# Time and reason of exit of minors from a refugee centre: the role of family links

Manuela Stranges, François-Charles Wolff

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Manuela Stranges, François-Charles Wolff. Time and reason of exit of minors from a refugee centre: the role of family links. Genus: Journal of Population Sciences, 2025, 81 (1), pp.18. 10.1186/s41118-025-00255-2. hal-05242600

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**ORIGINAL ARTICLE**

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# Time and reason of exit of minors from a refugee centre: the role of family links

Manuela Stranges<fnref n="1" />* and François-Charles Wolff<fnref n="2" />

## Abstract

This paper investigates the duration of stay and reason of exit from a reception centre among young migrants arriving in Italy by sea, drawing on unique data from a centre for refugees and asylum seekers located in the southern region of Calabria, covering a 10-year period (1 January 2009–31 December 2018). The analysis focuses on the role of family status at entry in shaping both length of stay and exit pathways. Results show that minors entering with family members stay nearly five times longer than those arriving alone. Over half of the minors leave the centre voluntarily, while about a quarter are transferred elsewhere. Substantial variation by country of origin emerges for both the length of stay and the reason of exit. Multivariate analyses confirm that family status strongly influences both outcomes, even after controlling for individual-level covariates.

## Introduction

According to the most recent data (UNHCR, 2024a), at the end of 2023 there are 117.3 million people fleeing the world, around three times that of 20 years ago, escaping from persecution, war and conflicts in their own countries. Of these, 40 per cent are children below 18 years of age (UNHCR, 2024a).<fnref n="1" /> Some of these children, after having witnessed or experienced violence, persecution, war, and sometimes the death of relatives and friends in their home countries, will spend many years away from home, in many cases separated from their families. During their migration, minors are at the concrete risk of abuse, neglect, violence, exploitation, trafficking or military recruitment (REACH, 2017; UNHCR, 2024a) and are often survivors of traumatic and highly dangerous journeys (Foschino Barbaro & Sgaramella, 2021). Children who embark on these perilous journeys alone are often placed in overcrowded inflatable dinghies or poorly constructed wooden fishing boats that are ill-suited for bad weather. Some are confined to the ship's hold, while others are placed on iron barges, which pose significant navigational risks (Unicef, 2023).

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<footnote>*Correspondence:
manuela.stranges@unical.it</footnote>

<footnote n="1">¹ Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance "Giovanni Anania", University of Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 0°C, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende, CS, Italy</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² LEMNA, Nantes Université and TEPP, BP 52231 Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes Cedex, France</footnote>

<footnote n="1">¹ Using statistical modelling, UNHCR (2024a) has estimated that more than 2 million children were born as refugees between 2018 and 2023, equivalent to some 339,000 children per year. It must be noted that in 32 countries globally, the children of refugees born in the host country have the right to attain that country's and are therefore not included in these estimates. So these figures must be considered underestimations.</footnote>
Minors continue to face difficulties also after the arrival in the receiving country.<fnref n="2" /> In 2023, IOM interviewed 5029 refugees and migrants who arrived by sea in Greece, Italy, or Spain and by land in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo (IOM, 2024). In particular, 539 youth and adolescents (14–24 years old) travelling on the central Mediterranean route were interviewed in Italy. They described a journey marked by numerous challenges. A significant portion of respondents faced financial difficulties (64%) and hunger (63%). Many also reported robberies (59%), lack of shelter (42%), health issues (39%), and the loss of their documents (32%). Additionally, 13% experienced attacks by strangers during their travels. The survey also examined various protection concerns, revealing that many respondents had faced exploitation, such as working without pay (36%), being forced into labour (14%), or being held captive (31%). Physical violence was prevalent, affecting over half of the respondents (54%), and many reported kidnapping incidents and ransom demands. The majority of these incidents occurred in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria, just before crossing the Mediterranean and reaching Italy (IOM, 2024; UNHCR, 2024b).

Taking into account their vulnerability, the topic of minor migrants has become an increasingly important issue on the political agenda and academic debates.

The Mediterranean Sea is an important gateway for migrants to enter Europe in the pursuit of better living conditions. The number of children arrived in Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Spain in 2023 is 55,700 children, 67% of which (35,500) were unaccompanied or separated children.<fnref n="3" /> These numbers are considered significant underestimates (UNHCR, 2024b). Within these countries, Italy has always played a central role, especially because of its relative proximity to the coasts of North Africa, receiving over 58% of total inflows in the Mediterranean area in 2023 (157,651),<fnref n="4" /> of whom over 27 thousand were children (UNHCR, 2024b).<fnref n="5" /> As well-known, minor migrants, in particular unaccompanied children, are exposed to various risks in all the phase of the migration process (Unicef, 2023). Many researches have shown that accompanied and unaccompanied minors display relevant differences in terms of well-being and integration, with the latter who have been individualized as the most vulnerable of all immigrant and refugee groups (Bean et al., 2007a). For instance, Sarkadi et al. (2019) conducted a pilot study in a refugee centre in Sweden targeting accompanied and unaccompanied adolescents aged 14 to 18 years old in different stages of the asylum process.

<footnote n="2">² For a systematic literature review on unaccompanied foreign minors’ protective and risk factors for integration, see Fernández-Pacheco Alises et al. (2024).</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³ Separated children are children separated from both parents, or from their previous legal or customary primary caregiver, but not necessarily from other relatives. These may, therefore, include children accompanied by other adult family members. Unaccompanied children are children who have been separated from both parents and other relatives and are not being cared for by an adult who, by law or custom, is responsible for doing so (UNHCR, 2024b).</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴ The number of arrivals in Europe via the Mediterranean route was 270,180 in 2023, much higher than the value of the previous two years (160,070 in 2022 and 123,540 in 2021). Observing the last 20 years, the peak of arrivals was reached in 2015 when the total number of migrants crossing the Mediterranean reached 1,032,048 individuals, with a shift of the roots (UNHCR, 2024c). The share of migrants received by Italy via the sea had a temporary drop in 2015 when the Eastern Mediterranean has become secondary (15.1% of total inflows), while the Balkan root through Greece saw the major flows (84.3%). In 2016 there was a reprise, with 181,436 migrants arrived in Italy by sea (48.6%), while in 2017 the total landings amounted to 119,369 (64.5%). Another shift in the migrants roots was recorded in 2018 and 2019, where Italy received only 23,370 (16.5%) and 11,471 (9.3%), respectively (own calculations on data UNHCR, 2024c). From 2020 ahead, the number of migrants landing in Italy, and the share on total arrivals in the Mediterranean Sea, have progressively raised: 34,154 in 2020 (35.7%), 67,477 (54.6%) in 2021, 105,131 (65.7%) in 2022, 157,651 (58.4%) in 2023.</footnote>

<footnote n="5">⁵ For a recent overview of the phenomenon of unaccompanied minors in Italy, with particular attention to their specific characteristics, and a focus on the transition to adulthood, see Bichi (2024).</footnote>
They found that emotional distress is higher in the group of unaccompanied minors and those whose asylum application was pending, confirming previous evidence that associates asylum processes with increased anxiety. Their findings also suggest that asylum-seeking unaccompanied minors are a particularly vulnerable group with a large burden of mental health problems.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the time and the reasons of exit of minors from a reception centre, focusing on the role of family links. Our data have been collected in a reception centre (named Sant'Anna) located in Crotone, a city in the region of Calabria in the South of Italy, and cover a 10-year period from 1st of January 2009 to 31 st of December 2018. Due to its geographical position, Calabria is one of the most important points of entry to Italy and Europe for migrants, but at the same time the region is not really attractive as a place to settle. In this region, the proportion of foreigners over the entire population is 5.3% in 2023, lower than the national value (8.7%) (Istat, 2024). This low share may be attributed to the fact that Calabria is actually the poorest region of Italy, with the lowest GDP per capita in the country (17,182 euros in 2022 against 29,959 of Italy) (Istat, 2024), the highest incidence of relative poverty at household level (30% against 10.1% in Italy in 2022) and the highest total unemployment rate (15.9% against 8.1% in Italy in 2023) (Istat, 2024). Thus, the region is used as a gateway to Italy and Europe, but is not often considered as a good place to live because of its economic conditions and the very few employment opportunities that it offers to migrants.

The centre we examine accomodate hosts displaced persons who have entered Italy without any legal documentation and have applied to receive the status of refugee or some other form of international protection. In what follows, we will refer to the person in the centre as “migrants”, because it is not sure that their claim for refugee status will be accepted. After application, if their request is accepted, then they will acquire the status of refugees, otherwise they will receive notification of repatriation, thereby becoming formally illegal. Overall, our sample includes 37,569 entries of migrants to the centre over the period under consideration. Among these, 3249 were minors, corresponding to 8.6% of the total. Our analysis focuses more closely on the existing differences between unaccompanied minors and minors arriving with one or more family members, in terms of length of stay in the centre and reason of exit.

Results from our analysis show that the family status is very influential when explaining time spent in the centre and reason of exit. Although we are not able to provide any information about the integration and life outcomes of minors after they leave the centre, our paper can contribute to the literature by showing the distribution of minors by family type at the entry in the centre and how this is related to the time of staying and the reason of exit from the centre.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Sect. "Background" is devoted to the literature review and the discussion of main aggregate data about minor's inflows in Italy. In Sect. "Data and methods", we describe our data and the methods used in the analysis. In Sect. "Descriptive findings", we provide summary evidence on entries in the centre, characteristics of minors, pattern of family relationship and length of stay in the centre. Sect. "Empirical findings" is devoted to empirically explore the impact of family links on the time spent in the centre and the exit reason, relying on a competing risks framework. We dedicated a subsection to an in-depth analysis of voluntary departures,
which is the main reason for minors exiting the centre, and another subsection to some
additional estimates exploring related issues, particularly concerning different family
types and the existence of a size effect. Sect. "Conclusions", in which we discuss our find-
ings, the limitations of data and analysis, and the contribution of this paper to the litera-
ture, concludes the article.

