the climate may be no better off because of it, given the emissions impacts elsewhere in the energy system. Further, analyses show that globally agreed mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon; carbon leakage could become an issue in fragmented policy environments; and carbon lock-in and the eventual premature retirement of fossil infrastructure are realities to be mindful of if major mitigation efforts are delayed beyond 2020.

### K-3306-02

## The market and lock-in effects of new fossil fuel infrastructure, and the need to integrate supply- and demand-side climate policies

P. Erickson (1); L. Michael (1)

(1) Stockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, United States of America

Climate policy and analysis often focus on energy production and consumption, but seldom consider how fossil fuel supply and transportation infrastructure shape energy systems. US President Obama, among others, has recently brought these issues to the fore, stating that he would only approve the Keystone XL pipeline, connecting Canadian oil sands with US refineries and ports, if it does not significantly increase global greenhouse gas emissions. In this presentation, based on our paper in Nature Climate Change (doi:10.1038/nature2335) we show how such infrastructure investments, through market effects, could affect fuel use and global GHG emissions on a scale similar to national policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions. We contend that in order to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of meeting climate protection goals in the coming decades: (1) examination of supply-side investments and their implications for fuel markets, consumption, and emissions, needs to be undertaken widely and systematically; and (2) policies addressing the supply side need to be considered and integrated with more typical, demand-side climate policy. The presentation will synthesize insights from recent literature (e.g., Erickson and Lazarus 2014, Collier and Venables 2014, Faehn, Hagem, et al 2013, McGlade and Ekins 2015), and suggest areas for further inquiry and action for research and policy communities.

### K-3306-03

## Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions: long-term consequences of current investments

S. Davis (1)

(1) University of California, Department of earth system science, Irvine, CA, United States of America

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a budget of cumulative CO2 emissions, such that annual global emissions must ultimately approach zero. Yet, unless retrofitted or retired early, currently new and existing fossil fuel-burning infrastructures commit us to future CO2 emissions over their expected lifetimes. I will highlight the results of two recent publications, Davis and Socolow (1995) and Raupach et al. [2], which need to describe trends in ‘committed’ emissions related to energy infrastructure and how these commitments compare with the remaining budgets of emissions under different climate targets and the options for sharing this budget among nations. Next, I’ll show how the expansion of economic fossil fuel reserves (e.g., by exploration, innovative extraction methods, or improved transport infrastructure), may also represent commitments to extract and burn these fuels [3]. Finally, I’ll discuss the required carbon intensity of new investments given the constraints of a cumulative carbon budget and existing capital stock, with explicit comparisons to a range of top-down energy-emissions scenarios. The combination of such top-down global scenarios and bottom-up appraisals of real-world trends may inform policies that minimize international carbon leakage and carbon lock-in (or stranded assets).

[1] S. J. Davis, R. H. Socolow, Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters, (2014).

[2] M. R. Raupach et al., Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Climate Change 4, 873 (2014).

[3] H.D. Matthews. A growing commitment accounting to future CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters, (2014).

### O-3306-01

## A global abundance of natural gas increases the challenges of climate change stabilisation

J. Hilaire (1); N. Bauer (1); E. Kriegler (1); L. Baumstark (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

The US economic gains and carbon emission reductions associated to the recent US shale gas boom are frequently mentioned to portray natural gas as a bridge technology to a low-carbon future. Having half the carbon footprint of coal, natural gas seems indeed an attractive carbon mitigation option. As a result, several countries including China, India, Mexico, Poland and the UK are seeking to take advantage of the late technological improvements (e.g. hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling ...) and replicate the US development. If successful, this collective endeavour could bless the world with a global abundance of natural gas that would lead to a "golden age of gas". Regular upward revisions in natural gas resources and decline in associated extraction costs support the possibility of such future. However, should global warming be limited to below 2°C with high probability, this global gas bonanza would have to occur simultaneously with a global energy transition aiming at reducing worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero or below by 2100.

Economic theory suggests that the global energy transition can be efficiently orchestrated by setting a global price on carbon emissions. Nonetheless a global carbon price regime is still subject to fierce debates during climate negotiations and will most likely be implemented with a several year delay. Currently, the climate political landscape consists of a mosaic of regional carbon markets and national technology policies. In this context, can a global abundance of natural gas facilitate the global energy transition by reducing its costs, fostering the deployment of low-carbon technologies and reducing CO2 emissions?

We address this question by generating various scenarios with a global model of the energy-economy-climate system. These scenarios differ along two dimensions: the degree of natural gas supply and the delay to implement a global carbon price consistent with a 2°C target. Our results show that seeking to expand natural gas supply whilst trying to protect the climate would bring short-term benefits such as higher GDP, lower electricity prices and reduced short-term mitigation costs. However, it would also increase medium- and long-term mitigation costs substantially, owing to larger CO2 emissions and hence higher CO2 prices. Differences in aggregated discounted consumption losses over 2011-2100 between an abundant-gas and a conventional-gas world amount to more than 0.25 percentage points.

Interestingly, living under a "gloden age of gas" increases the opportunity costs of climate change mitigation, partially because of lock-ins in natural gas technologies. This can be seen by looking at differences in GDP growth reduction. Even though GDP growth is only marginally reduced by an increase in natural gas supply over 2015-2030, this reduction becomes much larger over 2031-2050. More importantly, a delay in comprehensive climate policies leads to more than a quadrupling in GDP growth reduction over 2031-2050 compared with immediate climate action. Consequently not only climate change stabilisation becomes more challenging to achieve in a gas-abundant world but it is even more difficult when climate protraction is delayed.

### O-3306-02

## South Africa's planned coal infrastructure expansion: drivers, dynamics and implications for carbon emissions

J. Burton (1)

(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

South Africa has both domestic climate mitigation objectives and has pledged internationally to reduce its
Unconventional Gas in the Context of
Annex 1 Climate Policy

J. Broderick (1); K. Anderson (1); R. Wood, (1)

(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, Manchester,
United Kingdom

Recent work has illustrated the geographic distribution of 'unburnable' fossil fuel reserves under climate policy constraints (McGlade and Ekins, 2015). Natural gas is often referred to as a transition fuel but typically with little specific qualification of quantities of consumption, rates of transition and end point targets. All of these aspects can be informed by a national cumulative emissions budget approach (e.g. Friedlingstein et al, 2014). We therefore consider national and temporal dimensions of unconventional oil and gas production and consumption taking the UK case of shale gas development as an illustrative example. Recoverable quantities are found to be substantially lower than anticipated in UK energy policy discourses. The evidence and arguments presented are largely applicable to other unconventional gas resources such as coal bed methane (CBM), underground coal gasification (UCG) and shale oil, in other Annex 1 (industrialised) nations.

Shale gas and shale oil are fossil fuels produced by hydraulically fracturing, 'fracking', impermeable shale strata. Gas and oil residing in these and similarly impermeable reservoirs, such as coal measures, are termed "unconventional" resources. Technological developments in this area have substantially increased expectations of recoverable fossil fuel resources (McGlade et al 2013). The scope for unconventional oil and gas production and consumption in Annex 1 countries to contribute efforts to avoid the 2'C characterisation of dangerous climate change has been outlined to date (Broderick and Wood, 2014). Under reasonable assumptions of national and sectoral apportionment, the simple arithmetic of emissions budgets make it clear that Annex 1 nations require a transition to a low carbon energy system in the next two decades (Anderson and Bows, 2011). This limits the time available over which unconventional resources may be extracted and combusted and hence quantities likely to be recovered under a stringent climate regime. We quantitatively illustrate this in relation to existing UK regulations, structured by the Climate Change Act (2009), and the emissions budgets arising. Conditions for oil and gas export, including a quantitative assessment of the prospects for carbon capture and storage (CCS), are then discussed in relation to global emissions budgets and recent developments in the US energy industry.

Anderson, K. and A. Bows (2011). «Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 369(1934): 20-44.

Broderick, J. and R. Wood (2014). "Climate Change Impacts of Shale Gas Production" in Fracking, R. E. Hester and R. M. Harrison (eds), Published by Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, 2014: ISBN: 978-1-84973-920-7

Friedlingstein, P., R. M. Andrew, J. Rogelj, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell, R. Knutti, G. Luderer, M. R. Raupach, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). «Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets.» Nature Geoscience 7(10): 709-715.

McGlade, C. and P. Ekins (2015). «The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.» Nature 517(7533): 187-U143.

McGlade, C., Speirs, J., and S. Sorrell (2013) Unconventional gas - A review of regional and global resource estimates, Energy (55) 571-584

emissions by 34% and 42% below a business as usual baseline by 2020 and 2025 respectively. The peak of this emissions trajectory has already almost been reached. While mitigation policy has filtered into electricity planning processes, limiting demand for coal in the longer-term, both the state and private actors are at the same time investing (or planning to invest) in supply side coal-related sectors. Besides Eskom's large-scale coal-fired power plants currently under construction and the possibility of extending the lives of Eskom's older coal-fired plants, a coal-based independently powered producer procurement programme has recently been announced. This power infrastructure depends on maintaining security of coal supply.

Geological factors, domestic market impacts of past high coal prices and other cost increases in the Central Basin (where the lives of Eskom's older coal-fired plants have lead, however to serious security of physical supply and affordability concerns for Eskom in the medium to long-term. Coupled with political support for expansion of the coal sector both domestically and for export, new investments in the Waterberg coalfield are widely viewed by Eskom, the coal industry and parts of the state as the long-term future of the South African coal industry.

The presentation will briefly outline the implications of planned supply side fossil fuel investments in South Africa, using the results of an extraction-based emissions analysis of the coal industry's South African Coal Road Map scenarios.

Under these scenarios it is likely that South Africa will exceed its carbon budget to 2035. Furthermore, meeting coal demand depends on several upstream investment decisions that are being taken without consideration of either the direct impacts on emissions or the indirect effects on domestic or export coal prices, in particular new rail investment decisions. Such decisions result in increasing economic and financial lock-in of current supply systems.

Coal has historically been, and remains, key to the political economy of South Africa. Part of the explanation for the support for the Waterberg coalfield expansion lies in economic arguments put forward by the industry, which has argued that coal from the Waterberg is significantly cheaper than current and future supplies in the Central Basin. However, evidence for this claim remains limited. More broadly, political support remains important; both in supporting coal-fired electricity, liquid fuels and upstream coal mining in general, and for the Waterberg expansion in particular.

Both the major mining houses and several junior miners are connected to the new political elite; either through large-scale Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) deals, or through direct ownership interests in smaller firms. BEE policies, including Eskom procurement and rail and port access designed to encourage black-owned junior miners, contribute to linking the industry to actors in the ANC and to actors in government who are supportive of BEE as an economic policy. The Waterberg coalfield furthermore provides new investment opportunities for the mining industry, thus providing a focal point around which rail, BEE and coal interests have coalesced and leading to socio-political lock-in.

There is a mismatch between the political economy of the coal (and broader energy) sector and the mitigation efforts of certain parts of the state (based on the implementation of a carbon tax and on sectoral carbon budgets to be imposed on the economy). Despite numerous technical assessments of demand-side policy options to reduce emissions, current institutional arrangements reflect the power of coal-based economic and political interests in Eskom, Transnet, the state and politically connected elites. It appears that transformational energy policy that reduces the extraction of coal is limited by the political make-up of post-apartheid South Africa. Without the integration of supply side investment decisions with future carbon constraints, the country runs the risk of further exacerbating the systemic lock-in of South Africa's high emissions trajectory.
## Energy security and climate policies: An unequal marriage

J. Jewell (1) ; A. Cherp (2)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Central European University, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Budapest, Hungary

The quest for energy security and concerns over climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions are top energy policy priorities worldwide. To complement the growing body of literature on energy security implications of climate change mitigation, this paper examines the two-way interaction between pursuing energy independence and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Using 5 state-of-the-art energy-economy models and 6 long-term global scenarios, our analysis calls for closer and more thoughtful coordination between these policy priorities. First, we show that the pursuit of ambitious yet realistic energy independence targets would result in an insignificant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (5%-15% over the 21st century compared to the Baseline) that will not be sufficient for achieving even the current modest climate pledges. In other words, the climate will not be saved "side-effect" of energy security policies. Second, fulfilling the existing climate pledges would not significantly affect energy imports of major economies though pursuing stringent climate stabilization targets would radically reduce these imports. Third, the modeled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of the current climate pledges but ten times lower than those of the stringent climate policies. In other words, advocates of cost-efficient energy independence may have little reason to support either stringent climate policies (because of their significantly higher costs) or current climate pledges (because of their relatively minor impact on global energy.

## Key Issues in Energy, Climate Change and Environment

C. Lee (1) ; A. Liwayway (1) ; D. Best, (1) ; C. Hood, (1) ; E. Levina, (1)

(1) International Energy Agency, Paris, France

Policies that respond to climate change and other environmental issues will increasingly impact the development of the global energy sector. The transition to low-carbon economies will need to be carefully managed, as the provision of secure, affordable energy is critical for economic growth and social development. More than ever, there is a need for a fuller understanding of the opportunities to promote synergies between energy, environmental and climate policies.

Energy, Climate Change, and Environment: 2014 Insights helps address this need with indepth analysis of selected policy questions at the energy-climate interface, including:

* How can we accelerate the transition from (i.e., "lockdown") existing high-emissions infrastructure?

* What are the best ways to design cost-effective emissions trading systems that fit with national circumstances?

* What are some alternative energy-specific metrics that

support near-term emissions reductions and long-term decarbonisation of the energy sector?

* And, in the special focus of this report, can curbing local air pollution help reconcile energy priorities with environmental sustainability, including greenhouse gas mitigation?

Addressing these questions will help inform decisions that can boost decarbonisation of the energy sector while taking into account security and economic objectives. This report also features an update of key energy and emissions statistics for ten world regions that should interest energy practitioners and climate policy makers alike

## The 3 CRISIS: EEE (ENERGY, ECOLOGY AND ECONOMY)

G. Quartieri (1) ; E. Chavez (2)

(1) IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy; (2) National University of San Marcos, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, OIKOS Association., Lima, Peru

Our common future is conditioned by three World crises: Energy, Ecology and Economy ones. To face them it is necessary to implement an inter disciplinary approach capable to find the interlink of these three issues. The present paper wants to apply system Σ approach to discover the possible connections among energy, ecology and economy disciplines. Those linkages should be able to propose change and unveil possible hidden interlinks.

System approach implies define, operation and control of overall and global Σ system defined by its structure Σε, its specific parameters ΡΣ and its variability VΣ. The system Σ depends upon EEE: Σ = f (E, E, E,). Out of the three crisis, the first and most important one is the energy that has a urgent need for real and right definition of cost, relation, availability, and proportion among fossil (oil, gas and coal), renewable and nuclear sources. Second one is the ecology with an holistic approach to the ecosystem services and their importance in the sustainability due to its inherent importance in different climate scenarios.

The third one is the economy. In this global context, paramount is the economy deception that acts and works as director. Knowledge and information economy appears to be the most probable way to cope with common future overcoming the economy deception phase and present difficulty. Quality of life has been improved according to almost exponential pattern during past ages. However, human quality of life is nowadays strongly influenced by the Standard Environmental Impact Factor I = PxAxT, in different Countries (super-developed, developed and under-developed and so on) of the World. Same approach is valid for all the biodiverbe beings. There is a strong need of interlinks among these three main concepts of EEE. From the history point of view the classical main causes of World degradation, by starting with population reduction, have been wars, pestilences and famines. To cope with a better future, these main causes can and must be avoided, starting with a strong improvement of science, knowledge and information among people.

Consequently, the solution for an appropriate common future is to build a new economy based upon undeceived energy and ecology (including biodiversity) knowledge and information among people all over the World. To these purposes and to get over the EEE crisis, the holistic approach i.e. the system Σ approach has to be applied in order to delete deceptions anywhere and anytime.

# 3307 - Negative emissions for climate change stabilization & the role of CO2 geological storage

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3307-01 (part1)

#### The concept of negative emissions

S. Fuss (1)

(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

Future warming is contingent on the cumulative CO2 emissions until 2100. A maximum of 1,200 GtCO2 can be emitted from 2015 onwards in order to stabilize climate below a global average of 20C above pre-industrial conditions by 2100 with a probability of 66%. At the same
time, emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have increased substantially over the last decade – to 61% above their 1990 level. Reaching 2°C in a cost-effective way will demand strong mitigation action across all sectors. The further we delay mitigation, the greater the challenges will be in the future. One strategy that is currently widely discussed is the deliberate removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by human intervention; that is, not merely going carbon-neutral, but even carbon-negative. Negative emissions in the majority of Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios aiming at keeping warming below 2°C in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are mostly achieved through the production of sustainable bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Some scenarios also feature afforestation for carbon dioxide removal. Other options under discussion involve biochar, enhanced weathering and direct air capture. Indeed by including negative emissions (mostly from BECCS) into our mitigation portfolios, we could effectively double the carbon quota of about 1,000 Gt CO2.

