# Ballots and Guns: Is Compliance with Swiss Military Service Correlated with Extensive Use of Initiative Rights?

Clément Anne, Pierre Mandon

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Clément Anne, Pierre Mandon. Ballots and Guns: Is Compliance with Swiss Military Service Correlated with Extensive Use of Initiative Rights?. 2025. hal-05075739

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Centre d'Études
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WORKING PAPER

No. 2025/3

Ballots and Guns:
Is Compliance with Swiss Military
Service Correlated with Extensive
Use of Initiative Rights?

Clément Anne
Pierre Mandon
## Cite this working paper

Anne, C., Mandon, P. "Ballots and Guns: Is Compliance with Swiss Military Service Correlated with Extensive Use of Initiative Rights?", CERDI Working Papers, 2025/3, CERDI.

## The authors

Clément Anne

Statistician, Data Scientist,
Institut National de la Jeunesse et de
l'Education Populaire (INJEP-MEDES),
95 Av. de France, 75013 Paris, France.
Email: clement.anne90@gmail.com

Pierre Mandon

Country Economist, World Bank Group,
Research Fellow at Université Clermont
Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, CERDI,
F-63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
Email: pmandon@worldbank.org
(Corresponding author)

## Disclaimer

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of INJEP-MEDES.

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. Specifically, they do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Ce travail a bénéficié d'une aide de l'État français gérée par l'Agence Nationale de la Recherche au titre du programme "France 2030" portant la référence "ANR-16-IDEX-0001".

This work was supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche of the French government through the program "France 2030" "ANR-16-IDEX-0001".

CERDI Working Papers are available online at: https://tinyurl.com/2xwfzw8s

Director of Publication: Simone Bertoli

Editor: Catherine Araujo Bonjean

Publisher: Marie Dussol

ISSN: 2114 - 7957

### Disclaimer

Working papers are not subject to peer review; they constitute research in progress. Responsibility for the contents and opinions expressed in the working papers rests solely with the authors. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should be addressed to the authors.
**Abstract**

This article investigates the potential correlation between compliance with military service and the extensive use of initiative rights in Switzerland. While political rights are often believed to influence civic duties, this study examines whether such a relationship exists in the Swiss context, where both direct democracy and a citizen army are prominent. Based on multivariate regressions using panel data from 26 cantons between 2010 and 2022, we do not find significant correlations between the extensive use of initiative rights and effective fitness for military service once linguistic and cultural factors are controlled for. Our expanded analysis reveals that German-speaking cantons consistently show higher military service fitness rates, particularly those that integrated earlier into the Old Swiss Confederacy. Additionally, we find that religious composition and Swiss citizenship percentage are strongly associated with military service compliance. These findings suggest that civic duties, specifically military service obligations, are closely linked to cultural heterogeneities related to the tradition of classical republicanism rather than extended political rights per se.

**Keywords**

Military Service; initiative rights; civic duty; Switzerland; direct democracy; cultural heterogeneity; classical republicanism.

**JEL codes**

D72, H56, Z13, N44.
Introduction

Switzerland's unique blend of direct democracy and compulsory military service provides a fertile ground for studying the relationship between political rights and civic duties. The Swiss initiative system allows citizens to propose and vote on legislation directly, fostering a high level of political engagement. This study aims to explore whether the extensive use of initiative rights correlates with effective compliance to mandatory military service among Swiss men.

Political rights theoretically promote civic responsibility (Benz and Stutzer, 2004), but it remains unclear if this extends to compliance with national duties such as military service. Although military service (or the alternative civilian service) is supposed to be mandatory for young men in Switzerland according to Article 59 of Federal Constitution of the Swiss Confederation,<fnref n="1" /> in practice, some men can simply declare themselves unfit for military service to avoid it, and the phenomenon can be of large magnitude in some cantons (Juilland, 2012).

