Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules & impacts of ecological restoration schedule : input-output/system dynamics modeling

Mateo Cordier, Takuro Uehara

► To cite this version:

Mateo Cordier, Takuro Uehara. Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules & impacts of ecological restoration schedule : input-output/system dynamics modeling. "Ecological Economics and Socio-ecological Movements: Science, policy and challenges to global processes in a troubled world", The International Society for Ecological Economics; Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana; Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Sep 2018, Puebla (Mexico), Mexico. http://hal-04566462

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<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules & impacts of ecological restoration schedule : input-output/system dynamics modeling

Mateo Cordier, Takuro Uehara

► To cite this version:

Mateo Cordier, Takuro Uehara. Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules & impacts of ecological restoration schedule: input-output/system dynamics modeling. "Ecological Economics and Socio-ecological Movements: Science, policy and challenges to global processes in a troubled world", The International Society for Ecological Economics; Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana; Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Sep 2018, Puebla (Mexico), Mexico. http://04566462

HAL Id: hal-04566462

https://hal.science/hal-04566462v1

Submitted on 2 May 2024

**HAL** is a multi-disciplinary open access
archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-
entific research documents, whether they are pub-
lished or not. The documents may come from
teaching and research institutions in France or
abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est
destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents
scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non,
émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de
recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires
publics ou privés.

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules
& impacts of ecological restoration schedule :
input-output/system dynamics modeling

**Mateo Cordier**

Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

**Takuro Uehara**

Ritsumeikan University

September 2018
Regional and sectorial impacts of cost allocation rules
& impacts of ecological restoration schedule :
input-output/system dynamics modeling

**Mateo Cordier**

Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

**Takuro Uehara**

Ritsumeikan University

September 2018
Method and study area
Method and study area
# Study Area: The Seine Estuary (France)

* Nursery areas for sole have **decreased due to harbour infrastructure expansion**

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

Picture: Cuvilliez et al. (2008)

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

Evolution of nursery areas of the internal part of the Seine estuary.

Source of data: Rochette et al. (2010)
# Study Area: The Seine Estuary (France)

* Nursery areas for sole have **decreased due to harbour infrastructure expansion**

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

Picture: Cuvilliez et al. (2008)

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

Evolution of nursery areas of the internal part of the Seine estuary.

Source of data: Rochette et al. (2010)
# Conceptual scheme of the IO/SD model

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>
# Conceptual scheme of the IO/SD model

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>
The SD ecological-economic model

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>
The SD ecological-economic model

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>
The IO sub-model

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Buying Sector<br>(j = 1, ..., n; n = 37)</th><th>Final Demand<br>(k = 1, ..., f; f = 8)</th><th>Total Output</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Selling Sector<br>(i = 1, ..., n; n = 37)</th><td><b>X</b><br>x<sub>ij</sub></td><td><b>F</b><br>f<sub>ik</sub></td><td><b>X</b><br>x<sub>i</sub></td></tr><tr><th>Imports</th><td><b>mi'</b><br>mi<sub>j</sub></td><td><b>mf'</b><br>mf<sub>k</sub></td><td><b>m</b></td></tr><tr><th>Value Added<br>(l = 1, ..., p; p = 3)</th><td><b>V</b><br>ν<sub>lj</sub></td><td></td><td><b>V</b><br>ν<sub>l</sub></td></tr><tr><th>Total Outlays</th><td><b>x'</b><br>x<sub>j</sub></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>
The IO sub-model

