# Health capacity to work at older ages in France

Didier Blanchet, Eve Caroli, Corinne Prost, Muriel Roger

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Didier Blanchet, Eve Caroli, Corinne Prost, Muriel Roger. Health capacity to work at older ages in France. 2016. hal-05417040

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Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2016 / 04

Health capacity to work at older ages in France

Didier BLANCHET, Eve CAROLI,

Corinne PROST et Muriel ROGER

Document de travail

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

Insee
Mesurer pour comprendre

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

Série des documents de travail
de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2016 / 04

Health capacity to work at older ages in France

Didier BLANCHET*, Eve CAROLI**,
Corinne PROST*** et Muriel ROGER****

AVRIL 2016

This paper is the French contribution to the seventh wave of the "International Social Security Project" headed at the NBER by David Wise, simultaneously published as NBER working paper n° 22024. We thank participants to meetings in Paris (February 2015) and Taormina (May 2015) for their comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and not those of the NBER nor of their institutions.

<footnote>* Insee - Direction des études et synthèses économiques</footnote>

<footnote>** PSL, University Paris Dauphine, LEDa-LEGOS, Paris School of Economics and IZA</footnote>

<footnote>*** Insee-Crest</footnote>

<footnote>**** Paris School of Economics and INRA</footnote>
# Santé et capacité de travail aux âges élevés :
deux méthodes d'évaluation

## Résumé

L'état de santé constitue l'une des barrières possibles aux politiques de remontée de l'âge de la retraite. Ce travail examine l'application au cas français de deux méthodes qui ont été proposées par la littérature pour quantifier cette contrainte. Les deux méthodes évaluent un concept de « health related work capacity » correspondant à l'écart entre les taux d'emploi effectifs et ceux qui prévaudraient sur la base d'une relation de référence conventionnelle entre emploi et indicateurs d'état de santé. La première méthode s'appuie sur l'évolution historique des taux d'emploi à taux de mortalité donnés, en faisant l'hypothèse forte que l'évolution de ces derniers est un proxy adéquat de l'évolution de l'état de santé (Milligan et Wise, 2012). La seconde s'appuie sur le lien emploi-santé observé à un âge de référence donné, pour divers indicateurs objectifs et subjectifs de l'état de santé : elle utilise ce lien pour évaluer une capacité potentielle à travailler aux autres âges, à la même période (Cutler, Meara et Richards-Shubik, 2013). Les deux méthodes suggèrent que l'état de santé ne serait pas contraignant en moyenne, mais sous des hypothèses dont on discute les limites. Nous montrons notamment que les résultats deviennent sensiblement différents lorsqu'on désagrège l'approche par catégorie sociale ou niveau d'éducation. Ceci vient appuyer l'idée que les politiques de remontée de l'âge de cessation d'activité doivent prendre en compte l'hétérogénéité des états de santé au sein de la population. Par ailleurs, ce concept de health related work capacity ne peut pas constituer un indicateur du degré auquel peuvent être poursuivies les politiques de remontée des taux d'emploi, puisqu'il laisse de côté de nombreux autres déterminants de ces taux d'emploi.

**Mots-clés** : Retraite, emploi des seniors, santé, mortalité

# Health capacity to work at older ages in France

## Abstract

Health status is one potentially limiting barrier to policies that aim at increasing retirement ages. This paper examines the application to France of two methods that have been proposed in the literature for evaluating how strong is this constraint. Both methods provide measures of a so-called « health-related additional work capacity », i.e. the gap between effective employment rates and the ones that would prevail according to some conventional reference relationship between employment and health status. The first method is based on historical changes in employment rates at given mortality levels, under the strong hypothesis that changes in mortality rates are an adequate proxy of changes in health conditions (Milligan and Wise, 2012). The second one is based on the employment-health relationship observed at a given reference age, using both subjective and objective measures of health status : this relationship is used for inferring the health-related work capacity at other ages, for the same time period (Cutler, Meara and Richards-Shubik, 2013). Both methods suggest that health would not be constraining on the average, but under assumptions whose limits are discussed. We show in particular that messages become different when results are disaggregated by social groups or education. This emphasizes the idea that policies aiming at activating any estimated additional work capacity should take into account, when possible, the heterogeneity of health conditions in the population. Moreover, additional work capacity cannot be a general indicator of how much more seniors should work as the methods used here indeed leave aside many factors that determine the employment rate of older workers.

**Keywords** : Retirement, senior employment, health, mortality

**Classification JEL** : H55, I10, J26
Sommaire

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 5

I - Employment rates and mortality: the Milligan-Wise approach ............ 8

II - Employment rates and self-assessed health:
implementing the Milligan-Wise approach.................................................. 14

III - Simulating employment rates at older ages:
the Cutler et al. (2013) approach.................................................................. 21

Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 26

References.................................................................................................................. 28

Appendix.................................................................................................................. 29
Introduction

Among comparable countries, France traditionally stands out as one of those where the labor force attachment of older workers is the lowest. This has been especially the case from the mid-80s to the beginning of the 2000s (Figure 1). The employment rate for the 60-64 age group was only 10% in 2000, 25 points below the OECD average, following a period of continuous decline that had started early in the 1970s. The decrease has been more limited for the 55-59 age group but nonetheless substantial. It has been concomitant with the shift of the legal retirement age from 65 to 60 which took place during the first half of the 1980s and favored a phase of rapid expansion of preretirement policies targeted to this 55-59 age group. This expansion was rapidly interrupted, but employment rates for male workers aged 55-59 then remained as low as about 60% throughout the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s, more than 10 points below the equivalent OECD average over the period.

Yet, the long run view provided by Figure 1 also shows that low employment rates for the 55 and above cannot be seen as a constant and irreversible feature of the French labor market. First of all because preexisting historical levels were not low at all: the decrease that occurred until the 1990s started from initial values that, in 1975, were close to OECD standards. And second because employment rates have entered a new ascending phase over the last fifteen years. Concerning the 55-59 age group, the average employment rate for both genders has already reincreased from 50% in 2000 to 66% in 2013, above its 1975 value and in line with the OECD average. Part of this trend stems from increased labor force attachment by women of all ages, rather than from a tendency to work more at older ages. But the movement is also very significant for men, whose employment rate has increased by 10 points since 2008, despite the adverse economic conditions. Concerning the 60-64 age group, the change is more progressive but not less substantial: employment rates have regained 15 percentage points, for both men and women. This is still much below the OECD average, but the convergence is real since the trend in France is steeper than for the OECD as a whole.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1 - Employment rates since 1975, 55-59 and 60-64 age groups</figcaption></figure>

Source: INSEE and OECD, Labour Force Surveys.

A reversal is therefore undoubtedly under way, partly due to tighter preretirement policies, and partly to the pension reforms that took place since 1993. According to the latest pension projections published by the Conseil d'Orientation des Retraites (Pensions Advisory Committee), if things go on as currently expected, this upward trend in employment rates should persist over the next decades, leading by 2040 to levels close to the ones that were observed in the early 70s.
The fact that most of the French ageing process is driven by large gains in life expectancy has been particularly helpful in preparing this reversal: allocating part of these gains to work rather than to retirement has been presented by policy makers as a natural and relatively acceptable way to contain the progression of pension expenditures. In such a context, arguing in favor of both the possibility and the need to increase retirement ages and older workers' employment appears to be much less necessary than it used to be some 20 years ago. Yet some questions and doubts remain. An implicit hypothesis of all past reforms has been that additional years of life are years spent in good health, or at least with a health status that can be considered reasonably compatible with work. If this is not the case, the idea of sharing these additional years of life between work and retirement becomes much less self-evident.

There is even the view that pension reforms themselves could widen the gap between global and healthy life expectancies, if they induce people to work at ages where work constraints strongly deteriorate health. In other words, a question that can be asked is whether reforms have not gone “too far” in activating the retirement age variable. Are we approaching a “health barrier” to longer working lives that would have been too rapidly ignored by past reforms? This question can be asked “on average” but also, and probably more interestingly, separately by occupations or socio-professional groups, thus questioning the adequacy of excessively uniform policies that pay too little attention to differential exposures to morbidity or mortality risks.

To tackle these issues, we rely on two different methodological approaches currently developed in the economic literature. Both methods and their variants aim at providing measures of additional work capacity. This capacity may be defined as a measure of the distance between current retirement ages and what we call the “health barrier”, i.e. the age at which health prevents people from working longer.

We first implement the method developed by Milligan and Wise (2012), denoted thereafter MW, using mortality as a proxy of health. These authors compute a measure of additional work capacity for older workers (aged 55-69), based on the gap in employment rates across time for given mortality rates. With the increase in longevity over time, the same mortality rate corresponds to different ages at different years. We extend the standard MW method, on the one hand, taking into account intra-generational mortality differentials and, on the other hand, using direct indicators of health status rather than the mortality proxy.

Second, as the MW method remains highly dependent on the reference period, we complete the study considering an alternative method, developed by Cutler, Meara and Richards-Shubik (2013), denoted thereafter CMR, that does not require any comparison over time. The approach becomes synchronic, using the work/health relationship measured at certain ages to predict the health-related work capacity of older age groups at the same period of time.

Both methods and their variants aim at providing measures of additional work capacity, i.e. measures of the existing distance between current retirement ages and our suggested concept of “health barrier”. However, they do not tell us by how much retirement ages *should* be increased. Individual and/or social choices concerning retirement ages need to consider many other parameters, both on the supply and the demand side of the labor market. What is at stake here is only one very specific aspect of the global optimization problem that would consider all these variables at the same time: it entails no message about how far policies should go in “exploiting” the employment reserve measured by additional work capacity. Evaluating where the health barrier is standing is one thing, making recommendations about how close to this barrier one should come is another thing, that is clearly out of the scope of the present paper.

Section 1 will present the application of the MW method in its original form, using long-run series of mortality rates as proxies of health status, with an extension taking into account intra-generational mortality differentials. This extension is made possible for France, thanks to a long tradition of production of life tables for major socio-economic groups. Section 2 will explore the possibility to adapt the MW method using direct indicators of health status rather
than the mortality proxy, relying on the *Enquête Santé et Protection Sociale* (ESPS) conducted by IRDES from 1992 to 2010. The CMR method will be discussed at last in Section 3. Section 4 will conclude with a short discussion of the limitations to increasing retirement ages that are not covered in the present paper.
# I - Employment rates and mortality: the Milligan-Wise approach

The Milligan-Wise methodology consists in using mortality as a proxy of health and then compute a measure of additional work capacity for older workers (aged 55-69), based on the gap in employment rates across time for given mortality rates. Data on mortality come from the French Statistical Institute, INSEE. We match them with employment rates by age computed using the French Labor Force Surveys (Enquête Emploi) over 1977-2012.

The main advantage of this approach is that the results are easily comparable across countries since mortality and employment are defined in a consistent way across national data. In contrast, it cannot be extended to women in a meaningful way over the period we consider because of the large shift in female labor force participation across cohorts. So, the focus of this section will be on men only.

## Employment vs mortality over time

The starting point of the MW methodology is the observation that in all advanced countries, both mortality and employment rates have substantially declined over the past forty years. France is no exception to these trends with male death rates at 55, 60 and 69 going down from 1.13% (resp. 1.67% and 3.45%) in 1977 to 0.62% (resp. 0.86% and 1.67%) in 2012. Over the same period, employment rates of men have gone down from 90.1% at age 55 (resp. 75.1% at 60 and 15.4% at 69) in 1977 to 82.9% at age 55 (resp. 57.3% at 60 and 4.3% at 69) in 2012.

A more telling way of presenting these changes is provided on Figure 2. We graph employment rates as a function of death rates for three different years: 1977, 1995 and 2012. For given death rates, employment has strongly decreased over time. The death rate of individuals aged 59 in 1977 (i.e. 0.0169) was reached at about 68 years old in 2012, while the corresponding employment rates are hugely different: 75.1% for the 59 year olds in 1977 as compared to only 4.3% for the 68 year olds in 2012. The changes that have taken place have generated an inward shift in the mortality-employment schedule.

This suggests that if bad health conditions – as captured by mortality – were the main obstacle to employment, older workers – aged 55 and above – could be working much more than they actually do.

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2 - Employment vs Mortality - Men</figcaption></figure>

## Measuring mortality-based work capacity

To get a precise measure of this additional work capacity, the method proceeds in the following way: for each level of the death rate, it considers what the employment rate would be at any year *t* if the relationship between employment and mortality were the same at *t* as
in a reference year – taken here to be 1977. This calculation is then cumulated over ages 55-69. This gives the number of additional years French men could have worked between 55 and 69 if the employment-mortality relationship had not changed since 1977 – see Figure 3. The additional number of years of work computed in this way is referred to as “additional work capacity”.

According to this calculation, the additional work capacity strongly increased from 0.4 years in 1978 to a peak of 8.3 years in the mid-2000s. The trend started to revert in 2009 and the additional work capacity was back to 7.7 years in 2012.

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 3 - Mortality-based additional work capacity**
**Men 55 to 69, 1978 to 2012, using 1977 as reference year**</figcaption></figure>

Given that we compute the additional work capacity on the basis of the gap in employment rates between year *t* and a reference year, it heavily depends, by construction, on the reference year that is chosen: the higher the employment rate in the reference year, the higher the additional work capacity we obtain. Since employment rates have steadily decreased in France until 2010, the additional work capacity mechanically increases with the time distance to the reference year. For year 2012, for example, it ranges from 7.3 years if the reference year is 1977 to -0.2 years if the reference year is 2010 – see Figure 4.

