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Research directions and results in the Smart4RES project for improving renewable energy forecasting

Georges Kariniotakis, Simon Camal, Dennis van Der Meer, Pierre Pinson, Gregor Giebel, Liyang Han, Ricardo Bessa, Quentin Libois, Marie Cassas, Bastien Alonzo, et al.

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► To cite this version:

Georges Kariniotakis, Simon Camal, Dennis van Der Meer, Pierre Pinson, Gregor Giebel, et al. Research directions and results in the Smart4RES project for improving renewable energy forecasting. Wind Energy Science Conference (WESC), European Academy of Wind Energy (EAWE), May 2021, Virtual Event, Germany. hal-03248217

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https://hal.science/hal-03248217

Submitted on 3 Jun 2021

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# Research directions and results in the Smart4RES project for improving renewable energy forecasting

Georges Kariniotakis¹*, Simon Camal¹, Dennis van der Meer¹, Pierre Pinson², Gregor Giebel², Liyang Han², Ricardo Bessa³, Quentin Libois⁴, Marie Cassas⁴, Bastien Alonzo⁴, Matthias Lange⁵, Stefan Gilbert⁶, Bijan Nouri⁶, Alexandre Neto⁷, Remco Verzijlbergh⁸, Gerrit Deen⁸, Ganesh Sauba⁹, George Sideratos¹⁰, and Christos Vitellas¹¹

¹ MINES ParisTech, PSL University, ARMINES

² DTU

³ INESC TEC

⁴ Meteo France

⁵ Energy & Meteo Systems

⁶ DLR

*Presenting author

⁷ EDP CNET

⁸ WHIFFLE

⁹ DNV

¹⁰ NTUA

¹¹ DEDDIE

In this presentation we will show the research directions and innovative solutions developed in the European Horizon 2020 project Smart4RES (http://www.smart4res.eu) for better modelling and forecasting of weather variables necessary to optimise the integration of renewable energy (RES) production (i.e. wind, solar, run-of-the-river hydro) into power systems and electricity markets.

Smart4RES started in November 2019 and gathers experts from several disciplines, from meteorology and renewable generation to market- and grid-integration. It aims to contribute to reach very high RES penetrations in power grids of 2030 and beyond, through thematic objectives including:

* Improvement of weather forecasting with focus on variables that are important for RES applications,

* Improvement of RES power forecasting and better estimation of uncertainties,

* Streamlined extraction of optimal value through new forecasting products, data market places, and novel business models,

* New data-driven optimization and decision-aid tools for market and grid management applications.

* Validation of new models in living labs and assessment of forecasting value vs costly remedies to hedge uncertainties (i.e. storage).

Smart4RES focuses both on improving forecasting models of weather (e.g. physical models, data assimilation, Large Eddy Simulation, enabling weather forecasts seamless) and RES production (e.g. seamless models, highly resolved predictions), and on addressing applications in power grids.

Developments in the project have been formalized in Use Cases that cover a large range of time frames, technologies and geographical scales. For example, use-cases on power grids refer to the provision of ancillary services to the upper-level grid (e.g., balancing power) and the local grid (e.g., voltage control and congestion management), where the accurate forecasts of variable generation are key for accurate decision-making. A grid state forecasting will quantify dynamically the flexibility potential of RES in distribution grids. Collaborative forecasting investigates the improvement associated to local data sharing between distributed RES plants. This data sharing paves the way to a data market where agents exchange measurements, predictions or other types of valuable data.
Lastly, data-driven approaches will streamline decision-making by simplifying the model chain of bidding RES production, storage dispatch or predictive management electricity grids. They will also provide interpretable hindsight to decision-makers by integrating the decisions of experts (human-in-the-loop) and will be tested in realistic laboratory conditions (software-in-the-loop).

In this presentation we focus on the work done for improving modelling and forecasting of weather variables with accent to wind energy; i.e. through innovative measuring set-ups; through the development of seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) approaches to be able to couple outputs of NWP models with different resolutions; through ultra-high resolution NWPs based on Large Eddy Simulation. We present results using data from real world test cases considered in the project. Finally, we assess how the new forecasting products may bring value to the applications.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>**Figure:** Overview of Smart4RES research priorities for improving the whole model and value chain of RES forecasting</figcaption></figure>

1

**Requirements** for forecasting technologies to enable 100% RES penetration

2

RES-dedicated weather forecasting with 10-15% improvement using various sources of data and very high resolution approaches.

3

New generation of **forecasting tools for RES production** enabling 15% improvement in performance.

4

Streamline the process of getting optimal value through new forecasting products, data market places, and novel business models

5

New data-driven optimisation and decision aid tools for power system management and RES market participation

6

Validation of new models in living labs and assessment of forecasting value vs remedies.

**Keywords:** "Renewable forecasting", "Data science", "Weather predictions", "Grid integration"

**Acknowledgment:**

This work is performed in the frame of the Smart4RES project (http://www.smart4RES, Grant No 864337) supported by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme.