# Selected medical, social and ecological aspects of overpopulation

Sirion Robertson, Sergei Jargin

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Sirion Robertson, Sergei Jargin. Selected medical, social and ecological aspects of overpopulation. 2024. hal-04853904

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# Selected medical, social and ecological aspects of overpopulation

Sirion Robertson, Sergei Jargin

¹ Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa

² Peoples' Friendship University of Russia

## Abstract

Environmental degradation is one of the most threatening global challenges currently faced by humankind. Despite generally decreasing birth rates, the global population continues increasing in absolute terms, which is an unsustainable trajectory. Efficient solutions would require an acceptance of new ethical principles, in particular, that no population group may obtain advantages because of a faster growth. In countries with sufficient food and water resources, the birth rate may be higher than in regions where people are consuming desalinated water and foodstuff acquired through international aid. In the past, overpopulation has been reduced by wars, epidemics and starvation. Today, the possibility exists of applying humane, scientifically based methods, consciously choosing between birth rate restriction and mortality rise. Unlike preventable shortening of life expectancy, birth control is ethically neutral. International tensions are among reasons to boost childbearing. In conditions of durable peace and mutual trust, large projects could be introduced to improve the quality of life: irrigation systems, nuclear and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels. Such projects would create many jobs and solve other impending problems.

**Key words:** demography, population, migrations, environment, nuclear energy

"Humanity is but a blip on the time-scale of life on Earth. But that blip is all that we have, and our present global course guarantees its extinction" [1]. Global overpopulation leads to poverty, overcrowding and pollution of air and water. Environmental degradation is one of the most threatening global challenges faced by humanity [2]. Despite generally decreasing birth rates, the global population continues growing; there is no sign of a decrease sufficient to achieve sustainable numbers. Humanity is expected to use ≥200% of the global biocapacity (croplands, forests) by 2050, which is an unsustainable development. Environmental degradation is proportional to the number of humans [3]. Efficient solutions would require a revision of some stereotypes and an application of new principles, namely that no population group on a national or international scale may achieve advantages through faster growth, even if such caveat flew in the face of democracy.

In view of the global overpopulation, large families and fertile population groups should live in more crowded conditions. Acceptance of this principle could provide a basis for international understanding and trust. Without procreative competition, different peoples would be more likely to
live in peace. During the last century, populations in less industrialized countries grew faster than those in more developed ones [4]. The forthcoming industrialization of regions formerly regarded as developing is important due to their less efficient environmental conservation and the vast scale of the process, proportional to the sizes of the populations involved.

In the past, overpopulation was offset by homicide, epidemics and starvation. Today, there is probably the last chance to apply humane methods, consciously choosing between birth rate restriction and rising mortality. It is widely believed that the answer to existing problems is a reduction in human numbers. Without a serious international attempt to bring the world population back to sustainability, Earth will become increasingly depleted of biological resources [1]. Sterilization is the most reliable method of birth control; it was applied in India in the 1970s, but later these measures have been rolled back. India is the most populous country in the world today. China had the largest population for many decades, with a fertility rate as high as 6.0 before 1970. This rate had decreased to 1.5-1.7 by the late 1990s. The one child policy was replaced by two child from 2015. Additional pro-natalist measures have been introduced in 2021 [5]. South Asia is amongst the regions with the highest population densities [2]. Considerable overpopulation is observed in Africa. Uganda is projected to triple by 2050 to more than 100 million inhabitants, which will be accompanied by deforestation and soil erosion [6]. Nigeria's current population of ~233 million is expected to grow. The tenfold increase in Ethiopia during the last century went along with deforestation and soil erosion [7]. In 2020, up to 264.2 million people (24.1% of the population) in sub-Saharan Africa were undernourished. With the population likely to grow in the near future, these statistics have the potential to increase [8]. As for more developed countries, their populations continue to grow thanks to immigration. South Africa is overpopulated, in need of water desalination, and still receiving immigrants.

