and cost the economy US$ 0.8–1.2 billion.

Trees provide various ecosystem services that build resilient social-ecological systems through (i) providing biological products such as fruit, browse for livestock, medicines for human and livestock, oils, construction materials, woodfuel and gums and resins, (ii) supporting services of soil fertility management, soil moisture and biodiversity, (iii) regulating services on macro and micro climate and quality, (iv) provision and water regulation and (iv) cultural services. The loss of trees under climate change is of great concern to the country which has retained only 2% forest cover.

One of the drivers of tree loss is the unsustainable woodfuel sector. Over 80% of households in rural areas and 70% of households nationally depend on firewood. Charcoal ranks second as a source of cooking energy in Kenya and is used by 82% of urban and 34% of rural households; and most of it comes from the drylands. Trees on-farm provides cooking energy hence saving women and girl's time and drudgery in traveling long distances in search of firewood and reducing household expenditure. Recycling organic by-products into briquettes generate income and employment for women and youth and the product burns cleaner and longer. Improved cook stoves generate income from sales of wood, save fuel and time, reduce emissions and some produce charcoal as by-product. As such scaling-up the following local innovations will reinforce resilient livelihoods and ecosystems through tree-based energy: (i) wood energy production through short rotational forestry, farmer managed natural regeneration, coppyce management, intercropping trees with crops or pasture, (ii) briquetting agricultural, tree and municipal organic by-products, (iii) improved cooking technologies (iv) large-scale gasification of biomass for agro-forestry (84%), biomass in trust lands (8%) and gazetted forests (8%). Kenya is a relatively dry country, with approximately 80% of total land area defined as arid and semi-arid. The current status of much dry land forest resources is the direct result of wasteful practices and degradation, from overgrazing, overexploitation of trees for the acquisition of firewood and charcoal particularly in the close vicinity of towns and refugee camps.

## O-2235-02

# A Community based initiative of afforestation for charcoal production: Case study Siaya County, Kenya

N. Oduor (1); J. Maua, (2)

(1) Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Forest Products Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Kakamega sub-centre, Kakamega, Kenya

It is estimated in Kenya that about 90% of rural households use firewood either as firewood or charcoal with firewood meeting the energy needs of over 93% of rural household, and the charcoal being the dominant fuel in urban households. Besides being the most common cooking fuel for the majority of Kenyan households, fuelwood is also an important energy source for small-scale rural industries such as tobacco curing, tea drying, brick making, fish smoking, and bakeries, amongst others. The principal sources of fuelwood are agro-forestry (84%), biomass in trust lands (8%) and gazetted forests (8%). Kenya is a relatively dry country, with approximately 80% of total land area defined as arid and semi-arid. The current status of much dry land forest resources is the direct result of wasteful practices and degradation, from overgrazing, overexploitation of trees for the acquisition of firewood and charcoal particularly in the close vicinity of towns and refugee camps.

Currently, there is a growing imbalance between supply and demand of biomass energy. In 2012, the firewood and charcoal demand stood at 18,702,748m3 and 16,325,810m3 respectively against an estimated supply of 13,654,022m3 and 7,358,717m3. The principal drivers of biomass energy demand are population growth, lack of access to energy substitutes and the growing incidence of poverty among Kenyans. This biomass energy supply and demand imbalance is exerting considerable pressure on the remaining forest and vegetation stocks, thereby accelerating the processes of land degradation and desertification. In addition, the production of biomass energy poses a threat to competing land use systems such as agriculture, forestry and human settlements.

Initiatives of reforestation and afforestation are being carried out to mitigate this deficit, mitigate the effects of climate change and to raise the total land area in Kenya

under forest to 10%. This paper gives the experiences of a community approximation project in Siaya County that was started in 2002 using Acacia xanthophloea and A. Polycantha species. Research was carried out on the optimal tree spacing, wood yields, efficient production of charcoal and the optimal age for charcoaling. Spacing trials of 1m X 1m; 1.8m X 1.8m; 2m X 2m; 2.5m X 2.5m, 3m X 3m up to 4m X 2m and 4.5m X 1m were set up. Three efficient charcoal kilns were used (half orange klin, 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m) and lastly the optimal age for charcoaling was determined by charcoaling the two Acacia species aged 4 and 6 years old.

The optimal tree spacing (where it allowed selective harvesting - not clear falling) was 2.5m X 2.5m. The total biomass estimation based on diameter and height was calculated as 0.0006x where x is (dbh² x ht), R2 = 0.8374. The optimal age was four times the age where the weight of the same volume of charcoal increased by 10kg.

The current estimated area of land under acacia is 240 hectares with an estimated yield of 100 tons of round wood or 30 tons of charcoal per hectare under six years rotation. The number of farmers who have set aside land sizes ranging from 0.5 – 3 acres (0.21 – 1.25 Ha) for wood lots, now stand at 545.

## O-2235-03

# Are we ready to scale-out climate-smart agriculture in South Asia?

P. Aggarwal (1); KC. Arun (1); B. Pareesh (1); M. Jat (2); P. Thornton (3); A. Jarvis (4)

(1) CCAFS, IWMI, New Delhi, India; (2) CIMMYT, New Delhi, India; (3) ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya; (4) CIAT, Cali, Colombia

Recent IPCC report and several other studies indicate a probability of 10–40% loss in crop production in India and other countries of South Asia with increases in temperature by 2070–2100 and decrease in irrigation water unless steps are now started to increase our adaptive capacity. There could be significant losses in some crops such as wheat even in short-term. Droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heavy precipitation events, hot extremes, and heat waves are known to negatively impact agricultural production, and farmers’ livelihood. The projected increase in these events will result in greater instability in food production and threaten livelihood security of farmers. Increased production variability could perhaps be the most significant impact of global impact change. Early signs of decrease in yields due to changing weather have started becoming visible.

Several technological, institutional and policy interventions have been proposed that can help us adapt to climate change as well as to current and future weather variability. These include similar adaptation practices such as change in planting dates and crop varieties. Additional strategies for increasing our adaptive capacity include bridging yield gaps to augment production, deployment of adverse climate tolerant genotypes and diversified land use systems, the use of solar irrigation, assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks through providing weather linked value-added advisory services to farmers and crop/weather insurance, and improved land and water use management practices. It is interesting to note that most of the proposed adaptation options, if implemented scientifically, come with large mitigation co-benefits.

CCAFS is scaling out the Climate-Smart Villages (CSVs) model in several countries, including in South Asia, to promote climate-smart agriculture (CSA). Climate Smart Villages are sites where a portfolio of the most appropriate technological and institutional interventions, determined by the local community, are implemented to increase food production, enhance adaptive capacity and reduce emissions. Interventions are bespoke to each village but the concept lends itself to be applied in any region under the right circumstances. Initial results suggest a large potential to maximize synergies among different interventions in order to scale out CSA.

While most of these interventions have indeed shown increased production, resilience and even mitigation, their area coverage is still small. This paper argues that evidence base for many of these interventions is still limited and we need enough context specific targeted knowledge about them before they can be applied on a large scale. In addition, lack of appropriate 'business models' around
these interventions limits scaling-out efforts.

## O-2235-04

# The impact of bioenergy development on the climate resilience of vulnerable communities in Kenya

### S. Abrar (1)

(1) Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

The purpose of this project is to examine whether bioenergy developments have an impact on the climate resilience of vulnerable communities in Kenya. Interviews were conducted with professionals and several projects and programmes were visited on site. The research, based on evidence, shows that traditional use of solid biomass, which is the most popular source of energy in Kenya, is believed to have a negative impact on climate resilience. However, more research and projects visited have also demonstrated that, in certain conditions and under specific circumstances, bioenergy developments can reveal strong climate resilience characteristics. If they cannot by themselves improve considerably the resilience to climate change, some of them, when combined with measures and initiatives aimed at improving the life of the most vulnerable, do achieve this purpose. This study also demonstrates, once again, how important for any project programme technology to address the specific needs and tastes of the populations they intend to serve and how engagement, empowerment and ownership by the communities is key to achieve success. A higher consideration and respect for local cultures and ways of living, promoting a grass-—root approach, encouraging collective actions through capacity building and awareness raising, and finally providing financial and political support, will help generate more suitable and targeted technologies and programmes, including those related to bioenergy, that would improve the climate resilience of vulnerable communities in Kenya and elsewhere.

## O-2235-05

# Multiple benefits of biochar: Synergism or trade offs

### E. Yeboah (1)

(1) CSIR-Soil Research Institute, Microbiology, Kumasi, Ghana

Poor soil fertility is a key constraint to improving farm productivity and farmer livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. The search for sustainable soil management practices is still on. Biochar, a pyrolysed biomass in recent years has gained international recognition to improve soil productivity. There are however limited research on biochar in Ghana to warrant government policy. A field study was conducted in the major season of 2012 in the semi-deciduous forest zone and the Guinea savanna agroecological zones of Ghana. The objective was to determine soil management scenarios that will enhance the beneficial effect of biochar application to soils. The treatment were no control amendments, 2 t/ha biochar and 4 t/ha biochar. Each main treatment received 0, 30, 60 and 90 KgN/ha. The test crop was maize. 4 t/ha biochar + 90K kgN/ha increased maize yield indices across sites. Biochar increased N use efficiency and improved gravimetric soil moisture contents across sites. The synergistic effect rather than tradeoffs of the biochar technology to address energy use of the smaller holder farmer through the use of efficient cookstoves, the bio-physical constraints in the context of soil improvements to increase food security, soil carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation as well as the socioeconomic constraints of the smaller holder farmers needs to be explored for wider adoption of the biochar technology.

## O-2235-06

# Moving from climate vulnerability to Resilience: a case study of Bangladesh

### S. Huq (1)

(1) International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Bangladesh has been identified well over a decade ago as being one of the most vulnerable countries to the potential

adverse impacts of human induced climate change. Over the last decade the country has been one of the first of the Least developed Countries (LDCs) to carry out their National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) as mandated by the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as it's 7th Conference of Parties (COP7) held in Marrakech, Morocco in 2001 under the Marrakech Accords, which provided technical assistance and financial support to the LDCs for carrying out the NAPAs.

Subsequently the Government of Bangladesh built on the NAPA which was only meant to identify urgent and immediate adaptation actions, to develop a more elaborate and longer-term Bangladesh climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSUP) which has six pillars and forty actions. These actions have been funded by creating two Climate Change funds, one with the Government of Bangladesh's own finances and the other with donors contributions. Both the funds together have now funded over three hundred projects to tackle climate change. While most of them are adaptation related a few are also mitigation. Related as mitigation was one of the six pillars of the BCCSUP.

Thus over the last decade Bangladesh, including the government itself as other stakeholders, which is civil society, universities, media and private sector have already invested in various activities to tackle climate change and as a result have climbed up a knowledge ladder that enhances the collective understanding of what is needed. The latest development in this journey of tackling the adverse impacts of climate Change is to focus on Resilience as opposed to Vulnerability, so, while the focus until now had been on identifying vulnerability and helping to build adaptive capacity it has now moved to identifying underlying technical issues of resilience and the annual damage from extreme-weather related events rose from $20b to 150b, totalling close to US$2 trillion, of which only 124 was insured. Examples include floods in Bangladesh and Thailand, typhoons in the Caribbean and droughts in the West African Sahel and Horn of Africa. Poor people and nations have been particularly vulnerable to the impacts of these events; people living in countries with a low Human Development Index make up only 11% of those exposed to hazards but account for 53% of disaster mortality.

## O-2235-07

# Building resilience in dryland Africa

### C. Toulmin (1)

(1) IIED, London, United Kingdom

This presentation outlines IIED's experience on building resilience in dryland Africa. Drawing on a range of field sites, we show the timeframe and process for strengthening local capacity in decision-making, in ways which provide sound public investment choice. Between 1980 and 2012, it is reckoned that the annual damage from extreme-weather related events rose from $20b to 150b, totalling close to US$2 trillion, of which only 124 was insured. Examples include floods in Bangladesh and Thailand, typhoons in the Caribbean and droughts in the West African Sahel and Horn of Africa. Poor people and nations have been particularly vulnerable to the impacts of these events; people living in countries with a low Human Development Index make up only 11% of those exposed to hazards but account for 53% of disaster mortality.

Even if we manage to cut greenhouse gas emissions rapidly and effectively from today, we must anticipate 20-30 years of growing impacts from climate change due to lags in the global atmospheric system (IPCC, 2014). Drought, floods, and heat waves are all likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. The impact of tropical storms and associated sea surges will be amplified by sea-level rise. Disaster preparedness is key to help minimise loss of life and property, as well as speeding recovery post-disaster. "Resilience" has become a widely used term to describe the quality of human-environment systems and their response to disaster. In the recent study by the Royal Society of building resilience to extreme weather events, resilience is taken as "encompassing more than merely coping with individual extreme events or events, which means looking at the capacity of individuals, communities and systems to not only survive, but also adapt and grow in the face of stress and shocks." While "resilience" has spawned an increasing number of definitions, essentially it refers to our ability to deal with changes, in terms reducing the risk of a hazard, and minimising the subsequent impacts.

Building resilience to extreme weather needs a systems approach, which involves investing in a combination
of technical, economic/financial, and institutional dimensions. When faced with a threat such as drought or flooding, the first instinct is to invest in hardware – such as dams to capture and store water for dry periods, or sea-walls to protect from floodwater. And such tangible infrastructure is clearly very important. But alongside such investment in the physical hardware of protection, there are a range of vital intangible investments needed in the software of institutions for managing variable resources, and sharing risk. Institutions may be invisible, but their strength can make a big difference in how societies cope with disaster. Building resilience also requires shared action and responsibility at local, national and international levels, by the public and private sectors, local communities and non-governmental organisations. We will use the case of northern Kenya, Mali and Senegal to illustrate this systems approach, and the role that different actors need to play.

## 2235-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2235-01

#### Adaptive Resilience as an integrative concept for understanding and managing the response of ecosystems to multiple disturbances and changes

WL. Kutsch (1); E. Falge (2); C. Brümmer, (2); R. Scholes (3); C. Schmullius, (4); T. Thiel-Clemen (5); W. Twine, (6) (G. Midgeley, (7)

(1) 10 Integrated Biomass Observation System (ICOS) RI, Head Office, Helsinki, Finland; (2) Thunen Institute for Climate Smart Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany; (3) University of Witwatersrad, Johannesburg, South Africa; (4) Friedrich-Schiller-Universität, Jena, Germany; (5) University of Appleseed Sciences, Hamburg, Germany; (6) University of Witwatersrad, Johannesburg, South Africa; (7) Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Nowadays, many ecosystems are affected by multiple kinds of disturbances and changes on different time scales: one might be the strong disturbance by land use (e.g. harvest of the woody biomass in forests, grazing) or land use change (mainly conversion to agricultural land); the second, slower and more a change than a disturbance is climate change, caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Higgins et al. 2010). Climate change results in a variety of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, but also higher probability of extreme weather events. These changes may massively influence biogeochemical cycles as well as the balance between species.

Based on this, it can be hypothesized that many ecosystems, even if they are very resilient, may not return to their initial state after disturbance, but will rather adapt to a new steady-state (e.g. associated with the intermediate change in climate). We can name this phenomenon «Adaptive Resilience of Ecosystems». It can be used as a further development of classical resilience concept and use it as base for integrative research and management concepts. This is outlined with the example of semi-ard savanna ecosystems.

### P-2235-02

#### Climate vulnerability of the supply chain: methodological review

A. Miola (1); E. Valeria (2)

(1) EU Joint Research Center for Environment and Sustainability, Climate risk management unit, ispra, Italy; (2) Liverpool Hope University, Business school, Liverpool, United Kingdom

The increasing complexity of the present economic system and the strong interdependences existing between production activities taking place in different world areas make modern societies vulnerable to crisis. The global supply-chain is a paradigmatic example of economic structures on which the impacts of unexpected events propagate rapidly through the system. Climate change, which affects societies all over the world, is one of the most important factors influencing the efficiency of the present economic networks. During the last decades a large set of studies have been oriented to investigate the

direct impacts generated on specific geographical areas or productions. However, a smaller number of analyses have been oriented to quantify the cascading economic effects generated all over the world. The great complexity of the global economic system, coupled with methodological and data gaps makes it difficult to estimate the domino effects of unexpected events. A clear understanding of the possible consequences generated all over the world is, however, a fundamental step to build socio-economic resilience and to plan effective adaptation strategies. Within this context, the main objective of the present report is to provide an overview of the main studies, methodologies and databases used to investigate the climate vulnerability of the global supply chain. This information can be useful to i) support further studies, ii) to build consistent quantification methodologies, and iii) to fill the possible data gap.