Based on multivariate regressions on an unbalanced sample of the 26 cantons between 2010-22, we don't find evidence of a significant correlation between the extensive use of popular initiatives at the cantonal level and the military service fitness rate once cultural and linguistic factors are controlled for. By contrast, the military service fitness rate is consistently higher in German-speaking cantons (Figure 1), which also integrated earlier into the Old Swiss Confederacy following the "Eidgenossenschaft" (foundational act of 1291).

Our expanded analysis further reveals that religious characteristics and citizenship composition are strongly associated with military service compliance. We find a strong negative correlation between non-religious population percentage and fitness rates, suggesting that traditional values associated with religious communities may foster greater commitment to civic duties. Similarly, there is a positive association with Swiss citizenship percentage, indicating that national identity plays an important role in military service compliance.

Previous papers have already highlighted how heterogeneous cultural preferences affect policy outcomes at the infranational level (Alt and Lowry, 2000; Dippel, 2014). For instance, Pujol and Weber (2003) find that linguistic differences within the Swiss Confederation are the main factors explaining fiscal preferences. Specifically, German-speaking cantons were found to be more fiscally conservative than the "Latin" cantons (French and Italian-speaking cantons).

<footnote n="1">¹ https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/eli/cc/1999/404/en. Article 59: "1 Every Swiss man is required to do military service. Alternative civilian service shall be provided for by law. 2 Military service is voluntary for Swiss women. 3 Any Swiss man who does not do military or alternative service is liable to pay a tax. This tax is levied by the Confederation and assessed and collected by the Cantons. 4 The Confederation shall legislate for fair compensation for loss of income. 5 Persons who suffer damage to their health or lose their lives while doing military or alternative civilian service are entitled to appropriate support from the Confederation, whether for themselves or for their next of kin."</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1. Percentage of military service fitness according to cantonal linguistic particularities</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors' construction, based on data from the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS). Notes: The spread shows annual variation in cantonal averages for each linguistic group.

The present paper is organized as follows. The first section discusses the institutional background in Switzerland, the second section elaborates on the data and methodology, the third section displays the empirical results, and the last section concludes.

# Institutional settings

## Direct democracy and initiative in Switzerland

Switzerland is globally renowned for its robust system of direct democracy, which empowers citizens to participate actively in their country's legislative process (Matsusaka, 2020). This system has deep historical roots and has evolved significantly over centuries. The origins of Swiss direct democracy can be traced back to the medieval period, particularly in the rural alpine communities where local assemblies,<fnref n="2" /> known as "Landsgemeinde," were established. These assemblies allowed all male citizens to gather annually and vote on laws, budgets, and other important matters (Mandon, 2020). The first documented Landsgemeinde dates back to the late XIIIᵗʰ century in the canton of Uri. The Swiss Confederation, formed in the late Middle Ages as an alliance of independent cantons, gradually adopted more democratic practices. The Swiss Reformation in the XVIᵗʰ century and the subsequent centuries saw the strengthening of local self-governance and participatory decision-making processes. The modern system of Swiss direct democracy began to take shape in the XIXᵗʰ century. The Federal Constitution of 1848 established Switzerland as a federal state and included provisions for referenda. Citizens gained the right to demand a referendum on federal laws if enough signatures were collected. This period also saw the introduction of the initiative process, allowing citizens to propose amendments to the constitution.

The XXᵗʰ century saw the expansion and refinement of direct democratic tools. The 1891 amendment to the Federal Constitution formally introduced the initiative process at the federal

<footnote n="2">² These local assemblies are referred as town meetings in the United States.</footnote>
level, enabling citizens to propose changes to the constitution. Over the decades, these
mechanisms have been used extensively, reflecting the Swiss populace's active engagement in
politics and public administration. Nowadays, Switzerland employs a wide range of direct
democracy tools, including advisory, mandatory, optional, and recall referendums, town
meetings/local assemblies, and the popular initiative.

The popular initiative in Switzerland operates at both federal and cantonal levels, with specific procedures and requirements for each. At the cantonal level, initiatives allow citizens to propose new laws or changes to existing legislation within their canton. The thresholds for signature collection and the scope of initiative rights vary between cantons, reflecting their individual constitutional frameworks and democratic traditions. Some cantons, particularly German-speaking ones, have more extensive initiative rights and lower thresholds, facilitating greater direct citizen participation in local governance.