Receiving countries decide whom they take and whom not, although in many cases the aliens enter and remain illegally. In countries with relatively stable regimes, the surgical sterilization might be considered as a precondition for work permit and/or permanent residence. Male sterilization (vasectomy) is a simple and harmless procedure. Caesarean section is an occasion to provide permanent contraception (tubal ligation) in females without additional trauma [9]. Increased use of cesarean tubal ligation would be especially favorable for overpopulated regions [10]. Cesarean section on maternal request should be available in the absence of contraindications for attempting vaginal delivery. Admittedly, sterilization can be seen as a violation of the bodily integrity. The same, however, can be said of sexual and reproductive coercion committed for migration/accommodation purposes or to spread a certain genotype. High fertility is sometimes used for geopolitical advance and should be counteracted as such. It can be argued that sterilization
does not prevent sexually transmitted diseases; however, these diseases may be regarded as self-inflicted in consequence of negligent or immoral behavior, thus being in a sense a private matter. When children appear, it ceases to be a private matter, because the number of children in a family is of public concern today, as is the size and density of the population. Bringing a new individual into the world leaves fewer resources for those who already need them, and in many cases have them in suboptimal amounts [11].

In the former Soviet Union (SU), the fertility rate varied from 3.8 in Tajikistan to 1.2 in Ukraine and 1.5 in the Russian Federation (RF), the latter including Caucasus and other regions with above-average fertility [12]. Within RF, the maximal population increase has been recorded in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Tuva; while it is decreasing most rapidly in Tver, Tula, Pskov, Leningrad and Novgorod provinces [13]. The quantity increase in Russian citizens occurred predominantly thanks to the North Caucasus [14]. The high socio-cultural value of multi-child families in the Caucasus was pointed out. Nonetheless, government members continue talking about boosting fertility also in the Caucasus [15]. In November 2022, Vladimir Putin awarded the Soviet-era medal for “mother heroines” to the wife of Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechen Republic. According to the media, Kadyrov has 2 wives and 12 children at least.

Emigration of ethnic Russians from the Caucasus and Central Asia started several decades ago, having increased after the dissolution of SU. During the 1990s, the most intense emigration of Russian-speaking people occurred from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The same pertained more or less to other ex-Soviet republics except for Belarus [14]. At the same time, indigenous people from Asian republics of the former SU have been migrating to ethnically Russian territories. Migration distances extend from the Caucasus and Middle Asia to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Siberia, Königsberg/Kaliningrad and the Far East. The highest emigration rate has been from North Ossetia-Alania [16]. The Armenian minority is growing on the Caucasian Riviera (Black Sea shore), where they have participated in privatization and construction of houses. In Stavropol, Krasnodar and Rostov provinces, percentages of indigenous Caucasians are growing. Motives for their migration include shortage of land and overcrowding in their native areas [17]. At the same time, the North Caucasus receives considerable federal funding [18, 19].

In the Far East and Siberia the population growth has been maximal in Buryatia and Yakutia due to higher birth rates of the indigenous peoples [20]. In Siberia, there are many homeless citizens, referred to as “Beach”, most of them of Slavic origin. This word is said to be derived from English (hence the spelling) and previously meant a sailor unable to find employment because of drunkenness or other circumstances. During the anti-alcohol campaign (1985-1989), many of them
consumed inexpensive eau-de-colognes and industrial liquids e.g. window-cleaner [21].

Considering the extent of window cleaner sales in certain areas, it was tolerated by the authorities.

Since the 1990s, the immigration to Siberia and Far East went on from China, Korea, Vietnam and Central Asia, compensating for departures of ethnic Russians. At the same time, the Far East is losing people both to other regions of RF and to foreign countries [22]. As of 2020, the maximal increment of immigration to the Far East was from China, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while the maximal foreign emigration was to Ukraine and Moldova. The highest percentage of overstay (lacking a valid residence permit) was noticed among Azerbaijanis [23]. Since the early 1990, the number of Chinese in Russia has increased ~20 times [24]. Problems related to the demographic growth are expected to increase [25]. There is an opinion that, over the long term, Russia will have to compete more strongly against Asia than against Europe. This perspective has been called the geopolitical destiny [26].