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Buying Sector<br>(j = 1, ..., n; n = 37)</th><th>Final Demand<br>(k = 1, ..., f; f = 8)</th><th>Total Output</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Selling Sector<br>(i = 1, ..., n; n = 37)</th><td><b>X</b><br>x<sub>ij</sub></td><td><b>F</b><br>f<sub>ik</sub></td><td><b>X</b><br>x<sub>i</sub></td></tr><tr><th>Imports</th><td><b>mi'</b><br>mi<sub>j</sub></td><td><b>mf'</b><br>mf<sub>k</sub></td><td><b>m</b></td></tr><tr><th>Value Added<br>(l = 1, ..., p; p = 3)</th><td><b>V</b><br>ν<sub>lj</sub></td><td></td><td><b>V</b><br>ν<sub>l</sub></td></tr><tr><th>Total Outlays</th><td><b>x'</b><br>x<sub>j</sub></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>
Dynamization of the IO sub-model

$$x_t = [(I - \hat{\beta}_t A)^{-1} \hat{\beta}_t] f_t \quad \forall t = 1, \dots, T$$

where $\hat{\beta}_t$ is a diagonal matrix with the elements, $\hat{\beta}_{i,t}$, computed as:

$$\hat{\beta}_{i,t} = \exp \left[ \alpha_0 + \alpha_z \log \left( \frac{x_{i,t-1}}{z_{i,t-1}} \right) + \alpha_g g_{i,t} \right] \quad \forall i = 1, \dots, n$$
Dynamization of the IO sub-model

$$x_t = [(I - \hat{\beta}_t A)^{-1} \hat{\beta}_t] f_t \quad \forall t = 1, \dots, T$$

where $\hat{\beta}_t$ is a diagonal matrix with the elements, $\hat{\beta}_{i,t}$, computed as:

$$\hat{\beta}_{i,t} = \exp \left[ \alpha_0 + \alpha_z \log \left( \frac{x_{i,t-1}}{z_{i,t-1}} \right) + \alpha_g g_{i,t} \right] \quad \forall i = 1, \dots, n$$
Scenarios simulated
Scenarios simulated
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th>Scenarios</th><th>Policy impact<br>Assessment</th></tr><tr><th></th><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</th><td>No restoration</td></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>scenarios</th><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th>Scenarios</th><th>Policy impact<br>Assessment</th></tr><tr><th></th><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</th><td>No restoration</td></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>scenarios</th><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="2">Policy impact<br>Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="2">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration<br>scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing<br>with cooperation and<br>grandfathering mechanisms</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="2">Policy impact Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="2">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing with cooperation mechanism<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing with cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Cost allocation rules

The cost allocation rules are, *inter alia*, based on the **shared environmental responsibility principle***

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

<footnote>* Gallego and Lenzen (2005), Lenzen et al. (2007), Lenzen and Murray (2010), Cordier et al., (2018)</footnote>
Cost allocation rules

The cost allocation rules are, *inter alia*, based on the **shared environmental responsibility principle***

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

<footnote>* Gallego and Lenzen (2005), Lenzen et al. (2007), Lenzen and Murray (2010), Cordier et al., (2018)</footnote>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="2">Policy impact Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="2">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing with cooperation mechanism<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing with cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="2">Policy impact Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="2">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing with cooperation mechanism<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing with cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="3">Policy impact<br>Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th><th>Restoration<br>responsibility</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="3">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration<br>scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 6: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 7: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 8: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 9: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 10: Three stage sharing</td><td>Stage responsibility<br>calculation:<br>1. Value added/Net<br>output<br>2. Gross operating<br>surplus<br>(GOS)/output<br>3. Return on<br>investment (ROI)</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="3">Policy impact<br>Assessment</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th><th>Restoration<br>responsibility</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="3">No restoration</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration<br>scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 6: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 7: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 8: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 9: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 10: Three stage sharing</td><td>Stage responsibility<br>calculation:<br>1. Value added/Net<br>output<br>2. Gross operating<br>surplus<br>(GOS)/output<br>3. Return on<br>investment (ROI)</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="3">Policy impact Assessment</th><th rowspan="2">Policy sensitivity analysis</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th><th>Restoration responsibility</th><th>Water quality</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="3">No restoration</td><td>0.77</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing with cooperation mechanism<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing with cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms</td><td>Stage responsibility calculation:<br>1. Value added/Net output<br>2. Gross operating surplus (GOS)/output<br>3. Return on investment (ROI)</td><td>[0.50, 1.00]</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* Exploring the dynamic behaviors of the model

