The proposed presentation deals with one of the main issues for scientists and policy makers regarding the combat against global climate change in the realm of tropical forests: the realization of a credible mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+).

One of the major topics within building the framework for REDD+ is the consideration of the role of estimating reduced emissions via a measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system. IPCC requires applying the principle of conservativeness to address these uncertainties (IPCC 2006) by constructing a reliability interval around a carbon stock estimate and utilize the lower bound of the interval for reporting. This, however, can have severe consequences to countries that are willing to participate in the REDD+. Despite successfully reducing emissions, some countries may have little to no chance of achieving benefits from REDD+ due to high uncertainties and the application of the principle of conservativeness (Köhl et al. 2009, Pluggel und Köhl 2012, Pluggel et al. 2013). In consequence, this would preclude many countries from participating in REDD+. Broad participation is, however, one important prerequisite to make the mechanism a success, e.g. to reduce undesired displacement of emissions (leakage) as explicitly mentioned in the three safeguards (UNFCCC 2011) or to achieve the overall 2°C goal. Consequently, it would be able to participate in REDD+, countries need to implement higher MRV and reporting systems standards (Tier 2 or Tier 3). At the moment most countries are not in a situation to meet these high standards due to (among others) capacity or costs constraints.

In this study we identify a way of how to overcome the consequences of climate change and the principle of conservativeness may have with regard to the participation of countries in the mechanism. To lower the entry threshold for countries interested in REDD+, recent discussions (Grassi et al. 2013) involve the option of temporarily reducing the strictness of reporting and applying a discount for uncertainties. The study analyzes the effectiveness of this proposal for two accounting periods. Our results confirm that by lowering the entry threshold participation is fostered and benefits from reducing emissions are achieved by the countries. However, at the same time our results show that countries would make a profit by maintaining low reporting standards with associated high uncertainty. Nevertheless, continuously advancing in the MRV and reporting standards is a prerequisite for participation in REDD+. To overcome this discrepancy we propose to allow for adopting technical corrections implemented in the Kyoto Protocol also for reporting. Technical corrections are used for a backward recalibration of reported values when the MRV and reporting standards have been improved towards higher standards. We show that by including technical corrections countries profit more than by maintaining low standards. Therefore, the combination of conservativeness and technical corrections represents a coherent solution to promote reliable and advanced reporting, foster broad promotion, and achieve benefits from REDD+.

IPCC. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Japan, 2006).

Köhl, M. Baldauf, T. Pluggel, D. & Krug, J. Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track, Carbon Balance and Management 4 (2009).

Pluggel, D. & Köhl, M. Estimating carbon emissions from forest degradation: implications of uncertainties and area sizes for a REDD+ MRV system, Can. J. For. Res. 42, (2012).

Pluggel, D. Baldauf, T. & Köhl, M. The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits, Climatic Change 119, (2013).

UNFCCC. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth session. Part 2: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its sixteenth session. Decision 1/CP16 (2011).

Grassi, G. Federici, S. & Achard, F. Implementing conservativeness in REDD+ is realistic and useful to address the most uncertain estimates, Climatic Change 119, (2013).

# Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

A. Popp (1); F. Humpenöeder (2); I. Weindl (1); B. Bodirsky (1); M. Bonsch (1); H. Lotze-Campen (3); C. Müller (1); A. Biewald (1); S. Rolinski (1); M. Stevanovic (4); J. Dietrich (1) (1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (3) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD3 Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany

Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon losses and contributes substantially to global warming [1]. The future development of forest area is uncertain, but deforestation is projected to persist as a significant emission source in the absence of new forest conservation policies, especially under increasing demand for agricultural commodities. Despite the general scientific agreement on environmental benefits of forest conservation, and although the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has affirmed the potential role of forests in stabilizing the global climate, no global action has yet emerged to conserve natural forests. One key issue for the implementation of REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) is how to address leakage of emissions [2]. Without full participation of all countries in a forest conservation scheme, emission reductions in one location could result in increased emissions elsewhere, as agricultural expansion, the main driver for deforestation, could just be displaced rather than avoided (international leakage). However, carbon leakage is not only relevant in the context of regionalized forest protection efforts. Another risk associated with a global REDD scheme that so far has not been quantified in the literature is the shift of land-use pressures to non-forest ecosystems (non-forest leakage), simply because they are the only remaining resource for agricultural expansion. Such ecosystems may also be rich in carbon. First, areas under natural vegetation other than forest, such as shrublands and savannas, can also store considerable amounts of aboveground carbon. Second, carbon-rich soils also play a major part in the terrestrial carbon balance and have to be taken into consideration. For this reason, carbon stocks decline strongly after land is converted from grasslands and pastures to cropland. Finally, agricultural activity can reduce carbon sequestration by preventing regrowth of natural vegetation on abandoned agricultural land.

In this study, we estimate land-use and associated carbon stock dynamics for different global terrestrial carbon policies at global and regional scale using the land-use optimization model MaGPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impacts on the Environment) [3, 4]. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hindered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.

## References

1. Houghton, R. A. et al. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9, 51255142 (2012).

2. Lambin, E. F. & Meyfroidt, P. Global land use change, economic globalization and the doming land scarcity. Proced. Natl. Acad. USA 108, 3686-3742 (2011).

3. Lotze-Campen, H. et al. Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: A spatially explicit mathematical programming approach. Agric. Econ. 39, 325338 (2008).

4. Popp, A. et al. Land use protection for climate change mitigation. Nature Climate Change 4, 1095-1098 (2014)
# Ensuring community benefits; case study of REDD+ in Ghana

## AR. Saeed (1)

(1) University of Reading, Geography and Environmental Science, Reading, United Kingdom

In the last decade, United Nations negotiations have been on going on using forests to mitigate climate change via the mechanism known as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus the added value of conservation, enhancement of forest carbon stocks and sustainable forest management (REDD+). With support from organisations like the World Bank and the collaborative efforts of UNDP, UNEP and FAO, forest countries across the globe have started to get REDD+ ready. Getting REDD+ ready includes running pilot projects and implementing other readiness initiatives to feed into the systems and strategies countries are laying out for REDD+ and to reform already existing climate and forest governance institutions. The purpose of this research is to understand how local communities harness such new carbon economy opportunities (or not). The study is a multi-sited case study approach in Ghana employing systematic literature review, semi-structured interviews, and mapping in focus groups and document analysis as the main methods of identifying what can be learnt at the international level from the local level implementation of such carbon mechanisms.

# Future scenarios for the north of Amapá State considering REDD+ as a conservation tool

## E. Sotta (1); V. Guadalupe (2); LJGD. Aguiar (3); VF. Santos (4); L. Martorano, (5)

(1) Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - EMBRAPA, Embrapa Amapá, Macapá, Brazil; (2) Ativos Socioambiental, Brasília, Brazil; (3) Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Meteorologia, Pelotas, Brazil; (4) Instituto de Pesquisas Científicas e Tecnológicas do Estado do Amapá - IEPA, Lab. de sensoriamento remoto e análises espaciais aplicada a ecossistemas de floresta, Pelotas, Macapá, Brazil; (5) Embrapa, Agrometeorologia, Belém, Brazil

The ecosystem services provided by forests are important for ecosystem maintenance, and support, protect or affect the activities and human well-being. Much of the forests in the north region of Eastern Amazon are under some type of protection, being one of the most pristine areas of the Amazon. In Amapá these forests may be threatened by being in an area of the border with French Guiana, where the current political development of the State is being targeted, resulting in actions that modify the current scenario and pressure on natural resources in the region.

This study assessed how the provision and maintenance of ecosystem services such as carbon stocks can contribute to local and regional sustainable development. This study allowed creating development scenarios for the northern allowed Amapa to 2030. These results contribute

to the discussion of a policy to subsidize programs aiming at reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) and payment for ecosystem services (PES) implementation, by defining priority areas in the border region between Amapa and French Guiana.

This study was conducted in the northern region of the State of Amapá across the municipalities of Calcione and Diapoque. This area lays with the Guyana Shield, which is characterized by a low population density, difficult access to remote forest areas and for being a geological and biological unit where high levels of endemism and biodiversity exists.

The opportunity cost of avoiding forest conversion was generated using information of the net present value (NPV) of four land use activities (forest, cattle ranching, and gold mining) and the average carbon stock values of these land use categories. This latter data was associated with a land transition matrix, processed using the REDD Abacus SP software. The output was the differences derived from the returns of the forest and those land uses that will replace it, with differences in carbon stocks of the emissions avoided by not converting the forest to other uses. Three opportunity cost scenarios were modelled to which a sensitivity analysis was done and, based on these results, scenarios were simulated.

The cumulative reduction of forest cover in 2030 was higher in the pessimistic scenario compared to the other two simulated scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, we observed a clear effect in reducing deforestation by implementing a program of PES-REDD+, which resulted in a level of deforestation close to the historical projection.

The opportunity cost of avoiding the conversion of land use at the current per ton of carbon price (R$ 14.6/tCO₂e = R$ 7.5/tCO₂e) varied between R$ 3.00/tCO₂e and R$ 2410.00/tCO₂e, corresponding to a potential annual reduction of emissions between 0.14 and 0.02 tCO₂e per hectare. The largest potential abatement of emissions derived from avoiding forest conversion to cattle ranching activities (0.14 tCO₂e ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) at a cost of R$ 3.00/tCO₂e. Included variations in profitability (NPV) of land uses associated with the three scenarios of deforestation, livestock continue to be the most attractive activity for the implementation of a REDD + project.

In modeling the opportunity cost in terms of the three scenarios of deforestation, we found that the pastures activities remained as the most attractive activity for developing REDD+ projects, with an average cost of R$ 4.93 ± 2.73/tCO₂e for the three scenarios, at the current average price per ton of carbon. This shows the potential of establishing a program of payment for environmental services with small cattle ranching producers who practice a low-productivity activity.

The balance between the implementation of the conservation policies and economic development will give the state alternatives for successfully implement REDD+ mechanism. However, this success will depend on strengthening of institutional capacities and land regularization measures, which will provide the necessary information to the construction of the policies and the REDD+ strategy of the state. This study gives various elements to support the construction of such a policy, especially for the construction of its baseline.

# 2220 - Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2220-01

#### Adaptation Services : How biodiversity can support climate adaptation pathways

S. Lavorel (1); M. Colloff (2); S. Mcintyre (2); M. Doherty (2); M. Dunlop (3); H. Murphy (4); D. Metcalfe (5); R. Wise (6)

(1) CNRS, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble, France; (2) CSIRO, Land and Water National Research Flagship, Canberra, Australia; (3) CSIRO, Land & water, canberra, Australia; (4) CSIRO, Land and water flagship, Atherton, Australia; (5) CSIRO, Land and water flagship, Brisbane, Australia; (6) CSIRO, Land and water flagship, Canberra, Australia

This abstract is a submission to parallel session N° 2220 of theme 21: Landscape & ecosystems adaptation, with the title «Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice»

The IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report states it is very likely that surface temperature and sea levels will continue to rise and that extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. The interaction of climate change with other drivers of global change amplifies existing risks to social-ecological systems, and creates new ones. Adaptation to climate change should therefore
be acknowledged as a long-term driver of economic, social, political and cultural transformations.

Ecosystem services are often valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human well-being, although in the medium- to long-term ecosystem services that sustain such benefits (referred to as regulating and supporting services in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment terminology) must be considered. In the context of climate change and its expected dramatic and likely abrupt impacts on ecosystems and on societies, an additional role for ecosystems towards human well-being has been considered, and referred to as Ecosystem-based Adaptation. Going one step further, a broader framework can be proposed for the identification, understanding and management of so-called adaptation services. Adaptation services are defined as the benefits people derive from the capacity of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to the effects of climate change.

Adaptation services differ from ecosystem services by formally recognising the intrinsic ability of ecosystems to provide valuable services for societal adaptation by (i) buffering risks, (ii) providing options and (iii) transforming. In contrast to ecosystem-based adaptation, which has been addressed under decision-making status quo, for adaptation services to emerge and inform effective adaptation, new decision contexts that incorporate the integrated transformation of values, rules and knowledge are required. In particular, new transdisciplinary knowledge will be required to drive such social changes, and to achieve consensus on decisions and actions.

As a first step, the uptake of the concept of adaptation services by scientists, managers and policy makers requires proof of the concept and identification of key underpinning mechanisms so as to move beyond a conceptual definition and iconic story lines, and to develop innovative management solutions. In this presentation we will demonstrate such a proof of concept by means of a common methodological framework applied to ecosystems from a range of latitudes and with key roles in ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change.

This framework facilitates implementation of an adaptation services approach and enables synthesis across case studies. In particular, using such a comparative approach we propose hypotheses on functional mechanisms underpinning adaptation services required to support transition and transformation of socio-ecological systems, such as the role of keystone species and keystone national groups for the role of different types of response diversity. Landscape connectivity already does, and is expected to play a key role for transition and/or transformation of fragmented systems.

We then identify initial principles for the management of adaptation services that range from the management of pre-existing adaptation services that will support adaptation, planning and adaptation by steering new adaptation services, and to the restoration of adaptation services in degraded ecosystems. Lastly we discuss alternative adaptation pathways that could meet multiple objectives of nature conservation and human well-being.

## K-2220-02

### Ecosystem services in forest conservation for climate change mitigation: a cross-site analysis of REDD+ projects

J. Förster (1) ; R. Seppelt, (2) ; T. Vaclavik (2)

(1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Dept. computational landscape ecology / dept. environmental policy, Leipzig, Germany. (2) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Computational landscape ecology, Leipzig, Germany

This presentation is part of parallel session 2220 «Landscape & ecosystems adaptation» with the title «Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice».

The presentation provides insights into the role of ecosystem services in projects for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The role of ecosystem services in reducing REDD+ projects was analysed in a cross-site comparison, revealing opportunities and trade-offs in delivering climate change

mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development at the landscape level.

REDD+ has become a well-established building block of climate change policies under the UNFCCC. Policies require REDD+ projects to comply with safeguards for maintaining and enhancing forest ecosystem services. This cross-site analysis of REDD+ projects indicates, that the role of REDD+ can be addressed in multiple ecosystem services relevant to climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development, with benefits to local communities. However, the analysis also reveals challenges when it comes to the effectiveness of REDD+ projects in mitigating carbon emissions and at the same time providing benefits to local communities.

The findings of this analysis inform on 1) how REDD+ projects comply with safeguards defined in UNFCCC policies, and 2) how REDD+ projects contribute to mitigation and adaptation at a landscape level.

## K-2220-03

### REDD+ delivery models at landscape level: the crucial role of private sector, for session «N° 2220 - Landscape & ecosystems adaptation» with the title «Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice»

I. Nhanthumbo, (1)

(1) International Institute for Environment and Development, Natural resources group, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Addressing REDD+ requires interventions at scale to address the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation within large landscapes where competing users and land uses provide an opportunity and a challenge in reducing emissions. IED has been conducting research to understand the role and risks of private sector in REDD+ as well as the institutional and policy frameworks that govern their involvement in implementation of REDD+ - particular focus was on carbon rights and benefit sharing. A database of 115 REDD+ initiatives in Africa, Asia and Latin America was constructed. Case studies from DRC, Mozambique and Tanzania provided for detailed analysis of the legislations and institutional arrangement in place at national and local level. This presentation will share some of the key findings related to issues of carbon rights and benefit sharing as clarity on this is core to REDD+ delivery models that are inclusive, equitable and sustainable. In addition, IED is conducting research and testing REDD+ at the Beira Landscape Corridor in Mozambique including three provinces (Manica, Sofala and Zambezia) in which four models were identified to address key drivers in agriculture, biomass energy, timber and non-timber harvesting practices. The role of private sector in implementing sustainable land use changes to reduce emissions is important. However, it has been equally acknowledged that public finance for REDD+ can only do so much. Private capital is needed to provide the impetus for large scale and sustainable investment required for meaningful and measurable emissions reduction. There are questions however: what is the formulae for this private capital and who are the winners and losers? Is the model economically viable as well as socially and environmentally sound? Are the local small scale enterprises requiring the capital to invest in sustainable land uses likely to be a conduit for generating profits for financiers alone or they stand to gain as well? What safeguards need to be in place to secure win-win solutions?

## O-2220-01

### The role of ecosystems in Disaster Risk reduction

J. Kloos (1) ; J. Frélichová (2) ; S. Van Der Meulen (3) ; F. Renaud (4) ; E. Lorencová (2) ; Z. Sebesvari (1)

(1) United Nations University, Institute for environment and human security unu-ehs, Bonn, Germany; (2) Czechobloge, Department of human dimensions of global change, Brno, Czech Republic; (3) Deltafours, Utrecht, Netherlands; (4) United Nations University, Institute for environment and human security (unu-ehs), Bonn, Germany

Ecosystems have the capacity to play an important role in disaster risk reduction (DRR) as well as in climate change
adaptation (CCA). In the context of DRR, ecosystems contribute to hazard mitigation as well as to the reduction of the so called "underlying risk" as outlined in the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA, 2005). Although engineered structures are still preferred and promoted by planning authorities dealing with disaster risk reduction in many cases, there is an increasing number of applications of ecosystem based solutions in disaster risk reduction worldwide. Similarly ecosystem based adaptation (EBA) meal kit is significantly higher than previously expected of such measures are wave dampening by willow or mangrove forests, functional green infrastructure in urban areas or sustainable land management in drylands. The ESP working group on Ecosystem Services and Disaster Risk reduction aims to integrate the concept of ecosystem services into DRR and CCA and provides a platform for research investigating the potential of ecosystem-based approaches for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). After discussing relevant concepts and identifying potential synergies, this presentation will showcase a number of applications in a range of contexts based on the existing research activities within the working group. For some selected cases, the role of ecosystem services and how they contribute to reducing risks and vulnerabilities and/or contribute to climate change adaptation will be presented. The presentation will also highlight linkages to other ESP working groups that provide solutions for disaster risk reduction from specific ecosystems perspective, such as for fresh water and marine environments.

