# PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INFLUENCE OF CORRUPTION AND LACK OF EDUCATION

Mateo Cordier

► To cite this version:

Mateo Cordier. PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INFLUENCE OF CORRUPTION AND LACK OF EDUCATION. École thématique. "Plastics: Impacts and Action", Cornell University, France. 2021, pp.24. hal-04567050

HAL Id: hal-04567050

https://universite-paris-saclay.hal.science/hal-04567050v1

Submitted on 2 May 2024

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# Plastics: Impacts and Action

CornellX - EE113

Démarré - 17 mai 2021

**Course instructors:** Bethany Jorgensen (PhD Candidate), Marianne Krasny (Professor), Yue Li (Research Associate) from the Civic Ecology Lab in the Department of Natural Resources and the Environment at Cornell University

## PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INFLUENCE OF CORRUPTION AND LACK OF EDUCATION

Lecture by Mateo Cordier, June 2, 2021
<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

# Plastics: Impacts and Action

CornellX - EE113

Démarré - 17 mai 2021

**Course instructors:** Bethany Jorgensen (PhD Candidate), Marianne Krasny (Professor), Yue Li (Research Associate) from the Civic Ecology Lab in the Department of Natural Resources and the Environment at Cornell University

## PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INFLUENCE OF CORRUPTION AND LACK OF EDUCATION

Lecture by Mateo Cordier, June 2, 2021
QUESTION 1

* Is plastic contamination starting to **decrease** ?

* Some indicators suggest maybe **yes**?
QUESTION 1

* Is plastic contamination starting to **decrease** ?

* Some indicators suggest maybe **yes**?
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

THE OCEAN™
CLEANUP

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

THE LARGEST
CLEANUP IN
HISTORY

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

THE OCEAN™
CLEANUP

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

THE LARGEST
CLEANUP IN
HISTORY

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /></figure>

**Source:** Eriksen M et al. (2014) Plastic Pollution in the World's Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea. PLOS ONE 9(12): e111913. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0111913

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

Concentration of microplastics **with** and **without** cleaning in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

SOURCE theoceancleanup.com

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

Plastic continent in the North Pacific
(Great Pacific Garbage Patch).

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

Source: Eriksen M et al. (2014) Plastic Pollution in the World's Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea. PLOS ONE 9(12): e111913.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0111913

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /></figure>

Concentration of microplastics **with** and **without** cleaning in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com

<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

SOURCE theoceancleanup.com

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>

Plastic continent in the North Pacific
(Great Pacific Garbage Patch).

Source: https://theoceancleanup.com
QUESTION 2

* But what shows a more detailed analysis?

* Are ocean cleaning **technologies** really able to reduce plastic contamination?
QUESTION 2

* But what shows a more detailed analysis?

* Are ocean cleaning **technologies** really able to reduce plastic contamination?
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

- This graph exclusively shows **plastics floating** at the ocean surface.

- These can be cleaned relatively easily.

- But what about those floating at various depths in the **water column**?

- And those deposited on the **seabed**?

- And those stranded on **beaches**?

<figure><img src="image_10.png" /></figure>
THE LARGEST
CLEANUP IN
HISTORY

THE OCEAN™
CLEANUP

WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

- This graph exclusively shows **plastics floating** at the ocean surface.

- These can be cleaned relatively easily.

- But what about those floating at various depths in the **water column**?

- And those deposited on the **seabed**?

- And those stranded on **beaches**?

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

Amount of **floating plastics** accumulated at the ocean surface globally
= ~**268 000 tonnes** in 2010

**Source:** Eriksen M., Lebreton L., Carson H.S., Thiel M., et al. (2014). Plastic Pollution in the World's Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea. PLoS ONE 9(12): e111913.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=
10.1371/journal.pone.0111913

Total amount of plastics
accumulated in the global ocean
(deposited on the seabed,
stranded on beaches, floating in
the water column and at the
ocean surface)
= ~**79 000 000 tonnes** in 2010

**Source:** Cordier M. and Uehara T., 2019. How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination? Science of the total environment 670 (2019) 789-799.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719312501
WE ARE CLEANING THE OCEANS

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>

Amount of **floating plastics** accumulated at the ocean surface globally
= ~**268 000 tonnes** in 2010

**Source:** Eriksen M., Lebreton L., Carson H.S., Thiel M., et al. (2014). Plastic Pollution in the World's Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea. PLoS ONE 9(12): e111913.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=
10.1371/journal.pone.0111913

Total amount of plastics
accumulated in the global ocean
(deposited on the seabed,
stranded on beaches, floating in
the water column and at the
ocean surface)
= ~**79 000 000 tonnes** in 2010

**Source:** Cordier M. and Uehara T., 2019. How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination? Science of the total environment 670 (2019) 789-799.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719312501
QUESTION 3 — WHAT IS THE SOLUTION ?

