# Chapter 8: Responses to climate change in Alpine ski destinations

Lucas Berard-Chenu, Hugues François, Emmanuelle George

► To cite this version:

Lucas Berard-Chenu, Hugues François, Emmanuelle George. Chapter 8: Responses to climate change in Alpine ski destinations. A.Mandić; A. Spenceley; D. A. Fennell. Handbook on Managing Nature-Based Tourism Destinations Amid Climate Change, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp.121-135, 2024, Geography, Planning and Tourism, 9781035311248. 10.4337/9781035311255.00014. hal-04662062

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# Responses to climate change in Alpine skidestinations

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Lucas Berard-Chenu<fnref n="1" />,<fnref n="2" />, Hugues François<fnref n="2" /> and Emmanuelle George<fnref n="2" />

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Acknowledgment: this work was partly supported by Agence Nationale de la Recherche [grant number ANR-15-IDEX-0002]

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## 1. INTRODUCTION

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The ski tourism industry is a major economic sector of French mountainous regions. France is one of the largest ski markets, with about 50 million ski visits in 2019 (Vanat, 2020). According to the industry, ski tourism accounts for EUR 2 billion of French commercial exports (DSF, 2020). The vulnerability of the ski tourism industry to climate variability and long-term change has been recognised for several decades (Steiger et al., 2019). Rising global temperatures and shortened winter seasons have amplified this vulnerability, with measurable economic impacts on mountain communities reliant on ski tourism (Pickering & Buckley, 2010). To adapt to the changing climate, ski resorts have principally adopted two strategies: increasing snow reliability through snowmaking and diversifying the tourism economy. Snowmaking has advanced as a technical fix to improve snow reliability and extend ski seasons (Abegg et al., 2007) but faces issues such as water consumption and costs, leading some to question its long-term viability (Hock et al., 2019). Conversely, diversifying the tourism economy is seen as a more sustainable strategy (Steiger et al., 2021). Ski resorts are increasingly offering non-snow-related activities such as wellness centres or summer amenities to attract tourists all year round (George & Achin, 2020). These two strategies have been developed in parallel in French ski resorts for more than 30 years. On the one hand, there are growing doubts about the development of the snowmaking strategy, and the risk of maladaptation has only recently been questioned in the North American context (Scott et al., 2022). On the other hand, the economic benefits of the diversification strategy have been slow to materialise (Rouch & George, 2023), and their sustainability is not assured. This chapter proposes to use a theoretical framework of maladaptation, that is, criteria to identify backfire measures that increase risk rather than reduce it (Barnett & O'Neill, 2010; Schipper, 2020) to assess whether the evolution of the ski tourism industry in the French Alps exhibits the characteristics of maladaptation.<fnref n="1" /> The assessment focuses on snowmaking and diversification, the two main tourism adaptation techniques that prevail. Although considered independently, snowmaking and diversification coexist in mountain tourism areas, and the development paths of the ski resorts are the result of their combination. The ability of snow-based tourism to have a knock-on effect on the rest of the mountain tourism industry or, on the contrary, the possibility of developing an alternative tourist offer depends to a large extent on the robustness of the local ski industry. The joint development of these strategies is therefore a key factor in understanding the current trend of (mal)adaptation.

<footnote n="1">¹ Université d'Angers, Esthua Faculté de Tourisme, Culture et Hospitalité, UMR ESO, France</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE (LESSEM), France</footnote>
## 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND CASE STUDY

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Climate change has led to strong reductions in average snow cover amount, depth and duration in many mountain regions of the world over the past decades (Hock et al., 2019). Dueto its reliance on snow cover, ski tourism has long been identified as vulnerable to climate change impacts. In the Alps, the seasonal mean snow depth between 1971 and 2019 showed a decrease in snow depth, with an average trend of -8.4 per cent per decade; stronger trends were observed below 2000 metres above sea level (Matiu et al., 2021). Snow cover will be severely affected by projected climate change and subject to widespread decline except at very high altitudes, where temperatures will remain sufficiently low. Losses to revenues generated from ski tourism are a risk for mountain communities. Damm et al. (2017) estimate an annual loss in hotel revenues of EUR 560 million in Europe under a 2°C global warming scenario. For several years, mountain communities dependent on ski tourism have been trying to reduce the impacts of climate change and the risk of economic loss by implementing adaptation strategies.

