# Risk storylines to investigate people's habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) within the context of multiple climatic risks

Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi, Gilles Drogue, Simon Devin

► To cite this version:

Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi, Gilles Drogue, Simon Devin. Risk storylines to investigate people's habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) within the context of multiple climatic risks. INQUIMUS 2024, Dec 2024, Bolzano, Italy. hal-04836017

HAL Id: hal-04836017

https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-04836017v1

Submitted on 13 Dec 2024

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access
archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-
entific research documents, whether they are pub-
lished or not. The documents may come from
teaching and research institutions in France or
abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est
destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents
scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non,
émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de
recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires
publics ou privés.

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

UNIVERSITÉ
DE LORRAINE

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

LOTERR

Centre de recherche en géographie

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

# RISK STORYLINES TO INVESTIGATE PEOPLE'S HABITABILITY IN THE VOSGES MASSIF (FRANCE) WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MULTIPLE CLIMATIC RISKS

SILVIA DE ANGELI¹,², STEFANO TERZI³, GILLES DROGUE², SIMON DEVIN¹

1. Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), UMR CNRS 7360, Université de Lorraine, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France

2. Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, F-57000 Metz, France

3. Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy

Contacts: silvia.de-angeli@univ-lorraine.fr

## THE RESEARCH CHALLENGES

* Climate change, compounding with non-climatic stressors, impacts socio-ecological systems and threatens the human habitability of places

* **The complex interplay of drivers and impacts introduces high levels of uncertainty, complicating future predictions of habitability**

* While habitability is internationally recognised as an important condition in adaptation studies, its definition and conceptualisation are still under discussion

* **Habitability studies mostly apply a top-down approach and focus on its material aspects, such as housing, food, and water, while overlooking local knowledge**

## THE CONTEXT

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

**Habi(Li)ter - Co-defining the habitability of Lorraine under climate change and future multi-risk conditions**

Project funded by Lorraine Université d'Excellence as part of the IMPACT initiative "EPHemeris - Earth and Planet Habitability"

### GOALS

* Co-define habitability of places for human populations by developing a set of indicators and ways to measure them

* Develop a conceptual framework to elucidate the complex interplay between climate drivers, socio-economic factors, and multi-hazard risks in the region and how they might affect habitability in present and future

### METHODS

* Transdisciplinary approaches

* Use of Risk Storylines and Impact Chains

### PROJECT TIMELINE

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

Define a set of dimensions and indicators to describe local habitability

Co-create the Habi(Li)ter multi-risk conceptual framework

Generate future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios at the local scale

Update the framework including future spatial and temporal dynamics

Identify a set of adaptive strategies

Assess present and future habitability conditions

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

### CASE STUDY AREA

## THE ROLE OF RISK STORYLINES IN HABI(LI)TER

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

### Understand climate hazards and vulnerabilities

Explore how climate risks and local vulnerabilities interact, leading to cascading impacts across sectors over time. Risk Storylines help stakeholders visualize the evolution of hazards, their impacts over time, and how they may influence future habitability.

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

### Guide conceptual models

Use the narrative structure of Risk Storylines to inform the design of models that capture key risk dynamics, such as System Dynamics (temporal changes) or Impact Chains (cause-and-effect relationships).

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

### Identify habitability dynamics

Investigate the uncertainties that most influence local habitability and identify key adaptation strategies.

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

### Develop scenarios

Manage uncertainty by creating plausible future scenarios for stakeholders to consider in planning

## HABITABILITY DIMENSIONS IN THE VOSGES MASSIF

### ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE

* Biodiversity and ecosystem services

* Resilience to extreme weather events

### CONNECTIVITY

* Access to transportation and connectivity infrastructure

* Accessibility and connectivity with other locations via airports or long-distance transport networks

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

### ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AND OPPORTUNITY

* Economic stability and employment opportunities

* Access to quality education

### INCLUSION, EMPOWERMENT, AND QUALITY OF LIFE

* Citizen participation and involvement in local decision-making

* Solidarity, inclusion, and access to support services

* Access to cultural, recreational activities, and local culture

* Access to public spaces and meeting places

### BASIC NEEDS, HEALTH AND SAFETY

* Access to drinking water

* Clean air and a healthy environment

* Access to reliable energy

* Availability of agricultural land and sustainable food systems

* Access to healthcare and quality of medical services

* Personal security and sense of safety

## A RISK STORYLINE TO ASSESS HABITABILITY IMPACTS

<table><tr><td>1. Geographical and Social Context</td></tr><tr><td>• Timeframe, Location, Climatic profile, Spatial extent, Population, Land Use, Economic activities</td></tr><tr><td>2. Reference hazards (and their potential interrelationships)</td></tr><tr><td>• Main hazards</td></tr><tr><td>• Interrelationship between hazards</td></tr><tr><td>3. Key exposed systems</td></tr><tr><td>4. Key vulnerabilities</td></tr><tr><td>• Physical, socioeconomic, environmental</td></tr><tr><td>5. Long and short-term risks related to each habitability dimension</td></tr><tr><td>• Basic Needs, Health, and Safety</td></tr><tr><td>• Environmental Resilience</td></tr><tr><td>• ...</td></tr><tr><td>6. Resilience and adaptation options</td></tr></table>

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

Scan Me

This section sets the reference scenario for the development of the storyline, including timeframe, geographical context, climate profile, population information, land use, and dominant economic sectors.

This section identifies key climate hazards and explores how they may interact or amplify each other, creating cascading effects that worsen the overall risks.

Here, the key exposed systems (e.g., human settlements, agricultural lands, infrastructure, ecosystems) are identified.

This section focuses on the vulnerabilities of the exposed systems, categorized into physical, socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities.

This section outlines the potential impacts of climate hazards on the habitability of the region, considering each of the identified key habitability dimensions. It differentiates between short-term and long-term consequences.

Here potential adaptation strategies to increase the region's capacity to withstand climate impacts and ensure long-term habitability are proposed.

Here is an **example** of a Risk Storyline developed to assess the impacts of **drought** and **heatwaves** on the **habitability** of the **Vosges Massif** in 2050

## THE NEXT STEPS

* **Applying the proposed approach with local stakeholders:** in March 2025, a first workshop will be organized to (i) refine habitability dimensions, (ii) build habitability risk storylines for the Vosges Massif

* **Improving the approach,** including feedback collected during the workshop, ensuring its **feasibility** and **replicability**

* **Using the obtained Risk Storylines to inform the design of the Habi(Li)ter conceptual model,** which represents interplays between climate drivers, socio-economic factors, and multi-hazard risks in the region and how they might affect habitability in present and future

## Reference literature

* Horton, R. M., De Sherbinin, A., Wrathall, D., and Oppenheimer, M.: Assessing human habitability and migration, Science, 372, 1279-1283, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi8603, 2021.

* Duvat, V. K. E., Magnan, A. K., Perry, C. T., Spencer, T., Bell, J. D., Wabnitz, C. C. C., Webb, A. P., White, I., McInnes, K. L., Gattuso, J.-P., Graham, N. A. J., Nunn, P. D., and Le Cozannet, G.: Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes, WIREs Climate Change, 12, e700, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700, 2021.

* Pleijel, C., Lundberg, C., and Prost, P.: The Habitability Handbook - An assessment tool for viable island communities, Archipelago Institute at Åbo Akademi University, 2022.