of culture for global sustainable development. Europe's Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) - the skills, music, dance, drama, gastronomy, festivals, crafts, etc which have been passed from one generation to the next - is a hugely important resource that has an impact on sustainable environment in two ways. ICH is a 'product' for the cultural and creative industrial sectors (arts markets, design and crafts), and also as a 'process' for the economy and society as an inspiration for creativity and innovation (for instance, in education, science, tourism and social cohesion). Education plays a key role in safeguarding ICH as it enables its transmission, awareness raising and capacity building to a widest community. The connection between ICH, education and sustainable development is acknowledged by international organisations, academics and political bodies alike. In order to implement the concept of sustainable development effectively, it has to be linked with policies and measures. To this end, the Day Connected for Lifelong Learning (KCL) in the European Reference Framework can serve as a common foundation for the development of ICH and education and ultimately to sustainable development. These competences cover all forms of behaviour that equip individuals to participate in an effective and constructive way in social and working life, and particularly in increasingly diverse societies, and to resolve conflict where necessary. This paper explores how KCL contributes to activate a sustainable regional development. This paper is part of 'ICH-Bildung' Europe research project on intangible cultural heritage and education funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions - Research Fellowship Programme.

P-1123-16

## Integration of climate change education into school: A case study in Da Nang City, Viet Nam

T. Thi My Thi (1); P. Chau (2)

(1) Ha Noi University of Natural Resource and Environment, Department of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Ha Noi, Vietnam; (2) Department of Education and Training, Da Nang, Vietnam

Extended damages caused by climate change are being reported daily all over the world, especially in developing countries like Viet Nam, where many people live in poverty, lack infrastructure, and are dependent on technologies. The level of damages is highly dependent on the capacity of communities and individuals to respond to climate change. Thus raising people awareness on climate risks, providing them with knowledge on local adaptation, and building their capacity to be resilient are the ultimate goals of climate change education (CCE). In order to find out appropriate approaches to promote climate change education in the specific context of Vietnamese education system, this research concentrates on two key important aspects including educational governance and educational activities. Educational governance includes activities related to educational management, policies, guidance, processes and decision-making on the application of climate change adaptation. Educational activities mentions to all teaching and learning activities in school, which target school students. The objective of the study is to maximize effectiveness of educational governance and education activities in a way that help to facilitate and sustain climate change education in Viet Nam.

In the scope of this study, a case from Da Nang City will be presented. Da Nang is a coastal city of Viet Nam, which located in the central region. The city is considered as the largest education center of Central Vietnam and the third largest in the country. It is in top five provinces have the highest literacy rate and net enrolment rates at primary level. However, being a coastal city with three quarters of territory made up of hills and mountains, Da Nang is prone to frequent typhoons and heavy rainfall causing widespread flooding. In the last 10 years (2000 to 2010) there have been 21 typhoons directly hitting Da Nang with an average of two typhoons annually. In 2009, Typhoon Ketsana (Figure 4.1.7) directly hit south of Da Nang and left eight people dead, ninety-six injured, and damages costing 495 billion VND (about 25 million USD). In October 2013, Da Nang City was strongly hit by the typhoons Nari, which made landfall in Danang and Quang Nam areas with a Category 1 level on 15 Oct. It is reported that there was 11 injuries, 122 houses collapsed, 5449 house damaged/unroofed, 13 public buildings damaged. Aside from floods and typhoons, Da Nang was also impacted

by droughts, river-bank and coastal erosion, and saline intrusion. Under the impacts of increased temperature and change of precipitation, droughts in Da Nang have become prolonged with more severe intensity.

Within this context, the Da Nang Department of Education and Training (DoET) has focused on preparing schools to reduce the impacts of climate change through introduction of the city has taken many steps forward such as developing plans for CCE carrying out teacher training, strengthening the physical conditions of the majority of its schools located in vulnerable areas. However, at school level, the School Management Board appears to have taken very few steps towards reducing losses from disasters and ensuring the safety of their students. The performance of CCE in schools, in particular at primary level, remains inadequate. The capacity to respond to the impact of disasters of school children and teachers is low, particularly the activities to return to normal teaching program after the disasters. This results in educational interruption and affecting educational quality.

By giving the overall pictures of existing conditions of CCE in Da Nang, it provides important insights to enhance the implementation of CCE into school through integrated approach. The result from the study shows that a coalescence of three approaches including textbook driven approach, symbiosis approach, and community-oriented approach will help to advance the level of CCE in Da Nang. The framework on how to consolidate these approaches in the application of CCE in school will be proposed.

P-1123-17

## The potential for the implementation of an effective mechanism for improving local communities knowledge of adaptation to climate change

A. Vakhitov (1)

(1) Ecoforum of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Climate variability is one of the many stresses faced by local communities. While it is not always the most important stressor or risk affecting a community, it should nevertheless be considered when designing and implementing a local-level project, particularly in communities characterized by climate-sensitive and/or natural resource-dependent lives. The onset of longer-term climate change, which will compound existing stresses associated with climate variability, provides an added incentive for addressing climate risk in our research. Mountain territories not only are some kind of «barometre» of global climate changes, but their reaction have a significant impact on the further strengthening of these processes. People are faced with the need to find ways to adapt to the negative impacts of this phenomenon. Vulnerable populations will be different categories, depending on the projected effects: from scarcity of water resources will suffer all, but especially the affected populations, their livelihoods and earnings are directly dependent on the availability of water, such as farmers and rural residents; changes in temperature will affect the mode energy demand in winter for people who depend on uninterrupted power supply; negative climate change will impact on the country's biodiversity, and thus on the people for whom it is important to the existence of biological resources. In Central Asia, glaciers ensures the drinking water of mountain valleys and piedmont plains areas. Because of the reduction of ice resources now for the territory of Central Asia is characterized by severe water stress, and projected changes in climate here could cause a further reduction of water resources and reducing water consumption. In the period from 1955 to 2000 the surface area of glaciers has decreased from 70 thousand to 45 thousand km². On the other hand, the human impact on environment is not always beneficial - poaching, felling of trees, no rational grazing, no rational use of natural resources. In this context, issues of adaptation of the population of mountains and others marginal areas to the impacts of climate change, development of policies and measures to prevent the adverse effects of climate change in the future are actual. But. In developing economics the State has not enough finances for environment and health protection. Meanwhile, the situation has not become better from year to year. What to do? Who or what can help? We assumed that the best option in this case - the mobilization capacity at the community level. That is as an outlet could be mobilization of efforts of
local communities for protection of local ecosystems and its own health and budget. Why is this not being done or done insufficiently now? The reason, above all, in the absence of the local population aware that they can and should try to solve these problems themselves and to be able to raise these issues with the authorities. Mechanism for the implementation of this approach is to obtain the necessary information, the acquisition of relevant skills and knowledge. We offer that problems with training youth and adults can be solved not only at the state level, but also the help of local initiatives – at a local level, that under present conditions for developing countries more effectively. And, probably, it is necessary to begin from below – from family. Central research objectives – Identification of the potential for the implementation of an effective mechanism for improving local communities knowledge for adaptation to climate change. As a methodological tools used a public opinion poll, case study, a priori

and statistical data, methods of observation; as one of the impact tools used brochure "Environmental safety of family and environment conservation". The case study include questions: 1. Identification of parameters (factors), climate change (oligohydramnios, drought, mudslides, avalanches, floods, land degradation, etc.) That affect the social aspects (function) – income, health, etc.; 2. Analysis of existing methods of mountain population adapting to climate change. 3. Identifying the needs of the knowledge and methods of influence. The next step of our research was to determine the feasibility of learning communities on an ongoing basis taking into account regional specificities. We analyzed a number of possibilities and we have offered cost-effective and accessible mechanism for improving local communities knowledge for adaptation to climate change. This experience can be disseminated and used in developing countries.
# 2201 - Between the cracks of future climate projections: exploring weather events and climate scenarios with no precedence

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2201-01

#### Tales of Future Weather

##### W. Hazeleger (1)

(1) Netherlands eScience Center/KNMI/WU, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and extrapolation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Predictability beyond 'weather' time scales is limited and physical consistency is often lost when downscaling. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This makes it of future weather' approach will find in the interpretation lower-resolution simulations such as produced in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP). At this presentation a number of real-world cases will be presented where vulnerability to meteorological conditions is exposed. These are typically high-impact, not necessarily extreme, weather events. For instance compounded events of storm surges and extreme rainfall in the midlatitudes and of heat and drought in the subtropics. We will show how narratives of those analogues can describe the events in an alternative climatic setting to aid decision-makers. Producing the narratives is a transdisciplinary process where scientists and decision makers co-develop the information needed. Arguably, 'Tales' potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

### K-2201-02

#### No-analogue Climate Futures in the Tro-pics

##### R. Corlett (1)

(1) Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Center for integrative conservation, Menglun, Mengla, Yunnan, China

Climatic extremes in the tropics—cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves—currently kill tens of thousands of people a year, and damage or destroy the livelihoods of many others. Wild species are presumably adapted to these extremes and, although individuals are killed, their populations usually persist, except when natural weather extremes interact with land-use change and other human impacts to change fire regimes and exacerbate floods and droughts. Climate models predict a further 1–20°C warming by 2050 and 1–40°C by 2100 for the tropics, but trends in rainfall and other variables vary between models for most regions. In much of the lowland tropics, this warming will create climates for which there is no existing analogue anywhere on Earth. Moreover, the low variability of tropical temperatures means that a rise in mean temperature of 2–3°C will bring routine maxima as high as today's extremes and new extremes that are higher than any that occur today. Although less certain, there are also good reasons for expecting increases in other climate extremes, including floods, droughts, and high-intensity cyclones. Predicting the responses of both human and natural systems to novel climate extremes is inherently difficult. Human societies have a considerable capacity to adjust to change, but experience a climate change is likely to be greatest and adaptive capacity

least among the poorest and most marginalized people. Predictions for natural systems depend on models, but we currently lack the data needed to assess their reliability when extrapolated beyond current conditions. There is an urgent need for both better models, built on a mechanistic understanding of the processes involved, and large-scale experiments.

### O-2201-01

#### Future projection of precipitation associa-ted with Cutoff Lows over South Africa in a Coupled Global Climate Model

##### A. Favre (1); C. Lennard (2); B. Hewitson (3); Y. Richard (1)

(1) Université de Bourgogne, Centre de recherches de climatologie, umr 6282 biogéosciences cnrs, Dijon, France;
(2) University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa; (3) University of Cape Town, Environmental and Geographical Science, Rondebosch, South Africa

In South Africa. Cut-off Lows (CoLs) are known to be responsible for tempestuous weather and some remarkable precipitation events. This work presents how precipitation associated with CoLs may evolve in the region of South Africa in a context of global warming. Using the historical (1976-2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5, 2006-2100) simulations of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques coupled global climate model (CNRM-CM5), the trajectories of 500-hPa CoLs have been constructed following the methodology presented in Favre et al 2013. During the historical period, we find that the geographical and seasonal distributions of CoLs' frequency over South Africa and surrounding oceans are well simulated by the CNRM-CM5. In addition, the main observed features of precipitation associated with CoLs are correctly reproduced by the model. According to the RCP8.5 simulation, drier conditions are projected over South Africa by the end of the 21st century and the CNRM-CM5 also presents a general decrease in annual precipitation, except over the plateau in the Northern Cape province. Precipitation associated with CoLs is projected to decrease excepted over the Northern Cape where heavy and extreme precipitation days (RR > historical 75th percentile and RR > historical 95th percentile, respectively) attributed to CoLs may be more frequent. These changes are associated with a slight reduction of CoL annual frequency of and with a slight equatorward shift of their domain of occurrence in the studied region. Over the 21st century, these changes are expected to develop in parallel with decadal variability and with an increase in the inter-annual variability of CoL's frequency.

### O-2201-02

#### Polar Lows and Medicans: Understand-ing how intense mesocyclones and their impacts might respond to climate change

##### S. Len (1)

(1) NCAS-Climate, Department of meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom

Polar Lows and Medicans are very intense, small cyclones that occur in the Norwegian and the Mediterranean Seas. Although small in size, Polar Lows and Medicans can generate damaging winds that have substantial impacts on shipping, coastal communities and infrastructure. Polar Lows and Medicans have very symmetric structures, often having a central eye-wall that has led to them being referred to as Arctic Hurricanes and Mediterranean Hurricanes. Polar Lows and Medicans are too small to represent in typical climate models. This means that there are very large uncertainties in how Polar Lows and Medicans will respond to climate change, despite their large socioeconomic impacts.

This talk will discuss progress in simulating Polar Lows
and Medicines in global climate simulations performed at very high resolutions. The results of historical and climate change simulations with a 25km resolution version of the HadGEM3 climate model will be presented. The HadGEM3 simulations suggest that the frequency of both Polar Lows and Medicines will decrease under climate change, primarily due to increases in the stability of the atmosphere over the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. However, there are some indications that when they do occur, Polar Lows and Medicines may become more intense in a warmer climate. The potential for improving climate model projections of Polar Lows and Medicines will also be discussed.

## O-2201-03

### Forecasting heavy precipitation producing cyclones in the island of Crete

I. Tsanis (1)

(1) McMaster University, Civil Engineering, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change will produce intense meteorological events, causing higher precipitation in shorter time periods. The island of Crete is located in the Eastern Mediterranean and is prone to high precipitation events which cause an increased risk of flash flooding. The objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of the hydrometeorological processes that produce heavy precipitation in the island of Crete and result in flash flooding. Effective forecasting for these natural disasters will increase public safety by reducing fatalities and changing the policy for a better flash flood risk management plan. For this purpose, images and datasets of the following parameters were used for the Eastern Mediterranean: (a) MeteoSat Meteorological Images (Infra-Red IR-10.8, 3h); (b) Mean Sea Level Pressure ERA Interim (6h); (c) Wind at 500 hPa from ERA Interim (6h); (d) Vorticity at 500 hPa from ERA Interim (6h); (e) Lightning (USLN Lightning Network - 3h) and (f) hourly precipitation from Crete Meteorological Stations Network (3h). At presenting the data from the 15th of November 2012 storm event has been analyzed. In this event, one of the precipitation stations located in the northwest part of the island of Crete, recorded more than 100mm of rain on 16/11/2012, and about 45mm of rain in the following day. More specifically, on 16/11/2016, 56.6mm of rain fell within one hour (14:00-15:00 UTC), and 27mm of rain on 17/11/2012 between 14:00-15:00 UTC. This severe rain event was caused by a cyclonic system approaching Crete from the Aegean, entering the Mediterranean on 15/11/2012, and moving to the east, with its center being located south of Crete. The spatio-temporal distribution of the relative vorticity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure, lightning and the time of precipitation are used to shorten the forecasting time of a heavy precipitation event, in a probabilistic sense. More cases will be analyzed and presented in the conference, in order to validate the forecasting precipitation results in terms of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy.

## O-2201-04

### Expansion of the tropics: evidence and implications

S. Turton (1)

(1) James Cook University, College of Marine & Environmental Sciences, Cairns, Australia

There is accumulating evidence that the tropical zone is expanding poleward in both hemispheres. The implications of a poleward tropical expansion are significant; subtropical arid, conditions may be seen in regions at higher latitudes which have historically enjoyed a more temperate climate, with implications for management of water resources and agricultural systems. However, some regions which currently border the equatorial zone may experience an increase in extreme rainfall, which could result in flooding, the displacement of communities and increased incidence of disease. The poleward expansion of the Tropics appears to be linked to a concomitant expansion in the tracks of tropical cyclones, potentially bringing cyclical activity to regions which have previously not experienced such weather events. Changes to the tracks and activity of cyclones, and other extreme weather events, will impact on human health, biodiversity and the economy. The burden of vector-borne diseases on health and the economy of the Tropics may also increase

as more regions become climatically suitable for insect vectors. The Tropics are the most biodiverse region on earth, with more endemic species and more biodiversity 'hotspots' than anywhere else. However research suggests that although many species are tracking climate changes, species in the Tropics may be lagging behind the rate of tropical expansion - meaning some species may not be able to sufficiently track their preferred environment and climate and may potentially risk extinction. This paper explores the implications of expansion of the tropics for societies and environments in the tropics, who are likely to experience futures with no precedence.

