also in the contents of their everyday stories, which often involve hunting, fishing, and encounters with animals (especially bears). While the links between language, culture and environment may not be obvious to outsiders, they are deeply embedded in the daily life of Northern indigenous peoples (L.Grenoble).

Government policies in the sphere of national relations in the context of Sida (Yakutia) place particular importance upon questions of vitality of small indigenous peoples' languages and cultures. The indigenous peoples of Yakutia, living in the inhospitable climate of the North, create unique modes of life and have interesting and instructive histories, traditions, and original cultures.

Globalization and the pressure of mass culture endanger not only their languages but their traditional ways of life.

The researches of North-East Federal University of Yakutsk has been conducting psycholinguistic research on linguistic identities and indigenous world views of the peoples of the North, living on the territory of Yakutia. In this context linguistic research plays a vital role in the efforts to preserve and maintain the language of Yakut (Yakuts, Evens, Evenki, Yukagirs) since language not only communicates, but also encodes essential aspects of cultures and fix their uniqueness for preserve and translate to the next generations.

# 2239 - Co-production of knowledge: How to interact to produce climate adaptation research, between scientific communities and stakeholders, at local or international, also between North and South countries?

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2239-01

#### Unpacking the co-production of knowledge in adaptation to climate change

S. Dessai (1); S. Beck (2); J. Porter (1); J. Van Der Sluijs (3)
(1) University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; (2) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany; (3) University of Bergen, Centre for the study of the sciences and the humanities (svt), Bergen, Norway

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been instrumental in raising political awareness of climate change at the global level, whilst the knowledge produced by the IPCC and other high level scientific programmes is seen as relevant it's not always "usable" for decision-making at the local and regional level where adaptation to climate change is crucial. Despite advances in climate science and adaptation policy, critical understandings of which approaches can most effectively harness science and technology for long-term sustainable adaptation is still lacking. "Usability" of science cannot be taken for granted. In order to fill the gap between the supply of scientific findings and its demand at different levels of decision-making, co-production has become a key concept guiding major international research initiatives. "Co-production" has a myriad of meanings, some practical-organizational oriented others social-philosophical. This talk aims to unpack how, why, and to what extent, the concept of co-production can inform scholarly debates and practical exercises on adaptation to an uncertain future climate. The talk is informed by a recent international workshop on the topic and empirical work conducted in the United Kingdom on the construction and use of climate change projections in long-term adaptation decision-making.

### K-2239-02

#### Climate change adaptation: towards a new geography of knowledge

C. Buffet (1) ; S. Huq (2)
(1) Centre Alexandre Koyré (EHESS/CNRS), Paris, France; (2) International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Facing critics and distrusts towards a "Northern Science" accused to mainly follow Northern interests (Lahsen, 2004), IPCC strove to better include Southern Scientists in report production (Dahan, 2008). However, as noted in its fifth report (WGII), there remains a North-South inequality in research production and access, in spite of a raising involvement of Southern Scientists. This discrepancy is both rooted in research funding and limits of capacity (Burkett, et al., 2014).

The issue is thus particularly sharp for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), who are both the less responsible, the most affected and the less in capacity to forecast and

respond to the impacts of climate change.

In parallel, this perspective led to a progressive construction of Southern capacities, both within UNFCCC (LDC expert group), Ministries (focal point to implement NAPAs) and among civil society (academics, think tanks, NGOs). Beyond the focus on technological transfers and impact model regionalisation, the emergence of "bottom-up" approaches since 15 years, in particular «Community-based adaptation», deeply changed adaptation framing: this approach involves humanities and social sciences, jointly with the population and authorities actually living the models and striving to adapt.

Through examples from Bangladesh, one of the "hot spots" of adaptation, this talk aims at underlining the current development of Southern capacities that contribute to a "new geography of knowledge".

### O-2239-01

#### Developing robust adaptation strategies: the importance of embodied knowledge, local knowledge and place attachment

R. Lidskog (1); P. Castro (2)
(1) Örebro University, Environmental sociology section, Örebro, Sweden; (2) ISCTE-IUL, social psychology, Lisbon, Portugal

This presentation focuses on the importance of including local knowledge in developing strategies for climate change adaptation. The background for this focus is that the current intertwining of, and reliance on, legal-institutional and scientific expertise in environmental policy-making often leaves little room for inputs from actors on local levels, although these many times possess detailed and relevant knowledge. Regarding climate change adaptation, research in both rural and coastal areas has recently shown how meaning and identity bonds to places (expressed in place memories, norms, narratives, identities and motives) indeed matter for adaptation. Whereas a number of studies have been conducted around place (mainly in terms of place identity, sense of place and place attachment) one thread seems however to be conspicuously missing: that of place knowledge proper. A reason for this maybe the epistemic division of labor in our societies where local knowledge is re-defined as a subjective and cultural construct, contrasting it with the "real", objective and universal knowledge provided by scientific expertise. At the same time there is an increased recognition both in science and society that environmental problems require elements of local knowledge for their solution; contextually generated knowledge about local circumstances and local practices are relevant because global risks always have local and place-specific implications. Local knowledge is bond to place through its relation to living; people live in specific places and gain embodied knowledge (not least in the form of routines and habits) about how things are and work in their local surroundings.

This kind of relations to place developed and supported through knowledge and their implications for addressing climate change adaptation are discussed by using findings
from two different studies in rural areas: i) a focus group study of farmers (N=50) conducted in Natura 2000 areas of importance for climate change adaptation; ii) a study of professional expertise (N=20) that try to persuade forest owners to consider climate change in their forest practices and a study of forest owners (N=15) in forest areas that are prognosticated to be heavily affected by climate change. Through these empirical studies, it is possible to gain knowledge both on how professional expertise try to approach lay actors on local level and on how farmers and forest owners acknowledge their situation as well as evaluate and handle knowledge claims for changed action provided by expertise. The analysis finds a number of strategies through which farmers and forest owners evaluate and negotiate expert claims, resulting in partial approximation and partial rejection of claims. By reclaiming their local knowledge, accentuating how this knowledge binds them to particular places and expressing their embodied and (em)placemed knowledge, they re-signify and re-contextualise the original expert advice.

A central finding of this study is that it is not knowledge as a product or property, but as practice that matters when addressing issues of local adaptation to a changed climate. The reason for this is that knowledge is not distributed and transferred in a mechanical way, but is instead actively appropriated and thereby also transformed. In this dynamic process, different kinds of epistemic bonds are central. Thus, by focussing on knowledge practices – how knowledge is developed and appropriated in different institutional and spatial settings – the knowers and his/her knowing are put at the centre, and these practices constitute an important condition for developing adaptive strategies and measures to be implemented locally.

## O-2239-02

# Blending local and scientific knowledge to support innovative action by community-based institutions to adapt to global change

R. Reid (1)

(1) Colorado State University, Dept. of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Fort Collins, United States of America

Today, scientists, government officials, community members and non-profits work together to blend different knowledge and apply this joint understanding to real world problems concerning global change in local social-ecological systems around the world. This transdisciplinary work often starts with explorations of different ways of knowing and what constitutes 'truth' in the cultures of research, practice and those of other stakeholders. Teams of 'boundary spanners' often lead this work and attempt to not only reach across disciplinary boundaries in academia, but the many institutional, jurisdictional, political and other boundaries that occur in practice when working in social-ecological systems.

At the community level, innovative institutions are arising to improve the sustainability of local systems, sometimes strengthened by the decentralization and devolution of power in different settings globally. These institutions are often led by local community members collaborating with diverse stakeholders at different scales. This is creating a revolution in the ability of local actors to respond to global and climate change in local land-, lake- and sea-scapes.

Here, I describe some principles and examples of the models that different transdisciplinary teams are using around the world to bring together diverse knowledges and create innovative solutions to global change problems. These include different practical methods linked to workshops to understand research questions and methods, practitioner or landowner-led research projects, integrated practitioner-researcher field teams, 'what does it mean' workshops to interpret data, and co-production of knowledge products. I then review several models for integrating different knowledge sources and co-producing knowledge, based on case studies. I will conclude with a description of future directions for co-production and the potential for co-produced knowledge to be a catalyst for social change when working on global change issues.

## O-2239-03

# Building Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Policy: The Chilean Experience in Co-producing knowledge for acting

P. Calfucoy (1)

(1) MAPS Programme, MAPS Chile, Santiago, Chile

Chile, as part of its climate change policy, assumed in 2010 the challenge of generating evidence nationwide to project long-term scenarios and options for mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), in order to support its position in the international negotiations on issues of climate change and simultaneously, evaluate alternatives that contribute to a low carbon development for the country.

This effort, was materialized in MAPS - Chile, a project of South-South cooperation with South Africa, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, in which a process of scientific research was integrated with multi stakeholder participation to estimate both the emissions of the country and to evaluate mitigation actions and scenarios that might contribute to a low carbon development path.

MAPS Chile integrated a logic of co-production of knowledge with the participation of national scientist, policy makers and experts from the academia, the public sector and NGO's under the coordination and policy guidance of the United Nations. This project was successful, giving its results were used to define the Contribution proposal to be presented at COP 21.

From the perspective of sociology of science and technology, the analysis of this experience seeks to deepen in the understanding of mechanisms and methodologies for the formulation of policies on climate change in developing countries. Centered on the concept of Co-production (Passel, 2010), the analysis focuses on the governance structure of the project, the strategic decisions, and the methodology that articulated the interaction between institutions and individuals who participated, to finally identify the main strengths and weaknesses to inform climate change policy in developing countries.

The methodological approach for the study was qualitative. I apply content analysis using secondary data together with discourse analysis from semi-structured interviews that allowed knowing the perceptions and opinions of the participants in the project.

Among the main results of the study, I highlight:

i) The valuation of the participants of the process of opening the black box of modeling. The co-production of knowledge was understood as the exercise of defining between the scientist and the stakeholders the main assumptions, evaluating in conjunction the quality and availability information and making explicit the scope and limitations of the methodologies used. This, according to interviews, allowed a better understanding for non-experts of the constraints and opportunities for sectorial and macroeconomic modeling. Additionally, this process provided credibility and validity to the results, while recognizing the levels of uncertainty intrinsic to this type of research. The methodology generated procedural legitimacy to the results. The agreements throughout the participation process about the key parameters that will be used in the modeling process, facilitate the recognition of the results. The project successfully validate their interim decisions and to rest the legitimacy and validity of their results in their agreements.

ii) The valuation of the participants regarding integrating local knowledge: The process of building the results with the participation of local researchers and experts contributed to a better understanding of the micro dynamics of the sectors, a better understanding of the country's productive structure for estimating emissions and the technological and feasibility constraints. In particular, the discussion about the penetration rates of potential mitigation actions are valued as an exercise done by the incumbent people and not imposed by external actors, outside the country's reality.

iii) The valuation of strengthening decision-making in the public sphere by enriching the understanding of the causes of the problems, their dynamics and implications. The exercise of co-production facilitated the socialization
of complex results because of the opportunity of learning gradually in the process. It includes the «opportunity to learn from the dynamics of other sectors», «the opportunity to visualize areas of complementarity with other colleagues and topics» «The opportunity to learn from methodological tools».

O-2239-04

## Strengthening the science-policy interface for climate change adaptation at the regional level

H. Dannevig (1)

(1) Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal, Norway

Despite a vast amount of scientific knowledge, society is unable to properly address the pressing issues of adapting to climate change. Planned adaptation, or adaptation planning, is its policy issue which owns its existence to climate science and it is comprehensible only through abstract scientific models. Adaptation planning therefore involves translations of these, as well as assessments of risk and uncertainty, and in order to support these processes, various institutional arrangements for the strengthening of the science-policy interface have been developed (Hoppe & Wesselink 2014). The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is itself an example of this. While there has been widely recognized that the planned adaptation to climate change is a multi-level governance issue (Keskitalo 2010), research on adaptation governance has tended to focus either on the local or the national governance levels; while regional adaptation governance have seen limited attention (Hanssen et al. 2013). The local level of government on the other hand has been deemed a key actor in the governance of adaptation. In the case of Norway, as in most western industrialized countries, there is a strong belief that the local level of governance has the key role in this respect. But despite large efforts from national government agencies and the research community in supplying local government with tailor-made and downscaled climate change projections and comprehensive guidelines, climate change adaptation is still lacking. As a response to the mixed success with municipal adaptation integration, there has been called for stronger involvement of the national level (Amundsen et al. 2010), stronger coordination between levels and across sectors (Hanssen et al. 2013) and a strengthening of the knowledge provision through various boundary arrangements that links experts and knowledge users for the purpose of production of knowledge for policy-making (Corfee-Morlot et al. 2011). This paper contributes to existing research on climate change governance by examining how regional government in Norway has interpreted its role in coordinating climate change adaptation in spatial planning policy networks. Drawing on concepts from research on boundary work, it critically assesses how regional government in Western Norway configured boundary arrangements between scientific and policy communities. This is addressed through an analytical focus on the nature and extent of boundary work, i.e. the translation, mediation and communication (Cash et al. 2003), that regional government actors engage in through their application of policy coordination instruments. Empirically, the research involves a review of on-going spatial planning processes in six municipalities from four counties in Western Norway. The study concludes that even though adaptation is not treated as a salient issue in most municipalities, the regional adaptation governance coordination is creating a hybrid management space that aid mediation between the local users knowledge and expert adaptation knowledge, and thus hold the potential for better local level adaptation planning.

Amundsen, H., Berglund, F. & Westskog, H., 2010. Overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation—a question of multilevel governance? Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 28(2), pp.276-289.

Cash, D.W. et al., 2003. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100(14), pp.8086-91.

Corfee-Morlot, J. et al., 2011. Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy. Climatic Change, 104(1), pp.169-197.

Hanssen, G.S., Mydske, P.K. & Dahle, E., 2013. Multi-level coordination of climate change adaptation: by national

hierarchical steering or by regional network governance? Local Environment, 18(8), pp.869-887.

Hoppe, R. & Wesselink, A., 2014. Comparing the role of boundary organizations in the governance of climate change in three EU member states. Environmental Science & Policy, 44, pp.73-85.

Keskitalo, E.C.H., 2010. Developing Adaptation Policy and Practice in Europe: Multi-level Governance of Climate Change E. C. H. Keskitalo, ed., Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.

## 2239-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2239-01

## Current adaptation practices: case studies in France, Portugal and Greece

A. Baills (1) ; A. Lilleba (2) ; T. Parama (3) ; C. Parrod (4) ; S. Luis (5) ; A. Stepanian (6) ; G. Le Cozannet (7)

(1) BRGM, ORLEANS, France; (2) University of Aivoe, Department of biology & cesam, Aivoe, Portugal; (3) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, Laboratory of physical geography, Athens, Greece; (4) Actone, Colmar, France; (5) ISCTE-Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Libon, Portugal; (6) BRGM, Marseille, France; (7) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France

The warming of the climate system is now unequivocal and a strong warming of sea temperature as well as an acceleration of sea-level rise is projected in the Mediterranean regions of Europe (IPCC, 2013). At the same time, adaptation measures are being set up to cope with the impacts of those changes on both the environment and the society. To which extent do these adaptation policies actually meet the challenge posed by future climate change? To answer this question, a detailed understanding of the current practices of adaptation is needed, as well as a comprehensive view of how this adaptation is perceived by its main actors. However, such information is lacking at present. Therefore, a literature review has been combined with 47 semi-structured interviews conducted on three coastal sites in France, Portugal and Greece, which different approaches toward risk prevention and adaptation to climate change in the region. In order to identify gaps between the theoretical framework and the practical situation at local scale; the interviewees have been asked with their general knowledge of climate change (present and future changes) and on the existing and desirable adaptation policies / measures.

The interviews and the literature review underline similarities and differences in the countries approaches, organization and awareness. France, Portugal and Greece have different level of national policies development regarding climate adaptation and climate change awareness can be influenced by local in situ situations. But even when climate change and climate adaptation are subjects of concern, a lack of concrete "local" implementation is pointed out by stakeholders, as very few adaptation measures have been implemented yet. Indeed, climate adaptation is recognized as a traversal issue by the interviewees. Hence, related policies have to fit within already developed and complex sectorial legal frameworks related to water management, risk prevention, health, environment and so forth.

Literature review and stakeholders interviews both highlight the time scale issues related to difference between climate change and a political mandate's time horizons. They also stress a gap between science and non-scientific local stakeholders for expected knowledge and actions, and this gap tends to be reinforced by the complexity of the legal framework for climate adaptation. This complexity is particularly pointed out by interviewees acting at regional and local scales in France, which is the country where adaptation to climate change has been the most considered in various regional sectorial policies.

To overcome these specific barriers to adaptation, the interviewees suggested that one first step could be the creation of interest groups at regional level, gathering all concerned actors and a complementary lead could be to adopt laws at the national level to incite local authorities to act together with regional actors. The next step would then be to design adaptation measures and to assess their
P-2239-02

## Vulnerability as Transformation: Photo-voice Adaptation in the Philippines

Y. Cai (1)

(1) University of the Philippines, Diliman, Women and Development Studies, Quezon City, Philippines

In this participatory action research (PAR), the author rethinks the role of vulnerability in the framework of transformative adaptation through the application of Photovoice in three disadvantaged urban communities in the Philippines. Few planning scholars and practitioners have developed systematic adaptation models and tools to address climate-related risks and vulnerability from the local perspective. This research explores disaster risks and capacities for adaptation through the lens of a marginalized population and emphasizes vulnerability as the transformational factor for innovative adaptation. The Philippines has faced frequent and devastating typhoons and raging floods, especially in the past few years, which have killed thousands and destroyed millions of homes and businesses. Climate risks as well as adaptive capacities of vulnerable populations, such as women, have been overlooked or even distorted. During a one-year period, this research project provides disadvantaged community members with digital cameras (through smart phones) and fundamental training, facilitates them to cultivate narratives and social media networks, and encourages communities to develop action mechanisms for disaster preparedness, mitigation, and recovery. Through an empowering Photovoice approach, it reveals climate risks and capacity building of a disadvantaged population in metropolitan Manila and Cebu City. Disadvantaged participants facing frequent climate hazards embody resilience via flexible and entrepreneurial strategies. It demonstrates the missing perspective of the current creative adaptation framework: vulnerability can transform creative and collaborative adaptability.

