# Comodifying Nature, Where we were mistaken with Ecosystem Service Classification

## A. Dhungana (1)

(1) Center for Climate and Environment Research, Policy and Economics Research Unit, Lalitpur, Nepal

Economic theory driven ecosystem valuation has been the fundamental areas for the Ecosystem Service (ES) and Payment for Ecosystem Services research in the last decade. The Classification of ES by MEA 2005, has diverted the whole research community to think Nature as a Commodity and the research community for this whole decade spend their huge effort in the monetary valuation of Nature, but still we are far away from the solution within nature–human-development nexus. The major problems in this classification was with the cultural service, weighted in similar fashion with other three provisional, supporting and regulating forces. The ES classification has shown that, with all those three services, cultural service was interconnected and no way can be treated as a separate class. Besides, the complexity of natural process like hydrological cycle, nutrient cycle and climate cycle, which were categorized in regulating and supporting services needed research on the long term nature, and it can no way be monitised like other economic goods, and hence resulted in the failure to measure and manage it for the transformation of the ES. The ES economic theory like utility and welfare theories in no way could justify the interlinkage of nature and economy.

# Maintaining Habitat Connectivity for Vulnerable Ungulate to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Isfahan Province, Iran

S. Fakharian (1) ; S. Malakoutikhah (1) ; A. Soffianian (1) ; J. Senn (2)

(1) Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan university of technology, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Wsl, Zurich, Switzerland

Climate change is predicted to have substantial negative impacts on biodiversity, for a wide variety of taxa across major regions of the world. The embedded climate change, habitat fragmentation and land use change is the most important conservation land we face. Maintaining connectivity is the most recommended strategy for conserving species in onset of climate change. In this study, we identified and evaluated migration corridors for two vulnerable ungulate species, the wild sheep (Ovis orientalis isphahanica), and the goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) between Mooteh and Chamishloo wild life refuges in Isfahan province, Iran. Migration of goitered gazelle and wild sheep between these wildlife refuges is related to seasonal change in environmental conditions. To identify migration corridors, two connectivity models were used, Least–Cost Corridor (LCC), and Circuit Theory. Using LCC, two corridors were selected for each target species. The first least–cost corridors for the species included habitats of highest quality (lowest resistance) which stands for the minimum costs for movement. These corridor for goitered gazelle covered about 158 km2 (7.5% of the total area) and the one for Wild sheep covered 151 km2 (7.2% of the total area). Although the identified corridors in this study are currently used for round migrations between Mooteh and Chamishloo wildlife refuges, they are most likely to be served as one way migration corridors from Chamishloo to Mooteh protected area assisting the species to shift their ranges in response to climate change in the immediate future. Climate change in Mooteh compared to Chamishloo terms of annual rainfall (249.16 mm in Mooteh in compared to 180.9 mm in Chamishloo) and minimum average temperature (–8.5C in Mooteh compared to –1.6 C in Chamishloo) indicates that wild life refuge will be used as a refugia to buffer these ungulates from the impacts of drought and climate change in this region. We conclude that protecting and incorporating of the remaining suitable migration corridors into the existing protected areas network of Iran is an urgent need in order to secure the survival of the migratory species. As the study area is not protected at present and is very likely to be developed in near future, it is very important identifying the areas with the

easiest movement routes for future conservation which, if conserved, provide the easiest movement routes assisting species in the face of climate change and land use change. Improving connectivity is not only strategically smart, but a proven method of allowing wildlife to move in response to rapid environmental change.

# Impacts of Biodiversity Loss in the Carbon Stock and Evapotranspiration Fluxes Regulation in Brazilian Amazon

R. Ferraz (1) ; M. Simões (2) ; M. Equihual (3) ; O. Maqueo (3) ; N. Alaniz (4) ; P. Verweij (5) ; A. Alvezi (6)

(1) Embrapa, Embrapa Solos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil;

(2) Embrapa, Embrapa solos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (3) INECOL, Instituto de ecologia a.c., Veracruz, Mexico; (4)

CONABIO, Nacional nacional para o conhecimento e uso de la biodiversidad, Mexico DF, Mexico; (5) Wageningen-UR, Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands; (6) Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Programa de pós-graduação ambiente (ppgma), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Biodiversity supports many ecosystem services that are very important for climate change mitigation and adaptation, according to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) there are clear interlinkages between biodiversity and climate changes. The interlinkage between the tropical forest ecosystem biodiversity and their capacity for carbon uptake and storage as well as regulation of evapotranspiration flux. Nevertheless, land use changes and agriculture expansion reduce the ecosystems integrity modifying the functions related directly to the ecosystem services. The relationship between biodiversity loss and the ecosystem services in tropical forests, in face of the ongoing global climate change, has been quite clarified by the scientific community, but needs to be better quantified and understood. The objective of this paper is to present the methodological approach and preliminary results on the impact estimation of land use changes and ecosystem biodiversity loss in carbon stock and evapotranspiration fluxes regulation ecosystem services. In order to fulfill that goal, the carbon stock and evapotranspiration spatial models were correlated with an ecosystem integrity model, used as an indicator of biodiversity loss for the Brazilian Amazon. The methodological approach of this work consists in the generation of an "ecosystem biodiversity loss" spatial model based on probability distribution of evidence parameters (Bayesian theory – Lindley 1972). The modeling was based on learning process (dada-driven model) using the Expectation Maximization algorithm (Buntime 1994). Bayesian network has been established from an expert conceptual model that related different spatial data. The model of the maps sensing data: (i) Biomass (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (ii) EVI; (iii) LAI–Leaf Area Index (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (iv) Tree Cover (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (v) GPP–Gross Primary Productivity (MODIS/ USGS – NASA). The carbon stock ecosystem service was estimated from aboveground carbon stocks spatial model developed by Baccini et. al. (2004) within the Pantropical National Level Carbon Stocks Project held by the Woods Hole Research Center – WHRC – Boston University and the University of Maryland (MA, USA). The methodology was based on ground data, MODIS 500m imagery and GLAS LIDAR data. The evapotranspiration fluxes ecosystem service was estimated from MODIS Surface Resistance and Evapotranspiration (MOD 16), data developed by Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), College of Forestry & Conservation – University of Montana (Mu et. al., 2007). Preliminary results were promising, allowing the establishment of the probabilistic distribution spatial patterns of biodiversity loss, as well as a preliminary assessment of the relationship with the carbon stocks (aboveground biomass) and evapotranspiration fluxes. This work is part of the ROBIN Project – Role of Biodiversity in Climate Change Mitigation – sponsored by the European Union (FP7 Edict ENV. 2011.2.1.4–1. Potential of biodiversity and ecosystems for the mitigation of climate change).

**Keywords:** Spatial modeling; Bayesian networks; Climate changes; Climate mitigation

Baccini, A., Friedl, M., Woodcock, C. & Warbington, R. Forest biomass estimation over regional scales using multiscale data. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L10501 (2004).

Buntine W. Operations for learning with graphical models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2:159–225, 1994.

Lindley, D. V. (1972). Bayesian Statistics, A Review.
Philadelphia, PA: SIAM. [A sharp comprehensive review of the whole subject up to the 1970's, emphasizing its internal consistency].

Mu, Q., F. A. Heinsch, M. Zhao, and S. W. Running (2007b), Development of a global evapotranspiration algorithm based on MODIS and global meteorology data, Remote Sens. Environ., 111, S19-S36, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2007.04.015.

## P-2214-07

# A theoretical analysis of a hypothetical auction program to pay for biodiversity in Peruvian Amazon nuts (Bertholletia excelsa) ecosystems

### P. Flores Tenorio (1)

(1) La Trobe University, Department of Economics, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Peru is a megadiverse country with the second extension of forests in the Amazon basin. The design of efficient public policies for these territories is challenging due to the fragility of public institutions and lack of economic valuation of important ecosystem services provided from old-growth forests.

This paper develops a preliminary dynamic system model and a theoretical analysis from the ecological economics perspective for a key non-timber forest product of the Peruvian Amazon basin: the Amazon nut (Bertholletia excelsa). Specifically, we analyse the bioeconomic dimensions of two ecosystem services: pollination and the forest cover to provide habitat for flora and fauna.

The contribution of this paper is to present evidence that support the argument that decision makers from development countries have an excellent investment opportunity for conservation of biodiversity in indigenous lands with Amazon nuts.

## P-2214-08

# West Africa's most climate change vulnerable species: which, where and why?

### W. Foden (1) ; J. Carr, (2) ; E. Belle, (3) ; N. Burgess, (4)

(1) Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Gauteng, South Africa;

(2) IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) UNEP-WORLD Conservation Monitoring Programme, Brussels, Belgium; (4) UNEP-WORLD Conservation Monitoring Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom

West Africa supports globally high levels of species richness and endemism but this exceptional biodiversity is subject to serious ongoing anthropogenic threats, particularly from land transformation and over-exploitation. Climate change is now recognised as a serious emerging threat to biodiversity due both to its direct impacts on species' health and habitats, and because some human responses are likely to exacerbate historical threats. In order to prepare sound climate change adaptation strategies for West Africa, it's necessary to understand how biological systems will be impacted. To address this need, we carried out climate change vulnerability assessments for almost all of the region's terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes (2,854 species). Using a trait-based approach, we worked with species experts to identify traits conferring high climate change sensitivity and low adaptive capacity for each taxonomic group, and then scored each species' degree of exposure to climate change as its exposure to climate change was estimated using regional projections of future climate across their individual distribution ranges. Combining the resulting sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity scores, we categorised each species' overall climate change vulnerability. This allowed us to identify those facing highest risk from climate change, as well as the regions where such species are concentrated. Comparing the patterns of high climate change vulnerability with those of high threat from non-climate related factors allowed us to identify areas of greatest overall concern for West African species. By comparing these priorities with current protected area coverage, we highlight areas that are currently unprotected but in great need of protection, as well as the existing protected areas in which adaptation efforts should be prioritised.

## P-2214-09

# Pitfalls in reconciling greenhouse gas mitigation and biodiversity conservation

### N. Fromin (1)

(1) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Montpellier, France

Current environmental policies urgently call for climate change mitigation strategies. Among these, biological sequestration of carbon (C) in soils through plant and soil management was identified as one of the most promising. Compared to other strategies such as oceanic sequestration or solar radiation management, biological C sequestration is cost effective, ecologically more attractive, relatively easily applicable, and has minimal side effects (Cusack et al. 2014). The potential for biological C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale is estimated between 1.7 and 2.4 GT C per year, which is roughly one fourth of the 9 GT C released annually to the atmosphere through human activity.

Biodiversity is often presented as critical to explain ecosystem processes, because more diverse organisms may exploit more efficiently the resources available in their environment. Yet, altering biodiversity might have strong functional consequences for sequestration. The few meta-analyses dealing with biodiversity / ecosystem process relationships suggest, however, that protecting biodiversity is not necessarily the best way to optimize C sequestration in soils. Reciprocially, management strategies identified as favorable to C sequestration sometimes cause side effects on habitat structure and biodiversity. Because the conservation of biodiversity is also an internationally recognized priority in environmental policy, the potential for C sequestration management and its application must be assessed intimately with their consequences for biodiversity and sustainable development in the wider sense.

The proposed soil management strategies for increasing C sequestration include afforestation / reduction of deforestation, biofuel energy plantations, no-till or conservative tillage systems, nutrient management and the use of biochar. In this poster, I will present their respective potential for C sequestration, their feedbacks on biodiversity, but also their reliability, ecological risks, and their economic and social acceptance. The literature treating biological C sequestration increasingly referred to it as an 'ecosystem service' in its own right. However, as I will show, C sequestration is a complex process with strong scale dependent properties and interacting with other ecosystem functions in often non-linear ways. Therefore, I will argue that C sequestration cannot be evaluated in isolation of other ecosystem functions and should not be identified as an independent 'ecosystem service'.

Cusack et al. (2014) An interdisciplinary assessment of climate engineering strategies. Frontiers in Ecology.

## P-2214-10

# Climate change impacts on the fisheries in the Himalayan Kingdom of Nepal

### MA. Husen (1)

(1) Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Agricultural Research Station (Fisheries), Kaski, Pokhara, Nepal, Pokhara, Nepal

Besides land locked country, Nepal is home of more than 200 fish species. The resident of these species are rivers and lakes of this country. Rise of temperature with changes in precipitation have been affecting on the Himalayan river flow rate with un-expected floods and runoff. These increased flow rates have been altering the habitat of fish species. These will be affecting on the diversity of fish species in these river and lakes. The bank of rivers and lakes are known to home of many ethnic fisHERS and livelihood of these ethnic communities depends on its capture fishery. Thus, vulnerability of fisher community due to climate change is at high risk in this country. Proper adaption measures needed to combat the climate change and its hazards.
# Community Forest of Nepal: How it maintains ecosystem services and maintains sustainability?

## B. Khadka (1)

(1) Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

Community forestry is a participatory forest management system in Nepal. Till date 17,000 community forest (around 1.2 million ha) forest is managing directly from the 1.5 million people.

Research shows that the environmental services provided by the Community forest such as provisioning services, regulatory services, cultural services, supporting services, biodiversity conservation, water purification and regulation, soil erosion protection, forest recreation and carbon storage are gaining some attention and need to be protected. The future of the forests linking commercial market and climate change adaptation and mitigation issues activity to conservation objectives from past 30 years. Moreover, selling forest environmental services for the coping with climate change should ensure through the effective payment system in securing forest environmental benefits and their role in effort to eliminate rural poverty and also helps further for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The government of Nepal is developing different policy and management plans how can get more benefit from the community forest such as Payment for ecosystem services, Carbon market, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and degradation plus, ecotourism, green jobs from the forest etc which can make direct benefit to the community people and helps to cope with climate change.

This research explore how community forest maintains ecosystem services and maintains sustainability, resilience development for community?

# Sectoral contributions to the conservation of biodiversity

## M. Kok (1)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands

In 2014, governments within the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) reviewed progress in the achievement of the goals and targets set in the Strategic Plan on Biodiversity 2010-2020, as a step towards halting the loss of biodiversity as envisioned in the 2050 Biodiversity Vision. Although there has been an increase in responses to stop further loss of biodiversity, this progress is insufficient to attain most of the Aichi Targets by 2020, nor can under current trends a stabilization of biodiversity loss towards 2050 be expected. This is for a large part due to persistent increases in pressures. To be able to address these, biodiversity policies need to address primary production sectors. Developments in sectors such as food production and agriculture, wood production and forestry, energy production, water management and fisheries, largely shape the world's current and future biodiversity, as they exert direct pressures on biodiversity.

Related to the Aichi targets on sustainable use we identify different pathways that could contribute to achieving the 2050 Biodiversity Vision. Pathways are combinations of technological measures and behavioural changes, for food production and wood production and consumption. Biodiversity goals in these pathways are realized as part of a broader set of sustainability objectives, including eradicating hunger, feeding an increased and more wealthy world population, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change and controlling air pollution. The pathways were evaluated, using the IMAGE-GLOBIO integrated assessment modelling framework. The analysis shows that it is possible to couple improvements in the trend of biodiversity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the well-being of all people simultaneously, but that this requires substantial transformations in the sectors we researched.

# Climate change impacts on global faunas: the causes and consequences of range shifts

E. Leyequien (1); J. Verboom (2); J.A. Harvey (3); T. Essens (3); C. Vos (2); WF. De Boer (4)

(1) CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION CIENTÍFICA DE YUCATÁN, Unidad de recursos naturales, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico;

(2) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) Netherlands Institute of Ecology and -KNAW, Department of terrestrial ecology, Wageningen, Netherlands; (4) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Resource ecology group, Wageningen, Netherlands

Anthropogenic climate change has affected Earth's biota on all continental and ocean territories. Global and regional climatic changes affect the world's faunas, causing among others shifts in their geographic ranges, changes in their seasonal activities, species turnover, increasing the risk of extinction, of spread of diseases and of invasive species. Species' range shifts have been the focus of attention of climate change studies, and vast amounts of correlational evidence show that the geographic range of species around the world is shifting either in latitude or elevation in response to climate change. There is no doubt of the importance of correlational studies describing the connection between the range shifts in species and climate change, however a great challenge in ecology is to commute from a simple correlational claim to the understanding of the underlying causal mechanisms. Understanding species' range shifts relative to climate changes entails knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms of the observed phenomena, to ultimately understand the future directions of global faunas under climatic changes. Mechanistic explanations of animal range shifts - or their absence - should account for ecological traits that strongly influence species' responses to climate change. For example physiological thresholds that determine climatic limits to species distributions, or biotic interactions (e.g., inter and intra-species competition) in which web intricate web relations and feedbacks influence the distribution of animal species. Other example is species' dispersal limitations that may compromise their capability to disperse at rate that is sufficient to track the changes in suitable bioclimatic space. Causing time lags and thereby leading to novel community structures and novel interactions. We propose a comprehensive framework linking mechanistic explanations to causal claims in explaining range shifts, present and future, under changing climate zones. First, we illustrate the mechanistic explanations underlying animal range shifts driven by climate changes using a series of case studies contrasting the northern and southern hemispheres. We discuss as well the resulting effects exerted by range shifts at different ecological levels, from micro-evolutionary processes through selection of phenotypes, to ecological communities and ecosystems; and identify consequential feedback loops. Our theoretical framework provides a synthetic robust broader approach that links hypotheses and underlying mechanisms to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on global faunas, and provides grounds for generalisations that can direct future research and lead to evidence-based solutions to climate change challenges.

