ownership of cars and its use decline. Assumptions for scenario one is that the use of both bicycles and buses is increased by a factor 5, and use of car is decreased by the corresponding amount of p.km.

For the scenario with low-rate ownership, car ownership is decreased approximately by a factor 5 and the use of car by a factor close to 4.5. The loss of travel by car is compensated by the increase of bus use by a factor 5 and a lot more of active mobility share in mobility.

The results of these two scenarios are drastically different. Indeed, while the amount of material required for the scenario with high level of car ownership is 14% higher than the base case of 2015, the scenario with low level of car ownership allows to divide by a factor close to 2.6 the material requirements. Impacts of material manufactures such as water use and GHG and PM10 emissions follow the same trend: they are proportional to the quantity of materials required. However, due to a different ownership of cars, direct emissions are not the same since less cars are available to emit which implies increased carpooling at constant car travel demand. Therefore, the scenario with high modal share of public transport and high car ownership already decreases by a factor of around 2 direct emissions due to the greater efficiency of the bus in terms of emissions per passenger. But the second scenario goes further by diminishing direct GHG and PM10 emissions by a factor of almost 10 compared to the reference scenario. Thus, the rate of ownership of personal vehicles, as well as their use, is a determining factor both for the amount of material used and for direct emissions.

<table><caption>Table IV. Results of the different scenarios</caption><thead><tr><th></th><th>Total weight of vehicles (t)</th><th>Mass of the 3 metals (t)</th><th>Mass of the 3 metals in Li-ion batteries (t)</th><th>Total water used for all metals (t)</th><th>Total GHG emitted by metals manufacture (t)</th><th>Total GHG emitted in usage phase (t)</th><th>Total PM10 emitted in usage phase (t)</th><th>Total PM10 emitted by metals manufacture (t)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Reference scenario</td><td>79176</td><td>56239</td><td>47</td><td>1203824</td><td>122487</td><td>1148366</td><td>213</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Electrified scenario</td><td>94765</td><td>46937</td><td>5147</td><td>1971429</td><td>138767</td><td>171677</td><td>75</td><td>74</td></tr><tr><td>High reduction in mass of cars</td><td>49088</td><td>26151</td><td>47</td><td>2124817</td><td>97749</td><td>1148366</td><td>213</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>High share of bus and bicycle hpva</td><td>90005</td><td>64986</td><td>48</td><td>1458851</td><td>143282</td><td>579211</td><td>107</td><td>85</td></tr><tr><td>High share of bus and bicycle lpvb</td><td>30310</td><td>22807</td><td>11</td><td>588523</td><td>52251</td><td>123498</td><td>23</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Low impact scenario</td><td>15064</td><td>10132</td><td>191</td><td>348622</td><td>25819</td><td>708</td><td>1</td><td>15</td></tr></tbody></table>

The last scenario, called the “low impact” scenario, pushes the use of buses and bicycles to the extreme, while reducing the global travel demand per capita. It is assumed that no one has a personal vehicle anymore, that the travel demand is halved and fulfilled to 90% by buses and that every inhabitant has a bicycle. Electrification of buses is 100% and the age of vehicles before being bought back is increased by 5 years for buses and 10 for bicycles. This scenario is roughly a lower limit of what can be done in terms of impacts on all aspects of materials, water use and emissions. The material and indirect impacts are divided by a factor more than 5 and direct emissions of GHG are divided by close to 4 orders of magnitude.

## V. CONCLUSION

To elaborate a systemic participatory tool on urban mobility, a study of the modelling methodology related to the materials requirements of the urban transport system of Vienna by Gassner et. al, (2021) has been conducted. The objective and assumptions for the construction of our prototype aiming at raising awareness of some systemic problems of urban mobility has then been presented. Finally, first results of the prototype have been highlighted.

More precisely, the results have shown that a main parameter for reducing the impact of urban mobility is personal vehicle ownership, and that changing the modal share is not enough to have a beneficial effect on all indirect impacts. This must be combined with a reduction in vehicle mass, an extension of vehicle life and a reduction in the number of vehicles on the road. In addition, the prototype has shown that general trend towards electrification can indeed drastically reduce GHG and PM10 emissions in France, but poses more significant material and water use problems.

Several perspectives exist for the continuation of this work. Firstly, a technical improvement of the prototype is envisaged on several points to arrive at a more sophisticated tool. Secondly, multi-criteria assessment with social and economic fields is also envisaged, as environmental assessment alone is far from fully reflecting the situation. This can be seen in particular in the scenario of a drastic reduction of vehicles, which does not reflect the general
trends and individual aspirations of our current society. Thirdly, the concrete use of this tool in a participative
framework is envisaged with urban actors in real conditions.

The long-term objective of the authors is to generalize this approach to all sectors of the economy and to pinpoint
systemic interactions between sectors and environmental pressures.

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Annex 14 - Results displayed by the prototype regarding alternatives designed

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Environmental impacts displayed by the prototype for the reference scenario of the city of Lyon in 2015 and for 3 urban mobility alternatives.
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