# Computerization, labor productivity and employment: impacts across industries vary with technological level

Charles-Marie Chevalier, Antoine Luciani

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Charles-Marie Chevalier, Antoine Luciani. Computerization, labor productivity and employment: impacts across industries vary with technological level. 2018. hal-05411777

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Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G2018/02

Computerization, labor productivity
and employment: impacts across industries vary
with technological level

Charles-Marie CHEVALIER et Antoine LUCIANI

Document de travail

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Insee
Mesurer pour comprendre

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

Série des documents de travail
de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques

G2018/02

Computerization, labor productivity
and employment: impacts across industries vary
with technological level

Charles-Marie CHEVALIER* et Antoine LUCIANI**

MAI 2018

For their useful comments, we would like to thank Romain DUVAL, Dominique GOUX, Claire LELARGE, Matthieu LEQUIEN, Giorgio PRESIDENTE, Corinne PROST, Sébastien ROUX, Olivier SIMON as well as various participants at the Insee Economics Department seminar, the 2017 Banque de France Productivity workshop, and the 2017 AFSE conference.

<footnote>* Insee-Dese - Département des études économiques » - Division « études macroéconomiques »
Crest</footnote>

<footnote>** Insee</footnote>
# Informatisation, productivité du travail et emploi :
des effets différenciés entre industries
selon le niveau technologique

## Résumé

Le progrès technique, notamment au travers de l'informatisation, pose des enjeux pour le devenir de certains emplois. En parallèle, les gains de productivité se sont essoufflés dans de nombreux pays développés et l'usage de l'informatique ne semble pas se traduire nécessairement dans les statistiques de productivité, en particulier dans les industries manufacturières non productrices de capital informatique aux États-Unis (Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, et Price, 2014). Afin d'étudier si les diminutions d'effectifs et les faibles gains de productivité du travail associés à l'informatisation surviennent séparément dans différents secteurs, cette étude adopte une approche méso-économique pour la France entre 1994 et 2007. Le travail pouvant être soit substituable soit complémentaire au capital informatique, selon que les tâches correspondantes sont routinières ou non, une attention privilégiée est portée au niveau technologique et au degré de qualification des emplois. Les principaux résultats sont les suivants. Contrairement aux États-Unis, les secteurs producteurs de capital informatique ne montrent pas de gains de productivité liés à l'informatisation. Cependant, pour les secteurs non producteurs, elle est associée à des effets positifs mais fragiles sur la productivité du travail, et à des baisses d'effectifs sans équivoque. Celles-ci se concentrent dans les industries de faible technologie, principalement parmi les travailleurs peu qualifiés, avec *in fine* des gains de productivité particulièrement nets. Dans les industries de moyenne-haute technologie, de tels effets ne sont pas identifiés. L'informatisation n'y est pas associée à des baisses d'effectifs quelle que soit la catégorie d'emploi, mais est reliée à une part de l'emploi qualifié plus élevée. Au final, l'informatisation pourrait accompagner des changements sectoriels structurels, avec une amélioration de la productivité pour les secteurs en déclin et un enrichissement en travail pour ceux en essor.

**Mots-clés** : productivité du travail, informatisation, substitution/complémentarité capital-travail

# Computerization, labor productivity and employment:
impacts across industries vary with technological level

## Abstract

Technical progress notably through computerization raises concerns about the future of labor. In parallel, productivity became sluggish in many developed countries and computers are everywhere but not in *all* productivity statistics, especially not among non IT producing manufacturing industries in the United States (Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price, 2014). To observe whether job losses and missing labor productivity gains from computerization are localized in the same part of the manufacturing sector, this paper delves into targeted disaggregated focuses in France between 1994 and 2007. As computers can be used as complements or substitutes for labor depending on the (non-) routine nature of tasks, we concentrate on low-tech vs. mid/high tech industries and on high-skilled vs. low-skilled workers. Our main results are the following. Contrary to the United States, labor productivity is not driven to a large extent by IT-producing industries. Yet, for the whole IT-using manufacturing sector, computerization is associated with positive but fragile effects on labor productivity, and to unambiguous declines in employment. Actually, a labor saving effect of computerization is massively concentrated among industries relying on low production technology. For mid/high-tech IT-using industries, evidence is less straightforward on labor productivity. Among them, computerization is not associated to job cuts whatever the job type, and is related to a rise in the share of high-skilled workers. In the end, computerization could go in hand in hand with economy wide structural changes, with strong productivity improvements in declining sectors and labor deepening in rising ones.

**Keywords** : labor productivity, computerization, capital-labor substitution and complementarity

**Classification JEL** : J2, L60, O3
# Introduction

Technical progress notably through computerization raised concerns about the future of labor. Many jobs could be exposed to substitution by machines in the following decades: in particular, the *Conseil d'Orientation pour l'Emploi* finds that 10 percent of existing jobs in France are threatened (COE, 2017). In parallel, productivity became sluggish in many developed countries, and computers are everywhere but not in all productivity statistics, to rephrase Robert Solow<fnref n="1" />. Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price (2014) recently revived the "Solow paradox" by illustrating for the United States and after the 1990s that labor productivity gains are still missing for computer-intensive manufacturing industries when information technology (IT) producers are ruled out.<fnref n="2" /> All these facts seem paradoxical: why would jobs be substituted by machines if not for productivity improvements?

Against this background, this paper sheds light on this puzzling aggregate view by delving into targeted disaggregated focuses at the industry level and for different groups of occupations. The aim is to observe whether job losses and missing labor productivity gains from computerization are localized in the same part of the manufacturing sector. Indeed, simple theoretical mechanisms suggest that both facts could be outcomes in separate industries. Labor can be either substitutable or complementary to computers depending on the routine or non routine content of the corresponding tasks, as evidenced by Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003).<fnref n="3" /> Typical examples are automation in textiles or R&D in chemicals.<fnref n="4" /> Computerization could thus lead to either a fall or a rise of labor demand in production. In the end, the effect of computerization on employment and labor productivity might depend on the industry mix between these alternative uses of computers.

In this paper, we concentrate on effects among manufacturing industries and investigate two major and related dimensions of disaggregation: technological levels and occupations, which both participate in the (non-)routine nature of labor. We show that distinguishing

<footnote n="1">¹At the end of the 1980s, Robert Solow noticed that "computers [were] everywhere but in the productivity statistics" (1987, New York Times Book Review). Since then, many studies showed a positive effect of information technology on labor or total productivity, with widely varying size and interpretations (Cardona, Kretschmer, and Strobel, 2013).</footnote>

<footnote n="2">²Similarly Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2011) argued that "total factor productivity in non-IT producing industries has not been improving along with increased IT services use."</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³Autor et al. (2003) found that computerization can be associated with reduced labor input of routine manual and routine cognitive tasks and increased labor input of non-routine cognitive tasks.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Albeit clearly associated to the automation phenomena in particular, our ICT variable does not grasp it thoroughly, such as information more targeted on robots in Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) for instance.</footnote>
between low-tech and mid/high tech industries and between high-skilled and low-skilled
workers provides a sufficient level of heterogeneity to sharply characterize distinct outcomes
for productivity and employment where computerization is more intensive.

This work relies on series built for 228 manufacturing industries in France between 1994
and 2007, using administrative data from the "Bénéfices Réels Normaux" (BRN), for produc-
tion, total firm level employment and computer investment, and the "Déclarations annuelles
de données sociales" (DADS) for employment by skill groups. Following Acemoglu et al.
(2014), we use panel regressions at the sector level to explain productivity (ratio between
sales and total employees) and employment with year-specific elasticities for computer inten-
sity (defined as the share of computer investment). This allows to gain insight into long-term
trends in a context of progressive computerization, and to compare our results with equiv-
alent ones for the United States using data from Acemoglu et al. (2014). Starting from
the whole manufacturing sector, this econometric approach is then applied separately for
IT-using industries, and within this category for low- and mid/high tech ones. Results are
then refined using employment for high-skilled and low-skilled workers, and compared to
outcomes obtained for the services sector.

Our main results are the following. Contrary to the United States, labor productivity
in France has not been driven to a large extent by IT-producing industries, revealing the
potential underdevelopment of the "French tech". Yet, for the whole IT-using manufacturing
sector, computerization is associated with positive but fragile effects on labor productivity,
and to unambiguous declines in employment. Actually, a labor saving effect of computeriza-
tion is massively concentrated among industries relying on low production technology. For
mid/high-tech IT-using industries, evidence is less straightforward on labor productivity.
Among them, computerization is related to more employment for all job types relative to
low-tech industries, and notably to a rise in the share of high-skilled workers. In comparison,
computerization in services favors employment and sales significantly, with no distinguish-
able impact on labor productivity yet. In the end, computerization seems to foster economy
wide structural changes, with strong labor productivity improvements in declining sectors
and labor enrichment in rising ones.

This paper is related to the link between computerization, employment and firm labor
demand in terms of skills and tasks, following the seminal work by Autor et al. (2003).
Computer investment can drive diverging employment dynamics with respect to economic sectors: Biscourp, Crépon, Heckel, and Riedinger (2002) found a strong effect of the decline in computer prices on the relative demand for unskilled and skilled workers, with varying sensitivities in services and manufacturing.<fnref n="5" /> In addition, Pak and Poissonnier (2016) show that technology has a negative contribution on changes in employment concentrated on low-skilled workers, while the contribution is positive for high-skilled.<fnref n="6" /> Using the same data as ours, Harrigan, Reshef, and Toubal (2016) show that firms with more technology<fnref n="7" /> saw greater polarization, which suggests similar outcomes at the industry level. Further emphasizing the substitution between IT capital and labor in a general equilibrium framework, Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) obtain negative effects of robots on employment and wages across U.S. commuting zones. This impact is yet distinct from those they obtain with other types of IT capital, which is consistent with our results using data on computers and displaying more complementarity with labor. Finally, Spieza, Polder, and Presidente (2016) estimate on OECD countries that the decrease in IT user cost has short-term effects on labor demands whatever the skill level, but is neutral in the long-run.

This study is also related to works on R&D, innovation, productivity and employment.
Hall, Lotti, and Mairesse (2012) notably test the potential complementarity between IT and
R&D on a panel of Italian manufacturing firms. They find that IT and R&D separately
affect strongly productivity but are not complements. Our results at the industry level and
using R&D intensity categories are consistent with an absence of complementarity but also
suggest a negative interaction, as they depict IT-driven productivity effects among low-tech
industries but not mid/high-tech ones. Behind these empirical findings, there could be two
different underlying uses of computers when R&D is low or high as mentioned by Hall et al.
(2012). First, "[IT] enables "organizational" investment, mainly business processes and new
work practices which, in turn, lead to cost reductions and improved output and, hence,
productivity gains". Second, "[in] a less traditional view, [IT] is an input for producing new

<footnote n="5">⁵More precisely, at the general level, a 15 percent fall in computer prices leads to a decline of marginal costs for firms by 0.7 percent and a rise of the ratio between skilled and unskilled workers in employment by 3.5 percent; and demand for skilled relative to unskilled workers seems stronger in manufacturing than in services, especially for firms within the first size quintile (cf. Biscourp et al., 2002, Figure 8, p.18).</footnote>

<footnote n="6">⁶Pak and Poissonnier (2016) decompose employment variations with respect to different qualification levels over 30 years and with an accounting input-output approach.</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷The propensity of a firm to adopt new technologies is proxied by its employment of "techies", i.e. technically qualified managers and technicians.</footnote>
goods and services (like internet banking), new ways of doing business [...] and new ways
of producing goods and services (integrated management)<fnref n="8" />. Here, we associate both views
of IT uses to IT-labor substitution and complementarity respectively. More theoretically,
Acemoglu and Restrepo (2016) highlight that R&D can be oriented to the automation of
current tasks or the creation of new ones, and that some balance between the former and
the latter can be reached endogenously such that in equilibrium “the endogenous response
of [R&D] restores the labor share and employment back to their initial level”. Our results
could be interpreted as signs of the presence of these alternative compensating mechanisms
at stake with technological change, and also suggest further analyzing labor shares among
different industry groups within manufacturing.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 1 develops preliminary simple theo-
retical insights on the potential substitution and complementarity effects of computerization
on employment and labor productivity. Section 2 describes our data sources, their treatments
and the definition of the industry and skill groups at the core of our empirical analysis. Sec-
tion 3 presents the economic approach and its application to different broad manufacturing
industry groups. Finally, Section 4 extends these estimates on major employment categories
and in services.

# 1 Preliminary theoretical insights

Should computerization enhance labor productivity? Besides improving total factor pro-
ductivity gains, computers may also favor labor deepening of production. In order to figure
out this potential effect, a simple model is derived where computers can be either substitutes
or complements for labor. It follows the models by Autor et al. (2003) and Harrigan et al.
(2016), which enclose computer price evolutions and the skill composition of firms labor
demand, and adds decreasing returns to scale. A fall in computer prices can then induce dif-
fering dynamics for employment and labor productivity.<fnref n="9" /> The model by Autor et al. (2003)
rationalized their finding that computerization can be associated with reduced labor input of
routine manual and routine cognitive tasks and increased labor input of non-routine cognitive

<footnote n="8">⁸In France, higher R&D spendings are indeed associated with more product innovation notably (Lelarge, 2006).</footnote>

<footnote n="9">⁹In particular, this model abstracts from margin adjustments by firms to gain market shares and from total factor productivity improvements (TFPA below is constant), which may also be influenced by ICT use.</footnote>
tasks. By routine tasks, Autor et al. (2003) mean for instance record-keeping, calculation, repetitive customer service, or picking, sorting, repetitive assembly, for which substitution with computers can be expected (see Table 1 in Autor et al., 2003). Examples of non routine tasks are forming/testing hypotheses, medical diagnosis, legal writing, persuading/selling, managing others, for which strong complementaries with computers are more likely.