* What are supplementary solutions if **technologies** in ocean cleaning **are not sufficient** ?

* But anyway, why cleaning the **oceans** if we are **continuously filling** them with plastics?

* Shouldn't we better solve the problem at the source, that is, **on land**?
QUESTION 3 — WHAT IS THE SOLUTION ?

* What are supplementary solutions if **technologies** in ocean cleaning **are not sufficient** ?

* But anyway, why cleaning the **oceans** if we are **continuously filling** them with plastics?

* Shouldn't we better solve the problem at the source, that is, **on land**?
# SOLUTION: REVIVING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

* Some economists believe that **economic growth** is *The* solution.

* They rely on the theory of the **Environmental Kuznets Curve** (an equation exclusively relying on **GDP per capita**):

1. In the **growth phase** of a country, inhabitants see their income increasing → As a result, they consume more → It generates more plastic waste (**inadequately managed** due to the lack of effective waste treatment system)

2. Beyond a certain level of income per inhabitant, the amount of **plastic waste** per inhabitant **inadequately managed** would start to **decrease**:

3. – **because populations** having access to better life conditions start to worry about the quality of their existence and **demand environmental improvements**.

– **because a growing economy** has more financial resources **to invest** in waste treatment technologies, in ocean cleaning technologies, etc.

<figure><img src="image_12.png" /></figure>
# SOLUTION: REVIVING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

* Some economists believe that **economic growth** is *The* solution.

* They rely on the theory of the **Environmental Kuznets Curve** (an equation exclusively relying on **GDP per capita**):

1. In the **growth phase** of a country, inhabitants see their income increasing → As a result, they consume more → It generates more plastic waste (inadequately managed due to the lack of effective waste treatment system)

2. Beyond a certain level of income per inhabitant, the amount of plastic waste per inhabitant **inadequately managed** would start to **decrease**:

3. – **because populations** having access to better life conditions start to worry about the quality of their existence and **demand environmental improvements**.

– **because a growing economy** has more financial resources **to invest** in waste treatment technologies, in ocean cleaning technologies, etc.

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /></figure>
SOLUTION: REVIVING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Inadequately managed:

municipal solid waste whose treatment
consists in disposing of it in open dumps
or discarding it in waterways or marine
areas

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>Plastic wastes inadequately managed
per capita (kg/person/year)</figcaption></figure>

◇ Observed data in 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

● Estimations from the Environmental Kuznets Curve calculated for 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international $/person) (natural log)
SOLUTION: REVIVING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Inadequately managed:
municipal solid waste whose treatment
consists in disposing of it in open dumps
or discarding it in waterways or marine
areas

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /><figcaption>Plastic wastes inadequately managed
per capita (kg/person/year)</figcaption></figure>

◇ Observed data in 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

● Estimations from the Environmental Kuznets Curve calculated for 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international $/person) (natural log)
RESEARCH QUESTION

* Which **non-technological solutions** could reduce plastic contamination of the global ocean ?
RESEARCH QUESTION

* Which **non-technological solutions** could reduce plastic contamination of the global ocean ?
# SOLUTION: CONTROLLING CORRUPTION AND LOBBY?

* Corruption control policies including control of financial and industrial lobby
  (Corruption = when the public power is used for private gain, including petty and grand forms of corruption and the State is captured by elites and private interests (definition from the World Bank)).

* Urbanisation

* Culture, mentalities and moral values in each region of the world

* International tourism on small islands

* GDP per capita

**Model 1** (on next slide) takes into accounts all these explanatory variables
SOLUTION: CONTROLLING CORRUPTION AND LOBBY?

