In this vision, the citizens' mobility needs are depicted with the possibility of using an automated minibus combined with other modes of transport, depending on the citizens' preferences. In this regard, the AVs enable the first and last mile travel serving as mobility gap fillers for seamless transport. Furthermore, AVs are intended to compensate in the event of private and public transport failures (disruptions, accidents, etc.). This is expected to reduce the negative externalities and thereby make public transport more attractive for citizens (see details in Chap. 18 and Fournier et al., 2023). This includes automated vehicles in addition to the established means of transportation like bus, train, cab, carsharing, bicycle and others. This necessitates factors such as the interoperability of hardware and software devices providing standardised interfaces (APIs), coordination and management software, as well as management services provided by service aggregators and other intermediaries (see details in Chap. 18 and Fournier et al., 2023).

## 19.5 Description of the Transition Steps from the Status Quo to the Future Vision

Following the logic of the Big Picture of the transition management concept (see Fig. 19.2) representing the systematic development of a comprehensive transition plan conducted for each of the three identified scenarios (scenarios 1–3) for AV to ITS, the essential building blocks for a transition (*generic phase 3 or steps 2–7*) are represented in this section and illustrated by typical examples.

### 19.5.1 Identification of Success Factors and Obstacles (Step 2)

Deploying automated minibuses in all environments, both in city and rural areas, requires the technology to be able to handle all safety-related scenarios as well as to be effective, smart, connected and fully implemented within an ITS infrastructure. The *technical obstacles and success factors* are, e.g. related to the automated driving ecosystem, automated technologies, open data, open platforms and open API. More detailed elaborations on technical success factors and obstacles can be found in Chaps. 11 and 19 (limitations) of this book.

One key issue for AVs is the level 4 of automation (see Chap. 11) where safety drivers are not necessary any more in the automated vehicle to enable savings in salaries. This is relevant for the *economic performance* of the PTO. Business with automated minibuses is not profitable yet due to high driving-related personnel costs (see Chap. 12). The non-integration of automated minibuses with other means of transport within a MaaS would further reduce the attractivity for passengers. Another obstacle is the comparatively slow digital transformation of companies in many EU countries. Further details and issues on economic success factors are elaborated in Chaps. 12 and 19 (limitations) of this book.
Regarding the automated driving technology and connectivity-related demand, the predictive, adaptive and information sharing through vehicle communication with infrastructure and other vehicles improves driving performance and energy consumption. On the other hand, a highly connected vehicle means more data processing within and outside the vehicle, which may outweigh the sustainability of interconnected vehicles. If the automated minibuses are well utilised in terms of mileage and regularly used by passengers, they will present great advantages over individual vehicles from an environmental point of view. The suggested automated minibuses in a MaaS/ITS on contrary wants to satisfy the best citizen needs and the general interest in *leveraging positive externalities and lowering negative externalities*. Enabling positive externalities are possible due to the use of data, intermodality and interoperability. Further environmental issues are discussed in Chaps. 13, 14 and 19 (limitations) of this book.

An important *social success factor* is the high level of goodwill among potential users and a high level of satisfaction among users that can be translated into a high level of willingness to use the automated minibus (again). Most important factors for the social acceptance are the (perceived) need for improvement of the current situation and whether the proposed alternative service fulfils this need for improvement. Some critical points however encompass the highly sensitive issues of handling user data and data security and the ethical questions that constantly accompany automated driving. If automated minibuses could be a real ‘game changer’ making public and private transports individual and providing a real alternative to individual privately owned vehicles, it has the potential to increase effectiveness and flexibility for the users and increase the choice for the passenger, following general interest at the same time. Another alternative in the sense of an obstacle for automated minibuses in MaaS/ITS could be robotaxi which could satisfy best individual mobility needs without changing the means of transport but at the same time lower and privatise positive externalities and increase negative externalities through additional traffic and space. This is not serving general interest. A more detailed discussion on social issues is conducted in Chaps. 15 and 19 (limitations) of this book.

Like raised above, the beforementioned limitations are all influenced by the chosen governance. The governance for automated minibus and its ecosystem (especially regulations and standardisation for data, data security and privacy, technical interoperability, coopetition [cooperate to compete] of stakeholders, licensing on regional and national levels) is thus a central issue to enable automated minibuses’ technical ecosystem and the integration of automated minibuses in MaaS or ITS. Coopetition means when competition coexists with cooperation to use complementary resources cooperatively. In this sense the governance is crucial to balance the interests of stakeholders of an ecosystem (Fournier et al., 2023). However, there’s currently a lack of standards for open APIs and unaligned technical standards existing that might trigger coordination issues. More issues and details on this governance topic are discussed in Chaps. 16 and 19 (limitations) of this book.
## 19.5.2 Identification and Characterisation of Stakeholders
(Step 3)

For the transition of the scenarios from status quo to the future vision, it is precondition to identify, characterise and analyse the stakeholders and especially the key actors involved in testing and deploying automated minibuses for public transport within MaaS and ITS in European cities. The task hereby is to construct a strategic overview of the expectations, needs and impacts of the stakeholders and the connections between them. For a general overview of the stakeholders for the transition from status quo states to achieve the defined future vision, their characterisation and analysis, we refer to the general elaborations in the specific chapter (see Fig. 19.1 and Chap. 9: Final stakeholder Analysis and Stakeholder Strategies) within this book, comprising not only stakeholders of the status quo states and the future vision but also stakeholders which are relevant for the focused transition process.

The following discussion additionally focuses the characterisations of the main selected stakeholders of scenario 3 (AV in MaaS, see Fig. 19.2) due to the special relevance for the transition towards the future vision (AV in MaaS/ITS):

The *stakeholder group of manufacturers and software developers* is focused on developing and advancing the required technologies for the automated minibuses following the detailed work from Chap. 9 (Nemoto et al., 2021).

This is because *software providers* are directly involved in both the MaaS system and AVs, providing platforms that permit the operation and optimisation of automated mobility services, overseeing both scheduled and on-demand services. These cloud-based platforms act as an intermediary between the mobility providers and customers; therefore, they have a major influence on the overall project. In addition, it is very important to develop a trustworthy system where users take advantage of the rides in automated vehicles to pursue other activities without having to focus on the road. This generates added value for the user, which is what the project seeks to accomplish. Nevertheless, a close collaboration with other stakeholders, the public transport operators (*PTOs*), is also needed. Since the PTOs must operate these new services already during the transitional phase, a high level of involvement is required from them, particularly at the beginning. The PTOs are commissioned by the municipality, making them one of the stakeholders with a great amount of influence on the project. This is the case because the municipality is responsible not only for commissioning the PTOs but also for the requirements for the public transport system and for the requirements for the registration of the automated minibuses. They are equally charged with urban planning. Urban planners concentrate on decreasing urban space for private transport and preparing infrastructure for transformation by assisting the PTOs. In this way, these stakeholders define the rules of the game for the project launch (Nemoto et al., 2021). However, since the *city administration* is also subject to the *national government* and the *European Commission*, it is mainly the European Commission and the national government that shape the scope of action for the city government and consequently also for the PTOs (Nemoto et al., 2021). The European Commission can impose regulations and thereby support or
obstruct the development of the technology. National governments can step in and impact the project through regulations, incentives and rules (Nemoto et al., 2021).

