flows. The average flow of the Seine River in Paris could fall between 20% to 40% and the five-year low flow return period between 30 to 60%. A significant decrease in the dilution capacity of the Seine River and its tributaries with regards to pollutants is likely then to arise within the next forty years.

At the same time, the Paris area should continue its development. This is certainly an ambition of policy makers. In this context the future of wastewater treatment will become very complex while being impacted by cumulated constraints: increased sensitivity of the Seine to discharges of pollutants, pollutant loads increase at the treatment plants inlet and less possibility for pollutants loads discharges in the Seine River.

In these circumstances, compliance with environmental standards will become more difficult and can lead to put into question improvements that were achieved in recent years. More general questions also arise on broader issues: the search for technical solutions to obtain high waste water treatment performances at affordable energy cost, the search for alternatives to conventional sanitation by implementing an extraction of the chemical elements C, N, P out of the water cycle, or the possibility of lowering thresholds for environmental indicators before returning the treated water into the rivers; the latter issue may help to explain environmental stress in energy, water, food and land use. Planning for climate change is essential in current times of uncertainty and this research contributes new findings towards this effort (Barth, 2011).

This example is an illustration of the problems that the megacities will face. But, if the improving knowledge of water resources and the changing needs of the population are keys from promoting new solutions, it will also be necessary to analyse the way political decisions are being taken.

These issues and many more will be the subject of an international scientific symposium dedicated to water management in megacities and global change (particularly climate change), held from December 1st to 4th 2015 in Paris and organized by ARCEAU-IDF with the support of UNESCO (http://eaumega2015.sciencesconf.org/)

## O-2229-06

### Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies at the district scale

**M. Musy (1)**

(1) ensa Nantes, IRSTV FR CNRS 2488, Nantes, France

The urban climate is on average warmer than its rural counterpart. This urban heat island (or UHI) is influenced by the corresponding urban form and materials and their impacts on radiative exchanges and heat storage, by vegetation and byanthropogenic heat gains. In summer, heat rejection from air cooling systems can represent a substantial share of these anthropogenic gains and this is itself exacerbated by the urban heat island, since this diminishes systems' performance. On the other hand, in climates in which buildings' energy use is dominated by heating demands, the UHI reduces demands for applied energy and may, on the whole, improve pedestrians' comfort. These climate-energy-comfort relationships are complex and intertwined. Furthermore, as cities become denser, the magnitude of this UHI increases and this can have significant implications for building energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, comfort and indeed for mortality; as the influence of heat waves isintensified. Solutions to climate change mitigation, energy transition and climate change adaptation must thus be tackled simultaneously. The effectiveness of these solutions requires, in addition to knowledge of the relationships between climate and the thermal behaviour of buildings, the development of approaches that support predictions of energy use in the urban context and its impacts on the urban microclimate. In that context, policymakers face an increasing need to improve knowledge of environmental impacts from city layouts and uses on the urban climate, in order to assist with planning climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This proposed contribution aims to gather and debate the state of the art regarding assessment of UHI reduction strategies, with a particular emphasis on the district scale, which is the usualurban planning and design scale.

environment to evaluate the impacts of projected major growth inducing forces into the future.

A comprehensive suite of sustainability indicators from the Houstou Sustainability Indicators project (HSI), will serve as the base measures to characterize Houston and its environment in this study. The HSI project has reported on the sustainable development of the City of Houston for the last four years and produced four (4) reports showing dynamics at various spatial levels (Blackburn 2011; Kline 2014; 2013; 2012). Indicators will be projected to 2030 and 2050 and multivariate analysis will be conducted on the indicators and communities across the city to support identification of major development factors ongoing at these two times (2030 and 2050). Specifically, this exploratory research will seek to identify factors explaining limits to growth around the stress nexus issues of energy, water and food in addition to land use constraints among communities in Houston in 2030 and 2050. Houston needs to prepare for several climate change scenarios such as increases in temperatures, water scarcity, flooding, seal-level rise, droughts and increased storm frequency. However the political climate focuses more on current issues rather than medium term or long term ones. This study serves to examine one method in which cities can evaluate expected development conditions across many processes and identify concurrent development trends that may help to explain environmental stress in energy, water, food and land use. Planning for climate change is essential in current times of uncertainty and this research contributes new findings towards this effort (Barth, 2011).

Barth, B., 2011, A Planning for Climate Change: A Strategic, Value-Based Approach for Urban Planners: Nairobi, Kenya, UN Habitat, Jepson, E. & Haines, A., 2014. Zoning for Sustainability: A Review of the Zoning Ordinances of 32 cities in the United States. Journal of the American Planning Association, 80(3), pp. 239-252. Myers, D., 1997. Anchor Points for Planning's Identification. Journal of Planning Education and Research, pp. 223-224. Talen, E., 1996. After the plans: Methods to evaluate the implementation success of plans. Journal of Planning Education and Research, pp. 79-91.

## O-2229-05

### Climate change and water management issues in megacities, the example of Paris metropolitan area

**B. Nguyen (1); JP. Tabuchi (2)**

(1) UNESCO, SC/HYD/GSS, Paris, France; (2) SIAAP, Direction santé environnement, Paris, France

Are the effects of the climate change at the dawn of the 21st century already visible at the operational water management level of Paris megacity? Some elements speak in favor of it. The scheme and the infrastructures of the drinking water supply system of the capital of France date back to 150 years; and the recording of the rainfalls in Paris began at the end of the 19th century. The gauging of the underground water springs, which supply even today half of the 2.3 millions of Parisians, also benefits from long and precise records since 1872. And one can note a concentration of rare events during these last years: 2001 was the record year of highest rainfalls in Paris with more than 1,000 mm of precipitation; 2003 was the year of the heat wave which killed 15,000 people in France; and in 2006-2007 following several years of droughts, the level of certain springs which supply Paris had never been so low. On the other hand the modern tools for real time measurement of consumptions allow to better understand the consequences of the exceptional climatic episodes which impact the water demand; and consequently to prepare for a more efficient management during these climatic constraints.

As for the future, 4 successive research programs (IGCC-Seine (2004), RExHySS (2009), Explore20 (2012), Climatique (2013) have shown, with a satisfactory level of probability, a number of effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Seine River catchment. These changes would be sensitive from the middle of the century.

According to these scientific works, the most significantly perturbed hazard is drought, not flooding. This is linked to the significant increase in temperature from the mid-century which is sufficient to increase evapotranspiration of about 15%. This increase is paired with a likely decrease in summer precipitation with as result a reduction in low
A 'Sustainability Window' of Urban Form

S. Lohrey (1); F. Creutzig (2)

(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Land Use, Infrastructure and Transport, Berlin, Germany; (2) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Land use, transport and infrastructures, Berlin, Germany

Climate change mitigation becomes an important policy goal for cities worldwide, but local environmental objectives are equally important in policy-making. This study investigates the impact of urban form and modal shares on air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, congestion and cost of living by using both empirical data from a number cities, as well as a straightforward urban economics model. Denser urban form would nearly unambiguously mitigate climate change, but also translate into a higher proportion of air pollution affecting citizens. We introduce a window of most sustainable urban form to highlight trade-offs between the externalities of urban form. Only a combination of transportation policies, infrastructure investment and progressive public finance enables the development of cities that meets all sustainability dimensions simultaneously. We identify a minimum urban density of 50 persons/ha to meet sustainability goals.

2229-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2229-01

Promoting Sustainable Human Settlements and Eco-City Planning Approach: Southeastern Anatolia Region and Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

B. Acma (1)

(1) Anadolu University, Economics, Eskisehir, Turkey

In the recent years, there have been many opportunities flourishing through the development of Turkey. One of these is unvalued rich agricultural and hydro-sources in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), one of the most important projects to develop the remarkable natural resources of the world, is considered as a chance to make use of rich water and agricultural resources of the Southeastern Anatolia Region.

In the recent years, the concept of promoting sustainable human settlements and eco-city planning approach has been included into the GAP Project. And, by applying these concepts in real projects caused remarkable results through development of the region.

The aim of this study is analyze the concepts of promoting sustainable human settlements and eco-city planning approach in the GAP Project that has been still processed.

In the first section, the region of Southeastern Anatolia and the GAP Project will be introduced briefly. In the second section, the stages of GAP Project and the project existing will be analyzed. In the third section, the projects and sub-projects used for promoting sustainable human settlements will be introduced.

In the last and fourth section, a series of policies and strategies for providing the process of settlements which is optimal and harmonizes with eco-system will be given.

P-2229-02

Producing nature for public: panel data analysis of public green spaces provision in Chinese cities

W. Chen (1)

(1) The University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

The landscapes and infrastructures of cities have long been viewed as products of human-nature interaction. This study sheds new light on how a critical constituent of urban landscape and infrastructure, urban public

green spaces, has been produced in China's ongoing profound urbanization process. Over the past decade, China's urbanization has been characterized by a land-based pattern centered on the commercialization and capitalization of urban land induced by the decentralization of state power. The non-budgetary revenues generated from urban land leasing hold the promise to empower local governments' fiscal capacity and flexibility in financing various urban infrastructures aiming to enhance local amenities and attract external investment. This paper investigates the impact of land-based urbanization on the provision of urban public green spaces, an integrated part of urban public infrastructure, using panel data across 285 Chinese prefecture cities from 2002 to 2009. The results reveal a negative relationship between the reliance on land finance and the amount of urban public green spaces, indicating that local governments' pursuit of maximizing local land revenue would not be able to finance more public green spaces, and may even lose the loss of public green spaces. The regional variations amongst the eastern-coastal, central, and western cities confirm that an initially positive relationship between land finance and the provision of urban public green spaces at the early stage of development would reverse to a negative relationship with the increasing pace of urbanization and economic development, which may lead to a social inequity pertaining to public accessibility to urban green spaces. A balance of these two factors, environmental concerns, and social equity is very much needed in the quest for sustainable development.

P-2229-03

Green roof cooling effect as climate-adaptation tool for tropical cities

CY. Jim (1)

(1) University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Hong Kong, China

Global warming has accentuated the urban heat island (UHI) effect in cities. Urban green infrastructures can provide ecosystem services and attendant climate-change adaptation. Compact cities have urban green space (UGS) deficit due to deficient ground-level sites. Numerous building envelopes, including rooftops, facades and walls, furnish ample yet largely untapped greening opportunities. Their efficacy in mitigating climate-change impacts deserve to be investigated by empirical experiments. In compact humid-tropical Hong Kong, two green-roof and a control bare-roof plots were installed on a historical building. Precision temperature sensors were installed in a holistic vertical profile extending from outdoor air to roof surface, green-roof material layers, and indoor ceiling and air. The apartments under the plots were kept unoccupied to monitor air-conditioning energy consumption. The comprehensive-systematic data allowed in-depth analysis of thermal performance of vegetation (Sedum and Perennial Peanut) and weather (sunny, cloudy and rainy) in summer. Intense solar radiation at Control plot triglyceride spaces, material heating, which in turn warmed a near-ground air to intensify UHI effect and indoor space to lift energy consumption. Sedum plot with incomplete plant cover, low transpiration rate and limited substrate moisture experienced feeble evapotranspiration cooling. The warmed roof passed heat to near-ground air and subsurface layers to impose an indoor cooling load. Peanut plot with high transpiration rate can significantly cool foliage surface and near-ground air to ameliorate UHI. Its high moisture-holding capacity, however, can generate a heat-sink to push heat downwards and increase indoor cooling load. Practical hints on green roof design and management were derived from the findings for application in tropical region to contribute to climate-resilient cities.

P-2229-04

Building Urban Climate Resiliency and Adaptation Strategies: A Case Study of an Indian Mega Cities

S. Mandal (1)

(1) National Institute of Technology Patna, Department of Architecture, Patna, Bihar, India

India is experiencing rapid urbanisation, and consequently water demand in urban areas is escalating rapidly. Many megacities of India are located in the central part of the
Gangantic plains. The Indian mega cities are amongst the oldest surviving urban centres in the world, with a continuous recorded history dating back to the fifth century BC (Ramchandran 1999). The Indian cities are one of the fastest growing urban centres in the world. Despite the fact that cities are located on the banks of the river, residents are primarily dependent on groundwater aquifers for domestic water supply. Increasing pressure on groundwater supplies is exacerbated by the unregulated construction of deep tube wells, along with the development of apartment complexes to accommodate a mushrooming urban population. For example, an overall comparison among data sets for the periods 1960-1967, 1977-1986, and 2008-2010 reveals a decline in the level of the deeper aquifer, in the range of 2-10 m (Saha et al 2013). The decline in the piezometric head of the deeper aquifer (13 cm/year) during the previous two decades is another concern (CGWB, 2018). This raises concerns about the security of Indian mega cities water supply, and, hence, the economic vitality and sustainability of the city.

In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, climate change puts further stress on water management and the sustainability of water supplies. Climate change is already having impacts on temperature. Observed average minimum temperatures (annual temperature Jan-Dec) have increased from 19.0°C to 20.5°C over the period from 1989 to 2009. These changes are associated with the changes in population, which has increased from 0.5 million in 1971 to 15 million in 2011). Trends in temperature also interact with non-climatic factors, such as the removal of natural vegetation drainage patterns, loss of rainfall absorbing capacity of soil due to urbanisation and the provision of man-made drainage systems. These interactions compound planning for water supply and demand and increases water insecurity. Moreover, regional annual average monthly maximum temperatures are projected to increase 2.5°C by 2049, based on the ensemble average of 41 CMIP5 models and assumptions of moderate future increases in greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., RCP 4.5: data source: http://climexp.knmi.nl). These projected increases in temperature will put further stress on water supplies, through increased demand for water, and through increased evapotranspiration. In addition, the increasing exposure to climate change, described above, will be superimposed on existing vulnerabilities, which include a lack of groundwater regulation and monitoring. Currently, Indian mega cities lack building by-laws to encourage water conservation. Furthermore, based on informal interviews with water management personnel, it is clear that they lack information on and understanding of projected climate change impacts.

The present study examines the nature of the aquifer system within the urban areas, the temporal changes in the water level and the recharge mechanism of the deeper aquifers. It also looks at associated dialogues and actions related to climate adaptation strategies about water sector in urban areas.

The purpose of this research is to understand the complex dynamics of the water sector and ultimately to suggest the resilience interventions to address these vulnerabilities and tools to support overall resilience, which are needed just to address Indian mega cities non-climate water management concerns, are necessary as a stepping-stone to transformative pathways for addressing the uncertainties associated with our common future under climate change.

P-2229-05

## Urban land-cover types, thermal differences and relative vulnerability to climate change: quantification of South Africa's coastal metropolitans using remotely sensed data

J. Odindi (1) ; O. Mutanga (1) ; E. Abdel-Rahman (1) ; A. Elhadi (2) ; V. Bangamwabo (1)

(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of agriculture, earth and environmental sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa;

(2) University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, School

of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa

Coastal landscapes have historically attracted a larger number of settlements than inland. This trend is expected to continue. Commonly, increase in coastal settlements has been accompanied by growth of existing urban areas, particularly coastal areas. Such growth is characterised by transformation from natural landscapes to impervious surfaces associated with thermal elevation. These result in urban micro and macro climate alteration and vulnerability to climate change and associated impacts. In this study, we determine the relative vulnerability of the eThekwini, Buffalo City and Mandela Bay metropolitan areas on South Africa's eastern seaboard using remotely sensed thermal and multispectral datasets. Duncans post-hoc one-way analysis of variance, multispectral Landsat 8 scenes and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to determine differences between the major land-use-land-cover (LULC) mosaics and their respective surface skin thermal values. Based on each of the metropolitan's LULC proportions and their respective thermal values from MODIS imagery, the Contribution Index (CI) was used to determine the source/sink contributions within each metropolitan area. The eThekwini metropolitan area, due to its dominant impervious surfaces proportion, was more vulnerable to elevated heat and therefore higher relative vulnerability to climate change than the Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay metropolitans. Results in this study show the value of remotely sensed datasets in determining inter and intra urban landscape matrix, thermal elevation and relative vulnerability to climate change. Such findings are particularly valuable for sustainable coastal urban landscape planning and mitigation of climate change related impacts at local, regional and even global scales.

P-2229-06

## Trapped in a flood-prone zone: Poverty and policy in a Tanzanian slum

L Stark (1) ; L Tiina-Riitta (2)

(1) University of Jyväskylä, Department of History and Ethnology, Jyväskylä, Finland; (2) University of Jyväskylä, Dept. of history and ethnology, Jyväskylä, Finland

Dar es Salaam is a coastal city with more than 70 per cent of its five million residents living in informal settlements that lack adequate infrastructure and services. Here climate change is expected to exacerbate the vulnerability of poor communities located along stormwater drainage channels, through sea level rise, increased rainfall variability, and possibly more intense coastal storms. In mid-April of 2014, heavy rainfall led to the worst flooding since Tanzania's independence in 1961 and left at least 15 people dead. It also caused devastating damage to private property and public infrastructure, leaving thousands stranded and without shelter. Apart from significant loss of property and risk to human life, poses widespread health risks for poor residents due to pit latrine overflow.

