# Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate and socio-economic change

Laurine Coré-Brazier, Patrick Veysset, Francesco Accatino

► To cite this version:

Laurine Coré-Brazier, Patrick Veysset, Francesco Accatino. Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate and socio-economic change. 76th EAAP Annual Meeting, EAAP - European Federation of Animal Science, Sep 2025, Innsbruck, Austria. 31 p. hal-05266907

HAL Id: hal-05266907

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05266907v1

Submitted on 18 Sep 2025

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# Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate change

L. Coré—Brazier, P. Veysset, F. Accatino

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INRAE

Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate change
28-08-2025 / The 76th EAAP Annual Meeting / L. Coré—Brazier, P. Veysset, F. Accatino

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RÉPUBLIQUE
FRANÇAISE

Liberté
Égalité
Fraternité

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Contact information:
[laurine.core-brazier@inrae.fr](mailto:laurine.core-brazier@inrae.fr)
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# Why studying French livestock vulnerability matters

This presentation was prepared
during the **July heatwave**

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# Why studying French livestock vulnerability matters

This presentation was prepared
during the **July heatwave**

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July 1st heatwave resulted in up to **30% milk production drop**

2025-07-01 (AROME model)

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Loss of milk
production -
Dairy cow -
Prim'Holstein
(%)

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0.0-10.0

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10.0-20.0

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20.0-30.0

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30.0-40.0

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>40.0

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A fitting reference to the climatic challenges for livestock farming in France

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Different climates and livestock systems in France

France has a variety of climate zones
and production systems

Climate events (i.e., droughts, heatwaves, floods) have a serious impact on French livestock systems

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

mardi 15 juillet 2025, Saint Donald

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22°/27° Toulouse /

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Rechercher

Accueil / Culture et loisirs / Colloques et conférences

Rocamadour. L'élevage ovin face au changement climatique

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

PME&REGIONS

Mercredi 2 juillet 2025 Les Echos 22

Alerte canicule sur les fromages AOP

3 bretonne

changer de région

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

accueil

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

replay

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Accueil / Bretagne /

Ille-et-Vilaine / Rennes

Réchauffement climatique. Coup de chaud sur les vaches, les éleveurs doivent s'adapter

<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

Les vaches n'aiment pas la chaleur et peuvent se retrouver très vite en stress thermique. • © Karine Manner / France Télévisions

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INRAO
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# Different climates and livestock systems in France

France has a variety of climate zones and production systems

**Climate events** (i.e., droughts, heatwaves, floods) have a serious **impact on French livestock systems**

But these impacts **vary from region to region and production system**

What threatens southern France may not Brittany concern at the same extent

<figure><img src="image_33.png" /></figure>

mardi 15 juillet 2025, Saint Donald

<figure><img src="image_34.png" /></figure>

22°/27° Toulouse /

<figure><img src="image_35.png" /></figure>

Rechercher

Accueil / Culture et loisirs / Colloques et conférences

Rocamadour. L'élevage ovin face au changement climatique

<figure><img src="image_36.png" /></figure>

PME&REGIONS

Mercredi 2 juillet 2025 Les Echos 22

Alerte canicule sur les fromages AOP

3 bretagne

changer de région

<figure><img src="image_37.png" /></figure>

accueil

<figure><img src="image_38.png" /></figure>

replay

<figure><img src="image_39.png" /></figure>

Accueil / Bretagne / Ille-et-Vilaine / Rennes

Rennes

Réchauffement climatique. Coup de chaud sur les vaches, les éleveurs doivent s'adapter

<figure><img src="image_40.png" /></figure>

Les vaches n'aiment pas la chaleur et peuvent se retrouver très vite en stress thermique. • © Karine Manner / France Télévisions

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INRAO
Which are the main factors
and impacts of **climate
change** in **French livestock
farming** across different
**regions** and **sectors**?

