# Insensitivity of alkenone carbon isotopes to atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> at low to moderate CO<sub>2</sub> levels

Marcus Badger, Thomas B. Chalk, Gavin Foster, Paul Bown, Samantha

Gibbs, Philip Sexton, Daniela Schmidt, Heiko Pälike, Andreas Mackensen, Richard Pancost

► To cite this version:

Marcus Badger, Thomas B. Chalk, Gavin Foster, Paul Bown, Samantha Gibbs, et al.. Insensitivity of alkenone carbon isotopes to atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> at low to moderate CO<sub>2</sub> levels. Climate of the Past, 2019, 15 (2), pp.539-554. 10.5194/cp-15-539-2019 hal-04707823

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# Insensitivity of alkenone carbon isotopes to atmospheric CO₂ at low to moderate CO₂ levels

Marcus P. S. Badger<fnref n="1" />,<fnref n="2" />, Thomas B. Chalk<fnref n="3" />,<fnref n="4" />, Gavin L. Foster<fnref n="3" />, Paul R. Bown<fnref n="5" />, Samantha J. Gibbs<fnref n="3" />, Philip F. Sexton<fnref n="1" />, Daniela N. Schmidt<fnref n="6" />,<fnref n="7" />, Heiko Pälike<fnref n="8" />, Andreas Mackensen<fnref n="9" />, and Richard D. Pancost<fnref n="2" />,<fnref n="7" />

**Correspondence:** Marcus P. S. Badger (marcus.badger@open.ac.uk)

Received: 5 November 2018 – Discussion started: 7 November 2018

Revised: 19 February 2019 – Accepted: 13 March 2019 – Published: 27 March 2019

**Abstract.** Atmospheric *pCO₂* is a critical component of the global carbon system and is considered to be the major control of Earth's past, present, and future climate. Accurate and precise reconstructions of its concentration through geological time are therefore crucial to our understanding of the Earth system. Ice core records document *pCO₂* for the past 800 kyr, but at no point during this interval were *CO₂* levels higher than today. Interpretation of older *pCO₂* has been hampered by discrepancies during some time intervals between two of the main ocean-based proxy methods used to reconstruct *pCO₂*: the carbon isotope fractionation that occurs during photosynthesis as recorded by haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and the boron isotope composition (δ¹¹B) of foraminifer shells. Here, we present alkenone and δ¹¹B-based *pCO₂* reconstructions generated from the same samples from the Pliocene and across a Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycle at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 999. We find a muted response to *pCO₂* in the alkenone record compared to contemporaneous ice core and δ¹¹B records, suggesting caution in the interpretation of alkenone-based records at low *pCO₂* levels. This is possibly caused by the physiology of *CO₂* uptake in the haptophytes. Our new understanding resolves some of the inconsistencies between the

proxies and highlights that caution may be required when interpreting alkenone-based reconstructions of *pCO₂*.

## 1 Introduction

Understanding the absolute level and evolution of atmospheric *pCO₂* through geological time is essential to our understanding of the Earth's climate system. As both a fundamental first-order control and a contributor to multiple dynamic feedbacks, atmospheric *pCO₂* is critical in setting Earth's surface temperature (Lacis et al., 2010). Reconstructing *pCO₂* evolution improves the understanding of both the mechanisms behind past climate change (Chalk et al., 2017) and provides novel constraints on climate sensitivities (PALAEOSENS, 2012; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). This then allows ground truthing of our understanding the climate and the Earth system models that are used for predicting future climate change.

Over the past two decades, two common marine-based CO₂ proxies have emerged – alkenone-based εₚ values (CO₂(εₚ-alk)), utilizing the carbon isotopic fractionation imparted during photosynthesis in a subgroup of haptophytes

<footnote n="1">¹School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="2">²Organic Geochemistry Unit, School of Chemistry, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TS, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA</footnote>

<footnote n="5">⁵Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="6">⁶School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷The Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK</footnote>

<footnote n="8">⁸MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany</footnote>

<footnote n="9">⁹Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Alten Hafen 26, Bremerhaven, Germany</footnote>
(Bidigare et al., 1997), and planktic foraminiferal $\delta^{11}$B values ($CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$), based on the pH control of boron spe-ciation and isotopic fractionation in seawater (Hemming and Hanson, 1992). Multiple records of atmospheric $pCO_2$ now exist for the Cenozoic from both methods, showing a broadly similar long-term trend from a high-$CO_2$ greenhouse world of the early Cenozoic, when $CO_2$ exceeded 400 µatm and may have been higher than 1000 µatm, to a low-$CO_2$ bipo-lar glaciated world of the Late Pleistocene, when $CO_2$ fell to below 300 µatm (Pagani et al., 2005, 2011; Pearson et al., 2009; Anagnostou et al., 2016; Foster et al., 2017; Sosdian et al., 2018; Super et al., 2018).

However, discrepancies have recently become apparent between both methods when applied to the last 20 Ma (Bad-ger et al., 2013a, b). Specifically, the $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ reconstruc-tions often suggest a lower magnitude of short-term $pCO_2$ change compared to that from $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ (Badger et al., 2013b). Whilst this could be partially explained by mis-matches between the sampling intervals, or by the influ-ence of local surface water disequilibrium with the atmo-sphere with respect to $CO_2$, this discrepancy remains even for records generated from exactly the same sediment sam-ples (Badger et al., 2013b vs. Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). Both the $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ and $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ have been used to estimate Earth system sensitivity in the Pliocene with differ-ing results, with $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ suggesting a higher-than-present Earth system sensitivity Pliocene (7–10 °C per $CO_2$ dou-bling; Pagani et al., 2009), whilst $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ records sen-sitivity in line with our estimates for today (<5 °C per $CO_2$ doubling; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). Although this is at least partly due to the different approaches used to calculate Earth system sensitivity in the two studies, it is also due to the dif-ferences in reconstructed $pCO_2$ from the two approaches.

