability and uncertainty in Consumption based carbon accounting (CBCA) and recommendations for an approach for implementation of a robust, reliable system for CBCA. A recommendation which demand side policy instruments have most added value in complementing existing territorial mitigation approaches, with their environmental and economic implications tested via three modelling perspectives.

This presentation will be part of our process of interactive learning between the project team and key players in the policy area. We will present our intermediate findings and will stimulate discussion and reactions in order to fine tune our approach and outcomes.

### O-3317-05

#### Designing and experiencing social practices in LivingLab environments - A novel approach to transform routinized behaviour via materialized social innovations

C. Liedtke (1); C. Baedeker, (1); J. Buhl, (1)

(1) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Sustainable production and consumption, Wuppertal, Germany

In recent years, theories of social practices have gained a lot of attention in the analysis of consumption. Social practices are the locus of the social, where action and structure are mediated. Social practices as a routinized type of behaviour consist of several elements, interconnected to one another: forms of bodily activities, forms of mental activities, 'things', and their use, a background knowledge in the form of understanding, know-how, states of emotion and motivational knowledge. In a nutshell: The interaction of material, skill and meaning. Social practice theories are just ideal for analysing routine behaviour. Thus consumption is not a practice itself but rather engaging in many practices requires a certain level of consumption of goods or services. Styles of consumption are interwoven with social practices of certain activities but also with daily routines i.e. in households. Consumers combine a number of different practices related to nutrition, mobility or housing and form them into lifestyles. The materials element shows how practices are directly or indirectly related to resource use for objects or infrastructures needed to engage in a given practice. A continuous engagement in a practice, rising numbers of practitioners and differentiation thus keeps the engine running for continued extraction of natural resources. In order to observe, analyse and eventually identify promising interventions to support sustainable transitions of social practices, we developed a coherent research framework - the Sustainable LivingLab (SLL). In principle, a SLL is a user-centric innovation approach built on every-day practice and research, with an approach that facilitates user influence in open and real-life contexts (i.e. in households), aiming to create sustainable values and practices. Therefore, SLL approach builds on social practice theory for two reasons:

i) Social practice theories are ideal for analysing routine behaviour related to a specific case study, e.g. heating.

ii) Design processes with regard to user practices make it easier to spread sustainable social innovations such as novel product service systems (PSS). Studies in failed innovations have shown that the benefits of eco-designed products, technologies or infrastructures are hardly realised if designed without reference to user practices. In this sense, SLL aims to identify the potentials of PSS innovations to embrace social innovation. In order to employ a SLL research approach, we developed a three-phase research design.

1) The first phase of insight research involves understanding the status quo. How do practices look like. For instance, how do people heat, how do people interact with their heating system? Which interpretative schemes do people show towards internal room temperatures? Which routines do persist unreflected? Insight research applies in deep methods of social research. Data logging is accompanied by qualitative interviews and observations of daily routines.

2) Based on the findings from insight research, the prototyping looks out for ideas of sustainable interventions in practices. The objective is to generate ideas and to integrate participants' knowledge into the design of prototypes, PSS and transformational designs may be developed for different types of households that demonstrate rather adverse practices. Instead of automating processes, PSS or transformational designs intervene in practices and behaviour at the right spot (i.e. leaving the heating on while a window is open). We aim to trigger social learning process and support users to reflect upon their actions.

3) In addition, the prototypes developed can be validated using experimental designs and field testing via installing prototypes in a sample of households and log potential change in practices, e.g. in internal temperature or CO2 concentration. Field testing can be complemented by broad-based survey or agent based modelling. A mix and
combination of methods helps to generalise and validate
small scale experimental field tests to a larger scale, such
as urban transitions in quarters or cities.

The LivingLab approach and its three-phase model (insight research, prototyping, field testing) fits well for action and participatory research. The methodology of research on sustainable consumption benefits substantially from experimental settings, its深入研究 of social practices and corresponding development of transformational designs. Results of action research and design will be presented.

3317-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-3317-01

Green Investment and Business Performance: The African Experience

OJ. Professor Adelegan (1) ; J. Adelegan (2)

(1) Lead City University, Economics, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Global Network for Environment and Economic Development Research, Department of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Addressing a paucity of research about industrial adoption of environmentally benign technologies in Africa and, more generally, in tropical developing countries, we examined the Nigerian pulp and paper industry as a case study. Qualitative interviews with twenty upper echelon executives representing five Nigerian firms challenge conventional expectations that energy intensive industries in developing markets operate amid highly polluted, intensive conditions, within weak or non-existent formal environmental regulatory frameworks, and with limited institutional capacity. Our findings suggest a strong positive relationship between cleaner technology use and corporate financial performance of African industrial firms. Our study also suggests the adoption of classical 'win-win' integrated preventive environmental strategy, eco-efficiency and green productivity which improves industrial efficiency and profitability. Nigerian pulp and paper firms are shown to have moved beyond end-of-pipe technologies and cleaner technologies and adopted industrial ecology and "zero emission" principles with appropriate reuse of the remaining waste streams turning the production system into a sustainable industrial ecosystem.

P-3317-02

Green Cities: Benefits of Urban Sustain-
bility

EHM. Ahmed (1)

(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

In the wake of the global financial crisis 2008–2010, the concept of a green economy was provided with fresh impetus following wide-spread discussions on a “Green” New Deal, to enable a “Green Recovery”. Large investments were seen as necessary to support the recovery of the world economy. These financial investments offered an opportunity to invest in green economy sectors.

Nowadays many developed countries adopted the Green
Cities concept as a new tool to face the environmental
impacts in general, and the climate change impacts in
particular.

With mainstreaming climate change concerns attention
the world to adopt a new strategy for urban cities, we
hear raising voices that asking to take GHGs reduction in
account during the implementation of a new urban cities.

Regarding care about the environment point of view, we have to
take regard to the whole natural sources we have, not to
forget sustainability while we're looking for development.

Green building that the usage of a natural or green
materials in its structure: saving and reduce of other
resources as lighting, water consumption and waste
management are the main concern to get Green Cities.

The increase of productivity of workers in green buildings could achieve labor-cost savings that maybe higher than energy cost savings; challenge in developing countries is doing away with subsidized, non-cost-reflective energy prices; the quality of life and health care are also equally significant.

City governments need to coordinate policies and decisions with other levels of climate change but more importantly, they need to be equipped with strategic and integrated planning capacities. In poorer cities, the building up of such capacities is important, as is their access to financial resources for investing in the various sectors of green cities. Here it may be more prudent to adopt a more pragmatic and minimalist approach, which primarily commits municipal sectors such as water, waste, energy and transport to a limited number of overarching strategic goals.

P-3317-03

Breaking Bad: Why We Need to Target Implicit, Automatic Associations in the Fight against Climate Change

G. Beattie (1) ; L. Mcguire (2)

(1) Edge Hill University, Psychology, Lancashire, United Kingdom; (2) Edge Hill University, Psychology, Lancashire, United Kingdom

There is growing recognition of the role of consumer
behaviour in the dramatic increases in global CO2
emissions and, consequently, more awareness of the
critical role of consumers as a major influence on climate
collective. Some leading international figures from the
commercial world have proposed that we need nothing
short of a global 'green' revolution to deal with
the threat posed by climate change. The argument is
that consumers opting for low carbon alternatives would
drive demand for more environmentally friendly products,
and impact on manufacturing and production with
significant environmental consequences. Furthermore,
many leading figures have argued that the public are ready
for this 'green revolution' as they report in numerous
surveys that they are keen to adapt their behaviour to
mitigate the effects of climate change. This has led to
campaigns in a number of countries to reduce energy
use, to promote greener transportation, to highlight lower
carbon footprint alternative products etc. The carbon
labeling of products to guide consumer choice has now
been rolled out in a number of countries, at very significant
financial cost. However, these everyday consumer
habits seem strangely resistant to change and many
governmental commercial and educational campaigns
have not had the desired, or anticipated, effects on actual
consumer behaviour and consumer choice. For example,
using eye tracking technology we found little actual
gaze fixation on carbon labels on products compared to
gaze fixation on the other information that features on
such products (see, for example, G. Beattie, 2012, How
effective is carbon labelling for the consumer? Nature
Climate Change, 2, 214–217). One reason for the overall
pattern of disappointing results on behavioural change in
this area might be that there has been too much focus
on assessing and changing explicit, self-reported attitudes
rather than on more implicit attitudes, formed on the
basis of underlying associative connections. For example,
for years, many people have learned to associate high
carbon lifestyles with societal success (partly, of course,
attributable to advertising) and this association can affect
actual behaviour regardless of more rational decision
making about adaptation and climate change. These
implicit attitudes might now be measured using the Implicit
Association Test (or IAT) and outcome measures from the
IAT seem to predict the attentional focus of consumers,
amongst other things, in a way that self report measures
do not. In this paper, we will outline new experimental
data on this topic, which examines the relative importance
of implicit and explicit attitudes in determining consumer
choice. In which the environmental consequences of
the various choices are made clear to shoppers through
the inclusion of various environmental labels, including
features like carbon footprint, organic and Fairtrade.
The research also considers other critical variables like
the influence of choice under time pressure, the social
context of the behavioural choice, and relevant budgetary
concerns. The research demonstrates that underlying
implicit attitudes are a better predictor of actual consumer
choice in supermarket shopping, especially under certain
circumstances, like time pressure, where the behaviour
becomes more 'automatic', and less reflective. The paper will argue that it is crucial to understand how such implicit attitudes originate and evolve if we are to deal more effectively with anthropogenic climate change. This should provide us with a more promising start point for changing resistant consumer habits, in order to attempt to reposition consumers at the centre of the necessary 'green revolution'. In this paper, we will also outline a number of particular approaches to changing these automatic, implicit attitudes, which have worked in a number of related domains, which could have a significant effect in the area of climate change.

## P-3317-04

### Yves Rocher's experience: 50 years of commitments to the preservation of the environment

A. Blain (1)

(1) Groupe Rocher, sustainable development, Issy-Les-Boisneux, France

Yves Rocher is a one-of-a-kind Brand, created over 50 years ago, that has chosen to master every aspect of its operations: Botanist, Harvester, Manufacturer and Retailer. This specificity enables the Brand to manage all the fields in its business and therefore to reduce its environmental impact at every stage of its products' life cycle.

With half a century of experience in Botanical Beauty, Yves Rocher sources almost 250 plant ingredients with a strategy based on 3 pillars: responsible sourcing, protection of natural resources and local communities, sharing of the benefits resulting from the use of plants. Yves Rocher created its Botanical Charter, illustrating its commitment to the preservation of Biodiversity. Since 2008, Yves Rocher has also actively participated in the Natural Resources Stewardship Circle (NRSC), organization of manufacturers from the beauty industry working together for a sustainable management of biodiversity in supply chains.

Besides, new exclusive active principles are created and developed every year by the Yves Rocher R&D teams, using the most environmentally-friendly extraction technology. Formulation guidelines have been implemented, and Yves Rocher, as a forerunner in the cosmetics industry has banned since 1989 all animal testing for its products and ingredients.

Furthermore, Yves Rocher eco-designs 100% of its packaging. Aledo, a non-natural resource consumption, designing packaging that can be recycled at existing facilities and encouraging customers to sort their packaging waste. In order to accompany teams engaged in product development, Yves Rocher developed «eco-design packaging guidelines». This tool is updated annually and is shared by marketing, purchasing, development and R&D teams. It provides instructions to follow in terms of eco-design for Yves Rocher products.

