# Roadmap to COP28

Yousra Abourabi

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# Roadmap to COP28

KEY TAKEAWAYS AND MAIN OUTCOMES OF
COP27 AND THE ROAD TO COP28

YOUSRA ABOURABI
## CONTENT

<table><tr><td>Introduction</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Methodology</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>I. Africa's agency in global climate governance: an overview</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>A. historical and evolving role in climate global governance</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>The shift towards unity: advancing Africa's collective interests</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Africa's climate diplomacy: key institutions and leadership milestones</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>African led climate initiatives and achievements</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>B. Africa's climate challenges, vulnerability and adaptation priorities</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Africa's unique climate challenges and vulnerability factors</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Climate change patterns and trends</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Additional risk factors: urbanization, conflict and financial challenges</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Key sectors, adaptation priorities and opportunities</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>C. Challenges and diverse perspectives on climate change in Africa</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Discrepancies and heterogeneity in climate adaptation</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Development vs Decarbonization dilemma</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>II. Outcomes and takeaways of COP27</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>A. Delivery of enhanced climate finance and other support to Africa and other developing countries</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Fulfillment of $100 Billion Pledge:</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Adaptation Financing and Funding Announcement:</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Reforms in Financial Institutions:</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Green Climate Fund and Collective Finance Goal:</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>B. Strengthening adaptation action and support</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>COP27: A Focus on Adaptation Challenges:</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>The Global Goal on Adaptation Framework:</td><td>22</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>Doubling Adaptation Finance Challenges:</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Simplifying Access to Adaptation Finance:</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>Adaptation Fund Pledges and Sharm el-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda:</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>C. Addressing climate-induced loss and damage</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>Long-standing Call for a Loss and Damage Fund:</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>COP27: A Decisive Move towards Funding Arrangements:</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Establishment of a Dedicated Fund:</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Santiago Network for Loss and Damage (SNLD):</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Global Initiatives for Climate Resilience:</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>D. Enhancing ambition on mitigation towards 1.5°C</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Emission Reduction Targets: A Modest Stride:</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Just Transition Strategies: A Lag in Development:</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Mitigation Work Programme: A Framework for Scaling Ambition:</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Accountability Challenges and the Urgency of Peaking Emissions:</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Fossil Fuel Production and Renewable Energy Focus:</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Mitigation Work Programme's Critical Role:</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>E. Supporting African Just Transitions and Sustainable Development</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>A Call for Just Transitions: Operationalizing a Vision:</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Recognition of Just Transition Principles: Social Dialogue and Participation:</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Renewable Energy Deployment: A Mixed Victory:</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>The Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan: Urgency Amidst Challenges:</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Establishment of a Just Transition Work Programme: Toward Comprehensive Understanding:</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>The Nairobi Declaration: Unlocking Funding for Transition:</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>F. Maximizing the Global Stocktake to Highlight Equity</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>GST Mandate: A Comprehensive Overview:</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>GST and Equity Integration: A Substantive Call:</td><td>31</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>COP27 GST Discussions: A Technical Dialogue Framework:</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan: Acknowledging GST Progress:</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Integration of Equity in the GST Process: A Need for Clarity:</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>2023: A Pivotal Year for the GST:</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>III. THE ROAD TO COP28</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>The 2023 Africa Climate Summit</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>The Bridgetown Initiative and COP28</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>Additional considerations</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Conclusion</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>Recommendations</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Bibliography</td><td>43</td></tr></table>

## INTRODUCTION

At the 27th session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties, hosted in Egypt in 2022, Africa made noteworthy contributions to the ongoing negotiations. Notably, prior to 2008, each African nation conducted negotiations autonomously, in contrast to the European Union's practice of adopting a unified stance on behalf of its member states<fnref n="1" />. A significant impediment to progress was the dearth of scientifically substantiated data, which hindered the negotiation process. For instance, during the Copenhagen Summit on Climate (COP15), the absence of comprehensive scientific data rendered it impossible to accurately assess the financial outlays required for Africa's adaptation to climate change<fnref n="2" />. Confronted with the evident lack of coherence among political stakeholders, scientific experts, and negotiators, the leaders of the African Union (AU) took decisive action. They determined that Africa would best serve its interests by presenting a unified front and speaking with a single voice in international climate negotiations. This

<footnote n="1">¹ International Development Research Centre, "Strengthening Africa's stance in climate negotiations", Research in Action, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² Dhesigen Naidoo, Manisha Gulati, "Africa's positioning in global climate change negotiations: building agency for COP27 and beyond", Institute for Security Studies, Report, 2022</footnote>
pivotal decision resulted in the reinforcement of the African Group of negotiators, overseen by the African Ministerial Conference on Environment and the AU's Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change3.

African countries disproportionately suffer from the adverse impact of climate change. These challenges have profound implications for food security, health, water resources and livelihoods across the continent. While the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities should be advocated for, the AU is aware that following the same path as richer industrial countries is unsustainable. It has thus embarked on a journey of increased engagement and assertiveness in international climate negotiations4. Furthermore, the African Union's Agenda 2063, a strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent, has integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation as essential components. This recognition underscores the union's commitment to addressing climate change not only as an environmental issue but as a matter that affects the continent's sustainable development, social cohesion, and overall resilience.

With COP28 on the horizon, the AU finds itself at a pivotal juncture in its climate diplomacy journey. It is imperative to analyze the lessons learned from COP27 and chart a roadmap that allows the AU to consolidate its position as a leader in global climate negotiations, as the outcomes of the conference will hold profound implications for the continent's ability to effectively address climate change and build a resilient future.

## METHODOLOGY

The process of developing an advisory paper involves several key steps, including identifying the problem or issue, conducting research, analyzing data, and formulating recommendations. The appropriate methodological framework thus combines literature review, document analysis and data synthesis. The literature review and document analysis was based on the following (but not limited to) existing sources:

* Academic sources: a systematic review of peer-reviewed academic literature and scholarly articles was conducted using reputable databases.

<footnote n="3">³ Simon Chin-Yee, Tobias Dan Nielsen, Lau Blaxekjoer, "One voice, one Africa: the African Group of Negotiators", In: Coalitions in the Climate Change Negotiations, Routledge, 2020</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴ Lukoye Atwoli, Abraham Haileamlak, Gregory Erhabor et.al, "COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world", Health Science Reports, 2022</footnote>
* Policy documents: a review of policy documents, reports and official publications from international organizations, governments and non-governmental organizations was conducted. This includes documents from the **African Union, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB)**, etc.

* Grey literature: sources such as reports and working papers from think tanks, research institutions (**the African Climate Policy Centre, the African Climate Foundation, the International Development Research Centre**...), international organizations (**UNEP, the IPCC, the World Resources Institute, the Institute for Security Studies**) and civil society organizations was consulted to capture diverse perspectives and insights on the subject.

* Regional and international donor documents: documents and statements from international donor organizations (**the Green Climate Fund, the Climate Investment Funds, the European Union, the World Bank Climate Finance, the International Finance Cooperation**) and relevant institutions correlated to climate finance in the context of Africa and the AU's strategy was analyzed. A particular focus was given to commitments, funding mechanisms and cooperation initiatives.

Through these documents, a comprehensive review of academic and policy literature was conducted to identify the major points of discussion and negotiation, the status of international climate negotiations, the regulatory framework and the key outcomes and decisions adopted by the Parties.

# I. AFRICA'S AGENCY IN GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVERNANCE: AN
OVERVIEW

## A. HISTORICAL AND EVOLVING ROLE IN CLIMATE GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

### THE SHIFT TOWARDS UNITY: ADVANCING AFRICA'S COLLECTIVE INTERESTS

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines global climate governance as the coordinated mechanisms and strategies aimed at guiding societal systems in the prevention, mitigation, or adaptation to climate change risks, began to take shape during the latter decades of the twentieth century<fnref n="5" />. The emergence of the notion was catalyzed by the realization that environmental issues had transcended local and regional boundaries. A definitive recognition of this concept came in

<footnote n="5">⁵ Citing: Jagers S.C., Stripple J., "Climate governance beyond the state", Global Governance, Vo.9, N°3, 2003</footnote>
1992 with the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a pivotal development following the first Earth Summit held in Rio.

The African common position on the African Environment and Development was announced at the 2nd Regional African Ministerial Conference for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Côte d'Ivoire in 1991, marking the first occasion in which all African states collectively addressed the issue of climate change and laid the ground work for essential principles in African environmental diplomacy. This includes the priority of economic development and the importance of food and energy security. The process for this African position started 15 years later in 2006⁶. While Africa adopted its own Declaration on Climate Change and Development in 2007, climate negotiations across the continent were characterized by the autonomous conduct of each African nation<fnref n="7" />. This stood in contrast to the European Union's practice of presenting a unified stance on behalf of its member states. It is essential to acknowledge the inherent complexities in unifying 54 heterogeneous states, each with its unique interests.

Ultimately, the 2009 Nairobi Declaration resulted in the common position. The first time the African Union (AU) clearly expressed this 'African Common Position on Climate Change' was at the 2009 Copenhagen COP, setting the mandate for African negotiators<fnref n="8" />. This marked a defining moment in Africa's climate diplomacy, with the realization that Africa's collective interests could be better served through a unified front and a harmonized voice in international climate negotiations<fnref n="9" />. This endeavor was overseen by the African Ministerial Conference on Environment and the AU's Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change. Their mission was to ensure the effective representation of Africa's interests and concerns at the global climate negotiation table.

This shift marked a significant turning point, ushering in an era of greater unity, coherence, and influence for Africa in the global effort to combat climate change. Subsequently, Africa has demonstrated leadership in addressing the climate threat. In 2010, the principle of "equitable access to sustainable development" emerged as a central theme for the UNFCCC agreement, and African governments played a crucial role in articulating interpretations that favored climate justice<fnref n="10" />. Recognizing the limitations of the longstanding North-South divide that had persisted for two decades,

<footnote n="6">⁶ Hoste J.C., « Where was united Africa in the climate change negotiations? », Africa Policy Brief, Belgium: Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, 2010</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷ International Development Research Centre, “Strengthening Africa’s stance in climate negotiations”, Research in Action, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="8">⁸ African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change, URL: https://africangroupofnegotiators.org</footnote>

<footnote n="9">⁹ Simon Chin-Yee, Tobias Dan Nielsen, Lau Blaxekjoer, “One voice, one Africa: the African Group of Negotiators”, In: Coalitions in the Climate Change Negotiations, Routledge, 2020</footnote>

<footnote n="10">¹⁰ UNFCCC, “Report on the workshop on equitable access to sustainable development”, Ad Hox Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, 15th session, Doha, November 2012</footnote>
the international community began to engage in a more constructive dialogue<fnref n="11" />. It was acknowledged
that grouping countries such as China and Ethiopia together was overly simplistic.