### P-2235-03

#### Testing and Piloting Climate Smart technologies in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral systems; The case of Ijara sub-county, Garissa County in Kenya

E. Okiri (1); M. Okoti (2)

(1) Kenya Agricultural Livestock Research Organization, Environment and Climate Change, NAIROBI, Kenya; (2) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Environment and Climate Change Research, Nairobi, Kenya

Ijara is one of the six sub-counties that form the Garissa County in North-Eastern Kenya; it falls into agro-ecological zone V-VI: temperatures ranging from 15°C – 38°C and rainfall is bimodal ranging between 700–1000 mm per annum. The average relative humidity is 68%. The sub-county covers an area of 10,000 km², with more than 90% of the land as trust land. The population within the sub-county was estimated at 100,000 during the 2009 national population census, with a population growth rate of 3.7%, while the poverty index stood at 63% with over 90% of households depending on pastoralism. The main economic livelihood of the inhabitants of Garissa County is livestock keeping. The pastoral households face a number of challenges that constrain their ability to employ productive systems effectively. These include among others population growth; the allocation of land for other purposes such as agriculture and wildlife conservation; inadequate infrastructure such as roads and rail dams; poor planning resulting in haphazard creation of water points; insecurity in Somalia; unsustainable management of land, water and other natural resources; and deteriorating livestock management practices. These issues are exacerbated by climate change, which has led to environmental degradation such as loss of biodiversity and soil erosion. Climate change is also a driver of poor resource management, as people resort to increasingly unsustainable coping strategies such as charcoal production to manage recurrent shocks to their livelihoods. To deal with challenges affecting major livelihoods in the county and to reinforce the resilience of the community, the Kenya Agricultural Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) and International Development Research Centre (IDRC) project used various approaches including reconnaissance surveys; Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, including downsizing of climate information; and participatory identification of viable adaptation options. These adaptation options were piloted through farmer field schools. The project also organized field days and exchange visits in fodder production and livestock management as part of stakeholder capacity building, with a mix of adaptation options to establish pastures at the individual farm level. The downscaled climatic information indicates that Ijara sub-county is getting warmer. This coupled with increased climate variability implies that planning for appropriate adaptation options is mandatory. In order to counter the expected loss of livestock and subsequent livelihoods, a mix of adaptation options needs to be put in place in the sub-county. A key option is the establishment of pastures at the individual farm level. Results from the project's fodder component showed that the establishment of rain-fed Sudan grass is feasible as both a short-term and a long term adaptation strategy. The grass is highly adaptable in the region and gave an average yield of 24 tonnes/hectare/year. This can support up to 16 milking cows per year, and so can contribute greatly to food security at the household level. The benefit-cost ratio was 1.25. Socio-cultural and economic changes had negatively affected the traditional livestock management practices e.g. breeding
management. After a series of capacity building initiatives, households started putting in place measures to improve their livestock herd. These included selecting of breeding males and females; castration of excess males; avoiding the use of polled bucks; culling of one testicle males; taking care in the administration of drugs; adoption of camels as opposed to cattle - it was a cultural taboo for them to keep camels despite camels' better resilience to climate shocks compared to cattle. Study/exposure tours had a strong positive influence on agricultural technology adoption among pastoralists. From the project initiatives, the farmers' ability to perceive climate change and related climate variability was a key precondition for their choice to invest in fodder production and conservation. Demonstration and information allowed the households, and also policy makers, to make rational decisions on investment options.

P-2235-04

Three decades of changes in stream communities of France reveal ecosystem shifts and resilience mechanisms in temperate region freshwater ecosystems

K. Van Looy (1) ; M. Floury (1) ; M. Ferréol (1) ; J. Piffady, (1) ; Y. Souchon, (1)

(1) Istrea Lyon, Milieux Aquatiques Lyon, labo hydroécologique quantitative MALY, LHQ, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France

Global warming is assumed to be a threat to temperate

stream biodiversity. Still, many of the processes and mechanisms behind the predicted threats to diversity remain uncertain. We identified current trends and drivers of change for freshwater communities over a large spatial and temporal scale already revealing a strong ecosystem shift.

We analysed diversity and composition shifts in stream invertebrate communities over the last three decades in relation to geographic elements and human stressors over the French river network (circa 1000 km in longitude and latitude). We observed a 42% increase in the taxonomic richness of stream invertebrate communities, largely caused by climate change (23% purely climate-induced taxonomic richness increase). As a local mechanism, a bottom-up food web productivity response to rising temperature was responsible for this strong increase in diversity. Stochastic assembly processes (both environmental stochasticity and dispersal related stochasticity) increased the regional scale diversity, giving spatial insurance to biodiversity and lowering the risks of biotic homogenisation.

Thus, stream invertebrate communities show strong resilience to environmental changes thanks to local and regional responses of productivity changes (resource resilience), and thanks to landscape heterogeneity (refugia resilience) and dispersal processes (recruitment resilience). For the French stream invertebrate communities, up to now the resilience mechanisms seem to outweigh the predicted threats. From this knowledge emerge scenarios that enhance the temperature streams' resilience to cope with further global changes.

2236 - Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2236-01

From scenarios to policy action: exploring
transformative climate futures at national
and international levels

A.Wilkinson (1)

(1) OECD, Paris, France

Abstract not communicated

K-2236-02

Scenarios Emergent!

R. Lempert (1)

(1) RAND Corporation, Frederick s. pardee center for longer range global policy and the future human condition, Santa Monica, United States of America

Responding to climate change may require us to imagine future worlds, are both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to shift towards more favorable pathways into the future. Scenarios can play an important role in such visioning and action. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of these futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. In recent years, new decision support approaches employing new quantitative tools, now enable scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serving as inputs to it. Such approaches can significantly increase the impact of scenarios on decision-making. This talk will survey this emerging field of computer-assisted scenario design, describe some applications, suggest how the underlying concepts can inform a broad range of scenario activities, and help make scenario more impactful in shaping both incremental and transformative responses to climate change.

O-2236-01

Building and analyzing large numbers of socio-economic scenarios for decision support under uncertainty: a modelling experiment to explore the main determinants of economic growth in a carbon-constrained world

C. Guivarch (1) ; J. Rozenberg (2)

(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Paris, France; (2) World Bank, Climate Change Group Chief Economist Office, Washington DC, United States of America

Climate change poses a challenge to traditional decision making techniques due to long time scales, complex systems that couple human, technical and natural elements, and multiple uncertainties. Scenario technique is a key tool for decision making in such context. Here we demonstrate how building and analyzing databases of scenarios that explore the "uncertainty space" can bring novel insights for decision support. We do so in an illustrative study that focuses on identifying the main sources of technological and socio-economic uncertainty for indicators used for policy decision.

The relevant measure for the macroeconomic evaluation of mitigation pathways depends on the question at stake: deciding on the level of mitigation to target or choosing a strategy to meet an already fixed target. Choosing the level of greenhouse gases emissions reduction to target requires balancing mitigation costs against avoided costs from climate change damage. Both costs are usually measured by GDP or welfare losses compared to a baseline - a scenario with no mitigation and no damage. However, whether this balancing approach is appropriate for climate change is being increasingly called into question, in particular because estimates of the damage that can be caused by climate change are highly uncertain and possibly in the real of the "unavoidable". But when the stabilization target is already fixed, the design of the best strategy is better informed by absolute levels of GDP in pathways that meet the target.

We construct a modelling experiment to explore the role of a wide range of socio-economic uncertainties for the two metrics: absolute per capita GDP under mitigation scenarios and GDP losses with respect to the baseline. The modelling experiment takes the form of an analysis
of an ensemble of 648 scenarios, built with an Integrated Assessment Model that represents the interwired evolution of technical systems, energy demand behavior and economic growth. The model parameters are grouped into six parameter sets: productivity growth in the leading country, productivity catch-up in other countries, energy demand behavior, end-use energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technologies, and availability of unconventional fossil fuels. Combining alternative assumptions on the values of the parameter sets leads to 216 baselines. For each baseline, two mitigation scenarios are modeled. Both meet an exogenous emissions trajectory constricting leading to a 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050 compared to 2000. They differ in the use of the carbon tax revenues - revenues are either redistributed to households or used to reduce pre-existing taxes.

In the resulting ensemble of mitigation scenarios, we find that GDP losses and absolute GDP are not well correlated and are not determined by the same (uncertain) drivers. We identify the most important sources of uncertainty for absolute GDP in mitigation scenarios and for GDP losses with respect to the baseline, using a regression tree algorithm. We find that GDP losses against baselines are mainly determined by the design of the climate policy and the availability of low-carbon technologies whereas absolute GDP in mitigation scenarios is mainly determined by end-use energy efficiency and energy demand behavior. More generally, our modeling experiment shows that, in a context of uncertainty, GDP losses and absolute GDP are not well correlated and do not give the same insights for policy designs. Realizing the difference is important to focus on the relevant information for each type of decision.

Despite, and because of the uncertainty surrounding future damage caused by climate change, decision-makers in many places around the world have set mitigation targets in terms of concentration of greenhouse gases or temperature (at the global level), or in terms of future emissions (at national or local levels). They are now designing strategies to meet these targets. In this context where mitigation targets are already fixed, our results challenge the practice of macroeconomic evaluations of mitigation pathways that mainly focus on investigating the role of technological uncertainties for GDP losses relative to baseline scenarios. Instead, analysts and decision-makers should to devote more attention to GDP levels under a carbon constraint on the one hand, and to uncertainties on energy demand behaviors and energy efficiency on the other hand.

## O-2236-02

### From scenarios to climate action: insights from scenario-guided policy development across six global regions

J. Vervoort (1) ; M. Veeger (2) ; R. Peou (3) ; M. Muzammil (4) ; A. Palazzo (5) ; D. Mason-D'croz (6) ; S. Islam (6) ; P. Havlik (7) ; P. Thornton (8) ; C. Jost (9) ; W. Foerch (10) ; P. Kristjanson (11)

(1) University of Oxford, Cgiar program on climate change, agriculture as food security/environmental change institute, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) University for International Cooperation, San Jose, Costa Rica; (3) International Rice Research Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam; (4) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (5) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; (6) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, United States of America; (7) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (8) ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya; (9) World Food Policy Centre (ICAF), Climate Change Science Domain, Nairobi, Kenya; (10) CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, Policies and institutions for climate resilient food systems, Nairobi, Kenya; (11) World Agroforestry Centre (ICAF), Climate change science domain, Washington D.C., United States of America

Scenarios can be a powerful approach to exploring future climate and socio-economic uncertainties. However, scenarios are not strategies - instead, they provide challenging contexts for decision-making. In the face of pressing policy concerns around climate adaptation and mitigation, the need to integrate scenarios with governance and planning processes is high, and greater understanding is needed about how such links could be made effective.

We present a global research project that evaluates the

use of policy scenarios for policy development in the context of climate adaptation, socio-economic development and food security through six case studies. First, regional scenarios were developed by stakeholders in six global regions: East and West Africa, South and Southeast Asia, the Andes and Central America. Participants used a novel method for the combination of many interacting drivers in the scenarios. The scenarios were then quantified using two global agricultural economic models, IMPACT and GLOBIOM, and linked to the new global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). In each of these regions, dialogues with governments led to the identification of a number of specific national policy processes (Cambodia, Honduras, Peru, Bangladesh, Ghana, Uganda) where the process leaders welcomed the opportunity for scenario-guided policy design. For this purpose, those involved in the processes and wider groups of stakeholders used a method for re-imagining the regional scenarios to ensure a perfect fit with policy concerns. These adapted scenarios were used in detailed analyses of the policy drafts, and suggested changes were taken up into new policy drafts and taken forward toward finalization and implementation, supported by the project researchers.

To study these processes, hypotheses about best practice and indicators were formulated, with regional partners. Research results show that 1) a focus on specific policies yielded the clearest impacts; that 2) the establishment of trust between researchers and policy makers was key to ensure an effective, open process; that 3) the scenarios had to be flexible enough to be adapted for specific policy concerns but credible enough to be seen as useful; 4) that challenges associated with government turn-over and re-structuring had to be overcome and 5) that scenario-guided policy processes have to be highly transparens for those not involved to have the time to reflect on these lessons into recommendations to help respond to a widespread need for effective scenario-guided policy development.

## O-2236-03

### Social responses to climate change: What can participatory games and scenarios tell us?

J. Pardoe (1) ; M. Garschagen, (1)

(1) United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany

Climate change concerns are exceptionally pressing in agro-ecosystems, where social-ecological connections are particularly close. However, inherent climate uncertainties make anticipatory adaptation of agriculture-dependent communities particularly challenging. This paper draws on scenario analysis to show that 1) a focus on social policies decision making processes in three rural communities in West Africa may unfold as climate change progressively reveals itself.

Empirical evidence was collected using a game designed around future uncertainty with climate change. Participatory games based on scenarios provide a safe space in which to explore potential futures and the respective patterns of individual and collective decision-making. The gaming method was used specifically to understand how the social actors might respond to climate change impacts on agricultural production, paying particular attention to the ability to maintain the fundamental functions of the agro-ecosystem. The method proved particularly valuable for eliciting information on potentially negative futures that participants are otherwise reluctant to consider and discuss, due to the predominance of inherently fatalistic worldviews in the case study region. The results have revealed important insights on the role of thresholds and tipping points in decision making. These can be reached through both sudden and gradual changes, yet with significantly different implications for adaptation decisions and the consecutive system configuration.

Based on this novel method, the paper is able to make a number of contributions to the empirical and conceptual understanding of adaptation decisions in coupled social-ecological systems. Lessons can in particular be drawn on the question which role different speeds and depths of environmental change have on triggering the level and type of adaptation action. The data suggest that sudden and extreme events are more likely to trigger more reflexive and more fundamental adaptation responses than gradual environmental change. The paper also implies that applying a high risk or rigidity traps in the case study regions.
The research further allows drawing a number of methodological lessons, particularly with regards to the strengths but also weaknesses of participatory scenario methods. In order to arrive at wider conclusions, the lessons from the rural agricultural context in West Africa are juxtaposed with lessons learned in another project, where participatory scenario development has been applied by the authors in a very different setting, i.e. on adaptation trajectories in coastal megacities, jointly generated with adaptation and planning professionals. Recommendations for other researchers are formulated and amendments to the current literature discussed.

### E. Trutnevyte (1)

(1) Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research–Supply of Electricity, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Climate change mitigation requires a rapid transformation of the energy sector. Energy strategies that are both analytically sound and socially viable can lay foundation for this transformation. I will propose a set of scenario methods that enable development of such strategies to thinking narratives of stakeholders and the public (to capture the social viability component) with quantitative energy scenarios (to capture the analytical component). After discussing the limitations of the conventional story-and-simulation approach, where several narratives are represented by one quantitative scenario each (from one narrative to one scenario), I will propose three alternatives. The first approach translates normative narratives, or so-called stakeholder visions, into many scenarios (from one narrative to many scenarios). The second approach compares several narratives, based on multiple scenarios, in order to elicit commonalities and differences of the narratives (from many narratives to many scenarios). The third approach develops the narratives and scenarios simultaneously and then finds best matches (many narratives and many scenarios, side by side). These three methods will be illustrated with the cases of regional and municipal energy strategies in Switzerland, electricity system transition pathways in the UK, and risk governance process for deep geothermal power plants. I will close with reflections on the real-world impacts and stakeholder learning effects that were captured in the described studies.

## O-2236-05

### The IPCC narrative(s) – themes, actors, and storylines

K. Fløttum (1); Ø. Gjerstad, (1)

(1) University of Bergen, Department of foreign languages, Bergen, Norway

This abstract is submitted to the session «Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions»:

The IPCC has the challenging mandate to produce “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” reports related to climate change. The policy relevance, based on the most comprehensive assessment of climate change research undertaken, is condensed and presented in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers (SPM). With this as a backdrop, as well as numerous previous studies undertaken on IPCC communication (e.g. Bowman et al. 2009; Budescu et al. 2009; Budescu et al. 2014; Harris et al. 2013; Hulme 2013; Jonassen and Pielke 2011), the current paper proposes to undertake a textual and narrative analysis of the SPM of the 2014 IPCC AR5-SynthesisReport (SYR). The chosen perspective here is particularly interesting since IPCC authors themselves now have started to characterise their documents as “narratives”. We will explore to what extent the SYR-SPM corresponds to the typical narrative structure (Adam 2008), with a clear storyline or scenario comprising specific content components and actors. Our intention is to broaden the current discussion of language use in the IPCC assessment reports, by looking not only at the calibrated language for handling uncertainties set out for the IPCC authors, but also the contribution of other language and textual devices that may contribute to fulfil the communication goals of the IPCC, which are to present a consensual message to be used by policymakers.

Narratives are crucial to people's understanding of the discourse and to their potential engagement with the challenge at stake (Jones 2011, 2013). The notion of narrative has been used in a somewhat loose sense to describe a variety of texts genres. However, some research has also been done on applying the notion in a more rigorous way in order to understand to what extent there may be a storyline in texts related to climate change (Fløttum 2013; Fløttum and Dahl 2012; Fløttum and Gjerstad 2013), with a point of departure in the hypothesis that such texts can be considered as climate change narratives. This expression refers to text and talk presenting climate change as a certain type of COMPLICATION, with implicit or explicit recommendations or imperatives for ACTION(s) taking place or that should take place in order to achieve some particular EFFECT(S) or FUTURE SOLUTIONS (Adam 2008). It is this last part of the narrative which is particularly interesting to the scenario focus given to the present session – the action(s) and effect(s) components. We will further investigate how the three SPMs from Working groups 1 – 3, representing to some extent three different worlds, are combined in a new narrative in the SYR SPM. What are the themes, scenarios and ways of thinking promoted, which could prime, guide and frame audiences' appropriations of the conveyed messages?

Narratives have plots with different actors involved, in the roles of HERO, VICTIM or VILLAIN. Recent research on the concept of narrative in the policy process (Jones 2010, 2013) has found that the use of “heroes” is “particularly powerful in shaping opinion about climate change” (Shanahan et al., 2013: 456). We investigate to what extent there may be room for heroes in the SYR SPM, or whether actors such as victims and villains are the only appropriate actors in the IPCC context.

Questions to be further discussed: To what extent is there a storyline structuring the SYR-SPM? Which scenario may best promote transformational policies?

Our findings will provide a basis for discussing the potential impact of texts such as the SPMs on target audiences and for discussing links between linguistic and scenarios research, public deliberation and decisions.

