Implications of Depleting Himalayan
Cryosphere under Changing Time

S. Roshmo (1)

(1) University of Kashmir, Earth Sciences, Srinagar, India

Lidder tributary in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of the Alpine Himalayas, India, is an important source of surface and ground water, is experiencing clear indications of climate change. In the basin, minimum, maximum and average temperatures are showing a significant increasing trend in all the four seasons. Precipitation is showing insignificant decrease over time in the basin, however the proportion of the snow in precipitation has decreased and the proportion of the rain has correspondingly increased. The temperature projections also show increasing trends for the end of this century. The time series analysis of the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) from MODIS satellite shows a depletion of the snow-cover in the region. Furthermore, during the last 51 years, the glacier area in the basin has decreased from 46.09 km2 in 1962 to 33.43 km2 in 2013, a depletion of 27.47%. As a result of the glacier recession in the basin, the streamflow fed predominantly by snow- and glacier-melt, is overall showing a statistically significant decline. However, the spring discharge is showing an increase, might be due to the early melting of the snow due to warmer springs. The declining streamflows have potential to adversely affect agriculture, energy production, tourism and even domestic water supplies. In the Kashmir Himalaya, one of the major concerns about the climate change relates to its impact on streamflows in the Indus basin, whose waters are shared between India and Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty. Snow and ice reserves of the Himalayan river basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability over South Asia, are likely to be substantially affected by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to develop strategies for the conservizing of the depleting water resources in the region. Accordingly, Snowrunoff Runoff Model (SRM) was tested for estimating the runoff from this glacialized basin on an operational basis. The average simulated runoff at the outlet 11.94 m3/s is in concordance with the average measured runoff 13.51 m3/s showing R2 of 0.82. The model could thus be used for snowrunoff runoff estimation, on an operational basis, for judicious utilization of the depleting water resources in the region.

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of
Water-Related Changes in the Andes of
Peru: Challenges and Future Implications

J. Seidel (1); F. Drenkhan (2); C. Huggel (2)

(1) University of Stuttgart, Institute for modelling hydraulic and environmental systems, Stuttgart, Germany; (2)
University of Zürich, Department of geography, Zürich, Switzerland

One sixth of the world's population lives in river catchments supplied by snow and glacier melt, and is therefore considered to be affected by climate change impacts on the cryosphere and water resources. In the tropical Andes glaciers have been a crucial source for societies and livelihoods for thousands of years. Nonetheless, climatic and non-climatic stressors pose potential risks and challenges to the provision of water resources and linked ecosystem services, both in terms of quantity and quality. Mountain communities in Peru are considered to be highly vulnerable due to the impact of climate change, and due to a strong exposure to climate change impacts and limited adaptive capacity. However, comprehensive analyses of water-related risks considering multi-dimensional drivers across different scales in the framework of climate change are complex and barely addressed in climate-sensitive mountain regions with limited data availability.

Here we present a comprehensive data assessment study for two major catchments in the Andes of Peru: Santa River (Ancash region) and Vilcanota River (Cusco region). These river basins, which comprise various ecosystems, hold the largest tropical glacier mass worldwide and are particularly exposed to climate change impacts. In the upstream areas, snow and glaciers store fresh water and buffer low flows during the dry season. Decreasing ice volume and changes in climatic patterns will subsequently alter river runoff

characteristics.

For these study areas, we analyze to what extent both water supply and demand of two mountain catchments can be assessed using multiple data sources such as ground- based (air temperature, precipitation and discharge records and remote sensing (TRMM precipitation, MODIS evapotranspiration and snow cover) data. Furthermore, we include a first assessment of socioeconomic key drivers identified by expert interviews with local and international stakeholders, decision-makers and water users. We propose an integrative water balance model approach which combines the main key variables of water supply and demand under hydrological risks considering climate- related hazards, human and natural vulnerability and exposure assessments.

The impact of climate change on mountain
landscapes of the North Caucasus

V. Vinogradova (1)

(1) Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Laboratory of Climatology, Moscow, Russia

Changes in the boundaries of high-altitude mountain belts can be treated as a proof of climate change. These changes were caused by termination of human activities. The presentation shows the role of climatic factors in changes of the boundaries and state of sub-alpine landscapes in the North Caucasus, where the transformation of land use system was observed. These are mainly mountain meadows, which were being shaped for centuries of grazing and land use has been changing for the last decades: nowadays more than 60% of sub-alpine meadows are abandoned.

Heat and moisture are the limiting factors of vegetation existence. The estimate of changes in heat and humidity was made for the territory of 42-44N 42-44E using vegetation index (NDVI), the index of vegetation conditions (VCI), Satellite Climatic Extremes Index (SCEI) and the sum of active temperatures (air temperature above + 10 °C).

Analysis of index changes shows normal humidification on the slopes of the main Caucasian ridge throughout the more humid period (2000-2006). In the second - dry period (2007-2013) for most part of the southern European Russia the situation is changing. In the foothills moisture decreases, whereas in the middle mountains the increase in moisture is seen. The estimate of the amount of active temperatures and precipitation for the period of modern warming (1981-2010) compared with the previous period (1951-1980) shows the increase of these parameters in the early twenty-first century in the foothills of the North Caucasus. These changes cause the increase in vegetation in the middle mountains of the North Caucasus. It is evidenced by the growth of vegetation index (NDVI) at the beginning of the twenty-first century in this area. And in the areas with low altitudes (500-1000 m) vegetation index decreased after 2006, reflecting degradation of vegetation state. In the middle mountains the increase of vegetation index is observed, showing the improvement on conditions of vegetation.

In the middle mountains of the North Caucasus regeneration of natural boundaries of altitude zones is observed: the expansion of mountain-forest belt and restoration of pine forests on the southern slopes; restoration of mountain meadow steppe and steppe sub-alpine meadows on former agricultural terraces; northern slopes overgrown with crooked birch. These processes occur in the context of climate change (rising temperatures, increasing moisture) and reduce of human impact. Thus, climate change and weakening economic activity on the territory lead to restoration of vegetation in the area of middle mountains.

Researches were supported by RFFI grant № 14-05
00233A.
# 2212a - Climate change and freshwater - 1: State of knowledge

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2212a-01

#### Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Resources and Managing Global Risks

T. Oki (1)

(1) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

The real hydrological cycles on the Earth are not natural anymore. Humans are now driving changes in atmospheric processes through emission of green-house gases and land cover changes directly and indirectly. Global mean temperature is projected to rise approximately proportional to the cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (AR5, IPCC WGI). Temperature rise itself will have direct impacts on the availability of water resources through changing flow regimes in snow-dominant or glacier-effluent river basins, and it will also be associated with sea level rise because thermal expansion is one of the major causes of observed and projected sea level rises. Further, climate change is projected to alter hydrological cycles: changing temporal and geographical patterns of hydrological components, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and ground water recharge, and particularly in their extremes. Consequently, the frequency of floods and/or droughts is projected to increase some parts of the world.

However, as articulated in the AR5 of IPCC WGI, "Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems", increasing frequency of natural hazards, such as torrential rainfall or long-lasting heat wave, alone will not cause damages on human and natural systems, and both climate and social changes are relevant for planning sustainable development in the future.

AR5 (WGI) also says "Significant co-benefits, synergies, and tradeoffs exist between mitigation and adaptation and among different adaptation responses; interactions occur both within and across regions". Mitigation and/or adaptation actions should not be planned in an isolated manner, but should be integrated into wider frameworks, such as integrated water resources management and sustainable development. It would preferably be integrated into a risk management framework assessing and managing possible global risks, and ultimately pursue increasing human well-beings.

### K-2212a-02

#### Hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic worldwide monitoring, data sharing, cooperation and services

B. Stewart (1); H. Lins (2)

(1) former Director, Department of Climate and water, wmo, Croydon, Victoria, Australia; (2) President of WMO Commission for Hydrology, Washington, United States of America

Freshwater resources are essential to all forms of life and, in a changing environment, hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic information are critical to ensure that resources are managed sustainably. Our precious freshwater resources are under increasing stress due to a range of factors. These include, inter alia, growing populations, increasing food and industrial production and a changing and variable climate. Unless we improve the availability of, and access to, good quality hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic information, we will not be able to fully understand and manage our water resources in a sustainable manner and monitor the implications of future decisions.

In this regard, the current status of monitoring climatic change and its impacts, with an emphasis on global freshwater resources is reviewed. In particular, the value of comprehensive hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic monitoring is described, including international efforts to

facilitate and improve data collection and accessibility. Benefits from monitoring include improved understanding of the state and variability of freshwater resources, as well as reduced uncertainty in resource management decision-making under climatic change. Additionally, the status of, and efforts associated with, the promotion of regional and international data sharing are described. The value associated with the combination of monitoring, data sharing and cooperation between relevant agencies are realized through the services that can be provided. Finally, the efforts of the hydrological community to provide hydrological services, the importance of a quality management framework for the collection and presentation of data, the development of associated information systems, data registries, and web services for data sharing are emphasized.

In order to manage our freshwater resources in a sustainable manner, we must learn from the mistakes of the past and support the collection of hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic data into future. This requires two actions: (1) ensuring the technological development of monitoring stations and the data and information derived from them; and (2) improving the collection, processing, and presentation of these data through innovative new technologies.

### K-2212a-03

#### Responding to the Challenges of Water Security: the Eighth Phase of the International Hydrological Programme 2014-2021

B. Jimenez-Cisneros (1)

(1) UNESCO, IHP, Paris, France

This paper presents the major water challenges at global, regional and local level, including adaptation to climate change, based on the AR5 IPCC findings. It relates how the International Hydrological Programme (IHP) will respond in its VIIIth Phase to water-related risks and seize opportunities to contribute to water security at all levels. Cooperation between science and innovation and policy lie at the core of this strategy.

Management of natural resources must draw on science and innovation to be sustainable. From this perspective, the UNESCO-IHP Member States periodically define priorities for research, technological development, innovation and education. To implement the priorities in a coordinated manner, Member States works with the IHP Secretariat based at UNESCO HQ, as well as the UNESCO "Water Family", consisting of UNESCO-IHE, a Category I Centre located in the Netherlands; the World Water Assessment Programme, based in Italy, which produces the UN World Water Development Report; thirty Category II Centres under the auspices of UNESCO and thirty-five water Chairs around the globe.

IHP's role in this context is to put in place procedures for the use of knowledge and innovation to adapt to climate changes impacts in the water sector, and to increase resilience to water-related disasters.

### O-2212a-01

#### River flood risk and climate change

Z. Kundzewicz (1)

(1) Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Department of Climate and Water Resources, Poznan, Poland

River floods are an important problem area related to freshwater resources, at any spatial scale - from local to global. More than 10% of the global population are currently living in flood-prone areas and about 1% of the global population are, on average, exposed to floods each year. Average global flood damage reaches tens of billions of US$ and the number of fatalities amounts to thousands. Flood losses are higher in developed countries, while relative fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries.

Observations of changes in climate, hydrological /
terrestrial, and socio-economic systems influencing flood risk are examined. Despite the diagnosed extreme-precipitation based signal, and its possible link to changes in flood patterns, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls, will increase. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in intense rainfall would contribute to increases in precipitation-generated flooding, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected in the warmer climate. Increase of flood hazard is projected over many areas.

Further, model-based projections for the future are critically discussed. Projected changes from both global and regional studies indicate that it is likely that the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls, will increase. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in intense rainfall would contribute to increases in precipitation-generated flooding, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected in the warmer climate. Increase of flood hazard is projected over many areas.

Studies that project future flood losses and casualties indicate that, when no adaptation is undertaken, future anthropogenic climate change is likely to lead to increasing flood losses, alongside the increase in exposure linked to ongoing economic development, and the total increase would depend on the degree of warming.

Finally, uncertainty in our understanding of past floods and projections for the future is reviewed, with identification of gaps in knowledge. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and presently we have only little confidence in numerical projections of flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change. Attention is drawn to the fact that over less than a decade, projections of flood hazard in Europe have dramatically changed. This is of vast practical relevance, hence interpretation of such changes has to be sought, related to both different climate scenarios and different modeling approaches.

## O-2212a-02

# Adaptation to changing water demand and climates in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of groundwater

R. Taylor (1)

(1) University College London, Geography, London, United Kingdom

Freshwater demand in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to increase substantially in coming decades with projected rises in land under irrigation and water volumes required for domestic and industrial purposes. Anthropogenic warming is projected to further amplify variability in rainfall and river discharge that is already the most extreme in the world. Cumulative metrics of freshwater availability (e.g. water stress index, relative water demand) misrepresent the 'water crisis' in SSA as they greatly exaggerate freshwater demand, define renewable freshwater resources in terms of mean river discharge and, critically, exclude groundwater storage. Total groundwater storage in Africa (~0.66 million km³) is more than 100 times annual renewable freshwater resources, and more than 20 times the volume of freshwater stored in African lakes. Although substantial quantities of fossil groundwater in Africa have long been known to exist and are heavily exploited in arid landscapes remote from people (e.g. Great Man-Made River Project), less well understood is the comparatively small (equivalent) to water depth of 0.5m) but vital groundwater storage that underlies much of SSA where people live. The extent to which this estimated groundwater storage is both accessible and predictable remains unclear. Recent research based on ground-based observations in semi-arid and humid areas of Tanzania and Uganda reveals the strong dependence of groundwater recharge on heavy rainfall events (>10 mm per day) and extreme rain events associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consequently, the shift to fewer but heavier rainfall events projected under climate change may enhance groundwater recharge while reducing rain-fed soil moisture and exacerbating flooding. Under such circumstances, increased use of groundwater resources not only to supplement soil

moisture through irrigation but also to meet increased freshwater demand may prove a hydro-logical adaptation in SSA. Increased reliance upon groundwater resources has led to groundwater depletion of regional aquifer systems in the USA, China and India through competitive abstraction and aquifer mismanagement. In contrast, aquifer systems underlying much of SSA are localized and characterized by low transmissivities and low storage. 'Small is beautiful' since these systems greatly restrict the impact of climate change, and unregulated groundwater use by the witnessed in other groundwater-dependent countries and enable low-intensity abstraction for which the impacts of overuse are largely localized. Thus, the prevailing geology naturally resolves the 'Tragedy of the Commons' that complicates management of productive, regional aquifer systems. Indeed, the potential for distributed, low-intensity groundwater use strongly complements land tenure systems in SSA that are characterized by a large number of distributed, smallholder (< 1 hectare) plots. Groundwater in SSA therefore represents a low-cost, distributed and potentially renewable store of freshwater that can enable many communities to adapt to changing water demand and climates. Two key physical challenges that currently constrain the realization of this potential are: (1) reducing the prohibitively high cost of drilling that currently impedes the development of groundwater by small landholders; (2) resolving the aggregated impact of multiple low-intensity groundwater users to ensure the continuity of groundwater supplies and groundwater-dependent ecosystems.

## O-2212a-03

# Groundwater on North Sea islands in a future climate - a geophysical approach

H. Wiederhold (1)

(1) Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics, Hannover, Germany

For the North Sea Region climate change scenarios predict a shift of precipitation to the winter season leading to an enhanced impact of competitive, unregulated groundwater use. Additionally a sea level rise is expected leading to a new balance of freshwater and groundwater in the subsurface with consequences for, e.g., water supply, wetland drainage, construction stability. In the EU Interreg project CLIWAT (climate and water) the consequences of climate change to the groundwater systems were investigated in seven project areas in Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium (CLIWAT Working Group 2011, Hinsby et al. 2012). Here the approach is shown exemplarily for the German North Sea island Borkum (Sulzbacher et al. 2012, Wiederhold et al. 2013).

The main challenge in the study of coastal aquifers in Northern Germany is the freshwater/saltwater environment. The water supply of the North Sea offshore islands is in many cases restricted to a freshwater lens and intrusion of seawater is a major constraint on groundwater utilization. To study the impact of climate change on the freshwater lens of a barrier island, a density-dependent groundwater model was developed. The structure and parameters of this model were designed using information from boreholes and various geophysical and hydrogeological investigations. To characterize the hydrogeophysical setting of a freshwater/saltwater system, we need a description of the actual situation including temporal changes in the freshwater/saltwater transition zone. This concerns the study of water salinity and its changes. Due to the strong contrast in electrical conductivity between seawater and freshwater, resistivity and electromagnetic methods are most suitable to map salinity in the subsurface. To overcome ambiguity in interpretation, the combination with methods such as nuclear magnetic resonance or seismics turned out to be successful.

This data were used to generate a hydraulic model for density-dependent groundwater modelling that is able to predict the long-term behaviour of the system under changing climatic conditions. To monitor the temporal behaviour, permanent resistivity installations are a cost-efficient alternative to repetitive soundings. The data acquired in periods of years or decades can help to improve the groundwater recharge and rising water. CLIWAT WORKING GROUP (2011): Groundwater in a Future Climate - The CLIWAT Handbook. ISBN: 87-7788-265-2, Central Denmark Region, Aarhus. http://cliwat.eu/xpdf/groundwater_in_a_future_climate.pdf
Hinsby, K., Auen, E., Oude Essink, G. H. P., de Louw,
P., Jørgensen, F., Siemon, B., Sonnenborg, T. O.,
Vandenbohede, A., Wiederhold, H., Guadagnini, A. &
Carrera, J. (Eds.) (2012): Assessing the impact of climate
change for adaptive water management in coastal regions.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, http://www.hydrol-earth-
syst-sci.net/special-issue149.html.

Sulzbacher, H., Wiederhold, H., Siemon, B., Grinat, M., Igel, J., Burschil, T., Günther, T. & Hinsby, K. (2012): Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods. Hydrol. Earth Syst., 16, 3621-3643, doi:10.5194/hess-16-3621-2012.

Wiederhold, H., Sulzbacher, H., Grinat, M., Günther, T.,
Igel, J., Burschil, T. & Siemon, B. (2013): Hydrogeophysical
characterization of freshwater/saltwater systems - case
study: Borkum Island, Germany. First Break, 31, 109-117.

## 2212a-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2212a-01

#### Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System

**EHM. Ahmed (1)**

(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable
development, Cairo, Egypt

The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world's largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara Desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa, it covers a land area under boarders for Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad. The geographical position between latitude 14°-33° north; longitude 19°-34° east. It contains and stored water volume 150.000 km2.

Many studies were made looking for the hydro geological
setting of the area's aquifer; its results indicated that litho
logical characteristics and tectonic settings are having a
substantial effect on groundwater flow patterns and the
area's overall aquifer potentiality.

