# The walking dead Euler equation. Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

Aurélien Poissonnier

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Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2015 / 01

# The walking dead Euler equation
## Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

Aurélien POISSONNIER

Document de travail

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

Série des documents de travail
de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G 2015 / 01

The walking dead Euler equation
Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

Aurélien POISSONNIER*

JANVIER 2015

Ce document de travail s'inscrit dans un projet plus large d'étude de l'équation d'Euler sur la consommation. L'auteur remercie Behzad Diba pour ses commentaires et axes de recherche sur une version préliminaire ; Édouard Challe pour sa direction au-delà des frontières de ce travail ; Xavier Ragot pour sa discussion particulièrement enrichissante et les participants au séminaire du département des études économiques de l'Insee (Paris, 2013) ainsi que du séminaire du laboratoire de macroéconomie du Crest (Paris, 2013) pour leurs nombreuses questions et suggestions.

<footnote>* Département des Études Économiques - Division « Études Macroéconomiques» Timbre G220 - 15, bd Gabriel Péri - BP 100 - 92244 MALAKOFF CEDEX
Crest-LMA & École Polytechnique</footnote>
# The walking dead Euler equation
## Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

**Abstract**

Despite some strong cases built against it, the Euler equation on consumption remains a cornerstone of monetary policy models.

In this paper I test the representative household's consumption-savings trade-off in two original directions. I first use households' specific interest rates for both US and France. These rates have a better explanatory power of the representative consumer's behaviour than the monetary policy rate. I also use a less restrictive approach to measure households' expectations based on survey data.

However, the challenge posed by the Euler equation to monetary policy models remains.

**Keywords:** Euler equation, consumption

## L'équation d'Euler est morte, vive l'équation d'Euler !

**Résumé**

Malgré des éléments à charge conséquents, l'équation d'Euler sur la consommation reste une des briques élémentaires des modèles de politique monétaire.

Dans cet article je teste l'arbitrage consommation-épargne du ménage représentatif dans deux directions nouvelles. J'utilise des taux d'intérêt spécifiques aux ménages pour les États-Unis et la France. Ces taux améliorent la description du comportement de l'agent représentatif comparativement au taux de la politique monétaire. Je mesure également différemment les anticipations des ménages à partir d'enquêtes de conjoncture.

Malgré cela, le challenge posé par l'équation d'Euler aux modèles de politique monétaire reste entier.

**Mots-clés :** équation d'Euler, consommation

**Classification JEL :** E21, D91
# Introduction

The Euler equation on consumption is a cornerstone of monetary policy models. In the permanent income hypothesis, when households are assumed to be rational, their consumption scheme should verify the following equation:

$$1 = \beta E_t \left( \frac{U_c(t+1)}{U_c(t)} \frac{1+i_t}{\Pi_{t+1}} \right) \quad (1)$$

where $U_c(t)$ is the marginal utility of consumption at time $t$, $i$ is the nominal interest rate at which households can lend and borrow and $\Pi$ the inflation rate of consumption prices. $E_t$ is the expectation operator describing how households form their expectations over future variables at time $t$.

Since Hall (1978), macroeconomic data have been confronted to economic theory repeatedly leading to successive refutations, validations and improvements in households' consumption models. Early papers, surveyed by Attanasio (1999), have investigated the properties of consumption within this framework under the assumption of constant real interest rate and often certainty equivalence. Many alternative utility functions have been used to reconcile consumption data with the permanent-income hypothesis and understand some major stylized facts. Mankiw (1982), and Bernanke (1985) study the specificities of durables consumption. Abel (1990) and Gali (1994) investigate the equity premium puzzle by modifying the utility function. Campbell and Mankiw (1990) consider a population with only a fraction of households following the model, while others, financially constrained, consume their current income in each period. Flavin (1981) investigates the *excess sensitivity puzzle*, that is consumption reacting to lagged changes in income. Campbell and Deaton (1989) investigate the *excess smoothness puzzle*, that is consumption not responding one-to-one to shocks to permanent income.

Relaxing the constant interest rate hypothesis Canzoneri et al. (2007) test the first order condition of households maximization program (1) under different utility specifications against the data. Their main result is that when the Euler equation is assumed to hold and the interest rate is treated as the unknown variable, the counter-factual interest rate to which the representative household seems to respond is quite different from the monetary policy rate. In most cases it is negatively correlated to it, a result they pose as a *challenge for monetary policy models*, which are built on this Euler equation to link the real and nominal side of the economy.

To derive these results, they assume that households' expectations can be described through a VARX model, i.e. households use optimally all the information publicly available. This hypothesis combined either with a log-normality hypothesis or a first order approximation allows them to estimate the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption which, if the Euler equation was verified by the data, should be equal to the interest rate faced by households. They compare this marginal rate of substitution with the actual monetary policy interest rate and doing so invalidate the permanent income hypothesis even when many alternative utility functions are considered.

Carroll (2000) would interpret this result as an incompatibility between macro data and a microfounded model, due to the differences in the marginal behaviour of individuals. The Euler
equation on consumption could be wrong, not because of the form of the utility function but
because the representative agent assumption is heroic. However, microeconomics comes against
its own difficulties (Carroll, 2001; Ludvigson and Paxson, 2001) while macroeconomic models
remain widespread and have crucial implications for the policy maker, both monetary and fiscal.
Thus, the *challenge* posed by the aggregate Euler equation on consumption is worth investigating.

I built on Canzoneri et al.’s analysis and test household specific rates in an estimated Euler equation for both the US and France when expectations are measured *ex ante* by a VARX model. I find that households’ behaviour is better described by interest rates other than the monetary policy one; indicating that households encounter sizeable frictions on the loans and savings market.

Specifically, I find that the Euler equation is compatible with households reacting to the rate
on car loans in the US; but for France households do not seem to react to any specific rates. These
results have strong implications for the conduct of monetary policy: the transmission channel is
much weaker than generally assumed; and for economic modelling: the spread between household
market conditions and the monetary policy instrument can not be relegated to the residual.

Even for the US, there remain sizeable discrepancies between the Euler equation and the data.
In particular households seem to react to an interest rate much more volatile than actual rates,
a property I will investigate further in the remainder of this project.
# 1 Testing the Euler equation against household specific interest rates

Using macroeconomic data to capture the value of structural parameters is not the purpose of this paper: Attanasio and Weber (1993) show that estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution on aggregate data are systematically lower than estimates on average cohort data. Attanasio and Weber (1993, 1995) show that tests on aggregate data tend to reject micro-founded models specification too often. Carroll (2000) actually wrote a requiem for the representative consumer model on the idea that individual wealth heterogeneity imply marginal utility heterogeneity and potentially impossible aggregation of the Euler equation. However as this model still prevails in macroeconomics, I inquire into how much of the Euler equation can be saved by a richer dataset.

Canzoneri et al. (2007) test and reject the Euler equation on consumption on US data.<fnref n="1" /> They describe the failure of Euler equation as follows: "the consumption Euler equation implies that the real interest rate is proportional to the expected growth of real consumption. The empirical literature shows that a monetary tightening has a small effect on consumption in the first quarter following the tightening. In the following few quarters, the consumption falls more rapidly so that expected consumption growth declines. A decline in expected consumption growth will reduce the real interest rate implied by the Euler equation. The empirical literature shows that money market rates respond in the opposite direction."

However, if households were reacting to another interest rate than that of the money market (mortgage, deposit, private loans...), the difference between this rate and monetary policy could account for the negative or weak correlation they observe. Such a result would have strong implications for monetary policy analysis and the way it is modelled (in the New Neoclassical Synthesis for instance). It would rehabilitate the Euler equation but dampen the transmission mechanism between the policy maker and households.

In this paper, I investigate this possibility. I estimate the relation between different household specific interest rates, expected consumption growth and expected inflation and assess the significance of interest rates in this equation and the fit to the data. The interest rates I consider are depicted on Figure 1. The correlation of real monetary policy rate and the spreads on household specific rates are reported in Table 1. It is noteworthy that household specific spreads are negatively correlated to real monetary policy rate, which could a priori account for the results exposed by Canzoneri et al. (2007).

## US rates (Figure 1a

<footnote n="1">¹In appendix C I replicate their results. I show that they also hold on French data. While they tested the robustness to the definition of the utility function considered, I show that the result is also robust to the choice of several consumption bundles.</footnote>
<table><tr><td>real FedFunds</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Mortgage</td><td>-0.3</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Car Loans</td><td>-0.43</td><td>0.91</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Pers. Loans</td><td>-0.46</td><td>0.84</td><td>0.88</td><td>1</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Cert. Deposit</td><td>-0.2</td><td>0.38</td><td>0.35</td><td>0.38</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>spread Treasury Bill</td><td>-0.46</td><td>0.73</td><td>0.76</td><td>0.84</td><td>0.52</td></tr></table>

(a) US

<table><tr><td>real Pibor</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Depositly</td><td>-0.5</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Livret</td><td>-0.83</td><td>0.57</td><td>1</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>spread Mortgage</td><td>-0.11</td><td>0.51</td><td>0.33</td><td>1</td></tr></table>

(b) France

<caption>Table 1: Correlation of the interest rates (in real terms)</caption>

on Personal Loans at Commercial Banks, 24 Month Loan), a deposit rate (3-Month Certificate of Deposit: Secondary Market Rate) and the 3-month treasury bill (3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate). Apart from the mortgage rate, maturities of these interest rates are short. The mortgage rate is included because wealth effects are empirically stronger in the US than in France, a stylized fact sometimes attributed to the higher flexibility of mortgages in the US where real estate can be used as a collateral for consumption (Aviat et al., 2007). Some of these rates are closely related (treasury bill, fedfunds and certificates of deposits). I keep them all to remain as exhaustive as possible.<fnref n="2" />

**French rates (Figure 1b)** I use the 3-month interbank rate (Pibor-Euribor) and three different rates, all for new contracts for households and individual enterprises: *Deposits with agreed maturity* up to one year, *Deposits redeemable at notice* and *Loans for house purchases excl. bank overdrafts*, total maturity. *Deposits redeemable at notice* refer to regulated savings accounts. The oldest one (*livret A*) dates back to the nineteenth century and is the most widespread financial product in France: more than 90% of French residents have such an account, standing with other *livrets* (*livret jeune*, *livret développement durable*, *livret d'épargne populaire*) for more than 15% of French households' financial assets (Noyer and Mérieux, 2012). As shown on Figure 1b the return on these savings is not linked to the monetary policy rate on most of the sample. More recently, this rate has been indexed on a combination of inflation, Eonia and Euribor with a discretionary component set by the government.<fnref n="2" />

<footnote n="2">² Data are further detailed in appendix A.1.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1: Actual interest rates in nominal terms</figcaption></figure>
**The Euler equation under a linear form** I assume that households are forming their expectations through a VARX model estimated ex-ante.

$$c_{t+1} = \sum_{j=0}^{k} \lambda_{j}^{c,c} c_{t-j} + \sum_{j=0}^{k} \lambda_{j}^{c,\pi} P_{t-j} + \gamma^{c} X_{t} + \epsilon_{t+1}^{c} \quad (2)$$

$$P_{t+1} = \sum_{j=0}^{k} \lambda_{j}^{\pi,c} c_{t-j} + \sum_{j=0}^{k} \lambda_{j}^{\pi,\pi} P_{t-j} + \gamma^{\pi} X_{t} + \epsilon_{t+1}^{\pi} \quad (3)$$

with c consumption per capita (in log) and P its deflator (in log) regressed on 12 lags of both variables and on exogenous regressors (X). For these regressors I consider alternatively economic variables, following Canzoneri et al. (2007) and Fuhrer (2000), and balances of opinion from household surveys. In this latter case, I use the surveys of consumers by the university of Michigan and the European harmonized household survey published for France by Insee (see also Appendix A.2). This second method is less biased by the economist's a priori, however I find very similar results with these data. $\epsilon^c$, $\epsilon^\pi$ are the errors of this VARX model and are by assumption identified to forecasting errors.

