in the past climate, present and future, with combination of emission scenarios, climate models and downscaling methods to achieve a spatial resolution consistent with the decisions of farmers and foresters to adapt production and the corresponding economic sectors. Several crop and forest models should also be used in order to take into account the uncertainty related to the ability of impact models to reproduce all the processes. Such a portfolio of services requires calculations in the past climate, present and future, with the combination of emission scenarios, climate models and downscaling methods to achieve a spatial resolution consistent with the decisions of the farmers and foresters to adapt production and related economic sectors. Several agricultural and forestry models should be proposed to represent the uncertainty due to the wide range of impact models, reproducing more or less processes. Finally, multi-criteria evaluation (economic, social, biotech) adaptation options will be made possible. This project is developed by INRA and partners (Irstea, BRGM, CEA, CNRS, Universities, Météo France, under the umbrella of Allenvi, the National Research Alliance for the Environment.

P-2224-04

The INRA metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC)

T. Caquet (1) ; N. Breda (2) ; JP. Amigues (3) ; C. Gascuel-Odoux (4) ; K. Chalvet-Monfran (5) ; P. Debaeke (6) ; JM. Touzard (7) ; JF. Soussana (8)

(1) INRA, Ul 1275 Forestry of forests, grasslands and freshwater systems division, Champenoux, France; (2) INRA, IRN 1137 INRA UL Forest Ecology and Ecosystemology, Champenoux, France; (3) INRA, SAE2, Toulouse, France; (4) INRA, 1069 inra-agrocampus ouest "soil, agro and hydrosystem-s", Rennes, France; (5) INRA, 343 animal epidemiology-epi-a, Saint Genes Champanelle, France;

(6) INRA, Umr 1248 inra-inpt agroecologies innovations ruralités - agir, Castanet Tolosan, France; (7) INRA, Montpellier, France; (8) INRA, Paris, France

The metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) has been launched by the French Institute of Agricultural Research in 2011. It aims at coordinating, promoting and integrating the research activities to overcome the scientific and societal barriers that could restrict adaptation. This proactive and pluridisciplinary strategy involves cooperation with French and foreign academic and socioprofessional actors. It should ensure rapid results and progress, for example in multi-criteria assessment of adaptation options. Favouring the dialogue between disciplines, AAFCC provides a framework for the various research projects on adaptation of agriculture and forests to climate change. Discipline-related skills in human and social sciences, agronomy, ecology, genetics, ecophysiology, animal sciences, economy and modelling are mobilised to cover the range of questions raised by adaptation to climate change. The chosen strategy focuses on integrated approaches at the sector or territorial level. The issues and general objectives of the programme can globally be ordered according to the increasing response times of the systems, from short- to long-term, and the intensity and 'active' nature of the adaptation: from palliative or support actions, to innovation and technical or collective organisational breakthroughs. Such breakthroughs require strong innovations and a thorough socio-economic assessment.

AAFCC is fully in line with the European Joint Programming Initiative on "Agriculture, food security and climate change", initiated to enhance coordination of national research programmes. Research projects address annual and perennial crops, livestock, forests, biodiversity or water and soil resources. AAFCC has also promoted training of young scientists through PhD grants and postdoctoral fellowships. Since 2011, AAFCC has supported more than 25 national research projects and international actions and networks. It supports various European-level initiatives through its 2011 call. It also supports international (for example cooperative projects with India or south Mediterranean countries) or global (for example ensemble crop modelling) projects. International actions increase the range of climate conditions and model species under investigation. Considering the issues at stake, international cooperation is undoubtedly, along with pluridisciplinarity, the most important issue in this domain. This is the reason why AAFCC supports various European-level initiatives and international or global

projects in addition to national projects. The general objectives of AAFCC and its main achievements are presented and discussed.

P-2224-05

Adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change in the tropical Andes

O. Dangles (1) ; C. Carpio (2)

(1) IRD, Quito, Ecuador; (2) ESPOCH, Cedeterra, RIOBAMBA, Ecuador

In recent years, the precarious state of food production systems has become a focus of attention of scientists, policy bodies, and corporations face to a growing number of challenges including uncertainties and risks associated with climate change, unprecedented price hikes for basic food, and agricultural intensification. In the tropical Andes, climate and habitat changes are considered to be one of the most serious threats to sustainable development, with adverse impacts expected on the environment, human health, economic activity and food security. Over the last decade, the Andes have also experience socio-economic and institutional changes that have increased the pressure on natural resources, weakening the internal social organization and caused cultural erosion in the Andean society, reducing the capacities of populations to overcome them.

Global climate change represents a major threat to sustainable farming in the tropical Andes. Farmers have used local ecological knowledge and intricate production systems to cope, adapt and reorganize to meet climate uncertainty and risk, which have always been a fact of life. Those traditional systems are generally highly resilient, but the predicted effects, rates and variability of climate change may push them beyond their range of adaptability.

This presentation summarizes 10 years of studies performed by our group within a transdisciplinary (from social sciences to ecological sciences to earth sciences) and multi-methodology frameworks (from landscape surveys by drones to agent based modeling to participatory research). It examines the extent of actual and potential impacts of climate variability and change on small-scale farmers and describes how climate change impacts agriculture through two main study case: 1) the consequences of degradation and changes in hydrology on biodiversity and land users in high altitude pastures (bofedales) of Bolivia (see www.bihaww.fr) and 2) the effect of temperature variability on the control of pest and disease populations in crop landscapes of Ecuador (see www.manpest.irrd.fr).

The presentation highlights some promising adaptive strategies currently in use by or possible for producers, rural communities and local institutions to mitigate climate change effects while preserving the livelihoods and environmental and social sustainability of the region. In particular, it presents how the concept of adaptive management, «a systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of previously employed policies and practices», may provide mechanisms to adjust to change and uncertainty related to climate change.

P-2224-06

Farm level adaptation to drought: the case of maize production in Shanxi province, China

K. De Bruin (1) ; S. Glomsrød (1) ; T. Wei (1)

(1) CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Climate economics, Oslo, Norway

Changes in temperature and precipitation will impact food production across the global. The latest IPCC AR5 WG1 assessment report states that although there is low confidence in global-scale observed trends in drought, there are regional changes, such as the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon which in turn has led to increasing drought in northern China. Shanxi province, located in the north of China, is one of the most vulnerable provinces to be impacted by drought, especially impacting maize production.

Within the research programme on climate change and
Chinese agriculture we assess the impacts and costs to agriculture associated with expected change in risk of extreme events on maize production in Shanxi province. We investigate how local adaptation to climate change through the implementation of adaptation options reduces the vulnerability of farmers. Uncertainty about the extent of the impact of climate change on drought risk calls for flexibility regarding the implementation of adaptation options. Where one should avoid over-investment in case damages in the near future than expected while at the same time facilitating proportionate adaptation if damages become higher than expected.

The objective of the paper is to show how drought risk affects the decision to invest in adaptation options. We conduct an extended cost-benefit analysis to address adaptation challenges of farmers in Shanxi province by simulating farmer's investment decisions on resources allocation and adaptation options under uncertain climate change impacts in order to maximize income and reduce the impact of an extreme event on crop production. The costs and benefits of three different adaptation options are considered, namely the implementation of drip irrigation, change of crop variety, and change of crop. Our case study of adaptation at the farm level in Shanxi province provides insights into the nexus between economic decision-making, climate change and adaptation in the agricultural sector.

P-2224-07

Increasing within-field diversity to foster
agro-ecosystem services and cope with
climate change

J. Enjalbert (1) ; X. Le Roux (2) ; V. Allard (3) ; B. Andrieu (4) ; S. Barot (5) ; J. Borg (6) ; D. Descoureaux (7) ; C. De Vallavielle-Pope (4) ; A. Gauffreau (4) ; I. Goldringer (9) ; S. Lemaïre (8) ; S. Saint-Jean (4) ; T. Wheatatamix Consortium (6) ; E. Porcher (9)

(1) INRA, Plant Breeding, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) INRA, Ea, Lyon, France; (3) INRA, Bap, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (4) INRA, Grignon, France; (5) IRD, Paris, France; (6) INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France; (7) Chambre d'agriculture du Loir-et-Cher, Blois, France; (8) INRA, Grenoble, France; (9) MNHN, Paris, France

During the 20th century, agriculture experienced major gains in productivity via homogenization and intensive use of inputs. This model is jeopardized by the awareness of rapid global change, in particular climate change, and the need for greater agricultural sustainability. Crop genetic diversity should play an essential role in this context, as it could promote various ecosystem services essential for adaptation to climate change. Increasing within field diversity through the use of cultivar mixtures is a timely option, testified by with some significant "success stories" in the past. Despite the abundant bibliography demonstrating the interest of intra-specific crop diversity, cultivar mixtures are poorly developed worldwide. In this context, the WHEATAMIX project studies the interest of mixing wheat genotypes to reinforce the sustainability and resilience of agricultural production and the provision of various ecosystem services. Based on a highly multidisciplinary approach we analyze the interactions among genotypes and with the environment, to develop new methods for breeding and/or combining wheat varieties to obtain performing blends in a global change context. Complementary experimental approaches are being deployed: i) a main diversity experiment (Eighty-eight wheat plots with 1, 2, 4 or 8 varieties, under low input to quantify over several years the variety diversity effects on ecosystem services; ii) replicates of the same diversity experiment in 4 sites across France, to test the robustness of wheat diversity effects under a wide range of soil and climate conditions; iii) a network of 50 farms, encompassing agro-climatic variability in the Paris basin, to compare the ecological and techno-economic performance of blends with that of monocultures, using direct links with key stakeholders. The first results provide a comprehensive characterization of the multiple ecosystem services provided by genetic diversity (yield stability; regulation of foliar diseases; insect pest and weed biocontrol; maintenance of soil fertility; biodiversity conservation), and the trade-offs and synergies that exist among ecosystem services. The result also guide the selection of variety mixtures and corresponding bundles of functional traits that can deliver particular groups of services to tackle the climate change issue.

P-2224-08

Assessing the determinants of alternative
adaptation strategies at farm level: the
case of wine growers in South-East France

N. Graveline (1) ; M. Grémont (1)

(1) BRGM, Environment, Water & Ecotechnologies,
Montpellier, France

Climate change is expected to have a double effect on water resources, directly, by potentially reducing the recharge of water resources and, indirectly, through an increase of water demands and uptakes, mainly through irrigated farming. Understanding the relative leading farmers to adapt to climate change is thus a major challenge for water management because one of the strategies to adapt to increasing crop water requirement is irrigation. This will induce new water demands, thus understanding the determinants of irrigation choice is a challenge for robust water planification both in terms of water conveyance infrastructure impacts on water resources. It is also a central issue for agricultural economics and policy. One of our main assumptions to this analysis is to state that climate change is just one of the multiple changes farmers are facing together with regulatory changes (right to irrigate on a regular basis since 2006), economic changes linked to the changes in consumers demand and wine market in general, and technical changes. Adaptation must be seen as a response to all the perceived changes and not to a particular one, apriori. Also, adaptation has always been at the core of farmer's experience.

In order to explore these questions, we concentrate on the case of wine growers in South-East France (Languedoc-Roussillon) where the context is changing: irrigation is authorized on a regular basis since 2006 only and a large water conveyance infrastructure is being constructed enabling for new water resources. We surveyed wine growers in Languedoc-Roussillon via a detailed Internet questionnaire sent to more than 3000 winegrowers to understand the determinants of agricultural practices and strategic choices (planting, structural size change, commercialization). The diffusion of the questionnaire was realized via the mail listings of professional organisms (Chambre d'agriculture, cooperatives...). We collected data on current and future practices relative to soil-plant water management, perceptions of past economic, regulatory, technical and climate changes and social and economic characteristics such as objectives that wine growers are pursuing with their activity (improving wine quality, preserving tradition, etc.). For all completed and validated survey variables characterizing the terroir are systematically associated to each farm: rain, temperature, soil water capacity, elevation.

A representative sample of 363 wine growers is used for a descriptive and econometric analysis. 50% of our sample is already irrigating wine while up to 28% is considering this option. When facing a climate change scenario by 2050, 57% of those not currently irrigating say they would implement irrigation. This illustrates the importance of anticipating future demand for water irrigation. We consider two main types of determinants and explore their relative contribution in explaining the adoption of water management practices at farm level. Terroir-like variables and socio-economic variables, including main objectives that vine growers are pursuing with their activity are explored as determinants. The results confirmed that both terroir and socio-economic determinants play a significant role in the implementation of adaptation actions among which irrigation. Perceptions of past changes are determinants of adaptations for instance perceptions of regulatory changes are determinants of existing irrigation whereas perception of climate change is a determinant of having the project to irrigate in the future. Results suggest that having its own cellar (wine transformation), increasing its size, being part of professional networks, producing wine of good quality and developing commercial strategies are determinants of resilient farms.
Combining crop physiology, breeding, socioeconomics and modelling to the targeting of genotypes to "wheat hotspots" in Mexico

J. Hellin (1) ; G. Molero (2) ; P. Alderman (2) ; K. Sonder (1)
(1) International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Socio-economics program, Mexico, Mexico; (2) International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Global wheat program, Mexico, Mexico

Climate change is a global problem but its potential effects on crop production, as well as appropriate adaptation strategies and stakeholders' adaptive capacity, will differ between region. Mexican agricultural systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change with models projecting a reduction in national productivity of almost 30%. The main cereal crops such as wheat and maize will be particularly affected. Research in Mexico's main wheat production area, the Yaxi Valley, has shown that an increase of minimum temperature by one degree in the crucial growing period reduces yields by 10%. In order to assist crop breeding programs to detect and target wheat genotypes, it is important to identify current and future agro-ecological zones for wheat production and in Mexico and, subsequently, appropriate wheat genotypes for these zones. Already established networks for multi-environments trial evaluations worldwide (such as the International Wheat Improvement Network (IWIN)) can be used to identify widely or specifically adapted wheat genotypes in order to recommend which ones could have greater impact in different agro-ecological zones in Mexico. This is particularly relevant to rain-fed areas of Mexico where scarce information on genotype performance is available. To complement this approach, detailed studies on the same genotypes evaluated for physiological traits during different years can help to determine which specific traits confer to the genotypes an advantage under given environmental conditions.

We focus on appropriate climate adaptation strategies for wheat in rain-rain-fed areas in Mexico. We use a bio-economic variables model involving crop, spatial and economic models to identify "wheat hotspots" i.e. areas in Mexico which are particularly vulnerable to increased drought and heat stress. Drawing on data from international wheat trials at 25 sites worldwide, we identify wheat lines which could be released as varieties most suited to these predicted wheat hotspots. Additionally, combinations of crop simulation models together with geographic information systems (GIS) help us to understand spatial and temporal aspects related with Genotype-by-Environment (GxE) interaction and can be used to support geographic targeting of genotypes to environments. Wheat breeding and seed supply is dominated by the public sector. The socio-economic analysis focuses on the implications of our results for agricultural policies in Mexico to ensure that farmers have access to seed of locally adapted wheat genotypes. Our cross-disciplinary approach that draws on plant physiology, crop breeding and socio-economics, provides a framework for policy-makers, researchers and development practitioner to identify where climate adaptation efforts should be directed. It is a framework that can be adapted to other regions and crops such as maize in sub-Saharan Africa.

Farming Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Events in Pacific Island Countries

V. Iese (1) ; J. Maeke (1) ; M. Wairiu (1)
(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji

Farmers in Pacific Islands' communities are considered to be most vulnerable to the impacts of increased temperature, sea-level rise, droughts, cyclones, and heavy rainfall. Farmers living on a raised atoll in the Solomon Islands (Bellona) were interviewed to understand their perceptions and experiences on the impacts of climate change and extreme events on their crops. Some examples of damage and impacts according to the farmers included robbing of roots, damage to leaves and branches, and destruction of fruits and valuable yields. Interviews also revealed that the

ability of farmers to recover after disasters was dependent on their pre-disaster conditions, number and varieties of crops they had planted, type of cropping system in use, and consistent use of simple, traditional, and innovative adaptive techniques. Such techniques included crop rotation, change of planting and harvesting dates, and the planting of new resilient varieties.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change-assessing adaptive decision-making of Indian farmers

C. Jha (1)
(1) National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Economics, Mumbai, India

Global climate change threatens natural and human systems and is expected to cause food insecurity, rural poverty, malnutrition and dreadful environmental conditions, especially for developing countries like India. Agriculture being the primary economic activity of developing countries, linkages between climate and agriculture are expected to be more prominent and vulnerable to erratic disturbances in near future. In this respect, adaptation is considered as a sustained approach to adjust agricultural system to changing climatic conditions. Agricultural adaptation involves local adjustments to climate variations and helps in reducing the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem to climate variations and extremes and ensures long-term resilience to future climatic turbulences.

Farmers being the key actors in agricultural sector; assessment of farmers' decision making, their willingness to adapt, adaptive capacity and the likely responses to climate change and the local determinants of climate management. The critical question underlying farmer's responses is how do farmers decide when and how to adapt and what determines their ability to adapt. Farmers usually choose from a set of adaptation strategies such as crop diversification, crop switching, altering area under cultivation, managing crop sowing and harvest timings, increased irrigation and soil and water conservation techniques, best practices and their local agronomic conditions. Farmers' adaptation initially depends on their perception on changes in climatic conditions which are usually based on their past experiences of climate variability and extreme events and their future expectations of climate change which in turn is based on prevailing climate scenario. Although farmer's perception to climate change might be a necessary condition it is not a sufficient condition to adapt as adaptive responses of farmers are finally determined by their incentive and ability to adapt. Farmer's incentive to adapt is driven by their risk taking behavior and their expectations of earning sustained higher economic returns. Farmer's ability to adapt might defer in terms of managerial and entrepreneurial capacities and farmer's household and socio economic characteristics (Bryan et al., 2000; Nhemchena and Hassan, 2007; Deressa et al., 2008; Below et al., 2010; Falco and Veronesi, 2013). Farmer's in developing countries usually try to maximize their net returns subject to their socio economic constraints, access to information and credit availability. Farmer's decision making is often affected by complex set of socio-economic factors such as household size, age, gender, education level, off-farm income, farm size, access to extension services and credit availability etc. which are beyond farmer's control.