## 2201-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2201-01

#### Assessment of Southwest Asia Surface Temperature Changes: CMIP5 20th and 21st Century Simulations

Z. Babar (1); XF. Zhi (2); G. Fei (2)

(1) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, College of International students, Nanjing, China; (2) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Surface temperature variability in southwest Asia from CMIP5 20th century simulations and projected changes under three emission scenarios for the 21st century are assessed on the basis of a multimodel ensemble mean of seventeen CMIP5 runs and two observational datasets. Performance of individual models is also computed. Compared with observations CMIP5 models show seasonality in biases over southwest Asia. Cold biases over Himalayan range are significant in winter than in summer. Climatic warming during the 20th century is very well captured by the CMIP5 models. There is a limited agreement among the observations and CMIP5 models ensemble mean regarding the temperature trends and their spatial distribution over southwest Asia. Surface temperature variability over southwest Asia is best represented by three individual models (i.e. BCC, HadGEM and NorESM). Temperature projections for the 21st century demonstrate that annual temperature rise for RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios is 0.55 C (10 year)-1 and 0.27C (10 year)-1. RCP 2.6 scenario has the lowest warming rate at 0.11 C (10 year)-1. By the end of the 21st century annual mean temperature in southwest Asia is estimated to increase by 0.80 C to 4.85 C. Most of this warming is projected to take place around Pakistan and its surrounding areas.

### P-2201-02

#### Investigation of uncertainty in the IPCC AR5 precipitation and temperature projections over Iran under RPC scenarios

N. Ghahreman (1); M. Tabatabaei (2); I. Babaeian (3)

(1) University of Tehran, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) University of Tehran, Irrigation and reclamation engineering dep., Alborz, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; (3) Climatological Research Institute, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran

Upon release of new scenarios based on Radiative Forcing which are known as Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP scenarios), by Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) in the 5th Assessment Report (AR5), a new set of 42 global climate models (GCMs) have been proposed for future climate projections. By increasing number of available models for running and application to 42 which have been mentioned in AR5, three main sources of uncertainty including: measurement error, variability, and model structure, have been explained and studied. The main aim of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of outputs of 37 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP) for precipitation and temperature data in Iran. Required data consist of two main groups: Simulated historical data and Observations. The observed data of rainfall and temperature were retrieved from three sources. Two databases namely: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project, and selected synoptic stations over Iran. Comparisons were made between the data reported in the climatic databases and those observed in synoptic stations using Root Mean
Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) indices. The Monte Carlo simulation approach was used for uncertainty analysis of the simulated values of monthly precipitation and temperature and study stations observations. The results showed that there exists a close agreement between NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project data and observed ones, hence it was chosen as an alternate to observations for choosing the best models among the 37 selected GCMs. The latter section of study revealed that among the selected models, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M have the best performance in generating the rainfall and temperature data for baseline period of 1960-2000. Further studies using different sets of GCMs is recommended for more scrutiny.

P-2201-03

## The timing of summer climate departure in cities and its lethal impact

C. Mora (1) ; B. Dousset (2) ; C. Trauernicht (3) ; I. Caldwell (4) ; Q. Chen (1) ; C. Dau (1) ; B. Dietrich (5) ; R. Fang (1) ; R. Geronimo (1) ; E. Johnston (6) ; L. Li (7) ; M. Lucas (3) ; M. Mionz (1) ; F. Pichon (1)

(1) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of geography, Honolulu, United States of America; (2) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Hawaii institute of geophysics and planetology, Honolulu, United States of America; (3) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of natural resources and environmental management, Honolulu, United States of America; (4) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Hawaii institute of marine biology, Honolulu, United States of America; (5) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of plant and environmental protection sciences, Honolulu, United States of America; (6) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of botany, Honolulu, United States of America; (7) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of atmospheric sciences, Honolulu, United States of America

Climate models for the 21st century predict a year-to-year variability in summer temperatures that lead to a significant increase in the occurrence, intensity, and duration of heat waves. These are especially deadly in urban areas that account for half the world population and are characterized by heat island effects, production of anthropogenic heat, and aging inhabitants. We investigated the projected times after which mean summer climate in large cities will shift beyond historical values, generating environmental conditions that will endanger

human health. Data on urban extreme heat events and their related mortality during 1980-2010 were collected from an extensive literature review and relevant websites. When mapped, these data are predominantly distributed in the mid-latitudes, indicating either a more intense warming or/and a lack of available data in tropical regions. Climate variables and time of occurrence were extracted from actual data to identify the set of conditions that exceed human tolerance to extreme heat events. These thresholds were then combined with Earth System Models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) to estimate the timing of lethal climates. Results indicate a strong association between climate anomalies and lethal weather events in the past and suggest that such events will occur periodically in all the largest cities of the world. Although it is possible that human adaptation and resilience to heat stress could reduce mortality, it is clear that ongoing climate change will pose a threat to human survival over vast areas of the world. The foreseeable urban summer climate departures call for a global and substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. They also prompt for local implementation of sustainable mitigation strategies and for public health actions in order to reduce the lethal impact of climate change.

P-2201-04

## Between the mazes of Climate Scenarios

B. Van Den Hurk (1)

(1) KNMI, Model Development, De Bilt, Netherlands

Climate scenarios, such as those prepared for the Dutch Climate Adaptation program, are useful instruments to cast a large collection of possible future evolutions in a generic reference framework. But these scenarios necessarily only describe the bigger picture, and miss the elementary details that govern every day decision making. Challenging events are governed by a mixture of weather phenomena, infrastructure design, preparedness "on the ground" and compounding features. Here we illustrate a number of approaches relying both on past events and (synthetic) future weather cases that can provide the necessary additional "real life" material that is needed to support informed decision making.

# 2202 - Turn down the Heat: Climate Change Impacts, Development and Lock-in

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2202-01

#### Development and the New Climate Normal

R. Kyte (1)

(1) World Bank, Washington D.C., United States of America

As the planet warms, heat and other weather extremes which occur once in hundreds of years, if ever, and considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the "new climate normal" as we approach 4°C. Ending poverty, increasing global prosperity and reducing global inequality, already difficult, will be much harder with 2°C warming, but at 4°C there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. The urgency for action is even more critical, with growing evidence that warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is locked-in to the Earth's atmospheric system.

The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. This presentation will look at the consequences of increased warming for the key geographic regions that the World Bank Group is engaged in, and action areas which are urgently needed to confront the development challenge. [A new global climate agreement in Paris this year needs to speak as loudly of economic transformation as it does of carbon emissions target. 2015 is a critical year for countries to re-think the

way they manage their economies]. It's increasingly clear that smart policy choices can deliver economic, health and climate benefits. Come hear how the Bank is working with client counties to address this unprecedented challenge.

### K-2202-02

#### The implications of climate mitigation policy for the impacts of climate change

N. Arnell (1)

(1) University of Reading, Walker institute, Reading, United Kingdom

The broad aim of climate mitigation policy is to avoid the dangerous impacts of climate change. The definition of 'dangerous' is of course contested, and there are many potential definitions. The Copenhagen Accord states the aspiration of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and other groups are urging low level temperature targets. Meanwhile, existing and new pledges for future emissions will imply different - and probably larger - increases in global temperature. Most attention is given to the economic, technical, political and social implications of achieving specific emissions reductions, but it is also necessary to assess the impacts that are avoided or delayed by mitigation policies. This is partly because it helps define the benefits of climate mitigation, and partly because it highlights the impacts that remain: this helps inform
national and international adaptation policies.

This keynote talk will present results from the UK AVOID programme, which is concerned with both identifying and quantifying impacts of climate change under different potential emissions pathways and assessing the technical and economic feasibility of these pathways. The focus of this presentation is on the impacts avoided and delayed by climate mitigation. It considers global and regional impacts on a range of sectors including water resources, flooding, agriculture and energy demand, and evaluates how these impacts are affected – globally and regionally – under different mitigation pathways. The effects of climate change and mitigation policy are expressed in terms of the magnitude of impact and the risks of impacts exceeding specific thresholds.

The presentation concludes by reviewing the key issues involved in assessing the implications of climate mitigation policy for impacts, which include the representation of adaptation within global-scale impact assessments, the treatment of uncertainties, and the presentation of results in terms meaningful to climate policymakers and negotiators.

## K-2022-03

# Visions of Global Responses to Climate Change - Lock-in and Transformation

### J. Dangerman (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

This keynote will discuss the central dynamics of complex systems that determine change and lack of change. Or, in more specific terms, that determine transformation and lock-in. It will also present a case that illustrates these dynamics and their effects in practice.

Important portions of yesterday's and today's socio-technological-political decisions extrapolate the past into the future and thereby profoundly constrain the possibilities of important systems to transform themselves non-catastrophically so that they can help mitigate their current and future effect on climate change and the ensuing impacts on nature and humanity. The transpiring rigification of these systems is eminent from essential perspectives and in fact provides grounds for structural alternative development. However, the constraints caused are often underestimated and misinterpreted and the accompanying alternative decisions are frequently not so profoundly breaking with the past. The development of a key actor in climate change, the global energy system, provides ample examples of these instances and on a macro-scale shows the ensuing lock-in patterns.

This keynote therefore provides a simple and stylised view on the universal workings of the fundamental dynamics that determine the behaviour of evolving complex systems, such as cells, the human brain, organisms, organisations, technologies, societies and economies. It uses the concepts of effectiveness & efficiency and chaos & organisation in the context of the cyclical and periodical behaviour of these systems to explain the dynamics of both transformation and lock-in.

It ends with a discussion of a research paper about the role of energy efficiency policies in the building industry (called «Best Practice Policies for Low Carbon & Energy Buildings Based on Scenario Analysis», authored by the Center For Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University) to elucidate the lock-in dynamics, their consequences and their implications for policy making. Three scenarios explain the potential for the buildings sector to mitigate energy consumption in China, the EU, India and the USA. The most ambitious scenario shows the benefit and necessity of taking today's best practice to a global scale.

## O-2022-01

# Hydrological variability, transboundary floods and institutions: an exploration of tomorrow's bottlenecks

### M. Bakker (1) ; J. Duncan, (2)

(1) Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (2) University of Vermont, Vermont, United States of America

Floods are among the world's most frequent and damaging types of disasters and annually affect the lives of millions all over the globe. Over time, human exposure and vulnerability to floods has increased with a growing and increasingly urbanized population. The projected effects of climate change on hydrology, aggravated by a range of social, economic and political processes will continue to increase this vulnerability. Nonetheless, vulnerability of societies and their institutions to floods remains poorly understood.

### Purpose

Using global data, we examine the nexus of transboundary flood events and social vulnerability: which international river basins (IRBs) have experienced transboundary floods, i.e. floods that affect two or more countries, in the past, and which are forecast to experience increased hydrological variability in the future, but lack institutional provisions, i.e. river basin organizations and/or treaties, to deal with these shared events?

### Methodology

Current data and research on institutional capacity deriving from treaties as listed in the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (Yoffe, Ward and Wolf, 2000; De Stefano et al. 2012) will be refined by looking more specifically at the roles that river basin organizations functioning and treaty composition play in flood management. IRBs will be stratified by the type of climate-related stress they may face in terms of hydrological change and the aspects of society most affected by flooding. Then, this updated information will be merged and weighted to produce a vulnerability ranking specific to floods and the institutions designed to manage them.

### Results and conclusions

A global vulnerability ranking of IRBs and cities when it comes to transboundary floods, climate-driven hydrological variability and institutional capacity.

### Societal relevance

The findings of this research will significantly increase our certainty in regards on transboundary flood events, projected variability regimes related to the shared waters between countries, and flood-related international institutional capacity. These insights will help policymakers of tomorrow identify and evaluate potential tipping points related to transboundary river floods.

## O-2022-02

# Past and future weather-induced risk in agriculture

### J. Elliott (1) ; C. Müller (2)

(1) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America;

(2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

The global food system has seen increased volatility in recent years, with spiking food prices blamed for civil unrest on several continents. Rising prices for global commodity products like maize, soy, meat and palm are increasingly driving deforestation around the globe, and with agriculture increasingly interconnected to global food and energy markets, weather-related risk and supply-side shocks have become a key issue of concern for government and businesses alike. Speculation about the risk of future large-scale extremes have led some authors to contend that more people will suffer in future from large-scale drought and heat events than any other climate-change-related disaster.

Using best-available archives of global crop and climate models from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Data Integration (AMICI) and the Interregional Impact Model Intercomparison (ISI-MIP), we look first at the impacts of 65 years of continental and global extreme events using observation-driven models and data. We identify the most severe historical events in caloric terms at national to global scales and evaluate the ability of models and model ensembles to identify weather-induced extreme years, correctly assess the magnitude of large-scale extreme events, reproduce historical country-level variability, and reproduce spatial patterns of losses under extreme drought.

We next consider these global crop models driven with large ensembles of climate model output (both under historical forcing and with future scenarios) to characterize present day risk and the extent of non-stationary risk in
global crop production. We find increasing, and in many cases accelerating risk, of extreme global loss events even in scenarios with little to no climate-induced long-term mean changes. In some cases, global-scale production loss events that would have recently been called 1-in-100 year events are estimated to occur every 30 years by mid-century, and ever 10-20 years by end-of-century.

We present these scenarios and consider regional and global protective measures that might be introduced, including increased trade, stock-hoarding, crop breeding, and improved forecasts, monitoring, and modeling. We also consider the extent to which aggressive carbon mitigation may decrease the risk of extreme loss events in future.

## O-2202-03

### Climate indicators of pace and perception of changes over the 21st century

Y. Chavaillaz (1) ; S. Joussaume (1) ; S. Bony (2) ; P. Braconnot (1) ; R. Vautard (1)

(1) LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) LMD-IPSL, Paris, France

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and a future period. They emphasize stronger warming and increasingly modified precipitation patterns as we move further from the current climate. This long-term vision is adopted in order to characterize quantitatively the magnitude and expected effects of mitigation policies across the globe, but is not well suited to discuss coming generations' experience. In this study, we propose an alternative approach that considers indicators of pace and perception of changes using projections of a General Circulation Model ensemble. It first consists in tracking statistics and their projected changes with a 20-year running baseline, defining the time evolution of the pace at which climate changes on the scale of a generation. Then, distributions of the following and previous 20 years are compared for each year to theoretically assess the perception of changes. We focus here on the annual and seasonal evolution of surface air temperature and precipitation.

Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), the warming rate and its perception become far stronger over the 21st century, with a maximum reached around 2060. While northern high-latitudes witness a higher temperature rise, all other latitudes highlight at least a doubling in the warming rate and indicators of perception are at their highest value in the tropics, especially in West Africa and South-East Asia.

As for precipitation under the same pathway, moistening and drying rates strongly increase at global scale. Regions with significant rate of change expand more and more over the 21st century. Moreover, rate patterns tend to spatially stabilize, making them persistent in some regions that also exhibit the largest rates and the largest increases of rate by 2080: e.g. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic.

These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. Only the strongest mitigation pathway (RCP2.6) leads to a global return to historical regime. This approach shows that, under strong emissions, one should be prepared for higher adaptation rates in the coming decades regarding temperature and precipitation change.

