CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES: Understanding the Labyrinth of
Unemployment in Mali (1991-2022)

Etienne Fakaba SISSOKO

University of Social Sciences and Management of Bamako (USSGB)
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Bamako (FSEG)
Research and Analysis Center for Politics, Economics, and Social Sciences (CRAPES)
etienne@crapes.net

Khalid DEMBELE

Researcher-Teacher
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management (FSEG)
University of Social Sciences and Management (USSGB)
khalid.dembele@yahoo.fr

Abdoulaye MAIGA

Researcher-Teacher,
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management (FSEG),
University of Social Sciences and Management of Bamako (USSGB),
University Center for Economic and Social Research (CURES), Mali
maigis@yahoo.fr

Tahirou TANGARA

Researcher-Teacher
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management (FSEG)
University of Social Sciences and Management (USSGB)
tangaratahirou@gmail.com

**Date of submission:** January 18, 2024

**Date of acceptance:**

**To cite this article:** SISSOKO.E.F., et al. (2024) CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES: Understanding the Labyrinth of Unemployment in Mali. *The International Journal of Business Management and Technology*. Vol. No. pp:
## ABSTRACT

In Mali, facing a major socio-economic challenge characterized by an official unemployment rate of 8% and a young population (67% under 24 years, UNICEF, 2021), this study analyzes the causes and consequences of unemployment between 1991 and 2022. Despite appreciable economic growth before 2020 (average annual growth of 5%, World Bank, 2020), the country struggles to generate significant employment, especially for the youth and women. The aim of this paper is to deeply examine the impacts of demographic, educational, and economic variables on the job market. Adopting an econometric methodology, the study utilizes analyses of stationarity, cointegration, and an error correction model (ECM). The results indicate that growth alone is insufficient to significantly reduce unemployment, highlighting the need for education aligned with market needs and political stability to stimulate employment. In conclusion, the study recommends targeted reforms to improve employability and promote inclusive economic growth, adapted to the specific realities of Mali.

**Keywords:** Unemployment; Economic Growth; Education and Employability; Political Stability; Mali

## RESUME

Dans un Mali confronté à un défi socio-économique majeur, caractérisé par un taux de chômage officiel de 8% et une population jeune (67% de moins de 24 ans, UNICEF, 2021), cette étude analyse les causes et les conséquences du chômage entre 1991 et 2022. En dépit d'une croissance économique appréciable avant 2020 (5% en moyenne annuelle, Banque Mondiale, 2020), le pays peine à générer un emploi significatif, surtout pour les jeunes et les femmes. L'objectif de cet article est d'examiner en profondeur les impacts des variables démographiques, éducatives et économiques sur le marché du travail. Adoptant une méthodologie économétrique, l'étude utilise des analyses de stationnarité, de cointégration et un modèle de correction d'erreur (ECM). Les résultats indiquent que la croissance seule ne suffit pas à réduire le chômage de manière significative, soulignant la nécessité d'une éducation alignée sur les besoins du marché et de la stabilité politique pour stimuler l'emploi. En conclusion, l'étude recommande des réformes ciblées pour améliorer l'employabilité et favoriser une croissance économique inclusive, adaptée aux réalités spécifiques du Mali.

**Mots clés :** Chômage ; Croissance économique ; Éducation et employabilité ; Stabilité politique ; Mali
**Introduction**

Mali, as a landlocked nation in West Africa, faces a major socio-economic challenge: unemployment, a problem exacerbated by a demographic structure dominated by a young population. About 67% of Malians are under 24 years old (UNICEF, 2021), representing an immense human potential that nonetheless confronts an underdeveloped job market and limited economic opportunities. Despite stable economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of about 5% over the past decade (World Bank, 2020), Mali struggles to generate significant employment, particularly for young people and women. This situation is complicated by an official unemployment rate of 8% which masks a darker reality of underemployment and precariousness, especially in informal sectors (ILO, 2023).

