non-skilled daily labourers. Feasible adaptation measures may be recommended with further to revise this resource dependent subsistence economy.

P-2217-11

Spatial and temporal variabilities of land uses as affected by global change: a focus on Mediterranean agriculture

C. Giuppioni (1) ; V. Mojtahdah (1)

(1) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venezia, Italy

At the global level, climate and socio-economic changes determine the patterns of the allocation and trade of resources in all markets. Top-Down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, using only economics factors of production (capital and labour mostly) and ignoring natural resources constraints, look at the effects of global trends and generate trajectories of socio-economic indicators, such as prices of commodities in the global markets, volumes of trades, gross products per country and sectors. Those models are commonly used to analyse the evolution of global economies, under the pressure of climate change drivers, but their approach impose substantial simplifications in terms of spatial aggregation and limited consideration of temporal variabilities.

When considering adaptation of social and ecological systems to climate change, their inherent complexity and non-linearity and spatial and temporal variabilities put the usefulness of consolidated CGE approaches under question. As a consequence, other methodological approaches are explored, and in particular much more and more scholars adopt Bottom-up approach, which utilises agent-based models (ABM). ABM's embrace a much finer spatio-temporal detail, in particular, with the ambition to analyse the behavioural diversity of agents, as a consequence of their diverse interactions with the surrounding environment and their bounded perceptions of the changing world.

This work explores the potential for integration of the two approaches with ABM models being used to simulate land use change dynamics, with consideration of spatial (i.e. territorial) and temporal (i.e. climatic extremes and economic shocks) variabilities, driven by CGE models providing the macro-economic trends under the effects of global change scenarios.

We focus on how global change may affect land-use allocation on the regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in agro-ecosystems behaviour.

With the purpose to develop an approach that could be implemented worldwide as a means for zooming down from the global to the regional scale, an ABM prototype was developed and run with readily available global databases in three [VM1] test areas around the Mediterranean Basin, in agricultural regions of Morocco, Italy and Spain[VM2]. Starting with extremely simplified and averaged settings; we sequentially introduce the available information about spatial and temporal variability and simulate the dynamics of water and land-use allocations and their consequences on economic performances. The coherency of the outcomes of ABM simulations with the macro trends provided by the CGE model is discussed in view of possible further developments in terms of improved integrated multi-scale simulation of global change scenarios and economic development.

P-2217-12

Low Emission Development Strategies in Agriculture. An Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Perspective

A. Haruna (1) ; A. De Pinto (1) ; G. Hyman (2) ; J. Tapasco (2) ; M. Li (3) ; HY. Kwon (1)

(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; (3) International Food Policy Research Institute, EPT, Washington, DC, United States of America

Resource use in many developing countries, from crop production to deforestation, is responsible for the bulk of greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions. We also know that there are instances in which the agricultural and forestry sectors can provide low-cost climate change mitigation opportunities. From a technical point of view, reducing expected increases in GHG emissions in agriculture requires the adoption of transformative approaches in the use of resources. A growing body of literature analyzes the effects of alternative agricultural practices: the livestock sector has also been the target of research on mitigation opportunities and the mitigation potential of forests, soil and other biomass, has been amply analyzed as well. However, from a policy-making perspective, the design of low emission development strategies is an example of multi-objective decision making in which policies target the reduction of GHG emissions while other goals such as increasing agricultural productivity and food security or attaining objectives such as export goals or economic growth, are preserved. Furthermore, it is important to consider that all countries are part of a global economic system and it is critical that policies are devised with full recognition of the role of the international economic environment which can significantly affect the long-term viability and the budgetary implications of mitigation policies. The challenge at hand is therefore to reconcile the limited spatial resolution, a macro level economic models that operate on a multinational national level models that function as a higher spatial resolution, which allow to properly account for changes in carbon stocks and GHG emissions. To our knowledge there are only a few examples of analyses with similar objectives: Golub et al (2013) examined the impact on food consumption and income of implementing mitigation policies at national and regional levels. Schneider et al (2008) estimated mitigation potentials of U.S. agriculture within regionally disaggregated data and changes within the agricultural sector. Rutten et al. (2014) evaluated the effects of select climate change and economic growth scenarios on Vietnam's economy. Havlik et al. (2014) estimated the effects of transitioning to more efficient livestock production system on GHG mitigation and the economy. In this work we demonstrate that different models, all widely accessible to the public, can be brought together to help policymakers in their evaluation of trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of alternative mitigation policies in the agricultural sector. While the focus of this work is on Colombia, the analytical framework can be applied to any country interested in exploring country-wide effects and economic viability of climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. The approach is based on the use of public and widely accessible data and we believe that the flexibility and transparency of the approach proposed in this study can be of great value. This appears clear from our analysis that policy-makers need substantial support in their decision-making process as the range of options they face can be very diverse and the effects of their decisions have important, and sometimes unexpected, repercussions. The effects of the policies we simulated cover the entire spectrum of potential outcomes. We find win-win policies (reducing land allocated to pasture increase revenues and carbon stock and reduces GHG emissions), policies with tradeoffs (limiting deforestation in the Amazon and a moderate increase in oil palm area increases carbon stock, decreases emissions, but reduces revenues) and policies that seem to generate clearly inferior results (substantial increasing the area allocate to oil palm cultivation reduces carbon stock, increases emissions and reduces revenues). Given the complexity of low emissions development strategies, modeling approaches, frameworks, and tools should the modelable, open, and transparent. Modeling frameworks should be adaptable so that policy makers can explore the consequences of using different data sets and incorporate new information as it becomes available. Modeling frameworks and tools should be open to the inclusion of input from different models and transparent so that the robustness of the results can be assessed. We believe that the modeling framework proposed in this work fits these characteristics. Stakeholders, from government agencies, to private sector, from government organizations to farmers, will benefit from policies devised with the support of solid evidence and the effects of which can be investigated and evaluated by all the parties affected.

P-2217-13

Implications of bioenergy production under various future land system pathways

F. Fumpenoeder (1) ; A. Popp (1) ; J. Dietrich (1) ; B.
Bodirsky (1); A. Biewald (1); U. Kreidenweiß (1); H. Lotze-Campen (1); C. Müller (1); S. Rolinski (1); M. Stevanovic (1); I. Weindl (1); D. Klein (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Bioenergy use in the energy sector, particularly in combination with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), plays a key role for reaching ambitious climate targets. But the large-scale production of bioenergy, which potentially requires considerable amounts of fertile land and water (Bonsch et al., 2014, GCB Bioenergy), can have side effects on land-use dynamics, land-related GHG emissions and food prices. For instance, CO2 emissions from deforestation associated with bioenergy production could lower the mitigation effect of bioenergy use in the energy sector (Popp et al., 2012, Ecol Econ). However, avoiding land use change and associated CO2 emissions due to bioenergy production could result in higher prices for food (Popp et al., 2011, Environ Res Lett) and also bioenergy (Klein et al., 2014, Environ Res Lett). There is a huge body of literature on bioenergy potentials and trade-offs with climate protection, sustainability and food security goals (Creutzig et al., 2014, GCB Bioenergy). However, most of these publications focus on single aspects, while a comprehensive and consistent analysis taking into account various uncertainties of future land system pathways, such as future food demand, development of agricultural yields, and availability of land for agricultural expansion, is still missing.

In this study, we analyze the implications of bioenergy production under various land use system pathways with the global spatially explicit land-use optimization model MAgPIE. Our general scenario setup is based on SSP2 (O'Neill et al., 2015, Glob Environ Chang) and includes bioenergy demand (2nd generation) that increases linearly to 300 EJ by 2100. We assess the global medium to long-term implications of bioenergy production in terms of land-use dynamics, associated GHG emissions, and bioenergy and food prices. How these environmental and socio-economic indicators evolve under bioenergy production throughout the 21st century depends on key characteristics of the future land system. We test the sensitivity of these indicators to the following land system parameters that directly or indirectly affect bioenergy production: future bioenergy yields (irrigation, feedstock availability), pricing of land-related GHG emissions, forest protection, trade liberalization, future food demand, and productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Finally, we identify trade-offs and synergies related to bioenergy production along the analyzed future land system pathways.

Our results show, for instance, that GHG emission pricing strongly reduces deforestation related to bioenergy production. Consistently, CO2 emissions from land-use change are lower under GHG emission pricing. However, bioenergy as well as food prices considerably increase with GHG emission pricing due to competition for land. Thus, there is a trade-off between land-based mitigation via bioenergy and food security: low CO2 emissions from land-use change coincide with high food prices, while high CO2 emissions from land-use change coincide with low food prices.

P-2217-14

Disturbance climate in Eastern of Democratic Republic of the Congo

M. Kasangala Junior (1); MN. Mugeruza (2)

(1) National Institute of Agronomic Studies and Climate Research, Geography, Uvira, South-Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo; (2) Higher Technical Institute of Development, Geography, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo

In DR Congo, in South - Kivu province, specifically in the territory of Uvira, Fizi, Mwenga and Shabunda, the influx of Rwandan and Burundian refugees in 1992 and 1994. And the population displacement caused by war 1996 and 1998 were at the base of the massive felling of trees in the forests therein and practice of bushfire. These trees were felled every day to serve as firewood, construction and service to millions of people and bushfire to easily obtain cultivable extended to capture wild animals and pastoral aims. Naturally, this region comprises 5 ecological zones which are the coastal plain, the tray means, the highlands and woodland. The region also has two climatic seasons

including the rainy season which extends from September to June to the dry season which lasts 2 months, all the months of July and August of each year. The environment in this part has been degraded, due to massive deforestation and practice bushfire. These two negative factors were the basis for the deterioration of the climate in this part of country. These massive cuts uncontrolled wood and unquantified and bushfire caused few years later in 2006 and 2007 climate change ever experienced in the region. This climate change has led to a disruption of the agricultural calendar and a sharp increase in heat. Crop period would normally start with the beginning of the rainy season in September was postponed in December or January. The rain was almost rare throughout the region during this period, and once she fell here and there on bare soil where water carried everything in their path. The flow of many rivers has decreased significantly ways and most of the rivers had dried completely. A kind of temporary drought is established. It was suffocating for lack of water everywhere. Meteorological services of the country gave each time the alert climate of the region where the temperature still ranged between 30 and 35 ° signal. Many people have fallen ill and many children died of this climate change. Many wild and domestic animals perished. The plant diseases have been developed, particularly called cassava mosaic disease appeared. This disease has made cassava much less productive while cassava is a staple food in the middle. The plants were dried by lack of water. Famine is installed around the region. Communities of people, groups of people moved themselves further into the forest in search of more productive and reassuring for survival places. Alarm calls initiated by local leaders, civil society and development organizations on the climatic disturbance in that region has allowed political authorities of administrative and non - governmental organizations of development to evolve to stop all this ecological and climatic catastrophe.

To this effect, the following measures were taken:

* Formal prohibition massive cutting wood

* Priority Reforestation of denuded areas

* Cutting wood on authorization by the competent authorities

* Prohibition of bushfire

* Education and community awareness about the dangers of mass slaughter of trees and the practice of bush fire and their impact on climate change.

Seven years later, despite the efforts, the situation has not yet returned to normal.

P-2217-15

Addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation together: A global assessment of agriculture and forestry projects

R. Kongsager (1); B. Locatelli (2); F. Chazarin (2)

(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark; (2) Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru

Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed whether climate change projects in forestry and agriculture integrated adaptation and mitigation, by analyzing 20 projects from adaptation funds (e.g., UNFCCC (Adaptation Fund), adaptation plans (e.g., National Adaptation Programmes of Action), mitigation instruments (e.g., Clean Development Mechanism), and project standards (e.g., Climate Community & Biodiversity (CCB)). We analyzed whether projects established for one goal contributed explicitly to the other (i.e., whether mitigation projects contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether their activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the project documents explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other
objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaption (90%) and all mitigation projects could potentially contribute at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaption to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaption and mitigation.

### P-2217-16

#### Legacy effects of repeated land-use changes in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

A. Kraeche (1); A. Arneth (2); A. Bayer (3); M. Lindeskog, (4); TAM. Pugh (3)

(1) KIT, Imk-ifu, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Imk-ifu, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (4) Lund University, Lund, Sweden

This contribution is aimed at the session «Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system» conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp.

Natural terrestrial ecosystems store large amounts of carbon in living biomass and soils. During the last centuries, wood harvest and deforestation of primary forests for pastures and croplands greatly altered carbon, water and nutrient cycles and thereby also affected secondary vegetation dynamics after the cessation of agriculture. Historically most terrestrial biosphere models have only accounted for net changes in land-use aggregated at coarse scales of 0.5" or more. However, the extent to which finer-scale details of land-use change dynamics, particularly the detailed land-use history of a site, influence ecosystem and carbon dynamics is not well understood. In this study we investigate the legacy effects of repeated land cover transitions between natural vegetation, pastures, croplands and managed forests over different time intervals in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. We identify the extent to which land-use transitions are reversible, and quantify lags in system response, finding that these results are strongly dependent on the land-use history. Implications for regional and global scale estimates of land-use change emissions and the feasibility of reforestation projects to sequester carbon are discussed.

### P-2217-17

#### A Cascade Modeling Approach to the Assessment of Climate Induced Land Use Change

A. Lungarska (1); PA. Jayet, (1)

(1) INRA, Economie Publique, Thiverval-Grignon, France

Land use and land use change are inherently related to climate change (Pielke, 2005). Furthermore, they are interconnected as each one is influencing the other. In this study we assess the effects of climate change on human activities, namely agriculture and forestry, and the resulting land use change for France. Our modeling approach combines sector-specific mathematical programming models and statistical tools in a multistage algorithm. As a first step, the effects of climate on agriculture and forestry are captured through a generic crop model (STICS, Brisson et al., 2009) and a statistical model of tree growth and mortality. The results obtained are then used in the second modeling stage. They are exploited as parameters in economic models for the two sectors: the agricultural supply-side model AROPA (Galko & Jayet, 2011) and the partial equilibrium model of French forestry, FFSM++ (Caurla et al., 2013). These two models allow us to evaluate the potential gains for their corresponding sectors. The final, third, step of our modeling approach consists in an econometric (statistical) land use model where agricultural and forestry rents are approximated by the results from the sector-specific models. Thus, we can estimate land use shares of five major categories: (i) agriculture, (ii) forestry, (iii) urban, (iv) pastures, and (v) other; at the scale of a homogeneous grid with resolution of 8 km x 8 km covering metropolitan

France for the period 2000 - 2100. The major advantage of our modeling approach is that it accounts for variation in biological productivity due to climate change and at the same time it can test different socioeconomic scenarios such as new price vectors, management practices and public policies.

**References:**

Brisson, N., Launay, M., Mary, B., & Beaudoin, N. (2009). Conceptual Basis, Formalisations and Parameterization of the Stics Crop Model. QUAE.

Caurla, S., Delacote, P., Lecoco, F., Barthès, J., and Barkaoui, A. (2013). Combining an inter-sectoral carbon tax with sectoral mitigation policies: Impacts on the french forest sector. Journall of Forest Economics 19: 450-461.

Galko, E. and Jayet, P.-A. (2011). Economic and environmental effects of decoupled agricultural support in the EU. Agricultural Economics 42: 605-618.

Pielke, R. A. Sr (2005). Land use and climate change. Science, 310, 1625-1626.

### P-2217-18

#### Geoinformation-based morphometric flood risk and vulnerability analysis of Kubwa settlement, Abuja

MI. Mahmoud (1); C. Christopher (2); M. Thiel, (2); D. Alfred (3); SA. Halilu (4)

(1) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, (KNUST), Civil engineering department, grp climate change and land use, Kumasi, Ghana; (2) Institute of Geography and Geology, Remote sensing, Würzburg, Germany; (3) College of Engineering, Geometrics Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah university of science and technology, Kumasi, Ghana; (4) National Space Research and development Agency (NASRDA), Strategic space applications, Abuja, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Natural landscapes have profoundly been changed due to human activities. In particular, land use and land management change affect the hydrology that determines flood hazard. In this research, the use of historical remote sensing dataset is used to assess the vulnerability of people and places to potential risk associated to settlements especially from flooding events linked to lowland and floodplains. The motivation for this work is that global trends of disaster occurrences are on the increase in urban areas and peri-urban settlement. Hence there is urgent need to assess the vulnerability of places and people to natural hazards such as flood risk especially in developing countries to improve disaster risk reduction (DRR) programmes in urban areas. In here a geoinformation-based approach is adopted to initially map land cover change of Abuja and envir and to understand settlement morphology, and identify settlement such as Kubwa vulnerable to flooding event. Landsat (TM, ETM+ and OLI) image series from 1986, 2001 and 2014 were used to generate retrospective and contemporary landscape maps using support vector machines (SVM). To unlock changes in plan implementation, result of the remote sensing-based land use maps was compared to the original land use map. It was apparent that residential areas have increased remarkably by more than 50%. To determine built area encroachment into the flood line and floodplains, identify and classify the area into the different levels of vulnerability, a floodplain morphometric information extraction from public domain satellite-based DEMs geohazard modeling such as flood susceptibility due to landscape as well as climate extreme events. Finally, the assessment revealed that the central part of Kubwa, is largely a lowland which is observed to be densely populated and, is most affected by flood incidences due to global sea level rise, resulting to poor infiltration. Other characteristics include settlement encroachment into the flood zone and floodplains, clogging of the drains and lack of land use planning. The outlook of this study therefore recommends the need for geospatial land use planning, improved drainage infrastructure in delineated high risk zones, enforcement of standards and codes, community education/ participation, among others.