The $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ and $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ palaeobarometers are both based on mechanistic frameworks that have been cali-brated in either the modern ocean or laboratory culture (Bidi-gare et al., 1997; Hemming and Hanson, 1992; Sanyal and Hemming, 1996; Pagani et al., 2002). These proxies can be further ground truthed in the recent geological past, when ice core records provide high-quality $pCO_2$ data for the last 800 kyr (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1). In previous work, both $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ (Sanyal et al., 1995; Hönisch and Hem-ming, 2005; Foster, 2008; Henehan et al., 2013; Foster and Sexton, 2014; Chalk et al., 2017) and $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ (Jasper and Hayes, 1990) have yielded $pCO_2$ records similar in abso-lute value and amplitude of change to those derived from ice cores. However, the emerging discrepancies between the two methods (Badger et al., 2013a, b; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015) necessitate revisiting this validation, both between the two proxies and between marine proxy and ice core reconstruc-tions.

The ice cores record the $pCO_2$ of the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1) and provide an opportunity for cross-calibrating proxy methods for determining atmospheric $pCO_2$ in the geological archive

$(CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk))$ and $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ with the direct-$CO_2$ mea-surements from the ice cores.

## Study site

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 999 is located in the Caribbean Sea (12°44.639′N, 78°44.360′W; 2838 m water depth; Fig. 1), has an orbitally calibrated age model, and has been used previously for $CO_2$ reconstructions. Our temporal sampling resolution is ~6 kyr in the Pleistocene and ~9 kyr in the Pliocene. Although $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ and $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ are independent of one another in many respects, they both rely on assumptions about the equilibrium of surface seawater with the atmosphere with respect to $CO_2$, sea surface tem-perature, and on well-constrained age models, which can make direct comparison between records from different sites difficult. Here, we overcome these problems by producing $CO_2(\epsilon_p-alk)$ and $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ records from identical hori-zons in the same deep-ocean sediment core in (1) the late Pleistocene, permitting direct comparison to ice core data (Figs. 2a, 3), and (2) across the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (INHG) in the Pliocene (Seki et al., 2010; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015) (Fig. 2b).

In terms of $CO_2$, ODP Site 999 in the Caribbean Sea is today slightly out of equilibrium with the atmosphere, with surface waters a little oversaturated in $CO_2$, providing a small net source of $CO_2$ to the atmosphere (~21 µatm; Takahashi et al., 2009). However, the site has been shown to be suitable for recording past changes in $pCO_2$ (Foster, 2008; Foster and Sexton, 2014) and the air-sea equilibrium is not thought to have changed significantly from the Pliocene to today (see discussion in Bartoli et al., 2011). It is one of few sites where both alkenone and boron isotope records can be ac-quired given the good preservation of both foraminifera and organic matter (Foster, 2008; Badger et al., 2013b; Foster and Sexton, 2014; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015), and Pliocene records of both are available (Bartoli et al., 2011; Badger et al., 2013b; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). It also has been demonstrated previously to record glacial-interglacial cycles of pH / $CO_2$ (Foster, 2008; Henehan et al., 2013) and a Pleis-tocene $CO_2(\delta^{11}\text{Bplank})$ record from 0 to 250 ka has been re-cently published (Chalk et al., 2017).

# 2 Methods

## 2.1 Alkenone isotopes

Our new alkenone-based $CO_2$ record was calculated follow-ing Badger et al. (2013b), with modern-day phosphate used in the estimation of the “b” term, $U_{37}^{K'}$, temperatures, and modern-day salinity (35 psu). Samples were freeze dried, ground to a fine powder by hand, and extracted by Soxh-let apparatus using a dichloromethane (DCM) / methanol azeotrope (2 : 1, v/v) refluxing for 24 h. Total lipid extracts were divided into three fractions (F) by small (4 cm) sil-
<table><caption>**Table 1.** Sources of ice core data used throughout, as compiled by Bereiter et al. (2015).</caption><thead><tr><td>Age interval (kyr)</td><td>Ice core location</td><td>Reference</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>-0.051-1.8</td><td>Law Dome</td><td>Rubino et al. (2013)</td></tr><tr><td>1.8-2</td><td>Law Dome</td><td>MacFarling Meure et al. (2006)</td></tr><tr><td>2-11</td><td>Dome C</td><td>Monnin et al. (2001, 2004)</td></tr><tr><td>11-22</td><td>WAIS</td><td>Marcott et al. (2014)</td></tr><tr><td>22-40</td><td>Siple Dome</td><td>Ahn and Brook (2014)</td></tr><tr><td>40-60</td><td>TALDICE</td><td>Bereiter et al. (2012)</td></tr><tr><td>60-115</td><td>EDML</td><td>Bereiter et al. (2012)</td></tr><tr><td>105-155</td><td>Dome C Sublimation</td><td>Schneider et al. (2013)</td></tr><tr><td>155-393</td><td>Vostok</td><td>Petit et al. (1999)</td></tr></tbody></table>