A firm is represented by a production function using routine and non-routine tasks $T_r$ and $T_n$ with decreasing returns to scale ($\alpha < 1$ and $0 < \beta < \alpha$):

$$Q = A \left( \frac{T_r}{\alpha - \beta} \right)^{\alpha - \beta} \left( \frac{T_n}{\beta} \right)^{\beta},$$

where production $Q$ implies an intensity of non-routine tasks $\beta$, and $A$ is a scale parameter.<fnref n="10" /> The tasks $T_r$ (resp. $T_n$) are achieved with both labor $H_r$ (resp. $H_n$) and computers $C_r$ (resp. $C_n$) following:

$$T_r = \left[ \theta_r^{\frac{1}{\sigma_r}} C_r^{\frac{\sigma_r-1}{\sigma_r}} + (1-\theta_r)^{\frac{1}{\sigma_r}} H_r^{\frac{\sigma_r-1}{\sigma_r}} \right]^{\frac{\sigma_r}{\sigma_r-1}} \quad \text{and} \quad T_n = \left[ \theta_n^{\frac{1}{\sigma_n}} C_n^{\frac{\sigma_n-1}{\sigma_n}} + (1-\theta_n)^{\frac{1}{\sigma_n}} H_n^{\frac{\sigma_n-1}{\sigma_n}} \right]^{\frac{\sigma_n}{\sigma_n-1}},$$

where $\theta_r$ and $\theta_n$ are parameters indicating the computer intensity of each type of task, with $0 < \theta_r, \theta_n < 1$. We distinguish here two possible types of computer uses which might differ for routine and non routine tasks. Non-routine labor is assumed to be complementary to computers, with $0 < \sigma_n < 1$, while routine labor is substitutable with them, with $\sigma_r > 1$.

The demands for routine and non-routine tasks are derived from the equality between marginal benefits and costs:

$$P_r T_r = (\alpha - \beta) Q \quad \text{and} \quad P_n T_n = \beta Q, \qquad (1)$$

where $P_r$ and $P_n$ are the composite prices for each type of task. These composite prices depend on the price of computers $p$ and on the associated type of labor, $w_r$ or $w_n$. The quantities of tasks $T_r$ (resp. $T_n$) are made up by optimal quantities of computers $C_r$ (resp. $C_n$) and labor $H_r$ (resp. $H_n$), at prices $P_r$ (resp. $P_n$), $p$ et $w_r$ (resp. $w_n$) so that the composite price is given by:

$$P_r = [\theta_r p^{1-\sigma_r} + (1-\theta_r) w_r^{1-\sigma_r}]^{\frac{1}{1-\sigma_r}} \quad \text{and} \quad P_n = [\theta_n p^{1-\sigma_n} + (1-\theta_n) w_n^{1-\sigma_n}]^{\frac{1}{1-\sigma_n}}. \qquad (2)$$

<footnote n="10">¹⁰Production $Q$ is in nominal terms. The firm considers exogenous sales prices. This corresponds to the absence of margin adjustment as mentioned in footnote 9.</footnote>
For a specific level of tasks, the corresponding labor demand depends on the relative cost of labor in the composite price and the labor intensity of these tasks, according to:

$$ \left(\frac{w_r}{P_r}\right)^{\sigma_r} H_r = (1 - \theta_r)T_r \quad \text{and} \quad \left(\frac{w_n}{P_n}\right)^{\sigma_n} H_n = (1 - \theta_n)T_n. \qquad (3) $$

Associating equations (1) and (3), we have:

$$ H_r = (1 - \theta_r)(\alpha - \beta)Q \frac{P_r^{\sigma_r - 1}}{w_r^{\sigma_r}} \quad \text{and} \quad H_n = (1 - \theta_n)\beta Q \frac{P_n^{\sigma_n - 1}}{w_n^{\sigma_n}}. \qquad (4) $$

Finally, labor productivity $\Gamma = Q/(H_r + H_n)$ has the following form:

$$ \Gamma = \left[ (1 - \theta_r)(\alpha - \beta) \frac{P_r^{\sigma_r - 1}}{w_r^{\sigma_r}} + (1 - \theta_n)\beta \frac{P_n^{\sigma_n - 1}}{w_n^{\sigma_n}} \right]^{-1}. \qquad (5) $$

Within this framework, consider two simplified industry cases, s and c, where only one type of tasks is used, that is with $\beta = 0$ or $\beta = \alpha$. Then, labor productivity in each of them follows:

$$ \Gamma_s = \frac{w_r}{\alpha} \left[ \frac{\theta_r}{1 - \theta_r} \left( \frac{p}{w_r} \right)^{1 - \sigma_r} + 1 \right] \quad \text{and} \quad \Gamma_c = \frac{w_n}{\alpha} \left[ \frac{\theta_n}{1 - \theta_n} \left( \frac{p}{w_n} \right)^{1 - \sigma_n} + 1 \right]. \qquad (6) $$

Assume then that the price p of computers falls, all else being equal in terms of wages $w_r$ or $w_n$. The effects on labor productivity are such as:

$$ \frac{\partial \Gamma_s}{\partial p} \propto \frac{\theta_r}{1 - \theta_r} \underbrace{(1 - \sigma_r)}_{< 0} \quad \text{and} \quad \frac{\partial \Gamma_c}{\partial p} \propto \frac{\theta_n}{1 - \theta_n} \underbrace{(1 - \sigma_n)}_{> 0} \qquad (7) $$

In industry s, routine labor and computers are substitutes so that $1 - \sigma_r < 0$ and labor productivity increases. In industry c, non-routine labor and computers are complements, so that $1 - \sigma_n > 0$ and labor productivity decreases.

These effects on labor productivity are the result of the combination of two standard mechanisms. First, there is a substitution effect within tasks $T_r$ or $T_n$ since, for a given production level, computer and labor uses depend on relative factor prices. All things being equal, in both industries s and c the substitution effect induces a fall in labor, whose magnitude depends on the constant elasticity of substitution: weak for low levels of the elasticity (i.e. for complementary such as with $\sigma_n < 1$), strong for high levels of the elasticity (i.e. for substitutability such as with $\sigma_r > 1$). The fall in labor mechanically implies a rise in the labor productivity.<fnref n="11" />

<footnote n="11">¹¹This effect is embedded in the coefficients "$-\sigma_r$" and "$-\sigma_n$" in Equations (7), through which a fall in p implies a rise in both $\Gamma_s$ and $\Gamma_c$.</footnote>
Second, a drop in computer prices $p$ implies a fall in total production costs ($P_r$ or $P_n$) and then a revenue effect in the profit maximization of the firms. In both industries $s$ and $c$, it induces a rise in quantities of tasks $T_r$ or $T_n$, that is in both quantities of computers and labor. Due to decreasing returns to scale, the output does not increase as much and, more precisely, the revenue effect implies a decrease in the labor productivity.<fnref n="12" />

In industry $s$ ($\sigma_r > 1$), the substitution effect is higher than the revenue effect whereas the revenue effect is higher in industry $c$ ($\sigma_n > 1$).<fnref n="13" /> Moreover, as $\theta/(1-\theta)$ is increasing in $\theta$, the effects on labor productivity in Equations (7) are even stronger in both industry cases when the computer intensity of production is higher. Note that in this simple model, the two types of labor $r$ and $n$ only differ according to their degree of substitutability with computers. In particular, there is no specific labor efficiency which could influence the aggregate labor productivity.

In the general case in Equation (5), the productivity $\Gamma$ can be then rewritten in terms of the previous labor productivities $\Gamma_s$ and $\Gamma_c$: $\Gamma = [(1-\beta)/\Gamma_s + \beta/\Gamma_c]^{-1}$, so that the total productivity effect of a drop in the computer price is undetermined and depends upon the tasks intensities (through $\beta$) on top of $\theta_n$, $\theta_r$, $\sigma_n$ and $\sigma_r$.<fnref n="14" />

In the end and at least, as manufacturing industries largely differ in their demands of routine and non-routine tasks, the impact of their computer intensity on their employment and labor productivity, as suggested by Equations (4) and (5), is ambiguous. In the next section, data are designed to reflect the main features presented here.

## 2 Data sources and treatments

Data are taken from the "Bénéfices Réels Normaux" (BRN) and the "Déclarations an-nuelles de données sociales" (DADS), two French administrative databases, between 1994 and 2007, and are merged at the firm level. This time window is chosen for two reasons: first, af-ter 2007, the computer expenditures variable in BRN data has been gathered with unrelated

<footnote n="12">¹²This effect is embedded in the number "1" in Equations (7), through which a fall in $p$ results in a fall in both $\Gamma_s$ and $\Gamma_c$. Note that, from Equation (1), in case $s$, $Q/T_r = P_r/\alpha$, and in case $c$, $Q/T_n = P_n/\alpha$.</footnote>

<footnote n="13">¹³To shed more light on these polar productivity outcomes, two alternative models including a single task production technology are developed in the Appendix.</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴Note that $\partial\Gamma/\partial\beta = \Gamma^2/(\Gamma_c\Gamma_s)(\Gamma_c - \Gamma_s)$. So if partial productivity is higher for non routine tasks than routine ones ($\Gamma_c > \Gamma_s$), then an increase of non routine tasks intensity in production $\beta$ is total productivity enhancing.</footnote>
items; second, major revisions of used industry codes occurred in 1993 and 2008.<fnref n="15" /> Manufacturing firms are gathered into 228 industries at the 4-digit level based on the Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community (NACE). NACE codes were slightly revised in 2002 with a separation of several industries into new subcategories. NACE codes are harmonized over the sample to rely only on the 1990-2001 NACE Rev.1 version.<fnref n="16" /> For descriptive statistics, aggregates are also computed at the higher 2-digit NACE level (NACE divisions) in order to deal with a tractable number of entities (23 in manufacturing ranging from "15" for "food products and beverages" to "37" for "recycling"). IT-producing industries are made up by the three following 2-digit divisions in line with the definition by Acemoglu et al. (2014): "office machinery and computers"; "radio, television and communication equipment"; and "medical, optical and watch instruments". Codes changed for some firms in IT-producing industries as their activity became mostly made up by services rather than hardware merchandises. To avoid mixing these firms with others in services, we use the earlier codes. Finally, to allow for comparisons with the United States for productivity and total employment, we also rely on the NBER-CES Manufacturing database used by Acemoglu et al. (2014) which includes 387 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit SIC codes level.

To measure computer use, we rely on “office and computing machinery” investment as reported in the BRN. Crépon and Heckel (2000) and Barbesol, Heckel, and Quantin (2008) used this variable for France, and Autor, Katz, and Krueger (1998) relied on a similar one for the United States. We define computer intensity as the ratio between computer investment and total investment as in Acemoglu et al. (2014), but also Berman, Bound, and Griliches (1994) and Autor et al. (1998). Our labor productivity measure is the ratio between sales and total employees. Sales are preferred to value added as productivity is then unaffected by the choice of deflators for intermediate inputs and IT in particular. Note that all variables are in nominal terms. Yet, results are very similar to Acemoglu et al. (2014) which also use nominal outcome variables as alternative regressions.

<footnote n="15">¹⁵This period also allows direct comparison with Harrigan et al. (2016) which study the impacts of computerization on polarization with the same data between 1994 and 2007 but at the firm level.</footnote>

<footnote n="16">¹⁶NACE Rev.1.1 contains very few additional items. In manufacturing, one of the main changes is a breakdown of NACE 2940 (manufacture of machine tools) into three classes, portable hand held, metalworking and others. In services, an example is the breakdown into two new wholesale classes NACE 5164 (wholesale of office machinery and equipment) and NACE 5165 (wholesale of machinery for use in industry, trade and navigation).</footnote>
<table><caption>Table 1 – Classification of manufacturing industries into categories based on R&D intensities</caption><thead><tr><th>SIC</th><th>name</th><th>NACE</th><th>name</th><th>grp</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>20</td><td>Food and kindred products</td><td>15</td><td>Food products and beverage</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Tobacco products</td><td>16</td><td>Tobacco products</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Textile mill products</td><td>17</td><td>Textiles</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Apparel and other textile prod.</td><td>18</td><td>Wearing apparel</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Lumber and wood products</td><td>20</td><td>Wood and wood products</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Furniture and fixtures</td><td>36</td><td>Furnitures</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Paper and allied products</td><td>21</td><td>Pulp, paper and paper products</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Printing and publishing</td><td>22</td><td>Publishing, printing</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Chemicals and allied products</td><td>24</td><td>Chemicals and chemical products</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Petroleum and coal products</td><td>23</td><td>Coke, refined petroleum products</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Rubber and misc. plastics prod.</td><td>25</td><td>Rubber and plastic products</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Leather and leather products</td><td>19</td><td>Leather and leather products</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Stone, clay, and glass products</td><td>26</td><td>Non-metallic mineral products</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Primary metal industries</td><td>27</td><td>Basic metals</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Fabricated metal products</td><td>28</td><td>Fabricated metal products</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Industrial machinery and equip.</td><td>29</td><td>Machinery and equipment</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>30</td><td>Office machinery and computers</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>Electronic and oth. electric equip.</td><td>31</td><td>Electrical machinery and app.</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>32</td><td>Radio, TV and com. equip.</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Transportation equipment</td><td>34</td><td>Transport equip.</td><td>mid/high</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Instruments and related products</td><td>33</td><td>Medical, precision and optic. inst.</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td>Misc. manufacturing industries</td><td>37</td><td>Miscellaneous (recycling)</td><td>low</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: 1987 SIC Code List from the U.S. Census Bureau, Eurostat, Hatzichronoglou (1997). Note: "Chemicals" (NACE 2-digit code 24) are associated to medium-high technology by the OECD excepting pharmaceuticals (NACE 3-digit code 244) which include high-tech industries. Similarly, "transport equipment" (NACE 34 / NACE 35) is within the medium-high category apart from "aircraft and spacecraft" (NACE 353) made up by high-tech industries. In the category "publishing, printing" "NACE 22", the sub-part "publishing" is set as a high-tech set of industries in our own classification, as under NACE rev.2, "publishing" is in Section J for "information and communication services".