### P-2217-19

#### Urban Land Use Change Effects on Coastal Forest Ecosystem: A Case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
### A. Masanja (1)

(1) Institute for Environment and Development Studies, Environment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

This study assessed the impacts of coastal urban land use changes and climate change on coastal forests. The study analyzed the impacts of climate change on coastal livelihoods and their implication on coastal forest degradation; the impacts of coastal urban and peri-urban expansion on coastal forest ecosystems; examined existing strategies in addressing coastal forest degradation; and developed strategies for integrated coastal urban and peri-urban land use plans in support of climate change adaptation and coastal forest conservation.

The study applied the Geographical Information System (GIS) to the changes of land use in Peri Urban Areas of Dar es Salaam, a participatory rural appraisal using questionnaires and key interviews was applied to assess the impacts of land use changes on coastal forest ecosystem surrounding communities particularly impacts on coastal livelihoods.

The study found that change in land cover from vegetation to residential buildings and paved land surfaces due to urban land use alters completely the functional properties of land including its ecosystem services that exists before changing the land use. In addition to the impacts of land use change due to urban development, the growing urban population is directly linked to the surrounding as well as distant forest ecosystem services. The shift in livelihoods of communities from coastal to forest based activities due to impact of climate change on coastal environmental services exacerbates stress on coastal forests. Continued pressure of urban and peri-urban growth and livelihood activities on coastal forests contributes to coastal deforestation and forest degradation.

This study concluded that land use changes in settlements that surround ecosystems have caused changes in ecosystem services. However, change in land uses is highly caused by population growth when one more person enters a new area, creates demand of an area for shelter and an area for performing activities for livelihood. This agrees with the human ecology theory of succession and invasion. When there is population influx in areas surrounding an ecosystem, such an ecosystem is subject to high pressure of degradation. Therefore, unuided land use development has adverse effects to the ecosystem services. Dar es Salaam watershed ecosystems which were once a home for millions of various biodiversity species have been affected by land use/cover changes in surrounding urban and peri urban areas. The study recommended for an integrated ecosystem approach to mitigate the impacts of land use change on forest ecosystem.

## P-2217-20

# Significant Contribution of Oil and Gas Industries in Temperature increasing in Northern Coast of the Persian Gulf

### H. Moradi (1); AA. Malekizadeh (2)

(1) Isfahan University of Technology, Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Isfahan University of Technology, Department of natural resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (PSEEZ) was established in 1998 for the utilization of South Pars oil and gas resources. The gas resources of PSEEZ is about 9% of all gas reservoirs explored in the world. Since 2002, the operation at the PSEEZ is active. It is planned that the PSEEZ will about 28 phases of refineries and petrochemical plants. Before coming oil and gas activities to the region, there was a unique landscape as mangrove forests, muddy coasts, wetlands, rangelands, farm lands, etc. Although all the phases are not operating but the landscape totally has been changed. Usually, the industrial activities causes air pollution, water pollution, directly (e.g. stacks and flares or indirectly (landuse/cover changes). In this paper, we studied the landuse/cover changes as well as the changed in local temperature from 1998 to 2013. To do this, we used the Landsat5™ and Landsat 8 (OLI) satellite images between May 1998 (Before construction started) and May 2013 (after 10 years operation). We made the temperature maps from Infrared thermal bands (i.e. TM 6 and OLI 10). Our results showed that a 100% increase in industrial zones and flares areas, a decrease of 34.11ha

in mangroves cover (mostly in Basatin Bay), and a decrease of 12864 ha in natural rangelands (mostly in mountain-side looking to industrial zones) are the major changes. However, the wastewater releases from Phases 9 and 10 could be a reason to destroy the mangroves. Marine watercourses in our study area have been decreased by 1761.7 ha where 1509 ha has been changed to bare lands and 119 ha to industrial zones. This decrease is because of filling the shallow waters and drying the Mohr River. Moreover, the wet lands have changed from 6683 ha in 1998 to 418 ha in 2013. Comparing the landuse/ cover changes with the temperature map revealed a positive correlation. The results showed that the mean temperature increase by 2.86 C from May 1998 to May 2013. The findings showed that temperature ranges are different in two dates where in 1998 is between 24C-55C and for 2013 is between 25C-61C. Moreover, in 1998, temperature class 26C had covered the most area of the studied area by 34224 ha where this has decreased to 24416 ha in 2013. In 1998, in overall, only 7400 ha had the temperature lower than 26C but in 2013 only 5 ha. In 1998, the area of the temperature class 37-44C was 58366 ha which is decreased to 18852 ha in 2013. The area of temperature class of 45C-49C I this time period did not changed and was about 60000ha. Therefore, the major changes in area of temperature class happened in 50C-55C which increased from 10569ha in 1998 to 56760 ha in 2013. In 1998, the latest temperature which is observed in the study area is 55C with 25 ha but in 2013 we observed a new class of temperature 55C-61C with 3824 ha. If we have a closer look at the landuse/cover changes map and temperature map, we could found that changing the shallow waters to bare and industrial lands caused an increase of about 17C in the filled areas. Moreover, making dry the wet lands for industrial lands has been caused an increase of about 5C to 6C where this increase because of the Mohr River is about 140C. Our results revealed that although the industrial development and its activities has a direct impacts on local temperature but the landuse/cover changes coming by the development has also a major impacts.

## P-2217-21

# Agriculture and livestock under the effects of climate change

M. Nofuentes Ramos (1); L. Cañas Ramírez (1); JA. Morgui (1); E. Vazquez (1); A. Águeda (1); P. Occhipinti (1); C. Grossi (1); R. Curcoll (1); O. Batet (1); S. Borrás (1); X. Rodó (1)

(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain

Current practices in agriculture and livestock are closely linked with climate change. Surplus nitrogen use agriculture and intensive livestock production represent a major contribution to the increasing concentrations of various greenhouse gases (GHGs). Moreover, climate change affects crops and farms around the world, due to increased temperatures, weather extremes and incidence of floods and droughts.

Agriculture represents one of the main emitters of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ammonia (NH3). Farming in the EU now accounts for 7% of global emissions of GHGs. Since the second half of the twentieth century the increased use of nitrogen fertilizers resulted in losses of nitrogen into the water and into the atmosphere. Intensive livestock production contributed to the emissions of methane (CH4).

Rising temperatures, reduction of water resources in many areas, changes in the frequency and distribution of rainfall, droughts and floods, etc., directly affect agriculture. Every one of these changes can lower the agricultural production in certain areas as much as traditional crops are abandoned and lost for future climate adaptation. Increases in temperature will help pests and diseases to proliferate in crops with a consequent reduction in both the quantity and quality of agricultural production.

Furthermore, livestock production is directly affected by climate change too. Under high temperatures herds suffer more illnesses and stress as a consequence of a decrease in grazing and grazing time as less rainfall will disrupt the seasonal availability of pastures. Disturbances over crop forage will reduce the herd livestock production while increasing production costs.

We open the debate on livestock production and their effects on ecosystem metabolism (missions of GHGs) by
discussing the production capacity of traditional practices of livestock management in different protected areas in Spain, where adaptation of the vegetation to both managed grazing (forest burning, intensive pastures, seasonal migration) and severe climate has shaped the landscape. As an applied use of GHGs monitoring from the Climadat Project, we will debate the variability in mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions by different options of land use management.

P-2217-22

## New global land use under climate change and freshwater restrictions

A. Pastor (1) ; A. Palazzo (2) ; F. Ludwig (1) ; P. Havlik (2) ; P. Kabat (2)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Alliance of agriculture commodities and water resources is subject to changes due to climate change, population increase and changes in dietary patterns. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at monthly scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m2 (RCP8.5), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time-step. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions and parts of South-East Asia where the Water Stress Indicator (WSI) ranges from 0.4 to 1 by 2050. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Some countries such as India expect a significant increase in water demand which might be compensated by an increase in water supply with climate change scenario Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

P-2217-23

## Metrics for the net climate effect of land use change in support of land based mitigation and adaptation policies

L. Perugini (1) ; A. Arneth (2) ; A. Cescati (3) ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudre (4) ; G. Grassi (5) ; J. House (6) ; B. Quesada (2) ; E. Robertson (7) ; M. Santini (1) ; A. Wiltshire (7)

(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Division on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy; (2) KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Risk Management, Ispra, Italy; (4) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-UVSC, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (5) European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Forest resources and climate unit, Ispra, Italy; (6) University of Bristol, School of geographical sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom; (7) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) have a recognized effect on climate, both in terms of changes in the carbon cycle due to changes in vegetation and

soil carbon (biogeochemical effects) and through variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, roughness etc. (biophysical effects). While the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere affects the climate in the long term and at global scale, biophysical effects result in short term changes in seasonal and/or annual surface temperatures with a prevalent local to regional effect. In addition, the climate signal of biogeochemical processes are independent to geographical location of the LULCC, whereas biophysical effects vary greatly in sign and magnitude depending on the latitude and ecosystems where they occur. For example, observations and model results suggest that deforestation has a predominantly warming effect in the tropics due to reduced evapotranspiration, exacerbating GHG effects, and a cooling effect in the boreal regions in the winter due to increased albedo, running counter to GHG effects, with some warming effects due to reduced evapotranspiration in the boreal summer.

The international policy process within the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) focuses entirely on GHG and their global effects. At the local level a combination of the global biogeochemical and local biophysical effects following LULCC are important for local climate change systems, their biodiversity and the water cycle. Policies at the local to regional level that aim to address both mitigation and adaptation objectives will thus be less effective if they ignore the synergies and tradeoffs between biogeochemical and biophysical effects.

The paper presents a tool of practical use in support of assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies, allowing a straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts in different time-transitions. Through a meta-analysis of the existing scientific literature, we quantified how the LULCC-climate change interplay affects regional vs. global scale, and biophysical vs. biogeochemical ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, providing a simple climate metric that summarize the changes in temperature and precipitation following LULCC. Compared to alternative approaches proposed so far, our strategy was to focus on the regional climate signals rather than on global average effects, considering that ecosystems and communities are affected and have to adapt to local climates.

P-2217-24

## Land use response to the climate change in the Great Hungarian Plain?

Z. Pinke (1)

(1) Szent István University, Environmental Protection and Landscape Ecology, Gödöllő, Hungary

This poster presents the concept of interactions between environmental conditions and the productivity as well as the extension of Hungarian arable lands.

Firstly, a descriptive analysis demonstrates the synchronity of the tide of arable lands and climate change. Hungary lies on the border of hot and warm summer subtypes of the humid continental zone. Its plains were transformed into homogeneous grain-producing regions during the 19th century modernization that linked to river regulations. As I see the humidity of the late and post-Little Ice Age (between the mid1870s and the mid1940s) was an important factor in process of this landscape transformation. On the one hand, the late 19th century Hungary replied to the increasing flood-hazard with the intensification of river regulation. On the other hand, the relative precipitation surplus of the humid cycle palpably reduced the drought-pronehood of the Great Hungarian Plain (GHP), thus providing a low risk opportunity to convert wetlands into drylands of thousands of square kilometres. The extension of arable lands reached their saturation level between 1913 and the mid1940s, while the beginning of their decrease overlapped precisely with the end of the humid climatic cycle. This decline has been going on in Hungary since the late 1940s. As a part of this process severe droughts and excess surface water inundations have led to the rapid abandonment of croplands in huge areas (e.g. 1952, 1963, 1999, 2010).

Secondly, the paper presents the results of statistical examinations of seven crops - barley, corn, oats, potato, rye, sunflower, and wheat - losses due to droughts and excess surface water events at a national and a county scale between 1921 and 2010. The relationship between
the Pálfal Drought Index (PaDI), extension of inundated areas and annual crop yields was examined by ANOVA, the differences between crop yields in counties by t-test at a 5% significance level. It is an important methodological aspect that the annual yields of periods with approximately the same technological standards should be compared. Years with extreme yield fluctuations in wartime events (1944-45), technological transition (e.g. 1959-1975), transformation of property and economic structure (1990-1994) were selected. The data were collected from 30 years long meteorological periods (1921-1950, 1951-1980, 1981-2010), four homogenized technological periods were created (1921-1938, 1946-1958, 1976-1989, 1991-2010).

The closest relationship appeared between crop yield losses and values of the drought index in periods with high PaDI standard deviation. The values were collected from 30-years long periods indicate a long-term trend towards an increasing frequency of extreme droughts since the late 1980s. The last technological period (1991-2010) when the standard deviation of drought indices is the highest in the examined 90 years, the yield losses of five out of seven crops indicate a significant and close relation to PaDI values. These results indicate a major transformation in the meteorological conditions of cropland farming. Over the last one and a half decades extreme droughts and inundations have alternated rapidly. Corn deserves a special attention for several reasons. Besides wheat, it is corn that has the most extensive harvest area in Hungary. In the past decade it covered some 26-28% of Hungarian croplands. Since growing season of corn (June-August) is highly exposed to drought, the fluctuation of corn yields showed a close linear relation to drought indices in three out four technological periods and in the three 30-year longer periods (1981 and 2010 R²=0.78; y = -0.4657x + 8,3674; 30 couples).

The most conspicuous phenomenon is that most extremes happened in the last two decades than in the former seven decades. The impact of the climatic variability on the crop yields has been more and more apparent in the regression coefficients. It is partly for this reason that the average yields of the most drought-prone counties that lies in the GHP and covered the majority of former floodplains fall below the national average. Such a high level of exposure to drought fundamentally queries the economic rationale of cropland farming, led to the abandonment of vast areas of cropland and justifies the objective of the European Water Framework Directive that is the water retention in the former floodplains of the Great Hungarian Plain.

P-2217-25

Carbon emission from land-use change is substantially enhanced by agricultural management

TAM. Pugh (1); A. Arneth (1); S. Olin, (2); A. Ahlström, (2); A. Arvanitis, (1); A. Bayer, (1); Gk. Klein (3); M. Lindeskog, (2); G. Schurgers, (4)

(1) Karlsberg Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Parknkirchen, Germany, 30434 Lund University, Lund, Sweden;

(2) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (4) University of Copenhagen, Department of geosciences and natural resource management, Copenhagen, Denmark

It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (ELUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (SL). In the absence of appropriate global-scale observations, process-based terrestrial biosphere models can facilitate understanding of present-day carbon cycling, whilst also underpinning objective models of carbon cycle and ESMs. Yet representations of many fundamental processes in these models are neglected or immature, especially regarding land management. Here we quantify the effect of representing agricultural land management in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative ELUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes. The vast majority of ESMs in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting an overestimation in their terrestrial carbon sink, or an underestimation of SL,

of up to 1.0 Pg C-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but had little influence on ELUC.

P-2217-26

Avoided Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a Land Surface Model (CLM) with an Economic Model (iPETS)

X. Ren (1); M. Weitzel (2); B. O'Neill (3); P. Meiyappan, (4); S. Levis, (2); E. Balistreri, (5); M. Dalton (6)

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, France; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America; (4) University of Illinois, Champaign, United States of America; (5) School of Mines, Golden, United States of America; (6) NOAA, Seattle, United States of America

Agricultural systems not only provide food but also are an important part of the economy for many countries. Crop yields are highly dependent on the level and variation of temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration and extreme events, including heat waves, droughts, and storms, and are therefore vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We will assess the impacts of climate change under two different climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) and two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) in order to quantify the reduction in impacts on agricultural systems as climate change is reduced, and the dependence of this reduction on the socioeconomic development pathway that is assumed.

Previous studies have investigated climate effects on crop yield as well as implications for agricultural markets, prices, land use, and food security. Regarding the climate effect on yield, studies tend to take two different approaches: process-based crop models (e.g. Yao et al., 2007; Moriondo et al., 2011) or statistical relationships between climate variables and yields (e.g., Lobell et al., 2011; Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). Both approaches show that climate change can have positive or negative impacts on different crop types at different locations and over time. Studies that go beyond impacts on crop yields to investigate effects on agricultural markets (e.g., Nelson et al., 2011) also show that there can be agricultural winners and losers, especially over the next few decades, while over time if the degree of climate change worsens then impacts turn more uniformly negative. Recently, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) published a set of studies (Agricultural Economics, vol. 45(1)) examining the effect of climate change relative to a no-climate-impact baseline. Fewer studies have evaluated the benefits of mitigation on agricultural system, i.e., avoided impacts.