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 4 – Additional work capacity for men in 2012 using 1977 to 2011 as reference years**</figcaption></figure>
## The limitations of the mortality-based Milligan-Wise approach

The MW estimates deliver extreme upper bounds for potential increases in labor force participation rates, i.e. evaluations of ages beyond which health limitations definitely preclude further prolongations of working lives, according to some conventional historical standards corresponding to the reference year. To interpret the results, we must bear in mind some limits of the method. The first one is that (a) it is based on a proxy of health status whose relevance is not warranted: if past declines in mortality rates have not been accompanied by equivalent declines in morbidity, the MW method will overestimate the margin that is available for increasing employment rates of older workers. A second limit (b) is the intrinsically relative character of the results: as illustrated above, they are completely dependent on the reference period used for assessing the current level of additional employment capacity. A third limit (c) is the aggregate nature of the method: it is based on average values of age-specific mortality rates, thus ignoring the strong heterogeneity of mortality risks in the population.

Limit (a) will be addressed in the next section when we examine whether the MW method can be made more to the point by using true measures of health, rather than the mortality proxy. The last section of this chapter will try to overcome limit (b): the Cutler et al. (2013) method that will be used will avoid comparisons over time, replacing them by comparisons at time *t* across age groups. These two sections will also address limit (c), by looking at differentials in health status as observed by education level or other descriptors of socio-economic status. But a first look at the heterogeneity issue can already be provided here, without exiting the strict MW framework, thanks to the availability, for France, of mortality data by social group.

## Heterogeneity in mortality-based work capacity: managers and professionals vs blue-collars

Disaggregating life tables according to socio-economic status has a relatively long tradition in France since first systematic attempts go back to the 60s and 70s (Calot and Febvay, 1965; Desplanques, 1976). The approach combines civil registration data with information collected at successive censuses: although civil registration data provide exact age at death, they do not contain any reliable information on social status, which can be retrieved from individual census bulletins. The first studies of this kind used one-shot ad hoc confrontations of both pieces of information. Nowadays, the *Echantillon Démographique Permanent* (Permanent Demographic Sample), maintained at the French Statistical Institute INSEE, systematically matches both kinds of information for a 1% representative sample of the French population. Thanks to this panel, life tables disaggregated by social group are available off-the-shelf for the following aggregate time periods 1976-1984, 1983-1991, 1991-1998 and 2000-2008 (Blanpain and Chardon, 2011).

In these data, social stratification is described using level 1 of the French socio-economic classification. We shall focus here on managers/professionals and blue collars. In 1976-1984, life expectancies at age 35 were 41.7 years for the former group and 35.7 for the latter, i.e. a six-year gap. In 2000-2008, the corresponding figures were 47.2 and 40.9, i.e. a 6.3 year gap. At age 55, values for 1976-1984 were 23.3 and 19.2, i.e. a 4.1 year gap. For 2000-2008, they were respectively 28.4 and 23.5, i.e. a 4.9 year gap. Absolute differences are, of course, smaller at 55 than at 35 but this is only due to the fact that life expectancy decreases with age. Reevaluated in relative terms, in 2000-2008, the gap was 14% at age 35 and close to 19% at age 55.

How can such a feature be incorporated into the MW framework? The procedure we propose here fully respects the general spirit of the method and does not make use of socio-economic mortality differentials for remote time periods: only data for the most recent years are sufficient. We keep the hypothesis that average mortality-employment relationships of all past periods can be used as benchmarks, and apply these successive benchmarks to mortality rates currently observed in the two social groups we consider. The counterfactual employment rates that are produced on the basis of these group-specific mortality rates are then compared to the true employment rates observed for the same groups. The period of interest is the median year of the latest time period for which differential mortality is
available, i.e. year 2004. More precisely, we use mortality rates for 2000-2008 as proxies of mortality rates by social group in 2004 and, concerning employment rates, we average them over a three-year period centered around 2004, i.e. 2003-2005.

Another option would be to compute MW additional work capacities for each of our social groups using group-specific employment/mortality relationships. Yet this would only give a measure of how much blue collars (resp. managers/professionals) may work considering their own mortality and employment rates in the reference year, with little or no insight into the differential between them. For instance, in case of perfectly parallel changes in mortality and employment for the two groups, the result would be identical levels of additional work capacities for both, whatever the level of cross-sectional inequality between them. Put differently, this would consider that the differential gap in the reference year is also a reference and can be considered as "normal". With our methodology, we consider that the reference is the link between employment and mortality in the average population, and this sheds a better light on the situation of disadvantaged social groups.

The resulting additional work capacities of managers/professionals and blue-collar workers for year 2004 are shown on Figure 5 using 1977 to 2004 as successive reference years. This figure also replicates the previous computation for the general population, with 2004 rather than 2012 as the new year of interest. Understanding the results in figure 5 also requires looking at figure 6, which provides the apparent mortality-employment relationship for managers/professionals and blue collars in 2004, as well as the same relationship for the general population both in 2004 and 1977.

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5 - Mortality-based additional work capacities by social group in 2004
Men 55 to 69, using 1977 to 2004 as reference years.</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 7 - Mortality-based additional work capacities by social group in 2004
Men 55 +, using 1977 to 2004 as reference years.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

Results using 2004 as the reference year are instructive in that they reveal the current state of inequalities in terms of employment-mortality relationship. If the 2004 relationship is taken as a reference, the average additional work capacity is zero by construction, but it is as high as +5.1 years for managers and professionals whereas it is negative for blue collars, equal to -0.9 years. Managers and professionals work much less than they could do – according to the MW convention–, while blue-collar workers work slightly longer than what they should be asked to. Another way to look at these figures is to note that blue-collar workers aged 55 had a rate of employment of 70% in 2003-2005, while managers and professionals at the same age had a rate of employment of 87.9%. Over this time period, the former had a mortality rate of 0.0091 while the latter reached this mortality rate at only 65 or 66 years old, i.e. ages at which their employment rates were around 10%. This means that, if we consider 2004 managers and professionals as the reference group, blue-collar workers suffer from a 60 percentage-point “excess” work duration. Such considerations raise the question of differentiating the efforts in additional years of work that could be demanded to the different groups, in view of their current mortality levels.
In principle, the same message should remain valid when pushing the reference year backward in the past, with parallel increases of the indicators of additional employment capacity for managers/professionals and blue collars. Figure 5 suggests that this is not the case since the additional work capacities of both groups seem to be much closer to each other when 1977 is taken as the reference year – 7.6 years and 8.9 years, respectively. However, this paradoxical result is due to an artifact generated by the way the MW method is implemented, i.e. imposing an arbitrary upper limit at 69 for the age bracket over which counterfactual employment rates are simulated. The consequence of this arbitrary limit can be understood looking at figure 6: as the method is applied here, the difference between the upper 1977 schedule and the bottom schedule for managers and professionals in 2004 is integrated only until about half way through the figure. Abandoning such a convention, the MW approach would reveal a considerable amount of additional work capacity for managers and professionals on the right-hand side of the graph. The impact of removing the 69 year-old age constraint is expected to be much more modest for blue-collar workers since, when integrating for them within this limit, we go up to values of mortality rates for which employment rates were already low – typically below 20% –in 1977. This is confirmed by figure 7, equivalent to figure 5 after removing the 69 year-old limit for computing counterfactual employment rates: an almost complete parallelism is restored between the profiles of additional work capacity for managers/professionals, blue-collar workers and the average population.

Of course, this generates levels of additional work capacity for managers and professionals that look highly implausible – up to 13 years with 1977 as the reference year. It incidentally highlights a limit of the MW method. It generates estimates of additional work capacities that remain within a plausible range only thanks to the choice of an arbitrary upper age limit until which the methodology is considered valid.

*Mortality-based work capacity: what have we learnt?*

The MW approach based on mortality yields very high estimates of additional work capacity. This does not mean that all this capacity should actually be used. It only suggests that, on average, health does not appear to be a major limiting factor to the increase in labour force participation of older workers. However, one has to go beyond averages and take into account the very uneven levels of mortality rates across social groups. This point is clearly supported by the analysis carried out using the data on mortality by social status available for France. Moreover, as already underlined, mortality changes remains a very crude proxy of health changes. The next sections try to overcome this drawback.
## II - Employment rates and self-assessed health: implementing the Milligan-Wise approach

This section addresses the concern that mortality could be a poor proxy of health by considering a more direct measure of it, i.e. self-assessed health (SAH).

The data on SAH for France are provided by the ESPS (Enquête sur la Santé et la Protection Sociale) Survey. This survey was conducted yearly from 1992 to 1997 on a rather small sample of individuals (about 1,000 per year) and every other year from 1998 to 2010 on a larger sample (about 2,000 respondents per year). SAH is measured consistently since 1992 on a 0-10 scale and we define poor SAH as a dummy variable equal to 1 if reported SAH scores below 8 (which corresponds to the first quartile of the distribution both for men and women in 1992) and 0 otherwise.

### *Trends in SAH over time*

Figure 8 (resp. 9) shows the relationship between poor SAH and age, on the one hand, and mortality and age on the other hand for men (resp. women). Both figures provide evidence of an age gradient in SAH and mortality, although the relationship is less smooth for SAH because of small sample size. The proportion of men reporting poor SAH in 2010 is almost three times as large at age 75 as at 50 – 70% as compared to 25%. Age trends are less pronounced for women since the proportion reporting poor SAH is equivalent to men at age 75 – 70% – but is much higher at age 50 – 40%. This is consistent with the difference we observe across gender in the age gradient in mortality, the latter being larger for men than for women.

Yet, contrary to what we might expect – and to what is observed for mortality for men above 55 and for women above 70 –, we do not see any steady improvement in SAH over time whatever the age group we consider– see Figures 10 and 11 below. After a decline in the proportion of men and women reporting poor SAH in the first half of the 1990s, the trends revert at the beginning of the 2000s and SAH appears to deteriorate for both men and women, at least until the very last years of the decade.

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Figure 8 – Poor SAH and Mortality – Men, by age 1992-2010</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Figure 9 - Poor SAH and Mortality – Women, by age
1992-2010</figcaption></figure>

The lack of clear improvement in self-assessed health over time in our data raises the issue of potential declaration biases. There is evidence in the literature that, when asked about their health, individuals in various subgroups of the population use different threshold levels to assess it, although having the same “true” health level. This gives rise to reporting heterogeneity which varies according to the type of health outcome that is considered (Tubeuf et al., 2008). As regards SAH, low-income and low-education individuals tend to over-report it (Bago d'Uva et al., 2011; Etilé and Milcent, 2006; Johnston et al., 2009), while women tend to under-report it as compared to men (Bagod'Uva et al., 2008). As regards age, Lindeboom and van Doorslaer (2004) find that older adults are more inclined than younger ones to report good health for a given health status. If this happens to be the case in our data, the age-gradient evidenced in Figures 8 and 9 must be considered as a lower bound since it is negatively affected by this declaration bias. However, in order for declaration biases to account for the lack of improvement in SAH over time, it would have to be the case that, within age groups, individuals tend to under-report their health status to a larger extent than they used to in the past. This may be the case if, as health systems become more efficient, individuals raise their health expectations. However, to our knowledge, there is no evidence of such trend in the literature.

A competing explanation of why time trends in poor SAH do not look more downward sloping may be that they are quite heterogeneous across social groups, with health getting better for some groups while it may have worsened for others.
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Figure 11 - Poor SAH by age group across time – Women
1992-2010</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

Trends in SAH by education

One of the most obvious social classification to look at is the one based on education. This can be done using the ESPS Survey which contains information on educational levels grouped into 5 categories until 2006 and into 8 and 9 groups in 2008 and 2010, respectively.

In order to compute meaningful changes in SAH by education level over time, we need to take into account the upward shift that has taken place in the educational composition of the population. One of the consequences of this shift is that low-educated workers are more selected in recent years than they were in the past. To account for this change, we first compute the distribution of years of education by cohort and gender – see Figures 12 and 13 for men and women, respectively; the distribution for the whole population is shown on Appendix Figure A1.
<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>Figure 13 - Distribution of years of education completed by cohort - Women (year each cohort attained age 50)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

As can be seen on Figure 12, the proportion of men having completed at least some higher education increased substantially between the cohorts who reached 50 in 1960 and in 2010. The same goes for the proportion with upper secondary education and for those with lower secondary education. In contrast, the share of men with only primary education has sharply declined. Those who never attended school represent a small share of the cohort who reached 50 in 2010 but it was already low for the 1960 cohort. Similar trends are observed for women – see Figure 13 – although the proportion that attains higher education in the 2010 cohort remains slightly lower than for men.

As a second step, we sort individuals by education in each age-year cell with random ordering of individuals within each level and define four education quartiles. Over the 40 years considered here, the educational level of the median male and female increased from primary to lower secondary education. The first quartile did the same while the third one moved from lower secondary education to upper secondary education.