The educational system, with an adult literacy rate of around 35%, one of the lowest globally (UNESCO, 2023), struggles to prepare young Malians for the demands of the job market. This educational gap contributes to a growing mismatch between the skills available and those required by employers. Furthermore, recent political crises and the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated Mali's economic problems, disrupting the dynamics of business creation and job creation (Sissoko, 2023).

<figure><img src="image_1.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 1: Evolution of Unemployment in Mali from 1991 to 2021**</figcaption></figure>

**Source: Authors, 2024**

In response to these challenges, the Malian government has launched various initiatives to stimulate employment, but the results remain limited. These challenges highlight the need for more holistic and integrated approaches to effectively address the unemployment problem in
the country. The aim of this study is to deeply analyze the causes and consequences of unemployment in Mali, considering demographic, educational, and economic aspects. This research aims to explore the different facets of this complex issue and to identify potential strategies for reducing it. Moreover, it aspires to enrich the existing literature by offering a contextualized analysis adapted to the Malian case (Baldwin & Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015).

To study the dynamics of unemployment in Mali, our methodological approach relied on a robust quantitative approach, incorporating analyses of stationarity, cointegration, and the estimation of an Error Correction Model (ECM), in accordance with the established standards of econometric research (Wooldridge, 2010; Greene, 2012). This methodological combination allowed us to capture both the specificities of the time series and the long-term interactions between key variables.

The structure of the paper unfolds in several key stages. After a detailed introduction and presentation of the methodology, the study analyzes the demographic and economic aspects of unemployment, then explores educational and political influences. The implications of the findings are then discussed, highlighting their impact on employment policies and strategies in Mali. In conclusion, the article summarizes the main findings and proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the importance of a thorough understanding of unemployment in the specific contexts of developing economies.

This research, by committing to rigorous and contextual analysis, aspires not only to make a significant academic contribution but also to enlighten policymakers and economic stakeholders on potential pathways to mitigate the major socio-economic challenge of unemployment in Mali. By systematically and detailedly addressing the multiple dimensions of unemployment in this specific African context, it aims to deploy an analytical framework that can serve as a model for similar studies in other regions facing comparable challenges.

# 1. Literature Review

The literature review on unemployment in Mali focuses on exploring the multiple dimensions of this issue in a unique national context, marked by specific socio-economic challenges. However, a thorough critique of sources and better contextualization are necessary to enrich this analysis.

The study by Fox & al. (2016) provides significant insight into youth unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa, a major concern in Mali with its vast informal sector. This research underscores the need to develop policies tailored to the unique challenges of this region.
However, it is crucial to consider the methodology and potential limitations of this study to assess its relevance to the Malian context. Similarly, Ozturk (2008) highlights the fundamental role of education in economic development, a theme all the more significant in Mali where the educational system faces major obstacles. A critical analysis of this source could provide insights into the specificities of the Malian educational system and its influence on employability.

The impact of political instability on unemployment is examined through the works of Bah (2012) and Gérard (1997), who study how political crises directly affect the economy and thus employment. It is important to explore these studies in the current political context of Mali to fully understand their applicability. Likewise, the analysis of demographic trends and their influence on economic growth by Traoré (2005) requires a more in-depth contextualization, particularly considering the current demographic dynamics of Mali.

SMEs, identified by Khatri (2019) as vital for economic growth and job creation, reflect the realities of the Malian private sector described by Sissoko & al. (2023). A critical study of these works would help to better understand the role of SMEs in the Malian economy. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy, and more specifically on developing countries (2022), provides additional context to the economic challenges exacerbated by the pandemic and recent political crises.

Mali-specific research, notably by Bouaré & al. (2019) on the green economy in rural areas and Gérard's (1997) analysis of the marginalization of unemployed graduates, as well as Toure's (2023) study of the impact of the security crisis on employment, provide a crucial perspective on local specifics. These works deserve a critical analysis to assess their applicability and relevance in the contemporary Malian context.

This literature review aims to fill the identified gaps, particularly in terms of a lack of in-depth focus specific to Mali. By offering a detailed and contextualized analysis of economic and social dynamics, this research aspires to enrich the understanding of unemployment in Mali. It addresses the impact of security and political crises, the importance of education and employability, and the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic on the labor market, while integrating a thorough critique of sources for a more nuanced and contextually relevant perspective.

