<table><tr><td></td><td>The characteristics of the anthropogenic noise that Antarctic marine life is exposed to, how exposure varies over space and time, and what the environmental factors are that determine its effects, are all yet to be thoroughly investigated in the region. Identification of "sound-sensitive" Antarctic species, potential "sound hotspots" in Antarctica and cumulative effects are beginning to emerge, although this research is at its early stages.<br/><b><u>Crosscuts Human Presence</u></b><br/>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>52. How will next-generation contaminants affect Antarctic and Southern Ocean biota and ecosystems?</td><td>This is an area of ongoing research and many studies continue to detect a variety of pollutants in the Antarctic covering both traditional and emerging pollutants.<sup>228</sup> However, most studies are short-term or one-time with little long-term monitoring to detect trends. Numerous studies on Antarctic species have found relationships between exposure to contaminants and effect responses on several levels from cellular processes, such as hormone regulation and oxidative stress, to demographic parameters, such as mortality and fecundity.<sup>229</sup> In recent years, attention has been paid to investigating physiological and behavioral stress responses; such as endocrine and vitamin disruption, oxidative stress, parental care and foraging efficiency; in association with contaminant exposure in Antarctic seabirds and their prey.<sup>230,231</sup> Global climate change may influence anthropogenic pollution as it is released from thawing permafrost in Antarctica.<sup>232</sup> Plastic and microplastic pollution have emerged as an unexpected contaminant for the region, with seabirds being most at risk in the Southern Ocean<sup>233</sup> and many studies are starting to find microplastic pollution in the Antarctic region.<sup>234,235,236</sup> See Q.53.</td></tr><tr><td>53. What is the exposure and response of Antarctic organisms and ecosystems to atmospheric contaminants (e.g. black carbon, mercury, sulphur, etc.), and are the sources and distributions of these contaminants changing?</td><td>Atmospheric monitoring of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Antarctica remains scarce. Ultra-low concentrations of atmospheric POPs have been found in coastal areas of the Ross Sea, Antarctica.<sup>237,238,239</sup> The occurrence of POPs in Antarctica is mainly attributed to long-range atmospheric transport from northern usage areas. It has been suggested that local contamination and volatilization from ice were potential sources for POPs in the atmosphere.<sup>238</sup> A variety of POPs have also been detected in East Antarctic air samples, though long-term monitoring is largely absent.<sup>239</sup> Lichens are recognized as an important biomarker of pollutants as well as having significant potential for tracking climate change.<sup>240</sup> Studies have begun to examine contaminants such as black carbon, sulphur and zinc and other metals.<sup>241</sup> See Q.52.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere and Human Presence</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>54. How will the sources and mechanisms of dispersal of propagules into and around the Antarctic and Southern Ocean change in the future?</td><td>Dispersal pathways have been studied<sup>176</sup>, but quantification of propagule pathways and sources, and the relative contributions of natural versus anthropogenic pathways remain undetermined. For terrestrial systems, the nature and extent of propagule pressure continues to be documented via interceptions at stations<sup>242,243</sup> but these efforts are not well coordinated across the region, and little modelling is available to distinguish the probability of natural versus anthropogenic propagule transfer.</td></tr><tr><td>55. How will invasive species and range shifts of indigenous species change Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems?</td><td>In marine systems, few instances of alien species establishment have been documented<sup>244</sup>, and possibly no new reports since 2014. For terrestrial systems, the situation is different, with new records being found for both the Antarctic Peninsula region and the sub-Antarctic.<sup>245,246</sup> In Antarctic marine environments recent studies have evaluated the risk of alien species establishment and expectations are that alien species will have major impacts on ecosystems, but no analyses of specific impacts have been made. Modelling investigations for alien terrestrial species establishment have also been undertaken with predictions covering the present to 2100.<sup>247,248</sup> Some work on plant traits has demonstrated how these are changing and will likely change sub-Antarctic systems.<sup>249</sup> Range shifts of indigenous species have been predicted and some predicted specific range changes, such as lithodid crabs moving into shallow sites from deep water, are described as potentially overturning assemblage structure with catastrophic effects for some species. For terrestrial systems virtually no work on expected range shifts has taken place, though some monitoring of such shifts has taken place for the Antarctic's two vascular plant species.<sup>250</sup> No detailed modelling of likely impacts in marine or terrestrial ecosystems has been conducted. See Q48.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>56. How will climate change affect the risk of spreading emerging infectious diseases in Antarctica?</td><td>Numerous virology studies in Antarctica have been carried out over the past several decades. However, the development of long-term systematic epidemiological monitoring is lacking. Thus, it remains challenging to determine how climate change will affect the risk of spreading emerging infectious diseases in Antarctica. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) approaches have been recently used in the Antarctic to study soil<sup>251</sup>, lakes<sup>252</sup>, and marine viral ecology<sup>253</sup>, and several viral families have been detected and characterized.<sup>254</sup></td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>Antarctic ecosystems are dominated by microorganisms, and viruses play important roles in Antarctic aquatic systems and food webs (both marine and freshwater environments).<sup>255</sup> Recent studies reveal the introduction, persistence, and evolution of emerging RNA viruses of importance for human and/or animal health in Antarctica.<sup>256</sup> With their high mutation rates and unique dynamics, RNA viruses have a great capability for evolution and can infect aquatic animals (invertebrates, fishes, seabirds, and marine mammals). Future warming, which will cause changes in sea ice, will influence viruses and their microbial hosts through changes in the timing, magnitude, and composition of phytoplankton blooms.<sup>257</sup> Seabirds, flying and potentially migrating (i.e. skuas, petrels) but also diving and more sedentary (i.e. penguins), play a key role in the epidemiology of avian viruses.<sup>258,259</sup> Climate change will influence the abundance and distribution (affecting their breeding and foraging habitats) of vectors, but also their migration routes, which may influence the risk of spreading emerging infectious diseases in Antarctica.<sup>258,259</sup></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>57. How will increases in the ice-free Antarctic intertidal zone impact biodiversity and the likelihood of biological invasions?</td><td>Currently no intertidal areas are ice free in winter on the Antarctic continent. Lower latitude intertidal areas are often highly species rich. Many species identified attached to ships travelling to Antarctica inhabit intertidal or shallow subtidal zones.<sup>244,260,261</sup> No specific studies have evaluated how increased ice-free intertidal areas will affect Antarctic biodiversity, but the issue has been raised as important in recent publications.</td></tr><tr><td>58. How will climate change affect existing and future Southern Ocean fisheries, especially krill stocks?</td><td>The past, current and expected future effects of climate change on krill and fish populations have been investigated for years.<sup>191,262</sup> In the Peninsula region, krill ranges are moving southwards leading to northerly declines in abundance. What the situation is elsewhere, however, remains poorly known because of the absence of repeated systematic surveys. Recent studies focus on how climate change will affect fisheries in the Southern Ocean through its impact on sea ice and physical access to fishing grounds, and thus on the stock of this most abundant keystone species of Antarctic marine food webs and also on the krill-dependent predators.<sup>263,264</sup> Decreasing sea ice due to climate change will lead to more areas being accessible and potentially subject to higher exploitation rates in the future, and the potential interaction between fishery and top predators may be intensified as seals and/or penguins are constrained to smaller or more fragmented ice habitats within areas where fisheries may focus future efforts.<sup>265</sup> Krill may play a role in global food security in the longer term.<sup>264</sup> Therefore, in the context of global change, increasing pressures from fisheries on krill stocks are expected. A contraction of the</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>available krill spawning habitat under the business-as-usual emission scenarios (up to 80%) raises serious concerns about the potential threats to the Antarctic marine food-web and the fate krill fisheries might face during this century.<sup>266</sup> Current management of the krill fishery sets conservative catch limits however, it does not yet account for trends in stock size or distribution.<sup>191,267</sup></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>59. How will linkages between marine and terrestrial systems change in the future?</td><td>Increases in precipitation and glacial discharge to the ocean are anticipated to impact the marine ecosystem in terms of particle loading (turbidity), biogeochemical cycling and the stability of the water column. Field research-informed modeling studies are beginning to shed light on these processes.<sup>268</sup> Observations from coastal King George Island ecosystems including marine benthic communities<sup>210</sup> and zooplankton assemblage dominated by krill suggest that marine organisms are highly sensitive to glacial water inputs.<sup>269</sup> There are also suggestions that brines from Taylor Valley and the Whillians ice stream inputs into Ross Sea may fuel marine productivity – though these are more speculative and not included. Glacier retreat under climate change will offer new ice-free areas for Antarctic benthic communities.<sup>270,271</sup> Loss/retreat of ice shelves and coastal glaciers will make new ice-free areas available for the establishment of top-predator breeding sites. They will import substantial amounts of nutrients from the oceans to the Antarctic coast, and guano/nutrient runoff from the coast will increase the availability of nutrients in the nearshore marine environment supporting phytoplankton blooms and benthic communities (as observed in sub-Antarctic islands).<sup>272</sup> Linkages bringing in resources from the sea onto land include marine predators greatly increasing nutrients in terrestrial environments.<sup>273</sup> How these effects will change in the future depends on factors that affect wider marine ecosystems and hence predator food supplies. Predicting the future for these is still poorly developed. Studies in fiords on the Antarctic Peninsula have shown them to be highly diverse and abundant biodiversity hotspots<sup>274</sup> where high biodiversity is linked to weak meltwater influences, low sedimentation disturbance, and high and varied food inputs. Arctic fiords have been seen to move from this state to one of very low biodiversity when climate change induced increases in freshwater input and sedimentation have inundated assemblages.<sup>275</sup> It is thought that the Antarctic Peninsula fiords are at an earlier stage of environmental alteration and are likely to become more like their Arctic counterparts as runoff increases. Furthermore, there appear to be thresholds in biodiversity that are mediated by sedimentation in Antarctica.<sup>210,275</sup></td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>60. What are the impacts of changing seasonality and transitional events on Antarctic and Southern Ocean marine ecology, biogeochemistry, and energy flow?</td><td>The impacts of changing seasonality and large-scale transitions (e.g. glacier melt) are areas of interest, and progress is evidenced by literature in the recent years. Key amongst the studies are reports of shifts in the timing of sea ice formation and melt which has numerous cascading impacts in the marine ecosystem.<sup>276</sup> Ice-melt and collapse-related events have also been studied revealing impacts on productivity and biogeochemistry. The Amundson Sea ecosystem was modeled for the first time and the importance of iron biogeochemistry was highlighted.<sup>277</sup> Likewise, in the Weddell Sea Larsen ice shelf collapse region polynya formation provided new zones of enhanced primary production.<sup>278</sup> A recent paper discusses the impacts of melting on the fjord system and biogeochemistry/carbon production.<sup>279</sup><br/><strong>Crosscuts Southern Ocean (new)</strong><br/>The responses of species to sea ice directly influences the vertical structure of zooplankton during the winter-spring transition.<sup>280,281</sup> The strength of summertime carbonate saturation depends on seasonal changes of sea ice, water column stratification and primary production. Antarctic ecosystem structure is highly responsive to small perturbations and large-scale climate or weather events creating physical changes may trigger cascading ecological responses.<sup>217,282</sup></td></tr><tr><td>61. How will increased marine resource harvesting impact Southern Ocean biogeochemical cycles?</td><td>Several recent studies aimed to model the impact of current warming on the distribution of Antarctic krill over the last century showing a contraction southward, and on projected changes of its habitat (e.g. spawning) by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century.<sup>266</sup> The changing distribution of Antarctic krill is perturbing the krill-centered food-web and may affect biogeochemical cycling.<sup>190</sup> Increasing pressures from fisheries on krill stocks, which are known to ingest for instance lithogenic and biogenic iron and act as an iron reservoir in Southern Ocean surface waters, will therefore affect Southern Ocean biogeochemical cycles. A recent study determined the potential impacts of fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality on marine biogeochemistry which predict an impact of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.<sup>283</sup><br/><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br/>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>62. How will deep sea ecosystems respond to modifications of deep-</td><td>The Deep ocean contains many species. It is oxygenated by the global overturning circulation that drives all major currents on Earth. This circulation has been shown to have</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>water formation, and how will deep sea species interact with shallow water ecosystems as the environment changes?</td><td>decreased by 15% since the mid-20<sup>th</sup> century and to be on a general decreasing trend because of weakening deep water thermohaline formation at the poles.<sup>284</sup> There is general global concern for deep sea ecosystems because of this reduction in global circulation. There have been past periods when global oceans were stratified, and the deep ocean had large areas of low oxygen.<sup>285</sup> Areas of low oxygenation in the deep sea have increased in number in the last 50 years.<br/><br/>One mechanism assisting the movement of deep-water species onto the continental shelf in Antarctica is the intrusion of circumpolar deep water onto the continental shelf that is climate warming driven.<sup>286</sup> This should assist the colonization of shallower sites by deeper living species, including lithodid crabs (Q.48 and Q.55). There are no studies to date that have quantified the strength of links between Antarctic shallow and deep-water ecosystems and therefore, no predictions of how these linkages will change in future. However, the similarity between Antarctic shallow and deep-water ecosystem structure is greater than at lower latitudes, and this is thought to be an effect of glacial cycles moving species in and out of deeper habitats.<sup>287</sup></td></tr><tr><td>63. How can changes in the form and frequency of extreme events be used to improve biological understanding and forecasting?</td><td>Extreme events have facilitated biological understanding since the Scan. The grounding of a large iceberg off Ross Island - and the cascading impacts on ocean circulation and sea ice concentration allowed studies of Adelie Penguin foraging efficiency to be evaluated in which typical phenotypic plastic responses were suppressed.<sup>288</sup> In another event, where warm winds resulted in snow and ice melting, cascading impacts were observed in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems over an extended time frame. Coupled biological-hydrologic and oceanographic observations will improve understanding of responses to change.<sup>217,289</sup> Observation of responses in the terrestrial McMurdo Dry Valley ecosystems provided demonstrated that response time scales can vary, even within the same ecosystem.<sup>216</sup> Lastly, a recent extreme event - Brunt ice shelf collapse in the Weddell Sea - provided an opportunity to study associated biological impacts, which at present, appear to have eliminated the habitat for a large emperor penguin colony<sup>290,291</sup>, a scenario already observed in East Antarctica, King George V Land with the calving of Mertz Glacier ice tongue.<sup>292</sup><br/><br/><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere</strong><br/>Foehn winds (warm downslope winds on the lee side of mountains) are extreme episodic events that have a wide range of impacts in Antarctica, including dominating the climate of the McMurdo Dry Valleys,<sup>293</sup> preconditioning the Larsen Ice Shelf for disintegration<sup>278</sup> and</td></tr></table>
<table>
   <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td>favoring summer melting on the eastern side of the Ross Ice Shelf.<sup>294</sup> These spatially persistent phenomena have a wide range of biological impacts.</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>64. How can temporal and spatial "omic-level" analyses of Antarctic and Southern Ocean biodiversity inform ecological forecasting?</td>
    <td>The extent to which this question has been addressed varies widely among taxa. For some groups, little has been done except to highlight the potential of the approach.<sup>213</sup> For others, some progress has been made<sup>295</sup>, though it remains limited. Significant advances have been made through microbial metagenomics approaches adopted by various groups to understand and forecast microbiota community responses.<sup>172,296,297,298,299</sup></td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>65. What will key marine species tell us about trophic interactions and their oceanographic drivers such as future shifts in frontal dynamics and stratification?</td>
    <td>Studies are primarily in ecosystem oceanography (before the Antarctic Science Horizon Scan), e.g. aiming to assess the role of mesoscale physical/ocean dynamics and processes on the formation and occurrence of biological hotspots.<sup>300</sup> Investigating biological responses to environmental changes and identifying some species (and their long-term monitoring) as bioindicators of environmental changes, is a common approach. However, while the study of the spatial distribution of key marine species hotspots, such as seabirds, provides information on oceanographic features (e.g. frontal dynamics and stratification) and their future changes and shifts, this approach remains limited. However, top-predators, especially marine mammals, have been used for several decades as oceanographic platforms, and several studies have pointed out the interest in biologging/animal-borne sensors to collect data to improve ocean observing systems.<sup>301,302</sup></td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>66. How successful will Southern Ocean Marine Protected Areas be in meeting their protection objectives, and how will they affect ecosystem processes and resource extraction?</td>
    <td>Over the last decade, there have been several proposals for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) within the Southern Ocean under the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR).<sup>303</sup> Two MPAs have been designated near the South Orkney Islands (in 2009) and in the Ross Sea (2016), but trade-offs in the CCAMLR-MPA process raise some major issues that will impact potential effectiveness.<sup>304,305</sup> Some Parties to CCAMLR have interpreted the term 'rational use' in the Convention text as '...the unrestricted right to fish...' and, most recently, the term has been evoked in opposition to the establishment of MPAs in Antarctica.<sup>306</sup> The international negotiations in this area have been investigated, with emphasis on the complexity of international diplomacy in CCAMLR.<sup>307</sup></td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <td>67. What ex situ conservation measures, such as genetic repositories, are required for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean?</td>
    <td>One of the first initiatives regarding genetic repositories was established in 2017 at the University of Waikato - The Antarctic Genetic Archive in which DNA samples (particularly from specially protected areas) can be deposited and shared.<sup>308</sup> Additional biodiversity measures that have seen development recently is due to the activities of SCAR's expert</td>
   </tr>
  </table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>group in Antarctic biodiversity informatics, in which members have established Antarctic biodiversity Information Facility and the Microbial Antarctic Resource System.<br/><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br/>Genetic variation in fish stocks has been studied with a recognition that commercial fishing might make some stocks more prone to higher levels of variation. Studies of genetic characteristics are used to assess adaptive potential and inform conservation management. What deserves further attention is how Antarctic biological materials are collected, stored and analyzed. There is a lack of clarity about access and benefit sharing, especially when such genetic repositories are likely to attract commercial and political value.<sup>309</sup> If ex-situ conservation measures are required, then questions need to be posed about reporting and sharing.</td></tr><tr><td>68. How effective are Antarctic and Southern Ocean conservation measures for preserving evolutionary potential?</td><td>Little is known about whether current conservation measures will deliver effective conservation of Antarctic ecosystems and biodiversity into the future, as little attention has been given to abundance and range dynamics and to evolutionary potential. The latter is especially concerning given recent studies demonstrating the significance of Antarctic marine fauna in terms of diversification rates compared with those elsewhere.<sup>310,311</sup> Given the pace of change in the Polar Regions, this issue is high priority. Nonetheless, substantial work has been done on investigating the variety of ocean environments that require marine area protection.<sup>312,313</sup> In terrestrial systems, much has been done to assess the effectiveness of the Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) network. The work has assessed coverage of the Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions<sup>314</sup> and biodiversity generally.<sup>315</sup> Threats to protected areas have also been investigated.<sup>316</sup> See Q.66.<br/><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br/>Although the designation of protected areas in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean remains the topic of much investigation, including about the diplomacy required to establish them<sup>317</sup> very little discussion of future resilience of the protected area system because of changing organismal and ecosystem characteristics has taken place. Rather the focus tends to be on international diplomacy and the overall state of the protected area system. Other aspects of conservation such as the use of Specially Protected Species measures are not commonly discussed.</td></tr></table>
<table><caption>Table S10. Summary of qualitative (subjective) expert assessments of progress in answering “Antarctic Life on the Precipice” questions rated as: 1 - no or little progress, 2 - moderate progress, 3 - major progress and 4 - answered. When a question crosscuts other clusters an additional perspective(s) on progress is provided. (New) – indicates a question that was not originally identified as cross-cutting in the Scan. For detailed commentary on progress and supporting references see Table S9.</caption><thead><tr><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan Question<sup>1,2</sup></td><td>Qualitative (Subjective) Rating (1-4)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>43. What is the genomic basis of adaptation in Antarctic and Southern Ocean organisms and communities?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Research is in the beginning phases of discovery considering the diversity of Antarctic and Southern Ocean life.</td></tr><tr><td>44. How fast are mutation rates and how extensive is gene flow in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>Mainly unknown especially for mutation rates and more studies are needed on gene flow.</td></tr><tr><td>45. How have ecosystems in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean responded to warmer climate conditions in the past?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>There is progress regarding the last Mya (glacial cycles of warming and cooling) with identification of refugia [both marine and terrestrial habitats]. Knowledge is starting to be developed for some marine and terrestrial systems, but ecosystem responses remain largely unknown.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere: 1</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Southern Ocean</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>46. How has life evolved in the Antarctic in response to dramatic events in the Earth's history?</td><td><strong>1-3</strong><br>1, 2 or 3 depending on the adaptation and event. Significant adaptations are known in relation to cooling (antifreeze, hemoglobin loss etc.) and in other areas [e.g., refugia] good progress has been made.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td><strong>Dynamic Earth</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>47. How do subglacial systems inform models for the development of life on Earth and elsewhere?</td><td><strong>1-2</strong><br>In the early stages of discovery, much work remains to be done to address this question.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Eyes in the Sky</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>48. Which ecosystems and food webs are most vulnerable in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean, and which organisms are most likely to go extinct?</td><td><strong>2-3</strong><br>There is progress on this question in many areas, but it is variable between different ecosystems.</td></tr><tr><td>49. How will threshold transitions vary over different spatial and temporal scales, and how will they impact ecosystem functioning under future environmental conditions?</td><td><strong>1-2</strong><br>There is little information on how ecosystem function will be impacted by future threshold transitions, and even thresholds remain largely unknown.</td></tr><tr><td>50. What are the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and environmental change drivers on Antarctic and Southern Ocean biota?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>There has been little research on the effects of multiple stressors on Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems.</td></tr><tr><td>51. How will organism and ecosystems respond to a changing soundscape in the Southern Ocean?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>Most information on this question is derived from studies in other regions of the world's oceans. Much work remains to be done specific to the Antarctic region soundscape, organisms and ecosystems.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 2</strong><br>See above</td></tr><tr><td>52. How will next-generation contaminants affect Antarctic and Southern Ocean biota and ecosystems?</td><td><strong>2</strong></td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>Progress on this question is dependent on the contaminant as there are several chemicals recently detected in the Antarctic air, precipitation, ice, snow, marine sediment, soils and organisms. Most studies are short-term; thus, the series are not yet sufficiently long to draw unambiguous inferences concerning trends and long-term effects on biota/ecosystems. Many studies are starting to find microplastic pollution in the Antarctic region.</td></tr><tr><td>53. What is the exposure and response of Antarctic organisms and ecosystems to atmospheric contaminants (e.g. black carbon, mercury, sulphur, etc.), and are the sources and distributions of these contaminants changing?</td><td><b>2</b><br>Atmospheric monitoring of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Antarctica remains limited and little is known about exposure and/or response for a broad range of contaminants for Antarctic organisms<br><b>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere: 2</b><br>See above.<br><b>Crosscuts Human Presence: 2</b><br>From a social-science perspective, aspects of this question that require additional work include the implications of a changing climate for long-range contaminant transport patterns to Antarctica as well as locally generated contamination.</td></tr><tr><td>54. How will the sources and mechanisms of dispersal of propagules into and around the Antarctic and Southern Ocean change in the future?</td><td><b>2</b><br>Dispersal pathways have been studied, but quantification of propagule pathways and sources, and the relative contributions of natural versus anthropogenic pathways remains poorly known.</td></tr><tr><td>55. How will invasive species and range shifts of indigenous species change Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems?</td><td><b>2</b><br>In marine systems, few instances of alien species establishment have been documented. For terrestrial systems, the situation is different, with new records being found for both the Antarctic Peninsula region and the sub-Antarctic. Resultant ecological impacts remain largely unknown.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>56. How will climate change affect the risk of spreading emerging infectious diseases in Antarctica?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>There is no long-term systematic epidemiological monitoring, thus it is challenging to determine the impacts of climate change.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 2</strong><br>As above, further research is needed in terms of monitoring and tracking of the spread of infectious diseases in Antarctica as a precondition for understanding how this risk might be affected by climate change.</td></tr><tr><td>57. How will increases in the ice-free Antarctic intertidal zone impact biodiversity and the likelihood of biological invasions?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>No specific studies have evaluated how increased ice-free intertidal areas will affect Antarctic biodiversity, but the issue has been raised as important in recent publications.</td></tr><tr><td>58. How will climate change affect existing and future Southern Ocean fisheries, especially krill stocks?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>There are ongoing studies using data which are fraught with problems in terms of being able to accurately predict what the current status is of krill populations and what will happen to them.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 1</strong><br>While it is known that warming in polar waters disrupts the life cycle of krill and affects the metabolism of various Southern Ocean fish species, the ramifications for fisheries management are unknown.</td></tr><tr><td>59. How will linkages between marine and terrestrial systems change in the future?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Modest work has begun to study these linkages in Antarctica (currently this is an active area of study in the Arctic and sub-Antarctic), but predicting the future for marine-terrestrial linkages is still poorly investigated.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>60. What are the impacts of changing seasonality and transitional events on Antarctic and Southern Ocean marine ecology, biogeochemistry, and energy flow?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>There is evidence for impact from changing seasonality and large-scale transitions.</td></tr><tr><td>61. How will increased marine resource harvesting impact Southern Ocean biogeochemical cycles?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Some progress [linked to climate change] but understanding of the interaction with fisheries is limited. Several recent model studies suggest a contraction southward in distributions of krill and changes to habitats.<br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 1</strong><br>There is the potential for increased fishing pressures from states not currently involved in Southern Ocean fisheries.</td></tr><tr><td>62. How will deep sea ecosystems respond to modifications of deep-water formation, and how will deep sea species interact with shallow water ecosystems as the environment changes?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Some initial efforts, but little progress. No studies to date have quantified the strength of links between Antarctic shallow and deep-water ecosystems, and therefore no predictions can be made of how these links will change in the future.</td></tr><tr><td>63. How can changes in the form and frequency of extreme events be used to improve biological understanding and forecasting?</td><td><strong>1-2</strong><br>There have been a few studies of extreme events such as biological and ecological changes associated with ice shelf collapse.<br><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere: 2</strong><br>Foehn winds (warm downslope winds on the lee side of mountains) are extreme episodic events that have a wide range of impacts in Antarctica.</td></tr><tr><td>64. How can temporal and spatial "omic-level" analyses of Antarctic and Southern Ocean biodiversity inform ecological forecasting?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>The extent to which this question has been addressed varies widely among taxa.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>65. What will key marine species tell us about trophic interactions and their oceanographic drivers such as future shifts in frontal dynamics and stratification?</td><td><strong>1-2</strong><br>There has been some work on identifying key marine species and population shifts as bioindicators of change.</td></tr><tr><td>66. How successful will Southern Ocean Marine Protected Areas be in meeting their protection objectives, and how will they affect ecosystem processes and resource extraction?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Answers to this question are yet to be determined and, in most instances, resources have not been made available for long-term monitoring projects needed to assess designation effectiveness in reaching conservation goals.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 2</strong><br>There is a growing body of literature on marine protected areas in general, and the Ross Sea Marine Protected Area in particular, but it is too early to answer this question.</td></tr><tr><td>67. What ex situ conservation measures, such as genetic repositories, are required for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>One of the first initiatives regarding genetic repositories was established in 2017 in New Zealand.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Human Presence: 1-2</strong><br>There is a need for the standardization of protocols for organisms, including collection, storage and analysis and procedures for making these collections and the data produced widely available.</td></tr><tr><td>68. How effective are Antarctic and Southern Ocean conservation measures for preserving evolutionary potential?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Little is known about the effectiveness of conservation measures in the region for preserving evolutionary potential.<br><br><strong>Cross cuts Human Presence: 1</strong><br>See above.</td></tr></table>
<table><caption>Table S11. Expert (subjective) assessments of progress toward answering “Near-Earth Space and Beyond - Eyes on the Sky” questions supported by peer-reviewed literature citations. Comments by experts from crosscutting clusters are identified as ‘Crosscuts [name of cluster]’. The references cited are exemplars and not intended to be an exhaustive literature review.</caption><thead><tr><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan Question<sup>1,2</sup></td><td>Conclusions</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>69. What happened in the first second after the universe began?</td><td>The early universe has been investigated in two news ways from Antarctica. The gravitational lensing will tie the masses of cosmic constituents to fluctuations of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiations (CMB).<sup>318</sup> The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect informs about the momentum of these constituents.</td></tr><tr><td>70. What is the nature of the dark universe and how is it affecting us?</td><td>The search for dark matter has not progressed as quickly as expected ten years ago and remains elusive. However, with advances in neutrino detections (e.g., IceCube Neutrino Observatory) and gravitational waves (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory), a new era of “multi messenger” astronomy will revolutionize the field.<sup>319,320,321,322,323</sup></td></tr><tr><td>71. What are the differences in the inter-hemispheric conjugacy between the ionosphere and that in the lower, middle and upper atmospheres, and what causes those differences?</td><td>The hemispheric differences in solar illumination, land-mass, and tropospheric forcing generate inter-hemispheric differences.<sup>324,325,326</sup> These differences are seen in ionospheric convection patterns, and magnetospheric wave energy. In addition, a major difference between the Arctic and Antarctic polar atmospheres is the existence of the strong and persistent Antarctic polar vortex, which is thought to be caused by lower southern hemispheric temperatures over the Antarctic landmass as well as reduced overall planetary wave activity, as compared to a more dynamic Arctic polar vortex.</td></tr><tr><td>72. How does space weather influence the polar ionosphere and what are the wider implications for the global atmosphere?</td><td>The term space weather generally refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and within Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and upper atmosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems.<sup>327,328,329,330</sup> Particle precipitation modifies the atmospheric heating and conductivity of the polar ionosphere, which can disrupt radio and Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) signals, shut down electrical systems, and expose people to radiation. The polar ionosphere is subject to the convergence of energy flux driven</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>from below by the lower atmosphere, and from above by solar energization, kinetic and electromagnetic energy input driven by interactions between the solar wind and the terrestrial magnetic field, e.g., space weather. A consequence of these interactions is a highly structured polar ionosphere featuring a rich spectrum of plasma density irregularities, some on the order of hundreds of kilometers in scale size which are almost always present. This is an attribute of the polar ionosphere that is unique to terrestrial ionospheres at other latitudes. Plasma density irregularities constitute conductivity gradients which govern kinetic and electromagnetic energy input from the magnetosphere, thereby regulating the influence of space weather on the polar region. A highly structured polar ionosphere is a by-product of complex and dynamics cross-scale coupling processes that are not well understood or characterized. This lack of knowledge hinders our overall comprehension of how energy is propagated from the sun and solar wind through the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system and into the lower-atmosphere.<br/><b>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere</b><br/>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>73. How do the generation, propagation, variability and climatology of atmospheric waves affect atmospheric processes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean?</td><td>The Antarctic peninsula and surrounding ocean are recognized as a hotspot of atmospheric gravity wave activity.<sup>331</sup> Furthermore, the winter Antarctic polar vortex is a known generator of synoptic gravity waves.<sup>332</sup> The localized, regional, and global impacts of this region are not yet known.<br/><b>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere</b><br/>Where air blows over mountainous terrain waves are usually generated. These can propagate vertically and break into the stratosphere. The resulting mixing of the temperature can lead to the formation of polar stratospheric clouds.<sup>333</sup> The most active region of mountain wave formation in high southern latitudes is the Antarctic Peninsula due to its orientation at right angles to the prevailing westerly winds.</td></tr></table>
<table><caption>Table S12. Summary of qualitative (subjective) expert assessments of progress in answering “Near-Earth Space and Beyond - Eyes on The Sky” questions rated as: 1 - no or little progress, 2 - moderate progress, 3 - major progress and 4 - answered. When a question crosscuts other clusters an additional perspective(s) on progress is provided. (New) - indicates a question that was not originally identified as cross-cutting in the Scan. For detailed commentary on progress and supporting references see Table S11.</caption><thead><tr><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan Question<sup>1,2</sup></td><td>Qualitative (Subjective) Rating (1-4)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>69. What happened in the first second after the universe began?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>Progress is focused on understanding the initial conditions of structure formation and establishing the content of the universe.</td></tr><tr><td>70. What is the nature of the dark universe and how is it affecting us?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Remains elusive. Progress has been made in high energy detections, but much work remains to be done.</td></tr><tr><td>71. What are the differences in the inter-hemispheric conjugacy between the ionosphere and that in the lower, middle and upper atmospheres, and what causes those differences?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Remains elusive. Progress has been made in the operation of [hemispheric] conjugate sites, but remote instrumentation logistical support is challenging.</td></tr><tr><td>72. How does space weather influence the polar ionosphere and what are the wider implications for the global atmosphere?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Remains elusive. Progress has been made in the operation of site-specific instruments at manned stations, but remote instrumentation logistical support is challenging.<br><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>73. How do the generation, propagation, variability and climatology of atmospheric waves affect atmospheric processes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Remains elusive. Progress has been made in the operation of site-specific instrumentation, but logistical support across the broader continent is challenging.</td></tr></tbody></table>
Crosscuts Antarctic Atmosphere: 2