Many surface bodies and groundwater traverse boundaries
with no restrictions; any action which may be caused by
one country could affect the water resources, and also
could vary in significant consequences to the quality or
quantity of water in another country.

In sub-Saharan Africa, freshwater withdrawals for agriculture are less than in Asia, Europe and North America. Also, estimation of freshwater demand assume annual withdrawals for irrigate and industry which are 20 times that required for domestic water use. Groundwater in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa can play a strategic role in adapting to changing freshwater availability and improving food production and security through groundwater-fed irrigation.

The actual withdrawal rates as follows: Egypt draw 1029
Million m3/yr; Libya 851 Million m3/yr; Sudan 406 Million
m3/yr and Chad 137 Million m3/yr. There're two different
systems because of different water bearing strata; The
Nubian Aquifer System (NAS), the second system is the
Post Nubian Aquifer System (PNAS).

One of the great project that consumption a huge amounts
of Nubian Aquifer Groundwater that made by Libya and
called "The Great River", which be constructed on 1980.
Withdraw water for municipal, industrial and agricultural
use should be enough to produce adequate water and
food to meet the countries own needs, it reduces the
dependency on imports from foreign market.

So, we have to manage and implement a good convention
for states that sharing in the same aquifer to control their
draw and to implement a good plan to recharge the same
aquifer using floods and other resources.

### P-2212a-02

#### Green and Blue Water Impact Assessment under AR5 Climate Change Scenarios in Asian Monsoon Region

**D. Bae (1) ; M. Lee (2)**

(1) Professor, Sejong University, Civil & Environmental
Engr., Director, center for climate change adaptation for
water resources, Seoul, 143-747, Republic of Korea; (2) PhD

candidate student, Sejong University, Department of civil
engineering, Seoul, 143-747, Republic of Korea

The evaluation of continental-scale water availability is an important issue for sharing and distribution of transboundary water resources. Water resources are abundant in some regions, but water scarcity has been a major disaster in many other regions. In particular, the water resources in Asia monsoon region are more important, because they provide many benefits but also cause serious drought problems. There are various reasons for these water-related disasters, but the current climate change will be one of the critical triggers for the upcoming water scarcity.

In this sense, the understanding of climate change impact on green and blue waters and the development of climate change adaptation framework for water resources over the region will be important and urgent issue. The objectives of this study are to investigate the future climate change impacts on green and blue waters in addition to the changes of temperature and precipitation and to delineate the highly variable regions under future AR5 climate change scenarios in the Asian Monsoon region. Several GCMs representing the better performance in this region were selected and used for climate change projections. The change factors method with bilinear interpolation method was used to project climate change at 0.5 degree horizontal grid resolution. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model was employed to project runoff using future climate change scenarios. Average temperature, precipitation, green and blue waters were projected for all future periods i.e. 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These findings can be useful for the better implementation of climate change adaptation strategies and wise water resources management in this region.

### P-2212a-03

#### Spatial distribution of the vegetation and rainfall over West Africa during the last three decades (1981-2012) and associated atmospheric patterns

A. Bamba (1) ; A. Diedhiou (2) ; B. Dieppois (3) ; P. Thierry
(4) ; A. Konare (5) ; A. Diawara (6) ; B. Kamagata (7) ; S.
Issiaka (8) ;

1. Université Nangui Abrogoua, SGE, Abidian, Ivory Coast;

2. Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE -
University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France;

3. Université de Rouen, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France; (4)

4. University of Grenoble-Alpes, LTHE, Grenoble, France; (5)

5. University Felix Houpkeuht Boigny, Cocody, Ufr ssst, Abidjan,

6. University Felix Houpkeuht Boigny - Cocody
Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (7) Université Nangui
Abrogoua, Laboratoire de geosciences et environnement,

Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (8) Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Ufr
sge, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Decadal variability of the rainfall and the vegetation
over West Africa is revisited from 1981 to 2012 using
Climate Research Unit (CRU) observation rainfall data
and Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)
from NOAA. From decade 80s to 90s, we observe a
significant return to wetter conditions over West Africa
confirmed during the decade 2000's (00's) except over
Central Benin and all the western side of Nigeria where
there are a decrease in annual rainfall magnitude. From
decades 80s to 90s, we observe a regreening of the
Central Sahel and Soudano-Sahel regions. From decade
90s to 00s, this regreening belt is observed toward the
South and the Coastal areas, mainly over the Guinea
Coast, Soudano-Guinean and Western Sahel regions.
Factors of the atmosphere associated with the vegetation
and rainfall changes over West Africa during the last three
decades was investigated: During the last two decades,
the West African monsoon (at 925hPa) and the
Tropical Easterly Jet (at 200hPa) were stronger than in 80's, and
the African Easterly Jet (at 700hPa) is weaker. This synoptic
configuration is known to be favorable to wet conditions.

### P-2212a-04

#### Synthesis Report on Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment over Niger River Basin

**G. Bogale (1)**

(1) ACMAD, Climate and environment, Niamey, Niger,
Republic of
The Niger River Basin encompasses an area of 2.2 million square kilometer from this only 1.5 million square kilometer is hydrologically active. Development activities are going on along the basin such as mining, construction of dams for generating electricity and irrigation. The construction of dams is increasing across the Niger River basin by riparian countries. Most of the riparian countries recorded economical growth in recent years. The sustainability of the economical development and the achievement of million development goals are threatened by climate change.

In this paper, we tried to assess climate change vulnerability over the basin. The climate of the region varies from tropical humid climate to arid climate and one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The Basin suffered from desiccation in 1970s and 1980s and catastrophic rainfall floods in 1997 and 2000. The GDP of Mali and Niger by 9% and 18% respectively. The inner delta is one of the most vulnerable parts of the river basin because of the dependency of millions of lives and livelihoods including the pastoralist on it.

Studies of National Adaptation Programme of Action of riparian countries indicated that the surface temperature increased by less than 10C in the second half of the 20th century. The surface temperature is expected to rise between 3–60C at the end of the 21st century under different socio-economic scenarios. The decadal and multi-decadal observed variability of the rainfall in the Niger River basin was clearly figured out in the national and international reports. The rainfall variability in the Niger River Basin is associated with the sea surface temperature of global oceans, ENSO and complex interacting processes including land surface and desert dust aerosols.

Among the hydro-meteorological disasters of sub-Saharan Africa, 25% of the disasters occurred in West Africa which is the second vulnerable region after East Africa in the period 1974–2003. The number of days with heavy rainfall is expected to increase in 21st century in West Africa. Furthermore, the projected mean sea level rise coupled with land subsidence due to the oil and gas extraction in the Niger delta will threaten the existing physical, biological and socioeconomic systems.

Rain-fed agriculture is dominated the Niger River Basin which is highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The population growth compounded with climate variability and change is a major challenge for agriculture sector to meet the demand. The major impacts of climate change are: (i) reduction in crop yield and total failure of the crops as well as the death of livestock and reduction of productivity.

The Niger River basin is considered as one of the basin which is affected by fresh water shortage in West Africa and the River itself influenced by the ground water base flow. Climate variability and change impacted the river basin in the past. A significant decrease in rainfall amount resulted in two fold decrease in the surface and sub-surface runoff. The projection of rainfall in West Africa is uncertain due to the disparity of climate models; however, the water sector will be under stress as result of population growth, urbanization, water for agricultural growth and land use change.

The basin is affected by climate sensitive diseases such as malaria, meningitis, cholera, dysentery and diarrhea. The expected increase in surface temperature will exacerbate the incidence of climate sensitive disease in the basin. The multi-model forecast which consider climate factor only as an outbreak of malaria revealed that the malaria belt zone will shift 10 to 20 south wards in West Africa.

P-2212a-05

# Impacts of climate change on the performance indexes of a water resource system: A case study of Boura reservoir in Burkina Faso

T. Fowe (1); B. Ibrahim (2); J.E. Paturel (3); H. Karambiri (1)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic department, Kadiogo, Burkina Faso; (2) West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) IRD, HydroSciences Montpellier, Abdijan, Ivory Coast

In developing regions like Africa, availability and access to freshwater largely determines patterns of economic growth and social development. Burkina Faso, as others Sahelosudanian countries pledged for some decades to control water resources after the severe droughts that occurred during the 1970s and 1980s through the construction of small reservoirs. Thus, thousands of small reservoirs dot the landscape and they are used for multiple purposes with especially irrigation in order to increase food production. The Boura reservoir, located in the southern of Burkina Faso, is a representative pilot site of many small reservoirs in the Volta Basin in West Africa. The ungaged catchment area upstream of the Boura dam of about 150 km2 is lying to the Centre West Region, Burkina Faso and Upper West Region, Ghana. This study aims to assess the performance indexes such as reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the Boura reservoir under the climate change conditions.

The methodology is organized in steps: (i) Firstly, climate change scenarios for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 relative to the reference period 1971–2000 were projected by using the outputs of regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre Atmosphere model, version 4) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); (ii) Secondly, the impact of climate change was then investigated on the input runoff of the Boura reservoir by using the hydrological model GRAD daily lumped four-parameter for the future periods and also on the crop water requirement of the irrigation schemes downstream the Boura dam; (iii) Thirdly, the simulation of reservoir performance in the delivery of agricultural water demand was implemented by using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model.

The analysis of the inter-annual average changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PE) between the future 2030 and 2070 (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and the reference period (1971–2000) showed upward trends with increases up to +23% for rainfall and +9% for PET, dependent on the RCP emission scenario (RCP4.5 or RCP8.5).

These projected changes in rainfall and PET will cause higher inter-annual variability of future water to the Boura reservoir compared to the reference period, necessitating increased reservoir capacity to meet future irrigation water demands. However, the performance indexes of system revealed that failures in agricultural water demand satisfaction would be observed in the future periods. In terms of overall performance, the reliability and vulnerability indexes decreased in the future relative to the reference period, especially for the socio-economic development scenario with an increase in agricultural water demand under climate change conditions.

This approach enable a comprehensive understanding of the functioning of a water storage reservoir under future climate scenarios and can also be a robust tool to predict future challenges faced by water supply systems under climate change conditions.

P-2212a-06

# Result of numerical modelling of groundwater resource in the Shiraki catchment

M. George (1); N. Zhukova (1); M. Todadze (1)
(1) Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Jakavishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Eastern Georgia encounters, due to its semiarid climate, a big deficit of 1040 million cubic meters of water for irrigation and domestic use. One of the most important examples is the agricultural area of Shiraki Plain, which occupies over 80.000 km2 on a large, partly artesian aquifer of the Alazani basin and on the upland synclines between the rivers Alazani and Tchad (1). In order to assessment water resource, numerical model of groundwater hydrodynamics was elaborated for this area based on the conceptual model, which based on the provisional data (geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, hydrological, etc). Model of the aquifer have been processed by special software Visual Modflow Package. In order to assessment water resource, a numerical model of groundwater was elaborated for Shiraki area. It is consists of 3 layers. Each layer represents a porous material with different infiltration properties. The model was calibrated in transient transport mode to tritium concentration measured in boreholes and springs located in Shiraki area. Tritium was assigned as a single mobile species, not reacting with chemical elements and concentrated in water, what allowed determining the residence time of groundwater flow. The model estimated
discharge and recharge zones, groundwater flow directions and velocities as well as groundwater age for Shiraki area. It is recommended to enhance the use of waters from the karstic formations as alternative drinking water sources.

P-2212a-07

## Flooded area characterization and loss estimates for improving the water balance of the niger inland delta, mali

M. Ibrahim (1); D. Wisser (2); A. Abel (3)

(1) University Abomey Calavi, WASCAL, GRP. Water Resources and Climate Change, Cotonou, Benin; (2) University of Bonn, Center for development research (zef), Bonn, Germany; (3) Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Graduate research program on climate change and water resources, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Water availability is an ongoing challenge for West African countries in general, and the Niger River basin in particular. The Niger Inland Delta (NID) has experienced annual flood events from the Niger and Bani Rivers. During such events, the flooded area can cover 40,000 km², and extend to 350 km long and 100 km wide in Mali. While these NID events can have considerable influence on downstream flow regimes due to water loss significantly impacting water availability, the processes that occur in NID are not fully understood. In particular, the development of many hydrological models of Niger Basin runoff. Though several studies in this region have developed conceptual models to represent hydrological processes in the system, the models have been criticized for their limitations and unsophisticated concepts for explicitly representing all the hydrological processes. This paper discusses an attempt to better assess the NID hydrological processes by considering more physical information about the system, and incorporating wetland processes into an existing hydrological model to improve model simulations of the basin.

The approach illustrates how flooded surface area estimates from large amounts of remote sensing data can be used to monitor flood dynamics with adequate spatial and temporal resolution. Characteristics of the extent of the flooded area are determined from monthly scale inflow levels data, and flooded areas within a non-linear regression based model. Previous correlations between flow levels and flooded areas were refined to account for the hysteresis as flooding recedes, and the timing of the area expansion. The model of the spatiotemporal extent of the flooding over the NID shows that the flooded areas varied between 25,000km2 in wet periods and 2,000 km2 in dry periods, resulting in actual evapotranspiration loss of between 17 km3 and 10 km3. The contribution of water abstraction from irrigated fields and direct precipitation assessments of flooded areas refined the NID water balance and infiltration estimates. The results of the timing and extent of the flood and water loss across the NID helped determine both the development of storage in one year, and the year-to-year variations. Furthermore, information about the NID flood dynamics and water budget can be used to develop and calibrate a specific model of the NID, and thereby account for the loss in hydrological models.

P-2212a-08

## Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Water Resources in the Context of Climate Change (A Case Study of Urban Area through Multi-Temporal Remotely Sensed Data and GIS)

KN. Joshi (1)

(1) Institute of Institute of Development Studies, Natural Resources Management and Environment (Remote Sensing), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

One of the many environmental problems incurred by climate change is creating a negative impact on water resources in urban areas. The effects of climate change on water quality and availability are significant, including shortages and contamination that directly affect health of people and proper functioning of urban development and government. Unplanned growth of urban area further deteriorates the situation. The present paper provides an overview to some of the effects of rainfall variability due to climate change coupled with urbanization on water quality as well as quantity in Jaipur urban Agglomerates, the most populous area in the state of Rajasthan (India). The study

has been carried out using Indian remote sensing data, Survey of India topographical sheets and GIS techniques.

During the course of study, a series of thematic maps covering climatic parameters and anthropogenic activities have been prepared to depict the changes in land use pattern, surface hydrology, geo-hydro-morphology, rainfall pattern and its impact on urban water resources. It was found that increasing pressure on population and urbanization, anthropogenic activities have made negative impact on water resources. It encroached upon lakes, rivers, streams, and ponds etc. in the vicinity of urban area. As a result, out of total 518 rivulets in urban area and surrounding, 13 first order, 37 second order and 10 are of third order stream are completely blocked by settlements (Total 60). Out of 2600 wells, 116 well/tube wells have stopped recharging due to increase in pavement area between years 1986 to 2003. Seven fresh water reservoirs have dried-up which were supplying drinking water to Jaipur city. The surface drainage network of rain water has been converted into municipal sewerage : Local source of water supply from surface as well as ground is closed due to scarcity of water. Recharge of ground water has stopped due to increased pavement area for urban development like infrastructure development, industrial development and other urban development activities.

Finally, it is suggested that by using remote sensing and GIS technique one can prepare an integrated plan for urban development in which surface water bodies can be protected which in turn would take care to recharge ground water and also provide the surface water in decentralized manner in the urban area.

P-2212a-09

## Developing adaptation strategies to face the impact of climate change on the freeshwater resources of India

SN. Krishnapillai (1)

(1) Nansen Environmental Research Centre (India), Kochi, Kerala, India

Major challenge associated with the management of freshwater resources in India is the abnormalities and uncertainties in climate. With changing climate, increasing water demands in the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors, and fast deterioration of the water resources, India is heading towards a water crisis. Life of millions living in climate sensitive river basins and wetlands make India one among the countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Drylands are potentially threatened by overuse, over-irrigation, and over-fertilization. Indian economy and life of the majority has been traditionally linked to agriculture, the largest consumer of water. Abnormalities in rainfall seriously affect water availability and agricultural production. Extreme hydrological conditions affect hydropower generation and industrial development. Increasing rainfall seasonality in certain parts reduces groundwater recharge and summer water availability. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms increasingly salinate coastal aquifers. In the Western Ghats Mountain area, increasing intensity of rainfall results in erosion and sedimentation, reducing reservoir capacity and summer flow in rivers. Retreat of Himalayan glaciers is likely to have large impact on water resources in entire north India. Water related health issues are worsening. Vector-borne and water-borne diseases extend into new areas. Even the heavy rainfall zones face serious water shortage as a result of drawbacks in water conservation and management. Most of the surface and groundwater resources are highly contaminated. Failure of availability of reliable water leads to socio-economic issues such as water disputes, migration, pricing of water that is unaffordable to millions and large investments for the adaptation and mitigation. Present economic growth is likely to be halted. India's preparedness for the effects of climate change is poor and India was too late to develop a climate policy. National policies including area only policies lack information on the effective implementation. Though several initiatives have been started in the water sector as part of adaption such as cleaning of major rivers, protection of wetlands, groundwater recharge and introduction of water efficient technologies in agriculture and industries, the progress is slow because of issues like lack of coordination of departments, weak and corrupt administrative mechanism, social issues and vested political interests. Vulnerable groups are often neglected in decision making and policy development. Projects lack transparency and
accountability. India urgently needs appropriate policies and strategies and an efficient implementation mechanism to face the challenges in water sector. A mix of traditional, environment-friendly methods and modern technologies in water conservation and quality improvement could perform better. This paper assesses the impact of climate change on water resources of India and its reflections on different sectors. Changes in water availability in two decades from now under an altered climate have been estimated using hydrological model, based on the projections of climate models. Existing policies and adaptation strategies have been critically reviewed to suggest guidelines for adaptation and mitigation measures in the water sector to face the impending water crisis.

<caption>P-2212a-10</caption>

## Key findings on groundwater and climate change from the UNESCO IHP GRAPHIC network

M. Leblanc (1); J. Gurdak, (2); A. Aureli, (3); T. Carvalho Resende (3); G. Faedo, (3); R. Taylor (4)

(1) University of Avignon, Department of hydrogeology, umr emmah, Avignon, France; (2) San Francisco State University, Department of earth and climate sciences, San Francisco, United States of America; (3) UNESCO, Division of water sciences, Paris, France; (4) University College London, Department of geography, London, United Kingdom

Groundwater is an essential resource. It provides baseflow to lakes and rivers and supports numerous terrestrial ecosystems during dry spells. Today groundwater is also paramount to freshwater and food supply. Globally it covers the demands for around 36% of domestic water and 40% of irrigation water requirements. Groundwater is often regarded as a natural resource for adaptation strategies to climate change. Aquifers often represent large stores of slowly evolving water. Groundwater has generally a lower variability and vulnerability than surface water. Groundwater resources are consequently more resilient to drought and the impact of human activities than surface water.