## 2. Theories Utilized
In exploring unemployment in Mali, it is essential to adopt a multidimensional theoretical approach. Firstly, the classical perspective, emanating from the works of Adam Smith and David Ricardo, offers an analysis of unemployment centered on the impact of high wages and external interventions such as laws or union actions (Smith, 1776; Ricardo, 1817). This approach suggests that in the absence of such interventions, the labor market would naturally balance itself. In the Malian context, this hypothesis is particularly relevant, especially in the formal sector, where wage and employment dynamics are often influenced by institutional and regulatory factors, including the establishment of a minimum wage.

In parallel, Keynesian theory, developed by John Maynard Keynes, addresses unemployment from the perspective of insufficient aggregate demand (Keynes, 1936). This perspective is particularly enlightening for Mali, where political instabilities and security crises can reduce overall demand and, consequently, employment, especially during periods of economic recession. This theory underscores the importance of government policies and investments in supporting demand and economic activity.

Structural unemployment theory, on the other hand, focuses on imbalances between the skills of workers and the needs of employers, exacerbated by technological or industrial changes (Friedman, 1968). In Mali, the mismatch of educational skills with labor market requirements is a major issue, particularly among young graduates (Sissoko, 2023). This theory helps understand how gaps in training and education can contribute to structural unemployment.

Malinvaud's macroeconomic unemployment theory offers an even more nuanced analytical framework, distinguishing between Keynesian unemployment, due to insufficient demand, and classical unemployment, related to overly high prices and wages (Malinvaud, 1980). This distinction is essential for analyzing the specific challenges of the Malian labor market, where structural rigidities and economic constraints pose unique challenges. Autune's (1981) revision of this theory further emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies, particularly fiscal and monetary, in regulating the labor market. This perspective is crucial for Mali, where tailored measures can stimulate overall demand and mitigate unemployment.

In the Malian context, it is also relevant to consider the theories of search unemployment (Diamond, Mortensen, and Pissarides, 2010), hysteresis unemployment (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), frictional unemployment (Stigler, 1962), and institutional unemployment (Freeman, 1993). These theories offer insights into the job search process, the impact of economic and political shocks, the frictions and delays of the labor market, and the role of institutions in the dynamics of unemployment.
In summary, this multidimensional theoretical framework allows for an in-depth understanding of the multiple facets of unemployment in Mali, thus providing a solid foundation for analyzing the policies and interventions necessary to effectively address this issue in a specific Malian context.

Based on these theories, the following hypotheses are formulated for the Malian context:

* H1: Political instability and security crises in Mali could reduce overall demand, which would likely increase the unemployment rate, especially among young people (Keynes, 1936).

* H2: Deficiencies in the Malian educational system and the rapid evolution of labor market requirements could contribute to structural unemployment, especially among young graduates (Friedman, 1968).

* H3: Government policies and labor market regulations could significantly influence unemployment levels in the formal sector in Mali (Smith, 1776; Ricardo, 1817).

* H4: Difficulties related to the job search process and the limitations of available information on the labor market could lead to frictional unemployment, particularly among young graduates (Stigler, 1962; Diamond, Mortensen, and Pissarides, 2010).

* H5: Temporary economic and political shocks in Mali could have lasting effects on the unemployment rate, creating a situation of hysteresis in unemployment (Blanchard and Summers, 1986).

* H6: Institutional influences such as unions, minimum wage policies, and labor regulations could play a crucial role in the persistence of unemployment in Mali, particularly in the formal sector (Freeman, 1993).

<caption>**Figure 2: Conceptual Diagram of the Article**</caption>
<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

Source: Authors, 2024
## 3. Methodology

### 3.1. Methodological Approach

To study the dynamics of unemployment in Mali, our methodological approach relied on a robust quantitative approach, integrating analyses of stationarity, cointegration, and the estimation of an Error Correction Model (ECM), in accordance with the established standards of econometric research (Wooldridge, 2010; Greene, 2012). This methodological combination allowed us to capture both the specificities of the time series and the long-term interactions between key variables.

