Turkey, respondents preferred a carbon tax with a progressive cost distribution over one distributed regressively (Gevrek and Uyduranoglu 2015). Furthermore, concerns about distributional fairness affect voting behavior. Along with the perception of ineffectiveness, for instance, distributional and competitive concerns were primary determinants of voting behavior in a large ballot on energy taxes in Switzerland in 2015 (Carattini et al. 2017). In fact, evidence suggests citizens are at least as concerned about the distributional impacts of climate policies as they are about their effectiveness (Maestre-André et al. 2021; Bergquist et al. 2022; Dietz and Atkinson 2010).

People often assume that climate policies are regressive. A survey of approximately 650 university students conducted in Bogotá, Colombia, in 2020 (Blackman and Hoffmann 2022) showed that respondents tend to assume lower-income citizens lose out from environmental regulation. Without providing any specifics about the regulation under consideration, the survey asked how the costs and benefits of environmental regulation are distributed across rich and poor citizens. In response, the median participant reported that while the rich and poor benefit from environmental improvements approximately equally, the poor disproportionately pay the costs of environmental regulation.

Although inequality concerns tend to dominate, many do not support climate policies because they perceive the costs to be unaffordable for them personally (Bergquist et al. 2022; Brannlund and Persson 2012; Dechezleprêtre et al. 2022). Linking climate policies with economic and social policies can increase citizens' support for them by ameliorating both their distributional and personal budget concerns (Bergquist, Mildenberger, and Stokes 2020). Carbon taxes implemented through higher electricity bills, for instance, are more widely accepted when support for low-income households is included (Hammerle, Best, and Crosby 2021).

## It Takes More than Words

Even as citizens express strong approval of climate change policies, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Are survey respondents overstating their support? More likely, barriers stand in the way of translating it into policy implementation.

## Institutional Context

Institutions have several key strategies to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of climate policies. First, aligning short-term political cycles with the long-term benefits of climate policies can be achieved through
comprehensive long-term planning, and the establishment of laws that facilitate future administrations to continue climate policies (Mosqueira and Alessandro 2023).

Second, enhancing voters' confidence in climate policies can be accomplished by providing clear, measurable, and quantifiable metrics to evaluate performance (Keefer and Scartascini 2022).

Third, the successful implementation of climate policies requires coordination across sectors and levels of government (Mosqueira and Alessandro 2023). By adopting a whole-of-government systems approach (see Chapter 9), countries can better organize and equip their public administrations to address complex, multi-sectoral problems (Mosqueira and Alessandro 2023).

## Competing Goals and Interests

Sectors with substantial greenhouse gas emissions account for a large share of Latin American and Caribbean economies. For instance, agriculture contributed nearly 7 percent of the region's total GDP in 2022, rising to more than 15 percent in Belize, Nicaragua, and Paraguay. The agricultural sector employs 15 percent of all workers across the region (IDB 2024).

Oil and gas production also plays a significant role in numerous Latin American and Caribbean economies, contributing to development, energy security, and economic growth. Many countries in the region have significant oil and gas deposits that remain largely untapped. For instance, Guyana is estimated to have over 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable oil and gas resources.<fnref n="3" />

Furthermore, several countries in the region have large state-owned oil and gas companies that make substantial contributions to gross domestic product. In 2021, for instance, the state-owned oil company in Suriname generated 24 percent of GDP, and in Bolivia the revenues of Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) accounted for 15 percent.<fnref n="4" /> In larger countries with higher GDP per capita, the share of GDP generated by state-owned oil and gas companies is smaller but not negligible.

Related to their contributions to GDP is the role of these companies as large employers. In 2021, including its subsidiary entities, Mexico's Pemex employed 123,842 people, while Brazil's Petrobras employed 45,532, Argentina's YPF employed 21,321, and Colombia's EcoPetrol employed 18,378.

<footnote n="3">³ https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62103.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴ Based on data from the National Oil Company Database, provided by the Natural Resource Governance Institute at https://www.nationaloilcompanydata.org/.</footnote>
State-owned oil and gas companies also generate a significant share of gov-
ernments' revenue by making transfers in the form of dividends, income tax,
proceeds of state profit or equity petroleum, and royalties (see Figure 14.3).
In 2021, across countries in the region with state-owned oil and gas compa-
nies, these transfers represented 8 percent on average of the governments'
revenues, with the amounts much higher in some smaller countries, such as
in Suriname, where it was 22 percent.<fnref n="5" />

<figure><img src="image_124.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 14.3.** Fossil Fuel Companies' Transfers to Government as a Share of General Revenues, by Country</figcaption></figure>

Source: IDB staff calculations, based on data from the National Oil Company Database, a project of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, https://www.nationaloilcompanydata.org/.