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 1.** Site map with locations of sites discussed the text.</figcaption></figure>

ica chromatography columns, with fractions eluting in 3 mL of *n*-hexane (*F*1), DCM (*F*2), and ethyl acetate /*n*-hexane (1:3, *v*: *v*, *F*3), respectively. Alkenones are eluted in *F*2. Alkenone identification was confirmed by gas chromatography (GC) mass spectrometry (ThermoQuest Trace MS, He carrier gas). Alkenone isotope analyses were performed using a Thermo Fisher Delta V connected via a GC isolink and ConFlo IV to a Trace GC. The GC oven was programmed to increase in temperature from 70 to 200 °C at 20 °C min⁻¹, then to 300 °C at 6 °C min⁻¹ and held isothermal for 25 min. Conversion to Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB) was performed by reference to a laboratory standard gas of known δ¹³C and system performance was monitored using in-house fatty acid methyl ester and *n*-alkane standard mixtures of known isotopic composition. Long-term precision is approximately 0.3‰. To estimate sea surface temperature (SST), the *F*2 fraction was also analysed by GC-flame ionization detection (Hewlett Packard 5890 Series II), and the GC oven was programmed to increase in temperature from 70 to 130 °C at 20 °C min⁻¹, then to 300 °C at 4 °C min⁻¹ and held isothermal for 25 min. An approximately 50 m, 0.32 mm internal diameter capillary column with a 0.12 µm thick dimethylpolysiloxane equivalent film. A H₂ carrier gas was used, and quantification was monitored using a hexadecan-2-ol standard added prior to column chromatography. System performance as monitored with an in-house fatty acid methyl ester standard. Alkenone ratios were converted to SST using the global core-top calibration

of Müller et al. (1998). Although this is a linear calibration, our uncertainty treatment (see below) should encompass any minor deviation from linear as $UK'_{37}$ approaches 1 (see also the discussion in Badger et al., 2013b). All alkenone analyses were carried out at the Bristol node of the NERC Life Sciences Mass Spectrometry Facility hosted by the Organic Geochemistry Unit, University of Bristol.

The alkenone isotope δ¹³C value is used to calculate the total carbon isotope fractionation that occurs during algal growth ($ε_p$). This isotopic fractionation has been shown to be controlled by [CO₂(aq)] (Eq. 1; Jasper and Hayes, 1990) which can then be converted to atmospheric CO₂ using Henry's law.

$$ε_p = ε_f - \frac{b}{[CO_2(aq)]} \quad (1)$$

To calculate $ε_p$ from alkenone δ¹³C values, the carbon isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is required; this is calculated from planktic foraminiferal calcite δ¹³C, whilst the fractionation which occurs during carbon fixation ($ε_f$) is assumed constant here. The *b* term is the sum of other physiological factors (such as growth rate, cell size, and light limitation) which is estimated from the relationship shown in the modern ocean between *b* and dissolved reactive phosphate [PO₄³⁻]. Further details of the treatment are detailed in Badger et al. (2013b).

Error bars in relevant figures are all 1 SD and based on a full Monte Carlo propagation (*n* = 10 000) of the following
<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>

**Figure 2.** Atmospheric CO₂ reconstructions through the Plio-Pleistocene. (a) Published boron isotope CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) records from ODP Site 999: open blue circles (Chalk et al., 2017), filled bright blue circles (Foster, 2008; recalculated as described in the text), open grey circles (Bartoli et al., 2011), and filled dark blue circles (Martínez-Botí et al., 2015); and Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 668: filled green circles (Hönisch and Hemming, 2005). (b) Published CO₂(εp-alk) records from ODP Site 925: open maroon squares (Zhang et al., 2013); ODP Site 999: filled red diamonds (Badger et al., 2013a); and ice core records: filled black squares (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1), as well as our new alkenone isotope records from ODP Site 999 (open red diamonds). The lith size-corrected (dashed black envelope) and uncorrected (solid red envelope) data of Seki et al. (2010) are also shown. All records are shown with 1σ uncertainties as described elsewhere. (c) The benthic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope stack (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS; numerals) and terminations (T) indicated.

uncertainties: ±2°C and ±0.1‰ were applied to temperature and foraminiferal calcite δ¹³C (normal probability function (pdf); 2σ error) and ±2 and ±0.1 to salinity and [PO₄³⁻], respectively (2σ; uniform pdf). Uncertainties on alkenone δ¹³C were estimated from replicate runs and calcite δ¹³C from repeat runs of an internal standard. Integrated analytical and calibration uncertainties for alkenone-based temperatures were estimated and conservative estimates of likely variation for salinity and [PO₄³⁻] were used. An 11% error on the slope of b = a[PO₄³⁻] + c was assumed, where a = 116.96 and c = 81.41 (Pagani et al., 1999).

For consistency with the CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) record for this site, we now adjust for the disequilibrium by subtracting the present-day CO₂ surplus and thus recalculate the included values of Badger et al. (2013b) accordingly. SSTs for our new Pliocene data were published in Davis et al. (2013).

## 2.2 Boron isotopes

Boron isotope data were published in Chalk et al. (2017) and are from the same core samples as our alkenone measurements. *Globigerinoides ruber sensu stricto* (white, *n* ~ 200 individuals from 300 to 355 µm) samples were measured for boron isotope composition on Thermo Scientific Neph tune multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) at the University of Southampton ac cording to methods described elsewhere (Rae et al., 2011; Foster et al., 2013; Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). Analytical uncertainty is given by the external reproducibility of re repeat analyses of Japanese Geological Survey Porites coral standard (JCP) at the University of Southampton follow ing Henehan et al. (2013) and is typically <0.2‰ (at 95% confidence). Metal element to calcium ratios (Li, Mg, B, Na, Al, Mn, Ba, Sr, Cd, U, Nd, and Fe) were analysed us ing an Thermo Element 2XR ICP-MS at the University of
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 3.** New and recalculated data for CO₂(εₚ-alk) for the Pleistocene and Pliocene from ODP Site 999. Alkenone δ¹³C values are shown as red circles for the Pleistocene (a) and Pliocene (b), with *G. ruber* δ¹³C from the same samples shown in blue. Alkenone unsaturation-derived SST is shown for the Pleistocene (b) and Pliocene (f). The Pliocene SST data have been previously published in Davis et al. (2013) and are from the same samples as our alkenone δ¹³C values. Calculated εₚ data are for the Pleistocene (c) and Pliocene (g) and atmospheric pCO₂ from CO₂(εₚ-alk) for the Pleistocene (d) and Pliocene (h) (red diamonds). Ice core pCO₂ data are shown for the Pleistocene (black circles) for comparison (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1).</figcaption></figure>