## 2202-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2202-01

#### Mitigation and Adaptation are not enough: turning to emissions reduction abroad

A. Ayong Le Kama (1) ; A. Pomerent, (2)

(1) Economix, University of Paris West, Nanterre - La Defense, Nanterre, Cedex, France; (2) School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, G5702, 5/F., Academic 1, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong

In this paper we focus on a long-term dynamic analysis of the optimal adaptation/mitigation mix in the presence of a pollution threshold above which adaptation is no longer efficient.

We account for accumulation in abatement capital, greenhouse gases, and adaptation capital in order to better capture the arbitrage between abatement and adaptation investments.

Pollution damages arise from the emissions due to the country consumption but also from the emissions of the rest of the world (ROW).

A pollution threshold is then introduced, above which adaptation is no longer efficient. We obtain that if this threshold is lower than the steady-state level of pollution, there is no way for the modeled economy to avoid it. In particular, such a situation will appear if the ROW's emissions are high.

Next step is then to introduce another type of investment allowing for lower ROW pollution ie. emissions reduction abroad through some mechanisms like CDM for instance. We obtain that CDM may be a means to avoid a pollution threshold above which adaptation becomes of no use.

### P-2202-02

#### Two degrees or not two degrees: that is the question - interim results from ICA-RUS project

S. Emori (1) ; T. Kiyoshi (1) ; Y. Yamagata (1) ; S. Kanae (2) ; S. Mori (3) ; Y. Fujigaki (4)

(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan;

(3) Tokyo University of Science, Department of Industrial Administration, Noda, Chiba, Japan; (4) The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Politically, the long-term target of climate change might not actually be a question at this moment. However, we have to repeatedly ask ourselves the question - whether it should really be "two degrees" and why - to ensure that the target is kept transparent, responsible and relevant.

We have tackled this issue from a risk management perspective in an interdisciplinary research project, called the Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) since 2012, funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. It has tried to integrate insights from the areas of climate risk assessment, energy economics modeling, energy-water-food-ecosystem nexus, and STS (science, technology and society). By a risk management perspective, we mean that the problem is framed as an informed, adaptive decision making under uncertainties (potentially including deep uncertainties), involving social value judgment.

We have supposed three "Alternatives left to humanity" represented by mitigation targets, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C, below which humanity tries to keep the global mean temperature increase relative to preindustrial levels at a probability of 50% (which roughly translate into 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 degrees C targets at a higher probability like 80%).

For each alternative mitigation target, potential consequences have been assessed for various sectors including disastrous weather events, water resources, agriculture, health, ecosystem and tipping elements. The potential consequences are represented by a range taking into account uncertainties in climate, mitigation and socio-economics. Thus, for example, even if 2.0 degrees C target is set, the potential consequence includes a 3.0 degrees or higher global mean temperature increase associated with corresponding impacts, due to various kinds of uncertainties.

At the same time, possible combinations of mitigation options and associated mitigation costs have been assessed for each mitigation target with multiple energy economics models with different modeling assumptions. Various risks and opportunities (side-effects and co-benefits) associated with each mitigation option are also kept in mind.

Putting these assessments together, the project is currently in the process of characterizing the risks to be reduced and to be retained for each "Alternative" (i.e., each mitigation target). As a next step, adaptation effort needed
and potential effect of geoengineering consideration for each Alternative will be assessed. Possible public participation process in the risk decision to enhance social rationality is also being discussed.

P-2202-03

Modelling ecosystem response to present and future drought events in Western Europe with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model

AJ. Henrot (1) ; M. Dury (1) ; A. Hambuckers (2) ; G. Munhoven (3) ; I. Jacquemin (1) ; L. Francois (1)

(1) Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Département d'astrophysique, de géophysique et d'océanographie, Liège, Belgium; (2) Biologie du Comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale, Département de biologie, écologie et évolution, Liège, Belgium; (3) Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphérique et Planétaire, Département d'astrophysique, de géophysique et d'océanographie, Liège, Belgium

With unprecedented speed and extent, future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. These extreme events might lead to severe impacts on terrestrial plants functioning, implying reduction in net primary production and possibly plant mortality in many regions. The Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Integration and Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) has been explicitly designed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce observed historical variability, and response to present-day and future extreme climatic events, reflecting the interest of the community as well as stakeholders in this particular topic.

In this contribution, we analyse the results over Western Europe of the ISI-MIP2 simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4, 82-99), for a series of well-marked drought events in the simulated historical and future periods. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 99 species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees), especially designed to represent the European vegetation. Model response to drought events is evaluated in terms of several important environmental variables, such as soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT/species abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, and turnover of soil organic matter. Some sensitivity tests are performed to study the impacts of changing some not well-constrained model parameters, such as thresholds and response times for plant mortality induced by soil water stress.

P-2202-04

When can we expect to see the benefits of climate mitigation?

B. Sanderson (1) ; B. O'neill (2) ; C. Tebaldi (3) ; G. Strand (4)

(1) NCAR, Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) NCAR, CGD, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (4) NCAR, Boulder, United States of America

We present a two 30 member ensembles of possible future climate using a single climate model, CESM, to assess the question of when climate mitigation action becomes evident in the presence of irreducible internal climate variability. Our business-as-usual and mitigation ensembles assume the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios respectively, and we find that although internal variability causes a comparable

uncertainty to the differences in forced climate response until 2050, significant differences in the risk of extreme warm events are evident in as early as 2025 in the two scenarios for some regions (and for most regions by 2040). Furthermore, the following decades from 2050-2080 see largely separate temperature distributions in the two ensembles for most regions, although we do not see significant differences in precipitation between the two scenarios even for periods after 2060. Hence, in the CESM's representation of the Earth System for the latter portion of the 21st century, the risks of impacts related to temperature extremes in the next 20 years can be significantly reduced by greenhouse gas mitigation, even in the presence of internal climate variability.

P-2202-05

Influence of Water Resource Management on Altering Hydrological Drought under Climate Change

Y. Satoh (1) ; K. Yoshimura (2) ; P. Yadu (3) ; H. Kim (4) ; T. Oki (5)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Water, Laxenburg, France; (2) The University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and ocean research institute, Kashiwa, Japan; (3) Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Camden, United States of America; (4) The University of Tokyo, Institute of industrial science, Tokyo, Japan; (5) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

It is expected that global warming alters hydrometeorological cycle and influences on occurrence of drought. Future drought is projected to increase with high probability in some regions, such as the Mediterranean region, the west side of USA and so on, resulting in severer water scarcity. Nevertheless only few studies have investigated the effect of planned water management, such as dam regulation and irrigation, against drought. Understanding of the effect of existing infrastructures under changing water-environment is needed for our society to adapt to future climate changes. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the effect of the anthropogenic activities on terrestrial water cycle as well as the impacts of climate changes.

This study focuses on hydrological drought, particularly on stream drought. HiGW-MAT, a state of arts land surface model capable to reproduce energy and water cycle considering the anthropogenic water management, was used to simulate historical and future terrestrial water cycle under RCP scenarios. Five bias-corrected CMIP5 GCM outputs provided by ISI-MIP fast track for 1980-2099 were used to force a set of simulations.

Future drought was projected, and hot spots of climate change impact were detected with uncertainty discussion. It was found that number of hydrological drought days would increase and decrease over approximately 70 % and 25 % of global land. Increase of drought days in the first half of 21st century is larger than that of the second half in 19 out of 26 regions of IPCC regional classification. The effect of anthropogenic water management is depicted as a difference between simulations with and without anthropogenic components. As for time series variation, the difference showed that both of short-term variation and long-term change are alleviated by introduction of water management, though it was also suggested that exploitation of water from river due to water use accelerates drought. This model exercise presents a valuable preliminary evaluation of human impact for the purpose of planning of more practical assessment which provides optimal water management scenarios.
# 2203 - Defining dangerous climate change: Contributions from the AR5 'Key Risks' and 'Reasons for Concern' frameworks and future directions

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2203-01

#### The IPCC Reasons for Concern: History, current status, and future directions

**B. O'neill (1)**

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America

The Reasons for Concern (RFCs) framework, developed in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), organizes scientific information to inform decisions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 contains the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". The framework facilitates judgments about changes in impacts, risks, and vulnerability as a function of global mean warming by sorting and aggregating them into five categories viewed from a global perspective. The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating these judgments have been widely discussed and applied. We sketch the history of the use of the RFC framework in IPCC assessments and describe refinements made for the recent Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In AR5, the RFCs were reframed to define all five categories in terms of risk. In addition, a more consistent approach to judging risk was used that was linked to the concept of Key Risks that was used across much of the Working Group 2 report. We also illustrate how risk judgments are grounded in the scientific literature and highlight remaining challenges to making such judgments. Useful improvements to the RFC framework include better accounting for alternative metrics of climate change beyond the level of global average temperature change, explicit incorporation of the future vulnerability of society and ecosystems, and better communicating the specific risks over which RFC categories aggregate.

### K-2203-02

#### Reasons For Concern as a Tool for Assessing Dangerous Climate Change and their Utility for Climate Negotiations

**L. Charles (1)**

(1) Charles & Associates, Inc., St. George's, Grenada

The Reasons for Concern framework has been used by the IPCC to communicate its results to policy makers in a policy informative, but not policy prescriptive manner. It assesses the risks in light of the UNFCCC Article 2 – to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system – by presenting a continuous representation of how key risks change with temperature rise. The framework has been used in the UNFCCC negotiations as one of the key inputs to the process of the 2013–2015 review of the adequacy long-term global goal under the UNFCCC.

Key issues that I will explore in this context are (a) how well do RFCs reflect the full scope of Article 2, including impacts on ecosystems, food production and sustainable development? and (b) the extent of its use in the UNFCCC review, the results obtained from its use and the utility of these results.

From a policy perspective, the RFC framework has approached the analysis of these risks through a global lens. However, policy responses to these risks take place at the national and regional levels, primarily through adaptation action. It is therefore very relevant to also review the framework's applicability in informing policy at the national and regional levels. This will be done from the perspective of Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

Key questions to explore in this context include:

* What is dangerous Climate Change from the perspective of SIDS? What are their key risks? How well do the RFCs reflect these risks?

* How are these RFCs, and the associated risk levels, perceived by policy makers and does that match with the scientific definitions? Are these consistent with SIDS experience of the impacts from these risks and their perception of these risks?

* Does this framework help SIDS to assess these risks? What kinds of decisions can policy-makers arrive at from using this framework?

In reviewing these questions, two major obstacles can be identified, which may be of general importance beyond the SIDS context. Firstly, is the somewhat different character of the RFCs. While RFC 1,2 and 5 (unique systems, extreme events and singular events) are clearly defined and understandable, this is not the case for RFC 3 and 4 (distribution and aggregated impacts), where the names of the RFCs may imply a different assessment than what is in the scope of the RFCs.

A second obstacle identified is connected to the question of the translation from regional to global risks and relates to the assessment of the specific risk levels. In particular, the step from moderate to high risks is crucial. While moderate risks reflect that "associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change", high risks indicate "severe and widespread impacts". From the perspective of a region that is highly vulnerable but not widespread in terms of land area, this is not an intuitive categorization, since there is a lot between these two risk levels and the question arises re how high, or very high, local risks translate to global risks in such an assessment.

In my presentation, I will reflect on these issues and discuss the pros and cons of the RFC approach giving special consideration to its usefulness for the UNFCCC process and for SIDS. I will also discuss a potential way forward for further improvements of the concept.

### O-2203-01

#### Key risks in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report: a basis for evaluating and responding to danger from climate change

**K. Mach (1); M. Mastrandrea (1); V. Barros, (2); C. Field (3)**

(1) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII TSU, Stanford, CA, United States of America; (2) Universidad de Buenos Aires / IPCC WGII, Buenas Aires, Argentina; (3) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America

The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report provides a cohesive and integrative assessment of key risks in a changing climate. The assessment informs judgments about danger from climate change, and it provides an actionable summary of the opportunities for response. This presentation will introduce the assessment framework developed, the resulting conclusions about risks and options across possible climate futures, and the implications for future research and assessment. In the Fifth Assessment Report, key risks are defined as potentially severe impacts relevant to Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They emerge from high hazard or high vulnerability or exposure of affected societies and systems. Across chapters of the assessment, authors identified key risks based on expert judgment using specific criteria, encompassing large magnitude or high probability of impacts, timing or irreversibility of impacts, persistent vulnerability or exposure contributing to risks, or limited potential to reduce risks through adaptation or mitigation. For key risks across sectors and regions, the assessment evaluates changing levels of risk over the next few decades, an era of some further locked-in
warming, and in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, a longer-term era of climate options. It considers the potential for risk reduction through adaptation along with the limits to adaptation. Throughout, the risk levels reflect probability and consequence over a full range of possible outcomes due to climatic and non-climatic factors. Key risks spanning sectors and regions include risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods from flooding and extreme heat, of food and water insecurity, and of ecosystem and biodiversity loss, as well as systemic risks from extreme events. Overall, the key risk assessment supports the report's overarching conclusion about risks globally with continued high emissions: increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. The key risk assessment also highlights defining features of the climate challenge and priorities for future research. These include the importance of complex, multi-step interactions in shaping risks, the need for rigorous expert judgment in evaluating risks, the limitations in current abilities to quantify risks, and the centrality of risk perceptions, values, and goals in determining responses.

## O-2203-02

### Measuring the dynamics of risks at the global and local level: information for transformative change

J. Birkmann (1); T. Welle, (1); W. Solecki (2); M. Garschagen, (3); M. Pelling, (4); J. Agbola, (5)

(1) Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, New York City, United States of America; (3) United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; (4) King's College London, Department of geography, London, United Kingdom; (5) Lago State University, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Key risks identified in the IPCC AR5 encompass various themes and dimensions, however, all these risks underscore the influence of climate change on hazards and the significance of exposure and vulnerability as determinants of risk. Based on selected risks identified in the AR5 the presentation examines how core determinants of hazards and their dynamics, namely hazard patterns, exposure and vulnerability at the global and local scale, can be measured and quantified. Measuring changing hazard conditions, exposure of people and their vulnerability demonstrate that particularly increasing exposure contributes to increasing risks levels in various countries and urban areas (global overview). This global overview with national level resolution will be complemented by two local risk studies.

The second part of the paper examines risk configurations and changes in risk profiles for selected large-scale, coastal cities. Coastal cities are at the forefront of living with climate and socio-economic change. Existing adaptation and development visions that should address key risks tend towards policies for stability (resistance) or flexibility to protect existing core functions (resilience). There is increasing recognition in the academic literature that a third policy option of fundamental change (transformation) is needed in order to address key determinants of the key risks also named in the AR5. Against this background changes in local risk profiles and risk trends are examined and specific policy options to confront these risks are discussed. This part of the presentation draws from a Belmont Forum funded study, Transformation and Resilience on Urban Coasts (TRUC), that examines five coastal megacities to begin to profile transformative options based on the assessment of dynamics of hazards, exposure and vulnerability to climate change related risks.

Concrete examples of past and present risk patterns are presented using the case studies of New York and Lagos. In addition, methods and results of new scenario techniques are shown that underscore the importance of exploring future pathways to ensure climate change next to climate change scenarios. Differences and synergies between quantitative and qualitative scenario techniques will be explored using the local level risk studies. In conclusion, we formulate recommendations on how to use this information on changing risk profiles for promoting resilience and transformative change at local level focusing on policy options for adaptation in the two case studies.