See above.
<table><caption>Table S13. Expert (subjective) assessments of progress toward answering “Human Presence in Antarctica” questions supported by peer-reviewed literature citations. Comments by experts from crosscutting clusters are identified as ‘Crosscuts [name of cluster]’. The references cited are exemplars and not intended to be an exhaustive literature review.</caption><thead><tr><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan Question<sup>1,2</sup></td><td>Conclusions</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>74. How can natural and human-induced environmental changes be distinguished, and how will this knowledge affect Antarctic governance?</td><td>Some work has been done on distinguishing between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change in the Antarctic, but few studies have looked at the implications and lessons for Antarctic governance. There is a need to think critically about distinctions between human and natural systems (categorically and in relation to environmental change) and how these systems are co-produced or co-entangled. From a data perspective, progress on the question is limited though it has been raised several times.<sup>334</sup> Limited work has been undertaken on the relationship between bodies of knowledge, with a focus on climate change research, and the Antarctic as an object of and for governance.<sup>335</sup> In addition, work examining national political attitudes on climate change and the role these attitudes play in Antarctic climate change research and governance concludes that, at present, perspectives on climate change are a dividing rather than unifying force.<sup>336</sup><br/><strong>Crosscuts Southern Ocean</strong><br/>Some progress made in detection/attribution in the Southern Ocean.</td></tr><tr><td>75. What will be the impacts of large-scale, direct human modification of the Antarctic environment?</td><td>This remains an important and, so far, largely unanswered question. While Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) for the establishment of permanent infrastructure (such as runways, stations, refuges, helicopter landing pads, etc.) in Antarctica require a detailed analysis of the environmental consequences resulting from the erection of permanent structures. Some EIAs include thorough and science-based assessments of environmental impacts of construction activities and new infrastructure. Some foundational conceptual work in the social sciences has been undertaken on how the human “footprint” in the Antarctic can be defined. “Human modifications” to the Antarctic environment have been</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>quantified.<sup>337</sup> Other conceptual pieces look at how human impacts as well as wilderness (values) in Antarctica can be mapped.<sup>338,339,340</sup> With the potential for larger-scale, targeted modifications of the Antarctic environment being discussed, e.g. through geo-engineering solutions to artificially buttress ice shelves<sup>341,342</sup>, more dedicated research on the impacts of such modifications – in and beyond the Antarctic – is needed.<br/><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Life</strong><br/>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>76. How will external pressures and changes in the geopolitical configurations of power affect Antarctic governance and science?</td><td>The most developed body of literature in this area examines the way polar governance is being shaped by international geopolitical shifts. It is now well established that Antarctica co-exists in a network of legal and political regimes and obligations and that science and politics inform each other. While research on the potential implications of global resource pressures – imagined and real – have been around since the 1980s, critical perspectives on the danger of the waning of traditional moral framings of the Antarctic as a continent for science are being increasingly shadowed by geo-economic narratives and pressures are now emerging.<sup>343,344</sup> This stimulates discussions around marine protected areas, biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, and a targeted regime on bioprospecting. From a geopolitical perspective, this research has focused on the changing geopolitical configurations of power via two primary registers. The first has been to focus on global players, such as China, and consider the implications of Chinese investment in Antarctic infrastructure and involvement in Antarctic Treaty System governance. as well as the broadening and deepening of larger ‘Asian’ interest and involvement in the Antarctic.<sup>345,346</sup> Opinion is split between those who think China’s is largely content with the geopolitical status quo (believing that the ATS’s structure is well-suited to a non-claimant state such as China) as opposed to those who believe that China will push its own interests and wishes more assertively.<sup>347</sup> The second strand considers whether there is a danger that Antarctic exceptionalism (e.g. Antarctica as a zone of peace and co-operation) might be compromised in the future by great power rivalries, recent development in international politics such as the annexation of Crimea by Russia and impositions of sanctions by others, and ongoing resource-related pressures.</td></tr><tr><td>77. How will the use of Antarctica for peaceful purposes and science be maintained as barriers to access change?</td><td>While, the importance of science as a “symbolic political capital”<sup>348</sup> has been examined, the relationship between changing barriers to access, gender, science, and non-violence is an area that might develop further. Normative discussions of values and practices exist, including reflections on how values, such as peace, are embedded in global legal norm. An assessment of compliance and goodwill in the Antarctic has been undertaken<sup>349</sup>, but the</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>focus is on historical assessment rather than potential future developments in the light of changes in who can access Antarctica and when and how.</td></tr><tr><td>78. How will regulatory mechanisms evolve to keep pace with Antarctic tourism?</td><td>This question has attracted considerable scholarship over the last couple of decades and involves an understanding of how Antarctic tourism is likely to develop in the future. A steady flow of papers has emerged on the topic of Antarctic tourism regulation and management,350, 351,352,353 but other than some speculative excursions354, work linking research into tourism futures and effective regulatory mechanisms has been relatively limited.355 If there are challenges facing regulatory mechanisms then the key variables have been identified: external regulation and self-regulation of industry; the level of commitment and reflexivity of operators; the diversification and growth of markets; the spatial extent of tourism activities; tourist and operator behaviour; operator networking and cohesion; and the role of, and potential, for accidents even disaster. However, Q.78 might be too normative (assuming that regulatory mechanisms need to evolve to keep pace with tourism developments) to be of interest for scholars to pursue, and might also be too complex and speculative a topic to have been successfully brought to completion (and publication) within the relatively small window of time since the Horizon Scan questions were formulated. A critical review of the emerging literature on Antarctic tourism developments356 and growing markets for Antarctic tourism, such as China357,358, as well as Antarctic tourism policy options may result in further progress in addressing this question.</td></tr><tr><td>79. What is the current and potential value of Antarctic ecosystem services?</td><td>Ecosystem services in relation to the Antarctic, as well as to oceans, are understudied.359,360 There was a proposal by the Netherlands to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in 2011 (Information Paper 95), which asks the Parties to consider the assessment of options to require payments for Antarctica's ecosystem services.361 However, so far only one study attempted to map Antarctic ecosystem services, which is an ambitious undertaking. This study focused on the Weddell Sea362 and represents a first stab at identifying how Antarctic ecosystem services could be categorized and recorded. This study calls for further research to verify the steps taken and expand their work.362</td></tr><tr><td>80. How will humans, diseases and pathogens change, impact and adapt to the extreme Antarctic environment?</td><td>Ongoing climate change combined with the cumulative human activity in the form of fishing, science and tourism is raising concerns that the polar environment is ever more exposed to foreign objects and substances including seeds, viruses and pathogen agents.363 Antarctica's extreme climate and environment does not appear to be a enough of a barrier to alien species and diseases impacting upon continental Antarctica. Accidental introduction of alien species is also acknowledged to be ever present. Pathogens, such as</td></tr></table>
enteric bacteria, have been identified as present in Antarctic wildlife such as seals and birds, and recent research notes the presence of reverse zoonosis involving transmission from human communities to seabirds. Calls for improved biosecurity measures in Antarctica are now commonplace, as it is recognised that alien species, diseases and pathogens are proving resilient.

