# 2243 - Multi scale adaptation and responses in vulnerable coastal sectors under climate change risks

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2243-01

#### Coastal adaptation under high-end climate change

A. Sánchez-Arcilla (1) ; R. Nicholls (2) ; J. Hinkel (1)
(1) Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya (UPC), Marítime Engineering Lab. (LIM/UPC), Barcelona, Spain; (2) University of Southampton School of Engineering and the environment and tyndall centre for climate change research, Southampton, United Kingdom

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting level of global warming remain uncertain. The thermal inertia of sea water commits us to a continued increase of mean sea level at decadal to centennial scales. The increase of human pressure and economic development in coastal zones will aggravate the problem. Conventional hard coastal defences are costly and increase the risk of catastrophic consequences in case of failure and may exacerbate the loss of territory (e.g. wetlands) through coastal squeeze. Adaptation needs to be a long-term process covering a wide range of management strategies.

To face this challenge, advanced scientific information on the processes and impacts will be a key element in order to develop robust adaptation pathways. Such pathways must take into account plausible high-end sea level rise scenarios and changes in storminess as well as quantitative impact projections. This information will allow an objective definition of tipping points for adaptation, the effect of feedbacks between the various components of the coastal system and the efficiency of novel coastal interventions. The adaptation pathways will allow defining a sequential set of interventions that facilitate the maintenance of coastal zones under all climate scenarios. The role of novel solvents promoting natural accretion mechanisms and using eco-morphodynamics to reduce coastal mobility needs to be explored as this has the potential to increase our chances to maintain healthy coastal systems under a variety of climates. From here we shall derive information on when, where and how to act, especially if change is at the high end, and this will facilitate the sustainability of these areas.

Within the EU research project RISES-AM- we are projecting impacts at global, regional and local scales. The global modelling is based on the DIVA code, addressing the flooding and erosion impacts worldwide. The regional model is based on a variety of hydro-morphodynamic models which reflect the site specific expertise and available model calibration/validation. As illustration for the Mediterranean we are analysing the Catalan and Croatian coast, the former with a sequence of models specially adjusted for this coastal sector and the second one with a regional adaptation of DIVA. The level of resolution and processes at this regional scale is much higher than for the global analyses, including surges, wave action and long shore and cross shore sediment transport components together with the human pressures and infrastructures existing along the coast.

The local dimension can be illustrated by the Egeo Delta and other small-scale Mediterranean deltas where both the vertical dynamics of the coastal plain and horizontal dynamics of the coastal fringe are being studied. For this particular case the suitability of "green" interventions based on promoting the soft infrastructure is also being examined so as to assess its performance under present and future climate conditions. The resulting analysis will allow identifying and partially quantifying adaptation tipping points that will be presented in the paper. This will go associated to determining critical thresholds as a function of scale and related by way of illustration to the availability of space or sediment. The combination of climatic pressures, coastal responses and the expected socio economic evolution will be the building blocks for defining an adaptation pathway suited to the studied coastal areas, illustrated in the paper by the three scales

mentioned above.

### K-2243-02

#### Responding to Changes in Coastal Zones

N. Bednarsek (1) ; T. Klinger, (2)
(1) University of Washington, School of Marine Affairs, Seattle, United States of America; (2) University of Washington, School of marine and environmental affairs, Seattle, WA, 98105, United States of America

Changes in climate and associated stressors will impose critical changes in coastal ocean systems. We propose a session to address changes in the coastal ocean, using the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem as a model system. The CCLME is a productive upwelling zone along the west coast of North America. It supports economically and culturally important fisheries and provides other essential ecosystem services. A large and growing population lives in the adjacent coastal zone. Climate and associated stressors are projected to influence circulation, productivity, and biogeochemical processes, including acidification and hypoxia, in the CCLME, with consequent effects on social and economic systems. In this session we will include perspectives that range from changes in physical and biogeochemical processes to those of ecosystem services and socio-economic responses. We will close the session with a forward-looking perspective on collective action.

### K-2243-03

#### The Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR) Project: Research advancing climate change adaptation planning and implementation in Metro Vancouver, Canada

L. Mortsch (1) ; G. Oulahen (2) ; K. Tang (2) ; Y. Klein (3) ; K. Damude (1) ; E. Joakim (1) ; D. Harford (4)

(1) University of Waterloo, Geography, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; (2) Western University, London, Ontario, Canada; (3) ACT, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; (4) Simon Fraser University, Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Public Policy School, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Many low-lying coastal cities, already coping with population growing, urbanization and economic, social, environmental and health challenges, are becoming increasingly exposed to climate change impacts related to rising sea levels and changing flooding risks. In order to respond to these challenges, proactive adaptation is becoming a fundamental and necessary response in a future that is likely to have increasingly frequent and more severe climate-related hazards. By understanding vulnerability and resilience, and their influence on adaptation planning and implementation, the capacity of these cities to address future climate change hazards and stressors can be improved. A Canadian-funded international research project - Coastal Cities at Risk: Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities (CCaR) - seeks to explore these issues in Bangkok, Vancouver, Lagos, and Manila. This presentation highlights results from Metropolitan Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. It explores the unique challenges and opportunities in a complex urban environment that influence the effectiveness of adaptation planning and policy development. A variety of thematic areas related to this issue were addressed, including physical, economic, social, institutional, and health while employing a broad range of scientific approaches from natural, social science and applied engineering. This presentation highlights the social science components and the advances made on the social and institutional themes. Examples presented explore: the production of vulnerability to flood hazards, identifying indicators of resilience, and mainstreaming climate information. Multiple methods such as literature synthesis, focus groups, interviews, surveys and content analysis were used in combination with social vulnerability and resilience indicator development and mapping. The component on production of vulnerability to flood hazards applied a conceptual framework - across scales
and across actors – to identify and situation factors that influence vulnerability, mapped vulnerability indicators and “ground truthed” results with key stakeholders. Out of this research emerged an interest in developing resilience metrics, particularly examining how social resilience been defined in the climate change and hazards fields and what indicators have been developed for the neighborhood scale. From this literature review, an extensive list of metrics has been developed. The “mainstreaming exercise used a policy scan to assess how municipal, sub-national and federal government policies facilitate or constrain the incorporation of climate change information into decision-making for adapting to flood hazards. In the project, there was a strong commitment to engage with the community to access local information and expertise in order to ground the research but more importantly to initiate a two-way dialogue as a means of enhancing awareness and knowledge transfer. This process has contributed to building local adaptation capacity as CCAr research results have been incorporated into municipal adaptation planning and implementation.

K-2243-04

Title not communicated

O. Barretau (1)

(1) IRSTEA, Umr geau, Montpellier, France

Abstract not communicated

O-2243-01

# A Psychological Perspective on Behavioural Adaptation Challenges to Climate Change in Coastal Cities of India

R. Mudaliar (1) ; P. Rishi (2)

(1) Aix-Marseille Université-CNRS, UMR ESPACE 7300, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal, INDIA, Human Resource Management, Bhopal,MP, India

Coastal India faces a perceived potential threat owing to the vast sea-side development and huge populations in the vicinity of the coast. Climate change in coastal areas is associated much with flooding, SLR, land inundation, storms, cyclones etc. India has been identified as one amongst 22 countries which are most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming related accelerated SLR (UNEP,1989).Therefore, there is a pressing need to address issues related to climate stress, adaptation, vulnerability and coping in coastal cities of India, especially from the psychological perspective. The established fact that anthropogenic factors account for one of the major contributors to climate change makes it necessary to probe into behavioral facets as in spite of the best possible efforts around the globe to combat climate change, it is felt that people are still not as seriously aware/ alarmed of the expected future risk as they should be. If environmental stressors persist chronically, they may lead to inner conflicts that can be psychologically disturbing for individuals and may even give rise to physiological, emotional, cognitive and behavioral changes.

In light of the above, the present behavioral study assessed the cognitive understanding of climate change, climate stress and actions and reactions of coastal people with a special focus on behavioral adaptation and subjective well being. The study was conducted on a sample of 454 adults, both males and females (Age 18 years and above) in two coastal megacities of India namely Mumbai and Chennai keeping in mind the coastal hazards and vulnerability issues associated with these cities (TERI,1996). Especially designed Climate change perception Inventory (CCPI) based on a four-point Likert type rating scale format was used to assess the respondents' Climate Change Awareness (CCA), Climate Stress and Emotional Concern (CSEC), Coping/Adaptation, Institutional Accountability (IA), and Coastal Subjective Well Being (CSWB). Results indicated a good level of CCA and subjective well being among coastal people. Respondents were found to be experiencing a moderate amount of climate stress and were unable to fully cope with it. They expected more efforts on the part of government and environmental institutions for adapting with climate change in coastal cities and suggested various adaptive strategies in this regard. Results were interpreted in line with article 6 of New Delhi Work Program of UNFCCC (2007) in which special effort to foster psychological/behavioral change

has been stressed through public awareness.

O-2243-02

# First results from the world biggest coral planting program (Baa atoll, Maldives)

F. Ducarme (1)

(1) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Ecologie et Gestion de la Biodiversité, Paris, France

This work presents the first results of the world's biggest coral planting program, located in Baa atoll UNESCO Biosphere reserve (Maldives), and led by SeaMarc / Marine Savers association, with scientific support from the MNHN.

Maldives is known as a very low island country, constituted of more than 1200 sandy islands not exceeding 2m high. This country shelters an extremely rich marine biodiversity along with a population of 400 000 inhabitants, but faces concerning threats from weather condition change, water acidification and sea level uprising. All these islands being constituted of coralline sand and protected from wave action thanks to coral reefs, the health of corals directly impacts the very existence of the islands, and severe erosion can already be observed in some urban islands with damaged reefs such as Malé.

The Marine Savers program has started planting coral frames in 2007 and standardized the methods and gears in 2010, on the basis of a crowd founding system financed by resort tourists. More than 3000 coral frames have been planted to date at different sites and depths, totaling more than 200 000 coral grafts, from more than 20 different species of scleractinian corals. The frame growth have been surveyed, photographed and managed on a biannual basis, and >150 representative frames of different ages have been weighted in order to give a proxy for total biomass.

This study aims at providing a synthesis of these growth results and rate, along with observations on natural colonization by sestile, benthic and pelagic species. Results proved that this method can produce a substantial amount of coral biomass in a rather short time span, and recreate habitat conditions suitable for most reef species. Most coral species proved to be extremely site-sensitive, and show important growth discrepancies depending on slight condition differences.

Such experiment could help understanding growth and survival of different species of corals coral under different conditions, and provide an important technical basis for further restauration or ecological compensation projects. As the frames developed by Seamarc are moveable, this system also aims at developing a way to help conserving young coral sprouts in deeper waters during bleaching events in order to achieve quicker and better ecological resilience, and in a longer run selecting the more resistant genes for climate change adaptation.

O-2243-03

# Surviving from “rob” (tidal flood) – how local knowledge helps coastal villagers in Demak, Central Java

AD. Ekaputri (1)

(1) Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Research Center for Population, Jakarta, Indonesia

Indonesia is an archipelago country with coastline spans more than 90,000 km, the fourth longest in the world. The coastal areas house around 60% of the total Indonesia population. However, in the past few decades these areas has been threatened by increasing sea level rise, including Demak, a city located in the northern coast of Central Java. In 2010, Bedulu, one village in Demak, suffered the most impact from “rob” or tidal flood with half of the village area sunked into sea, including villagers’ residences. This has caused a significant number of local people lost their homes and livelihoods. With no sufficient guidelines on how to survive from “rob”, villagers forced themselves to adapt based on their own knowledge. A five-year research conducted by LIPI in Demak showed that villagers’ behavior to adapt depends on the level of sea rise. The extreme case where houses are permanently drowned, villagers relocate to neighbouring villages. For other cases, villagers elevate their houses’ floors, reschedule time to cook, prepare
house cleaning utensils, and protect their children's health. In the context of livelihood, villagers arrange the time to seed the fishpond so it can be harvested before tide comes and destruct the production process. One local knowledge that proves to be useful is silofishery, integrating fishpond with planting mangroves. It has successfully decreased level of destruction in coastal areas as well as improving villager's wellbeing. These adaptations based on local knowledge should be taken into account by the government to improve the climate adaptation strategies and programs.

## 0-2243-04

# Infrastructure and societal challenges in addressing climate impacts in the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil

### D. De Freitas (1); CDSJ. Wilson (2); FMDG. Luiz (3)

(1) Technological Institute of Aeronautics, Department of water and environmental sanitation, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) Technological Institute of Aeronautics, Engineering division of infrastructure, department of water and environmental sanitation, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (3) Federal University of São Paulo, Campus Baixada Santas, Odense institute, Santos, Brazil

Worldwide, coastal communities are challenged by the increase in frequency and magnitude of natural events associated with climate variability and change. During the last decade, several significant events such as storm surges, cyclones and sea level rise have caused substantial damage to coastal infrastructure and communities. For example, continuous erosion and frequent storm tide inundation threaten coastal settlements and infrastructure by making them more vulnerable to landslides and flooding, respectively. These issues demand special attention in developing countries, where populous irregular settlements (such as slums) are common in coastal areas, experiencing greater vulnerability to natural disasters and other environmental risks. Nevertheless, climate change and its related impacts are neither well understood nor taken into consideration at local and regional planning scales in developing countries. Brazil is an example of such problem. At the local scale, there are pressures related to settlement for construction and operational assets associated with port expansion and the development of oil and gas industry mega-infrastructure. At the state and national scales, there are political and economic pressures imposed by development associated with the Pre-Salt oil exploration offshore which does not consider local management needs and priorities on land use planning. In this study, we present the major findings of the RedeLitoral, a multidisciplinary project with the objective of evaluating the knowledge climate change impacts effects on society, built infrastructure and land use planning in a region experiencing fast development in the south-east of Brazil. Our results indicate that human settlement, mainly driven by tourism and mega-infrastructure developments, has induced urban sprawl towards the most vulnerable areas, making these populations and associated infrastructure more susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Fragmented and sectored licensing processes does not consider the cumulative and synergistic environmental effects resulting in inadequate public policies. Local coastal management initiatives show intense rearrangement, but changes are mostly focused in the ecological-economic zoning and creation of marine protected areas, and climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are not a priority in the planning agenda.

## 2243-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2243-01

# Climate Change, Biodiversity and Human Well-Being in the Coastal Communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria

### AA. Akinwale (1)

(1) University of Lagos, Industrial Relations and Personnel Management, Akoka, Lagos State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

With astronomical increase in the rate of urbanisation and deficits in environmental protection in Nigeria, coastal

communities are at risk of the consequences of climate change, especially flooding, biodiversity loss, and food scarcity. This situation constitutes dangers to human well-being in the coastal communities in Nigeria. Therefore, this study examines human well-being in the context of climate change and biodiversity in coastal communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria, focusing on how the dangers of climate change can be mitigated with minimal discomfort to people and organisms in the coastal environment. The study is based on analysis of primary and secondary data in conjunction with the theoretical framework of political economy and underdevelopment. While extant literature and documents on climate change, biodiversity and urbanism in Lagos state of Nigeria constitute the secondary data, primary data were obtained via 20 Key Informant Interviews (KII's) and 8 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted in four Local Government Areas (LGAs), Appa, Aka, Beju-Lekki, and Lagos Island, respectively. The KII's and FGDs involved youth and community leaders in several coastal communities in the selected LGAs. The discussions essentially dwell on the following issues: (1) the manifestation of climate change in coastal environment in Lagos state of Nigeria; (2) official efforts to mitigate the dangers of climate change in Lagos state; (3) consequences of land reclamation on biodiversity in the coastal environment; (4) public reactions to government's effort to reclamation of lands and construction of Eko Atlantic City how human well-being can be improved for achieving the goal of sustainable development in the coastal environment. The findings reveal that climate change constitutes a threat to biodiversity and general socioeconomic development through extreme temperature, coastal erosion, frequent flooding, loss of land, drought, and increased salinity of water, which have become a recurrent environmental problem in Nigeria. To prevent further encroachment by the sea, the Lagoans are forced to reclamation of lands and construction of a city project known as Eko Atlantic City through public-private partnership. The project is a 4-square mile extension of Lagos towards the edge of the Atlantic Ocean with a view to mitigate the problem of flooding through a 35-foot tall seawall protective barriers on the one hand, and the problem of growth by using the extension as a site for new apartments, on the other hand. Three out of every five participants describe the Eko Atlantic City project positively in terms of its strategic location and attractions. However, all the participants in the KII and FGDs expressed concerns over the perceived failure by the government to take the well-being of the poor into consideration before and after the reclamation of lands for the construction of the Eko Atlantic City. There is consensus among the participants that only the wealthy persons and big industries have the right to reclamation from the Atlantic Ocean. Two-third of the participants observes that land reclamation has created ecological imbalance and displacement of some people and organisms in the affected areas in Lagos state. The findings suggest that the Eko Atlantic City project is a form of internal colonialism which may be largely detrimental to human well-being in the coastal environment in Lagos state. It is noted that with adequate support from national and international environmental protection agencies the current situation in the coastal environment in Lagos state can be corrected through appropriate policies and enforcement of standard practice. Also, there is need for more attention on urban resilience systems to protect coastal communities in Lagos state from natural and manmade disasters.

### P-2243-02

# Determinants of Farm-Level Adaptation Practices to Climate Extremes: A Case Study from Odisha, India

### CS. Bahinapati (1); L. Venkatachalam, (2)

(1) Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Economica, Ahmedabad, India; (2) Madras Institute of Development Studies, Economics, Chennai, India

A large number of rural households in the state of Odisha, India are dependent on agriculture for their basic livelihoods, which is affected by the frequent occurrence of climate externalities like cyclones and floods. In response, the farm households do also undertake adaptation measures to minimise the economic impact of these externalities. It is, imperative to analyse the current adaptation strategies of the farm households so that future adaptation policies aimed at scaling up adaptation strategies can be designed effectively. Using a survey
data of 285 farm households in the cyclone and/or flood prone districts of Odisha, the present study identifies the farm-level adaptation measures as well the determinants of these measures: agricultural extension, access to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme, received crop loss compensation and informal credit. It is concluded that the government adaptation policies and investment options should take into account these determinants in order to enhance the adaptive capacity of the rural farmers in the cyclone and flood prone regions of the state.

P-2243-03

Integrating science into legal frameworks for sea-level rise planning - an Australian case study

J. Bell (1)

(1) University of Queensland, TC Beirne School of Law, Brisbane, Australia

One of the anticipated impacts of climate change is sea-level rise, with Australian communities likely to be particularly affected. It is estimated that 85% of Australians live within 50 kilometres of the coast (Department of Climate Change, 2009), making sea-level rise planning a major concern for Australian governments.

