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# Rethinking user rights of profitable marine invasions: Lessons from the Norwegian Barents Snow Crab fishery

Melina Kourantidou, Brooks A Kaiser

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Melina Kourantidou, Brooks A Kaiser. Rethinking user rights of profitable marine invasions: Lessons from the Norwegian Barents Snow Crab fishery. Ocean and Coastal Management, 2024, 259, pp.107430. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107430. hal-05244671

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https://hal.univ-brest.fr/hal-05244671v1

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# Rethinking user rights of profitable marine invasions: Lessons from the Norwegian Barents Snow Crab fishery

Melina Kourantidou<sup>a,b,*</sup>, Brooks A. Kaiser<sup>b</sup>

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

## ARTICLE INFO

**Keywords:**

Strong user rights in fisheries

Profitable invasive species

Sustainability

Ecological and social value

Norwegian snow crab fishery

## ABSTRACT

Profitable marine invasions can occur when a newly arrived invasive species not only negatively changes ecosystem characteristics but is also exploited as a valuable market commodity. Such species pit existing ecosystem production values against potential value paths as their presence instigates management decisions that may vary from favoring a conservative, status quo approach on one end to a more risk-loving, adaptive approach on the other. Despite commitments to environmental treaties for limiting spread, local interests may purposefully support growth of invasions for their benefit. Potential value paths will depend not only on the ecological changes in the natural capital supporting the profitable resource extraction but also the user rights developed to address the changing asset structure and productivity. Current economic thinking suggests that the stronger the user rights in addressing questions of exclusivity, security and duration, the higher the gains to the present value of expected benefits from the rights. We discuss how both scale and uncertainties regarding irreversible ecological value and productivity shifts may require refinement of this theory. We explore the Barents Sea Snow Crab (*Chionoecetes opilio*) fishery, with particular attention to the Norwegian approach to its management. The uncertain ecological impacts of this invasive species have led to international disputes and significant management challenges. Norway has implemented exclusionary policies by designating the crab as sedentary to limit foreign access, sparking conflicts over the Svalbard Treaty. These unilateral actions have led to fines, court cases, and diplomatic tensions. As the Snow Crab expands toward sensitive Arctic habitats, a broader governance approach is needed. We take a critical look at the exclusivity, security, and durability of property rights associated with the Norwegian Snow Crab fishery, assessing their inherent weaknesses and implications since the onset of the fishery in 2012. As there is a growing interest in developing profitable resource exploitation and fisheries for new, often invading species, the Norwegian Snow Crab fishery provides valuable lessons and guidance for governance and management of such resources, aiming to mitigate risks and foster economically viable and environmentally responsible practices.

## 1. Introduction

The Snow Crab (*Chionoecetes opilio*) (SC), native to the Northwest Atlantic and the North Pacific Oceans (Agnalt et al., 2010), was first recorded in the Barents Sea in 1996 (Kuzmin et al., 1998, 1999; Jorstad and Jelmert 1997) and has generally been regarded as a biological invasion, though its status has more recently been a topic of ongoing discussion. Invasive alien species are known to be a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem integrity while also exerting negative impacts to human and social wellbeing. They are species accidentally or intentionally introduced by humans into non-native environments where

they establish populations. Once established, their populations spread rapidly—actively or passively, with or without further human mediation (Soto et al., 2024). While the introduction pathway remains unclear, a new SC population has been established in the Barents Sea. Management of the negative invasive species impacts have been complicated by the potential and realization of a commercial fishery, starting from 2012. This paper explores the evolution of the SC fishery, focusing on Norway's governance, which emerged after a period of open-access exploitation by Russian, EU, and Norwegian vessels in international waters and Russian and Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Since the fishery's inception, there have been several changes in legal

<footnote><sup>a</sup> University of Western Brittany, AMURE, IUEM- Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, rue Dumont d'Urville, Plouzané, 29280, France</footnote>

<footnote><sup>b</sup> University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Sustainability, Degnevej 14, Esbjerg, 6705, Denmark</footnote>

<footnote>* Corresponding author. University of Western Brittany, UMR 6308 AMURE rue Dumont d'Urville, 29280, Plouzané, France. E-mail addresses: melina.kourantidou@univ-brest.fr (M. Kourantidou), baka@sdu.dk (B.A. Kaiser).</footnote>
and biological definitions as well as in the expectations of spread, profitability and ecosystem damages that have challenged efforts at creating strong user rights and an efficient approach to the fishery's development and management. Further, one change in particular - designation of the SC as a sedentary species under UNCLOS regulations - may have strengthened national rights in favor of local interests at the expense of global efficiency.

SC fishing in the Barents Sea continues to evolve. It has transitioned from an open-access fishery, which included European vessel participation, to one now restricted to Russian and Norwegian vessels. In Norway, fishing is conducted within a limited area of the Norwegian continental shelf, including catches in the Loophole and the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone (see Fig. 1). The Total Allowable Catch (TAC) has grown from 4000 tons in 2017, when it was first established, to more than 10,000 tons in 2024. Although 71 companies hold permits to fish, the actual number of active participants is much smaller. The Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries has previously assessed that only ten shipping companies and vessels are currently qualified to receive a permit, particularly now that the fishery is scheduled to close in January 2025.

Russian and Norwegian interests have diverged, and insights from more than 50 years of cooperative management of Barents Sea fisheries between the two countries under the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission provide little guidance. Norway's exclusion from fishing in Russian waters has markedly impacted economic interests of Norwegian fishing stakeholders, also considering Norway's ambitious vision in early years of the fishery (Fenstad 2015; Hvingel 2015; Norges Råfisklag, 2016; Kaiser et al., 2018) and the investments that followed. The 100+ year old Svalbard Treaty (Treaty Concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen, 1920) that resolved lingering WWI claims to the archipelago's resources, and later, fostered cooperative management in the 200 nm zone around the islands through the Northeast Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) regional fisheries management organization, have been sources of further conflict rather than mechanisms for securing strong user rights. The ongoing conflicts have involved court and arbitration procedures within Norway and internationally for several years. Most, if not all, resolutions to date have aligned with Norway's interpretations and interests in the fishery. Despite this, the high stakes and significant uncertainties persist, continuing to fuel costly disputes.

These shifts in property rights and management have significantly reinforced the perceived rights of Norwegian stakeholders over SC harvest, yet the Norwegian fishery remains largely unprofitable to date. We first provide an overview of how the invasion and existing user rights have co-evolved with Norwegian management efforts. We then turn to interpreting this evolution in the context of strong user rights, including their current limitations in addressing ambiguities stemming from ecological uncertainty, international rights agreements, and the ability to establish efficient fisheries practices. While we recognize the established theory of strong user rights, our focus is on refining these rights to better accommodate shifts in species distributions, conflicts between continental shelf and pelagic resources, and other changing ecological, economic, or political conditions. This refinement aims to enhance the adaptability and practical implementation of strong user rights, rather than suggesting a fundamental rethinking of the theory itself. Thus, the adaptability of user rights is as important as their strength in achieving sustainable management and supporting natural and physical capital. In this study, we focus on the most relevant dimensions of Strong User Rights in Fisheries (SURFs), which include Security, Exclusivity, and Durability. Transferability, although an important aspect of SURFs, is not directly relevant to the current analysis and remains speculative in the context of the Barents Sea SC fishery today (Standal and Hersoug 2024).