# Biodiversity implications of REDD+ policies: assessments in Brazil and in the Congo Basin

R. Mant (1); B. Bodin, (1); A. Mosnier, (2); A. Soterroni (3); F. Ramos (3); AXY. Carvalho (4); G. Câmara, (5); J. Pirker (2); M. Obersteiner (2); D. Bokelo, (6); R. Ndinga, (6); A. Makoudjou, (7); P. Tonga, (6); V. Kapos (1)

(1) UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (2) IIASA, Luxembourg, Austria; (3) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao José dos Campos, Brazil; (4) IPEA, Brasilia, Brazil; (5) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao José dos Campos, Brazil; (6) COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon; (7) COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon

Brazil and the Congo Basin contain the largest remaining areas of tropical rainforest on earth. In both regions, there is interest in implementing policies to mitigate climate change through the Reduction of Emissions
From Deforestation and forest Degradation plus the conservation, sustainable management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) in order to mitigate climate change. Policies aimed at achieving REDD+ objectives will have major impacts on future land use and resulting land cover, both inside and outside forest areas, which in turn affect biodiversity. Countries in both regions have committed both to supporting the achievement of the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets in its Strategic Plan, and to addressing and respecting the safeguards developed by the UNFCCC to minimise social and environmental risks and enhance the benefits of REDD+. Therefore, understanding how different policies may influence land use and biodiversity is essential to informed decision-making and identifying REDD+ policies that can help safeguard biodiversity.

We are assessing the potential impacts of REDD+ policies on biodiversity in Brazil and the Congo Basin by using an economic land use model (GLOBIOM), to project future land use and changes in land cover under different scenarios. The biodiversity impact of the different scenarios is then explored by assessing the locations of projected land use change in relation to ecological regions, nationally and regionally identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation and species ranges. The effect of potential differences between ecoregions in land use policies and their application are explored. The impacts on species depend on both their habitat requirements and their distributions relative to different types of land use change.

The different assessments of impacts on biodiversity can in combination inform both REDD+ and biodiversity policies. In Brazil, both the implementation, and the impacts, of the Federal Code has influenced between Amazonia and other biomes. This therefore has implications for the species living in the different biomes. Analysis of the impacts on threatened species of different assumptions regarding the implementation of the forest code can inform the classification of species threat status. It also allows an assessment of the compatibility of these different scenarios with achievement of Aichi Biodiversity Target 12 on reducing extinction of threatened species. In the Congo Basin two important future scenarios relate to the contribution of protected areas and forest concessions to reducing deforestation. The assessment results highlight that not only is the current network of protected areas unevenly distributed across the different ecological regions, but also the impact of their enforcement on deforestation varies between ecological regions. Expanding the network and strengthening the effectiveness of existing protected areas to support biodiversity objectives would also contribute to achieving Aichi Biodiversity Target 11.

P-2214-15

## Multi-Temporal cover patterns using Landsat TM in the Tapajós National Forest and its surroundings: a case study

L. Martorano (1); L. Lisboa, (2); C. Vettorazzi, (2); R. Muniz, (2); N.S. Beltrão (3)

(1) s/nº, Agrometeorology, Belem, Brazil; (2) ESALQ,

Piracicaba, Brazil; (3) UEPA, Belém, Brazil

Brazil's Tapajós National Forest (Flona Tapajós) — a designated Conservation Unit (CU) under the Sustainable Use Group created by Decree No. 73,684 (February 1974) — measures approximately 527,000 hectares (ICMBio, 2012). This Decree has induced constant changes in usage patterns and ground cover, especially in its surroundings, due to activities related to agriculture, livestock and timber harvesting. In June 2012, Federal Law No. 12,678 reduced the area of Tapajós Flona by approximately 4% of its original size. These areas began to be called buffer zones. According to Batista et al. (2013), this reduction may lead to possible threats in the maintenance of goods and services that Flona offers, provoking with the passing of years changes in the livelihoods of surrounding communities, thus increasing pressure on the protected area. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify and map spatial distribution patterns of use and ground cover after the alterations in the landscape using data from spatio-temporal remote sensing sensors. Satellite images from the TM sensor and the Landsat-5 from July and August of 1989, 2005 and 2009 were used. Digital processing was performed: atmospheric correction, geometry correction; mosaic: classification, post-classification and definition of use classes and land

cover. We used the Geographic Information System (GIS) ArcGIS v.9.3 to construct thematic maps of the study-case, along with the following procedures: conversion of classified images to vector format for calculating the areas of thematic classes adopted this work; assembly and manipulation of geographic database and map algebra to detect changes between the years studied. In Flona Tapajós and its surroundings, between 1989 and 2005, the areas with Native Forest (NF), Regeneration (R), Recent Deforestation (RD) and Exposed Soil (ES) had remained unchanged comprised respectively 62, 6, 3 and 6% (Table 1) respectively. It is noteworthy that 11% belonged to Water bodies in both periods. In the period 1989-2005 there was a 11% reduction in NF areas. In the second period, this reduction was approximately 1%. On the other hand, the area (R) made up only 4.4% in 1989 and grew to 7.6% in 2005, reaching about 11% of the area in 2009. Areas with RD represented 5% in 1989 and 7% in 2005 and 2009, indicating that the «Government Programme Zero Deforestation in the Amazon» shows evidence of consolidation in Flona Tapajós and its surroundings. This fits with the trend in ES, which went from 4% in 1989 to 19% in 2005 and 2009. It is noteworthy that, despite the reduced fragments located within Flona Tapajós, its environment, in particular its buffer zone, underwent a robust process of human disturbance. From the results, we concluded: Between 1989 and 2005 there was a higher percentage of loss patterns in the Native Forest than in the other areas. This is likely to be stable; the method of assessment of natural and non-natural landscapes can support the understanding of the observed dynamics of use and coverage. In addition, the assessment provides support for analysis of the effects of fragmentation in this landscape. The spatiotemporal dynamics in Flona Tapajós and its surroundings indicates the importance of legally protected areas for the conservation of goods and services offered by the people as part of the Amazon Forest Strategy. In integration with other information and analysis, these dynamics may uncover possible threats to the maintenance of goods and services that sustain the biodiversity of the region.

P-2214-16

## Scenario analysis of the main drivers forces threatening the conservation of the Tapajós National Forest, Brazilian Amazon

N. Nascimento (1); L. Martorano, (2); N.S. Beltrão (3)

(1) National Institute of Spatial Research, Terrestrial system sciences department, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;

(2) Embrapa, Agrometeorologia, Belém, Brazil; (3) State University of Pará, Applied Social Sciences, Belém, PA, Brazil

Several public policies were released in an attempt to integrate the Amazon to the other regions of Brazil, in the 1960s. Amongst the main engagements on infrastructure, the government built ports, hydroelectric facilities, and opened highways such as the Transamazônica (BR 230), Cuiabá-Santarém (BR 163) and Belem-Brasilia (BR 316), triggering an aggressive process of landscape transformation and deforestation. At the same time, however, the government instituted legally protected areas in the region, such as the Tapajós National Forest (FLONA), in 1974 and 1975, and the Tapajós National Forest, in part of a regional complex, between two major highways in the region. The Tapajós National Forest suffers influence of the Transamazônica highway (BR-230) in the South, and the Cuiabá- Santarém highway (BR-163) located in its Earsten side, which leads to Santarém and Itaituba. Despite all the pressures generated by its surroundings, the protected area has presented suitable conservation indicators. However, it is noteworthy that the west side of Pará concentrates the greatest number of hydroelectric power plants, the Cargo Shipment Stations (ETS), and also the paving of highways BR-163 and BR-230. Thus, the spatiotemporal analysis intends, but not only to provide a description of changes over time, but also to point out future trends and identify higher-pressure areas. This study addresses efforts to investigate landscape changes in the Tapajós National Forest and its surroundings, which covers a total area of 19,627 km², including the municipalities of Belterra, Santarém, Aveiro, Rúpolos, and Placas. The
literature review supported the selection of change drivers.

Considering the infrastructure, we selected roads, municipal offices, land tenure (settlements, Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands) and localities. Biophysical elements included climate variables such as rainfall and annual water deficit, altimetry and slope. All variables were crossed with land use data made available by the project TerraClass (INPE for 2008 and 2009) and was sought information on crop, livestock and plant extraction through production to subsidize economic data provided by the results of spatial analysis process. Data were spatialized by using the geostatistics analysis, modeling and scenario generation were operated in the DINAMICA software that provided a detailed analysis for each vector element of change in the landscape, in addition to its role in the spatial dynamics of the study area.

The results showed that amongst the variables used as
landscape transformation vectors, the roads appear to be
the main drivers of change in every scenario, which means
a change in the forest with different production systems.
Taking into account the total area analysed, sites from Rural
Settlement present more probability for transitions. The
remaining areas with most probability for transitions are
those with the lowest declivity values, who use agricultural
machinery on the yearly cultivation of soy and corn. The
remaining transitions follow the deforestation pattern,
known as fishbone, along the Transamazônica highway.
Inside the National Forest, the road that connects the São
Jorge Community to the Tapajós across the Forest, at the
Km 67 on Highway 163, is a major anthropic pressure.
The evidence to this fact is that in 2012 this community
was no longer under the control of ICMBio. In the map, the
yellow and red dots indicate the points with higher chance
of climate change in 2030. The order of the map are two
three zones of concern: the South side of FLONA, for
the settlements controlled by INCRA (National Institute of
Colonization and Agrarian Reform); the West side, where
the Santarem-Cuiaba road is being renewed. The South
side is a major concern for biological conservation given the
intense use of the soil by farmers from the Settlements.
The altitude, intense rainfall rates, the areas for settlements, and
the predicted scenario for the year 2030 are elements that
strengthen the need of Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forestry
Systems to relieve the pressure on the south side of
the Tapajós National Forest. Based on the results, we conclude
that the emacipation of the São Jorge Community entails a
further loss in the total area of FLONA for 18 years scenario,
therefore leading to a threat for this Conservation Unit. In
addition, it is recommended that the ICMBio should have a
more strict access control to the Tapajós River.

P-2214-17

On the need to integrate microclimates
and thermal limits when forecasting war-
ming tolerance of organisms

S. Pincebourde (1) ; J. Casas, (2)

(1) CNRS, Institut de Recherche sur la Biologie de l'Insecte (IRib), Tours, France; (2) Université François Rabelais, Institut de recherche sur la biologie de l'insecte (irib), Tours, France

The impact of warming on the persistence and distribution of ectotherms is often forecasted from their warming tolerance—inferred as the difference between their upper thermal limit and habitat temperature, which is usually taken as the macroclimate temperature. Ectotherms, however, are thermally-adapted to their microclimates, which can deviate from macroclimate conditions. Ignoring microclimates can therefore bias estimates of warming tolerance. We compared warming tolerance of a leaf miner insect across its ontogeny when calculated from macro- and microclimate temperatures. We used a heat balance model to predict experienced microclimate temperatures from macroclimate, and we measured thermal limits for several life stages (egg, larval stages 4 and 5, and pupae). The model shows a concomitant increase in microclimate temperatures and thermal limits across ontogeny despite they all experience the same macroclimate. Consequently, warming tolerance, as estimated from microclimate temperature, remained constant across ontogeny. When calculated from macroclimate temperature, however, warming tolerance was wrong by over 7–10°C depending on the life stage. Therefore, large errors are expected when predicting persistence and distribution shifts of ectotherms in changing climates using macroclimate rather than microclimate.

P-2214-18

Infering the effect of climate change on
dispersal-limited species in the Brazilian
Atlantic rainforest with collection data and
targeted field sampling

V. Tarli (1) ; P. Grandcolas (2) ; R. Pellens (2)

(1) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Institut de systématique, evolution, biodiversité, urm 7205 isyeb, Paris, France; (2) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Institut de systématique, evolution, biodiversité, urm 7205 isyeb, Paris, France

Infering the effect of global change is especially difficult in
ecological biodiversity hotspots. These places shelter a large
and poorly known part of the world's biodiversity, with
many species that cannot track environmental changes
due to their limited dispersal ability. Tropical hotspots are
also submitted to the fastest man-induced environmental
changes. Therefore, even strongly targeted field samplings
cannot be fast and comprehensive enough to provide
knowledge for taking management and conservation
decisions. Sampling needs to be completed by data
already obtained and accumulated for decades in Museum
collections. Better than being simply supplementary,
these data are often critically complementary, since they
represent the only available information for parts of natural
ecosystems that are already largely destroyed, allowing for
composing more real models of species requirements and
distributions. We carried out a study to understand the
effect of climate change on one of the most remarkable
hotspots of biodiversity, the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest,
fragmented into thousands of remnants, and extending on
more than 3000 km from Nordeste to Uruguay. Our
goal was to evaluate the ability of dispersal-limited and
poorly-known species to survive climate change and also
to assess how much collection data from Natural History
Museums complement a targeted field sampling. We
focused on one model organism, the saprophagous insect
genus Monastria Sausswe, 1864 (Dictyoptera, Blaberidae)
endemic of the whole rainforest hotspot, abundant but
still poorly known, dispersal-limited and unable to track
climate change.

We conducted a targeted field sampling by visiting 67 locations distributed all over the Atlantic rainforest in geographical and altitudinal extremes and including all forest physiognomies, and by also sampling "secondary" forests and areas with other land uses. This was complemented with specimens from collections from 13 Natural History Museums. We used the Species Distribution Model (SDM) MaxEnt to model present and future potential habitats based on sets of 19 Bioclim climate variables. For current climate, we used the data from 1950-2000 provided by Worldclim. The habitat modeled with collection data nicely overlaps in 89% that obtained with targeted field sampling. It covered almost the entire range of the 19 climate variables assessed with targeted samples, which shows how useful it can be to consider it.

In order to assess the amount of habitat available for
Monastria in future climate we used two climatic models
for 2050 and 2070, derived from climate surfaces IPCC
- HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 (http://www.worldclim.org,
IPCC 2007). For each model applied to pooled data sets,
we used two outputs (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), representing
roughly a pessimistic and optimistic greenhouse scenario
according to CO2 emissions. We already know from
previous studies that the Monastria with aptorous females
is unable to move between remnants of primary forest by
using inopportunistic matrix (grasslands, diverse plantations)
or "secondary" forests where it is never found. We then
searched the extent of forest remnants that are capable
to host Monastria now and in the projected future
climates. Our results point for a critical situation which
a maximum of 4% of the present distribution area will
fit Monastria's habitat requirements in the near future.
This calls attention to the need for considering the most
frequent case of dispersal-limited species in relation to
habitat connectivity when evaluating the potential effect
of climate
## Agent-Based Modeling of Reasonable Consumption for Grassland Ecosystem Supply Service in Inner Mongolia, China

H. Yan (1) ; P. L (2) ; L. Zhen (3)

(1) IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing, China; (2) IGSNRR, Beijing, China; (3) IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing, China

Sustainable ecosystem service is of vital importance to the survival and development of human society. How to balance the conflicts between the ecosystem protection and the ecological consumption of local residents has been a serious challenge today especially in ecologically vulnerable area. In order to find out reasonable consumption approaches of the grassland ecosystem supply service and explore the sustainable land management strategies for the local social-ecosystem, taking Hulun Buir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the case study region, based on the agents' behaviors rules derived from households survey, a Agent-Based Model (ABM) has been developed in this study for simulating the ecosystem consumption pressure

under different grassland management scenarios. This model links the supply and consumption of grassland ecosystem service by calculating ecosystem NPP supply and households NPP consumption. The model includes three sub-models: Individual growth status sub-model, Households' land-use decision sub-model, and Ecosystem service consumption pressure sub-model. In accordance with the multi-objective land management practices in case study area, four land management scenarios were modeled in this study, (1) business as usual, (2) aiming at increasing household's living level, (3) aiming at ecosystem protection and (4) aiming at balancing the ecosystem protection and living level improvement. The result indicate that reasonable ecosystem service consumption mode is possible in the research region, under which the indicators including ecosystem pressure, NPP supply, forage consumption of livestock, household incomes and herders' living level could reach a reasonable and sustainable level. This reasonable consumption mode is an improvement of traditional grazing mode, which could stimulate herders to control the livestock marketing rate by rational ecological compensation measurements, so as to ensure the NPP consumption is close to but never beyond the threshold.

# 2215 - Tropical degraded forests response to global change: current knowledge and cross-cutting research challenges for monitoring and processes understanding

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2215-01

#### Tropical Forest Degradation in the context of climate change: increasing role and research challenges

P. Sist (1) ; J. Chave (2) ; E. Rutishauser (3)

(1) Cirad, Montpellier, France; (2) CNRS, Laboratoire evolution et diversité biologique (edb), urm S174, Toulouse, France; (3) CarboFor-Expert, Geneva, Switzerland

While developed countries in temperate regions faced their forest transition about 100 years ago or more, "tropical forest rich" nations still largely depend on forest resources or land clearing for their development. Hence, tropical forests are retreating at an alarming rate from advancing cash crops, such as oil palm, soybean, or cattle ranching. Beside tropical deforestation, tropical forest degradation resulting mostly from human-induced causes (e.g. predatory or illegal logging, non-timber forest product extraction, fuel wood extraction) significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and loss of biodiversity. If deforestation is an obvious ecosystem change, forest degradation is more difficult to discern and quantify. Degraded forests have become a major component of today's tropical landscapes, representing up to 50 % of all tropical forests. For example, almost half of standing primary tropical forests, up to 400 million ha, are designated by national forest services for timber production. The portion of tropical forests managed for timber extraction, hereafter referred to as "managed forests", will therefore play key roles in the trade-off between provision of goods and maintenance of carbon stocks, biodiversity, and other services. However, so far, most of our understanding of tropical forest arises from studies carried out in old-growth undisturbed forests, or secondary forests (i.e. regrowth forests) while the ecology of degraded forests at the regional and continental scale remains poorly studied and their role to mitigate climate change still very poorly known. However, understanding the functions played by degraded forests in providing goods and environmental services in the context of climate change is crucial. We will first discuss the complex concept of forest degradation in the tropics and then define degraded forests. We will show their importance in providing timber while maintaining high levels of biodiversity and carbon stocks. We will further demonstrate that implementation of sustainable forest management can promote long term provision of ecosystem services. Finally, the potential of tropical degraded forests in mitigating climate change will be discussed along with future research challenges on this issue.