We follow the OECD classification of industries with respect to R&D intensity (cf. Table 1). In this classification, the ranking takes into account both the level of technology specific to the sector (measured by the ratio of R&D expenditure to value added) and the technology embodied in purchases of intermediate and capital goods (Hatzichronoglou, 1997).<fnref n="17" /> Based on the distinction of four groups by the OECD, we divide manufacturing IT-using industries within two categories: low-technology industries<fnref n="18" /> and mid/high-tech ones. Mid/high tech industries include the OECD groups "medium-low", "medium-high" and "high" apart from IT-producing industries<fnref n="19" />. The aim is to broadly distinguish industries with respect to their use of routine vs. non-routine tasks. R&D intensity is expected to be associated with more non-routine labor and computers to be more complementary to labor in this case. The number of industries in our categories is relatively balanced (80 low-

<footnote n="17">¹⁷The classification by Hatzichronoglou (1997) relies on R&D intensity measures using the OECD AN-BERD, STAN, Input-Output and BILAT databases for 1980 and 1990.</footnote>

<footnote n="18">¹⁸The only exception is "publishing" within "wood, pulp, paper products, printing, publishing" which is excluded from manufacturing.</footnote>

<footnote n="19">¹⁹"High" tech industries apart from IT-producing industries correspond to "aircraft and spacecraft" and "pharmaceuticals".</footnote>
tech industries vs. 130 mid/high-tech industries), and focusing on two categories provides parsimony and statistical power.

Services include wholesale, hotels and restaurants, transport and communication, business services and personal services.<fnref n="20" /> In particular, business services are made up by major activities where computers can be expected to be used extensively, with consultancy related to IT, research and development on natural sciences and engineering, management consultancy, real estate, renting of equipments, advertising and legal activities for instance. This set of service industries also allows to abstract from industries where the public sector is present, such as for education or health, where the measure of productivity through sales would be inappropriate.

Total employment is split into two categories gathering high- and low-skilled workers. They are intended to reflect discrepancies in the routine nature of their work, to be sufficiently homogeneous with respect to their potential exposure to computers, and to form a balanced partition (Table 2). High-skilled encompass social and occupational groups (SOG) 2, 3 and 4, that is "craftsmen, shopkeepers and heads of businesses", "higher managerial and intellectual occupations" and "mid-level occupations". In manufacturing, this category amounts to 38.9 percent of total employment (in full time equivalent). Then, the second category, low-skilled workers, is made up by 1-digit SOG codes 5 and 6, or "employees" and "workers", It corresponds to 59.6 percent of total employment in manufacturing.<fnref n="21" />

## 3 Main estimations

From these data, between 1994 and 2007, and omitting IT-producers, 2-digit divisions with the highest labor productivity gains are not necessarily those with the highest computer intensity at first glance (Figure 1). With a similar computer intensity around 4 percent, textiles (17), transports (34) and furnitures (36) had quite different productivity gains at 12, 24 and 15 percent respectively. The wearing apparel division (18) reached productivity gains equivalent to transports (34) at around 23 percent while its computer intensity is twice higher at 9 percent. Employment is not correlated with computer intensity also. For

<footnote n="20">²⁰These sectors correspond to NACE 2-digit codes 50/52, 55, 60/64, 65/67, 70/74 and 90-92/93. Sector related to public services are excluded: public administration and defense (75), education (80), health (85), activities of membership organizations (92).</footnote>

<footnote n="21">²¹We rely on the assumption that the share of routine tasks is on average significantly higher in occupations requiring lower qualifications.</footnote>
<table><caption>Table 2 – Classification of social and occupational groups (SOG) into general categories</caption><thead><tr><th>SOG</th><th>description</th><th>share</th><th>grp</th><th>PCS</th><th>description</th><th>share</th><th>grp</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>21</td><td>Small business owners and w.</td><td>0.0</td><td>high</td><td>47</td><td>Technicians</td><td>10.6</td><td>high</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Shopkeepers</td><td>0.0</td><td>high</td><td>48</td><td>Supervisors and foremen</td><td>4.2</td><td>high</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Heads of businesses</td><td>0.6</td><td>high</td><td>52</td><td>Public service employees</td><td>0.0</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Liberal professions</td><td>0.0</td><td>high</td><td>53</td><td>Security workers</td><td>0.2</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Top public managers</td><td>0.0</td><td>high</td><td>54</td><td>Office workers</td><td>5.9</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Scientific & educational prof.</td><td>0.1</td><td>high</td><td>55</td><td>Retail workers</td><td>1.1</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Creative professionals</td><td>0.8</td><td>high</td><td>56</td><td>Personal service workers</td><td>0.2</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Top managers and prof.</td><td>5.5</td><td>high</td><td>62</td><td>Skilled industrial workers</td><td>30.2</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Technical managers and eng.</td><td>9.9</td><td>high</td><td>63</td><td>Skilled manual laborers</td><td>2.4</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td>Teachers</td><td>0.1</td><td>high</td><td>64</td><td>Drivers</td><td>1.2</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td>Mid-level health professionals</td><td>0.2</td><td>high</td><td>65</td><td>Transport & wholesale work.</td><td>3.2</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>45</td><td>Mid-level office public emp.</td><td>0.0</td><td>high</td><td>67</td><td>Unskilled industrial workers</td><td>14.7</td><td>low</td></tr><tr><td>46</td><td>Mid-level managers and prof.</td><td>7.4</td><td>high</td><td>68</td><td>Unskilled manual laborers</td><td>1.0</td><td>low</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: DADS. Note: Shares are proportions of the SOG into total manufacturing employment in 2007.

instance, employment can drastically fall in textiles (17) but remain stable for chemical (24), although computer intensity is similar at 3 percent. To get a sharper view in what follows, estimations use the 4-digit industry level and distinguish between different technological levels and employment categories as outlined above.

To estimate the relationship between labor productivity or employment and computer intensity, our main specification is similar to Acemoglu et al. (2014) and follows:

$$ \log Y_{jt} = \gamma_j + \delta_t + \sum_{t'=1994}^{2007} \beta_{t'} 1_{t'=t} IT_j + \epsilon_{jt}, \quad (8) $$

where *j* stands for industry, *t* for year, $Y_{jt}$ is the dependent variable (labor productivity, production or employment); $\gamma_j$ and $\delta_t$ are industry and year fixed effects; $IT_j$ is the average computer intensity in industry *j* between 1994 and 2007; the coefficients $\beta_{t'}$ are the elasticities related to IT intensity and $\epsilon_{jt}$ are residuals.<fnref n="22" /> In this specification, labor productivity is assumed to depend on a static measure of computer intensity, with elasticities varying over time to gain insight on long-term trends in a context of progressive IT diffusion. $\beta_{1994}$ is normalized to 0 so that $\beta_{t'}$ for $t' > 1994$ have to be interpreted as differences to the effect in 1994. This approach proved robust to alternative time windows in Acemoglu et al. (2014), and the average computer intensity can be seen as a smoothed measure of long-term industry behavior.

<footnote n="22">²²While the model presented outcomes induced by ICT price shocks, this empirical strategy directly relies on ICT intensity at the industry level, which is assumed to reflect both ICT importance in industries’ production technologies and ICT overall rising affordability across decades. The model does not include capital which makes impossible to exactly associate $IT_j$ to any corresponding ratio. Yet, $IT_j$ should be thought as including computers for routine tasks $H_r$ and non routine ones $H_n$.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1 – IT intensity and evolutions of productivity and employment, 1994-2007</figcaption></figure>

Note: Manufacturing industries are considered at the 2-digit level using NACE codes between 15 (food) to 37 (recycling). Productivity and IT intensity values correspond to the upper scale while employment to the lower one.

Concentrating on IT-using industries might shed light on productivity evolutions in France. As in the United States, labor productivity gains in France seemed to slow down between 2005 and 2009 compared to the 1995-2005 period, with a major contribution of IT-using sectors within manufacturing and services (Sode, 2016). In addition, between 1987 and 1998, the contribution of IT capital accumulation on growth was substantial, at 0.7 point for a mean growth of 2.3%, but was mostly concentrated in IT-producing industries (0.4 point) and in services for IT-using ones<fnref n="23" /> (0.3 point) (Crépon and Heckel, 2000).

First, we estimate Equation (8) for the manufacturing sector with and without IT-producing industries, and compare France and the United States using a methodology identical to Acemoglu et al. (2014) for the later. The aim is to test whether IT related labor productivity gains in manufacturing are mostly driven by IT-producers in France as in the United States and whether some return of the Solow paradox could be seen for French IT-

<footnote n="23">²³In services, the corresponding IT-using industries are wholesale, retail trade, business services and rental and leasing services.</footnote>
using industries also.

Figure 2 plots the elasticities $\beta_{t'}$ through time $t'$ and the corresponding confidence intervals at the 5 percent level. Here, computer intensity is related to significant labor productivity gains for the whole manufacturing sector in France in the late 2000s (Panel a, left). For the United States, we replicate the strong and significant effects by Acemoglu et al. (2014) (Panel b, left). When excluding IT-producers in France, the outcomes are similar but are less clear-cut. The elasticities either for labor productivity or employment have the same small order of magnitude but become significant at the 5 percent level in the late 2000s (Panel a, right). This contrasts with the United States for which no more labor productivity gains are identified and coefficients are closer to zero (Panel b, right). Yet, employment also declines with higher computer intensity in the United States.

This comparison might first illustrate the lower weight of IT-producers in the French economy, while the high-tech sector, including GAFAs (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon,...), dramatically rose in the United States. Indeed, the market value of new technological leaders created in France represents only 6 percent of the European total<fnref n="24" />, as there is in France a high rate of start-up creation but scarce situations of substantial firm growth (France Stratégie, 2016). Second, without IT-producers, there are slightly significant labor productivity gains in France contrary to the United States. To a small extent, this stands in contrast with the results by Acemoglu et al. (2014) suggesting a potential return of the Solow paradox. For France, the puzzle consists in little rather than no labor productivity gains out of computerization. To understand these differences, we now delve into similar analyses disaggregating the IT-using manufacturing sector.

The relations between IT intensity and labor productivity previously observed may reflect heterogeneities among different categories of industries, as it has been illustrated by excluding IT-producing ones. Yet, industries also differ with respect to their production technology, and computers may not bring about identical labor productivity gains whether an industry mainly relies on routine tasks likely to be automated or on non-routine ones, notably when R&D is prominent (see Section 1). Here, we distinguish between low-techs (food, textile, furnitures,...) and mid/high techs (chemicals, machinery, transports,...) (see Section 2).

Equation (8) is separately estimated for low-tech and mid/high tech industry categories.

<footnote n="24">²⁴Compared to 38 percent for the United Kingdom, 25 percent for Sweden and 17 percent for Germany (France Stratégie, 2016).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2 – IT intensity and labor productivity/employment in manufacturing industries including IT producers (left) or excluding them (right)</figcaption></figure>

Note: Dotted lines correspond to confidence intervals at the 5 percent level. Each point corresponds to a coefficient $\beta_{t'}$ for a specific year $t'$. For the United States, $n = 387$ manufacturing industries ($n = 359$ when excluding IT-producing ones). For France, $n = 228$ manufacturing industries ($n = 218$ when excluding IT-producing ones). Regressions are weighted by mean employment shares. Standard errors are clustered by industry.

The samples are relatively balanced, as they include 96 and 150 observations each year respectively. In France, low-tech and mid/high-tech industries display sharply distinct behaviors. The most stringent pattern is the strong employment drop for low-tech industries with higher computer intensity (Figure 3, Panel a, left). On the contrary, mid/high-tech industries do not seem exposed to such massive computer related employment drops (Panel a, right). Labor productivity gains related to computerization are even stronger in low-tech industries than those previously obtained for the whole U.S. manufacturing including IT-producers. To test whether this divide is not specific to France, we replicate the same approach for the United States, following the correspondence between the 2-digit division labels in both countries (see Section 2). In the end, the patterns are exactly identical to
those observed for France (Panel b), indicating that common drivers may be at stake.

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3 – IT intensity and employment in low-tech industries (left) and mid-tech ones (right)</figcaption></figure>

Note: Dotted lines correspond to confidence intervals at the 5 percent level. Each point corresponds to a coefficient $\beta_{t'}$ for a specific year $t'$. Over the whole time period, for France (resp. for the United States), the number of low-tech manufacturing industries is 96 (resp. 150) while there are 122 (resp. 209) mid/high-tech ones.