Against this background, this study tries to hypothesize the possible effects of key socio economic variables on farmer's ability to adapt and adaptive choices under differing local conditions for Bihar district in India. Agriculture serves to be the chief economic activity of Bihar which lies in the Indo-Gangetic plain of India and is divided into three agro-climatic zones based on soil characteristics, rainfall and temperature. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis of survey data on farmer's responses, the study finds that socio-economic factors are key determinants of farmer's adaptive capacity and adaptation decisions are outcome of interactions between these factors. Large household size can ease farm labor supply and assist in non-farm income. Also, educated farmers with large household size help in creation of intra-household social network which eases flow of information and helps in framing farmer's perception. Young and educated farmers are more ready to adopt new and advanced technology and also ensure usage of appropriate amount and quality of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and thus increasingly adopt soil and water
conservation plans with crop switching and mixed farming practices. The magnitude of effects of these interlinked factors is however difficult to assess as it depends on socio-cultural, economic and political status which varies across spatial and regional scales and are often complex in nature especially for developing countries. The results of the study can be helpful in assessing vulnerability of farmer's to climate change in developing countries and help in reducing barriers to climate change adaptation.

P-2224-12

## Vulnerability assessment of commercial & small scale farmers to flooding and its impact on biodiversity from 1940 to 2010 in the Duiwenhoks and Goukou catchments Western Cape, South Africa

Z. Jonas (1)

(1) South Africa National Biodiversity Institute, Climate Change BioAdaptation, Cape Town, South Africa

South Africa is a water scarce country and the resources are unevenly distributed across the country's landscape. The majority of the exploitable water is found in sparsely populated catchment areas. Demands in terms of quality and quantity of water differ across sectors, water users and ecological requirements. For the Western Cape for example, a strong seasonality and micro-regional differentiation determines the balance between availability of water and the demands from water users. As a result the pressures and the impacts associated with water use are diverse in composition and intensity and affect the resilience of the province's water resource situation and the potential for resource managed floods from 1940 to 2010. This has resulted to severe catchment degradation which compromises the delivery of ecosystem services that poor people depends on. The large parts of these wetlands are destroyed, and wetlands are good ecosystem services to prevent flooding and ensure good water quality. The major problem currently is the over-extraction of water for various activities within the catchments such as water for vineyard farms, dairy farming as well as other commercial developments. In Goukou the inappropriate development in the estuarine space is hindering the ability of estuaries to buffer the surrounding landscape against floods. Flow reduction is increasing mouth closure and thereby increasing the risk of floods. This study is aiming at conducting thorough vulnerability assessment of both catchment and develops flooding response measures, where we will look at the land management practises using the existing spatial developments plans and integrated development plans and others in order to assess who is hit the hardest by flooding for both commercial and small scale farmers. The vulnerability assessment data will be integrated with spatial data related to ecosystem service delivery and translated to the local level, based on catchment vulnerabilities and needs to inform local adaptation plans.

P-2224-13

## Influence of climate change on nitrogen-fixing bacteria and its use as bio-fertilizer for crop production

M. Karim (1)

(1) University of Dhaka, (and Global Young Academy), Microbiology, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Increasing rates of sea level rise in the mainland of the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal is thought to have one of the many effects of climate change and global warming afflicting developing countries of South Asia. Bangladesh, in particular has already been affected through land erosion and salinity intrusion in its broader coastline, and is expected to suffer further setback in the form of damage to infrastructures, crop failure, fisheries destruction and loss of biodiversity. The coastal area covers about 20% of Bangladesh and over 30% of the net cultivable areas. Such

a vast area is feared to be affected with varying degrees of salinity intrusion, with the consequent reduction of normal crop production. This study attempts to isolate and identify agriculturally-important microorganism (AIMO), Azotobacter spp which play a predominant role in maintaining soil arability by fixing atmospheric nitrogen. They are Gram-negative and aerobic soil bacteria which meet about 70% nitrogen demand in soil. In addition to nitrogen fixation, these bacteria are able to solubilize phosphates, produce plant growth hormones and vitamins. Overall, they are renewable, yet a cost-effective source of the major plant nutrient to supplement the nitrogen-containing chemical fertilizer. In the light of Rio+20 earth summit, it can be said that their effective use could ensure sustainable agriculture as they are economically profitable, socially responsible, and environmentally acceptable.

In order to understand how long these bacteria will remain proactive under the climate change effects, soil samples from rice fields were collected in order to isolate and identify Azotobacter spp based on microscopic, cultural and biochemical properties. Sixteen and four strains of Azotobacter spp were isolated from salinity-prone southwest coastal districts, and non-saline midland areas of Bangladesh respectively. Their survival response in selective media, Azotobacter broth, supplemented with varying concentrations of NaCl was studied. Isolates were found to adapt and grow even at 20% salt concentration indicating their phenomenal tolerance to withstand salt stress. As they continue to grow in medium devoid of nitrogen, understandably they fix nitrogen. Most of these isolates harbor single and one very large plasmid (≥50kb), as opposed to isolates recovered from non-saline zones. High salt tolerant, Azotobacter spp were then characterized for their drug resistance, and were tested to twenty six antimicrobial drugs, belonging to fifteen different antibiotic groups. Isolates from saline zones showed shear resistance of most of the drugs (estimated 94%), while the isolates from non-saline zones exhibited 39% resistance only. The presence of high molecular weight plasmid therefore is assumed to be correlated with the multidrug resistance pattern of the isolates. Genetic fingerprinting of the studied bacteria revealed that twenty isolates belonged to five different Azotobacter species. Overall, these salt-tolerant species have the ability to counteract salinity stress, yet fixing atmospheric nitrogen; therefore have the potential to be applied as bio-fertilizer in the coastal agriculture.

P-2224-14

## Reducing fungal infestations in growing groundnuts through biocontrol methods that can increase crop safety by decreasing Aflatoxin content

M. Kifle (1)

(1) UKZN, Plant Pathology, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is an important food crop in sub-Saharan Africa and also an important oilseed and food crop around the world. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, the consumption of peanut and peanut products is high because of their affordability and adaptability to a variety of culinary uses. Peanut consumption has been linked to the reduction of cardiovascular disease including coronary heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, malnutrition as well as cancer. However, peanut is highly susceptible to the growth of mycotoxigenic fungi and hence it is prone to aflatoxin contamination. Pre-harvest infection of groundnuts by Aspergillus spp. is of great food safety concern due to their ability to produce secondary mycotoxins, called aflatoxins. Aflatoxins cannot be readily removed from contaminated foods by detoxification. Members belongs to the genus Aspergillus which are most abundant in the tropics and as such, are major food spoilage agent in warm climates. Therefore, there is a need to develop biocontrol methods that will increase crop safety by preventing the infection of the groundnut seeds by these pathogens, and hence to stop the contamination of the seed by these toxins. Prior research in glasshouse trials suggests that this approach works and can increase yields by 50%, as a bonus.
# Sustainable Agriculture An ecosystem based approach for climate change adaptation for food security- a case study from an African Small island Developing State

## B. Lalljee (1)

(1) University of Mauritius, Agriculture and Food Science, Moka, Mauritius

Sustainable Agriculture as an ecosystem based approach for climate change adaptation for food security - case study from an African Small Island Developing State

Life including food security. The impacts of climate change are felt more by the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). SIDS are considered as special group of countries as per the United Nations, because their smallness and remoteness makes them more vulnerable to food insecurity issues, which are compounded by the adverse effects of climate change. Livelihoods and food security of small farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are seriously threatened by climate change and this is negatively impacting on agricultural production and productivity. Climate change is not limited only to increasing temperature, rainfall pattern, soil water availability, intensity and frequency of extreme events, but also encompasses overall perturbation of the ecosystem, all of which influence food production.

The ecosystem based adaptation (EBA) approach to food production and food security assumes greater importance in the SIDS, which have very fragile and unique ecosystems. The use of sustainable agricultural technologies represent one such EBA approach, and which includes measures such as mulching, minimum tillage, multiple cropping, use of soil conditioners such as compost, use of agroforestry systems, etc. Adaptation is not to be considered as a stop-action, but rather as a process. Adaptation of agriculture to climate change is adjustments of the agricultural system to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. The agricultural system has to undergo continuous changes.

This paper discusses the positive effects of a package of sustainable agriculture technologies, composed of mulching, minimum tillage and use of compost as plant nutrient sources, to food production. Three locally available mulches were investigated, namely banana leaves, coconut leaves and watermelons, at three different rates. Minimum tillage, use of compost, and reduced fertiliser application were the other components of the package. The package was tested and validated in farmers' fields in the island of Rodrigues of the Republic of Mauritius. The beneficial effects were increase in soil moisture, a more uniform and stable soil temperature, improvement in soil biodiversity, control of weeds and other pests, increase in the yields of maize and beans. Furthermore, soil health and fertility was enhanced, in terms of properties such as pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, water holding capacity, porosity, NPK levels, bacterial and fungal counts.

The project also included an important aspect of capacity building. Farmers were trained on compost making from agricultural and kitchen wastes, on the use of cover cropping, for soil moisture, for weed and pest control, minimum tillage (time and frequency), soil and water conservation measures, rainwater and runoff water harvesting. The training also included an understanding of the barriers to EBA, in particular the multiple functions and services of ecosystems, ecosystem goods and services, ecosystem evaluation, as well as a lack of strong policy drivers behind EBA to climate change issues.

A stakeholder participatory approach was used, with the farmers, community leaders, and NGOs being actively involved right from the problem analysis stage. The project data and information was collected together with the farmers, and at the end of the project, all stakeholders exhibited a strong positive sense of ownership of the results. The participants then served as ambassadors for the popularisation of this technology among their peers, and has now been adopted by over 90% of the farmers in the community. This approach has a very high potential for replication in other SIDS as well as in the region. The project was fulfilled by the European Union (EU)under the Decentralised Cooperation Programme (DCP)

Keywords: climate change adaptation, ecosystem based approach, mulches, tillage, compost, SIDS.

# Do agroecological practices decrease farmers' vulnerability to climate change? Insights from the Mediterranean wine industry in France and Australia

## AL. Lereboulet (1)

(1) Université Paris-Diderot, UMR Prodig, Paris, France

This research aimed to determine factors that impact farmers' vulnerability to climate change with a focus on Mediterranean viticulture, a crop particularly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions and increasingly exposed to water stress. Vulnerability was conceptualized here as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In particular, we have examined the role played by agroecological farming practices on farmers' sensitivity to recent climatic events and on their capacity to adapt to long term climate change. Agroecology can be defined as a set of practices that aim for sustainable productive systems in terms of environment (resource preservation, economy (income improvement) and society (rural development). Such practices are varied and context dependant, and generally include biodiversity preservation, increasing resource-use efficiency and limiting chemical use. We formulated the hypothesis that agroecological practices could be a generic driver to reduce vulnerability, but implemented differently according to socioeconomic, cultural and political contexts. We thus compared two regions with a similar Mediterranean climate, Roussillon in France and McLaren Vale in Australia, but with contrasting production backgrounds, and we tested whether agroecological practices had an impact on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, and to what extent their impact and implementation was dependent on the local context.

We used a mixed-methods approach combining analyses of discourse and of climate data. Between 2011 and 2013, we led 69 in-depth semi-structured interviews with producers and key regional stakeholders (37 in Roussillon, 32 in McLaren Vale). Interviews were designed to provide insights on the average value of the European Union and heatwaves in the last two decades, and how they perceived the future of their activity in a context of climate change. Interview results were confronted to climate data obtained from Perpignan (Roussillon) and Adelaide Airport (McLaren Vale) weather stations, and modeled for the future decades by ARPEGE-Météo France (Roussillon, SCRATCH10-RETIC V4 dataset, 8 km resolution) and CSIRO-Mk3.5 (McLaren Vale, 10 km resolution). Agroecological practices were evaluated as a gradient from those following organic and/or biodynamic principles, with (level 1) or without (level 2) official certification, those applying some principles according to their current objectives (agriculture raisonnée, or low-input agriculture) (level 3), to those applying little of these principles (levels 4 and 5).

We found that the use of agroecological practices was associated with a reduced vulnerability to climate change, through reduced sensitivity and increased adaptive capacity. Practices commonly implemented in the two vineyards studied were: the following of organic/biodynamic principles, the use of compost and tillage, the reduction or stop of herbicide use, and the use of alternative weed control such as sheep. Level 1 and level 2 producers showed a reduced sensitivity to extreme events from the last decade, such as the consecutively hot and dry summers between 2003 and 2009 in Roussillon, and the three heatwaves that hit McLaren Vale in 2008 and 2009. According to models used, such climatic conditions are likely to become the norm until the 2040's, and gain in frequency and magnitude during the second part of the 21st century. Those producers were also more personally involved in the development of their farm, which they tended to perceive as a component of a wider regional productive system. Their implication in transforming practices toward greater sustainability was associated with a long-term vision of regional development and with optimistic entrepreneurship, which often lacked among level 4 and 5 producers. Also, the close attention that levels 1 and 2 gave to their fields seemed to outgrow the fact that coping better with recent extreme events could minimize the motivation to envision climate change as a pressing issue. Despite the fact that agroecological practices tend to maximize the multifunctionality of the two areas studied, the practice was not widely valued by the European Union, their implementation appeared easier in the Australian than in the French region, due a limitative economic, cultural and legislative context in the latter.
P-2224-17

## Transhumant management in the context of climate variability in north east of benin

P. Lesse (1); J. Djentonin (2); I. Toko (3); M. Houinato (1)

(1) Faculty of Agronomics Sciences, Benin, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (2) Faculty of Agropy, Parakou, Benin; (3) University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

The W National Park and its surroundings are a privileged and concentration of the national herd where confront all the logical development of the transhumance. In a context where the Benin suffers directly from weather conditions less under control, it is essential to improve knowledge on transhumance, know the current rangeland management and coping techniques. To achieve these goals, 300 breeders were maintained according to the quantitative and qualitative method based on a questionnaire and processed using the Sphinx plus2 software. The results we found that the texts on transhumance are outdated, ambiguous and unknown key stakeholders. Drought, high winds, excessive heat, late and heavy rain are the major weather risks affecting animals. In response to the new climatic conditions, large farmers practicing transhumance pastoralism opportunism traveling great distances. La all surveyed farmers have noticed changes in their course. These changes are due either to the plantations populations on the old lanes (50%), invasion corridors by fields of crops (65%), the drying up a bit faster ponies and streams (32%). The effects of these changes between. It may be noted thereby lengthening the path of periods (65%), insufficient increasingly higher pastures (50%). The results allowed us to identify 12 transhumance routes in the neighboring municipalities of W Park, spatiotemporal dynamics showed the routes have also changed due to conflicts (68%). These changes are reflected in the reduction in grazing areas (58%), longer travel times (25%) and the emergence of new grazing areas (32%). The changes observed in the transhumance routes are part of the coping skills of nomadic herders face the difficulties they face in feeding their animals.

P-2224-18

## Agriculture and conservation: agroforestry biodiverse systems as a adaptive strategy to climate change in the brazilian Atlantic Forest

G. Narezi (1) ; PJ. Sobral (2)

(1) Federal University of Southern Bahia, Center of Studies in Environmental Sciences, Porto Seguro - BA, Brazil;

(2) University of São Paulo, Research program for the development of rural settlements and family farming, Piracicaba, Brazil

These analyses are focused on consensus possibilities regarding spatial planning solutions based on a perspective that overcomes the production/environmental polarization and dichotomy. This study also found that transition to different agricultural models, which are more sustainable and biodiverse, can help family farmers achieve their goals. Thus, this research project is aimed at analyzing recent mediation strategies for social-environmental conflicts, addressing issues like the access to land, natural resources, and the context of the in the brazilian Atlantic Forest. The objective of this research is to develop an analysis on the technical and methodological improvements and innovations applied to agroecological private and community production systems in these areas. The methodology adopted is based on bibliographic research and on the collection of primary data through field notebooks noting and oral reports gathering in participatory spaces for use planning and land occupation in future rural settlements located in the southernmost region of Bahia, that has one of the largest continuous remnants of Atlantic Rainforest of the country. In addition, we are planning semi structured interviews with researchers who are working on themes related to adaptation and resilience in agricultural ecosystems regarding to climate change. The historical context of the region addressed in this research, including its economy cycles and social and environmental conflicts, must be considered. Specifically, the agendas brought up in negotiations between social movements, traditional indigenous populations, the state and forest companies are discussed here, in order to provide perspectives that enable an agricultural model that conserves the

biodiversity of a massive part of the Atlantic Forest Biome. This paper also presents reflections regarding different management models designed for protected natural areas. From the data collected it was possible to characterize and interpret the social organization, the history of traditional agricultural production practices, of environmental conflicts related to the land management and intensification agricultural practices in degraded areas. In this context, it was possible to find evidence that the way of life and agricultural production of the area favor local sensitivity in regard of an agroecological transition process. However, the challenges over the implementation of the agroforestry biodiverse systems analyzed in this study, shows that the perspective of nature conservation along with development faces many obstacles to its propagation even though agroecology is in the forefront of the discussion. Even with the impact of successful agroecological experiences at brazilian Atlantic Forest, socio-biodiversity conservation initiatives and cultural valorization of sustainable development of traditional populations are still overlooked at public polices.

P-2224-19

## Climate Warming and Rural Poultry Production in Southern Africa - A Review

N. Nyoni (1); S. Grab (1); VGE. Archer (2)

(1) University of the Witwatersrand, Geography an Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) CSIR, Climate change, natural resources and the environment, Pretoria, South Africa

Compared to other livestock types, poultry are more likely to be owned by most rural households in developing countries. Rural poultry production is not an occupation per se, but tends to comprise a supplemental household activity, primarily amongst poor rural families, and thus contributes significantly as a source of scarce animal protein and income. Rural poultry is, however, faced with several challenges such as inherent slow growth rates, high rearing mortalities and susceptibility to diseases, poor nutrition, housing, and lack of proper health care, which impede its productivity. At the same time, the unequivocal warming of climate is expected to compound certain of these constraints. The study described here seeks to establish the relationship between climate warming and rural poultry farming in southern Africa. This is envisaged to outline the impact of climate change on rural poultry, and create a platform for developing intervention strategies to improve and sustain rural poultry in the current paper, literature on the importance of rural poultry, rural poultry production challenges, and climate warming and poultry production is reviewed, and key knowledge and data gaps identified. Researchable issues on climate warming and rural poultry production are further suggested.