Due to a lack of the capacities required for meaningful engagement, delegations from Africa have faced
challenges in their effective participation. However, over the past decade, African negotiators have
improved their access to material resources, increasing the size and quality of their delegations<fnref n="12" />. At
the request of the AGN in 2008, the African Development Bank (AfDB) started to provide funding for
African delegates to participate in the UNFCCC negotiations. International partnerships were formed
to better push the African Common Position's agenda forward. Technical and political input from a
range of African actors and platforms contributed to an effective participation in international climate
negotiations<fnref n="13" />.

AFRICA'S CLIMATE DIPLOMACY: KEY INSTITUTIONS AND LEADERSHIP MILESTONES

In the run-up to the Paris Agreement, Africa presented a unified position that advocated, among other
things, the stabilization of global average temperatures well below 1.5°C, a balanced approach
between mitigation and adaptation, and the provision of secure and sustainable financing. In January
2016, a new common position called upon African states to ratify the Paris Agreement and develop
strategies to maximize its benefits for the continent. The most notable development in recent years
was the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022)<fnref n="14" />, a
crucial element in understanding the African Union's positioning and actions regarding climate change.
The strategy aims to develop resource-efficient industry and make key sectors such as agriculture and
food systems, water resources, energy, infrastructure and transport more climate-resilient. It is a key
instrument in supporting regional collaboration on climate change and more effective international
partnerships and provides a framework for joint action.

Africa's commitment to addressing climate change is further exemplified by its hosting of the COP on
four occasions through Morocco, South Africa, and Egypt. During the 2016 COP, African leaders
established three commissions on climate (Sahel, Insular states, and Congo Bassin), under the
leadership of Morocco. Additionally, Regional Economic Communities have established effective

<footnote n="11">¹¹ Banque Africaine de Développement, “L’Afrique et le climat : une opportunité pour s’adapter et prospérer », Contribution de la Banque Africaine de Développement à la Réunion de la COP21 à la CCNUCC, 2015</footnote>

<footnote n="12">¹² Tsega A.H., "Africa in global climate change governance: analyzing its position and challenges", International Journal of African Development, Vol.4, N°1, 2016</footnote>

<footnote n="13">¹³ Ramsamy R., Knoll A., Knaepen H., Wyk L.V., "How does Africa speak with one voice? Africa's evolving positions on aid effectiveness, climate change and the post-2015 goals", European Centre for Development Policy Management, N°74, 2014</footnote>

<footnote n="14">¹⁴ African Union, “African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022-2032), 2022</footnote>
structures reflecting their dedication to the climate cause. The AU Peace and Security Council held a
special session in 2021 to examine the nexus between climate change and security. Furthermore, the
COP27 Egyptian presidency initiated the Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace project during COP27.

Crucially, three institutions play a pivotal role in steering environmental protection efforts: the African
Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN), the Committee of African Heads of State and
Government on Climate Change (CAHOSOCC), and the African Group of Negotiators (AGN). Their
coordinated interactions have become firmly integrated into the AU's framework<sup>15</sup>. The AGN was
established in 1995 at COP1 in Berlin, as an alliance of African member states representing the interests
of the region in the international climate change negotiations, with a common and unified voice. It
prepares and drafts text and common positions guided by decisions and key messages from CAHOSOCC
and the AMCEN. Key milestones include the conclusion of the Durban negotiations that launched the
negotiations which translated into the Paris Agreement, the integration of most of its key proposals
into the Paris Agreement, and the championing of the Technical Examination Process on Adaptation in
the pre-2020 action.

In summary, despite the considerable variation in climate profiles among African countries, the continent has forged a cohesive pan-African climate diplomacy over the past decade. This collective endeavor is embodied by the AU and articulated by African delegations during international climate negotiations. The AU's Agenda 2063, a comprehensive 50-year strategic framework, encapsulates Africa's vision of becoming a prosperous and climate-resilient continent committed to sustainable long-term development. This pan-African approach to climate diplomacy underscores the collective determination to address climate challenges and secure a sustainable future for Africa.

AFRICAN LED CLIMATE INITIATIVES AND ACHIEVEMENTS

African countries participated and launched many projects and initiatives linked to key steps of the
COPs. Some of them include:

1. The African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) (COP21)<fnref n="16" />: this significant African-led initiative aims to deploy 300GW of renewable energy across Africa by 2030, addressing energy access and climate mitigation. This initiative emphasizes the role of renewable energy in sustainable development on the continent.

<footnote n="15">¹⁵ Tsega A.H. (2016), op.cit</footnote>

<footnote n="16">¹⁶ African Union, “Green Recover Action Plan (2021-2027), 2021, URL: https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/40790-doc-AU_Green-Recovery SILHIN.pdf</footnote>
2. The Great Green Wall Initiative (COP7)<fnref n="17" />: arguably one of the most ambitious sustainable development and climate resilience programs, this project launched by the African Union aims to combat desertification, land degradation and drought in the Sahel region by creating a mosaic of green and productive landscapes. It was originally conceived as a thematic project focusing on creating a wall of trees from Dakar to Djibouti through 11 countries. It has since then gradually shifted to a holistic, multi-sectoral and integrated vision of sustainable land management and poverty eradication.

3. The African Circular Economy Alliance (ACEA) (COP23)<fnref n="18" />: established by the Governments of South Africa, Nigeria and Rwanda, its mission is to spur Africa's transition to a circular economy at the country, regional and continental levels by operating as a collaborative platform to coordinate and link the various initiatives on the continent.

4. The Africa Adaptation Initiative (AAI) (COP21)<fnref n="19" />: the 25th African Union Summit provided a mandate to the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN) to develop a proposal for enhancing support to African on adaptation together with the African Group of Negotiators. The initiative was launched as a result at the COP21 in Paris. It focuses on building climate resilience in Africa by supporting adaptation efforts, particularly in sectors vulnerable to climate impacts such as agriculture, infrastructure and water resources.

Major initiatives were also announced at COP27, such as:

1. The Africa Just & Affordable Energy Transition (AJAETI)<fnref n="20" />: it aims to ensure access to affordable energy by 2027 for at least 300 million Africans and increase the share of renewable electricity generation by 25% by 2027 in Africa.

2. African Women's Climate Adaptive Priorities (AWCAP)<fnref n="21" />: it aims to strengthen the inclusion of women in the climate change transition and adaptation process, their equitable inclusion in the "green" job retraining projects and ensure that women benefit from the massive influx of funding dedicated to green entrepreneurship.

<footnote n="17">¹⁷ UNCCD, « The Great Green Wall: hope for the Sahara and the Sahel», United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2016</footnote>

<footnote n="18">¹⁸ African Development Bank Group, The African Circular Economy Alliance, URL: https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/topics/circular-economy/african-circular-economy-alliance-acea</footnote>

<footnote n="19">¹⁹ African Union, "Africa Renewable Energy Initiative: a framework for transforming Africa towards a renewable energy powered future with access for all", 2016, URL: http://www.arei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/AREI-Framework.pdf</footnote>

<footnote n="20">²⁰ COP27, "Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative: under the leadership of the COP27 presidency of the Arab Republic of Egypt", 2022, URL: https://cop27.eg/assets/files/initiatives/AJAETI-BR-01-EGY-10-22-ENup.pdf</footnote>

<footnote n="21">²¹ UN Women, "African Women's Climate Adaptive Priorities (AWCAP), COP27 Presidency Initiative, 2022, URL: https://egypt.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/EN-%20AWCAP%20Initiative%20-%20FINAL_0.pdf</footnote>
3. Action on Water, Adaptation and Resilience (AWARE)<fnref n="22" />: it aims to catalyze inclusive cooperation that understands water resources as a key to climate change adaptation and co-benefits, by providing financial support to local, national and regional activities on irrigation and drought-resistant crops. The African Union and the African Ministers' Council on Water are the partner institutions for this initiative, which builds on the Water and Climate Coalition, the Coalition for Action on Adaptation and the Marrakech Partnership for Climate Action.

## B. AFRICA'S CLIMATE CHALLENGES, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION PRIORITIES

### AFRICA'S UNIQUE CLIMATE CHALLENGES AND VULNERABILITY FACTORS

As late industrializers, African countries contribute less than 4% of global GHG emissions<fnref n="23" />. On average, an Ethiopian would take 240 years to reach the greenhouse gas emissions level of a North American<fnref n="24" />. However, the continent remains one of the most vulnerable to climate variability and change due to the multiple stress factors. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, out of the 10 nations most threatened by climate change in 2017, 3 were African countries, rising to 5 African countries in 2019²⁵. Around 20% of the continent's population lives in one of the 10 most climate vulnerable countries<fnref n="26" />. The report on the State of the Climate in Africa 2022 reveals that the pace of temperature increase in the continent has accelerated over recent decades, with increasingly severe risks linked to weather and climate<fnref n="27" />. In 2022, meteorological, climatic and hydrological events directly impacted more than 110 million people on the continent, causing economic damages estimated at over $8.5 billion. The emergency situation database reports 5000 documented deaths, with 48% attributed to drought and

<footnote n="22">²² UNFCCC, Action for Water Adaptation and Resilience, URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/AWARE_Initiative_at_COP27.pdf</footnote>

<footnote n="23">²³ Statista, “Africa’s share in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2000 to 2021, Energy & ENvironment, URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1287508/africa-share-in-global-co2-emissions/</footnote>

<footnote n="24">²⁴ Kende-Robb C., “How Africa can show the world the way to a low-carbon future: 10 facts, 10 actions”, Brookings Commentary, August 17th 2015</footnote>

<footnote n="25">²⁵ Eckstein D., Hutfils M.L., Winges M., “Global Climate Risk Index 2019: who suffers most from extreme weather events?”, Briefing Paper, 2019</footnote>

<footnote n="26">²⁶ Mo Ibrahim Foundation, “The Road to COP27: making Africa’s case in the climate debate”, Facts & Figures, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="27">²⁷ WMO, “State of the Climate in Africa 2022”, World Meteorological Organization, 2023, URL: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate/Africa-2022#:~:text=The%20State%20of%20the%20Climate,ocean%20of%20what%20is%20needed.</footnote>
43% to floods<fnref n="28" />. However, it should be kept in mind that the actual number of casualties is certainly much higher due to underreporting.

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability, exacerbating already marginal living standards, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states<fnref n="29" />. According to the IPCC, no other region faces the same level of challenges in all vulnerability facets than Africa<fnref n="30" />. These vulnerability factors include uprooted people, governance, dependency ratio, access to health care, access to basic infrastructure, food security, inequality, extreme poverty and adult literacy rate.

Almost half of Africa's working-age population is employed in agriculture, making livelihoods dependent on the most climate-sensitive sector. In Niger and Somalia, the share of employment in agriculture is 72.5% and 80.3%<fnref n="31" />. Poverty is also high in the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and 39.7 million more people in Sub-Saharan Africa could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change. Rising food insecurity can also be observed, with about 800 million people already affected by food insecurity. By 2050, it is estimated that an additional 78 million people will be pushed into chronic hunger<fnref n="32" />.