For low-tech industries, labor productivity gains through substantial IT related labor cuts are consistent with computers allowing for an automation process reducing the use of routine labor. For mid/high tech industries, our results confirm the possibility of a return of the Solow paradox as underlined by Acemoglu et al. (2014) and refine it to these specific industries. For them, computers might be used for other purposes than automation, and these alternative uses might imply a compensating impact in terms of employment. As these industries are more R&D intensive, these alternative uses might involve more non routine work by high skilled workers. To shed light on this hypothesis, we next derive the same econometric approach for employment in different skill groups.
# 4 Extensions

In this Section, we provide additional results allowing to depict computer-related employment dynamics in manufacturing in terms of skill groups, and in comparison to services. First, the absence of effects of IT intensity among mid/high tech industries could be the outcome of distinct and opposite employment effects for different categories. Indeed, Table 3 displays that between 1994 and 2007, employment in manufacturing increased for all high-skilled 1-digit groups (craftsmen, shopkeepers and heads of businesses; higher managerial and intellectual occupations; and mid-level occupations) while it declined to a large extent for low-skilled ones (employees; and workers). Computerization since the late 1990s might have contributed to these different trends, and in particular the one affecting more qualified categories. Second, we extend the analysis to services to put our results on mid/high tech industries into perspective. Indeed, general employment evolutions differ between manufacturing and services: all declining SOG within manufacturing rose in services between 1994 and 2007.<fnref n="25" />

<table><caption>Table 3 – Evolutions of main SOG categories in manufacturing and services, full time equivalent jobs, 1994-2007</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">PCS</th><th rowspan="2">description</th><th colspan="2">manufacturing</th><th colspan="2">services</th></tr><tr><th>1994</th><th>2007</th><th>1994</th><th>2007</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2</td><td>Craftsmen, shopkeepers and heads of businesses</td><td>17 729</td><td>17 927</td><td>~</td><td>49 619</td><td>56 187</td><td>~</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Higher managerial and intellectual occupations</td><td>305 434</td><td>455 368</td><td>↑</td><td>561 454</td><td>1 220 060</td><td>↑</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Mid-level occupations</td><td>654 296</td><td>660 729</td><td>~</td><td>1 042 371</td><td>1 629 835</td><td>↑</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Employees</td><td>313 407</td><td>200 257</td><td>↓</td><td>1 218 221</td><td>1 716 317</td><td>↑</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Workers</td><td>1 820 172</td><td>1 570 193</td><td>↓</td><td>1 186 071</td><td>1 806 336</td><td>↑</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: *Déclarations Annuelles de Données Sociales*.

We estimate Equation (8) using the employment levels of high-skilled and low-skilled workers, and also their ratio as an alternative explained variable (see Section 2 for the composition of these categories). Figure 4 shows that results for total employment are the sum of differing evolutions for various categories. Among low-tech industries, computerization is associated with labor cuts concentrated among low-skilled but affecting also high-skilled to a lower extent. Among mid/high tech industries, the effects of computerization are not significant for low-skilled and positive and almost significant for high skilled. This picture is

<footnote n="25">²⁵Relatedly, Spieza et al. (2016) show that, between 1996 and 2011 among OECD countries, while the employment share of manufacturing declined by 5 points, it rose in business services by 4 points.</footnote>
blurred in levels, but the impact of computer use on the ratio between these two categories is
unambiguous over the whole time period and got stronger and stronger: computer-intensive
industries relied more and more on high-skilled compared to low-skilled, both among low-
tech and among mid/high tech industries. Yet, behind this common trend, the patterns
in terms of levels suggest that substitution may intervene more among low tech industries,
while complementarity might dominate among mid/high tech ones.

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4 – IT intensity and employment in manufacturing
with respect to technological level and employment categories</figcaption></figure>

Note: Dotted lines correspond to confidence intervals at the 5 percent level. Each point corresponds to a coefficient $\beta_{t'}$ for a specific year $t'$. Over the whole time period, for France (resp. for the United States), the number of low-tech manufacturing industries is 96 (resp. 150) while there are 122 (resp. 209) mid/high-tech ones.

In the previous Section, computerization had no labor productivity enhancing effect
among mid/high tech industries. Here, we show that higher computer intensity is associated
with a rise in the share of high-skilled workers. Both results are not incompatible in view
of the simple mechanisms presented in Section 1: a drop in the computer price might lead
to a rise in non routine work and to a labor enrichment of production. We let an extended
analysis of this conjecture for further work, while many other factors<fnref n="26" /> outside this model
might also intervene within these industries, and notably outsourcing.<fnref n="27" />

Similar exercises are carried out beyond the manufacturing sector in order to put the
corresponding results into a broader perspective. Beforehand, Equation (8) is estimated
for productivity in services. No significant effects are observed (unreported). Figure 5
displays the coefficients of Equation (8) using the productivity components, employment
and production, as the explained variables. The dynamics of both of them are significant,
and the signs of elasticities are opposite to those observed within IT-using manufacturing:
positive for both in services, negative for both in manufacturing. This symmetry could
be rationalized by outsourcing, computers providing means both to benefit from external
business services and to supply them.

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5 – IT intensity and employment and production
in IT-using manufacturing and service industries</figcaption></figure>

Note: Dotted lines correspond to confidence intervals at the 5 percent level. Each point corresponds to a coefficient $\beta_{t'}$ for a specific year $t'$. For manufacturing (resp. services), the number of IT-using industries is 218 (resp. 70).

In the end, our last results indicate that computerization was associated to workforce
reallocation over a long time span in France. They also broaden the perspective provided by

<footnote n="26">²⁶This simple theoretical framework abstracts from considerations relating IT use (i) to competition and concentration within an industry, (ii) to innovation types (process or products) affecting quantity or quality improvements, (iii) to wage differentials between high- and low-skilled workers, and (iv) to rising outsourcing, that could all affect production levels and costs at the firm and industry scales.</footnote>

<footnote n="27">²⁷Between 1970 and 2013 in the manufacturing sector, intermediate consumptions of services rose twice as rapidly as total intermediate consumptions (Rignols, 2016). This phenomenon also explains why regulations in services, and more generally in non-manufacturing "upstream" industries, can influence productivity in manufacturing (Cette, Lopez, and Mairesse, 2013).</footnote>
similar estimates for low-tech and mid/high-tech industries, in the sense that computerization
may destroy jobs in specific sectors while having neutral or positive effects in other parts of
the economy.

Conclusion

This work employs a methodology between the micro- and macroeconomic scales at the industry and skill levels. It suggests heterogeneities of computerization effects among industries with respect to their situation as producer or user of IT, their technological level, their intensity in various task types, and their position within the manufacturing or services sector: in France, IT-producers marginally weight on aggregate estimates; in both France and the United States, low-tech industries experience tremendous labor savings associated with computerization ; in France, in mid/high-tech manufacturing industries and services display signs of labor enrichment of production as computer investment rises. All our results suggest that computerization seems to foster economy-wide structural changes, with strong labor productivity improvements in declining industries and labor enrichment in rising ones. Further works could consist in analyzing wages for the industry and employment categories underlined in this paper: it would allow for developing a targeted analysis of polarization in France; it may also provide necessary empirical reference to structurally interpret our elasticities of labor demands in particular. Finally, preliminary estimates without clustered standard errors and using a sample of surviving firms indicate our results by technologies and skills hold true at the firm level also and might deserve further developments. Further work may also consist in exploring whether ICT use in mid/high-tech sectors could be associated to market power gains. This way, a somehow offensive ICT use could be distinguished from a defensive one oriented towards productivity improvements.

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M. Pak and A. Poissonnier. Accounting for technology, trade and final consumption in employment: an input-output decomposition. *Insee Working Papers*, G2016/11, 2016.

E. Rignols. L'industrie manufacturière de 1970 à 2014: Recul de son poids dans l'économie, plus marquée de 2000 à 2007. *Insee Première*, 1592, 2016.

A. Sode. Comprendre le ralentissement de la productivité en france. *Note d'analyse de France Stratégie*, 38, 2016.

V. Spieza, M. Polder, and G. Presidente. ICTs and jobs: complements or substitutes? the effects of ICT investment on labour demand by skills and by industry in selected oecd countries. *OECD report for the Working Party on Measurement and Analysis of the Digital Economy*, 2016.
# Appendix

## Case with a single task.

Here, a model with a single task is developed in order to obtain similar productivity expressions as for the polar cases in the theoretical section. In this context, the algebra is much simpler. The production function follows

$$Q = \left[ \theta^{\frac{1}{\sigma}} C^{\frac{\sigma-1}{\sigma}} + (1-\theta)^{\frac{1}{\sigma}} H^{\frac{\sigma-1}{\sigma}} \right]^{\frac{\alpha}{\sigma-1}}$$

and let be $X$ such that $Q = X^{\alpha \frac{\sigma}{\sigma-1}}$. The first order conditions are given by:

$$w = \alpha(1-\theta)^{\frac{1}{\sigma}} H^{-\frac{1}{\sigma}} X^{\alpha \frac{\sigma}{\sigma-1}-1}$$ 
and $p = \alpha \theta^{\frac{1}{\sigma}} C^{-\frac{1}{\sigma}} X^{\alpha \frac{\sigma}{\sigma-1}-1}$

Rearranging these equations, the demands for labor and computers are then such that:

$$H = \frac{(1-\theta)\alpha^{\sigma}}{w^{\sigma}} X^{\sigma\alpha} \frac{\sigma}{\sigma-1} - \sigma$$ 
and $C = \frac{\theta\alpha^{\sigma}}{p^{\sigma}} X^{\sigma\alpha} \frac{\sigma}{\sigma-1} - \sigma$

Using these expressions for production factors $H$ and $C$ within $Q$, $X$ is determined as a function of the exogenous production parameters and factor prices. Indeed:

$$X^{\sigma(\alpha-1)} = \alpha^{1-\sigma} \Lambda^{\sigma-1},$$ 
where $\Lambda = [\theta p^{1-\sigma} + (1-\theta)w^{1-\sigma}]^{1/(1-\sigma)}$

Finally, as both $Q$ and $H$ only depends on the endogenous variable $X$, labor productivity $Q/H$ has the following simple closed-form formula:

$$Q/H = \frac{1}{1-\theta} \frac{1}{\alpha} w^{\sigma} \Lambda^{1-\sigma} \quad (A1)$$

## Case with a positive mark-up also.

Previously, the production price was exogenous and set at one. The corresponding results

actually can be extended to the case where the firm set this price with a small positive mark-up.

Let us now consider $NQ$ rather than $Q$ as sales, where $N$ is the production price. And assume that $N = Q^{-\nu}$ (this form can be microfunded with Dixit-Stiglitz preferences where $\nu$ is the elasticity demand for each good, as used by Autor et al., 2003).

The same steps as in the previous case can be used and the intermediary results are marginally affected. The first order conditions and the equation determining $X$ are slightly modified:

$$H = \frac{(1-\theta)\tilde{\alpha}^{\sigma}}{w^{\sigma}} X^{\sigma\tilde{\alpha}} \frac{\tilde{\alpha}}{\tilde{\sigma}-1} - \sigma$$ 
$X^{\sigma(\tilde{\alpha}-1)} = \tilde{\alpha}^{1-\sigma} \Lambda^{\sigma-1}$ 
where $\tilde{\alpha} = \alpha(1-\nu)$

The mark-up $\nu$ exactly intervenes as if the coefficient $\alpha$ became $\alpha(1-\nu)$. The consecutive results are thus identical to the ones in the previous case so that nominal labor productivity $NQ/H$ follows Equation (A1) with $\tilde{\alpha}$ rather than $\alpha$.