If the Euler equation holds, the following should hold under log-normality hypothesis of the VARX residuals (see Appendix B):

$$i_t = \sigma E_t \Delta c_{t+1} + E_t \pi_{t+1} - \ln(\beta) - \left( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^c) + \sigma \mathrm{cov}(\epsilon^c, \epsilon^\pi) + \frac{1}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^\pi) \right) \quad (5)$$

with $i_t$ the interest rate to which households are subject and $E_t \Delta c_{t+1}$, $E_t \pi_{t+1}$ the expectations formed through the previous VARX model for consumption growth ($\Delta \log$) and inflation.<fnref n="3" />

**Model estimation** Using several interest rates in an agnostic way, the model can be tested under the following form:

$$E_t \Delta c_{t+1} = \delta + \sum \gamma^x (i_t^x - E_t \pi_{t+1}) + \varepsilon_t \quad (6)$$

with a constant ($\delta$), coefficients ($\gamma^x$) and errors ($\varepsilon$) to be estimated.

For sake of comparability, I estimated the model only with the monetary policy rate and I accept the hypothesis that this rate alone does not bring useful information in explaining expected consumption growth. This result summarizes those of appendix C as raising a challenge for monetary policy models using the Euler equation: this equation, as it is used in monetary policy models, is at odds with the data. The estimates for equation (6) with household specific rates are reported in Table 2.

<footnote n="3">³Inflation is defined in accordance with consumption as the growth rate ($\Delta \log$) of the considered consumption bundle deflator.</footnote>
<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2"></th><th colspan="2">Economic Regressors</th><th colspan="2">Surveys</th></tr><tr><th>coeff.</th><th>Std.</th><th>coeff.</th><th>Std.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>cste</td><td>0.0073</td><td>4.8645</td><td>0.0078</td><td>3.6757</td></tr><tr><td>r.FedFunds</td><td>-0.3038</td><td>-1.2174</td><td>-0.4877</td><td>-1.3654</td></tr><tr><td>r.Mortgage</td><td>-0.0105</td><td>-0.084</td><td>-0.0083</td><td>-0.0476</td></tr><tr><td>r.Car Loans</td><td>0.6231</td><td>4.7107</td><td>0.5532</td><td>2.9457</td></tr><tr><td>r.Pers. Loans</td><td>-0.4071</td><td>-5.1623</td><td>-0.3887</td><td>-3.4573</td></tr><tr><td>r.Cert. Deposit</td><td>-0.9478</td><td>-3.4824</td><td>-0.9392</td><td>-2.4075</td></tr><tr><td>r.Treasury Bill</td><td>1.1787</td><td>5.0743</td><td>1.4423</td><td>4.3088</td></tr><tr><td>DW/adjustedR2</td><td>0.9283</td><td>0.3568</td><td>1.1059</td><td>0.228</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>stat.</td><td>p-value</td><td>stat.</td><td>p-value</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 1</td><td>16.07</td><td>0</td><td>9.02</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 2</td><td>13.9</td><td>0</td><td>14.03</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 3</td><td>19.18</td><td>0</td><td>10.5</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 4</td><td>0.23</td><td>0.98</td><td>0.13</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table>

(a) US

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2"></th><th colspan="2">Economic Regressors</th><th colspan="2">Surveys</th></tr><tr><th>coeff.</th><th>Std.</th><th>coeff.</th><th>Std.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>cste</td><td>9e-04</td><td>1.1216</td><td>9e-04</td><td>0.8961</td></tr><tr><td>r.Pibor</td><td>0.5817</td><td>2.0315</td><td>0.756</td><td>2.2445</td></tr><tr><td>r.Depositly</td><td>-0.9067</td><td>-2.5547</td><td>-1.1223</td><td>-2.7031</td></tr><tr><td>r.Livret</td><td>-0.2059</td><td>-1.8859</td><td>-0.1854</td><td>-1.5661</td></tr><tr><td>r.Mortgage</td><td>0.3896</td><td>2.6083</td><td>0.414</td><td>2.3809</td></tr><tr><td>DW/adjustedR2</td><td>1.4493</td><td>0.0814</td><td>1.9567</td><td>0.0756</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>stat.</td><td>p-value</td><td>stat.</td><td>p-value</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 1</td><td>2.25</td><td>0.04</td><td>2.13</td><td>0.06</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 2</td><td>2.71</td><td>0.1</td><td>2.43</td><td>0.12</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 3</td><td>2.38</td><td>0.04</td><td>2.38</td><td>0.04</td></tr><tr><td>Fisher's Test 4</td><td>0.05</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table>

(b) France

<caption>Table 2: Euler equation models (6) (CES utility function with expectations measured by a VARX with economic regressors or survey data)</caption>

For the US (Table 2a), coefficients are significantly different from 0, excepted for the fedfunds and the rate on mortgages. The signs of the estimated coefficients are nevertheless economically puzzling: for instance, the interest rate on car loans and personal loans have opposite effects on consumption. Overall this estimation yields a negative rate combination in nominal terms which is at odds with the theory.

For France (Table 2b), the coefficient on the regulated savings rate is not statistically significant.<fnref n="4" /> Similarly to the US, the signs of the coefficients vary, which is not economically interpretable and the optimal rate combination is largely negative.

**Are these Euler equations on consumption?** On this model I perform three Fisher's tests examining whether the estimated equation can be called *Euler equation on consumption* in which household specific rates play a role:

* $T_1$ on the joint nullity of all coefficients as a simple check

* $T_2$ on the cumulated nullity of interest rate coefficients to verify that this model effectively relates expected consumption with interest rates so that it can be called a *Euler equation on consumption*

* $T_3$ on the joint nullity of interest rate coefficients (other than monetary policy) to verify that rates other than the monetary policy one bring useful information to the model

* $T_4$ on the equality between coefficients estimated using the expectation VAR and assuming perfect expectations

These tests are reported in Table 2. For the US countries all null hypothesis but the last are rejected. For France, only at the 10% threshold can I reject the hypothesis that $\sum_x \gamma^x = 0$.

<footnote n="4">⁴The constant is not significantly different from 0 either: in equation (6) $ln(\beta)$ and the variance term are of opposite sign and can add up to zero.</footnote>
The first three tests imply that the estimated equation is a *Euler equation on consumption* in which household specific rates play a role.

As for the last test, it is conducted to verify how the VARX estimated *ex ante* influences the estimation in this second step. The test concludes that the two estimations are not statistically different.

**Interest rates comparisons** From equation (6), the previous Fisher's tests allow me to compute

$$ \frac{E_t \Delta c_{t+1} - \delta}{\sum_x \gamma^x} + E_t \pi_{t+1} \quad \text{and} \quad \frac{\sum_x \gamma^x i_t^x}{\sum_x \gamma^x} \qquad (7) $$

The left hand side of the previous equation is the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption (hereafter MRS denoted $\tilde{i}_t$).

$$ \tilde{i}_t = \frac{E_t \Delta c_{t+1} - \delta}{\sum_x \gamma^x} + E_t \pi_{t+1} \qquad (8) $$

If the model held exactly, this rate would be equal to the optimal combination of actual rates returned by the estimation $\tilde{i}_t$

$$ \tilde{i}_t = \frac{\sum_x \gamma^x i_t^x}{\sum_x \gamma^x} \qquad (9) $$

Table 3 displays some comparative statistics for actual and Euler interest rates in real terms.

In the US, the *MRS* is not correlated with the Fedfunds (< 10%). The correlation with the optimal rate combination is much larger (62%). For France, correlation with the Pibor-Euribor can even be negative. With the optimal spread combination it reaches 34% when deflation is based on expected future inflation (correlations 2).

However for both countries, the statistical properties of both the optimal rate combination and the *MRS* are not consistent with the initial interest rates. In particular, they are negative and the *MRS* is much more volatile than the corresponding optimal rate combinations (Table 3). Comparisons of these rates depicted in Figure 2 convey the same message.

I find similar results when expectations are built on survey data. Also allowing for autocorrelation of the residual and habit formation in the utility function does not markedly modify the outcome of the estimations.
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2: Actual interest rates and *MRS* with a CES utility function (in nominal terms)</figcaption></figure>
<table><thead><tr><th>Fedfunds<br>i<sup>x0</sup></th><th>i&#773;</th><th>i&#773;</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

(a) US

<table><thead><tr><th>i<sup>x0</sup></th><th>i&#773;</th><th>i&#773;</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

(b) France

I test two transformations of actual nominal rates in real terms: correlation 1 corresponds to the rate deflated by contemporaneous inflation $i_t - \pi_t$ and correlation 2 uses expected future inflation $E_t \pi_{t+1}$.

MRS

Positivity constraint

$\forall x$

$\gamma^x$

$\gamma^x$

MRS

MRS

MRS

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

(a) US

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

(b) France

Reported values for the interest rate coefficients are the $\gamma^x$, not the $\lambda^x$. The variance matrix for the estimates is computed with the delta method and from the gradient of the likelihood at each date.
<table><caption>(a) US</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Fedfunds<br>i<sup>ro</sup></th><th>Opt. Comb.<br>ĩ</th><th>MRS<br>ĩ</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Mean</th><td>0.46</td><td>1.45</td><td>1.46</td></tr><tr><th>Std deviation</th><td>0.72</td><td>0.69</td><td>1.97</td></tr><tr><th>Minimum</th><td>-0.93</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-4.25</td></tr><tr><th>Maximum</th><td>2.76</td><td>3.32</td><td>7.15</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation1</th><td>1</td><td>0.81</td><td>0.08</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation1</th><td>0.81</td><td>1</td><td>0.34</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation2</th><td>1</td><td>0.79</td><td>0.05</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation2</th><td>0.79</td><td>1</td><td>0.32</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><caption>(b) France</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Pibor<br>i<sup>ro</sup></th><th>Opt. Comb.<br>ĩ</th><th>MRS<br>ĩ</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Mean</th><td>0.71</td><td>1.22</td><td>1.23</td></tr><tr><th>Std deviation</th><td>0.73</td><td>0.75</td><td>5.23</td></tr><tr><th>Minimum</th><td>-0.5</td><td>-0.19</td><td>-11.3</td></tr><tr><th>Maximum</th><td>2.52</td><td>2.9</td><td>16.16</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation1</th><td>1</td><td>0.95</td><td>0.18</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation1</th><td>0.95</td><td>1</td><td>0.19</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation2</th><td>1</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.12</td></tr><tr><th>Correlation2</th><td>0.94</td><td>1</td><td>0.14</td></tr></tbody></table>

I test two transformations of actual nominal rates in real terms: correlation 1 corresponds to the rate deflated by contemporaneous inflation $i_t - \pi_t$ and correlation 2 uses expected future inflation $i_t - E_t \pi_{t+1}$.