- Corruption control policies including control of financial and industrial lobby
  (Corruption = when the public power is used for private gain, including petty and grand forms of corruption and the State is captured by elites and private interests (definition from the World Bank)).

- Urbanisation

- Culture, mentalities and moral values in each region of the world

- International tourism on small islands

- GDP per capita

**Model 1** (on next slide) takes into accounts all these explanatory variables
SOLUTION: CONTROLLING CORRUPTION AND LOBBY?

<figure><img src="image_14.png" /></figure>

**Source:** Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
SOLUTION: CONTROLLING CORRUPTION AND LOBBY?

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
SOLUTION: EDUCATION POLICIES?

Several studies show that **education** at school influences environmental
awareness. **Model 2** takes that into account:

- **Education** (average number of years spent at school for individuals ≥ 25 years old)

- Urbanisation

- Culture, mentalities and moral values in each region of the world

- International tourism on small islands

- GDP per capita
# SOLUTION: EDUCATION POLICIES?

Several studies show that **education** at school influences environmental awareness. **Model 2** takes that into account:

- **Education** (average number of years spent at school for individuals ≥ 25 years old)

- Urbanisation

- Culture, mentalities and moral values in each region of the world

- International tourism on small islands

- GDP per capita
SOLUTION: EDUCATION POLICIES?

<figure><img src="image_15.png" /></figure>

◇ Observed data in 141 countries
(in 2011-2017).

● Estimations from Model 2 in 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international $/person) (natural log)

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
SOLUTION: EDUCATION POLICIES?

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /></figure>

◇ Observed data in 141 countries
(in 2011-2017).

● Estimations from Model 2 in 141 countries (in 2011-2017).

GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international $/person) (natural log)

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
# IF WE DON'T DO ANYTHING, WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

- The Environmental Kuznets Curve will not reach zero pollution. In 2050, the curve will still reach 61 million t/year at best or 110 million t/year at worse.

<figure><img src="image_16.png" /><figcaption>World GDP over 1990-2050 (in PPP constant 2011 international 10¹² $)</figcaption></figure>
# IF WE DON'T DO ANYTHING, WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

- The Environmental Kuznets Curve will not reach zero pollution. In 2050, the curve will still reach 61 million t/year at best or 110 million t/year at worse.

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>World GDP over 1990-2050 (in PPP constant 2011 international 10¹² $)</figcaption></figure>
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

- In the top 43 countries, the number of schooling years for individuals ≥ 25 years old is increased to 12 years

<figure><img src="image_17.png" /><figcaption>Annual plastic waste inadequately managed globally (MMT/year)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

- In the top 43 countries, the number of schooling years for individuals ≥ 25 years old is increased to 12 years

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>Annual plastic waste inadequately managed globally (MMT/year)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

- In the top 43 countries, corruption & lobby control policies are raised closer to the level of France, Uruguay or Estonia in 2017

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /><figcaption>Annual plastic waste inadequately managed globally (MMT/year)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

- In the top 43 countries, corruption & lobby control policies are raised closer to the level of France, Uruguay or Estonia in 2017

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /><figcaption>Annual plastic waste inadequately managed globally (MMT/year)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
## CONCLUSION

* The growth of GDP per capita will not create sufficient investment capacity in waste treatment infrastructures to solve the problem of plastics.

* Non-technological solutions such as corruption & lobby control policies and education are able to reduce inadequately managed plastic waste. They must be part of implemented interventions.

To maintain our current appetite for natural resources, we would need the equivalent of 1.7 Earths

<figure><img src="image_19.png" /><figcaption>Global GDP over 1961-2016 (billion US $, constant prices of 2010)</figcaption></figure>

Linear regression: Ecological footprint = f (LN (GDP))

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>SS</th><th>df</th><th>MS</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Model</td><td>3.88352381</td><td>1</td><td>3.88352381</td></tr><tr><td>Residual</td><td>.110282952</td><td>54</td><td>.002042277</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>3.99380676</td><td>55</td><td>.072614668</td></tr></tbody></table>

Number of obs = 56
F( 1, 54) = 1901.57
Prob > F = 0.0000
R-squared = 0.9724
Adj R-squared = 0.9719
Root MSE = .04519

<table><thead><tr><th>Ecological footprint</th><th>Coef.</th><th>Std. Err.</th><th>t</th><th>P>|t|</th><th>[95% Conf. Interval]</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>LN (GDP)</td><td>.5025289</td><td>.0115241</td><td>43.61</td><td>0.000</td><td>.4794245</td><td>.5256332</td></tr><tr><td>_cons</td><td>-3.984623</td><td>.1204577</td><td>-33.08</td><td>0.000</td><td>-4.226126</td><td>-3.74312</td></tr></tbody></table>
## CONCLUSION

* The growth of GDP per capita will not create sufficient investment capacity in waste treatment infrastructures to solve the problem of plastics.