## CLIMATE CHANGE PATTERNS AND TRENDS

Compared to 1901, the 2020 average annual precipitation over the continent decreased in 29 countries and increased in 25 countries<fnref n="33" />. Precipitation will become more and more unpredictable all over the continent. In the period between 2010-2022, the number of people affected by droughts in Africa amounted to at least 172.3 million, more than twice the current population of France. The Horn of Africa faced in 2022 its worst drought in 40 years, with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia being particularly hard-hit<fnref n="34" />. Five consecutive seasons of low rainfall diminished agricultural productivity and weakened food security. The devastating effects of drought coupled with hunger led nearly 1.2 million people to internally displace in Somalia<fnref n="35" />. Ethiopia recorded 512.000 drought-related internal displacements.

<footnote n="28">²⁸ Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="29">²⁹ Goodman S., Baudu P., “Climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’: history, uses and future of the concept”, Center for Climate & Security, Briefer, N°38, 2023</footnote>

<footnote n="30">³⁰ IPCC, « Chapter 9: Africa » in: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="31">³¹ Mo Ibrahim (2022), op.cit</footnote>

<footnote n="32">³² Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="33">³³ Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="34">³⁴ WHO, “Drought and food insecurity in the Horn of Africa”, 2022, URL: https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/drought-food-insecurity-greater-horn-of-africa</footnote>

<footnote n="35">³⁵ UNHCR, “Over 1 million people internally displaced in Somalia in record time”, Press Releases, 24 May 2023, URL: https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/over-1-million-people-internally-displaced-somalia-record-time</footnote>
Over the period 1991-2022, Africa experience an average warming rate of +0.3°C per decade, compared to +0.2% per decade between 1961 and 1990³⁶. This data slightly exceeds the global average, and the most rapid warming occurred in North Africa, which witnessed extreme heatwaves that fueled forest fires in Algeria and Tunisia in 2022. Although this increase can seem weak, it is already having devastating effects with increases in extremes and duration of heatwaves affecting the entire continent, high coral mortality in the western part of the Indian Ocean, decreased precipitation in Morocco, along the coastal regions of Algeria and Tunisia, in the western Sahel and in Cameroon. Half of the assessed African species are expected to experience losses of over 30% in their population or suitable habitat area<fnref n="37" />. Staple crops and fish catches are projected to decline by up to 40%. Additionally, 108 to 116 million people will face exposure to sea-level rise by 2030³⁸.

Around 45% of Africa's land is affected by desertification, with the Sahara and the Sahel among the regions of the world most affected by desertification and drought<fnref n="39" />.

ADDITIONAL RISK FACTORS: URBANIZATION, CONFLICT AND FINANCIAL CHALLENGES

For the period 2020-2030, the costs associated with climate change-induced losses and damages in Africa are estimated to range between $290 and $440 billion<fnref n="40" />. Many reports suggest that climate change, coupled with the depletion of resources bases, may exacerbate conflicts over scarce productive land, water and pastures. This is particularly evident in regions where violence between herders and farmers has escalated over the past ten years due to mounting land pressure.

It is therefore essential to recognize the inextricable link between climate change and the surge in conflicts, civil unrest, and government instability currently afflicting Africa<fnref n="41" />. Climate change has precipitated a gradual collapse of ecosystems across the Sahel region, leading to a severe agricultural crisis and economic repercussions. Consequently, conflicts and civil unrest, particularly concerning issues of land, water, and food, have become endemic.

<footnote n="36">³⁶ WMO, "Africa suffers disproportionately from climate change", World Meteorological Organization, Press Release, 4 September 2023</footnote>

<footnote n="37">³⁷ ACSS, "African biodiversity loss raises risk to human security", Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="38">³⁸ ACSS, "Rising sea levels besieging Africa's booming cities", African Center for Strategic Studies, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="39">³⁹ UNEP, "The economics of land degradation in Africa: benefits of action outweigh the costs: a complementary report to the ELD Initiative", Report, 2015</footnote>

<footnote n="40">⁴⁰ WMO (2023), op.cit</footnote>

<footnote n="41">⁴¹ The North Africa Post, « Civil unrest in Africa hits 6-year high, driven by political tensions, food insecurity», May 28th, 2023, URL: https://northafricapost.com/68069-civil-unrest-in-africa-hits-6-year-high-driven-by-political-tensions-food-insecurity-report.html</footnote>
The IPCC WG3 report highlights that financial flows towards fossil fuels remain more substantial than those allocated to climate change adaptation and mitigation<fnref n="42" />. Calculations reveal that only 4 to 8% of total climate finance has been allocated to adaptation investments. Based on an assessment of the climate finance needs of African countries, it has been estimated that collectively, the cost of implementing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) accounts for more than 93% of Africa's GDP<fnref n="43" />. It is projected that approximately $2.8 trillion will be required between 2020 and 2030 to implement Africa's NDCs. The significance of this funding cap cannot be overstated, and it should be given high priority. Although adaptation is a priority for African countries, needs in this regard tend to be underestimated, possibly due to a lack of data. This partly explains why despite the continent's vulnerability, only 24% of climate finance needs are identified as adaptation needs<fnref n="44" />. If climate action continues to lag behind, it is expected that these needs and associated costs will significantly increase.

Africa is the future demographic giant of the planet. By 2100, its population is projected to increase from 1.2 billion people (17% of the world's population) to 4.4 billion (40% of the world's population)<fnref n="45" />. As a corollary of this massive and anticipated growth, there is the prospect of urbanization that could become chaotic if measures are not taken to adequately organize it.

## KEY SECTORS, ADAPTATION PRIORITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The region-wide, transboundary and multi-country adaptation efforts in Africa are currently concentrated on sharing information, knowledge and guidance, facilitating the provision of financial support and implementing adaptation measures on the ground. On the other hand, few activities focus on adaptation planning, monitoring and evaluation, and providing space for engagement. Key adaptation priorities include food security and resilient agriculture, sustainable water management, ecosystem-based adaptation, climate change education and capacity building, climate information and data, accessibility of funding mechanisms and diversification of livelihoods.

The most pressing issue for Africa is energy, which is essential for its transformation. Nearly 600 million people in Africa still lack access to electricity<fnref n="46" />. Renewable energy is currently the cheapest option available, and countries should focus on realistic investment plans to promote access to energy and

<footnote n="42">⁴² IPCC, "IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Working Group III Mitigation of climate change", 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="43">⁴³ Guzmàn S., Dobrovich G., Balm A., Meattle C., "The state of climate finance in Africa: climate finance needs of African countries", Climate Policy Initiative, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="44">⁴⁴ Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="45">⁴⁵ Ciluffo A., Ruiz N.G., "World's population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century", Pew Research Center, 2019</footnote>

<footnote n="46">⁴⁶ International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-electricity</footnote>
encourage sustainable industrialization. Some countries have already made strides in harnessing
hydroelectric and geothermal energy sources, but there is much work to be done. The energy
transition within the continent needs to be defined, owned and led by Africa. The continent's electricity
installed capacity needs to double by 2030 and increase fivefold by 2050, with at least 80% coming
from renewables with the adequate policies and support<fnref n="47" />. To unlock Africa's clean energy potential,
key issues need to be addressed, including policy and regulatory reforms, subsidy reform, a transparent
and accessible legal system, as well as the mobilization of substantial private sector investments. The
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could be leveraged to be at the center of the global green
transition agenda. Notably, the Kigali Communique and the AU's common position on the energy
transition place emphasis on the critical role that natural gas must play as an enabling transition fuel,
due to its highly dispatchable and cost-competitive nature providing system flexibility<fnref n="48" />.

The second priority is to focus investments on adaptation efforts that address critical issues like agriculture, coastal fishing, and food supply chain security in Africa. African nations must consider ways to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to connect food producers and consumers better and establish a sustainable model of food production and consumption that follows circular economy principles. While the AfCFTA minimally references the environment, it can be adjusted to support environmental and climate change action, ensuring the elimination of restrictions to trade in environmental goods and services, and allowing for the development of green value chains in Africa<fnref n="49" />.

Additionally, there are significant opportunities to mobilize national resources, including through
carbon credit markets. To this end, emerging facilities such as the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability
Trust Fund and institutions such as the African Development Bank (AfDB) can be accessed to obtain
more resources. The key issue for Africa is how to simultaneously build resilience and accelerate
economic growth in the face of multiple external shocks. This necessitates a shift from reliance on raw
material exports toward a higher value-added economy with a focus on green transformation. Notably,
large-scale investments in climate resilience, particularly in energy access for sustainable
industrialization, can drive poverty reduction and transform Africa's economic model. To bolster these
efforts, special drawing rights (SDRs) could also be redirected to support capital investment in green
sectors<fnref n="50" />.

<footnote n="47">⁴⁷ PwC, "African Energy Review 2021: the global race to net zero by 2050 is accelerating. Will Africa realize a just transition or become a stranded asset?", African Energy Review, 2021</footnote>

<footnote n="48">⁴⁸ Bhattacharya A., Khara H., McArthur J.W., "Keys to climate action: how developing countries could drive global success and local prosperity", The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., 2023</footnote>

<footnote n="49">⁴⁹ Manduna C., Fundira T., "How to ensure that the AfCFTA propels Africa's green transition", Africa Policy Research Institute, Policy Brief, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="50">⁵⁰ Bhattachary et.al (2023), op.cit.</footnote>
In navigating these priorities, vulnerabilities can be reduced and a course toward a more climate-
resilient future can be charted. Africa's pan-African approach to climate diplomacy, as well as its
commitment to innovative initiatives and sustainable development, exemplify the continent's
dedication to addressing the challenges posed by climate change. However, discrepancies and
divergent perspectives on climate change adaptation remain.

C. CHALLENGES AND DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA

DISCREPANCIES AND HETEROGENEITY IN CLIMATE ADAPTATION

Since the Paris Agreement came into force in 2016, 53 out of 54 countries in Africa have signed and ratified it, while Libya has only signed it. Some key challenges for addressing the effects of climate change in Africa include information deficit, inadequate funding, a lack of a unified stance on climate change and weak coordination. Indeed, weather reporting in the continent is far below the recommended minimum of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with climate scientists in Central Africa facing a huge information deficit<fnref n="51" />.

Countries are guided on climate change policy by their individual Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are often at odds with the climate change policies of their corresponding REC, and with national economic development plans.

There is significant variation in national situations concerning climate adaptation. This heterogeneity reflects differences in capacity, including resources and skills, within the governments, public agencies and communities responsible for adaptation. It also relates to differences in political willingness, with these two dimensions not always being directly related. Among the countries most advanced in developing and implementing their National Adaptation Plans, we can find some of the more developed countries in Africa such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco or the Seychelles. On the other hand, some countries have strong political commitment even though they lack resources. These

<footnote n="51">⁵¹ Asiamah G.B., Jechel L., « Governing Climate Change in Africa», Wilson Center, Blog Post, 2020</footnote>
include Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Rwanda, or Togo<fnref n="52" />. Angola and Cameroon for example already signaled their commitment to stop gas flaring associated with the oil extraction process<fnref n="53" />.