<caption>Table 5: Comparative statistics of the interest rates and the MRS under positivity constraint (in real terms)</caption>

## Conclusion

The monetary policy rate does not bring useful information to explain the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption of the representative consumer both in the US and France. This paper points to a representative household reacting to the interest rate on car loans in the US. For France this rate is not identified.

This result may seem trivial as it is clear that households can not borrow directly from the Central Banker's desk. What is less trivial however, is that the spread between households' rate and the monetary policy instrument matters so much and shall not be relegated to the residual of the Euler equation. Models should account for financial market frictions faced by households and consider weaker transmission mechanism of the monetary policy to a major share of real final demand, households' consumption.

Household specific rates explain part of the wedge between the MRS and the monetary policy rate in the US; however there remain sizeable discrepancies which do not rehabilitate the Euler equation as a powerful modelling element. In other words, the challenge to monetary policy models raised by Canzoneri et al. (2007) remains unchanged.

This dead-end may be due to omitted variables (current income, demographic effects, unemployment...) in the Euler equation under its simplest form. Indeed, econometric investigations of the consumption-savings behaviour often put forward richer specifications (Aviat et al., 2007; Bardaji et al., 2014). In the present paper I find that the MRS is extremely volatile. Similar estimations as those presented in this paper with habit formation suggest that allowing the utility of consumption to be smoother does not reduce the volatility of the MRS. In further developments of this project, I will investigate the extend to which the measurement of expectations used can influence this result.
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3: Actual interest rates and *MRS* with a CES utility function under positivity constraint (in nominal terms)</figcaption></figure>
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# A Data and the VAR of expectations

## A.1 Data

**France** I use Insee's Quarterly National Accounts data for consumption per capita excluding durables, its deflator, GDP, disposable income.<fnref n="5" /> Data, including interest rates, are available since the early eighties but I restrict the sample to post 1986 for stationariness reasons as this sample includes only the end of the period of high and volatile inflation. Interest rate (Pibor-Euribor and household specific rates) are taken from Banque de France and the ECB. For household balances of opinion, I use the European harmonized Household Survey published for France by Insee. Population and unemployment data are also retrieved from Insee's public database. I use

<footnote n="5">⁵Data are taken from the first publication of base 2010 (2014Q1) but I also estimated with similar results the model on the last publication of base 2005.</footnote>
quarterly data spanning from 1986Q1 to 2013Q4.

**US** I use data from the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) for consumption, GDP, disposable income and deflators. I restrict consumption to non-durable goods and services. Real variables are taken per-capita. Interest rates, population and unemployment data are taken from the Fred database. I also use the surveys of consumers by the university of Michigan. I use quarterly data spanning from 1972Q1 to 2013Q2.

## A.2 The VAR of expectations

For section 1 and appendix C, I estimate a VARX to model households' expectations. This method is based on Fuhrer (2000) and Canzoneri et al. (2007). I restricted the specification of the expectation VAR to a VAR in level with 12 lags. However, I show in appendix C that the rejection of the Euler equation does not depend on the choice of a VAR model.

**US** I estimate a VAR model corresponding to the log of consumption in non-durables per capita and its deflator. I replicate the VARX of Fuhrer (2000) and Canzoneri et al. (2007) to model households' expectations in the US: additional regressors are the fedfund rate, log GDP and log GDI per capita. However, I do not use the Journal of Commerce industrial materials commodity price index for all items and test some balances of opinion from the Michigan survey without significant modifications.

I also estimate expectations from a VARX using only balances of opinion from the Michigan survey: the Index of Consumer Expectations, Index of Current Economic Conditions and balances of opinion related to financial situation (past and expected), oppportunity to purchase durables, vehicles or a house, and expected inflation in the next 12 months.

**France** I estimate a VAR model corresponding to the log of consumption in non-durables per capita and its deflator. This VAR model also contains 12 lags and is estimated from 1986Q1 to 2013Q4 in level. To this VAR I add the lags of the purchasing power of gross disposable income, of GDP per capita, the Pibor-Euribor and test some balances of opinion from household opinion survey which do not significantly impact the outcome of the VAR.

I also estimate expectations from a VARX using only balances of opinion from the European harmonized consumers survey: general economic situation, unemployment, financial situation, consumer prices, savings intentions, current saving capacity.
## B The conditional log-normality hypothesis

The equation under scrutiny takes the following form:

$$ (1 + i_t)^{-1} = \beta E_t \left( \frac{U_c(t+1)}{U_c(t)} \frac{1}{\Pi_{t+1}} \right) \quad (10) $$

In the most simple case $U_c(t) = C_t^{-\sigma} = e^{-\sigma c_t}$ with $c_t = \log(C_t)$, $\pi_t = \log(\Pi_t)$

$$ E_t \left( \frac{U_c(t+1)}{U_c(t)} \frac{1}{\Pi_{t+1}} \right) = E_t \left( \exp(-\sigma \Delta c_{t+1} - \pi_{t+1}) \right) = E_t \left( \exp(a' y_{t+1}) \right) \quad (11) $$

with $a = [-\sigma, -1]'$ and $y_t = [\Delta c_t, \pi_t]'$.

I suppose that households' expectations are formed through the previous VAR model with normal errors $\nu_t$ and variance $\Sigma$, so that $y_{t+1} = E_t(y_{t+1}) + \nu_{t+1}$. I can then decompose $E_t \exp(a' y_{t+1}) = \exp(a' E_t y_{t+1}) E_t \exp(a' \nu)$, in which the second term can be simplified

$$ E_t \exp(a' \nu) = \int \frac{1}{(2\pi)^{\frac{n}{2}} |\Sigma|^{\frac{1}{2}}} \exp \left( a' \nu - \frac{1}{2} \nu' \Sigma^{-1} \nu \right) d\nu $$

first change of variables

$$ \Sigma^{-1} = P' DP \quad \text{with} \quad P \in \mathcal{O}(n) \quad \text{and} \quad D \quad \text{diagonal} $$

$$ P\nu = \mu $$

$$ \nu = P'\mu $$

$$ E_t \exp(a' \nu) = \int \frac{1}{(2\pi)^{\frac{n}{2}} |\Sigma|^{\frac{1}{2}}} \exp \left( a' P' \mu - \frac{1}{2} \mu' D \mu \right) d\mu $$

second change of variables

$$ x = \left(\frac{D}{2}\right)^{\frac{1}{2}} \mu - \left(\frac{D}{2}\right)^{-\frac{1}{2}} \frac{Pa}{2} $$

$$ \text{then } x'x = \frac{1}{2}\mu' D\mu - a'P'\mu + \frac{1}{2}a'P'D^{-1}Pa $$

$$ \text{we then have } E_t \exp(a' \nu) = \int \frac{1}{(2\pi)^{\frac{n}{2}} |\Sigma|^{\frac{1}{2}}} \exp \left( -x'x + \frac{a'\Sigma a}{2} \right) \left| \frac{D}{2} \right|^{-\frac{1}{2}} dx $$

$$ E_t \exp(a' \nu) = \exp \left( \frac{a' \Sigma a}{2} \right) = \exp \left( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \text{var}(\epsilon^c) + \sigma \text{cov}(\epsilon^c, \epsilon^\pi) + \frac{1}{2} \text{var}(\epsilon^\pi) \right) $$

$$ E_t \left( \frac{U_c(t+1)}{U_c(t)} \frac{1}{\Pi_{t+1}} \right) = E_t \left( \exp(a' y_{t+1}) \right) = \exp \left( a' E_t(y_{t+1}) \right) \exp \left( \frac{a' \Sigma a}{2} \right) $$
Although it avoids a first order approximation, this method still forms a strong assumption: second moments $\Sigma$ are constant. In particular, this assumption shuts down one channel for precautionary savings: when the environment is more uncertain, $\Sigma$ increases, which is equivalent to a decrease in the interest rate. This channel of uncertainty shocks could account for an important share of business cycle fluctuations (Bloom, 2009).

## C Confirming Canzoneri et al. (2007) on French data

If the Euler equation holds and households are rational and forming their expectations through a VAR model, the following should hold under log-normality hypothesis (Appendix B):

$$i_t = \sigma E_t \Delta c_{t+1} + E_t \pi_{t+1} - \ln(\beta) - \left( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^c) + \sigma \mathrm{cov}(\epsilon^c, \epsilon^\pi) + \frac{1}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^\pi) \right) \quad (13)$$

with $E_t \Delta c_{t+1}$, $E_t \pi_{t+1}$ the expectations formed through a VAR model for consumption growth and inflation respectively and $\epsilon^c$, $\epsilon^\pi$ the errors of this VAR model.

Considering external habit formation or catching-up with the Joneses under a multiplicative form Abel (1990); Gali (1994) modifies the preceding system by adding the lagged value of $\Delta c_t$ in the Euler equation whose coefficient will depend on both $\sigma$ and the habit formation parameter $\gamma$. The theoretical link (13) between expected consumption and interest rate becomes:

$$i_t = \sigma E_t \Delta c_{t+1} - \gamma(1 - \sigma) \Delta c_t + E_t \pi_{t+1} - \ln(\beta) - \left( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^c) + \sigma \mathrm{cov}(\epsilon^c, \epsilon^\pi) + \frac{1}{2} \mathrm{var}(\epsilon^\pi) \right) \quad (14)$$

with households' utility a CES function of $\frac{C_t}{C_{t-1}}$.

It is possible to assess graphically the fit to the Euler equation as in Canzoneri et al. (2007) by assuming a value for $\sigma$, $\gamma$ and plotting actual interest rates with the marginal rate of substitution between present and future consumption, either in real or nominal terms.