In this keynote, the concept of negative emissions will be introduced and their role in current stabilization pathways will be illustrated and discussed. Most 430-480 ppm and 480-720 ppm CO2eq scenarios feature net negative emissions in the second half of this century. However, negative emission technologies are often deployed earlier, even if it does not lead to a net negative balance. An overview of the challenges that the reliance on negative emissions brings with it will serve to frame the individual contributions in the rest of the session. The focus here will be not only on potentials, but also on the implied tradeoffs e.g. with other policy objectives. Clearly, it is not only important to understand when negative emissions will be adopted and in which form they can be sustainably and cost-effectively implemented. Given this level of emissions and growth trajectory, it will be challenging to meet the international goal of limiting climate warming to less than 2°C. Because of this, carbon-negative solutions – technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – are being proposed. In this paper I give an overview of the carbon-negative solutions available, before looking at some of the environmental and economic implications of their widespread implementation. I show that carbon-negative technologies differ greatly in their costs and n their potential environmental impacts. For example some, such as direct capture of carbon dioxide from the air by engineered chemical reactions, have limited environmental impact but are extremely expensive, while others, such as use of biomass burning to replace fossil fuels in energy production with the capture of the carbon dioxide produced by combustion (known as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage; BECCS), are inexpensive but potentially use a lot of land, putting pressure on land currently used for food production or biodiversity conservation, with a wide range of potential environmental impacts. I conclude by looking at some of the opportunities presented, and risks posed, by reliance on carbon-negative technologies for climate stabilization.

K-3307-01 (part2)

Limits to negative emissions technologies

P. Smith (1)

(1) University of Aberdeen, Institute of Biological &
Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Despite two decades of effort to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s, and reached an all-time high of ~50 thousand million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2010. Given this level of emissions and growth trajectory, it will be challenging to meet the international goal of limiting climate warming to less than 2°C. Because of this, carbon-negative solutions – technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – are being proposed. In this paper I give an overview of the carbon-negative solutions available, before looking at some of the environmental and economic implications of their widespread implementation. I show that carbon-negative technologies differ greatly in their costs and n their potential environmental impacts. For example some, such as direct capture of carbon dioxide from the air by engineered chemical reactions, have limited environmental impact but are extremely expensive, while others, such as use of biomass burning to replace fossil fuels in energy production with the capture of the carbon dioxide produced by combustion (known as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage; BECCS), are inexpensive but potentially use a lot of land, putting pressure on land currently used for food production or biodiversity conservation, with a wide range of potential environmental impacts. I conclude by looking at some of the opportunities presented, and risks posed, by reliance on carbon-negative technologies for climate stabilization.

K-3307-02

Latest developments, opportunities and
challenges for CO2 storage

T. Wildenborg (1)

(1) CO2GeoNet - TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research), CO2GeoNet executive committee member, Utrecht, Netherlands

Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is recognized in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report as part of the mitigation technology portfolio that must be deployed in order to reduce CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and keep the global average temperature change to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Underground storage of CO2 captured at plants in the fossil-fuel energy, bioenergy and industrial sectors is a promising option to reduce emissions into the atmosphere by returning the initially extracted carbon back into the ground, and may also be used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

The CCS concept to mitigate emissions from fossil-fuel and biomass fired power plants and from the processing and cement industry consists of three main components; the cement installation, transport infrastructure by pipeline or ship and geological storage structures in the deep subduction zone. The main components of the deep saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas fields, in Europe, the North Sea region which is rich with oil and gas reservoirs, offers a promising area for CO2 storage. Several countries around the North Sea are developing plans for CO2 storage activities including the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark. Demonstration of CCS is developing at great pace in North America. Recently, the large integrated CCS project Boundary Dam started to operate in Canada.

Inventories of storage potential presented in atlases and
Geographical Information System (GIS) databases and
maps have been performed in many areas of the world
including the USA, Australia and Europe showing that there
is great potential for CO2 storage. Storage potential in
Europe has been estimated at 360 Gt CO2, 244 Gt of which
is available in the offshore region (GeoCapacity project,
2008). Freely challengeable, it also needs a capacity of promising geological storage media through
detailed characterisation and field testing, moving from a
resource estimate towards a reserve estimate.

The technology for CO2 storage is largely derived from
the oil and gas industry including evaluation of reservoir
performance and drilling technology. Underground
storage of natural gas in diverse media is a widespread and
common practice in many regions of the world. Since the
nineties several storage projects have been developed e.g.
the large-scale storage of CO2 in the Norwegian offshore.
On land, several CO2 storage pilots, in different stages
of development are present e.g. in Spain and Germany.
The challenge is to demonstrate large-scale CO2 storage
integrated into a full CCS chain project. Several projects for
large-scale demonstration of CCS in the offshore sectors
of the UK and the Netherlands are in the preparation phase.

The cost of CCS is estimated at 60 to 90 Euro per tonne CO2 in the demonstration phase (reference year 2015) which could drop to 30 to 45 Euro for projects at an early full commercial scale stage (reference year 2030; McKinsey, 2008). The costs of storage in the early commercial phase range from 4 to 12 Euro per tonne CO2 depending on the location and the type of storage structure (McKinsey, 2008). Lowering the costs of the capture installation is the biggest challenge. Financing of CCS projects is currently faced with the low price of emission allowances of less than 7 euro per tonne CO2 (EEX, 10 March 2015). An effective CCS enabling policy with a mature emission trading market is needed.

Containment of the injected CO2 in the reservoir is a prime requirement for CCS to be an effective CO2 abatement technology. For this reason modelling and monitoring of the CO2 in the subsurface receives a lot of attention. The European CCS Directive addresses the key aspects of safe and environmentally sound CO2 storage. The current Directive seems to be fit for purpose but needs more extensive testing in real-life CO2 storage projects.

The public at large is not well informed on CCS technology and its objective of abating CO2 emissions. In onshore settings, people sometimes have shown resistance towards this new technology, like in some initiatives in Germany and the Netherlands. In other instances, like for the CO2 storage pilots near Hontemin in Spain and near Ketzin in Germany, the local people show a positive interest in these activities. Participation of the public from an early stage of project development onwards is key to making people aware of CCS and getting them engaged in these projects.
O-3307-01 (part1)

## Enhanced weathering and BECCS - are carbon dioxide removal technologies complements or substitutes?

J. Strefler (1) ; N. Bauer (1) ; T. Amann (2) ; E. Kriegler (1) ; J. Hartmann (2)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Sustainable solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

In its fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated that scenarios which are consistent with a likely chance to keep temperature change below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels [...] are characterized by [...] emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100* (Edenhofer et al., 2014, Summary for policymakers, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of Working Group III). To reach such low CO2eq emissions, net negative emissions will be necessary in some sectors to compensate for e.g. CH4 and N2O emissions from the land-use sector or industry process emissions. There are at least four options to achieve net negative CO2 emissions: The combination of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering of rocks.

Enhanced weathering (EW), the deployment of finely ground minerals over forests and crop lands, could be used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It faces neither the technological nor the social risks of the other options. However, olivine, the mineral that is best suited, might be contaminated by potentially harmful trace elements. Other sources like basalt can have lower harmful element concentrations, but show lower CO2 sequestration potential.

Our research questions are: What are the optimal design parameters for EW? How does EW as a mitigation option interact with BECCS?

An important parameter that determines costs as well as carbon removal rate is the grain size. We first calculate an optimal grain size that maximizes profits, taking the dependency on carbon removal rate and costs into account. Second we use the calculated parameters for the implementation in the integrated assessment model REMIND and show preliminary results of EW as a mitigation option.

When EW is available as a mitigation option, it provides net negative CO2 emissions which allow for higher CO2 emissions earlier in the century. The slower reduction of CO2 emissions results in a lower CO2 price and therefore lower mitigation costs. We will analyze under which conditions EW is used as a substitute or complement to BECCS. In addition, we analyze scenarios where CCS is not available. In combination with a stringent climate target, these scenarios often show very high mitigation costs or become unachievable. We will investigate to what extent EW can substitute BECCS in this case.

O-3307-01 (part2)

## Addressing technical and resource challenges in delivering negative emissions

J. Gibbins (1) ; H. Chalmers, (1) ; M. Lucquiaud, (1)

(1) University of Edinburgh, School of Engineering, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Approaches that remove carbon dioxide from atmospheric air are likely to be an essential enabling 'backstop' technology for a world that has to keep within a fixed carbon emissions budget to avoid dangerous climate change. Such technologies must be available to be scaled up if necessary to deliver the required carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gas) emission trajectories.

Present technology can deliver carbon dioxide removal (CDR) or 'negative emissions' using biomass with 'conventional' CO2 capture and storage (BECCS). BECCS is probably the best way to use most types of available biomass. For example, battery electric vehicles using BECCS electricity production provide a highly efficient route for using a wide range of biomass materials in transport compared to conversion to liquid fuels. Adding carbon dioxide capture and storage would give a further negative CO2 emission of about 125 g/km to set against

other lifecycle emissions. In buildings, rather than using biomass directly for heating, the same amount of fuel can give similar results if used to generate electricity that can then power heat pumps, plus give negative emissions when combined with CCS.

Although BECCS can make a useful contribution to mitigating the risk of dangerous climate change it cannot be regarded as a robust backstop technology. Especially in a climate-stressed world, it cannot be assumed that sufficient amounts of biomass will be available for this to be the only route. Here Direct Air Capture (DAC) by engineered systems that can be multiplied as required using mass-produced standard components appears to be an essential option for many societies.

In a number of cases DAC facilities are likely to be combined with power plants with CCS. They can share CO2 transport and storage facilities and hybrid technologies would be used also to reduce residual CO2 emissions from the fuel in the power plant to very low levels. DAC technologies can also, however, be located elsewhere. For example, developers could choose to locate DAC facilities close to CO2 storage sites to minimise time and cost associated with establishing CO2 transport infrastructure and also to optimise the use of global storage resources.

Costs for DAC technologies currently being proposed may appear high, but in the context of cancelling out emissions from hard-to-avoid liquid fuel use (as an offset or via fuel synthesis) estimated additional costs are of the order of 1 euro per litre. Some or all of this cost may be offset against reductions in oil prices if there is no other way this oil can be used. Also, when hydrocarbon fuels are used in power plants that are used for electricity generation at low average load factors the cost of abatement using power plant CCS can increase significantly. Ultimately this can mean that power plant CCS loses its cost advantage when compared with DAC plants capturing the same amount of CO2 over an extended period of time that are able to choose to operate all of the time.

Getting to zero, or negative, global emissions is becoming accepted as the challenge the world must overcome. This paper will demonstrate that delivering carbon dioxide removal technologies beyond BECCS is key to researchers and industry helping to deliver a successful response to this challenge.

O-3307-02

## The use of carbon capture and storage in mitigation scenarios – an integrated assessment modelling perspective

D. Van Vuuren (1) ; E. Kriegler (2) ; K. Riahi (3) ; M. Tavoni (4) ; B. Koelbl, (5)

(1) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria; (4) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy; (5) Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays an important role in the model-based scenarios consistent with stringent targets published in the literature, as emphasized in the IPCC 5th assessment report. In scenarios, CCS is partly used in combination with fossil fuels as a mean to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. CCS is also combined with bio-energy (bio-energy-and-CCS, BECCS) to create negative emissions. In the presentation, we will look at the existing literature and discuss 1) total use of CCS and associated use of storage capacity in the different scenarios, and 2) look into the use of negative emission technologies. The AR5-DB offers the opportunity to provide an in depth analysis of CCS technologies are employed for different climate targets and other assumptions. The results show that CCS is increasingly used in combination with bio-energy for increasing stringency of mitigation targets. It also shows that CCS use can be substantial in some IAM scenarios, providing a challenge from storage and transport, land use (for BECCS) and public acceptance perspective.
## Assured capacity for geological storage of carbon dioxide

C. Bentham (1); M. Bentham (1); A. Liebscher (2); F. May (3) I. Akervoll (4); G. Falus (5); M. Vellico (6); M. Car (7); R. Stead (8); G. Pickup (9); D. Fernández Poulkenny (10); R. Saya (10); R. Berendsebouw (11)

(1) CO2GeoNet - BGS (British Geological Survey), Nottingham, United Kingdom; (2) CO2GeoNet-GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; (3) CO2GeoNet- (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources), Hannover, Germany; (4) CO2GeoNet-Sintef (Sintef Petroleum Reserach), Trondheim, Norway; (5) CO2GeoNet-MFGI (Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary), Budapest, Hungary; (6) CO2GeoNet-OGS (National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics), Trieste, Italy; (7) CO2GeoNet-Geoln (Geoinzering), Ljubljana, Slovenia; (8) CO2GeoNet-BRGM (French Geological Survey), Orleans, France; (9) CO2GeoNet-HWU (Heriot-Watt University), Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (10) CO2GeoNet-Ciudad (Fundación Ciudad de la Energía), Leon, Spain; (11) CO2GeoNet-GeoEcoMar (National Institute of Marine Geology and Geocology), Bucureşti, Romania; (12) CO2GeoNet-IRIS (International Research Institute of Stavanger), Stavanger, Norway

This presentation will consider the latest scientific developments in two key issues for carbon dioxide (CO2) storage: how can sufficient and accessible CO2 storage capacity be assured prior to any investment decision for a large-scale CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) project; and how can CO2 storage be implemented in a manner that is safe for humans and the environment? Assured geological storage capacity that is considered the requirement is key concept for reaching a positive Investment Decision: storage capacity is fundamental to the success of a CCS project. There are a number of recognized methods for estimating storage capacity, ranging from simple volumetric calculations to flow models. Each of these has advantages and disadvantages in terms of accuracy, data requirements and cost. Typically, accuracy of capacity estimates increases throughout the project from screening through to characterization to site development and operation as more data becomes available. Any uncertainties in estimated storage capacities need to be communicated effectively to stakeholders. Data is one of the key issues in assuring storage capacity; the more data defining reservoir characteristics that are available, the more accurate the assessment of storage capacity. Strategies for optimizing the use of available data for storage assessment are emerging from recent projects. Assured capacity, as a characteristic and financial dependency, the cost for accessing the storage capacity needs to be affordable (e.g. with a relatively small number of injectors and located such that the transport distance is not excessive) and storage needs to be permitted by regulations. Flexible storage solutions also raise interesting regulatory issues, for example, how will stacked storage be permitted? Strategic planning for CO2 is required, assessing the national and international energy landscape and considering how to satisfy the requirements of society for affordable, dependable and sustainable energy sources with low greenhouse gas emissions. Strategic planning for geological storage of CO2 is also required to ensure the most efficient use of the subsurface. Early demonstration projects have highlighted the need to allocate sufficient time upstream for thorough geological characterization such that storage sites are available when needed: geological assessment of the potential storage site needs to start during the very early phases of the project and this in turn needs to be built on early, strategic, national assessments. Ensuring that CO2 storage is carried out in a safe manner requires actions at all stages of the CO2 storage lifecycle from thorough pre-injection risk-led geological site characterization to effective monitoring, measurement and verification (MMV) of the site during injection to understanding of long term storage site evolution during the post-injection phase. Models of the storage site need to be iteratively updated as new data and new techniques become available. Thorough site characterization includes testing the reservoir and seal response for CO2, for example, the threshold (capillary entry) pressure for CO2 to enter the cap-rock needs to be determined. Best practice recommendations on understanding how risks to storage site security can be mitigated have been produced by recent projects. Demonstrating the site is behaving as expected through MMV is key to ensuring the CO2 storage site is safe.

New (low cost) monitoring tools specifically designed for use at CO2 storage sites have been developed and new techniques are being tested at lab-scale. For example, techniques and technologies for rapidly detecting and confirming leakage (if it occurs) are being developed and tested as are mitigation and remediation measures. Practical experience gained at pilot and test injection sites allows demonstration of innovative monitoring technologies and strategies as a first step towards new techniques that will be used in the future. Experiments at natural analogue sites are also important in understanding longer-term processes and potential impacts of leakage. Onshore CO2 storage pilot projects offer an opportunity for public engagement as they are relatively easy to access, this can include communication with the general public on the safety of geological storage of CO2 and the role of CCS as a key greenhouse gas mitigation option. Pilot sites also offer the opportunity for site-specific communication activities to interact with the local community, improving public outreach strategies. Communication on geological storage of CO2 is one of the main activities undertaken by CO2GeoNet in its role as a pan-European research association.

## 3307-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3307-01

## How much negative emission is physically needed to keep global warming below 2°C?

T. Gasser (1); P. Ciais (2); C. Guivarch (1); C. Jones (3); K. Tachiiri (4)

(1) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

RCP 2.6 is the only representative climate change scenario produced for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report that likely limits global warming to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels. Following such a scenario needs a strong reduction in the net amount of fossil CO2 released into the atmosphere by humankind. This reduction can be achieved by a combination of «conventional mitigation», i.e. decreasing global fossil-fuel consumption, and «negative emissions», i.e. engineered removal of atmospheric CO2 (the «be through on-site capture and storage» direct air capture, enhancement of natural carbon sinks etc.). As part of the current debate on the role negative emissions might play in reaching the 2°C target, we quantify the trade-off between conventional mitigation and negative emissions in RCP 2.6. We use a three-step approach to do so. First, we take fossil CO2 emission trajectories estimated to be compatible with this scenario using Earth system models. Second, we make assumptions about maximum feasible pathways for conventional mitigation, covering a wide range of possible futures. Third, for each of these pathways, we deduce the gross negative emissions as the complementary amount of carbon that needs to be captured when conventional mitigation alone is not enough to follow the pathway compatible with the RCP2.6 scenario.

If conventional mitigation starts in 2015 at a ~5% yearly rate (our best case), a maximum removal rate of 5 GtCO2/yr and a storage capacity of 550 GtCO2 are required. If conventional mitigation starts in 2030 at ~1% per year (worst case), those requirements are 33 GtC/yr and 4800 GtCO2 respectively. The latter figures range from 250 to 40 GtCO2/yr and from 3500 to 6000 GtCO2 respectively, when accounting for our lack of understanding of the carbon-climate feedback. However, the ultimate product of our study is an abatement where one can make assumptions on future conventional mitigation and read the negative emission requirements – and associated uncertainty – compatible with maintaining global warming below 2°C, as estimated by state-of-the-art Earth system models.

