# The contribution of agroforestry systems to climate change mitigation - Assessment of C storage in soils in a Mediterranean context

Claire Chenu, Rémi Cardinael, Tiphaine Chevallier, - Germon A, Christophe

Jourdan, Christian Dupraz, Bernard Barthès, Martial Bernoux

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## ► To cite this version:

Claire Chenu, Rémi Cardinael, Tiphaine Chevallier, - Germon A, Christophe Jourdan, et al.. The contribution of agroforestry systems to climate change mitigation - Assessment of C storage in soils in a Mediterranean context. International scientific and professional conference, Our common future under climate change, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 858 p., 2015. [hal-02739812](https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02739812)

HAL Id: hal-02739812

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02739812

Submitted on 2 Jun 2020

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OUR UNDER
COMMON CLIMATE
FUTURE CHANGE

International Scientific Conference
ABSTRACT BOOK

7-10 July 2015 • Paris, France
This Abstract book is based on a compilation of all abstracts selected for oral and poster presentations, as of 15 May 2015.

Due to the inability of some authors to attend, some of those works will therefore not be presented during the conference.
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OUR UNDER
COMMON CLIMATE
FUTURE CHANGE

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

# Welcome to the Conference

Welcome to Paris, welcome to 'Our Common Future under Climate Change'!

On behalf of the High Level Board, the Organizing Committee and the Scientific Committee, it is our pleasure to welcome you to Paris to the largest forum for the scientific community to come together ahead of COP21, hosted by France in December 2015 ("Paris Climat 2015").

Building on the results of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), this four-day conference will address key issues concerning climate change in the broader context of global change. It will offer an opportunity to discuss solutions for both mitigation and adaptation issues. The Conference also aims to contribute to a science-society dialogue, notably thanks to specific sessions with stakeholders during the event and through nearly 80 accredited side events taking place all around the world from June 1st to July 15th.

When putting together this event over the past months, we were greatly encouraged by the huge interest from the global scientific community, with more than 400 parallel sessions and 2200 abstracts submitted, eventually leading to the organization of 140 parallel sessions.

Strong support was also received from many public French, European and international institutions and organizations, allowing us to invite many keynote speakers and fund the participation of more than 120 young researchers from developing countries. Let us warmly thank all those who made this possible.

The International Scientific Committee deserves warm thanks for designing plenary and large parallel sessions as well as supervising the call for contributions and the call for sessions, as well as the merging process of more than 400 parallel sessions into 140 parallel sessions. The Organizing Committee did its best to ensure that the overall organization for the conference was relevant to the objectives and scope. The High Level Board raised the funds, engaged the scientific community to contribute and accredited side events. The Conference Secretariat worked hard to make this event happening. The Communication Advisory Board was instrumental in launching and framing our communication activities on different media. We are very grateful to all.

We very much hope that you will enjoy your stay in Paris and benefit from exciting scientific

interactions, contributing to the future scientific agenda. We also hope that the conference will facilitate, encourage and develop connections between scientists and stakeholders, allowing to draw new avenues in the research agenda engaging the scientific community to elaborate, asses and monitor solutions to tackle climate change together with other major global challenges, including sustainable development goals.

Christopher Field, Chair, CFCC15 Scientific Committee

Jean Jouzel, Chair, CFCC15 High Level Board

Hervé Le Treut, Chair, CFCC15 Organizational Committee
# Committees

## Scientific committee

- Chris FIELD (IPCC, USA) - Chair

- Philippe CIAIS (LSCE, France)

- Wolfgang CRAMER (IMBE, France)

- Purnamita DASGUPTA (IEG, India)

- Ruth DEFRIES (Colombia University, USA)

- Navroz DUBASH (CPR, India)

- Ottmar EDENHOFER (PIK, Germany / IPCC, USA)

- Michael GRUBB (University College London, UK)

- Jean-Charles HOUCADE (CNRS- France)

- Sheila JASANOFF (Harvard Kenny School of Government, USA)

- Kejun JIANG (Nanyang Technological University, China)

- Vladimir KATTSO (MGO, Russia)

- Hervé LE TREUT, France (CNRS-UPMC/France)

- Emilio LEBRE LA ROVERE (National University, Brazil)

- Valérie MASSON-DELMOTTE (LSCE/IPSL, France)

- Cheik MBOW (ICRAF, Kenya)

- Isabelle NIANG-DIOP (IRD, Senegal)

- Carlos NOBRE (SEPED/MCTI, Brazil)

- Karen O'BRIEN (University of Oslo, Norway)

- Joe JACQUELINE PEREIRA (University Kebangsaan, Malaysia)

- Shilong PIAO (Peking University, China)

- Hans OTTO PÖRTNER (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)

- Monika RHEIN (University of Bremen, Germany)

- Johan ROCKSTRÖM (Stockholm University, Sweden)

- Hans Joachim SCHELLNHUBER (PIK, Germany)

- Robert SCHOLES (University of Witwatersrand, South Africa)

- Pete SMITH (University of Aberdeen, UK)

- Youba SOKONA (The South Centre, Switzerland)

- Jean-François SOUSSANA (INRA, France)

- Mark STAFFORD-SMITH (Future Earth, Australia)

- Thomas STOCKER (University of Bern, Switzerland)

- Laurence TUBIANA (IDDRI, France)

- Diana ÜRGE-VORSATZ (Central European University, Hungary)

- Penny URQUHART (Independent analyst, South Africa)

- Carolina VERA (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)

- Alistair WOODWARD (University of Auckland, New Zealand)
# Organizing committee

## Chair:

- Hervé Le Treut (CNRS-UPMC)

## Members:

- Wolfgang Cramer (CNRS/Future Earth)

- Pascale Delecluse (CNRS)

- Robert Kandel (CNRS/Ecole polytechnique)

- Frank Lecocq (AgroParis Tech/CIRED)

- Lucilla Spini (ICSU)

- Jean-François Soussana (INRA)

- Marie-Ange Theobald (UNESCO)

- Stéphanie Thiébault (CNRS)

- Sébastien Treyer (IDDRI)

## Conference Secretariat:

- Claire Weill, Head (INRA)

- Géraldine Chouteau (Météo-France)

- Aglaé Jézéquel (INRA)

- Gaëlle Jotham (INRA)

- Ingrid Le Ru (IDDRI)

- Benoît Martimort-Asso (IRD)

- Nadia Mersali (IDDRI)

- Catherine Michaut (CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL)

- Aline Nehmé (INRA)

- Jeremy Zuber (INRA)

- Aimie Eliot (INRA)

- Eve Le Dem (INRA)

# Communication Advisory Board:

- Richard Black, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit

- Hunter Cutting, Climate Nexus

- Owen Gaffney, Future Earth/Stockholm Resilience Centre

- Kalee Kreider, United Nations Foundation

- Michelle Kovacevic, Communications consultant

- Jonathan Lynn, IPCC

- Kim Nicholas, Lund University

- Tim Nuthall, European Climate Foundation

- Nicholas Nuttall, UNFCC

- Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief

- Charlotte Smith, Communications INC

- Sue Williams, UNESCO

- Denise Young, ICSU

- Jeremy Zuber (INRA)
High Level Board

- Future Earth

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

- International Council for Science (ICSU)

- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

- World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

- European Commission - Climate action

- European Investment Bank (EIB)

- The World Bank

- Ministère de l'agriculture, de l'agroalimentaire et de la forêt

- Ministère de l'écologie, du développement durable et de l'énergie

- Ministère de l'éducation nationale, de l'enseignement supérieur et de la recherche

- Ministère des affaires étrangères et du développement international

- Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique

- Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières (BRGM)

- Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD)

- Centre national d'études spatiales (CNES)

- Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)

- Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)

- Institut de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)

- Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)

- Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer (IFREMER)

- Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l'aménagement et des réseaux (IFSTTAR)

- Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)

- Météo France

- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)

- Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l'énergie (ANCRE)

- Alliance nationale de recherche pour l'environnement (ALLENVI)

- Alliance nationale des sciences humaines et sociales (Athéna)

- Alliance nationale pour les sciences de la vie et de la santé (Aviesan)

- Agence de l'environnement et de la maîtrise de l'énergie (ADEME)

- Agence française du développement (AFD)

- Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR)

- Conférence des présidents d'université (CPU)

- Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)

- Kic Climat

- Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI)

- International institute for environment and development (IIED)

- Sustainable development solutions network (SDSN)

- The energy and resources institute (TERI)

- Universcience

- Ville de Paris

- Région Ile de France
TABLE OF CONTENT

<table><tr><td>L1.1 - Climate variability and change over the last millennia: Paleoclimate information and climate simulations</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>L1.2 - Climate Change and Land Systems: Impacts and Feedbacks</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>L1.3 - Climate Change and Ocean Systems: Introduction and Background</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>L1.4 - Climate change and health - Risks and Responses</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>L1.5 - Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>L2.1 - Drivers of Change and Visions of Development: Are Climate Policy and Development Compatible Goals?</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>L2.2 - New pledges (INDCs) for 2025/2030: Are they reinforcing development and consistent with a 2 oC pathway?</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>L2.3 - Climatic Variability and the Social and Human Dimensions of Vulnerability</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>L2.4 - Early Warning for Thresholds and Tipping Points in the Earth System</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>L2.5 - Food and water security under climate change</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>L3.1 - Socio-economics and Instruments for Transforming the Energy Sector: Economic Policy Tools for Mitigation of Energy-related GHG Emissions</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>L3.2 - Transformational Energy Technologies</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>L3.3 - Managing Transitions in Cities: Towards resilient, low-carbon cities</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>L3.4 - Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Biodiversity Conservation: How we can help organisms to adapt by themselves, what the limits are, and how we can use ecosystem processes to help people adapt</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>L3.5 - Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>L4.1 - The climate, finance and trade nexus: turning a political challenge into a sustainable development opportunity</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>L4.2 - Resilience and Transformative Solutions - Refining Old Strategies and Developing New Ones for Adaptation in Island Environments</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>L4.3 - Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: exploring the conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>L4.4 - Multilevel Governance of Climate Change - New Strategies for Coordinating Policies on Mitigation and Adaptation</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>L4.5 - Equity: A Condition to Triggering Action ?</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>1101 - From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: the history of human-environmental interactions</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>1102 - From past to future Climate Changes</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>1103 - Climate variability and external forcings of the Common Era with special focus on the role of volcanic eruptions</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>1104 - Climate services and information: from global change to local decisions</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>1105a - Assessing climate observations</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>1105b - Quality and availability of data for global sustainability</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>1106 - The Earth's energy imbalance and exchanges at the atmosphere-ocean interface: from fundamental research to societal concern</td><td>72</td></tr><tr><td>1107 - Sea level rise and ice sheets</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>1108 - Middle Atmosphere influence on Climate</td><td>81</td></tr><tr><td>1109 - Understanding the Earth's changing water cycle</td><td>85</td></tr><tr><td>1110 - Observing the changing ocean climate</td><td>88</td></tr><tr><td>1111 - Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans</td><td>93</td></tr><tr><td>1112 - The Arctic Climate system</td><td>99</td></tr><tr><td>1113 - Climate Extremes: Patterns, Mechanisms and Impacts</td><td>101</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>1114</td><td>Global emissions and their implications for climate targets</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>1115</td><td>GHG Monitoring</td><td>119</td></tr><tr><td>1116</td><td>Biogeochemical Feedbacks to Climate Change</td><td>128</td></tr><tr><td>1117</td><td>Understanding decadal variations in the climate system and implications for the future</td><td>136</td></tr><tr><td>1118a</td><td>Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events changing and why?</td><td>153</td></tr><tr><td>1118b</td><td>Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events changing and why?</td><td>155</td></tr><tr><td>1119a</td><td>Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales</td><td>158</td></tr><tr><td>1119b</td><td>Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales</td><td>160</td></tr><tr><td>1121</td><td>Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact Assessment</td><td>168</td></tr><tr><td>1122</td><td>Global warming hiatus</td><td>176</td></tr><tr><td>1123</td><td>Climate change education for sustainable development</td><td>178</td></tr><tr><td>2201</td><td>Between the cracks of future climate projections: exploring weather events and climate scenarios with no precedence</td><td>185</td></tr><tr><td>2202</td><td>Turn down the Heat: Climate Change Impacts, Development and Lock-in</td><td>187</td></tr><tr><td>2203</td><td>Defining dangerous climate change: Contributions from the AR5 'Key Risks' and 'Reasons for Concern' frameworks and future directions</td><td>191</td></tr><tr><td>2204</td><td>A world above 2°C global warming: understanding risks and developing transformative solutions</td><td>194</td></tr><tr><td>2205</td><td>Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming</td><td>201</td></tr><tr><td>2206</td><td>The World in 2050 - What does it look like and how do we get</td><td>206</td></tr><tr><td>2207</td><td>Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming and acidification on natural and human systems</td><td>207</td></tr><tr><td>2208</td><td>Deep-sea ecosystems and climate-change: new perspectives to address knowledge gaps in impact assessment</td><td>212</td></tr><tr><td>2209</td><td>Transformative pathways to sustain marine ecosystems and their services under climate change</td><td>214</td></tr><tr><td>2210</td><td>Coastal Impacts of Climate Change</td><td>219</td></tr><tr><td>2211</td><td>Climate change in mountains: from impacts to resilience</td><td>225</td></tr><tr><td>2212a</td><td>Climate change and freshwater - 1: State of knowledge</td><td>232</td></tr><tr><td>2212b</td><td>Climate change and freshwater - 2: Shaping the Future</td><td>241</td></tr><tr><td>2213</td><td>Ecological feedbacks to climate change</td><td>249</td></tr><tr><td>2214</td><td>Climate-ready adaptation for conservation and ecosystem services</td><td>252</td></tr><tr><td>2215</td><td>Tropical degraded forests response to global change: current knowledge and cross-cutting research challenges for monitoring and processes understanding</td><td>260</td></tr><tr><td>2216</td><td>Climate smart forestry- Integrating mitigation and adaptation into sustainable development</td><td>267</td></tr><tr><td>2217</td><td>Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system</td><td>273</td></tr><tr><td>2218</td><td>Land-based mitigation: agriculture, forests, bioenergy</td><td>287</td></tr><tr><td>2219</td><td>Politics and numbers: Political and technical challenges in reducing emissions from forests with REDD+</td><td>293</td></tr><tr><td>2220</td><td>Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice</td><td>303</td></tr><tr><td>2222</td><td>Semi-Arid Regions Adaptation</td><td>307</td></tr><tr><td>2223</td><td>Modeling Our Agricultural Future</td><td>313</td></tr><tr><td>2224</td><td>Agrarian and pastoral societies: adaptive strategies and innovations</td><td>323</td></tr><tr><td>2225</td><td>Climate Smart Agriculture: Propaganda or Paradigm Shift?</td><td>335</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>2226</td><td>Health and climate change: the need for a diversity of approaches</td><td>343</td></tr><tr><td>2228</td><td>Removing Barriers to Climate Change Mitigation at City Level</td><td>348</td></tr><tr><td>2229</td><td>Cities and their environments: Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation strategies across scales from rural to urban</td><td>349</td></tr><tr><td>2230</td><td>Transport and climate change: mitigation and adaptation measures for transport infrastructures</td><td>354</td></tr><tr><td>2231</td><td>Cultural Heritage facing up to Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Pollution</td><td>358</td></tr><tr><td>2232</td><td>The Copernicus Climate Change Service: an European answer to Climate Change Challenges</td><td>364</td></tr><tr><td>2233</td><td>Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: International and Urban approaches</td><td>367</td></tr><tr><td>2234</td><td>Building Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes: Sustainable Solutions Grounded in Socio-Cultural Context</td><td>371</td></tr><tr><td>2235</td><td>Reinforcing Resilience</td><td>374</td></tr><tr><td>2236</td><td>Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions</td><td>378</td></tr><tr><td>2237a</td><td>Planetary Economics (1): Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Policy Action</td><td>387</td></tr><tr><td>2237b</td><td>Planetary Economics (2): expanding the horizons of economic sciences and the policy implications</td><td>389</td></tr><tr><td>2238</td><td>Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Science in Collaboration for Our Common Future</td><td>391</td></tr><tr><td>2239</td><td>Co-production of knowledge: How to interact to produce climate adaptation research, between scientific communities and stakeholders, at local or international, also between North and South countries?</td><td>398</td></tr><tr><td>2240</td><td>Perceptions of climate change</td><td>405</td></tr><tr><td>2241</td><td>New representations and new frames for the climate change debate</td><td>414</td></tr><tr><td>2242</td><td>Migration dynamics under current and future climate change</td><td>416</td></tr><tr><td>2243</td><td>Multi scale adaptation and responses in vulnerable coastal sectors under climate change risks</td><td>423</td></tr><tr><td>2244</td><td>Climate Change Biodiversity and Human Well-Being: illustration from forests and agro-forests systems</td><td>432</td></tr><tr><td>2245</td><td>Modelling the complexities of the Earth System</td><td>436</td></tr><tr><td>3301</td><td>Climate Intervention: Evaluating its Risks, Benefits, and Potential</td><td>441</td></tr><tr><td>3302</td><td>Key Energy Technologies for Low Carbon Pathways</td><td>446</td></tr><tr><td>3303</td><td>Decarbonizing Electricity/Electricity Transition</td><td>449</td></tr><tr><td>3304</td><td>Climate change, carbon budgets and energy sector regulation</td><td>460</td></tr><tr><td>3305</td><td>Energy efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demand</td><td>462</td></tr><tr><td>3306</td><td>Transitioning from fossil fuels and avoiding lock-ins</td><td>473</td></tr><tr><td>3307</td><td>Negative emissions for climate change stabilization & the role of CO2 geological storage</td><td>476</td></tr><tr><td>3308</td><td>Fiscal Reform</td><td>482</td></tr><tr><td>3309</td><td>Costs and benefits of adaptation: Lessons from developed and developing countries</td><td>484</td></tr><tr><td>3310</td><td>Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities?</td><td>487</td></tr><tr><td>3311</td><td>Climate mitigation policies - learning, evaluating and comparing national experiences</td><td>489</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>3312</td><td>Planning and assessing adaptation: Frameworks, methods and results</td><td>495</td></tr><tr><td>3313</td><td>Coordinated Adaptation to Climate Change</td><td>507</td></tr><tr><td>3314</td><td>Innovate for addressing climate change challenges: examples from different industries</td><td>512</td></tr><tr><td>3315</td><td>Energy Innovation for Climate Change: systems approaches and societal responses</td><td>513</td></tr><tr><td>3316</td><td>Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change</td><td>523</td></tr><tr><td>3317</td><td>Mainstreaming low carbon consumption: challenges and opportunities</td><td>528</td></tr><tr><td>3318</td><td>Sustainable strategies to mitigate climate and improve public health in developed and developing countries</td><td>533</td></tr><tr><td>3320</td><td>Food Systems and Food Security: Health and Environment</td><td>537</td></tr><tr><td>3321</td><td>Health Responses</td><td>546</td></tr><tr><td>3322a</td><td>Representation of technological dynamics and societal transformation</td><td>555</td></tr><tr><td>3322b</td><td>Development of pathways: their mix of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties and their future under a changing climate</td><td>556</td></tr><tr><td>3323</td><td>Governance and Justice</td><td>563</td></tr><tr><td>3324</td><td>Paradigms for Building Resilience from Cross-scale Integrated Risk Governance Perspectives</td><td>565</td></tr><tr><td>3325a</td><td>Overcoming barriers to transitions: knowledge to action and the importance of communication</td><td>567</td></tr><tr><td>3325b</td><td>Creating the climate change groundswell by communicating business, science and regional activity</td><td>568</td></tr><tr><td>3326</td><td>The Mediterranean Basin in a warmer and drier world: challenges and opportunities</td><td>572</td></tr><tr><td>3327</td><td>Adapting to Arctic Climate Change</td><td>580</td></tr><tr><td>3328</td><td>Climate Change Challenges, Adaptation Barriers and Responses</td><td>582</td></tr><tr><td>3329</td><td>How Might East African Landscapes Respond to Future Climate Change?</td><td>589</td></tr><tr><td>3330a</td><td>Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa</td><td>593</td></tr><tr><td>3330b</td><td>Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa</td><td>595</td></tr><tr><td>3331</td><td>Forest landscape management to create resilience in the face of climate change in West and Central Africa</td><td>624</td></tr><tr><td>3332</td><td>Asia on the Frontlines: Projected Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation</td><td>628</td></tr><tr><td>3333</td><td>China's climate policies and low-carbon innovation</td><td>631</td></tr><tr><td>3335</td><td>Climate Change Mitigation in Latin America</td><td>633</td></tr><tr><td>3336</td><td>Post-2030 decarbonisation pathways in Europe</td><td>637</td></tr><tr><td>3337</td><td>Facing floods and climate challenges: designing governance arrangements and unlocking financing on the pathway to resilient cities</td><td>637</td></tr><tr><td>3338</td><td>European Collaborative Research and Innovation for Climate Action</td><td>641</td></tr><tr><td>3339</td><td>Effective design and implementation of EU climate policy</td><td>642</td></tr><tr><td>3340</td><td>Conflict and Climate Change</td><td>644</td></tr><tr><td>3341</td><td>Gender and Climate Change: From Vulnerability to Mainstreaming in Adaptation and Mitigation</td><td>646</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>3342</td><td>Developing Capacity through Low Carbon Initiatives, Climate Adaptation and Increased Resilience to Climate Impacts in the Asia-Pacific Region</td><td>652</td></tr><tr><td>4401</td><td>Sustainable development goals and the new climate regime: synergies for change?</td><td>656</td></tr><tr><td>4402a</td><td>Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements</td><td>658</td></tr><tr><td>4402b</td><td>Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements</td><td>660</td></tr><tr><td>4403</td><td>Revising the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement architecture for better governance and outcomes</td><td>668</td></tr><tr><td>4404</td><td>Climate finance: New sources, new instruments, more effects?</td><td>671</td></tr><tr><td>4405</td><td>On the macroeconomic opportunity of climate policy</td><td>673</td></tr><tr><td>4406a</td><td>Climate, Sustainable Development and Energy Security</td><td>676</td></tr><tr><td>4406b</td><td>Climate change and Development: Alleviating poverty and achieving inclusive development within the constraints of a global carbon budget and other planetary boundaries.</td><td>678</td></tr><tr><td>4407</td><td>The Challenges and Opportunities of Multilevel Adaptation Governance</td><td>683</td></tr><tr><td>4408</td><td>Risk and Insurance</td><td>687</td></tr><tr><td>4409a</td><td>The «new» climate governance: Driving societal transformations?</td><td>689</td></tr><tr><td>4409b</td><td>Climate Governance: New and emerging challenges after Paris</td><td>689</td></tr><tr><td>4410</td><td>Citizens and governments as drivers of cultural and political change</td><td>705</td></tr><tr><td>4411</td><td>Can the Green Economy save the climate?</td><td>709</td></tr><tr><td>4412</td><td>Inequalities, responsibilities and equity in global climate policy</td><td>713</td></tr><tr><td>4413a</td><td>Technology, transformations and capabilities in developing countries</td><td>719</td></tr><tr><td>4413b</td><td>Environmental policies to enable innovation and transformation</td><td>720</td></tr><tr><td>4414</td><td>Leveraging Multi-layered Climate Science-Policy Social Learning and Dialogue for Transformative Solutions: Towards A Proposal to "Decade for Accelerating Climate Dialogue for Action"</td><td>723</td></tr><tr><td>4415a</td><td>Urban policies for Accessibility, Mobility and Informal settlements in the Global South to cope with Climate Change: Emerging Issues, Innovations and Opportunities</td><td>734</td></tr><tr><td>4415b</td><td>Transformative solutions for urban sustainability governance: Multi-level government and cross-sectoral collaboration for efficient climate action</td><td>737</td></tr><tr><td>4417</td><td>Transforming Society and Science for Sustainability - Addressing Challenges in Transdisciplinary Research</td><td>742</td></tr><tr><td>4418a</td><td>Information for decision-making - How to engage in future thinking or plan for the long term.</td><td>747</td></tr><tr><td>4418b</td><td>Information for decision making - Improve availability, access and use of information</td><td>748</td></tr><tr><td>4419</td><td>Climate science in the public sphere. Media coverage and communication devices analysis for effective policy implementation.</td><td>763</td></tr><tr><td>4420a</td><td>How to price carbon for industry?</td><td>766</td></tr><tr><td>4420b</td><td>What role of carbon pricing in a post Paris world?</td><td>768</td></tr></table>
# L1.1 - Climate variability and change over the last millennia: Paleoclimate information and climate simulations