In this study, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use, and emissions, will be used in conjunction with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and particularly with the Community Land Model (CLM), to evaluate the consequences of reducing climate change from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. The analysis will be global, with results in iPETS produced at the level of nine world regions, and will span the period 2005-2100. We will employ climate impacts on crop yield calculated with CLM, driven by CESM simulations of these two RCPs from the CMIP5 database. These yield effects will be applied within the iPETS model, imposed on baseline (no climate) scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5. These baseline scenarios will be produced in iPETS by tuning to existing IAM simulations for these scenarios. CLM-based estimates of arable land yield effects on climate will be aggregated from the grid cell level to the level of the aggregate economic regions in iPETS, and applied to the respective parameters in the model. By comparing the outcomes from two alternative scenarios, we are able to evaluate the avoided impacts of climate change due to climate effects on agricultural systems. We will measure impacts in terms of yield, food prices, consumption, and GDP.
# Land-use/cover changes in the Uttarakhand Himalaya: assessment and mapping

VP. Sati (1)

(1) Mizoram University, Aizawl, Geography and Resource Management, Aizawl, Mizoram, India

Land is a dynamic and complex combination of factors – geology, topography, hydrology, soils, microclimatic and climatic conditions of plants and animals. Land-use stands for the pattern of man's activity on a piece of land for economic functions and land cover changes denote to the type of feature, changes on the earth's surface. This paper aims to assess the land-use/cover changes in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. It also examines the factors affecting land-use/cover changes. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used for conducting this study. Data were obtained from the primary and secondary sources. A case study of 12 villages (Khada, Bara, and Bara) was carried out and a household level survey was conducted on land-use/cover changes. Secondary data were gathered from the government records i.e. State Economic and Statistical Directorate, Dehradun. Land-use data from 1980 to 2009 were gathered and land cover changes were assessed through using various statistical methods and mapping. Participatory research appraisal was used to elaborate data through rapid field visit of the region. Farmers, extension workers and officials of various departments related to agriculture, horticulture and forest were interviewed to know the present trend of land-use/cover change. Five categories of land-use such as forestland, uncultivable land comprises: area under non-agriculture and waste land, other uncultivable land comprises; cultivable waste, pasture, and land under nurseries, orchards, trees and bushes; fallow land and net area sown were separately discussed. This study shows that forest covers 61% area followed by sown area (13%). Out of the total area sown, ferril patches of tari (the plain area comprises Udham Singh Nagar) and Doon valley (comprises by plain area of Dehradun and Pauri districts) occupy above 70% area sown while, the other part of the state, which is known as the mainland of Uttarakhand (comprises 92.6% geographical area) has very less sown area. Other uncultivable land covers 16%, uncultivable land is 8% and fallow land is 2%. Temperature forests – pine, oak and coniferous – constitute forest land. In the mainland, the uncultivable land is generally found in the valley regions and in the mid-altitudes and it is characterised by the narrow patches of terraced fields. Cultivation of subsistence cereal crops dominates the cropping pattern. Area under cash crops, fruits and vegetable is quite less. The land under cultivable waste, pasture, nurseries, orchards, trees and bushes is also found in the mid-altitudes and the highlands. Land cover changes were assessed. About 1.83% forest land was increased during 1980–2009. In Dehradun District, 10.6% forestland was increased. Meanwhile, area sown was almost stable in the mainland whereas in Dehradun district, about 6.06% area sown was decreased. In a nutshell, changes in all categories of land were noticed from 3.9% in other uncultivable land to 0.9% in area sown. Climate change impact on forest and cropping pattern was noticed. Within forest land-use, area under pasture, and oak forest was observed in increase and oak forest cover decreased subsequently. This was occurred mainly due to warming of valleys and mid-altitudes. Similarly, cropping pattern has largely been changed from cultivation of subsistence cereal crops to cultivation of paddy, wheat and cash crops, as the case study shows. The major driving forces of land-use/cover changes were illustrated. State's conservation measures (Forest Act of 1982), People's participation (establishment of Van Paniya) and the biggest Indian desert – The Thar Desert. The population in this region has been increasing at a rate faster than national average. This has led to increased pressure on land for food security of the increasing population and fodder security for the livestock. Due to less rainfall, people in this region practice a mixed farming system and livestock forms an integral part of their livelihoods. Some of the districts of this region are also characterised by a livestock density that is even higher than population density. The composition of livestock has also seen a change over the years in this region with the cattle and buffalo population being replaced by small ruminants. This is mainly because of low fodder requirement of the latter as compared to the former. Another important feature of this region which is also important as one of the drivers of desertification is the source of irrigation. In most of the districts of this region

# Impacts of changes in land surface processes on the West African Monsoon variability : Results from the LUCID inter-

## comparison project

S. Sy (1); B. Sultan (2); N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (3); AT; Gaye (4); N. Ousmane (5); M. Wade, (6); F. Yohann (7)

(1) LPAOSF/LOCEAN, Dakar, Senegal; (2) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédon, France; (4) University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Laboratory of atmospheric and ocean physics, Dakar, Senegal; (5) ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal; (6) Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Lpaosf, Dakar, Senegal; (7) KINOME, Paris, Paris, France

West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface-atmosphere interactions. The effect of changes in land surface processes on West African Monsoon (WAM) variability have been found very impracticant. In this study, we analyze the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID uses seven land-atmosphere models with common experimental configurations to explain the strong and constant impact of the land-use and land cover change (LULCC) between the annual and the seasonal period and present day. Focusing our analysis on Sahel and Guinea zone where the changes in the extent covered of crops and pastures between 1870 and 1992 exceeds 5%. These studies have analyzed the performances of the individual GCMs/LSMs model involved in LUCID to simulate the WAM interannual variability. The results showed that the magnitude of these variability varies significantly from model to model resulting two major 'features' varying from one model to another. These features are contribution of one model to sensitivity to LULCC. Changes in land surface properties in each individual model depend on how these represent and respond to a land-cover perturbation have been shown, as well as their simulated impacts on fluxes, rainfall and surface temperature. Finally, the climatic impacts of LULCC to those resulting from the changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and increased greenhouse gases on WAM were evaluated. We found that for a number of variables (available energy, temperature, available water etc.), the amplitude of the impact of LULCC is similar to the impact of increased greenhouse gases and warmer oceans, but with opposite sign.

# Land Use Change, Desertification and Development Nexus in the Thar Desert Region of Rajasthan, India

N. Varghese (1)

(1) Indira Gandhi National Open University, School of Extension and Development Studies, Delhi, India

Desertification is the persistent degradation of dryland ecosystems due to human activities and variations in climate. Currently, 41 percent of the landmass worldwide is prone to desertification and around two billion people are affected by desertification and degradation of land. The major deserts in the world, particularly in China, Mongolia, Africa and India are expanding at an alarming rate. The expansion of deserts implies lesser availability of land for agriculture and allied activities which provide food and livelihood security to millions of people across the world. The chief drivers of desertification include deforestation, over grazing, over cultivation, logging, pressure of population, industrialization and poor land use practices.

Planning Commission of India has identified 15 resource development regions in the country, also known as the Agro Climatic Zones. Among the various regions, the Western Dry Region covers nine districts of the state of Rajasthan. The the portion of Rajasthan is desiccated and houses the biggest Indian desert – The Thar Desert. The population in this region has been increasing at a rate faster than national average. This has led to increased pressure on land for food security of the increasing population and fodder security for the livestock. Due to less rainfall, people in this region practice a mixed farming system and livestock forms an integral part of their livelihoods. Some of the districts of this region are also characterised by a livestock density that is even higher than population density. The composition of livestock has also seen a change over the years in this region with the cattle and buffalo population being replaced by small ruminants. This is mainly because of low fodder requirement of the latter as compared to the former. Another important feature of this region which is also important as one of the drivers of desertification is the source of irrigation. In most of the districts of this region
more than 80 percent of the irrigation and in some districts even up to 100 percent of the irrigation is done by wells and tube wells. This has important implication from the view point of desertification and sustainable agricultural practices considering the already low levels of ground water in the desert regions. The forest cover in these nine districts is showing a declining trend owing to the land being diverted to cultivation. Besides forests, the area under other land uses is also being diverted to cultivation. This can have serious implications on sustainability of the livelihoods and extent of poverty of the people in these districts. This in turn has implications on the health and other human development indicators. In this paper, the author has used Markov Chain analysis to see the direction of change in the land use pattern in the districts covered under the Western Dry Region. It was observed that among the various land use patterns, there was a high probability of the land under forest being diverted to cultivation. This could have serious implications in terms of desertification as all the nine districts covered under the Western Dry Region of Rajasthan are already very low in terms of forest area. The author has also examined the linkages between various human development indicators of these districts in light of the changing land use pattern in the districts. For this purpose, using various development and desertification indicators, respective indices were worked out for the nine districts. The districts were then ranked on the basis of both the indices and it was observed that there was a negative correlation between development and desertification. The districts which were relatively better off in terms of development indicators were incidentally the districts having worst desertification indicators. A negative correlation was observed between development and desertification. This leads to a very important question that is development being done at a cost? In light of the findings of this study, the author has also suggested policy prescriptions for arresting desertification in the Tar Desert Region of Rajasthan.

P-2217-30

## The Morphology of Urban Risk to Flooding In Metro-Manila, Philippines: Patterns of Exposure and Vulnerability Based on Informativity and Land Use/ Cover Change

MCT. Vicente (1); GT. Narisma (2); FP. Siringan (3); MAY. Lozyaga, (4); CFP. Del (1); PG. Sanchez (1); E. Gozo (2); JEG. Perezon (3); RS. Dayanew (1)

(1) Manila Observatory, Geomatics for environment and development program, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (2) Manila Observatory, Regional climate systems program, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (3) University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (4) Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines

The Project, "International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change-Coastal Areas at Risk (IRIACC-CCAR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities" is on-going from 2011-2016. Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) manages IRIACC-CCAR in collaboration with three main research granting bodies, known as the Tri-Council: The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). Under this transdisciplinary IRIACC-CCAR Project, Metro-Manila is a study site, along with Bangkok, Lagos and Vancouver. A component of this research for Metro-Manila, undertaken by the Manila Observatory with local partners and described below, is the study on the morphology of urban risk to flooding, which applies multi-temporal and multi-resolution remote sensing and geographic information systems (RS-GIS).

The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) Generate historical and updated locations of urban flood settlements, (2) Identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the said settlements in relation to other land use/ cover and infrastructure, the former especially considering residential areas, commercial and industrial sites as well as vegetation, (3) Describe the patterns of urbanization and physical development, such as by the emergence, growth, spread and even the disappearance of the said human settlements, (4) Study the factors contributing to flood risk, which then need to be addressed.

Part I of the research gives the context of informality and vulnerability to flooding in terms of general land use/ cover

change from 1972-2009 (LANDSATs courtesy of NASA). Part II involves detection of informal settlements, that is, in 1997 and 2000 (SPOT courtesy of NAMRIA) as well as 2010 (ALOS AVNIR and PRISM courtesy of JAXA). Part III then concerns overlaying thematic layers of flood risk, where Risk ≈ f(Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability) (UNDP 2004 and UNDR0 1979). In terms of hazard, this flood risk is especially attributed to low elevation coastal zones or LECZs, which are continuous areas along shores that are equal to or less than 10 meters above sea levels (masl) and, as such, are prone to inundation (McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B. April 2017). Moreover and as a reflection of poor drainage, river choke points were also observed and validated (Siringan, F. and Perez, J.E., on-going research).

Resulting maps show an overall increasing trend in expansion or growth and distribution or spread of the informal settlements. These are found in marginal, hazard-prone and compromising locations, such as coasts, riverbanks and landfills but near advantageous sites, like major roads as well as industries and commerce. Also, the 1997 and 2000 clustering of informal settlements around socioeconomic attractors seem to give way to more movements towards the fringes of the metropolis in 2010. Dense and overcrowded formal and informal communities ("mixed" settlements), showing comparatively less signs of structural degradation, initially emerged and then declined. This appears closely associated with income and land tenure, which need to be studied more deeply. Very high resolution (VHR) satellite imageries are then necessary in order to monitor informal housing and livelihood, given their dispersion as small and large agglomerations as well as relatively small and degraded structures or spatial units. Besides poor drainage, factors contributing to flooding include urban expansion, densification, industrialization and commercialization and decline in vegetation. The study of broad and detailed land use/ cover across time may also benefit from hyperspectral satellite imageries. Salient patterns of exposure and vulnerability to flooding then form evidence-based decision-support towards better planning for preparedness and resilience, as by co-beneficial climate change adaptation as well as risk reduction and management (CCA-DRRM).

P-2217-31

## The Changes of Crop Distribution and its Water Balance Effects in the West Liaohe River basin, China

Y. Yang (1); L. Yang (1)

(1) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China

As one of the origins of dry farming in North China, West Liaohe River Basin is located in the districts with high production of maize, which is the main producing area in China and the important commodity grain base. As a sensitive area of global change, West Liaohe River basin is located in the eastern agriculture and animal husbandry edge of the western of Northeast Plain, which showed an obvious warming trend and frequent drought in the recent years. Due to the increase of population, water resources development and utilization activities is increased, and the land desertification, vegetation degradation problems are becoming serious by the interaction of human activity and climate change. This study taking the West Liaohe River basin as a case study area, analyzing of the crops distribution changes and spatial agglomeration situation in 2000, 2005 and 2010, using remote sensing tools and GIS technology. On this base, using the water balance model, quantitatively calculate the different periods of the water balance of the different crop types based on GIS technology and mathematical statistics in the West Liaohe River basin, and then systematically evaluated the water balance effects of crop distribution variations from 2000 to 2010, and scenario simulated the water balance effects of crop layout changes in different climate conditions, by establishing the water balance response statistics model. The study indicates that, (1) Water resources pressure substantially reduced from 2000 to 2005, by 26.71hundred million m3. And increased slowly from 2005 to 2010, by 5.50 hundred million m3. (2) The actual irrigation increase 14.31 hundred million m3, accounting for 26.81% of available water in the West Liaohe River basin from 2000 to 2005, influenced by the main crops area increased substantially. And water resources pressure continue to rise, the actual irrigation increase 0.88 hundred million m3 in the West Liaohe River basin from
2005 to 2010, influenced by the main crop areas increased slowly. (3) The pressure of water resources was enhanced significantly in the West Liaohe River basin under different climatic conditions (normal year and dry year), the actual water demand for irrigation were respectively 12.94 hundred million m3 and 16.43 hundred million m3, there was serious contradiction between the water resources

supply and demand. (4) Adjusting crop planting structure, developing water-saving agriculture and improving the utilization efficiency of water resources would become the main route of agricultural sustainable development in the West Liaohe River basin.

# 2218 - Land-based mitigation: agriculture, forests, bioenergy

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2218-01

#### Emission and mitigation hotspots in the land use sector across the tropics

M. Herold (1) ; M. Rufino (2) ; RR. Roman Cuesta (1) ; L. Verchot (2) ; V. De Sy (3) ; S. Carter (1) ; A. Valerio (1) ; C. Martius (2)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia; (3) Wageningen University, Centre for Geo-Information, Wageningen, Netherlands

Deforestation is the largest net source of GHG emissions in the tropics, and mitigation initiatives such as REDD+ should consider agriculture as it is a key driver of deforestation. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA), so far an agriculture technologies focused exercise, can potentially reduce deforestation as the underlying assumption is that higher yields take pressure off forests. However, this cannot be taken for granted and deserves a closer look from science, policy and investment perspectives. If implemented in the right way, CSA has the potential for win-win outcomes as CSA aims to achieve both mitigation and adaptation goals. This also fits the recent focus in climate debates on agriculture as a driver of deforestation and ecosystem degradation, and can become an integral part of the solution to saving the world's forests.

In this session, we present new scientific findings on how agriculture and REDD+ are linked, how these are addressed in country strategies, and how an integrated perspective can exploit synergies and address conflicts. New data showing where and by how much agriculture is driving deforestation, and the potential emissions reductions from reducing this driver will be discussed. We present a new tropical analysis on the contribution to GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector that offers a spatially explicit view of where the AFOLU hotspots of emissions are located and what is the relative contribution of forests vs non-forests we also analyze the potential to achieve mitigation through CSA. Presentations will be short to allow for a moderated discussion. The presentation and related discussions aim to stimulate an interactive debate around the possible linkages between REDD+ and CSA - both in policy and practice. The results can feed into ongoing discussions and ideas of a broader "land use agreement" incorporating both REDD+ and agriculture that is still high on the UNFCCC agenda. With the new data and results generated by several research partners, we are able to underpin the discussions with better understanding and bring critical issues to the forefront, such as: where and how can land-based mitigation through CSA be successful in reducing GHG emissions?

### K-2218-02

#### Developing a sustainable charcoal sector in Africa

H. Neufeldt (1) ; P. Dobie (1) ; M. Iiyama, (1) ; K. Sander, (2)

(1) ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) World Bank, Washington DC, United States of America

Charcoal is a vital source of energy for millions of people around the globe and one of the most commercialized resources in sub-Saharan Africa, yet policies to effectively govern the sector are lacking in many countries. Authorities in countries around the world tend to view charcoal production and use as an environmental and health problem. However, if managed properly charcoal provides a low-cost and locally available energy source that has the potential to become sustainable and contribute significantly to poverty alleviation.

This paper discusses the main obstacles to a sustainable charcoal value chain in sub-Saharan Africa and identifies key areas where interventions are required to improve sustainability while ensuring charcoal continues to provide livelihood benefits. It provides evidence of how a sustainable, transparent and properly regulated and governed charcoal sector could be part of the solution to energy access and economic challenges faced by many developing countries.

The paper summarises the most up-to-date literature on the issue at this time. Although the focus is on sub-Saharan Africa, some of the recommendations may be equally applicable to other charcoal-dependent developing countries.

**Key recommendations**

* Improve sustainability in the charcoal sector, and reduce associated degradation, through exploring community-based forest management options, growing trees outside forests, strengthening tenure and property rights, and implementing guidelines on sustainable harvesting and production.

* Improve governance across the charcoal value chain to create a regulated, transparent and coordinated sector which formally contributes to national economies.

* Invest in capacity development in improved kiln technologies, co-management of public or protected forests, agroforestry, woodlots, small-scale plantations, and financial management and reporting to improve sustainability and governance of the sector.

* Increase participation by disempowered stakeholders in the charcoal sector to encourage greater uptake of more efficient technologies and more sustainable management practices.

Transform the negative image of charcoal, allow sub-national governments to earn charcoal revenues and tap into internationally recognized mechanisms to create incentives for investment in a sustainable charcoal sector.