## 2236-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2236-01

#### Scenarios Exploring Climate Change based on Soft Computing

A. Batisha (1)

(1) Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

The study presents an integrated view of soft computing to solve Climate Change problems. Having a collection of methodologies, soft computing may take advantage of tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty and partial truth to achieve tractability, robustness and low Climate Change solution cost. The focus is to apply the highest quality analysis in application and convergence of the areas of Fuzzy Set-Organizing, Fuzzy Set-Organizing-Maps, Evolutionary Computing, Rough Sets and other similar techniques to address Climate Change complexities that may affect Our Common Future.

Scientific communities should work more together on understanding of future climate risks, Disaster reduction and emergencies, and Hazard mitigation. Models and observations are the most important role in protecting our future climate. Especially extreme events can disrupt society. The impacts concern increased risks of coastal, river, surface water flooding and/or drought. Such issues may be considered by using Soft Computing Techniques: future sea level scenarios globally and regionally, future changes in storm surges, changes in precipitation regimes and associated river discharge, analyses of multiple threats to coastal areas and river delta due to climate change, measuring/recording climate change induced change, extremes and compound climatic events, and the role of adaptation in hazard mitigation and on possibilities to strengthen post hazard reconstruction with a long term adaptation perspective.

Climate change, socio-economic development, ineffective water policy and governance, and basin-wide
varying the levels of near-term emissions from each group's energy system, under a highly constrained CO2 budget, important sensitivities are revealed. Results demonstrate the significance of the rates of CO2 growth in the highest emitting groups, the importance of short-term change and the relevance of bunker-fuel emissions in shaping our collective futures. They also illustrate that only non-marginal change resulting in radical transitions across all energy systems can now be reconciled with the 2°C policy objective.

P-2236-03

The Integrating Assessment Modeling
Community: overview, structuring and
interactions with the IPCC expertise

C. Cassen (1) ; B. Cointe (2)

(1) CIRED, PARIS, France; (2) CIRED, Nogent sur Marne, France

The intellectual debates expressed by the Club of Rome about the "Limits to Growth" (Meadows, 1972) and the oil crisis in the 70s have given rise to energy-environment-economy (E3) models to explore the feasibility of long-term development pathways. The rise of climate change on the public agenda since the late 80s has prompted the need for quantitative assessment of mitigation strategies. In particular, the current of the research models gather different types of models, in particular IAMs (Integrated Assessment models). IAMs are simplified, stylized, numerical approaches to represent complex physical and social systems, and the most relevant interactions among the systems (e.g., energy, agriculture, the economic system). From a set of input assumptions they produce outputs in the form of quantified scenarios: energy system transitions, land use scenarios, economic effects of mitigation, emissions trajectories. These scenarios are central to the work of the IPCC "Working Group III" on mitigation of climate change, and play an increasingly important part in the negotiation and elaboration of climate policies.

In this paper, we investigate the conditions of the
production of such scenarios and the diversity of the models
behind them. These models have been developed by an
heterogeneous, interdisciplinary community of research.
This paper analyses the development and the evolution
of this community since the early 90s and provides an
overview of the main models and research teams. The
climate debate fostered the rise of a new generation
of models in the vein of the first global and techno-
economic models developed in the 60s and 80s. A main
divide in the 90s was between macro-economic models
(top-down) and more engineer styles models (bottom
up). Bottom-up models give the priority to a detailed
description of technologies and sectoral systems, while
top-down models represent macro-economic consistency
but encapsulate a limited description of technologies.
The gap between has narrowed and an increasing number of
hybrid models now combine comprehensive top-down
representations of macro-economic processes with a
technologically explicit bottom-up representation of
energy systems.

We explain this narrowing gap as a result of the structuring of the IAM community. How did these models emerge as unified – though diverse – category? How and where did the IAM community organise as such, and what is it made of? This paper stresses the role of intercomparison modeling exercises under the framework of key institutions (for instance the Energy Modeling Forum coordinated by Stanford University, European Framework projects…). It traces the development of an epistemic community which participates, through the production of socio-economic scenarios, to the framing of the assessment of climate policies in group III of the IPCC. This history of the development of IAM relies on a mapping of existing models and modeling team, on interviews, as well as on an analysis of the context of the research programs conducted in these forums, the material produced (reports, articles, IPCC assessment reports in particular AR4 and 5…).

P-2236-04

Native American Vulnerabilities to Climate
Change and the Emergence of Federal
Mitigation Strategies

S. Day (1)

developmental interventions are causing increasing threats to the availability and access of fresh water for drinking, agriculture, ecosystem sustenance and industrial activities. Sea level rise, Stalinization and long periods of drought are posing challenges to optimization of freshwater supply and demand. Such issues may be considered by using Soft Computing Techniques: research on how river delta can be adapted to threats of Stalinization and increasing uncertainties in fresh water supply, including technical, economic, policy and spatial planning measures that can be applied for improved fresh water management.

Uncertainty about climate change increases the complexity of decision-making. Limits to the predictability of natural and societal processes prevent scientists from making firm statements about the possible consequences of adaptation decisions. This contrasts with the public's expectation that decisions will be based on sound science. Such issues may be considered by using Soft Computing Techniques: bridging the gap between science and decision-making; Better methods and tools for assessing; simulating and communicating climate risk and the environmental, social and economic costs and benefits of adaptation.

P-2236-02

Going beyond integrated assessment: big
emitting nations and the 2°C target

A. Bows-Larkin (1) ; M. Sharmina, (1) ; J. Kuriakose, (1) ; K. Anderson (1)

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

This year, the United Nations Conference of the Parties in Paris is tasked with delivering a land-mark agreement on avoiding the 2°C warming associated with 'dangerous interference with the climate model'. If such an agreement is reached, it will re-invigorate analyses of how global and national energy systems can deliver the rates of mitigation accompanying the 2°C threshold. Commonly such studies rely on detailed integrated assessment models combining physical and economic relationships to forecast future climate and energy systems. Typically these models optimise on the basis of minimum costs in developing 'feasible' scenarios in terms of technology, infrastructure and efficiency change, as well as providing longitudinal outputs related to parameters such as capital costs, carbon tax rates, etc.

This paper reflects upon the reliance of decision makers on the outcomes of these models, and their suitability for producing plausible outcomes. One criticism is aimed at their limited ability to explore future societies under the pressures of climate change mitigation and adaptation, given that their economic parameterisations are underpinned by historical relationships fit for a world unperturbed by climate change. A second question whether these theoretical basis is appropriate for articulating the outcome of non-marginal change, between the very futures they are set up to explore involve non-marginal rates of change; for example radical cuts in CO2, or severe climate change impacts. Quantifying societal responses within such models is a particular challenge. Finally, these models downplay risks through disregarding low-probability, high-impact events and their consequences, including wars and migration. It is argued here that as currently these tools are unsuitable for modelling the revolutionary transformations necessary to stay within 2°C carbon budgets, or similarly, futures with higher levels of warming and subsequent impacts.

To address these deficiencies, this paper takes an
alternative approach to contextually explore the
‘possibility space’ appropriate for avoiding 2°C. In contrast
to exercises that build future scenarios using ‘immature’
relationships within and between the energy and climate
systems, a more transparent and dynamic framing
based on highly constrained cumulative carbon budgets
is proposed. Building on previous assessments that use
a similar approach by authors Anderson and Bows, and
this analysis looks beyond the contested ‘Annex 1’ and ‘non-
Annex 1’ division to backcast what the remaining CO2
budget implies for the world’s top emitting nations.
Analysis takes the top 25 nations, responsible for 85%
of global CO2, and groups these nations on the basis of
similarities within their energy systems. Using a range of
explicit variables such as short-term CO2 growth, a
suite of emission scenarios for these groups are developed,
constrained within a range of 2°C carbon budgets. By
(1) University of New Mexico, School of Public Administration, Albuquerque, NM, United States of America

Native Americans in the United States face a variety of existential threats due to climate change. This paper presents a typology of the specific vulnerabilities these groups face, and explains why they are unique groups when it comes to programs to mitigate the effects of climate change. Native American groups vary considerably in terms of their populations, land areas, and resultant population densities. As semi-sovereign governments with land assets held in trust by the federal government of the United States, these groups represent an interesting problem for climate change mitigation, in that the federal government has specific obligations towards the protection of these groups. What this means for climate change mitigation is unclear. What does the federal government 'owe' to a tribe whose land base is at risk due to climate change? Do certain mitigation strategies pose threats to the cultural and/or social fabric of the group, particularly if mitigation involves relocation? After providing the basic typology of climate change vulnerabilities faced by tribes, this paper goes on to describe several mitigation programs currently in the implementation phase. These include federal-tribal land swaps and relocations, as well as renegotiation of water rights. Thus far, these programs have not been controversial due to the fact that the tribes involved were small in terms of population and land base. However, I argue that the political feasibility of these types of mitigation strategies are limited by several factors specific to the types of vulnerabilities being addressed. As an example, the successful negotiation of land swaps and relocation are fundamentally constrained by the availability of federal lands adjacent to affected tribes, and which are not under pressure from additional stakeholders. As a result, the potential for land swaps as a standard mitigation strategy is likely to be limited to small and geographically remote tribes, as land swaps must contend with the principle that land exchanges must involve equivalent sized tracts of land. Thus I argue that larger coastal tribes that are closer to more urban areas are thus more vulnerable, both politically and environmentally, than the groups that have thus far been able to negotiate mitigation programs involving land swaps. Use of federal reserves involving water scarcity and other issues, on the other hand, are relatively less well-developed. For instance, while renegotiated water rights accords have strengthened the position of various tribes vis-à-vis other water rights stakeholders, the continued drought throughout much of the American West continues to diminish the total stock of water all users rely upon. As such, the negotiation of more advantageous water rights does not in and of itself address the vulnerability of certain groups if there is no water to be had. Furthermore, the political conflicts in such situations are likely to be much more acute than in the other types of climate change issues faced by other Native American groups insofar that all stakeholders over a broader geographic region face the same underlying vulnerabilities. These type of situations represent zero-sum games and any concessions granted to Native American groups are likely to be perceived as unfair by other stakeholders. The paper concludes with a series of policy recommendations which suggest that a broad and flexible approach to climate change mitigation should be pursued, one which takes into account the specific type of climate change vulnerability, the physical and demographic characteristics of the tribe in question, the costs involved, and the nature of political opposition towards specific policy proposals.

P-2236-05

Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change

M. De Lattre-Gasquet (1) ; T. Brunelle (2) ; P. Dumas (3)

(1) CIRAD, DGD-RS, Paris, France ; (2) CIREAL, Nogent-sur-Marne, France ; (3) CIRAD, Cired, Paris, France

How will future changes in land uses – within regions and

on a global level – will affect food security, taking into account possible climate changes, as well as changes in cropping and livestock systems, changes in farm structures, rural and urban relations, food regimes as well as changes in the general context.

The Agrimonde-Terra foresight project on "Land use and food (in)security" considers this question. Launched by the French research agency Agri-Terra, the Agrimonde-Terra conceptual framework can be used to build land uses scenarios at national and global levels with narratives and quantitative illustrations. At national and regional levels, the foresight process involves a group of diverse stakeholders, and discussions on the direct and indirect causes of land use changes facilitate thinking about the possible futures (anticipation), getting new ideas and understanding different points of view (apopstock system) as well as decision-making (action). A first workshop has taken place in Tunisia and land use scenarios have been built. On top of that, global and regional levels scenarios are built with the support of a Scenarios Advisory Committee and there are the basis for discussions on possible consequences of land use changes on food security. The scenarios have been built combining hypotheses on direct and indirect causes of land use changes, and looking at interactions and retractions between the various variables. The forensight exercise has a wholistic approach.

Climate change is one of the important indirect drivers of land use changes. It impacts the food production capacity of ecosystems in several ways. It changes the time maturity of crops, it alters annual yields as well as their inter-annual variability, and it changes the nutritious qualities of crops. As far as climate change is concerned, two contrasted scenarios have been taken into account, focusing on temperature change and bioclimatic cycles. The first scenario, entitled "Stabilization of Global Warming" corresponds to the RCP26 the AR5. The agricultural system does not experience any major change due to climate conditions compared to the current situation. The area of cropland suitable for agricultural production does not notably change compared to the current situation, but the stabilization of anthropogenic emissions requires massive efforts for sequestering carbon in the vegetation which may take the form of afforestation and/or production of bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage, or agro-forestry. Most of the land use changes, however, occur after 2050. The second scenario entitled "Runaway climate change" corresponds to the RCP 85 of the AR5. The agricultural system experiences strong impacts: there are increases in the area of cropland suitable for agricultural production due to land use changes. It mainly concerns the northern latitudes while arable cropland areas decrease in tropical regions. The average suitability of cropland areas also decrease significantly.

The combination of the climate change scenarios with climate change mitigation strategies concerning the direct and indirect causes of land use changes show that food regimes, crooping and livestock systems, and farm structures, will have to adapt to new situations.

P-2236-06

Geo-political maps of CO2(s) to facilitate scientific policy and public debate

K. De Pryck (1) ; T. Venturini (1) ; M. Deves (2) ; M. Robert (3) ; A. Reys (4)

(1) Sciences Po, Médialab, Paris, France ; (2) Institute for Globe Physics, Paris, France ; (3) University Paris Diderot, Paris, France ; (4) Sciences Po Paris, Médialab, Paris, France

In the last decades, a humble chemical molecule has become one of the most important actors of modern collective life. Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is increasingly used as a key marker for politics and economics both at the national and international level. As such, establishing thresholds for CO2 emissions is one of the main objectives of the UNFCCC (United-Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).

This does not means, of course, that the CO2 has passed from the natural to the political sciences. It means that the molecule has assumed a variety of different meanings according to who use it. Chemists, biologists, geologists, soil scientists, physicists, climatologists, all have different CO2 definitions. And their definitions differ from those of the economists, geo-politicians and NGOs and probably
even more from perceptions by the public opinion. If we had to design one single CO2 cycle, we would have to erase these different differences to obtain some 'mean version' that would be unrealistic.

Instead of trying to average these definitions, it would be much more interesting to find ways to compare their different meanings. Each of them designs and represents a specific vision of the world and of future policies and actions. For instance, measurements of CO2 emissions entail different responsibilities when represented in terms of CO2 per GDP, CO2 per capita or consumption/production-based CO2.

We started by exploring the scientific literature and used advanced scientometric techniques to disaggregate and map the references associated with the keywords "CO2" or "carbon dioxide". Our method consisted in:

* harvesting thousands bibliographical notices (299,629) mentioning "carbon dioxide" or "CO2" from ISI Web of Science,

* extracting all the references cited in the bibliographies of such notices,

* constructing series of co-citation networks (on various time-periods) in which disciplines emerge as tight clusters of references often co-appearing together,

* projecting the period on maps, together with other chosen metadata such as authors, keywords, subjects, countries and institutions.

A dozen of CO2 landscape maps were obtained showing the evolution of the research landscape concerned with CO2 through space and time. A first result to be discussed is the quick evolution of the key words around which research publications aggregate. Some interesting trends are observed (e.g. rise and fall of CO2 lasers in physics, movement from plant sciences to environmental sciences and the emergence of the climate change issue in the 1980s, development of geengineering-related disciplines in the 2010s). The maps also highlight the role played by different countries, institutions or individuals in different research fields (e.g US dominance in environmental (and climate) sciences and China's proximity with issues of carbon capture and storage). In order to complement and strengthen our analysis, we invited specialists to comment the maps.

At this stage, the quali-quantitative method we developed - empowered by digital computation and guided by expert knowledge - can explicit some of the multiple representations of CO2 from a research perspective. Future works will explore whether the IPCC expertise is really representative of the rapidly evolving research landscape. We believe this exercise to be particularly useful as we approach the negotiating table.

## P-2236-07

### Probabilistic analysis to improve baseline GHG emission determination in a developing context: The case of Chile

M. Diaz (1); R. O'ryan (2); C. Benavides (3); J. Mallea (4)
(1) Universidad de Chile, Centro de Energía - Energy Center, Santiago, Chile; (2) Universidad de Alfonso Elías, Centro de innovación en energía, Santiago, Chile; (3) Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; (4) Universidad de Chile, Departamento de ingeniería industrial, Santiago, Chile

In developing contexts, uncertainty in most key variables makes it difficult to establish reliable baseline GHG emissions for the near and medium term future. Scarce information, lack of models and high variability in the method variables are the main constraints to the future prediction of these baselines are being increasingly required in the context of international negotiations of the Kyoto protocol and particularly the country must define and declare a baseline and a contribution to mitigation by 2015.

It is common to work with the best information available and obtain a "most probable" scenario, usually based on "reasonable" assumptions of values and trends in key parameters and also to consider extreme cases and assume that these are equally probable, generating scenarios with a wide range of variation in results. Another possibility is using mean values, however in this case, proposals can turn out to be very difficult to reach or affect productive

sectors significantly since they may not adequately reflect the existing variability. Depending on the assumptions, a wide range of variation in results can be obtained, making it difficult for policymakers to identify the risks associated to a specific policy.

Probabilistic analysis may be very useful for determining these baseline emissions, incorporating uncertainty in the variables and propagation of uncertainty through the different processes in which they are involved. In particular GDP growth, one of the main drivers of increases in emissions, fuel prices, technology penetration levels are variables frequently used in this estimations. Expert opinion can also be incorporated systematically to improve these information gaps.