P-2224-20

## The Important of Preservations and Distributions of Milk in respect to the Different Weather Changes in Federal Capital Territory Areas of Abuja, Nigeria

M. Oke (1)

(1) Michael Adedotun Oke Foundation, International Development, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

This paper look at the importance of the preservation and the distribution of milk in respect to the different weather, during the dry and wet seasons and how does it affect the level of consumption, tastes, marketing strategies, mode of preservation and the different methodology being use in preservation's of the milk products and the various problems being encountered in the process. The research was conducted in two areas council of the Federal Capital Territory namely Gwagwada and the Municipal. The Findings shows that weather changes have a great impacts in taste level of consumptions of an individuals that consumes it, it have impact in the areas of transportation during the raining seasons most Fulani's women finds it difficult to convey their milk products because of bad roads in most of the rural areas, cost price, the level of milking of animal is high in the raining seasons due to the much of grasses and indirectly affect the rate of measurement, cost reduces in getting ice blocks for preservation of the milk and during the raining seasons,
less efforts is needed because of the cold weather, which serves as preservation's . Some industries make use of chemical, good bottling technology which are using in the process and the use of ice block were done when about the point of sales to the people by the Fulani's women who sells to an individual's that consumes it. Oral interview were conducted, group discussion were made with the Different questionnaires which were administered and analyzed to the sellers of milk products and consumables respectively to ascertain the findings and pictures were taken to support.

P-2224-21

Grape growing : a symbolic marker of
climate evolution and a model to study
adaptation

N. Ollat (1) ; J. García de Cortazar-Atauri (2) ; C. Van Leeuwen (3) ; E. Duchène (4) ; P. Pieri (1) ; H. Quenel (5) ; B. Bois (6) ; G. Barbeau (7) ; P. Vivin (1) ; E. Lebon (8) ; J.P. Goutly (1) ; H. Ojeda (9) ; L. De Resseguier (3) ; E. Neethling (7) ; JM. Boursiquot (10) ; JM. Touzard (11)

(1) INRA, EGFV, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) INRA, Agroclim, Avignon, France; (3) Bordeaux Sciences Agro, EgfV, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (4) INRA, Svqg, Colmar, France; (5) CNRS-UMR6554 LETG, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France; (6) Université de Bourgogne, Centre de recherches de climatologie / biogeoosciences, Dijon, France; (7) INRA, UvV, Angers, France; (8) INRA, Lepse, Montpellier, France; (9) INRA, Domaine de pech rouge, Gruissan, France; (10) Montpellier Supagro, Agapé, Montpellier, France; (11) INRA, Montpellier, France

Grapevine has been domesticated 8 to 10 000 years ago in Eurasia. From there, grapevine growing and wine making have spread to North African continents, and more recently to the so-called "new world". It is still one of the major high value fruit crops in the world. The capacity of this crop to colonize new spaces since ancient periods, adapting a full range of climates, demonstrates its ability to face to various climatic conditions. In traditional growing zones, cultivars and human practices have been selected in order to take the best benefit from the environment to elaborate specific or unique security conditions. The balance between environmental conditions, cultivars and management practices within a specific location, referred to as the "terroir" concept (according to OIV definition), is used to market wines and increase their economic value. However current climate change may endanger this equilibrium. Considering these aspects, grape and wine industry may be considered as a model to study adaptation to climate change. It is the scope of a French project, named Laccave reported here.

The close link of grapevine phenology with climate is demonstrated through successful reconstruction of past climate trends from harvest dates. Several studies show that process-based phenological models can accurately be used to calculate past temperatures and detect anomalies. Additional information on cultivars, wine styles and produced wine quality as well as viticultural in different wine regions may help to build more robust models at local scales. Phenological models have also been used to assess the future growing conditions by using climate simulations. For example, these studies show that an advance of 30 to 40 days for major phenological stages may be expected in France at the end of the XXth century. Consequently, most varieties are expected to ripen at increasingly warmer conditions, impacting fruit composition and wine types elaborated from these grapes.

These changes are already noticeable in existing vineyards with a recorded advance of 2 to 3 weeks for harvest dates over the last 20 years. Increased sugar contents, lower acidity levels and modified aroma and polyphenolic composition have been observed. The suitability of actual growing zones may be seriously affected in the future and new regions may become appropriate. Cultivated areas in Great Britain have more than doubled in 25 years and vines are now grown in Sweden and Poland. Nevertheless the concept of suitability has to be taken with caution and large scale studies can lead to erroneous conclusions for local situations. Local climatic variability, adaptation of cultural and oenological practices and plasticity of cultivars may enlarge the limits of suitability. An international study is on the way to characterize and model thermal variability at local level with the grapevine growing region in order to define the parameters of climate variability and the most

suitable areas for the future.

It is clearly shown that local temperature variability within growing areas can be in the same range as variability between regions or several years and have to be taken into account for defining adaptation strategies. Altitude and exposition are key parameters. In each location, most suitable varieties to new climatic conditions can be chosen among traditional varieties but also within the large diversity existing among viticultural regions. The Kostostans bred from a larger range of Vitis spp background may also contribute to adaptation. Cultural practices such as canopy or soil management need to be taken into account as well as local variations in soil types. Irrigation can be an answer to severe water deficits but in the long run competition for water resources and increased soil salinity may become major problems. Alternative water sources, asRETreated waste water, can be considered but their impacts on the environment and on wine quality have to be considered. Other disruptive innovations have to be invented. Growers and actors need to be associated to the process of defining strategies of adaptation. Their perception and the organization of innovation dissemination within the industry are key issues in this approach of adaptation. The research conducted within the Laccave project participates to the definition of these strategies and describes the mutual contributions of all the resources. It will be presented, based on examples from French vineyards.

P-2224-22

Investigating Climate Variability and
Change and their Associated Impacts on
Banana Productivity over Uganda

G. Sabiti (1)

(1) Makerere University, Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Kampala, Uganda

Climate extremes associated with climate variability and change are on the rise both globally and regionally with far reaching impacts on socio-economic sectors particularly for countries like Uganda whose agriculture is largely rain-fed. Banana is a major crop that provides continuous cycles of harvests making it important for enhancing soil security. A faster increase is notable over the central than over western parts of Africa. Studies have reported continuous decline in banana productivity due to biological and environmental factors including climate extremes. This study investigated pattern in climate and the effect of current and future extremes in rainfall and surface air temperature on banana productivity over L. Victoria basin of Uganda.

The study used observed rainfall, surface air temperature and banana productivity records spanning 1971-2009 for central and western regions of Uganda. Future climate change data from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios for the period 2021-2050 were also analysed.

In this study, seasonal climate data were subjected to time series analysis and Mann-Kendall tests for trend and change detection. The study employed correlation and polynomial regression analysis to identify linkage between current rainfall and surface air temperature variability and banana yields. The Food and Agricultural Organisation Crop Water Assessment Tool (FAO-CROPWAT) was used to estimate banana yield changes due to soil moisture variations for different parts of Uganda. The FAO Eco-crop tool and Geo-spatial Information System (GIS) techniques were used to identify suitable rainfall and surface air temperature conditions for banana production to map future (2021-2050) suitability of banana production.

The study results showed no significant trend in seasonal rainfall in most parts of the country except a notable rainfall decrease in the western regions and slight increase for stations around Lake Victoria region. The results indicated significantly increasing trends in surface air temperature. A faster increase is notable over the central than over western parts of Uganda. This is partly attributed to different rates of land-use changes from increasing urbanization and population pressure in characterizing the two regions. Polynomial functions of degree 1 (rainfall) and degree 2 (air temperature) were determined to fit a relationship between banana yield and climate variables. The regression results show that rainfall variability explained 26% and 14% of the variations in banana yields over central and western regions respectively. Explanations in minimum (maximum) surface air temperature explained
31% (34%) and 26% (30%) of the variations in banana yields respectively.

The results indicated high likelihood of warming trends (2021-2050) with respect to the climate scenarios except RCP 2.6 simulation cooler (seasonal surface air temperature) and drier (seasonal rainfall) than current observations, seasonal surface air temperature and rainfall simulation of RCP 4.5 are slightly warmer and wetter than RCP 2.6 simulations. The projected seasonal rainfall and surface air temperature is more amplified in RCP6.0 compared with all other scenarios and only cooler than RCP 8.5 surface air temperature simulations (by ≈1.7 oC). Future banana suitability mapping indicate a larger (smaller) area suitable for banana production under RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5 (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the study period.

This study provides critical evidence of climate variability and change, establishes linkages between climate variability and banana productivity over Uganda that can be used to develop coping and adaptation strategies to improve banana productivity and enhance food security over the region.

P-2224-23

Medicinal and Aromatic Crops: An alternate proposition for exploiting abiotic stresses

S. Singh (1) ; AK. Singh (1) ; N. Absar (1) ; R. Singh (1) ; NS. Sangwan (2) ; DD. Patra (1)

(1) CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Agro-technology, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India; (2) CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Biochemistry and synthetic biology, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India

The demand for herbal drugs, plant based aroma chemicals and natural products is increasing at a speeding pace owing to the uniqueness, diversity and effectiveness of the associated crops used for. The secondary metabolites synthesized in medicinal and aromatic crops (MACs) also protect them from challenging circumstances like defence against certain stresses. In some cases, stress has been shown to bear positive effects on the production of secondary metabolites. The unique features of these MACs are that, many of them have the potential to withstand abiotic stresses to a higher degree as compared to traditional crops. This is also due the fact that, unlike agricultural crops, the MACs are not so sensitive to availability of soil moisture / temperature/ photo-periodism etc. In many cases vegetative parts are the ultimate products. Hence, there are lot of flexibilities in adjusting the planting and harvesting time.

Many of MACs are considered as high value crops presenting higher returns to the growers. However, cultivation of these MACs may not be encouraged at the expense of traditional agricultural crops already growing on well managed fertile lands. While several attempts are being taken up using molecular and modern approaches to fulfil the impending demands of natural products, yet still the commercial production of related crops under field conditions remains as major option. The attractive proposition, therefore, appears to evaluate and promote these crops on marginal lands which might be facing some kinds of abiotic stress. These crops can manage to improve productivity and economic output compared to traditional crops.

Various possibilities of growing medicinal and aromatic plants under different types of abiotic stresses and their evaluation in terms of imparting benefits over traditional food and agricultural crops being grown in tropical and sub-tropical regions of India will be deliberated at the meeting.

P-2224-24

Fighting food insecurity and alleviating poverty in the face of climate change through rice-growing in Tonga-Cameroon

C. Tchiedjo (1)

(1) The University of Yaounde 1, The Faculty of Arts, Letters and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon

This study focused primarily on the different actors involved in the rice production in Tonga (Western Cameroon) and strategies set to boost its cultivation, and it brought up some suggestions to the various problems that tend to weaken the activity. Preserving and enhancing food security requires agricultural production systems to increase productivity and to reduce output variability in the face of climate change and other agro-ecological and socio-economic risks. Cameroon, a low-income food-deficit country (LDC), has made agriculture a coupled with its development. But the 2007's riots, caused with the food prices rising, deeply raise the double problem in the fight against food insecurity and poverty. The objective was to investigate the role played by the rice-growing activity in Tonga in the fight against food insecurity and poverty. Rice production in Tonga is on the rise because of its natural assets and good quality of the rice cultivated in the locality. To test our hypotheses, we used Quivy Campenhout and Van (2006) and Thierry (1999) methods ranging from field investigation (enquiries to relevant stakeholders, on-the-spot assessment), sampling techniques, to data collection and processing. These methods have demonstrated that rice-growing contributes about 80% to the fight against food insecurity and alleviate poverty in Tonga. These findings could contribute to the improvement of the living conditions of rural populations in Tonga. However, to reverse the trend of rice consumption in Cameroon overall, it is necessary to move from family/traditional farming to industrial/modern agriculture on which the population could sustainably rely to improve their living conditions. The Cameroonian government through the Agricultural Sector Development Program (PADFA) provides different supports to farmers to eradicate hunger and poverty, and finally ensure a brighter future for growing. New challenges and technological opportunities for rice-based production systems for food security and poverty alleviation are then needed.

P-2224-25

Screening of Blackgram (Vigna mungo (L.) Pepper) genotypes for thermotolerance using Temperature Induction Response (TIR) technique

P. Theeban (1)

(1) tamil nadu agricultural university, crop physiology, tamilnadu, India

Temperature induction response was standardized for blackgram genotypes. A total of nineteen blackgram genotypes were screened and evaluated for thermotolerance. By using standardized optimum induction and challenging temperature, cellular level tolerance using TIR protocol was assessed in all the blackgram genotypes. The challenging lethal temperature was standardized as 50 °C at which 98 per cent of the seedling mortality was noticed. The induction temperature was standardized as 36 to 40 °C at which 46.4 per cent of growth reduction over control was noticed. Based on root length and shoot height of induced seedlings over control seedlings, the cellular level tolerance in terms of least reduction in growth and highest survival percentage was calculated. Also, the physiological basis of thermotolerance was assessed by measuring the proline content and antioxidant enzyme activities. The genotypes VBG-07-001, VBG-06-010 have intermediate heat tolerance and they can be explored as donor source in breeding programme aimed for global warming.

P-2224-26

Does diversification in smallholder coffee landscapes help farmers to adapt to climate change? Answers from Nicaragua

M. Van Zonneveld (1) ; R. Guevara, (1) ; A. Fallot, (2)

(1) Bioversity International, Turrialba, Costa Rica; (2) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD, Turrialba, Costa Rica)

Introduction: The Central American coffee production area is predicted to reduce substantially under progressive climate change. The livelihoods of many smallholders in these landscapes are threatened because they largely depend on coffee production. Despite the growing emphasis on on-farm diversification to manage climate risks and improve food security in coffee landscapes, there
are no criteria developed to quantify the status, need and
outreach of diversification.

Objectives: We identified with community representatives and other local stakeholders in two contrasting coffee zones in Nicaragua (dry and humid): 1) the role of on-farm diversification in farmer strategies in climate change adaptation; 2) different dimensions of on-farm diversification; and 3) the need for specific measures to make use of the potential of diversification.

Methods: We carried out a literature review highlighting the different dimensions of diversification, and for each dimension, the benefits and drawbacks of diversification for smallholders of coffee landscapes. We consulted institutions and focal groups from ten communities in two contrasting coffee zones in Nicaragua about: 1) the vulnerability of their livelihoods to climate changes; 2) existing and desirable strategies to adapt to these changes; 3) existing diversity in coffee farms; 4) what on-farm diversification would represent for them to be an effective way of adapting to climate change. Taken into account the gender issue, we conducted interviews in farm households to understand how actual diversification is related to climate risk management and food security status, and to identify specific needs to enable farmers making use of the potential for diversification. To embed our results in local development and research processes, our activities were linked to existing farmer initiatives and the local university agronomy faculty. In each coffee zone, phenological calendars for the principal crops were developed on the basis of the collected information to

support farmers' crop management under the existing
climate variability.

Preliminary results and discussion: Farmer families in both coffee zones indicated crop diversification among adaptation options that they prefer, particularly enrichment with fruit perennials like plantain, banana and citrus. These crops provide cash flow through the year and can be used also for own consumption to enrich the diets of farmer families. Though a large diversity of agricultural species is grown in the landscape, most on-farm activities are concentrated around coffee, maize and common beans and take place between May and August, which coincides with the months of seasonal hunger. This suggests a high potential for diversification which is currently little utilized to improve food security, generate income and to adapt production systems to climate variability. The literature review allows us to draw a first typology of complementary and competition effects amongst crops. Some farmers have already enriched their coffee farms with fruit perennials and other crops. Because of their experience, they are key persons to share knowledge about benefits and risks of crop diversification with other farmers. At landscape level, farmers stressed the importance of sufficient tree cover to ensure key environmental services like water availability. Restoration and conservation activities at landscape level will require coordination among farmer's and governmental organizations.

Acknowledgements: This study is financed by the PCP Research Platform and CCAFS.

2225 - Climate Smart Agriculture: Propaganda or Paradigm Shift?

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2225-01

From a global science conference towards
UNFCCC negotiations: mobilizing science
for transitions

P. Caron (1)

(1) Cirad, General direction, Montpellier

This presentation aims at presenting the main out comes from the 3rd Global Science Conference on Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) in Montpellier, France, 16-18 March 2015 where more than 600 researchers and 150 stakeholders and policy makers from 75 countries and 5 continents convened. CSA is a framework that mobilizes synergies and can lead to innovative and comprehensive solutions at local, regional and global levels. Delegates also confirmed that CSA solutions exist and can be brought into reality provided favorable conditions.

Agriculture was acknowledged as a sector particularly vulnerable to climate change, which impacts the livelihoods of the world's poorest people. This places increased strain on global food systems, since expectations for meeting demand for food will change tremendously within the next 40 years. Agriculture has also a central role in strongly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and lies therefore at the heart of complex challenges to be addressed. CSA invites researchers, practitioners and policy makers to explore solutions combining three pillars, food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation, underpinning sustainable landscapes and food systems. This is essential since the sector is facing unprecedented uncertainty and risks: synergies have to be looked at and trade-offs addressed. Recognizing that agriculture is a pivotal sector for international negotiations on sustainable development and climate change, CSA therefore provides a framework for looking at necessary transitions.

The main recommendations were as follows: (i) agriculture in the future must also address the challenges of sustainable food systems and landscapes; (ii) based upon a renewed research agenda that addresses a more complex set of objectives, researchers and practitioners must engage to build evidence and design the trajectories for multiple transformative transitions of climate-smart agriculture; (iii) the future relies upon policy, institutional

and financing decisions and particularly upon the
involvement of policy makers, development agencies,
civil society and the private sector with researchers and
research institutions in innovation platforms.

The strengthening of CSA scientific community must be pursued and better engaged in interfacing with policy makers, promoting scientific diplomacy. Their capacity to develop relevant global research programs and joint initiatives to address as from now questions that will be key in the future should be supported and stimulated through international cooperation platforms.