<figure><img src="image_42.png" /></figure>

INRAO

Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate change
28-08-2025 / The 76th EAAP Annual Meeting / L. Coré—Brazier, P. Veysset, F. Accatino

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Generated from artificial intelligence
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# Methodology approach: State of the art

Academic literature

Existing reviews (e.g. Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Escarcha et al., 2018) that focus on the global livestock production

Provides insights, but often doesn't capture French regional and sectoral variability

<figure><img src="image_45.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_46.png" /></figure>

# Methodology approach: State of the art

Academic literature

Existing reviews (e.g. Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Escarcha et al., 2018) that focus on the global livestock production

Provides insights, but often doesn't capture French regional and sectoral variability

**Grey literature**
(mainly project reports)

**STRONG REGIONAL ROOTS**

Explore causes, impacts, and adaptation options

<figure><img src="image_47.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_48.png" /></figure>

# Methodology approach: State of the art

Academic literature

Existing reviews (e.g. Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Escarcha et al., 2018) that focus on the global livestock production

Provides insights, but often doesn't capture French regional and sectoral variability

**Grey literature**
(mainly project reports)

**STRONG REGIONAL ROOTS**

Explore causes, impacts, and adaptation options

**Semi-directive interviews** to experts and stakeholders in France

**STRONG REGIONAL ROOTS**

Explore perceptions and change in agricultural practises

<figure><img src="image_49.png" /></figure>
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# Methodology approach: State of the art

Academic literature

Existing reviews (e.g. Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Escarcha et al., 2018) that focus on the global livestock production

Provides insights, but often doesn't capture French regional and sectoral variability

**Grey literature**
(mainly project reports)

**STRONG REGIONAL ROOTS**

Explore causes, impacts, and adaptation options

**Literature gap**
(eg. Monogastrics, Île-de-France)

No standardized protocol for synthesizing grey literature systematically

**Semi-directive interviews** to experts and stakeholders in France

**STRONG REGIONAL ROOTS**

Explore perceptions and change in agricultural practises

Snowball method: hard to strike a balance between actor and sample size

Interview responses are subjective and context-dependent

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# Methodology overview

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Number of times a region was cited

<figure><img src="image_54.png" /></figure>

INRAO

Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate change
28-08-2025 / The 76th EAAP Annual Meeting / L. Coré—Brazier, P. Veysset, F. Accatino

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## 47 documents analysed

Published between **2010-2024**, dealing with the **impacts of climate change on livestock farming**

Wide geographical coverage across French regions

Mostly technical and project reports

Produced by diverse stakeholders: chambers of agriculture, research and technical institutes, etc.

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**Ruminant systems**
Focus on cattle, sheep and goats

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**Monogastric systems**
Including pigs and poultry
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# Methodology overview

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Number of times a region was cited

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## 20 expert interviewed

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20 experts were remotely interviewed between January and May 2025 across mainland France, representing different stages of the livestock value chain

## Participant distribution

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Participants included: Advisory services (n=7), Farmers (n=6), Technical/research institutes (n=5), Training centre (n=1), and Veterinarian (n=1)

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**Ruminant systems**
Focus on cattle, sheep and goats

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**Monogastric systems**
Including pigs and poultry
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Classifying climate impacts and drivers from the sources analysed

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Classifying climate impacts and drivers from the sources analysed

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Classifying climate impacts and drivers from the sources analysed

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# Categorising climate impacts and drivers

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## Source identification

Each source was given a unique identifier (ID_source)

* Author, year, title, platform

* Keywords and methodology

<table><thead><tr><td>ID_source</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_2</td></tr></tbody></table>
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# Categorising climate impacts and drivers

<figure><img src="image_74.png" /></figure>

## Source identification

Each source was given a unique identifier (ID_source)

* Author, year, title, platform

* Keywords and methodology

## Topic identification

Each livestock sector or study area within a source receives unique identifier (ID_topic), making it possible to:

* Track multiple topics within a source

* Compare between regions and production types

<table><thead><tr><th>ID_source</th><th>ID_topic</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>D_1</td><td>D_1_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td><td>D_1_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td><td>D_1_2</td></tr><tr><td>D_2</td><td>D_2_1</td></tr></tbody></table>
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# Categorising climate impacts and drivers

## Categorisation

Each climate factor and impact is documented systematically:

* Standardised entry

* **One entry = one single row**

## Topic identification

Each livestock sector or study area within a source receives unique identifier (ID_topic), making it possible to:

* Track multiple topics within a source

* Compare between regions and production types

## Source identification

Each source was given a unique identifier (ID_source)