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### 2.1 Adaptation Strategies in the French Alps

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Since the late 1980s, French ski resorts have been urged to innovate in response to declining visitor numbers and investment (Tuppen, 2000). Bourdeau (2009) also noted that the ski tourism industry in France was mature and was challenged by the loss of tourist market share in Alpine countries across Europe, competition from other destinations, new leisure practices and demands for environmental quality. At the same time, the French ski industry was working to ensure its snow reliability against natural snow variability. This was even before awareness of climate change and its impact on snow cover. The capacity of snowmaking to reduce the impacts of both inter-annual variability in snow cover and longer-term reductions due to climate change has made it the most popular technical adaptation (Abegg et al., 2007). In France the average coverage rate of ski slopes was around 14 per cent in 2004 and reached 39 per cent in 2018 (Berard-Chenu et al., 2022; Spandre et al., 2015). Snowmaking use has generated a significant body of academic literature (Steiger et al., 2019), as it is considered a short and medium-term adaptation, with its efficiency being greatest in high-altitude ski resorts due to the colder temperatures. However, its effectiveness in the long term is regularly contested due to the high water and electricity consumption, financial costs and low temperature required to operate snow guns (Steiger & Abegg, 2013).

While snowmaking has long been a strategy used by ski resorts to adapt to climate change, diversification has more recently been identified as an adaptation strategy in the French Alps through specific public policies (Rouch & George, 2023). Touristic diversification – the development and offering of non-skiing activities in ski resorts – is the second most popular adaptation strategy implemented in ski resorts after snowmaking. Ski resorts have developed a range of activities, such as hiking, mountain biking or other outdoor activities, seeking to increase the number of summer visitors. By expanding their offerings, ski resorts can continue to generate revenue and support the local economy throughout the year, not just during the winter season. Public stakeholders have mainly instigated diversification, and the tourism diversification policy was initially seen as encompassing all tourism activities not related to alpine skiing at the scale of the ski resort. More recently, in the context of European Union
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(EU) funding programmes, regional authorities have sought to develop natural and cultural heritage (for example, the creation of hiking trails or the enhancement of religious heritage) at

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<table><caption>Table 1 Overview of the snowmaking and diversification strategy implemented in the French Alps</caption><thead><tr><td></td><td>Snowmaking strategy</td><td>Diversification strategy</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Aim</td><td>To ensure reliable snow conditions forvisitors, especially when natural snowconditions are difficult</td><td>Improve the resilience of mountain communities, especially to poor winter snow conditions, by reducing dependence on skiingactivities</td></tr><tr><td>Time period</td><td>Early adopters before the 1990s Extensive development since the mid-1990s</td><td>Adopted at the beginning of the 1990s in accordance with the public policies conducted in the various territorial contexts</td></tr><tr><td>Implementation</td><td>Investment in structuring facilities such as investment in snow guns, water reservoirs, civil engineering works, grooming machines</td><td>Investment in touristic equipment or funding for touristic governance, real estate studies, development of biodiversity actions, and so on</td></tr><tr><td>Means</td><td>An annual average of 54 M€ of snowmaking investment in all ski resorts in France over the 1999–2018 period 60 M€ of public funding in the French Alps (2016–19 period)</td><td>95.6 M€ in public funding to support projects in the French Alps between 2015 and 2020</td></tr><tr><td>Scale of implementation</td><td>At the ski resort scale</td><td>Larger areas than the ski resorts, tourist destination</td></tr><tr><td>Stakeholders</td><td>An autonomous strategy, mainly provided by the ski lift operator. Local authorities and other stakeholders in the ski tourism system may also be involved</td><td>A planned strategy supported by public stakeholders at different levels: local, regional and national authorities</td></tr></tbody></table>