Besides the actors of software development, the government and the city admin-
istration, the *manufacturers* of the automated minibuses are crucial stakeholders
which have a great effect on the implementation of the project. As they are in charge
of developing and offering mobility solutions, they have to build trust and accep-
tance for their vehicles among consumers, and they must secure a good market
position to establish their own company in the market. To achieve these three key
issues, they put their focus on the quick introduction of products into the public
system, where well-designed standards can reduce the total cost per vehicle while
increasing the speed of development (Nemoto et al., 2021). The *drivers' union* will
be involved in the implementation of the project by engaging in driver retraining
and education, optimised road conditions, safety and arrangements with govern-
ments and employers' organisations (Nemoto et al., 2021). However, drivers' unions
and environmental *non-governmental organisations* (NGOs) have up to now taken
a negative position towards automated minibuses, and to lessen the negative impacts
on the environment and society, these stakeholders should be implicated in decision-
making and discussions in a more purposeful way (Nemoto et al., 2021). The final
critical stakeholders are the *end users* of the system. The project will only succeed
if it is accepted by the users. To ensure that users alter their mobility behaviour in
the future, the automated vehicles must afford the flexibility and convenience of
customised mobility solutions (Nemoto et al., 2021).

Given that there are several more stakeholders, the following stakeholder groups with specific relevance in the context of transition are still enumerated for completeness: insurance companies, electricity charging infrastructure providers, energy providers, research institutes, financial services, recycling industry, emergency aids, industry lobbies, consulting companies and others.

19.5.3 *Definition of Transition Goals, Strategies and Business Models (Step 4)*

19.5.3.1 Transition Goals

The definition of transition goals depends on the individual status quo of the mobil-
ity ecosystem which determines the setting of the goals from this starting point to
the target (next scenario level or future vision). As shown in an evolutionary logic
of scenarios (see Fig. 19.2 of this chapter), an existing scenario 1 could be a prelimi-
nary stage of scenario 3, and an existing scenario 2 could be also a preliminary stage
of scenario 3 which would be a preliminary stage of a future vision itself. Against
the background of such a viewpoint, the identification of transition goals to the next
scenario level or even future vision level requires a very individual analysis. For this
reason, only a few broad categories of transition goals with some typical examples
will be mentioned here:
## Technological Implementation of Vehicles and Infrastructure

The possibilities for the means of transport and the AVs as well as for the AVs and the infrastructure to interact should be adjusted and increased. The achievement of level 4 vehicles and interoperability (open API) of AVs with other means of transport within a MaaS is important to leverage business benefits for the PTOs and better services for citizens.

## Software and Hardware Implementation

The software-technical and hardware-technical point of view comprises a fully automatic order processing of the booking, considering the personal preference for one of the transition goals. A further goal is to inform the user about the next mobility alternative entirely automatically in the case of a change in scheduling. The data should be exchanged between the mobility providers and the means of transport as well as the administration between different AV manufacturers without any problems.

## Customer-Oriented Needs

This should ensure a customer-optimised provision of seamless transport options without any waiting times. Furthermore, attention should be paid to take into account the transport needs of customers and to automatically offer a satisfactory solution in case of unforeseen events, like accidents or breakdown of transport means. The optimised transport system should reduce negative externalities.

### 19.5.3.2 Transition Strategies

Regarding the three scenarios of the transition management concept (see Fig. 19.2), the largest and most important innovation leap within the transition phase is made by the implementation of scenario 3 (AVs in MaaS—business ecosystem) especially in urban areas, where transition strategies play a central and crucial role. This is the mandatory precondition for creating the final ‘intelligence’-based innovation leap towards the future vision (AVs in ITS). In the subsequent section, the potential strategies for this scenario are described.

In the first possible transition strategy, *Collaboration of an Automated Minibus Provider with a Public MaaS Business Ecosystem*, the hypothesis is that the technology, solution and transition strategies of automated minibuses for public transport must be consistently aligned and integrated with the technology, solution and transition strategies of the public MaaS provider in all aspects of the service portfolio and business model modules. Therefore, the automated minibus strategies must be consequently specified and adapted with the public MaaS providers to ensure that this is a long-term perspective. In conclusion, an alignment with the strategy of the public MaaS business ecosystem orchestrator can be very beneficial in the event of success but can also entail a high risk in case of failure (Antonialli et al., 2021).

The second possible transition strategy describes the *Collaboration of an Automated Minibus Provider with a Private MaaS Business Ecosystem*. For this strategy, the hypothesis is that the technology, solution and transition strategies of
automated minibuses must be systematically aligned and integrated with the tech-
nology, solution and transition strategies of the private MaaS provider in all aspects
of the service portfolio and the business model modules. This illustrates that the
solution strategies are consequently specified and adapted to those of the private
MaaS provider to ensure that this is a long-term perspective. In summary, aligning
the strategy of the private MaaS business ecosystem orchestrator can be very benefi-
cial in case of success, but can also pose a high risk in case of failure (Antonialli
et al., 2021).

The third possible transition strategy that is possible is the positioning of an automated minibus provider against other competitor automated minibus providers which means a *Competition within a Public or Private MaaS Business Ecosystem*. The hypothesis here asserts that, ‘enhanced automated minibus strategies for USP and technical/business innovations as well as dedicated adaption to the strategies of an Public or Private MaaS Integrator in every facet of the offering portfolio and business model modules are necessary’ (Antonialli et al., 2021). This transition strategy concentrates primarily on the USPs in the domains of social and accessibility or in the fields of safety and security as well as on flexible and collaboration-based innovation strategies. Therefore, a strong focus on USP over the relevant competitors within the private and public MaaS business ecosystems as well as a focus on integrators’ success factors and an emphasis on the innovation strategy are feasible (Antonialli et al., 2021).

Finally, the fourth possible transition strategy is the development of an own new
business ecosystem and thus fosters the *Competition of the Own New (Private)
MaaS Business Ecosystem with other (Private and Public) MaaS Business
Ecosystems*. In general, the hypothesis for this strategy is that an automated minibus
provider which is currently collaborating with other automated minibus providers
within the public or private MaaS sub-business ecosystem has sufficient technology
and business potential and thus seeks to build his own MaaS business ecosystem.
This strategy demonstrates that automated minibus strategies are an essential core
for the development of an own MaaS business ecosystem as an integrating network
for automated minibuses and other modalities and offerings, like infrastructure,
along with innovation strategies to attain USPs. Therefore, this strategy puts empha-
sis on technology and business innovation to build a designated MaaS business
ecosystem and simultaneously a competitive USP strategy (Antonialli et al., 2021).

All five transition strategies aim to realise the desired future scenario AV in MaaS
(scenario 3) and represent alternative ways to achieve this.