K-2225-02

Title not communicated

J.F. Soussana (1)

(1)Inra, Paris, France

Abstract not communicated

O-2225-01

Decision-support framework for targeting
investment towards climate-smart agricul-
ture practices and programs

A. Nowak (1); C. Corner-Dolloff, (1); AM. Loboguerrero, (2);

M. Lizarazo (2); F. Howland (1); N. Andrieu (3); A. Jarvis (1)

(1) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area, Cali, Colombia; (2) CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), Ccafs latinoamerica, Cali, Colombia; (3) Centre de coopération Internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), L'unité mixte de recherche innovation et développement dans l'agriculture et l'agroalimentaire, Montpellier, France

Unprecedented impacts of climate change on agricultural systems around the world coupled with increasing food demand underlie the urgency of building a more productive, resilient, and low-emission agricultural development model – one that is climate-smart. Establishing climate-smart agriculture (CSA) systems requires investment in concrete on-farm practices and broader programs to establish implementation at scales that will transform systems to address food security and development goals in the face of climate change. The
CSA Prioritization Framework (CSA-PF) was designed by scientists at CIAT and CCFAS to guide actors at multiple levels in their effort to identify best-bet CSA investment portfolios through scientific and participatory evaluation of the broad set of applicable practices for a given context. The CSA-PF is a CSA implementation planning and policy support tool aimed at governments, donors, non-governmental organizations, and local actors. The framework explicitly targets investments that diminish trade-offs between productivity increases, gains in adaptive capacity, and lowering emissions contributions from agriculture. Given the various needs of potential users and investment targets, the CS-PF can be adapted to stakeholders' needs and resources. It has been designed as a four phase process, but current pilots has varied this approach, adding additional analyses and decision taking points as needed. The first phase leads the main user of the prioritization process, in collaboration with a team of experts, to identify the objectives, scope of the study based on vulnerable areas and production systems key for food security, and the associated climatic and non-climatic challenges to be addressed through CSA interventions. The process then continues with the development of a long list of CSA practices applicable to the selected region(s) and production systems, and the identification of indicators to assess the practice's impacts on productivity, adaptation and mitigation. In Phase 2, stakeholders validate these results through participatory workshops and select a shorter list of CSA practices for further investigation based on the analyses from the first phase. An economic analysis, most often a cost-benefit analysis, is conducted in Phase 3 for the short-listed practices. A second workshop for data validation is held in Phase 4, where stakeholders discuss strategies to minimize trade-offs, to increase synergies between practices, and to minimize baseline assumptions. The process results in the collaborative development of CSA investment portfolios. Through a comparative case study approach, this paper also illustrates the results from implementing the CSA-PF in Colombia, Guatemala, and Mali, where the prioritization objectives vary from strengthening current national agricultural and climate change policy (Guatemala), to articulating governmental and non-governmental actors around CSA actions (Mali), to scaling out CSA initiatives with local community groups (Colombia). Opportunities and challenges related to the different approaches to using the framework are discussed and recommendations for down-scaling the CSA-PF and establishing multi-level planning platforms are formulated, thus contributing to the wider goal of informing agriculture and climate change policy and decision-making.

## O-2225-02

# The adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture innovations: a summary of an EU project

V. Blok (1); T. Long (2)

(1) Wageningen UR, Mst, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) Wageningen UR, MST, Wageningen, Gelderland, Netherlands

Agriculture and its supply chains will be profoundly impacted by actions to mitigate against, and adapt to climate change. The emerging concept of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) is one response to this challenge, involving the simultaneous increasing of agricultural productivity and incomes, adaptation and the building of resilience, and the reductions of GHG emissions (FAO, 2010).

Whilst heavily advanced within developing country contexts, CSA is also forming a strategic priority within Europe. Technological innovations are signalled as playing a critical role in the transition towards CSA. However, the diffusion and adoption of technological innovations within OECD countries has been slow (del Rio González 2005). This is due to the presence of social and economic barriers, including poor market incentives and low levels of awareness.

The development and refinement of appropriate business models for CSA, increasing awareness and the aligning of national and EU policies have been highlighted as responses to enhance the transition to CSA.

Results from a Climate KiC pathfinder project on CSA will be presented during this key note talk. This ongoing project seeks to increase the adoption and diffusion of CSA technological innovations across the EU by stimulating both supply and demand. The presentation will provide an overview of the projects approach and results to date,

which will include consideration of:

* The role and form of inhibiting social and economic factors.

* The role of business models in enhancing CSA technologies, and identifying critical issues that shape successful CSA business models.

* Current policy and regulatory impacts, and how these could be altered in the future to further the diffusion of CSA technologies and practices.

The development of services to boost CSA in Europe.

## 2225-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2225-01

# Trends and Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns on Rice Yields in Nigeria

C. Akinbile (1); O. Ogunmola (1); S. Akande (2)

(1) Federal University of Technology, Akure(FUTA), Agricultural & Environmental Engineering, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Federal University of Technology, Centre for space research and applications, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Due to the increasing decline in food especially rice production, a research access to the impact of climate variability on food crop in Nigeria was conducted. Trends and spatial analysis of the effect of temperature and rainfall on rice yield was carried out using 40 years climate and rice yield data. Past trends analysis was conducted with forty years (1971-2010) climate data obtained from the International Institute of Tropical agriculture (IITA) Ibadan, Nigeria while rice yield data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) respectively. Future trends for the next forty years (2011-2050) projections on the climate variability and trends on rice yields were also forecasted. Six cities, one in each of the six ago-ecological zones of Nigeria were selected for the studies which were Calabar in Mangrove forest, Enugu in wooded Savannah, Ikeja in tropical rain forest, Ilorin in Guinea Savannah, Kaduna in Sudan Sahel and Maiduguri in Sahel Savannah. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was employed to map out spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall over the entire country using the six cities in each of the six zones as nodal sampling points. Results and predictions were analyzed using Statistical packages such as Mann-Kendall and Sens' tests, multiple linear regression, cross-correlation analysis, Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS), Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Duncan's multiple range test (DMRT) and Arc surfer software, all at 95% level of significance. Rainfall showed increasing trends in Enugu, Ilorin, Calabar, Ikeja, and Maiduguri but decreasing trends were observed in Kaduna while temperature showed increasing trends in all the cities considered in the last four decades. The future climate projections showed increasing rainfall trends in Enugu, Calabar, Ikeja, and Maiduguri while decreasing trends were observed in Kaduna and Ilorin while temperature showed increasing trends in all the cities for the next four decades. For annual rainfall no significant trend was observed in Calabar, Ilorin and Enugu but a statistically significant negative trend was observed in Kaduna. Similarly, statistically significant positive trends of rice yield, rainfall, and temperature were observed in Ikeja and Maiduguri in the last four decades. Rainfall decreased at the rate of 4.706mmmyr⁻¹ (P) while rice yield increased at the rate of 0.052t/ha/yr (P) in Kaduna. In Maiduguri, temperature increased at the rate of 0.063°C/yr (P) while rice yield increased at the rate of 0.063t/ha/yr (P. Mann-Kendall tests) showed that rice yield and temperature had generally statistically significant positive trends in Calabar, Ilorin, Kaduna, and Enugu. Pearson correlation also showed that the relationship between rainfall and yield is not significant in Calabar, Enugu, Ilorin, and Kaduna while temperature against yield is significant at 0.01 in Calabar, Enugu, Ikeja, and 0.05 level of significance at Ilorin. The multiple linear regression models also showed that rainfall was insignificant in Calabar, Ikeja, Ilorin, and Kaduna while maximum temperature was insignificant only in Maiduguri. Adaptation strategies such as genetically modifying rice varieties to tolerate projected changes in
rainfall and temperature trends as well as effective water use strategies (supplemental irrigation) in areas of deficit rainfall are recommended to ensure food security and sustainable livelihoods in Nigeria.

P-2225-02

## Salinity a Deleterious Impacts of Climate Change: Biochemical and Physiological indicators of adaptation of Vicia faba L. to Salt Stress

F. Anya (1); R. Fghire (1); S. Wahbi (1); C. Loufi (1)
(1) Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Biology/Laboratory of Biotechnology and plant physiology, Marrakech, Morocco

Plant physiological processes are invariably linked to the deleterious influences of climate change. Salinity stress is considered as one of the major abiotic stresses which strongly reduced crop productivity. In order to assess the effect of salinity constraint on some physiological and biochemical parameters, the leaf bean (Vicia faba L.), two cultivars (Extra Hative and Lobab), originated from Morocco, representatives of two climatic zones were evaluated for their response to salt stress. In this study, the biochemical and physiological responses of two salt stresses levels (0 and 150 mM NaCl) on V. faba L. and the effect of exogenous salicylic acid (0.5 mM) at 150 mM salt stress were investigated. The irrigation with salt water (150 mM of NaCl) was applied after 15 days of sowing for 21 days. The biochemical and physiological characteristics of Vicia faba L. were measured including: leaf water potential, Stomatal conductance, membrane permeability, chlorophyll content and antioxidant activity (PPO, POD and SOD). The results showed that the physiological and biochemical parameters were affected by salt concentration and there were varying responses between varieties. Thus irrigation with saline water significantly reduced all plant biochemical and physiological parameters in comparison to those respective control. Indeed, Salinity affected leaf water potential, Stomatal conductance and perturbation of membrane permeability. However salt stress caused an activation of oxidative enzymes (PPO, POD and SOD). The increasing of the antioxidant activities was significantly (p<0.05) correlated with salt stress. These results suggest that antioxidant enzymes play an important role in reducing oxidative stress in the broad bean exposed to salt stress. Nevertheless the protein and chlorophyll content showed an increasing while salt stress. Variation of growth arrest was observed with exogenous applications of salicylic acid (SA) under salt stress conditions. Overall, the positive effect of SA towards resistance to the salinity of V.faba L. will provide some practical basis for V.faba L. cultivation. Elsewhere comparison between cultivars resulted in significant difference of tolerance where the Extra native present the better performance under salt stress. From these results, we conclude that High levels of salt stress negatively affected growth parameters, although selection of tolerant cultivars is a viable solution as the case of Extra native in this study.

P-2225-03

## Fostering Climate Smart Agriculture: what role for voluntary sustainability standards?

G. Balineau (1)

(1) Agence Française de Développement, Paris, France

Greenhouse gas emissions are seen by economists and others as negative externalities of production (and, to a lesser extent, consumption, and trade. In this context, two ways of regulating environment are generally considered for public action: "command-and-control" orders (that is to say legislative and/or coercive regulation) and/or "market-based" instruments (for example creating a market for pollution rights). However, a "third wave of regulation" (Tietenberg, 1998, "Disclosure strategies for pollution control", Environmental and Resource Economics, 11, 587-602) has emerged since two or three decades, based on information provision. This is especially the case in agriculture. Indeed, consumers should be linked to smart producers: Eco-labels (aslo called "voluntary sustainability standards») such as "carbon free" or "environmental-friendly" assertions, which have proliferated since the 1990s are part of this third wave of environmental regulation based on information provision. What can be their role for mitigation and

adaptation to climate change? How can we paradoxically solve production externalities through the so-called "responsible" consumption while consumers should be rational and free ride when they are told to contribute to common or public goods? To assess the efficiency of eco-labels in contributing mitigation and adaptation challenges, we have to answer 3 questions:

* First, do eco-labels explicitly include the objectives of mitigation and adaptation to climate change? Studying charters and standards for forest-based products and cocoa, we show that mitigation criteria are almost systematically included in eco-labels standards, whereas this is clearly not the case for adaptation ones.

* Second, why should eco-labels be successful in inducing consumers' behaviors? Change in regulation and market-based instruments failed. We show that there are two hypotheses behind the efficiency of labels: i) consumers are willing to pay for contributing to common or public goods and ii) labels solve two types of asymmetry/uncertainty: the first is an asymmetry of information "a la Akerlof" (Akerlof, G. A.; 1970, "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism", Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488-500), the second is an uncertainty "a la Darby" and iii) Akerlof, G. Karni; 1973, "Free Competition and the Optimal Amount of Fraud", Journal of Law and Economics, 16(1), 67-88). Research show that i) consumers are willing to pay for common goods, ii) asymmetry of information about the respect of standards is not a problem but that iii) uncertainty about the efficiency of standards (i.e. what criteria should eco-labels include) is still prevalent.

* Third, labels should not create new externalities or reverse effect, which could be the case if; for example, consumers do not consider the impact of their aggregated consumption but only by units consumed.

As a conclusion, we draw the lessons in terms of possible action for donors and public powers.

P-2225-04

## Assessment of the olive tree adaptation to water stress and tool to increase crop performance in the context of climatic changes

D. Boujnah (1)

(1) Institut de la Recherche et de l'Enseignement Supérieur Agricole, Institut de l'Ouvrier, Sousse, Tunisia

Global climate change will introduce substantial changes to the agricultural ecosystems and consequently will affect the agricultural productivity. Water stress is the most important factor limiting plant growth and production. Thus, monitoring of plant water status in field grown is considered of great interest, as it would allow the diagnoses of the onset and severity of water stress so as to optimise the cultural practices according to the actual plant needs. Changes in plant water status could be described by using a sensitive physiological indicator, which integrates both soil and climatic conditions. The aim of our study is to evaluate a quantitative direct relationship of the olive tree water status and the environmental conditions that might be used to evaluate the response of the tree to some unconventional cultural practices: use of hydro absorbent, increasing plantation density and supplement water with traditional olive tree grove. For online control two techniques was used: the hydroabsorbent system and the leaf patch clamp pressure probe (LPCP) which give information about the relative changes in turgor pressure (Pc) of the monitored plant.

The results of the sap flow measurement show the direct influence of changes in environmental factors, water state and the physiological parameter of the tree on the sap flow level among the olive tree. For the LPCP the instantaneous data, provided by "the probe, have allowed us to have accurate information on the hydraulic behavior of the olive trees and the efficiency of hydro absorbent injected in the soil to enhance the effect of the available water. Indeed, we found that the effect of the water provided by the hydro-absorbent doesn't act directly on the olive trees as is the case of direct water supply; its effect is delayed for a few days. This product can be used effectively to support the
tree during periods of intense biological activity. Also, the results confirmed some of the findings observed on olive tree particularly its high adaptability to environmental conditions, as after a period of stress observed in plants grown under rained conditions where an improved of turgor potential was recorded.

P-2225-05

## Broadening the genetic base and knowledge of cultivated crops for climate adaptation: A citizen science approach

A. Gupta (1); S. Mittra, (1); EJ. Van (2); PN. Mathur, (1)

(1) Bioview International, New Delhi, India; (2) Bioview International, Turrialba, Costa Rica

Climate change has already started to roll and showing its effects different aspects of today's world. Climate change affects crop production directly through the intensity and frequency of different types of stress, such as drought, heat stress, and flooding. One important adaptation measure is that farmers change to new varieties and crops. To make these changes, farmers first need information about new options and how they perform on their farms. This requires a massive effort in creating new information about crops and varieties in different contexts that is difficult to achieve with current approaches. Our work uses a novel citizen science approach to accelerate the creation of new information. We started in 2012 in the Indo Gangetic Plains of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India with rice and wheat. Since then, the approach has also been applied in Eastern Africa and Central America. This presentation focuses on India, where the application of the citizen science approach has advanced most.

The citizen science approach uses the farmers' views and preference in a participatory way using crowdsourcing to look for the best set of genotypes that can perform well under the changed climatic conditions of India. We first screened more than 300 varieties released from the National Agricultural Research System (NARS), selecting 12-20 varieties in each site through Participatory Variatial Selection (PVS) trials, comparing with current varieties. From this set, we contributed different combinations of 3 varieties to each of the farmers to grow alongside their own regular crop. The variety names are not marked on the packages to avoid any bias based on previous knowledge or comparisons with neighbours during the crop cycle. We ask farmers 8-9 questions about their preferences. Farmers rank these 3 varieties evaluating various characteristics such as germination, yield, and resistance to pests and diseases. At the end of the season this data is compiled to see the overall performance of these newly introduced varieties as per the farmers' verdict of different characters. We also did a set of carefully managed on-farm trials with quantitative evaluation of the full variatial set (15-20 varieties) and varieties currently grown in the area for agronomic performance. One or two of these trials are done per village and managed by leader-farmers who invite their neighbours to evaluate these varieties. We also record local weather conditions by using low-cost meteorological sensors. Every season, we repeat the process with a new set of varieties as we replace the varieties that received low marks from the farmers by a fresh set of varieties.

In wheat, the farmers of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh were growing only two varieties, UP 262 and PBW 343. Our evaluation shows that in three districts in Bihar the 12-20 varieties introduce by the project yielded more than the current varieties. Similar results were obtained for rice. Of the introduced varieties, 3 outgrewed the 5 most popular hybrid varieties that the farmers are currently growing. This shows that genetic broadening and an increase in production can be combined and that the introduction of diversity can quickly close the climate adaptation lag.

Variatial evaluation data produced by the participatory variety evaluation done through on-farm plots with all varieties provided very similar results to the data provided by the crowdsourcing trials with 3 varieties per farmer. This was true for both wheat and rice. This indicates that crowdsourcing gives reliable results, while exposing the materials to a broader group of farmers with lower costs. We are analysing the feasibility of combining the variety evaluation data with the meteorological data to generalize variety recommendations to a wider area.

The impact that was noticed from the first season is farmers have started to save the seeds of the varieties

that they like and find superior to the ones that they were already growing. The farmers are also trained in producing the seeds of these selected varieties and a number of groups are now producing and selling seed. Seed sales by farmer groups will help to make it financially sustainable to continue the introduction, testing and marketing of new varieties and adapt to new climatic conditions.

P-2225-06

## Managing the biological function of N2O reduction for mitigating soil N2O emission

C. Henault (1); JPA, Cohan (2); GC (3); M. Bardy (4); X. Galiegue (5); R. Phillippon, (6); C. Revellin, (7)

(1) INRA, UR S02 Alôres, France; (2) ARVALIS, Ferme expérimentale de la jaille et Chapelle Saint Sauveur, France; (3) CETIOM, Thiverval Grignon, France; (4) INRA, Us infosol, Alôres, France; (5) Université Alôres, Laboratoire d'économie d'ôres, Alôres, France; (6) AgroPithiviers, Pithiviers, France; (7) INRA, Agroecologie, Dijon, France

Human activities are currently considered to emit 5.3 Tg N-N2O per year, mainly from agriculture that accounts for around two-thirds of these emissions (UN, 2013). The atmospheric N2O is involved both in the greenhouse effect with a contribution on a molar basis of around 300 in relation to CO2 (Rodhe, 1990) and in ozone depletion (Ravishankara et al., 2009). The development of new approaches to increase agricultural efficiency and potential mitigation pathways are required in particular in the context of the continuing population growth.

