- if implemented properly - rendering several co-benefits such as reduced input costs and stable yields in water scarce years. More judicious use of nitrogen fertilizers decreases emissions of nitrous oxides; this approach is now incorporated into interactive mobile phone apps to convey site-specific recommendation to farmers in several rice-growing countries.

Given the significance of rice production in Southeast-Asia, this production system also constitutes the key component of comprehensive initiatives for upscaling CSA technologies, such as the recently established 'Climate-Smart Villages'. In these villages, the entirety of land use is assessed in terms of interventions towards increased climate resilience and mitigation options through participatory action research. Thus, the previous and ongoing initiatives on rice production offer to derive meaningful 'lessons learnt' for future CSA dissemination of rice as well as for other land use systems.

P-3320-25

## Potential Contribution of Supplemental Irrigation as a key Strategy of Local Adaptation to Climate Change in small holder farming in the Sudan Savanna zone of West Africa

# 3321- Health Responses

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

O-3321-01

## From here to there: promises and perils in scaling up health adaptation

K. Ebi (1); D. Mariam Otman (2)

(1) University of Washington, Department of Global Health, Seattle, WA, United States of America; (2) World Health Organization, Phe, Geneva, Switzerland

**Objective:** document lessons learned and identify opportunities and barriers to scaling up health adaptation projects in low- and middle-income countries to address current and future climate variability and change

**Data sources:** evaluation reports and other materials covering the first five years of implementation (2008-2013) of three multinational health adaptation projects covering fourteen countries (Albania, Barbados, Bhutan, China, Fiji, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Philippines Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) and qualitative data collected through a focus group consultation and interviews with 19 key informants purposely selected for their expertise and role in health adaptation to climate change

**Methods:** a qualitative review and synthesis of documents for evidence and examples of: attaining objectives and planned results of interventions; sustainability; stakeholder engagement; and community engagement; country ownership and socio-political constraints; human resources and capabilities; replicability and scalability; and health adaptation monitoring and evaluation

**Main conclusions:** The national projects increase resilience for particular weather-sensitive health outcomes by focusing on incremental improvements in policies and programs to address the current adaptation deficit associated with climate variability, and by beginning to establish enabling environments for additional adaptation. Irrespective of resource constraints, low and middle-income countries need to prepare for climate change through better understanding of potential risks, strengthening health systems, ensuring adequate policies and legislation, facilitating institutional support, and public education and awareness programs, including disaster preparedness measures. However, no project planned nor considered how to scale up successful community-based activities. Further, the activities undertaken may not be sufficient to address significant increases in climate variability and change. National health plans and budget processes need to move beyond focusing on

ON. Worou (1); B.J. Naab (1)

(1) WASCAL, Agriculture, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Irrigation is a key strategy to help farmers to adapt to potentially drier and shorter growing season projected for climate change effects in most parts of Africa, especially West Africa. Field experiments were conducted during the 2013 and 2014 in order to evaluate supplementary irrigation strategies for improving water productivity. Maize was planted on different sowing dates either rainfed or with supplemental irrigation using rainwater harvested. In general the date of sowing highly significantly affected on weight of grain under both rainfed and irrigated plots. Application of irrigation caused an significant increase in weight total dry matter biomass in 2013. In 2014, water productivity was 11.71 kg/ha/mm, 7.16 kg/ha/mm and 5.40 kg/ha/mm at early, medium and late dates respectively. A simulation study was done using the Decision Support Systems for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 4.6)-CERES model in order to optimize irrigation level at 3 option of sowing dates. Model's predictive capability was first verified by using some yield, phenology and treatments from current experiment. Simulations were then carried out for 31 years period with measured daily climatic data derived from 2 stations. The modeling showed that a window of sowing date can be implemented when it is associated with supplemental irrigation. Application of a higher amount of water or higher frequency of limited amount of water to rainfed maize could substantially increase crop yield and make it stable over years.

shorter-term activities to address climate variability to also promoting mitigation and to transforming adaptation policies and programs into multi-faceted, collaborative (multi-disciplinary), and iterative activities, with support for capacity building, knowledge communication, and institutionalized monitoring and evaluation.

O-3321-02

## Climate change impact on heat-related mortality under some RCP scenario

Y. Honda (1); H. Kim (2)

(1) University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) Seoul National University, School of Public Health, SEOUL, Republic of Korea

**Background:** In 2014, we reported the future heat-related excess mortality projections as Chapter 2 of the book by World Health Organization. In this projection, we used SRES A1B scenario and the target was elderly population, i.e., 65+ years. We updated the projection using RCP scenario and for all age groups combined.

**Methods:** We defined excess mortality identical to the WHO book: The relation between daily maximum temperature and mortality is V-shaped, and the temperature at which the mortality is lowest is called «optimum temperature (=OT)». When the temperature is higher than OT, the mortality risk is higher than that at OT. We define this difference between the mortality at higher temperature and that at OT as excess mortality.

For projection, we used RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 with SSPs 1, 2 and 3 Target periods were 1981-2000 as the baseline, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The general circulation models (=GCMs) we used are GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A, MIROE-ESM-CHEM and Norex1M-As. Of now, RCP+SSP-specific mortality rate has not been publicly available. Thus, we calculated mortality using JIASA SSP-specific population data by country, sex and 5-yaar age category.

**Results:** Regardless the GCM, excess mortality increased along with the time, and large increase was observed in China, India and Europe. Along with the temperature rise, the increase in excess mortality varied with the GCM, but the difference was smaller for nearer future. The difference due to the SSP appeared smaller compared with the difference due to the model.

**Discussion:** Impact of climate change on heat-related excess mortality will occur not only developing countries but also developed countries. This is specific to heat-related mortality, unlike other major health impacts such
as malnutrition, malaria, dengue fever, diarrhea and deaths due to coastal floods. Although «autonomous adaptation», i.e., optimum temperature «becomes higher along with the warming climate without specific adaptation policy, would occur, this ubiquitous impact all over the globe would require us to take actions for mitigation and adaptation.

Conclusion: Heat-related excess mortality would affect both developing and developed countries, and shows a good example of the necessity of cooperation all over the world.

Acknowledgements: This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S8 & S10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and the Global Research Laboratory (grant K2100400001-116000-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology, Korea.

## O-3321-03

# Global Risk Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Selected Causes of Death in 2030s and 2050s

S. Kovats (1); S. Hales (2); D. Campbell-Lendrum (3) ; J. Rocklov, (4); Y. Honda (5); S. Lloyd, (6)

(1) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Social and Environmental Health Research, London, United Kingdom; (2) University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; (3) World Health Organization, Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, Geneva, Switzerland; (4) Umeå University, Umeå centre for global health research, Umeå, Sweden; (5) University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; (6) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Climate change is likely to affect human health with important differences by world region. As climate change is likely to affect proximal and distal (upstream) risk factors for a wide range of health outcomes, the quantification of these risks and burdens is complex, and few global models are available. We will report the finding of a global assessment of the impact of climate change on selected mortality outcomes undertaken for the World Health Organization.

Future cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2050 (in the absence of climate change) was estimated using regression methods for three development futures: base case, high growth and no-growth scenarios. Global climate-health models were developed for a range of health outcomes known to be sensitive to the effects of climate: heat-related mortality in elderly people, mortality associated with coastal flooding, mortality associated with diarrhoeal disease in children aged under 15 years, malaria population at risk and mortality, dengue population at risk and mortality, undernutrition (stunting) and associated mortality. Future climate change was characterized by a medium-high emissions scenario (A1b) run through three climate models. The counterfactual was a future world with population growth and economic development but with baseline (1961-1990) climate. The annual burden of mortality due to climate change was estimated for world regions. For most pathways considered, the results reflect both positive and negative impacts on health.

Compared with a future without climate change, the following additional deaths are projected for the year 2030: 38 000 due to heat exposure in elderly people, 48 000 due to diarrhoea, 60 000 due to malaria, and 95 000 due to child undernutrition. WHO projects a dramatic decline in child mortality, and this is reflected in declining climate change impacts from child malnutrition and diarrhoeal disease between 2030 and 2050. On the other hand, by the 2050s, deaths related to heat exposure (less than 100 000 per year) are projected to increase. Impacts are greatest at a low economic growth scenario because of other rates of climate change: heat-related income countries. By 2050, impacts of climate change on mortality are projected to be greatest in south Asia. These results indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on child health by the 2030s.

A main limitation of this assessment is the inability of current models to account for major pathways of potential health impact, such as the effects of economic damage, major heatwave events, river flooding and water scarcity. The assessment also did not consider the impacts of

climate change on human security. Current models can capture only a subset of potential causal pathways, and none account for the effects of major discontinuities in climatic, social or ecological conditions.

Global climate change is projected to have substantial adverse impacts on future mortality, even considering only a subset of the expected health effects, and under optimistic scenarios of future socioeconomic development and with adaptation. This indicates that avoiding climate-sensitive health risks is an additional reason to mitigate climate change. The results indicate that significant impacts of climate change cannot be avoided, and supports the case for strengthening programmes to address health risks including undernutrition, diarrhoea, vector-borne disease, and heat extremes, and for including consideration of climate variability and change within programme design. The strong effect of socioeconomic development on the projections of future risks emphasizes the need to ensure that economic growth, climate policies and health programmes particularly benefit the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

## O-3321-04

# Managing climate-sensitive health risks in vulnerable Pacific Island communities with minimal adaptive capacity: Lessons from Rabi Island

H. Bambam (1) ; S. Moncata (2)

(1) University of Western Sydney, School of medicine, Sydney, Australia; (2) University of Malta, Institute for european studies, Msida, Malta

In coming years, the Pacific is expected to experience increasing climate extremes as periods of drought and heavy rainfall, cyclones and heat become more frequent and intense, oceans become warmer and more acidic, and sea-level rise affects artesian water causing flooding. Pacific Island communities are especially susceptible to the health impacts of climate change due to their isolation, limited land area, low lying topography, and generally high levels of inherent vulnerability, together with poverty and widespread reliance on subsistence farming. The poorest communities especially are inadequately resourced to manage current climate and health risks, and have even less capacity to prepare for and adapt to long-term climatic changes. Despite the acceptance that communities in the Pacific are highly vulnerable, very little is known about how these risks may best be managed with so few resources and the structural disadvantages typical of small island developing states. Existing data in the region relevant to climate and health is sparse, may not be relevant to particular communities, and may miss important local features. This study is an in-depth assessment of vulnerability on Rabi Island, including current health concerns, especially in relation to climate-sensitive health risks. We evaluate contemporary coping mechanisms and capacity for adaptation, in order to develop feasible and acceptable strategies in the context of extremely limited resources.

Rabi Island is a small volcanic island in Fiji situated to the east of Vanua Levu, one of Fiji's two main islands. Rabi is home to around 70 years ago, displaced by phosphate mining on their home island. The islanders have maintained their Banaba culture and language and have dual Kiribati-Fijian citizenship. In many ways, Rabi is typical of Pacific vulnerability to climate change - underlying poor health, poverty and exposure to extreme events such as cyclones - but with the added complexity of being an ethnic minority population that is especially isolated from the rest of the country. Income is very low, houses are crowded, and islanders rely on fishing and subsistence farming. Aside from coconuts that are collected for processing, there is a single cash-crop, kava, that generates most of the income on the island. Vector-borne disease, food- and water-borne and other communicable diseases, ciguatera (fish poisoning), malnutrition and direct physical trauma during extreme events are current health problems. Existing climate vulnerabilities, including threats to food security, are likely to be amplified with climate change.

We present the findings from our vulnerability assessment using data from a detailed random household survey (156 item questionnaire, 200 households, yielding data on 1500 individuals) and from focus groups of women and men in each village using Participatory Rural Appraisal
methods. We explore locally feasible opportunities to boost community resilience in the face of climate change and adaptation interventions to minimise adverse health outcomes. We discuss the relevance of our findings to other vulnerable communities in the Pacific and elsewhere.

## O-3321-05

# Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

S. Paz (1); M. Negev, (2); M. Green (2)

(1) University of Haifa, Geography and Environmental Studies, Haifa, Israel; (2) University of Haifa, School of public health, Haifa, Israel

The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists with an increase in warm days and nights, longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves and a reduction in rainfall amounts. Therefore, it is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since the ecology, development, behaviour, and survival of insects and the transmission dynamics of the diseases they transmit are strongly influenced by climatic factors (especially temperature, rainfall, and humidity). The same factors also play a crucial role in the survival and transmission rate of the pathogens.

The main parameter that affects the rate of multiplication in the insect is temperature. When the temperature increases, it tends to cause an upsurge in the growth rates of mosquito populations, decrease the interval between blood meals, shorten the incubation time from infection to infectiousness in mosquitoes and accelerate the virus evolution rate.

Most cities in the Mediterranean are densely populated. Air conditioning is used, but as part of the local mentality windows remain open for most of the hot months. Many activities, particularly social gatherings, occur in outdoor locations such as shaded balconies and outdoor restaurants - all ideal for contact with the vector.

For some disease emergence in the Mediterranean basin (i.e. West Nile virus) the linkage with climate change was proved recently; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real.

Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial for the Mediterranean countries.

We analyzed nine representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ greatly. Policy mechanisms at the regional level are limited, and depend on international organizations.

The Mediterranean countries should enhance collaboration in order to address cross-border aspects of vector transmission since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

Based on the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP)'s success in advancing national legislation and regional cooperation, we suggest that this existing framework will address the risk of VBD transmission.

Regional-level policy mechanisms should include: monitoring and surveillance systems, capacity building in and across environment and health sectors, and stakeholder awareness and participation. Regional vector management should be advanced by the Mediterranean countries before the VBD develop into regional outbreaks.

## O-3321-06

# A vulnerability/resilience framework approach

LP. Briguglio (1); S. Moncada (2)

(1) University of Malta, Islands and Small States Institute, Msida, Malta; (2) University of Malta, Institute for european studies, Msida, Malta

The presentation will draw on the literature on the health

impacts of climate change, and will re-position the arguments in a vulnerability/resilience framework. It will be argued that many communities are located in territories that are inherently prone to being negatively affected by global warming in terms of health and this will have major negative impacts on human capital in these territories. This will be the vulnerability side of the argument. The resilience side of the argument will relate to what can be done, policy-wise, to strengthen the ability of communities to evade health problems and survive, recover from, and even possibly improve their health condition, in the face of global warming. These include adaptation and mitigation measures. The outcome of inherent vulnerability and policy induced resilience could result in a net strengthening of human capital.

## O-3321-07

# Adaptation to potential shifts in malaria breeding sites: larvicide application in Sub-Saharan Africa, guided by risk maps based on remote sensing

L. Traore (1); A. Sié, (2); V. Machault (3); C. Vignolles (4); R. Sauerborn (5); P. Dambach (5); N. Becker (6)

(1) Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Service Formation Recherche et Communication, Nouna, Region Boucle du Mouhoun, Burkina Faso; (2) Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Direction, Nouna, Burkina Faso; (3) Laboratoire d'Aérométrie, Toulouse, France; (4) CNES, Toulouse, France; (5) Heidelberg University, Institute of public health, Heidelberg, Germany; (6) German Mosquito Control Association, Heidelberg, Germany

Climate change is likely to lead to shifting patterns of temporal and spatial distribution of many vector borne diseases, such as malaria. Firstly, this could lead to new areas becoming suitable for malaria transmission, particularly in higher altitudes and latitudes. Secondly we could observe epidemic patterns of malaria transmission and thirdly within the area of current endemicity, we could see e.g. a prolongation of the transmission period and a change in the productivity of breeding sites.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, significant progress has been made in providing access to bed-nets impregnated with insecticides and in offering subsidized, but still expensive malaria treatment. Both control measures are likely to have less than optimal effects (such as health care seeking drops drastically in the high transmission /high agricultural work season due to high time costs of farmers and an eb in household cash resources before the next harvest. Second, many farmers sleep in makeshift straw huts in the midst of their fields and are thus not protected by bed nets. Unfortunately the third pillar of control, blocking larval production in breeding sites through applying larvicides, has hardly been used for malaria control. Larviciding was abandoned due to the large biological side effect of the then used DDT. However, biological larvicides, derived from Bti (Bacillus thuringiensis israeliensis) and others have been developed in the meantime. They have been effectively applied for decades in high and middle-income countries in larval control programs without showing any adverse human or biodiversity side effects. In Africa however, larviciding is largely absent in malaria control. This is probably attributed to the perceived high costs of biological larvicides and the high cost of treating all breeding sites around human settlements every two weeks during the rainy season.

We developed and validated a technique using SPOT-5 satellite images to predict which breeding sites would carry Anopheles larvae and at which larval productivity. The remote sensing predictions were tested and validated with field entomological and ecological data until a high degree of agreement was achieved. We used this novel technique to test two separate hypotheses that (i) applying larvicides is a cost-effective measure for malaria control, compared to currently applied control measures; and (ii) that it makes cost-effectiveness sense to apply the larvicides only to the breeding sites with the highest larval productivity.

We present first cost and effectiveness results of a three-armed cluster-randomized trial with three arms: (i) larvicidal treatment of all breeding sites within a radius of 1,5 km of the village borders; (ii) larvicidal treatment of only those 50% of breeding sites which are identified and validated as high-productivity sites; and (iii) control clusters of villages with no larvicide application of any
kind. All study arms receive the current national routine
malaria control measures.

The results show that larvicidal treatment is highly effective both in larvae removal for 2 weeks under field conditions and to significantly reduce adult mosquito abundance in reference villages. First cost data indicate that the costs of locally adapted larviciding compare favorably to those of implemented interventions that target the targeted 50% of larvicidal intervention is about 35% less costly. Analysis of data on the effect of malaria transmission to children under five years is under way.