O-2220-02

## A Community Forestry-landscape based approach to climate change adaptation

R. Pairojmahakij (1); R. Triraganon, (1); D. Gritten, (1); B. Poudyal, (2)

(1) RECOFTC, Bangkok, Thailand; (2) RECOFTC, Kathmandu, Nepal

International debate on the role of forests in climate change has thus far mainly focused on their potential to mitigate Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHGs), particularly through the REDD+ mechanism. However, the role of forests in contributing to climate change adaptation has been gaining recognition. In addition to the efficiencies in linking adaptation and mitigation funding and project activities, a key rationale for focusing on forest landscapes for adaptation is the reliance of approximately 450 million people on forests in the Asia Pacific region alone. The contributions of forests to the livelihoods of these local communities is significantly higher than previously thought and thus a major contributor to their adaptive capacity. Conversely, local communities may prove to be critical in on the ground implementation of activities to support ecosystem resilience. Community forestry (CF) in this context is of particular importance as a modality for providing multiple benefits to local communities, and the various assets required for adaptive capacity in a context of climate change. The focus of this research article is to present a CF based climate change adaptation framework, which is grounded in 10 case studies in Cambodia, Indonesia, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam, and the recent piloting of this framework in the Terai of Nepal.

## 2220-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2220-01

### Ecosystem services as determinants of social-ecological system transformations: Dojran Lake, Macedonia

I. Lleiva (1); C. Giupponi (2); D. Bojovic, (1)

(1) Ca' Fosciari University of Venice / Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Venice, Italy; (2) Ca' Fosciari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venice, Italy

Global environmental change often triggers abrupt and irreversible ecosystem shifts resulting in transformations of social-ecological systems. The capacity to adapt to such variable and uncertain conditions is a unique learning opportunity to better understand factors underpinning systems' resilience. This study examines a social-ecological system through the lens of ecosystem services and their role as determinants of a transformation.

The project Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) at Dojran lake in Macedonia applied the ecosystem services framework to examine the impacts of sudden natural disasters affecting Dojran Lake in Macedonia. Once a significant site in the Balkan peninsula, known for its water health benefits, fisheries, and abundant hydrological resources for agriculture and surrounding settlements, the lake has experienced two extreme shocks resulting in flood (1955 - 1956) and drought (1989). The shocks were detrimental for the small, mesotrophic -eutrophic lake of 42.5 km2 and with the maximum depth of 10 m. The research is focused on the latter, anthropologically driven, event, which lead to a 60 cm drop in water level of the lake, a recession of lake's margins up to 100 m from the main settlement, the disappearance of much of the western littoral zone, and significant biodiversity loss. All these resulted in long-term impacts on the social-ecological system and overall economic downturn associated with collapse of the local fisheries industry and decreased tourism.

In the attempt to better understand how did the abrupt transformation affect ecosystem services and human wellbeing, we collected and analysed information through the following activities:

1. identification of main stakeholders at Dojran lake and analysis of their relevant role in the process of transformation;

2. analysis of social, ecological, and economic factors defining the current state of the system;

3. identification and prioritization of ecosystem services and their current conditions;

4. exploration of the stakeholders' visions about desired future social-ecological pathways and consultation of the development strategies of the local government.

The collected information contributed to the development of a holistic picture of the actors and components necessary to understand the resilience of the system emphasizing the dynamic characters of the internal transformation processes.

The research was further guided by the principal question of how the listed information can provide insights for the management and conservation of the altered social-ecological system. Results show that the state of ecosystem services provision has dramatically decreased; nevertheless they continue to be determinant for local communities' wellbeing and an indicator for their adaptive capacity. We identified recreational services, fisheries and agricultural production as the key ecosystem services. Their intensified exploitation, however, is guided by past livelihood patterns, which can hardly be supported by the current state of the ecosystem and which can be exposed to further risks in the perspective of climatic changes. Although the visions about the prospects of development in the area were rather heterogeneous, there is a common shared awareness of the need to preserve and valorize key ecosystem services.

The analysis of past sudden social-ecological transitions through an ecosystem services approach provides a comprehensive framework for the research of adaptive and coping capacities inherent in the system and the identification of its main vulnerabilities. These results represent a step forward towards identifying enabling factors to incorporate ecosystem services in the development process of the area, while strengthening the capacities for adaptive management of social and ecological systems in view of possible future shocks.

P-2220-02

### Impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem service delivery using remote sensing, GIS and social innovation tools at Duiwenhoks catchment

M. Tshindane (1)

(1) South African National Biodiversity Institute, Climate Change Adaptation Division, Western Cape, South Africa

Historic spatial land cover databases consisting of maps and land use patterns are important tools for monitoring impacts of land cover change. Such a database was constructed for Duiwenhoks catchment in the Western
Cape, South Africa from 1940 to 2010 in order to assess land cover dynamics at a long scale (70 years). This, coupled with attribute climatic data and streamflow dynamics will be useful in modelling future hydrologic patterns, ecosystem services sustenance and resilience to natural and anthropogenic impacts such as floods and increased vegetation clearing for agricultural purposes respectively in the 21st half century (2050) using ACRU. To achieve this black and white Aerial Photographs (APs) were used to build the land cover maps highly in a decimal series (1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980 and 2010) with the exception of 1980 due to bad raw datasets which was technically deemed impractical to be used for this study. Research tools for the project were advanced software in GIS (ArcGIS 10.1) and Remote Sensing (ERDAS Intergrund 2014 and ENVI 4.4) to perform desktop applications like geo-referencing, image cropping, mosaicking, projection and post classification. The project used remote sensing tools for textural analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), supervised and unsupervised classification to build the spatial land cover maps. An error matrix using 80 sampling points per land cover class and ground truthing was used to quantify the degree of correctness resulting in a 60% overall classification and 58% Kappa index. Furthermore, interviews with the farmers, long-standing residents, private land owners, and the Duiwenhoks Water User Association and conservation planners were used to assess the trends of the effectiveness of environmental policy and ecosystem based adaptation mechanisms that are rolled out by different organisations in the study area. Findings of the study show a loss of natural vegetation from the 1940's especially in riparian zones of the middle catchment. An observed increase in dam construction also indicate the increase in demand for irrigation water for both crops and livestock production. With good national and international policies in place, to promote hydraulic management a need to structure locally developed environmental adaptation tools. Other studies indicate that the hierarchical list of planning documents and environmental issues become diluted in terms of their relevance to local development due to a weak alignment of policies and legislation (Sitas et al. 2013). The on-going gabion construction project (Duiwenhoks Goukou Wetland Rehabilitation project) is one of the success adaptation mechanisms being rolled out in the Duiwenhoks catchment because prior to its conclusion, several of the objectives like maintaining streamflow and halting river bank erosion appear to have been achieved. Additional to the gabion construction adaptation response, the alien vegetation clearing exercise has also proved to be yielding substantial results in the middle catchment. However, at the upper catchment below the Langeberg Mountains, the alien clearing programme should have immediately followed up the clearing exercise by planting endemic plants that will protect the soil from further erosion due to its looseness and exposure to runoff. Therefore, alien clearing should take note of the seasons in which to act on because performing the exercise in mid-winter makes the exposed soil erosion debris which waits to be washed into the main river and other feeding streams.

P-2220-03

Traditional plant-phenological observations at the Hungarian Meteorological Service

E. Vincke (1)

(1) Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary

The relationship of the vegetation and climate is obvious from the first observations of the nature. Climate change has a strong impact on the flora of each country, which can be followed by the study of phenology. The task of plant-phenology is to observe and analyse the periodically recurring biological processes such as budburst, flowering, fruit ripening, and leaf fall. This is the scientific discipline, which is able to link vegetation dynamics with climate variables.

Phenological observations in Hungary started in 1871. The observation system of the Hungarian Meteorological

Service (OMSZ) collapsed and revived time by time, until it was closed because of financial problems in 2000. Due to the reorganization of the institute, unfortunately, a part of the datasets were destroyed. Between 2009 and 2014 within the framework of a scientific research fund we had an opportunity - beside the main tasks of the project - to study the archive records.

In the last two years we collected detailed statistics about the digitalized and the only-paper datasets and tried to methodize the whole available digitalized and paper-based database. The paper will present the archive phenological data collection of the Hungarian Meteorological Service between 1871 and 2000.

P-2220-04

Economic Contribution of Communal Land Restoration to Rural Livelihood; a Case Study in Ethiopia

YT. Weldesema (1)

(1) Watersheds Organisational and Livelihood Affairs Support, Research and Development, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Restoration of natural capital in areas with conservation interest has significant potential in the conservation of biodiversity and thereby increasing the economics of the area. Despite such qualitative assertions, quantitative accounting of restoration areas is hardly ever assessed in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the economic net benefits of the restoration of degraded community conservation area by comparing the cost of restoration inputs; with the income generated from the restoration outputs. The restored conservation area cost and benefit are projected temporally to 2025 the time when the restoration outputs yield maximum and spatially to the large-scale communal land holdings in the study region. The study findings indicated that not all economically valued restoration outputs contribute to conservation area community incomes. The present net benefit from the study area generated an income of USD 158, which is almost half the national per capita income during the study. After the restoration outputs yielded maximum, net benefit expected from this study area increased incomes of beneficiaries six times more. Whereas restoring all the communal land in the study area would increase incomes to USD 4,526, which is way over what the government aims to achieve with its acclaimed 2025 Growth and Transformation Plan. However, to realize this it will require thorough research for the development of markets for different bio-geographic zones and evolving appropriate working plan prescriptions. Moreover, the possibilities of linking these services to international protocols in conservation of natural resources, global warming, and world trade have to be explored.
Faced with high climate variability and a multitude of
development challenges, people in the semi-arid regions
of Africa and Asia are particularly vulnerable to climate-
related risks. Interventions to date have focused mainly
on short-term solutions, leaving large gaps in our
understanding of which responses will enable widespread,
effective and sustained adaptation over longer time
horizons.

The Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR)
project aims to fill the above knowledge gap. Central to the
ASSAR project is a focus on multi-stakeholder processes,
which help in identifying key adaptation and development-
related vulnerabilities, and determining responses that can
yield tangible and lasting benefits to society.

Key insights are emerging from South Asia's multi-
institutional team's research and interaction with a range
of stakeholders. Over the past year, policy makers, senior
government officials, community members, academics as
well as practitioners were engaged through a variety of
formats including key informant interviews, participatory
workshops and research validation events.

Initial research findings suggest that the welfare cost of
climate change impacts in India varies across geographies
and sectors. Given the high prevalence of natural resource
based livelihoods, high incidence of poverty and inherent
soil-economic inequalities, a significant section of the
population is ill-equipped to adapt to current and projected
climate variability. While households dependent on
agriculture are directly affected, those living in urban areas
are also affected by declining agricultural productivity. At
the same time, rapid and largely unplanned urbanization
manifests in an intense competition for resources and land.
Quality of life for marginalized groups in urban
areas is characterized by lack of access to social capital,
poor quality of jobs and exclusion from public services.
This begs the question whether migration for livelihood
diversification or improved well-being actually translates
into a reduction in vulnerability, or simply into a differently
characterized vulnerability.

Practitioners working with urban dwellers and rural
households over decades carry unique tacit knowledge
of local barriers to effective adaptation, mal-adaptive
practices and the unintended outcomes of current
institutional, policy and governance structures. As part
of ASSAR, climate scientists aim to generate climate
messages with the intention to test whether improved
climate information heightens adaptive capacity, for
those whose lives and livelihoods are directly exposed to
climate-related risks. Social scientists are poised to study
local governance structures that control the sharing of
common resources such as water and forests, as well as
patterns of migration across a rural to urban continuum.
Research across different domains is driven by the need to
produce knowledge which is useful to vulnerable people
living in semi-arid regions, either directly or through
policy influence.

Using a collaborative research approach, while drawing
upon the experiences of practitioners, ASSAR aims to
inform climate change adaptation policy and practice
in ways that strengthen livelihoods and sustain the
well-being of the most vulnerable. Conducting and
aligning such research is a complex task, requiring at all
levels, leaders who can converse in several disciplinary
discourses, becoming conduits of scientific and practical
knowledge across different communities. At the same
time, the project generates valuable lessons for future
research initiatives aspiring to contribute to climate
change adaptation.

The previsions say that the semiarid regions in the world
are between the most impacted by the global climate
damage. In Northeastern Brazil, among the environmental
(lost of biodiversity, extreme droughts), social (migrations,
diseases exposition) and economics (reduction on income
generation, in employment rates, and in the Gross
Domestic Product) of global warming, it is affirmed
strong pressures specially over the environment, the
agriculture and livestock because of the increase of the
rain irregularity and increase of evaporation. During the
last century Northeastern Brazil and several particularly late
state of Ceará, was submitted to successive catastrophic
droughts that enhanced severe famine and massive
migrations towards the big urban centers in southeastern
Brazil. Land use in this semi arid area has increased the
size of degraded areas and the intensity of degradation and
desertification. Overgrazing by livestock is the main origin
for the degradation process. However, with the climate
warming and the drastic decrease of livestock production
farmers were forced to revert to more primitive forms of
subsistence farming with a land rotation system (nomadic
farming) that relies on fire for vegetation clearing during
the dry season. With the increase in human population
density and the partitioning of the large landlord farms, the
interval between each land use cycle has been decreasing.

The IPCC 2014 report shows that increase in temperature
change in seasonality and decrease in precipitation will
strongly affect this region although a large uncertainty due
to the scarcity of regional data that prevents a good
precision in most of the reconstruction models.

The multidisciplinary project developed at the UFC in the
frame of a cooperation with IRD aimed to reconstruct the
climate and landscape changes during the 20th century.
The project is multidisciplinary and is using an historical
reconstruction of land use based on microfossil data, the
current state of vegetation cover and the genetic diversity
of key indicator species.

Modern landscapes are described in different types of
degraded areas, from well preserved to very degraded,
through botanical surveys and remote sensing analyses.
The evolution of the landscape during the last century is
analysed on the base of paleo ecological methods adapted
to shorter time scales. Short sediment cores were collected
in selected dams within the different ecosystems and
changes in landscape are reconstructed on the base of bio
indicators and microcharcoal analyses. These changes are
compared with observed climate datasets. Climate and man
influence and impact on the desertification processes are
defined at fine scale and analysed separately. We aim to
answer the following questions: (i) what is the history of
land use and diversity loss in areas under a degradation/
desertification process in the last century?(ii) What is the
quality of the biodiversity in the surrounding area of
the degraded areas? (iii) How the defined ecosystem services
could be used for natural or induced restoration/recovery
of the degraded areas?(iv) what will be the resilience of the
remaining Caatinga areas for the next century ?

This project started in 2014 and is carried out by
researchers at the Federal University of Ceará, Brazil
- UFC and the Institute of Evolutionary Sciences of the
Montpellier 2 University, France.
O-2222-03

# Adaptive Capacity and Risk management: Evidence from household-level data from semi-arid tropical villages in India

A. Rahman (1); C. Singh (2); P. Mudliar (3)

(1) Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India;

(2) Indian Institute of Human Settlements, Bangalore, India;

(3) iihs, Bangalore, India

## Objective

This paper attempts to provide evidence on how households respond to climatic variability and extreme events such as droughts/floods in the semi-arid regions villages of India. It looks at how vulnerabilities inherent in farming households and the risks faced by them, which shape and affect local adaptive capacity. Two key questions which this paper would be address are - the impact of climate change on food production and the extent of climate induced migration. The paper focusses on semi-arid regions since this region is highly vulnerable to several socio-economic risks apart from rainfall-related production risk.

## Background

Semi-arid regions constitute almost 53 percent of India's land cover, where agriculture is the primary source of livelihood. In addition to being drought-prone and being vulnerable to rainfall-related production risks, semi-arid regions are characterized by higher levels of poverty, poorer asset ownership, higher indebtedness, smaller land holdings, and lower levels of land productivity. Poor performance of agriculture and lack of other livelihoods options further limit their capacities to anticipate and respond to climatic variability.

## Data

Household level panel data for 17 villages in India has been collected by the International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) which is used for the analysis here. This is a unique dataset in the sense that it provides an opportunity to track the economic status of households over time along with the information whether they faced droughts/floods during the period and the response adopted by them.