Under the International Hydrological Program (IHP), the UNESCO is home to a scientific network examining the relationships between groundwater resources and global change, called GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Change). The GRAPHIC community is composed of academics, researchers, government employees, and professionals from the water industry located across 34 countries. By encouraging and coordinating international collaboration, GRAPHIC aims to strengthen global research efforts on groundwater impacts from climate change and adaptation strategies. This presentation provides a geographic synopsis of progress made and lessons learned to date by the GRAPHIC network.

Through a number of case studies in a variety of climatic and geologic settings, GRAPHIC has identified challenges that are important when considering the inclusion of groundwater in climate change adaptation strategies. Though generally less responsive than surface water, groundwater can still be substantially impacted by climate change. The magnitude of this impact can vary greatly from region to region. At the same time, compounding effects from other global anthropogenic changes also impact groundwater. It is possible to identify a number of hotspots where groundwater may be particularly vulnerable to climate change and will require careful sustainable management.

Key lessons learnt from GRAPHIC network include the need to account for groundwater in 1) monitoring of freshwater resources; 2) climate models; 3) land surface and water models; and 4) the management of transboundary basins. There is a great need to include and more carefully consider groundwater into climate change adaptation schemes and strategies.

Future activities will include, amongst others, applying satellite gravimetry for evaluating trends in groundwater storage across large transboundary aquifers (TBAs) in regions where data access is very limited either because of data scarcity or accessibility. Such activities will contribute to establishing water budgets at aquifer scale for better-informed water management decisions and policies.

<caption>P-2212a-11</caption>

## Identifying Hydro-climatological Contributions to Hydrological Drought Formation with Uncertainty in Satellite Datasets: An Examination over the Poyang Lake Basin

Y. Liu (1)

(1) Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

Hydrological droughts are generally the combined consequences of hydro-climatological influences. Identification of the individual influences on drought formation is essential to effective drought prevention. The identification with the principle of water balance requires all the major hydro-climatological measures. However, it is impractical to measure all the components from ground observations. While satellite remote sensing now provides spatio-temporally consistent retrievals of the components over large regions, its relevant uncertainty often remains undocumented. The uncertainty may propagate into total water deficit which is a residual of water balance. It casts a shadow on the reliability of drought analysis. This study addresses the uncertainty for drought analysis, and proposes to use a signal-to-noise ratio for quantifying the reliability. The approach is examined with satellite datasets of evapotranspiration and soil moisture, in addition to station data of precipitation and river discharge, for the Poyang Lake Basin with an area of 162,000 km² for the periods of 2001–2010. Satellite datasets are processed for the cases with and without field validation. Hydrological drought events are identified with river discharge data for each of five sub-basins within the basin. The validated satellite datasets are used to quantify hydro-climatological contributions to individual drought events. The contributions are then compared to those from the datasets without validation. The results show that the difference in quantified contribution varies from 5–40% for the individual events in each sub-basins between the two cases. The signal-to-noise ratio is generally higher than 2.8, indicating the robustness and usefulness of the satellite datasets in water balance analysis for identifying hydro-climatological contributions to drought formation. The findings provide an approach to addressing hydrological droughts from water balance analysis, especially valuable for studying droughts under climate change with satellite datasets with limited accuracy.

<caption>P-2212a-12</caption>

## Degradation of the Nyong River by the climate changes (Cameroon)

PM. Mani Essomba (1)

(1) International Relations Institute of Cameroon, International Cooperation, Humanitarian Action and Sustainable Development, Yaoundé, Cameroon

Nyong is a river of the south- Cameroon, length of 640 km. It has its source 40 km in the east from the town of Abong- Mbang, in the large equatorial rain forest. It runs parallel to the lower course of Sanaga's river, following an east-west direction. It crosses the towns of Mbalmayo and Ayos and flows into the gulf of Petit Batanga, Guinea village located at 65 kilometres in the south-south-west of Edeä. Rapids of Sanaga have been for several years, the seat of a series of aggressions (overfishing, bush fires, deforestation, erosion of the banks, slitting, various pollution), which affects its medium of life and destroys its biodiversity. This constant rise of the dangers enabled possibly to conclude in an alarm and pessimistic way that: if nothing is done in the twenty next years, the river could disappear.

The Nyong river flows through a good part of the south- Cameroonian tableland. It nourishes approximately 4 million individuals. With the varied and formerly abundant natural resources, the river Nyong is about today in the process of undergoing an ecological disaster without precedent. This river has been for several years, the seat of a series of aggressions (overfishing, bush fires, deforestation, erosion of the banks, slitting, various pollution), which affects its medium of life and destroys its biodiversity. This constant rise of the dangers enabled possibly to conclude in an alarm and pessimistic way that: if nothing is done in the twenty next years, the river could disappear.

The conditions of flow of the river are unfavourable with its blooming, pollution, anthropic activities and the phenomena of eutrophication are hardly favourable to the survival of the hydrological rate of flow of the Centre and the South region. Lost in meanders of the forests of east-Cameroon at the Atlantic coast, this river is dying.
Because, attacked by the combined action of the man and the climate changes.

This river with almost still water on most of its course dies blackened by the drying of silts. The first drawback is the action of the human being, through his demographic pressure on the banks, the deforestation of the valley of the river for cultures, the discharge of waste by the sawmills and their abattoirs, the financing of the Mfoundi river via the Mefouondi river, carrying all kinds of pollution of the town of Yaoundé, in an absence of an environmental culture. The nature is also one of the causes. Climate changes alternating draining of affluent and devastated floods. We are not mentioning these unforeseen elements, concerning the invasion of part of the bed of the river by the hyacinth water and other luxuriant vegetables. And yet, the river Nyerong brings satisfaction to the needs of its residents. Furthermore, his economy based on fishing, especially the fishing of the "kanga" and collects of other halelouie resources. It is also harnessing, the industrial treatment and the drain of its water to the taps of Yaoundé. Then, the question that brings up these findings is: What to do, to lend the river Nyerong his patent letters of nobility?

## P-2212a-13

### L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation : Un moyen de contrrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

#### B. Mouhouche (1)

(1) Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Génie Rural (Hydraulique Agricole), Alger, Algeria

Algeria is ranked among the 17 countries that suffer most from lack of water worldwide. Indeed, with less than 300,000 cubic metres of renewable water, Algeria has less than 30% of the theoretical scarcity threshold set by the World Bank in 1000 m3 /hab./an.

Being unable to expand its agricultural land UAA and / or increase irrigated areas, to fill the food gap, Algeria resort to massive food imports, especially cereals and their derivatives.

Added to these non-food agricultural products.

These imports, although they represent a major financial drain for the country, they have at least one positive aspect represented by the virtual impressive amounts of water they provide to Algeria estimated at over 40 billions m3 2012.

It is in this framework that guides our study in which we try to quantify these virtual amounts of water that contribute greatly to temporarily relieve the country of its water shortage problem.

Keywords: Water scarcity, food security, water resources, virtual water, Algeria.

## P-2212a-14

### Climate Change and water resources in the Maghreb

#### B. Laignel (1); Z. Nouaceur (2); I. Turki (1)

(1) University of Rouen, UMR 6143 M2C, Mont Saint Aignan, France; (2) University of Rouen, Umr 6143 idees, Mont Saint Aignan, France

The Mediterranean area, known as hot spot area of Climate Change by IPCC, is expected to increase mean annual temperatures between +2,2°C and +5,1 °C, a decrease mean annual rainfall between -5 and -35 % and an increased of extreme events, in 2100. The combination of Climate Change and human impact could lead to water shortage for 290 million people (Plan Bleu of United Nations), particularly in North Africa.

The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the climate change and its effects on the water resources, at the Maghreb scale for the temperature and rain evolutions (30 synoptic stations located in the North and center of the 3 countries of the Maghreb, from 1970 to 2013) and 5 watersheds for the water resource (Soummam and Khébir Rhuel in Algeria, Tensif and Sebou in Morocco, Kh Ben en Tunisie). This study is performed in the framework of the 2 AUF and PHC Maghreb projects on the evolution of the water resource in Maghreb.

At the Maghreb scale and the studied watersheds, we observe an increase of minimum and maximum annual temperatures from the 80s. We observe 3 periods on the rainfall time series: a humid phase before the 80s, then several years of drought from 80s to the early 2000s, then a return of more humid phase with more of storm events.

However, it is difficult to distinguish and qualify the respect of the climate change and anthropogenic impact on the evolution of the water resources. The combined effects of these two factors led to a decline of the quantity and deterioration of the quality of water resources. Indeed, the groundwater, the main drinking water resource in the Maghreb, show a strong decrease, which can reach -50 cm to -1 m per year, and a deterioration of the water quality by infiltration of the anthropogenic pollutants from surface water (rivers) and by a water salinization in the coastal aquifer (related to the seawater intrusion), such as the examples of the Hauz and Sais aquifers in Morocco (Marrakech and Fès regions) and Cap Bon aquifer (North of Tunisia).

Nevertheless, a study of the hydrological variability carried out on 2 watersheds (Soummam and Tensif), by wavelet analysis, showed similar energy bands or variability modes (1, 2, 3, 5, 15 years) in rainfall, streamflow and aquifer piezometry. In 2007 and 8-15 years. Moreover, 3 major temporal discontinuities are observed around 1970-1975, 1980-1985, 1990-1995 in all times series. The 1970-1975 and 1990-1995 discontinuities were also found in other hydrosystems on both sides of the the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, in various climatic and geomorphological contexts (USA, NW Europe, N Africa), in different hydrological compartments (surface and groundwater) and at 5-7 and 8-15 years. The Seine watershed (streamflow and ultraviolet aquifer piezometry) and small high-Norman watersheds, Mississippi, Colorado and Texas small watersheds. Therefore, these discontinuities can be described as global disruptions. In addition, they are also present in climate indices NAO and SOI and can therefore be described as climatic discontinuities at the global scale. There is no satisfactory explanation of the phenomenon causing these discontinuities, although the first discontinuity coincides with the second phase of global warming (which also began in the early 1970s) and the second coincides with an apparent intensification of warming. However, the link between these phenomena is not yet established.

## P-2212a-15

### Impact of climate change and overexploitation in semi-aid areas on the water resources. Example of Essaouira Basin (Morocco)

#### S. Ouhamdouch (1); M. Bahir (2); A. Souhel (3); M. Paula (4)

(1) Cadi Ayyad University, Geology, Marrakech, Morocco; (2) ENS Marrakech, Geology, Marrakech, Morocco; (3) ENS Marrakech, Marrakech, Morocco; (4) Université de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal

The Maghreb countries Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are affected by the climate change, which is manifested by the tendency of the temperatures and decreased rainfall. This has several negative effects on natural resources such as water resources. Among them: (i) The scarcity of water resources. (ii) The increased salinization of soil and, consequently, the salinity of waters. (iii) The drought, which leads to soil erosion, which causes the siltation of the dam and, consequently, the decrease in the rate of mobilization. Overexploitation of coastal aquifers and pollution vulnerability are among the main problems related to water resources. (iv) The increased demand for water resources management in arid and semi-aid regions threatened by desertification being the only source for agricultural and public water supply. The behaviour study of the aquifer system in the Essaouira basin (the object of our study) in the face of climate change, based on the interpretation of hydrochemical data (major elements), piezometric and isotopic (180, 2H, 3H and 14C) was used to determine the degree of impact of climate change on aquifer system. The follow-up of the quality evolution of groundwater in the Essaouira Basin through the electrical conductivity and the chlorides concentration showed that this quality is in close relationship with the vagaries of the weather. Changes in groundwater levels in the study area, brings up these levels would decline over the years to rainfall deficit and would renew for excess. The use of the technique of
isotopic tools showed that the recharge of this aquifer system is recent and carried out by the direct infiltration of rainwater.

## P-2221a-16

# Salinisation: A social, ecological and health issue in the Bengal Delta

M. Rahman (1); PK. Streetfield (1); J. Levi (2)

(1) Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Center for population, urbanization and climate change, Dhaka, Bangladesh; (2) Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial college, London, United Kingdom

The Bengal Delta is formed by three major rivers: Ganges, Brahmaputra and Megha. This region is particularly vulnerable to climate change and densely populated with 650 million inhabitants. Climate change causes a complex multitude of social, ecological and health problems. Salinisation (referring to the buildup of salts in both soil and water) may be exacerbated and amplified by climate change and is a growing threat to this delta.

Sea level rise, land subsidence, rapid transition from agricultural land use to shrimp cultivation, upstream fresh water extraction (which normally flushes out saline sea water), increasing cyclone and storm surges all contribute to increased salt intrusion in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh; constituting the majority of the Bengal Delta. Salinisation affects both rural and urban coastal communities through changes in livelihood, contamination of water sources, reduced agricultural productivity, and declining trends in ecosystem services. Furthermore, salinization adds a huge public health burden both upon individual health (hypertension may just be the tip of the iceberg) and population level social and economic development.

Recent research has explored broad impacts of salinization in this region, however, we lack a concise summary of the evidence required for the formation of much needed meaningful solutions. This paper is a critical systematic review to assess and condense salinization's impact on life, livelihood and wellbeing of coastal populations. Different community based adaptation options will be discussed and conclusions will be drawn from a systematic literature review, recent field work and results from several ongoing project experiences.

## P-2221a-17

# The Implications of Climate Change on Water Quality and Ecosystem of Nasser Lake, Egypt

M. Rashed (1)

(1) Aswan University, Faculty of Science, Aswan, Egypt

Climate change can affect water resources and its water cycle. Through it climate change can affect the quantity and quality of water resources available to meet human and environmental demands, affecting water availability and quality for flora and fauna, lower minimum flows in rivers, drinking water intake, energy production (hydropower), thermal plant cooling and navigation. High Dam Lake is one of the largest man-made Lake in Africa. It includes Lake Nasser which extends for about 330 Km in Egypt. Lake Nasser water is a major source used for drinking, irrigation and domestic purposes in Egypt. Aquatic ecosystems of the Lake region support delicate, deeply interconnected webs of life which are highly adapted to the physical, chemical and biochemical characteristics and cycles of the lakes themselves. Warmer water temperatures affect physical, chemical, and biological processes. It reduces dissolved oxygen concentrations, which are a critical aquatic ecosystem requirement. Changes in rate of chemical reactions in the water column, sediment-water interface, and water-atmosphere interface are also expected. The present study aims to monitoring climatic change on Lake Nasser through the past 20 years (since the year 1991). The monitoring includes the physicochemical parameters (Temperature, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, CO2 and Nitrate and other chemical parameters) in Lake water and sediment, and fish since the year 1991 to the year 2014. The obtained results indicated that the Lake water temperature increases from the year 1991 to the year 2013, dissolved oxygen decreased from 10.8 to 6.1 ppm. Also, other parameters affected by temperature.

## P-2221a-18

# Impact of future global climate and land use and land cover changes in Amazonian run-of-river hydropower plants

J. Tomasella (1); D. Rodriguez (1); RRDCS. Von (1); GS. Mohor (1); JJL. Queira (1); L.G. Lopes (1)

(1) INPE, CCST, Cachoeira Paulista/SP, Brazil

Brazilian strategic interest in Amazonia includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country's growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Of the total amount invested in the Amazon until 2020, 37% will be allocated in the construction of hydropower dams, which correspond to 45% of planned energy expansion during the period. Due to environmental constraints, hydropower dams under construction in Amazonia are run-of-river (ROR) type plants, thus, is with a limited storage reservoir to minimize the area of natural forest to be flooded, and widely recognize that ROR plants dramatically reduce environmental local impacts compared to traditional large dams, they are subject to seasonal river flows. Considering that the Amazon Basin is characterized by high interannual variability, and have been recently affected by the occurrence of extreme droughts (for instance, 2005 and 2010), it is clear that the generation capacity of ROR plant could potentially be seriously compromised during extreme events. Besides this, IPCC scenarios indicate that climate change can seriously impact the hydrological regime South American rivers, which might also affect the distribution of biomes in South America due to the synergistic combination of impacts due to both land cover (deforestation, forest fires and fragmentation) and global climate changes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to critically assess how different global climate change scenarios associated with regional land-use and land-cover changes caused by deforestation could affect the power generation of run-of-river power plants under construction in Amazonia. Power generation was analyzed in the following ROR hydropower plants: Estreito, on the Tocantins River Basin, Santo Antônio dam, in the Madeira River Basin, Serra da Mesá in the Tapajós River Basin.

To achieve this goal, we calibrated the MHD-INPE hydrological model for the period 1970-1990 using hydrological, meteorological and soil data from different sources from Brazil, Bolivia and Peru. We analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by different climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011-2099. Finally we assessed the impacts of climate change on annual energy production based on the differences in the power duration curve - PDC produced by each scenario. The PDC of each scenario was estimated using hydraulic head and efficiency of each plant constrained by the minimum flow, under which the plant cannot operate, and the plant installed capacity. The use of PDCs allow to analyze the impacts not only of the annual average discharge, but also the effects of seasonal changes of climate. Despite of the differences among climate projections, results show that the climate change projections lead to a decreasing annual energy production and an increasing idle time at hydropower plants. Even when it is not possible to conclude about which projected climate scenario is the more appropriate, this work suggests to assess climate change impacts on energy production through an exploratory analyses, evaluating the robustness of the plant design under several plausible scenarios.

## P-2221a-19

# Impacts of climate change in epicontinental water systems of Mexico

P. Valdespino (1); J. Alcocer, (2); G. Vilaclara, (3); O. Escolero, (4); Ll. Falcón, (5); M. Mazari, (6); J. Ramirez-Zierold, (7); M. Merino-Barría, (7)

(1) Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Mexico DF, Mexico; (2) FES Iztacal, UNAM, Edo. de México, Mexico; (3) Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico; (4) Instituto de Geología, UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico; (5) Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico;
(6) Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico; (7) Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico.

Continental aquatic systems in Mexico exhibit a high vulnerability to climate change. In particular, variation in the patterns of precipitation and drought associated to climate change threatens both: a) the availability and quality of freshwater in the vast arid extension of the country (North and Center Mexico) and b) the population and infrastructure in the Southern region o the country, were heavy rains cause severe flood events. Aquifer overexploitation is also a crescent problem, associated to a fast growing population in the central highlands and to potential pollution in the karstic Yucatan peninsula, where groundwater is the only source of freshwater.