### K-2218-03

#### ORACLE: Opportunities and Risks of Agro-systems & forests in response to Climate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France

N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (1) ; I. Garcia De Cortazar-Atauri (2) ; JD. Bontemps (3) ; JC. Calvet (4) ; D. Carrer (5) ; J. Caubel (1) ; P. Delacote (6) ; PA. Jayet (7) ; N. Laanaia (1) ; L. Antonello (8) ; D. Loustau (9) ; A. Lungarska (7) ; S. Wieruszeski (1)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (2) INRA, Agroclim, Avignon, France; (3) AgroParisTech, Leforb, Nancy, France; (4) Meteo-France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; (5) Meteo France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France; (6) INRA, Economics, Nancy, France; (7) INRA, Economie publique, Thivernois-Grignon, France; (8) AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d'économie forestière, Nancy, France; (9) INRA, ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon, France

Our rapidly changing climate significantly affects production of agricultural and forestry products throughout the world, with potential impacts on land-use practices and land-cover choices. In parallel, socio-economic decisions and environmental policies are evolving as agriculture and forestry are called to play a major role in the cost-effective climate mitigation portfolio. The Common Agricultural Policy for example is moving towards "de-coupling" and "greener" schemes, with increased concern for the environment. There is also growing pressure on scarce resources and increasing competition over soils for the production of food, feed, wood, energy and a broad range
of environmental services.

To provide insights on a) the potential risks and opportunities for agriculture and forestry, and b) possible future patterns of land use, the scientific challenge is to account simultaneously for i) climate change and its expected effects on productivity and more generally on the functioning of agro-ecosystems, and ii) the evolution of the socio-economic and policy environment.

Yet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports have reviewed model projections of climate change impacts over Europe but most of those projections did not adequately account for climatic variability (in climate projections and impacts). The potential for risks or benefits have therefore not yet been systematically explored, thus reducing our level of confidence in those projections. It is then imperative to increase our understanding of the range of plausible impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and forests to better work on adaptation strategies for these sectors. This can only be done using a combination of a) diverse modelling approaches and observations, b) reliable quantification of uncertainty, and c) syntheses of published results.

The ORACLE project (https://oracle.lscjeaps.ipsl.fr/) tried to systematically explore the potential implications of various scenarios of climate change and changes in socio-economic and policy environment for land-use in France, taking explicitly into account the link between uncertainty on climatic drivers and ecosystem responses on the one hand, and adaptation decisions on the other hand. ORACLE brings together climatologists, agronomists, economists, hydrologists and statisticians with a common goal: better inform the relationships between climate constraints and land uses. We focus on French major anthropogenic ecosystems (crops, pasture and managed forests). We have tried to make the best use of the most recent findings of various projects and available databases, the most relevant literature, and the most up-to-date models of vegetation and economics. Our time scale of interest spans the very recent past (last 30 years), and the future regional climate projections for the 21st century with various horizons of interests (2050 and 2100).

Evaluation of potential risks or opportunities for cropland have been examined via a suite of indicators that are either computed directly from meteorological variables, or from generic biosphere models. Climatic indicators provide information on climate only, but with a selection of those that are relevant for a specific managed system (e.g. arable, climatic & Biotechnical indicators are directly computed from meteorological variables but designed to be ecosystem-specific (Caubel et al. in press). Other Eco-climatic & Biotechnical indicators are derived from simulations using generic vegetation models, with a prior definition and calibration of the indicators. The areas where a specific crop type is either at risk or potentially cultivable based on an analysis of the combined changes in all indicators.

## O-2218-01

### Assessing low emissions development pathways for the agricultural and land use sector

U. Kleinwechter (1) ; P. Havlik (1) ; N. Forsell (1) ; M. Gusti (1) ; YW. Zhang (1) ; O. Fricko (1) ; K. Riahi (1) ; M. Obersteiner (1)

(1) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

With a contribution of almost one quarter to total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated abatement potential, its role as a source of biomass for bioenergy production, and potential for sequestration from afforestation, the agricultural, forestry, and land use sector (AFOLU) has to be an integral part of any global low emissions development strategy for climate change mitigation. Studies have sought to identify the required contribution of the sector to long-term climate stabilization and have evaluated its technical and economical mitigation potential. Detailed yet comprehensive analyses of the low emissions agricultural development pathways that form part and result from climate change mitigation strategies are scant. It is not yet well understood where to set priorities for mitigation efforts, both geographically and sectorally. It is further not clear which role specific technologies aimed at reducing GHG emissions in agricultural production processes will

have to play.

Applying the IIASA integrated assessment modelling framework with the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) used for the AFOLU sector we create mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions to levels consistent with attaining a 2-degree climate target. The analysis is carried out for three Shared Socio-economic Development Pathways. A basic set of model simulations is carried out with the existing set of agricultural technologies to create standard mitigation cases for each SSP. An extended set of simulations implements additional assumptions on add-on technologies for mitigation in agricultural production processes.

The extent of agricultural mitigation to limit emissions to levels consistent with a two degree target is 2.1 GtCO2eq, while 2.9 GtCO2eq and 2.8 GtCO2eq are the two SSPs, and SSP3, respectively. Abatement of emissions from land use change (LUC) consistently accounts for around 80% of the total. Mitigation potentials of CH 4 and N2O from agricultural production are around 11% to 14% and 7%, respectively.

An assessment of priorities for AFOLU mitigation highlights the fundamental role that developing and emerging economies will have to play. Mitigation efforts should be prioritized to regions with the highest economic abatement potentials at emissions price levels consistent with the two degree target, namely Brazil and the rest of South America, the Congo Basin and Western Africa, Southern Africa, and China. Within those regions and depending on regional emissions patterns and the resulting abatement potentials, either a focus on the reduction of LUC CO2 or on emissions from agricultural production should be prioritized. In the regions with large areas of humid tropical forests mitigation efforts should focus on the reduction of deforestation, hence mitigation of land use change emissions. These include the Congo Basin and Southern Africa, where almost the entire abatement potential relates to LUC. In China, mitigation efforts are required in agricultural production. The reduction of CH4 from enteric fermentation accounts for about 50% of total abatement and CH4 and N2O from crop production, including rice, and manure management contribute another 25%. Brazil and Western Africa have also abatement potential from the reduction of LUC CO2. In both regions, however, the reduction of CH4 from enteric fermentation constitutes an important part of the mitigation portfolio.

Mitigation technologies are found to have an important role to play in particular regions that should prioritize abatement of agricultural emissions. While mitigation technologies can increase overall global AFOLU abatement only marginally, they can have significant impacts on emissions from crop and livestock production. In China, add-on technologies potentially contribute 4% additional abatement in crop production and 23% in livestock production. In Brazil, mitigation of GHG from livestock production could be raised by up to 34%. Finally, in spite of the currently high importance of land use change and associated emissions, future trends suggest that more priority should be given to mitigation of agricultural emissions and the use of add-on mitigation technologies when moving into the second half of the century.

## O-2218-02

### Land-based mitigation: a social-ecological positive feedback loop? Some insights from the Global Land Project

S. Boillat (1) ; KH. Erb (2) ; O. Mertz (3) ; F. Scarpa (1) ; P. Verburg (4)

(1) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (2) University of Klagenfurt, Institute for social ecology, Vienna, Austria; (3) University of Copenhagen, Department of geography and geology, Oster, Denmark; (4) VU University, Institute of environmental studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Feeding a growing human population, while at the same time mitigating climate change, is a major challenge of this century. The competing demand for land for providing, among others, food, fiber, energy, ecosystem services and carbon stocks, and stocks, make land-based mitigation a particularly tough task (Smith et al. 2013). Sparing land leads to an important trade-off
with annual crops either in simple specie agroforestry or mixed tree species agroforestry and the traditional twice-a-year rice cropping system. Farm resource flow maps were developed in order to represent all of the structures and characteristics of each farm. GHG-source and -sink compartments' inventory was carried out and emission factors adapted to each zone were selected from the literature. A local/specific farm carbon footprint calculator was developed. The results showed that farm carbon footprint average amounted to 3.04 Mg CO2eq ha⁻¹ and 7.69 Mg CO2eqha⁻¹ in the central and in the east coast respectively. Farms in the East Coast showed high carbon footprint because of the traditional twice-a-year rice cropping. In the Central Highlands, the intensified rice cropping system reduced the farm carbon footprint by reducing methane emission, composting organic residues reduces also farm carbon footprint up to 30% by improving carbon storage in soils. In the East Coast, agroforestry allowed a farm carbon footprint reduction between 15 to 51% due to carbon storage in woody biomass. These results showed another aspect of the beneficial impacts of agroecological practices when adopted by smallholder farmers in Madagascar, at farm scale, to climate change mitigation.

## 2218-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2218-01

#### The contribution of agroforestry systems to climate change mitigation - Assessment of C storage in soils in a Mediterranean context

C. Chenu (1); R. Cardinael (2); T. Chevallier (3); A. Germon (3); C. Jourdan (4); C. Dupraz (5); B. Barthes (3); M. Bernoux (3)

(1) Agroparistech, Umr eco&Sols, Grignon, France; (2) IRD and AgroParisTech, Umr eco&Sols, Montpellier, France; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr eco&Sols, Montpellier, France; (4) CIRAD, Umr eco&Sols, Montpellier, France; (5) INRA, Umr system, Montpellier, France

Agroforestry is a land use type where crops and trees are grown together in the same place and at the same time. Agroforestry systems have the advantage of providing multiple products (e.g. wood, fruits) or services (e.g. biodiversity enhancement, erosion control) whilst maintaining agricultural production. If they are known to store carbon into the biomass of the trees, they could also increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. However their impact has rarely been studied under temperate or Mediterranean conditions and has mostly concerned superficial soil layers. Our objectives were (i) to quantify and spatialize SOC stocks in an agroforestry system, (ii) to provide an adjacent agricultural plot, (iii) to assess what SOC fractions are responsible for possible additional carbon storage, and (iv) to quantify all organic inputs entering the soil. The trial was established in 1995 in southern France. Hybrid walnut trees are intercropped with durum wheat. SOC stocks were measured on 200 soil cores down to 2 m soil depth, and particle-size fractionation was performed on 64 soil samples. Carbon stocks of trees and of the herbaceous vegetation in the tree rows were also quantified. A trench was dug to 4 m soil depth to quantify tree fine root distribution and biomass. Minihizotrons were installed at different depths to study soil fine root turnover. Annual additional SOC storage rates were estimated at 259 ± 59 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (0-30 cm) and at 350 ± 88 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (0-100 cm). Additional storage was mainly due to participate organic matter fractions (> 50 µm) and 10 µm clay particles. The total amount of carbon in the tree rows was taken into account, total organic carbon storage rate reached 1.11 ± 0.16 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. High tree root densities were observed at depth, but root turnover decreased with depth. Agroforestry systems provide high amounts of carbon at depth than other agricultural practices, such as no-till farming, and could therefore provide a more stable C storage in the long-term.

This study was funded by ADEME within the Agripol project as part of the Reactif program.

between the need to perform agricultural intensification, which increases emissions, and at the same time reduce emissions through the reduction of deforestation and land cover change. While the share of total anthropogenic emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (including deforestation) has been diminishing, emissions from agriculture have continued to grow steadily (Tubiello et al. 2015). Furthermore, new research has found that land management impact on surface temperature are substantial and have been overlooked up to now, stressing the need to integrate land management to improve assessment of human impacts on the climate (Luysaert et al. 2014). This contribution has the objective to give some insights into possible synergies, trade-offs and feedback loops related to land-based mitigation measures. It builds on different research achievements of the Global Land Project, part of the Future Earth program, which hosts the largest community of active researchers and practitioners in land system science. Insights from two GLP endorsed projects related to REDD+, REDD-PAC in Brazil and the Congo Basin and I-REDD+ in Southeast Asia allow to identify methodological challenges in implementing land-based mitigation measures and assessing their impacts on biodiversity, food security and forest carbon stocks. These challenges include 1) the definition of reference emission levels in highly dynamic land use and management change contexts; 2) the estimation and integration of carbon stocks and lands in degraded forests, abandoned lands and mosaic landscapes; 3) the need for broader and more complex criteria for forest definition, 4) matching spatially explicit data to assess possible synergies and trade-offs between desired functions of land, like for example carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and 5) the assessment of just benefit distribution and risk of elite capture of incentives related to land-based mitigation. On the basis of these challenges, we discuss the potential of new concepts for measuring and measuring land-use intensity to assess the possible impacts and feedback loops related to land-based mitigation measures.

### O-2218-03

#### Agroecological practices adopted by Malagasy farmers to reduce farms carbon footprint in the Central (Itasy) and East Coast (Analanjirofo) of Madagascar

N. Rakotovao (1); J. Razakaratrimo (1); TM. Razafimbelo (2); S. Rokasotamimanana (3); M. Jahiel (4); A. Albrecht (5) (3)

(1) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des Radiolotopes, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (2) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des Radiolotopes, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (3) Agrisid International, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (4) Centre Technique Horticole de Tamatave, Tamatave, Madagascar; (5) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr eco&Sols, Montpellier, France

For decades, Malagasy farmers have to deal with the low performance of the agricultural system and cope with the threat of food insecurity. This low productivity is caused by various factors including lack of means of production and degradation of natural resources such as loss of soil fertility. In addition, the effects of climate variability constrained farmers to shift constantly cropping calendars. Therefore, agroforestry was proposed to farmers on one hand to cope with food insecurity, and on the other hand to increase food production and diversifying crops in order to get more sources of incomes and on another hand to restore the production environment such as watersheds, soil and water availability and to contribute to climate change adaptation. First, this work aimed to estimate the carbon footprint of farms in two regions located in the Central and the East Coast of Madagascar. Secondly, the contribution and influence of the agroecological practices adopted by farmers to carbon footprinting at farm scale was assessed. The annual flux of the three main greenhouse gases encountered in the agricultural sector including the carbon dioxide (CO₂), the methane (CH₄) and the nitrous oxide (N₂O) expressed in CO₂ equivalent is considered as the carbon footprint of each farm. Twenty smallholder farms selected from farm typologies per region were studied: twelve for the Central Highlands and eight at the East Coast. Farms located in the central region were characterized by intensification of annual cropping systems using agroecological practices such as intensified rice system which alternates flooding and drying of rice fields, composting organic residues and planting fruit trees in association with annual cropping systems. Agricultural activities of farms located in the East Coast were based on clove plantation associated
# The contribution of agroforestry systems for climate change mitigation - A systematic analysis

D. Feliciano (1); D. Nayak, (1); P. Smith (2); E. Wollenberg, (3); H. Neufeldt (4); J. Hillier, (1)

(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

(2) University of Aberdeen, Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom;

(3) Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, School of Environment and Natural Resources, Vermont, United States of America; (4) CIRAF, Nairobi, Kenya

Climate change mitigation and food security are two of the main challenges of human society. Agroforestry systems, defined as the presence of trees on external and internal boundaries, cropland, homestead plots or on any other available niche of farmland, can provide both positive and negative change to food. There are several types of agroforestry systems with different rates of above ground and soil carbon (C) sequestration. The amount of carbon sequestered will depend on the type of system, climate and region. We undertook a meta-analysis that included data collection from several studies on carbon sequestration for different agroforestry systems, climates and regions in the world. The objective was to provide information on more types of agroforestry systems than those considered by the IPCC. The results from the meta-analysis show that greater carbon sequestration occurs when the land use change is from cropland to a woodlot system in the case of above ground carbon sequestration, and from fallow to a woodlot system in the case of soil carbon sequestration. Results also show that tropical climates are the most favourable above ground carbon sequestration in agroforestry systems. Time since the change in land use is another variable to take into account, as soil carbon sequestration is generally negative until 5 years after the transition to an agroforestry system. Our analysis provides a wider range of options that can inform practitioners in case they also need to base their choice of agroforestry system in relation to the carbon sequestration benefits. Carbon stocks before land use change, the variance and the soil sampling design were the main gaps in the literature reviewed. These gaps should be addressed in future studies if the implementation of agroforestry systems is considered as having an important role for C sequestration.

# Development of a global level decision support tool to reduce agricultural emissions

D. Feliciano (1); D. Nayak, (1); S. Vetter, (1); J. Hillier, (1)

(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

The tool described is an Excel-based tool which brings together several empirical models to estimate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in rice, cropland and livestock systems, and to provide information about the most effective mitigation options. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated in terms of total GHG emitted in kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per hectare (kg CO2eq ha⁻¹) and in terms of GHG intensity, i.e., kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of product (kg CO2eq kg⁻¹). This tool allows for management-relevant GHG assessments to be made with relatively little effort. Management practices are chosen by the user and mitigation options are estimated and ranked according to its mitigation potential. The aim of the tool is to accommodate a range of users from an introductory to advanced level, depending on objectives and issues like time, existing knowledge, or data available. This paper describes the methods used to develop a tool to enable policy makers to explore the most appropriate GHG mitigation options available for any region worldwide. Since the target users are policy-makers and policy advisers, this tool was built to be user-friendly, and not time consuming. Apart from these characteristics, the tool differs from other tools available because it provides information about mitigation options according to a variable baseline management and it does not ask for detailed management practices (low input data required).

# Limiting factors on low uptake of Clean Development Mechanism based projects in Africa: Lost opportunities during first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol

L. Mahamane (1)

(1) African Forest Forum (AFF), Nairobi, Kenya

Africa countries like other developing countries in the rest of the world signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in order to benefit from the clean development mechanism (CDM) funds aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emission from land used based activities. A study was conducted in 10 African countries aimed at identifying the main limiting factors on low uptake of CDM based projects in Africa. The study was a desk review and focused group discussions during training workshops on rapid forest carbon stock appraisal (RaCSA) for academia, research, staff from relevant government ministries, extension services and civil society organisations. The data collected was analyzed using qualitative research approaches where key themes and frames were generated. Quantitative data was analyzed using appropriate statistical procedures. It was evident from the AFCCC database, since 2004 to 2014, only 2% of all registered CDM projects were from Africa as compared to 84% from Asia and Pacific Ocean, 13% from Latin America and Caribbean and 1% from Economies in Transition. Of the 2% from Africa, a very negligible percentage was from biomass as compared to hydro, wind and other GHG gases. This demonstrated a very limited number of CDM projects that could have significantly wide scale on investment, improved economy and mitigation of GHG emissions from land based sector.