When comparing our mass-balance estimates of gross negative emissions to those by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), our figures fall in the lower end of the range. This logically follows our approach of always choosing conventional mitigation over negative emissions when the mitigation potential allows it. Our approach thus provides a physical lower bound of negative emission requirements for a given mitigation potential. Conversely, in integrated assessments negative emissions may be chosen over conventional mitigation at any time, depending on which
is found more economical to develop under assumed costs and technological potentials. Here, our study does not rely on assumptions about technologies and costs (but on the assumed mitigation potential). Another major difference with studies using IAMS is that ours rely on state-of-the-art Earth system models. Despite the drawback of having to set some drivers exogenously, it allows a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty related to the future response of the carbon-climate system. Here, we show how this concern is that high feedstock potentials between two different mitigation floor assumptions. It emphasizes that the uncertainty surrounding any policy decision from our lack of understanding of the future behavior of the Earth system.

To conclude, we find that negative emissions are required at significant levels (i.e. >1 GtC/yr) even for very aggressive mitigation floors. Given that negative emission technologies are still at an early stage of development, this pleads in favor of developing (financial) mechanisms to put them on a technological learning trajectory. But then, in all but the most optimistic cases, we also find negative emission requirements that have not yet been shown to be achievable: be it the flux of removal or the storage capacity. Following others, this study suggests that negative emissions alone are unlikely to be the panacea that will limit global warming below 2°C, and that conventional mitigation should remain a significant part of any climate policy aiming at this target.

### P-3307-02

## Negative emissions - interactions with other mitigation options

F. Kraxner (1); S. Fuss (2); P. Havlik (1); A. Mosnier (1); S. Leduc (1); P. Yowagana (1)

(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

Many scenarios in IPCC's recent Assessment Report (AR5) find that there is a need for negative emissions in order to stabilize at concentration levels consistent with 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This demand is under present technology assumptions largely covered by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). This concern is that high feedstock potentials are supposed to be located in forests of the southern hemisphere, i.e. in the tropics, which is where at the same time forests are most vulnerable to deforestation. Consequently, a land-based mitigation option such as large-scale bioenergy production (w/o CCS) will interfere with options that are popular for their large co-benefits such as reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Thus, based on a multi-scale bottom-up modeling approach (using an integrated land use model coupled with a global forestry model), this study aims to identify and quantify possible tradeoffs (i.e. land use-based mitigation options compete for the same land) and synergies (i.e. both options provide incentives to keep an intact and sustainably managed forest) between REDD+ and BECCS. The global results elicit the system interactions. However, they do not necessarily shed much light on the situation on the ground. Thus, a regional analysis will be carried out, zooming into Indonesia as an important tropical basin that is assessed with respect to REDD+ and BECCS interactions. This country has been chosen as a pilot region for REDD+BECCS because it looks back at decades of heavy deforestation, has established a strong palm oil sector and its remaining forests face high pressure from agriculture and a relatively developed infrastructure network. Our analysis shows that avoiding deforestation can have many implications for the establishment of sustainable bioenergy. It is therefore imperative to align REDD+ and BECCS strategies in the future for achieving optimal mitigation potentials.

### P-3307-03

## Incentives for the Research, Development and Deployment of Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques

T. Kruger (1)

(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Climate models that achieve the policy objective of limiting warming to less than 2°C do so by assuming not only extremely fast reductions in emissions, but also the deployment of technologies that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at a massive scale. Yet there is no substantive research to validate the assumption that such proposed Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) techniques could be deployed at the scale implied.

This presentation will address the issue of the incentives required for researching, developing and deploying GGR techniques. It will examine the reasons for the current absence of such incentives and explore how the development of a technology that could safely, scalably and economically remove CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it permanently could result in a rational, moral and global carbon price.

### P-3307-04

## Negative emissions in sustainable transition: Which role for bioenergies and CCS?

A. Laude-Depezay (1); X. Galieume (2)

(1) Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Laboratoire GARDARDS, Reims, France; (2) Université d'Orléans, Laboratoire d'économie d'Orléans, Orléans, France

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a technology that aims to capture CO2 coming from static emitters such as coal-fired electric plants, then to transport it by pipelines until a geological reservoir (e.g. saline aquifers), where the CO2 is stored definitively. It is then an "end-of-pipe" technology, so it avoids to release pollution in the environment, but does not change the production process itself, contrary to renewable energies or improved energy efficiency. Besides, CCS needs additional energy - named energy penalty - and could reinforce the current technological lock-in in fossil energy. However, CCS could also allow a rapid decline of emissions on existing production facilities by the end of the century, when alternatives (such as renewable energies will be fully deployed). In this case, the current sociotechnical regime based on fossil energies could be maintained for a while.

BECCS (Bioenergy and Carbon Capture & Storage) is a CCS niche that adds a CCS process on a bioenergy production unit. Industrial sectors such as biofuels, electric generation from biomass (or coal and biomass) or paper production are concerned. BECCS could change the point of view of CCS as a CCS role. In this case, the current sociotechnical regime based on fossil energies could be maintained for a while.

The aim of this paper is then to investigate the specific role of BECCS into the sustainable transition, and more precisely its impact on its timing. This issue has been discussed mainly through Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), which compute the evolution of the worldwide energy system under climate constraint until the end of the century. IAM modeling is one of the main tools used by IPCC for its forecasts and recommendations. It is then widely considered that CCS and BECCS could be key technologies to keep temperature increase below 2°C, especially if worldwide actions are delayed.

We use here a different point of view to deal with this issue: the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP). This conceptual framework analyses transition as a mutation process from one sociotechnical regime to another, under the pressure of macro-level forces (named the landscape), and the emergence of market niches that could provide the basis of the new regime (Geels & Schot, 2007). Here, climate change could be seen as a macro pressure (with economic and social aspects), that requires a deep change of the global energy system, i.e. the socio-technical regime. It is important to point out that both CCS and BECCS remain technological solutions, even if they require policy incentives and social acceptance. According to the
typology of Arundel, Kareva, and Kemp (2011), they belong to the "techno-fix" innovations, while other solutions are available, grounded on changes in user, market, and institutional practices, as Social Innovation (change in social uses) or Transformative Innovations (both changes in social uses and technology). On the contrary "techno-fix" innovations allow preserving past habits and institutional practices through the development of new techniques, and so could contribute to the lock-in effect.

Unlike CCS, BECCS competes no more with renewable energies and could help to get a low-carbon society. Actually, BECCS is likely to become available in the second part of the century. If mitigation is delayed, it could be used to fix an overshoot of CO2 emissions in the first part of the century, thanks to negative emissions. Given the uncertainties regarding CCS and BECCS development, this last strategy could be a dangerous bet (Fuss et al. 2014). Moreover, BECCS concerns involve also biodiversity damages and the risk of higher biomass and food prices. This contribution will discuss more deeply the challenges connected to BECCS until 2100.

## P-3307-05

### Development of Hybrid Coal with Bio-fuel Derived from Non-edible Resources and its Process

Sj. Park (1); JS. Bae (1); YJ. Lee (1); JH. Park (1); JG. Kim (2)  
JH. Park (3); YC. Choi (1)

(1) Korea Institute of Energy Research, Clean Fuel Laboratory, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; (2) Korea Institute of Energy Research, Energy saving laboratory, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; (3) Dongwon Engineering, Ceo, Sihuen, Republic of Korea

The Korean government has implemented energy policies such as RPS and ETS to raise the share of renewable energy sources since 2012. Among the renewable sources, carbon-neutral biomass, particularly solid fuel, is immediately applicable in coal fired power plants, so a number of approaches to utilize bio-fuel by co-combustion with coal have been investigated. Hybrid Coal by Korea Institute of Energy Research (HCK) is a novel fuel for existing coal-fired power plants to cope with implementation of RPS, and we have published several articles related to the diversification of bioliquid to secure its feasibility. Many hydrophilic and hydrophobic bioliques such as glycerol, bio-oils, and oil residues have been applied to saccharide substitutable substances, however crucial limitations of each bioliquid were found. For examples, glycerol having hydrophilic property is eligible to be impregnated in coal pores, which is primarily derived from ash, but moisture readsorption cannot be inhibited since Hybrid Coal with glycerol is not allowed to treat at desired temperature (250°C) for hydrophobicity as our previous work. Also, hydrophobic bioliques like bio-oils and oil residues, unlike hydrophilic ones, cannot penetrate into hydrophilic coal pores, then most of them only coat the surface of coal or partially remain among coal particles. This may cause a decrease in thermal efficiency due to the heat imbalance and higher unburned carbon ratio in a power plant boiler from the difference combustion behavior between coal and biomass, consequently we have concluded saccharide as the best substance to produce Hybrid Coal. However, an ethical problem related to an edible substance might arise if a sugar cane-derived bioliquid is used. In the present paper, Hybrid Coal with bio-fuel (bio-ethanol process) derived from non-edible resources is first investigated to promote its feasibility.

## P-3307-06

### Can we bet on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C stabilization target even under strong carbon cycle feedbacks?

K. Tanaka (1); T. Yokohata (1); Y. Yamagata (1)

(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan

Given the narrowing windows of opportunities to stay below 2°C, negative emission technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (BioCCS) play an ever more crucial role in meeting the 2°C stabilization target endorsed by the Cancun Agreement (Fuss et al. 2014). Negative emission technologies - if deployable at a sufficiently large scale during the second half of this

century - would make the 2°C target more feasible in the midst of the slow political progress and might allow current emissions unchecked for some time if stakeholders are in the process of converging to a platform to abate emissions globally. However, such technologies are currently at their infancy and their future penetrations may fall short of the scale required to stabilize the warming (Scott et al. 2013). Furthermore, the overshoot in the mid-century prior to a full realization of negative emissions would give rise to a risk because such a temporal but excessive warming above 2°C might amplify itself by strengthening climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, which are known to be positive albeit with large uncertainties (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). When one considers other classes of carbon cycle feedbacks including those with permafrost thawing and wildfire, such a risk could be even higher. It has not been extensively assessed yet how carbon cycle feedbacks might play out during the overshoot in the context of negative emissions, while the literature on carbon cycle feedbacks has burgeoned in recent years.

This study explores how 2°C stabilization pathways, in particular those which undergo overshoot, can be influenced by carbon cycle feedbacks and asks their climatic and economic consequences. We compute 2°C stabilization emissions scenarios under a cost-effectiveness principle, in which the total abatement costs are minimized such that the global warming is capped at 2°C. We employ a reduced-complexity model, the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate model (ACC2) (Tanaka et al., 2013), which comprises a box model of the global carbon cycle, simple parameterizations of the atmospheric chemistry, and a land-ocean energy balance model. The total abatement costs are estimated from the Marginal Abatement Cost functions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and BC, which are derived from Azar (2013).

Our preliminary results show that, if carbon cycle feedbacks turn out to be stronger than what is known today, it would incur substantial abatement costs to keep up with the 2°C stabilization goal. Our results also suggest that it would be less expensive in the long run to plan for a 2°C stabilization pathway by considering strong carbon cycle feedbacks because it would cost more if we correct the emission pathway in the mid-century to adjust for unexpectedly large carbon cycle feedbacks during overshoot. Furthermore, our tentative results point to a key policy message: do not rely on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C target. It would make more sense to gear climate mitigation actions toward the stabilization target without betting on negative emissions because negative emissions might create large overshoots in case of strong feedbacks. Our simple approach illuminates a need for investigating this issue further by using a range of models including coupled Earth System Model (ESM)-Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to serve for the framework to be agreed upon in COP21 and maintained beyond.

### References

1. Azar C., et al. (2013) Meeting global temperature targets—the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Environmental Research Letters 8 034004

2. Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate 19 3337–3353

3. Fuss S., et al. (2014) Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change 4 850–853

4. Scott V., et al. (2013) Last chance for carbon capture and storage. Nature Climate Change 3 105–111

5. Tanaka K., et al. (2013) Emission metrics under the 2°C climate stabilization target. Climatic Change 117 933–941

## P-3307-07

### Developments, opportunities and challenges for Bio-CCS in order to achieve negative emissions

S. Van Der Gijp (1)

(1) TNO, Sustainable Geo-Energy, Utrecht, Netherlands

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the only way to decarbonize fossil fuel. Large scale, full-scale demonstration projects such as the one in Boundary Dam Canada prove that this is an effective technology. A
similar technological approach can be taken in the cases of (Co)-firing biomass, biogas production and other biofuel applications, all of which can contribute significantly to a more sustainable energy mix, increased security of supply and a reduction of CO2 emissions. Both combustion and gasification routes to biomass conversion can be equipped with CCS which will result in most cases in a negative CO2 foot print.

First generation biofuels have some crucial limitations. By applying a thermochemical treatment process those limitations can be largely reduced. Typical thermochemical routes include pyrolysis, gasification, torrefaction and biochemical treatments. The products obtained are in most cases a combustible gas, solid char and CO2. The options for electricity and the scale of emissions generated reflect the biomass type and conversion route. Currently the main focus is to improve operational performance such as: - efficiency, power flexibility and a (further) reduction of the emissions.

Large scale biomass combustion is mainly developed for the power companies, as a substitution for coal. Also standalone 250MW e CHP based on biomass pellets has been scrutinized by those companies. So far co-feeding of biomass in coal fired power station has been successfully accomplished at a level of 10-20% weight bases. Biomass polygeneration is based on partial oxidation (indirect gasification). The resulting syngas can be used as a raw material for the production of special chemical products or the production of hydrogen. The syngas can also be used to generate electricity and heat.

The integration with CCS brings with it specific challenges. Clever process integration is required as well as understanding the specific functional requirements. The use of Biomass required specific process conditions and material properties. In addition the use creates new types of impurities in the process and flue gas that :

* causes an increase corrosion (which in its turn affect amongst others the warrantee of the power plant);

* change the generic grid code requirements and more local grid requirements regarding ancillary services (power flexibility);

# 3308 - Fiscal Reform

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3308-01

#### A balance of 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' in linking climate policies

T. Sterner (1)

(1) Univ of Gothenburg, Dept of economics, 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden

'Top-down' climate negotiations embodied by the Kyoto Protocol have all but stalled, chiefly due to disagreements over targets and objections to financial transfers. To avoid those problems, many have shifted their focus to linkage of 'bottom-up' climate policies such as regional carbon markets. This approach is appealing, but we identify four pastaces to successful linkage: different levels of ambition; competing domestic policy objectives; objections to financial transfers; and the difficulty of close regulatory coordination. Even with a more decentralized approach, overcoming the 'global warming gridlock' of the intergovernmental negotiations will require close international coordination. We demonstrate how a balance of 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' elements can create a path toward an effective global climate architecture.

### K-3308-02

#### Do Chinese provinces successfully implement climate mitigation policies? A political economy approach

P. Motel-Combes (1) ; JL. Combes, (1) ; M. Fodha, (2) ; MF. Renard, (3) ; S. Zhang, (4)

(1) University of Avrupa, School of Economics – CERDI, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (2) University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne, Pse, Paris, Avrupa, School of economics – cerdi – idrec, Clermont-Ferrand,

* have an effect on the requirements of the CO2 capture solvent;

* have a severe impact on the economics and

* finally the different operation modes compared to traditional fossil fuel large scale power plants has an implication on the downstream CO2 infrastructure, transport, use and storage.

The EERA joined program on CCS serves as platform to share the outcomes of research of the leading research entities in Europe and their program leads the way in the future joined development of Bio-CCS.

### P-3307-08

#### From scenarios to reality - key issues with upscaling BECCS

N. Vaughan (1) ; C. Gough (2)

(1) University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) University of Manchester, Tyndall centre for climate change research, Manchester, United Kingdom

Substantial amounts of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are used in the majority of emissions scenarios directed at limiting climate change to 2°C. The feasibility of these scenarios is an important concern for climate policy. We used an expert elicitation methodology to explore the key explicit and implicit assumptions that underlie the use of BECCS to deliver so- called negative emissions. The process highlighted key interlinked issues surrounding land availability, land use and land policy; timing of technology and infrastructure developments; and policy incentives, verification and social acceptability. Whilst there was agreement over the potential for BECCS to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and produce energy, claims to its capacity are potentially being over-relied upon and overstretched under the policy pressure to generate emissions scenarios that meet a 2°C limit.

France: (4) Peking University, College of environmental sciences and engineering, Peking, China

China is expected to be a major actor in the design of a new global climate architecture. Its non-participation could lead to a substantial increase in GHGs concentrations by the end of 21st century (Paltsev et al. 2012). China has already managed to cut CO2 emissions in several energy intensive industries and is now endowed with good technological and scientific capacities (Rock et al. 2013). The central government has fostered the implementation of environmental policies which are now a priority of the new Chinese growth model. It has been however recognized that China's climate governance can further be improved regarding the coordination of national and provincial levels (Richerzhagen & Scholz 2008). This paper precisely intends to add to the debate between top-down and bottom-up approaches of climate mitigation policies in the context of China.