Despite this high level of risk, the inherent uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of sea-level rise impacts makes it extremely difficult to garner political and public support for sea-level rise planning. Sea-level rise has been a politically divisive issue in Australia, with policies introduced by governments, and then removed following an election and shift in power to a more conservative administration. Sea-level rise has also caused considerable conflicts between state and local governments.

However, despite this challenging political environment, there are some good examples of sea-level rise science being integrated into law in Australia. These examples include large-scale mapping of hazard areas linked to a planning code, planned retreat policies teamed with conditional development approvals, and innovative approaches to seawall planning.

This presentation will explore some of the novel approaches to integrating science into legal frameworks for sea-level rise planning, and demonstrate how legal barriers have been overcome.

References:

Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coasts: A first pass national assessment (2009) <http://www.climatechange.gov.au/-/media/ publications/coastline/cc-risks-full-report.pdf>.

P-2243-04

Planning for coastal relocation: analysis of relocation drivers in Hurricane Sandy affected communities

A. Bukvic (1); A. Smith (2); A. Zhang (3)

(1) Virginia Tech, Urban Affairs and Planning, Blacksburg, United States of America; (2) Virginia Tech, Psychology, Blacksburg, United States of America; (3) Virginia Tech, Statistics, Blacksburg, United States of America

The future viability of some coastal communities has been severely challenged by the recent major disasters, as well as other episodic and chronic coastal hazards. These events also instigated a dialogue on their long-term resilience, adaptation options, and the possibility of permanent relocation from high risk areas. Little is known how exposure to disaster, in combination with other contemporary coastal challenges, affects willingness to consider relocation on a household level in highly-developed urban settlements. The main objective of this paper is to provide a bottom-up perspective on this dilemma via identification of demographic determinants and other disaster-related concerns that may influence support for relocation among coastal residents. More specifically, this study takes an interdisciplinary approach to examine the effects of pre-disaster socio-economic household characteristics, level of preparedness, disaster exposure, experience with recovery, concerns with

other coastal stressors, relocation assistance support needs, community embeddedness, and resource loss on relocation decision-making. The findings hereby reveal that the willingness to consider relocation is primarily influenced by the age of respondents, disaster exposure, level of experienced stress related to recovery, personal financial recovery concerns, future cost of living in high-risk area, concerns with increase in crime and future flooding, and disaster-induced resource loss. Lastly, the findings reveal what age by itself, buffering, protective effect on stress and relocation consideration, such that older age predicts less stress and reduced interest in relocation, however, conditional on the level of experienced resource loss. Specifically, as resource loss increased, being older no longer protected respondents from disaster-related stress or consideration of relocation. Considering that relocation process is likely to occur in incremental and successive stages rather than all at once, these observations can provide a vital guidance as of which constituents may and under what circumstances decide to relocate sooner or later. This bottom-up perspective on contemporary coastal concerns and stressors that could drive decision to relocate can help inform the development of relocation policy that will more accurately reflect local circumstances and preferences and therefore receive more support for implementation.

P-2243-05

Paleoenvironmental changes of Heuksan Mud Belt (HMB) in the southeastern Yellow Sea, Korea

HG. Cho (1); KY. Kwak (1); C. Hunsoo (2); SJ. Lee (3)

(1) Gyeongsang National University, Geology, Jinju, Republic of Korea; (2) Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Petroleum and marine research division, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; Environmental Policy Institute, Environmental policy research group, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes of the Heuksan Mud Belt (HMB), a development stretching south to north along the southwest coast of the Korean Peninsula, are interpreted as having mostly controlled by rises in sea level after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The present study indicates paleoenvironmental changes in the HMB through clay mineral changes in samples obtained from the Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) borehole, HMB-103(core depth: 38.5 m), of 2012. Preferred-oriented specimens of 174 samples in 20 cm intervals were prepared and semi-quantitative analyses for 4 important clay mineral samples were then conducted using X-ray diffraction according to the Biscaye's method (1965). Clay mineral contents within the clay portion of core deposits were, in descending order: 58.5-70.6% (avg. 64.5%) illite; 8.7-21.7% (avg. 16.0%) chlorite; 10.1-17.3% (avg. 13.2%) kaolinite; and 1.9-16.4% (avg. 6.4%) smectite. The deposits were classified into the following three units, according to the 4 clay mineral content: top-13.5 m (Unit I); 13.5-21.0 m (Unit II); 21.0-38.5 m (Unit III). Chlorite and smectite contents were lower in Unit I than in Unit II, while chlorite content decreased and smectite content increased from bottom to top in Unit III. The kaolinite content was similar in Unit II and Unit III, and showed a decreasing pattern with decreasing depth in Unit III. The content of illite was higher in Unit III than in Unit II, but had the lowest content in Unit III, where it showed a pattern of increase with decreasing depth. In general, illite and smectite had a negative correlation, and illite content was higher in the upper part of the drill core than in the bottom part. The smectite content showed the opposite tendency. The classification of units according to the clay mineral content was that of sedimentary stratigraphic unit classification in geophysics exploration data. As a result of carbon age dating, the top part was found to be 2,700 cal yr BP, and the bottom part 50,000 cal yr BP, showing a range of periods dating from before LGM to the current interglacial period. Before LGM, the sea level was low, and sediments with a high smectite and a low illite content flowed in from the south of the research region where there was a high sea level in highly developed sediments, as the sea level rose and the coastline moved to inland, sediments with lower smectite and higher illite were then supplied from Korean rivers. It is also supported by the form of uppermost Unit I progressing from the east to west. The deposit rate of the core deposits before LGM, which occurred 18 yr ago was 2.07 m/kyr, for the period 18-11 yr it was 4.9 m/kyr, and following the last glacial 11 yr ago it was 3.35m/kyr. Such changes represent deposit rate changes according to the rise in sea level. The
clay mineral composition change in borehole HMB-103 is considered to be caused by the movement of fine-grained sediments and the associated changes in the circulation pattern of surface currents with the deepening of the water depth due to climate change and a rise in sea level following LGM.

P-2243-06

## Failure of Resilience & Adaptation in Agricultural Practice and Alteration of Socio-Ecological Structure Due to Ocean Acidification in 3 States of India

B. Ghosh (1)

(1) Asian Marine Conservation Association, Coastal Agriculture, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

‘Climate change’ is the major point of discussion of any political & decision- making agenda of any nation in general, and intergovernmental meetings and summits in particular. World community now understand that because of world’s development sustainability depends upon its all the ‘key-factors’ that significantly play into various thrust areas like growth in agriculture, education and industry, and their respective drivers.

The problem of changing climate that reflected into adversities primarily into agriculture, education and industry has already been satisfactorily be identified by major researchers from academia, but not having the direct solution available as of now, the scientists makers have therefore to depend on some approach – more of theoretical, than ‘straightforward practical’. In this premises, the concepts like ‘resilience’, ‘vulnerability’ and ‘adaptation’ have come into play.

This paper shows that how resilience and adaptation fails in agricultural practices in and nearby coastal areas of 3 States (West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and DIL-U.T.) of India, due to lowering of pH (Ocean Acidification) in nearby estuarine and coastal water increasing the ‘vulnerability’ in the socio-ecological structure that also have altered the pattern of local economic activities like ‘tourism’ or ‘fish drying industries’.

P-2243-07

## Local government responses to sea level rise in Metro Vancouver

D. Harford (1)

(1) Simon Fraser University, Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Public Policy School, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Attention to climate change and sea level rise has intensified in recent years in Metro Vancouver. The region has been identified as one of the top cities in the world with assets at risk from rising seas, and vulnerabilities in the region include municipal property and infrastructure, and agricultural lands, as well as transportation infrastructure that supports the region’s position as a gateway for global trade including railways, roads, port facilities and the international airport. Despite dense settlement and more than a century of industrialization, the region continues to sustain rich aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, but climate change and approaches to adaptation also threaten environmental values. Experts have identified the need for regional collaborative governance to address climate change impacts, across the xx municipalities in the region, and four levels of government (local, provincial, federal and First Nations). There is a clear need for alignment of our strategies among national, provincial, federal and local governments, without this, efforts undertaken in municipal silos could increase the risks.

In November 2012, nine local governments and organizations from Metro Vancouver, BC's Lower Mainland already leading in climate change adaptation work took part in a workshop on regional approaches organized by West Coast Environmental Law and ACT. Sea level rise was identified by participants as the most critical issue requiring collaboration, and WCEL/ACT moved to facilitate the formation of the Sea Level Rise Collaborative (SLRC), designed to add capacity to these entities given a common lack of resources and the challenges of data gaps. Seven local governments are now working together to share scientific resources, risk assessment methodologies and implementation approaches. Additional priorities include

understanding legal risks and seeding broader regional collaboration, across other levels of government and sectors. A provincial representative has recently joined the collaborative, and the SLRC has a pilot project underway demonstrating green approaches to coastal resilience.

Actions to date include a design charrette to develop approaches to the new regional flood construction levels of 5 metres – based on the provincial estimate of 1 metre of SLR by 2100 – exploring ways that accommodate sea level rise and increase adaptive capacity over time. These approaches will be more cost-effective than shoreline armouring, will enhance community livability and protect coastal habitat. This and ongoing activities will help catalyze policy changes, new codes and standards, development of understanding of regional collaborative approaches as a key response to climate change impacts, and engagement of the local citizenry and professionals practicing in industry sectors related to this area.

P-2243-08

## Eco-technological management of atoll island against sea level rise

H. Kayanne (1)

(1) University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Tokyo, Japan

Atoll island countries comprise low, flat islands consisting of calcareous sand and gravel formed from coral and foraminifera. The islands are maintained both by the physical processes of sand transportation and sedimentation and by the ecological processes of biological production. In the past, the inhabitants maintained their islands wisely in accordance with geo-ecological processes, such as the conservation of coral reef ecosystems, sandy beaches, and coastal vegetation, and cultivated taro using fresh water lenses formed in the island sediments. At present, however, the population concentration on the capital islands has led to inappropriate land use, degradation of coral reef ecosystems, destruction of geo-ecological processes through the construction of landfill sites and sea walls, and reduction in and deterioration of water resources due to the effects of over use and sewage. All these «local» problems have disrupted sand production-transportation-se sedimentation process.

The submergence and inundation of atoll islands are regarded as a result of sea levels rise. However, the present problems not as simple as submergence caused by rising sea levels; indeed, they are induced mainly by local problems. These problems have reduced the resilience of the atoll islands as historically maintained by their inhabitants.

«Global» issues also degrade coral reefs. Bleaching induced by global warming and ocean acidification resulting from increased CO2 also degrades coral reef ecosystems and reduces sand production. The modulation of El Nino, drought, and intensified typhoons induced by global warming threaten water resources in these islands. The problems in atoll countries involve inter-related local and global problems. Plans to adapt to global changes based on a simple scheme may instead reduce the resilience of these islands. To maintain the sustainability of islands against future global change, it is essential to regenerate geo-ecological processes by removing local problems so as to construct highly resilient islands.

To regenerate coral and foraminifera production, ecosystem rehabilitation is necessary. This should be achieved by improvement of coastal environment by sewage treatment and waste management. Rehabilitation would be supported by foraminifera and coral culture and transplantation of their habitat generation, however improvement of coastal environment is a prerequisite. Sand transportation and sedimentation processes should be reopened. An open-cut the causeway will enhance sand delivery from the ocean to the lagoon, nourishing the lagoon coast. Removal of the jetties or their reconstruction with piles and backfilling the dredges would re-open the transportation passage along the coast. Vertical seawall will enhance erosion rather than sedimentation at its foot. Therefore, beach nourishment is proposed as a short-term coastal protection and rehabilitation plan that enhances but does not conflict with the long-term sandy beach rehabilitation.

Yet, the local problems themselves originate from the globalization of the economy and society. In traditional
island societies, the inhabitants kept their islands robust, albeit poor economically, by means of local governance indigenous to each island. However, the globalized economy and society, together with the introduced Western political system, have led to the centralization of the population on the main islands and to inappropriate land use.

Without considering the background factors, island management programs will never be acceptable for all societies in terms of sustainability unless they consider the appropriate geo-ecological processes. Moreover, geo-ecological processes differ with geological, climatological, and biogeographical variation; island governance differs according to historical and cultural background; and the expression of local problems depends on the local economic and societal background. Therefore, resilience and governance must be constructed in accordance with this geographical variation.

P-2243-09

## Unpacking the Co-production of Knowledge in Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Local Knowledge in a Coastal City - Tainan, Taiwan

HC. Lee (1) ; R. Chen (2)

(1) National Central University, Chung Li, Taiwan; (2) Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan

As most of climate change research initiatives are more focused on natural sciences, it is almost impossible to understand the earth system without addressing humans as influencing the planet and as an essential driving force in shaping the future of Planet Earth. Thus, a major new step has taken to the development of science - from disciplinary to interdisciplinary, from one sector to cross-sectoral, and from natural sciences to social sciences and the humanities.

Based on the research results from a 3-year (2013-15) core research program - Taiwan Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT), this paper takes an interdisciplinary approach by examining the role of local knowledge to plan, manage and communicate local adaptation strategies in Tainan, Taiwan. Selected by Lonely Planet and Michelin as a must-see three-star tourist destination, Tainan, at the time, has been at risks of rain storms and mud slides at mountain regions, urban flooding and coastal sea-level rise. Policy responses like building dikes or not, opening or closing water gates, water distribution among industrial, agricultural and residential sectors are frequently made by relevant government authorities with inputs from community groups.

To ensure government, business, society and academia have the foresight, knowledge and tools to adaptation to climate change, this paper further conducts in-depth interviews with stakeholders from mountain, rural, urban and coastal regions for cross-checking its research findings. Tainan experience so far points to the importance of early engagement, trust-building, involvement of all stakeholders and assessment of knowledge needs and knowledge exchange. Hopefully in the future, it may become a robust example for co-design, co-production and co-delivery of knowledge also consistent with and called for by Future Earth research initiative.

P-2243-10

## Why urban poor exposed to climate change in coastal Bangladesh are more concerned about ecosystem disseresses than services?

MM. Saraoar (1) ; N. Fatema, (2)

(1) Khulna University, Urban and rural planning discipline, Khulna, Bangladesh; (2) Khulna University, Development studies discipline, Khulna, Bangladesh

Urban poor get numerous benefits from ecosystem services. Roles of urban ecosystem services in the well-being of urban poor are extensively discussed, yet little is known about the vulnerability of urban poor to ecosystem disseresses. Particularly in the context of climate change some of the ecosystem disseresses might seriously affect the urban poor's wellbeing by impacting their

livelihood, security and comfort. Therefore, this research is aimed to answer the question-why some urban poor are more concerned about getting protection from ecosystem disseresses than getting benefits from ecosystem services? Accordingly three objectives are framed. First, to identify range of urban ecosystem services and disseresses which the urban poor take into account to ensure their wellbeing. Second, to examine whether urban poor really care more about protecting them from ecosystem disseresses than taking care of their own to identify the factors that determine urban poor's differential preference for ecosystem services/disseresses.

This study was conducted taking coastal Khulna- a metropolis exposed to climatic disasters, as a case. Empirical part of this study was done in a large low-income settlement, named Rupsha slum. Family heads of a total 235 households selected randomly were interviewed through administering a semi structured questionnaire. From a list of 25 ecosystem services and disseresses, respondents were first asked to rate in a 5-point Likert scale (very low = 1 to very high = 5) if they get benefit from/affected by a particular ecosystem service/disseress. Second, they were asked to rate by using the same scale (a) the importance of those services and (b) their concern against those disseresses. By employing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on their responses to first question, the 25 categories were bought down to four practical utilities/negative utilities. These four categories are related to (a) livelihood, (b) comfort, (c) security and (d) recreation. For the second question, each person's responses (denoting both importance & concern) were first summed up and later dichotomized taking median as the cut-off point. With this, and the respondents were reclassified into two distinct groups: (a) low benefit stakeholders who seek protection from ecosystem services, (b) low concerned than high concerned about ecosystem disseresses. Taking each of these two groups as dependent variable, two Ordered Probit models were developed to identify the factors that influence the respondent's positive preference (expressed earlier as "importance") and negative preference (expressed earlier as "concern") towards ecosystem services and disseresses respectively. As independent variables, in addition to variables that are identified in Personal Motivation Theory (PMT) (such as intrinsic benefits, extrinsic benefits, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability), various socio-economic, ecological, demographic, behavioural, spatial and governance related aspects were employed in the Probit models.

Initial result shows that the urban poor take into account both green and blue ecosystem services for their wellbeing with a varying combination though. Variability is rather less as regards gaining advantage from various green ecosystem services such as green parks, streetscapes, urban forests, playgrounds. However, high variability is observed in regards to their concern over ecosystem disseresses, particularly derived from blue ecosystem services such as rivers, canals, urban swamps, natural drainage. Ecosystem disseresses, which they care most are waterlogging, storm water overflows, surface run off and smell from decomposed waste. Probit models' results show that importance of ecosystem services to respondent's wellbeing are significantly determined by age, occupation, education, distance from house, access fees etc. On the contrary respondent's concern over ecosystem disseresses are significantly determined by age, gender, occupation, season of a year, tenure of housing, length of stay, etc. However, other factors have limited influence. The findings would help designing appropriate interventions for (a) enhancing urban poor's access to ecosystem services, and (b) protecting urban poor from the vulnerability of ecosystem disseresses. Therefore, this finding would give synergies to ongoing efforts of building resilient urban community in the context of changing climate.

P-2243-11

## Social Memory and Social Change in a Portuguese Natura 2000 Coastal Area: Understanding Communities' Adaptation to climate change

E. Seixas (1) ; P. Castro (2) ; M. Carla (1)

(1) CIS-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal; (2) ISCTE-IUL, social psychology, Lisbon, Portugal

This presentation analyzes how social memory is linked to social change and climate change (CC) adaption
in a Portuguese Natura 2000 coastal area of fishing
importance, by looking at residents' narratives, paying
particular attention to those of fishermen. Narratives are
fundamental for linking the past, the present and the
future, as well as for constructing meanings and identities.
The stories that communities in Natura areas relevant for
CC adaptation tell about the past are thus important for
legitimizing specific social representations of the changes
required for CC adaptation (e.g., representations of the
new bio-conservation laws and regulations) while de-
legitimizing other, alternative, representations, and it is
important to understand them and their role.