The effects of climate change on Mexican inland waters are mainly related to five processes: 1) changes in the water level of the systems and associated ecological impacts, 2) changes in the thermal structure and mixing regimes of lakes and reservoirs, 3) increased trophic state and intensification of hypoxia, 4) eutrophication and toxic algal blooms, and 5) increased respiration that turns the metabolic balance towards net heterotrophy. In particular, the processes of salinization and shifts from sinks to sources of atmospheric carbon in tropical inland waters are discussed, although the data to build these analyses are still scarce and heterogeneous. We outline that research on tropical cyanobacteria metabolic treats may provide relevant elements to understand the increasingly threat of noxious phytoplankton blooms.

Here we highlight the research lines that need to be reinforced in order to create the strategies for preservation and management of freshwater in a sustainable way: 1) carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes should be estimated in ecosystem to basin scales, and should be incorporated into long term studies of water quality, 2) pollutant assessment as well as water treatment programs must increase significantly (only 37% of the Mexican municipalities have water treatment plants), and 3) systematic monitoring programs should be included in country-scale planning.

Diverse social issues (e.g. inequality, corruption, security and drug dealing) threaten the possibility of coping with the challenges that climate change involve for continental aquatic systems in Mexico.

P-2212a-20

Analysis of groundwater level historical data to detect climate change impact in France

JF. Vernoux (1); JJ. Seguin (1)

(1) BRGM, Orleans, France

The level of groundwater bodies depends for many of them on the infiltration of meteoric water and will therefore be necessarily impacted by climate change if it causes a change in the infiltration system (intensity, period). To assess and monitor the impact of this change, a dedicated groundwater monitoring network is necessary. As this impact is currently unclear, the implementation of such a network involves an analysis of existing groundwater level data series.

The study was based on Mann-Kendall trend detection tests from groundwater level data and a comparison of trends between groundwater level data and climate data (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration). Trend detection tests were carried out on 377 piezometers of the french national groundwater quantitative monitoring network for which we had a data series of at least 25 years. In the end, 70 have a significant trend, 44 down and 26 up. Piezometers showing significant trend mostly concern aquifers with predominant annual hydrologic cycle. But most of aquifers in France have longer hydrologic cycles and statistical tests are not relevant because the data are autocorrelated and we do not have at our disposal a long time series which are required for such tests. A sketch of spatial structuring trends has been identified, with rising levels for chalq aquifer in the Artois-Picardie basin and the center of the Seine-Normandy Basin and lower levels for chalq and Jurassic limestones aquifers in eastern Seine Normandy basin. Trends upward or downward may in some cases be influenced by groundwater pumping without that one can be demonstrated. The break tests show that the

behavior change corresponds to the years in which water levels are significantly higher or lower than average or to the years that precede or follow these events. Finally, a tool for lumped hydrological modelling (Gardenia) was used to test the sensitivity of the groundwater level variations to potential evapotranspiration (PET). The results show that these variations have a relatively small impact on the groundwater levels, especially compared with model uncertainties.

In conclusion, this study shows that we cannot demonstrate a significant impact of climate change on groundwater levels because of too short time series but it reinforces the need to set up a monitoring network dedicated to the impact of climate change on groundwater. In order to set up that network, about 40 aquifers were selected with following criteria: unconfined aquifer, recharge likely to be impacted by climate change, large piezometric fluctuations, aquifer weakly impacted by withdrawals, aquifer to preserve for the future. To select piezometers for each aquifer, the main criteria was a low anthropogenic impact.

P-2212a-21

The Management of Traditional Hand Dug Wells

ALD. Wamba (1)

(1) Association AFVMC - Aide aux Familles et Victimes des Migrations Clandestines, Administration, Douala, Littoral, Cameroon

The population of Cameroon is about 22 millions of habitants. The country has at least 120 billion m3 of useable groundwater resources unevenly distributed. The proportion of Cameroon's population with access to clean water was estimated at 57.8 per cent in 2005. It was 40 per cent for rural areas. Groundwater Management provides information on the distribution of groundwater resources and the feasibility of the water supply technology through the building of traditional Hand Dug Wells (HDWs). Our objectives are to show how a successful management of HDWs are economically-viable for the water supply and for the sustainable development of communities.

The methodology of fieldwork involves three stages: the decision to establish a new, or renovate and existing Hand Dug Wells (HDWs) in the village, the construction/ installation of the HDWs and its management. The materials required - guided interviews, seminars/workshops with key informers (officers of the administration and NGOs, builders of HDW's technology, representatives of farmers and pastoral associations, professional diggers of HDWs, land committees, farmers, rural councilors and village chiefs).- Group discussions (focus groups to help identify key issues for field work and for the discussion of the preliminary results of research).

The analysis are:

The idea of common ownership of the HDW is a reality for more impactful stakeholders' engagement:

1) In local municipalities:

- the economical development of rural areas;- the availability of potable water for the population;- the reduction of water diseases;- the improvement of the hygiene and sanitation within the population;- the development of agriculture/irrigation/breeding

2) In associations of women interested in the management of HDWs:

- the availability of potable water to reduce the burden of fetching water dedicated to women and children;- the improvement of the hygiene and sanitation in houses;- the development of agriculture/irrigation/breeding;

3) In associations of youth interested in the management of HDWs:

- the learning of the duplication of the construction/ management of Hand Dug Wells for the future and for the sustainable development of the locality;- the availability of job opportunities in the construction/management of Hand Dug Wells

The results are:
-the monitoring and the management of the HDWs by the rural communities;-the training of diggers, builders and users of HDWs;-the sustainability of HDWs;-the availability of water;-the supply of remote/ rural areas with water

## Conclusion

Our conclusion includes the village subsistence -level cropping- with groundwater use for the cultivation of vegetable gardens and seedlings to the improvement of food security at local scale.

## Recommendation

We recommend that the technology of building HDWs have developed further in many countries in Africa to improve the availability of water because significant findings and outcomes of the management of HDWs are in its replication:-by the learning of the construction/management of Hand Dug Wells in primarily/secondary schools/associations of youth/universities;-by organizing workshops to train many trainees/teachers/diggers/builders in the construction/management/technology of Hand Dug Wells(HDWs).

## P-2212a-22

# Glacier retreat from a regional point of view: Characterization of glacier area changes over the Southern Central Andes Region

N. Zazulie (1); E. Briche, (2); M. Rusticucci (3); G. Raga, (4)

(1) University of Buenos Aires, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (2) UMI-IFACEI 3351/CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (3) University of Buenos Aires, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (4) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Centro de ciencias de la atmosfera, Mexico DF, Mexico

In the region known as the southern central Andes of Argentina and Chile (between 30° and 37°S), some of the highest peaks are found. Glaciers are present in the high Andes from which originate several of the main rivers that flow through Chile to the Pacific and through Argentina to the Atlantic. Because of the temperature climate in the foothills on both sides of the Andes, this region is inhibited by the majority of the Chilean population as well as the largest fraction of the population in western Argentina.

It is located in the transition between the region where the maximum precipitation over the Andes is observed and the desert regions of northern Chile. In this transition region, winter precipitation (mainly snow) associated with extratropical systems is sporadic in space and time and the melting of the yearly snowpack is the main source of summer river flow. Under these circumstances, mountain glaciers play an important role in the hydrological system of the region as they serve as a natural reservoir that can buffer the impact of dry seasons on soci economic activities in the region. Under a climate change context, the consequences of this phenomenon over glaciers are well observed at a global scale. Nevertheless a regional study of glacier variations over the Southern Central Andes Region has not yet been carried out.

We have selected images from the Landsat satellite from different years in the period 1989-2014. These images were obtained from the United States Geological Survey website. They have a spatial resolution of 30x30 m and they are ortorectified and georeferenced with the global reference system WGS84 and projected with the projection system UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator). All the images were obtained during the end of the ablation season, from the end of March to the beginning of April, when the seasonal snow has already melted. A false color composition that distinguishes ice surfaces was used. A supervised classification was applied with the purpose of making glacier evolution maps of the entire region. Changes are studied in terms of total glaciated areas and in individual glacier area.

Although some years have shown small advances, a general decrease in the total glaciated area was found. Both the altitudinal and latitudinal dependence was explored. Every latitudinal band has different rates of changes which imply that environmental factors other than latitude may play key role in determining the difference in the observed changes. Furthermore, a number of glaciers were identified and studied as independent units which allows to consider other environmental factors, such as morphological characteristics of the different glaciers. As an example, the glacier Juncal del Sur (33°06'S, 70°07'W) situated in the Aconcaqua river basin near the metropolis area of Santiago de Chile has lost more than 25% of its total area between 1989 and 2014. Another glacier with accumulation zone at similar altitude, the Maipo volcano glacier (34°09'S-69°48'W) has reduced its total area by less than 20% in the same period. Even though the glaciers are situated within the same region, the second glacier belongs to a protected area. These factors are key when analyzing different behaviors within the same region.

# 2212b - Climate change and freshwater - 2: Shaping the Future

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

### K-2212b-01

#### Water security: Global challenges, global responses?

F. Berkhout (1)

(1) King's College London, Geography, London, United Kingdom

Röckstrom et al. (2009) suggest using consumptive water run-off (or blue water use) as a proxy for global freshwater use. Assuming an upper limit of ~12 500-15 000 km³ year⁻¹ of accessible blue water resources, they suggest that consumptive use above a threshold of 4000-6000 km³ year⁻¹ would represent a significant risk to ecosystems, moisture feedbacks and freshwater/ocean mixing. Given that consumptive use is now at about 2600 km³ year⁻¹ the authors conclude that there appears to be some room for manoeuvre, although there continues to be a trend of rapidly growing consumptive water use at the global scale. An Anthropocene or planetary boundaries framing of global sustainable development problems suggests a global governance of planetary boundaries. But there are questions about whether the planetary (or global) scale is really the appropriate scale at which to govern many of critical global resources and environmental services, including water. Water is typically governed at the level of the river basin and ecosystem. Moreover, while for some global environmental problems, like stratospheric ozone depletion, global governance appears

to have been, in large part, successful, there are questions about whether such global coordination can be achieved in other cases. While global governance regimes now exist in many environmental domains, including climate change, achieving an alignment of interests leading to a common understanding of the problem and effective action at the global scale has often proven elusive. Water security emerges at many different and connected scales, from the local to the global. There are important legal, regulatory and voluntary dimensions of global water governance that contribute to water security across these scales. These include norms about rights to water, trade in virtual water, technical and other standards for water use and quality, as well as international transfers of knowledge, technology and finance to support water security. The paper argues that much of the task of governance will need to be focused on fostering transitions in water use, starting at the local level.

### K-2212b-02

#### Shaping the future of freshwater: towards a collective effort to enhance our understanding and capacity to model change

H. Savenije (1); A. Montanari (2); C. Cudenec (3)

(1) IAHS, Delft Technical University, Delft, Netherlands; (2) IAHS, Bologna University, Bologna, Italy; (3) IAHS, Alleni, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France

A large part of the Earth surface may still be in pristine condition, but humans have already had significant impacts on many hydrological processes relevant to society.
Humans have changed the face of the Earth dramatically over time and in doing so introduced substantial changes in the water cycle. Climatic change is one of these impacts, but effects of land use change on: erosion, the character of floods, droughts, and the partitioning and distribution of moisture fluxes are often more strongly noticeable at human scales.

In fact, the limited transferability of water in space and time implies that water withdrawals from natural resources take place where and when water is needed, thereby causing a direct perturbation to all water bodies relevant to society, and therefore to society itself. The current trend of population dynamics and the current status of water systems are such that this impact will not be sustainable in the near future. Therefore mitigation actions are urgently needed, and planning thereof needs to be based on improved interpretations of the impact.

Until recently, hydrologists mainly concentrated on catchments where human perturbation was limited, so as to improve the understanding of pristine hydrology. Nowadays, the urgency to mitigate the global water crisis through improved water management calls for research that attempts to bridge water and social sciences. To reach this target, new science is needed aimed at improved interpretation and modeling of the integrated human and water system. The question is how to build operational models that fully account for the interactions and feedbacks between water resources systems and society. This scientific challenge and the ambition to improve freshwater management in a changing environment together form the pillars of the science initiative «Panta Rhei», promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. Panta Rhei focuses on three targets, namely: to understand, to enhance predictive capabilities; and to support societal planning. Two years since its inception, Panta Rhei already counts 30 working groups, involving about 300 scientists, who are developing innovative theories and modeling approaches to address the above challenges. In doing so, Panta Rhei is catalyzing a global and collective effort to assist societies to mitigate the global water crisis.

## K-2221b-03

### Prospective approach for assessing change in water resources management for large river basins in France

E. Sauquet (1) ; Y. Arama (2) ; E. Blanc-Coutagne (3) ; H. Bouscasse (2) ; F. Branger (1) ; JF. Brun (3) ; Ducharme (4) ; R. Dufour (5) ; B. Dufour (6) ; F. Krowicki (7) ; M. Le Lay (8) ; F. Malerbe (3) ; C. Monteil (5) ; C. Perrin (9) ; R. Samie (5) ; A. Rossi (7) ; P. Strossier (7) ; G. Thirel (9) (9) ; JP. Vidal (1)

(1) IRSTE, Lyon, France ; (2) Acteen, Grenoble, France ; (3)

CR, Aix en Provence, France ; (4) UPMC, Paris, France ; (5)

EDF, Chatou, France ; (6) LTHE, Grenoble, France ; (7) Acteen,

Colmar, France ; (8) EDF, Grenoble, France ; (9) IRSTEa, Antony, France

Water management planning is influenced by many natural and human factors that interact at basin scale. A multidisciplinary approach is therefore required to both understand and well represent the main characteristics of the water system before analysing its sustainability under global change and suggesting efficient adaptation measures. The complexity of the interactions and thus the challenge in modelling increase with the size of the river basin. This tall presents the main results of the research project R2D2-2050 «Risk, water resources and sustainable Development within the Durance river basin in 2050» (Sauquet et al., 2014). The Durance river, one of the major rivers located in the Southern part of the French Alps, supplies water for competing human uses (irrigation, hydropower, drinking water, industries and more recently tourism and ecological services) within and out of the drainage area through an extended open channel network. The project R2D2-2050 aimed to assess whether the current water management - especially operating rules for the three main reservoirs - would need changing under future conditions taking into account evolutions in both climate and socio-economy. A multi-model approach was carried out to simulate regional climate, water resources, irrigation needs, water supply for domestic purposes, water transfers and reservoir operations. A model of water management similar to the operational tool used by the French hydropower producer EDF was also developed to simulate water released from the reservoirs on present-day

conditions under constraints imposed by ecological flows and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance river basin.

**Results suggest:**

* an increase in pressure on diminished water resources,

* a decrease in energy produced by the main dams mainly due to reduced annual inflows,

* a decrease in biological richness for intermittent rivers,

* a full compliance with water needs for priority uses downstream from the reservoir but less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand if current water management rules are unchanged,

* more frequent restrictions on water abstraction reducing the demand to be met for sub-basins with no reservoir,

* socio economic scenarios as the most important source of uncertainty influencing the sustainability of the present-day allocation rules.

Those conclusions will be compared with previous findings from similar impact studies on other large French river basins (Seine (Habets et al., 2013); Garonne (Hendrickx and Sauquet, 2013)).

Habets F., Boé J., Déqué M., Ducharme A., Gasco S., Hachour A., Martin J., Pagé C., Sauquet E., Terray L., Thiéry D., Oudin L. & Viennot P. (2013). Impact of climate change on surface water and groundwater of two basins in Northern France: analysis of the uncertainties associated with climate and hydrological models, emission scenarios and downscaling methods. Climatic Change, vol. 21, n° 4, p. 771-785

Hendrickx, F. and Sauquet, E., 2013. Impact of warming climate on water management for the Ariège River basin (France). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(4), 1-17.

Sauquet, E. et al., 2014. Projet R5D² 2050, Risque, Ressource en eau et gestion Durable de la Durance en 2050. Rapport de fin de contrat, Programme GICC, Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement durable et de l'Energie, Novembre 2014, 243 p.

## O-2221b-01

### A citizen science approach to managing freshwater resources in the tropical Andes

W. Buytaert (1) ; B. Ochoa-Tocachi (2) ; Z. Zulkafli (1) ; B. De Bievre (3) ; M. Saravia Lopez De Castilla (3)

(1) Imperial College London, Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, United Kingdom; (2) CONDESAN, Quito, Ecuador; (3) CONDESAN, Lima, Peru

The tropical Andes are a hotspot of environmental change. The combination of global climate change, local land-use change, demographic growth, and increasing water demand is putting extreme pressures on water resources. This is of particular concern to rural upland communities. They are facing a double challenge of maintaining their own livelihoods with dwindling natural resources, and at the same time supporting downstream ecosystem services such as a well buffered stream flow and good water quality.

This challenge is complicated further by the acute lack of data on the hydrological functioning of Andean catchments. The factors that control their hydrological response are extremely variable in space and time, including meteorological forcing, land cover types, soil properties and geology. This makes it very difficult to predict accurately the impact of human activities such as land use, and watershed investments. Such predictions are essential for policy-making and sustainable ecosystem management.

In order to tackle the issue of hydrological data scarcity in the tropical Andes, we set up a citizen science initiative, implementing a network of hydrological monitoring of upland catchments in a pairwise fashion. Using a trading-space-for-time approach, the initiative aims to use these data to improve predictions about the impact of land-use changes and other ecosystem management practices on the hydrological response. Currently, over 25 catchments
are being monitored for precipitation and stream flow in 9 sites located in Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia. The sites are supported by local stakeholders and communities in a participatory approach that otherwise would be impractical or prohibitively expensive.

Because of the technical challenges of monitoring hydrological variables in remote mountain areas, we set up a web-based infrastructure to support local technicians and stakeholders. Additionally, using open data standards such as those of the Open Geospatial Consortium, the data can be pooled efficiently for regional-scale analysis, as well as processed and visualized efficiently. Lastly, the datasets can be coupled to web-based hydrological models using rich and interactive interfaces. Such setups, we refer to as "environmental virtual observatories", can support water and land users at different scales of space and time. From a single level to national government entities, and at different levels of technical and scientific skills.

In our presentation, we will report on the effort of setting up a citizen science approach to monitoring freshwater resources in the tropical Andes, and how this can be used to support local management efforts. We will discuss our successes, as well as land influences challenges in the technological, hydrological, and social science domains.