The popular initiative allows Swiss citizens to propose changes to the federal constitution. Like local assemblies, and contrary to referendums, initiatives allow voters to make proposals, removing the government's monopoly control over the political agenda (Matsusaka, 1995; 2018). Unlike local assemblies, however, the initiative is easily scalable, making it the most advanced (or extreme) direct democracy tool. Here's how it works:

1. For a popular initiative to be put to a vote, its proponents must collect 100,000 valid signatures from eligible voters within 18 months. This requirement ensures that the initiative has a substantial level of support before it can proceed.

2. Once the signatures are collected, the initiative is submitted to the Federal Chancellery for verification. The Federal Council (the executive branch) then examines the initiative and can provide a recommendation to the Federal Assembly (the legislative branch).

3. The Federal Assembly debates the initiative and can either support it, reject it, or propose a counterproposal. The counterproposal is an alternative to the original initiative, often aimed at addressing the same issue in a different manner.

4. Regardless of the Federal Assembly's stance, the initiative is put to a nationwide vote. Swiss voters decide whether to accept or reject the proposed constitutional amendment. If a counterproposal is presented, voters may also choose between the original initiative, the counterproposal, or reject both.

5. For a popular initiative to be accepted, it must receive a double majority: a majority of the popular vote and a majority of the cantons (the cantonal majority is determined by the majority vote within each canton).

## Military service in Switzerland

Switzerland's military tradition is as deeply rooted as its commitment to direct democracy. The country's approach to defense and military service has evolved over centuries, reflecting its historical context and geopolitical realities. The concept of citizen-soldiers dates back to the early days of the Swiss Confederation. The Swiss cantons, seeking to maintain their autonomy and defend against external threats, relied on militias composed of ordinary citizens. These
militias were crucial in notable victories, such as the Battle of Morgarten in 1315 and the Battle of Sempach in 1386, where Swiss forces successfully defended their territories against Habsburg aggression. During the Renaissance and early modern periods, Swiss soldiers gained a reputation as formidable mercenaries, serving in various European armies. The Swiss Guard, established in 1506, still serves as the personal bodyguard of the Pope in the Vatican. The establishment of the modern Swiss state in the mid-XIXth century brought significant changes to military organization (Chollet, 2016). The Federal Constitution of 1848 laid the foundation for a unified Swiss military, replacing the cantonal militias with a federal army. This period marked the beginning of compulsory military service for Swiss men, a system designed to ensure that Switzerland could maintain a credible defense force despite its relatively small population.

Throughout the XXth century, Switzerland maintained its policy of armed neutrality, which necessitated a well-trained and prepared citizen/militia army. World War I and World War II reinforced the importance of this policy, as Switzerland mobilized its forces to defend its neutrality. The Swiss military's organizational structure and training methods evolved to adapt to new technological and strategic realities. Nowadays, Swiss military service is theoretically mandatory for all able-bodied male citizens. Upon reaching the age of 18, men are required to undergo military training and serve for several years in various capacities. Alternative civil service options are available for those who object to military service on moral or religious grounds. Compliance with military service obligations is generally high, though varying levels of adherence across different cantons (Juilland, 2012) raise questions about the underlying factors influencing compliance.

## One missing link: the tradition of civic republicanism in Switzerland

As detailed in Mandon (2020), the genesis of civic republicanism is rooted in Aristotle's fundamental anthropological postulate that man is a social animal, naturally inclined to live in society. Historian and anthropologist Jean-Pierre Vernant (1962) highlights that for Aristotle, the Greek city-state or "polis" is akin to an extended family, consisting of villages made up of individual households "oikos". This notion emphasizes the "similarity" among citizens who metaphorically share the same table, fostering a sense of brotherhood and communal identity. This shared identity leads to political equality or "isonomy" among citizens, resulting in a government of free and equal men, characterized by direct democracy and the selection of officials by lot.