## K-L1.1-01

### Model-data comparison over the last millennium: progress, uncertainties and challenges

F. Gondlez Rouco (1)

(1) Instituto de Geociencias, Madrid, Spain

Present day climate variability and change, including recent anthropogenic warming, poses questions that cannot be answered based solely upon instrumental records. The last two millennia (L2k), and specifically the last millennium (LM), are immediate temporal intervals that involve climate processes similar to nowadays. The last 2k and LM have the potential to expand our understanding of climate variability from inter-annual and decadal to multi- centennial timescales, place a wider context for current warming and explore internally induced and externally forced responses of the climate system. Knowledge about past-based climate reconstructions, paleoclimate model simulations and estimations of external radiative forcing emerge then as key elements to gain insights about the relative roles of internal versus forced variability.

Comparisons of last millennium simulations and reconstructions constitute opportunities for learning about pre-instrumental climate variability beyond the last 100 years. The uncertainties in reconstructions and model experiments can affect themselves. Model-data comparisons provide insight about the relative roles of internal variability and external natural or anthropogenic induced changes and the processes involved. The relatively short ranges of external forcing variability within the last 2k/LM nevertheless make these comparisons challenging and further complicated by the large uncertainties that affect both reconstructions and model simulations (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2013).

This work reports on the progress of about a decade of efforts in L2k/LM model-data comparison and discusses how model-data comparison exercises focused on the last millennium can improve our understanding of decadal to multi-centennial climate variability as well as contribute to our knowledge of present and future climate and/or associated projection uncertainties. For this purpose, the available continent-wide hemispherical and global L2k/LM temperature reconstructions, an ensemble of simulations including both Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III / Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (MPIP3/CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012) and non- MPIP3 model experiments, as well as the external forcing configurations applied (Schmidt et al. 2012) are analysed. In addition, for each simulation considered, a total external forcing (TEF), including all individual forcing factors, is estimated as a simple approach to compare the total radiative forcing applied to each experiment (Fernandez- Donado et al., 2013).

At hemispherical and global scales, simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on the major temperature changes and suggest, despite the important influence of the internal variability, an overall linear response to external forcing above multidecadal timescales. The rate of temperature response to LM changes in TEF is quantified as a metric of the transient climate response during the LM (LMTCR) and its distribution from the model and reconstructed ensembles are compared to other estimates of climate sensitivity and transient climate response. LMTCR also allows to frame a simple quantitative comparison between simulations and reconstructions where discrepant behaviors can be singled out. The uncertainties in reconstructions and model experiments that impact our understanding of simulated and reconstruction responses at these spatial scales are also discussed.

At regional/continental scales we focus on the assessment of MPIP3/CMIP5 experiments and temperature reconstructions developed within the PAGES 2k project (PAGS 2k consortium 2013) and their responses to forcing and report on their consistency across regions and timescales. Inter-regional behavior is more homogeneous

in the simulated than in the reconstructed climates. Agreement between simulations and reconstructions is higher for Northern Hemisphere regions whilst models disagree more with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Fernández-Donado, L. et al., 2013: Temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 9, 393-421.

Masson-Delmotte, V., M. et al., 2013: Information from Paleoclimate Archives. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Böschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346.

Schmidt, G. A., et al., 2012: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185-191.

Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93.

## K-L1.1-02

### Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the past millennium

V. Masson-Delmotte (1); P. Ortega (2); F. Lehner (3); D. Swingedouw (4); CC. Raible (5); M. Casado (6); P. Yiou (7) (1) IPSL, Paris; (2) IPSL/IPSU, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) University of Bern, Climate and environmental physics, physics institute, Bern, Switzerland; (4) Université de Bordeaux, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France; (5) University of Bern, Climate and environmental physics, physics institute, Bern, Switzerland; (6) IPSL/IPSU, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (7) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter atmospheric circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere. This atmospheric mode is characterized by a changing dipole of sea-level pressure between the Azores and Iceland, and has widespread impacts on temperature, precipitation, storm tracks and therefore on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management.

Recent developments of dynamical methods offer promising advances for seasonal NAO predictions. However, assessing potential predictability at multi-annual time scales requires a documentation of past NAO low-frequency variability. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the last millennium suggests that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions over Europe; however, this result is still debated. Here, we present a new annually-resolved NAO reconstruction for the last millennium based on an initial selection of 48 proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding continents and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. This approach has been validated in perfect model analyses, using climate simulations as physically consistent surrogates of the real world. The analysis makes evident that the multi-proxy reconstruction outperforms the bi- proxy index.

The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth
centuries. It also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines.

## K-L1.1-03

### European summer hydroclimate variability during the last millennium

H. Lindbergh (1) ; K. Seftigen (2) ; E. Cook (3) ; D. Chen (4) ; T. Ou (4)

(1) University of Göteborg, Institute of geography, Göteborg, Sweden; (2) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; (3) Columbia University, Lamont-doherty earth observatory, Columbia, United States of America; (4) Gothenburg University, Department of earth sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden

Associated with global warming, changes in extreme weather and climate events have been observed in Europe, including increased frequencies of heat waves as well as the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events. In a future warmer world, it is likely that the risk of hydroclimatological extremes will increase. Extreme hydroclimatic events, such as droughts and floods, can have significant impacts on society, e.g. by affecting food availability, water quality, health, energy, infrastructure etc., but also on ecosystems. It is apparent that climate variability and change already pose a challenge to Europe's economic sectors, production systems, and ecosystems. Increased drought frequency will significantly affect natural and human systems, and compared to other hazards, they can persist for long periods and affect large areas. Floods, associated with heavy precipitation events, can pose threats to human life and property, and also affect water quality, e.g. by spreading pollutants and fertilizers.

Clearly, society must prepare for an intensification of hydroclimate extremes in the future. However, major uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist in understanding and modeling hydroclimate, making it difficult to quantify future changes and their impacts on systems and sectors. A prerequisite to mitigate extreme hydroclimatological events is good understanding of their spatiotemporal characteristics as well as the mechanisms generating such events. However, the lack of instrumental observations limits the period of spatial analysis to the recent century, making it difficult to fully understand natural hydroclimate variability.

Tree rings can provide annually resolved environmental and climate information and are widely used as proxies of past climatic events, such as drought or floods. The wide geographical distribution of tree-ring chronologies, compared to most other high-resolution climate proxies, provides a potential to infer past climate change on large spatial scales. Recently, past hydroclimate variability has been reconstructed from networks of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies in North America and Monsoons. These reconstructions have not only provided valuable information of past hydroclimatic characteristics, but they have also contributed essential background data for increasing the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past drought variability.

This presentation will focus on a new reconstruction of summer hydroclimate variability in Fennoscandia during the last millennium. Using tree-ring data from a dense network, a point-by-point multiple nested regression approach was used to reconstruct June through August average Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5°. We will show that the data provides highly useful information of regional natural hydroclimate variability in time and space in a long-term context, making it possible to assess the impact of global warming on hydroclimate in Fennoscandia. It also allows for identification of historical extreme hydrological events, including severity, duration and magnitude. Moreover, we will discuss potential drivers of hydroclimate regional drought variability on different time scales. Finally, we will take a broader, European, look on summer hydroclimate variability during the last 1000 years.

## K-L1.1-04

### Atmospheric carbon dioxide tracks climate and land carbon changes during the past millennium

T. K. Bauska (1)

(1) University of Cambridge, Department of earth sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom

The land carbon reservoir is predicted to turn into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere if global warming continues unabated. Multi-decadal, global-scale observations needed to test this prediction are difficult adding uncertainties to projections of atmospheric CO2 and climate. Ice core records of the last millennium document atmospheric CO2 variations on multi-decadal to centennial timescales but attempts to constrain the underlying drivers of atmospheric CO2 using the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide (δ13C-CO2) have been limited by the precision and temporal resolution of existing data. This spurred discussion on the magnitude of climate-carbon feedbacks and emissions from past anthropogenic land use change.

We developed a new high-resolution, high-precision ice core record of δ13C-CO2 and use it to show that terrestrial organic carbon likely controlled multi-decadal scale atmospheric CO2 variability from 760-1850 C.E. Our results put strong limits on the net source of land carbon to the atmosphere prior to the Industrial period. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes, they must have been offset by some natural 13C depleted land sink, plausibly peatlands. On multi-decadal timescales, carbon cycle changes appear to covary with reconstructed regional climate changes, consistent with climate as an important driver of land carbon storage on these time scales.

Our new observations present a challenging benchmark for models attempting to simulate the climate and carbon cycle of the past in order to understand the projections for the future. However, reducing the uncertainties in past temperature reconstructions and developing stronger constraints on pre-industrial anthropogenic emissions are likely needed to provide further insight into climate-carbon cycle interactions.

## L1.2 - Climate Change and Land Systems: Impacts and Feedbacks

### K-L1.2-01

#### Climate change and land systems: Impacts and feedbacks related to drought

S. Seneviratne (1)

(1) ETH, Zurich, Institute for atmospheric and climate science, Zurich, Switzerland

Land systems have numerous two-way interactions with the climate system. While they are often strongly affected by climate variability and changes, in particular in relation to droughts and hot extremes, they also impact climate through direct forcing and feedbacks. In particular, the modulation of soil water dynamics by ecosystems is an

important factor affecting itself the evolution of droughts and heatwaves in several regions. In addition, human management, e.g. through changes in surface properties associated with agriculture practice, also affects these interactions. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the underlying mechanisms, including insights from new research, and will introduce the main topics addressed in this session.
## Climate and the water-energy-food nexus

C. Dalin (1)

(1) LSE, Grantham research institute, London, United Kingdom

Water, energy and food are essential for human well-being, and socio-economic development. Global projections indicate that demand for these resources will increase significantly over the next decades, under the pressure of population growth, economic development, urbanisation, diversifying diets, cultural and technological changes, and climate variability (Hoff 2011). Annual and seasonal climate variability as well as climate change, strongly affect all components of the water-energy-food axis, adding to the challenge of using resources sustainably across sectors. While uncertainties remain high, climate models project decreases in annual precipitation in many developing countries, e.g. by as much as 20% in southern Africa by 2080. These changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields, which, combined with projected population growth, reinforces the need for planners to collaborate across sectors and account for climate variability and change. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies in the nexus should inform policies, institutions, and investments for enhancing water, energy, and food security, and thus support sustainable development in climate-sensitive environments. This presentation will highlight the importance of recognising these linkages, and identify spatial and topical hotspots in current nexus research.