Southampton). Here, these data are used to assess adequacy of clay removal (Al/Ca < 100 µmol mol⁻¹) and to generate down core temperature. pH and CO₂ were calculated using a Monte Carlo approach (uncertainties are 2 SD, *n* = 10 000 replicates) using R (R Core Team, 2015). For pH, we use a boron isotopic composition of seawater of 39.6‰ (2 SD of

0.1; Foster et al., 2010) and experimentally determined isotope fractionation factor (1.027; Klochko et al., 2006), as well as the species-specific calibration for *G. ruber* of Henehan et al. (2013) (also with incorporated uncertainties). For the CO₂ calculations, we use a range of salinity (equal to that used in the CO₂(εₚ-alk) calculations) and total alkalinity
(TA) that encompasses the modern values (34–37 and 2100–2500 µM, respectively, both with a uniform rather than normal probability distribution. Temperature was determined using Mg / Ca of G. ruber following established methods; Dehaney and Boyle, 1985; Evans and Müller, 2012). Mg / Ca SST of planktic foraminifera is used for CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) and alkenone U₃₇K' for CO₂(εₚ–alk) so that the carrier organisms for the CO₂ reconstruction and SST measurements match, ensuring the temperature measurement is coming from the appropriate part of the water column. Inorganic chemical constants were used from the seacarb package in R (Gattuso et al., 2015) and using published values for the pKₐ (dissociation constant for boric acid) (Dickson, 1990). Reconstructed atmospheric CO₂ values from Foster (2008) were recalculated to match this approach. All uncertainties are included in our simulation and are roughly equivalent to those assumed for the alkenone data and are exactly the same as those used for Martinez-Boti et al. (2015), excluding the δ¹¹Bsw, thus providing a fair comparison.

## 2.3 Coccolith length measurements

The uptake of CO₂ into the coccolithophore cell is affected by the cell size and geometry; using alkenones limits the variation of cell geometry by restricting the source organism to one with exclusively spherical cells (Laws et al., 1997; Popp et al., 1998), but some change in cell size is possible. Coccolith size is used as an semi-quantitative proxy for cell size because coccolith size is typically larger on larger cells, with that relationship being broadly consistent within a single taxonomic group where growth behaviour is broadly comparable (Henderiks, 2008; Gibbs et al., 2013; Sheward et al., 2017). Long-axis coccolith length measurements were therefore taken from 100 specimens of the family Noelaerhabdaceae per sample from standard smear slides. Specimens were imaged at 1500× magnification and measured using CellID software.

To investigate the potential influence of changing cell size on CO₂(εₚ–alk), Eq. (1) can be adapted:

$$ε_p = ε_f - \frac{b'}{[CO_{2(aq)}]}. \qquad (2)$$

with b' calculated from using the volume to surface area ratio (V: SA) of modern and fossil coccospheres (Eq. 3; Henderiks and Pagani, 2007):

$$b' = b \frac{V: SA_{\text{fossil}}}{V: SA_{\text{Ehux}}}. \qquad (3)$$

V: SA_Ehux is 0.9 ± 0.1 µm in modern haptophytes (Popp et al., 1998) and V: SA_fossil can be estimated from lith size measurements (Eq. 4; Henderiks and Pagani, 2007):

$$D_{\text{cell}} = 0.55 + 0.88 L_{\text{coccolith}}. \qquad (4)$$

## 2.4 Age model

For the 0–500 ka interval, we generated a detailed age model by tuning the planktic foraminifer (G. ruber) δ¹⁸O record from Site 999 (at ~0.5 to 2.0 kyr resolution) (Schmidt et al., 2006) to the LR04 benthic δ¹⁸O stack (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) using the AnalySeries software (Paillard et al., 1996). The Pliocene portion of Site 999 is part the LR04 stack and that astronomically tuned age model is used here (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005).

## 2.5 Bayesian exploration of CO₂(εₚ–alk) input variables

In order to examine the influence of the various input parameters for the calculation of pCO₂ from alkenone δ¹³C values, we carry out a second set of Monte Carlo simulations (n = 100 000) with expanded uncertainty. In this case, we more fully explore uncertainty space using the following input uncertainties (at 95% confidence or full range): SST (normal distribution, ±6°C), εf (uniform distribution, 24 to 28), b (normal distribution, ±40), and CO₂ disequilibrium (20±20). These input distributions are our prior distributions. We then evaluate the CO₂ output for each alkenone sample against synchronous ice core pCO₂ and boron isotope pCO₂ for the Pleistocene and Pliocene, respectively. By only selecting those simulated alkenone pCO₂ levels that agree with ice core or pCO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) (including associated uncertainties), we can reevaluate the input distributions (our posterior) and gain insights into the relative importance of each of the input variables in potentially driving the observed disagreement in pCO₂. Uncertainties in the pCO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) are as described above, and we apply an uncertainty of ±6 ppm (2 s) for the ice core pCO₂ record (Ahn et al., 2012).