For this reason, in this paper we compare the results of a deterministic and probabilistic analysis for baseline GHG emissions in Chile up to 2030, based on the results of the Mitigation Actions Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) project (www mapschile.cl). Considering the significant uncertainty attached to the main variables involved we establish the relevance for policy-making associated to incorporating uncertainty. Phase 1 and 2 results of this project show, using deterministic analysis, that emissions will increase in the period between two to five years compared to current emissions. Probabilistic analysis allows fine tuning these results and richer conclusions for future policy-making by establishing GHG emissions that are possible to achieve with a given level of certainty. This provides the regulator with more freedom in defining a baseline which he/she will not later regret. Additionally, the results of the importance analysis of uncertainty allow establishing the variables where more information is required for better decision-making.

## P-2236-08

### Transition to sustainability: are normative participatory scenarios a useful tool? Two case studies in the Brazilian Amazon

AP. AQUIAR, (1); R. Folhes (2); A. Roberto (1); DC. Otávio (3); S. Emilie (4); P. Patrica (5); V. Ima (6); T. Peter (1); B. Mateus (7); K. Elza (7); ED. Nora, (1); T. Assis, (1); K. Kasper (8); C. Von Randow (9); B. Kruijt (10); A. Coelho (11)

(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) UFPA/Universite Paris 3 Sorbonne Nouvelle, Belem/Paris, France; (3) UFPA, Numera, Belem, Brazil; (4) University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (5) USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil; (6) Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belem, Brazil; (7) EMBRAPA Meio Ambiente, Campinas, Brazil; (8) Wageningen Universiteit Wageningen, Netherlands; (9) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ccst, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (10) Alterna, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands; (11) FAPESPA, Belem, Brazil

Environmental scenarios were largely exploratory in the past decades, mainly at global and regional scales. Normative/backcasting approaches gradually become more popular and more widely applied over the last decade, due to the strongly normative concept of sustainability. Backcasting can be defined as envisioning a desirable future, and then looking backwards in order to strategize and to plan how that vision of the future could be achieved. Here we present a normative participatory scenario approach conceived to explore what a "transition to sustainability" would mean (and require) in a heterogeneous and conflicting region such as the Brazilian Amazon. Scenario discussion for the Brazilian Amazon has mostly focused on future deforestation trends at broad-scale. In this work, we explicitly included the social dimension in the scenario construction process, enforcing that all the sustainability dimensions (social, environmental and economic) are taken into consideration. Here we present a synthesis of the scenario process and a synthesis of the results of two case studies at different scales.

The first case study was developed on a settlement project in Pará State, with the specific goal to explore how participatory scenario methods could contribute to the strengthening of territorial units, such as indigenous lands, settlement projects, conservation units. At PAE Lago Grande, a multi-scale approach was adopted, involving stakeholders at three communities and representatives of organizations at the settlement level. Thorugh a series of structured workshops, the action reached the sustainable/desired future at the several scales were
discussed, including the divergence/convergence between the scales. Then, we successfully reproduced a similar approach to the whole Brazilian Amazonia, involving representatives of civil society organizations, productive sector and the Federal Government.

Two contrasting futures for the region (Sustainability and Chaotic/Fragmentation) were built using the same workshop structure. In this second case study, besides the qualitative scenarios, selected elements of the resulting storylines were quantified to generate explicit spatially representations of land use in the region in coming decades. The land use scenarios were in turn used by multiple climate, vegetation and hydrological models in the scope of the AMAZALERT project at different research institutions to explore the impacts on the provision of ecosystem services and regional climate change in Amazonia. The resulting quantitative scenarios and impacts were then feed back to the stakeholders, illustrating the outcomes of the stories they envisioned.

The normative scenario approach we adopted here was conceived as a tool to subside a broader discussion about “the future we want and how to get there”, under the hypothesis that they favor understanding of diverging points of view, facilitating the collective decision-making process and empowerment. In spite of the well know limitations of participatory methods, we consider the main indication of the potential of the approach the fact that, at the final debate of both case studies, some key stakeholder (from Government, environmental ONG and research institutions) showed interest in replicating the process in other contexts.

P-2236-09

## Social and economic tipping points in adaptation processes: Reason for concern?

M. Garschagen (1) ; J. Birkmann (2) ; T. Welle (2)

(1) United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; (2) Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

Tipping points have become popular epistemic elements within the assessment of climate change. The study of tipping points helps decipher the complexity in climate change dynamics. Yet, despite the increasing engagement with tipping points in hazards and expected impacts there has been little structure as in PAF Lago Grande. In this case study, the stakeholders assessed tipping points in adaptive capacity and adaptation processes. Along the same line, tipping points have been linked predominantly to large-scale bio-physical systems (e.g. the instability of large ice sheets and the breakdown of ocean circulation systems). Little attention has, thus far, been paid to potential adaptation tipping points in social and economic systems and at lower scales. Resulting knowledge gaps are particularly relevant for coastal areas and cities where socio-economic change is often rapid, coupled with heightened levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate change hazards.

Through its conceptual and empirical engagement with tipping points in adaptation processes, the paper aims at contributing to a better understanding of potential future adaptation trajectories. The analysis links two scales: First, a global index-based assessment of risk patterns and trends is presented with a national resolution, focusing in particular on the possibility and effect of large-scale adaptation tipping points. Second, an in depth analysis of selected coastal urban areas in Asia, Africa and Europe is presented, drawing on ongoing research projects. The findings suggest that many types of tipping points in adaptation processes and capacities can be observed, spanning across hard and soft aspects (e.g. related to the financial costs vs. political feasibility of certain adaptation measures). A taxonomy of such adaptation tipping points is thus developed and implications for model-based appraisals of adaptive capacity are explored. The paper concludes by discussing epistemological challenges for a future adaptation science as well as practical lessons for risk and adaptation governance (e.g. how to incorporate tipping points into adaptation 'planning' or into a global architecture of adaptation financing).

P-2236-10

## Climate change geo-indicators for policy-makers: downscaling for land-use planning in Caribbean Islands

JR. Gros-Desormeaux (1) ; F. Léone (2) ; P. Palany (3) ; M. Morell (4) ; P. Cantet (5) ; T. Lesales (6)

(1) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (InEE), Umr 8053 (crpdc), Schoeler, Martinique; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr 0007 (sred), Montpellier, France; (3) Métope-France, Service Antilles-Guyanot-dart-de-France, Martinique; (4) BALWOIS, Montpellier, France; (5) Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture, Ur rhax, Aix-en-Provence, France; (6) CIHENCE, Paris, France

The Lesser Antilles are exposed to major and various hazards (earthquake, volcanism, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, landslides, etc.). In a significant context of climate change, the main responses for the sustainable management of territories is being drafted. Recent works on the importance of using high-resolution model to study the climate change on small islands by Cantet and al. (2014), underline the importance of the dynamical downscaling to study the impacts of climate change on the Lesser Antilles. The projections provided by the regional climate model suggest an increase in extreme rainfall events: longer dry periods, a bigger annual total precipitation, more frequent very heavy daily precipitation and a stronger 1 d maximum precipitation, whereas for the driving Global Climate Model, these trends are less intense. Within the framework of the EU Interreg CARIBSAT program, a Multi-natural hazards CARIBSAT GIS was produced by the GRED research laboratory (University of Montpellier, France) and the IRD agency (Institute of Research for Development, Martinique). The aim was to harmonize multiple sources of historical, scientific and geographical information. CARIBSAT GIS is useful to develop several sets of geo-risk and natural disasters indicators: natural hazards activity, human and socio-economic impacts, exposure levels. These geo-indicators are therefore helpful to elaborate territorial diagnosis and comparative risk analysis, at international or regional levels. In the poster, one main question will steer future research: How and by which mechanisms do the actors, who have produced and manage regional knowledge, can investigate their dynamic under different scenarios of stressors or management actions are scan. Here, we developed a transdisciplinary approach to investigating the social-ecological system of Moorea island, French Polynesia. Conceptual models were built through participatory modelling workshops. Then, a Bayesian Belief Networks was developed using a 11-year long database and expert opinion to provide scenarios testing the effects of different stressors and management actions on the system defined by stakeholder groups. Preliminary results suggest that (1) the management of the social-ecological system of Moorea should more targeted towards specific user groups, (2), more coordination is needed between marine and terrestrial agencies for a more

P-2236-11

## Exploring the social-ecological dynamics of a coral reef resource system using bayesian belief networks

P. Leenhardt (1) ; J. Claudet (2) ; V. Stellenmuller (3)

(1) UPMC, Paris, France; (2) CNRS, Usr 3278 criobie, Perpignan, France; (3) Thunen Institute, Thunen, Germany

Social-ecological system approaches are now considered as the most relevant conceptual lens to establish biodiversity management strategies accounting for human-nature interactions. It reflects the dramatic paradigm-shift that environmental sciences have undergone in recent years, with increased recognition of the role of people in the dynamics of all natural ecosystems and of the feedbacks of ecological change on human uses and well-being. Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems characterized by complex feedback interactions, emergent processes, non-linear dynamics and uncertainty. While the science for modelling social-ecological systems is improving, transdisciplinary empirical studies aimed at investigating their dynamic under different scenarios of stressors or management actions are scan. Here, we developed a transdisciplinary approach to investigating the social-ecological system of Moorea island, French Polynesia. Conceptual models were built through participatory modelling workshops. Then, a Bayesian Belief Networks was developed using a 11-year long database and expert opinion to provide scenarios testing the effects of different stressors and management actions on the system defined by stakeholder groups. Preliminary results suggest that (1) the management of the social-ecological system of Moorea should more targeted towards specific user groups, (2), more coordination is needed between marine and terrestrial agencies for a more
integrated coastal zone management and (3) the lagoon and the outer slope could be considered as two social-ecological subsystems.

P-2236-12

Climate impacts on adequate human
livelihood conditions for well-being and
development: framing uncertainties in
projections of water availability

T. Lissner (1) ; CF. Schleussner (1) ; D. Reusser (2)

(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Climate change vulnerability and the consequent need for adaptation are unevenly distributed in the world and many developing countries are especially vulnerable to changes in climate. Climate change often adds on to existing development pressures that are responsible for low levels of social and economic welfare, increasing the vulnerability of such regions. Climate impacts may substantially reduce the adequacy of livelihood conditions and adaptation and coping strategies are insufficient. Integrated approaches, including climatic as well as aspects of development are needed in order to identify adaptation requirements, opportunities and co-benefits. Ideally, development strategies as well as adaptation and mitigation should be complementary strategies, working towards improved livelihood conditions and sustainable pathways. The trans-disciplinary concept of «Adequate human livelihood conditions for well-being and development» (AHEAD) provides a conceptual framework for the identification of limitations to adequate livelihood conditions and the consequent need for adaptation and development. The approach allows addressing several topical challenges of climate impact assessments, such as the integration of concepts from different disciplines, data integration as well as the combination of processes at different scales. A particular challenge for the assessment of climate impacts and adaptation needs lies in the treatment of uncertainties, which normally multiply along the assessment chain as has been shown by the recent Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The methodological implementation of the AHEAD framework provides a way of dealing with these uncertainties based on the representation of gradual adequacy of conditions using fuzzy logic.

To illustrate the utility of the AHEAD approach, we assess the adequacy of AHEAD conditions on a global scale at national resolution. We focus in particular on the availability of water resources in adequate quantity and quality, which plays an important role in meeting human livelihood needs. We use multi-model water resource estimates from ISI-MIP to illustrate, how the approach can provide a way forward in dealing with the substantial uncertainty in projections of water availability. Our results indicate that water availability limits the adequacy of livelihood conditions in some countries today, a situation that will aggravate over the course of the century; however for the majority of countries other aspects limit the adequacy of livelihood conditions. The presented approach shows how uncertainty ranges in modelling results may be framed in a way, which allows assessing their relevance with regard to specific questions. The uncertainty range of data on water availability is considerable for many countries, but for more than a third of the countries this range is outside of critical thresholds for water security and overall AHEAD conditions.

P-2236-13

From Static Socio-economic Sensitivity
to Interactive Scenarios: New Tools in
Support of Climate Change Adaptation
Decision-Making

J. Lückenkötter, (1)

(1) TU Dortmund University, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Dortmund, Germany

For many years long-term scenarios of future socio-economic developments were mostly hidden in the background of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments. At the forefront of scientific studies on climate change were advances of the climate modelling community. Long-term socio-economic scenarios were

nevertheless needed as drivers of the underlying emission projections. For this purpose four main 'storylines' of demographic, social, economic and technological developments were defined by the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios. But the socio-economic scenarios of the 'storylines' were coarse and remained largely in the background of impact and vulnerability assessments. In fact, the socio-economic sensitivity components of most assessments remained static, i.e. they used only the most recent one, i.e. the most recent impact output and other related indicators. Thus future climate conditions were often related to current (and not future) societal conditions.

Since the SRES scenarios new approaches and methods for demographic and socio-economic projections have emerged. And the IPCC eventually adopted a 'parallel modelling scenario' allowing climate researchers and social science researchers to develop their models in parallel instead of in a sequential fashion. Social scientists developed a set of 'shared socio-economic pathways' that are only loosely linked to different policy assumptions and thus opened up even more flexibility for exploring different socio-economic constellations.

These methodological advances reflect the realization that socio-economic developments are much more open and dynamic and therefore perhaps even more difficult to project than long-term climatic changes. It is also an often neglected fact that socio-economic conditions in most parts of the world have in the past 50 years changed to a much greater degree than have climatic conditions - and this is likely to hold true for the future as well. Thus, the level of future climate change impacts will be also primarily determined by socio-economic changes. Moving from fixed (e.g. the most current) socio-economic sensitivities to a variety of flexible scenarios therefore holds the promise of greatly enhancing impact and vulnerability assessments and applied tools for policy advice.

This paper reviews examples of recent climate change impact and vulnerability assessments that treat socio-economic sensitivities in different ways - ranging from static status quo to flexible scenarios. A special focus is put on studies that have fully embraced the scenario approach. For example, some recent and ongoing European research projects like CLIMSAVE (Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe) or CLIP-C (Climate Information Platform for Copernicus) are offering users the ability to interactively explore different socio-economic development trajectories. The paper identifies methodological achievements as well as requirements and opportunities for decision-makers, but also highlights key challenges of these new approaches.

P-2236-14

Chaos in climate change impact estimates

E. Massetti (1)

(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America

Global Circulation Models incorporate chaotic dynamics to reflect real-world weather patterns. This implies that extremely small perturbations of the climate system may generate very different weather patterns. Here I show that the SRES climate change scenarios generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) --- ubiquitous in the impact literature --- display strong chaotic dynamics at regional and sub-regional level, at least until 2065. Chaos is triggered by changes to historical forcing in the year 2000 to reflect different emissions trajectories. This suggests that large uncertainty exists on how to link local climate change and global forcing. Furthermore, short- and mid-term differences in local climate change across different SRES emission scenarios reflect chaotic dynamics rather than different forcing patterns. I show that the «chaos» in the climate scenarios generates a «chaotic» relationship between exogenous forcing and local economic impacts on agriculture. «Perturbed exogenous forcing» model ensemble would resolve this uncertainty.
## Low-carbon transition scenarios for the French transportation sector: exploring the role of uncertainty on technology costs with robust optimization

C. Nicolas (1); S. Tchung-Ming (1)
(1) IPEN, Economics, Rueil, France

Reaching very ambitious GHG reductions objectives will likely require abatement efforts from the transportation sector. On the supply-side, technological options for reducing transportation emissions consist in reducing the carbon intensity or increasing the energy efficiency. On the demand-side, reducing the amounts of travels and increasing modal shifts towards less carbon-intensive means are the major levers.

The identification of cost-effective mitigation strategies critically depends on the relative costs of transportation technological options which determine the competitiveness of substitution options. In long-term energy system models, cost assumptions need to be defined over distant horizons. On the forecast side, the uncertainty that carries weight on the model hypotheses and which is at the root of many criticisms (IPCC 2014).

Motivation is the literature on energy modelling with uncertainty is very large: stochastic programming which mainly deals with large socio-economic or political uncertainties, scenario analysis (Babaei et al., 2014) or Monte-Carlo analysis can be used to obtain distributions of model outcomes (Rosakis and Sourie, 2005).

In this paper, we introduce an alternative way to tackle uncertainty in optimization energy system models. We rely on robust optimization (Ben-Tal et al., 2009) to make many model parameters simultaneously uncertain. So far, this technique has been scarcely used in energy modeling (Babonneau et al., 2012). The contributions of the paper are twofold. From a methodological perspective, we argue that robust optimization techniques are appropriate for introducing cost uncertainty from many sources in long-term optimization models. We use recent results from operations research to economically interpret model outcomes, and assess the robustness of the model to economic parameters through optimization. From a policy perspective, we aim to evaluate the hedging potential of alternative technologies, making a step towards the identification of robust technology portfolios and policy designs.

Methodology in order to assess how deeply our model solutions are affected by uncertainty and to help the decision maker to define policy, we used a recent methodology developed in the field of operations research: robust optimization (RO). The general principle of RO consists in immunizing a solution against adverse realizations of uncertain parameters within given uncertainty sets. The basic requirement for a robust solution is that constraints of the problem are not violated whatever the realization of the parameters in the set.

While stochastic or Monte-Carlo frameworks require the definition of probability density functions, the principle of RO consists in set-based descriptions of uncertainties. As only the uncertainty of the parameters are likely to vary needs to be known. The robust counterpart of the initial problem thus includes variables that trade the deviations of the worst-case parameters with respect to their nominal values. The number of potentially deviating coefficients can be controlled through an exogenous parameter - the uncertainty budget, which gives control on the degree of pessimism of the optimal solution. Our experimental setting consists in using a TIMES-based long-term planning horizon of the energy-transport system. We derive a dynamic implementation of the RO method. We perform a set of setting runs by setting increasingly stringent (i) abatement objectives on CO2 from transport by 2050 and (ii) uncertainty budgets. We make primary energy prices and transportation investment costs uncertain.