* Non-technological solutions such as corruption & lobby control policies and education are able to reduce inadequately managed plastic waste. They must be part of implemented interventions.

To maintain our current appetite for natural resources, we would need the equivalent of 1.7 Earths

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /><figcaption>Global GDP over 1961-2016
(billion US $, constant prices of 2010)</figcaption></figure>

Linear regression: Ecological footprint = f (LN (GDP))

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>SS</th><th>df</th><th>MS</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Model</td><td>3.88352381</td><td>1</td><td>3.88352381</td></tr><tr><td>Residual</td><td>.110282952</td><td>54</td><td>.002042277</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>3.99380676</td><td>55</td><td>.072614668</td></tr></tbody></table>

Number of obs = 56
F( 1, 54) = 1901.57
Prob > F = 0.0000
R-squared = 0.9724
Adj R-squared = 0.9719
Root MSE = .04519

<table><thead><tr><th>Ecological footprint</th><th>Coef.</th><th>Std. Err.</th><th>t</th><th>P>|t|</th><th>[95% Conf. Interval]</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>LN (GDP)</td><td>.5025289</td><td>.0115241</td><td>43.61</td><td>0.000</td><td>.4794245</td><td>.5256332</td></tr><tr><td>_cons</td><td>-3.984623</td><td>.1204577</td><td>-33.08</td><td>0.000</td><td>-4.226126</td><td>-3.74312</td></tr></tbody></table>
FOR MORE INFORMATION...

Email: mateo.cordier@uvsq.fr

Ecological Economics 182 (2021) 106930

<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>

ELSEVIER

Ecological Economics

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

<figure><img src="image_21.png" /></figure>

Analysis

Plastic pollution and economic growth: The influence of corruption and lack of education

Mateo Cordier<sup>a,b,c,*</sup>, Takuro Uehara<sup>d</sup>, Juan Baztan<sup>a,c</sup>, Bethany Jorgensen<sup>c,e</sup>, Huijie Yan<sup>a</sup>

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article
/pii/S0921800920322217

Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of
corruption and the lack of education

Preprint · May 2020

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23198.97601

ResearchGate

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

Mateo Cordier
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

Juan Baztan
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin

READS
1246

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Takuro Uehara
Ritsumeikan University

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

Bethany Jorgensen
Cornell University

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
FOR MORE INFORMATION...

Email: mateo.cordier@uvsq.fr

Ecological Economics 182 (2021) 106930

<figure><img src="image_22.png" /></figure>

ELSEVIER

Ecological Economics

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

<figure><img src="image_23.png" /></figure>

Analysis

Plastic pollution and economic growth: The influence of corruption and lack of education

Mateo Cordier<sup>a,b,c,*</sup>, Takuro Uehara<sup>d</sup>, Juan Baztan<sup>a,c</sup>, Bethany Jorgensen<sup>c,e</sup>, Huijie Yan<sup>a</sup>

<figure><img src="image_24.png" /></figure>

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article
/pii/S0921800920322217

Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of
corruption and the lack of education

Preprint · May 2020

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23198.97601

ResearchGate

<figure><img src="image_25.png" /></figure>

Mateo Cordier
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin

<figure><img src="image_26.png" /></figure>

Juan Baztan
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin

READS
1246

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>

Takuro Uehara
Ritsumeikan University

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /></figure>

Bethany Jorgensen
Cornell University

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education
APPENDIX

CEARC
Cultures • Environments
Arctic • Representations • Climate

<figure><img src="image_27.png" /></figure>
APPENDIX
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

* Implementing **waste policies** that think consumption differently (UE-28 included)

<figure><img src="image_28.png" /><figcaption>Stock of plastic waste accumulated in the global ocean since 1950 (million tonnes)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M. and Uehara T., 2019. How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination? Science of the total environment 670 (2019) 789–799. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719312501

* **Scenario 4.1:** Reducing by 50% plastic waste inadequately managed in the top 20 most polluting countries.

