concession programs from 2003 to 2007. Relying on a more comprehensive panel dataset from 2004 to 2011, our study looks at the capital cost of wind projects.

Second, our quantitative analysis contributes to the current debate on a post Kyoto regime of global climate finance. We propose a new mechanism by which upfront learning investment sets up a consistency between climate finance and technology target, and thereby the leverage role of climate finance can be monitored at the sectoral level. This proposal can address two main challenges of climate finance. Uncertainty of carbon revenue calls into question the result-based approach of climate finance, which only intervenes at the project operational stage, and therefore does not generate upfront financing, much needed notably in the developing world. Another feature of global climate finance is to balance the fairness of efforts sharing. Moral hazard can generate perverse incentive for firms and governments to delay or relax environment and energy policies (Millard-Ball and Kerr 2012). In fact, the debate on the additionality of climate finance has been triggered with respect to China's wind power projects supported by a policy mix including feed-in tariff (FIT) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (Liu 2014). Actually, new market mechanisms for Post-Kyoto shift towards a sectoral approach of cooperation with most of developing countries (WFC 2013; Deutsche Bank 2011). Most of these initiatives are still at a conceptual level, while our analysis is quantitative and evidence-based, and thus provides a useful support to these initiatives.

## P-3302-07

### Electrochemical systems for a circular energy economy and carbon reuse: the SOFCOM pilot plant

M. Santarelli (1) ; A. Lanzini (1) ; M. Gandiglio (1)

(1) Politecnico di Torino, Energy, Torino, Italy

In the framework of the EU project SOFCOM (FCH JU Grant agreement no: 278798) POLITO has developed a proof-of-concept devoted to demonstrate the high interest of electrochemical systems based on high temperature fuel cells to operate as the core of future energy systems with renewable fuels and multi-product configuration, with particular care on CO2 management through C re-utilization in different processes (electrochemical, chemical, or biological as in SOFCOM).

The proof-of-concept SOFC system, installed in Torino (IT), operates with biogas produced in an industrial waste water treatment unit (WWTU) in CHP configuration, and with the CO2 separation from the anode exhaust sent to a section of CO2 recovery for Carbon reutilization in a photo-bio-reactor for C storage in form of algae (CO2 sink).

Therefore, the proof-of-concept demonstrates a poly-generation system based on the use of renewable fuels (biogas) in high efficiency electrochemical CHP generators, with complete CO2 recovery and Carbon re-use. The four products are:

1. High efficiency electric power from SOFC;

2. Thermal recovery from SOFC and other processes in the plant;

3. Clean water from photo-bio-reactor;

4. Algae: carbon stored and recovered in proof of biomass.

From a more strategic point of view, the proof-of-concept demonstrates how electrochemical-based systems could represent an important cornerstone of future energy systems based on renewable fuels, with the highest achievable energy conversion efficiency, and the total recovery of main energy-related atoms (C, H, O) possibly towards a material closed cycle.

The concept of completed energy and material recovery (in particular, Carbon recovery) points towards a concept of circular economy of energy, with negative CO2 emissions: the Carbon atom is completely recirculated in the system, and its re-utilization can be looped virtually for an infinite time.

The concept demonstrated by the proof-of-concept is completely replicable in similar context, or in completely new context in which the Carbon recovery will become a must. The impacts are now at the local level (where the demonstration is applied) but in principle the impact of thee typologies of systems (with complete Carbon reuse) could be at global level once adopted.

The concept, and its proof-of-concept, will be discussed in the presentation.

## P-3302-08

### Hydrodynamic modeling of the hydraulic threshold El Haouareb

A. Sebai (1)

(1) National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia

Groundwater is the key element of the development of most of the semi-arid areas where water resources are increasingly scarce due to an irregularity of precipitation, on the one hand, and an increasing demand on the other hand. This is the case of the watershed of the Central Tunisia Merguellil, object of the present study, which focuses on an implementation of an underground flows hydrodynamic model to understand the recharge processes of the Kairouan's plain groundwater by aquifers boundary through the hydraulic threshold of El Haouareb.

The construction of a conceptual geological 3D model by the Hydro Geodeller software has led to a definition of the aquifers geometry in the studied area thanks to the data acquired by the analysis of geologic sections of drilling and piezometers crossed shells partially or in full. Overall analyses of the piezometric Chronicles of different piezometers located at the level of the dam indicate that the influence of the dam is felt especially in the aquifer carbonate which confirms that the dynamics of this aquifer are highly correlated to the dam's dynamic. Groundwater maps, high and low-water dam, show a flow that moves towards the threshold of El Haouareb to the discharge of the waters of Ain El Beidha discharge towards the plain of Kairouan.

Software FEFLOW 5.2 steady hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the hydraulic threshold at the level of the dam El Haouareb in a satisfactory manner. However, the sensitivity study to the different parameters shows equivalent problems of a fix to calibrate the limestones' permeability. This work could be improved by refining the timing steady and amending the representation of limestones in the model.

# 3303 - Decarbonizing Electricity/Electricity Transition

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-3303-01

#### Does climate change threaten the future of the PV sector in Europe?

S. Jerez (1) ; I. Tobin, (2) ; R. Vautard (3) ; JP. Montavez, (1) ; F. Thais, (3) ; OB. Christensen, (4) ; A. Colette (5) ; M. Déqué (6) ; S. Kotlarski, (7) ; C. Teichmann, (8) ; ME. Van (9) ; G. Nikulin, (10)

(1) University of Murcia, Department of physics, Murcia, Spain; (2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif sur Yvette, France; (3) Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), Saclay, France; (4) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark; (5) INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (6) Météo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, France; (7) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science - ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; (8) Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany; (9) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Bilt, Netherlands; (10) Rossby Centre SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden
The bet on renewable energies is a key aspect of the mitigation strategies aimed at abating climate change, in which Europe is a world leader. In particular, PV power has been receiving large investments and its future deployment is expected to be spectacular, specially in southern countries. However, development plans remain widely bonded to the potential impacts of a hereafter changed climate on renewable energy resources. In order to shed light on this issue, this study makes use of a new generation multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations spanning up to the end of this century to assess changes in both PV power generation potential (PVpot) and actual production (PVprod) considering a future scenario with a high penetration of PV installations. Results show that the projected increase in the surface air temperature adversely affects the projections for PVpot, as it acts to diminish the efficiency of the PV cells. Thus, while surface solar radiation is projected to slightly increase in southern regions, PVpot is not. In the most extreme scenario considered (RCP8.5), PVpot would diminish in the range 5-15% (from South to North within Europe) by the end of this century according to the ensemble mean. In terms of production, significant changes are not expected southward but for a plausible reduction of the daily variability of the PVprod series, which would indeed be beneficial. However, further north, worse projections, with the Scandinavian region holding robust reductions in the mean production (about 10% under the RCP8.5) and uncertain projections regarding its future variability. In any case, all signals depict limited impacts indicating that climate change does not seem to pose a serious risk for the PV sector in Europe.

## O-3303-02

### Advances in multi-scale models to shed light on the plausibility of longterm scenarios

N. Maizi (1)

(1) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France

Given the complex international situation, mitigation strategies to tackle energy-related issues need effective normative tools to deal with the different types of constraint (e.g. climate-related, financial, legal, political, technical). Various scenarios are now available to provide an insight into the challenges of energy transition under environmental constraint. However, the regional, technological and social conditions that trigger this transition require developing tools to identify the policy mixes needed for new directions in technical systems and modes of development. And this is more stringent in the electricity sector.

In particular, the aim is to reconcile and connect different scales (temporal, spatial, social) in order to understand:

* The political implications that necessarily take place at several levels, from global to local,

* The impact of phenomena with different dynamics (several decades versus seconds), and

* The central role of people (for whom the future must be acceptable and desirable, i.e. compatible with aspirations and behavior).

This multi-scale integration brings up significant methodological obstacles that we propose to examine in three stages to understand the needed reconciliation of long-term approaches employed in prospective exercises at different scales:

1. Short-term/long-term temporal scales: reconciliation involves examining the "inertia" of systems, e.g. urbanization or the composition of current mixes, versus the "instantaneity" of usage (e.g. mobility using electric vehicles or smart grid solutions, energy efficiency) as well as the technical conditions for operating systems (i.e. network reliability, availability and stability);

2. Spatial scales: different levels of spatial issues will be tackled such as top-down versus bottom-up pledges for emerging countries, centralized versus decentralized networks, managing intermittent electricity production sources and integration into the network;

3. Societal scales: this will involve discussing the assessment of different development paradigms (degrowth/growth) and the integration of behavior as relevant modeling characteristics.

Each issue will be illustrated using specific examples.

## O-3303-03

### Using big data to make decisions in the electricity sector under deep uncertainty

I. Azevedo (1); I. Azevedo (2); B. Sovacool (3); K. Jones (4)  
M. Dworkin (5)

(1) Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA, United States of America; (2) Carnegie-Mellon University, Department of Engineering and public policy, Pittsburgh, United States of America; (3) Danish Center for Energy Technologies (Center for Energiteknologier), Herning, Denmark; (4) Vermont Law School, Vermont law school, South Royalton, United States of America; (5) Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont law school, South Royalton, United States of America

Creating resilient, reliable, and low-carbon electricity systems to help mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and adapt to a changing climate remains a critical global challenge.

Electricity consumption accounts for a large portion of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, making it one of the key sectors for climate mitigation strategies. Decarbonizing the electricity system becomes an even more daunting task given about 17% of the world population does not yet have access to energy services.

Changes in the electricity sector to move towards a low carbon energy system leave to important trade-offs in terms of costs to the overall energy system, how such costs are distributed, how to address issues related to fuel security and diversity, how to improve the level of energy services provided, and environmental consequences.

While decisions regarding different strategies to decarbonizing electricity systems may be done under deep uncertainty, in recent years the emergence of very detailed data - i.e., the big data revolution, paired with big data analytics - provides the ability to draw new insights and new ways to approach decisions.

This talk will focus on the ability to make decisions in the electricity sector under deep uncertainty in the United States. In the United States, the data from the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS), which is collected and made publicly available by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, provides data regarding the hourly power generation, and emissions from GHGs and criteria air pollutants, for every single fossil fuel based generator in the United States that is larger than 25MW. This data, coupled with air quality models and health and environmental valuation models, allows us today to estimate the regional effects of different interventions in the U.S. grid (such as increasing renewable (Siler-Evans et al., 2012, 2013), building codes (Gilbraith et al., 2014), storage (Hittinger and Azevedo, 2015) in a way that was not possible before. Similarly, on the consumption side, the deployment of electric vehicles is coupled with information on energy efficiency and demand side management programs provides a new way to use big data analytics to assess whether the intended goals of the programs have been achieved (Azevedo, 2014).

In this session, we will (1) provide an overview of some of the recent big data analytics efforts that have been pursued to improve decision making under uncertainty in decision making at the decarbonization of the electricity sector in the United States; (2) provide a map of data needs for several regions across the world that would be critical for one of the able to perform systematic international comparisons; (3) provide a research roadmap of the critical research questions we believe need to be addressed to make better decisions under uncertainty in the electricity sector.

### References:

Siler-Evans, K., Azevedo, I.L., Morgan, M.G., (2012). Marginal emissions factors for the US electricity system. Environmental Science & Technology, 46 (9): 4742-4748.

Siler-Evans, K., Azevedo, I. L., Morgan, M.G, Apt, J.
(2013). Regional variations in the health, environmental, and climate benefits from wind and solar generation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (29): 11768-11773.

Gilbraith, N., Azevedo, I.L., Jaramillo, P., (2014). Regional energy and GHG savings from building codes across the United States, Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 48, Issue 24, pp 14121-14130.

Azevedo, I.L. (2014) Energy efficiency and rebound effects: a review, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources, Volume 39.

Hittinger, E., Azevedo, I.L., (2015). Bulk Energy Storage Increases US Electricity System Emissions, Environmental Science & Technology, January 2015.

## O-3303-04

### Integrated pathway to decarbonizing electricity in China

S. Fu (1); Q. Yameng (2)

(1) Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences, Chongqing, China; (2) University of Tampere, School of information sciences, Tampere, Finland

1. Background: Economy, electricity and carbon mitigation in China

The momentum of economy is strong. i) urbanization; ii) poverty; iii) all-round Open-up and Reform policy; iv) 6.5-7.5% growth rate during 2016 to 2020.

Power industry faces rigorous environmental challenge. Per capita electricity is 3510 KW and will continue to rise sharply. Energy-intensive industries are backward, which results in low energy efficiency. As 78% electricity comes from fossil fuel, CO2 intensity remains 0.514-1.246 tCO2e/MWh. Power industry discharges 39% CO2 and still appears upward trend. Pricing and universal services are far from perfect; moreover, institution has CO2 lock-in weakness.

Carbon mitigation achievements in power industry. Energy intensity per unit GDP dropped by 20.7%, reducing 1,967 million tCO2e. Non-fossil energy accounted for 8% of primary energy. Consumption, saving over 600 million tCO2e annually. China eliminated 80 million KW small thermal power units, reducing 166 million tCO2e every year. What more, innovation of generating technology and reformation of institutional arrangement contributed to huge CO2 abatement.

2. A big deal: China-U.S. Joint Announcement on Climate Change

Benefits and protocol. Smart action on climate can promote economic growth and broad benefits. China-U.S. will jointly propose a protocol under the COP21.

Post-2020 actions. The U.S. targets to reduce CO2 by 26-28% in 2025. By 2030, China will peak CO2 emission and increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 20%.

Technology cooperation. China-U.S. have a robust program of energy technology cooperation and will jointly invest more in clean technological innovation.

Policy dialogue and practical cooperation. The two sides announced additional measures to strengthen and expand practical cooperation in climate change.

3. Integrated pathway option: Decarbonizing electricity in China

Decarbonizing electricity goal. Chinese electricity need follow a path featuring high efficiency, less pollution as well as satisfying economy growth. At 2015 energy intensity will drop by 16% and CO2 decreased by 17%. At 2020 non-fossil energy will take 15% and CO2 lower by 40-45%.

Demand side management. China adopts key actions in electricity-saving among industry, building and transportation; actively transforms economy into capital- and technology-intensive mode. It lists technologies of energy-saving and sets energy intensity standard. China encourages green building, improves heat-supply as well

as electricity-saving by public building. It also promotes green transportation, electricity-saving education; therefore, fosters a green lifestyle.

Develop renewable electricity. Renewable power is to take 30% by 2015. Hydropower will get 290 million KW, half of its potential. Currently nuclear power is 1.8%; thereafter China will endeavor to reach 40 million KW. It stresses intensive and distributed exploiting wind power; corresponding KW, China develops diverse patterns of solar power; thereafter solar collection will exceed 400 million m2. It also actively exploits biomass electricity.

Promote clean fossil electricity. China emphasizes coal washing, shuts small thermal units, speeds up supercritical- and ultra-supercritical- technology, encourages thermoelectricity generation as well as IGCC generation; actively develops circular economy. It expands power transmission from western to eastern; strengthens ultra-high voltage as well as smart grids. It will construct many CCS projects; thereafter, set up platform of national technology innovation.

Optimize institutional arrangement. China is to reform legal regime as well as regulations on electricity; especially separate transmission from distribution, revise pricing mechanism, and extend international cooperation. It will deepen electricity market and carbon market, improve CO2 auditing, diverse mitigation approaches; meanwhile, coordinate mitigation and power generation.

## O-3303-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3303-01

#### High-Resolution Modeling of China's Power Sector with a Particular Focus on Advanced Nuclear Technologies

A.P. Avrin (1)

(1) University of California, Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

Today, China's electric power sector accounts for 50% of the country's total greenhouse gas emissions and 12.5% of total global emissions. The transition from the current fossil-fuel-dominated electricity supply and delivery system to a sustainable, resource-wise system will shape how the country and the world, addresses local pollution and a global climate change. While coal is the dominant primary energy source today, rapid ongoing technological changes coupled with strategic national investments in transmission capacity and new nuclear, solar and wind generation demonstrate that China has the capacity to completely alter the current trajectory. For the past decades, the country's nuclear fleet has consisted in a dozen coastal water-cooled nuclear reactors using an open fuel cycle. In addition to strong nuclear research and development programs, China's increasing deployment of renewable energies and ambitious environmental targets towards sustainability make the extent and the nature of the role of nuclear in the power sector more unclear than ever. We present an integrated model of the Chinese power sector to analyze the prospects of implementing various energy transition scenarios. SWITCH, a high resolution modeling tool under development at the University of California, Berkeley, is used to analyze least-cost generation, storage, and transmission capacity expansion pathways for the electricity mix. Using the recent announcement made by President Xi Jinping to bring the country's carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 as a framework to assess potential future profiles for the energy mix, we show that building up to 380 GW of nuclear capacity by 2030 is part of the optimal, least expensive trajectory for the power sector. While the construction of such a large fleet of reactors in about 15 years might be challenging, it proves that nuclear cannot be excluded from discussions regarding long-term planning of the electric power sector in China. Using SWITCH, we also find that a carbon price of ~$40/tCO2 would achieve the 2030 carbon peak. Such a figure has a direct impact on the level of renewables and nuclear deployment in the country and, as a consequence, on the specific reactor technologies and energy cycle options to be developed. In particular, the role of fast-neutron reactors as part of a national plan to close the nuclear fuel cycle and present resulting pathways
For Generation IV technology deployment, according to different trajectories for CO2 emissions reduction targets and costs evolution by 2050, and different levels of variable renewable energy integration.