The first step involved examining the stationarity of time series, an essential condition for ensuring the reliability of econometric models. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test (Dickey & Fuller, 1979) to check the stationarity of the unemployment series (CHOMAGE) and economic growth (CROISS). Initial results revealed non-stationarity, but after first differencing, the series became stationary, confirming the validity of our subsequent analyses.

Next, we applied the Bound test (Pesaran et al., 2001) to assess the existence of a long-term relationship between variables. Results demonstrated significant cointegration, indicating that despite short-term fluctuations, the variables tend to evolve together towards a long-term equilibrium. This justified the use of an ECM (Engle & Granger, 1987) to estimate the speed of short-term adjustments following shocks.

The ECM model was specified by incorporating cointegration terms and lagged variables, chosen for their theoretical relevance and potential impact on unemployment. Variables considered included the unemployment rate, economic growth, investments (measured by gross fixed capital formation - FBCF), and the Gross Enrollment Ratio in Secondary Education (TBSS). These elements were introduced in lagged form to capture temporal dynamics influencing the labor market (Box & Jenkins, 1976).

The parameters of the ECM model were estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares method, with particular attention paid to the significance of the coefficients. The model diagnostic revealed a high adjusted R-squared and appropriate values for Akaike and Schwarz information criteria, suggesting the model's robustness. However, the Durbin-Watson test (Durbin & Watson, 1951) indicated the possibility of autocorrelation of residuals, highlighting the need for cautious interpretation of the results and potential improvements to the model.

### 3.2. Models
<table><caption>Table 1: Summary of Models Used and Justifications</caption><thead><tr><td>Model</td><td>Variables</td><td>Justification for Use</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF)</td><td>Y<sub>t</sub>Y<sub>t</sub>, ΔY<sub>t</sub>, ΔY<sub>t</sub>, Y<sub>t-1</sub>Y<sub>t-1</sub>, ΔY<sub>t-i</sub>, ΔY<sub>t-i</sub></td><td>To check the stationarity of time series, essential before performing cointegration and regression analyses on temporal data. (Dickey & Fuller, 1979)</td></tr><tr><td>Bound Test</td><td>Y<sub>t</sub>Y<sub>t</sub>, X<sub>t</sub>, X<sub>t</sub>, ΔY<sub>t</sub>, ΔY<sub>t</sub>, ΔX<sub>t</sub>, ΔX<sub>t</sub></td><td>To determine the presence of a long-term relationship between variables integrated of order 1 and justify the use of an ECM model. (Pesaran et al., 2001)</td></tr><tr><td>Error Correction Model (ECM)</td><td>ΔY<sub>t</sub>, ΔY<sub>t</sub>, ΔX<sub>t</sub>, ΔX<sub>t</sub>, ε<sub>t-1</sub>, ε<sub>t-1</sub></td><td>To analyze short-term adjustments towards a long-term equilibrium relationship after short-term shocks, in the presence of cointegration. (Engle & Granger, 1987)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Authors, 2024

* $Y_tY_t$ represents the dependent variable, in this case, the unemployment rate.

* $X_tX_t$ represents the independent variables, including economic growth (CROISS), investments (FBCF), and human capital, measured here by the Gross Enrollment Ratio in Secondary Education (TBSS).

* $\Delta\Delta$ represents the first differencing operator, used to transform non-stationary series into stationary ones.

* $\varepsilon_{t-1}, \varepsilon_{t-1}$ is the error correction term arising from the long-term cointegration relationship.

The results of the ECM highlighted the complex and nuanced impact of economic and social policies on unemployment in Mali. The delayed effect of economic growth on unemployment underscores the need for sustained policies over time to generate lasting effects on the labor
market. Investments appear to play a crucial role in the short term, indicating that strategies aimed at stimulating investments could be effective in rapidly reducing unemployment. On the other hand, the lack of statistical significance of the TBSS variable raises questions about the adequacy of traditional indicators to capture the nuances of the Malian labor market and perhaps indicates the need for more profound structural reforms.