Not all areas of the city are vulnerable to flooding, however. This paper will explore why the residents of the most flood-prone zones are unable to leave and move elsewhere. Our focus is on the subward of Tandale, located five kilometres from the centre of Dar es Salaam and bordering the Libungo-Ng'ombe river system. This river system experiences severe annual flooding during the long rainy season, and both informal home owners and renters living along its banks find themselves 'trapped' by chronic poverty, lacking the means to rent or purchase homes in other central urban areas (necessary to livelihood) due to rising land values elsewhere. Moreover, disaster risk in this area is exacerbated by the practice of creating landfill from solid waste along river banks to increase space for home construction. Government programs to upgrade infrastructure and formalize land tenure through residential licenses so far do not apply to flood-prone areas, and thus cannot help these residents. Our ethnographic research into residents' experiences of flooding and the reasons for their immobility is based on in-depth, thematic interviews and observation carried out during 2010 - 2014.
## 2230 - Transport and climate change: mitigation and adaptation measures for transport infrastructures

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-2230-01

##### Title not communicated

###### A.Jullien (1)

(1) IFSTTAR, Planning, Mobility and Environment Network, France

Abstract not communicated

#### K-2230-02

##### Title not communicated

###### J. Harvey (1)

(1) Roads LCA, UC Davis, California, USA

Abstract not communicated

#### O-2230-01

##### Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the transport sector

###### A. Leux (1)

(1) French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, Paris, France

International scientific works confirm that climate changes (IPCC, 2007). Climate change already impacts our society and economy in different sectors: energy, infrastructures, agriculture, etc. Tackling climate change is complex, as it requires anticipation, transversal cooperation between elected representative, scientists, the civil society, etc.; and both adaptation and attenuation strategies.

Greenhouse gases emissions from transportation are likely to increase in the coming years. Thus, international policies have been decided to limit greenhouse gases emissions due to the transport sector. The French Ministry for Ecology and Energy has applied these policies and also introduced proactive policies,e.g.to better understand and quantify greenhouse gases emissions and to encourage stakeholder cooperation to reduce there emissions.

All forms of transport are affected by the impacts of climate change on transport networks. Adaptation has become vital due to the long functional lifespan of networks and transport equipment. Four actions to adapt transport have been decided the French Climate Change Adaptation Plan. This plan, set up in 2011 and available for 5 years, results from a consultation of various stakeholderat national and local scales and then, an administrative production, itsfourtransport actionsareaimed atanalysing the impact of climate change on transport infrastructures and networks, anticipating transport system vulnerabilities and making preparations to improve the resistance and resilience of existing and future infrastructures to ensure the continuity and safety of transport services for goods and passengers:

- action 1: review and adapt technical standards for construction, maintenance and operation of transport networks (infrastructures and equipment) in continental France and French overseas territories

- action n°2: study the impact of climate change on transport demand and the consequences for reshaping transport provision

- action n°3: define a harmonised methodology to diagnose the vulnerability of infrastructures and land, sea and airport transport systems

- action n°4: establish a statement of vulnerability for land, sea and air transport networks in continental France and in French overseas territories and prepare appropriate and phased response strategies to local and global climate change issues

#### O-2230-02

##### Adaptation of transport infrastructures and systems to gradual climate change and to extreme climate events

###### M. Colin (1)

(1) CEREMA, Île de France, Sourdun, France

There is no remaining scientific doubts that climate changes (IPCC, 2007). First impacts of climate change are already being felt in numerous sectors, such as energy, agriculture, transport, etc. These impacts are predicted to increase in the coming years. The French Climate Change Adaptation Plan, implemented in 2011 and covering a five-year period, has identified actions and measures to tackle impacts of climate change in these sectors. Since transport infrastructures and systems are vital for economic and human activities and requires long-lasting investments, there is a high need of adaptation solutions. Thus, transport adaptation actions have been identified in the French Climate Change Adaptation Plan. These actions are aimed at improving resistance and resilience of transport systems to climate change. Therefore, a transversal working group with experts of various transport systems was established in 2011. The group met numerous times, among other things, to review and adapt technical standards for the construction, maintenance and operation of transport networks (action 1) and to develop a methodology of risk analysis (action 3).

A diagnostic of impacts due to long-term evolution of climate on infrastructures and on technical and normative reference documents for infrastructures conception, maintenance and operation has been done. Experts representative for all transport modes - road, bridge, rail, aeronautical, waterway, maritime mode, etc. - worked together to understand climate scenarios and to screen major long-term impacts of gradual climate changes and gradual changes of extreme weather events on infrastructures. Hundreds of technical and normative reference documents have been analysed. Documents that may be impacted by climate change have been listed and classified in categories which reflect their priority of adaptation. Climate variables that are required to adapt documents have been identified. The way forward will be to make climate projections to adapt documents and then, construction, maintenance and operation standards.

Adaptation of transport infrastructures to extreme events has also been addressed by the working group, through the development of a methodology for risk analysis. Extreme events are defined here as not easy to anticipate, localized and with high impacts on transport infrastructures and system - networks deficiency or failure and then, environmental, societal and economical impacts. The methodology comprises three main stages:

- analysing past and future extreme climate events - intensity, occurrence and spatial distribution, to identify climate events that are likely to impact transport,

- analysing infrastructure vulnerabilities of extreme climate events to build impacts scenarios

- analysing system functional vulnerabilities - mobility devices, accessibility, access for rescue services - to identify consequences of network disruption.

#### O-2230-03

##### A review of adaptation practices in Europe and challenges ahead

###### A. Aparicio (1)

(1) European Environmental Agency / Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

This presentation makes a summary of recent adaptation initiatives in the transport sector in Europe, and discusses
the key challenges ahead, based on the recent report of the European Environment Agency (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/adaptation-of-transport-to-climate). The factual information collected was based on data available in the Climate-ADAPT information platform, a literature review, case studies provided by many stakeholders, and a questionnaire on transport and adaptation addressed to EEA member countries in 2013. A total of 23 countries answered this questionnaire. Although the results obtained reflect the perceptions of a limited number of respondents, they provide interesting insights and encourage further analysis and discussions.

The review of experiences in Europe shows that mainstreaming adaptation into regular transport planning, and into other policies and plans, is not yet common. For example, measures planned in the context of low carbon transport are often inter-modality offer but options for adapting transport to climate change but currently do not include it. Many tools developed for natural disaster risk management or contingency plans can easily be made relevant for climate change adaptation too. Meanwhile the adaptation focus is mostly on transport infrastructure, with little attention given so far to proof operations for future climate impacts.

Attention to adaptation remains relatively low in the transport agenda, particularly when compared to action in mitigation. Current action focuses on early, conceptual stages and less, so far, on implementation in spite of the urgent need to consider climate change impacts in those infrastructure investments being made now. Measures mostly follow a piecemeal and spontaneous approach, and are often organised autonomously by the different stakeholders. This fragmented approach is unlikely to be efficient or to guarantee the necessary consistency to address long-term challenges. Effective adaptation of the transport system requires moving from isolated and spontaneous adaptation to integrated, complementary and mutually supportive action of the many different stakeholders involved in and outside the sector.

Climate change mitigation is strongly influencing contemporary long-term visions on transport. Future transport systems (2050 and beyond) could be quite different from today's concepts: economic and social changes may alter current transport needs and transport generation patterns; technological and operational innovations may phase out currently dominant mobility solutions; governance reforms could provide more participatory and transparent decision making approaches, better balanced accessibility needs and environmental footprints. In such a dynamic environment, efforts focusing mainly in adapting today's transport systems to future changes in climate could result in dedicating resources to problems that may no longer remain a priority in the long-term future, when adaptation may actually be needed. Ironically, adaptation actions with a narrow approach on today's systems could jeopardize the transition towards low-carbon transport concepts. It cannot be taken for granted that the transport system in 30 years from now will basically remain the same we know today: in fact, influential actors, including many national governments and the European Union (e.g. in the 2011 White Paper on Transport) are actively pushing to achieve a low-carbon transport system in the long term.

Significant changes are expected within the coming years in the transport sector. These are the combined results of a number of inter-related causes of transport demand, changes in accessibility needs, and the implementation of innovative concepts. Although this long-term thinking has been largely influenced by climate change mitigation considerations, adaptation has largely been absent. Integrating adaptation objectives within these concepts could help to better identify the adequate policies, and could also help to properly assess and select the adequate adaptation actions to undertake in the short, medium and long term.

## O-2230-04

# Cross-border cooperation on adaptation strategies for roads in Europe

**M. Grauert (1)**

(1) CEDR, Copenhagen, Denmark

CEDR (Conference of Directors of Roads) is a European confederation of national road authorities (NRAs) that works on facilitating the exchange of experience

and information and to analyse and discuss all road-related issues, especially infrastructure, infrastructure management, traffic and transport, financing, legal and economic problems, safety, environment, and research in all of these areas.

Road directors of Europe (CEDR) are aware of the importance of improving European cooperation. This is a key element for making progress in the road and road transport sectors to strengthening the relationship with other modes of transport and with society at large.

Addressing climate change adaptation is becoming a very important task in CEDR, as road owners see the consequences of changes as an increasing matter. Cross-border cooperation in an appointed "Task group on climate change adaptation and mitigation" has become a valuable tool to facilitate National Road Administrations outline a strategy for adapting roads to climate change.

The strategy is centered on management, improvement, prevention and cooperation, and provides specific examples on areas to consider. These include examples of information to road users, incident management, implementation through planning phases, tools for risk analyses, legislative work, research and information sharing and many others.

Likewise, a template for an action plan is provided, giving examples on how to ensure responsibility and anchor climate change adaptation in the organization and create awareness in order to actually direct the organization towards a more climate-resilient profile.

The work of the CEDR-task group is a sound example in the context on how cross-border collaborations between NRA's can yield more than merely networking for enhanced means of climate change adaptation. A key outcome of the CEDR-work group on climate change is to provide a paradigm on composing a directly implementable strategy and action plan to every road organization, a plan which likewise will be applicable to other modes of transportation, e.g. railroads.

## O-2230-05

# Adaptations of road infrastructure to climate change - Selected examples from around the world (session 2230 - Transportation)

**T. Dubreucq (1)**

(1) Ifstar, Department for geotechnics, environment, natural hazards and earth sciences, Nantes, France

To adapt a road to a new and specific climate affecting one country, there is first need to investigate if it is observable elsewhere in the world. And owing to exchanges in the World Road Association, geotechnical engineers can determine rules to be taken to preserve the existing road network and the precautions to design a new road. We illustrate below some specific actions of five countries: Australia, Mexico, Morocco, Malaysia and South Korea.

Unsealed roads account for most of the roads linear in the world. To climate change, better maintenance is expected to ensure their durability. Australia has produced a guide for non-specialists which contains the technical maintenance of unpaved roads, in accessible terms. The guide introduces a wearing course instead of the surface layer of a paved road. Speed limits and maximum loads are indicated. A chapter is devoted to measuring the damage of unpaved roads by an original measure of dust which is produced in traffic. After the rain falls, barriers are put in place on the roads, for the drying time. The life service of Australian unpaved roads is thus to twenty years if the quality of building materials is respected and if the periodic road maintenance is followed (every three months in wet weather).

To repair the degradation of unpaved roads after the water floods, the Mexico Infrastructure Institute has also made large-scale projects to test new soil treatment products, mainly based geopolymer. Geosynthetics can also be associated.

In the South, Morocco faces at an increasing silting of its road network. All forms of silting are encountered, and decrease the road safety. An analysis about road network and actions over several decades has been conducted.
Unfortunately it appears that this natural phenomenon is complex, non structurable and difficult to model or control.

The practices in stormwater management on the roads in Malaysia are very interesting. Malaysia is a tropical country which receives up to 2.5 m of water mainly between November and February. The return period of rainfall follows the "Guidelines for the design of the road drainage» produced by the Department of Public Works and the Road Association of Malaysia. These recommendations are drawn from various repositories (AASHTO, British Standard, ...) but applied to local conditions. Malaysia has also dug in its capital Kuala Lumpur a tunnel of 9.7 km in length and 13.2 meters in diameter. The tunnel comprises a highway pavement in its upper half and a channel in its lower half. During thunderstorms, the entire tunnel can be flooded to drain all the water that flooded the city so far, of course after banning the traffic of vehicles.

South Korea has established for all its highways a national risk map and defined the types of landslides encountered. Torrential rains can reach more than 110 mm per hour. Global warming seems to cause an increase in the intensity of rainfall and mudslides and rocks on the slopes. Each highway drainage system (hydraulic structure, surface sanitation, drainage slopes, drainage trenches) has a return period well defined by geography (mountains, plains rivers). A drainage class and a flow rate calculation model are assigned to each portion of highway depending on the extent of the watershed. Drainage system are adopted. To prevent the solid thrust (blocks, uprooted trees), many dams have been built.

## O-2230-06

### Assessment of the impact of La Niña phenomenon over the infrastructure of transport in Santander-Colombia

**J. Gutierrez (1)**

(1) Universidad de Santander, Environmental Engineering, Bukaramanga, Colombia

Extreme meteorological events associated with climate change are a real issue and have important impact over the economy of infrastructure sector, including high ways, hydrocarbon transport by pipelines, mines, etc., because saturation of soils by water can produce landslides and it could produce the fracture of pipelines or other kind of tangible assets. For example, an assessment of historical geotechnical failures in Ecopetrol (Colombian Oil Company) vs. extreme meteorological events shows that during La Niña (extreme rainfall period) geotechnical failures are three times greater. This work shows a method to identify places of risk by extreme meteorological events, mainly La Niña phenomenon, with focus in most probably alteration of rainfall. Our results illustrate the hot spots where there is a high probability of slight excess (120-160% of average rainfall) and high excess (>160%) of average rainfall. The results have been intersected in a GIS with pipelines and highways with mass movement risk maps to identify the places of high risk along Santander region Colombia.

## 2230-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2230-01

#### Socio-technical transitions to low-carbon consumption: Developing markets for electric mobility

**J. Axsen (1)**

(1) Simon Fraser University, Schoole of Resource and Environmental Management, Burnaby, BC, Canada

Societal transitions to low-carbon consumption require substantial changes in technological development and consumer behavior. This study applies a socio-technical perspective to study transitions—assessing opportunities and obstacles that are political, technological and social, and how they develop and influence one another. The present focus is the deployment of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in Canada, a technology that is powered by electricity solely or in part. PEVs could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, which

currently accounts for 28 percent of Canada's emissions.

The goal of this research is to characterize Canada's readiness for a socio-technical transition to PEVs and informational and provincial GHG policy. Key uncertainties include Canadian consumers' awareness, perceptions, attitudes and values relating to PEV technology. Uncertain technical constraints include consumer driving patterns, access to PEV recharge infrastructure, and the GHG-intensity of electricity sources.

Data were collected via an in-depth, multi-part consumer survey completed by representative samples of vehicle buyers in Canada (n = 1,754), as well as electric vehicle owners in British Columbia (n = 112). Social readiness is assessed via questionnaire scales of awareness, attitudes, values and lifestyle. Consumers' technical readiness is assessed via a diary of driving behavior, and a questionnaire assessing home electrical infrastructure. Consumers' PEV design preferences were elicited via an innovative series of design exercises and discrete choice experiments. We then constructed regionally and temporally explicit models of PEV market penetration and use from disaggregated consumer data. These demand models are matched with provincial electricity generation data to estimate energy and GHG emissions impacts.

Results highlight opportunities and barriers for a transition to electric mobility. Opportunities includes findings that most car buyers already have access to some form of home based charging for these vehicles, and awareness of existing public charging infrastructure is not required to build consumer demand. Further, at least one-third want to buy some form of PEV under realistic price conditions, though patterns of preference, willingness-to-pay, and motivations differ substantially across segments of potentially early market buyers (as identified through latent class analysis).

Potential barriers include a broad lack of familiarity with PEV technology, and controversies about the true (lifecycle) environmental impacts of PEV usage. Most important is the role of strong climate policy, such as carbon pricing or regulations such as a Zero-Emissions Vehicle mandate (as implemented in California and several other U.S. states). Without such supply-focused policies in Canada, it is unlikely that a substantial transition to electric mobility will occur in the coming decades.

Knowledge of PEV impacts, readiness and policy priorities is highly variable to policymakers considering PEV deployment to meet GHG goals, as well as electric utilities, urban planners and automakers. These results also enhance knowledge regarding the social and technical challenges of low-carbon societal transitions.

### P-2230-02

#### Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Strategy in the Colombian Freight Transport Sector

**A. Cadena (1); R. Delgado (1); M. Espinosa (1); C. Garcia (2); C. Obando (2); F. Marquez (3); JM. Sandoval (4); R. Suarez (4)**

(1) Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia; (2) Unidad de Planeación Minera Energética, Bogotá, Colombia; (3) Ministerio de Transporte de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia; (4) Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

Colombia as other southern countries has undertaken a serious process for the statement of national post 2020 mitigation scenarios. We have identified and evaluated a package of more than 100 mitigation options by estimating abatement potential and costs. We have proposed sectorial mitigation plans finally adopted by government. A delightful dialogue process has been undertaken with a wide participation of industry, academy and government in order to get appealing and engaging mitigation scenarios and targets. Mitigations Actions Plans were adopted by government ministries.

This process was conducted under the Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy (CLCDS). The dialogue was part of the MAPS project (Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios), coordinated by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). Similar processes were adopted by the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios project in South Africa, as well as in the Low Carbon Strategies in Brazil, Chile, and Peru.
Commitments have been achieved in almost all sectors with modest but tangible results in agricultural, power energy, and industry sectors. Transportation of passengers and freight have shown huge difficulties to decouple their growth from energy use and emissions. Energy demand in Colombia was 1331 TJ in 2010 and transportation sector accounted for 38% of final energy demand. Total GHG emissions were 218 Mton CO2e and transportation sector accounted for 10,5% of total emissions.