P-3303-02

## The System Effects and Electricity Market Impacts for Germany and the EU of the Energiewende Policy in Germany

(1) M. Blesl (1); J. Welsch, (2); M. Wiesmeth (2)

(1) IER University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) University Stuttgart, Ier, Germany

This energy policy, which is even internationally referred to as the "Energiewende", is based on the long-term vision of renewable energy being the primary source of future energy supply and the decarbonisation of the energy system. The road towards the new energy era is described by a set of targets: a specific share of renewables in the gross electricity generation and in the gross final energy consumption as well as an overall greenhouse gas reduction target of 80 to 90% till 2050 compared with 1990. In this context, a Pan-European TIMES energy system model (short: TIMES PanEU) points out the broader system effects and the impacts on the total costs of electricity supply and share of renewable energy, which result from a further deployment of renewables. TIMES PanEU contains all countries of the EU-28, plus Switzerland and Norway, and covers on country level all sectors connected to energy supply and demand like the supply of resources, the public and industrial generation of electricity and heat and the sectors industry, commercial, households and transport. The scenario analysis shows that the total system costs will be more than doubled by a increasing share of renewables. The reasons for the higher electricity supply costs are the low capacity credits of variable renewable power plants, the increased need for capacities from dispatchable power plants and the additional costs for transport and distribution. Under the current market environment ("energy only market"), it is unlikely that dispatchable power plants can be operated profitably when the share of variable renewable is increasing. New remuneration schemes would be required for the necessary balancing and capacity services. Additionally, the integration of large shares of variable renewables requires large electricity storages, power to heat, Electromobility and power to gas capacities. Thereby it is possible to map the interactions between electricity, heat and gas sector in TIMES PanEU. To this it will be examined, which temporal resolution is required for mapping different scenarios with different expansion targets of renewable energies? At first the necessary temporal resolution for mapping the availability of renewable and renewable energies (wind and solar energy) will be determined. This is followed by an enlargement of description of energy demand and energy storage technologies. Besides, import and export and therefore energy storage requirement are affected by the temporal resolution. In this connection the error, which occurs by a lower temporal resolution, will be identified.

P-3303-03

## Impact on the CO2 emissions of an increasing share of renewable energy in the French electricity mix

FM. Breon (1); B. Bonin, (2); O. Boucher (3); A. Laureau, (4); E. Merle, (4); J. Miss, (5); Y. Richet, (5); H. Safa, (6); F. Thais, (7)

(1) IPSL, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) CEA, Direction de l'énergie nucléaire, Gif sur Yvette, France; (3) Laboratoire de géodynamique, CNRS, Gif sur Yvette, France; (4) CNRS, In2p3/lpsc, Grenoble, France; (5) IRSN, Fontenay aux Roses, France; (6) Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Direction de l'énergie nucléaire, Gif sur Yvette, France; (7) Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), Saclay, France

The French electricity power mix is dominated by Nuclear as it provides about 70% of the energy consumption. Hydroelectricity is the second main source of electricity production in France. The combination of these two decarbonized electric productions, complemented by fossil fuel power plants, leads to typical CO2 emission of less than 50 gCO2/kWh, an order of magnitude smaller than that of many other industrialized countries. Thus, the contribution to climate change of the current electric

production in France is small. Yet, there is a strong ongoing debate to reduce the share of nuclear energy while increasing the share of renewable electric production such as wind and solar. It appears necessary to quantify the impact of such change in the power mix.

Although wind and solar are promising techniques to provide clean electricity, their production is intermittent, and photovoltaic electricity, their production is intermittent, and photovoltaic electricity, their production is intermittent, and significantly smaller than wind or sun, which is anti-correlated with the demand. Wind electricity is very much dependent on the wind, and production variations of a factor more than 100 have been observed at the French national scale. The intermittent nature of PV and wind production may necessitate the availability and use of backup solutions to insure a production in line with the demand. Yet, the requirement for backup power sources that are used at a fraction of their capacity has a direct impact on the overall production cost. In addition, to follow the intermittency of renewable energy production, it may be necessary to use CO2-emitting techniques, such as gas power plants.

We have developed a model that analyzes the electricity demand and production at the French national scale. The model accounts for the fixed and variable cost of each electricity production, the consumption, and thus throughput, not depend on the actual production, while the variable costs are proportional to the MWh production. Similarly, the CO2 emissions have both a fixed (plant construction) and a variable component.

The model is used to estimate the impact of a larger share of renewable energy on the electricity mix at the French national scale on the overall cost and the CO2 emissions. The intermittency of PV and wind energy imposes the development of backup power that has an impact on both the cost and the CO2 emissions. The latter can be evaluated as an additional cost (such as a Carbon Tax). The optimal energy mix depends on the assumed "cost" of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere.

P-3303-04

## Degrowth through the prism of prospective macroeconomic modeling: investigating a paradigmatic change for France

(1) F. Briens (1); N. Maizi (2)

(1) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Center for applied mathematics, Sophia-Antipolis, France; (2) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France

About three decades ago, the Brundtland commission released its famous report entitled "Our common Future". As an attempt to conciliate development and the environment, the term "sustainable development" was coined for the first time, as a "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key concepts: the concept of "needs" in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs." [Brundtland, 1987]

Almost thirty years later, climate change, along with biodiversity losses, disruption of natural cycles (nitrogen, phosphorous, water), non-renewable resource depletion, and others, remains a critical issue, and seriously questions the sustainability at the intensive economic metabolism of industrialized societies. As a way out of this multifaceted crisis, many take a stand in favor of a "green growth", focusing on the idea of technology-related limitations, and with the hope that technological progress will eventually enable a decoupling of energy and material throughput and environmental burdens from economic growth. Others instead put the spotlight on the question of the "needs" and advocate for a transition towards sustainable "post-growth societies". With the Degrowth movement, the call for such a transition is consolidating into a complex and multifaceted political project. For the "wealthiest" countries, where the ecological footprint per capita is greater than the global sustainable level, this project may be envisioned as a voluntary, socially sustainable, equitable, smooth downscaling of production and consumption, thus throughput, to an environmentally sustainable level, that increases human
well-being and enhances ecological conditions at the local and global level, in the short and long-term”[Kallis and Schneider, 2008].

However, current literature still falls a bit short of providing detailed investigations of possible macro-socioeconomic and biophysical outcomes that may result from taking in such paths. Several questions remain unanswered. In particular, we would like to focus here on the following issues: what concrete proposals could initiate such a transition? What could such paths induce in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste and GHG emission mitigation? What structural or institutional obstacles must be overcome and how? Etc.

Using a detailed dynamic input-output simulation model of the French monetary economy, we explore different scenarios of transition towards post-growth societies. These scenarios seek to reflect contrasted "visions of sustainable societies and lifestyles", inferred from a survey conducted amongst different social groups - including in particular actors within the Degrowth movement. They involve structural and behavioral changes in consumption patterns, and integrate proposals and strategies issued from the Degrowth movement. We investigate the possible outcomes of these scenarios in terms of employment, productivity, public debt, energy consumption, waste and GHG emissions and discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the different visions they reflect. Our results highlight in particular the importance of cultural, social, behavioral and "non-technical" factors, and recall the critical need for the collective elaboration of a societal project.

### References

[Brundtland, 1987] Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future (1987), United Nations.

[Kallis and Schneider, 2008] Kallis, G. and Schneider, F. (2008). Well-being and ecological sustainability beyond growth-d-growth: collaborative project (p.3), ICTA, Autonomous University of Barcelona.

## P-3303-05

# Integrating household behavior and heterogeneity into long-term energy planning models: The TIMES-Households framework

JM. Cayla (1)

(1) EDF R&D, Paris, France

The importance of household behavior in energy consumption is regularly raised in literature. The need to take household behavior into account and to introduce heterogeneity into economy-energy models is also generally pointed out, underlining the limitations of classic models that represent energy demand by a single mean household [1][2]. In their well-known "energy paradox" article, Jaffe & Stavins [3] single out household heterogeneity as one of the main "market barriers" to energy efficiency. Similarly, heterogeneity orientates the dispersion of household behavior in terms of energy consumption and equipment purchases. Thus in order to provide useful insights to public policy debates using prospective studies, we should also consider this household heterogeneity as a kind of "model barrier" that could prevent models from correctly apprehending reality.

Nevertheless energy-economy long-term planning models still often represent energy demand by a single mean household and thus fail to capture household behavior. Indeed, many models developed using the TIMES modeling framework [4] are often technology oriented and provide a very detailed list of equipments on the supply side. Whereas the demand side generally consists in a single mean household with a unique level of demand for energy services. This lack of detail on the demand side usually leads to unrealistic results, especially in terms of technology diffusion. Indeed in these models small price increases may then lead to no impact or sudden technological change, sometimes called "bang-bang" effects.

We here describe the original modeling approach developed within the MARKAL-TIMES model framework in order to take household behavior and heterogeneity into

account: the TIMES-Households model. This model depicts both household daily energy consumption and equipment purchasing behavior and focuses on the French residential and transport sectors. We show the importance of taking household heterogeneity into account in long-term planning models within the comparison of two energy price scenarios applied to two different models. Thanks to the highly disaggregated representation of households and their behavior in the model, we address the problem of unrealistic technology diffusion pathways often obtained when using an optimization bottom-up model. We also are able to address burden sharing issues which are very common and major issues related to the implementation of decarbonized sustainable pathways. Indeed our model helps quantifying the impact of energy policies such as carbon taxes, tax rebates or bonus/malus systems on household budget in term of investment expenditures and energy bill.

[1] Moezzi, M., Iyer, M., Lutzenhiser, L., Woods, J. 2009, "Behavioral assumptions in energy efficiency potential studies", Report prepared for CIEE Behavior and Energy Program, Oakland, California

[2] Jackson, T. 2005 "Motivating sustainable consumption. A review of evidence on consumer behaviour and behavioural change" Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey

[3] Jaffe, A.B., Stavins, R.N. 1994, "The energy paradox and the diffusion of conservation technology" Resource and economics 16, 91-122

[4] LouLou, R., Remme, U., Kanudia, A., Lehtila, A., Goldstein, G. 2005 "Documentation for the TIMES Model" http://www.etsap.org

## P-3303-06

# Opportunities and challenges for decarbonisation with electricity generation from nuclear energy

J. Cobb (1)

(1) World Nuclear Association, London, France

Generation of electricity from nuclear generation is a major global contributor to decarbonisation. Currently, nuclear generation meets around 11% of global electricity demand with very low lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, avoiding in excess of two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, compared to coal fired generation. Its high capacity factor and predictable output is advantageous compared to some low carbon electricity generation options.

Increased use of nuclear generation is a feature of a number of long-term climate change mitigation proposals. This presentation will review the projected emissions savings from nuclear generation, based third party studies and our own research. It will also review assessments of the lifecycle emissions of nuclear generation and how these compare to other generation options.

The presentation will examine the impact of different nuclear build scenarios on the nuclear fuel cycle, including global demand for uranium ore, uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication. It will identify where additional mining, processing and fabrication capacity may be required in these separate stages of the nuclear fuel cycle.

The presentation will also examine the scope for increasing global nuclear generation. This will include options for increasing and extending generation from existing reactors. It will also include options for new reactor technology to improve performance and better utilise the uranium resource.

Given these conditions the presentation will project what the potential contribution of nuclear generation to global greenhouse gas mitigation could be and what technical, economic and political challenges there would be to realising this contribution.
# The energy security implications of a low-carbon transition

E. Cox (1)

(1) University of Sussex, SPRU, Brighton, United Kingdom

In order to meet legislative targets for mitigating climate change, future energy systems will need to become affordable, secure and low-carbon – the so-called ‘trilemma’ of sustainable energy policy (Boston 2013). In Western Europe, the trilemma has received growing attention as energy security concerns rise up the political and public agenda, driven by declining indigenous fossil fuel reserves and increasing concerns over anthropogenic climate change (MacKerron 2009; Winstone et al 2007). As part of a growing body of research into energy security and low-carbon energy transitions, this paper assesses the future security of the UK electricity system in a low-carbon context. A new indicator framework for security of both supply and demand has been developed with the specific aim of making projections of the security of a low-carbon electricity system. Drawing upon recent research recommendations, the framework utilises a ‘dashboard’ approach to security analysis which is capable of identifying potential risks for the future security of low-carbon electricity system (Mitchell et al. 2013). The paper emphasises the importance of timescales of reference when addressing energy systems, and thus focuses on assessing both short-term ‘shocks’ and long-term ‘stresses’ to the electricity system (Boston 2013; Energy and Climate Change Committee 2011). As such, the future security of the UK electricity system is assessed under four key themes: Availability (long-term), Reliability (short-term), Affordability, and Sustainability.

The security assessment framework has been applied to a set of three transition pathways, all of which aim to reduce carbon emissions from the electricity sector by 80% by 2050. The three transition pathways have been chosen to reflect the importance of the overriding governance logic and normative goals which could lead to different energy pathways. One pathway envisages deregulation and market-centrism, one envisages large-scale centralised control, and the third pathway envisages a decentralised, small-scale electricity system controlled by civil society and consumers. As such, the analysis seeks to compare the future security of some of these contrasting governance options, in an attempt to flag up areas of concern and to highlight the major trade-offs which may emerge when seeking to balance security, affordability and carbon goals in energy policy.

This presentation will introduce this new methodology for assessing the energy security of low-carbon transition pathways. Results from the empirical analysis will be presented, along with the implications of these results for the energy security of a low-carbon transition. The presentation will offer some insights of the key measures for improving low-carbon electricity security, and the key trade-offs which could emerge between the security, carbon and affordability aspects of the trilemma.

Boston, A. (2013) Delivering a secure energy supply on a low-carbon pathway. Energy Policy, Vol. 52: 55-59

Energy and Climate Change Committee (2011) UK energy supply: security or independence? UK Energy and Climate Change Committee, London

MacKerron, G. (2009) Lessons from the UK on urgency and legitimacy in energy policymaking. In: I. Scrase and G. MacKerron (Eds.), Energy for the Future. Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke

Mitchell, C., Watson, J. and Whiting, J. (2013) New challenges in energy security: the UK in a multipolar world. Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke

Winstone, R., Bolton, P. and Gore, D. (2011) Energy security. House of Commons research paper, no. 07/42. Houses of Parliament, London

# An analytic framework to explore low-carbon energy pathways in Kosovo

D. Kammen (1); N. Kittner (2)

(1) University of California Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America; (2) UC Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

Kosovo's power sector suffers from poor reliability and rising costs. The World Bank and other potential donors have proposed construction of a new 600 MW lignite-fired coal-fired power plant in 2017, despite no longer finance coal projects except for extreme and rare circumstances. Kosovo has extensive coal resources, but also hydropower, wind, solar and biomass potential. Examination of the available options and the need to act quickly on the investment portfolio for Kosovo are critical for the local population and economy. At the same time, the financing of a coal plant in Kosovo serves as a pivotal test on the international stage for future financing of coal projects worldwide, especially in China and India. We investigate alternative low-carbon energy pathways to building the lignite coal plant and find a range of scenarios that all meet Kosovo's energy needs at lower cost than a new coal plant. We developed an analytic platform to model the electricity grid and constructed multiple scenarios for sensitivity testing. Our analytic platform looks at the cost, options, and impacts of different decarbonizing energy pathways—including a view into different energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. We find that a $30/ton carbon price increases costs associated with the new coal plant by at least $330 million USD (Kittner et al., under review). We find that the lignite coal plant remains the costliest option based on finances alone, even before considering the cost of carbon, health impacts, and job creation impacts. We introduce both a deterministic modeling platform to explore scenarios for Kosovo and for neighboring countries, and provide a LEAP platform version for policy makers and other interested parties to use in comparing costs, energy access, reliability, and environmental impacts of energy futures.

Kittner, N., Dimco, H., Azemi, V., Tairyan, E., Kammen, DM. Sustainable electricity options for Kosovo. Energy Policy. Under Review

# Decarbonizing the UK electricity sector by 2030: progress and outstanding challenges

A. Kazaglis (1) ; J. Skea (2)

(1) UK Government, Committee on Climate Change, Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom; (2) Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

The UK's Governments' statutory advisors on climate change - the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) - have advised that near-complete decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030 is part of the low cost path to meeting long term emissions targets. Through the Energy Act 2013, Parliament has now recognised the need for rapid decarbonisation of the power sector as a priority.

This talk will cover progress towards power sector decarbonisation and outstanding challenges.

Recent developments include updates in the policy framework through Electricity Market Reforms (EMR) and a step change investment in low-carbon capacity (particularly wind). The underlying emissions intensity of the UK's electricity grid - meaning the intensity that could be achieved if the grid were operated to minimize emissions - has dropped by around 40% since 2007.

However, outstanding challenges include a lack of certainty beyond 2020, which is an issue for the supply chain and investment with long hold times and the CCC recommend a legislated 2030 carbon intensity target to address this. An innovation in energy is also required for promising but currently expensive technologies (e.g. offshore wind and CCS) to clarify that there will be a market for these technologies if cost reductions can be achieved.

# Supplying reliable renewable electric power from desert regions to meet the electricity needs of growing economies
If we are to avoid dangerous climate change, the electricity systems of the world must be largely decarbonized by mid-century. Renewable electricity sources are carbon-neutral and the resource base is, globally and on each continent, large enough to satisfy any conceivable electricity demand, however, their utilization faces numerous challenges. First, renewable sources like solar and wind are intermittent and demand-controlled, while fossil fuel power technologies are supply-controlled and can supply base load power. The intermittency of solar and wind power may cause problems when integrating these sources in the power systems. Power sources that are both renewable and supply-controlled, therefore, are of high importance. These sources are hydropower, biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) equipped with thermal storage. CSP is the most efficient renewable energy systems, however, are dependent on water availability and can increase land- or water-use competition, among other several sustainability concerns. Second, all renewable power needs extensive areas of land due to its low energy density of the primary resource, increasing concerns regarding land-use conflicts and costs for land also for solar and wind power. This is a barrier to renewable power expansions in densely populated regions, in regions with high or rapidly increasing electricity demand, and in regions competing for land for agriculture. Renewable dispatchable sources like CSP that can be deployed at large-scale in remote regions or on land with non- or low-competing land-use for agriculture would be particularly valuable.