The African Group of Negotiators has been hindered by some fragmentations within the group due to varying policy positions on climate change<fnref n="54" />. For example, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) within the group focuses on response measure. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) traditionally push for all large GHG emitters to take more responsibility, while the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are particularly interested in finance, technology transfer and adaptation. South Africa, one of the continent's largest economies and a significant contributor to GHG emissions, is both part of the AGN and the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China).

## DEVELOPMENT VS DECARBONIZATION DILEMMA

During the inaugural Africa Climate Summit held in Nairobi in September 2023, the document signed by heads of state underscored a missing consensus between countries championing renewable energy and those arguing fossil fuels are needed for economic development. The declaration mentions fossil fuels only when it calls on the global community to “uphold commitments to a fair and accelerated process of phasing down coal and abolishment of all fossil fuel subsidies”. While Kenya’s president William Ruto led calls for fast-tracking green growth, mentioning the continent’s “untapped renewable energy potential”, other African nations have considerable fossil fuel interests<fnref n="55" />. Angola and Nigeria are major oil producers while Senegal and Mozambique are expanding their gas industries. South Africa still relies on coal for its power generation although it is implementing a clean energy transition plan.

One of the issues at the heart of a development versus decarbonization challenge is gas. During the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) forum held in Kigali in May 2022, talks on gas as a transitional source of energy dominated the debate. For ministers of the DRC, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda and Zimbabwe, the deployment of gas as a transition fuel would help

<footnote n="52">⁵² UNFCCC, « National Adaptation Plans : progress in the process to formulate and implement National Adaptation Plans », LDC Expert Group, 2018</footnote>

<footnote n="53">⁵³ Hall J., Koen L., “Common but differentiated responsibility at what cost? Investment law as a barrier to climate ambition and achieving zero routine gas flaring in Africa”, Law Environment and Development Journal, Vol17/2, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="54">⁵⁴ Ramsamy et.al, 2014, op.cit</footnote>

<footnote n="55">⁵⁵ Civillini M., ‘African leaders skirt over fossil fuels in climate summit declaration’, Climate Home News, September 6th 2023, URL: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/09/06/african-leaders-skirt-over-fossil-fuels-in-climate-summit-declaration/</footnote>
address development gaps and put Africa on a pathway to economic prosperity and net zero<fnref n="56" />. However, much of the gas production under development in Africa is destined for export, including to European countries talking tough on fossil fuels. During a meeting in Addis Ababa before COP27, AU officials presented the proposal to the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) to promote gas as a bridge fuel for the continent at UN talks<fnref n="57" />. But climate diplomats, including representatives of the Egyptians presidency of COP27, argued it would be too controversial and distract from priorities like climate finance and adaptation. African civil society sent climate negotiators a memo calling the proposal "irreconcilable with success at COP27".

## II. OUTCOMES AND TAKEAWAYS OF COP27

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stands as a pivotal juncture in the global pursuit of climate resilience and sustainability. As the international community grapples with the urgency of climate action, COP27 unfolded against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, reaffirming the paramount need for decisive and transformative measures. This section meticulously examines the primary outcomes and key takeaways of COP27, delving into critical domains such as loss and damage, climate finance, mitigation efforts, the imperative of a Just Transition for Africa, and the evolving landscape of adaptation strategies. A discerning exploration of COP27's adherence to UNFCCC principles, including the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capacities (CBDR-RC), equity and fair shares, and principles of solidarity, sets the stage for a comprehensive understanding of the conference's trajectory. At the heart of this analysis lies an exploration of key milestones achieved during COP27 and a forward-looking gaze at the actionable imperatives that must shape the international climate agenda leading up to COP28. Through this lens, we glean insights into the evolving global response to climate change and pave the way for an informed and forward-thinking approach as we anticipate the convening of COP28.

In alignment with a strategic vision set forth by the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), the forthcoming presentation of the main outcomes and takeaways of COP27 follows a meticulously crafted six-point plan. This plan, strategically unveiled ahead of COP27, articulates a comprehensive

<footnote n="56">⁵⁶ Farand C., "African nations' dash for gas exposes division at the UN and 'hypocrisy' in Europe", Climate Home News, May 25th 2022, URL: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/05/25/african-nations-dash-for-gas-exposes-division-at-the-un-and-hypocrisy-in-europe/</footnote>

<footnote n="57">⁵⁷ Farand C., "African climate diplomats reject African Union's pro-gas stance for COP27", Climate Home News, August 4th 2022, URL: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/08/04/african-climate-diplomats-reject-african-unions-pro-gas-stance-for-cop27/</footnote>
framework to address the pressing challenges of the climate crisis, emphasizing Africa's unique vulnerabilities and the imperative for decisive global action<fnref n="58" />. The structure of the presentation mirrors the six-point plan, providing a coherent and systematic exploration of COP27 outcomes.

This plan includes the following key objectives and priorities:

1. **Delivery of enhanced climate finance and other support to Africa and other developing countries** : success of COP27 rested on its ability to get money flowing from developed countries to those most in need at the pace and scale required to match the climate crisis. As well as meeting the promised USD 100 billion per year in finance, developed countries also need to set out how they will increase it from 2025. While COP27 called for increased momentum for reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) to scale up climate finance in 2023, there has been a notable absence of enhanced climate financing pledges from developed countries. This underscores the ongoing challenge of mobilizing the necessary financial resources to support developing countries in their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts<fnref n="59" />.

2. **Strengthening adaptation action and support** : developed countries are required to assist developing ones meet the costs of adapting to the effects of climate change. Investing USD 1.8 trillion in adaptation between 2020 and 2030 could generate USD 7.1 trillion in benefits. At COP26, developed countries agreed to double financial support for adaptation to USD 40 billion per year, but this has not yet been done. The COP27 saw consensus on initiating a process to craft a comprehensive framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This structured approach encompasses key dimensions of the adaptation cycle, themes and sectors, cross-cutting issues, and diverse sources of information. The GGA aims to enhance adaptive capacity, fortify resilience, and reduce vulnerability to climate change. The finalized framework is slated for adoption at COP28, underlining the ongoing commitment to sustainable development and effective adaptation strategies.

3. **Addressing climate-induced loss and damage as a key part of multilateral cooperative climate action** : A pivotal outcome of COP27 was the establishment of funding arrangements

<footnote n="58">⁵⁸ Power Shift Africa, « Assessing COP27 : Assessing outcomes against the six-point plan agenda for Africa», 2023</footnote>

<footnote n="59">⁵⁹ Dupar M., McNamara L., « COP27 changes climate finance architecture with loss and damage decision, urges MDBs to transform”, Climate & Development Knowledge Network, November 21st 2022</footnote>
to address loss and damage, complemented by the formation of a dedicated fund. The
Transitional Committee, formed during the conference, is actively working on the
operationalization of this fund, with a decision expected at COP28. The Africa Group and the
G77 played instrumental roles in advocating for this crucial decision. Furthermore,
negotiations on the institutional arrangements for the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage
(SNLD) were successfully concluded during the conference, reinforcing the commitment to
providing technical assistance related to loss and damage to developing countries.

4. **Enhancing ambition on mitigation towards 1.5C**: At COP27, there was a collective agreement on the modalities of a work program to urgently enhance both the ambition and implementation of mitigation efforts. This landmark decision reaffirmed the commitment to the 1.5-degree temperature goal under the Paris Agreement. The work program, extending until 2026 with periodic reviews, focuses on exploring opportunities across various sectors for mitigation. Despite this progress, a significant gap remains in providing necessary support to developing countries, especially in the realm of renewable energy.

5. **Supporting African just transitions and sustainable development**: to harness Africa's potential, it needs investment and plans for sustainable development that would see new jobs and industries created. Huge advances could be made to tackle poverty, improve healthcare and boost prosperity. Targeted investment is needed to help accelerate the transition away from fossil fuel dependence in African and other developing countries, support energy independence, foster increased economic activity and support sustainable development. The COP27 marked the establishment of a comprehensive work programme on just transition, recognizing the importance of managing transitions toward long-term pathways to meet the Paris temperature goal. This initiative introduces an annual high-level Ministerial roundtable on Just Transition, beginning at the next COP in Dubai. The goal is to facilitate ambitious and equitable climate actions, considering the diverse starting points and nationally defined development priorities of developing countries.

6. **Maximizing the Global Stocktake to put fairness at the heart of the climate negotiations**: the Global Stocktake (GST) is a key element of the Paris Agreement. The first one was launched at COP26 in Glasgow, with the first session of its Technical Dialogue held in Bonn in June 2022. This needs to be a rigorous process that accurately captures the collective progress or lack thereof, on mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage and means of implementation towards delivering on the goals of the Paris Agreement.
## A. DELIVERY OF ENHANCED CLIMATE FINANCE AND OTHER SUPPORT TO AFRICA AND OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Ahead of COP27, the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance (SCF) published four reports that were important scene setters for finance discussions<fnref n="60" />. The reports show that while there has been an increase in overall global climate finance flows with a 12% increase in 2019-2020 over 2017-2018, the flows from international public sources are still well below the target. This failure is undermining developing countries' trust in the global financial architecture.

### FULFILLMENT OF $100 BILLION PLEDGE:

COP27 outcomes recognized the unmet $100 billion by 2020 pledge from developed countries. Accelerated delivery mechanisms were expected by the conference's commencement. Commitments were expected to be in place at the start of COP27. While commitments were made, concrete actions were lacking, underscoring the ongoing challenge of ensuring adequate and timely financial support for developing nations.

### ADAPTATION FINANCING AND FUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT:

A landmark decision at COP26 aimed to double adaptation finance by 2025. Notably, at COP27, eight donor governments pledged approximately USD 105 million to support countries facing severe climate impacts, including Senegal, the Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe<fnref n="61" />. This addition to the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) demonstrated a step forward, albeit with persistent concerns about the overall delivery on the $100 billion annual commitment. A lack of clarity on how to deliver on the promise to double adaptation finance by 2025 fueled growing resentment. Acknowledging the substantial investments needed for low-emission and climate-resilient development, COP27 recognized the financial gap. While estimates underscored the necessity of USD

<footnote n="60">⁶⁰ UNFCCC, « Four new reports set scene for discussions on climate finance at COP27 » November 2022, URL: https://unfccc.int/news/four-new-reports-set-scene-for-discussions-on-climate-finance-at-cop27</footnote>

<footnote n="61">⁶¹ UNDP, “COP27 outcome: resolving climate finance and establishing loss & damage fun”, December 2022: URL: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-01/COP27%20Outcome%20-%20Final.pdf</footnote>
4-6 trillion annually, the actual mobilization lagged behind, emphasizing the urgency for financial system transformation<fnref n="62" />.

## REFORMS IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS:

COP27 called for reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and International Financial Institutions (IFIs). These reforms aimed to increase the scale of additional climate finance, enhance access, and focus on concessional instruments. The envisioned reforms, though promising, faced resistance, posing challenges in ensuring effective and efficient delivery. The focus was on three workstreams: increasing the scale of additional climate finance, enhancing access to climate finance, and focusing on concessional instruments, mainly grants.