Yves Rocher industrial facilities fight global warming by reducing their fossil energy consumption, promoting renewable energies (wood-burning heating in Britanny, saving about 1600t of CO2/year), reducing CO2 emissions (–10% kg CO2/product since 2010), improving water efficiency (–19% water consumed/t of bulk produced since 2010).

Since 2010, Yves Rocher has integrated biodiversity management to the company's strategy. In Britany, 100% of the Yves Rocher industrial sites are « havens of Biodiversity ». The Brand is also a genuine Biodiversity Ambassador, hosting more than 3000 participants/year at its awareness events and programs at the Botanical Garden and its own Eco-Hotel Spa.

Environment preservation is at the heart of the Yves Rocher strategy with the support of the Yves Rocher Foundation, in order to leave a positive footprint:

Yves Rocher aims at establishing a new relationship to nature, acting with responsibility towards natural resources and being a biodiversity ambassador to its employees and its 30 million customers throughout the world.

The Yves Rocher Foundation created in 1991 by Jacques Rocher is a pioneer in positive ecology, and strives to transform the way we interact with our Planet. The Foundation- Institut de France acts through 4 sustainable

programs that promote plant biodiversity through concrete initiatives in more than 50 countries throughout the world.

Through its "Plant for the Planet" program, the Yves Rocher Foundation will achieve its target of 50 million trees planted by the end of 2015, across about thirty plantations worldwide. This program is supported by the Yves Rocher brand thanks to the sales of partner products to customers and to the opening of loyalty cards for customers (1 product created, 1 tree planted). Yves Rocher Foundation. The Women of the Earth Award was created in 2001 to reward women for their environmental action, initiative and fight. Today, 350 women across 50 countries have received awards.

In 1992, Yves Rocher counted among the four French companies invited to the Rio Earth Summit, and Jacques Rocher, advocated the cause of forests with the «Call for tropical forests», a petition signed by 300,000 customers. Yves Rocher has also been actively involved into the UN Convention of Biodiversity and UNCTAD, and testified in the COP 10 in Nagoya in 2010, COP 11 in Hyderabad in 2012, UN Business and Biotade events in Montréal and Geneva in 2013 and COP 12 in Pyeong-Chang in October 2014. Climate change is more than ever an urgent issue. Yves Rocher shall keep-on working to reduce its environmental footprint at every step of its value chain, in order to leave a positive footprint.

## P-3317-05

### Understanding the « spirit » and legitimization of Green Economy, from selective to stabilized discourses. (provisional title)

C. Serre (1)

(1) Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Institut de Géographie et Durabilité (IGD), Lausanne, Switzerland

In this paper I present an aspect of the work I am currently conducting on the performative character of the green economy (GE) and the discourses produced around this theme. I study the emergence and the impacts of the GE guidelines on environmental policies, e.g. the set of practices representing the objectives which they speak. Thus, the analysis of GE discourses through their form and content is crucial. Although drawn from ongoing research, this contribution will demonstrate preliminary findings and present one of the questions that frame this work: what do the merging and spreading of green economy rhetoric, discourses and representations tell us about the (nature of) the relationship between environment and economy, and how capitalism can consider discourse as an ensemble of ideas, concepts and categories through which meaning is given to social and physical phenomena, and which is produced and reproduced through an identifiable set of practices" (Hajer and Verstee 2005). In this light, discourse is seen as a social construct and a particular assemblage of discursive elements that structures realities and allows actors to understand their world. As Fairlough (1993) underlines, the role of discourse is not just of representing realities, but, signifying the world, constituting and constructing the world in meaning". My
research explores the performative character of GE within the wider research project I am currently conducting, which aims to analyse whereby GE could contributes to (i) a shifting-produced process in the hegemonic capitalist model or, in contrast (ii) keeping, sustaining and reinforcing the capitalist dynamic ideologies through new register of justification and a new spirit in the terms of Boltanski and Chiappello (1999). In order to investigate the potential dynamic of change or continuity of the GE notion on environmental policies, the identification of the different storylines (Hajer, 2005 ; Dryzek, 2005) helps to map the discourses that encapsulates key ideas of GE. In my study, I assume that a particular and selected vision of the world is carried out through GE rhetoric and discourses, conveying imaginaries of hope and functioning with speculative argumentative thinking. To illustrate that, I will first trace the discursive and socio-historical co-construction of the GE notion through its evolution in time and space. I will then present an analysis of selected institutional discourses attempting to make sense of the different ways and options proposed to envision a "happy marriage" (Goldstein, 2014) between environment and economy: presented through "green" options and promoted via positive and appealing discourses, these propositions justify adjusting present actions to the GE promise, e.g. the increase of economic growth as "a path towards planetary salvation" (ibid). Considering how such a vision comes to be justified and formulated, gains prevalence over others and finally unfolks as coherent understandings of socioeconomic realities, prefigures in my view an attempt to construct a growing sense of belonging to a common future. Indeed, I assume that ontologies of the world are renewed through selected, then stabilized discourses and "self-evidence" (Vadrot, 2013).

P-3317-06

Obstacles: Social practice in everyday life

B. Støffensen (1)

(1) University of Applied Sciences Darmstadt, Social Sciences and Social Work, Darmstadt, Germany

"Can the Green Economy save the climate?" The answer is simple at the moment – it is: No!

To explain the strict answer I tell a short story which happened during the turn of the year from 2012 to 2013. The story: I regularly buy a coffee in the cafeteria of our student union. In December 2012 I paid for a cup of cappuccino € 1.20. Coming back after Christmas Break I was looking forward to drink my regular morning cappuccino which now costs € 1.50. Astonished about the 25% price increase I asked the till girl: "Why is the price so much higher now?" She told me: "The students' union executive body decided last autumn that they want us to provide fair trade coffee. Therefore, you get a better coffee now and that makes it more expensive!" "Oh", I said and started to think:

1. What is the price difference between a standard and a fair trade coffee?

2. How many cups of coffee does one get out of a 500gr-package of coffee?

A visit to my local supermarket revealed a price difference of about € 3.00 per package. Due to economies of scale the price difference is certainly smaller for the cafeteria. I calculated that a package of coffee will provide approximately 50 cups of cappuccino. The price increase for introducing fair trade coffee (by the way: the new and better coffee doesn't really taste or look different) should be € 0.06. My conclusion: The student union tried to make an additional profit of € 0.24. Student's protests lead them to lower the price by € 1.35. Let's accept that the additional € 0.09 covered a wage increase for the till girls. This is definitely not a scientific proof but it is an evidence for a practice of many firms.

Since the 1980 it is an established idea in the marketing literature that the green consumer will show up with increasing importance for producers and retailers. The growth rates of the green economy were happening and the marketing of green products was more or less a failure. But firms were successful in one aspect: Consumers are absolutely sure that green or sustainable products are imperative more expensive than ordinary products. That the difference between ordinary and green products in many cases boils down to mere credence characteristics and only in some case to search or experience characteristics doesn't make it easier.

The multi-level approval of the transitions theory (Geels; Kemp; Shove and others) conceptualizes a transition process – i.e. towards a green economy – as a joint effort of a variety of different actors. It needs at least politicians, sometimes scientists, producers, retailers and consumers (individual households or firms in a supply chain) who have to act reciprocally and with a common interest without knowing for sure what the other will do: "do you des!" Producers and retailers have to take entrepreneurial risks by producing "green" – consumers have to believe and trust in credence characteristics of products by consuming "green". Our own research about environmental friendly products doesn't reveal a lot of trust on both sides. In the transition from grey to green (recognizable by labeling schemes) reciprocity seems to be crucial.

One important factor in the transition process is the aspect of culture which includes norms, daily routines and taken for granted. According to Anthony Giddens and others (Schatzki, Reckwitz, Bourdieu, Strengers, Wenger) we rely on social practices which are shaping our everyday actions. Decisions and actions of firms and individuals are based (1) on own experiences (formerly successful actions), (2) on recognized actions and decisions of relevant others, (3) on our expectations of the expectations of relevant others. Furthermore the price to do a change behavior is (4) limited because preceding decisions and actions are binding and changes might be costly.

Conclusion: The green economy is an ambitious project which requires a massive transition. To save the climate needs a shift of the mindset of the actors mentioned above. It requires a change of routines and a growth of trust. Considering the theory of practice as an option to conceptualize routine and somehow repetitive behavior the contribution shows limits and possibilities for actually generating a transition.

3318 - Sustainable strategies to mitigate climate and improve public health in developed and developing countries

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-3318-01

Norway's knowledge platform on SLCFs –
holistic thinking and multiple benefits for
climate change and air quality

V. Vestrem (1) ; MM. Kvalevåg (1) ; S. Guttu (1) ; SF. Skjellum (1)

(1) Norwegian Environment Agency, Climate department, Trondheim, Norway

Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are a relatively new field in a governmental context. In 2013, Norway published its first knowledge platform on SLCFs. The key objective was

to perform an integrated assessment of climate, health and environmental effects of Norwegian emissions of SLCFs and propose measures and instruments for reducing such effects by 2030. Achieving the 2-degree target relies on substantial CO2 reductions. The Norwegian knowledge platform focuses on how measures targeting SLCFs could complement CO2 mitigation measures.

The scientific knowledge was quite immature and developed rapidly in parallel with the Norwegian Environment Agency's assessment. This paper outlines methodological challenges and how these were approached to establish a framework for the analysis of measures. The development of different reduction strategies for consideration by the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, are discussed. The choice of metric to compare the climate effect of different SLCFs was a key to our analysis. Development of national BC
and OC emission inventories and valuation of health effects were other essential building blocks to enable an integrated assessment of measures. Calculation of the net climate effect of measures, i.e. taking into account both warming and cooling effects of emission reductions, is also important.

The results show that in the short term, the climate effect of Norwegian annual emissions of SLCFs is comparable to that of CO2. Measures aimed at SLCFs cannot replace CO2 measures in either the short or the long term, but reduced emissions of SLCFs will reinforce the global climate benefits of rapid reductions in CO2 emissions. Thus, both SLCFs and CO2 emissions should be mitigated in order to reduce the rate of warming over the next decades.

In some cases, we found that measures with a positive health impact had a negative climate impact. Our study concludes that integrated approaches to assess climate change and air pollution may form a better basis for policy development. Currently, the Norwegian Environment Agency is considering how the SLCFs best can be included in the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions.

## K-3318-02

### Improving health by acting on air pollution and climate change: the challenges faced by Chinese cities

T. Li (1)

(1) Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute for environmental health and related product safety, Beijing, China

As the most iconic example of the air pollution and climate change in the world, China has experienced an economic expansion during the past decades which has led to a dramatic increase in emissions of both ambient pollutants and greenhouse gases. Heavy air pollution and temperature warming has been observed in China over the past century. China is also the biggest country for its population, and is confronted with the most rigorous aging population problem in the world. Global warming and air pollution are emerging 21st Century challenges. In addition, haze and heat are two major threads for public health in Chinese cities, as illustrated by the situation in Beijing. The haze pollution in Beijing became more and more serious in recent years. One of the worst episode in January 2013 lead to significant excess mortality. Between January 17 to January 31, at least 164 persons died because of high PM2.5 concentrations. Respiratory and cardiovascular diseases were especially sensitive to PM2.5. Reducing PM2.5 could therefore significantly improved health and well-being in Chinese city.

We also investigated the health risk tradeoffs among heat, population aging, and adaptation under a changing climate by integrating the full range of the climate models. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between observed daily mortality of persons 65 years of age and older, and the temperature data in Beijing. Then, we obtained downscaled future temperature projections from 31 climate models and two future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios for Beijing. These two inputs were then combined to estimate future mortality related to heat effects, which were compared to heat-related mortality in the baseline period (1980s). Last, we incorporated population projections under three variant scenarios and the different heat adaptation scenarios to the above two inputs to project the changes of future heat-related mortality.