19.5.3.3 Transition Business Models

Transition business models can be regarded as the conceptual refinement and rep-
resentation of the business implementation logic of the defined transition strategies
which is necessary for implementing the focused scenario 3 (AVs in MaaS). This is
precondition and the basis for additional ‘intelligence’-based business model
updates to achieve the future vision (AVs in ITS).
The following business models for the implementation of AVs in MaaS must be regarded.

In the general description of potential business models for scenario 3, it is assumed that the most likely future will be a customer- and citizen-centric intermodal MaaS ecosystem, where private and public MaaS providers connect different transport options into a seamless travel chain supported by AVs but not consisting of AVs only (Antonialli et al., 2021). In the following sections, the different business models for the scenario AV in MaaS are described in detail.

Firstly, the *partner network* is discussed; to make a business model work, close collaborations with key partners must be established which can serve various functions. In this business model, either a public or a private mobility provider or a consortium of both acts as a MaaS integrator of partners, like service providers, other public and private mobility providers and other IT infrastructure service providers. These can join the MaaS system as contributors and solution providers for the AVs in public transport (Antonialli et al., 2021). A partner network like this therefore combines the experience of many companies, but it also requires close collaboration and trust.

*Collaboration of an Automated Minibus Provider with a Public MaaS Business Ecosystem* can be interesting, since only in public tenders the cooperating companies can get competition. This is very favourable in a niche market or a small market segment giving them a secure position (Antonialli et al., 2021). In this business model, a collaborative strategic approach should be established with mutual alignment and integration of all business modules, where every facet of the offer portfolio is listed. Besides the solution customisation, close cooperation in the delivery and customer module, including joint solution development processes and joint marketing activities, is important for the partnership and business success (Antonialli et al., 2021). The automated minibus providers can deploy their whole solution portfolio to the public MaaS sub-business ecosystem and further reinforce their partner and niche position through specialisation. As a consequence, this is a very appealing business opportunity with long-term prospects (Antonialli et al., 2021).

In the third business model, *Collaboration of an Automated Minibus Provider with a Private MaaS Business Ecosystem*, automated minibus providers establish a close relationship with the private MaaS planner by focussing on complementary offerings or complementing the offerings of other partners through their high-level performance. This business scenario highlights that automated minibus providers can successfully apply their solution portfolio to the private MaaS business ecosystems and augment their partner and niche position through specialising on complementary offerings and high performance (Antonialli et al., 2021). This guiding cooperative and synergistic strategic approach produces a mutual alignment and integration of all business model modules, in all areas of the portfolio of offerings. Beyond solution customisation, close cooperation in the delivery and customer module, including joint solution development processes and joint marketing activities, is pertinent to partnership and business success (Antonialli et al., 2021).

In this paragraph, *Competition of an Automated Minibus Provider within a Public (A) or Private (B) MaaS Business Ecosystem* is evaluated. The providers for
automated minibuses can deploy their portfolio to the private and public MaaS busi-
ness ecosystem but simultaneously participate in competition with other solution
providers by specifying USP-focused strategies in the areas of performance leader-
ship, cost leadership etc. or business and technical innovation (Antonialli et al.,
2021). This business model is distinctive in its competitive approach to other auto-
mated minibus providers, resulting in a strong emphasis on technical/business inno-
vation and USP generation, while tightly aligning business modules in every facet
of the offering portfolio. It is marked by the competitive focus, in respect to the
innovation pressure, the effort to achieve the unique selling propositions and an
emphasis on integration (Antonialli et al., 2021).

In the business model Competition of the Own New (Private) MaaS Business Ecosystem with other (Private and Public) MaaS Business Ecosystems, automated minibus providers are in a competitive and challenging situation to preserve their technical focus and ongoing flexibility against competitors. Moreover, this entrepreneurial behaviour is defined by permanent technical and business innovation and the strive for market success and expansion (Antonialli et al., 2021). ‘The analysis of this Business Scenario shows that strong innovative and especially USP-driven/competitive Autonomous Minibus transportation offerings have to be developed and provided to customers (Value/Delivery/Customer modules) and at the same time a clear alignment and integration of all modules with those of Public (A) or Private (B) MaaS Business Ecosystems are focused’ (Antonialli et al., 2021). Furthermore, the entire MaaS business ecosystem must concentrate on supply, technology, business innovations and USPs that exist in other MaaS. In conclusion, in this business model, the business focus, the competitive focus on new innovations or USPs and the focus on other MaaS must occur at the same time (Antonialli et al., 2021).

For a structured representation of a transition business model for scenario 3 (AVs in MaaS), an adaption of the canvas method for business models<fnref n="1" /> shown in Fig. 19.4 as an example is useful for understanding the logic of the business model and deriv-
ing refined strategic recommendations for every module of the canvas:

19.5.4 Transition Recommendations and Measures (Step 5)

All of the subsequent recommendations relate to the implementation of AV in MaaS/
ITS (scenario 3) and have to be operationalised within the previously identified and
business models as far as possible.

For further identification and elaboration of transition recommendations and
measures, it is inevitable to define these terms precisely to create a clear and com-
mon understanding. In this concept we regard that one or more transition
recommendations could be related with one or more transition measures (n to m
relationship):

<footnote n="1">¹https://www.strATEGYzer.com/canvas</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_221.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 19.4 Exemplary transition business model representation for scenario 3 (AVs in MaaS)</figcaption></figure>

Transition recommendations are defined as general (rough) suggestions for transition strategies from experts based on previous elaborations from transition planning modules (results, conclusions documented within the AVENUE work package deliverables) as well as strategic experiences by experts, derived from and aligned with the transition goals, transition strategies and transition business models.

Transition measures are operational tasks derived, refined and concretised from the transition recommendations defined above. In this context they can be defined as concretely specified and implementation focused operational tasks described by all relevant organisational attributes (unique identifier, title, description, goal, deliverable, owner, start/end time, resources, dependencies, priority etc.) necessary to start planning and implementation activities.

### 19.5.4.1 Transition Recommendations

Aiming at a comprehensive and structured identification of transition recommendations based on the discussion of previous elaborations with experts to achieve the AVENUE Vision 2030, it is useful to create a mental framework (grid) where recommendations can be assigned to. An advantage of this framework is to specify recommendations in a rather disjunctive way or to discover new ones during application discussions with experts.

The architecture of this recommendation framework is shown in Fig. 19.5. This two-dimensional grid is compiled by four additive evolution modules of future mobility ('onion model') as vertical dimension (attention: not identical to scenarios in Fig. 19.2) and five PESTLE or SUMP categories as horizontal dimension.
<figure><img src="image_222.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 19.5** Framework for (transition) recommendations (Abbreviations: AV: Automated Vehicles; AM: Automated Minibuses; ITS: Intelligent Transport System; MaaS: Mobility-as-a-Service; PESTLE: Political—Economic—Social—Technological—Legal—Environmental)</figcaption></figure>

After a first identification and collection of transition recommendations, they are assigned to the respective fields within the designed framework. This task often requires a split, refinement and further focusing of recommendations together with the chance to identify further valuable recommendations from gaps or white spaces within the methodical grid which is aimed to be comprehensive, well-structured and consistent.