## Relevance of the Research

This research would enable a deeper understanding of the conditions under which household vulnerabilities in semi-arid regions are shaped. This has direct implications for their current and future ability to adapt to climate change. The uniqueness of the data helps us identify which households are vulnerable to climate change, measure the impact of climate change on household assets and production patterns, and measure adaptation responses to climate shocks. In a nutshell, this paper aims to answer questions related to vulnerability, impacts and adaptation within the context of climate change in semi-arid villages in India.

O-2222-04

# Tropical warm semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes in the projected next century

A. Rajaud (1); N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (2)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France

Two billion people today live in so-called dry lands (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. The future of those drylands is therefore challenging for many human beings. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change (e.g. Feng and Fu, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2013). However, no study focuses specifically on the evolution of strictly climatically defined semi-arid zones. These represent the frontier areas where intermediate conditions might shift either towards fully arid (desert), or less water-limited (favorable to rainforests), climate.

Climatic transformations of today's and future warm semi-arid regions raise the following two issues: 1) will these regions expand and thus widen the area where specific

water-limited development issues must be addressed?

2) How will climatic conditions evolve in today's semi-arid regions, and what does it imply for development programs?

To address these, we adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Koppen climate classification (e.g. Rubel and Kottek, Meteorol. Z., 2010). Monthly surface air temperature and precipitation are combined to identify bioclimatic regions. Geographical migration of these regions can thus be followed over time. We focus on the warm semi-arid class, characterized by a mean annual temperature exceeding 18°C and water-limitation criteria calculated from the seasonal distribution of rainfall and temperature.

A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections was selected to draw and analyze the evolution of current and future warm semi-arid regions according to 3 representative concentration pathways of increasing emissions (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The Koppen climate classification was first applied to key-periods - beginning, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries - to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then time-series for the classification were built using a 15-year running average climatology from 1901-1915 to 2086-2100, in order to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. Averages over a 15-year interval allow to buffer the large interannual variability.

According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started, following the global warming trend since the beginning of the 20th century (~1913%). Climate models are able to capture this trend albeit with a delayed increasing trend. This expansion will continue according to all projections, especially for the most severe scenarios, reaching ~19% and 51% respectively for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (multi-model mean). This will be most significant outside the actual tropical belt towards the North Pole. This paleward migration is of ~1', 7' and 10' for respectively RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5.

Two processes mainly explain this expansion: warming and drying. Drying is mostly responsible for the conversion from equatorial, subhumid climates within the tropical belt. Beyond 30° of latitude, warming is directly responsible for the conversion of cold semi-arid towards warm semi-arid climates; particularly so in RCP8.5. A third category concerns the conversion of temperate climates to warm semi-arid, outside of the tropics. In this case, both warming and drying processes are at stake, as drying effects are amplified in warmer conditions.

Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts. We therefore stress that many of the warm semi-areas that will appear in the future may need to be dealt with differently than tropical semi-arid regions in the past.

O-2222-05

# (Re)conceptualising maladaptation in policy and practice: towards an evaluative user-focused framework for semi-arid regions

E. Carabine (1); L Jones, (1); L Schipper (2)

(1) Overseas Development Institute, Climate and

Environment Programme, London, United Kingdom; (2)

Overseas Development Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute, Berkeley, United States of America

Maladaptation is a concept that has received notable policy attention in recent years, but has yet to be fully explored in both conceptual and practical terms. As a consequence it suffers from a lack of consensus around its definition and application in policy and programming. While there is general agreement that maladaptation involves action to adapt to change that increases vulnerabilities or reduces adaptive capacity, there is disagreement over what causes such action.

One of the reasons why maladaptation is such a powerful term is that it encourages practitioners and policy-makers to recognise that the decisions they take now to address climate change can backfire and inadvertently make people more vulnerable in the longer-term. However, a lack of consensus and clarity on how to characterise maladaptation currently prevents decision makers from
being able to apply the concept in practice.

In the context of semi-arid regions, the immaturity of many development challenges, the susceptibility of these areas to existing climate variability and the inherent non-linearity of these systems contribute to a higher risk of maladaptive outcomes arising from development or adaptation strategies.

We outline five areas of conceptual clarity needed in understanding and evaluating maladaptation in semi-arid regions and elsewhere.

First, deliberate non-action should, if contributing to increased climate risks and negative outcomes for people and communities, be considered as maladaptation. The semi-arid region has long been actively marginalised from the economy and politics. Over the past decades, a lack of development in these regions over long periods has contributed to high levels of vulnerability.

Second, a strategy that has not considered the impacts of climate change should constitute maladaptation. For example, many pastoralist communities have been encouraged to diversify livelihoods as a result of persistent drought. But moving away from semi-nomadic pastoralism can erode existing adaptive capacity, leading to greater vulnerability.

Third, a fundamental component of maladaptation is time. It is only with time that the success or failure of interventions will become evident. This trait is well illustrated in the context of groundwater abstraction for adaptation in semi-arid regions, which may be maladaptive in the longer term.

Fourth, semi-arid ecosystems, livelihoods and economies are not static. Moreover, under climate change, climate risks and vulnerabilities to particular climate variables are likely to shift. Semi-arid systems are characterised by non-linear and unpredictable dynamics in both their socio-economic and ecological components.

Fifth, distributional aspects of adaptation are important because climate change is likely to affect segments of the population differently, both in terms of direct impacts as well as influences on wider drivers of development, and the act of implementing (or choosing not to implement) an adaptation strategy can fail to uniformly reduce climate risks across all social groups. For example, strategies to enhance and diversify livelihoods for adaptation to climate change and variability can reinforce inequalities in terms of gender, or livelihood types.

Building on this reconceptualisation of maladaptation, we present the groundwork for a framework that can lend itself to qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation strategies, and clarify the differences between four distinct types of adaptation outcomes – ranging from optimal adaptation to maladaptation. Most importantly, we have used the framework to highlight a number of different ‘symptoms’ that can act as early warnings for maladaptive outcomes, hoping to guide policy makers in achieving early-diagnosis.

In doing so, our aim has been to make this onerous concept more tractable and applicable to planners and practitioners so as to diagnose strategies likely to lead to maladaptation. It is our hope that this work will stimulate debate and galvanise interest in advancing efforts to understand, and critically, to avoid maladaptation in semi-arid regions in the face of increasing climate risks in the coming decades.

## 2222-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2222-01

#### Innovative strategies to adapt climate change impact on traditional rain fed agriculture in semi arid regions: A case of North Kordofan in Sudan

E. Abdelgalil (1)

(1) university of Gezira, water management and irrigation institute, Wad Medani, Sudan

The purpose of this paper is to develop agricultural and water management strategies to help poor traditional rain fed farmers to adapt climate change impact on agriculture in North Kordofan region in Sudan. Historic climate data from the study area were collected and analyzed using CROPWAT model version 8.0. Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo), effective rainfall and irrigation requirements to develop different sowing dates strategies were also measured using CROPWAT model. Field visits observations and discussion with farmers also helped the author in results justifications. The study found that early sowing dates is better than late sowing in traditional rain fed sector in North Kordofan. Early sowing date secured water for almost 70 days of the crop cycle. Also under early sowing dates, soil moisture can maintain the crop at a later stage of growth. The paper investigated that drought tolerant Sesame crop replaced the millet crop for climate adaptation purposes in North Kordofan. This research study is considered the first to develop agricultural and water management strategies to cope with climate change impact on traditional rain fed agriculture in North Kordofan, Sudan. The paper highlights innovations farmers are making to adjust to the changes they observe.

### P-2222-02

#### Understanding agricultural vulnerability: An approach to identify and understand vulnerability of an agrarian based livelihood system in a watershed area

S. Divya (1); S. Badiger (2); J. Krishnaswamy (2)

(1) Atree, Livelihoods, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; (2)

Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bangalore, India

Epistemological understanding of vulnerability and its assessment methods follow two main schools of thought: (1) the 'contextual vulnerability', where vulnerability (or inversely resilience) is seen as an inherent characteristic of the system. This understanding is sociologically attribute, these confound the manner in which the system responds to external stressors; and (2) the 'outcome vulnerability', where the primary focus is on the impacts of a hazard (which is a process in itself driven by some other primary drivers). Indicator based vulnerability studies have gained increasing importance in the last decade, particularly within dominant framing of the climate change along with other structural variables. Within this methodology, indicators are used as proxies in order to quantify components contributing to vulnerability. This is done at either household or community level, or both essentially depending on its intent to identify points of interventions. The primary weakness of these methods lies in arriving at meaningful weights for the sub-components and the indicators. The assumption of direct causal linkages between indicators and vulnerability is another pertinent factor in these methodologies.

We discuss these weaknesses in the methods while applying the conventional indicator approach to an empirical case in semi-arid Karnataka. We compared the effectiveness and usability of indicators to study structural drivers of vulnerability. Household and community scale analysis was carried out in semi-arid region of Karnataka. The agrarian based livelihoods in this area is primarily dependent on ground water resources. This study also includes a version of three indicator based vulnerability assessments; Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI). These methods highlighted the main variables driving vulnerability of farming communities in this region. Results indicated that financial sub-components were the largest contributor to both household and community level vulnerability. The LVI-IPCC method indicated that exposure to climatic events was greater than the adaptive capacity and this significantly contributed to vulnerability of the community. Results from the LEI, suggests that individual households in this area will be more affected by climate change than communities.

This study demonstrated the inability of indicator-based methodologies to represent intricate ground realities, which indexes tend to over simplify. Assumptions of linear two dimensional relationships can inaccurately attribute vulnerability to a particular causal factor. Moreover these methodologies largely ignore the requirement of minimum threshold capitals that determine the functioning state of a system. Based on the results and analysis of this study we suggest a framework for developing methodologies for vulnerability assessment suitable for a particular agro
climatic zone. In this framework vulnerability is treated as a dynamic concept moderated by socio economic, socio political processes and human-environment relationships. The framework incorporates the concept of minimum threshold in the capitals, a concept widely used in "Law of Minimum", (Justus von Liebig, 1840), which propounds that there are capitals that govern the state of a system and growth is determined by the scariest resource required by the system. We suggest that there are certain key parameters particular to a specific agro climatic zone that defines the vulnerability of the system. This framework is aimed at providing a pragmatic methodology for comparison of vulnerability across regions in similar agro climatic zones. The framework attempts to map the impacts of coping and adaptive strategies on components of a socio ecological system, through analysis of drivers and enablers of vulnerability within a particular spatial scale, having explicit links to other scales. This can contribute towards developing appropriate policy intervention strategies to facilitate adaption processes for particular agro climatic zones.

P-2222-03

Studies of Long Term Changes in Climate and Environment in South-East Georgia – A Key for Sustainable Development

M. Elashvili (1) & K. Kvilidze (2) ; L. Navrozashvili (2) ; L. Sukhishvili (2)

(1) Ilia State University, School of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Tbilisi, Georgia; (2) Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Recognizing the fact that we are living in a constantly changing world became actual during the last decades, and promoted numerous studies related to environmental consequences of climate change and human impact. In this sense, study of past changes in environment and, its effect on human society coupled with better understanding of current state of the environment delivers key information to project future changes and their effect.

South-East Georgia represents natural polygon of long term changes in the environment which is used by combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. In the conversion adopted by UN in 1994 on 12th of September - A/AC.241/27, among the regions which are under the risk of desertification and drought Trans Caucasus is also mentioned. On the map developed in 1998 by natural resources and conservation service of US Department of Agriculture lori upland is situated in the area of moderate, high and very high risk. The semi-arid lori and Shirazi highlands in South-East Georgia are characterized with annual precipitation <600mm and shows climatic landscape of the former archaeological studies deliver evidences of well-developed bronze and early Iron Age settlements in the areas almost devoid of water resources today. Archaeo-Botanic studies also assume that the region was covered by forests instead of steppes.

The goal of current study is: to shed light on historic changes in the environment of the region, its natural and anthropogenic factors and consequently response of human society on these changes; to assess rate and scale of ongoing desertification process during the past decades; to project future possible changes in the environment and based on past experience elaborate adaptation and mitigation policy.

The proposed investigation is focused on identifying the source of modern changes to the environment in South-East Georgia and to discern the relationships of this environmental change to current and past actions of the human population. Long-term, sub-regional records of these changes will be constructed in terms of: 1) physical changes of vegetation; 2) changing patterns of land use/ land cover, and settlement; and 3) changing aspects of land quality in relation to agriculture.

Climate change is a serious challenge to sustainable development. Historical study of desertification, as one of the main consequences of climate change coupled with anthropogenic stress, can provide valuable materials for understanding the mechanisms of climate change. Research and understanding of these mechanisms are very important in order to come up with the solutions for sustainable development; therefore the present research (project) will ultimately contribute to developing long term mitigation and resilient strategies and policies for sustainable development of the region.

P-2222-04

Water Crises in a Semi Arid District of Hy-ryania: Trends, Concerns and Alternatives

R. Kumar (1) ; MK. Teotia (2)

(1) Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development, BRGF Project, Chandigarh, India; (2) Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRIRD), Urban Governance and Development Unit (UGDU), Chandigarh, India

Water problems in Asia today are severe—one out of five people (700 million) does not have access to safe drinking water. The stress on Asia's water resources is likely to intensify in future. According to the IPCC, by 2050, more than one billion people in Asia alone are projected to experience negative impacts on water resources as a result of climate change. In India the average per capita availability of water, estimated at 1,600 cubic meters per year, is expected to fall to around 1,000 cubic meters per year by 2050 based on current population projections. District Mahendergarh of North-western state of Haryana and selected for the study falls in semi-arid zone. Mahendergarh has serious water deficit due to absence of perennial rivers, deep water aquifers (about 40 meters in some blocks), scanty & irregular rainfall etc. The mean annual rainfall in Mahendergarh district is less than 300 mm which is also highly erratic. People receive water in much less quantity than their requirements. The agriculture, forestry and horticulture are affected badly due to unavailability of irrigation water which affects the availability of food grains, vegetables and fruits etc. The desertification is visible in the district. The poor water quality is another serious concern as ground water in many parts of the district is brackish. The paper, based on ongoing research by the authors, tries to explore trends, concerns and alternatives in water crises in District Mahendergarh, Haryana, India.

P-2222-05

Lake Chad : present situation and possible future water management

J. Llemoale (1) ; M. Géraud (2)

(1) IRD, G-AEU, Montpellier Cx5, France; (2) Université Paris 1 - Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France, Prodig, Paris, France

Lake Chad lies in an endoreic basin located in the centre of Africa, on the southern margin of the Sahara in the semi-arid Sahel belt. The lake has varied at different time scales according to changes in the rainfall over its basin. In the recent past, after a rather wet period (1950-1970), the lake size has decreased sharply with the Sahel droughts (1970-1995) with occasional drying out of the northern basin of the lake, before a partial recovery (1995-2015).

Most of the pessimistic declarations in the media about the future of Lake Chad originate from the dry 1980 situation. The present state of the lake, since the beginning of the 2000s, has been that of a moderately low water level, with large marshes and abundant natural resources (fisheries, recession cultivation and cattle breeding) for an estimated population of 2 million people living on the lake and its shores (2013), and exporting food in the surrounding region. Endogenous innovations in family agriculture have been the key for the adaptation of the local people to the lake's variability.

The lake recession in the period 1970-1990, concomitant with droughts over the lake's basin, triggered the decision of the Heads of State of the riparian countries (Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger) to study the possibility to transfer water from the Congo basin to the Chad basin in order to increase the level in Lake Chad. The project presently supported by the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) aims at transferring about 6.2 billion cubic metres per year from the Ubangir River, a tributary of the Congo River with a cost estimated at 14.5 billion US dollars.

This transfer would avoid a drying out of the northern part of the lake (about 0.6 million inhabitants) in case of drought over its basin. But it would not allow for a mitigation of the drought impact over the whole Chari basin, the main tributary to the lake, presently home to 35 to 40 million people but foreseen to reach 80 million in 2040.

The question is whether the climatic change underway may increase or not the probability of a drought over
the Lake Chad basin. The recent IPCC- AR5 report has concluded that the rainfall trends should be moderate over the Chari basin, but with a great uncertainty and no clear indication on the direction of the change. In the short term and as a first step, the ongoing and projected LCBC basin wide programmes aiming at increasing agricultural water productivity and resilience to climate change may be usefully developed and increased.

P-2222-06

## The role of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in the conservation of water and soil in the Skhour Rhamna drylands (Province of Rhamna, Morocco)

M. Mejjati Alami (1); M. Chikhaoui (1); IS. Kanga (1)

(1) IAV Hassan II, Natural Resources and Environment, Rabat, Morocco

Seasonal and annual fluctuations in rainfall, and drought, are quite common phenomena in arid lands of Morocco. In addition to anthropogenic activities, these phenomena generate soil erosion, which in turn cause desertification.

The conservation of soil and water in these environments relies on adaptive measures, which are necessary to rehabilitate and prevent soil erosion. Therefore, the choice of drought resistant species and the ones having low demands on edaphic conditions is required. In this regard, cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica), can be one of the best choices.