## 2. Background and management overview

### 2.1. Evolving international rights and obligations

The SC population has increased rapidly over recent decades and has resulted in a potentially valuable commercial fishery in international waters of the Barents Sea (Loophole), Norway's and Russia's EEZs and increasingly in the Svalbard Fishery Protection Zone (SFPZ) (Fig. 1). The initial response to the discovery of its presence by Russian scientists in the Russian EEZ off Novaya Zemlya in 1996 was to watch and wait. This has included joint benthic surveying and data sharing with Norway, which has itself evolved to be more comprehensive over time (Eriksen et al., 2018), underlining the importance of scientific information in creating successful user rights systems (NRC 2004).

The crab's westward spread to international waters led to a variety of EU vessels targeting the new species in 2012. In 2015, three years after the start of this commercial exploitation in the Loophole, the SC was officially classified as a "sedentary" species through an agreement between Norway and Russia during the 20th North Atlantic Fisheries Ministers' Conference (Valletta, Malta, 16-17 July 2015). This classification marked a significant shift in applicable legal rights and associated management objectives, recognizing SC as a continental shelf resource instead of a pelagic fishery or water column resource (Joint Norwegian Russian Fisheries Commission 2015). The term "sedentary" describes species that, during their harvestable stages, remain immobile on or under the seabed, or cannot move except in constant physical contact with the seabed or subsoil (UNCLOS 1982). This designation has significant implications for the management of the SC in international waters of the Loophole (Fig. 1). Unlike pelagic resources beyond 200 nautical miles, typically managed under high seas jurisdiction through cooperative efforts<fnref n="1" /> (UNCLOS 1982, p.65 UNCLOS Part VII, Article 118), the sedentary status of the SC exempts it from such joint management obligations. Instead, exclusive continental shelf rights grant Norway and Russia unilateral control over harvest and management of the SC within their continental shelf areas. The conservation and utilization of this valuable marine resource thus occur under significantly different incentive structures than shared pelagic resources.

The biological attributes of the SC affect its legal status under maritime law (Kvalvik 2021). As a sedentary species under UNCLOS Article 77, the SC is subject to the "shelf clause", aligning its management with non-living resources like oil, gas, and minerals which are subject to the exclusive economic rights of coastal states over their continental shelves, rather than traditional marine species. Specifically, coastal states must consent to any exploration or exploitation of their continental shelf. The classification of the SC as sedentary has thus fundamentally altered its management. Jurisdiction and management rights over the species in the Barents Sea, including the international waters of the Loophole and, after further legal clarification of the extent of the Norwegian continental shelf, the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone, became exclusive to Norway and Russia. This designation reduces the risk of overexploitation by various fishing players, as it is no longer considered an international pelagic resource (Kaiser et al., 2018). The 2015 reclassification from a migratory fish stock to a continental shelf resource led to significant policy changes at various levels. Russia barred foreign vessels from SC harvesting within its segment of the continental shelf in the Loophole, covering about 85% of the area, by summer 2016 (Kvalvik 2021). Norway and Russia initially allowed mutual access for their fishing fleets to the crab-rich areas of the continental shelf surrounding the Loophole (Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet, 2015a), but this cooperative approach was short-lived. The cessation of this agreement in January 2017 was marked by Russia revoking Norwegian vessels' access to the most crab-dense areas on the Russian part of the

<footnote n="1">¹ Either bilateral or through the North-East Atlantic Fisheries (NEAFC) Commission.</footnote>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 1.** Barents Sea maritime borders (brown line), Snow Crab extent/distribution (black line (IMR 2021)) and Norwegian assessment area - where Norwegian fishing takes places and stock/management advice applies to (burgundy dotted line (Hjelset et al., 2023)). The red solid line indicates the Norwegian-Russian maritime border, with the Norwegian EEZ to the west of that point and the Russian EEZ to the east of that point. International waters of the "Loophole" are found outside the two EEZs and the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone. The closure of the Loophole through the sedentary designation resulted in the Snow Crab coming under Russian jurisdiction for approximately 85% of the continental shelf within the Loophole, granting Russia the property rights to that portion and respective rights for Snow Crab fishing. The Snow Crab on the remaining 15% belongs to Norway.</figcaption></figure>

continental shelf. This unilateral decision significantly constrained Norwegian fishers' access to SC populations, limiting them to less crab-dense areas on the Norwegian shelf and forcing Norway to recalibrate its own policies, leading to the exclusion of foreign (i.e. EU) access to its continental shelf areas, and later to the SFPZ. The impact of these regulatory shifts was immediate and stark. Norwegian SC harvests that had reached 5406 tons in 2016 (primarily through catches on the Russian continental shelf), declined by 40-50% over the next two years, falling to 3101 tons in 2017 and 2812 tons in 2018, below the 4000-ton TAC introduced in 2017. In contrast, Russian harvests grew from 2016 onwards. Though Norwegian quotas and catches have grown significantly since 2019 (Hjelset et al., 2023), these initial reductions, where catches were below TACs, underscore the challenges faced in Norwegian SC harvesting, influenced by shifts in legal fishing grounds and climate shifts affecting ice cover and access to crab-rich areas (Hogrenning 2023).

In addition to the change in access to SC in the loophole in 2017, access to the fishery in the SFPZ has also shifted. Since late 2016, Norway has strictly restricted access to non-Norwegian vessels in the SFPZ. This was highlighted by the Norwegian Coast Guard's apprehension of a Latvian vessel with an EU-issued SC license for unauthorized harvesting in the SFPZ (Kaiser et al., 2018). The right to fish for SC within the SFPZ remains contentious, sparking legal debates and arbitration procedures both within Norway and internationally (ie Supreme Court of Norway, 2017; 2019, 2023; Øst-Finnmark Tingrett 2017; ICSID 2024).

The dispute over fishing rights in the SFPZ stems from differing interpretations of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty. This treaty affirms Norway's sovereignty over Svalbard, granting it authority to manage Svalbard's resources, while declaring Svalbard's commercial resources accessible to all treaty signatories. Precedent has established that the surrounding pelagic zone is considered international waters (Kaiser et al., 2018;

Molenaar 2012; EC Oceans and fisheries, n.d.). The treaty mandates equal treatment, ensuring equal fishing and hunting rights for all signatory countries.