**Background**

Literature review

Despite the growing interest in the topic of refugees and asylum seekers, our knowledge
of underage and young migrants still relies heavily on aggregate statistics from various
sources. Pritchard et al. (2019), in their scoping review of English and German aca-
demic articles about refugee children and youth's integration over a 20-year span, high-
light the lack of shared definitions of children and youth, along with a notable lack of
longitudinal and quantitative studies. Some studies based on individual-level data have
explored migrants' trajectories after arrival. Research has shown that migration plans
often evolve during the journey (Crawley et al., 2016; Düvell, 2014; Kuschminder et al.,
2015), and that the first country of arrival is frequently not the intended destination.
Many attempt to circumvent the reception system to avoid the constraints of the Dublin
Regulation<fnref n="6" /> (Stranges & Wolff, 2018; Valenta et al., 2015). These dynamics apply to both
adults and minors.

Focusing on family links, a recent study from Kohlenberger et al. (2022) provides
insights into the role of the nuclear family for refugees' social capital in Austria, with a
focus on gender-specific differences. Based on survey data from 548 Syrian and Afghan
refugees and 17 semi-structured group discussions, the study concentrates on how fam-
ily status and number of children relate to refugees' frequency of social contact within
their own communities and with the host society. The authors conclude that having chil-
dren can have an ambivalent effect on the social capital of female refugees, serving as
both a barrier to and facilitator of social contacts.

Whereas studies on adult migrants often examine personal characteristics, inten-
tions, and trajectories, especially in ethnographic and geographic research (Bloch
et al., 2011; Valenta et al., 2015), research on minors tends to concentrate on psycho-
logical and medical issues,<fnref n="7" /> such as mental health (Jakobsen, 2018; Jakobsen et al.,
2017), the stress related to migration or to separation from the family (see Thommes-
sen et al. 2013, about Italy; Bean et al., 2007b, about the Netherlands; Montgomery &
Foldspang, 2005, about Denmark), subjective well-being (Chase, 2013 about United
Kingdom), liminality (Allsopp et al., 2014; Kohli, 2011 on Britain). Some also cover
acculturation (Keles et al., 2018), school outcomes (Aleghfeli & Hunt, 2022), and legal
challenges like age assessment (Focardi et al., 2014). Increasing precarity among these
children—due to failures in national protection systems—remains a central concern
(Chacko & Price, 2020; Feijen, 2008).

<footnote n="6">⁶ Under the Dublin III Regulation (Reg. n. 604/2013), asylum seekers were required to apply in the first EU country in which they entered, placing disproportionate pressure on border states, such as Italy, and forcing migrants to remain in countries they did not necessarily choose, often without support networks. In 2024, the EU adopted the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, aimed at introducing greater solidarity and responsibility-sharing among Member States, though its provisions will only become operational in 2026.</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷ See Curtis et al. (2018) for a systematic review of the literature exploring what is known about children's own perspec-
tives on their experiences, with a focus on children and young people who have migrated to, or within, Europe.</footnote>
According to Ferrara et al. (2016), unaccompanied minors are particularly vulner-
able—socially, cognitively, and physically. Lacking the protection and care of adult
caregivers, they are more susceptible to abuse and neglect, face greater risk of having
their rights further curtailed and of being effectively "invisible" to the public health
system, the government, and the broader public.

In addition, a lot of youngsters disappear throughout their travels across Europe or when they reach their destination. The exact scale of this phenomenon, which currently affects unaccompanied children traveling through Europe, remains unclear. But over the past 10 years, the massive inflow of migrants along the EU's southern Mediterranean borders has made it possible to gather enough information to cause several European paediatric societies to express grave concern about the "invisible" status of unaccompanied minor migrants passing through the continent, particularly the disappearing child phenomenon (Ferrara et al., 2016).

Stathopoulou (2019) and Stathopoulou et al. (2019) offers a unique insight into the early reception phase in Greece shortly after the 2015 arrival peak. Their studies, based on surveys in six refugee camps and five shelters for unaccompanied minors, investigated the reasons for fleeing the homeland, the potential traumatic and discriminative experiences while fleeing, the self-assessment of health status, the evaluatio n of reception conditions by the respondents and the use of social media. Results show that well-being is strongly shaped by post-displacement stressors—such as poor living conditions, limited healthcare access, and future uncertainty. Similarly, De Montgomery et al. (2019) found that the length of stay in camps and the quality of conditions greatly influence refugee well-being, while Rapp et al. (2019) highlight that timing of discrimination—especially when experienced during migration or displace- ment in one’s home country—has a major impact on health outcomes. Notably, facing discrimination during migration or displacement in one’s home country significantly raises the likelihood of reporting poor health by nearly 50 percentage points.

Crea et al. (2017), examining 256 unaccompanied children in long-term foster care
in the USA between 2012 and 2015, studied how pre-migration, transit, and post-
placement risk factors influence placement stability. Experiences of violence in home
countries and behavioural issues while in care were linked to higher placement
change, while fear of return to home countries and trauma not related to migration
were associated with greater stability. Pritchard et al. (2019) also note how pre-
migration trauma and exposure to violence harm children’s well-being. A study on
307 unaccompanied refugee minors in Norway (Jensen et al., 2015) showed that 54%
reported high levels of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. Other longitudinal
studies (Almqvist & Brandell Forsberg, 1997; Oppedal & Idsoe, 2015; Vervliet et al.,
2014) confirm persistent mental health issues years after resettlement, underlining
the long-term impact of trauma.

Recently, Barn et al. (2021) focused on the analysis of the impact of the Covid-19
pandemic on the Italian and Greek reception systems and social interventions with
unaccompanied minors, identifying key changes in the main services which should
be guaranteed to minors (namely, hosting/housing, guardianship, foster care, fam-
ily/relatives reunification, school integration, language, job training for care leaving,
and preparation for leaving care after 18 years). The authors conclude that with the
suspension of key services and facilities, and with a practical break to the due process of immigration and asylum, social workers are facing a difficult challenge to prevent the worsening of minors' mental health and well-being.

Interestingly, nearly all of these papers focus only on unaccompanied minors—understandably the most fragile—while little attention is given to minors arriving with one or both parents or other relatives. An exception is the work from Sarkadi et al. (2019), in which both groups of accompanied and unaccompanied minors are analysed. Also Bronstein & Montgomery (2011) observe both groups, concluding that the presence of family members does not fully protect minors from the psychological stress of forced migration.<fnref n="8" />

In Italy, institutional data on both unaccompanied and accompanied minors are still incomplete and fragmented (Santagati & Barzaghi, 2021). Between December 2016 and May 2017, REACH, in partnership with UNICEF, conducted an assessment to profile and understand the experiences of children arriving in Italy and Greece (REACH, 2017). Nonetheless, there remains a lack of specific research into the actual paths taken by minors once they enter reception centres or other reception structure, an essential area of investigation, especially considering the growing number of children who go missing after arrival in Europe.

## Aggregate data on minors' inflows to Italy

Table 1 reports data on the number of migrants landed in Italy from 2011 to 2023, showing the share of minors (accompanied and not accompanied). Focusing on 2023, 157,651 migrants landed in Italy, 27,420 of whom were minors (17.39%). Of those, 8600 were accompanied (31.36% of total minors) and 18,820 were unaccompanied (68.64% of total minors). Data show that the share of minors on the total number of migrants has grown from 2011, remaining stable around 18–19% in the last 6 years. The most striking figure is related to the share of unaccompanied minors which has constantly been higher than the share of minors coming with family over the period 2011–2023, except for 2014 when they were both around 50%. After this temporary decrease, it rose again to 75% in 2015 and has stabilized at around 91% in 2016–2017 and just slightly lower in 2018 (82.7%). Then it remained stable around 75–76% between 2019 and 2021 and slightly decreased to in 2022 and 2023.

Calabria has played a central role in receiving migrants, both adults and minors. In 2022 it was the second receiving region in Italy after Sicily, getting 16% of total of unaccompanied minors landing in Italy (SAI, 2023). Between 2018 and 2020, there was a reduction in the number of unaccompanied minor landings in Sicily and Calabria, while there was a notable increase in the number of minors present in Friuli Venezia Giulia as a result of arrivals via the Balkan route. The situation changed again in 2021 when Sicily was confirmed as the area with the highest number of unaccompanied children (3466 minors, or 28.2% of the total), followed by Calabria (1507, or 12.3%) and Lombardy (1202, or 9.8%). When taken as a whole, these three regions accommodate over half of all minors in Italy by the end of the year.