P-2239-03

## Evaluating the Resilience of Traditional and Non-Traditional Family Farming Systems in Mountain Areas of Peru

E. Chavez (1); G. Quartieri (2); O. Madalengoitia, (3); E. Michaud (1)

(1) National University of San Marcos, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, OIKOS Association, Lima, Peru; (2) IUSR http://www.unisitua.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy; (3) OIKOS, LIMA, Peru

The mountain agricultural systems of Peru could help to improve the resilience facing the climate change. These systems, mostly of them kept in familiar farming milieu provides ecosystem services (like water conservation) and with a low carbon impact, have potential to improve mountain resilience, conserve the biodiversity, and improve the food security. The presentation is focused on comparing the hydro-management, food security and energy consumption of two types of production systems. One based in the use of petrol derivate and «modern» techniques and another base perspective of the current use with the use of traditional knowledge.

The central Andean region (covering Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia), is one of the world's centers of origin and domestication of animals and plants. In this region the domestication processes innovated the use of traditional and particular agricultural system by means of techniques, experiences and improvement processes.

These systems are part of our bio-cultural history that has been created by people in thousands of years as a result of the interaction of Andean people and its diverse environments. These systems, mostly of them kept in familiar farming milieu, have an enormous potential to improve mountain resilience, conserve the biodiversity, and improve the food security in these key local. However there are many drivers included the climate change and wrong federal management) that jeopardize the continuity of this farming systems.

Given that 79.3% of agricultural units in Peru are family farms, this presentation will analyze water management practices amongst traditional family farmers and compare these with the practices of modern settlements to analyze whether and how they improve resilience to water scarcity. Likewise, the research will compare strategies for achieving food security and identify potential drivers of food security risk resulting from climate change. Energy consumption between these two groups will also be compared, based on the assumption that traditional farming systems do not employ petroleum derivate products as an agricultural input, instead using traditional knowledge and its techniques, practices and production processes.

P-2239-04

## Lessons from local adaptation governance experiments in Quebec (Canada)

G. Cloutier (1) ; J. Glowacki (2)

(1) Université Laval, École supérieure d'aménagement du territoire et de développement régional, Québec, Québec, Canada; (2) Université Laval, Québec, QC, France

Adapting local areas to climate change is a wicked problem for local policy makers, as it involves a continuous struggle between the collaborative efforts of multiple stakeholders, the changing of mindsets, the lack of resources and the difficulty in deciding between alternative planning scenarios. Even if the percentage of local governments involved in one way or another in adaptation planning is high, most initiatives never leave the drawing board. This can be attributed to the recent emergence of this concern. As well, the research conducted and the tools developed so far by researchers have little application that could help practitioners with their analysis of interactions between the various climatic impacts and their practices.

Also, decision makers involve, more than ever before, a variety of stakeholders in the decision-making process, following, in that sense, the collaborative planning prescriptions: citizen panels, public hearings, audits, charrettes, etc. contribute to reinforce public participation in local governance. These participation possibilities support, in return, the legitimacy, validity and sustainability of decisions taken. Despite this, development targets and public policies are not always consistent with local contexts and local initiatives. Gaps between theoretical objectives and daily life contribute to the shifting of climate governance outside of the institutional frame of action. This is true not only for climate change: the whole urban political space is moving outside of the traditional frame of action.

The discussion and reflection on how to act and adapt the local space to climate change take place on different grounds and through new modes of collaboration, which will be examined through the analysis of the presented case studies. In developing countries and in cities of the developed world, non-governmental organizations, regional governments or other development-based associations draw from and modify existing modes of governance in order to carry out climate governance experiments. Such experiments take form independently from national and international programs, they cross scales and jurisdictional boundaries and their goal is to contribute to the local community response to climate change. These efforts take inspiration from existing governance patterns and improved and They offer local actors a possibility to coordinate and harmonize between different types of interventions, preoccupations and available resources without depending on public policies and intervention.

Local adaptation experiments are a way to explore original and innovative practices. Although experimentation has been shown to be a significant contributor to the augmentation of adaptive capacity at various scales, little research has been carried out on the analysis of current practices and what they can teach us about the mainstreaming of this process. This presentation will analyze two local adaptation experiments in Québec, Canada, which seek to adapt to increasing flood risk and the urban heat island effect.

How do such experiments take place? What data, expertise and financial resources are mobilized? What kind of institutional, organizational and economical contexts give way to these experiments? Based on preliminary results, this communication analyses the context and implementation of the two local adaptation experiments:
1) a local flood zone Committee; 2) an urban greening initiative. Content analysis, participant observation, a press review and site analysis, are used to highlight the experiment characteristics and to understand how experimenting contributes to enduring adaptation of local systems.

P-2239-05

## Towards an International Sustainability Center Bretagne-Loire An international knowledge arena for global partnership and potential links to "Future Earth"

B. Grambow (1); E. Lorant (2); Y. Lagadeau (2)

(1) Mines Nantes, Université Nantes, CNRS-IN2P3, SUBATECH, Nantes, France; (2) Université Rennes I, Rennes, France

Oriентing research and educational programs to tackle society's major challenges, the new French federal university Bretagne Loire (UBL) is proposing to create the first International Sustainability Center, ISC in France as a highly visible cornerstone of its transdisciplinary IXDEX initiative UBL+, focused on ocean/land/food/health/ society. It is our belief that the proposed approach could very well be related to the "Future Earth" program in co- design & co-production of scientific knowledge on global sustainability.

UBL represents a very large territory of the size of Ireland with 27380 people working in research, 225000 students in higher education, and five laboratories of excellence in transdisciplinary focus areas (Ocean, Immunology, Nuclear Medicine, ICT and Mathematics), hosting 3 OSU and 4 Zones atelier, smart specialization fields in the area of sustainable agriculture, ocean and renewable energy. Acknowledging the limitations of current disciplinary oriented research and education systems to address global environmental change or global sustainability, UBL aims with the I dex proposition to forge a new type of university, establishing a solution oriented knowledge arena, of which ISC is a central part, increasing impact of leading edge research, cross scale system observation, learning, demonstration and exchange, accounting for the interrelationship between world oceans, global environmental change and climate, and environmental (soil, water, air), agricultural, urban, health and societal changes in our global regions. The goal is to foster participative and international exchange between scientists, students and civil society, providing for scientific excellence in transdisciplinary studies of very complex global long-term systems, developing new pedagogical methods for transdisciplinary and international culture. Groundbreaking transdisciplinary science includes the need of opening up scientific disciplines to other ones (including numeric and social sciences), to other systems of thinking, and for dialogue with stakeholders for joint problem framing, research definition and a plurality of interests on issues in sustainable development.

Inspired by and in collaboration with the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS) of Arizona State University, the ICS shall become a Center for international meetings, exchange, research and education, focused on the land-sea continuum, the transition to a sustainable urban planet, the question of food sustainability and health, digital transition and culture etc., assuring effective linkage between social challenges, transdisciplinary focus areas and territorial development.

The buildup of the ISC will start from partnerships already in existence and propose new international partnerships (ASU, the University of Colorado, Anglia Ruskin University, and French Guiana, University of California, U Laval etc.). The "Future Earth" program provides an appropriate frame for fully integrating the global mission in the ISC orientations, with contributions by civil society, including NGO, ("co-production of knowledge") to the research process (participative investigations) concerning issues that have a major impact on society (e.g. integrated management of a coastal zone or water).

A typical example for the importance of "Future Earth" program is already in discussion between UBL and ASU/ GIOS: the question is how to transition to a future that will be driven by the dynamics of urbanization. The InCas and other mechanisms will be critical for building the international network and developing the critical questions to develop the world's best program in urban sustainability within Future Earth. Another "demonstration project" could be an observatory (without walls) able to assess long term trends in local and large scale ocean, land distribution pattern of toxic, radiotoxic and nutrition elements and its spatial and temporal variation at local and regional scales including water, soil, plants, trees, animal and human contamination indicators in urban, agricultural, littoral and mining environments, considering biodiversity and food chain sustainability.

P-2239-06

## From Household Coping to Community Based Adaptation: individual, communal and institutional responses to climate change by low-income households in Khulna, Bangladesh

AN. Haque (1)

(1) University of Cambridge, Geography, Cambridge, United Kingdom

The relationship between "coping" and "resilience" increasingly features in academic, policy and practical discussions on adaptation to climate change in urban areas. This study examines this relationship in the context of households in "extreme poverty" in the city of Khulna, Bangladesh, on a quantitative data set based on 550 household interviews in low-income and informal settlements that identified the extent of the underlying drivers of vulnerability in this setting, including very low income, inadequate shelter, poor nutritional status and limited physical assets. A series of focus groups were used to explore the ways in which physical hazards have interacted with this underlying vulnerability, as a means to understand the potential impacts of climate change on this particular group of urban residents. These outcomes include frequent water-logging, the destruction of houses and disruption to the provision of basic services. The main focus of the paper is on describing the practices of low-income urban residents in responding to climate- related shocks and stresses, placing these in a particular political context, and drawing lessons for urban policies in Bangladesh and elsewhere. A wide range of specific adaptation-related activities can be identified, which can be grouped into three main categories - individual, communal and institutional. The study examines the extent to which institutional actions are merely "coping" - or whether they create the conditions in which individuals and households can strengthen their own long-term resilience. Similarly, it examines the extent to which individual and communal responses are merely "coping" - or whether they have the potential to generate broader political change that strengthens the position of marginalized groups in the city.

The vulnerability of individuals, communities and cities to climate variability and change is an outcome of the interaction between an external threat or hazard and the internal characteristics of a system. For residents of low- income and informal settlements in urban areas in the global South, these internal characteristics which may include limited income, few assets and poor provision of basic services are particularly important in shaping the consequences of climate-related hazards. Similarly, effectively responding to climate change requires not only addressing the direct outcomes of particular events but also more generally building the resilience of marginalized and vulnerable groups. This study examines these underlying drivers of vulnerability as they affect extremely low-income residents of the city of Khulna, Bangladesh - and the individual and large scale oceanic and land responses to these. The analysis contributes to an understanding of the dynamics of climate change impacts and responses in rapidly growing urban centres in Bangladesh, and to the relationship between urbanization, poverty and climate risk throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America. More specifically, however, it examines the potential for actions taken at the household and community level in urban areas to go beyond offering short-term "coping" solutions in response to specific events, resulting instead in more translational changes that address the underlying
Exploring the preconditions for transfor-
mative change in the context of climate
impacts and adaptation

G. Hovelsrud (1)

(1) University of Nordland, Faculty of social sciences, Bodø, Norway

While climate change is projected to substantially influence primary industries in the northern regions climate change is not perceived to be an immediate concern when compared to outmigration, jobs, and the social and economic viability of municipalities (Hovelsrud et al. 2010). This relates to the apparent disconnect between the abundance of scientific knowledge about climate change, the overwhelming evidence to such changes are caused by human action and the general societal response and political commitment to deal with the challenges (Hulme 2009, Jasanoff 2010; Szerszynski and Urry 2010). And mainstream political science and governance theories fail to explain why people and institutions do not act on climate change (O'Riordan & Jordan 1999).

In this presentation we draw on a broad range of
adaptation studies; a useful starting point for studying
preconditions for transformative processes. One of our
findings inspiring this study is that the perceptions of
high resilience towards climate risks are expressed in the
narrative «vi står han av» - «we always handle hardship",
reflecting deep seated perceptions of resilience, linked to
high variability in resources, climate and socio-economic
conditions. This phenomenon has by others been
attributed to different understandings and interpretations
of reality between groups of people or individuals. If
climate change is not perceived sufficiently salient to
warrant action, resilience may decrease and societal
transformation may not be possible. It is a major challenge
that the climate change message and the need for societal
change do not resonate well with many parts of society,
combined with the findings that adaptation is not likely
to take place without stronger policy measures (Dannevig
et al. 2013, Tøssøe 2012). / Szerszynski & B. adaptation
is taking place and has been associated with extreme events,
observations of change, engaged officials and contact with
researchers, which is reflected in the finding that society
needs to better understand how climate change will affect
them directly (Dannevig et al. 2013). How climate change
knowledge is co-produced by science and policy we argue
will be filtered through current perceptions and values,
influencing their potential for transformative responses.

Perceptions of risks and the need to act on the basis of scientific knowledge hinge on whether scientific knowledge is viewed as salient, credible and legitimate (Cash et al. 2003) and on the individuals' risk perception, norms, values, culture and livelihood (O'Brien & Wolf. 2010, O'Riordan & Jordan 1999). The presentation will investigate the interplay between the local and national levels in providing salience to the climate change issue. We surmise that perceptions of risk have a bearing on the observed inertia in society to respond to the overwhelming evidence of climate risks. We analyze this inertia by applying the cultural theory of risks (CTR) to our empirical findings.

Cash, D. W., Clark, W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N. M., Eckley, N., Guston, D. H. & Mitchell, R. B. 2003. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14), 8086-8091. / Hovelsrud, Grete K., Dannevig, H., West, J., and Amundsen, H. 2010. Adaptation in Fisheries and Municipalities: Three Communities in Northern Norway. In G. K. Hovelsrud & B. Smit (Eds.), Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Arctic Regions SE. / Springer Netherlands. / Humle, M. 2009. Why We Disagree About Climate Change. Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. / Jasanoff, S. 2010. A New Climate for Society. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), 233-253. / O'Riordan, T., and Jordan, A. 1999. Institutions, climate change and cultural theory: towards a common analytical framework. Global Environmental Change, 9(2), 81-93. / O'Brien, K.L. and J. Wolf, 2010. A values-based approach to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(2), 232-242. / Szerszynski & B. and Urry, J. 2010. Changing Climates: Introduction. Theory, Culture &

Society, 27(2-3), pp.1-8. / Tøssøe, SE 2012. Uncertainties and insufficiencies: making sense of climate adaptation. Doctoral thesis. Departement of Interdisciplinary Studies of Culture, Faculty of Humanities, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim

Processes for self-determined transfor-
mative adaptation: The learning journeys
of small scale farmers in the arid west of
South Africa

B. Koelle (1) ; N. Oettle (2)

(1) Indigo development and change, Nieuwoudville,
South Africa; (2) Environmental Monitoring Group, Rural
Programme, Nieuwoudville, South Africa

A group of small-scale rooibos tea farmers embarked on a transformative adaptation journey more than 15 years ago by defining their community vision. This community is situated in the Northern Cape Province in South Africa and is severely affected by climate variability and change.

Today significant changes can be seen on an individual and
communal level. This paper explores the aspects of the
learning journey, using the results of qualitative interviews
that have been conducted in the course of the past 15
years with various community members. Three key areas
are examined: drivers of transformative processes on the
personal and communal level, the role of experimental
learning in transformative adaptation processes, and ways
of facilitating transformative adaptation processes.

At the start of the learning journey the Suid Bokkevold
community was socially and politically disenfranchised
and economically marginalised. A participatory process
facilitated by two local NGOs supported locally driven
action research processes, the establishment and
organisational development of a local trading co-operative
owned by the farmers themselves. Embedded in these
processes were opportunities for personal transformative
learning specifically focusing on women within the Suid
Bokkevold community.

The paper explores enabling factors for communal and transformative adaptation in local communities, including sharing knowledge and insights with other communities, stimulating personal development and learning, supporting action research processes to develop adaptation strategies drawing on different types of knowledge (scientific and local knowledge alike). Participatory and experiential learning processes have been a key component and included participatory monitoring of livestock exposure to extreme heat stress, monitoring of water resources on farm level and local level weather monitoring. These processes carefully balance the impact of possible responses to climate extremes in order to plan ahead and be prepared for these possible shocks.

Using the transformative journey of the Suid Bokkevold
as an example, approaches and tools for facilitating
transformative learning are discussed. These approaches
include facilitation of the articulation of a collective vision
for effective adaptation, the communication of climate
information on the local level ownership of learning
processes by vulnerable communities and ways of
facilitating reflective learning processes for transformative
adaptation.

Model Forests and Open Collaborative
Science: empowering stakeholders to
adopt transformative adaptation practices

J. Lorenzo (1)

(1) CATIE – Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher
Education Centre, Turrijalba, Cartago, France

This presentation is related to an ongoing project which
is being implemented in two Model Forests of Latin
America (in Costa Rica and Colombia). Model Forests
are social initiatives which aim at improving governance
and the sustainable management of natural resources
within forest-rich territories (www.bosquesmodel.net).
Through an Open Collaborative Science (OCS) approach,
the project pursues several objectives, including fostering
participation and "citizen science" as well as improving
adaptive capacity of local communities within the Model Forest territories by opening up the research process related to climate change.

The contribution presented will describe the context of the study and approach being taken within the specific project and how it can potentially help to tie knowledge to local problem-solving by increasing stakeholders' participation in different aspects of the research lifecycle, through establishing a more interactive relationship between citizens and the academia. It is based on the belief that research and education need to be adapted to new realities, and has a strong capacity-building and knowledge-sharing component. It is also based on the premise that adaptation should be holistic, taking into account all aspects of life.

This work is part of the recently launched Open & Collaborative Science in Development Network (OCSDNet) research project, supported by Canada's International Development Research Centre and the UK Government's Department for International Development (www.ocsdnet.org).