Diesel and gasoline are the main fuels used in road transportation. Either fuels account for more than 85% of the total consumption in this sector. The National Energy Plans signals the importance of diversify the transportation basket (as well as the power generation one and the oil and gas sources). Due to national regulations, diesel and gasoline contain a percentage of biofuels (ethanol for gasoline and biodiesel for diesel). Compressed natural gas (CNG) was initially used only by public urban passenger transportation vehicles (taxi cabs and buses). In recent years there has been an increasing number of vehicle conversions (automobiles and small trucks) from gasoline to CNG due mainly to high oil prices. As a result, CNG consumption has increased. Right now the country has a huge availability of Liquefied Petroleum Gas and representatives of the industry are looking for opportunities to increase its participation in the transport business.

We discuss the following questions in this paper: Why Colombia should change its energy matrix in freight transportation? How we succeed in introducing microLNG, GLP biofuels and electricity in the energy basket? Could we introduce new vehicles and logistic technologies? Could Colombia made changes to taxi and rail transportation or airport? Will it be deferred by stakeholders, reluctant to new technologies and sinned in the comfort of current affairs? How likely appear in the 2050 energy and emissions scenarios these changes? What barriers we have to overcome to get a more efficient transport of freight and finally a more productive economy? Which organizations and what regulations we need to achieve the cleaner and diversified 2050 scenarios?

This kind of issue is culminating the analytical corridors in planning offices in Colombian think tanks and research centers. Colombia changed its main fuel for freight transportation from gasoline to diesel, from 1985 until 2000, following the global trends. Colombia has tried to scrupace the old trucks. Colombia has tried to foster cleaner fuels. Colombia has tried to renewed train and river. Little effects out of this strategies. One less unsuccessfull than others.

After measuring the benefits, co-benefits, implementation and transaction cost, sectorial and economy wide, we propose a bundle of recommendations to get the energy efficiency and mitigation goals we aimed to achieve. These recommendations are oriented to solve market coordination and government failures.

## P-2230-03

# Challenges and Opportunities in Climate Change Adaptation of Coastal Cities: Lessons in the Adaptation Road Maps of Metro Manila and Singapore

PM. Paje (1)

(1) University of Asia and the Pacific, Asia-Pacific Studies, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines

The Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities (2011) published by the World Bank considers a city resilient if it is able to respond quickly and effectively to climate change impacts. The same guide contends that a resilient city's adaptation strategies should be integrated into its own disaster risk reduction and sustainable development policies. To get the public engaged and committed to embrace the concept of adaptation however is fraught with difficulty. As Coleman, Offenheiser, and Waskov (2009) argue in the book Climate Change and Global Poverty: A Billion Lives in the Balance, the concept of adaptation is a tough one to sell and remains something incomprehensible to the public. How can one convince people to segregate and recycle garbage when most people find it convenient to just put all things inside one garbage bag and throwing it anywhere? How can state policymakers promote that walking is both a healthy activity for both humans and the environment when they themselves don't even take public

transportation? How can environment advocates teach that air conditioning is a source of CFCs when people congregate to the malls to take advantage of free air conditioning to escape the perennial tropical heat?

The road to climate change adaptation indeed is long and winding. Dessler and Parson (2010) consider climate change to go beyond the issue of the environment making it a serious and difficult matter to manage. But, as climate change poses inevitable challenges, it also offers opportunities in carbon trading through the Clean Development Mechanisms. This is the context that frames this policy analysis of the roadmaps of Metro Manila and Singapore in climate change adaptation towards their goals of becoming resilient cities in Southeast Asia. This analysis presents the challenges as well as the opportunities that these two coastal mega-cities in Southeast Asia have. The rate of a city's expansion in terms of territory and population is directly proportional to the increase in the risks it could face against climate change impacts especially if city residents are clueless about what possible hazards they are faced with. The surge of super typhoon Haiyan in 2013 mirrored in the storm surge devastation of Tacloban City in the Philippines has been a tragic remembrance of a worst-case scenario to date if and when the next bigger storm hits major metropolises. Most people in Tacloban prepared for the very strong winds but overlooked the enormous storm surges that did the worst damage. As cities are in themselves complexes, coastal cities are in a more precarious situation considering the millions of lives and resources that can be affected by the rise in sea-level and the threat of storm surges.

Adaptation of cities involves initiatives and measures whether formal or informal that leads to resilience against climate change impacts. Singapore is quite being an island city-state in itself. Metro Manila on the other hand is a microcosm of the nation-state it serves as a capital and major city. A glaring disparity exists between the two in terms of political regimes, economic and social development. In terms of climate change issues however, both cities have witnessed unusual flooding in the past five years. It is thus fitting in the context of climate change adaptation to examine the strategies that these coastal cities are undertaking how they address old environmental issues such as land use, energy conservation, and sustainable development to the emerging ones like E-waste disposals and Clean Development Mechanisms.

## P-2230-04

# A Study on Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Measures for the Hilly Road construction: Case of Nepal

N. Pokharel (1)

(1) Tribhuvan University, Environmental Science, Lalitpur, (1)

Nepal encompasses 85% of its land as hilly and mountainous area. Out of total 80,000 km road construction within the country only 18000km is with blacktopped. The steep slopes with fragile geology are quite being a characteristic of the hilly region. Geologically Nepal lies on Himalayan area with the mobility of Tibetan and Indian Plate. So the vulnerability seems higher. The Impacts of climate change focused on water resource. The Himalayas towers are the source of rivers and rivulets in the country. 6000 rivers and rivulets are flowing from north to south up to Gangas River in India. The road and transportation sector requires to grow and return periods for the floods and extreme rainfall. The trend of extreme events seems changing. To cope with such events and impacts it requires some techniques. The Climate change may cause more flooding of roads, bridges and airport runways, especially in low land areas as a result of erratic rains. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, increased redundancy of critical services, and operational improvements. Roads, bridges, tunnels and railway lines will be vulnerable to increased precipitation, groundwater levels, temperatures and winds.

The road transport sector is a key area that contributes to climate change by way of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the transport sector is in turn itself affected by climate change. Higher sector itself associated with extreme precipitation will mean an increased risk of landslides, excavated slopes. There is a risk that the bearing capacity of bridge and tunnel foundations,
supporting walls and sheet pilings will be reduced by increased groundwater levels. This can be found in number of ways, especially for foundations on sand. Modern safety installations are significantly more sensitive to temperature increases than older installations and this may presents a particular problem. Autonomous adaptation to climate change is important because of the complexity and long lifetime of road. Furthermore, improved maintenance in the form of cleaning existing road drainage systems and retain drainage capacity corresponding to that of a new installation.

Whilst, transport systems and infrastructure designed to withstand typical weather patterns, climate change impacts arising in the near and longer-term can have an impact on the efficiency of transport operations and ability of infrastructure to withstand extreme events.

The designs of project road have been done considering the potential effects of climate change. From a road development perspective in Nepal, impact of climate change mainly takes the form of concentrated high rainfall resulting in the accelerated surface run-off from slopes and increased flows in gullies, drainage channels, streams, and rivers. These phenomena have a consequent effect on the stability and performance of road sections, bridges, and other structures.

## P-2230-05

### Is electric mobility a driver to climate mitigation in the EU-27 countries? Myths and realities from energy systems analysis

J. Seixas (1); L Dias (1); S. Simões (1)

(1) Faculdade Ciências e Tecnologia - Univ Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal

In many research and policy fora, electric vehicles (EV) are considered effective alternatives to passenger mobility due to their contribution to CO2 mitigation, when compared with internal combustion engines, mainly if the power comes from renewables. Recent research [1] showed that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. Vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

A bottom-up partial equilibrium 36 multi-region model (PET36) representing these countries' energy systems linked through trade of the main energy forms was

used. PET36 is driven by exogenous country-specific energy services demand, and it takes into consideration the evolution of energy prices, endogenous energy potentials and policy assumptions. Its main output is the cost-effectiveness mix of energy supply and demand technologies for the seven sectors: primary energy supply (e.g., oil and bio refineries, natural gas distribution pipelines), electricity and heat generation, industry, residential, commercial, agriculture and transport. This model allows us to get in-depth insights on the energy system transformation of each EU-27 country to deliver cost-effective BEVs for passenger mobility up to 2050. We use two families of scenarios, shaped by varied EU level emission caps and BEVs cost curve.

Our presentation relies on results just published [1] and goes a step further, focusing on:

* (a) confront the national plans of each EU country on EV adoption with current status (actual deployment) and the results from our analysis, aiming to discuss the expectations and failures of electric mobility deployment in each EU country and the current and future role of public policy to overcome current barriers and risks;

* (b) assessing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in each EU country due to adoption of BEVs and PHEVs taking into account the whole energy system, i.e., not only the shift from internal engine combustion to electric engines, but also the shift in the power sector and refineries. The goal is to discuss the impact of electric mobility policy measures on the transformation of energy system, including trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks.

We argue that the energy system analysis used in this research is the appropriate approach to discuss the impact of mitigation policies. Across Europe, as well as in other regions, electric vehicles are seen, both by climate policy makers and car markets, as a panacea for the mitigation of a significant share (up to 40%) of greenhouse gas emissions. However, detailed analysis at EU member state level shows that the adoption of this technology is far from expectations due to vehicle costs, charging constraints and the mobility model still in place based on individual ownership. We argue that radical mitigation in Europe will rely in electric mobility (including trucks) but there is the need to look across the whole energy system, to prevent risks and undesired feedbacks (e.g. increase of new fossil based power plants) and to expand co-benefits (energy efficiency and foreign oil dependency). Policy initiatives must be designed to make EVs' cost evolution cheaper for consumers than what is currently expected, while looking at risks of such path.

[1] SeixasJ., S.Simões, L.Dias, A.Kanudia, P.Fortes, M.Gargiulo (2015) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in EU countries using integrated modeling, Energy Policy, 80, 165-176.

## 2231 - Cultural Heritage facing up to Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Pollution

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### O-2231-01

#### Creation and evaluation of future indoor climate and risk maps for European cultural heritage buildings and their interior

M. Winkler (1); F. Antretter, (1); R. Kilian, (2); J. Leissner (3)

(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Valley, Germany; (2) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, German Heritage Reserach, Valley, Germany; (3) Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung, Brussels, Belgium

In the EU-funded Climate for Culture (CfC) project, an interdisciplinary research team of 27 partners investigated the impact of climate change on Europe's cultural heritage buildings and their interior collections. Thereby regional climate models and building simulation tools were coupled to assess the outdoor and indoor implications. Two different

climatic scenarios, A1B and RCP 4.5, from the 4th and 5th IPCC-report were used as baseline for the projection of future outdoor climate data. The regional climate model REMO was applied for high-resolution simulations of outdoor climate over Europe and the Mediterranean for both climatic scenarios. These calculated climate indices were used as input for hygrothermal building simulation tools allowing a prediction of future indoor climate and its risk potential to interior objects.

To investigate the long-term impact of climate change on a variety of historic buildings the CfC project used the so-called "Generic Sacred Buildings": 16 fictitious but representative building models of unconditioned buildings like churches or monasteries, which are based on measurements of existing buildings collected during the CfC project. These Generic Sacred Buildings were placed on 474 locations all over Europe and the Mediterranean and building simulation tools were applied to simulate indoor climate for three time-windows: 1960 - 1990, 2020 - 2050 and 2070 - 2100. Afterwards, each indoor climate, in particular temperature and relative humidity, was evaluated by using a newly developed automated method which assesses nearly 200 parameters, like for example
temperature, relative humidity, deterioration rates or various damage risks. All results of this assessment process were collected and visualised as pan-European maps. Also the differences between the three time-windows were calculated for every parameter allowing the identification of changes from past to future periods.

Because of the sheer amount of available data, more than 52,000 maps were produced, the here presented evaluation of future indoor climate projections focuses on some selected parameters. A common insight from the maps is that mean indoor temperature will increase all over Europe for all investigated building types. As a result of the temperature development, freezing time inside the buildings decreases, mostly in Northern and Eastern Europe. An often incurred damage process is mould growth on collection objects. The maps hint, that mainly in northern and southern parts of the world mould growth will increase in future periods. Furthermore insect growth conditions inside the buildings were evaluated by calculating degree-days. Favourable growth conditions can be found around the Mediterranean and with increasing temperature in future time-windows these will also increase in Northern and mostly in the middle parts of Europe. The assessments also include risks for mechanical damages of wooden objects like panel paintings, statues or furniture. These damage risks were evaluated by analysing long- and short-term changes in relative humidity and show mostly a stable risk classification during the time-windows. Also chemical degradation processes were evaluated by using Lifetime-Multipliers. They indicate increasing damage risks mostly around the Mediterranean.

O-2231-02

## Long-term damage of climate and pollution on the stone and glass in Paris

GA. Lefèvre (1) ; P. Brimblecombe (2) ; M. Déqué (3) ; C. Grossi (4) ; A. Ionescu (5)

(1) Université Paris-Est Créteil, LISA, Paris, France; (2) City University of Hong Kong, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong; (3) Méto France - CNRS, Centre national de recherches météorologiques, Toulouse, France;

(4) University of East Anglia, School of environmental sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (5) Université Paris-Est Créteil, Certes, Créteil, France

The urban fabric is affected by both climate and air pollution, but the magnitude of their impact varies over time. The effects of air pollution on the degradation and soiling of materials were particularly noticeable during periods of rapid urbanization, while the late 20th century has seen a reduction as a result of the decline in the aggressive pollutants such as sulphur dioxide. Soiling is more complex as there have been changes in the nature of the deposited particles over time, but as with the gaseous pollutants there have been improvements that accompanied more stringent regulations designed to improve air quality. Over the centuries there has been an increase and subsequent decrease in the rate of damage to building materials which can be interpreted in terms of the environmental Kuznets curve. The decline in the aggressiveness of pollutants in Paris makes it likely that climate driven processes will on balance play a major role in the future. Historically frost damage was important, but it is hardly likely to be relevant in a warmer future. This presentation attempts to estimate the rates of recession and soiling of calcareous stone and damage to glass and stained glass in Paris over many hundreds of years and understand how these processes will change through to the end of the 21st century. The long term variation of air pollution is assessed on the basis of past observations and estimated for the future from likely regulatory trends. Meteorological input derives from historical data and some non-instrumental weather records, while future climate is adapted from the Hadley Centre and Méto-France models under az, RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Converting this environmental input to long term change in damage has used dose-response functions from a range of sources to estimate the magnitude of the changes and where possible compare these with historical observations of the state of buildings made by architects and other observers.

O-2231-03

## Quantitative Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Profiling and Diffusivity on Fluorinated Compounds to Preserve Cultural Heritage Porous Media and Safe for the Environment

L Brizi (1) ; M. Camaiti, (2) ; P. Fantazzini, (1)

(1) Centro Fermi, Roma, Italy, University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bologna, Italy;

(2) Centro Fermi, Roma, Italy, National Research Council, Institute for geosciences and hearth resources, Florence, Italy

The preservation of historical buildings and outdoor cultural heritage is a necessity to hand down to the posterity works of art, as well as to guaranty an economic resource. The main causes of degradation of stones, one of the most important porous materials of these artifacts, are related to the chemical-physical processes that influence the ingress and diffusion of water (liquid or vapor) into the pore space. It is well known that water dissolves CO2 and pollutants from the atmosphere, causing acidic corrosion of the stone or the binder, and it is responsible of internal mechanical stresses due to freezing-thawing cycles or salt crystallization.

For the treatments usually hydrophobic compounds (typically synthetic polymers) are applied, with performance (efficiency and durability) that depends on the compounds used, the treatment procedure and the chemical-mineralogical nature of the substrate. Many are the characteristics of the products to guaranty good performance: high stability (chemical, thermal and to photo-oxidation), high adhesion to the mineral substrate (interaction but not reaction with stone), low surface tension and suitable interaction with organic and inorganic groups, were developed. Unfortunately, these compounds are soluble only in CFC and in supercritical CO2, therefore their use as protective agents for historical stone artifacts was abandoned since the 1995.

This work was focused on the preparation of a new protective agent with low average molecular weight containing phosphorus and/or boron segments linked to an oligosuccinamide chain in order to achieve: (i) high hydrophobic effect and photo-stability, (ii) good adhesion to the rock through the polar amidic groups, (iii) excellent distribution on the pore walls surface without their blockage, (iv) solubility in environmental friendly solvents.

Hydrophobic penetration and distribution properties of the compound applied on a biocalcarenite (Lecce stone), have been investigated by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Imaging, Profiling and Diffusometry of 1H nuclei, and compared with a perfluorinated commercial product. These NMR techniques have been proved to be a valid non-destructive and non-invasive technique for monitoring the conservation state and water absorption in materials and objects of interest to cultural heritage, as well as for evaluating the efficiency and distribution of protective or consolidation treatments.