**Crosscuts Antarctic Life**

Regarding diseases and pathogens, recent studies reveal that with their high mutation rates and unique dynamics, RNA viruses have a great capability of evolution (see review from Cristina 2019 and Q.56), which may exacerbate impact on native Antarctic wildlife.
<table><caption>Table S14. Summary of qualitative (subjective) expert assessments of progress in answering “Human Presence in Antarctica” questions rated as: 1 - no or little progress, 2 - moderate progress, 3 - major progress and 4 - answered. When a question crosscuts other clusters an additional perspective(s) on progress is provided. (New) – indicates a question that was not originally identified as cross-cutting in the Scan. For detailed commentary on progress and supporting references see Table S13.</caption><thead><tr><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan Question<sup>1,2</sup></td><td>Qualitative (Subjective) Rating (1-4)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>74. How can natural and human-induced environmental changes be distinguished, and how will this knowledge affect Antarctic governance?</td><td><strong>1-2</strong><br>Some work on distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic climate change in the Antarctic, but few studies of the implications for Antarctic governance. A need remains to consider the distinction between human and natural-induced changes and whether these changes are co-produced or co-entangled.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts All Clusters</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>75. What will be the impacts of large-scale, direct human modification of the Antarctic environment?</td><td><strong>1</strong><br>Current research focus is on understanding the impacts of small-scale and/or unintentional and undirected modification of the Antarctic environment. The potential of large-scale modification of the Antarctic environment has been discussed but its impact has not been assessed.<br><br><strong>Crosscuts Antarctic Life: 2</strong><br>See above.</td></tr><tr><td>76. How will external pressures and changes in the geopolitical configurations of power affect Antarctic governance and science?</td><td><strong>2</strong><br>There is literature examining the way in which polar governance is positioned within the wider context of, and is being shaped by, international geopolitics, and other regimes with overlapping or complementary jurisdiction.</td></tr></tbody></table>
77. How will the use of Antarctica for peaceful purposes and science be maintained as barriers to access change?

2

Some philosophical work and geopolitics research addresses aspects of this question but more targeted work is needed.

78. How will regulatory mechanisms evolve to keep pace with Antarctic tourism?

3

Antarctic tourism regulation is a topic that has attracted considerable attention and here is a growing body of work.

79. What is the current and potential value of Antarctic ecosystem services?

1

Additional work is warranted as few studies have been undertaken.

80. How will humans, diseases and pathogens change, impact and adapt to the extreme Antarctic environment?

1-2

Most of the work on this question concerns human adaptation to the extreme Antarctic environment. Some work has been done on pathogens in the Antarctic environment, but the question of how human diseases and pathogens change the Antarctic are yet to be answered.

**Crosscuts Antarctic Life: 1-2**

Limited ongoing work – see above.
<table><caption>Table S15. Summary of indications of the uptake, delivery and impact of the Scan and ARC projects' outputs. Targeted audiences are categorized by the organization and/or activity. Methods, Citations and Resources are not intended to be exhaustive but rather exemplars of the most important citations/report excerpts supporting the conclusions.</caption><thead><tr><td>Organization/Activity</td><td>Conclusions</td><td>Methods, Citations and Resources</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Scientific Literature Citations</td><td>Collectively, Scan and ARC publications have been cited some 200 times, spanning all disciplines with almost half being in the life sciences.<sup>1,2,364</sup> Citations are largely in the peer-reviewed literature (80%), but also dissertations and theses (13%), book chapters (9%), policy papers (3%) and national strategic plans (1%). Many citations (28%) noted that they were addressing priorities identified by the Scan.<sup>365,366,367,368</sup> Others (14%) point to the importance of the polar regions in the global Earth System, especially in the context of climate change. A few (4%) used the Scan to point to the paucity of data in the Antarctic in various fields and two specifically note the Scan in national science plans (e.g. National Academies of Sciences, 2015 and the joint United States/United Kingdom Thwaites Glacier project).<sup>369,370</sup> Similarly, a recent National Antarctic Research Plan for South Africa mentioned the goal of meeting key challenges identified by the Scan.<sup>371</sup> Several horizon scans outside of the Antarctic region referenced the Kennicutt et al. papers as an exemplar model. The Nature Comment by Kennicutt et al. 2014¹ has been cited 16 to 33 times a year since the Scan, suggesting that</td><td>Google scholar was used to search for Scan publications. PDFs of the references which cited the publications were then downloaded. The PDFs were imported into NVIVO Version 11.4.3 and qualitatively coded according to the type of literature (e.g., peer-reviewed article, book chapter, dissertation, national strategic plan, etc.), the discipline, and the nature of the citation (e.g., the new study referenced their work in the context of addressing a Scan priority; the reference citing the Scan as an information source for the importance of the polar regions; non-Antarctic horizon scans citing the Scan as exemplary). The information on the number of citations per year was also obtained via Google Scholar.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>the Scan continues to have visibility and impact in the science community. The Scan organizers and the SCAR community have promoted the Scan beyond the Antarctic community, with more than 30 citations by SCAR-affiliated scientists.</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Antarctic Treaty System (ATS)<sup>372</sup></td><td>Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs)<sup>373</sup><br>SCAR<sup>374</sup> has continually brought forward information about the Scan to the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS, Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings [ATCMs],<sup>373</sup> the Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP)<sup>375</sup> and the Science Committee of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources [SC-CCAMLR])<sup>376</sup>.<br>Scan outcomes were presented at the ATCMs in 2015 and 2016. Several key documents with Scan linkages have formed the basis for discussions at ATCMs since 2014.</td><td>ATCM XXXVII (Bulgaria, 2015).<br>Final report para 334: SCAR presented IP 20 Outcomes of the 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan, which advised Parties on the results from the project aiming to identify the most important scientific questions in and about the Antarctic that should be addressed over the next two decades and beyond. It informed the Parties that more than 70 of the world's leading Antarctic scientists, policy makers and visionaries identified the 80 highest priority questions in six broad areas. SCAR noted further that, to answer these questions, it would be necessary to: provide long-term sustained and stable research funding; ensure access to Antarctica throughout the year; apply emerging technologies; strengthen protection of the region; grow international cooperation; and improve communication among all interested parties.<br><br>ATCM XXXIX (Santiago, 2016).<br>Final report paras. 23 and 201: SCAR highlighted several examples of its activities including participation in the Antarctic Roadmap Challenges project in 2015. This initiative, led by COMNAP, represented the second step of the SCAR Antarctic and</td></tr></table>
**Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan.**

Both initiatives are the topic of the SCAR
Science Lecture at this year's ATCM (BP 3).

(...)

COMNAP presented IP 51 COMNAP Antarctic
Roadmap Challenges (ARC) Project

Outcomes, which provided a summary of the
critical technologies, infrastructure and access
requirements in order to support future

Antarctic research, such as that identified in
the **SCAR Horizon Scan project. The ARC**
project is a community effort that will require
international collaboration to deliver. Full
results of the project are published and can be
downloaded from the COMNAP website.

**ATCM XL (Beijing, 2017).**

WP 1 (United Kingdom): The UK's Antarctic
science priorities, as outlined above, also took
into account the outcomes of the **Scientific
Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)**

**Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science**

Horizon Scan, which had identified 80 priority
science questions in 2014. By presenting the
priority issues and challenges for the UK
Antarctic science program, the UK invites
other Parties who have identified similar
scientific priorities, and with whom the UK is
not already collaborating, to engage with the
UK National Antarctic Program to identify any
opportunities for new cooperation.

Discussions relating to ATCM XL/WP 1
reported in Final report ATCM XL paras. 312-
317.
Final report para. 274: The United States presented IP 13 U.K./U.S. Research Initiative on Thwaites: The Future of Thwaites Glacier and its Contribution to Sea-level Rise, prepared jointly with the United Kingdom. The paper reported on a joint NSF-NERC scientific program established with the objective of substantially improving both decadal and longer-term (century-to-multi-century) projections of ice loss and sea-level rise originating from Thwaites Glacier. The United States noted that considerable uncertainty remained in projections of global sea-level rise, and that reducing this uncertainty was an international priority that had been underlined in the SCAR "Horizon Scan 2020" and by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The United States welcomed further international collaboration with other Parties in relation to this research area.

### ATCM XLII (Prague, 2019)

WP 32 (Australia): Participants also acknowledged the range of other processes relevant to the Parties' discussions on Antarctic science priorities and challenges, including the CEP's work to identify and promote the science needed to better understand and address the environmental challenges facing Antarctica, (which were endorsed by the CEP and reflected in the CEP 5-year work plan), the **SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan, and the related COMNAP Antarctic Roadmap Challenge project.**
The Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP)³⁷⁵

### 2013

(21) SCAR presented IP 4 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Annual Report for 2012/13. In 2012 SCAR approved five new Scientific Research Projects: a) State of the Antarctic Ecosystem; b) Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation; c) Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century; d) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics; and e) Solid Earth Response and Cryosphere Evolution. SCAR also introduced IP 19 **1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan**, on an activity which would assemble the SCAR community and leading Antarctic experts to identify the most important scientific questions to be addressed over the next two decades. Further information was available in BP 20 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Selected Science Highlights for 2012/13 (SCAR).

### 2014

(34) SCAR presented IP 13 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Annual Report 2013/14 and highlighted several examples of its activities. SCAR also provided an **annual update to the Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment Report**. SCAR had held a **Science Horizon Scan in New Zealand in April 2014**, following the crowdsourcing of over 850 unique questions and the nomination of almost 500 scientists by the SCAR community. The selected 70 participants had identified a list of the 80 most important scientific questions that
should be addressed by research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean beyond the next 20 years...

**2015**

(51) SCAR presented IP 19 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Annual Report 2014/15 and referred to BP 4 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Selected Science Highlights for 2014/15. It highlighted several examples of its activities including..., the **completion of the SCAR Science Horizon Scan** (IP 20) and resulting publications in the journals *Antarctic Science* and *Nature*...

(278) SCAR presented **IP 20 Outcomes of the 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan**. The Horizon Scan had focused on the most compelling and important scientific questions, both in and from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, to be addressed over the next two decades and beyond. It identified 80 high-priority scientific questions divided into six areas. These included: 1) defining the global reach of the Antarctic atmosphere and Southern Ocean; 2) understanding how, where and why ice sheets lose mass; 3) revealing Antarctica's history; 4) learning how Antarctic life evolved and survived; 5) observing space and the Universe; and 6) recognizing and mitigating human influences.

(279) The Committee congratulated SCAR for undertaking the Horizon Scan and for
the report on key outcomes. It noted that one of the priorities identified related to the recognition of mitigation of human impacts and **looked forward to drawing on the results of research prioritized in the Horizon Scan for its future work.**

**2016**

(35) SCAR presented IP 20 The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Annual Report 2015/16 ...**SCAR highlighted several examples of its activities including participation in the Antarctic Roadmap Challenges project in 2015.** This initiative, led by COMNAP, represented the second step of the first SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan. **Both initiatives are the topic of the SCAR Science Lecture at this year's ATCM (BP 3 rev. 1)...**

**2017**

(257) Portugal presented IP 24 Future Challenges in Southern Ocean Ecology Research: **another outcome of the 1st SCAR Horizon Scan**, jointly prepared with Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, the Netherlands, SCAR, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The paper reported on an output of the **SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan**. It noted that the work presented reflected contributions from many Antarctic scientists and policy makers. It focused on high-interest research areas related specifically to Southern Ocean life and ecology that, although not all retained as the
<table><tr><td></td><td>top priorities among the addressed scientific domains, were of considerable relevance to the biology and ecology of the Southern Ocean. It highlighted that Southern Ocean ecological research would require long-term commitment by Parties to conduct international and interdisciplinary research, aided by the development of technology (in cooperation with organizations such as COMNAP and SCAR)...</td></tr><tr><td>The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources<sup>377</sup></td><td><strong>2013 SC-CAMLR<sup>376</sup></strong><br>10.2 The SCAR Observer to SC-CAMLR, Prof. M. Hindell, presented the annual report of SCAR activities of interest to CCAMLR (SC-CAMLR-XXXII/BG/08). In particular, he noted: "... 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan to which the Chair of the Scientific Committee had been invited to participate...".<br><br><strong>2014 SC-CAMLR</strong><br>10.6 Prof. Hindell presented the annual report of SCAR activities of interest to CCAMLR (SC-CAMLR-XXXIII/BG/17). In particular, he noted: "... (iii) the first SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan identified impacts of human activities on animals and fish population as a focus for future research...".<br><br><strong>2014 CCAMLR</strong><br>Opening address by the Lieutenant Governor of Tasmania, His Excellency the Honourable Chief Justice Alan Blow Medal of the Order of Australia: "...As I understand it, the SCAR</td></tr></table>
**Science Horizon Scan** was the first time that the international Antarctic community has formulated a collective vision on priority issues that need our increased attention. From a long list of candidate questions the group refined priorities to 80 key questions which were grouped across six broad themes.

Some of those themes are quite obvious and not unexpected – improved understanding of the Antarctic atmosphere and Southern Ocean ecosystem, and relationships to global environmental processes including climate change. Others are probably not as well-known and include complex areas such as ice dynamics, geological history, the evolution of life in the Antarctic, and how it survives, and, **of direct relevance to CCAMLR**, recognizing and mitigating human impact.

The scan noted several other items of particular interest. These included the number of countries actively involved in Antarctic affairs, a gradual shrinking of resources available to support Antarctic activities for many countries and a call for increased international collaboration in the Antarctic across a wide range of areas.”

