learning can be associated with rigidity of established risk management strategies, rather than with their change. In the context of heatwave planning in London, missed opportunities for paradigm shifts concerned a consolidation of reactive risk management approaches that focused on the health implications of heat stress. This consolidation undermined the development of preventive risk management approaches that consider social, environmental and technical risk dimensions. The results of the analysis raise questions about the desirability of learning as an adaptive strategy in the context of climate change. The presentation suggests that learning is not necessarily beneficial for transformation if it is enacted through organisational systems that are inertial and resistant to change.

P-3312-02

## Climate Smart Practices for Resilience and Sustainable Productivity: Sudan's NAPA Case Studies

IE. Ali Babiker (1) ; F. El-Hag, (2)

(1) Agricultural Research Corporation, Dry Lands Research Center, Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan; (2) Agricultural Research Corporation, Dry Lands research center, Khartoum, Sudan

This study aimed at documenting climate smart practices implemented by NAPA at four States (River Nile, Gedärif, North Kordofan and Darfur) in Sudan. This documentation was done through reviewing the progress attained regarding the adaptive measures undertaken to enhance the resilience of the targeted communities. Climate smart practices identified include: Sand dunes fixation, forestry and rangelands rehabilitation, micro-fences in rangelands, water harvesting, chisel ploughing, groundwater harvesting for establishment of community managed horticulture gardens, energy substitutes, and livestock improvement activities. Areas rehabilitated on open sand dunes with range plants and tree seeds and seedlings were over 600 ha, clay soils areas covered with agroforestry, windbreaks and rangeland rehabilitation were 105.0, 21.0 and 84 ha, respectively. Rainwater harvesting structures were constructed to improve trees and rangelands rehabilitation. Shelterbelt was established covering an area of 300 ha. Range plants seeds were, also, broadcasted inside fenced areas. This was done through communities' participation, particularly women. Rainwater harvesting technologies enables farmers to break out of the cycle of poverty through increased crop yield, enhancing their adaptive capacity through improved food security and livelihoods. Improved water harvesting practice resulted in an increased sorghum yield over 477%. Earth bund water harvesting + chisel ploughing gave an increase in sorghum yield of over 177%. Cucumber, sorghum and okra, cultivated under the improved water harvesting technique accrued a profit of over $1000. The intervention of groundwater harvesting, which involved 199 women and using solar energy operated pumps, provided a good viable practice for enhancing community adaptation to climate change through food security and income generation. Over $2500 were stated to be the revenue from the different activities of the horticultural garden due to groundwater harvesting. Cylinders and stove units were distributed relieved pressure off the fragile natural resources through provision of alternatives to tree cutting for charcoal making and for firewood collection, hence reversing resource and land degradation. Sheep and goat improvement program activities, using local breeds conducted were good practices in increasing adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities' through income generation. Improving the nutrient value of Adar grasses and crop residues helped improving livestock feed balance in these areas in view of the deteriorated rangelands, particularly during the dry season. The study revealed several success stories and learning lessons.

P-3312-03

## Climate change adaptation of community-based drinking water organizations: challenges and solutions

F. Alpizar (1) ; R. Madrigal, (1)

(1) CATIE, Economics and Environment for Development Program, Cartago, Costa Rica

Due to climate change and variability, drought events are

expected to be more intense and prolonged in different areas of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), with significant impacts in the volume, timing, and quality of water provided by water suppliers (Kundzewicz et al. 2008). Community-based drinking water organizations (CBDWO) are the most important providers of water in rural areas of LAC and play a key role in decentralization and democratization processes in the region. The inherent capacities of CBDWO to adapt to expected impacts of droughts would be much conditioned by their capacities to initiate and catalyze collective processes in the communities they represent.

The rich background of actual and historical responses that CBDWO have given to drought phenomena is an essential starting point for understanding both processes and limitations to adapt to future adverse climatic events. The complex nature of collective adaptation processes involves the identification and analysis of relationships among different actors in the communities, the governance structure in which they interact, the physical and natural resource base on which they depend and the social, economic, demographic and political setting in which they reside.

Around 1500 CBDWO provide water to 60% of people in the driest rural areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. We randomly selected a sample of 130 CBDWO in these two countries to collect information, through interviews to CBDWO leaders and surveys to water customers, on governance and financial characteristics, performance indicators (e.g. hours of water service), technical features of the existing infrastructure as well as adaptation investments from these water providers, among other relevant indicators. This information helped us to identify empirically the factors that influence performance of CBDWO in the context of droughts; enumerate the adaptation measures implemented by CBDWO to deal with these disturbances and acknowledge the specific challenges and facilitating conditions for the implementation of these measures and for building drought preparedness.

We found that CBDWO implement different hard (e.g infrastructure improvement), soft (e.g. rationing) and ecosystem based (e.g. protection of recharge areas) adaptation measures to deal with droughts and water scarcity in general. One of the main factors that facilitate capital intensive adaptation measures (e.g infrastructure measures such as water metering systems at home, storage capacity augmentation) is the ability of CBDWO to mobilize internal and external financial resources, which further increases external capital (internal and external networks) and the governance structure. In particular, some conditions seem to be necessary for adapting to driest scenarios: water fees for recovering costs and incentivizing rational consumption; external mechanisms for financing water investments; legitimate, transparent and functional governance structures at the local level; and technical expertise complementing local knowledge.

Our results suggest that in most cases external support is critical for climate change adaptation of CBDWO. This has important implications for adaptation policy design and the role for development assistance in supporting adaptive capacity. In this regard we propose a long-term integral approach minimizing the incentives to perpetuate external dependency on limited governmental funds and international donors for maintenance, replacement and expansion of water infrastructure and investment in climate change preparedness. To date, such a strategy should promote the long-term financial sustainability of CBDWO through improved mechanisms for cost-recovery, accessible financial options (e.g. through public-private banking partnerships) and conditioned subsidies under critical circumstances. These efforts should be accompanied by reachable opportunities for training in administrative and technical aspects of water management. Finally, the availability of more precise and updated information on how climate change would affect local water systems is an important pillar in this approach.

P-3312-04

## The Mid- and Late Holocene Climate Changes in the Amuq Plain: The Adaptive Responses to Climate Change as Indicated by Archaeological Data

B. Arikan (1)

(1) Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical
Paleoenvironmental research has shown that significant climatic changes happened during the mid- and late Holocene yet it is hard to generalize changes in crucial climatic variables across the Near East. The Amuq Plain is located at the northern terminus of the Jordan Rift Valley. The region has been recognized as a hot spot for biodiversity in the modern era (ancient Antioch, the Turkish city of Hatay). The Plain has been densely settled and its resources have been used intensively in the last 10,000 years, which has become a hub for social interactions. Consequently, the Amuq Plain has a lot to offer in studying the dynamic and multifaceted history of human-environment relationships, especially the adaptive responses to climatic changes in the Holocene. Although untangling such relationships in time is essential, given the complexity of the geology of the Plain (i.e., tectonics, fluvial, and colluvial processes), spatial dimension becomes equally important. Contextualizing the range of human adaptive behavior in the Plain, across space and time, requires analyzing diverse sets of data. In addition to archaeological, economic, social, historical, and political data, environmental data are also needed to have a more accurate and complete reconstruction of adaptive patterns.

My talk will focus on correlating the results of the Macrophysical Climate Model with the long-term archaeological settlement systems on the Plain, which have been documented through traditional survey methods as well as remote sensing, gearchaeology, and paleoenvironmental research. Macrophysical Climate Model (MCM) is one of few paleoclimatic-modeling tools that have been available to researchers. In comparison to other paleoclimatic models, MCM has higher spatial rescaling and the results are synoptic (i.e., local). Research in different parts of the Near East suggests that the results of MCM agree well with the results from multi-polytime based paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The model output provides quantifiable figures at centennial resolution.

In my talk, first, I will present the output from MCM that provides average annual precipitation and temperature between 12,000 and 2,000 cal. BP (ca. 10,000 B.C. - 0). Calculating annual averages at centennial resolution, changes in precipitation and temperature will be plotted. Then, I will interpret the possible impacts of climate change on the settlement systems of the Amuq Plain at spatial and temporal scales. In this comparison, the size, function, preference of land formation, and distance to the nearest water source will be analyzed using geographical information systems (GIS).

P-3312-05

## Climate Change Adaptation and Household Resilience to Shocks in Ethiopia

### E. Basauri Bryan (1)

(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America

Rural households in Ethiopia that depend on agriculture for their livelihood are highly susceptible to climate variability and change. A number of adaptation strategies have been identified as having great potential to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change and many of these practices have already been adopted by agricultural households. However, few studies have assessed the extent to which particular practices actually increase resilience to climate shocks, which are becoming more frequent with climate change. This paper assesses the effectiveness of key adaptation strategies in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia by examining the extent to which adoption of these practices protects household assets following a climate shock, drawing on data collected through two rounds of a survey of 1,000 agricultural households in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

P-3312-06

## Assessing adaptation on the ground: a proposed framework to measure adaptive capacity

### MA. Baudoin (1); G. Ziervogel (2)

(1) Climate and Development initiative, geology, cape Town, South Africa; (2) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South

Methods for evaluating adaptation projects are a growing concern, in both the applied and academic spheres of climate change adaptation (CCA). Internationally, there is increased funding for supporting adaptation projects, yet limited exploration of how this international funding is landing on the ground and impacting on adaptation. The key objective of our research is to provide a better understanding of how external funding in developing countries is contributing to building adaptive capacity and implementing CCA. The core research question that guides the study is: what is the role of international funding in building adaptive capacities across scales and, especially, on the ground? This question will be addressed with a specific focus on how international funding enables or undermines adaptive capacities among local institutions (both governmental and non-governmental).

The initial phase of the study is based on a review of existing literature exploring to role of international development funding on building generic and specific adaptive capacity. The review will also serve to capture methods and approaches to measuring adaptive capacities on the ground. The literature review will inform a framework to track adaptive capacities at the local level during the implementation of CCA programs funded by international organisations. This first phase will be followed by the second phase that will evaluate the programme: "Taking Adaptation to the Ground: A Small Grants Facility (SGF) for Enabling Local Level Responses to Climate Change", funded by the Adaptation Fund and implemented in the Northern Cape and the Limpopo Basin, South Africa. The SGF programme's main objective is to empower local organisations so that their capacities to access external funding for CCA and to implement contextually-relevant adaptation programme are significantly enhanced.

Due to the early stage of this research, the presentation will focus on the result of its initial phase. More specifically, we will present a framework to assess adaptive capacities on the ground, among local institutions. This framework is based on a review of existing literature and on an in-depth assessment of institutional configurations within the studied area (Namakwa District in Northern Cape, South Africa). This type of research is critical to help provide an increased understanding of what constitutes an effective institutional configuration that supports the implementation of successful internationally-funded CCA strategies in developing regions. This work is important for informing future scaling up and replication of small grants-/financing approaches.

P-3312-07

## Climate Change Adaptation of Watershed Key Stakeholders in Talomo-Lipadas Watersheds, Davao City, Philippines

### N. Branzuela (1)

(1) University of Mindanao, Department of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Davao City, Philippines

Talomo-Lipadas Watershed, Davao City, Philippines is the main groundwater source for drinking water of 99% of the urban population in Davao City, Philippines (Hearne, 2011). Yet, these watersheds are in surmountable threats because of continuous land conversion, unavoidable development, unregulated water extraction, among others. Threats are exacerbated because of potential impacts of Climate Change.

The study aims to determine Station-scaling climate projections using Statistical Downscaling; groundwater recharge determination using Brook 90 hydrological model; projection of water demand using per capita method and lastly, identification of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of three key stakeholders groups.

Results revealed that months of March and April are likely to experience intense temperature along with a low flow recharge to groundwater, and this pattern will likely sustain until the next two slice period of 2050 and 2080. Moreover, the projected water demand is increasing from 101.26%, 228.18%, and 355.10% for the slice period of 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. With the potential Climate Change impact to watersheds, water deficit of -31.22 and 91.52 MCM (million cubic meters) is projected for time slice period of 2050 and 2080, respectively.
Stakeholders have fragmented priorities in their adaptation strategies. Domestic water users' planned adaptations are mainly for demand-side adaptation rather than supply-side adaptation. Watershed Managers' planned adaptation is to tap surface water and tree planting. Policy makers aim to fully implement City Ordinances pertaining to Watersheds.

P-3312-08

## Socio-economic aspects in the spatial differentiation of vulnerability to climate change in river basins

R. Corobov (1)

(1) EcoTiras International Association of River Keepers, Chisinau, Moldova

The measurement of vulnerability to climate change is a central moment in adaptation activity to mitigate adverse climatic impacts. Both natural and social scientists try to measure and assess such vulnerability, whether from the perspective of regions, socio-ecological systems, or individuals. Different approaches to this issue have penetrated into climate change research, and with rapid growth of attention to vulnerability, the concept itself has been re-defined, and new interpretations and approaches were developed.

Climate change represents a classic global problem characterized by infinitely diverse actors and multiple stressors at multiple scales. As a result, research on vulnerability to this phenomenon have to address at least three important challenges: (1) to improve approaches for comparing and aggregating impacts across diverse sectors and populations, (2) to model socioeconomic and information was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and (3) to account for multiple dimensions. Different challenges result in their different 'diagnoses' and different kinds of 'cures'.

Initially, the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was approached from the impacts point of view where it was defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse climatic effects. However, recently the emphasis in these efforts has moved from better defining exposure and potential impacts to a better understanding of factors that affect sensitivity of societies to these impacts and their capacity to adapt. There is an increasing recognition of the importance to consider the social component of vulnerability equally with the biophysical one, thus presenting vulnerability as a function both of physical characteristics of climate change and of social systems' inherent sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Various researches try to bridge the gap between social, natural, and physical sciences' contributions to new methodologies that confront this challenge, primary under the umbrella of sustainability and resilience. On the other hand, a system of vulnerability 'measurement' should allow comparisons between different places, social groups and sectors in terms of their susceptibility to climate change risks and capacities to deal with them. Climate change consequences first of all are experienced at regional and local levels, varying between communities, social groups in a community and even between individual households.

Based on evidences that surface waters are especially sensitive to changes in climate, the main goal of this contribution is to present the pioneer assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to climate change of the Dnieper River basin at its local level, namely – at the level of Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATU). To address this task there was proposed and practically realized a relevant methodology that included development of a set of specific indicators and proxies describing the natural and socioeconomic systems sensitivity to climate change impacts and adaptive capacity to confront them. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks, arranged respectively in an increasing or decreasing order; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks. To better understand the drivers of vulnerability and to compare ATUs in terms of risks, which they can face from climate change impacts, as well as their capacity to deal with their adverse consequences, the spatial models of local vulnerability and its components distribution were carried out. Corresponding maps revealed areas that are the most vulnerable and are needed in special attention in

climate change adaptation. In a final stage, the Dnieper basin's "hotspots" were discussed with wide public participation.

The proposed integrated approach to local vulnerabilities assessment facilitates allocation of limited resources equitably and efficiently among different entities – regions, administrative groups or different proponents of adaptation that is especially important for transition economies, to which Moldova is attributed.

P-3312-09

## Bottom-up initiatives for flood risk management in Europe: How can we evaluate governance processes and spatial outcomes? (TRANS-ADAPT research project, JPI-Climate)

A. Gatien-Tournat (1); M. Fournier (2); G. Mathilde (1); M. Bonnefont (2); S. Servain-Courant (3); D. Clarke (4); P. Driessen (5); S. Fuchs (6); D. Hegger (5); H. Mees (5); C. Murphy (4); T. Thaler (6)

(1) Université François-Rabelais Tours, UMR Citeres CNRS 7324, TOURS Cedex 3, France; (2) ESGT-CNAM, Le Mans, France; (3) INSA Centre Val de Loire - FNSNP Blois France;

(4) National University Ireland Maynooth, Irish climate analysis and research units (icarus), Maynooth, Ireland; (5) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht university, Utrecht, Netherlands; (6) University of Natural resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

The aim of the proposal is to present the Trans-Adapt research project and its assessment framework that will be applied and continuously monitored bottom-up to manage climate change adaptation strategies. Trans-Adapt (awarded by the European Joint Programming Initiative-Climate) focuses on bottom-up initiatives to flood risk management. In the context of climate change that triggers more extreme meteorological events, including severe floods, strategies are developed by local authorities, sometimes with the collaboration of civil society. These initiatives intend to make land allocations to flood risk management more efficient and socially beneficial. Trans-Adapt project assumes that these initiatives are different from mainstream flood risk management measures, dominated by one type of use (flood protection). Our hypothesis is that bottom-up initiatives pursued by local stakeholders lead to multi-functional use of land and represent a solution of adaptation to climate change. 12 case studies are studied in four European countries: Austria, France, Ireland and the Netherlands.

The overall aim of the project is to analyse, explain and evaluate similarities and differences between the selected regions in terms of climate change adaptation performance, with a particular focus at the local-individual household level, burden-sharing and equity issues. The purpose is to understand the challenges and limitations in the on-going policy and institutional arrangements, such as benefits and costs of adaptation measures at different levels.

The proposal will present Trans-Adapt research questions and the conceptual framework for assessment and evaluation of our case studies, which will give insights to the parallel session 'Assessing adaptation' in Day 3. Preliminary results from one French case study will be used as illustration of the assessment framework application.

In order to identify the barriers and limitations of the current governance and management structures in flood risk management, the project develops an analytical and evaluation framework that focuses on efficiency, effectiveness, legitimacy, accountability, social justice and social capacity, as classical policy analysis criteria. Moreover, we carry on a reflection on feasibility and vulnerability of the risk management processes and outcomes, in a policy design concern.