Norway's interpretation of the treaty suggests that the sea beyond Svalbard's territorial waters are international waters. With the growth of national EEZs in the 1970s, the 200 nm area around the archipelago became the SFPZ in 1977, with controversy ever since (Hønneland 2001). While other countries believe the treaty should extend over the 200 nm EEZ region, and view Norway's sharing of pelagic resources through NEAFC as support for this interpretation, Norway asserts that the treaty's provisions apply solely to Svalbard's mainland and its territorial waters, as stated in the treaty's text. Consequently, Norway claims sovereignty over the continental shelf beyond this limit, asserting rights to regulate SC fishing and other "sedentary species" within the 12-200 nautical mile zone surrounding Svalbard (Regjeringen 2017). In contrast, other nations interpret the treaty's "equal treatment principle" to mean that citizens of all signatory states have the same fishing rights as Norwegian vessels (Pedersen 2006). They argue that the shelf around Svalbard, viewed as an extension of Svalbard itself, necessitates the equal treatment principle's application to these areas as well (Kvalvik 2021; Hovelsrud et al., 2020). Norway considers the shelf a natural extension of its own, thus solely under its jurisdiction for resources like oil and gas (Henriksen 2019). To date, Norwegian courts have upheld Norwegian sovereignty over the entire continental shelf connecting mainland Europe to the archipelago (Prisacaru 2023). The race for Arctic resources, driven by their strategic and economic importance, has heightened political sensitivities, as Arctic nations seek to expand their jurisdiction over continental shelves rich in oil and gas deposits. The challenges in determining ownership rights to the SC fishery are indicative of the geopolitical dynamics that often shape Arctic resource management, where national interests and international legal
obligations can clash (Solski et al., 2020). While Norway's assertive stance in interpreting the Svalbard Treaty and managing the Fisheries Protection Zone reflects its broader Arctic policy, which seeks to balance national sovereignty with international cooperation while minimizing geopolitical tensions (Østhagen 2021), this balance is becoming more complex, especially as Arctic nations intensify their claims over the region's untapped resources. Amid ongoing claims and international court cases, there are signs that tensions may be gradually emerging in various cases, including that of the SC.

## 2.2. Norwegian management of the Snow Crab

The manner of introduction factors directly into Norway's obligations for managing the crab's presence in its waters. Initial assessments of the crab's appearance in the Barents Sea pointed to ballast water (therefore an unintentional introduction) as the most likely introduction pathway (Dvoretsky and Dvoretsky 2015; Jorstad and Jelmert 1997; Kuzmin et al., 1998, 1999). Nevertheless, later studies have suggested that natural expansion of the SC from Pacific waters was possible (Dahle et al., 2022) either as a result of larval dispersal or migration of benthic stages (Huserbråten et al., 2023). This implies a movement/migration from the Chukchi Sea, north of the Bering Strait, into the Barents Sea. In support of the natural expansion theory, Dahle et al. (2022) suggest that the genetic distance found between the Barents SC and the Greenland SC implies that the presence of the Barents SC might be attributable to natural range expansion from the Pacific. Such a suggestion invites further scrutiny and consideration of additional evidence and assessment. While future work may shed further light on the introduction pathway and thus conservation concerns on the invasion, its feeding behavior, particularly on benthic species, has triggered concerns on the composition of benthic invertebrate communities (Sundet and Bakanev, 2014; Sjøblom 2021; Jørgensen and Spiridonov 2013; Agnalt et al., 2011; Akvaplan Niva, 2022).

The shift from a human-vectored introduction to a natural range expansion matters under the semantics of the Convention for Biological Diversity's (CBD) obligations (CBD 2022; n.d.) for stemming further spread of invasive species; natural range expansions do not demand containment efforts for a newly present species. Moreover, the broader implications of managing species such as the SC extend into international conservation efforts, particularly in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). The BBNJ Agreement, adopted in 2023 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, emphasizes the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in ABNJ, yet much of the current dialogue focuses on the exploitation of marine genetic resources. Ensuring the preservation of intact marine ecosystems that supply these resources requires international agreements such as the BBNJ to address the externalities of resource exploitation, including the spread of invasive species. Without such comprehensive measures, conservation efforts risk being undermined by vested interests, which could compromise ecological sustainability and public benefits.

Norway, adhering to international agreements, commits to managing its fisheries based on the best available scientific knowledge. The Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (IMR) is the principal provider of this knowledge, offering scientific advice to administrative bodies. The Ministry of Trade and Fisheries (NFD) and the Directorate of Fisheries are pivotal in establishing access and technical regulations within the fisheries sector. Proposals for the upcoming year's fishery regulations are crafted by the Directorate and forwarded to the Ministry. Annually, a regulatory meeting convenes, bringing together stakeholders from research, industry, and administration, with the industry represented by various fishermen's associations, interest groups, and sales teams.

Since the onset of the fishery in 2012, which started as open access, the Norwegian Fisheries Directorate has been lacking a solid political or scientific foundation to formulate a comprehensive management plan for SC fishing. Nevertheless, the first technical regulations were

introduced in 2015, marking a proactive albeit preliminary step towards governance. These regulations stipulated specific requirements concerning gear (weekly trap maintenance) and minimum size (100 mm shell width) (Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet, 2015b) with the latter mirroring regulations in the Russian fishery, where the minimum size requirement was not established based on biological considerations for ensuring future recruitment but rather on market preferences for crabs of a particular size (Hvingel et al., 2017; Kvalvik 2021). This development in 2015 signaled a keen eagerness to capitalize on what was perceived as a new lucrative opportunity in the fishing industry, highlighting a rush to exploit this “new gold mine” under the constraints of emerging and yet-to-be-refined management practices.

The first biological consultation and quota determination for the SC in 2017 were grounded in the principle of sustainable harvesting. This decision was informed by preliminary evidence indicating limited impact on benthic ecosystems and potentially beneficial effects on the biomass of cod and other fish species, due to the SC serving as a food source and its role in mobilizing other biological materials from the seabed (Havforskningsinstituttet 2019). These considerations bolstered the endorsement of sustainable harvesting practices over ecological concerns pertaining to the invasion. Due to increasing population growth over time, IMR's biological recommendations have been adjusted upwards, especially after 2021, with a 95% confidence interval of the population biomass exceeding the maximum sustainable yield (Hjelset et al., 2023). This conservative approach reflects the lost access to the more abundant Russian continental shelf and a hope that the population will expand, regardless of potential consequences to existing benthic resources.

Thus far, the SC fishery has operated as an Olympic fishery, adhering to a first-come, first-serve basis with a collective TAC established for the entire fleet. This management style has attracted numerous vessels over time, leading to overcapacity, intense competition, and conflicts across fleet groups (Standal and Hersoug 2024). In the absence of clear user rights, fishers compete for the quota, leading to predictable losses. The season kicks off on the 1st of January, yet the closure of the fishery remains undecided, propelling efforts to maximize catch volumes swiftly before the cessation of fishing activities. This approach, aiming for rapid exploitation, diverges significantly from socially optimal strategies as known from fisheries economics (Clark 2010).

In contrast, most other major commercial fisheries in Norway are closed; individual quotas are provided to fishers to prevent overfishing and ensure stock sustainability. As of the time of the writing - mid-February 2024, merely 1.5 months following the season's start, over half of the annual quota had already been harvested (55%, or 5365 tonnes by February 16th), signaling a marked acceleration compared to previous years and underscoring the intensifying competitive nature of the fishery. For 2024, the total quota was set at 10,300 tonnes, reflecting a 2510 tonne increase from the previous year, aligning with recommendations from IMR marine scientists. From this total, 542 tonnes are reserved as part of a 10% quota flexibility to accommodate any overfishing from 2023, with fishers allocated the remaining quota of 9758 tonnes for the year.