Historically, the isonomy of citizens is linked to the hoplite revolution (Vernant, 1962). In the mid-VIIth century BCE, changes in armament and combat techniques challenged the oligarchic/aristocratic order associated with cavalry "hippeis". The emergence of the heavily armed hoplite, fighting in close formation, the "phalanx", undermined the military privileges of the hippeis and established a new form of egalitarianism. This military egalitarianism legitimized political equality among citizens, as the hoplite soldier-citizen embodied a new form of collective combat over individual prowess. Consequently, the hoplite revolution introduced a military parallel to the citizen body, legitimizing the political isonomy of Athens, which persisted alongside a vertical caste society (a restrained body of equal citizens dominating the rest of society).
In summary, Aristotle's postulate of man as a social animal underpins the concept of the public realm, the "res publica" and public interest, primarily expressed through the defense and perpetuation of the city-states. In classical Athens, this translated into political equality among citizens, stemming from the hoplite revolution. Civic republicanism, therefore, is fundamentally a philosophy of collective survival and perseverance.

It is noteworthy that Switzerland, renowned for its unparalleled practice of direct democracy (alongside perhaps the small state of Liechtenstein) for over a century and a half, also provides the most tangible evidence of the legacy of civic republicanism and its associated anthropology. This is demonstrated by the implementation of the citizen army alongside extensive direct democracy features.<fnref n="3" /> Consequently, compliance with military service could be influenced directly by the tradition of civic republicanism, which may vary between cantons, in addition to, or rather the extensive use of political rights in the form of popular initiatives.

## Data and methodology

Annual cantonal data on (un)fitness to military and civic/protection services are taken from the official website of the Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS) from 2010 to 2022.<fnref n="4" /> Data on initiative use, demographics, economic indicators, and language distributions are sourced from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and the Swiss Centre for Democracy Studies (C2D). Our dataset comprises information from all 26 Swiss cantons over the 2010-22 period, forming an unbalanced panel due to some missing observations.

<footnote n="3">³ A third pivotal aspect of the civic republican tradition is the practice of collegial government. In Switzerland, the collegial government is embodied by the Federal Council, consisting of seven members elected by the Federal Assembly. Each Federal Councilor heads a department and decisions are made collectively, reflecting the consensus-driven nature of Swiss politics. This system theoretically ensures political stability by accommodating various political parties and fostering cooperation in policymaking and administration.</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴ Link to the official website: https://www.vbs.admin.ch/en.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2. Road distance from military recruitment centers</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors' construction, based on Open Street Map.

To test for the determinants of cantonal fitness for military service, we rely on the following multivariate model specification, leveraging the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator over the period 2010-22:

$$y_{i,t} = \alpha + \beta Init_{i,t} + \gamma Ling_{i,t} + \sum_{k} \delta_{k} X_{k,i,t} + \varepsilon_{i,t} \quad (1)$$

where $y_{i,t}$ refers to the fitness ratio to military service for canton i at year t, $Init_{i,t}$ refers to the number of popular initiatives per canton/year (de facto use and practice of popular initiative).<fnref n="5" /> $Ling_{i,t}$ indicates if German is the main spoken language of the canton i (time-invariant variable). Similar to Pujol and Weber (2003), these serve as proxies for infranational cultural preferences. $X_{k,i,t}$ is the vector of k covariates, including GDP per capita, unemployment rate, population density, and share of young population (18-30 years) taken from the FSO, and $\varepsilon_{i,t}$ is the idiosyncratic error term for canton i at year t.

We augment our base model by introducing additional variables to account for potential confounding factors. These include the percentage of non-religious population, Swiss citizenship rate, and historical period of joining the Swiss Confederacy. This approach allows us to test whether the observed differences in military service fitness rates are primarily explained by linguistic factors or if these merely proxy for deeper cultural, demographic, or historical characteristics. For the historical analysis, we categorize cantons into five groups

<footnote n="5">⁵ For the two cantons of Appenzell Innerrhoden and Glarus, which still practice the Landsgemeinde at the cantonal level, we automatically assign the maximum value of initiative use per year. Indeed, the Landsgemeinde can be considered the 'purest' form of direct democracy, where citizens gather annually in a public space under the open sky to vote on a series of ballot questions. Alternatively, we assign these two cantons the yearly average value of initiative practice per year.</footnote>
based on when they joined the confederation: Founding (1291), Early (1332-1400), Medieval (1401-1600), Modern (1800s), and Recent (1979).