Under the population high variation scenario, in the 2080s and RCP8.5, Beijing was projected to experience a median of 15894 heat-related deaths per year of persons 65 years of age and older, which is approximately 6 times the projected value for the population without variation scenario. In the 2080s, with the biggest adaptation under the population high variation scenario, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 2.6 times larger than in the 1980s in RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 respectively.

Aging population will enlarge the heat-related health risk under the warming climate. Even under the high adaptation scenario, by the 2080s, the heat-related deaths would still increase. Our results provided evidence that adaptation dimensions, the magnitude of future heat-related health risk, but not completely offset the heat impact from climate change. Our findings can lead to improved

understanding of public health intervention policy making and adaptation strategy planning for the dual problems of climate change and aging population.

## O-3318-01

### Mitigating air pollution to achieve health and climate benefits

P. Kinney (1)

(1) Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Climate and Health Program, New York, NY, United States of America

Air quality is a major modifiable health burden around the world, especially in rapidly developing countries. In contrast to air pollution, including fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone, has adverse effects on human health throughout the lifespan. Adverse effects of air pollution include the development of chronic diseases such as lung cancer, chronic heart and lung diseases, as well as adverse effects on the reproductive system and on neuro-development. Action to mitigate air pollution brings immediate and lasting benefits for the health and well-being of the population. Well-designed air pollution mitigation actions have the potential to reduce societal impacts on the climate system. In order to inform global, regional and urban scale air pollution and climate planning, there is a need for multi-scale health impact assessments that estimate the potential health impacts and/or benefits that may result from coordinated mitigation strategies. We describe several such recent and/or ongoing efforts of this kind. For example, the recently-completed AC-HIA project estimated the influence that policies aimed at reducing air pollution emissions could have on global, regional and urban public health in 2030 and 2050, compared to 2010, taking into account the influence of climate change and alternative air pollution mitigation scenarios. Assessments were carried out across three different geographic scales with increasing spatial granularity, for the entire world, for Europe, and for the Paris metropolitan region. To mitigation scenarios were evaluated: a business as usual scenario based on national regulations already on the books, and a maximum feasible reduction scenarios based on available technologies for air pollution control. The results showed the potential for substantial increases in global deaths due to PM2.5 and ozone under the business as usual scenarios, especially in south and east Asia. On the other hand, substantial health benefits could be achieved under the maximum feasible reduction scenario. In general, health assessments carried out at other spatial scales yielded greater health benefit estimates. This and other studies are pointing the way to a new generation of tools for integrated air quality and climate planning.

## O-3318-02

### Health and climate dual impact of African anthropogenic combustion aerosol emission change in 2030

C. Liousse (1); L. Roblou (1); EM. Assamoi (2); M. Mallet (1) and P. Criqui (3); C. Galy-Lacaux (1); R. Rosset (1)

(1) Laboratoire d'Aerologie, CNRS-Université Paul Sabatier UMR 5560, Toulouse, France; (2) University Felix Houpouchou Boigny-Cocody-Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) CNRS and ANCRE, Pacte-eden, Grenoble, France

Fossil fuel (traffic, industries) and biofuel (domestic fires) emissions of gases and particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to a rapid growth of African cities and megacities.

In this study, we will present the most recent developments of African combustion emission inventories, including African specificities. A regional fossil fuel and biofuel inventory for gases and particulates was developed in Liousse et al., 2014 has been developed for Africa at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° for the years 2005 and 2030. For 2005, the original database of years for Liousse and Liousse (2008) was used after modification accounting for updated regional fuel consumption and emission factors. Two prospective inventories for 2030 are derived based on Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model (Criqui, 2001). The first one is a reference scenario (2030ref) with no emission control and the second one is for a «clean» scenario (2016cc) including Kyoto policy and African specific emission control. Our results
predict very large increases of pollutant emissions in 2030 (e.g. contributing to 50% of total anthropogenic organic particles), if no emission regulations are implemented.

These inventories have been introduced into RegCM4, a regional climatic model. In this paper we will focus on modelled aerosol concentrations and optical depths in 2005, 2030ref and 2030ccccc scenarios. Spatial distributions of the 2030 scenarios will be presented with a zoom on a set of urban and rural sites. Finally, aerosol radiative forcing and impact on mortality rates caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 pollution increase from 2005 to 2030 will be shown for each scenarios.

To conclude, this paper will discuss the effectiveness of scenarios to improve emissions, aerosol concentrations, radiative forcing and mortality rates, underlining the need for further measurements, scheduled in the frame of the on going DACCIAWI program (EU FP7).

### O-3318-03

## The Importance of Revising Indonesia NAAQS for the Local Health Benefits and to Mitigate GHGs

**H. Yulinawati (1)**

(1) Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia

Indonesian government actively joins in efforts to reduce global GHGs emissions. Various regulations were issued such as Presidential Decree No. 61 of 2011 on the National Action Plan to Reduce Emissions of GHGs and Presidential Decree No. 71 of 2011 on the National GHGs Inventory System. Unfortunately, local air pollution is seen left behind, with many big cities in Indonesia do not have an adequate integrated air quality management, such as limited emission inventory, the NAAQS is not well enforced, and lack of monitoring equipment. Black carbon (BC), a constituent of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and tropospheric ozone (O3) are harmful air pollutants associated with premature mortality. Recent study shows that BC and O3 emission reductions would have immediate and multiple benefits for human health. Therefore, policy designed to reduce GHGs can have co-benefits for air quality or vice versa. This study examines the current Indonesia NAAQS 1999 compared to WHO AQG 2005, mainly on particulate matter (PM) and O3. This study also evaluates ambient monitoring data of PM 03 and O3, and Indonesia's current emission control measures targeting BC and ozone precursor. By linking these three issues above, this study simulates the impacts of mitigation measures on ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 to calculate their associated changes in health-related benefits. The WHO AQG 2005 for PM2.5: 10 µg/m3 annual mean; 25 µg/m3 24-hour mean. While for PM10: 20 µg/m3 annual mean, 50 µg/m3 24-hour mean. As comparison, Indonesia NAAQS 1999 for PM2.5: 15 µg/m3 annual mean; 65 µg/m3 24-hour mean. For PM10: annual mean is not available, 150 µg/m3 24-hour mean. The WHO AQG 2005 provides interim targets as an approach to achieving the air quality guideline value. Indonesia, with higher levels of air pollution, should select a clear achievable interim target level based on air quality infrastructure. There is a substantial lack of monitoring stations for both PM2.5 and PM10; most monitored PM in Indonesia is TSP. It is very limited epidemiology studies related to air quality too. Therefore, it is not easy to show the health benefits of mitigating emissions of air pollutants and GHGs. Some mitigations exist such as emission control from industrial stacks, I/M, public transportation, and relatively new discourse on low-carbon infrastructure. Revising Indonesia NAAQS is needed to make sure public health is guaranteed. Air quality and health co-benefits, because they are mainly local and near-term, offer better motivation for transformation to a low-carbon paradigm. It will be easier to set the target to mitigate the GHGs related to air pollutants.

### O-3318-04

## Health co-benefits and co-harms of reducing indoor air-pollution in Sub Saharan Africa

**R. Kawan (1)**

(1) Institute of Public Health (IPH), Climate change and Health, Im Neuenheimer Feld, 324, heidelberg, Germany

## Local air pollution harms health

Household use of solid fuel is the most widespread source of indoor air pollution worldwide. Globally, 2.6% of all ill-health is attributable to indoor smoke from solid fuels, nearly all in poor regions. Solid fuels are extensively used for cooking and home heating in developing countries, especially in rural areas. Solid fuels is usually combusted with inefficient cook stoves, reducing a variety of health damaging gases and particles, such as black carbon, organic carbon, methane, and carbon monoxide. More than 1.6 million deaths and over 38.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to indoor smoke from solid fuels in 2000. Cooking with solid fuels is thus responsible for a significant proportion, about 3%, of the global burden of disease. Approximately 1.5 million deaths every year from respiratory infections can be attributed to the environment, including the effects of indoor air pollution. To encourage the use of cleaner burning fuels, the step is usually from wood to charcoal or kerosene and to Liquid Petroleum Gas might be effective ways to reduce air pollution exposures.

Reaping climate co-benefits by reducing climate active pollutants

Recent IPCC report stressed the role of many causative agents of Indoor air pollution, as having in addition a greenhouse gas effect, in particular black carbon. Other common pollutants such as nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter and carbon monoxide have been shown to be associated with several adverse health events such as asthma attacks and incidence, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and lung cancer.

From a climate policy angle, reducing CAPs (Climate active pollutants) reaps Health Co-benefits. There are some evidences that stove improvements can substantially reduce indoor air pollution and the risk of lung cancer, respiratory diseases, Asthma, cataract, etc. Therefore, efforts should be made to reduce the burden of disease through public health and primary care programmes. Programmes can be designed to encourage urban and rural households that use solid fuels to move up the "energy ladder" to cleaner fuels such as kerosene or liquid petroleum gas. Household changes to improve ventilation and behavioural modifications to reduce exposure could be the cost effective interventions to reduce the burden of diseases.

## Avoiding co-harm

Co-harm is a negative health effect, which has never been mentioned in this context. Without smoke, indoor abundance of mosquitoes increases and there is a higher risk of malaria transmission. 2009). There is a need to couple interventions for less smoke with those against malaria. Air pollution reduction rarely promote the twin goals of protecting health, avoiding increase in malaria and climate but can pose tradeoffs. All particles are dangerous for health, for example, some are cooling, such as sulfates, and some warming, such as black carbon. Indeed elimination of all anthropogenic particles in the atmosphere, may be a major success for health and would have only a minor net impact on climate.

## 3318-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3318-01

## Use of satellite imageries and Numerical weather prediction output in Forecasting Dust/Haze over West Africa

**AA. Abdoul-Aziz Abebe (1)**

(1) ASECNA - NIGER, NIAMEY, Niger, Republic of

Dust Haze occurrence over the sub-Saharan Africa is an annual phenomena, which has attractively a lot of attention from both forecasters and scientists. Between november and march, observations show that large dust plumes are transported from both the Sahara and Sahel towards West African Countries and across the Atlantic Ocean. Predicting Dust Haze generation should be an important application of meteorology to development in this area both for economic and socialaspects. The main objective of the present study is to develop methodologies for betterinterpretation and use of NWP and Satellite products in forecasting Dust Haze generated
by the predominant mechanism associated with pressure gradient tendency; improve knowledge and techniques required to exploit potential predictability of Dust Haze; verification of weather forecasts. One should however keep in mind that atmospheric soundings are needed when other generation mechanisms are concerned.

P-3318-02

Black carbon emissions from biomass and
fossil fuels: Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

M. Arif (1) ; R. Kumar (2) ; E. Zusman (3)

(1) SHARDA UNIVERSITY, ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, UP, India; (2) SHARDA UNIVERSITY, Environment science, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, India; (3) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Integrated policies for sustainable societies, Zushi, Japan

Most of the climate change debate and policies has focused on mitigating long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) to reduce global warming. But recently abating short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as black carbon (BC) has entered these discussions. BC emission from biofuel cooking in South Asia and its radiative forcing is a significant source of uncertainty for health and climate impact studies. Quantification of BC emissions in the published literature is either based on laboratory or remote field observations far away from the source. We use field measurements taken simultaneously inside urban and rural households (LPG and biomass users), ambient air and vehicular emissions from highways in area of the Indo-Gangetic-Plains region of India to establish the role of both solid biomass based cooking in traditional stoves, gas stoves and diesel vehicles in contributing to high BC. Household were also interviewed to understand barriers related to clean fuel accessibility and adoptability within users.

