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# Extreme Event Attribution in the Mediterranean

Aglaé Jézéquel, Davide Faranda, Philippe Drobinski, Piero Lionello

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Aglaé Jézéquel, Davide Faranda, Philippe Drobinski, Piero Lionello. Extreme Event Attribution in the Mediterranean. International Journal of Climatology, 2025, 10.1002/joc.8799. hal-04987959

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# Extreme Event Attribution in the Mediterranean

Aglaé Jézéquel<fnref n="1" />,² ID | Davide Faranda<fnref n="1" />,³,⁴ | Philippe Drobinski<fnref n="1" /> | Piero Lionello⁵

**Correspondence:** Aglaé Jézéquel (aglae.jezequel@lmd.ens.fr)

**Received:** 29 February 2024 | **Revised:** 23 October 2024 | **Accepted:** 11 February 2025

**Keywords:** attribution | climate change | extreme events | Mediterranean

## ABSTRACT

The Mediterranean basin is a hot spot of climate change in simulated scenarios, where effects are already observable. Increases in some climate extremes (terrestrial and marine heatwaves, agricultural droughts, extreme precipitation in some areas, and fire weather) are already observed. These extremes are expected to further increase in the future, together with more frequent pluvial and coastal floods, a reduction in cyclone and medicanes frequency (but increase of their maximum intensity) and increasing meteorological droughts. This review paper addresses methodological advances in the science of extreme event attribution, that is, techniques to better understand how much anthropogenic climate change affected the intensity, frequency and physical processes leading to observed extreme weather events, with a focus on studies in the Mediterranean basin.

## 1 | The Mediterranean, a Hot Spot of Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate

Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), substantial progress has been made in understanding changes in weather and climate extremes, providing a more robust foundation and enhanced regional insights for the first MedECC MAR1 and sixth IPCC AR6 assessments on weather and climate extremes (MedECC 2020; IPCC AR6 WGI FR—p. 1534). Recent evidence reinforces that climate change is increasingly impacting various systems and sectors in the Mediterranean region, with high confidence that it has exacerbated heatwaves and droughts (MedECC 2020; Ali et al. 2022). The AR6 report underscores the Mediterranean's vulnerability to climate change, emphasising significant risks and projecting higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and ongoing sea level rise, leading to drier, hotter conditions and coastal flooding (Cramer et al. 2018; Ali et al. 2022). Regional changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes are closely linked to global warming, and further increases in global temperatures can bring about statistically significant changes in extremes globally and for extensive regions. The likelihood of unprecedented extreme events will rise with

increasing global warming, including at the critical 1.5°C threshold (IPCC AR6 WGI FR—p. 1534). These trends in extremes are expected to continue in the future if anthropogenic global warming is not stopped. In this section, we present a literature review on observed and projected changes in the Mediterranean related to anthropogenic climate change. Table 1 sums up the general conclusions on the evolution of the frequency and intensity of major classes of extreme events attributable to climate change that we can draw from the literature review presented in this paper, for both observed changes and future projections.

### 1.1 | Observed Changes

Mediterranean climate change has been observed at a magnitude exceeding global means (Drobinski, Azzopardi, et al. 2020). The regional temperature increase is higher than the global mean temperature increase, with a peak at 1.9°C above 1950 temperature in 2022 (Figure 1a). This trend has been documented since the beginning of the 21st century, and it has accelerated since the 1980s reaching a value approximately 20% larger than the global average warming on an annual scale (Lionello and

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

© 2025 The Author(s). *International Journal of Climatology* published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.

<footnote n="1">¹LMD/IPSL, ENS, Université PSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France | ²Ecole Des Ponts, Marne-la-Vallée, France | ³Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL, CE Saclay l'Orme Des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France | ⁴London Mathematical Laboratory, London, UK | ⁵DiSTeBA—University of Salento, Lecce, Italy</footnote>
<table><caption>TABLE 1 | Summary of changes in extreme events in the Mediterranean basin extracted from the literature review exposed in this paper.</caption><thead><tr><td>Type of event</td><td>Observed changes and attributed trends</td><td>Projected changes</td><td>Example of attribution of an individual event</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Heatwaves</td><td>Increasing number of hot days, longer, more intense heatwaves (Efthymiadis et al. 2011), attributable to climate change (Clarke et al. 2022)</td><td>Increasing number of hot days, longer, more intense heatwaves (Molina et al. 2020, Lionello and Scarascia 2020)</td><td>The 2017 summer heatwave in Southern Europe was made at least 3 times more likely by anthropogenic climate change (Kew et al. 2019)</td></tr><tr><td>Cold Spells</td><td>Decreasing number of cold days, shorter, less intense cold spells attributable to climate change (Clarke et al. 2022)</td><td>Less intense, shorter and less frequent cold spells (Lionello and Scarascia 2020)</td><td>The April 2021 late cold spell in France was 1.2°C (0.75°C–1.7°C) warmer because of anthropogenic climate change (Vautard et al. 2023)</td></tr><tr><td>Droughts</td><td>Increase of frequency and severity of agricultural and hydrological droughts, attributable to climate change (Christidis and Stott 2022). No significant signal on meteorological droughts (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2021).</td><td>Increasing number of dry days, longer, more severe meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts, with uncertainty regarding the evolution of water management practices (Lionello and Scarascia 2020, Tramblay et al. 2021)</td><td>The 2007–2010 Syrian drought was made 2–3 times more likely by anthropogenic climate change (Kelley et al. 2015)</td></tr><tr><td>Extreme rainfall</td><td>Increase of intensity of extreme precipitation in Southern France (Ribes et al. 2019). Decrease of intensity of extreme precipitation in the majority of stations in Eastern Mediterranean (Mathbout et al. 2018)</td><td>Increase of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some areas of the north west Mediterranean (Scoccimarro et al. 2016, Zittis et al. 2021)</td><td>The 2014 extreme daily precipitation in the Cevennes (France) is estimated to be three times more likely than in 1950 with large uncertainties (Vautard et al. 2015)</td></tr><tr><td>Riverine and pluvial floods</td><td>Negative trend on extreme flood occurrence related to decrease in soil moisture (Tramblay et al. 2019)</td><td>Unclear signal (Roudier et al. 2016, Di Sante et al. 2021)</td><td>The 2010 Sava flood in Slovenia was caused by a combination of snow melt and heavy rain, and was enhanced by anthropogenic climate change within a 90% likely rain (Hirabayashi et al. 2021)</td></tr><tr><td>Cyclones and wind storms</td><td>Trends depending of periods and areas. Decrease in the number of cyclones (Flaounas et al. 2022) Negative/positive trends of cyclone frequency in spring/ summer and positive trends in summer (Lionello et al. 2016)</td><td>Decrease in the number of cyclones (Hochman et al. 2018, Reale et al. 2022)</td><td>The 2020 storm Alex in France and Italy is likely more persistent and intense, with higher precipitations than analogue events that have occurred before the recent global warming (Ginesta et al. 2023)</td></tr><tr><td>Medicanes</td><td>Lack of information (limited number of events) and lack of basin-wide high-resolution simulations</td><td>Decrease in number and increase in intensity (Romero and Emmanuel 2017)</td><td>The 2021 Medicane Apollo was unique in terms of circulation patterns compared to other observed events (Faranda et al. 2022)</td></tr><tr><td>Marine heatwaves</td><td>Widespread increase of surface temperature (Schuckmann et al. 2019; Pisano et al. 2020; Pastor et al. 2020; García-Monteiro et al. 2022) with inceasing heat waves (Martínez et al. 2023) and mass mortality events (Rivetti et al. 2014; Garrabou et al. 2022)</td><td>Increase in frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extension (Darmaraki et al. 2019)</td><td>No study so far</td></tr></tbody></table>