After inserting and updating the framework grid with transition recommendations, this represents a recommendation portfolio basis for prioritisation and scheduling towards a AVENUE Transition Roadmap for achieving the AVENUE Vision 2030.

### 19.5.4.2 Roadmap of Recommendations for Viable AV in MaaS Business

In the following we provide a summary of the main recommendations within a roadmap (from status quo to a vision for 2030) (see Fig. 19.6) to achieve viable AV in MaaS business (efficiency). Although Sect. 19.5.2 specified different transition strategies and business models within the AV in MaaS deployment area, the following recommendations include the entirety of these strategies and business models. They are designed to be generally applied to develop a viable AV in MaaS business solution and don't detail out different transition strategies.

In the deliverable at hand, this vision is analysed in detail with all the tools of a business model such as the business canvas and the SWOT analysis. However, the costs for this cannot be calculated and presented yet in detail because it is currently a vision that follows the European CCAM vision and will not become reality soon. We anticipate that the large-scale deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) will not become reality in the next 3 years, due to barriers and shortcomings in the technology, high depreciations and legal framework. Too many prerequisites must be
<figure><img src="image_223.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 19.6 Roadmap (overview) of the main recommendations for viable AV in MaaS business</figcaption></figure>
fulfilled. It is, for example, common sense that viable AV in MaaS business is only
possible if security drivers can be reduced soon in the course of time and replaced
by supervisor, but this is currently neither technically nor legally possible at every
location in Europe. However, both technology and legal framework are evolving
very fast, and we expect that in the next 2-3 years (and at the latest in the time hori-
zon of our Vision 2030), the majority of the issues can be resolved when following
the recommendations.

Accordingly, we will present first in summary, then in overview points, a road-
map for achieving this cost-attractive vision. We do not interpret the topic of viable
AV in MaaS business in the narrow sense of balance-sheet able costs, as these are
currently not yet presentable, but rather in a broader sense including all cost-related
factors; we understand our objective beyond the TCO (total cost of ownership)
approach not only as a contribution to the consolidation of the total cost of mobility
(TCM) but also as a contribution to economic efficiency—cost coverage—and
profitability.

The roadmap for viable AV in MaaS business targets all the related actors in the public transportation. Specifically, at the lowest level we have the vehicle manufacturers, who should be able to develop and market at competitive prices large numbers of vehicles, creating profit for their companies. We then have the service provision companies, developing fleet management solutions, who should be able to provide their services to the public transport operators (PTOs) and public transport agencies as commercial for-profit companies. Next, we have the PTOs/PTAs that are in general funded by public funding and have as target to provide high-quality public transportation services, with as low costs as possible for the financing government or municipal authorities, taking into account social and environmental targets defined by the public authorities. Finally, we have the citizens who as users require an affordable public transportation service with a high level of service quality. Our roadmap covers each of the above actors, with different time horizons. However, as we cannot give recommendations to citizens, a few for the EU itself are included below, in addition to the others.

**Roadmap: Step 1–2022–2024**

R_2022-24.1 (Recommendation for OEM):

Freeze the vehicle design to a standardised model

Today vehicle manufacturers are producing permanent beta-versions of the auto-
mated minibuses, with continuous changes and medications. As result each vehicle
unit is a prototype almost individually constructed, which results in very high unit
costs. The manufacturer should freeze the design and implantation to a standard
model and proceed so that they can next advance to chain production, bring the
production cost per vehicle to a fraction of today’s price and open the way for a
large number of orders by the PTOs/PTAs. Currently, there are neither economies of
scale nor economies of scope in the market, which are urgently needed for
cost-attractiveness.

R_2022-24.2 (Recommendation for OEM/PTOs/PTAs):

**Intensify the use of data and AI to reach SAE level 4 and enable profitable business models for OEMs, PTOs and related service providers**
The improvement of road behaviour requires solid automated recognition of different events and situations. This can only be done with the use of AI technologies. However, AI technologies require relevant data, coming from the deployment environments. Today, the vehicles produced in the European Union do not have enough data coming from European streets, thereby hindering the substitution of the safety driver by a back-office supervisor. The collection and analysis of the massively required relevant data are also hindered by the misunderstanding of the GDPR rules and restrictions by the PTOs and PTAs, who simply prohibit the mass collection and analysis of the data collected (or being able to be collected) by the deployed vehicles. In addition, the effort required by the manufacturers to analyse the data is beyond their capacity, and the pavement towards profitable business models for PTOs is not realistic. Thus, from one side the public and EU authorities should provide clarifications on the GDPR overreach, reassuring the European OEMs to develop GDPR compliant AI and enable a GDPR performant AI-based ecosystem for EU CCAM mobility. GDPR compliance for AI should become mandatory for non-European competitors to ensure a symmetry in competition with home competitors.

R_2022-24.3 (Recommendation for OEM):

**Clarify the business model: choose between selling vehicles and providing services**

Today vehicle manufacturers have an unclear business model that is neither this of a car seller nor of a service provider. The manufacturers try to make their profit from both selling vehicles (hardware) and providing required services (from commissioning to maintenance and supervision). As a result, the overall cost to the PTO/PTA is both high as CAPEX and as OPEX making any large-scale acquisition plan extremely costly. Past experience (in the 1970s–1990s) has shown that equivalent companies (like IBM in the 1970s and 1980s) were able to dominate the market by providing a services model (software rental) and providing the hardware at cost price or even free of cost (but with long-term service and software leasing contract), whereas car companies were making their business by selling hardware only. This means vehicle manufacturers have to identify, analyse and design business strategies/opportunities and models for profitable automated minibus applications, for example, the use of existing infrastructure data to improve the behaviour of the vehicle in the street and its attractiveness.

R_2022-24.4 (Recommendation for OEM/PTOs/PTAs):

**Create alliances and/or partnerships with automated minibus: ‘competitors’ in Europe (coopetition) in order to set common targets to win the European market**

Automated minibuses are manufactured today in many countries around the world, from China to the USA, where the state (China) and private companies (USA) are investing billions per year. In Europe the relevant companies do not have the possibility to raise even a fraction of the USA and Chinese investments. It is more than urgent for the different manufacturers to align their efforts to provide solutions adapted to the European market, before the international players take over the European market offering lower prices. The fragmentation of the European
market of vehicle manufacturers and the lack of communication and collaboration
do not further allow the creation of a dynamic and sustainable business ecosystem
in order to be competitive with non-European manufacturers by offering competi-
tive prices. In order to assure supply chains for vehicle components and to avoid a
market consolidation via bankruptcies, vehicle manufacturers should identify, anal-
yse and design partnering strategies/opportunities with service providers and create
new partner-oriented business models for a profitable automated minibus system.
This could be interesting in particular for open API, open data and open protocols.
The recommendations in this deliverable can be implemented independently, but it
would be best to be considered together to optimise cost-effectiveness, where each
manufacturer can specialise in the areas of its best expertise, thus reducing costs.