## Revising the planetary boundary for freshwater use

D. Gertsen (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Nine intertwined 'planetary boundaries' demarcate the multidimensional 'safe' space for key earth system processes. Leaving this safe space due to the environmental imprint of collective human activities, Earth may be made out of its own volition, which up to now enabled the development of a human society of several billion people. While the concept and quantitative basis of planetary boundaries has recently undergone a comprehensive update (Steffen et al., Science, 2015), some boundaries still require a more robust quantification, especially in terms of upscaling regional patterns to the planetary scale and in terms of boundary interactions. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of development pathways for civil society under the constraint of planetary boundaries are still lacking.

This talk shows ways to improve the definition and assessment of the planetary boundary for human freshwater use, which is challenging as the regional pattern of water availabilities and limitations and the tight interactions with land cover and use are to be considered. The core approach is to account, spatially explicitly, for the environmental flow requirements of riverine ecosystems which define local limitations to human water use and serve as a basis for a geographically explicit 'bottom-up' estimation of the planetary boundary. A pilot assessment - based on high-resolution simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model - indicates that the value of the planetary boundary may be lower than suggested earlier. Different estimation methods to assess environmental flows suggest a value between 1,100 and 1,200 m$^3$ per year. For example, the original estimate from Rockström et al., Nature 2009: 4,000 km$^3$ per year. Thus, humanity's current consumptive water use (at least ~1,600 km$^3$ per year), let alone water withdrawal (~3,600 km$^3$/year), already exceeds the lower end of this range that reflects stringent environmental policies. Moreover, local tolerance limits of water use are already exceeded in many places, such as in parts of southern Europe, southern Asia, the Near and Middle East, and in the western US. Building on these results, the presentation elaborates on how the definition and quantification of the freshwater boundary can be further improved, by example for including 'green' water, by specifying linkages with other planetary boundaries (such as the one for land-system change), and by water ethical considerations. Initial estimates of the potential of improved on-farm water

management to increase crop production while staying within the planetary boundaries for freshwater use and land-system change are also presented.

## Land use changes and their impacts on climate

J. Pongratz (1)

(1) Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

About three quarters of the ice-free land surface have undergone some form of land use change: about one quarter has undergone a change in land cover, in particular deforestation for agricultural expansion; on another one half the vegetation cover has been kept but is managed, as happens e.g. in forestry. This land cover change and land management affects climate through multiple pathways. The political focus mostly lies on land use change as contributor to the human-induced rise in atmospheric CO2 and thus global warming. The local-scale climate, more relevant for adaptation, can show strong effects due to biogeophysical effects such as changes in water and heat fluxes.

Land use change (mostly restricted to land cover change) has therefore entered into most Earth system models (ESMs) used to project climate change. With the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) land use change has for the first time been considered in the climate simulations underlying the IPCC assessment report. However, the spread across model results for both carbon cycle and biogeophysical aspects has been found to be substantial. This initiated a range of studies that aim at understanding the reasons why estimates differ so much. These findings can be arranged along a chain of uncertainties from uncertain land use datasets, differences in their implementation in ESMs, to various definitions of land-use-induced carbon fluxes in models. This talk will discuss these sources of model spread and ways forward to reduce the uncertainties.

Understanding the sources of uncertainty is particularly important now: Recent observational studies suggest that land management can have effects on climate that are of similar strength as those of land cover change, yet occur on much larger area. The ESM community is therefore moving beyond land cover change towards land management for a more complete representation of the human impact on climate.

## Terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks in the climate system

L. Mercado (1)

(1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

Terrestrial ecosystems take up around a quarter of the human CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, land use and land cover changes each year (Le Quéré et al., 2015), mitigating climate change for the present day. Can we rely on this carbon sink in the future?

Terrestrial ecosystems store a vast quantity of carbon in biomass and soils and their storage capacity depends on environmental conditions. Elevated CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, stimulating plant production, and a changing climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) will alter the lifetime of carbon in plants and soils. For example, the seminal work by Cox et al., (2000) suggested that future climate warming will lead to a release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems, through temperature-enhanced soil decomposition, and highlighted the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change. This represents a positive climate carbon cycle feedback, whereby an initial warming leads to a terrestrial release of CO2, which in turn leads to further warming.

Subsequently much research has focused on the role of terrestrial ecosystems and their feedbacks in the Earth system. Here we review the current state-of-the-knowledge drawing from the latest synthesis in the IPCC AR5 WG1 report, and our research at the University of Exeter, Met Office Hadley Centre and Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, UK. In particular, we present the effect of aerosols, implications of plant acclimation to temperature,
and the resilience of tropical forests on the future development of the land carbon sink (Mercado et al., 2009, Booth et al., 2012, Huntingford et al., 2013). I will highlight the key uncertainties in our understanding of climate- terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, and present recent work on emerging constraints on climate carbon cycle feedbacks (Cox et al., 2013, Wenzel et al 2014).

## K-L1.2-06

### Global impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem service supply

**W. Cramer (1)**

(1) CNRS, Imbe, Aix-en-Provence, France

Impacts of recent climate change have been observed and attributed worldwide. Many of these affect land ecosystems, their function and the diversity of organisms

in them. Scenarios of future warming, changes in rainfall patterns, and sea-level rise all indicate significant impacts on biodiversity in natural and managed landscapes, despite uncertainties regarding spatial patterns and confounding drivers such as land use and land management change, and urbanisation. While biodiversity loss may be considered a major impact of climate change in its own right, concerns are growing that the supply of essential services to humanity, where these depend on key ecosystem services, is at risk. For certain key ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, food and timber production, water purification and others, the global nature of possible losses has been considered widely (also by the IPCC), but other ecosystem services are less easily quantified. I will summarise the state of knowledge for more comprehensive assessments of future global biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem service provisioning, and thereby indicate the need for interaction between assessments of risks made by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

## K-L1.3-01

### Climate Change and Ocean Systems: Introduction and Background

**J.P. Gattuso (1)**

(1) CNRS and Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France

The ocean moderates climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. However, despite the ocean's critical role in global ecosystem processes and services, international climate negotiations have only minimally touched on ocean impacts. Any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts will be incomplete and inadequate. This session, as well as session «2207: Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming and acidification on natural and human systems» on Wednesday afternoon will provide an integrated and updated perspective on the changes, risks and projections for both natural and human systems. This will facilitate the construction of key messages for the COP21 negotiation process on the Ocean and associated issues.

## K-L1.3-02

### Challenges to ocean life and associated human interests: IPCC assessments and beyond

**HO. Pörtner (1)**

(1) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

Oceans cover more than 70% of the planet and their biota create half the oxygen humankind uses to breathe and burn fossil fuels. Oceans cover about 11 % of the global population's demand for animal protein. Climate change causes oceans to warm and stratify, and sea level to rise, as well as Arctic summer sea ice to shrink. Ocean warming accounts for more than 90% of the energy accumulated in the climate system. Warming causes oceans to lose oxygen overall and during the expansion of hypoxic water layers. Concomitantly, the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in ocean surface waters disturbs water chemistry and causes acidification. These climate drivers alter ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. They frequently relocate and reduce marine biological resources on which human societies depend, affecting economic benefits, livelihoods, food availability and public health particularly for coastal communities. The recent IPCC assessment report (AR5) as well as the Structured Expert Dialogue have comprehensively considered impacts, vulnerability, adaptation options and projected climate risks for the oceans and their services to humankind. Ocean warming has caused geographical shifts in the distribution of marine species, associated with changes in the species composition and function of ecosystems. Recent meta-

analyses indicate that ambient temperature and hypoxia extremes in some regions are already close to permanent tolerance limits of marine animals and plants indicating a risk of expanding water bodies void of higher marine life. Empirical observations together with mechanism-based knowledge of organism and ecosystem vulnerabilities support the detection of climate impacts in the field and their attribution to climate change. They also support more accurate, higher confidence projections of climate change impacts in the oceans, as well as of associated risk such as of ocean acidification effects on key animal phyla and their economic value. Such assessments of risks were recently developed further by the Oceans 2015 initiative. Warming-induced shifts in ocean productivity and species distribution, including of exploited fish and invertebrates, and declines in their body size are projected to result in reductions of fisheries productivity, especially at lower latitudes. In contrast, fisheries at high latitudes may benefit from increased abundance and diversity of commercially valuable species. Evidence is increasing that anthropogenic ocean acidification is affecting organisms, ecosystems and associated human interests (particularly bivalve fisheries and aquaculture areas with and without a natural or elevated pH). Hypoxic areas that exclude active pelagic fishes such as tuna and their fisheries are expanding. Impacts thus go beyond those of simply warming and include effects of acidification and deoxygenation. These combined effects of the three climate drivers will lead organisms to reach long-term tolerance limits even earlier than with temperature changing alone, enhancing sensitivity through dynamic shifts of thermal limits. For example, recent modeling emphasizes that combined warming and oxygen loss constrain metabolic scope of key species and thereby habitat and biogeographical distribution across wider ocean areas than previously thought. Through effects on performance at the levels of reproduction, behaviour and growth, marine life forms including those that are economically relevant, are thus threatened by climate drivers changing individually and even more so by their additive or synergistic effects. Together with shifts in ocean circulation and productivity the resulting dynamic changes in thermal bioenvelopes have major implications for the ranges of geographical distribution of marine species, their competitive and trophic interactions, population dynamics and community compositions. Such integrative view is also being developed for paleo- observations of climate change effects. It should also be included in modeled projections of ecosystem change, which will inform social-ecological models projecting effects on fisheries and aquaculture. Assessments of risks of ocean warming, deoxygenation, and acidification to ecosystem services have generally concluded that human communities and artisanal fishermen at low latitudes often have the lowest capacity to adapt to losses in natural resources, for example by replacement with alternative foods. Substantial challenges remain to anticipate the ecosystem-wide impacts of the combined drivers of warming, deoxygenation, and acidification, and the ensuing alterations of ecosystem services for human communities. Finally, the projections of climate change impacts in the oceans and along coasts, including sea level rise, and the associated risks and scopes for adaptation,
need to be considered when setting the long-term global goals (LTGG) of climate change mitigation. As an example, the long-term risks of sea-level rise, Arctic sea ice loss and combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification on key groups of corals, bivalves and other calcifiers, that have high economic value in tourism, coastal protection and fisheries, strongly support setting the LTGG to but not above 1.5°C global warming above preindustrial values.

## K-L1.3-03

### Oceans of Concern

**E. Poloczanska (1)**

(1) CSIRO, Ocean and atmosphere flagship, Brisbane, Australia

Climate change and ocean acidification will reorganize food webs and alter ecosystem function, with attendant impacts on human communities and activities. The impacts of climate change have been detected across all oceans; changes to ocean have altered the timing of plankton blooms and migratory patterns and spawning in fish and invertebrates, over recent decades. Shifts in species distributions to higher latitudes are a commonly reported response of marine fishes and invertebrates to warming oceans. Differences in rates of change with climate change amongst species and populations imply

that marine ecosystems may be substantially reorganized at regional scales. Indeed, at a global scale a strong warming signal is already evident in fish catches, with an increasing dominance of warm-water species found in catches coastal and shelf areas. Modelling approaches project a global redistribution of marine biodiversity this century with regional differences driven by species invasions and local extinctions. The emergence of novel assemblages of species with no past or contemporary analogues will consequently require new strategies for managing coastal areas and fisheries. Large changes in species composition are projected in both polar and tropical oceans with increases in species richness at high latitudes. High local extinctions are projected in equatorial oceans, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific, as species are eliminated with warming. The different futures emerge for tropical biodiversity by 2050s under high and low emission scenarios with widespread species losses and declines in species richness around the equator, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific, if global temperatures exceed the 2°C limit. Further, under the medium to high emission scenarios, ocean acidification poses substantial risks to marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs and polar ecosystems. Climate change is a risk food resources, coastal livelihoods, and industries dependent on the Ocean, adding to the threats of over-fishing and other non-climate stressors, and the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits increases with greater rates and magnitude of climate change.

## L1.4 - Climate change and health - Risks and Responses

### K-L1.4-01

#### A holistic approach to assessing the risks of climate change

**D. King (1)**

(1) Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, United Kingdom

Sir David King will present a new approach to assessing the risks of climate change, designed to inform governments' decision-making on how to prioritize the objective of reducing the risks of climate change relative to other national objectives. At the core of this is a different way of interrogating the science: instead of projecting 'most likely' climatic changes and then describing the impacts of those, this approach asks first what it is that we might wish to avoid, and then considers its likelihood as a function of time under different scenarios. This assessment of the science is complemented by assessments of the relative difficulty of achieving different global emissions pathways, and of the systemic risks of climate change to the global economy and international security. When combined with a recognition of the essentially subjective nature of any valuation of future events, this approach can give governments a clearer and more holistic assessment of the risk that climate change poses to their national interests.

### K-L1.4-02

#### 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change: Emergency actions to protect human health

**W. Nick (1)**

(1) Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, London, United Kingdom

In 2009, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change called climate change "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Five years on, a new multidisciplinary, international Commission has formed to map out a comprehensive response to climate change, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. The Commission represents a collaboration between over 80 European and Chinese climate scientists and geographers, social and environmental scientists, biodiversity experts, engineers and energy policy experts, economists, political scientists and public policy experts, and health professionals - all seeking a response to climate change which is designed to protect and promote human health.

Nick Watts will present the key messages and recommendations from the Commission's work.

### K-L1.4-03

#### Climate change, co-benefits and the global public health agenda

**N. Maria (1)**

(1) World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Dr Neira will address the implications of the evidence presented for the wider public health agenda, and in making a positive contribution to the preparations for the UNFCCC COP21 in Paris in December. This will include outlining how evidence is now being translated into a support programme to build health system resilience to climate change, focussing on the most vulnerable countries. It will also focus particularly on the opportunities for large, local health cobenefits of climate change mitigation policies, particularly in reducing the over seven million annual deaths that WHO estimates are attributable to air pollution.
# L1.5 - Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans

## K-L1.5-01

### ENSO and the Tropical Pacific in a Changing Climate

M. McPhaden (1)

(1) NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, United States of America

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle represents the strongest year to year fluctuation of the climate system on the planet. El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, and La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, arise through coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific mediated by positive feedbacks between surface wind and sea surface temperature variations. Warm and cold ENSO episodes lead to global shifts in patterns of weather variability that cause droughts, floods, heat waves and other extreme events around the world. ENSO-related natural disasters have significant consequences for society in terms of lives lost, property damage and economic vitality. Understanding how ENSO may change in the future as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is therefore a compelling question that has challenged the scientific community. This presentation will review our current understanding of ENSO dynamics, predictability, and societal impacts. It will also assess current efforts to understand how ENSO may change in the future based on analyses of the instrumental record, CMIP models, and paleo data.

## K-L1.5-02

### Indian Ocean interannual to decadal variability in the context of climate change

J. Vialard (1) ; W. Han (2) ; M. Lengaigne (3) ; A. Nidheesh, (4) ; V. Parvathi, (4) ; I. Suresh, (4)

(1) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (2) University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; (3) UPMC, Paris, France; (4) National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India

In the sixties, the Indian Ocean was the focus of the oceanographer's international community due to its dynamic response to monsoons. In the eighties, this focus shifted entirely to the neighbouring Pacific, berth of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), most powerful interannual climate mode on earth. It is only at the turn of the century that the Indian Ocean came back into fashion with the discovery of its own intrinsic interannual climate variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole) and the development of a basin-wide observing network. After reviewing interannual variability of the Indian Ocean, I will turn to the natural decadal climate variability, which has comparatively been much less described in this basin than in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. I will in particular question if this decadal variability purely arises from the neighbouring Pacific or if an intrinsic variability also exists in the Indian Ocean. The climate change signal will finally be discussed in the Indian Ocean. We will show, on the particular simple anoxic events along the west coast of India, how long-term trends and shorter-term variability can cause extreme events with important societal consequences.

## K-L1.5-03

### 21st century projections for the Pacific region

S. Power (1) ; M. Collins (2) ; K. Hennessy (3) ; E. Guilyardi (4)

(1) Bureau of Meteorology, Cawcr, Melbourne, Australia; (2) Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) SCIRO, Dickson, Australia; (4) LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC case 100, Paris, France

Here we will examine the latest scientific information available on projections for climate in the Pacific, and what this means for developing island states in the region. Particular attention will be paid to changes in surface temperature, winds, rainfall, El Niño, tropical cyclones, and ocean acidification, for different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. The continuing importance

of decadal climate variability for the region will also be highlighted. This presentation will draw upon the latest IPCC report and more recent research, including research conducted in the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Project.