## P-2239-10

# Addressing the research evidence needs for evidence-informed city resilience planning: Insights from Shimla city, India

J. Patra (1)

(1) Shimla Municipal Corporation, Climate Change Resilience, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India

Cities, the engines of economic growth and centres of innovation, are at greater risk of climate-induced changes. In a rapidly urbanizing India, key urban functionalities and infrastructure facilities are highly exposed to climate-related hazards and extremes. Two recent natural hazards in India, the Kashmir Floods (September 2014) and the Cyclone Hudhud (October, 2014) have highlighted how urban centres are witnessing a new regime of disaster and climate risk. Urban development is one of the key priorities of India's government and the new initiative of 100 Smart Cities is a step in that direction. Climate resilient urban development strategies are the core of this initiative. But one of the key challenges that policy makers, city authorities, planners and investors face is with regard to availability to robust, reliable and relevant climate risk information at the city level. Although city level climate risk assessments are being undertaken by many scientific and research organizations, most of these information hasn't been able to address the needs of city authorities and planners. How do we address these gaps in evidence-informed city resilience planning in a developing country context? Based on a systematic analysis of research evidence needs of city-level stakeholders in the capital city of Shimla in the climate-sensitive Indian Himalayas, including city authorities, this paper highlights a series of barriers, individual and institutional, that result in such gaps. It also underscores some of the emerging opportunities through which the science and research communities could better understand and address the information needs of the policy makers and urban practitioners. More importantly, it demonstrates how such a city-level institutional system could open up new windows of opportunity to mobilise partnerships and resources for city resilience planning and implementation.

## P-2239-11

# Our common future, our common Global. Assessing Sustainability of local production systems: A proposal based on socio-ecological resilience and collaboration

RA. Seiler (1); MB. Wehbe (2); A. Vianco, (3); A. Mendoza (3); A. Baronio (3); A. Tonolli (4)

(1) Agrometerestate, Agriculture, Rio Cuarto, Argentina; (2) Economic Science, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina;

(3) Economic Sciences, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; (4) Agricultural engineering, Engineering, Mendoza, Argentina

Sustainability and resilience are key conditions for reaching a balanced functioning of socio-ecological systems, facing internal conditions and external shocks like those expected from climate change. However, there is no agreement on how to get a good measure for both concepts to allow for

managing local production systems. As a result of a two-year research methodology for assessing sustainability was developed based on a collaborative process between science, policy and civil society to improve resilience, and therefore sustainability of local production systems according to the internal conditions to the system and the impacts of climate change and other global environmental changes as well.

The presented work is a joint contribution from an interdisciplinary research group from seven universities in the Centre-West of Argentina, and summarizes the analytical and methodological procedure to assess sustainability, based on the concept of resilience of socio-ecological systems. The four dimensions of the sustainability (ecological, economic, social and institutional) and their relationships are organized in a matrix. On one side, the Aggregate Demands from each dimension to the other dimensions, and on the other, it shows the actual contributions to Human Wellbeing. Within the matrix, a number of components (e.g. water, soil, air, and biodiversity, for the ecological dimension) need to be defined according to pre-established criteria for each of the dimensions. These components, expressed through one or more indicators (e.g. for "water" indicators of quality, the number of components, the need to be related to the rest of components in the Matrix aiming at identifying synergies and trade-offs.

The components in the Matrix are not fixed but they depend on the characteristics of the production system or of the region under analysis. The Principal Diagonal of the Matrix tells on the state of the system or the baseline for each dimension through the components under the same dimension. It is the best estimate of the Matrix establishes relationships among dimensions and their components. As a way of exemplification, it is possible to think about the demand of a production system in terms of the availability of particular natural resources to develop the production process. The existence and specificities of natural resources spatially distributed determine not only the characteristics of an ecosystem but also the potential of the production system to develop, as well as the limits to such a development. The same methodology applies for all the relationships among dimensions.

The value of the methodology and its sensitivity rests in an exhaustive knowledge of the productive systems under analysis and of its functioning. As a matter of fact, scientific interdisciplinary groups, citizens, firms, NGOs, and the government are required to participate in collaboration and to bridge the differences in order to establish proper relationships between dimensions, the components of the systems and the variables/indicators for accurately assessing each of the components.

Finally, the sustainability indicator to be constructed is a relative measure to its potential value and indicates the current position of the system in terms of its desired state. The inter-temporal and regular application of the methodology will determine an accurate evaluation of a system's dynamic towards sustainability.

## P-2239-12

# Climate Change Research and Communication: Exploring potential connections

DL. Taina (1)

(1) State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

In face of the delicate moment in which we live through the effects of climatic alterations and the intensification of extreme phenomena, the circulation of information about climatic changes is becoming increasingly important. How can we think about the communication of climatic changes as a potent and effective movement to provoke broader reflections on the subject? In our research group at the State University of Campinas, in Brazil, we participate in the scientific research of climate change, as well as study communication proper, combining to create an important field for reflection and the assembly of knowledge in connection with different areas, such as natural sciences, political science, sociology, philosophy, arts and multimedia. Confronting the complexity that is involved in the subject of climate change, we look to construct interdisciplinary researches and creations, in which we focusing important questions and concepts that cross climate change approaches.
Every day we are droned by the excess of information and news of climatic catastrophes, scenes that show places devastated by natural disasters, such as dried up rivers, water shortages in cities and the melting of polar ice caps. These images and information create narratives and stories about the potential end of the world. And often, these stories possess sterilizing effects by creating the sensation that nothing can be done because the scale of the problem has already become so big to the point that we don't know what actions to take and therefore become paralyzed. In this context we look to think critically about the quality of the information that is being produced about climate change, seeking to think of communications that create other possible narratives and stories to stimulate other types of thinking related to the environment, to the climate and life. We believe as the author Donna Haraway suggested, with her challenge to live "with the problem" of climate change and create "other possibilities" in the face of these sterilizing stories. We shouldn't think that there's no way out, but rather we should create multiple ways out, developing other trains of thought and more collective actions to deal with the climate changes already in motion.

It's with this intuition that in our research we seek to create other means, together with communication, telling

new stories and establishing connections with different ways of knowledge. We believe in the interaction between art, communication and science as a powerful possibility to disseminate new scientific findings in a different approached. In this sense, we developed productions that seek to provoke distinct experiences with climate change communication creations like videos, reports, art installations, and workshops. We are developing a video collective creation workshop named TransClimatic VideoNarratives that we will work aesthetic and videos concepts to create new stories with the public. How do people understand and interact with the climate and nature? How can we establish relationships with water and heat, and how can we establish connections with the climatic elements and feelings that they can generate? Therefore, we aim to study possibilities of generating knowledge from sensory experiences in order to enfold climate change subjects through different approaches, seeking to contribute for the dissemination of knowledge and promote public participations. Our studies integrate the activities of the sub-group Scientific Communication and Climate Change from the Brazilian Network on Global Climate Change Research (Rede CLIMA).

# 2240 - Perceptions of climate change

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-2240-01

#### International Perceptions of Climate Change Over the Past 25 Years: A Review

**W. Poortinga (1) ; S. Capstick, (2) ; L. Whitmarsh (3) ; N. Pidgeon (2) ; P. Upham, (4)**

(1) Cardiff University, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff, United Kingdom; (2) Cardiff University, School of psychology, Cardiff, United Kingdom; (3) Cardiff University, School of Psychology, Cardiff, United Kingdom; (4) University of Leeds, School of earth & environment, Leeds, United Kingdom

The ways in which individuals, societies, and politics respond to climate change are in many cases contingent on public perceptions of its causes, consequences, and wider implications. Understanding popular opinion on climate change is therefore critically important to enable a social transformation to a low-carbon economy. Public perceptions of climate change are known to differ between nations and have fluctuated over time. Several explanations have been put forward for these variations. With over two decades of research on public perceptions of climate change, we are now in a position to take stock of the key trends over this time period and the factors behind the changes. In this contribution we will present the findings from a systematic literature review of studies that have used longitudinal methods to examine changes in and drivers of public opinion on climate change. In this review we consider early, seminal work on public perceptions of climate change from the 1980s onwards, and national and international surveys with a longitudinal component. Studies point to growing scepticism in the latter 2000s in a limited number of developed countries. However, most parts of the world have seen growing concern about climate change in same time periods. We conclude that the imbalance in the literature toward polling data, and toward studies of public perceptions in Western nations (particularly the United States), leaves much unknown about the progression of public understanding of climate change worldwide. Furthermore, more research is required that uses inferential statistical procedures to understand the reasons behind trends in public perceptions. (Session 2240 – Perception of climate change).

### O-2240-02

#### Public perceptions of weather and climate change in the United Kingdom

**W. Bruine De Bruin (1) ; AL. Taylor (1) ; S. Dessai (2) ; C. Lefevre (3)**

(1) Leeds University Business School, Centre for Decision Research, Leeds, United Kingdom; (2) University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; (3) Northumbria University, School of psychology, NewCastle, United Kingdom

## BACKGROUND.

Public perception surveys in the US have suggested that Americans' concerns about climate change are related to their experiences of very hot weather. Such findings raise questions about the climate change beliefs of people in regions with moderate climates, including the United Kingdom (UK). Indeed, our work has suggested that UK residents may actually feel good about the prospect of warmer summers (e.g. Lefevre et al., 2015; see also Palitnikof et al., 2004). Such findings raise the question of whether other types of locally experienced weather may be associated with concerns about climate change, among residents of those countries. Indeed, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be associated with perceived changes in other weather-related events, such as heavy rainfall. We therefore examined (1) the extent to which UK residents perceive different types of weather and related events to have changed in frequency over the lifetimes; and (2) the relationship between perceived changes in the frequency of these events and climate change belief.

## METHOD.

We report on an initial UK-wide survey that was conducted January/February of 2013, with longitudinal follow-up surveys occurring in October 2013, April 2014, and July 2014. These surveys contained items asking participants about the extent to which they perceived nine types of weather-related event to have increased or decreased in frequency over their lifetime (including heatwaves and heavy rainfall, among others). Participants also rated their concerns about climate change, using a reliable 3-item assessment.

## RESULTS.

Our analyses showed that participants tended to perceive wet-weather and water related events (heavy rainfall, flooding, coastal erosion) to have increased in frequency over their lifetime, while hot summers and heatwaves were perceived to have decreased over their lifetime. Moreover, controlling for the effects of demographic variables and environmental values, we found that perceived increases in wet-weather were significantly associated with greater climate change concerns, with perceived change in the frequency of hot-weather making a comparatively small contribution. These findings held in the initial survey as well as the longitudinal follow-up surveys that were held as the weather changed across seasons.

## CONCLUSIONS.

We found that amongst UK residents, perceptions of wet weather and related events are more strongly associated with beliefs about climate change than perceptions of hot weather. These findings suggest that those seeking to communicate about climate change with audiences in regions with temperate climates should not limit their focus to heat-related impacts, but also emphasize other types of locally salient weather.
# Analysis of factors shaping small-scale farmers' perceptions about climate change in South Africa: A behavioral approach

P. Hitayezu (1); E. Wale (1); G. Ortmann, (1)

(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of Agricultural, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Raising public awareness of the real threat posed by CC has been a common pledge in many countries¹². Response policies. In many cases, however, tendencies by policymakers to overlook the differences in public opinions have resulted in policy inertia, passive resistance, and even active opposition. Therefore, effective CC communication requires a good understanding of public opinions and a recognition of individual variation in learning processes. In South Africa, for example, recent empirical studies have shown that small-scale farmers hardly recognize the patterns of local climatic changes. The studies, however, have simplistically argued that the misperceptions could be due to the complexity of biophysical processes that can be hardly discerned by farmers. They have often overlooked the importance of socio-psychological, institutional and cultural processes underlying individual perceptual formation.

Based on key insights of the behavioural decision research, this study investigated the affective, experiential, cognitive and cultural factors shaping the perceptions about climate change among small-scale farmers in the midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal, a major hotspot of climate change in South Africa. A principal component analysis of perceptions about climate change revealed two contrasting perceptual shapes. Whilst meteorological records indicated that the area has experienced drying trends in summer coupled with warming and wetting trends in winter over the last four decades, CCP1 score revealed inaccurately perceived trends of pooling and drying winters and warming and drying summers. CCP2 score exhibited stark similarity with meteorological observations.

Using a Double-Hurdle estimation strategy, the results of the Probit model suggested that climate change perception is triggered by emotive factors (holistic affect) and value judgement, as well as socio-demographic factors such as gender, education and agro-ecological conditions. In line with the conceptual expectations from the behavioural approach, the results of the Truncated regression model showed that the CCP1 score increases with holistic affect and inherently experimental socio-demographic factors such as, age, and distance to the rivers, whilst the CCP2 score is determined by cognitive and socio-cultural factors, including knowledge, education, extension, and trust.

Based on these findings, the study concludes with some recommendations for effective regional CC communication strategies that recognize individual variation in learning processes.

# Mental models of climate change: Basis for risk evaluation, policy support, and message reception

G. Böhm (1) ; A. Bostrom (2)

(1) Psychology, Bergen, Norway; (2) Policy, Seattle, United States of America

Human behavior plays a central role in climate change risks. In addition to precipitating rapid global warming by burning fossil fuels, humans can also act to prevent, ameliorate or adapt to climate change and its consequences. It is therefore important to understand how people perceive climate change, its impacts, and the opportunities for and effects of human actions. Mental models are an essential part of risk perception; they shape subjective risk evaluations, policy preferences, and the reception of risk communications.

We present 3 studies in which we pursued three aims: (a) describe lay causal mental models of climate change risks, (b) relate mental models to risk judgments and policy preferences, (c) draw conclusions concerning the communication of climate change risks.

Study 1 (N=133) employs a cognitive mapping technique to elicit people's mental models. Participants also evaluated a set of climate change risks on several psychometric risk scales. Results show that mental models are structured according to a causal chain that ranges from attitudes via behaviors, pollution, and environmental impacts to impacts on humans. These components differ systematically in perceived risk and perceived controllability. Network analysis reveals that lay models tend to be simple and unconnected.

Study 2, an experiment with USA MTurk participants (N=892) suggests that even when controlling for causal beliefs, mindsets can have a significant effect on support for mitigative policies, but perceptions of the costs of action have a much larger deterrent effect on support. Study participants were assigned randomly to experimental conditions, two of which were designed to promote concrete, specific thinking, two to promote abstract, goal-oriented thinking. Participants in an abstract mindset were significantly more likely to support increasing taxes on fossil fuels. But the effect is much smaller than the association with perceived social and personal costs. Causal beliefs—such as that increasing taxes on fossil fuels will effectively slow or stop climate change—remain positively associated with support for such taxes, whereas political ideology drops out as a predictor of policy support, once mindset and other factors are taken into account.

Study 3, a cross-national survey, demonstrates the important role of risk perceptions and causal beliefs in the formation of policy preferences of economics and business undergraduates from six countries: Austria, Bangladesh, Finland, Germany, Norway, and USA (total N = 664). Five constructed causes were introduced, perceived causes, perceived consequences, perceived effectiveness of a set of policy actions, and support for the same set of policy actions. Regression analyses with policy support as criterion and the other factors as predictors show that policy support can be predicted by risk perceptions and causal mental models. In all analyses, adding perceived causes and perceived effectiveness as predictors adds significant explained variance. Perceived effectiveness is generally a stronger predictor than ascribed causes.

Taken together, the studies show that mental models shape both people's evaluation of climate change risk and their support for specific policy options. Causal beliefs seem more important that political ideology, but perceived costs may have deterrent effects. One implication of the results is that all communities should relate to people's mental models that promote an abstract, goal-oriented mindset strengthens policy support. Furthermore, communicating the effectiveness of policy actions may influence support for these actions more than providing other causal knowledge. Future research should address the exact mediating roles of mindset, perceived risk, causal beliefs, and perceived policy effectiveness in shaping policy support and the processing of communications.

# Believing, Belonging and Behaving: Exploiting Mismatch between Climate Change Perceptions and Individual Mitigation Behaviours across 27 European Countries

R. Muttarak (1)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, World Population Program, Laxenburg, Austria

Individual behaviour is key to CO2 emission reduction. Despite increased awareness of climate change, climate-related beliefs however do not always translate into actions. This study aims to explain the mismatch between beliefs and behaviours by investigating the role of individual socio-demographic, meso and macro level factors across countries and over time. The study employs a novel 3Bs framework—believing, belonging, behaving—originally developed to analyse religiosity in sociology to identify underlying drivers of climate-related actions at micro, meso and supra levels. According to the 3Bs framework, individual socio-demographic characteristics influence internal attributes e.g., values, knowledge and climate risk perceptions (Believing), which can trigger behavioural responses (Behaving). Similarly, external factors e.g., the institutional and cultural conditions of a social group, community and country where people belong (Belonging) mediate attitudes and behaviours. The empirical analysis
is based on the Eurobarometer surveys for the years 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2013 (Modules 69.2, 72.1, 75.4 and 80.2, respectively) covering over 100,000 respondents in 27 member countries of the European Union. Preliminary results show that women and the highly educated express greater concern about climate change and are more likely to undertake personal actions to mitigate climate change. The public concern about climate change however has decline, especially in the period after the 2008 financial crisis. There is substantial geographic variation for both perceptions towards climate change and climate-related actions, and, importantly, for the extent of the mismatch between attitudes and actions. For instance, residents in countries like Austria, Spain, and Slovenia have both a relatively high concern about climate change and a high proportion of individuals undertaking mitigation actions. On the other hand, a group of many new EU member countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland display both relatively low level of concern about climate change and low level of mitigation actions. Likewise, the same proportion of individuals from Luxembourg and Bulgaria (73.0%) perceived climate change as a very serious problem but only 30.8% of residents in the latter perform mitigation actions as compared to as many as 79.1% of the former. Understanding what barriers prevent individuals from some countries to take actions despite their climate change concern is therefore crucial for policy interventions.

## 2240-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2240-01

#### Climate Change Perception and Adaptation Strategies In Osun State

R. Adeyemo (1)

(1) obafemi Awolowo University, Agricultural Economics, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The impact of a changing climate are already being felt in Sub Saharan Africa with more droughts, more floods on the coastlines of West Africa, more strong storms and more heat waves taxing individuals firms and governments, drawing resources away from developments. Continuing climate change at current rates will pose increasingly severe challenges for developments. Since over 90% of agriculture in Sub Saharan Africa is rain fed and water supplied are expected to decrease and to become more erratic in most regions, local water management such as micro-catchments, dams and tanks and small irrigation from underground water will be key opportunities for adaptation. Malaria is spreading to higher previously safe altitudes and becoming resistant to drugs.