* **Scenario 4.2:** capping **in all countries** the individual generation of waste to 1.2 kg/day/inhabitant and the percentage of plastics in these waste to 11% (both figures = the world average). How to reach that?

- Installing public recycling bins in the street.

- Developing return and deposit systems for bottle reuse.

- Designing laws to make *Extended Producer Responsibility* compulsory for plastic products.

- Subsidise (and/or tax exemptions) for repair cafés offering collaborative workshops to learn how to repair broken devices.

- Taxing products designed with planned obsolescence.
# HOW TO CHANGE THE TREND ?

* Implementing **waste policies** that think consumption differently (UE-28 included)

<figure><img src="image_29.png" /><figcaption>Stock of plastic waste accumulated in the global ocean since 1950 (million tonnes)</figcaption></figure>

Source: Cordier M. and Uehara T., 2019. How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination? Science of the total environment 670 (2019) 789–799. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719312501

* **Scenario 4.1:** Reducing by 50% plastic waste inadequately managed in the top 20 most polluting countries.

* **Scenario 4.2:** capping **in all countries** the individual generation of waste to 1.2 kg/day/inhabitant and the percentage of plastics in these waste to 11% (both figures = the world average). How to reach that?

- Installing public recycling bins in the street.

- Developing return and deposit systems for bottle reuse.

- Designing laws to make *Extended Producer Responsibility* compulsory for plastic products.

- Subsidise (and/or tax exemptions) for repair cafés offering collaborative workshops to learn how to repair broken devices.

- Taxing products designed with planned obsolescence.
<figure><img src="image_30.png" /></figure>

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Upstream</td><td>Solutions at the source of the problem</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Middle solutions</td><td>Preventive measures</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Avoid and reduce waste production</td><td>1. Awareness raising campaigns and collaborative strategies (Benkler, 2011; Ostrom, 2010) to encourage households to reduce waste generation and overconsumption behaviors in general.<br>2. Inciting industries to substitute plastic materials with aluminum, glass, bio-plastics, etc.<br>3. Nurdle spillage prevention in plastic factories (nurdles are pre-production microplastic pellets).<br>4. Fiscal instruments and compulsory legislation to reduce the amount of packaging.<br>5. Compulsory legislation to ban micro beads in cosmetics or in toothpastes, or to ban single-use plastic products, etc.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Reuse or repair old products</td><td>6. Returnable glass or PET bottle systems.<br>7. Moving from an economy of ownership to one of service functionality.<br>8. Online systems designed to help to share, trade, exchange, lend or rent second-hand products between neighbors, including plastic products.<br>9. Legislation forbidding planned obsolescence of products.<br>10. Fiscal rules that favor longer lasting products, etc.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Recycling</td><td>11. Recycling in closed cycles (e.g., recycling of plastic bottles, plastic bags, etc.).<br>12. Legislation for compulsory extended producer responsibility in the plastic industry.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Improvement in waste collection infrastructure</td><td>13. Invest in landfill sealing to avoid plastic waste leakages through rain, waterways or wind, from dumps or open, uncontrolled landfills, where waste is not suitably contained.<br>14. Invest in public garbage cans, waste collection system, awareness raising to reduce littering, etc.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Incineration</td><td>15. Plastic waste incineration.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Energy recovery</td><td>16. Plastic waste incineration with energy cogeneration.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Composting biodegradable plastic bottles</td><td>17. Biodegradable (compostable) plastics made of starch that meet standards for biodegradability and compostability.</td></tr><tr><td>End-of-pipe solutions</td><td>Curative measures</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Restore, e.g., remove plastics from ecosystems</td><td>18. Collection of plastic debris in oceans, for example the Ocean Cleanup Project (Slat, 2014).<br>19. Beach cleanups.<br>20. River interception techniques before plastic wastes enter the ocean, or filters in water treatment plants, etc.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Health measures</td><td>21. Medical services to cure health impacts due to consumption of chemicals in plastic (e.g., Bisphenol-A and other endocrine disruptors).</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Palliative measures</td><td>22. Final consumers purchasing glass bottles instead of plastic ones, switching from plastic bottles of mineral water to public tap water, etc.</td></tr></tbody></table>

COMBINING SOLUTIONS

* We need to take measure **upstream** of the problem, **not downstream**.