## K-L1.5-04

### Southern Ocean in a changing climate

A. Thompson (1)

(1) Caltech, Los Angeles, United States of America

Recent Southern Ocean studies have suggested a slowdown of ocean carbon sequestration, an acidification of the water-masses, an overall warming and freshening in the vicinity of Antarctica, and drastic changes in sea-ice and ice-shelf distributions. Observed changes are profound: the warming rate is faster than the global average, and occurs in the deepest layers of the ocean, therefore isolating the climate signal for decades to millennial ice-shelves melting, which accelerates the discharge of the ice sheet via the ice streams, and has a direct and major impact on the global sea level rise. These important changes are directly related to the large-scale circulation of the Southern Ocean and the associated biogeochemistry. This talk aims at summarizing our current understanding of how the large-scale circulation of the Southern Ocean works, how it impacts the carbon cycle, and how interactions with the Antarctic cryosphere influence it.

## O-L1.5-01

### Future changes in the South Pacific convergence zone and its tropical cyclones using regional dynamical downscaling

M. Lengaigne (1) ; M. Bador (2) ; C. Menkes (3) ; J. Lefèvre (4) ; N. Jourdain (5) ; S. Jullien (6) ; P. Marchesiello (7) ; S. Thibaut (8) ; L. Terray (9)

(1) UPMC, Paris, France; (2) CERFACS, Climate Modelling and Global Change team, Toulouse, France, France; (3) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (4) IRD, Legos, Noumea, New Caledonia; (5) CNRS, Lgge, grenoble, France; (6) UPMC, Locean, Paris, France; (7) IRD, Legos, Toulouse, France; (8) CNRS, Legos, Toulouse, France; (9) CERFACS/CNRS, Sciences de l'Univers et CERFACS, URA1875, Toulouse, France

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest convective area of the Southern Hemisphere and has been recognized as a hot spot for climate variability (CLIVAR, 2012) as its functioning is poorly understood. Regionally, the SPCZ is the main source of rainfall in a vast majority of the Southern Pacific Island nations and the strong precipitation gradients related to the SPCZ make local hydrological conditions very sensitive to small displacement of this rain belt. The interannual variability of the SPCZ location is related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. El Niño events tend to occur accordingly with a northeastward displacement of the SPCZ, and La Niña events tend to occur with a southwestward displacement of the SPCZ. During strong El Niño events, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the equator and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure. The SPCZ location not only strongly constrains the hydrological cycle but is also the breeding ground of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South Pacific, as it combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favor the genesis of TCs. Current climate models poorly reproduce the key characteristics of the SPCZ, leading to large uncertainties in the potential evolution of the South Pacific TC activity. Hence, assessing the SPCZ and its tropical cyclones in the future climate remains a challenge.

Here, we use a dynamical downscaling approach. Using results from an ensemble of 14 CMIP3 climate models under the SRES-A2 greenhouse gas scenario, we force a regional configuration of the WRF atmospheric model. The configuration uses a two-way nesting approach to increase the spatial resolution from 1° to 1/3° in the SPCZ region. We first perform a control simulation forced by the NCEP2 reanalysis over the past 30 years, and a future
simulation based on an anomaly method (e.g. Zhao et al. 2009), where we add the mean 21st century regional SST warming pattern and atmospheric change along lateral boundaries to the NCEP2 fields.

Results show an accurate representation of the SPCZ location, its north-south displacements in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, as well as a correct TC distribution in the region. The future simulation indicates an increase of the precipitation within the SPCZ and the equatorial region, and a decrease northeast of the SPCZ mean location, in good agreement with climate models. The mean SPCZ location under future conditions presents a southernd shift in its eastern part, and generally an

increased variability of its interannual geographical position. We also find more frequent strong El Niño events in the future, with zonally oriented SPCZ. We explore the respective role of increased greenhouse gases in the domain versus the role of lateral boundaries. Large-scale conditions from lateral boundaries induce a significant (-20%) decrease of cyclones frequencies in the region. However, greenhouse gases locally counter this decrease. Overall, we do not find any significant change of cyclone frequencies in the Southwest Pacific in a warmer climate, in contrast with most recent studies, which find a decrease of cyclogenesis (-6% to -34% according to references gathered in Knutson et al. 2010).

# L2.1 - Drivers of Change and Visions of Development: Are Climate Policy and Development Compatible Goals?

## K-L2.1-01

### Energy Transition towards Two-Degree Target: The Case of China

**K. Jiang** (1)

(1) National Development and Reform, China

Abstract not communicated

## K-L2.1-02

### The Climate-Development 'Conflict': Asking the right questions

**N. Rao** (1)

(1) IIASA, Energy, Laxenburg, Austria

There is both confusion and concern regarding the impact of poverty eradication on climate change. Some equate poverty eradication with coal use, particularly in India and

China; others assume consumption from people rising out of poverty would be highly material-intensive. What if all the world's poor had refrigerators? What implications does economic development have for stabilizing climate change at 2 degrees C? Conjectures abound, but scientific research so far offers few real answers to these questions. This is in part because we haven't been asking the right questions. What stands between poverty eradication and greenhouse gas emissions is the nature of developing countries' development pathways, income distribution, patterns of energy use, technological development, and different scenarios of global cooperation on climate change mitigation. There is much yet to be learned about the interaction of these drivers. New approaches to quantifying human development and energy use shows that there have been many low-carbon development pathways in the past, and that meeting basic needs may be less carbon intensive than growth in affluence. Current trends in India reveal an exponential growth in low-carbon resources, even among the poor. While basic development aspirations cannot be thwarted, their impact on climate change is by no means outside the realm of influence by both national and international policy.

# L2.2 - New pledges (INDCs) for 2025/2030: Are they reinforcing development and consistent with a 2 oC pathway?

## K-L2.2-01

### INDCs and development objectives

**N.Dubash** (1)

(1) Centre for Policy Research, India

Abstract not communicated

## K-L2.2-02

### What science tells us about the emission levels for a 2oC pathway

P. Ciais (1) ; T. Gasser (2) ; P. Friedlingstein (3) ; GP. Peters (4); J. Rogelj (5)

(1) IPSL, LSce, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway; (5) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Limiting global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels will require sustained and important efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance and maintain sinks of carbon dioxide in the land-use sector. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions have continued to grow at an average rate of 2.5% per year over the past decade. Even at today's annual emission levels, the cumulative CO2 emission quota in line with staying below 2°C would be exhausted in less than 30 years. We will examine how pledges of largest emitting countries to reduce emissions, or maintain sinks in the land-use sector are consistent with a trajectory enabling not to breach the international agreed 2°C temperature limit. In particular, we examine how forest carbon sinks in the US, Canada, Russia, China and the EU, as well as reduced deforestation in tropical countries, can help efforts to attenuate near-

term climate change. A specific attention will also be given to the contribution of nations to historical radiative forcing and climate change, including long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived forcers such as CH4 and aerosols, of which the latter can have a climate cooling or warming effect.

## K-L2.2-03

### Assessment of intended nationally determined contributions to a 2015 international climate agreement

**M. Den Elzen** (1) ; N. Höhne (2)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) New Climate Institute, Cologne, Germany

One of the most fundamental questions in the preparation of a new international climate agreement is whether countries' proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious compared to their peers. Methodologies to rate countries' climate action often rate different things and therefore come to different conclusions (Surminski and Williamson, 2014).

From the variety of methods that have been applied in the past to rate the ambition of countries climate action proposals, we distinguish two main strands, which are described here as black and white for illustration, acknowledging that they overlap in practice. Both relate to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities:

* Moral obligation: From this viewpoint, countries have a moral obligation to reduce their emissions. This moral obligation can be measured in a simple way, e.g. for developed countries as the sustained emission reduction
* **Technical necessity:** The starting point of this viewpoint is whether the proposal is in line with what is technically necessary from now on, irrespective of the moral obligation. This could be judged by whether the countries' proposal is in line with its contribution in globally cost effective model pathways (according to scenarios such as those included in the IPCC AR5 scenario database (Clarke et al., 2014) and model comparison studies, like LIMITS (Tavoni et al., 2015)), leverages all mitigation potential or covers all policies that the country's peers undertake. This strand relates more the "common" element of the agreed principle.

The two strands may lead to fundamentally different outcomes. A developing country for example may have limited moral obligation, but significantly more mitigation potential, as developing countries are characterized by higher energy and carbon intensities, have rapidly rising baseline emissions and a high share of new infrastructure (Clarke et al., 2014). For a developed country it may be the other way around, it may have a very high moral obligation, but may have technical difficulty to reduce domestic emissions in the same order of magnitude without retiring old infrastructure before the end of its life ("carbon lock in" or "stranded assets").

The methods are applied illustratively to the recent post-2020 climate proposals by the USA, China and the EU. The results differ substantially per method, which confirms that a comprehensive ambition assessment is necessary to provide the full picture.

### References:

Clarke L, Jiang K, Akimoto K, et al. (2014) Assessing Transformation Pathways. In Edenhofer O, et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge, UK.

Höhne N, den Elzen MGJ, Escalante D (2014) Regional greenhouse gas mitigation targets based on equity principles: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy 14:122-147.

Surminski S, Williamson A (2014) Policy Indexes as Tools for Decision Makers: The Case of Climate Policy. Global Policy 5:275-285.

Tavoni M, Kriegler E, Riahi K, et al. (2015) Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Clim. Change 5, pp. 119-126.

## K-L2.2-04

### Integrating development and climate policy in South Africa

#### T. Caetano (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

South Africa's approach to its INDC will very likely be framed by development and climate. The formal process of consultation by government has yet to take place, but we know that the National Development Plan (NDP) is as important as South Africa's climate policy. Some research we have undertaken at the Energy Research Centre (ERC) illustrates the challenges of seeking a substantial reduction in poverty, inequality and emissions.

The key question facing the mitigation community in South Africa is the pace with which the country can decarbonize the energy sector, which currently accounts for majority of total emissions, without undermining development imperatives – the NDP places reduction of poverty and inequality at the top of a list of multiple priorities.

The current structure of the South African economy has

resulted in sub-optimal environmental (high carbon intensity) and social (high Gini-coefficient and low HDI) outcomes. High levels of poverty and inequality are likely to be exacerbated substantially by climate change impacts in the future, while a reliance on energy- and capital-intensive, and low-labour-absorbing sectors means that even with a sophisticated tax and redistribution system, there are simply too few employed and skilled citizens in the economy to drive improvements in living standards and key socio-economic indicators for majority of the population. Inclusive growth is a necessary condition for attaining better socio-economic outcomes in the future, but the type of growth that South Africa has experienced in the past few decades has not been sufficient.

A key question then is the extent to which a structural change in the economy can meet both mitigation and development objectives. Growth in sectors that are labour-intensive, absorb low- and un-skilled workers and are low carbon need to be incentivized if South Africa is going to move forward with climate compatible growth and development.

The domestic policy system is characterized, however, by lock-in and path dependency. While consultations on the INDC are ongoing, ERC research suggests that what is crucial is an understanding how a just transition over the next decades from an inequitable and carbon intensive economy to a more equitable and low carbon economy can be achieved. South Africa's national climate policy, as indicated in 2009, is that its emissions will follow a 'peak, plateau and decline' trajectory to 2050. The NDP includes an environmental chapter that talks to "an equitable transition to a low-carbon economy", yet this remains to be fully integrated with chapters on economy, employment and infrastructure. ERC research has provided initial analysis on what would be required, either with a more skilled work force or possibly a different structure of the economy, to move toward a successful integration of development and climate policy.

## K-L2.2-05

### The economic and competitiveness dimensions of the Draft Chilean INDC

#### A. Rudnick (1)

(1) MAPS Programme, Latin America, Santiago, Chile

Chile's national contribution to mitigation is based on a commitment to reducing greenhouse gases for the post-2020 period. It is based on the sectorial analyses and the mitigation scenarios developed in 2013-2014 with MAPS Chile (Phase 2), the results of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and additional information provided by the Ministries of Environment, Energy, Agriculture and the Treasury.

Chile aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions while decreasing poverty and inequality as well as continue advancing toward sustainable, competitive, inclusive and low-carbon development. To confront these challenges successfully, the country should direct all its efforts to decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions.

Draft Intended Nationally Determined Contribution on Mitigation

Chile analyzed a subset of three forms of contribution for the whole economy, namely: i) carbon intensity target, ii) a deviation below business as usual scenario specified ex ante, and iii) trajectories. From a review of existing literature and considering the national experience with the Copenhagen pledge, Chile has chosen to report its contribution for the post-2020 period in the form of emissions intensity. Chile's contribution will allow the country to reach high levels of economy-wide mitigation. Methodologically, it takes two components into account: a) a carbon intensity target, expressed in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic development (GDP) which includes all sectors where mitigation is possible in Chile except for forestry; and b) a separate target for forestry. t

The draft INDC was submitted to a national consultation process, were two options of carbon intensity target were consulted.

Option A: Chile is committed to reducing its CO2eq emissions per GDP unit by 30-35% below their 2007 levels by 2025. Chile is also committed to reducing its CO2eq
emissions per GDP unit by 40-45% below their 2007 levels by 2030.

Option B: Chile is committed to reducing its CO2eq emissions per GDP unit by 25-30% below their 2007 levels by 2025. Chile is also committed to reducing its CO2eq emissions per GDP unit by 35-40% below their 2007 levels by 2030.

Figure 1: Upper value of Option A expressed in emissions (excluding LULUCF) per unit of GDP

Source: Draft INDC. Government of Chile. 2015.

In addition, for the forestry sector Chile has proposed restoring about 100,000 hectares of degraded land (forestation) with its own resources investing an estimated US$250 million, reaching an area of at least 100,000 hectares of managed native forest by 2035.

National perspective

Chile already has concrete and ambitious goals and policies, and has consistent energy policies to move towards a clean, sustainable matrix (Law on renewable energy, energy efficiency targets, carbon tax). Emission mitigation is seen as an opportunity to low-carbon development with multiple benefits such as job creation, improved population health, competitiveness and others.

The mitigation scenarios considered for the draft INDC were formulated through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (in Phase 2 of MAPS-Chile) for two macroeconomic variables: increase in the value of GDP

and increased employment. The values presented in the table below correspond to percentage deviations from the baseline from 2013 to 2030. The three scenarios represent the mitigation range included in Option A and Option B of the draft INDC.

<table><caption>Table 1: Macro economic effects of mitigation options</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenario</th><th>GDP</th><th>Employment</th><th>CO2eq Emissions</th></tr><tr><th>2030</th><th>2030</th><th>2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>80/20 (Lower value of Option B)</td><td>1,2%</td><td>0,0%</td><td>-18,8%</td></tr><tr><td>Medio (Upper value of Option B and lower value of Option A)</td><td>6,7%</td><td>5,5%</td><td>-23,4%</td></tr><tr><td>Alto (Upper value of Option A)</td><td>7,4%</td><td>6,3%</td><td>-26,2%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: MAPS Chile results (Phase 2).

According to the GDP growth rate, the population projections, and the mitigation measures and policy choices considered in the three mitigation scenarios, the macroeconomic modeling indicates that high mitigation scenario is not only the most ambitious in terms of emission reduction, but also verifies the largest increases in GDP and employment levels to 2030.

# L2.3 - Climatic Variability and the Social and Human Dimensions of Vulnerability

## K-L2.3-01

### Extremes of climate variability and impacts on society: The drought and water crisis of 2014-15 in Southeastern Brazil

**J. Marengo (1)**

(1) CEMADEN, San Paolo, Brazil

Deficient rainy season during the austral summers of 2013-14 and 2014-15 over most of southeastern Brazil affected the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA)-South America's largest metropolis, home to 20 million people and where 10% of Brazilians live and a third of GDP is produced. Together with high temperatures throughout 2014 and up to January 2015 and a subsequent increase in water demand, the persistent lack of rainfall determined a drought situation, impacting on the use of water for human consumption, hydropower, as well as water for agriculture, creating an acute "water crisis" situation. In the last 60 years, some extreme dry events have impacted Southeastern Brazil, including the 1953-54 episode and the 2000-2001 as the most intense. Here we intend to assess how extraordinarily the recent extreme drought that started in summer by the end of 2013, persisted throughout 2014 and continued up to January 2015 was, and to analyze some of the main factors contributing to it.

The hydropower reservoirs-which account for around 70% of the country's entire hydroelectric power generation- and the rivers feeding the Cantareira reservoir system, which provides almost half of the city of São Paulo's water, were almost dry by the end of 2013. The severe drought of the summer 2014-2015 was associated with a wide, intense and very persistent high-pressure area placed from surface to the upper troposphere. The anticyclonic system that dominates the atmospheric circulation over eastern South America extended from the sea level to the upper troposphere inhibiting the distinctive seasonal convective activity. This anticyclone lasted 45 days, extremely rare in terms of duration and never previously recorded for that region.

The region of Cantareira region experienced the most severe drought during the summer of 2014, and this year corresponds to the warmest year in the region since 1962. Other drought years, as in 1971 and 2001 were

also among the six warmest years during that period. Therefore, the worse water crisis in Sao Paulo during the warmest year during the last 52 years is a relevant example of climate change risk due to rising temperatures due to anthropogenic influences.

However, origins of the current water crisis go beyond the rainfall deficiency, to include an array of interconnected factors: the city's surging population growth in the 20th century; a chronically leaky system that spills vast amounts of water before it can reach homes; and the destruction of surrounding forests and wetlands that have historically soaked up rain and released it slowly into reservoirs. Rainfall over the Cantareira system has been decreasing during the last decades and the levels in 2014 were the lowest since 1940. Longer-term planning by regional governments has fallen short, and many residents are already enduring sporadic water cutoffs, some going days without it. SABESP, the state utility company has reduced its extraction from the reservoir by a third, cut its pump pressure at night, and offered discounts to customers who reduce their consumption. Some parts of the city are relying on water trucks to maintain their supply.