R_2022-24.5 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Redefine and integrate automated minibuses (shared vehicles and services providing ecological, social and cost benefits) into the sustainable urban mobility planning of cities (SUMP), defining target areas for initial large-scale deployments

With a laissez-faire strategy, the development from status quo to a mobility sys-
tem with AVs could end in more individual private transport and weakening of pub-
lic transport. Considering that the urban public transport mobility strategy
implementation can take 10 years from the moment of its definition, PTOs and
PTAs must integrate in their development/adaptation urban mobility strategic plan-
ning the use and deployment of AVs, even if the technology is not yet to the expected
level. With a 10 years lead time to implementation, PTOs/PTAs need to anticipate
as early as possible the future deployments and initiate the required studies to evalu-
ate costs, define possible deployment areas and define targeted service levels.

The AVENUE environmental impact assessment shows that if the automated
minibuses are well utilised in terms of mileage and regularly used by passengers,
they will present great advantages over individual vehicles. Therefore, it is strongly
recommended to integrate automated minibuses in the strategic planning of a MaaS/
ITS ecosystem to enable positive externalities (through increased citizen choice and
inclusiveness, improved fleet efficiency, saving natural resources and energy etc.)
and lower external costs (ecological advantage). The governance will decide if the
use of automated minibuses is environmentally friendly and sustainable or not.
Therefore, a system should be created in which it is standard that vehicles and ser-
vices are shared, which would also improve the ratio of costs to paying customers.

R_2022-24.6 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Strengthen the positive attitude towards a high acceptance, and initiate
information campaigns and nudges towards citizens and decision-makers to
present advantages, issues and changes to achieve the citizens' intended use of
public transportation, on-demand services and in particular automated mini-
buses in MaaS

The transition from fixed line and fixed time-table public transportation towards an on-demand and door-to-door public transportation is a major paradigm change for the passengers. If this is not well explained, it could create a negative/rejection attitude of the citizens. An important finding of the AVENUE social impact assessment is that
(potential) users present a positive and receptive attitude towards the automated mini-buses. Therefore, there is potential to convince others through well-targeted communication campaigns, especially in social media. It is a recognised principle of economics that increasing demand, e.g. through more customers due to a higher acceptance of shared mobility with automated minibuses, could reduce the cost per customer. However, erroneous use of automated minibus-based mobility can drastically increase operational and external costs (e.g. using the automated minibuses for very short distances or as substitute to public mass transport (tramway, trains, etc.), as it is the case when automated minibuses are used like robotaxis) and lower service quality. In this case an information campaign should be started as soon as possible to inform the citizens of the benefits of the new models of transport and the related issues. Create positive incentives towards the use of automated minibuses (nudges).

R_2022-24.7 (Recommendation for the European Union):

**Propose an EU-wide standardised and common certification methodology for automated minibuses, reducing costs and promoting cross-country markets**

Throughout Europe each country is setting up its own certification process and rules for automated vehicles. As a result, the same vehicle needs to be homologated under different rules in each deployment country. Although steps have been already made to simplify the process, a European-wide regulation (as is the case with traditional vehicles) will strongly promote the market, reduce the acquisition costs and allow cross-country commerce of AVs and of their components like batteries.

R_2022-24.8 (Recommendation for the European Union/PTOs/PTAs):

**Ensuring symmetry in competition between public and private PTOs through avoiding closed ecosystems and respecting European laws like GDPR, DSA and DMA**

We recommend open platforms, open APIs and open data which respect GDPR, DSA and DMA to avoid closed private ecosystems and enable fair competition in the mobility market. To this end, the EU has to create the regulatory and governance conditions for the PTAs to orchestrate a fair and balanced competition on the local, national and EU levels (seamless interoperability) and thus create a European mobility ecosystem which serves the general interest and promotes a European mobility industry ecosystem. The EU has to make laws which anticipate automated minibuses in MaaS/ITS and anticipate the speed of legislative processes. Once closed ecosystems are created with gatekeepers as is the case in several other European industries, it will be too late to regulate the mobility market ex post due to the already created facts and dominant positions.

**Roadmap: Step 2-2024-2026**

R_2024-26.1 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

**Define a roadmap for the design and implementation of an adequate technical urban infrastructure, integrating automated minibuses (traffic lights, charging station etc.) in it to increase the safety and the ability to get the safety driver out and the related costs**

A roadmap for the design and implementation of an adequate technical infrastructure regarding battery charging, communication infrastructure/data exchange, vehicle-related services and maintenance needs to be defined and included in the
sustainable urban development planning (SUMP), with an at least 10 years' horizon. The PTAs must be coordinated with urban planning authorities to identify how the city will develop and how the required infrastructure will be installed. This planning will be required in order to secure the required funding and authorisations. The urban planning should take into account the needs of automated minibuses for accurate geolocalisation (centimetric) and identify shadow areas where additional equipment will need to be installed (e.g. RTK (real-time kinematic) positioning, roadside sensorics on traffic lights (vehicle to infrastructure, V2I; vehicle to vehicle, V2V; or vehicle to passenger, V2P)). Furthermore, cybersecurity as well as physical security of the installations should be integrated in the planning, and backup solutions as well as disaster recovery solutions should be anticipated. Automated minibuses in MaaS or better later automated minibuses in ITS should thus integrate the infrastructure as a long-term strategy to create inherent resilience of all the transport system.

*R_2024-26.2 (Recommendation for Service Providers):*

**Value-added in-vehicle services (for passenger comfort, safety and security, navigation etc.) to increase the acceptance by the citizen and the attractiveness of services**

Based on the local needs, regulations and target service quality, a series of passenger in-vehicle services, replacing the driver offered services, must be planned before the deployment of a full-scale, driverless public transportation service. The in-vehicle services should be able to provide easily accessible alternatives to the services offered by the bus driver, preserving the passenger privacy, and enhancing the security of the passengers in the vehicle. A way for the passenger to interact with a human assistant should be available in the vehicle. The services will need to be supported by target information campaign and clearly indicated in the vehicle.

*R_2024-26.3 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs/European Union):*

**Plan the transition from driver-based operation to driverless operation of vehicles, from the point of view of today's bus drivers**

The suppression of the bus drivers will be seen as a threat of job losses of the current drivers. A medium- to long-term transition plan should be developed for the gradual reduction of the number of drivers and their conversion to back-office operators and intervention team operators. This plan should consider the natural departure of personnel (e.g. retirement), the lack of bus drivers and the lack of attractiveness of the bus driver profession and organise the medium- to long-term re-education of the drivers to the new functions.

*R_2024-26.4 (Recommendation for the European Union):*

**Establishment of an open legislative database to make the different European regulations more transparent and to ease the diffusion of CCAM in MaaS in the European Union**

The fragmentation of European legislation in terms of deployment of CCAM vehicles is an administrative obstacle for pan-European deployment of innovative mobility services, especially for SMEs, who do not have the means to study the differences between EU countries' legislation. A legislative database at European level (similar to the existing platforms in the USA) which brings up-to-date and real-time information about the fast-growing AV legislation on local, state and regional levels
is missing, and it should be in place and operational by 2026. This could simplify the planning of all stakeholders, like vehicle manufacturers, deployers of automated minibuses, transport operators, states, municipalities etc., and encourage the diffusion of automated minibus technologies and the improvement of the transport system.