The assessment framework will adapt the chosen criteria to the specific topic of flood risk management, providing operational indicators that will be used to evaluate the 12 case studies.

The final objectives of the project will be to explore the possibilities for up-scaling and replicating local initiatives in other countries and outlining the institutional change required to facilitate local initiatives, by providing a means of guiding the decision-making process at different levels of authority.
## Prioritizing Climate Impact Risks at the Neighborhood-level: Applying a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis for Los Angeles County

B. Moy (1); H. Godwin, (1)

(1) UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Environmental Health Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America

Los Angeles presents a unique challenge in assessing local climate impacts on human health due to the county's diverse neighborhood demographics, numerous jurisdictions, and varying geography and microclimates. High-resolution climate modeling for Los Angeles County has allowed for climate impact assessments on the neighborhood level. In order to address these impacts, it is necessary to develop a regional Climate Adaptation Plan to prioritize activities and build resiliency to climate impacts for Los Angeles County. Unfortunately, few health impact tools allow for the ability to compare the risk for a range of climate impacts at the neighborhood-level. As a case study, UCLA researchers have adapted a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis tool to compare eight different areas by which climate change impacts health (extreme heat events, sea level rise, air quality, wildfires, vector-borne diseases, water availability and quality, food security, and health systems). We applied this tool to four different neighborhoods that represent the geographic and demographic diversity of Los Angeles and observed large differences in the overall and relative risk to climate change impacts for each neighborhood. This study provides strong evidence for the need to develop priorities and implementation plans at the neighborhood-level in large, complex regions like Los Angeles, and highlights a useful tool for ensuring that this planning process is evidence-based.

## Stepping on agricultural biodiversity to build resilient small-holder farming systems in West African Sahel

S. N'danikou (1); SR. Vodouhe (1)

(1) Bioversity International, West and central Africa office, Cotonou, Benin

There is evidence that the impact of climate change on agriculture will increase, under the status quo scenario. It is also advocated that agricultural biodiversity (ABD) is part of the solution to minimize the negative effects of climate change and variability on livelihoods and food security. In this paper we investigated the best adapted crop varieties to the prevailing biotic and abiotic conditions of West African Sahel. The study aimed to assess and test the adaption potential of local genetic diversity to critical environmental conditions in the region. The field experiments were carried out using the Diversity Field Fora (DFF) participatory research approach in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Each DFF consisted in a group of 25 farmers, gender mixed, which received a diversity kit (a collection of local cultivars and improved varieties grown in the contrasting environmental conditions of each country), and worked together to select preferred and adapted crop varieties to local conditions. A total of nine communities (225 farmers) participated in the DFF participatory research in the three countries. Each DFF received a minimum of six varieties or cultivars of each crop. After two cropping cycles, each community selected the three top performing crop varieties or cultivars that are best adapted to their environmental but also social and cultural contexts. This selection followed a south-north climatic gradient, dividing the study area into i) dry zones (<600 mm rainfall per year), ii) semi-arid zone (600-800 mm rainfall per year) and iii) relatively humid zones (>800 mm rainfall per year). Farmers' criteria for selecting adapted crop varieties included time to maturity, resistance to drought, resistance to diseases, yield and food quality attributes (taste, flavour, colour, etc.). Through the DFF trained farmers selected and multiplied adapted cowpea, fonio, sorghum and millet varieties. Thanks to the capacity building activities, seeds of the farmer selected local varieties were multiplied and certified as commercial seeds in Mali and similar efforts are on-going in Burkina Faso and Niger. We concluded that cultivating adapted local and improved varieties would increase resilience of the farming systems in the region for resilient food systems.

## Indicators of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations and Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change and Sustainability in Uttar Pradesh the Northern State of India

M. Nandkishor (1)

(1) Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Department of Environmental Science, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India

Climate Change poses an unprecedented impact to the life on earth. In addition, predictions about the scale and enormity of it are continually being revised upwards so what was already a serious situation continues to look even more alarming. The atmospheric greenhouse gases and their levels, too, are increasing and are creating warmer temperatures, receding glaciers, sea level rise and an unpredictable climate with a range of extremely serious and hard to predict consequences.

The impacts of climate change in Indian subcontinent are important in many ways due to diverse topography, seasons etc. India in fact is considered to be highly vulnerable not only because of large physical exposure to climate related disasters 65% of India is drought prone, 12% Flood prone and 8% susceptible to cyclones are just indicative. It is a giant rain fed ecosystem and also because of its dependency for economic growth and majority of its population on natural resources viz Water resources, agriculture, forests animal husbandry, fisheries etc. With a large land area and diversity of agroclimatic and ecological regions, it makes it a more vulnerable to the impending threat of climate change that threatens livelihood security of large rural masses of the country. India has been aggressively pursuing the agenda of combating climate change on two fronts namely adaptation and mitigation and to ensure coherence between the Climate change strategies on National and State levels, National and State plans have been envisaged. This is over and above the National Missions including one on climate change as a policy measure.

State of Uttar Pradesh possesses socio-cultural and geographic diversity with its eastern parts touches the foothills of Himalaya. It is one of the most populous states of the country with 16.49 % of country's total population of 1.21 billion with 7.87% of country's geographical area. The states has been divided into four zones or regions viz. Western Region, Central Region, Eastern Region and Bundelkhand Region. The three sub-regions aredivideddivisions and almost 79% populations is residing in rural areas of 97942 inhabited villages and 114 forest villages.

Studies carried out on the indicators of Rainfall/precipitation of five successive years of last decade particularly between 2006-2010 indicates that Bundelkhand region of the state is predominantly drought prone while some part of Eastern and Western suffers from a flood which is one of the important drivers of forced migration of workforce to other regions of country. The estimated percentage of migration of workforce who have small and marginal land holding ranges from 10 to 35% and upto 40% in the landless labourers. The nature of migration also varies in both the post and preharvest season known as rabbi and khrip. One of the observation indicated that inclement flood preceded by long dry spell is also negatively influencing the agricultural productivity of the region. These are the areas that reflect more as negative indicators of productivity due to variety of reasons. Further climate of the region also varies from moderately temperate in the Himalayan region to tropical monsoon in the Central plains and southern upland regions

Our analysis to assess the flood/drought dister risk by Latin Square Desig (LSD) uses statistical software SPSS reveals direct relationship of degraded ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods of the dependent population who are peasants with small land holding and agriculture labors primarily. Interestingly some measures adopted by the farmers and the state policies to resolve the ecological crisis are indicative of strategies to combat the threat. One of the means of weather based crop insurance is also felt important as untimely weather fluctuations are compounding the losses to the small and marginal farmers and many have succumbed over the last decade. This paper attempts to highlight impending issues in the context of Uttar Pradesh a Northern State of India focusing on issues of sustainability which is pivotal.
# The effects of ecosystem-based adaptation on vulnerability to climate change: evidence from semi-arid Brazil

M. Obermaier (1) ; MC. Lemos, (2) ; YJ. Lo, (2) ; AM. Bedran, (3)

(1) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil; (2) University of Michigan, School of natural resources and environment, Ann Arbor, United States of America; (3) Faculdade de Saúde Pública (USP), Departamento de saúde ambiental, São Paulo, Brazil

Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in rural parts of developing countries is an important, but relatively understudied topic. One important question is the effect of social interventions and anti-poverty programs on vulnerability and influence the possibility of social transformation (Lemos et al. 2013, Eakin et al. 2014). While there is growing evidence that poverty is a robust predictor of vulnerability, there is also growing attention to the ways they do not overlap and/or the different ways they do overlap (Olson et al. 2014, Nelson et al. in review, Patt 2012). In this context, so-called ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies - i.e. options that combine community management of natural resources with specific agro-ecological technical assistance and production methods - have gained wider attention specifically in Latin America as means for reducing vulnerability to climatic extremes while simultaneously contributing to local sustainable development (Magrin et al., 2014). But while the role of sustainable use of biodiversity for climate adaptation is relatively unquestioned, there is little evidence on the effects on reducing social vulnerability, particularly when assessed in the context of ongoing anti-poverty programs.

This study assesses the effects of ecosystem-based sustainability projects on smallholder farmers. We focus our research on drought-vulnerable communities in Northeast Brazil where we already carried out research and collected longitudinal data at the household (in 1998, 2012, 2013 and 2014) and municipal (in 1998 and 2012) levels at the intersection of livelihoods, technological innovation, environmental sustainability and vulnerability to drought (Lemos et al., 2002; Obermaier, 2013; Obermaier et al., 2014; Simões et al., 2010; Tompkins et al., 2008). Climate projections for NE Brazil indicate a strong likelihood of decreased precipitation, resulting in more aridization and drought (Magrin et al., 2014), which will further exacerbate social vulnerability to currently sensitive populations in the region.

Our motivation for carrying out the research in Brazil is the ability to locate the analysis in the context of a much larger social experiment in poverty elimination implemented by the Brazilian government since the late 1990s called Programa Bolsa Familia. The program provides a conditional cash allowance to all households with school age children and whose income is below a minimum amount established by the government. In order to qualify for the allowance families have to enroll and keep their children in school and provide basic health care (e.g. vaccination). One hypothesis behind the Bolsa Familia program is that it will slowly eliminate severe poverty in Brazil and potentially transform the livelihoods of the segments of the population that currently live below the poverty line (below 2 dollars a day).

First evidence by our research supports the hypothesis that although Bolsa Familia is necessary for families it is also insufficient to reduce vulnerability to drought. On the other hand, ecosystem-based strategies carried out through regional Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity Programs in NE Brazil seem to enable rural farmers to maintain their food security (including access and nutrition values) at higher levels as well as to contribute to income generation.

Empirical findings from this research will critically contribute to both scholarship and policymaking. Currently, there is debate among academics and practitioners alike regarding the best types of actions to reduce the risk of experiencing harm derived from extreme events particularly within the developing world where losses are expected to be significant. In order to support household adaptation, policy makers must decide whether it is more effective to

invest in measures that will reduce vulnerability to a broad range of both climatic and non-climatic stressors, or whether it is best to focus on enhancing specific capacities to manage particular hazards. In terms of the livelihood framework, policy-makers must decide which types of livelihood assets should be strengthened through public investment and support. This research will contribute to this debate by providing empirical evidence of the role of anti-poverty programs in building vulnerable households' and individuals' adaptive capacity to climate impact.

# Water security indicators for a climate variability and climate change adaptation process in the Maipo River basin in Central Chile

A. Ocampo-Melgar, (1) ; J. Gironás, (2) ; S. Vicuna (3)

(1) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Departamento de ingeniería hidráulica y ambiental, Santiago, Chile; (2) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Centro de cambio global uc, Santiago, Chile; (3) Centro de Cambio Global UC, Pontificia universidad católica de chile, Santiago, Chile

Observed climate change effects are challenging government and societies to start thinking how to adapt to an even more extreme range of potential future changes that will impact many aspects of our lives. As this need for adaptation arises so does the practical details about how to successfully implement this adaptation process, given the socio-ecological complexity of systems involved. The Maipo river basin in the semi-arid Central Chile is an example of such systems that most likely will need to adapt in the future due to climate change. The Maipo river provides water for over six million people and to more than 200.000 hectares of agricultural land and many other productive (e.g. mining, hydropower) and not productive activities in the Santiago Metropolitan Region. Previous studies have shown that future temperature and precipitation scenarios will result in more stress to the already water scarce basin, but could also result in more extreme flood events due to a rising zero degree isotherm.

To face the multiple demands in an uncertain future with climate change and population increase, the public and private sectors as well as the civil society will require information and tools to concentrate efforts in the most relevant areas of climate change. To respond to this need, a three-year project (2012-2015) entitled MAPA (Maipo Adaptation Plan for its initials in Spanish) is being implemented in collaboration with a multi-stakeholder platform of around 30 public, private and civil society organizations, both at the local and regional level. The objective of the project is to both identify vulnerabilities and adaptation options to potential future scenarios in the basin. To facilitate the work the scientific team and the stakeholders were grouped in three working groups (i.e. mountain/natural systems, rural sector and urban sub-sector). This project is guided by the Robust Decision Making framework that incorporates both stakeholders expertise and computational capabilities in a mutual feedback process to identify future scenarios, appropriate tools and models, adaptation measures and Performance Indicators, which are a key outcome. These indicators are effective in both the identification of base-line vulnerability levels and the understanding of the benefits of implementing adaptation measures given uncertain scenarios.

Since water is the common link between the diversity of threats and demands at different scales in a basin, we used the Water Security definition by the U.N. to frame a participatory process to identify locally-based, multi-scale Performance Indicators, and measure climate change impacts in a way that could trigger the implementation of adaptation measures. In order to operationalize the definition into the adaptation process, we disaggregated water security into its five main sub-components (i.e. economic development, livelihoods, ecosystems conservation, protection against hazards and protection against water-borne pollution). The concept and its sub-components were initially discussed with the working groups. A set of factors, demands and aspirations denoting water security in different spatial and temporal scales were identified by each working group (e.g. flow of water for rafting, volume of minerals extracted or turbidity in water). The indicators, relationships and casual links among them were analyzed and consolidated in order to generate a conceptual model to characterize water security
in the Maipo basin.

The guided but still highly participatory process implemented in this study identified causal links and scales of indicators, which in turns will allow defining metrics and optimum levels to be used as early signs in this adaptation plan in process. The water security conceptual model goes beyond capturing water physical manifestations, as it attempts to make visible hidden connections to ecosystem goods and services and human aspirations that represent human well-being, which could be finally impacted by climate change.

The approach has also the potential to capture the general aspirations of the different users in a basin related with economic development, ecosystem conservation, basic human needs, pollution and hazard allowing in this way not only the water, but also a physical water representation but also measures that are closely related to the final objectives that water security tries to achieve: human well-being.

P-3312-15

## Emerging Response to climate change and
Variability in Semi-Arid Areas of East Africa

E. Ogallo (1); E. Komutunga (2); G. Sabiti (3); SM. Mikalitsa (1)

(1) University of Nairobi, Geography and Environmental Studies, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) National Agricultural Research Organization, Kampala, Uganda; (3) Makerere university, Kampala, Uganda

Arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by insufficient rainfall to sustain agricultural production. The rains are erratic and often come in a few heavy storms of short duration resulting in high run-off, instead of replenishing the ground water. Protective vegetation cover is sparse and there is very little moisture for the most parts of the year. Communities in these regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change not only because of their dependence on climate sensitive sectors but also due to limited capacities to anticipate and effectively respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to determine the emerging coping and adaptation strategies of the local communities in Semi- arid Regions of East Africa with a view of enhancing their resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. The paper is based on the synthesis and comparative analysis of coping and adaptation strategies employed by different countries in East Africa. The study found out that the communities and local governments are investing on several adaptation activities to address impacts of climate change in semi-arid areas. These include rain water harvesting for domestic, livestock and agricultural production needs. The availability of this water resource significantly reduces community vulnerability to food insecurity. The establishment of water pans and water conservation structures provide opportunities for the local community to diversify their economic activities through the cultivation of high value horticultural crops under drip irrigation systems. The pastures and improved fodder grasses planted under furrow water conservation structures provides the opportunity for the local community to produce pastures/fodders during the dry periods. The proactive responses and investment in conservation structures in ASALs, crucial towards enhancing resilience and adaption of the local communities from the adverse vagaries of climate change. Other projects such as cropping and agronomic adaptation options that promote already existing best management practices should be implemented. There is also a need for the integration of local knowledge in government climate policies to improve adaptation and enhance local adaptation strategies.

P-3312-16

## Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment: A case Study of Lesser Himalaya

BW. Pandey (1)

(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Climate change and land use degradation are accelerating water induced hazards such as cloudburst, flash floods, riverine floods, surface erosion and landslides in

Himalayan geosystem. Himalayas, due to their complex geological structure, dynamic geomorphology, and seasonal hydro-meteorological conditions experience very frequent natural disasters, especially water induced hazards. Natural hazards have had significant impacts on life and property in areas with high population densities and land use intensity. The escalation of risks and vulnerability has come about through population growth and land use intensification in the areas, both of which have encroached upon hazard zones and in some case, such as road construction on the slopes, have exacerbated the hazard of slope failure. The association of deforestation, rainfall and steep topography was augmentative.

Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is being proposed to assess climate change vulnerability of communities with a case study in high mountain areas in the Beas River valley of lesser Himalaya. The index consists of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability such as Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity. Exposure is defined by Natural disaster and Climate variability, however Sensitivity by Health, Food, and Water and Adaptive Capability by Socio demographic profile, Livelihood strategies, and Social networks.

P-3312-17

## Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin of Tanzania: coping or adapting to climate stresses?

NM. Pauline (1)

(1) University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resources Assessment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of of

Climate change and variability are pervasive contemporary realities in Africa. In this paper, we investigate the changes that have occurred in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin (GRRB), Tanzania. By making use of a mixed-methods approach, including both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods, we demonstrate that climatic stresses have increased since the 1990s, as have limiting factors constraining effective and sustainable response options. By interrogating data from smallholder farmers focus group discussions, household questionnaire surveys and records in government institutions we show that sustainable livelihoods in this area are compromised by non-climatic stresses such as a lack of coordinated crop markets and poor access to loans, weather forecast information, and to irrigation infrastructure. Smallholder farmer responses to climatic stresses (i.e. resources utilisation, farming methods diversification) have changed over time, with corresponding changes in coping strategies that are adopted in response to specific stresses. Barriers to adaptation include limited access to irrigation water, crop markets and loans. Consequently, smallholder farmers are resorting to shorter-term coping strategies more frequently than longer-term adaptation to impacts of climatic stresses, and are thus still heavily reliant on social, economic and policy support to improve their adaptive capacity.