The major finding of this study till now is able to interpret the BC concentrations during cooking hours, both indoors and outdoors have anomalously large concentrations ranging from 3.82 µg to 105.64 µg for indoor during morning hours (05:00 to 09:00) and 1.32 µg to 130.70 µg for early evening hours (17:00 to 20:00). The BC emission during the non-cooking hours was also large, in the range of 1.05 to 95.44 µg. The peak outdoor BC concentrations are ranging from 6.54 µg to 40.81 µg in morning hours while 3.07 µg to 27.92 µg in evening hours. BC emission from transportation was also found high in morning and evening hours, have large concentration reaching 4.38 to 52.12 µg in morning hours and 1.71 to 49.02 µg in evening hours. The imprint of the cooking hour peaks were seen in the outdoor BC both in the village as well as in the highway. The results have significant implications for climate and epidemiological studies.

P-3318-03

The Fertilizer and Carbon Sequestration
Potential of an Accelerated compost in two
soil types

OE. Ayanfeoluwa (1) ; VO. Aduramigba, (2) ; O. Adeoluwa, (1)

(1) Federal College of Agriculture, Department of Crop production, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Department of land and water resources, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (3) University of Ibadan, Department of agronomy, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Compost has the potential to trap carbon in the soil while supplying the nutrients needed for the crop use. This study therefore investigated the fertilizer and carbon

sequestration potential of an accelerated compost (a new commercial compost from market organic wastes and animal manure with composting accelerated with a specific microorganism). This experiment was laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design with three replications. The treatments were accelerated compost (AC) at the rate of 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg N / ha. The mineral fertilizer (NPK 15-15-15) and conventional compost (CO) both at 60 kg N / ha, as well as the control (no soil additive) were the checks. Data were collected on the maize grain yields at both main and second cropping and post cropping soil organic carbon. Data were analysed using Analysis of variance and means compared with standard error of means. The result of the grain yield at the main planting showed that, on an Alfisol, the 60 kg N / ha AC (3.33 t / ha) compared favourably with 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.97 t / ha) but performed significantly (p<0.05) higher than 60 kg N / ha CC (2.76 t / ha). On an Ultisol, the 60 kg N / ha AC resulted into significantly higher grain yield (3.42 t / ha) than the 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.79 t / ha) and 60 kg N / ha CC (2.74 t / ha). At the residual planting, on an Alfisol, both the 60 kg N / ha AC (2.31 t / ha) and 60 kg N / ha CC (2.41 t / ha) performed significantly higher than the 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.21 t / ha), while the same trend was observed on an Ultisol. The AC sequestrated more carbon (58 % extra compared to the control) than the CC (9 % extra compared to the control) and the sequestration rate on an Alfisol. Also on an Ultisol, Accelerated compost sequestrated more carbon (14 % extra compared to the control) than the CC (8 % extra compared to the control) at the same 60 kg N / ha rate. It could therefore be concluded that the shortness in maturity of accelerated compost does not limit its fertilizer and carbon sequestration potential.

P-3318-04

Modélisation de l'impact de la pollution atmosphérique urbaine avec des échelles régionale et locale en Afrique aux Ouest

D. Madina (1)

(1) university Félix Houphuòt Boigny, Physic, Cococdy, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Regional climate modeling of the impact of urban air pollution at regional and local scales in West Africa

Mainly based on modeling, this study will highlight the impact of particulate and gaseous pollution from the West African megacities on regional climate and urban meteorology. The West African region has very large cities which promote strong anthropogenic urban air pollution. Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) at the scale of West Africa will permit focus on the impact of urban air pollution on the climate of this region. Knowing that megacities affect their environment at local scales, up to the street, where RegCM4 is no more suitable, the Weather Forecast Research and its chemistry module (WFR-CHEM) with finer resolution will be used to study the chemistry of pollutants in the megalopolis. This part will focus essentially on aerosols (BC, OC, SO4 and NO3) and gases (CO2, CO, SO2 and VOC) combustion.

In the preliminary result, we have activated the dusts module to see what it brings disturbance on climate parameters. The tests with the model RegCM reproduce well the patterns of precipitation. Also we compared the temperature of the model with and without chemistry with observations. Thus the presence of dusts has a cooling effect and tends to improve the system. In further work we will characterize and quantify urban air pollution in Abidjan and Lagos. First, it will be for me to refine the inventories of particulate emissions in two megacities of West Africa (Abidjan and Lagos). Also analyze the impact of particulate and gaseous pollution on regional and local climate, while using the WFR_CHEM model for urban study.
The global and regional health impacts of future food production under climate change

M. Springmann (1) ; D. Mason-D'croz (2) ; S. Robinson (2) ; P. Ballon (3) ; T. Garnett (4) ; C. Godfray (5) ; D.ollin (6) ; M. Rayner (7) ; P. Scarborough (7)

(1) University of Oxford, Department of Population Health: Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, United States of America;

(3) Universidad del Pacifico, Department of economics, Lima, Peru; (4) University of Oxford, Environmental change institute, Oxford, United Kingdom; (5) University of Oxford, Department of zoology, Oxford, United Kingdom;

(6) University of Oxford, Department of international development, Oxford, United Kingdom; (7) University of Oxford, British heart foundation centre on population approaches to non-communicable disease prevention, Oxford, United Kingdom

Background: One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its impact on agriculture. While much research has focused on questions of food security, less attention has been devoted to, assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. We estimate excess mortality due to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight- related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.

Methods: We linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red-meat consumption, and body weight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths due to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions and three socio-economic pathways, which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs.

Findings: The model predicts that by 2050 climate change will lead to per-capita reductions of 3%, 4%, and 1% in global food availability, fruit and vegetable consumption, and red-meat consumption, respectively. Those changes were associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths globally (95% CI: 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided due to changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate- related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in South and East Asia. Adopting climate-stabilization pathways reduced the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71% depending on their stringency.

Interpretation: The health impacts of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be significant, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent a substantial number of climate- related deaths. Strengthening public-health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy.

Understanding the impact of international climate policies on regional food security using an Integrated Assessment Model

Y. Cui (1) ; S. Waldhoff, (2) ; E. Gilmore (1)

(1) University of Maryland, School of public policy, College Park, MD, United States of America; (2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, MD, United States of America

We evaluate changes to regional food security under different international climate policy structures using an integrated assessment (IA) model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Climate change mitigation policies may affect food security through complex interactions of changing food prices by altering land use patterns and changing income by influencing economic development and poverty reduction. IA models provide a consistent framework for evaluating these effects using assumptions that are consistent with the estimates of the costs and other impacts of climate policies.

First, we develop a measure of food security that can be estimated in GCAM based on economic accessibility and nutritional value. Specifically, national and regional food accessibility is approximated by the fraction of income spent on staple commodities, weighted by total food calorie availability and the share provided by staples. To better capture regional variability, we develop this measure by estimating regional consumer prices of staple commodities from the global producer prices modeled in GCAM. Second, we evaluate the implications over different socioeconomic scenarios, represented by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, we estimate the impact of a universal carbon tax (UCT) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to reach global climate targets reflected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), without and with transfer payment using two illustrative allocation regimes.

We find that the socioeconomic pathway and the climate policy regime have important implications for food accessibility. More optimistic SSPs generally improve food accessibility with greater marginal benefits in poor and already food insecure regions. Second, impacts on food accessibility caused by a UCT mitigation policy differ across regions with greater impacts in developing countries. Third, regional variability of food access is further modified with payment transfers in global carbon trading. In particular, an allocation regime based on future population is expected to favor developing regions and thus moderate regional inequality of food access, while an allocation regime based on historical emissions tends to exacerbate the cross-region variability.

By exploring the magnitude and distribution of impacts on food security under alternative climate policy scenarios, we capture an important dimension of regional impacts of climate policy beyond mitigation costs.

Acknowledgement: This material is based upon work supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office via the Minerva Initiative under grant number W911NF-13-1-0307.

Household and food security: what lessons can we learn from food secure households?

S. Silvestri (1) ; S. Douxchamps (2) ; P. Kristjanson (3) ; W. Foerch (4) ; M. Radeny (4) ; I. Mutie (1) ; C. Quiros (1) ; H. Mario (5) ; N. Nduka (1) ; N. Ndiwa (1) ; J. Mango (3) ; L. Gaessen (6) ; M. Rufoin (7)

(1) International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) International Livestock Research Institute, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) World Agroforestry Centre (ICAFR), Nairobi, Kenya; (4) ILRI, CCAFS East Africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (5) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), QLD, Australia; (6) International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Nairobi, Kenya; (7) CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya

The potential impacts of climate change on food security in East Africa, while complex and variable due to highly heterogeneous landscapes, are a cause of concern. How well people are able to adapt to, or reduce climate change effects will depend on whether they are able to
change their behaviour and adopt improved agricultural technologies and management strategies.

While there is a rapidly growing literature on vulnerability and adaptation to increased climatic variability and climate change, significant knowledge gaps still exist, especially regarding the assessment of adaptation options in different environments and how these might be appropriately targeted to different types of households to reduce food insecurity.

This study therefore addresses a series of questions, such as: what are the key factors that contribute to household-level food security; what lessons can we learn from food secure households; and what agricultural interventions, options and management strategies are likely to benefit female-headed households in particular. It uses a unique dataset of 600 households to explore a wide range of indicators capturing different aspects of household performance and well-being for different types of households — female-headed, male-headed, food secure, food insecure — and assess livelihoods options and strategies and how they influence food security. The analysis is based on a very detailed farm characterisation survey carried on in three sites in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

The results of this study show that food secure farmers appear to be the ones that diversify the most, have a variety of crops on their farms and are market oriented. In addition, domestic asset increases the likelihood of being food secure for female headed households. Yet, a different livelihood portfolio is pursued by men and female head of household, with women less likely to grow high-value crops than men and with a less diversified crop portfolio.

These findings can inform the targeting of national and regional policies to enhance adaptation in agricultural smallholder systems of East Africa. Implications of these findings include identifying actions that are likely to contribute more to food security and that can better enhance food security for female-headed as well as male-headed households. These usually include interventions that enable households' access to information about new technologies and practices especially though innovative communication effort, and new market opportunities.

## O-3320-04

### IPCC AR5's contribution to the understanding of the future of fisheries and aquaculture and the knowledge gaps that have yet to be covered

A. Seggel (1) ; D. Soto, (2) ; C. Deyoung (2) ; T. Bahri (2)

(1) FAO, Fisheries and aquaculture department, Rome, Italy;

(2) FAO, Fisheries and aquaculture, Rome, Italy

The IPCC AR5 provides highly relevant knowledge on the future implications of climate change on global fisheries and aquaculture resources. This presentation sets out to highlight how the IPCC AR5 contributes to the discussion on climate change and its direct and indirect effects on fisheries and aquaculture, our understanding of vulnerabilities within the sector and dependent communities and economies, and adaptation and mitigation options from within the sector. Furthermore, it will identify knowledge gaps of the IPCC AR5 that remain to be covered as well as provide additional knowledge not yet captured by the AR5. The presentation will provide examples of vulnerability questions and methodologies being applied from within the sector, covering inland, marine fisheries and aquaculture systems. Concrete examples of how fishers, aquaculture farmers, post-harvest systems and dependent communities are perceiving and reacting to climate variability and change will be shared. Filling knowledge gaps and up-scaling our efforts are important in order to better comprehend how food, nutrition and livelihood security as well as economic growth objectives from fisheries and aquaculture are required to change in order to be climate smart.

The abstract is submitted on behalf of the Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA).