<footnote n="8">⁸ The comparison within the two groups is always desirable because, as the unaccompanied minors are the most vulnerable (Bean et al., 2007a; Jensen et al., 2015; Oppedal & Idsoe, 2015; Vervliet et al., 2014), yet accompanied refugee minors also face substantial mental health risks.</footnote>
It is worth noting that these last figures refer only to minors officially registered and present in the centres, but it should be taken into account that there is a significant percentage of minors who abscond from these facilities and become formally untraceable. After arriving in Italy, in fact, many minors disappear from the centres and the other structures where they are placed. Most of them, often together with their families, attempt to reach their desired destination country, where they probably have relatives or contacts. Further evidence of this lack of intention to remain in Italy is provided by the very low percentage of minors who apply for asylum or any other form of protection relative to total inflows.<fnref n="9" /> According to the Dublin regulation, migrants are obliged to stay in the country where they first apply. As a result, the southern periphery of the European Union effectively serves as a buffer zone for the core EU countries (Skleparis, 2017; Triandafyllidou & Dimitriadi, 2014; Tudoroiu, 2017; Valenta et al., 2019; Zuparic-Iljic & Valenta, 2018). Although Italy is one of the main gates of entry to Europe because of its geographical position in the Mediterranean, the country may not be the desired final destination. Many migrants move on immediately after landing in Italy, very often even before applying for international protection (Stranges & Wolff, 2018).<fnref n="10" />

Yet, available official figures refer only to the share of unaccompanied minors who voluntarily leave the host structures, while no data are provided on those who exit the reception centres with their family or relatives. This lack of information highlights the importance of studying both unaccompanied and accompanied minors, especially since, in the latter case, the decision to leave is usually made at the family level. In this paper, we focus on the pattern of exit reasons from the centre according to the family situation (accompanied *versus* unaccompanied) of minors upon their arrival at the centre - an issue that, to our knowledge, has not been documented so far.

## Data and methods

We study the situation of minors using a unique data set collected from a centre for refugees and asylum seekers located in the South of Italy (the largest reception centre in Europe at the time of data collection). The Sant'Anna centre is a CDA-CARA.<fnref n="11" /> Based in an old military airport, it is 15 km away from Crotone, which is a port city located in the east of Calabria on the Ionian Sea. One of the main features of this centre is its strategic location. On the one hand, Crotone faces the West coast of Greece from where many migrants from Middle Eastern countries enter Italy by boat. On the other hand, Crotone is very close to Sicily the most important point of entry for African migrants, many of whom landing the Island of Lampedusa, off the Sicilian coast.

<footnote n="9">⁹ For instance, in 2014, the number of unaccompanied minors in Italy was 10,536. Among them, only 2557 (24.3%) applied for international protection, compared to 12.7% in 2013 (Italian Ministry of Work and Social Policies, 2014). More recently, the latest available data (Italian Ministry of Work and Social Policies, 2025) show that only 2030 unaccompanied minors out of 18,625 present in Italy in 2024 applied for protection (10.9%).</footnote>

<footnote n="10">¹⁰ According to data from Commissione Nazionale per il diritto di asilo (2016), the share of untraceable migrants in the centres was 10% in 2013 and 3% in 2014. In 2014, untraceable minors were estimated at 3707, equal to the 26% of the total number of arrivals in Italy in the year (present plus untraceable). This number grew to 6135 in 2015 and 6561 in 2016, equal to 34% and 27.4% of the total minors in the country, respectively (Save the Children, 2017). According to the Ministry of Labor there are over 5200 unaccompanied foreign minors (mostly males between 16 and 17 years old) who were untraceable at the end of 2018 in Italy, compared to almost 10,800 hosted in reception centres (IDOS, 2019). These estimations are based on the number of those who produced requests for international protection at the end of the year (meaning that they left after their asylum application, but before knowing the result). This is the reason why official statistics underestimate the phenomenon (Stranges & Wolff, 2018).</footnote>

<footnote n="11">¹¹ CDA means "reception centre", while CARA means "reception centre for refugees and asylum seekers". After some legal problems with the previous managements, in May 2017, the centre has been placed under a judicial management commission, which was still in charge at the end of 2018. In 2016, the Sant'Anna was transformed in a regional HUB, according to new Italian regulations.</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table 1** Arrivals of migrants by sea to Italy with indication of accompanied and unaccompanied minors (2011–2023). Source: (i) **Column 2**, UNHCR, 2024c; (ii) **Columns 3–5**: for years 2011–2016, Save the Children, 2017, on data from Ministry of Interior, Department of Public safety for data; for year 2017, ISMU, 2018 on data Ministry of Interior and UNHCR; for year 2018, UNHCR, 2019; for year 2019, UNHCR, 2020; for year 2020, UNHCR, 2021; for year 2021, UNHCR, 2022; for year 2022, UNHCR, 2023; for year 2023, UNHCR 2024b; (iii) **Columns 6–10** are authors’ calculations from data in the previous columns</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">(1)<br>Year</th><th rowspan="2">(2)<br>Number of total<br>migrants</th><th colspan="3">Minors (absolute values)</th><th colspan="3">Minors (distribution by status)</th><th colspan="3">Share of minors over the total number of migrants</th></tr><tr><th>(3)<br>Total</th><th>(4)<br>Accompanied</th><th>(5)<br>Unaccompanied</th><th>(6)<br>% of accompanied<br>over total minors</th><th>(7)<br>% of unaccompanied<br>over total minors</th><th>(8)<br>Total</th><th>(9)<br>Accompanied</th><th>(10)<br>Unaccompanied</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>62,692</td><td>4499</td><td>290</td><td>4209</td><td>6.45</td><td>93.55</td><td>7.18</td><td>0.46</td><td>6.71</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>13,267</td><td>2279</td><td>280</td><td>1999</td><td>12.29</td><td>87.71</td><td>17.18</td><td>2.11</td><td>15.07</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>42,925</td><td>8336</td><td>3104</td><td>5232</td><td>37.24</td><td>62.76</td><td>19.42</td><td>7.23</td><td>12.19</td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>170,100</td><td>26,122</td><td>13,096</td><td>13,026</td><td>50.13</td><td>49.87</td><td>15.36</td><td>7.70</td><td>7.66</td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>153,842</td><td>16,478</td><td>4118</td><td>12,360</td><td>24.99</td><td>75.01</td><td>10.71</td><td>2.68</td><td>8.03</td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>181,436</td><td>28,223</td><td>2377</td><td>25,846</td><td>8.42</td><td>91.58</td><td>15.56</td><td>1.31</td><td>14.25</td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>119,369</td><td>17,337</td><td>1558</td><td>15,779</td><td>8.99</td><td>91.01</td><td>14.52</td><td>1.31</td><td>13.22</td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>23,370</td><td>4278</td><td>742</td><td>3536</td><td>17.34</td><td>82.66</td><td>18.31</td><td>3.18</td><td>15.13</td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>11,471</td><td>2232</td><td>552</td><td>1680</td><td>24.73</td><td>75.27</td><td>19.46</td><td>4.81</td><td>14.65</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>34,154</td><td>6252</td><td>1565</td><td>4687</td><td>25.03</td><td>74.97</td><td>18.31</td><td>4.58</td><td>13.72</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>67,477</td><td>13,203</td><td>3150</td><td>10,053</td><td>23.86</td><td>76.14</td><td>19.57</td><td>4.67</td><td>14.90</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>105,131</td><td>20,222</td><td>6151</td><td>14,071</td><td>30.42</td><td>69.58</td><td>19.24</td><td>5.85</td><td>13.38</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>157,651</td><td>27,420</td><td>8600</td><td>18,820</td><td>31.36</td><td>68.64</td><td>17.39</td><td>5.46</td><td>11.94</td></tr></tbody></table>
The Sant'Anna started hosting in 1998. It can officially accommodate 1252 migrants, but this is often exceeded. When migrants enter the centre for the first time, they are interviewed by the Police, from whom they receive a card with an identification number. Then, they gain access to some form of accommodation shared with other migrants and undergo an interview with social workers who seek to identify migrants in need of special assistance and offer a presentation of legal information concerning their rights as well as the services available inside the centre. As the centre is not a detention structure, migrants can come and go whenever they want each day between 8am and 8pm.

Administrative registers with data on both entries and exits of migrants are kept by officers working in the centre. This information is very important for local authorities as migrants will have to be transferred to other Italian centres when the Sant'Anna is overcrowded. Our paper provides an empirical investigation of those registers.<fnref n="12" /> Our dataset corresponds to the exhaustive list of entries of migrants in the centre. It includes the four following types of information:

* Date of entry in the centre (each day of the calendar) and date of exit, from which we deduce the number of days spent in the centre;

* The reason for departure decision (if any);

* Individual characteristics with gender, date of birth (from which we calculate age at entry) and country of origin<fnref n="13" />;

* Family links, from which it is possible to find out whether a migrant enters the centre alone or with family members.

While the complete dataset covers the period from January 1st, 2008 till December 31st, 2018, we exclude the first year as there is no information on family links—the central outcome in our research question—in the 2008 register. Overall, our sample includes 37,569 entries of migrants of all ages in the centre between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2018.<fnref n="14" />

Among these migrants' entries in the period under consideration, 3249 were minors. We concentrate, in particular, on this subsample although we rely on the whole dataset to make comparisons between the two subgroups of adults and minors and, more importantly, to reconstruct the family ties (through a sort of "in-sample" record linkage). Starting from the information about family links, in fact, it is possible to match individuals belonging to the same family and calculate for each minor entered in the centre the number of family members having migrated together as well as the nature of those family relationships (with two parents, with mother only, etc.).

Using these data, we first provide some descriptive findings about entries in centre, the composition by various characteristics of minor's population in the centre and the exit reasons. Then, we focus on the family relationships at entry in Sant'Anna. In particular, using a competing risk framework we exploit the role of family relationship at entry in explaining time spent in the centre and exit reason.