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Scenarios</th><th colspan="3">Policy impact<br>Assessment</th><th rowspan="2">Policy<br>sensitivity<br>analysis</th></tr><tr><th>Restoration<br>schedule</th><th>Cost allocation</th><th>Restoration<br>responsibility</th><th>Water<br>quality</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Business as<br>usual (BAU)</td><td colspan="3">No restoration</td><td>0.77</td></tr><tr><td>Restoration<br>scenarios</td><td>1. Increasing<br>2. Constant<br>3. Decreasing</td><td>Rule 1: No sharing<br>Rule 2: Two stage sharing<br>Rule 3: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 4: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 5: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 6: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 7: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 8: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 9: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 10: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 11: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 12: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 13: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 14: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 15: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 16: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 17: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 18: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 19: Three stage sharing<br>Rule 20: Three stage sharing</td><td>Stage responsibility<br>calculation:<br>1. Value added/Net<br>output<br>2. Gross operating<br>surplus<br>(GOS)/output<br>3. Return on<br>investment (ROI)</td><td>[0.50, 1.00]</td></tr></tbody></table>
# Scenario development

* **Inputs** entered to feed the IO/SD model and **outputs** delivered by the model:

## Model inputs

**Economic inputs entered in the model:**

1. Exogenous annual economic growth (%)

2. Investments required for the restoration of nurseries (M€/year)

**Ecological inputs entered in the model:**

1. Nursery area restored (km²/year)

2. Exogenous water quality (%)

## Model outputs (outcome indicators)

**Economic outcome indicators:**

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (M€)

2. Disposable income (M€)

3. Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) (M€)

**Ecological outcome indicators:**

1. Sole caught originating from the internal area of the estuary (tons)

2. Nursery areas

- Km²

- Total Economic Value (TEV, M€) excluding food and nursery services
# Scenario development

* **Inputs** entered to feed the IO/SD model and **outputs** delivered by the model:

## Model inputs

**Economic inputs entered in the model:**

1. Exogenous annual economic growth (%)

2. Investments required for the restoration of nurseries (M€/year)

**Ecological inputs entered in the model:**

1. Nursery area restored (km²/year)

2. Exogenous water quality (%)

## Model outputs (outcome indicators)

**Economic outcome indicators:**

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (M€)

2. Disposable income (M€)

3. Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) (M€)

**Ecological outcome indicators:**

1. Sole caught originating from the internal area of the estuary (tons)

2. Nursery areas
- Km²
- Total Economic Value (TEV, M€) excluding food and nursery services
# Results
# Results
Regional impacts of restoration schedules

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Sole caught in the
internal area (tons)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>
Regional impacts of restoration schedules

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Sole caught in the
internal area (tons)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>
# Relationships between key outcome indicators

* Graphs display **cumulated values** summed over the 2012-2032 period.

* They show **trade-offs** between economic indicators and ecological indicators

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated disposable income (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated disposable income (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated TEV excl. Food & nursery (million €)</figcaption></figure>
# Relationships between key outcome indicators

* Graphs display **cumulated values** summed over the 2012-2032 period.

* They show **trade-offs** between economic indicators and ecological indicators

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated GDP (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated disposable income (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated disposable income (million €)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>Cumulated TEV excl. Food & nursery (million €)</figcaption></figure>
# Sectorial impacts of restoration schedules

## Rule 1: Transport (land, air, water) and harbors

(Stage responsibility calculated with VA)

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

* GOS (gross operating surplus) is a measure of profit
# Sectorial impacts of restoration schedules

## Rule 1: Transport (land, air, water) and harbors

(Stage responsibility calculated with VA)

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

* GOS (gross operating surplus) is a measure of profit
# Sectorial impacts of restoration schedules

* The **increasing restoration schedule** minimizes profit losses **for other sectors**

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

Sectors with higher income elasticity suffer greater profit losses
due to income slow down
# Sectorial impacts of restoration schedules

* The **increasing restoration schedule** minimizes profit losses **for other sectors**

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

Sectors with higher income elasticity suffer greater profit losses
due to income slow down
# Sectorial impact of cost allocation rules

* **Rules 4 and 5** (they overlap) minimize profit losses **for the transport & harbors sector** thanks to cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms.