The major identified limiting factors on low uptake of CDM forest based and other related projects were: complicated processes on developing CDM projects especially on how to initiate project idea note (PIN) and develop project design document (PDD). This was compounded with inadequate capacity from Africa especially on the methodology resulting to heavy transactional costs of hiring international experts to support local communities and African governments to develop and implement CDM projects. The stringent rules on implementation of Kyoto Protocol on afforestation and reforestation programmes also played a significant role. For instance, CDM reforestation activities as per the Kyoto Protocol was to take place if there has been no forest since 31st Dec. 1990 or afforestation activities if there has been no forest for atleast 50 years. These periods specified, most of the African areas were forested. Also a number of African countries have not agreed on clear definition of forest to enable investors participate on forestry based CDM project. The other limiting factor is political instability and war among African states that continuously scared investors. This hindered formulation of forest based policies that will capitalize on emerging payment of ecosystem services. These factors among others constitute lost opportunities during the first commitment period of Kyoto protocol for African countries. Enhanced capacity among forestry stakeholders, formulation of favourable policies and continuous update of Kyoto Protocol to suit emerging circumstances in the African continent will be critical on accelerating the validation, registration and implementation of forest based CDM project in Africa.

# Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector: abatement potential and cost of technical measures

S. Pellerin (1); L. Barieme (2); D. Angers (3); F. Béline (4); M. Benoit (5); C. Chenu (6); Colnenne-David (7); S. De Cara (2); M. Doreau (8); Dupraz (8); P. Faverdin (9); F. Garcia-Launay (9); M. Hassouna (10); C. Henault (11); MH. Jeuffroy (7); Klumpp (12); A. Metay (13); D. Moran (14) (5) S. Recoupy (15) (6)

(1) INRA, Environment and Agronomy, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) INRA, Umr eco-pub, Thiverval-Grignon, France;

(3) Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada, Québec,

Canada; (4) IRSTEA, Ur gere, Rennes, France; (5) INRA, Umr herbivores, Saint Genes Champanelle, France; (6)

Agropecristech, Umr jees, Paris, France; (7) INRA, Umr agronomie, Thiverval-Grignon, France;

(8) INRA, Umr smart, France; (9) INRA, Umr eco-pub, Thiverval-Grignon, France; (10) INRA, Umr herbivores, Saint Genes Champanelle, France; (6)
Rennes, France; (9) INRA, Umr pegase, Rennes, France; (10) INRA, Umr sas, Rennes, France; (11) INRA, UR SOLS 0272, Orléans, France; (12) INRA, Urep, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (13) Supagro, Umr system, Montpellier, France; (14) Scotland rural college, Economics, Edimburg, United Kingdom; (15) INRA, Umr fare, Reims, France; (16) INRA, Depe, Paris, France

In Europe, agriculture is responsible for 10.2% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. This sector can contribute to abatement objectives via three levers: a reduction in N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions, additional carbon storage in soil, and biomass and energy production (substitution effect). The objective of this study was to assess technical measures to reduce GHG emissions at the farm level in a European context without reducing production outputs. France was chosen as a case study with a typical intensive and diversified agriculture.

Ten measures, split into 26 sub-measures, were selected from an initial list of 100 "candidate" measures. The selection process was based on five criteria: the expected effect on production, the GHG abatement potential, the current availability of the technology required to implement the measure and of validated scientific knowledge establishing its efficacy, the applicability of the measure, including its social acceptability, and the potential synergies or antagonisms with other agri-environmental objectives, including adaptation to climate change.

The ten selected measures were linked to 1) nitrogen management in the field (better fertiliser application rates, introduce more legumes in arable crop rotations and temporary grasslands), 2) management practices which increase carbon storage in soils and biomass (reduced tillage, cover crops and grass buffer strips, agroforestry and hedges, grassland management), 3) livestock diets (unsaturated fats or additive in ruminant diets, better adjust the amount of proteins), and 4) energy production and consumption on farms (methanisation and flares, energy savings). Their abatement potential and cost were accurately calculated and compared, using a marginal abatement cost curve approach (Moran et al., 2011).

Results showed that the overall abatement potential can be broken down into three groups. One third of the cumulated abatement potential corresponds to sub-measures with a negative technical cost. These sub-measures are based on an improved efficiency of inputs like N fertilizers, animal feed and energy, thus reducing GHG emissions and costs, with no negative effect on production (win-win measures). Moreover, these sub-measures have a positive expected effect on water and air quality and no antagonism exists with the objective of adaptation to climate change.

The second group corresponds to sub-measures with a moderate cost (<€25 per metric ton of CO2e avoided). These sub-measures require specific investments (e.g. methanisation) or modifying the cropping system slightly more (reduced tillage, legumes, agroforestry). However, these additional costs or lower incomes are partially compensated for by a reduction in other costs (fuels) or additional marketable products (biogas, electricity, wood).

The third group corresponds to sub-measures with a high cost (>€25 per metric ton of CO2e avoided). These sub-measures require investment with no direct financial return (flares), the purchase of specific inputs (nitration inhibitors, unsaturating factors, additives incorporated into the diet of ruminants), dedicated labour time (over crops, hedges) or involve greater production losses (grass buffer strips reducing the cultivated surface area for example).

When calculated under current national inventory rules, the overall annual abatement of all these measures represents 10% of annual emissions from agriculture. This percentage is higher when calculations are based on higher tier estimates.

It is concluded that cost-effective technical levers exist for agriculture to support greenhouse gas mitigation without hampering production and adaptation goals.

P-2218-06

## Land Use Emissions Abatement and Consequences for Food Prices

M. Stevanovic (1) ; A. Popp (1) ; B. Bodirsky (1) ; F. Humpenoeder (1) ; M. Bonsch (1) ; I. Weindl (1) ; J. Dietrich (1) ; S. Rolinski (1) ; A. Biewald (1) ; X. Wang, (1) ; C. Müller (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Considerable emission cuts of greenhouse gases (GHG) are required in order to prevent further warming of the planet and to reduce the risk of severe impacts attributed to climate change (Meinshausen et al., 2009, Nature 458: 1158-1162). The agricultural, forestry and other land use sector (AGLU) is the largest GHG-emitting sector for carbon uptake with mitigation efforts at its itself contributes with 20-25% to overall GHG emissions, but also allows for negative emissions by removing GHGs, mainly carbon-dioxide (CO2), from the atmosphere (IPCC AR5, 2014). To this end, climate mitigation policies need to take AFOLU options into account, but science needs to understand and highlight possible trade-offs and socio-economic impacts of AFOLU-based climate mitigation. For instance, large scale land use change can have adverse impacts on various ecosystem services, such as conservation of biodiversity, water retention, food provision etc. Similarly, a direct pricing of GHG emission could affect commodity prices from the agricultural sector through increased cost of agricultural production and further compromise food security. Using an agro-economic, spatially explicit model (MagPIE; Lotze-Campen et al., 2008, Agric. Econ. 39: 325-338; Popp et al., 2014 Nat. Clim. Change 4: 1095-1098) that estimates cost-optimal land use patterns of global agricultural production, we show that mitigation measure both at the supply or demand side of the AFOLU sector can strongly reduce major GHG emissions in form of carbon-dioxide from land use change, and nitrous-oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) stemming from agricultural production activities. However, supply side emission reduction measures, such as avoided deforestation and less polluting agricultural management and practice incentivised by a GHG tax, lead to strong increases of food prices (>25% of price index under a reference scenario, BAU, at the end of the century), which are mostly driven by the pricing of CH4 emissions stemming from the livestock production sector. On the contrary, measure that target demand side management, including better food waste management and a 'demitarian' diet with halved livestock calorie demand in daily food intake compared to present day livestock product consumption in developed countries, allow for additional potential for carbon uptake on abandoned agricultural land and even decreases the prices throughout the 21st century. However, in order to further eliminate residual emissions, especially the cumbersome CH4 gas, a synergy of the two emission reduction strategies is required. This combined strategy curbs the non-CO2 emissions further, cutting down N2O and CH4 to 50% and 40% respectively, relative to BAU. A stringent abatement of CH4 emissions (by 60%) through combination of demand and supply side policies demonstrates generally lower food prices over the century than is the case with only supply side mitigation policy. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the considerable potential of food demand management in reducing GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector without jeopardizing food security and beneficial to the environment.

P-2218-07

## Terrestrial carbon sinks: the critical role in deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios and ecological limits to large scale carbon dioxide removal

MS. Torn (1) ; L. Smith (2) ; D. Sanchez, (3) ; JH. Williams, (4) ; A. Jones, (1)

(1) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (3) UC Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America; (4) Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America

Pathways to achieving deep greenhouse (GHG) reductions (such as 80% reductions by 2050) have implications for carbon cycle science. This talk will highlight the critical role that terrestrial carbon sinks and mitigation of non-energy GHGs have in reading deep decarbonization goals.

In addition, many climate change mitigation scenarios include terrestrial atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) or carbon neutral bioenergy production through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS) or afforestation/reforestation. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, and
we evaluate the potential ecological limits (e.g., land and resource requirements) to implementation at the 1 Pg C 1 scale relevant to climate change mitigation for U.S. and global scenarios. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C 1 via tropical afforestation would require at least 7×106 ha-1 of land, 0.09 Tg y-1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y-1 of phosphorus, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50%. Because of improved carbon capture technologies, we are updating (and reducing) our previous estimates for switchgrass BECCS (previous estimate was 2×108 ha-1 and 20 Tg y-1 of nitrogen (20% of global fertilizer nitrogen production)). Mischenius could meet the same biomass production with much lower N demand. Moreover, transitioning the U.S land currently under corn- ethanol production to no-till perennial grasses for bioenergy would meet U.S. needs and have additional environmental benefits (such as improved wildlife habitat and soil restoration). Therefore, there are important ecological limits for BCDR and carbon-neutral bioenergy production as well as significant potential benefits depending on implementation.

P-2218-08

An assessment of Brazilian biofuels expansion from a climate-resilient pathways framework

W. Wills (1) ; M. Obermaier (2) ; C. King, (3) ; A. Xavier (3) ; B. Scanlon (4) ; M. Moreira (5)

(1) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto alberto luiz coimbra de pós-graduação e pesquisa de Engenharia (coppe), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (2) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto alberto luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil; (3) University of Texas - Austin, Energy Institute, Austin, United States of America; (4) University of Texas - Austin, Bureau of economic geology, Austin, United States of America; (5) Agropec. São Paulo, Brazil

Climate change's impact on society, health, and nature is a global challenge with local effects and needs for response. One of the upmost concerns about climate change is the possibility that its impacts can offset any gains we have made in the past. It is also important to recognize that sustainable development, particularly in less developed regions (World Bank, 2010). A highly promising means to achieve desirable future states is the development of climate resilient pathways (CRPs) (Denton et al., 2014) which are "... development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development" with the explicit target to simultaneously seek to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs among those three pillars.

Biofuel development certainly entails a combination of climate mitigation and sustainable development needs, but also adaptation in agriculture and water resources. Originally seen as a solution for climate change mitigation, energy independence, and rural development (Sachs, 2005; Hazell and Pachauri, 2006), recent research has linked biofuels production to biodiversity loss, depletion of water resources, food insecurity, and, contrary to earlier studies, increases in GHGs emissions due to indirect deforestation and nitrogen fertilizer application (Fargione et al., 2008; Gibbs et al., 2008). In this context, Brazil, one of the world's largest biofuel producers, is largely considered a success story given low per ha GHG emissions, availability of land for energy crops, low induced deforestation and social inclusion targets for family farmers (Goldemberg et al., 2008; Nassar et al., 2010; Schaffel et al., 2012).

However, sustainable production of Brazilian biofuels is now put to a test as both national and international demand for domestically produced biofuels is rising, including export of sustainably produced biofuels, thus driving biofuels production into new lands and microclimates. Furthermore, climate change is now predicted to affect agricultural productivity and water resources availability in Brazil, potentially increasing conflicts between different land uses, including those of food versus fuel (Lapola et al., 2010; Assad et al., 2010; La Rovere et al., 2011).

Understanding the interrelationships between different land uses, water demand and supply, and energy production is thus imperative in order to identify potential medium to long-term consequences of current biofuel policies, the potential impacts of these impacts, and to take advantage of potential opportunities for

sustainable development and adaptation in agriculture, including export of sustainably produced biofuels.

In this context, assessing Brazilian biofuels under a CRP framework may thus provide important policy contributions for planning of climate change and development. Considerable efforts have been made in order to identify and analyse key challenges for sustainable production of biofuels in Brazil. However, existing studies (e.g., Goldemberg et al., 2008; Fargione et al., 2008; Lapola et al., 2010; La Rovere et al., 2011) have focused on isolated impacts of biofuel production or case studies, rather than providing integrated assessments of policy-relevant (including climate policy) energy, land use, and water issues. In this context, our presentation aims to inform policymakers and stakeholders on potential biofuels expansion scenarios in Brazil under climate change until 2030 in order to enable sound policymaking that mitigates adverse impacts on land use, water resources, and food security, while simultaneously promoting sustainable production of biofuels. We do so through a multi-institutional modelling effort (carried out by three research centers from Brazil and US) that integrates basin-scale water resources impact assessment, land-use change analysis, and energy-economy-wide modelling of socioeconomic and GHG impacts due to biofuels use. Our presentation will focus on explaining our methodological framework for CRP assessment and present first results obtained in the areas of water resources and land use management.

P-2218-09

Planetary limits to Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) negative emissions

A. Wiltshire (1) ; T. Davies-Barnard (2) ; C. Jones (1) ; J. Lowe (3)

(1) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office, Lead scientist of avoid, Exeter, United Kingdom

Most but not all IPCC WG3 emission scenarios stabilising climate at low levels, such as the 2 degree C climate target require large scale deployment of Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). BECCS allows for negative emissions, which is the artificial removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (CDR). BECCS can therefore offset anthropogenic emissions, and even lead to overall net negative emissions. In this study we consider three alternative scenarios of BECCS deployment ranging from the conversion of existing agricultural areas, moderate levels of land conversion and an extreme level of tropical land conversion to maximise yields. These scenarios are used in combination with simulations from the HadGEM2-ES earth system model to consider the implications of climate change on yield and the emissions associated with deforestation, as well as the biophysical effect on climate associated with the land-use change. These are combined to assess the net climate effects of large-scale BECCS deployment. Overall, in our assessment we find the contribution of BECCS is unlikely to exceed cooling of 0.7 deg C by 2100. The median estimate of total negative emissions in the IPCC WG3 database compatible with the 2C target is 166 GtC. The highest estimates presented here is 130GtC.

P-2218-10

Assessment of options for land use in a post-2020 world

P. Wylie (1) ; J. Funk, (2) ; J. Brana-Varela, (3)

(1) IUCN - International Union For Conservation of Nature, Global Forest & Climate Change Programme, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) UCS - Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, United States of America; (3) WWF US - World Wildlife Fund for Nature, Forest and climate program, Washington, DC, United States of America

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) account for nearly 25% of global GHG emissions while also absorbing a significant amount of emissions according to IPCC AR5. In this light, IUCN and a group of leading organisations focused on UNFCCC negotiations have been reaching out to Parties to discuss the role of the forest and land sectors in the new climate agreement.
Expert workshops over the last 18 months in Bonn and Lima, as well as an expert panel at the Global Landscapes Forum, advanced discussions and identified solutions for this important issue. All of those events included the REDD+, LULUCF, and agriculture negotiators, in order to ensure the discussions covered the full scope of land-use issues. These discussions highlighted risks to the integrity of a new climate regime if the role of the land sector is not adequately or appropriately reflected in the Paris agreement.

Taking stock of recent publications on the subject and the current status of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), REDD+, degradation and land-related CDM discussions in the UNFCCC, the relative strengths and weaknesses of options for how the land sector might be addressed in a post-2020 ADP agreement, will be highlighted. This set of options will have been discussed at a targeted workshop the month before amongst ADP

lead negotiators.

Based on recent research, key questions that to be addressed will focus on:

* What specific attributes are needed in a framework to promote ambitious emission reductions from the land sector?

* Based on summaries of the INCDC submissions to date and beyond, what are Parties to the UNFCCC already preparing domestically to recognize the importance of the land use into their post-2020 contributions?

Beyond global agreement in Paris at COP21, what can the international scientific community and both international & domestic governments do to support permanence in any future gains on the emission gap via ambitious action within the land sector?

# 2219 - Politics and numbers: Political and technical challenges in reducing emissions from forests with REDD+

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2219-01

#### The REDD+ policy arena and the politics of numbers and information sharing

M. Brockhaus (1); A. Angelsen (2); G. Di (3)

(1) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia; (2) Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of economics and business, As, Norway; (3) University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Forests are an integral part of the international climate mitigation agenda. Transformational change beyond the forestry sector is required to realize the mitigation potential from avoided deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). In the envisioned REDD+ architecture, payments will be made for carbon and non-carbon results, which need to be measured, reported and verified (MRV). Highly technical information needs to be translated into financial action. Information and information sharing are key features in REDD+ far beyond the MRV of carbon and co-benefits. In addition, dense webs of political actors and economic interests come to the forefront as countries become «ready for REDD+».

Evidence-based policy design and formulation aims at devising policies based on rigorous and objective information (Petrosino et al. 2001). While a factual basis is crucial, decision making is inherently a political process, and the outcome of procedural and technical policy solutions are affected by power relation in the relevant policy arena. Multiple actors, both governmental and non-governmental, with their multiple interests, bargain and negotiate to formulate public policies, often in network structures formed around their interests. Such a process may not produce optimal outcomes (Peskett and Brockhaus 2009, Moog et al 2012 conference paper Brockhaus and Angelsen 2012). National REDD+ policy processes should be understood as negotiated political processes, with politics and political economy aspects being critical for the outcomes. Effective, efficient and equitable (3E) outcomes are then constrained or enabled by the political conditions which are contextual to the specific country and REDD+ policy domain. To understand the constraints and opportunities in policy processes, design and implementation, we have to recognize the political nature on these processes.