This work was carried out in the rural town of Skhour-Rhamna, an arid area of the province of Rhamna in southern Morocco. We aim to evaluate the effect of planting cactus on the conservation of water and soil. Therefore, we set to study the effects of cactus plantations on the physicochemical properties of soil and vegetation. We used a comparative approach holding cactus plantation in plots with different ages and planting densities and a control plot without aging cactus. Two experimental plots were selected, one with plantation of 3 years of age having a density of 5000 plants / ha, and an older one (6 years) with a planting density of 6700 plants / ha.

We collected soil samples from each plot at different depths, which then were analyzed for organic matter and particle size determination. In parallel, we measured the infiltration rate. We also assessed the vegetation parameters such as the plant cover, the species diversity and abundance.

The results showed that planting cactus has a statistically significant effect on the organic matter content and the plant cover. Plots under cactus plantations showed the best infiltration rates. So, planting cactus in arid zones could conserve soil by reducing runoff and minimizing soil loss by erosion.

P-2222-07

## Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics Relevant to Agricultural Planning in Narok County, Kenya

E. Mutuma (1); E. Micheli (2); S. Murimi (3); V. Land (2)

(1) Kenya Agricultural Research and Livestock Organization, soil and water management, NIROBI, Kenya; (2) Szent Istvan University, Soil science and agricultural chemistry, Godollo, Hungary; (3) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya

Climatic factors play an important role in determining the production of food crops in the semi-arid regions of Africa. This is a region characterized by a low and highly variable distribution of rainfall spatially and over time, which constitutes a limiting potential for crop yields. Both short and long rainy periods experience dry spells that substantially influence agriculture. There are also spells where rainfall is excessive in these regions resulting in floods and excessive erosion. Understanding of the behaviour of the wet and dry spells could improve management of the agricultural activities by farmers. The objectives of this study were to explore the characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall and to simulate stochastically the dry and wet spells using Markov models. In-depth interviews were conducted with 120 small-scale farmers to establish what constitutes agriculturally relevant rainfall characteristics for small-scale farmers. Farmers' perceptions

reflected seasonality, distribution and intensity. Half of the respondents felt there had been a change in seasonality. Ninety percent of the farmers' claimed that the amount of rain throughout the first season had decreased with 98% of the respondents having the same sentiments for the second season. A significance test that there is no change in annual rainfall over time resulted in a t-value of 1.7033. The significance level of this t-test is 0.3044; hence there was no statistically significant change in annual rainfall within the study period. The number of days of rainfall shows a significant decrease within the study period for both long and short rain seasons. The risk of suffering losses when crops that are sensitive to dry spells of up to 10 days are planted in March 1st is therefore more than 75 percent. Long dry spells at sensitive times of plant development (germination, flowering, seeding) could spell disaster for farmers. The risk of dry spells after planting have increased over the decades making farming for small-scale agriculturalists even more risky. The findings of the study suggests the need for the development of a comprehensive agricultural and climate change and variability policy that takes into account the mounting risks associated with agricultural production among small holder farmers.

P-2222-08

## The impact of Climate change to agricultural production of the coastal to reservoirs areas and creation of adaptation mechanisms

P. Normatov (1)

(1) Tajik National University, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

The food products manufacture in Tajikistan already faces many serious difficulties caused mainly prompt growth of the population, mountain topography, limitation of farmlands accessible to grain crops and livestock because of abrupt inclinations both high eminences and improper microclimates. The average mean arable land on the person makes 0.14 ha/person who at comparison with global average 0.26 ha/person is low enough.

Researches of dynamics of change of climatic parameters in three agricultural areas adjoining to the Nurek reservoir in Tajikistan have shown that the mid-annual temperature for 20 years (1968-2000) has raised 1.0-1.5 oC that has led to decrease in relative humidity on 3-6 % and to increase potential evaporation on 10-26 % in annually. For example, in the Yavan valley of the Republic of Tajikistan recommended irrigation regimes are connected with the over-expenditure of water resources. Last specifications on irrigation modes to take the Yavan valley on mean annual value of humidity (0.35) to the category of droughty areas. But as show the obtained data, for last 20 years evaporation in a valley has decreased almost on 300 mm (17 %) and the amount of precipitation has risen on 70 mm (11 %). As a result, value of humidity has risen to 0.45. Hence present irrigating norms for cultivation of cotton in the Yavan valley ~1100 m3/ha and 3000 m3/ha for a Lucerne are overestimated. Calculations show that unproductive losses of water only on two valleys make more than 60 Mln.m3.

In present paper results of researches on creation scientifically reasonable the scenario and recommendations for cultivation of crops with high value of efficiency and steady against climatic and stressful situations and also increase in efficiency of units of irrigation water and the irrigated lands are presented.

P-2222-09

## Strategies of sustainability, green building and climate change in Brazil

J. Rezende (1)

(1) Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Industrial Engineering, Natal - RN, Brazil

The project Strategies of sustainability, green building and climate change in Brazil has the following general aim: diagnose and provide the development of sustainability strategies of coexistence with the climate change in Brazil.

In Brazil, the project Strategies of sustainability and climate change in South Africa and Brazil will be operationalized in
the state of Rio Grande do Norte, in the city of Caicara do Rio do Vento (means Fisher of Wind's River). The city has a population of 3,400 inhabitants and is located in the northeastern semi-ard region. The region has an average annual rainfall of 520 mm.

Global warming has generated greater interaction of human beings difficulties with the land. The main difficulties are related to water supply, the discomfort and the difficulty of undertaking agricultural crops that provide subsistence activity to the population. Thus, sustainability strategies are needed to address global warming.

Was identified that the global warming can be handle with a strategy of sustainable construction. In this case, the sustainable construction is the starting point to create the individual's living condition in the environment that suffers with the warming. The habitat is the starting point for the individual to undertake adequate transformations and living with the weather phenomenon.

Were developed activities of sustainable construction with natives and students, trying to present and share some sustainable technologies and practices.

The application of sustainability strategies to a Sustainable Construction is characterized by the following pillars-fundamentals: 1 - Construction and sustainable energy; 2 - Waste management; 3 - Preservation of biodiversity and the ecosystem; 4 - water resources management; 5 - Education, involvement of child and youth in cultural, creatives, environmental, social, inclusive and participatory activities; 6 - Formulation and participation in public policies; 7 - Self / Empowerment / Entrepreneurship; 8 - Tourism; 9 - Agriculture; and 10 - Cultural and Historical rescue and cultural economy.

Intervention activities was also important to the culture and the development of the cultural economy (music, art, crafts, dance, festivities), also important to sustainability strategies developed in order to deal with climate warming.

The project Sustainability Strategies and Climate Change in Brazil, from the proposed methodology seeks to accomplish through action-research methodology to collect information and the creation of knowledge about sustainability strategies to deal with global warming. The project will provide the realization of sustainable buildings in the communities served, as well as the transfer of knowledge to local staff, as well as the construction of a collective knowledge of other sustainability strategies that can be developed for better association with global warming.

It stands out on the farm the adoption of a sustainable management model, a kind of sustainability philosophy was very important to rural properties. The management philosophy was based on an opening to absorb various learnings and openness to volunteering.

The importance of recycling PET bottle is the fact that the polyethylene terephthalate is a thermoplastic polymer that takes the environment about 400 years to degrade. Given the argument justifies the importance of the activity of researching the recycling and reuse of PET bottles. It's been developed strategies by the Brazilian university Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) to share and demonstration of exurial communities affected by climate warming. The social impacts of the project in the communities was documented in documents, photos and videos. The social impacts provide skills development focused on sustainability. The design of the house with PET was presented in some meetings in order to receive suggestions to improve the construction process proposed. Sustainable building experience in UFRN is also being developed.

The project presents waste management mechanisms to guide communities, municipalities, organisations and businesses regarding the type of sustainability management models to implement and explore innovative methods to improve the relationship with climate change.

P-2222-10

Are Smart Policies Really Smart? Analyzing the Implications of Smart Policies on Risk Management in India

C. Singh (1); P. Mudliar (1); A. Rahman (1)

(1) Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India

Since the new government's ascent into power in India, there has been much focus on creating 'smart' policies. Two such 'smart' discourses are smart cities in urban areas and climate smart agriculture (CSA) in rural areas, both of which focus on addressing development deficits and planning for climatic risks in India. This paper critically analyses these discourses to understand their implications on negotiating inherent socio-economic vulnerabilities and existing inequalities, and managing current and future climate risks.

Smart cities have been vigorously projected as the Prime Minister's pet project with $1.2 billion allocated for developing 100 smart cities in India. The idea of smart cities has been greeted in India with an equal measure of hype and skepticism. Although there is still no clear consensus on what a smart city means, it is generally agreed that smart cities are the key to achieve urban problems. In a country that still lacks basic housing, water, and energy infrastructure, as well as access to health and education services, there is much debate about whether smart cities will be able to address these pressing issues. Moreover, apart from a draft concept note, India lacks a national policy on smart cities. The recent budget avoided the term 'smart city', allocating funds to the Delhi-Mumbai corridor and Gujarat International Finance City (GIFC). India's first smart city, the absence of a well-defined policy, there are concerns over how the $1.2 billion will be utilized for urban development and whether it will mainstream climate risk management. It is also unclear how cities in already stressed environments such as in semi-ard regions, will evolve to negotiate development and climate risk management goals.

In rural landscapes, agriculture is constrained by various non-climatic dynamics such as deteriorating soil fertility, depleting groundwater levels, market dynamics tied in with global price fluctuations, and migration towards urban centres. Increasing climatic variability and projected climate change, especially in resource-constrained areas such as semi-ard regions in India, are expected to interact with existing vulnerabilities, exacerbating them and potentially making agriculture an unsustainable livelihood. To address this growing concern, climate smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as a way to mainstream a suite of mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help make agriculture and agricultural livelihoods more resilient to climatic changes. In 2011, the Government of India set up the National Institute for Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) with a budgetary allocation of $64.81 million. With a core mandate of long-term strategic research on the impacts of projected climate change on Indian agriculture and demonstration of existing best practices to help farmers cope with current climate variability, NICRA is a crucial actor in India's CSA discourse.

In light of these developments, this paper traces the evolution of the smart policy discourse in India by examining the evolution of smart cities in urban areas and CSA in rural areas as well as the key actors and organisations shaping these discourses. By doing so we contribute to the larger smart city discourse that has begun to shun the term 'smart city' and questions whether it has become a term that has reached the end of its usefulness. We also argue that while CSA forefronts vulnerability to climate change, it potentially obscures larger development issues and inherent vulnerabilities. There is also the danger of old wine in a new bottle where existing agroecological techniques that have been practised by farmers traditionally, are being repackaged to make their livelihoods 'smart'. While the investment such a discursive shift attracts is useful, we argue that it is important to understand how such policy trajectories create winners and losers.

In conclusion, while the term smart invokes a variety of desirable visions of a utopia where technology is used to operate infrastructure achieving efficiency and sustainability, we argue that it is important to question whether 'smart' policies truly makes rural and urban living and livelihoods more resilient to current and future climatic risks.

P-2222-11

Investigating climate trends and impacts in semi-ard regions of Africa and South Asia: implications for climate change adaptation and development
M. Zarouq (1); J. Daron (2); A. Bazaz, (3)
(1) ACDI/ CSAG at University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; (2) UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) (Indian Institute for Human Settlements), Bangalore, India

Semi-arid regions, such as the African Sahel, are typically located in the boundary between extremely dry (e.g. arid) and much wetter (e.g. humid subtropical) climate zones. The semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia are subject to high year-to-year rainfall variability and people living in these regions are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate variability and climate change; the success of the seasonal rains can be critical to people's survival and their livelihoods. As the Earth warms, trends towards harsher or more productive climatic conditions will therefore have significant consequences for how people in semi-arid regions live with the environment and sustain their livelihoods.

The Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR) project is one of four projects being funded through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIA). We will present the latest evidence and understanding of climate-related variability and trends, in the semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia, gathered by scientists working in the Climate and Biophysical Impact (CBI) team of ASSAR. In general, the weight of evidence sugests to ASSAR is largely adverse effects on natural systems supporting people's livelihoods in semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia. Temperatures in these regions are rising at above global average rates and in some locations this is leading to measurable impacts on human and natural systems. However, significant year-to-year and longer-term variability in rainfall patterns means that any attribution of rainfall trends to global climate change is complicated. Also, future projections show large disagreements in the direction of rainfall changes and climate models are subject to large uncertainties that complicate any interpretation of climate messages. Ultimately the impacts of climate change on human and biophysical systems will manifest themselves through the combined effect of changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity and other climate-related variables. Moreover, it is only by understanding specific system sensitivities and adaptive capacities that useful information can be derived to support adaptation research and practice. Examples of how climate variability and change is impacting socio-ecological systems in semi-arid regions of Africa and south Asia will be provided.

The CBI team is made up of climate scientists, crop modellers, hydrologists, ecologists and social scientists. In the first year of the project the team developed a series of "Regional Climate Messages" documents that were produced for the four regions under investigation, namely Southern Africa, East Africa, West Africa and India. The documents provide information about historical and future climate aimed at informing policymakers, practitioners and researchers working in these regions - key results will be shared. In addition, the team is continuing to work alongside colleagues in the ASSAR project to provide tailored information that can directly feed into the wider ASSAR project research aims to both generate transferable knowledge related to issues of adaptation across multiple scales of governance and to develop transformative scenarios that influence adaptation and development planning in the focus regions.

P-2222-12

Analysis of Desertification Process and Impact of Climate Change by using Satellite data in the Algerian Steppe

A. Zegar (1)
(1) Centre of Spaces Techniques, Observing the earth, Arzew, , Algeria

The degradation of natural resources in arid and semi-arid areas was highlighted dramatically during this century due to population growth and transformation of land use systems. The Algerian steppe has undergone a regression over the past decade due to drought cycle, the extension of areas cultivated in marginal lands, population growth and overgrazing. These phenomena have led to different degradation processes, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil erosion, and deterioration of the physical environment. In this study, the work is mainly based on the criteria for classification and identification of physical parameters for spatial analysis and multi-sources to determine the vulnerability of major steppe formations and their impact on desertification. To do this, we used satellite images Alsat-1 (2009) (IRS 2009) and LANDSAT 2009 (2009). The research objective is to provide information could reduce the impact of climate change in the semi arid ecological diversity of steppe formations. This longitudinal study based on the use of remote sensing data is to analyze the evolution of steppe ecosystems. The application, through specific processes, including the supervised classification was used to characterize the main steppe formations. An analysis of the vulnerability of plant communities was conducted to assign weights and identify areas most susceptible to desertification. Vegetation indices are used to characterize the forest and steppe formations to determine changes in land use.

This study will map the different components of the steppe, highlighting the magnitude of the degradation pathways, which affects the steppe environment, allowing an analysis of the process of desertification in the region.

P-2222-13

Crop supplemental irrigation experiences in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (1); D. Abdoulaye, (2); B. Barbier (3); D. Thomas, (4)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Laboratoire d'hydraulologie et des ressources en eau, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) CIRAD, Umr geau, Dakar, Senegal; (4) Université de Liège, Department of rural economic and development, Gembloux, Belgium

This study assesses the impact of supplemental irrigation from small man-made basins on cereal production in climate variability and change context marked by dry spells in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso. After two years, the experiments showed that this innovation in family farms increases maize yield and allows growing a second crop with the surplus of water available in the basin. At the end of the 2012-2013 campaign, the average maize yield was estimated 2.5t/ha on experimental plots (EP) and 1.7t/ha on control plots (CP). The average yield of the 2013-2014 campaign was evaluated as 3.3t/ha and 0.9t/ha for EP and CP respectively. Increase in yield is 0.8t/ha for the 2012-2013 campaign and 2.4t/ha during 2013-2014. It appears as well as the yield obtained on EP in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 for bridging cereal need of 2 and 6 additional persons respectively in agricultural households compared to the CP. The review of the Net present value, internal rate of return and the Net benefits increase ratio show that the profitability to practice supplemental irrigation depends on the types of basins.

2223 - Modeling Our Agricultural Future

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2223-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Transdisciplinarity and Multi-scale Agricultural Projections of Climate Change Impacts

C. Rosenzweig (1)
(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector.
Currently, AgMIP has over 700 participants from more than 45 countries contributing their expertise to over 30 projects and activities. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.

Since 2010, AgMIP has engaged stakeholders and researchers to assess impacts on food security and plan for a more resilient future. AgMIP has built a cutting-edge assessment framework on both global and regional scales, which links climate, crops, livestock, and economics to help decision-makers better understand how climate change will reverberate through complex agricultural systems and markets.

AgMIP initiatives include regional integrated assessments, global economic assessments and global crop modeling activities, data and tools to facilitate multi-model and multi-discipline assessments, and cross-cutting themes to help interpret agricultural model results for decision-making. Results from these initiatives contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, provide important context for national and regional stakeholders interpreting climate change risks, further states-of-the-art global food security assessments and agricultural models, and deliver key inputs, such as commodity prices, into regional integrated assessments.

AgMIP is now planning a coordinated global and regional assessment of future food security under changing climate.