The results obtained by Imaging were compared with those obtained by single-sided NMR apparatus. This last instrument, that allows for in situ non-destructive analyses, was equipped with a lift for automatic shift of the NMR sensor and allowed us to obtain high spatial resolution profiles of the NMR signal inside the samples. Two-dimensional correlations maps of the two parameters self-diffusion coefficient and NMR relaxation time gave further information on the performance of the treatments. The results demonstrate that the partially fluorinated oligoamide satisfies the main properties required to a protective agent (no color changes of the treated surface, high residual permeability and high photo-oxidation stability), and improves the water repellency of treated stone surfaces in respect to a fluoroelastomer, frequently applied as protective agent and here used as reference.
# Urban planning and design to mitigate climate change impact: the role of heritage conservation in a dense urban city

EHK. Yung (1)

(1) The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong, China

Climate change and global warming has made urban heat island effects become more severe in cities facing rapid urbanization. The urban heat island phenomenon is even more severe in urban cities with the tall and massive high-rise building morphology. In contrast, built heritage sites consist usually of low rise buildings located in city centres. The conservation and adaptive reuse of historic buildings can provide potential breathing space among the high rise blocks to generate air paths and minimize the heat island effect. Thus, the careful planning and design of heritage sites can enhance human thermal comfort and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in dense urban cities, whilst preserving historic pride and cultural spot.

Climate change also alters the way that people live, work, worship or socialize in public space. What role can built heritage play in minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on the microclimate of the urban environment? Conservation and Planning considerations should emphasize the role of heritage sites in urban districts which can provide much greater impact on the overall urban environment than a single building.

This paper explores the relationship between climate change mitigation and built heritage conservation in a dense urban city.

It is proposed that a robust database of spatial maps will be constructed, of an urban districts in Hong Kong with the aid of GIS. The study maps will display the urban fabric including the locations of heritage sites, building height and mass, building footprint, land use, open space, and topography. Micro-climate environmental maps which include temperature, and wind velocity will also be compiled. Field measurements of the meteorological parameters at the selected studied heritage sites will provide supplementary data for the spatial maps.

Despite the robust maps and measurement are important, the ways in which conservation of heritage buildings can influence the social experience of adapting to climate change would be worth for investigation. The impact of climate change should not be limited to physical and environmental impacts, in fact, the socio-economic changes due to climate change will have also have a great impact on the conservation of cultural heritage. On one hand, climate change alters the ways that people, in relation to the environment they live, work, worship and socialize in buildings, sites and landscapes with heritage values. For example climate change modifies the social interaction patterns in public spaces. On the other hand, heritage can also affect the social experience of climate change. Heritage conservation can have a positive effect on the lives of people in a changing climate and how they perceive climate change. For example, a green common space in a heritage site can provide the community with a pleasant breathing space in the middle of high rise buildings.

Thus, it is of paramount importance to examine the extent to which the adaptive reuse of heritage buildings can also incorporate design considerations which mitigate the physical and social effects of climate change. This proposed research will help towards responsive and innovative solutions to the UHI effects and climate change with the conservation and reuse of heritage buildings. A better understanding of the links between built heritage, urban morphology and the surrounding microclimate is essential to create successful climate change mitigation strategies for dense cities.

The study will provide useful reference data for urban planners and urban designers helping them to incorporate environmental and social considerations on the conservation of heritage buildings, and most importantly, help to ensure the better use of heritage sites to mitigate climate change adverse impacts in dense urban cities.

# Towards a Framework for Evaluating Existing International Best Practices on Climate Change and Heritage

A. Potts (1)

(1) International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS), United States National Committee, Washington, DC, United States of America

This presentation examines the response of the heritage sector to climate change with an emphasis on the key themes and theoretical frameworks that have been adopted by major organizations to date. It finds that a formal concern for the impact of climate change on heritage sites is increasingly being complemented by a broader concern for the impacts on social sustainability from the degradation of intangible heritage and "a sense of place" attendant to climate change. Attention is also increasingly being paid to the ways in which cultural heritage can be used to promote the sustainable offering lessons in past human successes and failures in adapting to environmental changes, and providing insight into the origins of the modern climatic situation.

It has now been almost a full decade since the issue of the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural heritage properties was formally brought to the attention of the World Heritage Committee. This resulted in an expert meeting in March, 2006 at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris which issued a joint report on "Predicting and Managing the Effects of climate change on World Heritage" as well as a "Strategy to Assist States Parties to the Convention to Implement Comprehensive Management Responses." The World Heritage Committee endorsed these two documents at its 30th session (Vilnius, 2006) and requested all States Parties to implement the strategy so as to protect the outstanding universal values, integrity and authenticity of the World Heritage properties from the adverse impacts of climate change. In 2007 climate change and heritage experts, including ICOMOS, issued a Policy Document on the Impacts of Climate Change on World Heritage Properties which among other things identified future research needs. Broadly speaking these documents provide guidance on (1) Monitoring and reporting; (2) Mitigation; (3) "Corrective actions" including management, adaptation and risk management and (4) Collaboration, cooperation, and sharing best practices and knowledge.

As the world approaches the 10th anniversary of these reports, this presentation would examine the climate change strategies from major cultural heritage organizations around the world, using the 2006 and 2007 guidance documents as touchstones. Two examples of these heritage responses are those of the United States National Park Service (NPS) and the International Trust Organization (INTO).

INTO represents national heritage trust organizations in over 40 countries and has been represented at 4 of the last 6 COPs. INTO views climate change through the lens of the Victoria Declaration on the Implications for Cultural Sustainability of Climate Change which was adopted by INTO at its 14th International Conference of National Trusts held in 2011. The Victoria Declaration focuses on the capacity of climate change to undermine the integrity of the world's cultures, and the resulting social dislocation and social instability likely to follow, framing these issues in terms of intergenerational equity.

The NPS is the lead US federal agency for the management of cultural heritage. In 2014, it signed a policy memo Climate Change and the Stewardship of Cultural Resources, which set out a leadership role that looks at both the impacts of climate change on heritage and the capacity to learn from these over time, and applies those to the four pillars of climate change response that NPS established in its 2010 Climate Change Response Strategy: science, adaptation, mitigation, and communication. While focusing on impacts the Policy includes the risk assessment of learning from cultural heritage about climate and environmental change, for example, learning about human adaptation to climatic variability through time from cultural heritage and learning from heritage to reacquaint ourselves with energy-saving practices and methods that have become less used.
# Multi-Criteria Accuracy Assessment for Indoor Climate Change Projections of Historic Buildings

R. Kilian, (1); H. Brandl, (2); F. Antretter, (3); M. Krus (3); K. Sedlbauer, (4)

(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Cultural heritage research, Holzkirchen, Germany; (2) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Preventive conservation and heritage preservation, Holzkirchen, Germany; (3) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Hygrothermal building analysis, Holzkirchen, Germany; (4) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Director, Holzkirchen, Germany

Recently hygrothermal building simulation has been applied for the projection of damage risks from future indoor climate in historic buildings. This has been done using generic weather data obtained from dynamic downscaling of regional models with different global climate change scenarios (A1B and RCP4.5). The objective of this paper is the development and definition of new concepts to assess the accuracy of hygrothermal simulation models for indoor climate of historic buildings in the contexts of climate change and preventive conservation. Preventive conservation is aimed at the permanent conservation of works of art and objects of cultural value by improving ambient conditions and by reducing or minimizing relevant risks. The quality of simulations is of significant importance especially when assessing climatic risks in historic buildings with precious interior and works of art, since misjudgements of planned measures can result in irreversible damages. Moreover, hygrothermal conservation is a complex and uncertain process in calculating the effect of different measures to improve indoor climate. But also for the assessment of future risk it is important to know how reliable a simulation model is for the present. Therefore, it is important to develop criteria to assess the results of simulation with regard to preventive conservation, and to verify them by means of case studies. The indoor climate of the small village church St. Margarettha in Bavaria is characterized in detail by means of measured data and produced by means of simulation models. For this case study a new approach was developed using multiple criteria in the form of different damage functions for accuracy assessment. This assessment is only one important element in the chain of uncertainties that applies when using projected future climate data from global climate change projections. Therefore also the measured long-term outdoor climate from a weather station nearby has also been compared to the generic weather data for the recent past (1960–1990) for different climate change

# The balance of air pollution and climate as drivers of damage to heritage

P. Briblecombe, (1)

(1) City University of Hong Kong, School of energy and environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong

It has been well known from classical times that weather and smoke cumulatively damage buildings. The shifting climates of the past had an impact and historic exposure to aggressive air pollutants, especially those from coal which caused not only blackening, but led to surface recession and crust formation that resulted from high sulfur dioxide concentrations. The situation has changed as air pollution is more effectively regulated. Our understanding of the impact of climate on heritage assets requires the development of material or heritage climatologies that recognise the role of the combination of meteorological factors, cycles of climate and the long accumulation of damage. Although controversy surrounds long-term climate predictions, there seems little doubt that the world will become warmer and rainfall patterns will change, even if we cannot be sure of the magnitude. The changes are often quite small, just a few degrees change in temperature or percentage changes in rainfall or relative humidity. This means amplification is often necessary for the effects to be significant. Phase changes (freezing or salt crystallisation) can be important amplifiers, while biological effects (changing insect numbers or rapid fungal growth) can also enhance the outcomes from small temperature changes.

The impact of changed rainfall can be increased by a larger number of wet days or longer times of wetness. The frequency of extreme events may also alter the rate of material damage. Air pollutants will doubtless be more regulated in the future, but new problems may arise through the presence of ozone and diesel particles in the air and novel pollutants might also have an impact.

# Socio-cultural implications of Climate Change for Cultural Heritage

M. Cassar (1)

(1) University College London, UCL Institute for Sustainable Heritage, London, United Kingdom

When considering the interaction between cultural heritage and climate change, the most media-visible effort on climate change is undoubtedly scientific research. Yet society requires science to have wider context and meaning. It needs to be relevant. Therefore the socio-cultural impact of climate change must be part of any discourse on the implications of climate change for cultural heritage.

Not only would this inform our understanding and influence our response to climate change impacts, it can also make our response more resilient and sustainable. There are inherent cultural and social dimensions to climate change. Artists and sculptors, writers and poets, performances and exhibitions engage the public with climate change in ways that are necessary and important. They provide critical pathways for adaptation. The arts and humanities, social sciences and economic disciplines provide different lenses through which to develop new responses to life-changing events. By developing a range of perspectives, we improve our chances of co-creating sustainable survival strategies.

Cultural heritage research until recently, has been largely concerned with the impact on ancient and historic materials and assemblies such as those caused by increasing sea levels and floods, changes in the moisture contents of the air and in the conditions of soil (especially for archaeological sites) and migration of pests. Yet cultural heritage is more than stones, bricks and mortars.

In addition to these impacts, climate change can severely affect the sustainable conservation of cultural heritage places by altering the traditional way of life of communities. The relationship of communities to their landscape, their work and social habits, can be affected by the rapid deterioration of physical assets and loss of authenticity[i].

In 2008, World Monuments Watch and the World Monuments Fund provided dramatic evidence of these consequences when it listed a number of places at high risk of loss due to the effects of climate change. These included:

Herschel Island, Canada (from rising sea levels, eroding coastline and melting permafrost);

Scott's Hut and the Explorer's Heritage, Antarctica (from warming triggering large amounts of precipitation leading to microbial infestation and decay);

Sonaghaon-Panam City, Bangladesh (from the low-lying terrain making it especially vulnerable to flooding and rising sea levels);

Leh Old Town, India (from changing weather patterns in the Himalaya bringing more rain in the summer thus creating problems for the flat mud roofs designed for the originally dry climate);

Kilwa Historic Sites, Tanzania (from serious rapid deterioration of the archaeological and monumental heritage due to erosion and vegetation caused by rainwater wash accentuating the risks of collapse of the remaining structures on the edge of the cliff); and

Chinguetti Mosque, Mauritania (from effects of the expanding desert, changing rainfall patterns, vegetation loss, soil erosion and extreme temperatures).

If scientific research is to understand deeply the cause and effect of change on cultural materials, and if it is to develop sustainable adaptation strategies, the values associated with these places need to be integral to the solution. This
contribution will focus primarily on the language that is used to highlight the significance of these endangered sites in order to evaluate the extent to which the socio-cultural impacts of climate change are integrated into scientific studies of cultural heritage.

[i] UNESCO World Heritage Centre (2006) World Heritage Paper No. 22. page 10. Available at: http://whc.unesco.org/en/climatechange/ and published in English and French.

## O-2231-09

### Protecting coastal heritage from coastal rapid events: Epistomological issues

**H. Regnauld (1)**

(1) Université de Rennes 2 et Institut Universitaire de France, Laboratoire costel, umr letg, Rennes, France

Coastal heritage is comprised of many different types of artefacts. Some of them are located along the coast but have no direct relation with the sea (such as tombs, stones circles). Others (for example harbours, fisheries, dykes, windmills) do present a deep relation with the sea level, the wave directions, the local winds and possibly with sediment movements. The first group of heritage site may, today, be concerned by relative sea level rise and/or coastal retreat and beg for a protection. Though these archaeological objects may be moved inland and still keep most of their scientific value and cultural interest. In this case their landward shift and protection is not very different from their possible inclusion into a museum collection.

The other set of heritage sites is totally different. Most of their scientific value depends on their precise relation with the "natural" environment at the moment of their building. As objects but they can be reconstructed and stored in a museum but as a site they cannot be understood outside of the very precise geomorphological setting where they were built. In these two cases the epistomological issues are clearly different. Though a large part of the scientific value is located inside of the object itself (it is a real property of the object, as realists philosophers have often explained it) some other dimension of the scientific knowledge is not in the object but in the relation it has with the local passed environment, and especially with the local ancient morphodynamic condition. Therefore what should be protected (or reconstructed) should not only be in the past but the natural ancient environment (the local site when sea level was different) and the ancient events which may have taken place such as storms or human induced soil erosion. The context of the object is as important as the object itself. This rises new questions about heritage and cultural approaches of heritage conservation. How can climatic events be understood as heritage ? How can ancient events induced erosion processes may be included into the wide and general notion of heritage? Our scientific knowledge about ancient processes is limited and new dating techniques regularly appear and help to produce new information. So there is an always wider range of objects which can be dated : with Pb 210 muds may be dated even when they do not contain organics. The question of how large is the accommodation space around the artefact is totally opened: how far from the object may the environment provide relevant information? How far should the protected area be extended? Is this protected space compatible with other activities on the coast?

This speech present some pre roman examples in Brittany and some post cold war examples in Taiwan.

## O-2231-10

### Outdoor-Indoor climate relationships for Cultural Heritage

D. Camuffo (1); J. Leissner (2); C. Bertolin (3); F. Antretter (4); M. Winkler (4); L. Kotova (5); U. Mikolajewicz (6); A. Van Schijndel (7); H. Schellen (8); T. Brostrom (9); G. Leijonhufvud (10); J. Ashley-Smith (11); Jacob (12) (1) Consigliato Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto Scienze del clima e del atmosfera, Padua, Italy; (2) Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung, Brussels, Belgium; (3) Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) - Italian National Research Council (CNR), Padova, Italy; (4) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Hygrothermal building analysis, Valley, Germany; (5) Climate Service Center 2.0, Helmholtz center

geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany; (6) Max Planck, Institute fur meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany; (7) Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands; (8) Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands; (9) Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden; (10) Uppsala University, Department of art history, Uppsala, Sweden; (11) JAS, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (12) HZG/ Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany

Not only historical buildings and outdoor monuments are exposed to climate changes and related risks. The exchanges of air, heat and moisture through the building envelopes will affect the indoor climate too, with potential risks to collections, paintings, furniture etc. The potential impact of mechanical, chemical and biological agents will depend on the outdoor climate change, the building structure and the material type. In order to know the expected changes and assess risk factors, the EU funded «Climate for Culture» Project has investigated the problem and produced thematic maps over Europe, using the REMO regional climate model at 10 km × 10 km space resolution. Two moderate IPCC emission scenarios have been considered: A1B and RCP 4.5. The former to make comparisons with previous studies easier; the latter as updated reference. The situation has been calculated for two future time windows, i.e.: 2021-2050 near future and 2071-2100 far future. Changes have been highlighted calculating and mapping the difference between each future map and the related situation in the 1961-1990 past reference period.

The first step has been to calculate the outdoor climate (e.g. precipitation, dryness, temperature, humidity, time of wetness, repeated freezing thawing, salt crystallization cycles), then the indoor climate and finally the potential damage and risk factors. To this aim, it has been necessary to assess the changes of the climate. Changes have been identified through an improvement of the prediction models; then to develop a methodology to assess the climate-induced risks on materials and building envelopes. The study has been based on some 120 case studies plus 16 classes of generic building types, each class being characterized by a different building volume (small/large), structure (heavy/ light weight), moisture buffering performance (low/high) and window area (small/large). A number of key materials (i.e. stone and masonry, metals, wood and veneers, painted wood, paper, silk and colour photographs) have been considered, either because they are commonly used in this field, or for the potential risk that may derive under certain unfavourable circumstances. The relevance of deterioration mechanisms and the risk factors have been calculated using specific damage functions, either known in literature or tested in laboratory within this Project. Damage functions and/or thresholds link the changes of the climate variables to a specific risk of damage. The level of risk has been defined according to the number of events that have exceeded some specific thresholds, or the time elapsed above them. A traffic light code (i.e. green colour: safe; orange colour: attention; red colour: risk) has been used to express the risk levels. At the end, a total of 55,650 high-resolution thematic maps over Europe have been produced.

The uncertainties related to the project outcomes include the uncertainty band in risk maps, forcing conditions and the used climate model, significance of the climate change pattern, building simulation, damage functions. The above uncertainties have been analysed to assess the confidence limits of the future scenarios that should be considered in view of any decision support/making system. In this context, the focus is on cultural heritage conservation, some outcomes might be useful for other social application fields, e.g. temperature changes and increased number of tropical days may be related to health, cultural tourism and energy consumption; mould growth and pest infestation to sick buildings. The recovery of early instrumental observations and various proxies has also been considered to produce long-term urban outdoor and indoor historic climate series (e.g. 1500-today), or to reconstruct the sea level in Venice (1200-today). This has been useful to improve understanding and to refine future simulations.