Agenda item: Climate change

5.91 **The Scientific Committee Chair also noted a paper that was recently published in the journal Nature entitled 'Polar research: six priorities for Antarctic science'** that was highlighted by the Lieutenant Governor in his opening address.
The paper identified the most compelling scientific questions that Antarctic researchers should aspire to answer in two decades and was developed during the SCAR Horizon Scan meeting from 20 to 23 April 2014 in Queenstown, New Zealand, in which the Chair participated. The Scientific Committee Chair highlighted one of the questions adopted by the Horizon Scan: How will climate change affect existing and future Southern Ocean fisheries, especially krill stocks? **The Chair underscored that the answer to this question is of critical importance to all of CCAMLR.** The Commission noted, consistent with SC-CAMLR-XXXIII (paragraph 8.4), that development of a feedback management strategy for the krill fishery offers the opportunity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

## 2015 - WG-EMM

2.213 The Working Group recognized that in the future of CEMP development there will be a need to make better use of existing CEMP data, data from other sources and initiatives outside of CCAMLR such as the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Horizon Scan, Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean (ICED) and SOOS in order to develop a better system-level understanding through improved population and ecosystem models. The Working Group considered that this could be achieved by holding a workshop in the near future to consider these issues and noted that there
<table><tr><td></td><td></td><td>have been many methodological developments and additional data sources since a previous CEMP review workshop in 2003. It may be possible to fund such a workshop through a proposal to the CEMP Special Fund in 2016.<br/><b>2015 - SC-CAMLR</b><br/>10.5 Prof. M. Hindell (SCAR Observer) presented the annual report of SCAR activities of interest to CCAMLR (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV/BG17 Rev 1.). He noted: "(...)(iv) several existing synergies are already present between SCAR and CCAMLR, such SOOS, ACCE, and the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan."</td></tr><tr><td>Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)<sup>374</sup></td><td>SCAR's structural review in 2015 advocates that its disciplinary groups have a role in promoting science linked to Scan questions and that it should shape the agenda for the group's discussions. This review and its recommendations informed SCAR's strategic plan 2017-22 which states that SCAR will use the key questions arising from the Scan "to guide research priorities and research direction over the next six years and beyond.<br/><br/>A word search of 'Horizon', 'Roadmap' and 'ARC' in SCAR biennial Delegates meeting reports from 2014 to 2018 detected 27 instances of usage of these terms.</td><td>Antarctic Science Horizon Scan<sup>378</sup><br/>SCAR Structural Review<sup>379</sup><br/>SCAR Strategic Plan 2017-2022<sup>380</sup><br/>SCAR groups have designed international workshops around Scan questions.<sup>381,382</sup><br/>Two key documents presenting the outcomes of the Scan and ARC have been downloaded from the SCAR website 300 and 416 times respectively, indicating interest and usage (ATCM XXXVIII IP 020, and ATCM LX WP 15).<br/><br/>There have been recent Humanities and Social Sciences developments within the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>Action Groups (AG) established under the umbrella of the SCAR Standing Committee on the Humanities and Social Sciences explicitly refer to Scan questions. The Action Group on Resilience and the Future of Science-based Decision-making for Antarctica (PoLSciNex AG) has "identified some specific topics or areas of interests where examination of the policy-law-science nexus would be fruitful for both social sciences and natural sciences scholarship. Examples are: (a) marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Southern Ocean (Q.61, Q.66); (b) Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and Specially Managed Areas (ASMAs) (Q.68, Q.74); (c) invasive species in the Antarctic (Q.55); (d) biological prospecting in the Antarctic (Q.43, Q.44); (e) environmental liability in the Antarctic (Q.74); (f) environmental impact assessment in the Antarctic (Q.53, Q.74); (g) large-scale scientific establishments and logistical facilities in the Antarctic (Q.75); (h) marine scientific research in the Southern Ocean (Q.12-Q.23); (i) "commercial" activities in the Antarctic, including Antarctic tourism (Q.78); etc. (especially with regard to, but the mismatch between the pace of changes occurring in Antarctica and the slow motion of putting in place international/national strategic plans and actions urges for a more rigorous prioritization (fewer questions and more targeted, to be more effective?), and for structured milestone plans?. Similarly, the AG on Intrinsic Value in Antarctica (AGIVA), which aims "to develop a broad cross-cultural</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td></td><td>understanding of the intrinsic value of Antarctica in order that the intention of the Madrid Protocol to provide protection to this value can be better understood. Intrinsic value is a complex philosophical problem which requires experience and expertise", has links to Q.79. Other research that was stimulated by the Scan involves an assessment of the past, present and future elements of human impacts in the Antarctic to develop robust integrative frameworks that consider humanities and social-sciences knowledge in scientific understandings of human impacts.</td></tr><tr><td>Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP)<sup>383</sup></td><td>The ARC outcomes contributed to a restructure of the COMNAP Expert Groups, refocusing the "Advancing Critical Technologies", "Science Facilitation" and "Marine Platforms" groups to respond to the ARC findings.<br>A word search for "Horizon Scan", "SCAR HS", "ARC" and "Antarctic Roadmap Challenges" of COMNAP Annual General Meeting (AGM) Reports from 2014 to 2018 detected 65 instances of usage of these terms.</td><td>Antarctic Roadmap Challenges Project<sup>384</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Other examples of "Impact, Uptake and Delivery"</td><td>In the days immediately following the Scan retreat, the International Science Media Network, through its New Zealand website, shared "Scanning the Antarctic Horizon" which was subsequently picked up by the print, television and radio media. In the context of formal education, at least one higher learning institute incorporated a Scan focus.</td><td>Some of these media activities and presentations are archived on the SCAR website.<sup>385</sup><br>The Tinker Foundation<sup>386</sup> provided financial support for staging the Scan and ARC and highlighted the outcomes via its on-line media.</td></tr></table>
SCAR has presented research results to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conferences on several occasions, aligned with key themes of the Scan (e.g. in 2019 SCAR addressed the theme of the role of the Southern Ocean in the Global Climate System).
<table><caption>Table S16. Antarctica is unique, managed via an international treaty setting the region aside as a scientific preserve and establishes freedom of scientific investigation. There are territorial claims, open ocean, a vast array of endemic and migratory species, complex food webs and no indigenous peoples. This table provides a brief description of the stakeholders, organizations (governmental and non-governmental), end-users and constituencies.</caption><thead><tr><td>Stakeholder/Organization/ Activity</td><td>Mission/Goals</td><td>Role in Antarctica/ Membership</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Antarctic Treaty System (ATS)<sup>372</sup> (inter-governmental)</td><td>The Antarctic Treaty was signed in Washington, DC, USA (1959). The total number of Parties to the Treaty is fifty-four (2019).</td><td>The overarching international governance structure. Antarctic Treaty Parties include 29 consultative members and 25 countries that have acceded to the Treaty (2019).<sup>387</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs)<sup>373</sup> (inter-governmental)</td><td>The formal meeting of Parties under the Antarctic Treaty.</td><td>Every year Consultative Parties meet "for the purpose of exchanging information, consulting together on matters of common interest pertaining to Antarctica, and formulating and considering and recommending to their Governments measures in furtherance of the principles and objectives of the Treaty" (Art. IX).</td></tr><tr><td>Antarctic Treaty Parties</td><td>There were 12 original signatories to the Treaty and an additional 42 (2019) countries that have acceded to the Treaty since 1959. Those Parties that are entitled to participate in the Consultative Meetings (Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties) are those that have demonstrated their interest in Antarctica by "conducting substantial research activity there". Currently (2019) there are 29 Consultative Parties. The other 25 Non-Consultative Parties are invited to attend the Consultative Meetings but</td><td>Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties are those countries that are active in Antarctica, both in the funding and conduct of Antarctic science as well as in implementing the regulations and principles of the Antarctic Treaty into domestic law and legislation.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>do not participate in decision-making.<sup>387</sup></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>The Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP)<sup>375</sup> (inter-governmental)</td><td>Established through the Protocol on Protection of the Environment to the Antarctic Treaty, and as such part of the ATS. The Committee's functions are "to provide advice and formulate recommendations to the Parties in connection with the implementation of this Protocol, including the operation of its Annexes, for consideration at Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings."</td><td>The Committee consists of representatives of the 40 (2019) Parties to the Environment Protocol and normally meets once a year in conjunction with the ATCM. CEP meetings are also attended by various observers.</td></tr><tr><td>The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources<sup>377</sup> (inter-governmental),</td><td>A part of the ATS. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources is an international agreement (1980). It is a multilateral response to concerns that unregulated increases in krill catches in the Southern Ocean could be detrimental for Antarctic marine ecosystems particularly for seabirds, seals, whales and fish that depend on krill for food. There are 25 Members and 11 Acceding States (2019) and It convenes a Scientific Committee.<sup>376,388</sup></td><td>The CAMLR Convention applies to all Antarctic populations of all living resources found south of the Antarctic Convergence (the Convention Area). Apart from whales and seals, which are the subject of other conventions - namely, the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling and the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals.<sup>389,390</sup></td></tr><tr><td>Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)<sup>374</sup> (non-governmental)</td><td>The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) is an inter-disciplinary committee of the International Science Council (ISC, 1958). SCAR is charged with</td><td>SCAR has 43 national and 9 International Science Council Unions members.<sup>391</sup> SCAR provides objective and independent scientific advice to the ATS, CEP, CCAMLR, and ATCMs; and other organizations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>initiating, developing and coordinating high quality international scientific research in the Antarctic region (including the Southern Ocean), and on the role of the Antarctic region in the Earth system. SCAR is recognized as observer to ATCMs and the CEP through the provisions of the Antarctic Treaty and Protocol on Environmental Protection.</td><td>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on issues of science and conservation affecting the management of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and on the role of the Antarctic region in the Earth system.</td></tr><tr><td>Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP)<sup>383</sup> (inter-governmental)</td><td>COMNAP is the international association (1988) which brings together its Members, who are the National Antarctic Programs. National Antarctic Programs are those organizations that have responsibility for delivering and supporting scientific research in the Antarctic Treaty Area. COMNAP has 30 National Antarctic Program Members (2019).<sup>392</sup> COMNAP is an observer to ATCMs and the CEP.</td><td>COMNAP's purpose is to "develop and promote best practice in managing the support of scientific research in Antarctica"<br/>Each Member program is represented by the Manager of that National Antarctic Program and/or the Deputy Manager of that program. NAPs often perform the dual role of managing all aspects of scientific support and funding national scientific projects and programs.</td></tr><tr><td>National Antarctic Programs (national-governmental)</td><td>Each Party the Antarctic Treaty normally establishes a National Antarctic Program, which has national responsibility for managing the support of scientific research on behalf of its government. Establishing National Antarctic Programs is not mandatory but all those countries which have permanent research stations in Antarctica or carry out</td><td>National Antarctic Programs collectively have the greatest first-hand experience of living and working in the Antarctic and provide the support for the science conducted in Antarctica and are responsible for carrying through many of the decisions and agreements from the ATCMs.</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td>scientific research otherwise, generally do so.</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>A range of non-governmental organizations.</td><td>Examples (not exhaustive):<ul><li>Antarctic Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC)<sup>393</sup></li><li>International Association of Antarctic Tour Operators (IAATO)<sup>394</sup></li></ul></td><td>Advocates for various issues and/or stakeholders.<br>Examples:<br>ASOC works on a wide range of Antarctic environmental issues.<br>IAATO - A member organization (1991) "to advocate and promote the practice of safe and environmentally responsible private-sector travel to the Antarctic".</td></tr><tr><td>Media organizations, social media and the Public</td><td>In some instances; communicators and consumers of research outcomes, audiences, and commentators (opinion pieces, blogs, etc.).</td><td>The public includes the constituencies of the organizations that fund science in Antarctica.</td></tr></table>
Supplementary References

1. Kennicutt, M.C., Chown, S.L., Cassano, J.J., Liggett, D., Massom, R., Peck, L.S., Rintoul, S.R., Storey, J.W.V., Vaughan, D.G., Wilson, T.J., et al. (2014). Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science. Nature 512, 23-25.

2. Kennicutt, M.C., Chown, S.L., Cassano, J.J., Liggett, D., Peck, L.S., Massom, R., Rintoul, S.R., Storey, J., Vaughan, D.G., Wilson, T.J., et al. (2015). A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond. Antarctic Science 27, 3-18.

3. Yuan, X., Kaplan, M.R. and Cane, M.A. (2018). The Interconnected Global Climate System - A Review of Tropical - Polar Teleconnections. Journal of Climate 31, 5765-5792.

4. Parish, T. R., and Bromwich, D.H. (1998). A case study of Antarctic katabatic wind interaction with large-scale forcing. Monthly Weather Review 126, 199-209.

5. Papritz, L., Pfahl, S., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H. (2015). A climatology of cold air outbreaks and their impact on air-sea heat fluxes in the high-latitude South Pacific. Journal of Climate 28, 342-364.

6. Gillett, Z.E., Arblaster, J.M., Dittus, A.J., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D.E., Morgenstern, O., Plummer, D.A., Revell, L.E., Rozanov, E., et al. (2019). Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models. Journal of Climate 32, 3131–3151.

7. Abram, N.J., Mulvaney, R., Vimeux, F., Phipps, S.J., Turner, J. and England, M.H. (2014) Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nature Climate Change, 4, 564-569.

8. Stenni, B., Curran, M.A.J., Abram, N.J., Orsi, A., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D., Ommen, T. van, et al. (2017). Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years. Climate of the Past 13, 1609-1634.

9. Dutton, A., Carlson, A.E., Long, A.J., Milne, G.A., Clark, P.U., DeConto, R., Horton, B.P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M.E. (2015). Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Science 349, aaa4019.

10. Gasson, E., DeConto R.M., and Pollard, D. (2016). Modeling the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet and its significance to Pliocene sea level. Geology, 44, 827-830.

11. Fan, T., Deser, C. and Schneider, D.P. (2014). Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950. Geophysical Research Letters 41, 2419-2426.

12. Smith, K.L., and Polvani, L.M. (2017). Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics 48, 2653-2670.

13. Zhang, L., Delworth, T.L., Cooke, W., and Yang, X. (2019). Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends. Nature Climate Change 9, 59-65.

14. Armour, K.C., Marshall, J., Scott, J.R., Donohoe, A., and Newsom, E.R. (2016). Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport. Nature Geoscience 9, 549.

15. Frölicher, T.L., Sarmiento, J.L., Paynter, D.J., Dunne, J.P., Krasting, J.P., and Winton, M. (2015). Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models. Journal of Climate Science 28, 2862-886.
16. Morrison, A.K., Griffies, S.M., Winton, M., Anderson, W.G., Sarmiento, J.L., Morrison, A.K., Griffies, S.M., Winton, M., Anderson, W.G., and Sarmiento, J.L. (2016). Mechanisms of Southern Ocean Heat Uptake and Transport in a Global Eddying Climate Model. Journal of Climate 29, 2059-2075.

17. Hyder, P., Edwards, J.M., Allan, R.P., Hewitt, H.T., Bracegirdle, T.J., Gregory, J.M., Wood, R.A., Meijers, A.J.S., Mulcahy, J., Field, P., et al. (2018). Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. Nature Communications 9, 3625.

18. Hines, K. M., Bromwich, D.H., Wang, S.-H., Silber, I., Verlinde, J., and Lubin, D. (2019). Microphysics of summer clouds in central west Antarctica simulated by Polar WRF and AMPS. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, acp-2018-1251, revised.

19. Kay, J.E., Wall, C., Yettella, V., Medeiros, B., Hannay, C., Caldwell, P., and Bitz, C. (2015). Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Journal of Climate, 29, 4617-4636.

20. Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) Field Campaign Report, https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1524775

21. Nowicki, S.M.J., Payne, T., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A. (2016). Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6. Geosciences Model Development 9, 4521-4545.

22. Asay-Davis, X.S., Cornford, S.L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B.K., Gladstone, R.M., Gudmundsson, G.H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D.M., Holland, D., Holland, P.R., et al. (2016). Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1). Geoscientific Model Development 9, 2471-2497.

23. DeConto, R.M., and Pollard, D. (2016). Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591-597.

24. Colleoni, F., Santis, L.D., Montoli, E., Olivo, E., Sorlien, C.C., Bart, P.J., Gasson, E.G.W., Bergamasco, A., Sauli, C., Wardell, N., et al. (2018). Past continental shelf evolution increased Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to climatic conditions. Scientific Reports 8, 11323.

25. Golledge, N.R., Keller, E.D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K.A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L.D., and Edwards, T.L. (2019). Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt. Nature 566, 65-72.

26. Edwards, T.L., Brandon, M.A., Durand, G., Edwards, N.R., Golledge, N.R., Holden, P.B., Nias, I.J., Payne, A.J., Ritz, C., and Wernecke, A. (2019). Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature 566, 58-64.

27. Levy, R., Harwood, D., Florindo, F., Sangiorgi, F., Tripati, R., Eynatten, H. von, Gasson, E., Kuhn, G., Tripati, A., DeConto, R., et al. (2016). Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science of the United States 113, 3453-3458.

28. International Ocean Discovery Program, https://www.iodp.org/

29. International Partnership in Ice Core Sciences (IPICS), SCAR, https://www.scar.org/science/ipics/ipics/

30. Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice, https://www.beyondepica.eu/

31. Antpas - Antarctic Permafrost, Periglacial Environments and Soils, https://www.antpas.org/

32. Solomon, S., Ivy, D.J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M.J., Neely, R.R., and Schmidt, A. (2016). Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Science 353, 269-274.
33. Bandoro, J., Solomon, S., Donohoe A., Thompson, D.W.J., and Santer, B.D. (2014). Influences of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on Southern Hemispheric Summer Climate Change. Journal of Climate, 27, 6245-6264.

34. Grytsai, A., Klekociuk, A., Milinevsky, G., Evtushevsky, O., and Stone, K. (2017). Evolution of the eastward shift in the quasi-stationary minimum of the Antarctic total ozone column. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 1741-1758.

35. The 2018 Antarctic Ozone Hole Season, https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2018-antarctic-ozone-hole-season

36. Ball, W.T., Alsing, J., Mortlock, D.J., Staehelin, J., Haigh, J.D., Peter, T., Tummon, F., Stübi, R., Stenke, A., Anderson, J., et al. (2018). Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18, 1379-1394.

37. Montzka, S.A., Dutton, G.S., Yu, P., Ray, E., Portmann, R.W., Daniel, J.S., Kuijpers, L., Hall, B.D., Mondeel, D., Siso, C., et al. (2018). An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11. Nature 557, 413-417.

38. Wang, G., Hendon, H.H., Arblaster, J.M., Lim, E.-P., Abhik, S., and van Rensch, P. (2019). Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016. Nature Communications 10, 13.

39. Moreau S, Vidussi F, Ferreyra G, Mostajir B. (2016). Ecological impacts of ultraviolet-B radiation in marine ecosystems. In Stressors in the Marine Environment, ed. M Solan, NM Whitely, pp. 261-268. (Oxford: Oxford University Press).

40. Bornman, J.F., Barnes, P.W., Robson, T.M., Robinson, S.A., Jansen, M.A.K., Ballaré, C.L., and Flint, S.D. (2019). Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences 18, 681-716.

41. Gutt, J., Bertler, N., Bracegirdle TJ, Buschmann A, Comiso J., et al. (2015) The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses—an integrated circumpolar assessment. Global Change Biology 21, 1434-53.

42. Bao, T., Zhu, R., Wang, P., Ye, W., Dawei, M., and Xu, H. (2018). Potential effects of ultraviolet radiation reduction on tundra nitrous oxide and methane fluxes in maritime Antarctica. Scientific Reports 8, 3716.

43. Robinson, S.A., and Erickson, D.J. 3rd. (2015). Not just about sunburn—the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems. Global Change Biology 21, 515-27.

44. Robinson, S.A., King, D.H., Bramley-Alves, J., Waterman, M.J., Ashcroft, M.B., et al. (2018). Rapid change in East Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in response to regional drying. Nature Climate Change 8, 79-84.

45. Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Griffies, S.M., Hurlin, W.J., Rodgers, K.B., Sergienko, O.V., Stouffer, R.J., and Russell, J.L. (2018). Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater. Nature 564, 53-58.

46. Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Haumann, F.A., Rödenbeck, C., Bakker, D.C.E., Heuven, S. van, Hoppema, M., Metzl, N., Sweeney, C., Takahashi, T., et al. (2015). The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. Science 349, 1221-1224.

47. Roemmich, D., Church, J., Gilson, J., Monselesan, D., Sutton, P., and Wijffels, S. (2015). Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nature Climate Change 5, 240-245.
48. Shi, J.-R., Xie, S.-P., Talley, L.D., Shi, J.-R., Xie, S.-P., and Talley, L.D. (2018). Evolving Relative Importance of the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in Anthropogenic Ocean Heat Uptake. Journal of Climate, 31, 7459-7479.