<footnote n="12">¹² A special permission was given to us by the Italian Ministry of Interior to use the administrative data from Sant'Anna centre for research purposes only.</footnote>

<footnote n="13">¹³ Socio-economic variables are available only for a few years and for a very small part of the sample, so they cannot be used in our empirical analysis.</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴ N = 2610 in 2009, N = 2448 in 2010, N = 6546 in 2011, N = 1697 in 2012, N = 3242 in 2013 and N = 4422 in 2014, N = 5133 in 2015; N = 7797 in 2016; N = 2250 in 2017; N = 1428 in 2018.</footnote>
In our competing risks setting, individuals are at risk of four events, which cor-
responds to the four possible reasons of exit from the centre: voluntary departure,
transfer to another centre,<fnref n="15" /> protection (corresponding to either permit for subsidiary
protection, temporary residence permit, humanitarian protection or political asylum)<fnref n="16" />
or other reasons. So, the probability of leaving for a specific cause depends upon the
probability of leaving for other causes and there is a dependence between the competing
events. As a consequence, we consider a competing risks model (Fine & Gray, 1999) to
study time spent with reference to exit reasons in the Sant'Anna centre. The competing
risk framework is a multivariate duration model which leads to the estimation of several
hazard functions, all transitions being modelled simultaneously. The follow-up period
refers to the time elapsed from the entry to the exit in the centre. Specifically, we focus
on the two following outcomes:

(i) First, the cause-specific hazard defined as the instantaneous risk of leaving the centre from a specific reason given that the minor is still in Sant'Anna at a particular date;

(ii) Second, the cumulative incidence function which is defined as the proportion of migrants who have left for a specific reason at a certain date in the follow-up period (Coviello & Boggess, 2004).<fnref n="17" />

Descriptive findings

Entries in the centre and minor’s characteristics

We provide a description of the entries in Table 2. Over the entire period, the num-
ber of minors entering the Sant’Anna centre is 3249 corresponding to 8.6% of the total
entries of migrants. The share of minors over the total number of migrants strongly var-
ies by nationality, with an over-representation for Egypt (48.8%), Syria (25.4%), Palestine
(23.8%), Iraq (18%) and Afghanistan (16.9%). More than 7 minors over 10 are boys, while
the proportion of males is higher among adults (88.5%). The average age of migrants is
24.5 years, 10.3 for minors and 25.8 for adults, respectively. Concerning only the minors,
24.6% of them are less than 4 years old. Conversely, 38.8% of minors is at least 15 or
above and their number strongly increases with age (see also Table 3).

As can be noticed, minors' entries in the centre are concentrated particularly from
some countries. 77.8% of the 3249 minors come from six countries only: Syria (18.3%),
Afghanistan (17.5%) and Iraq (14%) contribute to one-half of the total entries of minors,
followed by Egypt (12.4%), Eritrea (9.8%) and Palestine (5.8%).

<footnote n="15">¹⁵ For years 2016 and 2017, there was an agreement of relocation between Italy and other European countries for migrants coming from Syria and Eritrea. Due to the limited number of these cases within the whole sample, we put them together with transferred, because in both cases they leave the centre to go to another centre (in Italy in the case of transfer or in another European country in the case of relocation).</footnote>

<footnote n="16">¹⁶ For the sake of brevity, we will refer to this category, which encompasses all types of protection, as “international protection”.</footnote>

<footnote n="17">¹⁷ The cumulative incidence function for each exit reason is a function of all cause-specific hazards. It is equal to zero at time zero and then increases to a limit, which is the probability that the exit will take place for a specific reason. It remains lower than one because of the competing events.</footnote>
Minors also show very different characteristics depending on their home country. For instance, Egyptian minors are predominantly boys (95.3%) and adolescents with an average age of 15 years. Conversely, the proportion of girls is much higher for minors from countries affected by wars (41.4% from Syria and 39.6% from Iraq, but also 37.7% from Eritrea), and the girls are much younger on average (with an average age of 4.7 years from Syria, 6.8 from Iraq and 5.7 from Eritrea). This different composition may also be related to the distance between the country of origin and Italy. It is much easier for young males from relatively nearby countries (such as Egypt) to face the difficulties of a journey to Italy all alone than for very young children (especially girls and, generally, children aged less than 10) from more distant lands. These children are then more likely to move with all or part of the family.

Since the recorded data include information on both entry and exit times, we calculate the total number of migrants residing in the centre at each week of the period. The number of minors in Sant'Anna ranges between 11 (June 2012) and 410 (August 2015), with a monthly average of 79. There are more than 50 minors in the centre around 4 weeks over ten. There are also substantial variations in the number of adult refugees, from 657 (September 2010) to 4758 (September 2016) with an impressive average of 1898. The total number of minors and adults is equal to 1978 on average, with a standard deviation of 876.4. As the maximum capacity is 1252, this means that the centre is very often overcrowded.<fnref n="18" />

Figure 1 shows interesting differences in the time profile of minors' and adults' presence in the centre. A first peak for both adults and minors is observed in March 2011 corresponding to the crisis in Egypt, followed by a general rising trend. For adults, a second peak is observed in 2016, while minors showed three subsequent peaks in 2014, 2015 (the highest) and 2016.

At a more detailed level by nationality (Fig. 2), in the first years under consideration we find irregular peaks of entries of minors, essentially from Afghanistan and Syria, corresponding to entries of groups of families having left together their country due to conflicts and wars. In 2015, there is a peak on minors from Egypt, while in more recent years (2016–2018), minors' flows are essentially from Syria, Iraq and Eritrea.

## The pattern of family relationships

We now analyse the family situation of minors by looking at whether they entered the centre alone or with family members. In case of family links, we further study whether they were with either one or two parents. According to Table 3, among the 3249 minors of the sample, 38.7% were alone when arriving in Sant'Anna. Hence, entry with at least one family member is more common. We find a slightly higher proportion of young people with one parent only (35.2% among accompanied minors) than with two parents (22.9%), but there is no information on whether both the father and mother are still alive and on their current place of residence. Minors entering with family were accompanied by 3 family members on average, with a standard deviation of 2.1.

<footnote n="18">¹⁸ The total number of migrants exceeds the maximum capacity in over 7 weeks over 10.</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table 2** Descriptive statistics of entries in Sant'Anna centre: minors versus adults. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Origin country</th><th colspan="4">Minors</th><th colspan="4">Adults</th><th rowspan="2">Prop. of minors (%)</th></tr><tr><th>Number</th><th>% of total migrants</th><th>Prop. of men (%)</th><th>Age (mean)</th><th>Number</th><th>% of total migrants</th><th>Prop. of men (%)</th><th>Age (mean)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Syria</td><td>596</td><td>18.3</td><td>58.6</td><td>7.5</td><td>1746</td><td>5.1</td><td>78.5</td><td>30.6</td><td>25.4</td></tr><tr><td>Afghanistan</td><td>569</td><td>17.5</td><td>78.2</td><td>12.2</td><td>2807</td><td>8.2</td><td>94.9</td><td>24.1</td><td>16.9</td></tr><tr><td>Iraq</td><td>454</td><td>14.0</td><td>60.4</td><td>7.7</td><td>2063</td><td>6.0</td><td>87.2</td><td>27.5</td><td>18.0</td></tr><tr><td>Egypt</td><td>403</td><td>12.4</td><td>95.3</td><td>15.0</td><td>422</td><td>1.2</td><td>94.1</td><td>25.4</td><td>48.8</td></tr><tr><td>Eritrea</td><td>318</td><td>9.8</td><td>62.3</td><td>7.6</td><td>4118</td><td>12.0</td><td>73.9</td><td>25.0</td><td>7.2</td></tr><tr><td>Palestine</td><td>187</td><td>5.8</td><td>68.4</td><td>9.6</td><td>598</td><td>1.7</td><td>78.1</td><td>31.3</td><td>23.8</td></tr><tr><td>Nigeria</td><td>87</td><td>2.7</td><td>59.8</td><td>9.3</td><td>2726</td><td>7.9</td><td>72.4</td><td>24.9</td><td>3.1</td></tr><tr><td>Pakistan</td><td>84</td><td>2.6</td><td>89.3</td><td>13.4</td><td>4016</td><td>11.7</td><td>99.2</td><td>28.0</td><td>2.0</td></tr><tr><td>Gambia</td><td>76</td><td>2.3</td><td>97.4</td><td>16.0</td><td>1260</td><td>3.7</td><td>99.6</td><td>21.8</td><td>5.7</td></tr><tr><td>Somalia</td><td>58</td><td>1.8</td><td>65.5</td><td>8.3</td><td>1737</td><td>5.1</td><td>71.3</td><td>24.3</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Bangladesh</td><td>45</td><td>1.4</td><td>100.0</td><td>16.1</td><td>1538</td><td>4.5</td><td>99.8</td><td>23.7</td><td>2.8</td></tr><tr><td>Ivory Coast</td><td>44</td><td>1.4</td><td>84.1</td><td>12.8</td><td>1254</td><td>3.7</td><td>92.4</td><td>26.2</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>Mali</td><td>38</td><td>1.2</td><td>100.0</td><td>16.6</td><td>1085</td><td>3.2</td><td>98.8</td><td>23.5</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>Ethiopia</td><td>33</td><td>1.0</td><td>60.6</td><td>6.3</td><td>620</td><td>1.8</td><td>69.2</td><td>24.1</td><td>5.1</td></tr><tr><td>Senegal</td><td>33</td><td>1.0</td><td>97.0</td><td>13.8</td><td>970</td><td>2.8</td><td>98.4</td><td>23.8</td><td>3.3</td></tr><tr><td>Iran</td><td>32</td><td>1.0</td><td>68.8</td><td>8.0</td><td>354</td><td>1.0</td><td>89.5</td><td>27.8</td><td>8.3</td></tr><tr><td>Sudan</td><td>30</td><td>0.9</td><td>80.0</td><td>11.6</td><td>993</td><td>2.9</td><td>94.1</td><td>25.9</td><td>2.9</td></tr><tr><td>Turkey</td><td>24</td><td>0.7</td><td>87.5</td><td>9.5</td><td>328</td><td>1.0</td><td>96.3</td><td>27.7</td><td>6.8</td></tr><tr><td>Guinea</td><td>21</td><td>0.6</td><td>100.0</td><td>15.3</td><td>531</td><td>1.5</td><td>98.1</td><td>22.1</td><td>3.8</td></tr><tr><td>Ghana</td><td>16</td><td>0.5</td><td>68.8</td><td>6.9</td><td>479</td><td>1.4</td><td>96.2</td><td>26.0</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Libya</td><td>13</td><td>0.4</td><td>30.8</td><td>4.4</td><td>88</td><td>0.3</td><td>94.3</td><td>27.3</td><td>12.9</td></tr><tr><td>Morocco</td><td>11</td><td>0.3</td><td>27.3</td><td>4.7</td><td>238</td><td>0.7</td><td>85.7</td><td>27.5</td><td>4.4</td></tr><tr><td>Other countries</td><td>77</td><td>2.4</td><td>64.9</td><td>8.3</td><td>4349</td><td>12.7</td><td>96.8</td><td>26.4</td><td>1.7</td></tr><tr><td>All countries</td><td>3249</td><td>100.0</td><td>72.2</td><td>10.3</td><td>34,320</td><td>100.0</td><td>88.5</td><td>25.8</td><td>8.6</td></tr></tbody></table>