The analysis of the results shows that climate change may have negative, neutral or positive effects (e.g. faster or slower deterioration rates, more or less need for heating, cooling or humidifying) depending on specific problems of climate change. These results offer a timely information to prepare adaption and mitigation strategies, or to take advantage from the positive aspects, when possible. In this sense, this project provides an informative tool aimed to assist policy makers, conservators, architects and other users, in view
## The Climate for Culture outcomes as tool for energy planning strategies and preventive conservation against mould, pests and other challenges in the Alpine region

C. Bertolin (1); D. Camuffo (2); F. Antretter, (3); M. Winkler (1); L. Kotova (4); D. Jacob (5); A. Van Schijndel (6); H. Schellen (7); T. Vyhlidal (8); T. Broström (9); R. Kilian, (10) (1); J. Leissner (11)

(1) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di scienza dell'atmosfera e del clima, Padua, Italy; (2) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di scienza dell'atmosfera e del clima, Padua, Italy; (3) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Hygrothermal building analysis, Valley, Germany; (4) Climate Service Center 2.0, Helmholtz center geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany; (5) HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany; (6) Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands; (7) Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands; (8) Czech Technical University, Prague, Czech Republic; (9) Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden; (10) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Kulturherbforschung, Valley, Germany; (11) Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung, Brussels, Belgium

In the times of climate change, a global imperative is to save energy and reduce our carbon footprint. Museums and other cultural institutions are deeply implicated in these concerns as major consumers of energy, particularly heating and ventilation systems often housed in modern buildings. The demand for a better understanding of the interactions between cultural heritage collections and the climate and future perspective of energy consumption are pressing. The current state of knowledge highlights the need to develop strategies for protection and adaptation which requires specific risk assessment not only in the short but in medium and long term. Above all such risk assessment shall be focused on the correspondent building type and geographic location of the end user to provide a solid support in planning target interventions in terms of lower energy consumption and cultural heritage protection.

This intervention exploits and analyzes the data developed within the EU-funded research project Climate for Culture (CfC) (www.climatforculture.eu) active 2009-2014 to assess, in the Alpine region, the future energy consumptions of HVAC systems as well as the specific risks of mould, pest infestation and freezing-thawing cycles looking at several building types different in level of control, quality of envelope, windowed area, thickness and construction materials.

The CfC project, over the past five years, has investigated the influence of current and future climate change on cultural heritage objects [Kilian et al. 2013; Leissner et al. 2013 and 2014]. This large scale EU research project has now made available for a wide community of stakeholders scientific knowledge, technological innovation and new data concerning future indoor projections of thermohygrometric variables and HVAC energy consumption from regional climate models in a range of generic and exemplary buildings. In particular the data which generate the Climate for Culture maps, supported by other CfC outcomes as recommendations to minimize energy consumption, preservation strategies and the exDSD software for implementing the decision support system, provide unique and useful tools for helping stakeholder in planning energy saving and preventive conservation intervention strategies in their area of interest in advance.

The purpose of this work is to create an exemplary data analysis focused on the Alpine region, to help final users in exploiting CfC results as tool to assess in which extension the impact of the ongoing climate change will affect a specific geographic area over the near (2021-2050) and the far future (2071-2100). The results will be analyzed in term of energy saving and risk management strategies.

### References:

R. Kilian, T. Broström, J. Ashley-Smith, H.L. Schellen, M.

Martens, F. Antretter, M. Winkler, C. Bertolin, D. Camuffo, and J. Leissner 2013 "The CLIMATE FOR CULTURE Method for assessing future risks resulting from the Indoor Climate in Historic Buildings". In: Alexandra Troi and Elena Lucchi (Eds.). ISBN 978-88-837026-8, Cultural Heritage Preservation - EWCHP 2013 - Proceedings of the 3 European Workshop on Cultural Heritage Preservation. Bolzano, Italy - 16-18 September 2013

J. Leissner, R. Kilian, F. Antretter, Z. Huijbregts, H. Schellen, J. van Schijndel 2013. "Impact of climate change on historic buildings and future energy demand by using whole building simulation tools" in Implementing sustainability - barriers and chances. Book of full papers: April 24 - 26, 2013; SB 13 Munich Hauser, Gerd (Ed.); Lützkendorf, Thomas (Ed.); Essig, Natalie (Ed.); Stuttgart, Fraunhofer IBP Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-81679892-6 (E-Book), p.1134-1143.

J. Leissner, R. Kilian, C. Fuhrmann, F. Antretter, T. Naumovic, K. Häfner and K. Janis 2014. «Wie der Klimawandel die Königsschöller bedroht - Ergebnisse des europäischen Forschungsprojekts Climate for Culture»AVISO (Zeitschrift für Wissenschaft und Kunst in Bayern) Volume 2, 2014, p. 36-39.

## Present and future salt climatology in France

B. Menéndez (1)

(1) Université de Cergy-Pontoise, Géosciences et Environnement Cergy, Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France

Following the concept of "salt climatology" introduced by Grossi et al. (2011) which deals with the knowledge of environmental parameters conditioning salt weathering of cultural built heritage, our objective in this work is to compare the spatial salt weathering distribution in France in the near past (1971-2000) to the one predicted in the future (2071-2100).

To quantify salt damage, different methods are used depending on the salt type. For some salts the number of phase transitions is estimated from meteorological data, temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). For other salts the damage is estimated just from the environmental conditions. In this study we took into account three different salts: Sodium Chloride, Sodium Sulphate and Calcium Sulphate. For NaCl we estimate the number of times salt can crystallise from a solution. To do that we consider the number of times that daily relative humidity crosses the deliquescence value of 75.3%, from RH higher than 75.3% to RH lower than 75.3%, and for temperatures above 0°C. To estimate the weathering produced by Na2SO4 we count the number of times the equilibrium line between theandrite and mirabilite has been crossed in the phase diagram temperature - relative humidity. On this phase diagram we assume that the line separating theandrite and mirabilite domains is a straight line for the temperature range between 0 and 35'. For gypsum, it is assumed that when relative humidity is higher than 80%, gypsum will precipitate on the inner part of the rock inducing important damage, whereas it will precipitate on the surface when relative humidity is lower than 80%, with less damage associated. Therefore the number of days with relative humidity higher than 80% has been considered as an estimator of gypsum weathering. In this way we calculate the number of transitions of Sodium Chloride and Sodium Sulphate and the number of days with RH higher than 80% for two locations in the North-West of France, Rouen and Caen.

To estimate salt weathering distribution in France we use the methodology presented in Grossi et al. (2011). To obtain a "single way to estimate salt damage in different locations, we plotted the number of monthly salt transitions calculated for the period 1960-2008 in Caen and Rouen data as a function of the difference between mean relative humidity and the equilibrium relative humidity for each salt. For sodium chloride the relative humidity equilibrium is equal to 75.3% and it is independent of temperature, in the range 0 to 40°C. For sodium sulphate we obtain the equilibrium relative humidity for each temperature from the phase diagram. For calcium sulphate we consider the 80% relative humidity threshold. By a regression fit of this plot we can associate a number of monthly transitions to the mean relative humidity for the month by a polynomial function. This methodology allows estimating the salt damage from simple data as the mean monthly relative humidity.
We estimate the salt weathering in 44 locations uniformly distributed in France, applying the obtained regression to meteorological data from 44 stations and to future model data at the same locations obtained from climate models. All the past data come from Métoè-France stations from 1971 to 2000 and future data from simulations of Arpege model for 2071 to 2100, A1b scenario. The final goal was to classify the different salt weathering behaviours in different regions. For each station we calculate the mean, max, min and standard deviation of the number of transitions (NaCl and Na2SO4) or the number of days (CaSO4) obtained from the polynomial regression functions. After that we apply an Ascending Hierarchical

Classification to the data to classify the different locations.

The results show that for past data 3 different "salt behaviour" classes are well differentiated but for future data the classification is more complex and does not correspond to the actual one. In general, we can distinguish three geographic areas in a N-W to S-E direction. In the Northern part weathering by NaCl and Na2SO4 will remain constant or slightly decrease but gypsum effect will be more important. In the central part, covering most of the France, salt weathering will increase for the three salts and in the southern part, NaCl and Na2SO4 salt weathering will increase but gypsum weathering will decrease.

# 2232 - The Copernicus Climate Change Service: an European answer to Climate Change Challenges

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2232-01

#### Europe's Eyes on Climate Change

P. Brunet (1)

(1) European Commission, Dir. of aerospace, maritime and defence industries of dg grow, Bruxelles, Belgium

Climate change is a major global challenge with a range of potential social and economic impacts and the need for accurate information about the impacts of our changing climate is growing increasingly urgent. Copernicus, through its new thematic service, will support policymakers and relevant public authorities in monitoring the changing climate in order to better understand its potential effects and take appropriate actions. To illustrate the effort dedicated to this operational programme, a total budget of EUR 4.3 billion has been allocated to the Copernicus programme (including the satellites), EUR 900 million thereof are dedicated to the six services. The importance of the climate change is reflected by the allocation of EUR 215 million (almost a quarter of the services budget) to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This service will bring together and integrate many different sources of information about the Earth, including data from the dedicated and operational Sentinel satellites and information from the other Copernicus services monitoring our oceans and ice masses, our atmosphere, and the Earth's land surfaces. The study of climate change involves a wide range of stakeholders and different scientific disciplines. Consequently, the C3S will be inherently cooperative, collaborative and international. Copernicus aims at becoming a trusted reference source for climate-related information and will become Europe's main contribution to global efforts to better understand and monitor our planet's natural systems. The C3S products will comprise ECVs (Essential Climate Variables), a set of key variables identified by GCOS for monitoring and predicting climate change, as well as Climate indices and Indicators required to address sector specific issues. Amongst the first sectors to be taken up by the pre-operational service are domains of particular interest, for instance water management and energy. Based on the ECVs and the indices and indicators tailor-made products will be developed integrating geophysical data with ancillary data on population, infrastructures, industrial assets, transport, etc. These products will support the holistic assessment of proposed climate policy measures for different possible scenarios for future developments. The Copernicus Climate Change Service is ready to begin operations in a phased approach, starting with a proof-of-concept and the pre-operations. The service is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) [cf. Jean-Noël Thepaut «The Copernicus Climate Change Service», same session] The service will embody a comprehensive operational climate change monitoring system, which will continue to evolve in light of, and in close cooperation with, existing European and international initiatives, projects and activities, which it will complement with integrated modelling, reanalysis and observation capabilities.

### O-2232-01

#### The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

JN. Thepaut (1)

(1) ECMWF, Research, Reading, United Kingdom

This presentation will provide an overview of the C3S:

This service will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate in Europe and worldwide. The service will benefit from a network of observations, both from in situ and satellite sensors, and modelling capabilities. Moreover, it will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers).

The service will deliver substantial economic value to Europe by (1) informing policy development to protect european citizens from climate-related hazards such as high-impact weather events, (2) improving planning of mitigations and adaptation practices for key human and societal activities, (3) promoting the development of new services by providing datasets and tools following an free and open data policy.

The talk will review the expected portfolio of C3S products and datasets which include consistent estimates of multiple Essential Climate Variables, global and regional reanalyses (covering a comprehensive Earth-system domain: atmosphere, ocean, land, carbon), products based on observations alone (gridded; homogenised station series; reprocessed Climate Data Records), a near-real-time climate monitoring facility, multi-model seasonal forecasts and climate projections and scenarios at global and regional scales.

This wealth of climate information will be the basis for generating a wide variety of climate indicators aimed at supporting adaptation and mitigation policies in Europe in a number of sectors including (but not restricted to) energy, water management, agriculture and forestry, insurance, the health, tourism, infrastructure, disaster risk reduction, coastal areas). The service will be fully operational by 2018, and continually and independently evaluated and improved, to ensure that C3S represents the latest developments in climate science and that innovative service elements are introduced reflecting current research. Appropriate channels and interfaces with Research and Innovation activities in Europe will be established to ensure an efficient transfer from research to operational climate service related activities.

### O-2232-02

#### How is the climate changing? Climate monitoring based on observations

D. Dee (1)

(1) ECMWF, Reanalysis, Reading, United Kingdom

Earth observations, recorded over time by a multitude of instruments ranging from early mercury barometers to synthetic aperture radars and other advanced satellite sensors, contain the fundamental information at our disposal to describe in detail how the climate has changed
since the pre-industrial age. Observations contain the evidence that the Earth surface is warming, glaciers are melting, sea-level is rising and the oceans are acidifying. Observations allow us to monitor and assess more subtle changes taking place in our environment related to air quality, regional rainfall patterns and the occurrence of extreme events. Observations provide the foundation for developing and testing the Earth-system models and prediction systems that are needed to help us understand our common future.

An important challenge for the Copernicus Climate Change Service therefore is to improve access to observations and to the tools needed to render them useful for climate science and climate services. A dedicated Climate Data Store is being developed for this purpose, with a catalogue that includes situ observations, measurements from space, homogenised and reprocessed climate data records, model-based climate reanalyses and information about data quality and uncertainties. The reanalysed data sets, constructed by combining climate observations from multiple sources with state-of-the-art models, provide the most comprehensive view of the changing climate. They contain time series of many essential climate variables, pertaining to the atmosphere, land surfaces, oceans and cryosphere, that extend back by decades or more. Continual improvement of climate reanalyses with complete and consistent descriptions of the Earth system at global and regional scales will be key to the success of the Copernicus programme.

## O-2232-03

### Climate prediction and projections in support of climate services

#### S. Planton (1)

(1) Métoé-France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

One main basic component of climate information disseminated by climate services are future climate predictions and projections. Either used directly or through sectoral impact analyses, future climate simulations are needed to develop adaptation strategies or to evaluate the efficiency of climate policies. Long-term forecasting is already developed at the European and at the international level with some applications that are already useful in different socio-economic fields, like in the energy sector either at mid or tropical latitudes. Climate projections, from global to regional scale, are already feeding services within the context of national climate services all around the world with a very large spectrum of potential applications. We will give some insights on the usefulness of climate predictions and projections within the context of evolving requirements coming from the user community. We will give specific attention on the uncertainty issue with the common practice for climate prediction and climate change projection consisting in using multi-model ensembles of simulations putting some constraints on the climate services construction.

## O-2232-04

### The impacts of climate change - Sectoral applications

#### R. Vautard (1)

(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Climate change, its current and future foreseeable impacts have been assessed in the 5th IPCC report. Beyond mitigation, necessary to keep climate warming at a manageable level, the report pinpoints the need for adaptation for coping with unavoidable consequences. However most damageable impacts are expected in several decades, which is sometimes too far a horizon, with a number of uncertainties, to easily foresee businesses in a sustainable market for adaptation.

The talk will present exemplified areas where impacts of climate change present sufficient evidence and challenges to be implemented in a public service like de Copernicus Climate Change Service. It will also review, for a few cases, new challenges for science, and the need for even basic science to support climate change services. These examples will cover classical sectoral areas such as water, energy and health. It will also develop from a few examples how extreme events and their impacts, as a consequence of climate change, and their attribution could, after

overcoming several scientific and communication challenges, be fully part of a public climate change service.

The presentation will also develop the challenges for modelling but also for monitoring the earth, and particularly the impacts of climate change.

## O-2232-05

### How to inform policy-makers ? Supporting and enabling evidence-based policy-making

#### G. Barker (1)

(1) Department of Energy and Climate Change, Former minister of state for climate change (2010–2014), London, United Kingdom

As we get closer to the UNFCCC legally-binding international climate change agreement set to be agreed in Paris in December 2016, policy-makers need to be equipped with evidence-based information to assist them in determining future strategies to address climate change challenges.

Developing and improving the science is one thing; making it available to its intended users and communicating it in a format and language which will actually assist policy-making are today's challenges. We have identified three main areas to discuss:

* Language and visualisation – though the evidence is scientific, the language should be adapted to its intended users – how science–literate are policy-makers anyway?

* How to translate uncertainty in policy-making? One of the UNFCCC core principle is that national governments should err on the side of precaution in the face of scientific uncertainty. How do we justify this approach to citizens?

Policy-making cannot satisfy itself with a 'one size fits all' approach and needs a sectoral approach to help target strategies and policies to each specific industry.

## 2232-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2232-01

### Time course of weather variables in malaria-related mortality in Sub Saharan Africa rural population

#### E. Diboulo (1)

(1) Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Basel, Switzerland

The current and potential future impacts of climate change on human health have attracted increasing attention in the recent years and it is expected to significantly affect the spatial distribution as well as intensity of infectious diseases. Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important diseases and to alter their geographic range, potentially bringing them to region which lack either population immunity or strong public health infrastructures as it is the case in most of SSA.

The relationship between human health and weather conditions has been extensively studied although mostly focused on urban settings. Therefore little is known about the effects and associations between human health and weather conditions in rural populations of SSA hitherto. Studies on these associations are rather limited and scarce due to scarcity of good quality data.

Malaria features among the infectious diseases whose impacts are expected to exacerbate under future climate change scenarios in SSA. However, despite an apparent ostensibly simple association between particular weather conditions and increased abundance of mosquitoes, there still remains a lack of information on the relative importance of the different weather variable in the occurrence of the disease Indeed both the mosquito development and survival as well as incubation period before an infected human develops symptoms of malaria
strongly depend on prevailing climatic conditions. Furthermore there is always a lag time between climate suitability and change in mosquito's population and both the temperature-dependant sporogony within the mosquito and the incubation period in human and add an additional complexity and uncertain lag time.