## GREEN CLIMATE FUND AND COLLECTIVE FINANCE GOAL:

The launch of the Second Replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for the period between January 1st 2024 and December 31st 2026 was welcomed, urging developed countries for contributions. However, substantive progress on the new collective quantified goal on climate finance faced hurdles. The COP established work programs focusing on Just Transitions and the relationship between Articles 2.1(c) and 9 of the Paris Agreement. In October 2023, more than 110 people attended the High-Level Pledging Conference of GCF's second replenishment (GCF-2) in Bonn. USD 9.3 billion were pledged at the Conference, which is a major milestone in GCF's replenishment process<fnref n="63" />.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* Despite acknowledging the need for significant investments, COP27 outcomes revealed a stark lack of commitment in delivering the USD 100 billion annual climate finance commitment. Postponed discussions on shared definitions and operationalizing Article 2.1(c) further underscored challenges<fnref n="64" />. The outcome expressed grave concern over the lack of delivery of the USD 100 billion per year climate finance commitment made at COP15 by developed countries to support developing ones. Indeed, only a quarter has been achieved.

<footnote n="62">⁶² Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="63">⁶³ Green Climate Fund, URL: https://www.greenclimate.fund/gcf-2</footnote>

<footnote n="64">⁶⁴ Alayza N., Bhandari P., Burns D. et al, “Cop 27 : key takeaways and what’s next”, World Resources Institute, 2022</footnote>
Moving forward, developed countries are urged to increase efforts, emphasizing grants over loans and support for adaptation finance. Ongoing reforms in MDBs and IFIs demand close monitoring, collaboration, and flexibility to avoid imposing undue conditions on vulnerable nations. Initiation of the Sharm el-Sheikh dialogue and substantial progress on the new financial goal are crucial for building consensus and ensuring the effective utilization of financial resources in support of climate action. The COP decision called for scaled-up public grants for mitigation and adaptation for vulnerable regions, in particular sub-Saharan Africa.

## B. STRENGTHENING ADAPTATION ACTION AND SUPPORT

### COP27: A FOCUS ON ADAPTATION CHALLENGES:

COP27 witnessed a spotlight on adaptation, with many African nations underscoring the urgent need to address climate change impacts. Despite Africa's call for a substantive decision, COP27 adopted a process decision on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The decision recognized the need for efforts to achieve the GGA, emphasizing the reduction of adverse impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with climate change.

### THE GLOBAL GOAL ON ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK:

While COP27 laid the groundwork for developing a framework for the GGA in 2023, it fell short of Africa's expectations for a concrete framework with science-based indicators, metrics, and targets. The decision acknowledged the Adaptation Fund's vital role, urging contributors to fulfill pledges in a timely manner.

### DOUBLING ADAPTATION FINANCE CHALLENGES:

The conference faced challenges in adopting an agenda item on the COP26 decision to double adaptation finance by 2025. The Standing Committee on Finance was tasked with preparing a report for consideration at COP28. COP27 outcomes recognized ongoing challenges in accessing climate finance, emphasizing the need to simplify access. $230 million has been committed to global
adaptation at COP27, with several countries contributing to the adaptation fund for the first time<fnref n="65" />. This is a positive step, but amounts to less than 10% of Africa's needs alone - the African Union estimates that climate finance needs for adaptation in Africa range from US$259 – 407 billion between 2020 and 2030⁶⁶.

## SIMPLIFYING ACCESS TO ADAPTATION FINANCE:

While the Six-point plan specifically called for the agreement of a program to improve access to adaptation finance, COP27 outcomes encourage ongoing efforts to simplify access. Reducing procedural complexities becomes crucial for improving access to finance, ensuring that developing countries have the necessary resources to adapt to climate change.

## ADAPTATION FUND PLEDGES AND SHARM EL-SHEIKH ADAPTATION AGENDA:

Positive developments include pledges of USD 230 million to the Adaptation Fund, fulfilling commitments made at COP26. COP27 saw the launch of the Sharm el-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda, a collaborative plan to accelerate transformative solutions, aligning both state and non-state actors toward achieving adaptation outcome targets by 2030.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* COP28 awaits critical decisions on a robust GGA framework, the fulfillment of financial pledges, progress on doubling adaptation finance, and the scaling of MDBs' adaptation efforts. Accelerating negotiations, committing to allocate at least 50% of climate finance to adaptation in alignment with COP26 decision the “Glasgow Climate Pact”, and agreeing on a delivery plan for doubling adaptation finance will be crucial actions. The path forward necessitates collaborative efforts, a commitment to simplifying access, and a relentless focus on building adaptive capacities for a resilient future.

## C. ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED LOSS AND DAMAGE

Addressing the longstanding plea of vulnerable nations, COP27 marked a milestone with the establishment of a fund dedicated to addressing climate-induced loss and damage. This section

<footnote n="65">⁶⁵ World Resources Institute (2022), op. cit.</footnote>

<footnote n="66">⁶⁶ Mo Ibrahim Foundation, « COP27 : Taking stock of progress», 2022</footnote>
scrutinizes the third point of the six-point agenda, shedding light on the significance of acknowledging
the equivalence of loss and damage with adaptation and mitigation. Though a placeholder had
appeared in the draft document, the final document included no recognition of Africa's specific
situation and needs<fnref n="67" />.

LONG-STANDING CALL FOR A LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND:

For three decades, vulnerable countries had advocated for a fund to cope with severe climate impacts.
The 6-point agenda emphasized acknowledging loss and damage's equivalence with adaptation and
mitigation, urging for new and additional finance to meet the needs of vulnerable communities and
developing countries.

COP27: A DECISIVE MOVE TOWARDS FUNDING ARRANGEMENTS:

COP27 responded to the persistent call by adopting a standalone agenda item on funding arrangements for loss and damage. The decision highlighted the urgency of enhancing efforts in this realm, recognizing the IPCC's findings on escalating loss and damage with temperature increase fractions.

ESTABLISHMENT OF A DEDICATED FUND:

A fund exclusively focusing on addressing loss and damage was established, marking a significant leap
forward. The decision included the creation of a Transitional Committee tasked with operationalizing
funding arrangements and the fund. The roadmap outlined a series of activities, including dialogues
among parties on loss and damage finance, with expectations for modalities and operationalization
decisions at COP28 in 2023.

SANTIAGO NETWORK FOR LOSS AND DAMAGE (SNLD):

COP27 concluded negotiations on the institutional arrangements for SNLD, designed to provide
technical assistance related to loss and damage. Progress was made on the governance structure and
host selection process, with plans for full operationalization by COP28. The inclusive and transparent
design of modalities is crucial to ensure effective access to financial and technical support.

<footnote n="67">⁶⁷ Ibid.</footnote>
## GLOBAL INITIATIVES FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE:

In tandem with COP27 outcomes, the UN revealed a USD 3.1 billion plan to ensure global coverage by early-warning systems within five years. The V20 and G7 launched the Global Shield against Climate Risks, bolstering vulnerable countries against extreme weather<fnref n="68" />. Germany's €170 million grant and the UK's commitment to suspend debt repayments following climate disasters further amplify global efforts.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* As COP28 approaches, the focus shifts to the operationalization of the loss and damage fund, SNLD's full functionality, and global initiatives. Ensuring an inclusive and transparent approach to modalities and bolstering financial and technical support will be pivotal for effective action on loss and damage. The commitments made at COP27 set a course for tangible progress in addressing the complex challenges posed by climate-induced loss and damage.

## D. ENHANCING AMBITION ON MITIGATION TOWARDS 1.5°C

In the pursuit of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the fourth point of the six-point agenda at COP27 directed countries to submit ambitious emission reduction targets. This section scrutinizes the outcomes related to mitigation ambition and the progress on the Mitigation Work Programme, emphasizing the need for transformative actions. Developed and climate-vulnerable countries pushed for a strong outcome to accelerate efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 2030, calling this “the critical decade.<fnref n="69" />”

### EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS: A MODEST STRIDE:

Despite the clear call for ambitious emission reduction targets aligned with the 1.5°C limit, COP27 outcomes revealed only incremental progress. The emissions gap between submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the required trajectory to limit temperature rise remained

<footnote n="68">⁶⁸ World Resources Institute (2022), op. cit.</footnote>

<footnote n="69">⁶⁹ UNDP (2022), op. cit</footnote>
evident. Few countries updated their NDCs with new ambitious commitments, underscoring the
challenge of translating intentions into concrete actions.

JUST TRANSITION STRATEGIES: A LAG IN DEVELOPMENT:

While the Glasgow Climate Pact urged countries to devise long-term strategies for a just transition to net-zero emissions by COP27, progress has been sluggish. Only a handful of countries presented new strategies in this regard. The COP27 decision emphasized the necessity for countries to communicate their long-term strategies by COP28, highlighting the urgency of robust planning for a sustainable transition. The intricate technical aspects of global carbon credits, which hold the potential to redistribute wealth from high-polluting nations to those conserving crucial natural assets and curbing emissions, have been deferred to 2023. Unfortunately, minimal progress was achieved in the current year, casting a shadow on the initial optimism generated by the broad agreement on governing carbon markets at COP26. The inability to navigate the specifics of implementation at COP27 stands as a notable setback and represents a failure in translating principles into actionable details.

MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME: A FRAMEWORK FOR SCALING AMBITION:

COP27 witnessed progress in designing the Mitigation Work Programme, established at COP26 to amplify ambition and implementation leading up to 2030⁷⁰. The program's duration through 2026 was decided, with a broad sectoral focus and recommendations for annual COP decisions. However, it fell short of setting new emissions reduction goals. The decision opted for a "non-prescriptive" and "non-punitive" approach, maintaining a bottom-up NDC policy-setting approach<fnref n="71" />.

ACCOUNTABILITY CHALLENGES AND THE URGENCY OF PEAKING EMISSIONS:

<footnote n="70">⁷⁰ UNFCCC, “Sharm el-Sheikh mitigation ambition and implementation work programme”, 2022, URL: https://unfccc.int/topics/mitigation/workstreams/mitigation-work-programme</footnote>

<footnote n="71">⁷¹ Chandrasekhar A., Dunne D., et al, « COP27 : key outcomes agreed at the UN Climate talks in Sharm el-Sheikh », Carbon Brief, November 2022</footnote>
Countries refrained from adopting robust accountability mechanisms for governments to enhance emission reduction targets. The COP27 outcome missed an opportunity to call for global emissions to peak by 2025, a crucial milestone according to IPCC recommendations<fnref n="72" />. The decision reiterated the COP26 stance on coal phase-down and fossil fuel subsidy phase-out without progressing beyond these foundational principles.

## FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY FOCUS:

Surprisingly, COP27 failed to directly address the primary driver of the climate crisis: fossil fuel production and use. While calling for an increase in the share of renewable and low-energy sources, particularly in Africa, there was a noticeable absence of concrete measures to confront fossil fuel production. Rich and high-emitting countries' emission reduction targets were noted to fall short of aligning with the imperative of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. This stands in stark contrast to the growing consensus, including from the International Energy and the IPCC, that for governments to meet global climate targets there cannot be any oil, gas or coal new development<fnref n="73" />.

## MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME'S CRITICAL ROLE:

The Mitigation Work Programme must evolve into a mechanism ensuring the implementation of COP commitments at both global and national levels. Countries are urged to reassess their 2030 emission reduction targets, aligning them with the imperative of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C<fnref n="74" />. The outcomes of the first Global Stock Take (GST) regarding mitigation should guide collective agreement on emission-cutting pathways in key sectors.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* As COP28 looms, the focus sharpens on implementing robust mitigation actions. The Mitigation Work Programme holds the potential to catalyze transformative

<footnote n="72">⁷² IPCC, “Opening address by IPCC chair at the Ministerial Segment of the HLPF on SD, ECOSOC, General Assembly”, July 18th 2023, URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/2023/07/18/opening-ipcc-chair-hlpf-ecosoc-general-assembly/</footnote>

<footnote n="73">⁷³ Juhasz A., “Governments should commit to fossil fuel phase out at COP27: fossil fuels drive the climate crisis”, Human Rights Watch, November 16th 2022: URL: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/11/16/governments-should-commit-fossil-fuel-phase-out-cop27</footnote>

<footnote n="74">⁷⁴ UNFCCC, “Sharm el-Sheikh mitigation ambition and implementation work programme”, op. cit.</footnote>
change, and countries must prioritize aligning their targets with the 1.5°C imperative. The urgency of peaking emissions and fostering accountability mechanisms remains paramount for steering the world towards a climate-resilient future.

## E. SUPPORTING AFRICAN JUST TRANSITIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The fifth point of the six-point plan called for a commitment to new, additional, and appropriate financing and technology support by developed nations at COP27. The focus was on supporting African and other developing countries in their economic diversification and energy transition endeavors. This section scrutinizes the outcomes, highlighting the centrality of just transitions, renewable energy deployment, and the imperative for decisive actions in the face of an unprecedented global energy crisis. Africa's potential was in some ways recognized, with the EU signing deals with Egypt and Namibia on green hydrogen. Other than a side event there was nothing in the cover document on the centrality of Africa's minerals to a green transition. Despite the imperative need for $25 billion annually to achieve universal energy access in Africa by 2030, COP27 witnessed minimal advancements in this critical area<fnref n="75" />. The cover document conspicuously lacked new commitments for energy financing. However, during the course of COP27, the World Bank introduced an initiative aimed at accelerating electrification in Africa, striving for universal access by 2030 through targeted mobilization of private finance.

Remarkably, the 'High-Level Forum on Financing Energy Transition in Africa at COP27' saw prominent voices, including the IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, advocating for the acknowledgment of Africa's distinctive energy landscape and the necessity to leverage all available resources<fnref n="76" />. Contrary to expectations, the final cover document failed to recognize Africa's unique energy situation, despite an initial mention in the draft.

### A CALL FOR JUST TRANSITIONS: OPERATIONALIZING A VISION:

COP27 witnessed a pivotal moment as it underscored the need for new, additional, and appropriate financing and technology support. This support aims to facilitate economic diversification and energy

<footnote n="75">⁷⁵ Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2022), op. cit.</footnote>

<footnote n="76">⁷⁶ African Union, "High-level forum on financing energy transition in Africa at COP27", November 14th 2022, URL: https://au.int/fr/node/42363</footnote>
transition, grounded in sustainable development plans tailored to national circumstances. The integration of African-led, decentralized, and democratized renewable energy initiatives into just transition pathways marked a significant step. The cover decision at COP27 overlooked references to the plight of hundreds of millions lacking access to electricity and clean cooking, which were initially present in the draft cover decision circulated earlier. While the acknowledgment of energy access as a crucial element of a 'just transition' is noteworthy, the final decision did not incorporate mentions of the vast populations lacking electricity and clean cooking. The concept of a 'just transition' was emphasized, emphasizing that it must be nationally defined and encompass social protection dimensions to alleviate potential impacts associated with the transition.

## RECOGNITION OF JUST TRANSITION PRINCIPLES: SOCIAL DIALOGUE AND PARTICIPATION:

Numerous references to just transition in COP27 outcomes emphasized the importance of meaningful social dialogue, social protection, and stakeholder participation. These principles were not just recognized but operationalized in the decision-making process, acknowledging the multifaceted nature of a just transition.

## RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT: A MIXED VICTORY:

While COP27 included a groundbreaking call to accelerate renewable energy deployment, a nuanced victory emerged. The push to increase the share of renewables and low-energy sources in Africa's energy mix aligned with the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan<fnref n="77" />. However, the inclusion of fossil gas as a purported low-emission source drew criticism due to methane leakage concerns and community injustices in the extraction process. The challenges associated with leapfrogging were notably absent from the discussions. The continued requirement for backup fuels due to intermittent renewables in the power sector and the absence of widespread alternatives to fossil fuels in challenging sectors like steel, cement, and heavy transport were not duly acknowledged. This oversight raises concerns about the prospects of leapfrogging and its implications for Africa's development. Despite requests from the EU, India, and the US to advocate for the 'phasing down' of all fossil fuels, this broader approach, beyond coal, did not find its way into the final document. Nevertheless, the COP26 commitments to 'phase down' coal and 'phase out' inefficient fossil fuel subsidies were

<footnote n="77">⁷⁷ UNFCCC, « Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan: Decision -/CP.27», Advanced version, 2022, URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2Cover%20decision.pdf</footnote>
reiterated. An impactful initiative, the 'Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative,' was introduced to offer technical and policy support<sup>78</sup>. However, a notable absence was the lack of accompanying energy financing for this initiative, raising questions about its feasibility and impact.

## THE SHARM EL-SHEIKH IMPLEMENTATION PLAN: URGENCY AMIDST CHALLENGES:

Despite the plan's failure to commit to phasing out all fossil fuels, it acknowledged the global energy crisis's unprecedented nature. Recognizing the urgency of transforming energy systems for security, reliability, and resilience, the plan emphasized rapid and just transitions to renewable energy throughout the critical decade of action<sup>79</sup>.

## ESTABLISHMENT OF A JUST TRANSITION WORK PROGRAMME: TOWARD COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING:

COP27 took a substantial step by establishing a work programme on just transition. This program aimed to consider the transitions of countries and stakeholders toward long-term pathways aligning with the Paris temperature goal. It introduced an annual high-level Ministerial roundtable on Just Transition, starting at COP28 in Dubai, focusing on ambitious and equitable climate actions.

## THE NAIROBI DECLARATION: UNLOCKING FUNDING FOR TRANSITION:

The Nairobi Declaration proposed innovative financing mechanisms for African countries to unlock funds for transition and promote sustainable resource use<sup>80</sup>. Proposals included new debt relief and

<footnote n="78"><sup>78</sup> COP27, « COP27 Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative (AJAETI): Under the leadership of the COP27 Preisdency of the Arab Republic of Egypt», COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh Egypt, 2022</footnote>

<footnote n="79"><sup>79</sup> Ibid.</footnote>

<footnote n="80"><sup>80</sup> African Union, "The African Leaders Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change and Call to Action", AfDB, 2023, URL:</footnote>

<footnote><https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/2023/09/08/the_african_leaders_nairobi declaration_on_climate ch ange-rev-eng.pdf></footnote>
restructuring interventions, extending sovereign debt tenors, and incorporating a 10-year grace period.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* As COP28 approaches, there is a critical need to agree on the scope and operational modalities of the Just Transition Work Programme. Decisions should advance a comprehensive understanding of just transitions, converging pathways to low emissions and climate-resilient development, and underscore the role of climate finance. The program should translate into policy-relevant recommendations, safeguarding communities, empowering the marginalized, and ensuring a rights-based approach for climate migrants, refugees, and future generations.

## F. MAXIMIZING THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE TO HIGHLIGHT EQUITY

The sixth point of the six-point plan at COP27 focused on maximizing the Global Stocktake (GST) to highlight equity, a critical element in addressing the scale of the climate crisis. This section delves into the outcomes, discussing the comprehensive discussions during COP27, the procedural steps taken, and the crucial role the GST plays in shaping future climate negotiations.

### GST MANDATE: A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW:

COP27 emphasized the need for comprehensive GST discussions, creating a platform to scrutinize implementation gaps, challenges, and the overall progress made. The mandate sought a science and equity-based reset of climate negotiations, recognizing the urgency in addressing the immense challenges posed by the climate crisis.

### GST AND EQUITY INTEGRATION: A SUBSTANTIVE CALL:

The plan underscored the importance of substantive equity-based outcomes from the GST. It aimed to inform Parties as they prepare their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and foster enhanced international cooperation. The emphasis on equity reflected a commitment to a fair and just climate action framework.

### COP27 GST DISCUSSIONS: A TECHNICAL DIALOGUE FRAMEWORK:
COP27 facilitated GST discussions through a Technical Dialogue, featuring interactive sessions among all stakeholders. Thematic topics, including adaptation, loss and damage, mitigation, finance, technology, and capacity building support, were explored. Procedural conclusions were adopted under the Joint Contact Group, signaling a push for early political consideration of the GST outputs in 2023.

## SHARM EL-SHEIKH IMPLEMENTATION PLAN: ACKNOWLEDGING GST PROGRESS:

Through the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan, COP27 welcomed the progress of the first global stocktake<fnref n="81" />. The decision noted the balanced, comprehensive, and inclusive nature of the technical dialogue, recognizing its pivotal role in shaping future climate actions. The inaugural Global Stocktake represents the most comprehensive evaluation of worldwide efforts against climate change to date. It synthesizes information from a broad spectrum, encompassing over 1,600 documents derived from diverse origins<fnref n="82" />. The assessment is not confined to inputs from scientists and governments alone; it actively incorporates insights from cities, businesses, farmers, Indigenous communities, civil society, and various other stakeholders. The key insights, disclosed through a Synthesis Report in September, vividly reveal the considerable gap between the current state of global initiatives and the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. The report accentuates the diminishing timeframe for effective intervention and highlights the urgent need for robust actions. It accentuates the critical nature of implementing more substantial measures before the second Global Stocktake in 2028. Failure to do so may lead to the alarming prospect of global temperatures surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold.

## INTEGRATION OF EQUITY IN THE GST PROCESS: A NEED FOR CLARITY:

While COP27 emphasized that the first GST's outcome should inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support, clarity on integrating equity considerations into the GST process remained elusive. The path forward in incorporating equity principles into the GST framework requires focused attention.