K-2223-02

## Projecting grassland sensitivity to climate change from an ensemble of models

JF. Soussana (1); F. Ehrhardt (1); R. Conant (2); M. Harrison (3); M. Lieffinger (4); G. Bellocci (5); A. Moore (6); S. Rolinski (7); V. Snow (8); L. Wu (9); A. Ruane (10)

(1) Inra, Paris, France; (2) NREL, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America; (3) Tasmanian institute of Agriculture, Burnie, Australia; (4) AgResearch Grasslands, Palmerston North, New Zealand; (5) Inra, Grassland ecosystem research, Clermont-Ferrand, France;

(6) CSIRO, Canberra, Australia; (7) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (8) AgResearch, Christchurch, New Zealand; (9) Rothamsted Research, Rothamsted, United Kingdom; (10) N. Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America

The grassland biome covers about one-quarter of the earth's land area and contributes to the livelihoods of ca. 800 million people. Increased aridity and persistent droughts are projected in the twenty-first century for most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia and South East Asia. A number of these regions have a large fraction of their land use covered by grasslands and rangelands. Grasslands are the ecosystems that respond most rapidly to precipitation variability. However, global projections of climate change impacts on grasslands are still lacking in the scientific literature. Within AgMIP, based on the C3MP protocol initially developed for crops, we have explored the sensitivity of temperature grasslands to climate change drivers with an ensemble of models. Site calibrated models are used to provide projections under probabilistic climate change scenarios, which are defined by a combination of air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 changes resulting in 99 runs for each model time site combination. This design provides a test of grassland production, GHG (N2O and CH4) emissions and soil carbon sensitivity to climate change drivers. This integrated approach has been tested for 12 grassland simulation models applied to 19 sites over three continents. We show here that a single polynomial emulator can be fitted with high significance to the results of all models and sites, when these are expressed as relative changes from the optimal combination of climate drivers. This polynomial emulator shows that elevated atmospheric CO2 expands the thermal and hydric range which allows for the development of temperature grasslands. Moreover, we calculate the climatic response surface of GHG emissions per unit grassland production and we show that this surface varies with elevated CO2. From these results we provide first estimates of the impacts of climate change on temperature grasslands based on a range of climate scenarios.

K-2223-03

## Impacts and implications of global and regional climate change for agriculture

C. Müller (1); J. Elliott (2)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, United States of America

Agriculture faces severe challenges from increasing demand for agricultural food and non-food products, the need to decrease its environmental burden and to build resilience against climate change impacts. While impacts and adaptation measures need to be assessed and understood at local scales, much of their cross-interaction and societal implications can only be understood at national and regional scales. Global scale analyses. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison (ISI-MIP) have conducted comprehensive global-scale assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and related sectors (e.g. water, markets) that allows for understanding the scope of the climate challenge for agriculture and food security, including an assessment of associated uncertainties. Climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios has the potential to reduce global crop production of the 4 major crops by 24 to 43%, which may be amended by positive effects of carbon dioxide fertilization to losses of 8 to 24%. Climate-driven reductions in availability of irrigation water could lead to a loss of 20-60Mha of irrigated cropland. Associated adaptation responses in land-use patterns, trade and consumption are able to compensate for climate-driven impacts, leading to higher food prices (20% on average). Challenges that need to be addressed at the global scale are the increasing disparity between high- and low productivity countries, which often reflects the disparity in development. Also, increasingly variability under climate change is a robust finding across the board of scenarios and will require adequate measures to avoid devastating effects, especially for the poor.

O-2223-01

## FACCE MACSUR: Modelling Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security

M. Köchy (1); M. Banse (1); R. Tiffin (2); F. Ewert (3); N. Scollan (4); F. Brouwer (5); R. Rötter (6); A. Bannink (7); F. Sinabell (8)

(1) Thünen Institute, Market analysis, Braunschweig, Germany; (2) University of Reading, Centre for food security, school of agriculture, policy and development, Reading, United Kingdom; (3) University of Bonn, Institute of crop science and resource conservation, Bonn, Germany; (4) Aberystwyth University, Institute of biological, environmental and rural sciences, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom; (5) Wageningen UR, LEI, The Hague, Netherlands; (6) Luke, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Mikkeli, Finland; (7) Wageningen UR, Animal sciences group, Wageningen, Netherlands; (8) WIFO - Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Vienna, Austria

FACCE MACSUR (http://macsur.eu) is a network of currently 270 scientists from 18 European and associated countries for improving the European capacity of modelling the effects of climate change and socio-economic changes on agriculture. This concerns crop and grassland production, livestock production, farm management related to adaptation and mitigation measures, and development of price relations on national to global markets. The emphasis is on the linking of models and data across scientific disciplines. We will present an overview of achievements in the network. Collaborative efforts in the network include the advancement of modelling methodologies, agreement on common modelling scenarios for joint evaluation, comparison of model performance, development of new research projects, organization of training courses and workshops, and interactions with decision-makers, farmers, and other stakeholders. MACSUR collaborates internationally with AgMIP and MACSUR members are engaged in many other international projects and networks.

In the field of crop modelling, MACSUR has set-up and performed a comprehensive, unique model comparison study on simulating crop rotations using long term trial
data from various locations in Europe and looking at
various output variables; also an inventory has been made
on the available crop models and modelled cropping
systems for Europe by the MACSUR CropM partners.
MACSUR developed extensive databases on important
ongoing and future modelling studies in Europe and it
also embarked on developing a centralized system for
data storage, distribution and visualization of model
results. The knowledge hub systematically analysed
scaling methods with focus of scaling up weather and
soil information for regional and (supra-) national climate
change (CC) impact assessments and related uncertainties
for a range of crop models. A large ensemble of 26 crop
models has been used for a systematic climate sensitivity
analysis based on impact response surface. New CC
scenario data was developed for selected locations and
regional case studies in Europe and use was made of
agroclimatic indicator approaches to indicate shifts in
multiple risks to wheat production in the EU, Five PhD
courses have been organized, dealing with various issues
of generating data and applying modelling techniques for
assessing CC impacts and adaptations to CC.

In the field of modelling of permanent grasslands,
livestock and farms, the main focus across these diverse
disciplines was to bring together specialists on a common
subject. MACSUR established a performance comparison
between several prominent models. Modelling of livestock
productivity focused on the impacts of changing climatic
conditions on dairy cow health, mortality and milk quantity
and quality, and provided contributions to regional case
study research. Datasets were identified relating to animal
health and disease, and gaps in knowledge were explored
at a broad level.

In socio-economic modelling, MACSUR focused on the
soft-linking of crop production models to economic
models at national and global levels and on comparisons
of projections of crop price changes considering global
trends in populations, politics, and climate.

Regional case studies constitute opportunities for linking
models with less spatial heterogeneity and a longer
duration of model linkage across scientific disciplines.
They also allow studying practical effects of the impacts
of climate change and discussing them with stakeholders.
Our case studies in Finland, Austria, and Italy suggest that
a simple climate envelope approach (moving production
zones of crops northward) neglects important interactions
with soils (water holding capacity) and effects on landscape
function/ecosystem services and rural livelihoods.

In the next two years, MACSUR will improve modelling
the impacts of weather extremes and consider variations
in farm management, cross- and multi-scale issues
uncertainty and error propagation. Exploration of
techniques to improve the characterisation (e.g. quality) of
feed sources in farm-scale models will also be addressed.
Understanding the reasons for the difference between
optimal and realised grassland and crop yields and finding
solutions for linking these economic models at national
and global scales remains a challenge for the next years.
Furthermore, we will include more regional case studies
and intensify our interactions with stakeholders.

O-2223-02

How accurately do crop models simulate
the impact of CO2 atmospheric concentra-
tion on maize yield and water use ?

JL Durand (1); K Deluca (2); K Boote (3); J. Lizaso (4);
R Manderscheid (5); C Rosenzweig (6); J Jones (3); H.
Weigel (5); A. Ruane (6)

(1) INRA, Environnement et Agronomie, Lusignan, France; (2)
INRA, Lusignan, France; (3) University of Florida, Gainesville,
United States of America; (4) ETSIA UPM, Madrid, Spain;
(5) Johann Heinrich von Thunen Institute, Braunschweig,
Germany; (6) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New
York city, United States of America

Authors (continued): S. Anapalli (6); L. Ahuja (7); B. Basso (7)
C. Baron (8); P. Bertuzzi (9); D. Ripoche (9); C. Biernath (10)
E. Priesak (10); D. Derynge (11); F. Ewert (12); T. Xaiser (12)
S. Gayler (12); F. Heilein (12); KC Kerschebaum (13)
SH. Kim (14); C. Müller (15); C. Nendel (16); J. Ramirez (17)
F. Tao (18); D. Timlin (19); K. Waha (20); T. Twine (21)
E. Wang (22); H. Webber (23); Z. Zhao (4); R. Rötter (25)
A. Srivastava (23); S. Seidel (26).

6 USDA-ARS, Colorado State University, Colorado,
USA, 7 Department of Geological Sciences, Michigan
State University, Michigan, USA, 8 CIRAD, UMR TETIS,
Montpellier, France, 9 INRA, Avignon, France, 10 Institut
für Bodenökologie, Helmholtz Zentrum München,
Neuherrberg, Germany, 11 Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change research and School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 12 Water &
Earth System Science (WESS) Competence Cluster, c/o
University of Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany, 13 Institute
of Landscape Systems Analysis, ZALF, Leibniz-Centre for
Agricultural Landscape Research, Mueneberg, Germany,
14 School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University
of Washington, Seattle, USA, 15 Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, 16 Institute
of Landscape Systems Analysis, ZALF, Leibniz-Centre for
Agricultural Landscape Research, Mueneberg, Germany,
17 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,
edwards, UK, 18 University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, 19
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT),
Cali, Colombia, 18 Institute of Geographical Sciences
and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing, China, 19 Crop Systems and Global
Change Laboratory, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, USA, 20 Indian
Agricultural Research Institute, Centre for Environment
Science, India, 21 Department of Agriculture, New Delhi,
India, 21 Department of Soil Water, & Climate, University
of Minnesota, Minnesota, USA, 22 CSIRO, Land and
Water, Black Mountain, Australia, 23 Institute of Crop
Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn,
Bonn, Germany, 24 China Agricultural University, Beijing,
China, 25 Natural Resources Institute, Luke, Finland, 26
Technische Universität Dresden, Germany.

Methods and Results

Given the uncertainties on the climate change impacts on
C4 crops, projections of regional maize production remain
speculative. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric
CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on crop yield and resources
uses using mechanistic models becomes increasingly
important. Free Air [CO2] Enrichment (FACE) studies offer
data to test and improve model quality. The objective of
this work by the AgMIP Maize group is (i) to test multiple
maize models for [CO2] responses against data gathered
from a FACE study under two water regimes carried out in
Germany during 2007 and 2008, and (ii) to pave the way
to potential model modifications so as to improve their
simulations of crop responses to [CO2]. The Experiment
combined two [CO2] levels with two watering regimes.
Yield, leaf area, soil water content and [CO2] levels were
recorded both years, 2008 only exhibiting significant
water deficit. After a preliminary calibration based on
non limiting water conditions and under ambient [CO2]
treatments of both years, a blind simulation was undertaken
for the other treatments: High [CO2] (550 ppm) 2007 and
2008, both watering regimes, and DRY AMBIENT 2007
and 2008. Secondly, with full growth and yield data along
with soil moisture data of all treatments, improvements of
simulation results were attempted. Changes made to the
models have been documented and submitted for further
analysis. The results revealed: minimal [CO2] impacts
with low variations among «uncalibrated » models except
for the dry season of 2008 where the observed drought
impact simulated by the majority of models; most
models caught but underestimated the CO2 impact on
crop water status, leaf area, grain number and yield;
the CO2 effect on transpiration was generally properly
simulated, transpiration per leaf area decreasing but green
leaf area duration increasing at 550 ppm [CO2]. As more
data from FACE experiments become available, it will be
highly desirable to replicate this exercise in order to come
up with more robust conclusions on these responses and
to improve model response to CO2.

2223 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2223-01

Bayesian Inference for the Ricardian Model

B. Abidoye (1)

(1) University of Pretoria, Centre for Environmental
Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEMA). Agricultural
Economics, Hatfield, Pretoria, France

The Ricardian model is one of the most widely used
models to analyze the impact of climate change on
agriculture. This paper seeks to empirically extend the
In the coming decades, agriculture is projected to experience both demand and supply shocks originating from climate change, growing food needs or increasing demand for bioenergy. This specific context prompts a need for numerical assessments to anticipate the economic and environmental consequences of possible futures. Studies, however, disagree in the extent and direction of the impact of shocks on agriculture. If some progress has been made to reduce the overall variability across models (Nelson et al., 2014), the nature of some discrepancies remains unclear.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is important to assess vulnerability of an economy to climate change and feeds into planning decisions. Current and future impacts on agriculture, magnitude of the impact and distribution of the impact are important questions that need to be answered for effective planning and policy. Traditional models of crop agriculture such as crop-growth simulation models, agronomic economic models and integrated assessment models are based mainly on climate-crop physiology and development models' parameters that are generated from experimental research. They are typically calibrated into field situations using daily crop development responses to a combination of climate and weather variables and input factors such as soil, water and fertilizer. These models can handle some adaptation and crop management responses through variety selection, incorporating fertilizer use as an adaptation response or changing planting dates. While these adaptation measures can be interesting, they do not adequately capture farmer behavior in reality. We are more interested in models that incorporates farmer's responses to economic factors such as prices (substitution of inputs based on prices) and the ability of farmers to switch crops and plant multiple crops based on responses to climate.

The contribution of this paper is in presenting the Ricardian Model in a Bayesian framework, that relaxes the assumption of linear relationship between climate and agricultural performance through the use of semi-parametric approach and also characterizes model uncertainty in the choice of variables to be included in the model by integrating the variable selection process into the Ricardian model estimation that reflects the uncertainty surrounding the "correct" specification which becomes valuable for predicting the impact of climate change on agriculture. Specifically, we will describe a Bayesian posterior simulator that combines the literature on semi-parametric approach and also characterizes selection and data augmentation. Our underlying model-eling framework is the same as the Ricardian model. However, the Gibbs sampler algorithm builds upon the simulator in Koop and Poirier (2004) and incorporates the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) method described in George and McCulloch (1993) to determine the posterior probability that climate and soil characteristics have an influence on agricultural productivity. As in Abidoye and Hernández (2013), we will argue that the model incorporating SSSVs presents a form of Bayesian model averaging integrating competing models into a single structure that can be more valuable in predicting the impact of climate change under different climate scenarios. The model is applied using data from a survey of over 9000 farmers administered as part of a Global Environment Facility (GEF) project in 11 African countries in 2003.

### P-2223-02

## Exhibiting model elasticities to facilitate model intercomparison: an example with a simple land-use model

T. Brunelle (1)

(1) CIREG, Nogent-sur-Marne, France

In the coming decades, agriculture is projected to experience both demand and supply shocks originating from climate change, growing food needs or increasing demand for bioenergy. This specific context prompts a need for numerical assessments to anticipate the economic and environmental consequences of possible futures. Studies, however, disagree in the extent and direction of the impact of shocks on agriculture. If some progress has been made to reduce the overall variability across models (Nelson et al., 2014), the nature of some discrepancies remains unclear.

To get at the root of these discrepancies, this study applies a simple methodology to explicit the yield, area and demand responses to price. These parameters picture the core mechanisms of models and are critical in estimating the impact of shocks on agriculture (Hertel, 2009).

We present here the results of this methodology for the NLU model (Souty et al. 2012). NLU is a partial equilibrium that simulates changes in agricultural intensification at the global level under various assumptions regarding biomass demand. In this model, yield and area elasticities are not parameterized, but are derived from a cost minimization program taking into account spatial biophysical constraints. We focus here on the supply side as the demand for biomass products is exogenous in our model and thus inelastic to price.

First, changes in yields and areas are computed in response to a 1% p.y. exogenous price shock to 2050. To facilitate the comparison with available econometric estimates, we undertake a similar analysis in the past. Elasticities are then calculated according to a range of food prices relative to those of inputs (land and fertilizer). We show that these functions sum up the core model dynamics and can facilitate the model diagnostic. Finally, we show how our results can be used for the assessment of a biofuel promotion policy.