P-3312-18

## Generating Knowledge and Capacity for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Water Security

F. Picado (1); O. Jordan (2); M. Moran (3); O. Smith, (3); J. Guardia, (3); CLA. Del (4); J. Perez, (2); M. Oyuela, (2); G. Santos, (5); J. Contreras, (6); H. Alvarado, (7)

(1) Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC), in Spanish), Director General, Panama, (2) CATHALAC, Panama, Panama; (3) CATHALAC, Research, Panama, Panama; (4) CATHALAC, Ict, Panama, Panama; (5) University of San Carlos (USAC)/, Guatemala, Guatemala; (6) Tecnological Institute of Santo Domingo (INTEC, in Spanish), Environmental dept., Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; (7) CUNOC/ USAC, Quetzaltenango, Guatemala

This research seeks to narrow the existing gap between scientific knowledge on climate change impacts on water resources and efforts made by national and local water management institutions in Central America and the Caribbean. Hence, from the start, these institutions were involved, in two prioritized countries, to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures on water resources in this region. Regional, national and municipal
scales of analysis were used in a pilot basin in each of the two countries under study: the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. Research was done together with universities, ministries of environment and other stakeholders from two municipalities per basin, making it one of the key aspects that contribute to achieving the objective. This approach of incorporating decision makers, water resource managers and other stakeholders, aims to promote the application of the findings and the use of research results to strengthen learning and management skills for beneficiaries and the organization leading the research.

For the climate change models for the region published in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (AR4, AR5), we performed a comparative analysis, in terms of future water availability. It is among the main results of the project, to date. Based on technical criteria, we chose four of the 19 General Circulation Models (GCMs) published in the last IPCC report, the new Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). These models inputs to determine the impacts of future climate change on water quantity, compared to current conditions. Distinct models produced different results, especially for rainfall. Regarding erosion, the most vulnerable basins were mostly located in Haiti and Guatemala. Hydrologic and climate modeling with a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provided more detailed analysis. The two basins. Results will be available in a public website, for consultation by the 22 countries in this region and can be used in their next Climate Change National Communications. Project-sponsored universities, national researchers, and students collectively performed vulnerability analyses in the pilot basins. Thru the project, a regional study was done in the countries with information available, to understand how the countries invested climate and water resources. I showed that from 2006 to 2014, the most funding comes from external sources. From this 60%, three quarters go to the implementation of programs and costs of operation and maintenance of infrastructure. One quarter goes to actual infrastructure or hard investments. In general, countries set priorities depending on the pressure over water resources from different sectors, especially agriculture, energy generation and industry.

In the policy framework, the Roman law system prevails for Central America and in the Caribbean, the so-called common law applies. Differences in motivation are evident in the regulatory frameworks among the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member countries and the Central American Integration System (SICA) countries. Both policy and investment studies were specific to both pilot countries. The studies were complemented by a thorough analysis of water resources management, conducted by relevant stakeholders from the pilot municipalities. It found that conflicts and gaps existed in the institutional responsibilities, policies, regulations and investments to the sectors. It identified the different local strategies that allow people to move forward in terms of water security. The municipal government scale is where findings will integrate at the end. The biophysical, economic, management and political research done will be the basis to develop Municipal Adaptation Plans. Research results plus lessons learned, will be used to prepare the guides to optimize public investment in climate change adaptation on water resources. Local stakeholders have already integrated into a «Participation Focus Group (GFP)» in each country basin in a process that promotes learning, communication and empowerment of results. They have participated in the whole process; strengthened their knowledge and perspectives validated methodologies and monitored research outcomes, and provided recommendations. A public resource-sharing platform will complement the advances in guiding adaptation policy through knowledge built together. It will provide results and products already obtained, and the new ones we expect to obtain. This platform aims to engage and share with the rest of the regional community as a means to promote sustainability, scaling and dissemination of results.

P-3312-19

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex ante assessment of the completeness, transparency, legitimacy, and expected effectiveness of responsibilities for climate adaptation

H. Runhaar (1); C. Uittenbroek (1); RM. Van (2); H. Mees, (1); P. Driessen, (1); H. Gilissen, (2)

(1) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (2) Utrecht Centre for Water, Oceans and Sustainability Law, Utrecht, Netherlands

Climate change related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and fluvial flooding, droughts, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary but not only one being required for climate change. In this paper we present a preliminary test, a method for the ex ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. With this method, we intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.

Keywords: adaptation; climate change; responsibilities; ex ante assessment method; the Netherlands.

P-3312-20

A comparative sustainability analysis of conservation agriculture in the Mediterranean: The ACLIMAS project

A. Scardigno (1); V. Giannini (2); L. Bonzanigo (3); D. El Chami (4); M. Boughlala (5); MT. Abi Saib (6); Y. Shakhatche (7); C. Giupponi (8)

(1) CIHEAM-Mediterranean Agronomical Institute of Bari (IAMB), Land and Water Resources Management, Valenzano, Italy; (2) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiani Climatici, Venezia, Italy; (3) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice centre for climate studies, Venezia, Italy; (4) University of the Free State, Department of agricultural economics, Bloemfontein, South Africa; (5) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Settat, Morocco; (6) Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute, Fanar, Lebanon; (7) National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension, Bqa'a', Jordan; (8) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venezia, Italy

The sustainability analysis of selected combinations of genotypes and water management practices (including water harvesting and conservation tillage) is here interpreted as an analytical approach towards the long-term perspectives. The selected combinations, specifically chosen as potential alternatives to current farming practices, should help farmers to cope with more frequent droughts induced by climate change, as well as being able to sustain their farms' activity over time. We present herein the sustainability assessment of three different Mediterranean case studies, by analysing trade-offs among environmental, economic, and social performances of farms from the Chauia Region in Morocco, Beka'a Valley in Lebanon and in Irbid Governorate in Jordan growing mainly cereals and legumes improved varieties tolerant to water, heat and salinity stresses. Several combinations of different genotypes, fertilizers practices, tillage systems and water management options were tested and evaluated. The sustainability assessment, carried out within the activities of the project Adaptation to Climate Change of the Mediterranean Agricultural Systems (ACLIMAS, EuropeAid ENPI/2011/269-668), adopts a participatory, multicriteria decision support system framework including several steps: (1) description of farming systems: identification of farmers' problems and priorities to be considered in the evaluation; (2) design of the knowledge base: identification of evaluation criteria (indicators) for the three pillars of sustainability (environment, economy, and society) in accordance to the local specificities; (3) collection of quantitative data for the selected indicators and (4) multicriteria sustainability analysis of different combinations proposed by ACLIMAS. Results demonstrate that "ACLIMAS practices" increase the three dimensions of a sustainable development and have a high rate of acceptability and a big potential of adoption.
# Climate Change and Adaptation Capacities in Ethiopia: Constraints and Opportunities

RB. Singh (1)

(1) Ethiopian Civil Service University, Urban Environment and Climate Change Management, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Assessment carried out under Ethiopian National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) indicates that, agricultural, water and human health are the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia. The present paper focus on the agriculture sector, as agriculture production complemented with pastoralist production, provide livelihood to about 80 percent of Ethiopia's population. Both of these activities are very sensitive to the changes in the climate conditions. Further, available data indicate that, in Ethiopia climate change impacts may be severe and the existing adaptation capacities are not sufficient to deal with these severe problems. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impacts of climate change and constraints and opportunities pertaining to adaptation capacities in Ethiopia. Due to the financial limitations, the assessment was limited to two woredas (districts) of the country-Gudura, Oromia region, and two woredas of the regional agricultural and Mieso, Somal region (predominantly pastoralist) achieve the objectives of the study both primary and secondary data was collected. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire survey of 100 farmers in Gudura woreda and 50 pastoralists in Mieso woreda. Further, interview was also conducted with 8 expert from federal agricultural and environmental ministries, federal and concerned regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), respective woreda are the heads and experts of CSO named Forum of Environment, Addis Ababa, case of farmers for the questionnaire survey, sample respondents were selected by simple random method and experts were chosen through purposeful sampling technique. Secondary data were also used to identify the types and nature of climate change impacts. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, Narration and document analyze technique was utilized. Both instrumental and proxy record have shown substantial variation in the spatial and temporal patterns of climate in the country, the UNDP climate change profile for Ethiopia shows that the mean annual temperature increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade, further the results of the IPCC's mid-range emission scenario show that compared to the 1961-1990 annual precipitation show a change of between 0.6 and 4.9% and 1.1 to 18.2% for 2030 and 2050, respectively. The percentage change in seasonal rainfall is expected to be up to about 12% over most parts of the country including the study areas. Environmental extremes are decreasing the land's productive capacity leading to a decrease in subsistence agriculture, income, assets, and a rapid decline in the health and nutritional status of the rural population and ultimately force rural people to migrate to urban centers. Latter the results of the study enable to conclude that an adaptation capacity both at household and institutional levels are very low and indicates that climate change governance framework is not properly operational. Poverty, limited resources (such as land and livestock), lack of access to credits and finance, alternative sources of income, as well as technology, knowledge and expertise, lack of integrated public policies and effective program enforcement, increase the vulnerability and adversely affect the capacity to cope with the problems. However, one can also visualize certain opportunities in the form of CRGE (Climate Resilient Green Economy) strategy, Energy Policy and Bio-fuel strategy, public sector capacity building project, southern voices capacity building program, international and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) about 60 CSOs/NGOs formed a network—the ECSNCC (the Ethiopian Civil Society Network on Climate change), which proactively engaged in international negotiations (as observers), the generation of research based knowledge, raising of public awareness, building of local capacity and supporting adaptation efforts. The promotion of micro finance by federal government and education, training and consultancy services available at Ethiopian Universities which may be utilized to enhance the adaptation capacity to cope with the climate change impacts. To improve the situation it is recommended to invest in climate change research and livelihood opportunities and strengthening the capacity of policymakers and institutions to enforce policies and programs.

# Assessing adaptation in evolving populations

T. Van Dooren (1)

(1) Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Evolutionary Ecology, team Phenotypic Variability and Adaptation (VPA), Paris, France

The current theoretical framework for the management of populations which are responding to global change lacks a systematic integration of the biological concept of adaptation. In evolutionary biology, «adaptation» describes the evolutionary process where organisms become fitted to their environments. The same term is used to denote the results of such adaptive processes: suites of evolved characteristics which are optimal in a specific service. By using adaptive dynamics modelling, it has become possible to investigate adaptation to complex and variable environments, with interactions between individuals of the same and of different species. There is one difficulty, however, when this type of modelling is applied in the context of climate change adaptation: it assumes environments which are stationary and which are not changing with a trend.

By means of a textbook model of bet-hedging evolution, namely for plants with a seed bank and an evolving germination probability, I illustrate how concepts from adaptive dynamics modelling can still assist in predicting how natural populations would respond adaptively to climate change and in assessing adaptation. I will show that during gradual environmental change, populations will often lag behind the most adaptive response. Surprisingly, there are conditions where the adaptive state does not show a unidirectional trend. Its changes can reverse direction. The consequence is that populations which lag behind, can suddenly find themselves lagging ahead.

This model is extended with evolving phenotypic plasticity, and an exploration of evolutionary scenarios where the environmental change has a tipping point.

P-3312-23

# Analysis of Spatio-temporal Climate Variability and Resulting Challenges for Household Adaptation in Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya

E. Wabwire (1)

(1) Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Geography and Environmental Studies, Nairobi, Kenya

Climate variation is one of the most challenging and intricate problems facing the world today. The resulting effects of changing climates have been of great concern to almost all sectors of the economy in Africa. This study sought to analyze spatial and temporal climate variability and the resulting challenges for household adaptation in Lake Victoria basin of Kenya. Most households in rural areas of Kenya have adaptation capability is low and this probably could result in serious challenges in as far as their livelihoods in concerned. The objectives of this study were to determine rainfall and temperature as indicators of climate variability experienced in Lake Victoria basin of Kenya. It sought to establish local awareness of climate variability, perceptions about vulnerability and observed adaptations with view to recommend effective adaptation measures.

The study presumed that rainfall and temperatures have a change in water availability in Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya between 1975 and 2014, there was no sufficient effect of climate variability on households of Lake Victoria Basin, the residents of Lake Victoria Basin lacked sufficient knowledge on the effects of climate variations and that there are no observable adaption measures put in place in Lake Victoria Basin.

To achieve the objectives of this study, an empirical research design was employed. Climate variability was determined using rainfall and temperature data from observations and climate models over a period of 40 years, future projection were also done for period of until 2100 in order to establish future climatic pathways. Both primary and secondary data were used in this study. The primary data was used to assess the implications of
climate variability on rural livelihood. The respondents from the study area were interviewed using a standardized interview schedule or depending on their literacy level and availability, they were supplied with a questionnaire. Focus Group Discussions were set up to explore important issues regarding livelihoods in the community.

In data analysis basic statistics of mean, standard deviation, Skewness, kurtosis and trend were used to show the central tendency of climate. The optimal fingerprinting (Paeth and Mannig 2012) was applied in order to quantify climate change signals in the light of internal climate variability

Africa's development efforts in the continent over depend on natural resources which are vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study used multinomial logit models to analyze the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability and change on household adaptation. The Heckman model was used to assess whether households perceive climate variability and assess their decision making process to adapt or not. The data was collected from a survey of about 400 households using semi structured questionnaires. The climatic data were obtained from Kenya Meteorological Headquarters at Dagoreti as well as from gridded observational and regional climate model data sets. This study used the newest CMIP5 and CORDEX model data sets for the assessment of climate variability and change over eastern Africa. The study was designed to have an in-depth understanding of climate variability and change at small area within on regional scale. The results of this study have been helpful in influencing the policy markers' decision making process in the face of climate variability adaptation measures at both national levels.

Households in both rural and urban settings experienced huge burden to adapt to persistent climate variations. The variations were hardly predictable within space and time and frequently they induce disasters such as prolonged droughts or floods which have heavy burden to human livelihoods. The study established that traditionally, people used the indigenous knowledge to predict certain climate change; they also managed to cope with changing climates through applying certain adaptation measures such as planting different crop varieties, improving water conservation techniques and keeping livestock as a buffer to crop failure. Today the paradox is that people are not aware of changes in climate and the indigenous knowledge which was significant is now scanty in the face of scientific knowledge.

P-3312-24

## Key climate change adaptation deficits in Indonesia: Sectoral coordination and local capacity building

R. Joseph-Paulus (1) ; R. Hindmarsh, (2)

(1) Local Government of Buton Selatan Regency, Regional development planning agency (bappeda) and dayanu ikhisanuddin university (unidaya), Bauab, Indonesia; (2) Griffith University, Environmental politics, policy and its Griffith school of environment, and centre for governance, Brisbane, Australia

The commitment to mainstream responses to climate change in Indonesia's development agenda has been acknowledged in several government regulations. Many obstacles hinder such efforts, especially the lack of clarity in the functions, central and local governments and lack of capacity within the governments to administer new functions due to decentralization. To encourage Indonesia's participation in this global issue, there is an urgent need to identify ways to develop national capacity, including local government due to their significant roles to mainstream climate change adaptation into development agenda. This paper outlines the findings of a field trip to central and several local governments in Indonesia to seek the views of policy-makers, researchers, community representatives and other key actors related

to climate change adaptation. Emphasised areas for enhanced adaptation policy development were, first, institutional strengthening through the enhancement of sectoral coordination and capacity building to ensure the adequate institutional setting and capacity. Second, for effective sectoral coordination among government agencies there needs to be elevated synchronisation of crosscutting issues, and the development of appropriate coordinating agencies and appropriate guidelines for the local level mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into development. In turn, for enhancement of capacity building there needs to be elevated local governmental and civic awareness raising; promotion of government and non-governmental partnerships; and greater availability of scientific assessment and incentives as well as inclusion of local social and traditional knowledge

P-3312-25

## Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods at Small Area Level in Malawi

S. Zhang (1) ; M. Bangalore (2) ; D. Schensul (1) ; S. Hallegatte (2)

(1) United Nations Population Fund, Technical Division, New York, United States of America; (2) World Bank, Climate change group, Washington, DC, United States of America

Vulnerability assessments involve indicators and measurement methodologies to assess the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems, for example to natural disasters such as floods. Flood events directly and indirectly threaten people's health, livelihoods, food security, and deepen poverty. Flood is expected to worsen with climate change, and has disproportionate impacts on different segments of the population. Poor people, women, youths, adolescents, people with disability, and migrants are more generally more vulnerable to the impacts of floods. In many urban areas, inequities will become more apparent with higher concentration of vulnerable people in less desired but higher-risk locations. There is urgent need for incorporating socioeconomic vulnerability and equity factors into climate change adaptation planning and development policies. In this paper, we examine the vulnerability to flooding in Malawi at small areas levels, integrating a number of datasets.

In Malawi, we will integrate socio-demographic data with hazard data and examine vulnerability at the small-area level. We employ census data for demographic, housing quality, and service data, World Bank estimates for poverty data, and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for education and nutrition data. This socio-demographic data will be merged with spatial hazard data on flood risk in Malawi, from two global hydrological models (GLOFris and SSBN). As socio-demographic data is at the 2nd and 3rd administrative boundary level, and hazard data is at high-resolution, the vulnerability analysis will be done at small area level, based on the level at which decision-making processes are made. The joint paper will identify a suite of indicators to develop a vulnerability index, and examine where high vulnerability coincides with high risk from flood, through spatial and statistical analysis.