## O-2212b-02

### Science-policy interface to foster scientific development and uptake by policy makers for the purpose of water management in the context of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies development

F. Martini (1)

(1) Onema, Vincennes, France

Water resources challenges exacerbated by global change including climate variability can affect water security and human well-being. To globally face this situation, there is a need to develop evidence-based policy incorporating accurate information related to predicted global changes.

But water and climate change research outputs are insufficiently reaching water managers today. And there's a lack of places where water managers can express the scientific information they need to develop their adaptation strategies.

A science-policy interface (SPI) answers this challenge by enhancing science-based policy development and fostering dialogue between researchers and water managers. It first facilitates the expression of policy requirements of scientific knowledge for specific management decisions, and a common understanding of these needs. It identifies existing scientific knowledge fulfilling policy needs and influences development of research agendas to match future policy needs. It finally allows a mutual understanding and long-lasting dialogue between scientists and policy makers.

Three science-policy interface experiences studied at international, European and national levels led to identify some recommendations to set a sustainable science-policy interface helping to face the challenges of water and climate change.

The 6th World water forum recommended initiating an international networking platform for researchers and water managers in order to facilitate communications in relation to the IPCC and other UN conventions. The objective of such a water SPI is to provide relevant scientific inputs to help governments and water managers develop effective decisions and climate change adaptation strategies, considering the uncertainty related to the impact of climate change on water resources. A mapping of existing SPI mechanisms over the world initiated this investigation.

From 2010 to 2012 a science-policy interface for the water framework directive (WFD) has been operated by the European commission and France. This SPI intended to support WFD implementation by helping provide and if needed produce adequate scientific information.

With a view to improving the uptake of science by policy makers involved in water management decisions in the context of climate change, and conversely the

comprehension by scientists of the needs of policy makers, Onema organized on 3 February 2015 a seminar between scientists and policy makers. This event allowed them to share their knowledge and views on scientific needs, and raise recommendations on science-policy dialogue enhancement.

Those three experiences led to consolidate some main principles to fit and maintain a science-policy interface which allows a better evidence-based water policy development under climate change.

Establish a sustainable Community of practices (CoP). The CoP is a consistent group of stakeholders of the water sector: scientists, water managers, knowledge brokers, politicians, journalists, civil society, ensuring a multidisciplinary approach. It should engage stakeholders from all the scales of the water management (and around the world). It ensures the operating of the SPI.

Appoint Knowledge Brokers and form them. They are skilled experts dedicated, trained, and resourced to engage in the SPI. They assist policy makers in formulating scientific and technical questions, enhance the scientific knowledge transfer to the policy makers and contribute to keep research aligned with policy needs.

Improve Communication and Tools. Communication may be encouraged and improved at all levels through the creation of a platform in which the CoP can share information and network. Recent research findings and request for collaborators with particular expertise for future research projects can be shared there. Policy makers can there access scientific information digested into policy briefs and other publications, seek experts' scientific opinion, and communicate their research needs to scientists.

## O-2212b-03

### "Water crisis and tensions in Europe and in the Mediterranean by 2050: future scenarios?"

MA. Martin (1) ; S. Fernandez (2) ; M. Lang (3) ; J. Verdier (4) ; PL Viollet (5)

(1) Académie d'eau, Water management, Paris; France; (2) IRSTEA, Umr geste, Strasbourg, France; (3) IRSTEA - Lyon, Research unit on hydraulics and hydrology, Lyon, France; (4) AFEID, Montpellier, France; (5) SHF, Paris, France

All around the world, water resources management is facing numerous challenges. The predicted effects of greenhouse gas emissions are of particular concern with regard to future droughts, which frequency and intensity are expected to increase. Despite the many uncertainties reflected in various future studies conducted in France, a general trend of decline emerges in the long term (2050-2070) with a 10 to 40 % decrease of the annual average river flows. Due to the decrease in snowy surfaces, rivers could also evolve from a nival (snowmelt dominated) regime to a pluvial (rainfall) regime, with lower flows during the summer - when crop evapotranspiration is at its maximum. Studies carried out on aquifers, suggest, under a business-as-usual scenario, an acceleration and intensification of the level of exploitation or of the degradation of the quality of many of them. Challenges and risks are particularly high in the Mediterranean countries, with a tendency towards an increased concentration of their population along coasts or within deltas, having direct and significant implications for drinking water supply and sanitation.

Foresight studies on water - related issues. The issue of scale is usually not discussed as such when conducting foresight studies. The watershed is certainly a relevant unit for surface hydrology. It does not, however, necessarily allow grasping groundwater, nor the territorial basis upon which public action is deployed. Greater emphasis should also be given to other scales such as water supply and water demands. On one hand, quantification is important in order to ensure the consistency of a given scenario, but it must be done a posteriori and not a priori. On the other hand, possible disruptions are difficult to model. Their probability of occurrence can certainly be quite well modeled, as long as a wide range of temporal uncertainty is acknowledged. What happens after any type of disruption is, instead, often qualitatively and quantitatively unpredictable.

Issues related to the status of global change. Climate
change is usually represented as a "driving force" of the system at stake, that legitimizes foreseen debates, since it should lead to a decrease of water resources (on an annual or seasonal average), that could be very intense locally, and to a greater variability of the resource in space and time. While the water and climate nexus was brought to the international political agenda, the concept of adaptation also emerged, a concept to be differentiated from mitigation. Water issues are also to be framed in terms of adaptation, while having in mind that mitigation measures can significantly reduce adaptation costs.

Future issues. In Europe and in the Mediterranean basin, major issues are related to future tensions over water resources management and to likely induced disruptions. Possible answers to this should take into account the relations between climate change and the evolution of water uses, at an adequate time horizon (2050): it should also integrate hydrological and climate studies as well as social sciences approaches or results. Such is the aim of the international conference «Water Tensions in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin: water crisis by 2050?» organized by SHF, AFEID, the Water Academy and UISF, to be held at Paris (7–9 October 2015). Three cardinal themes have been identified: 1/Analysis of past and present «crises» and tensions on water resources. How, by whom and when, these past events have been classified as «crises» or «tensions»...? How were they governed, evaluated, explained? How may these analyses help in managing the future? 2/Forecast of the evolution of surface water and groundwater regime by 2050, and consequences associated in terms of water scarcity and water quality deterioration. The issue of uncertainty linked to the identified spatial scales shall be studied as well. 3/Methodological issues for prospective studies. How to build relevant analysis scales in prospective studies, how to relate them to water flows and territories? How to recognize and clarify uncertainties related to prospective studies and how to make more explicit the social and political dimensions that are inherent to prospective analysis? How to tackle water crises and their consequences? What kind of ruptures are to be considered? What can be expected from «new» technologies?

O-2212b-04

## The importance of protecting and restore
freshwater ecosystems for sustainable
development and building resilience to
climate change

S. Widforss (1); K. Lexen (2)

(1) Stockholm International Water Institute, International Processes, Stockholm, Sweden; (2) Stockholm International Water Institute, World water week & international processes, Stockholm, Sweden

According to OECD (2012), the global demand for freshwater is projected to increase by 55 % between 2000 and 2050. Freshwater ecosystems such as wetlands, lakes and peatlands are the most essential of ecosystem services providing for food security, income, health and resilience to climate change induced impacts. Safely managed water resources are necessary for human wellbeing, for protecting communities from climate induced vulnerability and risk. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) Stress on already exposed water resources has implications on local communities relying on the sources for their human security and livelihood; it will impair the ability to overcome inequalities, and enhance economic development (UN Water 2014). Women are at a higher risk of being negatively affected by hydro-climatic disasters, and to the exposure of water- and sanitation related diseases. Freshwater interlinkages sustainable development strategies are effective climate adaptation capacities and protects livelihoods. Freshwater ecosystems harness the potential for reduced climate vulnerability, while being vital for resilient, prosperous communities, and this should be acknowledged in global policies. Further, bridging the gap between policy and practice; facilitating the integration and application of local expertise from indigenous communities, is necessary in order to build relevant capacity.

## Climatic Change in the Amazon Estuary:
perception of changes and impact on pro-
duction by traditional population

O. Almeida (1); S. Rivero, (2); N. Vogt, (3); CM. Alvez-Valle, (4); Y. Dou, (5); S. Thomas (1); N. Moreira, (6); A. Saldanha, (7); V. Zeidemann (8)

(1) UFPA, NAEIA, Belem PA, Brazil; (2) UFPA, Economics, Belem PA, Brazil; (3) INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (4) UJFF, Ecology, Juiz de Fora, Brazil; (5) Waterloo University, Geography, Waterloo, Canada; (6) IFPA, Aqualtic, Belem PA, Brazil; (7) Emater, Pesca, Belem PA, Brazil; (8) Federal University of Pará, Economic Graduation Program, Belém, Pará, Brazil

The studies on climate change in Amazonia have focused on the impact of changes on the regional climate (Coe et al 2002, Costa et al., 2013, Costa et al., 2007, Sampaio et al., 2007, Oliveira et al 2013) or on the relationship of climate change and reduction of biomass (Phillips et al. 2013) and more recently on the interactions between human activities (such as deforestation, climate change and the water system (Melack et al. 2013). This paper aims to analyze the perception of traditional estuarine population in relation to climatic events in the Amazon and assess the potential for adaptation to climate change in this population.A semi-structured questionnaire was applied with 239 families in two communities in the municipality of the state of Pará Abaetetuba. Perceptions of climate impacts vary according to the activity and the type of weather event to be evaluated. In general the product dries on the tree or fall and, according to the interviewees, can reduce yields by up to 46%. Regarding the fishing activity the answers were not as uniform as for theca. In general, 54–58% report that high temperature affects the shrimp and fish (respectively) reducing their catch. The shrimp seem to be more susceptible to temperature and most of the informants said that the reduction occurs in the range 10–20% of production. The perception that temperature affects fishing fish is low (23% of total). The impact of rain, however, was remarkable for fishing. Most of the respondents say that increased rainfall and reduces fish and shrimp production (78% and 81%, respectively). In this case, around 50% said that production is reduced between 10–20% while 20% say that the reduction is around 50%. The tide seems to have huge impact on fisheries. In this case, the respondents said that when the tides were higher there was a large reduction in fish and shrimp production (92 and 95%, respectively). Surprisingly while 65% of respondents said that there was no way to reduce the impact of high temperatures on shrimp farming and fishing, the rest (45%), for the most part, believed that reducing deforestation would be a way to alleviate the impact. The population of the estuary is subject to a continuous process of adaptation. The cycle of the sugar cane mills encouraged the planting of sugar cane (from 1920 to 1987, Anderson 1991) resulting in deforestation of lowland forest. In 1987 in end of the cycle, the population began the cycle of palm hearts, cutting down much of the native palm heart trees and finally with the rising price of acai fruit they began a process or maintenance of forest with enrichment of acai forests or replanting acai trees in areas previously cleared. In 1984 with the construction of Tucurui hydroelectric dam, there were huge drop in fish catch (Juras et al., 2007) downstream of the dam to which the population also had to adapt. These experiences resulted in a higher capacity of adaptation by local population. However, with the major limitations of the fishery activities in the várzea and the high dependence on fishing and acai this population need to be aware of the impacts.

P-2212b-02

## WEBRESNAT: A Geoenvironmental Tool of
GHG Emissions on Natural and Anthro-
pogenic Aquatic Environments

R. Barreto (1); E. Santos (1); F. Justino, (1); V. Pereira, (1); M. Freitas, (1); L. Pinguelli, (1)

(1) International Virtual Institute of Global Change – IVIG,
Centro de Tecnologia, UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

Concentration of natural greenhouse gases (GHG) in the
atmosphere have increased because of anthropogenic activities, but information on their emissions are still scattered in the scientific community. Hydroelectric dams have become the subject of speculation that their reservoirs are contributing to the intensification of the GHG effect. In 2006, IPCC decided to discuss a specific section to the issue of artificial wetlands where hydroelectric reservoirs are totally relevant. Research conducted primarily by COPPE / UFRJ in Brazil have shown that these systems have emissions, particularly of CO2 and CH4. However, studies show that depending on the construction, operation, climate, soil and wetland biome type, hydropower reservoirs emit less or similar to various natural environments (wetlands, peat, rivers and estuaries). Thus, owning a GHG emissions database hydroelectric reservoirs and natural aquatic environment (wetlands, rivers, lakes, estuaries, etc.) are essential so that you can have a review of this issue and to make comparative studies. However, by 2012 it had no information about the existence of a database with this focus. As a result, the IVIG/COPPE from Brazil created WebRESNAT (http://webresnat.ivig.coppe.br/), in order to make available to researchers information about greenhouse gas emissions (CH4 and CO2) in hydroelectric reservoirs and natural aquatic environments worldwide. The study consisted of developing a database system based on GIS (Geographic Information Systems), whose objectives was to collect, develop and disseminate information about the climate change and various geo-geoenvironmental parameters in hydroelectric reservoirs and natural environments through an online portal. The next steps will be oriented to the expansion, refinement and further details of the portal, using interactive maps that allow the user to view different aspects of specific areas and phenomena in question, as well as the lines of your interest, the different scales and varying degrees of detail. After its development will become a very useful tool for the research community. Without you can promote interactions, intercomparisons, collaborations and joint analyses.

P-2212b-03

Integrated Modeling in support of Trans-boundary Water Cooperation in Central Asia: Ill-Balkhash watershed

A. Baubekova (1)

(1) Industrial Trading Group, Ecology, Astana, Kazakhstan

There is a concern that the Lake Balkhash can repeat the fate of the Aral Sea. Balkhash is the second largest lake in Central Asia and it has environmental, social and economic value for Kazakhstan. The loss of the Lake will lead to the deterioration of the climate change consequences in the region. An increase of the average air temperature by 1.3°C during the century that country is already facing is two times higher than the global warming value. This results in massive desertification and soil degradation, which will negatively impact on economy and living conditions in the region.

In order to verify this assertion an integrated model of the transboundary Ill-Balkhash watershed was done. Climate change and socio-economic changes were assessed for the level of influence on the lake system. Climate Change analysis was processed in Astana with the support of Laboratory of Energy, Ecology and Climate of Nazarbayev University Research and Innovation System. A Bayesian statistical model was used in order to make probabilistic forecast of climate change in the regional scale (Tebaldi et al. 2005). The analysis of socio-economic changes was based on the use of GIS techniques and remote sensing as well as literature review. Nine main scenarios were developed including climatic, economic and combined sets. An initial scenario showed that the Lake Balkhash is actually drying and current system is unstable. The best or 4.5 scenario that provided favorable conditions for the water regime has showed the only positive result and increase of water level. But this scenario is not realistic as finding of this study indicated the rapid economic growth in the near future due to population increase. Therefore combined p4.5 scenario was found more feasible. Under this scenario lake volume gradually fell but did not exceed the minimum level. The worst scenario (r8.5) showed the complete loss of the lake in fifteen years. Despite the fact that this last scenario is based on the maximum values and implies dramatic changes in the climate conditions and economic activities it is still possible to happen. Therefore countries were recommended not only to examine current watershed management strategy and come to consensus

on the ill river water use limits but also to reconsider energy strategy and consumer behavior of the local population.

P-2212b-04

Comparison of climate change impacts on the recharge of two karst systems computing different modelling approaches

Y. Caballero (1); B. Ladouche, (1); S. Lanini, (1); JJ Seguin (2); JB. Charlier (1); L. Cadihac, (3); JC. Marechal (1); C. Page (4)

(1) BRGM, Water division, Montpellier, France; (2) BRGM, Orleans, France; (3) Rhone-Mediterranean & Corsica Water Agency, Groundwater division, Lyon, France; (4) CERFACS, Toulouse, France

Karst systems constitute aquifers in which infiltration and groundwater flows are generally complex processes and are characterized by limited knowledge in terms of geometry and structure. Nonetheless, they often represent interesting groundwater resources, some of them being subjected to intensive exploitation and others non exploited due to their poor understanding. In the future, it is likely that climate change impact on water resources will increase the interest for such a kind of aquifers due to their strong infiltration and storage capacity, in a broad context of higher water scarcity.

The Lez and the Lison karst systems in Southern and Eastern France, respectively, provide 2 examples of such systems of several km² under two contrasted climate conditions, the first one being heavily exploited. This study presents a comparative climate change assessment on both karst systems. Nine climate scenarios corresponding to the Fez and Tiziou catchment of the IPCC (SRES A1B scenario), downscaled using weather-type methods by the CERFACS, have been applied to various recharge modelling approaches, as standard analytical solutions of recharge estimation and soil-water balance models. Results are compared and discussed in order to assess the influence on climate change impacts of i) the climate conditions (geographic location), ii) the groundwater exploitation and iii) the modelling approach.

P-2212b-05

Balancing water uses and availability under human- and climate-induced changes at the 2050 horizon

J. Fabre (1); D. Ruelland (1); A. Dezetter, (2); B. Grouillet,

(1) CNRS, HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (2) IRD, Hydrosciences montpellier, Montpellier, France

Over the past decades, human and climatic pressures on water resources have been increasing in the Mediterranean region, and the area could experience higher water stress over the 21st century. This study aims to assess water stress by 2050 in Mediterranean river basins facing increasing human and climatic pressures, and to compare the impacts of a wide range of possible future socioeconomic and climate trends.

A modeling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand at a 10-day time step was developed and applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2 500 km², France) and the Ebro (85 000 km², Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was used as a reference of the IPCC (SRES A1B scenario) and the demand for streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited, indicators comparing water supply to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over the last 40 years before being applied under four combinations of water use and climatic scenarios to differentiate the impacts of human- and climate-induced changes on streamflow and water
balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon (from nine climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways). Two water use scenarios were considered: water uses of the 2000s and a trend water use scenario at the 2050 horizon, based on demographic and local socio-economic trends. The sensitivity of water stress to variations in the main drivers of water demand and availability under the trend water use and climate change scenarios was tested to assess the efficiency of potential adaptation measures.

Temperature projections show a clear increasing trend, particularly marked in the summer. Projections for precipitation are more uncertain and differ among the 18 scenarios considered. However, a decrease in spring and summer precipitation is expected in both basins. These climatic trends should result in changes in natural discharge, while scenarios diverge in fall, winter and spring, all 18 scenarios result in a decrease in summer low flows. Simulations revealed a significant increase in total water demand under anthropogenic and climate trends in 2050 in both basins. Results also show that projected water uses are not sustainable under climate change scenarios. While anthropogenic drivers could influence variations in water demand more than climate change in the Herault basin the impact of climate change could be more determining than water use changes for the balance between water uses and availability. In some areas of the Ebro basin water use changes could have a larger impact than climate change on water stress. The combination of the trend water use scenario and climate change scenarios could also have a high impact on the respect of minimum environmental flows in both basins. Finally, water stress showed little sensitivity to individual variations in the drivers of water demand.