The lagged effects of weather on daily deaths are believed to mitigate with distant lags. However choices of the different lag structure in earlier studies have been usually motivated by model adjustment parameters that reduce serial correlation and confounding.

In this study, we set out to model flexibly lagged effects using fifteen years of weather variables namely temperature and rainfall on malaria related daily mortality counts using distributed lag non linear models.

Distributed lag models (DLMs) allow for a flexible estimation of the time course of the effect size of weather variable over time on the outcome.

The results show a harvesting effect of high temperatures on malaria-related mortality with an increased relative with the rising temperatures; while mortality show a steady and linear increase with high rainfall.

P-2232-02

## Modeling of the vulnerability of «biomass energy» sub-sector to climate change in Togo

K. Kouami (1)

(1) Faculty of Sciences, Botany, Togo, Togo

Biomass energy accounts for 80% of total energy consumed in Togo. But its potential decreases exponentially as a result of population growth and the fact that the techniques of production and consumption are still archaic and climate change. The aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the sub-sector of biomass energy in Togo by a modeling approach. Specifically, it is i) to study the evolution of the all sectors in agriculture (crop, livestock, pastoralist, fishery, etc) due to the high reliance on weather and climatic elements in agricultural practices. In the south west Nigeria, crop production is the dominant agricultural enterprise among smallholder farmers and is the primary means of their food security. This enterprise is currently faced with the challenges of changing climatic conditions. The smallholder farmers in south west Nigeria are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their general weak capacity to adaptation and this vulnerability is worsened by their heavy practice of rain fed agriculture. Recent evidence from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) (2008), indicates that the climate of the south west region of Nigeria is already changing based on the assessment of the climate over the period 1941 to 2000. This is manifested in changes in seasonal rainfall patterns and more unpredictable, severe and frequent extreme events like floods and droughts threatening

P-2232-03

## Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts and Climate Change Adaptation Among Smallholder Farmers in South West Region of Nigeria

A. Onwuemele (1)

(1) Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Social and Governance Policy Research, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the most serious environmental threats, facing manning worldwide. It is highly vulnerable to climate change due to their general weak capacity to adaptation and this vulnerability is worsened by their heavy practice of rain fed agriculture. Recent evidence from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) (2008), indicates that the climate of the south west region of Nigeria is already changing based on the assessment of the climate over the period 1941 to 2000. This is manifested in changes in seasonal rainfall patterns and more unpredictable, severe and frequent extreme events like floods and droughts threatening

livelihoods among smallholder farmers in the region. This scenario is having significant impacts on crop yields and product quality as a result of changes in temperatures, moisture, air and soil. To a large extent, the smallholder's farmers in the region have continuously been adapting to varying weather and climatic conditions; however, the increasingly erratic climate variability and the rapid pace of other drivers of change are overwhelming their capacity to adapt. Consequently, the need to explore new methodologies to endure the climate uncertainty and variability in the region have become more critical than more than ever before among smallholder farmers. The use of seasonal rainfall forecasts may be an important adaptation to a more dynamic climate as it can provide valuable insight into future weather and climate variability. While seasonal rainfall forecasts can serve as a potential tool for adaptively managing agricultural systems in response to climate change, it is not clear whether smallholder farmers in south west Nigeria are receptive to innovations such as the use of seasonal rainfall forecasts in planning for adaptation activities. This paper evaluates the applicability of seasonal rainfall forecast in climate change adaptation as well as the determinants and constraints to application of seasonal rainfall, forecast in climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers in South West Nigeria. Simple purposeful sampling was used to select Oyo State out of six states in the south west Nigeria while agricultural communities that are prone to climate change in the state were also purposively selected. Primary data were obtained from 425 farmers using questionnaires while two Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted for men and women smallholder farmers in the communities. The data obtained were organized in Microsoft Excel, cleaned and analyzed on the Statistical Package of the Social Sciences (SPSS) using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The results were analyzed. Results indicate poor understanding and little or no application of seasonal rainfall forecast in planning for adaptation in the study area. Results further shows that only 12.7 per cent of respondents had access and utilize seasonal rainfall forecast in planning adaptation activities. It further identified the main constraints to the non application of seasonal rainfall forecast to include poor access to seasonal rainfall forecast, lack of information on its content as reported by 49.8 per cent of the respondents. Finally, results show a high positive correlation between usage of seasonal rainfall forecast and educational attainments, income, ownership of ICT facilities as well as membership of local community groupings. The paper calls for greater enlightenment programmes and the integration of local medium in the communication of seasonal rainfall forecast in the region for effective access and utilization of seasonal rainfall forecast by small holder farmers in the region.

P-2232-04

## From weather to climate: responding to climate risk across timescales

J. Slingo (1)

(1) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Weather and climate risks occur on a range of timescales, from severe weather to extreme seasons to centennial changes, all of which require a response. Over the coming century we will need to mitigate and adapt to these risks, taking into account additional challenges posed by rising population levels, increasing urbanisation and associated increases in demand for water, food and energy.

Forecasts and early warnings are both critical contributors to climate change adaptation across a range of timescales: at decadal timescales, they enable introduction of adaptation policies and planning of major infrastructure changes on appropriate timescales, at monthly to annual timescales, they enable planning of public and business preparedness; at hours to weekly timescales, they enable longer-term planning of individuals to protect communities and themselves through defence and evacuation measures.

Recent advances in weather and climate forecasting capability by advanced weather and climate services have shown remarkable skill in providing valuable advice at each of these timescales. They have also demonstrated substantial benefits of working in a seamless manner across these different timescales. Investment in building the capacity of less developed National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to make use of these new advances is a highly cost-effective way of reducing the impact of climate change across timescales.
# 2233 - Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: International and Urban approaches

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2233-01

#### Linkage between DRR and CCA

**M. van Aalst (1)**

(1) RedCross/RedCresent, Climate Centre, the Netherlands

Not communicated.

### O-2233-01

#### PLACARD: building a platform for CCA and DRR cooperation by 2020

**M. Pulquerio (1) ; T. Capela Lourenço (1) ; P. Pringle (2) ; R. Schwarze (3)**

(1) Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal;

(2) UK Climate Impacts Programme, School of geography

and the environment, Oxford, United Kingdom; (3) UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

Significant challenges exist towards strengthening the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) communities for coherent, mutually and pragmatic planning and action. While efforts to increase complementarity continue, much work is still required to coordinate and integrate the two domains. Within the complex landscape of research and policy initiatives of these two areas various international and European efforts have been undertaken to better integrate CCA and DRR, and thus minimize the current and future risks presented by climate change in the context of extremes. Paradoxically, the past decade has seen a major fragmentation of CCA and DRR agendas, particularly at the level of research, policy, knowledge and practices. International frameworks, political processes, funding mechanisms, information exchange fora and practitioner communities have largely developed separately and operated in isolation from one another.

PLACARD is a newly funded Horizon 2020 European project that seeks to support the coordination between these two communities. PLACARD will tackle current challenges by 1) providing a common 'space' where CCA and DRR communities can come together, share experiences and create opportunities for collaboration; 2) facilitating communication and knowledge exchange between both communities; and 3) supporting the coordination and coherence of CCA and DRR research, policy and practice. PLACARD's approach to achieving these goals is to establish a strong and operational network of networks by connecting to existing networks and boundary organisations to foster dialogue among stakeholders (e.g. researchers, research funders, policymakers, practitioners) engaged in CCA and DRR at the international, European, national and sub-national scales. This overarching network will enable these communities to share knowledge, to discuss challenges and to jointly co-produce options to bridge the gaps they experience. It will support the development and implementation of a research and innovation agenda to make better use of research funding, as well as to develop guidelines to strengthen relevant institutions in their efforts to mainstream CCA and DRR.

### O-2233-02

#### Adoption as Adaptation! Long-term consequences of cyclone disaster in coastal Bangladesh

**Z. Sultana (1) ; B. Mallick, (2)**

(1) Coastal Research Foundation (CRF), Environmental science discipline, khulna university, Khulna, Bangladesh;

(2) Vanderbilt University, Political science, Nashville, United States of America

Disaster risk reduction strategies and adaptation practices vary from region to region and community to community, for example, the practices of southern part of Bangladesh

are different from the northern part. The sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies or adaptation practices of one region may not be replicable to another region or community but the learnings from each strategies can introduce a new one that is adaptable to the other region. Therefore, this research aimed at to identify the short-term and long-term adopted strategies that are practicing after a devastated cyclone in southwest coastal Bangladesh. It is given that, in coastal areas people live under the constant threats of natural hazards. Thus raise the questions: how they react to the risk of those natural calamities and how they adapt with the adverse situations that derived by those calamities. Particularly, this research has empirically explored community level practices in agriculture, housing, water resources, communication and employment generations in Bangladesh.

The empirical research was designed with a mixed-methods approach: (1) content analysis of face-to-face interview in 145 respondents by using semi-structured questionnaire with selected social groups of their households' assistants; (2) contingent debates concerning the local attitude and perception for the improvement of their livelihood, which was understood as a case-study of livelihood complexities in coastal areas. Therefore, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) was conducted with three different groups: farmers, fishermen and general people. Key informant interviewers (KII) were: chairman of the Union, Upazila Agricultural officer, Upazila Fisheries Officer, Nigjor Representatives, selected Social groups of disaster risk reduction strategies and adaptation practices are recognized by the discussion with the FGD participants.

Results show that people have to start cultivating saline tolerant rice and vegetables on raised homestead instead of traditional rice varieties, as a consequence of saline intrusion after cyclone Aila. They were using dripping irrigation methods and rain water harvesting and artificial aquifer tube-well were introduced for water management. Mud wall of the houses were replaced by or even built newly with Goran wood or bamboo sticks. They have to start forming groups to save money for next disaster and taking credit for small entrepreneurship. Due to the crises of fodder, pastureland and freshwater people was forced to rear small animals and birds like sheep, goat and pigeon instead of cow and buffalo rearing. New technology based shrimp farming also has been started.

Besides, an external aid must not be the only solution to increase the coping capacity of a community, and thus to develop a resilient one. Likewise, the measures/strategies are identified that were taken by various actors based on their existing socio-economic conditions and both positive and negative consequences of those adopted strategies are discussed. The pros-and-cons of each adopted strategies takes the interests of the different actors behind the respective strategy. It also explore that such adopted strategies in the long-run will be seen as traditional form of adaptation option for them. This study is therefore be of importance for regional planners and policy makers help to develop a comprehensive disaster management plan that is helpful in building resilience in the affected communities.

### O-2233-03

#### Early Warning Systems - seamless between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate change Adaptation

**J. Thielen-Del Pozo (1) ; P. Barbosa, (1) ; L. Feyen, (2) ; P. Salamon, (1) ; M. San (1) ; J. Vogt, (1)**

(1) European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (2) JRC, Ispra, Italy

Our climates change continuously, due both to natural causes and as a result of human activities. There is a growing consensus in the scientific and policy communities that the consequences of worldwide industrialisation and rapid urbanisation are also affecting our climates. Increase in global temperature may have impact on frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, as
well as shortages of food and water, just to name a few examples. Consequences of climate change constitute, under present and future climates, a threat to the more developed countries such as Europe, but even more so an obstacle to poverty reduction and stability in less developed countries. In already fragile regions and countries, climate driven disasters can negatively influence development, security and stability but thus reduce resilience.

Therefore, joint efforts between scientists and policy makers are needed to find feasible solutions to keep climate change within manageable limits, to assess adaptation strategies to minimise negative impacts, and to develop early warning systems to reduce the residual risks associated with extreme weather events. Early warning systems contribute to anticipation of the event, allow decision makers to take appropriate actions to reduce the impact.

The JRC has been developing continental systems for monitoring and forecasting floods, droughts and forest fires which will be illustrated in the presentation: the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) has been developed since 2003 following the devastating Elbe and Danube floods which highlighting the need for European solutions to be prepared for a cross-border event. EFAS provides the daily information on ongoing and expected floods up to 10 days in advance to the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of the European Commission and the National Hydrological Services. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), initiated in 1998, aims at providing harmonized information on forest fires in Europe. EFFIS provides the European Commission services, the European Parliament and the forest fire services in the countries with harmonized information on forest fires. Both EFAS and EFFIS have become integral part of the COPERNICUS emergency management service, one of six operational services under the EU Copernicus space programme. Furthermore, the JRC has been developing a prototype of a European Drought Observatory (EDO) which is to providing in pre-operational timely and consistent information on droughts in Europe. EDO allows to monitor, detect, forecast, and assess drought situations throughout Europe, serving as a platform for information exchange between various stakeholders. After all systems have demonstrated their added value for cross-border management of severe events, they are now being expanded experimentally to global scale.

While the focus of the systems is to monitoring and forecast floods, droughts and forest fire events in Europe and globally they also represent a framework for further studies on assessment trends, scenario modelling with regard to different measures, management plans and potential adaptation measures. By promoting seamless forecasting from now-casting to seasonal and longer time scales the systems can be useful for both climate change adaptation as well as disaster risk reduction at different levels. The presentation will illustrate how these systems, in partnership with leading organisations and international initiatives and programmes, have the potential to contribute to both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation studies in a multi-hazard framework.

## O-2233-04

### Participatory socioeconomic scenario development as building block of a local risk management tool to climate change adaptation - an Alpine test-site in the East-Tyrol, Austria

I. Meyer (1); B. Eder (2); AM. Hama (3); M. Leitner (1)

(1) Austrian Institute of Economic Research - WIFO, environment, energy, agriculture, Vienna, Austria; (2) Alps, Innsbruck, Austria; (3) alps Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria

In Austria, extreme events such as heavy precipitation, storms, debris flows and floods are expected to show fundamental changes with respect to magnitude, frequency and duration caused by climate change. Today, risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- and hazard-specific and rarely in a dynamic, scenario-based manner. The project ARIS (Adaptation and Decision Support) via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) develops a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk

management as a key adaptation tool for the local level. One of the building blocks of ARISE are socioeconomic scenarios that capture main features of the future local economy. Regional socioeconomic scenarios are the pillars to identify future climate related risks and thus to shape disaster risk reduction and risk management which support the building of resilience and adaptation capacities at the local level. The scenarios are based on the current state and trends of sector developments in employment and value creation in the test-site City of Lienz and its surroundings in the East-Tyrol. They include drivers such as demography, a story line and a vision into the future. Scenarios were developed using a participatory approach. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element of management and decision-making. There are various reasons why to pursue a participatory approach. For instance, problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines; participation is said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act. The paper presents results of two socioeconomic scenarios that were developed using insights from stakeholders and decision-makers of the City of Lienz as well as scientific findings from available data sets and the literature, i.e. a "boom" and a "bust" scenario. Categories of drivers of socioeconomic scenarios discussed during the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions, socio-political frameworks, demographics, production and demand, markets and trade, scientific and technological innovations, and value systems. Based on empirical data on the local employment we identified 6 relevant sectors of the local economy with specific trend developments that served as framework to discuss scenarios: 1) infrastructure and natural hazards, 2) tourism, 3) industry and manufacturing, 4) agriculture and food, 5) policy and the administration, 6) health, education and other services. As City of Lienz is situated south of the main Alpine ridge in the East-Tyrol it is characterized as peripheral region with population loss in the recent past. One of the major challenges for conceiving a "boom"-scenario was thus to imagine the region to become attractive for well educated people. Last but not least, another feature of the participatory scenario workshop was to communicate knowledge from science to local decision-makers. Regional climate scenarios, socioeconomic data and projections as well as a summary of perceived current climate-related risks were presented. The latter were gathered by subjective expert reasoning (personal interviews) with stakeholders from the region. Participation thus incorporated a two-way information exchange, from science to practice and from practice to science. The presentation will finally give a perspective on the development of the climate related risk management tool.

## O-2233-05

### GIS-based Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of the Municipality of Del Carmen, Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines

D. Racelis (1); E. Racelis (1); A. Limpiada (1)

(1) University of the Philippines Los Banos, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, College, Laguna, Philippines

A GIS-based mapping and assessment was conducted to determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and climate risks of ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure in the municipality of Del Carmen, Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines. The study involved collaboration with bio-physical and socio-economic survey teams in undertaking qualitative and quantitative assessment of resources and their capacities against climate-related hazards. It also included assessment of past and present impacts of climate change vulnerability in the project areas and assessed and prioritized adaptation strategies, and identified gaps/needs in the implementation of the selected strategies.

Approximately equal number of hectares are exposed to either high (6,340 ha) or low risk (6,039 ha) to drought. In particular, Brgy. San Fernando has the largest area exposed to high risk with 1,186 ha of uncultivated lands. For cultivated lands, Brgy. Bagakay has the largest area exposed to high risk with 232 ha. In terms of exposure, Brgy. Mahayahay has the highest with 100% of its land area exposed to high risk. In contrast, Brgy. Caub and Brgy. Lobogan have the lowest exposure to the risk.
Further, analysis shows that around 137 ha of populated areas which is about 1% of the total land area of the municipality of Del Carmen are exposed to very high risk to rain-induced landslide. These areas are mostly located in Brygs. Caub, Mahahayay, Quezon, San Fernando, and Tuboran. Likewise, about 1,644 ha (14%) of unpopulated areas are also exposed to such risk. Further, around 31 ha and 79 ha of populated areas have moderately high to moderately low risk to landslide, respectively. However, it should be emphasized that more than 8,792 ha (71%) have no risk to landslide. Further, the safest area as far as risk to landslide is concerned is Bryg. Del Carmen with virtually no areas exposed to the hazard.