# 3 Results and discussion

Alkenone and G. ruber δ¹³C values (Fig. 3a, e) were used to calculate εₚ values (Fig. 3c, g). Alkenone δ¹³C values are relatively stable through the Pleistocene portion of the record, varying between -24.5‰ and -23.2‰. Values are slightly higher in the Pliocene, varying between -24.1‰ and -21.7‰. G. ruber δ¹³C values are relatively stable through the whole record, varying between 0.53‰ and 1.57‰. These give rise to εₚ values which are similarly fairly stable, varying between 10.5‰ and 12.2‰ in the Pleistocene, and between 9.53‰ and 11.8‰ in the Pliocene. Our U₃₇K' SST (Fig. 3c, g) record shows warmer temperatures in the Pliocene of around 27°C, with cooler temperatures recorded in the Pleistocene, with the coldest SST recorded in the glacial which is ~2°C cooler than the interglacial. These records are combined (see methods section) to produce the pCO₂ record (Figs. 2, 3c, f), which shows largely stable and invariant values through both the Pliocene and Pleistocene portions of our record.
<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 4.** Lith size data for samples used for CO₂ calculations. Pleistocene lith size (a) are from this study, whilst Pliocene (b) values were published previously (Davis et al., 2013) but are from the same samples as our CO₂ estimates. Pleistocene εp (b) are from this study, whilst the Pliocene data are from this study (2.6–2.8 Ma) and from Badger et al. (2013b) (2.8–3.3 Ma). The lower panels show CO₂(εp–alk) for the Pleistocene (c) and Pliocene (f) as red diamonds. The filled diamonds in panel (f) are from Badger et al. (2013b). The Pleistocene ice core data (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1) are shown for comparison in panel (c). The drop in lith size from the Pliocene to Pleistocene is similar to what has been documented previously (Young, 1990). Outliers in panels (a) and (d) were calculated following the 1.5 rule in R (R Core Team, 2015).</figcaption></figure>

Published low temporal resolution Pliocene records from Site 999 (Seki et al., 2010), using both the CO₂(εp–alk) and CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) palaeobarometers, show a pCO₂ decrease at ~2.8 Ma. However, this agreement relies on correcting the CO₂(εp–alk) for changes in haptophyte cell size, which was based on a low temporal resolution lith size record (Seki et al., 2010). Changes in haptophyte cell size alter the volume to surface area ratio available for gaseous exchange and can therefore modify the fractionation recorded by CO₂(εp–alk) (Popp et al., 1998). Our new CO₂(εp–alk) record at Site 999 now spans 3.3–2.6 Ma at higher temporal resolution, supplementing data from Badger et al. (2013b). A lith size

record has also been generated for the same samples used for CO₂(εp–alk) for 3.3–2.6 Ma (Davis et al., 2013). We find no evidence to support the change in lith size applied by Seki et al. (2010) with lith size (and hence cell size) remaining stable across the primary pCO₂ change at 2.8 Ma (Davis et al., 2013). Consequently, although our new CO₂(εp–alk) record is of higher resolution than that of Seki et al. (2010), we no longer have any evidence for the cell size shift at 2.7 Ma (Fig. 4).

We compare our record with the CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) records of Martínez-Botí et al. (2015) in Fig. 2. With the cell size correction now removed, the decrease in CO₂(εp–alk) across the
INHG, and the agreement of CO₂(εₚ-alk) with CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank), both now disappear (red symbols, Fig. 2b). As such, CO₂(εₚ-alk) for this whole Pliocene interval (2.6–3.3 Ma) remains stable and low (mean CO₂(εₚ-alk) = 251 ± 13; 1σ min = 228, max = 286 µatm), whereas CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) is on average higher and more variable (mean CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) = 342 ± 50; 1σ min = 234, max = 452 µatm).

In the Pleistocene, our CO₂(εₚ-alk) record covers one complete glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycle from 110 to 260 ka, encompassing MIS5–7, and the end of MIS8, and terminations II and III (open red diamonds; Fig. 2a). The CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) record of Chalk et al. (2017) covers two G-IG cycles from the late Holocene to MIS8 (open blue circles; Fig. 2a). δ¹¹Bplank closely tracks the rise and fall of pCO₂ derived from ice cores (Chalk et al., 2017), with CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) exhibiting similar values to atmospheric CO₂ within uncertainty (Fig. 2a), and with only small deviations from ice core CO₂ as a result of (i) the noise in the reconstruction and (ii) perhaps a small diagenetic effect on CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) relating to periods of carbonate dissolution in portions of the core which show high foraminiferal fragmentation (e.g., MIS5d; Schmidt et al., 2006).

In contrast, CO₂(εₚ-alk) is within error of the ice core data only during the interglacials when CO₂ partial pressures are similar to those of the pre-industrial era. Crucially, CO₂(εₚ-alk) clearly fails to record the lower pCO₂ of the glacials, remaining at around 260 µatm throughout (mean CO₂(εₚ-alk) = 259 ± 27; Fig. 2a). This concentration of pCO₂ is also very close to that recorded by CO₂(εₚ-alk) in the Pliocene at this site (mean CO₂(εₚ-alk) = 252 ± 26 µatm; Fig. 2). Similar alkenone behaviour has also been observed in another, albeit lower-resolution, record from ODP Site 925 (Zhang et al., 2013; Fig. 2), where the CO₂(εₚ-alk) remains unchanged during the Pleistocene (20–170 ka) and Pliocene.

Overall, these results suggest that, at least at these sites, the CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) palaeobarometer does faithfully record atmospheric CO₂ change, whereas the CO₂(εₚ-alk) proxy is unable to reconstruct the low levels of atmospheric CO₂ during the glacial. This suggests that, in its present and frequently applied form, CO₂(εₚ-alk) is not accurately recording atmospheric CO₂, and this could explain the discrepancy between the Pliocene CO₂(εₚ-alk) and CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) records. We further evaluate this by using regression analysis between ice core and the paired-proxy data (Fig. 5). CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) levels are largely consistent with those determined from ice cores, clustering around the 1:1 line with a slope also close to 1 (0.95 ± 0.13) (Fig. 5a), whereas variance in CO₂(εₚ-alk) is strongly muted compared to that observed in the ice core data (Fig. 5b).