The project will pilot the vulnerability index and assessment in Malawi, a country with increased pressures from population dynamics, poverty and natural disasters, where the climate data and information are sorely lacking. In addition to examining socioeconomic vulnerability, the index can be disaggregated to provide information on each dimension (demography, health, economic and flood). By disaggregating vulnerability at small geographic level over four dimensions, the project aims to better understand the socio-demographic vulnerability to floods, in a context of climate change. It is also in line with the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals and targets both in terms of equity and resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and adaption, as well as providing evidenced data by small geographic location. The data, index and methodology applied in this project may also be scaled-up to more countries.
ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-3313-01

Coordinated adaptation to future climate
change, Concept and case studies in China

G. Jia (1); C. Fu (2); Z. Ma (1)

(1) Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of atmospheric physics, Beijing, China; (2) CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Nanjing University, Beijing | Nanjing, China

Human societies have continuously adjusted themselves to meet the dynamics of climate since ancient time, long before global climate change is considered as threaten issue. Traditional approaches for climate change adaptation are often based on certain sector or administrative unit, and lack of coordination or integration across those boundaries. Such barriers among sectors and administrative units often cause conflict interests and compromised overall effects of those efforts. In some extreme cases, the adaptation strategies developed by one sector or area could even lead negative impacts on other sectors or areas. Therefore, different sectors and subregions are encouraged to work together to develop coordinated and integrated adaptation strategies at regional and global scales, in order to achieve optimal effects for sustainable development. Here we propose and discuss the possible pathways, i.e., coordinated adaptation strategies, towards integrated approaches for climate change adaptation across sectorial and administrative boundaries. Such approaches ask policy and planning at the scale of an entire region or subregion and cutting across sectorial boundaries. The proactive and coordinated adaptation planning potentially affects all sectors and all parts of a region. Cross-sectoral and cross subregion policy coordination mechanisms will also be discussed, with several case studies related to regional urban clusters and dryland watershed management in China in response to climate change.

K-3313-02

UNEP's global adaptation strategy: from
global governance to community based
solutions

K. Alverson (1)

(1) PO BOX 30552, Climate Change Adaptation, Freshwater and Terrestrial Ecosystems, Nairobi, Kenya

Recognizing the need for integration across scales and sector's UNEP's adaptation portfolio includes actions on many different levels of governance (global, regional, national, sub-national, local) alongside coordinated engagement across different sectors of government, economy and society.

The presentation will first introduce UNEP's global adaptation efforts; including the 2014 United Nations Environmental Assembly Resolution on Ecosystem based Adaptation, the Global Adaptation Network, our global support programs for NAPs and access to climate finance and publications oriented towards informing global climate negotiations such as the Emissions and Adaptation Gap Reports.

The presentation will then highlight UNEP adaptation actions at the regional level including management of transboundary resources in the context of climate change and regional knowledge sharing on adaptation under the "Lima Adaptation Knowledge Initiative" pledge the Nairobi Workprogram of the UNFCCC.

Finally, the presentation will provided an overview of UNEP's portfolio of national and local projects under implementation, helping communities around the world harness ecosystems to build resilience as part of their adaptation plans and actions.

The presentation will conclude with an overview of UNEP's
program of actions supporting countries in the leadup to
the Paris COP.

K-3313-03

EU climate adaptation policy integration
between mainstreaming and marginalisa-
tion

S. Weiland (1)

(1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

Policies on climate change adaptation aim to contribute to a more climate-resilient society. In the European Union, this is pursued by ensuring that adaptation considerations are addressed in all relevant EU policies. It also promotes greater coordination and information-sharing among Member States. Such coordination of climate change adaptation measures require the vertical integration of different levels of governance (European, national, regional, local) as well as horizontal integration between different sectors of the economy and society. This 'mainstreaming' will also offer potential for synergies if adaptation policies are successfully coordinated.

Horizontal and vertical policy integration is to be seen as
means to achieve policy coherence for climate adaptation.
The rationale for such an approach is that cross-cutting
priorities can all too often fall into the gaps that exist
between narrowly specified sector objectives or lead to
inconsistent or conflicting policy objectives within sectors.
Integration is particularly vital for climate adaptation
as climate change impacts have implications for many sectors
and actors. However, adaptation concerns may get side-
lined as they can be obstructed by sectoral objectives that
are of more immediate concern or that appear to compete
with adaptation. So while the rationale to integrate seems
straightforward and desirable, implementation at sector
levels is rather complex and is a potentially conflict prone
process, where conflicts may arise between objectives
within a sector or between sectors and broad societal
objectives.

This paper explores how action on climate adaptation can
be taken forward in complex policy environments such as
that of the European Union. It explores the conditions for
successful policy integration and coherence, which are
considered to be crucially important for progressing with
climate adaptation.

O-3313-01

Integrated Trans-boundary Headwater
Governance in Hindu Kush Himalaya Under
Climate Change: A Coordinated Adaptation
Framework for Water, Food and Energy
Security in South Asia

PC. Tiwari (1)

(1) Kumaun University, Geography, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India

Hindu Kush Himalaya constitutes headwaters of some of the largest trans-boundary basins of planet. The ecosystem services, particularly the freshwater flowing down from the Himalayan headwaters sustain one-fourth global population dependent primarily on subsistence agriculture in Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Climate change has stressed hydrological regimes of Himalayan headwaters through higher mean annual temperatures, fast melting of glaciers and snow, altered precipitation patterns and increased incidences and intensity of extreme weather events causing substantial decrease in water availability and increasing frequency and severity of hydrological hazards. This may increase proportion of water, food, health and livelihood insecure population in entire South Asia which represents one of the most water stressed, food insecure and energy deficit regions, and inhabited by some of the poorest people of the world with access to less than 5% of planet's freshwater resources. This will have enormous regional implications for fundamental human endeavors ranging from poverty alleviation to environmental sustainability and climate change adaptation, and even to human security and peace in the region. A coordinated regional adaptation framework
is therefore highly imperative not only for responding to long-term impacts of climate change and achieving food, water and energy security, but also for attaining post 2015 Sustainable Developments Goals (SDGs) to provide social and economic sustainability to more than 40% global population living in the region.

The main objective of the study is to evolve a coordinated regional management framework underling the role and critical significance of Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) ecosystem services in sustaining food, water, and energy security in South Asia under climate change. In order to attain this study: (i) appraised the mutual environmental and economic benefits of integrated trans-boundary headwater management; (ii) investigated reasons and rationale for missing regional cooperation among riparian countries; (iii) explored geo-political constraints in initiating effective regional cooperation dialogue; (iv) evolved an institutional framework for effective trans-boundary headwater governance in Hindu Kush Himalaya through the analysis of secondary data collected from varied sources. Besides, comprehensive study of available literature and media reports, interpretation of people responses obtained through interviews, interaction with political leadership and policy planners, across Hindu Kush Himalayan countries formed the basis of this study. Study revealed that despite geographical and cultural contiguity South Asia is one of the geo-political hotspots as it is one of the most disintegrated regions of the world characterized by political tensions, armed conflict, and extreme political instability and economic imbalances. It was observed that political transition, threats of internal and external security, weak leadership, and long standing conflictual inter-state dynamics are important reasons for missing regional cooperation in trans-boundary water management and for freezing hydro-diplomacy in the region. Further, the results clearly indicated that the issues and challenges in the food, water, and energy sectors are interlinked in several complex ways and cannot be managed effectively without cross-sectoral integration and regional cooperation. The study also identified a range of important potential benefits of regional cooperation in integrated water resources which include: (a) sharing information for developing integrated flood forecasting and early warning system for different basins, (b) storing water in upstream river basins for flood moderation, (c) storing water resources for increasing flow in dry seasons, (d) accumulating water for inland water transport, (e) harnessing water resources to generate hydroelectricity, and (f) managing watersheds to help increase the quality and quantity of water available, irrigation, industries, oil, and sanitation by downstream users. A number of regional and local institutions, particularly International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are interested to play effective role in initiating regional water cooperation in South Asia.

## O-3313-02

# Coordinated Regional Adaptation to Sea Level Rise - A Case Study of Land Use and Transportation System

S. Shen (1)

(1) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Honolulu, France

In recent years, many research efforts have been made to study the impact of climate change, especially sea level rise, on transportation system at the local level. While these studies provide many useful insights for the vulnerability of transportation system to sea level rise, few analyzed the impacts of adaptation strategies (i.e. protection, accommodation, planned retreat) on transportation system. Furthermore, the diversity of study contexts, the variety of methods utilized, and the lack of standard evaluation metrics make it difficult to compare the results of different studies. Therefore, the interaction between adaptation strategies, corresponding long term land use change, and transportation system performance are not thoroughly studied. To bridge this research gap, three adaptation scenarios with different network disruption levels and land use schemes are analyzed using Tampa, Florida as a case study. Transportation system vulnerabilities to sea level rise under three scenarios are compared using multiple performance measures. Vehicle hours travelled (VHT) shows to be the most sensitive performance measure to transportation vulnerability

change. Without any adaptation strategies, the regional transportation system could have 40% VHT increase under 2ft sea level rise. Protecting up to 108 miles of freeway/bridges could prevent about 18% of VHT increase, while large scale traffic analysis zone internal capacity protection or development retreat have less than 2% contributions. Supposing the average value of travel time savings in Florida is $32 per hour, protecting up to 108 miles of freeway or bridges would generate a saving of more than $30 million per day. If the cost to elevate road is $2 million/mile, it takes about a week for the benefit to recover the cost. Consequently, even with neighborhood flood prevention and planned retreat strategies, protecting coastal freeways and important bridges would be necessary and cost-effective to adapt to sea level rise for the case study area. The results of the case study illustrate that communities outside the inundation zones or lowlying areas are also vulnerable to sea level rise because their activities are supported by critical infrastructures (i.e. transportation in this case study) within the inundation zones. Without long-term coordinated regional land use and transportation planning, adaptation strategies focus only on accommodating or relocating local vulnerable communities might not be effective at the regional level.

## O-3313-03

# Making adaptation policy integration work in local government: Lessons from Australia

H. Fuenfgeld (1); A. Macarthur, (2)

(1) RMIT University, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; (2) RMIT University, School of Global, urban and social studies / centre for urban research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Considering and planning for the impacts of climate change has entered the mainstream of local government policy level, yet much experimenting is still taking place about how adaptation can meaningfully and effectively be tied in with existing policy agendas and integrated into policy making, across departmental boundaries and organisational hierarchies. Over the past decade, there has been slow recognition that, from an organisational perspective, adaptation needs to be broadly anchored in an organisation; for adaptation to be effective and comprehensive, it cannot be simply be another task of environment departments or sustainability officers.

While many adaptation policy frameworks point to the need for such systematic and deep integration and recommend high-level actions, not many empirical studies exist that document the strategies that complex organisations pursue to embed adaptation, nor is there much empirical evidence assessing the success of specific strategies. While key barriers to integration are known, many organisations still struggle to make much progress with embedding adaptation across divisions, departments or operational units.

This paper presents, for the first time, empirical findings from two research projects concerned with embedding adaptation in the local government sector in Australia. The focus of the analysis is on intra-organisational processes for embedding adaptation across an organisation, although some inter-organisational strategies will also be highlighted. The local governments that participated in these research projects are highly exposed to multiple climatic stressors and their impacts, including sea-level rise, bushfire, flooding and heatwaves. They provide interesting case studies for adaptation policy development and implementation at the local government scale, adding to our understanding of the role of institutions in climate change adaptation.

## O-3313-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3313-01

# Regional climate change adaptation and mitigation in the North German Plain - a cross-sectoral analysis of land use experts' perception

T. Barkmann (1) ; R. Siebert (1) ; A. Lange (1)
# Adaptation to climate change in Tampere Region, Finland

## T. Frisk (1)

(1) Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Pirkanmaa, Environmental Information, Tampere, Finland

Adaptation to climate change will be one of the most important issues in the different regions of Europe. Adaptation plans cannot be made only internationally or nationally but local and regional authorities must have the main role responsibility for adaptation planning. One of the four main themes of the Climate and Energy Strategy of Tampere Region is adaptation to climate change. The purpose of this presentation is to deal with the aims and the proposed actions of adaptation in Tampere Region.

In the strategy, the main general aim of adaptation is that people and different organizations of the region are reserved to governance of climate change phenomena. The aim is that Impacts of climate change have been studied, their importance has been assessed and the most important actions of adaptation have been carried out in a cost-effective way, taking into account the aims of mitigation of climate change. Another aim is that awareness of the impacts of climate change and the need of adaptation has increased. It is important that people realize that the change is permanent and the threats and also the possibilities of the changes are taken into account. For achieving the general aims, six main actions have been acknowledged:

* Research is utilized and comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change is made, as well as risk analyses and considerations of vulnerability.

* Skills of ordinary people in adaptation and reservation to the impacts of climate change are improved.

* Proactive and cost-effective actions of adaptation are carried out in practice.

* Adaptation to climate change is taken into account in the Biodiversity Programme of Tampere Region.

* The Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Pirkanmaa (CETEP) is coordinating the cooperation in adaptation to climate change.

* In adaptation, the cooperation over the borders of the regions is considered.

More detailed aims have been presented for increased precipitation and humidity, increased temperature and extreme events. One of the main aims is that the risks of increased precipitation and humidity have been assessed and the most necessary actions have been carried out. Attention must be paid to the following issues for example: the amount of storm water and the capacity of sewerage systems, the condition of roads and streets, the increase of nutrient leaching from agricultural areas, regulation of lakes and rivers, and the impacts of increased humidity on houses and other constructions.

The main aims connected with increased temperature are that new animal and plant species (including cultivated plants and trees) can be utilized, harmful alien species are recognized and their distributions are monitored and restricted, and cooling of houses is carried out taking into account requirements of energy efficiency. Attention will also be paid the impacts of increased temperature on human health.

When extreme events are concerned, one of the main aims is that adaptation planning in the different sectors (local communes, industry, service, households) is sufficient. The other two main aims are that forecasts and informing about extreme events has improved and that the basic functions of society have been secured during more drastic and more often occurring extreme conditions.

For monitoring the proposed actions of the Climate and Energy Strategy of Tampere Region, a working group has been founded. The group is coordinated by CETEP and particular attention is paid to adaptation to climate change. The first report will be published in 2016.

Climate change is beyond dispute and a crucial challenge for mankind on the global scale as well as on the regional scale. In order to successfully implement adaptation and mitigation measures towards climate change on the regional scale, the involvement of regional land use experts is very important. Moreover, cross-sectoral interdependencies of adaptation and mitigation measures on the regional scale - both synergies and conflicts - have to be taken into consideration. One crucial requirement of a successful adaptation and mitigation concept is the analysis of those measures already implemented on a regional scale, including the appropriate spatial scale for measures taken. Furthermore, coping with climate change is a multi-level policy concern. Therefore, the appropriate level of political regulation, as assessed by regional land use experts, is an important element of the analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures.

In our study we applied a qualitative, cross-sectoral approach, primarily analysing which adaptation and mitigation measures are implemented or demanded on the regional scale in the land use sectors agriculture, forestry and water resource management. The results are derived from 60 semi-structured expert interviews conducted in four case study regions in the North German Plain as well as from a subsequent survey (n=37) amongst regional land use experts. Experts involved cover a wide range of land use experts, including farm managers, forestry experts and their respective interest groups, flood protection and water body maintenance specialists as well as representatives of regional administrative bodies.

Our results show that: (1) Even if Germany may not be as affected by climate change as other countries, a number of climate change induced adaptation measures are nevertheless already implemented, (2) further measures are taken into recognition or are demanded by regional land use experts, (3) adaptation measures play an important role on the regional scale whereas mitigation measures are almost negligible, (4) water-related issues respectively water management approaches and related measures are the linking elements between the analysed land use sectors in all case study regions and (5) in general, there is no particular spatial level favoured for the implementation of adaptation or mitigation measures. However, with regard to policy-makers' ability to exert influence on climate change related measures, the national scale is seen as the most effective level.

Our results implicate that the implementation of adaptation measures can be focussed on the regional scale, whereas efforts to mitigate climate change should be coordinated and implemented on the national or even global scale. Furthermore, cross-sectoral interdependencies between the analysed land use sectors can be shown. Therefore, an integrated, cross-sectoral approach should be further pursued, to combine the sectoral efforts to adapt to climate change, to generate synergies and to minimise conflicts.

In our study we also identified needs for further research. Whereas further analyses of interdependencies between different adaptation measures on the regional level seem to be fruitful, the analysis of regional mitigation measures is not sufficient at this point. There is further need for research on why the regional scale lacks mitigation measures and how to integrate those at the regional level. While the study's focus lies on those adaptation and mitigation measures clearly depicted as climate change related, other regional measures may also be linked to climate change. Though those were not included in our study, they should be considered in future analyses for a coherent approach. Also, further analyses on how to integrate sector-focused measures into a more comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach should be conducted.

The study was carried out within the research project "NaLaMa-nT- Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland" (Sustainable Land Management in the North German Plain) within the frame of the FONA program initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

<footnote>(1) Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Socio-Economics, Muencheberg, Germany</footnote>
## Flooding in the Urban Space: the Contribution and impact of law in relation to resilient Flood Risk Governance in the EU

### S. Homewood (1)

(1) Middlesex University, Law and Flood Hazard Research Centre, London, United Kingdom

This presentation will take an overview of one of the most important environmental issues affecting more than half of the world's population. How should environmental risk governance respond to climate change which is likely to have caused increasing problems of flooding in recent years and the increasing threat of flooding in the cities and urban spaces of the future? An important aspect of such governance arrangements is the impact and importance of a number of legal issues.