The study draws on (n=24) in depth qualitative interviews and walking interviews with residents of a Portuguese Natura 2000 Southern coastal area (n=16 interviews with fishermen). The guiding research questions are: How do residents' narratives of the past, the current social change and contribute to coastal CC adaptation or make it difficult? How do resident's narratives about the past legitimizing specific social representations of bio-conservation laws and of coastal trades and practices, in particular those linked to fishing? What can the particular ways in which residents' narratives link the past the present and the future tell us about identity and representational processes, and about how these are affected by power differentials?

The preliminary analysis of the interviews suggests that (1) perceptions of a decrease in the main resources (fish and shellfish), (2) technological innovation and (3) the introduction of new legislation restricting fishing activities in the Natural Park have created a series of tensions in identity and representational processes, with consequences for power relations and social cohesion. These tensions evidence several social and cultural conflicts by considering with the past, differentiated according to the type of social change evoked: (1) change induced by a decrease in the 'resource' (2) change induced by technological innovation and (3) change induced by the introduction of new legislation and other social/economic policies.

In the interviews with the fishermen, the claims that the
resource has decreased are linked to claims that in the
past theirs was a much simpler trade, since fish available to
catch the next day. Conversely, in the present, fishermen
claim to have to rely much more on their knowledge and
experience, and there is an intensification of individual
competition within the trade. They link the decrease in
the resource to several factors like pollution, technological
activities and infrastructure not well developed in fishing.
Technological innovations is described in a conflicting way:
on the one hand, as advantageous since it contributes to
facilitating the practices of fishing. As such, it is linked
to a claim that in the past the trades and practices of
fishing were more dangerous. On the other hand, it is
associated with a decrease in the resource. When talking
about the introduction of new Natura 2000 legislation
restricting fishing in the site, as well other social and
economic policies setting the conditions of the fisherman
trade, interviewees often claim that before the laws were
introduced it was much simpler to be a fisherman. On the
whole, this narrative proposes then that (techno)science
reduced the risks of the profession, but now laws are too
restrictive of the trade. Also present in the narratives are
claims that the use of technological solutions by other
social actors with competing practices (such as specific
kinds of fishing nets used by large fishing companies;
diving equipment used for capture in breeding niches
are contributing to the depletion of certain species and
that laws in these cases are necessary for balancing
the ecosystem. On the other hand, one finds also a
representation of continuity with the past, linked to the
idea of an ancient attraction/'addiction' to the sea and
stressing the agency of the fishermen in their 'career' and
pursuing a highly demanding occupation. This research
shows the importance of analyzing the conservation of
biodiversity and coastal adaptation by considering the
narratives of the affected communities and the way that
social memory is linked to social change adaptation. It
highlights the multifaceted, dynamic and flexible nature of
social memory and the way it is regulated by social
psychological processes.

P-2243-12

Coping with climate change impacts: The
case of coastal fishing communities in
Paukathali region, Bangladesh

AR. Sunny (1); MM. Islam (2)

(1) Syhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Science, Syhet, Bangladesh; (2) Syhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Fisheries, Syhet, Bangladesh

Globally, Bangladesh is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries to the anticipated impacts of climate change. Following that situation, scientific community often uses Bangladesh as a test case of studying climate change impacts and respective adaptation strategies in different professional groups. However, very few studies focused on the coastal fishing people, though they are one of the most vulnerable professional groups to climate change impacts. Based on a fieldwork in four fishing communities in Paukathali region of Bangladesh, this study identifies livelihoods strategies that fishers adopt to cope with the impacts of climate changes that impinge on them and possible ways to enhance their capacity to make climate resilient fishing communities in Bangladesh. To collect empirical data, household survey was conducted and a number of qualitative tools such as interviews, focus group discussions, and oral history were employed. Coastal fishers in the study areas suffer from a number of climate changes related events such as cyclones, tidal surges, and saline water intrusion. Combination with high frequency of natural disasters, weak economy and acute poverty make fishing people very vulnerable to any shocks. In response to multi-faceted vulnerabilities, fishers adopt a number of strategies in considering long-term sustainability of their livelihoods. Immediate aftermath of any disaster, fishers are found to survive depending on personal savings, relief from government and NGOs, taking loan from NGO and mahojan (money lender) or by doing extra labor to increase income and savings. Improvement of physical capital such as brick-built housing structure is a common strategy and among better off fishers. Fishers are also found to plant trees and maintain their property protection. In response to increased silizationation of ground water, fishers harvest rainwater. In case of long-term adaptation, fishers put utmost importance to secured future of next generation and want to educate their children so that they can be able to leave risky professions and vulnerable place. The government support is not enough to increase the adaptive capacity of the people due to insufficient structural, protection, poor management, or corruption. A number of suggestions offered from fishers' perception for effective tackling of climate change related vulnerabilities that includes construction of more cyclone centre having effective infrastructure and communication system, construction and repairing of embankment, mangrove afforestation to protect embankment, public private partnership for climate protection such for coastal afforestation, starting of rationing of food support, mobile baking equipment used for power generation, skills for alternative employment opportunities to reduce pressure from fishing, disaster management training, checking corruption by introducing risk allowance for law enforcing personnel and other governmental officials during disasters rehabilitation, recruitment of trained graduates having deep knowledge on coastal resource and disaster management, providing sufficient buoys in boat, helicopter rescue system from fishing place, wireless network or specialized software response system for early warning of disasters.

P-2243-13

Harvesting energy: People's place-based
perspective on mitigating climate change
with renewable energy technologies on the
German North Sea Coast

D. Süsser (1) ; M. Döring, (2)

(1) Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz zentrum
Geesthacht, Human Dimensions of Coastal Areas, Hamburg,
Germany; (2) Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg,
Hamburg, Germany

Discussions on mitigating climate change revolve around
the question of how to enable low-carbon energy
transition based on renewable energy technologies (RETs)
such as wind or solar energy. Communities and individuals
have increasingly been recognised in public and policy for
making an important contribution to sustainable energy
transition. This includes the implementation of RETs in
places to which people feel attached to (Devine-Wright,
2011). A discrepancy is still remaining between the general
openness to ecological ways of generating energy and the
local resistance against the implementation or extension
of RETs in the form of NIMBYism (Devine-Wright, 2013a). Considerable research has been undertaken to better understand resistance against RETs while so far it has not sufficiently been investigated of how place attachment positively or negatively contributes to individual and collective innovation processes (Rogers, 2003). The paper takes this gap in research as a starting point and presents a socially embedded perspective by drawing on recent research carried-out in the area of place attachment (Manzo and Devine-Wright, 2013) and locally embedded entrepreneurship (Audretsch, 2011; Feldmann, 2010). Our study is based on qualitative interviews undertaken with inhabitants of and a standardised household survey in the coastal municipality Ruèbenkòge (North Frisia; Germany) in 2014 and 2015. It represents a rural area in which grain production and harvesting fields were the main agricultural practices due to historically reclaimed fertile marshland. This situation, however, changed with advent of onshore wind energy at the end of the last century and solar energy and biogas at the beginning of this century. In due course, the coastal municipality of Ruèbenkòge developed from an average agricultural into a so-called model-region for the generation of renewable energy by harvesting wind with wind turbines and sun with solar installations. In brief, Ruèbenkòge represents a recent show-case example for examining the social processes underlying the implementation of RETs in coastal areas. In the course of our qualitative study, analytical emphasis was put on people's place attachment, their understanding of climate change and how the latter two relate to the adoption of renewable energy technologies on an individual and community level. Questions addressed are the following: How does individual and collective attachment to the place of Ruèbenkòge interact with the adoption and implementation of RETs? How do people understand and relate to the phenomenon of climate change? Has local entrepreneurship in Ruèbenkòge shaped the municipality and in what ways? What are the important characteristics of this local entrepreneurship? In sum, the paper firstly aims at unravelling people's place-attachment in times of a climate-oriented energy transition in Ruèbenkòge (Devine-Wright, 2013) by analysing the social meanings associated with RETs and, secondly studies socially embedded drivers of change and perceived social adjustments connected to the transition from harvesting fields to harvesting the energy.

Audretsch, D., Flack, O., Feldman, M., Heblich, St. (2011): Local Entrepreneurship in Context. Regional Studies 46 (3), 379-389.

Devine-Wright, P. (2011): Place Attachment and Public Acceptance of Renewable Energy. A Tidal Energy Case Study. Journal of Environmental Psychology 31, 336-343.

Devine-Wright, P. (2013a): Explaining 'NIMBY' Objections to a Power Line: The Role of Personal, Place Attachment and Project-related Factors. Environment and Behavior 45, 761-781.

Devine-Wright, P. (2013b): Think Global, Act Local? The Relevance of Place Attachments and Place Identities in a Climate Changed World. Global Environmental Change 23, 61-69.

Feldman, M.P. and Kogler, D.F. (2010): Stylized facts in the geography of innovation. In B.H. Hall and N. Rosenberg (eds) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, vol 1, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 381-410.

Manzo, L./Devine-Wright, P. (Eds.) (2013): Place Attachment: Advances in Theory, Methods and Applications. London: Routledge.

Rogers, E.M. (2003): Diffusion of Innovations. Fifth Edition. New York: Free Press.

P-2243-14

Climate variability and change in fisher
communities of Benin coastal zone: Vulne-
rability and adaptation strategies

F. Photo (1) ; D. Houessou (1) ; A. Aoudji (2) ; S. Weissenberger (3)

(1) Centre d'Actions du'Environnement et le
Développement Durable du Dr. Cotonou, Benin;
(2) L'Institut d'Abattage et de Fabrique des sciences
agronomiques (fsa), Abomey-Calavi, Benin;
(3) Université
du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Institut des sciences de

l'environnement (ise), Montréal, Canada

Climate variability and change are major challenges for communities in coastal regions. The coastal area of Benin in sub-Saharan Africa is also experiencing the negative effects of climate in terms of sea-level rise, rapid coastal erosion and significant variations in rainfall and temperature. Fishing remains the main livelihoods mean in these coastal areas. The main negative effects of climate variability and change. Fishing communities are Grand Popo and Ouidah in South-western Benin are the most affected by these effects and are more vulnerable. This study used an integrated approach that combines both biophysical and socio-economic factors determining vulnerability within a community or household. Indicators were used to develop an index of vulnerability to climate variability and change in order to compare and explain the levels of vulnerability of fishing communities. This research is part of a regional project funded by the Canadian International Development Research Center which is implemented in Benin, Senegal and Canada. The findings of the study showed, for fishing, that the municipality of Grand-Popo is more vulnerable to climate variability and change than Ouidah in terms of the level of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. A community with low adaptive capacity does not directly reflect a high vulnerability. It is the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity that determines vulnerability. However, fishing households experiencing high exposure, therefore experience more climate shocks, have a high probability of being the most vulnerable, this is the case for the municipality of Grand-Popo. Similarly, households with high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity have a greater vulnerability. On a practical view, the findings of this research showed the importance of supporting the communities in diversifying their livelihoods in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability and change.

P-2243-15

Coastal Mitigation and Adaptation in a
Small Island Developing State: Vanuatu a
Case Study

S.M. Von Schwerin (1)

(1) Experienced consultant, Specialising South Pacific SIDS; Eba and Eco-DRR, Dee Why, NSW, Australia

Considered one of the poorest and least developed of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the South Pacific, Vanuatu is limited in its ability to respond to risk associated with climate change. An archipelago comprising 83 islands located in the western region of the South Pacific, the archipelago comprises the climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile (CRAPC Vanuatu 2011) describes Vanuatu as being «hampered» at its highly vulnerable socio-economic and ecological standing». The key challenges that limits Vanuatu's ability to respond to climate variability and change include: political instability and weak institutions; unequal distribution of economic benefits gained from existing policies; disparity in income distribution and access to basic services; and, increased urban migration to urban centers with limited employment opportunities(CRAPC).

As a natural resource/environmental planning expert with over 30 years experience, living and working in Vanuatu, I present pragmatic solutions based upon my in depth knowledge and understanding of mitigation and adaptation climate change related issues facing the Ni Vanuatu Islanders. The case study addresses adaptation and mitigation measures, including a review of the before and after of the recent Category 5 cyclone that hit the island chain in March, 2015.

Appropriately for a number of the South Pacific Small Island Developing States this presentation focuses on a grassroots perspective oriented towards natural and science based solutions: ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) + ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR).

The innovative component of the oral presentation is not limited to purely scientific analysis of mitigation and adaptation options associated with climate change. It will also bring to the Conference the voices and concerns of local Ni Vanuatu and I Kiribati from Vanuatu regarding their current socio-economic vulnerabilities and concerns, economic drivers in conjunction with current, cultural
and historic understanding of climate change risk. A key component of the presentation will be to address local and regional responses, discussing pathways for integration across sectors and stakeholders.

The scientific and techological breakthroughs relevant to this paper include ,but are not limited to: computer modelling; development of renewable energy limiting coral reefs and reducing dependency on coal power stations; drill systems for geothermal energy; solar and wind power generation and storage; biological treatment of waste water; protection of freshwater lens and water resource; sustainable agricultural production; early warning systems; and the role of natural ecosystems in increasing coastal community resilience and hazard reduction from projected climate change events.

The trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks are discussed along with the primary barriers which include:

1. the dispersed nature of the archipeligo and mountainous terrain making administration, communication and operation costly and challenging

2. limited domestic market with little potential for economies of scale

3. increasingly competitive international markets for tourism and investment

4. a social and cultural system with limited understanding and experience with business concepts and practices

My presentation concludes with a local area case study that examines the integration of EbA and Eco-DRR as a tool for climate change adaptation promoting socio-economic and ecological resilience. The case study Lapita project, which has been running almost 15 years, provides innovative adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change from the bottom up perspective. These solutions may be readily adopted at the regional basis throughout Vanuatu and the South Pacific.

P-2243-16

Adapting to impacts of coral reef bleaching on ecosystem services in Asia-Pacific

T. Yeemin (1); S. W. (1); K. W. (1); S. K. (1); S. W. (1); S. M. (1)

(1) Ramkhamhaeng University, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand

Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans gain from functioning ecosystems. Coral reef ecosystems provide a lot of economic benefits, especially reef tourism, recreational fisheries, fisheries production, shoreline protection and natural products. However, coral reef ecosystem services are threatened by various anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Determining how ecosystem services are associated with biodiversity is required for investigating the consequences of biodiversity loss and for setting objectives and priorities for coral conservation and management. Studies on functional redundancy within coral communities, the number of taxonomically distinct species that show similar ecological functions, are very important for understanding the consequences of biodiversity loss. A case study in the Gulf of Thailand revealed that the low Acropora coverage at the study sites before the 2010 coral bleaching event was still a result of the previous severe coral bleaching in 1998. Densities of juvenile Acropora colonies before the 2010 coral bleaching event were also very low at the study sites, with no recruitment for several years. Several Acropora species that were previously observed in these areas are presently at risk for local extinction or may have already disappeared.

Quantifying coral reef ecosystem services in the Gulf of

Thailand and the Andaman Sea has been documented with emphasis on linking coral reef conditions with various types of ecosystem services. Given coral reef management and restoration plans in Thailand as an example, the coral reefs are categorized into four different groups depending on their threats and type of uses. The coral reef that is in a degraded status and is used for tourism is the priority area for coral reef restoration. The coral reef restoration plan concentrates on using passive restoration in strategies and understanding the role of coral reef management in promoting tourism, water pollution, sedimentation and fisheries. The active coral restoration by numerous asexual and sexual reproduction methods and techniques will be carefully considered prior to applying at appropriate reef sites for tourism, research, education and raising public awareness. The major concerns are simple and cheap restoration methods, community involvement, high tolerant species to bleaching and multi-species transplantation.

The coral reef management and restoration project in tourist hot spots in the Gulf of Thailand is a good case study for adapting to impacts of coral reef bleaching in Asia-Pacific. The project was initiated and funded by the network of provinces in the eastern Thailand. It aims to survey and establish an ecological and socio-economic database for managing the coral reefs and enhance their resilience to climate change. In addition, residual substrates for coral recruitment and ecotourism are provided at tourist hotspots with the participation of local communities in managing natural resources and environment, wherein public awareness and education are enhanced. The project shows effective collaboration between scientists, local communities and local government officials as decision-makers to integrate scientific data into policy and adaptation measures. The coral reef restoration sites can be used to support ecotourism and learning opportunities for students. Continuing efforts in capacity building, public awareness and education through disseminating printed materials and conducting training courses, workshops and seminars for stakeholders, youth, students and local government officials can enhance resilience in coastal communities. Strengthening the long-term monitoring, evaluation and reporting of the project can provide lessons for conservation of coral reefs in tourist hotspots influenced by climate change, especially coral bleaching events.

P-2243-17

Perspectives of planners on adaptation to
climate change in Indonesia

R. Yoseph-Paulus (1)

(1) Local government of Buton Regency, Regional Development Planning Agency (Bappeda), Baubau, Indonesia

This paper focuses on understanding what knowledge local planners at city, regional, and provincial levels have regarding climate change adaptation (CCA), and what informs their perceptions and understanding. Four main themes were investigated: their perception of climate change impacts on local communities; the level of CCA policy development; the extent of CCA mainstreaming in the development agendas of local governments; and the level of planning for CCA. The findings were derived from the perspectives and insights of 26 local planners, working for local governments from seven different Indonesian coastal cities. Several significant factors that need to be addressed in order to plan for and implement effective CCA and disaster management at local levels in Indonesia were identified. These included increased climate change awareness at local levels; the level of coordinated efforts of government and non-governmental organisations required to enable CCA; increased capacity development to enhance community resilience; access to financial incentives and programmes; and greater motivation to address climate change impacts to enable CCA development.
# 2244 - Climate Change Biodiversity and Human Well-Being: illustration from forests and agro-forests systems

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-2244-01

#### Exploring causes, risks, and consequences for ecosystem services of tipping points in Latin American forests - the role of biodiversity

J. Verboort (1); B. Kruijt (2); M. Perez Soba (3); H. Bavec (3); M. Van Eupen (1); C. Von Randow (4); T. Parr (5); K. Thonnicke (6); L. Jones (7); A. Boit (6); P. Balvanera (8); E. Leyequen Abarca (9); C. Huntingford (10); E. Blyth (11); I. Cisowska (11); L. Martorano (12); M. Toledo (13); B. Purse, (11); D. Masato (11); M. Pena Claros (14)

#### (1) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE. Alterra, WAGENINGEN, Netherlands; (2) Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) Wageningen University and Research Center, Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands; (4) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ccst, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (5) NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Monitoring & observation systems, Lancaster, United Kingdom; (6) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth system analysis, Potsdam, Germany; (7) NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment centre wales, Bannerman, United Kingdom; (8) Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de investigaciones en ecosistemas, Morelia, Mexico; (9) Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan, Merida, Mexico; (10) CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom; (11) NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; (12) s/nª, Agrometeorology, Belem, Brazil; (13) Instituto Boliviano de Investigacion Forestal, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia; (14) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Forest ecology and forest management group, WAGENINGEN, Netherlands

This paper presents some key findings from the EU-F7 funded projects AMAZALERT and ROBIN (Role of Biodiversity in the Climate Change Mitigation), both focusing on the effects of future climate change and land use change on ecosystem services provided by tropical forests in Latin America. New research has demonstrated that a complete dieback of the Amazon rainforest within the 21st century caused by climate change alone is unlikely; however a risk of forest dieback or other forms of irreversible ecosystem degradation on a lower spatial scale still exists. Because of the potentially severe consequences of such ecosystem degradation for many important services they provide, on various spatial and temporal scales, it is wise to be prepared for the unexpected. Joining the outcome of the two projects, we will present a map of risk of ecosystem degradation, the main factors involved and most useful monitoring and warning mechanisms. We will evaluate the role of biodiversity in degradation as well as its potential to provide critical indicators of ecosystem decline.