This paper deals with a particular aspect of the politics of numbers in REDD+, namely how information, measures and numbers are produced and used to support specific views on what REDD+ should look like. In particular, we investigate: (1) what are existing procedures for information sharing, (2) who holds information and has to be consulted in REDD+ policy design and implementation, and (3) which institutional and actor-related factors enable and hamper evidence-driven definition, measurement and reporting as well as diffusion of numbers and information across the REDD+ policy arena.

We draw on the «41» framework developed in Brockhaus and Angelsen (2012), and investigate how institutional

stickiness, as well as actors' ideas and interests interact with the fourth I in the REDD+ arena, information, and how this affects the potential for transformational change required to realise REDD+ outcomes. We present results from a global comparative research project (GCS) undertaken by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) since 2009 in 14 countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, DRC, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Tanzania), Latin America (Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru), and Asia-Pacific (Indonesia, Nepal, Laos, Papua New Guinea, and Vietnam). The comparative analysis is based among other elements on country-level analyses of the drivers of deforestation, and the institutional and political economy context in which REDD+ policies are being designed, a media based discourse analysis, a policy network analysis, and a content analysis of REDD+ policy documents. All three elements were designed for comparative analysis through the development of extensive guidelines (for an overview on methods and specific guidelines see Brockhaus and Di Gregorio 2012; Brockhaus et al 2012; Di Gregorio et al 2012).

Our findings indicate that despite the increasing levels of investments in countries' MRV systems, as well as analysis, knowledge and early lessons from ongoing REDD+ policy processes, there is still limited understanding and in consequence, limited action for curtailing the impact of politics on numbers and information on effectiveness, efficiency and equity of a REDD+ mechanism, and what factors would enable effective information sharing. In addition, our evidence indicates limited political will and interest in "getting the numbers right", and that data insecurity and lack of clarity may serve then as a justification for action.

### K-2219-02

#### Politics of numbers in REDD+: the case of reference levels

A. Angelsen (1); M. Brockhaus (2); HA. Teklay (1)

(1) Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of economics and business, As, Norway; (2) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Designing and implementing REDD+ assumes quantification of past and current carbon emissions, constructing a counterfactual future scenario for emissions (i.e. the reference level RL), as well as indicators for (change in) non-carbon benefits. Most REDD+ countries are characterized by a poor data foundation for undertaking such quantifications, resulting in high uncertainties. In addition, choices have to be made related to what exactly should be measured (including the definition of what constitute a "forest"), the approach to measuring the selected variables (e.g. scope, quality standards), and how the data should be independently verified.

This lack and uncertainty of relevant data creates a fertile ground for "gaming", defined as the manipulation of data for own benefits. "Gaming" does not imply fabricating data (although that might happen too), but rather processes where the unavoidable choices in data generation are heavily influenced by self-interests. Different stakeholders
have different interests in what to be measured, the magnitude of the selected variables, and how the variables should be measured and verified. The most obvious example is how to set the RL in a result-based system: a high RL will give higher estimated emissions reductions and thereby higher payments to those assigned the rights to sell emission reductions. Even without payments, the RL provides a benchmark for measuring the performance of projects and policies, with the credibility and reputation of NGOs, governments set at stake. More generally, what is being measured shapes the political agenda and how different interests are being balanced in the political process. What is being counted counts.

We hypothesize that the degree and nature of gaming with numbers depends on both the underlying uncertainty, the extent and quality of the existing data base, the stakes at play, the informal constraints set by the political environment (e.g. transparent and critical debates), and the formal process for generation and verification of data. We use the RLs in REDD+ as our empirical case, and review RL proposals submitted to UNFCCC by key REDD+ countries. While UNFCCC provides general guidelines for setting RLs, scope for systematic biases of RL exist in the definition of forest, reference period for historical deforestation, adjustments for national circumstances, activities included, pools included, and the emission factors applied.

## K-2219-03

### Operational approaches for mapping tropical forest biomass and degradation patterns using optical and radar satellite data

N. Barbier (1); P. Couteron (1); F. Von Poncet (2); M. Schlund (2); C. Mathian (3)

(1) IRD-UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France; (2) Airbus Defence and Space, Immenstaad, Germany; (3) Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France

Tropical forest mapping is a basic need for a wide range of users, from fields as diverse as forestry, mining and conservation or for gaining carbon credits under practices related to the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) framework. Technical difficulties to validate cost-effective procedures to monitor forest structure from space are a hindrance to the increase in number and impacts of REDD+ projects, especially those that aim tackling forest degradation (i.e. REDD's second D). Even punctual logging operations (e.g. selective logging) can lead to a persistent decline in forest goods and thus be a precursor to forest degradation. For projects quantifying and mapping dense tropical forest structure and dynamics at region to country level is a challenging, yet pressing need, notably but not exclusively for assessing carbon stocks and fluxes, being Forest Project, funded by EIT - Climate KIC (UE) aims at providing state-of-the-art mapping products for stakeholders requiring a reliable monitoring of tropical forest structure and derived variables. It is built on Airbus satellite fleet bearing optical and radar sensors. It refers to ground and airborne LiDAR data from Central Africa and South America as to calibrate signal inversion under high standards of quality control. The present contribution gathers the results of sensitivity studies carried out by the project using very high resolution optical data, as well as synthetic aperture radar data. We present the potential of these two complementary sources of data for assessing critical forest parameters such as above ground biomass density, canopy height and degradation levels.

Despite their broad availability, medium to high resolution optical imagery (e.g. MODIS, Landsat 8 or Spot 5) exhibit important limitations when it comes to quantify forest structure variation in high biomass density environments. In contrast to the deforestation phenomena, signals over tropical forests are known to saturate early after closure, blurring the measurement of degradation or biomass. Moreover, instrumental noise (BRDF, atmospheric pollution) is often higher than signal. It is therefore necessary to turn to other spaceborne biophysical observables to monitor forest parameters. In the optical domain, Fourier texture features obtained from very high spatial resolution (e.g. Piéudes) optical data provide non-saturating proxies for stand parameters, including above-ground biomass, within the highest standards of precision (RMSE < 15%) and accuracy achieved to date from remotely sensed data. The influence of acquisition

geometry (sun-view angles), that usually hamper regional or multi-temporal studies combining multiple acquisitions can be handled as to avoid biases. These results, and the increasing availability of large swath VHR sensors (Spot 6-7), open the way to applications requiring operational large scale forest structure and degradation monitoring and mapping, except in very cloudy contexts.

Weather-independent TerraSAR-X / TanDEM-X radar satellite data offer an interesting alternative for degradation monitoring, especially when observation frequency is critical. Amplitude change detection of radar time series can indeed be used to automatically detect small scale selective logging or other disturbances. Interferometric SAR features (coherence and INSAR height) derived from TanDEM-X mission data have proved to be correlated to forest structure parameters, enabling consistent estimates of forest height and biomass for large areas at high resolution. In regions where accurate external terrain models are available, e.g. from airborne lidar LiDAR campaigns, the approach using INSAR heights can achieve high accuracies in tree height (LE90 of 7.5m) and biomass (RMSE below 10%)

Both SPOT6/7 and TanDEM-X data allow producing accurate, high-resolution, maps, complying with ISO 14001 and categories mandatory for GHG reporting as specified by IPCC guidelines. Thanks to information on forest structure, further stratification of the forest area into a range of forest types, including intact and degraded forests, can be achieved. These classes will represent the state of forests as a result of forest disturbance history and can be used to measure the performance and effectiveness of a wide array of mitigation actions as part of MRV schemes.

## O-2219-01

### Are REDD+ subnational initiatives protecting and improving the wellbeing of local stakeholders?

W. Sunderlin (1); SC. De (2)

(1) Center for International Forestry Research, Forest and Livelihoods, Bogor, Indonesia; (2) CIFOR, Forests and Livelihoods, Bogor, Indonesia

REDD+ aims to restrict forest-based greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals. In REDD+ subnational initiatives, this is to be achieved in part by restricting forest access and conversion (negative incentive) and by protecting and improving the wellbeing of local stakeholders (positive incentive). One of the main means to achieve the latter is to produce a reward stream large enough to compensate the opportunity cost of forgone forest conversion, and to deliver it to stakeholders on condition that they successfully protect and enhance local forests (performance-based mechanism). Success in protecting and improving wellbeing is not a foregone conclusion, among other reasons because the most forest-dependent households are those most vulnerable to restrictions on access and conversion, because it has been challenging to produce the large and reliable stream of funding initially envisioned for REDD+, because (for lack of a strong performance-based mechanism) subnational initiatives have been placing strong reliance on non-conditional incentives, because organizations establishing REDD+ on the ground have found it difficult to create an appropriate tenure foundation that reinforces or stimulates forest stewardship while providing effective rights of exclusion to protect forests against outside claims, and because of the technical challenge of establishing effective MRV systems.

This presentation examines the performance of REDD+ in protecting and improving the wellbeing of local stakeholders on the basis of evidence in six countries, encompassing 22 subnational initiatives, 150 villages, and 4,200 households. Half the villages and households are inside and half are outside REDD+ initiatives, enabling robust comparison. Socioeconomic household data were collected at two points in time (2010-2011 and then 2013-2014) enabling longitudinal comparison of the effects of various kinds of interventions. The household data are both objective (e.g. income, assets) and subjective (respondent perception of the causes of wellbeing change over time). Data were collected on the full range of REDD+ interventions, including restrictions on forest access and conversion, enhancement, tenure clarification, environmental education, institutional and non-conditional livelihood incentives, and others.
Among the findings are that REDD+ negative incentives have a noticeable effect on forest-dependent households. This is because of high average dependence on agriculture and on clearing forests through shifting cultivation to maintain soil fertility and create new farmlands. Given the high dependence on agriculture, the perceived reasons for improved and worsening wellbeing relate strongly to the covariate fortunes and misfortunes of weather (sufficiency of rain, drought, etc.) and crop and livestock abundance and survival. REDD+ (with considerable variation among initiatives) does have a measurable effect on wellbeing – both negative and positive – but perhaps less than one might have anticipated given that REDD+ has been underway for seven years.

Indeed, REDD+ has had many challenges getting off the ground, and has a long way to go before realizing its objectives. Among the chief obstacles are political and economic interests (at all scales of governance) tied to the conversion of forests to non-forest uses, the difficulties in producing a sufficiently large and stable stream of rewards, and considerable difficulties in establishing an appropriate tenure foundation.

## O-2219-02

### Calibrating carbon cycle models to determine tropical ecosystem biomass stocks: A Tier 3 certification approach

F. Maignan (1); B. Poulter (2); N. Nadjavski (2); P. Ciais (1); N. Barbier (3); J. Chave (4); S. Luyssaert (1); F. Von Poncet (5)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) Montana State University, Ecosystem dynamics lab, Bozeman, United States of America; (3) UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France; (4) CNRS, Laboratoire evolution et diversité biologique (edb), umr 5174, Toulouse, France; (5) Airbus Defence and Space, Geo-intelligence, 88090 Friedrichshafen, Germany

According to the latest IPCC report land use and land-use change contributes to 9–11% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions each year and thus changes in land management could provide short-term solution to mitigating climate change.

Initiatives to protect and enhance carbon stored in forests are meant to be enhanced through the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism and countries are supposed to take an active role in its implementation. REDD+ requires biomass to be accurately measured, reported and monitored so that carbon can be protected and efforts are remunerated through a result-based principle.

One key challenge is related to how to measure biomass with sufficient accuracy for reporting and in a cost-effective manner related to the pricing of carbon. Taking these constraints into consideration, REDD+ reporting of biomass has been categorized into:

* high uncertainty estimates, i.e. Tier 1 using global biomass density estimates,

* to moderate uncertainty, i.e. Tier 2 using country-level biomass densities,

* and to low uncertainty, i.e. Tier 3, using carbon cycle models calibrated with forest inventory data.

Here we discuss a pathway for estimating Tier 3 carbon stocks in tropical regions using a carbon cycle model, ORCHIDEE, that is calibrated with forest inventory data and constrained by remote sensing data, to estimate project-level carbon stocks and fluxes in above- and belowground biomass pools. ORCHIDEE is in a class of ecosystem models known as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, and simulates the establishment, growth, and mortality of trees using principles from eco-physics.

Using tropical forest inventory data, the ORCHIDEE model is calibrated to reproduce growth rates of over and understory trees, and mortality, resulting in estimates of carbon and their change over time in biomass and in soil carbon pools. For project-level implementation, forest canopy height measured from either airborne LIBAR or space-based RADAR is assimilated to ORCHIDEE to extract corresponding carbon values.

Consequently, gridded maps of aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil carbon, leaf area index, net primary production, and net ecosystem exchange, at the corresponding spatial resolution, or mapping unit, to that of the canopy information, can be provided for REDD+ programs fulfilling the Tier 3 criteria. We demonstrate this processing chain for sites in French Guiana, Gabon and Cameroon.

## O-2219-03

### Expert perceptions on cost of increasing biospheric carbon in landscapes in Finland, Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania

M. Larjavaara (1); M. Kanninen, (2)

(1) University of Helsinki, VITRI, Helsinki, Finland; (2) University of Helsinki VITRI, Helsinki, Finland

Good understanding of global variation in prices of adding biospheric carbon to landscapes could lead to a better allocation of scarce funding. Unfortunately, comparisons have been complicated by variability in ways to quantify cost and carbon benefits and how complications such as insecure land tenure have been taken into account. Our objective was to quantify expert perceptions on cost of increasing biospheric carbon in Finland, Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania by conducting face-to-face interviews. For this purpose, we developed a simple carbon bookkeeping tool with a spreadsheet and a more user friendly versions. We applied this future scenario carbon calculator, "CarboScen", in 64 interviews on 8 landscapes in 4 countries. The experts represented governments, NGOs, private sector and research and had their focus in the national, subnational or local level. Prior to the interviews we parameterized CarboScen with best available local data on carbon densities and global understanding on speed of carbon density changes after a transition in land use. Instead of the normal, cost per sequestered unit of carbon, we asked the experts to imagine a payment of 1 USD and 10 USD paid annual for every extra ton of carbon stored in the landscape relative to a reference, business-as-usual, scenario. We then asked what kind of land use changes these payments could cause by showing carbon implications of numerous land use changes suggested by the interviewee with CarboScen. According to the perceptions of the experts of land use, marginal costs of adding carbon increased rapidly as the tenfold hypothetical payment of 10 USD lead to only a two or three fold additional carbon store relative to a 1 USD payment. The perceptions on the quantity of carbon added with a given payment were roughly proportional to carbon density of the landscape. Therefore adding carbon to the extremely carbon dense landscapes dominated by tropical plantations in Indonesia was approximately ten times more efficient than in landscapes in Finland and Peru and the difference to landscapes Tanzania was even greater. Based on the reasoning of the interviewees, these large differences in cost of increasing carbon were caused mainly by differences in technically maximal mitigation potential, income from alternative land-uses and the understanding of the assumed "good governance and efficient distribution of the funding". It is likely that these perceptions reflect actual differences in cost of increasing carbon, and therefore should be taken into account when designing global climate change mitigation strategies.

## O-2219-04

### Pathways for sustainable REDD+ policies in Brazil

A. Sotterroni (1); F. Ramos (1); A. Mosniger, (2); AXY. Carvalho (3); RCM. Souza (1); M. Buurman (4); G. Câmara, (1); PR. Andrade (1); J. Pirker (5); R. Rant (6); V. Kapos (6) (5); M. Obersteiner (5)

(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services Management, Laxenburg, Austria; (3) Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasilia, Brazil; (4) Institute for Geoinformatics at the University of Münster (IFGI), Münster, Germany; (5) International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; (6) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), World Conservation Monitoring Centre (WCMC), Cambridge, United Kingdom

Brazil's forests constitute 13% of the global forest area and almost 30% of the tropical forest area. They account for
a significant proportion of global terrestrial biodiversity and store about 20% of global above ground forest carbon. At the same time, Brazil's has a vigorous and dynamic agribusiness, being the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, sugar, and orange juice, and is highly ranked in the production and export of soybean, corn, ethanol, pork, beef, and poultry chicken. Reconciling these two realities presents a major challenge to scientists and policy makers that will require up-to-date and accurate land cover/land use data and modeling tools. Within this context, the REDD-PAC project aims at providing a global forum for sharing and improving global data on forests and deforestation drivers and developing best practices for national REDD+ and land-use planning (see http://www.redd-pac.org). One of the main outcomes of the REDD-PAC project is the development of the GLOBIOM-Brazil model, a partial equilibrium, spatially explicit global land-use model for Brazil's agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors, over a 0.5 degrees spatial grid, adapted from IIAASA's GLOBIOM. In other refinements, validated with 2010 IBGE agriculture census data and PRODES/INPE deforestation data, the model includes a detailed and up-to-date representation of Brazil's land cover/land use data together with the main regulations of Brazil's new Forest Code (FC).