Origin countries are sorted by decreasing number of minors

The type of family links strongly varies by individual characteristics. While almost all girls entered in Sant'Anna with family members (90.7%, most often with one parent), exactly one-half of boys correspond to single entries. One possible explanation could be that boys are much older on average than girls (11.6 compared to 6.9 years). Indeed, the proportion of children who came to the centre alone rises markedly with age. It ranges between 5 and 7% till 10 years, then increases to 26.3% for those between 10 and 14 and finally jumps to 80.9% for minors between 15 and 17. However, the gender gap in family links is not really due to age differences. If we apply a standardization procedure, assuming that boys and girls remain characterized by their gender-specific probabilities of coming alone, and applying to both groups the same age distribution (that of the whole sample) we obtain the following proportions of minors coming alone: 41.1% for boys (instead of 50.0%) and 16.9% for girls
<table><caption>**Table 3** Family relationships at entry in Sant'Anna centre: situation of minors. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">(1)<br>Characteristics</th><th rowspan="2"></th><th rowspan="2">(2)<br>Entered alone</th><th colspan="3">Entered with family</th><th rowspan="2">(6)<br>Observations</th></tr><tr><th>(3)<br>All</th><th>(4)<br>With one parent</th><th>(5)<br>With two<br>parents</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="2">Gender</td><td>Boy</td><td>50.0</td><td>50.0</td><td>26.7</td><td>20.8</td><td>2345</td></tr><tr><td>Girl</td><td>9.3</td><td>90.7</td><td>57.4</td><td>28.4</td><td>904</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="5">Age</td><td>0–4</td><td>7.1</td><td>92.9</td><td>58.6</td><td>29.8</td><td>798</td></tr><tr><td>5–9</td><td>5.0</td><td>95.0</td><td>60.2</td><td>30.7</td><td>618</td></tr><tr><td>10–14</td><td>26.3</td><td>73.7</td><td>36.9</td><td>31.4</td><td>574</td></tr><tr><td>15–17</td><td>80.9</td><td>19.1</td><td>7.3</td><td>10.9</td><td>1259</td></tr><tr><td>18–24</td><td>8.9</td><td>19.1</td><td>7.3</td><td>10.9</td><td>1259</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="20">Country</td><td>Syria</td><td>9.4</td><td>90.6</td><td>63.4</td><td>23.3</td><td>596</td></tr><tr><td>Afghanistan</td><td>51.1</td><td>48.9</td><td>33.9</td><td>13.9</td><td>569</td></tr><tr><td>Iraq</td><td>5.7</td><td>94.3</td><td>62.1</td><td>22.2</td><td>454</td></tr><tr><td>Egypt</td><td>87.3</td><td>12.7</td><td>9.2</td><td>2.5</td><td>403</td></tr><tr><td>Eritrea</td><td>23.0</td><td>77.0</td><td>12.3</td><td>62.6</td><td>318</td></tr><tr><td>Palestine</td><td>15.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>29.9</td><td>49.2</td><td>187</td></tr><tr><td>Nigeria</td><td>51.7</td><td>48.3</td><td>14.9</td><td>28.7</td><td>87</td></tr><tr><td>Pakistan</td><td>66.7</td><td>33.3</td><td>21.4</td><td>11.9</td><td>84</td></tr><tr><td>Gambia</td><td>96.1</td><td>3.9</td><td>3.9</td><td>0.0</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>Somalia</td><td>41.4</td><td>58.6</td><td>17.2</td><td>41.4</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>Bangladesh</td><td>100.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>Ivory Coast</td><td>72.7</td><td>27.3</td><td>11.4</td><td>13.6</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Mali</td><td>100.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Ethiopia</td><td>18.2</td><td>81.8</td><td>42.4</td><td>39.4</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Senegal</td><td>87.9</td><td>12.1</td><td>3.0</td><td>9.1</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Iran</td><td>6.3</td><td>93.8</td><td>59.4</td><td>28.1</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Sudan</td><td>73.3</td><td>26.7</td><td>13.3</td><td>13.3</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Turkey</td><td>16.7</td><td>83.3</td><td>66.7</td><td>16.7</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Guinea</td><td>85.7</td><td>14.3</td><td>4.8</td><td>9.5</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Ghana</td><td>31.3</td><td>68.8</td><td>56.3</td><td>12.5</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Libya</td><td>7.7</td><td>92.3</td><td>69.2</td><td>23.1</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Morocco</td><td>27.3</td><td>72.7</td><td>36.4</td><td>36.4</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Other countries</td><td>35.1</td><td>64.9</td><td>42.9</td><td>20.8</td><td>77</td></tr><tr><td>All countries</td><td>38.7</td><td>61.3</td><td>35.2</td><td>22.9</td><td>3249</td></tr></tbody></table>

Origin countries are sorted by decreasing number of minors. The figures reported in columns 2–5 are row percentages. Columns 2 and 3 show the distribution between minors who have entered alone and minors who have entered with the family. Columns 4 and 5 show the share for the two main family types over the total

(instead of 9.3%). A slight change from the observed proportion which suggests that the age composition does not explain all the difference.

Finally, we find contrasting family patterns depending on origin country. In particular, minors from Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Eritrea (all these countries being affected by war and conflicts), but also from Ethiopia, Iran, Turkey and Libya (for which the number of minors is nonetheless much lower) are very likely to enter in Sant'Anna with family members.
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1** Weekly number of minor and adults in Sant'Anna centre. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

## Exit reason and length of stay in the centre

The registers include information on the exit reason of migrants, for four main reasons: a voluntary departure (migrants leave on their own), a transfer decision (made by authorities) to another centre, the obtaining of any form of protection status, and finally other reasons (including denials of international protection as well as expulsions). Transfer to another centre should be the standard practice for not accompanied minors who, according to the international and national laws, should be placed in special structures for minors only.<fnref n="19" /> However, our data show that unaccompanied minors stay in the centre and, sometimes, for a long period. About voluntary departure, since migrants hosted in the centre are free to leave the centre during the day, but are obliged to come back every evening, authorities consider escaped those who do not come back for several days. They escape sometimes before applying for international protection and are recorded in the administrative registers as having “voluntarily” departed, although we cannot be sure, especially in the case of minors, if their escape was voluntary or not (in the worst case, they may be kidnapped).

As shown in Table 4, 43.1% of minors leave the centre voluntarily. This proportion is 4.2 percentage points lower when considering adults (38.9%). In fact, minors and adults depart for very different reasons. As expected, there are many more transfers to other places for minors than for adults (40.2% against 8.2%), while the international protection status is 5.8 times higher for adults (47.6% against 8.2%).

<footnote n="19">¹⁹ For a recent overview of the reception system for unaccompanied migrant minors in Italy, see Argento (2024).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2** Weekly number of minors in Sant'Anna centre by selected origin countries. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

Table 4 shows also that the situation is very heterogeneous as regards origin countries. Both among minors and adults, the proportion of voluntary departures is extremely high among migrants from Syria (73.3% for minors, 84.5% for adults) and from Palestine (90.9% for minors, 82.2% for adults). This may suggest that migrants from these two countries do not intend to stay in Italy, or at least Calabria. In fact, migrants from these nationalities, escape from the centre very quickly, sometimes within the first 24–48 h from the entrance into the centre to avoid being “caught” by the Dublin system.

Considering the nationalities with the highest number of minors entering the centre, minors from Egypt, and to a lesser extent Pakistan and Nigeria, are characterized by high transfer rates (76.4%, 75.3% and 74.4%, respectively), while international protection is more frequent for Nigerian (20.9%), Somali (17.2%), Iraqi (15.7%), Pakistan (13.6%) and Eritrean minors (12.9%). For a few countries, we observe significant differences in the pattern of exit reasons between minors and adults. For instance, international protection is very infrequent for minors from Afghanistan (2.3%) while this status is observed for about one-half of adults from the same country. International protection is more frequent for adults from African countries.