Labor productivity now depends on the mark-up, but can be written as previously with additional multiplicative terms:

$$Q/H = \frac{1}{1-\theta} \frac{1}{\tilde{\alpha}} w^{\sigma} \Lambda^{1-\sigma} N^{-1}$$ 
where $N = \tilde{\alpha}^{-\mu} \Lambda^{\mu}$ and $\mu = -\frac{\alpha \nu \sigma}{\sigma(\tilde{\alpha}-1)}$.
<table><tr><td>G 9001</td><td>J. FAYOLLE et M. FLEURBAEY<br>Accumulation, profitabilité et endettement des entreprises</td></tr><tr><td>G 9002</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Détection et effets de la multicolinéarité dans les modèles linéaires ordinaires - Un prolongement de la réflexion de BELSLEY, KUH et WELSCH</td></tr><tr><td>G 9003</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Indexation des salaires : la rupture de 1983</td></tr><tr><td>G 9004</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br>Compétitivité, croissance et innovation de produit</td></tr><tr><td>G 9005</td><td>P. RALLE et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>Les conséquences de la désindexation. Analyse dans une maquette prix-salaires</td></tr><tr><td>G 9101</td><td>Équipe AMADEUS<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Première partie - Présentation générale</td></tr><tr><td>G 9102</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Deuxième partie - Propriétés variantielles</td></tr><tr><td>G 9103</td><td>D. GUELLEC et P. RALLE<br>Endogenous growth and product innovation</td></tr><tr><td>G 9104</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Le modèle AMADEUS - Troisième partie - Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international</td></tr><tr><td>G 9105</td><td>H. ROUSSE<br>Effets de demande et d'offre dans les résultats du commerce extérieur manufacturé de la France au cours des deux dernières décennies</td></tr><tr><td>G 9106</td><td>B. CREPON<br>Innovation, taille et concentration : causalités et dynamiques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9107</td><td>B. AMABLE et D. GUELLEC<br>Un panorama des théories de la croissance endogène</td></tr><tr><td>G 9108</td><td>M. GLAUDE et M. MOUTARDIER<br>Une évaluation du coût direct de l'enfant de 1979 à 1989</td></tr><tr><td>G 9109</td><td>P. RALLE et alii<br>France - Allemagne : performances économiques comparées</td></tr><tr><td>G 9110</td><td>J.L. BRILLET<br>Micro-DMS<br>NON PARU</td></tr><tr><td>G 9111</td><td>A. MAGNIER<br>Effets accélérateur et multiplicateur en France depuis 1970 : quelques résultats empiriques</td></tr><tr><td>G 9112</td><td>B. CREPON et G. DUREAU<br>Investissement en recherche-développement : analyse de causalités dans un modèle d'accélérateur généralisé</td></tr><tr><td>G 9113</td><td>J.L. BRILLET, H. ERKEL-ROUSSE, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE<br>"France-Allemagne Couplées" - Deux économies vues par une maquette macro-économétrique</td></tr><tr><td>G 9201</td><td>W.J. ADAMS, B. CREPON, D. ENCAOUA<br>Choix technologiques et stratégies de dissuasion d'entrée</td></tr><tr><td>G 9202</td><td>J. OLIVEIRA-MARTINS, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE</td></tr></table>

Macro-economic import functions with imperfect competition - An application to the E.C. Trade

G 9203
I. STAPIC
Les échanges internationaux de services de la France dans le cadre des négociations multilaterales du GATT
Juin 1992 (1ère version)
Novembre 1992 (version finale)

G 9204
P. SEVESTRE
L'économie sur données individuelles-temporelles. Une note introductive

G 9205
H. ERKEL-ROUSSE
Le commerce extérieur et l'environnement international dans le modèle AMADEUS (réestimation 1992)

G 9206
N. GREENAN et D. GUELLEC
Coordination within the firm and endogenous growth

G 9207
A. MAGNIER et J. TOUJAS-BERNATE
Technology and trade: empirical evidences for the major five industrialized countries

G 9208
B. CREPON, E. DUGUET, D. ENCAOUA et P. MOHNEN
Cooperative, non cooperative R & D and optimal patent life

G 9209
B. CREPON et E. DUGUET
Research and development, competition and innovation: an application of pseudo maximum likelihood methods to Poisson models with heterogeneity

G 9301
J. TOUJAS-BERNATE
Commerce international et concurrence impartie : développements récents et implications pour la politique commerciale

G 9302
Ch. CASES
Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature

G 9303
H. ERKEL-ROUSSE
Union économique et monétaire : le débat économique

G 9304
N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC / G. BROUSSAUDIER - L. MIOTTI
Innovation organisationnelle, dynamisme technologique et performances des entreprises

G 9305
P. JAILLARD
Le traité de Maastricht : présentation juridique et historique

G 9306
J.L. BRILLET
Micro-DMS : présentation et propriétés

G 9307
J.L. BRILLET
Micro-DMS - variantes : les tableaux

G 9308
S. JACOBZONE
Les grands réseaux publics français dans une perspective européenne

G 9309
L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE
Profitabilité de l'investissement productif et transmission des chocs financiers

G 9310
J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT
Les théories sur la structure optimale du capital : quelques points de repère

G 9311
J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT
Les décisions de financement des entreprises françaises : une évaluation empirique des théories de la structure optimale du capital

G 9312
L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE
Q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers

G 9313
Équipes Amadeus (INSEE), Banque de France, Métric (DP)
Présentation des propriétés des principaux modèles macroéconomiques du Service Public

G 9314
B. CREPON - E. DUGUET
Research & Development, competition and innovation

G 9315
B. DORMONT
Quelle est l'influence du coût du travail sur l'emploi ?

G 9316
D. BLANCHET - C. BROUSSE
Deux études sur l'âge de la retraite

G 9317
D. BLANCHET
Répartition du travail dans une population hétérogène : deux notes

G 9318
D. EYSSARTIER - N. PONTY
AMADEUS - an annual macro-economic model for the medium and long term

G 9319
G. CETTE - Ph. CUNÉO - D. EYSSARTIER - J. GAUTIÉ
Les effets sur l'emploi d'un abaissement du coût du travail des jeunes

G 9401
D. BLANCHET
Les structures par âge importent-elles ?

G 9402
J. GAUTIÉ
Le chômage des jeunes en France : problème de formation ou phénomène de file d'attente ?
Quelques éléments du débat

G 9403
P. QUIRION
Les déchets en France : éléments statistiques et économiques

G 9404
D. LADIRAY - M. GRUN-REHOMME
Lissage par moyennes mobiles - Le problème des extrémités de série

G 9405
V. MAILLARD
Théorie et pratique de la correction des effets de jours ouvrables

G 9406
F. ROSENWALD
La décision d'investir

G 9407
S. JACOBZONE
Les apports de l'économie industrielle pour définir la stratégie économique de l'hôpital public

G 9408
L. BLOCH, J. BOURDIEU, B. COLIN-SEDILLOT, G. LONGUEVILLE
Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté

G 9409
D. EYSSARTIER, P. MAIRE
Impacts macro-économiques de mesures d'aide au logement - quelques éléments d'évaluation

G 9410
F. ROSENWALD
Suivi conjoncturel de l'investissement

G 9411
C. DEFEUILLEY - Ph. QUIRION
Les déchets d'emballages ménagers : une

analyse économique des politiques française et allemande

G 9412
J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT
Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité
Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement

G 9413
B. DORMONT - M. PAUCHET
L'évaluation de l'élasticité emploi-salaire dépend-elle des structures de qualification ?

G 9414
I. KABLA
Le Choix de breveter une invention

G 9501
J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. SEDILLOT
Irreversible Investment and Uncertainty: When is there a Value of Waiting?

G 9502
L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ
Imperfections du marché du crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique

G 9503
D. GOUX - E. MAURIN
Les transformations de la demande de travail par qualification en France
Une étude sur la période 1970-1993

G 9504
N. GREENAN
Technologie, changement organisationnel, qualifications et emploi : une étude empirique sur l'industrie manufacturière

G 9505
D. GOUX - E. MAURIN
Persistence des hiérarchies sectorielles de salaires: un réexamen sur données françaises

G 9505
D. GOUX - E. MAURIN
Persistence of inter-industry wages differentials: a reexamination on matched worker-firm panel data

G 9506
S. JACOBZONE
Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective
NON PARU - article sorti dans Économie et Prévision n° 122 (1996) - pages 95 à 113

G 9507
G. CETTE - S. MAHFOUZ
Le partage primaire du revenu
Constat descriptif sur longue période

G 9601
Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direction de la Prévision - Érasme - INSEE - OFCE
Structures et propriétés de cinq modèles macro-économiques français

G 9602
Rapport d'activité de la DESE de l'année 1995

G 9603
J. BOURDIEU - A. DRAZNIEKS
L'octroi de crédit aux PME : une analyse à partir d'informations bancaires

G 9604
A. TOPIOL-BENSAÎD
Les implantations japonaises en France

G 9605
P. GENIER - S. JACOBZONE
Comportements de prévention, consommation d'alcool et tabagie : peut-on parler d'une gestion globale du capital santé ?

G 9606
Une modélisation microéconométrique empirique

G 9607
C. DOZ - F. LENGLART
Factor analysis and unobserved component models: an application to the study of French business surveys