This paper will examine some of the law's response to the problems of the governance of flooding in England and make some comparisons with other EU Countries. This will include reference to the preliminary findings from the large 6 Million Euro EC funded STARFLOOD Research project on Flood Risk Management, with which the author and other colleagues are involved, together with 5 other European Universities.

## Promoting the consideration of the effects of climate change on Agriculture in Morocco

### A. Laouina (1)

(1) Faculty of Human sciences, Geography, Rabat, Morocco

The effort of adaptation to climate change must be involved in the fields of resource management and governance, by the research on the possible correlations between Climate change / Management of resources / efficiency of institutions responsible for these resources, in order to better respond to the questions posed and propose ways of adaptation capable to mitigate the negative effects of the current trends.

On the political level, because of the strong interactions of the three domains, climate water and environment, it is advantageous to opt for integrated actions, winning on several plans: reduce the vulnerability, conservation of resources, development of agriculture and guayart of water volume and quality.

Therefore propose measures with tangible effects, reform the decision-making process and place it on top of sector structures.

We can't overemphasize the importance of anticipation, ie, possess an elaborate knowledge, the result of advanced research, based on sufficient measures and studies. Careful planning is to be prepared, on the basis of a prospective based on reliable indicators. Finally, we must adopt policy choices and courageous management, by challenging truths that seemed established and proved, but recent studies seem to contradict.

Non integrated solutions with only a technical content can affect the consistency and efficiency of decisions and policies. It is necessary to collect sufficient data to validly base on the decisions and thus strengthen the links between scientific research and decision making. A sufficiently broad debate should take place to compare the values, perceptions, and views, to allow the decisions ownership by everybody. We must provide relevant and reliable scientific data and the results must be communicated to the general public and organizations, to ensure a sufficient level of awareness and commitment.

Adaptation is not exclusive to the most vulnerable farmers and most fragile lands. The rainfed land of the Atlantic plains of Morocco, considered as favorable, covered by large farms, in which aggregation of means permits to promote agriculture, and which are directed by conscious farmers, in principle, of the possible impacts of Climate change on the process of degradation, can suffer serious threats, especially because of the unexpected occurrence of large magnitude events. Irrigated land, either, are not immune to environmental crises, especially in case of

water stress. So we must be prepared for any eventualty and therefore adopt a crisis management policy in the event of occurrence of major risks.

An effective integration of climate change on agriculture, as in other sectors, implies the need for a clear commitment at the highest level of the state apparatus and ensures the contribution of the private and civil society to establish the conditions for the establishment and implementation of a structured and effective strategy.

## Climate change and necessary actions for Sahelian rural world. What choice and what measures for responsible authorities?

### A. Ndiaye (1); MB. Timera (1); SD. Badiane (1)

(1) Cheikh Ant Diop University, Geography, Dakar, Senegal

In the Sahel, rural populations are increasingly faced with a decline in agricultural production due to various inappropriate methods of production but also especially to the influence of climate change is manifested in the form of recurring hazards: droughts, floods, dry spells, the greater wind speed, etc. However, to ensure food security, more than 80% of rural depend on a hypothetical rainy winter, very disturbed in the course of its cycle. It follows strong pressure exerted on natural resources (Sivakumar, 1993; Servat et al 1997; Etc.).

These climatic disturbances that last for almost half century affected the bio-productive system and induces degradation. It appeared everywhere, the most degraded landscapes are those affected by overgrazing, agricultural pressure, where poor farming practices: the disappearance of fallow and lack of fertilizer supply has exacerbated the phenomenon (Preliminary Report of the FAO project «Land Degradation Assessment,» FAO-CSE, April 2003), etc.

Thus, disturbances occurred on climatic factors, will have notable effects on the lifestyles of the population and socio-economic activities. They are facing, at the same time, to constantly risk situations and high vulnerability due to the lack of resources available to them to face the multiple pressures.

A diagnosis based on a field visit in 2014, with a project from F.A.O. (collection of basic information: individual interviews and focus group interviews with facilitators and leaders of structures, etc.) in Senegal, Gambia, Burkina Faso and Mali, has identified and assess the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate change in relation to their livelihoods, to identify their roles and responsibilities but also those of the various technical and administrative services that support them in their fight against the effects of the phenomenon.

It appeared at the end of our research that, the main policy advice is that both addressing food and nutrition security and building resilience in vulnerable nations and communities require an integrated approach of investing in long term production enhancement interventions, but also short term price and climate risk management strategies. Investing in responsive and sustainable safety nets that will enhance food and nutrition security can thus reduce the impact of short term risk factors. Once risk and vulnerability are not factored, hazards may reverse progress made over some years in most fragile and vulnerable countries and communities.

It appeared too, that the active participation of all stakeholders, enabling the development of the strengths and potential of rural areas and thus the assertion of economic identity, social, historical and cultural populations could assure them the well-being so aspired. Furthermore, the challenges of climate change in the context of globalization, there were proven everywhere (Smart Village, Eco-villages, etc.) that local development, will, in the future, more than in the past, a sole key to play in ensuring a confirmed transformation of territories?

Ultimately, it will be discussed in the context of this paper, to succinctly analyze climate trends indispensable for socio-economic projections, to study the factors (internal and external) that exacerbate the vulnerability of farmers and finally to assess the relevance of options / more effective coping strategies in this sense the emergence of a local socio-economic consciousness and collective responsibility to build a regional project through an agreed methodology.
# Rethinking Coastal Design and Planning: Integrated SLR Vulnerability Assessments, Case of Mombasa and Lamu Islands

V. Ochanda (1)

(1) Wits University, Architecture and Planning, Johannesburg, South Africa

The world coastlines are increasing in population due to their natural beauty, tourist attraction of the luxurious coastal cities leading to ever larger populations, and a vast interest in developing infrastructure at coastal areas. Sea level rise (SLR) is threatening the sustainability of coastal residents as well as the related infrastructure, the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. The least developed countries have 14 per cent of their populations living in the LECZ compared with 10 per cent for the developed countries with the disparities widening in coastal urban areas at 21% and 11% respectively. Literature suggests that coastal cities in the developing world are ill prepared for the impacts arising from sea level changes and related storm surges. The Southern and Eastern African coastline (comprising the coasts of South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania and Kenya), will regularly be affected by changes in cyclonic and other significant weather events that pose risks related to the development and infrastructure in these related. The East African coastal islands of Mombasa and Lamu being relatively low elevated will become increasingly vulnerable to the associated risks of increasing SLR. Urban infrastructure development, use planning and design is most likely going to be impacted by the sea level rise on the coastal built environment, these factors along the coastline will require a rethinking of coastal design and planning especially with regards to Sea level rise (SLR). The main purpose of the integrated and participatory vulnerability assessment was to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in both the local government and communities. The distinctive features of perception and adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common objectives was to ascribe initial vulnerability levels for the coastal strip of Kenya in terms of the zones, assets, infrastructure, public services, people and activities, Use GIS-based tools and techniques to determine and map out the extent of inundation risk for Kenya's coastal strip based on localized modelling from global inundation scenarios of 1m, 3m, and 5m assessment, Appraise baseline sea level vulnerability awareness and perceptions through focus group discussions in order to understand the prevailing mitigation/adaptation practices and coping strategies now in place, co-creatively evolve intervention or mitigation policy options for subsequent action and implementation. In this case meaningful and Practical adaptations initiatives tend are enhanced when, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses. The important input was mainly the participation of the affected communities through the mini charrette on the concept of sea level rise, climate change and coastal adaptation and mitigation, especially in the context of the developing countries. The participation of the communities gave a great insight in the enhancement of the adaptation and mitigation strategies, and the absorption of climate change related mitigation and policy strategies for the two islands.

# Adapting to climate change through local planning: The Bolivian Andes

PL. Pacheco Mollinedo (1) ; AL. Gonzales Carrasco (2) ; C. Carafa (1)

(1) Agua Sustentable, Climate Change Adaptation, la Paz, Bolivia; (2) Agua Sustentable, Climate change, La Paz, Bolivia

The manifestations of climate change contribute to increasing threats to national development strategies. Every year more intense extreme weather impact on natural and human systems; impacting on the social and economic development in the Bolivian Altiplano. Studies by the National Climate Change Program in Bolivia (1997) and SENAMHI (1998), predict future climate scenarios in

Central Altiplano of Bolivia, where variations in the cycle of rainfall and temperature increases with consequences of aridity.

Faced with this problem, there is an urgent need to build a solid foundation of scientific information, develop skills and knowledge management under which it will explore and identify the best options and tools for effective response to the impacts of climate change variability using appropriate instruments as the rescue of knowledge, mathematical modeling, mapping rights, spatial tools, etc. To achieve this solid base of information, provide information to decision makers on the most effective use and the most appropriate destination of public investment funds and strengthen the governance structure to adapt to climate change.

An adaptation plan should address policy guidelines and adaptation to climate change in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities. In general, the policies relate to the objectives and the means of implementation, while the measures focus on actions to specific topics.

The construction of such a plan is based on social learning processes, methods and developed, adapted and tested for Sustainable Water tools, where both men and women in the communities participating in activities from the accompanying research, information gathering and building community action adaptation action plan and regional adaptation and analysis of lessons learned and planning.

Through the processes described, a methodological approach based on sequential flows in simultaneous integrated actions in three fundamental axes parallel builds, which feed off each other (1) research, 2) Spaces of public climate deliberation and advocacy and 3) Planning and investments for adaptation.

The applied, collaborative and participatory work of local actors is the key in vulnerability analysis locally and expanding to a regional analysis as well as in identifying adaptation options to climate change, some of which are re-evalued as traditional or ancestral forms of water management and some as new initiatives that are found from the research.

On the other hand, the second axis are social spaces of public deliberation. It is under this axis where the dissemination of knowledge for capacity building and strengthening of works by promoting a roundtable of the basin where the actors are the same, both civilian and public. Finally, the focus of investment planning for adaptation is at the base of solutions to address climate variability and change tools built from the negotiating Regional Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change.

To meet future challenges involving climate variability and response to the necessary a permanent improvement of the planning system (plans, programs, projects) to which this proposal raises contribute to the development of their own capabilities of the governors on the issue of adaptation. The principles of good governance imply that adaptation schemes are aimed at consensus, joint planning, effective, efficient, accountable, transparent, flexible, equitable, inclusive and law-abiding. These are basic principles to be considered to achieve reliable processes and establish legitimate institutions that lead to effective adaptation measures.

* Adaptation planning does not need to be separated aside the already known planning development actions at local levels.

* Adaptation capacities of the municipalities can be improved by better allocating the funds for adaptation actions argued by the big losses after no adaptation

Municipalities can plan adaptation actions and level up those to the Programs for development at the Regional and National level.

# Dynamic coherence of risk management and adaptation strategies in cities

R. Schwarze (1)

(1) Helmholtz-Center for Environmental Research, Economics, Leipzig, Germany
Decision—making in cities has a specific temporal character. It ranges from mainstreaming existing urban infrastructures and planning and more immediate measures to increasing the adaptive capacity of cities, to long-term transformations of urban living and design. Scaling urban challenges of CCA in time strongly relates to the analysis of risk management and adaptation needs, measures and actions. Much knowledge is already available on the impacts of climate change and natural hazards on different sectors in cities and on associated existing vulnerabilities and risks, and many sector-specific CCA and DRM options are available. However,

the existing methods and tools have not been studied for dynamic coherence. This paper displays the structure of risk management and adaptation need in short term direct and indirect cross-sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities and risks of climate change, mid term levels of preparedness of cities (adaptive capacity) for these impacts, and robust long-term urban sustainability transformations for challenges going beyond existing adaptive capacities. It also covers the role of the private sector in short and long-term urban resilience programmes, with a special focus on municipal climate and resilience finance.

# 3314 - Innovate for addressing climate change challenges: examples from different industries

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3314-01

#### Pioneers into Practice: initiatives for entrepreneurs

##### A. Thomas (1)

(1) Director RIC, Climate-KIC

Abstract not communicated

### O-3314-01

#### Producing pulp and paper in 2050: from incremental improvements to breakthrough technologies

##### B. De Galembert (1)

(1) Confederation of European Paper Industries, Brussels, Belgium

When the European Commission announced in 2011 its ambition to reduce the EU carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, the European pulp and paper sector, represented by the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI), decided on its way to achieve that ambition. After the publication of its own roadmap, specifying the ways and conditions for the paper sector to reduce its own emissions by 80% and complementing it with an ambition to increase the creation of value in the sector by 50%, CEPI launched an open-innovation process to identify concrete technologies to reduce the carbon impact of the industry. The process was called "the Two Team Project".

In November 2012, 2 teams composed of paper company representatives, experts from suppliers to the paper industry, scientists and researchers, free thinkers started to compete in identifying disruptive technologies to make pulp and paper differently and with much less energy and carbon emissions. Since the project was a competition, a pre-jury, followed by a jury had to choose a winning concept out to the eight that have been submitted by the teams. They assessed the concepts on the basis of 5 objective criteria, primarily on the contribution to the carbon emissions' reduction, but also on the contribution to value creation, the feasibility of the idea, the conditions for success, as well as the overall innovativeness of the idea.

In November 2013, a winning concept was unveiled by Connie Hedegaard, at the time European Commissioner for climate action. Since then, consortia to further develop the concepts and carry out the needed research have been established.

Among the 8 concepts for breakthrough technologies in pulp and paper making identified by the teams, 5 are listed below.

1. Deep Eutectic Solvent for pulp making - the winning concept - is an adaptation of a natural phenomenon known from plant metabolism. Glucose-based DES can dissolve wood and extract in a selective manner cellulose, lignin and hemicellulose, hence allowing their use to produce different products. The dissolving process takes place at low temperature and atmospheric pressure. By using DES, the European industry can secure a low-carbon (~20%) and low-energy (~40%) production of pulp and use the other

components in bio-based products or sell them to other industries.

2. Making paper with less water and no longer using the current energy-intensive drying techniques is feasible. The concept builds on the blowing of dry fibre into highly turbulent steam and the sheet formation by flash condensation combined with steam expansion, hence requiring a thousandth of the usual water consumption. The industry can reduce its energy needs by 20% and its CO2 emissions by 50%.

3. The current paper drying technique via heated cylinders leads to evaporating water by using air as a heat carrier. Increasing temperature and humidity towards "pure vapour" allows using this "superheated steam" instead of air as heat carrier. With this, large amounts of heat can be recovered and recycled. Using superheated steam for drying would deliver 25% energy reduction and up to 50% CO2 emissions reduction.

4. The use of a very highly consistent fibre input in the headbox requires the fibre to be placed into a very viscous environment to avoid flocculation, while protecting it from shear. The sheet formation is then achieved by pressing the dry pulp components, which takes away 80% of the viscous component, and is followed by a curing technique to obtain a dry sheet. Energy demand is here reduced by 25% and CO2 emissions by 55%.

"Supercritical" is a stage where CO2 is neither a liquid nor a gas reached by combining a certain pressure and a certain temperature. Supercritical CO2 would allow drying paper in an autoclave much less energy and therefore CO2 emissions. It provides the additional benefit of extracting contaminants in the recycling process. Ideally, the mill CO2 emissions could be the needed resource to run the autoclaves (carbon capture and use). The energy demand is expected to decrease by 25% and the CO2 emission by 45%.

The CEPI Two Team process has shown to be successful in showing that an open-innovation process can deliver realistic and disruptive concepts, provided the enabling conditions have been put in place.

### O-3314-02

#### (Con)Fusing Durability Performance of Reinforced Concrete Structures with Environmental Sustainability

##### O. Alao (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Department of Civil Engineering, New Engineering Building, Cape Town, South Africa

##### INTRODUCTION

Concrete is one of the most extensively consumed human-made material. The annual global consumption of concrete in 2013 was estimated at 25 billion tons per year, which implied a 900% increase in concrete consumption in comparison with that of 1950. The reasons for concrete's significant use may be attributed to its numerous benefits which include its versatility, affordability and its ability to be engineered to suit desired performance. The consumption of concrete continues to increase with increasing world population and rate of urbanization. The world population is estimated to be about 7 billion, which is a 40% increase from the 1990 population statistic and it is projected to rise to 9 billion by the year 2050. Furthermore, with future projections of urbanization to reach 67% in 2050 from 36
% in 1950, it is expected that there will be a consequent rise in concrete demand for infrastructure development.

However, the continued use of concrete in massive quantities has significant effects on the sustainability of the environment. Firstly, the production of cement, one of the main constituents of concrete, is responsible for 7% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Secondly, the annual aggregate and water consumption for concrete production are estimated to be at about 9 billion and 1 billion tons respectively. The massive use of natural resources by the concrete construction industry is environmentally unsustainable.

Concrete is usually used as a composite material with embedded steel reinforcements because of its limited tensile force resistance. The total amount of concrete produced annually goes towards the construction of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. RC structures are prone to inevitable, time dependent ageing after construction. Hence, during their service-life repair or rehabilitation become imminent. Repair and maintenance of such structures may involve concrete patching, or in the cases of failure, reconstruction resulting in further consumption of raw materials. Statistical data on the quantity of additional raw materials consumed during infrastructure repair may not exist, however, about R 11.8 billion (US$ 1.1 billion) is required annually in South Africa for the repair and maintenance of 8,246 bridges and culverts.

### MAKING CONCRETE SUSTAINABLE & DURABLE

* Zero percent cement concrete production

The removal of PC use in concrete production is also currently been advocated for by sustainability researchers. 0% cement concrete is also referred to as geopolymer concrete and contains no PC in its production as the name implies. The concept 'geopolymer' has been in use since the 1950s but it was used to refer to alkali-activated clay-based binders in the 1970s. Geopolymers are used as an alternative to PC because of low CO2 component compared with PC production.