Desert regions are, therefore, potential suitable land for CSP expansion in terms of low competition for land use and the high levels of solar irradiation. Research shows that a dispersed and coordinated fleet of CSP plants equipped with thermal storage can supply large amounts of reliable power at reasonable costs, in some desert regions around the globe (Pfenninger et al., 2014). These regions, however, are far from centres of demand where power would be consumed, requiring large transmission lines to connect generation plants to the centres of demand (Trieb et al., 2012). We therefore examine the potential of a fleet of CSP plants to supply and transport reliable renewable electric power to large centres of demand, which are large cities worldwide. The desert regions in focus are located in China, India, the United States, and North Africa and the Middle East; this last region produces solar power both for its own needs and for electricity exports to the European Union. We conduct the analysis in three steps. First, we identify the best CSP-generation sites in the desert region, and the optimal configuration and operation of the CSP plant fleet to provide reliable electric power, and calculate the costs of generating and transmitting this power to the centres of demand. Our results will show to which degree renewable reliable electric power can be supplied from CSP plants fleets in desert regions, and what the cost of this power is at the points of demand. In addition, we will show in detail the optimal siting and design of the transmission lines from the deserts to the major cities. We expect to find that the potential for desert regions to supply reliable CSP to the consumption regions in focus is large, despite the vast distances.

## References

Pfenninger, S., Gauche, P., Lilliestam, J., Damerau, K., Water, F., Patti, J., 2014. Potential for concentrating solar power to provide baseload and dispatchable power. Nature Clim. Change. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2276.

Trieb, F., Schillings, P., Pregger, T., O'Sullivan, M., 2012. Solar electricity imports from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe. Energy Policy 42, 341–353. doi 10.1016/j.eneol.2011.11.091.

The share of renewable energies in the mix of electricity production is increasing worldwide. This trend is driven by environmental and economic policies aiming at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and an improvement of energy security. It is expected to continue in the forthcoming years and decades. Electricity demand is related to weather and climate factors such as the diurnal and seasonal cycles of sunlight and wind, but is also linked to less predictable variability on longer time scales. The intermittency and the lack of medium to long-range predictability of the renewable electricity production (solar, wind power) could eventually hinder their future deployment. Intermittency is indeed a challenge as demand and supply of electricity need to be balanced at any time. This challenge can be addressed by the development of large-scale renewable generation (from renewable and/or thermal sources), a large-scale energy storage system and/or improved management of the demand.

The main goal of this study is to provide a spatial optimization of an ideal renewable energy system at the French and European scales. We use ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-intern probabilistic reanalysis and meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasts (WRF) model to estimate the potential for renewable energies. Electricity demand and production are provided by the French electricity network (RTE) at the scale of administrative regions for years 2012 and 2013.

Firstly we will show how the simulated production of renewable electricity compares against the measured production at the regional scale. Simulated renewable energies production (wind and solar) will then be clustered in order to highlight the temporal complementarity (or lack of) between different regions and energy sources.

Secondly, we will present preliminary results from an optimization procedure that aims to minimize the cost of an ideal system composed of renewable energies, thermal plants and increased storage, as a function of a hypothetical carbon emission penalty. The optimal spatial distribution of renewable wind and solar energy systems will be assessed at the French and European scales under the constraint of a balance between demand and supply.

China is struggling to accelerate its economic development transition to a lower carbon intensity trajectory. The decarbonised electricity system plays a determining role in low carbon growth in China as it has become the largest power generator in the world and power generation contributes to nearly half of the country's carbon dioxide emissions. More than two-thirds of existing electricity generation are coal-fired, making China's electric power sector the most carbon intensive in the world. Total installed generating capacity would more than double over the next 20 years. Therefore the development pathway of China's power sector has tremendous implications for global carbon emissions reduction and temperature increase stabilisation. Biomass power generation offers a promising window of opportunity to address multi-objective challenges (economic, social and environmental) in the context of fast economic and demographic growth in large emerging economies. Bioenergy can also bring about macroeconomic and environmental coenBenefits of enhanced security of energy supply, better balance sheet, improved local labour market and social welfare through green jobs creation, poverty alleviation and greenhouse gases and air pollutions mitigation. Built on lessons drawn
from the markedly rapid development of wind and solar power over the last decade, this paper attempts to shed light on the status quo, achievements, opportunities and underlying challenges of scaling up biomass-fuelled heat and power generation in China. Our analysis focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of large-scale development of biomass power generation in China's electricity market, from both technological and institutional perspective. It is emphasised that cost-effectiveness aspect needs to be mainstreamed in biomass power industry planning and development, this in return will contribute to optimising the portfolio of decarbonising China's power sector for the next decades. The paper first discusses the main achievements and prospects for China's power sector. It then investigates the role of biomass in mitigating power generation associated GHG emissions and analyses the challenges in scaling up biomass power generation in China. Drawing lessons from wind and solar power, the analysis will proceed to address the economic efficiency of biomass power by investigating the prospect of incorporating power sector in the emerging carbon markets in China to achieve cost-efficient GHG emissions mitigation. The last part offers some concluding remarks and policy implications for decarbonisation in China's electricity sector.

P-3303-13

## Asian perspectives in governing the deployment of smart grids

D. Mah (1)

(1) Asian Energy Studies Center, Hong Kong baptist university, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Climate change concerns, rising energy costs, and risks of nuclear power have heightened the urgency of a transition to a low-carbon future worldwide. Smart grids represent one of the most revolutionary developments in energy management: by integrating advanced information technology, as a way to modernize existing electricity networks, smart grids have the potential to accelerate the deployment of more decentralised electricity supply systems (e.g. renewable energy) and demand-side measures. Smart grid technologies are increasingly being tested and adopted in developed and developing economies (e.g. the U.S., the U.K., Japan, and China).

Although smart grids have become an emerging theme in the energy literature, critical understandings on how and why smart grids have been developed in the ways as we observe have been lacking. The literature has also largely been based on advanced, industrialised societies in the West. The extent to which and how smart grids have been deployed in Asia, a continent of crucial importance in global energy governance, has yet been adequately addressed.

This paper aims to provide insights on the ways smart grids may evolve and enhance sustainable energy transitions in Asia. Based on preliminary results of an on-going project, we will examine the emerging interactions between the state, utilities/business, and electricity consumers, as well as the associated implications on the developments of smart grids in China and Japan. Our analysis will focus on three policy themes: (1) the development of a new regulatory framework (for rectifying utilities' disincentives) to renewable energy and energy efficiency; (2) business model innovation to develop business strategies to achieve economies of scale, cost effectiveness, and risk sharing, and (3) engaging electricity consumers. The Asian perspectives of our analysis will provide better understanding of the extent to which unique political and socio-economic conditions in some Asian countries may lead to the emergence of distinctive forms of smart grid deployment pathways that may set them apart from those in the West.

P-3303-14

## Carbon issues for power systems: a french-US crossed contribution

N. Maizi (1) ; D. Kammen (2)

(1) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France; (2) University of California Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America

Spurred by the need to address climate change while

promoting economic vitality and sustainability requires a new class of energy system models that facilitate a dialog between mathematical approaches to economics, public policy and strategic thinking. This approach ideally affords a platform to integrate equally technical and social perspectives on energy systems, something that has proven particularly difficult in the past for a variety of data, analytic, and conceptual reasons. While models are inherently inaccurate representations of natural and social processes, we have found considerable value in comparative 'model complements' where different approaches are brought into dialogue. To accomplish this, our two teams, based at the Ecole des Mines de Paris and at the University of California, Berkeley have initiated this comparison and conversation. The two platforms TIMES and SWITCH respectively permit different visualizations of energy choices and scenarios. These prospective modelling tools are a heritage of a long tradition of tools first created in the 1960's from the dialogue between mathematicians and economists and based on a concept of optimality. The way they support the scoping of policies on energy and climate is based on the following: a vision of transforming technical systems with the idea of an optimal timetable for employing technologies in decreasing order of merit. This can be skewed by the introduction of the internal cohesion of the energy system at technical level and, as a result, inertia, the technological barriers to remove, the benefits in endogenous learning and the macroeconomic costs of support policies are addressed.

This contribution aims to bring together parallel developments of a prospective landscape dedicated to the power sector, considered as the first GHG emitter across the world. This will bring first elements to understand to what extent technological solutions can be brought as global solutions learning and engineering aims over a long time horizon: namely the potential of smart grid solutions as demand response, flexibility options, spread of renewable energy, and what could be their limits, if some exist.

This approach is particularly relevant to go beyond opposing theses, either for instance considering that renewable energy sources should only be used when they are competitive, or setting ambitious short- and mid-term penetration targets to bring down the cost of renewables based on technical and institutional learning processes.

This comparison will allow a greater understanding of the way long term prospective models developed in the US and in France, envisage the way countries face energy and climate long-term issues.

P-3303-15

## Power system prospective: From deep within the material to the power grid scale

V. Mazauric (1) ; N. Maizi (2)

(1) Scheiner electric and MINES ParisTech, Center for applied mathematics, Grenoble, France; (2) PSL-MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France

To address the abysmal lack of efficiency of the electrical system (73% of losses, 45% of worldwide CO2 emissions!), an energy efficient description of electrical systems lying on a reversible interpretation of the Faraday's law is presented.

As matter of fact, the free current density flowing in the whole power grid exhibits well-split scales allowing mean-field hypothesis where the global condition of reversibility is replaced by embedded minimizations on the various scales involved by the power electrical system. Following a thermodynamic viewpoint, various scales were explored from deep within the material to the power grid scale.

At the power management level, the electromagnetic energy coupling acts to enforce synchronism - usually f = 50Hz or 60Hz - between all generation plants supplying the power grid. An X-Y lattice model is adopted to describe the interaction between the magnetic momentum carried by the rotor of a given machine and the magnetic mean-field resulting from all the others [1]. Provided a large enough resistant electrodynamic torque - simulated with a strong enough correlated lattice or actually a suitable voltage plan -, synchronism is kept under admissible load fluctuation and the kinetic energy embedded in the whole power system acts as a global and huge inertia against frequency deviation which therefore may only occur on several periods.
Given that energy conservation results from the uniformity of time for any isolated system [2], this upper-aggregated scale provides two dynamic energy-based invariants specifically shaped for power systems and suitable to address the question of reliability, namely the kinetic- and the magnetic- energies embedded in the whole power grid. Conversely, following dynamically these energy-based invariants provides a way to perform a space-aggregation and a time-reconciliation of all the scales involved in the power management of the electromagnetic energy.

Hence, a dynamic reliability constraint on kinetic energy was endogenized in the technical optimum TIMES model. Dedicated to La Reunion island:

* The potential contribution of electrochemical storage technology to the power dynamics and the reliability has been demonstrated; and

* A high share of variable renewable plants (around 50%) can be considered without jeopardize power transmission.

[1] D.D. Betts, «X-Y Model» in: Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena, vol. 3, C. Domb and M.S. Green Eds., pp. 569-652, 1972.

[2] L.D. Landau, E.M. Lifshitz, Mechanics; vol. 1. Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1960.

## P-3303-16

# Costs and benefits of a greener alternative for the development of Vietnam's power sector

HA. Nguyen Tranh (1) ; M. Ha-Duong (1)

(1) CRED/CNRS, Nogent sur Marne, France

To explore pathways for Vietnam's power system until 2040, two scenarios are developed in the current study: (1) a scenario based on current trends (BAU); (2) a greener alternative with more renewable energy and higher energy efficiency (ALT). The authors estimate that the external costs of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 in the power sector in Vietnam are 7-20, 1 328, 2 047 and 1 460 $US/ton$, respectively. We find that the ALT scenario is more sustainable than the BAU scenario in all aspects. In the ALT scenario, the price of electricity and the domestic trade balance are less sensitive to fluctuations in the international price of coal than in the BAU scenario because imported fuel accounts for only 39% of total generation capacity in 2040, as opposed to 60% in the current policy scenario. The total costs accumulated from 2010 to 2040 would be lower in the greener alternative: 632 billion US dollars compared with 974 billion US$. This difference arises from several factors: lower investment in new capacity (226 compared with 306 billion US$); lower local pollution costs (73 compared with 137 billion US$); lower CO2 emissions; and lower expenditures on imported fuels (57 compared with 115 billion US$). The outcomes of the ALT scenario are in accord with the targets for the power sector in the most recent Green Growth Strategy of Vietnam (GGSV).

## P-3303-17

# Institutional change and market conditions for low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam

HA. Nguyen Trinh (1) ; Y. Rizopoulos (1)

(1) LADYSS, Paris, France

The rapid expansion of the industrialization and urbanization processes over the last two decades has dramatically increased the demand for electricity in Vietnam. The challenges of developing new resources, enhancing high-voltage transmission lines, and reducing transmission and distribution losses imply an improvement of the current electricity system.

Considerations related to low carbon transition make part of this general context. Meanwhile, because of complex interwoven interests, major players as the powerful holding EVN (Electricity of Vietnam) seem more interested to pursue the development of fossil/fuel based power plants than to favor renewable resources. As a consequence, a low carbon transition implies a

fundamental transformation of the current Vietnamese electricity system. Focusing on the institutional and governance issues, such a transition needs "actions to remove the barriers" (IEA, 2012) and "high levels of social and political innovation" (Global Carbon Project, 2010). Indeed, the institutional environment of the energy sector has its roots in the 'Doi moi' policy (1986), but also in the systemic features of Vietnam combining centralisation and fragmentation: centralisation of political power and weight of the political elite, hierarchy and informal networking, progressive centralisation of economic management, and weak civil society.

The paper proposes a mesoeconomic approach of the low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam. We argue that political will is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for such a change. The transition process depends on independent decisions inside the electricity sector and implies a fundamental transformation of the stakeholder's positions and relations. In particular, it necessitates the existence of a critical mass of initiating actors perceiving the benefits of investing in renewable sources and having levers to redefine the rules of the game, modifying therefore the institutional framework and enabling the constitution of new structural interdependencies inside the electricity system. In this perspective, we proceed to the identification of key players, and point out the institutional and structural characteristics of the electricity market. Then, we propose an analytical grid to apprehend the change path by following the evolution of some focal variables. Concerning specifically wind electricity generation, wholesale market price and subsidies to the single buyer indicate the balance of power between the major stakeholders and reflect the stages of the transition process.

Our work sheds further light on the processes that determine the transition to low carbon electricity in Vietnam but several limitations should be noted given the complex multilevel/multifactor character of the game. Indeed, in-depth knowledge of vertical (government to enterprise) and horizontal (enterprise to enterprise) bargaining process or of the way foreign stakeholders intervene and interact with local actors could usefully complete the analytical grid developed here. More, we focus on the single onshore wind power as an illustration of the conditions influencing low carbon transition. The method to monitor the change process could be further improved by integrating more detailed data on electricity selling prices, as well as incentives and counter-incentives for all renewable and fossil resources.

We propose a comprehensive analysis of the factors shaping/preventing the transition to low carbon electricity in Vietnam - especially those related to interest settlements, actors' strategies, principles of governance and institutional framework - in a political economy perspective. Concerning specifically wind electricity generation, wholesale market price and subsidies to the single buyer indicate the balance of power between the major stakeholders and reflect the stages of the transition process. In addition, the paper provides a methodological contribution for the measure of structural/institutional change in the energy sector.

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# Feasibility of a decentral renewable power system in Europe

S. Pfenninger (1) ; J. Lilliestam, (2)

(1) Imperial College London, Grantham Institute and Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, United Kingdom; (2) ETH Zürich, Human-environment systems group, department of environmental systems science, Zürich, Switzerland

The global transition of the power sector towards clean and renewable technologies is well underway. The worldwide average annual growth rate for installed wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) capacity since the year 2000 have been about 25% and 45%, respectively, with installed capacities in 2013 reaching almost 320 GW wind and 140 GW for solar PV. Hand-in-hand with the rising importance of renewables, the idea of a more local, decentral electricity supply has gained increasing prominence and ideological support. Amongst advocates of a renewables-based electricity system, this is pitching proponents of a centralized renewables deployment (e.g.
based on large-scale desert solar power with a continental, or intercontinental, transmission system) against those who argue for decentralized generation and distribution (e.g. based on rooftop PV and small-scale wind combined with smart demand management).

The rapid deployment of both wind and PV in countries like Germany has seemingly brought this possibility of a radically different electricity system than the one we have today. Less than it has ever been. Some of the potential advantages of such a decentralized system include more energy independence for individual countries or even municipalities, and more economic benefits accruing to the local communities where power is both produced and used. However, critics point to the fact that such a system would be more costly, for example, due to inefficiencies caused by the large local generation overcapacities needed to maintain system stability, the increased storage requirements, and the loss of returns to scale effects by having many small power plants instead of few large ones. Furthermore, there is the question of how technically feasible the decentralized power paradigm is for heavily populated areas, such as those found in large parts of the European Union (EU), and particularly large metropolitan areas like Paris or London.

Here, we examine the degree to which a completely decentralized power system based on a combination of renewable energy technologies across the EU is in fact possible, answering the question of how small the smallest self-sufficient areas can be and how much interconnection (especially around cities) is needed in order to supply all electricity needed and keep the system balanced. We do this by simulating wind and solar power generation and analyzing the degrees of aggregation, interconnection and storage. The degree of aggregation is the possible set of independent "electricity islands" across the EU to support themselves for most or all hours of the year. To do so, we use high-resolution wind and solar power plant simulations based on satellite and reanalysis data and validated against real sites across Europe, with a spatial resolution between 5 and 50 kilometers, and a temporal resolution of one hour. Using this input data, we apply the multi-scale energy systems modeling framework Callisto to determine optimal deployment scenarios for these electricity islands.

The results will show the spatial distribution of viable energy islands in Europe, how different storage and demand response availabilities influence the structure of these energy islands as well as the resulting electricity costs at different levels of supply reliability.

## P-3303-19

# Energy Transition in Europe. The role of communities and city-regions - some comparisons between Britain and Germany

### L. Reynolds (1)

(1) L'Institut d'études avancées de Paris, Paris, France

How can city-region level public authorities in the UK help drive a low carbon energy transition? In addition, how might such a transformation of the energy regime also involve shifts in economic, social and political power?