In this context, our study, while relying on rigorous methodology, recognizes the need to continue research and deepen the analysis of variables that might influence unemployment in Mali. This methodological approach, combining proven techniques and a cautious interpretation of results, has provided significant insights into the complex dynamics of unemployment in Mali and offers a solid foundation for the development of targeted economic and social policies.

It is therefore clear that the results of our econometric analysis contribute to a richer and more accurate understanding of the factors influencing unemployment in Mali. These findings offer important perspectives for policymakers in designing strategies tailored to combat unemployment, particularly among youth and marginalized groups, and underscore the importance of proactive governance and a thorough understanding of unemployment dynamics in the specific contexts of developing economies.

## 4. Results

The study on the dynamics of unemployment in Mali, supported by rigorous econometric analysis, reveals complex and interdependent implications of economic, educational, and political factors. Our results highlight that economic growth, while necessary, is not sufficient in itself to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. Indeed, the coefficient of -0.004966 for the CROISS variable (p = 0.0000) indicates a delayed impact of growth on unemployment, echoing Okun's theory (1962).

<table><caption>**Table 2: Long-term Estimation Results**</caption><caption>Levels Equation<br>Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend</caption><thead><tr><th>Variable</th><th>Coefficient</th><th>Std. Error</th><th>t-Statistic</th><th>Prob.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>CROISS</td><td>-0.004966</td><td>0.000725</td><td>-6.849203</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>FBCF</td><td>-0.000476</td><td>0.000914</td><td>-0.521029</td><td>0.6105</td></tr><tr><td>TBSS</td><td>0.002767</td><td>0.000112</td><td>24.64431</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>C</td><td>1.260501</td><td>0.016813</td><td>74.97284</td><td>0.0000</td></tr></tbody></table>

$$EC = \text{CHOMAGE} - (-0.0050 * \text{CROISS} - 0.0005 * \text{FBCF} + 0.0028 * \text{TBSS} + 1.2605)$$
Source: Stata 2016

Furthermore, the non-significance of the FBCF variable (coefficient -0.000476, p = 0.6105) in our model suggests that current investments may not be adequately directed towards employment-creating sectors, necessitating a strategic reorientation. Surprisingly, the TBSS variable, with a positive coefficient of 0.002767 (p = 0.0000), underscores the inadequacy of the current educational system to meet the needs of the labor market, calling for educational reforms focused on skills and vocational training.

<table><caption>Table 3: Short-term Estimation</caption><caption>ECM Regression<br>Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend</caption><thead><tr><th>Variable</th><th>Coefficient</th><th>Std. Error</th><th>t-Statistic</th><th>Prob.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>D(CHOMAGE(-1))</td><td>-16.14800</td><td>0.627116</td><td>-25.74960</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>D(CHOMAGE(-2))</td><td>-16.86685</td><td>0.666191</td><td>-25.31835</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>D(CROISS)</td><td>-0.005430</td><td>0.003844</td><td>-1.412491</td><td>0.1796</td></tr><tr><td>D(CROISS(-1))</td><td>-0.089587</td><td>0.005244</td><td>-17.08383</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>D(CROISS(-2))</td><td>-0.095444</td><td>0.004477</td><td>-21.32034</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>D(FBCF)</td><td>-0.016176</td><td>0.006089</td><td>-2.656479</td><td>0.0188</td></tr><tr><td>D(FBCF(-1))</td><td>-0.022971</td><td>0.006236</td><td>-3.683795</td><td>0.0025</td></tr><tr><td>D(FBCF(-2))</td><td>-0.017954</td><td>0.005410</td><td>-3.318401</td><td>0.0051</td></tr><tr><td>D(TBSS)</td><td>0.010444</td><td>0.008033</td><td>1.300023</td><td>0.2146</td></tr><tr><td>D(TBSS(-1))</td><td>0.023255</td><td>0.007761</td><td>2.996374</td><td>0.0096</td></tr><tr><td>CointEq(-1)*</td><td>13.57263</td><td>0.537630</td><td>25.24530</td><td>0.0000</td></tr><tr><td>R-squared</td><td>0.985416</td><td>Mean dependent var</td><td>0.051690</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Adjusted R-squared</td><td>0.977314</td><td>S.D. dependent var</td><td>0.401434</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>S.E. of regression</td><td>0.060464</td><td>Akaike info criterion</td><td>-2.491853</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Sum squared resid</td><td>0.065805</td><td>Schwarz criterion</td><td>-1.973223</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Log likelihood</td><td>47.13187</td><td>Hannan-Quinn criter.</td><td>-2.329425</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Durbin-Watson stat</td><td>1.093136</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Stata 2016