Exit reasons are expected to be related to time spent in the centre. Migrants intending to go elsewhere will presumably seek to leave the centre as soon as possible. In the same vein, migrants transferred to another location due to space constraints will certainly remain very little time at the centre. Conversely, migrants who enter Italy in the hope of attaining international protection status in this country will remain in the centre and probably will have to wait several months before obtaining official documents.<fnref n="20" />

<footnote n="20">²⁰ Territorial Commissions have 90 days to decide about the application, but this time is very often exceeded due to the high number of applications and administrative inefficiencies.</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table 4** Exit reasons from Sant'Anna centre by country of origin: minors versus adults. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors’ calculations</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Origin country</th><th colspan="4">Minors</th><th colspan="4">Adults</th></tr><tr><th>Voluntary departure</th><th>Transfer/ relocation</th><th>International protection</th><th>Other reasons</th><th>Voluntary departure</th><th>Transfer/ relocation</th><th>International protection</th><th>Other reasons</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Syria</td><td>73.3</td><td>10.6</td><td>1.8</td><td>14.3</td><td>84.5</td><td>0.6</td><td>7.4</td><td>7.6</td></tr><tr><td>Afghanistan</td><td>57.9</td><td>33.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>6.2</td><td>32.1</td><td>38.7</td><td>25.2</td><td>3.9</td></tr><tr><td>Iraq</td><td>43.9</td><td>24.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>15.7</td><td>46.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>26.7</td><td>7.4</td></tr><tr><td>Egypt</td><td>12.9</td><td>76.4</td><td>6.2</td><td>4.5</td><td>22.5</td><td>0.2</td><td>52.2</td><td>25.1</td></tr><tr><td>Eritrea</td><td>32.8</td><td>39.1</td><td>12.9</td><td>15.1</td><td>37.3</td><td>1.9</td><td>40.6</td><td>20.1</td></tr><tr><td>Palestine</td><td>90.9</td><td>8.0</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>82.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>15.6</td><td>2.0</td></tr><tr><td>Nigeria</td><td>4.7</td><td>74.4</td><td>20.9</td><td>0.0</td><td>18.3</td><td>0.3</td><td>81.2</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Pakistan</td><td>9.9</td><td>75.3</td><td>13.6</td><td>1.2</td><td>25.4</td><td>7.1</td><td>66.9</td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>Gambia</td><td>11.8</td><td>85.5</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>20.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>79.4</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Somalia</td><td>19.0</td><td>56.9</td><td>17.2</td><td>6.9</td><td>38.1</td><td>26.7</td><td>31.7</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td>Bangladesh</td><td>8.9</td><td>88.9</td><td>2.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>19.0</td><td>0.6</td><td>80.1</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Ivory Coast</td><td>14.0</td><td>76.7</td><td>9.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>11.7</td><td>13.2</td><td>75.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Mali</td><td>0.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>16.9</td><td>5.1</td><td>77.6</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Ethiopia</td><td>24.2</td><td>51.5</td><td>24.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>22.2</td><td>4.9</td><td>72.6</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Senegal</td><td>6.1</td><td>78.8</td><td>15.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>18.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>80.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr><tr><td>Iran</td><td>40.6</td><td>28.1</td><td>9.4</td><td>21.9</td><td>52.3</td><td>5.5</td><td>35.3</td><td>6.9</td></tr><tr><td>Sudan</td><td>10.7</td><td>78.6</td><td>3.6</td><td>7.1</td><td>33.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>51.3</td><td>14.3</td></tr><tr><td>Turkey</td><td>66.7</td><td>16.7</td><td>16.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>39.3</td><td>13.8</td><td>46.5</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td>Guinea</td><td>9.5</td><td>90.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>32.4</td><td>3.6</td><td>63.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr><td>Ghana</td><td>28.6</td><td>50.0</td><td>21.4</td><td>0.0</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.0</td><td>78.9</td><td>0.7</td></tr><tr><td>Libya</td><td>23.1</td><td>69.2</td><td>7.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>58.8</td><td>3.5</td><td>27.1</td><td>10.6</td></tr><tr><td>Morocco</td><td>0.0</td><td>45.5</td><td>54.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>8.9</td><td>0.9</td><td>60.9</td><td>29.4</td></tr><tr><td>Other countries</td><td>12.3</td><td>50.7</td><td>34.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>73.2</td><td>19.5</td><td>6.5</td><td>0.8</td></tr><tr><td>All countries</td><td>43.1</td><td>40.2</td><td>8.2</td><td>8.5</td><td>38.9</td><td>8.2</td><td>47.6</td><td>5.3</td></tr></tbody></table>

According to data, much shorter durations are found for minors leaving the centre either because of voluntary departure (19.6 days) or transfer (9.2 days) than for international protection (157.7 days).<fnref n="21" />

We investigate the role of family links at entry on time spent in the centre using the non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimator. In Fig. 3, we present survival curves obtained for minors and adults depending on whether they were alone or with family at entry, respectively.<fnref n="22" /> Our results show three different profiles.

First, minors who entered alone stay very little time in the centre. Around 75% of them leave the centre after 10 days only and less than 5% are still in the centre after one month. Second, minors and adults entering with family have very similar profiles, suggesting that migrants entering as family are very likely to leave the centre as family. After 2 weeks, about one-half of migrants left the centre. This proportion rises to almost 80%

<footnote n="21">²¹ The average number of days in the centre is 61.5 for minors leaving for other reasons.</footnote>

<footnote n="22">²² Migrants residing at the centre at the end of 2018 are treated as censored observations.</footnote>
for minors with family and to 65% for adults with family after one month and to around 85% and over 70% after 2 months for minors and adults, respectively. Third, adults entering alone spend much more time in the centre. After one month, around one-half of adult migrants without family have left but then the survival curves decreases slowly.

On average, a minor stays 29.5 days in Sant'Anna with a standard deviation of 61.9, but the median value is only 5 days (censored observations are excluded from calculations). At the same time, there are substantial differences between countries with much shorter durations for minors from Middle Eastern countries (19.9 days for Afghanistan, 21.4 for Syria, 6.7 for Palestine, but 14.8 for Egypt, 36.5 for Iraq and 57.7 for Eritrea) compared to other countries.

Differences in the time spent in the centre emerges according to family links at entry, as the length of stay is nearly five times longer for minors who entered the centre with family (42.9 days) than for those arriving alone (8.4 days). This difference may be due to the fact that, as said, unaccompanied minors are more likely to be assigned to other structures (the SPRAR network spread all over the region during the years under consideration in this paper). For the six most numerous origin countries, we always find a much higher number of days in the centre for minors with family compared to those entering unaccompanied: 22.9 days against 7.2 for Syria, 29.9 days against 10.4 for Afghanistan, 38.3 against 6 for Iraq, 71.5 against 6.6 for Egypt, and 71.7 days against 11 for Eritrea, for instance. An explanation of these differences in length of stay may be the fact that migrants do not leave the Sant'Anna centre for the same reasons.

# Empirical findings

## Exit reason and family links

We present in Fig. 4 the cumulative incidence functions obtained for the four exit reasons without any covariate. Voluntary departures and transfers are both characterized by a high exit rate in the first week after entry: for the first reason, around 20% of minors left Sant'Anna during the first 7 days, while for the second, minors leave the centre even earlier. While the cumulative incidence quickly reaches its maximum in the case of transfers, voluntary departures are still very frequent in the first couple of weeks after entry and the curve becomes flat after about 2 months. Conversely, the cumulative incidence is very low for the international protection reason at 3 months. Afterwards, the proportion of minors leaving with this status increases slowly over time: around 4% after 4 months and around 5% after 6 months.

We introduce the role of family relationships in Fig. 5.<fnref n="23" /> Voluntary departures occur very soon after arrival. However, one month after entry, the proportion of minors having left the centre on their own is almost three times higher when they entered Italy with family compared to when they came alone (about 56% against 20%). Conversely, transfers to other centres or structures are much more likely for minors entering alone than

<footnote n="23">²³ The proportion of minors with family is 82.0% for voluntary departures, 30.3% for transfers and 95.8% for international protection. Hence, we do not plot the curve for this last exit reason due to the very small number of observations classified as alone minors (N = 11).</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3** Kaplan-Meier estimates of exit from Sant'Anna centre: minors versus adults. *Source*: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

for minors with family. For the former group, transfers occur earlier with a probability exceeding 75% after one month.

After having analysed the time of exit by family type through the incidence function, we turn to an econometric analysis to assess the role of individual characteristics and family relationships at entry on time spent in the Sant'Anna centre. Our dependent variable is the length of stay in the centre for each reason and the various risks of exit are modelled using survival regressions. The reason-specific hazard for a minor depends on a baseline hazard specific to each exit reason and on reason-specific parameters estimated by means of a maximum likelihood method. We estimate the competing risks model for the four exit reasons simultaneously with gender (female = 1), age at entry (0–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15–17) and country of origin (six dummies for the most numerous nationalities and a residual category for the others) as explanatory variables. Also, we estimate an additional regression including the variable about family relationships at entry. Results, reported as odds ratios, are presented in Table 5.<fnref n="24" />

Our estimates show that the hazard ratio associated with voluntary departure is 18.2% higher for girls than for boys, meaning that girls leave the centre earlier (column 1 A). A similar pattern is found when considering international protection (column 3 A), while the hazard ratio found for transfers is lower for girls than for boys (column 2 A). We find contrasting results for age. Compared to the 0–4 age group, minors aged 15–17 stay longer in the centre before leaving on their own, minors aged 10 and more leave earlier in the case of transfers, and older minors spend much more time in Sant'Anna in the case of international protection since they have very low hazard rates. Finally, the exit

<footnote n="24">²⁴ The competing risk estimates obtained for other reasons are not reported, as only 30 minors are concerned.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 4** Cumulative incidence functions by exit motives from Sant'Anna centre (minors). Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 5** Cumulative incidence functions by exit motives and family relationships at entry (minors). Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

time profile is strongly influenced by the country of origin. The hazard rate of minors from Syria or Palestine leaving on their own is almost 8 and over 20 times higher, respectively, compared to that of minors from the reference group (column 1A), while minors
from either Eritrea or Iraq leaving with the international protection status stay fewer
days in Sant'Anna (column 3 A).