Indeed, the efficiency of climate policies in China is challenged by strong spatial i.e. provincial disparities. Provincial environmental characteristics are very different considering climate, geography, population densities, as well as urbanization and for instance, there is a very large diversity of energy intensity between provinces. The geographical distribution of China's energy intensity exhibits a characteristic of progressive increases from the eastern coastal provinces to the western provinces (Yu 2012). One of the most striking features of China is its decentralized organization and the strong power devoted to provincial governments. The leading officials have mainly focused on economic growth targets (Combes, Renard, Tapsoba, 2015) but environmental objectives are written in their responsibility contracts for few years. Local leaders sign individual responsibility contracts that embed energy or emission reduction requirements for their localities. The central government gives priorities at the national level and then assigns specific targets for the different levels (Kostka 2014).

This paper contributes to the understanding of provincial
climate mitigation policies and its aim is twofold. First an original index of climate regulation is calculated. It is devoted to the measurement of "revealed" efforts made by provinces aiming at downsizing GHGs emissions. This effort index is estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors of CO2 emissions through a standardization equation. Second, an econometric analysis allows to a better understanding of the determinants of provincial climate policies. Policy implications are related to the need for more coordination between bottom-up and top-down policies to increase the efficiency of current practices. As the burden on provincial and national budgets may be very heavy, the choice of the level of implementation is a strong political constraint and need information on the provinces' efforts.

### References

Combes, J.L. Renard, M-F. & Tapsoba, J., 2015. Central government versus provincial governments in China: which determinants for cyclicality of the fiscal policy? Mideo

Kostka, G., 2014. Barriers to the Implementation of Environmental Policies at the Local Level in China, Washington D.C.: The World Bank.

Paltsev, S. et al., 2012. The role of China in mitigating climate change. Energy Economics, 34, Supplement 3, p.S444 S450.

Richerzhagen, C. & Scholz, I., 2008. China's Capacities for Mitigating Climate Change. World Development, 36(2), p.308 324.

Rock, M.T. et al., 2013. Technological learning, energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in China's energy intensive industries, Washington D.C.: The World Bank.

Yu, H., 2012. The influential factors of China's regional energy intensity and its spatial linkages: 1988-2007. Energy Policy, 45, p.583 593.

## K-3308-03

# A public finance perspective on climate policy: Six interactions that may enhance welfare

L. Mattauch, (1); J. Siegmeier, (1); M. Franks, (2); D. Klenert, (2); (2); A. Schultes, (2); O. Edenhofer (3)

(1) Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; (3) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Climate change economics mostly neglects sizeable interactions of carbon pricing with other fiscal policy instruments. Conversely, public finance typically overlooks the effects of future decarbonization efforts when devising instruments for the major goals of fiscal policy. We argue that such a compartmentalisation is undesirable: policy design taking into account such interdependencies may enhance welfare and change the distribution of mitigation costs within and across generations. This claim is substantiated by analyzing six interactions between climate policy and public finance that are insufficiently explored in current research: (i) reduced tax competition in an open economy, (ii) portfolio effects induced through climate policy, (iii) restructuring public spending, (iv) revenue recycling for productive public investment, (v) greater intergenerational equity through appropriate revenue recycling and (vi) intergenerational Pareto-improvements through intertemporal transfers. We thereby structure the hitherto identified interactions between climate change mitigation and public finance and show that jointly considering carbon pricing and fiscal policy is legitimate and mandatory for sound policy appraisal.

## K-3308-04

# Environmental Tax Reform and Heterogeneous Labor Markets: Can the Trade-Off between Environmental Quality, Efficiency and Income Distribution been Avoided?

M. Chirolek-Assouline (1); D. Aubert (2)

(1) Paris School of Economics & University Paris 1 & INRA, Paris, France; (2) Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France

This paper investigates the distributional and efficiency

consequences of an environmental tax reform, when the revenue of the green tax is recycled by a variation of labor tax rates. We build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous imperfect labor markets, pollution consumption externalities, and where poor households spend relatively more on polluting goods than rich households (Stone-Geary preferences). We characterize the necessary conditions for the obtainment of the environmental and welfare dividends and we analyze the distributional properties of the green tax. We show that even in the case where the reform appears to be regressive, the gains from the double dividend can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive non-linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. Moreover, the use of a non-linear income tax acts on unemployment and can moderate the trade-off between equity and efficiency. We finally provide simulations highlighting the room for manoeuvre for environmental tax reforms for the French case.

## K-3308-05

# A Carbon tax and the Risk of Inequality

E. Combet (1)

(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRE), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

This paper aims at clearing up some misunderstandings about the social impacts of carbon taxes that proved to be a decisive obstacle to their further consolidation in public debates. It highlights the gap between the cost of a carbon tax reform as it is spontaneously perceived by the taxpayers and the reality of its ultimate consequences: the real impact on households' poverty and inequalities is not mechanically determined by the initial burden of energy on consumption budgets and by the capacity of households to alleviate it, but also depends upon the use made of the tax proceeds and its general macroeconomic impacts. The comparison of five tax-recycling schemes highlights the existence of trade-offs between maximising total consumption, reducing unemployment, maximising the consumption of the low-income classes and reducing income inequality.

## K-3308-06

# Modelling of distributional impacts of energy subsidy reforms: an illustration with Indonesia

L. Campagnolo (1); J. Chateau (2); R. Dellink (2); O. Durand-Lasserve (2)

(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei & Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy; (2) OECD, Paris, France

Indonesia highly subsidises the consumption of electricity and oil products for both households and firms, and in 2011 it was ranked the 10th country in the world in terms of total government expenditures on fossil fuel consumption subsidies (IEA, 2012). The energy subsidies represent a burden for government budget, a source of vulnerability for the economy and perform badly in terms of redistribution. Furthermore, fuel subsidies, by encouraging fossil-fuel burning, increase GHG emissions and local air pollution. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of fossil-fuel subsidy reform phase out in Indonesia, both at macro and micro level, with particular attention to distributional effects on households heterogeneous in terms of income structures and expenditure patterns. On this purpose, we combine a micro-level representation of households' incomes and consumption with a macroeconomic model. We enhance the dynamic global and multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, OECD ENV-Linkages (Chateau et al., 2014), by directly integrating a module describing the behaviour of more than 10,000 representative household groups for Indonesia. In the other regions, the final consumers are portrayed by a single representative household. The characteristics of the representative household in terms of preferences and endowments are based on national accounting data. The multi-household representation for Indonesia is based on integrating and reconciling this macroeconomic information with data from the fourth edition of the "Indonesia Family Life Survey" (IFLS4) realised in 2007 (Strauss et al., 2009).

The baseline scenario follows the macroeconomic projections of the OECD Economic Outlook and the
corresponding long-term projections (Chateau et al., 2014). All the energy policies included in the Current Policy Scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2013 (IEA, 2013) are considered except the reforms to the consumers' energy subsidies that remain at their 2011 levels. In the policy scenarios, we assume that, between 2012 and 2020, Indonesia unilaterally realises a gradual phase out of electricity and fossil fuel subsidies for households and firms. The scenarios differ by the budget-neutral compensating scheme for households they assume: cash transfers, subsidies on food products, and labour income support. An additional policy scenario envisions a global multilateral subsidy phase out and a cash transfers compensating scheme.

All the scenarios give way to positive impacts on GDP at the 2020 horizon (+0.4% to +0.7% in 2020 with respect to the baseline) due to a decrease in the deadweight loss associated with the subsidies and also, in some scenarios, to higher savings and investment. The cash transfer scenario (both unilateral and multilateral) determines the highest GDP outcome. The gains in terms of Equivalent Variation are even higher due to trade improvements consecutive to the reform, and range between 0.8% and 1.4% in 2020. The distributive direct effect of fuel price increase is regressive for households. The effects through labour and non-labour incomes are more or less distribution neutral. However, the redistribution schemes can make the total effect of the reform progressive and pro-poor. The cash transfer scenario is the most progressive among the scenarios investigated. The budget redistribution using food subsidies is less progressive than with cash transfers. Transfers proportional to labour income, as used in the labour support scenario, are regressive because the incomes from formal labour represent a higher proportion of total incomes for high-income households than for low-income households. The reform outcomes are also heterogeneous across rural and urban areas: the cash transfer and the food subsidy scenarios are more beneficial to rural than to urban households due to the lower share of energy expenditures in rural areas. The labour support scenario, in contrast, is less beneficial to the rural households, because of the greater importance of the informal sector in these areas.

The phase out of energy consumption subsidies contributes to reduce in energy-related CO2 emissions (between -10% and -12%) and GHG emissions (between -7.3% and -8.3%) in 2020 compared with the baseline. The emission reduction is mainly driven by a decrease of household energy consumption.

## 3308-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3308-01

#### Optimal Environmental Taxation with Capital Mobility

G. Schwerhoff (1) ; M. Franks, (1)

(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Climate policy exemptions for energy intensive sectors are often justified with distributional concerns. One concern is that households employed in energy intensive sectors might be affected disproportionately due to capital mobility.

We find that when workers cannot move freely between sectors, a uniform carbon tax causes more inequality between the sectors when capital is mobile than when it is not. Since households benefit more directly from sector-specific labor taxes, than from carbon tax exemptions, the former are more effective in addressing the distributional wedge caused by capital mobility. In addition, we find that the differential effect of capital mobility depends on the government's degree of inequality aversion. Redistribution is more expensive when capital is mobile, so that highly inequality aversion governments might even be better off without capital mobility.

How should a government take capital mobility into account when designing climate policy? There is a strong concern that climate policy affects energy intensive sectors disproportionately when capital is mobile. This motivates policy exemptions for these sectors. Papers, considering exemptions, usually consider one representative household. They find that exemptions are not optimal and conclude that carbon taxes should be uniform across sectors. In this paper we consider sector-specific policy as a means of addressing the sector-specific distributional effects created by the interaction of climate policy and capital mobility.

We build a model with two sectors of different energy intensity. To reflect the distributional concern we assume sectoral rigidity in labor mobility. The government maximizes a social welfare function which aggregates utility of the households working in the two sectors. The environmental objective is to reduce domestic carbon emissions, motivated for example by the objective to fulfill a carbon reduction target. We then compare the effect of environmental policy with and without capital mobility. We find that indeed climate policy introduces a bigger difference in utility of the households employed in the two sectors when capital is mobile. Based on this we determine the optimal policy package for reconciling distributional and environmental objectives. We find three major results.

The first result is that sector specific labor taxes are the most suitable instrument to redistribute among the sectors. Sector specific carbon taxes can indeed be justified, but the difference should be very small. In optimum, redistribution between sectors is mainly achieved through relatively large differences in labor taxes. When labor taxes are optimally differentiated between sectors, the difference between utility of the households employed in the different sectors is much smaller than in the case where labor taxes are constrained to be uniform.

The second result is that the reaction of the government depends strongly on its inequality aversion. A utilitarian government achieves a higher welfare under capital mobility since it benefits from the gains of (capital) trade. A strongly inequality adverse government faces high cost of countering the inequality increasing effect of climate policy under capital mobility. The cost of redistribution might be so high that it could even be better off without capital mobility.

The third result is that climate policy creates a greater difference between capital and labor income under capital mobility than in autarky. The government's ability to counter this shift through labor tax cuts is weakened through capital mobility since the reduced demand for pollution means that carbon tax revenues are lower under capital mobility than in autarky.

## 3309 - Costs and benefits of adaptation: Lessons from developed and developing countries

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3309-01

#### The Cost and Benefits of Adaptation in Developing Countries: Updated Review and Insights for Policy

P. Watkiss (1) ; A. Hunt, (2) ; M. Lago, (3) ; J. Rouillard, (4) ; J. Troeltzsch, (3)

(1) Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom; (3) Ecologic Institut, Berlin, Germany; (4) Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Germany

This paper presents the findings of a major review and synthesis on the costs and benefits of adaptation in developing countries, undertaken by the ECONADAPT project, funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 603906*, and with co-funding from the UK Department for International Development and by the International
While recent reviews (IPCC, 2014) have identified a low evidence base in this area, the last few years have seen a growing number of national initiatives and risk and sector specific studies. Over 500 relevant studies have been identified, and a growing number of these are in developing countries. The paper presents a review of this evidence base, focusing on estimates and insights for least developed and middle income countries. It starts with a mapping of studies, both geographically and by risk. This shows the coverage of adaptation costs and benefits has increased when compared to previous reviews. The geographical coverage now includes Africa, South and Central America and Asia, though there remain some important regional gaps. The coverage of risks has also increased: there is a very large literature on coastal zone adaptation, and increasing studies on water management, floods and agriculture. Major gaps remain, however, for ecosystems and business/industry.

The paper then summarises a detailed review of this evidence base and draws some policy lessons, using examples. From a policy perspective, there are now three distinct set of studies, using different methods. The first uses scenario-based impact assessment (I-A) and focuses on technical adaptation. The second uses investment and financial flow analysis (IFF) and considers likely mark-ups for adaptation. The final use the more recent focus on iterative risk management, low-regret options and decision making under uncertainty. The outputs of these approaches are very different in terms of framing and importantly the types of adaptation options. They also produce very different estimates of the costs (and benefits) of adaptation, which of particular importance in relation to national adaptation Plans and international climate finance. A key finding is that IFF studies indicate higher costs in the short-term, due to the consideration of the existing adaptation deficit, while policy orientated studies indicate higher adaptation costs in the medium- to longer term, due to the consideration of multiple risks, uncertainty, existing policy objectives and standards, and additional opportunity, transaction and policy costs.

The paper concludes with some key policy findings and future research needs. The latter includes the need for more empirical evidence at multiple time and spatial scales, and economic analysis of adaptive capacity, non-technical measures, opportunity, transaction and policy costs, cross-sectoral/cross-cutting effects and the limits of adaptation. Further work is also needed to understand transferability of existing estimates. A key priority is to further encourage the sharing of information and good practice.

Chamberwa, M., G. Heal, et al (2014): Economics of adaptation. In: *Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 945-977.

*The views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. The European Community is not liable for any use made of this information.

**Co-funding was provided by: i) UK DFID, as part of the project 'Early Value-for-Money Adaptation: Delivering VfM Adaptation' using Iterative Frameworks and Low-Regret Options' - this project has been funded by UK aid from the UK government; however the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies; ii) IDRC as part of the project 'The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development' - however the views expressed are entirely those of the study team and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDRC.

## K-3309-02

# Climate change adaptation: linking policy and economics in OECD countries

M. Mullan (1) ; S. Buckle (1)

(1) OECD, Environment Directorate, Paris, France

This presentation will summarise the key findings of a forthcoming OECD publication on the Economics of Adaptation in OECD countries (released end May 2015),

including a survey of these countries. By drawing upon policy-makers' experiences to date, this presentation will examine how economic analysis has informed policy development to date, and priority areas for further data gathering and tool development.

OECD countries are increasingly taking action to prepare for the effects of climate change. As of 2014, more than three-quarters of countries have already started to develop national strategies for climate change adaptation. In preparing for climate change, countries are faced with the challenge of responding to a broad range of uncertain risks. The common element of their response is the emphasis on mainstreaming adaptation into government policies, with a focus upon capacity building. Based on the analysis in this paper, the following priorities emerge for evidence development and improved tools for economic analysis:

* Reducing barriers to usage: Increasingly sophisticated approaches have been developed to account for uncertainty about climate impacts, often in the context of large infrastructure investments. However, countries' experiences show that mainstreaming requires integration with existing appraisal systems for decision-making, and 'light touch' approaches that are proportionate to the scale of the decision at hand

* Achieving sufficient breadth of coverage: The evidence base on costs and benefits has significantly improved in recent years, as sectoral and national coverage has increased. However, major gaps remain in sectoral coverage. For example, impacts on businesses and ecosystems remain poorly understood. Modelling of macroeconomic interactions remains at an early stage. More evidence on these areas is needed to develop coherent responses to a changing climate

* Accounting for the distributional and normative dimension of climate change: Economic analysis provides an important input into the decision-making process, but it is also necessary to account for people's perceptions of the risks from climate change. In part, this is because decisions on how to respond to the risks from climate change frequently involve trade-offs between different values. In addition, the impacts of climate change will be felt most severely by the poor and the marginalised. Few studies based on OECD countries have accounted for these impacts to date.

## K-3309-03

# Global challenge and regional analysis – Germany's vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

U. Lehr (1) ; T. Drosdowski, (1) ; A. Nieters, (1)

(1) Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung, Institute for Economic Structures Research, Energy and Climate, Osnabrueck, Germany

## Overview

Although climate change is a global challenge, the effects occur locally and differ by region. The large timespan and the globality of climate change often obscure rather than clarify the discussion. Germany is located in a moderate climate zone; nevertheless it is vulnerable to disruptions due to its economic dependence on high-tech production sites. The largest disturbances come from extreme weather events. Global warming not only changes the climate conditions, but its effects also challenge the way we are used to model economic development and economic growth. Dealing with this calls for climate change adaptation, and adaptation of our models to be able to simulate climate change effects as well. A feasible adaptation strategy will be developed by local decision makers, and thus needs to assess regional impacts of climate change and the socio-economic effects resulting from changing climate conditions. This contribution is based on findings from a study within the German Framework Programme "Economics of Climate Change".

## Methods

The authors have applied an input-output-based macro economic-model, adjusting it to cope with the (1) challenges of damages from extreme weather events and (2) adaptation failures. In addition, infrastructure damages shifts from domestic production to imports, low levels of productivity due to heat waves, and adaptation measures
are some of the topics the paper deals with. Crude data is the largest challenge we have to cope with. Results are obtained by a comparison of three scenarios – one with and one without considering extreme weather events, and finally a third one allowing for adaptation measures. These results are differences in the values of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, exports, investment and employment as well as sector specific variables. For instance employment on the level of different economic sectors is an important indicator for the design of the appropriate adaptation measures.