Our models show forecasted changes in the biophysical state and the ecosystem services that the environment provides, under future scenarios. These allow us to compare severity of climate change, the influence of socio-economic context, and the implementation of different levels of policy protection of biodiversity and ecosystem services in alternative futures. The models suggest that there may be difficult trade-offs to take into account among ecosystem services, carbon and biodiversity, under these contrasting scenarios.

In combination, climate change (warming, drying, extreme events) and land use change (deforestation, fragmentation) could have a profound effect on the ecosystem, changing carbon cycle, water cycle, nutrient cycle and biodiversity in an irreversible way: from a wet, high biomass high biodiversity system to a much drier low biomass low biodiversity system. As trees and precipitation are bound together in a positive feedback loop (trees cause precipitation, trees need precipitation in a hydrological cycle with evapotranspiration) and trees and fire in a negative feedback loop (intact rainforest is fireproof, dry forest and savannah are prone to fire causing more tree mortality), the system has multiple steady states

and a critical transition from one state to another would be hard to reverse. If and when such degradation would occur, an Early Warning System (EWS) that would detect the imminent change would help to minimise its impacts.

Although earlier work suggested that early warning signals might exist, such that the onset of large scale dieback could be detected and potentially halted before irreversible critical transitions could occur, current work suggests that there is uncertainty whether critical degradation would show any critical 'tipping point' behaviour, and whether such change would be associated with detectable early-warning signals, such as enhanced but slowing down variability in variables ahead of thresholds that are associated with the change. Because of this, monitoring for early detection and warning of change is essential, both on the ground and using satellite images, as monitoring is prerequisite for finding solutions and early adaption. Due to time lags between the system reaching adverse conditions and the response of the system to these adverse conditions (ecosystem degradation) we might be able to reverse the process before it becomes irreversible.

Since much of any critical change would occur through changes in the hydrological cycle, river levels, rainfall amount, soil moisture and temperature range appear among the most important candidates for monitoring, along with carbon exchange and energy budgets, but monitoring needs may differ according to the specific risk in a subregion. Local communities will be the first to notice subtle change in processes in their home territories, e.g. changes in ecosystem services provision, so combining high tech knowledge like satellite imagery with low tech on the ground observations should be the most promising way forward.

Actions against ecosystem degradation include reforestation, agroforestry production systems without burning, and agricultural no-tillage system.

### O-2244-02

#### Threat to Farmland Riparian Biodiversity in Tankwidi Agroecosystem in the Sudanian Savanna of Ghana - Implication to Managing Risks to Climate Change

EA. Boakye (1); NH. Dibi (1); VR. Barnes (2); S. Porembski (3); M. Thiel, (4); FN. Kouame, (1); D. Kone, (1)

(1) WASCAL Graduate Research Program in Climate Change and Biodiversity, Université Félix Houpouchou, Boigny, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Faculty of Renewable Natural Resources, Kwame nkrumah university of science & technology, Kumasi, Ghana; (3) Institute of Biosciences, University of rostock, Rostock, Germany; (4) Department for Geography and Geology, University of wuerzburg, Wuerzburg, Germany

Riparian forests (RF) are integrative part of the agroecosystem as they improve water quality and serve as habitat for fauna such as birds, insects and other organisms that are essential for crop pollination, seed dispersal and nutrient cycling. Despite their importance, RF are under the threat of deforestation from agricultural intensification in catchment areas. In order to ascertain the impact of the deforestation on the riparian area, this study used remote sensing techniques and field inventories to assess riparian forests diversity on communal farmland (FA) and protected forest reserve area (FR) along Tankwidi rivercourse in the Sudanian savanna of Ghana. The paper also discusses the findings of the research in the light of managing risks of climate change effects on farmland riparian biodiversity in the savanna zones of Ghana.

Post-classification analysis of Landsat images revealed a reduction in forest cover from 1985 (23%) to 2013 (7%) in the river catchment. This forest loss is likely to affect elements such as light and wind leading to changes in the microclimatic conditions of the forest remnants to exert a strong effect on biodiversity in the catchment.

Further, a ground survey of sixty randomly selected plots (500 square meters per plot) equally divided between
the results in synthetic form from the GIS map, periods favorable to bush fires and exposed areas are identified with determining the level of risk for each locality.

### O-2244-04

#### Pluviometric deficit and impact on wood-energy in climate changes context in the south of Senegal

SD. Badiane (1); C. A. (2); N. P. (1); K. A. (1); A. Ndiaye (1); CBCD. M. (1)

(1) Cheikh Anta Diop University, Geography, Dakar, Senegal,

(2) Gaston Berger University, Geography, Saint-Louis, Senegal

In Senegal, as in most sahelian countries, wood is still used as a primary energy source. The majority of rural households do not have access to new energies. Wood ensures for the case of Senegal, about 20% of national energy coverage. This figure shows the significant contribution of forest resources to meet the energy needs of the country. Much of the wood energy is provided by forest in south of Senegal.

Best climate conditions in the past, contributed to maintain forest because of the presence of water. The development of the forest is dependent on the occurrence of water in the forest basin of Casamance.

The importance of forest explains the production of wood energy (firewood). The abuse of forest resources causes a degradation of these and whose lower rainfall has exacerbated the drought of 70 years. Indeed, climate change has disrupted production systems including agro-forestry systems. Consequently with water deficit, the production of wood energy remains uncertain in long term to meet future needs.

This contribution tries to demonstrate the relationship between water deficit resulting from climate change and the availability of fuel wood in Casamance. It attempts to answer the question, how the reduction of rainfall over a long period affects energy production systems?

### O-2244-05

#### Rakhal (Yew) benefiting the knowledge of Biodiversity in Neeldhar (Pangi Valley) in the context of Climate Change for Sustainable Development

P. Sharma (1); PL. Uniyal, (1)

(1) UNIVERSITY OF DELHI, BOTANY, DELHI, India

This paper constitutes a first attempt representing the relationship between Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem services, with a specific emphasis on Rakhal (Yew), Neeldhar forest, Pangi valley, Chamba district, Himachal Pradesh. Firstly, we took Rakhal (Yew, Endangered plant) as biodiversity indicator that integrates changes in biodiversity due to some of its interesting novel populations in Neeldhar. Secondly, this indicator's novel populations are integrated into two simultaneous situations to capture the marginal impacts of changes in Biodiversity (i.e. Yew population decline) in Pangi Valley and on the value of ecosystem goods and services (Taxol) to Climate Change. Our results confirm these novel populations play a role of Biodiversity as a nature-based policy solution for Climate Change mitigation, involving local community in Neeldhar for human livelihoods and Sustainable Development. We conclude, nature-based mitigation policies are more cost-effective and better at coping with the ethic and inequality issues associated with distributional impacts of the policy actions.

### O-2244-06

#### Fostering forest system resilience through managing biodiversity : the case of Mediterranean forests

F. Lefevre (1); R. Alia, (2); L. Coll, (3); H. Daly-Hassen, (4); D. Pettenella, (5)

(1) INRA, Ecology of the Mediterranean Forests, URFM, Avignon,

France; (2) INIA, Cifor, Madrid, Spain; (3) CTFC, Solsona, Spain;

(4) IRESA, Tunis, Tunisia; (5) UNIPD, Padova, Italy

FA and FR along the river in a 50m buffer zone showed a reduction in the number of woody species (diameter ≥ 5cm) from FR (40) to FA (19). Anogeissus leiocarpus and Mitragyna inermis were the most abundant species in both FR and FA. Shannon-Wiener Index for woody species diversity reduced from FR (2.5±0.09) to FA (1.8±0.14). This diversity decline is an indication of the degrading quality of the farmland riparian habitat and could have negative effect on the ecosystem services expected from the entire riparian biodiversity for sustainable food production.

Within the FR in particular, there were more species (58%) in the lower diameter class (5-15cm) than the other higher diameter classes (15-50cm) suggesting successful regeneration. The reverse was observed in FA where the individuals in the lower diameter class were fewer (26%) than the higher diameter class (50-100cm) where the RF on farmland is not being reproductive and therefore, may not be able to sustain the ecological succession of the riparian woody vegetation for the perpetuity of their functions.

The observed reduction in woody species density from FR (17.7±1.1) to FA (7.3±0.53) is likely to increase the surface exposure of the riparian area in farmland. This will increase grassy fuel loads, decrease relative humidity and temperature and wind speed to heighten risks to savanna fires. Managing this risk on farmlands will not be possible unless a conscious effort is made to educate farmers on the roles of riparian forests, replant to enhance the diversity and density or area excluded from farming for the full recovery of riparian woody vegetation as climate change adaptation strategy.

### O-2244-03

#### Impact of climate change on vulnerability to bushfires in Côte d'Ivoire

V. Kpanoel (1)

(1) Université Allassane OUATTARA de Bouaké, Géographie, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

In Côte d'Ivoire, climate variability related to changes in rainfall patterns since the droughts of the 70s contributed to the impoverishment of rural areas and environmental degradation (Dje, 2009). Faced with these climatic disturbances, it is imperative to study the causes of these changes and evaluate their impact on the socio-economic human activities. One consequence of these changes is the proliferation of bushfires with its attendant degradation of ecosystems in place. Bushfires are hazards that disproportionately affect the tropics. By their heterogeneity in biomass, these areas face triggers fire. Indeed, from December to mid-March each year, the Harmattan blows over northern Côte d'Ivoire. The grasses become dry and the bush easily converts fuel in the presence of a spark. Increasingly, the practice of fires for land spares no region of the country given the growing techniques characterized by extensive farming has resulted in the destruction of large forest areas. Most fires are voluntary, criminal or originate carelessness and not in dry countries (Kouakou, 2013).

In Côte d'Ivoire, the lights are mostly man-caused mostly for hunting 'small games' and agricultural activities during peak fire season. The wind is an uncontrolled fire caused by the fires to burn fuels and other vegetation covering the crop land, pasture renewal fires for felder for cattle, the production of charcoal, imprudence like cigarettes lights, camping shepherds or deliberately caused fires by bandits and cattle rustlers (Decleire, 1999). The bushfires have for this purpose more disadvantages than advantages (SODEXAM, 2006). In Côte d'Ivoire, 120 deaths and more than 5,000 km2 of land and forests were destroyed by bush fires between 2004 and 2014, twice the size of Luxembourg (Orange CI, 2014). Before the armed conflict of 2002, bushfires destroyed 450,000 hectares of forest, 250,000 hectares of food and cash crops burned a loss of more than 89.5 million CFA francs (Euro 135 877) 350 property and loss of life (Bayo, 2014).

From the socio-economic data (the map of localities, population density and the general census of population and housing (RGPH) of the Côte d'Ivoire in 1998), climate (rainfall, temperature air and the average relative humidity) for 14 synoptic stations of the meteorological network of Côte d'Ivoire and vegetation data (NDVI) and map of the dominant vegetation of the country), lights vulnerability indices have been calculated from bush. According to
Mediterranean climate regions are considered as a hotspot for biodiversity, with many endemic species adapted to their hot dry summers and mild winter conditions. There, human societies have for centuries adapted their socio-economic systems to constrained climatic conditions and related risks (drought, fire, etc.) that now, under most climate change scenarios, are expected to expand rapidly at a larger scale. Thus, Mediterranean climate regions are a reservoir of resources and experience of potential interest for adaptation to climate change in other areas.

Mediterranean forests provide multiple goods and services for multiple users, including water cycle regulation and carbon sequestration at national and global level, fuelwood, forage and other products that contribute significantly to the income of the local human population that. However, climate change is expected to be particularly severe at latitudes and further south in those fragile areas : tipping points can be crossed with low fluctuation. Therefore, advancing on the understanding of the resilience mechanisms of Mediterranean forest social-ecological systems is a general concern but also a potential relevant source of information.

Mediterranean forests resilience results from the interplay between human decisions and actions and natural processes. Considering the context of change, facing increased hazards and uncertainties, a new paradigm emerges where adaptation and long term preservation of options are both needed, following a more flexible approach to managing forests. Biodiversity is not only a reservoir of living forms with different hierarchical levels (individuals, populations, communities) but also a set of processes that permanently puts the diversity in evolution. Nature-based solutions are necessary for the sustainable exploration, exploitation and dynamic conservation of diversity and processes.

Aiming to propose solutions to foster resilience of Mediterranean forest systems through managing biodiversity, the research project INFORMED (Integrated research on FOrest Resilience and Management in the Mediterranean), funded by the ERA-Net FORESTERRA, is conducted by a multidisciplinary consortium of 21 research groups from 10 countries, representing both the Northern and Southern Rim. Mediterranean forests are viewed as complex social-ecological systems where management, ecological and socio-economic processes operate at different spatial-temporal scales and interact, determining their response to disturbance and disturbance regime scenarios.

INFORMED relies on a process-based approach that integrates knowledge (i.e. data and models) issued from a broad range of case studies representing various forest types, socio-economic assets and global change scenarios found in the area, from Northern Africa to the Mediterranean margins of temperate forests. The project aims to (1) produce global change scenarios specifically dedicated to the Mediterranean forests, (2) develop quantitative assessment of biodiversity and functional response of Mediterranean forests to disturbance and management, (3) develop integrated assessment of ecosystem services and their dynamics based on ecosystem functions and their economic evaluation, and (4) evaluate adaptive management strategies, policy and governance options for their expected impact on resilience of Mediterranean forests.

To illustrate this original multidisciplinary research, we present the overall interdisciplinary conceptual framework where different mechanisms of flexibility are considered jointly, and the first evidence deriving from the past work on resilience in the selected case study areas.

## 2244-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2244-01

Current status and potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of consumed plants species by the endangered western derbyland (Taurotragus derbianus) in its last wild refuge Niokolo Koba National Park, South-Eastern Senegal

M. Camara (1) ; S. Da Sié (2) ; FN. Kouame (1) ; S. Bienvenu (3)

(1) GRP Climate Change and Biodiversity, University Félix houphouët-boigny, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Competence Center of the West African Science Service Center Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Biodiversity modelling, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, (ise/fst) university cheikh anta diop of dakar, Dakar, Senegal

Within the last decades, biodiversity became an important topic of social, political and scientific discussion because of its essential role in human well-being and survival. However, biodiversity is facing increasing threats, leading to its loss, caused by different factors among which climate change. It is urgent to take action to ensure its sustainable use and conservation. The Western Derbyland (Taurotragus derbianus derbianus Gray, 1847), the biggest antelope worldwide is recorded as endangered species even close to extinction. Endemic to West Africa, its wild habitat is shrunk nowadays to Niokolo Koba National Park (NKNP) Southeast Senegal with Soudano-Guinean climate, where an exponential decrease of its population is noticed. Conservationists in hope of preserving its genetic pools established the first breeding herd worldwide to an ex-situ conservation site, the Bandia reserve Centre West with a Sahelo-Soudanian climate. Researches have been carried out on derby land in wild but they had a narrow-scope, limited and limited group of animals in the national park. Until today, very few is known on the wild land in its last natural refuge. Previous studies have defined Boscia angustifolia, Grewia bicolor, Hymenocardia acidia, Strychnos spinosa and Ziziphus mauritiana as consumed woody species by eland. A step to maintain and allow the population increase of eland within the NKNP is to assure the presence of these woody species in the area. Therefore, knowledge on their current and future distributions within the NKNP is important to understand the perpetuity of the eland in its last wild exploration. The aims of this present work are to (i) identify the current potential distribution of eland's consumed plant species with climatic and land-cover variables as predictors and (ii) predict the future distribution of these species based on different climate models and scenarios for decision makers and rangeland managers. To achieve these aims two types of dataset are necessary: species occurrence and environmental data. Occurrence points of each woody species were obtained from field observations and additional records from herbaria of natural collection downloaded from GBIF website (Global Biodiversity Information Facility). Environmental variables were downloaded from Worldclim database for climate data and from the Global Landcover database for land cover variables. Possible impacts of climate change on the distribution of Eland consumed plant species were analyzed and presented on three climate models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), at two periods of time (2050 and 2070). Current and future potential distributions of suitable habitats for the woody species were determined at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-second using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach.

Preliminary results of the ongoing analysis show a good potential distribution of consumed plant species by eland in the NKNP in general. Three out (Grewia bicolor, Hymenocardia acidia, and Ziziphus mauritiana) of the five woody species are found almost everywhere within the park. In contrary, Strychnos spinosa has is range restricted to the central part while Boscia angustifolia is confined in the eastern part. Projections illustrate a negative impact of climate change on the consumed plants by the eland, with a severe loss of suitable habitats for most of the species, except from Hymenocardia acidia and Ziziphus mauritiana which will likely remain within the NKNP.

The loss of suitable habitats for the consumed species by eland will have negative impacts on his maintenance in the park. We therefore recommend the development of strategies for a good conservation of these remaining plant species by reducing for example human actions.

### P-2244-02

Climate change adaptation for the Amazon basin: how can ecosystem-based solutions be multiplied?

P. Ceotto (1) ; T. Kasecker, (2) ; R. Pinheiro, (1) ; JMC. Da Silva (3) ; FR. Scarano, (4)

(1) Conservation International, Americas Sustainability
Center, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (2) Conservation International, Brazil field program, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (3) Universidade Federal do Amapá, Pôs-grauação em biodiversidade tropical, Macapá, Brazil; (4) Conservation International and Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Americas sustainability center and departamento de ecologia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Land use change has meant to date a reduction of nearly 20% of the natural cover of the Panamáian region, which comprises eight Amazonian countries and one overseas territory. There are projections suggesting that if the current pace of deforestation is not halted soon, climatic conditions will become drier and the system may turn into an opener and drier one, where fire risks are higher and precipitation and humidity lower. This ' savannization ' would potentially have large-scale impacts on climate, biodiversity and livelihoods locally, as well as globally.