The objectives of this research are to: determine farmers perception to climate change, based on farmers field experiences, explore innovative adaptation approaches needed in this kind of African environment and examine tested traditional knowledge useful for adaptation at the local setting

The study is based on four local government areas in Osun State. The areas comprise the food basket areas of the State. Structured questionnaires was developed to generate primary data which are complimented with secondary data. The data collected are subjected to descriptive and statistical analysis.

It is on record that agricultural productivity has declined in all the zones in Nigeria including the areas of study. The region economies are highly dependent on natural resources. This research will be able to indicate strategies for climate change adaptation in agriculture, what lessons have been identified and new innovative approaches that can be applied to similar areas in Sub Saharan Africa.

### P-2240-02

#### Heterogeneity of climate change perceptions in two Caboclos' communities of the Amazon Estuary, Brazil

V. Zeidemann (1); O. Almeida (2); S. Rivero, (1); CM. Alvez-Valle, (3); N. Moreira, (4)

(1) Federal University of Pará, Economic Graduation Program, Belém, Pará, Brazil; (2) Federal University of Pará, NAEA,

Belem PA, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Ecology, Juiz de Fora, Belém, Brazil; (4) Federal Institute of Pará, Fishing resources, Belém, Brazil

There is a general consensus that peoples and societies perceptions are a necessary prerequisite for adaptation and responses to climate change (Maddison 2006, Brain et al. 2009, Capstick et al. 2015). However, climate change impacts, and consequently perceptions, are unevenly distributed with regions and even local. Disparities (Tambo and Abdoulaye 2013). For example, scholars suggest that farmers that have more experience are more likely to perceive climate changes (Maddison 2007, Silvestri et al. 2012). In addition, household characteristics, such as household head's gender, age, level of education, and access on information about climate change, have also been identified has important factors affecting perceptions of climate change (Deressa et al. 2009). Since adaptation to climate change comprises a two-step process, the ability to perceive changes, and subsequently, to respond to those changes, the understanding of the heterogeneity related to perceptions of climate change among individuals and societies is very important when fostering adaptation to climate change.

Our study aims to explore (1) how caboclos communities' residents in two islands of the Amazon Estuary, Brazil, perceived climate changes (2) how those perceptions varied among respondents and communities, and (3) what factors influenced perception heterogeneity to climate change. The caboclos communities studied have their livelihoods based mainly on acái berries collection, fishing activities, and shrimp harvest. Therefore, we explore how those communities perceived climate change impacts, specifically temperature, rainfall and tide level changes, on those three activities, and what factors determine perceptions variation regarding the climate change impacts on those activities.

To collect data on how caboclos communities perceived climate change on temperature, rainfall and tide level, and their impacts on acái berries collection, fishing, and shrimp harvest, we applied structured interviews to 239 residents of Aramandu and Sao João Batista communities, in the municipality of Abaetetuba, Pará state. Besides climate change perception questions, we also gathered information on gender, age, level of education, time of residence at the community, property size, and filiation to fishers association and workers unions. We also applied focus group discussions to further understand residents' perceptions.

Preliminary results showed that perception to climate change varied according climate change type (temperature, rainfall, and tide level changes) and also on the type of economic activity being impacted by those changes. Gender and affiliation to fishers association and worker unions seems to influence perceptions regarding rainfall and tide level changes, but not on temperature changes. Further analyses will be performed to refine those preliminaries results, and also to determine if residents age, level of education, time of residence, and property size affect their perception regarding climate changes occurring in the last 20 years, and on the impact of those changes on fishing, acái berries harvest and shrimp harvest activities.

Knowledge on how caboclos communities perceive climate changes and their impacts, but also the factors that affect the way those communities perceive changes and impacts, are extremely important to assist policy aiming to foster adaptation and also decrease vulnerability of those communities to future climate changes.

### P-2240-03

#### Has self-interest of climate scientist influenced their perceptions of global environmental change? A Rebuttal to climate change contrarians' allegation against climate scientists

HJ. Bak (1)

(1) Kyung Hee University, Center for Science, Technology & Society, Seoul, Republic of Korea

GEC is still controversial in the public in many countries, although scientists almost reached a consensus over the causes and results of it. One of the reasons is the attack against climate science and IPCC by climate change contrarians. They have claimed that mainstream
climate scientists, influenced by their interest of research fund and liberal political ideology, have exaggerated the seriousness of GEC for political purposes and made uncertain claim of anthropogenic global warming. Social scientists, historians, and environmental NGOs have counter-attacked these contrarians indirectly by debunking the influence of their own conservative ideological orientation, conservative think tanks, and the fossil fuel industry on their activity. However, little effort has been made to examine the validity of the contrarians' claim with empirical evidence: whether or not climate scientists' warning on GEC has been influenced by their own professional ideology and interests. Among many reasons, there is a serious methodological challenge to answer this question: it is difficult to know whether the high level of concern about GEC among climate scientists has resulted from their expertise (as most scientists claim) or their interests (as contrarians claim).

This study attempts to test the validity of the contrarians' allegation by taking an innovative way to separate potential influence of expertise from interests on climate scientists' concern about GEC. To use Collins and Evans (2002, 2007)¹ terms, this study classified a sample of Korean scientists (n=365) into three groups, 1) contributory experts who conduct climate research, 2) interactional experts who do not conduct climate research but have much knowledge on it, and 3) scientists-in-general who do not have much knowledge on climate change, and compared their perceptions/presentations of global climate change. In this way, this study attempts to distinguish the influence of expertise (contributory and interactional experts vs. scientists in general) and the influence of interests controlling for expertise (contributory experts vs. interactional experts). Using this classification of expertise, this study hypothesizes that, if scientists' interests of research fund have effect on their perceptions/presentations of GEC, contributory experts having such interests may perceive/pre sent GEC as a more serious problem than may other scientists who do not have such interests. In particular, if the contrarians' allegation is valid, there should be a significant difference in the perceptions/presentations of GEC between contributory experts and interactional experts who have a high level of expertise in GEC but do not have professional interests in climate research such as research funding.

The results of this study demonstrates that there has been little difference in the perceptions/presentations of GEC among contributory experts, interactional experts, and scientists in general. The same was the case even when covariates such as gender, age, income, and political ideology were controlled for. The results therefore strongly suggest that the allegation against mainstream climate scientists made by contrarians was hard to find ground and that we should take climate scientists' warning against GEC more seriously. Perhaps, climate science has been politicized too much.

## P-2240-04

### The green of your eyes: Social judgments of different types of pro-environmental behaviours

R. Bertoldo, (1); P. Castro (2)

(1) ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; (2) ISCTE-IUL, social psychology, Lisbon, Portugal

There is today an international consensus on the fact that our society have to alter the way they interact with the environment (IPCC, 2013). Today, environmental claims are part of our daily lives to the point that they integrate different types of environmentally significant behaviours (Stern, 1999): activist, non-activist and private sphere behaviours. A previous study has shown that pro-environmental behaviours can be associated with the perception of both competence and warmth - i.e., people that present them are seen as more competent and warm than those who present them - i.e., it is not tested whether if these pro-environmental behaviours were activist ones, clearly questioning the current state of affairs, they would still be regarded as competent and warm. Therefore, this study had the objective of comparing different types of environmentally significant behaviours in terms of their attribution of competence and warmth. To do so, we presented participants with a target that presented either an activist behaviours (demonstration, a non-activist behaviour from the public sphere (signing a petition), or a private sphere behaviour (purchase of organic products,

recycling and saving water and energy). Then participants were asked to form an impression of the target and attribute to it adjectives from the competence and warmth dimensions. Results show that targets presenting any type of environmentally significant behaviour equally are seen as competent. Where targets are differentiated in their perceived warmth: activist behaviours are seen as less warm than the others. These results confirm the distinction between perceived agency and communality. Given that all targets behave and demonstrate agency towards the environment, they are all seen as equally competent. But the activist target, which demonstrates intentions to change the current state of affairs, is seen as less cooperative and communal than the targets presenting pro-environmental behaviours form the private sphere. Implications of these results for the environmental social change are discussed.

## P-2240-05

### Exploring the Concerns of Emerging Climate Sceptic Groups Within Civil Society

M. Bliss (1)

(1) The REAL Institute, EDON, France

Exploring the concerns of emerging climate sceptic groups within civil society - a growing proportion of society are using the information age to research the past, observe the present and are subsequently becoming organised to protect the future, reflecting a perception of man's influence on climate change - whether intentional or unintentional.

## P-2240-06

### How do perceptions of climate change affect performance of risk management instruments & farmer welfare in Malawi?

R. Cavatassi (1) ; A. Cattaneo (2) ; J. Graff-Zivin, (3) ; N. McCarthy, (4) ; L. Lipper, (5)

(1) Food and Agriculture Organization, Agricultural development Economics, Rome, Italy; (2) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), (3) UC San Diego, Economics, San Diego, United States of America; (4) LEAD Analytics, Washington, DC, United States of America; (5) FAO of the UN, Agricultural development economics division, Rome, Italy

This paper provides new insights on how climate change affects Malawian farm households' risk management options. The options considered in our farm-level stochastic simulation model are (i) the adoption of risk-smoothing farm practices, (ii) diversification among crops, (iii) safety nets, and (iv) other public interventions such as improving extension and providing better climate information. A traditional risk management approach typically assumes that probabilities are known by all actors. However, climate change can affect the probability and severity of yield losses in ways that are difficult for individual farmers to incorporate in their decision-making.

Simulations are run solving a stochastic farm model where a farmer chooses a staple crop and technique (conservation or traditional) plus up to one diversification crop to maximize utility within a given Malawian Agro-ecological zone (AEZ). The staple crops to choose from are local maize or hybrid maize, whereas the diversification crops are Groundnut Chalimbana, Groundnut CG7, Beans, & Pigeon Peas. Conservation techniques that the farmer can choose are soil & water conservation, intercropping, or combining the two.

In the results presented here we focus on how improving climate information available to farmers changes the expected outcomes. We refer to a misalignment in expectations when farmers have insufficient information to evaluate the change in systemic risk brought about by climate change and behave as if this distribution had not changed. From the results in Table 1, we observe that (i) mean profits can be greatly affected by lack of information under increased variability of rainfall in sub-humid areas, and (ii) an increased variability of temperature in semi-arid areas can have a considerable negative effect if not anticipated.
<table><caption>Table 1. Impact on mean profits of increasing by 30% the standard deviation of rainfall (Rain SD) or of temperature (Temp SD), depending on whether the change in variability is correctly anticipated by the farmer or not (unanticipated).</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Malawi<br>AEZs</th><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="2">Mean Profits (Malawian<br>Kwachas)</th></tr><tr><th>Anticipated<br>climate<br>change</th><th>Unanticipated<br>climate<br>change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="3">Tropic<br>warm/<br>semi-arid</td><td>Baseline</td><td>5,578</td><td>5,578</td></tr><tr><td>Rain SD +<br>30%</td><td>2,430</td><td>2,102</td></tr><tr><td>Temp SD +<br>30%</td><td>6,056</td><td>4,901</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Tropic<br>warm/<br>sub-humid</td><td>Baseline</td><td>5,859</td><td>5,859</td></tr><tr><td>Rain SD +<br>30%</td><td>7,950</td><td>2,244</td></tr><tr><td>Temp SD +<br>30%</td><td>3,627</td><td>3,627</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Tropic cool<br>/semiarid &<br>subhumid</td><td>Baseline</td><td>10,719</td><td>10,719</td></tr><tr><td>Rain SD +<br>30%</td><td>4,980</td><td>4,729</td></tr><tr><td>Temp SD +<br>30%</td><td>7,944</td><td>9,877</td></tr></tbody></table>

In our analysis, improving information available to farmers addresses this misalignment by providing the correct probability distribution to farmers managing risk. The paper then provides insight on the robustness of different instruments, such as diversification or safety nets in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of weather events, and the value of providing information in the efficiency of such instruments. Budgetary implications are also explored for different instruments such as weather index insurance and safety nets. Results indicate that misalignment of farmer expectations may cause large budgetary outlays by government due to a lack of appropriate adaptation decisions when only limited information is available to farmers.

## P-2240-07

### "Visions of the future" from selected scenarios: Science warnings, the changing of scarcity concept and prospects for a new society

R. Corazza (1); PS. Fracalanza, (2); E. Ortega, (3); MJ. Bacic, (2)

(1) Geosciences Institute / State University of Campinas - IG/ UNICAMP, Science and Technological Policies, Campinas, SP, Brazil; (2) Institute of Economics, Campinas, SP, Brazil;

(3) Food Engineering Faculty, Ecological engineering and applied informatics laboratory, Campinas, Brazil

Most of conventional, non-scientific or specialized media nowadays focus on the problems of financial-economic international crisis and on worldwide terrorism actions. Challenges to curb Climate Change and the other major planetary environmental problems appear in the main information vehicles as specific topics, frequently disconnected to these other urgent and fair issues of economic possibilities of the world and the global safety under the menaces of the growing forces of fundamentalism and intolerance.

Yet, these planetary challenges are deeply imbedded in our social, economic and geopolitical world. Facing the first ones will require profound and extensive reorientation of the latter. There will be no possible escape from a dystopic future for the great majority unless this fundamental interdependence are recognized and proper, creative faced by world leaders, jointly with citizens, businesspersons, and society as a whole.

The scientific literature on the future prospects of the world in this sense spreads from late 1960s to the

present and brings together a set of issues that can be enlightening when it comes to devise possible paths to alternative socio-economic and political arrangements to face current predicaments of humankind.

This paper draws on the results of a critic literature review on the topic of the visions of future, highlighting the contributions of the reviewed works on three selected and interrelated issues: Science warnings, the underlying scarcity concept (being information stated or not) and the prospects of the future of the society (whether it be utopian or dystopian).

The Table 1, below, summarize the contributions reviewed, its authors and the disciplinary scientific field, and institutional and historical contexts within which they have been proposed. The main, even if not the unique, criteria for selecting these works were the adherence to the theme and the prominence of them in the literature reviewed. The sources employed as bases for the survey were SciELO, Periódicos CAPES and Scholar Google for the systematic review and selected books and papers for backward and forward chaining review.

<table><caption>Table 1. Visions of the Future: contributions and reviewed authors</caption><thead><tr><th>Contribution</th><th>Date</th><th>Authors</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Environment, Power and Society</td><td>1971</td><td>Howard Odum</td></tr><tr><td>The Limits to Growth</td><td>1972</td><td>Donella and Dennis Meadows and colleagues</td></tr><tr><td>Beyond the Limits</td><td>1992</td><td>Idem</td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophe or New Society: a Latinamerican World Model</td><td>1976</td><td>O. Herrera and colleagues</td></tr><tr><td>Great Transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead</td><td>2002</td><td>Raskin, P., T. Banuri, T.; Gallopin, G.; Gutman, P.; Hammond, A.; Kates, R. and Swart, R.</td></tr><tr><td>IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 4th Assessment Report</td><td>2007</td><td>R. K. Pachauri; A. Reisinger</td></tr><tr><td>Ecosystems And Human Well-Being</td><td>2005</td><td>Millenium Ecosystems Assessment</td></tr></tbody></table>

The main purpose of this paper is to draw from the reviewing of these selected contributions a set of answers for the following questions: i) which are the scientific warnings made in terms of environmental change?; ii) which is the underlying concept of scarcity?; iii) which are the ideas or the prospects for the reorganization of social and economic life?; iv) which roles are social and economic actors supposed to play in order to implement this reorganization?

## P-2240-08

### Does poor understanding of causes for climate change lead to bad protective choices?

G. Guedes (1); A. Simao (2); R. Raad (3); G. Assunção (4)

(1) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil; (2)

Federal University of Minas Gerais, Center for development and regional planning, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of economics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of statistics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

In this paper we analyze how people's perception of causes for climate change, and their understanding of global warming, may be associated with their behavior regarding flood preparedness. We also analyze if their social representation of floods is affected by how they
receive causes for temperature and precipitation locally. Microeconomic models of optimal choice under uncertainty (as in Savage, 1972) are our theoretical basis to link perceived uncertainty regarding local climate parameters with behavioral intention regarding preparedness against flood hazards. Models of choice under uncertainty state that individuals choose a subjective prior to make sense of the expected benefit of their choice. Among risk-averse individuals, increase in uncertainty may lead to overprotective behavior, which results in an aggregate loss of social well-being. Poor understanding or lack of knowledge about causes of increasing uncertainty, such as the one brought about with climate change, may lead to the choice of incorrect subjective priors, adding an extra loss in expected benefits. Combining mathematical simulations with Thematic Net Analysis applied to a representative sample of 1,200 urban households in Governor Valadas, Brazil, 2014, we show that individuals seem to overuse protective measures against flood hazards, resulting in an aggregate social loss. This loss is even higher among risk-averse individuals. Our qualitative results suggest that, as expected, knowledge on local temperature and precipitation change is more common than the understanding of global warming. Among those who acknowledge local climate change, understanding of causes is superficial and often wrong, adding a layer of difficulty for risk-averse individuals to onto their portfolio of electable actions. Governor Valadas was chosen because river floods is recurrent in the area, reaching thousands of families along the river every other year. The river water is also one of the most polluted among the Brazilian rivers', producing involuntary risk exposure to waterborne diseases when it floods. The results found in this study highlight the importance of proper scientific communication of causes of climate change and the general public, in order to increase population support for adaptation policies, as well adherence to protective and preventive behavior.