The analysis of the cointegration error (EC), with a coefficient of 13.57263 for CointEq(-1) (p = 0.0000), indicates a progressive correction of deviations from the long-term equilibrium relationship between unemployment and economic variables. This observation suggests a trend towards an equilibrium where economic growth, investments, and education have a substantial impact on the labor market in Mali.

<footnote>* p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.</footnote>
These results highlight the need for an integrated approach to combat unemployment, one that goes beyond economic growth and also includes policies that promote job creation in key sectors, reform of education to align skills with market needs, and stabilization of the political environment to encourage investments.

In conclusion, our study provides a richer and more precise understanding of the dynamics of unemployment in Mali, emphasizing the persistent challenges related to the implementation and effectiveness of employment policies. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in designing strategies tailored to combat unemployment, particularly among youth and marginalized groups, while considering the importance of economic growth, targeted investments, relevant education, and political stability.

# 5. Discussions and Implications of Results

## 5.1. Discussions

The discussion of our study's results on unemployment in Mali sheds light on important implications for public policy and socio-economic development. The analysis reveals that, while economic growth is necessary, it is not sufficient in itself to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, particularly among the young and less educated. This observation aligns with Okun's theory (1962), but with a crucial nuance: economic growth has a positive but delayed impact on reducing unemployment, indicated by a coefficient of -0.004966 for CROISS (p = 0.0000).

The results highlight the need to target investments toward employment-creating sectors and to reform the educational system to align it with labor market needs. However, investment in fixed capital, represented by the FBCF variable with a non-significant coefficient of -0.000476 (p = 0.6105), does not robustly predict long-term unemployment, underscoring the need to redirect investments toward more effective initiatives. It is important to note that this reflects an inefficient distribution of investments, suggesting that Mali could benefit from a strategic reorientation of investments toward more productive and job-creating sectors, particularly those that are labor-intensive. This conclusion confirms the findings of Sissoko & al. (2023), who argue that the predominance of operating and security expenses in the Malian budget from 2011 to 2023 has negatively impacted sectors such as education, health, or unemployment.

The enrollment rate, represented by TBSS, shows a counterintuitive effect on unemployment with a coefficient of 0.002767 (p = 0.0000), indicating that increasing schooling without
improving the quality of education does not contribute to reducing unemployment. Indeed, the positive coefficient of the TBSS variable (0.002767, p = 0.0000) indicates an increase in unemployment despite a rise in schooling. This highlights a mismatch between taught skills and market needs, underscoring the urgency of reforming the educational system to better align education with professional requirements.

The country's tense political situation, with three coups d'état during the period, and Mali's volatile security crisis, have a direct impact on the economy and labor market. It is now established that political stabilization is essential for attracting investments and fostering economic growth. Recent political crises, including tensions with the international community, and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated economic difficulties, highlighting the importance of stable governance for job creation (Sissoko & Dembélé, 2023).

Furthermore, the implications of unemployment extend beyond economic aspects and also affect psychosocial domains. Job loss can lead to economic and psychological distress, contributing to isolation and marginalization, particularly among young people. Strengthening the private sector is crucial for job creation. Structural reforms must promote the alignment of training with market needs and stimulate private investment. This is particularly relevant in contexts where the informal sector dominates.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3: Comparative Evolution of Study Variables</figcaption></figure>

Source: Authors, 2024

In conclusion, our results demonstrate the need for a multisectoral approach to combat unemployment in Mali, considering economic, educational, and social dimensions. It is
crucial to adopt policies that promote both economic growth and job creation, while investing
in education and vocational training.