## K-L2.3-02

### Managing multifunctionality for Climate Smart Landscapes

**C. Mbow (1)**

(1) Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, Faculté des sciences et techniques, Dakar-Senegal, Senegal

This presentation addresses the importance of managing trade-offs for sustainability in the face of climate change and how in particular the integrated landscape approach could be the one way to achieve many climate change related objectives. The presentation suggests an analytics for harnessing the climate smart landscape approach to the emerging climate challenges using some examples of practices that are suited to different contexts. From the historical footprints of the co-evolution between policy and science in the aim of achieving integrated solutions to climate/environmental crisis, we suggest some avenues on how to use landscape management principles in the design and the implementation of multiple goals; and what are the key barriers.
K-L2.3-03

Exploring the human dimension of urban
resilience: perspectives from the Pacific
region

D. Mcevoy (1)

(1) RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

Cities in the Pacific region, which in many instances are already vulnerable to a range of natural hazard and weather-related events, will be faced by a multitude of resilience challenges in the future as a consequence of the interactions between a changing climate and rapid urbanization processes. These challenges are further complicated in the Pacific by land tenure arrangements,

with tensions between municipal and customary land ownership often commonplace. Drawing from ongoing research activity as part of UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative, the presentation will explore the human dimension of climate vulnerability in the capital cities of Honiara (Solomon Islands) and Port Vila (Vanuatu). Both these case studies have been affected by recent weather-related disasters as evidenced by the Honiara floods in 2014 and the impact of Cyclone Pam on Port Vila in 2015. Discussion of the human dimension of urban resilience will not only address the current and future hazard component but also how changing levels of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity will affect the resilience of the urban system (and its component parts). Lessons learnt from this analysis have the potential to positively influence the development of adaptation pathways and the enhancement of local resilience strengthening activity.

## L2.4 - Early Warning for Thresholds and Tipping Points in the Earth System

K-L2.4-01

### Early warning of climate tipping points

T. Lenton (1)

(1) university of exeter, exeter, united Kingdom

A 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly non-linear response in the internal dynamics of a system, qualitatively changing its future state. Large-scale 'tipping elements' have been identified in the Earth's climate system that may pass a tipping point under human-induced global change this century. At the smaller scale of ecosystems, some tipping points have already been observed, and more are anticipated in future. Our capacity to forecast such abrupt, non-linear changes has historically been poor. However, much excitement has recently been generated by the theory that some approaching tipping points carry generic early warning signals. I will critically examine the prospects for gaining early warning of approaching tipping points. Promising methods are based on detecting 'critical slowing down' in the rate a system recovers from small perturbations, and on accompanying changes in the statistical distribution of its behaviour. I will show examples of early warning signals for damaging hysteresis and environmental changes, and in models being gradually forced past physical climate tipping points. I will also discuss the conditions under which the methods fail. Finally, I will show an example of pronounced slowing down in observational climate data, for North Pacific sea surface temperatures, and explore the implications for well-known marine ecosystem 'regime shifts'.

K-L2.4-02

### Are there tipping points in terrestrial ecosystems?

M. Hirota (1)

(1) Federal University of Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Terrestrial ecosystems have been undergoing unprecedented climate and human-induced disturbances, which are likely to push these systems towards changes in their physiognomies, structure, and functioning. It has been hypothesized that these new configurations may be alternative regimes of systems comprising vegetation-climate-disturbance interactions. Thus, one way of explaining the dynamics of ecosystems in transition may be the theory of multi-stability and concepts such as resilience, hysteresis and tipping points. However, whether such multiple regimes indeed exist in climate-vegetation-disturbance systems and whether we can identify and quantify tipping points of such systems still remain largely unclear due to various reasons such as the role of heterogeneity and multi-scale processes in amplifying climate change and environmental change. This highlights the need to inter-multidisciplinary teams, which investigate such questions and help addressing management practices and preserving ecosystem services for future adaptation policies.

Acknowledgements:

This work is a contribution from the Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climate Change funded by CNPq Grant Number 573797/2008-0 and FAPESP Grant Number 2008/57719-9, and from a proposal funded by Microsoft-FAPESP grant number 13/50169-1.

K-L2.4-03

### Approaching Tipping Points: context, anticipation and community-based monitoring

M. Nuttall (1)

(1) University of Alberta, Department of anthropology, Alberta, Canada

From the Arctic to the topics, Prairie and steppeland environments to high mountain areas, deltaic regions and low-lying ecosystems, people are observing and experiencing significant environmental shifts. However, it does not necessarily follow that they think about climate change as the most pressing issue affecting their lives. In this presentation, I discuss some aspects of how to understand the consequences of climate change, as well as identifying tipping points and thresholds, in a broader context. Rapid social, economic and demographic change, resource management and resource development, quota systems, trade barriers and conservation policies, among many things, have significant implications for human security and livelihoods. In many cases, climate change merely magnifies existing societal, political, economic, legal, institutional and other challenges that people experience in their everyday lives. In the far north of Greenland, for example, while the thinning sea ice and melting glaciers are perceived as troubling and worrying, local people see economic opportunities for their communities in the form of emerging halibut fisheries. Yet, although dramatic changes in climate require people to respond in particular ways, transformations in global markets that affect small-scale fisheries often have greater consequences. And while the disappearance of sea ice and glacial retreat may indicate approaching tipping points, irreversible social, cultural and economic change was precipitated in the 1980s by environmentalist opposition to seal hunting, while the prospect of oil development and mining mean different kinds of tipping points in the near future. As they reflect on a changing climate, local people do so from the position of living through considerable social and economic transformation that may have nothing to do with environmental change.

In this presentation, I consider the above and then focus on two things. First, building on earlier work on tipping points and anticipatory knowledge, I consider anticipation; how people think about the world around them, how they orient themselves and live toward the future, and how they create and enact change within a world that is also undergoing a constant process of becoming and being remade. I discuss how a focus on anticipation in local settings would give us a greater understanding of a diversity of approaches to precaution, pre-emption and preparedness. Given the
challenges (as well as opportunities) that climate change brings to environment and society, understanding how anticipation is inherent in everyday life and implicit in social relations and cultural practices, and how aspects of those relations and practices can emerge from anticipation, is a way to understand successful local strategies of adaptation, the nature of resilience and how people prepare themselves for uncertain futures. Second, I discuss some anthropological methods and prospects for identifying and gaining early warning of tipping points through reflection on collaborative and participatory-based community research. By way of example, I draw on an interdisciplinary project in the High Arctic environment of northern Greenland (the EU-funded ICE-ARC project) which is working with communities to help them prepare for and negotiate change in the future. Central to this project is community-based monitoring, a process that not only seeks to identify early warnings of tipping points, but something that builds local research capacity and puts in place a local observing system. This will help improve climate predictions for understanding the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and Arctic societies and enable communities to build capacity towards ensuring sustainable livelihoods.

## K-L2.4-04

### Can we avoid the next tipping in Antarctica?

R. Winkelmann (1)

(1) PIK Potsdam, –, Germany

Sea-level rise is a given consequence of anthropogenic climate change. How much and how fast it is going to rise will depend critically on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet which stores water equivalent to more than 50 meters of global sea-level rise. Most of West Antarctica's marine ice sheet lies on an inland-sloping bed and is thereby prone to an instability mechanism, the so-called marine ice sheet instability. Recent observations suggest that the grounding line has probably already transgressed into the unstable regime in part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to warm water intrusion into the shelf cavities. Similar topographic configurations are found in large parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet which holds marine ice equivalent to 19 meters of global sea-level rise, more than five times as much as West Antarctica. For Wilkes basin in East Antarctica, it has been shown that removing a specific coastal ice volume, a so-called ice plug, can destabilize the entire basin, leading to self-sustained ice discharge and long-term sea-level rise of several meters. Here, we will explore the regions which might be subject to the marine ice-sheet instability, the processes potentially triggering it, and the consequences and implications for future sea-level rise.

## K-L2.4-05

### Effects of climate change and other driver of global changes on biodiversity

C. Bellard (1)

(1) Université Paris Sud, Paris, France

Current threats have greatly accelerated the rate at which extinctions occur. Climate change is expected to become one of the most important threat in the future (Bellard et al. 2012). In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk. The combined impacts of multiple threats are also diminishing the capacity of natural systems to cope with the effects of these changes. Yet, over the past decade, most studies have assessed the future spatial distribution of these threats individually. This approach can be ineffective and ecologically misleading, because cumulative effect of different threats are not considered. Most of the conservation measures that are based on such studies consider a subset of threats, which may be of little benefit if other threats remain unaddressed. In addition, the combined impacts of different threats might be larger than the cumulative effect of each threat on biodiversity. Because little is known about the possible existence of interacting effects, quantifying the magnitude of potential synergies should become a priority.

Here, we propose to use two case studies at a global scale: biodiversity hotspot (Bellard et al. 2014), and USA to illustrate the need to consider multiple interactions between climate change and other threats. For instance, we will examine the effect of climate change including sea-level rise and land use changes on biodiversity hotspot. We will discuss congruence between threats, species vulnerability and protected areas through the biodiversity hotspot. We will also discuss the potential impact of future interaction of climate change, land use changes, and invasive species for 196 endemic species across USA (Bellard et al., submitted). To this aim, we took into account the spatial distribution of biodiversity vulnerable to these threats. In particular, we found high cumulative threat values (>2 threats) aggregated over the eastern part of the USA, with lower values in the central and western parts. Cumulative impact analyses also suggested that the return on investments for conservation purposes may be low when high cumulative threat areas with low species diversity require protection from many threats (e.g., Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa states). These analyses provide a useful means of identifying where conservation could be reduced by 20-30% if less efficient producers would adopt the best practices of their peers, in the same production system and region. Technologies and practices that help reduce emissions exist but are not yet widely used. Those that improve efficiency and plant and animal health also have productivity co-benefits. In addition, the agriculture sector could benefit from carbon offset programs that represent potential additional income. Climate change matters to the agriculture sector. Direct impacts on production range from extreme climatic events, droughts and floods, to thermal stress and reduced yields. A large proportion of low income farmers are highly exposed to climate change. Forward-looking scenarios of plausible agricultural sector developments were developed

Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thüller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2012). Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15(4), 365-377.
doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x

Bellard, C., Leclerc, C., Leroy, B., Bakkenes, M., Veloz, S., Thüller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2014). Vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to global change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23(12), 1376-1386. doi:10.1111/geb.12228

Bellard, C., Leclerc, C., & Courchamp, F. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA submitted

## L2.5 - Food and water security under climate change

### K-L2.5-01

#### Future landscapes of food supply and demand and implications for emissions

JF. Soussana (1)

(1) Inra, Paris, France

Climate change and the rise in atmospheric CO2 will reorganize food systems and alter agricultural productivity, with impacts on food security, land use and greenhouse gas emissions. Food security is still an issue for about 795 million undernourished people, mostly located in the least developed countries of the planet. The agriculture sector is already affected by climate change, with significant global negative impacts on wheat and maize yields being observed over the last decades. The global food systems would be severely threatened under

high end global warming scenarios. The agriculture, forestry and land use sector contributes to 24% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with livestock alone estimated to contribute about 14.5% of total human induced emissions when a supply chain approach is considered. Globally, GHG emissions from agriculture could be reduced by 20-30% if less efficient producers would adopt the best practices of their peers, in the same production system and region. Technologies and practices that help reduce emissions exist but are not yet widely used. Those that improve efficiency and plant and animal health also have productivity co-benefits. In addition, the agriculture sector could benefit from carbon offset programs that represent potential additional income. Climate change matters to the agriculture sector. Direct impacts on production range from extreme climatic events, droughts and floods, to thermal stress and reduced yields. A large proportion of low income farmers are highly exposed to climate change. Forward-looking scenarios of plausible agricultural sector developments were developed
based on the new IPCC scenario framework. The results in terms of agricultural market developments, land and water use, and GHG emissions going until 2050 highlight the role that demand driven and supply driven changes in the sector could play both for greenhouse gas mitigation and for adaptation to climate change.

## K-L2.5-02

### Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

J. Elliott (1)

(1) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America

The global food system has seen increased volatility in recent years, with spiking food prices blamed for civil unrest on several continents. Rising prices for global commodity products like soy, meat and palm are increasingly driving deforestation around the globe, and with agriculture increasingly interconnected to global food and energy markets, weather-related risk and supply-side shocks have become a key issue or concern for governments and businesses alike.

Using archives from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison (ISI-MIP), we look first at the impacts of 65 years of continental and global extreme events using observation-driven models and data. We identify the most severe historical events in caloric terms at national to global scales and evaluate the ability of models and model ensembles to identify weather-induced extreme years. Correctly assess the magnitude of large-scale extreme events, reproduce historical country-level variability, and reproduce spatial patterns of losses under extreme drought.

We next consider global crop models driven with large ensembles of climate model output (both under historical forcing and with future scenarios) to characterize present day risk and the extent of non-stationary risk in global crop production. We find increasing, and in many cases accelerating risk, of extreme global loss events even in scenarios with little to no climate-induced long-term mean changes. In some cases, one-year global-scale production loss events that would have recently been called 1-in-100 year events are estimated to occur every 30 years by mid-century, and every 10-20 years by end-of-century. We discuss some regional and global protective measures that might be introduced, including increased trade, stock-hoarding, crop breeding, and improved forecasts, monitoring, and modeling.

## K-L2.5-03

### Future landscapes of crop water supply and demand

T. Oki (1)

(1) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

The real hydrological cycles on the Earth are not natural anymore. Humans are now driving changes in atmospheric processes through emission of green-house gases and land cover change directly and indirectly. Global mean temperature is projected to rise approximately proportional to the cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (ARS, IPCC WGII). Temperature rise itself will have direct impacts on the availability of water resources through changing flow regimes in snow-dominant or glacier-effluent river basins, and it will also be associated with sea level rise because thermal expansion is one of the major causes of observed and projected sea level rises. Further, climate change is projected to alter hydrological cycles: changing temporal and geographical patterns of hydrological components, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and ground water recharge, and particularly in their extremes. Consequently, the frequency of floods and/or droughts is projected to increase some parts of the world.

However, as articulated in the AR5 of IPCC WGII, "Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems", increasing frequency of natural hazards, such as torrential rainfall or long-lasting heat wave, alone will not cause damages on human and natural systems, and both climate and social changes are relevant for

planning sustainable development in the future.

ARS (WGII) also says "Significant co-benefits, synergies, and tradeoffs exist between mitigation and adaptation and among different adaptation responses; interactions occur both within and across regions". Mitigation and/or adaptation actions should not be planned in an isolated manner, but should be integrated into wider frameworks, such as integrated water resources management and sustainable development. It would preferably be integrated into a risk management framework assessing and managing possible global risks, and ultimately pursue increasing human well-beings.

These issues will be discussed with reviews of the latest estimates of water demand and supply in the future.

## K-L2.5-04

### Planetary opportunities in crop water management: Potential to outweigh cropland expansion

J. Jägermeyr (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

A major humanitarian challenge for the 21st century is to feed the growing world population in face of climate change and sustainability boundaries. However, as the planetary boundaries for freshwater and land use are being approached rapidly, there is little potential for additional cropland approximation or irrigation water diversion. In addition, competition between food production, bioenergy plantations and biodiversity conservation increases pressure on the considerable yield gaps remain in many world regions and various water conservancy methods proved instrumental to boost yields in a sustainable way. In the here presented modeling study we investigate, at global scale, to what degree smart on-farm crop water management might contribute to a sustainable global yield increase. We do this under current and projected future climate conditions and under the constraint of environmental flow requirements to represent the planetary boundaries (14-18% global production increase). Large-scale irrigation transitions are however very expensive. Moreover, affordable low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands can increase yields to a similar extent. A simulated global ~15% yield increase from a low-intensity water management scenario could outweigh, i.e. possibly avoid, an estimated 120 Mha of cropland expansion under current climatic conditions. A maximum-intensity water management scenario shows the potential to increase global yields by more than 35% without expansion or withdrawing additional irrigation water. Climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but as we show such adaptation opportunities have the potential to mitigate or compensate these impacts in many countries. Overall, proper water management (sustainably maximizing on-farm water use efficiency) can substantially increase global crop yields and at the same time reduce rates of land cover conversion.
**D. Lobell (1)**

(1) Stanford University, Department of environmental earth system science, Stanford, United States of America

This talk will review the evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation in reducing climate change impacts in different countries. Much of the model-based evidence is relatively weak, not only in that it relies on models, but that it depends on strong assumptions about what farmers would do in the absence of climate change. A few observational studies have been published in recent years, which will also be reviewed. Overall, the challenge of adapting to climate change is formidable, and rapid learning will be essential for achieving as much reduction in impacts as possible.