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the scale of a tourist destination larger than the ski resort and involving a growing number of stakeholders (Achin & George, 2019). The ongoing diversification policy (2014–27) launches projects not at the level of ski resorts but at the supralocal level, with the long-term objective of reducing the uneven polarisation of tourism by developing destinations at the scale of Alpine valleys. It is more difficult to measure the economic impact of diversified activities because they are spread over several operators, whereas the turnover and employment of ski lift companies are easier to assess. Local stakeholders, therefore, fear that diversification will not contribute to local economies to the same extent as ski tourism. However, snowmaking and diversification strategies can coexist in ski resorts, and many of them have implemented both strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Table 1 provides an overview of themain characteristics of snowmaking and diversification strategies implemented in the French Alps. It shows that snowmaking and diversification are implemented at different scales and are supported by different key stakeholders. Snowmaking is the responsibility of ski lift operators,
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whether public or private, and the operational needs of the ski area management drive its
development. Public authorities implement diversification programmes planned at the level of
their area of intervention.

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Studies in the field of ski tourism usually only assess the adaptation of ski resorts based on ski lift operators’ perspectives. For example, the literature review by Steiger et al. (2019) summarises the significant body of literature on snow reliability in ski resorts and climate change impacts, which are also well documented in the French Alps (Spandre et al., 2019). George and Achin (2020) showed that diversification is an adaptation tool, which is sometimes difficult to implement, but its potential contribution in the future climate is neither discussed nor assessed. Although ski lift operators play a dominant role in the ski tourism industry, winter tourism goes beyond the management of ski lifts and adaptation strategies implemented over the past three decades are embedded in an institutional system in which local communities play a crucial role. Socio-cultural conditions, histories, land use patterns and ownership structures have determined the development of ski tourism (Pröbstl-Haider, 2019) and induced different types of management. Flagestad and Hope (2001) highlighted two archetypal models of ski resort management: the ‘community’ and the ‘corporate model’. A business corporation often dominates the management of ski resorts in North America. Such corporations manage for profit a strategic selection of business units of service providers. The organisational framework of the ‘community model’ consists of specialised individual independent business units operating in a decentralised manner. In the community model, several stakeholders are involved in the governance of the ski destination. European ski resorts generally operate under the community model, and then adaptation measures of ski resorts rely on different actors such as private enterprises, public bodies, local politicians and residents. On the one hand, the ‘corporate model’ can be more efficient in terms of decision-making and implementation; on the other hand, the ‘community model’, with its diversity of stakeholders, can be a fertile ground for innovation. In terms of adaptation, the tourism destination can switch more quickly from one state to another in the ‘corporate model’, while governance and leadership can be more difficult in the ‘community model’ as a source of inertia. Local authorities in France have been involved in the development of ski resorts from the outset. The management of ski lifts has been the responsibility of local authorities since 1985, some of which have delegated the operation of their ski lifts to private or semi-public companies. The public authorities are, therefore, deeply involved in the management of the ski tourism industry.

Given the decentralised nature of ski resort management, adaptation measures – that is, snowmaking or diversification – have been implemented in a more or less coordinated way between the local and national levels or between the public and private sectors. In this respect, the focus on a specific actor – for example, a ski lift operator – can lead to a business-oriented assessment of the adaptation strategy. Abegg et al. (2017) argue for a tourism system approach to assess adaptation strategies in winter tourism. Wyss (2013) supports that the aggregated knowledge of the regional actors is relevant for a comprehensive understanding of how climate change affects a tourism system. Similarly, a holistic approach is more relevant for assessing the risk of implementing a maladaptation strategy at the level of the tourism system rather than at the level of a single tourism actor.
## 2.2 Frameworks to Assess Maladaptation

