# Modelling adaptation strategies to climate change in Mediterranean small ruminant systems

Amandine Lurette, S Lobón, F Douhard, M Blanco-Alibes, D Martin-Collado, L Puillet, A Madrid, M Curtil, Fabien Stark

► To cite this version:

Amandine Lurette, S Lobón, F Douhard, M Blanco-Alibes, D Martin-Collado, et al.. Modelling adaptation strategies to climate change in Mediterranean small ruminant systems . 74. Annual Meeting of the European Federation of Animal Science (EAAP 2023), Wageningen Academic Publishers, Aug 2023, Lyon, France. p. 652. hal-04661285

HAL Id: hal-04661285

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04661285v1

Submitted on 24 Jul 2024

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# Modelling adaptation strategies to climate change in Mediterranean small ruminant systems

A. Lurette¹, S. Lobón², F. Douhard³, M. Blanco-Alibes², D. Martin-Collado², L. Puillet³, A. Madrid⁴, M. Curtil¹,⁴, F. Stark¹

¹ UMR SELMET, Montpellier, France

² CITA, Departamento de Ciencia Animal, Zaragoza, Spain

³ UMR GenPhySE, Castanet-Tolosan, France

⁴ UMR MoSAR, Paris, France

⁵ Idele, Toulouse, France

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INRAO

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GOBIERNO
DE ARAGON

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# Modelling climate change adaptations of pastoral farming systems

**Mediterranean context** : agropastoral livestock farming systems specificities heterogeneity of animals, diversity in land use and flock mobility

→ more particularly affected by climate change

To design efficient & resilient LFS → it is necessary to be able to design strategies in **anticipation** and to **consider the agropastoral specificities**

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Modelling as a tool to describe, to understand impacts and to design adaptations strategies

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The objective is therefore to evaluating the multi-level implications of adaptation levers on the expected performances with regard to the issues of CC
# Method combining focus group & modelling

## New adaptative strategies to cope with climate change

Workshop on adaptation strategies

## Describing

The initial system characterisation

Case-studies

## Designing

DEED method

## Explaining

The system through the climate change impacts assessment

Workshop on climate change impacts & modelling

## Possible adaptation levers and their associations

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## Exploring

Interviews / Serious game * & modelling

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>Rangeland Rummy – A board game to support adaptive management of rangeland-based livestock systems (Farrié et al., 2014)</figcaption></figure>

Multi-agent based model developed in GAMA language

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DESCRIBING > EXPLAINING > EXPLORING > DESIGNING

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Transhumant systems</th><th>Sedentary systems</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Spanish<br>Case studies</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>French<br>Case studies</td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

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Flock size

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Lambings

Sp. Transhumant

Fr. Transhumant

APRIL-DECEMBER

FEBRUARY-MARCH

Less Intensive

Sp. Sedentary

Fr. Sedentary

MARCH
JUNE
SEPTEMBER

More Intensive

JANUARY
JUNE
SEPTEMBER

Production / sales

Culled ewes 31

47

87

112

Heavy lambs 0

356

0

0

Ligth lambs 328

2

149

219

Farming area

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Grazing and autonomy

Grazing rate 69%

85%

78%

63%

Fodder autonomy 69%

85%

78%

85%

Grain autonomy 0%

0%

293%

13%
# The livestock farming system conceptual model

## Resources model

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inputs / outputs

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Land use

- Plot type

- Surface

- ...

Feeding ressources

- grains / forage / grass

- yearly / seasonal

- ...

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Crop Management

- Agricultural practices

- Growth Yield

- Cutting yield

- ...

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## Flock model

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Current and expected Climate Change effects for agro-pastoral systems

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Choppy and
irregular growth

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Thermal stress
Threat to the survival of plant
species

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Uncertain autumn
rebound

=> Assumption: - 15% decline in forage production yields
<figure><img src="image_31.png" /><figcaption>French Transhumant</figcaption></figure>

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Levers to mobilize involved the **same components** for all case studies :

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.... but with **different ways of implementation**
<table><thead><tr><th>French Transhumant</th><th>Heavy lambs</th><th>Light lambs</th><th>Lack of grasslands</th><th>Lack of rangelands</th><th>Fodder autonomy</th><th>Grazing rate</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Initial under CC</td><td>356 (+/-5)</td><td>2</td><td>5</td><td>63</td><td>85%</td><td>85%</td></tr><tr><td>+18Ha mowed grassland</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Forage management</td><td>360 (+/-5)</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>63</td><td>102%<br>+7%</td><td>85%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>Spanish<br>Transhumant</th><th>Heavy lambs</th><th>Light lambs</th><th>Lack of<br>grasslands</th><th>Lack of<br>rangelands</th><th>Fodder<br>automony</th><th>Grazing rate</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Initial under CC</td><td>0</td><td>328 (+/-4)</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>69%</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>+20Ha vineyard in winter<br><strong>Forage management</strong></td><td>0</td><td>330 (+/-4)</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td><strong>73%</strong><br><strong>+4%</strong></td><td><strong>73%</strong><br><strong>+4%</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Only heavy lambs<br><strong>Flock management</strong></td><td>319<br><strong>+319</strong></td><td>0<br><strong>- 328</strong></td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td><strong>71%</strong><br><strong>+2%</strong></td><td><strong>71%</strong><br><strong>+2%</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>

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Description of one case study

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Comparison between adaptation strategies

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Checklist

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✔ DEED_ADAPT_ESP_MOUTAIN

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_FM1

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_FM2

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_FM3

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_HM1

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_HM2

ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_HM3

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✔ ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_HM4

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✔ ESP_MOUTAIN_CC_HM4B

Checklist

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✔ ESP_DRYLANDS

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_FeedM1

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_FM1

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_FM2

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_FM3

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_HM1

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_HM2

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_HM3

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_HM4

ESP_DRYLANDS_CC_HM4B

Checklist

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✔

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OVC

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OVC_CC

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OVC_CC_FM1

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OVC_CC_FM1B

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OVC_CC_FM1B

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OVC_CC_FM2

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OVC_CC_FM2

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OVC_CC_FM3

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OVC_CC_HM1

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OVC_CC_HM2

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OVC_CC_HM2

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OVC_CC_HM3

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OVC_CC_HM3

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OVC_CC_HM3B

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OVC_FeedM1

Checklist

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✔

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OVH

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OVH_CC

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OVH_CC_FeedM1

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OVH_CC_FM1

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OVH_CC_FM2

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OVH_CC_FM3

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OVH_CC_HM1

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OVH_CC_HM2

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OVH_CC_HM3

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✔

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OVH_CC_HM4

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✔

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OVH_CC_HM4B

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About

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6 days a year

Rangeland lack

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151 Kg

DM/year

Forage consumed

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# Modelling as a tool to explore adaptation of Mediterranean sheep farming systems to climate change

Many thanks to the colleagues of AdaptHerd project, Thibault Raffaillac and Youness Ayyoubi