The socio-economic context of Mali, characterized by a predominantly young population (67% under 24 years old according to UNICEF, 2021) and an official unemployment rate of 8% that masks underemployment and precariousness (ILO, 2020), exacerbates these challenges. The economic growth of 5% (World Bank, 2020) has not sufficiently generated jobs, especially for young people and women. The educational system, with only 35% adult literacy (UNESCO, 2019), and recent political and health crises (Diallo & Traoré, 2021) have also negatively impacted the job market.

To overcome these challenges, it is essential to promote the private sector and invest in human capital, aligning training with market needs and stimulating private investment for sustainable growth (World Bank, 2020). Policies must therefore focus on inclusive economic development, supported by appropriate education and vocational training, to ensure effective and sustainable reduction of unemployment in Mali.

**5.2. Political and Managerial Implications**

In Mali's complex socio-economic context, the political and managerial implications arising from the analysis of employment and unemployment are of paramount importance. Economic policies and human resource management must be oriented to address the challenges highlighted by unemployment dynamics, particularly among youth, who form the majority of the population (UNICEF, 2021). Economic growth, although necessary, has not proven sufficiently inclusive to solve the employment problem (World Bank, 2020), and political interventions must therefore be carefully crafted to foster growth that is both robust and job-generating.

**5.3. Economic Policies**

The political implications arising from the analysis of unemployment in Mali must take into account the need for economic growth that benefits all strata of the population. To achieve this, investments must be strategically directed towards labor-intensive sectors, while promoting innovation and competitiveness (Sissoko, 2023). Fiscal and monetary policies should be designed to stimulate investments in these areas, taking into account the volatility of the current economic environment (Keynes, 1936).

It is also crucial to strengthen investment policies in education and vocational training to mitigate structural unemployment caused by the disparity between available skills and market
needs (Friedman, 1968). This involves rethinking educational and vocational training programs so that they are in line with the demands of the labor market and the strategic directions of Mali's economic development.

## 5.4. Managerial Implications

At the managerial level, Malian businesses should be encouraged to adopt human resource management practices that value human capital and promote the employment of young people. This includes developing partnerships with educational institutions to facilitate the transition of young people from academia to the labor market, by setting up internships, work-study programs, and mentoring programs (Box & Jenkins, 1976).

Managers should also be trained to recognize and exploit the potential of young workers, investing in their continuous development and creating work environments that foster innovation and entrepreneurship. This can be supported by government policies that offer tax incentives or subsidies to companies that invest in the development of young talent (Wooldridge, 2010).

## 5.5 Implications for Employment Policies

The study's results suggest that employment policies need to be multidimensional, addressing both macroeconomic issues and targeted interventions for vulnerable groups. For example, policies aimed at stabilizing the political and security environment are essential for building investor confidence and promoting employment (United Nations Security Council, 2021).

Similarly, unemployment reduction programs must be adapted to local realities and take into account regional specificities in terms of labor needs and employment opportunities. This requires close collaboration between governments, businesses, unions, and civil society organizations to ensure that interventions are well-targeted and effective.

In summary, the political and managerial implications arising from this study call for coordinated and strategic action to address the employment challenges in Mali. Economic growth must be accompanied by policies and practices that ensure benefits are widely distributed, and that young people, in particular, have access to quality employment opportunities. Businesses, for their part, need to take proactive measures to develop the potential of young workers and integrate training and education into their growth strategy. This will require strong political will and commitment to economic and social policies that place humans at the center of development (World Bank, 2020; UNICEF, 2021).
## 5.6 Study Limitations

The study on unemployment in Mali, despite its analytical rigor, is subject to limitations related to the quality and temporal scope of the data, the adopted methodology, and the theoretical frameworks used. Data reliability issues and rapid political and security changes in Mali (United Nations Security Council, 2021) call for the use of more current data in future research. Methodologically, issues such as autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of residuals (Durbin & Watson, 1951) and the assumed linearity in the ECM model could limit the interpretation of the results. These aspects suggest the need to explore more advanced and nonlinear econometric models.