**J. Huang (1)**

(1) Chinese academy of sciences, Center for chinese agricultural policy, Beijing, China

Growing evidence indicates that climate change has aggravated the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the past and will future aggravated in the future. Overcoming the challenge of increasing extreme weather events, particularly drought and flood, has captured much attention in many developing countries. In China, the annual average crop area suffering from serious drought and flood has also increased in recent decades. Key issues to be discussed in this presentation include: how farmers have responded or adapted to the extreme weather events? What are major measures that have been taken by farmers when they face serious drought and flood? How effectiveness of these measures in mitigating the risk resulted from the extreme weather events? How policy can facilitate farmers to better adapt to the rising intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the future? Based on primary data from a large-scale field survey in China, the results show that when faced with severe drought or flood, farmers do take various measures to mitigate the climate risk. Most measures taken by farmers are related to investment in and management of water used in agricultural production. The local irrigation infrastructure, policy supports and early warning information services as well as farmers' social capital have facilitated farmers to take the adaptive responses. In addition, existing village, household and plot characteristics also significantly further analysis shows that the adaptation through farmers' responses significantly reduce crop yield loss and risk of crop yield. The presentation concludes with several policy implications.

# L3.1 - Socio-economics and Instruments for Transforming the Energy Sector: Economic Policy Tools for Mitigation of Energy-related GHG Emissions

**M. Grubb (1)**

(1) University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom

This presentation will summarise key structural lessons from quarter of a century's debate and experience in seeking to foster low carbon energy transitions, offering a new framework to explain how climate and energy challenges can be tackled more effectively whilst containing energy bills. It will explain three domains of socioeconomic processes each of which involves different actors and decisionmaking characteristics. These three domains operate at different scales of time and social entities and rest on different theoretical foundations. The unique characteristic of energy and climate change is that the issues raised span all three domains in approximately equal measure. The policy implication is the need for three distinct pillars of action, each being approximately equally important.

Drawing on the book *Planetary Economics*, co-authored with Professors Hourcade and Neuhoff, the presentation will explain from these foundations how the different pillars are complementary and why only packages spanning all three are credible, economically efficient and environmentally effective - and hence, politically stable.

**B. Pizer (1)**

(1) Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Department of economics, Duke, United States of America

Carbon markets are substantial and expanding. There are many lessons from experience over the past 10 years: fewer free allowances, careful moderation of low and high prices, and a recognition that trading systems require adjustments that have consequences for market participants and market confidence. Moreover, the emerging international architecture features separate emissions trading systems serving distinct jurisdictions.

These programs are complemented by a variety of other types of policies alongside the carbon markets. This architecture sits in sharp contrast to the integrated global trading architecture envisioned 15 years ago by the designers of the Kyoto Protocol and raises a suite of new questions. In this new architecture, jurisdictions with emissions trading have to decide how, whether, and when to link with one another, and policy makers oversee carbon markets must confront how to measure the comparability of efforts among markets and the comparability of markets to a variety of other policy approaches.

An important recent development is the 2014 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed rules to regulate fossil fuel power plants under existing U.S. law. Final rules are expected this summer. The rules' key features include state-by-state emissions rate targets and considerable flexibility for the states to achieve them. This flexibility includes the states' choice to implement the targets through traditional regulation or the use of carbon markets. If implemented through carbon markets, states face additional questions about carbon market design. Different strategies for emissions reductions and regulation design will have important near-term consequences, in terms of the cost of electricity generation and market prices, and important long-term consequences, in terms of retirements and new investments. These consequences can vary significantly from region to region and from stakeholder to stakeholder.

The long-term consequences are particularly important in terms of the legacy for future policies. If current regulations turn out to be inadequate to address future mitigation goals, debate could begin again over federal legislative options, namely, a tightening of the existing program, an explicit national trading program, emissions taxes, or other alternatives to reduce emissions such as renewable or clean electricity goal. In this event, it will be important to understand how responses to the current proposed regulation may both affect the ability of the electricity industry to respond cost effectively to any new policies in the future as well as the distribution of future costs across stakeholders.
K-L3.1-03

# Carbon Pricing Future in China

J. Kejun (1)

(1) Energy Research Institute, National development and
reform commission, Beijing, China

A global 2 Degree temperature increase was identified as a political target for climate change. The newly published IPCC AR5 presents a lot of research on scenarios, policies for the 2 degree target. Carbon pricing is one of the key policy options for CO2 emission mitigation. In China, CO2 emissions trading was adopted as a policy for China's low carbon development. The emission trading was launched in 2007 and is now in operation. An implementation of carbon tax in China was widely discussed, and now is under decision making process in government. This presentation summarizes the analysis of a carbon tax based on IPAC model simulation, and discusses the choice between carbon tax or emission trading in China. In the modeling analysis, in order to support the global 2 degree target, CO2 emissions in China have to reach peak before 2025 and then start deep cut on CO2 emissions. In IPAC modeling analysis, feasibility analysis for this emission scenario was developed. By using this detailed analysis modeling tool, it is feasible for China to peak CO2 emissions before 2025, and start deep cut after that, reaching more than 70% cut by 2050 compared with that in 2020. In the analysis, various policies were considered, including energy efficiency improvement, fuel switching in end use sectors, low carbon power generation, land use mitigation, carbon pricing etc. Based on China's policy making regime, these policies could be implemented in different government agencies according to their functions. There has been a significant progress on energy efficiency improvement since 2005 when China started the energy conservation program as a national fundamental strategy. And in recent years, renewable energy development in China is also playing the main role in the world, accounting for nearly one third of the global production capacity for renewable energy added per year.

However, we do need to consider an economic method for GHG mitigation in China. We have started analysis on carbon tax and emission trading from 2005, by now ETS is undergoing, and a carbon tax was proposed to government. In the modeling analysis, it is found that carbon pricing has significant effects on CO2 emissions mitigation to reach the global 2 degree target, and could be implemented in China. By reviewing the progress of ETS in China, we have discussed the advantages and disadvantages of both carbon tax and ETS, and suggested the future pattern for carbon pricing in China. Carbon tax is strongly recommended as a national policy for GHG mitigation. A system to combine carbon tax and ETS in China is also proposed.

K-L3.1-04

# India's Energy and Climate Debate: Uncertainties in Future Emissions and the Scope for Co-benefits

N. Dubash (1)

(1) Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India

India occupies a dual position in global climate debates. As a large and rapidly growing economy, India's future energy and emissions trajectory holds considerable importance for global efforts to address climate change. On the other hand, India starts from a very low base of energy use and emissions on a per capita basis, illustrating the considerable future energy needs required if India is to meet the development needs of Indian citizens.

This duality frames Indian climate and energy policy. Given the low levels of current energy usage, poor quality of infrastructure and the need to provide jobs for large numbers of people entering the workforce, the only acceptable starting point from a domestic point of view is India's energy needs, rather than carbon limitations. However, Indian policy formulation is able to consider climate impacts through explicit consideration of 'co-benefits' of alternative development policies. Hence, understanding and operationalising co-benefits is an important theme in Indian energy and climate policy.

This study reviews recent national energy and climate modelling studies to assess the projected range of future

emissions, energy demand patterns and energy supply futures. What emerges is a wide variation in projected business as usual futures. Policy scenarios included are a carbon tax, and bottom up demand and supply mix scenarios, leading to a relatively modest deviation from reference cases until 2030.

Key results include: a projected doubling or tripling of carbon dioxide emissions, and an increase in coal use by 2.5-3 times, despite considerably lower in renewable energy use. However, these projections assume continued high GDP growth rates until 2030, which partially drive these results.

Despite the importance of co-benefits, the studies do not systematically assess the co-benefits arising from various climate policies. However, a review of global integrated assessment models applied to South Asia do suggest that air pollution and energy security co-benefits in particular can be considerable.

Looking to the future, the co-benefits framing of India's climate policy is likely to result in sector by sector policy formulation, driven primarily by sustainable development and energy security concerns, with some attention to climate benefits. The co-benefits analysis suggests that the climate gains in terms of 'bending the curve' could be substantial. In order to assess the magnitude of potential reductions in CO2 will require more careful attention to sectoral scenario construction in future model runs.

K-L3.1-05

# Mitigation of Energy-related GHG Emissions in Brazil

E. La Rovere (1)

(1) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Brazil is one of the largest developing economies in the world, its long-run developmental pathway needs to face huge challenges, such as poverty eradication, reduction of inequalities, food security, access to energy and water, public security, technological innovation and competitiveness. Climate change will have to be added to this list, due both to the country high vulnerability to climate change and to its important contribution to global GHG emissions. In this context, this presentation summarizes an analysis of the social and economic implications of different GHG emission mitigation scenarios for Brazil.

Brazilian voluntary commitment to reduce emissions until 2020 should be reached thanks to the sharp cut on Amazon deforestation achieved since 2004. As the economy grows, emissions related to the combustion of fossil fuels for energy production and consumption have been increasing significantly and are expected to become the dominant source of GHG emissions over the next decade. Mitigation policies and measures, beyond those included in governmental plans, have been identified and grouped in scenarios up to 2030, according to expert judgement on assumptions about its economic and political feasibility, resulting in different penetration rates of technological and management innovations.

Comparative analysis of the scenario results has allowed for highlighting economic (GDP, inflation, trade balance, industrial competitiveness) and social (employment, income distribution, low income household consumption patterns) implications of lower carbon pathways in Brazil. These results provide new insights as an input to the national debate on the strategy to curb down country's GHG emissions up to 2030.

In the past, different policy tools have been used in Brazil to foster the development of renewable energy in Brazil, including: a mandatory blending of ethanol to gasoline; soft loans to increase ethanol production; fiscal exemptions for planted forests of fast growing species such as eucalyptus and pinus, used for charcoal manufacturing; tendering of hydropower plants to be built through public/private partnerships; feed-in tariffs for power generation from wind farms, solar PV and biomass; among others. These instruments have enabled Brazil to reach a level of 45% of renewable energy in total energy supply in 2010, against a world average of 13%.

Now, different command/control and economic instruments may be used to promote a transition to a even lower carbon energy system: the creation of domestic
carbon allowance market is under study by governmental bodies; and the possibility of increasing fossil fuel prices by a variety of taxation schemes is also considered.

The study findings highlight that if command and control measures coupled to microeconomic policies are able to overcome the barriers to mitigation options, decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions would be possible: additional mitigation scenarios, on the top of existing governmental plans, might increase GDP, employment and household income of the poorer income classes, providing a "win-win" outcome. The gain of income is higher than inflation for low and middle income classes, helping to reach a better income distribution pattern. However, under a global carbon tax scheme, applied on burning of fossil fuels in Brazil as well, GDP is slightly lower. Even though, the use of the carbon tax revenues to decrease labour charges and foster job creation might keep employment

levels and preserve social development gains.

The Brazilian case illustrates the relevance of choosing the appropriate instruments to overcome the economic/financial and non-economic barriers to the mitigation options, according to the national circumstances, in order to achieve a transition towards a lower carbon society.

### K-L3.1-06

#### Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Transforming the Energy Sector

##### J.C. Hourcade (1)

(1) International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France

Abstract not communicated

## L3.2 - Transformational Energy Technologies

### K-L3.2-01

#### Game Changing Energy Technologies

##### S. Benson (1)

(1) Stanford University, Stanford, United States of America

Successful transformation of our energy system will require game-changing technological innovations. Some of these innovations are here today – for example photovoltaics and wind turbines. Some are likely to be coming soon, but require additional time and effort to decrease costs and scale them up to the enormous size of our energy system. Looking to the future, additional game changing technologies are needed and on the horizon: carbon capture and storage, renewal fuels made without plants, radiative cooling, just to name a few. Now is an incredibly exciting time be involved in this important research endeavor. Indeed it is the challenge and opportunity of the century. In this presentation I will highlight the tremendous progress that has been made in renewable energy and present emerging innovations needed for a more sustainable energy future.

### K-L3.2-02

#### Prospects for Carbon Capture and Storage

##### G. Hill (1)

(1) BP Alternative Energy, Global carbon sequestration technology group, London, United Kingdom

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is likely to be a key technology in a world that has a plentiful resource of fossil fuels and cares about limiting CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. With almost 20 years of development experience, CCS has still to break through the demonstration phase. However internationally a number of large scale projects are about to come on line which might change this perception. This talk will examine what our experience has taught us to date and what challenges remain for CCS.

### K-L3.2-03

#### Energy Systems Integration

##### M. J. O'Malley (1)

(1) Energy Institute and Electricity Research Centre, University college dublin, Dublin, Ireland

Energy systems have evolved from individual energy devices into complex integrated systems that have strong coupling between energy vectors across spatial and temporal scales. Energy Systems Integration (ESI) is the optimization of energy systems across these energy vectors and scales. ESI is most valuable at the interfaces where the coupling and interactions are strong and represent a challenge and/or an opportunity. ESI control variables are technical, economic, regulatory with a strong human dimension. ESI benefits include increase reliability and performance, minimisation of cost and environmental impacts and in particular, increased penetration of renewable energy sources.

## L3.3 - Managing Transitions in Cities: Towards resilient, low-carbon cities

### K-L3.3-01

#### Transition and transformation towards low carbon, resilient cities

##### X. Bai (1)

(1) Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

The facts that link cities and climate change are simple – cities contribute majority of CO2 emissions, and due to the high and growing concentration of population in cities and the geographic locations of world major cities, cities are also increasingly exposed of, and would suffer from, the impacts of climate change. It is increasingly recognized that transition and transformation towards low carbon and resilient cities are critical, and what we do in our cities, and how we do it, may largely determine our collective futures under climate change.

The importance of looking at cities in climate change is paramount, and the need for the role of cities to be

better recognized and for cities to be better integrated in international climate change negotiations is essential. However, the real challenge lies in how can we initiate, manage, and achieve transitions and transformations that enable cities to become low carbon and more resilient. Drawing on recent studies and several examples, this paper explores such challenges and potential leverage points, from the following four aspects:

a) The complex and multifaceted linkages between cities and climate change: The linkages between cities and climate change are complex and multifaceted. Cities are the largest contributor of CO2, but they might also be more efficient in terms of delivering the same level of services. Recent research shows that cities impacts on climate change have multiple pathways that go beyond contribution to CO2 emission. Such complexities are not fully recognized, nor they are reflected to inform policy and practice.

b) Contextualizing low carbon concept in rapidly urbanizing regions: The concept of low carbon and
resilient cities often becomes a relative term and context specific. In regions undergoing rapid urbanization and economic growth, the goal of achieving low carbon and resilient cities can have drastically different meaning, which is often contradicted by other objectives that are more pressing and thus given higher priority. For example, how to reconcile the tremendous need to provide urban housing and other infrastructure vs the task of reducing total carbon emission? Competing priorities exist within the cities, but also be dictated by national policy and thus beyond the city's administrative capacity.

c) The need to focus from transition to transformation: Transition can be defined as the shifting of system state, in terms of carbon emission quantity, level of resilience. Transformation on the other hand, means fundamental changes in the society, that involves different actors and perspective, awareness, behaviour, culture norm, and business governance practices. Much of the efforts in low carbon cities are focused on transition. Research shows majority of consumption based carbon are from upstream indirect emission, which can only be addressed via transformational changes.

d) The need for a better understanding of urban systems processes and interaction: Cities are rapidly changing system with interlinked actors and processes. There are synergies, trade-offs and feedbacks between actions within different sectors, with direct and flow on effects. Such interactions, and in particular the feedbacks, are not well understood. As far as cities are concerned, it probably is not true that all the science needed to take action is out there. Further, the sector or actor that initiates a climate mitigation or adaptation action might be responsible for and own the action, but not the flow on effects, positive or negative. A better understanding of urban system processes and interactions can help identify leverage points and target the most important interactions and actors, which in turn will enable cities to harness energies while limiting trade-offs.

## O-L3.3-01

# Urban Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

### C. Rosenzweig (1)

(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, United States of America

Cities are acting as world leaders in climate action. This is a crucial stage where significant opportunities are emerging for the co-production of knowledge between researchers and stakeholders. This discussion will draw on the Urban Climate Change Research Network's (UCCRN) Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) as an example of the co-production of climate knowledge for cities. The discussion will also highlight the work being done by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) to aid in developing science-based policy solutions for resilience in the metropolitan region of New York City.

The objective of the UCCRN is to bring together experts working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective implementation of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers.

The First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was published in 2011 by Cambridge University Press, and articulates urban climate risk frameworks, climate science for cities, and derives policy implications for key urban sectors - water and sanitation, energy, transportation, public health - and cross-cutting issues through land use and governance. The ARC3 report, containing 46 city adaptation and mitigation case studies, represents a four-year effort by 100+ scholars from over 50 cities in both developing and developed countries, and is the first-ever global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessment to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities.

The UCCRN is now working towards launching the next installment in this ongoing series, the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2, which has been submitted to Cambridge University Press for publication. The ARC3-2 Report is scheduled to be launched at COP21 in Paris in December 2015. The

UCCRN is also launching its Case Study Docking Station later this year, providing examples of urban mitigation and adaptation initiatives from 100 cities across the globe.

New York City, one of the cities included in UCCRN's Case Study Docking Station, is a leading example for urban climate change adaptation and resilience. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) is an independent body that advises the City on climate risks and resiliency. Utilizing the best available data, NPCC science informs New York City's comprehensive climate policies, positioning residents and planners to confront expected future changes in the most effective way possible. The NPCP was established in 2008 by then Mayor Michael Bloomberg as an ongoing collaboration between scientists and key stakeholders in the City of New York to integrate resilience against the future impacts of climate change into long term sustainable planning.