For prevention of conflicts, minorities should not grow faster than the titular ethnic group of a country. This is understood in many Jewish families. However, in the orthodox milieu their birth rate remains relatively high. Migration to the populated territory of Palestine with a shortage of water and energy resources occurred, resulting in increased competition for the lebensraum. Such arguments as "historical patrimony" [27] are not necessarily acceptable to other peoples. Both sides of the Middle East conflict have applied terrorism [28]. State violence is generally more destructive than that carried out by non-state actors [29]. In the 1860s, the number of Jews in Palestine was approximately 14,000 or 4% of the total population of 350,000 [28]. From 1948 to 2002 the population of Israel increased from 806,000 to 6.3 million, or 9.8 million if Palestine territories are included [30]. Combined with immigration, the populace of the arid land, largely dependent on foreign aid and water desalination, is likely to reach 16 million by mid-century. Despite existing beliefs, the fertility rate of Israeli and Palestinian women is approximately equal (3.1): higher than in Iran (1.8), Tunisia (2.0) and Saudi Arabia (2.1); being the highest in developed parts of the world [31]. In light of the Ukraine conflict, the double standards should be stressed: no sanctions were imposed against Israel for comparable military actions. On the contrary, financial and technical aid has been provided. Apparently, certain spheres on both sides of the Middle East conflict cooperated in receiving foreign aid: some get it from the West, others from oil-producing countries. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II [32, 33]. Besides, both Israel and the Palestinian territories receive financial help from Germany. In 2003, about two-thirds of the Palestinian economy was dependent on foreign aid [34]. The Middle East imports more than half of its consumed food. The land and water constraints will continue to tighten [35]. Agriculture in conditions of insufficient water supply is economically and ecologically unfavorable as fossil
fuels are burnt for desalination. Israel is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, with agriculture accounting for over half of water consumption [36]; it is expected that the gap between water supply and demand will widen [34].

The energy for desalination could be produced by nuclear power plants (NPPs), but durable peace is needed because NPPs are potential targets. There are no alternatives to nuclear energy today [37]. In the long run, non-renewable fossil fuels will become more expensive, facilitating energy-based blackmailing [26], leading to overpopulation in fossil fuel-producing regions and poverty elsewhere. NPPs have come back onto the agenda due to concerns about increasing energy demand and climate change. Well-run NPPs pose less risk than fossil fuel power stations. Health burdens are maximal for power plants based on coal and oil, smaller with natural gas and much lower for the NPPs. The same ranking applies also to greenhouse gas emissions and thus probably to climate change. It is to be hoped that nuclear fission will be replaced in the future by fusion, which is intrinsically safer. Fusion should offer a source of safe, clean power generation with a plentiful supply of raw materials [38-40]. The worldwide use of nuclear energy must be managed by a powerful international executive based in most developed parts of the world. Durable peace and international cooperation are needed for this and other large-scale projects, but increasing population densities lead to complexity and reduced stability. Notwithstanding the prospects of cheaper and cleaner energy, there may be no alternative to a major fall in regional and global populations.