## O-2203-03

### Downscaling the "Reasons for Concerns" to the Local Government Level as a Prerequisite for Tailored Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction - A Case Study from Austria

AM. Hama (1); L. Anders, (2); A. Baumgarten, (3); H. Rethold, (3); B. Eder (1); A. Felderer, (4); O. Fritz, (5); J. Jandl (6); M. Keuschnig, (1); S. Kienberger (7); M. Leitner (4); Z. Malek, (8); R. Mechler (8); I. Meyer, (5); I. Offenthaler, (4); A. Schaffhauser, (2); F. Sinabell, (5); R. Spiekermann, (7) (1) alps Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria; (2) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMV), Vienna, Austria; (3) Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Vienna, Austria; (4) Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria; (5) Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria; (6) Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Vienna, Austria; (7) University of Salzburg, Department of geoinformatics - z.gis, Salzburg, Austria; (8) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenbruck, Austria

IPCC's Burning Embers - Reasons for Concern illustrate the future global risk development split into five categories and visualize the trends. To date, this holistic concept has not been transferred to the local government level where assessment of climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- and hazard-specific manner rather than in a scenario-based way.

In the project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) funded by the Austrian Climate Research Program, closing this gap is a research focus, and a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation approach is developed. The City of Lienz in East Tyrol, Austria serves as a pilot site for ARISE. The project's overall objectives are (i) to contribute to identifying and bridging the gaps between global frameworks, research and policy related to climate change and disaster risk reduction and national, subnational as well as local risk management and adaptation needs and requirements by coupling and integrating information across scales, (ii) to downscale the "Burning Embers - Reasons for Concern" to the local level (LBE) with respect to hazard types and sectors including a consideration of key risk drivers, and (iii) to support the building of resilience and adaptation capacities at the local level via an LBE-integrated, iterative risk management approach that takes participatory processes and learning from practitioners into account.

In order to meet the project's objectives, user-oriented methods in the form of hybrid techniques (top-down and bottom-up, model-driven and participatory) are used. To date, interviews with various stakeholder groups have been conducted and a comprehensive desk review on global, regional and national frameworks has been completed. Based on this input, the generic framework for downscaling the Burning Embers - Reasons for Concern to the local level has been developed. To apply this framework to the study site, regional climate scenarios for the City of Lienz have been computed. Further methods for determining the LBEs include the building of regional socio-economic scenarios by focusing on region-specific knowledge and visions (by means of a scenario workshop), supported by socio-economic modelling. Moreover, a land-use scenario is being developed and indicators have been determined that also take confidence levels into account. In order to integrate the LBEs into the local risk management of Lienz and design tailored climate-sensitive risk management measures, a collaborative approach will be taken again, test runs will be conducted as well as a monitoring&evaluation concept devised. All information and processes will be fed into a dynamic risk information tool. The decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management will be standardized to enable a wider application and roll-out.

In this presentation, an overview of the ARISE project and its pathway will be given. The generic framework as well as its application to the City of Lienz will be presented and challenges discussed. Additionally, an outlook on the next steps and expected findings to be obtained through the integration of the LBEs with risk management and adaptation strategies will be provided.
## A regional differentiation of climate impacts at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C

CF. Schleussner (1) ; T. Lissner (1) ; J. Wohland (2) ; E. Fischer (3) ; K. Frieler (4)

(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Article 2 of the UNFCCC specifies that the aim of the convention is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Limiting global mean warming below 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels has been widely accepted as a global goal in this context. However, many vulnerable countries, particularly small island developing states and least developed countries, have questioned whether this limit is sufficient to protect their interests, and as a consequence there is an international process under way to evaluate risks and damages at different levels of warming, including 1.5°C and 2°C. Studies of current and expected future impacts of climate change suggest that significant negative impacts, relevant to Article 2 of the UNFCCC may be felt at lower levels of warming than 2°C. Within the UNFCCC there is a formal process reviewing the 2' limit, and examining the possibility of changing it towards 1.5°C.

At present there is a gap in the scientific literature and methods to rigorously and qualitatively assess differential impacts at these levels of warming. Here we present a framework that allows for a differentiation of regional changes in climate impacts at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase, focusing on the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C. Based on data from the CMIP5 archive as well as output from the ISIMIP project, we have been described since the beginning of the years used in the IPCC SREX report. We show results for several extreme event indices as well as projections of water availability and agricultural yields. Furthermore, we are able to test for statistical significance of changes in climate impact projections between the different warming levels across the model ensemble.

As climate impacts are not necessarily linear, it is important to understand whether a significant shift in the magnitude of impacts may occur between the different temperature levels and little attention has been given to such a shift at lower levels of warming. Furthermore, the consequences of average global temperature increase are not linearly distributed across regions. A differentiation of the spatial manifestation of change is therefore of high relevance for regional planning, in order to develop suitable coping strategies and adaptation options, as well as to inform decisions about the appropriate long-term global temperature goal.

## Defining dangerous climate change in accordance to international law: What is and is not “dangerous” and how to define “dangerousness”? International standards for certain basic considerations for “policy-makers”, “policy-takers”, scientist and jurists

S. Pena (1)

(1) Universidad Bernardo O Higgins, Law and Environment, Santiago de Chile, Chile

It has been a common theme among commentators the consequences for living forms on the change of climate. The main problem is to define "danger" before it comes to a natural disaster. Natural disasters have been faced in Chile and South American countries in the last ten years and they have been described since the beginning of the discovery by Christopher Columbus in 1492. The "El Niño" and "La Niña" environmental phenomena are some of the effects in the change of the weather defined by indigenous

people and local communities. This might be described as the "minimum" danger, a danger that has been noticed clearly by none experts. On the other hand has been noticed clearly by humans, it is subtle danger. Climate change is a "silence disaster" because it affects slowly but without capability to be aware of the damage that can contain the consequences that are established in between the defined basic change and the disaster, therefore in a moment it is necessary to define the concept of "current strong danger". This article will focus on the capacity of international law to present certain basic elements for policy makers and policy takers (defined as those that implement or propose change of policies and laws at the national level) in order to define "menace" on the human and natural environment. The article also focuses on the destruction of habitats when the change of the climate is able to destroy such habits. In this sense rights and obligations between States, from States to human and "non-human" beings and for the Nature are proposals to define "current strong danger". When those rights to life have been affected by the modification of the climate a first approach towards the definition of "danger" will be in place. Therefore the process of prevention has to be attained and measured as regards mitigation and recovery has to be established. International law and law in general has defined many of these words like equitability, justice, "fumus bonis iuris" and now is necessary to define "danger" in a present and solid form based on international law. A first approach will be international conventions on climate change and economic rights of persons, human rights of the persons and possibly the Rights of Nature.

## A regional differentiation of climate impacts at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C

CF. Schleussner (1) ; T. Lissner (1) ; J. Wohland (2) ; E. Fischer (3) ; K. Frieler (4)

(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Article 2 of the UNFCCC specifies that the aim of the convention is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Limiting global mean warming below 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels has been widely accepted as a global goal in this context. However, many vulnerable countries, particularly small island developing states and least developed countries, have questioned whether this limit is sufficient to protect their interests, and as a consequence there is an international process underway to evaluate risks and damages at different levels of warming, including 1.5°C and 2°C. Studies of current and expected future impacts of climate change suggest that significant negative impacts, relevant to Article 2 of the UNFCCC may be felt at lower levels of warming than 2°C. Within the UNFCCC there is a formal process reviewing the 2' limit, and examining the possibility of changing it towards 1.5°C.

At present there is a gap in the scientific literature and methods to rigorously and qualitatively assess differential impacts at these levels of warming. Here we present a framework that allows for a differentiation of regional changes in climate impacts at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase, focusing on the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C. Based on data from the CMIP5 archive as well as output from the ISIMIP project, we assess the climate impact projections for the 26 world regions used in the IPCC SREX report. We show results for several extreme event indices as well as projections of water availability and agricultural yields. Furthermore, we are able to test for statistical significance of changes in climate impact projections between the different warming levels across the model ensemble.

As climate impacts are not necessarily linear, it is important to understand whether a significant shift in the magnitude of impacts may occur between the different temperature levels and little attention has been given to such a shift at lower levels of warming. Furthermore, the consequences of average global temperature increase are not linearly distributed across regions. A differentiation of the spatial manifestation of change is therefore of high relevance for regional planning,
in order to develop suitable coping strategies and adaptation options, as well as to inform decisions about the appropriate long-term global temperature goal.

## P-2203-04

### Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

M. Williamson (1) ; T. Lenton (1)

(1) university of exeter, exeter, United Kingdom

We generalize a method of detecting an approaching bifurcation in a time series of a noisy system from the special case of one dynamical variable to multiple dynamical variables. For a system described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of an autonomous deterministic part with one dynamical variable and an additive white noise term, small perturbations away from the system's fixed point will decay slower the closer the

system is to a bifurcation. This phenomenon is known as critical slowing down and all such systems exhibit this decay-type behaviour. However, when the deterministic part has multiple coupled dynamical variables, the possible dynamics can be much richer, exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic behaviour. In our generalization to the multi-variable case, we find additional indicators to decay rate, such as frequency of oscillation. In the case of approaching a homoclinic bifurcation, there is no change in decay rate but there is a decrease in frequency of oscillations. The expanded method therefore adds extra tools to help detect and classify approaching bifurcations given multiple time series, where the underlying dynamics are not fully known. Our generalisation also allows bifurcation detection to be applied spatially if one treats each spatial location as a new dynamical variable. One may then determine the unstable spatial mode(s). This is also something that has not been possible with the single variable method. The method is applicable to any set of time series regardless of its origin, but may be particularly useful when anticipating abrupt changes in the multi-dimensional climate system.

## 2204 - A world above 2°C global warming: understanding risks and developing transformative solutions

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### O-2204-01

##### Transformative solutions to high-end climate change

D. Tabara (1) ; J. Jaeger (2) ; P. Harrison (3) ; I. Holman (4)

(1) Independent consultant - UAB, ICTA, Barcelona, Spain; (2)

Independent Consultant, Vienna, Austria; (3) Environmental

Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (4) Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom

Current trends in greenhouse gas emissions show that limiting global warming to the international target of 2°C is likely to be difficult. Despite the increasing plausibility of high-end scenarios, there are few studies that assess transformative strategies and solutions to address potential synergies and trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. The latest IPCC AR5 report defines transformation as 'a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems [...]. It reflects strengthened, altered, or aligned paradigms, goals, or values towards promoting adaptation that supports sustainable development, including poverty reduction' (IPCC 2014; WGII, SP.5). However, the notion and implications of transformation in climate science and policy are poorly understood. On the one hand, transformation is an autonomous dimension which does not depend on, or is not necessarily conditioned by, either mitigation or adaptation strategies. But on the other hand, transformative adaptation and transformative mitigation policies can contribute to the development of decisive systems' innovations to cope with high-end scenarios, while at the same time fostering sustainable development. To achieve this goal, knowledge and new modelling tools on how to develop and implement 'global systems of interconnected solutions' are urgently required. The new emerging Global Systems Science (GSS) is a promising approach which could support informed mitigation of climate change, looking at new modes of engagement appraisal, global governance arrangements and engagement with stakeholders. In particular, innovative climate strategies and solutions could take advantage of, and support, a number of global transformative forces already evident outside of the strictly climate domain. These include: 1. Increasing interest in the creation of a global citizenship, e.g., to redistribute global climate rights and responsibilities; 2. The development of win-win solutions to generate a global green low-carbon economy, to replace the brown economy; 3. Opening Human Information and Knowledge Systems (HIKS) and coupling them with Social-Ecological Change, to connect knowledge networks and agents globally to deal with specific sustainability needs and problems; and 4. The generation of distributed and conducive conditions for global cooperation and institutional capacity building, to ensure the equitable implementation of transformative

strategies and policies in the long-term. This presentation will introduce this cluster of interconnected systems of global solutions, referred to as the 'Global Transformation Propeller', and suggest how it could be used to develop and implement transformative responses in the face of high-end scenarios. Our goal is to stimulate an open debate to explore the implications for climate science and policy of existing or potential transformative forces that can be connected to innovative solutions which are able to cope with HES while supporting sustainable development.

#### O-2204-02

##### Avoiding the impacts of climate change: Results from the BRACE study

B. O'neill (1)

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America

Understanding the potential consequences of climate change for ecosystems and society is necessary for an informed response to the climate issue. A particularly important task is improving our understanding of how impacts differ across alternative levels of future climate change. Such understanding can help inform the balancing of the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation with the benefits of reduced impacts. This talk will present results from a project led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate change (BRACE), which assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The latter would lead to a likely global average temperature change of 3.2-5.4°C relative to pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century, the former to a likely range of 1.7-3.2°C degrees of warming. This project is quantifying avoided impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment to examine physical, ecological, and societal impacts, and draws heavily on the use of large initial condition ensembles of climate model simulations in order to better account for internal variability and extreme events and to develop new approaches to pattern scaling techniques. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change vary substantially across sectors, and depend importantly on assumptions about future societal conditions.

#### O-2204-03

##### Understanding and Addressing Infinite and Existential Climate Risks

J. Rockström (1)

(1) Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm university, Stockholm, Sweden
Scientific evidence indicates humanity has entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where the world enterprise constitutes the largest driver of change at the planetary scale. Furthermore, we increasingly find evidence that the social and environmental response to rising human pressures on the planet are non-linear, and that the globalized world of the 21st century is associated with rising social-ecological turbulence. This raises the need to better understand risks of facing infinite or existential risks, i.e., risks that may affect a significant proportion of the global population or the entire world community. In this presentation a presentation is made of a scientific methodology to investigate infinite risks, including global climate risks, and a first assessment of global risks is presented, and compared, e.g., with the FWE global risk report.

O-2204-04

## Sensitivity of Amazonia to climate change: the main uncertainties are effects of Drought, Elevated Temperature and Elevated CO2

B. Kruijt (1); C. Von Randow (2); H. Verbeech (3); P. Meir (4) (1); D. De (3); W. Jans (1); L. Rowland (4); B. Christoffersen (4); D. Galbraith (5); A. Rammig (6); C. Seiler (7)

(1) Alterra, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ccst, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (3) University of Gent, Gent, Belgium; (4) University of Edinburgh, School of geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (5) University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; (6) Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforshung, Potsdam, Germany; (7) University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada

Amazonia is under threat of the combined effects of unsustainable regional development and climate change. As summarised in the IPCC reports of 2007 and 2014, studies in the past ten years indicate that these pressures can lead to deforestation and shortage of the forest for the duration of temperatures and the water cycle, as well as causing loss of carbon stocks and biodiversity, and fire in Amazonia are of overriding importance, here we address three biophysical uncertainties related to the impact of climate change on Amazonia: the effects of drought, elevated temperature and elevated CO2. Model experiments have shown repeatedly that these factors represent the highest uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts.

The EU-FP7 AMAZALERT project has investigated the threats through combining novel field measurements with modelling of feedbacks between Amazonian ecosystems, human-caused land-use change and the climate system. Field measurements indicate that leaf level maximum rate of photosynthesis is not significantly affected by temperature increases. Thus, also with climate change, trees may be well able to maintain high rates of photosynthesis, however, this negative temperature sensitivity is currently overestimated in vegetation models. Data from experimentally droughted forest and of dry years show that in particular large trees of some tree species, are vulnerable to drought, thus potentially risking significant biomass losses. Besides, prolonged (multi-year) drought appears to eventually lead to higher respiration rates, i.e., less efficient growth. However, basin-wide plot measurements indicate that at short timescales (months) the effect is small, but primary production at constant level during, for example in the 2010 drought but photosynthesis was suppressed, autotrophic respiration decreased and carbon allocation patterns changed potentially leading to increased post-drought forest mortality. Such observations provide important insights for model development at the physiological level. The net effect means that under extended drought and warming, if no fire occurs, a long-term change in the species composition and structure of the forest is likely, together with an increase in the amount of dead and decomposing wood, potentially turning the forest into a carbon source.