The latest IPCC assessment report pointed out a set of sub-national and national initiatives of climate change adaptation in the Amazon that are based on ecosystems. Ecosystem-based adaptation (Eba) refers to practices that reduce human vulnerabilities by harnessing the capacity of nature to buffer human communities against the adverse impacts of climate change. The Amazon region simultaneously holds the largest continuous green tropical cover of the planet and a population of more than 30 million habitants, many of which live in poverty. The poorest are the most vulnerable people to climate change. Then, these characteristics turn the Amazon into a key geography to implement and learn from practices related to ecosystem-based adaptation and sustainable development. Protected area networks, indigenous territories, community management, conservation inventories and forest reserves are all practices that can be considered Eba as long as they reduce societies' vulnerability to climate change by protecting natural resources and improving livelihoods.

In this paper we review some of the existing national and sub-national policies and practices taking place in the Amazon that can be classified as Eba. Mapped cases include from local to global development or conservation agreements to local level initiatives (such as sustainability policies at municipal level or community management of areas under protection). We analyzed the selected cases on the basis of the following criteria: resilience potential, risk reduction, cost-effectiveness, emissions reduction, replicability, and scalability. We emphasize the need to showcase, methodology, and case studies. We favor dissemination of solutions across the region. Main conclusions are that 1) protected areas networks and indigenous lands that add up to more than 45% of the total cover the Amazon need further consolidation; 2) national and sub-national conservation incentive mechanisms need further assessment but have a high potential for replication across the region; 3) efforts aiming for sustainability at sub-national level must be measured and understood for potential replication or even to inspire the design of new policies; 4) adaptation to climate change in Amazonia will be predominantly ecosystem-based, but planning requires regional level integration and exchange of policies and practices between national and sub-national actors.

P-2244-03

Climate Change impact of loss Agro-biodi-

K. Nadiradze (1); M. Goginashvili (2)

(1) Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD, President, Tbilisi, Georgia; (2) Tbilisi State University, Economic and business faculty, Tbilisi, Georgia

Climate change is occurring more rapidly than anticipated and the increase in extreme weather events threatens more disruptive effects to agriculture. Existing technologies and current institutional structures seem inadequate to achieve the mitigation needed to adequately slow climate change effects, while also meeting food security, food safety, livelihood and sustainability goals in Developing Countries especially like Georgia. Identifying actions that are science-based, utilize knowledge systems and technology transfer in new ways, and provide resilience for food systems and ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes despite the future uncertainty of climate change and extreme events. Recognizing the urgency, Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD organizing the Training Programs for its member farmers on this

important topics: Climate Smart Agriculture, Mitigation and Adaptation, Conservation of Agrobiodiversity and creation of in-situ, ex-situ, in-farm and on-farm collection of seeds and species of must threatened Agro bio-diverse endemic plants in Georgia. We also know that the most diverse ecosystems will be the most resilient and adaptable in the face of changing climates. Every species has a role to play in a functioning ecosystem, and conserving ecosystems is therefore an important way of conserving species. However, in order to ensure effective conservation, climate change management strategy of our NGO will require reliable scientific data both on the nature of climate change and on its potential impact on plants and plant communities.

P-2244-04

Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna

F. Olorunfemi (1) ; M. Fasona (2) ; G. Oloukoi (3) ; P. Elias (4); V. Adayejo (4)

(1) Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Social and Governance Policy Research Department, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) University of Lagos, Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (3) Lead City University, Environmental management, Ibadan, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (4) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Indigenous traditional knowledge and biodiversity are complimentary phenomena essential to human development and sustainable resource management. The rural communities have a significant role to play in maintaining the integrity of ecosystems to ensure that it continues to support livelihood activities. This paper discussed traditional knowledge in the use and management of forest resources in the Nigerian savanna and how this knowledge has been used to improve the livelihoods of the people. It combines focal group discussions, key informants interviews and household survey in 11 communities across 10 local councils with vegetal surveys. The results of this study revealed that people in the area possess considerable knowledge of the natural resources they use and how to ensure the sustainability of some these resources to ensure that they continue to support their livelihoods. Strategies and integration of coordinated efforts aimed at poverty alleviation and food security with measures to combat land degradation, reduce loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such integrated measures must be science-based but community driven to ensure its sustainability and synergy.

P-2244-05

Bio-Diversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing in changing landscapes: Future challenges

A. Venkata Nagavarma (1)

(1) P.G.Courses & Research Center, D.N.R.(Autonomous) College(Andhra University - Estd. 1945), ECONOMICS, BHIMAVARAM, Andhra Pradesh, India

Climate change affects the living world, including people, through changes in ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Ecosystems entail all the non-living things in a particular area as well as the non-living things with which they interact, such as air, soil, water, and sunlight. Biodiversity refers to the variety of life, including the number of species, life forms, genetic types, and habitats and biomes (which are characteristic groupings of plant and animal species found in a particular climate). Biodiversity and ecosystems produce a rich array of benefits that people depend on, including fisheries, drinking water, fertile soils for growing crops, climate regulation, inspiration, and aesthetic and cultural values. These benefits are called 'ecosystem services' - some of which, like food, are more easily quantified than others, such as climate regulation or cultural values. Changes in many such services are often not obvious to those who depend on them.

The future of humanity depends on whether or not we have
a vision to guide our transition toward sustainability, on scales ranging from local landscapes to the planet as a whole. Sustainability science is at the core of this vision, and landscapes and regions represent a pivotal scale domain. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to elucidate key definitions and concepts of sustainability, including the Brundtland definition, the triple bottom line, weak and strong sustainability, resilience, human well-being, and ecosystem services; (2) to examine key definitions and concepts of landscape sustainability, including those derived from general concepts and those developed for specific landscapes; and (3) to propose a framework for developing a science of landscape sustainability. Landscape sustainability is defined as the capacity of a landscape to consistently provide long-term, landscape-specific ecosystem services essential for maintaining and improving human well-being. Fundamentally, well-being is a journey, not a destination. Landscape sustainability science is a place-based, use-inspired science of understanding and improving the dynamic relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being in changing landscapes under uncertainties arising from internal feedbacks and external disturbances. While landscape sustainability science emphasizes place-based research on landscape and regional scales, significant between landscape interactions and hierarchical linkages to both finer and broader scales (and externalities) must not be ignored. To advance landscape sustainability science, spatially explicit methods are essential, especially experimental approaches that take advantage of designed landscapes and multi-scaled simulation models that couple the dynamics of landscape services (ecosystem services provided by multiple landscape elements in combination as emergent properties) and human well-being.

# 2245 - Modelling the complexities of the Earth System

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2245-01

#### Why do we use Earth System models ?

J.-L. Dufresne (1)

(1) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - IPSL, UPMC/CNRS, Paris, France

Not communicated.

### O-2245-01

#### Investigation delay sensitivity of temperature, sea level and ocean acidification

P. Pfister (1) ; T. Stocker (1)

(1) Physics Institute, University of Bern, Climate and environmental physics, Bern, Switzerland

With annually increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions, the commitment to climate change and its impacts continues to grow. A policy-relevant metric for this growth is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), measuring the additional commitment per decade until emissions start to decrease. For the peak temperature increase $\Delta T$, MDS can be estimated analytically using idealized emission scenarios (Allen and Stocker, 2014; Stocker, 2013). Here, we use an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity to evaluate the MDS of $\Delta T$, steric sea level rise (SSLR), and two ocean acidification impacts following Steinacher et al. (2013). We examine the dependence of the MDS on the rate of increase ($r$) and subsequent decrease ($s$) in annual emissions, for three different equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECS) of 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 K. The modeled MDS is in good agreement with analytical estimates for $\Delta T$ and SSLR, except for scenarios with very high cumulative emissions. For standard parameters ($ECS = 3.0$ K, $r = 2\%$ and $s$ ranging from 5% down to 0.5%), MDS amounts to $0.3-0.7$ K/decade for $\Delta T$ and 7-20 cm/decade for SSLR by 3000 AD. With regard to ocean acidification, we find that partial Aragonite undersaturation of the Southern Ocean surface (by 2100 AD) may be avoided with sufficiently early and stringent mitigation. MDS is 15-17% of the Southern Ocean area per decade for standard parameters, but for $s>3\%$ no undersaturation occurs if

Keywords: Sustainability Landscape sustainability science _ Landscape sustainability spectrum _ Ecosystem services _ Human well-being _ Key research questions and approaches

### P-2244-06

#### Building Resilience at Sub National level Using Climate Resilience Framework

SK. Yadav (1) ; A. Dixit, (1)

(1) Institute for Social and Environment Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Research, Kathmandu, Nepal

Nepal's ecosystems generate various goods and services for its people. Climate change with its direct consequences on the hydrological cycle can impact ecosystems, lives and livelihoods seriously and adversely. These changes will lower the resilience of ecological and infrastructural systems as well as the functioning of water, food and livelihoods services. Ecosystem based adaptation as an element of an overall strategy can help reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and build people's resilience in the face of the adverse impacts of climate change. This paper will present the use of climate change vulnerability in wake of ongoing climate taking into account the role of ecosystem services using the climate Resilience Framework (CRF). The CRF conceives climate vulnerability to be highest when increased exposure intersects with fragile systems, social marginalization and constraining institutions. Drawing on findings of research conducted in Nepal's Western Development Region the paper will discuss the use of both top down and bottom up approach to assess risks and develop strategies for building resilience at sub national levels.

emissions start to decrease before 2030. Further loss of strongly supersaturated ocean surface areas (associated with coral reef habitats) is virtually unavoidable, but can be substantially reduced by mitigation. For standard parameters, we already committed to a loss of roughly 30-90% of these areas by 2100 AD, even with immediate mitigation (with respect to preindustrial); MDS amounts to an additional loss of 22-66% of the remaining area per decade.

### O-2245-02

#### Do ENSO modeling discrepancies affect the climate-carbon feedbacks?

A. Bastos (1) ; C. Gouveia (1) ; R. Trigo (1)

(1) Instituto Dom Luiz - Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

The El-Nino/Southern Oscillation controls most of global climate variability on inter-annual time-scales. In particular, ENSO affects temperature and precipitation patterns in South America and Southeast Asia, although its influence extends to remote regions and latitudes.

ENSO is also known to play an important role in the carbon-cycle, influencing a large fraction of variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate, mainly due to its impact on terrestrial ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere. During El-Nino events, lower than average precipitation and warmer temperatures are registered in most of northern and central South America, South Africa and most of Australia, leading to reduced CO2 uptake by vegetation, and to increased fire activity. During the cold phases (La-Nina), the patterns are approximately reversed and the land-sink is enhanced.

Although Earth-System Models (ESMs) in CMIP5 do include representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling processes that produce ENSO, they still present difficulties in modeling some of the most relevant features of the phenomenon, such as the temporal evolution and recurrence periods of warm and cold phases.

It has been shown that the difference between model estimates of future CO2 concentration are related to their biases in representing present atmospheric CO2. Moreover, the larger disagreements of future CO2 uptake are due to
uncertainty about the future response of the land-sink to climate change. It has been further shown that part of the uncertainties in future estimates of CO2 storage on terrestrial ecosystems are related to the differences in the climate forcing from the global circulation models (GCMs).

Here we investigate whether the discrepancies between observations and modeled ENSO may explain biases in the modeled present land-sink in CMIP5 ESMs. We evaluate the performance of ESMs in reproducing, for the period 1959-2011, a set of temporal features, such as the intensity, spatial configuration, and spectral properties of ENSO. Subsequently, the ability of ESMs to reproduce the global land-sink strength and variability was evaluated and compared to the relationship between the modeled ENSO and variability in the modeled land-sink. We find that biases in the land-sink are related to the way ESMs simulate future ESM-LR, which have the values of K varies by about 0.05. This is due to the ENSO variability and that, in turn, is mainly dependent on the spectral properties of the modeled ENSO. The ESMs that mis-represent the peak periodicity of ENSO in the 3-7 years band tend to present larger errors in the modeled land-sink characteristics. The nature of this relationship between ENSO discrepancies and land-sink biases was studied by evaluating the influence of discrepancies in ENSO frequency on temperature and precipitation patterns within each model.

The analysis was further extended to the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, by evaluating the influence of the discrepancies of the present terrestrial CO2 uptake on the future land-sink and the role played by ENSO in these discrepancies.

## O-2245-03

# Spread of ocean heat uptake efficiency in CMIP models

E. Exarchou (1) ; J. Gregory (2) ; T. Kuhlbrodt (2)

(1) IC3, Barcelona, Spain; (2) NCAS, University of Reading and Met Office Hadley Centre, Reading, United Kingdom

During transient climate change, the ocean heat uptake efficiency, quantified by the ratio between the rate of ocean heat uptake N and surface global-mean temperature change DT, can quantitatively measure how effectively the heat is vertically transported in the deeper ocean, thus modulating surface transient change. Among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework, the DT in the values of K varies by about a factor of 2. The spread in DT affects the model spread in projections of ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion, therefore contributing to the uncertainty in model future projections of transient climate change. We investigate potential sources of model spread in kappa by using a set of 23 CMIP models with CO2 increasing at a rate of 1% per year. In the set of models we analyse, in line with previous studies, the models with the strongest AMOC have the strongest CO2-induced AMOC reduction. We find that the models with the strongest AMOC, and consequently the models with the strongest AMOC reduction, have the strongest ocean heat uptake efficiency. Despite the strong correlation with AMOC, the largest portion of the ocean heat uptake efficiency and of its spread comes from the Southern Ocean. By further analysing the detailed process-based heat budgets in three models, HadGEM2, GFDL-ESM2-ESM-LR, which have the values from the low, middle and high part of the kappa spread, we find that the spread in these three models mainly arises from changes in advection. The dominant part of the advective ocean heat uptake takes place in the Southern Ocean. We explore potential physical mechanisms that link the Southern Ocean advective heat uptake, hence the Southern Ocean overturning, with the AMOC and the ocean heat uptake efficiency.

## O-2245-04

# Forest Mortality, Economics, and Climate

L. Hawkins (1) ; B. Law (2) ; P. Mote (3) ; A. Plantinga (4) ; J. Hicke (5) ; M. Allen (6) ; R. Betts (7)

(1) Oregon State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon, United States of America; (2) Oregon State University, Forest ecosystems & society, Oregon, United States of America; (3) Oregon State University, Earth, ocean, & atmospheric sciences, Oregon, United States of America; (4) University of California Santa Barbara, Natural resource economics and policy, California, United States of America;

(5) University of Idaho, Geography, Idaho, United States of America; (6) University of Oxford, School of geography and the environment, Oxford, United Kingdom; (7) University of Exeter, Geography, Exeter, United Kingdom

Forests in western North America provide critical economic and environmental services including watershed protection, timber production, and carbon sequestration. Recently this region has experienced widespread forest mortality attributed to droughts, fires, and regional warming. Forest mortality rates doubled in the Pacific Northwest between 1990 and 2010 with bark beetles killing trees across 11 million hectares in B.C and the western U.S. The complex interactions among climate, ecosystem response, and economic factors govern the impacts these stressors will have on terrestrial ecosystems in the future. To examine how major forests will function under future ESM-LR, we couple an improved forest mortality model to NCAR's Community Land Model (CLM4.5) incorporating a predictive model of mountain pine beetle outbreaks and a forest product economic model. The economic model estimates the values of private forest investment, wood products, recreation, and water. Annual harvest levels, silvicultural investments, and forest management strategies feedback into CLM. This methodology will elucidate feedbacks among climate, land use, forest ecosystems, carbon sequestration and ecosystem services. To assess uncertainty in the simulated forest response to climate change a dynamic vegetation model (TRIFFID operating within the Hadley Centre Earth System Model) is used to generate a super-ensemble of simulations using crowd sourced computing (climateprediction.net). This novel form of evaluating intrinsic variability allows for thorough investigation of model sensitivity to parameterization. Outcomes of this work will provide policy makers and resource managers with tools for developing adaptive strategies for responding to projected warming, drought, insects, and economic factors.

## O-2245-05

# Modeling and visualization of the marshes vegetation

A. Sadovski (1) ; P. Montagna, (2) ; S. King, (3)

(1) TexasA&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, United States of America; (2) Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Harte research Institute for the gulf of mexico, Corpus Christi, United States of America; (3) Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, School of engineering and computing sciences, Corpus Christi, United States of America

This paper deals with a mathematical models of the vegetation growth in the marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. It is a spatial-temporal model of multi-species competition presented in the form of the system of partial differential equations. Analysis of the behavior of such a system is studied through simulation and visualization tools. The objective of the study is to find the impact of fresh water releases and precipitations on the vegetation cover of marshes so it can be used for future preservation of the marsh ecological system.

Coastal marshes are important ecosystems that provide many benefits to human health and well-being including: protecting the inland areas from storm surge, storing water, removing nutrients that flow from watersheds and providing nurseries for key species and recreational fisheries. Yet, marshes are under extreme pressure from development and 50% of the marshes nationwide have disappeared since the founding of the United States.

The Texas coast is flat, hot, and windy; which makes coastal marshes very susceptible to effects of climate change and water resource development. Climate change can have three effects: sea-level rise, water cycle alterations, and temperature alterations. The main effects will be to drain marshes during rising water levels or dry them out as evapotranspiration rates increase during droughts. Water resource development has decreased water delivery to marshes in the Nueces Delta by 45% over the last 40 years, which has led to marsh degradation.

There is a need to understand the dynamics and the interactive roles of climate and water cycle changes in order to predict changes in salt marshes in the future. This information is critical for resource management. However, few tools exist to forecast effects of human activities on marsh function. Results and models of this
of sea level change and what are its current limitations as opposed to scenario building have create rich dialogue which has helped bridge the disconnect between the science- policy interface.

The modeling has occurred in a nested configuration to cover the Arabian Peninsula at a 12km grid and a 4km grid over the UAE as well as part of Oman and Saudi. 4km is extremely computationally heavy and substantially more robust than the previous studies undertaken by EAD etc. The Oceans Modeling is also run at 1 km resolution which is also incredibly precise in comparison to global modeling which we also used for past studies in the region.

Regional Ocean Models (ROMs) are essential for understanding how future climate change will affect specific locations within the world's oceans. Such models are a significant improvement over coarse resolution ESMs because they more realistically capture local oceanographic processes and characteristics, such as sea surface temperature profiles, circulation patterns, fresher simulations of the Earth's climate.