* Would economic sectors disagree on such mechanisms, **rule 3** provides a second best option for profit loss minimization.

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

**Transport (land, air, water) and harbors**
 Constant restoration schedule, stage responsibility calculated with VA (Rules 1-2) and GOS (Rules 3-5)
Sectorial impact of cost allocation rules

* Rules 4 and 5 (they overlap) minimize profit losses for the transport & harbors sector thanks to cooperation and grandfathering mechanisms.

* Would economic sectors disagree on such mechanisms, **rule 3** provides a second best option for profit loss minimization.

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

**Transport (land, air, water) and harbors**
 Constant restoration schedule, stage responsibility calculated with VA (Rules 1-2) and GOS (Rules 3-5)
Sectorial impacts of
stage responsibility calculations

* The **GOS ratio** helps to improve the **social legitimacy** of the shared environmental responsibility principle as it includes a sector bearing an important second stage responsibility : **manufacture of coke and refined petroleum**.

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>Rule 3 : Total surface nursery area restored for few selected sectors (km²)</figcaption></figure>
Sectorial impacts of
stage responsibility calculations

* The **GOS ratio** helps to improve the **social legitimacy** of the shared environmental responsibility principle as it includes a sector bearing an important second stage responsibility : **manufacture of coke and refined petroleum**.

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>Rule 3 : Total surface nursery area restored for few selected sectors (km²)</figcaption></figure>
Impact of water quality & restoration
on Soles caught*

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /></figure>

* Soles caught refers to catch of soles originating from the internal part of the Seine estuary
Impact of water quality & restoration
on Soles caught*

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /></figure>

* Soles caught refers to catch of soles originating from the internal part of the Seine estuary
Impact of **water quality** vs. **restoration**
on **Soles caught***

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>
Impact of **water quality** vs. **restoration**
on **Soles caught***

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>
Conclusions
Conclusions
Limitations and future research

* Longer term trade-offs could change our conclusions.

* Reflecting ecological thresholds could change our conclusions.

* It is important to further delve into the impact of water quality due to contaminants such as **endocrine disruptors**:

* **Alkylphenols:** used in detergents in textile industry, plastics, pesticides, paper production, water paintings.

* **Organotin:** compounds of biocide paintings such as TBT on ships but production is forbidden nowadays. However, historical contamination remains in sediments.

* **Phthalates (DBP, DiBP, DEP, DEHP, MEHP):** used in plastics, cosmetics, textiles, and insecticides.

* **PolyBromoDiphénylEthers (PBDE):** used as flame retardant additive in textiles, furniture made of textile components, etc. Suspected to be an endocrine disruptor.

* **PCB (PolyChloroBiphényles):** not used anymore, have been forbidden a long time ago but historical contamination remains in sediments.

* **PAHs (Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons):** result from incomplete combustion of organic matter (wood-burning and combustion of other biofuels, industrial processes and the extraction and use of fossil fuels, wildfires, tobacco smoking, etc.)

→ involves **sectoral** and **spatial** (i.e., within and outside the region) responsibilities.
Limitations and future research

* Longer term trade-offs could change our conclusions.

* Reflecting ecological thresholds could change our conclusions.

* It is important to further delve into the impact of water quality due to contaminants such as **endocrine disruptors**:

* **Alkylphenols:** used in detergents in textile industry, plastics, pesticides, paper production, water paintings.

* **Organotin:** compounds of biocide paintings such as TBT on ships but production is forbidden nowadays. However, historical contamination remains in sediments.

* **Phthalates (DBP, DiBP, DEP, DEHP, MEHP):** used in plastics, cosmetics, textiles, and insecticides.