Here we present GLOBIOM-Brazil simulation results in the assessment of the economic and environmental impacts, over the period of 2020-2050, of FC's key new policies, namely, the restoration obligation (RO) of illegally deforested areas, the small farms amnesty (SFA) and the environment debt offset mechanism based on the CRA, a tradable legal title of forest surpluses. When compared to the non-additional policies scenario (NAPS), the FC has an overall positive impact on land cover changes and corresponding carbon emissions, with an increase of Brazil's forested area. This is accomplished without much impact in food production, which continues to grow during the coming decades, but, mostly, by conversion of abandoned land and low productivity pastures, mainly in the Amazon. We also observe that the RO policy is effective only to the extent that the ban on illegal deforestation is fully enforced, in order to avoid the trading between pristine and restored forests. As expected, both the SFA and the CRA mechanism have deleterious environmental impact, since they sensibly reduce the total forest deficit area to be restored by landowners. On the other hand, our simulations indicate that the CRA mechanism is effective in protecting areas of pristine forests, still rich in biodiversity, in regions subject to high economic and demographic pressure, such as the Atlantic Forest and the deforestation arch in the Legal Amazon.

## O-2219-05

### Addressing uncertainty upstream and downstream of emissions reductions accounting from deforestation and forest degradation: examples from Panama and Zambia

J. Pelletier (1); S. Goetz (1); N. Laporte, (2); C. Potvin, (3) ; J. Busch (4)

(1) Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, United States of America; (2) NASA SERVIR project, Falmouth, Ma, United States of America; (3) McGill University, Biology, Montreal, Canada; (4) Center for Global Development, Washington, DC, United States of America

Uncertainty in emissions and emission changes estimates constitutes an unresolved issue for a future international climate agreement. Uncertainty can be addressed 'upstream' through improvements in the technologies or techniques used to measure, report, and verify (MRV) emission reductions, or 'downstream' through the application of discount factors to more uncertain reductions. Uncertainties is an important consideration in the REDD+ context since 1) the process/cover change and forestry (LULUCF) are identified as the sector where uncertainties are the largest, 2) many developing countries still lack capabilities for estimating stocks and flows from forests, 3) the financial mechanism planned for compensating developing countries in their successful efforts to slow, halt or revert forest cover change could include the use of offsets. The integration of REDD+ in the climate regime is providing a new impetus to deal with uncertainty as the offsetting of more certain emissions from fossil fuel with uncertain ER (Emission Reductions) from REDD+ remains an open question with possibly large

consequences.

In the context of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+), we provide a diagnosis of the main sources of error to greenhouse gas estimation from land-cover change and overall error using Monte Carlo analysis, using data from Panama, in Central America, and from Zambia, in Southern Africa. For Zambia, we estimate the overall error in emissions from land-cover change and partitioning the different sources of error starting from national forest inventories. For Panama, we look at the effects of forest monitoring improvements on reductions in uncertainty. We also test five downstream proposals for discounting uncertainty of the potential credits received for reducing emissions. We compare the potential compensation received for these emission reductions to the cost of alternative upstream investments in forest monitoring capabilities.

We show that upstream improvements can noticeably reduce the overall uncertainty in emission reductions. Furthermore, the costs of upstream investments in improved forest monitoring are relatively low compared to the potential benefits from carbon payments; they would allow Panama to receive higher financial compensation from more certain emission reductions. When uncertainty is discounted downstream, we find that the degree of conservativeness applied downstream has a major influence on both overall creditable emission reductions and on incentives for upstream forest monitoring improvements. Of the five downstream approaches that we analyze, only the Conservativeness Approach and the Risk Charge Approach provided consistent financial incentives to reduce uncertainty upstream. We provide policy relevant inputs for those countries to reduce uncertainty and taking into account natural variability and measurement errors. More generally, we provide recommendations on approaches to be use to address uncertainty upstream and downstream of accounting, especially relevant if REDD+ emission reductions are to be traded for emission reductions from other sectors.

## O-2219-06

### Addressing emissions from agriculture and agriculture-driven deforestation: opportunities for land-sparing and climate-smart agriculture

S. Carter (1); M. Herold (1); M. Rufino (2); K. Neumann, (1) ; L. Kooistra (1); L. Verchot (3)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Deforestation and forest degradation are major contributors of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for a large proportion of many developing countries' GHG emission budgets (Baumert et al., 2005). According to Hosonuma et al (2012), in 13 countries agricultural expansion is responsible for 100% of deforestation. In this study we consider both emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and emissions from existing agricultural land to assess the mitigation potential of the agriculture sector. The inclusion of emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation aligns with recent interest in including agriculture in strategies, which aim to directly address the driver of deforestation.

Emissions from agriculture are available at the national level however despite recent efforts a map and quantity land use and land cover change (ESA, 2013; FAO & JRC, 2012; FAO, 2014; Hansen et al., 2013), we consider that these are not suitable to determine agriculture-driven deforestation. This is because the cause of deforestation in this case has a focused land-use changes (from forest to agriculture), so deforestation data based on a forest land-use definition is required. Gross change data are required since, in the cases of China, India and Vietnam for example, large-scale afforestation projects will mean that gains from forest area will underestimate deforestation (FAO 2010). Differences in data coverage, spatial resolution of datasets and in particular definitions of agriculture and forests make comparisons and integration difficult. A new approach combining available datasets of deforestation will be presented which estimates that agriculture-driven deforestation results in 4.3 GtCO₂e y-1 from loss of above and below-ground biomass. We use empirical data on forest loss and use data on deforestation drivers to convert this to area of agriculture-driven deforestation.
Using our data on emissions from both agriculture and agriculture-driven deforestation, we consider at the national level the mitigation potential. We demonstrate the use of a systematic framework, which considers sequentially (1) the level and main source of emissions, (2) mitigation potential, (3) enabling environment and (4) risks. The level and source of emissions (1) considers the main source of emissions from either agriculture or agriculture-driven deforestation. Mitigation potential (2) assesses the potential for using climate-smart interventions in the agriculture sector or land-sparing options to address agriculture-driven deforestation. Land-sparing options are supply side interventions which reduce the need for the expansion of agriculture land. The enabling environment (3) is assessed by considering the governance, or engagement in REDD+ which can support the implementation of interventions. Risk (4) assessments identify the potential of vulnerability of communities to changes to the agricultural system, and we use food insecurity as an indicator. Findings estimate the mitigation potential of existing agricultural land can be up to 1 GtCO₂e y⁻¹. Land-sparing interventions which close the yield-gap, or rehabilitate degraded land offer opportunities to mitigate up to 1.3 GtCO₂e y⁻¹ in the tropics where there is potential to close the yield gap or utilize available land and there is a good enabling environment. We highlight countries which are likely to require increased support to implement mitigation initiatives and where safeguarding is required to avoid risks to livelihoods.

This research supports discussions on REDD+ which acknowledge the inherent link between REDD+ and agriculture due to competition for land. We draw on recent debates on land-sparing, and discuss supporting policies which will be required to ensure that negative feedbacks are not realized. Although there is a need to look beyond the interventions covered in this study, we find a large potential for mitigation from these options. This study gives a comprehensive overview of national emissions and mitigation priorities within the forest and agriculture sectors, which can guide decision making and investments at the international level.

O-2219-07

## The Warsaw Framework for REDD+: Implications for national implementation

C. Voigt (1); F. Ferreira (2)

(1) University of Oslo, Public and International Law, Oslo, Norway; (2) Ministério das Relações Exteriores, Divisão de Clima, Ozônio e Segurança Química, Brasília, DF, Brazil

The adoption of the Warsaw Framework for REDD+ (WFR) [1] in 2013 has to a large extent concluded negotiations on REDD+ under the UNFCCC. Together with previous decisions, the WFR sets the requirements for developing countries to access results-based finance for mitigation actions in the forest sector, while attributing to the Green Climate Fund a «key role» among the entities channeling results-based finance to REDD+.

This article describes the WFR and indicates some of its implications for the implementation of REDD+ in developing countries. Rather than a commentary of each decision, it outlines the WFR from the perspective of measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) processes for REDD+ actions and accounts for results-based payments. The WFR has further centralized these processes. Such centralization has implications for the implementation of REDD+, in particular for those actors who favored a decentralized and/or subnational approach.

Centralization in this context means a concentration of procedures under the accountability of a national authority — one of the main innovations generated by the WFR. By linking the REDD+ and mitigation processes to national reporting obligations under the UNFCCC and related procedures, it is the national government (i.e. the UNFCCC Party) that ultimately assumes accountability for REDD+ results to the international community.

Furthermore, by creating a national entity or national focal point, the WFR attributes to developing countries the prerogative to determine who is authorized to obtain and receive results-based payments on their behalf. The centralization under the WFR, therefore, goes considerably beyond the national, "border-to-border" approach to implementation and MRV of REDD+ activities. Centralization may, in fact, lead to increased accountability as it implies that there is a responsible national entity

and that implementation and results of REDD+ activities will be/should be aligned with other obligations under the UNFCCC, such as national communications and inventories. This, in turn, requires increasing the level of inter-agency coordination and collaboration among the multiple stakeholders involved with implementing REDD+ activities.

Such an approach also increases transparency and coordination of actions and support through the use of an info hub and the application of the same guidelines and methodologies for all activities seeking results-based finance for REDD+ activities.

The objective of this paper is to stress that the UNFCCC has adopted a centralized approach at the national level. This may require adjusting national strategies and the relationship among actors at the national level in order to obtain results-based finance. This message, we believe, has not yet reached many stakeholders implementing REDD+, resulting in several initiatives currently being labeled as REDD+ which may not be in accordance with the multilaterally agreed rules.

The oral presentation will be structured in the following way:

1. Brief introduction to the WFR

2. Results-based finance for REDD+ activities and the requirements to obtain such

3. The MRV process

4. The roles of the National Entity/National Focal Point and the Green Climate Fund in accessing results based payments

5. The importance of the WFR for national implementation: identification of (actual)/potential) effects and implications

[1] The WFR consists of decisions 9-15/CP.19.

## 2219-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2219-01

## Framework for Assessing Proximate Drivers, Agents, and Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in REDD-plus Demonstration Sites in the Philippines

L. Bugayong (1); P. Dolom, (1); HL. Capinpin, (1); J. Nicmic, (1); A. Carandang, (1)

(1) Forestry Development Center, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, UPLB, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines

International negotiations on REDD+ under the UNFCCC led to the COP-19 agreement to encourage countries to take action to reduce the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. In order to define specific strategies for REDD+ and related measures, an analysis of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is required for the DENR-GIZ project National REDD+ System Philippines. The study used the ASEAN Regional Knowledge Network's Decision Support Tool for identifying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in two REDD+ demonstration sites in Eastern Samar and Davao Oriental, Philippines. An analysis of the forest cover change between 2003 and 2010 using available maps and official statistics was made. Carbon stock change analysis was done to determine the carbon stocks and emissions of identified land uses. The agents, proximate drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation were identified through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. A participatory discussion and identification of priority proximate drivers through stakeholder-identified criteria resulted in a relative ranking of the drivers that need to be addressed by the project. Results of the field data gathered were subjected to further analysis to come up with opportunity costs of converting natural forest to other land uses. The results of this study will serve as inputs in the planning of strategies to address the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the REDD-plus demonstration sites.
## An Algorithm to Harmonize Different Sources of Land Use Information: Building a New Land Use Map for Brazil

AXY. Carvalho (1) ; G. Câmara, (2) ; M. Buurman (3) ; FM. Ramos (2) ; A. Sotteroni (2) ; RCM. Souza (2)

(1) Institute for Applied Economic Research (IVEA), Brasília, Brazil; (2) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil; (3) Institute for Geoinformatics at the University of Münster (IFGI), Münster, Germany

The last decades have witnessed an increasing use of land use models for several purposes, including policy evaluation and land use prediction. In general, these models try to capture the dynamics of different land cover and use classes, on a geographic grid, over sequential periods. Having a good input base map, with well estimated starting areas for the considered land use and cover classes, is important for the models to properly represent future shifts in land use dynamics. On the other hand, building a good land use input map involves combining information from different sources. In many situations, it is necessary to combine data from satellite images and data from property surveys. This is the case when one builds land use models for Brazil: in general, it is necessary to take into account information collected by the Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and combine this data to satellite images for land use, and to vector maps for protected areas.

Combining information from different sources may not be straightforward, because of inconsistencies caused by measurement errors, remote sensing image precision, and discrepancies when information was collected, for example. In this paper, we present an innovative methodology, named Minimum Distance Allocation Method (MDAM), to help build a consistent map, based on the combination of different sources of data. The proposed algorithm is based on a minimization problem, according to which property survey data can be allocated to overlapping or surrounding model geographic units. Optimization restrictions are specified so as to avoid assigning crop, pasture or planted forest area to a model geographic unit located completely inside a preserved park, for example. Based on the proposed methodology, we constructed a new base map for Brazil, to be an input into the GLOBIOM land use model. In the end, we obtained estimates for number of animals (bovines), pasture area, planted forest area, area and production for different crops, per simulation unit. Although the exercise was performed to prepare inputs for GLOBIOM, the reader will find the MDAM general enough, so that it can be employed to prepare consistent input base maps for any land use model.

## Land use changes and emissions from deforestation in Guatemala: advances and challenges to prepare this Central American country for REDD+

E. Castellanos (1) ; D. Fernandez (1) ; G. Fuentes, (1)

(1) Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guatemala, Guatemala

In spite of the fact that Guatemala is consistently listed as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, adaptation needs and gaps have not been the focus of governmental and non-governmental organizations dealing with climate change issues. Rather, most of the work on climate change for the last 15 years has focused on capitalizing on the potential for income from international sources derived from carbon-offset projects, first as part of the Clean Develop Mechanism CDM and more recently as part of avoided deforestation initiatives.

Our research group has accompanied this process for the last 15 years and this paper will present the most important advances in terms of producing the hard data needed to show recent deforestation and reforestation trends in the country, as well as advances in defining the governance system required to implement the National Strategy Against Deforestation which is the basis for REDD+ initiatives in the country.

We first discuss forest cover change information for Guatemala, where we observe a steady drop in the net deforestation rate from a high value of 1.7% measured for the period 1991-2001, to 1.3% for 2001-2006, to 1.0% for 2006-2010. This drop is not a result of a drop in the gross amount of cleared forest. Rather, it is a result of an increase in the forest regenerated, which includes new plantations and forest regenerating after disturbances such as fires and as secondary growth in abandoned agricultural fields. This is in part the result of a successful incentive program by the central government both for large and small holders (PINFOR and PINPE), which provides monetary incentives for people and communities who plant new forests or preserve existing forest cover. Ironically, these programs have not been able to generate a single carbon credit because of problems demonstrating additionality.

In terms of the governance needed to reduce deforestation and to generate marketable carbon credits, this paper describes various significant advances in recent years. A climate change law was passed in 2013, which mandates the implementation of a series of policies to reduce and compensate emissions from sectors such as energy, industry and transportation. It includes some provisions to create a national registry for carbon-offset projects, which could set the basis for the development of an internal carbon trading system.

Beyond these national initiatives, many sectors within the country, including several government offices, are very actively pursuing the development and implementation of REDD+ initiatives to attract international investments. We will describe some of the governing issues under discussion, particularly the intergovernmental coordination needed to implement a proper Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system and the discussions around the fair distribution of potential income from avoided deforestation projects in protected areas between the communities implementing the activities to reduce deforestation and the central government who is the legal owner of the land and therefore of the carbon credits to be generated. This of course has been a difficult issue to negotiate, which has resulted in tension between the communities and the central government.

Many of these issues and challenges are typical of situations encountered in developing countries around the world that have been pursuing the elusive goal of bringing in enough funding to reduce or stop their deforestation problems. Unfortunately, even after many years of work, international support for carbon REDD+ appears to be unreachable to communities because of funds to improve their adapting capacities. National carbon markets may prove to be a more feasible solution.

Agriculture–charcoal interactions as determinants of deforestation rates and forest degradation: Implications for REDD+ design in Zambia

A. Cattaneo (1) ; J. Pycroft (2) ; M. Kokwe, (3) ; A. Arslan (4) ; L. Lipper, (4)

(1) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy; (2) European Commission (IPTS, EU JRC), Sevilla, Spain; (3) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Zambia representation, Lusaka, Zambia; (4) FAO of the UN, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy

This paper simulates the relative contribution to deforestation and forest degradation of the two largest proximate drivers of deforestation in Zambia, which are charcoal production and agriculture, under different scenarios over the period 2015-2022. Different options to reduce land use change are examined using a computable general equilibrium model capturing Zambia's different agroecological zones (AEZs). The model assumes that forests used for unsustainable charcoal production are degraded, or can also be in part converted to land for agriculture use. However, land can also be deforested directly for agricultural use without going through charcoal production.

Results highlight how the interplay between charcoal and agriculture is important in determining deforestation rates and forest degradation in Zambia. For example, measures addressing exclusively charcoal drivers, such as decreasing its demand through improved stove
efficiency or improving sustainability of production reduce forest degradation, but are ineffective in reducing deforestation rates because land is cleared anyways due to demand for agricultural land. Conversely, measures addressing agricultural drivers, such as better reducing fertilizer subsidies in a targeted manner, or reducing land degradation through increased adoption of SLM measures, manage to considerably reduce deforestation rates, but have little impact on forest degradation.