* Author, year, title, platform

* Keywords and methodology

<table><thead><tr><td>ID_source</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_2</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><td>ID_topic</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>D_1_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1_1</td></tr><tr><td>D_1_2</td></tr><tr><td>D_2_1</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><td>Factor cause</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Increase in annual temperatures</td></tr><tr><td>Droughts</td></tr><tr><td>Increase in annual temperatures</td></tr><tr><td>Increase in annual temperatures</td></tr></tbody></table>
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# Preliminary results: Statistical overview

## Different factors cause emerge from climate change

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# Preliminary results: Statistical overview

## Different factors cause emerge from climate change

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Overall, **droughts** are the most common, with 25.3% of all mentions, followed by **rising annual temperatures** at 22.2%.

**Heat waves** are frequently mentioned, especially in monogastric systems.
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# Preliminary results

These maps reflect expressed territorial concerns about **heatwaves**, not biophysical measurements

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# Preliminary results: Statistical overview

<figure><img src="image_83.png" /><figcaption>## Sector-specific impact perceptions</figcaption></figure>
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# Preliminary results: Statistical overview

<figure><img src="image_85.png" /><figcaption>## Sector-specific impact perceptions</figcaption></figure>

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### Ruminants

High reliance on local forage resources → vulnerable to droughts

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### Monogastrics

External feed → less exposed but not irrelevant
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# Preliminary results: Regional climate perception analysis

## Cartographie des facteurs de changement climatique en France métropolitaine

(83 sujets - juillet 2025)

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## Preliminary results: Regional climate perception analysis

### Brittany (n=15)

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High concern for **heatwaves** (x10) and **rising temperatures** (x7)

Inter-annual rainfall variability (x6) emerging as a significant concern

Strong perception of **climatic variability** in a oceanic climate

Decrease in frost days (x2) and changing rainfall patterns (x3)

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### Occitania (n=10)

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High concern about **drought** (x12) and its intensification

Rising temperatures (x5)

Heat events (x4)

Extreme weather events (x2) revealing local climate anxiety

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## Take-home messages

Climate-related challenges are numerous even for species raised in controlled environments, despite limited available information on these systems in the literature

<figure><img src="image_97.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_98.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_99.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_100.png" /></figure>

# Take-home messages

Climate-related challenges are numerous even for species raised in controlled environments, despite limited available information on these systems in the literature

## Regional differences

**The perception of climate change varies** from region to region, with areas showing different vulnerabilities depending on local production systems and historical climate experiences

<figure><img src="image_101.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_102.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_103.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_104.png" /></figure>

# Take-home messages

Climate-related challenges are numerous even for species raised in controlled environments, despite limited available information on these systems in the literature

## Regional differences

The perception of climate change varies from region to region, with areas showing different vulnerabilities depending on local production systems and historical climate experiences

## Effects on the systems

Ruminant systems are mostly associated with feeding-related problems, while monogastric systems raise major animal welfare and health concerns

<figure><img src="image_105.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_106.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_107.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_108.png" /></figure>

# Take-home messages

Climate-related challenges are numerous even for species raised in controlled environments, despite limited available information on these systems in the literature

## Regional differences

The perception of climate change varies from region to region, with areas showing different vulnerabilities depending on local production systems and historical climate experiences

## Effects on the systems

Ruminant systems are mostly associated with feeding-related problems, while monogastric systems raise major animal welfare and health concerns

## Research limitations

The current distribution of sources is not representative of all contexts across French livestock systems

<figure><img src="image_109.png" /></figure>
After 2025

What does the future
of French livestock
farming look like?

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# Future work

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## Importance of regional roots

Insights from expert interviews and grey literature provide a qualitative understanding of climate change vulnerabilities

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## Water flow modeling

The next step is to model water flows and water requirements for small agricultural regions in France by 2050

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## Strategic insights for 2050

This will assess whether future water requirements for livestock farming will be met, which in turn provides information for local adaptation strategies and policy recommendations

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Thank you for your attention

Contact information:

laurine.core-brazier@inrae.fr

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INRAE

Assessing the vulnerability of French livestock production to climate change

28-08-2025 / The 76th EAAP Annual Meeting / L. Coré—Brazier, P. Veysset, F. Accatino