## P-3320-01

### Climate change impacts on the leaf miner, a major pest of the oil palm in Nigeria

T. Aneni (1)

(1) Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research, Benin, Edo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

This study examines application of climate variability to abundance and impacts on the leaf miner, Coelaenomendoda elaeida, a major pest of the oil palm and its parasitoids in Africa. It analyses temperature, rainfall and relative humidity conditions from 1961 – 1970 as a reference point for baseline climatic conditions and description of same conditions between 2001 – 2010. Evaluates projections up to 2050, and describes impacts on leaf miner abundance. Leaf miner was sampled in the main station of the Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research, between January 2009 and December 2010. Means, standard deviation, variances, covariance's, seasonal and climatic patterns for temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were computed. Least square method was used to estimate the trend in the series and the trend equation. Time series analysis was used to analyse the data and generate trend equations. The models for temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were generated. A forecast up to 2050 was generated indicating an upward trend in temperature and a downward trend in rainfall and relative humidity, with concomitant increase in leaf miner abundance between 1980 and 2010.

## P-3320-02

### Mapping irrigation potential from renewable groundwater in Africa: a quantitative approach

Y. Altchenko (1) ; K. Villholth (1)

(1) International Water Management Institute, Southern Africa Office, Silverton, South Africa

Groundwater provides an important buffer to climate variability in Africa. Yet groundwater irrigation contributes only approximately 1% of the cultivated land as compared to 14 % in Asia. As opposed to previous country-based estimates, this paper derives a continent-wide, distributed (0.5 degree resolution) map of groundwater irrigation potential, indicated in terms of fractions of cropland potentially irrigable with renewable groundwater. The method builds on an annual groundwater balance approach using 41 years of model data, allocating to groundwater irrigation the groundwater recharge in excess after satisfying other current human needs and environmental requirements, while disregarding any socio-economic and physical constraints in access to the resource. Due to high uncertainty of groundwater environmental needs, three scenarios, leaving 30, 50 and 70% of recharge for the environment, were implemented in a conservative estimate of the potential. In addition, current dominating crops and cropping rotations and associated irrigation requirements in a zonal approach were applied. Results show an inhomogeneously distributed gross groundwater irrigation potential across the continent, even within individual countries, reflecting recharge patterns and extent of cropland. Results further show that average annual groundwater available for irrigation ranges from 708 to 1669 km³ depending on scenario. The total area of cropland and irrigable with groundwater ranges from 44.6 to 105.3 million hectares, corresponding to 20.5% to 48.5% of the cropland over the continent. Accounting for existing groundwater irrigation, residual irrigation potential remains high and relevant for poverty alleviation in the Sahel and Eastern Africa region where climate variability could have important impact on population. This could significantly increase the food production and productivity in the region from a reliable and renewable resource.

## P-3320-03

### Dynamics in climate change, agriculture and food security in the sub-saharan Africa: a review

MA. Awodun (1)
(1) Federal University of Technology Aurore, Department of Crop, Soil and Pest Management, Ondo State, France

There have been decreases in food supply caused by extreme weather events. Regardless of where extreme weather occurs, the effects on food availability and price are disproportionately felt by the world's poor. Moreover, crop failures due to extreme weather not only affect those being surviving in the most vulnerable places but also have a direct impact on subsistence farmers. Understanding how such extreme weather events - which are predicted to become more frequent under climate change - affect both yields and total production of the world's staple food crops is thus an issue of both scientific and societal importance. Climate change is occurring more rapidly than anticipated and the increase in extreme weather events threatens more disruptive effects to agriculture. The vulnerability of food production systems has been demonstrated over and over again. Food security is the state achieved when food systems operate such that <u>all</u> people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life<sup>1</sup>. Food security is underpinned by food systems and is diminished when food systems are stressed. This stress can be caused by a range of factors in addition to global environmental change, e.g., population pressure, changes in international trade agreements and policies, migration, and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Agriculture contributes on average 34 percent to the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries and employs 64 percent of the labour force. It accounts for about 40 percent of exports and provides various ecosystem services. Agriculture and rural development are thus the key pillars of the SSA economy. Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by a growing population (2 - 3%) and an increasing number of households depending on farming activities. Soil degradation due to population pressure, intrinsic soil fragility and harsh climatic conditions have decreased the amount of cultivable land per capita and led to food insecurity since farmers have very limited means to purchase agricultural inputs (mineral and/or organic manure, working tools, and technical capacities, etc.) to increase soil productivity. Review of average crop yield for cereals, roots and tubers in 41 African countries showed 13 countries registering decline in cereals yield and 15 registering decline in yields for roots and tubers. Decline in rainfall has significantly altered the traditional farm calendar and soil degradation overstretched local farmers' soil management capability. Population resilience to these changes are related to several coping and adaptive strategies including crop diversification, mobility, water resource conservation, and migration. Adaptation which is a process of adjusting to a changing climate through explicit and planned interventions, or spontaneous consequence of inherent flexibility, can mitigate its impacts. While adaptation to climate change is seen by most observers as the most preeminent issue for African countries. There is a strong parallel development of initiatives that aim at stabilizing GHG concentration in the atmosphere (mitigation) in reality, mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independently as they are complementary. Most mitigation options will reduce impacts of climate change and several adaptation strategies will lead to reduction of GHG disposal in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving mitigation, it is suggested that a viable option of adaptation is developed to prevent the anticipated negative impacts of global change. Conservation agriculture, which involves minimal soil disturbance can improve water use efficiency by crops and helps in carbon sequestration processes and also improve on the capacity of crops to withstand weather stresses. Also, raising productivity through improved irrigation will likely be the key to ensuring food security as weather pattern shift.

P-3320-04

Sustainable Agriculture and Climate
Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum
tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans (Phaseolus
vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and
Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First
Nation Community

C. Barbeau (1) ; M. Oelbermann, (1) ; J. Karagatzides, (2) ; L. Tsuji, (3)

(1) University of Waterloo, Environment and Resource Studies, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; (2) Georgian College,

School of environmental studies, Barrie, Canada; (3)
University of Toronto, Health studies and the department of
physical and environmental sciences, Scarborough, Canada

Aboriginal people in Canada's northern regions are vulnerable to climate variability in addition to experiencing disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses including obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Food security is a contributing factor to the loss of traditional lifestyles. Current food systems within these regions rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate offers the opportunity for local agricultural production that can increase food security and promote a more sustainable food system. In this study the feasibility of sustainably growing potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) to enhance food security in remote subarctic communities is explored through a case study in Fort Albany First Nation in northern Ontario, Canada. Potato crops are grown over a two-year period and rotated into plots that had been planted with green bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Results showed that potatoes and bush beans could be grown successfully in the subarctic with yields comparable to more traditional agricultural methods. In subarctic Canada, sustainable local food production helps to promote social capital, healthier lifestyles, and food security.

P-3320-05

Weather, Climate and Food Security

T. Beer (1)

(1) President, IUGG Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change, CSIRO; PB1, Aspendale, Vic., Australia

Safety and Security, though almost synonymous opposites of "risk", can have different meanings. Thus, for example, food safety is only one of the nine attributes of food security.

To meteorologists, food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic and to predict their societal consequences.

In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20
Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for
Sustainable Development it states that it is important
"To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce
the impacts of production on the natural environment
including climate change, recognizing that different
measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon
and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against
each other...."

The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), through its Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change (CCEC) is leading the WeatClifs consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatClifs: What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards (such as famine), and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales? This poster will review the work undertaken to date.

P-3320-06

International Joint Laboratory Patho-Bios,
an efficient observatory of Plant Pathogens
in West Africa in the context of climate
change

C. Brugidou (1) ; E. Traoré (2) ; F. Tiendrébéogo (3) ; I. Néya (3) ; D. Sérémé (3) ; I. Wonni (4) ; M. Bangraiz (5) ; C. Tollenaere (5) ; L. Nitiema (6) ; P. Nikiéma (6) ; E. Zida (6) ; L. Ouedraogo (4) ; S. Nacro (6) ; O. Traoré (6)

(1) IRD, Département Environnement Resources,
Montpellier, France; (2) INERA, Ouagadougou -Kamboinsé,
Burkina Faso: (3) INERA, Ouagadougou-Kamboisé, Burkina Faso; (4) INERA, Bobo Diolasso, Burkina Faso; (5) IRD, Département environnement et ressources, Montpellier, France; (6) INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

The International Joint Laboratory (LMI) entitled observatory of Plant Pathogens in West Africa: Biodiversity and Biosafety (LMI-Patho-Bios) has been formally launched in Burkina Faso. LMI-Patho-Bios was initiated by the national research institute of Burkina Faso, "Institut de l'Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA) and the French Research Institute for Development (IRD) which have signed a memorandum of understanding to drive a five years research project on bio surveillance of plant pathogens. LMI-Patho-Bios is established at INERA on two sites. It is mainly located at Kamboisé research station of INERA (Ouagadougou) with a secondary location at Faso, ko-Ba research station (Bobo-Diolasso). LMI-Patho-Bios is interested on all important crops in West Africa including cereal crops (rice, maize, sorghum, millet), root and tuber crops (yaam, cassava, sweet potato and potato), legume crops, vegetable crops and fruits. Its main goal is to develop a powerful open field observatory platform for bio surveillance in order to study plant pathogens interactions, diversity and evolution of pathogen populations in the context of global warming change which is expected to lead to major changes in plant diseases epidemic risks. Rice is used as model crop in such a platform which will significantly contribute for better understanding of the emergence of new plant diseases in a context of continuing climate change. Surveys will be made on common experimental plots located in different agroecological area in Burkina Faso and in West Africa to follow the dynamics and aggressiveness of pathogen populations. The major activities consist on diagnosis and characterization of plant bio-aggregators as well as epidemiology study of rice pathogens: viruses (RMYV, RSNV), bacteria (Xanthomonas oryzae, Burkholderia sp), fungi (Magnaporta grisea), and nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). LMI-Patho-Bios has also developed a strong regional network with several national research systems (NARS) and Universities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and contribute in the capacity building of researchers, research technicians, students and agricultural extension officers. Finally, the joint laboratory will train and promote knowledge dissemination to farmers and extension officers on good agricultural practices in terms of recognition and proper management of bio-aggregators. Furthermore, LMI-Patho-Bios will contribute to develop strategic technological tools to help African farmers to better adapt to, and to mitigate the effects of climate change.

P-3320-07

Post harvest challenges & economic consequences and opportunities. Case study of Rwanda

H. Cesar (1) ; T. Doucha (1) ; T. Ratinger (1)

(1) Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Economic and Development, 16500 Praha 6, Suchodl, Czech Republic

The total agricultural product loss of 23.5% in Rwanda is due to poor post-harvest processing of agricultural products, when valued in monetary terms reflects a tremendous loss in the economy. Deficits in food items or financial loss should not have occurred if post-harvest losses were reduced through proper processing and preservation from harvest to consumption. Such a situation does not only reduce the national income but also it generates a problem of malnutrition in population, 43% in children in Rwanda is subjected to malnutrition. The loss ranges from 5 to 40% of production in Sub Saharan Africa. This exceeds the total food aid received by countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

Both government and private institutions needs to invest in much effort in research and extension toward improving and modernizing post-harvest facilities for attaining more efficient market infrastructure and distribution channels. The aim of this research is evaluation of post harvest losses of different cereals. The objective of the economic impact caused by post harvest losses by quantifying the price discounts which small farmers face when selling damaged cereal and establishment of a postharvest model that can tackle the postharvest losses.