The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on Amazonian forests can so far only be assessed from theory, which predicts that the forests may become more robust and

may even grow through 'CO2 fertilisation', but this fertilisation effect is limited by the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus. At the same time, theory and some data sets predict that water use efficiency will increase, which may increase forest resistance but also I decrease water cycling, potentially causing a climate warming feedback. The magnitude of these limiting effects is still uncertain due to poor understanding of soil dynamics and this must be improved by rigorously combining measurements and new modelling approaches. Altogether, it is clear that new data are needed and it is essential that these processes will be investigated in a new, whole-ecosystem elevated CO2 experiment such as the AMAZON FACE experiment which is currently being set up in the Amazon basin. These should be combined with other focused research projects further addressing drought and temperature dependence.

O-2204-05

## Implications of growing CO2 emissions for staying below the 2°C limit

P. Friedlingstein (1)

(1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2°C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. I present recent analysis showing that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross home product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

O-2204-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2204-01

## Climate change and very dangerous heat waves: Projecting frequency of high-mortality heat waves in 82 US communities in 2061—2080 under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios

B. Anderson (1); K. Oleson, (2); B. Jones, (3); R. Peng, (4)

(1) Colorado State University, Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, United States of America; (4) Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Biostatistics, Baltimore, MD, United States of America

Certain rare heat waves, like the 2003 heat wave in France, can have devastating effects on a community's public health and well-being. Here, we built models to predict which heat waves are likely to such "very dangerous" heat waves, based on characteristics of the heat wave (e.g., intensity, length) and of the community in which it occurred (e.g., population), using recent (1987–2005) data from 82 large US urban communities. We built twenty potential classification models and used Monte Carlo cross-validations to evaluate these models, identifying three models capable of predicting the occurrence of very dangerous heat waves. Using these three models, we predicted the frequency and high dangerous heat waves in these 82 communities in 2061—2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace). We found that the frequency of very dangerous heat waves was most strongly influenced by the pace at which communities
are able to adapt to their changing climates. We found that the frequency also depended somewhat on climate change scenario, while it was practically unchanged across different population scenarios, although these scenarios did influence projected person-days of exposure to very dangerous heat waves. Our results suggest that it is critical to consider adaptation scenarios when projecting health impacts of heat under climate change scenarios. Further, our findings suggest that community-level adaptation measures are likely to be a critical protection against future very dangerous heat waves.

P-2204-02

## Early Entrants of Rainfall Index Insurance: Insights from Rural Households in Central West Nigeria

D. Awolola (1); A. Mbaye (2); J. Von Vraun (3); W. Fonta (4); S. Sanfo (4)

(1) Centre for Research and Development, Bonn, Germany;

(2) Centre for Research and Development, West African science service centre on climate change and adapted land use (wascal), Bonn, Germany; (3) ZEF, Research, Bonn, Germany; (4) West African Science Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Farmers have traditionally adapted to weather-induced production risks over time. The failures of subsidized crop insurance schemes and rising trends of climate extremes have increases their vulnerability to higher risks. With ideal levels of adaptation, some residual impacts from weather shocks would still lead to economic losses. Rainfall index insurance can transfer farmers' risks and increase supports for agricultural lending. This study used cross-sectional data to analyze the relationship between rainfall index insurance as financial adaptation to extreme local climate in central west Nigeria. The study shows that monthly distribution of rainfall uncertainties thereby constraining optimal planning within the available production period. Farmers' vulnerability to rainfall delay, early cessation, and occasional long dry spell has consequences on resource use productivity. There is demand for rainfall index insurance as nearly 65% demonstrated willingness to insure in the corresponding time. Over 70% are risk-averse but are positively disposed towards insurance. There is a very low confidence in insurance and finance service providers as means of financial adaptation towards resilience. Farmers' education, farming as major livelihood, production risk index, and start bid are significant on households' decisions to insure in rainfall index insurance but households' size, distance to weather station, awareness of agricultural insurance, previous drought experience have inverse coefficient. The more farmers' education, dependence on farm income, production risk index and start bid increases; the higher the probability to belong to both somehow willing and definitely willing category to be insured. Farmers who have access to seasonal forecast are somehow WTP an amount that is 31.7% lower than farmers who do not on average and ceteris paribus. For every unit increase in production risk aversion, there is an increase of 43.7% in the farmers amount WTP on average and ceteris paribus since they are willing to secure their residual risk through market based indemnity transfers. Those already aware of agricultural insurance practices are also somehow WTP 37.6% higher than their fellows with no prior knowledge on average and ceteris paribus to secure their 'residual' risk. Mean (N352.91 and median WTP (N250) obtained from the interval regression are higher for the definitely willing category than the somehow willing. In overall, farmers in somehow willing category are more elastic to price while those in definitely willing category are more inelastic to prices of microinsurance policy. For every unit increase in production risk aversion, there is an increase of 43.7% in the farmers amount WTP on average and ceteris paribus since they are willing to secure their residual risk through market based indemnity transfers. Farmers already aware of agricultural insurance practices are also somehow WTP 37.6% higher than their fellows with no prior knowledge on average and ceteris paribus to secure their 'residual' risk. Mean (N352.91 and median WTP (N250) obtained from the interval regression are higher for the definitely willing category than the somehow willing. In overall, farmers in somehow willing category are more elastic to price while those in definitely willing category are more inelastic to prices of microinsurance policy.

P-2204-03

## Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks under Model Uncertainty Aversion

L. Berger (1); J. Emmerling (2); M. Tavoni (3)

(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; (2) FEEM, Milano, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy

We propose a robust risk management approach to deal with the problem of catastrophic climate change which incorporates both risk and model uncertainty. Using a two-period model of optimal abatement, we show how model uncertainty and risk aversion interact. We disentangle the impact of preferences towards different types of uncertainty from the structure of model uncertainty on the optimal level of abatement, by means of a simple measure of model uncertainty. With data from expert elicitation about climate change catastrophes, we show the relative importance of these two effects and calibrate an integrated assessment model of climate change. The results indicate that the structure of model uncertainty, and specifically the convergence of agreement across models are the key driver of abatement, and that model uncertainty aversion warrants a higher level of climate change mitigation.

P-2204-04

## Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report: Lessons learned for informing management of climate-related risks

M. Mastrandrea (1); K. Mach (1); V. Barros, (2); C. Field (3)

(1) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII TSU, Stanford, CA, United States of America; (2) Universidad de Buenos Aires / IPCC WGII, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (3) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America

This presentation will discuss lessons learned through implementation of a common approach for characterizing the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), with a focus on informing climate risk management in future assessments. Managing climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about how climatic and non-climatic factors will evolve and interact over time. Risks result from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of society, and vary substantially across plausible alternative development pathways. In the IPCC AR5, assessment of risks relied on diverse forms of evidence, including empirical observations, experimental results, process-based understanding, statistical approaches, and simulation and descriptive models. Expert judgment is critical in integrating such diverse evidence into evaluations of risks and in determining the extent to which risks can be quantified. The common approach used in the IPCC AR5 emphasizes assessment of the consequences and relative likelihoods of the widest possible range of future outcomes, including low-probability outcomes with large consequences, to inform risk management. It also emphasizes providing clear traceable accounts of the confidence in and support for assessment findings, describing an author team's evaluation of the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement underlying each finding. Clear traceable accounts ensure users of the assessment can understand the evaluation and integration of evidence supporting assessment findings. Further use of structured methods for organizing and quantifying expert judgment could aid future assessment efforts within and beyond the IPCC in delivering policy-relevant findings with clear traceable accounts and in quantifying climate risks based on a diverse evidence base mixing quantitative and qualitative information.
# Sensitivity of Natural Micro-Regions of North-East Hungary to Landscape Degradation

J. Mika (1) ; A. Kertesz (2)

(1) Eszterházy Karoly University College, Environmmental Sciences and Landscape Ecology, Eger, Hungary; (2) Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary

The objective of our research is to survey degradation processes acting in each micro-region, as well, as to investigate the sensitivity of the micro-regions to degradation. A survey of land degradation processes has been carried out at medium scale (1:50 000) to identify the affected areas of the region. The methods include field work, analysis of topographic maps and remote sensing materials, statistical analyses, GIS methods and preparation of photo documents. The sensitivity of landscapes will change in the future because of global climate change. As a consequence of this, the extent and the intensity of degradation processes may change, too. Regional climate scenarios, based on GCM, RCM and empirical downscaling are all included and synthesized for the specified hilly region of ca. 20,000 sq. km. The scenario, scoping at 50 years ahead with possible linear interpolation and extrapolation in time, include changes of seasonal means and expected changes in some extreme event, as well. The following land degradation processes are included in the database of the present and expected future states: (i.) Land (soil) degradation involving also mass movements (sheet erosion, gully erosion, wind erosion, mass movements, salinization, degradation due to soil structure changes, soil sealing). (ii.) Removal of vegetation due to deforestation and to the extension of urban, industrial areas, transport tracks, etc. (iii.) Degradation of waters. (iv.) Degradation of the scenic value of the landscape. (v.) Degradation due to land use change (other changes than those under (ii.)). (vi.) Wounds in the landscape (abandoned mines, open-cast mines, etc.). (vii.) Desertification. The sensitivity of the natural micro-regions to degradation are determined by applying sensitivity indices. Different factors are the driving forces of the various degradation processes and so different indices are created for each process with specific weighting of the identified factors, mostly based on empirical regression analyses. The concept of the index is based on the MEDALUS index (Kosmas et al. 1999). The factors included in the investigation are: (a) Soil properties (soil structure, soil water budget, organic matter content, salinity, soil parent material). (b) Climate properties (drought index, yearly precipitation, rainfall intensity). (c) Vegetation properties (forest fire risk, sensitivity of vegetation to drought, vegetation cover %). (d) Surface and subsurface water properties (ground water depth, flood risk, inundation risk, anthropogenic load (water use, waste disposal, population change, land use intensity). Finally the sensitivity index values are shown in maps. The sensitivity of natural micro-regions of North-East Hungary is also investigated under the circumstances of the expected climate change scenario, applied to characterise landscape sensitivity in the future. The map of the existing land degradation processes, sensitivity maps of the present and stimulated future climatic conditions are analysed by GIS methods. The map series and the evaluation provide important information about the state and sensitivity of the natural micro-regions and this information is useful for policymakers at different levels. The study has been supported by the OTKA-K108755 national project.

# The relative role of anthropogenic climate change on risk of heat mortality in the European heatwave of 2003

D. Mitchell (1) ; C. Huntingford (2) ; C. Heaviside (3) ; S. Vardoulakis (3) ; F. Otto (1) ; M. Allen (4) ; P. Frumhoff (5)

(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom; (3) Public Health England, Oxford, United Kingdom; (4) University of Oxford, School of Geography and Environment and Dept of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom; (5) Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, United States of America

The 2003 European heat wave was one of the most extreme meteorological events in terms of loss of life in Europe in

recent times. Estimates of excess heat-related deaths for this event could be as high as 70,000, with France being particularly affected.

The chaotic nature of the climate system is such that extreme meteorological events of this magnitude will to some extent always occur "by chance". However external factors may increase or decrease the frequency of occurrence. Such factors include climate change related to anthropogenic influences, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use change, but also natural influences such as changes in solar output, and large volcanic eruptions.

Here we use a unique modelling capability to perform massive ensembles of climate model simulations ("climaprediction-dot-net", CPDN) which enables assessment of any changing probabilities of particular meteorological extremes of interest. We compare scenarios representing the year 2003 (i) as it actually was (i.e. where both natural and anthropogenic conditions are used to drive the climate model; "scenario 1"), and (ii) as it could have been, if humans had not altered atmospheric gas composition (i.e. with only natural conditions; "scenario 2").

This study considers each aspect of the 2003 heat wave, from the inherent warmer atmosphere due to raised greenhouse gas concentrations, and to any additional confounding and related changes in probability of altered large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We use baseline health and demographic data to estimate associated mortality impacts on the local populations. An additional feature of CPDN is that each global simulation contains a high-resolution "nested" regional climate model centred on Europe. This high-resolution modelling capability allows us to perform much of the analysis at the city level. For Scenario's 1 and 2, we therefore show how heat-related mortality changed over Paris during 2003.

# Climate Change Induced Excessive Heat Exposure Undermines Global Health Equity and Economic Development

M. Otto (1) ; B. Lemke, (2) ; T. Kjellstrom, (3) ; C. Freyberg, (3) ; D. Briggs, (3) ; O. Hyatt, (3)

(1) Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Digital Technology, Nelson, New Zealand; (2) Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand; (3) Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand

The physiological limits of the human body in coping with high heat exposure and heat stress are relatively well established since several decades. However, the implications of climate change trends of extreme heat have only recently been analyzed. The health effects include heat exhaustion (which reduces work capacity and labor productivity), clinical heat stroke, exacerbation of certain chronic diseases and acute fatalities. Physical work adds in a major way to the heat stress because of the internal heat production from muscle work.

Our analysis compares the population based estimates of health impacts of heat for selected climate models applied to RCP8.5 (the current emission track) and RCP6.0 (what may be achieved with more stringent climate mitigation policies). The global mean temperature increase this century for RCP8.5 using various models generally ranges between 3 and 5 °C, while the RCP6.0 increase generally ranges between 1.5 and 2.5 °C.

Whichever health outcome is analysed poor people are always at highest risk as they are likely to be in heavy physical work and they cannot afford air conditioning to the same extent as higher income people. Poor people in low and middle income tropical countries are at particular risk as most of these countries already experience several months of extreme heat each year. The heat exposure levels expressed as "millions of person hours of exposure above agreed heat risk limits» are particularly high in these countries from a global health perspective. For example, working people in SE China without air conditioning at the prevailing ambient heat levels, will lose as much as 30% of the daylight work hours in the hottest month and the annual loss will be the 8% as these hours are too hot for moderate level continuous work. In SE USA the equivalent losses are 5% in the hottest month and 2% annually. (more examples will be added in the final presentation)
The increasing heat impacts on clinical health and labor productivity are a growing threat to improvements in health equity at global, national and local level, as the people most vulnerable to heat stress are those with poor living and working environments and many of them already have a poor health status. The labor productivity loss also undermines local economic development and slow down any progress in poverty reduction programs.

P-2204-08

Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

H. Quenol (1)

(1) CNRS-UMR6554 LETG, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France

Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous interrogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions, global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. More real progress in regional climate modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). It is therefore at a finer spatial scale, which considers land surface characteristics, it will be possible to assess the impacts of climate change. Our scientific approach aims to develop a methodology based on climatic observations in situ and on spatial modeling of climate, which permits to evaluate the spatial variability of atmospheric parameters at fine scales (mean values and climatic extremes). By completing the lack of data at local scales, this work allows to improve the understanding on climate changes that may appear at local scale and thus advance the assessment of the potential impacts. This methodology is developed and applied in agro climatology (viticulture) and in urban climatology.

In viticulture, the LIFE-ADVICLIM (LIFE13 ENV/FR/001512: ADapation of Viticulture to CLimate change: High resolution observations on adaptation scenarios for viticulture) project aims at observing climate at local scales in different European vineyards, representing the climate diversity in European wine regions: simulating climate and climate change in order to produce a fine scale assessment of climate change impacts, thereafter simulating scenarios of adaptation for viticulture. Climate modeling at fine scales will include (i) the output from numerical EURO-CORDEX models with a kilometer resolution (ii) the spatial modeling of climatic data from the measurement networks using multicriteria modeling at very high resolution (90 m), and (iii) the future climate simulations using meso-scale climatic model ran under different scenarios of climate change. (i) The coarse resolution output from numerical climate models require downscaling. We use the downscaling output of EURO-CORDEX. It will provide knowledge and understanding of climate variability at meso-scale in the different studied European wine regions. Climatic data from national weather station networks will be used to validate the outputs of modelled data. (ii) In order to construct fine-scale spatial temperature fields, the multicriteria modelling will be used. This approach takes into environmental factors into account. Indeed, the role of topographic factors in the spatial variability of temperatures at fine scales, in addition to the influence of geographical location (latitude/longitude) at larger scale has already been demonstrated. This type of modeling will make use of the climatic data provided by the fine scale network. (iii) We use simulations of climate change scenarios (for Europe) carried out CORDEX program

For example, the results of the measurements and modeling adapted at terror scales have permitted to highlight a strong spatial variability of climate at very small spaces. In terms of temperatures, the spatial differences generated by the local conditions (topography, etc.) are very often greater than the increase in temperatures simulated by the different scenarios of IPCC for the next 50 years. Vine growers adapt their practices to this spatial variability of climate that partly determines the characteristics and uniqueness of their wine. In the context of climate change, this approach of a spatial analysis could be a method to adapt to the temporal changes in climate, especially in the short and medium term.