## 2023: A PIVOTAL YEAR FOR THE GST:

<footnote n="81">⁸¹ UNFCCC, SHarm el Sheikh Implementation Plan, op.cit.</footnote>

<footnote n="82">⁸² Srouji J., Cogan D., « WHat is the ‘Global Stocktake’ and how can it accelerate climate action?», World Resources Institute, September 8th 2023, URL: https://www.wri.org/insights/explaining-global-stocktake-paris-agreement</footnote>
The year 2023 is slated to be pivotal for the GST, marking the transition from the technical phase to the political and decisive phase of the first GST. The mandate is clear: ensure that the GST process delivers on its commitments and catalyzes greater ambition across all elements of climate action.

*Forward Trajectory and Considerations:* As governments move towards finalizing the technical phase and advancing to the political and decisive phase of the first GST in 2023, there is a critical need to address the integration of equity considerations. A concerted effort is required to ensure that the GST becomes a robust mechanism driving enhanced climate actions with fairness and equity at its core. By the end of COP28, countries must agree on how they will leverage the Stocktake's findings to keep the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C alive.

### III. THE ROAD TO COP28

#### THE 2023 AFRICA CLIMATE SUMMIT

The Africa Climate Summit (ACS) convened in September 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya, where African government leaders and key stakeholders gathered to explore strategies for fostering sustainable growth and devising climate finance solutions for Africa and the global community.

In the course of the summit, leaders from AU member states endorsed the Nairobi Declaration, which will serve as the foundational document for Africa's unified stance in the ongoing global climate change discussions, extending to COP28 and beyond. The declaration underscores the imperative for economic transformation aligning with Africa's climate imperatives. Key points include<fnref n="83" />:

1. A commitment to elevate Africa's renewable generation capacity from 56 GW in 2022 to a minimum of 300 GW by 2030.

2. Advocacy for a novel financing framework attuned to Africa's requirements, encompassing debt restructuring and relief. This involves the development of a new Global Climate Finance Charter, a process slated for accomplishment through UNGA and COP mechanisms by 2025.

3. Proposal for a global carbon tax regimen, encompassing levies on fossil fuel trade, maritime transport, and aviation. Additionally, consideration is given to supplementing this with a global financial transaction tax (FTT) to generate dedicated, affordable, and accessible finance for impactful climate investments on a substantial scale.

<footnote n="83">⁸³ African Union, “African Leaders Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change and Call to Action”, 2023</footnote>
However, some members of civil society expressed concerns that the summit's agenda disproportionately favored the positions and interests of the Global North<fnref n="84" />. Specific criticism was directed at carbon credits and carbon sequestration, deemed as flawed solutions granting undue concessions to polluters. Additionally, the summit faced censure for not adequately prioritizing the enhancement of climate adaptation capacities within African communities.

## THE BRIDGETOWN INITIATIVE AND COP28

A two-day gathering of preeminent economists and financial leaders convened under the auspices of the COP28 Presidency has reached a consensus on crucial next steps essential for establishing a new framework for global climate finance<fnref n="85" />. This consensus aims to propel progress not only at COP28 but also chart a course leading beyond to COP29 and COP30.

The meeting involved distinguished economists from the Independent High-Level Expert Group (IHLEG) collaborating with figures from prominent global institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, ECF, and IFC, in addition to representatives from the COP28 and COP27 Presidencies and UN Climate Change High-Level Champions. Held in Abu Dhabi from August 15-16, these discussions yielded agreement on presenting recommendations for a fresh international climate finance framework at COP28. The participants also committed to delivering a definitive roadmap outlining the practical implementation of these recommendations.

The upcoming framework will notably focus on crucial aspects, including addressing debt distress in vulnerable nations and delineating the role of the private sector in ramping up financial support. Acknowledging the growth in private finance flows, the participants emphasized the imperative for an even swifter expansion to meet the estimated annual requirement of $2.4 trillion USD by 2030. This substantial sum is deemed necessary to effectively tackle climate change in emerging markets and developing economies.

The envisaged roadmap is poised to serve as a comprehensive guide for various entities—UN agencies, the IMF, WB, regional MDBs, national governments, and the private sector—offering both short and long-term plans aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Successful agreement on this roadmap at COP28 is anticipated to empower leaders across public, private, and third sectors to execute a coherent action plan for international climate finance.

<footnote n="84">⁸⁴ Kariuki T., Furnad D., « Nairobi's Climate Summit Elicits Mixed Reactions», Science Africa, September 25 2023, URL: https://scienceafrica.co.ke/2023/09/25/nairobis-climate-summit-elicits-mixed-reactions/</footnote>

<footnote n="85">⁸⁵ COP28 UAE, « COP28 UAE Presidency to convene world-leading economists in the UAE to drive progress on the reform of international finance», Press Release, August 2023</footnote>
Ahead of COP27, Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, announced the Bridgetown Initiative, a policy program for reforming the global financial architecture and development financing in the context of a convergence of three global crises (debt, climate, and inflation)<fnref n="86" />. The Bridgetown Initiative proposes the creation of new instruments and the reform of existing institutions to finance climate resilience and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Avinash Persaud, advisor to the Prime Minister and key advocate of the Bridgetown Agenda, suggests several global mechanisms for fund availability:

* Increasing liquidity (through Special Drawing Rights or SDRs),

* Increasing loans (mainly through MDBs),

* Increasing private sector investments for "green transformation,"

* Reforming IFIs, and

* Other structural changes in macroeconomic governance, including taxation, trade, IDA, etc.

The Bridgetown Agenda also advocates for the inclusion of disaster and pandemic clauses in all loans granted by major donors to ensure automatic debt suspension in case of climate disruptions or other major disturbances.

The Bridgetown Initiative seeks to facilitate access to international financing, an effort that aligns with the COP28 Presidency's own commitment to modernize global financial infrastructure to support climate action. COP28 is likely to delve into the details of the Bridgetown Agenda 2.0, the successor to the original Bridgetown Agenda. This may involve a thorough examination of the proposed mechanisms for financing resilience to climate change.

The response from civil society to the Bridgetown Initiative (BI) has been nuanced, acknowledging Barbados's leadership in advocating for financial system reform and climate finance. However, concerns have been raised, particularly regarding an apparent overreliance on private sector finance, a strategy that previously fell short under the World Bank's "billions to trillions" agenda<fnref n="87" />. The BI 2.0, introduced in April 2023, made slight adjustments, abandoning the Climate Mitigation Trust and leaving the modality for private sector investment open-ended. It also emphasized debt restructuring and advocated for a fairer international trade system aligned with just climate action.

<footnote n="86">⁸⁶ Feminist Action Nexus for Economic and CLimate Justice, « Retour sur l'Initiatve Bridgetown : une analyse et une critique féministes systémiques », 2023</footnote>

<footnote n="87">⁸⁷ Sriskanthan G., Lauron T., Williams D., « The Bridgetown Initiative – Fit to finance climate justice ? », Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, June 5 2023, URL: https://rosalux.nyc/bridgetown-initiative-climate/</footnote>
Despite these adjustments, concerns persist about the BI's reliance on existing undemocratic
International Financial Institutions (IFIs) for financing distribution. The BI 2.0 lacks specifications on the
housing and governance of proposed modalities, raising worries about parallel financing systems
outside UN oversight. Additionally, there's a disconnect between the BI and existing UN tools, such as
the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund, causing frustration.

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

COP27 marked significant strides in loss and damage but showed limited progress in other critical areas. COP28 must capitalize on these achievements, addressing the pressing climate crisis underscored by recent scientific findings. In the realm of adaptation, the COP should endorse a robust framework, anchored in science-based indicators, targets, and metrics, steering toward the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This framework should inform the 1st Global Stocktake (GST). A consensus on escalated financing for adaptation and resilience is imperative, focusing on vulnerable communities and implementing the decision to double adaptation finance.

Parties should converge on a substantive decision concerning the Sharm el Sheikh work program on agriculture and food production, fostering climate-resilient agriculture and equitable development in Africa over the program's 4-year duration. Regarding loss and damage, the Transitional Committee should align on recommendations for the operational modalities and institutional design of the newly formed loss and damage fund, attuned to the needs of developing countries. COP28 must then adopt these recommendations. Simultaneously, the operational launch of the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage (SNLD), the constitution of its Advisory Board, and the selection of the host agency for its secretariat should occur. Furthermore, concluding the longstanding governance arrangements of the Warsam International Mechanism (WIM) is essential.

In the arena of climate finance, progress must be secured on enhanced climate finance delivery by
developed countries, upholding the USD 100 billion goal and cumulative USD 700 billion by 2025.
Prioritize increased adaptation financing, advance negotiations on the New Collective Quantified
Finance Goal (NCQG) with defined sub-goals and transparent requirements. Also, advocate for reforms
in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to augment climate finance, improve access, and facilitate
concessional financing. COP28 should yield a substantive GST outcome, spurring greater ambition
across all climate action facets, with a core emphasis on equity. Emphasizing just transitions is pivotal,
ensuring a shift to a low-carbon economy that benefits all communities without leaving the most
vulnerable behind. Concluding the operational modalities for the Just Transitions work program at
COP28, with operationalization slated for 2024, is crucial.
## CONCLUSION

In the evolving landscape of global climate governance, Africa has undergone a transformative journey. The continent's unified stance, solidified in the 2009 Nairobi Declaration, marked a turning point, enhancing Africa's coherence, unity, and influence in global climate negotiations. Key to this progress were the pivotal roles played by the AU and its committees, ensuring effective representation of Africa's interests. Overcoming initial challenges, African negotiators have secured improved access to resources through strategic partnerships and funding, including vital support from the African Development Bank.

Africa, contributing less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, faces a disproportionate vulnerability to climate change. Despite its minimal contribution to emissions, the continent bears the brunt of climate-induced events, impacting millions, causing economic losses, and resulting in underreported deaths. Climate change acts as a potent threat multiplier, exacerbating instability, political issues, and societal challenges. Warming rates on the continent surpass the global average, affecting diverse ecosystems, staple crops, and vital fisheries. Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to millions, while desertification has encroached upon 45% of Africa's land. Persistent financial challenges, coupled with a significant allocation of funds to fossil fuels instead of adaptation, underscore the urgency for a paradigm shift. Estimated costs associated with climate change-induced losses in Africa range between $290 and $440 billion for the period 2020-2030

Adaptation efforts in Africa are multifaceted, focusing on information sharing, financial support, and on-the-ground measures. Priority areas include ensuring food security, sustainable water management, ecosystem-based adaptation, and widespread climate education. Energy emerges as a critical concern, necessitating a transition to renewable sources, policy reforms, and increased private sector investments. Adaptation initiatives must intricately address critical sectors like agriculture, coastal fishing, and the security of food supply chains. Leveraging opportunities presented by the AfCFTA, carbon credit markets, and accessing resources from institutions such as the AfDB becomes paramount.

Despite the majority of African countries signing and ratifying the Paris Agreement, formidable challenges persist in addressing climate change. An information deficit, inadequate funding, lack of unified stances, and weak coordination hinder effective climate action. Weather reporting falls below recommended standards, creating a substantial information gap. National approaches to climate
change policy, guided by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), often clash with regional policies and economic plans. The heterogeneity in adaptation situations reflects variations in capacity, political willingness, and commitment among nations. Notably, while developed countries like South Africa and Kenya lead in crafting National Adaptation Plans, others, despite resource constraints, exhibit strong political commitment, as evidenced in the cases of Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Rwanda, and Togo.