The ROM for the Arabian Gulf has been developed, based on ESM boundary conditions and local data, and used to make climate change projections out through the late 21st century. The outputs of the study provide a Gulf specific basis on which to conduct the subsequently planned vulnerability assessments of the programme regarding marine biodiversity and socioeconomic systems, as well as be an asset to researchers in the region regarding future climate change and the marine environment.

Regional atmospheric modeling is essential for understanding how climatic conditions will change at specific locations within the region. Such models are a significant improvement over global models because they more realistically represent local to regional meteorological dynamics, such as orographic precipitation, land-ocean wind breezes and circulations, surface heating and evaporation, on-shore and off-shore wind patterns, and other factors that influence current and future climate.

The primary goal of the regional atmospheric modeling using WRF was to develop projections of regional climate for the Arabian Peninsula at fine spatial and temporal scales. The modeling effort builds off and reflects the large-scale features and temporal trends from GCM simulations based on the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The modeling was conducted on the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer or "Yellowstone".

The outputs of the study provide a Gulf region-specific basis on which to conduct subsequent planned vulnerability assessments under the programme regarding terrestrial biodiversity, water resources, coastal zones and socioeconomic systems.

## P-2245-04

# Southern Ocean wind response to North Atlantic cooling and the rise in atmospheric CO2

### SY. Lee (1)

(1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan

Southern Ocean, believes to be a CO2 sink (Takahashi, 2012), remains a mystery player in understanding the global carbon cycle and in predicting future climate change. Key evidence from marine proxy record indicates intensification of wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean during the late Pleistocene glacial terminations and suggests that the anomalous southern hemisphere midlatitude westerlies were forced by North Atlantic cooling via atmospheric teleconnection (Anderson et al., 2009). In this study, we investigate the response of Southern Ocean climate to North Atlantic cooling using an AGCM coupled to a reduced gravity ocean to link the empirical observation with climate theory. In comparison between our cooling and basic state experiments, we observed a nearly 25% increase in the Southern Ocean midlattice westerlies in particular in the Pacific sector during austral winter. We propose a two-step mechanism of the north-south climate connection: (1) the response of the tropical ITCZ to North Atlantic cooling; (2) the resulting effect of the altered oceanic environment on Southern Ocean winds. In light of the vital role of the Southern ocean ventilation to atmospheric CO2 concentration, we forced

an earth system model with dynamical biogeochemical cycle by anomalous wind field observed in the AGCM and found a ~20 ppm atmospheric CO2 rise in equilibrium state. The model results support the hypothesis that the Southern Ocean wind-driven upwelling was susceptible to intensive North Atlantic cooling under a glacial climate. We emphasize the intimate coupling between the northern and southern hemisphere climate via atmospheric teleconnection mediated by tropical climate system.

## P-2245-05

# Climatic sensitivity of the Brazilian Ocean System Model integration submitted to abrupt CO2 change

### JF. Pesquero (1); N. Paulo (1)

(1) National Institute for Space Research, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, Chacheiro Paulista, Brazil

This work analyzes the climatic sensitivity response of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-version 2.5) when exposed to abrupt CO2 changes. We will calculate differences between two, 30 years experiments of the BESM model, from 2007 to 2036 (30 years), both of runs start from a 150 years spinup, but one run has atmospheric CO2 constant concentration at preindustrial values (280 ppm) and the other has constant and abrupt 1200 ppm (4xCO2). Note that both of the Northeast as the Southeast and southern Midwest regions of Brazil are showing similar characteristics in magnitude of CDD between 5 and 30 days. The BESM model Total Precipitation (PRCPTOT-CLIMDEX index) indicates an increase from 50 to 200 mm on the South, Southeast of the Mid West of Brazil. The Constant Wet Days (CWD-CLIMDEX index) are decreasing 20 days over the great part of North Region of Brazil. When comparing BESM Frost Days (FD-CLIMDEX index) with FD of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) there is a very similar pattern but the BESM showed elevated number of FD. When comparing Summer Days (SU CLIMDEX index) between BESM and CCSM4 models, both of models showed very similar profile of Summer Days, but the CCSM showed smaller values than BESM. Finally, these results showed that the model BESM has a good climatic sensitivity response.

## P-2245-06

# A theoretical Basis for Integrated Assessment Models

### FA. Pinto Siabatto (1)

(1) PIK, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany

A mathematical model that couples structural change of countries and flows' dynamics has been developed. It proposes a comprehensive representation of the socioeconomic structure. The model introduces an explicit description of three processes: GDP growth, the mitigation of damages from uncertain impacts in economic activities, and socioeconomic adjustments that bring about the adaptive capacity. It also holds a representation of resilience. The model makes explicit the endogenization problem that needs to be solved. Working out this problem will allow the numerical assessment of resilience. It also paves the path to the harmonization of metrics relating resources, economic flows and social welfare.

## P-2245-07

# Photochemistry of ozone at the surface of cloud water droplets: insights from computer simulations

### M. Ruiz-Lopez (1) ; J. Anglada (2) ; M. Martins-Costa (1) ; JS. Francisco (3)

(1) University of Lorraine, SRSMC, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France; (2) CSIC, Departament de química biológica i modelització molecular, Barcelona, Spain; (3) University of Nebraska-Lincoln, College of arts & sciences, Lincoln, NE,
Atmospheric reactions in condensed media such as water droplets, organic aerosols, soot, sea salt particles, etc., are thought to play significant roles in the troposphere. Reactions at surfaces have attracted special attention, in particular those occurring at the air/water interface of water droplets since clouds represent about 7% in volume of the troposphere. Typically, water droplets exhibit a high surface area to volume ratio and this is certainly a determining factor for surface reactions to compete with bulk reactions. The molecular properties of compounds interacting with an aqueous interface have been often considered as being intermediate between the properties in the two bulk phases but there is now compelling evidence that chemistry at the air/water interface may be quite different from both the gas and the bulk.

However, the experimental study of chemical processes at aqueous interfaces is not straightforward. To get further insights in this domain, in the last few years, we have developed a computational strategy that combines quantum chemistry methods, classical molecular mechanics models, and computer simulations based on the molecular dynamics approach.

In this communication, we report recently obtained results for the photochemistry of ozone at the surface of cloud water droplets. Photolysis reactions are central to atmospheric chemistry. Ozone in particular, absorbs UV and visible light and photodissociates to produce molecular and atomic oxygen either in the ground or excited states. Atomic oxygen can then react with water or methane molecules to form the highly reactive hydroxyl radicals, often referred to as the "detergent" of the troposphere. These processes have been widely investigated in the gas phase but when ozone is adsorbed at the surface of cloud water droplets, the ozone-water interactions modify the spectral signatures, and the mechanism and the kinetics of the photolytic (and subsequent) processes are presumably different and deserve to be investigated in further detail.

Indeed, our computer simulations predict that the hydroxyl radical formation rate at the air/water interface is enhanced by four orders of magnitude, suggesting that clouds can influence the overall oxidizing capacity of the troposphere on a global scale.
# 3301-Climate Intervention: Evaluating its Risks, Benefits, and Potential

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3301-01

#### Climate Intervention: A Summary of the U.S. National Research Council Report on Geoengineering

##### W. Abdalati (1)

(1) University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States of America

Climatologically, humans are in unfamiliar territory. Failure over the last few decades to adopt substantive climate mitigation strategies has continued to stress the planet in ways that present some well-understood and some poorly understood risks that pose a threat to human livelihood across the globe. These risks, which continue to increase as greenhouse forcing proceeds unabated, have raised some important questions about the viability of climate intervention (often referred to as geoengineering) as a means to avoid or reduce some of the consequences of climate change. Strategies for such intervention fall into two categories, representing two very different approaches to addressing the climate challenge. The first is carbon dioxide reduction – the removal from the atmosphere and reliable storage of carbon, which has elements of a mitigation approach in that it seeks to reduce the amount of CO2 that enters or remains in the atmosphere. The second is albedo modification, which seeks to increase the amount of sunlight reflected from the Earth, thus reducing the surface incident radiation.

There is a pressing need for a careful and clear scientific foundation that can inform ethical, legal, and political discussions surrounding climate intervention. Toward that end, the National Research Council (NRC) of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences undertook a study to assess the current state of knowledge associated with climate intervention, which resulted in a set of recommendations to inform future decisions on possible climate intervention research and deployment. This talk will present the NRC committee's findings and recommendations, which speak to: the state of readiness of climate intervention methods and the associated challenges, their value in the context of mitigation and adaptation strategies, research needs for advancing our understanding of climate intervention approaches in order to make informed decisions on their deployment, and governance considerations for such research.

Climate intervention is fraught with a wide range of risks and uncertainty. The key question that underpins the need for and approach to research is whether climate change may push society to a state in which the risks associated with non-intervention may outweigh the risks of intervention. Making such an assessment requires a foundation of knowledge and understanding.

### K-3301-02

#### Volcanic Eruptions as an Analog for Stratospheric Geoengineering

##### A. Robock (1)

(1) Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America

In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed interest in geoengineering "solutions" involving "solar radiation management" by injecting particles into the stratosphere, brightening clouds or the surface, or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. No systems to conduct geoengineering now exist, but a comparison of different proposed stratospheric injection schemes, using airplanes, balloons, and artillery, shows that using airplanes to put sulfur gases into the stratosphere would not be expensive. Nevertheless, it would be very difficult to create stratospheric sulfate particles with a desirable size distribution. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano

analog also argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion, regional hydrologic responses, and other negative consequences. Volcanic eruptions are an imperfect analog, since solar radiation management proposals involve the production of a permanent stratospheric aerosol layer, while volcanic layers are episodic. Nonetheless, we can learn much from the volcanic example about the microphysics of stratospheric sulfate particles; changes in atmospheric circulation, producing regional climate responses, such as changes to the summer monsoon; atmospheric chemistry; changes of the partitioning of direct and diffuse insolation; effects on satellite remote sensing and terrestrial-based astronomy; and impacts on the carbon cycle. There are 26 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea, and five reasons why it might be a good idea. Some of these can be evaluated with climate modeling, and some using the volcanic analog. Observations of the next large volcanic eruption will help to understand the evolution in stratospheric sulfate aerosol size distribution over the first few months after the eruption. Much more research is needed before we can quantify each of these, so that policymakers in the future can make informed decisions about whether to ever implement stratospheric geoengineering. Given what we know today, global efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions and to adapt to climate change are a much better way to address anthropogenic global warming.

### K-3301-03

#### The governance of solar geoengineering

##### S. Schäfer (1) ; N. Moore, (1)

(1) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

This talk will give an overview of past developments in the governance of solar geoengineering research, contextualize these developments within broader debates on research governance, and conclude with an outlook on how the early governance of solar geoengineering research is relevant to potential future dynamics of international conflict and cooperation on solar geoengineering. Solar geoengineering research has proven fertile ground for calls for and adoption of understandings that reflect new characteristics of science (for example, as 'post-normal'), new ways of assessing scientific results (for example, through 'extended peer review' or 'technologies of humility'), and new processes for conducting research (for example, 'transdisciplinarity' or 'mode 2 science'), which aim to foster cooperation between broader sets of stakeholders and thereby to accommodate their values and beliefs into the research process. Whether these can be put into practice or not will set precedents and norms that are carried forward into negotiations over future activities, including those that may be deployment-related.

### O-3301-01

#### Studying the limitations of stratospheric aerosol injections by microphysical processes and interaction with radiation using the IPSL climate model

##### C. Kleinschmitt (1) ; O. Boucher (2) ; U. Platt (1)

(1) Heidelberg University, Institut de Environmental Physics, Heidelberg, Germany; (2) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS / IPSL, Paris, France

Current studies assessing climate engineering by stratospheric aerosols injections (SAI), like those performed in the framework of GeoMIP, reveal numerous risks and undesirable side effects of this method. But they largely rely on the assumption that increasing radiative forcing by greenhouse gases can be counterbalanced by sufficiently large aerosol injections, at least on a global scale. However, there are various processes that might have the potential to severely limit the efficacy of SAI, but which are not considered in most of the participating earth system models. Among them, there is coagulation of aerosol particles leading to an increase in particle size, which reduces scattering efficiency and stratospheric
lifetime through sedimentation. Interaction with infrared radiation, i.e. the aerosol's own greenhouse effect, can also limit the desired cooling effect.

In order to get a better estimate of the cooling potential of SAI from global climate simulations, all these processes were implemented in the IPSL climate model using an aerosol bin scheme. A new radiative transfer scheme is used for the SAI, but also for terrestrial infrared radiation. Results from climate model experiments showing the influence of each one of the relevant microphysical and radiative processes on the cooling potential if SAI will be presented.

## O-3301-02

### Cirrus cloud thinning: Do the right conditions exist, and how can it be tested with observations?

D. Mitchell (1); A. Garnier (2); M. Avery (3)

(1) Desert Research Institute, Atmospheric Sciences, Reno, Nevada, United States of America; (2) UPMC-UVSQ-CNRS, Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales, Paris, France; (3) NASA, Atmospheric composition, Hampton, United States of America

This presentation will describe recent scientific developments on a climate intervention (CI) method sometimes called cirrus cloud thinning, addressing (1) new evidence that supports its underlying physical assumptions; (2) a means of field testing the CI method without affecting the environment (i.e. without cloud seeding); and (3) how to reduce uncertainties concerning its radiative and climate impacts.

While GCM testing of cirrus cloud thinning suggests it has some advantages over stratospheric aerosol injection, cirrus CI will not work when ice is primarily formed through heterogeneous nucleation for $T < -38^\circ C$. Field campaigns have shown that ice in cold cirrus is generally produced heterogeneously, but these campaigns have not addressed the cirrus at high latitudes that would determine the effectiveness of cirrus CI.

A new understanding of thermal absorption in two split-window channels has rendered a reinterpretation of a standard CALIPSO satellite retrieval (the effective absorption optical depth ratio, or $\beta\bar{e}$), and a tight correlation between $\beta\bar{e}$ and the N/IWC ratio has been demonstrated, where N = the ice particle number concentration and IWC = ice water content. When applied to cold semi-transparent cirrus clouds having emissivities between 0.4 and 0.8, we find that (1) polar cold cirrus ($T < -38^\circ C$) occur much more often during winter than during summer and (2) N/IWC is relatively high at high latitudes during winter, suggesting that homogeneous nucleation occurs frequently there. Homogeneous nucleation is further supported by the fact that high N/IWC values tend to coincide with regions of low mineral dust concentration as predicted by CAM5 (Storelvmo and Herger, 2014, JGR). This high N/IWC during winter (and probably from Dec. -April) is likely to have a strong greenhouse effect that may increase high latitude temperatures by 2-5K relative to cirrus conditions where heterogeneous nucleation dominates (Storelvmo et al., 2014, Philos. Trans. A, Royal Soc.). Thus, implementing cirrus CI at high latitudes (in both hemispheres) only during the months when noontime mineral dust zenith angles are very low or when the sun never rises (i.e. seeding only 15% of the planet) may have a comparable cooling effect at high latitudes where global warming is most severe, and may have a mean global cooling of 1.4K as shown in Storelvmo et al. (2014, Philos. Trans. A, Royal Soc.). These satellite findings indicate that cirrus CI is a real possibility.

These N/IWC satellite retrievals also show that N/IWC at high latitudes during summer is relatively low and characteristic of heterogeneous ice nucleation. This may be the result of higher mineral dust concentrations, expected to be higher during summer at high latitudes. This apparent changing of ice nucleation mode from winter to summer may provide a natural means of field testing the cirrus CI method, without any need of cloud seeding from aircraft. The DOE ARM program is considering a field program for sampling wintertime Arctic cirrus ($T < -40^\circ C$) in response to these satellite retrievals due to their importance to climate science. In situ measurements of wintertime cold Arctic cirrus would allow their microphysical properties to be parameterized (i.e. cloud temperature related to

effective diameter $D_e$; $D_e$ related to mass-weighted ice fall speed) and contrasted with microphysical properties/ parameterizations associated with cirrus formed at similar temperatures through heterogeneous ice nucleation. GCM simulations using these parameterizations would then be able to evaluate the actual potential climate impact of cirrus cloud seeding (i.e. cirrus CI) at high latitudes, thus reducing various uncertainties associated with cirrus CI such as its cooling mode.

If a large scale CI field experiment were ever conducted on winter high latitude cirrus, this satellite method could be used to monitor these clouds and to determine whether the CI method was working (i.e. seeding with efficient ice nuclei was changing the nucleation mode).

Finally, it is noteworthy that cirrus CI appears to be the only radiation management CI approach that preferentially cools the Polar Regions where the effects of global warming are most severe.

