# How to design the future electricity mix of Côte d'Ivoire ?

Théo Chamarande, Benjamin Pillot

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## To cite this version:

Théo Chamarande, Benjamin Pillot. How to design the future electricity mix of Côte d'Ivoire?. Casamansun 2024, Nov 2024, Ziguinchor, Senegal. hal-04871903

HAL Id: hal-04871903

https://hal.science/hal-04871903v1

Submitted on 7 Jan 2025

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# How to design the future electricity mix of Côte d'Ivoire ?

## Context :

* Rapid growth in demand for electricity in West Africa

* Multiple resources available (hydro, biomass, solar, gas)

* By 2030, -30% CO₂ emissions & renewable energy supply > 45%

## Research questions :

* What are the possible pathways for the electricity mix of Côte d'Ivoire ?

* Should we focus on cost optimization and direct CO₂ emissions only ?

* How reliable is the electricity from these different mixes ?

**Sources:**

Africa Energy Outlook 2019, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for Côte d'Ivoire, https://unfccc.int/documents/497390

## Usual design of the electricity grid:

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* Open-source model PyPSA

* 1-hr resolution over one year

* Exogenous electric demand (IEA 2040)

* Existing and planned plants

* Solar and wind potential from ERA5

* ADHI database for hydropower

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**Sources:**

Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2020; 146: 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Ekolu et al., Long-term variability in hydrological droughts and floods in sub-Saharan Africa: New perspectives from a 65-year daily streamflow dataset, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 613, Part A,2022,128359,ISSN 0022-1694,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128359.

Parzen et al., "PyPSA-Earth. A new global open energy system optimization model demonstrated in Africa", 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.12109.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019, International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019

## Least-cost optimization for 6 scenarios:

<table><thead><tr><th>Scenario</th><th>BAU biomass</th><th>BAU gas</th><th>BAU hydro</th><th>ZeroC H2</th><th>ZeroC battery</th><th>ZeroC hydro</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Biomass</th><td>Without limit</td><td>Existing only</td><td>Existing + planned</td><td>Existing only</td><td>Existing + planned</td><td>Existing + planned</td></tr><tr><th>CCGT</th><td colspan="6">No limit</td></tr><tr><th>Solar</th><td colspan="6">Limited by the available area</td></tr><tr><th>Wind</th><td colspan="6">Limited by the available area</td></tr><tr><th>Hydro</th><td>Existing only</td><td>Existing + planned</td><td>Existing only</td><td>Existing + planned</td><td>Existing + planned</td><td>Existing + planned</td></tr><tr><th>Battery</th><td colspan="6">No limit</td></tr><tr><th>H2</th><td colspan="3">No limit</td><td>No H2</td><td>No limit</td><td>No limit</td></tr><tr><th>CO₂ limit</th><td colspan="3">No</td><td colspan="3">Yes</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><tr><td>LCOE [$/kWh]</td><td>0.04</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.06</td><td>0.24</td><td>0.27</td><td>0.14</td></tr><tr><td>CO₂ [g/kWh]</td><td>2</td><td>324</td><td>190</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></table>

* Large variations of LCOE and CO₂ emissions

* High sensitivity to CO₂ limit

* Mostly one dominant source for each scenario

* Growing rate of installed capacities ?

* Demand sensitivity ?

* On-grid electricity only ?

* How to implement these mixes ?

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## Resources consumption :

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### Carbon footprint

<table><thead><tr><th>Scenario</th><th>BAU biomass</th><th>BAU gas</th><th>BAU hydro</th><th>ZeroC H2</th><th>ZeroC battery</th><th>ZeroC hydro</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>Direct CO₂ [g/kWh]</th><td>2</td><td>324</td><td>190</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><th>C footprint [g/kWh]</th><td>54</td><td>434</td><td>270</td><td>72</td><td>85</td><td>53</td></tr></tbody></table>

**Sources:**

T. Watari et al., Total material requirement for the global energy transition to 2050: A focus on transport and electricity, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 148, 2019, Pages 91-103, ISSN 0921-3449, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.05.015.

S. Deetman et al., Projected material requirements for the global electricity infrastructure - generation, transmission and storage, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 164, 2021, 105200, ISSN 0921-3449, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105200.

I. Pappis et al., Energy projections for African countries, EUR 29904 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019, ISBN 978-92-76-12391-0, doi:10.2760/678700, JRC118432

R. Besseau. Analyse de cycle de vie de scénarios énergétiques intégrant la contrainte d'adéquation temporelle production-consommation. Géotechnique. Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2019. https://theses.fr/2019PSLEM068

Champ "Baleine", Ministère des mines, du pétrole et de l'énergie, Côte d'Ivoire, https://energie.gouv ci/actualite/demarrage-de-la-production-du-champ-baleine

### Land use (ZeroC hydro)

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### Biomass use (BAU biomass)

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### Water use (BAU hydro)

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* Every scenarios consume resources

* Diversified mix allows trade-offs in resource use

* Carbon footprint : every scenario emits CO₂

* Should consider geographical distribution of impacts

* Availability of materials in the future ?

* Variability and uncertainties of the consumptions ?

* Interactions between sectors ? Not a real nexus approach

## Sensitivity to resources :

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### Biomass resource

### Gas resource

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* Highest impact from the interannual variability of hydro

* Gas production variable from year to another

* Large variations of agricultural yields for biomass production

* Exchanges with other countries ?

* Climate projections ?

### Intermittent renewable resources (Solar, Wind, Hydro)

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**Sources:**

Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2020; 146: 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Ekolu et al., Long-term variability in hydrological droughts and floods in sub-Saharan Africa: New perspectives from a 65-year daily streamflow dataset, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 613, Part A,2022,128359,ISSN 0022-1694,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128359.

Biomass yields, Our World In Data (consulted Oct. 2024), https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields

Gas production, Our World in Data (consulted Oct. 2024), https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gas-production-by-country

Gas price, International Monetary Fund (consulted Oct. 2024), https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices

## Conclusion:

* Any electricity mix has impacts, there is no "clean" mix

* Need to consider multiple incomparable criteria to design the mix

* No ideal electricity mix, but political choices

## Rethink energy modeling :

* Links with other approaches

- electrification planning

- other energy sources/uses

* Include cross-sectoral impacts

- use conflicts (e.g., water, land)

- demand evolution

- imports of energy technologies

* Consider the implementation of the mix

- real installation capacities

- technology diffusion

- social behavior and lifestyles

- impacts on populations and biodiversity