## O-3321-08

# The Effect of Training on Health: Biogas Development Interventions to Enhance Health Resilience to Climate Change in Informal Urban Settlements in Ethiopia

S. Moncada (1) ; H. Bambrick (2)

(1) University of Malta, Institute for European studies, Mida, Malta; (2) University of Western Sydney, School of Medicine, Penrith, Australia

This paper measures the impact of community-level Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) on public health, specifically focusing on the provision of training. It is often the case that biogas programmes do not include any training component accompanying the intervention, believed to be less expensive than simply the overlooked. However, improved sanitation facilities do not automatically translate into better health standards, unless increased awareness and education can support behavioural changes to ensure long-lasting development.

The context of this research is an informal urban settlement in Ethiopia, characterised by extreme poverty, poor sanitation and exposure to climate-sensitive risks, where a biogas sanitation project funded by ODA was implemented in 2013. The development intervention included environmental and sanitation training, provided to 45 heads of the 200 beneficiary households of the project. Quasi-experimental techniques with propensity score matching methods are applied using two waves of panel data, generated from a dedicated survey conducted among all the households.

The study finds that training, provided within the biogas and sanitation development intervention, had positive effects on a number of health indicators including self-assessed health and lower use of contaminated water from the river. Although training beneficiaries carries additional costs during implementation, the benefits are significant, suggesting long-term behavioural changes. Participants who live closer to the biogas facilities enjoyed further health benefits, reinforcing arguments for the scaling-up of biogas development and sanitation interventions inclusive of training in informal urban settlements to enhance health resilience to climate change.

## 3321-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3321-01

#### Assessment of health-related impact of climate change in Taiwan

CC. Chen (1)

(1) National Health Research Institutes, Institute of Population Health Sciences, Zhun, Miaoli, France

Objective: To provide a general framework of health impact assessment due to climate change in Taiwan. Health impacts such as heat or air pollution-related mortality and hospital admissions of cardiovascular disease and respiratory diseases, variability of meteorological factors on the dengue fever and diarrhea incidents, will be assessed for the projected climate change in 2020 to 2050.

Methods: Meteorological records during the past few decades will be collected from the Data Bank for Atmospheric Research of Taiwan. Hospital admissions and mortality data will be obtained from the National Health Insurance (NHI) dataset and Multiple Cause of Death Automated Data Entry System. Environmental monitoring

data will be obtained from the Taiwan EPA website. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) method of the World Health Organization will be used for comparisons of risk factors (such as frequency and intensity of extreme heat waves, storms, and droughts) and climate-sensitive health outcomes. Dose-response relationships for baseline climate during the period 1990-2010 will be determined and climate-attributable burden of disease (the numbers of deaths and disability adjusted life years, DALYs) for different climate scenarios predicted for the future period 2020-2050, as well as avoidable burden resulting from the effects of mitigation of GHG will be estimated. Quantitative statistical methods will be developed for uncertainties in the health impact assessment.

### P-3321-02

#### Climate Change and the use of Serious Games: responses for Neglected Tropical Diseases in Southwestern Amazonia

M. Cesario (1) ; L. Saturnino (2) ; M. Masoodian (3) ; RR. Cesario (4)

(1) Academia Magdala, Franca, São Paulo, Brazil; (2) Trinity College Dublin - University of Dublin, School of computer sciences - o’Reilly Institute, Dublin, Ireland; (3) University of Waikato, School of computer science, Hamilton, New Zealand; (4) University of Franca, Medical school, Franca, Brazil

In the Brazilian Amazon Region, Land Use/Cover Change - the main contributor to the national emissions of Green House Gases and, therefore, to climate change - equals to deforestation through anthropogenic forest-fires. The associated biodiversity loss affects the spread of vector-borne Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), due to the susceptibility of infectious diseases' vectors to environmental degradation, which in turn disrupt natural cycles. Balanced ecosystems, where those natural cycles occur, act as buffer zones between zoonosis and susceptible human populations - the Ecosystem Service known as "Infectious Diseases Regulation". This paper addresses the potential benefits of using a "serious game" as part of community-based healthcare practices, to educate local citizens and health professionals about ways of controlling and reducing the spread of NTDs in remote regions, especially in the tri-national South-western Amazonia. American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis represents an ideal challenge for the application of complex ludic educational tools, because its complex and poorly understood transmission cycle involves humans, their dogs, insect vectors, sylvatic reservoirs and other domestic animals (chicken, pigs, etc.) that attract both vectors and sylvatic reservoirs to the peri-domicile. The existing efforts to control American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis' transmission have relied, so far, on the development of either drugs (to break disease transmission with the appropriate treatment of humans and, in some countries, dogs, or to prevent people and dogs being infected, by the use of insect repellents) or vaccines (for dogs, so far). These chemically oriented efforts have helped at a slower pace than the spread of these diseases. Therefore, an effective educational tool to improve knowledge, attitudes and practices related to local people's living conditions that maintain high levels of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis' transmission is challenging and timely, especially for the locals, who suffer the burden of such Climate Change prone Neglected Tropical Diseases. Education was among the first applications of "serious games" and remains an important focus of Information Technology work in this area. This paper introduces a prototype game called Dr Ludens' LSG (Leishmaniasis Serious Game), expected to be the first game of a Doctor Ludens' series. It focuses on American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, and aims to involve lay citizens and primary health-care personnel in collective tasks around their local community and individual households, where they attempt to decrease vector density and to protect people and dogs against vector biting. This game can be easily extended to Visceral Leishmaniasis, as well as to other vector-borne endemic diseases, such as Dengue fever, dengue and malaria. In the design process of the game architecture of the so-called Dr Ludens' LSG, developed by a multidisciplinary team of computer and epidemiological scientists, is described, as well as a recent evaluation by a group of Leishmaniasis' experts. These researchers have identified several positive aspects of our prototype, as well as suggested a number of improvements to make its future deployment more effective and widespread. The implementation of these suggested improvements is intended to be done before
reaching Dr Ludens's LSG to selected local people at the study region. A longitudinal study of its use and potential educational benefits towards the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of these selected users, in regards to their diseases' preventative measures, is also envisaged. With the rapid spread of internet connectivity to otherwise remote regions, there is vast potential for application of the new generation of highly connected interactive games to disease prevention and control, by means of education and information campaigns, conducted through gaming. When people see, clearly, interconnections between Climate Change and their own lives, including their increasing risk of contracting infectious diseases, they become more likely to adopt a low carbon way of life.

P-3321-03

Impact of Climate Change on Influenza Mortality in US: A Generalized Additive Model Analysis

S. Dasgupta (1); I. Wing, (2)

(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Venezia, Italy; (2) Boston University, Dept. of earth & environment, Boston, United States of America

Each year approximately 5-20 percent of US residents suffer from influenza and more than 200,000 are hospitalized (CDC, 2014). The effect of annual influenza on the health care system is rather substantial, 3.1 million hospitalized days and 31.4 million outpatient visits with direct medical costs estimated at over $10 billion (Molinari, 2007). The influence of weather and climate on influenza transmission and mortality has been studied in a variety of ways and with varying levels of complexity, especially in epidemiology, however, there is little robust evidence that extreme temperatures and extreme humidity levels increases the risk of mortality mainly through impacts on our cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Epidemiological studies (Barecca and Shimshack, 2012; Deschenes and Moretti, 2007; Lowens, 2007; and Martens, 1998) state that colder temperatures have greater influence on mortality than warmer temperatures but hot temperatures are more likely to affect the inter-temporal distribution of mortality by minimizing the time-to-death of those individuals already nearing death. Humidity can also affect human health through a variety of mechanisms. Low humidity levels can lead to dehydration and increase the spread of influenza (Lowen et al., 2007; Shaman and Kohn, 2009; and Xie et al., 2007), while high humidity levels exacerbate the effects of heat stress because humidity impairs the body's ability to sweat and cool itself (Ahrens, 2009). Low humidity conditions, which are often accompanied by low temperatures, enhance survival times of viral aerosols (Loosli, 1943; Harper, 1961; and Schaffer, 1976). This paper utilizes generalized additive models (GAM) which includes a link function g(.) relating the mean μ to the linear predictor Xβ. The general form is; g(μ) = Xβ

Essentially, GAM is a nonparametric extension of generalized linear models (GLM), used often for the case when there is no a priori reason for choosing a particular response function and the response functions needs to be generated from the data itself. GAMs (Hastie and Tibshirani 1986, 1990) are semi-parametric extensions of GLMs; the only underlying assumption made is that the functions are additive and that the components are smooth. A GAM, similar to a GLM, uses a link function to establish a relationship between the mean of the response variable and a smoothed function of the explanatory variable(s). The idea behind using smooth functions is to remove the small variations while maintaining the major trend of each variable with a view to increase the efficiency in estimating the model. The non-parametric GAM means that it does not assume a rigid form for the dependence of the response variable on the predictors. Another strength of GAMs is their ability to deal with highly non-linear and non-monotonic relationships between the response and a set of explanatory variables.

Our results provide robust evidence of non-linear impact of both temperature and humidity on influenza mortality rates. The risk of influenza mortality is highest between minimum temperatures of -30°C and -10°C and declines as the minimum temperature goes above 8°C. In the case of maximum temperature, the risk of influenza mortality is highest in the range of -15°C and 5°C, while the effect of minimum specific humidity is highest between 5 g/kg and 20 g/kg. The medical and epidemiological literature

suggests that dry conditions result in moisture losses and lead to dehydration and increases spread of influenza by increased viral shedding (Salah et al., 1988; Loosli, 1943; Harper, 1961; and Schaffer, 1976). Results also suggest that influenza mortality is insensitive to high temperature levels. When considering the mean temperature and mean specification our results indicate that the highest risk of influenza mortality is between -20°C and -10°C and for mean specific humidity, the risk is highest between 7.5 g/kg and 15 g/kg. This range is particularly significant as Loens et al. (2007) reports that the infection and transmission of influenza virus is highly efficient at relative humidity (RH) of 65 percent – equivalent to specific humidity of 11.3 g/kg, is within this range. Thus, our findings provide empirical evidence to epidemiological experiments. These results provide comprehensive empirical evidence influential epidemiological works under laboratory condition by Cunnell et al. (2008), Lofgren et al.(2007) and Loens et al. (2007).

P-3321-04

Modelling adaptation in climate change impact assessments of heat-related mortality

S. Gosling (1); D. Hondoula (2)

(1) International Society of Meteorologylogy (ISB), Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom; (2) Arizona State University, Center for policy informatics, school of public affairs, Phoenix, United States of America

The potential for populations to respond to warmer temperatures under climate change scenarios by adaptation means that non-stationary heat-related mortality models should be applied in climate change impact assessments. The models are often based on long-standing debate as to how the adaptation response, which includes physiological acclimatisation as well as a range of behavioural adaptations, should be modeled in these assessments. The relatively limited state of knowledge on how populations may adapt to a warmer world, as well as limited knowledge on the extent to which populations may adapt, means that some climate change impacts assessments do not account for adaptation response at all. Such an approach is unrealistic and zero adaptation is improbable. Nevertheless, numerous studies have adopted this simplistic approach because there is no uniformly accepted method for modelling adaptation. Other studies have attempted to consider adaptation response by employing statistical methods, of varying complexity, including regression techniques that control for historical adaptation, interpolation of present vulnerabilities to the future, and the application of analogue¹ cities whose present climate best approximates the estimated climate of a target city as expressed by climate model projections. Even considering the existence of these disparate approaches, there has to date been no comprehensive comparison of them. In turn this has precluded the development of a standard and commonly applied technique for modeling adaptation in heat-related mortality climate change impact assessments. We outline an ongoing study that aims to compare a number of approaches for modelling adaptation by using a consistent set of input data and temperature-mortality models for several cities, with a means to understanding the relative merits of the different approaches. An ambitious goal of our research project is to recommend a standard method that may be adopted by future climate change impact assessments of heat-related mortality and to this end address an important gap in knowledge and techniques on health responses to climate change.

P-3321-05

Whether Changing Environmental Conditions of Living negate the impact of Socio-economic Development on Health Outcomes of Urban Poor?

R. Goyal (1)

(1) Ramana Group, -, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

In recent years, climate change has almost becomes synonyms with development of environmental hazards affecting human living being. The adverse effects are particularly large on those segments of populations where current burden of climate-sensitive disease is high. One
such category is urban poor which is characterized by cramp living spaces, lack of sanitation and safe drinking water, poor and unhygienic environmental conditions, poor socio-economic status etc. As a consequence, their major health and morbidity indicators (due to communicable and non-communicable diseases) and mortality rates are higher than other sections of population viz, rural and urban non-poor. It has also been observed that unlike the rural areas, programs to address socio-economic development and the healthcare needs in urban poor localities have limited impact on health outcomes. Why? Is it because living environment is quite degraded (inputs are rendered ineffective) or the interventions are not penetrating or accessed by all people to realize any measurable outcome?

This paper examines this phenomenon by taking India as a case. It compares the health outcomes for urban poor and non-poor in contemporary Indian communities against the socio-economic and healthcare developments, over a period of one decade. It also seeks to answer why development interventions are relatively less effective in case of urban poor, whereas it should have been other way around because urban poor have more intense poverty conditions and even small inputs would have made a difference.

The analysis is based on data drawn from two large nationwide surveys (NFHS II and III) carried out in 1998-99 and 2005-06 segregated for urban poor (and non-poor) using wealth index (a composite index reflecting on quality of life and possession of household goods).

The findings are likely to provide more insight into the development programming for urban poor against the backdrop of climate changes.

## P-3321-06

# The Effectiveness of Heat Early Warning System in South Korea

J. Ha (1)

(1) Korea Environment Institute, Korea adaptation center for climate change, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Heat early warning system is a first heat-wave measure to cope with the heat wave. And this system has been operating in many countries today. Evaluation of the effectiveness of heat early warning system may be utilized to present a further improvement. And these days, it has been reported that the operation of heat early warning system brings to a decrease in number of emergency services or deaths related to stroke. The aim of this study is to quantitatively examine the associations between the operation of heat early warning system and the reduction of mortality in South Korea.

In South Korea from 2008 to 2012, heat-waves occurred for a total of 8 times, 26 days. I completed cardiovascular-related death counts in four periods. The four periods were defined as the days in heat-wave and above the threshold, the days in heat-wave and below the threshold, the days in non heat-wave and above the threshold, and the days in non heat-wave and below the threshold. And, the threshold was defined as the temperature at which the risk of mortality begins to increase with increasing temperature.

The daily average of CVD-related death counts were 19.83 and 20.44 for 18 days in heat-wave and above the threshold and 16 days in heat-wave and below the threshold, respectively. In case of 1-day lagged effect, the daily average of CVD-related death counts were 18.28 and 21.13 for 18 days in heat-wave and above the threshold and 16 days in heat-wave and below the threshold, respectively. In summary, the operation of Korea's heat early warning system has a positive effect on bringing a reduction of deaths caused by heat-wave.

## P-3321-07

# Assessing Health Vulnerability to Climate Change in Morocco: Governance and Adaptation Options

K. Kahime (1) ; B. Mohamed (2)

(1) Faculty of Sciences Semulia, Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakesh, Laboratory of ecology & environment, Marrakesh, Morocco; (2) Head, Research Laboratory on Territorial

Governance, Human Security and Sustainability (LAGOS), Public law department, faculty of law, economics and social sciences of agadir, Agadir, Morocco

The climate factor plays an important role in most systems critical to life. Its considerable effect on many physical and biological systems has the potential to increase humans' vulnerability to climate change. Among these vulnerabilities, human health is highly considered. Actually, the addition to this health risks of extreme climate events, many infectious diseases are expected to change their geographical or seasonal patterns and incidence due to climate change and variability. More specifically, climate change will likely affect the distribution, prevalence and lifecycle of several vector-borne diseases - such as Malaria and Leishmaniasis - and water-borne diseases - such as Schistosomiasis. These disregarded diseases still ravage lives covertly in many parts of the Global South and are likely to be a major human health burden in the coming years due to climate change and other factors. However, and despite this alarming fact, there is still limited specific scientific evidence in this area that can serve as a relevant reference for policy-making processes in many countries.

In Morocco, infectious diseases are still a public health problem. Despite the adoption of a reformed domestic policy and the consideration of these diseases as reportable, the number of reported cases - both indigenous and imported - is constantly increasing. Given the knowledge gap in this area, the aim of this research is twofold: 1) Undertaking a vulnerability analysis of possible climate change impacts on infectious diseases in Morocco from an eco-epidemiological and socio-economic approach; 2) Assessment of Morocco's adaptive capacity and identification of existing gaps which may affect the health security of population in the future with regard to infectious diseases and their interactions with climate change. Throughout the analysis, the policy options needed to effectively monitoring and managing climate change impacts on human health - with a focus on adaptation options specific to Moroccan context - will be highlighted.

## P-3321-08

# Different heat wave definitions and their association with emergency department visits in seven major cities of South Korea

H. Kim (1) ; HL. Soo (1)

(1) Seoul National University, School of Public Health, SEOUL, Republic of Korea

BACKGROUND:

On-going climate change is accompanied by an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, impacting on human health directly and indirectly.

OBJECTIVES:

We examined the association between heat waves and emergency department (ED) visits and estimated the impact of heat waves on emergency department visits in seven major cities of South Korea to understand the health effect of climate change quantitatively. In Korea, heat-wave warning is issued by the weather office if the daily maximum temperatures is expected to be higher or equal to 33°C for 2 consecutive days. This definition is the same for all cities in Korea. We also would like to evaluate the effect of different definition of heat-wave using city-wise relative temperature rather than absolute temperature.