### K-2215-02

#### R&D efforts, coordination, and needs towards operational forest monitoring systems in the context of an increasing Earth observation data availability

B. Mora (1)

(1) GOFC-GOLD LC Project Office, Wageningen, Netherlands

Deforestation is the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, accounting for 15 % to 20 % of the total emissions. To meet the challenge of climate change in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been developing the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism. The UNFCCC recommends the use of remote sensing for forest monitoring in the frame of REDD+. Forest degradation can be monitored by remote sensing technologies using direct methods like forest gap detection, or indirect methods using logging roads as a proxy. International initiatives such as the Global Observation for Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) and the Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) foster sustainable availability of Earth observation data to support national forest monitoring and reporting activities compliant with the good practice guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). GOFC-GOLD and GFOI also provide guidance to countries to develop forest monitoring systems with the REDD Sourcebook and the Method and Guidance Document, respectively. These international initiatives foster also coordinated research and development (R&D) activities encouraging joint projects between research institutions, in collaboration with space agencies.

The launch of Landsat-8 in 2014 ensures the continuity of Landsat missions with an increased ability to collect data compared to 1980's (about 4 times more images). Joint to be an American effort, Europe will increase further Earth observations capabilities with the advent of the Sentinel satellite constellations. Sentinel 1A was launched in 2014 with a Synthetic Aperture Radar C-band sensor. The launch of the Sentinel-2A carrying a superspectral optical sensor is scheduled for June 2015. Sentinel-2A will allow a coverage of the land surface every 10 days. Once Sentinel-2B will be launched, the Sentinel-2 satellites combined with Landsat-8 will allow a revisit time period of 3-4 days. Other national and international satellite missions will also provide or provide already additional imagery, either in the radar and optical domain (e.g., CBERS-4, SPOT series,
Pleiades, ALOS-2). The increased amount of observations will facilitate the use of time series analysis methods for the monitoring of tropical forests. Such methods are still at the R&D stage however some studies have started to show their potential capabilities to detect deforestation, forest degradation, but also forest regrowth. Challenges still remain to make such methods operational such as data set accessibility, data source interoperability (optical and radar), increase of the robustness, use of recommended practices, and standards. Such R&D efforts can serve other international policy discussions and agreements beyond those from the UNFCCC. The monitoring of habitats and their fragmentation for instance are listed among the Biodiversity Aichi Targets proposed by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD).

This presentation will present some foreseeable forest monitoring methods including degradation to become operational in tropical regions within the next decade, in the context of an increasing availability of Earth Observation data. We will present also international efforts to coordinate research, promote robust forest monitoring methods and standards. Finally we will discuss the current knowledge gaps and R&D needs to be met to achieve the objectives of some international policy negotiations and agreements.

## K-2215-03

### Tropical forests, Earth Observation and REDD+: requirements, research and progress in supporting developing countries

#### FM. Seifert (1)

(1) European Space Agency, Earth observation programme, ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Italy

Tropical forests represent about 45 % of the world forests, are home to over 2/3 of terrestrial living species and play a major role in climate regulation. In 2005, official discussions initiated at the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a process to analyze how reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) in developing countries could contribute to the ultimate goal of the Convention. A basic underpinning requirement is the systematic long-term observation of forests and other land cover characteristics and changes on national and global levels. The European Copernicus programme will guarantee these long term observations by the Sentinel satellites for the next decades. In response to this need several international activities have been established like the REDD working group within the "Global Observation of Forests and Land Cover Dynamics" (GOF-COLD) and the Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI) of GEO. Both initiatives foster a continuous interaction mechanism with the UNFCCC to provide technical contributions to the negotiations and for national-level capacity development for monitoring emphasizing the important role of satellite remote sensing in this context.

The presentation will elaborate the state of play of REDD+ in the political context and discuss the approach and experiences of the Earth Observation and carbon monitoring community with the REDD political discussions. It addresses the research community with open scientific questions to improve methodologies to support REDD early actions and readiness mechanisms for building national REDD monitoring systems. Critical issues on monitoring forest degradation, accuracy assessments, biomass burning and the role of evolving technologies will be discussed.

## O-2215-01

### Assessment of forest degradation in the Amazon using multi-sensors techniques: the case of Paragominas (Brazil)

V. Gond (1) ; C. Bournigol (1) ; L. Blanc (1) ; N. Baghdadi (2) ; J. Oszwald (3) ; P. Sist (4)

(1) CIRAD, ES, Montpellier, France; (2) IRSTEA, Umr tetis, Montpellier, France; (3) Université Rennes-2, Umr letg, Rennes, France; (4) Cirad, Montpellier, France

The Amazonian pioneer front region is a mosaic of different forests types and agricultural landscapes resulting from the colonization of the region through forest conversion into pasture and agricultural lands.

Fernside and Guimaraes (1996) showed that 47 % of the deforested area is rapidly abandoned. It also appears that logged forests surface is equivalent to deforested areas (Asner et al., 2005).

Consequently a degradation gradient exists from low-impacted logged forests (depending of the logging intensity) to young secondary (regrowth) forests. To obtain more accurate estimation of carbon stocks, it is important today to take into account the degraded forest gradient including all degraded forest stages between mature intact forests and non-forest areas. The first main challenge is to identify and to characterize the various stages.

The identification of forest degradation is still a complex and expansive problem even if it has been focused until now only on logged tropical rainforest (Asner, 2009; Gond and Guiter, 2009; Desclees et al., 2006; Asner et al., 2005; Souza et al., 2003). In parallel estimation of biomass loss in the degraded forest is little-studied. Within temperate and boreal forests some estimation are made by Solberg et al., (2013). The combination of optical remotely sensed data (Landsat-8), radar (Terra-Sar-X) and Lidar (IceSat) have to be studied to analyze the potential of the multi-sensors techniques to characterize the tropical rainforest degradation (Betbeder et al., 2014).

The study presents the first results obtained during the field work at Paragominas (Pará, Brazil) on different forest degradation intensities (Bérénguer et al., 2014). This field database is then compared with multi-sensors remote sensing to better understand multiple interactions and to establish a forest degradation typology.

## O-2215-02

### The Challenges of Monitoring Forest Degradation: A Case Study from Central India

#### R. Defries (1) ; M. Agarwala, (2)

(1) Columbia University, Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, New York, NY, United States of America; (2) Columbia University, Ecology, evolution, and environmental biology, New York, United States of America

Forest degradation, as distinct from deforestation, results in loss of forest biomass within forested ecosystems. Implications for climate include reductions in carbon storage and the reduced ability of forests to provide hydrological services that buffer against climate change. Many factors contribute to anthropogenically-driven forest degradation, including local dependence on forest resources for fodder, fuelwood and other products as well as fire and commercial timber extraction. Monitoring forest degradation with remote sensing is more complex than monitoring deforestation and calls for the use of data from non-optical sensors. An example from central India, where local livelihoods are highly dependent on forests, illustrates the use of optical and radar data to monitor changes in forest biomass associated with human use. Loss of biomass is associated with human use surrounding villages. Reductions in degradation in this context depend on providing livelihood options that reduce dependence on forest resources. The utility of operational systems for monitoring progress towards that goal depends on the involvement of NGOs and other institutions working with local communities. Expanding degradation monitoring over large areas needs to account for the heterogeneity of forest types and varying pressures on forests in different settings.

## O-2215-03

### Development of EO based national forest cover monitoring systems in the Congo Basin

#### C. Sannier (1) ; LV. Fichet, (1)

(1) SIRS SAS, Villeneuve d'Ascq, France

Deforestation is currently known to account for up to 20 % of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, a significant decrease in deforestation can have a direct positive impact on reducing GHG emissions. Initiatives such as the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD), Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) or Zero Deforestation (ZD) aim to provide incentives to reduce deforestation. The Congo Basin represents the
second largest forest area in the world after the Amazon. Deforestation in Congo Basin countries is generally expected to be low. The assessment of forest cover and forest cover change area is essential for the initiatives mentioned above to determine what is referred to as activity data in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines on the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector.

Producing estimates of deforestation in tropical countries in relation to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often relies on the use of satellite remote sensing in the absence of National Forest Inventories (NFI). A probability sample combined with an appropriate response design can provide forest cover and forest cover change area estimates and their associated uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals at a set probability threshold as required in the IPCC 2006 guidelines and for reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, wall-to-wall mapping is often required by countries to provide an exhaustive assessment of their forest resources and as input to land use plans for management purposes, but implementing a wall-to-wall approach is expensive requiring specialized equipment and staff. The recent release of the Global Forest Change mapping products could provide an alternative for tropical countries wishing to develop their own wall-to-wall forest monitoring mapping products.

A model assisted regression (MAR) estimator was applied nationally in Gabon and for selected regions in Cameroon and CAR using the combination of both reference data obtained from a probability sample and nationally produced forest cover and forest cover change maps and produced from the Global Forest Change data. The resulting areas are potentially more accurate than the direct expansion estimate and provides an estimate of the precision of the estimate which is not available from the map statistics alone.

Results show that the method presented provides a reliable means of producing forest cover and forest cover change area statistics and confirm the low level of deforestation expected in Congo basin countries. It also confirms the high level of forest cover in Gabon with more than 88% of the country covered by forest covering an area of just over 23.5 million hectares. In Cameroon and CAR, forest represents about 72% of the area of the regions selected with a total of over 5 million hectares.

Forest cover estimates for national level maps lead to coefficients of variation less than 0.3% at national level in Gabon and between 1.4 and 1.8% at regional level in Cameroon and CAR thus reducing significantly the level of uncertainty for forest cover area estimates compared with reference data alone.

Deforestation rates are generally low, with less than 0.4% between 1990 and 2000 in Gabon. In CAR, the deforestation rate is about 1.5% between 1990 and 2000 and 0.8% between 2000 and 2010. However, the deforestation in Gabon is not statistically different from 0 between 2000 and 2010. The same is observed for the Centre region of Cameroon. This is because the changes detected are very small and as a result the coefficients of variations of change estimates are greater.

Overall, results based on the global forest change data are not as accurate and precise and substantial post-processing and calibration are required to obtain results of similar quality than that of the national maps. However, it is considered that the level of effort necessary would be considerably less than that for producing the national maps.

O-2215-04

## Will tropical forests face slow down with ongoing climate changes?

B. Hérault (1); M. Aubry-Kientz (2); V. Rossi (3); F. Wagner (4)

(1) Cirad, UMR EcoFoG, Kourou, French Guiana; (2) Université de Nantes, France; (3) Cirad, UMR b&sef, Yaoundé, Cameroon; (4) National Institute for Space Research, Remote sensing division, São José dos Campos, Brazil

In the context of climate changes, identifying and then predicting the impacts of climatic drivers on tropical forest dynamics is becoming a matter of urgency. We used

a coupled model of tropical tree growth and mortality, calibrated with forest dynamic data from the 20 year study site of Paracou, French Guiana, in order to introduce and test a set of climatic variables. Three major climatic drivers of the tropical forest dynamics were identified through the variable selection procedure: drought, water saturation and temperature. Drought decreased annual growth and mortality rates, high precipitation increased mortality rates and high temperature decreased growth. Interactions between key functional traits, stature and climatic variables were investigated, showing best resistance to drought for trees with high wood density and for trees with small current diameters. We then used SELVA, an individual-based model to run forest dynamic simulations for the next century using predictions from the IPCC 5AR with 3 different scenarios corresponding to 3 relative concentration pathways. Basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, growth and mortality rates exhibited changing values as long as the scenario became pessimistic. Temperature is the strongest driver highlighting a drop of 40% in average forest growth for the RCP8.5. Our results highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical forests will face during the next century.

## 2215-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2215-01

## Amazonia, a tropical forest in transition: from natural biogenic conditions to land use change, large scale biomass burning and urbanization

P. Artaxo (1); H. Barbosa, (2); JF. Brito, (1); S. Carbone, (1); E. Sena, (1); L. Rizzo, (2)

(1) University of São Paulo, Applied Physics Department, São Paulo, Brazil; (2) Federal University of São Paulo, UNIFESP, Department of earth and exact sciences, Diadema, Brazil

Amazonia is a large tropical forest in transition, with strong pressures for agriculture expansion, climate change, urbanization and others. Deforestation rate has decreased dramatically, from 27,700 km² in 2004 to 4,700 km² in 2013, being responsible for a strong reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on the order of 70%. Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

Feedbacks in Amazonia are very strong between ecosystem functioning, trace gases and aerosol emissions, cloud cover, precipitation, radiation balance and other key issues. In the wet season, a large portion of the Amazon region constitutes one of the most pristine continental areas, with very low concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosol particles. However, land use change modifies the biosphere-atmosphere interactions in such a way that key processes that maintain the functioning of Amazonia are substantially altered. This study presents long term aerosol and trace gases observations at a preserved forest site in Central Amazonia, with observations from 2008 to 2013. Amazonian aerosols were characterized in detail, including aerosol size distributions, aerosol light absorption and scattering, optical depth and aerosol inorganic and organic composition, among others properties. Trace gases analyzed includes volatile organic compounds (VOCs), O3, CO2, CH4, N2O and CO. The central Amazonia region showed very low aerosol concentrations (PM2.5 of 1.3±0.7 µgm-3 and 3.4±2.0 µgm-3 in the wet and dry seasons, respectively), with a median particle number concentration of a low 220 cm-3 in the wet season. Aerosol composition shows organic aerosol accounting to 81% to the PM1 aerosol loading. Aerosol light scattering and absorption coefficients were very low during the wet season, increasing by a factor of 5, approximately, in the dry season due to long range transport of biomass burning aerosols reaching the forest site in the dry season.
Remote sensing observations from six AERONET sites and from MODIS from 1999 to 2013, provides a regional and temporal overview of changes in Amazonian atmosphere. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm of less than 0.1 is characteristic of natural conditions over Amazonia. At the arc of deforestation region, AOD values greater than 4 are frequently observed in the dry season. Combined analysis of MODIS and CERES showed that the mean direct radiative forcing of aerosols at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) during the biomass burning season was a high $-5.6-1.7$ Wm$^{-2}$, averaged over whole Amazon Basin. For high AOD (larger than 1) the maximum daily direct aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA was as high as $-20$ Wm$^{-2}$ locally. This change in the radiation balance caused increases in the diffuse radiation flux, with an increase of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of $18-29\%$ for high values of AOD. Recently the GoAmazon project is analyzing the impacts of urbanization on atmospheric properties, and preliminary results shows important changes in ozone formation, secondary organic aerosol production and cloud properties.

From this analysis, it is clear that land use change in Amazonia shows alterations of many atmospheric properties, and these changes are affecting the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem in significant ways. The potential impacts on global carbon cycle and on the hydrological cycle are large.

Funded by Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas – INCT Global Change – CNPq/FAFESP, and FAFESP project 2013/05014-0

## P-2215-02

### Climatic implications of rainforest transformations in Nigeria: quantitative and qualitative approaches

**S. Ayanlade (1)**

(1) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ille-Ife, Nigeria, Dept. of Geography, – Ille-Ife, Osun, France

This study examines forest transformation in the rainforest of Nigeria, focusing on the drivers of forest change, the climatic and societal implications on the local people. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. Remote sensing was used to perform quantitative analysis while social methods were used as qualitative approached to evaluate the spatial and temporal rate of deforestation. A time series of Landsat data was used over the period from 1984 to 2011. Remote sensing change detection methods were used to assess forest transformation in rainforest reserves in the study area. Two forest reserves, Okumu and Sakponba/Urhonigbe, were examined to have detail case studies of intensified deforestation within forest reserves. The implications of these changes on local climate around the forest reserves were assessed. Social survey data, questionnaires and interviews, were used to assess societal implications of forest transformation on local people in the study area. Ancillary data such as population data, road network data, and climate data were used to assess the drivers of forest transformation and their implications. Correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationship between deforestation and population, road network, and surface temperature (ST) around the forest reserves. The results show that Okumu forest reserve nearly 50% of its area cover while Sakponba/Urhonigbe forest reserves loss about 90%. There are good relationship between deforestation and distance from road ($R^2$ = 0.52), also between population and deforestation with a correlation ($R^2$ = 0.48). There appears to be a significant relationship between change forest cover and surface temperature with $R^2$ = 0.46. Thus, the major finding of this study is that a major cause of deforestation in the rainforest is a result of increased accessibility created by road network. Forest reserve with high rate of road accessibility has high rate of deforestation compared to the forest reserve with less road network. The results from this study also show that increased population appears to be driving people to access these forest areas, that the relationship between population and deforestation relatively significant. The major implication of deforestation on local climate is that ST tends to increase as the rate of deforestation increases. Area with high forest cover tends to experience low ST while area with high rate of deforestation appears to have high ST. The results from social survey show that the driver of deforestation is transformation in the west Nigeria are multifaceted. Such drivers include the influence of

human activities such as commercial and commercial logging, which are enhanced by high and rapidly increasing population, and accessibility to forest reserves through road transportation network. Corruption, lack of political will and unenforced environmental laws are other major drivers, though these are not easily understood in the study area because of lack of accurate data about them. This study is important to both governments and local people to see the need for better forest conservation.

