# La diffusion spatiale de la baisse de la fécondité en Égypte (1950-2006)

Yoann Doignon, Elena Ambrosetti, Sara Miccoli

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## To cite this version:

Yoann Doignon, Elena Ambrosetti, Sara Miccoli. La diffusion spatiale de la baisse de la fécondité en Égypte (1950-2006). Semaine Data-SHS, Dec 2022, Aix en Provence, France. 10.1186/s41118-021-00131-9. hal-03948491

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# LA DIFFUSION SPATIALE DE LA BAISSE DE LA FÉCONDITÉ EN EGYPTE (1950-2006)

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

Yoann Doignon

08/12/2022
# The spatial diffusion of fertility decline in Egypt (1950–2006)

Yoann Doignon

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

Elena Ambrosetti & Sara Miccoli

Genus 77, Article number: 23 (2021)

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## Abstract

While the Egyptian fertility transition has been widely addressed in the literature, few researches have studied the spatial dimension of fertility. Using population census data, the aim of this study is to describe and measure the evolution of the geography of fertility on a subnational scale (qism/markaz), focusing on the period between 1960 and 2006. We assumed that the decline in fertility had spread spatially through Egypt, the spatial diffusion occurring through two traditional mechanisms: contagion and hierarchical diffusion. Our results confirm our hypotheses and highlight the importance of studying the spatial diffusion of the fertility transition. This study is unique for the Egyptian context given the long period

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Sections

Figures

References

Abstract

Introduction

Background and literature review

Materials and methods

Results

Discussion and conclusions

Availability of data and materials

Notes

Reference

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>
ETAT DE L'ART

• P 90

• D u TFR

• F B

• A

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

Sources: DHS (various years for the data from 1988 to 2014) and EFS for the data from 1960 to 1980

→

place

1960.
# DIMENSION SPATIALE DE LA FÉCONDITÉ

* Peu de recherches sur la dimension spatiale de la fécondité

* 2 oppositions classiques :

* Urbain/rural

* Basse/Haute Egypte
# DIMENSION SPATIALE DE LA FÉCONDITÉ

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>Evolution of TFR in Egypt by type of governorate (1960-2014)</figcaption></figure>

Source: DHS (various years for the data from 1988 to 2014) and EFS for the data from 1960 to 1980

Author: Ambrosetti (2019)
# DIMENSION SPATIALE DE LA FÉCONDITÉ

* Peu de recherches sur la dimension spatiale de la fécondité

* 2 oppositions classiques :

* Urbain/rural

* Basse/Haute Egypte

* Quelques études :

* Weeks (2000) : fécondité du gouvernorat de Menoufia

* Weeks (2004) : fécondité de l'aire urbaine du Caire

* Bonneuil et Dassouki (2006) : évolution de la fécondité (1960-1996) pour 4905 territoires. Géographie de la baisse de la fécondité n'est pas abordée.
QUESTIONS DE RECHERCHE

• Où et when

• Dans quelle situation

• Y a-t-il une forme de la

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Neighborhood diffusion of innovation</figcaption></figure>

● Place of Creation Innovation (Centre of Diffusion)

← Direction of Extension Innovation (Axis of Diffusion)

■ Space Extensions Innovation First

□ Space Extensions Innovation Later

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Hierarchical diffusion of innovation</figcaption></figure>

● Center of First Level

◎ Center of Second Level

○ Center of Third Level

← Direction of Extension Innovation First

← -- Direction of Extension Innovation Later

l'information ?