METHODS:

Different heat waves were defined as having at least 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures at or above the 98th percentile for warm season in each city and with daily maximum temperatures at or above 33°C for all cities. We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of ED visits for heat-related, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases using heat-wave days compared with non-heat-wave days using city-specific Poisson generalized linear models adjusted for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, day of the week, and time trends. In addition, we used time-stratified case-crossover with 28-day stratum to estimate the increase risk of ED visits associated with heat-wave, then and compared the estimates from time-series analysis with those from time-stratified case-crossover analysis. We also estimated the association between ED and duration of heat-wave with two different definitions using time-series
and time-stratified case-crossover analyses

RESULTS:

Heat waves defined as having at least 2 consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures at or above 33°C for all cities were associated with RR's of 2.79 (95% CI: 1.84, 4.23), 2.19 (95% CI: 1.39, 3.46), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.11) for heat-related ED visits in Seoul, Gwangju, and overall across all cities respectively, and heat waves defined as at least 2 consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above the 98th percentile for warm season in each city were associated with 2.44 (95% CI: 1.47, 4.06), 2.29 (95% CI: 1.66, 3.16), 1.74 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.82), and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.44, 2.25) for heat-related ED visits in Daegu, Seoul, Gwangju, and overall across all cities respectively. These estimates indicated the significant increases in the number of ED visits on heat-wave days compared to non-heat-wave days. Most of estimates suggested positive associations between heat waves and heat-related ED visits and varied among the cities. Most estimates of heat wave risk for cardiovascular and respiratory ED visits were very weaker than those for heat-related ED visits although these findings were not statistically significant. However, the estimates of heat waves risk for cardiovascular ED visits were 1.34 (95% CI: 0.63) under 33°Cabsol temperature and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.63) under 33°Cabsol temperature and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.59) and 1.24 (95% CI: 1.31) significantly indicated the positive associations between heat wave duration and heat-related ED visits in Daegu, Gwangju, and overall across all cities respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

Our findings using different definitions and character for heat waves and ED visits data from NEDIS provide supportive evidences of the health effect of heat waves for further study and policy makers to reduce the health risk of heat waves varying among areas in South Korea.

P-3321-09

Northern populations in a changing climate

T. Klimova (1) ; V. Fedorova (1)

(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Research Institute of Health, Yakutsk, Russia

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) located in the northern-eastern part of the Asian continent. On an area of 3083.523 sq. km is home to about one million people. The indigenous population of the region (Yakuts, Evens, Evens) is about 53% of the total population. Territory of Republic belongs to the zone with the uncomfortable conditions for living of the population. The main environmental factors are cold exposure, temperature, violation of photoperiodic, geomagnetic, gravitational perturbations and deficiency of trace elements. According to a research, the indigenous population of the northern territories in the process of adaptation to extreme environmental conditions to formulate and institute specific features of the constitution and metabolism to ensure efficient functioning of all body systems. These features of the northern populations of researchers attribute the high density of the body, a relatively strong development of osteo-muscular component of the body, increased fat metabolism, high reserve capabilities of the antioxidant system, increasing the basal metabolic et al. At present, the processes of industrialization and urbanization, accompanied by psycho-emotional stress, changes in diet and lifestyle, lead to the failure of established mechanisms of evolutionary adaptation to extreme factors and lead to the development of pathological conditions. About stress adaptation reserves of the organism under the influence of complex environmental factors and suggest low life expectancy, high rates of morbidity and mortality among the population of northern regions. That is, these populations carry the double burden of the adverse effects of both natural and socio-economic factors affecting health. In terms of the future of climate change, these groups are among the most vulnerable. Climate warming is expected to change in the spectrum of diseases, increase the proportion of infectious diseases, the number of cardiovascular events, of stressing factors, the changing

of nutrition. Therefore it is necessary to forecast possible trends in health and consider possible measures to maintain the health and life of humans.

P-3321-10

Integrating climate information into decision support tools for public health

R. Lowe (1) ; X. Rodó (1)

(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Climate dynamics and impacts unit, Barcelona, Spain

More frequent and severe extreme climatic events have been accompanied by the accelerated emergence of new infections, distibution and incidence of climate change directly impact the health of local populations, strain health care systems, and cause substantial economic loss. Given climate change, globalisation, increased air travel and connectivity with endemic areas, there is a need to strengthen local resilience to infectious disease threats via innovative decision support systems. Seasonal climate forecasts provide an opportunity to incorporate precurсяy climate information into decision support systems for climate-sensitive diseases. This aids epidemic planning months in advance, for diseases such as dengue fever, cholera and malaria.

Here, we present a versatile Bayesian hierarchical statistical mixed model framework, designed to quantify the extent to which climate indicators can explain variations in disease risk, while at the same time taking into account their interplay with observed confounding factors and also intrinsic features of disease dynamics. Using forecasts of climate, timely spatio-temporal probabilistic predictions of disease risk can be obtained, to guide prevention and control activities. The framework can be adapted to model any climate-sensitive disease at different spatial/temporal scales and geographical settings. We provide case studies, quantifying the impact of climate on dengue fever in South America and South East Asia. We also illustrate how model results could be translated into actionable warnings for public health decision makers.

P-3321-11

Community-Based Heat-Stress Vulnerability Assessment with Monitoring, Social Survey, and Crowdsourcing Technology for Health Adaptation

SC. Lung (1) ; DW. Wang, (2) ; SH. Tu (3) ; PS. Liao (3) ; MC. Chen, (2) ; SW. Chen (2) ; LJ. Chen (2) ; CY. Lin (1) ; WC. Wang, (1) ; FM. Huang, (2)

(1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan; (2) Academia Sinica, Institute of information science, Taipei, Taiwan; (3) Academia Sinica, Research center for humanities and social sciences, Taipei, Taiwan

Increased mortality was observed on heatwave days worldwide in recent years. According to the projected mortality changes in high income Asian countries such as Taiwan in 2030 and 2050 by World Health Organization, the increase in heat-related mortality is the highest compared to mortality change of all other potential causes due to climate change. A proactive heat-stress vulnerability assessment was conducted in support of reducing health risks and formulating health adaptation strategies in Taiwan, with emphasis on community-based heat-stress exposure assessment and response-capacity evaluation using social survey and crowdsourcing surveys. This presentation showcases scientific findings from this trans-disciplinary research framework using Taiwan, a sub-tropical island, as an example. A novel two-tier heat-stress vulnerability assessment was conducted with multiple innovative facets. First, physical (heat), chemical (air pollution), and social (behavior and response capacity) aspects of vulnerability were assessed with crowdsourcing technology as well as mature methodologies in atmospheric chemistry monitoring/ modeling, and social survey. Secondly, both direct (heat) and indirect (air pollution) exposure pathways due to temperature were assessed. Thirdly, taking advantages of the bottom-up and top-down approaches, a two-tier framework is adopted to examine important factors and associated physical, chemical, and social mechanisms at the community level as well as to identify the spatial distribution of vulnerable groups and areas at the national
level. Fourthly, the controllable factors of exposure to heat-stress and air pollutants and those of individual and community response capacities were targeted so that the health risks can be minimized by either interrupting the exposure pathway or enhancing the response capacity of the stressed population. Lastly, the vulnerability factors studied correspond directly to the respective policy options in social and health promotion programs and heat-warning system establishment so as to facilitate the science-policy dialogue. The recent increase in incidence of Coccidioidomycosis were made accordingly to enhance resilience of individuals and communities facing the challenges of more frequent heat waves in the future.

P-3321-12

Climate Change, Episodic Drought, and
Valley Fever Epidemic in California

M. Matlock (1)

(1) University of California Irvine, Public Health, Irvine, CA, United States of America

Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis) is a reemerging infectious disease that is endemic to the southwest United States (California, Arizona, Utah, Texas, Nevada, and New Mexico), Mexico, Central America, and South America. The disease results from inhalation of spores from soil fungi Coccidioides immitis or Coccidioides posadaensis, which typically occur in separate regions but manifest the disease similarly. Environmental factors associated with low elevations, sandy soil, and less than 20 inches of rain per year favor the persistence of the fungi and risk of infection. The recent increase in incidence of Coccidioidomycosis in several California counties has been attributed to large amounts of dust due to several years of drought followed by rainy seasons. However, no research has been conducted to unpack the complex linkages between climate change, soil fungal diversity, and social conditions that lead to human vulnerability Coccidioidomycosis. We are investigating communities in the deserts of the Southwest United States such as Borrego Springs, California, as part of the 'front line' of global climate change and regional drought mitigation. Borrego Springs faces an impending water crisis, with some studies suggesting the town will run out of economically viable water within 30 years. With El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected to bring rain to the region after a prolonged drought, we hypothesized significant increase in the incidence of Coccidioidomycosis. The unknown risk of Coccidioidomycosis, the longevity of infection, and the lack of proper diagnoses are expected to contribute to increasing burden of this disease in the region. This study further explores local and regional health responses, and the challenges associated with linking Coccidioidomycosis climate change impacts and adaptation in California. The study tests hypotheses linking Coccidioidomycosis incidence to soil moisture and seasonality for California communities. The study addresses barriers, benefits, risks, and trade-offs of these local health responses and we discuss the integration of climate mitigation and adaption options to reduce the negative impact of climate change on Coccidioidomycosis prevalence in a vulnerable community.

P-3321-13

The international negotiations under the
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change: Insertion of the Health
Sector and Implications for Foreing Policy

R. Milhomen (1)

(1) Fiocruz, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil

The scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and research centers around the world reaffirm the intrinsic relationship between Climate Change and Human Health. Nevertheless, the international negotiations taking place under the United Nations Convention does not fully reflect the concerns, prevention, promotion and recovery of global health. The detachment between the scientific world and the reality embraces a serious systemic risk that threatens human and planetary survival.

The time is ripe for concrete insertion of Health concerns in climate negotiations. With the creation of the Durban Platform, a new climate protocol is being negotiated, able

to determine all future developments in the fight against
Climate Change.

In this sense, the interrelationships between domestic and international politics conform to the formation of the international position of a country. Thus, the health sector has the potential to offer successful solutions to the climate negotiations, bringing new complexity able to change the world. This is far greater in developing nations which face greater risks and vulnerabilities due to climate change (UNDP, 2007; World Bank, 2010). Due to a rise in the incidence of such shocks, recent development literature has attached increasing importance to studying their impacts. For children, climatic shocks exacerbate vulnerability and place them at increasing risk. Specifically, some of the risks include separation from families, deprivation in terms of schooling, adverse impacts on children's nutrition and learning outcomes, and increased susceptibility to abuse and exploitation. Therefore, studying the impact of such shocks on child welfare is imperative. Children are not only most at risk but early intervention is the most effective means in fostering long-term change.

This is the historical and timing of insertion of Health concerns in discussions on Climate Change, as they determine the success of the agreement and cooperation between countries.

P-3321-14

Impact of Climate Change on Child

Z. Mina (1)

(1) National University of Sciences and Technology, School of Social Sciences and Humanities (S3H), Islamabad, France

Climatic shocks have adverse economic consequences for both developed and developing nations. However, the economic costs are far greater in developing nations which face greater risks and vulnerabilities due to climate change (UNDP, 2007; World Bank, 2010). Due to a rise in the incidence of such shocks, recent development literature has attached increasing importance to studying their impacts. For children, climatic shocks exacerbate vulnerability and place them at increasing risk. Specifically, some of the risks include separation from families, deprivation in terms of schooling, adverse impacts on children's nutrition and learning outcomes, and increased susceptibility to abuse and exploitation. Therefore, studying the impact of such shocks on child welfare is imperative. Children are not only most at risk but early intervention is the most effective means in fostering long-term change.

The particular focus of this study is to analyze the impact of two different climatic shocks: floods and drought, on child human capital across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The discussion of the impact of climate shocks on human capital is made in the context of both income and substitution effects and the possibility of a positive climatic shock impact is explored. If the income effect dominates we can expect a negative impact on our outcome variables, while the converse is true if the substitution effect dominates. Additionally, the study aims to elaborate the role of child, parental, household and community characteristics as well as institutional help in buffering these climatic shocks.

The data source is the Young Lives Project® and cross-sectional household data is utilized for the year 2009. The study examines the data on the older cohort of children, whose lives were documented from ages 14 – 15, and covers both urban and rural areas. The enrolment rate and three measures of cognitive ability: Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT), CLOZE test and Mathematics test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO defined Body Mass Index (BMI) z-scores and Height for Age (HHA) z-scores.

* Young Lives is a 15-year survey investigating the changing nature of childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam (www.younglives.org. uk). Young Lives is funded by UK aid from the Department for International Development (DFID) with co-funding from 2010–2014 by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and from 2014–15 by Irish Aid.

P-3321-15

Initi Traditional Knowledge for Adapting
to the Health Effects of Climate Change

J. Petrasek Macdonald (1) ; J. Ford (1) ; S. Chatwood, (2) ; WA. Cunsolo (3) ; V. Edge, (4) ; K. Farahbakhsh, (4) ; C. Furgal, (5) ; S. Harper, (4) ; ¹ Mauro, (6) ; T. Pearce, (7)
(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; (3) Cape Breton
University, Sydney, Canada; (4) University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada; (5) Trent University, Peterborough, Canada; (6) University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Canada; (7) University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia

The Inuit Traditional Knowledge for Adapting to the Health Effects of Climate Change (IK-ADAPT) project was launched in May 2012. Funded through the Canadian Institutes for Health Research (CIHR), the Guelph-Queenslab scientific research and Inuit traditional knowledge to develop an evontary base to inform policy and programming needed to adapt to the health effects of climate change. Working with Canadian Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Nunatsiavut, as well as knowledge users at multiple levels, the project is examining ways to preserve, promote, and disseminate Inuit knowledge in order to prevent, prepare for, and manage the health impacts of climate change. Having just come to the end of its final phase, this presentation provides an overview of the project, shares results from projects conducted under IK-ADAPT, and identifies next steps for enhancing the resilience of communities and northern health systems in light of a rapidly changing climate.

P-3321-16

## Arsenic Contamination in drinking water and Valuing Health Damages: A case study of Bihar

BK. Thakur (1)

(1) National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, General Management, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

The present study attempts an empirical investigation on the health effects of Arsenic on individuals in the rural areas of Bihar. Systematic random sampling was used for the selection of households and 388 households were selected from Maner and Shahpur blocks of Bihar. We used a field test kit to test the arsenic contamination level of water samples which were collected from each household. The water test results reveal that Maner's drinking water is more contaminated (excess of iron and arsenic in drinking water) than Shahpur's. 82.22% of households in the study area are having poor water quality, while 72.42% of households are having excess of arsenic in their drinking water. The mean concentration of arsenic contamination for entire study area, Maner and Shahpur is found to be 89.31 ppb/l, 111.34 ppb/l and 61.93 ppb/l respectively. The study estimates incidence rate of Arsenicosis diseases for three categories of sample: for the entire sample surveyed; for male population; for female population; and found incidence rate as 92.24, 15.53 and 105.22, respectively. The incidence rate of Arsenicosis diseases among female is highest and lowest among male children. We predicted Bivariate (marginal) probability of success in the outcome, which is defined as the probability of observing the Arsenicosis diseases for surveyed household, is estimated and found to be 0.42. Arsenosis disease is regressed with set of independent variables. Water source found to be significant and positively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. This indicates that the household which is using poor water sources is reporting more cases of illness. This also reveals those who used drinking water from hand tube wells are more vulnerable to the Arsenicosis diseases as most of the sample households draw water from hand tube wells. The study also reveals the awareness is significant and negatively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. It reveals that if household is aware about the water source there is decrease in Arsenicosis diseases. The study also finds doctor visit, work loss, and arsenic level all are significant and positively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. We find arsenic contamination level is significant and positively related to Arsenicosis diseases. This indicates the household drinking water is contaminated more and leads to more cases of Arsenicosis diseases. We also regress defensive activities i.e. water purification on set of explanatory variables. We find per capita income as significant and positively related to household defensive activities on water purification. This indicates that the higher income household installed more water purification devices. Adequate of sanitation is significant and positively related to water purification. This is also same with the per capita income and is an important finding. Depth of the hand tube well is significant and positively related to water purification strategy. This indicates that there are the lesser number of households have deep tube wells. One probable reason to this is that this more the depth of the hand tube well, better the water quality is. Water

source and awareness are significant. The study estimates the cost of illness to the household due to contaminated drinking water that comprises treatment cost and wage loss. The study finds that the poor households are more affected than the well off. The annual wage loss cost of treatment and cost of illness for sample households are estimated as INR 2437.92, INR 5942.40 and INR 8380.32 respectively. The total annual cost of illness for both the block is estimated as INR 26597969.16. The defensive activities undertaken by higher income group household are taking water purification while the lower income group household could not undertake the water purification. The cost of illness may be taken as the willingness-to- accept by the affected household. Therefore, providing safe drinking water benefits both social and economic value. The results of the present study indicate that water source and awareness are the two most significant factors on both illness and defensive activities. Due to lack of alternative safe water sources, the households are left with no choice but to use the existing available source for drinking water. The government may use various channels to make the households aware that safe water is a fundamental right. Therefore, piped water may be an effective alternative water supply to all the households. The result of this study would provide policy inputs to the policy makers to make their strategies more effective in providing drinking water which may help to reduce the Arsenicosis in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.

P-3321-17

## 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change: Emergency Actions to Protect Human Health

N. Watts (1); N. Adger (2); J. Blackstock (3); P. Byass (4); W. Cai (5); T. Colbourn (6); M. Collins (7); P. Cox (7); J. Depledge (8); P. Drummond (9); P. Ekins (9); V. Galaz (10) (14); H. Graham (11); M. Grubb (12); P. Gong (13); A. Haines (14); T. Oreszczynski (15); H. Montgomery (16); K. Warner (16) (A. Costello (15)

(1) Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, London, United Kingdom; (2) University of Exeter & IPCC (ARS WGI Chap. 12), Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) University College London, Department of science, technology, engineering and public policy, United Kingdom; (4) Umea University, Centre for global health research, Umea, Sweden; (5) Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; (6) University College London, Institute for global health, London, United Kingdom; (7) Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; (8) University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (9) University College London, Institute for Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom; (10) Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden; (11) University of York, York, United Kingdom; (12) University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom; (13) Tsinghua University, Centre for earth system sciences, Beijing, China; (14) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Social and Environmental Health Research, London, United Kingdom; (15) University College London, London, United Kingdom; (16) United Nations University, Institute for the environment and human security, Bonn, Germany

In 2009, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change called climate change "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Five years on, a new multidisciplinary, international Commission has formed to to map out a comprehensive response to climate change, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide.