## O-3301-03

### Low-cost low-risk space-based ge Engineering - is it possible?

A. Ellery (1)

(1) Carleton University, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Ottawa, ON, Canada

Space-based ge engineering is often discarded as an approach to ge engineering on the basis of cost and feasibility. The Angel approach is to launch modular component spacecraft into the Sun-Earth L1 point forming a solar shield to reduce the amount of solar energy incident on the Earth. The cost and feasibility constraints generally revolve around the issue of launch capacity from the Earth's surface. The proposed American lunar Resource Prospector Mission (PRM) slated for launch in 2018 offers another approach - the robotic use of lunar resources to bootstrap the feasibility of lower-cost space missions by reducing the amount of launched material. We present a preliminary feasibility and technological development assessment to manufacture the modular spacecraft required to realise a modular solar shield concept. The RPM mission will be investigating the extraction and processing of lunar soil - in particular, ilmenite (FeTiO3). It may be extracted magnetically and ilmenite grains are preferentially enriched in volatiles. Although dominated by hydrogen - itself a useful reductant as well as propellant with oxygen - it is a key candidate for components that may potentially be manufactured into plastics (silicone plastics in particular to conserve the carbon inventory). These volatiles may be evolved by heating the ilmenite grains to ~600°C using a simple fractional distillation column. The ilmenite is heated further to $>900°C$ with recycled hydrogen (from lunar water ice or recovered volatiles) to yield oxygen, wrought iron and titania ceramic grains: $FeTiO_3 + H_2 - TiO_2 + Fe + O_2$. Although the primary interest for RPM is in the recovered oxygen to support human lunar colonisation, our interest is in the iron to form the basis of a robotic industrial infrastructure. As well as iron, cast lunar basalt offers the possibility of compressive material as sacrificial structures to conserve iron for incorporation into manufactured spacecraft structures - wrought iron is a perfectly adequate structural material. The Moon exhibits a hostile thermal environment so thermal control materials will be essential any infrastructure as well as the spacecraft modules. TiO$_2$ is an excellent thermal (and electrical) insulator which may be formed into fibreglass. As well as thermal conduction, thermal conduction material is required - ferroïn, an alloy of iron, nickel and cobalt, is an excellent thermal and electrical conductor. Both Ni and Co may be sourced from mass concentration regions of the Moon, marking the locations of iron meteorite material. Semiconductor material is also available from lunar silicates minerals. From these materials, we have the basic elements we require to build a spacecraft mechanically, electrically and thermally. The only Earth-imported reagents required for isolation of these materials are Na and CI which nevertheless are recycled. The materials must be formed into useful structures, components and parts. The advent of 3D printing offers a versatile means of manufacturing that can handle plastics, metals and ceramics. Selective laser sintering is an approach that uses lasers to thermal fuse particles into layers, thereby building 3D structures that cannot be manufactured in any other way. Electronics without solid state manufacturing techniques represents a particular challenge though progress has been made in printed plastic electronics. Another option is to use 3D
printing to manufacture vacuum tube-based electronics for simple control systems. This approach is favoured because it relies on ceramics and metals already extracted. Indeed, thermionic emission with vacuum tubes offers a viable form of electric energy generation from thermal sources. My group has been exploring how to 3D print electric motors using multiple lunar-derived materials – core of iron plates, insulating plates and bobbins, and conducting wire – to construct a 3D printable universal motor. If successful, this offers the prospect that 3D printing could manufacture further manufacturing tools – lathes, milling stations, etc. to perform further manufacturing functions. Furthermore, electromagnetic launchers are derivatives of electric motors arrayed linearly rather than radially (different scale of course). This offers the prospect of launch with minimal fuel use. Indeed, 3D printers could potentially manufacture complete robotic devices – manipulators for assembly of parts, rovers for geophysical surveying and 3D printers themselves for self-replication. A corollary to this capability is that such 3D printing systems could manufacture the spacecraft modules required to implement a solar shield with a modest inventory launched from Earth.

## O-3301-04

# Climate Engineering and Policy Interaction Networks: The Challenges of Regulating a Complex System

J. Lawhead (1)

(1) University of Southern California, Earth Science / Philosophy, LOS ANGELES, United States of America

The global climate is a complex system. Among other things, this means that a complete analysis of the climate as a whole involves attending to the ways in which various geophysical and biological subsystems influence and constrain one another's behavior. This fact is widely appreciated. Less widely appreciated is the fact that climate policy design and analysis involves very similar considerations. Global policy initiatives like climate engineering will not be implemented in a social vacuum, and the emerging consensus is that climate engineering would be best employed as part of a multi-faceted strategy that also involves mitigation and adaptation programs. In light of this, it is vitally important that we think about the ways in which different climate-related policies might influence and constrain one another before we begin to implement any significant global policy.

While feasibility analyses and impact studies exist for many proposed climate engineering programs, very little attention has been paid to the ways in which such programs might interact with and constrain other international and national climate policies. This paper explores this "interaction problem" from an interdisciplinary perspective, focusing on a detailed hypothetical case study in which a solar radiation management by stratospheric aerosol injection program is combined with a global system of economic carbon credits. The conjunction of these two programs raises practical, theoretical, and ethical concerns that don't appear when either policy is considered alone, and which might significantly alter the effectiveness and feasibility of both programs. This incomplete picture, arising from analyzing climate engineering proposals in isolation, is a potentially dangerous oversight as we move closer and closer toward possible implementation.

# 3301-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

## P-3301-01

# Response of Indian Subcontinent to the Geoengineering of Climate: The effect of SRM on Cloud Area Fraction and Rainfall

P. Arora (1); SK. Mishra (2)

(1) IIT Delhi, Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India; (2) IIT Delhi, Centre for atmospheric sciences, New Delhi, India

The objective of this paper is to study the effects of Solar Indian Subcontinent, particularly how it changes the cloud area fraction and total precipitation over the region. Cloud area fraction and precipitation are highly model sensitive parameters which depend greatly on other parameters

like surface air temperature and evaporation. These parameters play a major role in governing small and large scale weather activities in any area and a small change in them can trigger repercussions on a much larger scale. As such it becomes extremely important to analyze closely the effects of SRM on our climate before implementing it in reality. The data for five important and interdependent variables: cloud area fraction, total precipitation, precipitable water, evaporation and surface air temperature was studied exhaustively for nine models namely BNU-ESM, CCSM4, CanESM, CAM5.1, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CMSA-LR, MIROC-ESM and MPI-ESM-LR, for a period of 50 years and the graphical results for the changes in these parameters was plotted using NCAR Command Language (NCL). The results obtained from these plots were indicative of the fact that cloud area fraction and precipitation, particularly over the Indian Subcontinent, are indeed highly model sensitive parameters, where a small change in the solar radiation caused changes as high as 30% in these parameters. With the given uncertainty in the simulated parameters, it becomes crucial to have more robust modeling before implementing any decision, particularly for a country like India where the economy is largely driven by monsoon dependent agriculture and even a small change in the climate can affect severely the livelihood of millions of people. Therefore any decision, big or small, must be pondered upon carefully, to analyze the risks and the benefits being derived from it, before implementing it on a local, regional or global scale.

## P-3301-02

# Climate Engineering Research Trends – Results from an Expert Survey

K. Beyerl (1); T. Wiertz, (1)

(1) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Potsdam, Germany

As international climate change mitigation efforts are progressing relatively slowly, climate engineering (CE) has been controversially discussed for several years now and often viewed with scepticism. In August 2014, the so far largest transdisciplinary conference on climate engineering CEIC14 took place in Berlin, and assembled over 350 participants from 40 countries who discussed a multitude of questions associated with technical interventions in the climate system. More than one third of this expert group participated in a subsequent online survey about future research trends in CE. The presentation will summarize the outcomes of this survey and thereby give an overview of the current state and diversity of the CE debate, motivations to engage with the topic and expected future research trends. Some general results are summarized below. In the talk, the data will be presented in more detail and with regard to specific sample subgroups and technologies as each technological approach raises specific challenges.

1. Working backgrounds, motivations, hopes and concerns with regard to CE research. The vast majority of respondents named countries in Europe or North America to be their country of origin and current office location. Despite the global relevance of the topic and various attempts to increase geographic representation, scientific expertise and awareness remains very much centred in the Global North. Academic backgrounds of people working on CE cover various aspects of natural science, as well as social sciences and humanities. Social scientists seem to work more broadly on the concept of CE, whereas natural scientists focus more on specific technologies. Motivations to engage with CE are manifold, such as 1) concern about climate change and pessimism about mitigation activities, 2) a search for options to counter climate change, 3) concern about CE consequences, 4) scientific interest in the topic reaching from modelling and impact assessment to governance and policy implications, philosophical questions of decision making, to reach a robust scientific footing for climate change. Through the survey, participants highlighted concerns about various risks of CE technologies.

2. Expected trends in CE research. Despite the widely shared opinion that methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (CDR) would be safer and should be researched, many of the conference participants seem to expect a CDR will be a major rate management (SRM) in the future although they see many risks associated with SRM-techniques. Technologies that should be researched most according to the participants were for CDR: (Bioenergy with) Carbon Capture and Storage, and Direct Air Capture; and for SRM: Stratospheric Aerosol
Injections and Marine Cloud Brightening. CDR techniques are seen as currently not effective enough, too slow and too expensive. Asked for which aspects of research should get more attention, answers differed for CDR and SRM in the way that for CDR participants identified technical research and development and economics among the main aspects: for SRM, climate effects, governance and ethics where highlighted: environmental effects and impact assessment scored high for both approaches.

### 3. Opinions about Field Research and Governance.
Whereas several participants were in favour of no field research at all, others expected field tests for CDR and/or SRM. However, the focus of research differed: For CDR, field tests were mainly suggested to test feasibility, efficiency, safety, impacts, solutions for carbon storage and recycling. For SRM, the main questions were related to atmospheric uptake, or storing thermal energy in the deep ocean. However, increased vertical transport of water has the capacity to drastically alter the ocean thermocline. To help bound the potential consequences of these activities, we perform a set of simulations involving idealised disruption of the ocean thermocline by greatly increasing vertical mixing in the upper ocean. We use an Earth System Model (ESM) to evaluate the likely thermal and hydrological response of the atmosphere to this scenario. In our model, increased vertical transport in the upper ocean decreases upward shortwave and longwave radiation from the atmosphere due primarily to loss of clouds' and sea-ice over the ocean. This extreme scenario causes an effective radiative forcing of ≈15.5-15.9 W m⁻², with simulations behaving on multi-decadal time scales as if they are approaching an equilibrium temperature ≈8.6-8.8°C higher than controls. Within a century, this produces higher global mean surface temperatures than would have occurred in the absence of increased vertical ocean transport. In our simulations, disruption of the thermocline strongly cools the lower atmosphere over the ocean, resulting in high pressure anomalies. The greater land-sea pressure contrast is found to increase water vapour transport from ocean to land in the lower atmosphere and therefore increase global mean precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) over land; however, many high latitude regions and some low latitude regions experience decreased P-E. Any real implementation of ocean pipe technologies would damage the thermal structure of the ocean to a lesser extent than simulated here; nevertheless, our simulations indicate the likely sign and character of unintended atmospheric consequences of such ocean technologies. Prolonged application of ocean pipe technologies, rather than avoiding global warming, could exacerbate long-term warming of the climate system.

On a general note, most survey participants hope that CE won't be necessary at all and emphasized that climate change mitigation should be heavily intensified.

## P-3301-03

### Geoen engineering, Preferred Climate States, and Climate Policy in the Anthropocene

**J. Horton (1)**

(1) Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA, United States of America

Many social, ethical, political, environmental, and other objectives to geoen engineering have been raised since the taboo on public discussion was broken a decade ago. One of the key criticisms, though often unasted, is focused on the fact that geoen engineering would necessarily entail making conscious, deliberate decisions about desired climate states. These states might be implicit or explicit, and might be defined in terms of temperature, radiative forcing, rate of change, atmospheric concentration, or some other metric, but choosing to intervene in the climate system is inextricably linked to choosing what the climate ought to be. This feature of geoen engineering has been criticized on the grounds that it is arrogant, hubristic, unnatural, corrupt, and/or unwise. There may be merit in such criticisms, yet this line of argument overlooks the reality that, in the Anthropocene epoch, any climate policy is unavoidably premised on a preferred climate state. Mitigation rests inherently on targets, whether general (climate stability, preindustrial, Holocene) or specific (°C, ppm, GtC). From a philosophical point of view, any such target is ultimately arbitrary, in the sense that nature does not endorse one goal over another. The same is true of adaptation. Every potential climate state entails some combination of winners and losers (human and non-human), and the ethical dilemmas that this presents cannot be avoided simply by excluding geoen engineering as climate policy option. The mere existence of making decisions about preferred climate states is an insufficient and unsound basis for objecting to geoen engineering, and only serves to obscure the tough choices about future climate that must be made whether or not geoen engineering is on the policy agenda.

## P-3301-04

### Geoen engineering: Existing State Specific Laws and impacts upon Human Health, the Eco-system & Economics

**AM. Hunter (1)**

(1) Hunter Consulting, Legal, Phoenix, Arizona, United States of America

An overview, examples of and analysis thereof of currently in effect state statutes on air pollution and how any proposed geoen engineering, solar radiation management and/or climate intervention plans or programs would have

a legal impact and effect upon associated risks such as human health, the Eco-system and state economies.

## P-3301-05

### Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline by ocean pipe technologies

**K. Lester (1); K. Ricke (1); K. Caldeira (1)**

(1) Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America

Technologies utilising vertical ocean pipes have been proposed as a means to avoid global warming, either by providing a source of clean energy, increasing ocean carbon uptake, or storing thermal energy in the deep ocean. However, increased vertical transport of water has the capacity to drastically alter the ocean thermocline. To help bound the potential consequences of these activities, we perform a set of simulations involving idealised disruption of the ocean thermocline by greatly increasing vertical mixing in the upper ocean. We use an Earth System Model (ESM) to evaluate the likely thermal and hydrological response of the atmosphere to this scenario. In our model, increased vertical transport in the upper ocean decreases upward shortwave and longwave radiation from the atmosphere due primarily to loss of clouds' and sea-ice over the ocean. This extreme scenario causes an effective radiative forcing of ≈15.5-15.9 W m⁻², with simulations behaving on multi-decadal time scales as if they are approaching an equilibrium temperature ≈8.6-8.8°C higher than controls. Within a century, this produces higher global mean surface temperatures than would have occurred in the absence of increased vertical ocean transport. In our simulations, disruption of the thermocline strongly cools the lower atmosphere over the ocean, resulting in high pressure anomalies. The greater land-sea pressure contrast is found to increase water vapour transport from ocean to land in the lower atmosphere and therefore increase global mean precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) over land; however, many high latitude regions and some low latitude regions experience decreased P-E. Any real implementation of ocean pipe technologies would damage the thermal structure of the ocean to a lesser extent than simulated here; nevertheless, our simulations indicate the likely sign and character of unintended atmospheric consequences of such ocean technologies. Prolonged application of ocean pipe technologies, rather than avoiding global warming, could exacerbate long-term warming of the climate system.

## P-3301-06

### Perspectives of Climate Engineering Adoption in Africa: Analogies from International Environmental Agreements, Conventions and Treaties

**C. Ngonzo Luwesi (1); AA. Rose (2)**

(1) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenya Forest Service, Climate change response programme, Nairobi, Kenya

Global warming is steadily threatening ecosystems and their biological lives across the globe. Though life in the equatorial and tropical regions is associated with hot temperatures rather than cooling, the drastic decrease of forest cover and major vegetations in the last century may be an argument for adoption of the principle of large-scale Climate Engineering (CE). Whether through Solar Radiation Management (SRM) or through Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), this strategy might only be acceptable as a «plan B» to climate mitigation and adaptation. CE research and technology may be scaled up to supplement African governments' efforts to reduce planned greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and avoid suicidal climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. These schemes are cheap and effective climate «mitigation» options but may be dangerous, the safest options being expensive or simply useless. Besides, most of the countries in the African continent do not have the ability to invest in what are considered as “harebrained schemes, which impacts are yet to be ascertained”. Hence, African countries will recourse to several principles found in the UNCCD, UNCBD and UNFCCC treaties and conventions, the REDD+ agreement, and the 1997 UN Convention on International
Watercourses to elicit their position vis-à-vis CE research and deployment. This paper focuses on the Intra- versus interintergalenic equity and sustainability of the CE technology, the precautionary principle, the moral hazard principle linked to mitigation efforts and the binding principles of no-harm and compensatory damages. It simulates analog responses to CE research and deployment adoption based on the practice of international law in Africa.

P-3301-07

Simulating the potential impacts of refor-
restation on extreme rainfall over West
Africa in future

RC. Odoulami (1) ; A. Babatunde (1) ; AE. Ajayi (2)
(1) University of Cape Town (UCT), Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) - Dept. of Environmental and Geographical Science (EGS) - Cape Town, South Africa (2) Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA), Department of agricultural engineering, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Government of

This study investigates the impacts of reforestation on characteristics of extreme rainfall over West Africa, with a focus on the widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) in Savannah, under the RCP 4.5 future climate scenario. For the study, the regionwide climate models (RCHs: RegCM4 and WRF version 3.5), for with global climate models simulations (HadGEM2 and ECHAM6 respectively), were applied to reproduce the present-day climate (PRS), and to project the future climate (2031-2064) with and without large-scale reforestation (SALF (FUT and REF, respectively). To validate models, we compare the PRS simulations with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) observation datasets. To examine the impacts of reforestation, on future extreme rainfall events, we compare the FUT and REF simulations. The results show that, the two RCMs give credible simulations of extreme rainfall threshold (95th percentile of daily rainfall in the past climate) over West Africa. However, RegCM4 reports lower values over the Sahel and the Western Savannah, and both models simulate more WEREs than observation (TRMM) over Savannah. Both model project an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the Guinean coast and a decrease over the Savannah and Sahel in the future. However, they show that reforestation would increase the frequency of extreme events over the Savannah, but lowers it over the Guinean coast. Results from this study may guide decision makers on climate change mitigation and adaption options in West Africa.

P-3301-08

Public perceptions of climate engineering
and field test proposals in Japan

M. Sugiyama (1) ; S. Asayama (2) ; A. Ishii (3)
(1) The University of Tokyo, Policy Alternatives Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Tsukuba, Japan; (3) Tohoku University, Center for northeast asian studies, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan

There is a growing call for research on climate engineering, the deliberate intervention in the Earth's climate, particularly stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), one of the methods of so-called solar radiation management (SRM), given the presumed inadequacy of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a possibility of "climate emergency". Such a call for research on SAI includes proposals of conducting small-scale outdoor experiments or field tests in the natural environment with controlled emissions of aerosols.

However, there are strong disagreements and controversies among scientists whether and how such field tests should proceed, and importantly, based on which are mainly based on technical but social, political and ethical concerns. Advocates claim the urgent need for field tests due to concerns over "climate emergency" while critics worry about "moral hazard" caused by field tests and argue that once research was initiated, SAI would fall down a "slippery slope," eventually leading to its deployment. These concerns are relevant to broader public deliberation, and should not be confined only to debate among experts.

In this poster, we report the results of a recent online

survey with Japanese citizens (N = 3000), focusing mainly
on SAI field tests. Our survey design was intended to
elucidate the key social, political and ethical concerns of
the public regarding SAI. The respondents read a short
description of SAI and answered their opinions.

The survey results show a high rate of the "unsure"
or "don't know" (DK) responses about one-third of
the respondents chose DK response to the questions
regarding attitudes toward SAI. At least three reasons
can be considered as sources of DK response: first, lack
of knowledge and awareness of SAI, as nearly two-thirds
answered "neither heard of nor know at all SAI"; second,
little understanding of the provided information of SAI,
since about two-fifths of the respondents answered
"cannot understand so much" or "cannot understand at
all"; and third, the omission of middle option such as
"neither agree nor disagree" in our survey instrument,
since it might have caused those who have ambivalent or
ambiguous views on SAI to be difficult to answer, resulting
in a DK response. Thus, our survey results can be deemed
to show the public's undecided opinions on SAI.