When the energy transition in the UK is compared with the engiernegwe in Germany, one salient feature stands out: In Germany, new actors from local cooperatives to city authorities have become key players in the growing renewable energy sector. This may even threaten the centralised 'utility' model of the incumbent players. The UK by contrast, has historically had a more centralised political system with fewer powers for cities and regions. It has also had a more centralised energy system, along with more centralised visions for energy transition.

However, two significant recent developments may be changing this situation in the UK. First, there are the moves to devolve some central government powers to newly enhanced 'city-regions'. Secondly, comes a new government community energy strategy, which signals encouragement of the community energy model.

This paper explores the dual processes of city-regional decentralization and energy transition in the UK. Drawing on the findings from a current EDF-IEA Paris transitions énergétique study, it examines the potential for a new 'civic energy sector' in the UK, and ongoing moves by UK

city-regions around this question. Drawing on theories from transition studies, the sociology of technology and urban geography, this work analyses and addresses the contested questions of scale – between community, city and region – to explore the shifting, multiple and contested pathways to energy transition. How might community and city level players reconfigure the energy transition? What limits are placed on this process – including by incumbent actors in the energy sector and government? How can we understand the different strategies and visions of energy transition today, with their different imagined scales of transition and distributions of political, economic and electrical power? The conclusions drawn can help us to understand the role played by communities, cities and regions in the transition to a low carbon society and energy regime.

## P-3303-20

# Techno-economic analysis of carbon mitigation options for the fossil fuel fired power plants in India

### U. Singh (1); AB. Rao (2); N. Sharma (1)

(1) National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Rourkela, Odisha, India; (2) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Centre for technology alternatives for rural areas, Mumbai, India

In response to the global climate change problem, the world community today is in search for an effective means of carbon mitigation. Coal based power plants in India, with an installed capacity of over 149 GW, account for more than half of the energy production and 66% of electricity generation in the country. These plants emit approximately 665 MtCO2 annually i.e. 37.5% of the total greenhouse GHG emissions. India, with a large number of new coal power plants (~ 500 plants with about 600 GW capacity) being proposed, the problem of GHG emissions is far from being solved.

A variety of options exist for reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from the existing coal-fired power plants in India – which are mostly sub-critical units. The most feasible approaches include fuel switching (of low-carbon fuels such as natural gas and biomass) and efficiency improvement (by better O&M conditions – by using better quality coal which may have to be imported from outside the country, or by adoption of supercritical and ultra-supercritical or IGCC technology). Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the process of extraction of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) from large-point industrial and energy related sources, transport to storage locations and long-term isolation from the atmosphere. It is being considered as a promising carbon mitigation technology, especially for large point sources such as coal power plants.

The main objective of this paper is to carry out a techno-economic analysis of the several carbon mitigation options for the fossil fuel based power plants in India. The following options would be considered:

1. refurbishing/ repowering of the existing sub-critical units with SC/USC/IGCC,

2. using imported coal with better combustion properties

3. using CCS to capture and reduce a substantial fraction of the emissions

4. a combination of any of the above strategies

However, CCS is accompanied by a huge economic and energy penalty. In case of post-combustion CO2 capture using solvents like amine and ammonia, part of the steam from the steam cycle is lost for solvent regeneration. Thus, the gross electric output of the plant is lowered. This issue can be addressed by using an auxiliary natural gas boiler. Thus, we have one more potential variant of the list of carbon mitigation options listed above.

While India has substantial gas reserves, natural gas reserves are quite low. However, recently there has been a great deal of interest in unconventional gases like shale gas and coalbed methane (CBM) in India. If shale gas and CBM can be aggressively deployed, they can serve in several avenues including in auxiliary natural gas boilers for CCS retrofits. Obviously, pricing of gas versus coal shall be an important determinant for such deployment. Moreover, if the availability and pricing of natural gas
become more favorable, then Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plants may also be considered as a suitable option. In that case, NGCC may also be coupled with CCS.

Thus, a large number of carbon mitigation options will be analyzed so as to estimate the carbon mitigation potential as well as the associated cost of mitigation. The modeling of the plants would be done by using the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IEC-CM) developed at the Carnegie Mellon University, USA. This modeling framework enables a comparison of performance as well as the costs associated with these various plant options on a consistent basis. Sensitivity of all these scenarios towards some key parameters such as the varying levels of fuel prices, plant capacity factor and fixed charge factor on the capital investment will also be studied so as to understand the policy implications of such interventions.

P-3303-21

The drivers of investment in cleaner energy production

E. Verdolini (1) ; F. Vona (2) ; D. Popp (3)

(1) FEEM Fondazione Enrico Mattei, CCSD, Milano, Italy; (2) OFCE Sciences-Po / SKEMA Business School and SciencesPo, Nice and Menton, France; (3) Syracuse University, Syracuse, United States of America

The ability to match future economic growth with reduced pressure on the environment is inextricably linked with the deployment and diffusion of low carbon technologies. An important sector that needs to be decarbonised to supply sustainable energy for all while reducing pressure on the environment is that of centralized electricity and heat production, which is among the major emitters and whose demand is project to increase significantly over the next decades, especially in developing countries (IEA, 2014).

Many "clean" technologies for electricity production are already available, but their use is hindered because they are not cost-competitive with "dirty" technologies. Such price wedge is due to at least three reasons. First, some technologies are relatively immature, and lower costs will materialize only in the future. Second, the price of dirty technologies does not internalize the cost of pollution. Third, the energy sector is characterized by long-lived capital stock and significant sunk investment in existing (dirty) plants.

The academic debate regarding the decoupling of economic growth from polluting energy sources (decarbonization) is often framed assuming a clear-cut distinction between what is clean and what is dirty and the theoretical possibility of completely substituting dirty inputs with clean ones (Acemoglu et al. 2010). Both assumptions are very strong when referring to aggregate energy systems, and very specifically to the power sector. First, emissions reductions in electricity generation can be achieved using either renewable energy resources or improving the energy (and hence carbon) efficiency of fossil-based technologies. Second, if one sets aside nuclear due to proliferation and safety considerations, there is no carbon free technology that can nowadays fully substitute fossil-based energy. Specifically, renewable energy sources strongly depend on the natural endowment (ocean, hydro, wind, are highly intermittent and seasonal (solar, wind), do not have to be decarbonated to meet the current demand for energy alone (wind, geothermal) or are manufactured using rare metals whose availability cannot be taken for granted (solar). Moreover, centralized electricity and heat production are peculiar in that the goods they produce (electricity and heat) are difficult to store in an economically viable way or to transport over great distances, and need to be used by consumers at the time they are produced (Battarchaya chpt10).

In this paper, we explore the implications of the peculiarities of the power sector and of available clean energy technologies. We focus on the degree of complementarity between clean and dirty electricity investment. We use data for 27 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the years 1990–2007 to show that when we meet energy demand when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow investments in renewable energy generation have been combined with investments in capacity of fossil power generation technologies. Specifically, our analysis confirms that systems that promote a high penetration of renewables require some backup generation capacity that is quick to react and most likely utilized under capacity

for most of the time. Older coal power plants and base load plants are not good candidates in this respect, given their high capital costs, low operating costs, the inverse relation between efficiency and size and the long time needed for them to be brought on and off line. Conversely, high efficiency (gas) plants and technologies, which can be brought into operation relatively quickly and allow modular use since efficiency does not fall significantly with size, are installed to quickly compensate renewable intermittency (Battarchaya chpt10).

The implications emerging from our findings are manifold. First, at present there is no evidence that in the power sector technical change can be solely directed towards the clean input without important implications for the reliability of energy supply, energy access and energy security. Second, absent major breakthroughs in storage and grid technologies, the diffusion of renewable energy technologies may not be economically viable even if costs significantly fall due to need to balance demand and supply instantaneously. Lastly, the necessity to install peak load capacity which compensate intermittency is a further burden that is often not considered in the estimation of renewable energy costs.

P-3303-22

Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris -Assessment from an energy system perspective of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

Z. Vrontisi (1) ; A. Kitous, (2) ; A. Labat, (3) ; M. Perry (3) ; B. Saveyn, (2) ; T. Vandyck, (2)

(1) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain; (2) European Commission (DG JRC-IPTS), Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (3) European Commission (DG Climate Action), Brussels, Belgium

On 25 February 2015, the European Commission has set out its Communication, «The Paris Protocol – a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020» in the EU's Energy Union package. This paper establishes the work undertaken in the context of the abovementioned EC communication regarding the energy system related impacts of post-2020 global climate change mitigation policies. The analysis presented here mainly lies on results from the energy systems model POLES for the purposes of the EC preparation for the global climate negotiations. It focuses on possible ways to stay below 2°C through processes established in Paris COP21 by studying a combination of domestically determined mitigation targets for the period beyond 2020.

The POLES model is a global sectoral simulation model for the development of energy markets. It operates on a yearly basis up to 2050, with a very recent data update. Main exogenous inputs are economic growth and demographic projections for each region. POLES model provides comprehensive energy balances (demand, transformation, and supply) for the 57 countries / regions covering the world and detailed oil and gas productions for 80 countries. Energy demand in 15 sectors is driven by income and derived activity variables as well as short- and long-term price energies.

In the POLES Baseline population and economic growth projections are based on the UN and OECD and the evolution of the energy markets, as driven by its own dynamic of production, supply and demand, is consistent with IEA projections. The projections do not consider the impacts from unabated climate change. In this Baseline scenario, global emissions would increase at unsustainable levels: from 48 GtCO₂e in 2010, 61 GtCO₂e in 2030 to 68 GtCO₂e in 2050. Along such trajectories, the world is at risk to experience a global temperature increase of +4°C, with sizeable impacts on sustainable growth and vulnerable groups in all regions. The Global Mitigation scenario is in line with staying below 2°C, with global GHG emissions peaking in 2020 and reaching about 43 GtCO₂e in 2030, still higher than in 1990 (+20%) but lower than in 2010 (-10%), and world average emissions reach 1.5 tCO₂e per capita (50th percentile is 2 tCO₂e per capita), roughly the level of the least emitting regions in 2010.

The modelling confirms that all regions can define domestic mitigation goals in line with 2°C, based on their current policy experiences, and that the institutions and
mechanisms put in place under the Climate Convention framework can be mobilised to deliver enhanced climate and economic benefits, especially for the countries with less capabilities. A significant transformation of the energy system is required, including energy savings, decarbonising the power sector with renewables, nuclear and fuel switching and actions to cut non-CO2 emissions in agriculture, industry or waste. It is found that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) becomes an important mitigation option after 2030. Europe and Asian countries see their imports in volume and monetary value decreasing substantially, North America presents a balanced energy trade and fossil fuel energy producers have to adapt to improved energy use at global level. Nonetheless,

Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America remain net fossil fuel exporters, Gulf countries and Russian Federation remain the world's dominant suppliers, and energy trade remains an important source of their income. The global investment patterns in power production are substantially modified by the introduction of ambitious GHG mitigation policies and by the related major changes in the energy mix towards renewable sources representing 40% of primary energy in 2050. Investments shift away from fossil fuels towards the power sector to tap capital-intensive mitigation opportunities. These investments enable to reduce other costs that would be required if abatement was not undertaken largely by the power sector but also by expenditure on fossil fuel imports and subsidies.

# 3304 - Climate change, carbon budgets and energy sector regulation

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3304-01

#### The implications of 2°C carbon budgets for global energy systems

K. Anderson (1); A. Bows-Larkin (1)

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

The IPCC's fifth assessment reports (AR5) have been widely heralded as delivering unequivocal and stark messages to policy makers. Of particular relevance to this paper is the inclusion, for the first time in the IPCC's history, of explicit carbon budgets for differing probabilities of meeting a range of twenty-first century temperatures rises, from 1.5°C to 4°C. These carbon budgets provide a clear and quantifiable framework against which to assess technical and socio-economic policies for delivering the requisite rates and timeframes of mitigation.

With specific focus on CO2-only emissions from the energy system, this paper will revisit the framing of the mitigation challenge in accordance with the AR5 carbon budget range for a "likely" (66%), "likely as not" (50%) and "not likely" (33%) probability of maintaining the rise in global mean surface temperature below the 2°C characterisation of dangerous climate change. New estimates of the process-carbon emissions from the cement industry, combined with a revised carbon budget estimate for deforestation will be used to determine what CO2-only budget remains for the energy sector.

The paper will demonstrate that even assuming an unparalleled agreement at the Paris Negotiations in December 2015 (COP 21), alongside highly ambitious policies for reducing emissions from cement and deforestation, the energy-only budget of CO2 post-2020 will be radically more challenging than implied in AR5's post-2011 budgets. For a "likely" chance of 2°C, and assuming global emissions peak in 2020, mitigation of energy-only CO2 would need to rise rapidly to well over 10% p.a. by 2025 and be maintained at that rate until the virtual elimination of CO2 by 2050. The story for a 50:50 chance of 2°C though slightly less dramatic, is nonetheless beyond anything yet countenanced by policy makers and only seldom referred to in the literature.

Whilst the implications of such 2°C pathways are interpreted by some as highly regressive, this paper seeks to outline a positive solutions-oriented agenda. The scale of the challenge in the twenty-first century, with globalisation and an increasing population, demands moving beyond the reductionist disciplinary tools of the twentieth century. A systems-oriented and interdisciplinary approach designs infrastructure and develops institutions to offer resilience and facilitate iteration; a radical departure from abstract and theorised optimisation. Set within this context of unprecedented rates of mitigation and rapidly shrinking timeframes, it is this intellectually more exciting agenda, that informs the papers quantitative, technical and social-science content.

### K-3304-02

#### Factoring Strategic and Sustainability considerations into energy sector policy and regulation: Insights from UK experience

M. Grubb (1); J. Hardy (2); J. Mills, (2)

(1) University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom; (2) Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Sustainable energy policy, London, United Kingdom

The UK is widely seen as a supplier of market liberalisation, and the UK regulator was initially established with a primary duty to promote competition, which was subsequently amended to a focus on protecting the interests of consumers. The 2000s saw growing tensions between the renamed Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) and the government over strategic dimensions – particularly escalating concerns about investment adequacy (for security), and decarbonisation. This paper outlines the UK development of policy and regulatory structures. In support of decarbonisation, explaining the extent to which energy market structures and their regulation cannot be separated from the wider definitions of objectives and responsibilities.

Economic principles which fit one set of conditions and lead to one set of reforms may not be adequate in themselves when conditions or the balance of objectives change. Attempts to give the regulator an explicit primary duty relating to either security, or the environment did not succeed. However the 2008 Energy Act 'clarified' its primary duty as being "to protect the interests of both existing and future consumers." In effect, this achieved the same thing: it gave the regulator an explicit duty to consider the longer-term implications of energy sector developments. The defining struggle within Ofgem was then its Project Discovery (2009), the findings of which were simultaneously lambasted from different camps as heresy, or derided as Ofgem finally 'discovering the real world'.

The conclusion that the UK electricity market structure could not guarantee security and could not deliver the scale of low carbon investment required led directly to the government developing the UK Energy Market Reform bill, which radical changes the economic structure of the UK electricity system. This paper outlines the main rationales, components and sketches the inevitable new challenges which arise.

Ofgem also underwent internal changes, setting up a Division of Sustainable Development charged in part with ensuring that the concerns of future consumers are represented at the table of regulatory decisionmaking. Analysis of the issues at stake – and practical experience – led to the conclusion that attempts to aggregate the interests of present and future consumers (and potential trade-offs) through aggregate monetised cost/benefit appraisal was unworkable and potentially obscured rather than informed good decisionmaking. Following a 2-year process of research and consultation, in July 2013 Ofgem's Board agreed a major restructuring of its Impact Assessment framework. This paper articulates this
## O-3304-01

### National Plans for Utilization of Renewable Energy in Egypt

EHM. (1); MW. Labib (2); S. Tantawi (3)

(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt; (2) EEAA, Climate Change, Cairo, Egypt; (3) EEAA, Cairo, Egypt

Egypt has various opportunities for applying renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies. Thus to achieve sustainability in Egypt's energy sector it is important to develop an overall national energy strategy that incorporates renewable sources and acts as an umbrella for the existing renewable energy and energy efficiency plans.

This strategy should be involved in the Egyptian development plan in all sectors, as this will help to overcome the existing barriers whether institutional, technical, financial, market, awareness and information or technological barriers.

The government, the Industrial Modernization Centre (IMC) and the Ministry of Scientific Research shall allocate funds for Research and development of RE & energy efficiency technologies. Four bodies may be responsible to establish collaborative work programs for 1) RET, RE systems component design and development, 2) Human Resources Training and development and 3) National innovation on near- commercial technologies and niches.

All sectors in Egypt should be integrated with this overall strategy for harmonization in actions, hence it became necessary to raise awareness on the vital importance of Renewable Energy (RE), Research and Development (R&D), and the need to rationalize energy use in homes, factories, and various production sites and services; to make this awareness and rationalization as a rule for behavior and the lifestyle in Egypt.

## O-3304-02

### Present and future complementarity of wind power production in EU-28

F. Monforti (1); M. Gaetani (2); E. Vignati (3)

(1) Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Cadrezzate, Italy; (2) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France; (3) Joint Research Centre, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy

The amount of wind energy injected in the European electricity transmission system is expected to increase in next decades following the energy transition triggered by Directive 2009/28/EC.

Nevertheless, both absolute amounts and time patterns of wind electricity supply are different in each European country because of non-homogeneous meteorological conditions, Europe being large enough to span several different climatic areas.

Indeed, different types of weather are often simultaneously present in different areas of the continent, and any planned pan-European electricity transmission grid aimed at dispatching electricity production throughout the continent has to face the challenge of balancing in real time differently intermittent and strongly inhomogeneous resources such as the wind production is.