Figures 4 depict such comparisons using consumption in non-durables, with and without habit formation. These figures exhibit similar features to the US case reproduced in Figure 5. First, these graphs show that adding habit formation in the utility function does not move the MRS closer to the actual monetary policy rate. Tables 6 display some statistics for both countries. On average, there are positive spreads between the MRS implied by Euler equations and the monetary policy rate. As Canzoneri et al. point out, these spreads "have been well documented in the literature on the equity premium puzzle and the risk free rate puzzle" and are not a strong argument against the Euler equation. However the correlations reported in these tables are weak, even though their sign is not clear cut and depend on the way actual nominal rates are converted in real terms. These correlations are outlined by Canzoneri et al. as a challenge for macroeconomists and in particular for monetary policy models.
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4: Pibor and *MRS* with a CES utility function ($\sigma = 2$) with and without habit formation ($\gamma = 0.6$)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

I test two transformations of actual nominal rates in real terms: correlation 1 corresponds to the rate deflated with contemporaneous inflation $i_t - \pi_t$ and correlation 2 uses expected future inflation $E_t \pi_{t+1}$.

<caption>Table 6: Statistics for the actual and *MRS* (in real terms)</caption>

Figure 5 confirms Canzoneri et al.'s qualitative results for the US: the *MRS* markedly departs from the monetary policy rate "during the Volcker tightening in the early 1980s" and "during the Greenspan easing in the early 2000s". In addition in the mid 1990s, the *MRS* levelled off while actual rate remained stable. Also, in 2008 consumption nose dived more drastically than the interest rate would have implied: in nominal terms both rates plummeted, but in real terms *MRS* dropped while the real monetary policy rate peaked.

Figure 4 shows similar mismatch for France: the *MRS* mirrored the monetary policy rate in the 1990s and 2000s. In 2008, the French rates show the same disconnection in real and nominal terms as in the US.

## Robustness to the calibration and the definition of the consumption bundle

Canzoneri et al. (2007) show that their results are robust to the definition of the utility function (with and without habit formation, either internal or external, additive or multiplicative) they also consider recursive utility and liquidity constraints (Campbell and Mankiw, 1990). As another robustness test, I compute similar *MRS* using other definitions of the consumption bundle and other calibrations of the utility function. Additional results are depicted on Figures 6 with
<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5: US Fedfund and *MRS* with a CES utility function ($\sigma = 2$) with and without habit formation ($\gamma = 0.6$)</figcaption></figure>

a CES utility function without habit formation. These figures show, for three standard values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (2, 1, 0.5), the *MRS* computed with the VARX of expectations using four definitions of the consumption bundle (total consumption, consumption excluding durables, excluding energy or excluding committed expenditures (Quinet and Ferrari, 2008)). These interest rates are compared with the 3 month interbank rate and four different household specific rates, deposits and loans with various maturities (see section 1). Comparisons are made both in real and nominal terms. Tables 7 display the correlation matrices of the actual and *MRS* in real terms.

Figure 6a, 6c and 6e show that in nominal terms, the *MRS* from the Euler equations does not greatly depend on the consumption bundle considered, at least not in a way which would solve Canzoneri et al.'s challenge. Also they are more volatile than actual interest rates, all the more so when $\sigma$ is large.

In real terms, deflated by actual inflation, the larger volatility of the *MRS* is not clear cut (figure 6b, 6d and especially 6f). However, there remains a sizeable discrepancy between the levels of the *MRS* and interest rates set by the market in the eighties up to the mid-nineties. This stylized fact has often been interpreted in France in line with the liberalisation of financial markets over these years.

For each calibration, the interest rates can be split in two groups based on the correlations (Tables 7): *MRS* and actual interest rates. Even though the correlations between these groups can be sizeable (up to 50% for the *livret*), the correlations within these groups are much larger and often close to one. These results are in line with Canzoneri et al.'s conclusions.

In addition to testing several definitions of consumption, I tested 3 VAR models to measure households expectations: one in first difference with two lags, one with additional regressors
$(\sigma = 0.5)$

<table><tr><td>Euler eq. rate total consumption</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. energy</td><td>0.86</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. durables</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.78</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. committed exp.</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.83</td><td>0.86</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Pibor</td><td>0.22</td><td>-0.03</td><td>0.28</td><td>0.19</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Deposit1y</td><td>0.22</td><td>-0.05</td><td>0.29</td><td>0.18</td><td>0.99</td><td>1</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Livret</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.53</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.62</td><td>0.64</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Mortgage</td><td>0.27</td><td>0.01</td><td>0.36</td><td>0.21</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.66</td></tr></table>

$(\sigma = 1)$

<table><tr><td>Euler eq. rate total consumption</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. energy</td><td>0.87</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. durables</td><td>0.93</td><td>0.78</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. committed exp.</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.87</td><td>0.84</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Pibor</td><td>0.17</td><td>-0.06</td><td>0.27</td><td>0.13</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Deposit1y</td><td>0.16</td><td>-0.08</td><td>0.26</td><td>0.12</td><td>0.99</td><td>1</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Livret</td><td>0.31</td><td>-0.06</td><td>0.37</td><td>0.31</td><td>0.62</td><td>0.64</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Mortgage</td><td>0.21</td><td>-0.02</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.15</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.66</td></tr></table>

$(\sigma = 2)$

<table><caption>Table 7: Correlation matrix of Euler equation and actual interest rates in real terms</caption><tr><td>Euler eq. rate total consumption</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. energy</td><td>0.89</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. durables</td><td>0.92</td><td>0.78</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>cons. excl. committed exp.</td><td>0.92</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Pibor</td><td>0.13</td><td>-0.07</td><td>0.24</td><td>0.08</td><td>1</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Deposit1y</td><td>0.11</td><td>-0.1</td><td>0.23</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.99</td><td>1</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Livret</td><td>0.16</td><td>-0.14</td><td>0.22</td><td>0.18</td><td>0.62</td><td>0.64</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Mortgage</td><td>0.16</td><td>-0.04</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.94</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.66</td></tr></table>

identical to those in the benchmark models of this paper, one in over the year growth rate with the same regressors and households survey data.<fnref n="6" /> The present results are robust to these changes in the VAR model.