Results and discussion We identify robust technological mitigation scenarios (COMPLET) with the modeled policy objectives for any random realization of the uncertain parameters), which vary with both the required level of abatement and the degree of pessimism on the certainty of the exogenous price/cost projections. Key messages are that (i) the diesel-gasoline balance is affected by uncertainty, partly in response to system effects (ii) there is

a general tendency to incorporate more biofuels (iii) natural gas (including biogas) and electricity pathways are relevant hedging option for low carbon caps; for stringent objectives, they are pushed out of the market. We then discuss policy insights, showing that if the uncertainty budget is reasonably low (good confidence in prices/costs projections) it makes sense to incorporate a diversification logic in policy designs. However, if confidence is poor (high uncertainty budgets), then diversification may not be relevant.

## The application of scenario planning for decision-making in the face of climate change: issues of scale

S. Serrao-Neumann (1); D. Low Choy (2)
(1) Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Cooperative research centre for water sensitive cities, Brisbane, Australia;
(2) Urban Research Program, Griffith university, Brisbane, Australia

There is widespread recognition that climate change will affect cities and regions worldwide. Projected impacts of climate change will be spatially non-uniform and the ability of communities to respond to those impacts will also vary significantly. Assisting multi-level decision-making involving climate change adaptation with scenario planning is well placed given the uncertainty related to climate science and projected impacts. This paper seeks to distill lessons on the use of scenario planning involving multi-stakeholders for decision-making related to climate change adaptation. Lessons are extracted based on the development and application of explorative scenarios (multiple plausible futures) by three distinct action-research projects involving different scales of stakeholder engagement in Australia: (i) regional, (ii) community of practice, and (iii) community scales.

The regional scale project focuses on the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI) involving a multi-sectoral investigation of climate change adaptation in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, comprising the sectors of urban and regional planning, coastal management, physical infrastructure, emergency management and human health. The SEQ region has been identified as one of six vulnerability hotspots to climate change in Australia. The community of practice scale project focuses on planning for climate change adaptation involving regional bodies responsible for natural resources management in the East Coast Cluster of Australia. The East Coast of Australia comprises a wide range of landscapes that will be impacted by climate change, including coastal areas, major catchments and agricultural areas that support two capital cities. The community scale focuses on the recovery phase of the Cardwell community in far north Queensland in the aftermath of category five tropical cyclone Yasi. Tropical cyclones affecting this area are likely to become less frequent but more intense in the face of climate change. At least two scenario planning workshops were conducted for each project to assist in the development and testing of proposed adaptation options. Adaptation options were developed through collaborative planning processes involving a range of stakeholders and aimed to reduce their vulnerability to future climate change impacts.

Findings indicate that at broader scales, such as regional level, exploratory scenarios enable the integration of multi-stakeholder and sector perspectives related to complex challenges such as climate change adaptation for human settlements. In particular, at that scale, scenarios provide opportunities for improved interaction between practitioners and understanding of sector-specific issues. In parallel, community of practice and community scales are better positioned for scoping more specific and tailored adaptation options. However, they lack broader interaction between different layers of actors involved in decision-making therefore hampering stakeholder's ability to assess feasibility and envision the implementation of adaptation pathways. Multi-stakeholder scenarios processes are known to be time consuming given stakeholder's unfamiliarity with the method. In the community scale project, it was also noted stakeholder's difficulty in grasping with both multidimension challenges related to and longer-term strategic thinking demanded for climate change adaptation.
# Designing experiments for climate prediction

DA. Stainforth (1); J. Daron (2); S. Harrison, (3)

(1) London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; (2) UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) University of Exeter, College of life and environmental sciences, Penryn, United Kingdom

Complicated global circulation models are used to simulate and study the climate system. Increasingly they are also used to make projections of future climate. For instance, the results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (e.g. CMIP5) play a significant role in the IPCC assessment reports and are often used to guide adaptation planning and impacts assessments.

Here we will discuss what we mean by climate prediction and to what extent the modelling experiments which are run today, are sufficient to quantify changing climate in the 21st century. We will argue that the design of climate modelling experiments needs to be changed in the light of conceptual understanding in nonlinear dynamical systems theory, and better informed by concepts being explored in the philosophy of science and in approaches to robust decision making.

The concept of climate as a changing distribution will be illustrated using a low-dimensional climate-like mathematical system undergoing a forced change. The different roles that uncertainty in initial conditions can play

will be discussed and used to illustrate the limitations on the probabilistic accuracy of predictions. It will be argued that today's ensembles of AOGCMs and ESMs are likely too small to be able to robustly quantify the changing climate within the model itself. This severely limits there value for both scientific understanding and for guiding societal decisions.

The implications of model error will be discussed and put in the context of the balance which must be achieved between the study of emergent properties and the use of reductionist models.

The consequences of initial condition uncertainty and model uncertainty will be drawn together to argue for a new approach to the design and interpretation of climate models and climate model ensembles; one which requires larger ensembles and greater computing resources but which encourages diversity in models and interpretational approaches mediated by physical understanding rather than statistical post processing. This stands in contrast to arguments which have been made for increasing resolution while reducing the diversity of different models.

**References:**

Daron, J.D. and D.A. Stainforth, On predicting climate under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 2013. 8.

Harrison, S. and D. Stainforth, Predicting Climate Change: Lessons From Reductionism, Emergence, and the Past Eos, 2009. 90(13): p. 111-112.

# 2237a - Planetary Economics (1): Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Policy Action

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2237a-01

#### Consequences of Climate Change Policies for Economic Growth

R. Dellink (1)

(1) OECD, Paris, France

This paper focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. Simulations with the OECD's dynamic global general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages assess the consequences of a selected number of climate change impacts in the various world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. The analysis finds that the effect of climate change impacts on annual global GDP is projected to increase over time, leading to a global GDP loss of around 1% to 3.3% by 2060 for the likely equilibrium climate sensitivity range. Underlying these annual global GDP losses are much larger sectoral and regional variations. Agricultural and health impacts dominate in most regions, while damages from sea level rise gradually become more important. Negative economic consequences are especially large in Sub-Saharan Africa and South and South-East Asia whereas other regions will be less affected and, in some cases, benefit thanks to adjustments from international trade. Emissions to 2060 will have important consequences in late decades and centuries. Simulations with the AD-RICE model suggest that if emissions continue to grow after 2060, annual damages of climate change could reach 4%-11% of GDP by the end of the century. Some impacts and risks from climate change have not been quantified in this study, including large-scale disruptions and the disutility from premature deaths. These will potentially have very large economic consequences, and therefore the costs of inaction presented here likely underestimate the full costs of climate change impacts when no policy action is taken. The stylised analysis clearly shows that with efficient adaptation policies, costs will be significantly lower. Mitigation not only brings the expected level of climate damages down, it also considerably reduces the likely uncertainty range. However, the role of adaptation is much more limited when ambitious mitigation policies are adopted. The opposite is not true: even with ambitious adaptation policies, there is a large role for mitigation to

play in keeping the total costs of climate change as low as possible. More research is needed to assess the costs of inaction and the benefits of policy action, as well as the various uncertainties and risks involved. However, this should not delay policy action, but rather induce policy frameworks that are able to deal with new information and with the fact that by their nature some uncertainties and risks will never be resolved.

### K-2237a-02

#### Climate change impacts and market driven adaptation: The costs of inaction including market rigidities

F. Bosello (1); R. Parrado (2)

(1) University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of economics, Milan, Italy; (2) FEEM, Venice, Italy

To manage the complexity of economic assessments of climate change impacts, climate change research saw an increasing development and application of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Their distinctive feature is to describe in a controlled environment the "climate-change issue" in its entirety, i.e. connecting the climatic, the environmental and the social components. Two broad approaches can be identified in the economic quantification of climate change damages with IAMs. One makes ample use of reduced-form climate change damage functions basically, a more or less sophisticated functional form translates temperature increases into GDP losses. Parameterization of these functions derives from extrapolation of the impact literature or expert opinions. A different approach, often coupled with the use of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, consists in translating climate change pressures into changes in quantity/quality of factors of production and/or in agents' preferences driving demand and supply behaviour in the models. GDP losses are thus the direct outcome of the simulation and do not stem from an explicit function and its ad hoc parameterization.

More than twenty years of IA research produced a vast literature on the cost of climate change. Due to their obvious policy relevance, these estimates are surrounded by a heated debate, and many authors suggest that they are likely to underestimate climate change costs. Many features of climate change, environmental and social
responses are still uncertain and/or not well captured by IAMs. For instance, relatively small changes in climate sensitivity can greatly change the cost estimates from these models (Ackermann and Stanton, 2012; Antھoff and Tol, 2013). Quantitative modelling frameworks are also ill suited to measure important social phenomena like conflicts, mass migrations, disruption of knowledge, learning and social capital potentially triggered by climate change (Antھoff and Tol, 2013; Stern, 2013). IAMs may use different GDP inputs, and even disregard its deficiency as a welfare measure, captures flow and tend to overlook stock losses (Stern 2013). Risk and irreversibility associated to high damage low probability events is usually left out of the analysis which can seriously bias downward damage estimates (Weitzman, 2007, 2008, 2009; Ackerman and Stanton 2012). IAMs tend to be overly optimistic in describing timing and scale of adaptation processes, disregarding the fact that, agents may not use perfect information and for technological, economic, psychological and cultural characteristics may resist to some changes (Patt et al., 2010). All these critiques are particularly relevant when climate change impact assessments are conducted with CGE models. They provide a peculiar richness in the analysis of climate change costs, highlighting sectoral effects and, above all, tracking endogenous market adjustments and rebounds triggered by climate change shocks. But, at the same time, they are growing in GDP, which account just for marketable relations, typically model instantaneous and frictionless adjustments. Against this background, the assessments performed with CGE models tend to fall somewhat in the lower end of cost estimates.

This paper presents a simple exercise to address the following questions. Do climate change impact assessments performed with CGE models estimate lower GDP losses than reduced-form climate change damage based assessments? What is the role of market driven adaptation in determining these estimates?

We run a standard climate change impact assessment exercise with a recursive-dynamic CGE model using updated estimates of an extended set of impacts for different temperature increase scenarios. Then we extrapolate a reduced-form climate change damage function. We show that, at the global level, this is not significantly different from that produced by some established hard-linked integrated assessment models when the same impact categories are included. Furthermore, we perform the same exercise reducing what can be defined "market driven adaptation". In practice, we restrict the elasticity of input substitution in the production function, the substitutability of domestic and imported inputs, and finally sectoral workforce mobility. We demonstrate that, notwithstanding these frictions increase the cost of climate change impacts, they do not change substantively neither the qualitative nor the quantitative picture.

## K-2237a-03

### Accounting for Climate Impact and Cost Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models

A. Markandya (1); F. Bosello (2); E. De Cian (2); J. Polanco (3); L. Drouet (4)

(1) BC3 Basque Center for Climate Change, Scientific director, Bilbao, Spain; (2) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (3) BC3, Bilbao, Spain; (4) FEEM, Milan, Italy

We develop a methodology that uses the concept of a risk premium to account for risk aversion to climate change damages in the affected population. The premium is derived from the notion of risk aversion in the framework of expected utility theory, namely the amount that society would be willing to pay in order to reduce the riskiness of future damages. We estimate the risk premium for plausible average damage functions that are currently being used in Integrated Assessment Models to calculate the optimal levels of mitigation and adaptation. The new functions are referred to as risk-adjusted damage functions and they have higher damages than the expected values used previously. We have calibrated three sets of risk-adjusted regional damage functions for three different level of risk aversion, low, medium and high. With low and medium coefficients of relative risk aversion equal to 1 and 1.5 the additional damage component is quite small. The damage addition due to risk aversion is highly nonlinear and it increases significantly when the coefficient rises to 2. It is also interesting to note that the risk premium varies

from region to region, implying that the degree of the adaptation response will be region-specific.

The new functions are used to estimate what they imply for optimal adaptation and mitigation with different versions of the AD-Witch model. The results show that the percentage increase in allocation to adaptation is around 10-20 percent for values of the coefficient of risk aversion of 1 and 1.5 but rises to as much as 80-200 percent for a value of the coefficient of 2. The impacts of including risk in damage estimation on mitigation are interesting and somewhat different. In the cooperative solution mitigation is increased 5-10 percent with the higher damages for low values of risk aversion and by 10-20 percent for higher values. Finally as far as the growth scenarios are concerned there appears to be little difference in terms of the impact that taking account of risk has on the calculations.

Further work is continuing to see the effects of the new damage functions at the regional level.

## O-2237a-01

### Global climate impacts: a preliminary economic analysis

JC. Ciscar (1); M. Perry (1); J. Pycroft (1); J. Abrell (2); M. Rozsai (1); W. Szewczyk, (1)

(1) European Commission (ITS, EU JRC), Seville, Spain; (2) ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

Understanding the global implications of climate change at the appropriate country resolution is important for the policy process. The purpose of this presentation is to gain some first insights on the sectoral and regional pattern of the biophysical and economic consequences of climate change at the global scale, benefiting from the current bottom-up sectoral impact evidence. The study will consider a set of climate model runs and a limited set of impact categories within an integrated climate-biophysical-economic framework.

The main questions to be addressed are the following. Firstly, how important are the impacts of climate change for the big players in the international climate negotiations? Secondly, what are the distributional implications of climate impacts vis-à-vis Europe? Thirdly, what are the main uncertainties in the modelling and how they influence the results?

The project scope has several dimensions. Regarding the time horizon, it covers the climate impacts over the 2071-2100, compared to 1961-1990. The study considers few impact areas, for which there exist empirical bottom-up evidence: agriculture, coastal areas, and if possible, energy.

The study methodology is based on results from process or bottom-up biophysical impact models (from the ClimateCost EU project and, possibly, the ISI-MIP project). The economic valuation of climate impact categories will be carried out in a coherent and harmonized way with an economic multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in order to enhance the comparability of the different damaging patterns.

The authors have already conducted preliminary analysis of impacts in agriculture and coastal areas. The results indicate that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across the world, with strong geographical asymmetries.

## O-2237a-02

### Effort sharing taking into account adaptation costs and climate change damage

A. Hof (1); E. De Cian (2); G. Marangoni, (2); M. Tavoni (3) ; D. Van Vuuren (1)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of climate, air and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Matteo Carini, Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy

The ongoing discussion about the feasibility of maintaining global temperatures below 2 °C encompasses not only the costs and benefits of achieving the target, but also the difficulty of reconciling regional efforts with the inequity of climate change impacts. If mitigation and adaptation actions, as well as residual damage from climate change,
will be distributed diversely across the world, we can devise a policy which aligns different country and regional views and incentives? In most of the scientific literature, equity issues related to mitigation, adaptation, and impacts have been disconnected. Most studies on effort sharing have focused on fair distributions of mitigation costs without considering adaptation costs and residual damage. Our study aims to fill this gap by investigating which mitigation targets in 2030 and 2050 lead to equalizing the sum of mitigation costs, adaptation costs, and residual damage as share of GDP across regions.

We employ two alternative modelling frameworks combined with two sets of regional climate change impact functions. These models provide a mapping of the residual climate change damages of 2 °C and of the resulting adaptation costs, and allow exploring how emission rights should be allocated to equalize the sum of mitigation costs, residual damage, and adaptation costs as share of GDP across regions. We show that a 2 °C world leaves considerable residual impacts and adaptation costs. Sharing the burden of the total costs of climate change, including residual damage and adaptation costs, reshuffles the emission allocation compared to an effort-sharing regime based on mitigation costs only. The financial implications can be significant, with a total of additional resources in the order of 100–200 USD billion in 2030 would need to flow to the high impact countries in India, Africa, and Rest of Asia, by means of trading emission rights. Countries with lower-than-average impacts, such as OECD countries and China, would buy such rights thereby financing those transfers.

The above numbers assume a global carbon market being in place from 2020 onwards. Even though such a global carbon market with the implied sharing rules is not easy to implement, our paper suggests that accounting for the total costs of climate change and including adaptation and damage considerations could achieve an effort distribution being perceived fair by a wider group of countries.

## O-2237a-03

### A predictive model of production loss under unanticipated shocks by extreme weather events

S. Willner (1) ; C. Otto (2) ; L. Wenz (1) ; R. Bierkandt (1) ; A. Levermann (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research domain sustainable solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research domain climate impacts and vulnerabilities, Potsdam, Germany

Risks of extreme weather events like floods, heat-waves and storms are likely to increase due to global warming. Since world markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value added chains, extreme weather in one place may have repercussions elsewhere. Accordingly, a comprehensive

climate risk management and cost estimation should take these interactions and dynamics into account.

Here, we present the dynamic damage propagation model called «acclimat». On the same time scale as the local events the model explores immediate response dynamics as well as the subsequent recovery phase of the supply network. While the pure damage propagation dynamics [1] has as well as the possibility to work and damage conserving extension of production [2] have already been described, we concentrate here on a major extension that includes price dynamics and local economic optimization.

The model focuses on analyzing the indirect effects of local perturbations without taking into account economic growth. Its agents, i.e. production or consumption sites, are organized in a production network based on multi-regional input-output data (Eora MRIO database). This constitutes the baseline and is assumed to be an optimal state with respect to the economic rational of the model. Direct damage as perturbation due to climatic extreme events causes cascading deviations from the baseline along the network and thus leads to indirect production and consumption losses.