## Results

Extreme weather events exert slightly negative effects on economic sectors and Germany's economy as a whole. These effects intensify over time and hurt the economy. Adaptation measures reduce the damages and pay off, but the economy is still worse off with climate change. The paper provides details for economic sectors and the total economy.

## Conclusion

The research on the feasibility of the IO type macroeconomic model for the analysis of extreme weather events has shown that it is necessary to rethink some of the empirical evidence on reaction equations in a time series based model to model extremes in the future.

Given that Germany is in a moderately affected region, the larger challenges for an open economy as the German, will lie in climate change along the international value chain. A German adaptation strategy must consider this.

## O-3309-01

### Economic evaluation on the impact and cost effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies in crop production systems (using Structural Ricardian and Decision model): Case of Northern Shewa, Ethiopia

#### N. Mekonnenn (1)

(1) Ethiopian Economic Policy Reserach Institute, Poverty and Agriculture and Development Division, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Introduction and problems: To respond to the possible impacts of climate change smallerholder farmers have been using different adaptation strategies, some of the major adaptation strategies in the Woreda include use of improved variety/early maturing, use of disease tolerant crops, use of irrigation, increased use of fertilizer, use of soil and water conservation techniques, water harvesting, constructing flood control, building wind breaks etc (ibid). However, we hardly know about the economic impact of climate change adaption strategies in smallholders many of the literatures. In addition, given the limited coping capacity and resource constraint to further make investment on different adaptation strategies, we know very little about cost effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies in smallerholder's crop production system. The significant part of literature on climate change adaption focus on the determinants of adaptation strategies rather than the economic impact of adaptation strategies and their cost effectiveness at farm level.

Objectives: The general objective of this study is to identify policy relevant issues about the impact and cost effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholders and by way to contribute to climate resilient agricultural development. The specific objectives of the study are: 1) To assess the economic impact of climate change adaptation strategies in the selected study area 2) To conduct cost effectiveness analysis on climate change adaptation strategies in smallerholder's crop production system.

Methods: The data for the research was obtained from the survey of 350 Households in two districts of North Shewa zonal in 2014. The sample households were selected randomly. The sample size in each district was determined based on probability proportion to size. The districts included in the survey were Yaya Gullel, Hidha Aboe and Derra districts. The specific study sites within the districts were 18 Kebeles. A structured questionnaire was used to interview the farmers. In addition, the research employed review of secondary data at zonal level (clamite data, agriculture production data etc).

Economic Models and result: A Decision support model and a structural Ricardian model were used to estimate the economic impact of climate change adaption strategies on smallholders and the cost effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. Thus, a comparison was also made between different adaptation strategies practiced by smallerholder farmers.

The econometric results of the analysis show that adaptation to CC plays significant role in boosting food production and farm level income. In addition, the fact that the adaptation variable is positive and significant in the estimates of production model indicates that adoption of yield related adaptation strategies have vital importance in terms of ensuring food security in rural households. On the other hand, the cost effectiveness analysis (cost effectiveness ratio) using the decision support model show that while some strategies like rain water harvesting, river diversion, use of disease tolerant crops are economically preferred strategies others are not.

### Recommendation:

* If the interest of the farmers lay on the achieving Climate change at the 'least cost' then provision of rain water harvesting, river diversion, use of disease tolerant crops would be the preferred cost-saving strategy

* If the farmers objective focused on "averting climate change impact", then increasing the acceptance rate of "the provision of improved crop varieties and fertilizer use" to 62% and more should be the economical preferred strategy as compared to the other alternatives

* National adaption programs should be designed and local adaptation measures should also be contextually be introduced at smallerholder's level so as that adaptation strategies can improve food production and farmers income under climate.

## O-3309-02

### Climate Change and China's Agriculture: Impact and Adaptation

#### H. Jikun (1); J. Wang (1); X. Wei (1)

(1) Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

China's agricultural sector is expected to face challenges in the future mainly due to rising food demand and constraints of land and water, which will be worsened by impacts of climate change. Understanding the impact of and adaptation to climate change on agriculture is critically important for climate change policy. Acknowledging the large number of studies on climate change in the literature, the overall goal of this paper is to provide additional evidence on the impacts of and adaptation to climate change on agriculture in China.

Both econometric analysis and general equilibrium modeling are applied to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. The direct impacts on major crop yields are empirically estimated using provincial data collected over the past three decades. The impacts of severe drought and flood from extreme weather events on grain production are estimated based on a large scale farm survey in 9 provinces. The indirect impact of climate change on market price response is simulated using an integrated impact assessment model under different scenarios. We identified adaptation measures taken by local governments, communities, and farmers for reducing climate risk. A case study of primary surveys that include 3330 households from 330 villages in 9 provinces, and assessed which are the major factors that facilitate farmers to implement these measures. We also assessed the effectiveness of different measures in reducing climate risk on crop production.

Econometric results show that the effects of temperature and precipitation on crop yields are statistically significant though they differ largely among crops. Increasing temperature has a negative impact on the yield of several major crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugar, though it also has a moderate positive impact on maize and rapeseed yield. However, decreasing precipitation reduces the yields of most crops. The simulation results show that overall impact of climate change on agricultural production is negative, but much less so than the direct
impact, because of responses from producers and consumers to changes in agricultural prices due to climate change. Moreover, if we consider the impacts of climate change in the rest of the world that affect China's trade and therefore domestic production, climate change impact on China's agricultural production will be further reduced.

Empirical results also show that there is a wide range of measures that can reduce the risks. Most of these measures are related to the water sector (e.g., water infrastructure) and farm management (e.g., crop or variety diversification, irrigation practices, adjusting field operation, etc.). Econometric analysis shows that public extension service (e.g., the provisions of early warning and prevention information), policy support (e.g., financial and technical support) against extreme weather events, and household assets such as households' social capital and wealth can improve the ability of farmers in adapting

to climate change. Several major measures in the water sector and farm management significantly reduce average crop yield loss and variance of crop yield due to extreme weather events.

This study concludes with several policy implications. While China's agricultural sector will face greater challenges under climate change, there are a number of measures—particularly those related to the water sector, farm management, and agricultural markets—that can reduce the impact of climate change. As most of these measures are not new, enhancing the above measures in crops and regions that are adversely affected by climate risks and including this enhancement as one of major investment priorities in agricultural development programs are critically important in developing climate adaptation plans and policies.

# 3310 - Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities?

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-3310-01

#### Climate finance at scale: Overview of issues

TE. Downing (1); H. Mcleod (2)

(1) Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) KPMG, London, United Kingdom

Climate finance is essential to reducing climate risks, and is at the heart of the UNFCCC's climate regime. Engagement with the private sector goes beyond the expectation of finance for public funds or protection against expected losses and damages. Transformation of climate resilience requires leadership in a range of private sector forms of investment and sustainability. Emerging examples of how research has informed improved access to climate finance address fundamental questions. How can research inform private sector investments in adaptation? What are the barriers limiting the scaling up of successful pilot interventions? How can adaptation plans of implementing entities be informed by research? What is the business proposition for private sector investment?

### O-3310-01

#### Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities

A. Atteridge (1)

(1) Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden

Climate finance is essential to reducing climate risks, and is at the heart of the UNFCCC's climate regime where developed countries have pledged to mobilize US$100 billion of climate finance per year from 2020 onwards. In parallel this year, the Post-2015 process to negotiate the Sustainable Development Goals, the Financing for Development Conference in Addis Ababa, and the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction will also agree on new financial commitments and/or principles for providing support to developing countries. While the question of how to mobilise funds is crucial, the equally important question of how to ensure their effective use has been given far less attention. At present, these different flows are governed and delivered separately, across a fragmented finance architecture, and this among other factors creates problems for using limited financial resources effectively. There is scope for much greater alignment of international public finance for development, climate change and other goals (such as for disaster risk reduction or environmental management), and yet also challenges to achieving greater alignment. What are the opportunities for post-2015 governance of climate finance in this broader context?

### O-3310-02

#### Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities?

R. Mechler (1); T. Schinko (2)

(1) IIASA, Risk, Policy, Vulnerability, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) IIASA, Risk, Policy, and Vulnerability Program, Laxenburg, Austria

Climate finance is essential to reducing climate risks, and is at the heart of the UNFCCC's climate regime where developed countries have pledged to mobilize US$100 billion of climate finance per year from 2020 onwards. In parallel this year, the Post-2015 process to negotiate the Sustainable Development Goals, the Financing for Development Conference in Addis Ababa, and the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction will also agree on new financial commitments and/or principles for providing support to developing countries. While the question of how to mobilise funds is crucial, the equally important question of how to ensure their effective use has been given far less attention. At present, these different flows are governed and delivered separately, across a fragmented finance architecture, and this among other factors creates problems for using limited financial resources effectively. There is scope for much greater alignment of international public finance for development, climate change and other goals (such as for disaster risk reduction or environmental management), and yet also challenges to achieving greater alignment. What are the opportunities for post-2015 governance of climate finance in this broader context?

Engagement with the private sector goes beyond the expectation of finance for public funds or protection against expected losses and damages. Transformation of climate resilience requires leadership in a range of private sector forms of investment and sustainability. Lessons learned in working with both large companies and SMEs highlights emerging good practise as well as major challenges for public-private cooperation.

The Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism holds high appeal for transforming both adaptation and mitigation, yet requires solid science-based information to become actionable. Research around the concept of climate risk management focuses on: (i) climate justice for the Loss & Damage Mechanism; (ii) climate risk management from different perspectives (objective, perceived, idealized risk), and the implications for the Loss&Damage debate; (iii) the potential for risk layering as a framework for operationalizing climate risk management including insurance and a possible extreme climate risk layer, and (iv) attribution of losses to anthropogenic climate change and potentially robust results.

Emerging examples of how research has informed improved access to climate finance address questions such as: How can research inform private sector investments in adaptation? What are the barriers limiting the scaling up of successful pilot interventions? How can adaptation plans of implementing entities be informed by research? What is the business proposition for private sector investment?

### O-3310-03

#### Impact Investing and unlocking Private Sector finance for climate change adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa

N. Thaven (1)
(1) Climate Technology Initiative - Private Finance Advisory Network, Winterton, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa

There is growing consensus that with even the most rigorous efforts to mitigate climate change it is likely that we will have to adapt to a changing climate, and that the countries least responsible for causes will bear the greatest burden. The cost estimates for adaptation vary, with more recent estimates indicating a three-fold increase in the finance required. Despite the variance, it is clear that current sources of public finance fall far short of the required resources, and that the private sector has a role to play in providing some of the required finance.

The private sector however has its own requirements for investment and many adaptation projects will not be able to respond to the return on investment, stage of development or scale requirements of investors. CTI PFAN, the Climate Technology Initiative's Private Finance Advisory Network has shown its ability to raise private sector finance for climate change mitigation, having raised in the region of $600 million to date. It is now trying to replicate this success for adaptation, supported by IDRC, and at its last Investor Forum in Johannesburg in November 2014, was able to showcase adaptation projects from Africa which have the ability to respond to some of the demands of private sector finance, with projects from multiple sectors, including water, agriculture, real estate, tourism and microfinance, at various stages of development, and various scales. Twelve projects were showcased to investors, each of which represents both public and private goods, but with in-built social and environmental credentials.

There are trillions of dollars being invested annually by the private sector and the growing call for responsible investment is part of the stimulus for the growing sector of Impact Investing. Organizations such as "100% Impact," have shown that pure impact investments have the ability to match the returns of conventional investments. Whether the investment community is aware of project categorization as mitigation, adaptation or just good development is a moot point.

The Impact Investment community represents a high potential source of private sector finance for supporting adaptation actions if the adaptation projects can demonstrate their ability to quantify their impact. The current CTI PFAN adaptation work is thus paired with a research component, managed by the Frankfurt School, which, amongst other issues such as an assessment of the policy environments and risk analysis is also looking at the metrics of adaptation.

To secure some of these private sector funds for adaptation activities, the relationship between adaptation projects and the impact investment community needs to grow, and there are four key issues which the current CTI PFAN project aims to address to achieve this:

1. The development of a pipeline of investment grade projects;

2. The leveraging of public funds to generate investment tipping points and to create a market of these types of investments;

3. Mechanisms to bring these projects into view so that they become part of the available options for investment;

4. Developing metrics for assessing adaptation activities.

## O-3310-04

### Private finance for adaptation: do private realities meet public ambitions?

P. Pauw (1)

(1) German Development Institute, DIE, Bonn, Germany

The private sector's role in climate finance is increasingly subject to political and scientific debate. Yet there is poor empirical evidence of private finance for adaptation and its potential contribution to the industrialised countries' mobilisation of USD 100 billion of annual climate finance from 2020 onwards to support developing countries to address climate change. Building on earlier research (e.g. on the private sector's role in adaptation in NAPAs and Zambia's agricultural sector), we will present a paper on an analysis of 101 case studies of private sector adaptation

under the Private Sector Initiative (PSI) of the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme. The case studies are examined against ten 'adaptation finance criteria' that were distilled from UN climate negotiation outcomes.

Results show that private adaptation interventions complement public adaptation activities all over world, including in priority sectors in developing countries such as agriculture and agriculture, and that the UNFCCC adaptation finance criteria are in line, which demonstrates that the diplomatic UNFCCC conceptualisation of adaptation finance is dissonant from the private sector reality. For example, only a minority of the case studies takes place in the prioritised 'most vulnerable developing countries. And while the case studies' investments are 'new and additional' to Official Development Assistance (ODA), their 'predictability' remains unclear. And despite some commitment for 'up-scaling' plans and associated costs for doing so remain undisclosed. Developed countries' role in 'mobilising' private financial resources under the PSI seems limited.

The presenters will provide options for minor improvements to bring the private realities closer to public ambitions. Yet it is unrealistic to expect that the UNFCCC alters existing adaptation finance criteria to suit private sector financing in the private sector and aligns its initiatives to meet the UNFCCC criteria. We therefore advocate strict monitoring and reporting only of private investments that principally aims to finance adaptation. This practical way forward would allow private finance to meet criteria such as predictability, transparency, and mobilisation, but would drastically reduce the amount of private investment that could contribute to reaching the USD 100 billion climate finance target, which would have major political implications.

## 3310-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3310-01

### Missed Targets, Missed Opportunities! Lessons from tracking Adaptation Financing for Zambia

P. Mbozi (1)

(1) University of Zambia, Institute of Economic and Social Research, lusaka, Zambia

Who funds and who benefits from climate change adaptation (CCA) funds in Zambia? This was main question that a study commissioned by the Zambia Climate Change Network wanted answered. The study set out to map, track and analyze both domestic and foreign financial flows to CCA, as part of the global Adaptation Finance Tracking Initiative (AFTI). The goal was to improve CSO advocacy for transparency, accountability, participation and ownership of programming and financing for CCA and resilience in Zambia and help address identified institutional and structural constraints to the effective delivery of climate finance to intended beneficiary constituencies. The experience would be used strengthen tools to track and monitor adaptation and resilience finance flows from a multitude of sources down to the local level and for South-to-South learning. The study focused primarily on seven sectors which are targets of climate proofing and the extent to which these funds trickled down to the beneficiary target groups. The methodology involved review of secondary data sources including the National Budgets (Yellow Book), and sought primary information through interviews with ZCCN members, stakeholders, community leaders and local people and community based organizations at district level.

The study established three windows of financing CCA programmes in Zambia. National resources: 2. Donor funds through budget support: 3. Direct programme or project support from the donors: and, 4. CSO funds from donors either through the Civil Society Environment Fund (CSEF) or through bilateral agreements between a donor or donors and a particular NGO. The study notes that funding for CCA is donor driven, with government contributing less than 1% of the total expenditure to the seven sectors; lack of prioritization for CCA; negligible and fluctuating funding; and, less CCA funds compared to other climate finance, including budgeted funds and actual disbursements is noted, including among donor finances. Lack of government policy on climate
change affects climate change financing, resulting in budget variations from year to year and lack of a budget line specifically for CCA especially for grass- root activities. Most funds go to upstream activities - salaries, workshops, etc. and CCA is lumped together with environment and other CC interventions, such as mitigation, in the national budgets. This makes it difficult to track CCA funds and it explains why there are no visible CCA activities on the ground. The study also notes rigidity in budget lines to accommodate emerging issues, such as CCA and limited absorptive capacities among recipient sectors, resulting in variances between disbursed and utilized funds. The study found that stakeholders and ordinary people, especially at the local level, are not involved at any of the three key levels of the budget process: 1. Preparation of the budgets; monitoring expenditures from the allocated funds; and, reviewing the impact of the funded programmes, hence apparent mismatch between what the government does and what the people see as their main priorities. Further of stakeholders and local communities lack civic education about the budget and its processes and about their own rights in national resource allocation; therefore weak in demanding financial accountability and effective

participation in tracking government expenditures. The study also established that the budgeting process and budgets themselves are too complicated for ordinary citizens, even professionals responsible for budgets at local level, to understand. Many people are often put off by the size of the Yellow Book and the difficulties in accessing the financial and Auditor General's reports. Further, tracking and budgeting for CCA funds is hampered by lack of knowledge of CCA funds coming into Zambia by heads and staff of government departments, stakeholders and local communities and their leaders. The study also notes lack of synergy and collaboration, especially at local level, among organizations, including CSOs that are involved in CCA in one way or the other. This weakens their capacity in advocacy. The study acknowledges the existence of various methods and tools of tracking finances for specific interventions. It recommends a cocktail of tools of tools. It recommends focused advocacy towards prioritisation of CCA financing through domestic resources, more social accountability, transparency and community and stakeholder ownership participation in allocations and disbursements.