## P-2215-03

### Predicting the combined impacts of climate change and selective logging in timber production forests of Central Africa

F. Claey's (1); F. Montier (1); D.Y. Ouédraogo (2); L. Francois (3); S. Courget-Fleury (1); B. Hérault (4); R. Gaspard (4); A. Fayolle (2); N. Picard (5)

(1) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical Forest Goods and Ecosystem Services (BSEF), Montpellier, France; (2) University of Liège, Biosystems engineering (biose), Gembloix, Belgium; (3) University of Liège, Unit for modelling of climate and biogeochemical cycles (umccb), Liège, Belgium; (4) Guyanese Forest Ecology (ECOFOG), Kourou, France; (5) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical forest goods and ecosystem services (bsef), Yaounde, Cameroon

In the design and the implementation of current rules of Sustainable Forest Management (SFM), still too little account is taken of the sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change. In the Congo Basin, forests cover 220 million hectares and represent an economic sector of utmost importance in rural development as well as national and regional climate strategies. Hence, these forests constitute a major challenge for both adaptation and mitigation.

A prerequisite to ensure the relevance and the effectiveness of SFM recommendations in this region is to elucidate the influence on forest dynamics of both climate change and harvesting pressure. This influence will likely consist of major shifts in structure and floristic composition. By opening the stands and increasing light availability, selective logging fosters the development of light demanding species. Some of these species, particularly the pioneers, are thought to be particularly drought sensitive so that global warming could strongly impact logged forests. The study of forest-climate-logging relationships needs therefore species-level predictions. However, the high diversity of tropical forests, in pair with the scarcity of data, hinders the correct fitting of species-specific

To investigate the combined effects of climate and harvesting influence on Central African forests, we conducted long-term simulations of forest dynamics under several scenarios of climate change and timber harvesting. Climate scenarios were based on outputs from simulations of the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climate of the French National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM), performed within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and under several Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We also used outputs fields such as soil water and potential evapotranspiration from the model CARbon Assimilation in the Biosphere (CARB) of University of Liège obtained under the same climatic scenarios. Logging scenarios were impacted by considering a wide range of felling intensities.

To carry out this work, we developed an innovative method based on a Mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models (MIMM) that permits to test and simulate the influence of timber harvesting and climate change on forest dynamics. While insuring a satisfactory fitting of vital parameters such a methodology allowed us to reflect the diversity of tree ecological patterns, notably in response to climate variables. To do this, we simultaneously clustered species into groups according to species-specific ecological responses and identified group-specific explicative environmental and climate variables. To infer and validate model outputs, we used the M'baiki site, in the Central African Republic (CAR), a unique experimental site that has been monitored for 30 years through a collaborative partnership between the University of Paris French and CAR institutional and research organizations.
Our methodology is a novel tool to accurately predict long-term ecological consequences in Congo Basin forest under both constraints of climate change and selective logging. One of the main immediate applications would be to check if classical SFM strategies, such as Reduced Impact Logging (RIL), Improved Forest Management (IFM) or post-logging silviculture, are still valid when the ecological complex and the climate sensitivity of tropical forests are duly taken into account. As an envisaged development, a coupling wife, in a mining company model could allow to predict climate change impact on the economics of forest-based sectors, including tax revenues and socio-economic local benefits. More generally, our work could contribute to the improvement of climate-smart policies for Central African forests, a critical issue in the current context of deployment of the mechanism of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+).

P-2215-04

## The AmazonFACE research program: assessing the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the ecology and resilience of the Amazon forest

D. Lapolla (1); CAN. Quesada (2); RJ. Norby, (3); AC. Araújo (4); T. Domingues (5); I. Hartley (6); B. Kruuij (7); K. Lewin (8); P. Meir (9); A. Rammig (10); A. Walker (11); J. Ometto (12)

Universidade Estadual Paulista, Rio Claro, Brazil; (2) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil; (3) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental sciences division and climate change sciences institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America; (4) Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Belem, Brazil; (5) Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, Brazil; (6) University of Exeter, Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom; (7) Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands; (8) Brookhaven National Laboratory, Long Island, United States of America; (9) University of Edinburgh, School of geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (10) Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam, Germany; (11) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States of America; (12) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Despite being suggested, for nearly 20 years now, as a process of utter importance for the resilience of the Amazon forest and maintenance of the global carbon cycle, the existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed "CO2 fertilization" effect in tropical forests remains largely undetermined. Reducing this uncertainty is critical to the future of the Amazon region as well as for global assessments of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. In this presentation we will introduce the AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) research program, an experiment of unprecedented scope and importance in a primary, old-growth forest of the Amazon basin near Manaus, Brazil - the first of this kind in a tropical forest. The experiment will simulate an atmospheric CO2 composition of the future in order to help answer the question: How will rising atmospheric CO2 affect the resilience of the Amazon forest, the biodiversity it harbors, and the ecosystem services it provides in light of projected climatic changes? Amazon-FACE is divided in three phases: (i) pre-experimental ecological characterization of the research site (Jun.2014-Nov.2015); (ii) pilot experiment comprised of two 30-m diameter plots, being one maintained with atmospheric [CO2] at +200ppm and the other with ambient CO2 concentration (Dec.2015-Nov.2017); (iii) fully-replicated long-term experiment comprised of four pairs of FACE plots maintained at ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations for 10 years (Dec.2017-Nov.2027). The forest inside these plots will be scientifically scrutinized from the top-most canopy leaves to the deepest roots in terms of carbon metabolism and cycling, water use, nutrient cycling, forest community composition, and interactions with environmental stressors. A multi-disciplinary team of scientists namely from Brazil, USA and Europe will employ state-of-the-art tools from deep in the soil to above the forest canopy. The resulting data sets will be valuable resources for a broad community of scientists, especially for ecosystem and climate modelers.

P-2215-05

## Evidence of Ecological Resilience Clusters to climate typology in the Amazon Rainforest: a methodological proposal

L. Martorano (1); L. Lisboa, (2); R. Muniz, (2); E. Sotta, (3); N.S. Beltrão (4)

(1) s/nº, Agrometeorology/modelling, Belem, Brazil; (2)

ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil; (3) Embrapa, Amapá, Brazil; (4)

UEPA, Belém, Brazil

Resilience is usually defined as the capacity of an ecosystem to absorb disturbance without shifting to an alternative state and losing function and services. This concept encompasses three distinct processes: resistance, the magnitude of disturbance and the speed of return to the original structure, which are fundamentally different but rarely distinguished. Successfully increasing the resilience of natural systems may therefore have important implications for human welfare in global climate change. Forest areas contribute in maintaining the moisture due to evapotranspiration exchanges. Severe droughts and periods with diverse anthropogenic pressures are threatening the ecological resilience in the Amazon region. This research intended to identify the areas with a differentiated resilience capacity in the Brazilian Amazon. Some climate data were used in this study, such as: annual rainfall, total rainfall during the less rainy trimester, total rainfall below 100 and 60 mm, minimum air temperature and pour pressure deficit. We used biophysical data (NDVI, GPP, FPAR and LAI) to assess the temporal response of vegetation in order to express the effects of seasonal conditions and variations in weather and climate conditions. The biophysical data were obtained from the MODIS satellite, and the altitude data was provided by TOPDATA. The data integration was performed based in the correlation analysis for detecting redundancies between variables. Since the original data were highly correlated, we used the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify which variables should be incorporated in the assessments of areas with ecological resilience. The year of 2005 was used due to the strong El Niño as well as the high deforestation records of the year 2004. The year of 2013 was our reference as average climate conditions. The first component to generate the maps was able to clarify 40.5% (2005) and 41.7% (2013). We have considered climate typology and resilience in the evaluation of Amazon as reference in the evaluation of these ecological thresholds by integrating the variables in ArcGIS. We were able to identify 8 zones with ecological features of transitional, which indicates the distinctions in their climate resilience. Analysing the years 2005 and 2013, it is clear that different climate typologies were rebuilt after the 2005 severe drought. The positive values in 2013 indicate that same classes have been recovered in eight years showing a different resilience capacity. We have also observed a different resilience capacity combined with typological climate conditions allow us to differentiate the diversity in resilience ecological capacity of the Amazon.

P-2215-06

## Potential of tropical rainforest micro-fugia to sustain tropical biodiversity in Northeast Brazil

V. Montade (1); MP. Ledru (2); L. Bremond (3); C. Favier (4) 
CF. Verola (5); IR. Da Costa (5); IJS. Diogo (6); J. Burte (7) 
F.H. Magalhães E Silva (8); ESPR. Martins (9)

(1) Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, UMR 5554 ISEM, Montpellier, France; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR 226 ISEM, Montpellier, France;

(3) Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, UMR 5545 isem, Montpellier, France; (4) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5545 isem, Montpellier, France; (5) Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; (6)

Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, Brazil; (7) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche
Although the Northeast Brazil is mainly characterized by a semi-arid climate that corresponds to the driest area of Brazil, a sub-humid climate persists in small mountainous areas close to the coast. In the context of climatic conditions the development of a highly diversified Neotropical rainforest that represents rainforest microrefugia surrounded by a xeric shrubland and thorn forest. Because these microrefugia are characterized by small areas with specific vegetation and micromodificative conditions, their potentials to sustain tropical biodiversity are generally underestimated within the future scenarios of climate change. In order to characterize the different communities and distributions of these rainforests we analyzed the present-day pollen rain in soil samples along an altitudinal gradient for several microrefugia from Northeast Brazil. We identified several ecological successions characterized by significant changes in rainforest assemblages whose distribution depends on water availability linked to several factors (e.g. elevation, slope, distance from the coast). To test their potential to sustain future tropical biodiversity we compared our calibration of pollen rain with fossil pollen data in one of these microrefugia. Despite the high sensitivity of rainforest to climatic variability evidenced by our study, the rainforest persisted and responded to past climate changes by recruiting key species among its highly diverse stock. Our results suggest that the high plant diversity of the microrefugium could play an important role in allowing the development of specific assemblages in response to different climatic conditions. Consequently, we demonstrate that the identification and conservation of such microhabitats in the future climate change represent a crucial interest in policing the tropical biodiversity.

P-2215-07

Congo Basin forests under pressure: the
role of increasing population and strong
international palm oil demand

A. Mosnior, (1); J. Pirker (1); G. Bocqueho, (1); R. Mant (2), B. Bodin, (2); D. Bozeko, (3); A. Makoudjou, (3); R. Ndinga, (3); P. Tonga, (3); P. Havlik (1); M. Obersteiner (1)

(1) IIAIS, Ecosystems services and management, Laxenau, Austria; (2) UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) COMIFAC, Yaoundé, Cameroon

The Congo Basin forest is the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon rainforest but contrary to the latter, it has been relatively preserved up to now. Under pressure on the Congo Basin forest is increasing with high population growth, large economic development needs and new opportunities from global markets, increasing the chances of future emissions from deforestation. Understanding the main drivers of deforestation and their evolution in the next decades can support the development of policies compatible with development objectives and the REDD+ initiative, which many countries of the region have joined. One of the main drivers of the population continues to depend on subsistence agriculture and informal natural resources exploitation for their livelihoods and the viability of such practices in the context of higher population density is questioned. On the other hand, large-scale forest and agricultural concessions driven by foreign investments and supported by the States are also flourishing in the region to take opportunity of growing international demand. Global palm oil production has more than doubled over the last decade and ambitious palm oil production targets are now included in the development strategy of the Congo basin countries.

We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM to explore projections of future land use in the Congo Basin, including the role of shifting agriculture and plantation expansion. CongoBIOM is a model which represents land-based activities and land use changes. Results are presented for the whole Congo Basin and in more details

for three countries -Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo- to illustrate the variety of challenges the region will face to protect its forests and ensure economic development. We compute emissions from future land use change and test their sensitivity to several model parameters including future population and economic growth, and land carbon content from different sources (IPCC, FAO-FRA, NASA and WRC).

From our results, deforestation over the next decades increases strongly in the Congo Basin: the average annual deforested area is 60% higher over 2010-2020 and 123% higher over 2020-2030 compared to the historical rate 2000-2010. The region doubles its palm oil production over 2000-2030 and also more than double exports but a high share of the total production is used to satisfy rapidly increasing domestic needs. More generally, we observe that future agricultural expansion in the Congo Basin is mainly driven by internal demand. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon will experience the highest pressures from the agricultural sector while in the Republic of Congo pressures on the forests will mainly come from timber exploitation. Since uncertainties in the carbon content of the forest land are quite important in the region, they lead to significant variations of emissions from deforestation in our computation. The Congo Basin countries represent an important challenge for the REDD+ framework as i) historical deforestation rate is not very informative to set-up Congo Basin countries' reference levels for future emissions from deforestation and ii) REDD+ policies will need to reach scattered and remote subsistence farmers to allow them satisfying their needs without destroying the forest.

P-2215-08

Estimating and Forecasting Carbon Stocks
in Indian Tropical Forests using the LiDAR
Technology

F. Munoz (1) ; M. Réjou-Méchain (1) ; N. Ayyappan (1) ; C. Végla (1) ; J. Morel (1) ; P. Grard (1)

(1) French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India

Tropical forests play a major role in the cycle of terrestrial carbon, being at the same time both sinks and sources of atmospheric CO2. It is estimated that around 40% of forest carbon is contained in the above-ground biomass of trees, the stock of which, at the global scale, varies mainly through reforestation and deforestation. Monitoring the stocks of forest biomass is therefore a major issue for the reduction of uncertainties associated with the overall assessment of carbon. International political institutions are therefore increasingly demanding for an effective reduction of the uncertainty associated with the estimation of these stocks. The conferences of the United Nations on climate changes, the next one of which will be held in Paris in 2015 (COP21), have as a main objective to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming. Each country is invited, on a voluntary basis, to quantify the stocks and flows of forest carbon in their territory. In south and south-east Asia, huge progress has been made in this area in the past decade, with good level research and technical competencies. However, the quality of works remains variable, and the efforts are made at the national scale with very little exchanges of knowledge and know-how between institutions of different countries. This isolation considerably limits the emergence of international standards in the monitoring of stocks of forest carbon. Developing new methods for monitoring forest carbon, widening ongoing works and stimulating exchanges of knowledge and know-how with regard to the monitoring of forest carbon stocks in south Asia, are some of the main objectives of the French Institute of Pondicherry (FIP) in South India. The emergence of methodologies that capitalize on the products of remote sensing is a major advance in the mapping of forest biomass at a large spatial scale. The mapping of forest carbon via remote sensing tools is therefore rightly foreseen as a cornerstone of the MRV systems (Measuring, Reporting and Verification) of the UN REDD+ (United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) programme. Yet, the quality of products generated by remote sensing tools depends to a very great extent on the quality of field and remote sensing data that are used. This explains in part the strong inconsistencies that exist between the different forest carbon maps published recently at the world or pantropical scale. For example, in south and south-east Asia, these
inconsistencies are the same order of magnitude as the values indicated in the maps. During the past few years, the FIP has invested a great deal in the processing of remote sensing data, and in particular of the data generated by the very promising LiDAR technology (airborne or terrestrial laser). These new technologies allow unprecedented measures of forest structures with a centimetre-level resolution through entire landscapes. Furthermore, the FIP has monitored forest dynamics in studies plots at Uppangala, in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, for more than 20 years. Coupling detailed information on forest dynamics with airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data opens promising perspectives to understand and forecast with high precision the ability of tropical forests to stock carbon.

P-2215-09

GHG emissions and mitigation – a model approach for the Brazilian Amazon

J. Ometto (1); AP. Aguiar, (1); LA. Martinelli, (2); M. Bustamante (3); T. Assis, (1); ED. Nora, (1); FS. Pacheco, (1)

(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) University of Sao Paulo, Center for nuclear energy agriculture, Piracicaba, Brazil; (3) Universidade de Brasilia, Departamento de ecologia, Brasilia, Brazil

According to the recent scientific literature on the field, about 70% of the terrestrial sink of CO2 derived from anthropogenic activities resides in tropical forests. Of the tropical belt, the South America Amazon encompasses the largest continuous broadleaf forest in the globe. Estimates accounts more than 50% of the tropical carbon sink to these forests. Tropical deforestation accounts from about 1/10th to 1/5th of the global anthropogenic emissions of carbon and carbon equivalent green house gases. Big uncertainties associated to these estimates rely on the quantification of above and below ground living biomass in tropical forests and its spatial distribution. Adding up to the uncertainty on carbon emission estimates, the deforestation is not a linear process, but a patchy activity in the landscape, characterized by dynamic processes in both spatial and temporal dimension. Thereby, studies on carbon sources, sinks and stocks are urgent observational needs for both remote and ground observation in the tropics.

This paper will present recent studies coupling observation, remote and modeling approaches to better estimate green house gases emissions from tropical deforestation, with special focus on the Amazon forest. The result present outcomes of the INPE-EM model, developed at the National Institute for Space Research, in Brazil. This is a spatially explicit modeling framework that incorporates the deforestation dynamics, the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region. As well, we will explore mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions within a sustainable development framework, in special associated to nutrient use and emissions of nitrous oxide.

P-2215-10

Contribution of the analysis of diurnal cycles for understanding the mean seasonal cycle of rainforest photosynthetic activity in Central Africa

N. Philippon (1); B. De Lapparent (1) ; V. Gond (2) ; S. Bigot (1); T. Brou, (4) ; P. Camberlin, (1) ; G. Cornu, (2) ; V. Dureuil, (5) ; N. Martiny, (1) ; B. Morel, (6) ; V. Moron (7) ; G. Séze, (8)

(1) Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Biogéosciences UMR6282 CNRS / UV, Dijon, France; (2) CIRAD, ES, Montpellier, France; (3) Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; (4) UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, U2M, UAG, UR), Saint Denis, France; (5) LETG-KENNES-COSTEL, UMR 6554 CNRS / Université de Rennes 2, Rennes, France; (6) LE2P, EA 4079, Université de La Réunion, Saint Denis, France; (7) Aix-en-Provence, Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France. Geography, Aix-en-Provence, France; (8) LMD, UMR8539 CNRS / Université Paris 6, Paris, France

Global carbon, water and energy cycles are substantially driven by vegetation phenology. In particular tropical rainforests have been shown to be a key component of the climate system as they act as major water vapor sources

and carbon dioxide sink. For these reasons their evolution in response to both human pressure and climate change is critical. As compared to the Amazonian and Asian rainforests, the rainforest of Central Africa experiences slower deforestation rates, so that its main threat for the next decades might come from climate change. So far, the response and sensitivity of the Central Africa rainforest to the mean seasonal evolution and inter-annual variability of climate has attracted little interest. Indeed, most of the studies focus on its Amazonian counterpart and suggest that solar irradiation is the main driver of the annual and inter-annual variations of rainforest photosynthetic activity, and the Central Africa climate itself is not well documented.