*R_2024-26.5 (Recommendation for PTOs, Vehicle AV Manufacturer (OEMs), AV Service Providers):*

**Disclosure of the MaaS integration-relevant AV goals, offerings and needs of PTOs, OEMs and other stakeholders of the AV in MaaS ecosystem**

Currently minibus manufacturers (OEMs) and AV service manufacturers to realise automation of the vehicles are facing huge troubles with businesses and offerings which are not or not adequately aligned to the needs of PTOs. Thus, OEMs create multiple own AV ecosystems which require a lot of resources but cannot be integrated into a common MaaS ecosystem and into one common citizen-centric MaaS application. As a consequence, these AVs are often applied as robotaxis which are in competition with PTOs and create potentially a weakening of the PTOs and additional traffic and congestion costs particularly in cities. Open standardised API and open data are thus necessary for the AVs to be interoperable in a MaaS ecosystem and enable cooperation with other MaaS partners. Through disclosure of technical specifications and interfaces (APIs) and long-term sourcing and contract strategy from the PTOs, a long-term strategy becomes possible for all the stakeholders of the transport ecosystem of the city. In particular, the OEM strategy and accordingly the financing of the development of AV (e.g. SAE level 4, interoperability etc.) for the PTO of the MaaS can be eased. An alternative would be governmental financing as is the case in China or strong financing companies (like US-GAFAs) which are more interested in capturing value through closed (centralised, non-federated) ecosystems.

**Roadmap: Step 3–2026–2028**

*R_2026-28.1 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):*

**Present a plan for an integrated citizen-centric mobility ecosystem, taking into account all available/possible transport modes, in order to offer a unique integrated solution for passenger mobility needs**

Different mobility modes are becoming available in cities, each with its own targets and different passenger needs. At the same time, many mobile phone applications are appearing, giving access to the different mobility modes. However, today these mobility solution modes represent competing mobility solutions, instead of complementary mobility solutions.

A plan should thus be created for seamless multimodal forms of transport, where automated minibuses play a central role as mobility gap filler, enabling spatial (e.g. area instead of line in particular in time of low demand), temporal (e.g. on-demand) and functional flexibility (door-to-public transportation network, part of the public transport network, door-to-door) similarly attractive to a private car.

*R_2026-28.2 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):*

**Develop and promote mobile apps for seamless on-demand door-to-door transport and accessible to all types of citizens (inclusion)**

Before the deployment of automated minibuses, aggregator apps for seamless and efficient on-demand door-to-door journeys for citizens should be developed and
extensively tested, especially for passengers with special needs. All mobility modal-
ities need to be integrated in a single app, increasing thus the mobility offer. The
offer could in particular be adapted to all passengers depending on the persona
(mobility for work or for leisure), weather (a passenger would probably prefer the
automated minibuses in case of rain instead of bicycle) etc. and of the PRM needs
and capabilities. In order to provide an integrated citizen-centric mobility ecosystem, the passenger capabilities should be integrated in the app service (e.g. we can-
not propose to an 85-year-old person to complete his trip using a bicycle!) which
will suggest and reserve the most adapted mobility solution.

R_2026-28.3 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Create a plan, identifying which and how data can be provided as open data for value-added services

The operation of automated minibuses in public transportation will generate large quantities of data which until now were very difficult to collect—from exact passenger trips, to road conditions (congestion, speed etc.), to passenger incidents and vehicle status. These data, if exploited correctly, will allow, e.g. service quality improvement, trip optimisation, energy consumption reduction but also optimisation of automated minibus fleets, infrastructure, city planning etc. However, in order to promote the creation of new services and new mobility models, the data should become available to third parties. A plan must be ready, defining which data can be available (preserving any possible sensible passenger privacy information) and how third parties will be able to access and use them. Detailed specifications and formats should be easily available and published so that the interested parties can start the development of analytical tools and services. This has to be regulated by the ecosystem provided by the PTA in the privacy and security concept.

R_2026-28.4 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Management concept for coopetitive public/private PTO collaborations to
increase the complementarities of the means of transports and the efficient use
of the fleets and of the transport system as a whole

In the long run, innovations and new mobility services will be developed from
different private companies. These innovations will need to be integrated to the
overall mobility offer to enable increase in efficiencies and allow a citizen-centric
approach. PTAs will thus need to design a management concept for a balanced eco-
system for public/private PTO collaborations to increase the complementarities of
the means of transports and the efficient use of the fleets through the use of data and
of the transport system as a whole.

R_2026-28.5 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Create and align PTO and other stakeholder (e.g. service providers, OEMs etc.) business models for the transport system

Providing high-quality, low-cost, on-demand, door-to-door public transportation services will eventually have a major impact on the mobility business in the urban environment. Taxi services, private transport services and even delivery services will be highly impacted. The PTAs should clarify the perimeter of the services that will be provided by the automated minibuses, so that they would impact the existing business models of other mobility stakeholders. For example, in order to avoid
competition with taxi services (including robotaxis), door-to-door services can be
limited to a certain distance or time while imposing no limits to door-to-hub auto-
mated minibus-based transport.

R_2026-28.6 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs):

Define an attractive tariff system and incentives for citizens to favour seam-
less driverless transport

One of the key goals of the deployment of automated minibuses in door-to-door, on-demand urban mobility is to provide citizens an efficient mobility service and ‘pull’ them to abandon the use of a private car without coercive ‘push’ policy but with an attractive mobility offer (the so-called pull strategy). However, one of the key elements to this transition is the tariffing model. PTAs and PTOs should therefore create an attractive tariff system together and provide incentives for citizens to utilise the multimodal MaaS system instead of utilising privately owned cars or robotaxis. The proposed tariffs could, e.g. be compatible with the overall cost for using a private car, including parking fees, infrastructure costs, energy consumption, urban toll etc.

R_2026-28.7 (Recommendation for OEM/Service Provider/PTOs/PTAs):

Adopt and develop ecosystems based on standardised open APIs and open
protocols

A key element in the development of interoperability of all the means of trans-
port, their platforms and apps, but also of a competitive market, is the use of stan-
dardised interfaces and protocols that open the doors to innovation, marked
competition, increased quality and price reductions. In order to avoid a winner-
takes-it-all situation, where a major non-European company dominates the market,
European manufacturers (OEMs) should propose, national authorities should adopt
and PTOs, app providers etc. should use open standards for APIs and protocols.

R_2026-28.8 (Recommendation for National and Local Authorities):

Design and establish a novel governance concept for citizen-centric auto-
mated minibuses in a MaaS to serve general interest and the creation of the
required ecosystem to support economically viable deployments

The deployment of CCAM will require the creation of a local, regional or
national ecosystem, where key expertise can be found. This will require a dual
action from the authorities, in both the legislative and educational domains.