Each producing agent optimizes its purchase, demand distribution, as well as production and supply distribution to maximize their revenue. Due to the unanticipated nature of the events we assume limited foresight for the agents, who perform their optimization locally in a spatial as well as temporal sense. Since the time scale is too short to allow for immediate market clearance local price deviations are hereby taken into account. The agents for final consumption optimize analogously with respect to their consumption. This short-term behavior is complemented by middle-term adaptation in the form of rewiring within the production network. We furthermore allow for dissipation effects using storage capacities and temporary production extension.

With this model we estimate the economic costs of climate change induced production failures, including indirect costs with potential low-probability but high-damage events. We furthermore aim to systematically assess the limits of adaptation of the supply network. Concerning risk management, we stress the importance of global structural adaptation measures in addition to local adaptation.

[1]: Bierkandt, R., Wenz, L., Willner, S.N., Levermann, A. (2014). Acclimate – a model for economic damage propagation. Part I: basic formulation of damage transfer within a global energy network and damage conserving dynamics. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34, 507-524.

[2]: Wenz, L., Willner, S.N., Bierkandt, R., Levermann, A. (2014). Acclimate – a model for economic damage propagation. Part II: a dynamic formulation of the backward effects of disaster-induced production failures in the global energy network. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34, 525-539.

## 2237b – Planetary Economics (2): expanding the horizons of economic sciences and the policy implications

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-2237b-01

##### 'Planetary Economics': The Three Domains and their implications

M. Grubb (1) ; JC. Hourcade (2) ; K. Neuhoff (3)

(1) University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom (2) International Research Centre for Climate and Development (CRED), Paris, France; (3) German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin, Germany

This paper summarises and outlined evidence for the economic framework developed in the book *Planetary Economics*. It maps out three domains of decision-making, each of which involves different actors, processes and for which our understanding rests on different theoretical foundations. Each operates at different scales of time and social entities: they are complementary, not

competing, explanations of diverse economic phenomena. For this session, the paper will also tentatively map different economic theories on this framework.

The paper will then explain the unique characteristics of energy and climate change issues which make all three domains simultaneously important, and indeed argue that the issues raised span all three domains in approximately equal measure. The paper will also suggest that understanding the different domains help to explain the extremes of cycles in international energy markets and the poor history of energy forecasting.

The paper will then outline lessons on the three corresponding pillars of policy and why any individual policy pillar has been in practice prone to failure. It will outline correspondingly the need for policy packages spanning all three are credible, economically efficient and environmentally effective – and hence, politically stable. The concluding overview of this paper will focus on the international dimensions, in which each pillar would raise different aspects of international cooperation.
# Discussion on the «Three Domains» framework of Planetary Economics

R. Guesnerie (1)

(1) Paris School of Economics, Paris, France

Will present a discussion of the Economic framework presented in the book «Planetary Economics» and debate the merits (or not) of its approach and the resulting policy prognosis

O-2237b-01

# Evaluating Common Futures: Rethinking Prescriptivism and Descriptivism

K. Mintz-Woo (1)

(1) Doktoratsskolleg - Climate Change, Philosophy, Graz, Austria

Stern's (2007) report has engendered an interesting methodological debate among climate economists. In evaluations of climate policy, assigning values to some key moral parameters (e.g. in the Ramsey formula, the pure rate of climate change η, the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption η) weighs the interests of future generations more or less strongly. This influences conclusions about the evaluation of damages and how imperative it is to respond to these damages.

In IPCC SAR WG3, Arrow et al. (1996) called the participants of this debate 'descriptivists' and 'prescriptivists'. Descriptivists like Hutt (1940); Mange (1995); Nordhaus (1994, 2008) think that, by appealing to (empirical) market data, they can avoid making their own value judgments. This view contrasts with prescriptivists (e.g. Arrow et al. 1996; Broome 1994, 2012; Dasgupta 2008; Stern 2007), who have argued that explicitly weighing the moral import of parameter assignments is an unavoidable part of addressing these types of long-term policy evaluations.

In this presentation, I have two contributions. First, I intend to help classify these methodologies among ethical theories, to help incorporate moral philosophical contributions. Second, in the case of the Ramsey framework, I introduce new worries for both the descriptive and prescriptive positions. These worries come from application of recent behavioral psychological theories: prospect theory and heuristic theory.

First, to understand the positions in a philosophical context, it is necessary to recognize that there is an important presupposition underlying the debate. I argue that economists have a particular metaethical orientation with respect to assigning values to such parameters: they are subjectivist.

I argue further that the two economic groups (descriptivist/ prescriptivist) represent a disagreement between two subjectivist views: social constructivism and expert judgment. However, there are well-known economic problems with the descriptive methodology of assigning values to these moral parameters based on market data alone (Arrow et al. 1996; Broome 1994). First, we do not operate in a perfectly competitive market, and market distortions prevent price signals from reflecting the full social costs. Second, it is not clear that individuals make market decisions with consideration of future generations; it is much more plausible that individuals are acting on personal time preference. Third, we do not see safe assets with maturities on climate impact timescales.

To avoid these issues, one might suggest that the moral parameters in the Ramsey formula be investigated directly from market participants. There is a shortcut with η, for example, since under utilitarian assumptions, η characterizes both inequity aversion and risk aversion. Since the experimental paradigms for testing risk aversion for individuals are well-understood, one might try to reveal risk aversion from behaviour under risk.

My objection is that a psychological theory called prospect theory (Kahneman 2011; Kahneman and Tversky 1979) indicates that revealed risk aversion will not be appropriate for normative judgments about η. This is primarily because η considers the absolute value of changes in consumption

(and in utility) whereas prospect theory suggests that individuals will view outcomes as changes from a neutral reference point. This means that prospect theory tells us that risk aversion elicitation will fail to provide normative guidance.

These worries might lead one to take the expert judgment methodology. However, such judgments are precisely the kind of judgments that Kahneman (2011) warns might be subject to heuristic evaluation. We might substitute a more easily accessible quantities in for η. Instead of asking "What is the elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption [i.e. η]?" one could answer a question that is more easily answered, such as "What is the psychological value of imagining having different levels of consumption?" Affective responses to having a various restricted consumption patterns are easily accessible to guide the decision-making process, but can distort it (Finucane 2000). It is also easier to comprehend one's own response to consumption over time than to explicitly consider intergenerational distributions. This second worry should also be accounted for in expert judgment.

O-2237b-02

# Methodological foundations of policy-making in sustainability transitions

JF. Mercure (1); H. Pollitt, (2); N. Edwards (3); J. Viñales (4)

(1) University of Cambridge, Land Economy, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (2) Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) The Open University, Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom; (4) University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Policy-makers currently face unprecedented challenges and uncertainty when taking decisions that simultaneously affect economic development, technology and the environment. A lack of consensus on the impacts of climate policy in this complex interacting system has analysed policy-making processes, and policy indecisiveness has generated stagnation in investment decision-making, at the core of economic development. It is not clear to policy-makers to reconcile economic policy supporting growth with climate change mitigation, and it is not clear how effective policies are likely to be.

This paper argues that policy-making based on conventional equilibrium science and economics is not fine-grained enough to capture the complexities of real-world human behaviour and its diversity, leaving a wide uncertainty gap for policy-making. We suggest that the use of dynamical methodologies involving complexity science coupled to behavioural science with sophisticated uncertainty analysis can provide appropriate tools to understand policy issues that involve a high degree of cross-sectoral interplay and correlations between agents, even at the aggregate level. This is not be used in a feedback loop with researchers in policy and law, in order to test potential policy packages while assessing their feasibility in the policy process.

We describe how policy-related interactions between each of three critical interrelated areas: technological change, the macroeconomy, and the natural environment, could be dynamically represented in much greater detail, allowing better representation of feedback processes related to policy choice. We describe what impact these developments would have on our predictive power and ability to constructively inform coupled technology-economy-environmental policy-making aimed at addressing climate change. We identify three areas of environmental policy where the high degree of behavioural correlation (positive re-informing feedbacks) and/or behavioural diversity makes their analysis impractical using conventional methods, and where the application of this methodology could be determinant for gaining appropriate insight for policy making: (1) the analysis of green growth, (2) cross-sectoral impacts of sector specific policies (e.g. biofuels), and (3) the effectiveness of policy for emissions reductions in consumer based sectors (e.g. private transport). By providing a concrete example, we suggest how a wider adoption of this approach could provide a step change in our ability to address the complex policy problems raised by sustainability transitions.
# A framework to manage national decarbonization regimes

D. Kammen (1); J.P. Carvallo, (1); P. Hidalgo-Gonzalez (1)
(1) University of California Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America

There is widespread agreement that mitigating global warming to prevent disruptive climate change requires nations or regions to internalize the global externality of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The most straightforward approach is to establish a price on carbon emissions, either directly through a carbon tax or indirectly through a cap-and-trade market mechanism. Several studies attempt to find an "optimal" price of carbon that depends largely on intertemporal consumption preferences (notably discount rates) and the estimated "damage function" that changes in weather, crop yields, and productivity, among others, impose to the global economy. These models, however, provide little theoretical insight into the dynamics of the decarbonization transition and they cannot inform the consequences of different carbon prices in the evolution of a socio-technical system. Many jurisdictions are considering incremental carbon prices without acknowledging the existence of technological tipping points triggered by specific carbon prices that suggest stable but more aggressive earlier action. We use high temporal and spatial resolution model SWITCH(see, e.g. Mileva, et al., 2013; Carvallo, Hidalgo-Gonzalez, and Kammen, 2014) to study the effect of the trajectories of prices for carbon emissions on the evolution of power systems. We have developed this linear programming optimization tool and utilized it to examine energy and climate objectives for distinct models of four different regions: the Western U.S., China, Chile, and Nicaragua. For each of these regions we find a common pattern of non-additive effects of increasing carbon prices and non-linear/

non-decreasing marginal abatement costs. Despite the significant differences in the current energy mix and local resources in these regions, we find that tipping points at ~$30/ton and ~$60/ton lead to significant 'transformative phases' in each system. Specifically, as these carbon prices are reached we observe significant changes in the energy investment portfolio that would not likely have taken place with simply small, incremental, changes in carbon prices. Our analyses for each particular region suggest significantly different socio-technical evolution pathways for each area depending on an initial choice of carbon prices and its interaction with other policies. For example, in Chile carbon prices below $30 favor entrance of natural gas, while higher prices make renewable energy sources economical but impose different operational restrictions in the grid that require a different set of investment decisions. In the case of China, a high-adoption of renewable energy stage and a carbon capture and sequestration stage are defined before and after a $10/ton price respectively, with major transmission infrastructure implications. We propose a framework of decarbonization regimes with four critical stages: an earlier stage of natural gas/nuclear replacement; a second stage with higher renewable energy penetration; a third stage defined by earlier retirement of coal plants; and a fourth stage with minimal marginal gains from higher prices. We use this framework to recommend appropriate supplementary environmental and technology policies to achieve mitigation goals.

## References:

Carvallo, Juan Pablo, Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia and Daniel M. Kammen (2014) Envisioning a Sustainable Chile, Natural Resources Defense Council, http://www.nrdc.org/international/chile-LCOE.asp

Mileva, A., Nelson, J. H., Johnston, J., and Kammen, D. M. (2013) "SunShot Solar Power Reduces Costs and Uncertainty in Future Low-Carbon Electricity Systems," ES&T, 47 (16), 9053 - 9060.dx.doi.org/10.1021/es401898f

# 2238 - Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Science in Collaboration for Our Common Future

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2238-01

#### Collaboration of Indigenous Science and Western Science to Protect Landscapes and Our Common Futures

A. Poelina (1)

(1) MADJULLA, PO BOX 2747, Broome WA, Australia

Indigenous people of the world have unique knowledge systems that can contribute to all fields of scientific endeavors, particularly of generational experiences of being living witness to changing biodiversity and cultural landscapes as documented in our report titled Indigenous Engagement with Science towards deeper understanding (see http://www.innovation.gov.au).

The major challenge of generating and maintaining Indigenous knowledge systems and intergenerational practice is not simply an issue of science engagement; it is an issue of international importance for the earth's co-existence with humanity. The solutions presented by Indigenous researchers/scientists, and knowledge holders are founded in a trans-disciplinary approach of collective wisdom, an approach that recognizes and celebrates unity in diversity. The opportunity needs to be realized to invest in future partnerships which value and include Indigenous and western scientist/researchers and practitioners working together.

These partnerships must recognize and respect the earth has rights and we work together. We must guarantee custodiatry of the commons, reliable prosperity and sustainable world development. The United Nation Declaration of Human Rights (1948) promotes the wellbeing and sacredness of all life not just human life (see http://www.un.org/en/documents/udhr/). In the words of twenty Indigenous Philosophers in the Redstone Statement (2010), we are at a tipping point, and it is

therefore essential for non-Indigenous and Indigenous, native and non-native people to act now, to hold and care for Mother Earth in order to protect the sacredness of all life (see http://www.indigenouenvirsummit10.unt.edu). This world belongs to all of us and we must again learn to live, love and work together to protect the sacredness of all life.

As traditional custodians in Australia we recognise and value the protection of all inhabitants who are connected to ancient geological and living water systems; rivers, arteries giving life to our dry sun burnt country. We have a responsibility as scientist, researchers and practitioners to generate multiple bodies of information and practice to inform our role not as activist but rather as activist. I am passionate about working in a dialogic action way to bring about transformational change in the recognition and promotion of the multiple values of this uniquely rich Australian cultural landscape. Late last year with fellow Australians we showcased and shared the places we love, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBh0gnzwuI

The Kimberley region of Western Australia is considered one of the last great wildernesses of the world. Vast areas of the region were National Heritage Listed in 2011 for multiple world values containing vast ramsar wetlands a rich feeding ground for extensive species of migratory birds, the world's largest dinosaur footprints and extensive trackways, ancient rock art, pristine coast lines, rich ecosystems, and unique living Indigenous cultures co-existing with Asian and European heritage. We need transparent participatory planning, which values existing natural assets as capital and includes people in planning. My vision is the planning, development and delivery of a Marooodwarra (Fitzroy River) and the Broome Coast Global Geo Park. Investment needs to be mobilised to conduct a Feasibility Study to build on the recognition of national cultural and environmental heritage landscapes. The time is right to build a body of evidence, for valuing these multiple assets as a geo world parks. We need to map alternative strategies for innovation and diverse economies on country, which are relevant to the time and a sustainable common future against climate chaos.
# Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Collaboration: Essential for Addressing Climate Change in the 21st Century

J. Hook (1)

(1) Citizen of the Cherokee Nation, El Indio, Texas, United States of America

Indigenous peoples worldwide possess extensive knowledge that is essential for environmental and human preservation in the coming century. Many scientists, both Indigenous and non-Indigenous, believe that we are at a "tipping point" in maintaining the health of the environment, and consequently, of humanity, and that action must be taken immediately. In order to best utilize Indigenous cultural and cognitive resources in addressing Climate Change issues, respectful, trusting, mutually beneficial relationships and partnerships must be built. This requires that "Western" scientists and policy-makers develop strategies specifically in Indigenous communities and understand their shared interests. While Traditional peoples and national or state governments are frequently in conflict with each other, examples of collaboration can be found.

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami provided one of the most powerful illustrations of the value of Indigenous knowledge. Indigenous communities fared far better than others, and commanded the attention of "Western" scientists, especially in the United States.

In meetings with Indigenous communities in Sarawak (Malaysia) subsequent to the tsunami, with the Tatar-Baskiri villagers of Ufa-Shigiri (Siberia, Russia), and with many American Indian Nations in the central United States, I kept hearing the same shared concerns: the need for cultural preservation, protection of Indigenous land, and a desire to engage with other Indigenous peoples and with Non-Indigenous leaders. Exploration of these shared issues led to requests for mutual dialogue, and from 2007-2010 four annual Indigenous Student Videoconferences were held. Participants from Comanche and Kiowa American Indian Nations, Siberian Baskirs and Tatars, and Sarawakian communities discussed Climate Change issues and related impacts on their communities. They shared and explored specific responses. Simultaneously, Traditional leaders expressed the belief that environmental threats needed to be addressed immediately. These concerns were clearly articulated in 2010 through the "Redstone Statement," a product of the International Summit on Indigenous Environmental Philosophy held in a Kiowa American Indian community of central Oklahoma, United States. Individuals from Indigenous communities met initially to compile case studies of climate change impacts. In the first meeting, however, a representative from the American Indian Ponca Nation challenged us to draft a statement articulating perspectives on environmental concerns and necessary responses. The subsequent process produced a consensus document describing a critical "tipping point," the product of environmental and cultural imbalance. The document was translated into Spanish and Russian, and is being used as a basis for education and action in Indigenous communities from Russia to Australia to Mexico.

Effective partnerships are only possible when «Western» scientists come to understand and respect the concerns expressed by Indigenous voices. Non-Indigenous scientists, policy-makers and politicians must recognize the importance of Indigenous participation in planning and implementing mitigation and adaptation efforts. They can only be accomplished if the non-Indigenous put effort into learning how to work effectively in Indigenous settings. An understanding of cultural perspectives such as holistic world-views, the importance of maintaining balance, intimate relationships with the environment and sacred places, and long-term sustainability is essential to building authentic relationships. Additionally, non-Indigenous partners must spend time on-site in Indigenous communities, meeting with leaders and other knowledge-keepers. Finally, mechanisms and venues must be created through which Indigenous and non-Indigenous representatives can meet as equals to plan, explore options, draft strategies, and begin implementation projects.

There are examples of successful collaboration. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Tribal Science Council began bringing Indigenous scientists and knowledge-

keepers together with non-Indigenous scientists for collaborative efforts in 1999. Effective partnering is not only possible, it is essential!