The proportion of individuals reporting poor SAH is then computed for each single age over 50-75 in each education quartile and eventually aggregated over two time periods: 1992-1998 and 2000-2010.
<figure><img src="image_16.png" /><figcaption>Figure 15 - Poor SAH by education quartile- Women
1992-2010</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

As evidenced in Figures 14 and 15, higher-educated men and women are on average in better health than their low-educated counterparts. This is particularly true for both men and women in the fourth quartile of the education distribution. However, we find no evidence of a substantial improvement in SAH over time except at very old ages – for men in the upper half of the education distribution and for women in the first and third quartiles. This result has to be interpreted with caution though since individuals in very bad health above 70 years old are likely to be underrepresented in the ESPS survey if they are hosted in specialized institutions since the latter are not included in the sample. If the proportion of unhealthy older people in such institutions has increased over time, the group of older individuals in the
ESPS survey is increasingly selected in terms of health, which may account for the trend observed in our data at very old ages.

Overall, we do not see very different trends in health conditions over time within age and education groups. So, the lack of steady improvement in self-assessed health observed in the French data cannot be accounted for by the fact that health conditions would improve for some groups of individuals while worsening for others, at least when these groups are defined on the basis of education.

### Additional work capacity: the Milligan-Wise approach based on SAH

We repeat the analysis carried out for employment rates and mortality using SAH. As for mortality, we do so for men only since the strong increase in female labor force participation would generate some confusion in the interpretation of the results. To reduce the noise in the data, we average the information on SAH over two years when it is available yearly, so that what is indicated as 1992 is actually computed as the average over 1992 and 1993. In addition, we linearly adjust the age profiles of self-assessed health. The corresponding employment-health profiles are presented in Figure 16.

We graph employment rates as a function of the proportion of individuals reporting poor SAH for three different years: 1992, 2000 and 2010. For given shares of men in poor health, employment rates decreased substantially between 1992 and 2000, before re-increasing sharply in the 2000s. Whatever the share of men reporting poor SAH, employment rates are higher in 2010 than in 2000 and in a number of cases, they are even higher than in 1992.

This suggests that the additional work capacity of men aged 55 to 69 as measured in 2010 is likely to be very small if not negative for a large number of years. This is what is evidenced on Figure 17.

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>Figure 16 - Employment vs Poor SAH - Men</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>Figure 17 - SAH-based additional work capacity for men 55-69 in 2010 using 1992 to 2010 as reference years</figcaption></figure>

According to the reference year, the additional employment capacity as measured in 2010 varies between 0 and -3.6 years. The only reference year for which it is positive is 2008 and, even in this case, it amounts to less than 1 year. These results are due to the fact that over the 1992-2010 period, employment rates varied very little and that the proportion of men reporting poor SAH first decreased before increasing again in the second half of the period – see Figure 10. For some age groups, it is even higher at the end than at the beginning of the period. Given such trends, there cannot be, by construction, any positive additional work capacity as measured in 2010.

This result is in sharp contrast with what we obtained when using mortality as a proxy of health. As measured in 2012, the mortality-based additional work capacity varied between 0 and +3.2 years according to the choice of the reference year in the 1992-2012 range. This gap in estimates with the SAH-based additional work capacity is due to the diverging trends in mortality and SAH over the period: while death rates have steadily decreased, SAH reported by men first improved before deteriorating again. One explanation for these differences in trends is that mortality and SAH do not capture the same thing. Mortality is actually a very peculiar measure of health. It captures the fact that individuals are still living, rather than dead – which is, of course, positive! –, but it does not take at all into account that individuals may be living in poor health conditions. Recent work by Sieurin *et al.* (2011) suggests that, in France, male life expectancy at 50 increased by about 22% between 1999 and 2008, whereas life expectancy without functional limitations increased by only 0.6% over the same period. When decomposing this trend for various types of limitations, they find that although life expectancy without physical functional limitations increased over time for men aged 50, their life expectancy without sensory and cognitive limitations actually decreased (by 3 to 8%). If SAH reported by men partly reflects these limitations, it is no surprise that its trend might substantially differ from that of mortality.

Overall, the results presented in Sections 2 and 3 suggest that one has to be very cautious when considering our estimates of additional work capacity. Their magnitude much depends indeed on the reference year that is chosen but, more importantly, their sign reverts when considering SAH rather than mortality as the relevant measure of health because the time trends in both variables do diverge. To overcome the problems raised by comparing different time periods, the Cutler *et al.* method, used in the next section, relies on comparisons across age groups rather than over time.
### III - Simulating employment rates at older ages: the Cutler et al. (2013) approach

#### The method

The method proposed by Cutler et al. (2013) to estimate the employment capacity consists in two steps. They first estimate individual labor force participation as a function of health for individuals in a younger age group (57-61) and then use the estimated coefficients to simulate what labor force participation would be for an older age group (62-64) if the health-participation relationship remained stable across ages. The advantage of this method is that it does not require comparing labor market outcomes and health at different points in time. The model is estimated for one age group at one period and is used to simulate the contemporaneous work capacity of another age group. The key assumption underlying the method is that the impact of health on individuals' working capacity is the same in the various age groups.

In what follows we apply the Cutler et al. method to employment rates rather than labor force participation. We estimate employment rates separately for men and women in the 51-54 year-old group as a function of education, marital status, the type of job (employee, civil servant, self-employed) and an indicator of health. We then simulate employment rates for men and women and by education level separately in the 55-59, 60-64, 65-69 and 70+ age groups. Of course, the ideal methodology would require estimating separate regressions by education level. Unfortunately, we do not have enough observations in our data to do so.

#### The data

The data we use come from the French section of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. SHARE is a panel database containing individual information on health, socio-economic status and social and family networks for more than 85,000 individuals aged 50 and over in 19 European countries. The sample size for France is around 3,000 households per wave. The survey was carried out in 2004, 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2013. We pool all available waves except SHARELIFE (wave 3) which has data on individuals' life histories.

Our main health index is the same as in Behaghel et al. (2014). Its computation follows the methodology developed by Poterba, Venti and Wise (2010, PVW) using the American Health and Retirement Survey data. The authors assume that latent health is revealed by responses to the long list of questions asked in the survey relative to health status and changes in health status. The PVW health index is then defined as the first principal component of these selected health measures. It is a weighted average of the health indicators with weights chosen to maximize the proportion of the variance of the individual health index that can be explained by this first principal component. This methodology has been replicated on the 25 health questions of the SHARE questionnaire. Details on the selected questions and the weights are provided in Behaghel et al. (2014). The index is decomposed in percentiles with percentile 1 corresponding to the worst health status and percentile 100 to the best. Unsurprisingly, the PVW index decreases with age – see Figure 18. It is also lower for women than for men at all ages except above 93, which is consistent with widespread evidence in the literature according to which women report worse health than men do even if they have longer life expectancies – see Case and Paxson (2005).

As robustness checks, we consider alternative health measures. The first set includes self-assessed health and the subset of variables contained in the PVW index which capture the lack of personal autonomy suffered by individuals. Self-assessed health is captured by a dummy variable equal to 1 if individuals report that their health is either fair or poor and 0 if they report that it is excellent, very good or good. We also include dummy variables for any
difficulty walking, limitations in the activities of daily living<fnref n="1" /> and any limitation in instrumental activities of daily living.<fnref n="2" /> On the graphs, all values are averaged over the four waves of SHARE that we use. Figures A2 and A3 in the Appendix report age gradients for these variables.

In a third model, we include a subset of health indicators corresponding to the most severe conditions (heart problems, high blood pressure, stroke, diabetes, lung disease and cancer) as well as arthritis to the extent that it is highly incapacitating with respect to employment. The age gradients for these variables are provided in Figures A4 and A5 for men and women, respectively.

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /><figcaption>Figure 18 – PVW Synthetic Health Index, by age and gender
Average values over 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2013</figcaption></figure>

## Estimating work capacity

Results from linear regressions of employment rates on the PVW health index and our set of control variables are presented in Table 1 below.

As expected, the PVW health index is positively correlated with employment rates for both men and women, suggesting that individuals in better health conditions have a higher probability of being in employment. Consistent with the evidence in the literature, we also find that lower educated individuals are less likely to be in employment: the effect is significant for both men and women with no diploma or only primary school, and for men with at most lower secondary education. Other control variables are found to have a differential impact on genders: civil-servant males have a higher probability to be in employment than employees, whereas the effect is not significant for females. In contrast, in the 51-54 year-old group considered here, married women are more likely to be employed than non-married ones, which is not the case for men.

<footnote n="1">¹ Limitations in the activities of daily living refer to people who need the help of others to address personal care needs, such as eating, bathing, dressing or getting around inside their home</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² Limitations in instrumental activities of daily living refer to people who need the help of other persons in handling routine needs, such as everyday household chores, doing necessary business, shopping, or getting around for other purposes.</footnote>
Following the Cutler *et al.* (2013) methodology, we use the coefficients estimated in Table 1 to simulate employment rates for men and women in older age groups. The corresponding results are shown in Table 2.

These estimates yield large additional work capacities on average. Considering individuals aged 55-59, who are the most comparable to those on whom employment rates are estimated – who are aged 51-54 – work capacity ranges between 9% and 19% for men. It increases with the level of education except for the most educated group – those with high-school diploma or more – whose actual employment rate is already quite high (about 80%). This is consistent with the fact that, although low-educated workers exit the labor force before highly-educated ones, they tend to be in worse health, thus having lower predicted employment rates. As regards women of the same age, their additional work capacity is much lower since they work even more than men in that age group. For women with no diploma or only primary education, it is about 3%, even slightly negative for those with lower secondary education and no more than 12% for those with higher secondary education. This suggests that, in the 55-59 year-old group, there is not much room for maneuver to increase employment rates of females.

<table><caption>Table 1 – Employment rates and the PVW Health Index
Men and Women aged 51-54</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: Employment rate</th><th>Men</th><th>Women</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Constant</td><td>0.567***<br>(0.052)</td><td>0.553***<br>(0.042)</td></tr><tr><td>PVW synthetic health index</td><td>0.004***<br>(0.001)</td><td>0.004***<br>(0.000)</td></tr><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>-0.256***<br>(0.041)</td><td>-0.109***<br>(0.039)</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>-0.230***<br>(0.060)</td><td>-0.008<br>(0.042)</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>-0.033<br>(0.032)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.029)</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>Ref</td><td>Ref</td></tr><tr><td>Employee</td><td>Ref</td><td>Ref</td></tr><tr><td>Civil servant</td><td>0.092***<br>(0.032)</td><td>0.016<br>(0.029)</td></tr><tr><td>Self-Employed</td><td>0.061<br>(0.041)</td><td>0.056<br>(0.044)</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>0.033<br>(0.030)</td><td>0.092***<br>(0.026)</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>713</td><td>834</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.194</td><td>0.135</td></tr></tbody></table>

Note: standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

The estimated work capacities are much larger in the 60-64 year-old group for both men and women, ranging from 46 to 69% for the former and 49 to 65% for the latter. This is due to the fact that predicted employment rates are close to those of the 55-59 age group whereas actual employment rates precipitate: they go down to no more than 30% for men and 26% for women. This is no surprise given that, during most of the period we consider here (2004-
2013), legal retirement age was 60 in France, thus generating a spike in exit rates from employment at this age. The results presented in this table suggest that if health were the only limitation to the employment of senior workers, both men and women could work much more than they actually do in the 60-65 age group.

<table><caption>Table 2 – Work capacity by education
Men and Women aged 55 to 70+</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="3">% of individuals in employment</th><th colspan="6">Age 55-59</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>49.43%</td><td>58.93%</td><td>9.50%</td><td>65.99%</td><td>69.07%</td><td>3.08%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>65.06%</td><td>65.67%</td><td>0.61%</td><td>82.61%</td><td>82.41%</td><td>-0.20%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>65.54%</td><td>84.71%</td><td>19.17%</td><td>70.80%</td><td>82.92%</td><td>12.12%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>79.50%</td><td>92.53%</td><td>13.04%</td><td>75.70%</td><td>85.93%</td><td>10.23%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 60-64</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>9.23%</td><td>58.61%</td><td>49.39%</td><td>18.47%</td><td>67.86%</td><td>49.39%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>18.18%</td><td>65.09%</td><td>46.91%</td><td>17.71%</td><td>82.87%</td><td>65.16%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>13.43%</td><td>83.37%</td><td>69.94%</td><td>19.46%</td><td>81.96%</td><td>62.51%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>30.10%</td><td>91.19%</td><td>61.09%</td><td>26.30%</td><td>84.75%</td><td>58.45%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 65-69</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>2.42%</td><td>57.47%</td><td>55.06%</td><td>2.05%</td><td>67.67%</td><td>65.62%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>4.26%</td><td>65.33%</td><td>61.07%</td><td>2.00%</td><td>81.08%</td><td>79.08%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>1.39%</td><td>82.30%</td><td>80.92%</td><td>0.87%</td><td>80.60%</td><td>79.73%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>6.33%</td><td>88.11%</td><td>81.78%</td><td>2.69%</td><td>82.24%</td><td>79.55%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age +70</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>0.08%</td><td>51.62%</td><td>51.53%</td><td>0.11%</td><td>61.32%</td><td>61.21%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>0.74%</td><td>54.56%</td><td>53.83%</td><td>0.72%</td><td>72.50%</td><td>71.78%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>0.71%</td><td>77.09%</td><td>76.38%</td><td>1.27%</td><td>74.77%</td><td>73.50%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>0.58%</td><td>83.07%</td><td>82.50%</td><td>1.07%</td><td>77.66%</td><td>76.59%</td></tr></tbody></table>

These results are robust to using alternative health measures. The first set we consider includes poor SAH, as well as any limitation in ADL or IADL and difficulty walking. As evidenced in Appendix Table A1, all these variables reduce the probability of being in employment with the effect being significant at least at the 5% level – except for IADL for women which is significant only at the 10% level. Using this specification to simulate additional work capacity, the magnitude we get is very close to that in Table 2, although marginally larger – see Table A2 –: it ranges from 5% to 20% (resp. 52% to 71%) for men aged 55-59 (resp. 60-64) and from 5% to 12% (resp. 72% to 87%) for women aged 55-59 (resp. 60-64).