Moreover, around 143 ha (1.1%) of the municipality are exposed to low to medium risk to storm surge. These are obviously confined to coastal areas. Bryg. Del Carmen has the largest populated area exposed to medium risk with 49.3 ha while Bryg. San Fernando has 1,024 ha of unpopulated areas exposed to the same risk. Spatial analysis also shows that Brygs. Conohoy, Lobogon, Mahahayay, Quezon and Tuboran are virtually free from risk to storm surge. The condition is due to the fact that these barangays are mostly located in the higher elevation section of the municipality

## 2233-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2233-01

#### A model of choice under uncertainty for flood preparedness intention in Brazil

G. Guedes (1); R. Raad (2); L. Vaz (3); M. Araujo (4)

(1) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil;

(2) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of economics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Department of economics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of statistics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

This paper performs an econometric analysis based on selected dimensions of the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) for Brazil. We empirically estimated preparedness determinants by using Seemingly Unrelated Regression models. PADM survey instrument validation was based on Cronbach's alpha, index of reliability agreement index, factor analysis, and mean-comparison tests. The PADM was applied to a representative sample of 1,200 households in the municipality of Governor Valadas, State of Minas Gerais. The site was chosen because river floods are recurrent in the area, reaching thousands of households along the river. Its urban environment has undergone dramatic change in the last decades, creating an ideal scenario for floating: riparian deforestation, river siltation, unplanned occupation of riverbanks, and garbage and sewage discharge into the river. In addition to the econometric analysis, event calendar of major floods in the area, also collected in the survey, allows for comparison between intended and actual preparedness behavior. Building on models of private insurance, we provide a theoretical framework stating that risk aversion is a key factor affecting the directions of influence given by the price and resource effectiveness on the probability of adopting preventive behavior. Thus, for a given nominal budget constraint an increase in insurance price could change one's risk aversion, leading to a higher propensity to buy insurance. We found that, under certain conditions on risk aversion, hazard-related attributes (HRA) positively affect propensity to take protective actions. This was confirmed by our regression results. In contrast, resource-related attributes (RRA) positively or do not affect propensity to adopt preventive actions. This non-intuitive finding can be justified by our theoretical framework: risk-averse individuals would feel relatively deprived with increase in the opportunity costs of action, leading to additional effort to take protective actions against flood hazard. Finally, the impact of HRA was empirically higher than RRA on preventive behavior since the effective cost of preventive actions is low relative to a person's budget constraint. These findings suggest that public action should promote educational campaigns along the reduction of subjective uncertainty on resource effectiveness.

### P-2233-02

#### The Power of Communication in Post Disaster Reconstruction and the Implication for RIA: A Cross Country Synthesis

EHK. Lin (1)

(1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan

This research presents a research project funded by International START secretariat, and earlier co-sponsored by International Social Science Council and Integrated Research on Disaster Reduction (IRDR). The project is built on the RIA model developed by Risk Interpretation and Action working group of IRDR and further examines the effects of communication across scales and social entities that might influence personal RIA in the arena of post disaster reconstruction and resettlement phases. The ontology of the conceptual framework pertinent to this project views risk interpretation and decision making as dynamic and cyclical, while RIA or RDR have to develop an analytical framework to investigate the higher level of legislative, institutional and political structures that determine the scope of engagement and the relationships among the governed stakeholders in the policy making processes, with the lower level of norms and values that not only frame the essence of the society but also inherent in the personal interpretation about certain risk of interest. We also examine the factors addressed in RIA model in the cross scale communication dynamism. A three-staged hierarchical research design is thus developed corresponding to these research inquiries in the case studies across five countries, namely Taiwan, Philippines, Uganda, Honduras, and India. The research results of the cross country synthesis are displayed at governmental and institutional level and at the community or individual level that finally come along with the provisional pathologies for analyzing communication influences throughout the processes.

At the governmental and institutional level, it is found that the robustness of the legislative and institutional framework to regulate engagement and participation of civil society is fundamental for strengthening the influences of communication on policy making. Taiwan and Philippines, followed by India, have shown the higher standard of the trajectories, while Uganda and Honduras display weak or absence of the related legislation and thus the least strength of communication waged with higher social conflicts and instability. At the community and individual level, the RIA factors are examined including experiences, trust, culture, social norm, rational choices and uncertainty. Dramatically this research finds that risk interpretation and decision made for taking actions are two different things. The interpretation of risk has deep rooted in the population's cultural basis, which is not easy to be changed. Moreover, people's decision for risk reduction does not singly reflect their interpretation of the certain risk of the physical hazard as narrowly defined by scholars or experts; it actually builds on the interpretations of enormous uncertainties relating to any socio-economic and cultural changes following the possible action. Thus risk interpretation is multidimensional, reflecting people's social, cultural and institutional embeddedness, far beyond the theoretical debates between rational or irrational discourses. The decision made for taking certain action usually reflects the net outcome of factor competitions behind the embeddedness. Communication thus brings imperative functions for sharing the interpretation of the risks and the concerned uncertainties; and obviously as revealed in the study, shared rights for local people to participate in the policy making processes could bring positive effects on formulating more desirable and acceptable policies for most disaster reconstruction and resettlement that would reciprocally influence personal decision making towards a more mutually desirable solution.

### P-2233-03

#### Modelling Agricultural Risk in India from an Insurance Perspective

T. Osborne (1); R. Hohl, (2); A. Boissonnade, (3)

(1) Asia Risk Centre, Reading, United Kingdom; (2) Asia Risk Centre, Singapore, Singapore; (3) Asia Risk Centre, California, United States of America
After China, India is the second largest agriculture producer globally where over 120 million farmers with an average farm size of only 1.3 hectares produce a large variety of crop types in two main growing seasons. With only 30% of the arable land being irrigated, India's agriculture sector relies heavily on the timely onset and spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for successful cultivation of summer (Kharif) crops. Breaks in monsoon rainfall can trigger severe droughts as experienced in 2002 where rainfall reached 21% over the growing season and a drop of 18% in nationwide grain production resulted. Conversely, particularly active periods within the monsoon can lead to flood damage to Kharif crops. The winter (Rabi) crops are sensitive to prolonged cold spells, frost events and abnormal heat.

As part of measures to cope with severe droughts, cyclones and floods, the Indian government has implemented and supported a variety of national crop insurance programs which entirely rely on weather and yield indices. The current insurance schemes include the Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) and the yield-based modified National Crop Insurance Scheme (mNAIS). With the anticipated growth, annual agriculture insurance premiums are likely to reach USD 1 billion making India the third or fourth largest agriculture insurance market globally.

With the increasing complexity of the weather and yield indices pricing WBCIS and mNAIS portfolios has become a challenge for insurers. Key constraints for robust risk modeling and exposure management are i) the lack and accessibility of weather station data and ii) the short and often incomplete time series of historical yield data which often show strong trends depending on the crop type, and ii) the season. For mNAIS, insurance terms are based on only 11-15 years of historical yield data and payouts are triggered if actual yields are 10%-20% below expected (insured) levels. In areas where larger yield shortfalls have not been observed in the last 11-15 years, insurance terms might not adequately reflect the risk potential, especially for systematic events such as droughts, floods and cyclones. Based on the short historical time series, extreme events such as the 1987 or 2002 droughts cannot be consistently assessed and insurers are concerned about spatial quality of such events and resulting financial losses.

This paper presents results of research undertaken by Asia Risk Centre to assess insurance losses of mNAIS portfolios in India. A crop model is developed using key parameters such as high-resolution gridded weather data, soil types and structures, slope coefficients, irrigation levels and crop-specific growing season parameters. To generate synthetic yields for the last 45 years the model is then driven with historical climate variations. The model resolution is set at 25 x 25 km which approximately corresponds to a sub-district ("block") on which triggers for mNAIS insurance products apply. Following market practice, other insurance terms such as premium rates and indemnity levels are used at a district level. The synthetic yields are processed to calculate insurance losses to mNAIS portfolios after consideration of original policy terms and conditions.

This paper reveals how synthetic yields allow a quantitative and robust assessment of i) the profitability levels of a given mNAIS portfolio and growing season and ii) the expected losses from historical extreme events such as the 1987 and 2002 droughts. Synthetic yields of wheat and rice in Uttar Pradesh are compared to historical to determine the model's ability to accurately represent climatically-driven variability in yield. Further, outputs of crop models in general are discussed in terms of benefits for the insurance sector including improved risk assessment, risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management and how simulated weather events can be used in crop models to generate several hundreds of years of synthetic yield series.

## P-2233-04

# Government-NGO Collaboration for Disaster Risk Reduction in India: A SWOT Analysis

J. Parida (1) ; N. Mishra (2)

(1) National Institute of Technology, Dept. of Humanities and Social Sciences, Rourkela, Odisha, India; (2) National Institute of Technology, Dept. of humanities and social

sciences, Rourkela, India

Effective and meaningful collaboration between the two stakeholders: Government and Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) is imperative to attain the goals of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The involvement of NGOs in all phases of DRR programmes is very crucial because of their grass-root presence and community-focused approach. NGOs are the linchpin of a harmonious and constructive approach with mutual respect and recognition based on four aspects such as co-operation, co-option, complementary and confrontation (UNESCO, 1989; the World Bank, 1990; Nazam, 1999). Though lots of studies have been carried out on GO-NGO collaboration, but on the aspect of disaster management is not explored much. Over the last couple of years, a paradigm shift in the approach to disaster management has been carried out by the Government of India. National policies and Acts like Disaster Management Act, 2005; the National Policy on the Voluntary Sector, 2007 and National Policy on Disaster Management, 2009 emphasize the proper coordination of actions of Government and Non-governmental Organizations in a holistic and proactive manner. However, the study is an attempt to identify the Government and Non-governmental Organizational relationship in disaster risk reduction programmes particularly at district and panchayat level. To accomplish this objective, this study has attempted to find out the answers of certain questions like i) how far the existing GO-NGO collaboration is effective in managing disasters, ii) what are the strengths, weaknesses (internal factors), opportunities and threats (external factors) affecting to achieve the policy-goals of DRR.

In this paper, the study was carried out in Balasore and Kendrapara districts of Odisha, India which are more prone to disasters like floods. Respondents from both Government Organizations and NGOs engaged in disaster management directly or indirectly were interviewed in order to have broader views and opinions on policy matters, problems and potentials and to evaluate their roles in the particular area. Open and close- ended questions were used for this purpose. A SWOT analysis was used to focus on the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities of collaboration in relation to efficiency, capacity building, quality and accountability. The study found that the effective collaboration is lacking between Government and NGOs at local level. Majority of the respondents were not satisfied with the existing mechanism of collaboration because of more control and authority over NGOs. There is irregularity of interaction between Government officials and NGOs which makes the collaboration weak. It is also important that mutual respect, trust, transparency and accountability should be present between both the stakeholders.

## P-2233-05

# Community based disaster risk reduction practices in Bangladesh

A. Rahman (1)

(1) Khulna university, Urban and Rural Planning, KHULNA, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Conversely, this country has proven superb experienced in disaster risk management as the disaster and relief ministry of Bangladesh has envisaged long term risk reduction strategy through community involvement instead of relief distribution. To explore the best practices for sustainability of community based disaster management (CBDM) in Bangladesh is the prime aim of this study. Qualitative approach was adopted to conduct the research. The activity of Disaster risk reduction and emergency management is managed and implemented by disaster management regulatory framework. The active bottom to top level disaster management committee (DMC) headed by elected person in every administrative tier is the main actor for disaster management. According to disaster order, the local level DMC develops risk reduction action and disaster management plan periodically with community involvement aiming to reduce risk during disaster cycle. Following this, district level Risk Reduction action plan and contingency plan has developed as well as focused with the active people's participation and then incorporation Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into sectoral and local level development plan. Local level disaster management fund creation is another milestone for effective local risk reduction and emergency management. It is also found that the people are placed
In central for planning, implementation and monitoring in the risk reduction interventions which creates community ownership and it increases their resiliency to disaster. Social, economic and environmental considerations are also focused in the CBDM. Disaster management network and information center, DRR issues incorporated into text books, school based preparedness programme and capacity building of different stakeholders are the major ongoing initiatives to enhance knowledge and skills for CBDM. In conclusion, community involvement in both software and hardware DRR interventions make sure the sustainability of CBDM in Bangladesh.

P-2233-06

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for
Effective Disaster Risk Management

X. Tang (1)

(1) World Meteorological Organization, Weather and Disaster
Risk Reduction Service Department, Geneva 2, Switzerland

Every year, disasters related to meteorological, hydrological and climate hazards cause significant loss of life, and set back economic and social development by years. Over the past decade (2005-2014), 3 253 hydrometeorological hazards were reported around the world, resulting in 283,035 deaths and economic losses amounting to US$ 983 million. From 1970 to 2012, storms and floods accounted for 79 per cent of the total number of disasters due to weather, water, and climate extremes and caused 55 per cent of lives lost and 86 per cent of economic losses, while droughts caused 35 per cent of lives lost. Climate change is exacerbating the impact of hydrometeorological hazards and compounding disaster risk. Disaster risk reduction is one of the effective ways of climate change adaptation.

According to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), effective disaster risk management calls for a paradigm shift from emergency response to a more proactive, holistic and systematic approach with strong focus on risk reduction. This paradigm shift requires meteorological, hydrological and climate services to support science-based risk management decisions, as well as investments in Early Warning Systems (EWS) which are well recognized as a critical life-saving tool for floods, droughts, storms, bushfires, and other hazards. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) who are members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) made considerable advances in EWS in the recent years, which are characterized by better observation and monitoring of hazards and improved forecasting and warning services. Also, risk assessment and hazard mapping have been of assistance in development planning and increased the awareness and understanding of risk by the people. However, the societal benefits derived from this progress in EWS have been uneven among countries and communities. Significant gaps remain, especially in servicing the grassroots communities and benefiting poor and vulnerable families.

The global changes in societal structures, rapid urbanization, growing exposure of populations and assets, and climate change, altogether result in a highly dynamic and complex state of disaster risk. This situation, together with the increasing globalisation of risk, calls for strengthened EWS at all levels. It also calls for an integrated and holistic approach to early warnings for multiple hazards and risks tailored to user-needs across sectors. In this regard, international and regional collaboration as well as multi-stakeholder partnership at all levels is critically necessary, given the borderless nature of most natural hazards.

At the Third United Nations World Conference for
Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR), Member States of the
United Nations, through the post-2015 framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), agreed on the necessity of
enhancing multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS).
In response to this call, the multi-stakeholder partnership
– International Network for Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Systems – is forged to facilitate and make available to
governments and key stakeholders the necessary technical
support for strengthening MHEWS as a national strategy
towards building disaster and climate resilience. The
network embodies the commitment of its partners to act
and work together in advancing MHEWS and to foster multi-
stakeholder partnership in DRR for promoting societal
resilience. A comprehensive description of the International
Network and its operational procedures to promote effective
disaster risk management are presented.

P-2233-07

Hurricane Sandy and the Prospects for
Climate Resilience and Transformative
Adaptation in New York's Jamaica Bay
Urban Communities

S. William (1)

(1) City University of New York - Hunter College, Geography, New York NY, United States of America

Climate change resilience and transformative adaptation requires a greater understanding of how current extreme events influence local and regional development trajectories. Within the New York–New Jersey Metropolitan region, Hurricane Sandy and the immediate response to the storm have created conditions for a potential large-scale transformation with respect to settlement of the coastal zone. While the vulnerability of this region to climate change has been well-documented, Sandy's impact has placed this issue into the forefront of public and private discussions about the appropriate response at every level from individual homeowners who are contemplating whether and how to rebuild after devastating losses, to small coastal municipalities which are considering construction of protective engineering structures and changes in zoning laws, to the City of New York, the states of New York and New Jersey, and the federal government which are engaging in discussions about how to better protect the region's population, property, and vital infrastructure from future storms. These discussions are particularly complex given that they are now beginning to be discussed within the context of emerging and potentially intensifying climate change.

This paper presents results of a research study that entailed documentation of the initial phases of a transition in coastal communities and neighborhoods in the Jamaica Bay region of New York City that were heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy. The study was part of a larger, multi-stakeholder results of stakeholder and community-based organization interviews, we explore: 1) evidence of socio-ecological system stress and crisis; 2) associations between stress and crisis, the resilience of local stakeholders, and shifts in system-level equilibria; and 3) cross-scale connections between stakeholder responses, socio-ecological system transitions, and broader-scale community level transformations. The results indicate the conditions of resilience practice and transformative adaptation are highly contested and spatially and socially uneven. This unevenness reveals emerging equity and justice implications within and across the impacted communities.

2234 - Building Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes:
Sustainable Solutions Grounded in Socio-Cultural Context

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2234-01

The Contribution and Centrality of Indige-
ous Knowledge Systems to Developing
Sustainable Adaptation Strategies

KAS. Kassam (1)

(1) College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell
University, Natural Resources & American Indian Program,
Ithaca, NY, United States of America

All over the world, communities that contributed least to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations are facing their hardest impacts. At the vanguard of climatic variation are indigenous communities at high altitudes and latitudes as well as coastal regions. Increasing climate variability
means that these communities cannot simply adapt to a 'new normal'; they must prepare for a broader range of possible conditions and patterns. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies the urgent need to 'downscale' climate model projections in order to anticipate climate change impacts. The difference between predictive capacity and anticipatory capacity is that the former presumes knowledge of future outcomes whereas the later involves being prepared for the future under various outcomes. Developing anticipatory capacity of communities drastically affected by climate change is not only an intellectual challenge but an ethical imperative.