<table><caption>Table 1. Predicted cumulative impact on forests in Zambia under different scenarios for the period 2015–2022: area deforested directly for agriculture, attributable to charcoal, and forest degradation (million hectares).</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Deforestation<br>directly for<br>Agriculture</th><th>Deforestation<br>through<br>Charcoal</th><th>Forest<br>Degradation</th><th>Total: defo-<br>restation +<br>degradation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business-as-<br>usual</td><td>1.03</td><td>1.37</td><td>2.06</td><td>4.46</td></tr><tr><td>Stove<br>efficiency<br>(+30%)</td><td>1.44</td><td>0.97</td><td>1.46</td><td>3.87</td></tr><tr><td>Charcoal<br>sustainability</td><td>1.69</td><td>0.71</td><td>1.06</td><td>3.46</td></tr><tr><td>Reducing<br>fertilizer<br>subsides</td><td>0.65</td><td>1.38</td><td>2.06</td><td>4.08</td></tr><tr><td>Reducing<br>land<br>degradation</td><td>0.69</td><td>1.37</td><td>2.06</td><td>4.11</td></tr><tr><td>Potential<br>REDD+<br>package</td><td>0.68</td><td>0.71</td><td>1.06</td><td>2.45</td></tr></tbody></table>

Simulations indicate that with a potential REDD+ package proposing a reduction of fertilizer subsidies in agroecological Zones (AEZs) I and IIa, reducing land degradation through sustainable land management practices, combined with making charcoal production more sustainable and improving stove efficiency, approximately 1 million hectares of deforestation could be reduced in the period 2015–2022, and forest degradation reduced in an area of 1.06 million hectares.

We also report on welfare effects on small and large farm rural households in different Agro-ecological zones. The Business-as-usual scenario, as assumed in our simulations, is one where incomes grow over a period of 8 years by 120% to 150% among rural households. In AEZs I, IIa, IIIb, and III these gains are reduced only marginally (~1% to ~4%) by the implementation of the REDD+ package envisaged in these simulations. Conversely, both small and large farm households in AEZ IIa2 are considerably negatively affected by the REDD+ package (~5% relative to BAU). These results would indicate that financial resources available under REDD+ may need to be allocated asymmetrically so that households in AEZ IIa2 are provided with appropriate incentives for losses incurred due to constraints associated with a REDD+ package. This would be particularly important because of the 990,000 hectares of reduction in deforestation, 400,000 are in AEZ IIa2.

## P-2219-05

### Drivers of deforestation in REDD+ countries: Results from a pan-tropical remote sensing analysis

V. De Sy (1); M. Herold (1); F. Achard (2); R. Beuchle, (2); S. Besnard, (1); J. Clevers, (1); E. Lindquist, (3); L. Verchot (4); A. Wijaya, (4)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for environment and sustainability (ies) Forest resources, ISPRAT, Italy; (3) Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy; (4) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiations are ongoing to build a framework for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and to enhance forest carbon stocks (sub-tropical non-annex I countries (REDD+). The UNFCCC considers addressing the drivers of deforestation and degradation crucial for the development and implementation of national REDD+ strategies and action plans, and encourages REDD+ countries to identify drivers and activities causing forest carbon emissions. Monitoring and tracking human activities that result in

forest carbon change (e.g. deforestation by agricultural expansion, mining etc.) is crucial. Earth Observation data can be used to derive information on follow-up land use which generates understanding about proximate causes and drivers of deforestation. This research assesses and quantifies deforestation drivers in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia in a systematic manner, building on the 2010 global Remote Sensing Survey of the FAO Forest Resource Assessment. Deforestation drivers are assessed by visual interpretation of forest change patches depicted from satellite imagery to derive follow-up land use of deforestation from 1990 to 2005. This allows to quantify the proportion of deforestation drivers which are then used to assess forest carbon emissions per driver. The focus for this conference will be on presenting the spatial distribution, trends and trajectories of regionally specific drivers of deforestation and associated carbon emissions.

## P-2219-06

### The action of indigenous peoples of the Amazon and the political economy of environmental change

D. Delgado Pugley (1)

(1) Université Catholique de Louvain, Etudes du développement, Louvain, Belgium

This communication aims to analyse the attempts to reform land and resources management policies that emanate from the global climate regime and concern the Upper Amazon region. It examines some of the coalitions, alliances, and negotiation strategies that have accompanied and shaped the process of climate change politics from the preparation of COP 15 in Copenhagen (2009) to the preparation of COP 21 in Paris (2015), along a line of related ethnography, it compares and contrasts the involvement in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries) negotiations of two transnational movements: the indigenous peoples movement, and the forest conservation coalitions. How do indigenous peoples of the Amazon region have occupied the political space created by climate change negotiations? Have they succeeded in gaining recognition and better access to resources and services within national work in one administrative, environmental organizations and indigenous peoples have found ways to avoid deforestation?

By following key mobilization processes of indigenous peoples during the period studied (2010–2014) in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia this paper aims to show the impact that indigenous peoples already have as political actors in the conservation of Amazonia. This communications aims to contribute to the understanding of the role of indigenous social movements in normative global orders by focusing on the way this political realm transforms the relationship between the «human» and «the environment» engaging non state actors on this task.

## P-2219-07

### Do REDD+ social safeguards reach the 'right' people?

J. Jones (1); B. Ramamjisoa (2); N. Hockley, (1); A. Rasoamanana (2); R. Mandimbinaia (2); S. Rakotanarivo (1); M. Poudyal, (1)

(1) Bangor University, School of environment, natural resources and geography, Bangor, United Kingdom; (2) University of Antananarivo, Ecole supérieure des sciences agronomie, Antananarivo, Madagascar

There is extensive debate about the potential impact of the climate mechanism REDD+ on the livelihoods and welfare of forest-dwelling people. To provide carbon credits, a forest carbon scheme must slow the rate of emissions. If this is achieved by slowing the expansion of agricultural land there is clearly a local cost. Madagascar has attracted significant investment in REDD+ and has a number of pilot projects with World Bank support. We focus on one such REDD+ pilot - the Ankeniwen Zahamena Corridor (CAZ). Some 2500 households around the corridor have been identified under World Bank safeguards as containing 'project affected people (PAPs)' and are receiving individual income generation projects as compensation. There has been controversy as to how such people are identified. We carried out intensive field work in one administrative unit, mapping the location of each household and selected
a random sample stratified by location for detailed household interviews about livelihoods, food security, and assets. We compared the characteristics of households identified as eligible for compensation with those not identified as eligible. We found that people living closest to the forest, with livelihoods most dependent on the forest, were less likely to be identified as PAPs while those living closest to the village centre and with powerful social positions were more likely. We interpret this as evidence of elite capture of the benefits being distributed. Given the extremely poor information available on local populations (even the location of quite significant villages is not available from maps), and the unwillingness of people's whose livelihood depends on illegal agricultural expansion to self-identify, it is unsurprising that the official process faced challenges. We question whether the approach of identifying and compensating particular households is practical in such settings and discuss what this means for ensuring that REDD+ can be implemented without harming local people's livelihood.

P-2219-08

Forest Degradation, Regeneration, and Farmers' Income: Evidence from Smallholders' Decisions in Vietnam

M. Li (1); A. De Pinto (1); TS. Thomas (2)

(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America

The interactions between agricultural production, forest conservation, and economic development are complex. Higher agricultural output prices and technologies that increase yield are expected to increase farmers' income and stimulate even more yields. However, higher agricultural input prices have mixed effects. On the hand, an increase in the opportunity costs of labor makes agriculture less profitable and can reduce pressures on fertilizers. On the other hand, raising costs associated fertilizer price may induce shift to extensive production systems that use more land and less fertilizer. This study presents new evidence about these relationships by focusing on forest degradation, regeneration, and farmers' income in Vietnam.

Vietnam has recently experienced forest transitions from net deforestation to net reforestation as many European countries and the United States underwent in the past. From 2000 to 2010, approximately 1.6 million hectares of timber forests were restored in the country. Reforestation, however, coincided with a net reduction of rich and medium timber forests, the area of which declined by 0.16 million hectares and 0.27 million hectares, respectively. In the meantime, the area of agricultural land increased by almost 2 million hectares, due largely to the expansion of permanent crops. Thus, understanding how agricultural sector affects forest resources and how these changes in turn affect rural economy have important implications for policy making.

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impacts of agriculture production on forest degradation and regeneration in Vietnam in the 2000-2010 decade. We compile highly detailed forest data for two years 2000 and 2010, which are derived from fine-scale vector data of land use developed by the International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF). The forest data are merged with ~40,000 household-level observations in ~3,000 communes from the 2008 Vietnam Household Living Standards Summes, which provides extensive information about farmers' income and expenditure. Using the data set, we address three questions: (1) How did agricultural output prices, input prices, and off-farm wage affect forest degradation and regeneration? (2) How did these changes subsequently influence farmers' income? (3) How did these influences vary with intensive agricultural production regions and frontier agricultural production regions?

Our study makes two contributions to the literature. First, the coexistence of forest degradation and regeneration in Vietnam provides an opportunity to study the influence of small farmers' decisions on forest resources at the micro level. The detailed forest data allow identifying changes in forest species, which helps to distinguish forest degradation from restoration. This is particularly important because to assess the impact of forest resource degradation on climate change, it is necessary to understand how forest carbon density changes. An oversight of the

spatial pattern of forest species may cause misleading estimates.

Second, this study provides empirical evidence of the interactions between agricultural production, forest conservation, and economic development. Land use change is arguably the most pervasive socioeconomic forces affecting economic and environmental systems. These forces drive a large portion of global economic and environmental problems, solving these problems requires a renewed focus on these interactions.

P-2219-09

Under-estimation of forest biomass loss with REDD+ standard reporting method

S. Mermoz (1); A. Bouvet (1); T. Le Toan (1)

(7) CESIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BioSphère), Toulouse, France

Tropical deforestation is estimated to total approximately 13 million hectares per year in the period 2000-2010. Tropical deforestation, resulting from different causes, is thought to be a major contributor to GHG emissions, leading to emissions of CO2 and, if the biomass is burnt during the clearing process, additional non CO2 gases. Emissions from tropical deforestation, forest and peat degradation are currently estimated to be 15% of the world's anthropogenic GHG emissions, mainly through CO2 emissions (in the range of 8-20%). In response to the evidence by the scientists of the value of protecting forests in tackling climate change, policymakers have developed a family of policies, collectively known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) to provide a financial incentive to governments, abroginations and communities to maintain rather than reduce forest cover. A key question for REDD+ measurement reporting and verification (MRV), is how much aboveground biomass (AGB) or carbon has been released. The standard method for REDD+ MRV consists in using earth observation optical data to assess change in forest cover, together with a priori knowledge of values of forest carbon per unit area. The shortcoming of the method is the lack of reliable distributed forest carbon density (biomass). In addition, current MRV results using optical remote sensing are dependent on the retained UNFCCC forest definitions, which are characterized by threshold values of tree crown cover, tree height, and minimum area. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are sensitive to forest AGB, thus a good indicator of deforestation. However, the wavelength could provide mapping of AGB and its change over time to be used for estimating carbon emissions. The available long wavelength SARs are 25 centimetres wavelength (L-band). Whereas AGB of dense tropical forest cannot be retrieved from L-band SAR data, biomass mapping of low AGB forests using spaceborne ALOS-PALSAR data has been object to several studies. Recently, mapping of savanna forest AGB has been achieved at 100 m resolution over Sub-Saharan Africa [1]. In this paper, the focus is on the assessment of African tropical AGB over the so-called "non forest" class, which is not taken into account into REDD+ processes. To do so, the AGB map from [1] has been improved and AGB from this map has been assessed in various countries over areas from the Landsat tree cover benchmark map [2] that are not considered as forests. The AGB map from [1] at 100 m resolution results from an inverse model using the empirical regression derived from AGB data and 2008 ALOS-PALSAR data. A correlation of AGB estimates over 81 plots (mean plot size is 0.98 hectare) from 7 African countries was used in this study to improve the AGB map. The mean AGB is meaned over tree crown cover values lower than 30%, the most widely used threshold. The results show that biomass loss estimation is clearly under-estimated when using standard methods such as changes in forest cover using spaceborne optical data. For example, the biomass stocks of non forest class in Zambia is 1,509 Mt, while the biomass stock of the non forest class leads to a significant underestimation of the carbon emissions associated to deforestation and degradation of savanna woodland. Within higher latitudes, mean AGB in non forest class was found to be logically lower but far from negligible. Therefore, SAR data could support REDD+
MRV, especially with the launch of BIOMASS satellite in 2020.

[1] A. Bouvet, T. Le Toan, and S. Mermoz, «An above-ground biomass map of african savannas at a resolution of 100 meters using ALOS PALSAR data,» Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2014 IEEE International, July 2013,ftp://ftp.legos.obs-mip.fr/pub/tmp3m/IGARSS2014/abstracts/2891.pdf

[2] J.O. Sexton, et al., «Global, 30-m resolution continuous fields of tree cover: Landsat-based rescaling of modis vegetation continuousfields with lidar-based estimates of error,» International Journal of Digital Earth, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 427-448, 2013

P-2219-10

Large scale agrofuels projects in the Tana River Delta, Kenya: an assessment of their purported climate benefits and their impact on ecosystem service delivery for the local population

L. Mukhwana (1) ; O. Hamerlynck, (2) ; Q. Luke, (3) ; S. Duvail (4) ; D. Nyingi (5)

(1) International Development Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Team, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) National Museums of Kenya, Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Group, Nairobi, Kenya; (4) IRD, UMR 208 «Patrimoines Locaux», Nairobi, Kenya; (5) National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

Over the past decade, the Tana River Delta in Kenya has attracted a lot of interest from foreign investors aiming to start large-scale development projects for agro-fuel production. Most of these projects have failed either to commence or to thrive but others are continuously coming up. From 2010, Bedford Biofuels a Canadian company acquired 160 000 ha of Land on the terraces surrounding the delta with the plan to convert it to a vast Jatropha curcas plantation. The rationale behind the investment was that the delta lands are unproductive and could be used to produce cheap and climate-friendly agro-fuels. In order to check this assumption a survey was conducted in May 2012 on the project area, assessing its wgyod vegetation and standing carbon stocks in order to compare their potential for REDD+ schemes with the proposed direct land use change by conversion to agro-fuel farms. This carbon stock assessment, combined with a wider analysis of the ecosystem services provided by the delta terraces have shown that there are more opportunities for the local communities in their current use of the Tana Delta land than in the option of the conversion to a vast Jatropha field. In this presentation we put emphasis on the risk of developing large scale agro-fuels projects without properly taking into account the various values of the ecosystem to the local users and without considering the existing customary land tenure rights. Resilience to climate change is more likely to improve when land rights are secured for traditional semi-nomadic livestock keeping and participatory land use planning with all use planning with all users.

P-2219-11

The development of FOREST: a Fully Optimised and Reliable Emissions Tool

A. Nouillas (1) ; N. Barbier (2) ; A. Barker (3) ; P. Bicheron (1) ; AC. Capel (4) ; N. Chenet (4) ; M. Deheza (5) ; C. Mathian (6) ; F. Maignan (7) ; N. Najdovski (8) ; J. Nightingale (3) ; N. Origo (3) ; F. Von Poncet (9) ; B. Poultier (8) ; M. Rageade (4) ; M. Schlund (9)

(1) Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France; (2) IRD-IRD AMAP, Montpellier, France; (3) National Physics Lab, Earth observations, Teddington, United Kingdom; (4) ONF International, Climate department, Paris, France; (5) CDC Climate Research, Paris, France; (6) Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France; (7) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France; (8) Montana State University, Ecosystem dynamics lab, Bozeman, United States of America; (9) Airbus Defence and Space, Geo-information services, Friedrichshafen, Germany

The objective of this poster is to present the different scientific components of the FOREST (Fully Optimised and Reliable Emissions Tool) project that gathers since 2014 the expertise of seven European institutions working

together thanks to funding provided by the project funded by the EIT- Climate KIC.

The FOREST project aims to positively respond to the growing demand of forest carbon stakeholders for trusted, fully integrated and cost effective Measuring Reporting Verification (MRV) service components, enabling forest carbon projects and initiatives to achieve carbon goals, i.e. emission reduction and/or stock enhancement. It brings essential building blocks for such services, including the observations from space, the local in-situ ground measurements to calibrate these observations, the forest maps and the theoretical model needed to estimate and manage the carbon sequestered in forested areas. By providing cost effective capacities driven by market and end users, the project will improve the process of MRV for forest carbon at project/national scale.

Remote sensing by satellite is a practical way to get large geographical and ideally global information about forests, especially in remote regions that are difficult to access. Satellite imagery, optical and radar, is used to basically determine land cover/use and land cover/use changes and to map forests. It provides essential information that is used:

* to establish historical forest maps

* to feed carbon model

* to design / optimize sampling scheme

* to understand drivers of deforestation & degradation

* to measure performance of projects and effectiveness of public policies

Although pre-operational solutions exist, some issues such as the lack of standardization, the overall cost (transaction and implementation) or the overall achievable quality & reliability can hamper the development of the forest projects and undermine market attractiveness. There is considerable room for improving existing methods and to design innovative solutions, for developing solutions that bring effective value to money, for tackling pending issues that are key priorities in the international negotiations such as degradation monitoring.

The FOREST partners are currently working on developing 'forest mapping' and 'carbon modelling' services relying on:

* Provision and processing of Earth Observation (EO) data (optical and radar) for deriving primary products required in the assessment of forest cover and change,

* Determining canopy texture features at local and regional scales based on these EO data for a better characterization of forest structure

* Developing the ORCHIDEE carbon flux model which is already recognized by the scientific community towards its operational implementation in national and regional REDD+ MRV systems.

* Quality Assurance, calibration and validation strategies for each step supported by existing ground based in situ measurements or products accuracy assessment already established through robust meteorological practices will allow to provide an uncertainty for the overall services.

In order to assess the market size for this technology and to evaluate the potential savings for project developers a market analysis will be performed.

The poster will present the technical approach of this project as well as the different outcomes that can be achieved through this interdisciplinary collaboration.

P-2219-12

Conservativeness and technical corrections foster broad participation and advanced reporting standards for REDD+

D. Plugge (1) ; T. Baldauf (2) ; M. Köhl (1)

(1) Institute for World Forestry, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; (2) Institute for World Forestry, Johann Heinrich von Thunen Institut, Hamburg, Germany