# Estimation of the electricity production of a PV installation using PVGIS

Loic Queval

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /></figure>

## To cite this version:

Loic Queval. Estimation of the electricity production of a PV installation using PVGIS. Engineering school. CentraleSupélec, France. 2023. [hal-04074305](https://hal.science/hal-04074305)

HAL Id: hal-04074305

https://hal.science/hal-04074305

Submitted on 19 Apr 2023

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<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

CentraleSupélec

# Estimation of the electricity production of a PV installation using PVGIS

L. Quéval¹,²

¹ University of Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, CNRS, Group of electrical engineering - Paris, 91192, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

² Sorbonne University, CNRS, Group of electrical engineering - Paris, 75252, Paris, France

2023-04-18
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

# I. Objectives
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

Objectives

1) Understand the link between climate and intermittent renewable energy sources

2) Use climate models to assess the potential of solar PV rooftop residential

3) Learn some stuffs about PV (incidentally) and techno-economic analysis
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

II. Resources
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

# Find the location

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

## Google maps: https://www.google.fr/maps

Mode satellite

Enter address: CentraleSupelec, 3 rue Joliot Curie, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette

https://www.google.fr/maps/place/CentraleSup%C3%A9lec/@48.7086882,2.1631571,231m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x47e67745e24d0f51:0x8cd75b7cb52a1f8c!8m2!3d48.709445!4d2.1661629

Right click
on location

Copy by
clicking on the
GPS coord.

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

# Find the location

PVGIS: https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/fr/#PVP

Language = English
(French translation is approx...)

paste GPS to PVGIS
48.708758085942, 2.165121154556238

Remove opacity

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

# Horizon

Cursor:

Selected: 48.709, 2.165

Elevation (m): 166

Use terrain shadows:

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

Calculated horizon

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

Upload horizon file

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

csv

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>

json

Parcourir...

Aucun fichier sélectionné.

GRID CONNECTED

TRACKING PV

OFF-GRID

MONTHLY DATA

DAILY DATA

HOURLY DATA

TMY
<figure><img src="image_19.png" /></figure>

# Horizon

Cursor:

Selected: 48.709, 2.165

Elevation (m): 166

Use terrain shadows:

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>

Calculated horizon

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

Upload horizon file

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

csv

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

json

Parcourir...

Aucun fichier sélectionné.

## Example from PVGIS manual:

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

# Horizon

Cursor:

Selected: 48.709, 2.165

Elevation (m): 166

Use terrain shadows:

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

Calculated horizon

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

Upload horizon file

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

csv

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /></figure>

json

Parcourir...

Aucun fichier sélectionné.

## Example from PVGIS manual:

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

### Trajectoire apparente du Soleil

vue depuis la latitude 47° nord

June solstice

21 mars, équinoxe de printemps
23 septembre, équinoxe d'automne

December
solstice

stelvision.com

illustration Canine Souplet
<figure><img src="image_31.png" /></figure>

# Daily data

<figure><img src="image_32.png" /></figure>

+ lecture notes "Position d'une surface inclinée"
<figure><img src="image_33.png" /></figure>

# Daily data

AVERAGE DAILY IRRADIANCE DATA: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_34.png" /></figure>

Fixed-plane

<figure><img src="image_35.png" /></figure>

Tracking

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /></figure>

Temperature

<figure><img src="image_37.png" /></figure>

Info

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /></figure>

PDF

<figure><img src="image_39.png" /><figcaption>Daily average irradiance</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_40.png" /></figure>

+ lecture notes “Irradiance” & “Air mass”
<figure><img src="image_41.png" /></figure>

AVERAGE DAILY IRRADIANCE DATA: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_42.png" /></figure>

Fixed-plane

<figure><img src="image_43.png" /></figure>

Tracking

<figure><img src="image_44.png" /></figure>

Temperature

<figure><img src="image_45.png" /></figure>

Info

<figure><img src="image_46.png" /></figure>

PDF

<figure><img src="image_47.png" /><figcaption>Outline of horizon</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_48.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_49.png" /></figure>

# Monthly data

<figure><img src="image_50.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_51.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_52.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_53.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_54.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_55.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_56.png" /></figure>

### Monthly solar irradiation estimates

<figure><img src="image_57.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_58.png" /></figure>