* Use of supplementary cementitious materials

The use of SCMs to partially replace plain PC is common because of the associated benefits with their use, which generally relates to improved economic durability, performance and sustainability properties. Binders that have chloride binding content such as fly ash (FA), ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) and condensed silica fume reduce the permeability of concrete.

## CONCLUSION

The design of durable concrete for a sustainable environment must encompass the use of recycled and by-product materials, low energy requirement for cement production, low CO2 emissions from concrete production and ensure low incurred costs from maintenance. This is possible through the removal or substitution of PC in concrete production and by understanding and adequately designing for the RC structures the service environment.

### O-3314-03

## Dealing with the Aviation Challenge

### P. Mcmanners (1)

(1) University of Reading, Geography, Reading, United Kingdom

Aviation is a growing source of carbon dioxide emissions and an enabler of the global economy leading to a polarised debate about the economic benefits versus the environmental impact. This makes the sector a barometer of the world's willingness to change economic models to deliver climate change mitigation. Currently aviation is outside the UNFCCC framework, with work on developing a way forward delegated to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Aspirational targets have been proposed by the ICAO to limit net emissions based on a combination of shifting to bio fuel and market-based measures. However there are no plans to limit gross emissions which are expected to more than double by 2050. The research reported in this presentation has identified a way forward which requires moving away from fast-jet technology, except for an expensive First and Business Class service. Affordable flying will be on a new design of efficient and relatively slow air vehicle. Interviews with stakeholders found that passengers were generally content with the proposed changes and environmentalists were enthusiastic to shift from opposing flying to supporting the low-carbon model. Industry outside aviation was also willing to embrace the new model and focus on thinking through how they would adjust operations to suite. However, resistance was encountered from the two prime players, the aviation industry and government. The aviation industry was concerned at the impact on their business; concurring with the research which indicated that parts of the industry are likely to be bankrupted. Governmental actors did not foresee aviation coming high enough up policy priorities for them to expend political capital on taking action. In conclusion, there is a bright future for low-carbon aviation but the demand for change will have to come from society to bring the future of aviation onto the political radar so that politicians agree the policy changes required to force a reluctant industry to respond.

# 3315 - Energy Innovation for Climate Change: systems approaches and societal responses

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3315-01

#### The need for energy innovation: chair's introduction

**J. Skea (1) ; M. Hannon (1)**

(1) Imperial College London, Centre for Environmental Policy, London, United Kingdom

Current energy technologies available to the market at scale are not capable of reducing CO2 emissions to levels compatible with achieving the UNFCCC goal of limiting global warming to 2°C. The last decade has seen a significant up of both public and private sector energy RD&D efforts, but these have yet to reach the levels required to achieve climate policy goals. Indeed, much of the private sector effort will have the effect of extending the potential fossil fuel resource base leading to potential policy dilemmas.

Against this background, the objectives of the chair's introduction are to: identify the needs for investment in energy RD&D; identify patterns of investment in R&D in

both the public and private sectors; identify investment priorities and methods for establishing them; and consider what institutional frameworks and policy instruments will be most conducive to innovation that will help the achievement of a low-carbon transition. Energy innovation systems now transcend national boundaries due to international co-operation, the mobility of human capital and the activities of multinational companies. These factors will be sketched to help frame the session Energy Innovation for Climate Change: systems approaches and societal responses.

### K-3315-02

#### A Systemic Approach to Assess Energy Technology Innovation

**A. Grubler (1)**

(1) IIASA, Transitions to New Technologies, Luxemburg, Austria

A systemic framework to assess energy technology innovation efforts, the Energy Technology Innovation Systems (ETIS), is outlined. ETIS describes innovation activities within both a systems perspective of all phases of a technology's life cycle (R&D to maturity/
obsolescence) as well as all components of energy systems from supply to end-use. Within these two system boundaries innovation activities are assessed across four dimensions that represent critical inputs as well as outputs of innovation activities: knowledge generation, resource mobilization, and actor/institutional network build-up as innovation inputs, as well as improvements in technology characteristics (feasibility, performance, costs) as innovation outputs.

The ETIS framework is used to assess current global innovation efforts for climate mitigation concluding that current innovation portfolios are highly biased, resource allocation and policy focus are misaligned, as well as actor and institutional mobilization insufficiently globalized to provide for an effective innovation system that can generate and diffuse required innovations in improved resource efficiency and low-carbon technologies. Selected quantitative examples underpin the assessment presented that emerged out of work conducted within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).

## K-3315-03

### Stakeholder engagement in innovation and deployment

C. Mcclachlan (1); S. Mander (1)

(1) University of Manchester, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom

Low carbon energy systems will require significant infrastructural transformations involving both novel technologies and new configurations of existing technologies. However, stakeholder "opposition" is a frequently cited barrier to such change. Framing our research with a brief rejection of the usefulness and validity of the dominant concept of Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) in understanding different stakeholder positions, we draw on numerous research projects on low carbon energy siting controversy that have been undertaken at in the Tyndall Centre Manchester, UK. This body of research, undertaken over a decade, examines the local enactment of national policies, demonstrating that it is in this local deployment of technologies that the particular constellations of normative goals and power relationships come in to sharp focus. Such deployment can act as catalyst for local stakeholders to engage with, and challenge, the desirability of the dominant energy system or novel technologies for the first time. This presentation will emphasise the socio-political nature of energy infrastructure and services, and will explore societal responses to, and engagement with, such significant changes. Issues identified and discussed by stakeholders have included: what social goals are driving policy and are these appropriate. Who are the winners and losers and what power do they have? Whose interests are protected within official impact assessments and whose are not? What kind of society does a particular energy system support or challenge?

We use case study material to explore a range of themes at the deployment stage of energy technologies and set the scene for other panel contributions which focus more on the role (and potential role) of stakeholders in determining the overarching shape of the energy system. We draw together insights from a range of disciplines addressing common themes in low carbon energy controversies such as: different interpretations of impacts and benefits; governance, consultation and engagement activities; the role of governments and businesses. In particular we draw on recent and current projects on smart grids and future energy system resilience. Exploring, for example, the impact on deployment of tensions between the visions of 'ideal' consumers used by designers and engineers to shape technology and the more messy reality of everyday energy consumption. A case study of siting a CO2 pipeline in the Tyndall Centre, Manchester, UK, is presented. We also explore the role of stakeholders, and in particular how to reconcile expressed desire for communication and engagement with a lack participation in the activities offered. Here, we find that different types and levels of engagement will be suitable for different individuals, information materials need to be tailored to different audiences and opportunities to engage should be provided through a variety of channels and methods.

We argue that there is a need to more closely examine the social assumptions within both positive and negative accounts of low carbon energy technologies and systems, as this allows for the source of controversy to be more fully understood and a wider range of ways of developing support for particular transitions to be developed. Finally,

to close the presentation and frame the following panel discussion, we will reflect on the implications of our findings for those trying to deliver transitions in the energy system, particularly in the context of calls for these transitions to be achieved more rapidly.

## O-3315-01

### Fuel du Jour: Cutting through alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation

N. Melton (1); J. Axsen (2); D. Sperling (3)

(1) Navius Research Inc., Vancouver, Canada; (2) Simon Fraser University, Resource and environmental management, Vancouver, Canada; (3) University of California, Davis, Institute of transportation studies, Davis, United States of America

Achieving global climate mitigation objectives requires a substantial shift to alternative fuels such as electricity, hydrogen or biofuels for road transport. Over the past three decades, government, industry and others have repeatedly been swept up with the «fuel du jour» phenomenon, believing that a particular alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) technology will succeed in replacing conventional gasoline powered vehicles. However, despite numerous periods of hype AFVs are not yet being adopted at rates sufficient to achieve deep decarbonization. The dynamics of hype and disappointment are exemplified by the ambitious statements of US presidents. For example, in 1989 President George H.W. Bush announced an Executive Order requiring 500,000 methanol vehicles to be produced by 1996. Over a decade later, President George W. Bush declared a goal of making cellulosic ethanol practical and competitive within six years. And in 2011, President Barack Obama made a goal of having one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. Despite each period of hype being associated with an upswing of attention, expectations and innovation, none of these goals have been met.

Our study builds on existing science, technology and innovation research to improve awareness about the extent of hype and disappointment cycles for AFV technologies. This research has implications for all sectors where emerging technologies are important for mitigating climate change. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) identify periods of AFV hype and disappointment by examining trends in societal attention and innovation, 2) explore the ways in which governments participate in and/or contribute to hype by examining funding, policy and political enablers, 3) identify options for minimizing the negative effects of hype on the decarbonization of road transport. To accomplish these objectives, we analyze mass media, prototype and funding data between 1980 and 2013 for all major AFV technologies.

Hype begins with a technology breakthrough (e.g. the discovery of a new fuel cell manufacturing process) or a policy trigger (e.g. an increase in funding for fuel cell research) that attracts interest at that technology. Innovation actors such as scientists, industry and governments then communicate technological promises in order to attract attention and resources. Hype can play an important role in supporting successful innovation activities, but excessive hype increases the chance of failure. Unfulfilled promises and expectations undermine the reputation of new technologies and their developers, hamper resource mobilization and may lead to the abandonment of innovation activities.

Our research identifies and describes numerous cycles of AFV hype and disappointment, starting with methanol and natural gas in the late 1980s, moving through plug-in electric vehicles in the mid 1990s, and then turning to hybrid-electric, hydrogen and biofuels in the early 2000s. These cycles are cyclical and are particularly high (although not for the first time). We show how automotive firms, policy makers and politicians have touted the benefits of each of these AFV technologies at different times, only to lose interest and turn attention to the next technology when initial expectations fail to be met.

While some degree of hype is desirable for stimulating interest and investment in new technologies, the extreme and typically unrealistic promises related to AFVs are contrary to an efficient transition to low-carbon transportation. For policymakers seeking to induce such a transition, it therefore seems prudent to take steps to mitigate the negative impacts of hype and implement
effective policy that is relatively immune to disappointment
cycles. To accelerate the adoption of low carbon
technologies, we suggest that policymakers: 1) set realistic
goals for AFV market penetration, 2) implement strong
and consistent policies to achieve desired penetration
(i.e., technology agnostic policy focused on environmental
damages), and 3) establish institutional capacity to
inform expectations via technology assessment. These
recommendations are likely applicable to other sectors
in particular low carbon technologies is important for
achieving climate mitigation objectives.

O-3315-02

What role for climate negotiations on tech-
nology transfer?

M. Glachant (1); A. Dechezeplère (2)

(1) MINES ParisTech, Paris, France; (2) Grantham Research Institute - London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom

Technology has been an important topic of international
climate change negotiations since the adoption of the
United Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992
in which the parties committed themselves to "promote and
cooprate in the development, application and diffusion,
including transfer, of technologies". North-to-South
technology transfer has been given a particularly high
importance since technologies have so far been mostly
developed in industrialized countries, but are urgently
required to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in
emerging economies where the bulk of future emission
increases are expected.

Little progress has been made, however, in the climate negotiations on these issues. The only significant result to date is the establishment of a Technology Mechanism in 2010 in Cancun. It consists in two coordination bodies - the Climate Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Center and Network (CTC&N) - the role of which is to elaborate and implement practical solutions to boost technology transfer and technology diffusion towards developing countries.

In this paper, we argue that this apparent lack of success
has had little negative consequences on international
technology diffusion until now. We even offer the perhaps
controversial view that climate negotiations should continue
to neglect technology issues.

We provide evidence that, despite the absence of progress on these issues, North - South technology transfer of climate change mitigation technologies has dramatically increased in the last twenty years. This has mostly concerned emerging economies which are now reasonably well connected to international technology flows. This is good news as these are the countries where most of emission increases are expected to occur in the near future. In contrast, least developed countries appear to have remained excluded from international technology flows. This evidence is based on an up-to-date analysis of the climate-related technology transfer landscape, based on a combination of patent data, bilateral trade data and foreign investment data. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that such a comprehensive database on climate-related technology transfer has been assembled. Existing studies have not provided a complete picture of climate change mitigation technology transfer et al. 2011). This evolution has mainly been driven by the growing integration of emerging economies to the global economy, as technological knowledge mostly crosses borders though the international trade of capital goods and Foreign Direct Investments. Similarly, the fact that least-developed countries remain outside is explained by their little participation in the recent economic globalization.

What, then, should be the priority for international
coordination on technology diffusion in the future? In the
case of emerging economies, there is no reason to think
that they will not continue to effectively absorb foreign
technologies. In this group, certain laggards - South Asia and
India in particular - will benefit from a growing participation
in economic globalization. This suggests a limited role
for the Technology Mechanism which should essentially
provide local private and public actors with information
to facilitate coordination (e.g. through technology needs
assessment). In parallel, there is no reason to transfer
the international regulation of market mechanisms - in
particular, trade rules and Intellectual Property - from the
World Trade Organization to the UNFCCC.

The situation of least-developed countries is paradoxical.
On the one hand, it is more critical as they do not import
green technologies; on the other hand, there is less
urgency to deal with the problem as their contribution to
global emissions will remain limited in the near future. In
these countries, the priority is then to build technological
capacities and to promote their integration into the global
economy. In fact, the problem to be solved is very general:
the economic under-development of certain countries and
regions, in particular, is believed to have a negative
impact on the UNFCCC. It might not be the adequate forum to deal with what,
esentially, appears as a development issue rather than a
climate change-related problem.

O-3315-03

Engaging stakeholders towards low car-
bon energy technology deployment

P. Ashworth (1)

(1) University of Queensland, School of Social Sciences,
Brisbane, Australia

No. 3315 Innovation, Technology Deployment and Policies
FOR TYNDALL CENTRE SESSION

Like many technologies, deployment of low carbon energy technologies is a contested topic that often divides communities that previously may have coexisted harmoniously. As a result, community engagement and citizen participation have become important, if not essential components of the climate change - low carbon energy landscape. With the overriding aim of community engagement being to involve community members in decisions or policy making that is likely to affect them now or in the future (Keeney 1998), there has been a move away from the traditional one-way, top down approach to one that is far more inclusive. At the same time there has been an increase in the research literature - theoretical frameworks and models - that relate to this topic as governments and industry internationally are being held to account for their actions by their constituents and impacted communities. For example, much has been written about participatory technology assessment (pTA). Huijts, Molin and Steg (2012) proposed a framework for technology assessment with a focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS). The framework emerged from both the pTA literature and psychological theories. They have subsequently tested and refined the framework using hydrogen refueling as their example. Key elements of their framework that influence decisions to support a technology include attitudes social norms, perceived behavioural control and personal norm. Other components include procedural and distributive fairness, perceived risks and benefits and trust. Similarly, Hall, Ashworth and Devine-Wright (2013) examined key themes that arose from an examination of seven case studies of wind farm deployment. From the qualitative interviews four common themes emerged which included trust, distributional and procedural justice and place attachment. The researchers argued that with out addressing these factors into policy development and engagement approaches wind energy is likely to be deployed for meeting new renewable energy targets. There are similar results reported for the range of low carbon energy technologies such as nuclear, geothermal, CCS and so on. Despite the similarities and overlaps across the frameworks, models and case studies successfully reflect the characteristics of the technologies. In some cases out of reach. This panel discussion will examine how the requirements for ensuring procedural and distributive justice, trust and place attachment can be met. It will also discuss responses to questions such as: Who should be included in engagement activities? What process will be used to engage? How do you ensure the process is fair? What are the components of trust? How do you evaluate success?

O-3315-04

The role of public-private partnerships
in energy innovation and technology
development

I. Azevedo (1) ; I. Azevedo (2)

(1) Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy,
Pittsburgh, PA, United States of America; (2) Carnegie-Mellon
University, Department of engineering and public policy,
Pittsburgh, United States of America
In order to transition to a low carbon, sustainable, energy system globally and avoid potentially dramatic effects from climate change, the work needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by roughly an order of magnitude.

Existing technologies and strategies, such as using energy more efficiently, scaling up of renewables, the use of nuclear and a short-term transition to natural (ensuring low leakage rates), and deployment of carbon capture and sequestration will be necessary to help with such transition.

However, there is a continuous need for innovation to help achieve these goals at lower costs. This brings us to a conundrum: the returns on public and private R&D investments and other policies (such as a carbon price or tax; production tax credits, feed-in tariffs, among others) may require a large number of policies to curb the costs of climate mitigation strategies are multifaceted uncertain problems. Namely, uncertainty arises regarding 1) what will be the outcomes in terms of technology breakthroughs or improvements associated with R&D investments or other policy mechanisms that are implemented to promote innovation? 2) when will these technology breakthroughs or improvements occur and how to deal with the uncertainty regarding the timeline of such improvements? 3) if these breakthroughs or improvements occur, how fast or slow will the diffusion process be across different regions?

To address this issues requires both retrospective assessments of what outcomes have different policies and R&D investments delivered so far, as well as a forward looking perspective to enable us to make decisions for climate and energy decision under deep uncertainty.

In this talk, I will start with a retrospective analysis with the evidence from the literature regarding the outcomes of R&D investments and other policies on technology innovation and deployment in several regions of the work. In particular, I will provide examples regarding the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) program, the production tax credits and the renewable portfolio standard in the United States, and regarding the feed-in tariffs (and other similar policies) in many of the European Union countries, and finally assessing also the outcomes of incentives provided to wind and solar innovators in China.

While understanding the outcomes of previous policies on innovation is already a challenging task, a forward looking assessment is an even more daunting and humbling exercise: forecasts of how the energy system is likely to be shaped in the future has been proven to be quite poor, and any decision framework will be plagued by deep uncertainty. I will outline a methods that provides insight on the quality of forecasts for energy quantities and prices, and suggest a framework on how this information could be used to help identify the needs for investment in energy RD&D and to avoid "dead ends", identify investment priorities and methods for establishing them; and consider what institutional frameworks and policy instruments will be most conducive to innovation that will help the achievement of a low-carbon transition.