(Continues)
<table><caption>TABLE 1 | (Continued)</caption><thead><tr><th>Type of event</th><th>Observed changes and attributed trends</th><th>Projected changes</th><th>Example of attribution of an individual event</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Coastal floods</td><td>Decreasing trends (Letetrel et al. 2010, Raicich 2003, Jordà et al. 2012) but in Venice, where the impact of relative sea level rise is documented, Lionello et al. 2021)</td><td>More frequent floods and higher extreme water levels driven mostly by sea level rise (Vousdoukas et al. 2016; Lionello et al. 2017; Vousdoukas et al. 2017, Bevacqua et al. 2020)</td><td>No study so far</td></tr><tr><td>Wildfire</td><td>Increase of the risk of extreme fire weather (Carnicer et al. 2022), attributable to climate change (Barbero et al. 2020, Touma et al. 2021)</td><td>Increase of the risk of extreme fire weather (Touma et al. 2021, Carnicer et al. 2022)</td><td>In the absence of other drivers, anthropogenic climate change would have led to higher burned areas due to the 2017 wildfire in Portugal (Turco et al. 2019)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Scarascia 2018; Cherif et al. 2020). This rise in temperature is not homogeneous, with a higher temperature rise over land than the sea, and temperature differences going up to 3°C in mountainous regions between the recent period (1994–2023) and the past period (1950–1979) (Figure 1b). Significant sub-regional manifestations of the warming reveal local increases in mean annual temperatures over the same time span that range from 1.5°C to 4°C (Baldi et al. 2006; Kuglitsch et al. 2010; Lionello et al. 2012; Stéfanon et al. 2012; Cramer et al. 2018; Cherif et al. 2020).

The overall change in climatic conditions has resulted in more frequent and more intense heatwaves, with daily maximum temperatures continuously above 30°C–40°C and an increasing frequency of record-breaking heat waves observed in recent decades (Efthymiadis et al. 2011; Christidis et al. 2014; Russo et al. 2015; Vautard et al. 2018; Zittis et al. 2022). These changes are predominantly ascribed to human-caused climate change (Clarke et al. 2022), impacting seasonal cycles as well (Feng et al. 2022). While we are not aware of a regional assessment of changes in cold spells, there is a strong signal at the global scale of decrease in their intensity, duration and frequency, and this signal has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Clarke et al. 2022).

Observed past changes in seasonal and annual precipitation show trends depending on the areas and periods considered (Lionello et al. 2012; Cherif et al. 2020; Gutiérrez et al. 2021). For extreme precipitation, the sign and significance of observed trends are also location dependent. Based on daily precipitation data from 70 stations for the 1961–2012 period, Mathbout et al. (2018) find that decreasing trends are more frequent than increasing trends for extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean. Ribes et al. (2019) estimate an increase in annual maximum rainfall amount of +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) in the French Mediterranean area over the 1961–2015 period. It does not translate into a homogeneous trend in floods. In fact, Tramblay et al. (2019) find a negative trend in extreme flood annual occurrence, with a range in relative change between 0 and -0.5 for the majority of an ensemble of 171 basins located in southern France with a median record length of 45 years, likely caused by decreasing soil moisture (Bertola et al. 2021). Tramblay et al. (2023) add to these results that floods occur on average 1 month earlier and a

decrease in the proportion of floods associated with saturated soil moisture.

The historical evolution of droughts depends on the type of indices used. Due to high internal variability of precipitation, there is no significant trend in total precipitation (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2021) over the whole basin. There can be locally significant trends in both directions depending on the location and the season. Indeed, Caloiero et al. (2018) analyse trends in Standardise Precipitation Index (SPI), as defined in McKee et al. (1993), for the 1951–2016 period and find large negative trends over the Mediterranean basin on the annual scale compared to the seasonal scale, as well as differences in the sign and significance of the drying trends depending on the country and temporal scale. Additionally, there is a positive trend over the whole region in atmospheric evaporative demand (Stagge et al. 2017; Tramblay et al. 2020) which played a role in exacerbating the severity of the July 2016–June 2017 European drought (Garcia-Herrera et al. 2019). This trend translates to indices such as Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2014) and has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Christidis and Stott 2022). The IPCC also reports a significant increase in agricultural and hydrological droughts frequencies (Ali et al. 2022). The observed trends are not homogeneous over the whole basin. Even at the smaller scale of Southern France, Ruffault et al. (2013) find a significant increase of 30 days in agricultural drought duration in wetter regions, and no significant signal in drier regions for the 1971–2006 period.