The Commission represents a collaboration between over 80 European and Chinese climate scientists and geographers, social and environmental scientists, biodiversity experts, engineers and energy policy experts, economists, political scientists and public policy experts, and health professionals - all seeking a response to climate change which is designed to protect and promote human health.

The Commission's work is divided in to five inter-related chapters. It begins by conducting a review of the climate science and its subsequent impacts on human health since 2009, before assessing and presenting policy response options around four central themes: community resilience and adaptation in low-income countries; energy choices and technical solutions; economic tools and the finance; and political mechanisms. At every point, the Commission understands the policy solutions to the extent that they improve public health.
The Commission's work suggests that current greenhouse gas emissions projections and consequent climate change pose an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health. In response to this, the Commission then concludes and describes a path whereby tackling climate change could become the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century.

It also notes the unique and crucial role of the health community in responding to climate change. This is

described in terms of the importance of adequate health impact assessments to guide mitigation and adaptation policy; the role of health and health systems as a tool for building community resilience; and the power of the health professional as a messenger that can communicate the risks and opportunities of climate change as local, immediate, and personal.

The Commission's work has now been completed, and will be published in The Lancet in May 2015.

# 3322a - Representation of technological dynamics and societal transformation

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-3322a-01

#### Unprecedented urbanization and challenges to model them in IAMs

##### S. Dhakal (1)

(1) Asian Institute of Technology, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Pathumthani, Thailand

World has witnessed unprecedented urbanization – with 2.8 billion urban residents added between 1950 to 2000 and more 2.8 billion more by 2050. Projections show that future population rise will mostly comprise of the urban population. Rapid urbanization leads into rapid rise in energy use and CO2 emission since such urbanization in taking place rapidly in economically growing regions of the developing world where per capita CO2 emission in urban areas are far higher than the national averages. Our analysis shows that urbanization is the key and irreversible global trend for now. Recent IPCC Mitigation report makes it explicitly clear that the next 2–3 decades are crucial for low carbon development and our ability to orient the new urbanization to low carbon pathway will define our ability to tame global emissions trends. New urbanization calls for rapid deployment of infrastructure in small and medium scale cities and lock-in cities into particular carbon trajectory. For example, China has unveiled a new urbanization plan in March 2014 to boost urbanization to 60% by 2020 that aim to invest 7–8 trillion dollars in urban infrastructure by 2020. The implications of the choice of urban forms, urban design and infrastructure in new urbanization on global emission occurs though embodied emission in materials used in infrastructure, such as cement, steel, aluminum and others which are carbon intensive as well as through the direct emissions due to use of those infrastructure which also lock urban system into particular technological choice. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have shown our cumulative carbon budget for 2000–2050 to be about 1000 GtCO2 to stay under 2°C climate stabilization; some early studies are showing that over one third of that could come from infrastructure sector alone assuming residents in the developing countries catch up to the level of per capita infrastructure stock of the average developed country residents. However, given the enormous potential of urbanization to influence global carbon emission and its multi-faceted implications, our analysis suggests that the ability to model urbanization and its implications in the current Integrated Assessment Models and other large scale global models remains extremely poor. We argue that the next frontier in global and regional IAM models lie in addressing the full scale implications of the type and extent of urbanization in economic, infrastructural, social, geospatial and bio-spherical domains. This presentation will dwell on these issues and opens much needed dialogues and discussions on how to take-on this challenges in the modelling community to develop a new generation of Integrated Assessment Models.

### O-3322a-02

#### Title not communicated

##### P. Ciais

Abstract not communicated

### O-3322a-03

#### Links between energy systems models and economic models: learning from the IEA ETSAP experience

##### B. O Gallachoir (1) ; J. Glynn (1)

(1) University College Cork, Environmental Research Institute, Cork, Ireland

In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insights into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. In this paper, we summarise modelling methodologies developed in the IEA ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level and at a national level.

ETSAP is a unique network of energy modelling teams from approximately seventy countries involving 177 institutions over the world, well beyond the number of its contracting parties, who are the governments of eighteen countries and the European Commission. ETSAP was one of the multilateral technology initiatives (formally called Implementing Agreements) initiated in 1976 under the aegis of the IEA. ETSAP evolved from initially analysing existing tools to evaluate R&D strategies to the combination of the energy flow optimization approach with macroeconomic top-down modelling, technology learning and stochastic modelling.

This paper summarises a range of different methodological approaches to developing linkages between energy systems modelling and economic modelling, drawing on a significant rich and body of analysis. The energy systems models discussed are bottom-up (BU) techno-economic linear optimisation engineering TIMES models. TIMES is a techno-economic model generator for local, national or multi-regional energy systems, which provides a technology rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long-term (20–50 years), multi-period time horizon. TIMES computes a time varying inter-temporal partial equilibrium on inter-regional markets. The objective function maximises total surplus. This is equivalent to minimising the discounted total energy system cost while respecting environmental, technical and scenario constraints. This system cost includes investment, operation and maintenance and fuel import costs, less export income, terminal technology values and salvage values. The top-down (TD) macroeconomic models range from single producer–consumer agent production function models, to multi-region structural computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The paper compares soft-linking approaches (e.g. between TIMES and CGE models) and hard-linking (e.g. TIMES-MACRO).

The analysis demonstrates that the range of economic impacts of decarbonisation is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation's decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2% by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel export nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5% GDP per year by mid-century.

The national modelling studies outlined here show that
burden sharing rules and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost and underestimate the demand response caused by technological paradigm shifts in a decarbonised energy system. The approaches outlined here have guided the evidence on hybrid models and their use in legislation. They continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved.

The paper concludes with a number of challenges that are necessary to address, including i) the uncertainty in exchanging price information from BU to TB models in soft-linking hybrid models and ii) the difficulty in capturing satisfactorily the changes in investment flows that arise due to large structural changes in the energy system.

### O-3322a-04

#### Developing pathways for zero poverty and zero emissions

**H. Winkler (1)**

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Rondebosch, South Africa

Poverty eradication has been a priority of developing countries for a long time, and this is reflected in the UNFCCC. Much more recently, framing a global goal on mitigation has been advanced, aiming at net zero emissions by 2050. In the post-2015 'development agenda, the first Sustainable Development Goal is to 'end poverty in all its forms everywhere'. How to achieve zero poverty and zero emissions?

The problem is easy to state, any 'solutions' are hard to realise. It is easy to support Oxfam excellent slogan, 'to make poverty history'. And relatively easy to model zero emissions - though at what cost. Yet in developing countries, climate action needs to be in a way that reduces poverty and inequality.

Among South Africa's many development challenges, the National Development Plan identifies poverty and inequality as the foremost [1]. The same plan also refers to reducing emissions and the climate policy of GHG emissions following a 'peak, plateau and decline' trajectory [2]. To achieve both zero poverty and emissions in South Africa's energy economy is challenging [3].

Ongoing research seeks to model multiple development-climate objectives in SA's energy economy, aiming to provide information that is credible, analytically rigorous and is a story that enables interest in generating themselves in a different future. This builds on a long-standing energy model development at the ERC, and more recently links with top-down economy-wide models, also with teams in other developing countries [4, 5].

Scenario of deep decarbonisation for South Africa - 14 Gt CO2-eq in SA's energy sector (scenario 14 Gt energy from 2016 to 2050 [3] - and meeting the multiple development objectives is possible. The results of linked modeling of the 14 Gt energy scenario suggest it is technically plausible, but has negative welfare effects.

Earlier work has made the case instruments such as 'reusable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) would better frame action in developing countries [6-11]. But if zero poverty cannot be achieved, as recent results suggest, what is the implication for ambitious climate action? The ERC's research agenda will continue to analyse these wicked problems, and can only benefit from exchange of creative thinking with others grappling with this trilemma [12].

We do not think, however, that mathematical models alone will provide any 'solution space' (we tend to think of it more as a process). Through experience with long-term mitigation scenarios for South Africa [13, 14] and the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) programme in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, we think that the co-production of knowledge and its use of facilitated stakeholder process is powerful in helping a transition to zero poverty and zero emissions societies.

To realise zero poverty and zero emissions, a new social contract is needed [15]. What might the general idea of a social contract look like in a story of a different South Africa? SA has unemployment of 25% (40% by a broader definition), with even higher shares among youth. This emerged with past industrial policy focused on energy intensive sector growth. But if employment were reduced in mining, energy supply and beneficiation, where would it be created? One cannot simply assume unemployed are absorbed by an economy-wide model, without asking whether unskilled youth with no work experience would indeed find real jobs. Some SA economists believe employment-intensive sectors like agriculture and textiles are dead-ends. Others think more employment-intensive growth is possible, and may be helped by a small wage subsidy. We will continue to research, in various ways, the goals of zero poverty and zero emissions.

### O-3322a-05

#### Tipping point policies for energy transformation - assessing their likely effect

**M. Jaccard (1)**

(1) Simon Fraser University, Resource and Environmental Management, Burnaby, British Columbia, France

A global climate agreement will not soon lead to a single global carbon price. But 10 years of efforts by individual and groups of jurisdictions have provided valuable lessons on the design of other types of market-oriented and regulatory policies that can foster tipping points in the costs (financial and psychological) of energy system transformation. Assessing the likely effect of such policies is a challenge for energy-economy-emissions modelers. This talk summarizes some of the challenges and possible solutions.

## 3322b - Development of pathways: their mix of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties and their future under a changing climate

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### O-3322b-01

##### Modelling Efficient and Equitable Scenarios for a Carbon Constrained World with TIAM-MACRO

**S. Kypreos (1) ; J. Glynn (2) ; B. O Gallachoir (2) ; M. Gargiulo (3) ; A. Lehtila (4)**

(1) Honorary Senior Scientist of Paul Scherrer Institut, LEA, Villigen, PSI, Switzerland; (2) UCC, Cork, Ireland; (3) E4SMA, Turin, Italy; (4) VTT, Espoo, Finland

We generate efficient climate change mitigation scenarios of low emission pathways for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such that global warming remains below 2 °C with high probabilities. Then, we balance the cost of mitigation for different world regions based on equity principles and fairness. The study assumes early mitigation actions starting already in 2020 and quantifies the market penetration of carbon-free technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of GHGs emissions. The prerequisite is that the CO2 equivalent concentration will remain similar to the present levels while the temperature rise will stay below 2 °C of warming. The associated budget of Remaining Carbon Equivalent Emissions Quotas (RCEEQ) is 273 GtC for CO2 plus another 180 GtC-eq. for other GHGs, valid from the period 2020 onwards, and is imposed as constraint. This value of RCEEQ is in accordance with the
Summary report for Policy Makers of the 5th Assessment report (5AR) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Then, we evaluate interregional capital transfers originated from the industrialized world to support mitigation efforts of low income regions to ensure their participation to a binding agreement. Interregional capital transfers are expected to be a response of formal wind weather induced events in Austria is an annual average of € 1 billion (large events only). This has the potential to rise to € 4 to 5 billion by mid-century (annual average, known knows of impact chains only), with an uncertainty range of € 4 to 9 billion. When extreme events and the tails of their distribution are included, even for a partial analysis focused on extremes, damages are seen to rise significantly, e.g. with an estimated increase to € 40 billion due to riverine flooding events even after the end of the century. These highlight the need to consider the distribution of impacts, as well as the central values.

As all world regions profit from the reduction of damages under the RCEEQ constraint, it makes also sense to estimate the associated regional benefits and to compensate regions for their mitigation cost net of benefits. This capital transfers could take place with the help of burden sharing and emissions trade schemes or through join implementation projects. Therefore, the study undertakes a sensitivity analysis where a different degrees of cumulative RCEEQ constraints are assumed to differentiate on the needed capital transfers that assure fairness and equity b) different allocation schemes while in the case of full compensation we consider the needed capital transfer net of damages and finally c) a scenario of late actions under the same RCEEQ constraints is introduced to investigate potential advantages and disadvantages in terms of regional GDP impacts and the timely restricted in terms of regional temperature change. Finally we conclude on scenarios and compensation schemes that allow to define a well-balanced set of regional impacts.

This generation of efficient and equitable scenarios became possible using the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, a technology rich, hybrid general equilibrium model, integrating a full scale bottom-up engineering model with macroeconomic top-down models that allows for international trade, developed for the IEA-ETSAP community (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program www.iea-etsap.org). The model addresses the key concern for all parties of international climate negotiations which is the national economic effect of implementing climate mitigation targets and tries to define fairness in implementing early actions mitigating global warming. Coupling technology rich energy models, such as MARKAT/M TIMES and economic models gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial decarbonization and overall economic consequences of decarbonizing the energy system.

## O-3322b-02

### Bottom-up Economic Climate Change Impacts at the National Level: Known Trends, Unknown Tails, and Unknowables

K. Steininger (1); G. Wagner (2); P. Watkiss (3); M. Koenig (4)

(1) University of Graz, Graz, Austria; (2) Environmental Defense Fund, Boston, United States of America; (3) Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, United Kingdom; (4) Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria

Economists attempting to evaluate the impacts of climate change are often caught between hard theory and exceedingly rocky empirics. Impact assessment models are necessarily based on highly aggregated – and sometimes highly simplified – damage functions. This study takes an alternative approach: a bottom-up, physical impact assessment and respective monetization, attempting to cover a much broader set of impact fields, feeding directly into a macroeconomic and welfare analysis at the national level. To ensure consistency, our approach applies impact assessment at the sectoral impact chain level using shared socioeconomic pathways, consistent climate scenarios, computable general equilibrium evaluation, and non-market impact evaluation. The approach is applied to assess a broad scope of climate impacts in Austria. Results indicate significant impacts around 'known knowns' (such as changes in agricultural yield from climatic shifts), with uncertainty increased by known unknowns' (e.g. changes in water availability, irregular changes in pest and diseases) but also raises the question of unknowns

and unknowables, which may possibly dominate future impacts (such as exceedance of critical ecosystem function for supporting agriculture). Climate change, ultimately, is a risk management problem, where insurance thinking warrants significant mitigation (and adaptation) action today.

Analysis of the study result indicate that the current climate change is a response of formal wind weather induced events in Austria is an annual average of € 1 billion (large events only). This has the potential to rise to € 4 to 5 billion by mid-century (annual average, known knows of impact chains only), with an uncertainty range of € 4 to 9 billion. When extreme events and the tails of their distribution are included, even for a partial analysis focused on extremes, damages are seen to rise significantly, e.g. with an estimated increase to € 40 billion due to riverine flooding events even after the end of the century. These highlight the need to consider the distribution of impacts, as well as the central values.

## O-3322b-03

### Economics of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

L. Carrera (1); G. Standardi (2); E. Koks (3); L. Feyen, (4); J. Myski (2); J. Aerts (5); F. Bosello (6)

(1) FEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy;

(2) FEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy;

(3) Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; (4) JRC, Ispra, Italy; (5) VU University Amsterdam, VU Amsterdam, Netherlands; (6) University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of Economics, Milan, Italy

We estimate current and future economic impacts of fluvial flood risk in Italy in view of climate change under a business-as-usual emissions scenario. The methodology combines a high resolution spatial flood hazard and exposure analysis for an ensemble of climate projections with a regionally-calibrated version of a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The economic effects, output losses, are estimated per region in terms of Gross Regional Product change till 2100. Losses are estimated for two disaster risk management scenarios: with and without adaptation to changing flood conditions. Our results show that in Italy, because of climate change, current aggregated ensemble-average Expected Annual Output Losses increase fourfold without adaptation, exceeding 600 million Euro per year by the end of the century. With adaptation the increase is limited to 7 percent. The paper provides the distribution of adaptation benefits across regions, of which the cumulative value exceeds 23 billion Euro over the long term (2014–2100).

## O-3322b-04

### Title not communicated

M. Aglieatta

Abstract not communicated

## O-3322b-05

### CIECIA: A New Climate Change Economic IAM and its Assessment of Global Cooperating Abatement Schemes

Z. Wang (1); J. Wu (1); G. Gu (2); C. Liu (1)

(1) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; (2) East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

From the perspective of global economic general equilibrium, this study developed a new climate change IAM named CIECIA. The economic core of this IAM is a multi-country-sector general equilibrium model. The endogenous technology progress mode is introduced into CIECIA. Based on this IAM, three assessment principles of global cooperating abatement scheme, including effectiveness, feasibility, and fairness are presented. This study simulated and analyzed 6 kind of main global cooperating abatement schemes. The simulated results indicate that all the selected schemes can satisfy the climate protect target to 2100. Thus, they are all effective schemes. However, the schemes have quite different
feasibilities and fairness. The Stern Scheme benefits the developed countries, but is unfair to the developing countries. The Nordhaus Scheme promotes the economy of developing countries. However, it will have negative impact on the benefits of developed countries. The per Capita Emissions Cumulative Convergence and the per Capita Emissions Convergence Schemes benefit the development of middle and low developing countries most. However, these two kind of schemes will cause tremendous losses to main economic entities in the world including China. The Pareto Improvement Scheme which is developed from the Steady Economic Growth Scheme balances the fairness and feasibility in carbon abatement process and realize the Pareto improvement of economic utilities in all the participating countries. Thus, the Pareto Improvement Scheme is the most reasonable global cooperating abatement scheme.