When using our second set of alternative health measures based on the most severe health conditions and arthritis, the impact on employment rates gets more variable across genders – see Table A3: women are negatively affected by strokes, diabetes, arthritis and cancer, whereas men's employment rates are reduced by strokes, lung problems and arthritis only. When simulating additional work capacity on this basis, the results are very similar to those in Table 2 – see Table A4.
As evidenced in Table 2 – and confirmed in Tables A2 and A4 – the magnitude of the work capacity estimated with the Cutler *et al.* method gets substantially larger as age increases. It reaches 61% to 81% for men in the 65-69 age group – according to their educational level – and 65 to 79% for women before declining slightly at older ages – but still ranging between 50% and 80% for both men and women. These figures are extremely high. Taken at face value, they suggest that health is in no way a limiting factor to increasing retirement ages for both men and women in France, whatever their educational attainment. If poorer health at old ages were the only limitation to employment, employment rates could be much higher than they actually are, even for low-skilled (low-educated) workers who have often spent a large part of their career in jobs characterized by high physical strain.

*The issues raised by the Cutler et al. approach*

The very high values of work capacity generated by our estimates, in particular at old ages – above 70 – raise a number of issues about the method. It indeed relies on two strong assumptions.

The first one is that a given health problem has exactly the same impact on the probability of being in employment (or the work capacity) at all ages. This assumption does not necessarily hold for a couple of reasons. Despite the large number of questions in SHARE, the health indicators that we have are quite crude so that we are likely to mismeasure “true health”. In particular, a given reported health symptom (say arthritis) may correspond to a better or worse “true” health status according to the intensity of the pain it generates. If this intensity tends to grow over age, the same symptom will not affect the probability of being in employment in the same way across ages. A second issue has to do with the fact that the impact of a given “true” health problem may affect productivity in a different way across ages. Older workers may, in particular, be less versatile than younger ones thereby having more difficulty to develop strategies that would allow them to circumvent a temporary physical handicap. If this is the case, the direct impact of health on the probability of being in employment is not constant across ages. More specifically, if given health conditions, as we measure them, have a more negative impact on older workers than on younger ones, this will generate an upward bias in our estimates of additional work capacity, with this bias increasing as the individuals we consider get older.

Of course, the simplifying assumption according to which a given health problem has exactly the same impact on the probability of being in employment (or the work capacity) at various ages is more or less acceptable according to the age gap between the group on which the estimates are run and the group for which the simulations are made. If both groups are very similar in terms of age, the assumption may be considered reasonable. If, in contrast, they are very far apart, it is unlikely to hold. This suggests that the results we obtain for individuals aged 70 and above (or even 65-69) using estimates run on individuals aged 50-54 should be interpreted with great caution.

The second assumption underlying the Cutler *et al.* method is that there is no reverse causality from employment to health. If, in contrast, being in employment affects health and this effect varies across ages, the estimates run on the 50-54 year-old group are biased and the simulations carried out on the older age groups yield a biased measure of the work capacity at old ages. In particular, the latter will be overestimated if work negatively affects health at old ages. The literature on the health effects of retirement suggests that this may be the case. Most papers indeed find a positive impact of retirement on physical health, whereas the results are more mixed for mental health, and even negative for cognitive outcomes – see Bassanini and Caroli (2014). This reverse causality effect is hard to take into account since it would require instrumenting health levels. Nonetheless, it cannot be ruled out and calls, here again, for caution in interpreting the results. The same remark applies to the MW methodology as well.
Conclusion

In the first part of this paper, we have estimated additional work capacity using the standard MW method where health is proxied by mortality. According to this approach, health does not emerge as a key limiting factor to higher employment rates in the 55-69 age groups. This result comes as no surprise. As recalled in the introduction, the fact that gains in life expectancy are good news that provide a natural solution to pension problems has been regularly underlined in the French pension debate over the last two decades. It paved the way to reforms whose expected effects on retirement ages are not marginal at all. The MW method just confirms how large the window potentially opened by these gains is. Yet, this mortality-based approach already required one first qualification, i.e. the need to incorporate socio-economic mortality differentials. Accounting for these differentials did not fully revert the message that had been obtained on average: there remains some additional work capacity in the MW sense of the term for all social groups. This work capacity nevertheless displays strong variations across social groups: depending upon the reference that is chosen, the gap ranges from 4 to 6 years between the two extreme cases of blue collars and managers/professionals.

When considering SAH, which is a less crude proxy of health than mortality, our estimates of additional work capacity are substantially modified. As measured in 2010, the SAH-based capacity indeed varies between 0 and -3.6 years, thus being consistently negative. The gap in estimates between mortality and SAH-based capacity is due to the diverging trends in both variables over the period. A natural explanation for this is that mortality and SAH do not capture the same thing. As a matter of fact, the mortality proxy does not take into account that individuals may still be alive although in poor health conditions.

This result is not sufficient to invalidate the idea that the financial equilibrium of pension systems can be reached by increasing retirement ages. Its significance is indeed limited by the fact that it has been established over a relatively short time period over which employment rates have been re-increasing and SAH has had a U-shaped profile without any clear long-run trend. What would be needed is an assessment of this trend over a longer time period, typically from the mid-70s onward. But, even if such an exercise should confirm a total lack of health improvement over the long run, the MW approach would still predict a current positive additional work capacity. This would indeed mirror the global decline of senior employment rates that has been observed since the 70s, and this precisely corresponds to the kind of increases expected from pension reforms that have already been implemented. It would however mean that these reforms have come relatively close to the health barrier we try to measure here and that there is not much scope for going further than what these reforms have already planned to do.

Comparing health (or mortality) at different time periods, as required by the MW approach, raises a number of methodological problems, in particular the dependence of the results on the reference year we choose. To circumvent such problems, the last part of the chapter uses the Cutler et al. method that relies on comparisons across age groups rather than over time. Here again, the corresponding estimates yield large additional work capacities on average, with significant variation across social groups, now identified through education levels: low-educated individuals tend to be in worst health at older ages so that their predicted employment rates are also lower.

Overall, both the mortality-based MW approach and the CMR method predict high average levels of additional work capacity. However, the picture becomes somewhat different when disaggregating the results by social groups or education. So, our results emphasize the idea that policies that would aim at activating any estimated additional work capacity should take into account, when possible, the heterogeneity of health conditions in the population.

Moreover, as mentioned in the introduction to this chapter, additional work capacity cannot be a general indicator of how much more seniors *should* work. The methods used here indeed leave aside many factors that may play a role in determining the “optimal” employment rate of older workers. The fact that leisure has a positive value is the first of
these factors: individual and collective choices regarding retirement ages are the result of a tradeoff between income and leisure. Workers that are fully employable and in perfectly good health may very rationally choose to allocate a large share of their “work capacity” to retirement rather than to work if they consider that they can afford to do so. Next and last, even if we restrict the question to the assessment of work capacity *stricto sensu*, without any message concerning how far it must be exploited, there remains the fact that health is only one of the factors that limit this work capacity. The economic literature has shown that senior workers suffer from low levels of labor demand, in particular when they are low skilled. This may be caused by health limitations if they have spent most of their careers in high-strain jobs, but it may also be the consequence of skill obsolescence (Aubert et al, 2006). Recent prospective studies have highlighted the fact that many jobs are likely to be affected by automation in the near future (Frey and Osborne, 2013). Tasks that escape automation include creative intelligence, social intelligence and perception and manipulation tasks. It is difficult to foresee the impact of age on the ability to carry out such tasks; yet it is not implausible that labor demand continues to shift towards young and middle ages, thus increasing the difficulty for older workers to stay in employment.
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Appendix

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /><figcaption>Figure A2-Poor SAH, Limitations in ADL and IADL, difficulty walking
Men - Average values over 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2013</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_23.png" /><figcaption>Figure A4 – Most severe health conditions and arthritis
Men - Average values over 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2013</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_25.png" /><figcaption>Figure A5 - Most severe health conditions and arthritis
Women - Average values over 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2013</figcaption></figure>
<table><caption>Table A1– Employment rates and Poor SAH, ADL, IADL and difficulty walking
Men and Women aged 51-54</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: Employment rate</th><th>Men</th><th>Women</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Constant</td><td>0.908***<br>(0.035)</td><td>0.851***<br>(0.031)</td></tr><tr><td>Poor SAH</td><td>-0.169***<br>(0.034)</td><td>-0.115***<br>(0.031)</td></tr><tr><td>Any IADL</td><td>-0.236***<br>(0.079)</td><td>-0.103*<br>(0.057)</td></tr><tr><td>Any ADL</td><td>-0.163***<br>(0.048)</td><td>-0.164***<br>(0.045)</td></tr><tr><td>Difficultywalking</td><td>-0.202**<br>(0.081)</td><td>-0.385***<br>(0.070)</td></tr><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>-0.239***<br>(0.040)</td><td>-0.086**<br>(0.038)</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>-0.211***<br>(0.058)</td><td>-0.017<br>(0.040)</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>-0.033<br>(0.030)</td><td>-0.005<br>(0.028)</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>Ref<br>-</td><td>Ref<br>-</td></tr><tr><td>Employee</td><td>Ref<br>-</td><td>Ref<br>-</td></tr><tr><td>Civil servant</td><td>0.083***<br>(0.031)</td><td>0.015<br>(0.027)</td></tr><tr><td>Self-Employed</td><td>0.068*<br>(0.039)</td><td>0.083**<br>(0.042)</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>0.034<br>(0.029)</td><td>0.086***<br>(0.025)</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>726</td><td>852</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.223</td><td>185</td></tr></tbody></table>

Note: standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
<table><caption>Table A2 – Work capacity by education - Men and Women aged 55 to 70+
Based on estimates in Table A1</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="3">% of individuals in employment</th><th colspan="6">Age 55-59</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>49.43%</td><td>60.20%</td><td>10.77%</td><td>65.99%</td><td>71.90%</td><td>5.90%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>65.06%</td><td>70.32%</td><td>5.26%</td><td>82.61%</td><td>87.21%</td><td>4.61%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>65.54%</td><td>86.39%</td><td>20.85%</td><td>70.80%</td><td>83.64%</td><td>12.84%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>79.50%</td><td>93.79%</td><td>14.29%</td><td>75.70%</td><td>88.63%</td><td>12.93%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 60-64</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>9.23%</td><td>61.64%</td><td>52.41%</td><td>18.47%</td><td>72.11%</td><td>53.64%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>18.18%</td><td>70.29%</td><td>52.10%</td><td>17.71%</td><td>86.05%</td><td>68.34%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>13.43%</td><td>85.41%</td><td>71.97%</td><td>19.46%</td><td>83.29%</td><td>63.84%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>30.10%</td><td>91.77%</td><td>61.67%</td><td>26.30%</td><td>87.28%</td><td>60.98%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 65-69</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>2.42%</td><td>61.31%</td><td>58.89%</td><td>2.05%</td><td>71.49%</td><td>69.44%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>4.26%</td><td>69.04%</td><td>64.79%</td><td>2.00%</td><td>80.83%</td><td>78.83%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>1.39%</td><td>85.03%</td><td>83.64%</td><td>0.87%</td><td>82.85%</td><td>81.98%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>6.33%</td><td>90.98%</td><td>84.66%</td><td>2.69%</td><td>84.63%</td><td>81.94%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age +70</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>0.08%</td><td>48.82%</td><td>48.74%</td><td>0.11%</td><td>57.50%</td><td>57.38%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>0.74%</td><td>53.44%</td><td>52.70%</td><td>0.72%</td><td>71.19%</td><td>70.48%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>0.71%</td><td>76.98%</td><td>76.27%</td><td>1.27%</td><td>73.10%</td><td>71.82%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>0.58%</td><td>84.45%</td><td>83.87%</td><td>1.07%</td><td>78.76%</td><td>77.69%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><caption>Table A3 – Employment rates and most serious health conditions
Men and Women aged 51-54</caption><thead><tr><th>Dependent variable: Employment rate</th><th>Men</th><th>Women</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Constant</td><td>0.899***<br>(0.037)</td><td>0.849***<br>(0.032)</td></tr><tr><td>Heartproblem</td><td>-0.089<br>(0.065)</td><td>-0.087<br>(0.083)</td></tr><tr><td>Blood pressure</td><td>-0.023<br>(0.038)</td><td>-0.051<br>(0.034)</td></tr><tr><td>Stroke</td><td>-0.322**<br>(0.128)</td><td>-0.275***<br>(0.100)</td></tr><tr><td>Diabete</td><td>-0.014<br>(0.057)</td><td>-0.213***<br>(0.069)</td></tr><tr><td>Lung problem</td><td>-0.233***<br>(0.088)</td><td>-0.026<br>(0.073)</td></tr><tr><td>Arthritis</td><td>-0.088**<br>(0.039)</td><td>-0.066**<br>(0.030)</td></tr><tr><td>Cancer</td><td>-0.152<br>(0.098)</td><td>-0.199***<br>(0.059)</td></tr><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>-0.299***<br>(0.042)</td><td>-0.167***<br>(0.039)</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>-0.268***<br>(0.061)</td><td>-0.044<br>(0.042)</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>-0.064**<br>(0.032)</td><td>-0.019<br>(0.029)</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>Ref</td><td>Ref</td></tr><tr><td>Employee</td><td>Ref</td><td>Ref</td></tr><tr><td>Civil servant</td><td>0.090***<br>(0.033)</td><td>0.029<br>(0.029)</td></tr><tr><td>Self-Employed</td><td>0.080*<br>(0.041)</td><td>0.065<br>(0.045)</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>0.037<br>(0.030)</td><td>0.091***<br>(0.026)</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>725</td><td>852</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.15</td><td>0.104</td></tr></tbody></table>