# 3311- Climate mitigation policies - learning, evaluating and comparing national experiences

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### O-3311-01

#### Climate Policies across Africa: Increasing Interactions and Building Resilience

##### A. Maupin (1)

(1) South African Institute of International Affairs SAIIA, Johannesburg, South Africa

In its quality of a worldwide well-attested phenomenon, climate change will spare no content. This being said, Africa has started to host climate-related global conferences, such as the World Summit for Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002 and the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) in Durban in 2011, both cities being located in South Africa. In addition, African climate-related bottom-up initiatives have played a growing role in climate negotiations, notably by shifting the climate change mindset from an environmental challenge to a development one. As a result of this more comprehensive view of climate change, numerous actions now speak to the increasing number of integrated public policies in different sectors and attempt to bridge the gap between policy development and implementation.

However, few African countries have developed comprehensive climate-related policies. More often, these policies focus on responding to extreme events on one side and managing resources on the other. For example, after Mozambique was forced to appeal for international help to rescue its people during the 2000-2001 massive floods related to the passage of several cyclones, the National Centre of Disasters Management (NCDM) was created with the task to evaluate, response and adapt Mozambique to these changes. On a different note, recent provincial plans promulgated by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have mentioned the importance of including adaptation and mitigation strategies to fight climate change impacts and protect this country's environment. In South Africa, the National Climate Change Response has been conceived as a process, which provides room for stakeholders to develop and implement policies. This diversity of responses reaffirms not only how diverse the national contexts (notably risks and priorities) are, but also how unique the stakeholders' interactions and the locally-built initiatives have become to tackle climate change challenges.

Against this background, this paper presentation aims to provide an overview of numerous climate-related policies that exist across African countries in order to analyse their political motives and responses to climate change. This, in turn, will contribute to develop and implement more interactive policies, which could be further scientific- and initiatives-informed at the national and regional level. Given the importance of natural resources for development and the expected global impacts of

climate change on water, energy, forestry, among others, climate-related and resources-based policies would arguably become strategic components of state security. Interconnections between climate change and resources management policies already exist and cannot be ignored, when they demonstrate states' growing interests in linking future adaptation and mitigation plans with environmental concerns across Africa.

### O-3311-02

#### Policy Instruments to Overcome Energy Efficiency Barriers in Designated Buildings under Thailand's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)

##### Y. Asayama (1); B. Limmeechokchai (2)

(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) THAMMASAT University, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

Thailand pledged its Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) at UNFCCC COP22 in Lima, Peru, following ongoing discussions since 2012. Improvement of energy efficiency in designated buildings is one of the main countermeasures under the proposed NAMAs. Data collection on the actual energy consumption of the buildings plays a key role in determination of the scope of countermeasures as NAMAs and implementation of Measurement Reporting and Verification (MRV). However, the issue of how these countermeasures will be implemented in the context of the unsatisfactory progress of existing policy instruments, particularly the Building Energy Codes (BEC) and energy management reporting system as specified in the 2007 Energy Conservation Promotion (ECP) Act and the Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) over the period of 2011-2030 remains to be addressed.

The objective of this study is to examine the potential of policy instruments and energy-saving measures to overcome the existing barriers. Firstly, the literature is reviewed, with discussion of theory-based policy instruments for building energy efficiency in order to analyze the situations and gaps in policy instruments adopted in Thailand. The means of enforcement and implementation of alternative policy options are also examined. The study also incorporates interviews with relevant stakeholders involved in the NAMA process as well as an EDP in order to compensate for shortcomings in the literature available on Thailand's situation. Furthermore, good practices implemented in other countries were considered for their suitability for application in Thailand.

The necessity of addressing legal and institutional barriers in order to overcome the information barriers was clearly evident in Thailand. The literature shows that regulatory measures have been implemented since 1995 under the ECP Act. However, these have only been implemented
on an ad-hoc basis. In the case of existing buildings, there is no benchmark to identify electricity consumption involved in conducting the required energy management in each designated building. There are also limitations in the availability of information on technologies and technical information contribution to energy savings and operational management. The in-deep interviews indicated that BEC for the construction of new buildings and third-party energy audit have not as yet been implemented. The limitations in human resources and capacities to implement verification and monitoring of the submitted reports have prevented the consolidation of regulation measures as well as the revision of energy efficiency performance standards. Hence, this has given rise to a paucity of sufficient and credible data and made it difficult to achieve the understanding of the existing situation, future projections, and impact of policy instruments.

Results show that the targets of EEDP and Thailand's NAMAs will not be effectively achieved without improvement in the means of achieving compliance levels in the existing ministerial regulations. Progress on this front will be achieved through improved awareness of energy efficiency and co-benefits of implementing the actions through the development of benchmarking and information disclosure for buildings' energy performance, and providing tailor-made solutions. It is necessary to initiate process-oriented, interactive policy-making, with intensive technical training on the ground in order to enhance the credibility of governmental decisions and activities, and to collect and accumulate reliable data and information for energy efficiency toward the achievement of NAMA objectives.

### O-3311-03

## Climate policies: learning from a comparison of different national experiences

P. Mallaburn (1)

(1) Climate Policy Journal, Welyn Garden City, United Kingdom

Peter Mallaburn will give an introductory speech to the session, questioning how a comparison between different national experiences of developing climate policies can be operated, and what are the challenges we face when trying to organise a learning process between these various experiences.

### O-3311-04

## Price and Prejudice: The politics of carbon market establishment in Turkey

AC. Gundogan (1) ; E. Turhan (2)

(1) King's College London, Geography, London, United Kingdom; (2) Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Istanbul, Turkey

Despite increasing number of studies on carbon trading's inefficiencies and self-contradictions, it has been continually presented as the most effective climate change mitigation option and has become a huge global business. On the other hand, governments' endless support to the carbon markets has been criticised since the emission trading balloons exploded numerous times. Being an EU-accession country with no access to EU ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) and an Annex-I country with no access to flexibility mechanisms under now defunct Kyoto Protocol, Turkey is a latecomer under the game. While being a country whose greenhouse gas emissions increased by %133 between 2009-2013 showing the highest rate of change among OECD members, Turkey's climate policies are increasingly drawn into market based climate policies. In Turkey, the government is drawing a new global climate agreement that is set to be signed in 2015. As a result of the external pressure from institutions like World Bank and private sector driven processes, Turkey has started lay down limited policy and legislative ground work in pursuit of setting up an emission trading system which then expected to be linked to the international carbon markets. However, implementation of the emission trading mechanism has never been widely discussed in Turkey hence making it a highly non-transparent process. Potential environmental and socio-economical impacts of the market-based instruments in the framework of combating climate change are being watered down by combatants, industrialists and technocrats while illusive promises of the carbon markets are presented as the

centerpiece of Turkey's position in the new climate regime. This paper critically analyzes the perceptions, promises and discourses of the emerging emission trading system in Turkey from a political ecology lens by scrutinizing different actors' (including representatives of environmental justice movements, state bureaucrats, private sector and international organizations) statements. By doing this, this research aims go beyond dominant voices on carbon market establishment in Turkey, by revealing power relations, preferential treatment of some top-down policy options and the influence of multilateral finance organizations. Such critical approaches suggest that policy preference towards carbon markets vis-à-vis carbon tax in Turkey are not necessarily a rational process lack scientific substance as well as public buy-in.

### O-3311-05

## Climate legislation in the UK: the Climate Change Act and the Committee on Climate Change

S. Smith (1)

(1) Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom

The UK has traditionally been a progressive nation in calling for action on global warming. In 2008 it passed a Climate Change Act with strong backing from all the major political parties.

The Act set a target for national greenhouse emissions to be at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, created a system of 5-year carbon budgets to get there, and set a programme for adapting to climate change. It also created an independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to advise on these aims and monitor progress towards meeting them.

This talk will cover the Act, the role of the CCC and the various factors (such as climate science, economics and international circumstances) that inform the UK emission targets. It will show how the 2050 target is achievable, highlighting the key technologies likely to be needed and the cost involved. We will also see what policy progress has been made in the 7 years since the Act was passed and take a critical look at whether or not the UK is on track to meet the first few carbon budgets.

## 3311-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-3311-01

## "Climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk management in Bangladesh"

AMH. Akhand (1)

(1) Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, Govt of Bangladesh, Joint secretary, gas and regulations, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world and innocent victim, experiencing changing weather patterns of irregular temperature, rainfall and winter season-that affecting people's lifestyle. Bangladesh is already affected by climate change impact, increasing temperature of 2°C and sea level rises of 7.5 cm causing 29% higher returns of disasters (i.e. flood with permanent phenomena which is major causes of crop devastation almost every year, cyclone, water surges, heat and cold waves, drought). Bangladesh is now suffering in water salinity, water logging, soil salinity, human health diseases, shortage of fresh drinking water and food security.

The Global Climate Risk Index 2014 covering the period 1990-2013 finds dangerous climate change affects on Bangladesh, estimates that on an average 8,241 people died each year, while the cost of damage is around US $ 1.2 billion per year and loss of GDP is 1.81%. Bangladesh is projected to face 2.0% loss of annual GDP by 2050 and more than 9% of GDP by 2100 and would experience a net increase in poverty of approximately 15% by 2030 due to climate change impacts. After the 1988 flood and 1991 cyclone, Bangladesh Government has given emphasis using satellite data to face climate change impacts. Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization connect the international satellite stations. Satellite images help for better prediction, and tracking
of cyclone and floods. There are also 50 thousand coastal cyclone preparedness program and 20 thousand urban volunteers are engaged in front-line rescue and awareness activities with women participation for disaster mitigation. Built coastal embankments.

Bangladesh has made remarkable efforts in 'strategies and plans' to streamline regulatory and institutional settings as a pathway to limit climate change impacts following the existing policies and acts. Bangladesh is the first example country for taking various initiatives for the adaptation. The adaptation is the key for survival, initiatives taken in different sectors of the government. One of the six pillars in the adaptation Strategy and Plan is Low Carbon development that puts emphasis on energy efficiency, energy conservation and utilization of renewable energy as potential mitigation options (Bangladesh is less than 0.3 ton GHG emission per year). To adapt the climate impacts, Bangladesh developed Flood Action Plan (1988), the National Water Management Plan (2004), the Standing Orders on Disasters (2010), the 'National Adaptation Program of Action' (2005, revised in 2009) and the 'Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan' (2009) to take necessary preparedness.

The Strategy and Plan is to strengthen adaptive capacity of the local communities and to foster innovation in climate change related technologies which would reduce poverty, generate employment, ensure security of food, water, health, energy and socio-economic well being of all citizens of the country. Bangladesh has prepared a Road map towards formulating a comprehensive NAP with a view to reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience, flood and cyclone shelters.

Bangladesh Meteorological Department developed better early warning system for cyclone and other hazards using satellite data. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre is engaged to alert the vulnerable people about flood risk. Introduced climate tolerance (saline, drought, flood, rain-adapted) crop production. Bangladesh has established two innovative funds: Climate Change Trust Fund from the Government's own budget with an initial capital of US$ 45 million, and Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund (initial fund US$188 million) with the support of development partners. Recent disaster casualties and damages shows the successful reduction compare to previous events. Satellite images are most useful as first responses to disasters and post-disaster assessment. Satellite phones/mobiles/tv channels are useful for emergency warnings. The satellite technology creates new hope and inspirations for human lives.

## P-3311-02

### Forest management systems within rural communities of the north west region of cameroon, strong strategic approaches for climate change in sub-saharan africa.wawa (1)

(1) IMPACT CREATIVES / COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE GROUP, BAMENDA, Cameroon

In a bid to tackle some of the questions raised by climate change, this paper will discuss Sustainable Forest Management Systems within Rural Communities of the North West Region of Cameroon, strong strategic approaches for climate change in sub-saharan Africa.

Human actions on forest, such as uncontrollable harvesting of medicinal plants, felling of trees, farming, bush fires and local bee farming practices like generating smoke to drive away bees from a hive by burning fresh leaves of plants, provide negative effects on climate. This paper presents an analysis of the scientific evidence, indicating that negative influence on forest is affecting the climate in Cameroon. Sea levels are rising; rainfall has decreased by 11%, early rains, increased temperatures and flooding. The paper identifies strategic approaches that are practiced in tackling forest management and climate change in Cameroon. Examples are: tree planting, renewable energy, solar powers, water powers, etc. It describes also, generated land use systems, forests conservation methods and farming techniques, which influence climate change and the health of forest of people.

The concept of indigenous ecosystem and forest management systems used in this paper refers to a

series of practices based on agreed rules, carried out by the local people, aiming at the sustained availability of products and services from trees, crops and forest through Sustainable Development for climate change. Local populations surrounding these forests understand the education of community forestry, taking an active leading role in preserving and protecting the forests, in order to ensure long term benefits and stop the ill effects of climate change in the society.

The paper concludes that this project is building these capacities in collaboration with the various stakeholders in the localities for a healthy conservation of forest and monitoring of changes in the climatic conditions of the areas. Forest management and monitoring plans are carried out using participatory methods and are designed to meet the needs of the communities and their families, while at the same time maintaining Sustainable Biodiversity and Climate change functions.

## P-3311-03

### The political internalization process of climate issues in Brazil and China (1992-2012)

F. Barbi (1) ; LDC. Ferreira, (2)

(1) University of Campinas, Center for Environmental Studies and Research, Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil; (2) University of Campinas, Center for environmental studies and research, Campinas, Brazil

In terms of climate change responses, it is argued that governments are important actors that play a key role in the development of norms, institutions and appropriate modes of governance to address these changes at different levels and scales. This paper discusses the internalization process of the climate issue at the government level in Brazil and China. These two countries have been noted for their importance in the international arena and, above all, the importance of environmental issues at the core of their political processes. In terms of methodology, this analysis is based on three main points: i) Trajectory of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil and China, in the period of 1992-2012; ii) Political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue, focusing on mitigation; iii) Political responses related to climate change, through a historical reconstruction of policies, plans, major programs and projects developed and implemented related to climate change mitigation. The starting point for this analysis is the year of 1992, more specifically the consequences of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, resulting from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which marks the beginning of the involvement of both Brazil and China in international discussions and negotiations on climate change. The results of our analysis show that, in Brazil, emissions have fallen since 2008 and there has been a change in the profile of greenhouse gases emissions in the country. Land-use change and forestry sector has no longer been the most responsible for emissions since 2010. However, all other sectors have increased their emissions over the analyzed period. In the case of China, even with mitigation efforts undertaken, emissions have increased every year. However, the emission growth level has declined reflecting the country's efforts in the installation of low carbon power generation and improvements in energy intensity. In Brazil, there are robust and consolidated political and institutional structures to address the climate issue, involving other segments of society such as the private sector, civil society and research institutions, among others. Regarding political and scientific framework there was a significant increase in the production and sistematization of studies and reports, which can assist the design and implementation of policies related to the problem, and reduce the uncertainties related to climate change. China has also made some progress in this direction. The results show that, in Brazil, the climate issue internalization process is characterized by three phases, the first, marked by the establishment of political-institutional structures engaged with the issue. The second, stands out for greater understanding of this issue in the country. It is marked by the development of a political and scientific agenda around the theme and planning actions in the country. The construction of this agenda was fundamental in laying the foundations of the national policy on climate change. Finally, the third phase is marked by the development of climate policies and by strengthening the scientific agenda around the theme. The national policy agenda is focused on the implementation
of sectoral plans, to meet the voluntary mitigation targets established by the National Climate Change Policy. In the Chinese case, the internalization process of the climate issue has two phases: the first, has more focus on combating air pollution, whereas the climate issue stands as secondary focus of action and the second, more proactive regarding concrete commitments on climate change, with the establishment of the National Climate Change Program and the National Leadership Panel on Climate Change. Both Brazil and China still have challenges to be faced in relation to the set of problems that make up the environmental issue in a world characterized by global climate change. Environmental and climate concerns have difficulties to become political priorities in both countries. In any case, policy measures aimed at reconfiguration of climate issues in these countries may lead to the reidentification of international negotiations about it.