The SC fishery is expected to close in the next fishing season of 2025 (January), so that participation becomes limited to a small group of Norwegian vessels (Regjeringen 2023). The objective is to enhance the profitability of the fishery while addressing the environmental issues that arise from overcrowding and excessive equipment in a confined space. According to a press release by the Ministry of Trade and Fisheries in late December 2023 (Regjeringen 2023), the measures to restrict participation will include a requirement for active involvement in the catch during two of the specified qualifying years (2020, 2021, 2022 until 16 May), along with the provision for applying for dispensation under stringent conditions for those who have invested in the sector. This conveys the current extent of clarity provided by the Ministry, with expectations for more detailed information to be released within 2024. Moreover, the press release outlines that 10% of the total quota will be
reserved for the capture of live SC. This arrangement allows vessels with a SC permit to harvest under an agreement with the onshore industry. In line with the IMR's recommendations to prolong the protection period for SC, the Ministry has decided to extend the conservation window by one month, which shall result in a conservation period from 1 July to 30 November, aimed at safeguarding the crabs during their shell-change phase and enhancing meat quality, thereby maximizing the catch's value. To address the environmental issues of lost gear and "ghost fishing," the Ministry has decided to reduce the maximum number of pots allowed in the SC fishery to 8000, down from 9000. This measure aims to enhance the fishery's performance by minimizing spatial conflicts within the fishery and in the broader area, particularly considering the presence of northern shrimp in the region. Additionally, this reduction is intended to lessen the environmental impact of the fishery.

## 3. Strong user rights in the emerging Barents Snow Crab fisheries

### 3.1. *Strong user rights at regional/national levels*

Despite extensive experience with well-managed fisheries under SURF principles, Norway has been slow to implement such principles for the SC fishery. This has had clear negative implications for the Norwegian fleet. Despite the gradual introduction of various regulations and the establishment of a TAC, the fishery still operates under a competitive, first-come-first-serve basis, leaving the **security of fishing rights** in a precarious state (Fig. 2). Norwegian fishers engaged in the SC fishery express concerns over the potential loss of their rights. As of December 2023, there was widespread anticipation for the new management plan that Norwegian authorities had been promising for months, if not years. Yet, the plan had not been released, contributing to significant unrest among fishers who faced uncertainty about their eligibility to fish starting January 2024, with proposed minimum requirements based on recent years' catch volumes. This ongoing "Race to Fish" within the SC fishery undermines the security and stability of the

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 2.** Schematic of user rights implications in the SC fishery: Interconnected dimensions of Security, Exclusivity and Durability.</figcaption></figure>
sector. The current system means that any operational setbacks, such as engine trouble, can lead to severe financial repercussions, as there is no provision for quota reallocation in the event of an accident (Fig. 2).

Similar to the security of fishing rights, the principles of durability and exclusivity, which are foundational to Strong User Rights in Fisheries (SURFs), face considerable uncertainty within the Barents Sea SC fishery. Exclusivity refers to the rights of fishers to harvest from the stock, which inversely correlates with the number of other fishers sharing the same rights. While the sedentary species designation in 2015 eliminated foreign vessels from competition and created some exclusivity for the Norwegian fishing sector as a whole, the lack of clear and exclusive harvesting rights at an individual level fuels the competitive rush to fish, diminishing the sense of security and stewardship among fishers (Fig. 2). Durability relates to the longevity and stability of these fishing rights. Russia and Norway watched the biomass grow from 1996 to 2012 through joint annual surveys, keeping the potential new fishery closed with an expectation of opening experimental fisheries that could be followed perhaps by stable long run commercial fisheries (Fig. 2). Their hand was instead forced in 2012 with unanticipated fishing pressure from EU vessels in the international waters of the Loophole. The significant fishing mortality applied at the invasion frontier from 2012 to 2015 was visibly reducing the spread of the crab west (Kaiser et al., 2018). Russia and Norway faced incentives to both join the fishing effort and control it; the 2015 sedentary species designation allowed for that control but challenged all assessments of stability for the international fishing community. The result has been years of costly legal disputes not only with displaced fishing vessels but also cooperative onshore processing operations with significant investments into the fishery (ICSID 2024) (Fig. 2).

Initial investments in fishing vessel capital were modest, evident from the relatively small active fleet size that dominated the early years of the fishery and the considerable average vessel age. This is likely to have reflected the original biological uncertainty of the new fishery. The subsequent exclusion of foreign vessels likely provided impetus for several Norwegian fishers to bolster investments in the SC fishery, only to find their rights—and, by extension, their livelihoods—vulnerable to annual reassessments and pending Norwegian regulatory decisions. This year-to-year insecurity discourages long-term planning and investment, leading to operational inefficiencies and, in some cases, financial ruin, as evidenced by several SC companies going bankrupt. This is in line with theory suggesting that without secure and enduring rights to the fruits of their labor, (fishing) actors are less likely to engage in productive activities, ultimately leading to diminished output or significant inefficiencies across the sector (Arnason and Runolfsson 2023b; Arnason 2000).

The Norwegian approach to this management of the SC, characterized by a reluctance to swiftly introduce and enforce comprehensive regulations, has been evident since as early as 2019–2020. The Directorate of Fisheries had openly stated that it deemed it necessary for the initial regulations to be fully operational before considering additional management interventions, resulting in the SC not being a priority in response to the 2019 directive for the evaluation of current regulations and the exploration of potential regulatory amendments (Fiskeridirektoratet 2019). This reflects a deliberate strategy by Norwegian authorities to delay decisive action and comprehensive management planning for the SC fishery. The consequence is a fishery marked by uncertainty and risk, awaiting a management framework that can secure future rights for those who have invested in it and/or have started to depend on it. This includes actors who have not had the time to enter into the fishery due to investments such as new vessel construction or vessel reconstruction (Kulseng 2023).

Norway's approach to securing long-term access rights to fishing grounds has been notably deficient, leaving not just Norwegian fishers but also onshore processors and international vessels in a precarious position regarding investment security. This lack of robust user rights starkly contrasts with the ideal of turning such rights into assets that

could serve as collateral for financing or a security for repaying borrowed capital, underscoring the financial vulnerabilities that have led to the bankruptcy of several SC companies. The economic health of the SC fishery is telling; in 2022, a significant portion of the fleet faced financial losses, with 16 out of 24 companies actively fishing for SC ending the year in the red (negative result before tax) and 10 out of the 24 facing a negative equity. Losses are not clearly due to increased entry, as they are also evident from the smaller fleet effort from 2015 to 2019, as described in the annual profitability surveys summarized in Table 1.