We introduce the role of family links at entry in columns (1B), (2B) and (3B) of Table 5.
Results show that family status is very influential when explaining time spent in the cen-
tre. Net of the role of gender, age and origin country, the hazard ratio associated to vol-
untary departure is more than two times higher for accompanied minors, but it is 76.1%
lower in case of transfers to another centre.<fnref n="25" /> The contrasting pattern for voluntary
departures supports the following interpretation.

On the one hand, minors coming with family members are followers in the sense that the joint migration decision has certainly been taken by their parents. When parents do not intend to stay in Italy, they leave the centre very quickly and will bring their children with them to reach their final destination. On the other hand, minors entering with family and transferred to another location spend more time in the centre. It is certainly easier to place unaccompanied minors in other structures specifically devoted to young migrants. Moreover, when the centre is overcrowded, the situation of minors will presumably be considered as a matter of priority.<fnref n="26" />

A deeper insight on voluntary departures

In a second step, we investigate possible differences in the reason-specific exit time of
minors by country and family, concentrating the attention on those who escape. We
focus, in particular, on voluntary departures since, as already explained, there are some
literature evidences that support the idea that, although Italy is one of the main gate to
enter Europe, the country may not be the preferred destination (Stranges & Wolff, 2018;
Valenta et al., 2015).

We present in Fig. 6 the cumulative incidence functions obtained for voluntary departures for the most important countries of origin of minors.<fnref n="27" /> For all the observed nationalities, we confirm the results found for the whole sample. In particular, voluntary departures occur very soon after entrance in the centre, and the cumulative incidence function for minors with family exceeds that of unaccompanied minors. When they enter Sant'Anna with other family members, minors leave the centre earlier. Besides these common patterns, we note very distinct levels in the cumulative incidence. Voluntary exits are more frequent for minors coming from Palestine and Syria (and to a lesser extent Afghanistan). Conversely, those coming from Egypt or Eritrea are less likely to leave on their own.

The most striking figures, as emerged from Table 5 and Fig. 6, are those about Syrian
and Palestinian refugees. It is interesting to notice that although individuals from both
these nationalities may obtain the refugee status very easily (due to the fact that both

<footnote n="25">²⁵ When considering international protection, we find a very high hazard ratio. This result has to be interpreted cautiously as there are very few minors leaving the centre due to international protection (N = 11). This is because, as previously explained, minors who come alone are not expected to stay in such a facility and are usually transferred automatically to a specialised centre exclusively for unaccompanied minors. Consequently, those who receive the international protection while they are in Sant'Anna are very few and are almost all accompanied by their families.</footnote>

<footnote n="26">²⁶ Conversely, transferring large families to other centres is more difficult, particularly because such families tend to travel in groups with other families from the same country of origin. Furthermore, local authorities are generally reluctant to separate parents from their children.</footnote>

<footnote n="27">²⁷ Calculations are made for male minors aged between 15 and 17. Predictions are restricted to a maximum follow-up time of 6 months.</footnote>
<caption>**Table 5** Estimates from a competing risk model explaining exit from Sant'Anna centre (minors).</caption>

Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors’ calculations

<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Variables</th><th colspan="2">Voluntary departure</th><th colspan="2">Transfer/relocation</th><th colspan="2">International protection</th></tr><tr><th>(1 A)</th><th>(1B)</th><th>(2 A)</th><th>(2B)</th><th>(3 A)</th><th>(3B)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Girl</td><td>1.182***<br>(2.83)</td><td>1.091<br>(1.50)</td><td>0.660***<br>(-5.40)</td><td>0.794***<br>(-2.85)</td><td>1.350**<br>(2.25)</td><td>1.248*<br>(1.72)</td></tr><tr><td>Age 5–9<br>(ref: Age 0–4)</td><td>1.060<br>(0.76)</td><td>1.057<br>(0.74)</td><td>0.983<br>(-0.16)</td><td>0.983<br>(-0.16)</td><td>0.974<br>(-0.19)</td><td>0.963<br>(-0.27)</td></tr><tr><td>Age 10–14</td><td>1.025<br>(0.31)</td><td>1.105<br>(1.26)</td><td>1.586***<br>(4.61)</td><td>1.172<br>(1.56)</td><td>0.509***<br>(-3.64)</td><td>0.716*<br>(-1.83)</td></tr><tr><td>Age 15–17</td><td>0.708***<br>(-4.02)</td><td>1.051<br>(0.57)</td><td>3.022***<br>(14.42)</td><td>1.289***<br>(2.58)</td><td>0.040***<br>(-9.70)</td><td>0.195***<br>(-3.40)</td></tr><tr><td>Syria<br>(ref: other countries)</td><td>7.834***<br>(17.89)</td><td>6.326***<br>(15.77)</td><td>0.289***<br>(-11.59)</td><td>0.425***<br>(-7.52)</td><td>0.058***<br>(-8.98)</td><td>0.052***<br>(-9.41)</td></tr><tr><td>Afghanistan</td><td>5.312***<br>(15.03)</td><td>5.138***<br>(14.92)</td><td>0.410***<br>(-10.26)</td><td>0.447***<br>(-9.26)</td><td>0.137***<br>(-6.81)</td><td>0.128***<br>(-6.98)</td></tr><tr><td>Iraq</td><td>3.092***<br>(9.13)</td><td>2.448***<br>(7.15)</td><td>0.413***<br>(-7.97)</td><td>0.687***<br>(-3.18)</td><td>0.549***<br>(-3.79)</td><td>0.465***<br>(-4.94)</td></tr><tr><td>Egypt</td><td>1.032<br>(0.18)</td><td>1.188<br>(1.01)</td><td>0.829***<br>(-3.15)</td><td>0.742***<br>(-5.05)</td><td>1.140<br>(0.56)</td><td>1.476*<br>(1.65)</td></tr><tr><td>Eritrea</td><td>2.159***<br>(5.59)</td><td>1.847***<br>(4.43)</td><td>0.892<br>(-1.34)</td><td>1.066<br>(0.69)</td><td>0.461***<br>(-4.13)</td><td>0.427***<br>(-4.58)</td></tr><tr><td>Palestine</td><td>20.449***<br>(22.03)</td><td>16.775***<br>(20.52)</td><td>0.099***<br>(-8.58)</td><td>0.153***<br>(-6.96)</td><td>0.043***<br>(-4.41)</td><td>0.037***<br>(-4.59)</td></tr><tr><td>With family at entry</td><td></td><td>2.368***<br>(8.78)</td><td></td><td>0.239***<br>(-17.24)</td><td></td><td>10.672***<br>(4.32)</td></tr><tr><td>Number of observations</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td></tr><tr><td>Log pseudolikelihood</td><td>-10,347.7</td><td>-10,301.3</td><td>-10,357.1</td><td>-10,225.6</td><td>-1909.3</td><td>-1881.2</td></tr></tbody></table>

Estimates (reported as odds ratios) from competing risk models obtained by a maximum likelihood method, with robust standard errors. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. Significance levels are 1% (**), 5% (**) and 10% (*)

countries are affected by a permanent state of war), still the hazard rate for minors to leave the centre on their own is extremely high, signalling that they are not interested in staying in the centre and in Calabria waiting to obtain the protection. They escape as earlier as possible, very often even before applying for international protection.

## Additional estimations

We estimate several additional regressions to assess the robustness of our findings and to exploit other issues related, in particular, to the different family types and to the existence of a size effect (Table 6). First, we question whether entering the centre with only one parent rather than two parents has an influence on the length of stay (columns 1A, 2A, 3A). For voluntary departures, there is no significant difference since the hazard rate with two parents (2.43) is very similar to that with one parent (2.40). The same pattern is found for international protection. For transfers, the hazard rates are 81.7% lower with two parents and 72.7% lower with one parent. A Wald test shows that both coefficients are significantly different ($\chi^2 = 14.94$, $p < 0.001$).
<figure><img src="image_9.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 6** Cumulative incidence functions for voluntary departures by family relationships (minors). Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors' calculations</figcaption></figure>

Second, we include both the existence of family links at entry and the number of fam-
ily members entering together, in order to capture a size effect (columns 1B, 2B, 3B). The
number of family members has no significant influence for voluntary departures and
international protection, with the coefficient measuring family at entry remaining posi-
tive and highly significant. By contrast, the sign of the family size covariate is negative
for transfers, with a corresponding odds ratio equal to 0.927 (t-value = -2.27). The coef-
ficient measuring family at entry remains negative (the odds ratio is below 1) and highly
significant. As expected, relocating large families takes considerably more time—due to
delays in finding suitable accommodation—compared to unaccompanied minors.

We have estimated additional regressions with more articulated family types: both parents, only mother, only father, only other relatives.<fnref n="28" /> We find that for voluntary departures there are no substantial differences between either coming with one parent (mother or father) or both parents. For all these variables (all statistically significant) the hazard is more than twice higher than for minors coming alone. Entering the centre without both parents but with other relatives (brothers, sisters, uncles or aunts and so on) has a lower impact on voluntary departures, with an odds ratio equal to 1.50. For transfers, the hazard rate is 81.7% lower for minors who have entered the centre with both parents, 72.8% and 72.5% lower for those entering only with the mother and only with father, respectively. For those entering without parents but with other relatives, the hazard of being transferred is 52.8% lower than for unaccompanied minors.