### P-2223-03

## Projected global crop yield variability under ENSO and the NAO

K. Childers (1); K. Frieler, (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Future food supplies under a changing climate hinge on our ability to understand and adapt to changing precipitation and temperature patterns, which fuel global agriculture supplies. Projections suggest that potential yields of many crops will decrease as temperatures rise, few studies, however, have addressed the predictability of the spatial and temporal variations over interannual to decadal timescales. In many regions the climate over such periods can be described in terms of large-scale climate indices such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. These climate teleconnections result in semi-periodic global patterns of precipitation and temperature, which can alter growing season conditions over large geographical areas and have been shown to directly impact the regional and national yields of several crops. By analyzing the frequency and duration of such patterns in global climate model projections and the effects of each phase on potential agriculture yield, it may be possible to better project global yield variability. Here we present such an analysis of the global yield patterns of three major cereal crops (maize, rice and wheat) and soy on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree grid generated within ISI-MIP. Potential crop yields are simulated using climate projections for four RCPS from HadGEM2-ES. The combined crop model ensemble indicates regional yield averages differ from neutral years by up to 10% during opposing phases of ENSO and the NAO. Furthermore, average ENSO phase responses are not perfectly symmetric and are linked to yield decreases for some regions under both warm and cool phases. In general, the major cereal crops show a strongest ensemble response to ENSO, particularly in the northern U.S. and Europe. The effects of NAO phase are significant over a smaller geographical area than ENSO, but with similar or slightly higher magnitudes. The spatial patterns associated with each phase are further supported in many highly agricultural productive regions by significant time series correlations between annual yield and NAO or ENSO indices. By linking agriculture yields to climate teleconnection indices we increase the predictability of decadal yields. In addition the association may be extended to impacts from other sectors, allowing for projections of exposure to coincident regional effects.

### P-2223-04

## Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index in Korean Peninsular Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5

U. Chung (1); JP. Cho, (1); MC. Seo, (2); WS. Jung, (3)

(1) APEC Climate Center, Climate Change Research, Busan,
Republic of Korea; (2) National Institute of Crop Science, Crop production and physiology research division, Jeonju, Republic of Korea; (3) Konkuk University, Department of applied bioscience, life & environmental sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea

The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the basis of agricultural production; it is a key indicator of agricultural productivity, providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the distribution of agricultural climate resources varies depending on the climate change, and the agro-climate index can always be changed because the index is not an absolute. Recently, many studies which are related the uncertainty of future climate change have been being actively conducted with multiple ensemble approach by developing and improving dynamic downscaling of climate information as well as statistical downscaling. RCP (representative concentration pathways) future scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) have been used in many recent studies. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as plant and crop period based on each base temperature, growing degree day, frost free day, and heating and cooling degree day were calculated for assessment of the indices' temporal and spatial variations and uncertainties of the indices on climate change: the downscaled historical climate (1976-2005) and RCP future climate scenarios of AR5 (2011-2040) were applied to the calculation of the index. Additionally in the study, the assessments of the agro-climatic index and multi-model ensemble were considered for the practicability of the agricultural digital climate map of RDA (rural development administration).

The result showed each average of six agro-climatic indices of nine individual global climate models, as well as multi-model ensembles agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that multi-model ensembles, as well as each individual global climate model emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Yeungsan and Seumjin). The six agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were estimated to increase in nine individual global climate models and multi-model ensembles in future climate scenarios. However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual global climate models showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of four Rivers. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required; however, the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual global climate models in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work. For example, if we assume that the temperature of winter will decrease in some areas of Nakdong, Yeungsan and Seumjin Rivers since frost free day has been estimated to increase in those regions in future climate projections, the assessment of frost free day of the regions will be able to take advantage of the assessment of the increasing abundance of agro-productivity of the winter crop or agricultural cropping system, e.g., double cropping system) by analyzing agro-climatic abnormal index (e.g., frequency of frost).

P-2223-05

## Coffeea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications

A. Craparo (1) ; P. Van Asten (2) ; P. Läderach (3) ; L. Jassoghe (2) ; S. Grab (1)

(1) University of Witwatersrand, Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Systems agronomy, Kampala, Uganda; (3) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam

Coffee is the world's most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffee arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide

coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands, we demonstrate for the first time that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature is the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing C. arabica yields between 1961-2012. Projecting this forward, every 1°C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 KgHa-1 (P= 1.80e-10). According to our ARIMA model, average coffee production will drop to 145 ± 41 KgHa-1 (P=8.45e-09) by 2060. Consequently without adequate adaptation strategies and/or substantial external inputs, coffee production will be severely reduced in the Tanzanian highlands in the near future. Attention should also be drawn to the arabica growing regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya, as sustained time series evidence shows these areas have followed strikingly similar minimum temperature trends. This is the first study on coffee, globally, providing essential time series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact on C. arabica yields.

P-2223-06

## Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

D. Derying (1) ; D. Conway (2) ; N. Ramankutty (3) ; J. Price (1) ; R. Warren (7)

(1) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment, London school of economics and political sciences, London, United Kingdom; (3) LIU Institute for Global Issues and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; (4) Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, Advanced research fellow at the tyndall centre, Norwich, United Kingdom

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY) = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA, reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show many disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

P-2223-07

## Rising CO2 emissions benefit global crop water productivity

D. Derying (1) ; J. Elliott (2) ; A. Ruane (3) ; C. Folberth (4) ; C. Müller (5) ; TAM. Pugh (6) ; E. Schmid (7) ; K. Boote (8) ; D. Conway (9) ; D. Gerten (5) ; J. Jones (8) ; N. Khabarov (10) ; S. Olin (11) ; S. Schapoff (5) ; H. Yang (12) ; C. Rosenzweig (13)

(1) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America; (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (4) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems services and management program, Laxemburg, Austria;
(5) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (6) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (7) University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Boku, Vienna, Austria; (8) University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America; (9) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment, London school of economics and political sciences, London, United Kingdom; (10) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems services, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (11) Lund University, Lund, Sweden; (12) Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), Dübendorf, Switzerland; (13) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America

Climate change threatens global water and food security, especially in arid regions where water availability is already limited by a range of factors of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are expected to raise rates of crop photosynthesis whilst also increasing the ratio of crop yield to water use, or crop water productivity (CWP). The potentially large positive effects of rising CO2 on CWP will have major implications for increasing crop yields and reducing pressure on freshwater resources. However, to date there has been no systematic evaluation of global crop model simulation of CWP response to CO2 and climate change, and estimates of carbon fertilisation effects on crops based on observations continue to be controversial.

Our study addresses these gaps; by providing the first comprehensive global scale assessment of the combined effects of climate change and CO2 on global CWP using a large multi-model ensemble (originating from the Agricultural Modelling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), and by directly comparing model results with observations. Our modelling results suggest combined effects of climate change and CO2 are substantial, leading to increase in CWP by up to 13-27% globally (ensemble median, with a range of different crop types) by the 2080s relative to the 1980s. The range increases to 17-35% in water scarce arid regions. This suggests significant alleviation of negative effects of climate change on crop yield and pressure on water use in these regions. Yet, the spread of CWP results doubles when considering climate and CO2 effects, reflecting uncertainty in modelling methodology and assumptions about CO2 response, which are large due to the lack of experimental observations globally. We show the spatial distribution in the impacts on four major crops critical for global food security: maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Our results indicate CO2 fertilisation effects play a key role in managing agriculture, water management and water resource management and emphasise the importance of extending experimental observation, especially in arid and semi-arid regions.

Our study addresses global scale modelling of an important dimension of agricultural production that is intimately connected with water resources. The effects of CO2 are shown to be large, key uncertainties are highlighted and needs for modelling and empirical research identified. These results demonstrate the need to diagnose further reasons for differences between crop model simulations of CWP and promote wider incorporation of CO2 effects in global food and water resource assessments.

P-2223-08

## Options for a sustainable food future and agricultural sector greenhouse gases mitigation

P. Dumas (1); T. Searchinger (2); S. Manceron (3); C. Le Mouel (4)

(1) CIRAD, Cited, Paris, France; (2) WRI, Washington, DC, United States of America; (3) INRA, Depe, Paris, France; (4) INRA, Smart, Rennes, France

By 2050, the agricultural sector should produce food to feed an increased and wealthier population, while reducing environmental impacts. In particular, conversion of natural ecosystems and greenhouse gas emissions are serious potential impacts of agricultural production.

To take up this challenge, many options exist for the agricultural sector. Some are on the supply side, such as increasing the efficiency of livestock production, increasing the efficiency in crop production inputs, or a sustainable increase in water use, and are the demand side, such as changes in diets, reduction of losses and wastes

or, more controversially, reduction in population increase. The overall consequences of those options on land-use and greenhouse gas emissions, especially when taken together, are not easy to assess in a transparent and consistent way.

To tackle this challenge, a simple balance model with detailed biophysical modules is developed to assess the consequence in terms of greenhouse gases emissions reductions of various options for the agricultural sector, under the constraint of feeding the world.

The reference year balances are based on FAOSTAT food commodity balances. Demand is set exogenously based on population and diets, trade is based on import dependence and export market shares, and loss coefficients are used. Transformation through livestock sectors and oil crops crushing allows to determine production, and with exogenously set yields, land-use. In the reference case, yields and demands evolutions are based on FAO projections. Detailed modules of livestock, aquaculture, land-use change emissions, nitrogen cycle and rice methane emissions allow to determine transformation and emission coefficients, as well as the consequences of diverse options. The model integrates those informations at the global scale on several regions, allowing to assess in a transparent way the consequences of the options used together.

The methodology and the model results will be presented for change in livestock efficiency, rice methane emissions mitigation options, changes in diets and increases in nitrogen use efficiency.

P-2223-09

## Detecting the early stages of Phaeosphaeria leaf spot infestations in maize hybrid lines under different climate change scenarios using in situ hyperspectral data

A. Elhadi (1); H. Deng (2); J. Odini (3); E. Abdel-Rahman (3); O. Mutanga (3)

(1) University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) Intuit Mountain View, Data mining, CA, United States of America; (3) University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of agriculture, earth and environmental sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Phaeosphaeria leaf spot (PLS) is considered as one of the major diseases that threat the stability of maize production in tropical and subtropical African regions. PLS is a foliar disease in maize caused by the ascomycete fungus Phaeosphaeria maydis (Henn.), and has spread widely in areas of high rainfall and moderate temperatures. PLS can result in a considerable reduction in photosynthetic leaf area as the spots coalesce - cause premature leaf drying thus reduce plant cycle and sharp decrease in grain size and weight and result in early plant death. The objective of the present study was to investigate the use of hyperspectral data in detecting the early stage of PLS in tropical maize. Maize ground-based hyperspectral data were collected at the field level from healthy and early stage of PLS over two years (2013 and 2014) using a handheld spectroradiometer. Leave-one-out analysis for full chemical analysis were collected form the healthy leaves and early stage of PLS to test the impact of PLS on the maize plant properties. An integration of a new developed guided regularized random forest (GRF) and traditional random forest (RF) was used for feature selection and classification respectively. The 2013 dataset was used to train the model, while the 2014 dataset was used as independent test dataset.

Results show that there were statistically significant different in biochemical between the healthy leaves and early stage of PLS within certain biochemical variables such as nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium and magnesium. The new developed GRF was able to reduce the high dimensionality of hyperspectral data by selecting key wavelengths with less autocorrelation. These wavelengths are allocated at 420 nm, 795 nm, 779, 1543 nm, 1747 nm and 1010 nm. Using these variable (n = 6), random forest classifier was able to discriminate between the healthy maize and early stage of PLS with overall accuracy of 88% and kappa value of 0.75. This study demonstrates the potential of hyperspectral data in detecting the early stage of PLS in tropical maize. The study offers insight to the potential of large-scale mapping and monitoring of the
The percentage of days with heat stress events increased from the base to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. This increase was most evident for rice in suitable areas of Central Asia, South Asia and Central North America where a high prevalence was predicted. On the other hand, wheat had a less pronounced change in the frequency of stress in RCP8.5.

Mainly tropical agriculture will suffer from climate change. Our results indicate that global food supply may also be affected by heat stress in temperate and subtropical regions. Without mitigation measures to combat climate change or the implementation of local adaptive technologies, countries with extensive agricultural landsin continental regions at high latitudes may experience significant crop losses.

* This work was supported by the 2015 R&D Project of the Korea Meteorological Administration "Development and application of technology for weather forecast".

P-2223-13

## The impact of high temperature on land values in Europe

E. Massetti (1); PS. Van (2) ; R. Mendelsohn, (3)

(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America; (2) Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium; (3) Yale University, School of forestry and environmental studies, New Haven, United States of America

In Ricardian studies the relationship between climate and land values is conventionally assumed to be nonlinear. This nonlinearity has traditionally been captured using a quadratic model of temperature and precipitation (Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw 1994; Schlenker, Hanemann, and Fisher 2005; Massetti and Mendelsohn 2011; Massetti and Mendelsohn 2012). This assumption has been supported by the data as the squared terms on climate have generally been statistically significant. Schlenker and Roberts (2009) have suggested that the effect of temperature on agricultural productivity may be not captured by a quadratic functional form because it is highly non-linear at the high temperatures. Schlenker and Roberts found a temperature threshold at about 30°C. Beyond this threshold agricultural productivity plummetts.

Schlenker and Roberts (2009) limit their analysis to crop yields and use yearly data. Thus, they focus on short-term weather fluctuations and they neglect the possibility that farmers switch crops to avoid the harmful thresholds. Massetti and Mendelsohn (2014) is the first study that uses flexible functional forms to estimate the effect of growing season temperature on American farmland values and crop yields. The paper finds evidence of the hill-shaped response function for both farmland value and crop yields. But there is no evidence of temperature thresholds whether temperature is measured at 3 hour intervals, daily, or for multiple days.

With this paper we test if the relationship between temperature and land values in Europe is characterized by temperature thresholds. This is a relevant research question because if thresholds exist the increase in mean temperature will cause sizeable damages to the European agriculture. Thus, our study has direct policy implications for both mitigation and adaptation policy.

We use a flexible specifications for temperature in a Ricardian setup replicating the method of Massetti and Mendelsohn (2014) and following in spirit the method developed by Schlenker and Roberts (2009). With our method we are able to detect if farmland that is more frequently exposed to the right tail of the temperature distribution is also consistently traded at lower value than other farmland. If the Ricardian relationship is characterized by temperature thresholds we expect to find that the effect of additional warming at the highest temperatures is significantly negative and much larger than lower temperature levels.

This paper uses a unique dataset obtained by merging farm-level data for more than 37,000 farms derived by van Passel, Massetti, and Mendelsohn (2014) from the Farm Accountancy Data (FADN) with daily temperature data from the ERA-INTERIM dataset over 1981-2010. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 illustrates the method used for the analysis. Section 3 describes the dataset used. Section 4 illustrates results and presents robustness tests. Conclusions follow.

P-2223-14

## Building a statistical emulator for prediction of crop yield response to climate change: A global gridded panel data set approach

M. Mistry (1); E. De Cian (2); I. Wing (3)

(1) Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Department of economics, Venice, Italy; (2) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (3) Boston University, Dept. of earth & environment, Boston, United States of America

There is widespread concern that trends and variability in weather induced by climate change will detrimentally affect global agricultural productivity and food supplies. Reliable quantification of the risks of negative impacts at regional and global scales is a critical research need, which has so far been met by forcing state-of-the-art global gridded crop models with outputs of global climate model (GCM) simulations in exercises such as the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)-Fastrack.

Notwithstanding such progress, it remains challenging to use these simulation-based projections to assess agricultural risk because their gridded fields of crop yields are fundamentally denominated as discrete combinations of warming scenarios, GCMs and crop models, and not as model-specific or model-averaged yield response functions of meteorological shifts, which may have their own independent probability of occurrence. By contrast, the empirical climate economics literature has adeptly represented agricultural responses to meteorological variables as reduced-form statistical response surfaces which identify the crop productivity impacts of additional exposure to different intervals of temperature and precipitation [cf Schlenker and Roberts, 2009]. This raises several important questions: (1) what do the equivalent reduced-form statistical response surfaces look like for crop model outputs, (2) do they exhibit systematic variation over space (e.g., crop suitability zones) or across crop models with different characteristics, (3) how do they compare to estimates based on historical observations, and (4) what are the implications for the characterization of climate risks?

We address these questions by estimating statistical yield response functions for four major crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybeans) over the historical period (1971-2004) as well as future climate change scenarios (2005-2099) using ISIMIP-Fastrack data for five GCMs and seven crop models. We also provide a flexible and comprehensive set of regional and international observations. Our approach, which is patterned after Lobell and Burke (2010), is a novel application of cross-section/time-series statistical techniques from the climate economics literature to large, high-dimension, multi-model datasets, and holds considerable promise as a diagnostic methodology to elucidate uncertainties in the processes simulated by crop models, and to support the development of climate impact intercomparison exercises.

P-2223-15

## Climate Sensitivity of Rice Yields: An Agro Climatic Zone Analysis in Andhra Pradesh, India

SR. Padakandla (1)

(1) Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Division for Sustainable Development Studies, Hyderabad, India

Observational data confirm that there have been significant regional variations in climate change patterns across India. This paper examines the effect of rainfall and temperature on rice yields of different climatic zones in Andhra Pradesh using district level panel data from 1981-2010. Analysis of data shows that the degree of impact of climate on yield of rice is varied across different climatic zones. Climatic zones which have traditionally higher temperature and less rainfall are more susceptible to variations in climate. Similarly impact of irrigation is more significant in traditionally drier zones than others.