P-3311-04

## Agricultural biodiversity in climate change adaptation planning: An analysis of the National Adaptation Programmes of Action

A. Bedmar Villanueva (1); M. Halewood (1); N. López (1)

(1) Bioview International, Roma, Italy

To guide climate adaptation policies and investments, the majority of least developed countries (LDCs) have developed National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). This study analyzes the extent to which agricultural biological diversity is included as part of national adaptation planning in the 50 NAPAs developed by LDCs to date. Lessons learned from the NAPA development process are potentially valuable to countries that will be developing NAPAs in the years to come. Agricultural biodiversity is a key driver of climate change, and NAPAs can contribute to the resilience of the agricultural systems faced with increasing climatic variability, thereby reducing farmers' vulnerability. The paper presents a framework for analysis existing literature concerning climate change and adaptive capacity, agroecosystems' vulnerability and resilience and the use of biological/genetic diversity in agricultural production, plant breeding, research and development. The study identifies 48 activities included in the NAPAs that help to increase biodiversity in agricultural production systems and/or in upstream research and development chains as part of strategies to adapt to climate change. These activities were clustered, first, by sectors (crops/forages, livestock, fisheries, forestry, agroforestry and natural resources) and then by biodiversity levels (genetic/intra-species, species and ecosystems). The analysis highlights that the exploitation and increase of agrobiodiversity is included in many of the NAPAs: 31% of all the priority project proposals based on the NAPAs include some combination of the 48 agrobiodiversity-related activities. However, approaches taken to including agrobiodiversity varies considerably across the 50 NAPAS: 39% of the identified agrobiodiversity related activities are concentrated in 11 NAPAS; 20 NAPAS present the highest levels of inclusion of agrobiodiversity related activities; whereas 10 NAPAs were found to contain only between zero and 2 of the identified agrobiodiversity related activities. Eight of the identified 48 agrobiodiversity related activities accounted for the 56% of all the relevant activities mentioned overall, suggesting that relatively low range of actions were identified among the priority project proposals. The highest concentration of activities was found in the combined sector of crops/forages and at the ecosystem level; and the lowest in the fisheries sector and at the species and ecosystem levels. Only a small number of the NAPAS include a generally consistent spread of activities across the 3 levels of diversity. Interestingly, all 48 agrobiodiversity-related activities related to research, development, and production systems, and not to promotion of demand or consumption. The study concludes that a more comprehensive and organized approach to including agrobiodiversity in national adaptation planning will be important in future NAPA and NAP development. National planning teams will require only a few strengthening and tools to help them consider options and develop practical, scalable plans (there are few clearly established precedents/models for scaling up of agricultural biological diversification strategies at the national level). While it is beyond the principle scope of our analysis, the paper reflects on some of the factors that have contributed to the variable degrees to which agrobiodiversity has been included in some countries' NAPAs, including the influence of strong plant genetic resources for food and agriculture (PGRFA) national programs, high-profile

agrobiodiversity projects, pre-existing national policies that underscore the importance of agrobiodiversity, etc. On the other hand, the paper notes that 11 countries that included highest levels of reliance on agrobiodiversity are spread across 3 continents and have very different agroecologies and climate-related farmer vulnerabilities.

P-3311-05

## Analysis of low carbon policies in the building sector

H. Beijia (1)

(1) environmental science, Shanghai, China

Building sector accounts for a large percentage of the GHG emission. It is critical to raise appropriate low carbon policies both in developing and developed countries in the building sector. This study focuses on low carbon policies in building sector by conducting a comparison study between Japan and China so that different policy implications can be recognized for countries in different development stages. Two research questions are discussed, including how effective current low carbon policies are and what obstacles exist. Both stakeholder interviews and literature reviews based on Scopus database were undertaken.

In order to address these two issues, related policies are categorized into four groups: control and regulatory instruments; economic/market-based instruments; fiscal instruments; information and voluntary actions. Policy effect analysis identifies that low carbon policies in the building sector have promoted energy saving in both Japan and China. Especially, the innovative Cap and Trade Program in Japan has greatly enhanced the GHG emission reduction. Obstacles comparison reveals that Japan and China shared many obstacles including high transaction costs and lack of applicable methodology. But certain differences also exist. For instance, the unstable political condition and the unexpected Fukushima accidents impede the Japanese government to initiate more innovative energy policies in Japan, while China is suffering from obstacles such as inefficient enforcement, and immature financial regulation system.

Based on the previous findings, common suggestions for overcoming these obstacles of low carbon policies in Japan and China are presented, such as the accurate methods of baseline identification and emission accountings, innovative incentives, and more capacity building activities. Finally, more specific suggestions for both Japan and China are also added by considering their own situations so that both countries can further improve their BES policies.

P-3311-06

## Rethinking Climate Change Research in Zimbabwe

S. Bhatasar (1)

(1) University of Zimbabwe, Sociology, Harare, Zimbabwe

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing challenges confronting Zimbabwe. As such, it has received considerable attention from a wide array of scholars. Certainly, very significant contributions have come from scholars who have deployed various models to establish trends in climate change as well as assess and predict its impacts particularly on agriculture. Paradoxically, even though climate change knowledge in the country continues to grow, questions on how climate change is framed, how impacts are derived using various quantitative methods and models and, even the language used in such studies have not been adequately analysed. These facets are critical particularly because how climate change is framed has important implications for adaptation in the country.

Following the above, this paper subjects various studies on climate change in Zimbabwe to rigorous critical analysis with the intention to demonstrate how climate change and its impacts have been framed and the utility and, pitfalls of such. The important question is, what and whose frames are being framed and, how are they being strengthened and enhanced? And what are the implications for adaptation? The paper argues that climate, climate knowledge and climate change need to be unpacked and reframed by deploying new and bold ontological and epistemological positions. This involves documenting and analyzing local narratives of climate change, for instance of local farmers, living on the frontiers of such changes. This also suggests that interpretive
methods fundamentally come to the fore, even so without
laying claim to principled epistemological privilege.

Although this paper centers on climate change scholarship
from a developing country, it draws insights from a
number of scholars working in other contexts. For
instance, Brace and Geoghegan (2010), brought together
the themes on landscape, temporality and lay knowledge
to propose new ways of understanding climate change
and its impacts. Pettington (2007) alludes to the social
construction of climate change and how power is used to
impose a hegemonic discourse on climate change. Miller
et. al., (2008) argue for epistemological pluralism when it
comes to understanding complex systems that embrace
the human and non-human worlds and climate change is
one such system. Hoffman (2011) points out that climate
change is not yet a 'social consensus', drawing attention
to the various contestations and divergences surrounding
the framing of climate change.

P-3311-07

Mainstreaming climate adaptation-mi-
tigation measures at local level: rifling
common institutional orbit in Nepal

D. Bishwokarma (1)

(1) ForestAction Nepal, Research, Kathmandu, Nepal

Integration of climate mitigation and adaptation has now been becoming more powerful concern in climate change policy architecture to achieve synergetic outcomes. It has become more relevant especially in least developed countries (LDCs) including Nepal considering unavoidable risk of climate change but their high vulnerability. Since recent past, Nepal has been planning and implementing both adaptation and mitigation, especially in sectoral seclusion on planning and implementation, both adaptation and mitigation projects have chosen resourceful and independent local forestry institutions mostly community forest users groups (CFUGs) as an entry point to devise project input at the grass root level. This article scrutinizes the potentially of local forestry institutions to contribute on and integrate climate adaptation and mitigation. It further reconnectors implications of and lessons to achieve synergized outcome from adaptation and mitigation measures from existing institutional arrangements in Nepal.

This paper is the outcome of two comparative case
studies of CFUGs in Dolakha and Lamjung districts
where mitigation and adaptation measures have been
implementing through piloting the reducing emissions
from over forests degradation and REDD+), and
preparing community adaptation plan (CAPs) respectively,
four focus group discussions in the case study sites,
four key informant interviews, five policy level expert
interviews, existing climate change policy documents
review, and literature review.

The research found that CFUGs have been contributing on both mitigation and adaptation through their services since before any external funds. Nonetheless, both quantity and quality of services have increased after implementing climate mitigation and adaptation projects through both government and non-governmental agencies. CFUGs have been chosen as an institutional unit to implement different mitigation measures including sustainable forests management, afforestation, and installation of smokeless stoves. The same institution has been preferred to implement adaptation measures including conservation of water holes, riverbed conservation and management, and installation of early warning systems. The research further found the overlapping of activities such as installation of smokeless stove and afforestation to achieve both mitigation and adaptation objectives. CFUGs even have funded to implement both mitigation and adaptation measures. It signifies the functional aptitude of CFUGs to integrate mitigation and adaption in practice. However, sectoral divide exists specially at the national level since adaptation and mitigation projects are being designed and implemented separately by two different sectoral ministries. We found that the operative mismatch and ghettoized dealing of adaptation and mitigation at the community and central level mechanism has been encumbering the functional contribution of CFUGs. The contradictions between climate change policies have further been stimulating for the sectoral and segregated planning and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Such contradictions have further affecting

on mutual coordination at the policy level. Nepal is
eluding an opportunity to utilize existing and voluntarily
emerging forestry institution to integrate adaptation
and mitigation due to such differential interferences at
the central level. This paper suggests that Nepal has a
unique opportunity to be a role model and contribute
to ongoing globate debate to integrate climate mitigation
and adaptation in LDCs by employing collaborative
planning and implementation process at the central level
and by acknowledging the potential contribution of CFUGs
at the local level. However, the existing mismatches and
segregated planning and implementation approach has to
be addressed at the policy level. Synergetic adjustments
on existing climate policies would be one primary option
to create sectoral collaborative milieu for integration
of mitigation and adaptation. The central level policy
institution such as national planning commission having
directive authority to sectoral ministries should take lead
role for overall designing and planning mitigation
adaptation projects to ensure bottom-up mainstreaming,
overcome mismatch at policy level, and acknowledge
functional potentiality of CFUGs at local level.

P-3311-08

Towards Adaptation : Advanced scientific
knowledge to better prepare for climate
change

V. Bourduas Crouhen (1) ; R. Siron (2) ; L. Leclerc (2)

(1) Ouranos, Vulnerabilities, Impacts and Adaptation, Montréal, Canada; (2) Ouranos, Project coordinator, Montréal, Canada

To prepare for and cope with a changing climate, the Québec government created, in 2002, a research on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change named Ouranos. The organization publishes, approximately every 5 years, a state of knowledge review on impacts resulting from climate change for Québec. The latest edition, «Towards adaptation: synthesis of knowledge on climate change in Québec» is the most thorough and up-to-date portrayal of what can be expected in the upcoming decades in the province. The synthesis is divided into three major chapters, including climatic analyses and scenarios of change: vulnerabilities and impacts; and implementation of adaptation. This document helps answer questions such as «What are the effects for Québec and what options exist to cope with the expected changes?» Elaborated through a collaborative process, it involved over 80 authors and advisers and covered an immense territory (over three times the area covered by France), exposing the reality of 7 degrees of latitude and more than 22 degrees of longitude. Since this research covers a broad area of climate types and geographic regions, multiple results from this study could be applicable or transferable in other provinces of the country and even outside Canada.

The presentation submitted for this conference will explore
a few highlights from this study including the following.

Since the 1950s, the average annual temperature in Québec increased by 1 to 3°C, depending on the region. It is anticipated that by mid-century the temperature could continue to rise by 2 to 4°C and, by the end of the century, by up to 4 to 7°C in the south and 5 to 10°C in the north. In addition, extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and/or more intense with a warming climate. A sea level rise of 30 to 75 cm in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is also considered a major threat.

Some of these climate changes could generate business
opportunities while others could generate significant risks
for several sectors. For example, heat waves, aggravated
by the urban heat island effect, will affect public health
and could increase the cases of mortality and morbidity.
Other effects, such as the lengthening of the pollen
season and the intensification of atmospheric pollution
caused by forest fires, could aggravate respiratory and
cardiovascular problems. Likewise, the decrease in ice
cover as well as the increase in precipitation could result
in major impacts, including erosion of the coastline and
flooding. Ecosystems and biodiversity could also be deeply
disturbed by the arrival and expansion of harmful invasive
species. Impacts from global changes are already noted on
the life cycles and distribution of trees, plants, migratory
birds, salmonids and the iconic migratory caribou. Water
management will be worldwide issues facing changing
climate. Conflicts of use associated with issues of quality
and availability of water are likely to increase and could have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems and fish habitat, production of potable water in municipalities and agriculture needs among others.

To reduce the vulnerabilities and diminish the costs and magnitude of the expected risks, it is critical to take all necessary measures to adapt. Adaptation measures need not be to help people adapt, but they must be chosen carefully so that they can facilitate sustainable development and more importantly not increase greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve great adaptation measures, all stakeholders within a given system need to be included in the process. This way the multidisciplinary and sometimes multicultural teams can identify issues and search for solutions together taking into account all vulnerabilities on a territory. It is therefore easier for them to implement these adaptation measures when they are directly involved in the identification process.

Québeceq possesses tools and expertise that could be put to use to reduce vulnerabilities, while leveraging possible opportunities arising from global warming. Revising laws and regulations, building and maintaining infrastructure according to improved design criteria and practices as well as early warning systems to reduce impacts on human health constitute tangible examples of adaptation options already implemented. The question now is not whether we need to adapt but rather how we can optimize the way we adapt to climate change.

## P-3311-09

# Tracking leading indicators to understand decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies

C. Cronin (1); S. Menon (1); S. Monteith (1)

(1) ClimateWorks Foundation, Advisory & Research, San Francisco, CA, United States of America

Over the last year, ClimateWorks Foundation with other collaborators created the Carbon Transparency Initiative (CTI) tool with the objective to provide a transparent, granular, and consistent reference scenario for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across regions and sectors based upon current policies, decarbonization trends, and expected investments. The CTI tool is an open-source, indicator-led methodology based upon fundamental analysis of a small number of underlying driver metrics that shape long-term emissions. It allows for comparing regional current emissions trajectories to other scenarios and government targets. It can also be used to track policy implementation and to determine future emissions trajectories and benchmark current decarbonization trends. Approximately 10 additional countries are being added in 2015 in partnership with the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group, though with less detail. All combined, the CTI will be able to evaluate decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies in countries that account for 75% of global emissions.

The CTI tool, as designed, provides transparency of emissions in China, the EU-28, India, Mexico, and the US, for which the methodology distinguishes between 11 sectors: power, transportation, oil and gas, buildings, steel, cement, chemicals, 'other industries', agriculture, forestry, and waste. The tool presents analysis on leading indicator statistics for each sector, and uses these metrics to both determine future emissions trajectories and benchmark current decarbonization trends. Approximately 10 additional countries are being added in 2015 in partnership with the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group, though with less detail. All combined, the CTI will be able to evaluate decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies in countries that account for 75% of global emissions.

Many of the highest-emitting countries are undergoing rapid changes. When extrapolating historic 'GHG numbers for these countries, forecasts and scenarios can fundamentally underestimate saturation and maturity effects, and cannot thoroughly capture the impacts of current and expected climate policies. CTI's methodology is uniquely designed to forecast emissions trends out to 2030, taking into account saturation points, macro and technology shifts in the economy, and climate policy implementation and conditions. A fundamental analysis on a small number of key drivers of global emissions. The

tool relies upon a number of trusted sources, including the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICC), Bloomberg National Energy Finance (BNEF), International Energy Agency (IEA), and others. In addition, by providing a high level of granular visibility into its components and indicators, with all of its outputs broken down by region, sector and covering the time period between 2010 to 2030, the CTI tool is designed for annual tracking of key driver metrics for the next few years that help understand and contextualize trends. Decarbonization and implementation of climate policies.

## P-3311-10

# Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Climate Policy Response from State and Local Governments in the United States: Comparative Analysis of California, Texas, New York, and Florida

S. Garren (1)

(1) Hofstra University, Geology, Environment, and Sustainability, Hempstead, New York, United States of America

The purpose of the session is to assess the current state of climate policy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in the four most populated states in the United States (i.e., California, Texas, New York, and Florida). Together these states comprise one-third of the total United States population. Each state faces different challenges in addressing climate change and each has historically different approaches to climate policy. The session will be organized by the three research questions that guided the research: 1) What has been the policy response to the threat of climate change from each of the four states and its local governments; 2) What were the GHG emission trends from 2000 to 2010 in the four states and its local governments?; and, 3) What were the drivers of change of greenhouse gas emissions? Research was conducted to systematically catalogue climate policy within each state and specific actions taken at the local government level. Actions taken at the local government level included participation in one or more of eight climate networks and completion of a GHG inventory and/or climate action plan. A comprehensive GHG inventory was completed for each state (2000 through 2010) and for selected local governments (2000 and 2010). GHG emissions were summarized for total GHG emissions, per capita GHG emissions, and by sector (i.e., energy, transportation, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, carbon sequestration, and for miscellaneous other categories). Data availability at the state level is robust; however, the data is often unavailable for all local governments and continues to be problematic. The research also provides recommendations on data collection improvements at the local government level to better determine the efficacy of local government policies and to make comparisons among local governments. Policymakers need accurate data and a framework by which to measure progress towards reduction targets and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing GHG emissions.

## P-3311-11

# Localizing climate policy responses: Explaining local government responses to climate impacts in the United States

D. Kauneckis (1)

(1) Ohio University, Voinovich School for Leadership and Public Affairs, Athens, OH, United States of America

In the context of American public policy, local and state governments have taken the lead in innovating and implementing climate change policies. This has occurred both in terms of mitigation and adaption efforts. This presentation reports results from a study of the actions of local governments in response to climate change in the United States. The study relies on a unique dataset of 277 publicly-available data at the city, county and sub-state levels engaged in climate change policymaking and implementation. The presentation focuses on climate adaptation efforts - defined for the purpose of this work as policy action taken that addresses a risk directly associated with climate impacts. The results examine the factors contributing to the likelihood that a local government organization has actively expended resources toward reducing climate vulnerability. It explores how
organizations collaborate and engage in collective action solutions that facilitate policy learning and innovative strategies to address climate risks. The variables examined include the type of policy action, exposure to real and perceived climate risks, levels of policy innovation associated with organizational collaborations, and the outcomes of these efforts. Additionally, it looks at the role of both informal and formal policy networks, sources of innovation, and the prevalence of horizontal and vertical collaboration. Findings contribute to the theoretical literature on institutional collective action, policy innovation and learning, and local public economies. The results present important lessons for local governments managing the challenges of climate change and a decentralized view of how climate policy can progress at the local level in spite of inaction at the national and international levels.