On the level of city or national/regional governments, it will be necessary to design,
implement and supervise individual technical certification and licensing concepts for
automated minibuses and their integration into MaaS according to respective regula-
tions and selected standards. However, the required expertise, be it technical or regula-
tory, must be available in the local ecosystem. For this, relevant authorities will need
to create technical trainings and integrate at different levels of education the required
courses and programmes to create the locally needed expertise.

This implementation will enable economic efficiency and, above all, social and
ecological benefits that are only possible through sensitive mobility governance. To
do so, a balance between individual and general interest must be found for the stake-
holders on the city level.

Roadmap: Step 4–2028–2030

R_2028-30.1 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs/European Union):
## Integration of automated minibuses in low- and medium-scale areas and in MaaS/ITS to satisfy citizen needs

By 2030, and based on the strategy that was developed earlier, the first medium-scale deployments of AVs should become available in selected targeted areas with low and medium mobility demand, fully integrated to the MaaS services. The deployment should address the needs in rural and suburban areas where public transport is weak and enable flexibility which is nearly as convenient but much cheaper than a private car. The target being the integration of automated minibuses to other means of transport within a MaaS (through an app also adapted for persons with special needs) would increase the attractiveness for passengers in terms of time, space, function and usability. Beyond this inclusive approach, starting in rural and suburban areas would further have the advantage to raise the level of education with a lower technical complexity.

R_2028-30.2 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs/European Union):

## Increasing trust and reliability of the mobility system for the citizen by AI-based value-adding user experience

As most of the offered mobility services will be eventually based and/or make use of a AI-based real-time self-optimisation, leading to a better information situation and permanently optimised journey for citizens, it is of major importance for the PTA/ PTOs to have established, first, a strategy to reply to the questions of the citizens regarding data usage and how decisions are taken and, second, a ‘disaster recovery’ strategy to reply to incidents and failures of the services, which will eventually increase the positive user experience and trust into the mobility in ITS ecosystems.

R_2028-30.3 (Recommendation for PTOs/PTAs/European Union):

## Use the automated minibus in ITS to improve the flexibility, the resilience and the efficiency of the transport system as a whole

By the application of AI-based real-time self-optimisation of the entire automated minibus in MaaS ecosystem in all facets, the risk of technical failures and downtimes can be significantly reduced, which increases the cost-efficiency at the same time. This increases the attractiveness for EU towards a faster market penetration of the automated minibus in MaaS/ITS concept.

### 19.5.4.3 Transition Measures

When focusing the most challenging transitions towards the Scenario 3: AVs in MaaS and the vision: AVs in ITS, numerous operational measures can be derived from the previously defined transformation recommendations with specific regard to the individual situation of the application field.

As a suggested subset of the any size portfolio of transformation measures, some typical and exemplary implementation measures have been selected, also regarding the fact that there is an n to m relationship between transition recommendations and transition measures:

* Technological implementation of vehicles and infrastructure

* By using AI, the insights derived from the journeys can help to optimise the infrastructure. Furthermore, AI can be employed to monitor vehicle utilisation
and subsequently contribute to the timing of the means of transport, which in turn can result in fewer empty journeys. To guarantee optimal communication between the actors in the transport system, it is vital to expand the data network of the infrastructure, vehicles and other actors, with 4G and 5G. This data network is equally required to enable comprehensive function, communication and interaction of the sensors in the vehicles and the infrastructure with the AVs.

* *Software and hardware implementation*

* By integrating AI in the MaaS system, vehicle and user data can be analysed and evaluated. This allows for the recognition of mobility patterns and, as a result, the optimisation of vehicle utilisation and trip adaptation. It can even be used to modify and optimise the infrastructure to the users' mobility needs. This translates to a reduction in journeys without passengers. With the assistance of AI in the MaaS system, route information, such as accidents, disruptions and route closures, can be communicated to the MaaS platform in real time and processed.

* *Regulatory and legal conditions*

* To implement the project successfully and set uniform targets, contractual coordination between all public and private mobility providers and the municipalities is needed. In addition, the adopted laws must be extendable to be applied to new technologies and developments.

* *Client-oriented needs*

* Using AI, the various transport options can be coordinated with each other, leading to schedule optimisation and thus to a reduction in waiting times, enabling seamless transport for the user. On top of that, the additional development of individual mobility in the form of AV on-demand buses promotes the decrease of private vehicle ownership.

### 19.5.5 Design of an Implementation Plan and a Transition Roadmap (Step 6)

The complete portfolio of transition measures is regarded as the basis for a comprehensive categorisation/structuring, pragmatic characterisation and prioritisation/scheduling in the subsequent step, regarding manifold interdependencies among the defined measures.

* The results of these activities can be displayed within an 'implementation plan' for scenario 3.

* An implementation plan could be structured into implementation categories like business, technical social, environmental and governmental measures. Each measure could be defined by criteria like category (human resources, process, know-how, partners, technology, etc.), measure description, criticality, time frame, cost/budget, responsibility, status, etc.
### 19.5.6 Compilation of a Comprehensive Transition Plan (Step 7)

The final transition planning step of the transition concept (represented in Fig. 19.2) for achieving the future vision (AVs in ITS) is titled as ‘transition plan’. It is described as the compilation (comprehensive, systemically structured ‘folder’ of transition steps and planning results) of all results of the previous transition steps 2–6 for each scenario (mid- or long-term relevance) for the transition from the status quo (step 1) to achieve the future Vision 2030 (step 8).

In analogy to a business or innovation plan, the ‘transition plan’ is characterised as an orientation guide and thus strategic and operational basis for all stakeholders of the mobility transition. From a scenario-based logic, it also can be divided into partial transition plans of scenario 1 as well as of scenario 2, which are both oriented in a long-term perspective to the future vision of AV in ITS. Each of these scenarios is aiming in a mid-term perspective to prepare and achieve scenario 3, a preliminary evolution stage to achieve AV in ITS as the future vision. Depending on the individual organisation of the urban mobility ecosystem transition as a strategic project, the transition plan can be managed by a dedicated overall or scenario transition-specific transition manager who is responsible for the general design and controlling of the transition plan, the iterative-incremental design and change updates, as well as adequate implementation and adherence of all transition activities to this plan.

## 19.6 Conclusion

The goal of this chapter was to develop an equal and balanced strategic and operational transition concept from the current status quo towards a successfully deployed sustainable urban mobility ecosystem (future vision). Together with all experts mentioned in the introduction, a generic eight-step transition approach following the described criteria was developed: description of the status quo for each identified scenario (step 1); description of a future vision (step 8); description of six transition steps from the status quo to the future vision; identification of success factors and obstacles (step 2); identification and characterisation of stakeholders (step 3); definition of transition goals, strategies and business models (step 4); transition recommendations and measures (step 5); design of an implementation plan and a transition roadmap (step 6); and compilation of a comprehensive transition plan (step 7). In particular, a roadmap with a timeline categorisation of recommendations for the stakeholders was designed to propose how to realise the desired future developed by the team (Vision 2030, Chap. 18). The five dimensions (technical, social, economic, environmental and governance) were used to better understand and underline the interrelationship of the proposed holistic approach.