As a first step towards a better understanding of the Central Africa rainforest sensitivity to present-day climate variability and response to climate change, this study performs for a target region located between 0–5°N/12–19°E (thus documenting forest areas from 5 countries) and using space borne observations, a detailed analysis of the rainforest photosynthetic activity mean seasonal cycle comparing it with those of climate variables considered as potential drivers, i.e. rainfall, cloudiness and solar irradiation.

Several key points emerge from our study. First, the seasonal cycles of photosynthetic activity (EVI MODIS) and rainfall over our target region are both bimodal. However, the highest peak of EVI (March–May) coincides with the driest of the two rainy seasons while the lowest peak of EVI (September–October) coincides with the wettest of the two rainy seasons. Second, the two rainy seasons are not associated with two distinct lows in total solar irradiation and two distinct peaks in total cloudiness: the first rainy season (March–May) which is less rainy as compared to the second one (September–October), is also less cloud and receives more total solar irradiation. This might explain the higher EVI values recorded. Third, the high total cloudiness recorded throughout the seasonal cycle actually hides marked seasonal variations in the frequency of the 5 main types of clouds analyzed. These cloud types have specific diurnal cycles which control those of solar irradiation (thus the daily light and energy available for photosynthesis), but also influence the remote sensed photosynthetic activity data (or index).

Our results clearly show that (1) nor the two dry seasons, nor the two rainy seasons do compare in terms of mean rainfall, cloudiness, solar irradiation and temperature, and (2) water and light availability have a respective weight in the Central Africa rainforest photosynthetic activity which evolve throughout the seasonal cycle. They also suggest that any evolution, due to climate change, of the complex diurnal cycles of rainfall, nebulosity and solar irradiation which characterize the equatorial climate regimes might perturb the rainforest phenology and enhance these ecosystems vulnerability.

P-2215-11

Bhabar Terai Forest Cover Reduction Causes Climate Change in the North Bank of the Brahmaputra Valley increased Severity in Flood

BP. Saikia (1)

(1) Gauhati University, Centre for animal ecology and wildlife biology, department of zoology, Guwahati, India

During the last few decades floods in the Brahmaputra basin had been extremely of large magnitude and high frequency and there were heavy floods in Assam almost every alternate year. The large scale floods of the Himalayan Mountain range are prone to major landslides that are getting aggravated due to wide ranging deforestation, mining in the catchment, rampant construction of embankments and roads and cutting in the Brahmaputra basin.

We have examined the decadal change in the forest cover of the Brahmaputra basin from 1970s to 2010 and compared with the in the level of flood severity, frequency and increasing level of the rising temperatures from the existing data sources and field survey on the North Bank of the river Brahmaputra.

During the period of this study has been found that the decreasing forest cover has major role in the rising temperature and flood. On the entire North Bank of the
Forest is a tool mentioned for ecological balance and environmental set up. It performs social, ecological and economical functions to the living organisms as it preserves the natural resources for the sustainable use, lesser soil erosion, preserves the animal habitat etc. Forest degradation in the tropics is of significant concern because of the substantial losses of biomass and habitat fragmentation. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been proven in many studies and experiences to aid in the decision-making process based on Multi-Criteria techniques. The advancement in remote sensing coupled to Geographic information system expedites the adverse changes in forest vegetation and the assessment of impact of various factors such as climatic change or human activities on forests. This study aims to evaluate an assessment of tree species diversity of the Sariska Tiger Reserve using GIS and Multi criteria techniques. Vegetation indices among other methods have been reliable in monitoring vegetation change. One of the most widely used indices for vegetation monitoring is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index because vegetation differential absorbs visible incident solar radiant and reflected much of the infrared. Data on vegetation biophysical characteristics can be derived from visible and NIR and mid-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Four forest types, namely Anogeissus pendula, Boswellia serrata, mixed Anogeissus butea and mixed Acacia zizyphus are mainly dominant in the forest cover of Alwar district. Satellite data of LISS III (2012) give precise information of vegetation through reflectance value.

River Brahmaputra on the foothills of Himalaya there have specialized zone of Bhabar-Terai forest. This has been seen that where these Bhabar-Terai zone has been removed from the foothill the severity of the flooding has been increased with the decadal rise of temperature in such areas. The rate of rainfall has been found increasing in the last four decades but the number of the rainy days has been decreasing.

After the 1950 earthquake and following flood in the year 1954 the entire basin of the Brahmaputra river changed. With the many fold increase of human population in the Brahmaputra valley the conversion of the forest land into agricultural lands started in a faster rate and continued till the 1996 Supreme Court ban on the timber logging and any such activity. Along with this forest destruction the flood occurrence in the Brahmaputra basin has been observed from the year '54, '62, '66, '72, '74, '77, '84, '86, '87, '88, '89, '90, '91, '92, '93, '94, '95, '96, '97, '98, '99, '2000, 2011, 2012 and 2013 and is still continuing. It has been revealed from the present study that the magnitude increased with time and frequency of flood increased which direct positive correlation with the decadal rise in temperature and negative correlation with the decadal rise in forest cover change in the North Bank of the river Brahmaputra in Assam specially the Bhabar and Terai forest which acts as the cushion for the speeding rainwater on the foothills zone of the Himalaya in the basin. It has been evident from the present study that forest cover in the foothills zone are very much necessary for resisting the impact of climate change such as increasing temperature, rainfall and flood. Hence, the forest cover has been necessarily found related with the severity of flood thus helps in curbing climate change impact.

# 2216 - Climate smart forestry- Integrating mitigation and adaptation into sustainable development

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2216-01

#### Forest carbon conservation and management: integration with sustainable forest management for multiple resource values and ecosystem services

JL Peyron (1) ; A. Sample (2)

(1) ECOFOR, PARIS, France; (2) Pinchot Institute for conservation, Washington, United States of America

Forest carbon management is an important consideration in temperate forests as well as tropical forests. It is estimated that US forests absorb up to 15 percent of total US carbon emissions, or more than 200 Tg yr⁻¹. Recent research suggests that this net carbon sink is declining, and that US forests could become a net carbon source within the next few decades unless decisive action is taken in the near term to alter this trajectory. Annual per capita carbon emissions in the US are triple those of France, and more than eight times those of Brazil or Indonesia, so many in the US forestry community consider it a moral responsibility to avoid this possible future. This paper will summarize ongoing research to determine whether carbon management is compatible with forest resource sustainability (continued production for a variety of goods and services), and whether forest carbon management enhances or detracts from other ecosystem services such as water and biodiversity. Examples are drawn from private forest lands managed primarily for timber and other economic values, and from public forest lands in which management for specific forest uses, values, and services are mandated by law or policy.

### K-2216-02

#### Title not communicated

P. Freer-Smith (1)

(1) Forest research, UK

Abstract not communicated

### O-2216-01

#### Understanding and directing small-scale private forest owner behaviour towards climate change adaptation

U. Pröbstl-Haider (1) ; R. Jandl (2) ; H. Formayer, (1) ; M. Suda, (3) ; W. Haider (4) ; N. Mostegl (1)

(1) University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria; (2) Forest Research Center, Bfwi, Vienna, Austria; (3) Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany; (4) Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada

Climate change will affect many productive forests across Austria, which may lead to significant economic loss, but also depicts various opportunities for future management. While the Federal Forest Service already takes climate change into account, little is known about adaptation of small-scale private forest owners, who manage 56% of Austria's forests. Consequently, this project will investigate human dimensions of climate change and small-scale forest owners' adaptation strategies. The main focus lies on their climate change perception, ways to influence their implementation of adaptation methods, the rising of their awareness of possible risks of inactivity, and the enhancement of their transition to resilient forests. The key challenge is to "re-interest" this group in their property and to increase the awareness of their required contribution. For this purpose, the project develops innovative concepts for attracting as many forest owners
as possible to implement adaptive measures. The core of the study builds a questionnaire combined with a discrete choice experiment, which aims at acquiring a thorough understanding of the salient factors influencing decision-making processes. This innovative methodologically approach initially combines forest growth modeling and visualization of potential effects within a stated preference method.

## O-2216-02

# How forests can support adaptation of landscapes systems to mitigate climate change? A landscape approach to sustainable forest management

S. Luque (1)

(1) IRSTEA - National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture, Mountain ecosystems, Grenoble, France

The world's forests are in a state of flux due to land-use and climate change, deforestation, afforestation, wildfires, insects and pathogen outbreaks. In the face of both anthropogenic and natural forces there is an increasing need to assess the value of our forests. The incorporation of the ecosystem service (ES) concept into the framework of forest management stems from a need to create a more holistic perception of forests, recognizing not only their economic value, but also their cultural and ecological values including their regulation capability. Thus, requirements of an optimized forest production and an environmental quality improvement represent a true challenge for the years to come. A fast reorganization of the system is needed in order to find the right balance between management within a forest ecosystem services approach at different scales. In particular, we need to consider a valorisation of wood resources and production, thorough knowledge of their vulnerability within an intensification management scenario.

As climate changes, societal demands for goods and services from forests are also changing. The recent decision of European government leaders to increase the share of renewable energy in Europe to 20% by 2020 is expected to result in a much greater demand for forest biomass for bio-energy generation. This higher demand will intensify the competition for resources between forest industry, the energy sector, and nature conservation, other protective functions and services (including biodiversity, protection from natural hazards, landscape aesthetics, recreation and tourism and climate regulation). A comprehensive and integrative approach from the plot level to the landscape level is needed through collaborative tools. Such tools also should inform on what level of spatial scale adaptation measures can be effective: can they just do it by managing the land within their jurisdiction, or are they dependent on changes at broader scales and do they need to collaborate with other land managers around? Scenario analysis and planning options for the future will be also presented based on specific case studies as exemplars. The work opens questions regarding the needs for a comprehensive adaptive forest management under changing environmental conditions to improve forest management in a wide range of territories.

The challenge that lays ahead demands gaining awareness of the increasing pressures on forests and forest resources and concern about the continuous changes in climate conditions that will increase forest degradation for what a holistic approach towards integrative solutions is needed.

## O-2216-03

# The loop effect: quantifying the mitigation potential of the forest sector when adaptation strategies are also taken into account. A case study for France

A. Barkaoui (1); J.D. Bontemps (2); S. Caurla (1); P. Delacote (3); L. Antonello (4); P. Mérian (5)

(1) INRA, Laboratoire d'économie forestière, Nancy, France; (2) AgroParisTech, Lerfob, Nancy, France; (3) INRA, Economics, Nancy, France; (4) AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d'économie forestière, Nancy, France; (5) National Institute of Geographic and Forestry Information, Nancy, France

Objectives: (1) quantify the contribution of the French

forest-wood product chain in terms of sequestration and substitution of carbon when we account for forest response to climate change and consequent forest managers adaptations; (2) assess the effects of the incertitude of current climate scenarios on the above carbon balance; (3) assess the potential consequences of an early introduction of adaptation measures.

Methodology: We use a spatially-explicit bio-economic Model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM+); that is able to consider and integrate: (a) effects of climate change over forest dynamic; (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability (conditionally to cc); (c) market effects in terms of supply, consumption and trade of wood products depending on the stock of forest resources. Having both forest dynamic and forest products included, we can evaluate the carbon balance considering the following elements: (a) carbon sequestered in live and death Biomass in the forest; (b) carbon sequestered in wood products; (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels; (d) carbon released by forest operations.

Results: When we run the model for the next century using IPCC A1B scenarios the average sequestration rate is 43.88 Mt CO2-eq., y-1 while the net energy substitution emissions from REDD+ are 13.13 Mt CO2-eq. Together they represent 16% of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO2). The sequestered carbon is highly due to an increasing forest stock, that however tends to peak in about 100 years. In A2 and B1 scenarios the forest balance decreases by 0.51% and 1.20% respectively. Testing 12 different climatic models for the A1B scenario we obtain a coefficient of variation of 2.47% for the overall carbon balance. Allowing forest managers to have a perfect foresight on future climate favour broadleaved species but has a limited effect on the carbon balance.

## 2216-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2216-01

# Community based Climate Change Adaptation: a Case of Community forestry programme in Nepal

NK. Bk (1)

(1) Kathmandu University, Department of Development Studies, Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal

Community forestry programme is a major community based climate change adaptation (BCCA) and potential mitigation strategy; recognized by climate change policy and National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Nepal. In these regards, some community forestry user groups (CFUGs), in the support of donor organizations, are implementing practices of community based adaption plan, establishing fund as well as creating institutions to benefit from REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) mechanism. However, there are very little evidences about the strength and limitations of such practices and its impacts on wider socio-economic development of vulnerable community.

Based on the paper presenter's 10 years long experience in the issues and the study of six community forest user groups, three from each of DFID/UK and CARE supported groups, the finding shows that the programme is suitable mechanism for planned, decentralized, cost effective, linked and inclusive adaptation strategies. The programme is initiated and groups are formed to address the issues of natural hazards and mal-adaptation practices the local people followed previously in responses to local changes. The groups adopt bottom up planning process to identify vulnerability and prepare adaption plan, collaborative effort to establish matching fund to implement prioritized activities and coordinating mechanism to integrate these activities into wider development programme. These practices increased the livelihoods security of marginal groups through increasing human and food security and forest product availability, building social capitals, use of indigenous knowledge and providing alternative livelihoods to the landless poor members, and deriving benefits from development service providers.

While community forestry policies and practices of Nepal seem climate change friendly exclusions persists and people who are member of the groups have opportunity
to get benefit from the adaptation fund while there are some households/communities are excluded from the groups. Also, limitation on extraction of forest products is in some instances undermining the livelihoods strategies of the forest dependant people limiting their adaptation capacity. There are also issues of resource access with members in particular can be constrained by poorly aligned jurisdiction.

The finding shows that the programme promotes entry points for pro-poor mitigation strategies. The growing stock of forest particularly in hills increased and the community forestry user groups have established resource distribution system based on wealth ranking of the groups, the mitigation strategies specifically the REDD mechanism may benefit to the poor category of the users. However, we find that the executive committees of CFUGs are politicized and the political ideology affects resource distribution. Also, there are high value forest trees, the illegal sale of which offers considerable financial intensives. So, particularly in the Terai, the conservation and management of forest may be competing with very high opportunity costs. Also, there are significant issues of land tenure conflicts between people and Government, VDCs (Village Development Committee), and communities, the result of which does not favor the protection, management and conservation of forest.

The findings suggest that CBCCA approach needs to integrate in rural development policies at landscape level. As the groups are growing as a local adaption funding institutions, the role of CFUGs should be linked with sources of credit and low-interest loans. To increase the community forest for mitigation, climate change sensitive forest management guidelines needs to developed and limited geographic and natural Radiative Forcing. Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC eds Stocker TF, et al.; [3] Cherubini F, Bright RM, & Strømman AH (2012) Environmental Research Letters 8(1): 014049; [4] Cherubini F, Gasser T, Bright RM, Ciais P, & Strømman AH (2014) Nature Clim. Change 4:983-987.

P-2216-02

## Disentangling the climate change contributions of CO2 emissions from global forest bioenergy

F. Cherubini (1)

(1) Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway

Many future energy and emission scenarios envisage an increase of bioenergy production in the global primary energy mix [1]. Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy systems remain open and partially unexplored. While the climate change effects of the different greenhouse gases (GHGs) are usually aggregated into common units (e.g., radiative forcing, CO2-equivalents, or °C), for example using emission metrics like the well-known global warming potential (GWP) or Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) [2], emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are not implemented in global emission scenarios. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored, with integrated assessment models and policy directives mainly focused on the quantification and mitigation of the risks associated with deforestation and land use changes. Whereas recent studies show that the temperature change of CO2 emissions from re-growing biomass is characterized by an initial warming followed by a smaller long term cooling [3], an analysis that disentangles the role of CO2 emissions from bioenergy with a global coverage, and within the policy relevant framework linking temperature peak and emissions is still missing [4]. Here, the characteristics of the climate system response to CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy is investigated within the 2 °C target and global spatially explicit maps of emission metrics for the climate impact characterization of CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy are produced. These metrics can be used to unravel the contributions to climate change of CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy, as here exemplified by assessing these emissions under the RCP8.5 scenario.

The metrics are correlated with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables and the characterized results are sensitive to the specific metrics used that inform about different dimensions of the climate system response to forest bioenergy. The temperature peak from bioenergy CO2 emissions is proportional to the maximum rate at which emissions occur and is nearly insensitive to the amount of cumulative emissions. While the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) of CO2 from fossil fuels is approximately constant, the TCRE to bioenergy emissions depends on time, biomass turnover times, and emission scenarios. The linearity between temperature peak and bioenergy CO2 emission rates thus resembles the response to short-lived climate forcers. As for the latter, the timing of CO2 emissions from bioenergy matters. Under the international agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C by 2100, early emissions from bioenergy has smaller contributions on the targeted temperature than emissions postponed later into the future. The application of these metrics to CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy in the RCP8.5 scenario shows that emissions in 2015 cause a warming effect that is about 45% (expected range: 38-60%) of the gross emission flows when GWPs are used. On the other hand, the result in 2100 is a net climate cooling if GTPs are applied. A temperature peak about 35% (12-46%) less than that caused by an equal amount of emissions from fossil fuels is found. Without coupling the analysis with global climate, CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy can thus be assessed under different climate change indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales using the global maps presented in this study.