Note: standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
<table><caption>Table A4 – Work capacity by education - Men and Women aged 55 to 70+
Based on estimates in Table A3</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="3">% of individuals in employment</th><th colspan="6">Age 55-59</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>49.43%</td><td>59.11%</td><td>9.68%</td><td>65.99%</td><td>67.29%</td><td>1.30%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>65.06%</td><td>65.62%</td><td>0.56%</td><td>82.61%</td><td>81.74%</td><td>-0.87%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>65.54%</td><td>84.57%</td><td>19.03%</td><td>70.80%</td><td>83.93%</td><td>13.13%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>79.50%</td><td>94.35%</td><td>14.86%</td><td>75.70%</td><td>87.12%</td><td>11.42%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 60-64</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>9.23%</td><td>58.57%</td><td>49.34%</td><td>18.47%</td><td>65.31%</td><td>46.84%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>18.18%</td><td>64.58%</td><td>46.39%</td><td>17.71%</td><td>79.39%</td><td>61.68%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>13.43%</td><td>82.38%</td><td>68.94%</td><td>19.46%</td><td>83.05%</td><td>63.59%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>30.10%</td><td>91.13%</td><td>61.03%</td><td>26.30%</td><td>85.80%</td><td>59.50%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age 65-69</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>2.42%</td><td>56.12%</td><td>53.71%</td><td>2.05%</td><td>64.01%</td><td>61.97%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>4.26%</td><td>63.10%</td><td>58.84%</td><td>2.00%</td><td>80.10%</td><td>78.10%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>1.39%</td><td>81.18%</td><td>79.80%</td><td>0.87%</td><td>82.12%</td><td>81.25%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>6.33%</td><td>89.16%</td><td>82.83%</td><td>2.69%</td><td>84.17%</td><td>81.48%</td></tr></tbody><thead><tr><th rowspan="3"></th><th colspan="6">Age +70</th></tr><tr><th colspan="3">Men</th><th colspan="3">Women</th></tr><tr><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th><th>Actual</th><th>Predicted</th><th>Estimated WC</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No diploma or primary school</td><td>0.08%</td><td>53.20%</td><td>53.12%</td><td>0.11%</td><td>60.98%</td><td>60.87%</td></tr><tr><td>Lower secondary education</td><td>0.74%</td><td>55.45%</td><td>54.72%</td><td>0.72%</td><td>74.84%</td><td>74.13%</td></tr><tr><td>Higher secondary education</td><td>0.71%</td><td>78.12%</td><td>77.41%</td><td>1.27%</td><td>77.31%</td><td>76.04%</td></tr><tr><td>High school diploma and above</td><td>0.58%</td><td>85.72%</td><td>85.15%</td><td>1.07%</td><td>81.14%</td><td>80.07%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td>G 9001</td><td>J. FAYOLLE et M. FLEURBAEY<br>Accumulation, profitabilité et endettement des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9002</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Détection et effets de la multicolinéarité dans les modèles linéaires ordinaires - Un prolongement de la réflexion de BELSLEY, KUH et WELSCH</td></tr><tr><td>G 9003</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Indexation des salaires : la rupture de 1983</td></tr><tr><td>G 9004</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br>Compétitivité, croissance et innovation de produit</td></tr><tr><td>G 9005</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Les conséquences de la désindexation. Analyse dans une maquette prix-salaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9101</td><td>Équipe AMADEUS<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Première partie - Présentation générale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9102</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Deuxième partie - Propriétés variantielles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9103</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br>Endogenous growth and product innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9104</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Troisième partie - Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international</td></tr><tr><td>G 9105</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Effets de demande et d'offre dans les résultats du commerce extérieur manufacturé de la France au cours des deux dernières décennies</td></tr><tr><td>G 9106</td><td>B. CREPON<br>Innovation, taille et concentration : causalités et dynamiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9107</td><td>B. AMABLE et D. GUELLEC<br>Un panorama des théories de la croissance endogène</td></tr><tr><td>G 9108</td><td>M. GLAUDE et M. MOUTARDIER<br>Une évaluation du coût direct de l'enfant de 1979 à 1989</td></tr><tr><td>G 9109</td><td>P. RALLE et alii<br>France - Allemagne : performances économiques comparées</td></tr><tr><td>G 9110</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Micro-DMS<br>NON PARU</td></tr><tr><td>G 9111</td><td>A. MAGNIER<br>Effets accélérateur et multiplicateur en France depuis 1970 : quelques résultats empiriques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9112</td><td>B. CREPON et G. DUREAU<br>Investissement en recherche-développement : analyse de causalités dans un modèle d'accélérateur généralisé</td></tr><tr><td>G 9113</td><td>J.L. BRILLET, H. ERKEL-ROUSSE, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>"France-Allemagne Couplées" - Deux économies vues par une maquette macro-économétrique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9201</td><td>W.J. ADAMS, B. CREPON, D. ENCAOUA<br>Choix technologiques et stratégies de dissuasion d'entrée</td></tr><tr><td>G 9202</td><td>J. OLIVEIRA-MARTINS, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9203</td><td>I. STAPIC<br>Les échanges internationaux de services de la France dans le cadre des négociations multilaterales du GATT<br>Juin 1992 (1ère version)<br>Novembre 1992 (version finale)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9204</td><td>P. SEVESTRE<br>L'économie sur données individuelles-temporelles. Une note introductive</td></tr><tr><td>G 9205</td><td>H. ERKEL-ROUSSE<br>Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international dans le modèle AMADEUS (réestimation 1992)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9206</td><td>N. GREENAN et D. GUELLEC<br>Coordination within the firm and endogenous growth</td></tr><tr><td>G 9207</td><td>A. MAGNIER et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Technology and trade: empirical evidences for the major five industrialized countries</td></tr><tr><td>G 9208</td><td>B. CREPON, E. DUGUET, D. ENCAOUA et P. MOHNEN<br>Cooperative, non cooperative R & D and optimal patent life</td></tr><tr><td>G 9209</td><td>B. CREPON et E. DUGUET<br>Research and development, competition and innovation: an application of pseudo maximum likelihood methods to Poisson models with heterogeneity</td></tr><tr><td>G 9301</td><td>J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Commerce international et concurrence impartie : développements récents et implications pour la politique commerciale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9302</td><td>Ch. CASES<br>Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature</td></tr><tr><td>G 9303</td><td>H. ERKEL-ROUSSE<br>Union économique et monétaire : le débat économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9304</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC / G. BROUSSAUDIER - L. MIOTTI<br>Innovation organisationnelle, dynamisme technologique et performances des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9305</td><td>P. JAILLARD<br>Le traité de Maastricht : présentation juridique et historique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9306</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Micro-DMS : présentation et propriétés</td></tr><tr><td>G 9307</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Micro-DMS - variantes : les tableaux</td></tr><tr><td>G 9308</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br>Les grands réseaux publics français dans une perspective européenne</td></tr><tr><td>G 9309</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE<br>Profitabilité de l'investissement productif et transmission des chocs financiers</td></tr><tr><td>G 9310</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br>Les théories sur la structure optimale du capital : quelques points de repère</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9311</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br>Les décisions de financement des entreprises françaises : une évaluation empirique des théories de la structure optimale du capital</td></tr><tr><td>G 9312</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE<br>Q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers</td></tr><tr><td>G 9313</td><td>Équipes Amadeus (INSEE), Banque de France, Métric (DP)<br>Presentation des propriétés des principaux modèles macroéconomiques du Service Public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9314</td><td>B. CREPON - E. DUGUET<br>Research & Development, competition and innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9315</td><td>B. DORMONT<br>Quelle est l'influence du coût du travail sur l'emploi ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9316</td><td>D. BLANCHET - C. BROUSSE<br>Deux études sur l'âge de la retraite</td></tr><tr><td>G 9317</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br>Répartition du travail dans une population hétérogène : deux notes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9318</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER - N. PONTY<br>AMADEUS - an annual macro-economic model for the medium and long term</td></tr><tr><td>G 9319</td><td>G. CETTE - Ph. CUNÉO - D. EYSSARTIER - J. GAUTIÉ<br>Les effets sur l'emploi d'un abaissement du coût du travail des jeunes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9401</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br>Les structures par âge importent-elles ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9402</td><td>J. GAUTIÉ<br>Le chômage des jeunes en France : problème de formation ou phénomène de file d'attente ?<br>Quelques éléments du débat</td></tr><tr><td>G 9403</td><td>P. QUIRION<br>Les déchets en France : éléments statistiques et économiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9404</td><td>D. LADIRAY - M. GRUN-REHOMME<br>Lissage par moyennes mobiles - Le problème des extrémités de série</td></tr><tr><td>G 9405</td><td>V. MAILLARD<br>Theorie et pratique de la correction des effets de jours ouvrables</td></tr><tr><td>G 9406</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br>La décision d'investir</td></tr><tr><td>G 9407</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br>Les apports de l'économie industrielle pour définir la stratégie économique de l'hôpital public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9408</td><td>L. BLOCH, J. BOURDIEU, B. COLIN-SEDILLOT, G. LONGUEVILLE<br>Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté</td></tr><tr><td>G 9409</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER, P. MAIRE<br>Impacts macro-économiques de mesures d'aide au logement - quelques éléments d'évaluation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9410</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br>Suivi conjoncturel de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9411</td><td>C. DEFEUILLEY - Ph. QUIRION<br>Les déchets d'emballages ménagers : une analyse économique des politiques française et allemande</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9412</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br>Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité<br>Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9413</td><td>B. DORMONT - M. PAUCHET<br>L'évaluation de l'élasticité emploi-salaire dépend-elle des structures de qualification ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9414</td><td>I. KABLA<br>Le Choix de breveter une invention</td></tr><tr><td>G 9501</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. SEDILLOT<br>Irreversible Investment and Uncertainty: When is there a Value of Waiting?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9502</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ<br>Imperfections du marché du crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9503</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Les transformations de la demande de travail par qualification en France<br>Une étude sur la période 1970-1993</td></tr><tr><td>G 9504</td><td>N. GREENAN<br>Technologie, changement organisationnel, qualifications et emploi : une étude empirique sur l'industrie manufacturière</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Persistence des hiérarchies sectorielles de salaires: un réexamen sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505<br>Bis</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br>Persistence of inter-industry wages differentials: a reexamination on matched worker-firm panel data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9506</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br>Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective<br>NON PARU - article sorti dans Économie et Prévision n° 122 (1996) - pages 95 à 113</td></tr><tr><td>G 9507</td><td>G. CETTE - S. MAHFOUZ<br>Le partage primaire du revenu<br>Constat descriptif sur longue période</td></tr><tr><td>G 9601</td><td>Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direction de la Prévision - Érasme - INSEE - OFCE<br>Structures et propriétés de cinq modèles macro-économiques français</td></tr><tr><td>G 9602</td><td>Rapport d'activité de la DESE de l'année 1995</td></tr><tr><td>G 9603</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - A. DRAZNIEKS<br>L'octroi de crédit aux PME : une analyse à partir d'informations bancaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9604</td><td>A. TOPIOL-BENSAÎD<br>Les implantations japonaises en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9605</td><td>P. GENIER - S. JACOBZONE<br>Comportements de prévention, consommation d'alcool et tabagie : peut-on parler d'une gestion globale du capital santé ?<br>Une modélisation microéconométrique empirique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9606</td><td>C. DOZ - F. LENGLART<br>Factor analysis and unobserved component models: an application to the study of French business surveys</td></tr><tr><td>G 9607</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br>La théorie coopérative de la firme</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>G 9608</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br/>Technological innovation and employment<br/>reallocation</td><td>G 9714</td><td>F. LEQUILLER<br/>Does the French Consumer Price Index Over-<br/>state Inflation?</td><td>G 9807</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études<br/>Synthèses Économiques - 1997</td><td>Bis</td><td>Une estimation de l'élasticité de l'emploi peu<br/>qualifié à son coût</td></tr><tr><td>G 9609</td><td>Ph. COUR - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>L'intégration asymétrique au sein du continent<br/>américain : un essai de modélisation</td><td>G 9715</td><td>X. BONNET<br/>Peut-on mettre en évidence les rigidités à la<br/>baisse des salaires nominaux ?<br/>Une étude sur quelques grands pays de l'OCDE</td><td>G 9808</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Can a Conservative Governor Conduct an Ac-<br/>comodative Monetary Policy?</td><td>G 9913</td><td>Division « Redistribution et Politiques Sociales »<br/>Le modèle de microsimulation dynamique<br/>DESTINIE</td></tr><tr><td>G 9610</td><td>S. DUCHENE - G. FORGEOT - A. JACQUOT<br/>Analyse des évolutions récentes de la producti-<br/>vité apparente du travail</td><td>G 9716</td><td>N. IUNG - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>Productivité de la recherche et rendements<br/>d'échelle dans le secteur pharmaceutique<br/>français</td><td>G 9809</td><td>X. BONNET - E. DUBOIS - L. FAUVET<br/>Asymétrie des inflations relatives et menus costs<br/>: tests sur l'inflation française</td><td>G 9914</td><td>E. DUGUET<br/>Macro-commandes SAS pour l'économie des<br/>panels et des variables qualitatives</td></tr><tr><td>G 9611</td><td>X. BONNET - S. MAHFOUZ<br/>The influence of different specifications of wages-<br/>prices spirals on the measure of the NAIRU: the<br/>case of France</td><td>G 9717</td><td>E. DUGUET - I. KABLA<br/>Appropriation strategy and the motivations to use<br/>the patent system in France - An econometric<br/>analysis at the firm level</td><td>G 9810</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>Sales and Advertising with Spillovers at the firm<br/>level: Estimation of a Dynamic Structural Model<br/>on Panel Data</td><td>G 9915</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Évolution des flux d'emplois en France entre<br/>1990 et 1996 : une étude empirique à partir du<br/>fichier des bénéfices réels normaux (BRN)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9612</td><td>PH. COUR - E. DUBOIS, S. MAHFOUZ,<br/>J. PISANI-FERRY<br/>The cost of fiscal retrenchment revisited: how<br/>strong is the evidence?</td><td>G 9718</td><td>L.P. PELÉ - P. RALLE<br/>Âge de la retraite : les aspects incitatifs du régime<br/>général</td><td>G 9811</td><td>J.P. BERTHIER<br/>Congestion urbaine : un modèle de trafic de<br/>pointe à courbe débit-vitesse et demande<br/>élastique</td><td>G 9916</td><td>J.Y. FOURNIER<br/>Extraction du cycle des affaires : la méthode de<br/>Baxter et King</td></tr><tr><td>G 9613</td><td>A. JACQUOT<br/>Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seule-<br/>ment conjoncturelles ?</td><td>G 9719</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique français-chinois,<br/>chinois-français</td><td>G 9812</td><td>C. PRIGENT<br/>La part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée : une<br/>approche macroéconomique</td><td>G 9917</td><td>B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ - J. MAIRESSÉ<br/>Estimating price cost margins, scale economies<br/>and workers' bargaining power at the firm level</td></tr><tr><td>G 9614</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique Français-Chinois</td><td>G 9720</td><td>M. HOUDEBINE - J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Mesurer l'influence de la fiscalité sur la locali-<br/>sation des entreprises</td><td>G 9813</td><td>A.Th. AERTS<br/>L'évolution de la part des salaires dans la valeur<br/>ajoutée en France reflète-t-elle les évolutions<br/>individuelles sur la période 1979-1994 ?</td><td>G 9918</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA - Ph. LAGARDE<br/>Productivity of hours in the aggregate production<br/>function: an evaluation on a panel of French firms<br/>from the manufacturing sector</td></tr><tr><td>G 9701</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>La taxe professionnelle : éléments de cadrage<br/>économique</td><td>G 9721</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire<br/>A revue de la littérature</td><td>G 9814</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires</td><td>G 9919</td><td>S. AUDRIC - P. GIVORD - C. PROST<br/>Évolution de l'emploi et des coûts par quali-<br/>fication entre 1982 et 1996</td></tr><tr><td>G 9702</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Transition et stabilité politique d'un système<br/>redistributif</td><td>G 9722</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - L. BRIOT<br/>Les données comptables d'entreprises<br/>Le système intermédiaire d'entreprises<br/>Passage des données individuelles aux données<br/>sectorielles</td><td>G 9901</td><td>S. DUCHÈNE - A. JACQUOT<br/>Une croissance plus riche en emplois depuis le<br/>début de la décennie ? Une analyse en compa-<br/>raison internationale</td><td>G 2000/01</td><td>R. MAHIEU<br/>Les déterminants des dépenses de santé : une<br/>approche macroéconomique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9703</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Train or Pay: Does it Reduce Inequalities to En-<br/>courage Firms to Train their Workers?</td><td>G 9723</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - J.E. CHAPRON<br/>Using Business Accounts for Compiling National<br/>Accounts: the French Experience</td><td>G 9902</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Modélisation des carrières dans Destinie</td><td>G 2000/02</td><td>C. ALLARD-PRIGENT - H. GUILMEAU -<br/>A. QUINET<br/>The real exchange rate as the relative price of<br/>nontrables in terms of tradables: theoretical<br/>investigation and empirical study on French data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9704</td><td>P. GENIER<br/>Deux contributions sur dépendance et équité</td><td>G 9724</td><td>P. AUGERAUD<br/>Les comptes d'entreprise par activités - Le pas-<br/>sage aux comptes - De la comptabilité<br/>d'entreprise à la comptabilité nationale - A<br/>paraitre</td><td>G 9903</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Évolution de la dispersion des salaires : un essai<br/>de prospective par microsimulation</td><td>G 2000/03</td><td>J.-Y. FOURNIER<br/>L'approximation du filtre passe-bande proposée<br/>par Christiano et Fitzgerald</td></tr><tr><td>G 9705</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>R & D Investment, Patent Life and Patent Value<br/>An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level</td><td>G 9801</td><td>H. MICHAUDON - C. PRIGENT<br/>Présentation du modèle AMADEUS</td><td>G 9904</td><td>B. CREPON - N. IUNG<br/>Innovation, emploi et performances</td><td>G 2000/04</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1999</td></tr><tr><td>G 9706</td><td>M. HOUDEBINE - A. TOPIOL-BENSAÏD<br/>Les entreprises internationales en France : une<br/>analyse à partir de données individuelles</td><td>G 9802</td><td>J. ACCARDO<br/>Une étude de comptabilité générationnelle<br/>pour la France en 1996</td><td>G 9905</td><td>B. CREPON - Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Wages inequalities in France 1969-1992<br/>An application of quantile regression techniques</td><td>G 2000/05</td><td>B. CREPON - F. ROSENWALD<br/>Investissement et contraintes de financement : le<br/>poids du cycle<br/>Une estimation sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9707</td><td>M. HOUDEBINE<br/>Polarisation des activités et spécialisation des<br/>départements en France</td><td>G 9803</td><td>X. BONNET - S. DUCHÈNE<br/>Apports et limites de la modélisation<br/>« Real Business Cycles »</td><td>G 9906</td><td>C. BONNET - R. MAHIEU<br/>Microsimulation techniques applied to inter-<br/>generational transfers - Pensions in a dynamic<br/>framework: the case of France</td><td>G 2000/06</td><td>A. FLIPO<br/>Les comportements matrimoniaux de fait</td></tr><tr><td>G 9708</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. GREENAN<br/>Le biais technologique : une analyse sur données<br/>individuelles</td><td>G 9804</td><td>C. BARLET - C. DUGUET -<br/>D. ENCAOUA - J. PRADEL<br/>The Commercial Success of Innovations<br/>An econometric analysis at the firm level in<br/>French manufacturing</td><td>G 9907</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br/>L'impact des contraintes financières dans la dé-<br/>cision d'investissement</td><td>G 2000/07</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Microsimulations of the retirement decision: a<br/>supply side approach</td></tr><tr><td>G 9709</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Analyzing a small French ECM Model</td><td>G 9805</td><td>P. CAHUC - Ch. GIANELLA -<br/>D. GOUX - A. ZILBERBERG<br/>Equalizing Wage Differences and Bargaining<br/>Power - Evidence form a Panel of French Firms</td><td>G 9908</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1998</td><td>G 2000/08</td><td>C. AUDENIS - C. PROST<br/>Déficit conjoncturel : une prise en compte des<br/>conjonctures passées</td></tr><tr><td>G 9710</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Formalizing the transition process: scenarios for<br/>capital accumulation</td><td>G 9806</td><td>J. ACCARDO - M. JLASSI<br/>La productivité globale des facteurs entre 1975 et<br/>1996</td><td>G 9909</td><td>J.P. ZOYEM<br/>Contrat d'insertion et sortie du RMI<br/>Évaluation des effets d'une politique sociale</td><td>G 2000/09</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Équivalent patrimonial de la rente et souscription<br/>de retraite complémentaire</td></tr><tr><td>G 9711</td><td>G. FORGEOT - J. GAUTIÉ<br/>Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et processus<br/>de déclassement</td><td>G 9911</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une décomposition du non-emploi en France</td><td>G 9910</td><td>Ch. COLIN - FI. LEGROS - R. MAHIEU<br/>Bilans contributifs comparés des régimes de<br/>retraite du secteur privé et de la fonction publique</td><td>G 2000/10</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Ralentissement de l'investissement : petites ou<br/>grandes entreprises ? industrie ou tertiaire ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9712</td><td>E. DUBOIS<br/>High Real Interest Rates: the Consequence of a<br/>Saving Investment Disequilibrium or of an in-<br/>sufficient Credibility of Monetary Authorities?</td><td>G 9912</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une maquette analytique de long terme du<br/>métré du travail</td><td>G 9912</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une maquette analytique de long terme du<br/>métré du travail</td><td>G 2000/11</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Temps partiel féminin et incitations financières à<br/>l'emploi</td></tr><tr><td>G 9713</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études<br/>et Synthèses Économiques - 1996</td><td>G 9912</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Local unemployment and wages</td><td>G 9912</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Local unemployment and wages</td><td>G 2000/12</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Local unemployment and wages</td></tr></table>
G2000/13 B. CREPON - Th. HECKEL
- Informatisation en France : une évaluation à partir de données individuelles
- Computerization in France: an evaluation based on individual company data