In urban climatology, the same scientific approach (measurement and modeling at fine scales) has been applied. The same methodology was applied in Rennes city. The results showed a strong spatial variability of the temperatures in relation to local characteristics of the city (eg green areas, densely built-up urban area...). In the context of global change, climate analysis at fine scales helps to define the development policies.

P-2204-09

The risk of drought in Ukraine under changing climate in the future medium term

I. Semenova (1)

(1) Odessa State Environmental University, Theoretical meteorology and meteorological forecasts, Odessa, Ukraine

The territory of Ukraine almost every year is exposed the drought of different intensity and duration. The country is belongs to main agricultural area of East Europe, therefore the drought in vegetation season can considerably worsen the productivity of grain crops. As studies shows, the seasonal (or agricultural) drought is the widespread in Ukraine with dominating in spring and summer time. In last two decades the full vegetation season droughts were observed in 1999, 2007, 2009 and 2012. Most important spring-summer (April-June) drought occurred in 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2012. In these years were fixed the large crop losses of winter wheat and spring barley - 10-43% from the trend.

Under the climate changing is become important the estimates of future drought risks, which is necessary for long-term economic planning. For assessment of the drought frequency in the future was used data of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) for period 2020-2050.

Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of drought was held using the index SPI. For its calculation has been used multimodel (32 models) monthly mean precipitation data for two boundary scenarios, which represents the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), experiment RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.

Under the scenario RCP2.6 surface air temperature anomaly in Ukraine until 2050 will be +0.7, +2.1degrees Celsius compared with a baseline period 1981-2010. According to the scenario RCP8.5 increasing of temperature can be up to -2 degrees Celsius. Precipitation will be slightly increased in both scenarios.

SPI1 was examined for three timescales 12, 7 and 3 months, in order to cover droughts of different duration.

The SPI12 analysis for local points showed that at the RCP2.6 some significant dry periods will be observed in 2020's and 2040's, but at the RCP8.5 expected increasing the intensity and duration of drought episodes after 2035. The most severe drought is projected in 2042-2045.

The SPI7 analysis during vegetation season (April-October) showed that at the RCP2.6 total number of drought will be several larger than at the RCP8.5. The frequency of weak and moderate droughts at the RCP2.6 averaged to 12-14 cases per 31 years, according to the RCP8.5 is 10-12 cases. Severe and extreme droughts under both scenarios are expected in 1 to 4 years, but not everywhere.

Analysis of drought frequency in different seasons using SPI3 showed that during 2020-2050 expected a slight increasing the total number of drought and its redistribution within the warm season. The increasing of the number, summer-autumn droughts (August-October) and reducing of summer droughts (June-August) are projected, especially in mild scenario RCP2.6. The frequency of drought could reach up one per every 2-3 years across regions. Maximum number of droughts in all seasons predicted for the northeast and western regions of Ukraine, which in the present climate are not too arid. Contrariwise in the Steppe the total number of droughts almost not changes, but remains a high probability of severe and extreme drought.
Modelling the ice dynamics of Himalayan glaciers

S. Shannon (1) ; T. Payne (2) ; R. Betts (1) ; A. Wiltshire (3)
(1) University of Exeter, Geography, Exeter, United Kingdom;
(2) University of Bristol, Bristol glaciology centre, Bristol,
United Kingdom; (3) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United
Kingdom

In the Himalayan-Karakoram glacier melt contributes to the runoff of the Indus, Ganges and Ramaputra rivers affecting the livelihoods of more than 700 million people [1]. Future glacier melting is of particular concern for high-end climate change scenarios because of the potential impacts on water supply. Projections suggest that runoff may increase until 2050, due to enhanced glacier melting combined with an increase in monsoon precipitation [2, 3]. The uncertainty in these estimates are associated with an over simplified treatment of glaciers and a poor representation of monsoon precipitation.

To assess the impact of glacier retreat on food and water security in the region, we are implementing a 1-D glacier flow model [4] into the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) integrated impacts model. The purpose of the JULES impacts model is to allow for an integrated, internally-consistent assessment of impacts of climate change on glaciers, water resources and agriculture. The JULES impacts model is currently under development and includes a river routing scheme [5], an irrigation scheme and crop routing functions types[6].

In this presentation, we describe the initial stages of the model development. The glacier model requires two inputs: knowledge of the present day ice thickness and surface mass balance (SMB) as a function of elevation. Ice thickness is calculated using an inversion technique based on the principles of ice flow dynamics [7, 8]. This technique uses satellite observations of glacier outlines [9] combined with a digital elevation model. A time series of SMB generated by JULES is used to drive the glacier flow model offline. We show preliminary results of the glacier flow simulations in the Himalayan-Karakoram.

[1] Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2010) Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers. Science. 328(5984) 1382-1385.

[2] Immerzeel, W. W. P., F. Bierkens, M. F. P. (2013) Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glaciated watersheds. Nature Geoscience. 3 742-745.

[3] Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE. 4 587-592.

[4] Vieli, A. and Payne, A. J. (2005) Assessing the ability of numerical ice sheet models to simulate grounding line migration. Journal of Geophysical Research. 110(F01003).

[5] Oki, T. a. Y. C. S. (1998) Design of Total Runo Integrating Pathways (TRIP)-a global river channel network. Earth Interactions. 2 1-37.

[6] Osborne, T. G., J. Hooker, J. Williams, K. Wiltshire, A. Betts, R. Wheeler, T. (2014) JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 7(5).

[7] Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M. and Truffer, M. (2009) A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers. Journal of Glaciology. 55(191) 422-430.

[8] Huss, M. and Farinotti, D. (2012) Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe. Journal of Geophysical Research. 117 F04010.

[9] 2014. Randolph Glacier Inventory - A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 4.0. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Media, D., Boulder Colorado, USA.

Heat stress in a warming world: implications for human health and productivity under different climate scenarios

J. Syktus (1) ; C. Mcalpine (2)

(1) University fo Queensland, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, Brisbane, France; (2) University fo Queensland, School of geography, planningna nd environmental management, Brisbane, Australia

Projected changes in temperature and humidity over the course of the 21st Century will contribute to increased heat stress in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. Heat stress, arising from a combination of high temperature and humidity impacts on human health and wellbeing by causing illness and death, with the young and old the most vulnerable. Increased heat stress impacts workforce productivity, especially those engage in manual labour in open environments such as construction, mining and agriculture. These impacts will be of increasing concern during coming decades due to projected significant increases in the rate of warming and rapidly growing populations tropical and sub-tropical regions. We evaluated the impact of different emission scenarios on the heat stress conditions for the 21st Century in tropical and sub-tropical regions using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index. Projected changes in WBGT were used to assess the future impacts of heat stress by combining time-varying changes in heat stress and human population numbers. We found that people living in cities in coastal tropical regions and cities are highly vulnerable to changes in the number of heat stressdays, with these increasing in some instances from close to zero to two hundred days per year to 2100. West Africa, the Caribbean and the Indian sub-continent will be particularly hard hit. We show the benefits of mitigation by comparing the distribution of heat stress under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6.

Estimated impacts of emissions reductions on wheat and maize crops

C. Tebaldi (1) ; D. Lobell (2)

(1) NCAR, CGD, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (2) Stanford University, Department of environmental earth system science, Stanford, United States of America

An ability to quantify the impacts associated with different emissions scenarios across a broad range of economic and environmental outcomes would be helpful for guiding policy on energy and greenhouse gas emissions. One outcome of particular interest, especially for food insecure populations, are effects on agricultural productivity. In this study we use empirical models of the relation between climate and CO2 concentration on the one hand, and changes in crop yields on the other, to characterize the differential impacts on the future productivity of two major crops of two level of forcinings: those associated with RCP4.5 and those associated with RCP8.5. This study is part of a larger project on the Benefits of Reducing Anthropogenic Climate change (BRACE). We consider differential effects on maize and wheat yields at the global scale from expected changes in mean temperature and precipitation under the two scenarios. We also characterize differential levels of exposure to damaging heat extremes. Several time horizons are considered, characterizing expected impacts over the short, middle and long terms over the 21st century.

Evaluating the risk of hydrological drought to the irrigation sector under future climate scenarios: the case study of Puglia Region (Italy)

S. Torresan (1) ; P. Ronco (2) ; F. Zennaro (2) ; A. Critto (2) ; M. Santini (3) ; A. Trabucco (4) ; A. Marcomini (2)

(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Venice, Italy; (2) Ca' Foscari University, Dept. of environmental sciences, informatics and statistics, Venice, Italy; (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Viterbo, Italy;
(4) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Sassari, Italy

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, the raising drought events caused by climate change are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, also used for irrigation purposes. The increase of water resources and the equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. The present study aims at assessing the risk of hydrological droughts due to climate change on the irrigated agronomic compartment that cover a large portion of Puglia, a semi-arid region with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. Based on the theoretical framework of Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, the methodology is applied within a scenario-based hazard framework, where future climate projections provided by COSMO-CLM are considered under the radiative foray RCP8.5 and RCP8.5 in two different timeframes (2021–2050 and 2041–2070). The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important reservoirs for irrigation purpose in Puglia has been modelled by means of the Arc-SWAT model. The risk methodology followed four subsequent levels of analysis (i.e. hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risk assessments) where each step has been characterized by specific algorithms for their spatial and numerical quantification. Hazards scores have been defined as fulfillment of Recclamation Consortia irrigation demand when compared to the volume of available water supplied by the different reservoirs. Exposure assessment consists on the spatial characterization of the most valuable irrigated areas in Puglia Region, according to the specific crops that are cultivated. Vulnerability scores have been designed as function of three different factors that accounts for the agronomic and structural pattern of irrigation schemes (i.e. crop yield variation according to water stress; water losses along the irrigation network; diversification of water supplies other than the reservoirs) alone). Finally, relative risk maps (GIS based) and related statistics have been produced allowing the identification of hot spots and areas at risk as well as the spatial characterization of the risk pattern. The assessment allowed: the identification of Recclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their irrigation demand in future perspectives (e.g. Capitanata Recclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041–2070 scenario); to identify the most affected crops (e.g. fruit trees and vineyards); and finally, to characterize the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. According to these results, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk pattern at both agronomic level (preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

P-2204-14

The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe

L. Tsanis (1); L. Alfiери (2); A. Koutroulis (1); M. Grillakis (1); L. Papadimitriou (1); L. Feyen (2); M. Vousdoukas (2); E. Voukupalas (2); M. Rozsai (3); A. Kitous (3); P. Ciais (4); X. Wang (4); K. Wyser (5)

(1) Technical University of Crete, School of environmental engineering, Chania, Greece; (2) European Commission - DG JRC, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (3) European Commission - DG JRC, Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (4) LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (5) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Rossby centre, Norrköping, Sweden

The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2°C and target the 4°C to 6°C by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high-end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making. In the framework of High-

End Climate Impacts and extremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), Energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the new available Euro - CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4°C for impacts at regional scales. Results are assessed and compared to the available CMIP5 based projections included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) over Europe. Here, first results of the coordinated modelling effort are presented for the examined sectors.

P-2204-15

How does urbanization modify climate related risk in urban areas on global scale?

T. Welle, (1); J. Birkmann (1); M. Garschagen, (2)

(1) Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany

Climate change and urbanization are two global megatrends that will influence risk to climate change as well as adaptation opportunities and constraints. Sea-level rise, storms and floods as well as droughts will be modified by climate change and most likely impact particularly urban areas in coastal zones in the future as the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) underscored. Since 1950 the world population has grown rapidly from 746 millions to 3.9 billion. Hence, today more than 50% of the population is living in urban areas implying new challenges risk exposure tools will need to understand that risk and urban population growth estimate that by 2050 additional 2.5 billion people will live in urban areas whereas 90 percent of this increase will take place in Africa and Asia. Against this background and also considering the discussion of sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction there is an increasing need to assess whether future urbanization will increase risks related to climate change or in contrast whether urbanization might provide a vehicle for risk and vulnerability reduction regarding climate related hazards.

Consequently the question of how urbanization influences core determinants of risk, particularly vulnerability - either in a positive or negative way - has not yet been clearly answered. The paper examines the nexus between urbanization, urban growth and vulnerability, based on new global remote sensing based land-use data for 140 countries. In this regard, vulnerability is defined as a combination of susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities. The findings show among other issues that a high level of urbanization (>75%) and a low urban growth rate (<1%) at national scale in general implies a rather low level of urban vulnerability. In contrast, countries that are characterized by a low level of urbanization(<40%), but very high urban growth rates (more than 3%) often tend to be countries with a high level of vulnerability in urban areas. The paper presents in detail selected findings and methods used to assess urban vulnerability and risk patterns in various countries, also based on the WorldRiskIndex concept. The triangulation of different data, such as remote sensing data, hazard data and global available socio-economic indicators, is presented as well as constraints and limitations of it. Exposure, vulnerability and risk maps for urban areas with a national scale resolution will need to understand that risk and urbanization strategies need to consider different urbanization types in order to improve regional management approaches.

Overall, the presentation provides new insights in risk and vulnerability data and respective assessment methods for urban areas. Based on these findings specific recommendations for policy making and new risk monitoring tools will be derived that also consider priority actions defined in the fields of climate change adaptation (programme on loss and damage) and disaster risk reduction.
## Current structural changes in global economic network amplify heat stress-induced production losses

### L. Wenz (1) ; A. Levermann (2)

(1) Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, France

Above a certain temperature threshold labor productivity has been shown to decline in exposed sectors such as construction and agriculture. Under future warming daily temperature will increase and thereby affect economic output. Here, we assess primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic conditions under unabated climate change. Unsurprisingly, we find that relative damages increase linearly with rising temperatures.

Crucial for future adaptation strategies we observe that the structure of the global economic network plays an important role in absolute damage level. A new static network measure is found to represent the network's vulnerability to propagation of unanticipated damages well. This Global Adaptive Pressure (GAP) is shown to increase with the network's sensitivity to heat stress-induced damages.

From data of the global economic network we learn that the Global Adaptive Pressure has been steadily increasing since 1998 (with an exception for the post-financial crisis years 2009 and 2010). As GAP is a relative measure, this increase does not merely represent economic growth but a structural change.

Our finding suggests that the current evolution of the global economic network may amplify heat stress-induced damages and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than currently prevalent.

## Mapping of risk interconnection under climate change

T. Yokohata (1) ; K. Nishina (1) ; T. Kiyoshi (1) ; S. Emori (1) ; K. Tanaka (1) ; M. Kiguchi (2) ; Y. Iseri (3) ; Y. Honda (4) ; M. Okada (5) ; Y. Masaki (1) ; A. Yamamoto (6) ; M. Shigemitsu (7) ; M. Yoshimori (7) ; T. Sueyoshi (8) ; K. Iwase (9) ; N. Hanasaki (1) ; A. Ito (1) ; G. Sakurai (5) ; I. Toshichika (5) ; T. Oki (2)

(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; (4) University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; (5) National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; (6) University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; (7) Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; (8) National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan; (9) Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc. and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society).