In soils, N2O is mainly produced through the microbial processes of denitrification and of nitrification. The last step of the denitrification process (N2O - N2) is currently the only known pathway for the terrestrial removal of N2O. N2O reduction is catalysed by the N2O reductase enzyme encoded by the nosZ gene (Viebrock and Zumft, 1988). The efficiency of soils to reduce N2O to N2 is highly variable. Soils with low N2O reduction potential have also been unproductive by gravels in N2O on a field scale (Henault et al., 2005). We developed strategies to mitigate N2O emissions from agricultural soils based on the stimulation of the microbial process of reduction of N2O to N2. We therefore developed two different approaches for promoting the biological reduction of N2O in soils.

The first one, is based on the results previously obtained by Sameshima-Saito et al. (2004) who had observed that SDB11an, a strain of Bradyrhizobium japonicum USDA110, carrying the nosZ gene, were able to remove low concentrations of N2O. We studied the consumption of N2O by strains of Bradyrhizobium japonicum (USDA110 and MSDG G49) on inoculated soybean plants cultivated in soil pots during a greenhouse experiment. During this experiment, we switched from a system acting as an N2O source (soil + soybean inoculated with a nosZ gene) depleted strain) to a system acting as an N2O sink (soil + soybean inoculated with strains carrying the nosZ gene). Calculations using the quantitative results clearly suggest an environmental benefit of nosZ+-nodulated leguminous on the field scale, with an assessed abatement of field emission of 60 % during the investigated period, (Hénault and Revellin, 2011).

The principle of the second approach is to understand the physico-chemical determinism of the N2O reduction in soils then to manage these conditions to promote N2O reduction. Around 100 soil samples of the RMQs, the French Soil Quality Monitoring Network, were sampled and analysed for determining their physico-chemical conditions associated to their capacity to reduce N2O into N2. Soil pH was observed as an essential determinant of the capacity of soil to reduce N2O, this capacity increasing with soil pH. A field experiment was then set up on an acidic soil (pH 5.5) in the presence of a functional (nosZ gene) or physico-chemical (pH management) actions. A stimulation of the N2O reduction function in soil allows mitigating soil N2O emissions. These both approaches are very interesting because they don't create any transfer of nitrogen pollution in environment and because they do not compromise agricultural production of proteins. Their

The management of the biological reduction of N2O into N2 appears possible both by biological (inoculation of leguminous crops by gravels having a functional (nosZ gene) or physico-chemical (pH management) actions). A stimulation of the N2O reduction function in soil allows mitigating soil N2O emissions. These both approaches are very interesting because they don't create any transfer of nitrogen pollution in environment and because they do not compromise agricultural production of proteins. Their
economic aspects are currently investigated.

These studies are supported by the ADEME (SOLGES project), the Conseil Regional Centre Val de Loire (PUIGES project) and the Labex Voltaire (ANR-10-LaBX100-01).

## P-2225-07

# Climate Smart Adaptation on Lake Kariba: A Case Study of Siavonga District

### M. Kabisa (1)

(1) University of Zambia, Geography and Environmental Sciences, Lusaka, Zambia

Siavonga district has for the last two decades experienced declining, unpredictable and poorly distributed rainfall and experiencing climate change impacts. Climate impact studies on Lake Kariba Kapenta fish stocks show increased temperature and reduced rainfall are the main climatic factors affecting fish catch. This has led to reduced primary productivity, fish productivity and resulted in reduced Kapenta fish catch. These studies however, have not considered resource users perceptions and their adaptation to climatic variability and change.

The adaptation strategies of Kapenta fishers to climate variability and their perceptions were investigated in Siavonga district, using primary data collected by a structured questionnaire, interview schedule and secondary data. A random sampling technique was used to select 90 Kapenta fishers on Lake Kariba. Descriptive statistics, Multiple Regression Analysis, Pearson Correlation Coefficient and a Likert scale were used to analyze the data collected.

Strategies employed by the Fishers to adapt to impacts of climate variability included no adaptation (9.5%), shifting fishing times (28.8%), fishing for longer time periods (38.4%), fishing in waters further away than before (69.9%), changing fishing gear (8.2%), catching smaller fish (8.2%), alternative livelihoods (5.5%) and Other specified options (6.8%). About 64.3% of the strategies used have the potential to be climate-smart as they comply with Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook by FAO (2010) and Principles of the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries Management.

The fishers who were adapting did not all exclusively use one strategy. Based on the number of strategies employed, 36 respondents (44.6%) used a single strategy, 27 respondents (33.9%) used two, 12 respondents (14.3%) used three, 4 respondents (5.4%) used four and 1 respondent (1.8%) used five adaptation strategies. This implies that the fishers are diversifying ways to deal with climate impacts on the catch and use a variety of strategies depending on which option is available at the time.

The respondents noted that there were constraints to adapting to climate variability. A total of 66 (82%) of the adapting fishers stated that they faced some difficulties in adapting. Of these, 48 respondents (60%) cited a lack of money as being the main constraint to adaptation and 24 respondents (30%) cited other reasons.

A total of 79 Kapenta fishers (87.7%) were aware of climate variability. In terms of the amount of rainfall in the district 44 respondents (49.2%) perceived a decrease and 25 respondents (27.9%) perceived an increase. In terms of temperature, 31 respondents (34.4%) stated there was an increase and 10 respondents (11.5%) perceived a decrease. About 15 respondents (16.4%) perceived an increase in Kapenta catches and 53 respondents (59%) perceived a decrease in catches. The Regression model gave an R² value of 0.195. Multiple Regression analysis showed that $A^2 \le 0.001$, Years of Fishing Experience ($p \le 0.024$) and Access to Extension services ($p \le 0.054$) have the most significant relationship with perceptions as well as having the highest Beta values contributing to perceptions to climate variability. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that the independent variables are not highly correlated. They had a range of values between -0.273 and 0.066, which are below 0.3, indicating a small strength of association.

## P-2225-08

# Revamping Agriculture Sector through Sustainable method: Using Solar Water Pumps in Punjab state (Study of selected Districts)

### R. Kaur (1)

(1) Punjab University, Public Administration Department, Mohali, Punjab, India

Abstract- Sustainable agriculture is the activity oriented concept to produce food in a suitable quality and quantity and guarantee food security for the world. Land use, crop choice, irrigation, and fertilization should be done in such a way that it should not lead to land degradation and desertification. India's irrigated agriculture sector plays a significant role in India's economic development as 28% of India's GDP and 67% of employment is based on agriculture. The reliable irrigation is a critical demand as farmers in India are facing issues like erratic grid supply, increasing unreliability on monsoon rains and high cost of diesel pumps. The reliability of less than 1000 cubic metre per capita is considered as scarcity as per International Standards and remedial measures. Government of India at union level and State Governments had formulated certain policies and programmes to overcome this issue and launched Solar Water Pumps (SWP) as a solution to irrigate fields adequately as it is environmental friendly and cost effective. Presently, Punjab state food grain production has failed by 16.65 million tonnes to meet its target as Punjab face problems of less energy generation for farms. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in coordination with other governmental agencies and state nodal agencies like Punjab Energy Development Agency (PEDA) have implemented SWP schemes for improving irrigation system to increase production of food grain.

An attempt will be made through this to analyse need and scope of the implementation of SWP scheme in state of Punjab for sustainable irrigation to increase crop production. The main objective of the study is to evaluate the extent of scheme in creating awareness among population involved in agriculture while considering the perception of beneficiaries towards their installation process to meet their requirement of energy. Paper will also discuss involvement of Government machinery involved in enforcement of scheme and will suggest measures to improve the efficiency of SWPs. Primary and secondary sources will be used in the proposed research paper. The primary data will be taken from two districts, Gurdaspur (max, SWPs installed) and Fatehgarh Sahib (min SWPs installed). 100 farmers will be selected as sample size for survey (50 from each district). Secondary data will be collected from annual reports of PEDA, e-Journals and other Government documents. Paper is beneficial for Government agencies and Research Scholars.

## P-2225-09

# Barriers to linking mitigation and adaptation in smallholder farming systems: lessons from maize cultivation among Mayas in southern Belize

### R. Kongsager (1)

(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark

Linking of adaptation and mitigation in agriculture is proposed as a necessity, as the sector will need adaptation to resist future climatic changes, and because high emissions from the sector contribute significantly to climate change. This study investigate the barriers for making adjustments in the maize production among Maya communities in Southern Belize. It is an exploratory case study based on qualitative interviews and field observations, where four low external input adjustments that potentially will result in both adaptation and mitigation benefits were suggested. The findings show that adjustments to enhance the adaptation-mitigation link in small-scale maize production in Maya villages in Southern Belize are possible in principle, however several of the barriers can make the overall climate-smart objective difficult to implement in practice. The barriers are of proximate and indirect nature, exist at different spatial scales and involve various governance levels. Land tenure, market access, and changes in the traditional culture are shown to be some of the barriers, but it is also demonstrated that barriers are not homogenous across the villages in the region. An
overall district level strategy for enhancing the adaptation and mitigation link is possible, but the toolbox should contain a wide variety of approaches. Which could happen, for instance, through alterations of the land tenure and land taxation system at the national level, enhancement of the agricultural extension system to ease the access to knowledge and input at district level, and by supporting a less complex governance structure at village level.

P-P225-10

## Tropical climate-smart soil conservation technologies for agro-ecosystem resilience

S. Mesele (1) ; H. Ej. (1) ; A. Jo. (2)

(1) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, West Africa Soil Health Consortia, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Federal University of Agriculture, Soil science and land management, Abequokuta, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Enhancing resilience in ecosystem changes for improved agro-ecosystem services is a prerequisite for sustainable land management. Sustainable land management in the context of climate change presents great potential for producer and enhancement of ecosystem services in all land use systems. The degradation of water, soil and vegetation, as well as greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change can be significantly abridged by climate-smart soil conservation technologies that simultaneously conserve natural resources and increase crop yields. These climate-smart soil conservation technologies are however scattered and poorly documented in the literature with varying levels of adoption among the smallholder farmers who are the backbone of tropical agriculture. This paper therefore reviews different soil conservation technologies that have been found effective in different agro-ecological zones, and with the capacity to enhance resilience in tropical agro-ecosystems. These technologies were grouped into improved farming system technologies, soil cover/residue management technologies, cropping system technologies, soil management technologies, soil fertility amendments technologies and mechanical field technologies. The need for further research, extension and appropriate policy formulations on these technologies were further highlighted. It was concluded that no single technology is best for any particular area in the tropics but a combination of two or more technologies or systems within the technologies may be very effective and productive in terms of increased crop production and sustainable land management, particularly within the socio-economic competencies of smallholder farmers.

P-P2225-11

## Climate-smart agriculture and cocoa: engaging with farmers and their supply chains in Ghana

S. Muilerman (1) ; C. Bunn (2) ; H. Kirscht (3) ; L. Jassogne (4) ; M. Lundy (2) ; P. Läderach (5) ; P. Van Asten (4) ; G. Schroth (6) ; R. Asare (1) ; N.A. Anyidodo, (7)

(1) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, West Africa, Accra, Ghana; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; (3) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Yaoundé, Cameroon; (4) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IIA), Systems agronomy, Kampala, Uganda; (5) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam; (6) Rainforest Alliance, A. Brazil; (7) University of Ghana, Institute of statistical, social and economic research, Legon, Ghana

Global demand for cocoa has been increasing 2-3% annually, especially due to growing demand in Asia. The cocoa industry is challenged to produce the additional million tons required over the next years. The historic growth model for cocoa, especially in the Upper Guinea Rainforest areas, was largely based on successive waves of migrated cocoa farmers moving into virgin forests. With less than 15% of the original forest cover remaining in West Africa, this model has collapsed. Recent studies have revealed that climate change further threatens the current production zones, negatively impacting production if nothing changes. Sustainable, profitable and climate-smart intensification is required, not only to sustain the global industry, but also the livelihoods of its smallholder producers, including those that can improve productivity, including full-sun or low shade intensified

cocoa, today apply to an ever-decreasing group of cocoa producers who have the necessary resources for this type of farming; moreover, it may increase the vulnerability of cocoa farmers to climate change. Availability and access to the right agro-inputs is necessary but insufficient to prepare farmers for climate change. Success raising productivity has been achieved especially in Ghana's last cocoa frontier, the Western Region, which has been the prime focus of vast government subsidy and distribution schemes. However, demonstrated yield growth figures could not sustainably be scaled to a national level. This is also clearly demonstrated by the persistence of a 50 to 75 percent yield gap for cocoa under on-farm compared to on-station conditions. Climate-smart cocoa initiatives will not only need to look at the farming systems (incl. crop diversification to buffer farmers against market, policy and environmental risks), but will also need to take on an integrated value chain approach. Proposed solutions will need to be adopted at scale, based on real-world incentives and resonating with a diverse landscape of stakeholders. Awareness needs to be raised by the identification of exposure levels and ranking of potential impacts that may vary significantly across the country and region. Relevant climate smart practices will need to be disseminated using appropriate vehicles to reach scale, e.g. by linking with existing training programs and impact investors to reach producers and their organizations. With the age of the average cocoa farmer being about 50 years, adapting for the future will also require the industry to make smallholder cocoa farming more attractive and accessible for younger farmers with strong climate smart business models. To confront all these challenges we present an inclusive approach that unites stakeholders throughout the value chain and marries existing value chain interventions focused on changing farmer practices and the provision of innovative financial products with climate change adaptation tools and best management practices for identifying and scaling site-specific and appropriate CSA practices, assessed against the risks of exposure on a climate change gradient, which are then mainstreamed into voluntary certification schemes and linked to impact investment in producer organizations.

P-P2225-12

## Exploring socio-economic and bio-physical indicators for trade-offs in Climate Smart Agriculture adoption: a case study from Tanzania and Uganda

C. Mwongera (1) ; L. Winowiecki (2) ; K. Shikuku (1) ; P. Läderach (3)

(1) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA/Soils, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Soils, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam

The contribution of climate smart agriculture (CSA) in the achievement of sustainable development goals under climate change cannot be overemphasized. CSA sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience, lowers greenhouse gas emissions, and enhances achievement of national food security. In employing CSA, a critical gap lies in the understanding and correct representation of trade-offs across temporal and spatial scales to inform decision makers. The challenge is greater in smallholder farming systems where climate change is more highly diverse and complex bio-physical and socio-economic environments all of which produce multiple livelihood strategies, opportunities, and constraints for agricultural productivity. Unlocking the indicators for trade-offs in these production system is key in understanding prospective or ex-ante effects of technology changes and the bio-physical, social and economic outcomes under climate change.

We illustrate key bio-physical and socio-economic indicators for trade-offs in CSA adoption, across diverse landscapes drawing on household surveys in four districts in the Acholi sub-region of northern Uganda and four districts across the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania in 2014. The data revealed key indicators include yield, input use, gender-disaggregated labor, off-farm employment, asset poverty, on-farm food security and soil health. The indicators varied across and between sites. In addition we use the indicators to show the tradeoffs in CSA adoption between economic outcomes (greater farm income) and environmental and social outcomes (increased environmental health, reduction in poverty levels, reduced labour demand) across landscapes and to determine the likelihood that farmers will adopt
new practices. For instance farmers are less likely to make changes during months of food insufficiency as they engage more in off-farm employment. In addition ownership of farm assets enhances the uptake of CSA. Some practices such as slash and burn, common in northern Uganda lower soil quality with negative impact on adoption of CSA practices. Engaging heavily in off-farm employment can be an indication of low farm income and willingness to change current practice. In other contexts CSA might require more time spent on the farm reducing the likelihood of engaging in off-farm activities. Farmers with better soil health were generally more willing to adopt CSA practices that in areas with high land degradation. Socio-economic attributes such as higher off-farm income, high education levels, good technical knowledge and high social preference also increase the likelihood of CSA adoption.

This analysis revealed key barriers for each of the communities that need to be overcome in order to implement and out-scale adoption of locally appropriate CSA practices as well as the importance of assessing the spatial and social context. The study highlights that assessing bio-physical and socio-economic trade-offs assessing invasive and non-native species could help to better target CSA farming systems to foster adaptation to climate change.

## P-2225-13

# Exploring solutions in response to Biosinsvasions threatening agroecosystems under climate change scenarios: pest/predator adaptation and biodiversity management of acarofauna as an example

M. Navajas (1) ; MS. Tixier (2)

(1) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Umr cbgp (inra / ird / cirad / montpellier supagro - centre de biologie gestion des populations, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France ; (2) Montpellier SupAgro, Umr cbgp (inra / ird / cirad / montpellier supagro) - centre de biologie gestion des populations, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France

Under climate change scenarios, increasing ecological and climatic stresses create new conditions posing a major threat to global agriculture. Particular relevant are invasive alien species introduced into agroecosystems where they often grow into destructive pests. The examples of bioinvasions threatening agricultural systems are unfortunately frequent and their number is expected to increase. Processes of species diversification and adaptation of pests but also natural enemies are fundamental for understanding the impact these organisms have or will have on populations, communities and ecosystems under new climatic conditions. These issues are here addressed taken as an example the acarofauna in crop solanaceous systems in the Mediterranean region. A focus is done on an invasive spider mite, Tetranychus evansi. While considered to be native to South America this tropical species has emerged as a new damaging pest in more temperate areas of the planet, in Europe and in other continents. Population genetics approaches unveiled that colonization routes of the mite are complex. By distinguishing among multiple pathogen and timing of introductions, there is evidence for different genotypes of T. evansi responding to climate in distinct ways, affecting the ability of populations to adapt and being invasive. The effect of climate change affecting future range shifts is taking in consideration by using niche distribution modelling under several climatic scenarios. By exploring plant protection strategies along with predicting pest adaptation, much effort has been done on classical biological control to find native predators (Phytoseidae mite family) in the area of origin of the pest, but none are completely efficient. Also, the introduction of exotic natural enemies is more and more questioned, in an environmental side effects point of view. More relevant would be to explore how the agroecosystem diversification could be managed to limit pest species abundance (under the resource concentration hypothesis) and to enhance natural enemy diversity and abundance (under the natural enemy hypothesis). To exploit natural biodiversity but also predict the species potential for range expansion under new climatic conditions, appear as highly informative to advance adapted strategies for climate-smart agriculture.

## P-2225-14

# The Dynamics of East African Climate and the Suitability of crop Mapping over the Mountainous Areas in a changing climate

G. Otieno (1)

(1) university of nairobi, meteorology, nairobi, Kenya

The East African region is bordered by mountains that are crucial in modulating the climate of the region. The current evidence of climate change and climate variability poses risks to the sustainable development of the society.

The study examined trends in projected rainfall and air temperature and suitability of growing major staple food under a changing climate around the mountainous areas of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia.