Different methods will be applied and include quantitative methods and qualitative methods. In interview, use of algorithm that operates on two data sets of a set of postharvest loss profiles and a set of seasonal data to

assess the post harvest losses level. The double-hurdle model and standard regression models will be used to identify the level of impact of post harvest losses damages to evaluate the economic loss caused by this damage.

P-3320-08

For a sustainable agriculture according to land suitability, dietary needs and climate scenarios

A. Di Paola (1) ; MC. Rulli, (2) ; M. Santini (3)

(1) Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystems Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy; (2) Politecnico di Milano, Department of civil and environmental engineering, Milano, Italy; (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Viterbo, Italy

A large portion of agricultural production is funneled into animal feed or biofuels despite widespread hunger and undernutrition. Predictions foresee global demand for biofuels increasing from 81 billion of litres in 2008 to 172 billion litres in 2020, coinciding with an additional 40 million hectares of land converted for biofuel crops. According to the Milan protocol (http://www.mlanprotocol.com/), a third of the global food production is used to feed livestock. Of the same 7 billion people on earth, 1 billion are without access to drinking water, which causes the death of 4,000 children each day. In contrast, 15,000 litres of water are needed for the production of a single kilogram of beef. In this work we tried to evaluate the advantages and feasibility of options to optimize the production, promotion and distribution of food with a high protein content (so as to remain equal nutritional quality of the meat) to reduce the footprint of water consumption and GHGs¹ emissions from the agricultural sector and to recover the availability of agricultural land as well. As example it is recognize that if the same amount of plant protein produced from protein-rich legumes is used directly for human consumption rather than for feed (currently 95%) up to 75 times the land currently required to grow feed crops could be recovered, up to 40-103 cubic meters of water could be saved per each recovered hectare and, also, emissions should be contained thanks to the nitrogen-fixing behavior of promising protein-rich crops.

By means of crop modeling coupled with emission-climate and diet scenarios, and adopting an ensemble approach that favors robust evaluations comprehensive of uncertainty flagging, we show how to it is possible to formulate different agri-food solutions for a sustainable agriculture compatible to land suitability, water availability, dietary diversity, and climate projections. In particular, agri-food options we investigate include i) identification of protein-rich legumes and their suitable area of culture according both with the current and projected climate, ii) their contribution to limit environmental footprints (GHG, water, land) and iii) the optimal compromise of crop production used for human consumption vs feed such as to ensure a balanced diet between meat and lacto-ovo-vegetarian consumptions compatible to climate change, water consumption and land recovery issues.

P-3320-09

Pre determination of floods in the Senegal River Valley: application between Bakel and Matam

Y. Dieme (1) ; S. Sambou (2) ; VB. Traoré (2) ; MT. Cissé (1) ; C. Diatta (2) ; M. Bop (1)

(1) Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluide /FST/ UCAD, Physique, Dakar, France; (2) Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des fluides, Physique, Dakar, Senegal

The risk of flooding in the valley of the Senegal River remain important. These floods more and more recurrent can be explained by a combination of several factors. Extreme weather events due to climate change have significantly increased the intensity of the rain causing flooding in many regions and countries around the world. Important contributions uncontrolled tributaries of BAKOYE and FALEME, releases made at Manantali representing approximately 40% of volumes sold, but also the low volume of water released downstream of the Diama dam contribute to inundation. The consequences of these floods are sometimes heavy in terms of loss of life, of health, of education, of economy
and of infrastructure. The determination of flood risk areas is important to anticipate and protect populations. For this we used coupled models HECRAS and ARC-GIS to determine the areas likely to be flooded between Bakel and Matam. These flood risk were studied with decennial, centennial and millennial flows. The results are promising and suggest that HEC-RAS with ArcGIS can be used to set up an early warning system on the Bakel, Matam reach.

P-3320-10

Modelling the current and future dry-sea-
son distribution of Encosternum delegor-
guei (Hem., Tessaratomidae) in sub-Saha-
ran Africa

C. Dzerezos (1); E. B. (1); W. E. (1); G. D. (2)

(1) University of the Witwatersrand, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) SANBI, Climate change and bio-adaptation division, Cape Town, South Africa

Rural communities in South Africa, Malawi and Zimbabwe annually harvest from winter aggregations of the edible stinkbug Encosternum (=Haplosterna) delegorguei Spinola. Using a regional maximum entropy modelling method (MAXENT) for winter field records of E. delegorguei, current and future climate scenarios were identified. Winter precipitation and to a lesser degree summer precipitation and winter temperature were the climatic variables found to limit the regional distribution of E. delegorguei. The receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) yielded an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.995, indicating a reliable model although interpretations must consider the influence of elevation for this inset. A testable hypothesis regarding future distribution of E. delegorguei in the face of climate change has been formulated for its winter range. Predator-prey relationships and food source are also influencing the occurrence of E. delegorguei and may override the influence of climate. The modelled current distribution identifies potential new sites in areas of similar climate which may be unknown to harvesters. Areas for mini-livestock pilot studies provide opportunities for extending commercial potential and ensuring a sustainable nutritional food during a period of food scarcity.

P-3320-11

Economic implications of climate change
in Sub-Saharan agricultural system: short
term impacts and opportunities for irriga-
tion

F. Ebuli (1); F. Bosello (2); L. Campagnolo (3); M. Mistry (4)
(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Economic
analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Venice, Italy;
(2) University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of economics,
Milan, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy; (4)
Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Department of economics,
Venice, Italy; (5) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (6) Ca' Foscari University
of Venice, Economics, Venice, Italy

(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Venice, Italy; (2) University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of economics, Milan, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy; (4) Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Department of economics, Venice, Italy; (5) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (6) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Economics, Venice, Italy

This research examines the climate related impacts and
adaptation options in Sub-Saharan Africa agriculture in a
recurrent dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
framework with world coverage. Differently from most of the
global CGE models treating the land supply in a very
simultistic way, here we introduce land heterogeneity
differentiating between rainfed and irrigated cropland.
The irrigation production function is built upon the estimates
of unitary investments from FAO and considering the
current level of irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Under this
new specification, each agricultural sector can substitute
rainfed land with an irrigated bundle composed of irrigated
land and capital and allows considering differentiated
climate change impacts.

The first step of the analysis is the assessment of the
climate change impacts. The reference scenario is the
SSPS, to ensure consistency with the climate scenario
described below. It is worth mentioning that the time
frame of the analysis is 2030, even though climate change
impacts are expected to increase more than proportionally
later than 2030. However, adaptation strategies imply
decisions in the very short term and can lead to delay
in taking actions against future climate change. For the
impact assessment, two climate scenarios in line with

RCP8.5 are analyzed. The first assumes constant CO2
(1960 level, 316.27 ppm), while in the second scenario
CO2 increase over time mirroring RCP8.5 concentration.
Biophysical changes in land productivity by crop and land
type are taken by the LPJ-ML model run according to the
CanESM General Circulation Model and are exogenously
introduced in the CGE model.

Without "CO2 fertilization effect", due to the short term considered, a few countries/regions, namely Nigeria, Senegal, Madagascar, Botswana and Rest of West Africa are better off in terms of agricultural production; on the other hand, Malawi, Mozambique and the Rest of South Central Africa are the most damaged countries in terms of yields reduction. Where agricultural production drops, the dependence from imports increases, clearly highlighting the effects of economic vulnerability to climate change. The overall effect on Sub-Saharan African economies is summarised by the GDP growth change compared to the reference scenario and ranges between -1.6% (Mozambique) and +1.6% (Nigeria). The "CO2 fertilisation effect" scenario has uniformly a positive effect on yields. Mozambique is the only country with production losses in all agricultural sectors compared to the reference scenario. The impact on GDP is generally positive; only Mozambique and Rest of South Central Africa experience a GDP loss of 0.6 and 0.1%, respectively.

Overall, when the «CO2 fertilization» effect is not accounted for, Eastern and South Central Africa experiments negative changes in yields also in such a short time horizon. Extending irrigation practices represents a key strategy to cope with climate change and at the same time to favour development. We compute ex-ante the additional irrigation required such to compensate the production losses due to climate change and records the output of the «No climate change» scenario. This information is combined with country specific unitary costs of irrigation projects from FAO to estimate the required amount of investments. Such an additional flow of capital for irrigation in the agricultural sectors is subtracted to the rest of the economic system. This approach allows highlighting the inherent trade-off within adaptation plans: allocating more investments to agriculture deteriorates the capital stock available for developing the rest of the economic system.

The outcome of increased irrigation in the country targets is heterogeneous. In most cases, irrigation provides higher benefits than costs. This is explained by the higher marginal productivity of capital for irrigation than in other productive sectors, reflected by the large increase in crop yields, from crops grown with irrigation systems. Nevertheless, in Mozambique and Rest of South Central Africa, the most vulnerable countries to climate change, extending irrigation is not sufficient to bring back production to the reference scenario levels. This lack of responsiveness can be explained by the low degree of internationalization of the agricultural sectors that limits the expansion of exports in spite of higher productivity.

P-3320-12

The contribution of fruits and vegetables
production to poverty alleviation, nutrition
and environment in Africa

D. Feliciano (1)

(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Over the last 20 years, the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, both in their crude and processed form, has significantly increased. According to Mal et al. (n.d.), it is only in recent years that there is an increasing awareness of the potential of native tropical fruit species as sources of dietary vitamins, minerals and energy. Rising incomes and growing consumer interest in product variety, freshness, convenience and year round availability are among the main reasons for this increasing demand (Diop & Jaffee, date). Ruel et al. (2005) recognises that the consumption of fruits and vegetables increase when gross domestic product per capita goes up, but cautions that this is not a fully linear relation as the overall percentage of the food budget allocated to fruits and vegetables is low (4-16%). Fruit and vegetables are rich sources of micronutrients, needed by children for optimal growth and development (WHO/FAO, 2004). Energy, protein, vitamins (A, C, D, and B-complex), and minerals (iron, zinc, iodine) are required for the growth of muscle tissue and bones, brain development, and bodily functions such as the immune
system or co-factors for enzymes. WHO (2009) estimates that 250 million preschool children are vitamin A deficient and as a consequence between 250 000 to 500 000 become blind every year. Most national and international dietary guidelines are in agreement that consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables is a healthy food choice and generally needs to be increased. The World Health Organisation recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of fruit and vegetables especially for children, and many countries have programmes to promote consumption (FAO/WHO, 2004). Several initiatives have recognised the importance of the consumption of fruits and vegetables to deal with micronutrient deficiencies. One of these is the Global Fruit and Vegetable for Health Initiative (PROFA/PROFEL), launched by FAO and WHO in 2003. This was followed by the elaboration framework for action in 2004 which objective was to guide the development of cost-effective interventions to promote adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables for health at national or sub-national level (FAO/WHO, 2004). In addition, regional workshops have been held between 2004 and 2014 promoting the consumption of fruits and vegetables, within healthy diets and lifestyles, in the different continents. In 2007, the World Vegetable Centre (AVRDC) submitted a pre-proposal on High-Value Crops - Fruits and Vegetables to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The objective of this proposal was broader since it aimed at helping the poor to take advantage of the economic and nutritional value of high-value fruit and vegetables for income generation, job creation, food security and health, taking into account environmental sustainability. However, this proposal did not go ahead.

This papers reviews the literature and analyse FAOSTAT database to investigate how the production of fruits and vegetables contribute to:

1. Poverty alleviation;

2. Improved nutrition and health;

3. Improved natural environment and ecosystem services

The focus of the paper is Africa. Food consumption patterns have been progressively analysed in developing countries over the past 30 years. However, food production and consumption patterns remain poorly understood in Africa, particularly for fruits and vegetables.