This study points out the areas most vulnerable to human- and/or climate-induced changes by 2050 in two Mediterranean basins. In both basins a combination of adaptation measures leading to a large decrease in water demand and an optimized management of water availability will be necessary in order to supply enough water to satisfy demand while limiting anthropogenic pressure on water resources to sustainable levels.

P-2212b-06

Revising the planetary boundary for freshwater use

D. Gerten (1); J. Heinke (1); A. Pastor (2); J. Jägermeyr (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

The nine planetary boundaries represent thresholds for key earth system processes which, if crossed due to collective anthropogenic activities may move the earth out of the Holocene status with potentially desasexual consequences for human societies. While the concept and quantitative basis of planetary boundaries has recently undergone a comprehensive update (Steffen et al., Science, 2015), some boundaries still require a more robust quantification, especially in terms of the upscaling of regional patterns to the planetary scale.

This presentation shows a way to improve the assessment of the planetary boundary for human freshwater use, and the proximity to this boundary given current and potential future water demand and use. Our core concept is to account for the environmental flow requirements of riverine ecosystems as local limitations to human water use, which serve as a basis for a geographically explicit 'bottom-up' estimation of the planetary boundary. Our pilot assessment indicates that respecting the environmental boundary value requires a planetary boundary value that is potentially lower than suggested earlier. Different estimation methods to assess environmental flows suggest a boundary between 1,100 and 4,500 km3 consumptive water use per year (original estimate from Rockstrom et al., Nature 2009: 4,000 km3 per year). Thus, humanity's current consumptive water use (~1,600 km3/year, ~90% of which are for irrigation), let alone water withdrawal (~3,600 km3/year), already exceeds the lower end of this range that reflects strict rules on environmental flows. Moreover, local tolerance limits (specified in terms of the ecological flow requirements) are already exceeded in many places, such as in parts of southern Europe, southern Asia, the Near and Middle East, and in the western USA. Our assessment is based primarily on high-resolution

simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model, LPJmL.

Building upon these results, the presentation also elaborates on how the definition and quantification of the freshwater boundary can be improved further, for example by including "green" water contributions, process linkages with the planetary boundary for land-system change, and also water ethical considerations.

P-2212b-07

"Garonne 2050": an innovative participatory prospective study on the base of a strategy of adaptation to global changes for the Garonne river basin

F. Goulard (1)

(1) Agence de l'eau Adour-Garonne, Toulouse, France

With its "Garonne 2050" study, the Adour-Garonne Water Agency, which covers the south-west of France, carried out a forward-looking analysis of needs and resources, primarily taking into account the impact of climatic change. Although there remain considerable uncertainties about precipitation, by 2050, rising temperatures will result in a substantial increase in evapotranspiration in this region, what means less available water.

The study took place over a period of three years (2010 to 2013) combining a forward-looking methodology with the participation of the stakeholders (mainly water users) and simulations used to calculate the approximate amounts of water to be mobilised and costs involved for the agency managing the river basin.

The principal challenge for 2050 is that natural flow will be halved during the water period which itself will be earlier and longer (May to November). At the heart of possible scenarios for adapting to such changes, the key factor is the societal choice that will be made in response to the two-pronged question: what flow of water do we want in our rivers in the summer? And what are we able to do about it? Thus, the result of the simulation indicated that if we wanted, by 2050, to compensate for this natural hydrological reduction to maintain today's Target Low Water Flows (DOE) and preserve uses, biodiversity, aquatic recreational activities and landscapes during the summer period, then the total deficit, to be made good over the year, is around 760 Mm3/year (or to be more precise, a value between 480 and 1,200 Mm³ given uncertainties). As a comparison, summer surface water use for irrigated agriculture in this basin currently amounts to around 400 Mm3 and water stored in hydroelectric reserves in this same area amounts to 1,200 Mm3.

Models of five initial exploratory scenarios were created and submitted for consultation. In this way, it was possible to reduce the scope of the strategic debate to three main water management scenarios.

One of the important conclusions of this study is that in a region that is both highly agricultural and attractive from a demographic point of view, it will be extremely difficult to secure uses and maintain a low-water flow as it is today with the natural hydrological context of the future.

However, without impacting the management of energy or completely sacrificing an activity like irrigated agriculture, it is almost impossible to maintain an acceptable low-water flow, without relying on additional storage. Other problems connected with the quantitative management of the water resource have not been sufficiently detailed in this study, which may lead to an under-estimation of the tensions at stake and the problems to come. These include pollution, of course, but also soil erosion and effects on biodiversity, river morphology and so on; all essential factors impacted and impacting the volumes of water available for various uses. Finally, since the study did not specifically look into questions of governance, its main aim is to highlight the scope of the debate, which can no longer be avoided in the Adour-Garonne basin. In addition to the efforts that are now necessary for each sector of activity, the study picks up on an important question: the way we arbitrate and reconcile between different uses and, therefore, the question of access, which will be increasingly strategic, to the water resource, an essential asset of a region of over 65,000 km2 which will accommodate over 5 million inhabitants in 2050.
That is why the Adour-Garonne water agency organizes
in continuation of this study, a regional conference
with controversies, beyond the river basin committee,
by integrating questions of choices of lifestyle of the citizens...
...in France.

P-2212b-08

## Combined effect of climate change and groundwater abstraction on multi-layer and alluvial aquifers in France

F. Habets (1) ; P. Viennot (2) ; C. Thierion (3) ; JP. Vergnes (4) ; A. Ait-Kaci (5) ; Y. Caballero (6) ; P. Ackerer (7) ; N. Amraoui (8) ; B. Auge (9) ; F. Besson (10) ; JR. De Dreuzy (11) ; L. Longuevergne (12) ; E. Martin (13) ; T. Morel (14) ; F. Regimbeau (10) ; D. Thieri (15) ; J.M. Soubeyroux (16)

(1) CNRS, UMR 7619 Metis, université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; (2) Mines-Paristech, Geosciences, Fontainebleau, France; (3) ANTEA group, Hydrogeology, Orléans, France; (4) UPMC, UMR metis 7619, Paris, France; (5) BIPE, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France; (6) BRGM, Eau, Montpellier, France; (7) CNRS - University of Strasbourg, Lhyges, Strasbourg, France; (8) BRGM, Water Environment & Ecosystems, Orleans, France; (9) ONEMA, Paris, France; (10) Météo-France, Dclim, Toulouse, France; (11) Géosciences Rennes, CNrs, Rennes, France; (12) CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences rennes, Rennes, France; (13) Météo France, Cnrn-game, Toulouse, France; (14) CERFACS, Toulouse, France; (15) BRGM, Eau, Orléans, France; (16) météo-France, Dclim, Toulouse, France

Although nowadays groundwater resources are mostly affected by increasing water abstraction, they will have to face the impact of climate change. Even in a temperate climate as the one in northern France these two drivers will have strong impact on the aquifers. Evolution of groundwater resource is most often studied based on evolution of the rainfall infiltration that is assumed to be the aquifer recharge, although river-aquifer and multi-layer aquifer exchanges are also part of the recharge and can only be estimated using a hydrogeological model. Moreover, providing a change of the piezometric level is usually not found to be meaningful by stakeholder as a 1 meter variation can have different impact depending on the hydrogeological context. Therefore, in this study, to provide greater insight into the impact of groundwater, two new indicators are used: the evolution of the extension of groundwater-fed wetlands and the frequency with which a crisis piezometric head is exceeded. The crisis piezometric levels are used locally by stakeholders and as soon as the observed piezometric heads fall below these levels, actions are taken to preserve the water resource.

For the present study, the local crisis piezometric heads were extended to the whole studied basins, the Seine and Upper Rhine Graben basins.

The results show that the two basins under study are not affected in the same way by climate and groundwater abstraction changes. The Seine multi-layer aquifers are projected to suffer from

a substantial decrease in rainfall infiltration (about 20%), while the decrease is lower in the Upper Rhine Graben aquifer (about 6%).

In 2050, the extension of groundwater-fed wetlands is expected to lose about 900m2/km2, while the crisis piezometric heads are expected to be exceeded about 40% and 26% of the time on average on the Seine and Upper Rhine Graben aquifers, respectively. The reduction of the groundwater abstraction has a large impact locally but is not efficient enough to overcome the impact of climate change, although the impact is more sensitive on the Upper Rhine Graben than on the Seine,

and particularly on the extension of wetlands and low flow. Sensitivity to the parameters that drive the river-aquifer exchange was found to be second order compared to the uncertainty due to the

climate model in the Upper Rhine Graben, although these parameters have a considerable impact on present-day estimation of the indicator balance. The two indicators are found to be highly useful to discuss the impact of climate change on groundwater with stakeholders.

In order to be able to extend such studies to the whole aquifers of France, and to have a survey of such impact as soon as new downscaled projections are available, the AquiFR project is bringing together hydrogeological applications used by stakeholder in a common plateform that will be based at Météo-France.

P-2212b-09

## Monitoring and Evaluation of water of Quality of Taal lake, Philippines

F. Martinez (1) ; I. Galera (2)

(1) De La Salle University dasmarinas, Physical Sciences Department, College of Science and Computer Studies, Dasmarinas City, Philippines; (2) De La Salle University dasmarinas, Psd, dasmarinas Philippines

The study is an update on the physico-chemical properties of Taal Lake for local and government officials and non-government organizations to determine if there is a change in the quality of water in relation to climate change and environmental effects. A total of nine (9) water quality parameters were monitored and analyzed. The study shows that Taal Lake's surface temperature, pH, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, color, and dissolved oxygen content conform to the standards set by the DENR while phosphate, chlorine, and 5-Day 20°C BOD are below the standard. T-test result shows that there is no significant difference in the overall average of the two sites at Taal Lake ($P > 0.05$). Based on the data, the lake is safe for primary contact recreation such as bathing, swimming, and skin diving and can be used for aqua culture purposes.

P-2212b-10

## Integrated Climate and Land Use Change on Downstream Ecosystem Service in the Ta Chin River Basin, Thailand

S. Monprapussorn (1)

(1) Srinakharinwirot University, Geography, Bangkok, Thailand

Ecosystem provides goods and services that sustain all life on planet earth. The services provided by ecosystem and their components are highly crucial for human well-beings such as provisioning of food, water and habitat, regulating carbon sequestration and providing recreational resources. Economies and livelihoods in developing countries heavily depend on ecosystem service. Climate change is expected to be a major cause for changing in ecosystem services in variety of ways. Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) involves several processes that are central to the estimation of climate change and its impact on ecosystem. It is, therefore, very important that integrated climate and LULCC change framework scenarios will enhance the current and future knowledge of ecosystem services. The area of study is located in downstream portions of the Ta Chin river basin where the river Ta Chin passes through the heart of province and flows into Gulf of Thailand. It consists of many tributaries networks which connecting the ecosystem of lands and seas make it as a suitable place for fishery and aquaculture.

This paper aims at exploring potential impact of climate and LULCC change on ecosystem services in downstream areas of the river basin. Three Land-use change scenarios were developed; business as usual scenarios (BAU), high economic growth (HEG) and green growth (GG) scenarios and integrated to different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0). For a case study, downstream ecosystem service in changing climate and LULCC will be quantified baseline and projected change in provisioning of habitat and water supply. The interaction of socioeconomic development and changing climate on runoff, streamflow and precipitation will be studied. The scenarios shows that habitat loss is expected to occur in a basin in according to urban/ resident sprawl (HEG scenario). Projection also reveals the increase in extreme precipitation in rainy season that might dominate runoff or recharge. Altered service of ecosystem leads to substantial effect on local livelihood. The results found that integrate climate smart land-use planning needs to be taken into consideration. It will reduce vulnerability and increase more efficient in water resource planning and resilience of local communities.
# Salinity intrusion in the Mekong delta of Vietnam: Challenges and Solutions

H. Nguyen (1) ; S. Tyler, (1)

(1) Institute for Social and Environmental Transition – Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam

Mekong delta is located in the South of Vietnam, where salinity intrusion has been observed for many decades (Nguyen et al, 1999). As with many deltas, the Mekong delta is affected by both river floods and tidal inflows. Before 1980, salinity impacted 1.7–2.1 million ha of a total 3.5 million ha of agricultural areas of the Mekong delta every year during the dry season. In the 1980s and 1990s, a number of salinity control projects were implemented, including the construction of closure dams and sluice gates in the navigation canals connecting the branches of the delta. However, fresh water intakes along key estuary branches are affected each year by high salinity (Nguyen, 1999; Le A. T., 2006; Chu, T. H., 2012). As a result, these intakes have to be closed for anywhere from a few weeks to two months each year to prevent salt intrusion. (Nguyen and Savenije, 2006; Chu, T. H., 2012).

In recent years, stronger ocean tides and saline intrusion as a result of sea level rise are changing Mekong river flow in the dry season. Saline intrusion has started to influence river water near Can Tho city which is 65km far from the costal line and it impact to almost of sectors such as agriculture, aquaculture, infrastructure, water supply and local livelihood (ISET, 2013). According to the climate change scenario of the Ministry of Environment and Natural resource of Vietnam, the Mekong delta will be impacted significantly by sea level rise and salinity intrusion in the future (MONRE, 2012). The close proximity of measured saline intrusion to the cities and provinces in the Mekong delta and the vulnerability of residents to that intrusion have made this an issue of concern for people in the region. The combination of land subsidence, sea level rise, upstream dams and extractions, and tidal flows are projected to produce rapidly increasing salinity levels. With an unusually high reliance on surface water for industrial, residential, and agricultural use, the regional stakeholders quickly recognized the need to respond to the situation. To further complicate matters, daily fluctuations provided a strong impetus to monitor levels as could provide real-time data to ensure that citizens, water utilities, public health agencies, farmers, and local industries were informed.

This paper introduces a new model of real-time salinity monitoring system, which has been installed, and maintaining in the Mekong delta. Without the ability to halt the salinization process, the paper presented a strong example of resilience planning. It enabled adaptive management at a household and institutional level. It brought multiple stakeholders together, including city and national departments within government, and also involved collaboration with telephone companies to deliver SMS alerts. In addition, it focused on a pressing, but not immediate challenge, a category for which it's difficult to generate interest or commitment. This paper also reviews scientific information related to salinity intrusion as well as the perspectives of scientists, key local stakeholders, and local communities in order to assess the likelihood for salinity intrusion in the Mekong delta and, based on that, review possible options for the next steps of planning and decision making.

# Impacts of climate change in the Bolivian Altiplano

PL. Pacheco Mollinedo (1) ; AL. Gonzales Carrasco (2) ; J. Molina (3) ; A. Veizaga (1)

(1) Agua Sustentable, Climate Change Adaptation, la Paz, Bolivia; (2) Agua Sustentable, Climate Change, La Paz, Bolivia;

(3) Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Instituto de hidrologia e hidraulica, La Paz, Bolivia

## Introduction

The biggest impacts of global climate change will be felt mostly in developing countries, specifically smaller farmers like in the case of the Bolivian Altiplano. The vulnerability of the people living in the Bolivian Altiplano comes in various ways; one is the location, the high altitude

given semi-arid climatic conditions and the recurrence of ENSO natural phenomena.

The impacts of climate change on water resources in the Altiplano will have consequences on the availability of the resource and its growing demand to meet the requirements of drinking water and irrigation for agriculture.

The focus of the study is the Mauri and Desaguadero river basin, located in the Bolivian highlands part of the biannual (Bolivia-Peru) TDPS hydrological system (Titicaca, Desaguadero, Poopó and Coipasa salt lake). The Mauri and Desaguadero rivers provide irrigation water to more than 24.000 ha. of crops.

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the historical availability and requirements of water in a basin of the Bolivian Altiplano as a base line to build future scenarios to construct a participatory integrated adaptation Plan for the basin.

## Methods

For this topic, three specific studies (water availability, water rights and water requirements) are considered combining field work with participation of stakeholders in the area and office work to process the data acquired.

## Water availability

This procedure implies the collection and process of hydrological data (1965-2012), defining the curves of discharge of hydrometric stations in the basins Mauri – Desaguadero and Lake Titicaca, and obtaining series of daily flows, monthly averages and annual averages validated.

## Water Rights

To have a view of the local management of water in the basin, a mapping rights study was developed, it allows to spatially visualize the water rights in relation with the customary rules applied to the social organizations of users. The methodology consists on interviews to stakeholders, workshops with communities and processing work. The most important tool is the GIS to process the information (Villarroel et al., 2014).

## Water requirements

The water requirements methodology for crops and wetlands begins with the collection of productive information, weather information and the information about social management of water.

The main irrigated crops in the area are alfalfa (Medicago sativa), potato (Solanum tuberosum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), oats (Avena sativa), wheat (Triticum aestivum), native grasses, introduced grasses and quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa). A considerable area of wetlands is also important for the requirements in the basin.

## Results and discussions

A hydrological database (1965-2012) of 21 stations located throughout the TDPS system was generated to use it in flow calculation. The results in the model showed that during the period 1990 – 2012 a significant reduction of the annual average flow is observed for the stations in the Mauri and Desaguadero Rivers. The reduction on the average flow of the Desaguadero river is caused by the contributions of Titicaca Lake, rainfall reduction and increased water usage in the upper side of the watershed (Molina et. Al. 2014).

The common law is that, in practice, grants, regulates and guarantees the rights of access to water for the residents of the area. Likewise, customary law is backed by positive law in different standards starting with the new Constitution of Bolivia that recognizes the habits and customs in water management.

After looking at the results of this study, it is important to consider that if the availability of water decreases and the water requirements increases, a deficit of water will be a fact.

# Influences of Climate Change on Freshwater Water Resources Availability in a Basin Located in Asian Monsoon Region

W. Sun (1) ; J. Yu, (1)

(1) Beijing Normal University, College of Water Sciences, Beijing, China
The influences of climate change on fresh water resources availability in Chinese Jinjiang Basin located in Asian monsoon region were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for the medium CO2 emission scenario in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projectedufficiency of full irrigation water data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period runoff shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of fresh water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient for full irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

P-2212b-14

Uncertainties in establishing hydrological
impacts of climate change: what do we
really know?