G2001/01 F. LEQUILLER
- La nouvelle économie et la mesure de la croissance du PIB
- The new economy and the measure ment of GDP growth

G2001/02 S. AUDRIC
La reprise de la croissance de l'emploi profite-t-elle aussi aux non-diplômés ?

G2001/03 I. BRAUN-LEMAIRE
Évolution et répartition du surplus de productivité

G2001/04 A. BEAUDU - Th. HECKEL
Le canal du crédit fonctionne-t-il en Europe ? Une étude de l'hétérogénéité des comportements d'investissement à partir de données de bilan agréées

G2001/05 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE - O. LOISEL
Testing the augmented Solow growth model: An empirical reassessment using panel data

G2001/06 R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT
Départ à la retraite, irréversibilité et incertitude

G2001/07 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2000

G2001/08 J. Ph. GAUDEMET
Les dispositifs d'acquisition à titre facultatif d'annuités viagères de retraite

G2001/09 B. CRÉPON - Ch. GIANELLA
Fiscalité, coût d'usage du capital et demande de facteurs : une analyse sur données individuelles

G2001/10 B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ
Évaluation des effets des dispositifs d'allégements de charges sociales sur les bas salaires

G2001/11 J.-Y. FOURNIER
Comparaison des salaires des secteurs public et privé

G2001/12 J.-P. BERTHIER - C. JAULENT
R. CONVENEVOLE - S. PISANI
Une méthodologie de comparaison entre consommations intermédiaires de source fiscale et de comptabilité nationale

G2001/13 P. BISCOURP - Ch. GIANELLA
Substitution and complementarity between capital, skilled and less skilled workers: an analysis at the firm level in the French manufacturing industry

G2001/14 I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Modelling demographic behaviours in the French microsimulation model Destinie: An analysis of future change in completed fertility

G2001/15 J.-P. ZOYEM
Diagnostic sur la pauvreté et calendrier de revenus : le cas du "Panel européen des ménages »

G2001/16 J.-Y. FOURNIER - P. GIVORD
La réduction des taux d'activité aux âges extrêmes, une spécificité française ?

G2001/17 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. RIEDINGER
Existe-t-il une asymétrie dans la transmission du prix du brut aux prix des carburants ?

G2002/01 F. MAGNIEN - J.-L. TAVERNIER - D. THESMAR
Les statistiques internationales de PIB par habitant en standard de pouvoir d'achat : une analyse des résultats

G2002/02 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2001

G2002/03 B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ?

G2002/04 G. BRILHAULT
- Rétropolation des séries de FBCF et calcul du capital fixe en SEC-95 dans les comptes nationaux français

- Retropolation of the investment series (GFCF) and estimation of fixed capital stocks on the ESA-95 basis for the French balance sheets

G2002/05 P. BISCOURP - B. CRÉPON - T. HECKEL - N. RIEDINGER

How do firms respond to cheaper computers? Microeconometric evidence for France based on a production function approach

G2002/06 C. AUDENIS - J. DERDYON - N. FOURCADE
L'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication sur l'économie française - un bouclage macro-économique

G2002/07 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Évaluation de trois réformes du Régime Général d'assurance vieillesse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2002/08 J.-P. BERTHIER
Réflexions sur les différentes notions de volume dans les comptes nationaux : comptes aux prix d'une année fixe ou aux prix de l'année précédente, séries chaînées

G2002/09 F. HILD
Les soldes d'opinion résument-ils au mieux les réponses des entreprises aux enquêtes de conjoncture ?