49. Menezes, V.V., Macdonald A.M., and Schatzman C. (2017). Accelerated freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water over the last decade in the Southern Indian Ocean. Science Advances 3, e160426.

50. Purkey, S.G., Johnson, G.C., Talley, L.D., Sloyan, B.M., Wijffels, S.E., Smethie, W., Mecking, S., and Katsumata, K. (2019). Unabated Bottom Water Warming and Freshening in the South Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 124, 1778-1794.

51. Snow, K., Rintoul, S.R., Sloyan, B., and Hogg, A. (2018). Decrease in density and volume of Adélie Land Bottom Water induced by iceberg calving. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2380-2387.

52. DeVries, T., Holzer, M., and Primeau, F. (2017). Recent increase in oceanic carbon uptake driven by weaker upper-ocean overturning. Nature 542, 215-218.

53. Rintoul, S. R. (2018). The global influence of localized dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Nature, 558, 209-218.

54. Thompson, A. F., and Naveira Garabato, A. C. (2014). Equilibration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current by standing meanders. Journal of Physical Oceanography 44, 1811-1828.

55. Tamsitt, V., Drake, H.F., Morrison, A.K., Talley, L.D., Dufour, C.O., Gray, A.R., Griffies, S.M., Mazloff, M.R., Sarmiento, J.L., Wang, J., et al. (2017). Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. Nature Communications 8, 172; corrigendum 9, 209 (2018).

56. Abernathey, R.P., Cerovecki, I., Holland P.R., Newsom E., Mazloff, M. and Talley, L.D. (2016). Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Geoscience 9, 596-601.

57. Haumann, F.A., Gruber, N., Münnich, M., Frenger, I., and Kern, S. (2016). Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends. Nature 537, 89-92.

58. Pellichero V., Sallée, J.-B., Chapman C.C., and Downes, S. M. (2018) The Southern Ocean meridional overturning in the sea-ice sector is driven by freshwater fluxes. Nature Communications 9, 1789.

59. Wilson, E.A., Riser, S.C., Campbell, E.C., Wong, A.P.S., Wilson, E.A., Riser, S.C., Campbell, E.C., and Wong, A.P.S. (2019). Winter Upper-Ocean Stability and Ice-Ocean Feedbacks in the Sea Ice-Covered Southern Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography 49, 1099-1117.

60. Goosse, H., Kay, J.E., Armour, K.C., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Chepfer, H., Docquier, D., Jonko, A., Kushner, P.J., Lecomte, O., Massonnet, F., et al. (2018). Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions. Nature Communications 9, 1919.

61. Meehl, G.A., Arblaster, J.M., Chung, C.T.Y., Holland, M.M., DuVivier, A., Thompson, L., et al. (2019). Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016. Nature Communications 10, 14.

62. Merino, N., Le Sommer, J., Durand, G., Jourdain, N. C., Madec, G., Mathiot, P. and Tournadre, J. (2016). Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean: climatology and impact on sea ice. Ocean Modelling, 104, 99-110.

63. Kohyama, T., and Hartmann, D.L. (2016). Antarctic Sea Ice Response to Weather and Climate Modes of Variability. Journal of Climate 29.721-741.
64. Zhang, L., Delworth, T.L., Cooke, W., and Yang, X. (2019). Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends. Nature Climate Change 9, 59.

65. Parkinson, C.L. (2019). A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116, 14414-14423.

66. Climate Change Initiative, European Space Agency, http://cci.esa.int/

67. Kohout, A.L., Williams, M.J.M., Dean, S.M., and Meylan, M.H. (2014). Storm-induced sea-ice breakup and the implications for ice extent. Nature 509, 604-607.

68. Massom, R.A., Scambos, T.A., Bennetts, L.G., Reid, P., Squire, V.A., and Stammerjohn, S.E. (2018). Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell. Nature 558, 383-389.

69. Montiel, F., and Squire, V.A. (2017). Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 473(2206), 20170258.

70. Squire, V.A. (2018). A fresh look at how ocean waves and sea ice interact. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376(2129), 20170342.

71. Stopa, J.E., Sutherland, P., and Ardhuin, F. (2018). Strong and highly variable push of ocean waves on Southern Ocean sea ice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115, 5861-5865.

72. Abernathey, R.P., Cerovecki, I., Holland P.R., Newsom E., Mazloff, M. and Talley, L.D. (2016). Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Geoscience 9, 596-601.

73. Smith, D.M., Dunstone, N.J., Scaife, A.A., Fiedler, E.K., Copsey, D., and Hardiman, S.C. (2017). Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: The Importance of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling and the Background State. Journal of Climate 30, 4547-4964.

74. England, M., Polvani, L., and Sun, L. (2018). Contrasting the Antarctic and Arctic Atmospheric Responses to Projected Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate 31, 6353-6370.

75. Campbell, E.C., Wilson, E.A., Moore, G.W.K., Riser, S.C., Brayton, C.E., Mazloff, M.R. and Talley, L.D. (2019). Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies. Nature 570, 319-325.

76. Francis, D., Eayrs, C., Cuesta, J., and Holland, D. (2019). Polar Cyclones at the Origin of the Reoccurrence of the Maud Rise Polynya in Austral Winter 2017. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124, 5251-5267.

77. Schlosser, E., Haumann, F.A., and Raphael, M.N. (2018). Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay. The Cryosphere 12, 1103-1119.

78. Stuecker, M.F., Bitz, C.M., and Armour, K.C. (2017). Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 9008-9019.

79. Turner, J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G.J., Hosking, J.S., Pope, J.O., Bracegirdle, T.J., and Deb, P. (2017). Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 6868-6875.

80. Nicolas, J.P., Vogelmann, A.M., Scott, R.C., Wilson, A.B., Cadeddu, M.P., Bromwich, D.H., Verlinde, J., Lubin, D., Russell, L.M., Jenkinson, C., et al. (2017). January 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño. Nature Communications 8, 15799.
81. Medley, B., McConnell, J.R., Neumann, T.A., Reijmer, C.H., Chellman, N., Sigl, M., and Kipfstuhl, S. (2018). Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud Land Increasing Faster Than Climate Model Projections. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 1472-1480.

82. Siegfried, M.R., Medley, B., Larson, K.M., Fricker, H.A., and Tulaczyk, S. (2017). Snow accumulation variability on a West Antarctic ice stream observed with GPS reflectometry, 2007–2017. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 7808-7816.

83. Brook, E.J., and Buizert, C. (2018). Antarctic and global climate history viewed from ice cores. Nature 558, 200.

84. Chalk, T.B., Hain, M.P., Foster, G.L., Rohling, E.J., Sexton, P.F., Badger, M.P.S., Cherry, S.G., Hasenfratz, A.P., Haug, G.H., Jaccard, S.L., et al. (2017). Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 114, 13114.

85. Ferrari, R., Jansen, M.F., Adkins, J.F., Burke, A., Stewart, A.L., and Thompson, A.F. (2014). Antarctic sea ice control on ocean circulation in present and glacial climates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, 8753-8758.

86. Hasenfratz, A.P., Jaccard, S.L., Martínez-García, A., Sigman, D.M., Hodell, D.A., Vance, D., Bernasconi, S.M., Kleiven, H. F., Haumann, F.A., and Haug, G.H. (2019). The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle. Science 363, 1080-1084.

87. Pollard, D., Chang, W., Haran, M., Applegate, P., and DeConto, R. (2016). Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques. Geosciences Model Development, 9, 1697-1723.

88. Chen, H., Morrison, A.K., Dufour, C.O., and Sarmiento, J.L. (2019). Deciphering Patterns and Drivers of Heat and Carbon Storage in the Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 3359-3367.

89. Gruber, N., Landschützer, P., and Lovenduski, N.S. (2019). The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink. Annual Review of Marine Science 11, 159-186

90. Gray, A.R., Johnson, K.S., Bushinsky, S.M., Riser, S.C., Russell, J.L., Talley, L.D., Wanninkhof, R., Williams, N.L., and Sarmiento, J.L. (2018). Autonomous Biogeochemical Floats Detect Significant Carbon Dioxide Outgassing in the High-Latitude Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 9049-9057.

91. Boyd, P.W. (2019). Physiology and iron modulate diverse responses of diatoms to a warming Southern Ocean. Nature Climate Change 9, 148-152.

92. Hauck, J., Volker, C., Wolf-Gladrow, D.A., Laufkotter, C., Vogt, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E.T., Doney, S.C., Dunne, J., et al. (2015). On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29, 1451-1470.

93. Xu, K., Fu, F.X., and Hutchins, D.A. (2014). Comparative responses of two dominant Antarctic phytoplankton taxa to interactions between ocean acidification, warming, irradiance, and iron availability. Limnology and Oceanography 59, 1919-1931.

94. Ericson, J.A., Hellessey, N., Kawaguchi, S., Nicol, S., Nichols, P.D., Hoem, N., and Virtue, P. (2018). Adult Antarctic krill proves resilient in a simulated high CO₂ ocean. Communications Biology 1, 190.

95. Gardner, J., Manno, C., Bakker, D.C.E., Peck, V.L., and Tarling, G.A. (2017). Southern Ocean pteropods at risk from ocean warming and acidification. Marine Biology 165, 8.
96. Peck, V.L., Oakes, R.L., Harper, E.M., Manno, C., and Tarling, G.A. (2018). Pteropods counter mechanical damage and dissolution through extensive shell repair. *Nature Communications* 9, 264.

97. Peck, L. (2018). Antarctic marine biodiversity: adaptations, environments and responses to change. In *Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review*, ed. S.J. Hawkins, A.J. Evans, A.C. Dale, L.B. Firth, and I.P. Smith, pp. 105–236 (Taylor and Francis).

98. Banwell, A.F., Willis, I.C., Macdonald, G.J., Goodsell, B., and MacAyeal, D.R. (2019). Direct measurements of ice-shelf flexure caused by surface meltwater ponding and drainage. *Nature Comms* 10, 730.

99. Henley, S.F., Schofield, O.M., Hendry, K.R., Schloss, I.R., Steinberg, D.K., Moffat, C., Peck, L.S., Costa, D.P., Bakker, D.C.E., Hughes, C., et al. (2019). Variability and change in the west Antarctic Peninsula marine system: Research priorities and opportunities. *Progress in Oceanography* 173, 208–237.

100. Haid, V., Iovino, D., and Masina, S. (2017). Impacts of freshwater changes on Antarctic sea ice in an eddy-permitting sea-ice-ocean model. *The Cryosphere* 11, 1387-1402.

101. NASA Operation IceBridge, https://icebridge.gsfc.nasa.gov

102. Morlighem, M., Williams, C.N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J.E., Bamber, J.L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J.A., Dorschel, B. et al. 2017. BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 44,11-51.

103. Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Favier, L., Zwinger, T., and Le Meur, E. (2011). Impact of bedrock description on modeling ice sheet dynamics. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 38.

104. Greenbaum, J.S., Blankenship, D.D., Young, D.A., Richter, T.G., Roberts, J.L., Aitken, A.R.A., Legresy, B., Schroeder, D.M., Warner, R.C., Ommen, T.D. van, et al. (2015). Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica. *Nature Geoscience* 8, 294.

105. Falcini, F.A.M., Rippin, D.M., Krabbendam, M., and Selby, K.A. (2018). Quantifying bed roughness beneath contemporary and palaeo-ice streams. *Journal of Glaciology* 64, 822-834.

106. Jeofry, H., Ross, N., Brocq, A.L., Graham, A.G.C., Li, J., Gogineni, P., Morlighem, M., Jordan, T., and Siegert, M.J. (2018). Hard rock landforms generate 130 km ice shelf channels through water focusing in basal corrugations. *Nature Communications* 9, 4576.

107. Schroeder, D. M., Blankenship, D. D., Young, D. A., Witus, A. E., and Anderson, J. B. (2014). Airborne radar sounding evidence for deformable sediments and outcropping bedrock beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 41(20), 7200-7208.

108. Arthern, R. J., Hindmarsh, R. C., and Williams, C. R. (2015). Flow speed within the Antarctic ice sheet and its controls inferred from satellite observations. *Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface*, 120(7), 1171-1188.

109. Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Mosbeux, C., Mouginot, J., Rémy, F., and Ritz, C. (2016). Assimilation of surface velocities acquired between 1996 and 2010 to constrain the form of the basal friction law under Pine Island Glacier. *Geophysical Research Letters*, 43(19), 10-311.

110. Pattyn, F., Schoof, C., Perichon, L., Hindmarsh, R.C.A., Bueler, E., Fleurian, B. de, Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gladstone, R., Goldberg, D., et al. (2012). Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP. The Cryosphere 6, 573–588.

111. ice2sea MISMIP3D: Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for planview models (3D), http://homepages.ulb.ac.be/~fpattyn/mismip3d/
112. Ice Sheet System Model, NASA, https://issm.jpl.nasa.gov/

113. Elmer/Ice, http://elmerice.elmerfem.org/

114. BISICLES, https://commons.lbl.gov/display/bisicles?atl_token=bb21509b202635ed8078fe4f24c80cfbaef3247f

115. Martin, D.F., Cornford, S.L., and Payne, A.J. (2019). Millennial-Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 1467-1475.

116. Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Adhikari, S., Ivins, E., Caron, L., Morlighem, M., and Schlegel, N. (2019). Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks. Science 364, eaav7908.

117. Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Mosbeux, C., Mouginot, J., Rémy, F., and Ritz, C. (2016). Assimilation of surface velocities acquired between 1996 and 2010 to constrain the form of the basal friction law under Pine Island Glacier. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 10,311-10,321.

118. Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP), http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/misomip

119. ISMIP6 - Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6, WCRP, https://www.wcrp-climate.org/modelling-wgcm-mip-catalogue/cmip6-endorsed-mips-article/1049-modelling-cmip6-ismip

120. Fricker, H.A., Siegfried, MR., Carter, S. P., and Scambos, T.A. (2016). A decade of progress in observing and modelling Antarctic subglacial water systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374(2059), 20140294.

121. Siegert, M.J., Ross, N., and Le Brocq, A.M. (2016). Recent advances in understanding Antarctic subglacial lakes and hydrology. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374(2059), 20140306.

122. Siegfried, M.R., Fricker, H.A., Carter, S.P., and Tulaczyk, S. (2016). Episodic ice velocity fluctuations triggered by a subglacial flood in West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), 2640-2648.

123. Young, D.A., Schroeder, D.M., Blankenship, D.D., Kempf, S.D., and Quartini, E. (2016). The distribution of basal water between Antarctic subglacial lakes from radar sounding. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374(2059), 20140297.

124. Key, K., and Siegfried, M.R. (2017). The feasibility of imaging subglacial hydrology beneath ice streams with ground-based electromagnetics. Journal of Glaciology 63(241): 755-771.

125. Siegert, M.J., Kulessa, B., Bougamont, M., Christoffersen, P., Key, K., Andersen, K.R., Booth, A.D., and Smith, A.M. (2018). Antarctic subglacial groundwater: a concept paper on its measurement and potential influence on ice flow. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 461, 197-213.

126. Martos, Y. M., Catalán, M., Jordan, T. A., Golynsky, A., Golynsky, D., Eagles, G., and Vaughan, D. G. (2017). Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(22), 11-417.

127. Report on Taking the Temperature of the Antarctic Continent (TACtical) Workshop 21-23 March 2018, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; https://www.scar.org/scar-news/sercews/report-tact-2018/
128. Liefferinge, B.V., Pattyn, F., Cavitte, M. G., Karlsson, N. B., Young, D. A., Sutter, J., and Eisen, O. (2018). Promising Oldest Ice sites in East Antarctica based on thermodynamical modelling. The Cryosphere, 12, 2773-2787.

129. Whitehouse, P.L., Gomez, N., King, M.A., and Wiens, D.A. (2019). Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature Communications 10, 503.

130. Golledge, N.R., Kowalewski, D.E., Naish, T.R., Levy, R.H., Fogwill, C.J., and Gasson, E.G. (2015). The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise. Nature, 526(7573), 421.

131. Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N.R., et al. (2018). The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change 8, 1053-1061.

132. Seroussi, H., Nakayama, Y., Larour, E., Menemenlis, D., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., and Khazendar, A. (2017). Continued retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, controlled by bed topography and ocean circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 6191-6199.

133. Arthern, R.J., and Williams, C.R. (2017). The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 2352-2359.

134. Trusel, L.D., Frey, K.E., Das, S.B., Karnauskas, K.B., Munneke, P.K., Van Meijgaard, E., and Van Den Broeke, M.R. (2015). Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios. Nature Geoscience 8, 927.

135. Bell, R.E., Chu, W., Kingslake, J., Das, I., Tedesco, M., Tinto, K.J., Zappa, C.J., Frezzotti, M., Boghosian, A., and Lee, W.S. (2017). Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river. Nature 544, 344-348.

136. Nitsche, F.O., Porter, D., Williams, G., Cougnon, E.A., Fraser, A.D., Correia, R., and Guerrero, R. (2017). Bathymetric control of warm ocean water access along the East Antarctic Margin. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 8936-8944.

137. Dutrieux, P., Rydt, J.D., Jenkins, A., Holland, P.R., Ha, H.K., Lee, S.H., Steig, E.J., Ding, Q., Abrahamsen, E.P., and Schröder, M. (2014). Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability. Science 343, 174-178.

138. Paolo, F.S., Padman, L., Fricker, H.A., Adusumilli, S., Howard, S., and Siegfried, M.R. (2018). Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Nature Geoscience 11, 121.

139. Jenkins, A., Shoosmith, D., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Kim, T.W., Lee, S.H., Ha, H.K., and Stammerjohn, S. (2018). West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability. Nature Geoscience 11, 733-738.

140. Garabato, A.C.N., Frajka-Williams, E.E., Spingys, C.P., Legg, S., Polzin, K.L., Forryan, A., Abrahamsen, E.P., Buckingham, C.E., Griffies, S.M., McPhail, S.D., et al. (2019). Rapid mixing and exchange of deep-ocean waters in an abyssal boundary current. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116, 13233-13238.

141. International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/international-thwaites-glacier-collaboration/

142. Rintoul, S.R., Silvano, A., Pena-Molino, B., Wijk, E. van, Rosenberg, M., Greenbaum, J.S., and Blankenship, D.D. (2016). Ocean heat drives rapid basal melt of the Totten Ice Shelf. Science Advances 2, e1601610.

143. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Broeke, M. van den, Wessem, M.J. van, and Morlighem, M. (2019). Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science of the United States 116, 1095-1103.
144. Golledge, N.R., Menviel, L., Carter, L., Fogwill, C.J., England, M.H., Cortese, G., and Levy, R.H. (2014). Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Communications, 5, 5107.

145. Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE), http://imbie.org/about-the-project/

146. Smith, A.M., Woodward, J., Ross, N., Bentley, M.J., Hodgson, D.A., Siegert, M.J. and King, E.C. (2018). Evidence for the long-term sedimentary environment in an Antarctic subglacial lake. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 504: 139-151.

147. Spector, P., Stone, J., Pollard, D., Hillebrand, T., Lewis, C., and Gombiner, J. (2018). Antarctic sites for subglacial drilling to test for past ice-sheet collapse, The Cryosphere 12: 2741-2757.

148. Fastdrill, https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~tulaczyk/fastdrill.htm

149. Rapid Access Ice Drill, http://www.rapidaccessicedrill.org/

150. Golynsky, A.V., Ferraccioli, F., Hong, J.K., Golynsky, D.A., von Frese, R.R.B., Young, D.A., Blankenship, D.D., Holt, J.W., Ivanov, S.V., Kiselev, A.V., et al. (2018). ADMAP2 Magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic links to grid (grd) files. PANGAEA, In supplement to: Golynsky, A.V. et al. (2018). New magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 6437-6449.

151. An, M., Wiens, D.A. Zhao, Y., Feng, M., Nyblade, A., Kanao, M. Li, Y. Maggi, A. and Lévêque, J.J. (2015). Temperature, lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities, Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth 120, 8720-8742.

152. Burton-Johnson, A., Halpin, J.A., Whittaker, J.M., Graham, F.S., and Watson, S.J. (2017). A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 5436-5446.

153. Goodge, J.W. (2018). Crustal heat production and estimate of terrestrial heat flow in central East Antarctica, with implications for thermal input to the East Antarctic ice sheet. The Cryosphere 12, 491-504.

154. An informative blog related to Q.36: https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr/2018/03/23/image-of-the-week-geothermal-heat-flux-in-antarctica-do-we-really-know-anything/

155. POLENET, The Polar Observing Network, http://polenet.org/

156. ROSETTA-Ice at ESR, https://rosetta.esr.org/

157. Nield, G.A., Whitehouse, P.L., Van der Wal, W., Blank, B., O'Donnell, J.P., and Stuart, G.W. (2018). The impact of lateral variations in lithospheric thickness on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica. Geophysical Journal International 214, 811-824.

158. Vries, M. van W. de, Bingham, R.G., and Hein, A.S. (2018). A new volcanic province: an inventory of subglacial volcanoes in West Antarctica. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 461, 231-248.

159. Lough, A.C., Wiens, D.A., Barcheck, C.G., Anandakrishnan, S., Aster, R.C., Blankenship, D.D., Huerta, A.D., Nyblade, A., Young, D.A., and Wilson, T.J. (2013). Seismic detection of an active subglacial magmatic complex in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica. Nature Geoscience 6, 1031.

160. Antarctic Volcanism (Antvolc), SCAR, https://www.scar.org/science/antvolc/antvolc/

161. An informative blog related to Q.38: http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glacial-geology/antarctic-ice-sheet/subglacial-volcanoes/

162. Frisia, S., Weyrich, L.S., Hellstrom, J., Borsato, A., Golledge, N.R., Anesio, A.M., Bajo, P., Drysdale, R.N., Augustinus, P.C., Rivard, C. and Cooper, A. (2017). The influence of
Antarctic subglacial volcanism on the global iron cycle during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Communications 8, 15425.

163. Paxman, G.J.G., Jamieson, S.S.R., Ferraccioli, F., Bentley, M.J., Ross, N., Watts, A.B., Leitchenkov, G., Armadillo, E., and Young, D.A. (2019). The Role of Lithospheric Flexure in the Landscape Evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and Transantarctic Mountains, East Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 124, 812-829.

164. Paxman, G.J.G., Jamieson, S.S.R., Ferraccioli, F., Bentley, M.J., Ross, N., Armadillo, E., Gasson, E.G.W., Leitchenkov, G., and DeConto, R.M. (2018). Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent. Geophysical Research Letters 45, 4114-4123.

165. Sugden, D.E., and Jamieson, S.S.R. (2018). The pre-glacial landscape of Antarctica. Scottish Geographical 134, 203-223.

166. Austermann, J., Mitrovica, J.X., Huybers, P., and Rovere, A. (2017). Detection of a dynamic topography signal in last interglacial sea-level records. Science Advances 3, e1700457.

167. Fraser, C.I., Terauds, A., Smellie, J., Convey, P., and Chown, S.L. (2014). Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, 5634-5639.

168. Mock, T., Otillar, R.P., Strauss, J., McMullan, M., Paajanen, P., Schmutz, J., Salamov, A., Sanges, R., Toseland, A., Ward, B.J., et al. (2017). Evolutionary genomics of the cold-adapted diatom *Fragilariopsis cylindrus*. Nature 541, 536-540.

169. Kim, B.M., Amores, A., Kang, S., Ahn, D.H., Kim, J.H., Kim, I.C., Lee, J.H., Lee, S.G., Lee, H., Lee, J., et al. (2019). Antarctic blackfin icefish genome reveals adaptations to extreme environments. Nature Ecology and Evolution 3, 469-478.

170. Shin, S.C., Ahn, D.H., Kim, S.J., Pyo, C.W., Lee, H., Kim, M.K., Lee, J., Lee, J.E., Detrich, H.W., Postlethwait, J.H., et al. (2014). The genome sequence of the Antarctic bullhead notothen reveals evolutionary adaptations to a cold environment. Genome Biology 15, 468.

171. Kelley, J.L., Peyton, J.T., Fiston-Lavier, A.-S., Teets, N.M., Yee, M.-C., Johnston, J.S., Bustamante, C.D., Lee, R.E., and Denlinger, D.L. (2014). Compact genome of the Antarctic midge is likely an adaptation to an extreme environment. Nature Communications 5, 4611.

172. Ji, M., Greening, C., Vanwonterghem, I., Carere, C.R., Bay, S.K., Steen, J.A., Montgomery, K., Lines, T., Beardall, J., van Dorst, J., et al. (2017). Atmospheric trace gases support primary production in Antarctic desert surface soil. Nature 552, 400-403.

173. Diaz, A., Gérard, K., Gonzalez-Wevar, C., Maturana, C., Féral, J.-P., David, B., Saucède, T., and Poulin, E. (2018). Genetic structure and demographic inference of the regular sea urchin *Sterechinus neumayeri* (Meissner, 1900) in the Southern Ocean: The role of the last glaciation. PLoS One 13, e0197611.

174. Frugone, M.J., Lowther, A., Noll, D., Ramos, B., Pistorius, P., Dantas, G.P.M., Petry, M.V., Bonadonna, F., Steinfurth, A., Polanowski, A., Raya Rey, A., Lois, N.A., Pütz, K., Trathan, P., Wienecke, B., Poulin, E., and Vianna, J.A. (2018). Contrasting phylogeographic pattern among *Eudyptes* penguins around the Southern Ocean. Scientific Reports 8, 17481.

175. Fraser, C.I., Morrison, A.K., McC Hogg, A., Macaya, E.C., van Sebille, E., Ryan, P.G., Padovan A., Jack, C., Valdivia, N., and Waters, J.M. (2018). Antarctica's ecological isolation will be broken by storm-driven dispersal and warming. Nature Climate Change 8, 704-708.

176. Leiva, C., Taboada, S., Kenny, N. J., Combosch, D., Giribet, G., Jombart, T., and Riesgo, A. (2019). Population substructure and signals of divergent adaptive selection
despite admixture in the sponge *Dendrilla antarctica* from shallow waters surrounding the
Antarctic Peninsula. Molecular Ecology 28, 3151-3170.

177. Cristofari, R., Bertorelle, G., Ancel, A., Benazzo, A., Le Maho, Y., Ponganis, P.J., Stenseth, N.C., Trathan, P.N., Whittington, J.D., Zanetti, E., et al. (2016). Full circumpolar migration ensures evolutionary unity in the Emperor penguin. Nature Communications 7, 11842.

178. Moon, K.L., Chown, S.L., and Fraser, C.I. (2017). Reconsidering connectivity in the sub-Antarctic. Biological Reviews 92, 2164-2181.

179. Barnes, D.K.A. and Hillenbrand, C.D. (2010). Faunal evidence for a late quaternary trans-Antarctic seaway. Global Change Biology 16, 3297-3303.

180. Chown, S.L., Clarke, A., Fraser C.I., Cary S.C., Moon, K.L. & McGeoch, M.A. (2015). The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity. Nature 522, 427-434.

181. Soler-Membrives, A., Linse, K. Miller, K.J., Arango, C.P. (2017). Genetic signature of Last Glacial Maximum regional refugia in a circum-Antarctic sea spider. Royal Society Open Science 4, 170615

182. Clarke, A., and Crame, J.A. (2010) Evolutionary dynamics at high latitudes: speciation and extinction in polar marine faunas. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365, 3655-3666.

183. Collins, G.E., Hogg I.D., Convey P., Barnes A.D. and McDonald I.R. (2019). Spatial and temporal scales matter when assessing the species and genetic diversity of springtails (Collembola) in Antarctica. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 7, 76.

184. Basher, Z., and Costello, M.J. (2016). The past, present and future distribution of a deep-sea shrimp in the Southern Ocean. PeerJ - Life & Environment 4, e1713.

185. Trucchi, E., Gratton, P., Whittington, J.D., Cristofari, R., Le Maho, Y., Stenseth, N.C., and Le Bohec, C. (2014). King penguin demography since the last glaciation inferred from genome-wide data, Proceedings of the Royal Society London B, 281, 20140528.

186. Cristofari, R., Liu, X., Bonadonna, F., Cherel, Y., Pistorius, P., Le Maho, Y., Raybaud, V., Stenseth, N.C., Trucchi, E., and Le Bohec, C. (2018). Climate-driven range shifts of King Penguins in a fragmented ecosystem. Nature Climate Change 8, 245-251.

187. Younger, J.L., Emmerson, L.M., and Miller, K.J. (2016). The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis. Global Change Biology 22, 474-493.

188. Cabrera, A.A., Schall, E., Bérubé, M., Bachmann, L., Berrow, S., Best, P.B., Clapham, P.J., Cunha, H.A., Rosa, L.D., Dias, C., et al. (2018). Strong and lasting impacts of past global warming on baleen whale and prey abundance. BioRxiv 497388.

189. Yu, Z., Beilman, D.W., and Loisel, J. (2016). Transformations of landscape and peat-forming ecosystems in response to late Holocene climate change in the western Antarctic Peninsula. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 7186-7195.

190. Atkinson, A., Hill, S.L., Pakhomov, E.A., Siegel, V., Reiss, C.S., Loeb, V.J., Steinberg, D.K., Schmidt, K., Tarling, G.A., Gerrish, L., et al. (2019). Krill (*Euphausia superba*) distribution contracts southward during rapid regional warming. Nature Climate Change 9, 142-147.

191. Sancho, L.G., Pintado, A., Navarro, F., Ramos, M., De Pablo, M.A., Blanquer, J.M., Raggio, R., Valladares, F., and Green, T.G.A (2017). Recent warming and cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula region has rapid and large effects on lichen vegetation. Scientific Reports 7, 5689.
192. O'Brien, K.M. (2016). New Lessons from an old fish: what Antarctic icefishes may reveal about the functions of oxygen-binding proteins. Integrative and Comparative Biology 56, 531-541.

193. Biersma, E.M., Jackson, J.A., Stech, M., Griffiths, H., Linse K., and Convey P. (2018). Molecular data suggest long-term in situ Antarctic persistence within Antarctica's most speciose plant genus, *Schistidium*. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 6, 77.

194. Dornburg, A., Federman, S., Lamb, A.D., Jones, C.D., and Near, T.J. (2017). Cradles and museums of Antarctic teleost biodiversity. Nature. Ecology and Evolution 1, 1379-1384.

195. O'Hara, T.D., Hugall, A.F., Woolley, S.N.C., Bribiesca-Contreras, G., and Bax, N.J. (2019). Contrasting processes drive ophiuroid phylodiversity across shallow and deep seafloors. Nature 565, 636-639.

196. Rabosky, D.L., Chang, J., Title, P.O., Cowman, P.F., Sallan, L., Friedman, M., Kaschner, K., Garilao, C., Near, T.J., Coll, M., et al. (2018). An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes. Nature 559, 392-395.

197. Christner, B.C., Priscu, J.C., Achberger, A.M., Barbante, C., Carter, S.P., Christianson, K., Michaud, A.B., Mikucki, J.A., Mitchell, A.C., Skidmore, M.L., et al. (2014). A microbial ecosystem beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 512, 310-313.

198. Mikucki, J.A., Auken, E., Tulaczyk, S., Virginia, R.A., Schamper, C., Sorensen, K.I., Doran, P.T., Dugan, H., and Foley, N. (2015). Deep groundwater and potential subsurface habitats beneath an Antarctic dry valley. Nature Communications 6, 6831.

199. Dugan, H.A., Doran, P.T., Tulaczyk, S., Mikucki, J.A., Arcone, S.A., Auken, E., Schamper, C., and Virginia, R.A. (2015). Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 96-103.

200. Terauds, A. and Lee, J.R. (2016) Antarctic biogeography revisited: updating the Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions. Diversity and Distributions 22, 836-840.

201. Aronson, R.B., Thatje, S., Clarke, A., Peck, L.S., Blake, D.B., Wilga, C.D., and Seibel, B.A. (2007). Climate change and invasibility of the Antarctic benthos. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 38, 129-154.

202. Bokhorst, S., Convey, P., Huiskes, A. and Aerts, R. (2016). *Usnea antarctica*, an important Antarctic lichen, is vulnerable to aspects of regional environmental change. Polar Biology 39, 511-521.

203. Robinson, S.A., King, D.H., Bramley-Alves, J., Waterman, M.J., Ashcroft, M.B., Wasley, J., Turnbull, J.D., Miller, R.E., Ryan-Colton, E., Benny, T., et al. (2018). Rapid change in East Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in response to regional drying. Nature Climate Change 8, 879.

204. Amesbury, M.J., Roland, T.P., Royles, J., Hodgson, D.A., Convey, P., Griffiths, H. and Charman, D.J. (2017). Widespread biological response to rapid warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Current Biology 27, 1616-1622.

205. Smith, K.E., Aronson, R.B., Thatje, S., Lovrich, G.A., Amsler, M.O., Steffel, B.V., and McClintock, J.B. (2017). Biology of the king crab *Paralomis birsteini* on the continental slope off the western Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology 40, 2313-2322.

206. Ashton, G., Morley, S.A., Barnes, D.K.A., Clark, M.S., Peck, L.S. (2017). Warming by 1°C drives species and assemblage level responses in Antarctica's marine shallows. Current Biology 27, 2698-2705.

207. Gardner, J., Manno, C., Bakker, D., Peck, V.L., and Tarling, G.A. (2018). Southern Ocean pteropods at risk from ocean warming and acidification. Marine Biology 165, 8.
208. Cross, E., Harper, E.M., and Peck, L.S. (2019). Thicker shells compensate extensive dissolution in brachiopods under future ocean acidification. Environmental Science and Technology 53, 5016-5026.

209. Ingels, J., Aronson, R.B., and Smith, C.R. (2019). The scientific response to Antarctic ice-shelf loss. Nature Climate Change 8, 848-851.

210. Sahade, R., Lagger, C., Torre, L., Momo, F., Monien, P., Schloss, I., Barnes, D.K.A., Servetto, N., Tarantelli, S., Tatián, M., et al. (2015). Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem. Science Advances 1, 10.

211. Trathan, P.N., Wienecke, B., Barbarud, C., Jenouvrier, S., Kooyman, G., Le Bohec, C., Ainley, D.G., Ancel, A., Zitterbart, D.P., Chown, et al. (in press). The emperor penguin – vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. Biological Conservation.

212. Gutt, J., Adams, B., Bracegirdle, T., Cowan, D., Cummings, V., di Prisco, G., Gradinger, R., Isla, E., McIntyre, T., Murphy, E., et al. (2013). Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation a new SCAR-Biology Programme. Polarforschung 82, 147-150.

213. Gutt, J., Isla, E., Bertler, A.N., Bodeker, G.E., Bracegirdle, T.J., Cavanagh, R.D., Comiso, J.C., Convey, P., Cummings, V., De Conto, R., et al. (2018). Cross-disciplinarity in the advance of Antarctic ecosystem research. Marine Genomics 37, 1-17.

214. Clark, G.F., Stark, J.S., Johnston, E.L., Runcie, J.W., Goldsworthy, P.M., Raymond, B., and Riddle, M.J. (2013). Light-driven tipping points in polar ecosystems. Global Change Biology 19, 3749-3761.

215. Kapsenberg, L., Kelley, A.L., Shaw, E.C., Martz, T.R., and Hofmann, G.E. (2015) Near-shore Antarctic pH variability has implications for the design of ocean acidification experiments. Scientific Reports 5, 9638.

216. Gooseff, M.N., Barrett, J.E., Adams, B.J., Doran, P.T., Fountain, A.G., Lyons, W.B., McKnight, D.M., Priscu, J.C., Sokol, E.R., Takacs-Vesbach, C., et al. (2017). Decadal ecosystem response to an anomalous melt season in a polar desert in Antarctica. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 1334.

217. Fountain, A.G., Saba, G., Adams, B., Doran, P., Fraser, W., Gooseff, M., Obryk, M., Priscu, J.C., Stammerjohn, S., and Virginia, R.A. (2016). The impact of a large-scale climate event on Antarctic ecosystem processes. BioScience 66, 848-863.

218. Clark, M.S., Nieve, L.V., Hoffman, J.L., Davies, A.L., Trivedi, U.H., Tuner, F., Ashton, G.V. and Peck, L.S. (in press). No long-term acclimation in Antarctic encrusting species: vulnerabilities in a warmer world. Nature Communications.

219. Cross, E.L., Peck, L.S., and Harper, E.M. (2015). Ocean acidification does not impact shell growth or repair of the Antarctic brachiopod *Liothyrella uva* (Broderip, 1833). Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 462, 29-35.

220. Henley, S.F., Schofield, O.M., Hendry, K.R., Schloss, I.R., Steinberg, D.K., Moffat, C., Peck, L.S., Costa, D.P., Bakker, D.C.E., Hughes, C., et al. (2019). Variability and change in the west Antarctic Peninsula marine system: Research priorities and opportunities. Progress in Oceanography 173, 208-237.

221. Petrou, K., Kranz, S., Trimborn, S., Hassler, C.S., Blanco Ameijeiras, S., Sackett, O., Beardall, J., Davidson, A., and Ralph, P.J. (2016). Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate. Journal of Plant Physiology 203, 135-150.