* Focusing all efforts on 1 **downstream solution** – ex. ocean cleaning technologies – will not be **enough**.

* We must **combine several strategies** :

**Upstream strategies** : education, control of corruption and lobby, repair cafés, prohibit single use plastic products (bottles included!), etc.

**Middle strategies** : return and deposit systems for bottle reuse, recycling, etc.

**Downstream strategies**: ocean and beach cleaning, filtering rivers in estuaries, etc.

Source: Cordier M. and Uehara T., 2019. How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination? Science of the total environment 670 (2019) 789–799. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719312501
# IF WE DON'T DO ANYTHING, WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

The top 43 countries generating the highest amounts of inadequately managed plastic waste in 2017 (BAU scenario = current trend)

- The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario will occur

<table><thead><tr><th colspan="7">Observed data from World Bank (2018a, 2019)</th><th colspan="4">BAU scenario (results from Model 2 except in the ranges where results from Models 1 and 2 are shown)</th></tr><tr><th rowspan="2">Country</th><th rowspan="2">Income category</th><th colspan="2">Corruption control policy estimate</th><th rowspan="2">Years of schooling</th><th rowspan="2">Population (million)</th><th colspan="2">Plastic waste generation rate (kg/person/yr)</th><th rowspan="2">% Inadequately managed waste</th><th rowspan="2">Inadequately managed plastic waste (MMT/yr)</th><th rowspan="2">Inadequately managed plastic waste (MMT/yr)</th></tr><tr><th>1996</th><th>2017</th><th>1995</th><th>2010</th><th>2017</th><th>2017</th><th>2017</th><th>2050</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1 India</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.38</td><td>-0.24</td><td>↑</td><td>3.51</td><td>5.39</td><td>↑</td><td>1338.7</td><td>20.2</td><td>79.6%</td><td>13.85 - 21.57</td><td>4.50 - 8.98</td></tr><tr><td>2 China</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.27</td><td>-0.27</td><td>→</td><td>5.69</td><td>7.12</td><td>↑</td><td>1386.4</td><td>31.0</td><td>32.2%</td><td>12.38 - 13.82</td><td>1.71 - 10.05</td></tr><tr><td>3 Brazil</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.02</td><td>-0.53</td><td>↓</td><td>4.84</td><td>7.66</td><td>↑</td><td>207.8</td><td>44.8</td><td>94.0%</td><td>8.64 - 8.75</td><td>5.11 - 8.66</td></tr><tr><td>4 Mexico</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.51</td><td>-0.93</td><td>↓</td><td>6.48</td><td>8.33</td><td>↑</td><td>124.8</td><td>45.0</td><td>85.1%</td><td>4.78 - 5.29</td><td>1.80 - 7.46</td></tr><tr><td>5 Indonesia</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.86</td><td>-0.25</td><td>↑</td><td>4.21</td><td>7.26</td><td>↑</td><td>264.6</td><td>30.1</td><td>53.7%</td><td>2.89 - 4.28</td><td>0.78 - 0.80</td></tr><tr><td>6 Pakistan</td><td>LMC</td><td>-1.22</td><td>-0.78</td><td>↑</td><td>2.77</td><td>4.45</td><td>↑</td><td>207.9</td><td>17.8</td><td>90.8%</td><td>2.77 - 3.37</td><td>3.46 - 3.49</td></tr><tr><td>7 Nigeria</td><td>LMC</td><td>-1.19</td><td>-1.07</td><td>↑</td><td>N.A.</td><td>N.A.