First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm).

Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results will be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk

# 2205 - Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### Cross-sectoral analysis in IMPACT2C and IPCC AR5 Europe Chapter

#### D. Jacob (1)

(1) HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, needs to be informed by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits.

Here we'll provide a recent update of the scientific evidence on which regional changes and associated impacts will be induced by 2 °C global warming.

First, original insights and findings from the FP7 project IMPACT2C will be presented and discussed. IMPACT2C identifies and quantifies the impacts and most appropriate response strategies of a 2°C global warming. IMPACT2C analyses a number of major cross-sectoral issues for Europe and three selected vulnerable regions: Bangladesh,

Africa (Nile and Niger basins) and the Maldives

The IMPACT2C project adopts a clear and logical structure within climate- and impact-modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs. Detailed climate change scenarios are provided and tailored to the needs of various sectors. Here the information from the new EURO-CORDEX simulations will be presented. Furthermore, selected innovative methods (e.g. ensemble model selection which represent the entire ensemble's spread) and tools (e.g. web atlas) will be shown.

On the pan-European level this research is also linked to the Europe-Chapter from AR5, IPCC, which assesses evidence of climate change in a regional chapter and therefore could describe impacts across sectors and identify interactions between impacts. Regional information on climate, vulnerability and adaptation strategies are also major topics. The cross-sectoral decision making which is required to address climate change is reviewed in the Chapter. The main findings of the Europe chapter of WG II IPCC AR5 will be presented.
O-2205-01

# Projected changes in drought at 4C and 2C of global warming: Impact of mitigation on regional drought hotspots

J. Syktus (1) ; C. Mcalpine (1)

(1) University fo Queensland, School of geography, planning and environmental management, Brisbane, Australia

We use the CMIP5 data from historical and RCP8.5
changes in regional patterns of warming and precipitation
changes of 4C and 2C of global warming. Inter-model
agreement of projected changes in magnitude and sign of
annual and seasonal precipitation has been calculated to
illustrate the patterns of change in hydrological cycle. In
addition projected changes in precipitation have been used
to derive a meteorological drought using the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI).

Analysis of multi-model distribution of SPI during the 21st Century show progressive increase in frequency of wet events in high-to mid-latitudes and increased frequency of droughts over large parts of Australia, Africa, south-east Asia, southern Europe, the Middle East and Northern and Southern Americas. Using this data we identified a key hotspot with extreme drought (SPI<-2) and computed regional statistics of drought frequencies at 40C and 20C in order to illustrate the regional benefits of climate mitigation. In addition we have completed regional analysis of join distribution of precipitation and temperature changes at 40C and 20C using standardized precipitation and standardized temperature index. We will also show results of analysis focusing on hemispheric contrast in SPI drought distribution during the 21st Century.

O-2205-02

# Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

G. Xiao-Jun (1) ; L. Yong (1) ; H. Jian-Bin (1) ; Z. Zong (Ci)

(1) Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by twelve CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). In evaluating the ability of GCMs, a new fully observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the twelve GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.01 significant levels. Based on the projection data of twelve GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880) and the uncertainty of heat waves will increase dramatically to take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.82°C(2023), 2.48°C(2038), 3.23°C(2049), 3.93°C(2059), 4.59°C(2069), 5.29°C(2079) and 5.97°C(2088) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global warming targets, the difference between global and China's temperature rise increases gradually. The linear trends of regional mean heat waves number, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days over China are 0.9 times/°C, 2.7days/°C, 8.0 days/°C and 7.2days/°C with the enhancement of global warming targets. It is noteworthy that the increase rate of heat waves indices under the latter global warming target relative to the former one is expected

to decrease sharply as the global mean temperature rise
increases from 2.5°C to 3°C. For example, the increase
rates of longest heat waves duration under 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C,
3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets are 45.77
%, 37.37%, 22.91%, 27.51%, 16.60%, 24.55% and 25.64
%, in relation to that under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C,
4°C and 4.5°C target respectively. Moreover, the areas with
severe heat waves occurring display a vast expansion
correspondingly. For example, the percentage of area
with annual longest heat waves duration longer than 12
days will increase from 0.27% under a 2°C target to about
42.75% under a 5°C target. The percentage of area with
annual heat waves days more than 30 days will increase
from 0.45% under a 2°C target to about 49.64% under a
5°C target.

O-2205-03

# Impacts of a global 2 degrees C climate change upon European air quality

G. Lacressonnière (1) ; M. Engardt (2) ; M. Gauss (3) ; L. Watson (4) ; J. Andersson (5) ; J. Klemm (6) ; A. Colette (7) ; G. Fret (1) ; B. J. Marzec (4) ; A. Nyiri (3) ; G. Siour (1) ; S. Sobolowski (8) ; R. Vautard (9)

(1) IPSL/LISA, Crétail, France; (2) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; (3) EMÉP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway; (4) CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France; (5) SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden; (6) LISA, CNRS/INSU, Crétail, France; (7) INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (8) Uni Research, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; (9) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Several policy statements, including the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, stated that global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. In this context, the impacts of 2-degree increase in temperature have been analyzed in the European project IMPACT2C. The objective of the present study is to evaluate how these changes will have an impact on European air quality and will potentially affect human health using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. The first step was to perform air quality simulations for the current model, using two sets of meteorological forcings for each model; reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. The differences between the simulations allow to evaluate how global climate models modify climate hindcast by boundary conditions inputs. Among others, we analyze whether the chemical composition of PM is affected by the use of climate models. We then investigate the contributions of the changes in meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, boundary layer height, etc) on surface primary and secondary compounds of PM (Lacressonnière et al., under review). For the future scenarios, the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree C global warming, such as predicted from climate simulations using RCP4.5 scenario, was run; this time period varies depending on which global climate model is used. We separately calculate the effects of climate change and emission reduction scenarios, and show that the fate of European air pollution is primarily controlled by emission reductions. A 2-degree C global warming will not hinder beneficial effects of air quality legislation, albeit inducing small changes in ozone and particulate matter changes. We then evaluate the uncertainty associated to the air quality projection under regional climate change, with a focus on annual PM2.5 and SOMO35, two indicators, commonly used for health assessments (Lacressonnière et al., under preparation). We assess the robustness/ uncertainty of model predictions, by comparing the inter-model spread to the climate change signals. Our results highlight that the inter-model variability is mainly due to differences in regional climate projections, affecting several meteorological parameters, which are crucial for air quality. Beyond the model uncertainty, climate penalty or benefit have been made evident over different European areas. The use of four different models, and additional uncertainty evaluations, make our study one of the most comprehensive ones up to date to assess the impact of regional climate change on air quality and health.
Studying the climate change impact at 2 degree warming on Water Resources for the island of Crete: A cross-sectoral approach

I. Tsanis (1); A. Koutroulis (2); M. Grillakis (2)

(1) McMaster University, Civil Engineering, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; (2) Technical University of Crete, School of environmental engineering, Chania, Greece

Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2°C global warming relative to preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3°C indicating that impacts of climate change will fail disproportionately on certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continual gradual warming leading to a progressive decline in the average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 30-50% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. Crete, the fifth largest Mediterranean island covers more than 6% of Greece with an area over 8,000 square km. Total water use is estimated to be about 420 million cubic meters (6.3% of total precipitation). The majority of the water use (over 80%) is used for irrigation while the rest is distributed to other uses such as domestic, tourist, and industrial uses. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the ENSEMBLES and EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, A1B and RCP8.5 GCMs were used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2 degrees warming and above. A generalized framework of a cross-sectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources. Adaptation to water scarcity includes a group of measures ranging from soft measures to infrastructure investments for achieving safe and secure water futures.

2205-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2205-01

Carbon Sink in the Timbered Biomass for Mountainous Tropical Wildlife Reserve using Geospatial Approach

K. Amit (1) ; T. Vandana (2)

(1) Haryana Institute of Public Administration, remote sensing, gurgaon, India; (2) Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Remote sensing, Gurgaon, India

Carbon storage and biomass sequestration are the two important terms that come across when it is talked about our forest or plant ecosystem. It has been found that very little research had been conducted on the potential of carbon storage in trees of the region having low rainfall. Here Remote Sensing can play a vital and useful role by its fast usage in the field. It is quick, accurate, cost-effective as well as a time effective method for vegetation cover mapping and modeling. In this study the objective was to quantify the above ground biomass accumulation and carbon storages in the various species found in Ranthambore Tiger Reserve. For this purpose the satellite data of LISS III (2014) is used giving precise information of vegetation through reflectance value. For assessing the carbon sequestration potential of plantations, individual above ground biomass models were developed and scaled to stand level. Thereafter the carbon

content of the different layer of soil was assessed in sample plots. The result shows that the total amount of carbon stored in By Anogeissus pendula is higher than that stored by the other three forest type. The result also showed that the carbon storage is higher in thorn as compared to the deciduous trees in the region of low rainfall.

P-2205-02

The 2°C global warming threshold and associated hydrological changes over France

G. Dayon (1) ; J. Boé (1) ; E. Martin (2)

(1) URA1875, Cerfacs/CNRS, TOULOUSE, France; (2) Météo France, Cnrm-game, Toulouse, France

The Copenhagen Agreement states that the global temperature should increase less than 2°C to prevent dangerous changes on the climate system. The 2°C threshold offer to climate scientists an easy way to communicate and present their results close to policy decisions and meaningful for the public. However, it hides strong differences and uncertainties at a regional scale. This study focuses on impacts of the 2°C level and above on the continental hydrological cycle over France.

An ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) is downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). Atmospheric variables obtained on a 8 km grid over France are used to drive the Isba-Modcou hydrological system developed at Météo France and Mines Paris-Tech. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and surface water budgets. Modcou is a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba and computes aquifers and river flow evolution.

Future impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the main French rivers basins are evaluated as a function of global temperature warming. The respective importance of uncertainties from the internal climate variability and climate models is addressed thanks to large ensemble of simulations used in the study. Hydrological changes are also compared among the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP, mainly RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to ensure the independence of results to emission scenarios.

Finally, based on a large ensemble of simulations on the historical period (28) and long-term river flow observations, future hydrological changes are put into perspective with past hydrological variability. Those elements will might allow to reach a conclusion on the meaning of the 2°C global warming threshold for hydrological changes over France.

References :

Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France, Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmosphere.

P-2205-03

Climate change will impact carbon balance of old-growth temperate rainforests of southern South America

AG. Gutierrez (1)

(1) Universidad Austral de Chile, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Valdivia, Chile

Understanding how forests might respond to climate change is important because of their role in storing and sequestering carbon, sustaining biodiversity, and providing ecosystem goods and services. There is a growing body of evidence indicating that ecological effects of climate change on forests are apparent and may vary among regions of the world. Little is known about future changes that climate change could exert on temperate rainforests of southern South America (SSA). Here, I present results of a process-based, dynamic forest model. The model integrates climatic variability and allows projecting forest responses to climate change in this region. Using the developed model, I projected potential futures for temperate rainforests of SSA given likely climate change scenarios. I focused on primary, old-growth temperate rainforests of SSA located on Chiloé Island (-42°S, Chile). Drier climate predicted for this century will alter forest
structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value. Compared to current climate, mean net primary production will be reduced in ~30% for year 2100 (from 7.6 to 2.4 tC ha^-1 year). As a result of warming alone, i.e. without accounting for the direct effects of carbon dioxide, temperature rainforests in SSA will become sources of carbon during this century (average among forest stands of ~3.7 tonnes of carbon -tC- ha^-1 year in 2100). These results inform the debate about forests responses to future climate in SSA. Future research should focus in developing experimental and long-term monitoring still not available in this region. In the meantime, models provide a useful synthesis of current knowledge that allows exploring these and other additional effects of global change on hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests

P-2205-04

## Seepage Processes in Permafrost near a Hydro Unit in a Changing Climate

S. Milanovskiy (1) ; S. Velikin (2)

(1) Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia; (2) Vilyui Permafrost Station of the Permafrost Institute, Ras siberian branch, Chernihivski, Russia

Regular water and energy supply in permafrost areas are vitally important conditions for inhabitants of the large North territories of Russia, Canada, US and Alpine areas of China. Dam and flank shore stability is the key point for safety of reservoir (pool, power plant, water supply, tailing pit, etc.). In permafrost areas stability of many engineering structures including hydraulic work, associated with thawing - freezing process. Emergency situation of the unit we have when seepage occurs in originated permeable talik zone adjoining to reservoir. We present original results of long-term geophysical study on hydro technical objects of Western Yakutia analyzing problems associated with use of geophysical methods for the study of rocks in permafrost area. The primal problems of studies were focused to ) i) eliciting and checking of a position of talik zones and places of filtering of water in a body of foundation and coastal contiguity of Sytikan dam and Vilui HPS (constructing and operating reservoirs) dams; ii) estimation of dynamics of seepage progressing processes for a development of a complex of measures, directional on exception of losses of water from reservoir and supply of stability of a body of a dam. Due to a difficulty and hardly predictable geochronological situation in the area, this study is included into the system of local monitoring. From ground-level methods of studies in composition of operations were included high frequency electric profiling, electric profiling on a method of a natural field, georadar, seismic profiling and seismic sounding. Down-hole observations on dams included long-term regime temperature measurements and complex of logging studies (resistance, flow meter survey, gamma logging, neutron gamma logging, caliper measurement, radio wave cross-borehole testing). On the ground of geophysical studies the detailed geological section was studied and the binding of seepage spacing to definite lithologic horizons was established. The purpose of geophysical investigations was, first, to control the thawing of frozen rock (talik) within the coastal zone of the reservoir and to assess the dynamics of the process, and second, to identify and to locate places of the most intensive thawing and temperature elevation from the reservoir. Alongside field studies, numerical evaluation of permeable talik zone (thawing) origination and development in a broad zone around a dam was made. The non-steady problem of heat-mass transfer in fractured-porous saturated frozen water media, interbedded in frozen impermeable strata is discussed. The model takes into consideration the main conditions causing initiation and development of talik near a reservoir: annual temperature and snow cover variation, annual water temperature elevation with depth in the storage basin adjacent to the dam and evolution of permeability in rock due to thaw-freeze processes. The results of 2D heat-mass transfer modeling indicate that the development of talik formation depends on the specific thermal and hydraulic material parameters, thickness of the frozen layer covering talik and winter snow blanket insulating ground rocks, seasonal and global temperature trend as well as of presence of fractures in frozen rocks. It seems that proposed model can be used to analyze situations like rapid drainage of ice-rich permafrost-dammed lakes, Alpine frozen slope instability as well as the role of global temperature change influence on a system "ice-rich permafrost-aquifer".

P-2205-05

## The Challenges of Communicating Unwieldy Climate Messages

T. Rayner (1)

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom

As a recent report on communication of climate science has noted, "[t]here is widespread public acceptance of the reality of climate change, but not of the urgency and scale of the challenges that the science indicates it represents" (UCL 2014: 14). This discrepancy, the report suggests, derives from psychological factors and from cues from influential elites and the media. Communication efforts based on the linear-rational model have failed sufficiently to motivate either publics or political decision makers. Better engagement of policymakers and society more generally with climate scientists and other experts, to evaluate scientific evidence and determine adaptive responses, requires new narratives to be found. With the probability that global temperature rise can be kept below the 20C target continuing to diminish, the urgency of this task increases. How best to engage individual citizens and organisations with the kind of knowledge about the likelihood and implications of severe future impacts that few want to hear becomes an acute issue. How can adaptive responses be encouraged by individuals, organisations and policymakers – rather than denial, fatalism and withdrawal?