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Adaptation in ski tourism aims to reduce exposure and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change but can also be considered in relation to the principles of sustainable tourism development (Richins & Hull, 2016) in terms of economic, social and environmental sustainability. Economic development seeks the economic viability of the ski resort, maximising the contribution of tourism to the host destination. Social development provides a fair distribution of economic benefits, quality jobs and quality of life in local mountain communities. Sustainable environmental development enhances the quality of the landscapes, the conservation of natural areas and biodiversity. It also seeks resource efficiency with the minimisation of non-renewable resource use. Ineffective adaptation strategies can lead to maladaptation, where the action taken increases exposure and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change. Barnett and O'Neill (2010) developed a framework of five criteria to evaluate whether an adaptation can be considered maladaptive: (1) increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; (2) has high opportunity costs (environmental, social or economic) compared to alternate adaptation options; (3) disproportionately impacts on vulnerable populations; (4) reduces the incentive to adapt by creating dependencies; and (5) enforces path dependency through large infrastructural investments. Schipper (2020) introduces a dynamic perspective on maladaptation where adaptation outcomes can lead to a range of different states, ranging from effective adaptation to maladaptation. The author stresses the temporal dimensions of adaptation: outcomes may be different where a strategy is considered short or long-term. For instance, a short-term coping strategy can be applied several times, but its initial success in coping with the impacts of climate change could not allow for full adaptation. Additionally, a strategy that may be effective in one location or community may not be effective in others due to differences in vulnerability and resource availability. On a long timescale, strategies that start out to adapt or cope can become maladaptive over time. The author identifies a wide range of adaptation outcomes, from effective adaptation to maladaptation, and includes ineffective adaptation with outcomes that are essentially negligible, positive or negative. Schipper (2020) also distinguishes between planned and autonomous adaptation strategies. The former refers to deliberate actions taken by external parties who have funds and implement projects. These may include policies, programmes and projects aimed at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Planned adaptation strategies differ from autonomous adaptation, which refers to stakeholders who must adapt and make decisions independently. Maladaptation occurs differently depending on the type of adaptation strategy. Poor design and implementation by external actors is the main source of maladaptation in planned strategies, while maladaptation in autonomous strategies is caused by limited information, leading to poor decisions and insufficient capacity to take up new path development. The short-term or long-term dimensions and the planned or autonomous dimensions of adaptation measures are closely linked to the actors designing and implementing adaptation strategies.

This chapter applies Barnett and O'Neill's (2010) theoretical framework of maladaptation, enriched by Schipper's approach to maladaptation as a process whereby an adaptive strategy can become maladaptive over time. The aim is to assess the two major adaptation strategies implemented in the French ski resort over the past 30 years in order to determine whether they present criteria of maladaptation. One of the challenges of this chapter is to consider the multi-
stakeholder network involved in managing French ski resorts and to have a dynamic perspective of strategies implemented over decades.

## 3. EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

We assess the snowmaking and diversification strategies in French ski resorts over three decades using the maladaptation criterion of Barnett and O'Neill, and Schipper's framework. Ski tourism in the French Alps offers a wide range of more than 140 ski resorts, from small ski resorts managed by local authorities to large ski resorts delegated to private companies. Figure 1 shows the distribution of Alpine ski resorts according to the type of management. Publicly managed ski resorts are the most common, accounting for about 40 per cent of the total number of ski resorts. Looking at the size of ski resorts, measured by their ski-lift power, private companies operate the largest ski resorts, that is, those with the highest ski-lift power. Figure 2 shows an overview map of the ski resorts studied in the French Alps.

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1: Distribution of French Alpine ski resorts by type of management</figcaption></figure>

### 3.1 Increasing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

The French ski tourism industry heavily relies on electrical energy, since this is what cable cars and snowmaking equipment use. Thanks to the high share of nuclear energy in the French national energy mix, electrical energy is low carbon. The carbon footprint assessment of the ski tourism industry shows that tourist arrivals account for 52 per cent of the CO2 emissions of a typical day of skiing (ADEME, 2022). However, the carbon footprint can vary considerably depending on the source of tourist arrivals, especially if air transport is used. In the French Alps, we identify two major trends in the way tourists travel: an increase in the number of tourists arriving by air and a regional strategy to promote low-carbon transport to reach ski resorts. The mature domestic market in France has led large ski resorts to develop marketing strategies to attract international tourists. As stressed by Scott et al. (2022), international tourist arrivals are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions because of air travel. For example, the
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two airports in the French Alps, Chambery and Grenoble (see Figure 2), which only operate
during the winter season, both had an average of 0.5 million passengers in the period 2015–19,
compared to 130,000 pax in the period 1997–2001 (www.aeroport.fr/les-aeroports-de-l-uaf).
The development of low-cost flights explains the increase in traffic in Chambery and Grenoble
airports, where international arrivals account for 98 per cent of passengers, mainly from the
United Kingdom.