G 9607
N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC
La théorie coopérative de la firme
<table>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9608</td>
    <td>N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC<br/>Technological innovation and employment<br/>reallocation</td>
    <td>G 9714</td>
    <td>F. LEQUILLER<br/>Does the French Consumer Price Index Over-<br/>state Inflation?</td>
    <td>G 9807</td>
    <td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études<br/>Synthèses Économiques - 1997</td>
    <td>Bis</td>
    <td>Une estimation de l'élasticité de l'emploi peu<br/>qualifié à son coût</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9609</td>
    <td>Ph. COUR - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>L'intégration asymétrique au sein du continent<br/>américain : un essai de modélisation</td>
    <td>G 9715</td>
    <td>X. BONNET<br/>Peut-on mettre en évidence les rigidités à la<br/>baisse des salaires nominaux ?<br/>Une étude sur quelques grands pays de l'OCDE</td>
    <td>G 9808</td>
    <td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Can a Conservative Governor Conduct an Ac-<br/>comodative Monetary Policy?</td>
    <td>G 9913</td>
    <td>Division « Redistribution et Politiques Sociales »<br/>Le modèle de microsimulation dynamique<br/>DESTINIE</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9610</td>
    <td>S. DUCHENE - G. FORGEOT - A. JACQUOT<br/>Analyse des évolutions récentes de la producti-<br/>vité apparente du travail</td>
    <td>G 9716</td>
    <td>N. IUNG - F. RUPPRECHT<br/>Productivité de la recherche et rendements<br/>d'échelle dans le secteur pharmaceutique<br/>français</td>
    <td>G 9809</td>
    <td>X. BONNET - E. DUBOIS - L. FAUVET<br/>Asymétrie des inflations relatives et menus costs<br/>: tests sur l'inflation française</td>
    <td>G 9914</td>
    <td>E. DUGUET<br/>Macro-commandes SAS pour l'économie des<br/>panels et des variables qualitatives</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9611</td>
    <td>X. BONNET - S. MAHFOUZ<br/>The influence of different specifications of wages-<br/>prices spirals on the measure of the NAIRU: the<br/>case of France</td>
    <td>G 9717</td>
    <td>E. DUGUET - I. KABLA<br/>Appropriation strategy and the motivations to use<br/>the patent system in France - An econometric<br/>analysis at the firm level</td>
    <td>G 9810</td>
    <td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>Sales and Advertising with Spillovers at the firm<br/>level: Estimation of a Dynamic Structural Model<br/>on Panel Data</td>
    <td>G 9915</td>
    <td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Évolution des flux d'emplois en France entre<br/>1990 et 1996 : une étude empirique à partir du<br/>fichier des bénéfices réels normaux (BRN)</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9612</td>
    <td>PH. COUR - E. DUBOIS, S. MAHFOUZ, J. PISANI-FERRY<br/>The cost of fiscal retrenchment revisited: how<br/>strong is the evidence?</td>
    <td>G 9718</td>
    <td>L.P. PELÉ - P. RALLE<br/>Âge de la retraite : les aspects incitatifs du régime<br/>général</td>
    <td>G 9811</td>
    <td>J.P. BERTHIER<br/>Congestion urbaine : un modèle de trafic de<br/>pointe à courbe débit-vitesse et demande<br/>élastique</td>
    <td>G 9916</td>
    <td>J.Y. FOURNIER<br/>Extraction du cycle des affaires : la méthode de<br/>Baxter et King</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9613</td>
    <td>A. JACQUOT<br/>Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seule-<br/>ment conjoncturelles ?</td>
    <td>G 9719</td>
    <td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique français-chinois,<br/>chinois-français</td>
    <td>G 9812</td>
    <td>C. PRIGENT<br/>La part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée : une<br/>approche macroéconomique</td>
    <td>G 9917</td>
    <td>B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ - J. MAIRESSÉ<br/>Estimating price cost margins, scale economies<br/>and workers' bargaining power at the firm level</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9614</td>
    <td>ZHANG Yingxiang - SONG Xueqing<br/>Lexique macroéconomique Français-Chinois</td>
    <td>G 9720</td>
    <td>M. HOUDEBINE - J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Mesurer l'influence de la fiscalité sur la locali-<br/>sation des entreprises</td>
    <td>G 9813</td>
    <td>A.Th. AERTS<br/>L'évolution de la part des salaires dans la valeur<br/>ajoutée en France reflète-t-elle les évolutions<br/>individuelles sur la période 1979-1994 ?</td>
    <td>G 9918</td>
    <td>Ch. GIANELLA - Ph. LAGARDE<br/>Productivity of hours in the aggregate production<br/>function: an evaluation on a panel of French firms<br/>from the manufacturing sector</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9701</td>
    <td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>La taxe professionnelle : éléments de cadrage<br/>économique</td>
    <td>G 9721</td>
    <td>A. MOUROUGANE<br/>Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire<br/>A revue de la littérature</td>
    <td>G 9814</td>
    <td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires</td>
    <td>G 9919</td>
    <td>S. AUDRIC - P. GIVORD - C. PROST<br/>Évolution de l'emploi et des coûts par quali-<br/>fication entre 1982 et 1996</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9702</td>
    <td>J.L. SCHNEIDER<br/>Transition et stabilité politique d'un système<br/>redistributif</td>
    <td>G 9722</td>
    <td>P. AUGERAUD - L. BRIOT<br/>Les données comptables d'entreprises<br/>Le système intermédiaire d'entreprises<br/>Passage des données individuelles aux données<br/>sectorielles</td>
    <td>G 9901</td>
    <td>S. DUCHÈNE - A. JACQUOT<br/>Une croissance plus riche en emplois depuis le<br/>début de la décennie ? Une analyse en compa-<br/>raison internationale</td>
    <td>G 2000/01</td>
    <td>R. MAHIEU<br/>Les déterminants des dépenses de santé : une<br/>approche macroéconomique</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9703</td>
    <td>D. GOUX - E. MAURIN<br/>Train or Pay: Does it Reduce Inequalities to En-<br/>courage Firms to Train their Workers?</td>
    <td>G 9723</td>
    <td>P. AUGERAUD - J.E. CHAPRON<br/>Using Business Accounts for Compiling National<br/>Accounts: the French Experience</td>
    <td>G 9902</td>
    <td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Modélisation des carrières dans Destinie</td>
    <td>G 2000/02</td>
    <td>C. ALLARD-PRIGENT - H. GUILMEAU -<br/>A. QUINET<br/>The real exchange rate as the relative price of<br/>nontrables in terms of tradables: theoretical<br/>investigation and empirical study on French data</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9704</td>
    <td>P. GENIER<br/>Deux contributions sur dépendance et équité</td>
    <td>G 9724</td>
    <td>P. AUGERAUD<br/>Les comptes d'entreprise par activités - Le pas-<br/>sage aux comptes - De la comptabilité<br/>d'entreprise à la comptabilité nationale - A<br/>paraitre</td>
    <td>G 9903</td>
    <td>Ch. COLIN<br/>Évolution de la dispersion des salaires : un essai<br/>de prospective par microsimulation</td>
    <td>G 2000/03</td>
    <td>J.-Y. FOURNIER<br/>L'approximation du filtre passe-bande proposée<br/>par Christiano et Fitzgerald</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9705</td>
    <td>E. DUGUET - N. IUNG<br/>R & D Investment, Patent Life and Patent Value<br/>An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level</td>
    <td>G 9801</td>
    <td>H. MICHAUDON - C. PRIGENT<br/>Présentation du modèle AMADEUS</td>
    <td>G 9904</td>
    <td>B. CREPON - N. IUNG<br/>Innovation, emploi et performances</td>
    <td>G 2000/04</td>
    <td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1999</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9706</td>
    <td>M. HOUDEBINE - A. TOPIOL-BENSAÏD<br/>Les entreprises internationales en France : une<br/>analyse à partir de données individuelles</td>
    <td>G 9802</td>
    <td>J. ACCARDO<br/>Une étude de comptabilité générationnelle<br/>pour la France en 1996</td>
    <td>G 9905</td>
    <td>B. CREPON - Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Wages inequalities in France 1969-1992<br/>An application of quantile regression techniques</td>
    <td>G 2000/05</td>
    <td>B. CREPON - F. ROSENWALD<br/>Investissement et contraintes de financement : le<br/>poids du cycle<br/>Une estimation sur données françaises</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9707</td>
    <td>M. HOUDEBINE<br/>Polarisation des activités et spécialisation des<br/>départements en France</td>
    <td>G 9803</td>
    <td>X. BONNET - S. DUCHÈNE<br/>Apports et limites de la modélisation<br/>« Real Business Cycles »</td>
    <td>G 9906</td>
    <td>C. BONNET - R. MAHIEU<br/>Microsimulation techniques applied to inter-<br/>generational transfers - Pensions in a dynamic<br/>framework: the case of France</td>
    <td>G 2000/06</td>
    <td>A. FLIPO<br/>Les comportements matrimoniaux de fait</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9708</td>
    <td>E. DUGUET - N. GREENAN<br/>Le biais technologique : une analyse sur données<br/>individuelles</td>
    <td>G 9804</td>
    <td>C. BARLET - C. DUGUET -<br/>D. ENCAOUA - J. PRADEL<br/>The Commercial Success of Innovations<br/>An econometric analysis at the firm level in<br/>French manufacturing</td>
    <td>G 9907</td>
    <td>F. ROSENWALD<br/>L'impact des contraintes financières dans la dé-<br/>cision d'investissement</td>
    <td>G 2000/07</td>
    <td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Microsimulations of the retirement decision: a<br/>supply side approach</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9709</td>
    <td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Analyzing a small French ECM Model</td>
    <td>G 9805</td>
    <td>P. CAHUC - Ch. GIANELLA -<br/>D. GOUX - A. ZILBERBERG<br/>Equalizing Wage Differences and Bargaining<br/>Power - Evidence form a Panel of French Firms</td>
    <td>G 9908</td>
    <td>Bilan des activités de la DESE - 1998</td>
    <td>G 2000/08</td>
    <td>C. AUDENIS - C. PROST<br/>Déficit conjoncturel : une prise en compte des<br/>conjonctures passées</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9710</td>
    <td>J.L. BRILLET<br/>Formalizing the transition process: scenarios for<br/>capital accumulation</td>
    <td>G 9806</td>
    <td>J. ACCARDO - M. JLASSI<br/>La productivité globale des facteurs entre 1975 et<br/>1996</td>
    <td>G 9909</td>
    <td>J.P. ZOYEM<br/>Contrat d'insertion et sortie du RMI<br/>Évaluation des effets d'une politique sociale</td>
    <td>G 2000/09</td>
    <td>R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT<br/>Équivalent patrimonial de la rente et souscription<br/>de retraite complémentaire</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9711</td>
    <td>G. FORGEOT - J. GAUTIÉ<br/>Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et processus<br/>de déclassement</td>
    <td>G 9910</td>
    <td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une décomposition du non-emploi en France</td>
    <td>G 9911</td>
    <td>Ch. COLIN - FI. LEGROS - R. MAHIEU<br/>Bilans contributifs comparés des régimes de<br/>retraite du secteur privé et de la fonction publique</td>
    <td>G 2000/10</td>
    <td>R. DUHAUTOIS<br/>Ralentissement de l'investissement : petites ou<br/>grandes entreprises ? industrie ou tertiaire ?</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9712</td>
    <td>E. DUBOIS<br/>High Real Interest Rates: the Consequence of a<br/>Saving Investment Disequilibrium or of an in-<br/>sufficient Credibility of Monetary Authorities?</td>
    <td>G 9912</td>
    <td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une maquette analytique de long terme du<br/>marché du travail</td>
    <td>G 9912</td>
    <td>B. SALANIÉ<br/>Une maquette analytique de long terme du<br/>marché du travail</td>
    <td>G 2000/11</td>
    <td>G. LAROQUE - B. SALANIÉ<br/>Temps partiel féminin et incitations financières à<br/>l'emploi</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>G 9713</td>
    <td>Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études<br/>et Synthèses Économiques - 1996</td>
    <td>G 9912</td>
    <td>Ch. GIANELLA</td>
    <td>G 9912</td>
    <td>Ch. GIANELLA</td>
    <td>G2000/12</td>
    <td>Ch. GIANELLA<br/>Local unemployment and wages</td>
  </tr>
</table>
G2000/13 B. CREPON - Th. HECKEL
- Informatisation en France : une évaluation à partir de données individuelles
- Computerization in France: an evaluation based on individual company data

G2001/01 F. LEQUILLER
- La nouvelle économie et la mesure de la croissance du PIB
- The new economy and the measure ment of GDP growth

G2001/02 S. AUDRIC
La reprise de la croissance de l'emploi profite-t-elle aussi aux non-diplômés ?

G2001/03 I. BRAUN-LEMAIRE
Évolution et répartition du surplus de productivité

G2001/04 A. BEAUDU - Th. HECKEL
Le canal du crédit fonctionne-t-il en Europe ? Une étude de l'hétérogénéité des comportements d'investissement à partir de données de bilan agréées

G2001/05 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE - O. LOISEL
Testing the augmented Solow growth model: An empirical reassessment using panel data

G2001/06 R. MAHIEU - B. SÉDILLOT
Départ à la retraite, irréversibilité et incertitude

G2001/07 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2000

G2001/08 J. Ph. GAUDEMET
Les dispositifs d'acquisition à titre facultatif d'annuités viagères de retraite

G2001/09 B. CRÉPON - Ch. GIANELLA
Fiscalité, coût d'usage du capital et demande de facteurs : une analyse sur données individuelles

G2001/10 B. CRÉPON - R. DESPLATZ
Évaluation des effets des dispositifs d'allégements de charges sociales sur les bas salaires

G2001/11 J.-Y. FOURNIER
Comparaison des salaires des secteurs public et privé

G2001/12 J.-P. BERTHIER - C. JAULENT
R. CONVENEVOLE - S. PISANI
Une méthodologie de comparaison entre consommations intermédiaires de source fiscale et de comptabilité nationale

G2001/13 P. BISCOURP - Ch. GIANELLA
Substitution and complementarity between capital, skilled and less skilled workers: an analysis at the firm level in the French manufacturing industry

G2001/14 I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Modelling demographic behaviours in the French microsimulation model Destinie: An analysis of future change in completed fertility

G2001/15 J.-P. ZOYEM
Diagnostic sur la pauvreté et calendrier de revenus : le cas du "Panel européen des ménages »

G2001/16 J.-Y. FOURNIER - P. GIVORD
La réduction des taux d'activité aux âges extrêmes, une spécificité française ?

G2001/17 C. AUDENIS - P. BISCOURP - N. RIEDINGER
Existe-t-il une asymétrie dans la transmission du prix du brut aux prix des carburants ?

G2002/01 F. MAGNIEN - J.-L. TAVERNIER - D. THESMAR
Les statistiques internationales de PIB par habitant en standard de pouvoir d'achat : une analyse des résultats

G2002/02 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2001

G2002/03 B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ?

G2002/04 G. BRILHAULT
- Rétroposition des séries de FBCF et calcul du capital fixe en SEC-95 dans les comptes nationaux français

- Retroposition of the investment series (GFCF) and estimation of fixed capital stocks on the ESA-95 basis for the French balance sheets

G2002/05 P. BISCOURP - B. CRÉPON - T. HECKEL - N. RIEDINGER

How do firms respond to cheaper computers? Microeconometric evidence for France based on a production function approach

G2002/06 C. AUDENIS - J. DERDYON - N. FOURCADE
L'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication sur l'économie française - un bouclage macro-économique

G2002/07 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Évaluation de trois réformes du Régime Général d'assurance vieillesse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2002/08 J.-P. BERTHIER
Réflexions sur les différentes notions de volume dans les comptes nationaux : comptes aux prix d'une année fixe ou aux prix de l'année précédente, séries chaînées

G2002/09 F. HILD
Les soldes d'opinion résument-ils au mieux les réponses des entreprises aux enquêtes de conjoncture ?

G2002/10 I. ROBERT-BOBÉE
Les comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation Destinie - Une comparaison des estimations issues des enquêtes Jeunes et Carrières 1997 et Histoire Familiale 1999

G2002/11 J.-P. ZOYEM
La dynamique des bas revenus : une analyse des entrées-sorties de pauvreté

G2002/12 F. HILD
Prévisions d'inflation pour la France

G2002/13 M. LECLAIR
Réduction du temps de travail et tensions sur les facteurs de production

G2002/14 E. WALRAET - A. VINCENT
- Analyse de la redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé - Une approche par microsimulation
- Intragenerational distributional analysis in the french private sector pension scheme - A microsimulation approach

G2002/15 P. CHONE - D. LE BLANC - I. ROBERT-BOBEE
Offre de travail féminine et garde des jeunes enfants

G2002/16 F. MAUREL - S. GREGOIR
Les indices de compétitivité des pays : inter-prétation et limites

G2003/01 N. RIEDINGER - E.HAUVY
Le coût de dépollution atmosphérique pour les entreprises françaises : Une estimation à partir de données individuelles

G2003/02 P. BISCOURP et F. KRAMARZ
Création d'emplois, destruction d'emplois et internationalisation des entreprises industrielles françaises : une analyse sur la période 1986-1992

G2003/03 Bilan des activités de la DESE - 2002

G2003/04 P.-O. BEFFY - J. DERDYON - N. FOURCADE - S. GREGOIR - N. LAÏB - B. MONFORT
Évolutions démographiques et croissance : une projection macro-économique à l'horizon 2020

G2003/05 P. AUBERT
La situation des salariés de plus de cinquante ans dans le secteur privé

G2003/06 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON
Age, salaire et productivité
La productivité des salariés décline-t-elle en fin de carrière ?

G2003/07 H. BARON - P.O. BEFFY - N. FOURCADE - R. MAHIEU
Le ralentissement de la productivité du travail au cours des années 1990

G2003/08 P.-O. BEFFY - B. MONFORT
Patrimoine des ménages, dynamique d'allocation et comportement de consommation

G2003/09 P. BISCOURP - N. FOURCADE
Peut-on mettre en évidence l'existence de rigidités à la baisse des salaires à partir de données individuelles ? Le cas de la France à la fin des années 90

G2003/10 M. LECLAIR - P. PETIT
Présence syndicale dans les firmes : quel impact sur les inégalités salariales entre les hommes et les femmes ?

G2003/11 P.-O. BEFFY - X. BONNET - M. DARRACQ-PARIES - B. MONFORT
MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

G2004/01 P. AUBERT - M. LECLAIR
La compétitivité exprimée dans les enquêtes trimestrielles sur la situation et les perspectives dans l'industrie

G2004/02 M. DUÉE - C. REBILLARD
La dépendance des personnes âgées : une projection à long terme

G2004/03 S. RASPILLER - N. RIEDINGER
Régulation environnementale et choix de localisation des groupes français

G2004/04 A. NABOULET - S. RASPILLER
Les déterminants de la décision d'investir : une approche par les perceptions subjectives des firmes

G2004/05 N. RAGACHE
La déclaration des enfants par les couples non mariés est-elle fiscalement optimale ?