P-2223-16

## Widespread vulnerability of current crop production to climate change demonstrated using a data-driven approach
TAM. Pugh (1); C. Müller (2); J. Elliott (3); A. Armenth (1)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, United States of America

The projected increase in global population suggests that, among a range of measures, an increase in food production will likely be necessary to achieve food security. A great deal of effort has been focused on the so-called "yield gap", the difference between actual and potential yields. The closing of this yield gap would bring about massive increases in production. Intensification actions such as irrigation, fertilisation, and better farming practices can bring the actual yield closer to the potential yield, although such actions may not be practical everywhere. Yet climate change greatly complicates this picture; crops are sensitive to their growing environment, and it is therefore inevitable that climate change will impact upon potential crop yields, changing the target for which intensification measures are aiming, and meaning that significant intensification may be required just to hold actual yields constant. Global crop models give some insight into such changes, but huge uncertainties in their process representations make even the direction of future change uncertain. We demonstrate a complementary data-driven approach, based on observations of current potential yield and climate analogues, to assess the vulnerability of yields of the three major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice, to climate change. We find that huge swaths of current cropland show strong reductions in their potential yields of major cereal crops by the mid 21st century, indicating a large vulnerability of crop production in these areas to climate change, and greatly reducing the capacity for intensification of yields. These reductions are predominately in tropical or arid areas, and include current high-productivity areas like the North American corn-belt. Conversely, however, we also find large areas where potential yields increase substantially under climate change. These areas are most prominent in the northern temperate zone, and include areas not currently under cropland. Our approach is independent of the crop modelling methodologies previously used for future yield projections, however we find our results to be consistent with those from an ensemble of process-based global crop models, providing important additional constraint on projections of future yield under climate change. Adaptation measures based on intensification of yields must consider the change in productive yields due to climate change.

P-2223-17

## Biophysical modeling of climate change impacts on crop yields in Europe by 2030-2050 and socio-economic implications

F. Ramosi (1); M. Blanco (2); B. Van Doorslaer (3); D. Fumagalli (1); A. Ceglar (1); F. Dentener (1); St. Stanca (2)
(1) European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (2) Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain; (3) European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain

An impact assessment of climate change scenarios on agriculture was run covering the EU-28 region and focusing on 2030 and 2050 time horizons. To assess the impact of model uncertainties, three model realizations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios were used as the input of the analysis, based upon the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 from the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) HADGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, all bias-corrected at 0.5×0.5° resolution.

The WOFOT (World Food Studies) model has been used within the BioMA (Biophysical Model Application) platform to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop yields at EU-level. The crop yield simulations were performed at 25x25 km^2 and soil and crop parametrization of the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) that provides the European Commission operational seasonal forecasts of crop yields in Europe. The crops covered by this study were wheat, maize, barley, rye, field beans, rapeseed, sunflower, sugar beet and potato. For each of these ten crops, simulations were performed under water limited (rainfed) and potential (fully irrigated) conditions. Uncertainties are associated with the

effect of CO2 on plant growth which were assessed by simulating considering or not the CO2 fertilization effect. The simulated yields were aggregated at regional, national and EU28 levels, using regional statistics on crop areas.

The crop growth simulations show in most of the cases a stagnation or a moderate increase in the potential yields of most of the crops with the notable exception of maize, sunflower and sunflower oil. Water limited conditions, the picture is slightly different with more pronounced negative effects for maize and sunflower. The greatest decreases in the water limited yields occur with HADGEM2-ES GCM that simulates a drier future climate than the two other GCMs. The actual crop yields, estimated by a weighted average of potential and water limited yields using data on European irrigation shares (EUROSTAT), show an overall moderate increase for the three climate models under RCP 8.5 scenario when the CO2 effect is taken into account but a decrease when it is not.

The spatial distribution of the yield changes is crop specific with for instance an overall increase in winter wheat yields for most of the EU 28 regions and an overall decrease of maize (summer crop) yields, with in both cases a reversed result for northern Europe.

Focusing on the year 2030, a bio-economic approach was proposed to jointly assess biophysical and socio-economic effects of climate change on agriculture, providing both global level analysis as well as regionalised for the EU. The global agro-economic model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) has been used to assess the effects of climate induced yield changes on agricultural production and prices. The future quantitative societal developments were introduced in the model by means of an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2).

The results suggest that agriculture markets projections to 2030 are sensitive to changes in crop productivity and, therefore, to the uncertainties linked to climate change. They show as well that market forces can reverse the effects of climate induced yield changes with a decrease (increase) in production when yields increase (decrease). The price changes will induce adjustments both on the intensity of production and on crop areas. A sectorial analysis indicates that the regional variability in prices and areas is greater for oilseeds than for cereals. Overall the modelling exercise estimates a moderate decrease of the EU agricultural income for all the scenarios with the CO2 fertilization effect simulated and a moderate increase when the CO2 fertilization effect is ignored. The limitations of these conclusions will be explored.

P-2223-18

## Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

A. Ruane (1); S. Mcdermid, (2); C. Rosenzweig (3)

(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (2) New York University, New York, NY, United States of America; (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, United States of America

The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods.

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal
climate. This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects to illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

P-2223-19

## Past and future changes in climate of rice-wheat cropping zone in Punjab, Pakistan

B. Syed Ahsan Ali (1); G. Rasul (1); A. Ruane (2); G. Hoogenboom (3)

(1) Pakistan Meteorological Department, Research and Development Division, Islamabad, Pakistan; (2) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (3) Washington State University, Washington, United States of America

Agriculture is ranked Pakistan's top among economic sectors vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. The agricultural production system is directly affected by weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall) that are projected to change in the future (following increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases). Climate extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves are expected to increase with detrimental consequences for agriculture and livestock production, but changes in mean climates also pose challenges to sustainable development. This study presents climate change results for five districts within the major rice-wheat productivity zone of Punjab province in Pakistan. The results are focused on RCP8.5 mid century (2040-2069) scenarios derived from five global climate models (GCMs) outpaced and the Kharif (June-October) and Rabi (November-April) seasons. Analysis of recent historical weather data of Sialkot and Sheikhupura districts shows an increase in minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures and a large variation in rainfall. This temperature change and variability in rainfall is expected to enhance further as we approach the 2050s. Mean maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2-2.5°C during rice growing (Kharif) season and 2.4-2.7°C during the wheat growing (Rabi) season. Rainfall during rice growing season is more uncertain, with projections indicating an increase of 25%-35% in the study region, while a minimal change is expected during the Rabi season. The projected increase in monsoon intensity corresponds with the climax of the rice season, leaving no doubt about the crop water demand satisfaction. However, simultaneous increase in day and night temperature may affect the growth and development at some critical phenological stages.

P-2223-20

## Economic Impact of climate change and benefits of adaptation in maize production in Southern Africa: Case study from South Africa, Namibia and Botswana

M. Teweldemedhin (1)

(1) Polytechnic of Namibia, Agriculture, Windhoek, Namibia

The paper applied the Trade-Off Analysis-Multi-Dimensional (TOA-MD) model to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change and benefits of adaptation strategies for maize-based agricultural production systems in Southern Africa. The analysis was based on data collected from three countries, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. The empirical analyses combined simulated baseline and future simulated yield from the Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model, under five different climate scenarios selected from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The paper focused on analysing three main objectives: (a) the sensitivity of current crop production systems to future climate change, (b) the sensitivity of future crop production systems to future climate change and (c) the benefits of adaptation in the future. The empirical results show that current and future crop production systems in the three study countries are sensitive to future climate change and yields would decline in the adapted scenario. The results with the adaptation package show positive gains in yields, farm net returns and marginal reductions in poverty. In addition, the percentage of vulnerable farmers decrease for the scenario with adaptation compared to the other two scenarios without adaptation. Since various assumptions and uncertainties are associated with using the proposed approach, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this study shows the potential to yield new insights into the way that realistic adaptation strategies could improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers.

P-2223-21

## Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Maize Yields in Croatia

V. Vucetic (1)

(1) METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE, AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, ZAGREB, Croatia

Analyzing agricultural systems and modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production is a very important topic, particularly nowadays as food supplies are becoming scarcer in many parts of the world and the need for all people to have sufficient food. As climate changes of different intensity in various regions were detected, there is a need for researching them at regional and national levels. The main application of the crop models is in climate change impact research on agriculture. Maize, winter wheat and spring barley are very often used for scientific investigations in the central and southeastern Europe using the different crop-weather models. Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia and its vegetation period coincides with the warm season, from May to October. Therefore, it was decisive factor in the crop type choice for the research of climatic changes impact on maize yields in Croatia. The meteorological data of the Zagreb-Maksimir station, which is situated in the central Croatia, and pedological data, physiological and morphological data obtained in the field maize experiment in Zagreb have been analyzed. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model, as one of the most applied crop model in the world, has been used for the investigation of maize production in the present climate since 1949. The linear trends of model outputs and Mann-Kendall test indicated a significant earlier onset of silking by 1.4 days/10 years and physiological maturity by 4.5 days/10 years in the central Croatia which started in mid-1990s. Moreover, a significant decrease in maize yields by 216 kg/ha in 10 years is also obtained. The yield trend became significant at the beginning of the 21st century. There was a slight decrease in kernel mass (0.01 g/10 years) and aboveground biomass (122 kg/ha in 10 years). A positive trend in evapotranspiration and soil evaporation (around 3 mm/10 years) and in runoff (0.6 mm/10 years) has been noticed during the vegetation period. Thus, significant shortening of the vegetation period by 5 days and reduction in maize yield by 2% have been estimated in the present climate. Further investigation involved the generation of synthetic meteorological series representing the changed climate by stochastic weather generator Met&Roll and different climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were prepared by the pattern scaling technique using the following global climate models: ECHAM, HadCM and SCIRO. The middle climate sensitivity is a 2.5°C increase in global temperature to equilibrium doubled carbon dioxide. When the three climate change scenarios had been prepared, the stochastic weather generator Met&Roll was applied to generate a 99-years synthetic meteorological series. Using the synthetic meteorological series in the DSSAT model, the indirect effect of increased carbon dioxide on maize yields in the central Croatia has been estimated for different climate change scenarios for 20 years and 2100. All climate change scenarios for the 21st century projected a shorter growing season and a reduction in maize yields. The maize vegetation period in the central Croatia would be 39 days shorter for ECHAM, 42 days for HadCM and 34 days shorter for SCIRO, which would result in 14%, 25% and 22% smaller yields for maize, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Both shifting planting date and using hybrids with longer growing season would be beneficial for maize productivity in the Changing crop. The experience of farmers and agronomists in the central Croatia shows they have already been adapting maize production to the warmer weather conditions in the last decade. The usual hybrids in the central Croatia were hybrids with a medium growing season, but nowadays hybrids with a longer growing season are increasingly used. In the future, thus, Croatia could belong to the area of decreased maize yields. Some adaptation options like shifting to an earlier sowing date and selecting hybrids with longer growing season and resistant to drought could be an appropriate response to offset the negative effect of an increase in temperature. The present study could help in optimizing and improving agricultural management in order to adapt to changes in
## Two possible future climate scenarios for AgMIP-GGCMI - Sulfate Injection Climate Intervention and Regional Nuclear War

L. Xia (1); A. Robock (2); J. Elliott (3)

(1) Rutgers University, Department of environmental sciences, New Brunswick NJ, United States of America; (2) Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America; (3) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America

Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops under different climate scenarios. Here we propose two possible future climate scenarios for the global crop modelling community: stratospheric sulfate climate intervention and regional nuclear war. Although we certainly do not advocate either scenario, we cannot exclude the possibilities: if global warming is getting worse, society might consider deliberately manipulating global temperature: if nuclear weapons still exist, we might face a nuclear war catastrophe. Since in both

scenarios there would be reductions of temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which are three controlling factors on crop growth, it is important to study food supply changes under the two cases. There have been 12 general circulation modelling groups participating in the Geoenvironmental Modeling Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) and three modelling groups have conducted the same regional nuclear war simulations, with fires from targets injecting 5 Tg soot into the upper troposphere. We are approaching a robust understanding of climate changes under the two scenarios. We have conducted simulations for China, because of its high population and crop production in the world and we have been working on global agriculture impact under those two scenarios using the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM-crop). Also, we are preparing protocols and datasets for the Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative (GGCMI), which will conduct a multi-crop multi model assessment of crop yields under the above two simulated climate scenarios. Preliminary results indicate significant changes in patterns of global food production, with substantial losses in major bread baskets around the world under the simulated regional nuclear war scenarios. Here, we would like to invite more global crop modelling groups to be involved in this project, and hence to gain a better understanding of global agriculture responses under the two possible but unpleasant future climate scenarios.

# 2224 - Agrarian and pastoral societies: adaptive strategies and innovations

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2224-01

#### Climate Compatible Development in Mongolia: analysis of vulnerability and adaptation response to global changes

D. Ojima (1); C. Togtokh (2); K. Galvin (3)

(1) Colorado State University and Future Earth US Hub, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins, United States of America; (2) Institute for Sustainable Development, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; (3) Colorado State University, School of global environmental sustainability, Colorado, United States of America

**INTRODUCTION:** Climate change and variability, market and policy changes are shaping pastoral communities' decisions on what pathways their future livelihoods will take and how the steppe landscapes and river basins, are managed. Recent droughts and damaging winter storms (zuds) of the past two decades have exacerbated the situation and undermined the natural capital on which the pastoral livelihoods depend.. River basins are critical natural resources for well-being of the social and ecological systems in Mongolia. River basins provide the ecosystem services which support pastoral communities, and industrial and urban development. Green development strategies are strongly dependent on water resources.

For this study our team worked in nine «sums» (i.e., county level administrative areas) in three river basins in two provinces (aimags) to collect household data from 144 households. We selected three sums in each river basin, representing forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe regions for comparison across river basins and ecological zones. We also collected census data from the «aimags» and national level to understand trends at the level of regions and river basins.

### FINDINGS:

Drought management. Unlike for «zud», people report very few sources of help with drought beyond their household and kin relations. By far the most frequently cited strategy for coping with drought is to do «otor» - long distance movements with livestock.

Cooperation. The most frequently listed "best coping strategy" across all ecosystem types was for herders to have better cooperation, both among themselves and with administrators. They frequently expressed the idea that

people working alone cannot accomplish much compared to when they work together. Furthermore, one herder said that in the past, 'we deeply understood that the most important thing is cooperation during natural disasters.' Herders also want improved education and training to cope with climate and market changes.

Protection and management of pastures, and support to do «otor» were next set of important strategies after cooperation. Protection of pastures by local governments is an important strategy for protection from mining expansion in addition to improved management of seasonal pastures.

### ADAPTATION ACTIONS:

Integrated river basin management plans. Develop cross ministry and cross-sectoral working groups to develop and implement plans and actions which cut across land, water, livelihood resource needs. Incorporate assessment and monitoring of natural resources. Integrate climate change impact analysis, especially droughts on natural capital, ecosystem services, and livelihood needs. Create governance structures which incorporate both technical and stakeholder perspectives.

Monitoring and Assessment. Establish indicator metrics for multiple water, land and livelihood resources and outcomes. Evaluate vulnerability and adaptive capacity taking into account natural capital, ecosystem services, and livelihoods. Provide early warning for zud, based on summer drought and grazing conditions, and also zud forecasting.

Training and capacity building. Provide training for integrated management which provides tools and skills for assessing and monitoring natural capital, ecosystem services and socio-economic conditions across the river basins. The training tools would include geospatial data gathering on climate, natural resource distribution and usage, land use patterns, community-based planning and management practices, sum, bag and other informal boundaries. Provide adaptation and green development courses for local communities and school systems. Also provide training to resource managers on how to access and communicate information on climate change, natural resource management, adaptation and green development opportunities. For example, develop a webinar program to learn and disseminate skills.
# Innovative adaptation of pastoral systems to climate change: - Case study in Mongolia -

C. Togtokh (1); M. Watanabe (2); S. Watanabe (2)

(1) Institute for Sustainable Development, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; (2) Chuo University, Research and development initiative, Tokyo, Japan

Synergy of scientific, technological, governance and financial dimensions is required for adaptation of pastoral social-ecological systems to climate and global changes.

* Scientific understanding of vulnerability and adaptive capacity of local and regional social-ecological systems is the basis for success of response actions.

* Application of advanced technologies with co-benefits for mitigation and adaptation is one key for responding to climate change;

* Without financial mechanism, which enables application of innovative technology, there will be no technological advancement with improved adaptation and mitigation;

* Governance for sustainable development, integrating environmental, social and economic dimensions, is another key for adaptation towards sustainability;

We will demonstrate a case study in Mongolia, integrating all four dimensions.

Permafrost melting due to global warming impact is likely to be critical slow variable leading towards desertification of rangelands in Mongolia, reducing water availability for plant growth in the spring - critical season for pastoral systems. Pastoral systems are becoming vulnerable because of interacting dynamic factors such as drought, overgrazing and "zud" (severe winter condition for livestock).

Improved early warning systems with ICT technology based on drought/grazing impacts and winter forecasting are critical for early harvesting of livestock and preventing of livestock loss during "zud". Innovative meat storage systems with application of renewable energy-based freezing system is going to be demonstrated in Mongolia which will be co-benefiting mitigation and adaptation.