# Empirical Results

## Descriptive statistics

Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for our main variables of interest, broken down by linguistic groups. The data reveals significant differences between German-speaking, French-speaking, and Italian-speaking cantons across several dimensions.

<table><caption>Table 1: Descriptive statistics by language group, 2010-22</caption><thead><tr><td>Variable</td><td>German-speaking Cantons</td><td>French-speaking Cantons</td><td>Italian-speaking Canton (Ticino)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Military service fitness rate (%)</td><td>72.2 (48.8 - 91.9)</td><td>60.4 (47.3 - 72.2)</td><td>65.6 (59.2 - 68.5)</td></tr><tr><td>Number of initiatives</td><td>2.3 (0.0 - 23.0)</td><td>0.5 (0.0 - 4.0)</td><td>0.9 (0.0 - 3.0)</td></tr><tr><td>GDP per capita (CHF)</td><td>75,104 (48,047 - 196,189)</td><td>73,334 (53,600 - 108,790)</td><td>84,296 (80,201 - 87,936)</td></tr><tr><td>Unemployment rate (%)</td><td>2.1 (0.7 - 4.2)</td><td>4.2 (2.1 - 6.6)</td><td>3.7 (2.8 - 4.7)</td></tr><tr><td>Share of young population (18-30) (%)</td><td>15.9 (13.2 - 18.2)</td><td>16.7 (15.4 - 17.5)</td><td>13.8 (13.6 - 13.9)</td></tr><tr><td>Non-religious population (%)</td><td>21.8 (9.0 - 35.0)</td><td>26.8 (20.0 - 35.0)</td><td>20.3 (19.0 - 21.5)</td></tr><tr><td>Swiss citizenship percentage (%)</td><td>79.8 (68.0 - 92.0)</td><td>73.9 (60.0 - 78.0)</td><td>72.6 (71.0 - 74.0)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Authors' calculations based on data from the DDPS, FSO, and C2D. Note: Mean indicator in bold, min and max between parentheses.

Several patterns emerge from these statistics. First, the average military service fitness rate is substantially higher in German-speaking cantons (72.2%) compared to French-speaking (60.4%) and Italian-speaking cantons (65.6%). The gap of nearly 12 percentage points between German and French-speaking cantons is particularly notable.

Second, German-speaking cantons make considerably more use of initiative rights, with an average of 2.3 initiatives per year compared to just 0.5 in French-speaking and 0.9 in Italian-speaking cantons. This substantial difference (more than four times higher) indicates a stronger tradition of direct democratic participation in German-speaking regions.

Third, while GDP per capita is relatively similar across language groups (with Italian-speaking Ticino having the highest average), unemployment rates show significant disparities. French-speaking cantons have an average unemployment rate of 4.2%, nearly twice as high as German-speaking cantons (2.1%).

Fourth, the non-religious population percentage is highest in French-speaking cantons (26.8%) compared to German-speaking (21.8%) and Italian-speaking cantons (20.3%), supporting the hypothesis that cultural differences in secularization may influence civic engagement.
Finally, the Swiss citizenship percentage is highest in German-speaking cantons (79.8%), compared to French-speaking (73.9%) and Italian-speaking cantons (72.6%), suggesting potential differences in national identity strength across linguistic regions.

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3. Average military service fitness rates by canton, 2010-22</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors' construction, based on data from the DDPS. Notes: Cantons ordered by their mean military service fitness rate (diamond shape with label value) over 2010-22.
Regression analysis

Table 2 presents the results of our regression analysis, examining the relationship between military service fitness rates, initiative use, and various linguistic, cultural, and historical factors.