M. Tumbo (1)

(1) University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resource
Assessment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

The success of climate impact assessment studies is partly dependent upon the uncertainties in the reliability of the future climate estimates derived from one or more GCMs or RCMs but also depend upon the ability of the hydrological model to represent the catchment responses to climate variations and change. Thus, both hydrological and climate model uncertainties propagate through the entire assessment process and are not always easy

to isolate. This study of the Great Raime River basin in Tanzania is based on the use of regional estimates of mean runoff, groundwater recharge and three flow points on flow duration curves (FDCs) to constrain ensemble outputs from the Pitman monthly model using Monte Carlo parameter sampling. The constraint bounds were quantified from gauged data available for 26 sub-basins together with assumptions about the spatial variations in hydrological response using limited spatial sub-basin property and climate change data. The results are encouraging in that the simulated FDC ranges bracket the observed curves at gauging stations downstream of many ungauged sub-basins that are important sites for water resources development decision making. The established hydrological model (GW-PITMAN) with behavioural parameter sets has been utilized to simulate the effects of climate change projections on stream flow as given by three SRES A2 emissions scenarios for the near future period 2031-2060. The RCM projections of change in monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were estimated using the delta change approach where future climate conditions are compared to a reference period 1976-2005. Preliminary results based on three GCM_RCM combinations (NCC_RCA4, MPI-ESM_CRCMs and MIROC5_RCA4) clearly indicate a shift in mean discharge. There are notable changes in both high and low flows. In all three GCM-RCM combinations, low flows are lower than the historical flow conditions, while high flows are higher than historical flow conditions. The high flows correspond to the projected increase in precipitation where initial results indicate a clear tendency across the RCM to increased precipitation in the wet season and decreased precipitation in the dry season with an overall annual increase in precipitation. A comparison of the uncertainty arising from the hydrological models and GCM-RCMs combination has been established based on the upper and lower bounds of the simulated historical and future stream flows. Figure 8.2 the upper and lower bounds for the three GCM-RCM shows an overlap between the historical and future predicted uncertainty.

2213 - Ecological feedbacks to climate change

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2213-01

How biodiversity mediates feedbacks from
terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

S. Lavorel (1)

(1) CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Grenoble, France

Climate change impacts ecosystems in multiple ways, in interaction with other global change drivers such as land use change, nitrogen deposition or biological invasions. These joint impacts may vary from radical shifts such as switches in vegetation types or loss of top predators to more subtle reorganisation of community composition and interactions across trophic levels. While their understanding has progressed tremendously over the past decades, many uncertainties still remain about their implications for earth system dynamics. This uncertainty is all the more critical as cascading impacts of biodiversity for the earth system have recently been recognised as one of the two highly integrated emergent system-level phenomena that are connected to all other planetary boundaries (Steffen et al. Science 2015).

Biodiversity affects ecosystem functioning and land
surface properties through multiple mechanisms. These
are often underpinned by so-called functional effects,
which reflect the fact that the morphological, structural,
biochemical or life history characteristics of organisms
directly determine their effects on ecosystem properties,
as well as their responses to global change drivers. In this
presentation I will first review the diversity of functional
mechanisms through which biodiversity affects ecosystem
properties, and especially biogeochemical cycling. This
review will emphasise the role of interactions among
the functional characteristics of organisms and global
change drivers, and between the functional characteristics
of different groups of organisms that interact as part of
ecological networks. Second I will summarise the available
evidence across scales for such effects and highlight main
uncertainties and gaps in terms of knowledge and data.

Lastly I will outline how some recent research terrestrial
modelling efforts have started to incorporate functional
diversity and its role in the response and effects of
vegetation on biogeochemical cycling.

K-2213-02

Responses of marine ecosystems to cli-
mate change and ocean acidification

W. Cheung (1)

(1) University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre,
Vancouver, Canada

Changes in temperature, oxygen level, acidity and other
ocean properties directly affect marine ecosystems
through shifts in biogeography, phenology, productivity
and trophic interactions. This paper synthesizes our
latest understanding on the extent to which climate
change and ocean acidification are affecting global
marine ecosystems structure, functions and services
and the resulting vulnerability. As shown by analyzing
global marine biogeography records and fisheries data,
ocean warming has already been altering marine species
assemblages in the past four decades. Moreover, mapping
of vulnerability of almost 1000 species marine fishes in the
global ocean based on their exposure to climate stressors
and biological sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicates
that most of the studied marine fishes become highly
vulnerable to climate change under high greenhouse gas
emission scenarios. Such findings corroborate with results
from simulation modelling of global shifts in distributions
of marine fishes and invertebrates, highlighting the large
climate risks of regional ecosystems, particularly in the
tropics, in terms of a decrease in biodiversity and key
erosysstems services such as fisheries. Scope of adaptation
to these changes may not be sufficient to substantially
reduce these risks, particularly in sensitive ecosystems.
These evidence demonstrates the multi-facet responses of
marine ecosystems to climate change, identify hotspots of
vulnerable ocean regions to climate change, and highlights
the need for ongoing interdisciplinary efforts between
marine biologists, ecologists, oceanographers are needed
to further reveal the multi-scales (spatial, temporal and
organizational) responses of marine ecosystems to climate change, ocean acidification and interactions with other human stressors.

## O-2213-01

### Ecological emergence of thermal clines in body size

E. Edeline (1); G. Lacroix (1); C. Delire (2); N. Poulet (3); S. Legendre (4)

(1) Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Paris, France; (2) GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Météo-France, Paris, France; (3) French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environments (ONEMA), Vincennes, France; (4) CNRS, UMR 7625 Ecologie & Evolution, Paris, France

The unprecedented rate of global warming requires a better understanding of how ecosystems will respond. Organisms often have smaller body sizes under warmer climates (Bergmann's rule and the temperature-size rule), and body size is a major determinant of life histories, demography, population size, nutrient turnover rate, and food-web structure. Therefore, by altering body sizes in whole communities, current warming can potentially disrupt ecosystem function and services. However, the underlying drivers of warming-induced body downsizing remain far from clear. Here, we show that thermal clines in body size are predicted from universal laws of ecology and metabolism, so that size-dependent selection from competition (both intra and interspecific) and predation favours smaller individuals under warmer conditions. We validate this prediction using 4.1 million individual body size measurements from French river fish spanning 29 years and 52 species. Our results suggest that warming-induced body downsizing is an emergent property of size-structured food webs, and highlight the need to consider trophic interactions when predicting biosphere reorganizations under global warming.

## O-2213-02

### From cut twig to satellite – understanding the full response of phenology to climate change

A. Menzel (1)

(1) Technische Universität München, Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany

Phenology (the timing of seasonal natural events such as plant growth, animal migration) is now commonly as indicator for evaluating responses of ecosystems to climate change. More than 500 papers are published annually that include 'phenolog' in their title and many of them are related to anthropogenic change. Recent phenological changes have been reported across the globe, continents, ecosystems, habitats and taxa, predominantly as mean temporal changes ('trends') or as relationships to temperature and other drivers ('responses'); they have been summarized in various meta-analyses as well as in the IPCC WG II contributions to the AR4 and AR5. Although it has been well known during the 20th century that phenological events are triggered predominantly by climate, it was only in the late 1990s that phenology emerged as a key asset in identifying fingerprints of climate change in natural systems, when significantly advancing spring events were identified on larger scales mirroring recent warming.

Since then, phenological research has made considerable advances but is now at a crossroads of understanding its full climate change response and associated variability. Especially, other drivers of phenology than forcing by spring temperature, such as chilling and photoperiodistening before too early spring development and thus damage by late spring frosts, precipitation, snow, nutrients, ambient CO₂ concentration or management effects have been come to the fore. In addition, more emphasis has been given on reproductive phases and autumn changes in the last decade. The reported variability in observed trends and responses has been related to geno-/phenotypes, microclimate in stands, provenances and origins, species, species traits and phylogeny, regional climates and methodological considerations.

The timing of leaf development strongly regulates earth-atmosphere interactions and thus climate feedbacks, e.g. via biogeochemical cycles and impacts on the

global energy balance, as well as biotic processes, such as pollination, agricultural and forestry production, and human health (via allergenic pollen). Thus, a full explanatory understanding of phenological drivers, accurate predictions and development of adaptation options are emerging topics which also need a full acknowledgement of the observed variability in trends and responses. In data-intensive analyses of observations, the inherent variability may facilitate the correct identification of all drivers, whereas no level experimental approaches, the observed variability may call for a higher number of species, treatments and replicates. Variability may yield to more plasticity and resilience to climate change and thus phenological responses will drive the fitness and adaptation capacities of species. In this review, I summarize the current knowledge and recent insights into observed changes in phenology from satellite data to multispecies records, describe observed spatiotemporal variability linked to species traits and regional climates and highlight the role of additional drivers other than spring climate recently derived from cut twigs. Only a full consideration of variation in these responses will allow a complete understanding of ecological, cultural and socioeconomic consequences of these phenological changes mirroring climate change, driving impacts in the biosphere and feeding back to the climate system.

## 2213-POSTER PRESENTATIONS

### P-2213-01

### Effect of climate and site factors on exotic plant invasion in West Virginia, USA

R. Gazal (1); M. Burkowski, (1); K. Gazal, (2)

(1) Glenville State College, Department of Land Resources, Glenville, WV, United States of America; (2) West Virginia University, School of natural resources, Morgantown, WV, United States of America

Global climate change is known to contribute to the proliferation of non-native invasive plants worldwide. Moreover, human-caused soil disturbance favors the growth of invasive plants, which negatively impacts the productivity of forest ecosystems. This study aims to examine the distribution of invasive plants in West Virginia and identify the site and climatic factors that contribute to exotic plant invasion. In 2007–2008, the U. Northern Research Station's Forest Inventory Analysis Program (NRS-FIA) surveyed the presence and extent of 20 invasive plants in West Virginia. Approximately 20% of permanent forested plots in 46 of the 55 counties were surveyed. The non-native plants were chosen based on range, invasiveness, and level of landowner interest. We generated maps and performed geospatial analysis using Geographic Information System (ArcGIS v.10). The most abundant invasive species was multiflora rose, Rosa multiflora which was present in 48% of the forested plots and 77% of the inventoried counties. Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimeium) occurred in 52% of WV counties and was recorded in 24% of the sample plots. Nearly 25% of the sample plots containing Japanese stiltgrass had 25 to 70% cover. Autumn olive (Elaeagnus umbellata), tree-of-heaven (Ailanthus altissima), and garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata) were present in 18, 14, and 10% of the forested plots, respectively. Each of West Virginia's ecoregions contains large number of invasive species with the Northern Ridge and Valley and Southern Unglaciated Allegheny Plateau sections containing the highest amount of 85% (n=17). Among the 46 counties, Hardy County contained the largest number of invasive plants surveyed at 65%, while Lewis County held 50%, and Ritchie and Hampshire Counties contained 45%. Logistic regression analysis of site and climatic factors (p < 0.05) reveals that the occurrence of Japanese stilt grass and garlic mustard is indirectly related to elevation and temperature while forest cover and road density are directly related to the presence of Japanese stilt grass and tree-of-heaven, respectively. Understanding invasive species and the environments where they exist is essential to gauge their impact and control their spread in West Virginia. Key site factors (elevation, aspect and slope), disturbance regime (land use types, amount of timber removal, degree of urbanization, fire occurrences and road density) and climate factors (temperature and precipitation) contribute to rapid increase in the distribution and abundance of non-native invasive plants.
## How soil microorganisms respond to and feedback climate change under non-ex-treme to extreme water fluctuations

JC. Lata (1) ; A. Kaisermann (2)

(1) IES Paris (Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences - Paris, Community Diversity & Ecosystem Functioning (DCFE), France, France; (2) The University of Manchester, Faculty of life sciences, Manchester, United Kingdom

The response of soil to water fluctuations is poorly understood which result in high uncertainties about the effects of climate change and the associated feedbacks. Through several French national and regional research programs, different scenarios of drought-wetting (DW) intensities were simulated in microcosms and the dynamics of telluric microbial communities were followed to assess their stability in terms of diversity and function.

These studies highlighted a critical minimum moisture threshold below which microbial community stress was induced. Below this threshold, the wetting of dry soils induced (i) a large flux of CO2 (called the 'Birch effect'), which could be finely predicted from the intensity and duration of drought and wetting and (ii) erosion of bacterial diversity, leading to a structural instability in the following DW conditions. Despite the potential functional resilience, bacterial and fungal communities exhibited permanent modifications. Finally, the effects of DW events were also partially modulated by the soil physicochemical characteristics inherited from management practices.

These changes in microbial communities may be related to the size of soil pores, with more intense drying causing usually moist micropores to dry out. The stress of microbial populations less adapted to these disturbances, could result in (i) higher population turnover and intense competition for new available ecological niches and (ii) the establishment of physiological mechanisms such as the synthesis of extracellular protections. Upon wetting, this C would be immediately dissolved and mineralised. This is an alternative explanation for the increase in substrate availability and the CO2 flush that occurs after rewetting.

Taken together, the integration of climate change drivers investigated in this work could improve the modeling of C fluxes in soils undergoing DW cycles that feedback both atmospheric and soil C compartments. It also raises the issue of the existence of a tipping point in the decline of diversity beyond which an erosion or cut-off of the functions and services provided by ecosystems could be induced.

## Influence of climate changes on growth and initial development of tambaqui (Colosoma macropomum) larvae (Characiformes, Serrasalmidae)

MC. Portela (1) ; I. Guidini Lopes (1) ; TBDA. Silva (1) ; JT. Kojima (2) ; AL. Val (3)

(1) UNESP - Univ. Estadual Paulista, Centro de aquicultura da unesp, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil; (2) UNESP - Univ. Estadual Paulista, Faculdade de ciências agrárias, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil; (3) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil

Introduction: The Amazon is the most diverse biome in the planet, hosting a number of plants, animals and microorganisms, being specially subjected to worldwide climate changes due to constant human activities affecting this biome. Amazonian species show important adaptation capacity, allowing them to explore challenging environments throughout the year. Larval development of fish is a very dynamic phase, marked by morphophysiological changes during the organogenesis of the main systems. Therefore, initial phases are especially critical and the interactions with the environment define the adult individual. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate changes on the initial development of an important Amazonian fish species, the tambaqui - Colosoma macropomum.

Material and Methods: The predicted scenarios by the

IPCC AR4 for climate change (Current CT, Mild B1, Moderate A1B and Drastic A2) were simulated in real time controlled microcosms - at the "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia", Manaus - AM, Brazil - based on the current climate conditions. Ten 9-L tanks, equipped with recirculation system, containing 300 newly hatched larvae each were positioned in each microcosm. Larvae were kept for 16 days and periodically collected to perform biomarkers analysis. The initial analysis was of folk consumption, notochord length and standard length were analyzed by one-way ANOVA with Tukey post-hoc, and are presented as Means ± SE.

Results: Temperature, CO2 concentration, dissolved oxygen and water pH are shown in Table 1. Yolk consumption was not different among treatments throughout the 60-day experimental period (days 1 to 14 and day 5 of 0.7095 ± 0.007 mm2 and 0.2583 ± 0.016 mm2, respectively). Larvae submitted to the CT and A2 scenarios showed, by the end of the experiment, similar standard length (6.764 ± 0.170 mm and 6.877 ± 0.148 mm, respectively), but were significantly smaller (P < 0.05) than larvae in B1 and A1B (7.573 ± 0.141 and 7.804 ± 0.247 mm, respectively). During the first two days, high mortality was observed in all treatments (approximately 50%) due to an unknown cause, and by the end of the experiments, survival rates were calculated considering the initial density of the tanks. Survival rate in CT was 29.3 ± 0.3%, significantly higher (P<0.001) than in A1B (26.3 ± 0.7%) and in A2 (24.7 ± 1.0%). In the B1 scenario, the survival rate was intermediary (27.5 ± 0.6%).

Discussion: The causes of high mortality in the first two days of the experiment could not be identified. However, the stress of the transportation of the yolk-sac larvae (about 200 km) and the water quality differences from the water of transportation and the water in the microcosms must be considered, despite the use of a rigorous protocol of acclimatization. When exposed to higher temperatures (A2), the larvae energy demand to supply the increased metabolism is also higher. Considering that yolk consumption did not differ among treatments, it is assumed that the efficiency of this initial source of energy in the yolk-sac larvae may have been compromised at higher temperatures, subsequently resulting in smaller larvae and higher mortality. Treatments with intermediate temperatures (B1 and A1B, ranging from 29 to 30.5 °C) allowed better growth.

Conclusions: The predicted scenarios of future climate change by the IPCC. For the end of the century, mainly the drastic change may affect the initial development of this Neotropical fish species, leading to high mortality rates.

<table><caption>Table 1. Mean values of temperature (temp, °C), CO2 concentration (ppm) in the air and water, pH and dissolved oxygen (DO, mg.L-1) in the tanks installed in each microcosm. Values are presented as Mean ± SE.</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Current</th><th>Bland</th><th>Moderate</th><th>Drastic</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Room Temp</td><td>26.74 ± 2.08</td><td>28.72 ± 2.05</td><td>29.68 ± 2.01</td><td>31.70 ± 2.07</td></tr><tr><td>Water Temp</td><td>27.71 ± 1.19</td><td>29.23 ± 1.26</td><td>30.35 ± 1.07</td><td>32.05 ± 0.76</td></tr><tr><td>[CO2] Room</td><td>486.43 ± 32.69</td><td>690.00 ± 36.59</td><td>885.37 ± 28.42</td><td>1330.75 ± 30.49</td></tr><tr><td>[CO2] Water</td><td>5.26 ± 0.78</td><td>7.17 ± 1.35</td><td>11.16 ± 3.85</td><td>15.20 ± 2.84</td></tr><tr><td>Water pH</td><td>7.10 ± 0.22</td><td>7.03 ± 0.27</td><td>6.96 ± 0.22</td><td>6.80 ± 0.27</td></tr><tr><td>DO</td><td>7.02 ± 0.16</td><td>6.89 ± 0.26</td><td>6.99 ± 0.11</td><td>6.85 ± 0.16</td></tr></tbody></table>

## Effects of Climate Change on Bird Migration in Iran

S. Sadeghi Zadegan (1) ; M. Mahmoudi (2)

(1) Department of Environment, Natural Environment Deputy, Wildlife Bureau, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
Climate change can directly affect birds through changes in temperature and precipitation. Drainage of wetlands is from the direct effects of climate change, which can indirectly affect bird's life. Around 70% of wetlands are seriously subject to dry or water loss. Even the rice fields, which defined as a wetland type, and very important for birds, are rapidly decreasing, converting to the other cultivations and uses. Birds in Iran are affected by climate change in various ways, such as distribution, abundance and migration behavior. Statistics and observations suggest that the birds are selected more northern altitude for wintering. As well, they arriving to wintering grounds later and leaving the area a bit earlier. A huge breeding colony of Greater Flamingos are disappeared in

Uromiyeh Lake due to serious drainage this international wetland. The Siberian crane is a critically endangered migratory wetland bird numbering 3,000 individuals worldwide, which breed in arctic Russia and Siberia, which recent climatic conditions in these areas have seen rivers and lakes shrinking, causing wetlands to become more accessible to hunters. The western population of this species is dropped to only one single bird. Noting that climate change will put a lot of birds in danger of extinction in the future, we need activities to help birds to mitigate and adapt against changes. One way should be conserve local bird habitats, through the community based and grassroots programs and invested in on-the-ground projects involving Important Bird Areas.