<footnote n="6">⁶Balances of opinion on households survey data match the evolution of macroeconomic data over the year, in particular gross disposable income, better than over the quarter.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Figure 6: (FR) Actual interest rates and MRS for 4 definitions of the consumption bundle with a CES utility function without habit formation</figcaption></figure>
<table><tr><td>G 9001</td><td>J. FAYOLLE et M. FLEURBAEY<br/>Accumulation, profitabilité et endettement des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9002</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br/>Détection et effets de la multicolinéarité dans les modèles linéaires ordinaires - Un prolongement de la réflexion de BELSLEY, KUH et WELSCH</td></tr><tr><td>G 9003</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br/>Indexation des salaires : la rupture de 1983</td></tr><tr><td>G 9004</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br/>Compétitivité, croissance et innovation de produit</td></tr><tr><td>G 9005</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br/>Les conséquences de la désindexation. Analyse dans une maquette prix-salaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9101</td><td>Équipe AMADEUS<br/>Le modèle AMADEUS - Première partie - Présentation générale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9102</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Le modèle AMADEUS - Deuxième partie - Propriétés variantielles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9103</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br/>Endogenous growth and product innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9104</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br/>Le modèle AMADEUS - Troisième partie - Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international</td></tr><tr><td>G 9105</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br/>Effets de demande et d'offre dans les résultats du commerce extérieur manufacturé de la France au cours des deux dernières décennies</td></tr><tr><td>G 9106</td><td>B. CREPON<br/>Innovation, taille et concentration : causalités et dynamiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9107</td><td>B. AMABLE et D. GUELLEC<br/>Un panorama des théories de la croissance endogène</td></tr><tr><td>G 9108</td><td>M. GLAUDE et M. MOUTARDIER<br/>Une évaluation du coût direct de l'enfant de 1979 à 1989</td></tr><tr><td>G 9109</td><td>P. RALLE et alii<br/>France - Allemagne : performances économiques comparées</td></tr><tr><td>G 9110</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Micro-DMS<br/>NON PARU</td></tr><tr><td>G 9111</td><td>A. MAGNIER<br/>Effets accélérateur et multiplicateur en France depuis 1970 : quelques résultats empiriques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9112</td><td>B. CREPON et G. DUREAU<br/>Investissement en recherche-développement : analyse de causalités dans un modèle d'accélérateur généralisé</td></tr><tr><td>G 9113</td><td>J.L. BRILLET, H. ERKEL-ROUSSE, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br/>"France-Allemagne Couplées" - Deux économies vues par une maquette macro-économétrique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9201</td><td>W.J. ADAMS, B. CREPON, D. ENCAOUA<br/>Choix technologiques et stratégies de dissuasion d'entrée</td></tr><tr><td>G 9202</td><td>J. OLIVEIRA-MARTINS, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9203</td><td>I. STAPIC<br/>Les échanges internationaux de services de la France dans le cadre des négociations multilatérales du GATT<br/>Juin 1992 (1ère version)<br/>Novembre 1992 (version finale)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9204</td><td>P. SEVESTRE<br/>L'économie sur données individuelles-temporelles. Une note introductive</td></tr><tr><td>G 9205</td><td>H. ERKEL-ROUSSE<br/>Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international dans le modèle AMADEUS (réestimation 1992)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9206</td><td>N. GREENAN et D. GUELLEC<br/>Coordination within the firm and endogenous growth</td></tr><tr><td>G 9207</td><td>A. MAGNIER et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br/>Technology and trade: empirical evidences for the major five industrialized countries</td></tr><tr><td>G 9208</td><td>B. CREPON, E. DUGUET, D. ENCAOUA et P. MOHNEN<br/>Cooperative, non cooperative R & D and optimal patent life</td></tr><tr><td>G 9209</td><td>B. CREPON et E. DUGUET<br/>Research and development, competition and innovation: an application of pseudo maximum likelihood methods to Poisson models with heterogeneity</td></tr><tr><td>G 9301</td><td>J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br/>Commerce international et concurrence impartie : développements récents et implications pour la politique commerciale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9302</td><td>Ch. CASES<br/>Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature</td></tr><tr><td>G 9303</td><td>H. ERKEL-ROUSSE<br/>Union économique et monétaire : le débat économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9304</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC / G. BROUSSAUDIER - L. MIOTTI<br/>Innovation organisationnelle, dynamisme technologique et performances des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9305</td><td>P. JAILLARD<br/>Le traité de Maastricht : présentation juridique et historique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9306</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Micro-DMS : présentation et propriétés</td></tr><tr><td>G 9307</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Micro-DMS - variantes : les tableaux</td></tr><tr><td>G 9308</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br/>Les grands réseaux publics français dans une perspective européenne</td></tr><tr><td>G 9309</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE<br/>Profitabilité de l'investissement productif et transmission des chocs financiers</td></tr><tr><td>G 9310</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br/>Les théories sur la structure optimale du capital : quelques points de repère</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9311</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br/>Les décisions de financement des entreprises françaises : une évaluation empirique des théories de la structure optimale du capital</td></tr><tr><td>G 9312</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ<br/>Q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers</td></tr><tr><td>G 9313</td><td>Équipes Amadeus (INSEE), Banque de France, Métric (DP)<br/>Présentation des propriétés des principaux modèles macroéconomiques du Service Public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9314</td><td>B. CREPON - E. DUGUET<br/>Research & Development, competition and innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9315</td><td>B. DORMONT<br/>Quelle est l'influence du coût du travail sur l'emploi ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9316</td><td>D. BLANCHET - C. BROUSSE<br/>Deux études sur l'âge de la retraite</td></tr><tr><td>G 9317</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br/>Répartition du travail dans une population hétérogène : deux notes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9318</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER - N. PONTY<br/>AMADEUS - an annual macro-economic model for the medium and long term</td></tr><tr><td>G 9319</td><td>G. CETTE - Ph. CUNÉO - D. EYSSARTIER - J. GAUTIÉ<br/>Les effets sur l'emploi d'un abaissement du coût du travail des jeunes</td></tr><tr><td>G 9401</td><td>D. BLANCHET<br/>Les structures par âge importent-elles ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9402</td><td>J. GAUTIÉ<br/>Le chômage des jeunes en France : problème de formation ou phénomène de file d'attente ?<br/>Quelques éléments du débat</td></tr><tr><td>G 9403</td><td>P. QUIRION<br/>Les déchets en France : éléments statistiques et économiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9404</td><td>D. LADIRAY - M. GRUN-REHOMME<br/>Lissage par moyennes mobiles - Le problème des extrémités de série</td></tr><tr><td>G 9405</td><td>V. MAILLARD<br/>Théorie et pratique de la correction des effets de jours ouvrables</td></tr><tr><td>G 9406</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br/>La décision d'investir</td></tr><tr><td>G 9407</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br/>Les apports de l'économie industrielle pour définir la stratégie économique de l'hôpital public</td></tr><tr><td>G 9408</td><td>L. BLOCH, J. BOURDIEU, B. COLIN-SEDILLOT, G. LONGUEVILLE<br/>Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté</td></tr><tr><td>G 9409</td><td>D. EYSSARTIER, P. MAIRE<br/>Impacts macro-économiques de mesures d'aide au logement - quelques éléments d'évaluation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9410</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br/>Suivi conjointurel de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9411</td><td>C. DEFEUILLEY - Ph. QUIRION<br/>Les déchets d'emballages ménagers : une</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9412</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT<br/>Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité<br/>Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9413</td><td>B. DORMONT - M. PAUCHET<br/>L'évaluation de l'élasticité emploi-salaire dépend-elle des structures de qualification ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9414</td><td>I. KABLA<br/>Le Choix de breveter une invention</td></tr><tr><td>G 9501</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. SEDILLOT<br/>Irreversible Investment and Uncertainty: When is there a Value of Waiting?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9502</td><td>L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ<br/>Imperfections du marché du crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9503</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Les transformations de la demande de travail par qualification en France<br/>Une étude sur la période 1970-1993</td></tr><tr><td>G 9504</td><td>N. GREENAN<br/>Technologie, changement organisationnel, qualifications et emploi : une étude empirique sur l'industrie manufacturière</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Persistence des hiérarchies sectorielles de salaires: un réexamen sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9505 Bis</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Persistence of inter-industry wages differentials: a reexamination on matched worker-firm panel data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9506</td><td>S. JACOBZONE<br/>Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective<br/>NON PARU - article sorti dans Économie et Prévision n° 122 (1996) - pages 95 à 113</td></tr><tr><td>G 9507</td><td>G. CETTE - S. MAHFOUZ<br/>Le partage primaire du revenu<br/>Constat descriptif sur longue période</td></tr><tr><td>G 9601</td><td>Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direction de la Prévision - Érasme - INSEE - OFCE<br/>Structures et propriétés de cinq modèles macro-économiques français</td></tr><tr><td>G 9602</td><td>Rapport d'activité de la DESE de l'année 1995</td></tr><tr><td>G 9603</td><td>J. BOURDIEU - A. DRAZNIEKS<br/>L'octroi de crédit aux PME : une analyse à partir d'informations bancaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9604</td><td>A. TOPIOL-BENSAÎD<br/>Les implantations japonaises en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9605</td><td>P. GENIER - S. JACOBZONE<br/>Comportements de prévention, consommation d'alcool et tabagie : peut-on parler d'une gestion globale du capital santé ?<br/>Une modélisation microéconométrique empirique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9606</td><td>C. DOZ - F. LENGLART<br/>Factor analysis and unobserved component models: an application to the study of French business surveys</td></tr><tr><td>G 9607</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br/>La théorie coopérative de la firme</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>G 9608</td><td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br/>Technological innovation and employment reallocation</td><td>G 9714</td><td>F. LEQUILLER<br/>Does the French Consumer Price Index Over-state Inflation?</td><td>G 9808</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Can a Conservative Governor Conduct an Ac-comodative Monetary Policy?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9609</td><td>Ph. COUR - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>L'intégration asymétrique au sein du continent américain: un essai de modélisation</td><td>G 9715</td><td>X. BONNET<br/>Peut-on mettre en évidence les rigidités à la baisse des salaires nominaux ?<br/>Une étude sur quelques grands pays de l'OCDE</td><td>G 9809</td><td>X. BONNET - E. DUBOIS - L. FAUVET<br/>Asymétrie des infusions relatives et menus costs : tests sur l'inflation française</td></tr><tr><td>G 9610</td><td>S. DUCHENE - G. FORGEOT - A. JACQUOT<br/>Analyse des évolutions récentes de la productivité apparente du travail</td><td>G 9716</td><td>N. IUNG - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>Productivité de la recherche et rendements d'échelle dans le secteur pharmaceutique français</td><td>G 9810</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>Sales and Advertising with Spillovers at the firm level: Estimation of a Dynamic Structural Model on Panel Data</td></tr><tr><td>G 9611</td><td>X. BONNET - S. MAHFOUZ<br/>The influence of different specifications of wages-prices spirals on the measure of the NAIRU: the case of France</td><td>G 9717</td><td>E. DUGUET - I. KABLA<br/>Appropriation strategy and the motivations to use the patent system in France - An econometric analysis at the firm level</td><td>G 9811</td><td>J.P. BERTHIER<br/>Congestion urbaine: un modèle de trafic de pointe à courbe débit-vitesse et demande élastique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9612</td><td>PH. COUR - E. DUBOIS, S. MAHFOUZ, J. PISANI-FERRY<br/>The cost of fiscal retrenchment revisited: how strong is the evidence?</td><td>G 9718</td><td>L.P. PELÉ - P. RALLE<br/>Âge de la retraite: les aspects incitatifs du ré-gime général</td><td>G 9812</td><td>C. PRIGENT<br/>La part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée: une approche macroéconomique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9613</td><td>A. JACQUOT<br/>Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seule-ment conjoncturelles ?</td><td>G 9719</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique français-chinois, chinois-français</td><td>G 9813</td><td>A.Th. AERTS<br/>L'évolution de la part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée en France reflète-t-elle les évolutions individuelles sur la période 1979-1994 ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 9614</td><td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique Français-Chinois</td><td>G 9720</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE - J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Mesurer l'influence de la fiscalité sur la locali-sation des entreprises</td><td>G 9814</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9701</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>La taxe professionnelle: éléments de cadrage économique</td><td>G 9721</td><td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire<br/>Une revue de la littérature</td><td>G 9901</td><td>S. DUCHÈNE - A. JACQUOT<br/>Une croissance plus riche en emplois depuis le début de la décennie? Une analyse en comp-raison internationale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9702</td><td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Transition et stabilité politique d'un système redistributif</td><td>G 9722</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - L. BRIOT<br/>Les données comptables d'entreprises<br/>Le système intermédiaire d'entreprises<br/>Passage des données individuelles aux données sectorielles</td><td>G 9902</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Modélisation des carrières dans Destinie</td></tr><tr><td>G 9703</td><td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Train or Pay: Does it Reduce Inequalities to Encourage Firms to Train their Workers?</td><td>G 9723</td><td>P. AUGERAUD - J.E. CHAPRON<br/>Using Business Accounts for Compiling National Accounts: the French Experience</td><td>G 9903</td><td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Évolution de la dispersion des salaires: un essai de prospective par microsimulation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9704</td><td>P. GENIER<br/>Deux contributions sur dépendance et équité</td><td>G 9724</td><td>P. AUGERAUD<br/>Les comptes d'entreprise par activités - Le passage aux comptes - De la comptabilité d'entreprise à la comptabilité nationale - A paraitre</td><td>G 9904</td><td>B. CREPON - N. IUNG<br/>Innovation, emploi et performances</td></tr><tr><td>G 9705</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>R & D Investment, Patent Life and Patent Value<br/>An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level</td><td>G 9905</td><td>B. CREPON - Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Wages inequalities in France 1969-1992<br/>An application of quantile regression techniques</td><td>G 9905</td><td>B. CREPON - F. ROSENWALD<br/>Investissement et contraintes de financement: le poids du cycle<br/>Une estimation sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9706</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE - A. TOPIOL-BENSAÏD<br/>Les entreprises internationales en France: une analyse à partir de données individuelles</td><td>G 9906</td><td>C. BONNET - R. MAHIEU<br/>Microsimulation techniques applied to inter-generational transfers - Pensions in a dynamic framework: the case of France</td><td>G 9906</td><td>G 2000/06<br/>A. FLIPO<br/>Les comportements matrimoniaux de fait</td></tr><tr><td>G 9707</td><td>M. HOUBEBINE<br/>Polarisation des activités et spécialisation des départements en France</td><td>G 9907</td><td>H. MICHAUDON - C. PRIGENT<br/>Présentation du modèle AMADEUS</td><td>G 9907</td><td>F. ROSENWALD<br/>L'impact des contraintes financières dans la dé-cision d'investissement</td></tr><tr><td>G 9708</td><td>E. DUGUET - N. GREENAN<br/>Le biais technologique: une analyse sur don-nées individuelles</td><td>G 9908</td><td>J. ACCARDO<br/>Une étude de comptabilité générationnelle pour la France en 1996</td><td>G 9908</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1998</td></tr><tr><td>G 9709</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Analyzing a small French ECM Model</td><td>G 9909</td><td>X. BONNET - S. DUCHÈNE<br/>Apports et limites de la modélisation « Real Business Cycles »</td><td>G 9909</td><td>J.P. ZOYEM<br/>Contrat d'insertion et sortie du RMI<br/>Évaluation des effets d'une politique sociale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9710</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Formalizing the transition process: scenarios for capital accumulation</td><td>G 9910</td><td>C. BARLET - C. DUGUET - D. ENCAOUA - J. PRADEL<br/>The Commercial Success of Innovations<br/>An econometric analysis at the firm level in French manufacturing</td><td>G 9910</td><td>Ch. COLIN - FI, LEGROS - R. MAHIEU<br/>Bilans contributifs comparés des régimes de retraite du secteur privé et de la fonction publique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9711</td><td>G. FORGEOT - J. GAUTIÉ<br/>Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et proces-sus de déclassement</td><td>G 9911</td><td>P. CAHUC - Ch. GIANELLA - D. GOUX - A. ZILBERBERG<br/>Equalizing Wage Differences and Bargaining Power - Evidence form a Panel of French Firms</td><td>G 9911</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une décomposition du non-emploi en France</td></tr><tr><td>G 9712</td><td>E. DUBOIS<br/>High Real Interest Rates: the Consequence of a Saving Investment Disequilibrium or of an insufficient Credibility of Monetary Authorities?</td><td>G 9912</td><td>J. ACCARDO - M. JLASSI<br/>La productivité globale des facteurs entre 1975 et 1996</td><td>G 9912</td><td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une maquette analytique de long terme du marché du travail</td></tr><tr><td>G 9713</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques - 1996</td><td>G 9913</td><td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques - 1997</td><td>G 9913</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Une estimation de l'élasticité de l'emploi peu qualifié à son coût</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>G 9913</td><td>Division « Redistribution et Politiques Sociales »<br/>Le modèle de microsimulation dynamique DESTINIE</td></tr><tr><td>G 9914</td><td>E. DUGUET<br/>Macro-commandes SAS pour l'économétrie des panels et des variables qualitatives</td></tr><tr><td>G 9915</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Évolution des flux d'emplois en France entre 1990 et 1996: une étude empirique à partir du fichier des bénéfices réels normaux (BRN)</td></tr><tr><td>G 9916</td><td>J.Y. FOURNIER<br/>Extraction du cycle des affaires: la méthode de Baxter et King</td></tr><tr><td>G 9917</td><td>B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ - J. MAIRESSE<br/>Estimating price cost margins, scale economies and workers' bargaining power at the firm level</td></tr><tr><td>G 9918</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA - Ph. LAGARDE<br/>Productivity of hours in the aggregate production function: an evaluation on a panel of French firms from the manufacturing sector</td></tr><tr><td>G 9919</td><td>S. AUDRIC - P. GIVORD - C. PROST<br/>Évolution de l'emploi et des coûts par qualification entre 1982 et 1996</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/01</td><td>R. MAHIEU<br/>Les déterminants des dépenses de santé: une approche macroéconomique</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/02</td><td>C. ALLARD-PRIGENT - H. GUILMEAU - A. QUINET<br/>The real exchange rate as the relative price of nontrables in terms of tradables: theoretical investigation and empirical study on French data</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/03</td><td>J.-Y. FOURNIER<br/>L'approximation du filtre passe-bande proposée par Christiano and Fitzgerald</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/04</td><td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1999</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/05</td><td>B. CREPON - F. ROSENWALD<br/>Investissement et contraintes de financement: le poids du cycle<br/>Une estimation sur données françaises</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/06</td><td>A. FLIPO<br/>Les comportements matrimoniaux de fait</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/07</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Microsimulations of the retirement decision: a supply side approach</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/08</td><td>C. AUDENIS - C. PROST<br/>Déficit conjoncturel: une prise en compte des conjonctures passées</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/09</td><td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Équivalent patrimonial de la rente et souscription de retraite complémentaire</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/10</td><td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Ralentissement de l'investissement: petites ou grandes entreprises? Industrie ou tertiaire ?</td></tr><tr><td>G 2000/11</td><td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Temps partiel féminin et incitations financières à l'emploi</td></tr><tr><td>G2000/12</td><td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Local unemployment and wages</td></tr></table>
G2000/13 B. CREPON - Th. HECKEL
- Informatisation en France : une évaluation à partir de données individuelles
- Computerization in France: an evaluation based on individual company data