Key references:
*Global Energy Assessment, (2012). "Chapter 16: Trends and transitions in energy systems". International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Horner, N. Azevedo, I.L., Hounshell, D. (2013). Effects of government incentives on wind innovation in the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 8: 044032.; Rhodes, A., Skea, J., Hannon, M. 2014. The Global Surge in Energy Innovation. Energies ISSN 1996-1073; Rubin, E., Azevedo, I.L., Yeh, S., Jaramillo, P., How to improve modelling approaches to represent the future costs of energy technologies? Reviewing the findings from learning curves from energy technologies, submitted to Energy Policy in December 2014. Pena, I., Azevedo, I.L., Ferreira, L. M. Was it Worth It? A Review of Portuguese Wind Policies and Technology Diffusion, submitted to Energy Policy 2014.; Lam, L., Branstetter, L., Azevedo, I.L. The Emergence of the Chinese Solar PV and Wind Turbine Industries, submitted to Journal of Environmental Economics and Management in 2014.; Pena-Cabra, I., Azevedo, I.L., (2014) Economics analysis on the profitability of wind in Portugal between 1992 and 2010, Energy Economics, 45: 353-363.

Modelling Malaysia's Potential for Deployment of Biomass for Bioenergy in the Power Sector

DR. Abu Bakar (1); G. Anandarajah, (1); P. Ekins (1)
(1) Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom

Biomass is a primary source of renewable energy and accounted for about 10% of the total global primary energy supply in 2008. The Special Report of the IPCC on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) suggested that the potential bioenergy deployment levels of biomass for bioenergy by 2050 could be in the range of 100-300 EJ, a substantial potential that could contribute to the global total primary energy supply. In the context of developing countries, this work is aimed to assess the future role of bioenergy in the power sector in Malaysia, focusing on power generation capacity and its utilisation under the scope of energy system framework analysis using TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) Model. The model is used to simulate scenarios based on bioenergy implementation under a number of national policies and action plans against a reference base scenario. The biomass-based electricity promotion policies are contained in its National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan (2012-2050) and the National Key Economic Area (NKEA) for Palm Oil Sector under the Economic Transformation Programme. Simulations conducted include increasing biomass-based electricity production from palm oil mills under the NKEA Programme and other agricultural residue use in electricity generation. The results indicate that implementation of the NKEA programme is the most critical factor to achieve the bioenergy and environmental targets; both in terms of electricity generation capacity and in CO2 avoidance.

Grey water treatment by slanted soil system under real conditions in rural area

H. Amadou (1)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, Research Direction, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

The Performance of the slanted soil for grey water was evaluated in light of required water quality of irrigation reuse. This study aimed to assess the treatment performance of grey water system by slanted soil and check the possibility of reuse this water treated in irrigation. The greywater was collected every week in two pilot families in "Kologondiésse" village. The levy was made at the input and output of grey water in the treatment system and the storage tank points. Samples were submitted to physicochemical and microbiological analysis. Following changes to the treatment system, it is expected a strong improvement of purifying performance of this system. The results of this survey showed a very good purification performance of organic matters up to 89.78% for suspended solids (SS), 86.75% for chemical oxygen demand (COD) and 87% for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). Regarding the reduction of bacterial pollution, the obtained results are greater to those of previous studies with 2.48 μg, 3.33 μg and 1.99 μg respectively for E. coli, coliforms and enterococci. These results are slightly higher than the standards of reuse in irrigation.

Community Investment in Wind Farms: Funding Structure Effects in Wind Energy Infrastructure Development

J. Beery (1); J. Day, (2)
(1) The University of Melbourne, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia; (2) The University of Melbourne, Faculty of architecture, building and planning, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia

Wind energy development is an increasingly popular form of renewable energy infrastructure in rural areas.
Communities generally receive socioeconomic benefits accrue to that community funding structures are preferable to corporate structures, yet lack supporting quantitative data to inform energy policy. This study uses the Everpower wind development, to be located in Midwestern Ohio, as a hypothetical modeling environment to identify and examine socioeconomic impact trends arising from corporate, community and diversified funding structures. Analysis of five National Renewable Energy Laboratory Jobs and Economic Development Impact models incorporating local economic data and review of relevant literature were conducted. The findings suggest that community and diversified funding structures exhibit 40 to 100 percent higher socioeconomic impact levels than corporate structures. Prioritization of funding sources and retention of federal tax incentives were identified as key elements. The incorporation of local shares was found to mitigate the negative effects of foreign private equity local debt financing, increased economic output and opportunities for private equity investment were identified. The results provide the groundwork for energy policies focused to maximize socioeconomic impacts, while creating opportunities for inclusive economic participation and improved social acceptance levels fundamental to the deployment of renewable energy technology.

## P-3315-04

### Dew collection for water supply in Valparaiso, Chile

D. Carvajal (1) ; D. Muaya Raynoz (2) ; N. Guajardo Ramirez (1) ; C. Carlesi Jara (1)

(1) Universidad Católica de Valparaiso, Escola de engineeria química, Valparaiso, Chile; (2) University of Edinburgh, School of geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

The availability of fresh water has become a serious problem in arid and semiarid areas of the world. There are large areas in the world, mainly in arid or semi-arid climate, with chronic shortages of fresh water, which has been aggravated consequence of climate change, population growth, and a рiciplarized demand for industrial water. The demand for fresh water is constantly growing, vast areas that historically had no problems with availability of fresh water, have become areas with intermittent water shortages or even permanent. The problem of water shortage has been acute in Chile, particularly in the north and increasingly in the central area, affected by the intensive use of water in agriculture mainly. As a consequence of the problem of water scarcity, various technologies have been developed. The problem is not only fresh water from conventional sources such as rivers or groundwater, but also unconventional sources such as seawater treatment through processes such as distillation, reverse osmosis, nano-filtration and electro-dialysis, and from the atmosphere as is the case of fog precipitation and dew collection based on radiative cooling.

Dew formation by radiative cooling occurs when a solid surface radiates heat into sky causing its temperature becomes lower than the dew point of the water vapor contained in the surrounding air, causing condensation (liquid water). This condition usually occurs during cool nights with high relative humidity, low cloud cover and moderate or low wind speed. Once the condensation process occurs, the liquid water may be collected by natural drainage on an inclined surface (by gravity) and then stored in tanks. The water produced by the system may have uses such as irrigation or human consumption (pre purification treatment if necessary).

This work aims to assess experimentally the dew water collection based on radiative cooling using galvanized steel sheets as radiative surface. Experimental tests were carried out in the city of Valparaiso, which is located in the central coast of Chile. The amount of dew water produced was experimentally quantified, and the quality of dew water produced in the test location was analysed. The testing location included five experimental units (modules), each of which consist of galvanized steel sheets with zinc-aluminium, supported by a steel frame. Each sheet was thermally insulated on its back by Styrofoam. The sheets were coated with a paint containing an additive infra-red emitting minerals (TiO2 and BaSO4) in the atmospheric window, and a non-soluble surfactant that render the surface more hydrophilic (manufactured by OPUR, France). An experimental campaign with a total duration of 30 days was carried out.

The results indicated the following: the collectors

produced amounts of dew between 0 and 89 ml/m2 per night and the analysis of dew water showed alkaline pH for all samples which may be due to the proximity of the ocean. Weather station measurements indicated significant changes in several atmospheric parameters on daily as well as hourly basis, including humidity and wind speed which could explain the variability of the amount of dew obtained. The next steps in this project include: chemical and biological analysis to determine whether dew water is potable in the study area, analysis of spatial gradient of temperature in the collectors and a test campaign of one year to determine the seasonal variation of dew yield in the study area

### Acknowledgments

This work was supported by FONDECYT N° 11140863 project from CONICYT (Chile) and DI 37.0/2014 project from the Universidad Católica de Valparaiso (Chile).

## P-3315-05

### Interrogating the transformative power of renewable energy support instruments: the example of feed-in tariffs on photovoltaics

B. Cointe (1)

(1) CIRED, Nogent sur Marne, France

The deployment of renewable energy is considered to be a crucial part of mitigation strategies, and its promotion on the policy agenda has been largely driven by concerns related to climate change. This is particularly true of the European Union, where renewable energy policy and climate policy now go hand in hand. Besides being coupled, these two EU policy have in common their reliance on market mechanisms as means to trigger change in socio-technical systems by triggering innovation and redirecting investments towards mitigation solutions. As far as renewable energy is concerned, feed-in tariffs (FITs) have been one of the main instrument of transformation, and they have indeed proved effective in attracting investment towards renewable energy technologies, especially wind power and photovoltaics.

However, the transformations triggered by such instruments do not exactly conform to expectations: feed-in tariffs have driven the deployment of markets for electricity from renewable energy sources and the increase in renewable energy installed capacity, but they have also had many unintended effects and consequences that had to be addressed "on the go". The difficulties in managing the dynamics triggered by such mechanisms are especially striking in the case of photovoltaics, which have developed at a dramatic pace and led to political reforms and crises of varying intensities in several countries (e.g. France, Germany, Spain, UK...). Feed-in tariffs, it turns out, transform not only markets and technologies, but society and politics as well. This contribution will attempt to conceptualize the transformative power of such instruments and the issues related to its management by suggesting an alternative account of the functioning and effects of feed-in tariffs for photovoltaics.

To this end, it will rely on actor-network theory research on market-making and politicisation and on studies on governmentality. From this theoretical perspective, it will explore FIT-driven photovoltaics development in three sites, each of which sheds light on specific aspects and tensions of feed-in tariffs for photovoltaic electricity understood as political prices: the emergence and sophistication of feed-in tariffs for photovoltaics in the context of European renewable energy policy: the overflowing of the photovoltaic market that they provoked and the political crisis that ensued in France between 2009 and 2012; and the way in which they can be seized as instruments for territorial development and translated into economic and political resources. The contribution will show that feed-in tariffs for photovoltaic electricity can be described as political market agencements meant to trigger the deployment of electricity generation capacities as much as to foster innovation and experimentation around photovoltaic technologies. The articulation of this dual aim is delicate, especially since the modularity of photovoltaic technologies enables them to proliferate and spread rapidly, making their deployment hard to steer. This re-interpretation of feed-in tariffs will thus suggest ways to account for and analyse the difficulties in regulating current emerging renewable energy markets. It
will also contribute to the analysis of the implications and
challenges of driving transformations through the creation
and engineering of new markets that seems to characterise
many climate policies.

P-3315-06

The role of public-private partnerships in energy innovation and technology development

J. Coleman (1)

(1) Energy Technologies Institute, Strategy, Loughborough, United Kingdom

Innovation is key to delivering an affordable and secure
low carbon energy system. There is no time to invent and
deploy a set of novel breakthrough technologies and the cost
of adaptation will inevitably be higher than the cost
of mitigation. So, whilst breakthrough technologies will
always be welcome we cannot wait on them and neither
do we need to. A transition to low carbon can be achieved
by developing, commercialising and integrating known but
currently underdeveloped solutions.

This means that the emphasis of technology innovation
shifts from basic research and development towards
rolling up, integration, early deployment and systems
integration to prove and improve performance, drive down
cost and build developer and investor confidence.

This scaling up of known but underdeveloped technologies
implies different challenges and risks to earlier stage R&D
and requires different skills to deliver it as well as a
increase in funding levels. In a world with a functioning
carbon market providing a clear market signals public sector
investment in early stage R&D should leverage investment
from the private sector to further develop and deploy
the most promising technologies. However, given the
long lead times and high capital costs for many energy
technologies, even with a functioning market, there is
potentially a significant valley of death in which the risk/
reward balance remains insufficient to attract the levels
of finance needed for demonstration and early scale
deployment.

Current market structures and carbon pricing appear
unlikely to provide a sufficient market signal to incentive
the private sector alone to deliver the level of change
needed in the timeframe required. In fact the lack of
a carbon price in many ways reinforces the somewhat
skeptical view from many of the larger companies in
the energy sector that there is insufficient political will
to co-ordinate to contain global warming to 2degC,
even though it is technically feasible and affordable to
do so. Current policies, economic drivers and the rise of
renewables, do encourage continued substantial
private sector investment in improving the efficiency and
performance of incumbent technologies but this alone is
insufficient to deliver the scale of transition needed. An
alternative is increased government-led support with
penalties and incentives tailored to each sector, such as the
Contracts for Difference introduced in the UK's Electricity
Market Reform, to deliver a 'policy pull' until a carbon
market is established. This approach is not without its
challenges; not least the need to award Contracts through
a transparent and competitive process in a particular
sector, whilst also evaluating the value of proposals in
terms of their long term contribution to decarbonising
the energy system. Given the short term nature of the
policy mechanism it also doesn't adequately address the
valley of death for some of the large scale technology
and infrastructure developments that are potentially key
to an affordable transition. Moreover, private sector
organisations tend to be focussed on a particular sector
(or component of a sector) of the energy landscape whilst
the public sector needs to integrate and assess priorities
across and between sectors.

A successful transition requires the free markets efficient
allocation of resources, innovation and deep technical
skills to be combined with the governments ability to
prioritise between sectors, its access to low cost of capital,
democratic legitimacy and protection of consumers
role. Without a functioning carbon market (and probably
even with it) the public sector plays an essential role in
providing long term funding and taking much of the risk in
demonstration and early deployment of key technologies.
However, to be successful this must leverage financing
and draw on the skills of the private sector. The UK's

experience suggests that working in partnerships is a way
to combine these elements that the public and private
sectors need to bring to a successful transition.

Key references:

Coleman, J. and Haslett, A. 2015. Targets, technologies, infrastructure and investments - preparing the UK for the energy transition.

Rhodes, A., Skea, J. and Hannon, M. 2014. The Global
Surge in Energy Innovation. Energies ISSN 1996-1073

P-3315-07

LIFE programme and Climate Change

P. Fetsis (1)

(1) Neemo EEIG / AEIDL, LIFE communications team,
Brussels, France

The LIFE programme was established in 1992 and is the
EU's funding instrument for the environment. The general
objective of LIFE is to contribute to the implementation,
updating and development of EU environmental policy and
legislation by co-financing pilot or demonstration projects
with added value.

With 4171 initiatives supported to date, LIFE has improved
the environmental performance of a wide range of
sectors and fields across Europe. Pressure on water
resources is being exacerbated by climate change. LIFE
projects have focused on tackling water scarcity and
natural water hazards, both in urban and rural contexts.
Optimisation of water use through innovative water
management infrastructure, water resource planning and
allocation modelling, techniques for groundwater storage
improvement, cost analysis and water pricing services
are amongst the practices developed and tested when
addressing the impact of climate change on floods, as well
as on supply and availability of water.

Below you can find some examples of LIFE projects on
specific themes:

Europe, flood risk management

Floodscan: The project aimed to limit flood risk by testing
an innovative and cost-efficient method of mapping flood
hazard areas. A web mapping service was developed to
provide reliable and accurate information about flood risk
not only for the general public and businesses but also
for local and regional authorities, enabling them to take
more effective planning decisions (e.g. to ban building in
certain areas).

HydroClimateStrategyRiga: The project aimed to create a
flood risk management plan for the city of Riga in order
to create the means necessary to ensure that hydrological
processes intensified by climate change phenomena
are adequately investigated and incorporated into the
city's planning system. Methodological guidelines were
developed, based on existing and future flooding trends in
Riga and reinforced by best practices in the identification,
planning and management of flood risk zones as adopted
in Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg.

Mediterranean Basin / Innovation, Technology deployment
& policies

Water Agenda: The main objective was to apply the Water
Framework Directive principles and guidelines in order
to reverse water degradation trends at a local level in
the Anthemountas river basin, in Greece. A sustainable
water resource management policy was developed and
agreed amongst locals, demonstrating adequate social,
technical, administrative and economic techniques and
tools (e.g. allocation of water, real-time cost/benefit
data, water pricing), mainly focusing on how to address
water quantity, quality problems according to the region's
development trends, natural and social characteristics.

WIZ: Developed and demonstrated an innovative online
platform that includes two informative services (WIZ4All &
WIZ4Planners), able to incorporate the protection and
sustainable management of water in urban planning
processes and local policy areas. An analysis of long-
term management of drinking water integrated into land
use planning was conducted, enabling water authorities
to prepare investment plans and harmonize data
characterising the water demands of an area. Information
on water resources availability based on the effects of
climate change or active reporting on the quality of drinking water are amongst the activities making an optimum 'participatory management approach' possible.

P-3315-08

Lost at sea? Charting wave energy's
difficult journey towards commercialisa-
tion since a resurgence in UK government
support

M. Hannon (1)

(1) Imperial College, Centre for Environmental Policy,
London, United Kingdom

Large-scale support for wave energy innovation in the UK 'can be traced back to the early 1970s, a movement triggered by a sharp rise in fossil fuels following the oil crisis (Mukora et al. 2008). During this time wave energy became the principal focus for public research, development and deployment (RD&D) funding for renewable energies. However, as oil prices fell and the UK became a net exporter of oil during the 1980s and 90s funding began to decline rapidly. This shift is embodied by the termination of the UK's Wave Energy Programme in 1982, which was discontinued on the basis that official government cost estimates projected that wave energy would be more expensive in the long run compared to other promising (e.g. wind, nuclear) and established (e.g. coal) sources of energy (Ross 1996).