O-3322b-06

Connection between development, other
'externalities' and climate

K. Riahi (1) ; J. Jewell (2) ; D. McCollum (3) ; S. Rao, (2) ; R. Van Dingenen (4)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria; (2) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy Program, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) JRC, Ispra, Italy

This talk will present results from the first international modeling comparison project focusing on the co-benefits from climate mitigation for air pollution, health and energy security objectives. The talk will focus on the extent of the co-benefits for different major economies and the climate goal of 2C.

3322 – POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-3322-01

Energy-economy-environment applied
models: insights, developments and limi-
tations

R. Bibas (1) ; J. Lefèvre (1)

(1) International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report shows the end of the controversy between top-down and bottom-up models that was the essence of the results from previous reports. State-of-the-art models have evolved towards more integration, thus becoming ever more complex. In this new era of integrated and hybrid models, models are classified according to criteria such as coverage, flexibility and sectoral details rather than the deep mechanisms themselves within the model.

The current approach to tackle the uncertainties is to create scenario ensembles to compare the reactions of models. Indeed, this top-down approach examines model results rather than starting with a description of model structures to characterize the outcome of model behavior. By contrast, we seek to complete this type of studies by developing a bottom-up approach to create a taxonomy based on the depicted representation and the implicit assumptions within the models. Therefore, we propose to examine the constitutive building blocks of the model to control the structural uncertainty inherent to the forward-looking analysis. Thus we posit that the full picture is needed to understand the forward looking potential of each model. Our goal is to understand the deep mechanisms driving the joint evolution of the energy, economy and environment systems.

This paper presents an updated a thorough taxonomy of the state-of-the-art models from the Fifth Assessment Report. This taxonomy builds on the existing taxonomy, in particular on the historical (and obsolete) opposition between top-down and bottom-up models to bring to light the building blocks of the models. Understanding the building blocks of the models gives an overview of their inner mechanisms as well as the explicit or implicit assumptions in the model. Furthermore, it presents all models in an unified manner in a summary table with a unified vocabulary. The comprehensive review of the

models allows a relevant assessment of their potential to produce forward-looking scenarios to reveal insights about the decisions to be made for climate change mitigation. This paper then examines the forward-looking analysis potential of each approach and concludes on their respective uses.

This bottom-up approach is a complex endeavor, but the analysis of building blocks constitutes of the models shed light on the diversity around key drivers. We identified several groups of deep mechanisms: demand drivers in relation with structural changes, the incorporation of technology, the representation of economic choices and the evolutionary factors of society. Therefore, we want to understand the drivers of the transition both in the short run and in the long run to discuss the global articulation between climate change mitigation and economic development

P-3322-02

Transparency in Integrated Assessment
Modeling

R. Calel (1) ; DA. Stainforth (2)

(1) UC Berkeley, Berkeley, France; (2) London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom

The basis for concern over anthropogenic climate change is founded in the physical sciences but the rationale for action is rooted in the social sciences. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are the main tools for combining physical and economic analyses to assess climate change policy. To a large extent, however, these models are black boxes to those outside the integrated modeling community. Economic assessments of climate change consequently risk misrepresenting physical understanding of the climate system, while physical science may fail to focus on the most salient issues for economic and policy assessments. Here we open the lid and resolve physical science differences between three of the most studied IAMs. We argue for greater cross-disciplinary transparency in this highly policy-influential field and for greater debate over the appropriate level of model complexity. Researchers, and research funders, should resist the temptation to increase complexity beyond the point where disagreements and uncertainty about modeling assumptions can be easily identified and debated openly with relevant experts. We suggest alternative ways to improve representations and extend the use of IAMs while maintaining and promoting transparency.

P-3322-03

Is there a reason for strong mitigation
? The role of time preference, inequality
aversion and catastrophes

F. Dennig (1) ; M. Budolfson, (2) ; M. Fleurbaeya (3) ; A. Siebert, (4) ; R. Socolow (5)

(1) Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America; (2) Princeton University, Uchv/wws, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America; (3) Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton, United States of America; (4) Princeton University, Climate futures initiative, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America; (5) Princeton University, Mechanical engineering, climate futures initiative, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America

The debate about how strong and quick mitigation policy should be in the coming decades has mostly revolved around the discount rate, with the conclusion that only a discount rate much lower than ordinary market rates can justify drastic action toward abating emissions. There have been, however, some questions about what the relevant market rate is (the riskless market return is actually quite low), and some explorations of more pessimistic estimates of the extent of damages for temperatures rising more than 3°C above the pre-industrial temperatures.

In this paper, we develop a variant of RICE, called NICE (for Nesting Inequalities, Climate and Economy), which separates the ethical parameters of the social objective from the behavior of the economic agents and introduces empirical estimates of inequalities in living standards within the twelve regions of RICE.

The first feature (separating ethical parameters from
(behavior) enables us to take the agents' saving behavior as given while we test the policy implications of various configurations of the key ethical parameters of the social objective: the pure rate of time preference and the degree of aversion to inequality across and within generations. The second feature (inequalities within regions) enables us to test whether the presence of huge inequalities in some regions matters for the design of optimal mitigation policy, depending on the distribution of the impacts of climate change and the distribution of abatement costs.

The first result we obtain is that the most aggressive mitigation policy would be warranted if the social objective was to maximize the total amount of consumption over all populations across space and time (no time preference, no inequality aversion). This is due to the importance of damages and the relatively modest abatement costs in the model.

The second result is that while the debate on the consumption discount rate has shown that this rate matters a lot for the pace of the optimal abatement policy, this discount rate is made of several components via the Ramsey formula:

discount rate = pure time preference + inequality aversion x growth rate,

and in this formula, a low inequality aversion does more for mitigation than a low rate of time preference, for the usual ranges of plausible values considered for these ethical parameters. This is due to the (relatively optimistic) assumptions in NICE (adopted from RICE) about the growth rate, which multiplies the former parameter in the Ramsey formula.

Our third result is that the role of these two ethical parameters is substantially muted when the damages are greater than in the standard damage functions of RICE, or when they affect the growth rate and not just the level of consumption. Such results echo earlier work by Dietz and Stern, Moore and Diaz.

Our last set of results is that the presence of inequalities within regions does not affect the optimal mitigation policy much when the damages and abatement costs are proportional to consumption. In contrast, if damages fall more than proportionally on the poor and less on the rich, the outlook of policy and of the role of ethical parameters changes dramatically. A strong mitigation policy may then be justified, and even more so with a strong inequality aversion, due to the implied value of protecting the future poor from strong damages. A progressive distribution of abatement costs also reinforces mitigation in the optimal path, and more so with strong inequality aversion.

The general conclusions of this paper are: 1) inequality aversion between and within generations is a crucial parameter in the design of the optimal mitigation policy (unless damages are much greater than usually assumed, in which case ethical parameters matter less); 2) the distribution of damages across income groups is equally important over the range of sensible assumptions; 3) in particular, distributions of damage that are less than proportional - poor bear larger burden than their share of income - will be stronger mitigation policy. The latter two points indicate that the distribution of damage with respect to income is an important field for future research.

## P-3322-04

# City Sustainability Risk under Climate Change: A Strategic Scan Methodology

K. Doust (1); J. Lam, (1); C. Wang (1); T. Doust (2)
(1) University of NSW, Research Centre for Integrated Transport Innovation (rCITI), Sydney, NSW, Australia; (2) Windana Research Pty Ltd, Research, Sydney, Australia

Reviewing the 2011 Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report by UCCRN and the need to understand how climate risk relates to different cities and infrastructure sectors, the paper discusses transport system vulnerability in both car based and public transport based modes, bringing into play the vulnerability of different configurations of city transport networks and technologies when faced with climate change related hazards. Transport systems are designed to have an operational performance and are expected to contribute to a city's overall sustainability. However, under climate change related hazards, the transport system is at

risk of being in a failed state, either below its expected operational performance level, or unavailable all together. The paper introduces the types of failed states for different modes and considers how the vulnerabilities can be better understood by first understanding the effect on reliability and availability of service. Climate change hazards can be viewed as an outcome of unsustainable practices in our built environment, infrastructure and use of resources. Sustainability itself is therefore a key contributor to mitigation of climate change hazards, but conversely climate change hazards, put at risk the sustainability improvement we strive for in our cities. The paper explores measuring the vulnerability to climate change hazards, in terms of the change caused to sustainability performance when the transport system suffers loss in reliability or availability. A methodology that utilises accessibility as a useful measure in social and economic aspects of sustainability, generates visual sustainability metrics based on the concept of a sustainability goal in 'environmental sustainability - accessibility space'. A city's sustainability performance in relation to the goal is generated using plots of environmental sustainability & accessibility for each travel zone pair in the city. A collective plot of sustainability measures for individual zonal pairs creates a simple, but analytically rich visualisation, giving insight into the position, spread and internal distribution trends for a city's urban, rich and internal transport system failed states, inclusive of the impacts of climate change hazards on travel time reliability and service availability, the paper explores the effect on the sustainability performance using the methodology. A particular strength is that the metrics are derived from data sets more likely to be found amongst transport and city planning departments. The paper presents Sydney case study visualisations to illustrate the type of high level outputs that can be built from this systems approach, to discern the merits of different resilience scenarios. With this methodology and the assistance of readily available GIS/T software, the sustainability metrics are able to be translated into spatial visualisations, to enable discernment of sustainability performance differences within the city. These metrics can also be applied in a way that expresses sustainability performance in terms of a sustainability risk ranking. High risk, where sustainability performance is poor, is indicated by low metric values. Low risk, where satisfaction is high, is indicated by a higher metric value, above a community accepted minimum target. A grid concept likened to a risk matrix can be formulated allowing each zone pair to be assigned a sustainability risk rating. The sustainability risk boundaries are specific to each city, and influenced by the population's estimated resilience. The paper discusses this approach of sustainability risk rating, illustrating the technique of translating this into a visual graphic in geographic space using geographic information system (GIS) thematic mapping. Visualisations of this type can be used to inform decision makers (community & government agencies) in the process of choosing climate change policies and programs for a city. The paper concludes with a discussion of next steps and need to further case study the work in conjunction with other researchers and with an initial selection of cities and their governments/agencies.

## P-3322-05

# A Research on the Multi-country-sector Economic Growth and Global Governance of Carbon Emissions under Global Carbon Taxes

G. Gu (1); Z. Wang (2)
(1) East China Normal University, Population Research Institute, Shanghai, China; (2) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

This paper focuses on the national/sectoral levels using a climate-economic integrated assessment model named CIECIA to have a research on changes of the multi-country-sector economic growth and carbon emissions under different global carbon tax rates and tax distribution schemes. The results indicate that carbon tax policies have obvious promoting effects on the carbon
abatements of the developing countries. The accumulative carbon emissions of China and India from year 2016 to 2100 can be reduced by 69.27GtC and 57.78GtC separately, whereas the carbon emission reductions of the developed countries are smaller under carbon tax policies because of their low abatement potentials caused by higher initial low-carbon technologies, lower economic growth rates, etc. In the simulations of four international carbon tax distribution schemes, the equality principle which is based on the so-called benefits China mostly, while the carbon emission per capita principle and the payment ability principle benefit countries with large populations and low economic developments e.g. middle & low developing countries mostly. Specially, the carbon emissions per capita principle is harmful to China because the population of China will decrease after 2030, whereas its carbon emission demand will still increase for its rapid economic development. Investing carbon tax returns to the Knowledge capital for improving process technology progress will increase the carbon abatements, especially in developing countries. While the investing rate of knowledge capital from carbon tax return reaches up to 50%, the accumulative carbon emissions of China and India from 2016 to 2100 will be reduced by 69.27GtC and 57.78GtC separately. However, the developing countries have relatively lower emission reductions because of their higher initial capital knowledge levels, lower carbon tax returns, etc.

P-3322-06

A bottom-up approach to improve local-scale understanding and decision making in responding to climate change

A. Jakeman (1) ; S. Elsawah, (1) ; J. Guillaume, (2) ; T. Filatova, (3)

(1) Australian National University, ICAM, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra, Australia; (2) Aalto University, Water and development research group, Espoo, Finland; (3) University of Twente, Centre for studies of technology and sustainable development, Enschede, Netherlands

Integrated assessment models of global change require improvements to better quantify climate change impacts and to represent the effects of adaptation decisions at local scales. This is especially relevant for understanding the consequences of local decision making on land use change processes, which varies significantly across cases. Assessment of realistic adaptation options to climate change at local scales also requires recognition of relevant governance and behavioural aspects in any modelling and analysis rather than making over-simplified assumptions such as relying solely on profit maximization. Methodologically, there is also a challenge of studying these processes through the continuum between collecting (often qualitative) data on local stakeholders' decisions and tracing the cumulative impacts of those local decisions in simulation models (often quite formal and quantitative). This presentation provides an overview of model-based ways to contribute to incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems, and hence improve understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The presentation then specifically tackles the challenge of bridging the qualitative and quantitative by presenting a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative). The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent-based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) Building an all-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) a computational, in this case agent-based, model. We apply the proposed methodology to the case of ICT-mediated future irrigation in South Australia, which faces the potential of aggravated water scarcity under a changing climate. In particular, we focus on local decision-making of winery holders - both at individual and community [TF1] levels - with respect to their understanding of risk of water shortage and chosen adaptation strategies. Finally, we use the strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the

richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods, deepening the understanding of decision making during the construction of an Agent Based Model.

P-3322-07

Assessing future energy and climate pathways in an uncertain World: stochastic and parametric framework in TIMES models

A. Kanudia (1) ; M. Labriet (2)

(1) KanORS-EMR, NOIDA, UP, India; (2) Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid, Spain

Uncertainty introduces a new dimension in the decision making environment that simply cannot be captured by scenario analysis. Hedging strategy is not necessarily a combination of deterministic solutions; new options may emerge dominant with explicit treatment of uncertainty. For example, perfect foresight of no emission abatement may favor coal, and that of severe emission abatement may favor renewable sources, for near term power sector investments. However, under a stochastic cumulative emission bound, gas may become the most appealing solution for decision-makers, as it is relatively short-lived, cheap and not as polluting as coal. We see several examples of this dynamic in the runs that we propose to present.

Further, it is not easy for decision makers to assign probabilities to long-term uncertainties like abatement levels imposed in a future changing climate. Analyzing a wide range of probabilities of key uncertainties would provide more useful insights to policy makers.

To demonstrate, stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated with each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as "super-hedging" actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones.

The combination of stochastic programming and parametric analysis proves to be powerful for policy formulation as it delivers useful insights with minimal assumptions from the policy maker.

P-3322-08

2030 Climate Targets in Sweden: An Integrated BU and TD Approach

A. Krook-Riekkola (1) ; B. Charlotte (2) ; E. Ahlgren (3) ; P. Söderholm (4)

(1) Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Luleå, Sweden; (2) National Institute Of Economic Research, Environmental economics research division, Box 3116, 103 62 Stockholm, Sweden; (3) Chalmers University of Technology, Division of energy technology, dep. of energy and environment, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden; (4) Luleå University of Technology, Economics unit, Luleå, Sweden

The aim of this paper is to identify the role of biomass in meeting stringent Swedish climate targets in the year 2030. This is achieved by improving the existing soft-linking between TIMES-Sweden (national energy system model) and EMEC (national CGE model), with special emphasis on the representation of biomass in the two models. While the generation of electricity and heat is close to carbon-free, the Swedish industry sector and transportation has remained carbon-intensive. Biomass can play an important
role for CO2 reductions both in the industry sector (e.g. the iron and steel industry) and for transportation (e.g. biofuels). Some estimates indicate that the already high use of biomass for energy could double and still be ecologically sustainable (Börjesson et al., 2008), however, biomass will never be an unlimited resource.

The question is where, and to what extent, biomass can be used in ecologically and economically sustainable ways, the most cost-efficient allocation of this limited biomass can be assessed with a national energy system model covering the entire energy system, such as TIMES-Sweden. Moreover, the development of the industry sector (i.e. the demand for energy related goods and services) will both depend on future energy prices and on the remaining economy. Those are aspects that could be assessed by soft-linking TIMES with a national CGE model such as EMEC. A soft-link between the two models has been established (see Krook-Riekkola et al., 2013). A detailed soft-linking process, i.e. providing feed-back between the two models on a disaggregated level, was made possible by EMEC having a more detailed description of the energy use compared with many other CGE models. Nevertheless, CGE models are in general based on aggregated historical and current economic flows, which make it challenging to consider new fuels or technologies, such as different kinds of biofuels. In this present Study, EMEC (the CGE model) has been modified also to capture the competition between conventional energy commodities and biofuels, which facilitate an improved feed-back between the two models and in the end an improved cost analysis of potential national Swedish climate targets. The soft-link now includes a disaggregated feed-back from TIMES-Sweden with different kinds of biomass use, including both energy intensities and cost figures, to the EMEC model. TIMES-Sweden has been improved accordingly. Preliminary results from when soft-linking the two models shows that the biomass play an important role in meeting tough Swedish climate targets. Biomass, used efficiently, can reduce the cost of meeting a national climate target and still be within an ecologically sustainable level of biomass harvesting.

### References:

Börjesson P., S. Linder and T. Lundmark (2008). Biomass in Sweden - a vast but still insufficient resource. In "Bioenergy - for what and how much?", edited by Birgitta Johansson, Formas Fokusera.

Krook-Riekkola, A., C. Berg, E.O. Ahlgren, and P. Söderholm (2013). Challenges in Soft-Linking: The Case of EMEC and TIMES-Sweden. National Institute of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 133.