Moreover, these 24 companies, participating in the fishery either in 2022 or 2023, reported a total turnover of NOK 1.4 billion in 2022, yet faced a total operating loss of NOK -27.6 million and a total profit before tax of NOK -114.9 million (Nedrejord and Kulseng, 2023). Furthermore, the fleet is burdened with a staggering debt (Nedrejord and Kulseng, 2023), highlighting the financial strain on these operations. The depth of the debt issue is profound: while the equity stands at NOK 582 million, the total owed amounts to NOK 3.4 billion, with NOK 2.4 billion categorized as long-term debt (Nedrejord and Kulseng, 2023). This economic distress is not just a result of market forces but is intricately linked to the lack of secure and durable access rights, which discourages investment and compounds the risk of financial failure. Notably, the financial figures also include income from other fisheries, indicating that very few companies are able to rely solely on SC fishing as their source of income, although several, in practice, predominantly engage in crab fishing. Norwegian financial institutions have expressed concerns regarding the viability of investments in vessels exclusively dedicated to SC fishing. The relatively short season, typically spanning from January to April-May (at maximum), provides too narrow a basis for sustainable operations. As a result, these institutions have been hesitant to include vessels that exclusively target SC within their portfolios (Nedrejord and Kulseng, 2023). An intriguing aspect of potential interest to newly developing fisheries is that this hesitancy provides an unexpected attenuation of overcapitalization incentives due to race-to-fish pressures created by the Olympic fishery.

The financial struggles of several SC fishing companies (Klokeide 2024b) underscore the broader economic challenges facing the sector. These challenges are exacerbated by operational difficulties, dept, wage disputes, and scrutiny over ownership structures by Norwegian authorities. Concerns raised by the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries regarding potential circumvention of laws on foreign ownership highlight deeper issues within the sector. Questions about the influence of foreign entities and compliance with the Participant Act, which regulates ownership and control in the Norwegian fishing sector (Nedrejord 2024; Nærings- og, fiskeridepartementet, 2000), point to significant

<table><caption>**Table 1**

Financial overview for the Norwegian snow crab fleet, 2015–2019.</caption><thead><tr><th colspan="6">Average Vessel Profitability Survey Results, Norwegian Snow Crab Vessels (1000 NOK)</th></tr><tr><th>Year</th><th>2015</th><th>2016</th><th>2017</th><th>2018</th><th>2019</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Earnings</td><td>20820</td><td>42620</td><td>26887</td><td>27258</td><td>40476</td></tr><tr><td>Total operating costs</td><td>28240</td><td>49667</td><td>36357</td><td>36439</td><td>51248</td></tr><tr><td>Operating profit</td><td>-7420</td><td>-7047</td><td>-11471</td><td>-9182</td><td>-10772</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Ordinary profit before tax</strong></td><td><strong>-9564</strong></td><td><strong>-7977</strong></td><td><strong>-15562</strong></td><td><strong>-10396</strong></td><td><strong>-12599</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>Total number of Vessels in survey<sup>a</sup></strong></td><td><strong>6</strong></td><td><strong>7</strong></td><td><strong>9</strong></td><td><strong>7</strong></td><td><strong>7</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>

a Notice that this differs from the number of vessels selected. Refer to section “Documentation and Attachments” in the profitability surveys for a more thorough explanation of the methods considered for determining the number of vessels in a sample for a profitability survey (total and selected - see for example (Fiskeridirektoratet 2020)). Proportional-to-size allocation has been chosen for all vessels in the profitability surveys.

Source: Data from Norwegian Fisheries Directorate Vessel Profitability Surveys, 2015–2019, Vessel Group 14 (G22)). Available in: https://www.fiskeridir.no/Yrkesfiske/Tall-og-analyse/Loennsomhet/aarstabeller
regulatory and financial obstacles that need addressing. This situation underscores a critical juncture for the SC fishery, where financial health, regulatory compliance, and sustainability of access rights are all in question.

Despite these financial challenges and the **precarious security of rights**, IMR's TAC advice for 2024 suggested an increase to 10,300 tonnes, up by 2500 tonnes from 2023's TAC of 7790 tonnes, with 21 vessels participating. This recommendation is grounded in the substantial growth observed in the SC stock since the onset of the fishery, and expectation that the stock will continue to exceed MSY, ensuring its continued growth and stability over time (Havforskningsinstituttet 2022; Hjelset et al., 2023). The predicted potential for gains in the near future juxtaposes the sector's dire financial straits against the backdrop of potentially expanding fishing opportunities. Consistent anticipation of this as yet unrealized value has been a hallmark of the Norwegian approach to the SC fishery from the beginning, driving investments in spite of lacking rights structures. Quota increases have not been rooted in consistent management strategies over time; rather, they appear more spontaneous, based on observations indicating potential growth of the stock to the North and the West, for which evidence exists (Siikavuopio et al. 2017, 2019; Hjelset et al., 2023; Hogrenning 2023). This approach suggests that while the immediate prospects for the fishery might seem promising due to the increased quotas, the underlying management practices lack the stability and predictability needed to support long-term planning and investment in the sector.

The uncertainty surrounding SC fishing has led to significant frustration among industry entrepreneurs, primarily due to the absence of clear management directives. Throughout 2023, and especially towards the end of the year, fishers have been struggling to plan for the upcoming season. This planning challenge is exacerbated by the Ministry's decision to delay the fishery's closure (to a limited group of participants) until 2025. A substantial segment of the SC industry has been vocal in demanding the closure of the fishery, which currently operates on an "Olympic race" basis. The anticipated closure is seen as a crucial step for SC companies to alleviate a significant portion of their debt and to enhance the value of SC permits. This, in turn, is expected to facilitate easier refinancing options for these companies.

The discourse on alternative management schemes continues among various fisheries stakeholders and scholars, with no final implementation yet from official management authorities. Standal and Hersoug (2024) summarize these alternatives into the following main models: The first is the **Olympic fishery with open access**, which resembles today's situation and is characterized by fleet specialization potential though leading to overcapacity, environmental issues such as ghost fishing and higher control costs. The second model is the **Olympic fishery with closed access**, limiting participation to vessels with recent fishing history, toward which Norwegian management authorities are currently leaning. This model will benefit the most efficient vessels, possibly reducing administrative burden but maintaining strong competition and gear conflicts. The third option is a Closed fishery with Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQs), where quotas are allocated based on catch history or vessel size. The catch history option most prominently considered for the SC fishery implies that the most efficient vessels maintain their position, with gear conflicts and ghost fishing likely decreasing. Standal and Hersoug (2024) also suggest that these IVQs could also be transferable, leading to a reduced fleet size and improved profitability for remaining vessels; nevertheless, this is not a formal part of the current management discourse. A more discussed model is the Combined closed and open access, which allocates fixed quotas to efficient vessels while allowing new/smaller entrants access to a portion of the TAC (see also Klokeide and Hage (2024)). This provides additional income for vessels in other fisheries but likely increases control costs and environmental problems, possibly also overcapacity. Lastly, the Public auction of available quotas model mimics the Norwegian aquaculture system and secures resource rent for the state but increases risk and reduces technical development for operators while raising

administrative burdens. Each of these models presents unique challenges and benefits, highlighting the complexity of achieving a sustainable and profitable management regime for the SC fishery.