### Irradiation
(Click on series to hide)

— Horizontal irradiation
— Direct Normal Irradiation

— Optimal angle irradiation

### Monthly solar irradiation estimates

<figure><img src="image_59.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_60.png" /></figure>

### Irradiation
(Click on series to hide)

— Horizontal irradiation
— Direct Normal Irradiation

— Optimal angle irradiation
<figure><img src="image_61.png" /></figure>

## MONTHLY IRRADIATION DATA: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_62.png" /></figure>

Radiation

<figure><img src="image_63.png" /></figure>

Diffuse/Globa

<figure><img src="image_64.png" /></figure>

Temperature

<figure><img src="image_65.png" /></figure>

Info

<figure><img src="image_66.png" /></figure>

PDF

## Monthly solar irradiation estimates

<figure><img src="image_67.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_68.png" /></figure>

Irradiation
(Click on series to hide)

— Horizontal irradiation

— Direct Normal Irradiation

Optimal angle irradiation

## Monthly solar irradiation estimates

<figure><img src="image_69.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_70.png" /></figure>

Irradiation
(Click on series to hide)

— Horizontal irradiation

— Direct Normal Irradiation

Optimal angle irradiation
<figure><img src="image_71.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_72.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_73.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_74.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_75.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_76.png" /></figure>

Monthly average diffuse to global ratio

<figure><img src="image_77.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_78.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_79.png" /></figure>

# Données mensuelles d'irradiation

MONTHLY IRRADIATION DATA: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_80.png" /></figure>

Radiation

<figure><img src="image_81.png" /></figure>

Diffuse/Globx

<figure><img src="image_82.png" /></figure>

Temperature

<figure><img src="image_83.png" /></figure>

Info

<figure><img src="image_84.png" /></figure>

PDF

Monthly average temperature

<figure><img src="image_85.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_86.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_87.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_88.png" /></figure>

III. PV Technology
<figure><img src="image_89.png" /></figure>

# PV technology

<figure><img src="image_90.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_91.png" /></figure>

# Photovoltaic cell

<figure><img src="image_92.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_93.png" /></figure>

+ lecture notes “Cellules PV”
<figure><img src="image_94.png" /></figure>

# Photovoltaic module

<figure><img src="image_95.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_96.png" /></figure>

+ lecture notes “Module PV” & “Champ PV”
<figure><img src="image_97.png" /></figure>

# IV. Installation
<figure><img src="image_98.png" /></figure>

# Installation

<figure><img src="image_99.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_100.png" /></figure>

# Installed peak PV power

## Installed peak PV power [kWp] - Peak power

<figure><img src="image_101.png" /></figure>

This is the power that the manufacturer declares that the PV array can produce under standard test conditions, which are a constant 1000W of solar irradiance per square meter in the plane of the array, at an array temperature of 25°C. The peak power should be entered in kilowatt-peak (kWp). If you do not know the declared peak power of your modules but instead know the area of the modules (in m²) and the declared conversion efficiency (in percent), you can calculate the peak power as power (kWp) = 1 kW/m² * area * efficiency / 100. See more explanation in the FAQ

$$ 
\begin{aligned}
\text{power [kW]} &= 1 \text{ [kW/m2]} * \text{area [m2]} * \text{efficiency [%]} / 100 \\
&= 1 * (27*0.9) * 18/100 = 4.374 \text{kWp}
\end{aligned}
$$

<figure><img src="image_102.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_103.png" /></figure>

# System loss

## Estimated system losses

<figure><img src="image_104.png" /></figure>

The estimated system losses are all the losses in the system, which cause the power actually delivered to the electricity grid to be lower than the power produced by the PV modules. There are several causes for this loss, such as losses in cables, power inverters, dirt (sometimes snow) on the modules and so on. Over the years the modules also tend to lose a bit of their power, so the average yearly output over the lifetime of the system will be a few percent lower than the output in the first years.