<table><caption>Table 2: Determinants of military service fitness rate (OLS regression results)</caption><thead><tr><th>Variable</th><th>Model 1</th><th>Model 2</th><th>Model 3</th><th>Model 4</th><th>Model 5</th><th>Model 6</th><th>Model 7</th><th>Model 8</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Intercept</td><td>0.646***<br>(0.010)</td><td>0.560***<br>(0.012)</td><td>0.673***<br>(0.015)</td><td>0.042<br>(0.107)</td><td>0.580***<br>(0.013)</td><td>0.387***<br>(0.048)</td><td>0.599***<br>(0.009)</td><td>0.037<br>(0.108)</td></tr><tr><td>Initiative use</td><td>0.005*<br>(0.003)</td><td>0.002<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.002<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.001)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.001)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.001)</td></tr><tr><td>German language (dummy)</td><td></td><td>0.162***<br>(0.015)</td><td>0.114***<br>(0.016)</td><td>0.113***<br>(0.017)</td><td></td><td>0.093***<br>(0.015)</td><td></td><td>0.083***<br>(0.015)</td></tr><tr><td>Non-religious percentage</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.387***<br>(0.073)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.275***<br>(0.068)</td><td>-0.239***<br>(0.067)</td></tr><tr><td>Swiss citizenship percentage</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.337***<br>(0.049)</td><td></td><td>0.235***<br>(0.064)</td><td></td><td>0.207***<br>(0.062)</td></tr><tr><td>Founding canton (1291)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.185***<br>(0.025)</td><td></td><td>0.182***<br>(0.024)</td><td>0.071***<br>(0.021)</td></tr><tr><td>Early canton (1332-1400)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.147***<br>(0.024)</td><td></td><td>0.145***<br>(0.023)</td><td>0.059***<br>(0.020)</td></tr><tr><td>Medieval canton (1401-1600)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.125***<br>(0.022)</td><td></td><td>0.108***<br>(0.021)</td><td>0.047***<br>(0.019)</td></tr><tr><td>German-speaking founding canton</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.190***<br>(0.025)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Unemployment rate</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.854**<br>(0.389)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.837**<br>(0.372)</td></tr><tr><td>Log GDP per capita</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.028**<br>(0.012)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.026**<br>(0.012)</td></tr><tr><td>Population density</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.000*<br>(0.000)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.000*<br>(0.000)</td></tr><tr><td>Young population share</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.183<br>(0.331)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.175<br>(0.328)</td></tr><tr><td>Distance to recruitment center</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.088**<br>(0.039)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.084**<br>(0.037)</td></tr><tr><td>Adjusted R-squared</td><td>0.015</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.457</td><td>0.499</td><td>0.399</td><td>0.613</td><td>0.421</td><td>0.705</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Authors' calculations. Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

The regression results reveal several important findings. First, in Model 1, which includes only initiative use as an explanatory variable, we find a small positive and marginally significant association between initiative use and military service fitness rates. However, this relationship becomes statistically insignificant once linguistic, cultural, or historical factors are controlled for in Models 2-8. It disappears when clustering at the cantonal level (see Table A.1, in Appendix).
Second, the German language variable shows a strong and highly significant positive association with military service fitness rates across all models that include it. In Model 2, German-speaking cantons have military service fitness rates that are approximately 16.2 percentage points higher than non-German-speaking cantons, all else equal. This effect remains robust even when controlling for additional cultural and historical factors, though its magnitude decreases somewhat in the more comprehensive models.

Third, Models 3 and 6-8 reveal a strong negative relationship between the percentage of non-religious population and military service fitness rates. In Model 3, a one percentage point increase in the non-religious population is associated with a 0.39 percentage point decrease in the military service fitness rate, suggesting that religious values may contribute to a stronger sense of civic duty.

Fourth, Models 4 and 6-8 demonstrate a positive relationship between Swiss citizenship percentage and military service fitness rates. In Model 4, a one percentage point increase in the Swiss citizenship percentage is associated with a 0.36 percentage point increase in the fitness rate, indicating that national identity plays an important role in compliance with military service.