## 3.2. *Strong user rights at the international level*

The security, exclusivity, and durability of fishing rights for SC vessels in Norway are complicated by international legal disputes and the invasion's potential impacts, which may necessitate changes to Norway's harvest strategies. The ongoing legal battle of Norway with the EU on property rights for the SC, particularly concerning the 2017 arrest of a Latvian vessel, exemplifies these complexities. Although Norway appears to be winning the legal and arbitration battle (ICSID 2024), the issue remains unresolved at the European Union level, with new cases surfacing.<fnref n="2" />

Securing national quotas is a fundamental prerequisite for establishing secure individual quotas at the vessel level (Bjørndal 2023). If Norway cannot secure national SC quotas due to legal confrontations with EU member states and private entities, it undermines the stability of SURFs. This interconnection between national quota security and the individual vessel rights highlights the broader implications of international disputes on domestic fisheries management. Additional instability arises from variations in stock distribution and migration patterns, driven by climate and environmental shifts (Bjørndal 2023). The SC's gradual expansion towards the north and west, encroaching upon the Svalbard region, further complicates matters due to differing interpretations of the 1920s Svalbard Treaty between Norway and the EU. These evolving conditions underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that accommodate ecological shifts and geopolitical nuances.

The economic impacts on SURFs are influenced by stakeholder reactions to altered conditions. Norway's dilution of user rights with the EU has incurred substantial costs, including prolonged idleness of the Latvian vessel, struggling investments in land infrastructure (i.e. operational stability of processing facilities in Båtsfjord), and decreased employment. Legal and enforcement costs also contribute to the economic burden. Legal costs borne by those contesting Norway's enforcement of property rights, alongside enforcement, arbitration, and other related expenses, also contribute to the economic burden. Employment uncertainties cast further shadow over the future of SC fishing. The lack of clear and consistent regulations not only jeopardizes the livelihoods of Norwegian fishers but also impacts foreign crew members, highlighting the international dimension of this issue. For example, an inspection of a major SC fishing vessel, prompted by a tragic incident where a crew member fell overboard and died in January 2023, revealed an unexpectedly large proportion of foreign crew members.<fnref n="3" /> This situation calls for clearer regulations and stronger SURFs to stabilize the industry and protect all involved livelihoods, regardless of nationality.

# 4. Ecological considerations in shaping strong user rights

The ambiguity and uncertainty surrounding the ecological impacts of the invasive SC, coupled with differences in efficiency across fishing fleets complicates implementation of SURFs. The IMR acknowledges

<footnote n="2">² This situation echoes the broader context of investment disputes, like a recent one involving a Moldovan investor's company in Spain, which faced significant legal hurdles due to the revocation of fishing permits, highlighting the intricate dynamics of international investment and the ongoing nature of such disputes (BOTTEGA DI BELLA, 2023).</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³ The Directorate of Fisheries found that less than half of this vessel's crew resided in Norwegian coastal or neighboring municipalities, and that out of a 20-person crew, only seven were meeting the residency requirement (Klokeide 2024a).</footnote>
over time the negative ecological impacts but does not explicitly consider them in its quota advice. In fact, there is a shift towards reinterpreting the SC's presence as a natural expansion of its native range, possibly facilitated by climate change, rather than as an invasion (Dahle et al., 2014; Hjelset et al., 2023). This reclassification, while not refuted by genetic evidence, invites scrutiny over the interpretation's validity and the adequacy of the evidence in excluding human pathways for introduction. The reinterpretation from an invasion to a species expanding its range on its own could ease Norway's adherence to international environmental commitments, such as the CBD, by downplaying the invasive aspect and the country's associated responsibilities for conservation and thus keeping SC populations down.

This urge for reclassification, alongside limited concerns at the onset of the fishery for ecological impacts from the invasion (ie see Anisimova et al., 2016 in ICES 2016) and coupled with a lack of more robust evidence at the time, facilitates a paradigm shift towards recognizing the SC as a valuable resource that needs to be sustained and even expanded, rather than a threat to the ecosystem. Concurrently, ongoing research continues to provide insights into the crab's ecological impacts, such as its variable effects on benthic production and trophic/ecosystem interactions, food web structure and energy flows (Holte et al., 2022; Quijon and Snelgrove, 2005; Lutz-Collins et al., 2016; Pedersen et al., 2018; Oug et al., 2018; Gebruk et al., 2021 - see also recent and ongoing work from the EISA project - Akvaplan Niva, 2022 or ongoing work of the joint Norwegian/Russia ecosystem survey in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters - IMR/PINRO (2022)). Recent studies have uncovered that SC populations impact benthic catch production variably, consuming only about 4% in high-density areas and between 8 and 19% in regions of lower benthic productivity. Such findings illustrate the crab's potential spread and reliance on food availability (Holte et al., 2022), and underscore the complexity of its ecological impact, but do not explicitly inform on the impact of SC grazing on the benthic environment's structure and its broader effects on the ecosystem.

Earlier studies suggest that the predation pressure that the SC exerts may impact existing ecological interactions through changes in the composition of benthic invertebrate communities (ie as demonstrated through studies on Canadian SC populations - Quijon and Snelgrove, 2005; Lutz-Collins et al., 2016 or through studies on other invasive large benthic decapods in the Barents Sea - Oug et al., 2018). Additionally, there is evidence linking the SC to benthic biomass fluctuations, highlighting its potential influence on benthic ecosystems (Jørgensen and Vee 2024). Other studies with a focus in the Barents Sea have indicated that there may be potential effects of the SC on trophic interactions (Gebruk et al., 2021), food web structure and energy flow (Pedersen et al., 2018).

In general, the SC is known to have a wider trophic niche compared to native species, which allows it to exploit a broader range of food sources and compete effectively with native benthic predators. Additionally, evidence from the south-eastern portion of the Barents (Pechora Sea) suggests that if its density and distribution continue to expand, the structure and functioning of the benthic ecosystem could be at risk (Gebruk et al., 2021). Despite these potential ecological risks, there are also presumed positive impacts. For example, the SC has become an increasingly valuable food source for cod, now constituting the most dominant demersal crustacean species in the cod diet (Holt et al., 2021). This shift may benefit cod populations by providing a new, abundant prey item. Further, cross-correlation analyses in Dvoretsky and Dvoretsky (2015), for instance, indicate that the SC has not negatively affected fish populations in the Barents Sea. Additionally, considering the vulnerability of Arctic marine biodiversity, particularly in the face of rapid climate shifts (Dvoretsky and Dvoretsky 2024), it has been suggested that the SC may play a role in enhancing biodiversity through the spread of attached fauna, such as the Arctic bryozoan *Uschakovia gorbunovi*. The migration of the SC could have extended the range of this bryozoan, potentially offering some ecological benefits. Bryozoans are known to contribute to the formation of temperate and

tropical carbonate sediments and serve as a food source for other marine species, highlighting their potential ecological importance (Evseeva and Dvoretsky 2024).

The reclassification has been preceded, as early as 2014, by the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries acknowledging that eradication of the rapidly spreading SC population was both unrealistic and impractical (Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet, 2014). While the difficulties of eradication align with the broader challenge of managing aquatic invasions, especially in marine environments, the Ministry's decision to forego any level of control or other conservation measure in favor of sustainable harvesting (Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet, 2014) reflects the intention to prioritize expected benefits of the SC fisheries over uncertain ecological losses. Additionally, in Norway the management strategy for SC was initially marked with a goal of 0 labeled as "Unresolved/Unclear" (in the stock table), a classification that reflected the prevailing uncertainties and a limited understanding of the species and its ecosystem impacts. Without further ecological evidence/considerations, it was subsequently determined that the SC should be managed with an emphasis on sustainable harvesting, to help foster value creation for society while pursuing two key objectives: a) the maximization of long-term catch yield, and b) the reduction of the risk of adverse ecosystem effects. Reflecting primary objective a), the management goal for SC shifted from 0 to 2 in 2019 (stock table), indicating a high priority status with an aim towards achieving a stable, long-term yield (Fiskeridirektoratet 2019).