P-2240-09

Perceptions of climate change in the mainstream media as portrayed through the coverage of the water crisis in São Paulo

(R) Henriques Melo-Santos (1); C. Nolasco (2); M. Lahsen, (3)

(1) INPE - National Institute For Space Research, Earth System Science, São José dos Campos - SP, Brazil; (2) INPE - Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, CCST - Earth System Science Centre, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (3) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre (ccst), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

For many decades, drought has been a very cruel and close reality to millions living in the Northeast region of Brazil. By contrast, for those in the Southern regions of the country, water scarcity has rarely been a matter of concern and it was associated only with remote, socio- economically deprived regions. That reality changed in 2014 when the megacity of São Paulo, home to 12 million people, suffered a serious water crisis. The magnitude of the water crisis and the speed in which it occurred took by surprise and it is referred to as the most severe in decades. Its consequences unfolded throughout the region like an epidemic and turned into front page news. Among the causes of the water crisis listed by the media, was irresponsible management of water resources, excessive water use by the population and an extreme environmental situation. Scientists have been warning that intense drought and lack of rainfall throughout Brazil are a result of climate change (Gutiérrez et al., 2014), and that further warming and reduction in precipitation is projected for the southeast of Brazil for the coming decades (Chou et al., 2014). The present study examines the representations of climate change in the mainstream media, as portrayed through the coverage of the water crisis in São Paulo. It also examines the importance given to scientific data on its reports. It seeks to understand how the most influential outlet press, the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, explains the causes of the water crisis, in particular the extent to which it covered governance and climate change. Attention is given to whether the management and mitigation of the water crisis addressed in the news, took into consideration knowledge and data produced by the scientific community. A sample of reports, published during the period of August 2014 to March 2015 in the newspaper Folha de São Paulo,

were classified by section and type, and thus, identifying whether the newspaper relates the crisis to climate change or to governance issues or both, and whether the newspaper content is based on scientific or non-scientific information. Understanding how issues are framed in this and other national news media is important because they shape public knowledge, customs and perceptions of the Brazilian society.

P-2240-10

Navigating the line between participation and tyranny - Lessons learned in using participatory methods to engage community members in pro-environmental behaviours in rural China: The Case of Farm in a Box

(K. Kennedy (1); S. Evans, (2)

(1) Lund University, Social Work, Lund, Sweden; (2) Good to China, Shanghai, China

Discussions and responses to climate change have predominantly remained at the global and national levels with limited inclusion of people who live in regions that are heavily impacted by and vulnerable to climate change. The implications of climate change at the local level and the possible positive impact of locally driven climate change actions are consistently overlooked within the international community of climate change experts. It is necessary to not only include, but to also work closely with local communities in the discussion of climate change, sustainable development and resilience building as local communities provide a source of local knowledge rooted in cultural traditions as well as a source of community level action. However, navigating between participatory methods and tyranny is an issue that has received attention within participatory research and community engagement literature. Focusing on the case study of Farm in a Box, a sustainable food source that promotes pro- environmental behaviours and education opportunities, we will examine the lessons learned in the process of using participatory methods to engage community members in pro-environmental behaviours in rural China.

P-2240-11

Learning about climate-related risks: decisions of fish farmers in a role-playing simulation game

P. Lebel (1); L. Lebel (1)

(1) Chiang Mai University, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Background: Successful river-based cage aquaculture in Northern Thailand depends on managing a number of climate-related risks. Previous surveys and observation of recent high flow or flood events as well as an extreme seasonal drought with low flows have shown that the risks are season-, river- and place-specific implying that the experience and risk profiles of individual farms vary substantially. Earlier work also showed that farmers use a combination of adjustments to rearing practices, cropping calendars, as well as financial, and social measures to manage those risks which they perceive as being manageable. Moreover, individual risks are often addressed through multiple practices and strategies; conversely, a particular management practice can have a bearing on several different risks. Farmers also recognize that risks must be managed at both farm and higher spatial and administrative scales. Social, economic and information, and not just culture techniques, play critical roles in managing these complex combinations of risks.

**Purpose:** The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of how farmers make investment decisions in their fish farms when faced with risks from floods that are imperfectly known and which may be changing.

**Methods:** A role-playing simulation game was created to capture some of the key features of the decision-making context and explored with farmers in the field on hand-held tablets. In the game farmers were given a choice between low, mid or high stocking densities, representing a wide range of levels of investment in each round or crop. Under normal conditions profits are higher the higher the stocking density, but if it profits losses are correspondingly higher. Selecting a low stocking density thus was a relatively
certain bet compared to choosing a high stocking density. Games consisted of 20 rounds. Each game was randomly assigned to one of 18 different treatments or conditions that included different likelihoods and impacts of floods, investments in adaptation measures, or provision of information. In-depth interviews were conducted post-game to reflect on strategies used in the game and in practice.

Results: As hypothesized more frequent or larger impact floods reduced cumulative profits. Farmers reduced their stocking densities when playing in games with high likelihood of floods but did not do so as expected when impacts were larger. Farmers found it's harder to learn choose the most optimal density or improve score within a game - when floods were common or had large impacts. Farmers learned most when risks were decreasing and least when they were increasing. Providing information about likelihoods prior to a game had no significant impact on performance or decisions, eventthough interviews implied a reasonable understanding of likelihood information. Within individual games farmers responded to a flood with a reduction in density in the next crop if they had just chosen high, but with a shift to high if they had previously chosen low. Post-game interviews suggest most farmers found the simulation game represented key features of their decision context, the main discrepancy being inability to take short-term measures to reduce losses when a flood was imminent.

Significance: The methods and findings of this study underline the importance of understanding decision-making behavior around risks for climate risk management. The novel combination of experimental, role-playing and qualitative methods revealed limitations in common assumptions about the ease of learning about likelihoods and consequences from experience. In the context of climate-related risks and a role-playing game situation, the findings suggest there may also be an emotional rather than purely analytical response to losses. The findings also suggest that decision-support systems for aquaculture need to take into account how recent experiences and other factors influence risk perceptions and decisions.

## P-2240-12

### The media coverage of climate change and air pollution in French press

M. Madelin (1) ; S. Duché, (1)

(1) University Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Umr prodig, Paris, France

Climate change and air pollution have become two major concerns of the French, objects of issues, debates and, therefore, recurring topics in the media. The study of a theme through its media treatment is rich and can illustrate the interface between scientific knowledge and its return to the public. Or it can reveal a potential difference between the two, and more widely be used to understand representations of phenomena through the words and their associations.

This paper presents a media coverage analysis on climate change and air pollution in French national newspapers, from a corpus of 2.961 press articles. The temporal study shows mainly a relative recent and strong media influence of climate change, an aspect relevant to a response to air pollution episode and policy measures. The semantic analysis identifies four lexical fields: economy, transport, legislative framework - policy and environment. Finally, the articles with the terms of climate and weather show a diversity of approach taken by reporters and are found in various topics (from a HAC). Between these two items, the media treatment of air pollution has been very little covered in contrast to controversial issues around climate change, but the two are often related, sometimes not in a relevant manner.

## P-2240-13

### Dangerous climate here and now: Do our indicators let us perceive the signals? The 2003 heat wave in France

C. Mays (1) ; M. Poumadere (1)

(1) SYMLOG France, Research and consulting, Paris, France

Fifteen thousand persons died in the French episode of

heat wave in August 2003, during the hottest summer in Europe since 1500. Yet it took months or years for this count to be recognized. The heat wave dangers resulted from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures were combined here with socioeconomic vulnerability and in particular, social attenuation of hazards - a multi-form inability of individuals and institutions to recognize that people were dying of the heat. The French experience confirmed research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet in France in 2003 had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Entrained indicators can mask or reveal the dangers of climate change. Improving indicators might be a significant lever in bringing about more sustainable behaviors.

## P-2240-14

### Perception, Collapse and Climate Change: an Anthropological Theory Approach

F. Miguel (1) ; I. Ibiapina (2) ; M. Curi (1)

(1) Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil; (2) Universidade de Brasília, Antropologia social, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil

In this paper, we intend to discuss from the point of view of current anthropological theories, the possibility of misperception of climate changes in human societies that historically have collapsed, as well as those that are in process. We analyze critically the ethnographic cases presented in Jared Diamond's book *Collapse*, from the ecological theories and Tim Ingold's ecology of life. Our intent is to understand if the new ontologies proclaimed in those anthropological theories, which deny categories such as 'misperception', since perception is not supposed to be a vision of nature out there, but a process among different person-organisms in continuous changeable environment, can deal with the historical experiences of collective collapse.

## P-2240-15

### Cultural biases on climate change discourse - Findings on multinational survey in ICA-RUS Project

S. Munakata (1) ; Y. Fujigaki (2) ; E. Yagi (3) ; Y. Yamanouchi (3)

(1) Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co., Ltd., Environment and Energy Dept., Tokyo, Japan; (2) The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

Climate change discourse tends to be framed by a particular set of values. There are different fundamental worldviews and perspectives jostling for position, and disagreement among the prescriptions for climate change can partly be explained by the underlying antimony.

Nation-wide Web surveys were administered in 3 countries (Japan, USA and Germany). Respondents were questioned social value preferences relating to Mary Douglas' grid and group scores, preference on global mitigation target, and risk perceptions on climate change impacts. Then they were shown mitigation options with its GHGs reduction amount, cost, uncertainties and side effects. Finally, they can choose cost allocation options between citizens and industries, and between developed and developing countries. Respondents could immediately confirm the result of their selections on the Web in terms of estimated temperature increase in 2100 and burden of mitigation costs so as to respondents can examine the balance and consistencies among target, costs and GHG reductions.

The cultural characteristics of each country are shown in grid and group score distributions. The respondents in USA put emphasis on interests of individuals ('low-group'). Germany shows tendency of sharing common target ('high-group') in the European Union, but is characterized by the narrowest distribution biased toward hierarchical tendency ('high-grid and high-group'). These cultural
biases are reflected in the survey results. The public of USA doesn't like legal binding of global common target, in contrast to the other high-group countries. The public of Japan accepted harder GHG reduction efforts in developed countries than in developing countries, in contrast to the other low-grid countries insist on the same level efforts.

In group interviews, public of Japan often shows the new leave decisions of climate change to his institutions. This observation is another evidence of institutional nature of Japanese society.

The Ministry of the Environment, Japan established an interdisciplinary research project, Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICARUS) conducted by Dr. Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies. This research is a part of the ICARUS project.

P-2240-16

## Misperceptions of Climate Change among Family Farmers - The Case of Mato Grosso State

S. Nasuti (1) ; G. Litre, (1) ; M. Bursztyn, (1) ; C. Saito, (1) ; SC. Da (2) ; C. Henke, (3)

(1) University of Brasília, Center for Sustainable Development, Brasília / DF, Brazil; (2) Universidade Estadão de Mato Grosso, Caceres, Brazil; (3) University of Brasília, Ecoa, Brasília / DF, Brazil

In Brazil, climatological data has shown a steady increase of temperature levels in all Brazilian regions over the last 50 years. On the other side, rainfall levels records have remained stable in many areas of this country. This is the case of several areas of the Mato Grosso (MT) state, Brazil's second largest producer of agricultural products such as soybean, and sugarcane, and one of the most threatened by climate change. Approximately 70% of the surveyed areas of MT, including the Chapada dos Guimarães in the Cerrado biome, have revealed stable rainfall levels between 1980 and 2010. However, when interviewed about climate change, the vast majority of family farmers pointed out to a perceived decrease of rainfall levels and suggested that this was the main reason for their economic losses at the farm level and a threat to the sustainability of their livelihoods.

In this regard, this project aims at understanding why so many family farmers wrongly attribute their loss of agricultural productivity to a decline in rainfall levels that has not been registered by meteorological stations, thus mal-adapting to the challenges that climatic change poses to their livelihoods and to the overall sustainability of family farming in the state.

P-2240-17

## How anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the odds of individual extreme weather events - a communication opportunity

F. Otto (1) ; K. Haustein, (1) ; P. Uhe, (1) ; M. Allen (1) ; H. Cullen (2)

(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America

Warming of the global climate system is unequivocal, predominantly due to rising greenhouse gases with direct implications from rising mean global temperatures for some slow-onset events such as sea level rise, which can therefore be linked directly to past emissions. In many regions, however, extreme weather events, like heatwaves, floods, and droughts, are associated with greater loss and damage. An increase in average temperatures will lead to an increase in the frequency or magnitude of some extreme weather events including heat waves and droughts. For example, the deaths at least thirty-five thousand people in Europe are attributable to the record-breaking heat wave of 2003. Extreme heat events and subsequent droughts can be directly linked to the loss of human life as well as damage to, or the significant diminishment of economic productivity.

The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) has demonstrated over the last decade that it is now possible to attribute the fraction of risk caused by

anthropogenic climate change to particular weather events and their associated losses. In other words, PEA enables us to give a quantitative estimate of how much anthropogenic climate change is costing us today.

This ability could potentially have a huge impact on climate change communication. Extreme events, in particular those that are not just rare from a meteorological perspective but also lead to severe and netmanet damage and not only everyday life usually receives, there is no level of public attention. If attribution studies show that a particular event was indeed made more likely due to anthropogenic climate change, i.e. anthropogenic climate change has increased the chance of the event occurring at this point in time, human induced climate change is transformed from something that is happening at some point in the future to a real threat in the here and now. Previously these studies took months to accomplish, delivering results long after public attention has peaked. Through a new partnership between Climate Central, a non-profit organisation providing TV weather forecasters with climate information, the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute and other academic partners this huge communication opportunity will be taken to the next level by building a modelling and communication framework that provides decision-makers, and in particular the public, with the means to make clear the quantitative connections between greenhouse gas emissions and extreme weather events in real-time.

This fast turnaround ensures that any communication opportunity will have maximum impact as an extreme event only remains topical while it is unfolding. By hearing the science as the public experience the event, they will really begin to fully understand climate change.

P-2240-18

## The Role of Climate Change Concern in the Acceptability of Energy Supply Technologies and Energy Demand Reduction

W. Poortinga (1)

(1) Cardiff University, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff, United Kingdom

As a large proportion of carbon dioxide emissions are generated by the domestic sector, individuals need to make drastic changes to their current lifestyle in order to play their part in climate change mitigation. Not only do they need to change their personal behaviour, they also have to accept new low-carbon technologies in order to decarbonise the energy they are using. This paper makes the case for a national, nationally-representative survey (n=1,822) on public perceptions of climate change and energy futures in Britain. It examines the role of climate change perceptions in the willingness to accept low-carbon energy-supply technologies, such as solar and wind energy, and their willingness to change their behaviour to reduce energy demand. The study found that concern about climate change was strongly associated with the acceptability of both demand-side measures and supply-side technologies. In addition, the study found that personal values and environmental identity are important factors in the willingness to accept low-carbon technologies and energy demand reduction. It appeared that people with traditional conservative values were less likely to engage in low-carbon behaviours due to higher levels of concern about energy security. Individuals with self-transcendence values were more willing to engage in low-carbon behaviours and to accept low-carbon energy-supply technologies as a result of higher levels of environmental identity, concern about climate change, and personal norms. The results of this study will be put into a wider programme of research on public perceptions of climate change and energy choices to discuss the role of human choices and behaviour in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Furthermore, international comparisons will be made to explore different views on what are acceptable pathways. The paper is part of the session towards solutions that enhance technology and markets: the role of choices and behaviour change» (3316 - Behaviour Change).

P-2240-19

## Addressing the Adversities of Climate Change through Mindfulness and Resilience: A Conceptual Framework
P. Rishi (1)

(1) Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal, MP, India

In India, climate change could represent additional pressure on ecological and socio-economic systems that are already under stress due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing population, long densely populated and low lying coast lines, and an economy that is closely tied to natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, which requires exorbitant efforts on the part of respective communities to cope and adapt. There is a need to build a resilient community full of eco consciousness and mindfulness, capable to face climate change and associated disaster risk with psychological hardiness and strong will power. For that, governments need to be aware of current and future potential risk and take more initiative in order to enhance the eco consciousness and resilience of the urban systems and communities. Co-adaptation is one such form of collective action whereby stakeholders of a community work together with a government agency to undertake some aspects of environmental issues which can be potentially threat full to the changing climate (Tompkins and Adger, 2004).

Socio psychological and spiritual factors play an important role in this regard to make serious efforts to modify and alter the life styles and behaviours of people in order to prove themselves as environmentally sensitive citizens across the planet, better suited to today's environmental needs. Life style change also helped in developing human resilience to climatic variability in a more positive way to promote subjective as well as global well being. Implications for psychological and Spiritual health were also discussed.

P-2240-20

# Challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on flood risk perceptions in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment, Australia

M. Shafaq (1)

(1) University of New South Wales, Institute of Environmental Studies, NSW, Australia

The Australian climate is characterised by extreme weather conditions. Future unpredictability has placed pressure on government agencies to increase their effectiveness of managing adaptation to extreme weather events, increase coordination and improve risk communication and community participation. Efforts to increase adaptation to climate change at different levels of government and among a wide range of stakeholders require identifying and understanding the barriers that hinder adaptive actions. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks in to barriers to flood management under a changing maladaptation. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example. The catchment is characterised by ambitious development goals with 180,000 new developments in the floodplain of the two major rivers (Hawkesbury and Nepean Rivers) of this catchment, unique topography that increases the risk of floods in this regions, and challenge to maintain conservation of the Blue Mountains as a World Heritage Site.

This research paper explores the perceptions of residents to flood risks to their property and the likelihood of other factors that can influence this perception and hence the impact of climate change. The paper suggests decreasing rainfall trends between 1920 and 2008. The study concluded that there is need to educate farmers on climate change so that they are able to design adaptation strategies that take into cognizance existing local level knowledge and practices on land and water management so as to boost agricultural production. While there are multiple stressors that confront farmers, climate variability and change remain the most critical and exacerbate livelihood insecurity for those farmers with higher levels of vulnerability to these stressors. Climate

as a flood-safe region. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of communities residing in inland floodplains to contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from the communities.