222. Schoenrock, K.M., Schram, J.B., Amsler, C.D., McClintock, J.B. and Angus, R.A. 2015. Climate change impacts on overstory *Desmarestia* spp. from the western Antarctic Peninsula. Marine Biology 162, 377-389.
223. Suckling, C., Clark, M.S., Richard, J., Morley, S.A., Thorne, M.A.S., Harper, E.M., and Peck, L.S. (2015). Adult acclimation to combined temperature and pH stressors significantly enhances reproductive outcomes compared to short-term exposures. Journal of Animal Ecology 84, 773-784.

224. Bergstrom, D.M., Bricher, P.K., Raymond, B., Terauds, A., Doley, D., McGeoch, M.A., Whinam, J., Glen, M., Yuan, Z., Kiefer, K., et al. (2015). Rapid collapse of a sub-Antarctic alpine ecosystem: the role of climate and pathogens. Journal of Applied Ecology 52, 774-783.

225. Janion-Scheepers, C., Phillips, L., Sgrò, C.M., Duffy, G.A., Hallas, R., and Chown, S.L. (2018). Basal resistance enhances warming tolerance of alien over indigenous species across latitude. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115, 145-150.

226. Haver, S.M., Klinck, H., Nieukirk, S.L., Matsumoto, H., Dziak, R.P., and Miksis-Olds, J.L. (2017). The not-so-silent world: Measuring Arctic, Equatorial, and Antarctic soundscapes in the Atlantic Ocean. Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 122, 95-104.

227. Van Opzeeland I., and Boebel O. (2018). Marine soundscape planning: Seeking acoustic niches for anthropogenic sound. Journal of Ecoacoustics. 2, #5GSNT8.

228. Casà, M.V., Van, L.M., Weijs, L., Mueller, J., and Nash, S.B. (2019). First detection of short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) in humpback whales (*Megaptera novaeangliae*) foraging in Antarctic waters. Environmental Pollution 250, 953-959.

229. Carravieri, A., Fort, J., Tarroux, A., Cherel, Y., Love, O.P., Prieur, S., Brault-Favrou, M., Bustamante, P., and Descamps, S. (2018). Mercury exposure and short-term consequences on physiology and reproduction in Antarctic petrels. Environmental Pollution, 237, 824-831.

230. Tartu, S., Angelier, F., Wingfield, J.C., Bustamante, P., Labadie, P., Budzinski, H., Weimerskirch, H., Bustnes, J.O. and Chastel, O. (2015). Corticosterone, prolactin and egg neglect behavior in relation to mercury and legacy POPs in a long-lived Antarctic bird. Science of the Total Environment, 505, 180-188.

231. Seco, J., Xavier, J.C., Coelho, J.P., Pereira, B., Tarling, G., Pardal, M.A., Bustamante, P., Stowasser, G., Brierley, A.S. and Pereira, M.E. (2019). Spatial variability in total and organic mercury levels in Antarctic krill *Euphausia superba* across the Scotia Sea. Environmental Pollution, 247, 332-339.

232. Potapowicz, J., Szumińska, D., Szopińska, M., Polkowska, Z. (2019). The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost Part I. Case study of Antarctica. Science of the Total Environment, 651, 1534-1548.

233. Wilcox, C., Sebille, E.V., and Hardesty, B.D. (2015). Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, 11899-11904.

234. Isobe, A., Uchiyama-Matsumoto, K., Uchida, K., and Tokai, T. (2017). Microplastics in the Southern Ocean. Marine Pollution Bulletin 114, 623-626.

235. Lacerda, A.L. d F., Rodrigues, L. dos S., Sebille, E. van, Rodrigues, F.L., Ribeiro, L., Secchi, E.R., Kessler, F., and Proietti, M.C. (2019). Plastics in sea surface waters around the Antarctic Peninsula. Scientific Reports 9.

236. Waller, C.L., Griffiths, H.J., Waluda, C.M., Thorpe, S.E., Loaiza, I., Moreno, B., Pacherres, C.O., and Hughes, K.A. (2017). Microplastics in the Antarctic marine system: An emerging area of research. Science of the Total Environment 598, 220-227.
237. Wang, P., Li, Y., Zhang, Q., Yang, Q., Zhang, L., Liu, F., Fu, J., Meng, W., Wang, D., Sun, H., et al. (2017). Three-year monitoring of atmospheric PCBs and PBDEs at the Chinese Great Wall Station, West Antarctica: Levels, chiral signature, environmental behaviors and source implication. Atmospheric Environment 150, 407–416.

238. Pozo, K., Martellini, T., Corsolini, S., Harner, T., Estellano, V., Kukučka, P., Mulder, M.D., Lammel, G., and Cincinelli, A. (2017). Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere of coastal areas of the Ross Sea, Antarctica: indications for long-term downward trends. Chemosphere 178, 458–465.

239. Bengtson Nash, S.M., Wild, S.J., Hawker, D.W., Cropp, R.A., Hung, H., Wania, F., Xiao, H., Bohlin-Nizzetto, P., Bignert, A., and Broomhall, S. (2017). Persistent Organic Pollutants in the East Antarctic Atmosphere: Inter-Annual Observations from 2010 to 2015 Using High-Flow-Through Passive Sampling. Environmental Science & Technology 51, 13929-13937.

240. Sancho, L.G., Pintado, A., and Green, T.G.A. (2019). Antarctic studies show lichens to be excellent biomonitors of climate change. Diversity 11, 42.

241. Casey, K.A., Kaspari, S.D., Skiles, S.M., Kreutz, K. and Handley, M.J. (2017). The spectral and chemical measurement of pollutants on snow near South Pole, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 122, 6592-6610.

242. Houghton, M., McQuillan, P.B., Bergstrom, D.M., Frost, L., Hoff, J. van den, and Shaw, J. (2016). Pathways of alien invertebrate transfer to the Antarctic region. Polar Biology 39, 23-33.

243. Newman, J., Poirot, C., Roper-Gee, R., Leihy, R.I., and Chown, S.L. (2018). A decade of invertebrate colonization pressure on Scott Base in the Ross Sea region. Biological Invasions 20, 2623-2633.

244. McCarthy, A., Peck, L.S., Hughes, K. and Aldridge, D.A. (2019). Antarctica: the final frontier for marine biological invasions. Global Change Biology 2019, 1-21.

245. Phillips, L., Janion-Scheepers, C., Houghton, M., Terauds, A., Potapov, M., and Chown, S.L. (2017). Range expansion of two invasive springtails on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Polar Biology 40, 2137-2142.

246. Enríquez, N., Pertierra, L.R., Tejedo, P., Benayas, J., Greenslade, P., and Luciáñez, M.J. (2019). The importance of long-term surveys on species introductions in Maritime Antarctica: first detection of *Ceratophysella succinea* (Collembola: Hypogastruridae). Polar Biology 42, 1047–1051.

247. Duffy, G.A., Coetzee, B.W.T., Latombe, G., Akerman, A.H., McGeoch, M.A., and Chown, S.L. (2017). Barriers to globally invasive species are weakening across the Antarctic. Diversity and Distributions 23, 982–996.

248. Pertierra, L.R., Aragón, P., Shaw, J.D., Bergstrom, D.M., Terauds, A., and Olalla-Tárraga, M.Á. (2017). Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica. Global Change Biology 23, 2863–2873.

249. Mathakutha, R., Steyn, C., Roux, P.C. le, Blom, I.J., Chown, S.L., Daru, B.H., Ripley, B.S., Louw, A., and Greve, M. (in press). Invasive species differ in key functional traits from native and non-invasive alien plant species. Journal of Vegetation Science https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12772

250. Cannone, N., Guglielmin, M., Convey, P., Worland, M.R., and Longo, S.E.F. (2016). Vascular plant changes in extreme environments: effects of multiple drivers. Climatic Change 134, 651-665.
251. Adriaenssens, E.M., Kramer, R., Van Goethem, M.W., Makhalanyane, T.P., Hogg, I., and Cowan, D.A. (2017). Environmental drivers of viral community composition in Antarctic soils identified by viromics. *Microbiome* 5, e83.

252. Aguirre de Cárcer, D., López-Bueno, A., Alonso-Lobo, J. M., Quesada, A., and Alcami, A. (2016). Metagenomic analysis of lacustrine viral diversity along a latitudinal transect of the Antarctic Peninsula. *FEMS Microbiology Ecology* 92, fiw074.

253. Miranda, J.A., Culley, A.I., Schvarcz, C.R., and Steward, G.F. (2016). RNA viruses as major contributors to Antarctic viroplankton. *Environmental Microbiology* 18, 3714-3727.

254. Smeele, Z.E., Ainley, D.G., and Varsani, A. (2018). Viruses associated with Antarctic wildlife: From serology-based detection to identification of genomes using high throughput sequencing. *Virus Research* 243, 91-105.

255. Cavicchioli, R. and Erdmann, S. (2015). The discovery of Antarctic RNA viruses: A new game changer. *Molecular Ecology* 24, 4809-4811.

256. Cristina, J., (2019) Molecular biology of RNA viruses isolated in Antarctica. the ecological role of microorganisms in the Antarctic environment, In: Castro-Sowinski S. (eds) The Ecological Role of Micro-organisms in the Antarctic Environment. Springer Polar Sciences. Springer, Berlin, pp.197-217.

257. Evans, C., Brandsma, J., Pond, D.W., and Venables, H.J. (2017). Drivers of interannual variability in viroplankton abundance at the coastal western Antarctic peninsula and the potential effects of climate change. *Environmental Microbiology* 19, 740-755.

258. De Souza Petersen, E. de Araujo, J., Kruger, L., Seixas, M., Ometto, T. Thomazelli, L.M., Walker, D., Durigon, E.L., Petry, M.V. (2017). First detection of avian influenza virus (H4N7) in Giant Petrel monitored by geolocators in the Antarctic region. *Marine Biology* 164, 62.

259. Wille, M., Aban, M., Wang, J., Moore, N., Shan, S., Marshall J., González-Acuña D., Vijaykrishna, D., Butler, J., Wang, J., Hall, R.J., Williams, D.T., and Hurt, A.C. (2019). Antarctic penguins as reservoirs of diversity for avian avulaviruses. *Journal of Virology* 93, e00271-19.

260. Lee, J.E., and Chown, S.L. (2007). *Mytilus* on the move: transport of an invasive bivalve to the Antarctic. *Marine Ecology Progress Series* 339, 307-310.

261. Peck, L.S. (2018). Antarctic marine biodiversity: adaptations, environments and responses to change. *Oceanography and Marine Biology - An Annual Review* 56, 105-236.

262. Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E.A., Rothery, P., Loeb, V., Ross, R.M., Quetin, L.B., Schmidt, K., Fretwell, P., Murphy, E.J., Tarling, G.A., and Fleming, A.H. (2008). Oceanic circumpolar habitats of Antarctic krill. *Marine Ecology Progress Series* 362, 1-23.

263. Reiss, C.S., Cossio, A., Santora, J.A., Dietrich, K.S., Murray, A., Mitchell, B.G., Walsh, J., Weiss, E.L., Gimpel, C., Jones, C.D., and Watters, G.M. (2017). Overwinter habitat selection by Antarctic krill under varying sea-ice conditions: implications for top predators and fishery management. *Marine Ecology Progress Series* 568, 1-16.

264. Reid, K. (2018) Climate change Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptations: Southern Ocean marine fisheries. In *Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture*, ed. M. Barange, T. Bahri, M.C.M. Beveridge, K.L Cochrane, S. Funge-Smith, and F. Poulain, pp. 363–373. (FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 67, Rome).

265. 268. Nicol, S., and Foster, J. (2016). The fishery for Antarctic krill – its current status and management regime. In *Biology and ecology of Antarctic krill*, ed. V. Siegel, pp. 387–421. (Springer, Berlin
266. Piñones, A., and Fedorov, A.V. (2016). Projected changes of Antarctic krill habitat by the end of the 21st century, Geophysical Research Letters 43, 8580–8589.

267. Trathan, P.N., Warwick-Evans, V., Hinke, J.T., Young, E.F., Murphy, E.J., Carneiro, A.P.B., Dias, M.P., Kovacs, K.M., Lowther, A.D., Godø, O.R., et al. (2018). Managing fishery development in sensitive ecosystems: identifying penguin habitat use to direct management in Antarctica. Ecosphere 9, e02392.

268. Meredith, M.P., Stammerjohn, S.E., Venables, H.J., Ducklow, H.W., Martinson, D.G., Iannuzzi, R.A., Leng, M.J., van Wessem, J.M., Reijmer, C.H., and Barrand, N.E. (2017). Changing distributions of sea ice melt and meteoric water west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Deep-Sea Research Part II-Topical Studies in Oceanography 139, 40-57.

269. Fuentes, V., Alurralde, G., Meyer, B., Aguirre, G.E., Canepa, A., Wolfl, A.C., Hass, H.C., Williams, G.N., and Schloss, I.R. (2016). Glacial melting: an overlooked threat to Antarctic krill. Scientific Reports 6, 27234.

270. Lagger, C., Servetto, N., Torre, L., and Sahade, R. (2017). Benthic colonization in newly ice-free soft-bottom areas in an Antarctic fjord. PLoS One 12, e0186756.

271. Lagger, C., Nime, M., Torre, L., Servetto, N., Tatián, M., and Sahade, R. (2018). Climate change, glacier retreat and a new ice-free island offer new insights on Antarctic benthic responses. Ecography 141, 579–591.

272. Treasure, A.M., Ruzicka, J.J., Moloney, C.L., Gurney, L.J., and Ansorge, I.J. (2015) Land–sea interactions and consequences for sub-Antarctic marine food webs. Ecosystems 18, 752-768.

273. Ramirez-Fernandez, L., Trefault, N., Caru, M. and Orlando, J. (2019). Seabird and pinniped shape soil bacterial communities of their settlements in Cape Shirreff, Antarctica. PLOS One 14, e0209887.

274. Grange, L.J. and Smith, C.R. (2013). Megafaunal communities in rapidly warming fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula: Hotspots of abundance and beta diversity. PLOS One 8, e77917.

275. Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, M. Pearson, T.H. and Kendall, M.A. (2005). Benthic response to chronic natural physical disturbance by glacial sedimentation in an Arctic fjord. Marine Ecology Progress Series 303, 31–41.

276. Constable, A.J., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Corney, S.P., Arrigo, K.R., Barbraud, C., Barnes, D.K.A., Bindoff, N.L., Boyd, P.W., Brandt, A., Costa, D.P., et al. (2014). Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota. Global Change Biology 20, 3004-3025.

277. St-Laurent, P., Yager, P.L., Sherrell, R.M., Oliver, H., Dinniman, M.S., and Stammerjohn, S.E. (2019). Modeling the seasonal cycle of Iron and Carbon fluxes in the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124, 1544-1565.

278. Cape, M.R., Vernet, M., Kahru, M., and Sreen, G. (2014). Polynya dynamics drive primary production in the Larsen A and B embayments following ice shelf collapse. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 119, 572-594.

279. Cape, M.R., Vernet, M., Pettit, E.C., Wellner, J., Truffer, M., Akie, G., Domack, E., Leventer, A., Smith, C.R., and Huber, B.A. (2019). Circumpolar deep water impacts glacial meltwater export and coastal biogeochemical cycling along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Frontiers in Marine Science doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00144.

280. Wallis, J.R., Swadling, K.M., Everett, J.D., Suthers, I.M., Jones, H.J., Buchanan, P.J., Crawford, C.M., James, L.C., Johnson, R., Meiners, K.M., et al. (2016). Zooplankton abundance and biomass size spectra in the East Antarctic sea-ice zone during the winter–
spring transition. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 131, 170–181.

281. Michel, L.N., Danis, B., Dubois, P., Eleaume, M., Fournier, J., Gallut, C., Jane, P., and Lepoint, G. (2019). Increased sea ice cover alters food web structure in East Antarctica. Scientific Reports 9, 8062.

282. Nielsen, U.N., Wall, D.H., Adams, B.J., Virginia, R.A., Ball, B.A., Gooseff, M.N., and McKnight, D.M. (2012). The ecology of pulse events: insights from an extreme climatic event in a polar desert ecosystem. Ecosphere 3, art17.

283. Getzlaff, J., and Oschlies, A. (2017). Pilot Study on potential impacts of fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality on marine biogeochemistry. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31, 1656–1673.

284. Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V. (2018). Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic overturning circulation Nature 556, 191–196.

285. Jenkyns, H.C. (2010). Geochemistry of oceanic anoxic events. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 11, Q03004.

286. Nakayama, Y., Menemenlis, D., Zhang, H., Schodlok, M., and Rignot, E. (2018). Origin of circumpolar deep water intruding onto the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea continental shelves. Nature Communications 9, 3403.

287. Brandt, A., De Broyer, C., Ebbe, B., Ellingsen, K. E., Gooday, A. J., Janussen, D., Kaiser, S., Linse, K., Schueller, M., Thomson, M.R.A., et al. (2012). Southern Ocean deep benthic biodiversity. In Antarctic Ecosystems: An Extreme Environment in a Changing World, ed. A.D. Rogers, N.M. Johnston, E.J. Murphy, and A. Clarke, pp. 291–334. (Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.).

288. Lescroël, A., Ballard, G., Gremillet, D., Authier, M., and Ainley, D.G. (2014). Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins. PLoS One 9, e85291.

289. Andriuzzi, W.S., Adams, B.J., Barett, J.E., Virginia, R.A., and Wall, D.H. (2018) Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change. Ecology 99, 312–321.

290. Rydt, J.D., Gudmundsson, G.H., Nagler, T., and Wuite, J. (2019). Calving cycle of the Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica, driven by changes in ice-shelf geometry. The Cryosphere Discussions, 1–19.

291. Fretwell, P.T., and Trathan, P.N. (2019). Emperors on thin ice: three years of breeding failure at Halley Bay. Antarctic Science 31, 133–138.

292. Ancel, A., Cristofari, R., Fretwell, P.T., Trathan, P.N., Wienecke, B., Boureau, M., Morinay, J., Le Maho, Y., and Le Bohec, C. (2014) Emperors in hiding: when ice breakers and satellites complement each other in Antarctic exploration, PLoS One 9, e100404.

293. Steinhoff, D. F., Bromwich, D.H., Speirs, J.C., McGowan, H.A., and Monaghan A.J. (2014) Austral summer foehn winds over the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica from Polar WRF. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140, 1825–1837.