## O-2238-01

### Indigenous knowledge from Land to lab to land: A framework to improve the flow for climate change adaptation

V. Gupta (1)

(1) National Institute of Industrial Engineering, Economics, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is not only vital for sustainability of livelihoods of indigenous people, it is also vital for the sustainability of natural resource. The efficiency and efficacy of this traditional knowledge on agricultural farms, forests, water, households, community resources etc. are to be well recognised in the interests of the humanity and sustainability at large. Redstone Statement recognises that indigenous people across the globe have been confronting climate change and variability on regular basis due to heavy dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods. These hardships beside others have made them develop deep understanding of the natural resources and the climate they live in. Their TEK includes prediction of disasters, mitigation and an adaptation to climate change besides the flow of water and pressure of natural resources. Indigenous communities have been transmitting knowledge for generations regarding judicious use of resource and restricting resource depletion.

The Indigenous knowledge prevailing in customs, beliefs, practices and wisdom is rediscovered in modern science. Indigenous knowledge is documented and transmitted through the flow of oral and ancient texts. The modern science is experimented, analysed and documented in the labs under ideal resource conditions whereas Indigenous knowledge is practiced on forests, fields, and farms under actual climatic and resource conditions. Therefore new knowledge of modern science is to be built up on Indigenous knowledge without discrediting it. For sustainable planet, we need all stocks of indigenous and innovative knowledge which gets enhanced through continuous flow of it and supported by institution which is ethical in its framework. The ethno-ecological knowledge combined with ethno economics provides better understanding and choices to resolve these issues.

In India these aboriginal people are known as atavika and adivasi (indigenous), vanvasi (forest dwellers), girjan (hill people). These tribal communities as Bishnoi, Bhil, Cond, Santal, Bhatia and Khasis are living majorly in states of Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Meghalya and Himalaya region in harmony with nature. The farmers in arid and semi-arid regions rotate crops and change the dates for sowing seeds as per climate conditions across India. Koli community of Mumbai change their fish catch pattern to enhance availability of fish in future, Navdanya programme promotes biodiversity conservation with the help of local tribal people. Religious and tribal traditions such as temple forests and sacred groves, rainwater harvesting, maintaining landscape heterogeneity and biodiversity through varietal flora and fauna and growing medicinal plants are just few examples of their efforts.

The aboriginal communities in developing countries like India face many issues alongside their hardship of livelihood like inequality in the access of resources, unequal distribution of growth, increasing urge of growth and consumerism all have impacted the livelihood dependent on natural resources as well as the sustainability of available resources. In many cases natural resources are reaching to the stage of economic depletion. The valuation and integration of their knowledge systems is not only desirable but essential for equity, empowerment, and security of underprivileged communities. Besides natural resource management, Endeavours of integrating traditional ecological knowledge with western science requires due recognition for local long lasting cultural and institutional framework. Within this framework, their security of land, food, energy and livelihood and knowledge is to be ensured through policy framework. In this discussion I propose to provide a framework for traditional ecological knowledge security through innovative market and non-market incentives and discerning the value of the wealth of Indigenous knowledge for our sustainable common future.
## Integration of Indigenous Knowledge with ICTs in coping and adapting to effects of climate change and variability on Agriculture in Kajiado County, Kenya

C. Manei (1)

(1) University of Nairobi, Agricultural economis, Nairobi, Kenya

Climate change threatens production's stability and productivity. In many areas of the world where agricultural productivity is already low and the means of coping with adverse events are limited, climate change is expected to reduce productivity to even lower levels and make uncertainties in agriculture higher. To help in coping with the negative effects of climate change, local people employ traditional indigenous-knowledge based practices. This local based knowledge, which has evolved over several hundreds of thousands of years in tandem with the domestication of plants and animals, is critical for responding to climate change and variability effects at the local level. ICTs have the potential improve access to this knowledge among other relevant information and social networking opportunities. The research was carried out to assess relevant Indigenous knowledge used by Indigenous people to cope and adapt to climate change and variability effects therefore managing risks and uncertainties in agriculture as well as evaluate opportunities for utilizing ICTs to communicate this information. Results indicates that farmers have shifted to farming historically known drought tolerant crops, rain water harvesting, irrigation, use of organic manure, traditional methods of treating crops pests and diseases, change in planting time, preservation of pastures, indigenous food preservation methods, vaccination, farmers are also increasingly relying on their own indigenous knowledge in predicting weather patterns compared to scientific knowledge. Various communication mechanisms taking advantage of ICTs such as radios and mobile phones are emerging as viable tools for dissemination of relevant information to the farmers because they are affordable and use of local language which is easily understood by farmers.

### O-2238-03

## "Blue-ice": Framing climate change and reframing climate change adaptation from the Indigenous peoples' perspective in the northern boreal forest of Ontario, Canada

D. Golden (1); P. Smith, (1); CA. Audet, (2)

(1) Lakehead University, Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada; (2) 90 Ameki Place, Office of the regional chief, Fort William First Nation, ON P7J 1L3, Canada

The northern boreal forest in Ontario, Canada, in the sub- Arctic above the 51st parallel, is the territorial homeland of the Cree, Ojibwe, and Ojicree Nations. These Nations are represented by the political organization Nishnawbe Aski Nation (NAN). January 6-March 31, 2011 the researchers and NAN collaborated in a study to record observations of changes in the forest environment attributed to climate change and share and exchange information and perspectives about climate change. Data were collected from ten First Nation communities across a geographic area of ~110,800 km2 (43,000 mi2). We explore climate change impacts through the lens of "blue-ice", a term embedded in their languages across the fieldwork area and reframe adaptation in the First Nations' perspective and worldwide changes in blue-ice on landscape is affecting transportation in traditional activities such as hunting and fishing, as well as the delivery of essential community supplies. The word 'adaptation' linked to climate change does not exist in their languages and the term is associated with European colonization. We propose the term 'continuity' to reflect the First Nation worldview. Our recommendation is giving First Nations' perspectives and knowledge of their territorial landscape a foundational role in the development of climate change policy for Ontario's northern boreal forest.

## Forest Carbon in Amazonia: The Unrecognized Contribution of Indigenous Territories and Protected Natural Areas

W. Walker (1) ; A. Baccini (1) ; S. Schwartzman (2) ; S. Rios (3) ; MA. Oliveira-Miranda (4) ; C. Augusto (5) ; M. Ruiz (6) ; C. Soria Arrasco (3) ; B. Ricardo (5) ; R. Smith (3) ; C. Meyer (2) ; JC. Jintiach (7) ; E. Vasquez Campos (7)

(1) The Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, United States of America; (2) Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC; (3) United States of America; (3) Instituto del Comun/IBC, Lima, Peru; (4) Provita, Caracas, Venezuela; (5) Instituto Socioambiental/ISA, São Paulo, Brazil; (6) Fundación GAIA Amazonas, Bogotá, Colombia; (7) Coordinadora de las Organizaciones Indigenas de la Cuenca Amazónica/COICA, Quito, Ecuador

More than half (52%; 4.1 million km2) of Amazonia's tropical ecosystems are contained within an extensive network of 2,344 Indigenous Territories (ITs) and 610 Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) spanning nine South American nations. These cornerstones of Amazon conservation are widely recognized for their exceptional biological, cultural, and linguistic diversity, and serve as both social and natural barriers to frontier expansion and fire. Carbon sequestration is a widely-acknowledged and increasingly-valued function of tropical forest ecosystems; however, until recently the information needed to assess the carbon storage capacity of Amazonian Indigenous Territories (ITs) and Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) in a global context remained either lacking or out of reach. Here, as part of a novel north-south collaboration among Amazonian indigenous and NGO networks, scientists, and policy experts, we link newly compiled spatial data sets on pantropical abovenutre forest carbon density, Amazonian ITs and PNAs, and risks to their integrity from current pressures and/or near-term threats. We show that the nine-nation network of nearly 3,000 ITs and PNAs stores more carbon above ground (47,363 Mt) than all of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia combined (40,797 Mt), and despite the ostensibly secure status of these conservation cornerstones, a conservative risk assessment considering only ongoing and planned development projects puts nearly 20% of this carbon at risk, encompassing an area of tropical forest larger than Colombia. Peru and Chile combined. Our analysis suggests that the carbon stored across these landscapes is of a magnitude not previously appreciated in global terms, and is sufficient to either destabilize or contribute to the stabilization of the planet's atmosphere depending on the collective impact of ongoing and planned development projects. International recognition of and renewed investment in this globally vital network are therefore critical to ensuring their continued contribution to maintaining cultural identity, ecosystem integrity, and climate stability.

### O-2238-05

## Traditional knowledge and benefit-sharing in the 2015 agreement

A. Savaresi (1)

(1) University of Edinburgh, School of Law, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Scientists have increasingly recognized the role of traditional knowledge as a means to adapt to climate change. Yet, the international climate regime presently sees nothing on how traditional knowledge may be deployed and protected to tackle climate change. This state of affairs may, however, be about to change. States are considering including references to the use of the traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples and local communities in the new international agreement on climate change to be adopted in December 2015.

While it is too early to say whether references to traditional knowledge will be included in the new climate agreement, it is important to reflect on the implications of this possible development in the light of extant international instruments, especially those concerning biodiversity and human rights, which establish obligations to protect, maintain and promote traditional knowledge. This paper will therefore reflect on the scope for elaborating a common approach to the use of traditional knowledge under the climate regime, building on extant international law.
One area of crucial legal development on traditional knowledge is that concerning the interplay between the consent of indigenous peoples and fair and equitable benefit-sharing, as means to recognise, support and reward indigenous peoples and local communities for the contribution of their traditional knowledge to addressing global challenges. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), for example, requires its Parties to promote the application of traditional knowledge with the approval and involvement of its holders, and to encourage the sharing of benefits from its use with indigenous peoples and local communities. The Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit- sharing to the CBD requires its Parties to ensure that the use of traditional knowledge associated with genetic resources for research and development purposes (including for the development of climate-related technologies) is subject to the first informed consent (or approval and involvement) of indigenous peoples and local communities, as well as to benefit-sharing. Equally, the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (ITPGR) recognizes farmers' right to participate equitably in the benefits arising from the utilization of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. The need to maintain traditional, often underutilized, crop varieties in the face of climate change has been explicitly recognized in the ITPGR framework. The ITPGR Benefit-sharing Fund has supported a number of projects focusing on management and use of plant genetic resources by indigenous peoples and traditional communities for adaptation to climate change. Finally, even though it does not make explicit reference to benefit-sharing, the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples asserts indigenous peoples' right to maintain, control, protect and develop their traditional knowledge.

Presently, the negotiating text for the 2015 agreement mentions traditional knowledge in connection with adaptation to climate change, capacity building, and technology development and transfer. It does not say that indigenous peoples and local communities should receive a share of the benefits accrued from the utilization of traditional knowledge, or that they should consent before others can make use of such knowledge. The proposed paper will investigate how the law and practice emerged under the CBD, the Nagoya Protocol, the ITPGR and international human rights law could or should influence the development of the climate regime with regard to the use of traditional knowledge for climate adaptation purposes. It will argue that biodiversity and human rights law and practice embody internationally agreed understanding on matters upon which states have already reached painstakingly negotiated consensus. As parties to the climate change regime, including traditional knowledge in the 2015 agreement, it is important to consider lessons that can be learnt from extant approaches to account for crucial equity considerations associated with the use of traditional knowledge.

## 2238-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2238-01

#### Quantitative analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) as a Milestone Towards Negative Emissions in Egypt

##### A. Batisha (1)

(1) Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) analysis has been developed with the objective of providing an integrated perspective on Environmental sustainability. Emission baseline has been analyzed on a macro sector basis with a focus on key sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use and Waste. Data has been collected from available public sources (local and international). A web based IPCC Inventory Software supporting users of the IPCC Guidelines has been used. Additional support to the greenhouse gas emission inventory community by giving inventory compiles a platform for exchange of all the current information and data they need, including a wide range of emission factors has been provided by means of the IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFD). All Greenhouse Gas emissions divided into IPCC Guidelines Categories may be calculated from sectoral tables. National Key Category Analysis is implemented by performing a quantitative analysis of

the relationships between the level and the trend of each category's emissions and removals and total national emissions and removals. The paper concludes that Sharing of research information may enable the African countries to use or develop emission factors that are more applicable than the IPCC default emission factors and may help to improve the global status of GHG inventories in a cost-effective way.

### P-2238-02

#### Toward a transdisciplinary framework for inter-relating indigenous knowledge systems and disaster risk reduction

##### MA. Baudoin (1); S. Athayde (2); S. Lambert (3); V. Okorie (4)

(1) Climate and Development Initiative, geology, cape Town, South Africa; (2) University of Florida, Center for latin american studies, Gainesville, United States of America; (3) Lincoln University, Christchurch, New Zealand; (4) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Perceptions of natural hazards and climate change vary across regions, societies and culture. While "western" expert-based knowledge focus on measuring, defining and forecasting hazards' occurrence, frequency and localization, local perceptions at the community level often referred to as "indigenous knowledge" (IK) - adopts a context-specific and holistic view of natural, climate-related and human-made hazards and disasters. Indigenous knowledge systems intertwine cultural, symbolic, technological knowledge, natural resource management practices, beliefs and worldsviews in perceiving, preparing and managing disasters.

This talk presents the preliminary results of a follow-up project from the Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA) Fellows of the International Social Science Council, involving indigenous and non-indigenous researchers and practitioners. Acknowledging the diversity of perceptions and understandings of risks, this collaborative work aims to develop an exploratory transdisciplinary framework drawing from literature review as well as from experiences and challenges faced by indigenous peoples in developed (USA, New Zealand) and developing regions (Nigeria, Brazil). The framework can be applied to foster dialogue and guide research and policy-making involving indigenous peoples in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), recognizing limitations and power issues in coordinating different knowledge systems, and respecting indigenous peoples' self-determination, worldsviews and concerns.

With an objective to enhance cross-disciplinary learning, the proposed framework offers a broader understanding of disaster risks among indigenous people, scientists, practitioners and managers. Its structure encompasses (and adapts) the usual three phases of the DRR process, represented by indigenous symbols: preparedness (pre-disaster); response (during disaster); and recovery (post-disaster), adding a fourth transversal component, critical during the three phases, and related to framing, understanding and fostering dialogue across knowledge systems. Thus, the framework distinguishes common and contrasting features of DRR and CCA across diverse regions, cultures and types of disasters; it presents nuances of 'risk perception' and 'risk interpretation' among indigenous communities in different countries and contexts, as well as their creative responses or 'risk action'.

The outcomes of this study will be used to connect, foster exchange of ideas and experience, and facilitate training and learning among representatives of indigenous communities who face natural, industrial and climate change-related hazards. Moreover, this research contributes to foster transdisciplinary dialogue and research on indigenous, academic and practical knowledge systems towards DRR and CCA in a global scale.

### P-2238-03

#### The Coastal Community as Context for Culture-Based Science Literacy

##### H. Buenvenida (1)

(1) Department of Education, Science Education, Roxas City, Philippines
People in a community who are closely connected to the local surroundings were often the first to notice their surroundings. This is because their knowledge is derived from long-term observational data maintained through an oral tradition. It is for this reason that the knowledge held by the community needs to be reflected in local classrooms. When we think of something or discover a new fact, we also think of all the interconnections between that fact and everything else. And so it is with their science: It is the knowledge that is documented by Gwinon rock art, preserved beneath skins of silica crystals leached by weathering from sandstone through a long history that spans millennia of changing climates from estimates of 25,000 years past up to the present day; the film GWION documents Paddy Nyawarra repairing a sentinel Gwinon figure standing guard at the junction of three Wunan districts in 1999. Wunan laws defining human identity through land contradicts the assumptive stereotype of the "nomadic aboriginal" with nothing to show that beginning of the ruling, but an artist called Wibalma. They can learn how the oldest society to record themselves through art began when the visionary artist Wibalma created the first sacred object, not of an animal but an ethic at the core of social order. Wibalma's sacred object of Justice was the catalyst bringing together many nomadic tribes, to find a consensus around the stone table at Dududu.ngari and fuse their identity with their country forever in Wunan law. Lines of stones mark positions where they stood in line to announce by oath, their homeland and name, in sequence from the central desert to the tropical north coast across to the western coastline. Aboriginal councillors who represent their country in public meetings today still follow the Wunan order of representing various districts.

There were identified barriers in the teaching and learning situation in coastal communities: academic, situational, and dispositional. The set of learning materials represents my attempt to delineate a preparation content covering how regular classrooms and schools should be designed to ensure all students have appropriate opportunities to learn effectively. This, of course, includes the many that manifest commonplace behavior, learning, and emotional problem. However these materials develop are targeted to address the academic barrier. Nonetheless, parallel to the development of the materials, an approach (culture-based: contextualization; and community-based learning) was also espoused to enrich the material in its delivery to the mainstream classroom. The materials represent my interest in developing a learning situation that would allow some usual problems in their place; pollution, health, environmental protection, climate change mitigation, disaster risk reduction and preparedness and biodiversity. Relative to this, training, seminars, workshops are also recommended to address the said barriers.

This research suggests means and ways on how to respond to the question of how to support science teaching in rural and coastal settings and frames challenges to student learning as disconnects between community-based and school-based forms of science. This disconnect occurs when students do not see how the science in schools has value in or relates to their lived experiences and when schools do not see how the lived experiences of learners have value in learning and doing science. I have presented here a case of what I call «connected science», I have presented here real-world problems and school- community partnerships as contextual scaffolds to bridge these diverse funds of knowledge.