P-2240-21

# Small Scale Peri - Urban Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change in Domboshwa, Zimbabwe

Vl. VIanyiwa (1)

(1) Zimbabwe Open University, Geography & Environmental Studies Department, Harare, Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is a semi-arid country heavily reliant on rainfall (generally November to April). Rainfall exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability characterized by shifts in the onset of rains, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, increases in the proportion of low rainfall years, decreases in low intensity rainfall events, and increases in the frequency and intensity of mid-season dry-springs. Extreme weather events, namely tropical cyclones and drought have also increased in frequency and intensity in the country. Agriculture is the main source of income for most smallholder farmers who depend on rain fed cropping and livestock rearing in Zimbabwe. Adaptation of agriculture to climate variability and change impacts is vital for sustenance and food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is important to have a clear understanding of the farmers' perceptions on climate change adaptation at farm-level. Thus, this study identified, evaluated and suggested farm-level adaptation strategies to climate variability and change in Domboshwa peri-urban communal area located 26km north east of Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe. Domboshwa is located in Ward 4 of Goromonzi District in Mashonaland East Province. Domboshwa is comprised of about 40 000 households with an average household size of 5 people and with more than 75% of these people relying on farming. The research design used in this study was both qualitative and quantitative (mixed) in nature. A combination of both methods yielded more validity and reliability than using either method on its own. The study of climate change adaptation is focused on inquiry based on the description of experience and such studies adhere to a philosophical of understanding social phenomena which traditionally advocates for the use of qualitative and quantitative data. Simple random sampling was used to select 45 respondents for the questionnaire. The population registers from the Headman of each of the five wards: Manyawu, Mawanda, Shumba, Murape and Pote were obtained which constituted the sampling frame. Each entity or individual was selected one at a time and independently therefore ensuring that each entity had an equal chance of being selected from the three selected villages. Purposive sampling was used to select people or organisations that are working in the area. Specific method used in the Quantitative approach is the survey. Qualitative methods used include Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), specifically resource mapping, historical trend lines, and seasonal and daily activity calendars. Focus group discussions and in-depth case studies were also used. Climate vulnerability and capacity which combines local and scientific knowledge will be used to elicit for knowledge that is locally generated by the farmers to adapt to climate change. Findings revealed that local people perceived changes in rainfall and temperature based on their daily experiences. The majority of the smallholder farmers have agreed measures to address change and variability which include crop diversification, soil and water conservation practices, off-farm income activities and integrated crop and livestock diversification. The smallholder farmers are constrained in their daily farming activities by poor infrastructure, inadequate credit facilities as the farmers lack collateral and multifunctional input and output markets. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggests decreasing rainfall trends between 1920 and 2008. The study concluded that there is need to educate farmers on climate change so that they are able to design adaptation strategies that take into cognizance existing local level knowledge and practices on land and water management so as to boost agricultural production. While there are multiple stressors that confront farmers, climate variability and change remain the most critical and exacerbate livelihood insecurity for those farmers with higher levels of vulnerability to these stressors. Climate
variability and change might also have a positive impact and localised benefits in the context of structural changes in community's social organisation and economic activities under certain circumstances. There is need for agricultural research to support appropriate agricultural innovations and development of new livelihood activities emerging as farmers respond to climate variability and change.

## P-2240-22

### Public perception of climatic change and the risk control action of the government in metropolitan area of Belém, Brazil

S. Thomas (1) ; O. Almeida (2) ; CCC. Gena (3) ; S. Rivero, (4) ; VDA. Atila (5)

(1) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Centre for Higer Studies on Amazon -NAEA, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (2) UFPA, NEAEA, Belem PA, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, economy, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Institute of social science icsa, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (5) The Fluminense Federal University, UFF, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The extreme hydroclimatic changes such as floods, drought, soil erosion and collapse of river margins expose several negative impacts on the daily life of the population who live in the metropolitan city of Belém, in the Amazon region of Brazil. The characteristics of spatial occupation of the city favour the risk associated with these changes and the whole population is vulnerable to it.

The objective of this study was to analyse the perceptions of students of Federal University of Pará, Brazil (UFPA) about climate change risk caused by extreme hydroclimatic events in the metropolitan city of Belem and their vision about the Government action to reduce the risk caused by these extreme events. In addition, the research analyses public opinion in relation to citizens' participation in decision-making and confidence in the ability of the State in risk governance.

The main hypothesis of this study is that the public opinion on the perception of problems related to extreme hydroclimatic changes is important for making public policies related to risk governance by the State.

This research employed the same structure of questions of Tien (2013)[i] used to evaluate the perception of risk in relation to climate change in Taiwan. The questionnaires were applied to all undergraduate students of economics from Federal University of Pará, from the morning and night course during the months of May to June 2014.

In the perception of respondents about climate change, 78% think the importance of climate change is not exaggerated. Despite the accelerated industrialization and commercial farming are important factors for economic growth, 71% of respondents agree that combating climate change would be favourable to the Brazilian economy. More than half of total respondents (51 percent) agrees that a possible implementation of environmental protection would facilitate the Brazilian economic development and 75% of the respondents disagrees with the permanence of oil subsidies.

About 62% of respondents are not willing to pay more taxes on clean energy and environment. It is noticed that the population support Government initiative to mitigate the effect of climate change, but they are not ready to pay for it. In the opinion of 54% of students, the information available on the origin of climate change is insufficient

and do not contribute to understand the actual situation of the problem. A significant 72% percentage of students considers insufficient the actions of private companies to deal with climate change. They believe that the Government should establish policies to mitigate climate changes.

The study pointed out that the lack of communication and transparency of Government hinders actions that could be undertaken on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Most respondents disagree that the Government grants subsidies to fossil fuel companies. At the same time, they are not willing to pay more tax to fund climate change mitigation. The study shows that there is a perception of climate change risk by the population and there is demand for more transparent communication available to them of public policies adopted by the government on risk governance.

[i] For more information, refers to TIEN, Chou Kuei. The public perception of climate change in Taiwan and its paradigm shift. Energy Policy. n.61, 2013. p. 1252-1260.

Acknowledgement: IDRC, CAPES and FAPESPA

## P-2240-23

### A Sense of Place: Social Recovery in the Post-Disaster Reconstruction in Sichuan, China

H. Wu (1) ; C. Hou, (2)

(1) Sichuan Agricultural University, School of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Duijiangyan, Sichuan, China; (2) Sichuan Agricultural University, School of architecture and urban-rural planning, Duijiangyan, Sichuan, China

Climate change has been triggering frequent global environmental crisis. Those environmental crisis bring plenty unwanted relocations, which deeply affect survivors' physical and social environments. While most post-disaster reconstruction and recovery give predominant priority to the physical reconstruction, by timely producing enough housing and sound infrastructures for survivors, there is a lack of attention on the social recovery of the survivors, such as assisting them settling in the new environments. Taking the post-disaster reconstruction conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China, May 12, 2008 as an example, this paper addresses the problem that the lack of synchronization and imbalance between physical and social reconstruction resulted in the most earthquake survivors to experience unstable attachments to their new environments. Based on this phenomenon, this paper presents a reflection on how post-disaster physical reconstruction (particularly in China) could be improved by utilizing the survivors' social and individual memories. Focusing on the memory workshops and walk-along interviews with the local earthquake survivors, this paper uses the method of storytelling to examine memory's function in the earthquake survivors' relocation process. This paper argues that the local earthquake survivors' memories of their daily lives and their use of spaces in their original homes provided means to support their social recovery process, assisting them to grow attachments to their new dwellings, to reestablish their social networks, and to redevelop a sense of place. This paper suggests that the local residents' place-related social and individual memories should be considered as a new method for policy makers, urban designers and social workers to understand the changing of natural environment and how this is impacting humanity.

## 2241- New representations and new frames for the climate change debate

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-2241-01

### Climate and the Future of Inequality

S. Jasanoff (1)

(1) Harvard Kennedy School, Pforzheim professor of science and technology studies, Cambridge, United States of America

Climate change has been presented as the great equalizer, one of those productions of the modern risk society that places all of humanity at the same disadvantage with respect to a calamitous future. Social studies of risk, however, paint a very different picture, showing that the adverse consequences of risk fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of global society. How might the future of climate policy look if climate change were reframed in terms of the inequality of its shorter-term impacts rather than the potentially longer-term equalization of a world at risk? The talk focuses on the
disciplinary and institutional means through which
imaginaries of climate equality and inequality are created
and propagated, including law, economics, and climate
science itself.

O-2241-01

A new framing and a new governmentality order for the climate problem

A. Dahhan (1)

(1) EHESS / CNRS, Centre alexandre koyré, Paris, France

For the last 25 years, anthropogenic climate change has
been framed as a global environmental pollution problem,
which must be solved by reducing human greenhouse
gases emissions through a global agreement negotiated
under the auspices of the UN. The role played by sciences
in the construction of the problem is essential, and is well
summarized by the claim «science speaks truth to power,»
with science and politics assumed to be hermetically
separated. Although in reality this «linear model» is largely
inadequate to account for the much more complex links
between climate science and politics, notably within the
IPCC, it has long been hegemonic, leading to debates
focus on science rather than political responses.

This dominant framing has been undermined by the failure of major assumptions underlying international negotiations: it is now clear 1) that climate change is a geopolitical, economic, and development problem as much as an environmental one, 2) that we cannot solve it in isolation from all the regimes (energy, development, trade,) which perform the economic and financial globalization, and 3) that the needed industrial and social transformations have to be named and largely debated.

As the Paris CoP approaches, this paper critically examines
the mistakes and the illusions of this framing, suggesting
a new order of governmentality.

O-2241-02

Climate Change, Adaptation, and Commu-
nity Discourse: Framing for Vulnerability
and Transformation

D. Schlosberg (1)

(1) University of Sydney, Sydney Environment Institute,
Sydney, NSW, Australia

The impacts of climate change are already having an affect on communities. From increased storm frequency and flooding, to heat waves and fire danger, to food insecurity and migration, climate change is no longer a future concern, but a present experience. The politics of climate change, therefore, have moved beyond a sole focus on global or state action on the mitigation of emissions, to local and regional adaptation policy.

One of the central frames for adaptation is risk and disaster management; in Australia, nearly every local government council has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan clearly framed by risk. This paper examines the very different framing for adaptation policy articulated by community groups that are primarily concerned with the vulnerability of basic capabilities and broader social and economic transformation. I assess two sources of this community discourse and framing. First, a content analysis of the websites, Facebook and Twitter feeds of environmental and community advocacy groups in Australia is examined to assess the main topical concerns expressed. Second, a deliberative democratic community adaptation policy consultation processes was run in Sydney. Using Q methodology and discourse mapping, the preferences of individual participants are mapped with regard to adaptation policy priorities both before and after the deliberative events. The content analysis and policy recommendations put together by citizens as part of the deliberative process are also explored for indications of a framing quite different from a simple risk management approach

There are two key findings to report. First, community
groups express a particular concern for vulnerability of
basic capabilities in climate-challenged communities;
these concerns are also clearly reflected in the community
consultations. This contrasts with the language and policy
framing of local governments on risk management and

emergency response. Second, the deliberative process
helps to increase the collective attention to both vulnerable
capabilities and communities and the importance of
transformation of local policy and process, and brings
consensus around such framings. Ultimately, it may be
that the disconnect between government and citizen
framing is due, in part, to a lack of community engagement
and participation in the development of adaptation plans,
which has led to the exclusion of the diversity and widely
varying concerns of community groups in the development
of local adaptation policies.

O-2241-03

Carbon sink geopolitics: Using Science and Technology Studies to explore the futures of collective climate action

V. Ehrenstein (1)

(1) Goldsmiths- University of London, Department of
sociology, London, United Kingdom

In the mid 2000s, as part of the international effort to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the negotiation process on climate change started to look at how to reduce carbon releases caused by tropical deforestation – an item and forthcoming regulation referred to as REDD+. By drawing on Science Studies and a multi-sited fieldwork, which investigated the theories of climate negotiations and followed between 2009 and 2012 the problem of CO2 emissions assignable to tropical forest loss (from DRC’s Ministry of environment, to the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties in Durban and Europe-based offices of carbon experts), this presentation suggests using the case of REDD+ to explore the notion of carbon sink geopolitics as a potential learning opportunity for future climate actions.

The transformation of tropical forests into a carbon sink that should be taken care of occurred through diverse public aid interventions deployed in low-income regions (e.g. the Congo Basin), relentless scrutiny exercised by non governmental organisations on behalf of intact forests or the rights of indigenous people, research and commercial activities dedicated to measurement and quantification aspects, and lively debates within intergovernmental negotiations about the rules of a possible market-inspired mechanism. Such effort dedicated to preserve carbon sinks – or at least to make sure that the consequences of their exploitation (e.g. through logging or agriculture) do not go unnoticed – is still inscribed in the interstate and quasi-legal United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet, the geopolitics that the REDD+ process might be a precursor of and that this presentation proposes to sketch is an assemblage of, among other things, monitoring instruments like earth observation satellites, financial redistribution vehicles like multilateral funds, and institutionally mobile actors like expatriate consultants and environmental activists. I argue that, while this geopolitics relies on the geographical and political order established by the United Nations, it develops in the interstices of such division, in inter-national spaces, where it creates a collective concern, the carbon stored by tropical forests, and its socio-technical community.

O-2241-04

Politics of the Earth: Three Scientific Chal-
lenges in the Anthropocene

F. Gemenne (1) ; B. Latour (2)

(1) Sciences Po, Politics of the earth, Paris, France; (2)
Sciences Po, Medialab, Paris, France

It has been argued that the Earth had entered the
Anthropocene since the industrial revolution. The
Anthropocene is best described as a geological epoch
where humans have become the driving forces of changes
on the planet. The epoch is characterized by a radical
transformation of the relationship between humans and
the Earth, of which climate change is one of the
most evident transformations. It signals a new phase in the
relations between a planet regulated by he laws of physics
and biology, and human societies regulated by the laws of
economics and politics. This transformation needs us to
reconceive the scales and dynamics of collective action,
to think together the World and the Earth.

*Politics of the Earth* is a new interdisciplinary programme
that seeks to achieve this objective. Its scientific perimeter is organised around two central dimensions, which depend on each other: a dimension of representation, and a dimension of government.

These two dimensions encompass thematic and methodological stakes, which can only be addressed through a common work between natural and social sciences. In order to think these multiple scales and dynamics, the Anthropocene imposes new representations, which are being made possible through the production of new data. Many of these data and databases, however, remain impossible to combine together, which prevents researchers from thinking the transformations of the Earth-Worldx nexus in its multiple dimensions, and which also prevents an effective government of these new stakes.

The programme "Politics of the Earth" gathers research labs from different disciplines in different universities, around three challenges that crystallise the Anthropocene:

* Geopolitics of carbon dioxides;

* Expertise of risks and mediation of disasters;

* Dynamics of critical zones and urbanisation conflicts.

This session aims to present the preliminary results of the programme, which was launched in January 2015, and to show how these interdisciplinary perspectives can help represent climate change in the framework of the Anthropocene.

O-2241-05

## Realising consilience. How better communication between archaeologists, historians and geoscientists can transform the study of past climate change in the Mediterranean

E. Xoplaki (1); A. Izdebski (2); K. Holmgren (3); E. Weiberg (4); SR. Stocker (5); J. Luterbacher (1); U. Büntgen (6); A. Florenzano (7); A. Gogou (8); SA. Leroy (9); B. Martrat (10); A. Masi (11); AM. Mercuri (7); P. Montagna (12); L. Sadori (7); A. Schneider (13); MA. Sicre (14); M. Triantaphyllou (15)

(1) Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Geography: Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen, Germany; (2) Jagiellonian University, Institute of history, byzantine history department, Krakow, Poland; (3) Stockholm University, Department of physical geography

and quaternary geology, Stockholm, Sweden; (4) Uppsala University, Archaeology and ancient history, Uppsala, Sweden; (5) American School of Classical Studies at Athens, Athens, Greece; (6) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Dendroecology group, Birmensdorf, Sweden; (7) Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Laboratorio di palinologia e paleobotanica, Modena, Italy; (8) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Anavyssos, Greece; (9) Brunel University London, Institute for the environment, Uxbridge, United Kingdom; (10) IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; (11) Università di Roma La Sapienza, Laboratorio di palinologia e paleobotanica, Rome, Italy; (12) Istituto di Scienze Marine (ISMAR), Bologna, Italy; (13) UC-San Diego, Department of anthropology, San Diego, United States of America; (14) CNRS, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (15) University of Athens, Faculty of geology and geoenvironment, Athens, Greece

This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues that have bearing on the ways in which geoscientists, historians and archaeologists collaborate in the study of the societal impacts of climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin with discussing the methodologies of the three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, i.e. the attempts at unifying different academic disciplines, in particular from among the sciences and the humanities, that work on finding answers to similar questions. We demonstrate that there exists a number of significant similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and environmental sciences, due to their common interest in studying the past societal and environmental phenomena; this has to do, for instance, with the use of narrative structures as the means of communicating research results, which is common to the three of them. Consequently, we also present and compare the different approaches of a sociological impact of climatic change that are characteristic for each discipline, which it is necessary to comprehend in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange. Finally, in the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences between the publication cultures, and differing views on research impact. Among other recommendations we make, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim at creating a shared, hybrid publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both within and outside of academia. Finally, we present possible actions on the part of both scientists and humanities scholars (archaeologists and historians) that - if taken - will solve several of the challenges discussed in paper.

# 2242 - Migration dynamics under current and future climate change

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

O-2242-01

### Climate migration and the politics of causal attribution: a case study in Mongolia

M. Benoit (1)

(1) Wuhan University School of Law, Wuhan, China

Migration is always multi-causal. Ascribing a specific cause to migration, such as through the concept of "climate migration," participates consequently to a political exercise - a play of shade and light where attention is focused on the responsibilities of certain actors rather than others. This is the case, this article argues, regarding internal migration in Mongolia, whereby, during the last two decades, nomic and semi-nomic herders as well as inhabitants from small urban centres come to settle in insolubulous suburbs of the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The Mongolian authorities are keen to highlight changing environmental conditions that can be traced to climate change: a change in precipitation patterns and an increase of average temperatures contribute to cause large loss of livestock during harsh winters (dzuq). Yet, a multitude of other factors concurrently influence the migratory behaviour of Mongolia's nomads: unregulated and

unsustainable pastoral practices, the insufficient provision of basic and support services in the countryside, or, more generally, the lack of public support to the agricultural sector, - identifying concurring causes of migration suggests alternative response measures, and this article argues that Mongolia should urgently rectify its development policies to provide a room for each of its citizens.