In this study, the long term (90 years) on-shore potential wind power supply for European countries is simulated with a daily time resolution, on the basis of the wind fields provided for the period 1961-2050 by 12 regional climate models involved in the ENSEMBLES model intercomparison project.

Thanks to this data base a long term view of the evolution of potential wind power deployment will be provided. In particular, the time complementary of wind energy production originating from different countries will be analysed with a special attention to the implications that such a complementarity is expected to have for the needs for international electrical interconnections transporting electricity from high production areas to high demand areas.

## O-3304-03

### Tackling Offshore Oil & Gas GHG Emissions - Brazil's Experience

T. Bredariol (1); C. Guilherme (1); AC. Luiz (1)

(1) IBAMA, Cgpeg, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

There is growing evidence that human pressure is substantially raising the risks of crossing planetary thresholds, such as safe CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A viable future depends on mitigation and adaptation efforts in multiple fields and of special importance is the energy supply sector (IPCC, 2014). Estimates for the year of 2011 account for approximately 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas being vented or flared worldwide (GGFR, 2013). Although this is a decrease of almost 20% since 2005, there is still much space for further reduction and this downward trend is in danger of being reversed by a number of factors, including increase in oil production in several countries such as Brazil (GGFR, 2013). Only a few countries have introduced detailed secondary legislation regarding flare and vent emissions, such as codes and guidelines, even though it is paramount to effectively regulate this activity (World Bank, 2004). It is also a topic that interests the private sector (CDP, 2014). This work presents the experience of a Brazilian environmental unit (CGPEG) in building such legislation and mitigating GHG emissions from offshore oil and gas exploration and production.

CGPEG is a unit of IBAMA (Brazil's federal environmental agency) that is responsible for analyzing environmental authorization requests for seismic activities, drilling, and oil and gas production offshore. Since 2010, it has been working on climate change mitigation, limiting or requesting compensation for flare emissions - a common GHG source in offshore oil and gas production projects. Flares burn gas, mainly composed of methane, that remains after: power generation on the platforms; gas injection and/or gas lift in the wells; or gas export to land facilities - chiefly through sub-sea pipelines. In 2013, CGPEG issued a guideline regarding procedures for mitigating GHG emissions, with detailed legislation and current requirements in the environmental authorization process. Two main conditions are normally made for high emitting activities: flare limits (daily or for another stipulated period - such as the reckoned time necessary for oil production platform's commissioning); or compensation, which may be direct (e.g. reforestation projects) or indirect (financial contribution to climate funds, such as the Amazônia Fund). As a result, over less then five years, estimates indicate that at least 225,552 tCO2eq emissions have been avoided and 3,024.160 tCO2eq compensated (equivalent to -85,9x106 m³ of gas) generated over R$100 per m³ of emissions related to climate change. The industry has accompanied these developments, making gas and CO2 injection, closed flares and better commissioning plans a reality. Still there is a lot to be done towards more efficient energy practices.

References: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruka, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemmler, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

GGFR - Global Gas Flaring Reduction, 2013. The News Flare, Issue No. 14 September 2012 - June 2013. Available at: <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGGFR/Resources/GGFR_Gas_Flaring_Sep_2012_Jun_2013_FINAL.pdf>. Access: 19 Feb 2015.

World Bank. 2004. Regulation of associated gas flaring and venting: a global overview and lessons from international experience. Global gas flaring reduction - a public-private partnership. No. 3. Washington, DC. World Bank. Available at: <http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2004/07/16/000012009_20040716133951/Rendered/PDF/295540Regulations/No10301public1.pdf>. Access: 19 Feb 2015.

CDP - Carbon Disclosure Project, 2014. Connection between climate change and business models: an evolving agenda - CDP Brazil 100 Climate Change - October, 2014. Available at: <https://www.cdp.net/CDPResults/CDP-brasil-climate-change-report-2014-english.pdf>. Access: 19 Feb 2015.
# Design and Construction of Domestic Jatropha Oil Pressure Cooker

## C. Shonhiwa (1)

(1) University of Zimbabwe, Mechanical Engineering, Harare, Zimbabwe

Household energy for cooking accounts for a big part of overall energy consumption in developing countries such as Zimbabwe. In Zimbabwe 70% of total energy consumed is used for cooking purposes and in general wood is mainly used. The use of fire wood is resulting in deforestation of large areas creating severe ecological and environmental problems. Smoke from incomplete combustion poses health risks to humans and the environment. The Jatropha oil which is environmentally friendly is readily available in parts of Zimbabwe and can be used for cooking instead of the use of firewood, gas or electricity which are not readily and affordable to the ordinary Zimbabwean.

This work deals with the design and construction of Jatropha Oil Pressure Cooker. The design consists of the frame, piping system and air cylinder. By using the principles of Fluid Mechanics this work established the power of the cooker as 170kW and the cooker would burn 1 liter of Jatropha Oil in 4 minutes giving an energy value of 35.2MJ when operating at a constant pressure of 1.2mPa

# Remarks on electricity sector regulation in India

## G. Pradhan, (1) ; GOA. Pradhan Or Mathur (2)

(1) Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, Delhi, India;

(2) Department of Energy, Bureau of energy efficiency, Delhi, India

An invited introduction or presentation on the challenges of regulation major emerging developing economy with top priorities of basic regulatory reform and connection

# 3305 - Energy efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demand

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

## Energy Policy, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Climate Negotiations

### J. Sweeney (1)

(1) Stanford University, Precourt energy efficiency center, Stanford, United States of America

Nations have legitimate interests in the health and growth of their economy, in their domestic and international security, and in the environment. These are summarized as the "energy policy triangle." International agreements must respect these legitimate interests and nations are unlikely to comply with policy proposals that do not respect these interests. Nations must address both energy supply - expand low carbon energy sources - and energy consumption - reduce energy use per unit of economic activity.

There are at least seven classes of strategies to motivate energy efficiency and reductions in energy intensity: 1) Normal processes of economic innovation, 2) Information provision, 3) Nudges, 4) Stochastic rewards, 5) Financial incentives, 6) Competitions, 7) Regulation. There is no "silver bullet" for energy efficiency. This presentation will discuss these classes.

These options suggest recommended directions for international agreements: Each nation should 1) set a goal of economy-wide annual energy intensity reduction; 2) set a stronger goal of economy-wide annual carbon intensity reduction; 3) conduct/support energy efficiency and clean energy RD&D and promote open, broad communication of findings; 4) adopt some energy-efficiency behavioral incentives. Specific incentives will differ among nations, but should include among others: labeling of all major energy using equipment offered for sale; feedback of energy use to consumers; elimination of all subsidies for CO2-intense energy; internal carbon price applied broadly throughout economy.

## Industry: The Gordian knot of decarbonisation on the demand side?

### M. Fischedick (1)

(1) Wuppertal Institut, Wuppertal, Germany

The industry sector lies at the heart of the many governments decisions regarding the maintenance of wealth and the creation of employment. On the other hand, the industry sector accounted for over 30% of global GHG emissions in 2010. When compared to the major energy-end use sectors (transport, buildings, AFOLU), industry is currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions. The key energy intensive material-conversion sectors (cement, iron and steel, chemicals, pulp and paper and aluminium) dominate the energy use and emissions in industry. Most scenarios envisage a continuing rise in demand for materials, by between 45% to 60% by 2050, relative to 2010 production levels.

The transition from current patterns of industrial production to a future in which goods are produced sustainably requires a holistic view that goes beyond energy efficiency. From the perspective of climate change mitigation, opportunities can be found over the whole supply chain. Although currently sometimes difficult to quantify, there are significant potentials for reduction in emissions mainly through emissions efficiency (e.g. fuel switch), material efficiency in manufacturing (through reducing yield losses, re-use of materials and recycling of products), material efficiency in product design (less material per product), product-service efficiency (in transport through car sharing) and last but not least sustainable consumption patterns.

Against this background – as we move towards the question of how to achieve sustainable development goals – a more efficient use of energy, materials and products is without alternative in the sector and has to be addressed through appropriate global and sector specific policies.

However, implementation of existing measures is not a self-dynamic process and faces various challenges, even political trade offs. This holds true particularly for more ambitious long-term decarbonisation efforts as they might require not only improvements in existing production structures, but in addition a shift to low carbon electricity, carbon capture and storage or even implementation of completely new approaches (e.g. hydrogen based steel making) or radical product innovations (e.g., alternatives to cement) which might go hand in hand with persistence forces.

The presentation addresses the portfolio of options available, gives a brief overview of their technical and economic potentials, reflects synergies and tradeoffs that mitigation in the industry sector can have with other policy objectives. Discussion of long-term decarbonisation pathways are specifically addressed as they might play a crucial role for solving the Gordian knot.

The presentation will be mainly based on recently published industry chapter of the IPCC WG III report:

Fischedick, M. et al., 2014. Industry. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2014
Decarbonising demand by energy efficiency and material efficiency – why it is at the core of climate policy and how it could be achieved

S. Lechtenbohmer (1); LG. Giraudet (2)

(1) Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal, Germany; (2) Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (cited), Nogent sur Marne, France

Decarbonising energy supply is not sufficient to achieve sustainable, low carbon energy systems. A highly efficient use of energy has to be tackled much more serious if mitigation shall lead to successful decarbonisation. Only if energy demand can be stabilised or reduced there will be a realistic chance to convert supply towards sustainable sources.

Final energy demand stabilisation needs high exploitation of potentials in all sectors by low energy buildings, highly efficient building policies and vehicles as well as mainstreaming best available technology all over industry. Basic materials production – which is responsible for a significant share of energy demand, however already operates close to physical limits of current processes in many countries. Here new processes and break through technologies will be needed to achieve significant reductions of energy use. Further, on a global scale means of more efficient use of basic materials such as material efficiency as well as recycling will be indispensable.

All these challenges do need concerted action on a more streamlined policy for significantly increasing energy efficiency as well as decarbonising basic industry.

A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

S. Yu (1); L. Clarke (1); J. Eom (2); M. Evans (1)

(1) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint global change research institute, College Park, MD, United States of America; (2) KAIST Business School, Graduate school of green growth, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Building energy demand continues to increase globally, generating an unprecedented amount of CO2 emissions from the sector. The trend is not likely to wane anytime soon as a less developed part of the world grows at a rapid pace demanding the standards of living that its predecessors have experienced.

China is already the world's second largest building energy user. Building energy consumption in China is expected to grow at least for the next several decades, as the country undergoes rapid income and population growth, requiring continued expansion of building floorspace and installation of energy-consuming devices. This poses substantial challenges for the Chinese government to maintain a adequate supply of energy and for international society to address global climate change.

Development and implementation of building energy codes in China may be a sensible domestic strategy to fulfil building energy demand in an economically efficient way while at the same time reducing CO2 emissions. Building energy codes intend to promote energy efficient appliances and vehicles by setting legal requirements on building design and their compliance provisions during construction period. They usually include standards for thermal properties of building envelope and may also cover heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, lighting, electrical power, renewable, and building maintenance. The Chinese government has implemented building energy codes since 1980s with the particular focus on the improvement of envelope insulation. All new urban residential and commercial buildings are currently required to comply with Chinese building energy codes in both design and construction stages.

This paper investigates the potential long-term impact of China's building energy codes on building energy use

and CO2 emissions based on a detailed building energy model nested within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). In particular, the model represents the influence of building code implementation on the improvement of buildings shell efficiency and resulting energy demands. The model disaggregates Chinese buildings into 12 different sectors—three building types in four climate zones. Specifically, the impact of building energy codes is captured through a building stock module that describes the expansion of building floorspace as a result of new construction and retirement at the regional level, as well as the interaction of the building stock with building energy codes in place, code compliance, and the degree of retrofits. This modeling approach allows for assessing the effect of building energy codes on building energy demand and associated CO2 emissions in a consistent manner, while at the same time capturing the effects of regional differences in socioeconomic development, code implementation, climate impact, and fuel choices.

In this study, we focused on the long-term impacts of various types of building energy codes that are being contemplated or could be implemented by the Chinese government. Four distinct but interrelated scenarios of Chinese building energy codes were taken into account to span possible futures of the building sector to provide broader policy insights and to guide the development of building codes at the regional and national level. By examining the influence of two major policy variables—the coverage by building type and the stringency of the energy codes—we suggest the pathways that next generation building codes in China are advised to take.

This study draws three important conclusions. First, the implementation of building energy codes may substantially reduce overall building energy consumption in China, and this finding remains unchanged with global climate change, modest assumptions of voluntary technological improvement, and economy-wide carbon policy. Second, the Chinese government can see significant impacts from expanding its efforts to improve building shell efficiency beyond new buildings in urban centers. In particular, promoting retrofits of poorly performing buildings and expanding building energy codes to rural areas may result in earlier and more drastic energy savings. Finally, the potential impact of building energy codes will differ by region and sector. The greatest energy savings will accrue in urban residential buildings, particularly those located in cold regions.

Directed Technological Change and Energy Efficiency Improvements

W. Jan (1)

(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy

This paper applies the Directed Technical Change (DTC) framework to study improvements in the efficiency of energy use. We present a theoretical model which (1) highlights the drivers of innovative activity in energy intensive sectors and technologies and (2) examines the impact of such activity on the aggregate demand for energy. We then estimate the contribution of these channels through an empirical analysis of patents and energy data. Our contribution is fivefold. First, we show that information about energy expenditures, knowledge spillovers and the parameters governing the R&D process are sufficient to predict the R&D effort in efficiency-improving technologies. Second, we pin down the conditions for a log-linear relation between energy expenditure and the R&D effort. Third, the estimation of the model provides clear evidence that the value of the energy market as well as international and intertemporal spillover play a significant role in determining the level of innovative activity. Fourth, we show that innovative activity in energy intensive sectors shifts down the (Marshallian) demand for energy. Fifth, we show that due to the streamlined modelling framework we adopt, the point estimates from our regression can potentially be used to calibrate any model of DTC in the context of energy consumption.

Half the material for twice as long

J. Allwood (1)
(1) University of Cambridge, Department of engineering, Cambridge, United Kingdom

The energy intensive industries, which produce that bulk materials that sustain all contemporary living, are the most energy efficient in the world. They have always paid heavily for energy, so regardless of climate or other environmental concerns, they have pursued efficiency motivated only by cost. They have been very successful: the opportunities for future energy efficiency gains in the energy intensive industries are limited.

However, precisely because of their efficiency, the bulk materials are made very cheaply, and in particular are very cheap compared with labour costs in the supply chains which determine their use. As a result many decisions in construction and manufacturing are taken to minimise labour costs at the expense of increased material use. For example, in the UK we build commercial buildings with around twice the material required to meet the safety standards of the Eurocodes, and on average we replace buildings after just 40 years, when their structural integrity is absolutely sound. Our research is developing extensive evidence that we could live well by designing our buildings, infrastructure and goods to be made with half as much material and keeping them for twice as long. For much of this strategy, which would reduce demand for new bulk materials by 75% would be sufficient to achieve most industrial carbon mitigation targets, regardless of any future changes in the energy intensive industries themselves.

The talk will present our evidence about how to live well with much less new material and present our current understanding of the costs of this change: as the supply chain is already seeking to optimise costs, it will cost more labour to use less material. Policy has not as yet addressed this point, but it may well prove to be a more effective mechanism for reducing industrial emissions than focusing solely on the emissions of material production.

The background to this talk is summarised in:

(1) Allwood, J.M., Cullen, J.M. and Milford, R.L. (2010) Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050, Environmental Science and Technology, 44(6) 1888-1894. This paper sets out the evidence that there is limited future potential for energy efficiency in the energy intensive (bulk materials) industries.

(2) Allwood, J.M., Ashby, M.F., Gutowski, T.G., Worrell, E. (2011) Material Efficiency: a White Paper, Resources Conservation and Recycling, 55, 362-381. This paper provides a survey of the opportunity to live well with less new material production.

(3) Allwood J.M. and Cullen J.M. (2012) Sustainable Materials: with both eyes open, UIT Cambridge, England, pp. 384. This popular science book, which can be downloaded for free at www.withbothevesopen.com, sets out the detailed case for using less new material, based on a 5-year 8-person project with a 20-partner industrial consortium.

The talk will report the evidence gathered since these three publications about the implementation of Material Efficiency, in business, government and with final purchasers.

## O-3305-05

> "Joint crossing of the valleys of death"
> Exploring the need and options for formal collaboration between US ARPA-E and EU ETS' NER 400 to accelerate the commercialisation of low-carbon breakthrough technologies in the energy and industrial sectors

T. Wyns (1)

(1) Institute for European Studies, VUB, Brussels, Belgium

This paper seeks to demonstrate that there exists a policy complementarity between the US ARPA-E and the EU Emissions Trading System (New Entrants Reserve 300) funding programmes for energy innovation. Both programmes seem to be addressing two different technology market gaps. The next step is to assess if and how this complementarity could be turned into a

joined opportunity for the US and the EU to accelerate the commercialisation of low-carbon breakthrough technologies in the energy and (energy intensive) industrial sectors.

Achieving decarbonisation of the EU and US economies over the next decades will require an accelerated improvement and wide-scale deployment of low-carbon energy and industrial technologies. There are also important market gaps that can be addressed. The further development of promising breakthrough technologies. These gaps are known as the early stage "Technological Valley of Death" and the later-stage "Commercialisation Valley of Death". These barriers are strongly present in the energy sector. (Jenkins, Mansur 2010, p.3)

In 2007, the US Congress authorised the establishment of the Advanced Research Project Agency - Energy (ARPA-E). The ARPA-E, modeled on the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), seeks to advance high-potential, high-impact energy technologies that are too early for private-sector investment. Since 2009, ARPA-E has funded over 360 potentially transformational energy technology projects, including projects that aim to significantly reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in energy intensive industries (e.g. the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors). However, while successfully moving technologies across the early stage valley of death to the prototype or small scale demonstration stage, the ARPA-E does lack the means to enable the commercialisation of breakthrough technologies that are emerging from its programmes (Bonvillian, Van Atta 2011, p. 471-472).