## P-3322-09

# A household perspective on ecosystem services: a network approach

A. Tironi-Silva (1); LE. Delgado, (1); V. Marin, (2)

(1) Fundación CTF, Santiago, RM, Chile; (2) Universidad de Chile, Departamento de ciencias ecológicas, facultad de ciencias, Santiago, Chile

Addressing global climate change (GCC) is one of the major social, political and economic challenges of humanity for the next decades. Scientific evidence suggests that this process already started a few years ago and will last for hundred and even thousands of years, with a scientific consensus on the changes this global phenomenon will imply in climate, ecosystems and human societies. However, there still is uncertainty about the magnitude of their impacts, especially in terms of ecosystem services and social welfare, as these depend ultimately on our social response at local-global scales. In Latin America and the Caribbean, millions of people depend, to one degree or another, on the services provided by much of their well-being and production system relate to live in diverse and healthy ecosystems. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationships between natural and social systems to be able to understand the eco-social impacts of global climate change. This project aims to map, using an approximation of complex networks, natural and social capital in rural populations. These eco-social networks will be built at the household level using trans-disciplinary tools such as application and analysis of socio-ecological surveys & interviews, development of conceptual eco-social models and the development and application of network models and metrics (quantitative analysis). The project has been developed in two watersheds in southern Chile, as a case study. We already have more than 370

surveys of use of ecosystem services in rural households. Our approach tries to use complex network theory to construct a "map" of the use or demand of ecosystem services (natural capital).

Our current approach is to develop quantitative, star-shaped networks of surveyed services (wood & water usage, water treatment, hopefully recreation) with households as center, nodes to try to make the social interactions that constitute "bridge" social capital (committees, associations, subsidies, etc.) trying to find relationship within these two forms of capital. In our social capital networks, the household is also the center node of a star shaped network composed of social capital "bridge" relationships -water committees, unions, neighborhood councils, government subsidies.

Our results show different patterns of natural capital depending on the level of urbanization of each watershed. Those localities located on more natural landscapes showed a higher diversity and uniqueness of patterns of use of ecosystem services. Our method provides an inexpensive, flexible tool to assess ecosystem services demand at household level.

Further developments could include coupling of these networks of natural capital to biophysical models to include the offer of services from ecosystems, thus modeling the whole dynamics of ecosystem services, from offer to demand. We need to improve our knowledge of the dependencies of our wellbeing with natural ecosystems to build resilient neighborhoods and prepare our societies to adapt for an increasingly 'uncomfortable' planet.

## P-3322-10

# The national macroeconomic effects of delayed action in meeting a global 2 degree climate target

M. Winning (1); C. Mcglade (1); J. Glynn (2)

(1) University College London, Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom; (2) UCC, Cork, Ireland

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations have previously sought to reach a global agreement on how to limit climate change to 2°C. Despite progress over the past decades, and whilst nearly all countries have signed up to this 2°C threshold, no such comprehensive framework has yet been agreed. Whilst there is renewed focus for the COP21 negotiations to be held in Paris in 2015, the possibility still remains that there will be further delays on how to limit climate change to 2°C will result in increased costs for different nations.

Part of the reason for these successive failures, and a key concern for each party at the international climate negotiations in 2015, is the anticipated national economic effects of implementing ambitious climate mitigation targets that are consistent with the pledged agreement to limit climate change to 2°C. However, further delays will tend to only exacerbate these issues. The aim of this work is to use hybrid modelling techniques to determine the economic effects on regional economies of limiting global warming to 2°C. We also aim to explore the macroeconomic implications of the delays that have already occurred in reaching and implementing a global agreement, and how these will be amplified if there is further delay.

We use the TIAM-UCL energy systems model developed at University College London which is a global bottom-up technology-rich cost optimisation model. The model is based upon the ETSAIP-TIAM model (Loulin and Labriet, 2007) but with several significant additions in terms of a climate module, a separate UK region and significant regional resource data improvements. The model has recently been applied to explore distributional effects of unused fossil fuels in meeting a 2°C target (McGlaude and Ekins, 2015). Here, we expand upon the model by considering the general equilibrium effects and potential regional GDP loss of limiting climate change to the agreed 2°C threshold.

We have added a simplified general equilibrium macroeconomic growth module developed by Kyproes and Lehtila (2013). Macro Stand-Alone (MSA) is a single agent: single sector, multi-regional, general equilibrium optimal growth model which maximises discounted utility of a single consumer-producer agent. GDP is comprised of consumption, investment and energy system costs. Total
economic production is determined by a combination of energy, capital and labour where energy substitutes with a capital-labour composite via an elasticity of substitution parameter. Quadratic cost functions and demand decoupling factors are estimated from the calibration routine are fed from TIAM-UCL to MSA. MSA is then solved and the new energy demands are given back into TIAM-UCL which is then solved again. The iteration continues until the model converges, defined by the change in energy demand and variation between interactions slowing to within a specified tolerance.

Initial results for the TIAM-UCL-MSA model show that the macroeconomic effects across the 16 regions of meeting the 2°C target differ significantly. The range of GDP loss in 2050 compared against a 'no emissions target' baseline scenario for European countries and the United States is between 1% and 2%. This suggests that the losses that would be incurred while achieving the ambitious emissions reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C are relatively modest in these regions. Losses are, however, much higher in the Middle East and former Soviet Union regions, reaching up to 5.5% lower compared with growth in the baseline scenario. This results from the reduction in markets and prices for these regions' fossil fuel exports that can be expected under such a 'no emissions target' scenario.

If action is delayed beyond 2030 then it is highly unlikely that reaching a 2°C world is feasible at all, however further set of scenarios which delay action to 2025 and 2030, and which make the emissions reduction more difficult to achieve, will be examined in this work. By examining the additional losses in GDP that will result from delayed action on mitigating climate change, these results will have profound consequences for the climate negotiations to be in 2015.

## P-3322-11

### Forecast on China's Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Driven by Micro Innovation: an Agent-based Simulation

J. Wu (1); Z. Wang (1); Q. Zhu (2)

(1) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; (2) China university of petroleum, Beijing, China

To forecast the energy consumption and carbon emissions in China, this paper established an input-output model with 17 sectors on the macroeconomy level, and an agent-based model on the microeconomy level simulating firms' innovations in each sector. Results show that due to the uncertainty of innovation, the peak years of energy and emission are also uncertain. The energy peak year will subject to a normal distribution from 2025 to 2036; while the distribution of emission peak year is also identified as a normal distribution from 2024 to 2033. The year with the maximum probability for energy peak will be 2031 with the probability of 23.57%; and 2029 will be the year with the maximum probability 33.51% for emission peak. Taking the average of 50 simulations, it is indicated that the energy peak will be 5146Mtce in 2029 with a decline by 2050 to 4086Mtce, and the emission peak will be 2.7GtC in 2029 with a decline by 2050 to 2.05GtC.

## P-3322-12

### The Simulation of China Regional Climate Trends

Q. Yue (1); J. Zhang (1); C. Yue (1); F. Xu (1)

(1) East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

In order to simulate the climate change in China, we adopt the regional climate model RegCM4, which is jointly researched and developed by NCAR/PSU (The National Center for Atmospheric Research/ the University of Pennsylvania). The model is widely used in the research of large range regional climate. Considering the CO2 emission strategy in the future process of climate

change, A1B scenario simulation data produced by global circulation model EHSOM is chosen and used as the driver of regional climate model initial field and the lateral boundary conditions. Its change rate of annual average temperature is closed to observed value and the performance of the seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation is reasonable. Simulation period begins on 15 October 2040 and ends to 31 December 2060 and the period before 31 December 2040 is seen as simulation initialization phase. Sea surface temperature boundary field comes from SST. A1B data on RegCM4 website, interpolated on the grid simulation area.

The contemporary climate simulation results in 1981-2000 are subtracted from the A1B scenario simulation prediction results in 2041-2060 respectively. In this way, we reduce the uncertainty in climate predictions brought by the simulation error, and improve the reliability of prediction. Then we get the possible future climate change trend of China in the middle 21st century, under the A1B scenario. As results show, the multiyear average temperature increases more in the north region than it in the south, more in the east then it in the west. The increment ranges from 1.5°C in the southeast to 2.4°C in the northwest, even reaches to 3°C in some area. Different from mean temperature, the variation trend of multiyear averaged annual precipitation dose not shows an increasing trend in all regions. The annual precipitation may have a decrease trend in the south of the Yangtze River, including the yangtze-huaihe region, which generally reduces about 100 mm. The average annual precipitation decrease rate is sharper in the southeast china and it decreases over 200 mm in some area. The precipitation may be lower in Guizhou and east Yunnan, as well as the east and north region of Taiwan. However, a increasing of annual average precipitation can be seen in the north region of China, especially in east Inner Mongolia and local area of Heilongjiang. In addition, there is a sharp increase in south Tibetan Plateau, which may exceed 200mm.

A lot of researches on climate change simulation are reported, and the simulation of RegCM4 under A1B scenario is accepted by most scholars now. While some details of this simulation results differ from others results, the error is acceptable.

## P-3322-13

### Modeling and Computation of Transboundary Industrial Pollution with Emission Permits Trading with Stochastic Differential Game

S. Zhang (1)

(1) Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin, China

The topic on how to deal with the transboundary industrial pollution is becoming more and more popular, and it requires international actions to control its formation and effects. In this paper, we present a stochastic differential game to model the transboundary industrial pollution problems with emission permits trading. More generally, the process of emission permits price is assumed to be stochastic and to follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). We make use of stochastic optimal control theory to derive the system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations satisfied by the value functions for the cooperative and noncooperative games, respectively, and then propose a so-called fitted finite volume method to solve it. The efficiency and usefulness of this method are illustrated by the numerical experiments. The two regions' cooperative and noncooperative optimal emission paths, which maximize the regions' discounted stream of net revenue, together with the value functions, are obtained. Additionally, we can also obtain the threshold conditions for the two regions to decide whether they cooperate or not in different cases. The effects of parameters on the results have been also examined. All the results demonstrate that the stochastic emission permits prices can motivate the players to make more flexible strategic decisions in the games.
Human Dignity & the Future of International Environmental Governance in the light of ICJ Jurisprudence: A Normative Analysis

K. Bansal (1)

(1) International Policy Analysis Network (IPAN), Karnal, Haryana, France

More than being an attempt to suggest a direction for the further policy discourse, this paper presents a normative perspective which espouses and analyses Human Dignity as a School of Law with regards to International Environmental Governance.

The paper begins with an introduction of Human Dignity as the foundation of modern public international law and explains it further in the light of Elementary Consideration of Human doctrine as developed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This part explains the irreversible connection between the contemporary principles of international environmental governance and human dignity by relying upon various legal authorities and opinions.

The second part of the paper brings out the deficits of international environment law. It is argued that in the light of the conceptual trinity of sources of international law as enshrined in Article 38 (1)(c) of the ICJ Statute, one may observe that the deficit of international environment law is trilateral: treaty law, customary rules and the general principles of international law.

In the third part, this paper comprehensively analyses international environmental jurisprudence as developed by the International Court of Justice in order to address the deficits in the law as pointed out in the second part of the paper. It is argued that the ICJ's environmental jurisprudence reflects that progress in the international environment law can well be secured by the application of general principles of international law. Here, relying upon the ICJ jurisprudence, four such core principles are also identified which provide the basis for an environment specific legal application.

The objective of this paper is two-fold: firstly, to forward the discourse on the future of global governance norms in the light of human dignity as the core principle, especially with regards to environmental governance; secondly, to propose the fundamental principles through a broader analysis which should form the cornerstones of the broader discussion taking place during the conference.

Justice and equity in REDD+

A. Wardell (1)

(1) CIFOR, Montpellier, France

The UNFCCC adopted Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, enhancement of carbon stocks, conservation, and sustainable management of forests in developing countries (REDD+) as a climate mitigation mechanism given the scale of CO2 emissions resulting from the conversion and degradation of tropical forests (ca. 12-15% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)), and the early belief that avoiding deforestation would be a 'quick, cheap and easy' mitigation option to 'original' conceived as a system of Payment for Environmental Services which aimed to link sellers and buyers via voluntary, conditional agreements over a well-defined environmental service - or a land use presumed to produce that service. The majority of funding, it was anticipated, would come from carbon markets.

Despite the significant technical, methodological and policy challenges that still need to be met, it is likely that REDD+ will be a component of a new climate change agreement given the Copenhagen Accord, the outcomes of

the work on REDD+ safeguards of the AWG-LCA in Cancun, the Warsaw REDD+ Framework, the ADP's continuing efforts to address Non-Carbon Benefits, non-market based approaches and joint mitigation and adaptation, and the emergence of a plethora of project-based and jurisdictional REDD+ standards. This despite the effective collapse of (forest) carbon markets, and an overall negative performance at a global scale (GHG emissions in 2012 were at 58% higher levels than they were in 1990 cf. Article 2 of the Convention). REDD+ activities are now financed predominantly as part of Official Development Assistance programmes. The added incentives promised by REDD+ are likely to heighten the existing struggles for access to, and control over land and forest resources. As new values are assigned to forests, contestation between statutory and customary systems of individual and communal property regimes are likely to be exacerbated.

This paper adopts a 'rights, responsibilities, revenues and relationships' framework to highlight the (relatively) limited attention accorded, to date, to develop appropriate legal frameworks for REDD+ often in contexts distinguished by legal pluralism and multiple framings and dimensions (procedural, distributive and contextual) of 'justice' and 'equity' at different scales of governance. It raises questions (again) about the limits of 'blueprint development' that often privileges external actors (and their knowledge systems) over local communities. Complex legal issues such as those related to land tenure, benefit sharing, constitutional compliance, conflict resolution and liabilities have not been adequately addressed to provide enabling legal frameworks for REDD+ implementation. The paper draws on collaborative research conducted by CIFOR and IDLO in Tanzania, Mozambique and Zambia.

Law and Governance Instruments for Sustainable Landscapes in the Low-Carbon Economy

MC. Cordonier Segger (1); A. Wardell (2); G. Markus (3)

(1) CISDL - Centre for International Sustainable Development Law (CISDL), c/o LCIL, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom (2) CIFOR, Research capacity and partnership development, Montpellier, France; (3) LCIL, Faculty of Law, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Sustainable development of landscapes requires multi-sectoral and multi-level interventions, in order to deliver on the potential opportunities of the low-carbon green economy. What international law and governance instruments can assist land-use decision-makers, particularly in forest, agriculture, extractives and other sectors, to promote more sustainable trade and investments? New governance research and legal analysis is focusing on the innovative international economic instruments that global treaty processes, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, offer to provide incentives towards more sustainable landscapes. At the same time, while the Doha Development Agenda remains stalled in the WTO, emerging regional trade and investment treaty measures are seeking to encourage sustainable development of renewable energy, forests and other resources. These international regimes, and the financial flows that they govern, might serve to frustrate more sustainable development, requiring robust application of social and environmental safeguards. Or, if implemented in an effective and integrated manner, they may hold the potential to foster more sustainable development on the ground and across transnational value chains, providing levers for countries to ensure better governance of scarce natural resources in a way that supports global efforts to respond to climate change mitigation, resilience and financing challenges. Based on recent books and multi-country climate law and governance studies, this paper explores the key international, national and local policy and regulatory innovations, world-wide, and considers how can recent emerging treaty-based regimes and instruments contribute to sustainable landscapes governance.
# Migration, environment and climate change: legal frameworks and challenges

D. Mokhnacheva (1), A. Sironi (1)

(1) International Organization for Migration, DMM/MECC, Paris, France

The issue of a legal framework to address environmental migration is a widely debated topic. There is no internationally accepted legal definition or specific status for people on the move due to environmental factors, and no legal instrument dedicated specifically to this issue. As a result, ensuring the protection of affected individuals seems challenging in the absence of one instrument that identifies the applicable rights and corresponding States obligations tailored to the specificity of environmental migration. This has led to strong calls for international efforts to create a specific legal status for environmental migrants.

This presentation will provide an overview of the particular challenges environmental migrants may face in terms of human rights and justice; existing legal instruments, their applicability in the context of environmental migration, as well as their limitations; and discuss the prospects and challenges for creating a protection framework for those displaced or migrating in the context of climate change. As the leading migration agency, IOM will share its practical experience and emphasize the importance of a rights-based approach to the management of environmental migration.

# Hybrid Legal Approaches towards Climate Change: Concepts, Mechanisms and Implementation

C. Corendea (1)

(1) United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Environment, Migration, Social Vulnerability and Adaptation (EMSVA), Bonn, NRW, Germany

In the light of better understanding global risks, this paper will explore environmental risks from a climate change legal-related perspective, in particular human rights and migration, focusing on the core of the problem and not essentially on the form, drawing on and using regional level experiences, such as Pacific Islands. The paper will address climate change triggers, such as sea-level rise impact on national and regional law upscaling to international law, for considering a potential legal approach, not just in terms of mitigation, but also in terms of adaptation, risk reduction, transfer of technologies, climate finance and capacity building.

Hybrid approach is based on the (International) Hybrid Law, a legal research tool which concurrently, indivisibly and interrelated analyse a climate change case study from three perspectives: environmental law, human rights and refugee (migration) law. Hence, the research is simplified, using a single lens as a replacement for a three way analyse.

It was noted that having the main case in breaching international environmental law, e.g. violation of the principles of international environmental law, the main legal effects are mostly to be found in the human rights law, due to its unavoidable first impact upon the targeted society. Secondary, as a subsidiary effect, there is refugee (migration) law, because of the same strong impact, regardless of the type of response: immediate, intermediate or long-term.

There are two methodologies the research will make use of in regards to address the issues mentioned above:

* Rights-based approach which will emphasise the bottom-up standpoint as imperative in the post-2015 climate agreement (human oriented analyses, loss and damage, etc.)

And

* The progressive interpretation of law methodology which will underline the need of hybrid approaches in addressing climate change from a legal perspective in

particular in relation to human rights (direct effect) and migration (as subsidiary effect).