This paper presents the findings of a workshop organised to bring together climate scientists, social scientists, policymakers, consultants, communications specialists, psychologists, the private sector, the media and artists etc., to wrestle with the challenges of communicating findings from research into high impact scenarios, in a world where the 2 degrees limit is increasingly in doubt. As well as 'the public', the paper considers how best to engage with other audiences, including infrastructure planners who may not yet be in the habit of 'climate proofing' particular investments, and politicians and policy makers who would prefer to ignore the full, transformative implications of the climate crisis. It also reflects on the need to move discussion beyond the narrow framings offered by the geosciences, which tend to provide legitimacy and credibility to catastrophic framings that reinforces the message of climate change as 'an unfolding, almost predetermined, disaster' (O'Neill et al. 2010: 1000), to incorporate insights from a wider set of disciplines.

O'Neill, S.J., Hulme, M., Turnpenny, J. and Screen, J. (2010), "Disciplines, geography and gender in the framing of climate change", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, pp. 997-1002.

UCL (2014). Time for Change? Climate Science Reconsidered. The Report of the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science.

P-2205-06

## How significant is the climate impact of Black Carbon?

BH. Samset (1); G. Myhyre (2); O. Hodnebrog, (2)

(1) CICERO, Climate System, Oslo, Norway; (2) CICERO, Oslo, Norway

Mitigation of Black Carbon (BC) aerosol emissions is an attractive policy option, due to co-benefits on climate and air quality. However the climate impact of present day BC emissions is not well constrained.

BC interacts with the climate directly, through absorption and scattering of incoming sunlight; indirectly, through modification of cloud properties; and semidirectly, through changes to atmospheric stability. To gauge the net effect of BC, these processes need to be well understood and coherently treated. Regional emissions of BC, and how it ages and is transported in the atmosphere, must also be known.

Since the publication of the IPCC AR5, several studies have indicated that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in present climate models. Through comparisons of flight measurement data with model calculations, both geographically and vertically, we show how models tend to overestimate BC concentrations
alof, where it has the strongest direct radiative forcing efficiency.

Other studies have improved our understanding of the semidirect effect of BC, which tends to counterbalance the positive BC direct radiative forcing. We show the vertical dependence of direct, semidirect and net BC forcing efficiency, and illustrate how the interaction of the direct and semidirect effects can lead to a virtually unchanged net BC forcing even for a doubling of emissions.

Based on these recent results, we here present an updated, holistic view of the present and historical climate impact of BC. We present policy relevant values of BC impact metrics, i.e. its radiative forcing per gram of emission, constrained by recent observations. We also argue that while further work is needed to constrain all mechanisms of BC-climate interactions, present emission inventories remain a dominating source of uncertainty in BC climate forcing.

In conclusion, we argue that the climate impact of BC may be lower than has been assumed in recent assessments. While its impact on air quality is clear, this makes BC less attractive for use in climate mitigation policy.

### P-2205-07

## Water Quality Index for the Evaluation of Irrigation Water Quality and its Impact on Climate using MODIS Sensors' Based MOD13A1-NDVI Data

K. Swati (1); P. Kumar, (2)

(1) Banasthali University, Remote Sensing, Tonk, India; (2)

Banasthali University, Remote sensing, jaipur, India

Ground water quality has reflective outcome on crop yield potential in semi-ard zones. Water can be poor quality due to salinity it contains as impurities present. Excessive salinity of irrigation water leads to interdiction of crop growth while smaller concentration of salt abates the water infiltration process. Water quality index has an ultimate goal for obtaining maximum production per unit of available water supply along with significance for remedy of domestic, industrial and irrigation water supply. Natural water body's response environmental conditions which have been studied by scientists for identify sources and fates of contaminants. Water Quality Index Center provides electronic access to information on water quality and agriculture. The most important water quality directive on crop yield efficiency is the water salinity hazard as measured by electrical conductivity (ECw). The high ECw generally leads to physiological drought. The higher the EC, the less water is available to plants, even though the soil may appear wet. Geospatial technology plays a vital role in geospatial data acquisition of the water quality index at local, regional, and global scale. The advantage of Remote Sensing and GIS is that it helps in getting wide area observation, periodical and continuous measurement, and availability of digital data for processing standardization. This research paper focuses to assess the water quality for irrigation practices. The data of MOD13A1-NDVI (A Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer derived 16 day composite normalized difference vegetation index product, with spatial resolution of 500 m). (September 2013) was used in GIS frame. Geospatial technology helps in getting spatial distribution of chemical parameters using inverse-distance weighted and modified Shepard's method for spatial interpolation. This research paper illustrate statistical multiplication of water quality in terms of suitability index using pH, total dissolve solid, total hardness, alkalinity, sodium, chloride, nitrate, electric conductivity, and express the impact of water quality on regional crop yield. Higher water quality index depicts the best appropriateness for irrigation practices. In order to strengthen the crop productivity, we have suggested the diversified triple-based cropping systems with mountable mounted sensor derived NDVI products shown in Figure 1 as a holistic and feasible monitoring approach.

### P-2205-08

## The Effect of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Ekiti and Ondo States of Nigeria: A Co-Integration Analysis

O. Thompson (1)

(1) The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Akure, Ondo,

Nigeria, Federal Republic of

The study examined whether or not there is short run and long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and Humidity). This is to ascertain the effect of climate change on cocoa output both in the short run and long run in the study area. The short run was considered to be within the period of 1990-2010. While the long run was considered to be within the period of 1971-2010. It was established at the long run that cocoa output and rainfall were non-stationary among the three selected climate change determinants (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run, both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa:-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall:-1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test revealed that at both 1% and 5% level of significance 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated. The Max-Eigen values also revealed that at both 1% and 5% levels of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values 25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63.. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and rainfall. The result established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution in the study area. Therefore, the study recommended that drought management policy through information systems about changing climate conditions and patterns, preparatory practices and options to deal with eventuality of drought must be set in place. The study examined whether not there is short run and long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run, both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa:-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall:-1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test revealed that at both 1% and 5% levels of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values 25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63.. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and rainfall. The results established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution in the study area. Therefore, the study recommended that drought management policy through information systems about changing climate conditions and patterns, preparatory practices and options to deal with eventuality of drought must be set in place.

### P-2205-09

## An integrated approach for assessing climate change impacts on the European electricity sector

I. Tobin, (1); F. Breon (1); W. Greuwill (2); S. Jerez (3) ; F. Ludwig (2); F. Pretenthaler (4); M. Van Vliet (2); R. Vautard (1)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (2) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) University of Murcia, Department of physics, Murcia, Spain; (4) University of Graz, Joanneum research, Graz, Austria

Due to the development of new technologies and the necessity for reducing greenhouse gases emissions, the electricity sector is expected to hold a large share in the future energy activity sector. However, this sector is vulnerable to changes in climate in several aspects both on the supply and demand sides, which may affect the supply-demand balance. On the supply side, wind power generation could be affected by changes in surface layer
wind speed, solar power by changes in solar irradiance and temperature, alteration of the hydrological cycle with temperature increase could impact both the potential for hydropower and the availability of cooling water for thermo-electric power plants. On the demand side, temperature increase will reduce electricity demands for heating while the use of air-conditioning is expected to increase. This study aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the European electricity sector and to assess the changes in climate variables on wind and solar photovoltaic power, thermo-electric and hydropower supply along with the effects on electricity demand. Climate information is taken from a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections (CORDEX) over Europe. Impact models are then used to compute changes in power generation and demand due to changes in climate variables. Several electricity mixes are considered (current mix, contrasted mix scenarios). The assessment is conducted for a +2°C and a +3°C global warming to quantify the impact of climate change limited or not to the +2°C target.

This study has been carried out in the framework of the
European FP7 project IMPACT2C.

P-2205-10

Space-time distribution of China's water resources under the global climate change

H. Xia (1)

(1) East China Normal University, School of geographic sciences, Shanghai, China

The water resource is the basic proposition of agricultural and industrial development in China because of our big population. It is noteworthy that what climate change will effect on Chinese future water resource. The influence of climate change includes precipitation and evaporation, of which the former is more discussed and the latter is readily ignored. This article is based on the regional climate model (RegCM4) which is developed by NCAR/ PSU (National Center of Atmospheric Research/University of Pennsylvania). We made a simulation to estimate the future climate change in China with A1B scenario. And got the spatial distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in historical period (1981-2000 average annual value) and future period(2041-2060 average annual value). The P-M evapotranspiration model recommended by the FAO is used to calculate the evaporation. And the mean degree is used as the index of water resources. In general, the results showed that water resources in China present latitude zonal distribution, gradually reduce form south to north. From the trend of the change, the water resources in the south of Yangtze river will decrease in the future, on the other hand, in the north of Yangtze river , especially in the north of the Huai-he river , the water resources condition will get better. The most obvious regions for the growth of water resources include the western of northeast China Huai-he river basin, Si-chuan province and the south of Tibetan autonomous region.

P-2205-11

Better Representation of Climate Change
Impacts from Multi-model Ensembles

J. Zaherpour (1); S. Gosling (2); N. Mount, (1); R. Dankers, (3); Y. Masaki (4); I. Haddeland (5); T. Stacke, (6); J. Heinke, (7); E. Eisner, (8); M. Flörke, (8); B. Feketev, (9); Y. Wadai, (10); L. Warszawski (7); J. Schewe, (11); K. Frieler, (7); F. Piontek, (7); V. Huber, (7)

(1) University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom;

(2) University of Nottingham, School of Geography, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan; (5) Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway; (6) Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; (7) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (8) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; (9) Civil Engineering Department, The City College of New York, New York, United States of America; (10) Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (11) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

We present an innovative application of intelligent computing that constrains simulations of river discharge from an ensemble of multiple global hydrological models (GHMs) against observations for 110 large catchments across the globe to provide a single estimate of discharge that is both more robust and better informed than more traditional, simplistic techniques such as the ensemble mean. The approach uses evolutionary algorithms (EAs) through symbolic regression (SR) to develop catchment-specific multi-model combination (MMC) solutions that combine simulated discharge values from seven GHMs participating in ISI-MPI. (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). The MMC algorithms are optimised by evaluating individual models (GHMs) performance against observations and then weighting and/or discounting GHMs accordingly in the MMC. In addition, the performance of the ensemble mean in simulating the observations is explored. A numerical integrated metric, ideal point error (IPE) with the privilege of assessing different behavioural aspects of the models simultaneously, is used to measure the performance of GHMs, MMC technique and ensemble mean approaches. Comparisons between simulated and observed discharge show that optimised MMC algorithms can outperform the simulations of discharge from the best performing GHMs by reducing simulation error up to a magnitude of 30%. The MMC technique also outperforms the ensemble mean method in virtually all of the 110 catchments. Our analyses demonstrates the value of evaluating climate change impact model performance and using the results to provide indicators of hydrological change from multi-model ensembles that are more informative than traditional ensemble averaging techniques.

2206 - The World in 2050 – What does it look like and how
do we get

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2206-01

The Sustainable Development Pathway

J. Sachs (1)

(1) Columbia University, Earth institute, New York, United States of America

The world has several partial pathways towards sustainable development that cover specific areas, such as agriculture or climate change. Yet, we do not have an integrated pathway that demonstrates how the economic, social, and environmental imperatives of sustainable development can be achieved in harmony with one another. Such a pathway would inter alia have to stay within global "planetary boundaries", allow all countries to meet national development objectives, and maintain social inclusion.

Moreover, a global pathway will need to be downscaled
to major regions and demonstrate that every region can
achieve sustainable development.

Working with my collaborators on "The World in 2050"
we will partner with major modeling organizations to
establish an integrated sustainable development pathway.
We will use the Sustainable Development Goals proposed
by member states of the United Nations as a shorthand
form of objectives for sustainable development.

This presentation will focus on the economics of
sustainable development. A key research question is how
dist- to longer-term economic models can incorporate
the SDGs. This will be illustrated using a few examples from
the emerging research.
One of the most pressing issues facing the global community post 2015 is how to realize the benefits of future global economic development within a safe and just operating space of a stable planet.

The World in 2050 Project will explore the implications of the necessary transformative sustainable development pathways and the possible 'degrees of freedom' to meet economic development goals within a safe operating space of a stable planet.

The project will generate the 1st generation of global scenarios that meet the twin objectives of economic growth and planetary stability and thus provide improved evidence, including macro-economic assessments, to political leaders in the SDG process, and other key decision makers, on the feasibility, challenges and opportunities associated with meeting long-term development goals, i.e., development goals that are truly sustainable at a global scale.

Beyond Paris to 2050 and thereafter - multiple benefits of a global transformation toward sustainable futures

An objective of the World in 2050 Initiative is to explore the transformative development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries. The presentation will focus on the main drivers of the transformation, their relationships including some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their targets, on policy measures, and on technological and social changes that would be needed for achieving the transformation toward the "safe and just space" that characterizes sustainable futures.

An important research question is how high are the degrees of freedom in achieving this transformation, what are the prerequisites and implications. In other words, are there multiple transformative pathways especially at regional levels. For example, Global Energy Assessment (GEA) developed 41 transformative energy pathways toward sustainable energy futures that included universal access to energy services for all, improvements in energy efficiency and decarbonization needed to stabilize climate change at two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Energy is one of the SDGs, but the challenge is to assess to what extent different SDGs, such as energy and water, can enhance each other and to what extent tradeoffs will

be required in achieving different SDGs.

Finally, the presentation will conclude by assessing multiple benefits and opportunities that would emerge from the transformative changes toward sustainable futures. A key question to explore is the potential for achieving co-benefits and/or trade-offs of addressing multiple SDGs at the same time, which can provide critical information for policy and investment decisions, their synergies and possible conflicts among them.

The World in 2050 – the contribution of model-based scenarios

In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term agenda of action by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These SDGs will be agreed upon in 2015. Studies that depict pathways that relate near-term actions and a long-term vision could help implement the SDGs by 1) providing a link between the 2030 SDG targets and an inspirational vision about a sustainable world in 2050 to a medium-term set of sustainable development goals (say by 2025 or 2030), 2) exploring what efforts would be needed to realize the goals and 3) providing information on the inter-linkages (synergies and trade-offs) between the achievement of the goals.

Integrated assessment models have been used extensively in the last few years to develop model-based scenarios to depict possible future trajectories with respect to human development and environmental consequences. They have also been used to develop scenarios that achieve certain future goals (e.g. the 20C climate target). Most of these studies have looked into specific topics, but there has also been studies that took a broader set of goals comprising both environment and development targets such as the Global Energy Assessment, the Global Environmental Outlook and the study "Roads from Rio+20". Overall, these studies have shown it is possible to achieve an ambitious set of sustainable development targets simultaneously. However, this will require fundamental changes in the energy and food system. There are also important synergies and trade-offs between different objectives that depend on the specific strategy that is used to achieve them (e.g. specific technologies, different types of management and the role of lifestyle changes).

In the proposed presentation, we will discuss how integrated assessment models can provide further insights into the question how to achieve a set of sustainable development objectives (including the SDGs) in the 2030 / 2050 period, among others by using specific examples from existing studies. We will also discuss how the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) can be used within the context of such an exercise.

2207 - Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming and acidification on natural and human systems

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Ecological challenges for life in a rapidly changing ocean

Ocean warming and acidification share the same primary cause, which is the increase in atmospheric CO2. The fossil record indicates that the rate and magnitude of the present, human-generated carbon perturbation leads to changes potentially unparalleled in the last 300 My of Earth history. Ocean warming and acidification are two key global environmental drivers that challenge marine organisms and ecosystems. Responses can be influenced, often exacerbated by other drivers, such as hypoxia, eutrophication, habitat loss and overexploitation of resources.

A large range of approaches are used to assess the present impacts and project future risks: paleo-observations,