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Since 2017, regional authorities have encouraged low-carbon transport with intermodal
connections between railway stations and ski resorts. To encourage the use of trains instead
of cars, regional funds are supporting the development of high-capacity gondola lifts to connect
the valley floor with ski resorts. In the French Alps, three high-capacity gondola projects
are under way and three more are being studied (see Figure 2), and since 2016 the Auvergne-
Rhône Alpes region – a regional authority – has been supporting these projects with a €5 million
grant. High-capacity gondolas would be considered a sustainable adaptation if they reduced
GHG emissions by shifting existing demand away from high-carbon transport. If they
increased the number of arrivals without reducing the number of tourists travelling by car, this
would be maladaptation, while the absence of any positive or negative impact on CO2emissions
would be ineffective adaptation in Schipper’s sense.

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Although the carbon footprint of snowmaking may increase with the growing need for
additional man-made snow due to future climate change, its share in the carbon footprint of
ski tourism remains small compared to tourism mobility. The diversification strategy should
be considered with caution, especially if it increases the number of tourists. While skiers rarely
leave the ski resort and tend to concentrate on the ski area, summer leisure activities tend to
focus on touring and exploring a region and its attractions far beyond the ski resort’s
boundaries. If diversification promotes low-carbon transport, it can be part of a sustainable
adaptation process, whereas an increase in tourists travelling by high-carbon transport is a
maladaptation (Steiger et al., 2021). Furthermore, the pursuit of national rather than
international demand is not synonymous with a lower carbon footprint if the result is car travel.
<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2 Overview map of French Alpine ski resorts with valley lift projects and diversification programme areas</figcaption></figure>

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## 3.2 Disproportionately Burdening the Most Vulnerable

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Adaptation actions are maladaptive if they increase the vulnerability of those most at risk, such as low-income households. According to Scott et al. (2022), ski tourism has generated a dynamic housing market with two distinct socio-economic impacts on local communities. The buoyant property market is an important source of income, and the other side of the coin is an increase in the cost of living, which hits the most vulnerable first. Neither snowmaking nor diversification directly impacts the most vulnerable, but both tend to reinforce existing socio-economic trends of the French ski tourism industry on the most vulnerable without a clear distinction between them.

The progressive establishment of ski resorts has provided important economic resources for mountain communities (Lasanta et al., 2007), such as income, improvement of services and infrastructure, and the creation of ‘psychological stability’ among locals. In the mid-20th century, ski tourism was seen as an economic opportunity due to the structural decline of primary production and the lack of economic alternatives for mountain regions. Nowadays, in France, ski tourism allows local communities to stay in their region by providing around 120,000 direct jobs (DSF, 2020). High property values in ski resorts are an important source of income for some mountain communities. It generates direct income for landowners and indirect income through attractive property and construction markets.

A corollary of the attractiveness of the ski tourism industry is the high cost of living, with a lack of affordable accommodation, combined with a workforce characterised by seasonal jobs, some of which are low-skilled. For example, 13 municipalities with ski resorts are ranked among the 100 most expensive municipalities in France. The average price of accommodation in these 13 municipalities is around €8,000/m (https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8152052), while the median income in France is around €1,850/month. The pressure on land caused by the attractiveness of tourism contributes to these high costs. In addition, for reasons of profitability, a large proportion of accommodation is usually rented to tourists rather than to permanent staff or locals (Barrioz, 2020). The high prices of the housing market tend to exclude low-income households, and neither snowmaking nor diversification strategies tend to mitigate this effect.