The data used were observed rainfall, temperature datasets, the second version of African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) for the period 1981-2010 and future projection from 2011-2040. The downscaled model estimates of future climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). The Mann-Kendal test was used for trend analysis and the FAO ECO-crop model was used for suitability mapping of various agricultural zones for production of maize and beans at the lowlands and down slope of the mountainous areas.

At least ten stations indicated a temperature rise of 0.3 per decade. High seasonal rainfall variability was experienced during March-May and October-December seasons. The values of Mann-Kendal were in the range of 0.8 - 2.0. The projection showed that temperature will continue to rise by about 0.5 per decade.

There was marginal suitability for production of beans and maize over most parts of the four countries. Most of the western and central part of Kenya showed high potential for production of the two crops. This trend was also reported in central Part of Uganda and coastal area of Tanzania.

The future suitability mapping for crops production showed quite similar patterns as the current situation. The highland and rift valley regions would no longer be suitable for growing the crops. The increased human activities around these regions like deforestation probably could account for the decline in suitability of growing these crops.

The threats from climate change are likely to impact negatively on the agricultural activities around the mountainous areas. The farming community living around the slopes of the mountainous areas should diversify the farming activities and best practices to cope with current climate variability and adapt to future climate changes.

## P-2225-15

# Climate smart rice practice under drip irrigation

T. Parthasarathi (1) ; V. Koothan (2) ; S. Mohandass (3) ; V. Eli (4)

(1) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Crop Physiology, Coimbatore, India; (2) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Tamil nadu rice research institute, Aduthurai, India; (3) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Department of crop physiology, Coimbatore, India; (4) Netafim Irrigation Ltd, Agronomy chief, Israel, Israel

Drip irrigation studies were conducted in aerobic rice during Dry Season (DS), 2011 Summer Season (SS) 2012 and Summer Season (SS) 2013 in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India. Drip irrigation treatments comprised of three levels of lateral distance (0.6, 0.8 or 1.0 m lateral distance) with the two discharge rates (0.6 or 1.0 L h⁻¹ emitters) in DS 2011. In SS 2012, 2013 the micro irrigation treatments namely, surface, sub surface drip irrigation (SDI) and conventional aerobic rice practice. Among the lateral distances, 0.8 m lateral distance registered as the optimum spacing for the better performance in root characters, growth and yield attributes than rest of the lateral distances. From the surface-drip and sub-surface drip irrigation (SDI) treatments, the SDI performed better in terms of root character, growth and yield attributes. Interactively,
laterals spaced at 0.8 m with 1.0 L h-1 drippers laid
sub surface-drip through fertigation exhibited better
performance in terms of root parameters (such as root
length, Root Mass Density, root biomass and root volume)
along with growth attributes (Leaf Area Index, Specific Leaf
Weight, Crop Growth Rate and Net Assimilation Rate), yield
and its components (such as productive tillers, spikelet
numbers, filled grain percentage and Harvest Index) along
with water saving when compared with the conventional
irrigation treatment. Drip irrigated plants emitted lesser
methane over the others. Therefore, it is suggested that
the lateral spacing of 0.8 m with 1.0 L h-1 drippers under
SDI through fertigation is adjudged as a climate smart
practice for enhancing the values for water productivity,
grain yield and reducing methane emission in areas of
limited water availability.

P-2225-16

Private Sector Actions to Enable Climate-
Smart Agriculture in Small-Scale Farming in
East Africa

S. Quail (1); L. Onyango, (2); J. Kinyangi (3); J. Recha (4)

(1) University of Florida, School of forest resources and conservation, Gainesville, United States of America; (2) Maseno University, Urban and regional planning, Maseno, Kenya; (3) ILRI, Ccafs east africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (4) International Institute for Tropical Agriculture, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Nairobi, Kenya

Climate change is projected to disrupt food production in East Africa, in particular for small-scale farmers; however, adoption of agricultural innovations is linked to improved food production and food security, which in turn, will help farmers adopt to altered weather patterns. Agricultural innovations are comprised of practices that increase crop productivity and improve the natural resource base that crops are grown on that improve the resilience of agricultural systems. Access to equipment, farm tools, tree seedlings, seeds, agrochemical inputs, etc. – all which are channeled through private sector entities – are needed for the realization of those innovations. Moreover, dissemination of climate information and improved farming practices needed for climate smart agricultural landscapes, which have the potential to increase the overview of government extension, may be more effectively diffused through the private sector.

The private sector plays the most important role in
financing agricultural investments, innovation and
information dissemination where constraints on
government investment render private sector actions all
the more important. In East Africa, little is known
about the participation of small businesses, independent
traders, farmer organizations, large-scale wholesalers,
marketing boards and cooperatives in climate-smart
agriculture (CSA) and its diffusion to small-scale farmers.
In particular, small companies and the informal sector are
out of view. Yet such information is critical in exploring
how best to harness private sector comparative advantage
to benefit the food security of small-scale farmers in East
Africa impacted by a changing climate. This study is an
attempt to fill this research gap and examines patterns of
and incentives for, private sector investments and
activities in climate-smart agriculture at three pilot
projects implemented by Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS) in Nyando, Kenya; Hoima, Uganda;
and Lushoto, Kenya.

This research uses social network analysis (SNA) to
examine relationships between private sector actors and
farmers to visualize and interpret patterns of networks
for information services for the following areas: climate,
crop and livestock extension, credit and banking, and
legal. It also examines supply chains of agricultural
inputs, as well as agricultural product value chains. Focus
group discussions and surveys were administered to 289
farmers. Local businesses were also interviewed. This
study also includes two packages with national
agricultural organizations to determine if the latter play a
role in facilitating climate-smart agriculture.

Preliminary results suggest that independent traders
dominate trade in all sites and that even though the
supply of inputs is sufficient, farmers often lack access to
credit. Also, distinctive differences exist in terms of the
concentration of business activity amongst local actors and
the diversity of marketable crops produced. The efforts of
Kenya's National Farmer's Federation to establish locally

based farmer's groups is reflected in its highly diversified
groups that grade amongst themselves, in contrast
to Uganda where a select few dominate locally traded
agricultural output. Lushoto's proximity to Dar es Salaam
is evidenced in its high number of independent traders,
and to a lesser extent, locally registered businesses.
Despite its high level of trade, it is also the least food
security of the three sites. The results indicate that while
independent traders focus primarily on the trading of
crops, they do disseminate information relevant to climate
smart agriculture suggesting that efforts to strengthen
this sector is important. Finally, the implications of these
findings for food security are discussed. This study
demonstrates that social network analysis is an important
tool for identifying which private sector actors can be
strategically targeted for strengthening efforts to scale up
climate-smart agriculture and where weaknesses in input
and output supply chains exist.

P-2225-17

Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture along
the Coastal Belt of Bangladesh Using ICT

MA. Rahaman (1); MA. Aslam, s. (2)

(1) ADAMS, Climate Change, Khulna, France; (2) ADAMS,
Executive board, Khulna, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a small country and the highest densely
populated country in the world which is vulnerable to
different types of environmental disasters. The major
disasters and environmental vulnerabilities are floods,
water stagnancy, droughts, cyclone, tidal surge, river
erosion, salinity, extreme temperature and low light
intensity, pests and diseases etc. The vulnerabilities due
to climate change are likely to aggravate more in the
future. These catastrophic events significantly hinder
the agriculture production systems, economic and social
development of the country firstly, through damaging
the crops, livestock, fisheries and agro-forestry, natural
resources, establishments and infrastructures and
secondly, pulling back the on-going developments,
business and trade at local, regional and even global
levels. Costal areas are mostly inhabited by the poor and
disadvantaged groups. Usually coastal belt is flooded from
May/June to November/December. Salinity also restricts
agriculture in the coastal areas. In the Coastal Zone, crops
are lost due to water stagnancy/standing flood water or
tidal surge during July/August-November/December (5-6
months) in wet seasons. On the other hand, during winter
salinity is major threat to agriculture in this area. During
summer season, due to lack of irrigation availability,
farmers can not produce crops in their lands. The aim
of the action research is to ensure food security of ultra
poor climate vulnerable farmers promoting climate-
smart agricultural system using ICT in coastal belt of
Bangladesh. The study was conducted in flood and saline
prone Bagerhat District of South-West Coastal region of
Bangladesh adopting establishment of Climate-smart
Agricultural Information Centre; generating local agro-
meteorochemical, soil and hydrological information;
developing and regular updating customized software
on generated information; dissipating seasonal agro-
meteorochemical, soil and hydrological information relating
to crop suitability using cellular phone, community radio
message and mobile internet; educating farmers on ICT
and climate resilient agricultural system, soil health, flood
& saline tolerant varieties. Based on the empirical findings,
the study suggests that ICTs are powerful tools in climate-
smart agricultural development. Radio, cellular phone and
mobile internet are strong platform in interaction between
farmers and climate change experts. It made a tremendous
improvement in climate-smart agricultural promoton in the
study area.

P-2225-18

Floating Vegetables Gardening: Climate
Smart Agriculture Technology for Food
Security in Tidal Flooded Area of Southern
Bangladesh

MA. Rahman (1)

(1) Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Division of Agronomy, Barisal, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is ranked as one of the most climate-
vulnerable countries in the world, where agriculture is
the most climate sensitive sector. The consequences of
climate change concerned here are: floods, intrusion of soil and water salinity, sea level rise and tropical cyclones, which are major constraints for sustainable agricultural production in Bangladesh. The coastal area covers about 23 percent of the country and lies on the 'front line' of climate change and sea level rise. Most of Bangladesh is less than ten metres above sea level, with almost ten per cent of the country below one metre, making it extremely vulnerable to increasing high tides. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that about 17% of the country's landmass could be inundated with a one metre rise in sea levels in Bangladesh (IPCC's AR5, 2014). Therefore, climate change adaptation measures must be taken for improving the food security of the people. The coastal area adjacent to sea-bank in southern region of Bangladesh remain under submerge condition for a long period (generally from June to December) during monsoon season or even all the year round due to tidal flooding and erratic rainfall. As a result, there is no scope of crop cultivation on this land naturally that hampers the crop production as well as food security severely particularly for the vulnerable poor people. To cope with the situation, the farmers of tidal flooded area have been practicing a climate smart technology of soilless vegetables gardening since two centuries, which is locally known as "Vasoman or dhap chash," meaning "Floating Agriculture" (similar to hydroponics). In considering its innovativeness, a study was conducted using questionnaire tool among the randomly selected farmers (n=150) in three southern districts (Gopalganj, Pirojpur and Barisal) of Bangladesh during 2012-14 to assess the agro-economic performance of floating vegetables gardening and its potential for adaptation to climate change in the country. The floating bed is built up with various types of local materials and the single most important component is water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) but topopana (Pista stratiotes), duvalia (Potamognon alpinus), son ghash (Imperata cylindrica), noll ghash (Hamerthier protensa), aquatic algae (Nitella sp.) wood ash, and dissected coconut fibres are also used for floating bed preparation. A large number of people are involved with this business for supplying the local materials to the farmers. Size of the floating bed varies over district ranges from 15-45 meter long, 1.2-1.5 meter breadth, and 1.0-1.2 meter height. The floating beds lift up with rising of tidal flood water level without any damage. Farmers of Gopalganj district usually grow different vegetable crops (okra, Indian spinach, bottle gourd, bitter gourd, tomato, brinjal, snake gourd, cucumber, ridge gourd, yard long bean, water melon, musk melon, chilli, etc.) on floating bed during monsoon season without using any fertilizers and pesticides. However, seedlings of above stated vegetable crops are produced on the floating bed in Pirojpur and Barisal districts. Seedlings of vegetables are grown for 3 to 5 times/bed/monsoon season (June-October), where 1000-1200 seedlings/bed are grown in a time. Before growing of vegetables and/or seedlings on floating bed, a series of backward tasks (media ball preparation, seed sprouting and set-up, primary nursing etc.) are done mostly by women at homestead nursery. After vegetables cultivation, the decomposed floating beds can be used as compost for

succeeding crop production that saves the use of chemical fertilizers as well as environment. The seedlings are sold at local market of nearby districts for income generation (average net return USD 20/bed). Floating gardening provides fresh vegetables for household consumption of the local people and the surplus amount of the product are sold at the local market to earn some cash particularly for the women. Thus, the technology has the potential to provide a means of income and food security for the millions of small households who have no access to plan land but live close to large bodies of water in southern region. The local innovative technology (floating gardening) may be recognized as agricultural heritage as well as suitable adaptation option in considering its environmental and social aspects in Bangladesh. Therefore, the floating vegetables gardening have been considered as a climate smart agriculture technology for food security in southern region of Bangladesh.

P-2225-19

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
Technique a Tool for Assessing and
Comparing Sustainability of Climate Smart
Agriculture Systems with Conventional
Agricultural Systems

B. Talukder (1); A. Baly-Palmer, (2); G.W. Vanloon (3); KW. Hipel (4); R. Milne (5)

(1) Wilfrid Laurier University, Geography and Environmental Studies, Waterloo, ON, Canada; (2) Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada; (3) Queen's University, School of environmental studies, Kingston, Canada; (4) Waterloo University, System engineering department, Waterloo, Canada; (5) Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of geography and environmental studies, Waterloo, Canada

Assessing and comparing sustainability of climate smart agriculture (CSA) systems with conventional agricultural (CA) systems is essential for future policy and planning of CSA. In this paper we proposed a holistic approach based on MCDA methodological approach that helps to assess and compare CSA with CA. Through a case study from south west coastal region of Bangladesh the sustainability of CSA and CA are assessed and compared. To assess and compare of CSA and CA the indicators were developed based on productivity, stability, efficiency, durability, compatibility and equity categories of sustainability of agricultural systems. To develop indicators, data was gathered through questionnaire survey, secondary information, focus group discussion and key informant interview. The indicators of six categories of sustainability were assessed and compared through weighting and aggregation methods of MCDA. The findings of this research work demonstrate the overall sustainability status of CDA and CA. The results of the study show that this approach has the potential to become a useful framework for agricultural sustainability assessment of CSA.

2226 - Health and climate change : the need for a diversity of approaches

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2226-01

Ecology, climate change and health

S. Morand (1)

(1) CNRS-CIRAD, Environment and Society, Vientiane, France

Abstract not communicated

K-2226-02

Ultraviolet radiations, climate change, and
human health issues 1

M. Boniol (1)

(1) University of Strathclyde Institute of Global Public Health, International prevention research institute, Lyon, France

Abstract not communicated

K-2226-03

Ultraviolet radiations, climate change, and
human health issues 2

M. De Paula Correa (1)

(1) Instituto de recursos naturais (natural resources institute), Itajubá, Brazil

Abstract not communicated

O-0226-01

The Future of Emerging Diseases Under
Climate Change: Current Knowledge and
Synergistic Solutions for Health and Sus-
tainability

C. Machalaba (1); JF. Guégan (1); WB. Karesh (1); P. Daszak (1)
(1) Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, New York, United States of America

Climate change is anticipated to pose serious threats to public health this century. Infectious diseases present an especially relevant health consideration, as they currently cause over one billion human cases and millions of deaths annually. In particular, in many cases emerging infectious disease outbreaks, which may be novel or appear in a new region, are sensitive to climate variability. On a micro level, temperature and precipitation-dependent pathogen development cycles may affect the basic reproductive rates determining pathogen survival and spread in a population, and may similarly affect suitable habitat range of its competent host(s). On a macro level, however, EIDs are dependent on a wide range of factors, and thus climate cannot be viewed in isolation. In the case of EID outbreaks, rapid changes to ecosystems and resulting alteration in composition and abundance of species, as well as anthropogenic practices that are facilitating increased and novel human-animal contact, pose complex biotic dynamics that interface with abiotic climate variability. Given that changes in land use (e.g. deforestation), agricultural production, and global trade and travel are among the leading causes of disease emergence, and overlap with the underlying drivers of climate change, climate change may be a major direct contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, integrated solutions can be taken to address challenges of all three. From the work of the Future Earth ecoHEALTH project and its partners, we highlight findings from ecological niche modeling for disease such as Nipah virus and malaria to examine the different dimensions of EID risks over the coming century, and propose near and long-term solutions that can mitigate known risks and better anticipate future risks. Research gaps remain. Given the high economic impact of recent EID outbreaks, we also identify priority areas of collaboration with other sectors, including on strategies for land use and agricultural production, to minimize future burden of EIDs while simultaneously promoting a sustainable future.

## O-2226-02

### How climate is intertwined with Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana

C. Flamand (1); P. Roucou (1); D. Rousset (2); V. Ardillon (3); M. Fabregue (4); P. Palany (5); J.C. Desenvolens (6); P. Quelou (7); J.E. Fidler (8); P. Roucou (10)

(1) Institut Pasteur de la Veille, Unité d'épidémiologie, Cayenne, French Guiana; (2) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Laboratoire de virologie, Cayenne, French Guiana; (3) Institut de veille sanitaire, Cire antilles-guyane, French Guiana; (4) LIRM-CNRS, Umr 5506, Montpellier, France; (5) Méto-France, Service Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique; (6) Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Direction générale, Sainte-Maurice, France; (7) École des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Lères-umr 1085 irset, Rennes, France; (8) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Unité d'entomologie médicale, Cayenne, French Guiana; (9) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Service de santé des armées, Cayenne, French Guiana; (10) Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Université de bourgoigne, Dijon, France

#### Introduction

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection required through the bite of infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and responsible for major outbreaks in French Guiana. DF transmission is driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental, anthropogenic and climatic factors which result in annual seasonality and multivariable variability. Although the onsets of outbreaks seem to be associated with the start of the rainy season, the mechanisms involved in the occurrence of epidemics are not well understood. With the objectives of explaining the impact of DF outbreaks occurrence in French Guiana, we explored the impact of climatic factors on DF epidemics at different spatial and temporal scales in French Guiana.

#### Methods

For this analysis that covers the 1991–2013 period, we used biologically confirmed DF epidemiological data, climatological parameters including Niño and NAO indices, atmospheric reanalysis gridded data and meteorological stations record including rainfalls, temperatures, relative humidity, sunstroke average and wind force.

We studied the association between incidence of DF and climatic variables to identify temporal predictors

of DF outbreaks. Year-to-year disease variability was investigated by linking atmospheric and oceanic synoptic patterns to the epidemiological regional context. Finally, contextual sequential patterns extraction techniques were used at local scale and weekly time step to identify the most significant climatic factors influencing DF incidence dynamics.