The NPCP released its first report in 2010 outlining the key impacts that climate change is projected to have on the city through 2080. In February of this year, the NPCP released its second report, Building the Knowledge Base for Climate Resiliency (NPCP 2015). This provided climate projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise through 2100 for the first time, representing advancement in the science for resilience. New topics covered in the NPCP 2015 report also include public health, with a focus on extreme heat events, coastal storms, and enhanced dynamic coastal flood modeling, which incorporate the effects of sea level rise. The work of the NPCP has been used by New York City planners to guide key adaptation initiatives. This science information was included in rebuilding efforts after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 through the Special Initiative on Rebuilding and Resiliency, in the City's $20 billion adaptation plan for climate change, and most recently in Mayor de Blasio's One NYC initiative for approaching sustainability, resiliency, and equality simultaneously in the 21st century.

## O-L3.3-02

# Shaping low carbon infrastructures - major requirements and illustrative examples

### M. Fischedick (1)

(1) Wuppertal Institut, Wuppertal, Germany

Reduction of GHG emissions caused by cities plays a decisive role in the climate change debate. Due to rapid urbanization in many parts of the world, particularly in the developing world, appropriate solutions have to be found for growing cities and even new agglomeration areas. In cities with mature infrastructures, their exemplary roles are especially important in demonstrating the cornerstones of a low-carbon transition, such as in their building and equipment operation including deep retrofits, general procurement and mobility system transformation.

Systematic and coordinated strategic urban planning with effective stakeholder participation is of high importance for developing low-carbon urban infrastructures. Specification of mitigation priorities has to start at the very beginning with carefully identifying and addressing the needs and the challenges in each of the key sectors (including basic needs of inhabitants). The planning shall be based on robust scientific analysis, shall start with a solid analysis of the urban infrastructure structures, the GHG emission sources (GHG inventory) and their endogenous and exogenous driver. In addition the whole bunch of mitigation options (from smart energy efficiency services to decentralized renewable energy supply structures) has to be considered and properly assessed.

As consequence of high fixed costs of urban infrastructure measures and the long life span of those investments, within the planning process lock-in risks and path dependencies have to be considered carefully. In the long term with the growing implementation of energy efficiency measures to minimize embodied energy becomes more and more important. A better understanding of the value chain and of about how to change the existing relationships is therefore key.

For shaping suitable low-carbon infrastructures no blueprint is available and specific conditions of every city are crucial. However, exchange of experience can play an important role in finding the right solutions. With this regard international city networks and bi- or multilateral partnerships (e.g. in the context of existing twinning towns) can help to exchange experience of how to steer
urban transition processes successfully and how to set a solid fundament to achieve an appropriate implementation culture.

Cities often are the crucial driver and forerunner for significant changes on the national level (or even the international level). They are often focal point for political and cultural changes and provide the right framework for development and testing of niche innovations, innovations that have the potential for the necessary changes of socio-economic regimes (including institutional settings and consumer behavior respectively routines). With this regard cities can also be seen as perfect real laboratories. In cities socio-technical texture of modern societies can be found (comprising energy and transport system, provision of food and education etc.), but in comparison to states with a lower grade of complexity. Learning formats can be better placed under those conditions.

Against that background the presentation will provide major requirements for shaping carbon infrastructures and will give illustrative examples for successful practical steps.

Reduction of GHG emissions caused by cities plays a decisive role in the battle against climate change. Due to rapid urbanization in many parts of the world, particularly in the developing world, appropriate solutions have to be found for growing cities and even new agglomeration areas. In cities with mature infrastructures, their exemplary roles are especially important in demonstrating the cornerstones of a low-carbon transition, such as in their building and equipment operation including deep retrofits, general procurement and mobility system transformation.

Systematic and coordinated strategic urban planning with effective stakeholder participation is of high importance for developing low-carbon urban infrastructures. Specification of mitigation priorities has to start at the very beginning with carefully identifying and addressing the needs and the challenges in each of the key sectors (including basic needs of inhabitants). The planning shall be based on best practices and start with a solid analysis of the given urban infrastructures, the GHG emission sources (GHG inventory) and their endogenous and exogenous driver. In addition the whole bunch of mitigation options (from smart energy efficiency services to decentralized renewable energy supply structures) has to be considered and properly assessed.

As consequence of high fixed costs of urban infrastructure

measures and the long life span of those investments, within the planning process lock-in risks and path dependencies have to be considered carefully. In the long term with the growing implementation of energy efficiency measures to minimize embodied energy becomes more and more important. A better understanding of the value chain and of about how to change the existing relationships is therefore key.

For shaping suitable low-carbon infrastructures no blueprint is available and specific conditions of every city are crucial. However, exchange of experience can play an important role in finding the right solutions. With this regard international city networks and bi- or multilateral partnerships (e.g. in the context of existing twinning towns) can help to exchange experience of how to steer urban transition processes successfully and how to set a solid fundament to achieve an appropriate implementation culture.

Cities often are the crucial driver and forerunner for significant changes on the national level (or even the international level). They are often focal point for political and cultural changes and provide the right framework for development and testing of niche innovations, innovations that have the potential for the necessary changes of socio-economic regimes (including institutional settings and consumer behavior respectively routines). With this regard cities can also be seen as perfect real laboratories. In cities socio-technical texture of modern societies can be found (comprising energy and transport system, provision of food and education etc.), but in comparison to states with a lower grade of complexity. Learning formats can be better placed under those conditions.

Against that background the presentation will provide major requirements for shaping carbon infrastructures and will give illustrative examples for successful practical steps.

## O-L3.3-03

### Experiences from the ground: Case study from a City

D. Ürge-Vorsatz (1)

(1) Central European University, Center for climate change and sustainable energy policy (3csep), Budapest, Hungary

Abstract not communicated

# L3.4 - Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Biodiversity Conservation: How we can help organisms to adapt by themselves, what the limits are, and how we can use ecosystem processes to help people adapt

## K-L3.4-01

### Strategic approaches for enhancing climate change adaptation of species and ecosystems

W. Foden (1)

(1) Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of Witwatersrand, Gauteng, South Africa

Even under best case mitigation scenarios, most species and ecosystems must undergo adaptation if they are to avoid extinction and maintain their functions under climate change. Published observations of such adaptation now number in the thousands and include shifts in species' distributions and the timings of seasonal activities such as animal migrations and plant phenology. A large literature is also emerging, however, on the negative impacts of climate change on less adaptive species and ecosystems. The broad spectrum of impacts includes physiological stress and mortality, population and distribution declines, food web disruptions, and increased competition with dispersive 'climate change immigrants'. Climate change challenges conservation strategies to make a strong

shift from traditional preservationist approaches towards promoting adaptive changes while minimising negative impacts. Here I discuss emerging approaches for enhancing climate change adaptation of species and ecosystems and outline some of the key gaps and challenges in this field.

Projecting climate change impacts on species and ecosystems is an important early step in effective adaptation planning. This has driven rapid development of a suite of approaches and methods for assessing the vulnerability of species and ecosystems to climate change, generally by co-opting methods used for other purposes. Each differs in its strengths, weaknesses, resource requirements and suitability to different contexts, and no single one has emerged as clearly superior, nor seems likely to do so in the near future. This introduces a considerable challenge for conservation practitioners, who must select between and learn to apply sometimes complex methods for their focal areas, ecosystems or species. Although filled in part by the forthcoming IUCN SSC guidelines for assessing species' vulnerability to climate change, the gap between academic developments and their accessibility to practitioners remains a concerning challenge. Equally, assessing how human responses to climate change will impact on natural systems (e.g., changes in agriculture
and new infrastructure such as dams and sea walls) is an important gap for species-focused climate change vulnerability assessment in particular.

A range of approaches have emerged for enhancing climate change adaptation of species and ecosystems. These include those focused on landscapes (e.g., increasing protected area connectivity and permeability), sites or site networks (e.g., creating habitat refuges and decreasing “climate change stressors”), and species (e.g., enhancing evolutionary potential through translocation or ex situ conservation). Most are extensions or modifications of existing conservation approaches and, to date, there has been little investigation of their effectiveness for minimizing climate change impacts, nor of their potential unforeseen maladaptive effects. Since conservation under climate change is unprecedented, we can expect errors and failures along with successes. Development of an evidence base from which we can learn will facilitate the rapid advancements needed in this important emerging field, and will help to avoid both potentially negative actions and wasted resources. Even while climate change adaptation strategies and our skill at implementing them improve, their potential to minimise losses of ecosystem function and extinction is finite. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thereby limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change are vital for the success of climate change adaptation initiatives.

### K-L3.4-02

#### Operational interventions to assist the adaptation of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change

**G. Midgley, (1)**

(1) Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

The change over the next century may be unprecedented in several million to tens of millions of years. This perturbation to the climate system is occurring during an inter-glacial phase, which is a naturally warm phase in the context of the Pleistocene epoch, which prior to the Holocene Epoch of the past 12000 years, has predominantly (more than 80% of the time) seen global temperatures of roughly 5°C cooler than the Holocene, and atmospheric CO2 levels of 180 to 200 ppm vs the 280 ppm CO2 of the Holocene prior to the onset of the Anthropocene. Scenarios of 500+ ppm CO2 and possible warming in excess of 3°C represent a fundamental ecological shock to terrestrial ecosystems globally, especially in the light of the much cooler planetary history of the Pleistocene. Nonetheless, ecosystems and their component biodiversity have been affected to varying degrees and cooling cycles and have been closely coped with these, indicating the potential for substantial natural adaptive capacity, and inherent resilience.

One clear adaptive response has involved geographic range shifts, especially at higher latitudes in the northern Hemisphere where temperature exerts a dominant control on growing season, biome distributions, and the geographic distribution of species. This observation, together with observations of incipient range shift responses has led to the application of a paradigm largely

of “passive” adaptive planning. That is, using projected geographic shifts of species in response to future change, the spatial planning of areas that anticipate the direction and preferred routes for range shifts to facilitate receptive landscapes. Under extreme scenarios involving high rates of climate change on flat landscapes with a high “climate velocity” more active approaches have also been explored, including assisted migration. A final safety-net approach of gene or seed-banking has also been proposed. Such important range shifts have been for natural adaptation. In these ecosystems, for example, the past changes in atmospheric CO2 levels have had critical direct impacts on ecosystem distribution, with tropical forests losing significant areal coverage due to the limiting effect of low atmospheric CO2 on tree production. This may have interacted with the fire regime to allow flammable grasslands to expand and dominate tropical regions, possibly enhanced by an ascendant grazing vs diminishing browsing fauna.

However, in the subtropics and tropics, where water availability and disturbance regimes exert control over ecosystem structure and function, it is far less clear how important range shifts have been for natural adaptation. In these ecosystems, for example, the past changes in atmospheric CO2 levels have had critical direct impacts on ecosystem distribution, with tropical forests losing significant areal coverage due to the limiting effect of low atmospheric CO2 on tree production. This may have interacted with the fire regime to allow flammable grasslands to expand and dominate tropical regions, possibly enhanced by an ascendant grazing vs diminishing browsing fauna.

Under these conditions, ecosystems respond according to changing disturbance rules, and not climate rules, and thus individual range shifts may be less important, but community effects may be more important as entire ecosystems may change their structure and function over large areas, thus changing habitat conditions for consumers, and indeed interacting with consumer responses. With future atmospheric CO2 projected to approach levels not seen for more than 20 million years, direct CO2 impacts may strongly influence ecosystem and habitat shifts due to changing fire regime and water use efficiency in water-limited ecosystems, potentially encouraging the re-establishment of more woody biomes. This opens the potential for active management response versus the passive landscape planning approach. Active management would involve strategic decisions about desired future states, achievable through the use of fire and graze/browse management responses.

Conservation practitioners would benefit by considering both active and passive adaptive strategies for biodiversity conservation, as both may have relevance, albeit with different emphases, in low and high latitude situations. Much can be learned from experience in active interventions long practiced in tropical and sub-tropical situations involving fire management, browse-graze manipulation, and translocation/reintroduction of animal species. An urgent effort is also required to understand the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect on water-limited ecosystems, and the potential of this process to transform the structure and function of fire and grazing-controlled ecosystems.

### K-L3.4-03

#### Title not communicated

**B. Vira**

Abstract not communicated

## L3.5 - Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

### K-L3.5-01

#### Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

**R. Nicholls (1)**

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom

This presentation will review the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise. This is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming and has significant impacts. Importantly, there is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to

the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). While we cannot avoid some global rise in sea level, we can still avoid significant losses of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with significant long-term benefits to coastal inhabitants. The available results suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This point has been clearly articulated in coastal impact chapters of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessments. This approach requires the joint evaluation
of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas which has
not been systematically considered to date. Because of the
long time constants involved such assessments need to
continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of
the different policy choices. While the basic science of the
commitment was available and presented in the First IPCC
Assessment, the policy implications are less appreciated
and need wider discussion.

K-L3.5-02

Indigenous knowledge on ecosystem
cycles in Northwestern Amazon: a co-
aborative research towards climate change
assessment in a regional scale

A. Cabalzar (1)

(1) Instituto Socioambiental, Programa Rio Negro, São Paulo SP, Brazil

Tropical rainforests are of utter importance for ecological
balance and climate stability on global scale. However, as
widely reported, there is a growing threat to them and their
traditional peoples, deforestation performing between 15
to 20% of the global GHG emissions. The Amazon forest
is the largest rainforest in the planet. Indigenous peoples
have a key role in the future governance of the Amazon
biome, considering that 27,5% of the whole extension of
the Amazon basin consists of indigenous territories – in
Brazil the percentage is about 22% and in Colombia, it is
higher than 50% (http://raisg.socioambiental.org/temas/
territorio-indigena). This shows significant interrelations
between tropical forests, indigenous peoples and the
climate change.

The collaborative research initiative here described aims
at joining the efforts of IPCC WG II, as stated in its Summary
for Policymakers, to more accurately address adaptation
and mitigation solutions, as well as knowledge networks
on the regional scale, to face climate change effects.
Rather than supporting local population to adapt to climate
change, this long term applied research project aims to
understand how indigenous peoples are engaged with the
environment through their current management practices.
The notion of life cycle, integrating both sociocultural
and natural aspects, is privileged as an assessment
methodology. Indigenous peoples have developed detailed
and sophisticated knowledge on the ecological processes
which could improve a more rich and territorialized
comprehension of ecosystem transformations and climate
change.

Since 2005 a collaborative research has been developed on the ecological and socio-economic cycles in the Northwestern Amazon, a region of about 250000 square kilometers of officially recognized and demarcated indigenous territory at the border Brazil-Colombia. This cross-cultural and interdisciplinary research involves a team of indigenous and non-indigenous researchers, and methodologies aimed at an effective communication and collaboration between the indigenous knowledge and Western science. This initiative aims to: (1) describe the economic-ecological and socio-cultural calendar of indigenous peoples of the Amazon northwest, from observations and recordings done by the indigenous researchers over the years; (2) monitor the annual cycles, identifying and analyzing their patterns and variations, noting possible regional effects of more extensive climate change; (3) as a future perspective, guiding environmental governance policies of indigenous territories considering climate change scenarios; (4) propose ways and methodologies to monitor climate change from the collaboration between indigenous and scientific knowledge within the Amazon basin.

Information and policies related to climate change
commonly reach the local communities through biased
and inappropriate ways, typically from top to bottom.
This collaborative research, which emerged in the context
of long-term partnership relations between regional
indigenous local organizations, FOIRN (Regional Federation
of indigenous organizations) and ISA (Socioenvironmental
Institute), who jointly develop several projects in the areas
of sustainable community development, capacity building
etc.), seeks an exchange of knowledge on annual cycles.
It departs from a simple methodology based on daily
written logbooks kept by indigenous dwellers (trained as
researchers) from various communities along the same
river (about 400 km long) and some of its tributaries,
usually young adults who search for additional information

and interpretations with elder knowledge holders, about
the phenomena they are observing. In addition, workshops
are made to organize and discuss this material with
researchers and advisers of ISA. The main assumption is
the recognition that indigenous peoples inhabiting the
same region for generations, even centuries, and relying
directly on ecological and climatic processes and cycles for
their own subsistence activities, are the ones who better
know and understand the life cycles.

This research process has accumulated extensive
material that is being organized, edited and analyzed.
This poster describes the annual calendar of the Eastern
Tukanoan peoples, and indicates its relevance in assessing
ecosystem and climate change on a regional scale and
unfolding possibilities in terms of relevant public policies.

K-L3.5-03

Effective adaptation strategies and risk
reduction to global changes in small far-
mers in Mesoamerica

A. Solano (1); E. Castellanos (1); C. Tucker (2); H. Eakin (3)
; J. Barrera (4); R. Diaz (5)

(1) Universidad Del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guanajuato, Guatemala; (2) Indiana University, Zoology, Zooplontology, Bloomington, IN, United States of America (3) Arizona State University, Arizona, United States of America; (4) El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Tapachula, Mexico; (5) Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica

Mesoamerica is a region highly vulnerable to climate
change because of its geographic location and topography.
Moreover, high levels of poverty and social exclusion
increase the population vulnerable to climate change. In the
century past, the region has been severely affected by extreme weather
events with high cost in casualties and economic impacts.
A single event such as Hurricane Stan in 2005 produced an
economic loss similar to the GDP increment for Guatemala
for that year. Drought events are occurring more frequently
and threaten food security for thousands of impoverished
families who depend on subsistence agriculture.