G2001/01 F. LEQUILLER
- La nouvelle économie et la mesure de la croissance du PIB
- The new economy and the measurement of GDP growth

G2001/02 S. AUDRIC
La reprise de la croissance de l'emploi profite-t-elle aussi aux non-diplômés ?

G2001/03 I. BRAUN-LEMAIRE
Évolution et répartition du surplus de productivité

G2001/04 A. BEAUDU - Th. HECKEL
Le canal du crédit fonctionne-t-il en Europe ? Une étude de l'hétérogénéité des comportements d'investissement à partir de données de bilan agrégées

G2001/05 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE - O. LOISEL
Testing the augmented Solow growth model: An empirical reassessment using panel data

G2001/06 R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT
Départ à la retraite, irréversibilité et incertitude

G2001/07 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2000

G2001/08 J. Ph. GAUDEMET
Les dispositifs d'acquisition à titre facultatif d'annuités viagères de retraite

G2001/09 B. CRÉPON - Ch. GIANELLA
Fiscalité, coût d'usage du capital et demande de facteurs : une analyse sur données individuelles

G2001/10 B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ
Évaluation des effets des dispositifs d'allégements de charges sociales sur les bas salaires

G2001/11 J.-Y. FOURNIER
Comparaison des salaires des secteurs public et privé

G2001/12 J.-P. BERTHIER - C. JAULENT
R. CONVENEVOLE - S. PISANI
Une méthodologie de comparaison entre consommations intermédiaires de source fiscale et de comptabilité nationale

G2001/13 P. BISCOURP - Ch. GIANELLA
Substitution and complementarity between capital, skilled and less skilled workers: an analysis at the firm level in the French manufacturing industry

G2001/14 I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Modelling demographic behaviours in the French microsimulation model Destinie: An analysis of future change in completed fertility

G2001/15 J.-P. ZOYEM
Diagnostic sur la pauvreté et calendrier de revenus : le cas du "Panel européen des ménages »

G2001/16 J.-Y. FOURNIER - P. GIVORD
La réduction des taux d'activité aux âges extrêmes, une spécificité française ?

G2001/17 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. RIEDINGER
Existe-t-il une asymétrie dans la transmission du prix du brut aux prix des carburants ?

G2002/01 F. MAGNIEN - J.-L. TAVERNIER - D. THESMAR
Les statistiques internationales de PIB par habitant en standard de pouvoir d'achat : une analyse des résultats

G2002/02 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2001

G2002/03 B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ?

G2002/04 G. BRILHAULT
- Rétropolation des séries de FBCF et calcul du capital fixe en SEC-95 dans les comptes nationaux français

- Retropolation of the investment series (GFCF) and estimation of fixed capital stocks on the ESA-95 basis for the French balance sheets

G2002/05 P. BISCOURP - B. CRÉPON - T. HECKEL - N. RIEDINGER
How do firms respond to cheaper computers? Microeconometric evidence for France based on a production function approach

G2002/06 C. AUDENIS - J. DEROYON - N. FOURCADE
L'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication sur l'économie française - un bouclage macro-économique

G2002/07 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Évaluation de trois réformes du Régime Général d'assurance vieillesse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2002/08 J.-P. BERTHIER
Réflexions sur les différentes notions de volume dans les comptes nationaux : comptes aux prix d'une année fixe ou aux prix de l'année précédente, séries chaînées

G2002/09 F. HILD
Les soldes d'opinion résument-ils au mieux les réponses des entreprises aux enquêtes de conjoncture ?

G2002/10 I. ROBERT-BOBÉE
Les comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation Destinie - Une comparaison des estimations issues des enquêtes Jeunes et Carrières 1997 et Histoire Familiale 1999

G2002/11 J.-P. ZOYEM
La dynamique des bas revenus : une analyse des entrées-sorties de pauvreté

G2002/12 F. HILD
Prévisions d'inflation pour la France

G2002/13 M. LECLAIR
Réduction du temps de travail et tensions sur les facteurs de production

G2002/14 E. WALRAET - A. VINCENT
- Analyse de la redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé
- Une approche par microsimulation

- Intragenerational distributional analysis in the french private sector pension scheme - A microsimulation approach

G2002/15 P. CHONE - D. LE BLANC - I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Offre de travail féminine et garde des jeunes enfants

G2002/16 F. MAUREL - S. GREGOIR
Les indices de compétitivité des pays : inter-prétation et limites

G2003/01 N. RIEDINGER - E.HAUVY
Le coût de dépollution atmosphérique pour les entreprises françaises : Une estimation à partir de données individuelles

G2003/02 P. BISCOURP et F. KRAMARZ
Création d'emplois, destruction d'emplois et internationalisation des entreprises industrielles françaises : une analyse sur la période 1986-1992

G2003/03 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2002

G2003/04 P.-O. BEFFY - J. DEROYON - N. FOURCADE - S. GREGOIR - N. LAÎB - B. MONFORT
Évolutions démographiques et croissance : une projection macro-économique à l'horizon 2020

G2003/05 P. AUBERT
La situation des salariés de plus de cinquante ans dans le secteur privé

G2003/06 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON
Age, salaire et productivité
La productivité des salariés décline-t-elle en fin de carrière ?

G2003/07 H. BARON - P.O. BEFFY - N. FOURCADE - R. MAHIEU
Le ralentissement de la productivité du travail au cours des années 1990

G2003/08 P.-O. BEFFY - B. MONFORT
Patrimoine des ménages, dynamique d'allocation et comportement de consommation

G2003/09 P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE
Peut-on mettre en évidence l'existence de rigidités à la baisse des salaires à partir de données individuelles ? Le cas de la France à la fin des années 90

G2003/10 M. LECLAIR - P. PETIT
Présence syndicale dans les firmes : quel impact sur les inégalités salariales entre les hommes et les femmes ?

G2003/11 P.-O. BEFFY - X. BONNET - M. DARRACQ-PARIES - B. MONFORT
MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

G2004/01 P. AUBERT - M. LECLAIR
La compétitivité exprimée dans les enquêtes trimestrielles sur la situation et les perspectives dans l'industrie

G2004/02 M. DUÉE - C. REBILLARD
La dépendance des personnes âgées : une projection à long terme

G2004/03 S. RASPILLER - N. RIEDINGER
Régulation environnementale et choix de localisation des groupes français

G2004/04 A. NABOULET - S. RASPILLER
Les déterminants de la décision d'investir : une approche par les perceptions subjectives des firmes

G2004/05 N. RAGACHE
La déclaration des enfants par les couples non mariés est-elle fiscalement optimale ?