As both cell size (Popp et al., 1998) and growth rate (Bidi-gare et al., 1997) can modify δ¹³Cₐlk via the b term, we investigated whether either of these could explain the muted response of CO₂(εₚ-alk) to atmospheric CO₂. Haptophyte cell size can be estimated from their lith size, but as noted above, there is no evidence for significant changes in the

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

**Figure 5.** Regression analyses of proxy-based pCO₂ with ice core data (a) CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) (Chalk et al., 2017) and (b) CO₂(εₚ-alk) vs. ice core data (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1) for MIS5–8, interpolated in the age domain. Regression lines (in red/blue) are linear fits with 68% and 95% confidence intervals, calculated by boot-strapping the uncertainties in proxy pCO₂ (Monte Carlo method described in the methods section). Uncertainty in the ice core values is by estimated by applying a 3000 uncertainty in the age model during interpolation. Uncertainty envelopes considering data points alone (no bootstrap) are solid lines, with pmax regressions in the thicker, darker colours. A 1:1 line is shown in grey for comparison. Statistical calculations were performed in R (R Core Team, 2015).

Pliocene (Davis et al., 2013) nor is there evidence for any change across MIS5–8 (Fig. 4a). There is an overall reduction in mean lith size from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene (Fig. 4a, b), which could offset a long-term pCO₂ decline and thus explain the apparent lack of difference between Pliocene and Pleistocene CO₂(εₚ-alk) at Site 999 (Fig. 6). However, this longer-term reduction in lith size cannot explain the muted response to Pleistocene G-IG CO₂ change.

Growth rate is more difficult to reconstruct; most available proxy systems reconstruct phytoplankton or whole ecosys-
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 6.** Cell size corrections to CO₂(εp-alk). Ornamentation is the same as Fig. 1, with the addition of cell-size-corrected CO₂(εp-alk). The smaller liths than modern *E. huxleyii* across all of our records mean that a direct application of the method of Henderiks and Pagani (2007) results in substantially lower CO₂(εp-alk) throughout (open orange stars; **c**, **d**). As the main interest is in the effect of the Plio-Pleistocene change in cell size we observe, we adjusted the *b'* term so that CO₂(εp-alk) matched our uncorrected CO₂(εp-alk) record during the last interglacial (filled orange stars; **a**, **b**).</figcaption></figure>

tem productivity, rather than coccolithophorid growth rate. However, emerging trace metal datasets do suggest changing productivity on glacial-interglacial timescales at Site 999, with lower productivity in the glacial (Trumbo, 2015). If lower productivity is linked with a simultaneous reduction in growth rate, then it could explain some of the lack of signal in CO₂(εp-alk); however, to reduce the CO₂(εp-alk) sufficiently to overlap with ice core CO₂ would require an order of magnitude reduction in growth rates during the glacial. This suggests that either our understanding of growth rate effects on CO₂(εp-alk) is incorrect, or the estimation of cell size using preserved liths does not capture original cell size variations, or a combination of these or other factors leads to the rather muted trends in CO₂(εp-alk) through the glacial-interglacial cycle.

The failure of CO₂(εp-alk) from these two sites to record the G-IG pCO₂ variation also necessitates reassessment of earlier CO₂(εp-alk) studies that were able to reconstruct such changes. For instance, whilst Jasper and Hayes (1990) replicated the CO₂ change over the last 100 kyr of the Vostok ice

core from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 619 (Gulf of Mexico) and Bae et al. (2015) are able to replicate the ice core data at a site in the Sea of Japan, records from the Arabian Sea (Palmer et al., 2010), Angola Current (Andersen et al., 1999), and the equatorial Atlantic (Zhang et al., 2013) either fail to record ice core CO₂ or require additional corrections to do so (Fig. 7). It may also be that at some sites, such as at equatorial Pacific MANOP (Manganese Nodule Project) site C (Figs. 1, 7), these records represent changing air-sea disequilibrium (Jasper et al., 1994). Two of these studies interpreted their data using a different εp relationship than later work; when these data are recalculated using the more recent model, the patterns remain unchanged (Fig. 7). What is more, in a global alkenone δ¹³C calibration study (Pagani et al., 2002) aimed at replicating Holocene atmospheric conditions, it was noted that low-latitude (subtropical) sites perform poorly, consistent with our observations. Considering this present study and previously published work, five out of seven late Pleistocene alkenone δ¹³C
<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

**Figure 7.** Recalculated CO₂(εₚ-alk). Previous work (Jasper and Hayes, 1990; Jasper et al., 1994) calculated CO₂(εₚ-alk) using a different model; here, we recalculate the earlier work using the modern methodology and Monte Carlo propagation applied to our other sites. All previous records have been recalculated using the same methodology as our new record, with some corrections and adjustments (for example, for growth rate or lith size) removed to allow direct comparisons. Records are from MANOP site C from the central equatorial Pacific (0°57.2′N, 138°57.3′W; filled green circles; Jasper et al., 1994), DSDP Site 619 in the Pigmy Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico (27°11.6′N, 91°24.5′W; open green circles; Jasper and Hayes, 1990), site 05PC-21 from the Sea of Japan (38.40°N, 131.55°E; open blue triangles; Bae et al., 2015), site NIOP464 in the Arabian Sea (22.15°N, 63.35°E; open orange hexagons; Palmer et al., 2010), site GeoB 1016-3 in the Angola Current (11.59°S, 11.70°E; inverted purple triangles; Andersen et al., 1999), and ODP Site 925 (4°12.25′N, 43°29.33′W; open dark red squares; Zhang et al., 2013). Ice core data are shown as filled black circles and lines (Bereiter et al., 2015 and Table 1). Dashed lines are 2σ uncertainties from Monte Carlo error propagation as described elsewhere in the text.

studies do not show the variations in pCO₂ evident from con-
temporaneous ice core records (Figs. 2, 7).