d'information s'est

disponible de la

Forms of spatial diffusion of innovation
# DONNÉES ET MÉTHODES

## 1/ Données de recensements de la population

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>
DONNÉES ET MÉTHODES

1960

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

2006

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>
DONNÉES ET MÉTHODES

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

1 / Données 1

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>A</th><th>B</th><th>C</th><th>D</th><th>E</th><th>F</th><th>G</th><th>H</th><th>I</th><th>J</th><th>K</th><th>L</th><th>M</th><th>N</th></tr><tr><th></th><th>Serial_Nui</th><th>Code_196</th><th>Code_1996</th><th>Map_Cod</th><th>Code_1996+Map Code</th><th>Code_2006</th><th>Niveau?</th><th>Comment</th><th>Name</th><th>Arabic_Na</th><th>Type</th><th>Total_Population</th><th>Male_Illiterate</th><th>Male_Read</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>000000</td><td>000000</td><td></td><td>000000</td><td>000000</td><td>1</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>TOTAL EGYPT</td><td>اجمالي مصر</td><td></td><td>25984101</td><td>5048662</td><td>89188</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>010000</td><td>010000</td><td>010000</td><td>010000</td><td>010000</td><td>1</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Qâhira, al- (Cairo)</td><td>القاهرة</td><td>muhâfaza</td><td>3348779</td><td>385603</td><td>17831</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>010100</td><td>011300</td><td></td><td>011300</td><td>011300</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Azbâkiyya, al-</td><td>الجمهورية الأردنية</td><td>qism</td><td>64032</td><td>6744</td><td>589</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>31</td><td>010300</td><td>010800</td><td></td><td>010800</td><td>010800</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Khalîfa, al-</td><td>الخليفة</td><td>qism</td><td>161958</td><td>23075</td><td>936</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>63</td><td>010500</td><td>012400</td><td></td><td>012400</td><td>012400</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Zaytûn, al-</td><td>الزيتون</td><td>qism</td><td>100374</td><td>9758</td><td>427</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>77</td><td>010700</td><td>010700</td><td></td><td>010700</td><td>010700</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Sayyida Zaynab, al-</td><td>السيدة زينب</td><td>qism</td><td>253648</td><td>24226</td><td>1023</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>92</td><td>010800</td><td>011700</td><td></td><td>011700</td><td>011700</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Zâhir, al-</td><td>الظاهر</td><td>qism</td><td>99617</td><td>7673</td><td>706</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>99</td><td>010900</td><td>012500</td><td></td><td>012500</td><td>012500</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Matariyya, al-</td><td>المطرية</td><td>qism</td><td>160820</td><td>19837</td><td>544</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>114</td><td>011000</td><td>010400</td><td></td><td>010400</td><td>010400</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Ma`âdî, al-</td><td>المعادي</td><td>qism</td><td>83000</td><td>13703</td><td>792</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>132</td><td>011100</td><td>011000</td><td></td><td>011000</td><td>011000</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Mûskî, al-</td><td>الموسيقى</td><td>qism</td><td>38469</td><td>4597</td><td>186</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>138</td><td>011200</td><td>012200</td><td></td><td>012200</td><td>012200</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Wâylî, al-</td><td>الوايلي</td><td>qism</td><td>307173</td><td>31476</td><td>2061</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>157</td><td>011300</td><td>011600</td><td></td><td>011600</td><td>011600</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Bâb al-Sha`riyya</td><td>باب الشعرية</td><td>qism</td><td>153131</td><td>22261</td><td>999</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>174</td><td>011400</td><td>011200</td><td></td><td>011200</td><td>011200</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Bûlâq</td><td>بولاق</td><td>qism</td><td>202023</td><td>31768</td><td>1859</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>194</td><td>011500</td><td>010200</td><td></td><td>010200</td><td>010200</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Hulwân</td><td>حلوان</td><td>qism</td><td>94385</td><td>11881</td><td>670</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>203</td><td>011600</td><td>012000</td><td></td><td>012000</td><td>012000</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Rawd al-Farag</td><td>روض الفرح</td><td>qism</td><td>265139</td><td>26746</td><td>647</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>219</td><td>011800</td><td>010900</td><td></td><td>010900</td><td>010900</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>`Abdîn</td><td>عابدين</td><td>qism</td><td>94969</td><td>8103</td><td>417</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>230</td><td>011900</td><td>011100</td><td></td><td>011100</td><td>011100</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Qasr al-Nîl</td><td>قصر النيل</td><td>qism</td><td>43094</td><td>3273</td><td>167</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>237</td><td>012000</td><td>012800</td><td></td><td>012800</td><td>012800</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Misr al-Gadîda</td><td>مصر الجديد</td><td>qism</td><td>124774</td><td>7145</td><td>551</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>244</td><td>012100</td><td>010600</td><td></td><td>010600</td><td>010600</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Misr al-Qadîma</td><td>مصر القديمة</td><td>qism</td><td>212233</td><td>26049</td><td>819</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>256</td><td>020000</td><td>020000</td><td>020000</td><td>020000</td><td>020000</td><td>1</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Iskandariyya, al-</td><td>(Alexandrie الإسكندرية</td><td>muhâfaza</td><td>1516234</td><td>187232</td><td>8351</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>257</td><td>020100</td><td>021000</td><td></td><td>021000</td><td>021000</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Gumruk, al-</td><td>الجمرك</td><td>qism</td><td>140960</td><td>18869</td><td>475</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>277</td><td>020200</td><td>020200</td><td></td><td>020200</td><td>020200</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Raml, al-</td><td>الرمل</td><td>qism</td><td>157818</td><td>12775</td><td>578</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>288</td><td>020300</td><td>021200</td><td></td><td>021200</td><td>#N/A</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>Dikhîla, al-</td><td>الدخيلة</td><td>qism</td><td>22791</td><td>2558</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>294</td><td>020400</td><td>020600</td><td></td><td>020600</td><td>020600</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>`Attârîn, al-</td><td>العطارين</td><td>qism</td><td>71148</td><td>7329</td><td>379</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>292</td><td>020500</td><td>020900</td><td></td><td>020900</td><td>020900</td><td>2</td><td>not aggregate</td><td>abbân, al-</td><td>الابân</td><td>qism</td><td>77698</td><td>12482</td><td>1006</td></tr></tbody></table>
# DONNÉES ET MÉTHODES