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## 3.3 High Opportunity Costs

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Adaptation programmes may be maladaptive if their economic, social or environmental costs are high compared to alternatives. The ski tourism industry is a capital-intensive sector where ski lifts need to be updated frequently to ensure the attractiveness of the ski destination. Snowmaking is an integral part of the management of a ski resort, as it ensures that the ski area is operational each winter season. While investment in snowmaking is mostly the responsibility of the ski lift companies, they can benefit from public funding. This is a significant difference compared to North American ski resorts, where Scott et al. (2022) have shown that municipalities and taxpayers do not have to bear the cost of snowmaking investments. There is, therefore, competition between different adaptation strategies for the allocation of public funding. Subsidies for investments in snowmaking are funds that cannot be redirected to transformative projects for more climate-resilient tourism. Snowmaking projects are also
increasingly being criticised, including by local communities, for their negative externalities. Snowmaking facilities damage the mountain environment by affecting landscapes and natural resources (Casagrande Bacchiocchi et al., 2019) or by affecting destination attractiveness for non-skiers due to visual and ecological impairments (Bausch et al., 2019). Projects to build water reservoirs for snowmaking have also generated several controversies. Media coverage of these controversies at the national level has tarnished the image of the ski tourism industry, with ski tourism stakeholders complaining of a growing sense of ‘ski bashing’ in French public opinion (Bourdeau, 2019). Diversification strategies may also have environmental costs. Steiger et al. (2021) stress that the diversification strategy aims to increase the number of summer tourists, which can be ecologically problematic, especially in the case of sites that have not previously been affected by mass tourism.

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## 3.4 Reduce Incentive to Adapt

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Adaptation measures can create dependencies, especially those based on ongoing financial or technical assistance. These adaptations ultimately reduce the incentive for mountain communities to take further adaptation measures. Snow reliability gains associated with snowmaking have significantly improved the operation of ski resorts. However, the past beneficial effects of snowmaking may thus reduce the perception of climate change impacts. In addition, snowmaking systems are highly specialised equipment with no alternative use of them, so snowmaking systems are only relevant for the continuation of skiing activities.

With regard to diversification programmes, they can take a variety of forms, ranging from encouraging cooperation between stakeholders in the ski destination to promoting under-utilised existing resources (for example, cultural heritage) to funding hard infrastructure (George & Achin, 2020). The average amount of the financial package to support diversification projects from the *Espaces Valléens*, an EU and regional programme (2014–17) in the French Alps (see Figure 2), was €3.2 million, and 40 per cent of the projects funded were hard infrastructures such as spas, cultural facilities, tourism offices, and so on. Aquatic facilities or wellness centres have been the most popular hard infrastructure in ski resorts over the last decade. Diversification programmes have helped local communities to invest in such facilities without considering the operating costs. The operation of facilities can lock local communities into a development path and reduce their ability to allocate their resources differently. Heavy investment in infrastructure can be the result of a planned adaptation, such as the *Espaces Valléens* programme, or of autonomous adaptation. Diversification through infrastructure can lead to a phenomenon of ‘Disneyfication’ (Scott & McBoyle, 2006) of ski resorts as they are transformed into theme parks. The risk of this adaptation strategy is the lack of originality and attractiveness of these new activities for tourists (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013).

## 3.5 Path Dependency

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Path dependency refers to adaptation measures that involve large infrastructure investments, such as those that lock communities into a specific development path and limit their ability to adapt to future climate change. Berard-Chenu et al. (2023) showed that decades of investment and infrastructure development in snowmaking have led to specialisation in the ski tourism
industry. Continued investment in snowmaking may lead to overspecialisation, which could jeopardise long-term sustainable adaptation. The pursuit of snowmaking is driven by several lock-in effects: an existing base of specialised assets, an accumulation of know-how and institutional and political support to defend snowmaking projects. Snowmaking may lock mountain communities into this specific adaptation path, as public policy and local authorities contribute to snowmaking investment projects in French ski resorts. Ski tourism has been the mainstay of the mountain economy in the French Alps for more than half a century. Local communities have developed a strong attachment to this way of life, making it difficult to implement a tourism transition beyond ski tourism or consider alternative economic models. This strong attachment has induced a ski tourism-oriented labour market that is conducive to a cognitive lock-in: a situation where workers become ‘locked in’ to a particular set of skills or knowledge, making it difficult to move to new roles or industries. The tourism-oriented labour market significantly impacts local policies and transitional measures, which can reinforce existing dynamics.