#### Results

From 1991 to 2013, more than 23,600 biologically confirmed DF cases were recorded in French Guiana and 8 major outbreaks were identified. Annual activity was characterized by a seasonal increase of incidence levels during the first quarter of the year. We found that outbreak occurrence can be linked with summer Niño conditions, 6 months before the onset of the outbreak. Furthermore, a statistical model based only on climate indicators indicated that 30% of the disease variance from year-to-year is explained by the dry season rainfall, forecasting epidemic years with a hit rate of 75% and a positive predictive value of 75%.

At regional scale, the outbreak onset in specific areas was frequently associated with a 4–6 week lag with an increase in the relative humidity, high levels of rainfalls and a decrease in temperature. During epidemic period, our findings will be useful to timely target appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and the medical services may become overwhelmed by large epidemics.

#### Conclusion

Using complementary approaches at different geographic scales we explored the role of climate conditions to understand and predict DF outbreaks in French Guiana. Our findings will be useful to timely target appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and the medical services may become overwhelmed by large epidemics.

This first successful step opens new opportunities in the DF risk prediction. Future work will be a more in-depth focus on influence of future climate conditions according to different scenarios of climate change on epidemiologic patterns.

## O-2226-03

### The PALUCLIM project. Impacts of climatic factors on the production of malaria vectors in the rural Sahel: Application to the Nouna region (Burkina-Faso)

C. Vignolles (1); C. Viel (2); V. Machault (3); R. Sauerborn (4); P. Dambach (5); A. Sie (5); C. Rogier (6); Y. Tourre (7)

(1) CNES (Centre d'Influence de la Famine); (2) Méto-France, Toulouse, France; (3) Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France; (4) Heidelberg University, Institute of public health, Heidelberg, Germany; (5) Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso; (6) Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (7) Colombia University, Climate Physics /LDEO, Palisades, United States of America

Emerging/re-emerging infectious diseases with high epidemiological potential risks, lead public health managers to adapt their policies. Adaptation includes early knowledge of risks. The latter requires new tools to prevent re-emerging risks.

Infectious diseases such as Rift valley fever or malaria are closely tied to climatic and/or natural and anthropogenic environmental factors among which some could be identified using remote-sensing. Then they can be assimilated into climate models thus allowing re-emerging risks' assessment. The French Spatial Agency (CNC) with its partners has developed a conceptual approach so-called Tele-epidemiology based upon studying climate-environment-health relationships with applicable products.

This multidisciplinary approach is based upon the study of the key mechanisms favoring the surge and spread of those diseases. Analysis of those processes is a key step in the development of new and original risk mapping using Earth observation satellite data. The primary mission is to show how those adapted space products could contribute to diseases surveillance policy and improve Early Warning Systems (EWS). The overall objective is to attempt predicting and mitigating public health impacts from epidemics.
This approach has been applied with success for malaria in Burkina Faso through the Palucim project. This project was to apply the Tele-epidemiology conceptual approach linking climate, environment and vector-borne diseases such as malaria in the Sahelian region of Nouna (Burkina Faso). It was proposed to study the impacts of environment/climate variability on malaria entomological risk, a first step for risks of malaria outbreaks and then to analyze impacts from risks' forecasting.

The project objectives were to provide and validate dynamic entomological risk maps, then to study adaptation processes for controlling management, i.e., addressing the predicted risk, and to study the impacts of climate variability (from seasonal to low frequency climatic signals, including tendencies and climate change) on risks' forecasting.

To achieve these objectives, the Palucim project integrated efforts from several teams and partners: CNES, Météo-France, Public Health Institute of the University Hospital of Heidelberg (Germany), Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (Burkina Faso) representing the Health Ministry. As such it benefited from previous expertise and results obtained by the different partners in entomology, climate, environmental sciences, and in Tele-epidemiology. In this work it was shown that:

* based upon satellite (SPOT 5) and in-situ data it was possible to build an operational model to predict location of larvae sites and distribute dynamic maps on larval productivity for local villages;

* based upon the larval productivity maps for targeted larvicidal strategy could be implemented.

The added-values from the use of entomological risk maps were obvious in terms of additional element such as economical savings for decision makers. The use of larval productivity maps for larvicide treatment was perceived locally as extremely positive.

As of today, rainfall is the main meteorological driving parameter for the knowledge of vectors' density (which is used for the evaluation of entomological risk maps). The malaria entomological risk as a function of the weather/climate spatio-temporal variability was undertaken. An impact model was developed based upon an existing model (Craig's model), particularly efficient when resources are limited. The climate analyses were done for different temporal scales (i.e., seasonal, quasi-biennial, inter-annual, low-frequencies and climate change). The model could thus be used immediately on an operational mode. It was found that the new main driving factor for the upcoming years will be the temperature increase leading to a decrease of malaria risks (for at least the next 50 years), knowing that models have a hard time to predict rainfall variability in the near future.

## O-2226-04

# Will climate warming decrease winter mortality in Europe?

J. Ballester (1) ; JM. Robine (2) ; FR. Herrmann (3) ; X. Rodó (1)

(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain;

(2) INSERM, DémoGRAPHie et santé, Montpellier, France;

(3) Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva medical school and university hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity and degree of adaptation of human societies to warming temperatures is however a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Recent studies have pointed to improvements in housing, standards of living and healthcare systems as primary factors explaining the progressively decreasing year-to-year association between excess winter deaths and winter temperatures in economically developed societies such as Europe and the United States.

Here we show the link between temperature and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 regions in western Europe, which are subsequently used to characterize the spatial picture of human vulnerability to climate conditions in winter. Our analyses show that only the United Kingdom, the Benelux and northern France have successfully taken steps towards the adaptation to harsh winters, and that the Mediterranean and eastern countries, including Germany,

Austria and Switzerland, still remain sensitive to intense cold seasons. Results however reveal that the countries exposed to the most extreme climatological conditions in winter are the least vulnerable to cold spell episodes, while the incidence of these events is again particularly damaging in the temperature regions of southern Europe.

The different sensitivity of European regions to cold temperatures highly depend on the kind of adaptation strategies that each country has already implemented, and reveals the actions that could potentially be taken in order to increase the overall life expectancy. In the light of our results, the European society will remain exposed to the natural and anthropogenically-induced climate variability in winter unless a substantial degree of adaptation to both intense cold spells and harsh winters takes place.

## O-2226-05

# Achieving Health Dividends from Climate Change Mitigation Policies

A. Haines (1) ; J. Milner (1) ; R. Green (2) ; A. Dangour (2) ; P. Wilkinson (1)

(1) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Social and Environmental Health Research, London, United Kingdom; (2) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Population health, London, United Kingdom

There is growing interest in the range of co-benefits from well designed policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Importantly, many mitigation-related health impacts may accrue sooner than the benefits projected from reducing the magnitude of climate change and are subject to less uncertainty because the pathways linking the policy measures, changes in exposures and subsequent health outcomes are quite well established from epidemiological studies. A range of studies published over recent years have suggested significant net health benefits across several mitigation strategies in both high and low income countries. Studies estimating the ancillary health effects of mitigation strategies (while acknowledging that co-harms also may result) use a range of modeling approaches, and draw expertise from public health, agriculture, environmental sciences, nutrition, urban planning, architecture and other disciplines to generate policy-relevant outputs. Reductions in fine particulate air pollution, with major benefits to health, result from policies to reduce fossil fuel use - particularly reduced coal and diesel combustion. In the transport sector, policies which increase active travel (walking and cycling) would also reduce CO2 emissions and lead to substantial benefits, including for cardiovascular health, which would greatly outweigh increased risk of road traffic injuries. Interventions which increase energy efficiency in the housing sector have the potential to lead to considerable health benefits through improved internal temperatures during winter and protection against outdoor air pollution, as long as compensatory ventilation is provided to reduce exposure to indoor-generated pollutants. Relatively modest changes to dietary patterns can lead to substantial benefits for health and also reduce GHG emissions. However, drastic GHG reductions may require unpalatable modification of current diets. This presentation will give an overview of recent studies that have estimated the magnitude of health co-benefits from strategies to reduce carbon dioxide and short lived climate pollutants in the energy, transport, housing and food and agriculture sectors in high and low income settings. It will also discuss key methodological issues in designing studies. It will outline how valuation of health and other co-benefits can help offset the costs of mitigation policies and potentially make them more attractive to decision makers. Finally it will also consider potential co-harms of poorly designed policies and how such risks can be minimised.

## 2226-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2226-01

# Urbanization, Climate Change & Human Health A Study on Four Megacities of Urban India

J. Basu (1)

(1) West Bengal State University, Economics, Kolkata, West
The World Bank in 2002 reported that in poor countries as much as 80 per cent of future economic growth occurred in cities and 60 per cent of the world's population will be residing in cities by 2030. The increase in the average temperatures in the megacities in India is accompanied by the increase in population. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has focused that by 2100 the global temperature would increase by 1.8 °C-4 °C and which has effect on increased heat-related mortality and morbidity and greater frequency of infectious diseases like diarrhea, cholera and other bacterial diseases. The paper attempts to address the impact of precipitation in relation to human mortality pattern in India and the distribution of disease vectors like malaria, dengue and diarrhea diseases at the four megacities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai of India. In addition, the paper also attempts to establish the impact of urbanization on climatic variables like temperature and rainfall. The objectives of the paper are four fold. First, is to examine trends in summer temperature, monsoon temperature, post monsoon temperature and winter temperature at four megacities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai of India. Second, is to examine the impact of precipitation on the disease vector like malaria in India. Third, is to examine how climate change affects the distribution of disease vectors in the four megacities of India. Fourth, is to establish the relationship between urbanization and temperature change at four mega cities of India.

The paper utilizes time-series data on temperature and precipitation, number of malaria deaths from the various reports of Indian Metrological Department for period 1978-2008. The analysis of trends in temperature at four largest cities is based on data for the period 1901-1991. Regression analysis is done to estimate the effects of precipitation on malaria cases. As the data set comprises time series in nature, before doing regression analysis we have applied unit root test and the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF test) is employed for this purpose. After conforming the data are stationary we have applied regression analysis to show the impact of precipitation on malaria death.

In the univariate case, it is possible to view the stationarity of {Yt} as being dependent on the magnitude (a1-1), that is,

$$Y_t = a_1 Y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t \quad \text{------------------} \quad (1)$$

$$\Delta Y_t = \gamma Y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t \quad \text{Where } \gamma = a_1 - 1 \quad \text{------------------} \quad (2)$$

In the presence of trend of drift the Dickey and Fuller equation can be written as

$$\Delta Y_t = a_0 + \gamma Y_{t-1} + a_2 t + \epsilon_t \quad \text{------------------} \quad (3)$$

where a 0 and a 2 t represent the drift and time trend component respectively.

The result of the unit root test shows that death due to malaria (MDT) and precipitation (Rt) are stationary at the first difference. After checking stationary test we have regressed death due to malaria on precipitation.

The regression equation is given below

$$\text{Log } K_t = b \text{ Log } Z_t$$

$$\text{Where } K_t = \text{Log } \text{MDt} - \text{Log } \text{MD } t-1$$

$$Z_t = \text{Log } R_t - \text{Log } R t-1$$

The result shows that there is a positive and significant relation between precipitation and death rate due to malaria. The higher is the precipitation and higher is the death rate due to malaria. Most of the trends showed positive change in temperature with different rates in different seasons. In some cases, the trends showed asymmetry. The results of the impact of urbanization on temperature revealed that there is a positive relation between the increase in temperature change and the increase in population change on the annual scale. But on seasonal scale this is applicable for monsoon, post-monsoon and winter season and not for summer season. The paper has important policy implication for improving water quality.

## Scalling heat-mortality relationships recorded in cities to the global scale

L. Costa, (1); L. Krummenauer, (1); A. Holsten, (1); J. Kropp, (1)

(1) PIK, Potsdam, Germany

A large number of epidemiologic studies relating air temperature and mortality in cities have been conducted but findings not generalized to continental scales. The studies usually culminate with the determination of a threshold-mortality temperature (TMTs), that is, a temperature value beyond which recorded mortality in a city deviates from the normal expected.

In this work we have compiled and homogenized threshold-mortality temperatures (TMTs) found in peer-reviewed literature for circa 90 cities worldwide. The chosen unit for homogenization was mean apparent temperature, since it is a composite measure of temperature and humidity. A multivariate linear regression between TMT's and a set of 12 independent variables was preformed. The set included several measures of the climatologic features of a city, as well as physical urban features city density, size and friction factor. The city size was measured in km$^2$. The linear regression exercise returned 30-year mean amplitude and 30-year average temperature as the best explanatory variables (adjusted R2 = 0.66). Results point therefore for a significant role of climate alone in shaping the ability of urban population in sustaining heat-stress, while the remaining variability is likely attributed to factors such as demographics or health care standards.

In order to reflect the existence of a physiologic limit for temperature, a sigmoid function (S-shape curve) was fitted to the TMT's using the same set of independent variables as for the case of the linear regression. 30-year mean of the hottest month returned the fit with the lowest residual standard error. The saturation value for the sigmoid function, that is, an approximation of the physiological limit (or adaptability limit), was set and 45 degrees, in reflection to the upper limit of temperatures recorded at permanently habitable regions in the world and further evidences from literature. The robustness of the sigmoid function was tested for subsets of TMT's from different climatic zones. The fit preformed best at sub-tropical-wet climates, and worst at humid-continental climates. Climate projections of temperature were superimposed with the results of the sigmoid fit in order to highlight the regions where the largest deviation from air temperature to TMT's in the part of the year allows for the exploration of several «adaptability» scenarios by varying the speed with which a region can «move» along the fit function.

There is still a considerable amount of variance in TMTs not captured by our approach but we have successfully captured the role of climate in shaping the adaptive capacity of the urban population. We also moved closer into bridging the persistent gap between research undertaken at the case-study and the need for global generalizations of results. Finally, following the proposed function, first order approximations of TMT's can be made for regions where temperature-mortality studies are absent.

## Climate change effects on the erythemal and vitamin D weighted UV daily doses in South America and Antarctica: Impacts on the health of populations

M. De Paula Correa (1); G. Moraes (1); S. Godin Beekman (2); E. Mahé, (3)

(1) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Instituto de recursos naturais (natural resources institute), Itajubá, Brazil; (2) CNRS, IPSL/LATMOS, Guiancourt, France; (3) Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Departement de dermatologie, Argenteuil, France

Recent studies show that the ozone layer will be recovered until 2050. This is a significant result of the Montreal Protocol which points out the success of this environment protection agreement. However, climate change projections show that the total ozone content will have a relevant increase until the end of this century, mainly at higher latitudes. On one hand, this increase can reduce the
adverse effects of UV radiation overexposure. On the other hand, the decrease of UV availability at the surface can reduce the synthesis of vitamin D among the inhabitants of these regions. In this study, we provide ethylmal (DoseE) and vitamin D (DoseD) weighted UV daily doses estimates for ten different sites of South America and Antarctica. Our calculations are based on the ozone forecasts provided by four climate models reported on the last IPCC report. Unlike previous works, our study evaluates the impact on the daily dose of radiation received. Thus, these results can be used as an important tool for the health studies on the excess or lack of sun exposure. The first results show significant UV radiation at Southern sites. At 30°S and DoseE and DoseD can be reduced between 5 and 7%, respectively, until the end of this century if the anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the time. At 50°S, these reductions increase to 12 and 21%, respectively, and, in Antartica they will possibly exceed 15 and 30%, respectively. We did not observe significant variations at the equatorial sites. In this talk we also discuss the impact of these UV availability reductions on the population's health.

P-2226-04

Evolution of surface UV radiation in relation to ozone depletion and climate change

S. Godin Beekmann (1); M. De Paula Correa (2); E. Mahé, (3)
(1) CNRS, IPSL/LATMOS, Guyancourt, France; (2) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Instituto de recursos naturais (natural resources institute), Itajubá, Brazil; (3) Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Departement de dermatologie, Argenteuil, France

Exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation is known to be a risk factor for several diseases such as skin cancers and cataracts. On the other hand, a number of studies have described the benefits of UV exposure in relation to the synthesis of vitamin D and prevention of several diseases. The evolution of surface UV radiation has been under scrutiny in the last decades due to the discovery of ozone depletion in the middle atmosphere. Atmospheric ozone is the main atmospheric absorber of UV-B radiation (280 - 320 nm spectral range) and its depletion has raised concerns about the protection of human populations, living organisms and ecosystems against dangerous UV radiation. The rapid understanding in the 1980s of the main processes involved in stratospheric ozone destruction, which incriminated halogen substances emitted by human activities, led to the regulation of the emission of these ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Since then, ODS abundances have continued to increase up to the mid or end of the nineties, depending on latitude, and have now started to decrease slowly. As a consequence, the ozone layer has stabilized and shows signs of recovery. While the decrease of ODS content is expected to be the dominant cause of the future long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone, climate change effects and natural variability of the atmosphere still hinder the unambiguous detection of the recovery expected from ODS decrease.

Chemistry–Climate models indicate that minimum levels of stratospheric ozone have been reached in the early 21st century. The recovery of the ozone layer is forecasted in a period ranging between 2015 and 2030 in the northern hemisphere and between 2030 and 2040 in the southern hemisphere, with a disappearance of the Antarctic ozone hole after 2050. Due to climate change induced effects on transport processes and temperature climatology in the middle atmosphere, models simulate a super–recovery of ozone in the polar and mid–latitude regions and an under recovery in the tropics. The future evolution of ozone will have an impact on surface UV at global scale and on the health related UV doses.

This presentation will review the latest results on the past and future long-term evolution of global ozone and surface UV. Projected changes in clear–sky erythral and vitamin D effective UV doses for Europe over the period 2006 to 2100, based on CMIP5 simulation of total ozone and aerosols will also be presented.