Fifth, Models 5-8 show that historical factors, particularly whether a canton was a founding member of the Swiss Confederation, have a significant impact on military service fitness rates. Founding cantons (1291) show fitness rates that are 18.5 percentage points higher than modern cantons (the reference category), with early cantons (1332-1400) and medieval cantons (1401-1600) also showing significantly higher rates.

The interaction model (Model 7) reveals that German-speaking founding cantons have particularly high military service fitness rates, suggesting a combined effect of linguistic and historical factors. This supports the hypothesis that the tradition of civic republicanism may be most deeply rooted in these regions.

Finally, the full model (Model 8) includes all relevant variables and controls, achieving an adjusted R-squared of 0.673, which indicates that these factors together explain a substantial portion of the variation in military service fitness rates across Swiss cantons. The unemployment rate shows a significant negative association with fitness rates, suggesting that economic conditions may also influence compliance with military service obligations.

Models 4 and 8 incorporate additional control variables, including the distance to military recruitment centers. We find that this geographic factor has a significant negative association with military service fitness rates, with cantons located farther from recruitment centers showing lower fitness rates. Specifically, a 10-percentage point increase in the population living more than 60 minutes from a recruitment center is associated with approximately a 0.9 percentage point decrease in military fitness rates. This suggests that logistical considerations and geographic accessibility play a role in military service compliance. The log of GDP per capita shows a positive and statistically significant relationship with military service fitness rates. This suggests that higher economic development is associated with greater military service compliance, with a 10% increase in GDP per capita corresponding to approximately a
modest 0.3 percentage point increase in fitness rates. Population density also shows a small but statistically significant negative effect, while the share of young population does not have statistically significant effects on military service fitness rates. However, apart from distance to recruitment centers, and unemployment rates, the statistical significance of these covariates vanishes when clustering standard errors at the cantonal level (Table A.1, in Appendix).

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4. Relationship between initiative use and military service fitness rate by language group</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors' construction, based on data from the DDPS.

Figure 4 illustrates the relationship between initiative use and military service fitness rates, with cantons grouped by main language. The scatter plot uses a square root transformation of the initiative use axis to better visualize the relationship and includes statistical ellipses to highlight the clustering by language group. The visualization demonstrates that while there is no clear linear relationship between initiative use and military service fitness rates within language groups, there is a distinct clustering by language. German-speaking cantons generally show both higher initiative use and higher military service fitness rates, but the correlation within this group is weak.
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5. Relationship between initiative use and mean military service fitness rate by language group</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors' construction, based on data from the DDPS.

Figure 5 presents the relationship between canton founding period, language group, and military service fitness rates. The visualization clearly shows that founding cantons (1291) have the highest fitness rates (76.5%), followed by early-joining cantons (73.0%), and medieval cantons (70.8%). Modern and recent cantons show substantially lower fitness rates (66.9% and 58.5%, respectively). Within each historical period, German-speaking cantons consistently display higher fitness rates than French or Italian-speaking cantons of the same period, suggesting that both linguistic and historical factors contribute to military service compliance.

Additionally, our analysis of annual averages indicates an increasing trend in military service fitness rates from 2010 to 2022, with rates rising from 69.4% to 72.3%. This suggests that policy changes or societal shifts over this period may have influenced compliance with military service obligations across cantons.
Conclusion

This study examined the relationship between the extensive use of initiative rights and
compliance with military service in Switzerland, using data from the 26 Swiss cantons over the
period 2010-22. Our findings reveal that while there is a small positive correlation between
initiative use and military service fitness rates, this relationship disappears once linguistic,
cultural, and historical factors are accounted for.

Instead, we find strong evidence that cultural, linguistic, religious, and historical factors are the
primary determinants of military service compliance. German-speaking cantons consistently
display higher military service fitness rates, even after controlling for economic factors,
population characteristics, and initiative use. This effect is particularly pronounced in cantons
that were founding or early members of the Swiss Confederation.