In 2008, as part of the legislative review of the EU ETS for the period 2013-2020, a new entrants reserve containing 300 million allowances (NER 300) to be auctioned under the EU ETS New Entrants Reserve was established. The revenues generated through this reserve have the goal to finance low-carbon energy demonstration projects. The programme is conceived as a catalyst for the demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative renewable energy (RES) technologies on a commercial scale within the European Union. Hence, the EU ETS NER is tackling the second 'commercialisation' stage of the technological valley of death. In October 2014, the European Union's head of state and government agreed to continue this NER after 2020 and to expand it to 400 million allowances and to energy intensive industrial sectors. Successful implementation of this NER 400 will depend on the availability of promising energy and industrial low-carbon breakthrough technologies at pre-deployment. This is a relevant gap. However, since there appears to be a first stage technology market gap in the EU or at least a gap in the development of first stage low-carbon breakthrough technologies in the EU compared to US based developments and in particular the ARPA-E programmes.

These «commercialisation» and «early stage» technology market gaps identified respectively under the EU ETS and the EU'S NER 300, can become a policy opportunity if both programmes start working together. Technologies emerging from ARPA-E could make use of the NER programme to enable full-scale commercialisation and vice versa, the EU's NER could secure a broader (and maybe lower risk) project pipeline from promising low-carbon breakthrough technologies fostered under the ARPA-E. A bilateral «technology» agreement between the U.S. government and the EU's institutions could be considered. Such an agreement will need to address some specific issues, such as the use and sharing of intellectual property rights and the introduction of a waiver under the ARPA-E's U.S. manufacturing requirement. The latter element is crucial since ARPA-E requires inventions developed under ARPA-E funding agreements to be substantially manufactured in the United States.

Jenkins, J., & Mansur, S. (2010). Bridging the clean energy valleys of death. Power.

Bonvillian, W. B., & Van Atta, R. (2011). ARPA-E and DARPA: Applying the DARPA model to energy innovation. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 36(5), 469-513.

## O-3305-06

> Challenges for decarbonising basic industry: Sustainable transition of industries under competition

M. Ahman (1); LJ. Nilsson (2); S. Lechtenböhmer (3)
(1) Lund University, Department of environment and energy systems, Lund, Sweden; (2) Lund University, Department for technology and society / environment and energy systems, Lund, Sweden; (3) Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal, Germany

Decarbonizing the energy intensive production of basic materials such as steel, cement, petrochemicals, and aluminum pose specific challenges.

This session presents the specific challenges for the global basic materials industry in light of the evolving global climate policy framework and discusses the opportunities that material and energy efficiency along the value chain can have. However, we also highlight the long term need for radical shifts in energy carriers and feedstock changes that an ambitious climate policy will induce.

The energy-intensive production of basic materials are traded on a global market and the production is highly exposed to increasing energy and carbon costs. At the same time, the global framework for climate policy suggest that a level playing field in terms of a global carbon price cannot be expected the short to medium term, if ever. This poses a serious challenge to effectively address industrial emissions with a "price-only" approach.

The demand for basic materials are set to increase substantially with increasing material standards across the world. Recycling and material efficiency can reduced the demand growth for virgin materials. The circulation in the economy of recycled materials will offer some efficiency gains and change the energy carriers (towards electricity). However the production of basic materials from recycled feedstock will but still be considered an energy-intensive industry.

The energy-intensive industry is also unique in that investment cycles are very long, usually spanning over 20 to 40 years between reinvestment opportunities in core process steps. The D C target and the year 2050 is thus only 1 to 2 major investment decisions away. Thus, in order to make more substantial changes to process design, a long term strategy is needed.

In order to manage a smooth and both socially and politically acceptable transition for both industrialized, transitional and developing countries, we suggest that focusing on material and energy efficiency as a win-win option. Efficiency has the potential to boost competitiveness and overall economic performances if implemented properly and should thus be at the center of a global strategy. However, efficiency has to be complemented with a technology strategy focusing on more radical changes that requires major innovation efforts and eventually new investment decisions in new basic process designs such as electrowinning, bio or electro-plastics, CCS in industry e.t.c.

## 3305-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3305-01

#### Future pathways to a low carbon steel industry - The case of Germany till 2035

M. Arens (1); E. Worrell, (2); W. Eichhammer (3)

(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Energy Technology and Energy Systems, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of innovation, environmental and energy sciences, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Energy policy and energy markets, Karlsruhe, Germany

We analyse the diffusion factors which give explanations for innovation behaviour of individual firms in the German iron and steel industry. First, we analyse the diffusion of three energy efficient technologies for primary steelmaking (EET) from their introduction until today (top-pressure recovery turbine (TRT), basic oxygen furnace gas recovery (BOFGR) and pulverised coal injection (PCI)). We derive the uptake of these technologies both at the national level and of individual firms. Second, we analyse the impact of drivers and barriers on the decision making process of individual firms whether or not to implement these technologies. Thereby we focus on the impact of current policies (e.g. European Emission Trading System, levy for

renewable energy, European Emission Directive). We give a short insight into site specific factors which shape the economics of the selected EETs. Our analysis ends with summary and conclusions.

### P-3305-02

#### The role of the Construction Sector in decreasing global energy needs

L. Bourdeau (1)

(1) ECTP-E2BA, Brussels, Belgium

A key European employer and contributor to quality of life and a major energy

consumer and CO2 provider

Worth at least EUR 1.2 trillion of yearly turnover (2011), the European construction sector, including its extended value chain (e.g. material and equipment manufacturers, construction and service companies), is the largest European single activity (9.6 % GDP) and biggest industrial employer (14.6 million direct or indirect employees, 30.7 % of industrial employment, 43.8 million indirect workers). The built environment affects the quality of life and work of all EU-citizens.

Buildings use 40 % of total EU energy consumption and generate 36 % of greenhouse gases in Europe. The construction sector is on its critical path to decarbonise the European economy by 2050, reducing its CO2 emissions by at least 80 % and its energy consumption by as much as 50 %. As the replacement rate of the existing stock is very small (1-2 % per year), acceleration is urgently needed.

Strategic and general objectives

The vision of the construction sector is to drive the creation of a high-tech building industry which turns energy efficiency into a sustainable business. Connecting construction industry to other built environment system suppliers and stakeholders would be the decisive step to reach economic, social and environmental goals. By creating and fostering a research driven paradigm shift, the construction industry would become competitive on a global level in the design, construction and operation of the built environment while sustaining local economies through job creation and skills enhancement, driven by the vast majority of SMEs active in the value chain. In this framework, the strategic objectives of the sector are to:

* Develop technologies and solutions enabling to speed up the reduction in energy use and GHG emission, e.g. through a higher renovation rate of the building stock at lower cost and to meet regulatory needs;

* Develop energy efficiency solutions in order to turn the building industry into a knowledge-driven sustainable business, with higher productivity and higher skilled employees;

* Develop innovative and smart systemic approaches for green buildings and districts.

This would ultimately create a solid foundation for continuous innovation in the building sector through sustainable partnerships, fostering an innovation ecosystem across value chains, which is not project based with episodic innovation activities as current practices.

The Public-Private Partnership on Energy Efficient Buildings (PPP EeB)

The Energy-efficient Buildings (EeB) Public Private Partnership (PPP) is a joint initiative of the European Commission (EC) and the Energy Efficient Buildings Association (E2BA). This initiative aims to promote research on new methods and technologies to reduce the energy footprint and CO2 emissions related to new and retrofitted buildings across Europe. The EeB PPP was set up under EP7 and recognises the importance of research in Europe to achieve Europe's targets of job creation and competitiveness, and to maintain leadership in the global knowledge economy. During Horizon 2020, a contractual PPP has been agreed between the E2BA and the European Commission to continue investing in research and innovation.

The research projects respond to EU priorities for new technologies, tools and systems, materials, information
and communication technologies and retrofitting and renovation methodologies in order to achieve energy-efficient buildings. The projects demonstrate scientific and technological excellence across all levels from early stage conception through to demonstration of the potential for commercialisation.

110 projects have been funded so far through the EeB PPP under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

## P-3305-03

# Determination of Optimum Imbibition for the Milling Process in Sugar Factories with Consideration of Trade-offs among Sugar Extraction, Power Production, and Water Use

### S. Chantasiriwan (1)

(1) Thammasat University, Mechanical Engineering, Pathum Thani, Thailand

Manufacturing of raw sugar from sugar canes requires many processes. From energy viewpoint, three important processes are sugarcane growth and exploration (which includes crystallization). Milling is the process in which juice is extracted from sugarcane cane. The outputs of the milling unit are sugar juice and bagasse. Juice is sent to the evaporation process, in which, eventually, water is separated from raw sugar. Bagasse is used as the fuel in the steam generation process, which produces steam needed to evaporate juice in the evaporation process. Since the amount of bagasse required for producing power steam is much smaller than the amount of bagasse produced from the milling process, most sugar factories install high-pressure boilers so that high-pressure steam can be used to produce power in either back-pressure or extraction-condensing turbines. Low-pressure steam from turbines is then used in the process. Electrical power obtained from the cogeneration system usually exceeds the demand for internal use in the factory. The excess power is, therefore, exported to the national grid.

In order to increase juice extraction in the milling process, imbibition water is added to the milling unit. More imbibition water results in more thermal energy required to evaporate diluted sugar juice in the evaporation process. Furthermore it results in bagasse with more moisture. Combustion of wet bagasse leads to more only less production of power because some of the thermal energy from combustion is required to evaporate the moisture in bagasse but also more water loss because evaporated moisture is eventually exhausted to the environment with flue gas. Most sugar factories focus only on sugar extraction when selecting the amount of imbibition. Previous investigations have pointed out that the amount of imbibition should be reduced in order to attain the optimum mix of sugar production and power production. In fact, in terms of profit generation, imbibition should be less as the ratio of the profit from sugar production to the profit from power generation decreases.

In the current study, conservation of water is also considered, along with production of sugar and power. The direct effect of the amount imbibition on water use in form of imbibition water is apparent. It also affects water indirectly through the amount of water required to grow sugar canes. Conservation of water has rarely been taken into account by sugar factories. However, as climate change causes scarcity of fresh water in certain part of the world, sugar factories located there will eventually find it necessary to attach economic value to water, and the results of the current study will be of benefit to them. The main objective of this study is to determine the amount of imbibition that will yield the optimum mix of sugar production, power generation, and water use. To reach this objective, mathematical models of milling, steam generation, evaporation, and power generation units are developed, along with interactions between them through mass and energy balances. Results of simulation are presented in charts that show variations of optimum imbibition with important parameters.

## P-3305-04

# The role of energy efficiency in meeting UK carbon targets

### U. Collier (1)

(1) Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom

The United Kingdom was the first country to legislate ambitious climate change targets through its 2008 Climate Change Act. The Committee on Climate Change was set up to advice on the level of the carbon targets and on specific opportunities to achieve them.

This presentation will examine the role of energy efficiency in the Committee's carbon budget advice, focusing on the buildings sector. Buildings account for 37% of UK greenhouse gas emissions and with an ageing building stock, there is much scope for efficiency improvement. Furthermore, improving buildings energy efficiency has various co-benefits, including the alleviation of fuel poverty. This is of particular importance as the decarbonisation policies are expected to raise energy prices. Energy efficiency therefore plays a crucial role in keeping bills affordable.

The presentation will cover both analytical and policy issues. On the analytical side, we will discuss how the Committee estimates abatement potential from energy efficiency, what data limitations we have encountered and what work is underway to overcome them. We will also present our estimates of the impact of decarbonisation policies on energy prices and bills, and the scope for energy efficiency to offset these.

On the policy side, we will look at the UK Government's current energy efficiency policy for buildings and assess what further action is needed to meet carbon budgets. We will highlight the importance of a holistic approach to energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation.

## P-3305-05

# Energy Sufficiency in Rural Areas - The example of French TEPOS

### M. Dreyfus (1)

(1) CNRS - CERAPS, Lille, France

Scholars and policy-makers have now widely acknowledged the key role of local governments and local initiatives in tackling climate change. In fact, for a long time climate change was seen as a global issue, ignoring the fact that its impacts are actually experienced at the local level. Yet thanks to the activities of audacious and resourceful cities as well as to the establishment of powerful transnational networks, the activities of local governments slowly got the attention of policy-makers and researchers.

In governance studies, several theoretical frameworks can be used to discuss the activities undertaken by local governments. The oldest is led by prof. Ostrom who developed with her colleagues, the concept of polycentric governance systems (Ostrom 2010, 2014). The idea is that solutions lie at the local level in the interactions of a multitude of stakeholders, public and private. Multi-level governance theories (Jordan et al. 2011; Schreurs et al. 2018; Corfion-Mot et al. 2009; Schroeder and Bulkeley 2009) focus on local governments and cities as important players through their responsibilities in the provision of services and infrastructures. Authors highlight the importance of the cooperation of these local authorities through transnational networks.

A common question addressed by these various theories is the relevant scale of action to address climate change. A lot of studies now report cities initiatives, a relevant field of studies because of their important contribution to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Yet smaller local governments and rural authorities are also taking action. The aim of this presentation is precisely to explore what is being done in rural territories to address the challenge of climate change.

This presentation therefore introduces TEPOS ("Positive Energy Territories" or in French "Territoires à énergie positive"). These are rural areas, "territories", which intend to achieve energy sufficiency. The "territory" can refer to a single commune, a group of communes or higher level of local governments' associations such as "pays" or national
The main goal of TEPOS is to increase energy efficiency and to cover the entire local demand through renewable, locally produced, energy. They have a systemic approach considering environmental benefits along with social and economic ones. The purpose is to start a transition towards less fossil-fuel energy use, involving all the stakeholders present on the territory, citizens, companies and businesses, but also representatives of national and other public authorities. Excess in energy production may be delivered to other units, in particular urban areas, creating an interesting rural-urban partnership.

A network of TEPOS allows awareness-raising and sharing experiences between TEPOS and other local stakeholders. TEPOS are also part of a European network called 100% RES communities.

Many lessons can be drawn from this innovative experiment. On the basis of cases examples, I will address the following questions:

* What are the drivers of the TEPOS projects?

* What concrete measures are taken to mitigate GHG emissions?

* What concrete measures are taken to adapt to climate change?

* What legal tools (in particular what kind of companies: public ownership, semi-public, private or citizens ownerships) are used?

* How rural and urban authorities cooperate?

* How influent is the participation to a peer network?

Answers to these questions will hopefully help identifying good practices, inspiring for other stakeholders in different contexts.

## P-3305-06

### Impacts of Energy Efficiency Improvements in Transportation Sector on Future Emissions and Air Quality in Thailand

S. Garivait (1); P. Cheewaphongphan, (1); A. Junpen, (1); TBT. Pham (1); T. Boonman, (1); S. Chatani, (2)

(1) JGSE, KMUTT, Environmental Division, Bangkok, Thailand; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

As other developing countries in Asia, Thailand is accomplishing rapid economic growth during the last decades. The expanding economic activities have resulted in significant increase of energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as well as heavy air pollution. Transportation, especially related to on-road, has been recognized as the top energy consuming sector since the beginning of 1990s. Also, it has been forecasted that energy efficiency improvements in this sector would contribute to the highest energy saving, up to more than 16,000 ktoe in 2030, and consequently to a significant national petroleum oil import reduction.

In this study, we evaluate the impacts of current and possible future on-road transport emissions on air quality in Thailand from 2010 to 2050. Ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM) are selected as indicators of air quality, because they are recognized as the two major air pollutants both in urban and rural areas in the country. To this end, we first developed the Thailand's emission inventory of all sources using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)-Model. We develop two possible scenarios of future emissions: a scenario where technologies and legislations are the same as those applied in 2010 (BAU), and a scenario where energy efficiency improvements are applied following the national Energy Efficiency Development Plan 2012-2035 (EEDP). The EEDP scenario has been selected as it constitutes the latest policy formulated by the Thai government, and consequently represents the case that would possibly occur in 2030 onward. In order to analyze and evaluate the national air quality response to on-road transport emissions in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2050, we set up an air quality modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF/CAMx).

We will evaluate the model 2010 results with observations obtained from the 64 air quality monitoring stations operated by the Pollution Control Department (PCD), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Thailand. The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), primary particulate matter with diameters lesser than 10 microns and 2.5 microns (PM10 and PM2.5), and their components including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) in 2010 will be analyzed versus those found for BAU and EEDP in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The emission reductions from BAU to EEDP scenarios will be described and discussed to assess the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures put in place. Changes in O3 and PM from 2010 to 2050 will be presented and discussed to evaluate the impacts of future emissions on the air quality improvement.

## P-3305-07

### Sustainable building: Passive House combined with renewable energy

J. Grove-Smith (1); F. Wolfgang (2); B. Krick, (1)

(1) Passive House Institute, Darmstadt, Germany; (2) University of Innsbruck, Institute for structural engineering and material sciences, Innsbruck, Austria

This contribution will highlight the importance of energy efficiency as most important measure to address the impact of buildings on climate change. It further explores the correlations between energy efficiency and renewable energy in the context of sustainable use of available resources. Specific project examples and regional approaches will be presented to illustrate the potential impact, e.g. experiences from the EU-wide project PassRE supported by Intelligent Energy Europe.

Over a third of the total energy consumed in developed countries is required for operating buildings, especially to heat them. This consumption can be reduced by up to 90% using Passive House technology, and the remaining demand can be met sustainably using renewable energy. The Passive House (PH) has proven itself as a reliable building standard with significant energy savings in a range of climates with more than 50 000 units built worldwide. Hence, the Passive House Standard is not just an attractive solution for the energy transition; combined with renewable energies it is also a blueprint for the Nearly Zero-Energy Building (NZEB) stipulated in the European Buildings Directive, which will come into effect in 2021.