G2004/06 M. DUÉE
L'impact du chômage des parents sur le devenir scolaire des enfants

G2004/07 P. AUBERT - E. CAROLI - M. ROGER
New Technologies, Workplace Organisation and the Age Structure of the Workforce: Firm-Level Evidence

G2004/08 E. DUGUET - C. LELARGE
Les brevets accroissent-ils les incitations privées à innover ? Un examen microéconométrique

G2004/09 S. RASPILLER - P. SILLARD
Affiliating versus Subcontracting: the Case of Multinationals

G2004/10 J. BOISSINOT - C. L'ANGEVIN - B. MONFORT
Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case

G2004/11 S. ANANIAN - P. AUBERT
Travailleurs âgés, nouvelles technologies et changements organisationnels : un réexamen à partir de l'enquête « REPONSE »

G2004/12 X. BONNET - H. PONCET
Structures de revenus et propensions différentes à consommer - Vers une équation de consommation des ménages plus robuste en prévision pour la France

G2004/13 C. PICART
Évaluer la rentabilité des sociétés non financières

G2004/14 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Les retraites du secteur public : projections à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2005/01 S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Conditions de départ en retraite selon l'âge de fin d'études : analyse prospective pour les générations 1945 à 1974

G2005/02 C. AFSA - S. BUFFETEAU
L'évolution de l'activité féminine en France : une approche par pseudo-panel

G2005/03 P. AUBERT - P. SILLARD
Délocalisations et réductions d'effectifs dans l'industrie française

G2005/04 M. LECLAIR - S. ROUX
Mesure et utilisation des emplois instables dans les entreprises

G2005/05 C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances à l'exportation de la France et de l'Allemagne - Une analyse par secteur et destination géographique

G2005/06 Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Economiques - 2004

G2005/07 S. RASPILLER
La concurrence fiscale : principaux enseignements de l'analyse économique

G2005/08 C. L'ANGEVIN - N. LAÎB
Éducation et croissance en France et dans un panel de 21 pays de l'OCDE
<table>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/09</td>
      <td>N. FERRARI<br/>Prévoir l'investissement des entreprises<br/>Un indicateur des révisions dans l'enquête de<br/>conjoncture sur les investissements dans<br/>l'industrie.</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/10</td>
      <td>P.-O. BEFFY - C. L'ANGEVIN<br/>Chômage et boucle prix-salaires :<br/>apport d'un modèle « qualifiés/peu qualifiés »</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/11</td>
      <td>B. HEITZ<br/>A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation<br/>in France and the USA: credible target VS<br/>inflation spiral</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/12</td>
      <td>O. BIAU - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - N. FERRARI<br/>Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de<br/>conjoncture et prévision macroéconomiques:<br/>Exemple de la prévision de la production<br/>manufacturière</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/13</td>
      <td>P. AUBERT - D. BLANCHET - D. BLAU<br/>The labour market after age 50: some elements<br/>of a Franco-American comparison</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/14</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND -<br/>P. DOUGRONN - P. POLLET<br/>L'enquête SHARE : présentation et premiers<br/>résultats de l'édition française</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/15</td>
      <td>M. DUÈE<br/>La modélisation des comportements démogra-<br/>phiques dans le modèle de microsimulation<br/>DESTINE</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2005/16</td>
      <td>H. RAOUI - S. ROUX<br/>Étude de simulation sur la participation versée<br/>aux salariés par les entreprises</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/01</td>
      <td>C. BONNET - S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY<br/>Disparités de retraite de droit direct entre<br/>hommes et femmes : quelles évolutions ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/02</td>
      <td>C. PICART<br/>Les gazelles en France</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/03</td>
      <td>P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON - P. ZAMORA<br/>Le rendement apparent de la formation continue<br/>dans les entreprises : effets sur la productivité et<br/>les salaires</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/04</td>
      <td>J.-F. OUVRARD - R. RATHELOT<br/>Demographic change and unemployment:<br/>what do macroeconometric models predict?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/05</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - J.-F. OUVRARD<br/>Indicateurs d'engagements implicites des<br/>systèmes de retraite : chiffrages, propriétés<br/>analytiques et réactions à des chocs<br/>démographiques types</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/06</td>
      <td>G. BIAU - O. BIAU - L. ROUVIERE<br/>Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing<br/>Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/07</td>
      <td>C. AFSA - P. GIVORD<br/>Le rôle des conditions de travail dans les<br/>absences pour maladie</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/08</td>
      <td>P. SILLARD - C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE<br/>Performances comparées à l'exportation de la<br/>France et de ses principaux partenaires<br/>Une analyse structurelle sur 12 ans</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/09</td>
      <td>X. BOUTIN - S. QUANTIN<br/>Une méthodologie d'évaluation comptable du<br/>coût du capital des entreprises françaises : 1984-<br/>2002</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<table>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/10</td>
      <td>C. AFSA<br/>L'estimation d'un coût implicite de la pénibilité du travail chez les travailleurs âgés</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/11</td>
      <td>C. LELARGE<br/>Les entreprises (industrielles) françaises sont-<br/>elles à la frontière technologique ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/12</td>
      <td>O. BIAU - N. FERRARI<br/>Théorie de l'opinion<br/>Faut-il pondérer les réponses individuelles ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/13</td>
      <td>A. KOUBI - S. ROUX<br/>Une réréprétrétation de la relation entre<br/>productivité et inégalités salariales dans les<br/>entreprises</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/14</td>
      <td>R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD<br/>The impact of local taxes on plants location<br/>decision</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2006/15</td>
      <td>L. GONZALEZ - C. PICART<br/>Diversification, recentrage et poids des activités<br/>de support dans les groupes (1993-2000)</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/01</td>
      <td>D. SRAER<br/>Allègements de cotisations patronales et<br/>dynamique salariale</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/02</td>
      <td>V. ALBOUY - L. LEQUIEN<br/>Les rendements non monétaires de l'éducation:<br/>le cas de la santé</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/03</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND<br/>Aspiration à la retraite, santé et satisfaction au<br/>travail : une comparaison européenne</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/04</td>
      <td>M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON<br/>Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur<br/>la croissance française ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/05</td>
      <td>C. PICART<br/>Flux d'emploi et de main-d'œuvre en France : un<br/>réexamen</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/06</td>
      <td>V. ALBOUY - C. TAVAN<br/>Massification et démocratisation de<br/>l'enseignement supérieur en France</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/07</td>
      <td>T. LE BARBANCHON<br/>The Changing response to oil price shocks in<br/>France: a DSGE type approach</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/08</td>
      <td>T. CHANEY - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR<br/>Collateral Value and Corporate Investment<br/>Evidence from the French Real Estate Market</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/09</td>
      <td>J. BOISSINOT<br/>Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts for<br/>France</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/10</td>
      <td>C. AFSA<br/>Interpréter les variables de satisfaction:<br/>l'exemple de la durée du travail</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/11</td>
      <td>R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD<br/>Zones Franches Urbaines: quels effets sur<br/>l'emploi salarié et les créations<br/>d'établissements ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2007/12</td>
      <td>V. ALBOUY - B. CRÉPON<br/>Aléa moral en santé : une évaluation dans le<br/>cadre du modèle causal de Rubin</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/01</td>
      <td>C. PICART<br/>Les PME françaises : rentables mais peu<br/>dynamiques</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<table>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/02</td>
      <td>P. BISCOURP - X. BOUTIN - T. VERGÉ<br/>The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices<br/>Evidence form the Loi Galland</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/03</td>
      <td>Y. BARBESOL - A. BRIANT<br/>Économies d'agglomération et productivité des<br/>entreprises : estimation sur données individuelles<br/>françaises</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/04</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - F. LE GALLO<br/>Les projections démographiques : principaux<br/>mécanismes et retour sur l'expérience française</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/05</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - F. TOUTLEMONDE<br/>Évolutions démographiques et déformation du<br/>cycle de vie active : quelles relations ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/06</td>
      <td>M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - L. CRUSSON<br/>Internationalisation et flux d'emplois : que dit une<br/>approche comptable ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/07</td>
      <td>C. LELARGE - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR<br/>Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints -<br/>Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee<br/>Program</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/08</td>
      <td>X. BOUTIN - L. JANIN<br/>Are Prices Really Affected by Mergers?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/09</td>
      <td>M. BARLET - A. BRIANT - L. CRUSSON<br/>Concentration géographique dans l'industrie<br/>manufacturière et dans les services en France:<br/>une approche par un indicateur en continu</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/10</td>
      <td>M. BEFFY - É. COUDIN - R. RATHELOT<br/>Who is confronted to insecure labor market<br/>histories? Some evidence based on the French<br/>labor market transition</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/11</td>
      <td>M. ROGER - E. WALRAET<br/>Social Security and Well-Being of the Elderly: the<br/>Case of France</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/12</td>
      <td>C. AFSA<br/>Analyser les composantes du bien-être et de son<br/> évolution<br/>Une approche empirique sur données<br/>individuelles</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2008/13</td>
      <td>M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET -<br/>T. LE BARBANCHON<br/>Microsimuler le marché du travail : un prototype</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/01</td>
      <td>P.-A. PIONNIER<br/>Le partage de la valeur ajoutée en France,<br/>1949-2007</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/02</td>
      <td>Laurent CLAVEL - Christelle MINODIER<br/>A Monthly Indicator of the French Business<br/>Climate</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/03</td>
      <td>H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - C. MINODIER<br/>Do Business Tendency Surveys in Industry and<br/>Services Help in Forecasting GDP Growth?<br/>A Real-Time Analysis on French Data</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/04</td>
      <td>P. GIVORD - L. WILNER<br/>Les contrats temporaires : trappe ou marchepied<br/>vers l'emploi stable ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/05</td>
      <td>G. LALANNE - P.-A. PIONNIER - O. SIMON<br/>Le partage des fruits de la croissance de 1950 à<br/>2008 : une approche par les comptes de surplus</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/06</td>
      <td>L. DAVEZIES - X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE<br/>Faut-il pondérer ?... Ou l'élémentle question de<br/>l'économétre confronté à des données d'enquête</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<table>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/07</td>
      <td>S. QUANTIN - S. RASPILLER - S. SERRAVALLE<br/>Commerce intragroupe, fiscalité et prix de<br/>transferts : une analyse sur données françaises</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/08</td>
      <td>M. CLERC - V. MARCUS<br/>Élasticités-prix des consommations énergétiques<br/>des ménages</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/09</td>
      <td>G. LALANNE - E. POULIQUEN - O. SIMON<br/>Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long<br/>terme</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/10</td>
      <td>D. BLANCHET - J. LE CACHEUX - V. MARCUS<br/>Adjusted net savings and other approaches to<br/>sustainability: some theoretical background</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/11</td>
      <td>V. BELLAMY - G. CONSALES - M. FESSEAU -<br/>S. LE LAIDIER - É. RAYNAUD<br/>Une décomposition du compte des ménages de<br/>la comptabilité nationale par catégorie de<br/>ménage en 2003</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/12</td>
      <td>J. BARDAJI - F. TALLET<br/>Detecting Economic Regimes in France: a<br/>Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using<br/>Mixed Frequency Data</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/13</td>
      <td>R. AEBERHARDT - D. FOUGÈRE -<br/>R. RATHELOT<br/>Discrimination à l'embauche : comment exploiter<br/>les procédures de testing?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/14</td>
      <td>Y. BARBESOL - P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN<br/>Partage de la valeur ajoutée, approche par<br/>données microéconomiques</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2009/15</td>
      <td>I. BUONO - G. LALANNE<br/>The Effect of the Uruguay round on the Intensive<br/>and Extensive Margins of Trade</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/01</td>
      <td>C. MINODIER<br/>Avantages comparés des séries des premières<br/>valeurs publiées et des séries des valeurs<br/>révisées - Un exercice de prévision en temps réel<br/>de la croissance trimestrielle du PIB en France</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/02</td>
      <td>V. ALBOUY - L. DAVEZIES - T. DEBRAND<br/>Health Expenditure Models: a Comparison of<br/>Five Specifications using Panel Data</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/03</td>
      <td>C. KLEIN - O. SIMON<br/>Le modèle MÉSANGE réestimé en base 2000<br/>Tome 1 - Version avec volumes à prix constants</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/04</td>
      <td>M.-É. CLERC - É. COUDIN<br/>L'IPC, miroir de l'évolution du coût de la vie en<br/>France ? Ce qu'apporte l'analyse des courbes<br/>d'Engel</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/05</td>
      <td>N. CECI-RENAUD - P.-A. CHEVALIER<br/>Les seuils de 10, 20 et 50 salariés : impact sur la<br/>taille des entreprises françaises</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/06</td>
      <td>R. AEBERHARDT - J. POUGET<br/>National Origin Differences in Wages and<br/>Hierarchical Positions - Evidence on French Full-<br/>Time Male Workers from a matched Employer-<br/>Employee Dataset</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/07</td>
      <td>S. BLASCO - P. GIVORD<br/>Les trajectoires professionnelles en début de vie<br/>active : quel impact des contrats temporaires ?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>G2010/08</td>
      <td>P. GIVORD<br/>Méthodes économétriques pour l'évaluation de<br/>politiques publiques</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
G2010/09 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. LAPÈGUE - E. POULIQUEN - M. BEFFY - M. GAINI Quelle croissance de moyen terme après la crise ?