O-2242-02

### How can migration support adaptation? Testing the climate change adaptation-migration nexus

J. Blocher (1); F. Gemenne (2); N. Perrin (3)

(1) University of Liège, Sciences Po Paris, Liège, Belgium; (2) Francois.Gemenne@uvsq.fr, Observatory of versailles-saint-quentin-en-yvelines, Guyancourt, France; (3) University of Liège, Cedem, Liège, Belgium

Empirical evidence shows that in the face of environmental and climate stress, migration is a common household strategy aimed at supporting basic needs and livelihood strategies (c.f. Foresight 2011). Policy makers commonly view adaptation measures as means to reduce migration pressures. But migration may also be seen as an adaptation strategy itself; as a way to reduce population pressures in climate-prone places while migrants already living outside
of vulnerable areas provide important resources to help communities adapt and respond to climate change.

However, the application of the environment and climate change adaptation-migration nexus has not been empirically tested, nor has the policy apparatus needed to deliver this potential been developed and assessed. More research is needed if policy interventions are to enhance the positive effects of migration on adaptive capacities and distinguish potentially maladaptive effects. The objective of this conceptual and methodological paper is to therefore to flag different possible choices that can be made to study and represent the relationship between migration and adaptation, employing insights from a recently developed and tested survey instrument for the 'Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy' (MECLEP) project.

The first section defines adaptation as it relates to mobility in the broad sense, taking care to anchor the potential of migration to build resilience and increase adaptive capacities within complex and potentially maladaptive processes. Then insight is given into the current body of knowledge contributing to this important area of inquiry. The next section addresses the climate change adaptation-migration nexus as it relates to the three main points: the individual migrants themselves, the community of origin, and the community of destination. Conceptual and methodological difficulties met to-date are explored, with a reflection on how different approaches are best utilized in empirical studies. Insights from the MECLEP representative household survey implementation and research strategy, recently tested in at least three countries (Haiti, Papua New Guinea, Viet Nam) are brought to the fore. Final insight weighs the challenges and advantages of the MECLEP and suggests what solutions may exist to advance the project and the field of research overall.

## O-2242-03

# Abrupt climate change superimposed to RCP 8.5 IPCC scenario: potential consequences for population migration

G. Ramstein (1) ; D. Defrance (1) ; C. Dumas (1) ; S. Charbit (1) ; J. Alvarez-Solas (2) ; F. Gemme (3) ; JP. Vanderlinden (3)

(1) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain; (3) University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Observatory of versailles-saint-quentin-en-yvelines/cear, Guyancourt, France

From Paleoclimate studies we know much more about abrupt changes as Heinrich events which are huge amount of icebergs periodically spreading over North Atlantic.

These events occurred when the Laurentide ice sheet was unstable during glacial times. Recently, new mechanisms envolving ocean and cryosphere were developed to explain these instabilities [1, 2]. In contrast, Greenland and Antarctica were more stable during last glacial/interglacial cycles. Ongoing global warming has also for consequence to make Greenland and West Antarctica out of equilibrium. Therefore, in future climate, new abrupt climate changes linked with surges from the cryosphere may happen again. To investigate this issue we built 3 scenarios corresponding to about 3 meter sea level rise : one melting part of Greenland, another one without West Antarctica ice sheet and last one is a mix of both. These scenarios are superimposed to RCP 8.5 which is the most pessimistic one used by IPCC. They allowed us to diagnose major climate changes, especially in regions with high population density (Monsoon areas).

We will first explain the methodology and the scenarios we used. These experiments have indeed, many common features with Heinrich events simulations in the past and housing experiments in the future [3]. Especially, the ITZ shifts and its impacts on monsoon areas but also long term change in thermohaline circulation will be described. The consequences of such atmospheric and ocean perturbations will be also considered from a population migration point of view.

Most of the study focused on population migration is due to sea level rise, but here we developed an original approach using climate scenarios accounting for both sea level rise and induced climate changes.

[1] Alvarez-Solas J., Charbit S., Ritz C., Paillard D., Ramstein G., Dumas C., 2010. Links between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, Nature Geosci. 3, 122-126

[2] J. Alvarez-Solas, Gilles Ramstein PNAS «On the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events» PNAS vol. 108 no. 50 E1359-E1360

[3] RONALD J. STOUFFER et al, Climate Response to External Sources of Freshwater: North Atlantic versus theSouthern Ocean, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, VOLUME 20, 436, 2007.

## O-2242-04

# Unsettling Futures - Climate change, migration, and the immobility of climate politics

G. Bettini (1)

(1) Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom

The message that climate science and current emission trajectories are sending is clear: limiting global warming to 2°C is more and more an unlikely prospect. This predicament is hard to apprehend also because a 3 or 4°C warmer planet is a largely unknown place, where socio-ecological spaces and relations look differently. Visualizing the impacts of such severe climate change - and of our responses to it - requires a radical imaginative effort.

If we take the possibility of 3 or 4°C warmer planet seriously, we can expect changes in the very ways in which humans understand, plan and experience their (mob)ility. And, in effect, the question of how climate change will influence human migration has alimented a florid debate in the last decade. Academics have written reams about climate-induced migration, and policy negotiations have gathered pace. To be sure, various steps forwards have been taken. The securinging drives once 'justified' by the fear of mounting waves of climate refugees have given way to the milder imaginaries of resilience, adaptation and development. While previously signified solely in terms of forced migration, the nexus climate change-migration is looked upon from a more comprehensive vista. Displacement, reduced mobility (with the issue of 'trapped populations'), voluntary migration (praised as a legitimate adaptation strategy), planned relocation and resettlement are co-protagonists of today's policy debates. The environmental determinism previously dominant is thereby gone, more and more nuanced understandings of (climate) migration have prevailed.

Nonetheless, there is a striking dissonance between the paucity of those debates and the re-imagining necessary for formulating a politicized understanding of so called climate migration. While we should feel no nostalgia for the alarmist narratives of the past, the current mundane discourses anaesthetise the radical challenges posed by the climate-migration nexus. The prospect of unprecedented changes is dealt with through an attempt to reproduce "business as usual". The emerging discourses contemplate displacement, trapped populations, migration as adaptation and planned relocation in ways that constrict the agendas of dominant international agencies. The current approaches to climate migration are a re-proposition of the measures predominant in the fields of development, aid, migration, risk management and climate adaptation, which have proved functional to the re-production of neoliberal relations.

In other words, the emerging discourses foreclose the political by sterilizing the radical questions that might emerge. To the radical transformations associated to a 3 or 4 °C warmer planet, the "new" discourses on climate migration respond with 'more of the same', making sure that nothing can change even in the front of epochal changes.

## O-2242-05

# Potential Migration Impacts in Extreme Climate Change Scenarios: A Systemic Perspective

C. Zickgraf (1) ; P. Ozer (2) ; F. De Longueville (3)

(1) University of Liège / University of Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Center for ethnic and migration studies (cedem), Liège, Belgium; (2) UNIVERSITY OF LIEGE, Departement of
environmental sciences and management, Liège, Belgium; (3)
University of Liège, Cedem, Liège, Belgium

With the target of limiting global warming to 2°C becoming increasingly difficult to achieve, policymakers and other decision-makers need to begin to plan ahead for adaptation to changes in climate associated with higher levels of global warming. The HELIX project (High-End Climatic Impacts and Adaptation), an EU FP7 project funded by the European Commission, seeks to provide a clear, coherent, internally consistent view of a manageable number of 'future worlds' under higher levels of global warming reached under a range of physical and socio-economic circumstances. In this presentation, we specifically address how migration will fit into this picture. Assessing future migration under extreme climate change is not a facile task. Often predictions of massive future displacement are based on assumptions about future living in a risk zone, without taking into account differentiated vulnerabilities and capacities for resilience. Moreover, predictions of massive human displacement in the future tell us little about the character, scale, or destinations of these projected movements. Therefore, in one of the tasks of HELIX, a multi-disciplinary team seeks to appraise future migration based on empirical investigation into how people have historically and are currently responding to environmental changes.

One of the critical insights revealed through HELIX thus far is the importance of people's perceptions of climate change in determining their migratory responses and intentions. Based on survey data from several West African countries, we compared populations' perceptions of climate change with objective climatic data. This comparison showed that most West African people are affected by what is externally considered to be 'non-significant' change. These results highlight that people are increasingly vulnerable as the 'system' (social, demographic, economic, environmental) in which they live becomes less and less able to resist different stressors, even those of limited magnitude. This finding has significant implications for migration: some of the surveyed people directly migrated in response to these changes and others plan to migrate if rainfall conditions worsen in the future. As people's migratory decisions and intentions are based on their own perceptions of climatic changes and their ability to withstand them rather external risk/resilience assessments, an increase in migration could occur faster than previously expected in West Africa in the coming decades, calling for new policy responses that have to include the resilience capacity of the entire 'system'.

Much like policy must address the decreasing systemic resilience of vulnerable populations, future climate change-related migration policies and approaches would do well to consider human (im)mobility responses from a systemic perspective. A second HELIX case study details the interconnections between various stressors (demographic, economic, environmental, etc.) and differentiated mobility patterns in a fishing community in Saint-Louis, Senegal. As climate change exacerbates populations' pre-existing vulnerability, it cannot be isolated from other pressures. Likewise, displacement and voluntary migration cannot be separated from each other. Findings show that 'voluntary' labor migration is intimately intertwined with other forms of mobility, including relocation and displacement. Those fishermen who engaged in international migration were often able to preemptively relocate their households to locations safer from the imminent effects of climate change, decreasing their likelihood of future displacement. These interrelated movements call for policy approaches that treat vulnerability and mobility – internal and international, voluntary and forced – holistically. As livelihoods dependent upon natural resources (fishing, agriculture, etc.) will become increasingly difficult to maintain with extreme climate change, people in the future may, in fact, be less able to move voluntarily without some degree of capital (human, social, financial). If migration as an adaptation strategy is not facilitated, therefore, it may decrease populations' capacities to deal with the effects of climate change and put them at risk of becoming 'trapped' or displaced in precarious conditions in the future.

## O-2242-06

### Predicting the social impacts of climate change: Migration, environment and climate change in a world of global uncertainties

**D. Ionesco (1)**

(1) International Organization for Migration, DMM/MECC, Geneva, Switzerland

The links between global environmental change and migration have been explored at length, and existing academic and institutional evidence suggests that environmental migration is a reality; what is harder to foresee is what forms it will take in the future. Will more people be forcibly displaced due to climate change and natural disasters? Will more people resort to migration as a positive adaptation strategy in the context of climate change? Will people be able to migrate at all, or will they find themselves trapped in vulnerability?

This presentation will explore the difficulties around predicting future migration flows in the context of climate change, by presenting the complexity of the phenomena and the multiple factors that are at play and by examining the phenomenon in a more general context of uncertainties around local climate change impacts, around future demographic, social and economic change, adaptation measures to come, future policies that may or may not be taken, and, very importantly, individual perceptions, reactions, needs, and ability to leave or stay. The presentation will build on IOM's long term research, operational and policy experience in the area of environmental migration, and provide some concrete examples and recommendations for future research and action.

## O-2242-07

### Migration associated with large-scale land acquisitions, land tenure and land degradation

**D. Gharbaoui (1); S. Vigil (2); N. Pearson (1)**

(1) University of Liège, Cedem, Liège, Belgium; (2) Center for Ethnic and Migration Studies, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium

The proposed presentation intends to extend current debates on migration and climate change to emphasize the importance of land planning for environmentally-induced migration with a particular focus on current research on large-scale land acquisitions, land tenure and land degradation. The panel will use a bottom-up approach to explore examples of local and regional case studies on migration dynamics associated to land management. The first case study will focus on the issue of land tenure in the Pacific regional context, the second will analyze the issue of large-scale land acquisitions in Senegal and Cambodia and the last case study will illustrate how land degradation could be a major challenge in the context of environmentally-induced migration in Burkina Faso.

The need to focus on land in the particular context of climate-induced migration is crucial as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized in its fifth assessment report released in March 2014; past examples shows that environmental change can affect land rights and land use, and at the same time, change of land use has also become in turn drivers of migration. This is particularly relevant for the Pacific region where retreating from affected coastal areas through migration as an adaptive strategy to changes in environmental patterns has always been part of the Pacific Islands' communities culture and practices. In the coming decades, the adverse effects of climate change in the region are likely to exacerbate both slow and sudden-onset environmental events threatening sustainable livelihoods and increasingly leading Pacific Islanders to use migration as coping method. However, there is a lack of study on land rights and land tenure systems that have been given great importance in the literary and policy debate on adaptation strategies in the context of Climate Change. It is crucial to address this dimension, particularly in the context of Pacific Islands, where in the majority of the countries, 80% of land is under customary tenure. Dalla Gharbaoui will study the role of land tenure in planned relocation exploring a sub-regional case study involving past examples of planned relocations in Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. A major difficulty with this type of human mobility is the disarticulation of communities and social structures following the relocation process, particularly crucial in the context of the Pacific region where the link between individuals and their land, has been an extension of their identity for millenials.
Another crucial study of land in the context of climate-induced migration focusses on the case of policies aiming at biofuel production incentivising the acquisition of large tracts of land in the Global South, often overlooking the rights of local populations and leading to the forced displacement of whole communities. Through the example of climate change mitigation policies leading to "green grabbing", we can see how the multi-causal links between climate change, migration and displacement are further complexified. The links with the category of environmentally-induced migration occur most visibly when such agro-fuel projects destroy the local land and the water resources, forcing people off their land in what could be seen as a form of tertiary displacement. Whilst those analysing the social consequences of land investments need to pay more attention to the migration outcomes, there is also a need for environmental migration scholars and practitioners to broaden the spectrum of their analyses. In order to better understand how the climatic agenda, through legitimising many recent land acquisitions has impacted local population movements in different ways, depending on particular historical and political circumstances, Sara Vigil will give field insights from both Senegal and Cambodia addressing more deeply those questions.

Another important aspect that will be discussed in the context of climate migration addresses the issue of land degradation. Based on her findings from field research conducted in Burkina Faso in 2012, Nakia Pearson will give insights on the migratory practices and adaptive strategies of farmers who have moved in response to the land degradation since the 1970s Sahel droughts in order to better define the tipping points of loss and damage, as well as how mitigation strategies may play into migration.

## O-2242-08

### Protecting the rights of people displaced and at risk of displacement

**NM. Birkeland (1)**

(1) Norwegian Refugee Council, Partnerships and Polity Department, Oslo, Norway

Every year around the world, tens of millions of people migrate and are forcibly displaced by floods, wind-storms, earthquakes, droughts and other disasters. Many find refuge within their own country but some have to go abroad. In the context of climate change, such movements are likely to increase. National and international responses to this challenge are insufficient and protection for affected people remains inadequate. States and other duty bearers need to protect and assist people displaced or at risk of displacement by disasters and the effects of climate change. Assisting such people is not only a humanitarian imperative; it is an essential component of disaster risk management, climate change adaptation and development planning.

The impact of climate change is most acutely felt by individuals and communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities which often are characterized by the limited enjoyment of rights. Many of the most important protection challenges in disaster situations related to climate change are long-standing protection and human rights concerns which are brought to light and further exacerbated by the emergency. While people displaced within their own countries are covered by national laws, international human rights law, the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement and a few regional instruments, a serious legal gap exists with regard to cross-border movements in the context of climate change. These people are in most cases not refugees under international refugee law, and human rights law does not address critical issues such as their admission, stay and basic rights. Criteria to distinguish between forced and voluntary movements in the context of disasters have not yet been elaborated.

According to the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) protection is defined as: "... all activities aimed at obtaining full respect for the rights of the individual in accordance with the letter and the spirit of the relevant bodies of law (i.e. HR law, IHL, refugee law)." Such activities can be responsive, i.e. aiming to prevent imminent or stop ongoing violations, remedial, i.e. aiming to provide redress (e.g. access to justice, reparation or rehabilitation) for past violations, or environment-building, i.e. aiming at creating the legal framework and the institutional capacity and awareness that is necessary to promote respect for

human rights and prevent future violations. Those affected by the disaster and climate change thus become individual rights holders who can claim rights from particular duty bearers rather than simply being passive beneficiaries and recipients of charity.

Displacement in the context of disasters and climate change cause and worsen protection risks such as sexual and gender-based violence, a separate, but parallel, child trafficking, the unequal access to assistance, discrimination in aid provision; enforced relocation; loss of personal documentation; land disputes and issues related to land and property rights. In view of this protection gap, there is a need for an inter-governmental process to address the challenges of cross-border displacement in the context of disasters and the effects of climate change.

## 2242-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2242-01

#### Environment and human migration in context of Climate Change: empirical insights from urban migrants in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

**S. Bilegsaikhan (1)**

(1) Seoul National University, Department of Environmental Planning, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Global climate change and regional environmental changes resulting from the process are known to influence ecosystem-dependent populations relatively directly. Human mobility, particularly rural-urban migration under the changing climate, is one of such complex issues that is highly context specific. This nexus of climate change and environment-migration is gaining growing attention not only from climate change researchers but also rural and urban development policy makers in the recent decades. Thus to contribute to the betterment of understanding of this social phenomenon and to provide with empirical evidence that could aid planning of adaptation strategies to future environmental changes in Mongolia, this paper presents a retrospective in-depth investigation of environmental factors of migration among urban migrants in Ulaanbaatar, who, before immigrating to the city, were traditional rural pastoralists in some of the most weather extreme prone regions in the country. Theorizing migration as one of possible adapting strategies taken by a household as a response to environmental changes, this study explores similarities and differences in forms of migration among households (vulnerable migration versus resilient migration), elements that have enabled successful migration (different forms of capital) and urban integration issues after settlement in the city. The study emphasizes on two major occurrences of drought and drought-related winter disasters since a major socio-political shift in the country - democratization in the 1990s.