In order to provide reliable guidance for the combination of energy efficiency and renewable energy (RE), new assessment categories are being introduced by the Passive House Institute:

* PH Classic: The established Passive House Standard

* PH Plus: Increased level of overall energy efficiency and some RE production

* PH Premium: Very high level of overall energy efficiency and significant amounts RE production

The approach for the assessment of PH classes specifically does not promote the simple annual offset of on-site energy demand and energy production in context only of the individual project. Direct offsetting disregards important aspects such as energy losses due to storage and space availability for RE production. The Passive House assessment is thus based on a contextualised methodology, which anticipates the energy transition and considers the building in an environment where only renewable energy is used. In this scenario, primary electricity is produced only from renewable sources. Some of this electricity can be used directly; storage capacities are however needed to buffer surplus RE energy so that it can be used during time periods with less RE availability. This temporary energy storage always implies losses, especially if it needs to bridge long-term energy compensations, e.g. seasonal effects from surplus RE supply during summer to cover RE shortfall during winter. Depending on the type of energy applicable, the amount of required storage varies, and thus the associated losses. Based on these interrelationships, new weighting factors are being introduced: the so-called PER factors (Primary Energy Renewable). The PER factor for domestic electricity use, for example, is comparatively low because the demand is fairly constant throughout the year and thus the share of electricity that can be used without
intermediate storage is high. Energy demand for heating, on the other hand, occurs only in winter, which calls for seasonal energy storage and thus results in a high PER factor.

The assessment approach emphasises the importance of efficiency when it comes to heating energy, which is exactly what the Passive House Standard stands for. Efficiency in this sector has the highest potential of putting energy resources (e.g. renewable electricity) to use responsibly and thus mitigating the impact of buildings on climate change.

## Integration Assessment of China's Energy Efficiency: Index Decomposition and Frontier Approach Applications

J. Jiang (1); Z. Tao, (1); R. Sheng, (1)

(1) Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing, China

Policies for improving energy efficiency are one of the most effective ways to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of energy and to relieve environmental pressures for the Chinese Government. Because of several indicators to measure energy efficiency, resulting in different evaluation effects of policy implementation. First, this paper compares the energy efficiency measures from the supply side and demand side of energy, that is, a single element of energy efficiency and energy efficiency based on total factor productivity (TFP) estimates. In order to study the effects of energy efficiency change and its driving factors, the paper adopts index decomposition models and frontier approach, the former implies that production is effective, and the later provides a variety of frontier estimation methods, including non-parametric estimation of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and parameter estimation of stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Based on China's latest available statistical data, the paper applies Divisa index decomposition to two different definition of energy intensity, e.g. final energy consumption per unit value added of industries, per capita residential energy consumption; then, using DEA of the total factor, compared to the total energy consumption, energy efficiency and empirical research on the driving factors of energy efficiency. Finally, based on model results, it presented energy efficiency policy implications at macro and industry level.

Taking into account the final energy consumption does not include the intermediate conversion process energy consumption, compared to the total energy consumption, this paper argues that final energy consumption can be used to more accurately reflect the energy efficiency of various industries, defines industrial energy intensity as ratio to final energy consumption to industrial value added. Since only 6 industries have detailed statistical data on energy consumption by fuel type, this article analyzes only 6 industries energy efficiency; for residential energy, the average residential energy consumption defined as household energy efficiency. Energy balance tables of 1996-2012 in China energy Statistical Yearbook and other data, 6 industry and residential energy efficiency used Divisa index AMDI model decomposing, results showed that economic policy and energy policy factors in different periods on energy efficiency change play different roles with different contribution rates. In terms of per capita residential energy, economic development and the improvement of building energy efficiency play a major role.

Total factor energy efficiency, that evaluates energy efficiency during economic production process, is considered energy as one of production elements input with labor, and capital together, while also considered «bad» outputs, such as CO₂, wastewater, that is, model development is under environmental regulation of constraint. The paper uses directional distance function of DEA method to estimate industrial energy efficiency, and empirical analysis on effects factors of energy efficiency. Preliminary results show that overall China's energy efficiency tends to decline, but with the implementation of energy-efficiency policies in recent years, beginning in 2007 on energy efficiency has gone up. From the perspective of industry, increased industrial energy efficiency is quite obvious, while transportation, agriculture showed a downward trend. Analysis the economic development and foreign direct investment (FDI)

of influencing factors shows a significant positive impact on total factor energy efficiency, while endowment structure has a negative effect, reflecting the disadvantages of excessive capital input. Industrial structure, energy prices and environmental regulation have the negative effects on energy efficiency, due to the imbalance of regional development in China, as well as the energy market is not perfect, this section needs further in-depth analysis.

Acknowledgments: This paper was based on work supported by National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2012CB955801, and Scholar Program of Innovation Project in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2014-2018).

## P-3305-09

### How to achieve climate stability in cultural heritage buildings despite climate changes

J. Käferhaus (1)

(1) Käferhaus GmbH, Vienna, Austria

In future we cannot afford any longer our energy bills especially in museums, castles and other historic buildings with need in climate stability especially under negative auspicious of climate change, which means warmer outdoor climate in future.

So far our one-dimensional thinking in 'repairing' wrong development by big machinery is no longer a suitable method because of lack of money and common cutbacks of energy budgets for cultural heritage.

As past has shown very old and unique artifacts in historic buildings have overcome very long periods of about 500 to 900 years - also with very warm periods - without any technical support or cooling units what so ever. The exceptional 'Altar of Verdun', a masterpiece of enamel work of 1188 in Stift Klostереbburg, close to Vienna, as well as the unique collection of all kinds of artifacts of Carl Gustay Wrangel in the Swedish Castle of Skokloster and Ambras Castle, Innsbruck, with its famous painting gallery are best examples how big building masses keep valuable masterpieces in constant climate conditions in the sense of preventive conservation.

Big masses of historic buildings mostly give best shelter against summer heat. Hot summer outside temperatures mostly will be compensated by colder nights and the buffering capacity of huge walls. Often summer night cooling through natural ventilation will improve this sustainable effect.

In order to reach moderate summer indoor temperatures natural ventilation as well as best possible outside shading in accordance with monument authority's prescriptions will reduce indoor heat achieving acceptable indoor conditions when indoor loads also will be reduced accordingly.

Also winter heating in historic buildings could be reduced similar to low energy consumption buildings with pure radiation heat by warming up building masses. With pure radiation heat energy bills in historic buildings could be cut to half. Also with warm shell negative consequences of rising damp, mould or condensation on cold walls could be avoided as the following famous examples proof vividly:

Einsiedeln Monastery with an underground store room for precious, historic books and an old library, heated by waste heat of electronic data processing;

Museum of Fine Arts, Vienna, showroom IV, got rid of mould and cut energy bill by half;

Academy of Fine Arts, Vienna, and store room in the basement, heated by pure radiation heat got best indoor climate stability;

Church in Gerling in the country of Salzburg got a pure, damage preventive heating with solar support

Chapel in Schönbrunn Castle, Vienna, during EU project 'SMooHS' got simple wall heating, dry walls and indoor climate stability with only small winter heating.

Keywords: sustainability, energy-saving, indoor climate stability, museums climate, preventive conservation
# Promoting Renewable Energy in India for Sustainable Agriculture: Issues and Challenges

N. Kaur (1) ; R. Kaur (2)

(1) Panjab University, Public administration department, Chandigarh, India; (2) Panjab University, Public Administration Department, Mohali, Punjab, India

Agriculture and its allied sectors constitute as the largest livelihood provider to and also contributes to 18 per cent of GDP. India accounts for 17% of the world population but has only 4% share in energy consumption and within this very little share of renewable energy usage. (Pillai and Banerjee 2009). The state of Punjab occupies less than 2 per cent of geographical area but accounts for 17 per cent of wheat and 11 per cent rice production in national pool. Inspite of green revolution, desertification, land degradation in the form of depletion of soil fertility, reduction in groundwater table and furthermore less supply of electricity and wider gap in demand and power supply of power had aggravated the problems of the small and marginal farmers.

The statistical facts regarding degradation of land and non-availability of continuous power supply depicts the volatile picture of crumbling agriculture sector and its impact on sustainable livelihood. In order to address the problems, Government of India has formulated many policies and programmes at Union level and State level like National Mission on Energy Efficiency, Biomass Energy for Rural India, Solar and Wind Energy Projects. It had also set up various institutes and organisations i.e. The Solar Energy Centre, A Centre for Wind Energy Technology and Solar Energy Corporation of India. These institutes works for promotion of renewable energy resources and works with collaboration with State Governments and other allied departments.

An Attempt has been made in this paper to assess the implementation of various initiatives of Government of India to address the complex problems of degradation of environment and promotion of renewable energy resources. This Paper is written by using secondary sources. The data is collected from Annual Reports of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India, Bureau of Energy Efficiency and Annual Reports of State Governments, books, journals, internet, websites of agencies who are involved in Energy Conservation in India. NSOT is used to assess the implementation of Promotion of Renewable resources in India.

The finding clearly reflects that Innovations for use of renewable energy must be promoted through community based financial organisations (CBFOS), co-operative societies and in order have to make access to these programmes to farmers. Well organised programmes must be organised at village level in order in increase awareness and access of the farmers. Building communication between people can only help in dissemination of techniques for using wind and solar energy for energy generation.

Strategic interventions by the state through policies and programmes for use of renewable energy and active participation of farmers in implementation will pave the way towards the sustainable agriculture by using renewable resources of energy generation.

# Toward a Development and Co-Benefits Focused INDC for India

R. Khosla (1) ; N. Dubash (1) ; KR. Sharma (1) ; N. Rao (2)

(1) Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India; (2) IIASA, Energy, Laxenburg, Austria

India's response to global climate change is rooted in meeting the country's development needs, and aspires to be consistent with its sustainable development objectives. This is articulated as a co-benefits approach in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in India's National Action Plan on Climate Change. The approach emphasizes measures which promote development objectives such as the ability to provide sufficient energy,

ensure access to quality energy for all, address energy security and local environmental concerns such as air pollution, land and water use, while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively. In light of this context, our paper examines recent projections for India's possible energy and climate futures by synthesizing and comparing the outcomes of seven policy salient modeling studies from India. The analysis illustrates the limited extent to which the available studies inform an achievement of co-benefits that should underpin India's energy and emissions approach. It also identifies the basis for focusing on key areas of mitigation potential and those of uncertainty that require further analysis. The range of projections is assessed, including the reasons for the range. Based on an assessment of recent energy studies, the second part of the paper develops a methodology to overcome the existing limitations of the studies with respect to characterizing co-benefits. We delve into a single sector and use the case of energy efficiency in India's buildings, which has amongst the highest mitigation potentials, to showcase an approach to operationalizing co-benefits. A multi-criteria decision analysis framework is used. The results are based on a range of stakeholder views and a detailed evaluation of trade-offs (economic, technological, institutional) which can be required when selecting between different policy options. Approaching mitigation options using the showcased framework makes policy actions comparable and also takes into account questions of implementation and feasibility, which model results alone are not able to address. In examining the building energy efficiency case, the paper provides a proof-of-concept of operationalizing co-benefits which can be extended to other sectors. Importantly, it demonstrates how India's climate commitment in the form of an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution can be built around a bottom-up analysis of various domestic sectoral actions that achieve multiple objectives. The framework takes into account the work presents an approach to climate and development for India that is a combination of an economy-wide metric (which does not rely on only one modeling output), and a set of analytical sectoral actions with a consideration of co-benefits and resulting tradeoffs. Such an approach lends robustness and credibility to India's domestic and international climate and development stance. The paper is amongst the early studies that attempts to further the literature beyond co-benefits conceptualization to its actual operationalization in the context of low carbon planning.

# ICT is part of climate change ! Can we reduce its impact and apply good practices and tools to others society domains ?

L. Lefevre (1) ; F. Berthoud (2) ; C. Gossart (3)

(1) Inria, Lyon, France; (2) CNRS, Lmpcm, umr5493, cnrs/ujf, Grenoble, France; (3) Institut Mines-Télécom, Evry, France

Information Communication and Technology comprises a variety of heterogeneous technical products : datacenters, networks and myriad of fixed and mobile terminal equipments. The power world consumption of ICT was around 112 GWatts in 2013 (divided between in near equivalent datacenters, networks and end-users equipments. The amount of dispersed CO2 is considered as equivalent to the aviation industry. This pollution and associated energy consumption is constantly and rapidly growing. As any other industrial technology and product, ICT equipments face a complex lifecycle from the design (with rare metals), transport, to the usage and (possible) recycling. This worldwide lifecycle is responsible to consequent greenhouses gases production.

This oral contribution will follow and present a complete life cycle approach applied to ICT :

- Most of numerical models do not take into account greenhouse gases production during design and transport phase. This talk will explore technological issues in a range of ICT equipments. The usage of rare metals and their impact on planet level must be taken into account. Potential impact for extended product life and repairing possibilities will be discussed. A focus will be provided on relevant examples from eco-aware industry.

A lot of research initiatives (academic and industrial) are currently focused on energy efficiency during usage phase. This talk will review some of the most recent and present their potential of impact at large scale. We will review
the challenges in energy monitoring of large distributed computing systems) from clouds to networks supporting BigData scenarios) and proposed associated metrics, code of conducts and best practices examples. Some rebound effects will be explored. Major hardware and software based energy saving capabilities will be analyzed and discussed.

- Worldwide, most of current ICT equipments are not (even partially) properly recycled. But properly processing electronic waste is mandatory if we want to efficiently influence ICT lifecycle. This talk will present some examples and explore the effect of applying good practices in recycling.

As second part, this presentation will also explore potential energy savings provided by ICTs, which can impact other society domains at a new scale. From vision to concrete to social networking, ICT can support new range of services helping to reduce their potential impact on climate change. But these services must be carefully exposed and analyzed in order to support a full understanding of their benefits.

## P-3305-13

### An ex-ante quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap

E. Ó Broin (1); É. Mata, (2); J. Nässén, (2); F. Johnsson, (2) (1) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; (2) Chalmers University of Technology, Energy and environment, Göteborg, Sweden

This work presents a methodology for estimating ex-ante the energy efficiency gap and key related energy system parameters. An ex-ante quantification of the 'energy efficiency gap' is defined as the difference between market and techno-economic potentials. The ex-ante market potential is estimated from coefficients established with a top-down (ecometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970 to 2005 (Ó Broin et al., 2015). The ex-ante techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS) that assesses the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures (Mata et al., 2013). We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030.

Background: The true size of the energy efficiency gap remains unclear (Gillingham and Palmer, 2014). Findings from research on the energy efficiency gap could help policy makers generate social and private benefits from accelerating the diffusion of energy-efficient technologies (Gerarden et al., 2014). Although the general thrust of contemporary research on the energy efficiency gap is focusing on empirical studies that describe decision making among heterogeneous energy-users (Gillingham and Palmer, 2014) the authors of this work believe that there is also a need for system-level or sector-level studies which can give insights into key system-level parameters affecting the adoption of efficiency technologies, such as energy prices and discount rates. Furthermore, although the historical failure of the techno-economic energy efficiency potentials to be realised has been well documented ex-post, few, if any, studies have undertaken an ex-ante measure of potentials with the intent of learning from the comparison of the market and techno-economic potentials.

Results: In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand of 21 TWh. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 31 TWh. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap calculated of 10 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. Conversely a doubling of the historic rate of support for technology diffusion and conservation through, for example, support schemes and regulations, would render the results from the top-down modelling identical to those from the bottom-up modelling.

Increasing energy prices as a policy measure, as implemented in this work, does not lead to significant additional savings, as shown by the top-down model. The combination of high energy prices and a long-term price elasticity of -0.29 would ceteris paribus result in a decrease in demand of only 4 TWh by Year 2030 as compared to a low energy price scenario. This suggests that while higher

energy prices may achieve a global carbon target or cover the requirements of a Pigovian tax, at the residential sector level they are not so effective. The findings of this work i.e. the magnitude of the implicit discount rate; the price elasticity; and the size of efficiency gap; provide useful guidelines for policy formulation to meet individual country and regional climate and energy goals.

References: Gerarden, T.D., Newell, R.G., Stavins, R.N., & Stowe, R.C. (2014). An Assessment of the Energy-Efficiency Gap and its Implications for Climate-Change Policy. Discussion Paper ES 2014-3, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements. Cambridge, Mass. Available from: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/es-03-gerarden-etal2.pdf

Gillingham, K. & Palmer, K. (2014). Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap: Policy Insights from Economic Theory and Empirical Evidence. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret021

Mata, E., Sasic Kalagasidis, A., & Johnsson, F. (2013). Energy usage and potential for energy saving measures in Swedish households. Energy Policy. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.023

Ó Broin E., Mata É., Nässén J., & Johnsson F. (2015). Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector. Energy Efficiency. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12053-015-9323-9

## P-3305-14

### A design matrix for energy sustainability of buildings with double skin envelopes in warming climates in the tropics

U. Rajapaksha (1); H. Rupasinghe (1); I. Rajapaksha. (1) (1) University of Moratuwa, Architecture, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

Adapting buildings to extreme temperatures due to climate change, demands a collaborative effort to deal with climate, occupants and buildings. A current technology to assist with this approach is called "bio-climatic design approach". It is seen as an appropriate basis for climate responsive design which involves the way buildings filter the climate for occupants' comforts. This approach has gained recognition for the application in medium scale buildings in moderate climates. However, this is less researched and problematic due to indoor overheating potential in warm humid climates. Thus needs to be investigated in the effort of adapting buildings to warming climates.

The project will contribute to establish that building design can play a key role in combating extreme temperatures involving a shift towards new bio-climatic design solutions focusing on passive climate control with form and fabric of buildings. The method used in this research reviews trends in predicted climatic behaviors in tropics, and evaluates critical practice exemplars found in local climatic zones in Sri Lanka. The project presents a generalized matrix of evidence-based interventions from associations that publicize case studies and literature exploring the potential for adapting buildings to predicted extreme climates. Use of onsite investigations, and advanced computer-based Design-Builder simulations for assessing and predicting adaptive capabilities of buildings will become essential components of the method.