<footnote n="5">⁵ Ibid.</footnote>
The prospect of losing the employment, economic growth, and fiscal resources that these sectors provide could dampen citizens' and politicians' for climate change policies. Furthermore, the substantial share of government revenues derived from companies in these sectors creates a conflict of interest with climate change policies to limit greenhouse gases.

In addition, fossil fuel companies potentially lobby in favor of their own interests, and some fossil fuel companies and other firms with substantial greenhouse gas emissions use strategies like greenwashing and misinformation to undermine effective climate policies. Greenwashing misleads citizens and consumers by overstating climate change efforts and promoting false solutions that delay and distract from effective policies and actions.<fnref n="6" /> To counter greenwashing and misinformation, governments can require greater transparency and verification of climate claims (UN High Level Experts Group, n.d.).

Despite the interests of groups like the fossil fuel companies, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean can achieve climate action. The Mexican economy, for example, is highly dependent on oil revenues and fossil fuel production, with fossil fuels accounting for 89 percent of the country's energy supply (OECD 2013). Nevertheless, in 2012 Mexico passed the General Law of Climate Change (GLCC) and a carbon tax on domestic emissions of US$3.50 per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent (Ortega Díaz and Casamadrid Gutiérrez 2018). While the tax is modest, such initial achievements can build momentum and change perceptions. More generally, technological improvements, the adoption of new technologies, and the successful implementation of climate policies can create new interest groups that favor the continuation of existing climate policies or the implementation of new ones. The expansion of the number of homeowners with rooftop solar, for example, has created a large interest group that could support feed-in tariffs—that is, compensation for energy that is provided to the grid.

## Bridging Action and Societal Concerns

The conversion of public support for climate policies into implementation can be further hindered by competing priorities, highlighting the important role of communication. Political candidates tailor their platforms to the priorities of their base, and, once in public office, those with an eye to reelection will devote the greatest effort to the priorities of their constituents. In a 2023 survey that included samples from thirteen Latin American and Caribbean countries, climate change did not rank among the top five

<footnote n="6">⁶ https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/greenwashing.</footnote>
priorities for respondents. Crime was identified as a top five issue by nearly 64 percent and poverty and inequality by 49 percent, while only 26 percent cited climate change as one of the five biggest challenges currently faced by people in the participants' countries (Figure 14.4).

The competition between climate change and other priorities could be lessened by framing climate policies to emphasize the benefits they can provide related to those priorities, such as reducing traffic congestion, improving health, or reducing inequality (Bain et al. 2016; see also

<figure><img src="image_125.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 14.4.** Top Issues as Ranked by Survey Respondents</figcaption></figure>

Source: IDB staff calculations, based on data from EIB Climate Survey Edition VI: 2023–24, conducted in thirteen Latin American and the Caribbean countries in May and June of 2023, and available at https://www.eib.org/en/surveys/climate-survey/all-resources.
Chapter 8). In the United States, emphasizing reductions in pollution and improvements in health has been shown to increase support for mitigation policies (Mossler et al. 2017; Rinscheid, Pianta, and Weber 2020). Similarly, while regulations to improve the fuel economy of vehicles and the efficiency standards for appliances in the United States reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they have been popular because they also deliver energy savings for consumers and public health improvements (Karapin and Vogel 2023). An emphasis on the other social and economic priorities addressed by climate policies can also increase support for them (Feldman and Hart 2018).

Communicating with citizens about the implications of climate policies and engaging them in implementation can be pivotal to bolstering support for these policies. Efforts by Latin American governments to scale back fossil fuel subsidies, for instance, have frequently met with resistance. Notable examples include Ecuador's reductions to announced subsidy cuts in 2019⁷ and 2022⁸ in response to protests, Bolivia's and Haiti's aborted subsidy cuts in 2010⁹ and 2018,<fnref n="10" /> respectively, and Mexico's tumultuous "gasolinazo" protests in 2017.<fnref n="11" /> A general lack of information, diminished public confidence in the government, and concerns about adverse effects on the poor are among the barriers to public support for subsidy reform identified in a systematic review of country case studies around the world (Alleyne et al. 2013). Colombia's recent efforts to increase the price of diesel to align with international prices illustrates the importance of public opinion to the successful implementation of climate policies and the critical role that communication and engagement with citizens and policy adaptability play in public acceptance of climate action. In 2024, the country's first planned increase in diesel prices to phase out an existing fuel subsidy prompted opposition and massive protests that blocked several roads across the country.<fnref n="12" /> The government was able to quell these protests through effective negotiation and compromise, reducing the total price increase during that year and implementing it in two smaller increments, as well as agreeing to suspend further diesel price increases until

<footnote n="7">7 https://www.reuters.com/article/economia-ecuador-protesta-idESKBN1WJ031.</footnote>

<footnote n="8">8 https://www.dw.com/es/ecuador-ante-el-desaf%C3%ADo-del-subsidio-millonario-al-precio-del-combustible-agitar-a-los-sectores-sociales-o-al-fmi/a-62390774.</footnote>