P-2226-05

Planning for the Impacts of Climate
Change on Human Health: A Focus on
Cities

K. Haddadimoghaddam (1)

(1) International Sturgeon Research Institute, Marine Ecology,
City:Rasht , Province:Guilan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Cities are faced with the task of planning for the present and future growth needs of their citizens. Climate change places pressure on cities ranging from rural to urban migration, causing increased demands for housing, to physical changes from flooding and heat waves that challenges the ability to plan. Research and practice have demonstrated the capacity of cities to address the economic and physical impacts of climate change. Less understood is how cities can address the impacts of climate change on human health and well-being; which ranges from death and injury caused by extreme temperatures and weather events, to malnutrition caused by drought. Cities have role in reducing the impacts on human health and well-being. In the 1980s, the Healthy Cities movement aimed to make cities supportive of human health but success was inhibited by a lack of coherence. However, the core ideas of cities: developing action strategies to promote health, being centers for human action, and having an unmatched potential for producing healthy human beings hold today. The challenge for cities now is identifying the causal relationships between human health and climate change, for which there are many. Thus it is the objective of the research that is to be undertaken to conduct a critical analysis of the policy actions of cities in their efforts to address the impacts of climate change on human health through policies and plans.

P-2226-06

Seasonal Variations in Emergency Depart-
ment Visits of Schizophrenic Patients in
Sofia, Bulgaria

Z. Spasova (1)

(1) National Center of Public Health and Analyses, Health
Policies Analyses, Sofia, Bulgaria

Climate change is making hot summer days hotter and
shorter. The increase in hot days is due to heat waves. And the heat is
causing more than just discomfort – as temperatures rise,
so are the number of illnesses, emergency room visits, deaths.
Among the risk groups are young children and
elderly people, people with chronically diseases especially
of the cardiovascular and respiratory system, the poor,
people who are working at open environment and those
living in big cities where the effect of ‘heat island’ makes
the heat waves more severe.

It's little studied the effect of hot weather and the effect of the season on people with mental disorders and specifically schizophrenia (as one of the mostly common and severe mental disorders). Schizophrenia is characterized by enormous societal and economic costs due to the extensive therapeutic care and loss of economic productivity, as well as personal suffering and stigma which often affect the patient and his/her family for most of a patient's life. As for schizophrenia patients, there is still no cure, the research of etiologic factors, particularly environmental ones that could be avoided and used in effective prevention programs, is essential.

Many studies have demonstrated evidence of seasonal patterns in the incidence of psychotic disorders, and schizophrenia in particular. It is known since the time of Esquiroli (1838) that schizophrenia patients admitted in mental hospitals increases a summer months and decreases in winter. Most of the studies for seasonal distribution of hospital admissions in schizophrenia also report summer peaks, some of these for female patients only. With respect to the factors responsible for the summer excess of admissions, Myers and Davies have suggested a rise in ambient temperature; Parker and Walter, the increasing luminance; and Carney et al., the length of day. Social factors, such as summer holidays, 'are unlikely to have an effect' (Takei et al.).

While the problem of seasonal admissions of patients with schizophrenia has been widely discussed in Western Europe, America and Australia, in Eastern Europe it
has been neglected. We are not aware of any published research on this subject in Bulgaria, which makes the present study important as a contribution to the scientific literature on the problem in the country and in the South East Europe region. Its findings could also raise the awareness of the problem of health care management for psychiatric patients in SEE countries besides Bulgaria.

The purpose of this study was to reveal the seasonal distribution of emergency department visits of schizophrenic patients in Sofia, Bulgaria.

We collected daily data for visits of patients with schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders in the emergency center of the regional dispenser for mental disorders in the city of Sofia for the period 1998-2003. The total number of emergency visits was 5723 (mean daily visits: 5.04±2.4). T-test was used to compare the monthly and seasonal distribution of visits.

The season with the highest levels of emergency visits was summer, and the lowest levels were observed in

winter (P<0.0001). Spring and autumn had intermediate values close to the mean value, and significantly differentiated between winter values. The month with the highest admission rates was September, followed by May and the three summer's months. The lowest levels were observed in December, October and January, with statistically significant differences observed between the values of all the three months. Differences between July values compared with December and October values were significant, but not with January values.

The study showed significant seasonal and monthly differences in emergency schizophre-nics' visits. The data confirm the outcome of similar studies conducted in countries with temperate climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The results are particularly relevant against the backdrop of rising ambient temperatures and the tendency of increasing of the frequency of heat waves, observed in recent decades in Bulgaria. These results could prove useful for psychiatrists, public health specialists, and governmental authorities dealing with team planning and prevention programs in the field of public health.

# 2228 - Removing Barriers to Climate Change Mitigation at City Level

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2228-01

#### Title not communicated

A. Patt (1)

(1) ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract not communicated

### K-2228-02

#### Title not communicated

P. Buergi (1)

(1) South Pole Group, Switzerland

Abstract not communicated

### O-2228-01

#### Making Cities Resilient to Climate Change: Identifying 'win-win' interventions

H. Dulal (1)

(1) Abt Associates, International Economic Growth, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America

Urbanization has truly become a global phenomenon. From a mere 10 percent in 1900, the percentage of global population living in urban areas now exceeds 50 percent. With rapid urbanization, urban emissions have also increased over the decades. Cities currently account for about 75 percent of global energy consumption and 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Even though the greenhouse gas emission footprints of cities have been increasing over the years, for the cities in developing countries, greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is still not the priority. It is a «low-priority» issue, if anything. Given the resource constraints and competing local priorities, developing countries' cities are more interested in dealing with rapidly deteriorating air and water quality than use their scarce resources for urban climate change mitigation. The existing reluctance, however, can be overcome if cities are made aware of the fact that bundling of policy tools can actually help them overcome their perpetual struggle against increasing urban environmental externalities and contain rising urban greenhouse gas emissions. The proposed paper intends to identify sectors and policy instruments, adoption of which, will not only ensure the reduction in rising urban environmental externalities in developing countries, but also help contain rapidly growing urban greenhouse gas emissions and provide climate change adaptation co-benefits.

### O-2228-02

#### 'Nudging' the city towards sustainability; analysis of leverage points for reduction of urban footprint

FM. Khan (1)

(1) WWF Luc Hoffman Institute, Lund, Sweden

Since 2010 the Earth Hour City Challenge (EHCC) has been encouraging cities to submit data on carbon reduction commitments, strategies and investments that allow assessment of urban governance vision and impact over the years, and has been collecting this data through the Climate Carbon Registry. Cities meeting certain criteria of data availability and reduction commitment become Earth Hour City Challenge candidates and the most ambitious cities compete for the title Earth Hour Capital of the year. In the 2014 iteration of the challenge more than one hundred and sixty cities from seventeen are reporting on hundreds of reduction commitments and thousands of mitigation actions from all sectors of urban governance. As the primary habitats of human beings and one of the two most important governance units of our civilization along with the nation state, cities must take a leading role in the transformation towards sustainability and reduction of human footprint. However as complex systems, cities exhibit both, a behavioral inertia that is borne of the dense network of interactions between people, infrastructure and intangibles that define the city, as well as the ability to undergo a rapid transformation akin to a face change in complex systems when faced with the right intervention at the right leverage point. In order to navigate a successful transformation to sustainability, meet the relevant targets such as sustainable development goals and stay within the planetary boundaries while improving standards of living for the global poor, we need to identify these points at which a phase change can be triggered in urban systems; these would be the leverage points where large gains in footprint reduction can be obtained with minimum effort interventions. These high leverage points emerge from research in unexpected disciplines as well from investigations at the interaction of disciplines that do not traditionally converse as these points lie concealed in latent correlations. To identify these points thus a multi-disciplinary, consultative, framework approach is needed. The EHCC data has been analyzed to identify high leverage opportunities for reduction in urban footprint. The research uses the framework and data collected as an objective function to identify leverage points for maximizing footprint reduction using various strategies. Various stakeholders from practice and academia have been consulted to provide a survey of strategies for urban footprint reduction from various disciplines. This has included evidence collected from practical policy and technological implementations in the disciplines of transport, housing, waste management, local food production and energy, summary of theoretical and empirical findings from behavioral economics and psychology that can help devise policy interventions to
'nudge' citizen behavior towards footprint reduction, and analysis of theoretical developments in the science of urban complexity that can inform identification of high impact leverage points. A framework has been developed and correlations explored using a preliminary network mapping exercise.

## 2228-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2228-01

#### Urban and peri-urban forestry in the face of climate change in Cameroon: challenges and new perspectives for sustainability

**GH. Chekuimo (1)**

(1) Centre for Research in Economics and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Cameroon, Agriculture and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon

Urban forestry is a relatively new, multidisciplinary approach in international forest research. Rapid urbanization and climate change raise several issues for those who are responsible for developing policies and making decisions at local, national and international levels. Urban trees provide a significant contribution to building resilient cities and improving health and well-being, such as through mitigating natural disasters,

providing ecosystem services, reducing energy costs or increasing property values. However, urban and peri-urban forest ecosystems in Cameroon are steadily increasingly under pressure from their city populations. This study assessed the status of urban and peri-urban forestry, evaluated the effect of population growth on urban forests landscape and designed innovative strategies that will ensure sustainability and improvement of urban living environment. It was investigated through secondary data, field investigation, enquiries to relevant stakeholders, direct assessment and observations of urban and peri-urban forest landscapes in Cameroon. These analyses highlight the extreme diversity of environmental resources from urban forests in Cameroon. Rapid urban population growth, limited land area, and poor implementation of government policies are some factors affecting urban forests development and are responsible for vicious cycle of environmental degradation in urban areas in Cameroon. The results contribute elements for strategic and operational planning. Urban forestry management is an important strategy to improve urban living and working environments. There is a need to highlight successful strategies and actions concerning the management of urban and peri-urban forests. Involvement of all stakeholders and users in reflections and in the implementation of policies concerning the management of the urban and peri-urban forests should be adopted and advocated to ensure sustainable development and to ensure that cities, trees and forests grow together to meet the needs of urbanized societies.

## 2229 - Cities and their environments: Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation strategies across scales from rural to urban

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-2229-01

##### Sustainable Futures in Rural and Peri-Urban Areas

**D. Purnamita (1) ; J. Morton (2)**

(1) Institute of Economic Growth, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Unit, Delhi, India; (2) University of Greenwich, Greenwich, United Kingdom

This keynote will focus on the possible impacts from climate change on rural areas and rural-urban continuums, with special emphasis on the implications for human settlements. It will consider alternatives for building resilience for the future in recognition of a two-way relationship between sustainable economic development and climate change. A wide range of human and ecosystem interactions define the risks from climate change, in many parts of the world, including the developing and the least developed, where multiple stressors co-exist. Illustrations to highlight these aspects will be drawn from material from the AR5 report of the IPCC. The opportunities and challenges in bridging the gaps between quantitative and qualitative dimensions, of integration across scales and timelines is also to be discussed given the multiple sources of vulnerability and differences in development across regions of the world. In this context, the presentation will dwell on the economic valuation of climate change impacts which requires moving from pure cost benefit analysis to multi-metric evaluations with consideration of the risk and uncertainty dimensions. Non-market values, inequities, behavioral biases, ancillary costs and benefits of response options and aggregation of values across multiple contexts call for innovative and less conventional approaches.

### K-2229-02

#### Cooling Our Cities: International efforts to implement heat island countermeasures

**H. Akbari (1)**

(1) Concordia University, BCEE, Montreal, Canada

As the threat of climate change becomes more pronounced, a number of scientists have proposed supplementing the

full range of mitigation efforts with geo-engineering (manipulation of the Earth's environment) to quickly respond to this threat. Many proposed geo-engineering techniques are novel and unproven. One simple technology has been in practice for thousands of years: changing the solar reflectance (albedo) of the built surface. "Cool roofs" and "cool pavements" should be among the first geo-engineering techniques used to combat global warming.

Increasing the solar reflectance of the urban surface reduce its solar heat gain, lowers its temperatures, and decreases its outflow of thermal infrared radiation into the atmosphere. This process of "negative radiative forcing" can help counter the effects of global warming. We estimate that resurfacing conventional dark roofs with a cool white material that has a long-term solar reflectance of 0.60 or more increases its solar reflectance by at least 0.40. Returfiting 100 m² of roof has an effect on radiative forcing equivalent to a one-time offset of 10 tonnes of CO2. Similarly, the solar reflectance of pavement can be raised on average by about 0.15, the equivalent of a 4 t reduction in CO2 per 100 m2.

In addition, cool roofs reduce cooling-energy use in air conditioned buildings and increase comfort in unconditioned buildings; cool roofs and cool pavements mitigate summer urban heat islands, improving outdoor air quality and comfort. Installing cool roofs and cool pavements in cities worldwide is a compelling win-win-win activity that can be undertaken immediately, outside of international negotiations to cap CO2 emissions. We review the status of cool roof and cool pavements technologies, policies, and programs in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. We propose an international campaign to use solar reflective materials when roofs and pavements are built or resurfaced in temperate and tropical regions.

This presentation will discuss the technologies and international policies related to development and utilization of cool construction materials.

### K-2229-03

#### Towards an integrated model for more sustainable urban (re-)planning

**D. Robinson (1)**

(1) University of Nottingham, Architecture and built environment, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Sustainability has become a byword. Whilst it is understood that we are now mainly an urban species, that the overwhelming majority of economic activity and associated resource use takes place in cities, some surprisingly basic questions remain unanswered: How do we define city sustainability? How do we then measure it to determine how sustainable a city is? Which are the most effective strategies and policy measures to bring about positive change? How do we model them to evaluate their effectiveness? How do we then implement them? These are some of the questions currently being tackled by the Laboratory of Urban Complexity and Sustainability (LUCAS) at Nottingham. Positioned within this landscape, I will focus in this talk on the challenges we face in developing a platform for modelling the principle urban resource flows, in a sufficiently spatially sensitive manner to support the testing of scenarios to minimise these flows (or some measure(s) of them) in the future and how cities might transition to these target future states.

## O-2229-01

### Climate Change in Rural Areas: Reflections

J. Morton (1)

(1) Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Livelihoods and Institutions, Chatham, Maritime, Kent, United Kingdom

The Contribution of Working Group 2 to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) included for the first time a Chapter on Rural Areas. This presentation will be a reflection on the writing of that chapter by one of its two Co-ordinating Lead Authors. Some of the questions posed will be as follows:

* Is there something specific about rural areas (or "rurality") that can make them an object of study in the context of climate change, along the continuum from low-income to high-income countries?

* How can the different experiences of poverty and ill-being in rural and urban contexts, as they exist and as they will be exacerbated by climate change, best be compared in a non-reductionist manner?

* How best can we conceptualise and research interactions between adaptation and mitigation in rural areas?

How best can we conceptualise and research linkages between rural and urban areas and the ways they will be impacted, and will adapt, under climate change?

## O-2229-02

### Efficiency of Waste Management of Different Cities in the Philippines: Assessment and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies

J. Pagunsan (1); K. Shimada, (2)

(1) Quezon City, Philippines; (2) Ritsumeikan University, Economics, Kusatsu City, Japan

Rapid increase in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) particularly in the waste management processes resulted in socio-economic changes and various environmental issues in major cities of the world. Increasing trends of GHGs emission was due to the rapid urbanization and booming economic development in these cities particularly in developing countries like Philippines. Globally, the risks and uncertainties of climate change tend to be more complex and costly which can aggravate the threat to human civilization and economic development of a particular country. These issues hand calls for a comprehensive evaluation and consideration for the progress and sustainable future in a more globalized society. Hence, this paper evaluated the efficiency of waste management of different cities in the Philippines towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The two-stage approach was utilized in quantifying and understanding the efficiency of different cities in the Philippines. First, efficiency of every city was done using Data Envelopment Analysis. Having the efficiency scores at hand, efficiency measurement was expanded using Tobit Regression Analysis to further analyze the potential influence of environmental factors such as land area, number of

barangays (villages), poverty incidence, environmental governance and presence of disposal facility in the implementation of waste management in different cities. Finally, this paper will conclude with the analysis and discussion on its implication to climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

## O-2229-03

### Responding to Changing in Climate: Who Act the Most in Greater Jakarta

SA. Dalimunthe (1); IA. Perdana Putri (1)

(1) Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Research center for Population, Jakarta, Indonesia

Over the past decade, increased knowledge coupled with economic incentives, subsidies and related interventions has raised awareness and concern about climate change in vulnerable Greater Jakarta. This paper will analyze index and status of responsiveness of each region within Greater Jakarta towards climate change by means of Climate Change Effectivity Response Assessment (CCERA) using multidimensional scaling technique (MDS). Total data used is 126 respondent. Overall, the index shown Bogor responding the most to climate change. Looking through each dimension, it is likely Bogor is the highest in knowledge dimensions (61.14), community resources (63.72) and level of alertness (87.26). While Bekasi holds the highest index in individual resources (71.47). The most influencing attribute regarding to index and status response are willingness to take out insurance, willingness to change lifestyle (knowledge), sign up for early warning alerts and disaster preparedness plan (individual resources), talk to other about taking action and feel involved in decision making (communal resources) and don't know to response and care about natural environment (level of alertness). The result of this study will provide evidence based to support more ambitious regional response to climate change based on the status of responsiveness of each region in Greater Jakarta.

## O-2229-04

### Continued Growth, Sustainability and Climate Change in America's Energy Capital

K. Lester (1)

(1) Rice University, Shell Center for Sustainability, Houston, TX, United States of America

Planners are uniquely situated to contribute a comprehensive approach to evaluating and solving development issues (Myers, 1997). Many of the less discipline specific issues in addressing climate change such as understanding long-range consequences of present actions; understanding needs for disadvantaged populations; and managing the exchange of confluences between the built environment and natural environment fall naturally under the toolbox of planners. Methods and tools in planning are robust enough for this challenge (Talen, 1996). New research is taking a critical look at what approaches should and are being conducted across the US (Jepson & Haines, 2014). This is exactly the type of environment that fosters more integration of planning for climate change into the routine high visibility planning products developed for and by cities. This presentation will deliver findings from a study addressing the question of limits to growth and climate change impacts in America's largest energy metropolis.

The City of Houston, Texas is the 4th most populous city in the United States, with a population of 2.1 million persons as of the 2010 US population census. Houston is the most sprawling city of the top 5 most populous, with a land area of approximately 1,000 square miles, which is larger than New York and Chicago combined. Less than 10% of the workers use public transportation to get to work. Houston has only 7.5 miles of passenger rail, while New York has 2,047 miles and Chicago has 224 miles. This sprawling city is also home to the Port of Houston, which is the largest port in the US for foreign trade and imports. It supports the largest petrochemical manufacturing area in the world. It is estimated that 1 million jobs are supported by port activity and approximately $178 billion in economic activity in Texas (Port of Houston Authority, 2013). This evidence shows that Houston is a sprawling city, with a dependence on private automobiles and an economy heavily influenced by development and trade in petrocarbons. This city is a challenge to planning for climate change and an ideal