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# Co-constructing and simulating LUCC scenarios for evaluating the sustainability of environmental policies and helping the decision-making over the long term

Thomas Houet, Roberta Rigo, Gaetan Palka

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Thomas Houet, Roberta Rigo, Gaetan Palka. Co-constructing and simulating LUCC scenarios for evaluating the sustainability of environmental policies and helping the decision-making over the long term. eLTER Science Conference, Jun 2025, Tampere, Finland. 10.3897/aca.8.e148426. http://hal-05164840

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Submitted on 21 Jul 2025

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# Co-constructing and simulating LUCC scenarios for evaluating the sustainability of environmental policies and supporting long-term decision-making

Thomas Houet<sup>‡§</sup>, Roberta Rigo<sup>§</sup>, Gaetan Palka<sup>l§</sup>

‡ UMR LETG, CNRS Université de Rennes 2, Rennes, France

§ LTSER-FR Zone Atelier Armorique, Rennes, France

| UR CEDETE, Université Orléans, Orléans, France

Corresponding author: Thomas Houet (thomas.houet@univ-rennes2.fr)

Received: 31 Jan 2025 | Published: 28 May 2025

Citation: Houet T, Rigo R, Palka G (2025) Co-constructing and simulating LUCC scenarios for evaluating the sustainability of environmental policies and supporting long-term decision-making. ARPHA Conference Abstracts 8: e148426. https://doi.org/10.3897/aca.8.e148426

## Abstract

Urbanization and agricultural intensification are major drivers of biodiversity loss due to multiple stressors, including land artificialization, habitat fragmentation, isolation, and degradation. These land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) also impact water quality, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem services. Designing Blue and Green Infrastructure Networks (BEGINs) has been proposed as a strategic approach to land-use planning that enhances ecosystem services while preserving biodiversity and improving water management.

This study focuses on the Couesnon watershed (Brittany, France) within the LTSER Zone Atelier Armorique (https://deims.org/31e67a47-5f15-40ad-9a72-f6f0ee4ecff6). A participatory approach was employed to develop five future LUCC scenarios incorporating BEGINs. Narrative descriptions were then used as input for the FORESCEM model to simulate LUCC dynamics (Fig. 1 - Houet et al. 2022).
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1. doi</figcaption></figure>

Land-cover maps for the Couesnon watershed in (a) 2018 (upper left) and predicted in 2050 with the FORESCEM framework for (b) the Business-as-usual, (c) Double performance, (d) Desert of cereals, (e) Energy performance and (f) Green attractiveness scenarios (from Houet et al. (2022)).

The impacts on biodiversity were assessed by evaluating changes in landscape connectivity for woodlands, grasslands, and wetlands using the model developed by Boussard et al. (2020). Additionally, the effects on water quality and quantity were analyzed under LUCC and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios using the model developed by Álvarez-Cabria et al. (2016). The effectiveness of BEGIN policies was assessed by comparing current landscape connectivity (2018) with projected connectivity in 2050 and by estimating future water quality.

Results indicate that despite integrating BEGINs, the projected impacts on biodiversity (Fig. 2) and water resources could still be significantly negative. Key drivers of future agricultural land-use changes and related environmental impacts include evolving CAP priorities, demographic trends among farmers, and climate change. While BEGINs are effective in mitigating urbanization impacts, they may not be sufficient at the landscape scale. This study highlights the necessity of systemic environmental policies that foster synergies among different administrative services involved in land management. The current sectoral (or "siloed") organisation levels remain a barrier to achieving land sustainability goals.

While LUCC simulations are designed to assist decision-makers in implementing sustainable policies, we examined whether our results effectively support local stakeholders in the Couesnon watershed. We conducted 14 public meetings involving nearly 150 participants, including farmers, policymakers, land and resource management professionals, and students. Surveys and interviews conducted during the meetings and 6 to 12 months later revealed that while scenario-based approaches can influence
decision-making, their impact requires time to materialize (Rigo and Houet 2023, Rigo et al. 2024). These findings underscore the need for further research and the importance of effectively communicating scientific insights to support the understanding, monitoring, and sustainable management of socio-ecological systems within the critical zone.

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2. doi</figcaption></figure>

Landscape connectivity maps for the Couesnon watershed in (a) 2018 (upper left) and predicted in 2050 with the FORESCEM framework for (b) the Business-as-usual, (c) Double performance, (d) Desert of cereals, (e) Energy performance and (f) Green attractiveness scenarios (from ).

Keywords

Land use and land cover changes scenarios, Land sustainability, Land policies, long
term Envrionnemental assessment

Presenting author

Thomas Houet

Presented at

ORAL
Conflicts of interest

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

**Disclaimer:** This article is (co-)authored by any of the Editors-in-Chief, Managing Editors or their deputies in this journal.

References

* Álvarez-Cabria M, Barquín J, Peñas F (2016) Modelling the spatial and seasonal variability of water quality for entire river networks: Relationships with natural and anthropogenic factors. Science of The Total Environment 152-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.109

* Boussard H, Meurice P, Baudry J (2020) Chloe - Landscape Metrics: a software for landscape pattern analysis. URL: https://www6.rennes.inrae.fr/bagap/PRODUCTIONS/Logiciels.

* Houet T, Palka G, Rigo R, Boussard H, Baudry J, Poux X, Narcy J, Alvarez Martinez José M, Balbi S, Mony C, Lecoq L, Beganton J, Barquin J (2022) European blue and green infrastructure network strategy vs. the common agricultural policy. Insights from an integrated case study (Couesnon, Brittany). Land Use Policy 120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106277

* Rigo R, Houet T (2023) Do Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios Support More Integrated Land Use Management? Land 12 (7). https://doi.org/10.3390/land12071414

* Rigo R, Houet T, Gonthier C (2024) Disseminating land use land cover change scenarios for improving the role of blue and green infrastructure: Evaluation and perspectives. Environmental Science & Policy 160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103821