Social progress is assumed to go along with improvements of morals, but migrations confound this process. Fictive, temporary marriages and reproductive coercion (RC) are used to spread certain genotypes and/or to cement marriages contracted to obtain a residence permit or accommodation [41]. This is a probable cause of increased birthrates immediately after immigration [42]. RC can involve physical, sexual, financial or psychological abuse [43]. Reportedly, about 70% of sexual violence cases in Moscow are committed by immigrants from Central Asia; some other ethnic groups are also active in this field. Of note, individuals coming from the North Caucasus are not counted as immigrants because they are Russian citizens. About 75% of rapes in Moscow province have been perpetrated by migrants [44]. According to a monograph published in 2012, one out of seven murders and almost 50% of rapes in Moscow were committed by foreign citizens. At that, many crimes remain unreported or unsolved, especially those committed by migrants [45]. Among foreign citizens staying in the Russian Far East, crime was most frequently committed by Chinese (55%) and Uzbeks (23%); while there was a growth tendency. The criminality in this milieu was found to be proportional to the share of illegal immigrants [46]. The criminal activity of migrants was estimated to be 4 times higher than the average for RF [47]. Analogous data are difficult to find
in the recent literature; the topic seems to be avoided these days. Considering the high social
significance, it may be a good idea to consider the migrant status as an aggravating circumstance in
criminal proceedings.

Violence against women and maltreatment of children is sometimes tolerated by the state [48]. In 2017 an amendment was signed into law decriminalizing some forms of domestic violence. Although RC research is focused on male control of a female's reproductive autonomy, RC can be perpetrated by other family members, institutions and the state [49-51]. RC can lead not only to unwanted pregnancy but also to negative health outcomes including mental disorders. Moreover, the control of reproduction may also have consequences for later mothering and relationships with children [52]. The growing up as unwanted child is a miserable destiny [53]. Some policies aimed at fertility elevation disregard reproductive rights of women. Among others, religion-related argumentation is used for opposition to birth control and sex education, depicting the childbearing as a duty, thus curtailing women's rights, including their sexual and reproductive autonomy. Of note, there cannot be any valid religious objections against contraception and abortions because these methods are not mentioned in sacred texts. Popular TV series depict unexpected pregnancies both in and out of wedlock as natural and unavoidable while contraception is mentioned rarely. The risks associated with abortions and contraception are exaggerated or invented by some authors, including medical professionals e.g. [54]. In fact, the mass misinformation is a facilitation of RC by the state.

In societies accepting the rape myth, sexual violence is seen as a method of acquiring wives [55, 56]. The fact that some victims married their rapists was erroneously seen as an indication that women enjoy it; in fact, sexual and reproductive coercion is associated with unfavorable health outcomes [56, 57]. In this connection, battered woman syndrome and learned helplessness must be timely identified [58, 59]. Sexual and reproductive coercion is not always recognized as such by victims. Intimidation and shame can prevent a woman from describing certain acts as coercion [48, 58]. The maltreatment of women is under-reported, especially in less open societies. Denunciation of illegal and immoral acts has been unusual in the former SU, especially if committed by individuals from the privileged milieu. Boys are taught sexual coercion in certain traditional settings: experience with relatives is not unusual [60]. Studies indicate a link between child maltreatment, including incest, and sexual crime committed by victims in their later life [61, 62]. Males imprisoned for sexual crime were often molested in their childhood. A similar pattern has been suggested for intergenerational incest [60]. A broad range of tactics is used by perpetrators: seduction and persuasion, alcohol and drugs, intimidation and violence, blackmail and financial
pressure [43], as well as deceit including concealment of genetic diseases [63]. Women should be
aware of these tactics.

Among others, the propensity for migrations and vagabondage is associated with certain genetic
and/or ethnic characteristics. Migration may be desirable for people with abnormalities because
behavioral and other deviations are less conspicuous abroad as the person is not typical just because
he or she comes from another country. In a foreign environment, persons with abnormalities may be
at least temporarily devoid of stigma [64, 65]. "The grass is greener on the other side of the fence"
not for everybody but for some individuals for certain reasons. Among the causes may be inherited
features and/or affiliation with ethnic minorities. Another demographic problem, the gender
imbalance caused by migrations, sex-selective abortions or female neonaticide, has been discussed
elsewhere [10, 66]. The growing excess of males contributes to their marginalization, antisocial
behavior and militarism. It comes as no surprise that areas with high birth rates and unemployment
tend to be in turmoil [9].