The paper applies international hybrid law methodology in its innovative endeavor to address the challenging questions of the existing legal gaps in international law, environmental (legal) risks and human security in an unprecedented global circumstance, when States, for the first time in the history of the humankind, are projected to disappear from the world map without war.

The expected outcomes of the paper are as follows:

* How rights and hybrid approaches apply to climate risks and lead to migration, as subsidiary effect at local, national and international level;

* How to use hybrid legal tools in climate change and migration related cases;

To address the questions of legitimacy and sovereignty under international law, of a State without a territory lost due to climate change triggers and provide preemptive legal solutions to potential risks associated with this unparalleled state of affairs.

# Exporting Harm

J. Moss (1)

(1) Practical Justice Institute, Social Sciences, Sydney, Australia

In this paper I will discuss an aspect of the problem of how to divide the World's remaining 'carbon budget' – the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. I will argue that there is a prima facie case for allocating responsibility for the harms caused by exported emissions such as those produced by coal, as well as those that are produced within a country's borders. This is not a complete determination of the carbon budget problem by any means, but a step towards its development.

My paper sets out some of the factors that determine a country's carbon budget and argues that the current methods for allocating emissions and responsibilities for their harms are inadequate and more complex than they appear.

The paper will consider several dimensions of the harm caused by unrestricted fossil fuel exports. First, what kind of harm is caused by such exports? Second, whether analogies exist between other harmful exports – medical waste, tobacco, unsafe jobs, uranium – and fossil fuels to examine how the kind of harm caused by global warming is different from standard cases of harm where only two parties are involved. Third, whether unrestricted export of fossil fuel exports satisfy a 'fair shares' criterion. Finally, what allocating responsibility for harms means in practice.

## 3323-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

# Environment Tribunals and Justice: The Indian Experience

R. Brara (1)

(1) University of Delhi, India, Department of Sociology, Delhi, India

I inquire into practices and experiences with adjudication that emerge from a study of the cases filed before the newly formed National Green Tribunal in India and interviews with selected lawyers and appellants that focus on governance and justice. My endeavour is to show how the affected public's vulnerability to environmental and climate change intersects with the discourse and practice of governance, ethics and justice as well as resilience, mitigation and adaption.

Taking a bird's eye-view, collective experiences of vulnerability have given rise to the organization of multiple environmental publics in India. Analyzing the cases filed before the National Green Tribunal by these publics enables me to demonstrate that by litigating the environmental public interest, the experience of vulnerabilities is often
transformed into events marked by resilience though not necessarily by success.

From a local perspective, issues of climate change and the environment cannot be easily disentangled since climate change hits the environment as base. It is a local cumul- environmental violation that comes to threaten the life of an individual or household and is articulated as worthy of further action by gathering a public and acquiring a strategic local scale. The next step begins with the search for an environmental lawyer (and funds) for adjudication before the Tribunal. This step is the event's translation into the language of law and the state, which produces and views the violation from an altered rupture and perspective. The transformation is experienced as a rupture that marks the distance from a local public to a public mediated by the environmental laws of the state.

New interactions then occur across scales such that the environmental/climate cause lawyer assumes a critical role - with one face turned to the local, as it were, and the other to the law as its representative interpreter. The environmental lawyer addresses the mismatches between the scale of law and the local apprehension of the problem and scale as he sifts the facts and frames them for presentation in a legal case. What comes into being at the local level, then, is a heightened awareness, friction and even a revelation, of the limits of legal processes (spatially, temporally and including their possibilities for justice). Simultaneously, therefore parallel channels of communication are activated and engaged to reach out to politicians and government officials at multiple sites in the quest for justice.

The Legal Bench of the Tribunal embodies the statutory perspective even more completely than the lawyer. Here the facts of the case are readily rendered as background and the legal order of argumentation and knowledge, into which the case must fit, takes precedence. From this perspective, the judge or Bench often reads the environmental violation as an issue that stems from the inadequacy of the executive which has failed to do its jobs and let the problem fester. As the legal judgment, in its corrective mode, travels back to the local, it is inevitably filtered through the visions of the executive, such that the local enforcement of a judgment on the ground is rendered uncertain and risky. The implementation of a sound legal judgment is contingent on the local bureaucracy and the local public attempts to adapt to this maladapted reality.

The global of environmental law and governance also emerges as a producer of new scales and perspectives from a different situated context. The transnational environmental climate sphere's scales and processes, too, journey downwards to nation-states where these are both ratified and refracted. The judge who embodies the statutory order of the nation state also appears as the arbiter of national difference from promulgated global principles of environmental-cum-climate regulation. International treaties are thus unable to trump national sovereignty in the present.

What you have, then, is an insubordination of scales, compelling us to move up, down and sideways to understand and address the legitiacies/ilegitimations of governance and justice and the frictions of local and national difference in the context of environmental climate

change.

P-3323-02

Governance of Local Disaster Management Committees in line with SOD in Bangla-desh

SA. Siddiquee (1)

(1) WAVE Foundation, Monitoring and Evaluation, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Due to its geographical location Bangladesh has always been prone to natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, tidal surges, tornadoes, river-bank erosion and many more. Bangladesh has shown significant improvement in disaster management which is proven by its possession of Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD), Disaster Management Act, National Disaster Management Plan, Disaster Management Policy, Disaster Management Committees at the District, Upazila and Union levels. However, despite the government's commitment and effort given by many actors the room for improvement prevails in the disaster management system. A total of 51 DMCS in five districts that were vulnerable to flood, river- bank erosion, drought and cyclone were taken as sample to analyse the current situation of these committees. This study was conducted using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Both options included and closed ended questions were asked. Questionnaire and KII tools were used to collect information from respondents in both the government organizations and NGOs. The study has observed poor coordination between GO and NGOs at the sub-national and local level. Surprisingly, the study has found that only 38.9% DMC members are informed about Disaster Management Act and 36.76% are aware about their roles and responsibilities in the Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD). Although the selected districts are extremely prone to disasters, surprisingly it has been observed that 70% of DDMCs and 30% of UZDMCs are holding regular meetings and only 16.22% of UDMCs are holding regular meetings as per the SOD. The scenario mentioned above clearly states that the DMCS are not active as they should have been according to the SOD. Only 43.80% of DMCS have Risk Reduction Action Plan (RRAP) but perform very few activities according to the RRAP. It was found that only 23.3% of DMCS have developed volunteer groups and only 26% of DMCS have arranged community awareness building programmes. The study has also found that only 34% of Union Parishads have incorporated DRR into their Annual Development Plan. It is alarming that even though Bangladesh is one of the prime victims of climate change, encountering severe and frequent disasters like Sidr, Ala and Mahasen, 66% of the simple Union Parishads have not been integrated into their ADPs. Based on the gaps recognized in the study, it can be concluded that the functionality of the DMCS needs to be improved through capacity building, training, and materials such as a guidebook to simplify the SOD etc. in order to levitate the current Disaster Management System. Empowering the DMC members by increasing their level of understanding in Information Technology and by linking them to the national level will ultimately lead to more and improved governance system of Disaster Management Committees.

3324 - Paradigms for Building Resilience from Cross-scale Integrated Risk Governance Perspectives

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

O-3324-01

Risk Culture: Implications for Risk Gover- nance

A. Renn (1) ; E. Boyd (2)

(1) University of Stuttgart, The economic and social sciences, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) University of Reading / Stockholm Resilience Centre, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Reading, United Kingdom

Deciding about the location of hazardous facilities, setting standards for chemicals, making decisions about clean-

ups of contaminated land, regulating food and drugs, as well as designing and enforcing safety limits all have one element in common: these activities are collective endeavours to understand, assess and handle risks to human health and the environment. These attempts are based on two requirements. On the one hand, risk managers need sufficient knowledge about the potential impacts of the risk sources under investigation and the likely consequences of the different decision options to control these risks. On the other hand, they need criteria to judge the desirability or undesirability of these consequences for the people affected and the public at large. This second part is an integral aspect of risk culture, understood as the systems of norms, values and visions that an organization shares among its members Within the portfolio of organizational culture, criteria on desirability are reflections of social values such as good health, equity,
or efficient use of scarce resources. Both components – knowledge and values – are necessary for any decision-making process independent of the issue and the problem context.

Anticipating consequences of human actions or events (knowledge) and evaluating the desirability and moral quality of these consequences (values) pose particular problems if we are to understand the risks and uncertainly and the values contrasted and controversial. Dealing with complex, uncertain and ambiguous outcomes often leads to the emergence of social conflict. This is particularly the case for emerging technologies where the risks are not yet known. Although everyone may agree on the overall goal of safety and environmental quality, precisely what that goal entails (how safe is safe enough?) and precisely how that goal will be obtained may evoke substantial disagreement. Major issues in this context are: what are the most suitable criteria for judging risks? How can an organizational culture cope with uncertain outcomes and how can it develop an effective monitoring system. How should an organization manage risks that benefit one party at the expense of potential harm to another?

These crucial questions of how to deal with complex, uncertain and controversial risks demand procedures and decision-making that go beyond the conventional risk management routines. Numerous strategies to cope with this challenge have evolved over time. They include technocratic decision-making through the explicit involvement of technical experts, institutional arrangements for foresight and monitoring, direct stakeholder involvement, and external reviews. The main argument of the paper is that public and private institutions that assess and manage risks are in urgent need of devising their institutional routines and of designing procedures that enable them to integrate professional assessments (systematic knowledge), adequate institutional process (organizational culture), responsible handling of public resources (efficiency) and stakeholder knowledge and perceptions (reflection on public values and preferences). These various inputs require the inclusion of multiple procedures and the involvement of several actors in the risk assessment and risk management process. The structures that evolve from the cooperation of various actors in all phases of the risk handling process are subsumed under the term risk governance. Governing choices in modern societies is seen as interplay between governmental institutions, economic forces and civil society actors, such as non-governmental organizations (NGOs). 'Risk governance' involves the 'translation' of the substance and core principles of governance to the context of risk and related decision-making. It includes, but extends beyond, the three conventional recognized elements of risk analysis (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication). It requires consideration of the legal, institutional, social and economic contexts in which a risk is evaluated, and involvement of the actors and stakeholders who represent them. Risk governance looks at the complex web rules, conventions, processes, and mechanisms concerned with how relevant risk information is collected, analysed and communicated, and how management decisions are taken. Such an approach links risk governance with risk culture.

## O-3324-02

# Disasters and Green Growth: An Exercise in Complexity

### C. Jaeger (1)

(1) Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany

It is by now common knowledge that air pollution is a huge disaster in Beijing as in other megacities of the present. It is less known that a century ago air pollution was at least as disastrous in Chicago and other large cities of those times. While efforts to reduce those historical pollution disasters started early in the 19th century, they became really successful only when economic growth had made far-reaching pollution control affordable. This option of 'pollute first, clean-up later' is not open to countries like contemporary China. They need to switch to a path of green growth. This goal cannot be reached by simple top-down strategies. Rather, an approach fostering synergies between decision-making strategies by a myriad of actors is needed. Such an approach can be developed, but it requires a new view of the complex relations between economic growth and disaster management.

## O-3324-03

# World Regionalization of Climate Change [1961-2010]

### Q. Ye (1); P. Shi (2)

(1) Integrated Risk Governance Project, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; (2) Beijing Normal University, State key lab for earth surface processes and resource ecology, Beijing, China

Existing climate regionalization aims to characterize the regional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluctuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes world regionalization of climate change (1961-2010) with state (province) administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with world's terrain feature. Level-1 regionalization divides world's climate change (1961-2010) into thirteen tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation; level-2 regionalization refers to twenty-nine fluctuation regions based on level-1 regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation.

## O-3324-04

# Everyday disasters, adaptation governance & resilience frameworks

### A. Ghosh (1); E. Boyd (2)

(1) University of Heidelberg, South Asia institute, Heidelberg, Germany; (2) University of Reading / Stockholm Resilience Centre, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Reading, United Kingdom

This paper introduces the concept and consequences of 'everyday disasters' – when regular oceanic processes such as tidal bores and high tides become more intense and catastrophic, destroying lives of those who live in low-lying coastal areas with striking regularity under the influence of climate change, sea level rise, coastline erosion and land subsidence. In the Indian Sundarbans, world's largest mangrove ecosystem situated at the mouth Bay of Bengal and a part of world's largest delta, these 'daily' weather hazards are egregiously affecting the socio-ecological system, leading to human crises of unprecedented proportions. Not classified and defined as 'disasters' and thus unattended by local, national and international disaster management authorities, these events engender a socioeconomic challenge to structured adaptive governance which is yet to be studied formally or understood.

Majority of the indicators of global warming are already higher than global averages in Sundarbans. Eventual outcomes in terms of actual environmental shifts as a product of complex interactions between anthropogenic and climate changes in this socio-ecological system are making the challenge of climate change adaptation further complex, along with increased intensity and frequency of cyclones, typhoons, flash floods, which have, however, received considerable attention from disaster risk reduction scholars.

On July 12, 13 and 14, 2014, a regular oceanic phenomenon of a tidal bore devastated island villages across Indian Sundarbans, destroyed human settlements, infrastructure, dwellings and displaced about 100,000 people, forcing them into near starvation for over three months. It also destroyed prospects of agriculture and aquaculture, indefinite future. Using a snowball sampling, extensive qualitative interviews, photographic and audio-visual evidence were collected from five of the affected villages between July and September 2014. The findings reveal narrow and limited framing of disasters and a disparate adaptation discourse that have failed to internalise these events. Through grounded narratives and evidences, this paper elaborate how threats from environment (climate change) domain were extending to social ones, exacerbating the existing crisis in the socio-ecological systems; underscoring specific needs for governance processes and systems to target newly
emerging socio-environmental risks. The analysis also underscores epistemological weaknesses of existing resilience frameworks that are unable to address changing nature of vulnerabilities to livelihoods and human security. Also, imprint of the event on the adjoining areas, especially towns and cities in the region because of large human migration, argues for reconfiguring development paradigms in wake of altering environmental realities.

# 3325a - Overcoming barriers to transitions: knowledge to action and the importance of communication

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3325a-01

#### Barriers to action and the role of communication

**J. Palutikof (1)**

(1) Griffith University, Australia

Abstract not communicated

### K-3325a-02

#### Experiences of co-production of evidence to support transitions

**H. Winkler (1)**

(1) University of Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract not communicated

### K-3325a-03

#### Impact, intention and implementation - a hard talk toward COP-21

**N. Pahuja (1)**

(1) The Energy and Resources Institute, India

Abstract not communicated

### O-3325a-01

#### For richer or for poorer? Examining science-governance relations from a global perspective

**L. Van Kerkhoff (1) ; H. Berry (2)**

(1) The Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra, ACT, Australia; (2) The Australian National University, Climate Change Institute, Canberra, ACT, Australia

The application of research-based knowledge to national-scale action on important public issues such as climate change is necessarily shaped by each nation's socio-political stance toward the value and role of science in governance and decision-making (Jasanoff, 2010). Similarly, it is shaped by their capacities to enact those values by governing effectively for the public good. Yet although there has been considerable study and scholarship regarding the challenges of linking knowledge to action for science and research and associated institutional innovations, there has been relatively little that has sought to investigate the national-scale relationships between research and the public functions of governance. Examining these relationships helps us to understand the socio-political substrate from which other knowledge to action innovations must grow. There is extensive analysis showing that greater investment in R&D is related to higher economic growth, but none that has specifically sought to describe whether governance and R&D are related independent of national income via better public management, and how this might vary globally. To contribute to this understanding we sought to answer the questions of: whether there are quantitatively discernible relationships between science and governance at the macro (global) scale; how these relations might differ across countries; and how this diversity can be understood. This latter question is particularly important

Thus, this work addresses two of the biggest gaps in resilience geography about how smaller, daily disasters were aggravating environment shifts and how they were jeopardising livelihoods, threatening human security and posing an unforeseen challenge to development in the South.

from the perspective of governing global environmental processes such as climate change.

To address these questions we investigated two hypotheses: first, that governance performance and research and development (R&D) are related independent of national income levels. Second, that these relations differ across high-income countries and lower-income countries, both quantitatively and qualitatively. We drew on publicly available country-level statistical data from the World Bank and UNESCO to investigate how national governance capacities are related to research and development investment (RDI). Using a sample of 209 countries we show that, while national income is an important factor, governance performance is independently related to RDI. Importantly, different domains of governance are relevant for high-income and lower-income countries. In terms of governance, in high-income countries, 'governance effectiveness' is the sole predictor of RDI while, in lower-income countries, it is predicted by greater 'rule of law' but less 'control of corruption'. These results show that the relationships between governance and R&D in lower-income countries are complex and substantially different from high-income countries. More detailed analysis is warranted if we are to understand how to address the diversity of science-governance relations and the challenges andopportunities they pose for linking knowledge with action on global issues.

Jasanoff, S. (2010). A New Climate for Society. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), 233-253.

### O-3325a-02

#### Addressing migration in the context of global environmental change: an institutional perspective

**M. Traore Chazalnoel (1)**

(1) International Organization for Migration, DMM/MECC, Geneva, France

As the leading migration agency, the International Organization for Migration has been working on migration, environment and climate change for more than twenty years, promoting research, awareness and knowledge of the subject, contributing to mainstreaming migration and environment into policies, promoting migration as an adaptation strategy in the context of climate change, building the capacity of key stakeholders, and attracting migrants in need, by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches to the management of environmental migration.

Building on the Organization's global research, operational, and policy experience, this session will reflect on the pathway from knowledge to action in the area of climate-related migration governance. The presentation will explore the opportunities migration offers in the context of climate change, and discuss the challenges around addressing environmental and climate-related migration, including the difficulty of measuring and framing environmental migration and producing evidence to inform decision makers; the challenge of bridging the gap between empirical knowledge and political action, and of putting policies into practice; the difficulties behind attracting funding to enable action; legal challenges; operational and coordination challenges.