Our Bayesian approach allows us to explore the
CO₂(εₚ-alk) proxy, as it was mathematically expressed by
Bidigare et al. (1997) and subsequent authors, and test which
variables may be responsible for causing the observed dis-
agreement with the ice core and CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) records given
a largely invariant εₚ for the Pleistocene. Figure 8 illustrates
the prior distributions of the input variables (blue) and an
example posterior for the alkenone sample at 150 ka (red).
As can be seen in this example, selecting only those simu-
lations of CO₂(εₚ-alk) that overlap with the ice core CO₂ for
this time interval shifts the distributions such that an agree-
ment is found when b is lower than the prior, εf tends to be
higher than the prior, and SST and CO₂ disequilibrium are
little different. Figure 9 shows the posterior median and 95 %
distribution of b, εf, and SST for all the samples from the
Pleistocene and Pliocene in time series. Patterns that emerge
are illustrated in Fig. 10, where a negative relationship be-
tween pCO₂ and posterior εf and a positive relationship be-
tween pCO₂ and posterior b and SST are evident. For SST,
it should also be noted that for the Pleistocene the poste-
rior correlates well with the prior, while for the Pliocene it
is significantly elevated (Fig. 10), perhaps suggesting a role
for incorrect SST in driving some of the lack of Pliocene
to Pleistocene change in CO₂(εₚ-alk) observed (Fig. 2). This

SST change would however need to be substantial and go be-
yond the ±2 °C we include in our uncertainty propagation,
and would also potentially influence CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank), further
complicating this finding.

We recognize that the nature of the patterns we observe
here is a function somewhat of the range used for each input
term. The chosen ranges are however conservative, but re-
alistic, assessments of the likely uncertainty associated with
each term. For instance, b±40 encompasses the residual scat-
ter around the relationship between b and [PO4] described by
Pagani et al. (2005). In addition to pointing towards a poten-
tial underestimate of Pliocene SST with the U37K proxy at
ODP 999, this Bayesian treatment supports the assertion that
the current understanding of the CO2(εp-alk) proxy is want-
ing and that the b term may not in fact capture the scaling of
the relevant physiological parameters or those that are truly
important. In particular, it appears that the physiological pa-
rameters packaged in the b term, and potentially the degree
of fractionation upon fixation, εf, are themselves a function
of CO2 or some parameter that correlates with CO2 (e.g.,
temperature, nutrients, growth rate).

As noted above, mean lith size is significantly different
for the Pliocene and Pleistocene. A comparison of our pos-
terior *b* and lith size does reveal a good correlation between
these variables (Fig. 11; *r*² = 0.52, *p* ≪ 0.01), though this is
largely, but not exclusively, a function of the mean change
<figure><img src="image_10.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 8.** Example of the Bayesian treatment of the CO₂(εₚ-alk) proxy; the sample shown is 0.15 Ma from ODP Site 999. In all panels, the prior is shown in blue and the posterior in red. (a) The *b* term, (b) εₜ, (c) the extent of CO₂ disequilibria, and (d) sea surface temperature.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_11.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 9.** Time series of priors and posteriors for the *b* term (**a**, **b**), εₜ (**c**, **d**), and SST (**e**, **f**). The Pleistocene is shown on the panels on the left and the Pliocene on the right. In panels (**a**–**d**), the mean of the prior distribution is shown as a thick black line. For the *b* term, 95% of the input distribution is shown as a dotted line; for εₜ the total range is shown. See Fig. 7 for examples of these distributions as probability functions. For SST (**e**, **f**), the prior is shown as red diamonds, with 95% of the distribution shown as the dashed lines. In all panels, the medians of the posterior distributions are shown as circles, with error bars encompassing 95% of the range.</figcaption></figure>

across the Plio-Pleistocene. Importantly, the observed relationship between *b* and lith size is very different from that described in Henderiks and Pagani (2007), suggesting that if lith size is important, our understanding, at least as laid out in Henderiks and Pagani (2007), is incorrect.

An alternative explanation however could be that the parameterization of physiological factors into the *b* term model is simply flawed in general, or is at least lacking important components. The dominant species producing alkenones in this part of the Caribbean today is *Emiliania huxleyi* (WINTER et al., 2002). *E. huxleyi* first appeared 290 kyr ago but did

not become the dominant Noelaerhabdaceae until ~ 82 ka, when it began to outcompete the closely related *Gephyrocapsa* spp., which in turn took over from *Reticulofenestra* in the late Pliocene (RAFFI et al., 2006; GRADSTEIN et al., 2012). Both our alkenone records are therefore a composite of closely related but distinct Noelaerhabdaceae species, with neither record dominated by *E. huxleyi*. We cannot rule out that there could be physiological differences between the extant *E. huxleyi* species and the alkenone producers for our record. However, the Site 925 CO₂(εₚ-alk) record of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which would been pri-
<figure><img src="image_12.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 10.** Relationships between CO₂ and (a) the b term, (b) εf and (c) SST. In each panel, the median of each posterior distribution is shown in red for the Pliocene and blue for the Pleistocene. Note that the CO₂ for each data point is either from the ice core or CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) for the Pleistocene and Pliocene, respectively. The linear patterns that emerge here essentially represent the relationships of the Bidigare et al. (1997) approach given our otherwise invariant εp.</figcaption></figure>

primarily sourced from *E. huxleyi*, is similarly flat, suggesting that species-specific biosynthesis differences are unlikely to be the whole story. The *Reticulofenestra–Gephyrocapsa–Emiliania* lineage has strong stratigraphic, morphological, and genetic support, with *Emiliania* and *Gephyrocapsa* only recently genetically diverging (Bendif et al., 2016). Likely, these taxa shared the same or similar ecologies. Recent experimental work has shown that this globally important species has evolved a carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM) to respond to limiting CO₂ by upregulating genes at low DIC to maintain carbon requirements (Bach et al., 2013). CCMs result in a breakdown of the relationship