This increase of dry and hot conditions also leads to an increased risk of wildfires, which is attributable to climate change in the Mediterranean (Abatzoglou et al. 2019; Barbero et al. 2020) as well as an enhanced risk of forest pests and parasites (Balzan et al. 2020). However, the relation between climate change and the occurrence of extreme events is complicated for wildfires, because suppression capabilities introduce a nonlinear relation between actual fire activity and fire weather-prone conditions, with a correlation emerging only in the last decades as a consequence of extremely high hazard levels (Carnicer et al. 2022). Touma et al. (2021) find that the risk of extreme fire weather conditions has increased by 50% compared to pre-industrial climate in the Mediterranean due
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**FIGURE 1** | (a) Time series of mean air temperature anomalies for the period 1950–2023 with respect to the period 1950–1979, for the Mediterranean Basin (red) and the globe (blue). Thicker lines show smoothing for a window of 10 years running moving average. (b) Spatial distribution of anomalies between the recent period (1994–2023) and the past period (1950–1979). Data are preprocessed by removing the seasonal cycle, computed by subtracting the calendar day average, at each grid point. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]</figcaption></figure>

to greenhouse gas emissions, although a part of the signal has been hidden by aerosols.

The Mediterranean basin and its unique geography provide an environment conducive to cyclogenesis (Petterssen 1956), including rare but very intense tropical-like cyclones, referred to as medicanes (Miglietta 2019). Mediterranean cyclones have different typologies and can lead to impactful wind extremes (Flaounas et al. 2022). Although some significant decreasing trends in the number of cyclones over the Mediterranean region have been found, local disparities exist. Flocas et al. (2010) detect a significant negative trend of -0.2 per decade in track frequency for the 1962–2001 period based on changes in winter months. This decrease affects the western Mediterranean basin and the Black Sea, while the number of cyclones has increased over the Levant region between 1957 and 2002 (Nissen et al. 2010). A study considering multiple cyclone detection methods and the period 1979–2008 revealed a significant negative trend in cyclone frequency in spring, a positive trend in summer, and no trend at an annual scale (Lionello et al. 2016). Finally, a recent study concludes that there are no significant trends in cyclone frequency at the Mediterranean scale the period 1950–2018 (Kotsias et al. 2023).

In the sea, the surface temperature (SST) time series indicates a trend of approximately 0.040°C/year during the period 1982–2019, with a higher increase in the eastern part of the basin compared to the western part, and stronger warming in summer compared to winter (Schuckmann et al. 2019; Pisano et al. 2020; Pastor et al. 2020; García-Monteiro et al. 2022), driving a corresponding increase of marine heat waves (Martínez et al. 2023) and affecting the surface mixed layer (Rivetti et al. 2017). Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean have been shown to lead to mass mortality events of marine organisms (Rivetti et al. 2014; Garrabou et al. 2022).

Assessments of past changes in marine wave extreme heights are based almost exclusively on hindcast studies (De Leo et al. 2020; Barbariol et al. 2021; Caloiero et al. 2022; Elshinnawy and Antolínez 2023; and Amarouche et al. 2022), which exhibit spatially contrasting signs, a majority of non-significant trends, but with more positive than negative significant values, particularly in the gulf of Lyons and north Tyrrhenian Sea (De Leo et al. 2023). The values of significant wave height trends of the highermost considered percentiles suggested by different studies are in the range of tens of centimetres per century, exceptionally above 1 m per century in a single study (Barbariol et al. 2021) and reaching
2–3 m for the increase in significant wave height maxima in the northwestern Mediterranean (Amarouche et al. 2022). Long-term in situ observations are limited to the Northern Adriatic and show a decrease in the significant wave height 90th percentile (Pomaro et al. 2017) that is not reproduced by model simulations, which, however, consider higher percentiles.

Long observational time series allowing estimates of long-term variation of storm surges are limited to few locations. In Marseille, the height of storm surges has decreased from values around 120 cm at the end of 19th century to 80 cm in the first decade of the 21st century (Letetrel et al. 2010). In Trieste, the frequency of sea level positive extremes is substantially stable because of a compensation between sea level rise and decreasing frequency of storm surges (Raicich 2003). Analogously, in Venice, actual sea level extremes have been increasing at a rate of 2.5 mm per year since 1900, but the trend disappears if the effect of relative sea level rise is subtracted (Lionello et al. 2021). Hindcasts show a generalised decrease of the sea level 99th percentiles, with a reduction of 20% in the western Mediterranean and the Adriatic sea and 10% elsewhere for the 1998–2008 period compared to 1958–1997 (Jordà et al. 2012), which becomes a more complex pattern if 50-year return values are considered, with significant negative trends of around 2% per year in the Gulf of Sirte and of Gabes and positive trends of around 1.5% per year in the eastern areas of the Levantine basin (Cid et al. 2016).

## 1.2 | Future Projections

The majority of the 21st century climate scenarios performed for the last 20 years in various international model intercomparison projects, including downscaling experiments, have shown that, due to its particular combination of multiple strong climate hazards and high vulnerability, the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for highly interconnected climate risks (Giorgi 2006; Cramer et al. 2018; MedECC 2020; IPCC 2022). Climate projections agree that temperatures will increase virtually everywhere, and in most places, so will rainfall, in part because warmer air can carry more water vapour. However, the Mediterranean basin is one major exception, which shows the greatest future decline of projected rainfall of any landmass on Earth. This regional decrease in average precipitation, with a peak signal in summer, is simulated with both atmosphere-ocean Global Climate Models (GCM) (Lionello and Scarascia 2018; Cos et al. 2022; Seker and Gumus 2022), atmosphere-only Regional Climate Models (Zittis et al. 2019; Cherif et al. 2020) and coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Models (RCM) (Somot et al. 2008; Ruti et al. 2016; Conte et al. 2020).