## P-3311-12

### Multilevel Governance and Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Responses in Latin American Cities

P. Romero Lankao (1)

(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America

Urban populations, economic activities and infrastructure are responsible for between 71 and 75% of global GHG emissions. However, often only a small fraction of emissions produced within a city is under the direct control of local governments. While cities are vulnerable to a suite of negative impacts that climate change is projected to aggravate, many adaptation options are also out of local reach. In these cases, other jurisdictions and individuals are often left without national governments or the private sector, may have control over regulations, investments and programs that drive and manage emissions and risk. Hence, in order to mitigate GHG emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change a range of actors, across sectors and levels of government, will need to create multilevel and multisectoral coalitions for effective urban climate governance. Although mitigation and adaptation goals are, often of necessity, pursued in tandem by local governments, and urban climate policies are the product of multiscale influences, the relationship between multilevel governance and urban institutional capacity for mitigation and adaptation policies has only recently received attention, and studies focused on cities from Latin American countries are often missing altogether. We present work conducted through the ADAPTE project to explore some of the key factors or drivers shaping the institutional capacity to develop and implement mitigation and adaptation policies in the Latin American cities of Buenos Aires, Argentina, Mexico City, Mexico and Santiago, Chile. These cities have been molded by similar urbanization processes, neoliberal reforms, urban and environmental policies, and by the presence of scientific groups and multinational networks that have been instrumental in putting climate change on their policy agendas. We compare two late arrivals to the climate change policy arena (Buenos Aires and Santiago) with a frontrunner (Mexico City), and ask whether being a frontrunner is an indicator of greater institutional capacity to respond to climate change and whether barriers to creating institutional response capacity operate similarly across cities regardless of the status of their policy development.

## P-3311-13

### Economics of Global Climate Policies of Adaptation and Mitigation: A Review

MHB. Syed (1)

(1) Jahangirnagar University, Economics, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Climate change is uncertain all over the World. But its impact is visible everywhere. From the Arctic Ocean to the Tropics, climate is changing over the last several Decades. Greenhouse gas is the major cause of the Global climate challenges before the Mankind. It has been found that fossil fuel CO² is responsible for 78% of the total GHG gas emissions rise between 1970 and 2010. The concern about global warming was first raised in the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), which is also known as Earth Summit, held in Rio-De-Jennerio in 1992. Since then concerted work on climate challenges has been going on under United Nations initiatives.Conference of the Parties(COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pledged that future Global warming should be restricted to below 2°C(3.6°F) in relation to the Pre-industrial level.This may be re-phased with a target of restricting global warming to below 1.5°C in relation to the pre-industrial level.Anthropogenic Greenhouse gas group of gases are responsible for global warming. All the Members of the United Nations are the Members of Conference of the Parties(COP). Conference of the Parties(COP) is being held at different locations of the World since 1995. The 21st COP will be held in Paris in December,2015.Now, the question is, how to adapt to the climate change and mitigate the severity of the climate change. This adaptation and mitigation policies will differ from one Country to another. However, the combined effect of the global warming is being contained by the end of 2100 A.D. According to some others, it should be contained by 2070 A.D.Somewhere adaptation policies are characterized as a private good as the benefit goes directly to the individuals, regions or countries that implement them.Mitigation Policies consist of switching to low-carbon energy sources for example renewable and low-carbon energy and to remove greater amounts of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere by enlarging forests and other sinklands. Improving insulation of the buildings may increase energy efficiency.Climate Engineering is another method of mitigation. With limitations, Economics provides mechanism for examining the merits or demerits of taking or not taking action on climate change mitigation or adaptation in obtaining competing societal goals. The Stern Review on the 'Economics of Climate Change' is a report by the Economist Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics and the University of Leeds. The report indicates the effect of Global warming on the World economy. The Stern Review suggested fixing the accumulation of Greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at a maximum of 550 CO²e by 2050. According to the Review this amounts to cutting Greenhouse gas emissions to three quarters of 2007 levels. The costs of these cuts would be in between the range of -1 to +3.50% of World GDP(GWP) with an average estimate of approximately 1%. The revised figure by Stern is 2% of GWP. To make a comparison in 2010, the World Product(GWP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) was estimated at $74.5 trillion. Therefore, 2% of the amount is $ 1.5 trillion. The Review includes prescriptions consisting of environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions. The Stern Review's major concluding remark is that benefits of strong early action on climate change outweigh the costs of not acting. The Review points out the impacts of climate change on water, food, health and the environment. The Review says that without action the total costs of climate change will be equivalent to a loss of at least 5% GWP, each year now and forever.

## 3312 - Planning and assessing adaptation: Frameworks, methods and results

### ORAL PRESENTATIONS

#### K-3312-01

##### Diversification: a safety net for Kenya's dryland farmers in the face of climate change

M. Okoti (1); P. Ketiem, (2); J. Wamuongo, (2); A. Kipkoech, (3); M. Barare, (4)

(1) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Environment and Climate Change Research, Nairobi, Kenya;

(2) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) Eldoret University, Eldoret, Kenya; (4)

Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Kisii, Kenya
Climate change threatens livelihoods of the predominantly pastoral communities in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, making about 50% of households in these areas food insecure. This will worsen given the pressures from climate change, unless there are changes in food production. In adapting to climate change, agro-pastoralism is being embraced. While this shift represents an innovation, the households are exposed to new risks and challenges in securing their livelihoods. This risks include increased drought frequencies, water and food shortages, increased temperatures and erratic rainfall. The main challenges include dwindling land sizes and limited agricultural know-how. The IDRC-funded Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Kenya project set out to identify suitable crops for local conditions that would be readily acceptable to farmers, and to investigate water efficient farming systems that would be more productive. Further projected climatic changes. Localized rainfall information for the region was used to indicate current and future rainfall scenarios, forecast the onset of the planting season and identify suitable areas for different adaptation strategies. Working with 240 households, over three years, the project established demonstration field plots and farmer field schools to introduce appropriate climate adaptation strategies. These included drought tolerant crops, cover crops, use of organic and inorganic fertilized land new production systems. Through the farmer field schools, farmers evaluated and assessed their acceptability. Prior to the project, households had reported a reduction in crop yields over the previous ten years by between 10% and 50%. Project interventions saw households who had planted alternative, drought-tolerant and high yielding crop varieties obtain up to 40% increase in yield. Furthermore, households started to allocate about 10% more of their arable land to food crop production, improving their household food security by 18%. Having invested in crop production, 20% of the households started to supplement their animal feeds with crop residues, increasing their feed supplies by 8%. There was a decline in the size of their livestock herds as they adopted cropping practices, but increases in crop production compensated for the reduction in livestock-based earnings. Planting in zai pits reduced crop yield losses during extreme dry weather by up to 40%. Use of organic fertilizers, increased maize yields by 50% in a normal season, fertilizers reduced losses by up to 10% during severe drought and up to 30% during mild drought. By cultivating crops in former livestock pens, production was up to three times more than unfertilized fields, showing the importance of organic fertiliser, as a way to reduce the impacts of climate variability and change. Cost and benefit projections showed that crop diversification would yield over 40 times the investment cost within the first year, with the potential for further significant increases in subsequent years. All targeted households influenced 3-5 other households, significantly increasing the uptake of adaptation strategies and scale of impact. Households with the highest diversity of crops traded in the market more frequently than those with fewer crops. The linkages and support from the County government extension staff greatly promoted the success of the initiatives. The county government committed to invest in competent extension services, farmer field schools and demonstration centers for supporting households in building wealth, growing income and ensuring food and nutritional security.

## K-3312-02

### Picking mushrooms: how to gather adaptation science, theory and practice in order to assess progress

L. Schipper (1)

(1) Overseas Development Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute, Berkeley, United States of America

By the 1990s, adaptation scientists had developed a rather sophisticated 'typology' of adaptation (see Smit, 1993; Smit et al., 2001), which reflected adaptation's elusive nature. This typology reflected the idea that adaptation could exist in many different temporal and spatial scales and dimensions of consciousness. One of the most useful typologies to emerge from this work is the idea of 'planned' versus 'spontaneous' adaptation, also described as 'proactive' vs. 'reactive' adaptation. This distinction has many ways been the core notion that has given policy makers and practitioners an entry into adaptation. Yet subsequent scholarship on adaptation has been unable to develop a robust theoretical basis necessary to further a common

understanding. Rather than build on existing knowledge, initiatives, publications and theories have developed in a mushroom-like fashion. This creates a rift in the three domains of adaptation science-policy-practice. In this context, this paper asks how measuring adaptation - frameworks and indicators - can be applied when the conceptual underpinnings are debated and questioned.

## O-3312-01

### Adaptation tracking at global to regional scales

J. Ford (1) ; L. Berrang-Ford (1) ; R. Biesbroek (2)

(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) Wageningen University, Public administration and policy group, Wageningen, Netherlands

Adaptation tracking seeks to characterize, monitor, and compare general trends in climate change adaptation over time and across nations. Recognized as essential for evaluating adaptation progress, there have been few attempts to develop systematic approaches for tracking adaptation, particularly at global to regional scales. This is reflected in standardized definitions, contradictory findings, and limited understanding on the state of adaptation globally. This presentation will outline key methodological considerations necessary for adaptation tracking research to produce systematic, rigorous, comparable, and usable insights that can capture the current state of adaptation globally, provide the basis for characterizing and evaluating adaptations taking place, facilitate examination of what conditions explain differences in adaptation action across jurisdictional and national scales. This paper will focus on change in adaptation over time. We will use examples from our own work to illustrate approaches to adaptation tracking, including studies examining adaptation globally, in the EU, in the health sector, in urban areas with >1m people, and in 'hot spot' regions. The presentation will stress the importance of utilizing a consistent and operational conceptualization of adaptation, focusing on comparable units of analysis, using and developing comprehensive datasets on adaptation action, and being coherent with our understanding of what constitutes 'real' adaptation; collectively what we term the '4Cs of adaptation tracking'.

## O-3312-02

### Assessing the climate change adaptive capacity at the city level, a case study: the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile

D. Araya (1) ; M. Metzger, (1) ; S. Neil (1) ; W. Meriwether (1) ; A. Luis (2)

(1) University of Edinburgh, Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (2) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Geografía, Valparaíso, Chile

Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. This research examines the capacity of generic adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA), Chile. A new approach is proposed to assess the urban adaptive capacity which is based on a set of indicators and fuzzy modelling techniques through Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. A general procedure is proposed which provides consistency while allowing the required flexibility for application to cities under conditions of varying urban context, such as information availability, resources, time, and scale. The factors understood that facilitate or constrain the process of adaptation were identified to reveal the differences between the level of adaptive capacity over time among the municipalities of the CMA. This allowed monitoring of changes in the spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity over time. This is the first extensive quantitative analysis of urban adaptive capacity in Chile.

The model of the city's generic adaptive capacity was developed through fuzzy logic operations of ArcGIS software. This is based on seventeen indicators, derived from data available for all the urban areas in Chile, which are standardized and then aggregated through a stepwise approach into six determinants. These determinants are then aggregated into three components and finally combined to provide an overall generic adaptive capacity index, which is then aggregated for nine municipalities within the CMA. The set of urban indicators were selected based
on the literature and created using data available at the
municipality scale. As the same indicators were recorded
for 1992 and 2002, they can be compared to reveal
changes in the indicators over a 10 year period. This allows
to understand the past conditions and factors contributing
most to positive changes in adaptive capacity over the
period, as well as those factors that have changed least.

Over the studied decade, it can be seen that all the
municipalities increased their level of adaptive capacity.
However, the relative levels of adaptive capacity between
the analyzed municipalities did not change significantly,
this implied that the large differences observed between
the municipalities were maintained over the studied
period. The results also show that municipalities with
lower level of adaptive capacity in 1992 presented the
highest increases in level of adaptive capacity in 2002.
In contrast, those municipalities with highest level of
adaptive capacity in 1992 showed less improvement. One
interpretation that can be drawn is that economic factors
such as the increasing income inequality found particularly
in the richest municipalities may actually be reducing
the potential for further increasing adaptive capacity in
these municipalities. These results suggest that efforts to
improve the level adaptive capacity of the municipalities
should focus not only on increasing the general adaptive
capacity level, but also in reducing the wide disparities
observed between municipalities.

The resulting indices enable monitoring of changes in the
spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity and changes
over time across the city. The resulting maps help identify
areas where adaptive capacity is lacking or less developed.
This can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and
stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas/
how to prioritize urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity. Such
discussion can contribute to the climate policy in both
city planning and national planning scale, e.g. the Chilean
National Adaptation Plan (NAP). It highlights the benefits
of modelling using fuzzy sets to future research in the
field of vulnerability to climate change since allowed
the straightforward standardization and consistent
aggregation of indicators. The methodology developed for
CMA can be readily applied for other cities in Chile and
around the world.

0-3312-03

Impact of adaptation strategies on maize
productivity under climate change: Empir-
cal evidence from the Senegal River valley

A. Beyer (1)

(1) Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Bureau d'Analyse macroéconomique (BAME), Dakar, Senegal

Climate change challenges require, at the microeconomic level, the adoption of effective strategies to ensure production performance for achieving food security. Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector are essential to face issues related to climate change over the coming decades (IPCC 2007). In the literature, economists have mainly focused their interest on the impact of climate change on agriculture (Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw, 1994; Deressa and Hassan, 2009; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007) while the quantitative analysis of the role of adaptation remains marginally explored (Stern, 2006). In Senegal, food security depends on local agricultural capacity as agriculture, which determines the agglomeration of food is the first element in the food safety chain (CMA 2012). Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the major food crops in Senegal. This traditional crop has been part of Senegalese consumers' diet for centuries. However, maize cultivation is mainly rainfed. Approximately 40% of the maize growing areas are occasionally confronted with drought stress, with yield losses of 10 to 25% (Boone and Al., 2008). To cope with irregular and insufficient rainfall, Senegalese farmers have adopted a range of strategies (NADP, 2012). This paper's main aim is to identify the different types of adaptation implemented and quantify the impact of those adaptation strategies on maize productivity.

Materials and methods: This study was conducted in the
Senegal River Valley which is one of the six agro-ecological
zones of the country and where 8% of total arable lands are
concentrated. The data used in this study was collected
through surveys during the rainy season of 2013. The
dataset encompasses 140 farms in the middle and upper

Senegal River Valley. First, a frequency analysis is used
to determine the adoption rate coping strategies.
Performing a student test, we identified strategies with a
significant impact on maize productivity. Econometric
estimates were then made for those strategies.
Second, we used the endogenous switching regression
model (Alene and Manyong, 2007, Di Falco et al, 2010;
Di Falco and Veronesi, 2011; Akpala, 2011) to identify
the determinants of the decision to adapt a given strategy.
The advantage of this model is to allow for full interactions
between the implementation of an adaptation strategy
and the factors determining productivity. Finally, based
on Sajaja and Lokshin (2004), we calculated the expected
productivity in both factual and counter-factual groups to
determine the impact of adaptation strategies identified
on maize productivity.

Results and adaptation policy implications: The results
show that 78% of farms in the middle and upper
Senegal River Valley use at least one coping strategy.
These strategies include the change of seeding date
(implemented by 69% of farmers), the use of short cycle
varieties (36%), the «cordonnier»ux (1%), the «zai»
(3%), the use of trees or shrubs fertilizers (4%), the direct
seeding (7%), the use of biomass (1%) and irrigation (2%).
The Student test shows that the change of seeding date
and the use of short cycle varieties have a positive and
significant impact on maize yield. For these two strategies,
the differences in yields observed between farmers who
adopt a strategy and those who did not is not a hazard.
Estimates of endogenous switching regression model
highlight the main determinants of the decision to adapt.
Farm households that use fertilizers with individual fields
are found to be more likely to change the seeding date and
use of short cycle varieties. Likewise, farmers who belong
to the producer in a formalized group are more likely to
use short cycle strategies. Therefore, dissemination of these
coping strategies would be more efficient through producers'
organizations than through extension services that have
no impact on the decision to adopt a strategy. Results
show also that in the Senegal River Valley, the change of
seeding date is the best adaptation strategy to improve
the maize productivity in the context of climate change.
Indeed, the impact analysis shows that the change of
seeding date increases the average productivity of maize
by 506 kg/ha, while the use of short cycle varieties only
increases it by 247 kg/ha. In terms of adaptation policy we
propose the establishment of Climatic Information System
which goal would be to provide information about climate
to farms through a multi-stakeholder platform gathering
both producer's organization and meteorological and
extension services to better cope with climate change in
Senegal rural area.

3312-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-3312-01

Formal and Informal Networks for Lear-
ning in Adaptive Risk Management in
London, UK

T. Abeling (1)

(1) United Nations University / King's College London, Bonn, Germany

Since the 2003 European heatwave, risk management and
early warning systems for extreme temperatures have
been developed in many European cities, London, UK, a
global frontrunner in urban climate change adaptation,
introduced comprehensive risk planning arrangements
in the context of the 2004 National Heatwave Plan. Its
annual rounds of review and its application through local
governments in London are the focus of the analysis in this
presentation. They provide a unique opportunity to study,
in a local government context, pathways and constraints for
social learning as an aspect of urban resilience. Empirical
analysis stems from 49 semi-structured expert interviews
with risk planning officials from London local authorities,
health and social care organisations. Findings suggest
that the interaction of formal and informal institutions has
limited social learning in heatwave planning to incremental
changes that reinforced the status-quo. Informal networks
and trust relationships between risk planners compensated
for formal heatwave planning arrangements that were
perceived as dysfunctional. This support from informal
organizations to formal strategies enhanced opportunities
for paradigm shifts in risk planning. It suggests that social