[1] Van Vuuren DP, Elie Bellevrat, Kitous A, & Isaac M (2010) The Energy Journal 31: 221-241; J. Myhrvold, et al., 2013) and Natural Radiative Forcing. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC eds Stocker TF, et al.; [3] Cherubini F, Bright RM, & Strømman AH (2012) Environmental Research Letters 8(1): 014049; [4] Cherubini F, Gasser T, Bright RM, Ciais P, & Strømman AH (2014) Nature Clim. Change 4:983-987.

P-2216-03

## A bioeconomic modelling of logged tropical forests to simulate low-carbon strategies for Central African concessions

F. Claeyse (1) ; P. Delacote (2) ; S. Gourlet-Fleury (1) ; A. Karsentse (1) ; F. Mortier (1)

(1) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical Forest Goods and Ecosystem Services (BSEF), Montpellier, France; (2) French National Institute of Forest and Natural Resources (INRA), Laboratory of forest economics (lef), Nancy, France

Among the contributions expected from forest sectors in policies of climate mitigation, one consists in increasing forest carbon stocks by changing management practices. This activity, generally referred to as Improved Forest Management (IFM), is of major importance in the Congo basin forests, where 20 millions of hectares are now managed for timber production. The carbon benefit generated by IFM activities is often obtained by a reduction of harvesting pressures on forest resources. In the case of Extension of Rotation Age/Cutting Cycle (ERA) projects, the reduction of emissions comes from the increase of Minimum Cutting Diameters (MCD) and/or the extension of Felling Cycle Duration (FCD). However, such activities have negative consequences for the profitability of timber companies. Climate instruments such as the mechanism of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) promote a compensatory approach to cover these income losses by the valuation of avoided carbon emissions.

To determine the feasibility of such a carbon-based compensation, it is necessary to predict over the long term both the dynamics of forest carbon and the time schedule of timber incomes. The two are closely interrelated. Selective logging can alter the structure, the floristic composition, and thus, the carbon stocks of tropical forests. Modelling these forest-logging relationships is challenging. Selective logging implies to deploy a species level representation of timber harvesting but the high diversity of tropical forests, in pair with the scarcity of data, hinders the correct fitting of species-specific models.
We developed a bioenergy coupling a mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models for forest dynamics and an object-oriented model for forest logging companies' operations. For forest dynamics, our methodology addresses the challenge of taking into account the high species richness by simultaneously clustering tree species into groups according to vital rate information and selecting group-specific explicative environmental variables. For the logging operations, the object-oriented approach allows us to precisely describe harvest choices under technical and economic constraints, in a highly configurable manner. In the case of a Central African forest concession managed by a typical sawnwood export-oriented company, we predicted the carbon stock evolution for a wide range of ERA scenarios and for a time scale of 100 years. For several categories of carbon credit, we calculated break-even prices that would enable carbon revenues to compensate logger's loss of timber incomes.

Our simulations are based on data from the M'Baiki site, in the Central African Republic (CAR), which has been monitored for 30 years through a collaborative partnership with various French and CAR institutional and research organizations. Economic data are taken from several forest concessionaires in Central Africa. We predicted that without any logging, carbon stock would increase naturally. When logging was simulated, the carbon stock decreased during the first felling cycle and although carbon recovery could be boosted by logging, this decrease was too sharp to catch up with unlogged levels. To ensure low break-even prices of carbon credits, ERA activities had to involve both FCD and MCD. In this case, we found a little dependence of the private discount rate and the alternative MCD and FCD, but a strong dependence of the way how carbon credits are accounted. Thus, from the perspective of the forest concessionaires, the carbon stock is the chosen type of credits, carbon revenues could compensate timber revenues for a large number of ERA projects.

We focused on IFM projects, but our approach remains appropriate for other strategies of forest sustainability improvement such as Reduced Impact Logging techniques or post-logging silvicultural systems. In the current context of REDD+, there is a first step to bring some preliminary answers to the question of carbon-based compensation opportunities for industrial forest concessions in Central Africa, on the basis of an accurate modelling of tropical forestry.

## P-2216-04

### Dynamics of vegetation in Managed forest: the case of Missirah Forest in Senegal

LC. Faye (1) ; S. Bienvenu (2) ; K. Boateng (3)

(1) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Department of civil engineering, KUMasi, Ghana; (2) Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, Faculty of science and technology, Dakar, Senegal; (3) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Natural resources, KumaSi, Ghana

In the global climate change discussion, forest management has become a major concern because of the significant role of forest in climate change as both pool and source of carbon dioxide. Climate change discussion points out the important role of forest sector in climate change mitigation, leading to mechanisms like Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). The concept of REDD launched in the 11th Conference of the Parties in 2005 became later REDD+ integrating sustainable forest management, forest conservation, and carbon sink enhancement. In Africa, there are only few operational REDD+ programs but, the idea behind the literature are mostly the same. Nevertheless some factors are more specific to some areas. In the southern part of Senegal namely in Tambacounda and Kolda which are the main charcoal supply areas of the country, deforestation is correlated to wood extraction mainly charcoal production. Charcoal production contributes for more than 30% in deforestation in Senegal. To curb deforestation due to charcoal production, some forests were specifically managed for charcoal production under management plans where rules are set to make the production sustainable. Past studies related to forest management

in Senegal focused mainly on the decentralization of forest management process, the effect of the institutional pluralism on the decentralization and the management of forest resources, the function of the forest management plan in the new Senegalese Forest code, the evolution of forest management in Senegal, and the effects of charcoal production on woodland regeneration. However there is a lack of relevant information on the dynamic of vegetation in managed forest comparing vegetation state baseline to the situation after a full rotation period. This information are relevant in the light of the willingness to expand the process in a large number of forests. Therefore this study aims at assessing the dynamic of vegetation in Missirah Forest. Specifically it consists of characterizing vegetation type state in 2013, determining their dynamic through the mapping of the land cover land use types from1990 to 2014, and determining vegetation dynamics in terms of floristic composition and dendrometric parameters between 2002 and 2013

Missirah Forest is the one first 3 managed forests for charcoal production in 2004. A mapping of the land use-land cover types was combined with a tree inventory to characterize the current status of the vegetation in 2013 and its dynamics between 2002 and 2013 using 94 circular plots in table lands and 57circular plots in gallery forest. The mapping of the LULC identifies 6 vegetation types namely tree savannah, shrub savannah, degraded shrub savannah, gallery forest, farmland, and settlement areas. It reveals a decrease of area covered by vegetation at the expense of cropland and the appearance of a new vegetation type resulting from the degradation of the other vegetation type. The result of the tree inventory reveals that the vegetation types and the farmland shelter a total of 54 species belonging to 18 families and 42 genera. Inventory data were analyzed according to land use land cover types. Mean diameter at breast height (dbh), tree density, stem density, mean Lorel height and mean basal area in the different land-use land cover were greater in gallery forest. These dendrometric parameters were also found to be significantly different among vegetation types (p<0.05) in 2013. The analysis of variance(ANOVA) conducted on the negative binomial model shows that between 2002 and 2013 from a vegetation type to another the difference in terms of diversity is highly significant (p<0.05) while from a year to another it is not significant (p>0.05). The K-mean method applied to the IVI of species identifies three classes defining species with increased, decreased, and relative stability. Dendrometric parameters show greater values in 2002 except for stem density in tree savannah. Significant difference was observed for tree density, basal area, and mean Lorel height between 2002 and 2013.

## P-2216-05

### Population growth and deforestation in the Lake Albert region (Uganda) at the start of oil production

V. Golaz (1) ; C. Mérdard (2) ; F. Kisekka-Ntale (3)

(1) INED, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Paris, France; (3) DRASPAC, Kampala, Uganda

In the early colonial days, a deep political and demographic crisis hit the eastern shores of Lake Albert, Uganda (Doyle). Large areas were then set aside as forest and game reserves. Later on migratory policies and practices shifted and the area became a land frontier. Migrant settlement was encouraged by government from the 1950s onwards. New settlements were promoted by the United Nations and the start of a new oil frontier. Through a detailed mapping of population densities and growth and an analysis of qualitative interviews conducted in 2012-2014 in a collaborative research framework (M-PRAM, CPAS - IRD, Makerere University), we highlighted increased vulnerability and inequalities as well as potential conflicts. Although climate variability is a factor of change locally, the short term issue shaping resource depletion is governance.
# Community Based Forest Management for Future Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation - Evidences from Northwestern Mountain Region of Pakistan

## K. Iqbal (1)

(1) University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to global climate change and people living in these areas are first to be affected because their livelihoods are dependent on natural resources (land, pastures, water and forests). Natural forests are a vital component of the daily lives of the mountain communities and it is well documented that degradation in forest resources has adverse effects on the livelihoods of these communities. Forest protection through sustainable forest management strategies is considered as an alternate strategy to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change but the governments of developing countries face many challenges regarding forest management due to poor top-down governance and corruption. Participatory forest management has emerged as an effective strategy for sustainable forest governance. In this perspective this paper reports the findings of an ongoing research projects regarding community based forest management and its link with climate change in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan. KP province is less developed as compared to other provinces of the country, and its mountain areas are among the least developed regions. This area is regarded as highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Farming, one of the major livelihood activity and is a main source of food for the local dwellers, is dependent on the climatic and weather conditions. Similarly, forest resources are also important for household income and meeting the needs for fuel for cooking.

In response to very high deforestation in the mountainous regions of KP, the government initiated the process of community based forest management in the province with the objective to reduce forest depletion with the help of community participation.

This paper attempts to analyze the impact of community forest management on climate change mitigation efforts as well as on the livelihoods of local communities. The paper also attempts to answer the question that how the efforts of the state and communities regarding climate change mitigation are augmented (or otherwise) with the help of system. More specifically, the paper addresses the following questions:

1. What are the patterns of climate change in the study area?

2. What is the impact of participatory forest management on livelihoods of local communities?

3. How local livelihoods and farming practices changing with time and what are the coping strategies of farmers in the event of climate extremes?

4. What are the perceptions of local people regarding sustainable forest management and climate change mitigation in the context of participatory forest management?

5. What is the link of participatory forest management with future climate change mitigation and adaptation?

Key-informant interviews and focus group discussion was used to collect information from farmers of selected villages. Life histories of some respondents were also recorded find-out how changes in forest management paradigm are linked with livelihoods and farming practices and climate change.

# Linking adaptation and mitigation in carbon sequestration projects: evidence from Belize

## R. Kongsager (1); E. Corbera (2)

(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark; (2) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

We develop a multi-dimensional framework to explore the extent to which carbon forestry initiatives integrate adaptation concerns, and use three Belizeian projects as case material. We demonstrate that the rhetoric of linking mitigation and adaptation is not easy to hold, because the mandate of forest carbon markets does not incorporate adaptation concerns. Projects' contribution to adaptation relate to unintended forestry and biodiversity aspects while, critically, their mitigation potential is debatable and their livelihood outcomes are limited in scope and relevance. We conclude that integration of adaptation and mitigation in Belize's carbon offset projects remains a laudable but elusive goal.

# Climatic impacts on managed forests: predicting the future from the past

S. Martel (1); D. Picart (1); C. Moisy (1); S. Lafont (1); D. Loustau (1); A. Bosc (1); O. Picard (2); V. Badeau (3); N. Bréda (3); J. Boiffier (3)

(1) INRA, Ispa, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) CNPJ, IdF, Paris, France; (3) INRA, Eef ecologie et ecophysiologie forestières, Champenoux, France

Forests are one of the most vulnerable ecosystem under the coming climate change and a growing concern arise about their capacity to maintain ecosystem services such as production of timber, fiber and energy, climate and hydrological regulations, or soil and biodiversity protection. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale, but also on the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle, e.g. through continuous shifts in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, air temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. This will affect not only the functioning of forests in situ but also the range and geographical distribution of forest tree species and therefore the spatial distribution of ecosystem services and production across countries and continents.

The long term sustainable management of European forests must account for these dynamic changes and the interactions between climate and forests. Observations of forest functioning growth and distribution for the last decades provide a rich information about forest response to climatic shifts and extreme events and the way management interplays with these impacts.

We present in this communication how two modeling approaches for predicting the future of managed forest at country scale might optimize past observations to strengthen their likelihood and reduce uncertainty of their projections. In situ observation networks such as flux tower networks (FLUXNET, ICOS), ICP forest network and National Forest Inventories are the main data sources used.

The climate niche modeling predicts the potential distribution of forest species in the geographic domain using past observations of climate and water balance and presence/absence of tree species. Results show an expected poleward shift of forest biomes or species due to global warming and water balance changes that may reach several 10s to 100s of km during the 21st century. Similarly, a process based model can be calibrated and evaluated using past observations to predict forest functioning as forced by climate scenarios. The energy balance and the carbon and water cycles in the soil-plant-atmosphere system are modeled at an hourly scale and integrated over an annual basis. As one of the main disturbance in the temperature forests, management is integrated through practices such as ploughing, thinning or clearcutting.

Long time series of flux measurements in monospecific forest stands are used to calibrate the model while adjusting parameters. In a second step, models have been run in various ecological conditions and we have compared the outputs to long time series of observed data from forest inventories or monitoring networks to model predictions. Last, we use climate projections derived from RCP scenarios until 2100 at 8x8 km grid to force the models.

This work is conducted across the French metropolitan area for 3 of the main European forest species: Maritime Pine, common Beech and Douglas-fir. Our results provide an evaluation of the ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, wood supply, water regulation) taking into account climate change. Based on these results we will
discuss about the way to manage/optimize these French forests in the future. To enhance cooperation between researchers and stakeholders, a panel of managers and decision makers has been involved to implement various forest management scenarios in the model.

P-2216-09

Managing of risks in Agriculture: Benefits of Conservation of forest resources in Anambra State, Nigeria

O. Ogbonna (1)

(1) University of Nigeria, Agricultural Extension, Nsukka,
Enugu State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Forest management offers a promising alternative to depletion of forest resources. Continuous degradation of the forest reserve base has major effects on other segments of the economy. This includes reduction of forest cover leading to erosion and soil degradation. This study assessed the roles of farmers in conservation of forest resources; benefits of conservation of forest resources in the area and reasons for loss of forest resources in the area. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 120 respondents for the study. Data were analysed with the use of descriptive statistics. Results show that reasons for loss of forest resources included: excessive farming (M=2.8) and urbanisation (M=2.0). Roles of farmers in conserving forest resources were: avoidance of illegal hunting and poaching (M=3.0), practicing continuous forestation (M=3.2) and prevention of bush burning in forest areas (M=3.3). Benefits of Conservation of forest resources in the area included: protection of forest cover (M=2.3), prevention of climate change (M=2.4) and retaining economic benefits from the forest (M=2.5). Hence it was recommended that there should proper planning for farming and urbanisation for conservation of forest resources in the area.

P-2216-10

Multiple trade-offs in forest management
facing climate change

JL Peyron (1)

(1) ECOFOR, PARIS, France

Forests are able to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration, storage, and substitution. But these different options are generally conflicting. How should they be combined? This question is a first major challenge for forest management and policy. In parallel, forests are impacted by climate change through trends (beneficial or detrimental) and extreme events. They may adapt and deserve to be adapted to these gradual or brutal phenomena. Integration of trends and extreme events is a second major challenge for forestry. Adaptation and mitigation have to be distinguished because they are very different responses to climate change. In the same time, they are interrelated since mitigation supports carbon regulation as an ecosystem service influenced by forest adaptation. Synergies and trade-offs between forest adaptation and mitigation are a third challenge. Finally, climate change issues are only a part of sustainable forest management and trade-offs also exist between climate change measures and sustainability at large. This presentation will comment these four issues from models running at national and stand levels.

At national scale, the carbon balance of French forests will be projected over the 21st century according to scenarios combining various harvest options with different climate change intensities. At stand level, a micro economic model will combine trends and extreme events, mitigation options and climate change impacts in order to find the best rotation age. The results of these models at two different scales will then be discussed in the frame of sustainable forest management.

P-2216-11

National Strategy for Adaption to Climate
Change in Hemiboreal Estonia: Forestry

H. Tullus (1) ; M. Suškevičis (2) ; A. Tullus (3) ; R. Lutter (1)

(1) Estonian University of Life Sciences, Institute of forestry and rural engineering, Tartu, Estonia; (2) Estonian University

of Life Sciences, Institute of agricultural and environmental sciences, Tartu, Estonia; (3) University of Tartu, Institute of ecology and earth sciences, Tartu, Estonia

Climate change can considerably affect ecosystems and different bioeconomy-sectors. In addition to climate change mitigation it is important to know relevant adaptation options. Many EU states already have national adaptation strategies and action plans. Estonia will have a comprehensive national adaptation strategy and action plan in 2016.

The special project for adaptation policies in Estonia is created in 2015: „Climate change adaptation strategy and measures for thematic fields of natural environment and bioeconomy: BioClim.“ (http://pk.emu.ee/en/structure/landscapemanagement/projects/bioclim/project/).

There is a chapter about forestry in the National Strategy Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Estonia. Also in the Estonian Forestry Development Plan until 2020 the climate change impacts and mitigation is concerned (http://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/elfinder/article_files/mak2020vastuvoetud.pdf).

Basic studies about climate change impact on functioning of forest ecosystems are conducted in Estonia in the Free Air Humidity Manipulation Experiment (FAHM, https://sisu.ut.ee/fahm1/main). FAHM experimental facility was created in collaboration with researchers of plant ecophysiology, applied ecology and forestry from University of Tartu and Estonian University of Life Sciences. FAHM is a unique open-air experiment where acclimation and functioning of trees and forest stands under elevated atmospheric humidity conditions is studied. Results of FAHM and their theoretical interpretation is a basis for prognosis of climate change impact on Estonian forest ecosystems and life activities of trees.