G2002/10 I. ROBERT-BOBÉE
Les comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation Destinie - Une comparaison des estimations issues des enquêtes Jeunes et Carrières 1997 et Histoire Familiale 1999

G2002/11 J.-P. ZOYEM
La dynamique des bas revenus : une analyse des entrées-sorties de pauvreté

G2002/12 F. HILD
Prévisions d'inflation pour la France

G2002/13 M. LECLAIR
Réduction du temps de travail et tensions sur les facteurs de production

G2002/14 E. WALRAET - A. VINCENT
- Analyse de la redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé - Une approche par microsimulation
- Intragenerational distributional analysis in the french private sector pension scheme - A microsimulation approach

G2002/15 P. CHONE - D. LE BLANC - I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Offre de travail féminine et garde des jeunes enfants

G2002/16 F. MAUREL - S. GREGOIR
Les indices de compétitivité des pays : inter-prétation et limites

G2003/01 N. RIEDINGER - E.HAUVY
Le coût de dépollution atmosphérique pour les entreprises françaises : Une estimation à partir de données individuelles

G2003/02 P. BISCOURP et F. KRAMARZ
Création d'emplois, destruction d'emplois et internationalisation des entreprises industrielles françaises : une analyse sur la période 1986-1992

G2003/03 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2002

G2003/04 P.-O. BEFFY - J. DERDYON - N. FOURCADE - S. GREGOIR - N. LAÎB - B. MONFORT
Évolutions démographiques et croissance : une projection macro-économique à l'horizon 2020

G2003/05 P. AUBERT
La situation des salariés de plus de cinquante ans dans le secteur privé

G2003/06 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON
Age, salaire et productivité
La productivité des salariés décline-t-elle en fin de carrière ?

G2003/07 H. BARON - P.O. BEFFY - N. FOURCADE - R. MAHIEU
Le ralentissement de la productivité du travail au cours des années 1990

G2003/08 P.-O. BEFFY - B. MONFORT
Patrimoine des ménages, dynamique d'allocation et comportement de consommation

G2003/09 P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE
Peut-on mettre en évidence l'existence de rigidités à la baisse des salaires à partir de données individuelles ? Le cas de la France à la fin des années 90

G2003/10 M. LECLAIR - P. PETIT
Présence syndicale dans les firmes : quel impact sur les inégalités salariales entre les hommes et les femmes ?

G2003/11 P.-O. BEFFY - X. BONNET - M. DARRACQ-PARIES - B. MONFORT
MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

G2004/01 P. AUBERT - M. LECLAIR
La compétitivité exprimée dans les enquêtes trimestrielles sur la situation et les perspectives dans l'industrie

G2004/02 M. DUÉE - C. REBILLARD
La dépendance des personnes âgées : une projection à long terme

G2004/03 S. RASPILLER - N. RIEDINGER
Régulation environnementale et choix de localisation des groupes français

G2004/04 A. NABOULET - S. RASPILLER
Les déterminants de la décision d'investir : une approche par les perceptions subjectives des firmes

G2004/05 N. RAGACHE
La déclaration des enfants par les couples non mariés est-elle fiscalement optimale ?

G2004/06 M. DUÉE
L'impact du chômage des parents sur le devenir scolaire des enfants

G2004/07 P. AUBERT - E. CAROLI - M. ROGER
New Technologies, Workplace Organisation and the Age Structure of the Workforce: Firm-Level Evidence

G2004/08 E. DUGUET - C. LELARGE
Les brevets accroissent-ils les incitations privées à innover ? Un examen microéconomique

G2004/09 S. RASPILLER - P. SILLARD
Affiliating versus Subcontracting: the Case of Multinationals

G2004/10 J. BOISSINOT - C. L'ANGEVIN - B. MONFORT
Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case

G2004/11 S. ANANIAN - P. AUBERT
Travailleurs âgés, nouvelles technologies et changements organisationnels : un réexamen à partir de l'enquête « REPONSE »

G2004/12 X. BONNET - H. PONCET
Structures de revenus et propensions différentes à consommer - Vers une équation de consommation des ménages plus robuste en prévision pour la France

G2004/13 C. PICART
Évaluer la rentabilité des sociétés non financières

G2004/14 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Les retraites du secteur public : projections à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2005/01 S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Conditions de départ en retraite selon l'âge de fin d'études : analyse prospective pour les générations 1945 à1974

G2005/02 C. AFSA - S. BUFFETEAU
L'évolution de l'activité féminine en France : une approche par pseudo-panel

G2005/03 P. AUBERT - P. SILLARD
Délocalisations et réductions d'effectifs dans l'industrie française

G2005/04 M. LECLAIR - S. ROUX
Mesure et utilisation des emplois instables dans les entreprises

G2005/05 C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances à l'exportation de la France et de l'Allemagne - Une analyse par secteur et destination géographique

G2005/06 Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Economiques - 2004

G2005/07 S. RASPILLER
La concurrence fiscale : principaux enseignements de l'analyse économique

G2005/08 C. L'ANGEVIN - N. LAÎB
Éducation et croissance en France et dans un panel de 21 pays de l'OCDE
G2005/09 N. FERRARI
Prévoir l'investissement des entreprises
Un indicateur des révisions dans l'enquête de
conjoncture sur les investissements dans
l'industrie.

G2005/10 P.-O. BEFFY - C. L'ANGEVIN
Chômage et boucle prix-salaires :
apport d'un modèle « qualifiés/peu qualifiés »

G2005/11 B. HEITZ
A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation
in France and the USA: credible target VS
inflation spiral

G2005/12 O. BIAU - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - N. FERRARI
Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de
conjoncture et prévision macroéconomiques :
Exemple de la prévision de la production
manufacturière

G2005/13 P. AUBERT - D. BLANCHET - D. BLAU
The labour market after age 50: some elements
of a Franco-American comparison

G2005/14 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND - P. DOUGRONN - P. POLLET
L'enquête SHARE : présentation et premiers
résultats de l'édition française

G2005/15 M. DUÉE
La modélisation des comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation
DESTINIE

G2005/16 H. RAOUI - S. ROUX
Étude de simulation sur la participation versée
aux salariés par les entreprises

G2006/01 C. BONNET - S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Disparités de retraite de droit direct entre
hommes et femmes : quelles évolutions ?

G2006/02 C. PICART
Les gazelles en France

G2006/03 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON - P. ZAMORA
Le rendement apparent de la formation continue
dans les entreprises : effets sur la productivité et
les salaires

G2006/04 J.-F. OUVRARD - R. RATHELOT
Demographic change and unemployment:
what do macroeconomic models predict?

G2006/05 D. BLANCHET - J.-F. OUVRARD
Indicateurs d'engagements implicites des
systèmes de retraite : chiffrages, propriétés
analytiques et réactions à des chocs
démographiques types

G2006/06 G. BIAU - O. BIAU - L. ROUVIERE
Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing
Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

G2006/07 C. AFSA - P. GIVORD
Le rôle des conditions de travail dans les
absences pour maladie

G2006/08 P. SILLARD - C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances comparées à l'exportation de la
France et de ses principaux partenaires
Une analyse structurelle sur 12 ans

G2006/09 X. BOUTIN - S. QUANTIN
Une méthodologie d'évaluation comptable du
coût du capital des entreprises françaises : 1984-
2002

G2006/10 C. AFSA
L'estimation d'un coût implicite de la pénibilité du
travail chez les travailleurs âgés

G2006/11 C. LELARGE
Les entreprises (industrielles) françaises sont-
elles à la frontière technologique ?

G2006/12 O. BIAU - N. FERRARI
Théorie de l'opinion
Faut-il pondérer les réponses individuelles ?

G2006/13 A. KOUBI - S. ROUX
Une réinterprétation de la relation entre
productivité et inégalités salariales dans les
entreprises

G2006/14 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
The impact of local taxes on plants location
decision

G2006/15 L. GONZALEZ - C. PICART
Diversification, recentrage et poids des activités
de support dans les groupes (1993-2000)

G2007/01 D. SRAER
Allègements de cotisations patronales et
dynamique salariale

G2007/02 V. ALBOUY - L. LEQUIEN
Les rendements non monétaires de l'éducation :
le cas de la santé

G2007/03 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND
Aspiration à la retraite, santé et satisfaction au
travail : une comparaison européenne

G2007/04 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON
Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur
la croissance française ?

G2007/05 C. PICART
Flux d'emploi et de main-d'œuvre en France : un
réexamen

G2007/06 V. ALBOUY - C. TAVAN
Massification et démocratisation de
l'enseignement supérieur en France

G2007/07 T. LE BARBANCHON
The Changing response to oil price shocks in
France: a DSGE type approach

G2007/08 T. CHANEY - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Collateral Value and Corporate Investment
Evidence from the French Real Estate Market

G2007/09 J. BOISSINOT
Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts for
France

G2007/10 C. AFSA
Interpréter les variables de satisfaction :
l'exemple de la durée du travail

G2007/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
Zones Franches Urbaines : quels effets sur
l'emploi salarié et les créations
d'établissements ?

G2007/12 V. ALBOUY - B. CRÉPON
Aléa moral en santé : une évaluation dans le
cadre du modèle causal de Rubin

G2008/01 C. PICART
Les PME françaises : rentables mais peu
dynamiques

G2008/02 P. BISCOURP - X. BOUTIN - T. VERGÉ
The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices
Evidence form the Loi Galland

G2008/03 Y. BARBESOL - A. BRIANT
Économies d'agglomération et productivité des
entreprises : estimation sur données individuelles
françaises

G2008/04 D. BLANCHET - F. LE GALLO
Les projections démographiques : principaux
mécanismes et retour sur l'expérience française

G2008/05 D. BLANCHET - F. TOUTLEMONDE
Évolutions démographiques et déformation du
cycle de vie active : quelles relations ?

G2008/06 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - L. CRUSSON
Internationalisation et flux d'emplois : que dit une
approche comptable ?

G2008/07 C. LELARGE - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints -
Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee
Program

G2008/08 X. BOUTIN - L. JANIN
Are Prices Really Affected by Mergers?

G2008/09 M. BARLET - A. BRIANT - L. CRUSSON
Concentration géographique dans l'industrie
manufacturière et dans les services en France :
une approche par un indicateur en continu

G2008/10 M. BEFFY - É. COUDIN - R. RATHELOT
Who is confronted to insecure labor market
histories? Some evidence based on the French
labor market transition

G2008/11 M. ROGER - E. WALRAET
Social Security and Well-Being of the Elderly: the
Case of France

G2008/12 C. AFSA
Analyser les composantes du bien-être et de son
 évolution

G2008/13 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - T. LE BARBANCHON
Microsimuler le marché du travail : un prototype

G2009/01 P.-A. PIONNIER
Le partage de la valeur ajoutée en France,
1949-2007

G2009/02 Laurent CLAVEL - Christelle MINODIER
A Monthly Indicator of the French Business
Climate

G2009/03 H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - C. MINODIER
Do Business Tendency Surveys in Industry and
Services Help in Forecasting GDP Growth?
A Real-Time Analysis on French Data

G2009/04 P. GIVORD - L. WILNER
Les contrats temporaires : trappe ou marchepied
vers l'emploi stable ?

G2009/05 G. LALANNE - P.-A. PIONNIER - O. SIMON
Le partage des fruits de la croissance de 1950 à
2008 : une approche par les comptes de surplus

G2009/06 L. DAVEZIES - X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE
Faut-il pondérer ?... Ou l'éternelle question de
l'économètre confronté à des données d'enquête

G2009/07 S. QUANTIN - S. RASPILLER - S. SERRAVALLE
Commerce intragroupe, fiscalité et prix de
transferts : une analyse sur données françaises

G2009/08 M. CLERC - V. MARCUS
Élasticités - prix des consommations énergétiques
des ménages

G2009/09 G. LALANNE - E. POULIQUEN - O. SIMON
Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long
termes

G2009/10 D. BLANCHET - J. LE CACHEUX - V. MARCUS
Adjusted net savings and other approaches to
sustainability: some theoretical background

G2009/11 V. BELLAMY - G. CONSALES - M. FESSEAU - S. LE LAIDIER - É. RAYNAUD
Une décomposition du compte des ménages de
la comptabilité nationale par catégorie de
ménage en 2003

G2009/12 J. BARDAJI - F. TALLET
Detecting Economic Regimes in France: a
Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using
Mixed Frequency Data

G2009/13 R. AEBERHARDT - D. FOUGÈRE - R. RATHELOT
Discrimination à l'embauche : comment exploiter
les procédures de testing ?