In contrast, diversification seeks to prevent tourism destinations from entering a path-dependency situation. The aim of the diversification strategy is to promote path branching. Again, projects implemented as part of a diversification policy can lead to both sustainable adaptation and maladaptation, depending on their nature and how they are integrated into the tourist destination. Where public authorities are leading the diversification strategy, Bohn et al. (2023) show that the prescriptive nature of policies and funding requirements risks limiting established stakeholders with conservative projects. Accordingly, the risk of maladaptive outcomes resulting from the diversification programme is not excluded.

## 3.6 Maladaptation Risk as a Process

From Schipper’s framework of maladaptation, snowmaking and diversification initially presented the characteristics of a ‘coping strategy’ (Schipper, 2020). Coping strategies are implemented in response to the impact of sudden or unusual events, expecting the ‘normal’ situation to return soon. Snowmaking and diversification were initially seen as short-term responses to help ski resorts get through a bad winter season: snowmaking facilities provide a minimum of snow in the snow-poor season, while diversification supplies alternative activities in both the winter and summer seasons. However, Schipper (2020) warns that coping strategies are usually costly and may become maladaptive over time if the situation does not improve. The increasing frequency of challenging winter seasons has already prompted ski resort stakeholders to systematise snowmaking facilities and diversification programmes. Snowmaking has introduced a new vulnerability: the adaptation of snowmaking efficiency to a warmer climate. As a technical adaptation fully dedicated to skiing, it also has the characteristic of being a path-lock, with few opportunities for reversal. The diversification strategy addresses the impact of climate change – that is, the reduction in the number of reliable snow days – in the short or medium term. It does not fully address the root causes of vulnerability, as diversification does not aim to transform mountain tourism by overtaking skiing tourism with another type of tourism. However, diversification can be a first step towards effective adaptation of mountain destinations. Finally, on Schipper’s spectrum from adaptation to maladaptation, snowmaking has more characteristics of maladaptation than diversification.
## 4. IMPLICATIONS AND MALADAPTATION ASSESSMENT CHALLENGES

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Based on our empirical research, it remains a challenge to have a framework that clearly assesses whether a climate change adaptation strategy is maladaptation or not. Practitioners and policymakers wishing to assess the risk of a strategy being maladaptive should carefully consider three factors.

First, adaptation strategies to climate change should be seen as a dynamic and evolving process in which future outcomes may differ from current and past outcomes. A limitation of the Barnett and O'Neill framework is the lack of an evolutionary perspective on the risk of maladaptation. Given the state of knowledge at the end of the 1990s, the initial snowmaking adaptation strategy could have been considered a sustainable adaptation in terms of the Barnett and O'Neill criteria. In fact, the first snowmaking systems were not implemented systematically, while the increase in slope coverage and the amount of snowmaking required eventually raised financial and water issues that were not initially a concern. In this sense, Schipper's framework for considering adaptation as a process rather than an outcome shows that snow-making and diversification allow the status quo to be maintained in ski resorts. However, as the climate continues to change, the impacts on ski tourism are increasing, and coping strategies that have been successful in helping mountain communities get through a difficult winter season may become maladaptive over time as the situation worsens.