* **PolyBromoDiphénylEthers (PBDE):** used as flame retardant additive in textiles, furniture made of textile components, etc. Suspected to be an endocrine disruptor.

* **PCB (PolyChloroBiphényles):** not used anymore, have been forbidden a long time ago but historical contamination remains in sediments.

* **PAHs (Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons):** result from incomplete combustion of organic matter (wood-burning and combustion of other biofuels, industrial processes and the extraction and use of fossil fuels, wildfires, tobacco smoking, etc.)

→ involves **sectoral** and **spatial** (i.e., within and outside the region) responsibilities.
<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

ELSEVIER

Ecological Economics 140 (2017) 46–57

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

Methodological and Ideological Options

An Input-output Economic Model Integrated Within a System Dynamics

Ecological Model: Feedback Loop Methodology Applied to Fish

Nursery Restoration

Mateo Cordier a,b,*, Takuro Uehara c, Jeffrey Weih e, Bertrand Hamaide d

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

CrossMark

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

sustainability 2018, 10, 1765

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Article

# Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis

Takuro Uehara 1,*, ID, Mateo Cordier 2,3 and Bertrand Hamaide 4

Economic
Systems Research

Journal of the
International Input-Output Association

The shared environmental responsibility principle: new developments applied to the case of marine ecosystems

Mateo Cordier, Thomas Poitelon, Walter Hecq (2018, under press)
<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

ELSEVIER

Ecological Economics 140 (2017) 46-57

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

Methodological and Ideological Options

An Input-output Economic Model Integrated Within a System Dynamics

Ecological Model: Feedback Loop Methodology Applied to Fish

Nursery Restoration

Mateo Cordier a,b,*, Takuro Uehara c, Jeffrey Weih e, Bertrand Hamaide d

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

CrossMark

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

sustainability 2018, 10, 1765

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Article

# Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis

Takuro Uehara 1,*, ID, Mateo Cordier 2,3 and Bertrand Hamaide 4

Economic
Systems Research

Journal of the
International Input-Output Association

The shared environmental responsibility principle: new developments applied to the case of marine ecosystems

Mateo Cordier, Thomas Poitelon, Walter Hecq (2018, under press)
<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>
# Appendix
# Appendix
Restoration schedule

* 3 schedules distributing annual restoration of nursery areas through time have been simulated:

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /><figcaption>(a) Increasing</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /><figcaption>(b) Constant</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /><figcaption>(c) Decreasing</figcaption></figure>
Restoration schedule

* 3 schedules distributing annual restoration of nursery areas through time have been simulated:

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /><figcaption>(a) Increasing</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /><figcaption>(b) Constant</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /><figcaption>(c) Decreasing</figcaption></figure>
# Water quality

* Juvenile density in the Seine estuary is **23%** lower today compared to 1850 because of water quality degradation (Rochette et al., 2010).

* We assume that water quality improvement can recover the juvenile abundance by **23%** maximum as follows:

$$Abundance\ Multiplier_i = Water\ Quality\ Index * Abundance\ Multiplier_i^{max}$$

* With that equation, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in which we assume juvenile abundance to be proportional to water quality.

* The current Water Quality Index (**BAU scenario**) = 0.77 (= 100%–23%).

* In policy sensitivity analysis, Water Quality Index varies between [0.50, 1.00].

* The Water Quality Index is exogenously given as this variable is determined out of the system boundary.
# Water quality

* Juvenile density in the Seine estuary is **23%** lower today compared to 1850 because of water quality degradation (Rochette et al., 2010).

* We assume that water quality improvement can recover the juvenile abundance by **23%** maximum as follows:

$$Abundance\ Multiplier_i = Water\ Quality\ Index * Abundance\ Multiplier_i^{max}$$

* With that equation, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in which we assume juvenile abundance to be proportional to water quality.

* The current Water Quality Index (**BAU scenario**) = 0.77 (= 100%–23%).

* In policy sensitivity analysis, Water Quality Index varies between [0.50, 1.00].

* The Water Quality Index is exogenously given as this variable is determined out of the system boundary.