Climate change will likely cause significant long-term changes in the entire Estonian forest sector. The main impacts of climate change for hemiboreal forests and forest management in Estonia are:

* The proportions of tree species and balance between coniferous and deciduous forests will change.

* Forest industry must consider with changes in local wood assortment.

* The quality of timber may reduce.

* Extreme weather events may cause considerable and unavoidable damage.

* The risk of wind damages will increase.

* The reduced period of frozen ground makes timber harvesting more difficult.

* Increasing precipitation means more investment into forest roads and ditches.

* One of the most important possible hazards associated with climate change concerns forest pests and diseases, especially outbreaks of invasive diseases and mass production of insect pests.

Novel adaptation methods must be elaborated in forest plant production, tree selection and breeding, tending of forests, forest protection, felling systems and forest pathology.

P-2216-12

Potential Risk of Wildfire under Climate
Change in Croatia

M. Vucetic (1)

(1) METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE,
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, ZGREB, Croatia

The weather conditions such as a long-lasting dry spell and isolation duration, high air temperature and strong wind essentially increase the potential risk for starting and spreading of wildfires. All these relevant factors are observed on the Croatian Adriatic coast and islands and lead to the conclusion that the Adriatic area is prone to wildfires during summer season. The main goal is to research the impact of climate change on the potential greater risk of wildfires in Croatia from May to
September. Monthly and seasonal severity rating (MSR and SSR) are used as indices for the potential risk assessment of forest fires which are one of the products of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. According to the map presentation of mean long-term seasonal severity ratings for the standard climatic period 1961-1990, the most endangered area is the mid-Adriatic coast with the adjacent islands. Using the secular weather series of Crikenivica and Hvar in the period (1901-2014), which represent the northern and middle Croatian coast and islands respectively, the secular variations of MSR has been estimated. In order to establish the eventual increase in potential wildfire risk on the Croatian mountainous hinterland and lowlands the secular data of Gospic, Zagreb-Cric and Osijek has also been used for the MSR assessment. A significant monthly increase (significant

level is 0.05) in the MSR was observed for Crikenivica for all months of the period considered and for Hvar in June and July. This increase is particularly important for June, as it indicates the possibility of the earlier onset of the forest fire season on the Adriatic area. The analysis also showed spreading of high potential risk of wildfire from the mid-Adriatic to the northern, especially in July and August in the last 114 years. However, positive trend of potential risk of wildfire noticed in the eastern part of Croatia in the last 64 years. Tendency of increase the potential risk of wildfires in Croatia is in accordance with the projections of climate change. Thus, fire forest regime in our country fits well into the larger picture of increasing areas of high threat of wildfires in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe in the summer months in future.

# 2217 - Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2217-01

#### Robust knowledge on land use change and climate at the science-policy interface

J. House (1); A. Arnett (2); R. Berman (3); A. Cescatti (4); E. Massey (5); N. De Noblett-Ducoudré (6); L. Perugini (7); A. Popp (8); M.D. Rounsevell (9); A. Savaresi (10); D. Van Vuuren (11)

(1) University of Bristol, School of geographical sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom; (2) KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (4) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Risk Management, Ispra, Italy; (5) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vu university, Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (6) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (7) Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Division on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy; (8) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (9) University of Edinburgh, School of geographical sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (10) University of Edinburgh, School of Law, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (11) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) contributed 24% of total greenhouse gas emissions and 11% of CO2 emissions in the 2000-2009 period (IPCC, 2014). Land-based mitigation strategies are essential to achieve the 20C target, with most current scenario projections invoking substantial negative emissions from afforestation and from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), in addition to Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) and improved agricultural management. Reporting and accounting of some LULUCF activity is already embedded in international climate policy. Negotiations leading up to adoption of new international policies at the Paris 2015 Climate Summit include further LULUCF activities, particularly REDD+. This reliance on land-based mitigation options necessitates that LULUCF policy is in-line with the latest evidence across the natural, economic and social sciences, and that scientific research reflects policy needs. This presentation will review the importance of LULUCF mitigation options in current and planned policy, indicating mismatches with scientific knowledge, often due to different considerations of spatial and temporal scales. We will also explore time lags between the emerging scientific insights, policy targets and commitments and changes in activity leading to desired changes in physical and ecological systems.

For example, scientific research has long emphasised the importance of REDD+ as a low cost, multiple-benefit near-term mitigation option, although international policy is only just catching up. New analyses of the biophysical climate impacts of land use change from both observations and Earth System Modelling (ESM) further confirm the importance of tropical forests as providing a cooling effect through changes in the surface energy budget and in evapotranspiration rates. The biophysical climate

effects of afforestation in temperate and boreal areas can however either amplify the biogeochemical cooling effects (e.g. through enhanced evapotranspiration in summer) or dampen them (e.g. through reduced surface albedo in winter). In the global scale, net biophysical effects are small and biogeochemical effects of land sources and sinks of CO2 dominate the climate impacts of LULUCF. The regional nature of the effects and the still large uncertainty in the science imply that the evidence base is not yet sufficient to implicate changes in international mitigation policy, particularly related to afforestation/reforestation activities, although effects are likely be important to consider in regional or national adaptation policy. Biophysical effects should be considered in the current development of land-based mitigation scenarios and modelling capability for the next generation of integrated climate-nature-society-policy projections so the implications can be assessed.

Bioenergy has been one sector where controversies in scientific understanding, socio-economic modelling and policy implementation have been particularly apparent and there is a need for the stronger use of evidence and more joined up approach. Recent studies suggest that in the longer term bioenergy may provide larger offsetting potential than afforestation where contribution is small once forests reach maturity. However, to fully reach the potential it will be important to ensure technological improvements, assessment of full life-cycle costs, and the implementation of sustainability criteria. Given the potential lags in scientific, technological and uptake steps, more resources needs to be put in place now or soon if BECCS is to be expected to contribute significantly to global mitigation by 2050.

### K-2217-02

#### 'Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts' (LUCID): What have we learned from this project (2008-2013)? Suggestions / attempts to move forward

N. De Noblett-Ducoudré (1); A. Pitman (2); V. Brovking (3)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (2) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, The university of new south wales, Sydney, Australia; (3) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

The objectives of the LUCID international project are to qualify and quantify robust biogeochemical and biogeochemical land-use induced land-cover changes on climate (LULUCF) from pre-industrial times to nowadays, and from today till the end of the 21st century. By 'robust' we mean that is above the noise generated by model variability and consistent across multiple climate models.

Two steps were undertaken for the 1st phase: one focused on historical climate (from ~1870 till years 2000), and another looking into the future (outlook and papers may be found on our web site: http://www.lucidproject.org.au/index.html).

Seven modelling groups contributed to the historical part. They all conducted two series of two experiments using
observed annually and seasonally varying SST and sea ice extent for both present-day and pre-industrial conditions, forced with two sets of land cover distributions reflecting the state of the canopy respectively in ~1870, and ~1992.

We have demonstrated that climate change in large regions of the northern hemisphere may be as much influenced by LULCC than by changes in global quantities (CO₂, SSS, etc.) with either amplifying or dampening effects. Moreover extremes (e.g. temperature) simulated in climate models are quite sensitive to LULCC (Pitman et al. 2012). Detection/attrribution of local to regional changes in climate/meteorology may therefore be strongly biased if one does not account for changes in local to regional land-uses. Similarly we emphasized that downscaling of global climate simulations must include land-cover (and/or land-use) changes.

We have also shown that the response of individual models to deforestation varies not only in magnitude but also in sign from one model to another for some variables such as latent heat flux. This diversity could certainly be better constrained by a proper evaluation of our land-surface models (or DGVMS) in both an off-line and on-line mode. There is a need to properly understand the sensitivity of LULCC when coupled LSM-GCMs to land cover changes and to land uses using a wide range of observations as for example was done in Boisier et al. (2013 and 2014).

During the LUCID exercise, we have discovered that going from a set of crops and pasture maps to land-cover maps was not only a difficult task as it involves choices, but was also a mean to increase the dispersion between the models' results. There is therefore a need to harmonize the procedure to go from those maps to land-cover. This is highly important for the biogeophysical effect on climate, and is crucial for the carbon cycle. Moreover, as DGVMS become more complex and start to include better representation of crop function and management, we'll soon be facing the need to better interact upstream IAMS who provide climate modelers with such maps.

The LUCID community also contributed to the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and analyzed scenarios of future climate change. Six CMIP5 modeling groups performed additional LUCID-CMIP5 simulations without anthropogenic land-use changes from 2006 to 2100. Those analyses revealed that the effects of land-use changes on mean annual temperature in RCP8.5 and 2.6 scenarios were significant regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. Changes in land-surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use change (Brovkin et al., 2013). These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. Crops tend to warm climate in most areas and models. A causal link between LULCC forcing and the climate impact is found in some models where the presence of pastures tends to induce a local biogeophysical cooling which offsets a biogeochemical warming. Conversion to pastures thus may have a climate change mitigation potential but more detailed and idealized experiments are required.

K-2217-03

## Shared Socio-economic Pathways – a framework for assessing potential land use futures –

A. Popp (1); K. Calvin (2); P. Havlik (3); A. Shinichiro (4); E. Stehfest (5)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) JGCI, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States of America; (3) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (5) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands

Today, land-use and land-use change are responsible for approximately a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, largely from tropical deforestation, methane emissions from livestock and rice cultivation, and nitrogen oxide emissions from livestock and fertilized soils. But, the land system is also seen to contribute much to climate change mitigation in the future by providing biomass for bioenergy, improved agricultural management and

conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. The degree of both, future emissions but also mitigation potential of the land depend strongly on uncertain trends in population growth, dietary changes, trade, possible demand for non-food products such as bioenergy, future developments in agricultural yields and relevant policies. Over time, these uncertainties may result in very different land-use patterns and associated emissions.

Scenario analysis has been established as a tool to explore and evaluate such extensive uncertainties associated with possible future developments. Recently, new scenarios have been developed that are organized around two important dimensions: The five radiative forcing levels consist of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) which determines the amount of climate change. The possible future socio-economic conditions that could correspond to individual forcing levels are then described in the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The SSPs provide 5 different stories of future socio-economic development, including possible trends in agriculture and land use. Future emissions and carbon stock dynamics in the land system are a function of complex interaction between all kinds of socio-economic factors, including population dynamics, economic development, technological change, trade, cultural and institutional changes and interaction with other sectors such as bioenergy demand for energy supply and transport. In each of the SSPs, climate policies can be introduced to reduce emissions or to enhance carbon uptake to reach radiative forcing level targets consistent with the RCP scenarios.

In this presentation, we will first present relevant aspects of the SSP framework for the land system. Then, based on a strategy that applied the scenario matrix approach combining climate forcing and socioeconomic dimensions for so-called integrated assessment models (IAMs) with dedicated land use modules, we will focus on possible future pathways for these drivers and their consequences on the land system, associated emissions and mitigation potential.

O-0227-01

## Risk-aversion Behavior in Smallholder Farmers and Climate Change. Evidence from Empirical Work in Zambia

A. De Pinto (1); V. Smith, (2); R. Robertson, (1); A. Haruna, (1)

(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) Montana State University, Economics, Bozeman, United States of America

When the economic effects of climate change are considered, decision-making under uncertainty and risk are arguably at the forefront of the problems that need to be analyzed. The consensus is that, in the developing world, smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and, especially, to the adverse consequences that derive from more volatile and extreme weather events with which climate change is associated. Further, there is overwhelming empirical evidence that risk considerations affect farmers' land allocation and other input usage decisions as well as their technology adoption choices. However, apart from the body of research on index insurance, an extensive review of the empirical literature that deals with climate change reveals that uncertainty and the role of risk-aversion are notably not taken into account in models that estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, market prices and food security for the poor. In particular, those models do not consider the effect of climate change related increases in yield and price volatility on farm household choices with respect to production strategies that provide adaptation or mitigation services. In fact, farmers and farm households respond to changes in the riskiness of their decision making environments as well as to changes in expected average yields, crop prices and input prices. How they respond to these factors, and their attitudes to risk and widely viewed as important in many contexts, not least when exogenous shocks such as climate change alter the fundamental nature of the production environment in which farmers operate. We therefore explore the role of risk in the farm household's production decisions by using a widely available household survey of farmers in Zambia to build a theoretically based empirical model of land-use choices. The model accounts for attitudes to risk in analyzing the effects of climate change on farm-level land allocation to crop production. The empirical specification
is based on a relatively simple discrete-choice model (nest log) augmented by risk variables consistent with a mean-variance utility function. After the system is shocked with changes in temperatures, precipitation, and distribution of crop yields consistent with regional effects of climate change, the household decisions and the resulting production trends are aggregated and evaluated at the country level. Shifts in the geographical pattern of crop production appear evident using this analysis with crops like millet and cassava largely replacing maize production. More importantly, results indicate that in the case of Zambia the aggregate effects of risk-mitigating decisions exacerbate trends driven by the biophysical changes caused by climate change. These decisions represent a form of adaptation of small households to the changing climate. The effects of this form of adaptation, developed in the constraints of smallholder production, appear to be detrimental for the total output from the agricultural sector with important implications for market prices and food security for both the rural and urban poor. Three important conclusions follow from our analysis. First, risk matters; its effects on farmers' production decisions should not be ignored and should be accounted for in empirical models of the impacts of climate change. Second, concentrating on farm-level responses to climate change is not sufficient. It is essential to develop methods of aggregating individual responses to climate-change-related shifts in risk so that they can be reflected in models of regional and national crop and livestock markets. This is required to better understand the implications of climate change for ecosystem services and food and income security. Third, our results suggest that not accounting for farmers' risk attitudes can lead to significant mistakes in policy planning. It is also the case that a more accurate estimate of the effects of climate change on farmers' land-use and production decisions will enable policy makers to make more accurate assessments of the benefits of climate change. A wide range of policies intended to mitigate climate change's adverse effects.

## O-2217-02

### Quantifying the impact of LULCC on bio-chemical cycles into the future under alternative mitigation and policy scenarios. What are the carbon and water costs of different mitigation options?

M. Groenendijk (1) ; P. Anthoni (2) ; A. Arneth (2) ; A. Bondeau (3) ; P. Ciais (4) ; JC. Doelman (5) ; P. Friedlingstein (1) ; F. Humpenöder (6) ; A. Krause (2) ; W. Li (4) ; C. Müller (6) ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudre (4) ; A. Popp (6) ; TAM. Pugh (2) ; S. Sitch (1) ; E. Stehfest (5) ; D. Van Vuuren (5) ; C. Yue (4) (1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) KIT, Atmospheric environmental research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) Institut Méditerranée de Biodiversité et d'Écologie Marine et Continental, Aix-en-Provence, France; (4) Laboratoire des Sciences de la Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (5) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (6) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Future impacts of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) on the biochemical cycles and biophysics are highly uncertain. Firstly, there are large uncertainties in possible future scenarios due to socio-economic parameters (e.g., food demand, trade liberalisation, technological development). Secondly, there are uncertainties in how cropland, pasture and natural vegetation respond to changes in climate. With a model comparison we address both these uncertainties. Three different future scenarios are run with the Integrated Assessment Models (IMAs) IMAGE and MAgPIE. The socio-economic setting in all scenarios is based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2), and all scenarios include climate change impacts for RCP2.6, which have direct effects on crop yields and terrestrial carbon stocks, and indirect effects on land-use change. A bio-energy with carbon capture and storage scenario (BECCS) and an afforestation and avoidance of deforestation scenario (AD+AFF) are compared to a reference scenario with no land-based mitigation (REF). The land use changes from these 6 IAM scenarios are subsequently used to run the 4 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) JULES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJml and ORCHIDEE. This comparison will show the impact of different future mitigation scenarios on the carbon and water balance, the contribution of natural vegetation and crop yields over the 21st century.

O-2217-03

### Understanding the role of land management for carbon and climate mitigation under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the Community Earth System Model

P. Lawrence (1) ; B. O'Neill (2)

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States of America;

(2) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), land cover change and wood harvest were prescribed as major climate forcings for historical and future. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections. Lawrence et al. (2012) described how land cover change was prescribed in all of these simulations and how the climate system and carbon cycle responded to the land cover change in concert to other transient forcing in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The attribution of carbon cycle and climate changes directly due to land cover change however, were not possible due to the design of the CMIP5 experiments. Through a series of new CESM simulations we have attributed the land cover change impacts for the historical time series as well as RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with and without land cover change. These simulations show that the direct land cover change fluxes to the atmosphere found in the CMIP5 simulations did not account for the lost uptake of carbon that would have been possible in the absence of land cover change and wood harvest. Once these losses are taken into account, the historical losses of terrestrial carbon increased from 61.2 PgC to 129.6 PgC, the RCP 4.5 uptake of 62.8 PgC changed to a loss of 5.8 PgC, and the RCP 8.5 loss of 49.0 PgC increased to 168.8 PgC. In order to assess the potential of land management to mitigate carbon and climate consequences we are currently simulating RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with large scale global afforestation scenarios compared to maximum biofuel production through increased crop lands. In this talk we present the differences in all of these experiments for both ecosystem carbon and climate. To conclude this presentation we will provide details on the proposed land use simulations for CMIP6, currently being designed in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP).