We have given a default value of 14% for the overall losses. If you have a good idea that your value will be different (maybe due to a really high-efficiency inverter) you may reduce this value a little.
<figure><img src="image_105.png" /></figure>

# Mounting position

## Fixed mounting options

Mounting position *

Slope [°]* 35

Azimuth [°]* 0

<figure><img src="image_106.png" /></figure>

Mounting position

For fixed (non-tracking) systems, the way the modules are mounted will have an influence on the temperature of the module, which in turn affects the efficiency. Experiments have shown that if the movement of air behind the modules is restricted, the modules can get considerably hotter (up to 15°C at 1000W/m² of sunlight).

In the application there are two possibilities: *free-standing*, meaning that the modules are mounted on a rack with air flowing freely behind the modules; and *roof added / building-integrated*, which means that the modules are completely built into the structure of the wall or roof of a building, with little or no air movement behind the modules.

Some types of mounting are in between these two extremes, for instance if the modules are mounted on a roof with curved roof tiles, allowing air to move behind the modules. In such cases, the performance will be somewhere between the results of the two calculations that are possible here. For such cases, to be conservative, the roof added / building integrated option can be used.

©Ubbink solar in-roof system

<figure><img src="image_107.png" /><figcaption>Solar in-roof</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_108.png" /><figcaption>Solar on-roof</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_109.png" /><figcaption>Free-standing</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_110.png" /></figure>

# Inclination angle or slope
# Orientation angle or azimuth

<figure><img src="image_111.png" /></figure>

## Orientation angle or azimuth

<figure><img src="image_112.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_113.png" /></figure>

The azimuth, or orientation, is the angle of the PV modules relative to the direction due South. -90° is East, 0° is South and 90° is West.

For some applications the slope and azimuth angles will already be known, for instance if the PV modules are to be built into an existing roof. However, if you have the possibility to choose the inclination and/or orientation, this application can also calculate for you the optimal values for inclination and orientation (assuming fixed angles for the entire year).

+ lecture notes "Position d'une surface inclinée"
<figure><img src="image_114.png" /></figure>

# Installation

<figure><img src="image_115.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_116.png" /></figure>

CentraleSupélec

V. Production
<figure><img src="image_117.png" /></figure>

# Monthly in-plane radiation

## PERFORMANCE OF GRID-CONNECTED PV: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_118.png" /></figure>

PV output

<figure><img src="image_119.png" /></figure>

Radiation

<figure><img src="image_120.png" /></figure>

Info

<figure><img src="image_121.png" /></figure>

PDF

## Summary

<figure><img src="image_122.png" /></figure>

### Provided inputs:

<table><tr><td>Location [Lat/Lon]:</td><td>48.709, 2.165</td></tr><tr><td>Horizon:</td><td>Calculated</td></tr><tr><td>Database used:</td><td>PVGIS-SARAH</td></tr><tr><td>PV technology:</td><td>Crystalline silicon</td></tr><tr><td>PV installed [kWp]:</td><td>4.374</td></tr><tr><td>System loss [%]:</td><td>14</td></tr></table>

### Simulation outputs:

<table><tr><td>Slope angle [°]:</td><td>38 (opt)</td></tr><tr><td>Azimuth angle [°]:</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Yearly PV energy production [kWh]:</td><td>4883.69</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>Yearly in-plane irradiation [kWh/m²]:</td><td>1386.48</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>Year-to-year variability [kWh]:</td><td>208.27</td></tr></table>

### Changes in output due to:

<table><tr><td>Angle of incidence [%]:</td><td>-2.98</td></tr><tr><td>Spectral effects [%]:</td><td>1.66</td></tr><tr><td>Temperature and low irradiance [%]:</td><td>-5.06</td></tr><tr><td>Total loss [%]:</td><td>-19.47</td></tr></table>

## Monthly in-plane irradiation for fixed angle

<figure><img src="image_123.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_124.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_125.png" /></figure>

# Monthly energy output

## PERFORMANCE OF GRID-CONNECTED PV: RESULTS

<figure><img src="image_126.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_127.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_128.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_129.png" /></figure>

## Summary

<figure><img src="image_130.png" /></figure>

### Provided inputs:

<table><tr><td>Location [Lat/Lon]:</td><td>48.709, 2.165</td></tr><tr><td>Horizon:</td><td>Calculated</td></tr><tr><td>Database used:</td><td>PVGIS-SARAH</td></tr><tr><td>PV technology:</td><td>Crystalline silicon</td></tr><tr><td>PV installed [kWp]:</td><td>4.374</td></tr><tr><td>System loss [%]:</td><td>14</td></tr></table>