Nevertheless, the respondents demonstrated discernible
attitudes toward SAI in some respects. First of all, a great
majority of the respondents clearly favor mitigation to
SAI, and think that considering SAI before pursuing all
efforts to reduce CO2 emissions is undesirable. In addition,
the respondents exhibited (conditional) support of SAI
research, but differentiated different modes of research.
They demonstrated preference of indoor research activities
such as computer simulations and lab work over outdoor
field tests. The support for the deployment was limited,
which is consistent with the findings of previous surveys.
The respondents also showed a relatively serious concern
over the risk of unpredictable side-effects of SAI and
political consequences of research, i.e. the possibility of
"slippery slope", although a majority of them thought that
the prospect of "moral hazard" is unlikely. Regarding the
governance issues on field tests, the respondents strongly
favor the public consultation before field tests, the open
disclosure of the results including negative information,
and the international regulation of field tests instead
of scientists' self-regulation. The respondents seem
to endorse the importance and significance of "Oxford
Principles" of climate engineering research governance.

In our survey we controlled the information of SAI and split the sample into one with and without the "climate emergency" frame. Previous research suggests that framing of information provided to the respondents (especially, environmental framing) may influence, and therefore bias the public perception of SAI, though the results of our survey did not yield such framing effects on respondents' attitudes toward SAI with any statistical significance. We thus have reported all the results, collapsing the two groups into one.

We believe our survey results can bring important and
non-Western perspectives into the wider public debate on
climate engineering.

P-3301-09

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Inter-
comparison Project (CDR-MIP)

N. Vaughan (1) ; D. Keller, (2) ; A. Lenton (3) ; V. Scott (4)
(1) University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) GEOMAR,
Helmholtz centre for ocean research, Kiel, Germany; (3)
CSIRO, Hobart, Australia; (4) University of Edinburgh, School
of geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Inadequate emissions reduction is resulting in increased attention on Climate Intervention (CI) - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget, or remove the primary greenhouse gas from the atmosphere - Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). The majority of future scenarios that do not exceed 2°C warming by 2100 include CDR methods. At present, there is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. In response, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) is proposed. This project aims to bring together a suite of Earth System Models (ESMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICS) in a common framework to explore the potential, risks, and challenges of different types
of proposed CDR. At present the proposed simulations for CDR-MIP include: Direct-air capture simulations, Afforestation and Ocean alkalisation as well as a modified Diagnostic, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiment. These experiments are designed to answer key questions related to quantifying efficacy, feedbacks, response time scales, and potential side effects of specific CDR methods, as well as questions

of climate "reversibility". Here we present details on the proposed experiments, and encourage feedback from the community on their design and implementation. It is anticipated that this will be the first stage of a continuing project exploring CDR, and as such we strongly encourage interested modeling groups to participate. CDR-MIP aims to commence in September 2015.

# 3302 - Key Energy Technologies for Low Carbon Pathways

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3302-01

#### The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF27 Study

E. Kriegler (1); V. Krey (2); J. Weyant (3)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) IIAASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (3) Director, Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), Stanford, CA, United States of America

Low-carbon technologies in the energy system have been identified as a key element in mitigating climate change. The relative importance of mitigation technologies depends not only on their techno-economic characteristics and how they develop in the future, but also on the competition with other energy technologies, the development of future energy demand and the climatepolicy architecture. Since all of these factors are interconnected and surrounded by large uncertainty, it is important to investigate technology strategies from a system perspective and under a variety of assumptions.

This presentation gives an overview of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter- comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of the energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppmCO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.

### K-3302-02

#### Innovation in Renewable Energies and their contribution to combat climate change

P. Frankl (1)

(1) IEA, France

Not communicated.

### K-3302-03

#### Is nuclear energy part of the solution?

V. Faudon (1)

(1) Société Française d'Energie Nucléaire, Paris, France

At least 80% of the world's electricity must be low- carbon by 2050 to keep the world within 2°C of warming,

according to the IPCC. This is a massive global challenge that requires the use of all available low-carbon energy technologies. Nuclear energy is recognized by the IPCC as "an effective greenhouse gas mitigation option" with life cycle emissions "comparable to most renewables".

We need to take immediate steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as the world has already used up most of its carbon budget. Nuclear energy is low-carbon, available and competitive in the timeframe required. It has avoided the release of 56 gigatons of CO2 since 1971, two years' worth of emissions at current rates. Additional nuclear energy capacity can be built up in the world's largest emitting countries; there are more reactors under construction today than at any time in the last 25 years, with BRICS countries leading the way[i]. Existing nuclear power plants are the largest low- carbon electricity source in OECD countries. Operating them for longer is one of the most effective ways to keep greenhouse gas emissions down. Moreover, nuclear generation can operate with renewables energy in order to adapt generation to electricity demand, taking into account variability of certain renewable energy sources.

As countries are pursuing different energy policy goals, with different constraints, they should be free to choose from the full portfolio of energy technologies, including renewable energies and nuclear energy, to reduce CO2 and meet other energy objectives. Very few scenarios have been investigated with mitigation requirements to limit warming to 2C and implementation of a nuclear phase out. While they need the largest portfolio now, countries will also need the largest portfolio tomorrow: nuclear research should receive support to develop future reactors(generation 4) that will make better use of the Uranium resources, will operate in a safer way, and produce less waste. Renewable energies and Nuclear have to be considered together as part of the electricity mix on the low carbon pathways

## 3302-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3302-01

#### Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, the potential impact on microplankton of bottom water discharge at subsurface

M. Boye (1); M. Giraud (2); V. Garçon (3); M. Lejart (4); C. Avray (5); M. Boeuf (4); D. De La Broise (6)

(1) Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin, Plouzane, France; (2) IUEM-LEMAR, FEM, LEGOS, Brest, France; (3) LEGOS UMR5566, Toulouse, France; (4) France Energies Marines, Brest, France; (5) DCNS, Brest, France; (6) IUEM-LEMAR, Plouzane, France

Part of the solar energy can be harvested and used in different processes. Taking advantage of the natural temperature gradient between the surface and the deep ocean, the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) process achieves this goal. However, the artificial upwelling created by the release of deep water flowing off of an OTEC plant into the sub-surface layer (whose temperature and biogeochemical composition are quite different) could locally induce alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning. The anticipated effects on the microphytoplankton were studied on a scheduled pilot site off Martinique (Caribbean Sea), within the framework of the IMPALA project.

The biogeochemical processes that participate in the artificial upwelling were addressed by simulation of the discharge using in situ microcosm experiments immersed
for 6 days. Mixing of deep water with sub-surface waters was achieved at different depths (maximum of chlorophyll and bottom of the nutricline) and mixing rates (0%, 2% and 10% of bottom water). Analyses of pigments (HPLC), picophytoplankton abundance (flow cytometry), and nutriogens were performed in the microcosms and the surrounding waters to assess the natural variability of the phytoplankton assemblage and the potential shifts induced by rich deep water supply in a nutrient poor surface water.

Similar evolution over time of the phytoplankton communities was observed in the natural environment and in the microcosms without deep-water input, suggesting that microcosms can be used to assess the impact of bottom water discharge at sub-surface. The enrichment of sub-surface waters by 10% of deep seawater induced a significant shift in the phytoplankton assemblage towards the development of diatoms. This could have biogeochemical and ecological consequences since diatoms are major drivers of the biological carbon pump in the ocean.

P-3302-02

The potential of nuclear energy to mitigate climate change

FM. Breon (1); A. Berger (2); B. Brook, (3); P. Hansen, (4); F. Livet, (4); H. Nifenecker (5); M. Petit, (4); G. Pierre (6); H. Prevot, (4); S. Richet, (4); H. Safa, (7); M. Schneeberger, (4) (1) IPSL, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) Université Catholique de Louvain, Earth and life institute, Louvain la Neuve, Belgium; (3) University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; (4) Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France; (5) Sauvons le Climat, Vizille, France; (6) Bourgogne University, Dijon, France; (7) Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Direction de l'energie nucleaire, Gif sur Yvette, France

In the 2014 IPCC report, Working Group 3 discusses several scenarios that are consistent with RCP-2.6, with the objective of limiting the global mean surface temperature increase to less than 2 degrees. All these scenario rely on massive carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), at the ≈10 Gt C level while the few existing experiments are at the MtC level. It may appear unreasonable to assume that the geological, technology and cost requirements associated to CCS will be met.

We focus on the scenarios IMAGE, developed by the NEAA, Netherlands, and MESSAGE developed by IIASA, Austria. Both propose three sub-scenarios: (i) "Supply" that assumes a high energy consumption compliant with the needs of economic and social development. (ii) "Efficiency" which assumes a 45% smaller consumption, and (iii) "MIX" which is intermediate. All 6 scenarios assume a massive development of PhotoVoltaic (PV) energy together with a large increase of biomass. In the supply scenario, 7000 nuclear reactors are put in operation between 2060 and 2100. We suggest that in the urgency of climate change argue for such development as early as 2020.

We shall describe in detail the potential and limitations of such massive nuclear development. The technology for a massive nuclear development is much more mature than that of CCS, does not suffer from the intermittency limitations of PV and wind energy, and necessitates far less material extraction of the McKinsey Institute. It requires however the generalization of breeding reactors of which only a few units currently exist. The necessity for Plutonium availability requires a partial shift from Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) to CANDU-like reactors together with the development of fuel processing facilities.

A wide development of nuclear energy, at a pace comparable to its development in France during the 70s and 80s would allow the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration at a level compatible with RCP-2.6, while providing enough energy for a growing population and without the hypothetical massive development of CCS. It makes possible a near-total ban of coal use well before the end of the century.

P-3302-03

Analysis of substitution trade-offs among selected bioenergy pathways for different end-uses

S. Chigullapalli (1); AB. Rao (2); A. Patwardhan (3)

(1) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Climate Studies, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India; (2) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Ctera, Powai, Mumbai, India; (3) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Sjm som, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

The environmental concerns (local and global) as well as the depleting reserves of the conventional energy sources have forced us to seek fuel efficient alternatives for many of the traditional energy consumption approaches. Bioenergy is the traditional source of energy with renewed interest due to its carbon mitigation potential assuming CO2 neutrality, need for diversification of energy sources and the renewable nature of feedstocks. A bioenergy system or bioenergy chain / route consist of a series of conversion steps by which raw biomass feedstock is transformed into a final energy product (heat, electricity, or transport biofuel). There are many bioenergy chains as a result of the wide range of raw biomass feedstocks (wood, grass, oil, starch, fat, etc.), broad spectrum of conversion technologies and a variety of possible end-uses.

Bioenergy alternatives offer significant carbon mitigation potential (CMP), provided that the resources are utilized sustainably and that efficient bioenergy systems are used. Certain current systems and key future options including use of biomass residues and wastes and advanced conversion systems are able to deliver 80 - 90% emission reductions compared to the fossil energy baseline (IPCC, 2012).

The CMP associated with specific bioenergy options depend on intrinsic factors such as design of the bioenergy system and extrinsic factors such as source of biomass and fossil fuels they are replacing. Many bioenergy pathways can be used to convert a range of raw biomass feedstock into a final energy product. The choices we make today will affect the amount of GHGs we put in the atmosphere in the near future and for years to come.

In order to assess and compare the economic and environmental sustainability of modern bioenergy systems, there is a need for comprehensive assessment of each bioenergy pathway for cataloguing attributes of various proposed bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies. This article analyzes the substitution trade-offs among selected bioenergy pathways for different end-uses.

P-3302-04

The hydrogen economy: a failed concept or the future for our energy system?

P. Dodds (1)

(1) University College London, UCL Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom

Hydrogen has been proposed since the 1970s as a clean alternative to carbon-based fuels, particularly for the transport sector. This paper examines recent developments in the use of hydrogen in transport, heat provision and energy storage, and considers policy initiatives that are designed to introduce hydrogen-powered technologies into existing energy systems.

After much hype in the early 2000's, a perceived lack of progress led many to deem fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) a failure; research programmes were cut and attention switched to battery vehicles, encompassed within a broader view of predominantly electrically-powered energy systems. Yet many automotive manufacturers have continued developing FCVs, particularly in Asia, and have pushed in recent years for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles to have an important role in the future, for example through the publication of the McKinsey Institute's "Power-trains" study [1]. It has had a significant impact, with government-industry H2Mobility programmes set up in several European countries to facilitate the introduction of FCVs. When combined with the recent launch of the first commercial FCV in Korea, and the unexpectedly poor sales of battery vehicles, it appears that FCVs will soon appear in many countries.

Another potential use of hydrogen that has received little attention is to decarbonise heat provision, particularly in those countries using natural gas combusted in boilers. Natural gas is difficult and expensive to decarbonise because the emissions cannot be captured and alternative technologies (for example, electrically-powered heat pumps) are much more expensive to buy and operate,
take more space within houses and provide an inferior customer experience. Hydrogen, on the other hand, uses a similar boiler and is carbon-free. We have examined the potential for hydrogen to be supplied to homes using existing gas network infrastructure, which would greatly reduce the cost of a heat transition and would avoid such infrastructures becoming stranded assets. We have identified the circumstances in which hydrogen could replace 20-100% of existing gas heating.

A third use for hydrogen is to support low-carbon electricity generation. Power-to-gas uses excess renewable generation to produce hydrogen that is injected into existing gas networks to partially decarbonise the gas supply, so acting as a form of energy storage. Such systems are already been tested in Germany. We have assessed the value of power-to-gas to support wind generation in the UK, compared to other novel energy storage technology options.

The "Hydrogen's Value in the Energy System" project has been assessing the value of hydrogen in all of these markets. Hydrogen is unusual as it is a zero-carbon alternative energy carrier to electricity. Our techno-economic energy system models have shown that the trade-offs between using electricity and hydrogen depend on the relative generation and fuel cell technology costs. These are currently unable to compete economically with incumbent energy technologies, but could do so in the future if further cost reductions are achieved [2]. One obstacle to government support for these technologies is the perception that while hydrogen is zero-carbon, the processes that produce hydrogen lead to CO2 emissions that are incompatible with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The lack of a UK definition of "green" hydrogen is a particular obstacle to policy support. We will conclude with an overview of how such a standard could be defined.

Innovation theory has shown that most novel technologies require support in the early stages of commercialisation in order to develop supply chains and reduce manufacturing costs through "learning by doing". Most hydrogen production and fuel cell technology costs are currently unable to compete economically with incumbent energy technologies, but could do so in the future if further cost reductions are achieved [2]. One obstacle to government support for these technologies is the perception that while hydrogen is zero-carbon, the processes that produce hydrogen lead to CO2 emissions that are incompatible with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The lack of a UK definition of "green" hydrogen is a particular obstacle to policy support. We will conclude with an overview of how such a standard could be defined.

[1] Coalition study (2010). A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis.

[2] Anandarajah et al (2013) Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios.

P-3302-05

Renewable Technologies in Karnataka: Jobs Potential and Co-benefits

R. Kattumuri (1)

(1) Grantham Research Institute & India Observatory, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom

Green technologies provide an essential starting point towards transformation for resource efficiency and a more socially inclusive low-carbon economy. As their share in the economy increases, it can hasten the required transition towards a low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions development-path in a cost-efficient manner (UNFCCC, 2011). Beyond making the case for early climate change mitigation policy through the development and deployment of green technology, an assessment of co-benefits emphasises the potential of integrating climate change mitigation policies with other socio-economic targets such as improved health and social inclusion (Stern, Kattumuri and Rydge, 2012). Thus there are great opportunities and benefits to investigate, invest for innovation and development of green technologies in emerging economies.

This study, based on empirical study of examples of off-grid solar, wind energy and a few household sources of energy in Karnataka state in India, assesses the key opportunities and challenges presented by the transition to low-carbon and fuel cell technology for both the creation of green jobs and the co-benefits arising from the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies in the state. In line with UNEP's recognition that the "greening of economies has the potential to be a new engine of growth" (2011:16) we find that a green economy may provide the necessary stimulus for a more socially inclusive development path (ADB, 2013) where co-

benefits are crucial. Our research is the first of its kind in India. It is based on primary data from households, private companies and NGOs based in Karnataka, derives estimates for jobs potential using local employment factors in Karnataka and shows strong evidence of opportunities for jobs potential.

The main objectives of the study are:

1. Identify specific renewable technologies being developed and deployed in Karnataka

2. Review the potential for green jobs in some renewable energy sectors through quantitative analyses of case studies

3. Analyse the potential co-benefits of these renewable technologies

4. Discuss the scope of these renewable technologies and further activities that could enable sustainable and inclusive development and contribute its share to national greening economy targets.

Our analysis highlights the ways in which the development and deployment of green technologies facilitate reductions in inequality through social co-benefits that are necessary for transformation at the economic and social levels, in addition to the environmental co-benefits that drive this transition. The analyses based on the state of Karnataka can provide learnings for other states in India and elsewhere.

P-3302-06

The learning curve for wind energy in China: Lessons for climate finance

Y. Liu (1)

(1) Ecole Polytechnique, Department of Economics, Palaiseau, France

Reducing greenhouse gases emissions is a two-way street that bridges finance and technology. The key issue of global climate finance is to unlock and scale up additional and predictable capital. Meanwhile, promoting renewable energy is a distinct part of the global climate regime. It is then natural to ask how climate finance interlinks with technology policy to achieve long-term environmental and energy targets.

The theory of the learning curve suggests that the cost of renewable technology falls along with knowledge accumulation based on learning-by-doing and research and development (R&D). Understanding the drivers of this endogenous technological change has important climate policy implications in two aspects. First, the optimal abatement path may vary depending on the channels of technology cost reduction. The existing literature concludes that when knowledge is gained through R&D investments, some abatement is shifted from the present to the future, but if the channel for knowledge-growth is learning-by-doing, the impact on the timing of abatement is analytically ambiguous (Goulder and Mathai 2000). Second, governments need to investigate how, if at all, climate finance can be structured in a way to provide investment subsidy necessary to make renewable energy deployment competitive with an incumbent technology.

In this study, we first assess the learning rate of China's wind energy by considering two sources of learning effect - cumulative installed capacity and technology efficiency improvement. Then, we extend the learning curve model to investigate the amount of additional capital subsidies needed to achieve grid parity of wind electricity and the distribution of this learning investment, depending on three factors - learning rate, cost target, and deployment speed. Finally, we estimate the implicit abatement cost accordingly.

Our contribution is mainly two-fold. First, we contribute to the learning rate estimates with an empirical analysis of wind energy in China. Ek and Soderholm (2013) and Del Rio and Taranton (2012) provide a literature review on the learning rates of wind energy. Overall, the exiting literature provides few uniform conclusions. A doubling of the cumulative wind power capacity could induce cost reduction from 33% to 3%. All these studies are focused on industrialized countries. To our knowledge, only one study estimates the learning rate of wind energy in china, using the bidding electricity prices of national wind project