Applied transdisciplinary research is best suited to meeting these challenges. This means active engagement of the biophysical and social sciences as well as the humanities with indigenous knowledge. Indigenous knowledge not only contributes valuable context-specific insights but also facilitates the mooring of adaptation strategies within the local sociocultural and ecological milieu. The cornerstone to resilience is socioculturally and ecologically grounded approaches to climate change adaptation. These approaches contribute to long-term sustainability and dynamism of collaboratively generated knowledge and solutions.

In this presentation, we will illustrate how ecological calendars represent such a collaborative transdisciplinary approach to anticipating climate change in the Pamir Mountains of Central Asia. Calendars are knowledge systems humans use to synchronize activities with seasonal changes in our habitat. Calendars are essential to food systems, because hunting, fishing, gathering, producing crops or rearing livestock all depend on the ability to anticipate patterns of temperature and precipitation and plan accordingly. Ecological calendars are based on phenological indicators, such as the last day of snow cover, the first flowering of a plant, the emergence of an insect, or the arrival of a migratory bird. By keeping track of time in relation to such events, communities are better able to align their livelihood activities with the weather. Ecological calendars could play a critical role in building anticipatory capacity for climate change, because they are able to account for new trends and variability. Furthermore, they are grounded in local ecological knowledge and embedded in cultural values.

## K-2234-02

### Title not communicated

G.Mace (1)

(1) University College, London, United Kingdom

Abstract not communicated

## K-2234-03

### Economic Resilience to Natural Disasters: Application to 87 Countries and Mumbai

S. Hallegatte (1) ; M. Bangalore (2) ; A. Vogt-Schilb (2)

(1) Climate Change Group, Washington, United States of America; (2) World Bank, Washington, DC, United States of America

With disaster losses increasing globally, it is ever more important to measure the ability of a country or city to cope and recover. This ability, often termed "resilience", is complex. At its core, resilience is about the welfare loss from a disaster, and how to reduce it (i.e. increase resilience). In this paper, we estimate welfare impacts (and resilience) of 87 countries to a flood/storm that affects 1% of the population. Our contribution is that we account for distributional impacts, examine outcomes, and that our paper is based on a welfare analysis. We develop a model which includes the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and also the impacts on household assets and income, and the ability to bounce back (or be trapped). Economic resilience for each country, as we calculate it, is the ratio of a "reference" welfare loss (e.g., in a country with no inequality and with perfect loss sharing) to the welfare loss from a flood/storm. We also go beyond assessing resilience and evaluate a series of country-specific policy options (e.g. reducing exposure, increasing social transfers) and the benefits each policy produces (in terms of increasing resilience). All data used is open-source and our methods fully transparent. The approach is also validated ex-post using detailed data after a specific event, the 2005 floods

in Mumbai.

## O-2234-01

### Resilience to extreme weather: using science to inform policy

E. Woods (1)

(1) The Royal Society, Science Policy Centre, London, United Kingdom

Extreme weather can have a devastating impact on people's lives and livelihoods. It represents a major obstacle to development, often preventing people from escaping poverty or pulling them into it. Societies are not well adapted to the extreme weather being experienced today. Compounding this, future climatic and demographic changes will increase the exposure of people and their assets to this threat.

In this presentation, Professor Georgina Mace CBE FRS will outline the findings of the Royal Society's 'Resilience to extreme weather' report (see roysociety.org/resilience). The culmination of this months' evidence gathering and analysis, this policy report examines not only the risks posed by extreme weather, both now and in the future, but also the range of ways in which people can adapt and become more resilient to these risks.

Resilience-building solutions range from specific physical defences (ecosystem-based approaches, engineered approaches, and hybrids of the two) to more general principles and processes for building resilience globally, nationally and locally.

The use of scientific evidence to inform which solutions are most appropriate in which circumstances is crucial. In the context of this year's international agreements on disasters (March), sustainable development (September) and climate change (December), ensuring that efforts to build resilience are joined-up across different policy frameworks is also important.

## 2234-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

## P-2234-01

### Climate Change Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis of Indigenous Community in Western Himalaya

BW. Pandey (1)

(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Present research is an attempt to investigate the impact of microclimate change on agro horticultural crops, water supply and vulnerability of livelihood security among the local community in Upper Beas Basin of Western Himalaya. Study is based on both the Primary as well as Secondary sources of data. To collect the primary data, twenty two hamlets of the Valley between the elevations of 2000-3000 meters were surveyed on the basis of Stratified Random Sampling (SRS). Two hundred questionnaires were fulfilled along with the physical investigations of quality and quantity water and land use changes between 1954 to 2014. Attempt has been made to assess the changes in food availability, quality and quantity measurement and analysis of changes in method and mode of food supply. At the end, effort has been made to analyse future vulnerability and changes in the nature of occupations and household economy due to local climate change.

The research findings highlight that the number of livestock has been increased in the valley, while the areas under grazing land has been reduced. This is because of the privatization of the land and closing the forest area. Consequently more pressure has been exerted on agricultural land. The number of households of the nomadic herders has been considerably reduced, as the new generation is migrating towards plain for job in metropolitan areas like Delhi and Mumbai. Agricultural practices have been shifted upwards 400 meter to 1000 meter between 1954-2014. Another finding highlights that there were less than 10 hotels in Manal in 1975, which has increased to more than 1500 in 2014. Land Use Land Cover Changes, Urbanization and vehicular pollutions are the principal factors for local climate change. Growth of
Tourism based urbanization has taken place on agrarian land in the Himalayan geosystem is economically lucrative today, but can pose a risk of food crisis tomorrow as non agricultural uses of the land is increasing in the interest of the outside population on the cost of the local farmers. A planned land use from the government is of dire need to save the livelihood security and vulnerability of food supply to the local community of the Western Himalaya.

P-2234-02

Public policies and risk management in
extreme hydrological events in Southeast
Mexico

F. Tudela (1)

(1) Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste A.C., Climate Change, Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico

Extreme hydrological events have already jeopardized
development in Southeast Mexico. Their economic impacts
have been regularly assessed and exceed by far any other
socio-economic aspect. A clear example may be found in
the floods that affected the State of Tabasco in October-
December 2007, when nearly one million inhabitants
—more than half the State’s population— was severely
affected, and 80% of Villahermosa, the capital city, was
underwater. Attribution issues—natural variability, climate
change superimposed effects— remain uncertain, but some
statistical data, some of them included in this presentation,
point at the increasing relevance of anthropogenic factors.
Not only the vulnerability of socio-environmental systems
has been aggravated, but the hazards themselves are
apparently gathering momentum. Current public policies
dealing with risk management are considered now
inadequate, and will be even more defective as climate
change progresses.

This contribution focuses on these policies, which neglect to a large extent the preventative measures and adaptation approaches. It includes a comparison between the expenditures from FONDEN (Fondo de Desastres Naturales) and those from FOPREDEN (Fondo para la prevención de desastres naturales). Land use planning are also presented in terms of their effectiveness. An in-depth revision of the risk management policies, that should pave the way for new systemic approaches, will be spurred by an increasing recognition of climate change as a process that brings about a new sense of urgency.

P-2234-03

Cost-benefit analysis of flood resilience
strategies to cope with global change
impacts. Application to the Barcelona case

M. Velasco (1); R. Beniamino (2); A. Cabello (3)

(1) CETaqua, Global Change Impact Programme, Cornellà de Llobregat, Spain; (2) Aqualogy, Urban drainage direction, Barcelona, Spain; (3) cetaqua, Sustainability department, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain

Urban areas are, due to the concentration of population and economic activities, one of the most sensitive regions to natural hazards. This work presents the results of a flood damage assessment taking into account the effects of drivers such as socio-economic trends and climate changes. This work is part of the FP7 CORFU project (Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas) focusing in the Raval district of Barcelona.

The first step of this work consisted on creating a detailed
flood damage assessment for the case study area. The
implementation of a new 1D-2D coupled model was used
to obtain flood depths (Russo et al., 2014), and new stage
damage curves were developed to estimate the direct
tangible damages (Velasco et al., 2015a). The curves were
validated using data from surveys and actual reported
damages to the Spanish re-assurance. Then, combining
the hazard and vulnerability levels by using a GIS-based
toolbox, the expected annual damages (EAD) of the area
was obtained. This enables the determination of the
critical points of the district in terms of flooding impacts,
and highlights the need to implement strategies to cope
with these impacts.

For a time horizon centered in the year 2050, several future
scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes were

created. Using the previously developed tools, the EAD
values of the several future scenarios were obtained for
the Raval District (Velasco et al., 2015b). The comparison
between future and current damages presented increase
ratios that ranged between 1.5 and 4. This highlighted the
need of implementing adaptation strategies to cope with
possible future impacts.

Finally, different measures were modelled so the
corresponding damages could be calculated. Three
different levels of adaptive capacity were studied:

- Low: measures implemented should be non-structural, and only focusing on vulnerability and risk reduction. In this case, local protection measures (flood board) linked to an early warning system were analysed

- Medium: it consists of SUDS (Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems), and specifically green roofs

- High: it considers classical structural measures, which were 6 new pipes upstream the Raval district, and one storage tank in this area

By undertaking a cost-benefit analysis, the effectiveness of the strategies was assessed, and a prioritization of the most adequate ones for each scenario was done.

The non-structural strategies presented higher net benefits than the structural ones, due to their low cost. However, the structural strategies could better cope with flood impacts, but at higher costs. Nevertheless, the economic benefits of these strategies were only related to the Raval District. By extending the domain analysed, the results would be different.

References

Russo, B., Suñer, B. and Velasco, M., 2014. Flood hazard assessment in the Raval District of Barcelona using a 1D/2D coupled model. Journal of Hydroinformatics. Accepted.

Velasco, M., Cabello, A. and Russo, B., 2015a. Flood damage assessment in urban areas. Application to the Raval district of Barcelona using synthetic depth damage curves. Urban Water Journal.

Velasco, M., Cabello, A., Russo, B. and Kersting, T., 2015b. Flood damage assessment under future scenarios: the case of Barcelona. Flood risk management journal. Under review.

P-2234-04

Medium-term effects of early-life weather
shocks on cognitive and health outcomes

M. Vicarelli (1); A. Aguilar (2)

(1) University of Massachusetts, Economics department, Amherst, United States of America; (2) ITAM, Economicis department, Mexico City, Mexico

This paper investigates medium-term consequences of negative weather extremes experienced during early stages of life on children's physical and cognitive development. In rural, rain-fed agricultural settings, rainfall shocks are often cited as the most important risk factor faced by households (Progresa-Mexico 1998-99; Fafchamps et al. 1998; Gine, Townsend and Vickery 2008). Young children and pregnant women represent particularly sensitive populations to events of this nature.

The idea that stimuli or stressful conditions during critical
periods in early life can have lifetime consequences
is well established in developmental biology (Barker
1998). Previous work in the economics literature has
also shown how pervasive conditions (e.g. malnutrition,
sickness, pollution, etc.) in-utero and during the first
years of life have considerable long-term consequences.
Some of these studies identify effects of early life
conditions on outcomes at adulthood, such as income,
health, educational attainment, and physical and mental
disabilities (Alderman et. al. 2003; Almond 2006; Almond
and Mazumder 2011; Maccini and Yang 2009). In this
study we shed light on medium term impacts: test scores
for language development, working and long-term
memory, and visual-spatial thinking provide information
about specific dimensions of cognitive development. This
information, added to objective anthropometric measures
(like height and weight) and gross motor skills, has been
proven as a strong predictor of success later in adulthood (Case and Paxson 2006; Grantham-McGregor et al. 2007).

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurrent climatic event that causes severe weather shocks. This paper employs ENSO-related floods at the end of the agricultural season to identify medium-term effects of negative conditions in early child development (in utero and up to three years) in the economic and health data used in this study comes from a rich longitudinal household dataset gathered as part of Mexico's PROGRESA randomized poverty alleviation program. This database is exceptional for size and data quality and data includes valuable information for children aged 2 to 6, namely, specific indicators of cognitive development, motor skills, as well as objective anthropometric and health indicators.

Our analysis shows that, four to five years after the shock, children exposed to floods in early life have test scores in language development, working-memory, and visual-spatial thinking abilities that are 11 to 21 percent lower than same aged children not exposed to the shock. Negative effects are also found on anthropometric characteristics: children exposed in early life exhibit lower height (1.07 to 1.803 cm), higher likelihood of stunting (1.1 to 1.4 percentage points), and lower weight (0.381 kg) than same aged children not exposed to the shock. Negative effects of weather shocks on income, food consumption, and diet composition during early childhood appear to be key mechanisms behind the impacts on children's outcomes. Finally, no mitigation effects were found from the provision of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Progresa on poor rural households with children exposed to ENSO-related shocks. This might suggest that children were not prioritized in distributing relief within the household or that the cash transfer was not sufficient to buffer the liquidity constraint faced by the household and generated by the weather extreme.

Climatologists indicate that ENSO cycles will continue to affect global climate, and events might become more frequent and intense with global warming (Vecchi and Wittemberg 2009). ENSO-related studies are therefore relevant from an economic, climatic, and public policy perspective. To the authors' knowledge this is the first study to investigate the impact of ENSO-related weather shocks on human capital formation. More broadly, this study represents an important test bed to further understand the possible impacts of weather extremes associated to climate change on human capital formation (i.e. child cognitive and physical development). These types of impacts are still vastly underestimated in the economics literature.

P-2234-05

## Early warning systems for climate related extreme events: The development of an ICT based multi-hazard and multi-sector early warning platform in Kenya

E. Vogel (1) ; A. Kooiman (2) ; Z. Zommers (3)

(1) University of Melbourne, School of earth sciences, Melbourne, Australia; (2) Geo Enviago Solutions International, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) United Nations Environment Programme, Division of early warning and assessment, Nairobi, Kenya

The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report on climate change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types of

# 2235 - Reinforcing Resilience

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-2235-01

#### Tree-based energy for resilient livelihoods and ecosystems under climate change in Kenya

M. Njenga (1)

(1) ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya

Kenya has a population of 39 million people with 68%

weather extreme events is likely to increase in a number of regions across the globe. Additional pressures on socioeconomic and environmental systems due to population growth, rapid urbanization, conflicts and environmental degradation, particularly in developing countries, are likely to further increase the vulnerability of populations and to exacerbate the risks of severe impacts from climate hazards. Early Warning Systems (EWS) form an important part of national disaster risk management (DRM) strategies and are important to protect communities against the immediate threat and consequences of climate-related extreme events.

However, although great efforts have been made to improve EWS worldwide, many of the existing systems have important shortcomings: Often, EWS focus on one hazard type only, ignoring interactions between concurrent hazards. This provides no basis for providing an integrated assessment of climate impacts in a standardized way and taking into account all sectors that are vital to the functioning of societies and relationships between sectors. Furthermore, the communication of warnings is not always adequate, either by not reaching affected populations or by not providing timely and reliable warning. Finally, in many cases early warnings are not sufficiently linked to rapid response measures.

The aim of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project was to review the current state of multi-hazard Early Warning Systems in three African countries (Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso), to identify capacity gaps, to assess the needs of vulnerable communities, to review best practices for early warning communication and response and to develop a set of recommendations for decision makers to improve existing within the household or that the cash transfer was not sufficient to buffer the liquidity constraint faced by the household and generated by the weather extreme. An important gap that was identified by stakeholders is the lack of a central platform which integrates hazard warnings from relevant national agencies and provides a visual interface for accessing hazard risk data and which facilitates the communication of warnings to vulnerable groups. These findings resulted in the development of a prototype of a multi-hazard and multi-sector Early Warning Platform in Kenya, building on collaborations with partners and using information and communication technologies (ICT). This talk will present the methodological framework which underpins the development of this prototype platform and will demonstrate the web-based tool which integrates hazard data from different data sources, automatically calculates hazard impacts and disseminates subscription-based warnings and response recommendations to users, based on their data needs and preferred communication channels.

The combination of multiple forecasting datasets in one platform has several benefits: It ensures a comprehensive assessment of impacts in all major sectors, taking into account relationships between hazards and sectors; it facilitates the creation of integrated response plans and the exchange of data and knowledge between different stakeholders. Furthermore, it enhances the visibility of risk and hazard data and by this, helps to raise awareness. Remaining gaps and challenges are related to data availability and accuracy as well as to the creation of a national, legislative and institutional framework with clear roles and responsibilities. The development of an Early Warning platform requires strong partnerships with and the support of regional, national and subnational governmental and non-governmental institutions to ensure that the platform will be used by disaster managers in the long term.

of the population living in rural areas and half of her population lives below poverty line. Kenya has a land area of 580,728km out of which approximately 85% is arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) and support 30% of the population and 70% of the livestock production. Agriculture is the backbone of the Kenyan economy, directly contributing 24% of the GDP valued at KSh342 billion in 2009 and another 27% indirectly, valued at KShsh.385 billion. The country is experiencing climate-related impacts such as prolonged droughts, frost in some of the productive agricultural areas, hailstorms, extreme flooding, receding lake levels, drying of rivers and other wetlands, leading to economic losses and environmental degradation. For instance the floods of 1997/98 affected 1 million people