In agreement with what is observed elsewhere in the world, there is a high confidence that heat extremes will increase in both intensity, duration and frequency, with an amplification for higher levels of global warming, in accordance with the already significant observed trend (Molina et al. 2020; Lionello and Scarascia 2020; Ali et al. 2022). For example, for a global increase of +4°C, models project the frequency of warm nights (TN90p) to reach between 65% and 78% in the Northern Mediterranean and between 72% and 86% in the Southern Mediterranean (Lionello and Scarascia 2020). Heatwaves have been shown and projected to lead to a spike in excess deaths in different Mediterranean

countries such as France (Mitchell et al. 2016), Egypt (Mitchell 2016), and Israel (Wedler et al. 2023). The projected signal is opposite for cold spells with less intense, shorter and less frequent events, with the percentage of cold days (TX10p) projected to be less than 1% for a +4°C climate (Lionello and Scarascia 2020), although it is noteworthy that there are fewer dedicated studies on the influence of climate change on cold spells.

There is less confidence in the evolution of the frequency and intensity of both dry and wet extreme events over the Mediterranean regions. Tramblay and Somot (2018) have shown contrasted trends in heavy rainfall in future projections, with significant increasing trends in northern catchments, locally reaching up to +20% for the multi-model mean by the end of the century for RCP8.5 and conversely decreasing trends in Southern catchments, locally reaching up to -20% for the multi-model mean by the end of the century for RCP8.5, with, for most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends before the year 2000. This geographical contrast is confirmed by other studies (Myhre et al. 2019; Lionello and Scarascia 2020; Conte et al. 2020; Sun et al. 2021; Zittis et al. 2021; Li et al. 2021). The physical link between trends in heavy precipitation and climate change has been inferred as the increase in the capacity of the atmosphere to store water vapour with temperature according to the Clausius-Clapeyron law (C-C, 7%$^{\circ}$C$^{-1}$) (Drobinski, Alonzo, et al. 2016). Vautard et al. (2015) and Drobinski et al. (2018) have shown that the evolution of the intensity of extreme rainfall on the northern rim of the Mediterranean basin in a warming climate is mainly controlled by this quantity and is therefore expected to increase by about 7%$^{\circ}$C$^{-1}$. This is also consistent with Scoccimarro et al. (2016). Considering 50-year return values, Zittis et al. (2021) project a strong increase, locally up to 100%, extending to the whole Mediterranean region for 2051–2100 compared to 1951–2000. Projections of flood risks vary depending on the regions studied and the models used, with Roudier et al. (2016) finding an increase in flood risks in Europe below 60°N for a 2°C scenario and Di Sante et al. (2021) finding a decrease in flood risks based on a different group of models.

Droughts would potentially increase in frequency and severity in the future (Lelieveld et al. 2012; Paxian et al. 2015; Zappa et al. 2015; López-Franca et al. 2015; Pascale et al. 2016; Hertig and Tramblay 2017; Rajczak and Schär 2017; Raymond et al. 2019; Drobinski, Da Silva, et al. 2020; Lionello and Scarascia 2020). Different challenges for assessing drought trends are posed by their complex typology (meteorological, agricultural and hydrological, see Tramblay et al. 2020). There are large uncertainties in drought projection (Kirtman et al. 2013; Collins et al. 2013) as, at times, substantial disagreements are found between meteorological drought trends in the climate projection ensemble and observations (Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013; Knutson and Zeng 2018) with, however, improving robustness in most recent projections (Eyring et al. 2016). There is also a documented correlation between heatwaves and droughts that should lead to an increase in hot and dry events in drying regions, such as the Mediterranean (Bevacqua et al. 2022).

Wind extremes, both high and low, can also lead to major impacts in the Mediterranean. The projections of the high wind speeds over land in the Mediterranean generally predict wind stilling between 1961–1990 and the 2071–2100 periods
(Beniston et al. 2007; Rockel and Woth 2007; Drobinski, Alpert, et al. 2016). The frequency of Mediterranean cyclones is projected to decrease by approximately 25% in a RCP8.5 scenario in winter (Zappa et al. 2015) and by up to 50% by the end of the century on an annual time scale (Reale et al. 2022), with an increase of wind speed and precipitation rate in the Central part of the Mediterranean basin and a decrease in the Southeastern part (Zappa et al. 2015; Hochman et al. 2018; Reale et al. 2022). Although there is an overall decreasing signal for the Mediterranean, in specific areas such as the Levant region and near Morocco, cyclone occurrence might increase in the future (Nissen et al. 2014). For medicanes, due to their very low number (one or two by year), it is harder to detect significant trends, but projections tend to find a decreasing number and an increase in intensity (Cavicchia et al. 2014; Romero and Emanuel 2013, 2017). On the other hand, low wind extremes can have an impact on air quality (e.g., Vautard et al. 2018) and on renewable energy supply (van der Wiel et al. 2019; Rapella et al. 2023). Ali et al. (2022) document a high confidence in a decrease in mean wind speed for high-level global warming in the Northwest, Southwest and Southeast of the Mediterranean, with a medium confidence in an increase in the Northeast of the Mediterranean. Koletsis et al. (2016) also project, for a moderate climate forcing scenario, a decrease in offshore wind speed of the order of—0.3 m s⁻¹ between the 2021–2050 and 1961–1990 periods over most of the Mediterranean sea, which can up to double for some models by 2061–2100.