<figure><img src="image_13.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 11.** Comparison between the posterior distribution for the Pliocene (red circles) and Pleistocene (blue circles) and the lith size correction of Henderiks and Pagani (2007) (green dot-dash line).</figcaption></figure>

between εp and CO₂, as defined and calibrated by Bidigare et al. (1997). It has been thought that the increased expression of CCMs will cause εp values to decrease, due to the isotopic offset between CO₂(aq) and HCO₃⁻ and decreased carbon leakage from the cell (Zhang et al., 2013), effectively exacerbating the expected trend towards lower εp values at lower pCO₂ and inconsistent with our observation of relatively stable εp values across G-IG cycles. However, CCMs appear to modulate carbon flow across cellular compartments (e.g., cytosol, chloroplast and calcification vesicle), and could also yield elevated rather than lower εp due to the concentrating of CO₂ at the site of carbon fixation (Bolton and Stoll, 2013). Additionally, as temperature modulates resource allocation between biosynthesis and photosynthesis (Sett et al., 2014), CO₂ optima are species specific and vary with temperature, which may explain why some sites in the region with different dominant haptophyte species are capable of recording G-IG changes whilst others struggle. Furthermore, it has been postulated that changes in carbonate chemistry affect the redox state inside *E. huxleyi* cells which subsequently causes a reorganization of carbon flux within and across cellular compartments (Rokitta et al., 2012). Such a redistribution of inorganic carbon amongst different pathways also likely influences εp and is currently not mechanistically represented by Bidigare et al. (1997) and other models.

## 4 Conclusions

Our data show that the classical application of the alkenone pCO₂ proxy fails to capture glacial-interglacial changes observed in the ice cores. With increased confidence in CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) supplied by that proxy's ability to capture Pleistocene pCO₂ variability, our data also suggest that the discrepancy between CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) and CO₂(εp-alk) in the Pliocene may also be due to problems with CO₂(εp-alk). Emerging insights into coccolithophore CO₂ allocation pathways and their sensitivity to CO₂ and temperature, in con-
junction with our inter-proxy comparisons, indicate that the long-standing CO₂(εₚ-alk) proxy requires major revision and recalibration. If CCMs are preferentially more important for the alkenone palaeobarometer than growth rate, the muted alkenone palaeobarometer response may be limited to the low-CO₂ world of the Plio-Pleistocene and particularly in tropical waters where CO₂(aq) is especially low. By extension, this proxy (and interpretations based on it) likely retains utility at the higher CO₂ levels typical of the early Cenozoic (and at high latitudes where CO₂(aq) is high) where active carbon uptake is less likely (Zhang et al., 2013). This is especially true if haptophyte CCMs only evolved in the Late Miocene as a response to declining CO₂ levels (Bolton and Stoll, 2013). Regardless, the discrepancy between CO₂(εₚ-alk) and ice core CO₂ records indicates that alkenone isotopes in several locations do not faithfully record atmospheric CO₂ at relatively low, Plio-Pleistocene-like CO₂ levels. Furthermore, the muted response of CO₂(εₚ-alk) to [CO₂(aq)] at lower concentrations calls into question the underlying basis of the high climate sensitivities previously reconstructed using this method in the Plio-Pleistocene (Pagani et al., 2009). This, coupled with further evidence of the fidelity of CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) at Site 999, suggests that the climate sensitivities derived from CO₂(δ¹¹Bplank) (which are consistent with climate models used both in palaeoclimate and future climate projections) are more accurate (Martínez-Botí et al., 2015).

**Data availability.** Data are archived on Pangaea (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.899353) (Badger et al., 2019).

**Supplement.** The supplement related to this article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-539-2019-supplement.

**Author contributions.** MPSB and GLF conceived the study (conceptualization). MPSB, TBC, and GLF designed the methodology, carried out data collection, and analysed the data (formal analysis, investigation, methodology). PRB, SJG, HP, and AM performed data collection. PFS finalized the age model (investigation). MPSB wrote the manuscript and prepared figures (visualization, writing – original draft). RDP (PI), GLF, and DNS (CoIs) supervised the project and acquired funding (funding acquisition and supervision). All authors contributed to interpretation, writing, and reviewing the manuscript (writing – review and editing).

**Competing interests.** The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

**Acknowledgements.** This study used samples provided by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP). We thank Alex Hull and Gemma Bowler for laboratory work, Lisa Schön-

born and Günter Meyer for technical assistance, Alison Kuhl and Ian Bull for research support, and Andy Milton at the University of Southampton for maintaining some of the mass spectrometers used in this study. This study was funded by NERC grant NE/H006273/1 to Richard D. Pancost, Daniela N. Schmidt and Gavin L. Foster (which supported Marcus P. S. Badger). We also acknowledge the ERC Award T-GRES and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award to Richard D. Pancost. Gavin L. Foster is also supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. We thank Kirsty Edgar for comments on an early draft of the manuscript, the two anonymous reviewers of this submission, and reviewers through various rounds of review whose comments greatly improved the manuscript. We are grateful to Thomas Bauska for encouraging us to do better at referencing the ice core data, and John Jasper for discussion of the early days of the alkenone palaeobarometer.

**Review statement.** This paper was edited by Luc Beaufort and reviewed by two anonymous referees.

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