The inaugural Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi in 2023 brought to the forefront a fundamental divergence in perspectives among countries. While some advocate for a transition to renewable energy, others emphasize the role of fossil fuels in economic development. The summit's declaration calls for the phasing down of coal and the abolishment of fossil fuel subsidies, acknowledging the considerable interests in fossil fuels in certain African nations. A prominent challenge emerged in the debate on gas as a transitional energy source. Some African ministers argue that gas can address development gaps, fostering economic prosperity and facilitating the achievement of net-zero goals. However, this proposal faced opposition, with critics asserting that it could divert attention from critical climate finance and adaptation priorities, particularly evident in the discussions at COP27.

In line with the strategic vision outlined by the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), the presentation of COP27 outcomes follows a meticulous six-point plan. Strategically unveiled ahead of COP27, this plan establishes a comprehensive framework to address the urgent challenges posed by the climate crisis, placing emphasis on Africa's unique vulnerabilities and the imperative for decisive global action. The presentation's structure mirrors this plan, ensuring a coherent and systematic exploration of COP27 outcomes.

The first dimension of the plan focuses on the "Delivery of Enhanced Climate Finance and Support."
The UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance's reports set the stage, revealing a 12% increase in global climate finance but a shortfall from international public sources. Despite commitments made, COP27 witnessed a lack of concrete actions, emphasizing the challenge of timely financial support. Reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and the launch of the Green Climate Fund's Second Replenishment further underscored the financial landscape.

The second dimension, "Strengthening Adaptation Action and Support at COP27," reveals challenges in meeting Africa's expectations for a concrete framework. While COP27 initiated the development of a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), it fell short of providing a robust structure with science-based indicators. Concerns persisted about the doubling of adaptation finance by 2025, and procedural complexities in accessing finance were highlighted. Positive developments included
pledges of USD 230 million to the Adaptation Fund and the launch of the Sharm el-Sheikh Adaptation
Agenda.

COP27 achieved a significant milestone in the third dimension, "Addressing Climate-Induced Loss and Damage." Responding to a longstanding plea, a fund dedicated to loss and damage was established. The roadmap outlined activities, including dialogues on loss and damage finance, with expectations for decisions at COP28. Additionally, COP27 concluded negotiations on the institutional arrangements for the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage (SNLD). Progress was made on the governance structure and host selection process, with plans for full operationalization by COP28.

The fourth dimension, "Enhancing Ambition on Mitigation Towards 1.5°C at COP27," presented mixed outcomes. While COP27 urged countries to submit ambitious emission reduction targets, the progress reflected incremental steps. The emissions gap persisted, and progress in devising long-term strategies for a just transition was slow. The program through 2026 aimed to amplify ambition, but robust accountability mechanisms for emission reduction targets were not adopted. COP27 missed an opportunity to call for a global emissions peak by 2025. Countries are urged to reassess their 2030 emission reduction targets to align with the imperative of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

The fifth dimension, "Supporting African Just Transitions and Sustainable Development at COP27," faced criticism for including fossil gas as a low-emission source. COP27 established a work programme on just transition, aiming to align transitions with the Paris temperature goal. The annual high-level Ministerial roundtable on Just Transition, starting at COP28, focuses on ambitious and equitable climate actions.

The sixth dimension, "Maximizing the Global Stocktake to Highlight Equity at COP27," centered on comprehensive GST discussions to scrutinize implementation gaps, challenges, and overall progress. The Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan welcomed the progress of the first global stocktake, noting its balanced, comprehensive, and inclusive nature. Procedural conclusions were adopted under the Joint Contact Group, signaling a push for early political consideration of the GST outputs in 2023.

In conclusion, COP27 outcomes, intricately aligned with the AGN's six-point plan, highlight both achievements and challenges across critical dimensions. The need for decisive global action, particularly in financial support, adaptation, mitigation, loss and damage, just transitions, and equity, is underscored. The interconnected nature of these dimensions emphasizes the urgency of collaborative efforts to address the complex and pressing issues posed by the climate crisis.

Africa should approach COP28 with a strategic and coordinated effort to ensure that the outcomes address the pressing climate challenges facing the continent and reflect the principles of equity, justice, and sustainable development.
## RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations serve as a summary of the main points of discussion that will take place during COP28 and how they can be used to advocate for Africa's special interests:

### ADAPTATION:

* **Framework Development:**

* Advocate for the adoption of a robust framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) at COP28.

* Emphasize the importance of science-based indicators, targets, and metrics to achieve the GGA.

* Ensure the framework informs the 1st Global Stocktake (GST) in 2023.

* **Funding Commitments:**

* Push for scaled-up financing and investment for adaptation and resilience.

* Focus on vulnerable communities and implement the decision to double adaptation finance.

* **Sharm el Sheikh Work Program:**

* Call for a substantive decision on effective modalities for the 4-year Sharm el Sheikh work program on agriculture and food production.

* Promote climate-resilient agriculture and sustainable development in Africa.

### LOSS AND DAMAGE:

* **Fund Operationalization:**

* Engage in discussions to finalize and adopt recommendations from the Transitional Committee for the operational modalities and institutional design of the loss and damage fund.

* **Santiago Network on Loss and Damage (SNLD):**

* Advocate for the operational launch of the SNLD at COP28.

* Encourage the constitution of its Advisory Board and the selection of the host agency for its secretariat.

* **Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM):**
* Call for the conclusion of long-standing governance arrangements for the WIM.

## CLIMATE FINANCE:

* **Enhanced Delivery:**

* Ensure progress on enhanced climate finance delivery by developed countries, including meeting the USD 100 billion goal and cumulative USD 700 billion by 2025.

* Advocate for increased adaptation financing.

* **New Collective Quantified Finance Goal (NCQG):**

* Contribute to negotiations on the NCQG with specific sub-goals and transparent requirements.

* **MDB Reforms:**

* Engage in discussions for reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to increase climate finance, enhance access, and provide concessional financing.

## MITIGATION TOWARDS 1.5°C:

* **Long-Term Strategies:**

* Emphasize the importance of countries communicating their long-term strategies.

* **Mitigation Work Programme:**

* Engage in the Mitigation Work Programme to ensure concrete mechanisms for implementing commitments made at COPs and national levels.

* Encourage annual dialogues and summary reports to catalyze stronger national mitigation ambition.

* **Emission Reduction Targets:**

* Advocate for countries to review and align their 2030 emission reduction targets with the 1.5°C imperative.

* **Global Emissions Peak:**

* Call for a global emissions peak as soon as possible and by 2025 at the latest, aligning with IPCC recommendations.

## JUST TRANSITIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:

* **Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative:**
* Highlight the importance of nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and regenerative agriculture.

* Push for technology transfer and capacity-building support for effective restoration projects.

* **Operationalization of Just Transitions Work Programme:**

* Advocate for the agreement on operational modalities for the Just Transitions work programme at COP28, with operationalization by 2024.

**GLOBAL STOCKTAKE (GST) AND EQUITY:**

* **Comprehensive GST Outcome:**

* Strive for a substantive GST outcome at COP28 that catalyzes greater ambition across all elements of climate action.

* **Equity Focus:**

* Emphasize the importance of just transitions, ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon economy benefits all communities and leaves no one behind.

Additional points of discussion:

**CLIMATE JUSTICE FUND:**

* Negotiate for the establishment of a Climate Justice Fund to access additional funding for climate adaptation and restoration purposes.

**NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS:**

* Use COP28 to highlight the importance of nature-based solutions, including reforestation and afforestation.

**TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND CAPACITY BUILDING:**

* Advocate for technology transfer and capacity-building support to enable and implement restoration projects effectively.

**UNIVERSAL ENERGY ACCESS:**

* Emphasize the need for commitments to financing universal energy access in Africa by 2030.

* Advocate for new commitments on energy financing during COP28 negotiations.

**THE BRIDGETOWN INITIATIVE**
* Push for stronger integration of proposed reforms within the UN framework, connecting the BI to existing tools like the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund developed under the UN climate talks.

* Ensure that operationalization aligns with principles and modalities established through democratic processes and cross-country consensus at the UN.

* Advocate for a diversified approach to financing that goes beyond an overreliance on private sector funding.

## CLIMATE JUSTICE AND PHASING DOWN FOSSIL FUELS:

* Stress the importance of including references to climate justice in COP documents.

* Advocate for the phasing down of all fossil fuels, not just coal, in alignment with EU, India, and US requests.

## AFRICA'S UNIQUE ENERGY SITUATION:

* Highlight Africa's unique situation regarding energy and the need to utilize all its resources for a just transition.

* Call for acknowledgment of Africa's unique situation in final COP documents.

## ACTIVE PARTICIPATION IN TECHNICAL DIALOGUE AND GST PROCESS:

* Ensure active participation in Technical Dialogue sessions on key thematic topics.

* Advocate for early and robust engagement in the GST process, moving from the technical phase to the political and decisive phase.

# BIBLIOGRAPHY

## REPORTS AND INSTITUTIONAL PAPERS

ACSS, "African biodiversity loss raises risk to human security", Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2022

ACSS, "Rising sea levels besieging Africa's booming cities", African Center for Strategic Studies, 2022
African Development Bank Group, The African Circular Economy Alliance, URL: https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/topics/circular-economy/african-circular-economy-alliance-acea

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African Union, "African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022-2032), 2022

African Union, "Green Recover Action Plan (2021-2027), 2021, URL: https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/40790-doc-AU_Green-Recovery-Action-Plan_ENGLISH1.pdf

African Union, "High-level forum on financing energy transition in Africa at COP27", November 14th 2022, URL: https://au.int/fr/node/42363

African Union, "The African Leaders Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change and Call to Action", AfDB, 2023, URL: https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/2023/09/08/the_african_leaders_nairobi declaration on climate_change-rev-eng.pdf

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COP27, « COP27 Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative (AJAETI): Under the leadership of the COP27 Preisdency of the Arab Republic of Egypt», COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh Egypt, 2022

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UNFCCC, « Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan: Decision -/CP.27", Advanced version, 2022, URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2Cover%20decision.pdf

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## ACADEMIC PAPERS

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## MEDIA ARTICLES AND PRESS RELEASES

Chandrasekhar A., Dunne D., et al, « COP27: key outcomes agreed at the UN Climate talks in Sharm el-Sheikh », Carbon Brief, November 2022

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Farand C., “African nations’ dash for gas exposes division at the UN and ‘hypocrisy’ in Europe”, Climate Home News, May 25th 2022, URL: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/05/25/african-nations-dash-for-gas-exposes-division-at-the-un-and-hypocrisy-in-europe/

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## WEBSITES

African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change, URL: https://africangroupofnegotiators.org
African Union, URL: https://au.int

Green Climate Fund, URL: https://www.greenclimate.fund/gcf-2

International Energy Agency, URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-electricity