### Simulation outputs:

<table><tr><td>Slope angle [°]:</td><td>38 (opt)</td></tr><tr><td>Azimuth angle [°]:</td><td>0</td></tr></table>

Yearly PV energy production [kWh]: 4883.69

Yearly in-plane irradiation [kWh/m²]: 1386.48

Year-to-year variability [kWh]: 208.27

### Changes in output due to:

Angle of incidence [%]: -2.98

Spectral effects [%]: 1.66

Temperature and low irradiance [%]: -5.06

Total loss [%]: -19.47

## Monthly energy output from fix-angle PV system

<figure><img src="image_131.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_132.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_133.png" /></figure>

VI. PV electricity price
<figure><img src="image_134.png" /></figure>

# Installation

<figure><img src="image_135.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_136.png" /></figure>

# PV system cost

## PV system cost

<figure><img src="image_137.png" /></figure>

Here you should input the total cost of installing the PV system, including PV system components (PV modules, mounting, inverters, cables etc.) and installation costs (planning, installation....). The choice of currency is up to you, the electricity price calculated by PVGIS will then be the price per kWh of electricity in the same currency you used.
<figure><img src="image_138.png" /></figure>

# PV system cost

## PV system cost

<figure><img src="image_139.png" /></figure>

Here you should input the total cost of installing the PV system, including PV system components (PV modules, mounting, inverters, cables etc.) and installation costs (planning, installation....). The choice of currency is up to you, the electricity price calculated by PVGIS will then be the price per kWh of electricity in the same currency you used.

<figure><img src="image_140.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_141.png" /></figure>

# PV system cost

## PV system cost

Here you should input the total cost of in mounting, inverters, cables etc.) and install the electricity price calculated by PVGIS will

Ask for an invoice !

<figure><img src="image_142.png" /><figcaption>Prix d'une installation photovoltaïque de 3 kWc par In Sun We Trust en 2021 :</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_143.png" /></figure>

# Interest

## Interest rate

<figure><img src="image_144.png" /></figure>

This is the interest rate you pay on any loans needed to finance the PV system. This assumes a fixed interest rate on the loan which will be paid back in yearly installments for the lifetime of the system.
<figure><img src="image_145.png" /></figure>

# Lifetime

## PV system lifetime

<figure><img src="image_146.png" /></figure>

This is the expected lifetime of the PV system in years. This is used to calculate the effective electricity cost for the system. If the PV system happens to last longer the electricity cost will be correspondingly lower
<figure><img src="image_147.png" /></figure>

# PV electricity price

<figure><img src="image_148.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_149.png" /><figcaption>PV electricity cost : 0.150 €/kWh = 150 €/MWh</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_150.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_151.png" /></figure>

# But ... is it worth it ?

<table><thead><tr><td>Puissance de l'installation photovoltaïque</td><td>Montant de l'aide versée pour chaque kWc installé</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>≤ 3 kWc</td><td>380 €</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 9 kWc</td><td>280 €</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 36 kWc</td><td>160 €</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 100 kWc</td><td>80 €</td></tr></tbody></table>

## Prime à l'autoconsommation

<table><thead><tr><td>Puissance de votre installation solaire</td><td>Tarif en vente totale (€/kWh)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>≤ 3 kWc</td><td>0,1779</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 9 kWc</td><td>0,1512</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 36 kWc</td><td>0,1095</td></tr><tr><td>≤ 100 kWc</td><td>0,0952</td></tr></tbody></table>

## Tarif rachat en vente totale

### Source:

Prime à l'autoconsommation >> https://www.insunwetrust.solar/blog/le-solaire-et-vous/autofinancement-panneau-solaire/

Tarif de rachat en vente totale >> https://www.insunwetrust.solar/blog/le-solaire-et-vous/tarif-rachat-photovoltaique/
<figure><img src="image_152.png" /></figure>

CentraleSupélec

# Conclusion
<figure><img src="image_153.png" /></figure>

Conclusion

1) Understand the link between climate and intermittent renewable energy sources

2) Use climate models to assess the potential of solar PV rooftop residential

3) Learn some stuffs about PV (incidentally) and techno-economic analysis