<footnote n="9">9 https://www.rfi.fr/en/americas/20101231-police-hurt-clashes-bolivian-protesters-over-fuel-hikes.</footnote>

<footnote n="10">10 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/world/americas/haiti-protests-moise.html.</footnote>

<footnote n="11">11 https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-38538379.</footnote>

<footnote n="12">12 https://www.dw.com/es/protestan-con-bloqueos-ante-aumento-del-diésel-en-colo-mbia/a-70126444.</footnote>
there are structural changes to the problems discussed during the nego-
tiations held in September 2024.<fnref n="13" />

Studies provide guidance for the design of effective climate communi-
cation strategies. First, effective communications emphasize the short-term
local and personal risks from climate change and the benefits that will be con-
ferred by immediate action (van der Linden, Maibach, and Leiserowitz 2015).
The latter can include local benefits that materialize in the short term, such
as reductions in pollution and improvements in public health (see Chapter 8).
In some cases, strong demand for these benefits can drive climate policy. The
prospect of such benefits could provide strong motivation for climate action
in Latin America and the Caribbean, where pollution levels in many cities are
high. Second, effective messages consider local social norms and appeal to
intrinsically valued long-term environmental outcomes (van der Linden, Mai-
bach, and Leiserowitz 2015). Third, effective communication campaigns are
extensive and creative (ibid.). In particular, effective communication strategies
provide information on the key dimensions driving support for a climate pol-
icy: the expected costs for households, the distribution of costs and benefits
across subgroups, and how effectively the policy will contribute to meet-
ing climate goals. Fourth, effective communications begin early. Because of
behavioral biases, such as the confirmation bias,<fnref n="14" /> communication campaigns
may be more effective at preventing misperceptions than correcting them.

Engaging citizens goes beyond public information campaigns con-
ducted by governments. Giving citizens a voice lends credence to climate
actions, and their engagement can enhance the effectiveness of climate
policies by incorporating local knowledge.

Finally, environmental ministries have an essential role in citizen
engagement and communication strategies. They can coordinate such
efforts across ministries and levels of government, serve as a hub for citizen
engagement, and disseminate scientific information to maintain consistent
messaging over time.

Learning from Past Transitions

The climate transition will create new opportunities for businesses and
generate new employment, but it will also leave behind some individuals

<footnote n="13">13 https://www.valoraanalitik.com/precios-diesel-colombia-ciudades-septiembre-2024/ and https://mintransporte.gov.co/publicaciones/11814/gobierno-nacional-lle-go-a-acuerdo-con-las-bases-del-transporte-de-carga-y-pasajeros-para-poner-fin-a-las-manifestaciones/#:~:text=Se%20acordó%20modificar%20el%20alza,1%20de%20diciembre%20de%202024.</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴ Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.</footnote>
who struggle to adopt new technology or adapt to changing economic sectors. To garner and maintain support for climate policy, governments can pursue a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon economy (see Chapter 9).

Because climate action with a focus on a just and equitable transition is just beginning, little rigorous evidence exists on the impacts of just and equitable transition policies on citizens' support for climate action. We can, however, look to past transitions for policy lessons. Considerable discussion took place, for example, around trade adjustment assistance policies to compensate those who were left behind by globalization. With the exception of a small-scale program in Argentina focusing on firms rather than workers, however, no substantial attempts were made in Latin America and the Caribbean to help workers make the transition to a more global and integrated economy (Mesquita Moreira and Stein 2019). Without broad programs to assist workers, globalization increased inequality (Stiglitz 2018), leading to discontent and helping to fuel protectionism. A survey conducted in 2016, for example, demonstrated that a majority of Americans were in favor of more protectionist trade policies (Stiglitz 2018).

An important policy lesson for the climate transition from the globaliza-
tion transition is that, instead of narrowly focusing on compensating those
who are left behind by the climate transition, governments can rethink
inequality and social protection more broadly. With other transitions that
will disrupt labor markets, such as automation and artificial intelligence, now
occurring simultaneously, addressing inequality broadly is crucial to public
support for climate action, since general perceptions of unfairness or declines
in standards of living often manifest in public rejection of climate policies. The
protests in the region following efforts to scale back fossil fuel subsidies, for
instance, were primarily a reflection of broader apprehensions about policy
equity and governance rather than direct opposition to climate action.

The Future Depends on Citizen Support

Adapting to climate change and meeting a low-carbon economy is essential to economic growth, lives, and livelihoods in Latin America and the Caribbean. The task is not simple. It requires profound changes in all sectors of the economy and at all levels of governments, which will inevitably create winners and losers.

The good news is that citizens in the region tend to support climate action. Engaging and communicating with them will allow governments to pursue the policies necessary to address climate change while advancing other development goals.
<figure><img src="image_126.png" /></figure>
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