Changes in wind speed and cyclones will affect marine storminess, namely ocean waves and coastal floods. Concerning ocean wave extremes, a moderate decrease is expected with few sparse subregional exceptions (Kapelonis et al. 2015; Lionello et al. 2017; De Leo et al. 2021). For the A1B high emission scenario, Lionello et al. (2017) suggest an overall decrease of significant wave height maxima along the Mediterranean coastline, particularly along the coast of the Middle East and West-North Africa with a reduction of about 7% by the mid-21st century. Kapelonis et al. (2015) confirm the decrease of extremes for the central part of the Mediterranean, particularly for the northwest basin, where the 100-year return value could decrease by 4 m at the end of the 21st century, with smaller or no change in other basins. The overall decrease is further confirmed by De Leo et al. (2021) who estimate a decrease of about 25 cm averaged over the whole basin at the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 very high emission scenario. The analyses of projections are not consistent with the trends emerging from hindcast studies. Reasons for this have not been clarified yet.

The maxima of the meteorologically induced storm surges an event is attributed to climate change when its frequency and/ or intensity is/are modified in a significant way by anthropogenic climate change are expected generally to decrease by up to 5%, with 50 and 100-year return values possibly increasing only in some areas such as the Alboran, the south Tyrrhenian, the Adriatic and the Aegean Seas (Conte and Lionello 2013; Androulidakis, et al. 2015; Vousdoukas et al. 2016; Lionello et al. 2017; Vousdoukas et al. 2017; Bevacqua et al. 2020). However, these changes are expected to play a minor role in coastal floods, as there is a consensus that future sea level rise will increase their frequency and level at basin scale (e.g., Buchanan et al. 2017; Taherkhani et al. 2020; Lionello et al. 2021).

Finally, some extreme events have a very high impact on Mediterranean ecosystems. While the frequency and impacts of wildfires depend on many other variables than the weather, especially human management (Brotons et al. 2013), several studies show that climate change tends to increase the frequency of types of weather favourable to the development of wildfires in the Mediterranean (Bedia et al. 2014; Turco et al. 2014; Touma et al. 2021; Guion et al. 2022). For example, Ruffault et al. (2020) project an increase in the frequency of heat-induced fire-weather by 14% by the end of the century (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 30% under the RCP8.5 for the full region. Marine ecosystems will also be affected by marine heat-waves, which are projected to increase in frequency (0.3–0.4 events per year for every period of RCP4.5/RCP8.5), intensity (with an additional +3.6°C in SST₉₉Q multi-model mean by the end of the century with RCP8.5 compared to the historical period), and duration (3 months longer in RCP8.5 by the end of the century) in the 21st century according to regional climate models (Darmaraki et al. 2019). In the future, unless there is a significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions, increased extremes are expected to pose a high health risk for the Mediterranean populations (Linares et al. 2020).

In addition to those general findings regarding the influence of climate change on class of events, an additional question, often raised by journalists, is the role climate change played in affecting the intensity and frequency of singular observed events. This field of climate science is called 'extreme event attribution' (EEA) and a specific focus on the Mediterranean Basin is provided hereafter.

## 2 | Review of EEA Methods

EEA is a relatively new field of climate science, the concept of which was first theorised by Allen (2003). The original idea is to compare the probability or the intensity of an observed event in the factual world, that is, the world as we know it, with anthropogenic forcing, to its probability or intensity in a counterfactual world, that is, a version of the world that could have been without human-induced climate change. An event is attributed to climate change when its frequency and/or intensity is/are modified in a significant way between the factual and counterfactual worlds. These two different climate states can be estimated using two distinct periods either from observation or reanalysis datasets (e.g., Jézéquel et al. 2018; Oldenborgh et al. 2021; Faranda et al. 2022) or from climate models (e.g., Robin and Ribes 2020; Lewis and Karoly 2013; Sun et al. 2014). They can also be based on model runs with fixed climate conditions, reproducing the same conditions (green-house gas concentration, land-use and sea surface temperature) as the observed event on the one hand, and pre-industrial climate on the other hand (e.g., Pall et al. 2011; Massey et al. 2015; Haustein et al. 2016; Guillod et al. 2017). The results of EEA studies are typically presented either as risk ratios, that is, the probability $p_1$ that the event happened in the factual world divided by the probability $p_0$ that the event happened in the counterfactual world, or as fractions of attributable risks (FAR), that is, $p_1-p_0$ divided by $p_1$ (Stott et al. 2016). The calculation of these probabilities and of their uncertainties relies mostly on extreme value theory (Naveau et al. 2020). The first approach to EEA, that is, to
compare probabilities or intensities of an extreme weather event in these two worlds, has been labelled the risk-based approach.

Trenberth et al. (2015) and Shepherd (2016) propose a different approach, called the storyline approach. Their argument is that high uncertainties regarding the influence of climate change on atmospheric circulation (Shepherd 2014) can hide climate change signals. They hence advocate to disentangle the influence of climate change on the various physical processes leading to the observed event. This applies in particular to high precipitation events. Meredith et al. (2015) provide an example of this approach for a precipitation extreme over the Black Sea. They reproduce the same convective extreme using a nudging technique with different sea surface temperatures and find that ‘simulated precipitation increased by more than 300% relative to simulations with SSTs characteristic of the early 1980s’. Analogue techniques are other tools to disentangle dynamical and thermodynamic processes (Vautard et al. 2016; Yiou et al. 2017; Jézéquel et al. 2018).

While there is some debate within the community over which approach is best suited to analyse observed events and inform different audiences about how climate change influenced them (e.g., Trenberth et al. 2015; Otto et al. 2016), most EEA scientists agree that both approaches are complementary, answer different questions and can even be combined (Jézéquel et al. 2018; Lloyd and Oreskes 2018; Lloyd and Shepherd 2020; Qian et al. 2022; Shepherd 2016). A visual summary of the different approaches can be found in Figure 1 of Qian et al. (2022).