In terms of methodology, a limitation of the described approach is however that the concrete status quos of the pilot sites were not taken into account in an adequate way. Just the status quos of vehicles (Chaps. 3 and 11) and governance (Chap. 16) were considered. In fact, the status quo as a starting point is different for each pilot site. There are further several transition plans possible to achieve the same vision.
Even the goals derived from this vision must be adapted individually to the specific situation of each pilot site. These weaknesses will be addressed within the subsequent project ULTIMO (2022–2026).

**Acknowledgements** This project has received funding by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 769033.

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**Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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<figure><img src="image_224.png" /></figure>

Guy Fournier and Dimitri Konstantas

**Abstract** The AVENUE project, carried out under Horizon 2020, demonstrated remarkable progress in automated public transport by deploying almost SAE Level 4 AVs in six European cities. Despite significant challenges, including COVID-19 restrictions and partner insolvency, the project successfully deployed automated minibuses that carried over 160,000 passengers and travelled a total of 168,000 km. This conclusion highlights AVENUE's achievements in improving urban mobility through on-demand door-to-door services and emphasises the potential of using automated minibuses as game changer towards a more sustainable, efficient and citizen centric mobility which serves the general interest.

AVENUE was one of the biggest European projects with automated vehicles on the road. Despite facing significant challenges, such as the COVID-19 restrictions and the bankruptcy of a key partner, AVENUE made remarkable achievements, including the successful deployment of AVs with “nearly SAE level 4” automation in regular commercial public transportation. These AVs provide on-demand and door-to-door services across four European demonstrator and two replicator cities. Throughout the project, these services amassed 80,000 kilometres travelled and 60,000 passengers and utilised 10 automated minibuses in 4 European demonstrator cities (Geneva (Meyrin, Belle-Idée; Switzerland), Lyon (ParcOL; France), Copenhagen (Nordhavn, Slagelse; Denmark) and Luxembourg (Pfaffenthal, Contern; Luxembourg)) and 2 replicator cities (Uvrier in Switzerland and Esch-sur-Alzette in Luxembourg). Additionally, running projects were incorporated into AVENUE, contributing an additional 82,000 km travelled, 100,000 passengers served and the use of 6 AMs. The term “nearly level 4” AVs indicates that, for technical and legal reasons, a safety operator was required to be present in the AV for supervision and incident handling. Vehicle services that substantially enhance the

<footnote>G. Fournier (✉)
Pforzheim University, Pforzheim, Germany</footnote>

<footnote>CentraleSupélec, LGI, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
e-mail: guy.fournier@hs-pforzheim.de</footnote>

<footnote>D. Konstantas
Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland</footnote>
passenger experience as well as the overall quality and value of the service were introduced, also targeting elderly people, people with disabilities and potentially vulnerable users. Road behaviour, security of the AVs and passengers' safety were crucial points of the AVENUE project.

In the first part of the book, the implementation on the sites and advancements of the vehicle have been documented. Safety and security issues are analysed but also how they can be addressed with, for example, in-vehicles services. Specific requirements for persons with reduced mobility (PRM) are further examined. A comprehensive analysis of stakeholders is finally provided to understand how a collaboration of the AV ecosystem can best provide value and benefits for all the stakeholders and the society.

In Part II, a holistic approach is used to analyse the technical, social, economic, environmental and governance impact assessment of the implementation of AV vehicles. The approach of this in-depth research demonstrates that all the dimensions are interrelated, for example, to show how AVs can enable positive externalities or reduce negative externalities. Technical issues have further business impacts, and governance influences business viability and success for all stakeholders, etc. A comprehensive representative survey depicts a noteworthy goodwill for the innovative services provided with automated minibuses. The aim of the interdisciplinary approach was to enable and objectivise a balance between individual private and general interests as well as between the ecosystem stakeholders in general. The purpose is to maximise the benefits for the society to the best for all the stakeholders (common interest).

As a result, a proposal on how to integrate automated vehicles into a city has been developed in Chap. 18:

* Automated minibus integrated in a MaaS could be a real game changer and enable a sustainable mobility and fair share of the created values between the stakeholders. In this described future, AVs are complementing and fostering other means of transport, in particular mass transport. Rural, remote or suburban areas, for example, could have access to existing mass transport infrastructure and MaaS services and consequently be better deserved. Tangential connection between two suburban areas could be possible. The system can save energy and materials but also space. It provides further temporal flexibility and spatial flexibility nearly similar to private cars and does not compete with public transport. A sustainable and citizen centric mobility is thus possible without a coercive (technology push) transport policy, just in increasing the choice and improving the provided mobility services (demand and attractivity pull). Even privately owned or privately shared cars are part of the model (see Figure 18.2) and justified, for example, in areas with poor infrastructure or where time is a critical issue.

* Integrating AV in an intelligent transport system could further make it possible to use mobility data and artificial intelligence to improve the transport system with fast and slow closed loops. Thus, the recommended approach goes beyond the current product AV innovation and suggests using the automated minibus as a trigger for disruptive innovation of the transport system as a whole. The transport system would become thus ambidextrous in being able to combine antinomic economic goals: efficiency and flexibility. The transport system would also turn more resilient, as in case of failure (incident or accident), an automated minibus could bridge mobility gaps.
A transition planning towards this desirable future has finally been developed in Chap. 19. This is necessary to make live the strategy and deploy it successfully. Recommendations have been formulated within this framework. This transition is necessary as the European AV in MaaS mobility market is currently fragmented and stakeholders in particular OEMs of automated minibuses and the related digital service provider are struggling with the viability of their AV business models (see recommendation R_2024-26.5 in Chap. 19). To create a federated (democratised) and sustainable transport systems which serves the general interest, TPOs and TPAs should shape the market in defining the technical specifications of the vehicles to be integrated in a MaaS and ITS. This makes sense as TPOs and TPAs are already driven by society (“purpose economy”) and EU/national regulations to serve the general interest. A disclosure of their procurement goals and strategies would further be necessary to give a long-term perspective to the AV ecosystem and ease their own financing of innovative AV in MaaS/ITS technologies. The emergence of strong OEMs/AV technology provider and their related AV-ecosystems would thus be enabled and supported. This could be a promising alternative to possible strategies in other parts of the world where states or private companies (GAFAM or BATX) or both share the risks with the hidden ulterior motive to capture value for private interest (closed ecosystems focusing on “the winner takes it all”) or even for questionable states goals, for example, regarding data privacy.

The AVENUE vision will be implemented and tested in parts within the Horizon Europe ULTIMO project: 15 multivendor vehicles will be implemented each in Oslo (Norway), Herford (Germany) and Geneva (Switzerland) until 2026. The integration of logistics will be tested as well in Geneva. The ULTIMO project will also have to make an update on the proposed vision of Chap. 18. Indeed, in the long run, with the loosing of the boundaries between traditional motorised private and public transport dominance like mentioned in the foreword of FEDRO, the suggested proposal will have to be evaluated again.

**Acknowledgements** This project has received funding by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 769033.

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