G2009/14 Y. BARBESOL - P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN
Partage de la valeur ajoutée, approche par
données microéconomiques

G2009/15 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE
The Effect of the Uruguay round on the Intensive
and Extensive Margins of Trade

G2010/01 C. MINODIER
Avantages comparés des séries des premières
valeurs publiées et des séries des valeurs
révisées - Un exercice de prévision en temps réel
de la croissance trimestrielle du PIB en France

G2010/02 V. ALBOUY - L. DAVEZIES - T. DEBRAND
Health Expenditure Models: a Comparison of Five
Specifications using Panel Data

G2010/03 C. KLEIN - O. SIMON
Le modèle MÉSANGE réestimé en base 2000
Tome 1 – Version avec volumes à prix constants

G2010/04 M.-É. CLERC - É. COUDIN
L'IPC, miroir de l'évolution du coût de la vie en
France ? Ce qu'apporte l'analyse des courbes
d'Engel

G2010/05 N. CECI-RENAUD - P.-A. CHEVALIER
Les seuils de 10, 20 et 50 salariés : impact sur la
taille des entreprises françaises

G2010/06 R. AEBERHARDT - J. POUGET
National Origin Differences in Wages and
Hierarchical Positions - Evidence on French Full-
Time Male Workers from a matched Employer-
Employee Dataset

G2010/07 S. BLASCO - P. GIVORD
Les trajectoires professionnelles en début de vie
active : quel impact des contrats temporaires ?

G2010/08 P. GIVORD
Méthodes économétriques pour l'évaluation de
politiques publiques
G2010/09 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. LAPÈGUE - E. POULIQUEN - M. BEFFY - M. GAINI Quelle croissance de moyen terme après la crise ?

G2010/10 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE La réaction des entreprises françaises à la baisse des tarifs douaniers étrangers

G2010/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD L'apport des méthodes à noyaux pour mesurer la concentration géographique - Application à la concentration des immigrés en France de 1968 à 1999

G2010/12 M. BARATON - M. BEFFY - D. FOUGÈRE Une évaluation de l'effet de la réforme de 2003 sur les départs en retraite - Le cas des enseignants du second degré public

G2010/13 D. BLANCHET - S. BUFFETEAU - E. CRENNER S. LE MINEZ Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2: principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats

G2010/14 D. BLANCHET - E. CRENNER Le bloc retraites du modèle Destinie 2: guide de l'utilisateur

G2010/15 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON - S. DUPUCH - F. PUECH Des services échangés aux services échangeables : une application sur données françaises

G2010/16 M. BEFFY - T. KAMIONKA Public-private wage gaps: is civil-servant human capital sector-specific?

G2010/17 P.-Y. CABANNES - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - G. LALANNE - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Le modèle Mésange réestimé en base 2000 Tome 2 - Version avec volumes à prix chaînes

G2010/18 R. AEBERHARDT - L. DAVEZIES Conditional Logit with one Binary Covariate: Link between the Static and Dynamic Cases

G2011/01 T. LE BARBANCHON - B. OURLIAC - O. SIMON Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjonctuels des années 1986 à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE

G2011/02 C. MARBOT Une évaluation de la réduction d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile

G2011/03 L. DAVEZIES Modèles à effets fixes, à effets aléatoires, modèles mixtes ou multi-niveaux: propriétés et mises en œuvre des modélisations de l'hétérogénéité dans le cas de données groupées

G2011/04 M. ROGER - M. WASMER Heterogeneity matters: labour productivity differentiated by age and skills

G2011/05 J.-C. BRICONGNE - J.-M. FOURNIER V. LAPÈGUE - O. MONSO De la crise financière à la crise économique L'impact des perturbations financières de 2007 et 2008 sur la croissance de sept pays industrialisés

G2011/06 P. CHARNOZ - É. COUDIN - M. GAINI Wage inequalities in France 1976-2004: a quantile regression analysis

G2011/07 M. CLERC - M. GAINI - D. BLANCHET Recommendations of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report: A few illustrations

G2011/08 M. BACHELET - M. BEFFY - D. BLANCHET Projeter l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus : une comparaison de trois modèles

G2011/09 C. LOUVOT-RUNAVOT L'évaluation de l'activité dissimulée des entreprises sur la base des contrôles fiscaux et son insertion dans les comptes nationaux

G2011/10 A. SCHREIBER - A. VICARD La tertiairisation de l'économie française et le ralentissement de la productivité entre 1978 et 2008

G2011/11 M.-É. CLERC - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Les inégalités entre générations depuis le baby-boom

G2011/12 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Évaluation de la transformation de la réduction d'impôt en crédit d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile en 2007

G2011/13 P. GIVORD - R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects: An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program

G2011/14 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. GIVORD - X. BOUTIN The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: the Case of the French "Bonus/Malus"

G2011/15 M. BARLET - M. CLERC - M. GARNEO - V. LAPÈGUE - V. MARCUS La nouvelle version du modèle MZE, modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro

G2011/16 R. AEBERHARDT - I. BUONO - H. FADINGER Learning, Incomplete Contracts and Export Dynamics: Theory and Evidence form French Firms

G2011/17 C. KERDRAIN - V. LAPÈGUE Restrictive Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Likely Effects?

G2012/01 P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN - C. TREVIEN A Long-Term Evaluation of the First Generation of the French Urban Enterprise Zones

G2012/02 N. CECI-RENAUD - V. COTTET Politique salariale et performance des entreprises

G2012/03 P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Do Consumers Correctly Expect Price Reductions? Testing Dynamic Behavior

G2012/04 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD School as a shelter? School leaving-age and the business cycle in France

G2012/05 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD A scarred generation? French evidence on young people entering into a tough labour market

G2012/06 P. AUBERT - M. BACHELET Disparités de montant de pension et redistribution dans le système de retraite français

G2012/07 R. AEBERHARDT - P GIVORD - C. MARBOT Spillover Effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach

G2012/08 A. EIDELMAN - F. LANGUMIER - A. VICARD Prélèvements obligatoires reposant sur les ménages : des canaux redistributifs différents en 1990 et 2010

G2012/09 O. BARGAIN - A. VICARD Le RMI et son successeur le RSA découragent-ils certains jeunes de travailler ? Une analyse sur les jeunes autour de 25 ans

G2012/10 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie

G2012/11 A. MAUROUX Le crédit d'impôt dédié au développement durable : une évaluation économique

G2012/12 V. COTTET - S. QUANTIN - V. RÉGNIER Coût du travail et allègements de charges : une estimation au niveau établissement de 1996 à 2008

G2012/13 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Demand Estimation in the Presence of Revenue Management

G2012/14 D. BLANCHET - S. LE MINEZ Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms

G2013/01-F1301 T. DERDYON - A. MONTAUT - P-A PIONNIER Utilisation rétrospective de l'enquête Emploi à une fréquence mensuelle: apport d'une modélisation espace-état

G2013/02-F1302 C. TREVIEN Habiter en HLM: quel avantage monétaire et quel impact sur les conditions de logement ?

G2013/03 A. POISSONNIER Temporal disaggregation of stock variables - The Chow-Lin method extended to dynamic models

G2013/04 P. GIVORD - C. MARBOT Does the cost of child care affect female labor market participation? An evaluation of a French reform of childcare subsidies

G2013/05 G. LAME - M. LEQUIEN - P.-A. PIONNIER Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance

G2013/06 C. BELLEGO - V. DORTET-BERNADET La participation aux pôles de compétitivité : quelle incidence sur les dépenses de R&D et l'activité des PME et ETI ?

G2013/07 P.-Y. CABANNES - A. MONTAUT - P.-A. PIONNIER Évaluer la productivité globale des facteurs en France : l'apport d'une mesure de la qualité du capital et du travail

G2013/08 R. AEBERHARDT - C. MARBOT Evolution of Instability on the French Labour Market During the Last Thirty Years

G2013/09 J-B. BERNARD - G. CLÉAUD Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy

G2013/10 G. LAME Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?

G2013/11 P. CHONÉ - F. EVAIN - L. WILNER - E. YILMAZ Introducing activity-based payment in the hospital industry: Evidence from French data

G2013/12 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY Natural Disasters: Exposure and Underinsurance

G2013/13 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. COTTET - Y. DUBOIS - C. LELARGE - M. SICSIC French Firms in the Face of the 2008/2009 Crisis

G2013/14 A. POISSONNIER - D. ROY Households Satellite Account for France in 2010. Methodological issues on the assessment of domestic production

G2013/15 G. CLÉAUD - M. LEMOINE - P.-A. PIONNIER Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?

G2014/01 M. BACHELET - A. LEDUC - A. MARINO Les biographies du modèle Destinie II: rebasage et projection

G2014/02 B. GARBINTI L'achat de la résidence principale et la création d'entreprises sont-ils favorisés par les donations et héritages ?

G2014/03 N. CECI-RENAUD - P. CHARNOZ - M. GAINI Évolution de la volatilité des revenus salariaux du secteur privé en France depuis 1968

G2014/04 P. AUBERT Modalités d'application des réformes des retraites et prévisibilité du montant de pension

G2014/05 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - A. KATOSSKY The Impact of Hazardous Industrial Facilities on Housing Prices: A Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Hedonic Price Models

G2014/06 J.-M. DAUSSIN-BENICHOU - A. MAUROUX Turning the heat up. How sensitive are households to fiscal incentives on energy efficiency investments?

G2014/07 C. LABONNE - G. LAMÉ Credit Growth and Capital Requirements: Binding or Not?

G2014/08 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY et C. TREVIEN The Impact of Housing Subsidies on the Rental Sector: the French Example

G2014/09 M. LEQUIEN et A. MONTAUT Croissance potentielle en France et en zone euro: un tour d'horizon des méthodes d'estimation

G2014/10 B. GARBINTI - P. LAMARCHE Les hauts revenus épargnent-ils davantage ?

G2014/11 D. AUDENAERT - J. BARDAJI - R. LARDEUX - M. ORAND - M. SICSIC Wage Resilience in France since the Great Recession

G2014/12 F. ARNAUD - J. BOUSSARD - A. POISSONNIER - H. SOUAL Computing additive contributions to growth and other issues for chain-linked quarterly aggregates

G2014/13 H. FRAISSE - F. KRAMARZ - C. PROST Labor Disputes and Job Flows
G2014/14 P. GIVORD - C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - H. NAEGELE
How does fuel taxation impact new car purchases? An evaluation using French consumer-level dataset

G2014/15 P. AUBERT - S. RABATÉ
Durée passée en carrière et durée de vie en retraite : quel partage des gains d'espérance de vie ?

G2015/01 A. POISSONNIER
The walking dead Euler equation
Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

G2015/02 Y. DUBOIS - A. MARINO
Indicateurs de rendement du système de retraite français

G2015/03 T. MAYER - C. TREVIEN
The impacts of Urban Public Transportation: Evidence from the Paris Region

G2015/04 S.T. LY - A. RIEGERT
Measuring Social Environment Mobility

G2015/05 M. A. BEN HALIMA - V. HYAFIL-SOLELHAC
M. KOUBI - C. REGAERT
Quel est l'impact du système d'indemnisation maladie sur la durée des arrêts de travail pour maladie ?

G2015/06 Y. DUBOIS - A. MARINO
Disparités de rendement du système de retraite dans le secteur privé : approches intergénérationnelle et intragénérationnelle

G2015/07 B. CAMPAGNE - V. ALHENC-GELAS - J.-B. BERNARD
No evidence of financial accelerator in France

G2015/08 Q. LAFFÉTER - M. PAK
Élasticités des recettes fiscales au cycle économique : étude de trois impôts sur la période 1979-2013 en France

G2015/09 J.-M. DAUSSIN-BENICHOU, S. IDMACHICHE, A. LEDUC et E. POULIQUEN
Les déterminants de l'attractivité de la fonction publique de l'État

G2015/10 P. AUBERT
La modulation du montant de pension selon la durée de carrière et l'âge de la retraite : quelles disparités entre assurés ?

G2015/11 V. DORTET-BERNADET - M. SICSIC
Effet des aides publiques sur l'emploi en R&D dans les petites entreprises

G2015/12 S. GEORGES-KOT
Annual and lifetime incidence of the value-added tax in France

G2015/13 M. POULHÈS
Are Enterprise Zones Benefits Capitalized into Commercial Property Values? The French Case

G2015/14 J.-B. BERNARD - Q. LAFFÉTER
Effet de l'activité et des prix sur le revenu salarial des différentes catégories socioprofessionnelles

G2015/15 C. GEAY - M. KOUBI - G de LAGASNERIE
Projections des dépenses de soins de ville, construction d'un module pour Destinie

G2015/16 J. BARDAJI - J.-C. BRICONGNE - B. CAMPAGNE - G. GAULIER
Compared performances of French companies on the domestic and foreign markets

G2015/17 C. BELLÉGO - R. DE NIJS
The redistributive effect of online piracy on the box office performance of American movies in foreign markets

G2015/18 J.-B. BERNARD - L. BERTHET
French households financial wealth: which changes in 20 years?

G2015/19 M. POULHÈS
Fenêtre sur Cour ou Chambre avec Vue ?
Les prix hédoniques de l'immobilier parisien

G2016/01 B. GARBINTI - S. GEORGES-KOT
Time to smell the roses? Risk aversion, the timing of inheritance receipt, and retirement

G2016/02 P. CHARNOZ - C. LELARGE - C. TREVIEN
Communication Costs and the Internal Organization of Multi-Plant Businesses: Evidence from the Impact of the French High-Speed Rail

G2016/03 C. BONNET - B. GARBINTI - A. SOLAZ
Gender Inequality after Divorce: The Flip Side of Marital Specialization - Evidence from a French Administrative Database

G2016/04 D. BLANCHET - E. CAROLI - C. PROST - M. ROGER
Health capacity to work at older ages in France