The session will also present some recommendations and possible avenues for improved action and governance of environmental migration, as a contribution to the preparatory work ahead of the COP21.
O-3325a-03

# The smallholder farmers' adoption challenges on conservation agriculture practices in the southern highlands of Tanzania

## B. Gwambene (1)

(1) Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

Conservation Agriculture (CA) used as a mitigation and adaptation options to address impacts of climate variability and an alternative practice for increasing food production while maintaining the soil resource base. It is promoted to address the problems of soil degradation resulting from the impacts of climate change and agricultural practices that deplete the organic matter and nutrient content of the soil. However, adoption of CA among smallholder farmers has been limited and features many challenges in the southern highlands of Tanzania. This paper assesses the challenges of adopting conservation agriculture practices in smallholder and subsistence farming in this region. It used the survey methods that include participatory rural appraisal (PRA), questionnaire survey, key informant interview and field observation to collect both qualitative and quantitative information. The qualitative methods established the knowledge and experience with livelihood activities, adoption of CA, spatial and temporal changes in agricultural production and response strategies while the quantitative method provided the percentages and

statistical information. The qualitative data were processed and analyzed by using trend and content analysis while quantitative data were analyzed by using Microsoft Excel and SPSS software. The results indicate that about 95% of smallholder farmers tend to only adopt certain components, such as mulching, crop rotation and water management techniques. Factors such as the knowledge-intensive nature of implementing CA practices, long term crop yield benefits from CA, strong trade-offs posed adoption challenges. Poor functioning and access to the recommended inputs, markets and credit facilities and shortage of extension services increased adoption challenges at a local level. It was further revealed that climate variability, land exhaustion/ shortage, unreliable markets, and lack of product knowledge were reported to increase challenge in crop production. An enabling environment for farmers through appropriate policy, strategies and implementation plans at all levels provide an opportunity to increase adoption of CA and improve their livelihoods and productivity. This will need a policy and strategies that focus more on technical approaches to increase adoption rates with the consideration of social aspects such as perceptions that are equally important in conservation agriculture. Understanding what motivates farmers to try or reject specific CA practices is imperative in adoption of technology. In practice, farmers are able, or willing, to implement or partly adopt based on their perception of what is feasible in their particular circumstances. Issues such as the nature of the technology, affordability, time and resource invested, accessibility to appropriate tools and equipment, and competition for crop residue have influenced rate and extent of adoption among smallholder farmers.

# 3325b - Creating the climate change groundswell by communicating business, science and regional activity

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3325b-01

#### Academic and Business Solutions for People and the Planet

##### McNeely (1)

(1) Harvard School of Public Health, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Boston, MA, United States of America

Abstract not communicated

### K-3325b-02

#### Galvanizing climate action at all levels

##### H. Thomas (1), B. Guy (2), T. Edwards (3)

(1) Oxford University, Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford, France, (2) Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, USA, (3) The Stanley Foundation, Muscatine, United States of America

Abstract not communicated

### K-3325b-03

#### Decision-Making under Climate Change: the challenge of linking science, policy and management

##### D. Ryan (1), D. Gorfinkeil (2)

(1) Regional Centre for Climate Change and Decision Making, Buenos Aires, Argentina, (2) UNESCO Climate Change Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean, Unesco, Montevideo, Uruguay

Abstract not communicated

### O-3325b-01

#### Graduated response from the stakeholders to the climate change impacts on water using a vulnerability index combining the uncertainties

##### T. Pelte (1)

(1) Rhone Mediterranean Corsica water agency, Iyon, France

The Rhone Mediterranean Corsica water agency and the Regional Direction in charge of the environment - the DREAL - have been engaged since 2012 in a common project for climate change adaptation.

The work has developed a method to assure a solid "interface" between water policy makers and the scientific and technical fields conducting research on the impacts of climate change. Key information are provided to planners, water managers and policy makers, on the scientific knowledge that will have an impact on short- and long-term decision making for regional adaptation.

The work is organized in three interacting processes :

1. the production and gathering of scientific knowledge in order to identify climate change - related phenomena that will impact water management strategies.

2. the building of maps of the Rhone-Mediterranean basin showing regional vulnerabilities to climate change from five points of view : water resources, soil water balance, biodiversity, trophic level of rivers and snow. Each map presents a vulnerability index built for a large scale approach in order to deliver the key information to stakeholders.

3. a short-list of adaptation measures is presented face to each vulnerability map. The measures are graduated according to the level of uncertainties of the vulnerability index.

The exercise combines the exposition level to climate change with the sensitivity of the basin. The exposition level is delivered by climate projection results from 7 regionalization methods and 2 hydrological models. The sensitive index is built with technical characteristics of the basin linked to the issue.
This exercise is an original process which combines the bottom-up and top-down approaches that are ordinarily used to build climate change adaptation strategies. The vulnerability index is inspired by the top-down approach and the graduated response by issue is the result of a bottom-up approach connected to the stakeholders. This will allow the project to result in stronger, more efficient messages.

This work has been lead under the authority of the Basin Committee, a governance structure that includes all stakeholder groups involved in water policies (State and local governments, urban, industrial and agricultural water users ...).

## O-3325b-02

# Sharing local and scientific knowledge for climate change modeling. A case study from an Andalusian olive-growing region (Spain)

M. Cohen (1); J. Ronchail (2); M. Alonso-Roldán (3); S. Angles (4); E. Arabe-Jimenez (5); D. Labat (6); H. Garcin (7); C. Morcel (7); B. Sultan (8)

(1) Université Paris Sorbonne, UMR ENEC, Paris, France;
(2) LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (3) Associación Pasos, Participación y Sostenibilidad., Ortega, Spain; (4) Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Umr ladyss, Paris, France; (5) Universidad de Jaén, Facultad de geografia, Jaén, Spain; (6) Université de Toulouse, Geosciences environnementale toulouse, Toulouse, France; (7) Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Ufr ghss, Paris, France; (8) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France

Under a research program focused on the adaptability of olive growing systems to climate change in the Sierra Māgina region of Andalusia and under the demand of a local action group, we combined an interdisciplinary approach, collaboration among climatologists, geographers and sociologists, and the participation of local farmers and stakeholders, all contributing their own knowledge. Sierra Māgina is a highly specialized Mediterranean agricultural region: olive groves represent 85% of cultivated land (in 2006), half of them being irrigated. Our collaboration with stakeholders and farmers developed to the extent that we incorporated the "local knowledge system" in our scientific and modeling process. This incorporation had two objectives: on one hand, we expected that it would promote the buy-in of our projections by local stakeholders and farmers; on the other hand, we expected that local knowledge should help us understand the relationships between olive-growing, climate variability and climate change. This process is suitable for research incorporating complex issues and significant level of uncertainty, which is the case of olive growing adaptability to climate change.

Firstly, we analyzed projections of climate in Sierra Māgina, focusing on the parameters that 9 stakeholders considered as limiting olive growth. We assessed the evolution of rainfall and maximum temperature during the 21st century at the local scale using 17 regional climate models (RCMs) simulations. 15 to 30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with an 8% annual average reduction by 2030-2050 (verified for 16 and 14 models out of 17, respectively). The projections of the other parameters were uncertain. Secondly, we observed during interviews with 15 farmers, that they expressed doubt about climate change since they are used to deal with inter-annual climate variability. Consequently, we verified and mapped which parameters of climate and water resources had changed over the last decades and to what extent. Indeed, rainfall decreased by 18% during the period 1955-2009, a more dramatic decrease than the one simulated for the 2030-2050 period (8%). Water resource availability has declined two or three times more than rainfall, in part because of the expansion of irrigation, which ameliorated the effects of droughts and increased profitability. Those farmers interviewed appeared to be less aware than stakeholders about the decline of water resources.

Thirdly, when we presented the results of the climatic study to local stakeholders, they asked us to determine the impacts of climate change specifically on olive production. These show that the cumulative rainfall of the two years preceding the harvest explains 41% of the variability of irrigated olive-tree yields and 46% of rain-fed yields. This result was unexpected for irrigated yields according to the literature, but some farmers have always known about

the dependence of irrigated groves on rainfall. Contrary to local knowledge, biennial (and not seasonal) rainfall is the best yield predictor, due to the biennial fruit bearing of olive-tree. Fourthly, our model, although statistically significant, showed some discrepancies between observed and simulated yield values. We performed other 7 inquiries with olive-growing professionals and farmers to assess the validity of the model with local knowledge. Once verified the extent of the validity of our model, both statistically and using local knowledge, we projected yields for the future: they are expected to decrease by 7% and 3% for 2030-2050 for rain fed and irrigated olive groves. Although this moderate loss should be exacerbated by the expected shortage in water resources, it should allow sufficient time to elaborate a local strategy, particularly for irrigated olive-groves. Unfortunately, most stakeholders think that rainfed trees will better cope with future water shortage than irrigated trees.

The last step of this process consists in sharing our results in a seminar and in an engaging workshop, bringing together scientists, farmers and stakeholders, in order to elaborate jointly climate change adaptation strategies taking into consideration socio-economic challenges. These discussions also aim to build a mitigation strategy, by the recovery of pruning waste (currently burnt), in order to reduce the impact of the situation to a low carbon budget (ongoing program Olizero).

## O-3325b-03

# The "Soil Carbon Network for sustainable agriculture in Africa": an open scientific group for a better consideration of CSA in Africa

TM. Razafimbelo (1); G. Amadji (2); O. Balarabe (3); YN. Badiane (4); E. Hien (5); A. Koné (6); H. Konareh (7); MH. Taisso (8); T. Gallali (9); M. Bernoux (10); A. Bilgo (11); Tazakamanaro (10); E. Blanchard (12); M. Brossard (10) L. Bockel (13)

(1) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des Radiostopés, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (2) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Faculté des sciences agronomiques, Cotonou, Benin; (3) Institut de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement, Libreville, Cameroon; (4) Institut Senégalaux de Recherches Agricoles, Dakar, Senegal; (5) Université de Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (6) Nangui Abogouva University, Ufr-sn / centre for research in ecology, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (7) Institut d'Economie Rurale, Laboratoire sol-eau-plantes -, Mamako, Mali; (8) Université de N'Djamena, Département de géologie, N'Djamena, Chad; (9) Université de Tunis, Tunisie, Tunisia; (10) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR Eco&Sols, Montpellier, France; (11) Centre Régional d'AGHYMET, Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (12) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR Eco&Sols, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (13) FAO, Esa, Rome, Italy

Since the food riots in 2008 and 2009 at the international level, some strategies are in place to tackle the problem of food security. As soils are the main support of agricultural activities, it is necessary to preserve them because of their non-renewable status at the scale of a generation, agricultural activities and forest sensu lato.

On the other hand, African agriculture has to face both climate changes which can be a source of many threats and demographic pressure which goes increasingly. Therefore, to feed people, it will be necessary to adopt agricultural practices which preserve soils and the ecosystem services they provide, such as food production and biomass, regulation and filtering of waters, the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, water conservation and water management. It is recognized as an indicator of fertility and productivity, two essential qualities for the autonomy and the food security of many African countries.

To meet these challenges, the implementation of agriculture that promotes alternative agricultural practices focused on optimal management of organic matter and on the soil, the care proposed and considered as an «agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals» according to the FAO.

Many of these practices are already implemented in Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA) such as agroforestry, zai practices, and conservation agriculture. However, their extent and their efficiency to increase productivity, to be resilient and to mitigate GES need to be documented.

The "Soil Carbon Network for sustainable agriculture in Africa" or CaSA network was created in SSA in order to regroup the African soil scientists working on sustainable agriculture in link with soil organic carbon sequestration at SSA level. This network aimed to:

(1) replace the soil as the central support of production systems;

(2) show that the simple maintenance of soil carbon is essential, especially in arid and semi-arid areas;

(3) quantify the impact of the management practices on carbon sequestration in the soil for the different pedoclimatic African situations;

(4) promote research in connection with civil society and development agencies;

(5) facilitate access of the results of research to policy makers; improve the dissemination to civil society and farmers;

(6) strengthen the capacity of the teams and training expertise.

CaSA network regroup more than 15 African and European research institutions distributed among 10 African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Tunisia, Morocco and Madagascar) and 1 European country (France). An end-product of CaSA will be a book on combined research results of soil organic carbon storage/sequestration in sustainable agriculture at SSA level; it will be presented at the COP21 in Paris.

## 3325 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3325-01

#### Local beliefs and strategies of adaptation to climate change in Korhogo (Côte d'Ivoire)

N. Boko (1)

(1) UNIVERSE FELIX HOUPHOËU-BOIGNY, SOCIOLOGIE, ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast

The preceding decades, the area of Korhogo, Côte d'Ivoire, has experienced climate variability which disturbs populations' agricultural activities. This survey has been conducted from March 2009 to February 2012 in order to identify the perceptible causes of change; they are climatic or environmental to the populations, and their endogenous strategies of adaptation. A qualitative approach based on semi-structured interviews, life stories and focus groups has been used for data collection. The historical and comprehensive method enabled to establish a relationship between populations' perceptions and beliefs and, the indicators of climate variability and environment changes but also, their endogenous strategies of adaptation. As indicators, the populations notice an extension of the dry season at the expenses of the rain season, advanced deterioration of vegetation, draining of sources of water supply (rivers, backwaters and wells) and disappearance of some animals like elephant and hyena and, some floricidal species used by sculptors and traditional healers.

The survey also shows that the causes of the phenomenon are not only related to human activities but are mystical or metaphysical (non-compliance with customary practices, petishes, totems (make love in the bush, commit blood crimes) and prohibitions related to nature; the multiplicity of religions, traditions and values and the upheaval of society) rules non-compliance of the elderly, liberalization of land working). Thus, the coping strategies of the populations based on two fundamental pillars: social capital of actors (contributions of NGOs and technicians, media and social networks) and occult practices related to beliefs. The study noted three types of strategies. The first is the survival strategy that is neither planned nor based on any knowledge of the phenomenon but obey of an instinct and the need of the population survival (« climatic migration and exodus rural, reconversion of populations and the development of certain sectors of activity»).

The second type of strategy is the suggested coping strategies that are based on a scientific understanding

of the causes and consequences of the phenomenon and developed / or proposed by scientists (researchers), technicians and professionals (agriculture officers, NGOs). These strategies are related to the abandonment of long-cycle crops to new and more adapted varieties (integration cassava), the practice of crop against season, the use of improved planting materials, the reconversion of the population to income generating activities and the development of vegetable farming.

The third strategy developed by the population is related to local knowledge, guided by the Traditional Environmental Knowledge (TEK) and beliefs guided by the metaphysical causes attributed to the phenomenon. Here, people are consulting «Fodonons» or rainmakers and also request the help of marabouts or charlatans for sacrifices in the direction of ancestors and gods' protectors, prayers are organized in mosques and churches asking God's mercy and return of the rains. Eventually, the survey shows that populations' adaption strategies are mainly based on local traditional beliefs and knowledge which are at the same time a barrier and an opportunity for the adaptation to climate variability. This article shows in the same time the importance of taking into account local knowledge in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies.

### P-3325-02

#### Dealing with integrated soil research and training to face climate change, overcome land degradation and ensure food security in Madagascar

E. Blanchart (1); H. Razakamanarivo (2); T. Rafoliso (2); A. Andriamanjara (2); T.M. Razafimbelo (3); L.Rahabiso (4); M. Bernoux (5); A. Albrecht (5); T. Chevallier (5); JL Chotte (5); L. Bernard (1); T. Becquer (5); J. Trap (6); M. Brossard (5); C. Feller (5); L. Chapuis-Lardy (5); J. Larvy- Delahaye (5); D. Masse (5)

(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Délégement (IRD), UMR Eco&Sols, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (2) Laboratoire des Radiol isotopes-Université d'Antananarivo, RadioAgronomie, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (3) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des Radiol isotopes, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (4) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des Radio Isotopes, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (5) Institut de Recherche pour le Délégement, UMR Eco&Sols, Montpellier, France; (6) Institut de Recherche pour le Délégement (IRD), UMR eco&sols, Antananarivo, France

Madagascar in a tropical country, hotspotted of biodiversity, where people welfare greatly depends on natural resources, i.e., soil, water, forests, biodiversity. As a rural country, the need of agriculture and forest product is important inducing pressures on lands which have negative feedbacks on population such as soil erosion, loss of fertility, loss of biodiversity, vulnerability to climate change, deforestation, etc. Population livelihood and resource preservation together are therefore integrated in national development policies. These issues are also closely related with international objectives designed by three major conventions of the United Nations: Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC, Convention on Biological Biodiversity UN CBD, Convention to combat Desertification UNCCD. In this context, there is a great need and urgency to undertake research and capacity building. For 10 years, the data of the Radiol isotopes, UMR (University of Antananarivo) and IRD (French Institute of Research for Development, Research Unit Eco&Sols - Functional Ecology and Biogeochemistry of soils and agroecosystems) developed integrated research and educational activities on the understanding of soil ecosystem services and their responses to global change for a better decision-making on ecosystem and agrosystem management to improve livelihood and contribute to national development. LRI and IRD together undertook jointly research on Malagasy soil properties and cartography, soil and biomass carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas GH emissions from eco- and agrosystems, nutrient recycling and crop production, and the role of soil biodiversity in these processes. Part of these studies is related to international frameworks such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), REALU (Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses) and/or is shared with other African countries such as in the case of the CaSA framework (Soil Carbon for a sustainable agriculture in Africa, funded by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Studies were undertaken at different levels: from plots to local and national levels. Different agroecosystems were also studied in order to cover the variety of existing systems and depending on