Furthermore, our expanded analysis reveals that religious characteristics and citizenship
composition play important roles in explaining military service compliance. We find a strong
negative correlation between non-religious population percentage and fitness rates, suggesting
that traditional values associated with religious communities may foster greater commitment
to civic duties. Similarly, there is a positive association with Swiss citizenship percentage,
indicating that national identity is an important factor in military service compliance.

These results suggest that civic duties, specifically military service compliance, are more
closely tied to cultural heterogeneities related to the tradition of classical republicanism than to
the extensive use of political rights per se. The historical roots of Swiss federalism, particularly
the early integration of German-speaking cantons into the Old Swiss Confederacy following
the "Eidgenossenschaft," appear to have fostered a stronger sense of civic duty in these regions.

Our findings contribute to the broader literature on the determinants of civic engagement and
compliance with civic duties. They highlight the importance of considering historical, cultural,
and demographic factors in understanding variations in civic behavior across different regions
within the same country. Further research could explore the mechanisms through which these
cultural differences translate into variations in military service compliance, potentially
examining individual-level data on attitudes toward civic duties and military service across
different linguistic regions of Switzerland.
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# Appendix

<table><caption>Table A.1: Determinants of military service fitness rate (OLS regression results, clustering cantonal level)</caption><thead><tr><th>Variable</th><th>Model 1</th><th>Model 2</th><th>Model 3</th><th>Model 4</th><th>Model 5</th><th>Model 6</th><th>Model 7</th><th>Model 8</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Intercept</td><td>0.646***<br>(0.023)</td><td>0.560***<br>(0.034)</td><td>0.673***<br>(0.035)</td><td>0.042<br>(0.168)</td><td>0.580***<br>(0.035)</td><td>0.387***<br>(0.091)</td><td>0.599***<br>(0.024)</td><td>0.037<br>(0.176)</td></tr><tr><td>Initiative use</td><td>0.005<br>(0.004)</td><td>0.002<br>(0.003)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.003)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.003)</td><td>0.002<br>(0.003)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.002)</td><td>0.001<br>(0.002)</td></tr><tr><td>German language (dummy)</td><td></td><td>0.162***<br>(0.034)</td><td>0.114**<br>(0.035)</td><td>0.113**<br>(0.034)</td><td></td><td>0.093**<br>(0.031)</td><td></td><td>0.083**<br>(0.031)</td></tr><tr><td>Non-religious percentage</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.387**<br>(0.133)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.275**<br>(0.102)</td><td>-0.239**<br>(0.092)</td></tr><tr><td>Swiss citizenship percentage</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.337**<br>(0.118)</td><td></td><td>0.235**<br>(0.091)</td><td></td><td>0.207**<br>(0.089)</td></tr><tr><td>Founding canton (1291)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.185***<br>(0.051)</td><td></td><td>0.182***<br>(0.045)</td><td>0.071*<br>(0.036)</td></tr><tr><td>Early canton (1332-1400)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.147**<br>(0.052)</td><td></td><td>0.145**<br>(0.049)</td><td>0.059*<br>(0.034)</td></tr><tr><td>Medieval canton (1401-1600)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.125**<br>(0.045)</td><td></td><td>0.108**<br>(0.041)</td><td>0.047*<br>(0.028)</td></tr><tr><td>German-speaking founding canton</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.190***<br>(0.047)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Unemployment rate</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.854*<br>(0.423)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.837*<br>(0.409)</td></tr><tr><td>Log GDP per capita</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.028<br>(0.019)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.026<br>(0.018)</td></tr><tr><td>Population density</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.000<br>(0.000)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.000<br>(0.000)</td></tr><tr><td>Young population share</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.183<br>(0.457)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.175<br>(0.442)</td></tr><tr><td>Distance to recruitment center</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.088*<br>(0.049)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.084*<br>(0.045)</td></tr><tr><td>Adjusted R-squared</td><td>0.015</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.457</td><td>0.499</td><td>0.399</td><td>0.613</td><td>0.421</td><td>0.705</td></tr><tr><td>Observations</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td><td>255</td></tr><tr><td>Number of cantons</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>26</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Authors' calculations. Notes: Standard errors clustered at cantonal level in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.