The study developed two important theoretical contributions. First a model on how to create culturally relevant community-based learning through: (a) mining local funds of knowledge from the community, (b) developing a contextual-learning strategy for coastal communities, (d) developing a tailor-fitted instructional material for coastal communities and (d) teaching culture-based, and context-based science in schools. The second contribution is the Theory of Community Learning Exchange Valorization. This theory attempts to conglomerate conceptions and notions about the "mining" of the community funds of knowledge and the way this knowledge can be "valorized" and be "given back" to the community.

On a final note drawing on the assets of the community we help schools build citizens while infusing academic course work with meaning and relevance. Rather than diluting the school curriculum, community-based learning strategies increase the intensity of learning and the likelihood that young people will transfer knowledge and skills to new situations. By fostering student interest in their respective communities, these strategies sow the seeds of lifelong learning. When students see themselves as citizens, they take responsibility for what happens to their neighborhoods, communities, and country at large.

P-2238-04

Wunan Law and Human Identity through Connections with Country

J. Doring (1)

(1) Pathway, Broome WA, Australia

In the Kimberley region of North west Australia, much local knowledge is not only relevant to current scientific observations, but continues the oldest recorded human history of living WITH country. Once the first rock art appears documenting the evolution of the Wunan social order, we have ancient evidence of people sharing a complex legal association with landscapes that weave together identity and country binding people to environments inherited in perpetuity. Wunan law remains documented by Gwinon rock art, preserved beneath skins of silica crystals leached by weathering from sandstone through a long history that spans millennia of changing climates from estimates of 25,000 years past up to the present day; the film GWION documents Paddy Nyawarra repairing a sentinel Gwinon figure standing guard at the junction of three Wunan districts in 1999. Wunan laws defining human identity through land contradicts the assumptive stereotype of the "nomadic aboriginal" with nothing to show that beginning of the ruling, but an artist called Wibalma. They can learn how the oldest society to record themselves through art began when the visionary artist Wibalma created the first sacred object, not of an animal but an ethic at the core of social order. Wibalma's sacred object of Justice was the catalyst bringing together many nomadic tribes, to find a consensus around the stone table at Dududu.ngari and fuse their identity with their country forever in Wunan law. Lines of stones mark positions where they stood in line to announce by oath, their homeland and name, in sequence from the central desert to the tropical north coast across to the western coastline. Aboriginal councillors who represent their country in public meetings today still follow the Wunan order of representing various districts.

Wunan law proscribes social identity as living connections to country so over time Gwinon artists were motivated to portray human figures with unique extensions to their body, making specific social connections to flora and fauna. Many ancient Wunan law songs about birds and knowledge of Wanjina and Gwinon rock art survive in Ngarininy culture as part of customary law, as declared by native title belatedly recognised by the Federal Court of Australia in 2005. The ancestral evidence documented with cameras by four Ngarininy munnumburra - experts in Wunan law, has been generously exhibited by three major museums in France. Now we can tell our children about a new generation of artists who are beginning to connect to every day life within their culture, and for published in Rock Art Research March 2014, Wunan is living evidence of the longest continuous stable social system documented by the human hand.

As documented through the graphic evidence of Gwinon artists, the Wunan law system has ordered sustainable land tenure connecting human to country for millennia. Aboriginal people across the Kimberley region continue to carry, but must struggle to preserve their ancestral legacy and protect fresh water resources in opposition to invasive mining projects. Observations of climate change must incorporate local knowledge, and across the north-west of Australia from desert to saltwater coastline, planners must include the pre-colonial Wunan map of water and country that gave each human being their individual identity. For example the name Nyawarra, refers to outcrosses of black basalt appearing in his Wunan district of Galeru.ngari damun. Wunan law preserves many insights into the natural history of this extensive region and provides a historically meaningful nomenclature of flora and fauna and local landscapes as the fundamental framework of knowledge for future research and education.

High on the rock wall of Aiyaguna covered with ancient paintings of the first matriarchs of visual metaphors signifying various stages of education throughout life. Starting from the roots of family blood and the single root of Wunan law, education proceeds into maturity once understanding the complex binary system of marriage and environmental relationships to country marked by two separated feet looking down. Then adults educate the new generation, symbolised by the ripening plum fruit when moonspoon rains fall from above. The elements and meanings of the painting are illustrated and described with verbative cultural evidence recorded on site by Ngarininy munnumburra - experts in Wunan law and the living bush.

P-2238-05

Toponymy of an occupation early hunter gatherers in marine Quintero

C. Fuentevilla (1)

(1) Universidad Arcis, Santiago, Santiago, Chile
This is a presentation of the state of the art of research conducted in a series of explorations in the line of rocks from San Fuentes Lace up Pirate's Cove area, in the town of Quintero, Chile, between 2011 and 2013. It describes the finding of lithic evidence in five archaeological sites observed from perforations in the rocks as water toponypony signaling; based on the experience of discontinuous occupation of marine hunter-gatherers. As a result of continental settlement in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs. This paleoenvironmental context generated conditions of survival, which according to weather representations, allowed the survival of anthropogenic. Paleoidalin presence. However the latitudinal gradient was also exposed to periods of cooling or neoglaciation. Therefore, while climate change was constant, it created new demands for adaptation in order to ensure the survival of hunter-gatherers. Therefore, their lithic technology fitted the necessary mobility of the group. A synchrony between their social structure and technology in understanding their decisions, represented in a toponymy of lithic signs to identify water as a source of survival. Keywords: Hunter-gatherers, paleoenvironment, lithic toponypony, Paleoidalin, climate change.

P-2238-06

Indigenous Knowledge as Local Response to Globalization and Climate Change in Nigeria/Africa

G. Nwaka (1)

(1) Abia State University, Utuvalu, Humanities and Social Sciences, Utuvalu, Abia State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

As we consider the Post-2015 Development Agenda for Africa, indigenous knowledge may prove to be "the single most important knowledge resource not yet mobilized in the development enterprise". Critics of African development liken the current pattern of development in the continent to building a house from the roof down as "all the institutions of modernization appear to be suspended over societies that have no firm connection to them, and whose indigenous institutions, even when oriented in the right direction, lack the necessary scaffolding to connect them to their modern surrogates". Africa contributes least to, suffers the greatest consequences of climate change. While the industrialized and more affluent countries are rightly being called upon to take greater responsibility for the current global environmental and economic crises, Marshall Sahls has rightly emphasized the need for all peoples "to indigenize the forces of global modernity, and turn them to their own ends", as the real impact of globalization depends largely on the responses developed at the local level. How can Africa engage with globalization, and cope more effectively with the worsening threats of flooding, droughts and other emergencies that result from extreme weather conditions?

For a long time African customs and traditions were misconceived as irrational and incompatible with the conventional strategies of development. But the current global economic and ecological crises have exposed flaws in the Western neo-liberal model of development which is largely to blame for these problems, and for widening inequalities within and between nations. With the obvious underperformance of the Millennium Development Goals in Africa, there is now renewed interest in an alternative approach which emphasizes the cultural dimension of development, and the overlooked potential of indigenous knowledge. This paper considers how indigenous knowledge and practice can be put to good use in support of good governance, agriculture and natural resource management, poverty alleviation, and the mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Although poverty may sometimes force people in the developing world to use resources unsustainably, most traditional African societies have deeply entrenched ideas about environmental protection and sustainability since their livelihoods depend largely on the land and on the stability of the ecosystem. They believe that land and other forms of land are secure between generations, and the present day users on behalf of dead ancestors and future generations. Chief Nana Oafi Atta of Ghana emphasized to a British official that "land belongs to a large family of which many are dead, a few a living, and countless hosts are yet unborn".

The paper argues that the indigenous knowledge movement is not only a useful and creative way to respond to globalization, it also has great potential for the mitigation

and adaptation to climate change. While Africa cannot now contemplate an insular and entirely home grown approach to its development, indigenous knowledge offers a model for rethinking and redirecting the development process, and for enlisting positive traditional values and institutions in a way that enables and empowers local actors to take part in their own development. Development agents, researchers and donors, who often assume a knowledge or capacity vacuum in Africa, should instead try to tap into indigenous knowledge for locally appropriate ways of forecasting weather systems, traditional techniques of soil management, pest and disease control, adopting suitable crop and animal varieties, and so on. By building on the indigenous we can make development more participatory and sustainable, and also promote intercultural dialogue in African development.

P-2238-07

Local Management of Andean Wetlands in Sajama National Park, Bolivia

PL. Pacheco Molinedo (1); E. Villarroel (1); A. Domic (2); J. Capriles (3); C. Espinoza (1)

(1) Agua Sustentable, Climate Change Adaptation, la Paz, Bolivia; (2) Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Campus Universitario de Cotaxa, Barherario nacional de bolivia., La Paz, Bolivia; (3) Instituto de Alta Investigacion, Universidad de tarapacá, antofagasta 1520, casilla 6-d, Arica, Chile

Andean wetlands or bofedales are commonly used by indigenous communities for livestock production. Decisions regarding management of bofedales involve the active participation of local people and their social institutions. Consequently, any action addressing emerging challenges must be implemented in coordination and agreement with local actors. This decision process requires an understanding of the local socio-economic and cultural dynamics, especially those related to land and natural resource management. In many Andean communities, the ayllu is the institution that governs decisions on regional land use. However, in the face of increasing challenges such as climate change and population growth, use of the ayllu has declined in favor of individual decision-making. Here we discuss how the Andean camelid herders of Sajama National Park in highland Bolivia rely on both the ayllu and family-level decision-making to manage their pastoralist landscapes, including their bofedales. Using a rights mapping methodology, we describe how water and wetlands are managed, and determine which decisions are taken at the community level and which are made at the family level. Our results show that the Andean collective organization networks are still significant for managing the system at a regional scale and possibly determinant for mitigating risks associated with climate change on sensitive ecosystems such as bofedales.

Since the Spanish conquest in the 16th century, the world view of native Andean indigenous communities had interacted with the dominant sociopolitical systems of the colonial and later republican period (Schiffers 1992, Regalsky 1994, Platt et al 2006). One important element of confrontation between these two visions was the form of land and natural resource management: collective vs individual. Indigenous communities adapted and developed a number of cultural and productive organizational strategies to cope with the new forms of domination, trying to maintain the logic and vision of the Andean traditional management strategies (Orlove 1977; Platt 1982; Spalding 1984).

One of the main strategies in the Andean world was access to the greatest possible number of ecological zones, which was a strategy to achieving food self-sufficiency and also an important risk management tool, mainly for climatic risks (Murra 1972; Brownman 1983; Regalsky 1991).

Because of the social and economic importance of wetlands, especially for camelid (lampa and alpaca) herders, communities in these areas periodically revise and adapt institutional arrangements for sustainable management. High Andean wetlands, known locally as bofedales, represent one of the most productive native vegetation types of the puna. However, they are seriously threatened by climate change as they depend on constant water flow, which is mostly assured by annual glacier melt precipitation (Squeo et al 2006; Yager et al 2008; Rathus 2012). In view of these threats, it is particularly important to document how local wetland management strategies are being adapted to cope with emerging challenges (Pinto-Romero 2011; Verzijl and Guerrero Quispe 2013).
## Conclusions

The study shows the ability of Andean communities to face up to social and environmental challenges in Sajama National Park. The 5 ayllus that are part of the Park have managed their natural resources, which include Andean wetlands, since precolonia times. In doing so, they have maintained a balance between permanence (the principles and world vision of the Andean culture) and flexibility (changing strategies for adapting to constant environmental, sociopolitical, and economic change).

Finally, we raise the question of how the process of collective vs family-based decision-making will develop in future. Adapting to change appears to have accelerated in the last decades, and market influence is becoming more intrusive in the ayllus' daily operations. It is worth asking if this process will lead to a gradual dismantling of the ayllu and the loss of one of the main strengths of Andean communities: collective organization networks.

## P-2238-08

# Indigenous knowledge for seasonal weather and climate forecasting across East Africa

M. Radeny (1); M. Nyasimi (1); J. Kinyangi (1); J. Recha (1) (1); D. Mubiri (2); H. Hahoo (3); D.Y. Ayal (4)

(1) ILRI, CAFS East Africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) NARO, Kawanda, Kampala, Uganda; (3) Sokoiné University, Agricultural engineering and land planning, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of; (4) UNISA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Advance knowledge of climate information is important in helping farmers make decisions about allocation of land, water, and agricultural inputs. It enhances their capacity to adapt to climate variably and climate change. Climate information coupled with agro-advisory services offers greater potential to manage climate related risks in the face of increasing uncertainty. While progress has been made in provision of climate services for farmers, significant gaps still exist with regard to downscaling location-specific forecasts, reliability, timeliness, and user-friendly climate information that effectively addresses the needs of farmers. Consequently, most farmers rely on indigenous knowledge (IK) for their seasonal forecasts, where locally observed variables and experiences are used to assess and predict the local weather conditions and particularly the onset of rains as it determines the sequence of many of the farm operations. However, IK experiences for climate forecasting are not widely documented and often passed on from one generation to the other through oral history and local expertise, creating a wide inter-generational gap between its custodians and the young generation.

This paper presents a synthesis of existing IK in weather forecasting across four sites in three East Africa countries — Borana (Ethiopia), Lushoto (Tanzania) and Holima and Rakai (Uganda). Across the sites, farmers and livestock herders use various local indicators to predict weather patterns, especially the onset, magnitude and cessation of the rainy seasons. The indicators can be grouped into three main categories: meteorological traditional indicators, astronomical indicators and biological indicators. Meteorological indicators commonly used to predict onset of rains included appearance of dark clouds, direction and strength of the wind, maximum and minimum temperature, plant responses to changing conditions, monitoring of the physical state of water and off-season advance indicators of cloud behavior at night. For instance, excessive heat and warming towards the end of the dry season indicates a likelihood of above normal rainfall. Similarly, high temperatures during the night indicates a likelihood of rainfall the next day. Astrological weather indicators include the position and appearance of the moon and sun. In Lushoto, the occurrence of a halo moon indicates the likelihood of the onset of rains for both monthly and major rain seasons. In Ethiopia, the Borana herders employ astrological indicators and interpret the alignment of celestial bodies including the size and appearance of the star, the brightness of the sun, and appearance and form of cloud cover. Biological indicators are further disengaged into animal and plant indicators. A change in animal behavior at the onset of rains is believed to be triggered by aroma from volatile compounds that increase in intensity when changes occur in humidity. In Uganda, the source from amphibians during day time and those of specific birds are used widely to estimate the likelihood

of the onset of rain. In Tanzania, appearance of certain physiological stages of insect populations, such as trips in the wetland indicates the likelihood of an above normal rainfall season. Plant indicators most frequently used in Uganda included the sprouting of young shoots of the Mvule tree and blossoming of coffee bushes. In Tanzania, common plant indicators included flowering of venonia, pears, Albizia spp. and plums. Shedding of leaves of black nightshade also indicate the onset of rain.

We observe that farmers and herders were using these local indicators to make important agricultural production decisions including the timing of land preparation, dry planting, and purchase of seeds, type of crops to grow, agronomic practices to use, and labor allocation. In Borana, IK forecasts are used to plan livestock mobility and sharing of livestock amongst relatives to minimize losses during drought conditions. In Ethiopia and Tanzania, farmers considered IK climate forecasting a reliable source of climate information. They extend IK for forecasting of extreme events e.g. droughts and timing of the onset of rains. The paper demonstrates that farmers' trust and willingness to apply scientific forecasts would likely increase when IK forecasting are integrated with modern scientific methods. Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and a framework for integrating IK and scientific forecasting from the national meteorological agencies can improve the accuracy of climate forecasts for farmers in East Africa.

## P-2238-09

# Linguistic Identity and Indigenous Knowledge

L. Zamorshchikova (1)

(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Institut of modern languages and regional studies, Yakutsk, France

The North as a cultural-historical form of civilization is composed of socio-cultural communities of individuals with well known and consistent traits and characteristics, such as language, culture, environment, economics and spirituality. Geographical and cultural conditions of the North influence the formation of similar elements of the mental and linguistic identity of the peoples of the North. The common feature defining all northern communities is the deeply ecological aspects of their culture and recognition of a special relation with nature.

The research is aimed at study of northern world view through free association experiment's database realized in indigenous communities. The associative verbal nets reveal the peculiarities of spiritual and material culture, ethnic stereotypes of behavior, traditional beliefs and specificity of ethnic world view. The strings of verbal associations translate into assemblages of ideas, identities and behaviours which found their owner experientially located in self-contained worlds of people, events, values, norms and constraints (Rapport, Overing.).

The world view is a major component of culture and contains all the essential elements of traditional and cultural knowledge which an individual, belonging to a particular culture, needs in order to adapt to both natural and social components of his/her surrounding environment. This is the lens, so to say, through which people see the world. The structure of the world view is shaped in the early stages of ethnogenesis and remains largely immutable throughout the life of an ethnic group (S. Lurie). It defines ethnic identity and uniqueness of a particular culture and, hence, its carriers — the members of an ethnic group comprising a social community characterized by a specific cultural model which mediates the nature of their activity in the world.

The data of free association experiment (associative-verbal nets) in so far as they reflect unconscious layers of the mind, especially within the context of inter-cultural contact in a multicultural and multilingual environment, present interest not only for the investigation of a variety of scientific problems, but also of many issues of everyday life of indigenous peoples. Language, culture, and the relationship to the land are key elements in a seemingly fragile and yet tenacious Arctic indigenous identity. There is high correlation between language retention and traditional lifestyle of indigenous peoples of the North. They live in close contact with the land, the sea, and the animals. Many indigenous Arctic peoples continue to live partial or total subsistence lifestyles, which is reflected in their languages, most obviously in their vocabularies, but