It is noteworthy that for the same event, EEA results can differ quantitatively and sometimes even qualitatively, as was shown for the Russian 2010 heatwave (Dole et al. 2011; Rahmstorf and Coumou 2011; Otto et al. 2012). These differences can stem from different choices of event definition, as explored by Cattiaux and Ribes (2018). They assess the influence on the FAR of the spatiotemporal definition of the event, namely its spatial and temporal extent, for both the 2003 Western European heatwave and the Boulder intense rainfall of September 2013. The results can also be affected by different definitions of the counterfactual (Schaller et al. 2016; Hauser et al. 2016), and by different framings of the attribution question (Otto 2023; Otto et al. 2012; Zhai et al. 2018).

Results may also vary from one model to another, as well as the types of models used. Many attribution studies rely on atmospheric general circulation models forced by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST), such as the weather@home ensemble (Massey et al. (2015); Haustein et al. (2016); Guillod et al. 2017). While the computational time to run such models is lower, Dong et al. (2017) have shown that attribution results can vary between coupled and uncoupled models, especially for extreme precipitation. Fischer et al. (2018) also find that SST-prescribed models have a warm bias for temperature extremes in the Tropics and in Australia. Finally, bias correction of models also affects the computation of FARs, as shown by Bellprat et al. (2019).

In recent years, EEA has developed in several directions: new statistical tools, a broader scope of event types, affected regions, and attribution of impacts of extreme events. Ribes et al. (2019) proposed a method of spatial aggregation to study extreme precipitation events over the French Mediterranean area. These types of events are very local, and spatial aggregation allows

one to treat all the observed occurrences in a given region with similar physical processes as one type of event. They find significant positive trends in both the frequency and intensity of those events. Robin and Ribes (2020) developed a non-stationary extreme value theory based on observations and coupled models. Zscheischler and Lehner (2022) introduced a bivariate definition of the FAR allowing one to compute EEA results for compound events (Zscheischler et al. 2017, 2020). The development of deep learning and machine learning techniques also opens up new opportunities for EEA (Salcedo-Sanz et al. 2024). For extremes driven by convection, the development of convection permitting ensembles that can help reproduce extreme precipitation events is a promising tool (Coppola et al. 2020). In parallel, a part of the EEA community has developed protocols for fast-track attribution (Philip et al. 2020; Oldenborgh et al. 2021; Tradowsky et al. 2023), along with some interest from institutions such as Copernicus C3S to build operational EEA services (C3S 2024).

While early attribution studies mostly focused on heat extremes and precipitation extremes, there are more and more studies addressing more complex events, such as wildfires (e.g., Barbero et al. 2020; Kirchmeier-Young et al. 2019; Oldenborgh et al. 2021), marine heatwaves (Laufkötter et al. 2020), and hurricanes (Wehner et al. 2019; Reed et al. 2020, 2022).

Another challenge for EEA is to move from attribution of hazard to attribution of their impacts. There are still few studies doing that as they necessitate understanding and modelling the hazard-impact relationship. This is tricky as this relationship is often not linear and is highly dependent on vulnerability and exposure (see van der Wiel et al. (2020) for a demonstration that high impacts and high hazards are not equivalent). For example, one can use hydrological models to attribute floods rather than high precipitation (Schaller et al. 2016; Wehner and Sampson 2021; Smiley et al. 2022). Mitchell et al. (2016) attribute excess mortality related to the 2003 European heatwave, using a transfer function between temperature and excess mortality. Transfer functions based on observed impact data can also help to quantify and attribute economic costs of extreme weather events, as demonstrated by Frame, Rosier, et al. (2020) for extreme rainfall and drought in New Zealand and by Frame, Wehner, et al. (2020) for Hurricane Harvey. The interpretability of such studies is not straightforward, as high impacts stem from specific conditions surrounding the observed event that may not be correctly reproduced within EEA studies that consider classes of events rather than the exact event (Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. 2022).

## 3 | EEA Studies in the Mediterranean

In recent years, attribution studies on climate extreme events in the Mediterranean Basin have garnered increased attention, driven by the region's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The Mediterranean Basin, characterised by its complex geography and intricate bathymetry, stands as a unique setting that facilitates the occurrence of distinct climate events. As explained in Section 1, this region, undergoing rapid warming, is progressively susceptible to a diverse range of extreme weather conditions. Notably, the intricate interplay between extratropical cyclones, the almost enclosed sea, and mountainous terrains
creates specific conditions for high-impact weather phenomena such as medicanes and extreme precipitation events known as ‘épisodes cévenols’ in France and ‘libecciate’ in Italy.

Employing the conditional attribution methodology introduced in Faranda et al. (2022), several extreme weather events affecting the Mediterranean and driven by weather systems have been analysed. These include the winter storm Filomena, causing heavy snowfall and extremely cold conditions in Spain; the late winter cold spell in April 2021 in France with substantial impacts on vegetation and agriculture; record-breaking temperatures during the August Mediterranean heatwave and associated wildfires in Greece and Italy; the September Po Valley tornado outbreak; and the Medicane Apollo, causing severe flooding in Sicily in October. In Ginesta et al. (2023), a more detailed attribution of the Alex extratropical cyclone, impacting the south of France in 2020, was performed. Most of the extreme events investigated with this method are significantly modified in the present climate with respect to the past because of changes in the location, persistence and/or seasonality of cyclonic/anticyclonic patterns in the sea-level pressure analogues. Medicane Apollo appears to be a black swan of the atmospheric circulation, with poor-quality analogues. The utility of these analogues has been extended for detecting trends in the frequency of extreme events (Faranda, Messori, Jezequel et al. 2023) and attributing the 2022 Euro-Mediterranean drought (Faranda, Pascale, et al. 2023). This framework has also been applied to assess the impact of human-driven climate change on Mediterranean clones affecting the city of Venice, allowing for an evaluation of the efficacy of adaptation strategies against flooding events in the city (Faranda, Ginesta, et al. 2023). Fery and Faranda (2023, in review) represent an initial step towards using analogues for the attribution of derechos (large-scale convective systems), such as the one that affected Corsica in August 2022.