</td><td></td><td>190.9</td><td>19.4</td><td>80.5%</td><td>2.91 - 2.98</td><td>7.76 - 7.99</td></tr><tr><td>8 Bangladesh</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.97</td><td>-0.83</td><td>↑</td><td>3.29</td><td>4.91</td><td>↑</td><td>159.7</td><td>15.5</td><td>92.1%</td><td>2.01 - 2.29</td><td>1.57 - 1.69</td></tr><tr><td>9 Colombia</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.51</td><td>-0.37</td><td>↑</td><td>6.09</td><td>8.45</td><td>↑</td><td>48.9</td><td>46.6</td><td>92.8%</td><td>2.10 - 2.12</td><td>1.98 - 3.20</td></tr><tr><td>10 Argentina</td><td>HIC</td><td>-0.10</td><td>-0.26</td><td>↓</td><td>8.34</td><td>9.48</td><td>↑</td><td>44.0</td><td>44.3</td><td>79.4%</td><td>1.70 - 1.55</td><td>0.56 - 1.57</td></tr><tr><td>11 Vietnam</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.49</td><td>-0.58</td><td>↓</td><td>4.60</td><td>7.45</td><td>↑</td><td>94.6</td><td>19.6</td><td>69.9%</td><td>1.16 - 1.30</td><td>0.23 - 0.67</td></tr><tr><td>12 Philippines</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.36</td><td>-0.48</td><td>↓</td><td>7.12</td><td>8.18</td><td>↑</td><td>105.2</td><td>27.0</td><td>44.3%</td><td>1.26 - 1.54</td><td>0.15 - 1.16</td></tr><tr><td>13 Peru</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.40</td><td>-0.50</td><td>↓</td><td>7.25</td><td>8.68</td><td>↑</td><td>31.4</td><td>45.5</td><td>86.8%</td><td>1.24 - 1.34</td><td>0.32 - 1.75</td></tr><tr><td>14 Egypt</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.47</td><td>-0.54</td><td>↓</td><td>4.05</td><td>6.55</td><td>↑</td><td>96.4</td><td>19.7</td><td>53.8%</td><td>1.02 - 1.68</td><td>0.13 - 2.29</td></tr><tr><td>15 Ethiopia</td><td>LIC</td><td>-0.93</td><td>-0.56</td><td>↑</td><td>N.A.</td><td>N.A.</td><td></td><td>106.4</td><td>9.6</td><td>97.6%</td><td>0.90 - 1.00</td><td>0.92 - 1.20</td></tr><tr><td>16 Morocco</td><td>LMC</td><td>-0.11</td><td>-0.13</td><td>↓</td><td>2.66</td><td>4.24</td><td>↑</td><td>35.6</td><td>29.8</td><td>84.6%</td><td>0.90 - 0.93</td><td>0.53 - 1.45</td></tr><tr><td>17 Chile</td><td>HIC</td><td>1.45</td><td>1.04</td><td>↓</td><td>8.40</td><td>9.71</td><td>↑</td><td>18.5</td><td>61.2</td><td>72.3%</td><td>0.59 - 0.82</td><td>0.24 - 0.44</td></tr><tr><td>18 Venezuela</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.86</td><td>-1.36</td><td>↓</td><td>5.5</td><td>8.16</td><td>↑</td><td>29.4</td><td>31.2</td><td>89.1%</td><td>0.82 - 0.88</td><td>0.38 - 1.09</td></tr><tr><td>19 Turkey</td><td>UMC</td><td>-0.15</td><td>-0.19</td><td>↓</td><td>4.81</td><td>6.56</td><td>↑</td><td>81.1</td><td>40.4</td><td>24.4%</td><td>0.56 - 0.80</td><td>0.08 - 0.17</td></tr><tr><td>20 Europe - 28<br/>[...]</td><td>HIC</td><td>1.18</td><td>1.09</td><td>↓</td><td>9.13</td><td>11.23</td><td>↑</td><td>512.2</td><td>49.7</td><td>3.1%</td><td>0.80 - 1.01</td><td>0.07 - 1.13</td></tr></tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan="7">Total 43 countries</td><td colspan="2">77.3 - 86.9</td><td colspan="2">49.6 - 90.9</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">Total world (217 countries)</td><td colspan="2">91.0 - 95.4</td><td colspan="2">61.2 - 110.2</td></tr></tfoot></table>

Source: Cordier M., Uehara T., Baztan J., Jorgensen B., 2020. Plastic pollution and economic growth: the influence of corruption and the lack of education. Preprint ResearchGate, License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341258750_Plastic_pollution_and_economic_growth_the_influence_of_corruption_and_the_lack_of_education