Coffee is an export crop that has been most affected in
recent years not only by extreme weather events, but
also by the economic crisis as a result of price volatility in
the international market and more recently by the strong
incidence of coffee dust infestation. Across Mesoamerica,
over 4 million people depend directly on coffee production
for their livelihoods. Most producers are farmers with
limited areas of land and few economic resources but
their system of production results in a robust agroforestry
system, which provides various environmental services.

Our Global Changes and Coffee research program has
been working with small farmers in the region for the last
ten years to study the adaptation strategies of families
whose livelihoods are threatened by multiple pressures
from global changes such as climate change, increase
incidence of pests and diseases, and highly volatile
international markets for their products. Our research
has focused in four countries in Mesoamerica: Mexico,
Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica through the work of
a multidisciplinary research network formed by scientists
from the social and natural sciences.

In this paper, we will discuss results derived from three
objectives of our research program. Studying the
perceptions of farmers to identify situations that affect
them, 2. Identifying the barriers that limit their efforts
to adapt to a multi-stressor environment, and 3. Making
recommendations for stakeholders at the local and
national level working to support these farmers.

Results show that most farmers who participated in this
study perceive that there is a change in climate conditions,
resulting in warmer days and changes in the seasonality of
rainfall (change in the start and end of the rainy season).
The incidence of pests and diseases has also changed:
pests are observed more aggressive and more abundant.
Still, farmers are mostly concerned about the high volatility
determine the prices in international markets, which of course
decide the prices paid to them locally. One important
strategy adopted by farmers is diversification both of
economic activities and cultivated crops.

Our research shows that there are significant barriers to
adaptation among farmers: limited financial resources,
insufficient technical support, low availability of key information such as weather forecasts and market variations, and difficulty in keeping local organizations active.

Adaptation should be approached as a two-way process: top-down, with national-level decision-makers developing policies and programs to increase access to financial instruments, to improve the dissemination of strategic information on global markets and climate variability. This should be complemented with a bottom-up approach that strengthens existing social capital in the form of local organizations and cooperatives, and increases the flow of knowledge from local communities involved in processes of autonomous adaptation to national government officials and decision makers.

### K-L3.5-04

#### Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

E. Nkonya (1); F. Place (2); E. Kato (2); M. Majaliwa (3)
(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., United States of America; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., United States of America; (3) Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

The overarching challenge of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) governments is to design appropriate policies that will increase smallholder farmer uptake of climate-smart land and water management (CSLWM) practices. This study was done to determine impact of policies on farmer adaptation to climate change. The study used a transboundary approach in which the studies with comparable biophysical and socio-economic characteristics but residing in two neighboring countries with different policies were used. The study shows that investment in agricultural research and development, strong land & tree tenure, decentralization and investment in smallholder irrigation are the key policies that enhance CSLWM uptake and adaptation to climate change. Additionally policies that provide incentives for tree planting and protection and that give mandate to local communities to manage natural resources are key strategies for enhancing uptake of CSLWM.

The study also found that government policies that provide incentives for long-term land investments are more important than large top-down public investments that ignore the role of farmers in planning and management of such investments.

### K-L3.5-05

#### Achieving the Potential Contribution of Planted Forests to Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change

JM. Carnus (1); P. Freer-Smith (2); M. Tomé (3); P. Tim (4); T. Fox (5); W. Kollert (6); C. Orazio (7); J. Morison (8)

(1) INRA, Department of Forest, grassland and freshwater ecology, Toulouse, France; (2) Forestry Commission, Forest research, Farnham, United Kingdom; (3) ISA, LISBON Portugal; (4) Scion, Rotorua, New Zealand; (5) Virginia Institute of Technology, Forestry, Virginia, United States of America; (6) FAO of the United Nations, Forestry, Rome, Italy; (7) EFI, EFIATLANTIC, cestas, France; (8) Forest Research, Centre for sustainable forestry and climate change, Farnham, United Kingdom

Globally, production and provision of ecosystem goods and services from planted forests are being altered by climate change. This poses new challenges to forest policy makers, local communities, forest managers and the forest-based industries which depend increasingly on wood and biomass resources from planted forests. Planted forests can also be managed to make a major contribution to removal of carbon from the atmosphere and hence the mitigation of climate change. Climate change adaptation strategies and recommendations for sustainable forest management have been developed at global or regional scales for planted forests in various environmental and socio-economic contexts, but these need to be complemented and further elaborated for implementation at local scales in close interaction with regional, national and local stakeholders. We will present territorial forestight approaches, landscape simulation tools, carbon budgeting

and best practice case studies from planted forests in various temperate regions around the world. These can provide useful models and demonstrators on which to base management options to achieve effective future adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

### K-L3.5-06

#### Using seasonal forecasts to improve small farmers' resilience and adaptation to climate change and food security in Yatenga northern Burkina Faso

L. Some (1)

(1) Institut de l'environnement et de recherches agricoles, Gestion des ressources naturelles, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Agriculture in the Sahel is strongly dependent on rainfall, hence the urgent need to disseminate appropriate seasonal climate forecasts. Since 1998, researchers in several international and regional forecast centers help of experts from national and international organizations to provide answers. In June 2014, these predictions were compared with indigenous knowledge based on observations of certain signs, made by people in 11 villages of the CCAFS research site in Yatenga, Burkina Faso. These two types of prediction converged and gave a season rainfall deficit trend compared to the average observed over the last thirty years. Ten farm managers in each of these villages, which produce cowpeas and / or sesame each received a radio to monitor weather information broadcast daily in local language and in French by a community radio station covering the area well. Yield squares were placed in their fields to an assessment of production. Meanwhile, ten farmers in six villages considered as control were also selected and their fields, followed in the same conditions as above. The controls did not receive information on seasonal climate forecasts through the project and have not been endowed with radios. The results show excess rainfall totals to normal in the region, but badly distributed in time and space, causing dry spells in some localities. Preliminary agronomic results do not show significant differences between the two types of monitoring operations.

Key words: Productivity, sesame cowpea, climate forecasting, Yatenga, Burkina Faso

### K-L3.5-07

#### Joint public and private finance for ecosystem-based adaptation - an example from nature-based coastal protection in Indonesia

K. Meijer (1)

(1) Deltares, Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Delft, Netherlands

Measures to adapt to climate change can have negative environmental impacts. For example, coastal flood protection walls prevent the influx of sediment and the natural build-up of coastal areas, while increased fresh water storage in reservoirs can lead to fragmentation of river ecosystems. However, adaptation can also be done with less impact on the environment, for example by restoring mangrove forests to protect against floods. Such adaptation strategies that make use of the natural functioning of ecosystem processes are referred to as 'ecosystem-based adaptation'. Ecosystem-based adaptation can therefore be assessed not to have negative environmental impacts but rather to strengthen or expand ecosystems and protect biodiversity.

Developing countries may require financial support to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The international community has committed to providing 100 billion USD/year from 2020 to support climate change mitigation and adaptation development. The amount to be spent on adaptation, large financial flows can be expected in the coming decades to support the implementation of adaptation projects in developing countries. Funds should come from both public and private sources; public funds should be used to 'leverage' private sector funds. Through the provision of finance, investors and donors may steer how adaptation is implemented. The question this paper addresses is whether ecosystem-based adaptation is, or can be made, as attractive to
investors and donors as conventional adaptation.

This paper starts with a discussion of the revenue-generating potential of ecosystem-based and conventional adaptation alternatives for different types of climate impacts. Subsequently, we analyze the case of nature-based flood protection in Indonesia, which is currently being implemented as an alternative for concrete breakwaters that have been used so far. We discuss economic benefits and (financial) incentives related to both options. We pay specific attention to the financial aspects of the nature-based flood defense, which is financed through a combination of international and national public, and international private funds. Based on the analysis of the case we provide suggestions for international public funds to further promote ecosystem-based adaptation solutions and to leverage private sector finance for this purpose, and provide a first check regarding to what extent such solutions are actively or passively promoted by a selection of current funds.

## K-L3.5-08

### Global change adaptation in the Llobregat basin: methodology and tool for medium and long term water resources planning

A. Cabello (1); L. Pouget, (1)

(1) cetaqua, Sustainability department, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as climate, water demand or land use. In this context, the Water Change project developed a methodology and a tool which can provide support to decision makers in assessing potential future impact of global change on water resources and give guidance as to the effectiveness of possible strategies of adaptation.

The methodology focuses on the creation of global change scenarios, the analysis of impacts and the definition of adaptation strategies based on a cost-benefit analysis. The tool developed (Water Change Modelling System or WCMS) is a software-based system with a modular approach, linking different models (hydrological, water management and water quality models). The tool enables users to quantify the impacts of global change scenarios and test adaptation measures.

The methodology and tool were applied to the Llobregat river basin, a highly populated catchment under increasing water stress in the North-East of Spain. Impacts of global change scenarios on water supply were assessed for different time horizons and optimum adaptation strategies in terms of cost-benefit were proposed.

The user is free to choose the models to be run in the tool, and different scenarios of global change can be used as inputs, to assess the impacts on water resources (in terms of quality and quantity). Finally, adaptation measures can be implemented to test their effectiveness. Including adaptation to global change in water resources management planning is quite challenging given the uncertainty of future predictions in terms of demand, climate and land use. The adaptation strategies chosen must minimise the risk at an affordable cost, taking into account all the scenarios which could occur at a given time horizon.

As mentioned in the Water Framework Directive, water management plans will have to include adaptation strategies taking into account the impacts of climate change on the water sector. In this context, the methodology and tool developed aim to provide support to decision makers in water management: The tool can be used in any basin and the methodology can be applied in order to evaluate different adaptation strategies, in terms of deficit reduction and costs involved. Thus water and basin agencies are likely to be interested in the final product, and they could be identified through associations such as the INBO (International Network of Basin Organisation).

For the tested case study, a total of 65 scenarios of global change were developed and run using the WCMS. The possible future impacts on water resources and on the water supply of the basin were obtained and the results show the range of impacts increases with time. According to the projections, in 2030 the deficit may reach 10% of the demand while in 2100 the deficit could reach 30% of the demand.

As a response to the impact foreseen different adaptation strategies which could be implemented in the Llobregat River Basin were proposed and assessed. Specific adaptation measures were selected to be applied to the Llobregat river basin. Each adaptation strategy was studied in detail and the amount of water gained from its application and the price of implementation were identified, with the aim to avoid water deficit at the lowest costs.

Each of these strategies was tested for several future scenarios with the aim to know which part of the drought damage has been effectively avoided and which cost (investment and operation of the measures) should be assumed. The inclusion of these alternatives into the tool and the calculation of their costs and benefits provided insight for decision-makers about how much adaptation is needed with respect to the uncertainty of future global change scenarios.

In the case of the Llobregat River Basin, the results showed benefits are significantly higher than costs and thus adaptation to Global Change is desirable. Regarding which strategy should be chosen, the decision-maker can apply different selection criteria, combining the economic values with other indicators of impact.

## K-L3.5-09

### Observations and guidance for land-based mitigation

M. Herold (1)

(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

Progress in observations, and the development of community consensus guidelines and training materials provide underpinnings for planning, implementation and evaluation of mitigations in the forest and agricultural sector. We review the observation needs from multiple stakeholders involved in mitigation and assess how the evolution of dedicated Sourcebook for REDD+ monitoring development Global Observations of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) has supported developing countries. Important developments in the context of the Global Climate Observation Systems (GCOS) are increasingly improving the usefulness of monitoring Essential Climate Variables for climate change mitigation purposes.

## L4.1 - The climate, finance and trade nexus: turning a political challenge into a sustainable development opportunity

### K-L4.1-01

#### Upgrading finance and price signals in an adverse economic context

JC. Hourcade (1)

(1) International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France

The current context of the world economy in the aftermath

of the 2008 financial crisis makes difficult to implement a quickly rising carbon price to trigger ambitious low carbon transition (competitiveness issues, unemployment, political reluctance to transfers compensating the segments of population the most affected by higher energy prices).

This presentation will demonstrate that the emerging calls for upgrading climate finance will also confront this adverse context because of the tightness of public budgets. It will then propose to turn the question upside-down through
making climate finance a lever to upgrade the efficiency of the current financial intermediation in directing saving towards long term infrastructure investments.

It will then display the basic principles of financial devices apt to a) lower the investment risks on low carbon projects based on an agreed upon notional value of carbon which can be increased at a pace higher than this of a carbon price b) reduce the amount of private savings which go currently in speculative investments and liquid financial products c) foster a sustainable growth recovery out of the current fragile economic context.

It will conclude in showing how such a framework will a) reduce tensions due to the asymmetry of trade- impacts of carbon prices amongst sectors and countries b) fulfill the CBDR principle and c) increase the incentive efficiency of carbon pricing, hence its political acceptability.

## K-L4.1-02

### Using trade policy to ensure the viability of massive use of low carbon technologies

R. Meléndez-Ortiz (1)

(1) International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland

The recent IPCC-report clearly demonstrates the need to shift to a cleaner energy mix if we are to stay within the agreed 2-degree target of global temperature rise. In order to do so, costs of renewable energy must go down and markets need to be strengthened so as to allow for a scale-up of innovation, production and deployment of sustainable energy technologies.

Trade policy has an important role to play in this respect. Reducing tariffs and barriers to trade in services related to clean energy will make it easier for private actors to optimize their supply-chains, thereby pushing down costs. In order to further enhance trade opportunities it will also be necessary to address less tangible but nevertheless significant non-tariff barriers such as standards.

In the past few years, there has been a surge in the use of trade remedies in the area of clean energy. Whereas this to a great extent reflects a natural consolidation of the market with steeply falling prices, the pressure is strong on governments to put in place trade restrictions to protect its domestic industry.

Similarly, whereas decision-makers across the world recognise the need to scale up clean energy at home, it can be challenging to put in place policies that may be

perceived as costly unless there is an encouragement specifically for the domestic industry. This has led to the proliferation of trade restrictive policies like local content requirements, which demand that a certain amount of inputs in different clean energy projects be produced domestically.

Ironically, many of these trade restrictive policies maintain costs of climate-friendly technologies artificially high.

There are several options for addressing these trade obstacles. First, there are regional trade agreements- many of the world's leading trade nations are currently involved in the negotiations of "mega-regions" such as the T-TIP and the TPP. Second, there is a negotiation underway under a sectoral initiative aiming towards an Environmental Goods Agreement, EGA. Last, there is the option of unilateral trade reform.

The engagement and support of the climate constituency in these efforts would ensure a better alignment of trade policies with pressing climate change goals.

## K-L4.1-03

### Connecting emerging initiatives; the lessons for the UNEP finance inquiry

N. Robins (1)

(1) UNEP, London, United Kingdom

The UNEP Inquiry was launched in January 2014 to identify and advance policy options that can better align the US$300trn global financial system with long-term sustainable development. The Inquiry has worked through partnerships at the country level - including Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, France, India, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Switzerland, the UK and the USA - as well as with international institutions. Its findings show that a growing number of governments, regulators, standard-setters and market actors are incorporating sustainability into their rules that govern the financial system. Across the Inquiry's work, climate change has emerged as a key cross-cutting issue, and the Inquiry has recently published an emerging framework for linking financial reform and climate security. This framework identified four priority areas: risk management and prudential regulation; capital mobilisation; system transparency; and strengthening financial culture. Cutting across these priority areas, the strategic framework of central banks has emerged as a critical theme. In this session, the Inquiry will present its findings, suggesting ways in which international cooperation could be strengthened.

## L4.2 - Resilience and Transformative Solutions - Refining Old Strategies and Developing New Ones for Adaptation in Island Environments

### K-L4.2-01

#### Climate change governance and Caribbean SIDS

M. Scobie (1)

(1) The University of the West Indies, Institute of International Relations, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of governance of climate change is extremely important, more so for small island developing states: adaptation, mitigation, climate finance, governance architectures, environmental justice, equity etc. Albeit a small proportion of the world, the peoples of these nations and their governance challenges are part of the global climate policy discourse. That said, the recent scholarly literature has focused on the science of climate change for SIDS, but there is less on the governance of climate change for SIDS in general and the Caribbean in particular. The science is clear: adaptation is needed and urgently, yet the formula to make this happen is hard to come by. What would be a useful model for the climate governance architecture in the Caribbean SIDS region? The paper puts the results of the present science and future projections

into the context of existing governance arrangements and looks at the weaknesses of the present system and how those may be eliminated to improve governance effectiveness. These issues are important for climate policy practitioners in SIDS and should also be at the forefront of the minds of academics, policy makers and practitioners in donor countries as they seek to engage in the analysis of the best models for effectiveness in climate governance, especially for SIDS.

While there are studies on the global dynamics of environmental governance, governance at the local level in SIDS, and in particular Caribbean SIDS has been neglected in the literature. Transnational climate governance is becoming more complex (Andonova, Betsill, and Bulkeley 2009), with a multiplicity of new actors, roles, structures and architectures of the earth's governance (Bulkeley and Moser 2007). This fragmentation of global and local levels of authority are often a hindrance for climate change governance (Palmujoki 2013). The effectiveness, legitimacy and transparency of voluntary non-binding parallel streams of governance is under debate but reflects global engagement for governing climate change (Suiseya and Caplow 2013) and (Kalfagianni 2014). The challenge is to develop a global climate governance model