P-3320-13

Using phosphorites mine wastes to
improve soil fertility and crop production
in Togo and in the West African region
for food security in a context of climate
change

K. Gnandi (1)

(1) University of Lome, Dpt of Geology, Lome, France

Phosphorites are been mined in the areas of Hahotoe-Kopago (Southern Togo) in the Tertiary coastal basin since 1960. The exploited raw phosphorite is naturally enriched with trace metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Ba, Sr, F, U) and rare earths. Phosphorites are transported to the factory of Kpéme close to the beach where they are washed by seawater using sieving and hydrocyclone separation techniques. The process of carser waste and muddy fine-grained clayey phosphorites tailings. The solid waste is disposed on soil, on the beach and the muddy waste fraction is dumped directly into the sea without any treatment. About 2.9 million of tons of mining waste are dumped annually into the coastal waters of Togo and causes transboundary marine pollution between Togo, Benin and Nigeria, coastal habitat degradation and the reduction of fish stock.

The phosphorite factory of Kpéme Togo has 5 chains for the treatment of raw phosphorite to commercial pure phosphorite. Each chain produces 1600 tons of muddy phosphorite waste per day. Chemical analysis showed that phosphorites waste contain up to 18 % P2O5, clay minerals and numerous numeric elements such as Co, Cu, Ni, Cr, Fe, Zn, Mo, Se. and can be used for soil fertilization and crops productivity according laboratory and field experiment. Coagulation and flocculation methods in big decantation basins, or decantation in hydrocyclones are necessary to recover high amounts of solid waste that can be treated and use directly for soil fertilization in Togo and other countries in the West African region for food security in a context of climate change.

P-3320-14

Marriage of traditional knowledge and
modern science to build the resilience of
food security systems in Pacific Island
Countries

V. Jese (1) ; J. Maeke (1) ; M. Wairiu (1) ; M. Nand (1) ; E. Holland (1)

(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji

Pacific Island Countries prioritized increase agricultural production as a way for sustainable development. Agricultural products can also contribute to energy security and demonstrate by many developed and developing countries in the world. However, the question remains as to how can increase agricultural productivity against increasing pressures and uncertainties and with limited information on soil, climate and crops or how we can optimize crop productivity and get the best outcomes from our crop management practices and limited arable land areas... Research conducted on both high islands and atolls reveal different level of vulnerabilities including types of crops, their environmental performance and technologies used. Understanding the vulnerability of the food security systems at the community level is very important in order to strategically build their resilience. Farmers in studied countries in the Pacific apply both traditional practices and modern innovations to improve their resilience. Employing the holistic approach including climate and weather information (current and future), soil information (physical and chemical), crop or variety suitability and optimized integrated crop management (traditional and modern practices) to improve crop productivity is the way forward for a resilience food security system.

P-3320-15

Agriculture is neither the culprit, nor the
solution, to climate change

R. Kröbel (1) ; H. Janzen (1)

(1) Lethbridge Research Center, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

It may be obvious, but agriculture's primary function is to produce food. It is the nature of agricultural systems that they do leak greenhouse gases as part of the food production function, and they undoubtedly contribute to climate change. However, any greenhouse gas component that is emitted was prior fixated from the atmosphere and will be recycled to and from atmosphere eventually. This is fundamentally different from the process of burning fossil carbon compounds that adds ever more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere for an everlasting effect of climate warming. Carbon sequestration is seen as solution to this problem, and one option that has been widely promoted is the increase and (long-term) storage of soil carbon in agricultural soils. Thus (based on the past versus now principle of life cycle analysis approaches), producers can now promote their production as environmentally friendly when they increase the carbon stock in their soils. The problem is that soil carbon cannot increase endlessly, and so this approach benefits producers who switch away from systems that are environmental performance rather than producers that were environmentally friendly all along. On top of that, soil carbon gains only make up a minor fraction of the carbon fixated by agricultural systems initially. Therefore, we propose the following concepts to re-assess the role agriculture plays in climate change:

* Producers benefits should be based on the amount of soil carbon stock (and thus also benefit from increasing them), but the emphasis would be on maintaining the soil carbon stock

* Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture should be charged against the carbon the system fixated in total (net primary productivity - nitrous oxide - enteric methane - soil respiration), as tremendous amounts of fixated carbon are exported from farms each year to feed the human population

The onus should not be on the farmer to responsibly store the carbon resource they produce, similar to the oil industry that is not responsible to educate the consumer towards responsible consumption and utilization of its
products. However, if our goal is to remove carbon from the atmosphere, utilizing the tremendous amounts of biomass produced each year on agricultural soils might be a more suitable solution for long-term storage than highly technical and energy consuming alternatives. For this purpose, storage of nutrient depleted crop straw or already collected and concentrated manure and waste products could prove to be cheaper and more successful.

P-3320-16

Fitting neglected and underutilised crops
into climate change adaptation strategies

T. Mabhaudhi (1) ; A. Modi, (1)

(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Crop Science, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Agriculture is the predominant activity sustaining
livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa with about 70% of
the region's population relying on agriculture for their
sustenance. In this region, about 95% of agriculture is
primarily rainfed and relies mainly on a few starchy cereal
and root and tuber crops for dietary provision. Climate
change and variability are expected to result in increased
variability of rainfall as well as severity and intensity of
extreme weather events such as drought and floods. This
places pressure on food and nutritional security within a
region that is already behind with achieving Millennium
Development Goal -1. Consequently, there has now been
movement across the region to develop climate change
adaptation strategies at various levels. These strategies,
which include climate smart agriculture, are mainly
focusing on the major crops. There is a need to include
alternative crops - the neglected and underutilised crop
species (NUCS). These are crops that have historically
formed the rich tapestry of the agro-biodiversity that
exists within the region. By definition, NUCS are crops that
have not been previously classified as major crops, have
previously been under-researched, currently occupy low
levels of utilisation and are mainly confined to smaller
farming areas. Historically, NUCS have played an important
role in ensuring community and household food and
nutrition security through providing healthy alternatives
when the main crop failed or during periods in-between
subsequent harvests. The promotion of a few major crops
during the Green Revolution subsequently led to their
relegation to their current although they still offer much
potential. Across much of SSA, water availability remains
the major limiting factor to crop production, threatening
food security of vulnerable groups. It is also expected that
water would be the primary medium through which impacts
of climate change and variability would be experienced.
Most NUCS are believed to be resilient and adapted to a
range of ecological niches, low input agriculture and may
have tolerance to abiotic stresses such as drought. This
makes them important future crops for SSA's smaller
farmer's on marginalised lands especially under predicted
climate change. Their inclusion in climate change
adaptation strategies would offer sustainable solutions
built upon existing agro-biodiversity of communities
within the region.

P-3320-17

L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles
d'importation : Un moyen de contrecarrer
le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

M. Moughoue (1)

(1) Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Génie Rural (Hydraulique Agricole), Alger, Algeria

L'Algérie est classée parmi les 17 pays qui souffrent le plus du manque d'eau à travers le monde.

En effet, avec moins de 300 m3 / habitant / an d'eau
renouvelable, l'Algérie dispose de moins de 30% du seuil
téorique de rareté fixé par la Banque Mondiale à 1000
m3 / hab. / an.

Etant dans l'impossibilité d'étendre sa SAU et/ou
d augmenter les surfaces irriguées, pour coumbler le
déficit alimentaire, l'Algérie a recours à des importations
massives de produits alimentaires, particulièrement les
céréales et leurs dérives.

Ajouté à cela les produits agricoles non-alimentaires.

Ces importations, bien qu'elles représentent une
hémorragie financière très importante pour le pays, elles
ont au moins un aspect positif représenté par les quantités
impressionnantes d'eau Virtuelles qu'elles procurent
à l'Algérie estimées à plus de 40 milliards de m3 pour
l'année 2012.

C'est dans ce cadre que s'inscrit notre étude dans laquelle
nous essayons de quantifier ces quantités d'eau Virtuelles
qui contribuent grandement à soulaguer temporairement le
pays de son problème de manque d'eau.

P-3320-18

Small farmers and their perceptions of
climate, environmental and social changes:
the stories behind vegetable production
that could affect food and nutritional secu-
rity in Brazil

C. Nolasco (1) ; FS. Pacheco, (1) ; LS. Soler (2) ; J. Ometto (1)
; M. Lahsen, (1)

(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth
system science centre (ccst), São José dos Campos,
SP, Brazil; (2) National Center for Monitoring and Early
Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São Jose dos
Campos, Brazil.

Brazil's National Council for Food and Nutrition Security (CONSE) defines and advocates food security as "the realization of everyone's right to regular and permanent access to quality food in sufficient quantity without compromising access to other essential needs, based on health promoting food practices that respect cultural diversity and that are healthy, economically and environmentally sustainable." The Brazilian Federal Government has institutionalized the right to adequate food as a Citizens Social Right. Even so, access to adequate food is far from a reality in Brazil. Results of a Health Ministry's study (2009) shows that 18.9 % of the population consumes five servings daily (400 grams of vegetables/day) as recommended by the World Health Organization. In a context of rapid urbanization and ever greater majority of the Brazilian population is concentrated in urban areas, where food demand thus rises. The increasing distance between the cultivation sites and where they are consumed results in increased food losses due to the high perishability of vegetables. This, together with the greater need for packaging, refrigeration and transportation raises prices, reducing the poorer populations' access to these foods which are crucial for a healthy human diet. Studies have shown that the intake of more than five portions of fruit and vegetables a day significantly reduces risk of death. Oyebode et al. (2014) found that vegetables had the strongest health protective effect compared to other foods, with each daily portion reducing overall risk of death by 16%. In this sense, the Brazil Health Ministry recently (2014) launched a new nutritional guide which emphasizes the consumption of natural or minimally processed foods in great variety, noting that especially foods of plant origin are "the basis for diets that are nutritious, delicious, appropriate, and supportive of socially and environmentally sustainable food systems.» Diets link environmental and human health (Tilman and Clark, 2014), and the incentive for vegetables consumption should rely on a well-organized food system that can provide the population with healthy products, produced in a sustainable manner and resilient against the effects of climate change and other environmental stresses. However, olfactory production in Brazil is marked by a profound lack of reliable data about the number of farmers, their cultivation methods, use of natural resources, etc. There is an even greater lack of knowledge about the human dimension of the food system, including factors and experiences which will influence whether small farming will be sustained and able to contribute in meeting the future demand and the governmental prescriptions for a healthy diet.

Based on field research in the micro-region of São José dos Campos in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, this work investigates who the vegetable producers are and how they are experiencing and adapting to the changes in market-related, environmental and socio-economic conditions affecting their work and lives. The micro region studied is composed of eight municipalities, with 1,406,315 inhabitants, and is part of the Exagonal Metropolitan Complex of São Paulo, one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world with more
than 20 million inhabitants. The field research, conducted between 2013 and 2015, included an initial investigation phase to locate the farmers within the micro region, followed by more in-depth field visits to the agricultural sites and semi-structured interviews with the farmers. The method adopted was the narrative analysis focusing on the stories told by the farmers. Some data extracted from the interviews was also georeferenced using GIS tools in Arc GIS 10.1 to assist in the visualization of the producers' characteristics along the study area. The results showed beyond the economic, health and environmental aspects involved in the management of their crops. It shows their beliefs and values related to their activity; the role of the institutions in their productive condition; their perception about the recent extreme events affecting the Brazil's Southeast region and how their production is being affected; the pressures related to urbanization and population concentration, such as elevation of land prices and insecurity due to theft and violence; and difficulties to perpetuate their activity and keep the interest of their heirs in the face of changes in consumption patterns, market channels and the globalization process in the food system.