G2004/06 M. DUÉE
L'impact du chômage des parents sur le devenir scolaire des enfants

G2004/07 P. AUBERT - E. CAROLI - M. ROGER
New Technologies, Workplace Organisation and the Age Structure of the Workforce: Firm-Level Evidence

G2004/08 E. DUGUET - C. LELARGE
Les brevets accroissent-ils les incitations privées à innover ? Un examen microéconomique

G2004/09 S. RASPILLER - P. SILLARD
Affiliating versus Subcontracting: the Case of Multinationals

G2004/10 J. BOISSINOT - C. L'ANGEVIN - B. MONFORT
Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case

G2004/11 S. ANANIAN - P. AUBERT
Travailleurs âgés, nouvelles technologies et changements organisationnels : un réexamen à partir de l'enquête « REPONSE »

G2004/12 X. BONNET - H. PONCET
Structures de revenus et propensions différentes à consommer - Vers une équation de consommation des ménages plus robuste en prévision pour la France

G2004/13 C. PICART
Évaluer la rentabilité des sociétés non financières

G2004/14 J. BARDAJI - B. SÉDILLOT - E. WALRAET
Les retraites du secteur public : projections à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation DESTINIE

G2005/01 S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Conditions de départ en retraite selon l'âge de fin d'études : analyse prospective pour les générations 1945 à 1974

G2005/02 C. AFSA - S. BUFFETEAU
L'évolution de l'activité féminine en France : une approche par pseudo-panel

G2005/03 P. AUBERT - P. SILLARD
Délocalisations et réductions d'effectifs dans l'industrie française

G2005/04 M. LECLAIR - S. ROUX
Mesure et utilisation des emplois instables dans les entreprises

G2005/05 C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances à l'exportation de la France et de l'Allemagne - Une analyse par secteur et destination géographique

G2005/06 Bilan des activités de la Direction des Études et Synthèses Economiques - 2004

G2005/07 S. RASPILLER
La concurrence fiscale : principaux enseignements de l'analyse économique

G2005/08 C. L'ANGEVIN - N. LAÏB
Éducation et croissance en France et dans un panel de 21 pays de l'OCDE
G2005/09 N. FERRARI
Prévoir l'investissement des entreprises
Un indicateur des révisions dans l'enquête de
conjoncture sur les investissements dans
l'industrie.

G2005/10 P.-O. BEFFY - C. L'ANGEVIN
Chômage et boucle prix-salaires :
apport d'un modèle « qualifiés/peu qualifiés »

G2005/11 B. HEITZ
A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation
in France and the USA: credible target VS
inflation spiral

G2005/12 O. BIAU - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - N. FERRARI
Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de
conjoncture et prévision macroéconomiques :
Exemple de la prévision de la production
manufacturière

G2005/13 P. AUBERT - D. BLANCHET - D. BLAU
The labour market after age 50: some elements
of a Franco-American comparison

G2005/14 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND - P. DOUGRONN - P. POLLET
L'enquête SHARE : présentation et premiers
résultats de l'édition française

G2005/15 M. DUÉE
La modélisation des comportements démographiques dans le modèle de microsimulation
DESTINIE

G2005/16 H. RAOUI - S. ROUX
Étude de simulation sur la participation versée
aux salariés par les entreprises

G2006/01 C. BONNET - S. BUFFETEAU - P. GODEFROY
Disparités de retraite de droit direct entre
hommes et femmes : quelles évolutions ?

G2006/02 C. PICART
Les gazelles en France

G2006/03 P. AUBERT - B. CRÉPON - P. ZAMORA
Le rendement apparent de la formation continue
dans les entreprises : effets sur la productivité et
les salaires

G2006/04 J.-F. OUVRARD - R. RATHELOT
Demographic change and unemployment:
what do macroeconomic models predict?

G2006/05 D. BLANCHET - J.-F. OUVRARD
Indicateurs d'engagements implicites des
systèmes de retraite : chiffrages, propriétés
analytiques et réactions à des chocs
démographiques types

G2006/06 G. BIAU - O. BIAU - L. ROUVIERE
Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing
Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

G2006/07 C. AFSA - P. GIVORD
Le rôle des conditions de travail dans les
absences pour maladie

G2006/08 P. SILLARD - C. L'ANGEVIN - S. SERRAVALLE
Performances comparées à l'exportation de la
France et de ses principaux partenaires
Une analyse structurelle sur 12 ans

G2006/09 X. BOUTIN - S. QUANTIN
Une méthodologie d'évaluation comptable du
coût du capital des entreprises françaises : 1984-
2002

G2006/10 C. AFSA
L'estimation d'un coût implicite de la pénibilité du
travail chez les travailleurs âgés

G2006/11 C. LELARGE
Les entreprises (industrielles) françaises sont-
elles à la frontière technologique ?

G2006/12 O. BIAU - N. FERRARI
Théorie de l'opinion
Faut-il pondérer les réponses individuelles ?

G2006/13 A. KOUBI - S. ROUX
Une réinterprétation de la relation entre
productivité et inégalités salariales dans les
entreprises

G2006/14 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
The impact of local taxes on plants location
decision

G2006/15 L. GONZALEZ - C. PICART
Diversification, recentrage et poids des activités
de support dans les groupes (1993-2000)

G2007/01 D. SRAER
Allègements de cotisations patronales et
dynamique salariale

G2007/02 V. ALBOUY - L. LEQUIEN
Les rendements non monétaires de l'éducation :
le cas de la santé

G2007/03 D. BLANCHET - T. DEBRAND
Aspiration à la retraite, santé et satisfaction au
travail : une comparaison européenne

G2007/04 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON
Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur
la croissance française ?

G2007/05 C. PICART
Flux d'emploi et de main-d'œuvre en France : un
réexamen

G2007/06 V. ALBOUY - C. TAVAN
Massification et démocratisation de
l'enseignement supérieur en France

G2007/07 T. LE BARBANCHON
The Changing response to oil price shocks in
France: a DSGE type approach

G2007/08 T. CHANEY - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Collateral Value and Corporate Investment
Evidence from the French Real Estate Market

G2007/09 J. BOISSINOT
Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts for
France

G2007/10 C. AFSA
Interpréter les variables de satisfaction :
l'exemple de la durée du travail

G2007/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD
Zones Franches Urbaines : quels effets sur
l'emploi salarié et les créations
d'établissements ?

G2007/12 V. ALBOUY - B. CRÉPON
Aléa moral en santé : une évaluation dans le
cadre du modèle causal de Rubin

G2008/01 C. PICART
Les PME françaises : rentables mais peu
dynamiques

G2008/02 P. BISCOURP - X. BOUTIN - T. VERGÉ
The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices
Evidence form the Loi Galland

G2008/03 Y. BARBESOL - A. BRIANT
Économies d'agglomération et productivité des
entreprises : estimation sur données individuelles
françaises

G2008/04 D. BLANCHET - F. LE GALLO
Les projections démographiques : principaux
mécanismes et retour sur l'expérience française

G2008/05 D. BLANCHET - F. TOUTLEMONDE
Évolutions démographiques et déformation du
cycle de vie active : quelles relations ?

G2008/06 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - L. CRUSSON
Internationalisation et flux d'emplois : que dit une
approche comptable ?

G2008/07 C. LELARGE - D. SRAER - D. THESMAR
Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints -
Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee
Program

G2008/08 X. BOUTIN - L. JANIN
Are Prices Really Affected by Mergers?

G2008/09 M. BARLET - A. BRIANT - L. CRUSSON
Concentration géographique dans l'industrie
manufacturière et dans les services en France :
une approche par un indicateur en continu

G2008/10 M. BEFFY - É. COUDIN - R. RATHELOT
Who is confronted to insecure labor market
histories? Some evidence based on the French
labor market transition

G2008/11 M. ROGER - E. WALRAET
Social Security and Well-Being of the Elderly: the
Case of France

G2008/12 C. AFSA
Analyser les composantes du bien-être et de son
 évolution
Une approche empirique sur données
individuelles

G2008/13 M. BARLET - D. BLANCHET - T. LE BARBANCHON
Microsimuler le marché du travail : un prototype

G2009/01 P.-A. PIONNIER
Le partage de la valeur ajoutée en France,
1949-2007

G2009/02 Laurent CLAVEL - Christelle MINODIER
A Monthly Indicator of the French Business
Climate

G2009/03 H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - C. MINODIER
Do Business Tendency Surveys in Industry and
Services Help in Forecasting GDP Growth?
A Real-Time Analysis on French Data

G2009/04 P. GIVORD - L. WILNER
Les contrats temporaires : trappe ou marchepied
vers l'emploi stable ?

G2009/05 G. LALANNE - P.-A. PIONNIER - O. SIMON
Le partage des fruits de la croissance de 1950 à
2008 : une approche par les comptes de surplus

G2009/06 L. DAVEZIES - X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE
Faut-il pondérer ?... Ou l'éternelle question de
l'économètre confronté à des données d'enquête

G2009/07 S. QUANTIN - S. RASPILLER - S. SERRAVALLE
Commerce intragroupe, fiscalité et prix de
transferts : une analyse sur données françaises

G2009/08 M. CLERC - V. MARCUS
Élasticités - prix des consommations énergétiques
des ménages

G2009/09 G. LALANNE - E. POULIQUEN - O. SIMON
Prix du pétrole et croissance potentielle à long
termes

G2009/10 D. BLANCHET - J. LE CACHEUX - V. MARCUS
Adjusted net savings and other approaches to
sustainability: some theoretical background

G2009/11 V. BELLAMY - G. CONSALES - M. FESSEAU - S. LE LAIDIER - É. RAYNAUD
Une décomposition du compte des ménages de
la comptabilité nationale par catégorie de
ménage en 2003

G2009/12 J. BARDAJI - F. TALLET
Detecting Economic Regimes in France: a
Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using
Mixed Frequency Data

G2009/13 R. AEBERHARDT - D. FOUGÈRE - R. RATHELOT
Discrimination à l'embauche : comment exploiter
les procédures de testing ?

G2009/14 Y. BARBESOL - P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN
Partage de la valeur ajoutée, approche par
données microéconomiques

G2009/15 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE
The Effect of the Uruguay round on the Intensive
and Extensive Margins of Trade

G2010/01 C. MINODIER
Avantages comparés des séries des premières
valeurs publiées et des séries des valeurs
révisées - Un exercice de prévision en temps réel
de la croissance trimestrielle du PIB en France

G2010/02 V. ALBOUY - L. DAVEZIES - T. DEBRAND
Health Expenditure Models: a Comparison of Five
Specifications using Panel Data

G2010/03 C. KLEIN - O. SIMON
Le modèle MÉSANGE réestimé en base 2000
Tome 1 – Version avec volumes à prix constants

G2010/04 M.-É. CLERC - É. COUDIN
L'IPC, miroir de l'évolution du coût de la vie en
France ? Ce qu'apporte l'analyse des courbes
d'Engel

G2010/05 N. CECI-RENAUD - P.-A. CHEVALIER
Les seuils de 10, 20 et 50 salariés : impact sur la
taille des entreprises françaises

G2010/06 R. AEBERHARDT - J. POUGET
National Origin Differences in Wages and
Hierarchical Positions - Evidence on French Full-
Time Male Workers from a matched Employer-
Employee Dataset

G2010/07 S. BLASCO - P. GIVORD
Les trajectoires professionnelles en début de vie
active : quel impact des contrats temporaires ?

G2010/08 P. GIVORD
Méthodes économétriques pour l'évaluation de
politiques publiques
G2010/09 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. LAPÈGUE - E. POULIQUEN - M. BEFFY - M. GAINI Quelle croissance de moyen terme après la crise ?

G2010/10 I. BUONO - G. LALANNE La réaction des entreprises françaises à la baisse des tarifs douaniers étrangers

G2010/11 R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD L'apport des méthodes à noyaux pour mesurer la concentration géographique - Application à la concentration des immigrés en France de 1968 à 1999

G2010/12 M. BARATON - M. BEFFY - D. FOUGÈRE Une évaluation de l'effet de la réforme de 2003 sur les départs en retraite - Le cas des enseignants du second degré public

G2010/13 D. BLANCHET - S. BUFFETEAU - E. CRENNER S. LE MINEZ Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2: principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats

G2010/14 D. BLANCHET - E. CRENNER Le bloc retraites du modèle Destinie 2: guide de l'utilisateur

G2010/15 M. BARLET - L. CRUSSON - S. DUPUCH - F. PUECH Des services échangés aux services échangeables : une application sur données françaises

G2010/16 M. BEFFY - T. KAMIONKA Public-private wage gaps: is civil-servant human capital sector-specific?