Second, the effectiveness of adaptation strategies also depends on the specific context in which they are implemented. Maladaptation should be assessed on the basis of the location and organisational context of ski tourism destinations. As tourism is a place-based economy, the adaptation strategy should be assessed in the local context. This need for local assessment is in line with Scott et al. (2022), who highlight the need for the local context to assess whether or not snowmaking is a maladaptive strategy. An organisational perspective stresses the diversity of stakeholders involved in adaptation strategies. In the context of climate change adaptation, there is a potential for moral hazard in the French case due to the fact that some ski resorts are operated through public-private partnerships, where a private company operates ski lifts for a certain period of time under a contract with the local authority. Moral hazard occurs when an economic agent takes risks because he does not have to bear the full consequences of those risks. Private companies may not have a strong incentive to invest in adaptation measures because the assets will be returned to the local community at the end of the public-private partnership agreement. Ski lift operators think in terms of a business timeframe, which is determined by the payback period of their equipment. From the lift operator's perspective, snowmaking is seen as an appropriate technical adaptation, while from the perspective of local communities trying to implement sustainable adaptation, the business timeframe may be too short. Private ski lift companies often have more resources, such as engineers and lawyers, than local communities, which can make it difficult for local communities to negotiate fair contracts with private companies on an equal footing. This can lead to an imbalance of power between the parties, with the private companies having more control over the negotiations and the outcome (Gerbaux & Marcelpoil, 2006). Multi-annual investment programmes and public-private partnership agreements are important tools that local authorities should carefully consider. Mountain communities could use them to encourage private companies not only
to pursue the same ski tourism path but also to plan sustainable transitions in mountain destinations.

The third challenge of qualifying whether an adaptation strategy may fall into maladaptation is partly due to the difficulty of identifying these attributes on the ground. It is important to develop measurable indicators or thresholds. While it has become easier to measure GHG emissions, it remains difficult to measure what constitutes a 'disproportionate impact', a 'high opportunity impact' or a reduction in the 'incentive to adapt'. In line with Scott et al. (2022), we find that the challenge of a five-criteria maladaptation framework is to define a potential tipping point at which it can be said that a maladaptive situation has been reached. Barnett and O'Neill's (2010) framework can be used in different ways, as it does not define whether one criterion with maladaptive outcomes is sufficient to consider a strategy as maladaptive. Our results suggest that an adaptive strategy may be partially maladaptive or may become increasingly maladaptive over time.

## 5. LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH

While our study aims to provide overarching insights into snowmaking and diversification strategies outcomes, these should be understood as a starting point for what should be in-depth evaluations of individual ski resorts or tightly defined clusters of ski resorts. Recent theoretical considerations on the assessment of adaptation/maladaptation recognise that the outcome of any adaptation is intrinsically local and context-specific (Reckien et al., 2023). In the French Alps, outcomes of adaptation strategies can vary dramatically from one ski resort to another, depending on many factors such as local climate conditions, economic pressures, natural resources access, stakeholders diversity, local governance arrangements and perceptionsof adaptation needs. Localised case studies provide a more nuanced understanding of the context-specific factors that influence the effectiveness and sustainability of adaptation strategies, but the challenge is to identify the common key factors explaining the success or failure of such strategies.

To deepen understanding of the outcomes of adaptation strategies in the context of ski tourism, future research should extend beyond the ski resort. A more fine-grained analysis would involve identifying and characterising a range of stakeholders, from local governments and private businesses to environmental organisations and local communities. Identifying vulnerable groups that may disproportionately bear the negative impacts of such strategies is particularly important in assessing maladaptation. These could include low-income residents, seasonal workers or communities dependent on natural resources that may be affected by adaptation measures, such as water supplies in the case of snowmaking. By broadening the lens to include these groups and their interests, future studies could provide a more nuanced understanding of the complexities and trade-offs involved in adaptation planning. This would contribute to developing strategies that are effective in the short term and equitable and sustainable in the long term.

The two adaptation strategies examined in this chapter seldom question the high stakes of land artificialisation, the carbon-based mobility of demand, and mountain areas' high dependence on ski tourism. Accordingly, both strategies have a potentially maladaptive
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outcome, partly because they do not pursue a rethinking of the way in which ski tourism is carried out. These strategies show that in mountain areas, there are deep barriers to the development of sustainable tourism beyond the existing ski tourism industry. Finally, the persistent myth that ‘there is no alternative’ (Bourdeau, 2019) – that is, the current lack of a substitute activity as lucrative as ski tourism for mountain communities – influences the adaptation strategies we have examined in this chapter. This strong belief may also increase the risk of maladaptive outcomes by influencing adaptation strategies.

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