Innovative potential of envelope dependency, which optimizes the building-climate interplay for reducing the need for energy in building operation, is highlighted with the matrix. This is more complex and critical when envelope dependency is not fully resolved in buildings located in the tropics where environmental loads external to the buildings contribute more significantly to the thermal load profiles of buildings. Unresolved envelope dependency contributes to indoor overheating in many ways. The paper takes this challenge by developing a cross-dimensional performance approach of buildings focusing on the dependency of the microclimate, plan form, sectional form and envelope.

An integrated characterization of energy sustainability of buildings is proposed based on the matrix, which is a conceptualization of built environment as a building-climate-occupancy system. The matrix aims at strengthening envelope dependency of a building considering it as a bio-climatic entity contributing to
sustainability and low emission building practices. One holistic performance indicator is used for evaluating such contribution, so expressing the climate modification - the reduction from ambient to internal air temperature. Discussion on the efficacy of the matrix shows that it works as an empirical tool supporting to gaining an insight in resolving any dualities associated with performance within the envelope dependency.

The research found that most certified green buildings in the country are either of core dependent or envelope dependent but highly energy intensive. Methodology involved few field investigations of selected certified green buildings using data loggers that collected air temperature, radiation, wind flow and envelope surface temperatures and the use of a computer based Design-Builder simulation program. Empirical findings showed the criticality of the problem and unresolved duality associated with envelope dependent forms - heat gain vs passive influence. The buildings are found to be highly energy intensive with an Energy Utility Index around 196-260 KWh/m²/a although they are certified either as Gold or Platinum. Research further showed indoor-overheating situations when buildings were allowed to run free without air conditioning.

The simulation program used to redefine the energy sustainability of the most critical case building introducing resolved envelope dependency involving a high thermal mass double skin external envelope and a vertical atrium for thermal buoyancy effect. Calibrated simulation results provide evidence of passive cooling with internal air temperatures in all multi levels of the building moving 2-3.5 degrees C below the ambient levels due to improved and resolved envelope dependency with heat removal, removal of force and night ventilation. Findings showed a reduction of EUI up to 98 KWh/m²/a suggesting that the matrix can play a positive role in innovating envelope dependency for emission reduction.

## P-3305-15

# The importance of the sun as clean source of energy in the design of cold storage for health care facilities in Africa

### MRD. Seke (1)

(1) University of South Africa, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Gauteng, South Africa

Sun is the main source of energy to several planets, especially to the Earth and its inhabitants. It lights the surface of the Earth free of charge, and its energy is clean.

However, we do not fully benefit from the sun's energy which is precious to the humanity and can be used as the best source of electricity. The solar energy that the Earth's atmosphere, seas, forests and soils benefit is more than billions of Joules per year.

Africa is a place of hope and has a better position in term of climate change but its population, in majority, is poor and exposed to variable viruses, diseases and threats which are still killing due to lack of access to cure and drugs of quality.

In laboratories where medicines are manufactured and in hospitals where human bloods are collected and stored to both improve and better the conditions of patients, we need their good preservation either in transit or in storage.

In rural and urban areas, solar powered cold room units would be of wide benefit to the healthcare facilities.

This study is based on theoretical analysis and calculations of Solar Powered Cold storage for healthcare facilities in Africa, as well as some comparisons made between different sources of energy to keep thermolabile medicines and blood bags in good conditions according to the pharmaceutical guides and health standards.

As the future of the Earth depends on its ecosystem, the gravity of the solar energy is the precious fuel which led our design project.

The methodology used in the present study employs both qualitative and quantitative research techniques.

## P-3305-16

# Strategic policy packages to deliver energy efficiency in buildings - theoretical analysis and international evidence

S. Thomas (1) ; V. Aydin, (2) ; D. Kiyar, (2) ; L. Tholen, (2) ; M. Venjakob, (2)

(1) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, RG Energy, Transport and Climate Policy, Wuppertal, Germany; (2) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

Energy efficiency in buildings and appliances has the potential to halve the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from that sector by 2050, despite growth in building and appliance stock. However, this potential will not become reality without policy support, due to complex market chains with many types of actors, and a plethora of barriers they face. What are, then, effective packages of policies and measures to stimulate energy efficiency in new existing buildings, and appliances? In recent research, we have addressed the question in a systematic way - by combining theoretical evidence on what policy support markets need, and an international comparison on which packages of policies have worked well.

On the theoretical side, the analysis starts with the barriers but also market-inherent incentives that the different types of market participants face. This enables to derive a recommended package combining the types of regulatory economic and other policies and measures the actors need to overcome all these barriers and strengthen incentives. On the empirical side, evidence on model examples of good practice for policy packages has been collected and their design and impact compared, to check if advanced countries have indeed used the combination of policies we derived from the actor-centred analysis. Finally, the model examples, lessons learned, and the preconditions for their transferability are used to validate the generic policy package identified in the theoretical analysis.

In this way, we found that the recommendable policy package for new buildings is similar to the well-known one for appliances, but with the objective to mainstream nearly zero energy buildings. By contrast, the task for existing buildings is two-dimensionless: increasing the depth of renovation first, to savings of 50 to 80%, and then the rate of energy-efficient renovation to 2% or more p.a. - and so the policy package needs more emphasis on individual advice, incentives, and financing. The paper will present the recommended packages as well as a comparison of existing national policy packages from Denmark, Germany, Singapore, Tunisia and California (USA) and what we learned from it for effective packages and implementation.

## P-3305-17

# Solutions for the improvement of energy efficiency in historic buildings and districts preserving their heritage value

A. Vivarelli (1) ; A. Bernardi (1) ; F. Becherini (1) ; MC. Di Tuccio (1) ; L. Pockelé (2) ; T. Broström (3) ; E. Schoenberger (4)

(1) National Research Council, Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate, Padova, Italy; (2) R.E.D. srl, Padova, Italy; (3) Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden; (4) Fraunhofer Institute, Building physics ibp, Holzkirchen, Germany

Buildings have a significant impact on energy use and environment. Growth in population, increasing demand for building services and comfort levels, together with time spent inside buildings, assure that the upward trend in energy demand and CO₂ emission will continue in the future. This situation is strongly related to the emissions from existing buildings, as 50 million buildings throughout Europe are 50 years old or more. Europe can become the leader in CO₂ emission reduction by applying innovative energy efficient solutions to its built historic and cultural heritage. However, most of the current developments in energy efficiency typically address new constructions and individual buildings without considering on one hand the unique problems of historic structures and on the other hand the urban dimension.

These issues are faced within the research project EFFESUS (Energy Efficiency for EU Historic Districts' Sustainability), funded by the European Union 7FP (Grant Agreement no.
314678). Its main objectives are: i) the study of measures and tools to improve the energy efficiency of historic buildings and districts whilst protecting and preserving their cultural and historical values; ii) the development of new technologies as well as a software tool to support decisions on improvement measures. In particular a methodology is being developed for assessing the impact of implementation and selecting the most proper energy efficiency interventions in historical buildings and districts whilst ensuring the compatibility with their heritage values. This methodology is based on indicators, i.e. qualitative and/or quantitative information associated to the retrofit process under observation, which allows to verify the accomplishment of the goal or the related impact. These indicators are evaluated on a five point scale both for the initial conditions of the existing stock and for the conditions after the implementation of the interventions. The main output will be a Decision Support System (DSS), where the p2p score contribution of issues are prioritized in function of their potential impact, with the aim to assist stakeholders in decision-making. The DSS will be based on real data including also climatic change predictions.

The applicability of the technological developments, as well as the suitability of the DSS are being demonstrated in five case studies. In particular the following innovations are being tested: new thermal insulating mortars for use as plaster and render in Benediktbeuern (Germany); radiation selective coatings for outdoors in Istanbul (Turkey); blown-in aerogel for use in cavities behind existing wall finishes in Glasgow (United Kingdom); windows with improved insulation and ventilation, as well as intelligent indoor climate solutions through energy management algorithms in Budapest (Hungary); implementation of new control strategies to decrease the primary energy demand in historic buildings and districts in Santiago de Compostela (Spain).

The preliminary results of the performance assessment of the new technologies developed in EFFESUS will be presented mainly in function of the indoor environmental conditions and operational energy indicators on the basis of the monitoring activities carried out in the above mentioned five case studies. These activities have been launched in function of the readiness of the developed technologies and are now running for several months. The parameters, defined in function of the technology to be validated, are currently being measured simultaneously in a test area and in an equivalent reference area for reasons of comparison. The only exception is in Benediktbeuern where the comparison is performed before and after the application of the thermal insulating mortar. In particular the thermo-thermometric conditions (temperatures, relative humidity, and air flow) and the energy related parameters (heat flows, energy consumption, associated cost of the energy, etc.) are being studied. These data are being used to assess the performance of the innovative solutions in terms of: indoor comfort expressed as PMV and PPD values (EN 15251), air quality (CO2 levels, ventilation rate), percentage of reduction of primary energy demand, reduction in energy consumption per m², emissions m²·core contribution of RGS to the districts and buildings energy demand for heating/cooling, district heating contribution to the buildings/district energy demand.

P-3305-18

Fixing or transferring environmental problems in the transport sector?

HJ. Walnum (1)

(1) Western Norway Research Institute, Environmental group, Sogndal, Norway

Worldwide, the transport sector produced 7.0 GtCO2eq of direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which corresponds to approximately 23% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. Regionally, such as in the EU, the transport sector was responsible for 25% of the energy-related GHG emissions. Although the recently adopted EU target is to reduce GHG emissions levels by 80%-95% from 1990 levels by 2050, the European Commission stated that the goal for the transport sector is 60% because of its complexity. From 1970 to 2010, the direct energy use associated with transport has grown by 250% worldwide—a growth rate that is higher than any other sector.

Based on the above it is evident that the current transport systems are not sustainable. Without a substantial change in governmental policy, this trend will continue. The

scope of the thesis is to examine how rich countries, such as the U.S as well as in countries and regions in the EU and the (OECD), can achieve sustainable mobility, taking into account the problems related to various transfer effects. A reason that sustainable mobility has not been achieved could be that transfer effects have not been fully understood by policy makers nor in the sustainable mobility discourse (Holden, 2012). For example, increased technological efficiency and innovation are frequently discussed as strategies to mitigate climatic gas emissions and energy use in the transport sector. However, the idea of a technological and policy quick-fix is highly problematic because often a proposed solution by policy, innovation or technology only transfers the environmental problem to other life cycle stages, to other emissions categories, to other countries, or to increased demands across levels from the micro to the macro level and this situation is a paradox that needs to be addressed in future planning.

This abstract examines three «transfer effects»: 1. Rebound effects, 2. Environmental trade-off effects and 3. Geographical transfer effects. The following research questions are addressed in the covering essay:

* Are transfer effects the reason of why energy use and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector keep raising?

* What are the similarities and differences between the transfer effects?

* Why have such effects been overlooked in policy making?

* What could be done to mitigate them?

Studying rebound effects addresses how efficiency measures taken at the micro level do not necessarily lead to society-wide reduction. Despite improvements in intensity of grams of CO2 per kilometer for passenger cars in the EU and US, energy reduction has been outweighed by increased total kilometers travelled and sales of larger vehicles (Holden, 2012). This might be explained by rebound effects concerned with systemic and behavioral responses. For example, the cost savings from buying a fuel efficient car could be used to drive farther (a direct rebound effect) or to purchase other energy consuming activities. To fully understand rebound effects, I argue that it is necessary to take an interdisciplinary approach.

Life-cycle and energy-chain analyses, which could be considered studies of indirect rebound effects, look at products from cradle-to-grave. Both compare products at the micro and the macro level. They are based on the so-called Kyoto protocol or national demarcation of accounting for GHG emissions. This implies that some of the fastest growing areas are overlooked in available GHG-emissions statistics, which are based on national territories.

P-3305-19

Reducing Methane Emissions Using a Fixed Bed Reactor Under Dynamic Condition

E. Wardhono (1) ; M. Effyden (2)

(1) University of Sultan Agung Tirtayasa, Chemical Engineering, Cilegon, Banten, Indonesia; (2) Surabaya state university, Mechanical engineering, Surabaya, Indonesia

The production oil and gas is the largest human-made source of methane emissions in Indonesia and the fourth largest human-made source of methane emissions globally. Methane is referred to as a potent greenhouse gas because it has a Global Warming Potential, GWP of 21. This means that methane is 21 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period. Methane emissions primarily result from normal operations, routine maintenance, leaks and system upsets from connections between pipes and vessels or to valves and equipment. Reducing these emissions can have significant environmental and economic benefits.

The catalytic treatment is one of the most reliable alternatives to reduce of methane emissions. However, due to the concentration of emitted methane is low,
the flow rate changes over time and the temperature is ambient. The conventional treatment using once-through direction of fixed bed reactor operating under steady state conditions is less appropriate. For the methane content of 0.5%-v., the adiabatic temperature rise is approximately 1150C. As a result, extra external energy is required to increase the temperature of the feed gas. Reverse flow reactor was applied to overcome this problem. To increase of methane conversion may be induced by changes of the reaction rate over Pt/g-Al2O3 catalyst surface due to dynamic system operated at proper time scale. Therefore, there are two important aspects to be considered: (1) reactor design and (2) operation method. The aim of this study was to develop a new method in order to determine the reaction mechanism and rate-controlling step that occur in one dynamic cycle. The model reaction used was methane oxidation using 0.3%-wt Pt/y-Al2O3 operated under dynamic conditions. At which the pattern of the reverse flow reactor was approached using a once-through direction of fixed bed reactor with composition modulation. It was based on the similarity of the reactor's response measured at the outlet, which is usually used for sampling.

The method used in this study was a steady state approach consisting of 4 stages; (1) the first stage was to determine the homogeneity of the continuum model of a fixed bed reactor that will be used to validate the model reaction mechanism and the rate-controlling step in dynamic conditions. (2) The second was determination of the model reaction mechanisms and rate-controlling step of the steady state condition. (3) The third was to identify the influence of the perturbation on response of the reactor in term of conversion in the dynamic condition. Furthermore, the validation of the model reaction mechanism obtained at steady state on otherwise steady state conversion obtained in the dynamic operation was performed. (4) The fourth one was to establish the model reaction mechanisms and rate-controlling step that occurs in the dynamic conditions. This identification was accomplished by taking some perturbation points in term of CH4/O2 feed gas concentration ratio involved in the dynamic range to be performed the steady state experiment. The result of this identification was subsequently conducted the segmentation in order to obtain the mechanism change plots and rate-controlling step in one cycle period. Furthermore, the validation of the model reaction mechanism and dynamic kinetic parameters with dynamic experimental data were indispensable.

The influence of the perturbation on response inducing the dynamic conditions in the reactor can be expressed by the ratio of the CH4/O2 with methane conversion obtained. The use of the model reaction rate of Langmuir-Hinshelwood on pseudo-homogeneous model of mass for 1-D could not fully describe the characteristics of methane conversion obtained through experiments in the dynamic conditions.

## 3306 - Transitioning from fossil fuels and avoiding lock-ins

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-3306-01

##### The role of fossil energy in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

###### D. Mcollum (1)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy Program, Laxenburg, Austria

The transition between today's fossil-dominated energy system and one based on low-carbon supply sources will be a decades-long process. Getting from here to there will present a number of challenges, not least of which are phasing out of the ubiquitous fossil fuel infrastructure that has been built up over the past century and a half and providing the necessary incentives for foregoing the ample deposits of fossil energy lodged within the Earth's crust. In this regard, future advancements in fossil technologies, fossil resource endowments and the long-term development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system.

This talk will summarize recent literature emanating

from the global integrated assessment modeling (IAM) community which has explored the role of fossil energy (coal, oil, and natural gas) in its various energy and emissions scenarios for the twenty-first century (both in low-carbon pathways and in fossil-dominant counterfactuals). The study to be discussed principally include those from multi-model inter-comparison projects, such as EMF27 (Energy Modeling Forum), AMPERE (Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates), LIMITS (Low climate Impacts scenarios and the Implications of required Tight emission control Strategies), and RoSE (Roadmaps towards Sustainable Energy futures), among others.

The diverse modeling frameworks employed in these studies highlight large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. A seemingly robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the upper end of cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. And while a vast amount of unconventional gas resources have recently become cost-competitive and could alter the future energy landscape,

##### Mapping and Modelling multiple benefits of energy efficiency and emission mitigation in China's cement industry at the provinces level

###### S. Zhang (1); E. Worrell, (1); W. Crijns-Graus (1)

(1) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands

China's cement industry is the second largest energy consumer and key emitter of CO2 and air pollutants. It accounts for 7% of total energy consumption in China and 15% of CO2, 21% of PM, 4% SO2 and 10% of NOx of total emissions, respectively. Provincial disparities in energy consumption and emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China's cement industry are rarely quantified. In this study, an integrated assessment model including provincial energy conservation supply curves (ECSC) (which can shows the cost-effective and technical energy saving potential per province), the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (which can be used to calculate air pollutant emissions), and ArcGIS (a geographical information system GIS) with elaborated spatial functions) is developed and used to assess the potential of energy savings in terms of emission mitigation of CO2 and air pollutants and multiple benefits of energy efficiency measures at the provincial level during the period 2011-2030. The results show significant heterogeneity across provinces in terms of potential of energy saving as well as emission mitigation of CO2 and air pollutants (i.e. PM, SO2, and NOx) in the next two decades. Seven provinces (i.e. Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei), six of which are located in the central- and east- China, account for 47% of the total energy saving potential, equivalent to 26% of baseline energy use in 2030. The energy efficiency measures can help decrease 38% of CO2, 23% of SO2, 33% of NOx, and 26% of PM emissions in these seven provinces by 2030. This indicates that the multiple benefits should be considered when local policy makers or end users make decisions whether to use energy efficiency measures to solve environmental issues.

#### P-3305-20