G2010/17 P.-Y. CABANNES - H. ERKEL-ROUSSE - G. LALANNE - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Le modèle Mésange réestimé en base 2000 Tome 2 - Version avec volumes à prix chaînes

G2010/18 R. AEBERHARDT - L. DAVEZIES Conditional Logit with one Binary Covariate: Link between the Static and Dynamic Cases

G2011/01 T. LE BARBANCHON - B. OURLIAC - O. SIMON Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjonctuels des années 1986 à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE

G2011/02 C. MARBOT Une évaluation de la réduction d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile

G2011/03 L. DAVEZIES Modèles à effets fixes, à effets aléatoires, modèles mixtes ou multi-niveaux: propriétés et mises en œuvre des modélisations de l'hétérogénéité dans le cas de données groupées

G2011/04 M. ROGER - M. WASMER Heterogeneity matters: labour productivity differentiated by age and skills

G2011/05 J.-C. BRICONGNE - J.-M. FOURNIER V. LAPÈGUE - O. MONSO De la crise financière à la crise économique L'impact des perturbations financières de 2007 et 2008 sur la croissance de sept pays industrialisés

G2011/06 P. CHARNOZ - É. COUDIN - M. GAINI Wage inequalities in France 1976-2004: a quantile regression analysis

G2011/07 M. CLERC - M. GAINI - D. BLANCHET Recommendations of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report: A few illustrations

G2011/08 M. BACHELET - M. BEFFY - D. BLANCHET Projeter l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus : une comparaison de trois modèles

G2011/09 C. LOUVOT-RUNAVOT L'évaluation de l'activité dissimulée des entreprises sur la base des contrôles fiscaux et son insertion dans les comptes nationaux

G2011/10 A. SCHREIBER - A. VICARD La tertiairisation de l'économie française et le ralentissement de la productivité entre 1978 et 2008

G2011/11 M.-É. CLERC - O. MONSO - E. POULIQUEN Les inégalités entre générations depuis le baby-boom

G2011/12 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Évaluation de la transformation de la réduction d'impôt en crédit d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile en 2007

G2011/13 P. GIVORD - R. RATHELOT - P. SILLARD Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects: An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program

G2011/14 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. GIVORD - X. BOUTIN The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: the Case of the French "Bonus/Malus"

G2011/15 M. BARLET - M. CLERC - M. GARNEO - V. LAPÈGUE - V. MARCUS La nouvelle version du modèle MZE, modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro

G2011/16 R. AEBERHARDT - I. BUONO - H. FADINGER Learning, Incomplete Contracts and Export Dynamics: Theory and Evidence form French Firms

G2011/17 C. KERDRAIN - V. LAPÈGUE Restrictive Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Likely Effects?

G2012/01 P. GIVORD - S. QUANTIN - C. TREVIEN A Long-Term Evaluation of the First Generation of the French Urban Enterprise Zones

G2012/02 N. CECI-RENAUD - V. COTTET Politique salariale et performance des entreprises

G2012/03 P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Do Consumers Correctly Expect Price Reductions? Testing Dynamic Behavior

G2012/04 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD School as a shelter? School leaving-age and the business cycle in France

G2012/05 M. GAINI - A. LEDUC - A. VICARD A scarred generation? French evidence on young people entering into a tough labour market

G2012/06 P. AUBERT - M. BACHELET Disparités de montant de pension et redistribution dans le système de retraite français

G2012/07 R. AEBERHARDT - P GIVORD - C. MARBOT Spillover Effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach

G2012/08 A. EIDELMAN - F. LANGUMIER - A. VICARD Prélèvements obligatoires reposant sur les ménages : des canaux redistributifs différents en 1990 et 2010

G2012/09 O. BARGAIN - A. VICARD Le RMI et son successeur le RSA découragent-ils certains jeunes de travailler ? Une analyse sur les jeunes autour de 25 ans

G2012/10 C. MARBOT - D. ROY Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie

G2012/11 A. MAUROUX Le crédit d'impôt dédié au développement durable : une évaluation économique

G2012/12 V. COTTET - S. QUANTIN - V. RÉGNIER Coût du travail et allègements de charges : une estimation au niveau établissement de 1996 à 2008

G2012/13 X. D'HAULTFOEUILLE - P. FÉVRIER - L. WILNER Demand Estimation in the Presence of Revenue Management

G2012/14 D. BLANCHET - S. LE MINEZ Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms

G2013/01-F1301 T. DERDYON - A. MONTAUT - P-A PIONNIER Utilisation rétrospective de l'enquête Emploi à une fréquence mensuelle: apport d'une modélisation espace-état

G2013/02-F1302 C. TREVIEN Habiter en HLM: quel avantage monétaire et quel impact sur les conditions de logement ?

G2013/03 A. POISSONNIER Temporal disaggregation of stock variables - The Chow-Lin method extended to dynamic models

G2013/04 P. GIVORD - C. MARBOT Does the cost of child care affect female labor market participation? An evaluation of a French reform of childcare subsidies

G2013/05 G. LAME - M. LEQUIEN - P.-A. PIONNIER Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance

G2013/06 C. BELLEGO - V. DORTET-BERNADET La participation aux pôles de compétitivité : quelle incidence sur les dépenses de R&D et l'activité des PME et ETI ?

G2013/07 P.-Y. CABANNES - A. MONTAUT - P.-A. PIONNIER Évaluer la productivité globale des facteurs en France : l'apport d'une mesure de la qualité du

G2013/08 R. AEBERHARDT - C. MARBOT Evolution of Instability on the French Labour Market During the Last Thirty Years

G2013/09 J-B. BERNARD - G. CLÉAUD Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy

G2013/10 G. LAME Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?

G2013/11 P. CHONÉ - F. EVAIN - L. WILNER - E. YILMAZ Introducing activity-based payment in the hospital industry : Evidence from French data

G2013/12 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY Natural Disasters: Exposure and Underinsurance

G2013/13 P.-Y. CABANNES - V. COTTET - Y. DUBOIS - C. LELARGE - M. SICSIC French Firms in the Face of the 2008/2009 Crisis

G2013/14 A. POISSONNIER - D. ROY Households Satellite Account for France in 2010. Methodological issues on the assessment of domestic production

G2013/15 G. CLÉAUD - M. LEMOINE - P.-A. PIONNIER Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?

G2013/16 N. CECI-RENAUD - P. CHARNOZ - M. GAINI Évolution de la volatilité des revenus salariaux du secteur privé en France depuis 1968

G2014/01 M. BACHELET - A. LEDUC - A. MARINO Les biographies du modèle Destinie II: rebasage et projection

G2014/02 B. GARBINTI L'achat de la résidence principale et la création d'entreprises sont-ils favorisés par les donations et héritages ?

G2014/03 N. CECI-RENAUD - P. CHARNOZ - M. GAINI Évolution de la volatilité des revenus salariaux du secteur privé en France depuis 1968

G2014/04 P. AUBERT Modalités d'application des réformes des retraites et prévisibilité du montant de pension

G2014/05 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - A. KATOSSKY The Impact of Hazardous Industrial Facilities on Housing Prices: A Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Hedonic Price Models

G2014/06 J.-M. DAUSSIN-BENICHOU - A. MAUROUX Turning the heat up. How sensitive are households to fiscal incentives on energy efficiency investments?

G2014/07 C. LABONNE - G. LAMÉ Credit Growth and Capital Requirements: Binding or Not?

G2014/08 C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY et C. TREVIEN The Impact of Housing Subsidies on the Rental Sector: the French Example

G2014/09 M. LEQUIEN et A. MONTAUT Croissance potentielle en France et en zone euro : un tour d'horizon des méthodes d'estimation

G2014/10 B. GARBINTI - P. LAMARCHE Les hauts revenus épargnent-ils davantage ?

G2014/11 D. AUDENAERT - J. BARDAJI - R. LARDEUX - M. ORAND - M. SICSIC Wage Resilience in France since the Great Recession

G2014/12 F. ARNAUD - J. BOUSSARD - A. POISSONNIER - H. SOUAL Computing additive contributions to growth and other issues for chain-linked quarterly aggregates

G2014/13 H. FRAISSE - F. KRAMARZ - C. PROST Labor Disputes and Job Flows
G2014/14 P. GIVORD - C. GRISLAIN-LETRÉMY - H. NAEGELE
How does fuel taxation impact new car purchases? An evaluation using French consumer-level dataset

G2014/15 P. AUBERT - S. RABATÉ
Durée passée en carrière et durée de vie en retraite : quel partage des gains d'espérance de vie ?

G2015/01 A. POISSONNIER
The walking dead Euler equation
Addressing a challenge to monetary policy models

G2015/02 Y. DUBOIS - A. MARINO
Indicateurs de rendement du système de retraite français

G2015/03 T. MAYER - C. TREVIEN
The impacts of Urban Public Transportation: Evidence from the Paris Region

G2015/04 S.T. LY - A. RIEGERT
Measuring Social Environment Mobility

G2015/05 M. A. BEN HALIMA - V. HYAFIL-SOLELHAC
M. KOUBI - C. REGAERT
Quel est l'impact du système d'indemnisation maladie sur la durée des arrêts de travail pour maladie ?

G2015/06 Y. DUBOIS - A. MARINO
Disparités de rendement du système de retraite dans le secteur privé : approches intergénérationnelle et intragénérationnelle

G2015/07 B. CAMPAGNE - V. ALHENC-GELAS - J.-B. BERNARD
No evidence of financial accelerator in France

G2015/08 Q. LAFFÉTER - M. PAK
Élasticités des recettes fiscales au cycle économique : étude de trois impôts sur la période 1979-2013 en France

G2015/09 J.-M. DAUSSIN-BENICHOU, S. IDMACHICHE, A. LEDUC et E. POULIQUEN
Les déterminants de l'attractivité de la fonction publique de l'État

G2015/10 P. AUBERT
La modulation du montant de pension selon la durée de carrière et l'âge de la retraite : quelles disparités entre assurés ?

G2015/11 V. DORTET-BERNADET - M. SICSIC
Effet des aides publiques sur l'emploi en R&D dans les petites entreprises

G2015/12 S. GEORGES-KOT
Annual and lifetime incidence of the value-added tax in France

G2015/13 M. POULHÈS
Are Enterprise Zones Benefits Capitalized into Commercial Property Values? The French Case

G2015/14 J.-B. BERNARD - Q. LAFFÉTER
Effet de l'activité et des prix sur le revenu salarial des différentes catégories socioprofessionnelles

G2015/15 C. GEAY - M. KOUBI - G de LAGASNERIE
Projections des dépenses de soins de ville, construction d'un module pour Destinie

G2015/16 J. BARDAJI - J.-C. BRICONGNE - B. CAMPAGNE - G. GAULIER
Compared performances of French companies on the domestic and foreign markets

G2015/17 C. BELLÉGO - R. DE NIJS
The redistributive effect of online piracy on the box office performance of American movies in foreign markets

G2015/18 J.-B. BERNARD - L. BERTHET
French households financial wealth: which changes in 20 years?

G2015/19 M. POULHÈS
Fenêtre sur Cour ou Chambre avec Vue ?
Les prix hédoniques de l'immobilier parisien

G2016/01 B. GARBINTI - S. GEORGES-KOT
Time to smell the roses? Risk aversion, the timing of inheritance receipt, and retirement

G2016/02 P. CHARNOZ - C. LELARGE - C. TREVIEN
Communication Costs and the Internal Organization of Multi-Plant Businesses: Evidence from the Impact of the French High-Speed Rail

G2016/03 C. BONNET - B. GARBINTI - A. SOLAZ
Gender Inequality after Divorce: The Flip Side of Marital Specialization - Evidence from a French Administrative Database

G2016/04 D. BLANCHET - E. CAROLI - C. PROST - M. ROGER
Health capacity to work at older ages in France

G2016/05 B. CAMPAGNE - A. POISSONNIER
MELEZE: A DSGE model for France within the Euro Area

G2016/06 B. CAMPAGNE - A. POISSONNIER
Laffer curves and fiscal multipliers: lessons from Mélèze model

G2016/07 B. CAMPAGNE - A. POISSONNIER
Structural reforms in DSGE models: a case for sensitivity analyses

G2016/08 Y. DUBOIS et M. KOUBI
Relèvement de l'âge de départ à la retraite : quel impact sur l'activité des séniors de la réforme des retraites de 2010 ?

G2016/09 A. NAOUAS - M. ORAND - I. SLIMANI HOUTI
Les entreprises employant des salariés au Smic : quelles caractéristiques et quelle rentabilité ?

G2016/10 T. BLANCHET - Y. DUBOIS - A. MARINO - M. ROGER
Patrimoine privé et retraite en France

G2016/11 M. PAK - A. POISSONNIER
Accounting for technology, trade and final consumption in employment: an Input-Output decomposition

G2017/01 D. FOUGÈRE - E. GAUTIER - S. ROUX
Understanding Wage Floor Setting in Industry-Level Agreements: Evidence from France

G2017/02 Y. DUBOIS - M. KOUBI
Règles d'indexation des pensions et sensibilité des dépenses de retraites à la croissance économique et aux chocs démographiques

G2017/03 A. CAZENAVE-LACROUTZ - F. GODET
L'espérance de vie en retraite sans incapacité sévère des générations nées entre 1960 et 1990 : une projection à partir du modèle Destinie

G2017/04 J. BARDAJI - B. CAMPAGNE - M.-B. KHDER - Q. LAFFÉTER - O. SIMON (Insee)
A.-S. DUFERNEZ - C. ELEZAAR - P. LEBLANC - E. MASSON - H. PARTOUCHE (DG-Trésor)
Le modèle macroéconométrique Mésange : réestimation et nouveautés

G2017/05 J. BOUSSARD - B. CAMPAGNE
Fiscal Policy Coordination in a Monetary Union at the Zero-Lower-Bound

G2017/06 A. CAZENAVE-LACROUTZ - A. GODZINSKI
Effects of the one-day waiting period for sick leave on health-related absences in the French central civil service

G2017/07 P. CHARNOZ - M. ORAND
Qualification, progrès technique et marchés du travail locaux en France, 1990-2011

G2017/08 K. MILIN
Modélisation de l'inflation en France par une approche macrosectorielle

G2017/09 C.-M. CHEVALIER - R. LARDEUX
Homeownership and labor market outcomes: disentangling externality and composition effects

G2017/10 P. BEAUMONT
Time is Money: Cash-Flow Risk and Export Market Behavior

G2018/01 S. ROUX - F. SAVIGNAC
SMEs' financing: Divergence across Euro area countries?

G2018/02 C.-M. CHEVALIER - A. LUCIANI
Computerization, labor productivity and employment: impacts across industries vary with technological level