## P-3320-19

### Traditional faming practices and water management for Climate change adaptation in Sri Lanka

RU. Piyadasa (1)

(1) University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Geography Department, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is one of the few countries in the world that has had a thriving and vibrant irrigation based civilization for over two thousand years. The cascade system, they used for traditional organic cultivation of paddy, harmonized environment and development, are and environmentally sound and sustainable manner. Sri Lanka history is deeply connected with its hydraulic civilization and its erroneously named as a community based cascade ecosystem. In Sri Lanka water is collected using man-made interconnected cascade tanks ecosystems in dry areas mainly for paddy cultivation. These tanks comprise of various components of ecological importance. The water is distributed mainly in two ways, either by impounding a river or by diverting the river through canals. In early days villages were built around tanks to allow easy access to water for agricultural purposes. Tanks were also important for cultural, spiritual and religious reasons, as water is a symbol of life and purity. While the challenges are daunting, they also provide opportunities for local communities, business and government to innovate for the benefit of communities, economies and the global environment. The cascade ecosystems, throughout the Sri Lanka in particular, are under unprecedented pressure, threatening prospects for sustainable development. Tanks were constructed mainly in two ways, either by impounding a river or by diverting the river through canals. In early days villages were built around tanks to allow easy access to water for organic agricultural purposes. Tanks were also important for cultural, spiritual and religious reasons, as water is a symbol of life and purity. Cascade ecosystems were originated within the community and practiced over many generations. Presently managed by community Farmer Organizations and government. The all the cascade ecosystem based irrigation systems were operated and managed by the community and responsibility rested with the chief of the village community based organization. Ecosystem that helped the community in passing through the difficult times during the droughts; a system that nurtured the development of drought resistance through animal husbandry and fragmented land ownership; and that provided opportunities for inland fishing and human and animal nutrition. The ecosystem operate with collection of rainwater harvesting technology; a soil moisture and groundwater maintaining technology; a soil erosion and siltation control technology; a technology that ensured the maintenance of ecological balance; a technology that promoted social cohesion and need for community leadership; a system that accommodated spiritual development which promoted egalitarian attitudes. On the basis of their form and appearance, the cascading systems would have operated as an ideal community based adaptation to climate change.

## P-3320-20

### Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change in Brunei Darussalam: A Step towards Food Security

S. Shams (1)

(1) Institut Teknologi Brunei, Civil Engineering, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam

The world's population is increasing rapidly and expected to reach 8 billion by the year 2020. The standard of living is also increasing with the advancement of new technologies and the increasing life span of individuals. The demand for food production will increase too and particularly the developing countries will face a new set of challenges. The impact of increased demand for food production will significantly fall in the agricultural sector. Rural economies, which are based upon and dominated by agricultural, pastoral and forest production, are highly sensitive to climate variations and change. So too are the limitations and food security of those who participate directly in these activities, supply inputs to them, or use their outputs to produce other goods and services. The climate change is a major threat to the existing agricultural practice in many developing countries. The continuous increase in temperature with intensive precipitation over a short period will have adverse affect on the agricultural output of Brunei Darussalam. There were 115 reported cases of flooding and 105 landslides during the last rainy season, the worst social and economic damage ever happened in Brunei. Over the past few decades, Brunei is experiencing a rapid change in climatic condition particularly on the increased temperature (0.0375°C) and rainfall (37.62 mm) received annually. The economy of Brunei is mostly relying on oil and gas sector which consist of up to 90% of the country exports. In 2007, Brunei's oil production saw a reduction of 11.5% to approximately 13,000 barrels per day compared to the output in 1979, which surpassed 240,000 barrels per day. Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei's National Vision) has been established by Brunei Economic Development Board (BEDB), as to give awareness to the population not to rely fully on oil and gas productions. The vision formulates a plan to increase employments, enhancing the current education and upskilling the labour force by introducing more institutions to the related work, and initiate a more sustainable economy. Due to ample amount of land availability, Brunei can make use of the land resources as potential assets. An improved and regulated country's agriculture can give a better and sustainable future, not just to the population but also increase the government revenues. Intensification of agriculture and the associated increase in productivity has already saved about one billion hectares of wildlife habitat across the world (Pratley, 2008). Therefore, the study aims to synthesize the relationship between climate change and agriculture production in Brunei Darussalam. The study focus on the adaptation of coping strategies with emphasis on training to agricultural extension workers and farmers to ensure increased productivity, a step towards food security. Technical change is one of the key elements that influence the pace of agricultural growth in the developing countries. Agriculture in Brunei Darussalm must undergo a transformation to become "climate-smart" in order to prevent climate change from further exacerbation. To adapt to climate change, farmers need new and improved technologies, skills and knowledge, or in many cases, to be linked to existing technologies which are currently inaccessible. These may include, for example, improved water management using rainwater harvesting or soil stabilization techniques; soil conservation and erosion control through terracing and agro forestry; and greater use of renewable energy through biogas and solar PV.

## P-3320-21

### Genetic analysis of drought tolerance among selected bread wheat (triticum aestivum) lines

H. Shimelis (1) ; T. Tsilo (2) ; M. Learnmore (3)

(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Acci, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa; (2) ARC, Small grains, Bethelehem, South Africa; (3) University of KwaZuluNatal, Acci, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Wheat production in most parts of the world including the Sub-Saharan Africa is currently being threatened by the
increasing incidences of periodical droughts emanating from climate change. This is causing the entire continent, including South Africa, which is the region's largest producer of the crop to increasingly depend on imported wheat. There is, therefore, a need to continuously search for useful variation for drought tolerance improvement among wheat breeding stocks within the local seed banks and among international nurseries. Currently, there is little documentation of the potential genetic contribution of these lines with reference to drought tolerance. This is limiting the development and adoption of better adapted varieties which is causing a decline in dry land wheat production and productivity. The use of biochemical selection methodologies and next generation sequencing technologies such as genotyping by sequencing (GBS), can greatly contribute to the understanding of the genetic bases of drought tolerance in wheat which have a huge and complicated genome. This study therefore, evaluates 100 genotypes for drought tolerance under controlled water application. Ninety (90) of the lines are from the CIMMYT germplasm. Ninety of which 30 are from the drought, and 60 are from the heat nurseries. Ten are commercial check varieties. The specific objective of this study is to determine the genetic diversity present among the selected wheat lines for drought tolerance based on phenotypic, biochemical (proline and mannitol accumulation due to drought stress) and molecular (genotyping by sequencing (GBS) analysis. The greenhouse experiments are being carried out at the University of KwaZulu Natal and the field experiments are at Ukulanga Research Farm. Biochemical quantification is done at the University's Analytical Chemistry laboratories, while genotyping is being done at the Agriculture Research Council (ARC) of South Africa. Data collection for these three aspects of the study is underway and all the data analysis will be done by end of April. This study will recommend further research on the found to have considerable drought tolerance coupled with high yields for dry land commercial cultivation. Also, some drought tolerant lines will be selected to be parents for crossing with high yielding but susceptible commercial cultivars to transfer the drought tolerance traits (genes).

P-3320-22

How can food insecure smallholders gain the full potentials of climate smart agriculture (CSA)

E. Simelton (1); P. M. (2)

(1) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Hanoi, France; (2)
Chalmers University of Technology, Physical resource theory,
Gothenburg, Sweden

Integrated farming systems are often mentioned as strong
counter of Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) for meeting
food security, adaptation and mitigation objectives.
Studies on CSA-adoption typically identify two strands
of recommendations: One strand finds that “Farmers’
are already doing climate-smart practices” and some add
“... so let’s learn from them”. The other strand concludes
that “Farmers are not yet optimizing the full potential of
CSA”, meaning “more training or awareness-raising is
needed”. Thus to optimize the full potential of integrated
farming systems for CSA, we hypothesize that lessons
are exchanged between the two strands. Therefore, to
identify factors that can reduce the gap between these
two categories, we synthesized household survey results
from over 800 households in semi-tropical Viet Nam. We
characterize households in 25 villages across northern
and central Viet Nam who have adopted and those who
have not adopted integrated farming systems, including
agroforestry, home gardens, and rice-fish cultures.
The data was using direct measurements or proxies for
food security status, adaptive measures, and biophysical
inventory including biodiversity and carbon stock covering.

We highlight several gaps between farmers' practice and scientific knowledge in each of the three pillars of CSA, relating to differences between adopters and non-adopters of integrated farming systems. Households with integrated farming systems are able to make synergies between a stable household economy (food security) and adaptation. In particular, households with agroforestry had shorter economic recovery period after natural disasters than those without. In contrast, food insecure households had smaller land area, fewer integrated farming systems and less diverse production.

Land use policies have a strong influence on farmers'
crop choice through designated land uses, subsidies and

seedling supply. Home gardens, which are excluded from
land us policies, were an underestimated resource for
diversity. In particular, food secure households with home
gardens were more benign to experiment. Lastly, as no
mitigation mechanisms in place, farmers benefited neither
from the carbon sink potentials of tree plantations nor
greenhouse gas emission-reducing agricultural practices.

The study concludes that realizing the full potential of CSA-synergies requires (1) a carefully selected portfolio of context-specific technologies and improved local practices, (2) that farmers and local land use planners are able to estimate costs-and-benefits of business-as-usual versus adaptation and mitigation options, and (3) an enabling policy environment streamlined towards CSA.

P-3320-23

Clam farming in the Lagoon of Venice.
How to adapt to local and global changes?

C. Solidoro (1) ; G. Gossarini, (1) ; F. Giorgi (2) ; MC. Donata (1)

(1) Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica
Sperimentale OGS, oceanography, Trieste, Italy; (2)
International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Earth
system physics (esp) section, Trieste, Italy

Culture based fisheries and aquaculture deeply rely on the coastal and marine environmental conditions and can be highly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures and to climatic changes. Adaptation and mitigation measures to local and global changes need to be supported by information and assessments...

With this aim, a downscaling experiment linking a regional atmospheric model to local ecosystem and a target species population dynamic model was conducted to evaluate the effects of IPCC climate change scenarios on a temperature coastal lagoon ecosystem, the lagoon of Venice, along with goods and services provided by this ecosystem. Our results indicate that the changes in water temperature and reduction in plankton productivity caused by the modification of seasonal precipitation patterns will affect habitat suitability for clam growth and aquaculture. Our simulations show that aquaculture will suffer under projected future climate conditions and indicate that implementation of site- and condition-specific adaptive aquaculture management policies can mitigate the adverse effects of GC. This conclusion can be generalised to other temperature-based systems and might be of particular importance in ecological-social-economic systems where clam farming is crucial for a self-sustaining economy.

P-3320-24

Climate-smart Agriculture put into Practice:
The case of Rice Production in Southeast
Asia

R. Wassmann (1); R. Reinke (1); BO. Sander (1); P. Ficarelli, (1)

(1) International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos,
Philippines

The concept of Climate-smart Agriculture (CSA) encompasses both mitigation and adaptation practices that are fused into one comprehensive approach for devising sustainable farming systems. Rice production is an ideal model crop to illustrate the coherence of these principles as the CSA approach can draw upon a wealth of knowledge and previously developed farming practices for coping with adverse climatic conditions (to be tapped for adaptation) and for increasing resource use efficiencies (to be tapped for mitigation). Plant breeding has a proven track record to increase resilience of the rice crop against drought, submergence, salinity and heat stress. New biotechnology tools allow expeditions and precise changes in rice varieties that increase their performance under climatic stresses.

Rice is a major source of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) methane and - to a lesser extent - methane. Given that high rice yields are imperative to food security, the key to reducing GHGs is increasing resource-use efficiencies, namely of water and fertilizer. Methane is produced by the microbial community in flooded soils. In turn, water saving techniques such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can be deployed to effectively reduce methane emissions while