294. Zou, X., Bromwich, D.H., Nicolas, J.P., Montenegro, A. and Wang, S.-H. (2019) West Antarctic surface melt event of January 2016 facilitated by foehn warming. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145, 687–704.

295. Kobelkova, A., Goto, S.G., Peyton, J.T., Ikeno, T., Lee, R.E., and Denlinger, D.L. (2015). Continuous activity and no cycling of clock genes in the Antarctic midge during the polar summer. Journal of Insect Physiology 81, 90–96.
296. Hamm, J.N., Erdmann, S., Eloe-Fadrosh, E.A., Angeloni, A., Zhong, L., Brownlee, C., Williams, T.J., Barton, K., Carswell, S., Smith, M.A., et al. (2019). Unexpected host dependency of Antarctic Nanohaloarchaeota. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116, 14661–14670.

297. Chou, L., Kenig, F., Murray, A.E., Fritsen, C.H., and Doran, P.T. (2018). Effects of legacy metabolites from previous ecosystems on the environmental metabolomics of the brine of Lake Vida, East Antarctica. Organic Geochemistry 122, 161–170.

298. Tschitschko, B., Erdmann, S., DeMaere, M.Z., Roux, S., Panwar, P., Allen, M.A., Williams, T.J., Brazendale, S., Hancock, A.M., Eloe-Fadrosh, E.A., et al. (2018). Genomic variation and biogeography of Antarctic haloarchaea. Microbiome 6, 113.

299. Niederberger, T.D., Bottos, E.M., Sohm, J.A., Gunderson, T., Parker, A., Coyne, K.J., Capone, D.G., Carpenter, E.J., and Cary, S.C. (2019). Rapid microbial dynamics in response to an induced wetting event in Antarctic dry valley soils. Frontiers in Microbiology 10, doi: doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.00621.

300. Santora, J.A., Veit, R.R., Reiss, C.S., Schroeder, I.D., Mangel, M. (2017). Ecosystem oceanography of seabird hotspots: environmental determinants and relationship with Antarctic krill within an important fishing ground. Ecosystems 20, 885-903.

301. Roquet, F., Boehme, L., Block, B., Charrassin, J.-B., Costa, D., Guinet, C., Harcourt, R.G., Hindell, M.A., Hückstädt, L.A., McMahon, C.R., et al. (2017). Ocean observations using tagged animals. Oceanography 30, 139.

302. Reisinger, R.R., Raymond, B., Hindell, M.A., Bester, M.N., Crawford, R.J.M., Davies, D., de Bruyn, P.J.N., Dilley, B.J., Kirkman, S.P., Makhado, A.B., et al. (2018). Habitat modelling of tracking data from multiple marine predators identifies important areas in the Southern Indian Ocean. Diversity and Distributions 24, 535-550.

303. Smith, D., McGee, J., and Jabour, J. (2016). Marine protected areas: a spark for contestation over 'rational use' of Antarctic marine living resources in the Southern Ocean? Journal Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs 8, 180-198.

304. Brooks, C.M. (2013). Competing values on the Antarctic high seas: CCAMLR and the challenge of marine-protected areas. The Polar Journal 3, 277-300.

305. Brooks, C.M., Crowder, L.B., Curran, L.M., Dunbar, R.B., Ainley, D.G., Dodds, K.J., Gjerde, K.M., and Sumaila, U.R. (2016). Science-based management in decline in the Southern Ocean. Science 354, 185-187.

306. Jacquet, J., Blood-Patterson, E., Brooks, C., and, Ainley, D. (2016). 'Rational use' in Antarctic waters. Marine Policy 63, 28-34.

307. Liu, N., and Brooks, C.M. (2018). China's changing position towards marine protected areas in the Southern Ocean: Implications for future Antarctic governance. Marine Policy 94, 189-195.

308. Antarctic Genetic Archive, https://ictar.ag/antarctic-genetic-archive/

309. Puig-Marcó, R. (2014). Access and benefit sharing of Antarctica's Biological Material. Marine Genomics 17, 73–78.

310. Rabosky, D.L., Chang, J., Title, P.O., Cowman, P.F., Sallan, L., Friedman, M., Kaschner, K., Garilao, C., Near, T.J., Coll, M., et al. (2018). An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes. Nature 559, 392.

311. O'Hara, T.D., Hugall, A.F., Woolley, S.N.C., Bribiesca-Contreras, G., and Bax, N.J. (2019). Contrasting processes drive ophiuroid phylodiversity across shallow and deep seafloors. Nature 565, 636.
312. De Broyer, C., Koubbi, P., Griffiths, H.J., Raymond, B., D'Acoz, C.d.U., van de Putte, A., Danis, B., David, B., Grant, S.M., Gutt, J., et al. (2014). Biogeographic Atlas of the Southern Ocean. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, Cambridge.

313. Douglass, L.L., Turner, J., Grantham, H.S., Kaiser, S., Constable, A., Nicoll, R., Raymond, B., Post, A., Brandt, A., and Beaver, D. (2014). A hierarchical classification of benthic biodiversity and assessment of protected areas in the Southern Ocean. PLoS One 9, e100551.

314. Shaw, J.D., Terauds, A., Riddle, M.J., Possingham, H.P. and Chown, S.L. (2014). Antarctica's protected areas are inadequate, unrepresentative, and at risk. PLoS Biology 12, e1001888.

315. Wauchope, H.S., Shaw, J.D. and Terauds, A. (2019). A snapshot of biodiversity protection in Antarctica. Nature Communications 10, 946.

316. Hughes, K.A. and Convey, P. (2010). The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems from inter- and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by human activities: A review of current systems and practices. Global Environmental Change 20, 96-112.

317. Brooks, C.M., and Ainley, D.G. (2017). Fishing the bottom of the Earth: the political challenges of ecosystem-based management. In Handbook on the Politics of Antarctica, ed. K. Dodds, A.D. Hemmings, P. and Roberts, pp. 422-438. (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar).

318. Staggs, S., Dunkley, J. and Page L. (2018). Recent discoveries from the cosmic microwave background: a review of recent progress. Reports on Progress in Physics 81, 044901.

319. Albert, A., André, M., Anghinolfi, M., Ardid, M., Aubert, J.-J., Aublin, J., Avgitas, T., Baret, B., Barrios-Martí, J., Basa, S., et al. (2019). Search for Multimessenger Sources of Gravitational Waves and High-energy Neutrinos with Advanced LIGO during Its First Observing Run, ANTARES, and IceCube. Astrophysical Journal 870, 134.

320. Burns E., Tohuvavohu, A., Bellovary J.M., Blaufuss, E., Brandt, T.J., Buson, S., Caputo, R., Cenko, S.B., Christensen, N., Conklin, J.W., D'Ammando, F., et al. (2019). Astro2020 Science White Paper, Opportunities for Multimessenger Astronomy in the 2020s. Retrieved from: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.04461

321. Ellis, J., Hektor, A., Hütsi, G., Kannike, K., Marzola, L., Raidal, M., and Vaskonen, V. (2018). Search for dark matter effects on gravitational signals from neutron star mergers. Physics Letters B 781, 607-610.

322. Gaisser, T., and Halzen, F. (2014). IceCube. Annual Review of Nuclear Particle Science 64, 101-123.

323. The Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration, Akiyama, K., Alberdi, A., Alef, W., Asada, K., Azulay, R., Baczko, A.-K., Ball, D., Baloković, M., Barrett, J., et al. (2019). First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole. Astrophysical Journal Letters 875, L6.

324. France, J.A., Randall, C.E., Lieberman, R.S., Harvey, V.L., Eckermann, S.D., Siskind, D.E., et al. (2018). Local and remote planetary wave effects on polar mesospheric clouds in the Northern Hemisphere in 2014. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123, 5149-5162.

325. Goldstein, J., and McComas, D.J. (2018). The Big Picture: Imaging of the Global Geospace Environment by the TWINS Mission. Reviews of Geophysics 56, 251-277.

326. Kim, H., Clauer, C.R., Gerrard, A.J., Engebretson, M.J., Hartinger, M.D., Lessard, M.R., Matzka, J., Sibeck, D.G., Singer, H.J., Stolle, C., et al. (2017). Conjugate
observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves associated with traveling convection vortex events. Journal of Geophysical Research and Space Physics 122, 7336-7352

327. Baker, D.N., and Lanzerotti, L.J. (2016). Resource Letter SW1: Space Weather. American Journal of Physic 84,166.

328. Lanzerotti, L.J. (2017). Space Weather: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives. Space Science Reviews 212, 1253-1270.

329. Perry, G. W. and St.-Maurice, J.P. (2018). A Polar-Cap Patch Detection Algorithm for the Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar System. Radio Science 53(10), 1225-1244.

330. Sojka, J.J. (2017). Locations Where Space Weather Energy Impacts the Atmosphere. Space Science Reviews 212, 1041-1067.

331. de Wit, R.J., Hibbins, R.E., Espy, P.J., and Hennum, E.A. (2015). Coupling in the middle atmosphere related to the 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming. Annals of Geophysics 33, 309-319.

332. Mehta, D., Gerrard, A.J., Ebihara, Y. Weatherwax, A.T., and Lanzerotti, L.J. (2017), Short-period mesospheric gravity waves and their sources at the South Pole, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 911-919.

333. Orr, A., Hosking, J.S., Hoffmann, L., Keeble, J., Dean, S.M., Roscoe, H.K., Abraham, N.L., Vosper, S., and Braesicke, P. (2015). Inclusion of mountain-wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry-climate model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 1071-1086.

334. Chown, S.L., Brooks, C.M., Terauds, A., Bohec, C.L., Klaveren-Impagliazzo, C. van, Whittington, J.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Coetzee, B.W.T., Collen, B., Convey, P., et al. (2017). Antarctica and the strategic plan for biodiversity. PLOS Biology 15, e2001656.

335. Stephens, T. (2018). The Antarctic Treaty System and the Anthropocene. The Polar Journal 8, 29-43.

336. Gladkova, E.N., Blanco-Wells, G., and Nahuelhual, L. (2018). Facing the climate change conundrum at the South Pole: actors' perspectives on the implications of global warming for Chilean Antarctic governance. Polar Research 37, 1468195.

337. Brooks, S.T., Jabour, J., and Bergstrom, D.M. (2018). What is 'footprint' in Antarctica: proposing a set of definitions. Antarctic Science 30, 227-235.

338. Carver, S., and Tin, T. (2015). A Big Blank White Canvas? Mapping and Modelling Human Impact In Antarctica. Science and Stewardship to Protect and Sustain Wilderness Values: Tenth World Wilderness Congress Symposium 2013, 116-12.

339. Summerson, R., and Tin, T. (2018). Twenty years of protection of wilderness values in Antarctica. The Polar Journal 8, 265-288.

340. Pertierra, L. R., Hughes, K. A., Vega, G. C., and Olalla-Tárraga, M. A. (2017). High resolution spatial mapping of human footprint across Antarctica and its implications for the strategic conservation of avifauna. PLoS ONE 12, e0173649.

341. Moore, J.C., Gladstone, R., Zwinger, T., and Wolovick, M. (2018). Geoengineer polar glaciers to slow sea-level rise. Nature 555, 303-305.

342. Wolovick, M.J., and Moore, J.C. (2018). Stopping the flood: could we use targeted geoengineering to mitigate sea level rise? The Cryosphere 12, 2955-2967.

343. Chaturvedi, S. (2018). The future of Antarctica: minerals, bioprospecting, and fisheries. In The Routledge Handbook of the Polar Regions, ed. M. Nuttall, T.R. Christensen, and M. Siegert. (Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge).

344. Dodds, K., Hemmings, A.D., and Roberts, P. (2017). Handbook on the Politics of Antarctica. Edward Elgar Publishing.
345. Harrington, J. (2017). China, Global Ecopolitics and Antarctic Governance: Converging Paths? *Journal of Chinese Political Science* 22, 37–56.

346. Liu, N. (2019). The rise of China and the Antarctic Treaty System? *Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs*, 1–12.

347. Brady, A.-M. (2017). China as a Polar Great Power. Cambridge University Press.

348. Elzinga, A. (2017). The continent for science. In *Handbook on the Politics of Antarctica*, ed. K. Dodds, A.D. Hemmings, and P. Roberts, pp. 103–124. (Edward Elgar Publishing).

349. Tamm, S. (2018). Peace vs. compliance in Antarctica: inspections and the environment. *The Polar Journal* 8, 333–350.

350. Jabour, J. (2014). Strategic Management and Regulation of Antarctic Tourism. Antarctic Futures, 273–286.

351. Liggett, D., and Stewart, E.J. (2017). Sailing in icy waters: Antarctic cruise tourism development, regulation and management. *Cruise Ship Tourism*, 484–504.

352. Student, J., Amelung, B., and Lamers, M. (2016). Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling. *Journal of Sustainable Tourism* 24, 412-429.

353. Verbitsky, J. (2013). Antarctic tourism management and regulation: the need for change. *Polar Record* 49, 278-285.

354. Liggett, D., Frame, B., Gilbert, N., and Morgan, F. (2017). Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica. *Polar Record* 53, 459-478.

355. Stewart, E.J., Liggett, D., and Dawson, J. (2017). The evolution of polar tourism scholarship: research themes, networks and agendas. *Polar Geography* 40, 59-84.

356. Bender, N. A., Crosbie, K., and Lynch, H. J. (2016). Patterns of tourism in the Antarctic Peninsula region: A 20-year analysis. *Antarctic Science* 28, 194-203.

357. Keyuan, Z., and Xinchang, L. (2015). New Trends in China's Practice in Antarctic Expedition Management. The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law 30, 533-550.

358. Luo, F., Becken, S. and Zhong, Y (2018). Changing travel patterns in China and “carbon footprint” implications for a domestic tourist destination. *Tourism Management* 65, 1–13.

359. Delgado, L.E., and Marín, V.H. (2015). Ecosystem services: Where on earth? *Ecosystem Services* 14, 24-26.

360. Grant, S.M., Hill, S.L., Trathan, P.N., and Murphy, E.J. (2013). Ecosystem services of the Southern Ocean: trade-offs in decision-making. *Antarctic Science* 25, 603.

361. Verbitsky, J. (2018). Ecosystem services and Antarctica: the time has come? *Ecosystem Services* 29, 381–394.

362. Deininger, M., Koellner, T., Brey, T., and Teschke, K. (2016). Towards mapping and assessing Antarctic marine ecosystem services – The Weddell Sea case study. *Ecosystem Services* 22, 174–192.

363. Cerdà-Cuéllar, M., Moré, E., Ayats, T., Aguilera, M., Muñoz-González, S., Antilles, N., Ryan, P.G., and González-Solís, J. (2019). Do humans spread zoonotic enteric bacteria in Antarctica? *Science of The Total Environment* 654, 190–196.

364. Kennicutt, M.C., Kim, Y.D., Rogan-Finnemore, M., Anandakrishnan, S., Chown, S.L., Colwell, S., Cowan, D., Escutia, C., Frenot, Y., Hall, J., et al. (2016). Delivering 21stcentury Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. *Antarctic Science* 28, 407-423.

365. Cincinelli, A., Scopetani, C., Chelazzi, D., Lombardini, E., Martellini, T., Katsoyiannis, A., Fossi, M.C., and Corsolini, S. (2017). Microplastic in the surface waters of the Ross Sea (Antarctica): Occurrence, distribution and characterization by FTIR. *Chemosphere* 175, 391-400.
366. Gutt, J., Isla, E., Bertler, A.N., Bodeker, G.E., Bracegirdle, T.J., Cavanagh, R.D., Comiso, J.C., Convey, P., Cummings, V., De Conto, R., et al. (2018). Cross-disciplinarity in the advance of Antarctic ecosystem research. Marine Genomics 37, 1-17.

367. McCarthy, A.H., Peck, L.S., Hughes, K.A., and Aldridge, D.C. (2019). Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions. Global Change Biology 25, 2221-2241.

368. Xavier, J.C., Brandt, A., Ropert-Coudert, Y., Badhe, R., Gutt, J., Havermans, C., Jones, C., Costa, E.S., Lochte, K., Schloss, I.R., et al. (2016). Future Challenges in Southern Ocean Ecology Research. Frontiers in Marine Science 3.

369. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2015). A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

370. Thwaites: The Future of Thwaites Glacier and its Contribution to Sea-level Rise, NSF, https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=505320

371. Ansorge, I.J., Skelton, P., Bekker, A., De Bruyn, N., Butterworth, D., Cilliers, P., Cooper, J., Cowan, D., Dorrington, R., Fawcett, S., et al. (2017). Exploring South Africa's southern frontier: A 20-year vision for polar research through the South African National Antarctic Programme. South African Journal of Science 113, 1-7.

372. Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), https://www.ats.aq/e/ats.htm

373. Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs), https://www.ats.aq/devAS/ats_meetings.aspx?lang=e

374. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), https://www.scar.org/

375. The Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP), https://www.ats.aq/e/cep.htm

376. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Scientific Committee (SC-CCAMLR), https://www.ccamlr.org/en/science/scientific-committee

377. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), https://www.ccamlr.org/en/organisation/camlr-convention

378. Antarctic Science Horizon Scan, https://www.scar.org/about-us/horizon-scan/overview/

379. SCAR Structural Review, https://scar.org/scar-library/reports-and-bulletins/scar-bulletins/2634-scar-bulletin-192/file/

380. SCAR Strategic Plan 2017-2022, https://www.scar.org/about-us/futureplans/strategic-plan/

381. SCAR Past Antarctic Ice Sheets, https://www.scar.org/science/pais/pais/

382. SCAR Antarctic Near Shore Terrestrial Observing System, https://www.scar.org/scar-library/search/science-4/physical-sciences/antos/3446-2015-antos-workshop-report/

383. Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP), https://www.comnap.aq/SitePages/Home.aspx

384. COMNAP Antarctic Roadmap Challenges Project, https://www.comnap.aq/Projects/SitePages/ARC.aspx

385. Antarctic Science Horizon Scan media activities, https://www.scar.org/about-us/horizon-scan/results/

386. Tinker Foundation, https://www.tinker.org/

387. Antarctic Treaty Parties (2019), https://www.ats.aq/devAS/ats_parties.aspx?lang=e

388. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources membership, https://www.ccamlr.org/en/organisation/membership

389. Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, https://iwc.int/home

390. Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals, https://www.ats.aq/e/ats_related.htm
391. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) membership (2019),
https://www.scar.org/about-us/members/detailed-information/

392. Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP) membership (2019),
https://www.comnap.aq/Members/SitePages/Home.aspx

393. Antarctic Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC), https://www.asoc.org/

394. International Association of Antarctic Tour Operators (IAATO), https://iaato.org/home