The mixed evidence regarding the SC's ecological impacts highlights the need for a refined understanding of its ecological role. This uncertainty presents conflicting signals to fishery stakeholders, complicating the reinforcement of strong user rights in this fishery. Given the time-intensive nature of ecological research, delays in confirming significant ecological damage could pose risks to both Arctic habitats and future fishery investments. This highlights the importance of cautious, well-informed management decisions in the face of ecological uncertainties (Kaiser et al., 2018). While the fishery itself may play a role in limiting the SC's spread by controlling adult crab migration, the challenge is more complex. The spread is not solely dependent on adult movement but is also driven by the dispersal of pelagic larvae, as seen for example with the Red King Crab (Pedersen et al., 2006). To date, there is limited research on the larval and juvenile stages of these crabs and their potential for distribution through ocean currents. It is a relatively new area of study that requires more research investment to fully understand. Current knowledge, particularly from studies on the Red King Crab, suggests that their wide environmental tolerance at both larval and adult stages enables them to continue expanding their range, including northward into Svalbard waters (Michelsen 2017). Additionally, recent work indicates that, at least in the case of the Red King Crab, larval stages are key in determining the spread as well as the recruitment of their population (Dvoretsky and Dvoretsky 2022).

In addressing the complexities surrounding the SC fishery within the framework of ecological uncertainties and the current management practices that do not explicitly account for these impacts, several critical questions arise. It is essential to evaluate the sustainability of Norway's fishing levels against the backdrop of the SC's distribution, especially considering that Norway conducts systematic surveys of the population in only a limited area (Fig. 1). This evaluation must also incorporate the uncertainties surrounding the ecological impacts of the SC, as these uncertainties influence both the management decisions and the long-term sustainability of the fishery. Addressing these unknowns is critical to ensuring that any management plan is adaptable to emerging ecological evidence. Such an evaluation is also critical in determining the capacity for new entrants, especially European vessels, to contribute to managing or reducing the stock to an ecologically sustainable level, considering invasion losses. The potential inclusion of possibly more cost-effective European vessels, currently excluded from the fishery, begs a reevaluation of SURFs to possibly widen access beyond Norwegian vessels, thereby addressing both the efficiency of limiting the SC's
population and spread and the economic dynamics of the fishery.

In this context, understanding the proximity of current harvest levels to the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and/or Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) could clarify the potential for expanding the fishery to include more participants. This analysis becomes even more pertinent when considering the ecological impacts of the SC invasion on these calculations. We are referring to expansion to non-Norwegian actors because, despite a significant interest from Norwegian companies to fish for SC as demonstrated by the surge of companies registering for future fishing rights and access, active and systematic fishing is currently limited to about 19 vessels. Answering how the inclusion of ecological damages from the invasion might alter MSY/MEY calculations becomes essential in this context. Should the ecological losses be substantial, it may necessitate a reduction in the optimal stock levels; conversely, minimal damages could support a higher stock level (Fig. 3).

Drawing parallels from the Barents Sea Red King Crab (RKC) case, where cultural assimilation and shifting research priorities led to the protection of an invasive species due to economic dependence, underscores the complexity of managing such invasions (Kourantidou and Kaiser 2019, 2021). This dependency also impacts the fishing of traditional regional resources, such as cod in Eastern Finnmark, a fishery challenged by RKC bycatches, indicating the necessity for early and thoughtful consideration of path dependencies in long-term management plans. The RKC experience, although different in many ways, illustrates the importance of proactive, long-term management strategies that account for ecological uncertainties and avoid the pitfalls of short-term, reactive approaches. Such well-informed strategies can help navigate uncertainties and ensure the health of the ecosystem to the degree possible and the economic viability of the fishery or at a minimum, secure interests of those investing in the fishery.

A baseline alternative that emerges from this involves more direct intervention by regulatory authorities to reduce SC populations. This could for example include expanding quotas significantly to lower SC densities, thereby reducing ecological impact or risk. Regulatory authorities might also consider compensating fishers for increased harvests to ensure economic viability during the reduction phase. This approach would require careful weighing of costs against the critical ecological impacts of the SC invasion. However, it is important to note that compensating fishers could lead to adverse conservation incentives, similar to bounties, which are often unsuccessful in managing invasive species as highlighted in the literature (Kourantidou et al., 2022;

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3.** Illustration of the basic bioeconomic model for the SC in a hypothetical fishery setting (with stock dependent damages, D(X), perceived as linear and population growth assumed as logistic).</figcaption></figure>

Skonhoft and Kourantidou 2021) and partly evidenced from the Red King Crab management west of 26°E, which has included bounty payments.

In addition to ecological damages from the invasion, lost fishing gear, specifically crab pots, has emerged as a severe ecological problem in recent years, likely tied to weak regulation, management and SURFs or more broadly challenges to self-reporting and possibly unreported fishing activity as seen in other areas (Hebert et al., 2001). The trend in gear loss, as reported by the Directorate of Fisheries, reveals a concerning escalation, with the rate of SC pots retrieved doubling from 1200 in 2019 to 2400 in 2020. This pattern of increase, following a notable cleanup effort that collected 8600 pots in 2018 (with about 98% of crabs alive), underscores the growing challenge of managing gear loss within the fishery, suggesting a pressing need for intervention despite the initially high retrieval figures (Hjelset et al., 2023; Langedal and Kalvenes 2018; Humborstad et al., 2021). This context further complicates the management of the SC fishery, potentially emphasizing the need to assign responsibility for gear loss and retrieval to mitigate ecological harm, which may be achieved through strengthening user rights in this fishery (Dsolve 2023).

SURFs and market mechanisms can play a significant role in managing resources sustainably and adapting to new discoveries and shifts in prices. The SC fishery is another case where these mechanisms can contribute to long-term, effective responses. Strong user rights can help align the economic incentives of fishers with sustainable management practices, ensuring that both ecological and economic objectives are met. An additional emerging issue that has made it difficult for Norwegian management authorities to implement a clear plan is their dilemma of choosing between planning a fleet structure which supports specialization and maximum economic profit or using the potential resource rent to support more vessels to increase employment in fisheries-dependent areas. This complexity introduces conflicting policy goals, such as securing economic efficiency versus increasing employment, within the framework of the TAC regime (Standal and Hersoug 2024).

## 5. Discussion and conclusions

The governance of new fisheries resources, emerging in new locations either due to anthropogenic introductions or due to shifting environmental conditions, presents a complex array of challenges. These challenges are accentuated when the distribution of such resources spans across national borders or into international waters. The case of the Barents SC, characterized as a sedentary resource entangled in property rights disputes and demonstrating a gradual expansion towards the north and west, towards Svalbard, serves as a prime example of these governance complexities. This situation is further complicated by the contentious debate over the interpretation of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty between Norway and the European Union, illustrating the multifaceted nature of international fisheries management and the critical need for clear, cooperative governance frameworks.