### P-2242-02

#### Small Island Developing States, Sea Level Rise and Migration: Exploring Sovereignty and Resource Rights in Abandoned Nations

**D. Carey (1); A. Fuentes, (2)**

(1) University of Waterloo, Geography and Environmental Management, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; (2) University of Waterloo, Geography and environmental management, Waterloo, Canada

Small island developing states constitute the world's most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change. Countries such as Tuvalu face the very real risk of permanent abandonment within the next century as a result of sea level rise. The social, political and legal implications of migrants from vanishing countries is currently an area of intense research. Aspects such as retained sovereignty and self-governance in foreign lands are being explored at length. What is largely being overlooked, however, are implications of resource ownership within the borders of what could be described as an abandoned country. If the sovereign governing capacity of a nation collapses with the abandonment of said nation, do they retain formerly established resource rights, or do they become subject to
laws of the high seas? To date, there is no legal answer to this question. To address these matters, as well as those of sovereign governing within a foreign nation, we propose that nations willing to host migrants work to establish a legal framework which mirrors the self-government agreements employed between Canada and First Nations populations. To make this relationship agreeable and beneficial to the host nation, we recommend that the government of the island set to be abandoned agree to cede or share resource rights within the territory waters of the abandoned nation.

## P-2242-03

### Changements climatiques et la Migration dans les régions de Mopti et de Sikasso

NP. Cisse (1); OK. Famagani (2)

(1) Institut Supérieur de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée (ISFRA), Sciences Humaines et Sociales, Bamako, Mali; (2) Faculté d'Histoire et de Géographie, USSG, Bamako, Fhg, Bamako, Mali

Cette étude a porté sur les communes de Dourou, dans le cercle de Bandiagara (Région de Mopti) située en zone soudano sahélienne, avec une pluviométrie moyenne annuelle de 477mm et de Kouro, dans le cercle de Sikasso (Région de Sikasso) en zone soudano guinéenne où les précipitations moyennes annuelles sont supérieures à 1 300 millimètres. L'approche méthodologique s'est appuyée sur une recherche documentaire, la réalisation d'enquêtes quantitative et qualitative.

Les résultats ont révélé que les populations des zones enquêtées ont une perception négative de l'évolution des facteurs climatiques, au cours des 20 dernières années: diminution de la pluviométrie, hausse des températures et augmentation de la force des vents.

Les conséquences de cette péjoration climatique sont multiples et diverses: diminution de la fertilité des sols avec pour corollaire la baisse de la production agricole; diminution des ressources en eau (tarissement précoce des points et cours d'eau et leur ensablement), diminution du l'effectif du chéptel et des pâturages, etc.

Face à ces effets néfastes des changements climatiques, les populations ont développé plusieurs stratégies d'adaptation dont l'organisation des départs des membres de la famille, à l'intérieur (exode rural) comme à l'extérieur (migration internationale).

Les résultats ont montré que la commune de Dourou, à l'instar du plateau Dogon, est une zone traditionnelle d'émigration orientée surtout vers le Ghana et la Côte d'Ivoire. Les migrations, observées au niveau interne dans la commune de Dourou, sont fait d'une volonté manifestée d'aller aux ressources encore disponibles dans les zones d'accueil. Par contre, dans la commune de Kouro, cercle de Sikasso (zone de forte immigration interne), une rétrocession négative lie cette immigration aux effets néfastes des changements climatiques sur les ressources naturelles. D'où de nouveaux départs des populations de cette commune vers les zones aurifères et les grandes villes à l'intérieur du pays.

Les changements climatiques qui se sont amplifiés de 1970 à 1990, ont renforcé ces migrations internes. Comprendre le lien entre changement climatique et migration consiste à appréhender les facteurs d'accroissement de la migration et d'en évaluer les conséquences, les opportunités d'anticipation pour atténuer les mouvements de populations.

En vue de minimiser les effets néfastes des changements climatiques et des flux migratoires, les populations ont développé certaines stratégies qui son entre autres :

* Le développement des activités générales de revenus (AGR) ;

* La création de cantines scolaires dans les écoles pour diminuer la déperdition scolaire par la migration ;

* L'utilisation des semences améliorées plus adaptées ;

* la réglementation de la coupe du bois et le développement de bonnes pratiques de gestion des ressources naturelles pour fixer les populations sur leurs terres d'origine.

Mots clés : changements climatiques, migrations, vulnérabilité, stratégies endogènes d'adaptation...

## P-2242-04

Climate change, human mobility and disaster risk reduction: The contributions of international law and pathways for implementation post-2015

A. Kron (1) ; S. Atapattu (1) ; K. Lofts (1)

(1) Centre for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Tens of millions of people are displaced each year due to natural disasters. [1] As the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and slow-onset disasters such as drought increase due to climate change, rates of migration are set to rise further.

The inter-relatedness of climate change and migration has been emphasised in academic scholarship and public policy for a number of years. At the 2011 Nansen Conference, the Special Representative to the Secretary-General (SRSG) on disaster risk reduction, Margareta Wahlström, noted in her capacity as Chairperson that “[c]limate change acts as an impact multiplier and accelerator to other drivers of human mobility”. [2] Indeed, the draft negotiation text for a new instrument on climate change contains a call for a climate change displacement coordination facility as part of the loss and damage section.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) can also provide means to prevent displacement (e.g. through early warning systems), and to mitigate the effects of such displacement. [3] As there is no UN organ dealing exclusively with migration, it is important that entities such as the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) contribute to furthering displacement issues, particularly in regards to disasters, which account for the majority of those forcibly displaced around the globe.

The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 strives to promote a culture of proactive measures in regards to DRR. [4] As the present Hyogo Framework will expire in 2015, UNISDR has been tasked with facilitating the development of a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. Thus, a new Hyogo Framework will be adopted at the World Disaster Conference in 2015 and then put forward to the General Assembly. [5] The Hyogo Framework is referred to in the proposed text for the Sustainable Development Goals, [6] and SRSG Wahlström has also emphasized the importance of such cross-fertilization. [7]

Scholars such as Elizabeth Ferris have proposed suggestions on climate change, resettlement and planned relocation, drawing upon e.g. the rules relating to development-forced displacement and resettlement. These considerations are partly reflected in the zero draft for a new Hyogo Framework, which calls for “regular disaster preparedness exercises, including evacuation drills”, [8] and in the negotiating text at the UNFCCC.

This presentation aims to examine the establishment and implementation of the new frameworks on DRR and climate change from an international legal perspective, looking specifically at the rights of displaced persons. A particular focus will be placed on internal displacement caused by climate change. First, this submission will analyse the existing obligations relating to migration and climate change, including voluntary mechanisms for human mobility and planned relocations. Second, it will cover methods of implementation, including good practices, monitoring, and the importance of reliable data. Lastly, it will feature some concluding remarks and potential areas for future research.

[1] Development of the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Zero draft submitted by the co-Chairs of the Preparatory Committee, 20 October 2014, [Zero draft], Preambular para 3. See also Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disasters, September 2014, p 7.

[2] Chairperson's summary, The Nansen Conference on Climate Change and Displacement in the 21st Century, Oslo, 6-7 June 2011.

[3] On early warning systems, see Asplet, Mike, Handbook for Parliamentarians. Internal Displacement: Responsibility and Action, Handbook no. 20 2013, IPU-UNHCR, p 58.
[4] UNISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Extract from the final report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6), para 13 (i).

[5] UN General Assembly, Resolution 68/211, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Resolution, 20 December 2013, UN Doc. A/RES/68/211.

[6] See proposed Sustainable Development Goal 11, target 9.

[7] UNISDR, Proposed Elements for Consideration in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 17 December 2013, see e.g paras 13–15.

[8] Zero draft, para 31 c.

P-2242-05

# Migration and climate change in rural Africa

E. Massetti (1); C. Cattaneo (2)

(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America; (2) FEEM, Milan, Italy

We study how climate affects migration decisions of households in Ghana and Nigeria. If migration is part of the present adaptation portfolio of households to different climatic conditions, it is reasonable to expect that it will also be an adaptation to climate change. Thus, we also provide estimates of the expected impact of future climate change on migration in Ghana and Nigeria.

It is important to stress that we are interested in climate --- the average of weather conditions over a long period of time --- rather than in short-term weather fluctuations, which represent single realizations of climate. Our approach accounts for the long-run weather adaptation response to climate. The existing literature has instead mainly focused on the relationship between weather variability as well as weather extreme shocks, such as flood or drought, and migration. Overall this literature suggests that out-migration is a common response to agricultural productivity losses due to harmful weather events. The analysis of migration response to weather variation and shocks is a very interesting area of research but estimated elasticities should not be used to provide estimates of the response to slowly changing climate patterns.

In this paper we instead regress long-run migration patterns of households on climatic conditions and on other control variables. The advantage of this method is that it fully accounts for adaptation to the present climate. Migration is one of the many possible adaptations to local climatic conditions. The method thus identifies the relationship between climate and migration by exploiting the cross-section variation of climate and of long run migration decisions.

What is the expected shape of the relationship between climate and migration? It is reasonable to assume that with less favorable climatic conditions the incentive to migrate increases. However, migration is an expensive investment and it may be too costly for some households. High temperatures and extreme precipitation patterns reduce agricultural productivity in presence of agricultural adaptation for many reasons. However, migration is a costly investment. Climate change may increase the incentive to migrate but with incomplete and imperfect markets households may not be able to migrate because they may see a reduction in the very capital required to enable a move. Thus, given these different channels, working in opposite direction, the relationship between climate and migration decisions deserves an empirical analysis.

In this paper we narrow our focus on Ghana and Nigeria. The data are drawn from two different household surveys that gather individual as well as household information. We heavily rely on the predictions of the New Economics of Labor. Migration, introduced by Mark and Bloome (1985), which emphasizes the role played by the family in migration decisions. Migration of some individuals respond to an overall family strategy, designed to adapt to current climatic conditions.

Our results reveal that the relationship between the probability that at least one member of the household

is a migrant and temperature in the dry season is hill-shaped. A hill-shaped relationship results as well between precipitation in the wet season and migration. The highest propensity to migrate is at 23°C during the dry season and at 125 mm/month of precipitation during the wet season. This relationship holds only for households that are engaged in farming activities. The empirical findings reveal that migration decisions of non-farming households are not affected by climate. Our findings are robust to a series of alternative model specifications. Households located in districts with mild temperatures/precipitations have a positive chance to become migrant families if temperatures/precipitations increase. On the contrary, in districts with already high temperature/precipitations, the reverse occurs. Mild temperatures/precipitations benefit agricultural productivity and makes migration more likely. On the contrary, for higher levels of temperatures/ precipitations households may be caught in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape, as a consequence of productivity losses. We also calculate non-marginal changes of migration using geographically and seasonally differentiated climate change scenarios.

P-2242-06

# The Role of Climate Change for Migration in the Past, Present and Future

I. Schumacher (1); JF. Maystadt (2); E. Strobl (3)

(1) IPAG Business School, Paris, France; (2) University of Lancaster, Lancaster, United Kingdom; (3) Ecole Polytechnique, Economics, Paris, France

In this article we investigate the changing role of climate change as a driver of migration. We take a temporal perspective, where we analyze why and how climate change affected incentives to migrate in the past, how it affects incentives to migrate in the present, and what this may tell us about how climate change may impact incentives to migrate in the future. Our focus is on economic determinants of incentives to migrate, and how climate change alters these economic determinants.

To this we add a meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration, where we study the determinants of migration and climate change in the literature. We single out roughly 60 articles that look at climate change as a driver of human migration. In particular, we focus on the common issues of publication bias, and as to what kind of datasets and variables tend to be the most informative.

P-2242-07

# International migration and climate change impact: a macro-economic assessment for SLR

G. Standardi (1)

(1) FEEM - Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy

The relationship between climate change and migration has been poorly understood in the literature (Stern, 2013; Licker and Oppenheimer, 2013). Different methodologies have been used producing different outcomes (Beine and Parsons, 2012; Marchiori and Schumacher, 2011; Morteux and Barnet, 2009; Sheen and Gemennine, 2011). The aim of this work is to show under which economic conditions climate change can cause international migration and to what extent international migration can be beneficial or detrimental to reduce the economic losses of climate impacts.

To achieve this goal we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is calibrated to the Narayanan Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Narayanan et al., 2012) for the year 2007. Differently from the GTAP macro-economic model (Hertel, 1997) we make possible for labor to move outside the borders of ten large macro-regions: Europe (EU), North America (NA), Asia (Asia), Latin America (LA), Former Soviet Union (FSU), China (Chi), India (Ind), Rest of Asia (RoA), Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Oceania and Japan (OJ). The physical impacts stem from the DIVA software (Hinkel and Klein, 2009). DIVA is a widespread tool which computes the land loss caused by Sea Level Rise (SLR) at a very high geographical resolution. The cumulative land loss in Km2 (Submergence plus erosion) from 2007 to 2100 for each one of the ten regions is divided by the total amount of land in these regions in 2007. We use these ratios as
negative productivity shocks affecting the use of both capital and labor in the CGE model.

In order to build a reliable economic and demographic scenario at the end of the century, we rely on the projections of GDP and population provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). We have two cases. In the first one the labor is completely immobile at the macro-regional level while in the second one we model an integrated global labor market. The migration process is entirely determined by the movements of workers who react to the relative wage signals induced by climate change.

The results show a world SLR economic loss around 2.64% of global 2007 GDP under the assumption of immobile labor and a SLR economic loss around 2.59% under the assumption of mobile labor. Table 1 reports results. Rest of Asia is the most affected region by SLR but interestingly some regions as China, FSU, SSA and MENA gain from SLR. Except Rest of Asia, Latin America and India all the regions are able to decrease their economic losses or to increase their gains when the labor is more mobile at the international level. We observe a migration process mainly from Rest of Asia to the other macro-regions. It is worth noting that we do not consider within-region migration.

All this suggests that the international migration driven by a more flexible and integrated global labor market could represent a useful adaptation strategy option to slightly reduce the economic impact of SLR even if it cannot substitute in any way the adoption of strong mitigation policy to trim down damages, especially in the Rest of Asia.

<table><thead><tr><th>Table 1</th><th>% Productivity loss on labor and capital</th><th>% GDP change (labor mobility)</th><th>% GDP change (labor immobility)</th><th>Net migration flow (Millions)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>OJ</td><td>-0.99</td><td>-1.05</td><td>-0.73</td><td>0.25</td></tr><tr><td>Chi</td><td>-0.79</td><td>1.24</td><td>2.13</td><td>9.57</td></tr><tr><td>Ind</td><td>-1.71</td><td>-2.66</td><td>-2.96</td><td>0.91</td></tr><tr><td>RoA</td><td>-4.88</td><td>-25.32</td><td>-30.48</td><td>-32.55</td></tr><tr><td>NA</td><td>-0.92</td><td>-1.22</td><td>-0.77</td><td>0.86</td></tr><tr><td>LA</td><td>-1.28</td><td>-4.19</td><td>-4.36</td><td>0.34</td></tr><tr><td>EU</td><td>-1.75</td><td>-2.74</td><td>-2.68</td><td>-0.75</td></tr><tr><td>MENA</td><td>-0.35</td><td>3.34</td><td>4.39</td><td>5.17</td></tr><tr><td>SSA</td><td>-0.27</td><td>4.11</td><td>6.16</td><td>13.43</td></tr><tr><td>FSU</td><td>-0.33</td><td>3.58</td><td>4.81</td><td>2.77</td></tr><tr><td>World</td><td></td><td>-2.64</td><td>-2.59</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

## Ecological and social aspects of the Arctic zone of Yakutia, Russia

N. Stepanova (1); G. Tuyara (1); N. Bochkarev (2)

(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia; (2)

Yakut Scientific Center, Yakutsk, Russia

Migration loss of population is characteristic for Siberia and Far East of Russia and is especially influenced Arctic zone. Number of population in Yakutia had shortened for 15% during 1990-2013, while in the Arctic districts of Yakutia - twice (for 53%). In 90-ies migration generally touched non-indigenous population who had migrated to other regions of Russia. Nowadays the internal migration prevails; people from the Arctic districts move to the ones with more comfortable climate and economic conditions and better jobs opportunities.

The fall of industrial production and quantity of population in Arctic had shortened the volume of pollution emissions caused by stationary sources in this area. In 1990-2009 it was reduced twice. In 1990 Arctic zone expel 21% of pollution emissions of the Republic Sakha (Yakutia), today it is only 12% of total mission in Yakutia. But because of the extremely low temperatures and massive permafrost occurrence the potential of Arctic nature to self-healing is low.

Today the main source of pollution is the living-support system, including heating system, transport, especially big vehicles which supplies Arctic zone with goods and fuels using winter roads. Housing and communal system in Arctic is characterized by high costs and low effectiveness, the huge disperse inhabited territory, isolated from the united energy supply system. Distances between populated localities in Arctic are about 600-700 km., heating period lasts from 223 to 365 days. Heating is organized by the low power disjointed boilers (with powers less than 2 Gkal/hour). These low efficiency boilers increase antropogenius environment pollution. Arctic districts heating system runs-out up to 80% and heat losses in the system are about 32%.

Arctic area deficits productive forces for neutralizing stationary sources pollutions. In Yakutia in general the level of neutralized pollution with regard to the level of its emission lowered from 75,9% in 1990 to 64,8% in 2009. While in the Arctic zone this figure started in 1990 lower, only with 15,7% and reached 6,6% in 2009. The same situation is observed in draining water downthrow: in Yakutia volume of draining down throw is about 60%, while in Arctic zone there are now water cleaning facilities.

The decentralized energy systems modernization strategy of the North and Arctic zone focuses on the projects in alternative energy sources, automation of heating system. But nowadays it can hardly be implemented due to the limited access to the imported equipments and technologies, as well as to the local budget deficits. This situation can stay fixed for the several years.

Before soviet period Arctic was poorly inhabited territory with the extreme climate and poor food resources. This land cannot feed many people, and there were now huge settlements, people were spread over the territory for they can feed themselves by hunting and fishing. Thaw the antropogenius pressure was low. Beside innovation and new technologies usage for the Arctic development it is necessary to determine the quantity of population limits in this area. It will allow making decisions in economic and social policy in this area. It is probably necessary to move people from the depressive districts of Arctic zone to more comfortable once.