## O-2217-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2217-01

### Zero-Tillage lessens soil CO2 emissions the most under arid and sandy soil conditions: results from a meta-analysis

K. Abdalla (1) ; V. Chaplot (2) ; P. Chivenge (1)

(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Centre for Water Resources Research, School of Agricultural, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa; (2) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Laboratory of oceanography and climate (locien), pierre and marie curie university, Paris, France

The management of agroecosystems plays a crucial role in the global C cycle with soil tillage leading to known organic carbon redistributions within soils and changes in soil CO2 emissions. Yet discrepancies exist on the impact of tillage on soil CO2 emissions and on the main soil and environment controls. A meta-analysis was conducted using 46 peer reviewed publications totaling 174 observations comparing CO2 emissions from tillied (T) and no-tilled (NT) soils with the objective to quantify tillage impact on CO2 emissions and to assess the main controls. On average, T soils emitted 21% more CO2 than NT soils, which corresponded to a P<0.05. The difference increased to 29% in sandy soils from arid climates with low soil organic carbon content (SOC<1%), but tillage had no impact on CO2 fluxes in clayey soils of high SOCC (>3%). Finally, nitrogen fertilization and crop residue management had little effect on the CO2 responses of soils to tillage. These results on the role of soil and environmental conditions on soil CO2 emissions response to tillage are expected to increase our understanding of carbon outputs from arid systems as well as to set up effective mitigation measures of climate change
## Potential impacts of forestation on the future climate change in Southern Africa

### A. Babatunde (1) ; M. Naik (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Environmental And
Geographical Science, Cape Town, Western , South Africa

Many studies have projected the future climate change over Southern Africa, but without including the influence of on-going forestation activities in the region. The present study investigates how the forestation activities may trade the projected climate change. For the study, two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day (1970-2005) climate, and the future (2030-2065; IPCC RCP 4.5) climate, with and without forestation. The simulations account for the potential impacts of natural bush encroachment and the commercial forestation over the eastern part of South Africa. The results agree with previous studies in that the elevated greenhouse emissions would induce warming over Southern Africa in the future, but the results further indicate that forestation would enhance the warming over the forested area and induces cooling elsewhere. The additional warming over the forested area is due to the albedo-effect of the forestation, while the cooling is due to the dynamic feedback of the local warming over the forested area. For similar reasons, the forestation would induce both wet and dry conditions over the sub-continent in future. As a result of its combined influences on rainfall and aerodynamic, the forestation would enhance drought frequency over some areas. This study suggests that using forestation to mitigate the impacts of global warming may produce unintended climate impacts over some areas in Southern Africa. Hence, the biophysical effects of forestation in Southern Africa should be weighed against the biogeochemical benefits.

## Low-Density Development and the Increasing Greenhouse Emissions in Malaysian Special Economic Zones

### A. Barau (1)

(1) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Urban and Regional
Planning, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia

Low-density development is one of the major problems associated with rapid urbanization in the global south. Special economic zones (SEZs) constitute new layers of capital driven urbanization and industrialization in many Asian emerging economies. In many Asian countries, SEZs cause rapid fragmentation of landscapes within and around urban areas. This paper focuses on Iskandar Malaysia, one of the most successful emerging SEZs in Southeast Asia. This economic region has attracted more than US$25 billion so far from the expected US$100 billion investments in housing, education, tourism and infrastructure to be realized by 2025. Recent studies have projected that by 2025, if the business as usual model continues, the region's greenhouse emissions and energy consumption will increase more than 70% and 80% respectively. The paper aims to link and discuss how fragmentation of agricultural landscapes, mangroves, coastal vegetation and other green areas give rise to increasing emissions through new urban development projects. The current study relied heavily on fieldwork, landscape metrics for calculation of landscape change using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The study findings used established examples within the region and beyond, to estimate increases in emissions and carbon storage capacities from fragmented agricultural landscapes, mangroves, new low-density development activities, and expanded roads. The findings clearly show that landscape change is one of the principal source of carbon emissions that climate scientist underestimate in the Asian emerging economies. The study highlights the critical threats of low-density development in increasing carbon emission.

## Understanding complex networks, trade-offs and synergies within the science-

## policy domain for land-based climate mitigation

### R. Berman (1) ; MD. Rounsevell (2)

(1) University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences,
Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (2) University of Edinburgh,
School of geographical sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

The agriculture, forestry and other land use sector (AFOLU) is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigation within this sector, as well as the interplay between mitigation and adaptation, are crucial therefore in efforts to address climate change. The highly complex institutional structures of global climate policy and the 'wickedness' of the climate change problem lead to trade-offs and synergies, or overlaps and gaps, across land-based mitigation and adaptation policy. Hence there is a need to investigate and examine the mechanisms surrounding the policy environment. Many scientific studies on mitigation and adaptation claim important policy implications from their findings. Whilst a time-lag between the scientific understanding on both direct and indirect trade-offs and synergies within climate adaptation and (land-based) mitigation and policy may be expected, other gaps within the policy arena are likely to exist.

We map these complex policy and scientific arenas through a content analysis of the global scientific knowledge of climate change (from peer-reviewed literature) and of global policy approaches (using International Environmental Agreements). Overlaps and synergies between relevant topics and sectors that exist across different policy and science themes are identified and analysed through a network analysis approach. This approach enables not only the identification of key topics within the scientific and policy documents, but also the degree of overlap between these topics.

This presentation summarises the findings of a series of research questions which have sought to unpack the complex networks between science and policy, but also within global climate policy itself. These include:

* What are the key trade-offs and synergies within global land-based climate policy?

* How has the science-policy relationship changed historically?

* Is there a current mis-match between the global scientific understanding of land-based mitigation and adaptation and global climate policy?

By mapping the current policy network, we show that opportunities for policies to have triple-wins, supporting adaptation, mitigation and sector specific development. Furthermore, we identify gaps within the political environment to which future policy decisions should seek to contribute in order to deliver resource-efficient, land-based mitigation. Comparing the political network to the mapped network of current scientific understanding, we identify key trade-offs that policy needs to account for, and explore how this has varied over time.

## Land Use Change as Barrier and Enabler for Integrated Climate Change Responses

### I. Brown (1) ; D. Feliciano (2)

(1) James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (2)
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of
Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Land has a finite supply but is subject to an increasing range and intensity of demands that usually involve complex interactions between climate and socioeconomic factors. We have used detailed land use survey data and interviews to investigate these interactions in Scotland (UK) and how they may shape future landscapes using scenario analysis that combines these data with global drivers. The analysis shows the importance of considering 'path dependency' in the evaluation of both adaptation and mitigation land use options. It also highlights that current separation of adaptation and mitigation strategies can result in them 'competing' for the same area of land.

Biophysical factors that influence land supply, including climate and soils, have been analysed using land capability/suitability concepts to investigate the changing options
available for land managers. Socioeconomic factors have been summarised in terms of the 5 Ps (Policy, Preferences, Prices, Power, Path Dependence) to provide a framework for understanding their relative influence. These influences vary between different localities and regions, and particularly between lowland and upland landscapes. High quality land in the lowlands is currently prioritised for food production and much of the land in the uplands has very limited options therefore is effectively prioritised for nature conservation, tourism and recreation. This leaves an area of land that is currently of intermediate quality ('the Squeezed Middle') which has many competing and increasing demands: food, energy, water, afforestation, flood protection, infrastructure etc.; in particular, this land together with the uplands is identified as crucial for meeting climate mitigation targets for GHG emissions reduction.

However, the changing climate further complicates issues because it is affecting land quality (i.e. supply) concurrent with changes in demand due to drivers such as globalisation and new technology. The relative influence of top-down and bottom-up factors are therefore changing temporally and geographically, and are particularly exemplified by reactive adaptation responses to recent anomalous or extreme weather. Scenario analysis shows how these factors may play out in the future and how policy could have a more positive influence by encouraging integrated and planned adaptation in coordination with mitigation objectives.

We find that local preferences and the role of path dependence are currently having a high influence on land use decisions. Although land use options are being modified as climate change modifies land capability, the preferences of land managers are to extend options with which they are already familiar. This is usually due to aversion to the risks involved with uptake of new options and concerns over loss of policy support (particularly from the subsidies of the EU Common Agricultural Policy). As a consequence, adaptation measures tend to be mainly reactive and mitigation measures are extensions of those already in use.

In more marginal locations, the role of subsidy support is crucial in influencing land use choices, and this has resulted in new woodland tending to be marginalised to the poorest quality land despite its potential advantages in delivering both adaptation and mitigation benefits. On both high quality and marginal land, the role of policy in counteracting negative influences could be considerably enhanced through stronger spatial targeting of measures based upon local characteristics.

It is particularly salient to note that most land managers acknowledge that seasonal weather, which influences their planning and activities, is changing (regardless of attribution to anthropogenic climate change) and they recognise this as a key challenge that they need to better understand and manage. However, path dependence is often entrenched because to fully adapt to change requires negotiation and coordination with other land users over a larger area. Currently, policy is mainly developed sectorally and implemented through individual measures that discourages this coordination.

## P-2217-06

# Global assessment of the biophysical climate impacts of deforestation

A. Cescatti (1); R. Alkama (1)

(1) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Risk Management, Ispra, Italy

Deforestation impacts climate in two major ways: affecting the atmospheric CO2 concentration and modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water vapor. Given the important role of forests in the global carbon cycle, climate treaties account for land-based mitigation options like afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation or forest degradation. On the contrary, predicted climate impacts of biophysical processes, such as the exchange of energy and water vapor, are still uncertain in sign and magnitude, and therefore have not been considered in climate negotiations to date. Direct observations of the biophysical climate effects of forest losses and gains are therefore required to constrain model predictions, reduce the uncertainty of model ensembles, and provide robust recommendations to climate policy.

In this work we report an observation-driven global analysis of the biophysical impacts of forest losses and gains on the local climate, based on a combination of Earth observations of forest cover, surface radiometric temperatures and in-situ air temperatures. Our results document that deforestation causes local changes in air temperature that varies in sign and magnitude according to the climate zone. In addition, forest losses affect the local climate also by altering the diurnal and annual temperature variation, and by providing a global and robust quantification of the local climate sensitivities to deforestation and a novel assessment of the mitigation potentials of forests on the diurnal and seasonal temperature variations. Overall, the observation-driven, global quantification of the biophysical signal of deforestation provided in this study may support the inclusion of land biophysics in climate negotiations and the definition of novel protocols for the measurement, reporting, and verification of these relevant effects.

## P-2217-07

# Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

T. Davies-Barnard (1); P. Valdes (2); A. Wiltshire (3); C. Jones (3); J. Singaray (4)

(1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2)

University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office

Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land-use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs, and compare them to land-use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in earth system model HadGEM2-ES for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considered alone, the RCPs are to extend options, but the RCPs is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5, but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios, and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different timescales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs.

## P-2217-08

# Uncertainties of future land use change and the potentials of land-based mitigation - an analysis with the SSP scenarios and the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment modelling framework

J.C. Doelman (1); E. Stehfest (2); D. Van Vuuren (3)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,

Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) PBL

Netherlands; (3) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL,

Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Historically, the continuous increase in anthropogenic land use has been an important driver of CO2 emissions and biodiversity loss. The scale and dynamics of future land use change (LUC) are very uncertain. The recently proposed concept of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) allows us to systematically analyze some of the uncertainties. Integrated assessment models, like IMAGE, can explore the linkages within these scenarios between socio-economic drivers, technology projections, developments in the energy system, policy assumptions
and implications for future land-use. It can also look at future land use projections which are dynamically coupled to changes in the global climate and carbon cycle. This provides the possibility to determine the potential of land-based mitigation options, and directly assess the climate and carbon effects under different scenarios. In this contribution, we present a recent IMAGE analysis using the SSPs to explore the uncertainty in future land use in relation to mitigation action.

The analysis shows anthropogenic land use (cropland and pasture land) could increase by 4 million Gt (SSP3, driven mostly by population growth and dietary changes), but also decrease by 7 million Gt (SSP1, as a result of yield improvements and intensification). Cumulative CO2 emissions from LUC by 2100 range from an increase of 280 Gt CO2 (SSP3) to a decrease of 70 Gt CO2 (SSP1), equivalent to an increase of 36 ppm and a decrease of 9 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere respectively.

Land-based mitigation measures are an important component of ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. The implementation of options such as bio-energy, reforestation, REDD, agricultural intensification or dietary change have large potentials. However, the net impact depends highly on the control of implementation. To economic trends and land-based climate mitigation substantially affect the land-based mitigation potential, which is typically very location-dependent. The SSP analyses shows the potential of a range of mitigation options. An example is the implementation of REDD in an SSP1 scenario with ambitious climate mitigation, where areas with large carbon stocks are protected. This results in additional intensification of agricultural land due to limited land availability, and a shift of agricultural expansion to limited carbon stocks. Due to this measure, carbon emissions are reduced by 87 Gt CO2, equivalent to 11 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.

Next to biogeochemical climate effects, biophysical climate effects of LUC have a substantial impact. Regionally, the net temperature impact of changes in the land energy balance due to differences in albedo or evapotranspiration can be in the same order of magnitude as projected global warming. The location of change is very important, as deforestation in the tropics can lead to a surface warming of 0.5-1 degrees compared to a surface cooling in the highest latitudes of 3-4 degrees (Davin & Noblet-Ducoudre, 2010). As part of the LUC4C FP7 project, the biophysical effects of the SSP land use projections will be studied in collaboration with earth system models.

P-2217-09

## Genetic diversity of perennial grass species in response to temperature during germination

AJ. Escobar Gutiérrez (1) ; LQ. Ahmed (1) ; JL. Durand (2)

(1) INRA, Lusignan, France; (2) INRA, Environment et Agronomie, Lusignan, France

Grasslands cover more that 40% of earth's surface and at least 30% of the 160 Mha Agricultural Surface Area of Europe. They are among the largest ecosystems on earth and one of the major sources of forage. Further, in the context of climate change, grasslands are considered, similar to forest, as an important sink for atmospheric CO2. The agricultural use-value of grasslands depends on their floristic composition and the structure of their canopy. These two intertwined features directly determine the quality and the quantity of the biomass harvested by grazing or mowing. Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L), tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) and cockfoot (Dactylis glomerata L.) are the major perennial grass species in temperate and Mediterranean regions. However, during the lifespan of grassland, both floristic and genetic compositions as well as canopy structure evolve under the influences of environmental factors and the competitive interplay between individual. Floristic and genetic composition evolves because of individuals' mortality and recruitment of new species and genotypes from the soil seed-bank or natural sowing. Temperature is one of the major factors controlling plant development rates (i.e. plant phenology, organogenesis and expansive growth). It is important in controlling seed germination. Indeed, higher plant species, as well as populations, varieties and cultivars within species, respond differently to temperature and critical period of germination and seedling establishment in the field. Literature is

vast on this subject that is always a topical issue. In the context of global change, breeding grasses adapted to new ranges of temperature could be necessary. Knowing the variability of responses to temperature by different accession of germplasm is an unavoidable first step towards such breading. Thus, the objective of the work presented here was to analyse the genetic variability of L. perenne, F. arundinacea and D. glomerata in response to temperature during germination.

Eight populations of L. perenne L., nine populations of F. arundinacea and six populations of D. glomerata were evaluated. Four replicates of one-hundred seeds per population were tested for germination in the dark under eight single temperature regimes between 5 and 40°C with 5°C. Maximum germination (%), apparent initial time of germination and germination rates were estimated.

The novelty of this work comes from the wide range of temperatures evaluated (5 to 40°C). Striking results show that no germination at all was observed at 40°C for any of the 23 populations under study. However, it was observed that, within each species, the response of populations to temperature shows high variability and statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Optimal temperature for germination ranged from less than 10°C to 26°C. Further, it was observed a differential sensitivity to our extreme treatments (5 and 35°C).

Overall, these results demonstrate that genetic variability does exist within the three studied grass species for response to temperature during germination. This should prompt i) physiologist to extend to other processes the analyses of response to temperature, and ii) plant breeders to collect and analyse populations of grasses from sites with extreme environmental conditions. We suggest that seed germination of populations from sestentrional and cold sites is enhanced by high temperatures and limited by colder temperatures and vice versa for warm-adapted populations from the south. The variability discovered in this study should serve breeders to create grass varieties for the future.

P-2217-10

## Land Degradation and Resource Based Economy - A Case Study in Indian Sunderbans

T. Ghosh (1) ; S. Saha (1)

(1) Jadavpur University, School of Oceanographic Studies, Kolkata, India

The Indian part of Sunderbans is highly vulnerable due to climate change impacts like sea level rise, erosion, salinization of soil and water, cyclones, etc. This study is an attempt to identify the drivers impacting the traditional resource based economy and consequent adaptation. Kultali (21051/N, 88030/E to 21056/N, 88034/D, an administrative area (Block) in the district of South 24 Parganas) within Indian Sunderbans on the Bay of Bengal is a very backward area in terms of poverty ratio and vulnerability index (Human Development Report, Govt. of India, 2009). The villages namely Bhubaneswari, Maipur, Binodpur, Baikunthapur, Kishorimohanpur and Bhubaneswari Char under the Kultali Block are under study, situated between the confluence of River Matla and River Thakuram. This area is highly vulnerable due to their close proximity to the Bay of Bengal, frequent cyclones, coastal flooding and subsequent land inundation every year. The inhabitants solely depend on the traditional primary activities depending on natural resources to make their sustenance. In agriculture, mono-cropping is the only way of livelihood for the population, with high level of exposure to climate change and natural hazards. Inland fishing is another practice on subsistence basis, while the more vulnerable section depends on offshore fishing. Increasing sedimentation has resulted from sea level rise and frequent inundation, negatively affects the fertility of soil, yield of crops and fish catch, which in turn affect the local economy. The situation has become worsen after cyclone 'Aila' on 25th may 2009, when extreme level of inundation left behind saline water stagnation for a considerable time causing deposition of salt layer on the productive topsoil, leaving the land unproductive for longer time. Consequently, change in land-use pattern as well as change in occupational structure has observed. Minimal effort to switch over to salt tolerant variety of paddy and other variants of vegetables and fruits traditionally grown are found insufficient. Hence, the workforce in the community finds agriculture as a 'loss business' and lacking any other alternate skill they intend to migrate as a