## 1/ Données de recensements de la population

- 6 recensements : 1960, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006

- Qism/Markaz

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>

## 2/ Méthode d'estimation indirecte de la fécondité (Guilmoto, 2001)

- Child-Women Ratio

- Reconstruction des tendances de fécondité entre 1950 et 2006

## 3/ Cartographie thématique

- 1 carte par période de 5 ans
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /></figure>
FERTILITY DECLINE IN THE NILE DELTA (1950-2006)

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>

1950-1955

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

1955-1960

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

1976-1981

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

1981-1986

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

1986-1991

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

1991-1996

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

1996-2001

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /></figure>

2001-2006

Child Women
Ratio Index:

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_31.png" /></figure>

200 kilometres

Author: *** (2021)
Source: Population Censuses
©OECD-J.CAPMAS/©Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018

FERTILITY DECLINE IN EGYPT (1950-2006)

<figure><img src="image_32.png" /></figure>

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_33.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_34.png" /></figure>

1976-1981

FERTILITY DECLINE IN EGYPT (1950-2006)

<figure><img src="image_35.png" /></figure>

1950-1955

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /></figure>

1955-1960

<figure><img src="image_37.png" /></figure>

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_39.png" /></figure>

1976-1981

<figure><img src="image_40.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_41.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_42.png" /></figure>

1981-1986

<figure><img src="image_43.png" /></figure>

1986-1991

<figure><img src="image_44.png" /></figure>

1991-1996

<figure><img src="image_45.png" /></figure>

1996-2001

<figure><img src="image_46.png" /></figure>

2001-2006

<figure><img src="image_47.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_48.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_49.png" /></figure>
RESULTATS

4 caractéristiques de la géographie de la transition de la
fécondité en Egypte :

• Lieux où le contrôle de la fécondité apparaît

- Régions résistantes au changement démographique
1950-1955

<figure><img src="image_50.png" /></figure>

Author: Doignon (2019)

1955-1960

<figure><img src="image_51.png" /></figure>

Child Women
Ratio Index:

<figure><img src="image_52.png" /></figure>

Source: Population Census 1960 and 1976
©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_53.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_54.png" /></figure>

Author: Doignon (2019)

Source: Population Census 1960 and 1976
©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018
RESULTATS

4 caractéristiques de la géographie de la transition de la
fécondité en Egypte :

* Lieux où le contrôle de la fécondité apparaît

- Régions résistantes au changement démographique

* Deux mécanismes de diffusion spatiale : hiérarchique et proximité géographique
1955-1960

<figure><img src="image_55.png" /></figure>

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_56.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_57.png" /></figure>

Child Women
Ratio Index:

<figure><img src="image_58.png" /></figure>

Source: Population Census 1960 and 1976

©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018

Author: *** (2019)
1955-1960

<figure><img src="image_59.png" /></figure>

1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_60.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_61.png" /></figure>

Child Women
Ratio Index:

<figure><img src="image_62.png" /></figure>

Source: Population Census 1960 and 1976

©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018

Author: *** (2019)
RESULTATS

4 caractéristiques de la géographie de la transition de la
fécondité en Egypte :

• Lieux où le contrôle de la fécondité apparaît

• Régions résistantes au changement démographique

* Deux mécanismes de diffusion spatiale : hiérarchique et proximité géographique

* Une augmentation de la fécondité dans les années 1970 et 1980
<figure><img src="image_63.png" /><figcaption>1971-1976</figcaption></figure>

Author: *** (2019)

<figure><img src="image_64.png" /><figcaption>1976-1981</figcaption></figure>

Source: Population Census 1960 and 1976
©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.)- 2018

<figure><img src="image_65.png" /><figcaption>Child Women
Ratio Index:</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_66.png" /><figcaption>1986-1991</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_67.png" /></figure>
1966-1971

<figure><img src="image_68.png" /></figure>

1971-1976

<figure><img src="image_69.png" /></figure>

1976-1981

<figure><img src="image_70.png" /></figure>

1981-1986

<figure><img src="image_71.png" /></figure>

1986-1991

<figure><img src="image_72.png" /></figure>

1991-1996

<figure><img src="image_73.png" /></figure>

Author: Doignon (2019)

Child Women
Ratio Index:

<figure><img src="image_74.png" /></figure>

Source: Population Census 1960, 1976, 1986, 1996, ©CEDEJ-CAPMAS/@Hala Bayoumi (dir.) - 2018
1991-1996

<figure><img src="image_75.png" /></figure>

LOCAL SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION
OF FERTILITY IN EGYPT
(1991-1996)

<figure><img src="image_76.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_77.png" /></figure>
CONCLUSIONS

• La baisse de la fécondité commence au Caire, mais pas uniquement

* Originalité de l'Egypte : augmentation de la fécondité à partir du milieu des années 1970, mais pas dans tous les territoires.

* Diffusion spatiale de la baisse de la fécondité en Egypte à travers 2 mécanismes : diffusion par proximité géographique et diffusion hiérarchique
Merci pour votre attention !

<figure><img src="image_78.png" /></figure>

yoann.doignon@uclouvain.be

<figure><img src="image_79.png" /></figure>