In addition to peer-reviewed literature, there is a growing body of scientific initiatives for the rapid attribution to climate change of extreme events in the Mediterranean area. They are tailored towards general audience and the media with a goal to inform discussions about extreme weather events in a changing climate. In contrast with peer reviewed literature they are meant to be published quickly after the event, with simplified results that are easier to interpret for non-scientists. The World Weather Attribution (Otto 2023) initiative involves international scientists quantifying how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. They have performed several attribution studies, including heatwaves in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria in April 2023, deemed ‘almost impossible without climate change’; the European heatwave in July 2023, found to be ‘much more likely’ due to climate change; the 2022 Euro-Mediterranean drought identified as ‘more likely’ due to climate change; torrential rain across Mediterranean countries in September 2023, attributed to the ‘interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure, and vulnerability’; and a cold spell in 2021 where ‘human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing period frost in France’.

Another rapid attribution consortium, ClimaMeter (Faranda, et al. 2024), an international effort for rapid attribution conditioned to atmospheric circulation, has analysed recent extreme

events in the Mediterranean. These include heatwaves such as the July Cerberus Heatwave, the late August French Heatwave and the October 2023 Heatwave, all revealing a strong signal of human-driven climate change. Mediterranean depressions Rea and Elias, and Medicane Daniel in Summer-Autumn 2023 were found to be driven by an interplay of human-driven climate change and natural variability. Medicane Daniel was a unique event with destructive potential enhanced by human-driven climate change and a cold spell. We display an example of ClimaMeter's product in Figure 2 for Medicane Daniel. The two gauges on the top row are designed for communication to the general audience. The snowstorm Ciro, whose strong winds affected the North of Italy, was mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change. The list of rapid attribution studies targeting the Mediterranean region provided here is far from exhaustive, and it is rapidly evolving with growing interest from the scientific community, media, and other stakeholders for such reports on their website https://www.worldweather attribution.org/ and https://www.climameter.org/. As a caveat, to our knowledge, while rapid attribution results have been shared by general media, there is no evidence on the way these results influence public opinion and decision makers. There is also a lack of studies comparing the results of rapid attribution to more in-depth attribution of the same events.

Figure 3 compiles EEA found on the Carbon brief atlas of attribution studies (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/), recent studies from WWA, studies from Climameter, studies from the BAMS ‘Explaining Extreme Events of the previous year’ series of special issues, as well as studies found from a systematic Google scholar search for the words extreme + attribution + climate + change + country, for each country of the Mediterranean basin. We voluntarily excluded studies that cover a large part of the region, as the goal of this map is to list attribution studies applied to specific countries, to highlight the disparity in coverage from one country to another. We note that excluding continental scale studies filters mainly heatwaves (e.g., Cattiaux and Yiou 2012; Dong et al. 2014; Vautard et al. 2020; Garderen et al. 2021; Christidis and Stott 2022) and droughts (Hauser et al. 2017; Acosta Navarro et al. 2019; Garcia-Herrera et al. 2019; Christidis and Stott 2021), as these types of events typically affect larger regions than other types of extreme events. Some studies give several separate assessments for different countries, cities and/or events, in which case they were included and counted several times. In the case of studies focusing on a small group of countries (Iberian Peninsula (Barriopedro et al. 2020; Sippel et al. 2018), Southern Levant (Bergaoui et al. 2015), Italy and France for storm Alex (Ginesta et al. 2023), and extreme heat in April 2023 in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria (WWA 2023), we positioned the event symbol on the border between countries.

Figure 3 highlights a disparity between the number of studies in the Northern and Southern sides of the Mediterranean Sea, with a focus of attribution studies in the Iberian Peninsula, in France and in Italy. We found no EEA study in some countries. Most attribution studies focus on heatwaves, which are the easier events to attribute to climate change. The second most studied type of events is heavy precipitation. This map highlights a need for more studies in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries as well as more diverse types of events. To our knowledge,
ClimaMeter for Medicane Daniel
10-Sep-2023 to 11-Sep-2023

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

LSCE-IPSL
www.ipsl.fr

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

www.climameter.org
© davide.faranda@cea.fr

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

**FIGURE 2** | ClimaMeter analysis for Medicane Daniel. The top row of the figure consists of two gauge charts. The left-hand-side one indicates the respective roles of natural variability and climate change in explaining the changes detected. The right-hand-side gauge indicated the rarity of the surface-pressure pattern of the event. The second row provides visual representations of the surface pressure anomalies of the event and of the hazard variables, that is, temperature, precipitation and wind-speed. The third row provides maps of the composite differences between analogues in the 'past' (1979–2000) and 'present' (2000–2021) periods. The last row reports the seasonality of the analogues in each period (left panel), and detected changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed in three major urban areas within the analysis domain (right panel). See the ClimaMeter website full report available at https://www.climameter.org/20230910-11-medicane-daniels-landfall for more details (republished with permission). [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

there is no EEA study on an observed marine extreme in the Mediterranean Sea.

4 | What Can We Learn From EEA Studies in the Mediterranean?

Our examination of weather extreme events in the Mediterranean basin has brought to light the influence of climate change, accentuating the occurrence of extreme events in this region. The

Mediterranean, shaped by its specific geography, serves as a stage for specific weather phenomena. Notably, the emergence of medicanes stands as a prominent example, their dynamics intricately intertwined with the geographical features of mountains and bathymetry. The Mediterranean is also one of the regions in the world with a significant observed trend in agricultural droughts.