# 2214 - Climate-ready adaptation for conservation and ecosystem services

## ORAL PRESENTATIONS

K-2214-01

### The response of species and ecosystems to large and rapid climate changes in the past: information for conservation policy in an uncertain future

IC. Prentice (1)

(1) Imperial College London, Department of Life Sciences, Ascot, United Kingdom

Contrary to the impression given by some recent, high-profile reports, climate changes of similar magnitude and rate to those projected for the 21st century have occurred repeatedly in the geologically recent past, during and at the terminations of glacial periods. The causes and geographic patterns of these natural climate changes were quite different from those of contemporary climate change, which has two additional distinguishing properties: the fact that it is superimposed on a warm (interglacial) rather than a glacial base state, and the fact that it could – in the absence of mitigation – continue longer, and ultimately exceed the bounds of what the biota have experienced during several million years of Earth history.

Nonetheless, the palaeoecological record can provide uniquely valuable evidence on how the biotic response to a fast-changing environment. Examination of the last glacial termination yields surprising (and in many ways encouraging) findings. Known extinctions were few, except among large mammals. Among hundreds of tree species known to have existed worldwide at the last glacial maximum, just one became extinct. A variety of responses allowed the great majority of species to persist, either in situ (through toleration or local habitat shifts), or by migration at remarkable velocities. These findings suggest a continuing role for conservation policies that focus on the maintenance and spatial continuity of habitats. They also suggest that the species most vulnerable to climate change may also be those that suffer most from other, non-climatic pressures.

K-2214-02

### Enabling transformative adaptation

M. Colloff (1) ; S. Lavorel (2) ; R. Wise (1) ; M. Dunlop (3) ; R. Gordard (1)

(1) CSIRO, Land and water, Canberra, Australia; (2) CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Grenoble, France; (3) CSIRO, Land & water, Canberra, Australia

The Transformative Adaptation Research Alliance (TARA) has developed an operational framework to study and support transformative adaptation, linking three novel concepts of 'adaptation services', the 'values-rules-knowledge (vrk) perspective' and 'adaptation pathways'. Adaptation services describes future options provided to people by ecosystems, recognising changing societal perspectives on ecosystem management and use. The vrk perspective focuses on the societal system and how we can free up constraints on the decision context for implementation. The adaptation pathways concept provides the means for planning and sequencing the

actions required for transformative adaptation. Uniting these concepts allows the exploration of interactions between changing biophysical systems and co-evolving societal systems in order to enable deliberation, choice and decision-making.

K-2214-03

### Biodiversity conservation under climate change: do we need a new approach?

G. Mace (1) ; M. Dickinson (2)

(1) University College London, Genetics, Evolution and Environment, London, United Kingdom; (2) Imperial College London, Grantham Institute - climate change and environment, London, United Kingdom

Climate change is predicted to have major implications for species and ecosystems, acting as a driver of biodiversity loss in its own right and amplifying the effects of existing threats. It differs from other pressures, such as land-use change or over-exploitation, in the global extent and pervasive nature of its potential impacts on biodiversity. The potential magnitude of climate change impacts calls for a policy response, but the type of response and the species or regions to be targeted remains unclear. Predictions for wide-scale extinction and disruption of communities and ecosystems has led some to question whether traditional conservation practices, such as protected areas, will continue to be effective. Others have called for radical and interventionist strategies, such as moving species from their current locations to regions that are predicted to be climatically suitable.

We will provide some recommendations for conservation management under climate change based on the emerging science of integrated vulnerability assessment. This uses multiple sources of information, a greater understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of vulnerability, and identifies proxies and predictors for sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

Effective conservation policy and practice will need to embrace some change rather than aiming to preserve existing ecosystems with their component species. Distinctions between native and non-native species may become less relevant as species shift their geographic ranges. Global rather than regional or national targets or criteria for species or habitat protection or designation of protected areas may be more appropriate as species' ranges and abundances change. A focus on ecosystem function and resilience may be more appropriate than on maintenance of community composition. Traditional practices, such as protecting or restoring habitat within reserves, may support function and resilience by allowing existing systems to absorb the impacts of climate change. Improving permeability of the landscape or connectedness between reserves may be required to facilitate range shifts, either through spatial structuring of new reserves of by enhancement of natural linear features, such as rivers and hedgerows.

Uncertainty as to future climate may be, to some extent, irreducible and be incorporated into decision frameworks and interventions through adaptive management and scenario planning. Early applications of integrated vulnerability frameworks suggest that tropical regions may be centres of climate change vulnerability. Climate change, coupled with predicted increased in land-use
change in these regions, suggests that tropical zones
may be future centres of biodiversity loss. Stemming loss
is likely to require a co-ordinated international response,
with transfer of expertise and financial assistance from
high-income developed temperate nations to assist low
income tropical nations in increasing their level of human
social development in a sustainable manner.

K-2214-04

Powerful deliberate practices for enabling
transformative adaptation

I. Fazey (1)

(1) University of Dundee, School of environment, Dundee, United Kingdom

Anticipatory and transformative adaptation in the face of
climate change, including for biodiversity conservation
and maintenance of ecosystem services, is an intentional
process. It requires the facilitation of the enabling
conditions for significant and qualitative societal changes
well beyond minor or incremental adjustments. Yet there
is currently little understanding about how such deliberate
significant changes come about, and at the rates
necessary to reduce the threat of climate change. This
presentation will therefore examine the nature and role
of powerful deliberate practices (the tools, activities and
processes) for helping to create the enabling conditions
for transformative adaptation and conservation of
biodiversity. The presentation will do four things. First, it
will explain the concept of transformative adaptation and
the challenges involved in facilitating enabling conditions.
Second, it will explain the kinds of research that is that
can simultaneously help understand transformation
while also accelerating transformation in practice. This
necessarily involves: (i) integrating existing theory, such
as social practice theory and social technical transitions
to overcome epistemological and ontological differences;
and (ii) the bridging and integration of different kinds of
knowledge, including academic (episteme) and new
practitioners (phronesis). Third, it presents a new concept
called 'powerful deliberate practices' as a way to overcome
some of the challenges of working on transformation.
This concept is important because its emphasis on: (i)
'powerful' highlights the need to understand which
practices are most useful, for which circumstances, and
why for adaptation and biodiversity conservation; (ii)
'deliberate' highlights the need for approaches that can
directly contribute to change in the present rather than, for
example, looking to poorly suited past cases or changes as
aues for the contemporary issues; and (iii) 'practices' highights the need to understand the complexities
and subtleties of interventions for conservation and
adaptation as a collection of tools, activities and processes
in systems of wider, less conscious social practices.
Finally, an example of Three Horizons will be used of a
powerful deliberate deliberate practice. Three Horizons is a process used to facilitate dialogue between individuals
with different values and mindsets to map out processes
of transition and transformation. The approach is able to
both deal with situations of high uncertainty and has been
found to create radical changes in how participants
relate to the future and view themselves as credible
actors in shaping change, and is thus relevant to diverse
circumstances, including transformative adaptation and
the management of ecosystem governance and change.
In conclusion, a research agenda is needed to develop,
integrate and understand the role of a suite of powerful
deliberate practices to accelerate learning about the
enabling conditions for transformative change. This will
necessarily involve new transformative modes of research
that are significantly and qualitatively different from many
of those already being applied.

O-2214-01

Expanding the horizons of governance for
adaptation pathways: illustrations from
protected areas management

C. Wyborn (1) ; L Van Kerkhoff (2)

(1) WWF International, Luc Hoffmann Institute, Gland,
Switzerland; (2) The Australian National University, Fenner
School of Environment and Society, Canberra, ACT, Australia

The concept of adaptation pathways is expanding our ideas
of governance for adaptation to include wider social and
institutional dimensions of organisation, decision-making

and implementation. This is captured by the "values-
rules-knowledge" construct. Drawing on recent work in
adaptive governance and long-standing development
studies literature and practice, we propose that we can
combine this construct with complementary perspectives
to develop a more holistic framework for governance
in examining transitions to more sustainable and adaptive
development pathways. This expanded framework
incorporates culture and corruption, power and politics,
resources and capacity, and process and vision. We
present this framework, and demonstrate its application
through retrospective application to research on public
land management in Colorado, USA, and prospectively to
a pilot study on the Pacific island of Palau, specifically the
Protected Areas Network (PAN) Fund. These illustrations
suggests that the framework can be used as a device to
help us identify 'deeper', more structurally-embedded
influences that shape values, rules and knowledge, that
support or inhibit transformational change, as well as
some of the practical implications. Importantly, it also
has the potential to alert us to crucial 'blind spots' in
our investigations and analyses of governance for adaptation
in the face of global environmental change, as well as to
identify opportunities for institutional innovation.

O-2214-02

Global scenarios that achieve multiple
sustainability targets: challenges for IPBES
and IPCC

P. Leadley (1)

(1) Univ. Paris-Sud, Lab. Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution,
Orsay, France

Several global sustainability goals for the 21st century have
been agreed upon or are being discussed in the context of
global multilateral environmental agreements. These
include keeping global warming to 2°C or less for the 21st
century (UNFCCC objective under discussion), halting the
loss of biodiversity by 2050 (Convention on Biological
Diversity) and attaining these while simultaneously meeting
human development goals under the UN post-2015 global
development goals currently under discussion. Scenarios
of future global development suggest that achieving these
multiple targets simultaneously will require substantial
societal targets. Many of these transformations
have not been fully explored in global scenarios, even
though many studies have shown that these can play very
large roles in achieving multiple sustainability targets. This
talk will review some of the key challenges facing IPCC and
IPBES (International Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity
and Ecosystem Services) in developing the next generation
of global scenarios of socio-economic development,
using examples from the IPCC SSP scenarios, the Global
Biodiversity Outlook 4, the UNEP Green Economy report
and a wide range of published studies. This analysis
suggests in that transformations of food systems, in
terms of marine fisheries, aquaculture, agriculture, food
transformation and food consumption can make major
contributions to achieving a wide range of sustainability
targets.

2214 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS

P-2214-01

Guiding Agricultural Expansion to Spare
Tropical Forests

A. Baccini (1) ; E. Dinerstein (2) ; M. Anderson (3) ; G. Fiske
(4) ; E. Wikramanayake (2) ; D. Mclaughlin (5) ; G. Powell (3)
; D. Olson (2) ; A. Joshi (6)

(1) The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, United States of America; (2) Resolve, Biodiversity and wildlife solutions program, Washington DC, United States of America; (3) World Wild Fund, Washington, United States of America; (4) The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole Research Center, United States of America; (5) World Wild Fund, Markets program, Washington, United States of America; (6) University of Minnesota, Conservation biology program, St. Paul, United States of America

Expanding commodity crop production in the tropics
presents the dual challenge of enhancing food production
while preserving tropical moist forests (TMF) ecosystems
and the carbon that they store. Over the years, biologists
have prioritized biodiversity rich areas and made recommendations on conservation imperatives. Conversely, agricultural imperatives—and especially commodity crops—typically ignore biodiversity and carbon content values when converting new lands for expansion, even though the ecosystem services from the latter are vital to sustain the former. In this analysis we attempt to reconcile biodiversity, carbon storage, and agricultural imperatives by identifying low-carbon density land (LCDL) for large-scale agriculture, drainage, and sustainability of these degraded forests can be made suitable for agriculture, and provide opportunities to expand the commodity and industrialized agricultural footprint with minimal loss of biodiversity and CO2 emissions

Here, we propose a transparent approach for shifting agricultural expansion away from biodiversity and carbon density values when converting new lands for expansion, even though the ecosystem services from the latter are vital to sustain the former. In this analysis we attempt to reconcile biodiversity, carbon storage, and agricultural imperatives by identifying low-carbon density land (LCDL) for large-scale agriculture, drainage, and sustainability of these degraded forests can be made suitable for agriculture, and provide opportunities to expand the commodity and industrialized agricultural footprint with minimal loss of biodiversity and CO2 emissions

P-2214-02

## Treeline Dynamics with Climate Change in Nepal Himalaya

DR. Bhuju, (1); NP. Gaire (2); P. Rana, (3); UK. Thapa, (4); SK. Shah, (5); M. Koirala, (1); M. Carrer, (6); S. Bhandari, (1); B. Shrestha, (7); A. Shrestha, (8); R. Ghale, (9); YR. Dhakal, (10)

(1) Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan university, Kathmandu, Nepal; (2) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Faculty of Science, Lalitpur, Nepal; (3) Nepal Academy of Agriculture, drainage, and technology, Faculty of science, Lalitpur, Nepal; (4) Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, United States of America; (5) Birbal Sahnii Institute of Paleobiochemistry, Lucknow, India; (6) Department of Land and Agro-forest Environment, University of padova, Padova, Italy; (7) GoldenGate International College, Department of environmental science, Kathmandu, Nepal; (8) Sanita rama Rana Company, EDP Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal; (9) Karnali integrated Rana's rich tree diversity emanating from varied climate with a narrow geography of extreme topographic range (Alt. 60 m to >8000 m asl) provides opportunities for multi aspect tree-ring research. The high altitude climatic treelines are sensitive biomarkers and bioindicators of past and recent climate change and variability as well as warning line to the climatic impacts on high altitude biota and livelihood. Science based empirical studies on the impacts of climate change in high-altitude ecosystems and their components are yet new approach in the Himalaya especially in Nepal.

The imprints of climate change impacts have evidently been recorded from the natural habitats of the Himalaya. Available climatic data show a rapid increase in the average annual temperature in Nepal and Nepal-Sierra compared to other regions. Rana's rich tree diversity emanating from varied climate with a narrow geography of extreme topographic range (Alt. 60 m to >8000 m asl) provides opportunities for multi aspect tree-ring research. The high altitude climatic treelines are sensitive biomarkers and bioindicators of past and recent climate change and variability as well as warning line to the climatic impacts on high altitude biota and livelihood. Science based empirical studies on the impacts of climate change in high-altitude ecosystems and their components are yet new approach in the Himalaya especially in Nepal.

We carried out a dendro-climatological study at the tree-line ecotones of seven high mountain protected areas of Nepal

Himalaya from east to west, namely: Kanchenjung, Sagarmatha (Everest), Langtang, Manaslu, Annapurna, Rara and Api-Nampa, with an aim to assess the impact of climate change in the tree-lines. Two to three sites were selected in each protected area. Vertical transect plots (10-20 m x 100-250 m wide) were laid down in each tree line site covering different aspects of mountain slopes. In addition to ecological details, more than 1200 tree core samples from major treeline species, viz. Abies sibirica, Abies balsamoides, Abies balsamoides D. Don and Rhododendron campanulatum D. Don were collected. Using the ecological and dendronautical tools, climatic response on radial growth and regeneration, recruitment and dynamics of these species were analyzed.

The position of tree-line in the east (Lat. 27.7155 N) was higher (Alt. 4150 m asl) in the west (Alt. 3800 m als; Lat. 29.8750 N). The size parameters such as tree density, basal area, diameter at height, height and age decreased with increasing elevation revealing dynamic nature of tree-lines though it presented some spatial heterogeneity. High regeneration of A. spectabilis as compared to B. utilis was observed in most of the sites. The population age structure of these species showed both stand densification as well as upward shifting of tree-line in many sites. The tree core analysis showed that in most sites, B. utilis appeared first which was later displaced by A. spectabilis. High regeneration of A. spectabilis in recent years compared to that of B. utilis indicated that the tree-lines in Nepal Himalaya are changing along with the species composition and dominance.

The upward shift of A. spectabilis was clearly observed, the shifting rate ranged from 1.1 m to 3.6 m per year. An invariant positive correlation among the site chronologies of these species was also noted, indicating that there prevailed some common climatic factors limiting the growth and dynamics of the trees. Tree growth-climate and regeneration-climate relationship showed that warm winter and moist summer favoured the regeneration of A. spectabilis, while pre-monsoon (March-May) climate enhanced the radial growth. Growth of B. utilis in most of the sites was mainly limited by moisture stress during pre-monsoon months just before the monsoon. Changing management structure and climate growth response indicated that both the species had species specific response to climate change. Hence, a wider difference is anticipated in the population attributes of the species as climate continues to change in the future. These shifting also have implications on the poor mountain people whose livelihood depend on marginal rangeland just above the tree-lines.

P-2214-03

## A Perspective on Conservation of Sub-Tropical Grassland in Eastern Himalaya

D. Das (1)

(1) ATREE, Bengalure, India

The matrix of riverine grasslands and grassland-forest mosaics in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river valleys in the eastern Himalayan foothills are some of world's tallest and most productive. These tall grassland forest mosaics are the last remaining examples of subtropical tall grasslands in the Indian subcontinent, and contain some of the highest densities of tigers, rhinos, and ungulates in Asia. These grassland mosaics are maintained by a suite of disturbance processes including flooding, fire, and grazing. Manas National Park, a world heritage site and a tiger reserve with an area of 519 sq. km, situated in the North bank landscape of Assam. A socio-political change in the North bank landscape led to a disruption of management practices in the Park. These changes lasted over 15 years, and as a result, fire regimes and grazing practices changed. Wild populations of herbivores and carnivorous plants were reduced. Coupled with changes in river flow, these changes have led to significant alteration in the grassland community in both local and regional level. Recent observations have shown an increase in the spread of species that are dominant in drier ecosystems, as well as occurrence of tree species in areas previously occupied by grasslands, changing savanna grasslands to woodland. This dynamism is probably driven by the interacting effects of environmental variation, changing management regimes, human interactions, and ecosystem feedbacks. The system probably experiences fluctuating species composition and wide variation in population dynamics of plant species, but none of this has been clearly documented.