Theoretically, the study may not fully integrate factors such as the informal economy and socio-cultural traditions (Friedman, 1968; Stigler, 1962), and simplified econometric models may not capture the complex interactions and rapid structural changes affecting the labor market (Blanchard and Summers, 1986). The results, specific to the Malian context (Baldwin & Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015), are not necessarily generalizable to other contexts without adaptations.

These limitations offer directions for future research, including the use of panel data, the application of nonlinear econometric models, and conducting qualitative studies to enrich the understanding of unemployment (Wooldridge, 2010; Kothari, 2004). In conclusion, this study provides a solid foundation for understanding unemployment in Mali, but its scope should be interpreted with caution, guiding future research to deepen and refine this understanding in complex developing contexts.

## Conclusion

The conclusion of our study on unemployment in Mali, while providing significant insights, highlights the need for continued research to validate or reject the initial hypotheses. Our findings indicate that, although economic growth is essential, it does not in itself guarantee a significant reduction in unemployment, particularly among young people and the less educated (World Bank, 2020; ILO, 2020). This observation partially validates hypothesis H1, underscoring that political instability and security crises can reduce overall demand, exacerbating unemployment (Keynes, 1936).

Regarding H2, the results suggest that deficiencies in the Malian educational system contribute to structural unemployment, particularly among young graduates, corroborating Friedman's theory (1968). The non-significance of the Gross Enrollment Rate in the
regression model reinforces this assertion, highlighting a mismatch between education and labor market requirements (Box & Jenkins, 1976).

Hypothesis H3, related to the impact of government policies and labor market regulations on unemployment, remains partially verified. Although the study did not directly measure this impact, political instability and lack of investment highlight the indirect influence of these factors on the labor market (Smith, 1976; Ricardo, 1917).

Hypothesis H4 regarding frictional unemployment, mainly among young graduates, is supported by the difficulty in aligning acquired skills with market needs, reflecting the limitations of available information on the labor market (Stigler, 1962; Diamond, Mortensen, and Pissarides, 2010).

H5, which posits that temporary economic and political shocks could have lasting effects on the unemployment rate, is partially confirmed. The analysis revealed that although the labor market responds to economic shocks, factors such as political instability hinder recovery and economic growth, suggesting a form of unemployment hysteresis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986).

Finally, H6, concerning institutional influences such as unions and minimum wage policies, was not directly examined in this study, leaving this hypothesis open for future research.

To deepen these findings, future research should focus on collecting more robust and current data, evaluating the effectiveness of specific economic policies, integrating qualitative analyses, applying more advanced econometric models, and exploring the links between unemployment, political instability, and emigration (Massey et al., 1993; Greene, 2012; Wooldridge, 2010; Denzin & Lincoln, 2000; Schneider, 2002).

In conclusion, although our study has provided valuable insights into the dynamics of unemployment in Mali, it also underscores the extent of research needed to comprehensively address this complex issue. The political and managerial implications of these findings are profound, calling for coordinated, evidence-based action to develop strategies to combat unemployment, a major challenge for the economic and social development of Mali.
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# Annexes

<table><caption>## Tableau 1 : Bound test ou test de Cointegration</caption><caption>F-Bounds Test<br>Null Hypothesis: No levels relationship</caption><thead><tr><th>Test Statistic</th><th>Value</th><th>Signif.</th><th>I(0)</th><th>I(1)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td colspan="2" style="text-align: center;">Asymptotic:<br>n=1000</td></tr><tr><td>F-statistic</td><td>99.13946</td><td>10%</td><td>2.37</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>k</td><td>3</td><td>5%</td><td>2.79</td><td>3.67</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>2.5%</td><td>3.15</td><td>4.08</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>1%</td><td>3.65</td><td>4.66</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source :

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1 : Détermination du retard optimal</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2 : Test CUSUM</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3 : Test CUSUM CARRE</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>