The Mediterranean experiences a spectrum of distinctive weather events, including high precipitation phenomena such
<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>**FIGURE 3** | Map of extreme event attribution studies applied to specific countries or neighbouring countries in the Mediterranean for different types of events. Each symbol represents a single study (one article or report can include several studies for different events, or attribution of the same event applied to a specific country, in which case they are all indicated separately on the map). When several studies (number n) have been done for the same type of events in the same country, it is indicated by a xn next to the event symbol. The earlier event included is the Syrian 2007–2010 drought studied by Kelley et al. 2015 and the latest event is the Libyan flood that occurred on September 11, 2023, attributed by both Climameter and WWA. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>**FIGURE 4** | Map of the location of GHCN stations provided by https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily and ECA&D stations measuring the temperature provided by https://knmi-ecad-assets-prd.s3.amazonaws.com/download/stations.txt in the Mediterranean region. Both lists of stations were extracted on August 21, 2024. For visualisation purpose blue dots overlay red dots. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]</figcaption></figure>

as ‘épisodes cévenols’ in France or ‘libecciate’ in Italy. These events, characterised by intense and localised rainfall, add another layer of complexity to the Mediterranean’s atmospheric patterns. Moreover, the region is not immune to events also affecting other regions, such as heatwaves, marine heatwaves and cold spells, further contributing to the diverse array of

weather extremes that unfold against the backdrop of its unique geography.

In essence, the Mediterranean becomes a crucible where climate change amplifies the intricacies of its weather dynamics, showcasing an array of phenomena that go beyond the conventional
expectations of a temperate climate. This heightened complexity underscores the need for comprehensive studies to unravel the nuances of how climate change shapes and interacts with the specific geography of the Mediterranean basin, thereby deepening our understanding of its evolving atmospheric patterns.

This complexity is heightened by inequities in resources to study climate change between countries located in the Northern part of the Mediterranean, compared to the Eastern and Southern parts. This inequity is first apparent in the quality and quantity of observational data. Figure 4 displays the locations of the current GHCN stations in the Mediterranean region (Menne et al. 2012) and ECA&D temperature stations (Klein Tank et al. 2002). As reanalysis datasets are known to be poor at reproducing some types of extreme events (Hu and Franzke 2020; Lei et al. 2022; Zarrin and Dadashi-Roudbari 2022), this means that options to produce reliable EEA in countries with little station data are limited.

This review also adds to a growing corpus documenting the uneven distribution of research between developed countries and the rest of the world. Our findings at a regional scale echo conclusions reached at the global scale by Huggel et al. (2016) and Clarke et al. (2022). Rich developed countries have dominated attribution studies, leaving the Southern and Eastern sides of the Mediterranean relatively overlooked. For climate science as a whole, Pasgaard et al. (2015) display how this discrepancy applies to both the regions studied and the location of the authors affiliation, with a number of studies on developing countries with no locally based authors. Similar findings on literature from the 1993 to 2003 period show that this is a long-standing issue with little progress (Karlsson et al. 2007). This inequity is also clear in the distribution of funding for climate change research. Overland et al. (2021) find that from 1990 to 2020, only 3.8% of these funds are spent on African topics, of which African institutions only received 14,5%. Building a more inclusive, just, and representative global climate research landscape is, however, non-trivial. For example, Yamineva (2017) shows how the efforts of the IPCC to include voices from the South did not guarantee active participation due to both practical obstacles (e.g., lack of remuneration, visa issues, language difficulties) and political unbalance of power. Goodwill and programs to encourage technology transfer and capacity building are not enough to bridge disparities. Evaluation of such programs, including their practical aspects, addressing what is effectively blocking exchanges and growth for researchers from the South, is needed too. Collaborative research projects should also account for issues of equity, such as who decides the research agenda, who collects benefits and who is responsible for which task (Dodsworth 2019), and work on the mindsets and assumptions that shape these collaborations, as well as on their metrics of success (Harvey et al. 2022).

This ethical problem is all the more pressing as there have been discussions around the role of extreme weather events in the rise of political tensions and conflicts in both the Eastern and Southern parts of the Mediterranean (Schilling et al. 2020). For example, some papers theorise that climate change, through its impact on droughts, played a part in the rise of food prices that preceded the Arab spring (Johnstone and Mazo 2011; Perez and Wire 2013). Similarly, some papers argue that the drought that

preceded the Syrian civil war played a role (Gleick 2014; Werrell et al. 2015) and that this drought was made more likely because of anthropogenic climate change (Kelley et al. 2015). However, other articles argue that the evidence is not solid enough to conclude that neither the drought nor climate change was to blame (Fröhlich 2016; Selby et al. 2017). Ribot et al. (2020) address similar criticism to the framing of African migrants to Europe as 'climate refugees' as this type of framing tends to make invisible the diverse social and political issues these migrants flee. This calls for a better understanding of what can and what cannot be attributed to climate change, especially as the science of EEA moves forward from extreme weather attribution to extreme impacts attribution (e.g., Mengel et al. 2021). Further work on communication on such studies and their impact on public perception of climate change is also needed (Jézéquel et al. 2020).

Looking ahead, the Mediterranean basin remains a focal point for climate research and broader societal, geopolitical, and environmental considerations. Understanding and addressing these intricacies is a collective responsibility, ensuring that our comprehension of the Mediterranean's climate is as diverse as the region itself.

## Author Contributions

**Aglaé Jézéquel:** conceptualization, writing – review and editing, writing – original draft, supervision. **Davide Faranda:** writing – original draft, writing – review and editing. **Philippe Drobinski:** writing – original draft, writing – review and editing, investigation. **Piero Lionello:** writing – review and editing.

## Acknowledgements

The authors thank Yves Tramblay and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive feedback on our article. A. J. and D. F. have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101003469 (XAIDA) and from state aid managed by the National Research Agency under France 2030 bearing the references ANR-22-EXTR-0005 (TRACCS-PC4-EXTENDING project). D. F. acknowledges the COST Action FutureMed CA22162, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). P. L. acknowledges the financial support of ICSC-Centro Nazionale di Ricerca in High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing, funded by European Union–Next Generation EU Project code CN_00000033, CUP C83C22000560007.

## Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

## Data Availability Statement

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

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