In conclusion a few words about the Ukraine war. The declared reason of the Special Military
Operation (SMO), which began in February 2022, was the anti-separatist activity of Ukraine in the
Donbas since 2014. Apparently, this activity has been exaggerated by Russian officials and media
[67]. Combating separatism within national borders is justifiable, exemplified by Russian anti-
separatist operations in the North Caucasus (1994-2009). The Ukraine voted for independence
(~83%) in the 1991 referendum. The pro-independence vote varied from 95% in the west of the
country to 76.5 % in the Donetsk province and 54% in Crimea [68]. The 1991 borders of Ukraine
were recognized by all nations, including the Russian Federation (RF), which consented to
guarantee the borders by virtue of the Tripartite Accords (with participation of the United States) of
January 14, 1994, and the Budapest Declaration of December 5, 1994. On May 31, 1997, the Treaty
on Cooperation and Partnership between Russia and Ukraine was signed, recognizing the borders.
The State Duma endorsed the Treaty in December 1998 and the Federation Council in February
1999 [69]. In this connection, the SMO can be regarded as the breach of trust.

On the other hand, a majority of residents in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine are Russian-
speaking; many people were disappointed that their region had not become a part of RF. The
Ukraine in today's borders was created by Bolsheviks disregarding ethnic and linguistic realities.
Statistics about ethnic composition are potentially misleading because some residents registered
themselves as Ukrainians for reasons of convenience but continued sharing the Russian identity and
loyalty. Numerous Russia-sympathizers probably contribute to the misappropriation of foreign aid.
Some Russian-speaking areas may become parts of RF if the citizens really want it. A workable
solution must be found by means of negotiations. The question is, however, whether there are
responsible negotiating partners. The history of the 20th century demonstrated that some leaders took short-sighted decisions. Undoubtedly, Russians should support civilization; but there must be some certainty that right people and right policies are supported. The main thing is to avoid a large-scale war. Consequences would be unfavorable for both sides, as it was 100 years ago; and the winners will be those who stay outside.

The conflict has impeded ecological policies in Europe and worldwide. Environmental protection and energy conservation are less popular in Russia than in other developed nations. The conflict between two major agricultural countries has negative impact on the global food supply. Military actions burn much fuel and release toxic chemicals [70]. Birth control has been obfuscated by presumed national interests: the demographic growth is used to strengthen defenses. International tensions and conflicts are among reasons to boost childbearing. At the same time, the topic of inter-ethnic differences in the birth rate and migrations is largely avoided these days.

## Conclusion

Rapidly growing peoples should live in less spacious conditions. Consequences of the gender imbalance must be borne by populations with a male predominance due to immigration and/or sex-selective abortions. Recognition of these principles should become a basis for international understanding and trust. In view of ecological and economic conditions, an optimal fertility level must be recommended for different regions. Who would determine the level? Primarily, everyone for her- or himself. In a stable society with sufficient food and water resources, the birth rate of the titular nation may be higher than in regions where people consume desalinated water and foods acquired with foreign aid or exported fossil fuels. An international authority could issue evidence-based recommendations. Birth control has been obfuscated by presumed national interests; the demographic growth being supposed to strengthen the sovereignty and military strength.

Smoldering international conflicts contribute to birth rate elevation in certain regions. In the past, overpopulation was counteracted by homicide, pestilence and famine. Today, scientifically based humane methods can be used to regulate the population size, taking into account ecological and economical realities in different regions. Large projects could be accomplished to improve the quality of life: irrigation systems, nuclear and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels.

Hydroelectric power plants can be built on large rivers to produce hydrogen as a non-polluting energy carrier. Such projects would create many jobs, being a reasonable alternative to excessive military spending. Not only durable peace but also mutual trust is required for that. Unfortunately, trust may be abused. Confidence-building measures are of great importance. It appears inevitable that the global human population will become reduced during the present century. How this happens may be to some extent within our control. It will not remain so indefinitely.
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