The existing literature has thus far predominantly focused on SURF issues within pelagic fisheries and the principle of Zonal Attachment, which plays a critical role in determining national user rights (Bjørndal 2023). Our study extends the discussion to benthic resources attached to the continental shelf. The experience with pelagic fisheries in the North East Atlantic, where user rights (quota shares) remain ill-defined due to changes in Zonal Attachment, underscores the need for a nuanced examination of continental shelf resources/fisheries. Additionally, incorporating the concerns about gear loss into the discussion on SURFs and the SC management highlights several pivotal questions regarding sustainability, economic efficiency, and ecological impact. These questions about Norway's fishing practices, the sustainability of current harvest levels, the potential for additional participants in the fishery, and the broader ecological consequences of the SC's spread emphasize the need for a nuanced approach to SURFs. An additional insight we introduce
concerns the economic efficiency within the SC fisheries, particularly how lower harvesting costs (ie of European vessels), compared to Norwegian ones, could influence strategies for managing the SC's expansion. This consideration suggests the potential for bioeconomic modeling to connect harvesting costs with market supply and sustainable management practices, providing valuable insights for future research and policy development within the context of SURFs.

The SC, with its status as an invasive species and its consequent ecological impacts, underscores the pressing need for well-defined access rights. These rights are paramount not only for the effective management of the crab's population and distribution but also for encouraging stakeholders to adopt sustainable practices and to commit to further research into understanding the crab's ecological ramifications. However, the distinctive circumstances surrounding the SC case, such as its rapid expansion and the legal disputes regarding its classification and the rights to harvest it, pose significant challenges to the direct application of SURFs. This necessitates a bespoke approach, one that meticulously considers the ecological, economic, and legal dimensions inherent to the SC fishery. The application of SURFs in this context is not just about establishing control and sustainability within the fishery; it is also about navigating the complex interplay of international legal disputes and the unpredictable shifts in marine ecosystems driven by climate change.

Strengthening user rights brings about various additional implications not extensively elaborated upon here, such as market effects. A change (i.e. increase) in crab supply volume could benefit consumers through lower prices but potentially harm producers, particularly notable in the absence of Alaskan crab from the market, following the recent collapse of the Alaska SC stock (Szuwalski et al., 2023). This dynamic underlines the importance of addressing property rights issues and conflicts promptly to enhance the profitability of the fishery. Delay in defining user rights, coupled with allowing an unregulated fishery, can lead to resource rent losses, despite potential benefits to other ecosystem dimensions, such as invasive species management. Additionally, the Alaskan Red King Crab fishery, which has also faced limitations in recent years (limited availability and small quota), further influences the Barents Sea crab markets. The reduced supply from Alaska has driven higher global demand and raised prices for both species, impacting market performance and the Barents Sea fishery.

Moreover, the case of the SC underscores the urgent need for coordination on goals and expectations. The ongoing research by IMR and other Norwegian entities to understand ecosystem impacts from the invasion, juxtaposed with the Ministry of Fisheries' regulatory measures to limit participation to just a few players, illustrates the confusion and lack of coordination among stakeholders. This confusion hampers investment in the fishery and associated coastal infrastructure, highlighting a disconnect between ecological research and regulatory action. Furthermore, at present it appears unlikely that Norway could be willing to permit access to non-Norwegian fisheries stakeholders, even though their harvesting costs may be lower, thus holding potential to contribute efficiently to minimizing the spread. Part of this unwillingness stems from the broader geopolitical implications that come from the "sedentary species" designation, rather than specific fisheries concerns (Østhagen 2021; Kaiser et al., 2018).

We suggest that ecological research efforts could focus on increasing confidence in improving insight into the ecological impacts and reducing the mixed signals surrounding them. At the same time, an informed understanding of potential losses, such as benthic ecosystem damage, could inform more precise spatial management strategies designed to address complex geopolitical impacts resulting from decisions over user rights. This could include defining user rights to target specific areas of SC distribution rather than allowing unrestricted fishing, with an emphasis on areas where ecological damage is of particular concern. Incorporating the SC's ecological role into management strategies will be crucial for establishing appropriate spatial measures.

Despite the general sentiment of SURFs being mostly beneficial as

they promote sustainable fishing practices and economic stability by incentivizing fishers to invest in the long-term health of fisheries, this perspective is nuanced and highly dependent on specific ecological and social contexts. For instance, in the case of the SC, an invasive species that is a simultaneous nuisance and valuable resource (Kourantidou et al., 2022), the impact of SURFs reveals a complex picture where benefits such as the aforementioned are not universally applicable. This complexity and context dependency is in line with the SURFs literature, which highlights the importance of considering each case's specific circumstances and the need for comprehensive data to fully understand impacts, particularly social ones (Arnason and Runolfsson, 2023a, 2023b; Jensen 2023). The ambiguity in outcomes demonstrated in this paper underscores the importance of considering ecological details and the unique characteristics of each fishery when implementing SURFs.

Additionally, in this study, we refrain from delving into the specifics of how fishing opportunities for new fisheries without historical precedence should be allocated, despite acknowledging the significance of this debate, particularly concerning equity dimensions (Kourantidou et al., 2021; Oostdijk et al., 2024). This omission does not suggest that we support integration of these opportunities into the existing quota system or base them on fishing history dating back to the early days of the open-access SC fishery. The conversation around the allocation of fishing opportunities is vital and distinct, focusing on different priorities, including equity considerations by the managing authorities (in this instance Norwegian authorities) and the potential economic implications for these authorities, such as tax income. For example, the auction system implemented in the newly established mackerel fishery in the Faroe Islands has seen prices reach as high as 70%-80% of the mackerel's landed value, significantly exceeding the considerably lower landing fees (Ellefsen and Bromley 2021). Our study does not explore these aspects in detail, recognizing their importance but acknowledging they fall outside our research scope.

Moving forward, it is imperative for Norwegian authorities to address SURF related challenges head-on and in a proactive, transparent manner. This involves not only clarifying ownership and control regulations but also disentangling ecological uncertainties and establishing a framework for secure, long-term access rights. Timely and well-informed decision-making is essential for safeguarding the economic viability of Norwegian fishermen and ensuring sustainable investment in the fishery. Interdisciplinary collaboration between ecology and economics offers greater benefits than political decisions alone, helping to ensure that the risks posed by the SC invasion to both economic resilience and ecosystem values are effectively mitigated. Implementing these strategies will provide the stability and confidence needed to support sustainable investment in the fishery and navigate the complex ecological and legal landscape of the Barents Sea SC fishery. Without decisive action, the fishery risks continued financial instability and the erosion of valuable economic and environmental resources, underscoring the need for a clear governance framework that embraces the complex realities of modern fisheries management.

### CRediT authorship contribution statement

**Melina Kourantidou:** Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Resources, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. **Brooks A. Kaiser:** Writing – review & editing, Visualization, Resources, Methodology, Investigation.

### Funding sources

MK has received funding for this work from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 899546.
Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Data availability

No data was used for the research described in the article.

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