In a final step, as the percentage of those arriving with family varies strongly by nation-
ality, we estimate some models including interaction terms between country of origin

<footnote n="28">²⁸ In the case of both parents (only mother or only father), we consider these categories including other relatives, if any. These additional results are not reported for the sake of brevity but available upon request.</footnote>
<table><caption>**Table 6** Additional estimations: different types of family links and size effect. Source: data from Sant'Anna centre 2009–2018, authors’ calculations</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Variables</th><th colspan="2">Voluntary departure</th><th colspan="2">Transfer/relocation</th><th colspan="2">International protection</th></tr><tr><th>(1 A)</th><th>(1B)</th><th>(2 A)</th><th>(2B)</th><th>(3 A)</th><th>(3B)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Both parents</td><td>2.426***<br>(8.41)</td><td></td><td>0.183***<br>(-16.33)</td><td></td><td>12.284***<br>(4.40)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>One parent only</td><td>2.402***<br>(8.58)</td><td></td><td>0.273***<br>(-14.00)</td><td></td><td>10.950***<br>(4.37)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Other family configuration<br>(ref: no family at entry)</td><td>1.498*<br>(1.90)</td><td></td><td>0.472***<br>(-3.85)</td><td></td><td>0.717<br>(-0.28)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>With family at entry</td><td></td><td>2.374***<br>(7.63)</td><td></td><td>0.295***<br>(-10.04)</td><td></td><td>9.360***<br>(4.06)</td></tr><tr><td>Number of family members at entry</td><td></td><td>0.999<br>(-0.04)</td><td></td><td>0.927**<br>(-2.27)</td><td></td><td>1.048<br>(1.09)</td></tr><tr><td>Full controls</td><td>YES</td><td>YES</td><td>YES</td><td>YES</td><td>YES</td><td>YES</td></tr><tr><td>Number of observations</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td><td>3249</td></tr><tr><td>Log pseudolikelihood</td><td>-10,295.6</td><td>-10,301.3</td><td>-10,210.7</td><td>-10,222.6</td><td>-1868.9</td><td>-1880.6</td></tr></tbody></table>

Estimates (reported as odds ratios) from competing risk models obtained by a maximum likelihood method, with robust standard errors. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. Significance levels are 1% (**), 5% (**) and 10% (*)

and family links at entry.<fnref n="29" /> For voluntary departure, the crossed terms corresponding to Syria, Egypt and Eritrea are all negative and statistically significant. This means that minors from those countries entering with family members tend to stay longer in the centre compared to accompanied minors from other countries. The situation is more heterogeneous for transfers. Accompanied minors from Syria and Eritrea tend to stay longer in the centre, while accompanied minors from Afghanistan and Palestine leave the centre earlier.

## Conclusions

The European Union is surely one of the most desired destinations for migrants coming from Africa, Asia and Eastern European countries outside the EU. According to Hatton (2017), the recent asylum crisis has highlighted the inadequacies of European asylum policies: existing asylum system, which encourages migrants to make hazardous maritime or overland crossings to gain access to an uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status, is inefficient, poorly targeted and lacks public support. Italy has always played a central role in the migration flows in the Mediterranean Sea, being one the most important gates of entry.

When dealing with the topic of forced migration, we have to consider that a large share of migrants is composed of children who endanger their own lives on unseaworthy boats and dinghies, very often without parents or any other relative. In particular, we cannot ignore the fate of unaccompanied minors who are an extremely vulnerable group: they are minors, they are foreign, they are not accompanied by parental figures and they are forced to project their possible future into a land of which they often do not even know the language, far from their roots (Bordi, 2014).

<footnote n="29">²⁹ Results are not reported for the sake of brevity, but available upon request.</footnote>
Despite the growing attention toward the issue of refugees and displaced persons in the academic and political debate, very little is known on the paths of minors who arrive in Europe when they enter a reception centre. The aim of our paper is to fill this gap by providing an empirical analysis based on unique data collected in a reception centre located in the south of Italy, over a period of 10 years (from 2009 to 2018). Specifically, we focus on the role of family at entry (i.e. accompanied or unaccompanied) on the length of stay in the centre and exit reason for a sample of minors.

Our analysis provides several interesting results. More than half of minors entering the centre in the 10 years under investigation chose to leave voluntary, while around a quarter were transferred to other places. The length of stay in the centre is about five times longer for minors who entered with family than for those who arrived alone. Results from a competing risks model show that the family status is very influential when explaining time spent in the centre even after accounting for gender, age and origin country as control variables. The hazard ratio associated to voluntary departures is much higher for accompanied minors (they leave the centre earlier), while it is lower in case of transfers to another centre. Difficulties in transferring families rather than single individuals to other centres as well as the intention of families to migrate to other countries rather than stay in Italy may explain these results. Finally, we evidence substantial heterogeneity in the pattern of exit reasons depending on the origin country of the minors.

When interpreting our empirical results, a limitation is that we have access to data about one refugee centre only so that our findings may differ from those in other centres in Italy. Indeed, the Sant'Anna centre typically serves as the first reception facility for migrants landing in Italy or at most the second accommodation for those arriving from Sicily, whereas centres in other parts of Italy are more likely to provide subsequent placements for migrants. Furthermore, due to its specific location in the South of Italy, the centre is likely to attract migrants from particular areas, in particular from African countries. Moreover, our data may be affected by potential selection and measurement bias, as minors who reached the centre may differ from those who landed elsewhere. Finally, our data come from an administrative source that includes only a limited set of variables, while many potentially relevant ones are missing. For all these reasons, starting from the results in this paper, we cannot credibly discuss the overall patterns and time of exit from a reception centre of all minors migrating to Italy. Despite the drawbacks and the local dimension of our results, our paper is a first attempt to provide evidence based on individual data of the time and reason of exit from a centre of minors landing in Italy and, especially, concentrating on the differences between those coming alone and those coming with family, using a very unique dataset which covers a long period and several different nationalities. It is also worth noting that our results about the number of minors who leave the centre voluntarily are more accurate than official statistics, which are based on the number of untraceable over the total number of asylum applications. In other words, they underestimate the phenomenon because many migrants abscond even before submitting their application. In particular, our results highlight the fact that minors who come with the family have a higher probability of absconding from the centre with all the family members.
Overall, our results raise the issue of the effectiveness of the asylum system in Europe, currently administered under the Dublin System. As is the case of adults, most minors who land in Italy do not intend to stay permanently there, even if they are obliged to stay in the country where they first apply. Very frequently, the first country of arrival is not the desired destination, which explains why a large proportion of migrants abscond after have landed in Italy (possibly even before applying for international protection) or leave the reception centres as soon as possible. Therefore, our findings have very important political implications since, as shown by available aggregate data, these migrants who leave the centre become formally untraceable. This poses serious ethical issues, especially for minors who can be more exposed to danger than adults. Evidence suggests that unaccompanied children are vulnerable to exploitation and abuse at every stage of their journey, with girls and children from sub-Saharan Africa being particularly at risk (Unicef, 2023).<fnref n="30" /> When the migrants voluntarily leave the reception system, they can no longer be protected. Untraceable minors become “invisible” and at serious of risk of abuse, neglect, violence, exploitation or trafficking.

Although our data do not allow us to follow minors after they leave the centre, our analysis may help shed light on some aspects of their migration history, which can be important to target more effective policies. Albeit challenging, it would be of interest to collect detailed information on the young migrants who have spent time in such centres and more specifically on their experience (both in terms of location, employment or health) in the months following their departure. We leave this issue for future research.

**Acknowledgements**

We thank Alberto Nilo Domanico, Giuseppe Facino, Francesco Tipaldi and Giulia Caminiti for their help in collecting original data. Any remaining errors are ours.

**Author contributions**

MS: conception of the research idea, data collection, literature review, data analysis, interpretation of results, drafting the manuscript, revising the manuscript. FCW: conception of the research idea, data management, data analysis, interpretation of results, drafting the manuscript. All authors approved the final version.

**Funding**

This study received funding by the European Union – NextGenerationEU under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) – Mission 4 Education and Research – Component 2 From Research to Business – Investment 1.1 Notice PRIN 2022 – DD N. 104 of 02/02/2022, under the project entitled **AVRAI – Assessing the Vulnerability of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Italy**, proposal code 2022XSM5SX – CUP B53D23016960006.
MS acknowledges financial support from MUR - Ministry of University and Research (research project ex 60% - year 2024 "Health conditions of asylum seekers").

**Availability of data and materials**

The original data were collected by MS under a special permission granted by the Italian Ministry of Interior for research purposes only. The data cannot be shared, although the authors are available to answer any questions.

**Declarations**

**Ethics approval**

This study uses administrative data from the Sant'Anna Centre (Crotone, Italy). The authors were granted special permission by the Italian Ministry of Interior to access and use this data exclusively for research purposes.

**Informed consent**

Informed consent was not required, as the study did not involve interviews or direct interaction with individuals. The data used were administrative records, fully anonymized, and the results are presented solely in aggregate form.

**Competing interests**

The authors declare that they have no competing interests related to the publication of this article.

<footnote n="30">³⁰ For a recent reflection about the well-being of unaccompanied minors in Italy, particularly with reference to the young Nigerian women hosted in Sicily, see Tumminelli (2024).</footnote>
Received: 13 March 2024 Accepted: 19 May 2025

Published online: 01 July 2025

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