G2010/10 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE La réaction des entreprises françaises à la baisse des tarifs douaniers étrangers

G2010/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD L'apport des méthodes à noyaux pour mesurer la concentration géographique - Application à la concentration des immigrés en France de 1968 à 1999

G2010/12 M. BARATON - M. BEFFY - D. FOUGÈRE Une évaluation de l'effet de la réforme de 2003 sur les départs en retraite - Le cas des enseignants du second degré public

G2010/13 D. BLANCHET - S. BUFFETEAU - E. CRENNER S. LE MINEZ Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 : principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats

G2010/14 D. BLANCHET - E. CRENNER Le bloc retraites du modèle Destinie 2 : guide de l'utilisateur

G2010/15 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON - S. DUPUCH - F. PUECH Des services échangés aux services échangeables : une application sur données françaises

G2010/16 M. BEFFY - T. KAMIONKA Public-private wage gaps: is civil-servant human capital sector-specific?

G2010/17 P.-Y. CABANNES - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - G. LALANNE - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Le modèle Mésange réestimé en base 2000 Tome 2 - Version avec volumes à prix chaînés

G2010/18 R. AEBERHARDT - L. DAVEZIES Conditional Logit with one Binary Covariate: Link between the Static and Dynamic Cases

G2010/01 T. LE BARBANCHON - B. OURLIAC - O. SIMON Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjoncturels des années 1986 à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE

G2011/02 C. MARBOT Une évaluation de la réduction d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile

G2011/03 L. DAVEZIES Modèles à effets fixes, à effets aléatoires, modèles mixtes ou multi-niveaux : propriétés et mises en œuvre des modélisations de l'hétérogénéité dans le cas de données groupées

G2011/04 M. ROGER - M. WASMER Heterogeneity matters: labour productivity differentiated by age and skills

G2011/05 J.-C. BRICONGNE - J.-M. FOURNIER V. LAPÈGUE - O. MONSO De la crise financière à la crise économique L'impact des perturbations financières de 2007 et 2008 sur la croissance de sept pays industrialisés

G2011/06 P. CHARNOZ - É. COUDIN - M. GAINI Wage inequalities in France 1976-2004: a quantile regression analysis

G2011/07 M. CLERC - M. GAINI - D. BLANCHET Recommendations of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report: A few illustrations

G2011/08 M. BACHELET - M. BEFFY - D. BLANCHET Projet l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus : une comparaison de trois modèles

G2011/09 C. LOUVOT-RUNAVOT L'évaluation de l'activité dissimulée des entreprises sur la base des contrôles fiscaux et son insertion dans les comptes nationaux

G2011/10 A. SCHREIBER - A. VICARD La tertiairisation de l'économie française et le renaltissement de la productivité entre 1978 et 2008

G2011/11 M.-É. CLERC - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Les inégalités entre générations depuis le baby-boom

G2011/12 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Évaluation de la transformation de la réduction d'impôt en crédit d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile en 2007

G2011/13 P. GIVORD - R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects: An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program

G2011/14 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. GIVORD - X. BOUTIN The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: the Case of the French "Bonus/Malus"

G2011/15 M. BARLET - M. CLERC - M. GARNEO - V. LAPÈGUE - V. MARCUS La nouvelle version du modèle MZE, modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro

G2011/16 R. AEBERHARDT - I. BUONO - H. FADINGER Learning, Incomplete Contracts and Export Dynamics: theory and Evidence form French Firms

G2011/17 C. KERDRAIN - V. LAPÈGUE Restrictive Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Likely Effects?

G2012/01 P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN - C. TREVIEN A Long-Term Evaluation of the First Generation of the French Urban Enterprise Zones

G2012/02 N. CECI-RENAUD - V. COTTET Politique salariale et performance des entreprises

G2012/03 P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Do Consumers Correctly Expect Price Reductions? Testing Dynamic Behavior

G2012/04 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD School as a shelter? School leaving-age and the business cycle in France

G2012/05 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD A scarred generation? French evidence on young people entering into a tough labour market

G2012/06 P. AUBERT - M. BACHELET Disparités de montant de pension et redistribution dans le système de retraite français

G2012/07 R. AEBERHARDT - P GIVORD - C. MARBOT Spillover Effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach

G2012/08 A. EIDELMAN - F. LANGUMIER - A. VICARD Prélèvements obligatoires reistant sur les ménages : des canaux redistributifs différents en 1990 et 2010

G2012/09 O. BARGAIN - A. VICARD Le RMI et son successeur le RSA découragent-ils certains jeunes de travailler ? Une analyse sur les jeunes autour de 25 ans

G2012/10 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie

G2012/11 A. MAUROUX Le crédit d'impôt dédié au développement durable : une évaluation économique

G2012/12 V. COTTET - S. QUANTIN - V. RÉGNIER Coût du travail et allègements de charges : une estimation au niveau établissement de 1996 à 2008

G2012/13 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Demand Estimation in the Presence of Revenue Management

G2012/14 D. BLANCHET - S. LE MINEZ Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms

G2013/01- F1301 T. DEROYON - A. MONTAUT - P-A PIONNIER Utilisation rétrospective de l'enquête Emploi à une fréquence mensuelle : apport d'une modélisation espace-état

G2013/02- F1302 C. TREVIEN Habiter en HLM : quel avantage monétaire et quel impact sur les conditions de logement ?

G2013/03 A. POISSONNIER Temporal disaggregation of stock variables - The Chow-Lin method extended to dynamic models

G2013/04 P. GIVORD - C. MARBOT Does the cost of child care affect female labor market participation? An evaluation of a French reform of childcare subsidies

G2013/05 G. LAME - M. LEQUIEN - P.-A. PIONNIER Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance

G2013/06 C. BELLEGO - V. DORTET-BERNADET La participation aux pôles de compétitivité : quelle incidence sur les dépenses de R&D et l'activité des PME et ETI ?

G2013/07 P.-Y. CABANNES - A. MONTAUT - P.-A. PIONNIER Évaluer la productivité globale des facteurs en France : l'apport d'une mesure de la qualité du capital et du travail

G2013/08 R. AEBERHARDT - C. MARBOT Evolution of Instability on the French Labour Market During the Last Thirty Years

G2013/09 J-B. BERNARD - G. CLÉAUD Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy

G2013/10 G. LAME Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?

G2013/11 P. CHONÉ - F. EVAIN - L. WILNER - E. YILMAZ Introducing activity-based payment in the hospital industry : Evidence from French data

G2013/12 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY Natural Disasters: Exposure and Underinsurance

G2013/13 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. COTTET - Y. DUBOIS - C. LELARGE - M. SICSIC French Firms in the Face of the 2008/2009 Crisis

G2013/14 A. POISSONNIER - D. ROY Households Satellite Account for France in 2010. Methodological issues on the assessment of domestic production

G2013/15 G. CLÉAUD - M. LEMOINE - P.-A. PIONNIER Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?

G2014/01 M. BACHELET - A. LEDUC - A. MARINO Les biographies du modèle Destinie II : rebasage et projection

G2014/02 B. GARBINTI L'achat de la résidence principale et la création d'entreprises sont-ils favorisés par les donations et héritages ?

G2014/03 N. CECI-RENAUD - P. CHARNOZ - M. GAINI Évolution de la volatilité des revenus salariaux du secteur privé en France depuis 1968

G2014/04 P. AUBERT Modalités d'application des réformes des retraites et prévisibilité du montant de pension

G2014/05 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - A. KATOSSKY The Impact of Hazardous Industrial Facilities on Housing Prices: A Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Hedonic Price Models

G2014/06 J.-M. DAUSSIN-BENICHOU - A. MAUROUX Turning the heat up. How sensitive are households to fiscal incentives on energy efficiency investments?

G2014/07 C. LABONNE - G. LAMÉ Credit Growth and Capital Requirements: Binding or Not?

G2014/08 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY et C. TREVIEN The Impact of Housing Subsidies on the Rental Sector: the French Example

G2014/09 M. LEQUIEN et A. MONTAUT Croissance potentielle en France et en zone euro : un tour d'horizon des méthodes d'estimation

G2014/10 B. GARBINTI - P. LAMARCHE Les hauts revenus épargnent-ils davantage ?

G2014/11 D. AUDENAERT - J. BARDAJI - R. LARDEUX - M. ORAND - M. SICSIC Wage Resilience in France since the Great Recession

G2014/12 F. ARNAUD - J. BOUSSARD - A. POISSONNIER - H. SOUAL Computing additive contributions to growth and other issues for chain-linked quarterly aggregates

G2014/13 H. FRAISSE - F. KRAMARZ - C. PROST Labor Disputes and Job Flows
G2014/14 P. GIVORD - C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - H. NAEGELE
How does fuel taxation impact new car purchases? An evaluation using French consumer-level dataset

G2014/15 P. AUBERT - S. RABATÉ
Durée passée en carrière et durée de vie en retraite : quel partage des gains d'espérance de vie ?

G2015/01 Aurélien POISSONNIER
The walking dead Euler equation
Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models