The Government of Japan and the Government of Mongolia signed the agreement on Low Carbon Development Partnership, using the Joint Credit Mechanism (JCM). The Parliament of Mongolia passed Green Development Policy in June 2013, which serves bases for governance towards sustainability. Climate compatible development, integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, was a core of the policy document.

It is a challenge to demonstrate and observe how technological, governance, financial and scientific factors will work at local community level. Management of innovative technology as new commons by local pastoral community is critical for strengthening the traditional adaptive capacity and resilience of pastoral systems in Mongolia.

# Coupled Biological and Cultural Systems under Himalayan Climate Change: Perceptions, Adaptations and Mitigations

J. Salick (1)

(1) Missouri Botanical Garden, William L. Brown Center, Saint Louis, MO, United States of America

Recent, rapid Himalayan climate change includes rising temperatures, increasing and unpredictable precipitation, glacial retreat, glacial lake formation and outburst, and altering natural resources. Our 1500 km transect across the eastern Himalaya, with intensive, longitudinal ecological alpine plant monitoring (4-5000 masl), shows gradually increasing plant richness, biodiversity and endemism, especially at higher elevations. Comparatively, participatory methodologies of mapping, calendars, photographs and interviews with Himalayan peoples

indicate their keen perceptions of and dramatic adaptations often based on traditional ecological knowledge both to climate change and to interacting socio-economic changes. Himalayan peoples recurrent rapid changes in Himalayan environments, agro-pastoralism and cultural adaptations, indicating dramatic tipping points of production and land-use systems, of subsistence and cash/tourist economies, and of traditional and contemporary cultural contexts - New fruit and vegetable crops are grown, but mostly for tourists, while locals retain their traditional diets. Yak herding now takes time from lucrative tourism. Lucrative chung cao (Ophiocordycps sinensis) harvesting, once traditional, now commercial, dominates the early spring calendar. Both traditional spiritualism and tourism are threatened by snowless mountains, diminished glaciers and the disappearance of sacred cranes. With increased precipitation, traditional mud roofs are collapsing and being replaced by economical corrugated coverings. Traditional yak robes are too warm, while contemporary, light weight hiking gear is nationally produced and inexpensive. Road incursions into the Himalaya bring more tourists, tourism conglomerates and commercial goods, while undermining traditional ways of life and increasing carbon footprints. Traditional ecological knowledge and economic savvy prescribe rival adaptations for Himalayan peoples; traditional culture and economics become competing paradigms for the Himalayan climate change. Local people's perceptions of climate change are varied and potentially generalizable, but contextually in decline. Systems dynamics between biological and cultural diversity - models of biocultural diversity and interrelatedness - are transforming and potentially threatening the remarkable Himalayan Biocultural diversity. While Himalayan plants seem to be adapting slowly to climate change, Himalayan peoples struggle. Climate change policy needs to incorporate indigenous peoples and their knowledge to support sustainable livelihoods and food sovereignty.

# Climate variability as experienced by farmers

C. Leclerc (1); C. Mwongera, (2); V. Moron (3)

(1) CIRAD - UMR AGAP, Crop Diversity Societies, Dynamics and Environments, Montpellier, France; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya; (3) Aix Marseille Université, and CEREGE, Aix en Provence, France

The typical approach of estimating crop response to future climate scenarios may be inappropriate in the case of smallholder multi cropping rain-fed agriculture. Indeed, a crop-by-crop simulation, based on current varieties, cannot take into account the dynamics among crops as well as within crops i.e. among varieties, in time and space. We implemented a comparative study to understand interactions between cropping system dynamics and past climate variations, taking into account the diversity of farmers' experiences and socio-cultural organization.

In Kenya, farmers who adopted maize a few years ago are still cultivating traditional sorghum and pearl millet varieties, while others abandoned them earlier in favour of maize. Farming systems were thus dynamic, with different crop assemblages over time. Thus, retrospectively, farmers' capacity to mitigate crop failure risk due to extreme rainfall events has never been constant. Has the farming system lost part of its capacity to cope with climate variability, as maize is known to be less resistant to drought than sorghum and pearl millet? While this is usually demonstrated using yield parameter, we used seed losses, which is consistent with a micropilot system.

Combining ecological anthropology and climatology, we confronted the results of a retrospective survey of farmers' seed loss reminiscence about the period 1961-2006 and climatic records for three altitudinal levels on the eastern slope of Mount Kenya were analysed. Over the period, 3204 seed loss events were reported independently by 208 farmers, for eight main crops of their rain-fed farming systems. The causes given for these losses according to farmers' experience and knowledge were recorded yearly. We first assessed whether these causes were related to recorded rainfall values, and, second, analysed the proportion of lost seed on a yearly basis, crop by crop and on the whole farming system, using logistic regression.

Drought was mentioned 73.5% of the time whereas 8.5% of the losses were attributed to heavy rainfall. Farmers recalls coincided on drought years associated with crop diversity losses: conditional Chi-square tests based on Monte Carlo
simulation clearly rejected independence (p = 0.001) between climatic reasons given by farmers and recorded rainfall, for both droughts and heavy rainfall. Farmers' retrospective perception of drought corresponds to major droughts reported for Kenya.

By favouring maize at the expense of sorghum and pearl millet, cropping system dynamics have promoted an increasing risk of drought-related seed loss. The probability to lose sorghum seed (0.056- 0.065) was significantly lower than the probability to lose maize seed (0.071-0.087). All crops were affected more by droughts than by heavy rainfall. Seed loss probability increased for a rainy season shorter than 50 days, with less than 28 rain days, and with a precipitation under 400 mm. Logistic regression confirmed that a change in cropping systems increased the risk of seed losses due to drought over the 46-yr period.

Farmers experienced climate variability differently, with greater negative impact on farmers cultivating maize. Ecological and social components thus cannot be analytically isolated but have to be considered as parts of a socio-ecological system. While usual approaches consider present-day characteristics of agricultural systems to assess their adaptability to hypothetical rainfall variability (projection into the future), our study used farmer experiences to look into the past. In our approach, past rainfall variability is already known, not hypothetical, while farmers' experiences can allow assessment of the evolution of their agricultural systems, which can be monitored over their, and related to climate variability.

The cropping system dynamics, by favouring maize at the expense of sorghum and pearl millet are partly related to agricultural policies that positively valued maize, whereas sorghum and pearl millet were devalued, being perceived as "poor people crops". The current dynamics of agricultural systems thus imply many dimensions, not only economical, political, and agronomical, but also cultural.

## K-2224-05

# Adaptation of Irrigated agriculture to climate CHAnge: trans-disciplinary modelling of a watershed in South India

L. Ruiz (1)

(1) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Sol agro et hydrosysystèmes spatialisation (sas), Quimper, France

In the context of climate change and of agriculture increasingly relying on groundwater irrigation, it is crucial to develop reliable methods for sustainability assessment of current and alternative agricultural systems. The awareness that prediction of impact of climate change for water resource management must account for interactions and feedbacks between biophysical processes determining movement of water, and human behavior in a given socio-economic context has gained significant recognition among scientists in the past few years, including the recent advocacy for the development of the new science of "socio-hydrology", dedicated at studying the "co-evolution of coupled human-water systems". Recently, "Change in hydrology and society" was proposed by IAHS as the main research theme for the decade 2013-2022.

In this talk, we introduce the Indo-French CEFIPRA project "AICHA" (Adaptation of Irrigated agriculture to climate CHAnge, 2013-2016), based on the analysis of an agricultural watershed in South India, where a long term environmental observatory has been set up. We describe the trans-disciplinary approach that is developed to analyse the agro-hydrological and socio-economic drivers of groundwater sustainability and farmer adaptation, using integrated modelling.

In the studied watershed, spatial heterogeneity in groundwater gradients has resulted from intensive groundwater pumping in the villages in valley that started in the early 1990s. The decline in groundwater level provoked the disconnection between the groundwater and the river bed, and the main permanent rivers turned into ephemeral streams. Wells are being recently drilled in the upland areas and groundwater irrigation is increasing. Our analysis suggests that these contrasted evolutions are closely linked to the spatial distribution of soil types and groundwater availability, besides access to market and knowledge.

We hypothesize that feedbacks between the biophysical-social system and spatial interactions must be accounted for in order to be able to study scenarios of agricultural evolution and water management policies, not only in terms of sustainability at the scale of the watershed but also in terms of spatial variability of both the groundwater resource and the evolution of socio-economic inequity over time. Consequently, we propose to develop a model framework that combines hydrology, agronomy and economy.

We will also insist on one of the critical challenge in implementing such integrated models, which is to develop the human component of this framework to account for farmer decision that occur at different time scales. We propose to base this module on decision rules to allow the representation of farmer adaptation to a changing environment.

## K-2224-06

# Adaptation of Irrigated agriculture to climate CHAnge: Retrieving relevant information for distributed modelling of impact of Climate Change of water resources

S. Muddu (1)

(1) Indian Institute of Science, Civil Engineering Department, Bangalore, India

Developing integrated assessments of the sustainability of irrigated agriculture is critical in the context of ever growing pressure on water resources. A wide variety of models have been developed for simulating future scenarios of land-use change, climate change or ex-ante evaluation of management policies. Such models usually fail to account for feed backs of shrinking water resources on farmer strategies, and tend to neglect the biophysical and socio-economic interactions spatially and temporally within the watershed.

In this talk, we will present innovative approaches that are conceived and tested within the Indo-French CEFIPRA project "AICHA" (Adaptation of Irrigated agriculture to climate CHAnge, 2013-2016) based on a watershed in South India where a long term environmental observatory has been setup.

One of the critical challenge is to implement the integrated agro-hydrological model in a distributed way over the whole watershed. We propose to use methods based on remote-sensing to collect data on land use and soil properties.

One of the challenges of using such models for scenario testing in a distributed way is the need for accurate knowledge, for example for soil and crop parameters (Launay and Guérif, 2005) which are scarcely available for tropical conditions. As an example of the development of innovative methodologies fostered by the project, we present a method to retrieve soil parameters using remote sensing and crop model inversion (Sreelash et al., 2012; 2013).

Further, another challenge is for developing future projections of water balance components based on such an integrated agro-hydrological model would be the choice of the climate model forecasts to drive the model. This is commonly achieved by driving the agro-hydrological model with the bias-corrected precipitation data from the GCMs. The approaches that are being used for disaggregate and bias-correct the precipitation from the GCMs of CMIP3 will be presented.

## 2224-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2224-01

# Strategies of farmers to rainfall variations in the municipality of Zè in Benin

VN. Adjahossou (1) ; SB. Adjahossou (2) ; FE. Dovonou (3) ; DF. Adjahossou (4)

(1) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Géographie, Cotonou, Benin;

(2) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Génie de l'environnement,

Cotonou, Benin; (3) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Faculté

des sciences et techniques, Calavi, Benin; (4) Université
d'Abomey-Calavi, Faculté des sciences agronomiques, Cotonou, Benin

Current climate change in several parts of the world are real obstacles to the development of agricultural activities. This change is characterized by irregularity and bad distribution of rainfall along the year. Sometimes rainfall occurs in abundance during a short period when crops don't need a lot of water. These difficulties are greater for farmers in developing countries as those in South-Benin practicing for the most part, highly dependent on rainfall agriculture.

Documentary research, observation and investigation in a real area have permitted to collect the necessary data during this research. The surveys were conducted with 202 farmers living and operating in the Municipality of Zè. This area is located in Atlantique department. It is situated between 6° 32' and 6' 87 N latitude and between 2'13' and 2' 26 E longitude. It covers an area of 653km², Zè is the largest municipality in the department represents 19.88% of the territory.

The climate is sub-equatorial and is characterized by rainfall amounts higher or lower, a relatively small annual mean temperature (less than 5° C) and the succession of four distinct seasons: a long rainy season from mid - March to mid - July, a short dry season from mid - July to August; a small rainy season from September to November and a long dry season from December to mid - March. The frequencies of rainfall and water levels are experiencing more and more disturbances in recent years. The hydrographic system is not dense. Only the northern part of the municipality is watered by the tributaries of the river Oueme mainly Sò River.

It appears from the use of the data collected that people (more than 84% rural) of the Zè municipality develop strategies to cope with climate change. In general, the agricultural calendar is modified to comply with new rainfall rates.

The combination of cultures and multiple or replanting seedlings are practiced in place to reduce the impact of rainfall variations on Agriculture in Zè. Changing the cropping calendar

Crop calendar takes account of the seasonal precipitation. Land preparation takes place in the late dry seasons. From the first rains, the farmers start planting. To the rainy season, the farmers plant in mid - April and early rainy season from mid-August to mid - September for maize. Currently, with late rains, sowing takes place later. Generally, farmers expect three to four rains before planting when they consider soil humidity is sufficient to favor seed germination and seedling emergence. But some farmers take the risk of planting after heavy rain and other precipitation when not following the operation, they resume planting.

In localities of great pineapple productions like municipality of Zè young farmers interested in increasingly pineapple production at the expense of maize production. Pineapple, CAM plant (Crassulacean acid metabolism), tolerates, breaking to sudden stops rain (Degras, 1986). This is not the case of maize which performance may drop drastically when drought occurs in the critical period of 15 days to 20 days during which occurs grain filling (Vieira da Silva, 1984). There is therefore according to farmers, less likely to produce pineapples to produce maize.

The combination of cultures is to produce two or more crops simultaneously in the same field (Steiner, 1985). It contributes to reduce natural risks that could affect crop yields including breaks rain. Trenbath, (1993) showed that species that grows in association with other cultures is less attacked by pests that in mono culture and improves productivity per unit area (Adjahossou, 2005 and Adjahossou, 2012). According to some farmers, the association of cultures would better conserve soil humidity. This could be explained by the limitation of evapotranspiration due to the microclimate created by the combination of two or more cultures. In the study area, commonly associated crops are maize-cassava, maize-cowpea and corn-pineapple.

It should be noted that these strategies have many limitations and need to be improved significantly.

## Spatial Information Technology (SIT) based Land Sustainability Management through Suitability Analysis in Kansachara Sub-watershed, Bankura and Puruliyad district, West Bengal, India

K. Bera (1) ; J. Bandyopadhyay, (2)

(1) Vidyasagar University, Remote Sensing & GIS, Midnapore, India; (2) Vidyasagar University, Remote sensing &gis, Kolkata, India

Soil is one of the most important non renewable natural resources and soil fertility is its crucial component for land sustainability. Now it is being increasingly emphasized for village level planning. Prosperity of agriculture of any region depends on physical and chemical properties of soil. SIT can play a very effective role in soil fertility analysis for land sustainable management.

The study is an attempt to identify the suitability areas of some alternative crops namely Maize, Barley, Millets, Paddy (Upland and Bunded), Potato, Papaya, Sunflower, Groundnut, Sorghum, Pigeon, Papaya and Sesame etc. The suitable land were identified based on the land capability. Land capability area were identify proposed by Tejwani et al. (1976) method. The land capability is categorized into two sub class i.e. i) Land fit for cultivation ii) Land not suitable for cultivation. Both the land is management by different ways.

The study concluded that the cultivable land management is done on the basis of knowledge of crop suitability followed by SYS method for maximum benefit of the farmers. The other hand non cultivable land is managed by applying 1. Grass Land, 2. Conservation Forestry, 3. Horticulture and 4. Animal husbandry.

## Develop a web service portfolio to support the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and water management to climate change

N. Breda (1) ; A. Chénot (2) ; T. Caquet (2) ; C. Gascuel-Doux (3) ; J.F. Soussana (4)

(1) INRA, Umr 1137 inra-université de lorraine <u>forest</u> ecology and ecophysics-efb, Champenoux, France

(2) INRA, Uar 1275 ecology of forests, grasslands and freshwater systems division, Champenoux, France; (3) INRA, 1069 inra-agrocampus ouest <u>soil, agro and hydrosystem-sas</u>, Rennes, France; (4) INRA, Collège de direction, Paris, France

The adaptation to climate change of agriculture and forestry as well as water management requires tools to predict the effect of multiple scenarios combining agronomy, forestry, water management and climatic components in any physical environment, in order to anticipate negative effects of climate change, and to test and choose the most relevant strategies anywhere. A project is currently developed for building integrated tools and delivering services, encouraging midterm and strategic adaptation over France, by coupling agronomy, forestry and hydrology models. This project presents two main aspects: 1) an analysis of stakeholders demands, which has already shown that different spatial levels (territory, hydrological basin and whole France) would have to be considered, that demands are multiple and multiform, declined according to different levels of information (general information on the effect of climate change on agriculture and forestry, site vs. crop management modeling, up to totally distributed spatiotemporal agro-hydrologic modeling including economic dimensions); 2) an inventory of the currently available databases and models (climate, soil, crop and hydrology) and an analysis on how to couple them and overcome sectorial vision. The objective of a first step is to elaborate the specifications of one or several detailed integrated model(s), taking into account the demands of the stakeholders. Indeed, they request several innovations for the dissemination of research on adaptation: sharing knowledge and concepts, web mapping tools to display and examine maps or databases computed by modeling coupled water-agriculture-climate, or the making available models online at allowing the user to test by himself adaptation's options. Such a portfolio of services requires calculations