It wasn't until the late 1990s and early 2000s that ocean energy enjoyed a renaissance on the basis that UK government believed it could play a central role in meeting its carbon emissions reduction targets, whilst at the same time stimulating economic growth (LCIGC 2012; Jeffrey et al. 2013; RCEP 2014). Subsequently, $120 million of UK public funds have been committed to ocean energy RD&D since 2000. However, despite this resurgence in support there are still no commercial wave energy devices operating in UK waters today, with no major roll-out of devices expected until at least the 2020s (LCIGC 2012).

In this context the presentation explores why wave energy technology has failed to reach commercialisation in the UK despite a rich history of wave energy RD&D and a recent resurgence in public RD&D support since the turn of the millennium (e.g. takes a detailled genealogy of what have been the subsequent successes and failures during this period and which factors have been responsible. To answer these questions the presentation draws upon a combination of qualitative (i.e. interviews, documentary analysis) and quantitative (i.eA IEA RD&D repository) analysis to provide underpinning evidence. To conclude, some recommendations are presented to inform the design of the UK government's energy and innovation policy, with a view to accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon technologies and help it meet its carbon emissions targets.

References

Jeffrey, H., Jay, B. & Winskel, M., 2013. Accelerating the development of marine energy: Exploring the prospects, benefits and challenges. *Technological Forecasting and Social Change*, 80(7), pp.1306–1316. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.03.004.

LCIGC, 2012. Technology Innovation Needs Assessment (TINA): Marine Energy Summary Report, Available at: http://www.carbontrust.com/media/168547/tina-marine-energy-summary-report.pdf.

Mukora, A. et al., 2008. Wave Energy. Technology Development Review in the UK: Application of the Learning Curve Concept, 1970-1999., pp.1036-1042. Available at: http://www.research.ed.uk/portal/files/15536164/Audrey_Mukora_Published_Conference_Paper.pdf.

RCEP, 2014. Energy transformations MARINE, Available at: http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/RCUK-prod/assets/documents/energy/Marine-FINALSpreads.pdf.

Ross, D., 1996. Power from the Waves, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

P-3315-09

Device of dew and rain collectors in Guéné,
Northern Benin

G. Koto N'gobi (1)

(1) Abomé-Calavi University, Physic department, Cotonou,
Benin

Dew phenomenon is a process where water vapor condenses on various types of surfaces, such as grass, crops, roofs or vehicles, which are daily experience. Dew occurs at night or early in the morning, when nocturnal radiative cooling leads to surface temperature decrease, and humid air nearby the surface condenses as its temperature falls down below the dew points temperature of the surrounding atmosphere. Dew is important in several domains and has been the focal point of various scientific researches during many years. Its ecological and social importance has been shown in arid and semiarid areas or Islands. A condenser is a surface on which dew can condone. Three main geometrical shapes of condensers are generally presented: flat condensers, conical condensers and truncated condensers. Guéné is a semiarid village in northern Bénin with hard scarce drought conditions. The objective of this work is to present the different phases of making a truncated dew condenser, using local materials in order to pull better profit from dew water as an alternative source of water to adapt to climate severe conditions in Guéné. A device of rain water collector combined with the truncated condenser increase the amount of water that can be mobilized. During 62 days of measurements, 44 dew events and 5 rain events were observed. The results show that: (i) the truncated condenser can collect about 166 Liters, which represent about 2.7L per night, or 3.77L per dew night (ii) until 10 m3 of rain water can be stocked during the rainy season, (iii) dew amount represents about 36% of the total rain amount during dew measurement period. The collected dew and rain water represent the only source of water used in Guéné primary School for daily academic activities.

P-3315-10

The role of innovation and deployment
policy mixes for innovation in renewable
power generation technologies: a survey
analysis of German technology providers

K. Rogge (1) ; J. Schleich, (2)

(1) Fraunhofer ISI / University of Sussex, Energy policy and energy markets / spru- science policy research unit, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) Fraunhofer ISI / Grenoble École de Management, Energy policy and energy markets, Karlsruhe, Germany

The decarbonization of energy systems constitutes one of this century's key challenges for human society in the fight against climate change (van Vuuren et al. 2013). In such a transition so-called policy mixes play a crucial role in redirecting and accelerating technological change towards low-carbon solutions (Rogge and Reichardt 2013). Yet precisely how policy mixes affect technological innovation remains poorly understood. Rather, studies so far have focused on the impact of single policy instruments on environmental innovations, and also on their stringency as one of their design features (Kemp and Pontoglio 2011). However, in reality complex policy mixes are at play, implying that studies should focus on the interaction of policy instruments (Flanagan et al. 2011) and on overarching characteristics of such policy mixes, such as their consistency (Rogge and Reichardt 2013).

We address this gap in the literature by studying the case of the German Energiewende. More precisely, we analyze the role of the policy mix for firm-level innovation activities in renewable power generation technologies within the German power sector. Since this sector is supplier-driven (Pavitt 1984) we focus on German technology providers, and extend existing qualitative work in the sector (Rogge and Reichardt 2013). In this paper we conduct a survey of companies' innovation activities. The questionnaire for this survey was designed in line with the Community Innovation Survey, but was adjusted to the context of renewable power generation technologies and extended by a questions on companies' perceptions of the policy mix. The survey was conducted by telephone from April 9 until June 22, 2014, with interviews lasting around 30 minutes. In this time period we contacted all German renewable power generation manufacturers and suppliers and achieved a response rate of approximately 36% (n=390).

In our econometric approach we employed a bivariate Tobit model to estimate R&D expenditure equations for the years 2014 and 2015, where the error terms captured possible
correlations between R&D expenditures in different years. In this case, the use of univariate Tobit probit models can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimations (e.g. Greene, 2012). The simulated maximum likelihood estimations were carried out with STATA 13, relying on Barlsund (2009).

Findings of our econometric analysis suggest that R&D expenditures have both years for companies with higher current and expected future turnovers (including export) in the respective renewable power technology generation, which is in line with other studies on the key relevance of domestic and foreign demand pull instruments (Peters et al. 2013). Likewise, higher R&D expenditures are positively related to the amount of subsidies received for R&D from German or EU public funding bodies, thereby confirming the importance of technology push instruments for innovations. Further, future R&D spending is larger if respondents perceive the current instrument mix to be consistent in its support of renewable energy, and if they perceive a high credibility of the overarching policy mix, as measured by the uniform cross-party support for the expansion of renewables within the German Energiewende. This confirms and extends qualitative findings for offshore wind in Germany pointing to the importance of policy mix consistency and credibility for R&D and adoption activities of emerging renewable power generation technologies (Reichardt and Rogge 2014). Finally, the time a company has been on the market for the respective renewable power technology considered is positively related to the magnitude of innovation expenditures, i.e. more experienced firms invest more in innovation.

Based on our findings we derive recommendations for policy makers on tailoring policy mixes to support innovation in low-carbon technologies. These policy implications are not only relevant in the context of the German Energiewende but for any country aiming to promote innovation activities of domestic manufacturers in renewable power generation technologies. Such support enables the build-up and strengthening of low-carbon industries and the global deployment of innovative low-carbon technologies, thereby contributing to mitigating global climate change.

P-3315-11

The role of micro-grid on decoupling sharp fluctuations of electricity demand

P. Roque (1) ; S. Chowdhury, (2)

(1) Eduard Molande University, Mechanical Engineering, Maputo, Mozambique; (2) Tshwane University of Technology, Electrical engineering, Pretoria, South Africa

Among the many human activities that produce greenhouse gases, the use of energy represents by far the largest source of emissions (IEA, 2014). This paper presents the relationships that sharp electricity demand fluctuations have with CO2 emission and describe how the shape of fluctuations interact with power dispatch, contributing to increase greenhouse gases that influence climate change. The impact on peak loading is particularly important, since occasions of extreme temperatures are likely to stress electricity systems in meeting demand (Parkpoom & Harrison, 2008). The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) is used to simulate different daily load profile and thus power output can be evaluated for both centralized generation and distributed generation.

Peak demand fluctuations may occur on daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal and yearly cycles. Different power system or different categories of consumers (Residential, Industrial and Commercial) can have similar or distinct daily demand curves. Daily load profile shape has a profile influence on power dispatch and thus, during the peak hours most of power plants need to run on their maximum output. Since peak power plants are in most case fossil fuel power plants due to their operation costs, it can be assumed that the need of covering peak demand contribute to aggravate CO2 emission. The shape of the daily load curve is associated with plant capacity factor. High plant capacity factor leads to increase of power production.

Plant capacity factor = (Average annual Output/Plant capacity*8760)

In order to avoid peak demand, different measures can be implemented (energy efficiency, micro-grid system,

renewable technologies etc.). According to IEA (2007), micro grid systems show strong potential to optimize asset utilization by shifting peak load to off-peak times, thereby decoupling electricity growth from peak load growth. Apart from this advantage, micro grid systems improve power quality and reliability due to decentralization of supply and better match of supply and demand. Economic operation of micro grid systems should be ensured through generation scheduling, economic load dispatch and optimal power flow operations (Chowdhury & Crossley, 2009). MESSAGE is a powerful tool for assessment of economic load dispatch and optimal power flow operations. For example, considering that renewable technologies such as solar PV and wind power plants are no dispatchable, connecting them off-grid can make those technologies competitive with other dispatchable technologies such as gas and coal power plants.

References:

AboGaleela, M.; El-Marsafawy, M.; El-Sobki, M. (2013). Optimal Scheme with Load Forecasting for Demand Side Management in Residential Areas.

Chowdhury, S.; Chowdhury, S. P., Crossley, P. (2009). Microgrid and Active Distribution Networks.

Fathi, M.; Bevrani, H. Adaptive energy consumption scheduling for connected microgrids under demand uncertainty.

Gopiya N. S.; Khatod, D. K.; Sharma, M.P. (2012). Planning and Operation of Distributed Generation in Distribution Networks.

IEA (2011). Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050.

IEA (2014). CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Highlights

Khodayar, M.E.; Barati, M.; Shahidehpour, M. Integration of high reliability distribution system in microgrid operation.

Mtokambali, C.; Jun, Z. (2014). Smart Grid Technologies and Future Motivators Influencing Change in the Electricity Sector in Tanzania.

Parkpoom, S.; Harrison, G. P. (2008). Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand.

Sing, S. N. (2011). Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution.

Tan, S.; Xu, J.; Panda, S.K. Optimization of distribution network incorporating distributed generators: an integrated approach.

P-3315-12

Resource-Policy-Innovation Nexus for Entrepreneurial Roles across Scales and Sectors of Low Carbon Pathway in Climate Governance

A. Tiwari (1)

(1) National Institute Of Technology, NITB, India

In the next 25 years, the world needs to invest 40 trillion dollars in infrastructure modernization. It is important to ensure that these financial resources are invested in low-carbon technology instead of conventional carbon-dependent systems. For developed economies where investments will mainly involve replacing out-of-date technology, the transition to a climate-friendly society will involve replacing existing fossil intensive systems. For developing economies, the transition to a larger extent concerns changing the course for implementing new entire systems. This brings opportunities and challenges for sustainability entrepreneurs. Nations not yet subject to fossil technology and institutional lock-in could potentially skip certain development stages (such as the fossil era), thus "leap-frogging" into the new low-carbon economy. Indeed, fast-growing economies will have to leapfrog past much fossil technology, or we will not be able to meet the climate challenge.

The study outlines the essential role of entrepreneurs to operate within resources unaccounted for effects, within which they find opportunities to create value. These efforts are easier when property rights and legal rules are clearer. Challenges to environmental entrepreneurs include environmental problems that cross international boundaries--the transaction costs and financial resource institution of dealing in different legal structures and
property rights systems are huge. As this space for environmental entrepreneurship based on property rights and win-win outcomes shrinks, the space for political entrepreneurship expands. One form of political entrepreneurship is alertness to previously unnoticed rent-seeking opportunities. Cross-boundary environmental issues are characterized by more than usual actions by political entrepreneurs. An example is the potential for climate change caused by humans producing greenhouse gases, the effects of which are globalized. This calls for consideration of effects on global emissions including from import and export.

The research utilizes the policy umbrella under which from shifting from product focus to service focus will be central in establishing demand-side incentives for innovation through public procurement policies, which can play an important role as an early test market for climate change policy while pushing down costs for new technology and provide low-carbon innovations in different types of businesses. Using the theoretical lenses of multi-level governance, socio-technical transitions, and corporate sustainability and sustainability entrepreneurship the paper highlights the achievement of low-carbon future through economic policy by particularly examining the climate policy within the major themes of globalization as climate objectives have more weight in economic policy than environmental policy. The climate goals manifested in economic policy for decarbonizing economies have potential clear short-term benefits, with short-term costs, and coincide with people's economic goals for greater acceptance and appreciation and in turn fostering involvement.

The study meets the challenges of institutional path dependency as existing institutions and interested parties are typically tied to existing technologies and systems, which hinder transition to the low-carbon economy by the fact that carbon emitting technology does not carry its full upfront cost, or that innovations typically require higher upfront investment than fossil intensive systems—while subsequent costs for operations are lower, and due to which short-sighted financial analyses favour fossil intensive systems. In this context, the research allows for collective entrepreneurial effectiveness to be higher than the sum of individual roles in administering linear resource flows with input, process, and waste that will be replaced by cyclical flows. The outcomes favour entrepreneurial roles in dynamic interplay between nonstate, or subnational, actors (such as municipalities, state and provincial authorities, nongovernmental organizations, and civil society groups), international knowledge networks and organisations.

P-3315-13

## The impact of policy and uncertainty on innovation in the wind industry: evidence from European countries

E. Verdolini (1) ; V. Bosetti (2) ; P. Jockers, (3)

(1) FEEM Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CCSD, Milano, Italy;

(2) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy; (3) Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

The 2010 moratorium on the level of feed-in-tariffs in the French solar photovoltaic industry offers one of the best illustrations of how impactful an abrupt policy change can be. Fearing the development of a "green bubble", the French government suspended the grid connection permissions for some installations over 3 kilowatts peak for a period of 3 months. Since then the French solar industry has repeatedly been described as "plunged in an induced coma" with dramatic social and economic consequences. Projects backlog reached ~3.6GW at the end of December 2010 fell by 58% as of June 2012, employment in the French photovoltaic sector declined from 32,500 in 2010 to 18,000 in 2012.

This is of many examples highlighting the negative impact of policy uncertainty, namely of uncertainty arising from policy change and complexity. Similar anecdotal evidence and case studies can be found in the academic literature for other renewable energy technologies. For instance, Barradale (2010) describes how chronic uncertainty over the renewal of the production tax credit in the U.S. has been driving investment volatility. Meyer and Koefoei (2003) investigate how changes in the political regime in Denmark has generated uncertainty for investors. Agnolucci (2006) shows how the introduction of

a biennial revision of feed-in-tariffs in Germany through a modification of the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) may cause significant uncertainty. While praising the results achieved by the German renewable energy policy, he demonstrates that political uncertainty was behind the decrease in additional capacity in 1997-1998, 2000 and 2003.

The uncertainty surrounding policy may be a strong determinant of the development of renewable energy sources. However, a brief overview of the economic literature on climate change and energy policy shows that less attention has traditionally been devoted to its impacts than to those of economic or technological uncertainty. Moreover, most of the discussion in this respect has remained theoretical. This is a major shortcoming, as policy making and design should be informed about the negative impact on private investors decisions of changing rules, conditions, and more in general of not being able to provide a sufficiently stable policy environment.

This paper attempts to bridge a gap in the empirical literature and provide policy-relevant insight on the impact of uncertainty on wind innovation in 18 European countries over the years 1995-2009. We go a great length towards constructing sound empirical proxies for environmental policy transparency and policy uncertainty. Inspired by the real option theory, we propose two novel proxies, one for environmental policy stringency and one for the uncertainty that characterizes such policy. Unlike those used in previous studies on renewable energy technologies, our proxies for policy stringency and policy volatility are robust to three major concerns. First, we net out the effects of those non-policy factors which might drive capacity addition on top of government policies. Second, our proxies account for the fact that rational investors refer to expected policy and policy changes, namely future capacity additions rather than current ones, to make their decisions. Finally, and more fundamentally, we clean our proxies from the issue of potential reverse causality between installed capacity (and its volatility) and innovation. More specifically, we control for the fact that innovation may stimulate capacity additions through technology improvements resulting in greater efficiency and/or lower costs.

We confirm the positive inducement effect of environmental policy on innovation and most importantly show that indeed policy uncertainty counters such positive effect. We find that if both policy and uncertainty increase by one standard deviation in the sample, the benefits to innovation due to the increased stringency level are wiped away due to the negative effect of policy uncertainty.

P-3315-14

## Scaling up technology transfer through the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism

K. Wada (1)

(1) RITE, Systems Analysis Group, Kyoto, Japan

This paper contributes to debates about technology transfer through the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The purpose of this study is to understand the challenges that the current UNFCCC approach faces and to make policy recommendations on how the UN process can be brought closer to the actual need of technology to address climate change. This analysis is relevant to international negotiation in the post 2020 climate regime.

The mechanism has played a limited role in technology transfer so far, failing to materialize in actual technology deployment. Technologies can be transferred through various channels, ranging from official development assistance (ODA) to the private sector, such as foreign direct investment (FDI), the UNFCCC, however, deals with technology transfer, as a government-to-government process and disvalues the role of private sector. This narrow focus cannot deliver a significant level of low-carbon technology required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries.

There are number of reasons why the UNFCCC needs to structuralize business activities, rather than governmental support, as a basis of technology transfer. First of all, the private sector owns most of the low carbon technologies. Without their engagement and innovative capability, the existing UNFCCC process will not deliver the scale of change that is necessary to achieve climate goal. Thus far, carbon credits via the CDM have facilitated private sector